Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment VOLUME I Synthesis Report Cover: © UNDP Somalia Inside Cover: © UNDP Somalia/Dreamcatcher Table of Contents Foreword 2 Acknowledgments 4 List of Figures 5 List of Tables 6 List of Boxes 7 List of Acronyms 8 Executive Summary 10 Introduction 10 Pre-Disaster Context 11 DINA Objectives, Approach and Scope 12 Methodology 15 2016-2017 Drought 18 Background on Droughts in Somalia 18 Overview of the Current Drought 19 Rainfall Analysis 20 Summary of Disaster Effects and Impacts: Damages, Losses and Needs 23 Overview of Pre-Drought Conditions, Drought Impact and Recovery Needs by Sector 28 Humanitarian Impact, Immediate Response, and Linkages to the Humanitarian Response Plan 36 The Human Impact 40 The Human Impact Framework 41 Deprivations in Living Conditions and Access to Basic Services 42 Livelihoods: Agriculture Losses, Unemployment and Loss of Income and Productive Resources 45 Food Security: Food Access and Malnutrition 47 Gender 47 Profile of Populations Affected, Vulnerable Groups and Social Protection 48 Poverty and Human Development 51 Final Observations 52 Macroeconomic Impact 54 Pre-drought Context and Baseline for the Sector 56 Drought Impact 59 Reforms Needed to Spur Growth 69 Cross-cutting Considerations 69 Recovery Needs and Strategy 70 Summary of Sector Assessments 74 Productive Sectors 74 Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production 74 Agriculture – Livestock 77 Agriculture – Fisheries 82 Physical Sectors 84 Water Supply and Sanitation 84 Transport 87 Environment, Clean Energy, and Natural Resource Management 89 Social Sectors 92 Health 92 Nutrition 96 Education 101 Cross-cutting Themes 105 Food Security 105 Livelihoods and Employment 108 Social Protection and Safety Nets 110 Gender 113 Urban Development and Municipal Services 116 Governance 119 Conflict 123 Displacement 125 Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience 131 Drought Recovery Strategy 136 Underlying Conflict Drivers and Stressors for Drought 136 DINA: Rationale, Objectives and Guiding Principles 138 Key Recovery Interventions 141 Implementing the DINA 145 Annex 1: Drought Recovery Action Plan 146 Annex 2: Acknowledgments 154 Foreword Federal Government of Somalia Somalia has made important progress in recent years with the establishment of permanent political institutions and significant improvement in security, paving the way towards a future with greater peace. This is yet, however, to translate into an improvement for the majority of Somali citizens’ food security and nutrition, access to safe water, sanitation, health care and better protection. Following four consecutive poor rainy seasons in 2016 and 2017, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated to a point where over half of the population is in need of assistance, jeopardizing critical gains made in recent years. In early 2017, the country was again faced with the risk of famine, only six years after a famine caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands, provoked unspeakable human suffering and put the lives of millions more at risk. While the famine was successfully averted in 2017 thanks to Somali leadership and extensive international support, the risk of famine remains, and the cyclical droughts and increasingly erratic weather patterns continue to prevent achievement of vital long-term development goals needed to lift Somalia out of poverty and insecurity. Given the need for concerted action at this critical juncture, the Federal Government of Somalia sought the support of the World Bank, the European Union, and the United Nations in conducting a comprehensive Drought Impact Needs Assessment (DINA) and Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF) to assess the impact of the ongoing drought on lives, livelihoods and sectors of the economy, while identifying preventative and sustainable development solutions to promote resilience to disaster risks and climate change trends and more effectively prevent the recurrence of cyclical famine risk in Somalia. The report has benefitted throughout the process from the constructive and informative engagement of the Federal Member States and the Benadir Regional Administration. Their input has been crucial, given that much of the work of the subsequent resilient recovery program will be delivered by subnational authorities. As the report will detail, the drought has caused damages and losses across a number of sectors totaling over USD 3.25 billion, requiring recovery interventions estimated at USD 1.77 billion. Agriculture (irrigation and rain-fed crops) and urban development and municipal services have been identified as the sectors with the highest recovery needs, representing 28 percent and 17 percent of total needs, respectively. The results of the DINA will feed into an RRF that will define a multi-sectoral approach to identifying key development policies and investment priorities to prevent the recurrence of cyclical famine risk, tied to an associated financing framework, situated within Somalia’s National Development Plan (NDP). The DINA is an important building block for the future vision of Somalia. We appreciate the support of our partners in undertaking this exercise within a tight timeframe, allowing for the timely initiation of much-needed recovery and resilience-building action, and we look forward to working with them on this strategic initiative. Gamal Mohamed Hassan Minister of Planning, Investment and Economic Development Federal Government of Somalia 2 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment The European Union, the United Nations, and the World Bank When alarms were raised of famine in early 2017, the collective response by national and international partners demonstrated a clear commitment to never again let a famine unfold in Somalia. The massive scale-up of life-saving assistance throughout the country by local communities, civil society, youth groups, diaspora, private sector, local and national authorities and international partners reflects a level of solidarity and efficiency in the national and international aid system which was not a given just a few years ago. Today, we know that collectively, we can prevent famine in Somalia. We also know that cyclical droughts in the Horn of Africa will continue to drive high levels of need in Somalia if urgent investments are not made in strengthening resilience to future disasters and effectively preventing the risk of famine in a sustainable manner. This has already been done in most other countries in the region and around the world, and we know it is feasible in Somalia. The coming years present a critical window of opportunity to build on the achievements and gains made nationally and internationally among development and humanitarian partners to effectively reduce risk and vulnerability among those most in need in Somalia. When the Federal Government of Somalia requested the European Union, the United Nations, and the World Bank to support a comprehensive assessment of the drought, we immediately joined a team of over 80 Government staff from Federal and Member State levels who worked across 18 sectors on the Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA). In fewer than seven weeks, the DINA team sifted through data, traveled to some of the most impacted areas, and validated findings using innovative remote sensing technology. What emerges is a DINA that goes beyond determining the damages, losses and resulting needs; it aims for a multi-sectoral, phased recovery strategy focused on strengthening resilience to future disasters and effectively preventing the cyclical risk of famine. It is our hope that the recommendations in this DINA can inform efforts by the Government of Somalia and its many partners to enhance the collective understanding of the dynamics and drivers of recurrent climatic emergencies in the country, while strengthening national capacity and the resilience of the Somali people to break the cycle of disasters and the food insecurity that too often is the outcome. Bella Bird World Bank Country Director for Somalia, Tanzania, Burundi and Malawi Peter de Clercq Deputy Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary General to Somalia Veronique Lorenzo EU Ambassador to Somalia 3 Acknowledgments The DINA was prepared under the overall leadership of the Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development in partnership with the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs & Disaster Management of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States and the Benadir Regional Administration. It was undertaken with strategic support from the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union, within the framework of the 2008 Joint EU-UN-WB Declaration on Post-Crisis Assessments and Recovery Planning. Financial support has been provided by the European Union under the ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction program implemented by the WB-led Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. Ipsos provided remote sensing and survey support, and Courage Services, Inc. provided remote sensing services. More than 180 national and international experts from the FGS, Federal Member States, the Benadir Regional Administration, the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union worked intensively across 18 sector/ cross-cutting groups to collect, validate and analyze data, conduct field visits to consult with sub-national authorities, international and national non-governmental organizations and civil society stakeholders, to determine recovery needs and identify interventions for medium-term recovery and long-term resilience. A complete list of contributors to the DINA can be found in Annex 2. 4 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment List of Figures Figure 1: Effective Planting Rains During Deyr and Gu 2009-2016 Seasons 21 Figure 2: Monthly Rainfall in Somalia in Comparison to the Long-Term Average, Sep. 2016 – June 2017 21 Figure 3a: Impact of the Drought (October 31, 2016 – June 30, 2017) 22 Figure 3b: Rain Effect April 2017– June 2017 22 Figure 4: Illustration of Typical Gu and Deyr Season 23 Figure 5: Distribution of Damages by Sector 24 Figure 6 Distribution of Losses by Sector 24 Figure 7: Distribution of Needs by Sector 25 Figure 8: Distribution of Needs by Federal Member State/Administrative Region 25 Figure 9: Response Plan Funding and Funding by Cluster 38 Figure 10: Deprivations and Multidimensional Poverty in Somalia 40 Figure 11: The Cascading Human Impact of Disasters 42 Figure 12: Water and Sanitation: Typology of the Cascading Effects and Human Impact of Drought 43 Figure 13: Health: Typology of the Cascading Effects and Human Impact of Drought 43 Figure 14: Deprivations: Living Conditions and Access to Basic Services 44 Figure 15: Adoption of Coping Strategies by Percentage 46 Figure 16: Livelihoods: Typology of the Cascading Effects and Human Impact of Drought 46 Figure 17: Profile of Populations Affected 48 Figure 18: Food Insecurity by IPC Phase (August to December 2017), Poverty and Human Development in Somalia 51 Figure 19: Somalia’s Economic Growth Before the Drought 54 Figure 20: Fragile State Indicators for Somalia 58 Figure 21: Price of Camel Local Quality (Somali and Somaliland Shillings) 60 Figure 22: Price of Cattle of Export and Local Quality (Somali and Somaliland Shilling) 61 Figure 23: Price of Sheep of Export Quality (Somali and Somaliland Shillings) 62 Figure 24: Price of Goat of Export and Local Quality (Somali and Somalia Shillings) 63 Figure 25: Price of Crops Increased Significantly in all Regions 64 Figure 26: Average Daily Labor Rate (USD) 65 Figure 27a: Somalia’s Exports (2013-2017) 66 Figure 27b: Somalia’s Imports (2013-2017) 67 Figure 28: Somalia Livelihood Profile 77 Figure 29: Estimated Livestock Losses 78 Figure 30: Mortality Rate by Type of Livestock 79 Figure 31: Percentage of Grazing Land Degraded by Drought 80 Figure 32: Boreholes and Drought Edges 85 Figure 33: Provisional Road Condition 87 Figure 34: IDP Settlements and Roads in Kismayo 88 Figure 35: GAM and SAM Trends in Somalia 96 Figure 36: Critical Issues with Food Access 98 Figure 37: Displacement Statistics 102 Figure 38: Children Enrolled vs Forced Out of School 103 Figure 39: Projected Food Security Outcomes, Nov. 2017-Jan. 2018 and Feb.-May 2018 107 Figure 40: Area Occupied by IDP Settlements in Baidoa, Kismayo and Mogadishu 116 Figure 41: IDP Settlements in Mogadishu 117 Figure 42a: IDP Settlements in Biadoa 117 Figure 42b: IDP Settlements in Kismayo 117 Figure 43: Somalia Fatalities by District (In Grey) and Drought Intensity (In Red) 124 5 List of Tables Table 1: Summary of Damages, Losses, and Needs Across All Sectors 26 Table 2: Areas of Concern Through January 2018 by Food Security Plans 49 Table 3: Vulnerable Population Groups 50 Table 4: Key Baseline Macroeconomic Data 59 Table 5: Balance of Payment, 2013-19 (USD millions) 67 Table 6: Summary of Drought Recovery Needs 73 Table 7: Agriculture – Irrigation and Red-Red Crop Recovery Needs 76 Table 8: Agriculture – Livestock Recovery Needs 81 Table 9: Agriculture – Fisheries Recovery Needs 83 Table 10: Water Supply and Sanitation Recovery Needs 86 Table 11: Transport Recovery Needs 88 Table 12: Damages and Losses in the ENR sector in Somalia, 2017 89 Table 13: Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resources Management Recovery Needs 91 Table 14: Key Baseline Data for the Health Sector 92 Table 15: Health Sector Loss 93 Table 16: Summary Needs for Health 95 Table 17: Nutrition Sector Losses 97 Table 18: Nutrition Recovery Needs 100 Table 19: Education Recovery Needs 104 Table 20: Impact of Drought on Number of People Requiring Urgent Food Security Assistance 105 Table 21: Food Security Recovery Needs 107 Table 22: Estimated Direct Losses in the Livestock Sector 108 Table 23: Livelihoods and Employment Recovery Needs 110 Table 24: Social Protection and Safety Nets Recovery Needs 112 Table 25: Gender Recovery Needs 115 Table 26: Urban Development and Municipal Services Recovery Needs 119 Table 27: Governance Recovery Needs 121 Table 28: Displacement Recovery Needs 130 Table 29: Summary Needs for Disaster Risk Reduction and Drought Resilience 134 6 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment List of Boxes Box 1: Centrality of Protection 13 Box 2: Remote Sensing and Field Surveys in Support of the Somalia DINA 16 Box 3: Water Harvesting Changes Lives 20 Box 4: Water, Food and Security for Displaced Communities 45 Box 5: Training Women Strengthen Fishing Communities 83 Box 6: Safe Drinking Water Promises Health Benefits 85 Box 7: Nutrition Center Saves Lives of Drought-affected Children 99 Box 8: Displaced Children Get a Chance at Education 104 Box 9: Homeless and Hungry: The Journey Continues 126 Box 10: Exclusion in Somalia 128 7 List of Acronyms ACLED Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project AfDB African Development Bank ARC African Risk Capacity AWD Acute Watery Diarrhea CAS Comprehensive Approach to Security CBS Central Bank of Somalia CIA Central Intelligence Agency, United States of America CPI Consumer Price Index CSA Climate Smart Agriculture CSO Civil Society Organization DINA Drought Impact and Needs Assessment DOCC Drought Operations Coordination Centers DRR Disaster Risk Reduction DSI Durable Solutions Initiative EGA Evergreen Agriculture ELD Economics on Land Degradation Initiative EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FEWSNET Famine Early Warning Systems Network FGM Female Genital Mutilation FGS Federal Government of Somalia FISHSTAT Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Stats, FAO FMS Federal Member States FMNR Farmer-managed Natural Regeneration FSNAU Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit FTS Financial Tracking Service, UNOCHA GAM Global Acute Malnutrition GBV Gender Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GII Gender Inequality Index HCF Health Care Facility HCT Humanitarian Country Team HH Household HRP Humanitarian Response Plan ICCG Inter-Cluster Coordination Group IFI International Financing Institutions ICT Information and Communication Technology ICU Islamic Courts Union IDP Internally Displaced Persons IOM International Organization for Migration IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification IRC International Rescue Committee ISFM Integrated soil fertility management systems 8 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment LMIS Labor Market Information Services MDGs Millennium Development Goals MMR Maternal Mortality Ratio MoHADM Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management MoPIED Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development MoWHRD Ministry of Women and Human Rights Development MPF Multi Partner Fund, World Bank NDP National Development Plan NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NGO Non-governmental Organization NWoW New Way of Working ODA Official Development Assistance OIC Organization of Islamic Cooperation PESS Population Estimations Survey for Somalia PLW Pregnant and Lactating Women PIMS Public Investment Management and Governance Support Project, World Bank PPP Public Private Partnership Framework PRMN Protection & Return Monitoring Network, UNHCR RRF Recovery and Resilience Framework SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SIDF Somalia Infrastructure Development Fund SITF Somalia Infrastructure Trust Fund SWALIM Somalia Water and Land Information Management SDRF Somalia Development and Reconstruction Facility TLS Temporary Learning Structures U5MR Under-five Mortality Rate UN United Nations UNHCR Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNMPTF UN Multi Partner Trust Fund for Somalia UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UN Women United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women WFP World Food Program WHO World Health Organization WIDEs Widely Diversified Enterprises WB World Bank 9 Executive Summary Introduction Union, which aims to reduce the country’s vulnerability to climate shocks, strengthen resilience and significantly reduce the future risk of famine. Although famine was averted in 2017, thanks in part Medium - to long-term investments in reducing vulner- to a massive scale-up in humanitarian assistance, ability and risk are urgently required to prevent the re- famine remains a looming risk in the coming months currence of cyclical famine risk in Somalia. The progress and years. Decades of insecurity, political instability, in state-building and peace-building in Somalia since drought and food insecurity have disrupted desperately 2012 has now created conditions in which targeted ef- needed services, devastated human capital and forts can be made to define and implement solutions so physical infrastructure, and contributed to systematic that Somalis will never again face the risk of famine. The impoverishment and displacement of the population. FGS has already prioritized a focus on resilience within The 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) highlights its National Development Plan (NDP), which serves as the need to sustain humanitarian lifesaving efforts at the overarching framework for development priorities levels similar to 2017 due to predictions of a fourth in Somalia. There are now opportunities for better in- consecutive season of failed rains from Oct-Dec 2017. vestment in Government-led policies and medium- to The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and its local long-term programs that can more sustainably reduce and international partners will need to provide lifesaving risk and vulnerability for the 6.2 million people who are services to approximately 6.2 million people in 2018 to most vulnerable and in need of humanitarian assistance. limit the effects of diseases and continue to prevent Recurrent drought and subsequent famine risk have famine.1 This continuing drought crisis further underlines become a devastating and increasingly unsustainable the need to seek ways to make structural changes that cycle in Somalia in recent decades. Since the end of will reduce the impacts of future drought cycles. the previous drought in 2011, approximately USD 4.5 The impact of drought on the Somali people is billion has been spent on emergency responses to compounded by an interrelated set of factors that save lives. While these efforts have averted famine to include the environment, governance, conflict, date, the continuous need for humanitarian response is displacement and poverty. This confluence of factors preventing Somalis from achieving the vital long-term has created an exceedingly complex crisis in the Horn development gains needed to lift the country out of of Africa, and it demands an equally complex analysis poverty and insecurity. of the underlying drivers of drought, their impact on The inauguration of a new President and Parliament the Somali people and the strategies that can pave the through a historic electoral process, progress in building way toward recovery and resilience. While the Somali economic, security, justice and governance institutions, authorities prioritize meeting the urgent humanitarian and the launch of the NDP present an unprecedented needs of its citizens, they also see the need to focus on opportunity to break the cycle of recurrent disasters medium- and long-term development objectives. The and move towards medium-term recovery and long- Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA), term resilience. together with the Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF), is a process led by the FGS in partnership with Towards this end, the DINA and the RRF seek to build on the Federal Member States (FMS) and supported by the essential, life-saving humanitarian interventions that the World Bank, the United Nations and the European have to date succeeded in preventing famine. 1 UNOCHA and HCT. 2017. Somalia Humanitarian Response Plan: January – December 2018  10 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia Pre-Disaster Context In an attempt to re-establish state authority, the FGS was established in 2012, built through national dialogue Somalia is emerging from a decades-long civil war that and consensus and based on a federal system of has ravaged the country since 1991. Cycles of conflict Member States. Through an inclusive and participatory have resulted in a rapid deterioration of the country’s process, the Somali Compact was drafted for the period infrastructure and institutions, and the emergence of 2014-16, reflecting the ongoing process of transition different political entities, all faced by varying levels of and defining priority interventions to ensure the country conflict and fragility. Decades of conflict have also led stays on the path to long-term peace and state-building to large-scale protracted displacement with substantive with the ultimate objective of a new Constitution. The progress to durable solutions remaining elusive. The FGS and the FMS have also developed an NDP (2017- ongoing conflict has multiple layers, including continued 19), the first in 30 years. competition for resources between communities, resulting in a need for local reconciliation. Insecurity Substantial progress has been achieved in the creation continues to pose big challenges to Somalia's short- of the federal institutional structure. However, critical term stability and long-term development. parameters of Somalia as a Federal State, including Executive Summary | 11 the formula for resource sharing and the articulation of rivers running through the country are the Shebelle and competencies between the respective entities, are still Juba rivers, shared with Ethiopia and exposing central to be defined and enshrined in the Constitution, and and southern Somalia to flooding when heavy rains progress is highly dependent on the establishment of occur in the Ethiopian highlands. Land degradation is a relations of trust between the center and the periphery. prominent environmental issue in the country, driven by drought, desertification and poor agricultural and Despite progress in the state-building and peace- pastoral practices.9 building agenda, the socio-economic situation of the country remains challenging. Somalia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated to be USD 6.2 billion for DINA Objectives, Approach and Scope 2016, with nominal growth of a 6.2 percent.2 Its GDP per capita was equally low, at USD 450.3 Somalia has To improve understanding of the dynamics and drivers a population of 12.3 million, with approximately 60 of recurrent emergencies and to reinforce efforts to percent living in rural areas.4 Only 54 percent of the develop long-term durable solutions aimed at building population participates in Somalia’s labor force,5 with 33 broad-based resilience and mitigation to disaster risks percent female participation.6 Some 51 percent of the as well as longer term climate change trends, the FGS population still lives below the USD 1.90 per day poverty submitted a formal request in August 2017 for WB, UN line, with the highest incidence of poverty found among and EU assistance to conduct a comprehensive Drought households located in IDP settlements (71 percent).7 Impact Needs Assessment (DINA) and Recovery and Approximately two-thirds of youth are underemployed Resilience Framework (RRF). or unemployed. Due to the decades-long conflict, recent and comprehensive human development data for Objectives of the DINA the country remains elusive. The DINA aims to provide an assessment of drought Somalia is a largely pastoral and agro-pastoral damage and loss impacts so that current and future economy, strategically located in the Horn of Africa and drought impacts can be quantified and an estimation of bordered by Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya. Its surface recovery and resilience needs developed. The findings area is approximately 637,657 square kilometers, with are essential for any Government to fulfill its role a coastline extending 3,025 kilometers along the Gulf leading drought recovery efforts. They can also guide Aden to the north and the Indian Ocean to the east. the FGS, the FMS and partners to continue to prevent Agricultural land comprises 70 percent of the country, of famine and implement structural interventions that can which close to 2 percent is arable land, while 68 percent lead to a way out of the repeated cycles of drought. is permanent pasture.8 The main agricultural production The DINA needs figures are essential because they areas are situated in southern Somalia and parts of the represent the first and only estimation the Government northwest, with main food crops being maize, sorghum, and its partners have of what will be required to move sesame and cowpeas. Somalia beyond perpetual emergency response into recovery and, eventually, resilient development. The The country is at high risk of natural hazards, notably DINA is important for recovery planning in any crisis drought, desertification and floods. Somalia features situation but particularly relevant for the Government a highly-varied topography and a desert climate. and its partners in Somalia, where there is a pattern of Northern sections of the country are mountainous, recurrent drought. with the land rising between 900m to 2,100m above sea level, and flatten off in the central and southern The objectives of the DINA include estimating the regions. The climate is arid or semi-arid, with rainfall physical, economic and human impacts of the 2016- patterns of two rainy and two dry seasons. The main 17 drought on the socio-economic development of 2 World Bank. 2017. Somalia Economic Update. 3 Based on World Bank data 2016. 4 Federal Government of Somalia. 2016. Somalia National Development Plan (2017-2019)  5 Based on ILO estimates 2015. 6 Ibid. 7 World Bank. 2017. Somali Poverty Profile 2016: Findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey.  8 Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). 2017. The World Fact Book. 9 UNDP. 2017. Climate Change Adaptation website, citing UNEP 2011. 12 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Box 1: Centrality of Protection The centrality of protection of critical rights in the HRP, DINA and RRF requires a system-wide response. The HRP, DINA and RRF have prioritized addressing, in the short-term and early recovery periods, protection of key rights related to: Preventing exclusion, including exclusion based on societal discrimination, power structures, • vulnerability, age and gender. Addressing the rights abuses and social pressure that increasing displacement has placed especially • on urban areas and the challenges in achieving durable solutions. The erosion of resilience and self-protection of communities due to drought and multi-layered • conflict, compounded by limited delivery of services in hard-to-reach areas. the country at national, state and regional levels and DINA in the context of the ongoing assessing and quantifying sector drought recovery needs humanitarian crisis as well as the associated overall resilience building The DINA aligns with the 2018 HRP for Somalia, part needs of the country. These processes aim to integrate of the three-year Humanitarian Strategy (2016-18). concepts of disaster risk reduction, durable solutions for The DINA complements the HRP by focusing on displacement, resilience and “building back better” into medium- to long-term recovery and ensuring strategic recovery planning and implementation, with appropriate alignment between Somalia’s humanitarian, recovery, gender and environmental considerations. and development agendas. Toward this end, short-term humanitarian interventions are left to the HRP while The DINA comprises three volumes: the DINA focuses more on interventions that support • Volume I: Synthesis report recovery and resilience building measures. • Volume II: Sector assessment annex In the context of Somalia, in which a situation of • Volume III: FMS-level annex protracted humanitarian crisis prevails, it is imperative Objectives of the RRF that the RRF bring together all stakeholders to consider the recovery strategy. Furthermore, recent and ongoing DINA findings and recommendations will inform the humanitarian responses continue to provide multiple development of a Recovery and Resilience Framework lessons for increasing efficiency that will inform the (RRF), which will provide the policy, institutional, and recovery and resilience strategy. The RRF allows these financial basis to guide the transition from humanitarian lessons to be captured and shared across the spectrum relief to recovery and long-term development. The of stakeholders. framework defines a multi-sectoral approach to prioritizing key development and investment priorities, The DINA and the resulting recommended interventions allowing Government authorities to build on existing are intended to move beyond the traditional and efforts to strengthen resilience to recurrent disasters, artificial distinction between humanitarian and recovery increase disaster management and crisis response interventions. International best practice has shown that capacity, and enhance Somalia’s ability to respond the most effective recovery strategies work across the to climate change. The RRF serves two distinct and humanitarian-recovery-development nexus and take simultaneous functions: an operational and investment a multi-partner, multi-sectoral, integrated approach framework that will prioritize and finance recovery that combines both humanitarian, recovery and interventions while developing government capacity for resilience building interventions to meet immediate managing a recovery program, and an implementation humanitarian needs, strengthen livelihoods and build platform for the DINA. resilience to future disasters. The DINA and RRF benefit from this nexus while also leveraging it for sustainable drought recovery. Executive Summary | 13 Approach and Timeline: The DINA is a FGS-led Geographical and Temporal Scope: All 18 administrative initiative with important engagement and input from regions of the Somali peninsula have been affected by the FMS and the Benadir Regional Administration. To the drought and were therefore part of the assessment: achieve delivery by the timeline requested by FGS, a multi-partner management structure was established, Central: Benadir, Galguduud, Hiran, Middle • ensuring effective coordination and cooperation. The Shebelle and Lower Shebelle. assessment process commenced in late August 2017 • Northeastern: Bari, Mudug and Nugal. upon the request of the FGS for support to conduct the Northwestern: Awdal, Sanaag, Sool, Togdheer • DINA and RRF. Mobilization of experts, both national and Woqooyi and international, took place in September, and the DINA and RRF kicked off in early October with an Southern: Bakool, Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba • induction training for over 150 sector experts from the and Lower Juba. Government, World Bank, UN and the EU in Mogadishu, Given the impact of the drought preceding, and geared towards understanding the joint WB-UN-EU following, the disaster declaration in February 2017 and DINA methodology. estimates that drought conditions will continue well into 2018, given the forecast of below-average rains Following the workshop, more than 180 experts working for a fourth consecutive season, the temporal scope to across 18 sector teams embarked on a process of data assess damages and losses from the drought covers the collection, analysis and validation to establish a pre- time period from the 2016 Deyr rainy season (October drought baseline, determine the damages and losses to December 2016) to the end of the 2017 Deyr rains inflicted by the disaster and calculate the resulting (October to December 2017). needs for sustainable recovery and long-term drought resilience. With time of the essence due to the severity of the drought, the DINA team engaged the services of Methodology Ipsos, a global data and advisory services company, to fill data gaps with on-the-ground support from its field The DINA follows the standard PDNA methodology teams in Somalia and to support data collection and developed by the UN System, World Bank and the validation in inaccessible areas of the country through European Union that incorporates a collection of remote sensing. analytical methods, tools and techniques developed for post-disaster assessments and recovery planning, Sectoral Scope: The scope of the assessment covered ensuring sector to sector comparability and homogeneity the following sectors: in the definition of basic concepts of damages, losses and post-disaster recovery needs. The assessment builds Productive sectors: Agriculture – Irrigation and • on primary and secondary data related to damage and Rain-fed Crops; Livestock; Fisheries. This represents loss in the identified sectors, which are provided by FGS, the sectors of the economy on which the livelihoods FMS and development partners supporting the DINA. of the people generally depend. Physical sectors: Water Supply and Sanitation; • Damage and Loss Quantification: The effects of the Transport; and Environment, Clean Energy and drought on each sector have been assessed in terms of Natural Resource Management. These sectors damages and losses. represent assets that are essential for the Damage is defined as total or partial destruction • functioning of a society and economy, i.e. the of physical assets existing in the affected area. infrastructure. Damages occur during and immediately after the Social sector: Health; Nutrition; and • disaster and are measured in physical units (i.e., Education. This includes sectors related number of damaged boreholes, head of livestock, to social aspects of society. hectares of land, etc.). Their monetary values are Cross-cutting themes: Urban Development and • expressed as the replacement costs according to Municipal Services; Social Protection and Safety prices prevailing just before the event. Nets; Food Security; Livelihoods and Employment; Losses are defined as changes in economic flows • Gender; Governance; Conflict; Displacement and arising from the disaster. They occur until full Migration; and Disaster Risk Reduction, Disaster economic recovery and reconstruction is achieved, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience. This in some cases lasting for several years, but for the includes themes which impact other sectors. purposes of this assessment, losses have been • Analyses of the overall macroeconomic, human and projected up through December 2017. Typical social impact of the drought were also undertaken. losses include the decline in output in productive sectors (agriculture, livestock, and fisheries). 14 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia Classification and Quantification of Recovery Needs: Data Collection and Validation: The key source of Recovery needs are the costs of recommended information for the estimation of damages and needs interventions and resources that include: the was primary data from the FGS and FMS, and secondary reconstruction needs estimated as the requirements data available from existing or on-going humanitarian/ for financing reconstruction, replacement or repair of sectoral assessments. In addition, primary data and the physical assets that were damaged or destroyed by qualitative data were provided by Ipsos through remote the disaster; and recovery needs estimated on the basis sensing techniques using satellite imagery and from of the financial resources required for the rehabilitation on-the-ground field surveys conducted by the Ipsos of basic services, reactivation of productive activities, Somalia team. Data validation techniques included or immediate reactivation of personal or household the use of remote sensing techniques to validate key income. Recovery needs also include capacity building impact data for crops, livestock and water resources. and operational costs for service delivery that are Further validation of data was performed using process necessary for the implementation of interventions. verification techniques and empirical plausibility checks. Costing for recovery needs include differentials for The assessment included the collection of pre-drought building back better to consider quality improvements baseline data to evaluate the drought impact and to and DRR measures to be implemented to increase determine the overall recovery strategy. resilience against future disasters. For the purpose of this assessment, recovery needs are classified as The Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic short-term (Year 1); medium-term (Years 2-3); and Development (MoPIED) and UN colleagues coordinated long-term (Years 4+). Short-term recovery needs are field visits to five Federal Member States (FMS): distinct from emergency humanitarian needs. Rather Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, Puntland and than representing emergency lifesaving interventions, South West, and consultation with Benadir Regional short-term recovery needs represent interventions of Administration authorities. The visits comprised a developmental nature that need to be implemented consultations with state-level line ministries, UN agencies in the short-term to have quicker results and impact on operational in the states, and representatives of civil the overall recovery program. An example would be the society regarding data collection, needs assessment and immediate injection of capacity within the Government recovery strategies. to lead and coordinate the recovery efforts. Understanding the drivers and root causes of drought- Recovery needs, especially in the case of a slow- related humanitarian needs: The DINA builds on the onset disaster, are typically and logically valued less Somalia Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) for 2018 by than damages and losses, as the largest needs are seeking to better understand the root causes and drivers represented in the humanitarian phase that can continue of drought-related humanitarian needs and famine risk. for an extended period of time. In addition, the cost of International best practice has shown that the most inputs required for recovery (such as livestock treatment effective way to reduce needs, risks and vulnerabilities or seeds) are typically less than the value of outputs and build resilience is to work more coherently across the lost due to drought (such as cattle mortality decreasing humanitarian-recovery-development nexus by ensuring income from export, or crop failure decreasing the short-, medium- and long-term programs target the volume available for sale). most vulnerable people concurrently wherever possible. Executive Summary | 15 Box 2: Remote Sensing and Field Surveys in Support of the Somalia DINA Remote sensing applications were used to delineate the spatial and temporal extent of the drought to provide an objective tool to quantify the impacts in key sectors. With the assistance of Ipsos Inc., one of the world’s largest data services firms, and Courage Services Inc., high-resolution satellite imagery such as Landsat (the longest-running enterprise for the acquisition of satellite imagery of Earth) and indicators such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (showing the state and health of vegetation) were analyzed to provide vital data on affected populations, drought-stressed areas and sector-specific impact information. In addition, a survey was conducted of over 1,000 households in 13 districts in conjunction with a survey of Somali healthcare facilities (HCFs) to understand the impact of the drought on nutrition, health and livelihoods, particularly among internally displaced persons (IDPs). Agriculture Remote sensing was utilized to gauge total estimated area of production and total area loss within six major areas of Somalia, including Bay, Galguduud, Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Middle Juba. MODIS NDVI 250M was utilized to determine baseline NDVI calculation, and imagery from 2016-2017 was first utilized for drought level NDVI calculation. Raster images were compared to estimate average NDVI loss. Areas with above-average NDVI loss were targeted for identification and/or verification of activity at previously known or classifier-identified medium/ large-scale bananas, papayas, tomatoes and lemon large cultivation areas either through targeted review of 0.8-3M resolution Planet Labs imagery (for medium/large scale lemon tree/bananas holdings), WV3/4 30cm imagery for sampled confirmation of smaller crops (where available) and/or by cross-checking imagery results against previous ground-based agricultural baseline crop cultivation estimation studies in these areas. Limitations of this methodology include areas with relative cloud cover in either baseline/drought imagery, as well as potential joint planting of crops within reviewed areas, areas of small-scale farming and/or lack of pre-existing ground sampling in examined areas. Information was cross-compared with FAO-estimated crop areas, as well as with expert-provided cultivation and loss estimates within designated regions. A major market and farm-based survey was conducted to identify farmgate (volume) and market prices for 14 major commodities. Data was used to assist sector specialists with damage and loss estimates. Fisheries Whereas the use of such techniques was discussed with IPSOS and thought to be useful in future for boat counts in marine fisheries (provided that we use very high resolutions satellite imagery), the use of boats as an estimate of fishing activity in the inland fisheries was not factored into the analysis done by the Fishery Sector Team. 16 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Displacement (i) Very High-resolution satellite imagery from 2014 and 2015, as well as from August 2017 was used to identify IDP settlements and estimate IDP populations prior to the drought and during the drought periods for Kismayo. IDP structures were determined based on existing imagery signatures, including roofing structure, irregularly-shaped constructions, and tent structures; (ii) Multiple NGO publications and local surveys, including IOM, Norwegian Refugee Services, UNICEF, among others, were examined to further refine areas for imagery analysis and examine IDP settlement patterns. Each IDP structure was counted, its area size accounted for, and roofing type determined. Calculations were cross-examined with UN procurement documents in the areas in which imagery analysis identified organized tent settlements. Data was used to determine average and absolute capacity for population incidence and density within Kismayo. Pre-drought and post-drought settlement maps and IDP estimates for the city were produced as a result. WASH/Health Access Remote sensing and NGO data were used to estimate IDP access to WASH/health facilities within three major urban areas, including Mogadishu, Baidoa and Kismayo: (i) Satellite imagery was used to estimate IDP populations and settlement patterns within these cities; (ii) UNICEF data for WASH/Health facilities was utilized to understand baseline distribution and functionality of facilities; (iii) Open street map (OSM) road data (September 2017) and high resolution imagery (August 2017) were utilized to identify which road networks, including primary, secondary and tertiary roads, connected WASH and health facilities to IDP settlements; (iv) IRC, IOM, World Bank High Frequency and Ipsos household surveys were used to understand primary and secondary sources of water and health provisions. Conflict (i) ACLED conflict incidence data for Somalia from pre-drought (2014-2016) and drought periods (2016- 2017) was used to identify percentage change in conflict incidence at district/region levels for multiple types of conflict (battle-no change of territory, violence against civilians, remote violence, riots/protests); (ii) Conflict percentage change activity was layed over drought impact areas to identify any potential cross- correlation between drought and conflict; (iii) In urban areas with high influx of IDPs, pre-drought vs. drought IDP settlement patterns were reviewed to understand whether increase in IDPs was an additional vector potentially responsible for increase in violence. Environment (i) Remote sensing was used to estimate NDVI change (2014-2017) to estimate drought conditions in Somalia; (ii) FAO Landsat-derived land cover/land use areas were reviewed to identify grazing areas; (iii) Pixel-level overlap was identified between grazing areas and most affected/moderately affected by drought areas to estimate percentage of grazing areas likely decimated by drought. Information was further mapped at district level. Executive Summary | 17 © UNDP Somalia 2016-2017 Drought intervals of 2-3 years in the Deyr (October- December) season and 8-10 years in consecutive Deyr and Gu (April- June) seasons, extending seasonal hardships.10 Records Background on Droughts in Somalia indicate that ten significant droughts occurred between Somalia is heavily reliant on its natural resource base 1918 and 1975, while droughts also occurred in 1979-80, and the provision of eco-system services. The country’s 1983-86 and 1989-90.11 vulnerability to climate change is projected to increase In the last quarter century, Somalia has undergone due to its dependency on its natural resource base. This, three periods of protracted drought and two periods coupled with the man-made degradation of natural of famine. A famine in 1992 killed nearly 300,000 people resources due to charcoal production and overgrazing, and displaced 1 out of 5 people.12 By early 1992, it was has increased Somalia’s vulnerability to drought estimated that between one-quarter and one-third and desertification, leading to a marked reduction in of all children had died.13 During the 2011 East Africa food security. Drought, more than a quarter of a million-people died Natural hazards and disasters are endemic in Somalia. in Somalia, half of them children under the age of The increasing spatial and temporal variability of the rainy five.14 The drought resulted in 955,000 Somali refugees and dry seasons as well as floods and droughts result in in neighboring countries15 and devastating economic serious natural disasters, while El Niño-induced changes losses to agriculture and livestock. It also brought famine in weather patterns continue to impact the region. to the south of the country. Somalia is now experiencing Historical trends show droughts occurring regularly at the third drought of this period. 10  ederal Government of Somalia. 2016.. Somalia National Development Plan (2017-2019). F 11  Africa Watch and Physicians for Human Rights (1992). “No Mercy in Mogadishu: The Human Cost of the Conflict & the Struggle for Relief.” 12 The UN definition of a famine is when at least 20 percent of households in an area face extreme food shortages with a limited ability to cope;  acute malnutrition rates exceed 30 percent; and the death rate exceeds two persons per day per 10,000 persons. 13 Clark, Jeffery.1992. “Famine in Somalia and the International Response: Collective Failure”, US Committee for Refugees Issue Paper,  November 1992. 14 FSNAU. 2013. Mortality Among Populations of Southern and Central Somalia affected by severe food insecurity and famine during 2010-2012  15 UNICEF. 2011. Horn of Africa Crisis: Regional Overview: December 2011.  18 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Overview of the Current Drought assistance in 2018. With a third consecutive poor rainfall performance from April-June adversely impacting the In February 2017, the President of the Federal July harvest, food insecurity levels were predicted to Government of Somalia declared a severe nationwide continue largely unchanged through the beginning drought and state of national disaster resulting from of 2018 and could in fact worsen through May 2018 consecutive seasons of poor rains. For the third season due to predictions of a fourth straight below-average in a row since the beginning of 2016, the rains performed rainy season from October to December.23 Significant poorly in Somalia, with the 2017 Deyr (October- areas of Somalia were expected to continue to December) season rainfall also projected to be below experience Phase 4 conditions through early 2018, with average. This would imply a fourth consecutive season famine possible in the worst-case scenario in which of poor rainfall (Gu 2016, Deyr 2016, Gu 2017 and 2017 current food assistance is interrupted.24 The resulting Deyr) in the country.16 The below average rainfall has lifesaving humanitarian needs are presented in the resulted in a significant depletion of water resources 2018 HRP. for agricultural consumption, particularly for livestock sustenance, which forms the backbone of the mainly rural Food insecurity and scarcity of drinking water, coupled economy, accounting for about 65 percent of the Gross with displacement, have contributed to a stark rise Domestic Product (GDP). Livestock body conditions in malnutrition and water-borne disease. Some 1.2 have deteriorated substantially, and atypical livestock million children in Somalia are projected to be acutely deaths have been reported.17 Low rainfall also resulted malnourished in 2018—an increase of 50 percent over in a dramatic drop in cereal production in the South, with the previous year.25 The country is also facing an Acute production in 2016 being the lowest on record since the Watery Diarrhea (AWD)/cholera outbreak in 12 of its 18 beginning of the Somali conflict in 1988,18 and 49 percent regions, with the fatality rate hitting 2.3 percent at one below the long-term average (1995-2015).19 point, more than double the emergency threshold.26 Nearly 5.5 million people continue to be at risk of The ongoing drought has plunged the majority of contracting water-borne diseases like cholera.27 An the population into food insecurity. An estimated 6.2 estimated 926,000 people were displacement by the million people–more than half of the population–are drought from November 2016-September 2017.28 food insecure (IPC Phases 2, 3 and 4)20 and in need of This pressure on already weak infrastructure and humanitarian assistance, mostly in remote rural areas.21 services, especially clean drinking water and sanitation, Of this number, an estimated 3.3 million people are still is contributing to an increased disease burden in in Phases 3 and 422 due to acute food insecurity and the country. thus in need of continued emergency humanitarian 16  SNAU and FEWS NET. 2017.Somalia Food Security Outlook: October 2017 – May 2018. F 17  Livestock-related losses of between USD 1.3 billion and USD 1.7 billion have been reported for the period of the drought – Somalia Economic Update 2017. 18 UNOCHA. 2017. Horn of Africa: Humanitarian Inputs of Drought – Issue 1.  19 Ibid.  20 The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), consisting of five phases, is a means of classify varying phases of  current food security situations based on outcomes on human lives and livelihoods. The phases are: (1) Minimal; (2) Stressed; (3) Crisis; (4) Emergency, and; (5) Famine. 21 UNOCHA. 2017. Somalia Humanitarian Dashboard: June 2017. 22  FEWSNET and FSNAU. 2017. Somalia Food Security Outlook – October 2017 to May 2018: “A fifth consecutive below-average season likely; Famine (IPC Phase 5) risk continues” 23 Ibid.  24 Ibid.  25 UNICEF. 2017. Somalia Situation Report (Sitrep #15): October 2017.  26 Ibid.  27 WHO. 2017. Outbreak Update: Cholera in Somalia: October 2017.  28 UNHCR. 2017. Displacements Dashboard, Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), Internal Displacements During September 2017.  Executive Summary | 19 Box 3: Water Harvesting Changes Lives Mohamed Ismail Yasin, originally from Mayle village in northeast Somalia, fled the region’s prolonged and severe drought with his six-member family and most of his livestock. They had to travel 600km to the nearest dependable water source: a sand dam near Bandarbeyla in neighbouring Bari region. Mohamed is one of hundreds of thousands of people currently displaced by the drought in Somalia. Due to the ongoing drought in Puntland, water prices have been rising dramatically and a family with an average sized livestock herd might pay up to USD 400 per month for water, or USD 7-14 per day depending on livestock size. These rising costs can be catastrophic for families. The Biyo-Gadud sand dam near Banderbeyla is one of the water harvesting structures implemented in Puntland to reduce the impacts of climate change- induced disasters like droughts and floods. Completed by the Puntland Ministry of Environment, through a Global Environment Facility-financed UNDP-supported project, the sand dam is saving livestock and saving lives. For Mohamed Ismail Yasin and his family, the water dam has been a life and money saver. The USD 200 -USD 400 a month he used to be charged for water can now be put towards other basic needs for his family. Story by: Andrea Egan, Salah Dahir, Awil Abdinor, Said Isse, Keelin Fitzgerald and UNDP Somalia/Photos: Said Isse, UNDP Somalia Rainfall Analysis September and were erratic in distribution and amounts in most parts of the country. Figure 2 describes the Rainfall in Somalia has historically been low and monthly rainfall observed in Somalia in comparison to inconsistent. Descending motion of the air and the the long-term average and also illustrates the deficit of resulting low humidity is cited as the main cause for this the 2016-17 rainy season. variability in rainfall. Somalia is further subjected to low rainfall since it is located towards the leeward side of the From September 2016 to June 2016, Somalia received Kenyan and Ethiopian highlands. The orographic and significantly below-average rainfall. During September coastal influences are also regarded as significant and 2016 to December 2016, 54.6 percent less than average affect the pattern of rainfall in the country. rainfall was reported across the affected districts, with 30 out of 42 districts in central and southern Somalia Effective planting rains during the Deyr and Gu season reporting less rainfall than the previous year and 26 out have become erratic, delayed and below average over of 32 districts in Somaliland and Puntland reporting the years as shown in Figure 4. Somalia experiences two less rainfall than in 2016. Overall, Somalia experienced rainy seasons, Deyr and Gu. Deyr lasts from October to 16.62 percent less than the average rainfall with 19 out December while the Gu season extends from April to of 32 districts in Somaliland and Puntland recording less June. In 2016-17, the planting rains started around early rainfall than the previous year. 20 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Executive Summary | 21 Figure 3a: Impact of the Drought Figure 3b: Rain Effect (April 2017-June 2017) (October 31st 2016-June 30th 2017) Source: Courage Services Inc. Source: Courage Services Inc. The 2017 Gu rains were delayed and 20-30 percent below average, with pockets of rainfall as much as 25-50 percent below average along the south. The start of the 2017 Deyr season in October was no better, with rains approximately 50 percent below average in most areas, and predictions of below average rainfall in November and December. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes were expected to persist with a chance of further deterioration through May 2018.29 29 FSNAU and FEWSNET 2017. Somalia Food Security Outlook : October 2017 to May 2018.  22 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Summary of Disaster Effects and Impacts: and 36 percent of the total effects, respectively. The Damages, Losses and Needs next most affected sector is crops, which makes up 10 percent of the total damages and losses. A summary of With damages amounting to USD 1.02 billion and the damages and losses across sectors can be found in losses estimated at USD 2.23 billion, the total effect of Figures 5 and 6. the Somali drought is expected to exceed USD 3.25 billion. The productive sector (Irrigation and Rain-fed Agriculture (irrigation and rain-fed crops) and urban Crops, Livestock and Fisheries) accounts for 59 percent development and municipal services are the sectors of all the effects, while the physical (Water & Sanitation, with the greatest needs, representing 28.3 percent and Environment and Transport), social (Health, Nutrition 16.6 percent of total needs, respectively, followed by and Education), and cross-cutting themes make up 38 water supply and sanitation (10.2 percent), transport (8.4 percent, 1 percent, and 1 percent, respectively. The two percent), livestock (6.4 percent), nutrition (6.3 percent), most affected sectors are Livestock, and Environment & environment, clean natural resources management (5.7 Natural Resource Management, comprising 50 percent percent), and health (4.7 percent). Executive Summary | 23 24 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Executive Summary | 25 Table 1: Summary of Damages, Losses, and Needs Across All Sectors Cost (USD) Damages Losses Needs Productive Sectors Agriculture - Irrigation and Rain-Fed Crops 63,789,000 247,655,790 500,292,663 Agriculture - Livestock 350,687,691 1,262,317,038 110,494,000 Agriculture - Fisheries - 9,965,562 5,650,000 Productive Sectors Total 414,476,691 1,519,938,391 616,436,663 Physical Sectors Water Supply & Sanitation 41,958,000 20,480,616 180,738,000 Transport - - 147,900,000 Environment & Natural Resource Management 564,795,354 610,683,583 99,853,510 Physical Sectors Total 606,753,354 631,164,199 428,491,510 Social Sectors Health - 32,570,088 82,132,713 Nutrition - 3,132,587 104,131,888 Education - - 43,629,471 Social Sectors Total - 35,702,676 229,894,072 Cross-cutting Issues Urban Development & Municipal Services - - 293,273,694 Social Protection & Safety Nets - - 13,183,000 Food Security - - 25,360,000 Livelihoods & Employment - 46,622,167 22,100,000 Gender & Social Inclusion - - 44,200,000 Governance - - 58,360,000 Conflict - - - Displacement & Migration - - 26,000,000 DRR - - 5,000,000 Macro Impact - - 3,500,000 Cross-cutting Issues Total - 46,622,167 490,976,694 Grand Total 1,021,230,045 2,233,427,432 1,765,798,938 26 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © IOM 27 © UNDP Somalia Overview of Pre-Drought Conditions, heads in 2011, 4.8 million in 2013, 5 million in 2014 Drought Impact and Recovery Needs and 5.3 million in 2015, injecting more than USD 360 million and USD 384 million in 2014 and 2015 into the by Sector economy, respectively. Overview of Pre-Drought Conditions Agriculture – Fisheries: Marine fishery dominates the fisheries sector. Coastal communities are heavily Productive Sectors dependent on fishing, carried out mostly by men. Women dominate fish processing, trading, and support Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production: activities, and some women are multiple boat owners, The agriculture sector is Somalia’s second largest although there are no specific numbers available to source of economic activity, employment, and exports, quantify the division of labor in the sector between men with agropastoralists estimated at about 23 percent and women. Fishing is, however, a seasonal activity for of the total population. Smallholder farming accounts many rural dwellers, including pastoralists, and often for 80 percent of total crop output and 70 percent of an important source of supplementary food and cash marketed agricultural produce. In the early part of this income. The impact of the drought is minimal on the decade, Somalia was producing only 22 to 50 percent marine fisheries sector, but has significant potential to of the country’s per capita cereal needs. Agricultural negatively impact the small inland fisheries sector, which imports have steadily increased, reaching almost USD provides essential household food security and some 1.5 billion by 2015, from an annual average of only about income. The focus of this report in terms of impact of USD 82 million in the late 1980s because of failures of the drought is therefore solely on the inland fisheries domestic crop production and high demand due to sub-sector, with some limited analysis of linkages to the rapid population growth and urbanization. marine sector. Agriculture – Livestock: Livestock is the major source Physical Sectors of livelihoods for Somalis. Over 60 percent of the population in Somalia is dependent on livestock for Water Supply & Sanitation: Water resources in their livelihoods. The sector provides food, employment Somalia are dominated by surface water. During the and incomes and contributes 40 percent of the GDP. baseline period of 2013-2015, Somalia Water and Land The livestock exportation rate has increased in the Information Management (SWALIM) estimates that last five years, as Somalia exported 4.7 million animal 28 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment there were around 3,733 water points, 61 percent (2,261 being severely malnourished. The period between Gu sources) of which were reported to be perennial, under 2011 and Deyr 2011 represented the most severe famine normal conditions. Higher proportions of berkads and in Somalia, followed by periods of relative good rains dams supply water for only part of the year compared showing decline of GAM and SAM cases. The onset to other sources. In other parts of the country, rainwater of Gu 2016 showed a rapid deterioration in GAM. As harvesting through the provision of dug outs, Berkads per the recent FSNAU Post-Gu 2017 food security and Mugciids to impound surface runoff during the two and nutrition assessment findings, the current GAM rainy seasons—Gu (April to June) and Deyr (October to population quantified from both IDPs settlements and December)—are a common feature of the water supply Rural Livelihood zones has increased by 20 percent and infrastructure in rural communities. 10 percent, respectively. Transport: The transport sector is considered an enabling Education: Pre-drought season and the signs of the sector for other sectors, providing linkages to regional impacts of the drought can be traced back to early 2016. trade and socio-economic activities. The transport A pre-famine warning was declared in January 2016, sector in Somalia mainly comprises the road sub-sector, for an even larger population at risk than during the aviation and water transport accessing ports. Roads 2011 famine. According to the UNHCR Protection and are the only mode of land transport for the country as Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), the data indicates there are no railways, and therefore, the assessment and possible pattern of intra-regional displacement, which interventions of the sector have been concentrated on affects enrollment. roads. Most roads in Somalia are in poor condition due to lack of proper maintenance caused by long periods of Cross-cutting Themes civil war. Based on visual assessment of satellite imagery, Food Security: Food security is a cross-cutting sector that approximately 7,960 km of roads, or 7.6 percent of the reflects the combined effects of drought on food security total network (including unclassified feeder roads) are related sectors such as agriculture (crop production, considered to be in good or fair condition. access to agricultural employment), livestock (livestock Environment, Clean Energy, Natural Resource Manage- production and reproduction), trade and market prices ment: The environment and natural resources of Somalia (food and livestock prices and purchasing power of the are a source of economic livelihoods for millions of So- population). The average pre-drought (2015) number malis. About 98 percent of Somalia is dry landmass, with of people in acute food security Crisis and Emergency less than 2 percent of the country under water. Depen- (IPC Phases 3 & 4) was 983,000. Following consecutive dence on the sector has had significant impact through- seasons of poor Gu and Deyr, food crisis has worsened out the years, including depletion of vegetation resourc- in rural areas. es and forest cover. Livelihoods & Employment: The labor market is Social Sectors characterized by an over dependence on the livestock sector, which provides employment to approximately 60 Health: The conflict-related fragility of Somalia over percent of the workforce. There is a significant rate of the past two and a half decades has resulted in the underemployment (19 percent), which when combined weakening of the health sector, its systems and its with an open unemployment rate of 22 percent, implies personnel, with a related focus on emergency response that almost half of the work force is comprised of either interventions to recurrent crises. Countrywide, there unemployed or workers in low paying jobs. Youth is less than 1 health facility per 10,000 people, and unemployment is a growing concern, with 48 percent many health posts do not operate fully due to human of youth either unemployed or projected to be in low resource and infrastructure constraints. A pre-drought productive, low paying employment. survey identified a total of 1,074 facilities in existence, of which 106 were found to be non-functional and 169 Social Protection & Safety Nets: Social protection as a unreachable due to conflict and other similar factors. A sector does not exist formally. The bulk of the assistance serious scarcity of health workers is a major challenge provided is project based, delivered mostly through faced by the sector. Approximately 3.3 million people the development partners and NGOs and is reliant on were in need of emergency health services in 2016. unpredictable financing. Significant segments of the Somali population are economically and/or socially Nutrition: Somalia is among the ten countries with the vulnerable to shocks such as the current drought. There highest prevalence of malnutrition in the world, and the is a need for a reliable response beyond the humanitarian third highest in the eastern and southern Africa region, phase with a clear national operating institution for at 17.42 percent Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) social protection limits gains that can be made beyond amongst children under five years (U5), with 3.2 percent short-term assistance. Executive Summary | 29 Gender: In Somalia, women are disadvantaged Conflict: Violent conflict is present in Somalia at several compared to men on all socio-economic and human interrelated levels. The civil war, which erupted in 1991 development indicators. With a Gender Inequality after the overthrow of the Barre regime, and resultant Index of 0.776, the country ranks fourth lowest globally. collapse of the central government pitted armed Social norms and power structures impact the lives factions against each other, often recruited along and opportunities available to different groups of lineage lines. Additionally, violent jihadism was added men and women. With more than 50 percent of to this scenario in the form of the Islamic Courts Union the population under the age of 15, addressing (ICU) from which al-Shabaab subsequently arose. Third, gender inequalities is critical to maximize impact and local communal conflicts, typically over natural resources socioeconomic development and build resilience and such as land, pasture, water rights, or economic rents, sustainable peace. can result in violence, often at the sub-clan level. Fourth, the incidence of criminal, interpersonal violence and Urban Development & Municipal Services: Somalia gender-based violence is high. Much of this conflict has experienced rapid urbanization due to significant has, at times, been exacerbated by the involvement of migrations caused by protracted conflicts, insecurity, Somalia’s neighbors and broader regional and global and cyclical natural disasters. As of September 2017, interests. Together, these factors continue to make there are an estimated 2.1 million protracted internally Somalia the most conflict-affected country in Africa in displaced persons (IDPs) in Somalia, most of whom 2017, with 3,287 recorded fatalities and 1,537 violent reside in urban areas.30 The country is also witnessing events as of September 22nd. Three bomb attacks in increasing numbers of returnees and refugees from Mogadishu in October 2017 – including the October neighboring countries. IDPs have moved to urban 14 attack that killed over 500 – show that the threat centers, settling on public and private lands within and remains significant. in the outskirts of cities. The ad hoc IDP settlements have exacerbated the urban sprawl in the cities, compounding Displacement: Prior to the current drought, over 1.1 pressure on land and service delivery. In the absence of million people were already internally displaced, while security of land tenure, IDPs are highly vulnerable to just one million Somali refugees lived in neighboring forced eviction. countries. Forced displacement has occurred in Somalia due to more than 20 years of internal conflict, Governance: Despite challenges of protracted armed insecurity, political uncertainty, human rights violations conflict and disaster (including droughts famines, and governance failures. These factors are further and floods), the presence of the State has reemerged compounded by cyclical environmental challenges through a new three-tiered federal system – FGS, including periods of acute drought and famine. Many FMS, and district level government. A new National communities have further experienced multiple Development Plan for Somalia (2017-19) has been displacements from the forcible acquisition of their issued for the first time in 30 years. As the government land or forced evictions, particularly in urban areas, works to strengthen core functions and establish contributing to a loss of assets and livelihoods. the foundations of its federalist system, its ability to provide public services remains severely constrained. DRR, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience: Somalia For example, education and health received only 2.5 is highly vulnerable to disasters; the country ranks 15th percent of the federal budget (USD 6.2 million) in 2016, among developing countries at high disaster risk. In of which only 39 percent was disbursed. Government addition to drought, floods are annual phenomena with capacity and resources for drought response are even the most severe occurrence during the months of March- more limited, given that many of the relevant structures May and September-November in the riverine areas along have only recently been established or have yet to be the two rivers, Jubba and Shabelle. In the absence of formed. Revenue mobilization remains insufficient to committed DRR institutions in Somalia, the combination meet demands. of drought and floods compounded by conflict has resulted in full-scale humanitarian crises. Disaster risk management actors and associated response strategies are fragmented and do not necessarily reflect current theory or best practice in disaster risk management. 30 UNOCHA. 2017. Humanitarian Needs Overview: Nov. 2017. 30 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Overview of Impact: Results and Findings Physical Sectors Productive Sectors Water & Sanitation (USD 42.0 million in damages; USD 20.5 million in losses): Damages because of the current Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production drought on water supply and sanitation were mainly on (USD 63.8 million in damages; USD 247.7 million in water sources (boreholes, shallow wells, berkads), while losses): The greatest impact of the drought in the losses resulted largely from the increased burden on agriculture sector has been on crop production losses insufficient household income to pay more for water. arising from both reduced land area under cultivation The cost of vended water has increased by 50 percent and much reduced yields at harvest. Rain-fed staple during the critical drought period. Price data for water food crops (mainly sorghum, cowpeas, and also some vended by tanker trucks, carts and kiosks shows that rain-fed sesame) in the inter-riverine regions of Bay following the failed Deyr rains in November 2016, the and Bokool suffered from a multiple-season lack of average cost of water went up from USD 4 to USD 6 per rains starting in early 2016, and irrigation crops in the cubic meter (m3). In addition to higher average costs, Shabelle valley regions (mainly maize, most sesame, there was greater variability in water prices during the and rice, bananas, and tomatoes, among other crops) period December 2016 to April 2017. Additionally, suffered from the double impact of lack of rains and a multiple shallow wells have dried up, and water levels drying river. The total monetary loss associated with all in most boreholes have decreased to abnormally low four main staple food crops’ output is estimated at USD levels, forcing many boreholes to operate over increased 71.2 million, with maize and sorghum combined at USD hours to meet demand, resulting in greater wear and 34.5 million, sesame at USD 27.5 million and cowpeas at increasing potential damage. USD 9.2 million. Transport: Damages and losses have not been computed Agriculture – Livestock (USD 350.7 million in damages; for the transport sector since the infrastructure was not USD 1.3 billion in losses): Damages in the sector refers directly impacted. Secondary losses experienced for to the death of animals due to lack of water, pasture transport services are difficult to compute and have not and disease prevalence, while loss refers to the effect of been included in the analysis. drought on the production and productivity of livestock. It is estimated that during the drought, Somalia lost over Environment, Clean Energy, and Natural Resource 6.4 million of its total livestock population valued at over Management (USD 564.8 million in damages; USD USD 350 million in addition to losses in productivity in 610.7 million in losses): An estimated 18 percent of the terms of milk yield and body weight valued at about USD total national landmass in natural standing vegetation 1.2 billion. Livestock losses have been very high among on average was lost in the drought period, potentially poor families, averaging 40-60 percent in the north and affecting the lives and livelihoods of an estimated 6 20-40 percent in the center and south. million (or more than 50 percent) of the estimated total population. Some 93,000 tons of topsoil has been Agriculture – Fisheries: (USD 10.0 million in losses): eroded as a direct result of the drought in 2017, resulting Effects of the drought on the sector include loss of in aggregate damages and losses in soil fertility functions income as a direct result of reduced landings and loss and ecosystem services estimated at USD 36 million of assets as families depending on fisheries are forced to and USD 3 million, respectively. The continued effect of sell their fishing gear (lines, nets and/or boat). The latter droughts and inappropriate land use practices have also has been quantified as approximately USD 1.24 million, resulted in widespread destruction of plant life, further assuming that 25 percent of those fishers who earn decreasing animal habitats. an income (part-time/seasonal/full-time) from fishing have lost their assets. Effects also include loss of and/ Health (USD 32.6 million in losses): No damages to the or restricted access to fishing grounds if river beds silt sector can be solely attributable to drought. Losses in up and water/river-flow does not return to a proper level the sector primarily stem from increase in the number for breeding and harboring of fish; and loss of food and of new cases of disease, increase in mobile health units sources of important nutrients due to reduced catch. leading to increased cost of maintaining and managing Executive Summary | 31 these units, and the destruction of secondary health facilities. The outbreak of epidemic-prone diseases such as Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD)/cholera, measles and malaria, some of which are cross-border outbreaks, has occurred due to the drought. Somalia has experienced a large-scale outbreak of cholera since the beginning of 2017. A total of 77,783 cases of AWD and 1,159 deaths (CFR 1.49 percent) were reported in different parts of Somalia from January to September 2017. Of these cases, 58.8 percent have occurred in children below five years of age. Nutrition (USD 3.1 million in losses): Immediate losses were incurred in treating SAM and MAM children and PLW; mass screenings and operational costs; the affected zones and vulnerable groups, including U5s and PLW. The drought and insecurity driven influx of IDPs into major urban centers has compounded the drought effects. UNHCR estimates over 926,000 people were displaced due to the drought from Nov. 2016-Sep. 2017, further straining the limited resources available and leaving the most vulnerable (pregnant/nursing mothers and children) at risk. Education: Drought-related displacement has drastically affected children’s access to education services. As a consequence of the prolonged drought, the sector experienced the following effects: disruption of school calendar in some regions of the country; scarcity of adequate safe water in schools; scarcity of nutritious food for children and their families; and increased enrollments in displacement destinations resulting in stretched existing school resources. On average, the prolonged drought affected an estimated 384,000 school-age children with varying severity scales. For Somalia as a whole, the total proportion of children forced out of schools reached an estimated 8 percent by May 2017. Cross-cutting Themes Food Security: In southern part of Somalia, which is the major crop producing part of the country, the 2016 Gu cereal production was estimated at 65,000 tonnes. This is 49 percent below the long-term average (1995- 2015) and 20 percent below the five-year average for 2011-2015. An estimated USD 399.5 million has been spent on providing food security assistance in response to the current drought. An estimated USD 39.1 million has been spent over the 2016-2017 drought period on increased commercial import of cereals to Somalia. Livelihoods & Employment (USD 46.6 million in losses): Over 900,000 livestock dependent households (pastoralists and agropastoralists) are affected, with an estimated USD 875 million of direct income lost © UNSOM in the livestock sector alone. Impacts are particularly 32 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment significant on women who predominate in livestock strained key sectors, particularly land, housing, health, dependent chains, with an estimated loss across 4,500 education, water supply and sanitation, protection micro enterprises/kiosks of USD 26 million. The drought and jobs. Ad hoc IDP settlements in the outskirts of has exacerbated what was already a dire situation in cities have exacerbated the urban sprawl in the cities, relation to employment and livelihoods. Jobs and compounding pressure on land and service delivery. In incomes in related value chains have also been reduced. the absence of security of land tenure, IDPs are highly Combining the estimated numbers of pastoralists vulnerable to forced eviction. Most of the drought and agropastoralist who have ceased their livelihood, induced IDPs currently reside on government or private with data on IDPs, humanitarian assessments and land and do not have the authorization to build more the loss of national GDP, it is estimated that the open permanent types of shelter. Uncontrolled and informal unemployment rate is over 50 percent. exploitation of aquifers threaten sustainability, safety and access to water supplies in the city. Social Protection & Safety Nets: The drought impact is reflected in the extent and nature of vulnerability, poverty Governance: The drought has placed significant strain or risk of falling into poverty, and lack of autonomy, on already stretched Government resources. It has discrimination and marginalization. Significant segments understandably diverted attention from long-term of the Somali population are economically and/or institutional strengthening towards the provision of socially vulnerable to shocks such as the current drought. lifesaving support. However, the impact on public services was mitigated by the very limited role the Gender: The drought has exacerbated the existing Government plays in service delivery. Nonetheless, the vulnerabilities and social marginalization of women and Government has persisted in implementing reforms and has induced massive displacement, with the majority of strengthening core capacity at federal, state and district the displaced women and children. Prolonged exposure levels, with the support of the international community, to the drought has extended traditional coping strategies, albeit with slower than expected results. such as migration and family separation, contributing to school drop-outs of boys and girls and necessitating Conflict: The drought in Somalia has exacerbated women to bear disproportionate responsibilities. The conflicts over pasturelands and natural resources. combination of increased travel distances in search of “Conflict or violence” was the most frequently cited of water and firewood, additional unpaid care work in the the difficulties or shocks in the survey undertaken for face of increased drought-related diseases and the need this assessment in October 2017, with almost one in to adopt an income earning role has resulted in increased four households having experienced conflict or violence work burden for women and increased drop-out rate for in the previous month. Drought and conflict, both girls. During the drought, vulnerable people, including independently and in combination, cause displacement. child and female-headed households, are exposed to The two are so closely intertwined as drivers of protection risks such as forced evictions, discrimination displacement that it is not always possible or meaningful based on status and family separations due to lack of to distinguish between them. Of the 1.1 million internally support structures and ungoverned settlements; giving displaced between Nov. 2016 and Sep. 2017, 171,000 are them limited access to protective shelter. As women classified as “conflict/security” related, and 926,000 as and girls travel longer distances without protection to “drought related.” “Conflict-driven” displacement was find water, food, livelihoods and other resources, more geographically focused, with 71 percent being particularly IDPs traveling outside formal or informal displaced from just one of Somalia’s 18 regions, Lower settlement areas, they are more exposed to gender- Shabelle in South West State. based violence (GBV). Displacement: The current drought, combined with Urban Development & Municipal Services: The 2016-2017 increasing incidence of conflict, has rapidly accelerated drought has resulted in around 926,000 newly displaced rates of internal displacement in Somalia. While people between November 2016 and September 2017, household data indicate a relatively even share of male- with many hosted in settlements in Mogadishu (161,000 and female-headed households (48 and 52 percent people), Baidoa (174,000 people) and Kismayo (42,000 respectively) among the newly displaced, nearly 65 people). These cities alone host almost 40 percent of percent of those displaced fall under the age of 18. the total drought-related displacements. The large and Women and children under the age of 18 therefore rising influx of drought-related displaced people into account for more than three-quarters (84 percent) of Somalia’s urban areas puts additional stress on already those displaced.31 Recent displacements extend primarily 31 Ibid. Executive Summary | 33 from rural to urban and peri-urban areas. Receiving 29 berkads require complete replacement while 380 regions with the highest concentrations of displaced boreholes, 728 shallow wells and 54 berkads need to be include Bay, Benadir, Mudug and Lower Shabelle rehabilitated. respectively, with heaviest concentrations in urban catchment areas in and around Baidoa, Mogadishu, Transport (USD 147.9 million): The main objective of Galkayo and Kismayo. The influx of displaced to urban recovery in the transport sector is to provide accessibility areas has compounded existing pressures in access to to drought-affected areas by maintaining and services, land, and other resources, while reinforcing rehabilitating roads that are in bad condition to allow for earlier patterns of deprivation, marginalization relief initiatives to reach the intended beneficiaries. This and exclusion. will need to follow a Building Back Better concept to build resilience to future climate shocks. Some short-term interventions might entail provision of trucking capacity Overview of Recovery Objectives and Needs to deliver relief items to affected communities on time. Productive Sectors Rehabilitation and reconstruction of roads and bridges will be done in the short- and medium-term, as some of Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production the interventions require proper schemes incorporating (USD 500.3 million): Needs for the sector include: (i) procurement of works and options for labor-intensive rehabilitation of prewar flood control and irrigation works, creating employment opportunities for those infrastructure along the two major rivers in southern and affected and full reconstruction in some cases. Recovery central Somalia and their expansion in both northwestern needs would have to be synchronized with other sectors, and northeastern regions; (ii) more modern storage especially the trade and agriculture sectors. techniques and facilities; (iii) rehabilitation of prewar trunk and rural roads to improve transportation of inputs Environment, Clean Energy, and Natural Resource to farms and of produce to markets; (iv) institutional Management (USD 99.9 million): Sector recovery needs and human capacity building, and (v) improved access include improving: (a) vegetative biomass productivity to and adoption of productivity-enhancing and resilient and fodder availability; (b) biodiversity; (c) impacts on technologies (Climate Smart Agriculture practices). soil quality and soil resources; and (d) household energy and fuelwood situation. Suggested direct interventions Agriculture – Livestock (USD 110.5 million): Needs for include scaling up evergreen agriculture (EGA) by the sector include: (i) Short term - veterinary services integrating with trees-on-farm agroforestry systems for provision; feed and water provision; and restocking/ better resilience, as well as rehabilitation of important redistribution in selected districts; (ii) Medium term vegetative resources badly affected by drought by -rehabilitation of livestock watering infrastructure promoting the adoption of sustainable, low-cost on the rangelands, rehabilitation of the rangelands land restoration techniques such as farmer-managed and enhancing management; improving laboratory natural regeneration (FMNR) and integrated soil fertility facilities for confirmatory disease diagnosis and animal management systems (ISFM) for drylands. food residue testing; (iii) Long term - strengthening institutional capacity for clinical veterinary services; feed Health (USD 82.1 million): Recovery needs for the and water development, diversification into poultry sector include: (a) ensuring that the current health policy production and bee keeping; genetic research and strategic plan is implemented effectively, putting in place breeding; and strengthened regulatory capacity of a strategic human resource plan that will increase the veterinary services to supervise and regulate quarantine current level of HRH; (b) implementing a comprehensive operations and certification for trade. health services delivery plan by increasing the number of functional health facilities; (c) increasing the number Agriculture – Fisheries (USD 5.7 million): Needs for the of mobile clinics and specific community interventions sector include: (i) distribution of fish nets; (ii) development such as immunization campaigns and AWD/cholera of fish landing sites; (iii) development of spet fed desert awareness campaigns; (d) increasing the availability of aquaculture; and (iv) development of dried fish. treatment points for both primary and basic secondary treatments; and (e) increasing resilience through Physical Sectors better social protection, and gender and vulnerable population targeting. Water & Sanitation (USD 180.7 million): Water and sanitation sector recovery needs entail: (a) water Nutrition (USD 104.1 million): The recovery needs for supply and sanitation infrastructure rehabilitation; (b) the sector will include: (a) strengthening prevention institutional strengthening and capacity building; and and management of acute malnutrition in children (c) construction of new water supply infrastructure. It is U5 and PLW; (b) timely procurement and provision of estimated that 202 boreholes, 387 shallow wells, and treatment and medical supplies; (c) regular provision 34 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment and implementation of vitamin A supplementation and to promote women’s participation and leadership is deworming; (d) nutrition surveillance; (e) monitoring required. National- and district-level gender profiles and evaluation; (f) capacity building, (g) procurement need to be developed to inform programming. of materials required for child and maternal health and Furthermore, noting the disproportionate risk exposure (h) nutrition promotion. In view of high number of IDP of women and girls, targeted action addressing their communities as a result of both drought and conflict, specific needs is needed. increased provision of mobile treatments and treatment centers is essential. Urban Development & Municipal Services (USD 293.3 million): Recovery and resilience activities will focus Education (USD 43.6 million): The sector recovery on complementing activities in the HRP to support a measures are aimed at restoring learning to most affected quicker transition to durable shelter solutions for IDPs. regions along with better preparedness and response This will include addressing some of the underlying systems. The recovery needs for the sector include: structural deficiencies that perpetuate and compound expanding learning spaces; rapid teacher recruitment the challenge of providing durable solutions, such as and training; distribution of learning materials; land tenure issues, improved planning to better link establishing community education committees; and sites to services and better coordination of services data collection tools. across different populations and sectors. Access to basic services should be improved through injecting Food Security (USD 25.4 million): To address persistent capacity to coordinate and plan in local government and high levels of acute food insecurity, the recovery institutions, particularly at municipal and district levels. needs include: (a) improved food storage; (b) improved In the medium term, assistance should have a broader food security early warning systems (c) support for the focus to improve urban resilience by investing in the development of a national food security strategy; (d) most affected sectors such as housing, water supply and support for the development of a national poverty sanitation, health, education, protection, as well as job reduction strategy. creation in cities that have experienced or are likely to experience a large influx of IDPs, while strengthening Livelihoods & Employment (USD 22.1 million): The the capacity of the sub-national governments to provide recovery strategy targets support to women and adequate service delivery. In the long-term (beyond 3 youth, with measures to be taken in education, skills years), support should focus on four key areas: regulating development, Labor Market Information Services (LMIS), service delivery; streamlining intergovernmental and entrepreneurship and finance. Support should be relations; improving municipal and district urban provided to women enterprises by supporting women planning capacities and approaches; and strengthening entrepreneurs across all sectors, including livestock, institutions related to land and housing. to organize themselves into associations, cooperatives and networks. Governance (USD 58.4 million): Recovery needs for the Governance sector focus on capacity development Social Protection & Safety Nets (USD 13.2 million): The for key national institutions to lead, manage, and sector needs include: (a) bringing greater coherence to monitor programming for drought recovery over the existing channels and increasing efficiency by increasing medium term. Needs include bringing approximately government leadership in the sector; (b) developing 250 expert personnel on board to contribute to and pilot systems, policies and processes that can serve as manage the daily functions for project development, a basis for a sustainable social safety nets program; (c) implementation, and oversight, supported by the building capacity at state and district level to start to appropriate equipment, facilities, and training activities. engage subnational government actors in monitoring, Other key governance functions for recovery that need vetting and targeting activities; (d) leading research support are information and database management, and analysis for the development of targeting and facilitating access to finance for social entrepreneurs, registration systems, building on the lessons of current project development, and establishment and capacity successful programs. development of disaster management institutions. Gender (USD 44.2 million): As a cross-cutting issue, Conflict: To address drivers of conflict, the report’s gender needs to be mainstreamed across all sectors conflict analysis supports the priority needs outlined and included in the recovery plan. The collection and use estimated in the Urban Development and Displacement of sex- and age-disaggregated data and strengthening sector analyses to address urban poverty and gender-responsive governance in the short, medium and marginalization, including needs unique to IDPs. These long term will facilitate the design and implementation needs should focus on land policy, infrastructure, shelter, of gender sensitive policies and interventions. Specific service delivery, livelihoods, and the development of support to facilitate women’s voices to be heard and smaller urban centers. Executive Summary | 35 Displacement (USD 26 million): Drought recovery Humanitarian Impact, Immediate Response, programming should lay the foundation for the and Linkages to the Humanitarian achievement of durable solutions for displaced Response Plan populations, refugee returns and affected communities. Recovery interventions should align with Government- The humanitarian situation in Somalia has been led efforts to address displacement, including deteriorating from season to season since 2016 developmental priorities to enable durable solutions primarily due to the successive failure of seasonal highlighted in the NDP, as well as build on existing rains. Various state and regional level administrations in initiatives to address displacement, such as the Durable Somalia issued individual appeals for support with the Solutions Initiative. Recovery programming should drought response. The President of Somalia issued an address i) urban solutions, including sustainable appeal for support from the international community on integration in urban and peri-urban areas, and; ii) November 12, 2016. rural solutions, including return and (re)integration in rural/remote areas (including IDPs who intend to In response to the drought, an HRP was developed for return to these areas/places of origin, “stayees”/host 2017 to save lives, ensure the protection of the most communities, and various vulnerable and minority vulnerable, strengthen resilience, support the provision groups). For populations in urban or peri-urban areas, of basic services and enable durable solutions. Given short-term support will focus on addressing basic needs, the rapid deterioration of humanitarian conditions access to basic services, protection services, and support and pre-famine conditions in the country, a large- for early recovery, including cash transfers, medical scale Operational Plan for Famine Prevention was assistance and access to basic livelihoods. A medium- implemented during the first half of 2017, as part of to long-term recovery strategy will include investments the overall 2017 Somalia HRP, to urgently scale-up in infrastructure and services delivery, improved housing humanitarian actions. and land tenure security, promotion or restoration of livelihood opportunities and interventions to strengthen The core of the response strategy has been to prevent protection and social cohesion. Recovery should also famine, particularly through the provision of food, necessarily include support for building capacity and water, nutrition and health services, shelter, protection, legitimacy of state and local authorities to promote education and livelihood support, including conditional recovery and resilience of IDP populations and to lead and unconditional cash transfers, as well as meeting long-term durable solutions, including through planned critical needs related to camp coordination and urban expansion, land management, dispute resolution management in IDP settlements. To achieve its aim, the and inclusive planning. HRP focuses on four strategic objectives: DRR, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience (USD Life-saving: Provide life-saving
and life-sustaining • 5 million): There are four areas of disaster risk integrated multi-sectoral assistance to reduce acute reduction that require further support and investment: humanitarian needs and reduce excess mortality (a) strengthening governance, coordination and among the most vulnerable people. participation; (b) building the capacity of national DRM Nutrition: Reduce acute malnutrition levels
in • institutions; (c) establishment of early warning and settlements for internally displaced and host information management systems; (d) harmonizing communities through integrated multi-sectoral existing institutional, legislative and policy frameworks; emergency response. (e) exploring disaster risk financing to strengthen Protection: Reinforce the protection of the • resilience to recurrent drought. displaced and other vulnerable groups at risk. Resilience: Support the protection and restoration • of livelihoods, promote basic services to build resilience to recurrent shocks, and catalyze more sustainable solutions. 36 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment The HRP also identified the following key Protect freedom of movement, prevent forced • cross-cutting issues: evictions, and promote and support the return and reintegration of the internally displaced persons Enhance collaboration with development partners • and returnees. on reducing risk and ending need, and explore options for a more coordinated approach to Humanitarian coordination addressing immediate emergency needs and underlying causes in a more sustainable manner A strong humanitarian coordination system is in place in Somalia, including the HCT, Inter-Cluster Coordination Strengthen coordination and engagement with • Group (ICCG) consisting of nine clusters, regional national NGOs and local authorities, including ICCGs, national and regional humanitarian coordination emerging states forums, and sectoral emergency sub-groups. Drought • Develop a robust, principled and accountable Operations Coordination Centers (DOCCs) are in system based on seasonal planning and early place in Mogadishu, Baidoa and Garowe to enhance warning based on reliable data that advocates and cooperation between partners and linkages among monitors for appropriate responses to emergencies response components. Sustain advocacy on the humanitarian situation in • The HCT works closely with the Federal Ministry Somalia to ensure that international attention and of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management funding is available to respond to humanitarian (MoHADM), the Somalia NGO consortium, local needs presenting the situation in a way that communities and local level administrations, members is complementary and linked to the centrality of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), of protection development partners and the private sector. Improve humanitarian access, including by • enhancing analysis of access constraints in A large number of humanitarian partners are involved in priority areas and by addressing the delivery of humanitarian assistance on the ground in administrative impediments. all 18 regions of the country. More than 266 humanitarian partners with physical presence in Somalia are actively implementing humanitarian activities in Somalia. Response priorities The response strategy was developed based on the identification of the needs of the most vulnerable Funding people, and with response prioritization based on The donor community generously contributed USD vulnerability and chronic needs. Accordingly, the 862 million for the implementation of the humanitarian Somalia Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) set the response plan from Jan. through Sep. 2017. following response priorities: This represents 57 percent of the 2017 HRP’s USD 1.5 billion budget.32 Protect the rights of children and victims of • gender-based violence, as well as civilian victims of Large-scale humanitarian assistance during 2017 has violations in the conduct of armed conflict; enhance been critical in reducing food consumption gaps and protection information monitoring and analysis in averting famine. However, there remains an elevated systems; and promote respect of humanitarian risk of famine (IPC Phase 5) due to the combination of principles by military actors; severe food consumption gaps, high acute malnutrition, • Prevent and treat communicable diseases; control and the high disease burden. Therefore, humanitarian outbreaks; and increase immunization coverage, assistance will be required through 2018. At the same especially for measles and polio; time, it is necessary to phase-in recovery programs with sustainable solutions for Somalia to strengthen Tackle food insecurity and prevent food security • resilience and address the root causes of drought and crises through diversified programming, including the underlying vulnerabilities. The recovery strategy will resilience building; build on and complement the HRP while also supporting Bring malnutrition and mortality rates below • the NDP, which aims to create a conducive environment ‘emergency’ levels through a holistic approach for sustainable development. and integrated health, WASH, nutrition, shelter and food security programs, especially in IDP settlements; 32 As of November 2017 - UNOCHA. Executive Summary | 37 The 2018 HRP partners in Somalia require an estimated USD 1.5 billion to assist 5.4 million people, prioritizing saving Based on assessed needs and projections for 2018, the lives, protection of the most vulnerable, strengthening core of the humanitarian response strategy outlined resilience, provision of basic services and enabling in the 2018 HRP is focused on providing urgent life- durable solutions for the displaced. saving assistance and protection, with an emphasis on integrated, localized, multi-sector service provision. To The alignment between the HRP and the DINA/ ensure efficiencies and better address the growing needs, RRF processes provides the framework for bringing humanitarian partners continue to adjust targeting and the “New Way of Working”33 to Somalia. Since the improve quality of multi-sectoral response. Prioritisation international community reengaged in the country after of geographical areas will be reviewed on a continuous the transition of power to the Federal Government in basis, and targeting will be adjusted to allow for flexible 2012, development partners have been working in a scale-up in hotspots, and transition to relief and recovery context of protracted humanitarian need. The period where conditions permit. of drought over 2016-2017—which is expected to Maintaining high levels of efficiency, including the continue into 2018—still has further sharpened the extensive use of cash-based programming where focus on the need to seek development solutions possible, is central to the response strategy. With for structural change while continuing to provide deployment of mechanisms such as the DOCCs in lifesaving interventions. Mogadishu, Baidoa and Garowe, as well as enhanced By bringing the HRP, DINA and RRF processes together, coordination with FGS and FMS authorities on the Government has enabled a shift away from the prioritisation of areas and needs, humanitarian partners traditional dichotomy of humanitarian and development are making efficient use of the available resources interventions and instead has brought all stakeholders to prevent famine. Improved communication with together around a common objective: to respond to the communities and awareness-raising of services provided needs of the Somali people in a way that can ultimately to the most vulnerable are also allowing for better reach lead to greater self-sufficiency of the state, the society of existing emergency Programs. In 2018 humanitarian and most importantly, the Somali people themselves. 33 A  genda for Humanity. 2016. ‘Recognizing that humanitarian and development actors, governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and private sector actors have been progressively working better together to meet needs for years, the New Way of Working aims to offer a concrete path to remove unnecessary barriers to such collaboration to enable meaningful progress. The New Way of Working can be described, in short, as working over multiple years, based on the comparative advantage of a diverse range of actors, including those outside the UN system, towards collective outcomes. Wherever possible, those efforts should reinforce and strengthen the capacities that already exist at national and local levels’. (https://www.agendaforhumanity.org/initiatives/5358) 38 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNSOM 39 The Human Impact The overall impact of the drought in Somalia has taken its toll on the affected population in terms of basic living conditions as well as education, water, sanitation and basic healthcare services. The figure below indicates the deprivations resulting from the drought. According to the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) for Somalia, an estimated 82 percent of Somalis were in multidimensional poverty before the drought.34 Given the large deprivations caused by the drought in Somalia, multidimensional poverty will increase significantly in the country as a result of the drought, especially in the most affected regions. 34 UNDP, 2012. Human Development Report 2012. 35 WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP). 2017. 2015 WASH data for Somalia. 36 UNICEF.2017.Somalia Situation Report (Sitrep #15): October 2017. 37 WHO. 2015. Trends in Maternal Mortality: 1990 to 2015; UNICEF. 2017. Levels and Trends in Child Mortality. 38 From January to August 2017 – UNOCHA.2017. Somalia: Drought Response Situation Report No. 16. September 2017 39 WHO. 2017. Somalia Crisis: Update and Funding Request, May 2107. 40 UNHCR. 2017. Displacements Dashboard, Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), Internal Displacements During September 2017. 40 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia/Dreamcatcher The drought’s impact on livelihoods and food security The Human Impact Framework has also had a direct bearing on the levels of poverty in the country. According to the World Bank’s 2016 survey, The human impact of the drought in Somalia was every second Somali lives in poverty, and almost 1 in 3 measured through six core indicators: faces conditions of extreme poverty.41 Living conditions and access to basic services: 1.  Somalia’s standing on the Human Development Index measured as people’s access to healthcare, water, (HDI), which combines indicators of health, education sanitation, education, cooking fuel, housing, and income, was already strikingly low at 0.285, ranking and basic household assets (based on the it among the lowest in the world in 2010. It is likely that Multidimensional Poverty Index) the human development trend will worsen. Low life Livelihoods and income: measured in terms of 2.  expectancy in Somalia is linked to high rates of infant access to livelihoods (all occupations), income and mortality, one of the highest rates of maternal mortality productive assets and resources in the world, and the spread of preventable diseases such as tuberculosis (TB), malaria and measles. Food security and nutrition: measured in terms of 3.  access and food security outcomes 41 World Bank. 2017. Somali Poverty Profile 2016: Findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey.  The Human Impact | 41  ender equality: measured as the differential 4. G a result of the drought, and the scarcity of water has impact on women and girls prompted abnormal migrations and increased the cost 5. P  rofile of populations affected and vulnerable of potable water.43 The average distance to water points groups: measured as the differential impact and has increased to 50km, with some communities making access to resources by different social groups a round trip of up to 125km for water. The lack of water and competition for this scarce resource is also one of  overty and human development: impact 6. P the triggers for conflict in Somalia. measured in relation to the poverty line, the Multidimensional Poverty Index, and the HDI. The drought has affected not only the quantity but For the core indicators of the human impact, the also the quality of drinking water. There are noticeable assessment follows the cascading effects, beginning weaknesses in the water sector related to water quality with the pre-existing human development conditions, testing and monitoring in Somalia, which is compounded considering the disaster’s immediate effects, and by the relatively poor understanding of how the water evaluating people’s coping strategies to determine the supplies become contaminated and the risks associated human impact outcomes as well as the potential future with the use of contaminated water. consequences. The cost of water has increased by 50 percent during While this chapter provides an overview of the human critical dry periods. Following the failed rains in impact of the drought measured against the human November 2016 the average cost of water went up from impact framework, a more detailed discussion related to USD 4 to USD 6/scubic meter (m3).44 There was greater the subject matter herein can be found in the summary variability in water prices during the period December reports for the relevant sectors and cross-cutting themes 2016 to April 2017, with some areas facing prices of later in this report. over USD 50/m3 such as in Laas Caanood and Xudun. In Gedo region in southern Somalia, 90 percent of villages are now reliant on unsafe water sources for drinking and Deprivations in Living Conditions and domestic purposes. Access to Basic Services Access to basic healthcare services Access to water and sanitation The effect of the drought on health adds to the pre- Water in Somalia is a scarce resource even without existing poor health status of Somalis resulting from drought. The country’s water supply comes mainly a healthcare system that is largely lacking. Prior to from boreholes, shallow wells and berkads, and access the current drought, the under-5 mortality rate and to water and sanitation is very low (see Figure 10). The the maternal mortality ratio were among the highest majority of open wells, berkads and some shallow in Africa. During 2017, there were two outbreaks of boreholes in Somalia are likely to be contaminated communicable diseases in the country, cholera and due to the common practice of open defecation and measles. The situation has improved for cholera but the absence of a system for controlling water quality.42 there remains concern over a possible resurgence, while Water sources have been increasingly drying out as measles cases still remain at epidemic levels and may 42 U  NICEF. 2016. Situation Analysis of Children in Somalia 2016; World Bank. 2017. Somali Poverty Profile 2016: Findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey. 43 UNOCHA. 2017. “Horn of Africa: Impact of Conflict and Drought Crisis on Women and Girls,” March 2017  44 Collated by FSNAU from various sources (FEWSNET, SWALIM, FSNAU)  42 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment worsen acute malnutrition and mortality among children if not treated.46 The population is in need of primary healthcare, emergency reproductive health, nutrition and trauma care. There is also a need for treatment of disease outbreaks, case management of communicable diseases, prevention of outbreaks, and emergency obstetric and neonatal care. Increasing morbidity resulting from the drought increases household expenditures on healthcare, although expenditure on healthcare varies among income groups. Average annual expenditures in healthcare are about USD 2 and USD 8 per person among poor and better-off households, respectively.47 Poorer households, unable to afford the increasing needs for healthcare, are among the most vulnerable to disease.48 45 F  SNAU and FEWS NET. 2017. Food Security Outlook: June 2017 to January 2018; Inter Agency Working Group on Disaster Preparedness for East and Central Africa (IAWG). 2016. Lesson Learned? An Urgent Call for Action In Response to the Drought Crisis in the Horn of Africa; Maxwell D., et al. 2016. Facing Famine: Somali Experiences in the Famine of 2011. Food Policy 65 46 Health Cluster Somalia. 2017. Health Cluster Bulletin: August 2017; UNICEF. Somalia Situation Report (Sitrep #15).:October 2017; UNICEF. 2017.  Pre-famine Briefing Note: September 2017. 47 World Bank. 2017. Somali Poverty Profile 2016: Findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey.  48 Ibid.  49  FSNAU and FEWS NET. 2017. Food Security Outlook: June 2017 to January 2018; Inter Agency Working Group on Disaster Preparedness for East and Central Africa (IAWG). 2016. Lesson Learned? An Urgent Call for Action In Response to the Drought Crisis in the Horn of Africa; Maxwell D., et al. 2016. Facing Famine: Somali Experiences in the Famine of 2011. Food Policy 65. The Human Impact | 43 Access to education Access to housing The education and protection of children is being affected The drought has forced large numbers of Somalis to by the drought as they increasingly drop out of school to migrate from their homes to IDP settlements in search help families cope with the drought, particularly to fetch of humanitarian assistance, depriving them of the most food and water. About 80,000 children have already basic living conditions. An estimated 926,000 people stopped attending school, and an additional 121,000 across Somalia were displaced between November 2016 more are at risk of dropping out.50 School drop-outs add and September 2017 due to drought.54 Women and to Somalia’s existing low levels of school enrollment and children under the age of 18 account for more than three- education attainment and, furthermore, place children quarters (76 percent) of those displaced.55 Although at risk of child labor, child marriage and recruitment by drought-related displacement has affected all regions armed groups. of Somalia, the majority of the people displaced due to drought are in Bay and Benadir Regions. Displacement Poverty is strongly associated with children’s enrollment of such a large segment of the population has a serious in school. About 45 percent of children living in poor impact on access to housing in Somalia. The displaced households are enrolled in school compared to 63 are already among the most vulnerable and deprived, percent of children living in better-off households.51 and the increasing number of displaced due to drought Poor households spend on average USD 25 per year is deepening poverty and vulnerability. in education, compared to USD 47 for the non-poor.52 School enrollment and educational attainment also varies by livelihood group and by gender. For example, Summary of deprivations in numbers less than a quarter of pastoralist children attend formal The overall impact of the drought in Somalia has taken schools in Somalia, compared to half in the wider its toll on basic living conditions as well as on education, population, due to their nomadic lifestyle and to poverty. water, sanitation and basic health services. The human Less than 50 percent of girls attend primary school, impact in numbers is summarized in Figure 14. and only 25 percent of women aged 15 to 24 were literate in 2006.53 50  NICEF. 2017. Somalia Situation Report (Sitrep #15): October 2017; UNICEF. 2017. Pre-famine Briefing Note: September 2017. U 51  World Bank. 2017. Somali Poverty Profile 2016: Findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey. 52 Ibid. 53 Ibid. UNHCR. 2017. Displacements Dashboard, Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), Internal Displacements During September 2017. 54  Draws upon the DINA section on Displacement. 55  44 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Livelihoods: Agriculture Losses, Box 4: Water, Food and Security for Unemployment and Loss of Income Displaced Communities and Productive Resources Agricultural losses and depletion of Asha Nur is a 25 year-old mother of four. She productive resources was displaced from Lower Shabelle by internal conflict and drought eleven months ago. Asha Livelihoods in Somalia are dominated primarily by lost two of her children to cholera as she tried livestock, as well as by crop production, both of which to find IDP camps that could support her with are important for subsistence and cash income. The security, clean water and food for her family. drought is therefore a significant shock for large portions Like many female-headed households in of the population. The current drought has deprived Somalia, Asha is the sole breadwinner, and affected households of their livelihoods, income and she makes her income by washing clothes for vital productive assets, leading to severe food access other IDPs. constraints and acute food insecurity. It is estimated that during the drought, Somalia lost over 6.4 million Understanding the importance of clean water of its total livestock population, a massive loss of one and nutritious food for any child’s growth and of the principal resources of Somalis.56 Losses in crop development, the Ministry of Humanitarian production and livestock have driven food prices well Affairs and Disaster Management provides above the average and lowered household access to food for Asha’s family and other displaced food and income. people who live in the Al-Hidaya camp in Mogadishu. While grateful for government support, Asha urges the government to Unemployment and income loss support IDPs through cash grants, to enable The livestock sector is central to the economic and cultural them to start small businesses. In Asha’s life of the Somali people. The sector provides food and case, she believes this would help her buy income to over 60 percent of the country’s population.57 more buckets to do laundry, giving her the Almost half the workforce is either unemployed or work ability to buy her own food and send her in low paying jobs, and youth unemployment is a growing children to school. concern, estimated to be at 48 percent. The drought has exacerbated what was already a dire situation in Source: Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and relation to employment and livelihoods. It is estimated Disaster Management that pastoralists have lost about USD 540 million in their livelihoods and income as a result of the drought, or about 70 percent of their average annual cash incomes. Agropastoralists have suffered losses as well, estimated combination with other strategies such as accessing at USD 330 million, which represents 30 percent of their financial and other assets through social networks. average annual incomes.58 Jobs have also been lost and Borrowing money to cope with disaster shocks is a incomes reduced in related and unrelated value chains common strategy, but it is closely linked to remittances and businesses. from diaspora relatives, which is also another key livelihood strategy for most homes. For example, while waiting for remittances, families borrow money, food, Coping Strategies or other assets as a common short-term strategy. While The coping strategies adopted by drought-affected migration is traditionally linked to a pastoralist livelihood, households include the sale of productive assets like when food and employment opportunities are limited, farming land, breeding stock, and draught animals. out-migration increases as a coping strategy to adapt to Some common coping strategies include out-migration the shocks.59 Coping strategies adopted by the drought- to look for food or work, borrowing money, and affected populations are shown in percentage terms in borrowing other assets. Migration is often applied in Figure 15 below. 56 Draws upon DINA section on Livestock 57 FSNAU and FEWS NET. 2017. Somalia Livestock Price Bulletin: October 2017  58 Draws upon DINA section on Livelihoods. 59 USAID, SDRI, Benadir University, CRS, and Institute for Disaster & Fragility Resilience, GWU. 2017. Data-Driven Resilience Programming with  Communities: Women’s Empowerment And Food Security. The Human Impact | 45 The figure below summarizes the drought’s effect on livelihoods, the main coping strategies and the overall human impact. 60  SNAU and FEWS NET. 2017. Food Security Outlook: June 2017 to January 2018; Inter Agency Working Group on Disaster Preparedness for East F and Central Africa (IAWG). 2016. Lesson Learned? An Urgent Call for Action In Response to the Drought Crisis in the Horn of Africa; Maxwell D., et al. 2016. Facing Famine: Somali Experiences in the Famine of 2011. Food Policy 65. 46 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Food Security: Food Access Migration and Female-headed households: The and Malnutrition extended absence of males due to drought and abnormal migration has resulted in a significant rise The tight supply of cereals and rise in the cost of the in the number of female-headed households, as well food basket has severely constrained people’s access to as households in which women become the primary food, producing acute and widespread food insecurity breadwinners for the family. and a deterioration of the nutrition situation in Somalia. As a result, most rural livelihood zones in Somalia are Domestic and productive work: The lack of water classified as in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC and firewood and the absence of men due to drought Phase 4). Even prior to the drought, the nutritional status migration have increased women’s work in the household of Somali children was among the worst in the world, and their role in obtaining resources to support the with under-nutrition thought to be the underlying cause home. Women and girls travel increased distances in over a third of under-five child deaths. Subsequently, in search of water, in addition to their domestic work- a significant increase in both SAM and GAM cases has related responsibilities. been detected during the drought. Protection: Gender-based violence such as intimate partner violence, sexual and physical assault has Gender increased with the drought, especially among the internally displaced population. The GBVIMS reported a The drought has had a disproportionate impact on the 9 percent increase in incidence from January-June 2017. livelihoods, safety and wellbeing of women and girls in Somalia. The Somali customary system is based on a Reproductive health: Somalia’s maternal mortality ratio clear gender division of labor, and Somali women have is among the highest in the world, and the drought unequal access to resources, opportunities, power and increases the risk for pregnant and lactating women. decision-making.61 Therefore, droughts and other shocks It is estimated that over 130,000 pregnant women have a differential impact on women and men, reflecting need critical health assistance.63 Without access to their particular roles and responsibilities at home and reproductive health services, women face an increased in the economy, and coping strategies differ between risk of life-threatening complications. genders. Such differences are summarized below, and Violence against women cuts across all social and need to be taken into account in the recovery process to economic strata and is deeply embedded in Somali ensure that the needs of women and girls are addressed. culture. Although rape and sexual violence against Livelihoods: There is a division of labor between women women and girls is strongly linked to conflict and and men in Somalia that influences the impact of the displacement in Somalia, parts of Somalia where there is drought on their respective roles. In pastoralist and relative peace also witness high levels of gender-based agropastoralist communities, men are responsible for violence, creating long-term threats to security and to large livestock such as camels and cattle, while women women’s health.64 are responsible for raising small livestock such as goats and sheep, and for milk production. Women are involved in the informal sector, especially micro-enterprises, small trade and markets,62 while men are generally more involved in farm labor and formal employment. Also, Somali women have unequal access to agriculture, livestock and fisheries production inputs and technology. 61 UNDP. 2012. Human Development Report 2012. 62  World Bank. 2017. Somali Poverty Profile 2016: Findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey 63 UNFPA. 2017. Situation Report #006: April 24, 2017; UNFPA. 2017. Situation Report #013: September 2017.  64  UNDP. 2012. Human Development Report 2012. The Human Impact | 47 Profile of Populations Affected, Vulnerable Groups and Social Protection Vulnerable geographic areas In its latest outlook report through January 2018, the FSNAU classifies the livelihood zones that are areas of concern, as indicated in Table 2. Populations in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) are considered priorities for food security and livelihoods support programming. Populations in Emergency (IPC 4) deserve special attention given the risk of increased mortality. These are Guban Pastoral, Hawd of northwest, Northern Inland Pastoral of northwest, East Golis of northwest, Addun of central, Southern Agropastoral of Hiraan and displaced populations in Dhusamareeb (Galgadud), Mogadishu (Benadir), Baidoa (Bay) and Dollo (Hiran) regions. © IOM 48 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 2: Areas of Concern Through January 2018 by Food Security Phase65 Livelihood Group Areas of concern through January 2018 by food security phase IDPs IDPs in Mogadishu, Baidoa, Dhusamareb and Dollow are classified as Emergency (IPC Phase 4) Most of the remaining IDP settlements are in crisis (IPC Phase 3) Urban Centers Urban populations in Togdheer, Sool, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Marka (Lower Shabelle), Bandir (Mogadishu) Bay (Baydhaba and Qansadhere), Bakool (Wajid and Hudur), Gedo (Dollow, Ceel Waaq and Belet Xaawo), and Lower Juba (Kismayo). Northern Region Guban Pastoral, Hawd Pastoral of Northwest, Northern Inland Pastoral of Northwest and East Golis of Northwest are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through December. West Golis Pastoral (IPC 2) will improve to IPC 1 October Jan 2018 Northwest Agro- pastoral, West Golis Pastoral and Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) of Northeast, and East Golis of Northeast are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Central Region Addun (IPC 4) and Cowpea-Belt Agropastoral zones Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone Southern Region Bay-Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral and Southern Agropastoral of Hiran will remain in Emergency (IPC 4) Southern Inland Pastoral livelihood zone of Bakool, Southern Agropastoral
livelihood zone of Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba and Juba
Cattle Pastoral livelihood zone of Middle and Lower Juba and
Southern Rainfed Maize Agropastoral 
 Populations in Emergency (IPC 4) deserve special Vulnerable population groups attention given the risk of increased mortality. These are In addition to the populations classified as in Crisis and Guban Pastoral, Hawd of northwest, Northern Inland Emergency (IPC Phases 3 & 4), including IDPs, there are Pastoral of northwest, East Golis of northwest, Addun of specific population groups that are particularly vulnerable central, Southern Agropastoral of Hiran and displaced and need to be prioritized in the recovery efforts. As populations in Dhusamareb (Glagadud), Mogadishu shown in the table below, they include poor households, (Benadir), Baidoa (Bay) and Dollo (Hiran) regions. marginalized groups including disadvantaged minorities Most of the settlements of IDP populations are classified and clans/lineages, and extremely vulnerable social as in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) due classes such as women, female-headed households to their poor living conditions, limited livelihood and and children. These groups face particularly high coping options. Poor households in major urban areas risks, including exclusion and discrimination based on are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as a result of high food prices power structures, tradition and social norms in Somalia. and increased competition from the influx of displaced Inclusion of these groups in the recovery process is populations. Population groups classified as in Crisis essential, including protection and safety nets that need and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 & 4) require interventions to target them for priority recovery assistance. aimed at reducing food consumption gaps, reducing acute malnutrition, saving lives and protecting and saving livelihoods. 65 FSNAU/FEWS NET. 2017. Somalia Food Security Outlook: June 2017 to January 2018 The Human Impact | 49 Table 3: Vulnerable Population Groups Poor households Poor households are particularly at risk, given the many deprivations they face: low labor force participation, high unemployment, lower income, low resource base and assets, lower access to water and sanitation and health care, and higher levels of food insecurity and malnutrition. Disadvantaged ethnic minorities The Somali clan system is an important feature of social, political and economic and clans/lineages life. The clan structure is divided into four major groups: the Hawiye, Darood and Dir/Isaaq, which are overwhelmingly nomadic pastoralist clans; and the Digil and Miri e, also known as the Rahanweyn, which practice agropastoralism in the southern part of Somalia. Several smaller ethnic communities, including the Bantus and groups estranged based on traditional occupations, are disadvantaged groups. They face the greatest inequalities and exclusion, they do not get any clan protection, and they are often victims of sexual abuse and gang attacks.66 Women and FHH The drought has had a differential impact on women and men, reflecting their particular roles and responsibilities at home and in the economy, so coping strategies differ between genders. In addition Somali women face a range of distinct barriers as a result of the acute gender inequalities in Somalia. Female-headed households have increased with the drought as a result of the extended absence of males due to drought and abnormal migration. The maternal mortality ratio is extraordinarily high, with 1 in every 12 women dying due to pregnancy-related causes.67 Over 130,000 pregnant women need critical health assistance. Children 4 million children face food insecurity (among the 6.2 million). Of these, 1.2 million children under 5 are, or could be, acutely malnourished in the next year, including over 232,000 who have or will suffer life-threatening severe acute malnutrition (SAM). School drop out rates extending from displacement are pronounced and have the potential for long-term development impacts. Children with GAM > 15 % or MUAC < 12.5 CMs in > 10.7 % are in dire need of urgent assistance, especially in the following locations: Northern Inland Pastoral of northeast and northwest regions
, Guban pastoral of northwest regions, Hawd Pastoral and Addun pastoral of central regions, Coastal Deeh pastoral of northeast
, North Gedo Pastoral and North Gedo Riverine, Shabele Agropastoral, Bakool pastoral and IDP settlements in Garowe, Bosaaso, Galkacyo, Qardho, Dhusamareb, Mogadishu, Baidoa, Dolow, Kismayo, Hargeisa and Berbera. Source: From FSNAU outlook to Jan 2018 66 UNDP. 2012. Human Development Report 2012. 67 UNICEF. 2016. Situation Analysis of Children in Somalia 2016. 50 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Poverty and Human Development Data on poverty in Somalia is largely out of date. Nonetheless the key data available is presented here and summarized in the figure below.68 The poverty line and multidimensional poverty in Somalia According to the 2002 Socio-economic survey, 43 percent of the total population was living in extreme poverty (defined as USD 1 per day in PPP), and 73 percent was living on less than USD 2 per day. The percentage of people living on less than a dollar a day was 24 percent in urban areas and percent in rural and nomadic areas. The World Bank’s 2016 survey found that every second Somali lives in poverty, and almost 1 in 3 faces conditions of extreme poverty. Poverty, defined as having a total consumption expenditure lower than the international poverty line of USD 1.90 at 2011 PPP, varies across regions, with the North East at 27 percent, the North West with 50 percent, urban areas with 45 percent, and rural areas with 52 percent. The poverty incidence is highest in IDP settlements, where seven out of ten people are poor.69 68 T  here are two main references used: 1) The 2002 Socio Economic Survey carried out with support from UNDP and the World Bank which provides the most recently available and nationally representative poverty data on Somalia; and 2) The Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) on Multidimensional poverty in Somalia, which is based on UNICEF’s 2006 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and referenced in the 2012 Human Development Report. However, the data from these is indicative only, and not considered to be representative of current poverty levels in Somalia given the time lapse and the changes that have taken place since the surveys. A third reference is the World Bank’s High Frequency Survey conducted in early 2016, which is more recent and is representative of 4.9 million Somalis, but does not cover nomadic people and Somalis living in inaccessible areas. 69 World Bank. 2017. Somali Poverty Profile 2016: Findings from Wave 1 of the Somali High Frequency Survey  The Human Impact | 51 Based on the DINA’s findings, it is estimated that Given the drought’s impact on women, there is a risk pastoralists and agropastoralists have lost about USD that they will fall into further exclusion and inequality. As 870 million in their livelihoods and income. In addition, noted, Somali women face a range of distinct barriers as about 19,555 small businesses involved in livestock a result of acute gender inequalities, and female-headed value chains, such as transporters, petty traders and households have increased with the drought as a result milk traders, have been affected. It is estimated that of the extended absence of males due to drought these businesses have lost USD 43 million in revenue and abnormal migration. In addition, their livelihoods and about USD 22 million in income. As a result, the have also been lost, and violence against women population living below the poverty line will likely has intensified. increase and income per capita will fall further below the current levels estimated at USD 450.70 The human development index In contrast to the headcount measure of poverty, the MPI The Human Development Index (HDI) combines identifies multiple deprivations at the household level indicators of health, education and income. Somalia’s across three dimensions (standard of living, education HDI value is strikingly low at 0.285, ranking it among the and health) using a total of 10 indicators (access to lowest in the world, at 165 out of the 170 countries in water, sanitation, housing, school attainment, school 2010. Lack of data limits the estimation of regionally and attendance, child mortality, nutrition/malnutrition, socioeconomically disaggregated HDI values. etc.). The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) Human development indicators are sobering. Low life identifies those with multiple deprivations as the poorest expectancy in Somalia is linked to high rates of infant of the poor. mortality, one of the highest rates of maternal mortality Somalia’s MPI is 0.47 out of 1, which placed it at 94 out in the world, which is exacerbated by the widespread of 104 countries in 2010. The MPI estimated that 82 practice of FGM, and the spread of preventable diseases percent of Somalis were in multidimensional poverty, such as tuberculosis, malaria and measles. High levels of ranging from 61 percent in urban areas to 94 percent mortality and low life expectancy stem from inadequate in rural areas.71 Given the large deprivations caused by curative and preventative health services, the collapse the drought in Somalia, it is likely that multidimensional of sanitation and water systems, erratic food security poverty has increased significantly in the country, and pockets of chronic malnutrition, all of which especially in the most affected regions. Displaced increase susceptibility to fatal diseases. The last Human populations, estimated at over 1 million, now face Development Report (2012) warned of the possibility of multiple deprivations and have joined the ranks of the a worsening trend in human development in Somalia poorest among the poor. due to the 2011 famine. The current drought will further increase this possibility. The gender inequality index Gender inequality is alarmingly high at 0.776 out of Final Observations a value of 1 (complete inequality), with Somalia at the fourth lowest position globally on the Gender Inequality Somalia is a country in protracted crisis as a result Index.72 Women suffer severe exclusion and inequality of conflict and recurrent droughts and floods over in all dimensions of the index—health, employment several decades. This has provoked the destruction of and labor market participation. Somali girls experience much of its basic service infrastructure, insecurity, large early and forced marriage at a young age, and violence population movements, the collapse of state institutions, against girls and women is widespread. Traditional laws, a lack of employment and livelihood opportunities, used in lieu of a state judiciary, are highly discriminatory and deep and widespread poverty. The country faced against women.73 two famines that killed an estimated 300,000 people in 70 U  NOCHA and HCT. 2016. Humanitarian Response Plan for Somalia: 2017. 71 UNDP. 2012. Human Development Report 2012.  72  Ibid. 73 Ibid.  52 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment 1991-92 and 250,000 in 2010-11. The current drought will further exacerbate the already extremely high levels of vulnerability and impoverishment in Somalia, and its Human Development Index will remain low or slip further below its current levels. The chapter does not recommend specific recovery needs for sectors discussed above, as they are included in the respective sector chapters of the DINA report. This chapter highlights the cumulative impact of drought on different aspects of human development and presents core recommendations as follows: It is imperative that the recovery process from the • current drought prioritizes the most vulnerable population groups identified in the DINA and summarized in this chapter, namely the poor, disadvantaged ethnic minorities, women and female-headed households, and children. It is important to adhere to a ‘do no harm’ policy to • ensure equal access to drought recovery resources and services and to minimize the potential for further inequalities and conflict that is often associated with the lack of access to vital natural resources such as food and water. It will also be critical to deliver recovery initiatives • that build resilience among the affected populations to ensure that their livelihoods are less vulnerable to future droughts, following the key recommendations made across all sectors in the DINA. The drought recovery strategy should be • coherent with and build on Somalia’s National Development Plan (2017-2019), which aims to achieve poverty alleviation, economic revival and societal transformation in a socially just and gender equitable manner, as well as its National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA), which identifies urgent and immediate climate change adaptation needs of the most vulnerable groups and proposes concrete adaptation measures across all key sectors. © IOM The Human Impact | 53 Macroeconomic Impact The impact of the drought on the Somali economy Somalia’s economy was on the path to recovery before has been primarily channeled through losses in crop the drought. The economy has been growing at 5 production and livestock and livestock-related products, percent per annum in nominal terms (3.6 percent in real estimated at USD 1.7 billion between November 2016 terms), mainly driven by agriculture and services (Figure and June 2017. Livestock and livestock-related losses 19). The agricultural sector, mainly livestock, remains and crop production failures were widespread across the the largest sector in Somalia’s economy, the largest country, affecting 17 out of the 18 regions of Somalia.74 employer in rural areas with nomadic cultures and the The drought also led to significant price increases for key largest export earner. In the services sector, remittances, staples, affecting consumer purchasing power. money transfer companies and telecommunications lead the growth. 74 DINA estimates  54 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia/Dreamcatcher The country’s economic growth in 2017 is expected to (ii) the security situation, particularly in rural areas; (iii) the decelerate due to the drought, with a similar outcome ability of the FGS and FMS to coordinate rehabilitation expected in 2018 if rains continue their below-average efforts for drought programs; and (iv) the normalization trend. The recovery in crop production and the rebuilding in rainfall levels. Implementation of a people-centered of the herd size could begin in 2019 through the recovery strategy, along with a resilience-building normalization of rainfall levels, continued governments strategy with all key stakeholders against shocks, efforts to rebuild the country, and increased inflows of remains essential. Similarly, a robust level of results- remittances and foreign aid. Somalia’s recovery from oriented humanitarian and development assistance will drought will take time and will be influenced by several be critical. factors: (i) the absorptive capacity of the NGOs who are leading the humanitarian assistance and the economy; Macroeconomic Impact | 55 Pre-drought Context and Baseline While inflationary pressures on the economy remained for the Sector contained, the unemployment and poverty rates remained extremely elevated, particularly in rural areas. The end-of-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) advanced Pre-Drought Sector Context & Analysis at an average pace of 2.4 percent over the 2013-2015 With a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of period due to the dollarized economy and the sharp USD 450 in 2016 and a poverty headcount rate of 51.6 decline in oil prices. It is important to note, however, that percent,75 Somalia is among the poorest nations in the there was significant spatial price variation related to the world. Poverty is widespread, and large proportions of poor connectivity of roads, which hampered the trade of the population remain vulnerable to poverty and food goods across regions. insecurity; over six million people live in rural areas where Unemployment and poverty levels remain high. With food insecurity is high. Social-economic outcomes are economic growth being insufficient to absorb the youth poor. The Somali poor have worse access to services, population entering the labor force, the unemployment poorer educational outcomes, and are less successful in rate among the working age population78 rose from the labor market. Lack of access to an improved source 47 percent in 2002 to 54 percent in 2013,79 with the of water is the most common deprivation among rural unemployment rate among the youth population80 households, with more than 9 in 10 rural households standing at 48 percent.81 Approximately 73 percent of deprived in this dimension.76 Lack of access to an the population lived on less than USD 2 per day, with improved source of water and to education affect 41 the poverty incidence in rural areas standing at 80 and 36 percent of Somali households, respectively.77 percent against 61 percent in urban areas in 2013.82 83 Somalia’s economy was largely undiversified, with Poverty in Somalia is linked with lower access to services, the agricultural sector constituting the mainstay of poorer educational outcomes, and weaker labor market the economy. The agricultural sector, dominated by outcomes. For example, 9 in 10 rural households are livestock sub-sector, accounted for roughly 65 percent deprived from access to an improved source of water. of GDP and 85 percent of total employment. The sector remains highly vulnerable to variability in rainfall levels The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is highly due to the heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture, which constrained in its ability to deliver public services and disproportionately affects the rural economy through initiate public investments due to its limited capacity to crop production failures and livestock losses—and raise revenues and access grants and loans. Domestic the resulting price shocks, as well as high levels of revenue averaged 2.3 percent of GDP in 2013-2015, underemployment, particularly during the dry season. mainly driven by trade taxes averaging over 70 percent during this period. Public expenditure averaged 3.5 The development of the manufacturing sector remains percent of GDP in 2013-2015, entirely limited to wages a drag on the economy due to the adverse business and salaries and use of goods and services. Spending environment. The development of the manufacturing depends heavily on multilateral and bilateral donor sector was limited by the harsh business environment, inflows, which are often late or do not materialize, high electricity and transport costs—due to limited creating uncertainty in budget implementation. road connectivity, low road maintenance, roadblocks by militia and cartels which prevent competition The large current account and trade deficits are a source in the trucking sector. This, combined with the of external vulnerability. During 2013-2015, exports and lack of productive knowledge embedded in the imports averaged 18.7 percent of GDP and 70.4 percent economy, resulted in a high transaction cost of doing of GDP, respectively, leading to an average external business in Somalia. trade deficit of 51.7 percent of GDP.84 About 80 percent 75 W  orld Bank. 2013. Integrated Household Survey (IHS) 76 Ibid.  77 Ibid.  78 Population between the ages of 15 and 64.  79 UNDP, World Bank. 2002. Socio-Economic Survey 2002; World Bank. 2013. Integrated Household Survey (IHS)  80 Population between the ages of 14 and 29.  81 Somali Labor Force Survey 2014  82  World Bank. 2013. Integrated Household Survey (IHS). 83 Somaliland specific estimates put the poverty incidence in urban and rural areas at 29 percent and 38 percent, respectively.  84 Based on IMF data 2017. 56 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNSOM of Somalia’s exports consisted of livestock products, system; money transfer companies and domestic mobile with export earnings of livestock products standing payment systems dominate the financial system. Total at USD 384 million in 2015. Somalia’s imports largely assets held at the CBS averaged USD 87.1 million over consisted of consumption goods. The large external 2013-2015. trade imbalance was primarily financed by large inflows of remittances and foreign aid,86 with each support Somalia has been unable to meet its debt obligations mechanism averaging USD 1.4 billion over 2013-2015. since the late 1980s. External debt is estimated at about USD 5.1 billion or 81 percent of GDP, most of The economy continues to be highly dollarized, limiting which is in arrears. The country remains ineligible the scope for monetary policy. The lack of capacity for financial assistance from International Finance of the Central Bank of Somalia (CBS) to perform its Institutions, pending the clearance of its outstanding supervisory function is a key challenge for financial obligations, hence a standing barrier to much-needed sector governance. Somalia has no formal financial development finance. 86 Official foreign aid comprised of humanitarian aid, development aid, support to peacekeeping and budget support.  Macroeconomic Impact | 57 Insecurity continues to pose significant risk to economic activity and greatly exacerbates the effects of drought. Insecurity due to the threat of al-Shabaab still lingers in Mogadishu and northern regions of Puntland and Galmudug. As such, economic activity being recorded reflects the resilience of the Somalia economy amidst fragility. Somalia has in fact been rated the second most fragile state in the world in 2017 shown by the Fragile State Index and posting a deteriorating performance on almost all of the indicators relative to 200687 (Figure 20). 87 Somalia’s ranking in the Fragile State Index has fluctuated between the most fragile country and the second most fragile country in the world. 88 Increase in the index associated to a deterioration; Source: Fragile State Index. 58 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table of Key Baseline Data for the Sector The table below presents the key baseline macroeconomic data for Somalia.89 Table 4: Key Baseline Macroeconomic Data 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* Nominal GDP (USD) 5,723 5,950 6,111 6,336 6522 Real Growth (%) 2.8 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.4 GDP Per capita (USD) 429 436 436 442 443 Total Revenue (% of GDP) 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.7 3.9 Grants (% of GDP) 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.9 1.7 Total Expenditure (% of GDP) 2.1 2.5 2.2 2.7 3.9 Current Account (% of GDP) -4.8 -6.3 -7.2 -10.1 -11.2 Trade Balance (% of GDP) -47.9 -52.5 -54.6 -58.5 -63.6 Exports of Goods and Services 16.5 19.2 20.5 17.8 15.9 Import of Goods and Services 64.4 71.7 75.1 76.4 79.5 (% of GDP) Remittances (% of GDP) 22.7 22.9 23.3 24.7 26.7 Exchange Rate SOS/USD) 20,435 20,268 22,286 23,960 Drought Impact Real GDP growth in 2017 will decelerate due to drought, but it is expected to revert to the post-2011 trend in 2018–19.90 The drought has severely reduced agricultural The Aggregate Economic Impact production, the main driver of Somalia’s economy. The The effect of drought on the macroeconomy will be impact of the drought on the agriculture and livestock felt into the medium term. The impact of the shock on sectors can be considered as two-fold: (i) losses in Somalia’s economic activity and, thus, on macroeconomic terms of crop production failures, and livestock and variables is and will be felt both directly and indirectly livestock-related products; and (ii) damages caused to in the very short, short, and medium term. Regardless crops and from deceased livestock. Losses in terms of of humanitarian and other financial assistance to help crop production failures, and livestock and livestock- Somalia cope with the drought, it will take the economy related products have been estimated at USD 1.7 years to recover from the losses caused by drought. This billion. Damages caused to crops and from deceased crisis is also being exacerbated by the ongoing conflict livestock have been estimated at USD 350.7 million. in the country and weak institutional and governance Livestock losses and crop production failures were arrangements in Somalia. widespread across the country, affecting 17 out of the 18 regions of Somalia. 89 Based on IMF data (data for 2017 is provisional). 90 DINA estimate Macroeconomic Impact | 59 Furthermore, the drought resulted in depressed prices of livestock and livestock products as agropastoralists and pastoralists tried to salvage the value of their herd. Declining livestock prices during the drought have caused the rapid increase in off-take as herders try to salvage the value of their herd and as they face rising prices for fodder. This, combined with the lack of transport and storage facilities for livestock, resulted in large increases of livestock supplied to the market, driving prices down. Moreover, pastoralists have been forced to sell their productive stock, composed of young and breeding females, in line with the erosion of the purchasing power of herders. Sheep and goat prices have, however, returned to their pre-drought level—largely due to the lifting of the temporary ban from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia—while camel and cattle prices are yet to recover to their pre-drought levels (Figures 21-24). 91 FSNAU database 2017. 60 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia/Dreamcatcher 92 Ibid. Macroeconomic Impact | 61 93 Ibid. 62 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Prices of crops significantly increased during the drought period. The price movement of cereals over a period of drought is shown in Figure 7. The extent to which grain prices rise during drought obviously depends on the size of drought-induced crop losses and how far these can be made good by imports of grain from elsewhere. The speed with which farm production returns to normal levels after the drought is determined by the level of loss in productive capacity—seeds, outflow of labor, damage to soils, etc.— which can only be reconstituted over a period of years. In general, however, crop production will return to normal more rapidly than does output from the livestock sector due to the slow rates of reproduction and herd reconstitution in the latter case. 94 Ibid. Macroeconomic Impact | 63 © UNSOM Wages recovered to their pre-drought level in late 2017. While wages in Somalia declined by 6.9 percent between November 2016 and June 2017 relative to the same reference period in 2016, the average daily labor rate in August 2017 was comparable to the one recorded in August 2016. Meanwhile, Somaliland’s average daily labor rate was not adversely affected by the drought, having risen by 3.3 percent between November 2016 and June 2017 relative to the same reference period in 2016 (Figure 26). 95 FSNAU database, 2017. 64 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Somalia’s exports of livestock have been severely affected by the drought and the ensuing temporary import ban by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) on suspicion of livestock being infected by the Rift Valley fever.97 The decline in the value of exports has been partially offset by the decrease in the value of imports related to the deterioration in the purchasing power of Somalia. Figure 27a presents Somalia’s volume of exports of camels, cattle, sheep and goats through August 2017. With livestock accounting for roughly 80 percent of total exports, the drought and the temporary import ban from the KSA could remain a major threat to the economic recovery. Furthermore, with less livestock to export, hard currency has declined, reducing available resources for the imports that drive customs receipts. 96 Ibid. 97 KSA banned Somalia’s livestock in 2000 following the outbreak of the Rift Valley Fever in the Horn of Africa region, but lifted the ban in early 2015.  Macroeconomic Impact | 65 Imports to Somalia increased significantly in 2017 to meet the basic dietary requirements of the population affected by the drought. Somalia has historically relied on significant food imports given the minimal production taking place outside of agriculture. The drought, combined with the presence of armed conflict, resulted in Somalia’s imports increasing from USD 2,710 million in 2015 to USD 3,194 million in 2017, representing a 18 percent increase over this period, to cater to the basic food requirements of the population (Table 5). As a share of GDP, imports increased by five percentage points, from 44 percent of GDP in 2015 to 49 percent in 2017. 98 FSNAU database 2017. 66 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 5: Balance of Payments, 2013-19 (USD millions)100 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Trade balance -2,618 -2,959 -3,000 -3,201 -3,603 Goods balance -1,728 -2,072 -2,026 -2,237 -2,544 Exports of goods, f.o.b. 640 608 683 647 650 Imports of goods, f.o.b. -2,367 -2,680 -2,710 -2,884 -3,194 Service balance -890 -887 -974 -964 -1,059 Service credits 303 337 355 373 384 Service debit -1,193 -1,224 -1,328 -1,338 -1,443 99 Ibid. 100 Based on IMF data 2017. Macroeconomic Impact | 67 The drought has worsened Somalia’s external sector. The Overall, there is very little fiscal impact emanating from external trade balance worsened, induced by a fall in drought. Since no taxation is levied on the livestock livestock exports. The combined direct negative effect of sector, the impact of drought on the economy is minimal. the higher food imports and the lower livestock exports While there is increased demand for Government in 2017 on the trade balance of the balance of payments services for short-term relief, there is no fiscal space for is approximately USD 608 million over two years. This Government to deliver on these demands hence reliance amount reflects only the influence of the drought on on humanitarian/development assistance. livestock exports. The trade balance deteriorated, rated from negative USD 3 billion (49 percent of GDP) to Medium- to Long-term Macroeconomic Projections negative USD 3.6 billion (55 percent of GDP). Although and Impact on Development Goals the drought also had an impact crops, such as banana, sesame and grain sorghum, these products are for Somalia’s economic recovery is projected to continue in domestic consumption and do not contribute to the the 2018–20 period. Somalia’s economy is expected to total value of goods exported, thus their effect on the recover from the drought in 2019 through the recovery in current account of the balance of payments is at most crop production and the rebuilding of the herd size. The minimal. The limited impact of drought on economic World Bank estimates that Somalia’s economic growth activity in Somalia reflects weak forward and backward will be stable, driven by aggregate demand fueled by linkages between the agricultural activities and the rest remittances, lower oil prices, and improved security of the economy. environment. Somalia’s economy is expected to recover from the drought in 2018, with real GDP forecast to grow by 3.5 percent in 2018. There are indications and ad hoc Impact on the fiscal sector evidence of a construction boom in Mogadishu and other Somalia’s fiscal base is too weak to absorb any shocks. major cities across Somalia. The high level of capital The FGS has a budget of USD 260 million, equivalent imports observed in the balance of payments accounts to just 4.0 percent of GDP in 2017. Spending depends signals the expansion of the productive potential of the heavily on multilateral and bilateral donor inflows, which economy. As private consumption remains strong, with creates uncertainty in budget implementation as some continued large FDI inflows, economic recovery will take funds do not materialize. Donor grants in the 2017 hold, creating jobs and stability. budget constitute 1.9 percent of GDP (47 percent of the 2017 budget). Domestic revenue (taxes plus fees) as a Weak public capital investment remains a critical share of GDP remains very low, at just 2.1 percent of GDP, binding constraint, however. The Government lacks making it difficult to provide services. Domestic revenue the resources to undertake major programs or is driven mainly by customs tax revenue. In addition, investment projects from its meager resources. Public the basic norms of fiscal management remain weak. investment will continue to rely heavily on official Unrealistic revenue projections and weak expenditure development assistance, which currently has a very low controls contribute to the accumulation of arrears. Weak capital component. revenue mobilization hinders the ability of the FGS to Financing needs will increase significantly as peace takes deliver services to citizens. hold. Import demand is projected to remain strong, Somalia’s public expenditure is low, constrained by weak thanks to continued robust growth and large—mainly revenue mobilization. In terms of the budget, most of officially funded—infrastructure investment needs. the money goes into compensation of employees (49 Continued flows of grants and access to concessional percent), use of goods and services—mostly military loans will be necessary to finance infrastructure rations (25 percent) and grants to FMS (7 percent), development, a precondition for developing Somalia’s leaving limited fiscal space for public service delivery export base. and investment. The administrative and security sectors Fragility has impeded any form of structural transforma- account for more than 75 percent of total spending. tion in Somalia. Somalia’s economy remains exposed to Together, the economic and social services sectors shocks because of its high export concentration and lin- account for only about 10 percent of total expenditure. gering insecurity, which makes the business environment More—and better allocated—spending will need to go difficult. To safeguard external stability in the medium to these sectors if service delivery is to improve. term, policies targeting the diversification of the economy combined with improvement in nonprice competitiveness will be critical. 68 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Reforms Needed to Spur Growth from the current drought and re-establishment of productive assets will require several seasons of Sustainable growth will require investments in physical good rainfall. and human capital and institutional strengthening. Significant investments to close the country’s capital and The ongoing conflict in part of the country is delaying infrastructure gap will be needed to increase economic and dampening growth prospects. Although Somalia’s growth in the medium term. Policies that target access, economy remains stable, simmering conflict continues quality, and inclusiveness of education could increase to pose an important downside risk to economic activity the contribution of human capital to growth. Reforms in the medium term. Al-Shabaab continues to be a threat in public financial management and governance would to Somalia’s national security; terrorist activity has scared improve the efficiency of public and private investment. away both domestic and foreign potential investors and Improvements to the business environment—through tilted FGS priority spending toward security. stronger contract enforcement and more efficient Financing is highly dependent on foreign remittances, and reliable electricity provision, for example—will be development partner flows, and export revenue; essential to raise productivity. declines in these sources would affect Somalia’s To support diversification, policies should address growth prospects. Foreign remittances are the main issues that hinder entry into new lines of economic driver of both consumption and investment. The fiscal activity. Weaknesses abound, in particular in terms of the budget and the activities of several NGOs depend on provision of infrastructure, security, the regulatory and development partner inflows. Official development institutional environment, the accumulation of human assistance faces significant pressures given the ongoing capital, and the provision of finance. Evidence from slowdown in Europe and refugee pressures. Somalia’s cross-country comparisons and individual case studies exports are concentrated in a few commodities (mainly suggests that policies targeting these areas can foster livestock) and exported to few countries (mainly in the structural transformation and diversification. Gulf). A disease outbreak or exports bans could wipe out export revenues. Short- and medium-term policies to diversify Somalia’s economy could stabilize the economy and enhance Increased Risks and Vulnerabilities economic recovery. With livestock dominating exports, Somalia is highly exposed to exogenous shocks If policy and programming measures are not taken such as export bans as a result of a disease outbreak. by Somalia and the international donor community, To reduce the economy’s exposure to shocks from Somalia will also be exposed to greater risk of conflict this sector, strong livestock disease surveillance is and fragility. Conflict remains at the heart of the crisis, needed. At the same time, policymakers need to not least as a driver of displacement, but also by limiting formulate and implement a long-term economic access and progress on development and provision of diversification agenda. basic services to the population. Potential Scenarios if Policy and Programming Cross-cutting Considerations Measures Are Not Taken Some of the cross-cutting issues which are critical Notwithstanding the robust growth expected for Somalia to lifting the economic potential of Somalia include over the forecast horizon, significant risks remain on both most notably: the domestic and external fronts. Private sector’s role in the recovery. The weak • Somalia needs to undertake measures to withstand state environment has limited the ability to current and future shocks. Unless policy reforms are channel investment in public infrastructure, and undertaken, Somalia will remain dependent on large this gap has been filled in many instances by injections of foreign aid to address the needs of its private investment. The poor and vulnerable are, population following weather-related shocks. An however, often excluded by the nature of private estimated 6.2 million individuals are currently in need infrastructure provision. The private sector can of humanitarian assistance, including more than 800,000 be a valuable source of capital (i.e., risk capital people in Emergency (IPC phase 4),101 the phase which and investment capital), as well as expertise and precedes famine. Pastoralists remain vulnerable to local knowledge, which are yet to be tapped into suffering from additional livestock losses, and recovery 101 FSNAU and FEWSNET. 2017. Special Brief – Focus on Post Gu 2017 Assessment Results: September 2017.  Macroeconomic Impact | 69 in the recovery and resilience-building phase. Recovery Needs and Strategy Private sector capital and expertise is expected to bring investments susceptible to generate greater economic opportunities for the population. Recovery Needs, Prioritization of Needs and Guarantee instruments, which formalize risk-sharing Population Groups agreements and thereby reduce the risk to help The development of infrastructure networks in Somalia’s attract investors, would be of particular importance rural areas is crucial to unleash the country’s economic within Somalia’s context, characterized as it is by potential and contribute toward building resilience high risks and uncertainty. against future weather-related shocks. Significant Gender. Social and prejudicial cultural practices in • investments are required in the infrastructure networks Somalia limit women’s full economic participation in rural areas to raise the productivity of producers, within society. There is a strong correlation between increase their international competitiveness and help women’s labor force participation and poverty them to connect to domestic and international markets. alleviation. Studies have shown that a greater The needs in the energy sector, road infrastructure and portion of women’s earnings is deployed for child information and communications technology (ICT) are as healthcare and education. As such, access to follows: finance, labor force participation and education Road infrastructure. Satellite imagery identified about opportunities are critical. The recovery and 104,000 km of roads and pathways, the majority of which resilience building process will need to consider are unpaved and in poor condition. The joint WB, UN, the barriers to women’s full economic participation, African Development Bank infrastructure assessment not only in the value chains traditionally reserved estimated various transport infrastructure needs at USD for women and marginalized groups, but across all 1,863 million. The network is characterized by its high sectors of the economy. The sector will ensure the accessibility in urban areas but very limited connectivity needs of vulnerable groups are properly addressed: in rural areas. Significant improvements in these areas female-headed households, widows, divorced, will need not only laws and regulations but also a political women and men with disabilities, older women and settlement that will enable the state to credibly commit men and adolescent girls as well as neglected and and implement. Somalia’s geographical location and excluded groups of minorities. physical characteristics could enable it to partake in inter- Social protection and safety nets. While • and intra-regional trade along multiple trade corridors. remittances constitute a safety net for a significant Over the longer term, this could entail participating portion of the Somali population, middle- and in trade flows connecting Europe, Asia, the Middle higher-income households are the greatest East and Africa, as well as serving as a gateway to East beneficiaries of remittances. To recover and build Africa. Reaping such benefits will require concomitant resilience against future weather-related shocks, it investments such as developing sub-regional transport would be essential for cash and in-kind support to connectivity, a task that will require coordination across be targeted to the households with the greatest multiple countries. needs who do not receive remittances. ICT. Today, half the country has mobile coverage, with Displacement and migration. Displacement and • a few 3G sites established and 4G sites underway. The migration leads to shifts in the supply and demand price of services dropped 50 percent over the last of goods and services, leading to temporary decade, despite the dominance of one mobile operator disruptions in markets and ultimately, in economic (Telesom in Somaliland, Golis in Puntland and Hormuud outcomes. Recurrent bouts of displacement and elsewhere). Almost 90 percent of Somalis own a phone, migration induce private sector entities to engage almost a third use a smartphone and three quarters use in low-investment projects with quick gains, mobile money. But the sector remains unregulated, rather than projects that would generate more vulnerable and untaxed. opportunities for the Somali population. Environment and natural resources. Environmental • In addition to the development of infrastructure and natural resources deterioration and depletion networks in rural areas, financial and technical support is undermining the sustainability of the economy. to small producers in rural areas is required. Providing Somalia will need immediate and long-term access to microfinance credit in rural areas would be programs with dedicated resources to ensure an important step toward allowing small producers natural resources are protected and deterioration of to access capital. Technical capacity building would environment is countered. also be required to raise the productivity of producers and ensure that products maximize the earning potential of producers. 70 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Recovery Strategy for the Sector investments that otherwise would not be possible, WIDEs distort markets due to the monopolies that they Revenue-enhancing measures hold in a range of sectors. Key reforms are needed to To address the significant needs in infrastructure allow for new entrants to enter the market and restore networks, revenue-enhancing measures will need to be competitive equilibrium. initiated. While there has been progress in increasing Regulation of the financial sector is critical to many revenue from sources other than customs duties aspects of Somalia’s efforts to recover from drought since 2014102 – through, most notably, agreement of and increase resilience. Currently, the CBS is preparing concessions for the collection of non-tax revenues,103 the a Financial Sector roadmap that outlines the necessary FGS has made comparatively little progress in collecting steps. A regulated financial sector will create more private sector income taxes and indirect domestic taxes. effective payment systems, which will help bring As such, revenue-enhancing measures will need to be down the cost of cash transfer programs. Investments taken by the FGS to generate revenue. in building the financial sector will also create the Involvement of the private sector in the development opportunity for financial products that can benefit of infrastructure networks will remain crucial given the lower income and vulnerable households, including FGS’s current inability to deliver public investments. microcredit and microinsurance products. Finally, The private sector will need to be highly involved in the expanded financial inclusion and access to finance development of infrastructure networks in the coming will enable greater economic inclusion and growth. years. To incentivize private investments, an adequate Female-headed households and youth should be given Public Private Partnership (PPP) framework will need to special attention. be considered. Investment policy and promotion will need to be under- A greater portion of remittances will need to be channeled taken. The FGS in partnership with the World Bank Trade for investment purposes rather than consumption. and Competitiveness Global Practice has supported tar- While remittances have provided the majority of start- geted capacity building on investment policy and pro- up capital for small businesses, most of the remittances motion, formulation of the Foreign Investment Policy in remain consumed today—supporting the livelihoods of 2015 and establishment of Somlnvest, a one-stop shop three million individuals—rather than being invested.104 intended to serve foreign investors. The aim is to attract Given the significant financial constraints confronted and create the much-needed investment resources, by the Somali economy, it would be important to technology and employment opportunities. Much more establish an investment fund with the resources from work will be needed in that regard in the medium to the Somali diaspora that could be directly channeled to long term. microfinance institutions and the productive segment of An export strategy will need to be developed to diversify the economy.105 export products and export markets. The absence of Supporting the business enabling environment sufficient quality controls and certification, as well as poor resource management, were identified as key Reforms are needed to allow new entrants to operate constraints to exports. The resilient recovery of Somalia’s in sectors of the economy being controlled by widely export market would aim to provide support to improve diversified enterprises (WIDEs).106 While their bundling management of the fisheries sector to strengthen businesses across sectors to lower transaction costs, capacity to meet international export standards reduce asymmetric information in financial contracting, for livestock and support the expansion of potential and diversify risk has enabled WIDEs to provide services export markets. across multiple sectors, including making capital 102  omestic revenue rose by 36 percent in 2015, rising from USD 84.3 million in 2014 to USD 114.3 million in 2015, to USD 139 million in 2016, driven D mainly by tax revenue, which contributed more than 70 percent of total revenue in 2012–16, 103  The two largest of these concessions relate to the management of Mogadishu Port and Mogadishu Airport, but FGS has also entered into concessions for the collection of road tax, vehicle licenses and property transfer tax. 104 L. Hammond. Family Ties: Remittances and Support in Puntland and Somaliland. FAO, 2013. Available at http://www.rsc.ox.ac.uk/news/family-ties-  remittances-and-support-in-puntland-andsomaliland-laura-hammond 105 Current activities, which include measures to improve the formalization, transparency and compliance of the remittance providers in Somalia, will  support this measure. Specifically, the World Bank activities will contribute to developing the regulatory framework and building supervisory capacity in Somalia, pertaining to the money transfer business (MTBs) sector in Somalia. 106  The largest of today have emerged from the dominant money transfer/hawala businesses, and have grown to encompass diverse interests across a range of sectors. Their financial sector interests include banking, microfinance, and mobile money, while non-financial interests span telecommunications (internet and mobile), agriculture, real estate, energy, water distribution, and commodities trading (import-export). Macroeconomic Impact | 71 © UNSOM Women will need to become economically empowered. Furthermore, Somalia can take part in risk pools to access There are a number of interventions that can be insurance solutions. Risk pools create a foundation for considered in this regard. First, the Government, the UN, (a) taking a collective approach to quantitative analysis civil society organizations (CSO) and aid coordination and modeling, (b) improving information sharing and mechanisms should enable a formal, meaningful, coordinated response, (c) pooling diverse exposures consultative forum with women’s groups and networks to before accessing the market, thereby lowering the costs identify, address and monitor the needs and capacities of of coverage, and (d) strengthening regional cooperation women, girls, men and boys. Second, appropriate funds and policy dialogue. The regional risk pool for drought need to be allocated to women’s groups and CSOs who in Africa—African Risk Capacity (ARC)—is now in its third are already working with affected communities and have year of operation and has developed an early warning the context-specific knowledge on the distinct needs, model that can be used to measure and monitor drought priorities and capacities of women, girls, men and boys. risks across the region. Six governments—Burkina Faso, Finally, women must have access to relevant, consistent The Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal—have and timely information to make informed decisions purchased USD 100 million in drought insurance cover. regarding early recovery and rehabilitation processes Specifically, the use of ARC’s drought model and early and phases. warning products could play a larger role in regional risk assessment and monitoring. 72 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 6: Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Develop a Power Master Plan National X Address institutional constraints National in the energy sector with the FGS Increase access in rural areas National X through off grid solar sources Initiate Renewable Energy Resource National X Mapping for wind power Invest in power generation and National X X distribution in next phase of the MPF energy program Cross-border Electrification and National Interconnector Study (being designed for approval) Mobile money for drought response National X 2,000,000 Regulatory support for the ICT Sector National X 400,000 Developing a National ID system National X 100,000 Building the Digital Ecosystem National X TBD Increased access to Internet X X X TBD Financial Services 1,000,000 Building the capacity of the Central National X Bank of Somalia to license and oversee the financial sector Access to micro-finance credit National X X X Total Macroeconomic Needs 3,500,000 Summary of Sector Assessments | 73 Summary of Sector Assessments The DINA synthesis report (Volume I) summarizes the full received almost normal rains and thus experienced reports that have been submitted for each sector and growth of both pasture and crop production compared cross-cutting theme. The full reports can be found in to their poor performance in 2015. Volume II. Damage to irrigation canals has been attributed to Productive Sectors the drought in the Shabelle and Juba valleys, due to desperate livestock climbing over their walls and from additional silting from barren nearby soil and sand being Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop blown into the canal beds. Most damage was suffered Production by banana trees along the Shabelle river, which dried up The Agriculture sector is Somalia’s second largest during the first three months of 2017, and the shallow- source of economic activity, employment, and exports. rooted banana trees could not survive both the lack of Agropastoralists, estimated at 2.8 million or about 23 rains and irrigation. percent of the total population, are mostly poor and The greatest impact of the drought in the agriculture dependent on a mix of settled crop production (both sector has been on crop production losses arising from staple food and cash crops) and livestock rearing and, to both reduced land area under cultivation and reduced a more limited extent, on forestry products. Smallholder yields at harvest. The drought had the largest impact on farming accounts for 80 percent of total crop output rain-fed staple food crops and on the irrigated crops in and 70 percent of marketed agricultural produce. Use the Shabelle valley regions. Physical and monetary losses of appropriate technologies and good agricultural have been large for other crops, mainly fruits, vegetables practices has been very limited, the root cause of and frankincense. As a consequence of both the high Somalia’s low agriculture productivity. livestock-related mortality and output and the losses in In the early part of this decade, Somalia was producing crop production, by early 2017 over 1.6 million people only 22 to 50 percent of the country’s per capita cereal had already exhausted their cereal stocks and become needs. Main staple crops are sorghum, maize and heavily dependent on markets (with cash purchases cowpeas, while the main cash crops are sesame, banana, funded with remittances) and international aid for food. other fruits, vegetables, legumes, frankincense and In crop production, Somali women share activities with myrrh. The only exports in recent years were of sesame, men, while providing more than 60 percent of labor in dry lemons, frankincense and myrrh, unlike in the pre- subsistence farming. Due to their vulnerability, female- war years when banana was by far the major crop export. headed small-scale farming households have been the Agricultural imports have steadily increased, reaching hardest hit by the drought. almost USD 1.5 billion by 2015 from an annual average of only about USD 82 million in the late 1980s. This The drought has forced many rural people to leave their has been the result of low domestic crop production, homes in search of alternative sources of food and water. high demand due to rapid population growth and The drying of the Shabelle River also caused a major urbanization and support through remittances. displacement of riverine farming communities. Most farmers fleeing irrigated areas due to reductions in river The current drought, on top of much reduced river flows are expected to return to their fields once flows flows, has caused major damage and losses to both rain- have returned to normal, but many farmers under rain- fed and irrigated crops, including perennial fruit tree fed conditions may choose to seek new employment crops. Even during the most recent Gu growing season opportunities in urban areas where they can more easily (April-June), many parts of the country received below- receive both aid and remittances. average, sporadic and scattered rainfall. Over the past year, however, the northwestern regions of Somaliland 74 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia/Said Isse Given the revenue and human capacity constraints The main components of a short- and medium-term of the public sector, only the private sector can invest program with the dual objectives of recovery and in the new ventures that are required to increase land resilience strengthening should include: (i) rehabilitation under cultivation, yields and agro-processing, to adopt of prewar flood control and irrigation infrastructure along climate-smart practices, and to offer insurance options the two major rivers in southern and central Somalia and to farmers. their expansion in both northwestern and northeastern regions; (ii) more modern storage techniques and The ongoing drought has contributed to estimated facilities; (iii) rehabilitation of prewar trunk and rural losses and damages totaling USD 311.5 million, of roads to improve transportation of inputs to farms and which USD 247.7 million are losses and USD 63.8 million of produce to markets; (iv) institutional and human are damages. Despite the high damages and losses capacity building, (v) improved access to and adoption and the many challenges that it faces, the country’s of productivity-enhancing and resilient technologies crops agricultural sector remains both viable and critical (Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices), and (vi) to the country’s economic recovery and long-term water and watershed management. In total, the recovery development. Widespread adoption of climate-smart and resilience strengthening needs have been estimated agricultural practices would make a large difference to at USD 500.3 million for the crops sector. both resilience and growth for key rain-fed crops, for which yields and total area under cultivation can be significantly increased. Summary of Sector Assessments | 75 Table 7: Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-Fed Crop Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Improving access to quality National X X X 95,500,029 agricultural inputs for vulnerable rural population and returnees Irrigation canal rehabilitation National X X X 150,040,098 Recovery/resilience of banana National X X X 9,752,500 plantations (small and large)107 Improving farm management National X X X 50,000,013 practices (incl. SMART, post-harvest handling, etc.) Institutional capacity building for National X X X 19,000,006 better governance Rebuilding agriculture research and National X X X 41,000,012 extension system Strengthening informal and building National X X X 20,000,006 formal seed system Water and watershed management National X X X 115,000,000 Total Agriculture Needs 500,292,664 107  ustified by the fact that banana is the only crop whose trees were actually killed by the drought. The banana crop was the only one to experience J damage, while others experienced only losses. 76 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Agriculture – Livestock Livestock is the major source of livelihood for Somalis. Over 60 percent of the population derives a livelihood from pastoralism-based livestock production.108 The sector provides food, employment and incomes and contributes an estimated 40 percent of the GDP and 80 percent of the foreign currency earnings, excluding cash remittances from Somalis in the diaspora, with its exports being Somalia’s leading foreign exchange earner.109 The growth has been boosted by continued export-focused interventions, “good prices,” and growing markets in the Middle East. Recent statistics on livestock export from the FAO show Somalia exported 4.9 million goats and sheep, 294,000 cattle and 72,000 camels in 2015.110 Periodic droughts affect the livestock sector substantially. Insufficient rain and water availability towards the end of 2016 severely reduced water and pasture availability for livestock (Figure 31). The drought stretched the government’s capacity to handle the devastating effects of the drought on pastoralists. This also increased the risk and vulnerability of livestock- dependent households, with the poor losing up to 60 percent of their total stock in some of the most severely affected areas.111 Somalia suffered over USD 1.6 billion in losses and damages in the Crops sector – around 50 percent of the total drought damage and losses – during the drought period. In addition, an estimated USD 400 million revenue loss from live animal exports in 2017 will bring the overall damage and loss to over USD 2 billion. Following the drought, the country faced numerous challenges including but not limited to: absence of fodder reserves and alternatives, the absence of allocated budget by Government to the sector, and weak government institutional capacity to cope with such large-scale drought impact. 108  ederal Government of Somalia. 2016. National Development Plan (2017-2019). F 109 Ibid.  110 FAO. 2017. Baseline and Good Practices Study on Water and Fodder Availability Along the Livestock Trade Routes in the Horn of Africa.  111  Estimated based on FSNAU data. Summary of Sector Assessments | 77 A number of cross-cutting considerations exist in the sector. Women are heavily involved in subsistence farming entailing milk production, meat marketing and poultry production, leaving them particularly affected by the drought’s effects on livestock. The drought has caused massive population movement in search of grazing land and water for livestock, compounding issues related to displacement. The private sector is pivotal in the growth of the livestock trade in terms of provision of essential services and infrastructure development; veterinary services, for example, are exclusively in the hands of the private sector. Given the protracted conflict in the country, governance structures are weak, with limited capacity to handle emergencies of this magnitude. As such, there is an absence of preparedness and risk reduction strategies in place for mitigating the impact and for recovery. 78 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Summary of Sector Assessments | 79 © IOM To support short-term recovery needs, the following priorities are critical for consideration: veterinary services provision; feed and water provision; and restocking in selected districts. For medium-term recovery needs: rehabilitation of livestock watering infrastructure on the rangelands, rehabilitation of the rangelands and enhancing management to minimize conflict with settled farmers cultivating crops under irrigated conditions; improving laboratory facilities for confirmatory disease diagnosis and animal food residue testing to ensure food safety among others. For long-term interventions, strengthening institutional capacity for clinical veterinary services; feed and water development, diversification into poultry production and bee keeping, as well as genetic research and breeding; strengthened regulatory capacity of veterinary services to supervise and regulate quarantine operations and certification for trade among others. The estimated cost for short-, medium- and long- term interventions amounts to USD 110.5 million. 80 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 8: Agriculture – Livestock Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Vaccination against prioritized National X X X 66,500,00 diseases (PPR/CCPP/SGP); Supportive Treatment (on need basis) National X X X 13,860,000 Strengthening community based National X X X 1,134,000 animal health service delivery (CAHWs training and kits supply) and linking them with the private sector Establishing mobile clinics National X X X 500,000 Rehabilitate laboratory facilities National X X X 250,000 Strengthening the public veterinary National X X X 2,500,000 service and SPS Feed Supply (Range Cube and National X X X 1,000,000 Mineral Blocks) and feed stores Construction/Rehabilitation Fodder production and Management National X X X 3,000,000 Redistribution (1 percent of the National X X X 6,000,000 total damage for sheep and goats (167,317) among very poor and poor households) with focus in South Central regions) Rehabilitation of livestock water National X X X 4,000,000 infrastructures Rangeland management National X X X 5,000,000 Capacity Development National X X X 2,000,000 Poultry Production National X X X 1,250,000 Bee keeping National X X X 1,000,000 Genetic research and breeding National X X X 2,500,000 Total Livestock Needs 110,494,000 Summary of Sector Assessments | 81 Agriculture – Fisheries million if it is assumed that 25 percent of those fishers who earn an income (part-time/seasonal/full-time) from Somalia’s marine fishery dominates the fisheries sector, fishing have lost their assets; (iii) loss of and/or restricted and coastal communities are heavily dependent on access to fishing grounds if river beds silt up and water/ fishing, carried out mostly by men. Women dominate river-flow does not return to a proper level for bleeding fish processing, trading and support activities, and some and harboring of the fish; (iv) loss of food and sources women are multiple boat owners, although there are of important nutrients due to reduced catch; and (v) no specific numbers available to quantify the division of significance of post-harvest loss as the drought affects labor in the sector between men and women. However, purchasing power. fishing is a seasonal activity for many rural dwellers, including pastoralists, and often an important source The impact of drought to the fisheries sector includes: of supplementary food and cash income. On much of (i) influx of people into the coastal communities, as Somali’s Indian Ocean coastline, fishing ceases entirely their livestock died; most of them do not engage in during the months of the strongest southwest monsoon fishing, or compete for limited fish; (ii) unsustainable season (June-September), and many communities fishing practices as new fishermen resort to using return to a pastoral existence. Fish consumption in environmentally damaging fishing gear; (iii) the Somalia is one of the lowest in Africa, at about 3.1 kg per possibility of conflicts of control and use of limited area capita per year.112 for fishing; and (iv) decline in sources of livelihoods for families dependent on seasonal fishing due to the There is no history of aquaculture, but there is a small reduced and destroyed river streams; inland fishery sector, mostly based on two riverine systems: the Shabelle River (flowing through Hiraan, Women play a significant role in inland fisheries (either Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle) and the Juba River fishing and/or trading fish) and as such have been (flowing through Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo). severely impacted in terms of their livelihoods and According to FAO FishStat data, total inland production food security. As fishing is one of several activities that has stagnated at 200 metric tons (MT) per year over the households engage in, there is likely to be moderate last decade.113 to significant impact dependent on the importance of fishing to household income generation and food For the inland fishery, the effect of the drought in the security. Droughts may negatively affect fish breeding six regions of relevance is as follows: (i) disruption to and fishing grounds, but may also impact coastal the spawning migrations and spawning grounds of key communities through the drying up of low-lying coastal fish species–in extreme cases the drying up of river beds areas and salt-water ingress into brackish water estuaries. resulted in spawning stock mortalities, (ii) when water levels are low, fishing may no longer be possible (access The recovery needs are based on the following key to the water, water too shallow, destruction of fish assumptions: there is no direct costed impact of the habitat), (iii) boats may be stranded and in extreme cases drought on the marine fisheries sector. Prioritization boats and/or fishing gear may be sold if the owner has would therefore need to be done by the communities no other income, (iv) loss of income (to the individual/ dependent on the inland fisheries sector; the inland household) and upstream in terms of expenditure in the fishery is seasonal, and therefore fishing activity for local economy), (v) collapse of riverbanks and/or change most households is only one of several activities that in river courses as rivers dry up and/or siltation with the household engages in. The numbers provided in the renewed flooding (post-drought), and (vi) the collapse inland fisheries income-loss spreadsheet suggest that the of markets—both primary and secondary markets—and level of household mixed fish and crop livelihood activity value addition. varies between insignificant (<10 percent fishing activity) to 40 percent. The total number of households obtaining The effects of the drought to the fisheries sector include a proportion of income and food from inland fishing is (i) loss of income as a direct result of reduced landings; taken as 50 percent of the total target population of (ii) loss of assets as families depending on fisheries are 91,209 households (as some states/regions have access forced to sell their fishing gear (lines, nets and/or boat) to coastal fisheries, which is excluded from the DINA). – this has been quantified as approximately USD 1.24 112 2  009 data – no more recent data exists. World Bank and FAO. 2017. Somalia - Rebuilding Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture (draft). 113 EU and FAO. 2014. Fisheries in the ESA-IO Region: Profile and Trends Somalia.  82 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Box 5: Training Women Strengthens Fishing Communities Canab Mumin Farax fled Mogadishu 16 years ago at the height of the civil war. Today she lives with her family in a temporary settlement camp in the city of Bossaso (Puntland State). Canab is a member of a community group of internally displaced persons who processes sun-dried fish at the Ajuuran B camp on the outskirts of Bossaso, and then sells the final product to nearby businesses and inland city markets. On a normal day, the team begins work early in the morning, when fresh fish is delivered from the landing site in Bossaso and stored in ice coolers. The team members clean the fish and slice-off the fillets, which are then laid out on racks to dry in the sun. It takes about 14 to 16 hours for the fillets to dry before they are packed and sealed. The dried fish is then sold in supermarket outlets around Bossaso under the brand “Kalluun Qalajisan”, meaning dried fish. The dried fish is thus commercialized, but the fish remnants are also completely utilized. They are used to cook and provide a highly nutritious and low fat meal that is then distributed among the community, which has some of the most disadvantaged households in Somalia. Canab is one of the more than 70 women training under the Joint Program on Youth Employment Somalia (YES), which, in the case of Bossaso, has been implemented by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Puntland State government to help develop the fish value production chain in Somalia. Beneficiaries are identified within disadvantaged communities and trained in the processing and marketing of dried fish, thus adding value to this product. For Canab, this could signal an end to trekking under the scorching sun to sell cooked fish at a market next to the bus station in Bossaso to sustain her family. Source: United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) Therefore, needs as presented in the table below include: (i) distribution of fish nets; (ii) development of fish landing sites; (iii) development of spate-fed desert aquaculture; and (iv) development of dried fish. Table 9: Agriculture – Fisheries Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Distribution of fishing kits Regional X 150,000 Development of fish landing sites Regional X 2,000,000 Development of spate fed Regional X 1,500,000 desert aquaculture Development of dried fish Regional X 2,000,000 Total Fisheries Needs 5,650,000 Summary of Sector Assessments | 83 Physical Sectors Furthermore, drought has affected not only the quantity but also the quality of drinking water. There are noticeable weaknesses in the water sector related Water Supply and Sanitation to water quality testing and monitoring. Weaknesses Water resources in Somalia are dominated by in regulating water quality are compounded by the groundwater, with the surface water mainly found along relatively poor understanding of how the water supplies the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in the southern part of the become contaminated and the risks associated with the country. During extreme dry periods, the flow in both use of contaminated water. rivers is not able to adequately support domestic and The water supply and sanitation related damages agricultural water needs for the riverine communities. include complete drying up of boreholes, shallow Water resource and water supply development over wells, hand-dug wells, berkads, dams, water pans the past 20 years has been dominated by non-state and springs. The losses in water supply and sanitation humanitarian actors. are: higher cost for the households to access quality During the baseline period of 2013-2015, Somalia water, higher production cost of water, costs related to Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) temporary water deliveries, and provision of sanitation estimated that there were around 3,733 water points, services. Sanitation services in urban and peri-urban 61 percent (2,261 sources) of which were reported to be areas of Somalia are stretched and deteriorated due to perennial under normal conditions. Higher proportions the influx of IDPs who migrated as a result of drought. of berkads114 and dams supply water for only part of Small urban towns already had poor drainage, sewage the year compared to other sources.115 In other parts of and solid waste management infrastructure. Additional the country, rainwater harvesting through the provision population has had a severe impact on sanitation of dug outs (wars)116, berkads117 and mugciids118 to services. In rural settings, depletion of water sources impound surface runoff during the two rainy seasons— resulted in non-functionality of the water supply system, Gu (April to June) and Deyr (October to December)—is depriving communities access to a minimum quantity a common feature of the water supply infrastructure in of water needed for drinking, sanitation and hygiene. rural communities. Needs were estimated considering the requirement to bring back required service levels both for humans As Somalia goes through a series of devastating and livestock to pre-drought levels and for internally and frequent droughts, the impact on the country’s displaced populations in urban areas. The needs hydrologic cycle is substantial, manifested with assessment has duly considered the sustainability immediate drying up of surface and ground water of services and resilience building of the sector by sources. The effect of such a troubled cycle, beyond the focusing on institutional strengthening and sector immediate impact on human lives and livestock, includes capacity building. decline in ground water recharge, depletion of fresh water aquifers, reduction of surface water flow and other long-term damages. In March 2016 and February to mid- March 2017, the Shabelle River dried out completely, unseen in over 30 years. 114 C  IA. 2013. The World Fact Book: Somalia. 115 Most berkads, dams and dug wells which supply water for a limited period within the year have not been mapped.  116 Wars are dams or impoundments up to 3 m depth built in clayey soils that retain surface run-off from rain with capacity of 1,500 to 50,000m3  117  Berkads have capacities of 10 to 100 m3. Covering with shrubs or iron sheets reduces evaporation, thereby extending the period of use. 118 Mugciids are underground storage wells with an average depth of 15m that are used to supplement supply when all other sources are depleted.  84 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Box 6: Safe Drinking Water Promises Health Benefits Seventy-four year old Mariam Omar Farah could not hide her excitement when she heard her town would, for the first time, receive piped clean water that week. Mariam lives in a shack with eight family members including grandchildren, one hundred meters from the main reservoir tank of the new project. A 2015 UNICEF survey found that just over half the households in Somaliland (56 percent) had access to safe drinking water, while over half the households in the country still take over 30 minutes to fetch water. The piped water would provide great benefits for the town of Wajaale. The drought has contributed to a huge increase in people suffering from water-borne diseases in Somaliland, and the successful completion of the pipeline would lead to large health benefits for the people of Wajaale. The local rain-fed water pan is about a kilometer from the town, but the water is contaminated by human and animal feces, which has led to disease outbreaks. During the dry season, the water dries up and people and water vendors travel to a seasonal river 15 kilometers away. Under the project, the water is pumped to Wajaale’s tank from a borehole in a village 24 kilometers away. This groundwater, found below the water table, is of good quality and does not need to be treated. Pipes are being laid to public kiosks with taps where the public is charged for each jerrycan and, also, for those who can afford it, to private homes with water meters. While those far from kiosks will continue to rely on water sellers, the price of water is expected to drop drastically. Source: UNICEF Somalia Summary of Sector Assessments | 85 The effects of the drought include over 80 percent Women and girls traveling to and from IDP settlements of the shallow wells drying up and the water levels of are exposed to serious risk of violence while traveling most boreholes decreasing to abnormally low levels. to water points and sanitation facilities that are limited The droughts and over two decades of conflict in and located far from homes. The scarcity of water Somalia have weakened the water supply and sanitation and absence of men due to drought and conflict have sector governance, representing the core challenge resulted in an increase in women’s work burden in the to sustained water supply and sanitation services. This household. Women and girls, who have the primary includes inadequate policies and strategies, standards responsibility for collecting water for domestic use, are and guidelines and the lack of a regulatory framework now traveling increased distances in search of water. for service providers. Furthermore, water scarcity has Women and girls accessing latrines at night are at increased the risk and vulnerabilities of women, children, increased risk of becoming victims of sexual harassment IDPs, and livestock. or assault. Finally, the drought has caused water points to become the center of inter/intra social group conflict With decreased access to safe water, compounded for control, access and use of water for human and by the drying up of rivers, lack of technical expertise livestock needs. to rehabilitate the few existing over-congested water sources resulted in the escalation of acute water- The ongoing drought has inflicted USD 41.9 million and sanitation-related diseases. The prevalence of worth of damages to water infrastructure and USD childhood illnesses has also increased. The unavailability 20.5 million of related losses. With a view to bring and shortage of water have led to violent interclan back service to humans and livestock to pre-drought conflicts due to scarce food and water services, which levels, and to build the capacity of sector institutions for will degenerate and worsen Somalia’s security situation, sustainable and more resilient and long-term recovery, leading to more conflict and displacement. sector needs are estimated at USD 180.7 million as detailed in the table below. Table 10: Water Supply and Sanitation Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Construction of new boreholes National X X X 77,000,000 Rehabilitation of National X 15,200,000 non-functional boreholes Construction of new National X 1,935,000 protected shallow wells Rehabilitation and protection National X X 2,184,000 of non-functional shallow wells Construction of new berkads National X 203,000 Rehabilitation of berkads National X 216,000 Institutional strengthening National X 34,000,000 and Capacity building Urban rural sanitation District/municipal X X X 50,000,000 (drainage, sewage and solid level waste management) Total Water Supply and Sanitation Needs 180,738,000 86 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Transport The transport sector is considered an enabling sector for other sectors, providing linkages to regional trade and socio-economic activities. In Somalia, roads are the only mode of land transportation in the country; therefore, the assessment and interventions of the sector have been concentrated on them as they provide access to areas affected by the drought. Roads in Somalia are in poor condition due to lack of proper maintenance, a decades-long civil war which damaged the transport infrastructure significantly, and further inaccessibility due to security constraints. Somalia is highly urbanized, with most of the population living in or near cities. According to the 2014 Population Estimations Survey for Somalia (PESS), 5.2 million people–about 40 percent of the total population— live in urban areas.119 This means that the majority still lives far from a road that is in good or fair condition. Out of the 21,830km of roads120 (including unclassified feeder roads), less than 10 percent of the total network is estimated to be in good or fair condition (Figure 33), affecting many farmers and pastoralists who still live in rural, drought-affected areas not well connected to commercial markets. Although the transport infrastructure is not directly impacted by the drought, there are secondary effects IDP settlements in Kismayo in relation to primary road burdening its services and contributing to increased infrastructure. Access to transport is a key service for prices of commodities. Transporters are affected due IDPs, as it connects IDPs to livelihood opportunities to scarcity of commodities (e.g., agricultural products), and access to additional municipal services, and should which then need to be transported over longer distances, be considered when planning future transport causing them to incur losses, and translating into higher infrastructure works. fuel costs. Consequently, these costs end up being paid The transport sector considers several cross-cutting by the end-user and are evidenced by huge differences sectors that are expected to be employed for recovery between farm gate and retail prices for most commodities. and resilience such as social protection, displacement Seasonal jobs offered by transporters (e.g., truck drivers, and environment. Labor-intensive methods of road assistants, transport laborers and mechanics) would also rehabilitation will be considered for rehabilitation works, be affected negatively. Furthermore, security remains a while schemes will be designed in such a way that challenge and implementation of any set of interventions local people are engaged whilst ensuring good quality will be affected by it. According to the WFP, some of the works through proper supervision and monitoring. The primary roads are currently closed or difficult to pass movement of people will cause some areas to have due to conflict, while other roads are impassable due to inadequate local workers for labor-intensive works, while broken bridges. Interventions in conflict areas require more work-demand would be available where people intense consultation with communities to avoid inducing have migrated. Works programs will need to take this into conflict when carrying out works and to avoid activities consideration when designing projects. Environmental that would facilitate al-Shabaab activities and bring issues should also be considered in all road works. For overall negative impacts. instance, the natural habitat of pests and animals would There is also evidence of transport infrastructure’s need to be conserved as much as possible, and trees influence on IDP settlement patterns. Figure 34 shows should not be cut unnecessarily during implementation. 119 F  ederal Republic of Somalia. 2014. Population Estimation Survey 2014: For the 18 Pre-war Regions of Somalia. 120 Federal Republic of Somalia. 2016. Somalia National Development Plan (2017-2019).  Summary of Sector Assessments | 87 Table 11: Transport Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Short-term rehabilitation, Regional X 83,600,000 reconstruction and maintenance of 1099km of roads Medium-term rehabilitation, Regional X 64,300,000 reconstruction and maintenance of 1008km of roads Total Transport Needs 147,900,000 For sectors directly impacted by the drought (e.g., agriculture, food security, water supply and sanitation, and health), the transport sector will support their recovery and resilience efforts by providing improved linkages between the population, social services and markets. Recovery interventions include rehabilitation and maintenance of roads and bridges at a cost of USD 147.9 million, aimed at providing improved linkages, targeting areas that are hard hit by the drought and those that require various relief initiatives. The initiatives are expected to contribute to people’s socio-economic activities and improve their livelihoods through improved accessibility and short-term employment from the labor- intensive road rehabilitation works. The building-back- better concept will be applied for sustainability of the rehabilitation works. The interventions recommended for the transport sector are short-term rehabilitation (reconstruction and maintenance of 1,099 km of roads) and medium-term rehabilitation (reconstruction and maintenance of 1,008 km of roads). 88 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Environment, Clean Energy, and Natural Resource Management The environment and natural resources of Somalia are a source of economic livelihood for millions of Somalis. About 98 percent of Somalia is dry landmass, with less than 2 percent of the country under water. Dictated by shifts in the wind patterns, the country’s environmental resources and agricultural livelihoods revolve around four main seasons, and failure of the two rainy seasons typically has severe consequences. Dependence on the sector has had significant impact throughout the years, including depletion of vegetation resources and forest cover. The 2016-17 drought in Somalia has had immense environmental impacts. This study estimates a national average loss of 68 percent of natural standing vegetation in the drought period (or 113,282 km2, accounting for 18 percent of the total national landmass), potentially affecting the lives and livelihoods of an estimated 6 million (or nearly 50 percent) of the estimated total population. In general, this assessment estimates the damages and losses in the environment sector to be approximately USD 564.8 million and USD 610.7 million respectively, which require USD 99.9 m in recovery costs. Table 12: Damages and Losses in the ENR sector in Somalia, 2017 Region Vegetative Biomass Biodiversity Impact on Soil Household Total Productivity and Resources and Energy and Fodder Availability Soil Quality Fuelwood Losses Damages Losses Damages Losses Damages Losses Damages Losses Damages Losses NW Area 35.1 38.2 0.1 63.8 4.8 0.8 63.6 53 103.6 155.8 NE Area 73 90.8 0.2 8.2 10.5 0.8 79.4 66.2 163.1 166 Juba 71.9 89.3 - - 10 0.5 54.9 45.8 136.8 135.6 River Area Interreverine/ 43.3 49.6 - - 5.5 0.4 29.9 25 78.7 75 Other Shebelle 44.6 51.4 - - 5.7 0.3 32 26.6 82.3 78.3 River Area National 268 319.3 0.4 72 36.6 2.8 259.9 216.6 564.8 610.7 Totals Summary of Sector Assessments | 89 © UNDP Somalia There has been severe impact on the soil resources of complement of goats, sheep, camels, and cattle), Somalia because of the current drought. This assessment but also its wildlife. In addition, biodiversity-related projects that 93,000 tons of topsoil have been eroded livelihoods, such as frankincense, myrrh, etc., have as a direct result of the drought in 2017, in the process been adversely affected due to the drought’s impact resulting in aggregate damages and losses in soil fertility on the natural growing zones. The drought has also functions and ecosystem services estimated at USD triggered excessive extraction of these resources due to 36 million and USD 3 million, respectively. In addition, diminishing conventional livelihoods elsewhere. charcoal production has gone up by 50 percent because of the drought, as a subsistence livelihoods option to This study makes a number of recommendations (short-, replace employment in farming and livestock rearing medium-, and long-term) to remedy the situation. They activities. This has had the effect of desiccating over include capacity building of Government institutions, 90,000 hectares of forest and woodlands, significantly support to legislation and policy development, and direct contributing to aboveground biodiversity degradation, interventions. Suggested direct interventions include loss of soil flora and fauna and acceleration of the scaling up evergreen agriculture by integrating with process of desertification, estimated at USD 216 million. trees-on-farm agroforestry systems for better resilience, as well as rehabilitation of important vegetative resources The continued effect of droughts and inappropriate badly affected by drought by promoting the adoption land use practices have also paired to result in of sustainable, low-cost land restoration techniques widespread destruction of plant life, which has in such as farmer-managed natural regeneration (FMNR) turn also fragmented and decreased animal habitats and integrated soil fertility management systems (ISFM) and reduced forage, negatively impacting not only for drylands. Somalia’s most important economic resource (livestock 90 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 13: Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resource Management Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Emergency capacity building of National X 2,000,000 government forest rangers Emergency re-seeding of selected National X 10,000,000 rangelands with fast-growing grass species and setting up of germplasm mother blocks (seed production zones for indigenous fruit tree species) Improvement of energy efficiency National X 8,000,000 of existing charcoal carbonization and kilning systems Scaling up evergreen agriculture Southern Somalia X 17,000,000 (integrating with trees-on-farm agroforestry) and ISFM and training forest end users on sustainable extractive techniques for NWFPs Development of legislation to National X 1,000,000 support zoning of wildlife parks, migratory corridors Cleaner and renewable National X 15,000,000 energy sources – promotion of energy-efficiency Technical capacity improvement National X 4,000,000 of Somali government - remote sensing, GIS, national lab Cleaner and renewable energy National X X 27,000,000 sources –promotion of solar energy technologies and promoting the use of LPG in Somalia Rehabilitation of selected gullies and National X 11,000,000 other severely degraded ecosystems in the North and promoting wide- scale adoption of low-cost integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) for improving soil resources Assisting the Somali government National X X 3,000,000 with the development of a biomass energy policy Develop a power plan National X 853,510 Cross-border electrification National X 1,000,000 and interconnector study Total Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resource Management Needs121 99,853,510 121 n assessing the environmental sector, there is a noticeably large difference between the cost of damages and losses (USD 524m and USD 606m, I respectively), and the cost of recovery (USD 99.85m, which has a suggested implementation period of up to 5 years). This is largely due to the method of valuation of environmental resources, which takes into account the generation of these assets over years, losses that persist for a long time, and several intangible features, as well as the existing absorptive capacity of governmental systems in Somalia. Summary of Sector Assessments | 91 © UNDP Somalia Social Sectors Health In terms of health indicators, Somalia ranks among the weakest countries in the world. In 2015, maternal mortality ratio (MMR) was the sixth highest,122 and immunization coverage was among the lowest in the world.123 In 2016 the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) was the highest in the world.124 Overall life expectancy at birth is very low compared to the rest of the region, and the country was unable to achieve any of its health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). These issues are compounded by the fact that the total fertility rate is very high and is increasing over time. The conflict-related fragility of Somalia over the past two and a half decades has resulted in the weakening of the health sector, its systems and its personnel, with a related focus on emergency response interventions to recurrent crises. Countrywide, there is less than 1 health facility per 10,000 people, and many health posts do not operate fully due to human resource and infrastructure constraints.125 Table 14: Key Baseline Data for the Health Sector 2016 2015 2014 2013 Diseases Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths Cases Deaths AWD/Cholera 15619 548 7536 84 2820 140 6864 200 Measles 3843 0 7497 0 10229 0 3173 0 GAM cases 206016 151015 218300 206100 SAM cases 43850 51250 Source: http://apps.who 122  32 per 100,000 live births - WHO. 2015. Trends in Maternal Mortality: 1990 to 2015. 7 123 Somalia ranks fourth among countries with lowest DPT3 coverage globally of 42 percent - WHO and UNICEF, 2015.  Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC). 124 133 per 1000 live births - UNICEF. 2017. Levels and Trends in Child Mortality.  125 WHO. 2015. Strategic Review of the Somali Health Sector: Challenges and Prioritized Actions.  92 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment The drought has led to worsened food insecurity, indirect given their link to interceding circumstances inadequate water supply and large population such as the loss of livelihoods. However, some impacts movement. The advent of the drought coupled with are palpable. The drought has worsened food insecurity, persistent insecurity has left most of the health work in which has led to large-scale malnutrition, directly the hands of NGOs and bilateral donors. With minimal affecting the health of the population. Mass displacement or no financing from the central government, this has placed large numbers of the population at risk of has created challenges in the form of access to basic malnutrition and disease. Reduction of most of the health care. pre-existing water sources has created an increased dependence on use of water from private vendors or, for No damages to the sector can be solely attributable those that cannot afford to, an increased dependence to drought. Losses in the sector primarily stem from on unprotected and unsafe water sources, leading to increase in the number of new cases of disease, and a high risk of contracting water-borne diseases such increase in mobile health units leading to increased as Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD)/cholera. Measles and cost of maintaining and managing these units. Losses in other viral respiratory infections have also increased due terms of USD are detailed in Table 15. to dry conditions and overcrowding in IDP settlements. Malaria, AWD/cholera, and other water-borne diseases The overall health effects of the drought are difficult are likely to spread further with the expected Gu rains to measure, partly because effects tend to accumulate particularly in new, congested settlements for IDPs, due over time, and partly, because health impacts can be Table 15: Health Sector Loss Zones Cholera Losses Primary-basic Measles Losses Total Losses Health Losses Awdal - 471,591 2,324 473,915 Woqooyi Galbeed - 1,674,404 30,860 1,705,263 Togdheer 86,695 933,759 50,200 1,070,653 Sool 32,622 740,645 14,368 787,635 Sanaag 26,359 2,872,248 - 2,898,607 Bari 40,560 1,107,777 28,661 1,176,998 Nugaal 57,009 1,086,742 8,671 1,152,421 Mudug 62,446 1,785,506 29,785 1,877,737 Galgaduud 94,196 2,818,960 11,869 2,925,026 Hiraan 8,764 1,455,726 29,960 1,494,450 Middle shabele 57,146 3,840,978 10,845 3,908,969 Benadir 159,785 1,158,434 98,776 1,416,994 Lower Shabelle 128,448 3,299,297 31,459 3,459,204 Bay 342,122 1,711,183 - 2,053,305 Bakool 89,012 686,858 - 775,869 Gedo 128,975 1,598,081 - 1,727,056 Middle Juba - 541,680 - 541,680 Lower Juba 70,498 3,053,807 - 3,124,306 Grand Total 1,384,638 30,837,675 347,776 32,570,088 Summary of Sector Assessments | 93 © UNSOM to overcrowding, poor sanitation facilities and insufficient health should take into consideration the availability of access to safe water. A household survey conducted as private sector partners in delivering health services. This part of the DINA process concluded that IDPs are 2.5 is especially in view of the mostly destroyed and non- times more likely not to have access to medical health functional health infrastructure and a chronic shortage of services and 3.4 times more likely than residents to human resource for health (HRH). have poor/fair health status.126 They were also 1.6 times more likely than residents to report not having access to To achieve the above recovery goals, approximately gender-based violence health services.127 USD 82.13 million would be required for a number of short-, medium- and long-term interventions, including: Gender considerations remain critical, with most of treatment of increased incidence of cholera; treatment the affected and displaced being children and women, of people receiving primary and/or basic secondary especially within the context of accompanying conflict. health care services; and treatment of increased measles Special mechanisms for women and children to access cases. While the HRH gap is projected to expand over care and nutritional support should be established. the coming years, and, in the long term, additional These will enable equity in the distribution of available investments in the sector are needed to increase the inputs to the communities. The private sector remains a number of training institutions in the country, a calculation powerful partner for providing health services in Somalia. of the related needs has not been undertaken for the Indeed, without the private sector, the overall impact on immediate term of this exercise. health would have been unimaginable. Any financing for 126  orld Bank and Ipsos. 2017. Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA). W 127 Ibid.  94 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 16: Summary Needs for Health Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Engaging the public in National X X X 4,118,187 promotion of health, hygiene and safe drinking water, sanitation, environmental hygiene, food safety and safe waste disposal Promoting food borne diseases National X X X 4,118,187 laboratory-based surveillance by developing food safety guidelines and interventions Introducing standardized rapid National X X X 2,470,912 diagnostic technologies for prevalent communicable diseases Active disease surveillance National X X X 4,118,187 and early warning system Prepositioning medical supplies National X X X 4,118,187 and kits to undertake coordinated rapid response Establishing an effective health National X X X 2,470,912 information system that provides accurate and timely health data for evidence planning and implementation, supported by monitoring and evaluation Increasing cholera treatment National X X X 8,236,375 Centre’s in all regions Promoting participation in National X X X 4,118,187 improving public health at community level Ensure availability of essential National X X X 22,007,180 medicines, vaccines and commodities Establishing emergency National X X X 4,118,187 response services Ensuring immunization of all National X X X 8,236,375 children and pregnant women against the major child killer diseases sanctioned by the health authorities including campaigns Deploying more health care work- National X X X 5,765,462 ers that are competent on tasks and treat patients with dignity, respect and compassion Supporting fixed and National X X X 8,236,375 mobile clinics Total Health Needs 82,132,713 Summary of Sector Assessments | 95 Nutrition Both GAM and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) appear correlated with period of famine and severe drought as Somalia is among the ten countries with the highest shown in Figure 35. For instance, the period between prevalence of malnutrition in the world, and the third Gu 2011 and Dyer 2011 represented the most severe highest in the eastern and southern Africa region, famine in Somalia, followed by periods of relative good with 17.42 percent Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rains showing a decline of GAM and SAM cases. Again, amongst children under five years (U5) and 3.2 percent the onset of Gu 2016 season shows a rapid deterioration severely malnourished.128 The causes are multiple and of the nutrition situation up from 12.2 percent in 2015 complex. Apart from insecurity, climate and seasonal to the current GAM rate of 17.4 percent, which is factors and notable poverty among some communities, close to the 18 percent GAM level observed during the dominant child care practices and select socio-cultural 2011 famine. beliefs (e.g. weak infant and child feeding and care practices, combined with poor hygiene, the lack of Good nutrition is an investment in the future of Somali basic health and WASH facilities, and women’s excessive children. Nutritious diets fuel children’s growth, drive workloads) were seen to be core drivers of malnutrition brain development, strengthen learning potential, in southern and central Somalia.129 enhance productivity in adulthood and pave the way 128 U  NICEF. 2014. State of the World’s Children Report 2014. 129 WFP and SNS Consortium. 2015. Nutrition Causality Analysis (NCA) Study.  96 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment to a more sustainable and prosperous Somalia. Poor The nutrition situation continues to deteriorate, nutrition has a great impact on child development, partly due to food insecurity, morbidity, lack of milk as well as school attendance and performance. Poor and high disease burden in many households. The nutrition also affects productivity, leading to loss Lower Shebelle region had a higher malnutrition of income and perpetuating the circle of poverty. prevalence with approximately 31,200 U5s being acutely The drought- and insecurity-driven influx of IDPs into malnourished in June and July 2017. This includes major urban centers is compounding the already 24,200 MAM and 7,000 SAM children.130 There were also deteriorating situation. significant increases in GAM cases from Deyr 2016/17 and Gu 2016. Other notable significant increases were Immediate losses were incurred in treating SAM and in SAM cases in the same period. Further, critical levels moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) children and of GAM are present in most areas, driven by lower than pregnant and lactating women (PLW), mass screenings normal food access, increased waterborne illness during and operational costs for the delivery of a comprehensive the rainy season, and poor access to health services. package of preventive, curative and promotional High disease incidence (e.g., AWD/cholera, measles) is services in static and mobile outreach clinics in further exacerbating acute malnutrition. hard-to-reach areas. Table 17: Nutrition Sector Losses SAM Losses GAM Losses Total Losses Awdal 14,188 81,214 95,403 Woqooyi Galbeed 29,540 121,234 150,773 Togdheer 44,918 86,520 131,439 Sool 19,006 101,948 120,954 Sanaag 27,040 112,048 139,088 Bari 25,686 189,970 215,656 Nugaal 26,373 149,566 175,940 Mudug 52,700 264,973 317,673 Galgaduud 32,867 150,315 183,183 Hiraan 28,230 107,984 136,215 Middle shabele 32,360 88,736 121,097 Benadir 159,260 397,853 557,113 Lower Shabelle 65,830 203,317 269,147 Bay 35,564 76,116 111,680 Bakool 26,883 102,992 129,876 Gedo 37,274 113,543 150,818 Middle Juba 446 613 1,059 Lower Juba 29,202 96,273 125,475 Grand Total 687,371 2,445,216 3,132,587 130 FSNAU. 2017. Somalia Post Gu Seasonal Food Security and Nutrition Assessment: Major Findings and Recommendations: October 2016.  Summary of Sector Assessments | 97 © UNSOM Critical issues with access to food continue in the country. A survey conducted for the DINA found that 71 percent of respondents did not have enough food within the month subsequent to the survey being conducted. Households have been forced to resort to limiting portions of consumed meals, shifting to less preferred foods, restricting adult consumption to leave more food for children, and relying on donations.131 See Figure 36. 131 World Bank and Ipsos. 2017. Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA).  98 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Box 7: Nutrition Center Saves Lives of Drought-affected Children Overall the nutrition situation in Somalia continues to deteriorate. However, hundreds of children’s lives have been saved by a modest nutrition center in the middle of dusty Baidoa town in southern Somalia. In the center, worried mothers sit quietly on mats, babies strapped on their backs and toddlers playing with cups of water or chewing on sachets of therapeutic peanut paste. The prolonged drought has hit this area, which was the epicenter of the 2011 famine, very badly. As consecutive rainy seasons failed, the livestock died, and there was little in the way of local harvests of maize and sorghum. Buley Ali Mursal perches, squashed between other mothers, on the low concrete bench. She brought her children here from their village 20 kilometers away after they began to look weak and listless. They didn’t have any harvest in 2017 for themselves or to sell, and the children were eating just maize. Habiba, another mother, moved with her 10-month old, Binti, and five siblings to a makeshift settlement from their village a month ago, when their goats and cows died, as well as the crops. Her husband makes a small amount of money loading trucks and she fetches firewood. Binti was looking very weak so she came to the center and now her health has improved over the past month. So far in 2017, nearly 1,300 children with life threatening malnutrition have been cured after enrolling in the program. The NGO DMO runs three other mobile clinics covering 15 settlements for the displaced around Baidoa. WFP also provides supplies for the family when the child is discharged. In 2017, UNICEF and partners have delivered life-saving treatment to over 180,000 children throughout Somalia suffering from life threatening severe acute malnutrition. Source: UNICEF IDP settlements are particularly vulnerable to number of cases seen in these groups reflects the malnutrition. SMART surveys conducted by FSNAU in dire nutrition situation in the country, and they require June 2017 indicate critical levels of acute malnutrition specific inclusion in all mitigation measures. Social in nine out of 12 IDP settlements.132 Ipsos survey protection and safety nets will be a critical area for results found that IDPs were four times more likely recovery; relapse into SAM following treatment should than residents to report not having enough food to be prevented as much as possible, and such measures eat as one of their top three most urgent relief needs. would help achieve that by increasing the likelihood of IDPs were also four times more likely than residents to families accessing food and water. With the increased report that their household experienced a decreased likelihood of food insufficiency in migrant communities, number of meals per day as a result of the drought. they will benefit most from increasing mobile clinics Furthermore, food status is 1.4 times more likely to have and nutrition support programs. The role of the private gotten worse than stayed the same due to the current sector is crucial in the support of nutrition rehabilitation drought for either IDPs or households with a child under and recovery programs, given their direct interaction the age of 5.133 with communities - they have a better understanding of local issues, thus their input in the design of such Gender is a key consideration as nutrition challenges programs is vital. during drought affect mostly children, pregnant and lactating women (PLW) and older people. The higher 132  Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit – Somalia (FSNU) 2017. Food Security and Nutrition Quarterly Brief: July 2017. 133 bid. I Summary of Sector Assessments | 99 Given the continuing drought, major challenges The recovery needs for the sector will include: remain such as the availability of adequate food and strengthening prevention and live-saving treatment for constraints on the ability of communities to be resilient. acute malnutrition in children U5 and PLW to be delivered Access to quality health care and WASH services for the at scale. Critical activities include regular provision and most vulnerable remain a major challenge. Although implementation of other interventions such as Vitamin A care and treatment for children with SAM is life-saving, supplementation and deworming; nutrition surveillance; if nothing is done to address underlying causes, these monitoring and evaluation; capacity building and children remain at risk. Hence the need for external procurement of materials required for child and maternal assistance to mitigate the impact of the drought will health and nutrition promotion. In view of the high be more prolonged until communities are able support number of IDP and displaced communities as a result of themselves as the drought recedes. The immediate the drought, increased provision of nutrition treatment and medium-term needs remain high. Both the FGS through static and mobile outreach services is essential. and the UN and other partners need to prioritize nutrition as one of the drivers of resilience building, as it affects the next generation in terms of productivity and national development. Table 18: Nutrition Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Surveillance and M&E operations National X X X 10,413,189 Mobile clinic and nutrition National X X X 20,826,378 rehabilitation vans Vitamin A supplementation National X X X 1,561,978 People living with HIV and AIDS National X X X 2,082,638 Deworming National X X X 1,561,978 Capacity building National X X X 15,619,783 Procurement of material and National X X X 20,826,378 rehabilitation Health promotion and community National X X X 10,413,189 mobilization Implementation and National X X X 20,826,378 operational support Total Nutrition Needs 104,131,888 100 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia/Dreamcatcher Education Displacement as a result of the drought has resulted primary net attendance undertaken in 2006.136 IDPs are in over 926,000 people moving across different among those who face the highest education inequities regions with Benadir, Bay, Lower Shabelle and Mudug in Somalia. hosting an increase of IDP arrivals, during the period November 2016 to September 2017.134 Drought-related According to the UNHCR Protection and Return displacement has drastically affected children’s access Monitoring Network (PRMN), the data indicates a to education services with over 118,008 children’s (38.8 possible pattern of intra-regional displacement, which percent female) learning reported as disrupted due to the affects enrollment. The drought has not spared some of prolonged drought.135 Overall, more than half of children the best performing regions in terms of enrollment. The in the country were out of school before the drought, highest numbers and proportions of children ‘forced and school drop-outs add to Somalia’s existing low levels out’ of education due to drought, potential famine and of school enrollment and education attainment; some associated economic pressures on families are located 45 percent of the population cannot read or write, and in regions and states that have been most affected only 16 percent have completed primary school. About by conflict. In these cases, the proportions of children one quarter of primary-age children attend primary forced out of school reached over 25 percent and in the school in the country, according to the last full survey on most extreme cases were above 42 percent (Sool). 134 U  NHCR. 2017. Displacements Dashboard, Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), Internal Displacements during September 2017. 135 Drop-out data gathered for Puntland and Somaliland via education cluster mechanisms and education ministry personnel during early 2017; data for  Central South Somalia gathered by MOECHE officials in coordination with state and regional education offices and local education cluster partners across Central South Somalia, as contained in FGS Education Sector Analysis 2012-2016 (draft, September, 2017). 136 UNICEF. 2017. Somalia Education Baseline Survey 2017.  Summary of Sector Assessments | 101 Of the nearly 80,000 children forced out of education by and accelerated learning opportunities. For Somalia as May 2017, most were found in southern Somalia, with a whole, the total proportion of children forced out of over 38,000 children reported being out-of-school, while school reached an estimated 8 percent by May 2017 of in Somaliland and Puntland the numbers reached slightly all children enrolled in education.138 It is, of course, worth over 12,000 and 16,000 respectively, with more than cautioning that figures reported by Government and 12,000 children out-of-school in the contested regions cluster partners could understate the actual figures of between Puntland and Somaliland.137 Overall, Puntland drop-outs as data provided has typically been for schools was most affected, with over 10.2 percent of children that have closed and in many instances did not capture out-of-school, followed by southern with 8.3 percent children who have dropped out of schools that remained and then Somaliland with only 3.3 percent of children open. Moreover, emergency forecasts for the remainder forced out of school. Some of the out-of-school children of 2017 expected worsening humanitarian conditions were vulnerable to recruitment and use by armed forces and deepening impacts on communities, including and groups. Once they escape armed groups or are education, meaning that the number of children being released from armed forces/groups, they are need of forced out of education would likely increase for the reintegration programs including vocational training remainder of the year. 137  NICEF. 2017. Somalia Education Baseline Survey 2017. U 138 Ibid.  102 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment gender equity in Somalia. There is a need to engender the response and recovery plan to ensure that gender issues are addressed. The needs for displaced girls will vary considerably to the needs of boys, especially taking into consideration the high prevalence of gender-based violence (GBV) affecting girls and women in IDP settings. Serious protection concerns persist in Somalia, putting displaced civilians and especially children of school- going age at risk. Abuses, including wide-spread GBV, recruitment of children, physical attacks, and forced displacement remain a pervasive feature of conflict and displacement in Somalia. Education enrollment is low among nomadic and pastoralist communities. UNFPA PESS survey data from 2015 suggests that educational inequities experienced by these groups remain deeply entrenched and are perhaps the highest for any group in the country. Only 15.7 percent of nomadic and pastoralist communities aged 6 and above are enrolled in education–or less than half of the national average. GER rates signal even Most displaced families will not be able to make fee greater levels of inequity experienced by pastoralist and payments to the vast majority of private run schools. nomadic children, with only a 3.1 percent GER for primary Having lost most of their livestock, many displaced level compared to a national average of 32 percent. families will require some form of social protection if they are to continue meeting their daily needs, let alone Recovery activities will focus on the following: finance the education of their children. Schools too may strengthening Government-led coordination need to roll out-of-school feeding programs to enhance mechanisms, building capacities to sustain education learning capacities of children.139 services while at the same time supporting learners and groups at greatest risk. Pro-poor approaches 43 percent of children enrolled in primary schools are that strengthen community engagement and direct girls, while 56 percent enrolled are boys.140 Gender community support will facilitate the reduction of school disparities in school enrollment and attainment are drop-outs. The development of planned classrooms linked to social norms that favor boys’ education, as and improved durable “Semi-Permanent Learning well as to the lack of separate sanitation facilities for Structures” and other education infrastructure will girls and the lack of female teachers.141 Gender barriers take into consideration environmental sensitivity and also include limited or unavailable operational primary sustainability. Developments (e.g., learning spaces) and secondary facilities, prohibitive school fees, and towards the recovery plan will be risk-informed and take household demands. Girls in particular are less likely to into consideration risk reduction measures. Teacher attend school due to domestic responsibilities, especially training and development of learning materials will be in female-headed households in which mothers pursue based on the approved national curriculum framework. economic opportunities and require additional support FGS will prioritize education sector management in the home. and regulation by implementing responsive policies and acts. In an already difficult environment for girls, currently enrolled girls should be supported to complete their education if they are to count towards improving 139  ousse, F. 2015. The Complexity of Sexual and Gender-Based Violence: Insights from Mogadishu and Central South Somalia. M CISP, International Alert. Federal Government of Somalia. 2017. Education Sector Analysis 2018-2020. 140  UNICEF. 2017. Somalia Education Baseline Survey 2017. 141  Summary of Sector Assessments | 103 Box 8: Displaced Children Get a Chance at Education The prolonged drought in Somalia has led to difficult decisions for families – whether to stay on their barren land and try to survive, to uproot everyone, or to divide the family. Seven-year-old Anab’s mother died when she was little, and her father has been unable to support all five children in their village in Lower Shabelle during the current crisis. So Anab and her sister were sent to live with their aunt in a makeshift settlement on the outskirts of Mogadishu, known as Kilometre 13, where her father hoped they would receive assistance. Anab’s aunt, Halima, who does casual work, now looks after Anab, her six-year-old sister and four of her own children. Anab, her sister, and two of her cousins go to Al-Hiddaya school, run by the local NGO Somali Community Concern, where 250 children who have been affected by the drought are getting an education as well as free meals to help them concentrate. Miss Ikram, a teacher at Al-Hiddaya school, said that when she arrived, Anab was pale, weak and lethargic. Now the little girl has grown stronger and is full of enthusiasm and keen to continue her education. Anab, a soft-spoken girl who had never been to school before, say she wants to be a teacher. Support from the Canadian Government has helped over 6,500 drought-impacted children access basic education, school meals and water and sanitation facilities, including safe drinking water, in 21 new schools along the Afgoye corridor outside Mogadishu. Source: UNICEF Somalia Table 19: Education Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Learning spaces Regional X 19,200,000 Teachers Regional X X 12,885,600 Learning materials/kits Regional X X X 4,343,871 CEC structures to be supported Regional X X X 2,880,000 Education sector coordination Regional X X X 4,320,000 support and data tracking costs Total Education Needs 43,629,471 104 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Cross-cutting Themes Food Security The protracted drought crisis in Somalia has been exacerbated by widespread conflict and poverty. In recent years, frequent crop production failures in crop dependent areas and severe shortage of pasture and water in pastoral areas followed by substantial livestock losses have disrupted livelihoods and have contributed to further population displacement. The average pre-drought (2015)142 number of people in acute food security Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 & 4) was 983,000. Food security is a cross-cutting sector that reflects the combined effects of drought on food security- related sectors such as agriculture (crop production, access to agricultural employment), livestock (livestock production and reproduction), and trade and market prices (food and livestock prices and purchasing power of the population). Table 20: Impact of Drought on Number of People Requiring Urgent Food Security Assistance Region Population Baseline Current Drought Drought Impact on # of (2015) (2016-2017) Impact IPC 3&4 IPC 3&4 IPC 3&4 IPC 3&4 As percent As percent of Regional of Total Population IPC 3&4 Awdal 673,264 69,209 102,061 32,851 5 2 Woqooyi Galbeed 1,242,003 101,836 121,547 19,712 2 1 Togdheer 721,364 35,074 127,915 92,841 13 6 Sool 327,427 13,532 90,871 77,340 24 5 Sanaag 544,123 39,665 141,719 102,054 19 6 Bari 730,148 85,596 141,668 56,072 8 3 Nugaal 392,697 13,049 95,569 82,520 21 5 Mudug 717,863 44,139 231,715 187,576 26 12 Galgaduud 569,434 38,502 159,204 120,703 21 7 Hiraan 520,684 30,226 198,696 168,470 32 10 Middle Shabelle 516,035 8,033 56,756 48,723 9 3 Lower Shabelle 1,202,222 25,083 151,754 126,671 11 8 Benadir 1,650,228 379,086 359,194 -19,892 -1 -1 Bay 792,182 19,977 262,231 242,254 31 15 Bakool 367,227 26,716 141,087 114,371 31 7 Gedo 508,403 9,950 73,088 63,137 12 4 Middle Juba 362,922 9,591 56,134 46,543 13 3 Lower Juba 489,307 33,542 82,266 48,724 10 3 Total 12,327,533 982,806 2,593,475 1,610,669 13 100 142  new estimate for the total population of Somalia (12.3 million) became available following dissemination of the final report of the Somalia A Population Estimation Sample Survey (PESS) in October 2014. The new population estimates were used as a basis for food security assessments starting in 2015. Prior to 2015, food security assessments were based on a total Somalia population figure of 7.5 million, which was estimated by UNDP in 2005.Therefore, the average for 2015 was used as a baseline instead of the average for 2013-2015. Summary of Sector Assessments | 105 © IOM Endemic to Somalia in recent decades due to a to be scaled up for the remainder of 2017-2018 to confluence of natural disasters and insecurity, food prevent a deterioration of food security and livelihoods security has significantly worsened during the 2016-17 conditions. Although famine (IPC Phase 5) has been drought. Following three consecutive seasons of below averted, the elevated risk of famine still looms as a average rains and predictions of a fourth, the food crisis result of severe food consumption gaps, high acute has worsened in rural areas. This has led to near-total crop malnutrition, elevated disease burden and dependence failures and reduced rural employment opportunities, on humanitarian assistance.147 Food insecurity and widespread shortage of water and pasture, with the resulting humanitarian needs are projected to consequent increases in livestock deaths and rapidly deteriorate through May 2018.148 diminishing food access among poor households as staple food prices continue to rise sharply and livestock In Somalia, there is a strong association between food prices decrease significantly. In the southern part of insecurity and poverty. Addressing the very high and Somalia, which is the major crop producing part of the widespread poverty and unemployment in Somalia will country, the 2016 Gu cereal production was estimated also contribute to sustainable improvement in the food at 65,000 tonnes.143 This is 49 percent below the long- security of its population. The following short-, medium- term average (1995-2015) and 20 percent below the and long-term recovery and resilience needs have five-year average for 2011-2015.144 Rising food prices been identified to address persistent and high levels are also affecting food access among displaced and of acute food insecurity in Somalia. Short- to medium- poor urban households. There has also been substantial term interventions will focus on improved household drought-related distress migration. Acute malnutrition food storage to reduce food waste and improved food remains high and widespread across Somalia (Table 20). security early warning systems. Medium- to long-term As a result, as many as 6.7 million people have been interventions will support development of a national faced with acute food insecurity across Somalia since food security strategy and policy and a national poverty January 2017.145 reduction and resilience strategy. It is also noted that the prioritization of road investments as detailed in the Continuing gaps in assistance to populations in stressed transport sector will take into consideration the potential IPC Phase 2 could lead to further deterioration of food for direct positive impact on humanitarian response, security, forcing some households to adopt “irreversible” either reducing logistics overheads or extending coping strategies.146 Humanitarian assistance will need assistance and markets to secondary towns. 143 F  SNAU and FEWSNET. 2016. Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Analysis: Post Gu 2016. Technical Series Report No. VII.69. 144 Ibid. 145 FSNAU and FEWSNET. 2017. Special Brief – Focus on Post Gu 2017: Assessment Results: September 2017.  146  Ibid. 147 FSNAU and FEWSNET.2017. Somalia Food Security Outlook – October 2017 to May 2018. 148 Ibid. 106 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Table 21: Food Security Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Improved food storage to National X X 20,000,000 reduce waste Improved food security early National X 5,000,000 warning systems Support for the development of National X X X 120,000 a national food security strategy Support for the development of a National X X X 240,000 national poverty reduction strategy Total Food Security Needs 25,360,000 149 FSNAU and FEWSNET.2017. Somalia Food Security Outlook – October 2017 to May 2018.  Summary of Sector Assessments | 107 Livelihoods and Employment are changing the nature of future employment, from a rural-based pastoralist one to an urbanized one. The labor market is characterized by an overdependence Those migrating often have low education levels and on the livestock sector, which provides employment are poorly equipped to take advantage of available to approximately 60 percent of the workforce. The employment opportunities, including those provided informal sector accounts for the remaining 40 percent through activities associated with the flow of aid such as of labor opportunities. Rates of under-employment and construction, logistics and services. unemployment are high. Even for those employed, there is a significant rate of under-employment (19 percent), There are four important cross cutting areas. First and this combined with an open unemployment rate of is the proportion of women affected by the drought, 22 percent implies that almost half of the work force are and related to their role in domestic trade of livestock either unemployed or work in low paying jobs.150 products (meat, milk, hides and skins), and petty trade (kiosks). The second is the challenge of employment Youth unemployment is a growing concern, with 48 of youths, and the need for skills training. The third is percent of youth either unemployed or projected to be the need for a Government-led social protection policy in low productive, low paying employment.151 This leaves geared towards cash for work and cash transfer, and the them particularly vulnerable to recruitment by non-state fourth is the need to build on successful examples in armed groups. Somaliland and Puntland of rehabilitation works aimed at reforestation, improvement of water harvesting, and Skill sets are low, stemming from the more than 57 erosion control. percent of Somalia’s children who are not in formal schooling. Only 3 percent of males and 2 percent of Whilst livelihoods will continue to be the most females in urban areas have had any form of formal important productive sector for the foreseeable future, vocational training, and linkages between training and the long-term dependence on livestock (particularly the labor market are weak.152 live exports) must be reduced, and efforts focused towards other sectors. Livelihoods interventions should The drought has exacerbated challenges for employment take into account the changing economic model in and livelihoods. Over 900,000 livestock dependent Somalia and align with the demographic shifts in urban households (pastoralists and agropastoralists) are and rural areas. The transitions in the rural economy affected (Table 22), with an estimated USD 875 million of towards a modernized agricultural sector will require direct income lost in the livestock sector alone. Impacts increased skills in industries along the value chain as are particularly significant on women who predominate well as water shed management. Sectors in the urban in livestock dependent chains, with an estimated loss areas such as construction and logistics could potentially across 4,500 micro enterprises/kiosks of USD 26 million. provide livelihoods opportunities; therefore, training and skills training in this sector should be linked to Beyond the economic losses, accelerated rates of infrastructure investment activities. Other sectors that urbanization associated with drought and conflict Table 22: Estimated Direct Losses in the Livestock Sector153 Household Type Pastoralists Agropastoralists Number of livelihoods affected 487,591 479,832 Total income losses of milk sales and animal sales based on present USD 609,495,380 USD 262,376,953 and income losses on sales. Using Standard offtake rates. Estimated workdays lost based on USD 3 per day Indicates future USD 203,165,127 USD 87,458,984 losses from decreased assets that generate jobs. Number of jobs/livelihoods lost, extrapolated from FSNAU reports 450,000 350,000 150  he data has been extracted from a Somali Labor Force Survey carried out in 2014, a Labor Force Survey of Somaliland 2012 and T various reports and articles. 151 UN Definition of youth: those between ages 15 -24. Estimated at 26 percent of population, according to UNFPA PESS.  152 Somali Labor Force Survey 2014.  153 Drawn from livestock losses and FSNAU/FEWSNET assessments.  108 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment have the potential to contribute to a diversification of firstly, targeting businesses in specific sectors critical for the economy include coastal fishing and social sectors, recovery and humanitarian aid delivery (such as logistics building on the investments in social sectors that and construction) and that can provide livelihoods come through humanitarian interventions and building and employment in the near term, and secondly, on this foundation to work towards a more skilled by supporting the financial sector to diversify and local workforce. provide financial products to small- and medium-sized businesses. The latter will depend on a minimum level As part of this, the employment and livelihoods recovery of regulation and policy and the ability of the CBS to strategy targets support to women and youth, with engage with the financial sector. measures recommended in terms of education, skills development, labor market information services (LMIS), Charcoal production and the rehabilitation and and entrepreneurship and finance. Innovative approaches management of rangeland must be addressed if any could link immediate temporary employment, with degree of sustainability is to be built into the recovery access to literacy and numeracy training, business of the livestock sector. Efforts must be made to develop development, and job placements. Support should be the renewable energy sector as this has the potential to provided to women enterprises by supporting women reduce environmental degradation, involve women and entrepreneurs across all sectors, including livestock, youth, and to provide power sources to sectors, which to organize themselves into associations, cooperatives are currently under-developed due to energy deficit and/ and networks. or high costs. Lastly, support to Government institutions to improve and/or establish labor market information Lastly, increasing access to finance will be key to services and support to FGS and FMS to coordinate the developing more sustainable jobs, including financial Livelihoods and Employment sector will be required. support to small- and medium-sized businesses to develop. This should be done in two parallel tracks, Table 23: Livelihoods and Employment Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Support to women and youth to National X X X 20,000,000 engage in key economic sectors Support to Govt. Institutions to National X X X 1,900,000 improve and/or establish Labor Market Information Services Support to FGS and Federal State National X X X 200,000 Governments to coordinate the E&L sector Total Livelihoods and Employment Needs 22,100,000 Summary of Sector Assessments | 109 © UNDP Somalia/Dreamcatcher Social Protection and Safety Nets The impact of the drought, in particular on livelihoods and rising prices of staple foods, has led to negative In the absence of reliable and long-term Government- coping strategies in the absence of shock responsive led support to the vulnerable in Somalia, social social protection. Families have instead been forced protection as a sector does not exist formally. The bulk to resort to strategies such as reduction of food of it is relief assistance, which is project based, donor consumption and food diversity, buying food on credit, funding dependent and delivered mostly through the selling their livestock and other productive assets, and UN and international humanitarian NGOs reliant on migrating to urban parts of the country. These losses unpredictable financing. During the current drought, are captured in the relevant sections (Food Security, most of this assistance was in the form of cash transfers Nutrition, Agriculture-Livestock, Agriculture-Irrigation through voucher cards and mobile phones. Shock- and Rain-fed Crops, Displacement). responsive safety nets have been delivered through a protracted humanitarian response, with smaller scale The biggest impact is reflected in the extent and nature conditional transfers designed to build access to basic of vulnerability, both economic (being in or at risk of services. Informal social safety nets also play an important poverty) and social (lack of autonomy, discrimination role. However, the absence of reliable response beyond and marginalization).154 Compounding shocks occurring the humanitarian phase with a clear national operating before households have had the ability to recover institution for social protection limits gains that can be further erodes their coping capacity to manage them, made beyond short-term assistance. and further increases this vulnerability. Significant 154 UNICEF. 2014. Designing Social Protection Frameworks for Three Zones of Somalia.  110 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment segments of the Somali population are economically of protection and less efficient use of funds. There is and/or socially vulnerable to shocks such as the current also a lack of institutions to promote accountability for drought. Regions where populations are most vulnerable violations against civilians and enforcement of existing or where IPC Phases 3 and 4 is above 40 percent laws in the country. While responding to effects of include Sanaag and Sool in the north; South Mudug drought and conflict, there is need to strengthen and Galgaduud in central Somalia; and Hiraan, Bay and policies and legal frameworks that promote and Bakool in the south. Urban areas that have experienced respond to human rights violations at different levels, as a sharp increase in IDP populations include Mogadishu, indicated in the NDP. There is a need to strengthen child Baidoa, Dhusamareb, Garowe, Berbera, Bossaso, Dolow protection systems to increase the Government’s role in and Hargeisa. preventing and responding to violence and the abuse and exploitation of children, both during humanitarian However, the current drought response has situations and in more or less stable contexts. demonstrated the ability of current protection systems to expand to more remote areas using refined targeting The fluid movement of people between rural and and improved systems for vetting and monitoring.155 urban areas is an important factor for consideration, The current response to the ongoing drought therefore and any long-term solution needs to take into account provides many elements that can form the basis of a more the mobility of the population, particularly in response coherent, sustainable and predictable social safety nets to crises. However, Somalia’s almost 75 percent mobile system. Cash assistance has been used in humanitarian phone coverage and prevalence of mobile network response in Somalia since 2003. During the 2017 drought operators have made it possible to deliver cash transfers response, the use of cash as a modality has significantly through mobile phones. This development has changed scaled up, reaching up to three million individuals each the landscape of safety nets delivery in Somalia. The month. Somalia has some unique characteristics which reliance of technology for cash transfer, however, could make cash-based interventions particularly appropriate. mean that older people are at risk of being excluded, First, Somalia is dependent on food imports to meet its as are populations in remote areas with limited access food needs and as such has developed extensive and to technology. And the lack of trained social workers in robust markets to address demand even in the face the country means that the methods of targeting and of local production shortages. Moreover, on-going supporting vulnerable groups will remain challenging. conflict continues to constrain access in many parts of the country, limiting road transport and the reach of The proposed recovery strategy for the social traditional in-kind assistance. Finally, relatively quick protection sector recognizes the ongoing crisis and to operationalize, cash assistance has not only played the need to sustain support to the 6.2 million people important life-saving and livelihood preserving roles, but still in need of assistance. The 2018 HRP describes the has also helped to stimulate markets during time times support through social safety nets that will need to be of crisis. Some innovative cash approaches have also sustained throughout the year. The social protection been introduced as a response to the drought, such as strategy in this DINA does not, therefore, reflect these Cash+, combining cash transfers with productive inputs ongoing needs as part of the recovery and resilience (seeds), thus enhancing the livelihoods and productive costs for the sector. capacities of poor and vulnerable households. The strategy seeks instead to i) bring greater coherence Social protection does not exist as a formal sector, to existing channels and increase efficiency by increasing largely due to the absence of a legitimate and formal Government leadership in the sector and ii) develop state for over 25 years. There is therefore a lack of and pilot systems, policies and processes that can serve capacity at all levels of Government to formulate as a basis for a sustainable social safety nets program policy, lead dialogue and coordinate activities or actors that can respond to crises. This would build on existing engaged in social protection activities. In the immediate successful cash transfer programs, leverage technology- term, there is a lack of policy frameworks and leadership based solutions, and integrate the ongoing efforts to leading to a lack of coherence across the current systems develop an ID system for Somalia. 155 UNOCHA and HCT. 2017. Somalia Humanitarian Response Plan: January – December 2018  Summary of Sector Assessments | 111 In the short term, this strategy proposes to inject With this capacity, policy, knowledge and system capacity into the Ministries of Humanitarian Affairs design in place, it will be possible to pilot a model and Disaster Management (MoHADM), the Ministry for a sustainable social safety net program, led by of Planning, Investment and Economic Development Government, and implemented by appropriate partners (MoPIED) and the Ministry of Women and Human under a coherent and harmonized framework. The social Rights Development (MoWHRD) to develop policy and protection systems will aim to be risk-informed and harmonize approaches among existing actors. Capacity shock-responsive, able to scale levels and coverage is also needed at state and district level to start engaging of assistance up and down according to the variable sub-national government actors in monitoring, vetting level of risk and exposure of vulnerable populations to and targeting activities. The Government will lead efforts shocks. Such a model would also look at working with to develop social protection policy and management local financial sector institutions to pilot household-level frameworks (including management and implementation insurance products linked to cash transfers. arrangements) and will lead research and analysis for the development of targeting and registration systems, building on the lessons of current successful programs. Table 24: Social Protection and Safety Nets Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Injection of minimum capacity in National/State X X 168,000 MoHADM and MoPIED Social Protection policy National X 1,515,000 and framework, vulnerability analysis, capacity development of Government, communication strategy Database inventory and analysis National X 100,000 Design of pilot incl. registry, targeting National X 5,000,000 methodology, transfer systems, monitoring systems, grievance mechanism, vetting Pilot of system in select geographic National/Regional X 6,400,000 areas (incl. urban and rural) targeting 100,000 Total Social Protection and Safety Nets Needs 13,183,000 112 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia Gender Access to education remains a key gender concern with illiteracy rates for women and men of 76 and 60 In Somalia, women are disadvantaged compared to percent, respectively, in IDP communities, and 59 and men on all socio-economic and human development 39 percent, respectively, in host communities.160 Women indicators. With a Gender Inequality Index of 0.776, the are also less likely to complete secondary education. country ranks fourth lowest globally. Social norms and This has lifelong consequences. Social norms lock girls power structures impact the lives and opportunities and women into unequal power relationships, leaving available to different groups of men and women.156 many of them with little control over decisions that affect Addressing gender inequalities is critical to maximize their lives, be it at household, community or national impact and socioeconomic development to build level. Their social, economic and political participation resilience and sustainable peace. is limited despite their care work, their contribution to the household economy and their historic role in Somali Health and nutrition indicators are among the worst in society as community mobilizers and peace-builders. the world with a life expectancy in 2016 of 57 years for Labor opportunities are limited but characterized by a women and 54 years for men.157 The maternal mortality large gender gap, with labor force participation in 2015 rate is estimated at 732 per 100,000 life births,158 with one amongst men of 76 percent versus 33 percent amongst in 12 women dying due to pregnancy-related causes.159 women.161 As land and family assets are controlled by Somali children and their mothers continue to suffer husbands or male relatives, with limitations on women’s from multiple nutritional deprivations, which deny them inheritance rights as well as limited access to skill training the opportunity to thrive and reach their full and markets, widows and female-headed households developmental potential. are particularly vulnerable. Lack of education further disempowers women. 156 U  NDP. 2012. Human Development Report: 2012. 157 http://datatopics.worldbank.org/gender/country/somalia.  158 WHO. 2015. Trends in Maternal Mortality: 1990 to 2015.  159 UNICEF. 2016. Situation Analysis of Children in Somalia 2016. 160 UNHCR.2016. Internal Displacement Profiling in Mogadishu.  161 Based on World Bank data.  Summary of Sector Assessments | 113 © UNSOM The physical and psychological integrity of women the need to adopt an income earning role (despite and girls is not ensured. Early marriage is pervasive cultural barriers, reduced opportunities and limited time throughout the country, with 45 percent of women aged available) have resulted in increased work burden for 20 to 24 married before the age of 18.162 This limits women and drop-out rates for girls. Internally displaced their educational and earning potential. Gender-based because of the drought, women experience cultural violence is a prevalent challenge throughout Somalia, intolerance and often become dependent on charity driven notably by pervasive social norms, insecurity, or humanitarian assistance, which severely heightens poverty and displacement. Gender inequalities are their marginalization and vulnerabilities. At the same further exacerbated by the displacement situation; time, this separation has created opportunities for some displaced populations confront a range of severe women to be economically empowered. protection challenges and lack access to basic services. The drought has also put the women and children at The drought has exacerbated the vulnerabilities and higher risk of malnutrition and poor health as they social marginalization of women. Prolonged exposure to traditionally eat after men and because of the huge the drought has extended traditional coping strategies, migration of livestock left them with limited access to such as migration and family separation, contributing protein-rich food. In addition, women’s risk to contract to school drop-outs of boys and girls and necessitating illnesses is particularly high due to their care function for women to bear disproportionate responsibilities. The the sick, children and elderly while their access to basic combination of increased traveling distances in search health services remains particularly limited. of water and firewood, additional unpaid care work in the face of increased drought-related diseases and 162 Federal Government of Somalia. Somalia National Development Plan (2017-2019).  114 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment The drought has exacerbated the security situation of As a cross-cutting issue, gender needs to be streamlined women and girls. Being excluded from asset ownership across all the sectors included in the DINA recovery or having to operate through a patriarchal filter, the strategy. This requires a better understanding of the social support systems for women are compromised by different barriers faced by men, women, boys and girls conflict, regular exposure to disasters, and instability. in accessing services, economic resources and political During the drought, vulnerable people—notably opportunities but also to leverage their contribution to women, children, minorities, the disabled, child- and the recovery. The collection and use of sex- and age- female-headed households—are exposed to protection disaggregated data and the strengthening of gender- risks such as forced evictions, discrimination based on responsive governance in the short, medium and long status and family separations due to lack of support term will facilitate the design and implementation of structures and ungoverned settlements and hence have gender-sensitive policies and interventions. Specific limited access to protective shelter. As women and girls support to facilitate women’s voice to be heard and travel longer distances without protection to find water, to promote women’s participation and leadership is food, livelihoods and other resources, particularly for required. National- and district-level gender profiles IDPs traveling outside formal or informal settlement need to be developed to inform programming. areas, they are more exposed to GBV. The drought Furthermore, noting the disproportionate risk exposure has induced massive displacement, with the majority of women and girls, targeted action addressing their of IDPs women and children. Gender inequalities are specific needs is needed. Finally, a gender-balanced therefore aggravated. It is worth noting as well that the representation in recovery and resilience planning will loss of assets combined with lack of access to education, be important. Other priority needs are treated in the skills training and livelihood opportunities leave men respective sectors and cross-cutting sectors; however and boys unable to fulfill their duties of protectors and during the Recovery and Resilience Framework, a providers, making them further vulnerable due to their proper mechanism will need to be established to identity crisis, manifesting in a range of often negative track progress. coping mechanisms. Table 25: Gender Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Implementation of sex-, age- National X X X 4,300,000 disaggregated data (SADD) and gender analysis tools Gender-responsive governance National X X X 4,400,000 and promote women’s participation and leadership Promote gender equality in disaster National X X X 3,500,000 risk reduction Women sustainable economic National X X X 28,500,000 and livelihoods development Gender-based Violence (GBV) National X X X 3,500,000 targeted responses Total Gender Needs 44,200,000 Summary of Sector Assessments | 115 Urban Development and Municipal Services conflict and protracted displacement. The large and rising influx of drought-related displaced people in Somalia has experienced rapid urbanization due to Somalia’s urban areas puts additional stress on the significant migrations caused by protracted conflicts, already strained key sectors, particularly land, housing, insecurity, and cyclical natural disasters. As of health, education, water supply and sanitation, protection September 2017, there were an estimated 2.1 million and jobs. Population displacement during drought or protracted internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Somalia, conflict is often associated with loss of ID documents and most of whom reside in urban areas.163 The country is birth certificates. also witnessing increasing number of returnees and refugees from neighboring countries. IDPs have settled on public and private lands within and in the outskirts of cities, exacerbating the pressure on The 2016-2017 drought has displaced an estimated already scarce land (Figures 41, 42a and 42b). The ad hoc 926,000 people between November 2016 and IDP settlements have exacerbated the urban sprawl in September 2017.164 The majority of the new the cities, compounding pressure on land and service displacements have occurred in regions such as Mudug, delivery. In the absence of security of land tenure, IDPs Bay and Benadir. Many of the drought-displaced people are highly vulnerable to forced eviction. Most of the are hosted in settlements (Figure 40) in Mogadishu drought-induced IDPs currently reside on Government (161,000 people), Baidoa (174,000 people)165 and Kismayo or private land and do not have the authorization to build (42,000 people).166 These three cities alone host almost more permanent types of shelter. Recent assessments in 40 percent of the total drought-related displacements.167 the three cities have found that over 70 percent of the Drought-related displacement is occurring against the surveyed IDPs reside in Buuls,168 a traditional shelter backdrop of ongoing conditions of poverty, vulnerability, made of sticks and covered in plastic sheeting or rags. 163  NOCHA. 2017. Humanitarian Needs Overview: Nov. 2017. U 164  UNHCR. 2017. Displacements Dashboard, Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), Internal Displacements During September 2017. 165 Ibid.  166 Ipsos, 2017. 167 Secondary cities are not in the focus of longer term development investments and support, but are mostly served by humanitarian  agencies and charities. 168 REACH. 2016. Baidoa Assessment. 116 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Cities have not been able to keep pace with the large influx of IDPs, so provision of basic infrastructure and services is severely constrained. Urban sprawl exacerbated by new IDP settlements and compounded by lack of proper maintenance has resulted in congestion of vital regional roads. There is a significant need to construct or upgrade existing roads. The drought has made water supply precarious, and with increasing numbers of people moving into urban areas, the situation is worsening. Uncontrolled and informal exploitation of aquifers threaten sustainability, safety and access to water supplies in the city. The steady development of constructed areas that have not been properly planned is a significant risk for environmental degradation. Health facilities in urban areas have seen a surge of patient loads and are having difficulties in dealing with the growing demand. Furthering the burden on health facilities is the sharp rise in communicable diseases such as acute watery diarrhea (AWD)/cholera and the (re-) emergence of infections like measles. The majority of IDP children are out of school due to lack of access to schools and financial capacity. Solid waste management is being neglected. With the influx of additional labor supply, competition over jobs, particularly low-skilled jobs in construction, trade and service sectors, is likely to intensify in the long-term, causing potential social tension where the unemployment rate is as high as 40 percent. Summary of Sector Assessments | 117 Yet the government has limited capacity and resources in the HRP to support a quicker transition to durable to address the challenges. In the absence of public shelter solutions for IDPs. This will include addressing sector in the service provision, private sector led some of the underlying structural deficiencies that service delivery models have emerged. While private perpetuate and compound the challenge of providing service providers fill in an important void, overreliance durable solutions, such as secure land tenure, improved on private service delivery hinders the network urban planning to better link IDP settlements to services approach to service delivery and results in fragmented and better coordination of services to benefit different service provision. population groups, and skills training (in construction, trade, and services) and placement support as well as Cities must provide safety, respond to a large population enterprise development assistance to IDPs. Access to influx and continue service delivery. Yet, current basic services should be improved by strengthening unplanned and unregulated city expansion has led local government’s capacity to plan and coordinate, to arbitrary distribution of land and has aggravated particularly at the municipal and district level. This contestation over land. Intense competition over land would result in more effective and better-coordinated exacerbates forced evictions, particularly among IDPs. service delivery among different actors involved as well In the absence of secure land tenure, IDPs and other as linking provision of emergency services to long-term urban poor have no choice but to rely on a system planning. Support to strengthen the capacity of the sub- of “gatekeepers.” Informal social networks play an national government needs to take place so that they important role in providing protection, services, and can fulfill their responsibility and be in the driver’s seat. employment opportunities. But dependence on social network affiliations plays to the disadvantage of In the long-term (beyond three years), support should those from minority groups and female-headed IDPs. focus on four key areas: regulating service delivery; Moreover, physical safety, particularly that of women streamlining intergovernmental relations; improving and children, remains one of the most prominent risks in municipal and district urban planning capacities and urban centers. These critical issues need to be addressed approaches; and strengthening institutions related in the short term to alleviate the immediate stresses of to land and housing. With almost 20 percent of the rapid population movement to cities. Somali population affected by displacement – of which 6.2 percent are drought-related – sustainable recovery, In the short term (within the next year), provision of peace and development in Somalia can only be ensured temporary shelter to the high and increasing number with the integration of the displaced populations as of IDP is urgently needed until their situation stabilizes an integral part of the urban development strategy. A and they ultimately decide whether they would like phased approach that takes into account the continued to settle down in the urban areas or return to their need for non-state actors for service delivery but places of origin. This requires the government to recognizes the long-term goal of a functioning Somali provide adequate public land so that IDPs can stay for state that provides for the welfare of its people is an extended period without fear of eviction. required. Use of government systems, especially those of municipal governments, is recommended from the In the medium term, the assistance should have a outset, recognizing that in the preliminary stages the broader focus to improve urban resilience by investing in Government systems will be limited to coordination and the most affected sectors such as housing, water supply policy development functions. and sanitation, health, education, protection, as well as job creation in cities that have experienced and are likely to experience a large influx of IDPs. The recovery and resilience activities will focus on complementing activities 118 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNSOM Table 26: Urban Development and Municipal Services Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Temporary shelters Regional X X 33,000,750 Permanent shelters Regional X X 61,018,100 Primary school construction Regional X X 4,787,980 Latrines Regional X X 1,443,100 School vouchers Regional X 22,869,411 Operating costs Regional X X 7,222,000 Mobile clinics Regional X 1,335,104 AWD/cholera treatment Regional X 480,000 Water trucks Regional X 2,855,230 Boreholes Regional X X 1,665,108 Sanitation Regional X X 4,296,751 Skill training and placement Regional X X 147,800,160 Capacity building for municipal Regional X X 4,500,000 government Total Urban Development and Municipal Services Needs 293,273,694 Summary of Sector Assessments | 119 Governance Somalia remains heavily dependent on aid and remittances,170 which are driving its consumption- Protracted armed conflict and disasters including driven growth.171 In 2016, it received an estimated USD droughts, famines and floods have been major drivers 1.4 billion in remittances and USD 1.3 billion in official of fragility in Somalia over the past three decades. development assistance (ODA), of which approximately Government leadership has had to work under extreme half was comprised of humanitarian aid.172 In comparison, constraints, with a lack of qualified staff, lack of funds total aid in 2017 is expected to reach close to USD 2 and continued high levels of insecurity. Moreover, billion, driven by the surge of humanitarian support in al-Shabaab continues to control much of the rural response to the drought.173 area of southern and central Somalia that has been hardest hit by the drought and where humanitarian The drought has placed significant strain on already access is limited. stretched government resources. It has understandably diverted attention from long-term institutional Despite these challenges, the presence of the State has strengthening towards the provision of lifesaving been re-emerging in the context of a new three-tiered support. However, the impact on public services was federal system, which includes the Federal Government mitigated by the very limited role the Government plays of Somalia (FGS), Federal Member States (FMS) and in service delivery.174 Moreover, the Government has district level government. For the first time in over 30 persisted in implementing reforms and strengthening years, Somalia issued a new NDP, covering the period core capacity at federal, state and district level, with 2017–19, that underpins a focus on building sustainable, the support of the international community, albeit with efficient, effective, accountable and inclusive institutions. slower than expected results. The NDP includes a pillar for building effective and efficient institutions (Chapter VI) which lays out the Despite the ongoing drought, the Government strategy for improving the way the Government is succeeded in establishing the Ministry of Humanitarian organized and operates. Affairs and Disaster Management (MoHADM) in early 2017 to address the whole spectrum of crisis As the Government works to strengthen core functions prevention/disaster risk reduction, preparedness, and establish the foundations of its federalist system, response and recovery by facilitating horizontal and its ability to provide public services remains severely vertical coordination between stakeholders, by offering constrained. For example, education and health received necessary policy guidance, leadership, information only 2.5 percent of the federal budget (USD 6.2 million) sharing and by facilitating planning and implementation. in 2016, of which only 39 percent was disbursed.169 MoHADM is designed to operate through a network of Government capacity and resources for drought institutions at the federal, state and local levels; sub- response are even more limited, given that many of the national counterparts have yet to be further developed relevant structures have only recently been established and strengthened. Although initial efforts to respond or have yet to be formed. Revenue mobilization remains to drought were limited to coordination, this newly insufficient to meet demands; major expenditures established entity demonstrates significant potential to continue to be recurrent costs, notably salaries and increase the Government’s capacity to prepare for and running costs of the administration. respond to natural disasters.175 169  World Bank. 2017. Somalia Economic Update (SEU). 170 ODA and remittances, as a share of GDP, were estimated at 21 and 22 percent respectively in 2016 (before the surge in aid seen in 2017) –  Federal Government of Somalia. 2017. Aid Flows in Somalia: Analysis of Aid Flow Data. 171 World Bank. 2017. Somalia Economic Update (SEU).  172  Federal Government of Somalia. 2017. Aid Flows in Somalia: Analysis of Aid Flow Data. 173 Based on estimates derived from the OCHA FTS and preliminary data collected through the latest aid mapping exercise. Humanitarian aid  commitments totaled USD 1.2 billion as of November 2017. Development aid is expected to remain steady at approximately USD 700 million. 174 Due to the existing political gridlock between the center and the periphery, and sometimes within the center. This requires the completion of the  constitutional review, and establishing a constitutional court at the federal level. 175 UNOCHA. 2017.‘Somalia: Operational Plan for Famine Prevention - January-June 2017.  120 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Given the Government’s limited capacity and financial resources, its role in coordinating efforts supported by the international community is especially critical. In piloting the New Deal, Somalia made great strides towards focusing attention on priorities for peace- and state-building, fostering a country-owned and led approach to their transition from fragility, and improving aid effectiveness through a coherent, coordinated architecture. As part of the Somali Compact, the FGS and development partners established the Somalia Development and Reconstruction Facility (SDRF) as both a coordination framework and a financing architecture for implementing the Somali Compact, with the aim of enhancing the delivery of effective assistance to all Somalis. The SDRF also brings together three multi-partner trust funds under common governance arrangements administered by the United Nations (UN), the World Bank (WB) and the African Development Bank (AfDB). Following the conclusion of the Somali Compact, the aid architecture was revised for the next phase of Somalia’s development. Aligned with the NDP and Security Pact, the revised aid architecture brings the SDRF and the Comprehensive Approach to Security (CAS) under one overarching framework, the Somali Partnership Forum (SPF), which serves as the centerpiece for the partnership between the Government and international community. The aid architecture was not functional for much of 2017 due to delays associated with elections, the political transition, the diversion of attention towards drought response, and extended debates over the details of the revised structures. As such, the revised aid architecture is only now being revitalized. While this aid architecture is the centerpiece for partnership between Government and the international community, it will need to be strengthened to support an expedited recovery program. Furthermore, by addressing governance deficits at federal, state and district level, the recovery program will be addressing one of the structural drivers of fragility in the country. The recovery needs interventions for the Governance sector are detailed in Table 27. Table 27: Governance Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Expert Personnel (+/- 250 staff National X 41,000,000 for 24 months) Office equipment National X 2,200,000 Capacity building activities National X 3,200,000 specific to recovery and resilience Development of legislative National X 1,900,000 framework & related consultations Building leadership capacity National X 800,000 within the Somali Government on oversight and delivery against an accountability framework Establishing Database Center and National X 2,700,000 strengthening statistical capacity and information management Building recovery program National X 6,000,000 management capacity within Federal and State Min of Planning (2 years) Access to finance for social National X X X 560,000 entrepreneurs and innovators Total Governance Needs 58,360,000 Summary of Sector Assessments | 121 © UNSOM 122 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Conflict Somali culture recognizes the association between war and drought (col iyo abaar). The antithesis is captured Violent conflict is present in Somalia at several in a traditional saying, “nabad iyo caano” (“peace interrelated levels. First, conflict has at times been and milk”), recognizing the association of prosperity exacerbated by the involvement of Somalia’s neighbors with security. A 2014 study demonstrates the causal and broader regional and global interests. Second, civil relationship between extreme weather events and the war, which erupted in 1991 after the overthrow of the Barre incidence of civil conflict in Somalia. Between 1997 regime and resultant collapse of central government, and 2009, one standard deviation increase in drought pitted armed factions often recruited along lineage intensity and length is estimated as raising the likelihood lines. Third, violent jihadism was added to this scenario of conflict by 62 percent. The authors also find that in the form of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) from which the impact of drought on local conflict was mediated al-Shabaab subsequently arose. Fourth, local communal through livestock price shocks, which increased the conflicts, typically over natural resources such as land, incentives for conflict.178 pasture, water rights, or economic rents, may result in violence, often at the sub-clan level. Fifth, the incidence The drought in Somalia has exacerbated conflicts of criminal, interpersonal violence and gender-based over pasturelands and natural resources. “Conflict violence is high. The recruitment and use of children— or violence” was the most frequently cited of the and often their abduction by armed forces and groups— difficulties or shocks in the survey undertaken for this means the future of children as young as 10 years old is assessment in October 2017, with almost one in four jeopardized as a result of years of conflict. According the households having experienced conflict or violence UN Secretary General, the number of children recruited in the past month.179 The map below provides a in 2016 (1,915) doubled compared with 2015 as a result visual representation of the relationship between of increased attacks by al-Shabaab.176 drought and conflict. These levels are interrelated: local conflicts implicate Drought and conflict, both independently and in wider tensions, alliances and grievances at other levels, combination, cause displacement. The two are so drawing on a repertoire of injustices going back to the closely entwined as drivers of displacement that it is not colonial period, land grabbing under the Barre regime always possible or meaningful to distinguish between and the civil war. Together, these factors continue to them.180 Of the 1.1 million internally displaced from make Somalia the most conflict-affected country in November 2016 to September 2017, 171,000 were Africa in 2017, with 3,287 recorded fatalities and 1,537 classified as “conflict/security’ related, and 926,000 as violent events as at September 22nd.177 October’s “drought related.” “Conflict-driven” displacement was three bomb attacks in Mogadishu–including the more geographically focused, with 71 percent being October 14 attack that killed over 500–show that the displaced from just one of Somalia’s 18 regions, Lower threat remains significant. Shabelle (South West State). 176 UN.  2017. Children and Armed Conflict. Report of the Secretary General. P.20 http://undocs.org/A/72/361. 177 ACLED. 2017. Somalia: 2017 Update. Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Base. September 22, 2017.  178 Maystadt, Jean-Francois and Olivier Ecker. 2014. ‘Extreme Weather and Civil War in Somalia . ‘Does Drought Fuel Conflict through Livestock Price  Shocks?’ American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 179 World Bank and Ipsos. 2017. Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA).  180 Protection Cluster, 2017. Protection Risk Analysis 2017 (draft).  Summary of Sector Assessments | 123 development aid is unavoidably mediated through existing power structures. Intermediaries may limit the distribution of assistance to groups not allied to them or lacking in political capital, reinforcing the dependency of vulnerable groups on the politically better-placed and aggravating existing tensions, grievances and inequalities. Somalia’s security situation also has fiscal consequences relevant to the funding of drought response and development services. International partners spend some USD 1.5 billion a year on peacekeeping, counterinsurgency and support to the Somali security sector (much more if anti-piracy measures are included), while the FGS in 2014 and 2015 spent 45 percent and 33 percent of the national budget, respectively (USD 68 million and USD 44 million), on security. Numerous informal armed groups and militias also extort millions of dollars annually in predatory “taxes” on citizens.182 The drivers and impacts of conflict, as set out in the fuller text of this analysis (see Volume II), are complex and interconnected. They will need to be addressed through an integrated approach that brings together humanitarian, recovery and developmental approaches to address long-term poverty, marginalization and limited access to certain areas. In the design of drought response, resource allocation, needs assessment and selection criteria should all be evidence-based, transparent, and rooted in an understanding of the social and conflict context. Monitoring and evaluation should also address social and conflict issues, so that lessons can be learned about what works in particular circumstances. In the The conflict and security situation also exerts a very medium and long term, these considerations apply direct impact on drought response, as well as its to the development of policy frameworks (e.g., for effectiveness. Insecurity places severe restrictions on service delivery) as much as to specific responses. Such access by humanitarian aid and development assistance, knowledge is an indispensable foundation of action, as as well as on trade and freedom of movement. In the ill-considered intervention is not only wasteful but may first ten months of 2017, humanitarian organizations cause real harm. The fate of many earlier attempts to were subjected to 130 violent incidents, with 15 build institutions or implement programs in Somalia persons killed, 32 injured and 30 abducted.181 Security ought to be a sufficient lesson in this regard. challenges mean the distribution of humanitarian and 181  UNOCHA. 2017. Sarah Otuku. Personal Communication. 182 World Bank. 2017. Somalia Security and Justice Sector Public Expenditure Review.  124 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Two elements in particular will build resilience against status, especially among minorities and IDPs. Along both future drought and conflict. These are: first, restored with education, technical and vocational training, economic growth, employment and reduced inequality; credit and employment schemes will also have their and second, increased legitimacy of Government and place. These are addressed in more detail in other public institutions through transparency and improved sections of the report.186 performance. At household level, resilience will be built through investment aiming at increasing production and productivity, promotion of climate smart agriculture, Displacement diversifying income sources, provision of social safety Current drought conditions compound pronounced nets and basic social services, and strengthening of development deficits and humanitarian challenges positive coping strategies. in Somalia, including existing rates of acute and Disputes over land are a driver of conflict, as are past protracted displacement. Prior to the current drought, expropriations. Insecurity of land tenure is also a major over 1.1 million people were already internally factor impeding the capability of the urban poor and displaced, while fewer than one million Somali refugees displaced persons. Somalia’s NDP recognizes the need lived in neighboring countries. Forced displacement to develop national land and urban policies, specifically has occurred in Somalia due to more than 20 years of with a focus on climate change mitigation and natural internal conflict, insecurity, political uncertainty, human disaster planning. Stable and equitable policies are rights violations and governance failures. These factors needed for both development and the settling or are further compounded by cyclical environmental resettling of the displaced. The issues are very complex, challenges, including periods of acute drought and and Somalia’s partners should consider supporting a famine. Many communities have further experienced participatory deliberative process aimed at developing multiple displacements from the forcible acquisition of consensus on a way forward on land tenure and their land or forced evictions, particularly in urban areas, management.183 contributing to a loss of assets and livelihoods.187 In 2017, families in various states of Somalia, in particular The conflict analysis outlined here supports the priority Galmudug and Southwest State, were under pressure given in other sections of this assessment (including by al-Shabaab to provide children to the armed Urban Development and Displacement & Migration group. As a result, families made their children flee sections) to a focus on urban development to address al-Shabaab controlled areas to escape recruitment. urban poverty and marginalization, including that of the Overall, UNICEF and partners provided assistance to displaced. In addition to land policy, this would entail a 3,700 unaccompanied and separated children between focus on infrastructure, shelter, services and livelihoods, January and October 2017, and family reunification and the development of smaller urban centers.184 for some of the displaced children is a challenge Construction could itself be a major opportunity for due to insecurity.188 developing skills and employment opportunities. The inability to provide adequately for IDPs in Somalia Youth unemployment has been identified as a driver of has led to disparities and exclusion, which has only conflict. Support for establishing productive livelihoods further weakened community resilience and exacerbated would accordingly help to establish the conditions for vulnerabilities. IDPs are consistently more vulnerable and a more peaceful and stable Somalia. As recognized in have a lower standard of living than host communities the NDP,185 sustainable rural livelihoods require sound or economic migrants, though all face poverty and environmental and natural resources management deprivation. Nine out of ten people living in IDP camps policies along with rural services. The employability live in poverty, and the internally displaced account of urban youth is limited by their very low educational for more than two-thirds (68 percent) of those in crisis and emergency.189 183  See sections on Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resources, Livestock and Urban Development. 184 See Urban Development section.  185 Federal Government of Somalia. National Development Plan (2017-2019).  186 See Employment and Livelihoods section.  187 Protection Cluster, 2017. Protection Risk Analysis 2017 (draft). The profiling survey conducted in Mogadishu indicates, for example, that 46 percent of  IDPs in Mogadishu had moved multiple times before arriving at their current residence. 31 percent faced evection over the previous six months, and 37 percent feared eviction in the coming six months – Joint IDP Profiling Service (JIPS). 2016. Internal Displacement Profiling in Mogadishu. 188 UNICEF. 2017. Somalia Situation Report: November 2017.  189 Federal Government of Somalia. 2016. National Development Plan (2017-2019).  Summary of Sector Assessments | 125 Box 9: Homeless and Hungry: The Journey Continues Hawaya is a long way from home looking for any kind of assistance in Doolow, a border town along the Ethiopian border (Jubaland State). The pair had been traveling over four nights from their rural village, 120km away. Like most who end up in Doolow, she has lost virtually everything to the ongoing drought, including her husband and eldest son who both died just a week ago of starvation. Heartbroken, Hawaya set out with her daughter Nasibo to Doolow, where they heard that humanitarian agencies were providing assistance. Leaving nothing behind but a donkey cart, as even the donkey had died, they traveled over four nights to reach the town. At some points, the pair had to cross through known Al-Shabaab territory but had fortunately not encountered them. When asked if she had feared of encountering, them she replied that she was fearful of Al-Shabaab, but equally fearful of what could have happened to her child as a consequence of the drought if she had stayed. Homeless, hungry, and in desperate need of assistance, she gets emotional trying to describe the feelings that she is going through. “I cannot put words to what I feel about losing my husband and son, but I do feel as if I am at war with this famine and drought. I will not forget this time in my life.” Should no aid come to her soon, Hawaya and Nasibo will likely have to continue their journey further across the Ethiopian border, where they hope food and shelter can be found in a refugee camp. Source: IOM Forced displacement, which typically takes place from The returns of Somali refugees from neighboring rural to urban areas, is contributing to the increasing countries, including from Dadaab refugee camp urbanization of Somalia and the creation of a in Kenya, to urban centers place additional strain disenfranchised urban underclass in formal and informal on overstretched services and exacerbate existing settlements. The influx of displaced to urban areas development deficits. Nearly 40,000 people returned places increasing pressure on already limited resources, from Dadaab, primarily to urban catchment areas in infrastructure and services, while adding to social Kismayo, Baidoa and Mogadishu.190 In the absence of tensions. IDPs often lack access to affordable housing comprehensive reintegration and development support, and secure land tenure, which increases vulnerability returnees are likely to become IDPs as well. to forced evictions and drives IDPs to the margins of urban areas. Despite these challenges, IDPs are likely Forced displacement predominantly affects groups to remain in urban areas. Precedents in Somalia and that are already socially and politically marginalized. evidence from other contexts demonstrate positive Poverty and deprivation caused by IDPs’ loss of assets correlation between the duration of displacement and livelihoods are sustained and reinforced by political, in an urban context and the likelihood for IDPs to social and cultural processes. Minority clan status, permanently remain. gender and the dislocation from clanship and patronage 190 UNHCR. 2016. Refugee Population Verification Exercise. 126 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment networks contribute to entrenched marginalization of drought conditions and localized conflict, people and wider experiences of exclusion, which ultimately from rural areas will continue to move to urban render IDPs more vulnerable, less able to restore viable centers in increasing numbers and join settlements for livelihoods and living conditions, and less in a position internally displaced. to integrate with the society of the host community. Displaced women and children are among the most The influx of displaced to urban areas compounds vulnerable and confront multiple constraints including existing pressures in access to services, land and lack of adequate shelter, limited economic opportunities other resources, while reinforcing earlier patterns of and lack of control over critical resources, while also deprivation, marginalization and exclusion. IDPs face facing increased vulnerability to gender-based violence severe nutritional and food security challenges and due to limited security in the IDP settlements, poor living confront serious access constraints to basic services (e.g., conditions and limited clan protection. water and health) and livelihoods that impede resilience to drought. Forced eviction remains a significant In response to these challenges, the Government has challenge to those confronting both protracted and committed to the development of a comprehensive recent displacement; nearly 110,000 IDPs have been approach to address displacement in Somalia and has evicted in 2017 in total.194 There is speculation that integrated achieving durable solutions as a priority increasing rates of eviction may reflect increased rent- development objective under the Resilience Pillar in seeking behavior from gatekeepers and landowners the NDP. Complementary initiatives such as the Durable seeking to profit from humanitarian assistance targeting Solutions Initiative (DSI) launched in 2016 aim to support those newly displaced. these efforts. The DSI provides a collective framework for harmonizing durable solutions approaches and Increasing rates of displacement are further linked programming, advancing a holistic, multi-sectoral, multi- to worsening protection challenges, particularly for stakeholder approach with Government, humanitarian displaced women and children. Between April and and development actors. June 2017, incidence of GBV increased 9 percent and included cases of physical and sexual assault as well The current drought, combined with increasing as child sexual abuse.195 Of these cases, over three- incidence of conflict, has rapidly accelerated rates of quarters of survivors are IDPs, with incidence linked to internal displacement in Somalia. Between November congestion and poor security conditions in camps, as 2016 and September 2017, 926,000 persons were well as extended distances between water and sanitation displaced due to drought, while 171,000 others recorded facilities in settlements. Protection risks for children as displaced by conflict in the same period.191 While include family separation and child recruitment, arbitrary household data indicate a relatively even share of male- arrest, drop out from or lack of access to education, and and female- households (48 and 52 percent respectively) elevated exposure to GBV including assault, and early among the newly displaced, nearly 65 percent of those and forced marriage.196 displaced fall under the age of 18. Women and children under the age of 18 therefore account for more than Addressing the accumulated caseload of displaced three-quarters (84 percent) of those displaced.192 will be a central challenge both to drought recovery and to the long-term stability and development Recent displacements extend primarily from rural to of Somalia. Drought recovery programming should urban and peri-urban areas. Receiving regions with lay the foundation for the achievement of durable the highest concentrations of displaced include Bay, solutions for displaced populations, refugee returns Benadir, Mudug and Lower Shabelle respectively, with and affected communities. The rapid expansion of heaviest concentrations in urban catchment areas in displaced populations, combined with challenges and around Baidoa, Mogadishu, Galkayo and Kismayo. confronting existing rates of displacement, return and New arrivals frequently join existing, congested wider poverty and vulnerability, highlights the need to settlements, or establish temporary sites. New IDPs move beyond care and maintenance to a holistic, long- further combine with continuing returns from Kenya, term approach advancing self-reliance, resilience and which amount to nearly 28,000 between January- socio-economic integration through partnerships with June 2017.193 It is foreseen that with the continuation Government, humanitarian and development actors 191  UNHCR. 2017. Displacements Dashboard, Protection & Return Monitoring Network (PRMN), Internal Displacements during September 2017. 192  Ibid. 193 Regional Durable Solutions Secretariat. 2017. Self-Reliance and Resilience for Displacement-Affected Communities in Somalia. ReDSS/Somali  NGO Consortium Brief. 194 UNOCHA. 2017. Humanitarian Dashboard: April 2017.  195 Based on Gender-Based Violence Information Management System (GBVIMS) data 2017.  196 Protection Cluster. 2017. Protection Risk Analysis 2017 (draft).  Summary of Sector Assessments | 127 Box 10: Exclusion in Somalia Exclusion is defined as a process or state that prevents individuals or groups from full participation in social, economic and political life and from asserting their rights. Exclusion derives from exclusionary power relationships resulting from social identity (e.g., race, gender, ethnicity, caste/social groups/tribe or religion) and/or social location (areas that are remote, stigmatized or suffering from war/conflict) or some combination thereof (DG-ECHO 2016). The forms of exclusion will vary by social and political context, and those who are socially excluded may often be less visible and vulnerable because of discrimination against them and their low participation in community decision-making and political processes. Exclusion is frequently deeply engrained in culture and likely to be exacerbated by crisis and conflict. In Somalia, dimensions of exclusion link to social groups, ethnic and livelihood groups, gender, age, displacement status, and disability (as emerges in more detail in the sections on Gender, Conflict and Displacement & Migration). Factors of exclusion often overlap and intersect, and contribute to or compound acute protection challenges. Somali society is dynamic and hierarchical, involving shifting interactions and alliances between social groups, sub-groups, ethnic groups and other social groups. These interactions contribute to evolving relations and divisions and particularly between the power of social groups, with consequent marginalization of lower status groups. Minority and marginalized groups, dislocated from social support networks and traditional and formal decision-making structures, are frequently vulnerable to exploitation and deprivation, having minimal political representation and limited access to education, formal employment, remittances, or humanitarian relief. Data on the population of minorities in Somalia is sparse and contested, although UNOCHA in 2002 estimated that they comprised one third of the population (Hill, 2011). Minority groups have been particularly vulnerable during Somalia’s decades of violent instability and have been among the groups most severely affected during climatic crises. Evidence from the 2011 and 1991 droughts indicates that the famine-affected population was predominantly drawn from particular groups. These largely agricultural or agropastoral groups have suffered a long history of marginalization, predation and expropriation of their land (Majid and McDowell, 2012; Lindley, 2014; Besteman, 2016). They are often excluded from the economic and political networks that could grant them access to physical, political or judicial protection, and to coping mechanisms such as remittances from overseas. The same excluded social and ethnic groups have been the most likely to suffer forced displacement during conflict and drought, often of a repeated and protracted nature. As IDPs, they suffer discrimination based on presumed identity, appearance, livelihood grouping and community of origin and demonstrate worse levels of nutrition, health, education, access to employment and other services than their (also very poor) neighbors in host communities. In IDP camps in peri-urban and urban areas where the displaced live in continuing and often worsening conditions of deprivation, exclusion is deepened and takes a spatial form. IDPs are vulnerable to exploitation by land owners and extortion by camp “gatekeepers” who use them to attract and divert humanitarian assistance (Human Rights Watch, 2013; Bryld et al., 2013; 2017). They are denied political rights, have limited access to justice and have limited to no security of residence or land tenure, being regularly subject to forced eviction. The impact of the current drought reinforces these dynamics of exploitation and marginalization: over 100,000 IDPs have been evicted between January and August 2017, reflecting a 15 percent increase in evictions as compared with the same time period the year prior. Gender dynamics further inform and deepen patterns of exclusion. The traditional social system upon which socio-cultural norms are rooted assigns women inferior social and legal status and structurally excludes women from peace building and participation in political and public decision-making. Realization and enforcement of rights are challenged by traditional socio-cultural norms including early and forced marriage and FGM/C. (LOGICA, 2013) The complex interaction between statutory, religious and customary law further undermines women’s individual rights and impede women’s access to land, assets and other critical resources. Women and girls (as well as boys) confront significant protection challenges, including exposure to varying forms of gender-based violence. The context of conflict, recurring natural crises and displacement further compounds these challenges; incidence rates for sexual and physical assault, as well as other violations, are highest among displaced women and children. The climate of impunity and lack of redress for gender-based violations at community, civil, and judicial levels are further forms of gender exclusion. Source: United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) 128 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNICEF Somalia/Susannah Price at all levels. Recovery interventions should align with livelihood opportunities and interventions to strengthen the Government-led efforts to address displacement, protection and social cohesion. Recovery should also including developmental priorities to enable necessarily include support for building capacity and durable solutions highlighted in the NDP, as well as legitimacy of state and local authorities to promote build on existing initiatives to address displacement, recovery and resilience of IDP populations and to lead such as the DSI. long-term durable solutions, including through planned urban expansion, land management, dispute resolution While some returns to communities of origin are and inclusive planning. possible, safe and voluntary return may not be feasible, due to ongoing insecurity and absence of basic services, Recovery interventions targeting rural/remote or desirable for those unwilling to return. Given the populations and those wanting to return to communities context of rapid urbanization within which displacement of origin should include an operational framework and and return take place, recovery interventions fostering regular assessment of conditions required to enable local integration in urban centers and secondary sustainable return and resettlement in a safe, dignified towns remain a priority. Recovery programming should and voluntary manner. Medium-term interventions therefore look to address i) urban solutions, including include provision of a basic package of start-up sustainable integration in urban and peri-urban assistance to enable return, such as cash and livelihood areas, and; ii) rural solutions, including return and (re) support and medium- to long-term investments to integration in rural/remote areas (including IDPs who support strengthening of local authorities and to provide intend on returning to these areas/places of origin, socio-economic infrastructure and service delivery in “stayees”/host communities, and various vulnerable and places of return. minority groups). Recovery interventions targeting IDPs are integrated For population in urban or peri-urban areas, shorter-term across sectors, particularly as related to socio-economic support will focus on addressing basic needs, access to investments in urban development (including improved basic services, protection services, and support for early basic service provision, housing and shelter and skills recovery, including cash transfers, medical assistance development needs for urban displaced) and also social and access to basic livelihoods. A medium- to long- protection interventions. Separate costing for discrete term recovery strategy will include investments in displacement-related interventions has been developed. infrastructure and services delivery, improved housing (See Table 28). and land tenure security, promotion or restoration of Summary of Sector Assessments | 129 Table 28: Displacement Recovery Needs Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Urban and Peri-Urban Areas Collection of sex- and National X X 2,000,000 age-disaggregated profile data of displaced and returning populations Monitoring costs (social cohesion, National X 500,000 displacement movements, etc.) IDP personal identity documentation National X 1,000,000 and civil registration Capacity building of state and local National X 1,000,000 authorities to promote recovery and resilience of IDP populations Community-based participatory National X X 2,000,000 planning processes Support for the participation in National X X 1,000,000 civic life, dispute resolution and peaceful co-existence in displacement affected areas Promoting land tenure security through National X 500,000 improved policies and frameworks, including improved land use planning Development and adoption National X 500,000 of federal and state level policy on internal displacement and reintegration of returnees Rural and Remote Areas Assessment of conditions for National X 500,000 safe return through area-based solutions analysis Collect population profile data National X 1,000,000 on remote/rural Skills development and National X X X 12,000,000 livelihoods restoration Support for market access and National X X 1,000,000 strengthened value chains for partial returns (including those with family member remaining in urban areas) Support strengthening National X 1,000,000 of local authorities Communication and sensitization to National X 1,000,000 support re/integration of IDPs and to enable participation in civic life, dispute resolution and peaceful co-existence. Establish/strengthen transparent National X 1,000,000 dispute resolution mechanism to manage land disputes Total Displacement Needs 26,000,000 130 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Disaster Risk Reduction, become the norm. While these may have constituted the only humanitarian assistance for affected people, Risk Financing and Drought a comprehensive approach to dealing with disaster Resilience risk management, risk reduction, mitigation, response and recovery has not received due attention until recently when the Somali Disaster Management Agency DRR: Risk Profile and Background (SoDMA) and the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and The humanitarian crisis in Somalia is among the most Disaster Management (MoHADM) were established and complex protracted emergencies in the world.197 a National Disaster Management Policy developed. Somalia is highly vulnerable to disasters – the country ranks 15th on the list among the developing countries Disaster Risk Financing in Somalia at high disaster risk.198 Drought and inconsistent Gu and Deyr rainfalls are a relentless, underlying threat. Donors play a significant role in financing development Somalia has endured multiple, severe drought incidents, as well as humanitarian relief in Somalia. In 2016, official with historical trends showing droughts occur regularly development assistance (ODA) for Somalia amounted at intervals of 2-3 years in the Deyr and 8-10 years in to USD 1.3 billion, equivalent to 21 percent of Somalia’s consecutive Deyr and Gu seasons. 2016 GDP. Of that amount, 48 percent was humanitarian aid and 52 percent development aid. From 2007-2016, In addition to drought, Somalia is exposed to the the average proportion of humanitarian ODA out of risks of floods and other hazards. Floods are annual total ODA was 58 percent, with development ODA phenomena with the most severe occurrence during the accounting for the remainder. Only a small fraction of months of March-May and September-November in the ODA is channeled through Government systems, with riverine areas along the two rivers, Jubba and Shabelle. 8 percent of development aid being “on treasury” in Other hazards include cyclones and storm surges, 2016. Actual budget expenditure in that year amounted and mild earthquakes. to USD 171 million, which is only 13 percent of ODA. Remittances are another key source of external financing DRM Legal, Policy and Institutional for Somalia, estimated at USD 1.4 billion in 2016 (23 Arrangements in Somalia percent of GDP). Foreign direct investment flows were With the breakout of armed conflict in the early 1990s, equivalent to 12 percent of GDP. Compared to external state institutions collapsed. There has since been a financing, domestic resource mobilization is very vacuum in terms of comprehensive and coordinated limited, with Government revenues amounting to only disaster management policy and institutions. As a result, two percent of GDP in 2016. Somalia has a contingency hundreds of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), budget, with an allocation of USD 2.3 million in the both national and international, United Nations (UN) revised 2017 budget, which can be used for emergency agencies, religious groups and donor assistance have expenditures on the authority of the Minister. provided humanitarian aid in response, as a lifeline Overall, Somalia is very dependent on external aid for for communities to survive during and after disasters. disaster response. This is evidenced by a significant spike Some of the regions within the country, namely (of 221 percent) of humanitarian ODA flows in response Somaliland and Puntland, have developed autonomous to the 2011 drought. Available data for 2017 suggests institutions as regional governments in these areas a similar significant spike in response to the ongoing took control. In the rest of the country, absence of any drought, with reported humanitarian flows already 52 unified governance structure meant that uncoordinated percent higher than in 2016, when flows were already and ad hoc mechanisms to deal with disasters have above the average of the past 10 years. 197 UNDP.  2015. Somalia Project Document - Enhancing Climate Resilience of the Vulnerable Communities and Ecosystems in Somalia. 198 UNOCHA. 2015. Humanitarian Response Plan: 2016. Summary of Sector Assessments | 131 © UNSOM In the case of droughts, disaster risk financing (DRF) Given the volatility of ODA flows and past experience strategies need to be closely integrated with policies with delayed response, initial DRF efforts could focus and investment decisions related to agriculture and on ensuring that external sources of financing are in food security. Drought risk needs to be addressed place ex-ante to respond quickly to future disasters at through a combination of policy and financial measures, sufficient scale. Such funds could then be disbursed which include national contingency/emergency reserve, based on the stages of drought in question. The success financing augmented supplies of food grains, support of such instruments will depend on donor/partner subsidies or social safety nets for vulnerable populations, interest in shifting their own operational modalities to and in acute situations, ensuring the continuity of support collective, pre-planned, rules-based financing. humanitarian responses. 132 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment International Humanitarian Assistance Effects and Impact of the Drought In the absence of organized Government mechanisms, The back-to-back drought episodes have had the the United Nations Office for the Coordination of devastating effect of diminishing any possibilities of the Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has mobilized and affected communities to bounce back. Their livestock, coordinated humanitarian efforts in Somalia since 1999. which is their main source of livelihoods, has not been able to regenerate and recover in numbers. This has Donors play a significant role in financing development resulted in a vicious cycle of poverty. The droughts have as well as humanitarian relief in Somalia. In line with had a devastating effect on most of the pre-existing the purpose of the Grand Bargain from the World water sources, leading to their progressive and then Humanitarian Summit to anticipate and prepare for definitive drying-up. For instance, due to poor rainfall crises, deliver protection and assistance better to the experienced in the upper parts of the Shabelle basin most vulnerable and restore opportunity and dignity to during the previous rainy season, coupled with over them, donors have moved quickly to commit or pledge utilization of the river water in Somalia and Ethiopia, a more than USD 862 million for the implementation of the significant reduction in the water levels in Shabelle River 2017 HRP.199 This unprecedented level of early support in has been witnessed, according to the Somalia Water and the Somalia context has enabled operational agencies Land Information Management (SWALIM). to rapidly reach millions of Somalis with safe water, food and medical assistance. The current humanitarian situation in Somalia continues to deteriorate and an elevated risk of famine persists in The Somalia Humanitarian Fund (SHF) is a multi-donor, some parts of the country. At its peak, over 6.7 million country-based pooled fund established in 2010 to people were estimated to be in need of protection support the timely allocation and disbursement of donor and humanitarian assistance, more than half of the resources to address the most urgent humanitarian population of Somalia.200 Major disease outbreaks are needs in Somalia. Almost USD 400 million was allocated spreading, with an increase in cases of Acute Watery by SHF for humanitarian response in Somalia since 2011. Diarrhea (AWD)/Cholera and measles. The World Bank in May 2017 approved a USD 50 million In the absence of effective DRM institutions, the emergency project – the Somalia Emergency Drought combination of climatic shocks such as drought and Response and Recovery Project (SEDRP) - to scale up floods, compounded by conflict, has resulted in full- the drought response and recovery efforts in Somalia. scale humanitarian crises. The inheritance of conflict This project, implemented through FAO and ICRC, is in Somalia has weakened the capacity of Government in addition to the ongoing “Strengthening Capacity for institutions to address consequences of disasters such Disaster and Climate-Risk Management in Somalia,” a as El Niño or other climate-related challenges and project funded to the tune of USD 450,000. natural hazards. 199  of November 2017, OCHA. As 200 UNOCHA. 2017. Somali: Humanitarian Dashboard: July 2017.  Summary of Sector Assessments | 133 Recovery Needs The total recovery needs estimated for strengthening the DRR system in Somalia is USD 5 million. Table 29: Summary Needs for Disaster Risk Reduction and Drought Resilience Summary of Drought Recovery Needs Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) (national/ Short-term Medium-term Long-term regional) (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) DRM Policy and legislation Harmonization of existing institutional, 425,000 legislative and policy frameworks – including finalization of the current DRM Policy Harmonization of Existing Policies National X X 200,000 and Institutions Finalization of draft National National X X 125,000 DRM Policy Enactment of DRM Laws National X 100,000 Capacity building of National DRM institutions 1,575,000 DRM Preparedness, National X X 950,000 Contingency Planning and Risk Financing (Fund) Personnel and Training at National X X X 275,000 National and Subnational Level and Mainstreaming of DRM in Development Sectors Capacity Building of National National X X X 350,000 DRM Institutions - Equipment and Facilities Early warning and information management system (Met services, Information channeling) 2,125,000 Basic National Met Services National X X 1,475,000 Station Connected to Regional Met Agencies Emergency Communication National X X 450,000 and Control Rooms EW Information Management National X X X 200,000 and Channeling Drought Management system 875,000 Drought Cycle National X 175,000 Management Training Drought Coordination National X X 150,000 Mechanism Drought Vulnerability Assessment National X X 250,000 and Risk Reduction Planning Livestock Risk Insurance Pilot National X X X 300,000 Capacity Development Total Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience Needs 5,000,000 134 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia 135 Drought Recovery Strategy One of the objectives of the Drought Impact and food insecurity and famine persists, with most of the Needs Assessment (DINA) is to introduce a recovery population trapped in poverty and deprivation. While an strategy that sustainably addresses drought and effective drought recovery strategy needs to address the famine risk and promotes medium-term recovery priorities of drought cycle management, it should also and long-term resilience with the ultimate goal of seek to mitigate the impact of these underlying drivers preventing another famine in the country. As has and stressors.201 been discussed earlier in the Executive Summary, the on-going drought is an outcome of below-average Crippling Impact of Conflicts: One of the underlying rainfall failure for four consecutive seasons in the last drivers has been the pattern of recurrent conflicts in two years. In 2017, a concerted effort made by the FGS Somalia, driven by ideologically based insurgencies (al- and international agencies prevented famine in Somalia, Shabaab), warlordism, inter-clan rivalries and disputes, though the risk of famine remains. The continued failure and entities profiting economically from insecurity of rainfall, loss of agricultural productivity, and food and violence. These conflicts have crippled Somalia’s shortages, accompanied by weak government delivery economy, which remains underdeveloped and fragile. systems, inefficient markets, the impacts of conflict and GDP per capita is estimated at USD 450, the incidence of insecurity, will prolong the drought into 2018, requiring poverty at 73 percent, and extreme poverty at 43 percent.202 a continued, concerted effort among all actors to avert Productivity in agriculture and livestock sector, which are famine in Somalia. In parallel, efforts to address the the mainstays of the national economy, are characterized structural drivers of drought and to break out of the as low, structurally impacted by scarcity and poor cycle of recurrent crisis need to be considered now management of water, land and other natural resources. to reduce the impacts of drought in the future. This Absence of infrastructure, market integration, and strategy suggests the guiding principles, sector-specific technical and support services to help boost productivity interventions and institutional arrangements needed to have also contributed to low growth and income in find a sustainable solution to recurrent drought, famine this sector. As a result, the sector is highly susceptible risk and chronic food insecurity in Somalia. to price, supply and labor disruptions caused by other shocks. Underlying Conflict Drivers and Environmental Degradation: Somalia has suffered Stressors for Drought serious environmental degradation, and its natural resource management has worsened over the years Drought in Somalia has been aggravated by underlying due to a combination of factors. The degradation has conflict drivers and stressors. A combination of political, occurred due to extensive deforestation, soil erosion and governance, security, economic and environmental diminishing volumes of water in major rivers. Inadequacy factors has complicated government and international of water supply infrastructure and management has led efforts to deliver effective assistance to drought-affected to over-grazing around water points, accelerating soil people and alleviate the impact of humanitarian erosion. Additional consequences of environmental crisis. These factors together have created endemic degradation and resource scarcity include increased conditions under which the vicious cycle of crop failures, competition between groups over resources, which can 201 The  Drought Recovery Strategy draws upon a number of reference documents available on Somalia, the key among them are: Spyros Demetriou, 2017. Business Case Assessment for Accelerating Development Investments in Famine Response and Prevention in Yemen, South Sudan, Somalia and North-east Nigeria (draft); FAO, UNICEF & WFP. 2012. A Strategy for Enhancing Resilience in Somalia; Federal Government of Somalia. 2017. Somalia National Development Plan (2017-19), and UNOCHA. 2017. Humanitarian Response Plan 2018. 202 UNDP and WB. 2002. Socio Economic Survey Somalia.  136 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNDP Somalia/Said Isse aggravate conflict in contexts of significant declines in not just in Mogadishu but across the country has helped livelihoods and welfare. in easing the impact during the most recent droughts. The Government has set up the Ministry of Humanitarian Governance Issues: The most positive development Affairs & Disaster Management (MoHADM) and the in recent years has been the formation of the Federal National Drought Committee to coordinate relief efforts Government in 2012, which led to a renewed emphasis in Mogadishu and in the Federal Member States (FMS). on improving governance and strengthening state These structures (FGS and FMS) have worked well with capacities at Federal and State levels. Improvements international agencies in delivering drought relief. At in governance and strengthening of institutions have the same time, Government institutions still have limited contributed significantly to famine prevention in 2017. capacities and limited reach, and conflict has limited The stronger presence of the government institutions on state outreach significantly. the ground, and their ability to make services available Drought Recovery Strategy | 137 DINA: Rationale, Objectives and Preventing Famine Guiding Principles The DINA recognizes that food security continues to be one of the most important priorities in Somalia. Drought The establishment of a full federal government in is a frequent risk in Somalia, and a combination of factors 2012 led to international re-engagement with Somalia could turn drought into a famine. The DINA suggests within the framework of the Compact for Somalia, and several measures to respond to the immediate priorities a considerable increase in development assistance of drought and ensure that the people have access to aligned with the Peace and State-building Goals. food supplies. Though the DINA leaves short-term humanitarian interventions to the HRP, it recommends Following the 2011-2012 famine, the international several capacity-building measures as well as plans to humanitarian community recognized that life-saving increase agriculture productivity in the short run so that assistance alone was insufficient to address widespread drought risk is alleviated and the risk of another famine vulnerability and exposure to drought and other shocks, affecting Somalia is reduced. It also suggests flexibility leading to greater emphasis on resilience-based in drought management so that in situations in which programming with a focus on strengthening livelihoods drought conditions deteriorate, attending to food and service provision. As both humanitarian and security remains the most important priority. Famine development assistance since 2014 have gone up, it has prevention thus remains a core objective of the DINA. not brought economic development and food security to Somalia. Since 2016, the drought has aggravated food insecurity, economic losses and displacement and left as Building Resilience many as 6.7 million people in need of assistance, and The DINA seeks to build resilience at the state, these impacts are expected to continue into 2018. The community and household level through its recovery DINA has been initiated with the objective of breaking interventions across 18 sectors. In tandem with the the cycle of drought-induced food insecurity by linking DINA, a Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF) is humanitarian assistance with long-term development being developed to provide an institutional platform for and state-building efforts. the recovery interventions suggested in different sectors. The DINA complements the 2018 Humanitarian The RRF will also support Somalia’s transition from Response Plan (HRP) for Somalia, part of the three- the ongoing humanitarian and early drought recovery year Humanitarian Strategy (2016-18). To ensure interventions towards medium-term drought recovery, complementarity and reduce overlaps, the DINA has not disaster preparedness and long-term resilience building. included interventions which serve the core objectives Within the context of the DINA, resilience refers to the and priorities of HRP. For example, emergency capacity of government, households and communities to interventions on the ground related to food security and deal with and recover from natural shocks and conflicts. nutrition are included in HRP, so these services have not Whereas the Government should be able to secure been replicated in DINA. an enabling environment for regular developmental The DINA aligns with a number of priorities included in activities to take root in Somalia, communities and the National Development Plan (2017-19) (NDP), which households pursue new strategies that preserve and presents the overarching development framework in enhance their income, livelihoods and well-being. Somalia and features a focus on resilience building. Recovery interventions included in the DINA will enable Nonetheless, in the spirit of complementarity, Governments to provide better access to services, and interventions around expanding different areas of households and communities to rebuild their assets and governance and investment in structural reforms, human livelihoods, thus developing resilience at all levels. resources and infrastructure development which do not have a direct link to drought recovery and resilience are not included in DINA. In its scope and coverage, the DINA has taken into account the following objectives and guiding principles. 138 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment The objective of building resilience is included in both Only by addressing Somalia’s long-standing conflict the HRP and the National Development Plan. The 2018 can the recurring threat of food insecurity and famine HRP focuses on four core strategic objectives: providing be tackled in a sustainable manner. Policies and life-saving assistance, as well as nutrition, protection and interventions aimed at reducing drought risk and resilience support to the most vulnerable. The NDP too preventing famine should take into account the has a resilience pillar, which cuts across different sectors likely impact of these measures in a fragile situation. and includes issues such as reintegration of displaced Planning and implementation of these measures should persons and returnees, disaster management, social be informed by a clear understanding of how each protection, etc. Through its interventions, DINA aims intervention will contribute to peace and stability in the to connect with resilience aspects of both the HRP medium- to long-term. Proposed interventions must and NDP, but places greater emphasis on economic therefore take account of Somalia’s marked regional and and institutional aspects of resilience that could be local variations in ecology, livelihoods systems, social developed over a period of three to five years. systems, political power and governance, as well as shifting patterns of conflict. Developing national and state capacity for resilience requires a national leadership committed to steady A guiding principle of the conflict-sensitive approach is to investment in drought management. It demands a “do no harm.”203 Conflict sensitivity involves considering number of measures to be implemented simultaneously: both the effects of conflict on drought response activities strengthening the ability of productive and social sectors and the effects of drought response activities on conflict. to respond effectively to crises and shocks and mitigating All recovery interventions should add to the structural their impact; developing protection instruments and stability of, and enhance respect for, good governance social safety nets to protect the weakest in society and human rights. beyond crisis periods; and supporting the accountability and transparency of drought management to build trust Reinforcing Commitment to Durable Solutions across communities. Drought recovery programming should lay the foundation for the achievement of durable solutions Integrating a Conflict-sensitive Approach for displaced populations, refugee returns and affected The drivers of drought and conflicts are interconnected communities. The rapid expansion of displaced and mutually reinforcing. These drivers, therefore, populations, combined with challenges confronting need to be addressed through an integrated approach existing rates of displacement, and wider poverty and that brings together humanitarian, recovery and vulnerability, highlights the need to move beyond care developmental approaches to address long-term and maintenance to a long-term approach advancing poverty and marginalization. Two elements, in particular, self-reliance and resilience through partnerships will build resilience against both future drought and with government, humanitarian and development conflict and reduce their impact. These are restored actors at all levels. economic growth, employment and reduced inequality; and increased legitimacy of government and public institutions through transparency and improved performance. The DINA emphasizes both elements through several strands of recovery needs. 203 The  “do no harm” approach involves understanding conflict dynamics and local context and their linkages to the proposed recovery program. Ensuring recovery interventions do no harm involves: understanding the conflict context, identifying conflict triggers and conflict resolution mechanisms, analyzing the interventions and their linkages to context and conflict triggers, and adopting an iterative approach to program design and implementation. Drought Recovery Strategy | 139 A comprehensive approach to drought management DINA is also driven by the mandate and comparative would thus require including durable solutions for advantage of the agencies participating in the assessment. dealing with the issue of displacement. The FGS is Approximately 20 agencies are participating in the DINA already committed to this process through an inclusion as per their mandate and specialization. Following the of reference to durable solutions in the NDP, which preparation of the RRF, recovery interventions would be reflects the broader, ongoing evolution of the issue implemented by these agencies and actors in support of from a humanitarian priority to a government-led the FGS and FMS. development responsibility. The Government, through the National Commission on Refugees and IDPs, has The DINA represents an official process led by the FGS. also formulated a National Policy on Refugees and IDPs It has highlighted the need to reinforce and strengthen that is framed along the commitments made by the FGS capacities that already exist at national and local levels. within the framework of the IGAD Nairobi Plan of Action. The assessment proposes a multi-year timeframe, which Any drought-related recovery strategy should seek to could be utilized for analysing, strategizing, planning build on the framework outlined by the Government and financing operations in different sectors. The within such initiatives. DINA embodies these core elements of NWoW and serves as a means for working across the humanitarian- The Durable Solutions Initiative proposes an operational development nexus in Somalia. framework and set of operating principles for durable solutions interventions in Somalia. It advocates Focusing on Inclusion of the Most the area-based approach, supports the creation of Vulnerable Groups conditions for safe, sustainable and voluntary return to Somalia, and builds the resilience of refugees and host In Somalia, there are specific population groups that communities. Recovery interventions should align with are particularly vulnerable and need to be prioritized the five developmental priorities to enable durable in recovery efforts. These include poor households, solutions highlighted in the National Development disadvantaged ethnic minorities, women and female- Plan, including: i) rule of law and governance; ii) access headed households, and children. These groups to land and tenure security and inclusive development; face particularly high risks, including exclusion and iii) individual documentation, social inclusion and discrimination based on power structures, tradition participation; iv) access to services and labor markets; and social norms in Somalia. Inclusion of these groups and v) rural reintegration capacity. in the recovery process is essential, which also means extending protection and safety nets that need to target them for priority recovery assistance. Reflecting the New Way of Working (NWoW) The DINA reflects the principles and priorities of the Given the ways in which conflict and drought have in the New Way of Working (NWoW). Across 18 sectors that past amplified existing social divisions and inequalities, are included in the DINA, recovery needs that have drought management measures should give particular emerged present a collective outcome towards which attention to the circumstances and needs of these the FGS, FMS and all development partners can commit marginalized and vulnerable groups. This should include their resources and plan their implementation. Recovery an understanding of relevant differences within these interventions included in the DINA and elaborated groups (for example between those displaced by the further through the RRF are quantifiable and can have recent drought, the long-term displaced, and other measurable impact on reducing people’s risks and marginalized urban dwellers). Such an approach should vulnerabilities. be developed through needs analysis, which should be followed through communication with affected groups, especially the most vulnerable, during implementation. 140 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Government Leadership and Adopting a Whole of Prioritizing Community Inclusion and People- the Governance Approach centered Interventions The DINA and RRF have been led by the FGS with Community participation in all aspects of the recovery engagement from the FMS. The same leadership process is fundamental, so the recovery program demonstrated during this process will be required should focus on people-centered interventions and in the ensuing months and years to ensure effective encourage community decision-making, ownership and implementation of the recovery program and empowerment to ensure solutions are locally appropriate coordination among the various stakeholders. Only a and sustainable. It is important to factor local knowledge sustained effort to strengthen institutions and improve and skills into the design and implementation of recovery governance can reduce the impact of drought and interventions. address the issue of famine prevention and food security on a long-term basis. It requires federal and Ensuring the Centrality of Protection state governments, supported by donors, to combat large-scale corruption and begin to deliver public As the scale of displacement has increased, the issues services, particularly security, at all levels. It calls for the of exclusion raise serious concern, and the need for finalization of constitutional negotiations regarding the protection has increased. The primary responsibility allocation of power and authority between the FGS for protection rests with the national authorities, and FMS. At the same time, it is equally important to in accordance with national and international legal restart the national reconciliation process among Somali instruments. In the Somalia context, the UN system clans, focusing from the bottom up. A transparent and has identified three priorities that form that basis inclusive process in establishing the new administration of its Centrality of Protection Strategy. The strategy will reduce divisive group dynamics and promote greater takes into account the role and contribution of all the social cohesion. There is a critical need for a whole-of- relevant actors—governments, UN agencies and other governance approach that is process-oriented, flexible development actors—to achieve protection goals. and responsive to people’s needs. Through a greater These three priorities are: enhancing ways to identify attention to underlying drivers of conflict and integration and address differential forms of exclusion, including of other conflict-sensitive measures, it is possible to those based on societal discrimination, power structures, reduce the level and intensity of conflict and improve vulnerability, age, and gender and strengthening inclusion the level of governance and delivery of services during a of and ensuring accountability by community-based and drought situation. other non-traditional humanitarian responders, for more effective protection to affected population; addressing critical protection concerns with increasing displacement Building on the comparative strengths of all in IDP sites and collective centers, including heightened stakeholders protection risks/threats that have emerged in the failure The recovery strategy will take into consideration the to end displacement through appropriate solutions diverse set of actors delivering services in Somalia. (local integration, return, and settlement elsewhere); Government leadership, coordination and policy setting engaging with conflict- affected communities and parties will be central to the recovery strategy. Concerted (national and international) to the conflict to minimize capacity and systems building efforts will be required disproportionate and indiscriminate targeting of civilians to ensure the Government is able to play this role and and civilian assets vital for survival. These three priorities incrementally start to provide services. However, the are reflected in the DINA and RRF. recovery strategy will take an opportunistic approach and seek practical collaborations between state and non-state actors that will leverage the geographic reach, Key Recovery Interventions experience, strengths and existing systems represented The drought recovery strategy proposes a two-pronged across all stakeholders. This includes non-governmental approach aimed at improving assets and livelihoods organizations, private sector, academia, civil society and and reducing the impacts of conflict and displacement government actors. while enhancing the impact of drought management Drought Recovery Strategy | 141 measures. It identifies measures which improve assets and livelihoods at the level of households and communities—improved agricultural productivity and livestock management, diversification of livelihoods, provision of housing, etc. At the same time, it recommends measures that promote social inclusion and gender equity, enhance protection, and reduce the impact of conflicts. These measures are aimed at reducing the impacts of conflict and displacement, and enhancing the impact of drought management measures. The details of these measures are included in sector summaries included in this synthesis report and the sector and cross-cutting chapters in Volume II. Key recovery interventions across the productive, infrastructure and social sectors are briefly outlined here: Improve Agricultural Productivity An enhanced investment in agriculture represents an important strand of the recovery strategy. Among the important measures which help farmers, are better irrigation, flood-control, on-farm and communal storage, farm-to-market access, agricultural inputs and widespread adoption of drought-and pest-resistant seeds. These measures will help farmers diversify their incomes through better quality and alternative crops. Revival of agriculture in Somalia would require rebuilding of a functioning, effective agriculture research and extension system (almost totally absent at present), starting with 300 extension officers and aiming at a total of 600 officers. It would also need better post-harvest and dry storage facilities and techniques. Rehabilitating and improving transport links between main ports, farms, and urban markets can help both reduce input costs to farmers and retail prices to consumers for all crops, and especially for bananas and other fruits and vegetables. Increase Irrigation Facilities Increasing irrigation facilities would have a direct impact on agricultural productivity. Revival/rehabilitation of pump-fed irrigation systems will contribute to the efficiency of pump usage/operation and increase crop production. The rehabilitation of deschek systems/ infrastructure will help farming communities to use floodwater efficiently and reduce/mitigate the risks associated with this type of farming. © UNSOM 142 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Surface water harvesting structures (such as sand and Diversify Livelihoods and Increase Employment subsurface dams, berkads, contour bunding, etc.) Efforts to diversify livelihoods and increase employment play a significant role in crop and livestock production include short- and medium-term strategies. In the short- in Somalia. Therefore, rehabilitation/construction term, these measures would include cash for work, cash of water harvesting infrastructure with knowledge/ transfer and efforts to encourage alternative livelihoods. skills transfer programs and a better regulatory/policy Medium-term measures would involve organizing Somali framework would help both agro-pastoral and pastoral primary producers, petty traders, and small businesses communities, ultimately contributing to food security into producers’ associations, and working with them to and famine prevention. design, plan and implement livelihood, employment and vocational training strategies and interventions. It Develop Livestock Management would also emphasize organizing women into networks, producer groups, associations, and cooperatives so that As livestock is the mainstay of Somalia’s economy, they can increase productivity and improve returns on improved livestock management practices are their labor and capital. essential for sustaining livelihoods of pastoralist and agropastoralist communities. The key recovery objective in this sector is to support the recovery of herds among Improve Access to Health, Nutrition and Education poor agropastoralists through selective restocking and Recovery measures in health include developing health improved veterinary services while encouraging alternate policies which include policies on working through non- livelihoods and improved rangeland management. state actors where relevant, increasing human resources Herds should have the right livestock composition, for health, and implementing a comprehensive health including not only more drought-tolerant animals like services delivery plan by increasing the number of goats but also larger animals, such as camels, which are functional health facilities. It also includes increasing usually never included because of their high cost. The the number of mobile clinics and specific community agropastoralists and pastoralists will also be supported interventions such as immunization campaigns and towards enhancing the quality of their livestock, rather AWD/cholera awareness campaigns. Resilient recovery than possessing huge numbers of animals with poor of the sector would also look at Government-led disaster productivity and high vulnerability to effects of droughts. response planning to ensure the system can scale up quickly in the case of crises. Among other measures that need to be taken to support livestock health is to increase private investment A recovery strategy for nutrition includes strengthening in commercial fodder production, including the prevention and management of acute malnutrition in establishment of fodder banks and extensive training children under five, timely procurement and provision in fodder storage. Another important priority would be of treatment and medical supplies, and regular to develop capacity for public and private veterinary provision and implementation of other interventions service providers, disease surveillance and diagnosis such as Vitamin A supplementation, deworming, and facilities and laboratories. nutrition surveillance. The recovery strategy includes responding to the needs A Continued Focus on Food Security and priorities of affected population and maximize their In Somalia, there is a strong association between food participation in the education system. It would also insecurity and poverty. Addressing the very high and consist of prioritising the needs of displaced children widespread poverty and unemployment in Somalia will whose learning is affected, focusing on displaced also contribute to sustainable improvement in the food children of school going age who have never enrolled security of its population. In Somalia, short- to medium- in any schools, and ensuring national ownership and term interventions will focus on improved household leadership of the education recovery strategy. food storage to reduce food waste. Medium- to long- term interventions will improve food security early warning systems and support development of a national Expand Water Supply in Urban Areas food security strategy and policy and a national poverty In rural areas, water supply is ensured through reduction and resilience strategy. traditional sources. In urban areas, a lack of investment in water services holds back opportunities for productive livelihoods and leads to tensions between host and migrant populations. Recovery efforts in urban areas Drought Recovery Strategy | 143 would include rehabilitation of existing schemes and Address Gender-specific Recovery Needs construction of new ones, which will support the needs of The gendered aspects of recovery needs include IDPs. Almost all urban areas in Somalia need immediate economic and livelihoods development for women and support to improve water supply and sanitation services. promotion of climate-resilient agriculture and ownership This will require clear policy and regulatory guidance of crops for women farmers. A sustainable recovery for developing public-private partnerships with water requires strengthening the capacities of displaced and utilities in urban areas. vulnerable women to access livelihoods through cash- for-work and short- term employment opportunities Rehabilitate Road Network through community infrastructure rehabilitation. It includes a targeted approach for vulnerable women and Somalia is becoming urbanized very fast, with a large other groups for unconditional cash transfer support. segment of displaced people living in or near cities. The medium-term recovery efforts support training and However, a sizeable population still lives in rural areas skills enhancement, livestock asset distribution, and and lack accessibility, especially outside of Mogadishu. market related skills for women. Recovery efforts also While the entire road network in Somalia would include support for women’s access to housing, land benefit from repairs and renovation, there is a need to and property ownership issues and dispute resolution prioritize the interventions to maximize the impact of mechanisms, including legal aid and documentation. available resources. The reconstruction work will aim at linkages that are Implement Urban Solutions, including Sustainable destroyed but are critical for recovery, especially Local Integration in Urban and Peri-urban areas primary roads. These would require bitumen surfacing Urban solutions support displacement-affected and/or low volume paving. Meanwhile some of the populations living in urban areas by addressing service primary roads that would bring positive impact but delivery across the communities hosting displaced are not destroyed may receive basic maintenance persons. While humanitarian support will focus on to make them motorable. The other roads, mainly addressing basic needs (food, water and sanitation, and feeder roads, will require rehabilitation, mostly gravel. emergency shelter, access to basic services (education Depending on several factors like security, availability and health), early recovery support includes basic of labor and extent of road damage, some roads may livelihoods and psycho-social support. The recovery be rehabilitated using equipment while others would strategy in medium and long-term promotes multi- need labor intensive methods. The prioritization of road stakeholder response in different areas to improve self- investments will take into consideration the potential for reliance, resilience and socio-economic integration of direct positive impact on humanitarian response, either vulnerable populations. Urban recovery would address reducing logistics overheads or extending assistance the existing structural deficiencies in urban areas under and markets to secondary towns. pressure from rapidly rising populations as well as looking at urban planning and development in secondary towns. Implement an Integrated Environment Program Recovery needs include rehabilitation of rangelands Address Displacement and reforestation, which can also provide a large Addressing the impact of the drought in IDP settlements number of short-, medium- and long-term employment is a critical need. The 2018 HRP clearly outlines needs opportunities, especially for youth. Experience related to the provision of shelter and services in camps. elsewhere in Somalia indicates that this work could be The Drought Recovery Strategy would look at addressing effectively undertaken through a community contracting challenges that perpetuate the vulnerabilities of IDPs type of approach that ensures ownership and the long- and prevent them from achieving durable solutions. term stewardship of the environment. In addition, efforts This would include looking at addressing the housing must be made to develop the renewable energy sector, shortage through construction and rental; integrating which has the potential to involve women and youth and water and sanitation service provision to IDP settlements can provide power sources to sectors that are currently into municipal and district planning; looking at underdeveloped because of energy deficits or high governance issues around developing solutions for IDPs costs of energy. and addressing issues of land conflict. 144 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNSOM Develop Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Risk Implementing the DINA Financing Systems Institutional and implementation arrangements for It is imperative for the FGS and FMS to view recovery implementing the recommendations of the DINA will as an opportunity to plan and implement a systematic be detailed in the RRF. As requested by the FGS, the approach to identifying, assessing and reducing disaster RRF will serve as an implementation platform for the risk. An important priority would be to set up an early DINA and for resilience-building interventions, enabling warning system through which a network of information the development of a systematic, programmatic and systems such as meteorological stations, communication integrated approach for multi-sectoral recovery that: systems and decision subsystems can forecast potential (a) provides integrated and harmonized policies and climatic shocks, providing the response systems time strategies for recovery; (b) ensures coordination of to prepare for the adverse events. Establishing and interventions among stakeholders, and helps avoid strengthening emergency response, preparedness and gaps and minimize overlaps in the coverage of recovery recovery mechanisms, and mainstreaming disaster risk interventions; (c) strengthens aid harmonization reduction into development processes are among the and set uniform and consistent standards for the other important priorities of disaster risk reduction. These implementation of the recovery program; (d) establishes priorities can be achieved only when the institutional robust monitoring and evaluation mechanisms for capacity for DRR as represented by the MOHADM and disaster recovery at the programmatic and project SODMA at the federal level, and HADMA and NERAD at levels; and (e) leverages predictable investments and the FMS level is strengthened. development of inter-linked projects and interventions Somalia can also begin to explore disaster risk financing for resilient recovery. as part of building resilience to recurrent drought. The RRF defines a multi-sectoral approach to Initial risk financing efforts could focus on ensuring that prioritizing key development and investment priorities, external sources of financing are in place ahead of time allowing Government authorities to build on existing to respond quickly to future disasters at sufficient scale. efforts to strengthen resilience to recurrent disasters, The sector strategy also earmarks funding to pilot a increase disaster management and crisis response livestock risk insurance program. capacity, and enhance Somalia’s ability to respond to climate change. The RRF serves two distinct and simultaneous functions: an operational and investment framework that will prioritize and finance recovery interventions while developing government capacity for managing a recovery program, and an implementation platform for the DINA. Drought Recovery Strategy | 145 Annex 1: Drought Recovery Action Plan Somalia DINA Drought Recovery Action Plan Intervention Level of Activity Timeframe Cost (USD) National/Regional Short-term Medium-term Long-term (Year 1) (Years 2-3) (Years 4+) Macroeconomic Impact Mobile money for National X 2,000,000 drought response Regulatory support for National X 400,000 the ICT Sector Developing a national ID system National X 100,000 Building the digital ecosystem National X TBD Increased access to Internet National X X X TBD Financial services - Includes building National X X X 1,000,000 the capacity of the Central Bank of Somalia to license and oversee the financial sector; and access to micro- finance credit Sub-Total Macroeconomic Impact 3,500,000 Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-Fed Crop Production Improving access to quality National X X X 95,500,029 agricultural inputs for vulnerable rural population and returnees Irrigation canal rehabilitation National X X X 150,040,098 Recovery/resilience of banana National X X X 9,752,500 plantations (small and large) Improving farm management practices National X X X 50,000,013 (incl. SMART, post-harvest handling) Institutional capacity building National X X X 19,000,006 for better governance Rebuilding agriculture research National X X X 41,000,012 and extension system Strengthening informal and building National X X X 20,000,006 formal seed system Water & watershed management National X X X 115,000,000 Sub-Total Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-Fed Crop Production 500,292,664 Agriculture – Livestock Vaccination against prioritized National X X 66,500,000 diseases (PPR/CCPP/SGP) Supportive treatment National X X 13,860,000 146 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Strengthening community based National X X 1,134,000 animal health service delivery (CAHWs training and kits supply) and linking them with the private sector Establishing mobile clinics National X X 500,000 Rehabilitate laboratory facilities National X X 250,000 Strengthening the public veterinary National X X 2,500,000 service and SPS Feed supply (range cube and mineral National X X 1,000,000 blocks) and feed stores construction/ rehabilitation Fodder production National X X 3,000,000 and management Restocking (1% of the total damage National X X 6,000,000 for sheep and goats (167,317) among very poor and poor households) with focus in South Central regions Rehabilitation of livestock water National X X 4,000,000 infrastructures Rangeland management National X X 5,000,000 Capacity development National X X 2,000,000 Poultry production National X X 1,250,000 Bee keeping National X X 1,000,000 Genetic research and breeding National X X 2,500,000 Sub-Total Agriculture – Livestock 110,494,000 Agriculture – Fisheries Distribution of fishing kits Regional X 150,000 Development of fish landing sites Regional X 2,000,000 Development of spate fed Regional X 1,500,000 desert aquaculture Development of dried fish Regional X 2,000,000 Sub-Total Agriculture – Fisheries 5,650,000 Water Supply and Sanitation Construction of new boreholes National X X X 77,000,000 Rehabilitation of boreholes National X 15,200,000 Construction of new shallow wells National X 1,935,000 Rehabilitation of shallow wells National X X 2,184,000 Construction of new berkads National X 203,000 Rehabilitation of berkads National X 216,000 Institutional strengthening and National X 34,000,000 capacity building Urban/Rural sanitation National X X X 50,000,000 (drainage, sewage, and solid waste management) Sub-Total Water Supply and Sanitation 180,738,000 Annex 1: Drought Recovery Action Plan | 147 Transport Short-term rehabilitation, Regional X 83,600,000 reconstruction and maintenance of 1099 km of roads Medium-term rehabilitation, Regional X 64,300,000 reconstruction and maintenance of 1008 km of roads Sub-Total Transport 147,900,000 Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resource Management Emergency capacity building National X 2,000,000 of government forest rangers Emergency re-seeding of selected National X 10,000,000 rangelands with fast-growing grass species and setting up of germplasm mother blocks (seed production zones for indigenous fruit tree species) Improvement of energy efficiency National X 8,000,000 of existing charcoal carbonization and kilning systems Scaling up evergreen agriculture Southern Somalia X 17,000,000 (integrating with trees-on-farm agroforestry) and ISFM and training forest end users on sustainable extractive techniques for NWFPs Development of legislation to support National X 1,000,000 zoning of wildlife parks, migratory corridors Cleaner and renewable National X 15,000,000 energy sources – promotion of energy-efficiency Technical capacity improvement of National X 4,000,000 Somali government - remote sensing, GIS, national lab Cleaner and renewable energy National X X 27,000,000 sources –promotion of solar energy technologies and promoting the use of LPG in Somalia Rehabilitation of selected gullies and National X 11,000,000 other severely degraded ecosystems in the North and promoting wide-scale adoption of low-cost integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) for improving soil resources Assisting the Somali government with National X X 3,000,000 the development of a biomass energy policy Development of a power National X 853,510 master plan Cross-border electrification and National X 1,000,000 interconnector study Sub-Total Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resource Management 99,853,510 148 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Health Engaging the public in National X X X 4,118,187 promotion of health, hygiene and safe drinking water, sanitation, environmental hygiene, food safety and safe waste disposal Promoting food borne diseases labo- National X X X 4,118,187 ratory-based surveillance by develop- ing food safety guidelines and interventions Introducing standardized rapid diag- National X X X 2,470,912 nostic technologies for prevalent communicable diseases Active disease surveillance National X X X 4,118,187 and early warning system Prepositioning medical supplies and National X X X 4,118,187 kits to undertake coordinated rapid response Establishing an effective health infor- National X X X 2,470,912 mation system that provides accurate and timely health data for evidence planning and imple- mentation, supported by monitoring and evaluation Increasing cholera treatment Centre’s National X X X 8,236,375 in all regions Promoting participation in National X X X 4,118,187 improving public health at community level Ensure availability of essential medi- National X X X 22,007,180 cines, vaccines and commodities Establishing emergency National X X X 4,118,187 response services Ensuring immunization of all children National X X X 8,236,375 and pregnant women against the major child killer diseases sanctioned by the health authorities including campaigns Deploying more health care workers National X X X 5,765,462 that are competent on tasks and treat patients with dignity, respect and compassion Supporting fixed and National X X X 8,236,375 mobile clinics Sub-Total Health 82,132,713 Nutrition Surveillance and M&E operations National X X X 10,413,189 Mobile clinic and nutrition National X X X 20,826,378 rehabilitation vans Vitamin A supplementation National X X X 1,561,978 People living with HIV and AIDS National X X X 2,082,638 Annex 1: Drought Recovery Action Plan | 149 Deworming National X X X 1,561,978 Capacity building National X X X 15,619,783 Procurement of material National X X X 20,826,378 and rehabilitation Health promotion and National X X X 10,413,189 community mobilization Implementation and National X X X 20,826,378 operational support Sub-Total Nutrition 104,131,888 Education Expansion of learning spaces Regional X 19,200,000 Rapid teacher recruitment Regional X X 12,885,600 and training Distribution of learning materials Regional X X X 4,343,870 Community education committees Regional X X X 2,880,000 and child to child clubs Education sector coordination support Regional X X X 4,320,000 and data tracking costs Sub-Total Education 43,629,470 Food Security Improved food National X X 20,000,000 storage to reduce waste Improved food security National X 5,000,000 early warning systems Support for the development of National X X X 120,000 a national food security strategy Support for the development National X X X 240,000 of a national poverty reduction strategy Sub-Total Food Security 25,360,000 Livelihoods and Employment Support to Women and Youth National X X X 20,000,000.00 to engage in the renewable energy sector Support to Govt. Institutions to National X X X 1,900,000.00 improve and/or establish Labor Market Information Services Support to FGS and Federal National X X X 200,000.00 State Govt’s to coordinate the E&L sector Sub-Total Livelihoods and Employment 22,100,000 Social Protection and Safety Nets Injection of minimum capacity National X X 168,000 in MoHA and MoPIED Social protection policy and National X 1,515,000 framework, vulnerability analysis, capacity development of Government, communication Strategy 150 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Database inventory and analysis National X 100,000 Design of pilot incl. registry, targeting National X 5,000,000 methodology, transfer systems, monitoring systems, grievance mechanism, vetting Pilot of system in select geographic National X 6,400,000 areas (incl. urban and rural) targeting 100,000 Sub-Total Social Protection and Safety Nets 13,183,000 Gender Implementation of sex, age National X X X 4,300,000 disaggregated data (SADD) and gender analysis tools Gender-responsive governance and National X X X 4,400,000 promote women's participation and leadership Promote gender equality in disaster National X X X 3,500,000 risk reduction Women sustainable economic National X X X 28,500,000 and livelihoods development Gender-based Violence (GBV) National X X X 3,500,000 targeted responses Sub-Total Gender 44,200,000 Urban Development and Municipal Services Temporary shelter Regional X X 33,000,750 Permanent shelter Regional X X 61,018,100 Primary school construction Regional X X 4,787,980 Latrines Regional X X 1,443,100 School vouchers Regional X 22,869,411 Operating costs Regional X X 7,222,000 Mobile clinic Regional X 1,335,104 AWD/cholera treatment Regional X 480,000 Water trucks Regional X 2,855,230 Boreholes Regional X X 1,665,108 Sanitation Regional X X 4,296,751 Skills training & placement Regional X X 147,800,160 Capacity building for Regional X X 4,500,000 municipal government Sub-Total Urban Development and Municipal Services 293,273,694 Governance Expert Personnel National X 41,000,000 (+/- 250 staff for 24 months) Office equipment National X 2,200,000 Capacity building activities specific to National X 3,200,000 recovery and resilience Annex 1: Drought Recovery Action Plan | 151 Development of legislative framework National X 1,900,000 & related consultations Building leadership capacity within National X 800,000 the Somali Government on oversight and delivery against an accountability framework Establishment of Database Center; National X 2,700,000 strengthening statistical capacity and information management Building recovery program National X 6,000,000 management capacity within Federal and State Min of Planning (2 years) Access to finance for social National X X X 560,000 entrepreneurs and innovators Sub-Total Governance 58,360,000 Displacement Collection of sex- and National X X 2,000,000 age-disaggregated profile data of displaced and returning populations Monitoring costs (social cohesion, National X 500,000 displacement movements, etc.) IDP personal identity documentation National X 1,000,000 and civil registration Capacity building of state and local National X 1,000,000 authorities to promote recovery and resilience of IDP populations Support Community-based National X X 2,000,000 participatory planning processes Support for the participation in civic National X X 1,000,000 life, dispute resolution and peaceful co-existence in displacement affected areas Promotion of land tenure security National X 500,000 through improved policies and frameworks, including improved land use planning Development and adoption of federal National X 500,000 policy on internal displacement and reintegration of returnees Assessment of conditions for National X 500,000 safe return through area-based solutions analysis Collection of population profile data National X 1,000,000 on remote/rural Skills development and livelihoods National X X X 12,000,000 restoration 152 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Support for market access and National X X 1,000,000 strengthened value chains for partial returns (including those with family member remaining in urban areas) Support for establishment and National X 1,000,000 strengthening of local authorities Communication and sensitization National X 1,000,000 to support re/integration of IDPs and to enable participation in civic life, dispute resolution and peaceful co-existence. Establishment/strengthening National X 1,000,000 of transparent dispute resolution mechanism to manage land disputes Sub-Total Displacement 26,000,000 Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience Harmonization of existing policies and National X X 200,000 institutions Finalization of National Disaster National X X 125,000 Management Policy Enactment of DRM laws National X 100,000 DRM preparedness, contingency National X X 950,000 planning and risk financing fund Personnel and training at national and National X X X 275,000 subnational level and mainstreaming of DRM in development sectors Capacity building of national National X X X 350,000 DRM institutions - Equipment and facilities Basic national met services National X X 1,475,000 station connected to regional met agencies Emergency communication National X X 450,000 and control rooms Early warning information National X X X 200,000 management and channeling Drought cycle National X 175,000 management training Drought coordination mechanism National X X 150,000 Drought vulnerability assessment and National X X 250,000 risk reduction planning Livestock insurance policy National X X X 300,000 development Sub-Total Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience 5,000,000 Grand Total - Drought Recovery Action Plan 1,765,798,939 Annex 1: Drought Recovery Action Plan | 153 Annex 2: Acknowledgments The Somalia Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA) was developed through an intensive collaboration led by the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), through the Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development (MoPIED) in partnership with the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management (MoHADM), with technical and capacity support from the World Bank, UN and EU. The Ministry was supported by the DINA Coordination Team composed of representatives of the Government, the World Bank, UN and EU to ensure technical oversight and guidance. More than 180 sector experts from Federal Government of Somalia and Federal Member States (FMS), the World Bank, UN and EU collaborated intensively to complete the DINA, including the following sector ministries, departments and agencies: MoPIED, MoHADM, Ministry of Women and Human Rights Development, Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, Ministry of Health, and the Ministry of Energy & Water. The DINA team wishes to acknowledge the staff of the many local government offices and departments that provided data and support, without which the DINA would not have been complete. Support for the assessment was provided by a team of technical experts from the European Union, the World Bank and the United Nations System—UNDP, UNICEF, UN Women, UNOCHA, UNHCR, UNOPS, UNHABITAT, ILO, WFP, FAO, WHO and IOM as well as other partners including NRC and BRICS, DFiD, ADESO, ACU and the Somalia NGO Consortium. The Federal Government of Somalia would like to acknowledge the financial support of the European Union, which made this assessment possible. This DINA was undertaken with strategic guidance from DINA Executive Committee, composed of His Excellency, Gamal Mohamed Hassan (FGS-MoPIED), Hugh Riddell (WB), Peter de Clercq (UN) and Ambassador Veronique Lorenzo (EU). The Joint Management Team for this exercise consisted of Abdikadir Adan (MoPIED), Muse Mohamed (MoPIED), Abukar Sanei (MoPIED), Mohamed Moalim (MoHADM), Abdirisaq Ahmed Mahamed (South West State), Zubayr Omer Ali (Puntland), Abdullahi Omar Aden (Galmudug), Abdiwelli Bariare Fara (Hirshabelle), Osman Hassan Abdi (Jubaland), Ayaz Parvez, Puteri Watson, Francis Samson Nkoka, Matthias Mayr, Alexander Agosti, Sajid Anwar (World Bank), Sultan Hajiyev, Usman Qazi, Krishna Vatsa (UN), Pauline Gibourdel and Tom Hockley (EU). The core technical coordination team for this assessment consisted of Nadim Saghir, Tariro Tserayi, Allen Baumgardner- Zuzik, Shahina Zahir, Hodan Hassan, Moses Mung’oni, George Griffin, Eugenia Konya, Chalida Chararnsuk (World Bank), Albert Abou Hamra, Monica Trujillo, and Cecilia Aipira (UN). Ipsos and Courage Services Inc. provided remote sensing and survey data support. Special thanks to those who provided overall support to the DINA process, including Abdi Dirshe (MoPIED), George Conway, Sofie Garde Thomle (UN), Bella Bird and Bernice Von Bronkhorst (World Bank). The FGS was further represented by: Hussein Ismail Muhumed, Abdimajid Abdi Moallim, Abdirahim Ibrahim Sh. Heile, Adan Osman Sh. Hassan, Amina Mohamed Yousuf, Dahir Mohamed Nur, Hussein Ismail Muhumed, Ali Gaal Gabow, Mohamed Abdi Shire, Mohamud Hassan Elmi, Mustafe Aden Ibrahim, Abdirahman Ibrahim Mahamed, Abdiaziz A Siyad, Abdiqani Muse Farah, Abdullahi Alas, Africa Nasir, Ayan Esse, Mahdi Abdikarim Daud, Mohamed Gelle, Nimco Mohamud, Zakaria Hassan and Koshin Garane. The FMS were further represented by: Galmudug Regional State: Abdihakim Ali Guure, Ayaan Hersi Mohamud, Abdirashid Mohamed Abdi, Keyf Mohamed Osman, Abdi Hussein Dhubow, Gulled Osman Gulled, Yahye Osman Geedi, Abdi nasir Ahmed Wali, Najmo Hersi Oogle; Jubaland Regional State: Abdishukri Arab Omar, Abdullahi Ali Farah, Mohamed Aden Yussuf, Mohamed Abdirahman Ismail, Noor Shafe Abdullahi, Jeylani Maxamed Dheere, Abdullahi Bashir Maalim; Puntland Regional State: Mohamud Abdilahi Yusuf; Hirshabele Regional State: Mahamed 154 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Abdi Abdilahi, Nuur Siyaad Gacal, Dr. Hassan Ahmed Osman, Mohamed Abdikariim Sh. Ahmed, Yuusuf Guuleed Ali, Aamin Mukhtar Ahmed, Najma Ali Mocow, Hodan Abdi Abdillahi, Abdiwelli Bariare Farah; South West Regional State: Mowlid Hassan Sheikh, Abdirisak Ahmed Mohamed, Khaalid Mahamud Abdala, Adan Omar Hassan, Abdikarin Abdule Yussuf, Adan Abdirahman Ahmed, Ibrahim Moallim Ali, Adullahi Habib Muktar, Abdukadir Mohamed Ahmed, Mahamud Sh. Maaxi. The following DINA team members contributed towards the drafting of the sector and cross-cutting theme reports annexes and provided valuable inputs pertaining to various sector and cross cutting issues: Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crops: Gianni Zanini, Aamin Mukhtar Ahmed, Abdishukri Arab Omar, Abdukadir Mohamed Ahmed, Mohamed Abdi Shire, Mohamed Adam Hassan, Suleiman Mohamed Salah, Xil. Said Hassan Ciid, Abdi Aden Mohamed, Abdullahi Farah Ahmed, George Mvula, Julius Mwangi, Flavian Muthusi, Reddy Laxman, Sergio Innocente, Abdull Qadir, Francis Samson Nkoka, Stephen Paul D’Alessandro. Agriculture – Livestock & Fisheries: Khalid Saeed, Saeed Bancie, John Purvis, Abdikarin Abdule Yussuf, Abdirahim Ibrahim Sh. Heile, Abdirahman Dr. Mohamed Cadde Hashi, Abdirashid Mohamed Abdi, Abdullahi Ali Farah, Adan Omar Hassan, Ayaan Hersi Mohamud, Dr. Hassan Ahmed Osman, Mohamed Aden Yussuf, Mustafe Aden Ibrahim, Nuur Siyaad Gacal, Xil. Sheikh Nor Mohamed Hassan, Erastus Mbugua, Simon Diffey, Abukar Yusuf, Sophycate Njue, Esayas Nigatu Gebremeskel, Sergio Innocente, Laxman Reddy, Francesco Del Re Water Supply and Sanitation: Tesfaye Bekalu, Abdimajid Abdi Moallim, Omar Haji Mohamed Shurie, Gulled Osman Gulled, Ibrahim Moallim Ali, Noor Shafe Abdullahi, Yuusuf Guuleed Ali, Omar Khayre, Flavian Muthusi, Chris Print, Abdull Qadir, Hrachya Sargsyan, Shukri Dass, Dominick Revell de Waal Transport: Chikondi Clara Nsusa-Chilipa, Magda Jurkowiecka, Ali Gaal Gabow, Shukri Dass Environment, Clean Energy & Natural Resource Management: Tracy Hart, Gulled Osman Gulled, Flavian Muthusi, Neil Marsland, Saleem Ullah, Abdul Qadir, Zubair Ezzat, Abdi Zeila, Dominick Revell de Waal Health and Nutrition: Noel Chisaka, Abdirisak Ahmed Mohamed, Adan Abdirahman Ahmed, Adan Osman Sh. Hassan, Keyf Mohamed Osman, Mohamed Abdirahman Ismail, Mohamed ABDUL Kariim Sh. Ahmed, Kelsi Kriitmaa, Daniel Molla, Abukar Yusuf, Ali Dowelbait Ali, Nur Ali, Dr. Humayun Rizwan, Dr. Debesay Mulugeta, Delphine Dechaux, Pramila Ghimire, Bernard O. Olayo, Mary Stella Wanjiru Kimani Education: Hema Vinod, Jairus Ligoo, Mariam Abkow, Viola Muhangi, Neven Knezevic, Hussein Sedow, Pramila Ghimire Urban Development and Municipal Services: Makiko Watanabe, Claude Andre Nadon, Shukri Dass, Henri Stalder, Francesco Tonnarelli, Zishan Karim, Matthias Mayr Private Sector Impacts and Role in Recovery: Shahrzad Mobasher Fard, Ilias Dirie Social Protection & Safety Nets: Danielle Trotter, Ruby Khan, Sarah Khan, Abdiaziz Nur, Ali Noor, Deka Salad, Degan Ali, Seb Fouquet, Larosa Massimo, Pauline Gibourdel, Abdullahi Hashi Ali, Mohamed Mo’alim, Ridwaan Abdi, Abdikadir Adan/Abdullahi Alas, Abdirahman Abdi/Jamaale Ahmed, Ayan A. Essa, Dalmar Hassan, Maryan Mohamed, Deeq Suleyman Yusuf, Martijn Goddeeris, Abdirahman Farah, Mohamed Keynan, Lansana Wonneh, Anou Borrey, Doel Mukerjee, Francesco Del Re, Issack Hussein Hassan, Sarah Khan, Gavin Lim, Philip Wardle, Maniza B. Naqvi, Samantha de Silva, Zaineb Majoka, Asha Sawyer, Hiba Abuswaid Annex 2: Acknowledgments | 155 Food Security: Daniel Molla, Ridwaan Abdi, Abdullahi Farah Ahmed, Ahmed Abdullahi, Francesco Del Re, Mulugeta Shubru, Lansana Wonneh, Selene Biffi, Amin Malik Livelihoods and Employment: Joseph Connolly, Koshin Korfa Garane, Abdirahman Mohamed, Conisia Shumba Gender: Nasra Islan, Fadumo Dayib, Shipra Bose, Beatrice Teya, Anou Borrey, Jebbeh Forster, Pauline Magawi, Verena Phipps, Muhammad Arif, Rahel Steinbach, Paula Tarvainen Governance and Conflict: Lorraine Reuter, Tom Hockley, Abdullahi Omar Aden, Osman Hassan Abdi, Mohamoud Abdullahi, Mohamoud Sheikh Maaxi, Jebbeh Forster, Jos De La Haye, Tsedeye Girma, Jean Lokenga, Matthias Mayr, Paul Francis, Gavin Lim, Matthijs Zeilstra Displacement: Verena Phipps, Adullahi Habib Muktar, Hannah Curwen, Jennifer Pro, Ahmed Omar Ibrahim, Sam Grundy, Abdulkadir Ali, Issack Hassan, Tsedeye Girma, Abdulkadir Ali, Gavin Lim Macroeconomic Impact: Shahrzad Mobasher Fard, Abdulqafar Abdullahi, Abukar Sanei, Africa Nasir, John Randa, Catherine Mwende Ngumbau Human Impact: Monica Trujillo and Shahina Zahir Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience: Moses Mung’oni, Krishna Vatsa, Amina Mohamed Yousuf, Dahir Mohamed Nur, Khaalid Mahamud Abdala, Maryan Qasim Ahmed, Mohamed Moalin, Mohomud Hassan Elmi, Giorgia Rega, Hannah Curwen, Jennifer Pro, Sam Grundy, Ridwaan Abdi, Beatrice Teya, Tsedeye Girma, Zubair Ezzat, Francis Samson Nkoka, Sajid Anwar, Tariro Tserayi, Luis Alton Communications: Abdullahi Alas (MoPied), Zirra Banu, Hassan Hirsi (WB), Keelin Fitzgerald, Aleksandra Risteska, Inga Petersen, David Jensen and Marion Planque (UN). Many thanks to Utz Pape and Gonzalo Nunes of the World Bank Poverty Global Practice for their valuable input. Photo credits: UNSOM, UNDP Somalia, UNICEF Somalia and IOM. There are many others who contributed to the DINA who have not been mentioned here. Their contributions are duly acknowledged. The DINA team acknowledges the people interviewed for the insights they provided to the team as well as the staff of the many local government offices that provided data and support without which the DINA would not have been possible. 156 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment © UNSOM