Document of The World Bank Report No: 20427-TJ PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON A PROPOSED CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 0.40 MILLION (US$0.47 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN FOR LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT May 18, 2000 Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Sector Unit Central Asia Country Unit Europe and Central Asia Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective February 1, 2000) Currency Unit = Tajikistan Rubles (TR) 1 TR = US$ 0.000696 US$ 1 = TR 1,436 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS A/T Acquisition and transmission m Meter AKDN Aga Khan Development Network MESCD Ministry of Emergency Situations and a.s.l. Above Sea Level Civil Defense BCM Billion cubic meters MS Monitoring System CAS Country Assistance Strategy NCB National Competitive Bidding CIS Commonwealth of Independent States NGO Non-Govenmmental Organization CQ Consultant Qualification NPV Net Present Value CU Central Unit NS National Shopping DALYs Disability-adjusted life year OD Operational Directive EC-IFAS Executive Committee-Intemational Fund PAD Project Appraisal Document for the Aral Sea PIP Project Implementation Plan ECHO European Community Humanitarian PMR Project Management Report Office POE Panel of Experts ERP-PIU Education Reform Project - Project RFP Request for Proposal Irnplementation Unit RU Remote Unit ERR Econornic Rate of Return SA Sarez Agency EWS Early Warning System SECO Swiss State Secretariat for Economic FOCUS Focus Humanitarian Assistance Affairs FRR Financial Rate of Return SOE Statement of Expenditures FSU Former Soviet Union TA Technical Assistance GEF Global Environmental Facility UD Usoi Department GIS Geographic Information System UN/ United Nations/International Decade of GoT Government of Tajikistan IDNDR Natural Disaster Reduction IDA International Development Association US United States IS International Shopping USAID United States Agency for International km Kilometer Development LCS Least Cost Selection WAEMP Water and Environmental Management LSRMP Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project Project Vice President: Johannes Linn Country Manager/Director: Kiyoshi Kodera Sector Manager/Director: Kevin M. Cleaver Task Team Leader/Task Manager: Alessandro Palmieri TAJIKISTAN LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT CONTENTS A. Project Development Objective Page 1. Project development objective 2 2. Key performance indicators 2 B. Strategic Context }. Sector-related Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) goal supported by the project 2 2. Main sector issues and Government strategy 3 3. Sector issues to be addressed by the project and strategic choices 4 C. Project Description Summary 1. Project components 5 2. Key policy and institutional reforms supported by the project 7 3. Benefits and target population 7 4. Institutional and implementation arrangements 7 D. Project Rationale 1. Project alternatives considered and reasons for rejection 8 2. Major related projects financed by the Bank and other development agencies 9 3. Lessons learned and reflected in proposed project design 9 4. Indications of borrower commitment and ownership 10 5. Value added of Bank support in this project 10 E. Summary Project Analysis 1. Economic 11 2. Financial 12 3. Technical 12 4. Institutional 13 5. Environment 15 6. Social 16 7. Safeguard Policies 18 F. Sustainability and Risks 1. Sustainability 18 2. Critical risks 19 3. Possible controversial aspects 20 G. Main Credit Conditions 1. Effectiveness Condition 20 2. Other 20 H. Readiness for Implementation 20 I. Compliance with Bank Policies 21 Annexes Annex 1: Project Design Summary 22 Annex 2: Project Description 27 Annex 3: Estimated Project Costs 32 Annex 4: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Summary 33 Annex 5: Financial Sunimary 37 Annex 6: Procurement and Disbursement Anrangements 38 Annex 7: Project Processing Schedule 45 Annex 8: Documents in the Project File 46 Annex 9: Statement of Loans and Credits 47 Annex 10: Country at a Glance 49 MAP(S) IBRD 30783 TAJIKISTAN LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT Project Appraisal Document Europe and Central Asia Region Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Date: May 16, 2000 Team Leader: Alessandro Palmieri Country Manager/Director: Kiyoshi Kodera Sector Manager/Director: Kevin M. Cleaver Project ID: P067610 Sector(s): VM - Natural Resources Management Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan (SIL) Theme(s): Rural Development Poverty Targeted Intervention: N Project Financing Data [1 Loan 1 Credit FI Grant El Guarantee [:Other (Specify) For Loans/Credits/Others: Amount (US$M): $0.47 Proposed Terms: Standard Credit Grace period (years): 10 Years to maturity: 40 Commitment fee: 0.5 Service charge: 0.75% Financing Plan: Source Local Foreign Total GOVERNMENT OF TAJIKISTAN 0.17 0.00 0.17 IDA 0.28 0.19 0.47 GOVERNMENT OF SWITZERLAND 0.00 2.90 2.90 GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED STATES 0.00 0.25 0.25 AGA KHAN DEVELOPMENT NETWORK 0.30 0.20 0.50 Total: 0.75 3.54 4.29 Borrower: THE GOVERNMENT OF TAJIKISTAN Responsible agency: SAREZ AGENCY MINISTRY OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS AND CIVIL DEFENSE Address: Av. I M. Tursun Zade, 3 Contact Person: Mr. Anvarjon Abdulloev, Director Sarez Agency Tel: (7-3772) 23-18-78 Fax: (7-372) 21-22-44 Email: sarez@tajik.net Estimated disbursements (Bank FYIUS$M): FY 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Annual 0.17 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.04 Cumulative 0.17 0.31 0.38 0.43 0.47 Project implementation period: 5 years (2 years investments and 3 years operation and maintenance) Expected effectiveness date: 10/01/2000 Expected closing date: 12/31/2005 OCS PAD Form: Rev March, 2000 A. Project Development Objective 1. Project development objective: (see Annex 1) The primary objective of the proposed Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project (LSRMP) is to help alert and prepare vulnerable people in case of a disaster associated with an outburst flood from Lake Sarez and other frequent natural hazards such as mudslides, rockfalls, avalanches, and seasonal floods. The project will build national capacity to plan, coordinate, promote and implement sustainable mitigation and preparedness activities for Lake Sarez. Specifically, the project will assist in: (i) enhancing the current monitoring system of Lake Sarez and establishing a community-based early warning system; (ii) enhancing prevention, mitigation and preparedness capabilities of communities at risk; (iii) preparing a long-term strategy to deal with the risks and resources associated with Lake Sarez; and (iv) strengthening national capacity. This project represents an initial, fast-track operation of modest size compared with the magnitude of the problem, and will address the immediate needs of the communities at risk in Tajikistan, while seeking longer-term solutions to this complex issue. 2. Key performance indicators: (see Annex 1) Progress towards the project objective will be measured by the following key indicators: * Proportion of vulnerable communities in the Bartang and Murgab Valleys with disaster management plans as well as responsibilities and procedures agreed upon by community leaders and villagers, responsible government authorities and interested NGOs. * Proportion of vulnerable communities able to contact authorities within minutes of disaster onset. - Number of safe havens and evacuation routes identified and established. e Government and NGO personnel have adequate know-how and equipment to predict the occurrence of a disaster and to respond effectively when the disaster occurs. * Increased dialogue and financial support for Lake Sarez disaster mitigation and prevention issues through new partnerships with the international and scientific community. B. Strategic Context 1. Sector-related Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) goal supported by the project: (see Annex 1) Document number: 18075-TJ Date of latest CAS discussion: 06/25/98 The proposed project is consistent with two CAS goals: Assisting the most vulnerable. The CAS includes provisions to support the "extremely poor" and "destitute." Although provisions to mitigate natural hazards disaster affecting the poor are not explicity mentioned in the CAS, the proposed project will assist the most vulnerable groups in Tajikistan, which are located in isolated mountainous areas and lacking adequate shelter. The project will directly target the "People of the Pamir" living in villages situated along the Bartang, Murgab and Kudara river deltas and terraces. The social component of the project will support commnunity development of these isolated parts of the civil society of Tajikistan by promoting community participation not only for the mitigation of Lake Sarez hazard but also for the management of the other frequent natural disasters in the region. In February 2000, the Governrment of Tajikistan requested Bank assistance to address natural disaster management issues at the national level. The LSRMP represents a first and concrete step in this direction. - 2 - Strengthening institutions. The CAS calls for provision of technical assistance, including training, to enhance the capacity of the public agencies. The proposed project will strengthen disaster mitigation capacity of the Ministry for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense (MESCD) to deal with Lake Sarez. 2. Main sector issues and Government strategy: Formation of Lake Sarez and the nature of the problem. The territory of Tajikistan is very prone to natural hazards, and Lake Sarez is among the most dangerous of such hazards. The Lake Sarez was created in 1911 when a landslide of 2.2 billion cubic meters (BCM), caused by an earthquake in the Parnir Mountain range, blocked the Murghab River Valley. The landslide buried the Usoi village with its inhabitants. The landslide dam was given the name of that village. The river soon rose and formed a lake approximately 60 kilometers (km) in length and containing close to 17 BCM of water, roughly half the size of Lake Geneva or three times the size of Lake Shasta (Califomia). During its fonnation, the lake submerged the village of Sarez which gave the name to the water body. The natural dam is located at an altitude of over 3200 meters (m). With a height of 550 to 650 m, and a length of about 2 km, it is the highest of any dam, both natural and man-made, in the world. Available reports on Lake Sarez describe the Usoi obstruction as a colossal dam of questionable stability and suggest that if a strong earthquake occurs in the vicinity of the lake, the dangerous "right bank", a partially collapsed body of earth and rock with a mass of roughly 2 BCM, could fall in the lake, generating an enormous wave which would over-top the natural dam and possibly wash it away. The generated flood could affect up to 5 million people living along the Bartang, Pyandhz, and Amu Darya rivers, a path traversing Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. ,Current monitoring system and warning system. In 1988, the Former Soviet Union (FSU) installed an early warning system based on data transmission via satellite designed to alert Moscow and Dushanbe of an outburst flow from Lake Sarez. The system was developed to warn the inhabitants of the lower reaches of the Amu Darya Basin, but not the population in the Bartang Valley living below the lake. The system is no longer operational. The warning instruments have been abandoned, and the only warning system in place at the moment is a radio that links the lake and Dushanbe. The current monitoring system of the Lake Sarez consists of two hydrometric stations located on the Bartang river and one of its tributaries. When the flood levels rise above pre-determined waming elevations, the system sends an automatic signal to the Usoi Master Station via cable connection, which is then forwarded via satellite to Dushanbe. During surmer, and occasionally in winter, a team of Tajikistan scientists reside at the lake with the responsibility of infonning the authorities in the event of a flood via a radio link. In addition, the team also performs visual monitoring of the unstable slope of the right bank of the lake. The major deficiencies with the current monitoring system and warning system are that: (i) visual monitoring cannot provide reliable early waming system; (ii) the radio link connection is unable to alert the village in time to allow for evacuation in the event of a flood; (iii) the automatic system for the detection of water levels in the rivers is too far from the downstream outflow; and (iv) the old satellite connection system is not free from complications and current connection is not continuous. In the event of a major flood, the existing system would fail to alert the population in time. In addition, the lack of a proper monitoring system prevents the study of the behavior of the lake, and therefore limits the possibility of defining a long-term disaster mitigation strategy or to build prevention priorities at present. Disaster preparedness at the community level. Organized disaster preparedness at the community level is a recent innovation in Tajikistan. In past decades in FSU countries, disaster preparedness involved classified studies. Disaster management authorities would open sealed orders if the disaster occurred. At the end of the 1990s, NGOs in Tajikistan started to develop methods for organizing and assisting community-level disaster preparedness, but still they are not extensively used. - 3 - Government and donor community efforts to deal with Lake Sarez problem. The Government of Tajikistan is committed to reduce the threat posed by Lake Sarez. In 1995, a Resolution was adopted calling for the development of an integrated program to bring Lake Sarez into a secure state. Some efforts have been made since then towards assessing the magnitude of the problem and identifying mitigation measures. With the support of the donor community, a risk assessment mission of Lake Sarez was conducted in June 1999. The mission concluded that a complete or even partial collapse of the Usoi landslide dam and its devastating impacts are very unlikely. The assessment found, however, that the threat of collapse of the right bank (although of smaller magnitude than previously believed) remains an unfortunate reality. Even a medium sized surge wave overtopping the dam could affect the entire population of 19,000 people living in the Bartang valley and could possibly extend beyond the town of Rushan and affect the towns and villages along the Pyandhz river where about 130,000 people live. The mission also identified a set of measures to mitigate the hazard, and confirmed that the most urgent action to address Lake Sarez problem is the installation of a monitoring system linked to an early warning system to alert the most vulnerable communities. The mission recommendations, which formed the basis for the development of the LSRMP project, were fully endorsed by the President of Tajikistan. 3. Sector issues to be addressed by the project and strategic choices: The proposed strategy for Bank and donor assistance on Lake Sarez will address the immediate needs while seeking longer-term solutions to the complex Lake Sarez problem. The LSRMP project will address the following issues: Lack of solid knowledge and understanding on the behavior of the Lake Sarez system. The previous section clearly shows that there is a knowledge gap on the behavior of Lake Sarez. The monitoring system to be established under this project would allow to study the behavior of the overall Lake Sarez system (landslide, lake and dam), and to develop the knowledge needed to define a long-term strategy to deal with the problem. The focus on operation and maintenance needs will strengthen the sustainability of the system. Weak institutions at the central and regional levels to plan and respond to a disaster of the scale of the potential of Lake Sarez flood. Although the government has undertaken some steps to organize a disaster management agency, the institutional capacity is still weak. The recently established Sarez Agency (within the MESCD), with an overall mandate to coordinate the activities on Lake Sarez, has limited capacity to carry out its responsibilities The proposed project will address this issue by providing direct training and equipment, and by having local experts work together with international and regional experts. The training will involve also other units of the MESCD, such as the Usoi Department (currently responsible for operation of the existing warning system) and the Territory and Population Protection Department. Lack of preparedness of communities at risk. The level of education of the people of the Bartang valley is remarkably high. Thus, given the alertness, understanding, and willingness to respond, there seems to be excellent prospects for introduction of an early warning system. People at risk are ready to accept capacity building for community participation in disaster mitigation and disaster response which has already started, on a pilot basis, by intemational and local NGOs. The current project seeks to strengthen the capacity of local communities to undertake preparedness and prevention activities. -4 - C. Project Description Summary 1. Project components (see Annex 2 for a detailed description and Annex 3 for a detailed cost breakdown): The LSRMP will include four components: (i) the design and installation of a monitoring system (MS) and an early warning system (EWS); (ii) the strengthening of local communities on emergency preparedness plan and the provision of safety-related supplies; (iii) the preparation of a study on long-term solutions; and (iv) the strengthening of the Sarez Agency and other units within the Ministry of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense. Indicative Bank- % of Component Sector Costs % of financing Bank- .________________________ _ .(.US$M) Total (US$M | financing A. Monitoring and Early Warning Natural 2.50 58.3 0.00 0.0 Systems Resources A. l Design and technical assistance Management A.2 Equipment supply, installation, training and spare parts A.3 Panel of experts B. Social Training and Safety-Related Natural 0.75 17.5 0.00 0.0 Supplies Resources B. 1 Technical assistance Management B.2 Safety-related supplies C. Studies on Long-term Solutions Other 0.40 9.3 0.00 0.0 Environment D. Institutional Strengthening Institutional 0.64 14.9 0.47 100.0 D. I Project management Development D.2 Equipment D.3 O&M costs of monitoring and early warning systems Total Project Costs l 4.29 100.0 0.47 100.0 Total Financing Required 4.29 100.0 0.47 100.0 The following paragraphs provide a brief description of each component including cost estimates: Component A. Monitoring and Early Warning Systems (Total: US$2.5 million, SECO: US$2.5 million). The objective of this component is to design and install a monitoring system and an early waming system, which are essential to safeguard the life of the communities located in the Murgab and Bartang valleys and to define a long-term strategy for Lake Sarez. Comprehensive, well-designed, and functioning monitoring and early warning systems would allow to monitor the behavior of the Lake Sarez system in real time, to alert the vulnerable communities and competent authorities before the occurrence of life threatening conditions, and to develop knowledge management tools for assessing disaster prevention measures (long-term objective). Technical assistance to be funded by the Government of Switzerland include: consultant services for the design and installation of the monitoring and early warning systems and for operational assistance over a period of three years after installation; training for Tajikistan technicians, scientists and local communities - 5 - in the operation and maintenance of the systems; and equipment needed for the monitoring system at the lake, and the early warning system in the villages of the Murgab and Bartang valleys, covering about 19,000 inhabitants. For these villages the warning system will be automatic, based on satellite or radio links. The Government of Switzerland will also provide financial support to the Government of Tajikistan to retain a panel of experts to provide an independent and high level technical evaluation of the plan of actions to mitigate the risk of the Usoi Dam and of Lake Sarez during the implementation of the project. Component B. Social Training and Safety-Related Supplies (Total: US$0.75 million, AKDN: US$0.50 million, USAID: US$0.25 million). The objectives of this component are to make the early warning system community-based and to help communities to prepare for a potential outburst flood from Sarez as well as for smaller-scale natural disasters that occur frequently in the project area. These objectives will be achieved by conducting a human geographic/demographic investigation, including information of the population (about 130,000 people) living along the upper Panj River (about 540 km from Sarez to Moskovakiy). Activities will include: raising awareness of vulnerable communities; conducting training at regional and village levels on community participation, emergency preparedness, evacuation and survival, and maintenance and operation of the early warning systems; building capacity of NGOs and government agencies to rescue survivors; establishing local responsibility and accountability for the early warning system; and organizing inter-village relations; supplying means of communications to strategic villages. Communities in remote mountain valleys will establish areas called "safe havens" -- where evacuees could survive until they are rescued. Detailed design of the "safe havens" is under preparation, but it is anticipated that they will contain radios, durable emergency shelter materials, and chemicals to make water potable. The Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) and the United States Agency for Intemational Development (USAID) will finance consultancy services, communication and rescue equipment, vehicles, extension equipment, and will also facilitate the provision of basic safety-related supplies to upgrade the "safe havens." Component C. Study of Long-term Solutions (Total: US$0.4 million, SECO: US$0.4 million). Implementation of structural measures such as the reduction of the water level, structural modifications of the Usoi dam to raise its lowest freeboard, and/or strengthening the landslide dam are needed in order to prevent occurrence of a major disaster. Such engineering solutions may be extremely costly but are the only real way of reducing the threat that Lake Sarez poses. The project will fund the preparation of a pre-feasibility study to critically review and integrate the past studies, and to rank available options that would make Lake Sarez an environmentally sustainable lake for current and future generations. The Government of Switzerland will finance consultancy services to review past studies and design concepts on Lake Sarez, carry out complementary desk studies (e.g., assessment of different access routes to the lake, digital terrain modeling, inundation studies, wave generation and propagation, mechanisms of dam over-topping, sediment accumulation rate, seepage through the lake, etc.), screen altemative options for disaster prevention, and formulate recommendations on long-term solutions. The studies will also outline possible scenarios for developing the natural resource represented by Lake Sarez. Component D. Institutional Strengthening (Total: US$0.64 million, IDA US$0.47 million, GoT US$0.17 million). The newly created Sarez Agency will be responsible for managing and coordinating the activities under the proposed project. Operation and maintenance of the monitoring and early-warning systems to be set up under the proposed project, will be the responsibilities of the MESCD. The unit within the MESCD that will be responsible for such tasks will be defined in the course of the project, based on the results of the training activities. This component will finance consultancy services (for project audit, fmancial/procurement support, operation and maintenance of monitoring and early warning systems), equipment, and operating costs to strengthen the capabilities of the Sarez Agency, the Usoi Department, -6 - and the Territory and Population Protection Department. The project will also finance the incremental operating costs related to project management until June 30, 2002 (i.e., the incremental expenses incurred by the Sarez Agency on account of implementation of the LSRMP, including salaries of incremental staff/specialists to the Sarez Agency, workshops/seminar logistics expenses, fuel, vehicle insurance and inspection, office and vehicle maintenance and repair, transportation expenses to the lake, access path expenses, office consumable) and operating and maintenance costs of the monitoring and early warning systems (i.e., the incremental expenses incurred after July 01, 2002, by the new unit in charge of the operation and maintenance of the monitoring and early warning systems, including staff salary, transportation expenses to the lake, satellite connection fee, satellite check connection fee, office consumable, fuel, vehicle insurance and inspection, office and vehicle maintenance and repair). The latter will be financed on a sliding scale starting from 75 percent in the first year, 50 percent in the second year, and 25 percent in the third year of the operation of the systems. 2. Key policy and institutional reforms supported by the project: This project will assist the Government of Tajikistan in the development and implementation of sustainable mitigation and preparedness activities for Lake Sarez. The project will achieve its objective by establishing an efficient monitoring system and a community-based early-warning system, strengthening institutional capabilities at the central, regional and local levels to properly operate and maintain the systems, and enhancing community-level's response capacity to natural disasters. 3. Benefits and target population: About 130,000 people who live in the communities located in the Murgab, Bartang and Upper Panj River valleys that are considered highly vulnerable to direct destruction by the potential outburst flood from Sarez are the target population. The project area falls in the Gomo Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast, which is known to be the poorest region in Tajikistan. The significant benefit of this project will be improved ability of poor people to take mitigation measures for reducing casualties and hasten recovery from the potential outburst flood and from the less catastrophic, but higher probability, natural disasters to which the target population is vulnerable (earthquakes, landslides, floods, destructive rain, severe winters, epidemics). Another benefit of the project is the development of significant institutional capacity within the MESCD and local NGOs. Information generated through this project and the lessons learned from its implementation will be valuable to develop a long-term strategy for Lake Sarez, which will eventually benefit about 5 million inhabitants at risk located in Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. 4. Institutional and implementation arrangements: Implementation period. The bulk of the project activities will be completed within the first two years. However, the project will also provide support during the following three years of operation of the monitoring and early warning systems in order to develop a finn foundation in technical capacity for the sustainable implementation of the systems. Executive agency. The MESCD will be responsible for project implementation. The Minister (or designated Deputy Minister) will provide Government oversight. The Sarez Agency (SA) within the MESCD has full authority to manage and administer any program related to Lake Sarez, including this project. The Sarez Agency was established on October 15,1999, under Government Resolution #419. Project implementation and coordination: The SA will be responsible for technical coordination and daily administration of the project, and will provide logistical support for implementation. The responsibility for overseeing the procurement and financial management of the LSRMP will be with the - 7 - Project Implementation Unit of the Education Reform Project (ERP-PIU), funded by another IDA Credit (Cr.3214-TJ), at least during the first six months of the project or until adequate capacity has been created within the SA for these tasks. The ERP-PIU has experience and expertise in the areas of procurement and financial management, and has in place an acceptable financial management system. The SA will coordinate with the Govemment of Switzerland and the Aga Khan Development Network, in the implementation of components that will be supported through parallel financing. Quarterly meetings among the donors will be convened in the World Bank Country Office to receive briefings from the SA on the progress of the project. A Project Implementation Plan (PIP) has been prepared satisfactory. The PIP describes the proposed implementation arrangements in more detail. D. Project Rationale 1. Project alternatives considered and reasons for rejection: Undertake longer preparation including site investigations. The design of a monitoring system should ideally be based on a comprehensive site investigation campaign, including boreholes, geophysical surveys, in-situ permeability and shear strength tests, laboratory tests, among others. Under normal conditions, comprehensive site investigation campaigns tend to reduce uncertainties to acceptable engineering limits. Because of the long lead time to carry out a meaningful site investigation campaign for a problem of the magnitude of Lake Sarez, this altemative was rejected. However, the monitoring system has been conceived in such a way that it would provide information of the same nature as an investigation campaign would have produced. A relatively large scope of the monitoring system was judged more advantageous than embarking in a long and uncertain site investigation process. This option will also have the advantage of showing real results on the ground, instead of additional studies. Structural versus non-structural measures. A problem like Lake Sarez poses formidable difficulties from a technical and a planning points of view. The amount of financial resources which would be required to address the issue in purely structural terms would be large and the implementation time long. At the other end, the problem is obviously of an emergency nature. Intemational experience with hazard management programs in other countries has shown that this disconnect is constantly present. In the case of Lake Sarez, the disconnect is magnified by the scale of the problem. The Usoi dam is more than twice higher than the highest man-made dam in the world. Therefore, matching emergency with the relatively long lead times required for rehabilitation works represents a key issue. Intemational experience has shown that this conflict can be efficiently mitigated by the optimization of an implementation program based on a mix of both structural and non-structural measures. In the case of Lake Sarez, no structural measure can be implemented in reasonably short time, and therefore a project involving structural measures was rejected. Consequently the project's components are all non-structural measures. At the same time, the studies on long-term solutions (Component C) would allow to coordinate actions for preventing the disaster to occur. Addressing Lake Sarez through ongoing operations versus a self-standing operation. An attempt was made to expand Component C on the Safety of Dams Component of the ongoing GEF Aral Sea Basin Water and Environmental Management Project to include the components of the LSRMP. This attempt failed because these components do not respond to GEF guidelines. The LSRMP was therefore conceived as a separate operation. Close coordination between the two projects is necessary. -8 - 2. Major related projects financed by the Bank and/or other development agencies (completed, ongoing and planned). Latest Supervision Sector Issue Project (PSR) Ratings _________________________________ ._________________________ (Bank-financed projects only) Implementation Development Bank-financed Progress (IP) Objective (00) Monitoring and early warning system Nepal Power Sector S Improvement Efficiency Project (Cr.2347) (completed) Monitoring and early warning system GEF Water and Environmental S S Management Project - Aral Sea Basin Program (TF020417) (ongoing) Dam safety Dam Safety Project - India S S (Cr.2241/Ln.3325) (ongoing) Dam safety Irrigation Dam Safety Project- S S Armenia (Cr.3260) (ongoing) Other development agencies Pilot disaster preparedness training for ECHO (European Community vulnerable communities of the Bartang Humanitarian Office); Aga Valley Khan Development Network (UK) and Focus Humanitarian Assistance (Dushanbe). Completed January 2000 Community-based early warning system IDNDR - Early Warning Flood System - Costa Rica (completed) IP/DO Ratings: HS (Highly Satisfactory), S (Satisfactory), U (Unsatisfactory), HU (Highly Unsatisfactory) 3. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design: The lessons from these and other projects suggest that: (i) Non-structural measures can be implemented more rapidly and at a lower cost than the structural ones. In the light of disaster prevention, the former should not be regarded as a substitute for the latter. A sound safety program should balance structural and non-structural measures. Non-structural measures can play an important role in mitigating the impact of a disaster. They also play a fundamental role in assuring sustainability of any rehabilitation work. -9- (ii) In order to prevent a disaster from happening, structural measures are required. Therefore a study is necessary that would critically review and integrate the past studies to come out with a ranking of the options to make Sarez an environmentally sustainable lake. (iii) No engineering solution for mitigating the risk in the short term is going to work if awareness and preparedness of the people at risk is not adequately promoted. This will be addressed by the social component, which will play a central role in the project. (iv) In planning an emergency response to a potential flood, it is critical that those villages that may survive, either in whole or in part, be identified and incorporated in the planning as intermediate "safe havens" to which flood survivors may go to await outside assistance. (v) The implementing agency must be strengthened to enable it to respond to a disaster of the scale of the potential Lake Sarez flood. Such a capacity building effort will have to be parallel to that being developed at local conmmunity level, under the social component, and fully integrated with it. (vi) In view of the complexity of the Lake Sarez problem, it is considered necessary that the Government of Tajikistan appoints a Panel of Experts (POE) to review, steer and advise on the implementation of the project. The POE should be retained by the GoT to act as a high level advisory group on future interventions that the Republic of Tajikistan, with the support of the international community, will pursue in relation to the Lake Sarez problem. 4. Indications of borrower commitment and ownership: Indications of commitment for dealing with the Lake Sarez problem have been expressed in repeated requests to the intemational donor community by the Government at the highest levels. The President of Tajikistan has personally requested support from the Bank. The foundation for the project was established during the June 1999 multi-agency mission to Lake Sarez, whose recommendations were fully endorsed by the President of Tajikistan. The Govemment has created the Sarez Agency (SA) within the MESCD to carry out activities related to Lake Sarez, and has earmarked US$25,000 for LSRMP during calendar year 2000. The counterpart funds required for the implementation of the project were agreed with the Govemment of Tajikistan during the appraisal mission. 5. Value added of Bank support in this project: This operation is consistent with the Bank's mission "to reduce poverty and improve living standards through sustainable growth and investment in people." An important part of this mission is providing assistance to prepare for and recover from natural disasters that can result in great human and economic losses. The Bank can play an important role in establishing partnerships with the international and scientific community and in coordinating donors' contributions. The LSRMP has emerged from the regional studies carried out in connection with the Aral Sea Basin Program. The problem of Lake Sarez was first brought to the attention of the Bank in March 1997 during the preparation of the Dam Safety Component of the Aral Sea Basin Program. Subsequently, a small sub-component on Lake Sarez was included in the GEF Water and Environrmental Management Project (WAEMP), which was approved in May 1998. The present project expands the scope of the WAEMP sub-component to achieve self-standing and sustainable objectives. Co-ordination between the GEF project and the LSRMP has started during project preparation. The successful implementation of this project should serve to provide valuable lessons learned for replication within the Aral Sea Basin and in other CIS countries. - 10 - E. Summary Project Analysis (Detailed assessments are in the project file, see Annex 8) 1. Economic (see Annex 4): 0 Cost benefit NPV=USS million; ERR = % (see Annex 4) * Cost effectiveness 0 Other (specify) The project is expected to generate substantial benefits in terms of reduced vulnerability to natural hazards (either the high-magnitude, low-frequency event as represented by an outburst flood from Lake Sarez, or the low-magnitude, high frequency events such as rockfalls and seasonal floodings, which are common in the project area). This project relates entirely with the protection of human lives and the reduction in the number of lives lost. It will directly benefit about 130,000 people located in the Bartang and along the Tajik side of the Panj river (Rushan Region of the Gorno-Badakstan Autonomous Oblast) by improving their alertness and preparedness to natural disasters. A substantial portion of the project cost will go to protect the population most at risk, about 19,000 inhabitants living in the Bartang valley just below the lake, by providing them with an early waming system based on an automatic protocol. The project will also generate substantial indirect benefits by reducing the uncertainty associated with the hazard from Lake Sarez and by generating the basic information and producing the technical capabilities used in the decision-making process for responding to the challenge of Lake Sarez, thus indirectly benefiting the populations of Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan (about 5,000,000 people) located in the Amu Darya river basin downstream from the lake. On the basis of the cost-effectiveness analysis, this project is found to be a cost effective means of protecting the lives of the poor. The analysis used the cost-per (statistical)-life-saved and the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved as measures to assess the cost worthiness of the investment. The former indicator is used by some government agencies to assess safety measures (not necessarily associated with dams). The cost-per (statistical)-life-saved for this project was found to be in the order of US$232. The best comparison for this value would be the cost of an alternative life protection program or the extra compensation required by workers in Tajikistan to undertake risky jobs. However, this comparison is limited by the availability of reliable data. In the absence of this informnation, a comparison was carried out on the basis of international benchmarks. The U.S. Federal Government practice in financing "Life-Protecting-Programs" considers the justification of such programs as "Very Strong," when the cost per life saved is less than US$3 million. In this particular case, the project will invest four orders of magnitude less than the minimnum threshold considered by the U.S. Federal Government for a "Very Strong" justification of the investment. Just for reference, values of a (statistical)-life saved based on extra compensation of workers in the United States vary from US$1.0 million to US$8.0 million. The cost per DALY saved for this project, based on rough estimates of the potential reduction in deaths (about 18,570), the probability of the outburst flood from Lake Sarez (estimated at 5% and consistent with the value given to an event considered "very unlikely"), and the number of lost DALYs represented by the death of one person (about 23), was found in the order of US$ 194. A country specific comparison is also limited by the availability of detailed cost-effectiveness studies in the country -- i.e., this could be monitored when the Primary Health Care Project (Cr.3324-TJ) starts producing such information. The cost per DALY saved for this project, however, is in line with the range acceptable under the standards established in the 1993 World Development Report (i.e., less than US$250 per DALY saved). - 11 - 2. Financial (see Annex 5): NPV=US$ million; FRR = % (see Annex 4) No detailed financial analysis was undertaken since the LSRMP is a non-revenue generating project. The objective of the overall project of saving lives through an early warning system, timely evacuation and appropriate participation of the community may not be achieved if the Government of Tajikistan does not commit adequate resources for the operation and maintenance of the monitoring and warning systems. The project will finance operation and maintenance costs for three years on a declining basis. The project will be co-financed with two grants from the Govermnent of Switzerland, one for US$1.7 million equivalent on a joint co-financing basis and another for US$ 1.2 million equivalent on a parallel co-financing basis; a grant from the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) of $500,000; and a United States Government grant of $250,000. The latter two grants will be channeled through Focus Humanitarian Assistance (FOCUS). All funds for the project have been secured. The Internal Board of Decisions of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has already accepted to finance the project. The USAID through its Bureau of Humanitarian Response under the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance has already made its funds available to FOCUS. The AKDN's funds, which would also be channeled to FOCUS, have also been confirmed. Fiscal Impact: Total government financing during the project implementation period is estimated at $170,000. Of the total project cost (US$4.29 million), about 5 percent represents recurrent costs for the monitoring and early warning systems. The annualized operation and maintenance costs have been estimated at around $80,000 or 2% of overall investment cost. These costs will be financed by the project on a declining basis: 75% first year, 50% second year, and 25% third year. The fiscal impact of the project is expected to be around 0.005 percent of GDP. 3. Technical: The technical design of the project was conceived during the June 1999 multi-agency risk assessment mission to Lake Sarez. The key findings of the mission were that: (i) a complete or even partial collapse of the Usoi dam is very unlikely; (ii) the overall stability of the darn is considered to be high as a result of the dam's huge volume of mainly blocky material with high internal friction factors, and the flat slopes upstream and downstream; and (iii) the threat of collapse of the right bank, while smaller than previously believed, is still real. The hazard risk assessment carried out during the mission revealed the urgency of establishing an efficient monitoring system and an early warning system. The mission also concluded that existing knowledge is adequate to design a suitable early warning system (EWS) without the need of substantial additional studies. Possible development of unexpected failure mechanisms that would render the EWS partially or totally inadequate will require further complementary studies. One of the main challenges of the project is to design and install the monitoring and early waming systems that are suitable to the remoteness and harsh environment conditions of the project site. Another challenge of the project is to build local capacity to operate and maintain the systems once installed. Capacity of local experts will be strengthened during the project. In addition, a technical manual on the operation and maintenance of the monitoring and early waming systems will be prepared by the intemational consultants recruited under the project. The manual will be used by the MESCD after completion of the project. - 12- Given the complexity of the Lake Sarez system, a Panel of Experts consisting of highly qualified independent experts would be engaged to provide an independent high level technical evaluation of the plan of actions to mitigate the risk of the Usoi Dam and of Lake Sarez during the implementation of the project. 4. Institutional: 4.1 Executing agencies: The Ministry of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense (MESCD) through the Sarez Agency (SA) will be responsible for project implementation. A key contribution of this project will be capacity building at various departments of the MESCD both in terms of carrying out the project and supporting a long-term program for Lake Sarez. The SA has full authority to manage and administer any program related to Lake Sarez, including this project. The scope of activities assigned to the SA extend beyond the scope of the LSRMP. For example, the SA has responsibility for scientific research and construction of works, management of tourist traffic to Lake Sarez, supervision of the construction of a road to Lake Sarez. However, no construction activity is expected in the short- or medium-term. The SA has a large number of staff, about 20 between high level and support level staff, however they are not prepared for the implementation of the project. Measures have been taken during project preparation to strengthen the SA for implementing the LSRMP. 4.2 Project management: Management responsibilities related to this project will be handled by a core group of staff of the SA. They will deal with the daily management, monitoring, administration and technical coordination of the project. This core group of staff will comprise: the Sarez Agency Director (civil servant), a Scientific Advisor (consultant), a Project Manager (consultant), an Administrative Officer (consultant), and a Data Management Specialist (consultant). In addition, the SA will be able to contract external local consultants when required. Such resources will include experts from the Institute of Seismology (Dushanbe), Tasjikglavgeologia, Hydrometeorological Committee, Barki Tajik Civil Construction Committee, among others. The Project Implementation Unit of the Education Reform Project (ERP-PIU) will provide support to the SA in the areas of financial management and procurement until adequate capacity has been created in the agency for these tasks. The ERP-PIU has skilled staff who can handle the financial management and procurement responsibilities and accounting aspects related to the LSRMP. A contract arrangement has been signed between the SA and the ERP-PIU for this purpose. The SA will employ an Administrator Officer, who will liaise with the ERP-PIU, and will receive on-the-job training on financial management and procurement procedures. (A detailed description of this arrangement is described in the PIP). Two other departments of the MESCD will also participate in the project. The Usoi Department (UD), which currently operates the existing warning system in the Bartang valley and has received training in emergency management, will participate as follows: (i) cooperating with the international consultant in the design of the systems; (ii) assisting in the installation, testing and commissioning of the systems; and (iii) training. The Territory and Population Protection Department will receive GIS training through the project. The Project Manager of the SA will be responsible for the coordination among the three units. The structure of the SA, for the implementation of the LSRMP, is presented below. During the first two years of project implementation, the GoT will provide an annual budget to the SA to cover operating expenses such as utilities, salary of support staff, rental of office space, and other - 13 - miscellaneous expenses. After the installation of the monitoring and early warning systems, the GoT will also provide an annual budget to cover the associated operating and maintenance expenses on an increasing basis: 25 percent first year, 50 percent second year, and 75 percent third year of their operation. In order to ensure donor coordination, which is considered essential for the successful implementation of the project, project's co-financiers have agreed to conduct joint supervision missions. |NMinistry of Emergency Situations and| SAREZ AGENCY Usol Department .__Director . Territory and * Coordination of all activities related to Lake Saz Department External Specialists LSRMP CORE GROUP * Scientific Ad-isor Panel of Experts * Project Manager PIU Education Project * Administrator OMcer (Financial Management and * Data Management Specialist Procurement Support) Component A Component B Component C Component D Monitoring and Early Warning Social Training and Provision of Study on Long-Term Institutional Strengthening of Systems Safety-Related Supplies Solutions Sarez Agency e Design, procure equipment and Prepare disaster management * Review past studies and * Strengthen capacity of Sarez install systems. plans. database on Lake Sarez. Agency. * Coordinate with Component B. - Train communities, Govemment Carry out additional desk Training and capacity building. * Training of Sarez Agency agencies, NGOs on disaster studies. * Operation and maintenance of personnel and select villages. prevention, mitigation and * Identify disaster prevention monitoring and early warning preparedness. options. systems. * Identify safe-heavens. * Seek views of stakeholders. 4.3 Procurement issues: Tajikistan is a high risk country from the public procurement point of view. Any weaknesses that may exist in the country's procurement legislation have been mitigated for this project by the use of the ERP-PIU, which already has experience in Bank procurement procedures. Nevertheless, the prior review thresholds recommended for this project are those applicable to a high risk country. Procurement arrangements are described in Annex 6 and the PIP. The Administrator Officer will receive on-the-job training on procurement procedures. Based on an assessment of the ERP-PIU, the project is not suitable for PMR-based disbursement. - 14 - 4.4 Financial management issues: The overall responsibility for the financial management of the project will rest with the ERP-PIU until adequate capacity has been created in the SA. A contract arrangement has been drafted between SA and ERP-PIU for this purpose. SECO and FOCUS have agreed to provide quarterly financial reports in a format acceptable to the Bank. Detailed arrangements are under preparation. The ERP-PIU has already been certified to meet the Bank's minimum financial management requirements. The SA has already recruited an Administrative Officer, who will liaise with the ERP-PIU. An action plan has been prepared to build up financial management capacity in SA and a full transfer of responsibilities will be considered by December 31, 2000. The financial management capacity within Tajikistan has not been the subject of a detailed review by the Bank. However, primarily because of other implementation considerations, any weaknesses that may exist in the financial management capacity within Tajikistan have been mitigated for this project by the use of the ERP-PIU for financial management, drawing upon its experience of Bank project implementation, and of international auditors for the audit of the project. In addition, weaknesses in the Tajikistan banking sector will be mitigated by the use of a commercial bank deemed eligible by the Bank to hold the project's Special Account. The agreed indicative formats for the Project Management Reports (PMRs) were agreed during negotiations. The agreed initial PMRs will be produced by April 15, 2001, and quarterly thereafter. Project funds will be initially disbursed under the Bank's established procedures, including Statements of Expenditures (SOE). A move to PMR-based disbursements will be made at the mutual agreement of the Government and the Bank, and will be considered once the PIU is familiar with the project monitoring aspects and is considered able to produce sufficiently timely and reliable project management information. A change to PMR-based disbursements will be considered by June 30, 2002. External audits by independent private auditors acceptable to the Bank, and on terms of reference acceptable to the Bank (which have already been drafted) will be performed over the life of the project. The project's auditor will place reliance on the work of the auditors of FOCUS and SECO in conducting the audit of the project. The results of the audit of the project will be available within six months of the end of the fiscal year and the cost of the audit will be financed by the Credit. The appointment of the project's auditor is a condition of project effectiveness and the appointed auditor will be retained, subject to satisfactory performance, for the life of the project. 5. Environmental: Environmental Category: C (Not Required) 5.1 Summarize the steps undertaken for environmental assessment and EMP preparation (including consultation and disclosure) and the significant issues and their treatment emerging from this analysis. Overall, the project is environmentally beneficial or neutral. The Lake Sarez itself is a potential environmental catastr6phe. The project aims at mitigating the risk of a potential environmental catastrophe and, at the same time, exploring options to turn the hazard into a valuable natural resource. As such, it is negatively correlated with the environmental impact concept. The project only includes non-structural measures. Therefore, no physical impacts are expected during project implementation. Since Lake Sarez is completely within the territory of Tajikistan, the OP 7.50 on International Waterways does not apply in this project. The Government of Tajikistan is continuously informing the neighboring countries (Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan) about the consequences of a potential outburst or - 15 - uncontrolled water releases from Lake Sarez. This has been done at all levels, including international workshops and conferences. 5.2 What are the main features of the EMP and are they adequate? Not applicable 5.3 For Category A and B projects, timeline and status of EA: Date of receipt of final draft: Not applicable Not applicable 5.4 How have stakeholders been consulted at the stage of (a) enviromnental screening and (b) draft EA report on the environmental impacts and proposed environment management plan? Describe mechanisms of consultation that were used and which groups were consulted? Not applicable 5.5 What mechanisms have been established to monitor and evaluate the impact of the project on the environment? Do the indicators reflect the objectives and results of the EMP? Not applicable 6. Social: 6.1 Summarize key social issues relevant to the project objectives, and specify the project's social development outcomes. The project is expected to support community development of isolated parts of the civil society of Tajikistan by promoting community participation not only for the mitigation of Lake Sarez hazard, but also for the management of other frequent natural disasters in the region. The June 1999 multi-agency risk assessment mission to Lake Sarez conducted a socio-economic assessment of the population living along the Bartang valley and part of the Panj River. The attitude of the inhabitants to the threat posed by Lake Sarez, and their ability and/or willingness to follow warnings from an early warning system were also assessed by the mission. These field investigations reveal that the level of education of the people in the Bartang valley is remarkably high. Thus, given the alertness, understanding, and willingness to respond, there appear to be excellent prospects for introduction of an early warning system. Another important finding of the investigations is that the sense of belonging to their "homeland" is very high: the people in general want to stay in their mountain valleys. Recent studies carried out by FOCUS reveal that indigenous people make up most of the target population for the project. The social studies and training activities to be carried out under this project will address indigenous issues in an integrated way, covering socio-economic, production system, gender, land tenure, and natural resources management. These assessments and the participatory approach envisaged for the monitoring and early warning systems will take into account all the elements required to empower the People of the Pamirs in a manner that is consistent with their social demand and cultural preferences. Participation of the communities in project activities will be entirely voluntary and those communities that do not want to participate will not be affected by the project. Ongoing activities to strengthen the capacity of these local communities carried out by local NGOs reveal that communities are very enthusiastic to take part in the implementation of the project. - 16 - Due to the fact that indigenous people (People of the Pamir) represent most of the project's beneficiaries, the project as a whole is considered an "Indigenous People Development Plan" for the purpose of OD 4.20. The non-structural measures supported under this project will not touch the social structure or culture of the populations. Instead, the LSRMP will heavily rely on the values of the People of the Pamir for its success. The proposed project does not include any involuntary relocation of populations, or modification of property rights as a consequence of the installation of the mitigation measures. This was ruled out by the findings of the June 1999 mission to Lake Sarez. 6.2 Participatory Approach: How are key stakeholders participating in the project? Stakeholders identification begun during the pilot activities carried out by FOCUS during 1998-1999. The primary beneficiaries of the proposed project are the vulnerable communities (about 130,000 inhabitants in Tajikistan) located in the Murghab and Bartang valleys and along the Tajik side of the Panj valley, together with the emergency management professionals at the central and local levels, and local NGOs (i.e., Man and Nature, Fidokor, Kuhiston, National Red Crescent Society) concemed with the Lake Sarez problem. The above-mentioned pilot activities have allowed to promote the participation of affected and concerned groups including community organizations, vulnerable conmmunities, local governments, department of the MESCD, local NGOs and international humanitarian agencies in the proposed project. The series of workshops at the provincial, district and community levels have allowed to motivate and enable stakeholders to take ownership of the planning process, and to begin developing local capabilities for effective rescue and recovery assistance, and for community self-help during and after the potential disaster. Local NGOs have also expressed their readiness to develop methods for organizing and assisting community-level disaster preparedness and for implementing community training for natural disasters. Other stakeholders are the government bodies in charge of disaster prevention, primarily the MESCD at the central, oblast and local levels, and other Central Asian States (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, potentially Afghanistan) who will benefit from the body of information that the monitoring system will collect data on the safety conditions of the lake and its development. 6.3 How does the project involve consultations or collaboration with NGOs or other civil society organizations? The LSRMP will place special emphasis on involving collaboration with NGOs and beneficiaries, and building capacity of local NGOs in natural disaster mitigation, preparedness and prevention. NGOs will play a key role in project implementation to ensure sustainability and effectiveness of the monitoring and early warning systems. 6.4 What institutional arrangements have been provided to ensure the project achieves its social development outcomes? The social development essentially focuses on the involvement of beneficiaries in project implementation. The project, through Component B, provides for extensive involvement of the targeted communities in project implementation. - 17 - 6.5 How will the project monitor performance in terms of social development outcomes? The project is expected to establish a permanent and effective communication-based risk mitigation program for Lake Sarez. Specific performance indicators include: (i) effective and fimctioning community-based early waming system; (ii) number of comnmunities, NGOs and professional staff trained on effective disaster mitigation, preparedness and prevention; (iii) number of communities identified as "safe havens" well-prepared to play their planned role; and (iv) number of "safe havens" established. 7. Safeguard Policies: 7.1 Do any of the following safeguard policies apply to the project? Policy Applicability 1 Environmental Assessment (OP 4.01. BP 4.01. GP 4.01) 1 Yes El No Natural habitats (OP 4.04. BP 4.04 GP 4.04) OI Yes Z No O Forestry (OP 4.36, GP 4.36) El Yes 1 No El Pest Management (OP 4.09) l Yes Z No O Cultural Property (OP 11.03 LI Yes Z No 1 Indigenous Peoples (OD 4.20) Z Yes El No l Involuntary Resettlement (OD 4.30) LI Yes Z No 1 Safety of Dams (OP 4.37. BP 4.37) Yes LI No El Projects in Intemational Waters (OP 7.50, BP 7.50. GP 7.50) LI Yes 1 No L Projects in Disputed Areas (OP 7.60. BP 7.60. GP 7.60) EL Yes Z No 7.2 Describe provisions made by the project to ensure compliance with applicable safeguard policies. Compliance with OP 4.01 on Environmental Assessment does not require any follow up. The project will not touch the social structure or culture of the populations. Therefore, the project will be in compliance with OD 4.20 on Indigenous Peoples. Compliance with OP 4.37 on Safety of Dams will be ensured by the appointment of the Panel of Experts financed under the project. F. Sustainability and Risks 1. Sustainability: The GoT is committed up to the level of the President to the proposed project, and has assured its strong support. Project sustainability will be enhanced by: (i) supporting operation and maintenance costs of the monitoring and early warning systems on a declining basis during the first three years of their operation; and (ii) by strengthening the capacity of the implementing agency and the communities at risk. The long-term sustainability of the project will be determined by: (i) the adequate and timely budget allocation to cover operation and maintenance costs of the monitoring and early warning systems; and (ii) the communities' willingness and commitment to participate in the implementation of disaster preparedness plans. -18 - 2. Critical Risks (reflecting assumptions in the fourth column of Annex 1): Risk Risk Rating Risk Minimization Measure From Outputs to Objective Development of unexpected modes of M Government hires a panel of experts to advise. failure. Support additional studies within the overall program, but outside the LSRMP. Extend monitoring system. Lack of funds to commission future M Bank will play a catalytic role in mobilizing studies. further donor support. From Components to Outputs 1. Timely implementation. Delays in M Process to procurement consulting services for equipment installation because of the design (funded under SECO) begins as soon as winter period. the project is negotiated. 2. Effective team work. Whether or not S Keep a close supervision jointly with civil servants and consultants in the Sarez co-financiers. Hold quarterly meetings between Agency can work together. the SA and co-financiers in the Bank's Country Office to assess and steer the project. 3. Operational problems. Monitoring M Risks of instabilities of the lake system system conceived as fully automatic due (landslides, incoming flows) are mainly the to remoteness of site and the need to associated with snowmelting during the spring link it to an early warning system. Its and summer seasons. Therefore, risks are functionality will depend on proper expected to be lower during the winter season. maintenance, which can be problematic during winter seasons. 4. Faulty alarm system. False alarms M Preparedness programs included under during the initial period of operation may components A and B will include informnation on generate disbelieve on people. the likelihood of false alarms 5. Sustainability of results. Lack of S Create expertise within the MESCD to operate national technical capacity to operate and and maintain the systems. New skills developed maintain the monitoring system and the under the project will enhance future income early warning system. Ability to recruit earning potential of staff. Commit Government and retain highly qualified staff during to previde long-term support for O&M. Future and after project. Lack of funds for grant financing/lending will be tied to operation and maintenance after the sustainable use systems. Empower and train project. communities to take charge for the operation and maintenance of early warning system. Overall Risk Rating M Risk Rating - H (High Risk), S (Substantial Risk), M (Modest Risk), N(Negligible or Low Risk) - 19- 3. Possible Controversial Aspects: The only apparent controversial aspect at this stage is the possibility of creating tension among staff of the Sarez Agency because of the difference in salaries between civil servants and consultants. This will be closely monitored during supervision. G. Main Credit Conditions 1. Effectiveness Condition (i) The Government will have deposited the equivalent of US$15,000 (fifteen thousand US dollars) in the project account as the Government's counterpart cash contribution for CY2000 and first semester of CY2001; (ii) Agreements with SECO and AKDN (project's co-financiers) and FOCUS (implementing agency of Component B) negotiated and signed; and (iii) Auditor acceptable to the Bank will be selected and appointed. 2. Other [classify according to covenant types used in the Legal Agreements.] Audits and Accounts: Standard auditing covenants will apply. Management The Sarez Agency would be maintained and adequately staffed. Counterpart Funds The Government of Tajikistan will make provisions in the Annual National Budget for the counterpart funds required for the implementation of the project. Monitoring, Review and Reporting: (i) Standard reporting covenants will apply; and (ii) Sarez Agency would report to the Bank on a half yearly basis the status of agreed key monitorable indicators. H. Readiness for Implementation 1 1. a) The engineering design documents for the first year's activities are complete and ready for the start of project implementation. 1z 1. b) Not applicable. Z9 2. The procurement documents for the first year's activities are complete and ready for the start of project implementation. - 20 - 3. The Project Implementation Plan has been appraised and found to be realistic and of satisfactory quality. 0 4. The following items are lacking and are discussed under loan conditions (Section G): The additional actions also confirm the readiness for implementation of the proposed project: (i) detailed cost estimates for all components have been agreed during the appraisal mission; (ii) strengthening of the Sarez Agency has already started with funds available under Component C (Dam and Reservoir Management) of the GEF Water and Environmental Management Project (WAEMP); (iii) agreements have been reached on the terms of reference for the Components (A and C), and on the scope of work of Components B (social); (iv) the Project Manager and Administrator Officer have been selected; (v) an agreement between the SA and the ERP-PIU has been signed; (vi) the members of the Panel of Experts have been selected and will be appointed following project approval; and (vii) SECO has already started the procurement of the consulting services for Components A and C. 1. Compliance with Bank Policies E 1. This project complies with all applicable Bank policies. D 2. The following exceptions to Bank policies are recommended for approval. The project complies with all other applicable Bank policies. LOtAlessandro Palmieri eMCleaveryoshi Kodera Team Leader Sector Manager/Director Country Manager/Director -21 - Annex 1: Project Design Summary TAJIKISTAN: LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT Key Performance Hierarchy of Objectives Indicators Monitoring & Evaluation Critical Assumptions Sector-related CAS Goal: Sector Indicators: Sector/ country reports: (from Goal to Bank Mission) Assisting the most vulnerable. Acknowledgment that National statistics on Reducing vulnerability to mountain communities' occurrence of natural disasters natural disasters contributes to Strengthening institutions. vulnerability to natural and impacts. alleviate poverty. disasters has been reduced and that Government and NGOs Formal and informal personnel responsible for assessments from the donor disaster management are community and capable to assist communities international/local NGOs. to respond effectively when disasters occur -22 - Key Performance Hierarchy of Objectives Indicators Monitoring & Evaluation Critical Assumptions Project Development Outcome / Impact Project reports: (from Objective to Goal) Objective: Indicators: To help alert and prepare .o.o. Project supervision reports. Improved capacity to deal with vulnerable people in case of a Monitoringt or and earl owanln the Lake Sarez problem will disaster associated with an osm thoatwo and ee oem. Monitoring activities of the reduce the risks of losses of outburst flood from Lake know how to use them. Sarez Agency. the most vulnerable and Sarez and other frequent Proportion of vulnerable poorest populations. natural hazards such as communities able to Surveys of communities at mudslides, rockfalls, implement disaster risk. avalanches, and seasonal management plans and to floods. contact authorities within minutes of disaster onset. Govemment and NGO personnel are able to predict the occurrence of a disaster and to respond effectively when the disaster occurs. Increased dialogue and financial support for Lake Sarez disaster mitigation and prevention issues through new partnerships with the international and scientific community. -23 - Key Performance Hierarchy of Objectives Indicators Monitoring & Evaluation Critical Assumptions Output from each Output Indicators: Project reports: (from Outputs to Objective) component: Current monitoring system of Monitoring system and early Supervision by Govemment commitment to Lake Sarez enhanced and a warning system funded under Bank/cofinanciers staff and implement participatory community-based early the project properly installed consultants. approaches for disaster warning system established, Projedand functioning. mitigation in Lake Sarez, to waming system established. Project mid-termm review and work together with NGOs, to Govemment personnel trained final evaluation. provide the necessary funds to in the operation and cover O&M needs. maintenance of the monitoring and early waming systems. Early waming system designed according to agreed disaster management plans Prevention, mitigation and Proportion of vulnerable Supervision by Govemment remains preparedness capabilities of communities in the Bartang Bank/cofinanciers staff and committed to provide effective communities at risk enhanced. and Murgab Valleys with consultants. operation and maintenance of disaster management plans, Pee monitoring system and responsibilities and procedures Project mid-term and final early waming system. agreed upon by community Local comuit leaders and villagers, and Local commuie toes rema responsible govemment committed to routine responsible government ~~~~surveillance of early warning authorities and interested system. NGOs. Number of communities and proportion of community members conducting disaster drills soon after training. Twenty communities, 5 NGOs, 10 staff from the MESCD, 15 local aid and support groups trained on effective disaster mitigation, preparedness and prevention. Ten communities identified as "safe havens" well-prepared to play their planned role. Ten "safe havens" and evacuation routes identified and established. Information updated and database established. -24 - Report with recommendations Pre-feasibility report issued Consultant's report. Continued donor commitment on alternative disaster to support the implementation prevention measures prepared. of the proposed recommendations. Planning and management Establishment of a unit within Supervision by Sarez Agency maintains an capacity of the Sarez Agency the MESCD that operates and Bank/cofinanciers staff and appropriate budget improved maintains the monitoring and consultants early warning systems. Project mid-term review and Ten staff of the MESCD final evaluation. trained in Operation and Maintenance of the monitoring and early warning systems. Ten staff of the MESCD trained in planning and management of medium- and long-term mitigation activities for Lake Sarez. -25- Key Perfonnance Hierarchy of Objectves Indicators Monitoring & Evaluation Critical Assumptions Project Components I Inputs: (budget for each Project reports: (from Components to Sub-components: component) Outputs) Component A. Monitoring US$2,500,000 Inputs will be monitored and All significant modes of System and Early Waming evaluated through regular and failure are detectable by the System disbursement reports. monitoring system. Component B. Social Training US$750,000 Targeted communities and Safety-Related Supplies participate in early waming system and O&M of the monitoring system. Component C. Study on US$400,000 Consensus is reached among Long-term Solutions stakeholders on the most efficient and effective long-term solutions Component D. Institutional US$640,000 Counterpart funding is Strengthening sufficient and timely. Sarez Agency hires and retains qualified personnel to effectively O&M of the system. Institutional capacity can be developed within project timeframe. -26 - Annex 2: Project Description TAJIKISTAN: LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT The Hazard: The Usoi landslide dam, named after the village of Usoi which was completely buried by the slide in 191 1, has a total volume estimated at approximately 2 billion cubic meters (BCM), with a maximum height above the original valley floor of between 500-700 meters (m). A lake quickly formed behind the Usoi dam, rising at a rate of approximately 75 m per year during the first few years. Lake Sarez is now over 60 kilometers (km) in length, with a maximum depth in excess of 500 m and a total volume of approximately 17 BCM. Today, the surface of the lake is more than 3200 m above sea level (a.s.l.), surrounded by peaks rising to more than 6000 m a.s.l. At present, the lake surface is approximately 50 m below the lowest point on the crest of the Usoi dam, and the water level is rising at an average of 20 centimeters per year, based on the most recent measurements. Usoi is the highest dam, natural or manmade, on earth. In a worst-case scenario, a catastrophic outburst flood from Lake Sarez would destroy the villages and infrastructure in the Amu Darya basin between the Lake and the Aral Sea, a distance of over 2000 km, inhabited by more than 5 million people. The Usoi dam and Lake Sarez have been the subjects of observation and technical studies for several decades. These studies, conducted primarily by Russian and Tajik scientists, and discontinued at the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union, were directed primarily toward analyses of the geotechnical and hydrological aspects of the Usoi dam, Lake Sarez, and the adjacent mountain slopes. A warning system was developed, designed to alert Moscow and Dushanbe to an outburst flood from the lake. Little attention was given to the safety of the people living in the river valley downstream from the lake. Few of the results of these studies were generally available to scientists or govemment officials in the West until the breakup of the Soviet Union. Even today, most of the information gathered describing the geotechnical environment of the dam and lake is archived in Moscow and Dushanbe in govenmment institutes and agencies that may be virtually nonfunctional. This makes the task of developing a proper perspective on the problem difficult for international disaster management experts. A catastrophic outburst flood from Lake Sarez would have intemational implications. Depending upon the distance traveled by such a flood in the Bartang-Panj-Amu Darya river system, and the magnitude of such a flood, those portions of the countries of Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan located along the river valley are potentially at risk. In the event of such a flood, large irrigation systems, on which the economies of several of these countries are based, could be destroyed. This makes the potential for a flood one of the major concerns uniting the countries of the region, and solutions at any scale should be approached in this light. The geographic region in question includes parts of Northem Pakistan and Northeastem Afghanistan. It is defined by some of the highest mountain ranges on earth - the Pamir, Tien Shen, Karakoram and Hindu Kush Mountains - and by the problems the mountains cause in terms of the social, economic, and political isolation of the peoples living in them. The topographic complexity and general inaccessibility of these large mountain ranges, coupled with the many political and economic problems associated with the transition from Soviet control, also create problems for the development-assistance community. The political, social, and economic marginalization of mountain peoples make it difficult to design assistance programs while working through a central government in a distant lowland. In addition, the complex, three-dimensional environmental mosaic of large mountain ranges makes the application of generic solutions difficult, and their success problematical. - 27 - The Lake Sarez problem requires an effective strategy of hazard prevention and hazard mitigation. The proposed project addresses both through its four components: (i) the design and installation of a monitoring system (MS) and early warning system (EWS); (ii) the strengthening of local communities on emergency preparedness plan and the provision of safety-related supplies; (iii) the preparation of a study on long-term solutions; and (iv) the strengthening of the Lake Sarez Agency. The following sketch shows the synergetic correlation of the hazard prevention and hazard mitigation activities and the extent of the LSRMP The thick-border boxes show actions pertaining to the LSRMP. LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION STRATEGY I HAZARD PREVENTION HAZARD MITIGATION MOJR N PREPAREDNESS STRUCTURAL EFFECTIVE EARLY MEASURES WARNING SYSTEM LONG-TERM MONITORING OF SLOPE AND DAM STABILITY, AND OF THE HYDROLOGIC REGIME Source: J. Hanish, UN/IDNDR Mission Report, June 1999. By Component: Project Component I - US$2.50 million Component A. Monitoring an Early Warning Systems. The objective of this component is to design and install a monitoring system and an early warning system, which are essential to safeguard the life of the communities located in the Murgab and Bartang valleys and to define a long-term strategy for Lake Sarez. Comprehensive, well-designed, and functioning monitoring and early warning systems would allow to monitor the behavior of the Lake Sarez system in real time, to alert the vulnerable communities and competent authorities before the occurrence of life threatening conditions, and to develop knowledge management tools for assessing disaster prevention measures (long-term objective). Proposed activities under this component include: -28- A.1 Design, technical assistance and training (USSO.8 million) To help Tajikistan to deal with Lake Sarez problem, the Government of Switzerland will finance consultancy services for the preparation of the detailed design of the monitoring system and early warning system, and for the preparation of tender documents for the procurement, manufacturing, supply, installation and commissioning of the two systems. Under this sub-component, training and technical assistance would also be provided to the Sarez Agency during the implementation of the project, and for the initial 3 years of operation of the control system. A.2 Equipment supply, installation, training and spare parts (US$1.5 million) The Government of Switzerland will co-finance the equipment needed for the monitoring system of the lake, and the early warning system in the villages most at risk of the Bartang and Murgab valleys (about 19,000 people) as well as their installation. The equipment will be procured on the basis of the detail design and tender documents prepared under the previous sub-component. The supplier of the equipment, would also be responsible for the minor civil works required for the installation, for carrying out training activities of the Sarez Agency during project implementation, and for providing specialized assistance in the operation and maintenance of the systems during the first 3 years of operation, including the provision of spare parts. Conceptually, the design of the control system should be based on three elements: * Monitoring System (MS): to provide suitable data (instrumentation readings) to characterize the phenomena under observation; * Early Warning System (EWS): capable of alerting the vulnerable communities and the competent authorities with adequate lead time before the occurrence of life threatening conditions; and * MS/EWS Interface (scientific support): key knowledge management tool for the interpretation of the data provided by the MS and the development of an interpretative model, by means of risk scenarios. The MS will control the behavior of the overall system (landslide/lake/dam) by tracking those instrumentation readings that are representative of the phenomena evolution: displacements, hydraulic conditions, seismic activity, meteorological and environmental factors, etc. The automation of the MS is considered an obligatory condition in the case of Lake Sarez because: a) the quantities to be acquired are numerous and the sensors will be placed in inaccessible areas; b) the MS will trigger an alarm system (EWS) for civil protection purposes. The MS will include the following measurements: (i) water level of the lake, in order to detect annual oscillations and to monitor the impact waves caused by rock falls into the lake; (ii) profile of the crest of the Usoi dam, in order to monitor its settlements, with particular regard to the minimum freeboard area; (iii) displacements of the right bank landslide, in particular, those of the partially collapsed body (0.9 km3) and, possibly, of some other parts of the largest, potentially unstable, slope (2 km2); (iv) seismic activity in the lake Sarez area; and (v) downstream outflow, in order to monitor the relationship between the through-flow and the levels of the lake; the measurements should include suspended sediments. Three independent meteorological stations will also be established: two at the level of the lake, and one in the outflow area. The above mentioned measurements will be carried out at 3 remote units, in the lake area. This is considered a minimum initial arrangement, that could grow, in the future, based on the findings of the monitoring campaign and the corresponding interpretation. The future units are beyond the scope of the LSRMP. The individual sensors of the MS will be connected to the data acquisition and transmission (A/T) system of the Remote Units (RU) via cable or radio (to be assessed). The RU will be connected, via satellite or via Meteor Burst technology (to be assessed), to the Central Unit (CU) in Dushanbe. The CU will manage the data acquisition and recording system. Measurements will be acquired - 29 - at a pre-established rate which should be altered at will at any given time. The CU will be connected via computer to a specialized processing data base which, with the help of mathematical modeling techniques, will allow for both the updating of the safety management of the territory and the improvement of the EWS. At the same time, a preliminary EWS, based on a representative set of scenarios of the dangerous developing conditions, will have to be installed. The EWS units and the related homs located in 15 villages of the Bartang Valley will be automatically connected to the CU and to the RU by satellite phones. The warning units will be equipped with oriented antennas, solar panels and batteries. In the occurrence of dangerous events, two different levels of sound will be emitted by the waming horns: "get ready" and "run away" to pre-identified safety zones. A3 Panel of Experts (US$0.2 million) In view of the complexity of the Lake Sarez problem, it is considered necessary that the Government of Tajikistan appoints a Panel of Experts (POE) to review, steer and advise on the implementation of the project. The Government of Switzerland will provide financial support to allow the POE to act as a high level advisory group to the Government of Tajikistan during the implementation of the project. Five members for the POE have already been selected by the Government of Tajikistan. All proposed members are acceptable to IDA. National, regional and international expertise is reflected in the POE. The POE encompass all disciplines required to handle a problem like Lake Sarez. The POE is expected to visit Tajikistan 6 or 7 times for a period of 7 - 10 days each visit, during the 5 years of project duration. Project Component 2 - US$0.75 million Component B. Social Training and Safety-Related Supplies. The objectives of this component are to make the early warning system community-based and to help communities to prepare for a potential outburst flood from Lake Sarez as well as for smaller-scale natural disasters that occur frequently in the mountains. These objectives will be achieved by conducting a human geographic/demographic investigation, including information of the population (about 130,000 people) living along the upper Panj River (about 540 km from Sarez Lake to Moskovakiy). Activities will include: raising awareness of vulnerable communities; conducting training at regional and village levels on community participation, emergency preparedness, evacuation and survival, and maintenance and operation of the early warning systems; building capacity of NGOs and government agencies to rescue survivors; establishing local responsibility and accountability for the early warning system; and organizing inter-village relations. Communities in remote mountain valleys will establish areas called "safe havens" -- where evacuees could survive until they are rescued. Detailed design of the "safe havens" is under preparation, but it is anticipated that they will contain radios, durable emergency shelter materials, food staples, and chemicals to make water potable. The Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will finance consultancy services, communication and rescue equipment, vehicles, computers and software, and will also facilitate the provision of basic safety-related supplies to the most vulnerable populations located in the Murgab and Bartang valleys in order to upgrade the "safe havens." Project Component 3 - USS 0.40 million Component C. Study of Long-term Solutions. Prevention of a disaster from happening requires implementation of structural measures. Possible measures include reduction of water level, structural modifications of the dam to raise its lowest freeboard, and/or strengthening the landslide dam. Such engineering projects will be costly but are the only real way of reducing the threat that lake Sarez poses. Therefore a pre-feasibility study is necessary to critically review and integrate the past studies and to rank options to make Sarez an environmentally sustainable lake. The Government of Switzerland will finance consultancy services to review past studies and design concepts on lake Sarez, carry out complementary desk studies (e.g., assessment of different access routes to the lake, digital terrain-modeling, inundation - 30 - studies, wave generation and propagation in the lake, mechanisms of dam overtopping, sediment accumulation rate, seepage through the lake, etc.), screen altemative options for disaster prevention, and formulate recommendations on long-tern solutions. This work will be carried out by the same consultant selected to carry out the design of the monitoring and of the early warning system. Project Component 4- US$0.64 million Component D. Institutional Strengthening. The newly created Sarez Agency will be responsible for managing and coordinating the activities under the proposed project. This component will finance consultancy and equipment to strengthen the capabilities of the SA and other units within the MESCD, as well as the incremental operating costs associated with project management. Operating and maintenance costs of the monitoring and early warning systems will be financed under this component but on a declining basis starting from 75 percent in the first year, 50 percent in the second year, and 25 percent in the third year of their operation. The operation and maintenance of the monitoring and early-warning systems (to be set up under the project) will be carried out by a unit within the MESCD, which will be defined during project implementation. - 31 - Annex 3: Estimated Project Costs TAJIKISTAN: LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT Local Foreign Total Project Cost By Component US $million US $million US $million A. Monitoring and Early Warning System 0.00 2.35 2.35 B. Social Training and Safety-Related Supplies 0.28 0.42 0.70 C. Studies on Long-term Solutions 0.00 0.38 0.38 D. Institutional Strengthening 0.40 0.17 0.57 Total Baseline Cost 0.68 3.32 4.00 Physical Contingencies 0.03 0.16 0.19 Price Contingencies 0.04 0.06 0.10 Total Project Costs 0.75 3.54 4.29 Total Financing Required 0.75 3.54 4.29 Local Foreignt Total ProjlectCs BY Ceory us smiirion US $million US $millionl Goods 0.00 1.82 1.82 Works 0.10 0.00 0.10 Services 0.21 1.72 1.93 Operating expenses for project management 0.11 0.00 0.11 Recurrent costs for monitoring and early warning systems 0.33 0.00 0.33 Total Project Costs 0.75 3.54 4.29 Total Financing Required 0.75 3.54 4.29 -32 - Annex 4: Cost Effectiveness Analysis Summary TAJIKISTAN: LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT Summary of benefits and costs: The project is expected to generate substantial benefits in terms of reduced vulnerability to natural hazards (either the high-magnitude, low-frequency event as represented by an outburst flood from Lake Sarez, or the low-magnitude, high frequency events such as rockfalls and seasonal floodings, which are common in the project area). This project relates entirely with the protection of human lives and the reduction in the number of lives lost. It will directly benefit about 130,000 people located in the Bartang and along the Tajik side of the Panj river (Rushan Region of the Gorno-Badakstan Autonomous Oblast) by improving their alertness and preparedness to natural disasters. A substantial portion of the project cost will go to protect the population most at risk, about 19,000 inhabitants living in the Bartang valley just below the lake, by providing them with an early warning system based on an automatic protocol. The cumulative lives lost caused by annual rockfalls, debris flows, catastrophic rainfall, avalanches and flooding in the Pamir Mountains have not been quantified yet, but they are real. This project will also help to reduce these losses. During the summer of 1999, the entire village of Razuch (254 inhabitants) that previously received training on preparedness to emergencies from Focus Humanitarian Assistance (FOCUS), an NGO affiliated with the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN), organized itself and effected a total evacuation to a safe place in response to rockfalls and mudflows caused by heavy rains that destroyed several houses. No victim was registered among the villagers. The project will also generate substantial indirect benefits by reducing the uncertainty associated with the hazard from Lake Sarez and by generating the basic information and producing the technical capabilities used in the decision-making process for respondihg to the challenge of Lake Sarez, thus indirectly benefiting the populations of Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan (about 5,000,000 people) located in the Amu Darya river basin downstream from the lake. Main Assumptions: The use of traditional methods of cost-benefit analysis for the project is not feasible. Specific quantification of project benefits cannot be made because of the difficulty to estimate failure probabilities and associated risks on the basis of the currently available data. Any quantification is unreliable until meaningful data set of observations from the monitoring system are available. Also, except for the number of lives saved, it is not possible to estimate the marginal benefit of improving the current monitoring and early warning systems resulting from the project. Instead, a cost-effectiveness analysis of the project was examined. The main assumptions to estimate the number of life saved as a result of the monitoring and early waming systems are indicated in the table below. The results of the analysis indicate that if the flood extends until Rushan, the number of life saved would be 18,573, and if it extends until Moskovsky, then the number would be 131,550. The cost-effectiveness analysis has been performed using the most conservative value. - 33 - Estimation of Life Saved as a Result of the Monitoring and Early Warning Systems Village Distance Population Average Flood Wave Potential Below at Risk Flood Arrival Loss of Life Usoi Dam Velocity Time (km) (m/sec) (min) ____________ (1) (2) (3) Barchidev 16.0 200 50.6 5 24.02 Rukhch 25.0 276 48.7 9 29.14 Savnop 30.0 322 48.0 10 31.97 Nisur 36.0 225 47.8 13 25.78 Yapshur 41.0 231 47.2 14 26.19 Vrinjav 48.0 27 47.0 17 7.22 Chadud 66.0 175 42.3 26 22.17 Basid 70.0 671 41.6 28 49.66 Dorjdasht 75.0 49 40.7 31 10.33 Zarjif 81.0 14 39.9 34 4.87 Ajirch 95.0 86 38.3 41 14.48 Razuch 108.0 256 37.7 48 27.86 Darjomch 114.0 230 37.3 51 26.12 Rawif 126.0 180 36.9 57 22.55 Suponj 127.0 480 36.9 57 40.62 Dasht 131.0 191 48.0 45 23.37 Visaw 131.0 168 48.0 45 21.64 Shijez 138.0 231 34.1 67 26.19 Patrud 147.0 3 27.3 90 1.93 Jizeu 152.0 71 27.1 93 0.01 Rid 156.0 40 27.0 96 0.01 Bahu 160.0 154 26.8 99 0.03 Yimptz 165.0 520 26.6 103 0.10 Shojan 170.0 1114 26.3 108 0.22 Ajzev 175.0 15 25.9 112 0.00 Rushan 180.0 4165 25.7 117 0.83 Derzud 186.0 1246 25.4 122 0.25 Barzud 188.0 1126 25.4 123 0.23 Barushan 193.0 2194 25.4 126 0.44 Darushan 196.0 1670 25.4 128 0.33 Vamgde 202.0 744 25.4 132 0.15 Shidze 212.0 923 25.4 139 0.18 Vazdnav 222.0 491 25.4 145 0.10 Deh 232.0 390 25.4 152 0.08 Shpat 241.0 134 25.4 158 0.03 Between Rushan and Moskovsky 245 13,000 25.4 161 2.60 Moskovsky Plain 245 100,000 25.4 161 20.00 Total 132,012 462 -34 - Notes: (I) Source: IDNDR June 1999 mission report, Annex 1 (2) Source: flood scenarios for the Murgab, Bartang and Panj valleys, Focus, October 1999 (3) Loss of Life = (population at risk) ^O.6 for warning time < 90 min; Loss of Life = 0.0002* (population at risk) for waming time > 90 min Source: USBR, 1986 "Guidelines to Decision Analysis, ACER Technical Memorandum N.7", Engineering and Research Center, Denver, Colorado. A crude risk analysis was carried out to examine the impacts of two disaster scenarios: the total wash-out of the lake, and the over-topping of the lake without failure of the dam. The analysis shows that the impacts in terms of number of life saved are substantially the same in both scenarios. Cost-effectiveness indicators: On the basis of the cost-effectiveness analysis, this project is found to be a cost effective means of protecting the lives of the poor. The analysis used the cost-per (statistical)-life-saved and the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved as measures to assess the cost worthiness of the investment. The formner indicator is used by some government agencies to assess safety measures (not necessarily associated with dams). The cost-per (statistical)-life-saved for this project was found to be in the order of USS232. The best comparison for this value would be the cost of an alternative life protection program or the extra compensation required by workers in Tajikistan to undertake risky jobs. However, this comparison is limited by the availability of reliable data. In the absence of this information, a comparison was carried out on the basis of international benchmarks. The U.S. Federai Govermment practice in financing "Life-Protecting-Programs" considers the justification of such programs as "Very Strong," when the cost per life saved is less than US$3 million (see table below). In this particular case, the project will invest almost four orders of magnitude less than the minimum threshold considered by the U.S. Federal Governnent for a "Very Strong" justification of the investment. Just for reference, values of a (statistical)-life saved based on extra compensation of workers in the United States vary from US$1.0 million to US$8.0 million. U.S. Federal Government practice in Financing Life-Protecting-Programs In US$, 1999 prices Range of Cost-per-(statistical) Life-Saved Justification Greater than Equal to Less than Very strong 3,000,000 Strong 3,000,000 30,000,000 Moderate 30,000,000 140,000,000 Poor 140,000,000 The cost per DALY saved for this project, based on rough estimates of the potential reduction in deaths (about 18,570), the probability of the outburst flood from Lake Sarez (estimated at 5% and consistent with the value given to an event considered "very unlikely"), and the number of lost DALYs represented by the - 35 - death of one person (about 23), was found in the order of US$ 194. A country specific comparison is also limited by the availability of detailed cost-effectiveness studies in the country - i.e., this could be monitored when the Primary Health Care Project (Cr.3324-TJ) starts producing such information. The cost per DALY saved for this project, however, is in line with the range acceptable under the standards established in the 1993 World Development Report (i.e., less than USS250 per DALY saved). -36 - Annex 5: Financial Summary TAJIKISTAN: LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT Funding Totals Including Contin2encies (in '000 USS) COMPONENTS Source 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total A. Monitoring and Early Warning Systems 1. Design, technical assistance and training SWISS a 0.40 0.28 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.80 2. Equipment supply, installation, training and spare parts SWISS b 0.67 0.67 0.06 0.06 0.06 1.50 3. Panel of Experts SWISS b 0.08 0.08 - 0.04 - 0.20 Subtotal 1.14 1.03 0.10 0.14 0.10 2.50 B. Social Training and Safety-Related Supplies I. Technical assistance for community-based EWS AKDN/USAID c 0.22 0.21 - - - 0.43 2. Safety-related supplies including minor civil works AKDN/USAID c 0.16 0.16 - - - 0.32 Subtotal 0.38 0.37 - - - 0.75 C. Studies on Long Term Solutions SWISS a 0.20 0.20 - - - 0.40 D. Institutional Strengthening 1. Project management including operating expenses IDA/GoT 0.12 0.11 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.23 2. Equipment and furniture for Sarez Agency IDA/GoT 0.07 0.04 - - - 0.11 3. Operation and maintenance expenses for M&EWSs IDA/GoT - - 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.30 Subtotal 0.19 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.64 Total FINANCING 1.91 1.74 0.20 0.24 0.20 4.29 BY FUNDING SOURCE IDA 0.17 0.14 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.47 SWISS STATE SECRETARIAT FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS (tied) 0.60 0.48 0.04 0.04 0.04 1.20 SWISS STATE SECRETARIAT FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS (untied) 0.74 0.75 0.06 0.10 0.06 1.70 AGA KHAN DEVELOPMENT NETWORK (AKDN) 0.25 0.25 - - - 0.50 US AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (USAID) 0.13 0.12 - - - 0.25 GOVERNMENT OF TAJIKISTAN (GoT) 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.17 Total PROJECT FINANCING 1.91 1.74 0.20 0.24 0.20 4.29 Footnotes: a. This sub-component will be financed under a Swiss-Tajik Inter-government Agreement (tied parallel financing arrangement) b. This sub-component will be financed under a Swiss Trust Fund Agreement (untied parallel financing arrangement) c. This sub-component will be financed by grants from the AKDN and USAID, and will be implemented by FOCUS - 37 - Annex 6: Procurement and Disbursement Arrangements TAJIKISTAN: LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT Procurement Civil works and good under the Bank financed component (Component D) of the project will be procured in accordance with the Bank's guidelines "Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credit" published in January 1995 including all revisions up to January 1999. Contracts for Consulting Services required for Component D will be awarded following the World Bank Guidelines "Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers" dated January 1997, revised in September 1997 and January 1999. The Bank's Standard Bidding Documents, Request for Proposals and Forms of Consultants' Contract will be used. A General Procurement Notice (GPN) will be published in the Development Business of the UN in its issue of July 5, 2000 and will be annually updated. All procurement for the project will be coordinated and approved by the Sarez Agency. The PIU of the Education Reform Project (ERP-PIU) will have overall responsibility of the management of all procurement under the project. The Administrator Officer of the project will liaise with the ERP-PIU, and will be responsible for the upstream work, such as preparation of advertisements and bidding documents; for initiating internal approval and contract signature; and for maintaining up-to-date and accurate project procurement records. The Administrator Officer will be trained by the ERP-PIU in Bank procurement procedures and practices. Component D of the project involves the procurement of goods and services. The procurement procedures are described in the following paragraphs and summarized in Tables A and Al. (a) Goods. Goods consisting of data management equipment, office equipment, vehicles, office furniture, monitoring equipment and supplies under Component D financed by the IDA credit will be grouped under five separate packages. For good procurement packages estimated to cost less than $100,000 and up to US$50,000 each (approximately US$99,000), International Shopping (IS) based on the comparison of quotations obtained from at least three suppliers in two different countries will be applied. For locally available off-the-shelf goods, estimated to cost up to US$50,000 each (approximately US$8,000), National Shopping (NS) will be applied based on comparison of quotations obtained from at least three supplies. Procurement of goods funded by SECO out of the Swiss Trust Fund administrated by the Bank (approximately US$1.5 million) will be procured using International Competitive Bidding (ICB). Other goods financed by the donors subject to parallel financing (approximately US$ 350,000) will be procured according to the procedures of the donors. (b) Consultants' Services. Consulting services (US$98,000) to be financed under the IDA credit will be procured as follows. Least Cost Selection (LCS) procedures will be used for auditing services contracts less that or equal to US$35,000 for three years. Individual consultants will be hired in accordance with Section V of the Guidelines. Individual consultants will be used for small assignments of short-term duration -- such as operation and maintenance of the monitoring and early warning systems - for an aggregated amount of US$44,600. The advisory and support services for procurement and financial management for a maximum amount of US$18,000 will be sole-sourced to the ERP-PIU as the only organization in Tajikistan with sufficient expertise and idle capacity. The five consultants to conformed the Panel of Experts, whose services will be funded by the Swiss Trust Fund, have already been selected following individual selection procedures (US$200,000). - 38 - (c) Project Management Operating Costs. The incremental expenses incurred by the Sarez Agency (until June 30, 2002) on account of implementation of the LSRMP, including consultant salaries, workshops/seminar logistics expenses, fuel, vehicle insurance and inspection, office and vehicle maintenance and repair, transportation expenses to the lake, access path expenses, office consumable, will be procured in accordance with an annual budget to be approved by the Bank (USS175,000). (d) Recurrent Costs for Monitoring and Early Warning System. The project includes USS259,000 to meet the incremental expenses incurred by the new unit in charge of the operation and maintenance of the monitoring and early-warning systems (after the installation of the systems - around July 01, 2002). These recurrent costs include salary of locally recruited specialists, satellite connection fee, satellite check connection fee, transportation expenses to the lake, office consumable, fuel, vehicle insurance and inspection, office and vehicle maintenance and repair. The IDA credit will finance up to US$120,000 of these costs for the duration of the project on a declining basis, 75% first year, 50% second year, and 25% third year. Prior Review. The ICB package for goods financed by SECO will be subject to Bank's prior review. All IS and NS contracts will also be subject to Banks prior review. All terms of reference for all individual consultants will be subject to prior review and the qualifications, experience, and terms of employment of individual consultants will be furnished to the Bank for its prior review approval. The Request for Proposal, short list, termns and conditions of contracts as well as evaluation reports and recommendation for award will be prior reviewed by the Bank for all firm contracts selected under LCS and SS. Procurement of goods and services for the project will be carried out in accordance with the agreed procurement plan presented in the PIP, which will be updated if necessary and included in the progress reports for Bank review. All procurement related documentation that requires Bank's prior review will be cleared by a procurement accredited staff and relevant technical staff. - 39 - Procurement methods (Table A) Table A: Project Costs by Procurement Arrangements (US$ million equivalent) .Procurement Method : Expenditure,Category ICB ProNCB O th r2 N.B.F. Total Cost 1. Works 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) 2. Goods 0.00 0.00 0.11 1.85 1.96 (0.00) (0.00) (0.1 1) (0.00) (0.1 1) 3. Services 0.00 0.00 0.10 1.70 1.80 (0.00) (0.00) (0.09) (0.00) (0.09) 4. Project Management 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.17 Operating Costs (0.00) (0.00) (0.15) (0.00) (0.15) 5. M&EWSs Operation and 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.26 Maintenance Costs (0.00) (0.00) (0.12) (0.00) (0.12) Total 0.00 0.00 0.64 3.65 4.29 (0.00) (0.00) (0.47) (0.00) (0.47) " Figures in parenthesis are the amounts to be financed by the IDA Credit. All costs include contingencies 2 2. Goods: "Others" includes four IS packages for data management equipment (USS23K), office equipment (US$22K), vehicles (USS18K), monitoring equipment (USS36K), and one NS package for furniture (US$8K) 3. Services: "Others" includes four individual consultant (US$45K), one LCS for audit services (US$35K), and one single source for financial management and procurement (USSI 8K). Audit costs will be covered by IDA proceeds. 4. Project management operating costs: "Others" includes the incremental expenses incurred by the Sarez Agency on account of implementation of the LSRMP (until June 30, 2002) such as salaries of incremental staff, consultant salaries, workshops/seminar logistics expenses, fuel, vehicle insurance and inspection, office and vehicle maintenance and repair, transportation expenses to the lake, access path expenses, office consumable (USS 175K). 5. M&EWSs operation and maintenance costs: "Others" includes incremental expenses incurred by the new unit in charge of the operation and maintenance of the monitoring and early-warning systems (after July 01, 2002 and through the end of the project) such as salary of locally recruited specialists, satellite connection fee, satellite check connection fee, transportation expenses to the lake, office consumable, fuel, vehicle insurance and inspection, office and vehicle maintenance and repair (US$ 115,000). -40 - Table Al: Consultant Selection Arrangements (optional) (US$ million equivalent) Consultant Selection Method Services Expenditure QCBS QBS SFB LCS CQ Other N.B.F. Total Cost Category__ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ A. Firms 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 1.50 1.54 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.04) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.04) B. Individuals 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.20 0.26 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.05) (0.00) (0.05) Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.06 1.70 1.80 _ (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.04) (0.00) (0.05) (0.00) (0.09) 1\ Including contingencies Note: QCBS = Quality- and Cost-Based Selection QBS = Quality-based Selection SFB Selection under a Fixed Budget LCS = Least-Cost Selection CQ = Selection Based on Consultants' Qualifications Other = Selection of individual consultants (per Section V of Consultants Guidelines), Commercial Practice, and sole source N.B.F. = Not Bank-financed Figures in parenthesis are the amounts to be financed by the Bank Credit. - 41 - Prior review thresholds (Table B) Table B below applies to all packages financed by t-he IDA Credit. TabNe B: Trmsh ads fer 'Prouzrernent Methods and Prior Review' T -- Cot Vae I Contracts Subject to Threshold Procurement Prior Review Expenditure Category I fUS$ thousands) Method (US$ millions) 1. Works I ICB N/A 2. Goods { > 100 ICB (a) < 100 IS 0.10 ___ ___ ___ _ _ < 50 NS 0.01 3. Services | Ind, LCS, SS 0.11 otaZ ve.ue of contracts subject to prior review: USSO.22 million or 48% of IDA credit GvarsiZ Procurement Risk Assessment High Frequency of p-curement quaervision missions proposed: One every 6 months (includes special procurement supervision fbor post-review/audits) Note: (a) Funded by SECO out of Swiss Trust Fund. Thresholds generaliy differ by country and project. Consult OD 11.04 "Review of Procurement Documentation" and contact tihe Regional Procurement Adviser for guidance. Disbursement Allocation of credit proceeds (Table C) Table C: Allocation of Crerit Procs-ods Expenditure Category Amount in US$million _=ny Percentg Goods 0.10 - 1 00% of foreign expenditures - 100% of local expenditures (ex-factory cost) 80% iocal expenditures for other item .________ .procured locally Consultant services 0.09 100% of total expenditures Incremental operating costs for project 0.10 100% of total expenditures management (through June 30, 2002) Incremental operating and maintenance 0.16 - 75% from July 1, 2002 until June 30, costs for monitoring and early waming 2003 systems 50% until June 30, 2004 - 25% thereafter Unallocated 0.02 Total Project Costs 0.47 Total 0.47 Disbursement Procedures: A Special Account would be opened in a commercial bank acceptable to the World Bank, and managed by the Sarez Agency. The Initial Deposit (Authorized Allocation) would be US$40,000. The Sarez Agency would comply with Disbursement Handbook guidelines, including: 3 Payments out of the Special Account would cover eligible expenditures under the Project, the Sarez Agency would reimburse the Special Account for any ineligible expenditures; e Replenishments to the Special Account would be made on a monthly basis, or whenever the balance reaches less than one-third of the Authorized Allocation; and * Statement of Expenditure (SOE) procedures would be followed for expenditures for: (a) goods under coniracts costing less than US$100,000 equivalent each; (b) consulting fin-ns, under contracts costing less than USS20,000 equivalent; (c) services of individual consultants under contracts costing less than US$10,000 each; and (d) project management incremental operating costs and operation and maintenance costs of monitoring and early warning systems, under such terms and conditions as the Association shall speciifr by notice to the Borrower. -43 - Schedule of Disbursements (In USS thousands) Semester Ending/Fiscal Year - Disbursements Semester Amount Cumulative Percent (USS thousand) December 31, 2000 87 18 June 30, 2001 87 37 December31, 2001 68 51 June 30, 2002 68 66 December 31, 2002 33 73 June 30, 2003 33 80 December 31, 2003 26 86 June 30, 2004 26 91 December 31, 2004 21 96 June 30, 2005 21 100 The project would be completed on June 30, 2005. A period of six months would be allowed to complete disbursements, with the Credit Closing Date on December 31, 2005 -44 - Annex 7: Project Processing Schedule TAJIKISTAN: LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT Project Schedule Planned Actual Time taken to prepare the project (months) 11 11 First Bank mission (identification) 05/15/99 05/15/99 Appraisal mission departure 03/10/2000 03/13/2000 Negotiations 04/17/2000 04/18/2000 Planned Date of Effectiveness 08/15/2000 Prepared by: Preparation assistance: Technical assistance was provided to the Project Team during the project preparation process by: Attilio Zaninetti (Monitoring and Early Warning Systems), Bruno Periotto (Assessment of Accessibility), Jack Ives (Social Scientist), Behrooz Ross-Sheriff (Expert on Social Issues in Tajikistan), Gurdev Singh (Procurement), and Nodira Karimova (Translator/Interpreter) Bank staff who worked on the project included: Name Speciality Alessandro Palmiieri Task Team Leader/Senior Dams Specialist Rita Cestti Water Resources Economist Junko Funahashi Counsel Dominic Haazen Financial Management Specialist Naushad Khan Senior Procurement Specialist Ohn Myint Peer Reviewer Asger Christensen Peer Reviewer A. Ceyhan Peer Reviewer Matin Kholmatov Project Assistant (Dushanbe) Tashon Hemdon Staff Assistant Michelle Watts Staff Assistant -45 - Annex 8: Documents in the Project File* TAJIKISTAN: LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT A. Project Implementation Plan Project Implementation Plan*. B. Bank Staff Assessments Tajikistan Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project, PCD and Technical Annex. Report on the Assessment of Project for PMR-Based Disbursement. C. Other Brief Report on Sarez Lake Problem. Summary of Studies Carried out Since 1982 (Draft). D. Selement, May 26, 1999 *. UN/IDNDR Interagency Risk Assessment Mission to Lake Sarez, Mission Findings and Recommendations (Draft Version), July 15, 1999 *. Progress Reports of Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Program in the Bargtan Valley, FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance. *Including electronic files -46 - Annex 9: Statement of Loans and Credits TAJIKISTAN: LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT Difference between expected and actual Original Amount in US$ Millions disbursements' Project ID FY Borrower Purpose IBRO IDA Cancel. Undisb. Orig Frm Rev'd P057953 1999 Taiikistan EDUCATION 0.00 5.00 0.00 4.66 0.50 0.00 P059055 1999 Tajikistan EMG FLOOD ASST 0.00 5.00 0.00 2.18 0.15 0.00 P049718 1999 Tajikistan FARMPRIVATIZ.SUPPT-UTJ 00 20.00 0.00 19.24 2.79 0.00 P059755 1999 Tajikistan IEJTA 11 0.00 6.70 0.00 8.58 0.24 0.00 P053386 1998 Taqikistan P-C RECONSTRUCTION 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.72 0.09 0.00 P044202 1997 Taikislan PILOT POVERTY ALLEV. 0.00 12.00 0.00 2.88 1.79 0.00 P049894 2000 Tajikistan PRIM HEALTH CARE 0.00 5.40 0.00 5.22 0.00 0.00 P047438 1999 Tajikistan SAC I . 0.00 56.70 0.00 13.76 7.07 0.00 P068786 2000 Tajikistan EMG FLOOD ASST - SUPPLEM. 0.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 P043231 1996 Tajikistan IBITA I 0.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total: 0.00 127.80 0.00 57.04 12.683 0.00 -47 - TAJIKISTAN STATEMENT OF IFC's Held and Disbursed Portfolio In Millions US Dollars Committed Disbursed IFC IFC FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic Loan Equity Quasi Partic 1998 Nelson Gold 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 1997/98 Zeravshan Gold 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Portfolio: 1.50 3.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 2.00 0.00 0.00 Approvals Pending Commitment FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic 1997 Nelson Gold 0.00 0.00 2050.56 0.00 2000 SEF Holland Smkt 400.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Pending Commitment: 400.00 0.00 2050.56 0.00 -48 - Annex 10: Country at a Glance TAJIKISTAN: LAKE SAREZ RISK MITIGATION PROJECT Europe & POVERTY and SOCIAL Central Low- TaJlkistan Asia Income Development dlamond* 1998 Population, mid-year (millions) 6.1 473 3,515 Life expectancy GNP per capita (Atlas method, USS) 350 2,190 520 GNP (Atlas method, USS billions) 2.1 1,039 1,844 Average annual growth, 1992-98 0 Population I(%) 1.5 0.1 1.7 GNGrs Labor force (%) 2.4 0.6 1.9 GNP Gross Most recent estimate (latest year available, 1992-98) capita primary Poverty (% of population below national poverty line) Urban population (% of lotat population) 33 68 31 Life expectancy at birth (years) 68 69 63 Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) 30 23 69 Child malnutrition (% of children under 5) Access to safe water Access to safe water (% of population) 69 74 Illiteracy (% of population age t5+) 1 4 32 Gross primary enrollment (%of school-age population) 95 100 108 Tajikistan Male 97 101 113 Low-income group Female 94 99 103 KEY ECONOMIC RATIOS and LONG-TERM TRENDS 1977 1987 1997 1998 Economic ratios GDP (USS billions) 3.7 1.1 1.3 Gross domestic investment/GDP 29.9 7.0 Trade Exports of goods and services/GDP ,r Gross domestic savings/GDP 13.1 Gross national savingslGDP l Current account balancelGDP -5.5 -10.8 Domestic Interest payments/GDP 0.3 0 6 s Investment Total debt/GDP 107.3 91:2 Savinst Total debt service/exports 5.0 13.0 Present value of debtVGDP 35.9 Present value of debt/exports 92.7 Indebtedness 1977-87 1988-98 1997 1998 1999-03 (average annual growth) GDP . 11.9 1.7 5.3 Tajikistan GNP per capita -12.9 1.6 5.2 Low-income group Exports of goods and services STRUCTURE of the ECONOMY 1977 1987 1997 1996 Growth rates of output and Investment (%) (% of GDP) Agriculture 26.3 27.1 8.8 0- Industry 39.1 19.7 45.7 15 Manufacturing -20 Services - - -30. . Private consumption 64.0 . 4s0 General government consumption 22.8 GDI0 GDP Imports of goods and services 1977-87 1988-98 1997 1998 Growth rates of exports and Imports (%) (average annual growth) Agriculture 60 - Industry 40 -j. Manufacturing 20.4 Services o - , / Private consumption -20 9 9 6 97 W General government consumption Gross domestic investment 40 Imports of goods and services - Exports - mIports Gross national product -11.3 3.3 6.9 Note: 1998 data are preliminary estimates. The diamonds show four key indicators in the country (in bold) compared with its income-group average. If data are missing, the diamond will be incomplete. -49 - Tajikistan PRICES and GOVERNMENT FINANCE 1977 1987 1997 1998 Inflation (%) Domestic prices (% change) 1.00o Consumer prices .. .. 160.0 2.7 Implicit GDP deflator .. 2.9 101.4 0.9 r 400 Governmenf finance 200 (% of GDP, includes current grants) |, Current revenue .. .. 12.6 1 1.8 93 94 95 96 97 98 Current budget balance .. .. -2.1 -0.9 GDP defiator CPI Overall surplus/deficit .. .. -4.0 -3.5 TRADE (USS millions)'1977 1987 1997 1998 Export and Import levels (USS millions) Total exports (fob) .. .. 746 637 900 Aluminum .. .. 252 239 Cotton fiber .. .. 167 139 6us Manufactures .. Total imports (cif) 785 766 Food 3.. Fuel and energy .. .. 281 271 Capital goods .. .. .. o_ Export price index (1995=100) ..92 93 94 9 9G 97 9 Import price index (1995=100) ... *Erports Imports Terms of trade (1995=100) .. BALANCE of PAYMENTS 1 977 1987 1997 1998 Current account balance to GDP ratlo (%) (USS miliions) Exports of goods and services .. .. 746 637 0 Imports of goods and services .. .. 785 766 92 Resource balance .. .. -39 -130 i2 Net income .. .. -36 -41 4 Net current transfers .. .. .. I Current account balance .. .. -60 -140 8 Financing items (net) .. 76 176 -o- Changes in net reserves .. .. -16 -36 -12 Memo: Reserves including gold (US$ millions) .. .. 30 65 Conversion rate (DEC, locallUS$) .. 1.80E-2 328.2 475.7 EXTERNAL DEBT and RESOURCE FLOWS 1977 1987 1997 1998 (US$ millions) Composition of total debt, 1997 (US$ millions) Total debt outstanding and disbursed .. .. 1,180 1,185 IBRD .. .. 0 0 G:74 B:50 C:30 IDA * 50 0 Total debt service I BRD37 -1 IDA 0 0 D: 070 Composition of net resource flows Official grants .. .. 68 Official creditors .. .. 14 Private creditors .. .. 0 Foreign direct investment .. .. 20 Portfolio equity 0 E:551 World Bank program A- IBRO E - Bilateral Commitments .. .. 22 0 A - ID Other mulilatral F- Private Disbursemehts .. .. 22 0 C - IMt G - Short-term Principal repayments .. 20 0° Net flows .. .. 22 0 Interest payments .. .. 0 0 Net transfers .. .. 22 0 Development Economics 9/22/99 - 50 - IBRD 30783 KA u STAN ,,.6 ' < J / \ ~ ffi-ffi-t ~ z-8 C H ICNI A %sZ+s~ x> VA R O KfOFARNiHO S DAR Karai\.o~~ ~/ Zkul ' i \ Tafiu .I1 X A jJ 2 so&