102815 China Transport Topics No. 15 January 2016 High-Speed Railways in China: An Update on Passenger Profiles Nanyan Zhou, Richard Bullock, Ying Jin, Martha Lawrence and Gerald Ollivier World Bank Office, Beijing Two Chinese high-speed rail (HSR) projects supported by World Bank loans - the Nanning-Guangzhou (Nanguang) and Guiyang-Guangzhou (Guiguang) - began operations in late December 2014. The services have connected the peripheral provinces of Guangxi and Guizhou to the economically advanced province of Guangdong. The travel time between Nanning and Guangzhou was reduced from 13 hours to three hours, 19 minutes and that between Guiyang and Guangzhou from 21 hours to four hours, nine minutes, thus making a step change to transport access. The World Bank has conducted surveys on board the high speed and conventional trains in the Nanguang and Guiguang corridors to understand the profiles of the passengers and the extent to which the new services have influenced how they travel on those two routes. This has expanded our evidence base to cover the South China routes, building on the surveys we conducted previously between Changchun-Jilin in the North East, and between Tianjin and Jinan on the Beijing-Shanghai line. INTRODUCTION Nanning, a mixed-traffic line for passenger services (top speed 200 km/hr), and freight trains By the end of 2014, China Railway had built a (at speeds of up to 100 km/hr). network of over 16,000 route-km of high-speed railways (HSR) 1 , connecting the fast-growing On-board passenger surveys were conducted on coastal centers and some inland cities. More lines, these two services about three months into their currently under construction or at the planning operations. The surveys provide a first picture of stage, will largely complete its coastal network the passenger profiles and the findings are and provide a step change in HSR access to the summarized here under three main headings: (i) economically under-developed central and socio-economic characteristics of the passengers western regions (See HSR map.) and their purposes of travel; (ii) access to and from the stations; and (iii) impacts on travel Two HSR projects, supported by World Bank patterns. We also compare the results with two loans, were completed and went into operation similar surveys undertaken in 2013 on high-speed at the end of 2014: the Guiguang line between lines between Changchun and Jilin, and between Guangzhou and Guiyang, a passenger-dedicated Tianjin and Jinan2. line with a top speed of 250 km/hr, and the Nanguang Railway between Guangzhou and 1 For the purpose of this note, the HSR includes both the 2 dedicated new passenger lines with a design speed of 200 See China Transport Topic No.11 High-Speed Railways in km per hour or above, and new passenger-freight lines with China: A Look at Traffic a maximum design speed of 200 km per hour. 1 China Transport Topics No. 15 January 2016 Figure 1. China Railway-HSR and new 200 km/h Railways , (Operational, under construction and planned by December 31, 2014) Mapped by the authors based on data from China Transportation and Communications Year Books, China Railway Yearbooks, and CRC website Legend Operating, 200 km/h Operating, Legend 250 km/h Operating, 200 km/h Operating, 350 Operating, 250 km/h km/h Under Construction, Operating, 350 km/h 200 km/h Under Construction, 200 km/h Under Construction, 250 km/h Guiguang Line Under Construction, 250 km/h Under UnderConstruction, 350 km/h Construction, 350 km/h Planned, 250 km/h Planned, 250 km/h Planned, 350 km/h Planned, 350 km/h Nanguang LINE DESCRIPTION eight stations in between, with an average travel time of 322 minutes. The planned station for Guiguang HSR has 857km of double-track from Yangshuo (which is one of the most popular Guiyang North Station to Guangzhou South via tourist destinations in China) was not yet open Guilin in Guangxi Province. This line crosses a when the survey was conducted. Neither were mountainous area through a karst landscape. the smaller Wutong and GuilinXi Stations. Over 23% of the line consists of bridges and Demand for January – March 2015, as estimated viaducts, and about 54.5% is in tunnels. There are by the GuiGuang Rail Company, was an average eight stations in Guizhou Province, eight in of 53,000 passengers per day (which implies Guangxi and six in Guangdong. The line opened around 19 million p.a.). Most trains were on December 26, 2014. There were on average completely full all the way and in many cases 10 pairs of trains between Guiyang and there were standing passengers for up to 10% of Guangzhou every day, and 24 pairs between seating capacity. Guilin and Guangzhou from March 2015. Only one pair of non-stop trains travel between The ticket fare between Guiyang and Guangzhou Guiyang and Guangzhou with the quickest travel is RMB 321 for first class and 267.5 for second time of 249 minutes. The others stop at three to class. It used to take 17 hours by bus and 21 2 China Transport Topics No. 15 January 2016 hours by conventional train (on a different, First class respectively. Rail fares are currently circuitous rail route) with similar levels of fares, very competitive with, if not cheaper than, bus compared with the travel time now by HSR train tickets. Long distance bus services within the of 4-5.4 hours. Bus services between Guilin and corridor to and from Wuzhou and Guigang have the cities along the corridor have been reduced been reduced sharply, typically by up to 50%, sharply, with most long distance services being with few end-to-end passengers on long-distance canceled. Air fares have been discounted trips other than those who could not obtain rail significantly, with the air fare now becoming tickets. The flights between Nanning and lower than train tickets. Moreover, direct flights Guangzhou dropped from nine per day to three. from Guiyang to Guilin (420km) have been canceled.3 THE ON-BOARD SURVEYS Nanguang line runs from Nanning East Station to During March 25-April 14, 2015 a sample of 971 Guangzhou South Station, with a total length of interviews were conducted on 18 train services 577 km. There are seven stations in Guangxi (including 10 pilot interviews on two trains) using Province and seven in Guangdong. The section students based in Guilin as interviewers. The from Nanning to Wuzhou started operation on survey forms were handed out at random to April 18, 2014, and the rest of the line opened on about every second or third row, alternately to December 26, 2014. At the time the survey took the right and left of the aisle, with the aim of place, Foshan West station was not open. The obtaining 60-65 completed survey forms per train line service commenced with 18 pairs of trains on NG and 40-60 on GG. but, in order to meet demand, three more pairs Guiyang-Guangzhou were added in January and a further 10 added in On the Guiguang line, 467 interviews were March 2015. Only one pair of non-stop trains carried out on 12 trains: this includes the earliest operate between Nanning and Guangzhou per train from Guangzhou on both weekend and day with a travel time of 199 minutes. The others weekday days, and on the return trains from stop at three to five stations in between, with Guiyang in the afternoon or evening. The same some trains continuing to Liuzhou and Beihai applied for Guiyang to Guangzhou services. beyond Nanning. A daily through train was Surveys were also conducted on the first and last scheduled from Nanning to Shenzhen via trains from Guilin to Guangzhou. Guangzhou south from March 2015, and more pairs of such services may be added subject to Surveys were undertaken on Mondays and local demand. Demand for January – March 2015 Fridays, together with another weekday. was estimated by the Nanguang Rail Company as Interviews were also undertaken on Saturdays. 46,000 per day on average (which implies around The table below shows the 12 trains selected and 17 million p.a.). interviews obtained on each train. The price of tickets between Nanning and Guangzhou is RMB 169 and 202 for Second and 3 http://gz.people.com.cn/n/2014/1230/c194827-2338949 0.html 3 China Transport Topics No. 15 January 2016 Table 1. Selected trains for Guiguang Line and number of surveys collected on each train Train No. Dep. Guilin Dep. Guangzhou Dep. Guiyang Sample Note Saturday D2804 730 38 To Guiyang Tuesday D2804 1033 34 Ex Guangzhou Friday D2808 1439 59 Ex Guangzhou Monday D2810 1325 34 To Guiyang Saturday D2844 2000 53 To Guilin Monday D2833 825 49 Starts Guilin Wednesday D2801(pilot) 731 4 Thursday D2809 1432 52 Ex Guiyang Wednesday D2813(pilot) 1320 6 Tuesday D2815 1549 35 To Guangzhou Friday G2905 1851 52 Guilin to Shenzhen Friday D2819 1738 51 To Guangzhou Note: (1) Trains with odd numbers are running towards Guangzhou, and trains with even numbers are leaving from Guangzhou. (2) Ordered by departure time of the day by direction (leaving from or arriving at Guangzhou) Nanning-Guangzhou and six on weekdays. The table below shows the trains surveyed on Nanguang line and the The trains on the Nanguang line were similarly completed interviews on each train. selected, with four trains that left in the morning and noon from Nanning, returning in the afternoon and evening separately. The same pattern was used for trains from Guangzhou to Nanning. 504 samples were collected from these eight trains, two of which were on the weekend Table 2. Selected trains for NanGuang Line and number of surveys collected on each train Train No. Dep. Naning Dep. Guangzhou Sample Note Monday D3601 700 65 Tuesday G2911 1130 60 To Shenzhen Saturday D3617 1450 59 Friday D3621 1700 70 Friday D3632 740 58 To Beihai Saturday D3606 940 67 4 China Transport Topics No. 15 January 2016 Monday D3614 1315 60 Tuesday D3620 1735 65 Note: Ordered by departure time of the day on one direction (leaving from or arriving at Guangzhou) SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS AND TRIP Jinghu and Changji HSR (62% and 52% 4 PURPOSE respectively). The Nanguang line had almost half of its trips for business, similar to the Changji The predominant group of passengers was corridor. between 19 and 40 year old, accounting for about 80 percent. This is similar, albeit slightly younger, to the passengers travelling on the Jilin-Changchun and Jinan-Tianjin HSR lines. Men 100% Guiguang Nanguang accounted for approximately 64% of passengers Changji Jinghu and women 36%, similar to the Changji and 80% 62% 61% Jinghu line. 52% 52% 60% 48% 39% Guiguang Nanguang 40% 36% 40% 28% Changji Jinghu 30% 20% 9% 10% 4% 1% 20% 0% Business Leisure Other 10% Purpose 0% Figure 3. Trip Purpose 0 20 40 60 80 Age The survey results indicated that the high speed rail services were used by a broad range of Figure 2. Age Distribution of Passengers income levels, with over 40% of travelers with an average monthly income of RMB 4000 or lower From the results of passenger survey, the female (Figure 4). On the Nanguang line, the average passengers tend to be younger and with lower self-reported monthly personal income was income. Travelling for leisure accounts for a around RMB 5500, and this was similar for larger proportion for women’s trip purpose (59% Guiguang (RMB 5900). The equivalent values on on NG and 76% on GG) than men’s (49% on NG the Tianjin-Jinan and Changchun-Jilin HSR were and 55% on GG). RMB 6700 and 4300 respectively in 2013. As The Guiguang line is famous for its attractive expected, people in the 30-55 age group have the tourist destinations along the corridor, so it is not highest average income. surprising that a large portion (61%) of passengers were travelling for tourism and leisure. Business trips thus only accounted for 36% 4 Revised from CTT 11 High-Speed Railways in China: on Guiguang HSR, substantially less than on the A Look at Traffic, with small traders included. 5 China Transport Topics No. 15 January 2016 Caution is of course required with the (a) Income by line self-reported income figures, as richer individuals 100% 9000 tend to understate their incomes to some extent 90% 8000 in all countries5. In addition, the survey was taken 80% 7000 before and after Tomb-sweeping Day, when 70% 6000 60% Income migrant workers visit home according to Chinese 5000 50% tradition. Part of the success of HSR is that the 4000 40% HSR train ticket on Guiguang and Nanguang 30% 3000 corridor is similar or cheaper compared to the 20% 2000 10% 1000 alternative transport modes. 0% 0 <=18 19-25 26-30 31-40 41-50 51-55 56-60 61-65 >=66 100% 80% Age Range Average Income 60% (b) Income by age 40% Figure 4. Monthly Income (RMB) 20% Many of the passengers are travelling between the main centers. On Guiguang, 41% of those 0% Guiguang Nanguang interviewed were travelling all the way between Guiyang and Guangzhou, possibly influenced by none <2000 2001-4000 the high proportion of tourists to Guiyang, the 4001-6000 6000-10000 >10000 limited number of trains stopping at intermediate stations and the difficulty of obtaining tickets for impromptu travel. A similarly high proportion on the Nanguang line are from one end to another. In addition, 13% of the interviewed passengers travelled between Guangzhou and stations beyond Nanning, e.g. Beihai Railway, and some trips are thus longer than the Nanguang line itself. (Figure 5) 5 See, e.g. review by Chris Bramall (2011). The Quality of China’s Household Income Surveys. SOAS working paper. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/10693/1/QualityofChinasHous eholdIncomeSurveys.pdf 6 China Transport Topics No. 15 January 2016 45% Guangzhou South Station (21% bus and 48% Guiguang Nanguang 40% metro), accounting for 69% of interviewed 35% travelers, followed by taxi (15%) and private car 30% (11%) reflecting the good connectivity of the 25% station. 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Other Walk Private 1% 2% car 18% Trip Distance on Train (km) Taxi 20% Company car Figure 5. Travel Distance Distribution 4% Access/Egress to Stations Public The transport mode used to access HSR stations transport 55% reflects the differences in where the stations are placed in the cities. Most stations on these lines (a) Guiyang-Guangzhou are located several kilometers away from the current city centers. Some of the station squares Walk Other 3% and facilities are still under construction, and bus 1% services were limited at the time of the surveys. For instance, passengers have to walk for a long Private distance at Yunfu between the station building Company car Taxi car 18% 21% and the parking lot/bus station; and for Guigang 3% city, though the HSR station is located near city center, passengers have to climb many steep stairs from the parking lot to reach the station Public building without any ramp or elevator. Reflecting transport 54% the inconveniences surrounding many of the HSR stations, only 27% of travelers chose public (b) Nanning-Guangzhou transport6 to/from railway stations, while 34% of them took taxis. This is similar to the pattern occurring on the Tianjin-Jinan corridor, where only 29% of passengers took public transport while 38% took a taxi. (Figure 6). In contrast, public transport was the predominant mode for 6 public transport includes bus, coach, metro and tour bus provided by travel agencies 7 China Transport Topics No. 15 January 2016 Other book tickets well in advance, while businessman Private car Walk Cycle 1% could not get tickets when they needed them. 11% 2% 0% Company car Taxi 100% Guiguang Nanguang 2% 15% 83% 80% 69% 60% Public 40% 30% transport 69% 15% 20% 2% 1% (c) Guangzhou South Station 0% Business Personal Other (a) Trip Purpose for Generated Other Walk Traffic 0% 2% Private car 100% 13% 90% Cycle Company 13% 80% car 70% (Other personal 11% 60% trip) 50% (Tourism&VFR) 40% Public Taxi 30% transport 34% (Visiting 20% Friends&Relatives) 27% 10% (Tourism) 0% (d) Stations along NG&GG lines Guiguang Nanguang excluding Guangzhou South Station (b) Breakdown among Personal Trip Figure 6. Connecting Modes to Railway Stations Purpose IMPACT ON TRAVEL PATTERNS Figure 7. Trip Purpose for Generated Traffic The survey asked passengers if they would still Women are more likely to be a new travelers have undertaken the trip if the HSR service had than men. On Nanguang Railway survey, 21% of not been there. About 36 percent of the female interviewees are new travelers, while only passengers on Guiguang and 18 percent on 16% males are new travelers who would not Nanguang said that they would not have travel without the Nanguang railway. On undertaken the trip. Most of these passengers Guiguang, 45% of women and 30% of men are were on personal travel, with tourism as the main new travelers. trip purpose on Guiguang line (Figure 7). HSR also stimulated new business travel, in line with Though in general, men account for discussions with cities along the line. One reason approximately 64% of passengers and women 36% business trips were low on the Guiguang line was of this survey, the gender difference is less for the shortage of tickets. The travel agencies had to generated traffic, with 55% men and 45% women. 8 China Transport Topics No. 15 January 2016 For all transferred business travelers who would overall trip-making that has accompanied many travel by another mode if there were no HSR, HSR services is due to a combination of existing men are the dominant group (about 73%). travelers making trips more frequently as well as completely new travelers. The results also shows that men tend to take longer trips (Figure 8). 100% Private Ordinar 21% Compa 25% car 80% ny Car y Train 2% 15% 18% 60% Short 57% 58% Air Medium 40% 20% Long 20% Bus 21% 18% 45% 0% Men Women Figure 8. Trip Distance by Gender If HSR did not exist, 64% of the passengers on 100% 1% 3% 0% 1% 7% 2% Guiguang and 82% on Nanguang would still have 90% 2% Other travelled. On the Nanning-Guangzhou Corridor, 19% 19% almost half of the passengers would have chosen 80% 29% 2% Private car coach or bus, 20% air and 18% other trains. On 70% the Guiyang-Guangzhou corridor, over 70% of 60% Company Car short-distance passengers would use bus with 19% choosing private car with air as the main 50% 54% Bus alternative mode for medium and long distance 40% 40% 70% trips. The share of passengers that would select bus or non-HSR train as the alternative mode 30% Air reduces with increasing travel distance, as 20% expected, similar to the Beijing-Shanghai Ordinary 10% 24% 22% Train corridor. 0% 6% 0% The survey also asked if the passenger had Long Medium Short increased their travel frequency with HSR service by comparing travel frequencies on the route in Figure 9. Alternative Modes If the HSR Services 2014 with the planned trip frequency in 2015. Were to Stop Running for Nanning Guangzhou Over three-quarters (76%) of passengers (top chart) and Guiyang Guangzhou (bottom) reported more such trips will be taken in 2015 with an overall increase of 40-50%. Whilst such statements of future intent are often unreliable, ********** the responses indicate that the large increase in 9 China Transport Topics No. 15 January 2016 Nanyan Zhou is a transport consultant working with the World Bank and specializing in railway and traffic engineering. She is the lead author of this note, with contributions from Richard Bullock, Railways consultant to the World Bank, Ying Jin, Economic consultant to the World Bank, Martha Lawrence, Senior Railway Specialist at the Washington Office of the World Bank, and Gerald Ollivier, Transport Cluster Leader at the Singapore Office of the World Bank. This note is part of the China Transport Note Series to share experience about the transformation of the Chinese transport sector. For comments, please contact Nanyan Zhou (nzhou1@worldbank.org) or Gerald Ollivier (gollivier@worldbank.org). Any findings, interpretations, maps and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank. Neither the World Bank nor the author guarantee the accuracy of any data or other information contained in this document and accept no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. 10