90487 • • • • I • WFP J'ooH THE WORLD BANK IBRD •IDA wfp.org . " ' • Foreword Poverty maps are powerful visuals that enable government c1 vH soc1 ety and development partners to identify poorer areas with greater accuracy. In Bangladesh. there Is considerable demand from policy makers. planners. and researchers for more disaggregated poverty estimates to better understand the geographical variations and spatial inequality in growth and poverty. • Responding to this demand. the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics initiated the poverty mapping exercise in September 2012. The World Bank and the World Food Programme (WFP) are pleased to have had tho opportunity to contribute to this updating exercise. The initiative produced poverty estimates for key sub-national administrative units us1ng data from both the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) as well as the 2011 Population Census. and we hope the maps produced will strengthen the targeting of policy interventions and programs. building on the 1mproved knowledge of local conditions. Poverty estimates for Bangladesh based on both the HIES and the poverty mapping exercises show that Rangpur and Barisal divisions have the highest incidence of poverty. while Chittagong and Sylhet have the lowest. The poverty maps have also been compared with other correlates of poverty - such as educational attainment of household heads and the average agricultural wage rate of laborers. The aim is for this mapping exercise to help policy makers make better informed decisions about poverty reduction Initiatives and design programs that serve those who need help the most. With strong commitment sound policies. and effective government. Bangladesh has enormous potential to offer 1ts people a better. brighter future. We look forward to furthenng our partnership with the Government of Bangladesh and development partners to jointly tackle development challenges faced by the people of Bangladesh - to end poverty and boost shared prosperity in the country. Johannes Zutt Golam Mostafa Kamal Christa R~der Country Director Director General Country Representative World Bank Bangladesh Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics World Food Programme r 1 \ Acknowledgements The World Bank team involved in preparation of the Poverty \ Maps included Faizuddin Ahmed, Naomi Ahmad, Mehar Akhter Khan, Dean Jolliffe, Mehrin A Mahbub, lftath Sharif, Nobuo Yoshida, and Salman Zaidi (task leader}, working under the guidance of Vinaya Swaroop (Sector Manager, SASEP} and Johannes Zutt (Country Director, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan). The World Food Programme (WFP) team included Mahabubul Alam, Nusha Choudhury, and Kayenat Kabir, working under the guidance of Christa Rader (Country Representative, WFP). The BBS team included Md. Zahidul Hoque Sardar, Dipankar Roy, AKM Tahidullslam, Md. Abdul Latif, Dinesh Roy, Enayet Hossain, Md. Rezaul Karim, and Md. Jibon Miah. Faizuddin Ahmed spearheaded the extensive analytical work to derive the regionally disaggregated poverty estimates using the 2010 HIES and 201 1 Population Census data sets. Mahabubul Alam and Faizuddin Ahmed prepared the various poverty maps presented in this report using GIS software. The team acknowledges the leadership and support of Mr. Md. Nojibur Rahman (Secretary, Statistics and Informatics Division} and Mr. Golam Mostafa Kamal (Director General, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics}. The team would like to thank members of the technical committee and the steering committee, who carefully reviewed both the methodology used as well as the results of the Poverty Mapping work. The team is also grateful to the UK Department for International Development (DFID} and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD} for their financial support for the preparation and publication of the Poverty Maps. • 3 • Introduction Poverty mapping is a statistical exercise to estimate the incidence of poverty at sub-national levels to Administrative Structure of Bangladesh enable the government, civil society organizations, and development partners to accurately identify locations with a relatively higher concentration of poor people. Due to the considerable demand from Districts and Upazilas in number policy makers, planners, and researchers for more disaggregated poverty estimates, the current poverty Districts Upazilas mapping exercise was initiated in September 2012 by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the World Bank, and the World Food Programme (WFP) to produce reliable poverty estimates for key sub- national administrative units (zila and upazila) using data from both the 2010 Household Income and Expenditure SuNey (HIES) and the 2011 Population Census.1 According to this latest population census conducted by BBS, the total population of Bangladesh was about 150 million. For administrative 64 Districts 544 Upazllas In Bangladesh In Bangladesh purposes the country is divided Into 7 divisions. 64 districts. and 544 upazilas/thanas. The HIES is conducted by BBS every 4-5 years. and is the main source of data for official poverty related statistics in Bangladesh. The World Bank has By Division provided extensive technical assistance to BBS over • Districts • Upazilas the past two decades to help improve the quality and timeliness of data collected through this suNey. The official poverty estimates are computed from the Dhaka 163 HIES at the National and Division-level only due to the Chittagong limited sample size of the suNey. According to the latest 2010 HIES based estimates. Rajshahi poverty incidence in Bangladesh varies from a low of Rang pur 26.2 percent in Chittagong division to a high of 42.3 percent in Rang pur division. Similarly, extreme poverty Khulna incidence (i.e. estimates based on the lower poverty line) vanes from 13.1 percent in Chittagong division to Sylhet 27.7 percent in Rangpur division. Barlsal ' Two other such poverty mapping exercises have been carried out earlter in Bangladesh us1 ng data from (I) the 2000 HIES and 2001 Population census and (II) the 2005 HIES and the 2001 PopulatiOn census. 2 The deflnlllon of the upper and lowet' poveny lines can be found in the 2013 Bangladesh -Poverty Assessment Assessing a decade of progress in reducing poverty. 2000-2010. 4 Upper and Lower Poverty Estimates for Bangladesh (20 10 HIES) 2 Headcount Poverty Rate (Bangladesh) Percent Poverty Mapping Methodology The poverty mapping methodology used in this exercise is the Bangladesh so-called ELL method developed by Elbers et al. (2003) using 31.5% Upper Poverty Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques The ELL method, which Line has been widely tested and validated around the world, takes advantage of the strengths of both sources of data used in such exercises. 17.6% Lower Poverty The HIES includes the extremely rich data collected in an integrated household survey, including expenditure data. Line However this is for a relatively limited sample of households. On the other hand, the Population Census includes all households in the country, but collects data on a limited set of topics. The Headcount Poverty Rate (Division) Percent two data sets, HIES and Population Census, have common set of explanatory variables. The SAE technique uses the parameter Upper Poverty Line • Lower Poverty Line estimates from a consumption model derived using the 20 10 HIES data to predict/simulate consumption data for each census L Dhaka household. These predicted/simulated consumption data lor all 2011 census households are then used to estimate poverty rates Chlttagong at the zila and upazila level using the same poverty lines used to derive the official poverty estimates using the 2010 HIES data.3 Rajshahi Poverty estimates for the Bangladesh Poverty Map and Extreme Rang pur Poverty Maps were derived by using the upper and lower poverty lines in the HIES 201 0 published by BBS, which were Khutna also used in the World Bank's latest Poverty Assessment.~ The spatial distribution of poverty in Bangladesh at the upazila level is Sythet presented in the two maps on the next pages. Barisat 3Further details on methodology used to de~ve these esumates can be found In the Poveny Mapping technical repon (available upon request from the World Bank Dhaka Olflce). Source: 2013 Bangladesh Poveny Assessment. World Bank • ~ladesh ·Poverty Assessment Assessing a decade ofprogress In redUCing poveny, 20(X}2010. World Bank 2013. 5 Bangladesh Poverty Map Proportion of Population below lndtn (Wesl Bengal) the *Upper Poverty Line 2010 India *Note: The Upper poverty line corresponds to the moderate poor (Assam) households whose food expenditure is at the level of the food poverty line us1ng the Cosl of Basic Needs/CBN method. Ref: Report of the Household Income £i Expenditure Survey/HIES 2010. BBS GoB. India (Wcs1 13cngal) India (Mcghnlnyn) India (Assam) Bo r India (Tripura) India (Wcsl llcngnl) Bay ofBengal Pcrccntaf(c ol' th e Popuhuion l'oot· f\dminislrnlivc Bou ndnry ....c===----c=~ Km IS% or less lntcmalional Boundary 0 25 50 75 100 16% - 27% Divisional Boundary 'llle .ndmln i~l ffl th'< boundnrlei wl •• 1\JIIliC:~< ~o.l~n M lhu; tnllp do nQI hnpf) vfhdal Cll\IU111it.•mt:ll1 (Ill 11/XCplalX'C by - - Dis1ric1 Oou ndary the Unilcd N:ulon!i, lhe Wt Bengal) the *Lower Poverty Line 2010 India • Note: The Lower poveny line corresponds to the extreme poor (Assam) households whose total expendlturesareequal to the food poverty line using the COst of Basic Needs/CBN method. Ref: Report of the Household Income &Expenditure Survey/HIES 2010. BBS GoB. India (West Bengal ) India (Meghalaya) India \u r 1111 (Assam) \ IJ ,JI' l'abn India (Tripurn) India randpur (WcstUcngnl) Bhola ( ' hittH •~ Jl V ~ Band ~rban Bay ofBengal l'erccnhlgc of t he l' olltll ntion Extreme Poor 6% or lc>S AdminislnHivc Bo undary - - lmcrnational Boundary ---===----==::J 0 25 50 75 100 Km 7%. 15% Di visional Bou ndary Ullll\'<: bOUIId.'ll'lt:i tmlhtt India N.•og-.wn (Assam) Bogm ./Sylhet M>uh ob:llllr Hobig>nj Pabna Kus:htia India (Tripura) Indio (West Bengnl) Rang:unati 'lo>khalo Uhola I Bandari>:on Bay of Bet~gal 0 IS 30 60 90 Percentage of the Population Poor International Boundary [_ 20% or less 37%- 46% Division Boundary Myanmar c 21 %- 29% 4 7% or greater District Boundary 30%- 36% River I Ocean Upazila Poverty Map HCR Upper Poverty Line India (West Oengnl) India (West Bengal) India (Mcghalaya) NIIOgdOO Sunamganj India (Assam) Tongod India (Tripum) India (West Bengal) Jessore Rangamati Bay of Benxal .:::IIICJ--..:===---•K 0 IS 30 60 90 120 m Percentage of the Population Poor - - International Boundary Myanmar Division Boundary 15% or less 39%- 49% District Boundary 16%- 27% 50% or greater Upat:ila Boundary 28%-38% River I Ocean Key Correlates of Poverty Incidence in Bangladesh The reliability of the poverty maps can be evaluated by comparing the estimates obtained from the poverty mapping exercise with the results of the PerceptiOn SuNey on Relative Prevalence of Poverty commissioned by the WFP in 2014 in 16 districts across Bangladesh. The results reveal a very high correlation between the two sets of poverty estimates, and provide strong corroborating evidence of the robustness of disaggregated poverty estimates obtained from the P overty Mapping exercise. The poverty maps can also be compared with other geographic and regional characteristics that are likely correlated w1th poverty incidence. The Poverty Map and Average Agricultural Wage Rate of Male Laborers Zila Poverty Map HCR Upper Poverty Line India (Wcsl Bengal) India (West Bengal) lndi:t (Meghalnya) SunamglnJ India (Assam) llobipnJ Ku!r>hlln India (Tripurn) India (West Bengal) Rangatn.lti Bay of Bengal 0 IS 30 60 90 Percentage of the Population Poor International Boundary 20% or less 21 %-29% 37% - 46% 4 7% or greater - Division Boundary - - District Boundary Myanmar 30%-36% Ri ver I Ocean The maps contrast poverty rates with average agricultural wages rates (BBS datal. and illustrate the negative association between these two variables. Darker areas on the maps correspond to areas with high poverty rates and low wage rates. Average Agriculture Wage Rate Jamalpur Bogra Region Region Dhaka Region Noakhali Region "·- r ~.J/ '·~ "'\~ \ /) . .. . Regi Bay of Bengal . ./ I \ Wage Rate (BOT) 86 - 102 141- 164 103 - 118 165 - 211 0 35 i :::::::=70 140 119 - 140 KM The Poverty Map and Educational Attainment of Household Heads Zila Poverty Map HCR Upper Poverty Line India (Wesl Bengal) India ( Wcs1Ocngnl) lndiu (Meghnlayn) NJO¥;wn SunlmJ-11\J Sylh