For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects January 15, 2016 Taking Stock  Global equity markets tumbled as oil prices declined further. Stock markets around the world fell sharply on Friday as the renewed slide in oil prices heightened investors’ concerns about the global economy. A renewed wave of selling swept through U.S. stock markets as oil prices declined below $30 a barrel. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.4 percent to end at its lowest level since September 29, 2015. S&P 500 declined 2.3 percent and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.7 percent. China’s Shanghai index fell 3.6 percent.  U.S. IP and retail sales contracted in December. U.S. industrial production fell 0.4 percent (m/m) in December, the third monthly decline, following a revised 0.9 percent drop in November. The larger-than-expected December decline came as utilities reduced output amid unusually warm weather, and energy companies cut production in the face of falling oil prices. Separately, U.S. retail sales fell 0.1 percent (m/m) in December, consistent with expectations, following a revised 0.4 percent increase in November, due in part to the continued drop in sales at gas stations as gasoline prices remained low.  Euro Area IP contracted, investor sentiment declined. Euro Area industrial production declined 0.7 percent (m/m sa) in November, more than expected, following October’s revised 0.8 percent increase (Figure 1). The decrease in industrial production, the largest since August 2014, was triggered by a sharp decline in energy output that was linked to unusually warm weather across the Euro Area. Capital goods and durable consumer goods output also fell, while production of intermediate goods and non-durable consumer goods rose. Meanwhile, the Sentix investor sentiment index for the Euro Area dropped to 9.6 in January from 15.7 in December, partly on concerns about the Chinese economy.  India’s IP declined markedly, while inflation edged up. India's industrial production unexpectedly declined 3.2 percent (y/y) in November, following October’s 9.9 percent increase. The November’s contraction, the first in 13 months and the largest since October 2011, was due to a sharp decline in manufacturing output, which more than offset increases in mining output and electricity production. Separately, India’s consumer price inflation rate rose to 5.6 percent (y/y) in December, in line with expectations, from 5.4 percent in November, driven by higher food prices.  Tanzania GDP growth eased in Q3. Tanzania’s GDP advanced 6.3 percent (y/y) in Q3, compared to a 7.9 percent expansion in Q2 (Figure 2). Agriculture production slowed due to adverse weather conditions while construction, transport and storage, public administration and defense, and mining and quarrying expanded. In the first three quarters of 2015, the year-on-year GDP growth rate averaged 6.9 percent. FIGURE 1 Euro Area IP declined in November. FIGURE 2 Tanzania GDP growth eased in Q3. Euro Area industrial production Tanzania GDP Percent, m/m sa Percent, y/y IP growth Real GDP growth 1.5 12 3-month moving average 1.0 10 0.5 8 0.0 6 -0.5 4 -1.0 -1.5 2 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Sep-15 Mar-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-14 May-14 Mar-15 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG (Derek Chen). Number 289 | January 15, 2016 Weekly Insight: Key Channels of Growth Spillovers from Emerging Markets A growth slowdown in emerging markets, in particular in one or several of the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – could have significant spillovers to the rest of the world through trade and finance. Emerging markets have become major export destinations for the rest of the world as well as important sources of remittances, commodity supply and demand, foreign direct investment and official development assistance.  Reflecting their deepening integration into global supply chains, emerging markets now account for 32 percent of global trade, compared with 16 percent in 1994. The value added from emerging markets embedded in U.S. or Euro Area exports more than doubled to about 7 percent in 2011 from 3 percent in 2000. Among emerging markets, trade linkages with the BRICS, especially China, have increased in the last two decades. The BRICS accounted for most of the increase in trade flows to emerging markets and frontier markets between 2000 and 2014 (Figure 3). Most of the emerging markets’ value added trade with other emerging markets and frontier markets is with the BRICS. As the largest economies in their respective regions, the BRICS account for a sizeable share of regional exports.  The BRICS, in particular China, have played a significant role in global commodity markets. Rapid growth in China’s industrial production through the 2000s was accompanied by a sharp increase in demand for metals and energy. Virtually all of the increase in global metals demand and more than half of the increase in global primary energy demand between 2000 and 2014 originated in China (Figure 4). India’s demand for primary energy and metals has also grown rapidly but less than China’s, partly as a result of more services-based growth. Large emerging market and frontier market commodity producers have benefitted from this increased demand. Some emerging and frontier market economies accounted for 20 percent or more of the global exports of commodities such as nickel, copper, oil, and iron ore. Most commodity prices began to slide in early 2011 as new capacity came onstream at the same time as growth in major emerging markets increasingly tilted away from commodity-intensive industrial production.  Emerging markets have started playing a major role in global financing flows, including foreign direct investment, banking and portfolio investment, remittances, and official development assistance. Emerging markets have attracted a large amount of foreign direct investment – 30 percent of global FDI inflows, on average, during 2000-14. About two thirds of this amount have gone to the BRICS. China, the largest single recipient of foreign direct investment inflows among the BRICS, has also become an important source country for FDI, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and other natural resource- producing countries. Bank claims and portfolio investment to emerging markets have doubled since the early 2000s to about 6 percent and 5 percent of global GDP, respectively. BRICS account for a sizeable portion of these flows. Emerging markets are now among the largest source and destination countries for remittances. Five emerging market and frontier market source countries account for 20 percent of global remittance outflows. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries provided significant ODA to Egypt in 2000-14. China has become an important source of official development assistance to Sub- Saharan Africa while India is providing ODA to Bhutan amounting to 37 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2015/16. FIGURE 3 BRICS accounted for most of the increase in trade flows FIGURE 4 Most of the increase in global demand for primary to emerging markets and frontier markets during 2000-14. energy and metals in 2000-14 originated in China. Frontier market exports to emerging markets BRICS demand for key commodities. FM to EM excl. BRICS Percent Brazil China India Russia FM to BRICS excl. China 50 Percent FM to China 40 100 30 80 20 10 60 0 1990-94 2010-14 1990-94 2010-14 1990-94 2010-14 1990-94 2010-14 1990-94 2010-14 40 20 0 Edible Grains Oil Primary Metals 1980 1990 2000 2014 oils energy Source: Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS); OECD Trade in Value Source: BP Statistical Review; U.S. Department of Agriculture. Added (TiVA) database; World Bank Note: EM stands for emerging markets, FM stands for frontier markets, AM stands for advanced markets. Produced by DECPG (Mark Felsenthal). Number 289 | January 15, 2016 Major Data Releases Fri, 8 Jan - Thu, 14 Jan 2016 Upcoming releases: Fri, 15 Jan - Thu, 22 Jan 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous China 1/8/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% Germany 1/19/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 0.4% Finland 1/8/2016 Industrial Production (Y/Y) NOV -1.7% -1.2% -1.0% UK 1/19/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 0.1% Brazil 1/13/2016 Retail Sales (Y/Y) NOV -7.8% -9.0% -5.7% Japan 1/19/2016 Industrial Production (Y/Y) NOV 1.6% Australia 1/13/2016 Unemployment Rate DEC 5.8% 5.9% 5.8% China 1/20/2016 Retail Sales (Y/Y) DEC 11.2% Finland 1/14/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC -0.2 % -0.20 -0.2% United States 1/20/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 0.5% Turkey 1/15/2016 Unemployment Rate OCT 10.6% 10.4% 10.4% Malaysia 1/22/2016 Unemployment Rate DEC 3.1% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.5 4.0 1.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 2.0 - High Income Countries 0.7 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.5 3.1 2.1 -1.5 0.2 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 - Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.2 0.8 5.2 3.9 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.6 3.9 4.2 3.2 3.9 - East Asia and Pacific 9.4 9.0 7.5 7.7 6.7 8.5 1.7 6.8 5.3 8.5 7.7 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.4 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.7 5.9 5.0 5.1 - East Asia x. China 6.3 5.5 3.0 6.7 5.6 9.5 -4.0 2.8 5.4 4.8 0.9 3.2 5.5 4.3 3.1 5.0 4.3 2.2 6.5 5.1 1.8 3.1 4.4 4.3 1.4 - - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.3 3.3 1.0 1.6 0.0 2.6 3.9 3.9 2.9 3.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.2 -0.5 1.8 2.6 1.4 1.2 3.5 0.8 4.1 2.8 - - Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.3 0.3 -2.5 -4.7 -4.3 -4.8 -3.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.9 -1.1 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.0 -3.4 -2.1 -3.6 -4.0 -4.6 - - Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.7 -1.4 0.3 27.4 0.6 -17.8 13.2 - -7.3 -2.6 9.4 17.7 11.0 13.3 7.7 -0.7 -0.6 5.6 4.4 6.8 2.4 2.8 0.4 - - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.5 5.1 0.6 -1.8 12.5 8.3 3.2 4.7 1.6 1.9 3.5 -1.5 5.8 4.2 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.4 4.3 5.6 5.1 7.4 3.8 - - Sub-Saharan Africa 3.2 1.1 0.2 1.7 -5.9 9.3 -1.2 -5.4 5.9 0.6 -7.3 -0.6 6.2 1.4 -0.8 0.4 -1.2 0.1 3.6 -1.8 -0.3 -0.8 5.1 0.7 0.4 - - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.3 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.6 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 - Developing Countries 6.0 6.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 - East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 - Europe and Central Asia 9.0 6.5 7.9 7.9 8.5 8.9 9.1 10.7 9.8 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 8.6 8.3 9.0 9.8 11.0 11.0 10.1 9.7 9.7 10.1 10.1 11.2 Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 - Middle East and N. Africa 13.8 19.2 10.9 9.7 10.0 10.7 10.8 11.4 9.0 9.1 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.4 10.5 11.2 10.3 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.2 9.6 8.7 8.6 8.0 - South Asia 9.4 10.1 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 3.7 6.8 7.4 6.9 5.8 4.7 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.6 - Sub-Saharan Africa 11.1 8.1 9.0 9.2 9.7 8.4 7.5 8.4 8.8 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.2 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.8 9.0 - 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.3 1.8 1.0 4.0 0.8 -15.9 -27.4 -1.4 -5.6 3.4 5.2 0.8 2.6 -1.4 -4.5 -4.1 -11.0 -7.3 -13.3 -13.6 -13.5 -8.1 -13.7 -13.5 -12.3 -12.5 -10.7 High Income Countries -1.2 1.3 0.7 1.2 -3.2 -19.0 -28.9 0.4 -7.1 2.8 4.8 -0.5 0.8 -3.4 -6.4 -5.7 -12.8 -13.5 -13.7 -15.2 -15.4 -9.9 -15.0 -15.0 -13.2 -13.1 -10.7 Developing Countries 4.0 3.2 1.9 10.9 10.8 -8.5 -24.2 -5.4 -2.0 5.0 6.2 3.7 7.0 3.5 0.1 -0.3 -7.1 8.4 -12.4 -9.8 -9.1 -3.9 -10.7 -10.1 -10.4 -11.2 -10.7 East Asia and Pacific 6.2 6.4 4.6 18.9 17.6 -1.0 -15.7 -11.2 3.4 7.9 11.5 8.2 12.5 8.0 3.5 5.0 -3.4 29.5 -11.5 -6.5 -4.3 0.7 -7.8 -6.2 -5.4 -7.9 -7.6 Europe and Central Asia 1.9 -0.2 -1.5 -7.7 -11.1 -27.8 -16.8 -14.7 -9.3 3.6 3.4 -4.6 -2.5 -6.2 -10.8 -14.0 -13.8 -16.4 -18.4 -16.5 -21.3 -15.7 -20.9 -16.4 -14.7 -14.2 -15.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.1 2.4 -22.9 -18.2 -3.5 -9.0 2.4 6.4 0.6 1.1 -3.5 -7.4 -6.1 -7.8 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.0 -14.2 -11.0 -11.2 Middle East and N. Africa 5.6 -11.1 -7.5 -1.6 26.2 -11.5 -59.9 - - -8.8 -18.1 -1.7 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.4 -15.5 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.7 11.5 -0.6 -3.5 -44.8 7.1 -14.1 8.9 -0.3 1.3 0.1 -6.3 9.1 -0.7 -7.5 -12.4 -17.2 -12.8 -16.7 -10.1 -10.4 -15.8 -22.4 -14.6 -22.5 Sub-Saharan Africa -2.5 -1.1 -5.5 -12.6 -0.6 -19.0 -53.8 12.5 -22.2 -2.8 -1.6 -10.0 -1.9 -7.6 -7.5 -8.8 -25.4 -28.7 -18.9 -23.4 -15.35 -19.7 -22.9 -21.2 -28.7 - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.6 1.2 -1.5 -0.6 -14.2 -30.3 -2.8 -4.8 5.1 3.1 0.9 3.8 -2.1 -4.1 -3.1 -13.3 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.3 -9.0 -13.2 -12.7 -15.4 - - High Income Countries -1.1 0.5 1.8 0.3 -4.2 -16.7 -27.9 -2.8 -4.2 6.1 5.4 0.7 2.4 -3.3 -5.3 -3.7 -13.1 -13.0 -12.4 -15.0 -15.3 -10.3 -14.7 -12.2 -13.7 - - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 0.0 -5.6 8.2 -8.4 -35.4 -2.9 -6.3 3.0 -2.1 1.3 7.3 0.8 -1.4 -1.9 -13.6 -12.7 -9.0 -12.4 -15.2 -6.0 -9.5 -13.8 -19.4 -16.8 - East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -12.6 9.9 -10.0 -39.1 0.9 -2.9 2.9 -3.1 -0.4 6.6 2.4 -5.3 -3.7 -17.2 -17.0 -9.6 -14.0 -15.8 -5.2 -9.0 -14.2 -19.6 -18.3 - Europe and Central Asia 0.8 2.6 -6.2 -7.6 -8.1 -7.1 -29.4 -19.5 -16.9 -1.9 -11.2 -4.8 -5.6 -7.9 -9.4 -9.8 -15.4 -12.8 -12.5 -17.4 -18.0 -14.1 -15.1 -17.9 -22.7 - - Latin America and Caribbean 4.0 3.8 1.7 1.7 5.0 -5.3 -19.4 -16.6 -5.7 4.9 0.7 1.6 8.7 -2.7 2.7 5.4 -7.4 -6.9 -0.4 -10.4 -14.5 -3.8 -9.8 -12.6 -13.5 -13.6 - Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.4 -6.5 11.8 -18.0 -23.0 - - -2.0 0.5 10.3 5.0 -1.5 -4.3 -2.7 -11.2 -7.0 -11.3 -7.5 - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.8 1.1 9.0 30.3 -10.2 -54.7 23.9 0.5 8.6 2.5 5.1 23.5 6.7 21.1 -1.4 -12.3 -13.3 -12.8 -7.5 -12.0 -10.3 -9.9 -11.4 -24.5 -20.0 - Sub-Saharan Africa 4.2 5.9 5.3 19.0 -4.5 10.5 -29.8 - - 5.5 3.8 6.9 9.2 4.9 3.6 8.6 -1.8 2.1 -9.6 -9.8 - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.7 - - Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 0.0 -4.0 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 - East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -4.9 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 - Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 -0.5 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.9 - - Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 -3.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.7 - Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.3 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -5.9 1.5 - -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.1 - - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 -1.1 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 1.2 - Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 289 | January 15, 2016 Financial Markets 1 2014 2015 2014 2015 MRV 2013 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.36 ECB repo 0.55 0.16 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.27 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.37 0.54 0.62 EURIBOR 3-months 0.15 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 2.53 2.49 2.27 1.97 2.15 2.20 2.53 2.41 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.26 2.23 2.12 German Bund, 10 yr 1.63 1.24 1.07 0.77 0.35 0.53 0.70 1.19 1.01 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.51 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 319 330 301 367 425 380 423 282 310 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 413 413 442 Asia 219 206 195 202 219 201 233 195 202 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 203 212 212 250 246 235 235 249 Europe 267 287 262 319 399 336 345 244 274 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 330 328 328 347 332 294 294 304 Latin America & Caribbean 379 407 366 471 537 487 560 336 373 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 504 527 527 585 582 553 553 599 Middle East 435 388 369 398 449 420 447 372 379 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 420 420 479 502 503 503 505 Africa 322 323 280 319 373 355 425 278 292 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 358 374 374 472 490 482 482 558 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 409 417 417 417 425 424 382 423 432 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 407 399 374 High-Income ($ Index) 1661 1710 1698 1710 1741 1736 1582 1714 1749 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1694 1663 1562 United States (S&P-500) 1848 2059 1972 2059 2068 2063 1920 1931 2003 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2080 2044 1939 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1339 1401 1411 1401 1624 1552 1405 1380 1404 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1558 1474 1382 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16291 16292 16174 17674 19207 20236 17388 15621 15425 16174 16414 17460 17451 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19921 0 17543 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1003 956 1005 956 975 972 792 1066 1088 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 814 794 723 EM Asia 446 457 460 457 481 475 391 485 489 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 408 404 368 EM Europe 438 297 374 297 302 311 259 403 399 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 263 244 227 EM Europe & Middle East 372 257 321 257 258 266 226 340 337 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 222 211 195 EM Latin America & Caribbean 3201 2728 3171 2728 2451 2517 1895 3399 3664 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 1919 1830 1660 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.80 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 Japan 97.61 105.89 104.04 114.62 119.16 121.38 122.06 101.75 102.98 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 122.61 121.6 117.26 Developing Brazil 2.16 2.35 2.28 2.55 2.87 3.07 3.55 2.22 2.27 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.87 4.03 China 6.15 6.16 6.16 6.15 6.24 6.20 6.31 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.37 6.45 6.60 Egypt 6.87 7.08 7.15 7.15 7.49 7.61 7.82 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.83 7.83 India 58.55 61.03 60.59 61.96 62.24 63.43 64.97 60.06 60.83 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 66.15 66.54 66.64 Russia 31.86 38.58 36.31 47.98 62.87 52.69 63.62 34.75 36.17 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 65.01 70.19 74.75 South Africa 9.65 10.85 10.77 11.22 11.74 12.08 13.03 10.66 10.66 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 15.04 16.30 Memo: USA nominal effective rate104.85 110.58 110.75 114.29 120.07 121.87 125.85 109.59 110.79 111.87 112.87 114.06 115.94 118.13 119.99 122.10 121.76 121.40 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.52 126.92 128.15 0.00 131.55 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2014 2015 2015 MRV 2013 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 104 96 100 75 52 60 48 105 100 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 43 37 31 Non - Oil Index 2 79 75 74 71 66 64 60 76 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 63 59 58 58 56 56 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 94 87 89 83 74 73 65 90 90 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 72 67 64 65 63 59 57 56 Baltic Dry Index 4 1215 1103 954 1105 614 629 975 796 944 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 582 510 429 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 289 | January 15, 2016