For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS/CPS Data Country: Tajikistan CAS/CPS Year: FY14 CAS/CPS Period: FY15 – FY18 CLR Period: FY15 – FY18 Date of this review: April 29, 2019 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Good Good 3. Executive Summary i. This independent review of the World Bank Group’s Completion and Learning Review (CLR) covers the period of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS), FY15-FY18. In addition to the CLR, this review is based on the original CPS approved by the Board on May 14, 2014 and the Performance and Learning Review (PLR) dated May 28, 2017 which updated aspects of the original CPS. ii. Tajikistan is a low-income country with a GNI income per capita of $990 in 2017. Recession in Russia lowered remittances to Tajikistan beginning in 2014. The government responded with active fiscal policy to mitigate the impact on economic growth, which slowed marginally and has since picked up with rebounding remittances and public investment. GDP grew at annual average of 6.8 percent during the CPS period. The banking sector was particularly affected, with non-performing loans reaching 39 percent in 2017 from 10 percent in 2013. 1 . The fiscal deficit went from an annual average of 2.5 percent during 2000-2014 to 9.8 in 2016. Public debt as percentage of the GDP increased to 50 percent in 2017. Extreme poverty, as measured by the international poverty line of $1.9 a day fell from 54 percent 1999 to 5 percent in 2015. The Gini coefficient increased from 0.31 in 2009 to 0.34 in 2015, with the rural areas driving the increase. iii. The government’s National Development Strategy (NDS), 2006-2015, aimed at generating sustainable growth, improving public administration, and developing human resources. The CPS original design was broadly aligned with NDS through its three focus areas: (1) strengthening the role of the private sector; (2) social inclusion; and, (3) promoting regional connectivity. The CPS design also included cross-cutting areas in gender, governance, and climate change. The CPS sought to help Tajikistan transition to a new growth model. iv. At the start of the CPS period, total IDA commitments were $187 million, comprising 13 Investment Project Financing (IPF) operations, including three Additional Financing. During the CPS period, 14 operations were approved, including six Additional Financing and two regional operations, with total commitments of $429 million, higher than the total planned commitments in the CPS and PLR update of $265 million as a result of significant increases in IDA 17 and IDA 18. 1 National Bank of Tajikistan: http://www.nbt.tj/upload/iblock/4a3/december_2018.pdf CLR Reviewed by: Panel Reviewed by: CLR Review Manager/Coordinator Luis Alvaro Sanchez Albert Martinez Jeff Chelsky Consultant, IEGEC Consultant, IEGEC Manager, IEGEC Albert Martinez Lourdes Pagaran Consultant, IEGEC CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC For Official Use Only CLR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group Sixty percent of new IDA commitments went to the Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project ($225.7 million). Several planned operations, including three Development Policy Operations (DPOs) were dropped due to a difficult macroeconomic environment, and two IPF operations were cancelled following a change in IDA financial terms. During the CPS period, trust funds commitments for $33 million were approved covering 11 activities in support of IDA financed operations. IFC made net commitments of $25.8 million in long term loans of which 90 percent were in financial markets. Average outstanding commitments under the short-term trade finance guarantee amounted to $1.5 million. About 60 percent of IFC investment was in the second largest bank, followed by several investments in microfinance institutions. v. IEG rates CPS development outcome as Moderately Satisfactory. Of the 22 objectives, twelve were either mostly achieved or achieved and ten were either partially achieved or not achieved. The cost of complying with business regulation dropped, although Tajikistan continues to rank the lowest in the Central Asia region per the 2019 Doing Business report. Tax e-filing has exceeded expectations, but taxpayer satisfaction with new procedures was not assessed. There was progress in increasing access to finance for MSMEs, with the Credit Bureau facilitating lending but not with the collateral agency which was launched only in February 2019. Progress in increasing the share of small farmers production sold in the market was limited. Critical efforts to improve the financial situation of Barki Tajik did not gain traction. Good progress was made in expanding the number of beneficiaries with water and sanitation services in the Dushanbe areas and increasing the coverage of the social safety net program. However, updated information on the share of the poor enrolled in higher education institutions is not available. Satisfaction of road users in selected segments connecting with other Central Asia countries showed improvement, and progress in increasing the volume in cross-border trade exceeded expectations. Progress was made on gender empowerment and helping households prepare for climate change through better water management practices; but work to improve governance fell below expectations. vi. On balance, the Bank Group performance is rated as Good. The CPS sought to help Tajikistan transition to a new growth model. However, the program was not selective with 22 CPS objectives that did not match the level of ambition of the program. A difficult macroeconomic environment arising in part from the sharp drop in remittances in 2014 and the increase in IDA terms to 100 percent credit in 2015 affected implementation. The World Bank dropped the DPO series and limited improvements in the investment climate impaired IFC plans to scale-up engagement. The Bank Group shifted IDA commitments to infrastructure projects in line with government preferences, while increasing commitments above the amounts planned for in the CPS financed by higher IDA17 and IDA18 allocations. Tajikistan’s performance at exit compares favorably with ECA region and Bank-wide averages, although risks to development outcomes are higher. The share of projects at risk during the CPS period was higher than the ECA region and the Bank-wide averages, although lower than its comparators when weighted by commitment size. The IFC and the World Bank worked together most notably to support improvements in the business environment and access to credit. The World Bank collaborated effectively with development partners in areas such as energy, water, and governance. INT received ten complaints and launched three investigations which all closed as substantiated. The PLR should have been undertaken much earlier to adjust to the changed environment. Notwithstanding the timing of the PLR, the Bank Group should have taken the opportunity to retrofit the CPS objectives in terms of level of ambition and expected results. vii. The CLR provided eight lessons. IEG agrees with the lessons and highlights the following: (i) overambitious objectives and/or under-emphasis of institutional impacted the success of the CPS program; (ii) with greater ownership and commitment, the government can (and does) implement “transformational projects” and achieve significant results; and, (iii) uneven governance standards, weak administration capacities, and inadequate internal review practices are constraints to swift implementation and need to be anticipated and managed proactively. For Official Use Only CLR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group viii. IEG adds two lessons: • A country program should identify objectives that match the level of ambition of the program and its intended results and impact. When designing a results framework, it is necessary to go beyond listing outcomes and setting baselines and targets. In the case of Tajikistan, CPS objectives were akin to indicators, which made for a cumbersome stocktaking of the delivery of results and did not fully reflect program impact. The PLR should have taken the opportunity to retrofit the results framework by clarifying the results chain and bringing together related indicators around common program objectives. • Political economy analysis of the drivers of policy reform is necessary early on to accompany implementation of ambitious goals. The CPS committed to support the government to move Tajikistan towards a higher and more sustainable growth path. When the pace of reform did not meet expectations, political economy analysis on the drivers of policy reform should have led the Bank Group to adjust and focus its engagement. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence between Country Context and Country Program. Tajikistan is heavily dependent on remittances and isolated from major global markets. The lack of a conducive investment climate has meant limited opportunities for diversification, relatively few job opportunities and low employment rates, especially among youth. Reducing dependence on remittances has and remains a challenge to improve the resilience. The government’s National Development Strategy (NDS), 2006-2015, aimed at generating sustainable growth, improving public administration, and developing human resources. The updated National Development Strategy to 2030 maintained focus on building institutional capacity, human capital and the real economy (investment climate, productive employment, and finance). The original CPS design was broadly aligned with NDS and its update through its three focus areas: (1) strengthening the role of the private sector; (2) social inclusion; and, (3) promoting regional connectivity. The CPS design also includes cross-cutting areas in gender, governance, and climate chance. The CPS sought to help Tajikistan transition to a new growth model. A DPO series was to support “stretch’’ 2 goals in support of a new model of growth. 2. Relevance of Design. The CPS sought to support the country’s ambitious goal of transitioning to a new growth model. However, CPS objectives which were akin to indicators did not fully capture the program’s ambition and expected results. While this approach enhanced the likelihood of achieving targets it weakened the results chains linking program measures to higher- level development goals and the strategic direction of the program. During CPS implementation, the difficult macroeconomic driven by the sharp drop in remittances in 2014 and expansive fiscal policy response prevented moving forward with the DPO series. The Progress and Learning Review (PLR) introduced only marginal changes to the CPS design and did not address the fundamental shortcomings of the results framework. Selectivity 3. The CPS program was not sufficiently selective. It comprised 22 objectives covering a wide range of areas. However, most of the CPS objectives were formulated as results indicators which should have been grouped to form a more coherent organizing framework consistent with the ambition of the program. The number of projects increased during the CPS period, including two 2 “Stretch” goals included: expanding credit for the commercialization of agriculture and modernization of the banking sector, increasing public trust and savings; increasing the reliability of the electricity supply and the financial viability of Barki Tajik; and boosting regional connectivity. For Official Use Only CLR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group regional projects, in an environment of constrained implementation capacity that was clearly recognized. Alignment 4. The CPS program is aligned with the twin goals. Focus area I seeks to create favorable conditions for investment and job creation, including in rural areas where a significant share of the poor live and inequality has been increasing. Focus area II is directly relevant to alleviating poverty through the expansion of targeted social benefits, increasing access to water and sanitation services, and to enhancing social inclusion through greater access to higher education for the population at the lower 40 percent of the income distribution. Focus area III (“ promoting regional connectivity”) seeks to foster trade and thus enhance economic opportunity. The cross-cutting areas are aligned with inclusion through attention to gender. The objective of improving access to data on poverty and employment helps raise awareness of poverty trends and inform policy making. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 5. This review follows the structure of the CPS, PLR and CLR; and uses the terminology of the IEG-OPCS Shared Approach. Focus Area I: Strengthening the role of the private sector 6. Focus Area I had nine objectives. The objectives were supported through the following operations: the Private Sector Competitiveness project (FY12), the Tax Administration Project (FY13), the Agriculture Commercialization Project (FY14) and its Additional Financing (FY18), and the Energy Loss Reduction project (FY05). Contributing ASA included: Tajikistan Tax E-filing Impact Evaluation (FY17), Financial Sector Policy Dialogue (FY17), Strengthening Bank regulation and supervision (FY15), Legal Framework for Secured Transactions (FY15), the Developing Insurance Market (FY15), the ASA Agriculture Sector Update (FY15), and TA Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue (FY15). Support was also provided through the IFC AS Tajikistan Business Regulation and Investment and Policy Project (FY13), IFC’s Tajikistan Infrastructure Investment (FY18), and IFC Financial Markets Infrastructure (FY19). 7. Objective 1: Average cost to comply with business regulation decreased: Baseline: $470 (2012) Target: $250 (2018). Using the Doing Business (DB) 2018, the CLR reports that the cost of starting a business was $214 as of 2017/2018, below the $250 target. However, starting a business is only one component of the cost of complying with business regulation. The November 2018 ISR for the Private Sector Project reports a drop in the time spent on business registration to 5 days (September 2018) from 24 days (July 2012). Additional information from the Tajikistan DB 2019 informs that the distance from the frontier for the overall business environment was reduced from 51 percent in DB 2015 to 43 percent in DB 2019. On balance, because the objective itself is significantly broader than the available evidence, while the available evidence does show important progress Objective 1 is Mostly Achieved. 8. Objective 2: Increased number of entrepreneurs using electronic services to comply with business regulations, particularly tax reporting and permit applications. Baseline: 2,100 (2012) Target: 6,000 (2018). The November 2018 ISR for the Tax Administration Project reports that 99 percent of legal entities and 78 percent of individual entrepreneurs filed taxes electronically; however, the ISR does not track the numbers of e-filers. Information from a 2017 Aide Memoire of the project reports that over 30,000 legal entities were e-filing taxes in 2016. In addition, an internal Aide Memoire on the project notes that 31,176 legal entities and 18,816 entrepreneurs used electronic services as of March 2018. Objective 2 is Achieved. 9. Objective 3: Primary performance index (Taxpayers satisfaction survey, Tax Committee, Republic of Tajikistan). Baseline: 47 percent (2017) Target: 70 percent (2018). The For Official Use Only CLR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group CLR reports that the taxpayer’s satisfaction survey has not been conducted and has been confirmed by IEG. Objective 3 is Not Achieved. 10. Objective 4: Increased access to finance for MSME (measured in the number of loans provided), of which 80% are well performing. Baseline: 54,000 (2012) Target: 200,000 (2018) The Completion Report for the IFC AS Transformation for Micro Finance Institutions in Tajikistan project reports that there are 214,000 loans outstanding with 3.5% of the loan values outstanding 90+ days overdue as of March 2018. Objective 4 is Achieved. 11. Objective 5: New loans using collateral agency. Baseline: 0 Target: 4,878. The collateral registry became operational in February 2019. However, no new loans were extended using the collateral registry during the CPS period. Objective 5 is Not Achieved 12. Objective 6: New loans using Credit Bureau. Baseline: 0 MSMEs Target: 128,000 MSMEs. The Q2 FY19 supervision report for the IFC AS Financial Market Infrastructure Project reports that the project helped 690,000 individuals and MSMEs access $345 million using the information provided by the credit bureau. Objective 6 is Achieved. 13. Objective 7: Number of small farmers reporting increased marketed surplus of selected agricultural products. Baseline: 0 (2013) Target: 4,000 (2018). The December 2018 ISR for the Agricultural Commercialization Project reports that 2,650 farmer beneficiaries had improved commercial activity. The CLR identifies improved commercial activity with increased marketed surplus, which is consistent with the background project documentation. Objective 7 is Partially Achieved. 14. Objective 8: Improve financial performance of Barki Tajik: Baseline: Cash collected from electricity sales is about two times lower than short term cost recovery requirements (2013) Target: Cash collected from electricity sales are equal or above short-term cost recovery levels (2018). The CLR reports that cash collection from electricity sales only equal 25% of cost recovery levels. However, IEG could not verify this information. The ICRR for the Energy Loss Reduction project reports that as of November 2014 electricity tariffs remained significantly below cost. The 2018 Systematic Country Diagnostic refers to estimates that put the average tariff at 55 percent below cost recovery. Objective 8 is Not Achieved. 15. Objective 9: Barki Tajik transparency and accountability: Baseline: audit reports for 2011 and 2013 issued with disclaimer of auditor’s opinion (2013); Target: audit reports issued with qualified opinion (2015-18) The audit reports from 2015-2017 have been published with the auditor’s qualified opinion (Barki Tajik Audit Reports). Objective 9 is Achieved. 16. Focus Area I is rated as Moderately Satisfactory. Of the nine objectives, five were achieved or mostly achieved, and four were partially achieved or not achieved. Information from the Doing Business (DB) suggests improvements in the cost of doing business during the CPS period. Progress was made in the adoption of tax e-filing; however, taxpayer satisfaction with the new procedures has not been measured. Progress was made in new loans using the Credit Bureau and in increasing access to finance for MSMEs, but new loans using the collateral agency was not achieved. Progress on increasing the number of small farmers with marketed surplus was partial. The critical agenda on improving the financial situation of Barki Tajik did not gain traction, although progress was made in improving transparency in reporting. Focus Area II: Social inclusion 17. Focus Area II had three objectives. The objectives were supported by the Higher Education Project (FY15) and the following ASA: Higher Education Sector Study (ASA) (FY15) and Governance in Service Delivery 3 (FY16). Municipal Infrastructure Development Project (FY06); Dushanbe Water Supply II (FY11), including AF (FY15). Social Safety Net Strengthening project (FY11) and its AF (FY18), and through the Tajikistan Review of Social Safety Nets Reform (ASA) (FY15). 18. Objective 10: Increased share of poor students (bottom 40 percent) in the overall higher education institutions’ enrollment (HBS): Baseline: 13 percent (2007) Target: 17 percent For Official Use Only CLR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group (2018). The CLR reports that 23 percent of enrolled students in tertiary education in 2017 were from the bottom 40% percent based on a PSIA/ Poverty Diagnostic survey. However, IEG could not verify this information. Two Bank reports on higher education indicate that 16% of students enrolled were from the poorest 40% (October 2014). 3 However, no information is available for 2018. The ongoing Higher Education Project does not track this indicator. Objective 10 is Not Verified 19. Objective: 11: The number of beneficiaries provided with improved water supply and sanitation service in urban settings. Baseline: 0 (2013) Target: 847,000 (2018). The November 2018 ISR for the Dushanbe Water Supply II Project reports that there were 895,0000 beneficiaries of improved water utility performance and water supply services in selected areas of Dushanbe as of March 2018. Coverage of improved water supply and sanitation services has expanded mostly in the Dushanbe area. Objective 11 is Achieved. 20. Objective 12: Share of total population covered by targeted social benefits: Baseline: 23 percent (2013) Target: 100 percent (2018). The February 2019 ISR for the Social Safety Net Strengthening project reports that the share of the total population covered by social net programs reached 81 percent as of November 2018. Objective 12 is Mostly Achieved 21. Focus Area II is rated as Moderately Satisfactory. Two objectives were achieved or mostly achieved, and one was not achieved. Substantial progress was made in expanding the number of beneficiaries with water and sanitation services in the Dushanbe area. Expansion of the social net program has reached 81 percent of the target. However, updated information on the share of poor students enrolled in higher education institutions is not available. Focus Area III: Promoting Regional Connectivity 22. Focus Area III had two objectives. The objectives were supported through the Central Asia Road links (FY15) and the ASA Multi-modal Transport Study (FY16). 23. Objective 13. Satisfaction of road users (beneficiaries) with the improvements along completed road sections under the Regional Central Asia Road Links Program – Phase 2 Baseline: 0 percent (2015) Target: 30 percent (2018). As of November 2018, the satisfaction of road users with the improvements along completed road sections was 76%. Achieved 24. Objective 14. Volume of freight through selected Regional Central Asia Road Links Program- Phase 2 international border crossing points. Baseline: 359,838 (‘000 tons) (2015) Target: 410,000 (‘000 tons) (2018). The November 2018 ISR for the FY15 project reports that total volume of freight through Guliston/Kyzyl-Bel and Madaniyat/Kairagach, Patar border crossing points was 371,000 tons per year. Additional information from the Tajik Ministry of Transport indicates that freight volume has increased to 596,076 tons in 2018. The opening of the Patar border crossing point with Uzbekistan led to a faster increase in freight volume that had been anticipated. Objective 14 is Achieved. 25. Focus Area III is rated Satisfactory. Both two objectives were achieved. Satisfaction with improvement in the road network connecting Northern and Southern Tajikistan was achieved. The volume of freight along international crossing points, particularly the Patar crossing point with Uzbekistan was also achieved. Focus Area IV: Cross-pillar priorities 26. Focus Area IV had eight objectives. The objectives were supported through the following operations: Land Registration & Cadastre System for Sustainable Agriculture Project (LRCSP) ( FY05); Health Services Improvement (FY13); Tajikistan Second Public Employment for Sustainable Agriculture and Water Resource Management project (PAMP) II (FY13), including AF ( FY15); the Environmental Land Management and Rural Livelihoods project (FY 13), Public Finance Management Modernization Project II (FY15) and the Implementation & Capacity Building of e- 3 Higher Education Study (FY15) and Governance in Service Delivery 3 (FY16). For Official Use Only CLR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group Procurement project (FY15). Supporting ASAs included the following: Central Asia Energy and Water Development Program (FY15), Agriculture Sector Update (FY15); Tajikistan PEFA Assessment 2017 (FY18); Implementation of the Governance Checklist TA (FY15); Central Asia Poverty, Equity and Shared Prosperity Work (FY15); and Program to Support Statistical Capacity in Eastern Europe and CIS Countries (FY18). 27. Objective 15: Increased gender empowerment through increased access to employment opportunities, land use rights, mother and child health. Baseline: 86,000 (2013) Of which: employment 22,200; land certificates 63,800; micronutrients and nutrition education for pregnant women – 0 Target: 258,200 (2018) Of which: employment 77,200; land certificates 136,000; Micronutrients and nutrition education for pregnant women: 45,000. The December 2018 ISR for the Public Employment for Sustainable Agriculture Water Resource Management project (PAMP-II) reports that 28,443 beneficiaries of public works programs have signed labor contracts, of which 6,845 were women. In addition, the ICRR for the Land Registration and Cadastre System for Sustainable Agriculture project (LRCSP) reports that 152,851 women were issued land use certificates as of December 2015. The December 2018 ISR for the Tajikistan Health Services Improvement project reports that 140,382 mothers received counselling on nutrition. All targets were met except for the employment target. Objective 15 is Mostly Achieved. 28. Objective 16: The number of households supported to adopt sustainable, climate resilient, water and land management practices. Baseline: 0 (2013) Target: 21,000 (2018). Of which women: 40% (2018). As of May 2018, 53,000 households have adopted climate change and sustainable land management practices, of which 48% of project beneficiaries were female. Objective 16 is Achieved. 29. Objective 17: Number of users provided with water efficient systems for productive or domestic uses. Baseline: 0 (2013) Target: 514,000 (2018). The December 2018 ISR for Public Employment for Sustainable Agriculture Water Resource Management project (PAMP-II) reports that 1.6 million people were beneficiaries of increased food production because of improved irrigation or drainage infrastructure as of November 2018. Objective 17 is Achieved. 30. Objective 18: Oversight of aggregate fiscal risk from other public sector entities is strengthened. Baseline: PEFA 2012 score for PI-9 4 C+ (2012) Target: PEFA 2018 score for PI-9 no less than B+ (2018). The 2017 PEFA report rates PI-10 (former PI-9) as C due to having non- mandatory public disclosure of State-Owned Enterprises’ financial statements. However, the two PEFA score are not comparable. When PEFA 2017 calculated its ratings to reflect 2012 criteria, it assigned PI-10 a rating of B+ rather than C; however, PEFA 2017 noted that the higher score does not result from improvements but rather from a faulty rating in the 2012 PEFA. Objective 18 is Not Achieved. 31. Objective 19: Public Procurement Portal and complaint handling system established and functioning. Baseline: No (2013) Target: Yes (2018). The CLR reports that the Unified Public Procurement Portal (http://zakupki.gov.tj) is enhanced and functioning. However, the on-line complaint system has not yet been developed, although the process has been initiated. Objective 19 is Partially Achieved. 32. Objective 20: All public bidding opportunities and contract award results are published. Baseline: 0 percent (2013) Target: 100 percent (2018). The CLR reports that notification of tenders and contract awards are published in the portal but only apply to the Public Procurement Agency’s activity. In addition, the CLR reports that 17 out of 37 qualified procurement entities conduct procurement in e-format. The portal (http://zakupki.gov.tj/ref/registry/) indicates 21 qualified procurement entities. The latest annual procurement report of the Public Procurement Agency shows that only 72% of accredited procuring entities were covered in the 2017 and the individual reports are not published. Additional information from the PEFA 2017 report on P-24 (access to procurement 4 PEFA 2012 indicator PI-9 measures “Oversight of aggregate fiscal risk from other public sector entities.” For Official Use Only CLR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group information) shows a rating of B which is unchanged from the PEFA 2012, using similar 2012 criteria. Objective 20 is Partially Achieved. 33. Objective 21. Number of WBG projects and IFC advisory services that are implemented and monitored in collaboration with CSOs/NGOs is increased. Baseline: 37 percent (2013) Target: 100 percent (2018). There is a disconnect between the objective that refers to number of projects and its indicator which is measured in percentages, which seems more relevant, although it is unclear to what the percentages refer. The CLR reports that 100 percent of the projects approved during the CPS period included citizen engagement mechanisms. As to implementation and monitoring, however, the CLR notes the need to be mindful of the depth of the mechanism for community engagement as the FY17-FY18 projects have adopted weaker mechanisms. Efforts are underway to further deepen Citizen engagement, including the development of solid monitoring and feedback mechanisms during implementation. Partial progress has been made in introducing monitoring frameworks with CSO participation to better link beneficiaries with service providers. The CLR does not report on IFC Advisory Services compliance with CSOs/NGO collaboration. Objective 21 is Partially Achieved. 34. Objective 22: Improved access to data on poverty and employment. Baseline: No poverty and unemployment rates reported (2013) Target: Poverty and unemployment rates reported in a quarterly moving average (2016). The Tajik Agency on Statistics (TajStat) reports on annual but not on a quarterly basis as intended as of 2018 two years after the target date. TajStat does not yet provide access to the micro-data of the Household Budget Surveys to parties other than the World Bank. Objective 22 is Partially Achieved. 35. Focus Area IV is rated Moderately Unsatisfactory. Of the eight objectives, three were achieved or mostly achieved; and five were either partially achieved or not achieved. There was progress in increasing gender empowerment in access to land and health services and to building more resilient and efficient water management systems. However, there was limited progress in establishing a more transparent and accountable procurement system and making timely information available on poverty and labor markets. No progress was made improving the oversight of aggregate fiscal risks from other public-sector entities. Overall Assessment and Rating 36. IEG rates CPS development outcome as Moderately Satisfactory. Of the 22 Objectives, 12 were either mostly achieved or achieved, and 10 were either partially achieved or not achieved. In Focus Area I (strengthening the role of the private sector), information from the DB suggests improvements in the cost of doing business during the CPS period. Progress was made in the adoption of tax e-filing; however, taxpayer satisfaction with the new taxation procedures has not been measured. New loans using the Credit Bureau and access to finance for MSMEs were achieved, but new loans using the collateral agency was not achieved. Progress was limited in increasing the number of small farmers with marketed surplus. The critical agenda on improving the financial situation of Barki Tajik did not gain traction, although transparency in reporting has been achieved. In Focus Area II (social inclusion), substantial progress was made in expanding the number of beneficiaries with water and sanitation services in urban areas and in expanding the social safety net program. Updated information on the share poor population enrolled in higher education institutions is not available. In Focus Area III (regional connectivity), satisfaction of users with completed road segments connecting Tajikistan to Central Asian countries was positive and the expected increase in volume of cross-border trade exceeded expectations. In Focus Area IV (cross-pillar priorities), gains were made increasing gender empowerment and helping prepare for climate change through better water management practices; but work on governance fell below expectations. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Focus Area I: Strengthening the role of the private sector Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Objective 1: Average cost to comply with business Achieved Mostly Achieved regulation decreased For Official Use Only CLR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group Objective 2: Number of entrepreneurs using electronic services to comply with business regulations, particularly tax Achieved Achieved reporting and permit applications Objective 3: Primary performance index (Taxpayers Not Verifiable Not Achieved satisfaction survey, Tax Committee, RT) Objective 4: Increased access to finance for MSME (measured in the number of loans provided), of which 80% Achieved Achieved are well performing Objective 5: New loans using collateral agency Not Achieved Not Achieved Objective 6: New loans using Credit Bureau: Achieved Achieved Objective 7: Number of small farmers reporting increased Partially Achieved Partially Achieved marketed surplus of selected agricultural products Objective 8: Improve financial performance of Barki Tajik Not Achieved Not Achieved Objective 9: Barki Tajik transparency and accountability Achieved Achieved Focus Area II: Social inclusion Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Objective 10: Increased share of poor students (bottom 40 percent) in the overall higher education institutions’ Achieved Not Verified. enrollment (HBS) Objective 11: Coverage to improved water supply in urban areas is extended to other cities. The number of Achieved Achieved beneficiaries provided with improved water supply and sanitation service in urban settings Objective 12: Share of total population covered by targeted Partially Achieved Mostly Achieved social benefits Focus Area III: Promoting regional connectivity Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Objective 13: Satisfaction of road users (beneficiaries) with the improvements along completed road sections under the Achieved Achieved Regional Central Asia Road Links Program – Phase 2. Objective 14: Volume of freight through selected the Regional Central Asia Road Links Program- Phase 2 Partially Achieved Achieved international border crossing points. Focus Area IV: Cross-pillar priorities Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Objective 15: Increased gender empowerment through increased access to employment opportunities, land use Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved rights, mother and child health Objective 16: The number of households supported to adopt sustainable, climate resilient, water and land management Achieved Achieved practices Objective 17: Number of users provided with water efficient Achieved Achieved. systems for productive or domestic uses Objective 18: Oversight of aggregate fiscal risk from other Not Achieved Not Achieved public sector entities is strengthened Objective 19: Public Procurement Portal and complaint Partially Achieved Partially Achieved handling system established and functioning Objective 20: All public bidding opportunities and contract Partially Achieved Partially Achieved award results are published. Objective 21: Number of WBG projects and IFC advisory services that are implemented and monitored in Partially Achieved Partially Achieved collaboration with CSOs/NGOs is increased Objective 22: Improved access to data on poverty and Mostly Achieved Partially Achieved employment For Official Use Only CLR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 37. At the start of the CPS, 13 Bank operations were under implementation, with total commitments of $187 million, covering a wide range of areas including agriculture, health, energy, investment climate, land administration, tax administration, water supply, and municipal infrastructure. During the CPS period, 14 operations were approved with commitments totaling $429 million, exceeding the planned commitments of $265 million by a significant margin due to significant increases in IDA17 and IDA 18 allocations. Two new operations were regional projects accounting for $54 million in new commitments. Three Development Policy Loans Operations were dropped because of the difficult macroeconomic environment. Two operations (Communal Services Development Fund and the Real Estate Registration Project) were cancelled in order to meet new IDA grant/credit ratios which became effective July 1, 2015. The bulk of new lending (or 75 percent), went to infrastructure projects including the Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project ($225.7 million) and Strengthening Critical Infrastructure ($50 million). At the beginning of the CPS period, 20 TF projects with commitments of $94 million had been approved. During the CPS period, 11 TFs were approved in the amount of $33 million, of which seven are than less than one million. Overall TF resources support a wide range of areas and similarly dispersed as IDA lending. 38. Tajikistan’s performance at exit compares well with the ECA region and World Bank-wide averages, albeit the sample is small. During the CPS period, IEG rated all five completed projects (100 percent) Moderately Satisfactory or better (four as satisfactory and one as moderately satisfactory), compared to the averages for ECA (83 percent) and Bank-wide (78 percent). However, the percentage of closed projects with low to moderate risk to development outcome (25 percent) was lower for Tajikistan, compared to the averages for ECA (52 percent) and Bank-wide (42 percent). In terms of its active portfolio, Tajikistan has a higher percentage of projects at risk on average (25.4 percent) compared to ECA (18.4 percent) and Bank-wide (23.7 percent). Tajikistan’s percentage of commitments at risk was slightly lower than the average for ECA (16.5 percent) and better than the Bank-wide average (22.1 percent). 39. During the CPS period, IFC made net commitments of $25.8 million in long term loans, of which about 90 percent were in financial markets. Average outstanding commitments under the short-term trade finance guarantee amounted to $1.5 million. About 60 percent of IFC investment was in the second largest bank, followed by several investments in microfinance institutions. 40. During the CPS period, IEG prepared one Project Evaluation Summary (PES) for a commercial banking project and one validation (EvNote) of an IFC Expanded Project Supervision Report (XPSR) for a tourism project. The PES rated the project Unsuccessful for Development Outcome since the project materially fell short of all targets. The EvNote rated the project Unsuccessful for Development Outcome due to Unsatisfactory ratings for business success and economic sustainability. 41. During the review period, MIGA did not underwrite any risk guarantees. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 42. The ASA program included 21 activities, four of which were Economic and Sector Work (ESW) and 17 were Technical Assistance (TA). The four ESW activities supported higher education, social assistance, transport and the financial sector through an FSAP Update and informed objectives 3, 6,8, and 9). ASA work complemented the ambition of the stretch goals. Technical Assistance covered governance, energy, finance, education and water and sanitation. ESW outputs have been disseminated and are available to the public in the World Bank Repository. The contributions of the ASA are well reflected in the CPS and PLR and in the results framework. 43. At the beginning of the CPS period, IFC had 10 ongoing Advisory Services (AS) projects amounting to $27.3 million. The AS projects covered a variety of areas, including investment climate, corporate governance, financial infrastructure, microfinance, and agribusiness. During the CPS For Official Use Only CLR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group period, IFC approved five AS projects amounting to $6.1 million, mainly in mobile banking and digital financial services, as well as support to PPPs. 44. During the CPS period, IEG validated (EvNote) two IFC Project Completion Report for Advisory Services. One EvNote rated the Development Effectiveness of a mobile telephony project as Unsuccessful due to delays in the establishment of a conducive regulatory environment and insufficient customer demand. Another EvNote rated a PPP project Mostly Unsuccessful for Development Effectiveness due to Unsatisfactory ratings for Outcomes and Impact due in part to ineffective decision-making within the government. Results Framework 45. Broadly speaking, the results framework (RF) reflected the link from country development goals to interventions. The CPS and PLR provided baselines and targets for most outputs/indicators. Results from the IFC interventions were reflected in the RF. However, the RF had shortcomings. There was a mismatch between program level ambition and the CPS objectives. Very few of the CPS objectives were formulated at a program level (e.g., Objectives 15 and 22) and most if not all were pitched either at the project level (e.g., Objectives 8, 11, and 19); or in the form of indicators (e.g., Objectives 1, 2,3,5,6,7,10, 12,13,14,16, 17,20, 21). Baselines for some objectives were dated (e.g., Objectives 1 and 4) and used 2012 as the baseline year when more recent Doing Business data should have been available), or were not clearly defined (e.g., Objective 8). There was also a disconnect between an objective and indicator (objective 21), with the objective referring to a number while the indicator was in percentages, with a lack of clarity as to what the percentages refer. Overall, this approach did not fully capture the overarching objectives of the program, its overall strategic direction or expected program results. At the PLR stage, there was no attempt to retrofit the results framework by clarifying results chains and bringing together related indicators around common objectives. This could have been done on a number of areas including on access to finance, taxation, governance, and power sector. In sum, while the RF met some basic quality criteria, such as setting targets and baselines, the CPS objectives were not consistent with program level ambition and interventions and left the CPS without a strategic framework to guide implementation and assess program results and impact. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 46. The World Bank Group worked effectively with development partners. The World Bank chairs the Development Coordination Council comprising 13 working groups and 29 Development Partners. Work on the Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project has been undertaken jointly with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). The partners have adopted Jointly Agreed Procedures on procurement, financial management, safeguards, and project implementation support. The World Bank worked with United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DfID) on improving the public financial management and the investment climate. Work with the International Monetary Fund included an FSAP and on taxation. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 47. Environmental and social safeguard policies were triggered in the closed energy, education, governance and social development projects. The CLR noted commitment to building capacity for safeguard compliance, but it did not discuss specific measures taken to comply with the applicable safeguards policies. The projects’ ICRRs and ICRs reported overall compliance with safeguards policies. Local capacity shortage was reported as a major implementation challenge leading to the extension of the project closing date in the social development sector. Additional implementation issues include inadequate land acquisition activities that caused project temporary suspension in the education sector. All these problems were reported to have been resolved by projects’ completion. No request to the Inspection Panel was registered during the CPS. 48. INT received ten complains and launched three investigations during this period, all of which closed as substantiated: Education (two substantiated); Trade and Competitiveness (one substantiated). For Official Use Only CLR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group Ownership and Flexibility 49. Government ownership of the program was uneven. Faced with an external shock induced by a drop in remittances, the government opted for an active fiscal policy which further complicated the macroeconomic situation, and took attention away from the ambitious reform agenda foreseen in the CPS. The World Bank responded flexibly and allocated the bulk of new lending during the CPS period to infrastructure, including the largest operation - Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project in response to the government’s preference for infrastructure investments in light of the change in IDA terms to credit. The World Bank also dropped the envisaged DPO series due to a difficult macroeconomic environment resulting in part from a sharp drop in remittances in 2014 and an expansive policy stand. In order to mitigate the impact on the change in IDA terms from zero to one hundred percent credit, Tajikistan was included as one of four pilot countries under the IDA-18 exceptional Risk Mitigation Window. The PLR introduced only marginal changes to the program and opted to wait for the forthcoming CPF rather to introduce substantial changes to adjust to changing circumstances. Arguably, earlier preparation of the PLR would have allowed adjustments to the CPS design to better fit the changing environment. WBG Internal Cooperation 50. Internal coordination was mixed. The CPS envisaged the World Bank Group working together, especially on improving the business environment, access to finance, and energy. The World Bank and the IFC worked together on reforms to the business environment, the IFC through Advisory Services and the World Bank through the Private Sector Competitiveness Project. It was foreseen that the DPO series would help remove barriers to private sector development and set the basis for IFC to mobilize a yearly investment of $10 to $20 million. However, as noted, the DPO series was dropped. CPS expectations that joint work on energy would lead to IFC support in the management of Barki Tojik did not materialize. The CLR does not report on the proposed joint work on developing agricultural value chains. Risk Identification and Mitigation 51. Risks were well identified in the CPS and in the PLR. They centered on macroeconomic developments and stalled structural reforms, governance and institutional constraints, including the poor quality of data, social fragility and regional tensions. The macroeconomic risk materialized when remittances dropped, and the Government faced the mounting crisis through increased public expenditure exacerbating macroeconomic imbalances; the DPO series was not delivered as a result. As a mitigating measure, the Bank Group envisaged continued collaboration with other development partners on macro-fiscal and structural reforms. Regardless, work on fiscal consolidation and removing critical constraints to economic diversification was delayed. ASA work on the political economy of the drivers of policy reform could have been undertaken early in the CPS preparation to inform more substantive mitigating measures and advance further the structural reform agenda. Attention to political economy drivers increased towards the end of the CPS. Another mitigating measure taken was to channel resources where needs were the largest (e.g. communal services) but the corresponding project was cancelled by government due to the change in IDA terms to 100 percent credit. On project implementation, the World Bank moved to e-accounts to pay contractors when the macroeconomic shock impaired the local banking system. Overall Assessment and Rating 52. On balance, World Bank Group performance is rated as Good. Design 53. The CPS sought to help Tajikistan’s transition to a new growth model, including with the support of a DPO series to achieve “stretch’ goals. However, the program was not selective with 22 CPS objectives which were akin to project indicators and did not match the level of ambition of the program. The IFC and the World Bank committed to work together on selected objectives such as For Official Use Only CLR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group improving the business climate and access to finance. Risks and mitigating measures were well identified. Implementation 54. The implementation of the program was affected by a difficult macroeconomic environment and changed country context. The World Bank responded flexibly by dropping the DPO series, resulting in a slower pace of reforms than originally envisioned and limiting major improvements in the investment climate and the ability of IFC to mobilize private investments. It also shifted IDA commitments to infrastructure projects in response to government preferences resulting from a change in IDA terms to 100 percent credit, while increasing commitments above the planned amounts. Tajikistan’s performance at exit compares favorably with the ECA and Bank-wide averages, with five of its completed projects rated Moderately Satisfactory or better by IEG, although risks to development outcomes are higher than its comparators. The share of projects at risk during the CPS was higher than the ECA region and the Bank-wide averages, although lower than comparators in terms of commitments. The IFC and the World Bank worked together most notably on improving the business environment and access to credit. The World Bank collaborated effectively with development partners, in selected areas such as energy, water, and governance. INT received ten complaints, and launched three investigations, which closed as substantiated. The PLR could have been undertaken much earlier to adjust to the changed environment. 7. Assessment of CLR Quality 55. The CLR is informative and comprehensive, but some critical issues called for a more forthcoming assessment. Specifically, the CLR could have been more forthcoming in discussing the deficiencies of the results framework, other than pointing out that it was optimistic. Also, the CLR could have discussed the potential impact of the PLR on the delivery of CPS results. 8. Findings and Lessons 56. The CLR provided eight lessons. IEG agrees with the lessons and highlights (i) overambitious objectives and/or under-emphasis of institutional inertia inherent in the country political economy superstructure have impacted the success of the CPS program; (ii) with ownership and commitment, the government can (and does) implement “transformational projects” and achieve significant results; and, (iii) uneven governance standards, administration capacities, and internal review practices are constraints for swift implementation and need to be anticipated and managed pro-actively. 57. IEG adds two lessons: • A country program should identify objectives that match the level of ambition of the program and its intended results and impact. When designing a results framework, it is necessary to go beyond listing outcomes and setting baselines and targets. In the case of Tajikistan, CPS objectives were akin to indicators, which made for a cumbersome stocktaking of the delivery of results and did not fully reflect program impact. The PLR should have taken the opportunity to retrofit the results framework by clarifying the results chain and bringing together related indicators around common program objectives. • Political economy analysis of the drivers of policy reform is necessary early on to accompany implementation of ambitious goals. The CPS committed to support the government to move Tajikistan towards a higher and more sustainable growth path. When the pace of reform did not meet expectations, political economy analysis on the drivers of policy reform should have led the Bank Group to adjust and focus its engagement. Annexes CLR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Tajikistan Annex Table 2: Tajikistan Planned and Actual Lending, FY15-FY18 ($, millions) Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Tajikistan, FY15-18 Annex Table 4: Tajikistan Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY15-18 ($, millions) Annex Table 5 IEG Project Ratings for Tajikistan, FY15-18 ($, millions) Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Tajikistan and Comparators, FY15-18 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Tajikistan and Comparators, FY15-18 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Tajikistan, FY15-18 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Tajikistan, FY13-17 ($, millions) Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Tajikistan ($, millions) Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Tajikistan, 2015-2018 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Tajikistan ($, millions) Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Tajikistan ($, millions) Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Tajikistan, FY15 - FY18 ($, millions) Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Projects Active in Tajikistan, 2015-2018 Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Tajikistan CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Strengthening the role of the private sector 1. CPS Objective: Average cost to comply with business regulation decreased Baseline: $470 (2012) This objective was supported by the Private Target: $250 (2018) Sector Competitiveness project (P130091, FY12) and the ASA Strengthening Bank regulation and supervision (P131641, FY15). In addition, the IFC AS Tajikistan Business Regulation and Investment and Policy Project (599048, FY13) supported the objective. IFC was planning to conduct a survey to assess the cost of complying with business regulation. However, IEG could not verify this information. The CLR reports that the cost to comply with business regulation was 19.3 percent of GNI per capita to start a business or $214 with a GNI per capita of $1,110 in 2017 (Doing Business 2018 report). The Doing Business 2019 report states that Tajikistan Major costs to start a business was 18 percent of Outcome per capita income or $178 with a GNI of Measures $990 (p208). However, starting a business is just one part of the cost to comply with business regulation. The November 2018 ISR: MU of project P130091 reports that time spent on business registration was reduced to 5 days (September 2018) from 24 days (July 2012). However, the project did not monitor costs to comply with business regulation. Mostly Achieved 2. CPS Objective: Increased number of entrepreneurs using electronic services to comply with business regulations, particularly tax reporting and permit applications Baseline: 2100 (2012) This objective was supported by the Tax The ASA P153547 informed the Tax Target: 6000 (2018) Administration project (P127807, FY13) and Committee of the Republic of by the ASA Tajikistan Tax E-filing Impact Tajikistan on the effects of new Evaluation (P153547, FY17). In addition, the electronic tax filing system on firms’ IFC AS Tajikistan Business Regulation and tax behavior, corruption, and tax Investment and Policy Project (599048, administration processes FY13) supported the objective. (Completion Summary). The CLR reports that 59,000 tax payers used the e-filing system as of December Annexes CLR Review 18 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Strengthening the role of the private sector 2017 and 622 permits have been issued since June 2016. The November 2018 ISR: MS of P127807 reports that 98.9% of legal entities and 77.8% of individual entrepreneurs filed taxes electronically as of November 2018. However, As of March 2018, there were 31,176 legal entities and 32,219 individual entrepreneurs ( May 2018 Aide Memoire) of which only 18,816 entrepreneurs used electronic services or 58.4%. The IFC AS project 599048 reports that were 622 applications for permits in two pilot ministries in 2017 using the E-permit system (AS completion). Achieved 3. CPS Objective: Primary performance index (Taxpayers satisfaction survey, Tax Committee, Republic of Tajikistan) Baseline: 47 percent This objective was supported by the Tax (2017) Administration project (P127807, FY13) and Target: 70 percent by the ASA Tajikistan Tax E-filing Impact (2018) Evaluation (P153547, FY17). The CLR reports that the next survey was scheduled for the 3rd quarter of 2019. IEG could not verify this information. The previous survey was conducted in 2016 (June 2017 Aide Memoire). Not Achieved 4. CPS Objective: Increased access to finance for MSME (measured in the number of loans provided), of which 80% are well performing Baseline: 54,000 (2012) The objective was supported by the At the PLR stage, the indicator was Target: 200,000 (2018) following ASAs: Financial Sector Policy modified from the original: Dialogue (P147882 FY17), Strengthening Increased access to finance for Bank regulation and supervision (P131641, MSME (measured in the number of FY15), Legal Framework for Secured loans provided), Transactions (P130728, FY15), and the Baseline (2012): 54,000 Developing Insurance Market (P132740, Target (2018): 85,000 FY15). IFC also supported this objective through its outstanding investment portfolio The Central Bank of Tajikistan in the financial sector and services reports that microfinancial comprised of 11 projects with 5 clients, and institutions had 2.6% of total loans the following AS projects Tajikistan FM classified as overdue in 2013. In Infrastructure (569390, FY09); 2018, the share of overdue loans Transformation for MFIs in Tajikistan rose to 6.6% (p83, December 2018 Annexes CLR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Strengthening the role of the private sector (563790, FY09); and, Central Asia Agri- Banking Statistics Bulletin). Finance Project (599521, FY14). However, it is unclear what definition of overdue is used (e.g. 30+ days vs. The CLR reports that 352,681 loans were 90+ days). extended to MSMEs in 2017, of which 90.9 percent are classified as well-performing The ASA P147882 supported the (<60+ days). However, IEG could not verify emergence of a stable, market- this information. oriented, and inclusive financial sector (Completion Summary). The 2019Q2 Project Supervision report of P131641 provided assistance in IFC AS project 569390 reports that since strengthening the supervisory and 2009 the project has improved access to regulatory framework for banks and credit for almost 690,000 individuals and deposit-taking micro-finance MSMEs ($345 million). Similarly, the AS organizations (MFOs) and increasing project 563790 reports that 214,409 loans capacity of the supervisor to monitor outstanding with 3.5% of the loan values the financial sector more effectively outstanding 90+ days overdue as of March and address vulnerabilities in a 2018 (Completion Report). As project timely manner (Completion 599521 resulted in $2.3 million in loans Summary). P130728 addressed the reaching 1,548 farmers (2019Q2 constraints in the legal and Supervision Report). regulatory framework for the use of moveable collateral to secure loans IFC’s DOTS database reports that the (Completion Summary). P132740 number of MSME loans outstanding of IFC provided technical assistance to clients increased from 51,632 in 2012 to strengthen the legal and regulatory 126,600 in 2016. The DOTS database does framework for insurance, strengthen not include indicators for loan quality such the supervisory capacity of the State as NPLs. Insurance Supervisory Services (SISS) and improve the Achieved dissemination of information about the activities and performance of the sector to the general public (Completion Summary). 5. CPS Objective: New loans using collateral agency Baseline: 0 This objective was supported by the Private The Tajikistan Collateral Registry Target: 4,878 Sector Competitiveness project (P130091, System website: FY12) and the following ASAs: Financial http://fehrist.tj/Content.aspx?page=m Sector Policy Dialogue (P147882 FY17), ain& Strengthening Bank regulation and supervision (P131641, FY15), Legal Additional information from the Framework for Secured Transactions region indicates that there were 25 (P130728, FY15). In addition, the IFC AS registrations (worth $42 million) Tajikistan FM Infrastructure (569390, FY09) since the collateral agency became supported the objective. operational in February 1, 2019. IEG could not validate this information. The February 2018 ISR: MS of project P130091 reports that the collateral agency was functionally operational since December 2018. The January 2019 Supervision Report of IFC AS project Annexes CLR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Strengthening the role of the private sector 569390 reports that the an electronic-based collateral registry has been designed and was expected to be operational in January 2019. Additional information from the region indicates that the collateral agency was launched and operational on February 1, 2019 (World Bank). Not Achieved 6. CPS Objective: New Loans using Credit Bureau Baseline: 0 MSMEs This objective was supported by the IFC AS The Credit Information Bureau of Target: 128,000 MSMEs Tajikistan FM Infrastructure (569390, FY09). Tajikistan was registered as a commercial entity in April 2010 and The CLR reports that 507,000 MSMEs started operating three years later obtained access to credit using the credit (World Bank). bureau data. However, IEG could not verify this information. The 2019Q2 Project Supervision report of IFC AS project 569390 reports that since 2009 the project has improved access to credit for almost 690,000 individuals and MSMEs ($345 million) Achieved 7. CPS Objective: Number of small farmers reporting increased marketed surplus of selected agricultural products Baseline: 0 (2013) The objective was supported by the At the PLR stage, the indicator was Target: 4,000 (2018) Agriculture commercialization project modified from the original: (P132652, FY14) and its AF (P158499, Number of small farmers reporting FY18), and the ASA Agriculture Sector increased marketed surplus of Update (P148075, FY15). The following IFC selected agricultural products projects also supported this objective the AS Baseline (2013): 0 projects Tajikistan Cold Storage (PPP) Target (2018): 6,500 Project (600076, FY14). The ASA P148075 identified the The December 2018 ISR:MS of P132652 constraints in the agriculture sector reports that 2,650 beneficiaries had and provided policy and expenditure improved commercial activity or increased recommendations to promote marketed surplus (as reported by the CLR) dissemination of best practices as of December 2018. The AS project (Working Paper). 600076 reports that the project aimed to facilitate farmers’ capacity to market surplus by through cold storage. However, the project was mostly unsuccessful in achieving its objectives (Completion Report). Partially Achieved 8. CPS Objective: Improve financial performance of Barki Tajik Baseline: Cash The objective was supported by the Energy The ASA P147022 produced a note collected from electricity Loss Reduction project (P089244, FY05) that analyzed the short-term cost Annexes CLR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Strengthening the role of the private sector sales is about two times and the ASA TA Tajikistan Energy Sector recovery of Barki Tojik’s electricity lower than short term Dialogue (P147022, FY15). business (Note). cost recovery requirements The CLR that cash collection from electricity As of October 2018, tariff rates for (2013) sales only equal 25% of cost recovery Barki Tajik remain at 45% of cost Target: Cash collected levels. However, IEG could not verify this recovery levels (News Report) from electricity sales are information. equal or above short term cost recovery The ICRR IEG:MS of P089244 reports that levels (2018) as of November 2014, Barki Tajik’s tariffs remain well below cost recovery levels with only an 84.7% cash collection rate. The 2018 Systematic Country Diagnostic refers to estimates that put the average tariff at 55 percent below cost recovery (p37, footnote 132) Not Achieved 9. CPS Objective: Barki Tajik transparency and accountability Baseline: audit reports The objective was supported by the Energy for 2011 and 2013 Loss Reduction project (P089244, FY05). issued with disclaimer of auditor’s opinion (2013) The CLR reported that Barki Tajik’s audit Target: audit reports reports were issued with qualified opinion issued with qualified for 2015-2017. In addition, Barki Tajik opinion (2015-18) signed the contract for the 2018 audit on November 2018. The ICRR IEG:MS of P089244 reports that while the project provided technical assistance in the implementation of an independent auditing program, it did not inform whether the opinion of the project’s external auditors was qualified or not at project close (December 2014). The audit reports from 2015-2017 have been published with the auditor’s qualified opinion (Barki Tajik Audit Reports) Achieved Annexes CLR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area II: Actual Results IEG Comments Social inclusion 10. CPS Objective: Increased share of poor students (bottom 40 percent) in the overall higher education institutions’ enrollment (HBS) Baseline: 13 percent (2007) This objective was supported by the Higher The ASA P146651 Target: 17 percent (2018) Education Project (P148291, FY15) and the analyzed the efficiency, following ASAs: Higher Education Sector Study equity, and effectiveness (ASA) (P146651, FY15) and Governance in of higher education in Service Delivery 3 (P148404, FY16). Tajikistan and identified priority policy reform The CLR reports that in 2017 23% of enrolled areas to enhance the students in tertiary education were from the quality and relevance of bottom 40% percent based on a survey (The higher education for the PSIA/ Poverty Diagnostic of Water Supply, labor market demand Sanitation and Hygiene in Tajikistan (P154105, (Completion Summary). FY17)). However, IEG could not verify this P148404 informed and information. The report of project P154105 only fostered the dialogue discussed comparison of adult completion rates with the Government of for tertiary education between poor and non- Tajikistan on the poor households. governance of basic service delivery, with a The PDO of project P148291 is to develop focus on ensuring more mechanisms that improve and monitor the equity and efficiency in quality and labor-market relevance of higher access to higher education. Project P148291, however, do not education (Completion monitor this indicator (December 2018 ISR: Report). Major MU). The report of P148404 and the report of Outcome P146651 indicate that 16% of students enrolled Measures were from the poorest 40% (October 2014). However, no data for 2018 is available. Not Verified 11. CPS Objective: The number of beneficiaries provided with improved water supply and sanitation service in urban settings Baseline: 0 (2013) The objective was supported by the Municipal Target: 847,000 (2018) Infrastructure Development Project (P079027, FY06); Dushanbe Water Supply II (P118196, FY11), including its AF (P154729, FY15). The ICR: S of P079026 reports that there were 204,545 beneficiaries of improved access to water supply as of April 2016. The November 2018 ISR: MS of project P118196 reports that there were 895,200 beneficiaries of improve water utility performance and water supply services in selected areas of Dushanbe as of March 2018. Achieved 12. CPS Objective: Share of total population covered by targeted social benefits Indicator 1: Share of total This objective was supported through the Social At the PLR stage, the population covered by targeted Safety Net Strengthening project (P122039, indicator was modified social benefits: FY11) and its AF (P165831, FY18) and the ASA from the original: Annexes CLR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area II: Actual Results IEG Comments Social inclusion the Tajikistan Review of Social Safety Nets Share of poorest quintile Baseline: 23 percent (2013) Reform (ASA) (P147181, FY15). of population covered by Target: 100 percent (2018) targeted social benefits: The February 2019 ISR: S of P122039 reports Baseline (2013): 23 that the beneficiaries of social safety net percent programs totaled to 813,000 or 81% of the Target (2018): 55 project’s target (target of 1,000,000) as of percent November 2018. The ASA P147181 Mostly Achieved informed policy choices in targeting, benefit design, budgeting, and delivery mechanisms of the Target Social Assistance program (Completion Summary). CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area III: Promoting regional Actual Results IEG Comments connectivity 13. CPS Objective: Satisfaction of road users (beneficiaries) with the improvements along completed road sections under the Regional Central Asia Road Links Program – Phase 2 Baseline: 0 percent (2015) The objective was supported by the Central At the PLR stage, the Target: 30 percent (2018) Asia Road links (P145634, FY15) and the ASAs indicator was modified Multi-modal Transport Study (P152420, FY16) from the original: Satisfaction of road users The CLR reports a satisfaction rating of 43.7% (beneficiaries) with the based on the latest satisfaction survey. improvements along Information from the November 2018 ISR: S of completed road sections project P145634 reports that the satisfaction of under CARS 2 road users with the improvements along Baseline (2015): 0 percent completed road sections was 76% as of Target (2018): 30 percent November 2018. The ASA P152420 Major Achieved identified key issues to Outcome modernize the Tajik Measures Railways and improve intermodal transport. In particular, the project considers improvements in the linkages with other modes – complementarity with road sector (Report) 14. CPS Objective: Volume of freight through selected the Regional Central Asia Road Links Program- Phase 2 Baseline: 359,838 (‘000 tons) The objective was supported by the Central At the PLR stage, the (2015) Asia Road links (P145634, FY15) and the ASAs indicator was modified Target: 410,000 (‘000 tons) Multi-modal Transport Study (P152420, FY16). from the original: (2018) Volume of freight through The November 2018 ISR: S of project P145634 selected CARS 2 reports that the total volume of freight through international border Guliston/Kyzyl-Bel and Madaniyat/Kairagach, crossing points. Annexes CLR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area III: Promoting regional Actual Results IEG Comments connectivity Patar border crossing points was 371,000 (‘000 Baseline (2015): 359,838 tons) per year as of June 2018. Additional (‘000 tons) information provided by the region from the Target (2018): 410,000 Ministry of Transport indicates that the total (‘000 tons) freight volume was 596,076 (‘000 tons) in 2018 (Ministry of Transport). Achieved CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area IV: Actual Results IEG Comments Cross-pillar priorities 15. CPS Objective: Increased gender empowerment through increased access to employment opportunities, land use rights, mother and child health Baseline: 86,000 (2013) This objective was supported by the Land Of which: employment 22,200; Registration & Cadastre System for land certificates 63,800. Sustainable Agriculture Project (LRCSP) micronutrients and nutrition (P089566, FY05); TJ Health Services education for pregnant women - Improvement (P126130, FY13); Tajikistan 0 Second Public Employment for Sustainable Target: 258,200 (2018) Agriculture and Water Resource Management Of which: employment 77,200; project (PAMP) II (P133327, FY13), including land certificates 136,000; AF (P154327, FY15). Micronutrients and nutrition education for pregnant women: The CLR reports that there were 311,448 45,000 pregnant women that received antenatal care four or more times from a skilled health provider. IEG could not verify this information. Employment: The December 2018 ISR: S of Major project P133327 reports that as of December 1, Outcome 2018, there were 28,443 beneficiaries of public Measures works programs that have signed labor contracts, of which 6,845 based on the 24% share of women to total person-days worked. Nutrition Education: The December 2018 ISR:MS of project P126130 reports that 140,382 mothers received counselling on nutrition as of December 2018, although it is unclear what is the share of pregnant women in the total. In addition, 97.7% (Sogd), 97.4% (Kathlon), and 99.8% (RRS) of pregnant women received antenatal care four or more times from a skilled health provider as of November 2018. Land Certificates: The ICRR IEG: S of project P089566 reports that 152,851 women were issued land use certificates as of December 2015. Mostly Achieved Annexes CLR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area IV: Actual Results IEG Comments Cross-pillar priorities 16. CPS Objective: The number of households supported to adopt sustainable, climate resilient, water and land management practices Baseline: 0 (2013) This objective was supported by the The ASA program Target: 21,000 (2018) Environmental Land Management and Rural P120142 updated Of which women: 40% (2018) Livelihoods project (P122694, FY 13), Climate strategies and policies at Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Aral Sea the national and regional Basin CAMP4ASB (P151363, FY16) and the levels. The program also following ASAs: Central Asia Energy and Water organized a thematic Development Program (P120142, FY15) and session on water use Agriculture Sector Update (P148075, FY15). efficiency during the High- Level Symposium on SDG The ICR: S of project P122694 reports that 6 and Targets: Ensuring 53,390 households have adopted climate that No One is Left Behind change and sustainable land management in Access to Water and practices as of May 2018. The ICR also reports Sanitation in 2016 (Impact that 48% of project beneficiaries were female. It Report). P148075 is unclear whether these female beneficiaries identified the constraints in were also household head which adopted the the agriculture sector and practices. The December 2018 ISR: S of policy and expenditure project P151363 reports that 13,260 (40.5% recommendations to female) were beneficiaries of the project as of promote dissemination of December 2018. However, there is no better best practices information how many refer to beneficiaries in (Working Paper). Tajikistan as P151363 is a regional project. Achieved 17. CPS Objective: Number of users provided with water efficient systems for productive or domestic uses Baseline: 0 (2013) This objective was supported by the PAMP II Target: 514,000 (2018) (P133327, FY13) and its AF (P154327, FY15), the Environmental Land Management and Rural Livelihoods project (P122694, FY 13), and the following ASAs: Central Asia Energy and Water Development Program (P120142, FY15) and Agriculture Sector Update (P148075, FY15). The December 2018 ISR: S of project P133327 reports that 1,615,161 people were beneficiaries of increased food production as a result of improved irrigation and drainage infrastructure as of November 2018. The ICR: S of project P122694 reports that there were 243,000 beneficiaries of the project, of which 49,496 were Water User Association beneficiaries as of April 2017. Achieved 18. CPS Objective: Oversight of aggregate fiscal risk from other public sector entities is strengthened Baseline: PEFA 2012 score for The objective was supported by the ASA PI-9 C+ (2012) Tajikistan PEFA Assessment 2017 (P162221, Target: PEFA 2018 score for PI- FY18). 9 no less than B+ (2018) Annexes CLR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area IV: Actual Results IEG Comments Cross-pillar priorities The CLR and the report of ASA project P162221 and the PEFA 2017 report indicate that rating for PI-10 (former PI-9) as C due to having non-mandatory public disclosure of State-Owned Enterprises’ financial statements. The PEFA indicator PI-9 used in the indicator was designed under the 2011 PEFA methodology. The indicator PI-10 under the 2016 methodology currently used in the 2017 report is the closest equivalent to PI-9 (2011 vs 2016 comparison). Annex 4 of the 2017 report recalculates PI-10 under the 2011 methodology and shows that the rating for the Tajikistan is B+ (p208). However, the same annex points out that there was no improvement PI-9 as there was a mistake in rating this indicator in 2012. The rating for PI-9 in 2012 should have been A. Not Achieved 19. CPS Objective: Accountable and transparent public procurement system in place Indicator 1: Public Procurement The objective was supported by the Public At the PLR stage, the Portal and complaint handling Finance Management Modernization Project II indicator was modified system established and (P150381, FY15) and the Implementation & from the original: functioning Capacity Building of e-Procurement project Increased capacity of (P148997, FY15) entities to procure per Baseline: No (2013) improved standards. Target: Yes (2018) The CLR reports that the Unified Public Baseline (2013): Lack of Procurement Portal (http://zakupki.gov.tj) is Public Procurement Portal enhanced and functioning. and complaint handling system. The December 2018 ISR: MS of project Target (2018): Increase P150381 reports that the consultant, qualified procuring entities responsible for improving the e-Procurement by 50 percent System and Infrastructure (including complaint Functioning Public handling), submitted his inception report in Procurement Portal and October 2018 and was under review. In complaint handling addition, an international consultant was system. selected to help the Public Procurement Agency and the contract was expected to be signed in December 2018. Partially Achieved 20. CPS Objective: All public bidding opportunities and contract award results are published Baseline: 0 percent (2013) The objective was supported by the Public The portal has several Target: 100 percent (2018) Finance Management Modernization Project II pages for the following: (P150381, FY15) and the Implementation & • International tenders Capacity Building of e-Procurement project can be found in the (P148997, FY15). portal (http://test.zakupki.go Annexes CLR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area IV: Actual Results IEG Comments Cross-pillar priorities The CLR reports that notification of tenders and v.tj/mezhdunarodnye- contract awards are published in the portal but tendery/). only apply to the Public Procurement Agency’s • Register of Orders for activity. In addition, the CLR reports that 17 out 2015-2017 (2017: of 37 qualified procurement entities conduct http://test.zakupki.go procurement in e-format. However, the portal v.tj/reestr-zakazov- indicates there are 21 qualified procurement za-2017-g/) entities (http://zakupki.gov.tj/ref/registry/). • Contract Registry (http://test.zakupki.go The December 2018 ISR: MS of project v.tj/reestr- P150381 reports that only 72% of accredited kontraktov/) procuring entities were covered in the 2017 • Register of Contracts annual procurement reports of the Public in electronic form Procurement Agency. However, the reports are (http://test.zakupki.go not published. The ISR indicates that Agency’s v.tj/reestr-zakazov-v- data for the first 9 months in 2018 indicate elektronnoy-forme/) 100% of the accredited entities were covered by the report. The PEFA 2017 report’s Annex 4 indicates PI-19(iii) or “Public access to complete, reliable and timely procurement information” showed no improvement from 2012 with a rating of B (p219). Partially Achieved. 21. CPS Objective: Number of WBG projects and IFC advisory services that are implemented and monitored in collaboration with CSOs/NGOs is increased Baseline: 37 percent (2013) The objective was supported by the ASA At the PLR stage, the Target: 100 percent (2018) Implementation of the Governance Checklist indicator was modified project (P124737, FY15). from the original: Use of Bank portfolio to The CLR reports that all projects that were increase CSO capacity prepared during the CPS period have and demand for established citizen engagement mechanisms. transparency and Partial progress has been made in accountability, as introducing monitoring frameworks with measured by percent of CSO participation to better link WBG projects and IFC beneficiaries with service providers. The advisory services CLR does not report on IFC Advisory Services that are implemented and compliance with CSOs/NGO collaboration. monitored in collaboration with CSOs/NGOs The ASA P124737 developed an efficient and Baseline (2013): 37 tailored way to embed governance work in percent project development (report). Given that CSO Target (2018): 100 engagement is mandatory in World Bank percent projects, the objective seems superfluous Partially Achieved 22. CPS Objectives: Improved access to data on poverty and employment Baseline: No poverty and The objective was supported by the ASA At the PLR stage, the unemployment rates reported Central Asia Poverty, Equity and Shared indicator was modified (2013) Prosperity Work (P147694, FY15), Program to from the original: Target: Poverty and Support Statistical Capacity in Eastern Europe Improved quality, access, unemployment rates reported in and CIS Countries (P128055, FY18). and use of data on poverty Annexes CLR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY15-FY18: Focus Area IV: Actual Results IEG Comments Cross-pillar priorities a quarterly moving average and employment by (2016) The CLR reports that the Agency of Statistics improvements to and (TajStat) has started to monitor and report publication of HBS and national poverty estimates in 2015. However, LFS: TajStat reports only the annual poverty Baseline (2013): No estimates to the public and does not yet poverty rate published provide access to the micro-data of the since 2009 or LFS since Household Budget Survey to parties other than 2007 the World Bank. Target (2016): Poverty and unemployment rates Tajstat does not directly publish a quarterly reported in a quarterly moving average for poverty and moving average unemployment. The website only publishes poverty rates comparison between 1999 and The programmatic ASA 2003 (http://stat.ww.tj/library/en/poverty.xls) P147694 strengthened the while unemployment data is published on a capacity for poverty monthly basis measurement and (http://stat.ww.tj/library/en/table_15.xls). monitoring in project Moreover, the latest available data on poverty countries (Kazakhstan, the from WB sources is only for Kyrgyz Republic, 2015(https://databank.worldbank.org/data/down Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and load/poverty/33EF03BB-9722-4AE2-ABC7- Turkmenistan) (Program AA2972D68AFE/Archives- Completion Summary). 2018/Global_POVEQ_TJK.pdf). Taken P128055 supported together, quarterly moving average for countries to improve their unemployment rate can be calculated with statistical systems, available data but this is not possible for increase their capacity to poverty rates. produce reliable, timely and accurate data. Partially Achieved Annexes CLR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Tajikistan Planned and Actual Lending, FY15-FY18 ($, millions) Approved Project Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Project name IDA ID FY FY FY Amount Amount Amount Project Planned Under CPS/PLR FY13-16 CPF PLR P133449 Communal Services Development Fund FY15 2015 2015 30 13.5 2nd Public Finance P150381 Management/Public/Public Admin, FY15 2015 2021 10 10.0 PFM APL2 P145634 Central Asia Road Links** FY15 2015 2021 15 45.0 P151363 CAMP4ASB** FY16 2016 2021 4 9.0 Central Asia Hydromet Dropped 6 Modernization** P148291 Higher Education FY16 2015 2022 15 15.0 P165831 Social Safety Net Strengthening - AF FY16 2018 5 1.8 Winter Energy - Nurek Hydropower P150816 FY16 2017 2024 30 225.7 Rehabilitation Project Dropped Development Policy Operation-1 FY16 20 Dropped Development Policy Operation-2 FY17 20 Dropped National sanitation FY17 20 Land Immovable Property Registration P154561 FY17 2016 2017 15 10.0 - Renamed to Real Etate Reg'n Proj Dropped Private Sector Competitiveness - AF FY18 10 Dropped Improved Irrigation Efficiency FY18 15 Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Turkmenistan Dropped FY18 30 Railway Dropped Development Policy Operation-3 FY18 20 Total Planned 265 330.0 Approved Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Unplanned Projects during the CPS Period IDA FY FY Amount Amount Amount P158298 Strengthening Critical Infrastructure 2018 2024 50.0 P158499 ACP Additional Financing 2018 15.0 Env Land Mgt and Rural Livelihoods - P153709 2015 1.8 AF P153975 Additional Financing to Tajikistan HSIP 2015 10.0 P154327 AF PAMP II 2015 12.0 P154729 DWSP2 Additional Financing 2015 10.0 Total Unplanned 98.8 Approved Approval Closing On-going Projects during the CPS/PLR Period IDA FY FY Amount TJ Health Services Improvement P126130 2014 2020 15.0 Project AG COMMERCIALIZATION P132652 2014 2022 22.0 PROJECT P127807 Tax Administration 2013 2020 18.0 P133327 PAMP II 2013 2020 18.0 P122141 AF ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION 2012 2015 18.0 Annexes CLR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group P127130 AF-MUNICIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE 2012 2016 11.9 P129313 LAND REGIS & CADASTRE - AF 2012 2016 10.0 P130091 PVT SECTR COMP 2012 2020 10.0 P118196 DUSHANBE WATER SUPPLY II 2011 2020 16.0 P099840 PFM MODERNIZATION (APL#1) 2009 2015 5.0 MUNICIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE P079027 2006 2016 15.0 DEVELOPMENT P089244 ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION 2005 2015 18.0 P089566 LAND REGIS & CADASTRE 2005 2016 10.0 Total On-going 186.9 Source: Tajikistan CPS and PLR, WB Business Intelligence Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 1/25/19 *LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. ** Regional Projects Note: CAMP4ASB and Central Asia Hydromet Modernization have been mentioned in Para 21 of the CLR but not on Annex 5. Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Tajikistan, FY15-18 Fiscal Proj ID Economic and Sector Work RAS Output Type Practice year P146651 Higher Education Sector Study No FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note SPL P147181 Tajikistan Review of Safety nets Reform No FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note FCI Financial Sector Assessment P152011 Tajikistan FSAP Update No FY16 TDD Program (FSAP) P152420 Tajikistan Multimodal Transport No FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note GOV Fiscal Proj ID Technical Assistance Output Type year P124736 Governance Data Platform No FY15 Model/Survey GOV P124737 Implement. of the Governance Checklist No FY15 Technical Assistance GOV P124738 Transparency and Accountability Measures No FY15 Knowledge-Sharing Forum GOV P124742 Grant Supervision No FY15 "How-To" Guidance FCI P125808 FIRST TJ #10074 Payment Sys. Modernizat No FY15 Technical Assistance FCI P130728 Tajikistan #10220 Leg Frmwk for Sec Tran No FY15 Technical Assistance FCI P131641 Tajikistan #10134 Strength Bank Reg No FY15 Technical Assistance FCI P132740 Tajikistan #10133 Dev Insurance Market No FY15 Technical Assistance EAE P147022 Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue No FY15 Technical Assistance EAE P147617 Review of Rogun HEP assessment process No FY15 Technical Assistance GOV P124741 Strengthening Capacity for Budgets No FY16 Technical Assistance EDU P148404 TJ Governance in Service Delivery No FY16 Technical Assistance GOV P149093 TAJIKISTAN Supreme Audit Institution 3 No FY16 Technical Assistance URS P156786 Emergency Support for Mudslides No FY16 Technical Assistance MTI P157258 DeMPA Tajikistan No FY16 Technical Assistance N/A P151298 FIRST TA supervision No FY17 Technical Assistance URS P154105 PSIA/ Poverty Diagnostic of WASH sector No FY17 Technical Assistance URS Source: WB Business Intelligence 1/28/19 Annexes CLR Review 31 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Tajikistan Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY15-18 ($, millions) Project Approval Closing Approved Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Zarafshon Irrigation Rehabilitation and Management P158576 TF A6507 2018 2021 16.6 Improvement Project P162637 Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project TF A6255 2018 2019 0.4 P150816 Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase I TF A4872 2017 2018 0.4 P150816 Nurek Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Phase I TF A4080 2017 2017 0.3 Fourth Phase of the Central Asia Regional Links P159707 TF A4541 2017 2018 0.5 Program P150381 Public Finance Management Modernization Project 2 TF A1735 2016 2021 9.8 Environmental Land Management and Rural P122694 TF A0431 2016 2018 2.0 Livelihoods Project P148291 Higher Education Project TF 19284 2015 2016 0.2 P145185 Republic of Tajikistan - Implementation of the NSDS TF 17852 2015 2018 2.5 P148997 Implementation & Capacity Building of e-Procurement TF 16491 2015 2018 0.5 Tajikistan: Extractive Industries Transparency P126997 TF 18097 2015 2018 0.5 Initiative Implementation TAJIKISTAN AGRICULTURE P132652 TF 16584 2014 2015 0.5 COMMERCIALIZATION PROJECT P150488 Capacity Building for MoEDT TF 17319 2014 2017 0.4 P146109 Tajikistan JSDF Nutrition Grant Scale Up TF 15755 2014 2018 2.8 P147860 Improving Social Accountability in the Water Sector TF 15840 2014 2018 0.9 P131441 Global Partnership for Education (GPE)-4 TF 15134 2014 2018 16.2 Review of Government Payroll and HR Management P148130 TF 16022 2014 2016 0.4 in Tajikistan Tajikistan Health Services Improvement Project P126130 TF 14871 2014 2020 4.8 (HSIP) P133449 Communal Services Development Fund TF 15385 2014 2016 0.5 Environmental Land Management and Rural P122694 TF 14521 2013 2018 5.4 Livelihoods Project Environmental Land Management and Rural P122694 TF 14523 2013 2018 9.5 Livelihoods Project TAJIKISTAN SECOND PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT FOR P133327 SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND WATER TF 13997 2013 2020 27.9 RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PROJECT P133191 TJ-Public Procurement Capacity Building TF 14081 2013 2017 0.2 P129157 Health Care Policy Monitoring in Tajikistan TF 12003 2013 2016 0.5 P130702 Tajikistan Public Sector Accounting Reform Project TF 12893 2013 2017 2.4 P126130 Tajikistan Health Services Improvement Project (HSIP) TF 10618 2012 2015 0.9 P120788 Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project TF 99848 2012 2019 7.0 P126211 Russia Education Aid for Development (READ) TF 99515 2012 2015 3.4 P089244 Energy Loss Reduction Project TF 96573 2012 2015 4.0 P099840 Public Financial Management Modernization TF 96083 2010 2015 4.7 P099840 Public Financial Management Modernization TF 92396 2010 2015 1.0 Total 126.8 Source: Client Connection as of 1/28/19 ** IEG Validates RETF that are 5M and above Annexes CLR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Tajikistan, FY15-18 ($, millions) Exit Total Proj ID Project name IEG Outcome IEG Risk to DO FY Evaluated MODERATELY 2015 P089244 ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION 32.9 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY 2015 P099840 PFM MODERNIZATION (APL#1) 5.0 SATISFACTORY LOW MUNICIPAL INFRASTRUCTURE 2016 P079027 27.1 SATISFACTORY HIGH DEVELOPMENT 2016 P089566 LAND REGIS & CADASTRE 20.4 SATISFACTORY MODERATE 2018 P131441 Global Partnership for Education (GPE)-4 0.0 SATISFACTORY # Total 85.4 Source: AO Key IEG Ratings as of 1/25/18 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Tajikistan and Comparators, FY15-18 Total Total RDO % RDO % Outcome Outcome Region Evaluated Evaluated Moderate or Lower Moderate or Lower % Sat ($) % Sat (No) ($M) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Tajikistan 85.4 5 100 100 24 25 ECA 15,163.6 113 92 83 60 52 World Bank 76,954.8 806 86 78 48 42 Source: WB AO as of 1/25/19; *IEG Calculation Annexes CLR Review 33 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Tajikistan and Comparators, FY15-18 Fiscal year 2015 2016 2017 2018 Ave FY15-18 Tajikistan # Proj 11 10 10 11 11 # Proj At Risk 4 1 3 3 % Proj At Risk - 40.0 10.0 27.3 25.4 Net Comm Amt ($M) 206.0 169.2 384.9 451.7 303 Comm At Risk ($M) 65.0 22.0 51.0 46 % Commit at Risk 38.4 5.7 11.3 15.2 ECA # Proj 207 197 202 204 203 # Proj At Risk 30 40 34 45 37 % Proj At Risk 14.5 20.3 16.8 22.1 18.4 Net Comm Amt ($M) 26,192.1 27,213.5 25,219.5 26,524.9 26,288 Comm At Risk ($M) 3,507.2 4,288.2 5,460.1 4,138.4 4,348 % Commit at Risk 13.4 15.8 21.7 15.6 16.5 World Bank # Proj 1,402 1,398 1,459 1,497 1,439 # Proj At Risk 339 336 344 348 342 % Proj At Risk 24.2 24.0 23.6 23.2 23.7 Net Comm Amt ($M) 191,907.8 207,350.0 212,502.9 229,965.6 210,432 Comm At Risk ($M) 44,430.7 42,715.1 50,837.9 48,148.8 46,533 % Commit at Risk 23.2 20.6 23.9 20.9 22.1 Source: WB BI as of 1/28/19 Agreement type: IBRD/IDA Only Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Tajikistan, FY15-18 Fiscal Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 Overall Result Tajikistan Disbursement Ratio 19.3 22.5 25.9 11.6 17.9 Inv Disb in FY ($M) 25.4 36.6 34.6 37.1 133.7 Inv Tot Undisb 131.6 162.5 133.6 319.9 747.7 Begin FY ($M) ECA Disbursement Ratio 23.5 17.5 20.7 21.9 20.8 Inv Disb in FY ($M) 2,664.9 2,276.3 2,858.7 2,928.2 10,728.1 Inv Tot Undisb 11,343.0 13,032.3 13,778.8 13,370.0 51,524.1 Begin FY ($M) World Bank Disbursement Ratio 21.8 19.5 20.5 20.4 20.5 Inv Disb in FY ($M) 21,854.1 21,153.6 22,128.0 22,594.3 87,730.0 Inv Tot Undisb 100,345.8 108,603.7 108,150.7 110,623.4 427,723.6 Begin FY ($M) * Calculated as IBRD/IDA Disbursements in FY / Opening Undisbursed Amount at FY. Restricted to Lending Instrument Type = Investment. Source: AO disbursement ratio table as of 1/28/19 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Tajikistan, FY15-18 ($, millions) Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY15 24.4 6.8 17.5 - 2.5 15.0 FY16 34.4 6.9 27.5 2.4 25.1 FY17 30.8 7.3 23.5 2.3 21.2 FY18 46.5 8.7 37.8 2.7 35.1 Report Total 136.1 29.8 106.3 - 9.9 96.4 Source: World Bank Client Connection 5/30/18 Annexes CLR Review 35 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Tajikistan ($, millions) Development Partners 2015 2016 2017 All Donors, Total 427.05 342.56 303.91 DAC Countries, Total 136.19 116.49 112.38 Australia .. 0.11 0.07 Austria 0.21 0.47 0.23 Canada 1.4 1.08 0.59 Czech Republic 0.05 0.06 0.05 Denmark 0.05 -0.01 0 Finland 2.23 1.77 1.24 France 2.63 0.15 0.16 Germany 30.95 23.79 24.31 Hungary 0.01 0.01 0 Italy 0.17 .. 0.01 Japan 17.82 31.04 24.09 Korea 0.83 0.31 1.12 Luxembourg 0.25 0.19 0.16 Netherlands .. 0.1 0.15 Norway 1.36 0.6 1.76 Poland 0.37 0.06 0.19 Slovak Republic 0.06 0.01 0 Slovenia .. .. 0 Spain 0.01 .. 0.01 Sweden 0.24 0.13 0.22 Switzerland 31.25 20.58 19.73 United Kingdom 18.43 5.93 2.95 United States 27.88 30.1 35.34 Multilaterals, Total 383.85 223.46 233.22 EU Institutions 28.35 24.56 22.94 International Monetary Fund, Total -10.96 -19.96 -25.33 IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) -10.96 -19.96 -25.33 Regional Development Banks, Total 177.99 118.4 99.19 Asian Development Bank, Total 176.85 104.91 98.16 Asian Development Bank [AsDB] 176.85 104.91 98.16 Islamic Development Bank [IsDB] 1.14 13.49 1.04 United Nations, Total 19.43 14.85 16.74 International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] 0.05 0.28 0.21 IFAD 8.75 4.29 5.88 International Labour Organisation [ILO] 0.09 0.07 0.4 Annexes CLR Review 36 Independent Evaluation Group Development Partners 2015 2016 2017 UNAIDS 0.09 0.06 0.01 UNDP 3.73 2.67 3.24 UNECE 0.05 0.06 .. UNFPA 0.72 0.75 0.75 UNHCR 1.73 1.74 1.69 UNICEF 2.75 2.62 3.16 UN Peacebuilding Fund [UNPBF] 0.01 0.86 0.69 WFP 0.98 0.37 0.1 World Health Organisation [WHO] 0.49 1.07 0.62 World Bank Group, Total 20.97 27.89 26.62 World Bank, Total 20.97 27.89 26.62 International Development Association [IDA] 20.97 27.89 26.62 Other Multilateral, Total 22.45 22.98 29.06 Climate Investment Funds [CIF] 0.33 .. .. Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 3.93 2.49 4.73 Global Environment Facility [GEF] 2.32 2.01 1.51 Global Fund 6.44 10.07 19.08 OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] 2.02 1.28 -3.4 OSCE 7.41 7.12 7.14 Non-DAC Countries, Total 32.58 -0.45 -0.87 Azerbaijan 0.52 .. .. Estonia 0.15 0.05 0.01 Israel 0.14 0.06 .. Kazakhstan 6.37 0.89 1.34 Kuwait 2.12 3.1 .. Latvia 0.02 0.01 0.02 Lithuania 0 0 .. Romania 0 0 .. Russia 21.76 13.66 16.1 Thailand 0.01 0.05 0.01 Turkey 0.7 1.58 2.98 United Arab Emirates 0.14 9.29 1.72 Source: OECD Stat. DAC2a as of 1/28/19 * Data only available up to FY17 Annexes CLR Review 37 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Tajikistan, 2015-2018 Tajikistan ECA** World Series Name 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015-2018 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 6.0 6.9 7.6 .. 6.8 2.3 2.8 GDP per capita growth 3.7 4.6 5.4 .. 4.6 1.8 1.6 (annual %) GNI per capita, PPP 3,360.0 3,500.0 3,690.0 .. 3,516.7 19,960.9 16,267.9 (current international $) GNI per capita, Atlas 1,240.0 1,110.0 990.0 .. 1,113.3 8,387.9 10,438.1 method (current $) Inflation, consumer 5.7 6.0 .. .. 5.9 2.5 1.7 prices (annual %) Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added 21.9 20.4 .. .. 5.1 3.6 (% of GDP) Industry, value added 24.4 27.2 .. .. 29.1 25.6 (% of GDP) Services, value added 42.5 42.2 54.8 64.8 (% of GDP) Gross fixed capital 28.2 30.7 .. .. 29.5 22.7 23.3 formation (% of GDP) External Accounts Exports of goods and 10.5 12.9 15.7 .. 13.1 33.7 31.6 services (% of GDP) Imports of goods and 42.2 42.0 41.0 .. 41.8 32.0 30.3 services (% of GDP) Current account balance (6.0) (5.2) 2.1 .. (% of GDP) External debt stocks (% 55.5 64.9 71.3 .. of GNI) Total debt service (% of 3.3 7.7 8.6 .. 8.8 GNI) Total reserves in months 1.7 2.4 4.9 .. 9.0 12.9 of imports Fiscal Accounts /1 General government 29.9 29.9 29.7 28.6 29.5 revenue (% of GDP) General government total 31.8 39.7 36.5 36.3 36.1 expenditure (% of GDP) General government net lending/borrowing (% of (1.9) (9.8) (6.8) (7.7) -6.5 GDP) General government 34.3 42.0 50.4 52.7 44.9 gross debt (% of GDP) Health Life expectancy at birth, 70.9 71.1 .. .. 71.0 73.1 71.9 total (years) Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 96.0 96.0 96.0 .. 96.0 91.7 85.3 months) Annexes CLR Review 38 Independent Evaluation Group Tajikistan ECA** World Series Name 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015-2018 People using safely managed sanitation .. .. .. .. 39.3 services (% of pop) People using at least basic drinking water 74.1 .. .. .. 74.1 96.1 88.5 services (% of pop) Mortality rate, infant (per 31.3 30.3 29.4 .. 30.3 11.6 30.3 1,000 live births) Education School enrollment, 10.2 10.6 10.2 .. 59.3 preprimary (% gross) School enrollment, 95.2 95.7 98.8 .. 100.6 primary (% gross) School enrollment, .. .. .. .. 99.1 secondary (% gross) School enrollment, 26.3 28.8 30.9 .. 66.6 tertiary (% gross) Population population, total 8,548,651 8,734,951 8,921,343 .. 8,734,982 455,329,312 7,444,025,652 population growth 2.2 2.2 2.1 .. 2.2 0.5 1.2 (annual %) Urban population (% of 26.7 26.9 27.0 .. 26.9 66.0 54.4 total) Rural population (% of 73.3 73.1 73.0 .. 34.0 45.6 total pop) Poverty Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 4.8 .. .. .. 10.0 PPP) (% of pop) Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines 31.3 .. .. .. (% of pop) Rural poverty headcount ratio at national poverty 35.2 .. .. .. lines (% of rural pop) Urban poverty headcount ratio at 23.2 .. .. .. national poverty lines (% of urban pop) GINI index (World Bank 34.0 .. .. .. estimate) Source: WB World Development Indicators DataBank 1/24/19 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2018 (Estimates start after 2017) ** IDA & IBRD Countries ***no data available for 2018 Annexes CLR Review 39 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Tajikistan ($, millions) Investments Committed in FY15-FY18 Project Cmt Project Net Net Primary Sector Name Project Size Net Comm ID FY Status Loan Equity 40023 2018 Active Wholesale and Retail Trade 2.0 2.0 - 2.0 36576 2016 Closed Finance & Insurance 1.0 - - - 34671 2015 Active Finance & Insurance 22.5 15.0 - 15.0 34955 2015 Active Finance & Insurance 16.3 5.0 - 5.0 34997 2015 Closed Finance & Insurance 5.0 2.5 - 2.5 35287 2015 Closed Finance & Insurance 0.2 - - - 35502 2015 Closed Finance & Insurance 0.3 0.2 - 0.2 35522 2015 Active Finance & Insurance 0.5 0.5 - 0.5 36506 2015 Closed Finance & Insurance 0.6 0.1 - 0.1 36655 2015 Closed Finance & Insurance 0.2 - - - Sub-Total 48.6 25.3 - 25.3 Investments Committed pre-FY15 but active during FY15-18 Project CMT Project Net Net Net Primary Sector Name Project Size ID FY Status Loan Equity Comm 34211 2014 Active Information 32.0 30.0 - 30.0 34332 2014 Active Finance & Insurance 5.0 5.0 - 5.0 Accommodation & Tourism 27047 2009 Active 55.1 7.0 - 7.0 Services 26439 2008 Active Finance & Insurance 2.0 10.6 - 10.6 10255 2003 Active Electric Power 27.2 8.0 3.5 8.0 11254 2003 Active Textiles, Apparel & Leather 12.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 Sub-Total 133.9 63.6 6.5 63.6 TOTAL 182.5 88.9 6.5 88.9 Source: IFC-MIS Project Extract as of 12/06/18 Annexes CLR Review 40 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Tajikistan ($, millions) Advisory Services Approved in FY15-18 Impl Impl Primary Project Project Total Project Name Start End Business ID Status Funds, $ FY FY Line 602643 Tajikistan PPP 2018 2018 ACTIVE CAS 15.0 602816 Shadow Banking in Tajikstan 2018 2018 ACTIVE EFI 30.0 600435 Azerbaijan Central Asia Mobile Banking Project 2016 2019 ACTIVE EFI 2,940.0 Electronic & Digital Financial Services project in 601347 2016 2021 ACTIVE EFI 2,981.5 Azerbaijan and Central Asia 600560 TCell Mobile Money AS Project 2015 2016 CLOSED FIG 120.0 Sub-Total 6,086.5 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY15 but active during FY15-18 Impl Impl Primary Project Project Total Project Name Start End Business ID Status Funds, $ FY FY Line 599521 Central Asia Agri finance Project 2014 2020 ACTIVE EFI 5,878.1 600076 Tajikistan Cold Storage 2014 2018 CLOSED CAS 400.1 593647 CASA-1000 2013 2019 ACTIVE CAS 5,305.0 597647 Tajikistan Infrastructure Investment 2013 2018 ACTIVE EFI 1,917.5 Tajikistan Business Regulation and Investment 599048 2013 2018 ACTIVE EFI 3,271.5 Policy Project 599373 Central Asia Corporate Governance Project II 2013 2017 ACTIVE ESG - Central Asia Corporate Governance Project in 599627 2013 2018 ACTIVE ESG 2,868.4 Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic Phase II 569390 Tajikistan FM Infrastructure 2010 2019 ACTIVE EFI 2,737.1 563487 Access Bank of Tajikistan 2009 2015 CLOSED FIG 1,225.0 563790 Transformation for MFIs in Tajikistan 2009 2018 ACTIVE FIG 3,726.8 Sub-Total 27,329.7 TOTAL 33,416.2 Source: IFC AS Portal Data as of 12/11/18 Annexes CLR Review 41 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 14: IFC net commitment activity in Tajikistan, FY15 - FY18 ($, millions) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Long-term Investment Commitment Financial Markets 24.0 (0.0) (1.0) - 23.0 Trade Finance 0.2 1.7 0.8 0.4 3.1 Agribusiness & Forestry (2.2) - - - (2.2) Tourism, Retail, Construction & Real Estates (TRP) - - - 2.0 2.0 - - - - - - - - - - Total IFC Long Term Investment Commitment 22.0 1.6 (0.2) 2.4 25.8 Short-term Finance/Trade Finance / Average 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 1.5 Outstanding Balance (GTFP) Source: IFC MIS as of 1/29/19 Note: IFC began reporting average outstanding short-term commitments (not total commitments) in FY15 and no longer aggregates short-term commitments with long-term commitments. IEG uses net commitment number for IFC's long-term investment. For trade finance guarantees under GTFP, average commitment numbers have been used. Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Projects Active in Tajikistan, 2015-2018 Max Project ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Gross Status Issuance No MIGA Projects Total - Source: MIGA 1/29/19