Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Report for Road Project in Afghanistan: Afghanistan Rural Access Project Additional Financing1 1 This is the output report from applying the World Bank Group's Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Project Level Tool (Global website: climatescreeningtools.worldbank.org; World Bank users: wbclimatescreeningtools.worldbank.org). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed from applying this tool are those of the individual that applied the tool and should be in no way attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated institutions, to the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the information included in the screening and this associated output report and accepts no liability for any consequence of its use. 1/12 1. Introduction Building resilience to climate and geophysical hazards is a vital step in the fight against poverty and for sustainable development. Screening for risks from these hazards improves the likelihood and longevity of a project's success. The project level Climate and Disaster Risks Screening Tool provides early stage due diligence on climate and disaster risks at the concept stage of project development. The tool uses an exposure - sensitivity - adaptive capacity framework to consider and characterize risks from climate and geophysical hazards, based on key components of a project and its broader development context (Annex 1). This report summarizes the results of the screening process for Afghanistan Rural Access Project Additional Financing/Afghanistan. The potential risks flagged in this report were identified through four screening stages by connecting information on climate and geophysical hazards exposure with the user's subject matter expertise and understanding of the project components and sensitivity to rate the impacts. The tool does not provide detailed risk assessments, rather it flags risks to inform consultations, enhance dialogue with local and other experts, and define further analytical work at the project location. This early stage due diligence can be used to strengthen the consideration of climate and disaster considerations in key components of the project design, including the physical (e.g., road rehabilitation, new road construction) and non-physical aspects (e.g., capacity building of road agencies, institutional strengthening or policies; maintenance schedules, etc.). The broader sectoral (e.g., road design standards, zoning regulations; rural urban road policies; demand for new roads network) and development context conditions (e.g., population growth, access to technology, etc.) could help modulate the risks to the delivery of the outcome/service level. The results of the screening are presented below, with supporting narrative to guide their interpretation. 2/12 2. Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Results Summary 2.1 Project Information Summary Table 1 below provides key project information including the location and key project development objectives. This information is provided by the task team. The activities within the components are important as their sensitivity to the climate and geophysical hazards will determine the level of potential impact from these hazards. Table 1: Project Information Project Information Title Afghanistan Rural Access Project Additional Financing Number P149597 Region South Asia Country Afghanistan Type of Assessment Road Projects Purpose of Screening Screen a Project at the Concept Stage Current Project Phase Concept (Identification) Funding Source other,IDA Road Maintenance, Local Government/Community Roads, Feeder, Secondary Keywords and Rural Roads, Road Transport, Rural Transport Brief Description of Project The project development objective is to enable rural communities to benefit or Goals/ Objectives from all-season road access to basic services and facilities. Location The project covers almost all provinces of the country. This is optional information which may be useful when searching for GPS Coordinates geospatial climate and hazard information from data sources. It is not directly used in the screening process. Physical Components Assets include secondary, and tertiary roads, bridges, and culverts. The project's desired outcome is to enable rural communities to benefit from Outcome / Service Delivery all-season road access to basic services and facilities. 3/12 * Please note that this is based on user inputs and the coverage may not be comprehensive. 2.2 Summary of Exposure to Climate and Geophysical Hazards Table 2 presents a summary description of exposure to climate and geophysical hazards at the project location for the Historical/Current and Future time frames1. Exposure to climate hazards is evaluated in two time frames, because past records are not necessarily indicative of future conditions. The descriptions provide a summary of the key characteristics and some indication of the trends in exposure from each hazard, drawing on global, quality controlled data sets from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). It is useful, for example to understand the temperature range and the rate of annual or decadal increase in a region; or precipitation patterns for historical and future time frames and seasonality shifts. Understanding the trends of hazards is important as they act individually and collectively on components/sub-sectors of the project. Because geophysical hazards (such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcano eruptions) do not have associated future projections, exposure for those hazards is assessed only in the Historical/Current timeframe. Table 2: Summary of Exposure to Climate and Geophysical Hazards at Project Location HAZARD TIME FRAME DESCRIPTION OF HAZARDS FOR YOUR LOCATION Extreme temperatures have not brought significant impacts to the project roads given Current Extreme that paved roads are still a limited proportion of network. Temperature It is not expected the extreme temperature could bring impacts to secondary/tertiary Future road networks given the limited amount of paved roads to be built in the project. Current Project roads in north part of the country have been found exposed to floods. Extreme Precipitation and Flooding The trends in the frequency and intensity of heavy downpours and floods is found to be Future increasing. Current N/A Sea Level Rise Future N/A There are about less than 30 percent of bridges and culverts that experienced water Current Storm Surge level surge in the past few years. Future Storm surge height is expected to increase, but estimates are highly uncertain. Current Project locations are not exposed to strong winds. Strong Winds Future Project locations are not exposed to strong winds. Earthquake Current Afghanistan is prone to earthquakes. Afghanistan is highly prone to landslides, particularly in the northern part of the Landslide Current country. 1 The Future time frame is based on changes projected to occur between the 1980-1999 average and a future average. This future average is the 2040-2059 average (i.e., the default in the Climate Change Knowledge Portal - CCKP). Users can choose to select another time frame, or choose to use national/local data sets, but if so, this should be reflected in the notes section of the tool (and will be summarized in Annex 2). The CCKP draws on global, quality-controlled datasets and is continually updated as new data become available. In some cases, the CCKP is supplemented with other sources of information. For more detail on the data used in this step, please refer to the Data Annex. Climate Change Knowledge Portal (http://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org). Not Exposed Slightly Exposed Moderately Exposed Highly Exposed Insufficient No Potential Impact Low Potential Impact Moderate Potential Impact High Potential Impact Understanding No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk Please note that the colors shown in Table 2 are only for exposure at the project's location. Overall risk to project's outcome/service delivery, taking into account sensitivity of physical investments and adaptive capacity(non-physical components and development context), is depicted in Tables 3A and 3B. 4/12 2.3 Summary of Overall Project Risk Tables 3A and 3B present the same results, with Table 3A highlighting the impact ratings on the project’s components, and the overall risk to the outcome/service level for both Historical/Current and Future time frames. Table 3B draws attention to how the climate impacts and risks shift from the Historical/Current to the Future time frame. The impact ratings are derived on the basis of the hazard information, subject matter expertise, contextual understanding of the project, and modulated on the basis of adaptive capacity and the larger development context of the road sector and country. The results indicate if the outcome/service level of the project is at risk. The actual ratings themselves, while instructive, should inform further consultations, dialogue, and future planning processes. Keep in mind that the greatest value of the tool is that it provides a structured and systematic process for understanding the climate and disaster risks on the project. The results indicate where risks may exist and where further work may be required to reduce or manage these climate and geophysical risks. An ongoing process of monitoring risks, refining climate and other information, and regular impact assessment may also be appropriate. 2.3.1 Results Summary - by Component / Subsector Table 3A summarizes the impact to the physical components from each hazard at the project location. For example, high temperatures may lead to pavement cracking, so the temperature rating of the pavement binder is an important indicator of sensitivity to temperature. On the other hand, sensitivity to heavy rainfall and flooding depends on the capacity of road drainage, including culverts, storm drains, and ditches, as well as road surface concerns. By understanding the interaction of the physical works with each hazard, the impact ratings are derived. The potential impact on the physical components due to exposure from hazards is modulated by the project's non-physical components (enabling and capacity building activities). The right kind of capacity building measures could increase preparedness and longer-term resilience and reduce the risks. An understanding of larger sector and development context with respect to key modulating factors helps to assess the climate risks in terms of adaptive capacity. For example, in the road sector, a significant system redundancy may help reduce risks; while population growth and increasing peak demand may aggravate the risks. The results provide an indication of potential risks and where further work may be required to understand the climate and geophysical risks. An ongoing process of monitoring risks, refining climate and other information, and regular impact assessment may also be appropriate. 5/12 Table 3A: Results Summary - by Component / Subsector Project Components Development Context Non-Physical Outcome/Service HAZARD Physical Broader Context Location Components Transport Sector Delivery Components (Overall) (Overall) Time Frame Current Future Current Future Current Future Current Future Current Future Current Future Political Extreme Capacity Temperature instability Building, Significantly Training and Increases Extreme Outreach Impact Precipitation Significantly and Flooding Reduces Impact Access to technology Sea Level Significantly Data gathering Reduces Rise Slightly and information Reduces Impact management Impact Storm Surge system Conflict Significantly Strong Reduces Slightly Winds Impact Increases Impact Earthquake Overall Overall Significantly Reduces Significantly Impact Increases Impact Landslide 6/12 2.3.2 Summary – by Time Frame The results in Table 3B display the results by time frame. Potential impacts to the components are evaluated separately for the Historical/Current and Future time frames to capture changes in the exposure from climate hazards over time. It is important to first evaluate historical trends and current baselines to understand the conditions and trends under which road systems are currently operating. Using the projections for future climate in the project location and relating them to the relevant time scale, users can focus on the aspect of their project that will be relevant to its outcome in the Future time-frame. For example, recent trends may indicate that frequency and intensity of extreme floods are rising in such a way that they require a new set of design standards for roads, which may reduce significantly the operations and maintenance costs over time. For investments with long operational lifetimes, such as physical infrastructure, considering future climate variability and change is critical to avoid “locking in” designs and features that are only suited to current climate. Most road investments have long lifetimes, so considering future conditions is critical to avoid “locking in” designs that are not suited for higher sea levels or more frequent flooding. Coastal roads whose design is based on current sea levels, for example, may experience periodic or permanent inundation in several decades because the elevation is insufficient. Table 3B: Results Summary - by Time Frame Time Frame Current Future Development Context Outcome Development Context Outcome Physical Non-Physical Broader / Physical Non-Physical Broader / Hazard Location Transport Location Transport Components Components Context Service Components Components Context Service Sector Delivery Sector Delivery (Overall) (Overall) Capacity Capacity Extreme Political Political Temperature Building, Building, instability instability Training and Training and Significantly Significantly Outreach Increases Outreach Increases Extreme Significantly Impact Significantly Impact Precipitation Reduces Reduces and Flooding Impact Impact Access to Access to technology technology Data Data Sea Level Significantly Significantly Rise gathering Reduces gathering Reduces Slightly Slightly and Reduces Impact and Reduces Impact information Impact information Impact Storm Surge management management Conflict Conflict system system Strong Slightly Slightly Significantly Increases Significantly Increases Winds Reduces Reduces Impact Impact Impact Impact Earthquake Overall overall Overall Overall Significantly Significantly Significantly Increases Significantly Increases Reduces Impact Reduces Impact Impact Impact Landslide Not Exposed Slightly Exposed Moderately Exposed Highly Exposed Insufficient No Potential Impact Low Potential Impact Moderate Potential Impact High Potential Impact Understanding No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk 7/12 2.4 Key Drivers of Risks Based on the results above, Table 4 highlights the key drivers of risk for each project component/subsector ratings, in terms of hazards that are likely to pose the greatest challenge. The rating for the potential impact and service for each component is considered for each hazard, drawing on the exposure information and the user's subject matter expertise. For example, while the outcome/service for a project may require roads to be accessible across the rainy or dry seasons for all communities, this may be compromised due to the risk posed from multiple hazards. Specific consideration should be given to those hazards which have high ratings, or are moving from moderate to high ratings over time. For example, sea-level rise may not be a key risk driver in the Historical/Current time frame; but may emerge as a key driver for the road sector in the future time frame. Understanding which hazards are key drivers may help flag follow-on work to manage climate risks within the design and delivery of the project. Table 4: Key Drivers of Risk Historical/Current Drivers Future Drivers Earthquake Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Landslide Hazards and Location Storm Surge Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Storm Surge Storm Surge Physical Components Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Earthquake Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Outcome / Service Delivery Landslide Moderate Key: High Risk Risk * If a cell is blank it implies there is 'No high or moderate risks' identified for this aspect of the project. q Overall, the Non-physical Components : Significantly Reduces Impact q The Transport Sector : Slightly Reduces Impact q The Broader Development Context : Significantly Increases Impact 8/12 3. Next Steps By understanding which of your road project components is most at risk from climate change and other natural hazards on the basis of the screening, you can begin to take measures to avoid their impacts by: q Enhancing the consideration of climate and disaster risks early in the design stage of the project. q Using your risk screening analysis to inform follow-up feasibility studies and technical assessments. q Encouraging local stakeholder consultations and dialogue to enhance resilience measures and overall success of the project. Table 5A provides some general guidance based on the risk ratings for the Outcome/Service Delivery, and Table 5B lists some climate risk management measures for your consideration. Visit the "Next steps" page of the tool on the website for guidance and a list of useful resources. Note: Please recall that that this is a high-level due diligence tool, and the characterization of risks should be complemented with more detailed work. Table 5A: General Guidance Based on Risk Ratings for Outcome/Service Delivery Insufficient Gather more information to improve your understanding of climate and geophysical Understanding hazards and their relationship to your project. If you are confident that climate and geophysical hazards pose no risk to the project, continue with project development. However, keep in mind that this is a high-level risk No Risk screening at an early stage of project development. Therefore, you are encouraged to monitor the level of climate and geophysical risks to the project as it is developed and implemented. If you are confident that climate and geophysical hazards pose low risk to the project, continue with project development. However, keep in mind that this is a high-level risk screening at an early stage of project development. Therefore, you are encouraged to Low Risk monitor the level of climate and geophysical risks to the project as it is developed and implemented. You may also consider gathering additional information to increase your level of confidence in your rating. For areas of Moderate Risk, you are encouraged to build on this screening through additional studies, consultation, and dialogue. This initial screening may be Moderate Risk supplemented with a more detailed risk assessment to better understand the nature of the risk to the project. For areas of High Risk, you are strongly encouraged to conduct a more detailed risk High Risk assessment and to explore measures to manage or reduce those risks. Table 5B: Types of Climate Risk Management Measures for typical Road Projects 9/12 CATEGORY PROS CONS EXAMPLES Accommodate and • Flexible • Temporary solution • Increasing repair and Manage • Typically low-cost • Can be insufficient in maintenance budgets • Useful when risk is preventing losses • Instituting policies for proactive low, but projected to rerouting during severe weather rise in the future Protect and Harden • Can be used for • High cost • Elevating a roadway existing and new assets • Inflexible • Expanding buffer zones • Responds to • Effectiveness may • Designing roads with larger immediate risks decrease over time drainage systems • Engineering bridges with elements of seismic-resistant design Retreat and Relocate • Long-term solution • High cost • Moving a road alignment away • Responds to • Inflexible from a river immediate risk • Moving infrastructure further inland or onto higher ground 10/12 Annex 1: Tool Approach Tool Approach The framework below describes the approach taken to screen the project. Climate and natural hazards information used to screen the project is most likely obtained from the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal, which houses numerous global data sets with historical records and future projections as well as country-specific adaptation profiles. Figure A1: Project Level Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool: Approach for Roads Project 11/12 12/12