Document of The World Bank Report No: ICR00002463 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (IDA-4276-KE) ON A CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR8.4 MILLION (US$12.9 MILLION EQUIVALENT) TO THE REPUBLIC OF KENYA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM PROJECT May 23, 2013 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management 2 Country Department AFCE2 Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange Rate Effective February 12, 2013 Currency Unit = Kenya Shillings Kenya Shillings 85.90 = US$1 US$1 = SDR0.65 FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CAS Country Assistance Strategy CBK Central Bank of Kenya CBS Central Bureau of Statistics CFAA Country Financial Accountability Assessment CIFA Country Integrated Fiduciary Assessment CIP Census of Industrial Production CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment CPAR Country Procurement Assessment Report CPI Consumer Price Index CPO Chief Procurement Officer CPPR Country Portfolio Performance Review CRD Civil Registration Department DANIDA Danish International Development Agency DFID Department for International Development DG Director General (of KNBS) DIRs Detailed Implementation Reviews DSO District Statistical Office EC European Commission EMIS Education Management Information System. ERS Economic Recovery Strategy ESW Economic Sector Work FMR Financial Monitoring Reports FMS Financial Management Specialist GAP Governance Action Plan GDDS General Data Dissemination System GDP Gross Domestic Product GFS Government Finance Statistics GIS Geographical Information System GJLOS Governance, Justice, Law and Order Sector GOK Government of Kenya GPN General Procurement Notices HMIS Health Management Information System HRD Human Resource Development IAG Internal Auditor General IAS International Accounting Standards ICB International Competitive Bidding ICRR Implementation Completion and Results Report ICT Information and Communication Technology IDA International Development Association IFMIS Integrated Financial Management Information System ILO International Labor Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IMIS Integrated Multi-sector Information System IP-ERS Investment Program for the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation IPSAS International Public Sector Accounting Standards IRCB Institutional Reform and Capacity Building ISIC International Standard Industrial Classification ISR Implementation Supervision Report KACC Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission KDHS Kenya Demographic and Health Survey KEMSA Kenya Medical Supplies Agency KEPI Kenya Expanded Program on Children Immunization KIHBS Integrated Household and Business Survey KIM Kenya Institute of Management KNAO Kenya National Audit Office KNBS Kenya National Bureau of Statistics KRA Kenya Revenue Authority LSC Least Cost Selection M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDAs Ministries, Departments, and Agencies MDGs Millennium Development Goals MGC&SD Ministry of Social Development MED Monitoring and Evaluation Department MOA Ministry of Agriculture MOF Ministry of Finance MOH Ministry of Health MOL Ministry of Labour MPND Ministry of Planning and National Development MTEF Medium Term Economic Framework MTR Mid-term Review NARC National Rainbow Coalition NASSEP National Sample Survey and Evaluation Program NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations NRB National Registration Board NSC National Steering Committee NSS National Statistical System PAD Project Appraisal Document PRGF Poverty Reduction Growth Facility PPA Project Performance Agreement PFM Public Finance Management PIU Project Implementation Unit PM Procurement Manager PPF Project Preparation Facility PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSR Project Status Report QCBS Quality and Cost Based Selection RFP Request for Proposals ROSC Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes RVP Regional Vice President SACCO Savings and Credit Cooperative Societies SAM Social Accounting Matrix SIMP Strategic Implementation Master Plan SNA System of National Accounts STATCAP Statistical Capacity Building Program SWAp Sector Wide Approach TSU Transition Support Unit UNDAF United Nations Development Assistance Framework UNDB United Nations Development Business UNDP United Nations Development Program UNESCO United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development WHO World Health Organization REPUBLIC OF KENYA DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL STATISTICAL SYSTEM PROJECT Contents A. Basic Information i B. Key Dates i C. Ratings Summary i D. Sector and Theme Codes ii E. Bank Staff ii F. Results Framework Analysis iii G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs ix H. Restructuring (if any) ix I. Disbursement Graph ix 1. Project Context, Development Objectives, and Design 1 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes 5 3. Assessment of Outcomes 11 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome 20 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance 20 6. Lessons Learned 25 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners 27 Annex 1: Project Costs and Financing 37 Annex 2: Outputs by Component 38 Annex 3: Economic and Financial Analysis 42 Annex 4: Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes 43 Annex 5: Bank STATCAP Program Eligibility Criteria 44 Annex 6: Detailed Overview of Support to Ministries, Departments, and Agencies 45 Annex 7: List of Supporting Documents 47 Vice President: Makhtar Diop Country Director: Diarietou Gaye Sector Manager: Pablo Fajnzylber Task Team Leader: Gabriel Demombynes Co-Task Team Leader Philip Brynnum Jespersen A. Basic Information Development of the National Statistical Country: Kenya Project Name: System Project (STATCAP) Project ID: P085414 L/C/TF Number(s): 4276-KE ICR Date: May 23, 2013 ICR Type: Core ICR REPUBLIC OF Lending Instrument: APL Borrower: KENYA Original Total SDR14.1M Disbursed Amount: SDR 8.22 Commitment: Revised Amount: SDR 8.41 SDR 8.22 Environmental Category: C Implementing Agencies: Ministry of Planning and National Development (MPND) and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Co-financiers and Other External Partners: Department for International Development (£6.5m) B. Key Dates Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 11/12/2003 Effectiveness: 11/1/2004 08/20/2007 Dec 29, 2010 Appraisal: 5/19/04 to 5/28/04 Restructuring(s): June 22, 2012 September 27, 2012 Approval: 03/27/2007 Mid-term Review: June 2008 November 2009 December 31, Closing: September 30, 2012 2010 C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes: Moderately Unsatisfactory Risk to Development Outcome: Substantial Bank Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Borrower Performance: Moderately Unsatisfactory C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry: Moderately Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory Implementing Moderately Quality of Supervision: Moderately Satisfactory Agency/Agencies: Unsatisfactory i Overall Bank Overall Borrower Moderately Moderately Satisfactory Performance: Performance: Unsatisfactory C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Implementation QAG Assessments Indicators Rating Performance (if any) Potential Problem Project Quality at Entry Yes None at any time (Yes/No): (QEA): Problem Project at any Quality of Yes None time (Yes/No): Supervision (QSA): DO rating before Moderately Not Applicable Closing/Inactive status: Satisfactory D. Sector and Theme Codes Original Actual Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing) Central government administration 91 91 Sub-national government administration 6 6 Tertiary education 3 3 Original Actual Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing) Administrative and civil service reform 17 17 Economic statistics, modeling and forecasting 33 33 Managing for development results 33 33 Poverty strategy, analysis and monitoring 17 17 E. Bank Staff Positions At ICR At Approval Vice President: Makhtar Diop Hartwig Schafer (Acting) Country Director: Johannes C.M. Zutt Colin Bruce Sector Manager: Pablo Fajnzylber Kathie L. Krumm Project Team Leader: Gabriel Demombynes Lucas Ojiambo ICR Team Leader: Gabriel Demombynes ICR Co-Team Leader Philip Brynnum Jespersen ICR Primary Author: Sulaiman S. Wasty ii F. Results Framework Analysis Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the project was to establish a sustainable national statistical system to provide reliable, timely, and accurate data in accordance with international standards through: (a) strengthening the capacity of the relevant statistical agencies through training and adoption of new information and communication technology; (b) carrying out legal and institutional reforms that promote statistical development; (c) establishing linkages among statistical data producers; (d) promoting statistical information sharing among data producers and users to strengthen the quality of decision making; and (e) developing a data access and dissemination strategy in conformity with relevant legislation and international good practice. PDO Indicator(s) (a) Outcomes Actual Value Original Target Achieved at Formally Values (from Completion or Indicator Baseline Value Revised Target approval Target Years Values documents) 2011-12 Outcome (1): The NSS meets the standards of the GDDS comprehensive framework with regard to periodicity and timeliness of reporting on: (i) the national accounts; (ii) central Government operations; (iii) the monetary and banking surveys; and (iv) balance of payments. 1-a) Lag time to Kenya has 10-14 months. Not applicable 9 months. produce full already adopted range of national the SNA 1993. Publishing of the accounts SAM. aggregates and It took 24 months balancing items to produce a full in nominal and range of NA real terms aggregates and yielding GDP, as balancing items. defined in National accounts GDDS were not up to guidelines. date. CPI needed to be revised, consumption of SNA needed to be updated, and CIP needed to be undertaken. iii Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement Comments: Fully achieved. Update of the consumption module (based on KIHBS I) completed. Publishing of SAM take place once Input-Output tables are complete. Good progress toward improvement on national accounts statistics. 1-b) Lag time to 9 months. Kenya 6-9 months. Not applicable 9 months for the produce was in the annual; 3 months comprehensive process of Consult with the for the quarterly data on adopting source to provide budget outturns. transactions of Government monthly data. central Financial Government and Statistics (GFS) debt, as defined 2001 Manual. in GDDS guidelines. Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement Comments: Achieved. Quarterly budget outturns are now produced, which was not previously the case. GFS 2001 adopted and statistics are produced annually. Ministry of Finance produces quarterly budget outturns. 1-c) Lag time to 1 month. 2-3 months. Not applicable 1 month. produce comprehensive (Was not well Publishing of data specified at the monthly monetary emphasizing the design phase, indicators. coverage of all should have been banking 3-4 months) institutions, as defined in GDDS guidelines. Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement Comments: Partially achieved. Indicator not well specified, but notable progress. CBK produces weekly bulletin. Most data is now produced with a lag of 1 months compared to 3-4 months when the project started. 1-d) Lag time to 12 months for 6-9 months. Not applicable 9 months and 3 produce annual BoP. months. comprehensive Improving the data on the main coverage and aggregates and measurement of balancing items all BoP accounts. of the balance of payments, as defined in GDDS guidelines. iv Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement Comments: Fully achieved. 3 months for the quarterly BoP, and 9 months for the full annual BoP (more comprehensively than the quarterly). Outcome (2): Reliable data disseminated timely to the users for the periodic national publications. 2-a) Lag time to 24 months. 12 months. Not applicable 9 months. report the CBS’ annual Economic The Statistical Release of the Survey and the Abstract had no Statistics Abstract annual Statistics table presenting with all of APR Abstract the 36 of the report—with all containing timely APR indicators. MTP indicators on data on the 36 time. Outcome Indicators specified in the 2004/5 Annual Progress Report. Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement) Comments: Fully achieved. Although the target was set too low, e.g. too many months. The M&E Directorate and KNBS should be able to avail the data and produce the Annual Progress Report more quickly than after nine months. The Annual Progress Report was produced by MED and launched in May 2012. The production time should be 3-4 months only. 2-b) Lag time to None. 12 months. Not applicable + 12 months. place the above targeted Statistical statistical products were products, timely placed on the on the CBS CBS website website with with great relevant variability and metadata and often long findings. delays. Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement Comments: Partially achieved. KenInfo is accessible online and indicators have been updated to 2011. 2012 indicators not yet uploaded, and newer survey indicators are not yet uploaded. v Outcome (3): Information is updated timely on the IDA 14 outcomes and MDG indicators. 3-a) Lag time Not applicable 3 months. Not applicable Not applicable. CBS provides indicator (as timely reports on individual IDA 14 sector countries were outcomes not expected to annually. produce annual reports on IDA 14 indicators). Date achieved Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable Not applicable (including % achievement) Comments: Not applicable. The IDA 14 indicators were never intended to be reported on a yearly basis at country level. 3-b) Lag time Not done. No 12 months. Not applicable 12 months. CBS website reports on the . reports provide progress in timely achieving the information on MDGs. progress in achieving the MDG indicators annually. Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement) Comments: Achieved. MDG report published. Annual administrative indicators contained in the Statistical Abstract, the APR, and KenInfo. Intermediate Outcomes Actual Value Original Target Achieved at Indicator Formally Values (from Completion or Baseline Value Revised Target approval Target Years Values documents) 2011-12 1. Adequate policy, legal, and regulatory framework as well as effective institutional framework are in place. The regulations The Statistical Formation of Not applicable KNBS formed. for Act was assented KNBS. ISO compliance operationalizing in 2006. Compliance with expected in 2012- the Statistical ISO. Board 13. Act 2006 are approval of Staff completed and Assessment and vi officially new KNBS approved. contracts issued to all approved staff. Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement) Comments: Partially achieved. Statistical Act in the process of updating to take into account new developments resulting from the implementation of the 2010 Constitution. The Regulations were never finalized or gazette. 2. Management and human resources are in place at the CBS and the other entities of the NSS. Percentage of PWC report on Staff transition Not applicable Staff transition identified organizational process process completed. positions filled structure. completed. as outlined in the Statistical Master Plan. Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement) Comments: Partially achieved. Employment letters issued to those found suitable for KNBS employment. Percentage of positions filled not available. 3. Statistical infrastructure developed and made operational. 3.1. Business Business register CPI updated with Not applicable Business register register is being updated. new weights. updated in 2007 revised and being Training to be Other tasks maintained conducted on satisfactorily and used. Government completed. statistics. 3.2. Household sampling CIP process Planning delays frame undertaken. meant NASSEP V maintained NASSEP was only and completed, laying completed after updated. the foundation for the second sample surveys restructuring in over the next September 2012. decade. Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement) Comments: Partially achieved. CPI revision completed and NASSEP V completed (with exception of unsafe regions in northern Kenya), but revision of national accounts was not completed by September 30, 2012. vii 4. Main statistics agencies have developed and upgraded and put into operation their core statistical programs and disseminated the results. 4.1. Key surveys DHS Field work Integrated services Not applicable KIHBS II not (e.g., Kenya done. survey and completed. integrated NASSEP. household NSS working Fieldwork of budget survey, groups NSS working NASSEP V in survey of established and groups to meet second of three industrial work plans regularly. phases. production, drafted. agriculture) and Work plans are Work plans are key implemented with results’ focused administrative clear results and with clear outputs data from the deliveries. in terms of data ministries of production. health and education are Public-use of produced and microdata demonstrated household survey according to an files are not agreed schedule. generally available to the public or 4.2. Suitably- well advertised, anonym zed e.g. the KIHBS I. public-use micro data household Public access to survey files data collected by produced and KNBS has disseminated improved with the within 12 introduction of the months of Kenya Open Data completing website. household survey data collection activities. Date achieved March 20, 2007 March 20, 2007 Not applicable September 30, (including % 2012 achievement) Comments: Fully achieved. SWGs are meeting. NASSEP V was completed, albeit outside the project timescale. Work plans are results’ focused with clear outputs in terms of data production. Public-use microdata household survey files are not generally available to the public, e.g. the KIHBS I. Public access to data collected by KNBS has improved with the introduction of the Kenya Open Data website. viii G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs Actual Date ISR No. DO IP Disbursements Archived Moderately Moderately 11 Oct 9, 2012 USD 8.22 millions Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory H. Restructuring (if any) ISR Ratings at Amount Reason for Restructuring & Board Restructuring Restructuring Disbursed at Key Changes Made Approved Date(s) Restructuring PDO Change in USD Project implementation delays, DO IP millions and cancelation of undisbursed amount. Extension of closing date from Dec 31, 2010 to June 30, 2012, Dec 17, 2010. No change in S S 4.92 reallocation between spending the PDO categories, and adoption of 100% World Bank financing. Extension of the closing date from June 30, 2012 to Jun 29, 2012. No change in S S 11.31 September 30, 2012 and the PDO reallocation between spending categories Cancellation of outstanding Sep 27 2012 No change in balance, approximately MS MU 11.98 the PDO USD8.8m and reallocation between spending categories. I. Disbursement Graph ix 1. Project Context, Development Objectives, and Design 1.1 Context at Appraisal 1. Kenya was at a crucial moment when the project was prepared. In December 2002, after experiencing two decades of poor economic performance, Kenyans elected a government that campaigned for fundamental reform of governance. Despite slower progress than targeted in its national development plans during the period 2003-2012, the Government has pursued policies that have stimulated private sector investment, promoted growth, and improved the wellbeing of citizens. By the end of 2006 the economy had experienced three consecutive years of growth in excess of 5 percent. The government had also made attempts to strengthen governance systems and had enacted several pieces of anti-corruption legislation. It had improved public sector management, including its public procurement and financial management practices, so that funds are now being used more effectively to provide services to citizens. Moreover, relationships with development partners have improved substantially. 2. In 2003 the Government prepared the Investment Program for the Economic Recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation (IP-ERS) that recognized and emphasized the importance of evidence-based policy-making. The monitoring and evaluation of IP-ERS implementation required production timely, comprehensive, reliable and accessible statistical information 3. Government had demonstrated its commitment to improving statistics. The Government had prepared Strategic Plan and a draft Statistics Bill was formally approved by the cabinet in December 2003. The Statistics Bill was later passed by Parliament and enacted by the President in 2006. The Act was operationalized in July 2007. Following cabinet approval of the Strategic Plan, the Government prepared the Strategic Implementation Master Plan (SIMP) for period 2003-2008. SIMP, prepared with assistance of the World Bank and other development partners, presented a result-based program of priority Government activities designed to meet the overall development of country’s National Statistics System (NSS). Its main objectives were in line with the overarching context was provided by the IP-ERS, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), and internationally-accepted quality standards, such as the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). 4. The project was part of the Bank’s Multi-country Statistical Capacity Building Program (STATCAP) horizontal Adaptable Program Loan (APL) approved by the Executive Board in 2004. Under STATCAP program, individual countries obtain separate loans and/or credits to finance their national statistical capacity building projects, which will be appraised and prepared following normal provisions for investment lending. The full eligibility criteria for entry to the STATCAP program are presented in Annex 5. 1 1.2 Original Project Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators (as approved) 5. The objective of this Statistical Capacity Building (STATCAP) project was to establish a sustainable NSS to provide reliable, timely, and accurate data in accordance with international standards through: a) Strengthening the capacity of the relevant statistical agencies through training and adoption of new information and communication technology (ICT) ; b) Carrying out legal and institutional reforms that promote statistical development; c) Establishing linkages among statistical data producers; d) Promoting statistical information sharing among data users to strengthen the quality of decision making; and e) Developing a data access and dissemination strategy in conformity with relevant legislation and international good practice. 6. The project’s principal outcome was to build the Government’s capacity to produce improved statistics to be used to track progress of the key performance indicators and targets identified in the IP-ERS log frame matrix, and provide feedback to policy-makers for improving public policy and use of public resources. The indicators to measure the outcomes consisted of two sets as specified in Annex 6 of the Project Appraisal Document (PAD), Schedule 5 of the Development Credit Agreement (DCA), and itemized in Section F above of this ICR. 1.3 Revised PDO and Key Indicators There were no changes to the PDO. 1.4 Main Beneficiaries 7. KNBS was the first beneficiary and main stakeholder of this project, being the main producer of statistics in Kenya and the coordinator of the NSS. The next principal beneficiaries of the program were fourteen statistics units within MDAs. These units were mainly supported with statistical training and physical infrastructure, which resulted in some MDAs producing statistics for the first time. In total, more than one thousand people were trained in statistics, data collection and computer programs across the NSS. The project increased their ability to track progress toward meeting the IP-ERS goals and the MDGs; strengthened the country’s economic; monitored progress in the programmatic budgeting approach of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF); and reduced budgeting and planning costs, thus enhancing the likelihood meeting the national development goals. 8. KNBS further benefitted through institutional and organizational support, training, data development, and physical infrastructure and equipment, including development of new sampling frames for household and establishment-based surveys and censuses and the purchase of vehicles and ICT equipment. District statistics offices received training and 2 equipment to improve their capacity. The support was aimed at stimulating sector MDAs to take ownership initiatives in policy identification, program/projects evaluation, and outcome measurement. 9. Policy makers and planners: The next set of beneficiary was policy- and decision- makers in the public and private sectors by having access to higher quality data to inform their policy decisions and monitor progress. KNBS provides a large share of the statistics in the Government’s Annual Progress Report, which is intended to inform policy-making, planning and budgeting. 10. Overall statistical coordination benefitted through the establishment of sector working groups to strengthen the national statistics system and the promulgation of the new Statistics Act 2006 that redefined and strengthened the role of KNBS. 11. Non state actors and the general public: This project also aimed to ensure that data from across government is readily accessible and available in a timely manner for use by different stakeholders, including academic institutions, Parliament, NGOs, and the general public. The media was also expected to play an important role by helping to sensitize the public about the activities of NSS, and also as a means to disseminate statistics to the general public. The general public also benefitted from the significant number of datasets released from KNBS and line ministries through the Kenya Open Data website. 12. Development Partners: Development Partners, including the Bank, not only helped to support the strengthening of the statistical system, but were also key users of the data for monitoring their own programs and projects, and for carrying out international reporting. 1.5 Original Components 13. The project had the following six components that were formulated to support the implementation of all the critical sector issues specified in section A.1 and A.2 of the PAD (“National Statistical System Issues, Status and Progress�) and the SIMP. Component A: Organizational Development and Governance (US$ 0.45 million1). This component was designed to support a comprehensive restructuring of the then Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) including modernization of its field activities to create a more compact regional structure with well-trained staff. It aimed at ensuring that institutional capacity supported the formulation and implementation of statistical policies and programs geared toward towards monitoring and evaluation of IP-ERS and other government development programs. It supported the development of an organizational culture that reflected modern principles of public sector management. The component also supported development of the new 1 The amounts indicate the original amounts allocated to each project component before the three project restructurings were undertaken. 3 statistics legislation which was promulgated in 2007, coordination of statistical activities between MDAs. Component B: Human Resource Development (US$ 3.3 million). This component supported training and education to strengthen statistical capacity, good governance, financial risk management and other professional skills. The staff of KNBS and MDAs was to be trained to use new statistical standards and methodologies, including collection and analysis of statistics on governance assessment surveys and to employ new managerial skills. Component C: Development of Statistical Infrastructure (US$ 1.5 million). This component provided the necessary infrastructure to strengthen data collection, processing, analysis and dissemination. It would also support the compilation and maintenance of: (i) a revised and updated central business register of establishments; (ii) a national master sampling frame for household based censuses and surveys; (iii) compendium of concepts, definitions, and methodologies for application in statistical analysis; and (iv) economic and social classifications. Component D: Data Development (US$ 6.0 million). This component financed the adaptation of internationally accepted standards and methodologies in data collection, compilation, and validation. It also supported development of sectoral statistics on issues such as demography, civil registration, health, education, poverty, national accounts, employment, public administration, judiciary, law and order, agriculture, tourism, and transportation. It further supported activities aimed at: (i) raising awareness of use of statistical data among data users; and (ii) developing a data access and dissemination policy in line international good practice. Component E: Physical Infrastructure and Equipment (US$ 5.1 million). This component provided computers and networking equipment, transport and survey equipment, and office furniture for KNBS and selected MDAs. The infrastructure and equipment was aimed at enhancing information access and make best use of information technology channels and storage systems. Component F: Project Management (US$ 3.93 million). This component supported effective management and implementation of the project. It financed TA, expertise, consultant services, operating costs, logistical support, and equipment needed to operate the project’s Transition Support Unit (TSU) housed within the KNBS. 1.6 Revised Components There were no changes to the project components. 4 1.7 Other significant changes 14. Three formal restructurings of the STATCAP project took place. Those were two extensions of the closing date, and a cancellation of the unspent credit balance. The PDOs, remained unchanged, including the PDO indicators. The full details of the three restructurings are given below: 15. Following the Government’s request in August 2010, the original project closing date of December 2010, was extended to June 30, 2012. This was the first restructuring which also included a reallocation of funds between spending categories and an amendment of the Credit Agreement to 100 percent financing of project cost categories. 16. A second restructuring was undertaken in June 2012 to extend the project closing date to September 30, 2012. This restructuring was to allow the Government to complete the fieldwork on NASSEP V and the installation of the Enterprise Resource Program (ERP). 17. By mutual agreement, a third restructuring was undertaken in September 2012 to allow the cancellation of the remaining undisbursed balance of US$8.8 million. 18. The project was closed on September 30, 2012, with a grace period of four months to settle all financial commitments and close the project books, e.g. until January 30, 2013. 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes 2.1 Project Preparation, Design, and Quality at Entry 19. A solid analytical base came from the diagnostics work underpinning the SIMP. Support to the development of the SIMP was provided through a Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCB) that also funded workshops to formulate statistical sector strategies. The project was generally well designed to address the key statistical issues in need of strengthening, including the actions proposed in the national strategic plan. 20. The design of the approved project was an adaptable program credit under the aegis of a multi-country STATCAP facility. All the credit eligibility requirements had been met and lessons of experience from other countries were reflected in the project design. These included the requirement of an integrated work plan and coordinated efforts for statistical capacity building in KNBS and across government ministries and agencies. In response to previous failures due to over-reliance on technical assistance, the project proposed an integration of staff of the Transitional Staff Unit (TSU) within KNBS to ensure greater sustainability. Consultation and coordination with other partners’ activities 2 began at project inception. Special attention was given to involve key stakeholders, such as MDAs, 2 Ongoing initiatives from IMF, EU, DFID, SIDA, GTZ, UNICEF, AFRISTAT, AFRITAC and Paris 21 were taken into account . 5 development partners, academic and research institutions, and other users of statistics data users in the design of the project. 21. Government’s ownership and commitment was assessed to be strong. Additionally, the GOK had demonstrated a strong commitment to strengthening the capacity of the CBS and other statistical units in government line ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs), especially with the preparation of the Strategic Plan, enactment and operationalization of the Statistics Act. 22. Financial management risks were considered Substantial but were expected to be reduced to Modest once proposed remedies for Governance and corruption were effectively implemented through: (a) external audits by the Kenya National Audit Office; (b) internal controls; and (c) effective fiduciary and complaint-handling arrangements. The adequacy of the procurement functions was handled through the creation of a Public Procurement Oversight Authority (established in 2007) as mandated by the Public Procurement and Disposal Act of 2005. Although, the Public Procurement and Oversight Authority has not yet carried out a procurement assessment for KNBS. 23. The results framework, although capturing the dimensions of data production time, did not sufficiently capture activities relating to data quality and dissemination. Some of the indicators should have been more precisely defined, both with respect to baselines and targets, and two of the PDO indicators on IDA 14 and the MDG indicators were incorrectly specified as annual dissemination does not apply to most of the higher level outcome indicators. The lack of focus on data dissemination, one of the project weaknesses, reflects the general emphasis in the Bank at the time on infrastructure development and data development. 2.2 Implementation 24. In summary, the project generally made very good progress on institutional reform, human capacity development, data and physical infrastructure development, but less progress on financial management, procurement, and information dissemination and micro- data access. CBS was transformed from being a department in Ministry of Planning and National Development (MoPND) to KNBS, a semi-autonomous agency with its own Board, Directors, and staff. More than one thousand staff were trained across the national statistical system. Across fourteen line ministries data production was increased, in some cases data was produced for the first time. A comprehensive overview of support to MDAs is presented in Annex 6. The project supported thirteen of the fifteen surveys undertaken by KNBS during the period 2005-2012, including important economic surveys (that almost certainly would not have been undertaken without the project) to improve the national accounts. However, most of the produced data is not yet publicly available on KNBS’ website or on the websites of the supported MDAs, and financial management and procurement weaknesses identified in the preparation phase were never satisfactorily overcome. 6 25. At the beginning of the project implementation, procurement, and financial management functions were being undertaken by MoPND and neither CBS nor MPND had ever implemented a World Bank project before. Thus time was needed for the TSU to become fully operational and familiar with Bank’s procurement, financial management, planning and M&E procedures. Oversight and coordination mechanisms for the NSS Strategic Plan were ensured through the National Steering Committee (NSC). 26. Project implementation process commenced in April 2004 soon after the Bank’s approval of the US$2 million Project Preparation Facility (PPF). It was anticipated that the Bank then would approve the project in July 2005. However, the submission of the project package to the Board was delayed for two years because the Bank management raised issues with the overall public sector management in Kenya that were beyond the control of the project. Thus the project did not get approved by the Bank until March 2007, and only became effective in May 2007. Due to the above-mentioned delays in the Bank’s approval of the credit, most of the project’s priority activities were initially funded by the PPF and a DFID grant. 27. Project’s implementation was further delayed due to factors related to the political violence in the aftermath of the December 2007 elections. These resulted in a year-long cease in all external funding (including from the Bank). 28. Performance in procurement and financial management was weak throughout project implementation despite the TSU employing a qualified procurement manager and a financial management expert. Procurement remained a problematic issue during most of the implementation period due to lack of capacity in KNBS. The procurement manager hired by the project under TSU did not mentor staff working on procurement tasks as had been envisaged in the PAD. Instead the TSU procurement manager ended up working alone and frequently committing errors. Non-adherence to the Bank procurement guidelines led to prolonged discussions between the project staff of the Bank and KNBS, resulting in delays in the granting of no objections by the Bank. It further resulted in mis-procurement of some of the bids identified during the Procurement Review. As a result, the final procurement rating was unsatisfactory. 2.2.1 Project disbursement 29. The final disbursement rate of the project is relatively low at approximately 62%. However, before the eighteen month extension in December 2010 the disbursement rate was only 24%. The disbursement rate began to improve after the Mid-Term Review (MTR) in November 2009, when a process was put in place for the Bank to have monthly meetings with the KNBS Board to monitor the implementation progress. The completion of the Population Census between August 2009 and August 2010 also enabled KNBS management to pay more attention to the project priority activities, especially in the area of economic statistics, but also highlighted the constraints of KNBS’s management in being able to manage a number of large statistical activities at the same time. The project restructuring also contributed to increasing the rate of disbursement, since it facilitated shifting funds away from non-performing areas to priority activities. 7 2.2.2 Human resource development 30. The training and recruitment of staff by the project resulted in a significant increase in the quality and quantity of statistics produced by KNBS and project beneficiary MDAs. As part of the reforms undertaken after the enactment of the new Statistics Act 2006, the Director General and new management staff were appointed by the KNBS Board, all the former staff of CBS were interviewed and suitable ones were hired afresh by the KNBS. 31. Significant progress has been made in relation to human resource development, where particular attention has been given to providing basic training in statistical procedures and the use of relevant computer hardware and software. In total, over 4000 staff from KNBS and across government underwent various training activities. However, more than half of these were sensitization-training seminars for capacity building in collecting vital statistics. More than 1,000 staff from MDAs was trained in basic statistics and computer applications related to data management. Other areas covered were data analysis, report writing, project cycle management, and geographical management systems. 32. The staff capacity improvements mentioned above has impacted positively on the production and use of statistics in the county and there is generally a positive perception of the NSS among data users and producers and appreciation of the improvements in data coverage, timeliness, and reliability of many official statistics. 2.2.3 Online data dissemination and outreach 33. Despite slow progress in data dissemination, the project has contributed to availing datasets from KNBS, and indirectly to statistical capacity development across MDAs, which has helped generate data for the Kenya Open Data Initiative launch in 2011. However, the Open Data Initiative is still fragile, mainly because of insufficient data flows from both KNBS and MDAs to the data platform. KenInfo, the online database housed in KNBS for the Mid-Term Priorities (MTP) indicators, has not been seen as a priority activity and as a consequence most of the indicators are out-of-date. 34. Lastly, links with universities failed to materialize. For a number of reasons, KNBS was unable to identify a local university that was expected to strengthen teaching and training in official statistics at both professional and sub-professional levels. This was seen as an important part of the human resources component in the PAD, and was raised in virtually all project supervision missions. Thus KNBS did not develop any twinning arrangement with a suitably qualified and experienced university or teaching institution in or outside Kenya. 8 2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation, and Utilization 2.3.1 M&E design 35. In order to monitor the implementation process an institutional framework was established. The Government set up a National Steering Committee (NSC) that was responsible for overall project implementation. It provided a channel through which the TSU informed MDAs’ top management about the progress, prevailing bottlenecks, and policy direction required for smooth operation and implementation of the project. The NSC was later replaced by the KNBS Board that came into being after the promulgation of the Statistics Act in 2007. 2.3.2 M&E implementation 36. To track progress toward the desired outcomes, KNBS, through the TSU, was expected to conduct M&E activities through quarterly Interim Financial Management Reports (IFRs) and the Government Auditors annual reports, joint government/donors supervision mission, including mid-term reviews. M&E activities were initially monitored by NSC and later by the KNBS Board. Progress against the agreed results in the M&E framework was monitored on a regular basis both during supervision mission as well as during meetings between the Bank team and the TSU team on various project implementation issues. 2.3.3 M&E utilization 37. The M&E system has generally performed below expectations. Although the M&E system focused on the activities identified in the annual work plans during project implementation period, there was insufficient focus on monitoring the outcomes defined in the project results framework. The project M&E framework was regularly reviewed jointly by the TSU and Bank teams, but despite the problems identified with the results framework the indicators were not re-specified in a project restructuring. In the early phases of the project, reports, such as audit reports, progress reports, and work plans, were produced as planned. However, at later stages of the project results progress reports were not produced regularly. The quarterly IRFs reports were produced regularly at the end of each quarter. 2.4 Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance 38. Safeguard Compliance: The project was not considered to have any adverse environmental impact. 39. Fiduciary Compliance: The initial assessments of procurement and financial management capacity demonstrated substantial weaknesses. To substantially mitigate these risks, a Transition Support Unit (TSU) was established and staffed in KNBS, meeting Bank’s conditions of effectiveness. Similarly, a Project Implementation Manual and a Manual of Procedures were prepared and cleared by the Bank prior to project effectiveness. The TSU staff consisted of a project coordinator, a financial management specialist, a 9 procurement specialist, a technical manager, IT expert and HRD expert. Internal management control was carried out by KNBS. A computerized financial management and accounting system was developed using the project funds. External audits were carried out each year by Government Auditor General. Frequent joint supervision missions were carried out by the Bank’s project team, the government and other donors supporting statistics. 40. Procurement remained a problematic issue during most of the implementation period mainly due to lack of capacity in KNBS. The procurement manager who was hired by the project did not have support staff to work on procurement tasks as had been envisaged in the PAD. KNBS did not make any effort to have skills transferred from the TSU procurement manager to KNBS staff as envisaged in the PAD. The problem was raised repeatedly by the Bank’s supervision team, and the KNBS management repeatedly promised to hire procurement staff just for this role but did not follow through with action. 2.5 Post-completion Operation/Next Phase 41. Government’s actions show that many of the project’s reforms and changes are likely to be sustained. Since legal and institutional reforms carried out under the project have been enshrined in legislation, they are unlikely to be reversed. KNBS has used its own resources to set up a national statistics coordination unit within one of its directorates, and this unit is expected to carry out the NSS coordination functions formerly undertaken by the TSU. The recurrent activities of KNBS and the MDAs are being funded by government and routine data production and reporting of some economic statistics has continued sustaining the changes brought about by the project. A new Statistics Development Strategy is being prepared for 2013/14-2017/18, focusing on the (a) review of the legal, institutional and organizational framework to take account of the county governments created by the new constitution; (b) further improvement of the statistical data production and analyses; (c) improvement of data storage and diffusion mechanism; (d) the strengthening of human and physical capacity; and (e) improvement of the statistics dissemination and micro-data access mechanism. The government has indicated that it will be approaching the country’s development partners to finance certain parts of the proposed strategy. Particularly items (b), (d) and (e), which require large expenditures relative to the KNBS’s overall budget. But it is unlikely that the progress made on economic statistics will be sustained without additional Bank support, and no other donor has indicated its willingness to support economic statistics. 42. As mentioned above, at the time the initial credit was approved it was anticipated that if the first phase of STATCAP achieved its objectives, and if the GOK required further financing to implement its long-term strategy, a second phase would be considered. Despite the continued financing need, the Bank has not considered a second phase of the APL given the lack of progress with respect to meeting the project development objectives on data dissemination. Nevertheless, with the promulgation of the new constitution in August 2010, the success of the Government‘s efforts to strengthen the statistics sector rests on a gradual improvement in the capacity and performance of the county statistics offices and their integration into the national statistical system. This requires the continued provision of 10 technical advice and support, to help counties to prepare their strategic plans and, especially, to support their implementation. The Bank may well be able to play an important role in supporting the dialogue with counties as well as helping to share experiences, expertise (particularly through South-South dialogue) from other Bank STATCAP projects. Such an engagement would provide access to high-level advice, technical support and examples of best practice from other countries. 3. Assessment of Outcomes 3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design, and Implementation 3.1.1 Relevance of the objectives 43. Relevance of the STATCAP project to the PRSP and CAS: The PDOs of the STATCAP project were highly relevant to the country context and the priorities of GoK, the Bank, and external Development Partners. The project was fully aligned with the four objectives of the IP-ERS and the Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) which supported the Government’s efforts to implement the IP-ERS. Both the IP-ERS and the CAS highlight the importance of reliable on regular statistical information for implementation monitoring and sound policy-making. 3.1.2 Relevance of the design 44. The project was developed based upon the Government’s National Statistics Strategic Plan and its implementation provided the resources to achieve important parts of the strategic plan that were otherwise infeasible. By establishing the statistics sector working groups and encouraging preparation of integrated work plans, the project created a strong coordination vehicle for KNBS and MDAs to prioritize their statistical activities, and to avoid duplication of surveys. The project also laid the foundation for future investments in the sector by government and development partners. 45. The monitoring framework was designed under the Global STATCAP umbrella program, and contained a mix of DPO indicators focusing on both data production and dissemination (although the focus was predominantly on data production and capacity development). However, some of the indicators, such as reporting annually on the IDA14 and /MDG outcomes were incorrectly specified and not applicable since this is not a requirement for individual countries. 46. Further, project preparation would have benefited from a rigorous Governance and Anti-Corruption (GAC) analysis that could have focused on a comprehensive set of issues: political economy, fiduciary safeguards, and transparency and accountability. In this context, though fiduciary aspects were adequately addressed, a thorough GAC analysis would have enabled the highlighting of: (a) the institutional and bureaucratic constraints (i.e., the prevalent “informal rules of the game�); and (b) the channels of beneficiary participation in decision-making and independent means of verification of the project’s progress. 11 3.1.3 Relevance of the implementation 47. There were three factors that impacted negatively on the project’s implementation process: 1. The post- election violence at the end of 2007 had an adverse effect on the project’s work plan as no fieldwork activities or disbursements could be undertaken during the first half of 2008, 2. KNBS’ preparation for the 2009 Population and Housing Census entailed using virtually all its staff in the field preparation exercise, and 3. Capacity of the TSU staff particularly with respect to FM and procurement. Thus fewer staff members were available to carry out other statistical activities contained in the SIMP program. These factors led to a considerable delay in implementation of the project activities, and as a consequence government had to request for an 18 months project extension. 3.2 Achievement of Project Development Objectives 48. Despite the delay in implementation and initial low disbursement rates the STATCAP project made significant progress toward attaining the PDOs. Most significantly was the progress on data production, institutional reform, capacity and infrastructure development (both physical and statistical), and coordination of the NSS. Conversely, the project fell short of meeting its objectives in the areas of data dissemination (including micro data access), and project management — the latter mainly due to weaknesses in procurement and financial management. 12 Table 1: Summary of progress against the PDO indicator targets Indicator Baseline Target Actual 1-a) Lag time to produce full It took 24 months to produce 10-14 months 9 months range of national accounts a full range of NA aggregates aggregates and balancing and balancing items. items in nominal and real National accounts were not terms yielding GDP, as up to date. CPI needed to be defined in GDDS guidelines. revised, consumption of SNA needed to be updated, and CIP needed to be undertaken. 1-b) Lag time to produce 9 months. Kenya was in the 6-9 months 9 months for comprehensive data on process of adopting the annual; transactions of central Government Financial Government and debt, as Statistics (GFS) 2001 3 months for defined in GDDS guidelines. Manual. the quarterly budget outturns. 1-c) Lag time to produce 1 month 2-3 months 1 month comprehensive data emphasizing the coverage of (Was not well specified at Publishing of all banking institutions, as the design phase, should monthly defined in GDDS guidelines. have been 3-4 months) monetary indicators. 1-d) Lag time to produce 12 months for annual BoP 6-9 months. 9 months and comprehensive data on the 3 months main aggregates and Improving the balancing items of the coverage and balance of payments, as measurement defined in GDDS guidelines. of all BoP accounts. 2-a) Lag time to report the 24 months 12 months 9 months CBS’ annual Economic Survey and the annual The Statistical Abstract had Release of the Statistics Abstract containing no table presenting the 36 of Statistics timely data on the 36 the APR indicators. Abstract with Outcome Indicators specified all of APR in the 2004/5 Annual report—with Progress Report. all MTP indicators on time. 2-b) Lag time to place the None. 12 months + 12 months above targeted statistical products, timely on the CBS Statistical products were website with relevant placed on the CBS website metadata and findings. with great variability and often long delays. 3-a) Lag time CBS provides Not applicable indicator (as 3 months Not applicable timely reports on IDA 14 individual countries were not 13 sector outcomes annually. expected to produce annual reports on IDA 14 indicators). 3-b) Lag time CBS website Not done. No reports on the 12 months. 12 months reports provide timely progress in achieving the information on progress in MDGs. achieving the MDG indicators annually. 49. Of the first four PDO indicators that focused on reductions in data production time, all four achieved their targets. The production of the production time of the full range of national accounts was reduced from previously 24 months to 9 months in 2012. In addition, KNBS developed a framework for compilation of quarterly GDP series, which have been produced regularly since July 2007. The lag time for the production of Government Financial Statistics is still nine months; however in addition, Ministry of Finance now produces quarterly budget outturns, which was not produced previously. Similarly with STATCAP support the Central Bank now produces weekly bulletins of banking institutions and the production time for balance of payment statistics has been reduced from 12 to nine months. 50. Of the four indicators that focused on data dissemination the first one on publication of the Mid-Term Priority (MTP) indicators was reduced from 24 to 9 months, although the main vessel for dissemination of the MTP indicators is now the Annual Progress Report produced by the M&E Directorate in Ministry of Planning with input from line ministries and KNBS. A further reduction in the production time of the APR is highly desirable as a first draft usually is available four months after the beginning of the fiscal year. The MTP indictors are now uploaded to the national development indicator database, KenInfo, although the lag time is still more than a year after they have been published by MED. The Indicator on annual reports on the IDA 14 indicators is not well specified as this was never the intention of the IDA 14 results indicator framework. However, some of the IDA 14 indicators are published in the annual MDG reports that are prepared with input from KNBS. It should be noted that both the IDA 14 and MDG indicators contain a mix of survey and administrative data that are available at different intervals. 51. Therefore, as outlined in Project Framework Analysis, six out of the seven PDO targets were met. Annex 2 contains additional details on progress against the intermediate output indicators by component. In retrospect, the results framework should have placed a stronger focus on statistical information dissemination and micro-data access, and included indicators that measured the number of produced survey reports and data that are available online for user analysis. For the indicators on public finance, banking institutions, and IDA 14 it would have been useful to reformulate the indicators through a project restructuring so that they captured the intended progress more precisely. At the moment, the results framework does not fully capture the successes that the project contributed to in these areas. 52. KNBS has now been transformed from a Government department (CBS) to a semi- autonomous agency, and GOK has completed the staff transition process, including 14 assimilation of nearly all Government staff that had been seconded to KNBS (some staff opted to remain GoK staff). The project financed 13 out of the 15 surveys under the KNBS Strategic Plan (2008-12), including a number of important economic surveys that have significantly improved the compilation of the national accounts. GOK also funded the majority of the 2009 Census exercise, whose basic report was produced in one year—one of the best results for the production of census reports in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Consistent progress has also been made across the NSS, both with respect to data production from administrative records kept by MDAs, and coordination of data producers across selected sectors. 53. In the framework of coordination organized by KNBS, the dialogue between KNBS and MDAs has significantly improved with the establishment of sector working groups and an integrated work plan, KNBS is now able to provide more technical support to the MDAs. Staff members if the beneficiary MDAs have received specific training and improved their skills, and additional qualified staff have been hired by KNBS. Statistics units in main MDAs have developed and/or upgraded and put into operation their core statistical programs and disseminated the results via the main KNBS publications such as the Economic Survey and Statistics Abstract. Internationally accepted standards and methodologies are used in data production as per GDDS recommendations and sound and well-accepted statistical techniques are used for data collection, compilation, and analysis. KNBS now has a more efficient senior management team trained in procurement, financial and administrative management and in leadership. Several MDAs have recognized the importance of statistics and have created statistics units and other related department. This has been the case in the Ministries of Trade, Industry, Gender and Social Services, and the Police, Probation and Judiciary Departments, 54. Data supported by the project were integrated into critical strategy documents. The IP-ERS annual reports (APR), and the Vision 2030 strategy have made an extensive use of KNBS data. Through the project support, the KNBS was able to produce most indicators for monitoring the various dimensions of poverty with the country. The independent evaluation of KNBS performance in November 2010confirmed that KNBS has played a major role in the regular production of data on living conditions of households (particularly poverty). Basic statistical publications are produced regularly and timely. KNBS data quality has also been widely recognized as good. 55. Macroeconomic statistical improvements are critical, particularly national accounts and consumer price indices (CPI). The project supported move from the System of National Accounts1968 (SNA68) to SNA93. The SNA93 represents a significant increase in the coverage of national accounts through the inclusion of the informal sector and tourism sector. The project also assisted KNBS to develop a framework for compilation quarterly GDP figures, which are now produced regularly. It further supported to revision of the CPI series, including adoption of a new CPI computation method that was introduced in 2009. The project also helped to improve the quality and timely production of external trade data that are indispensable for the compilation of the balance of payments. The production of external trade data was reduced from three months to one month. The project enabled KNBS to carry out a Census of Establishments, whose results were used to compile 15 a new register of business establishment to be used for establishment-based sample surveys. A register of establishments had not been updated since 1992, despite its importance in sampling for surveys relating to industrial production, domestic trade and distribution. 56. There has been limited accessibility to targeted statistical products. Generally speaking, significant improvement in the statistical data production was achieved, as compared to the situation prior to the project implementation. This improvement could be seen from the expansion of the data presented in the Economic Survey, the Statistics Abstract and publication of the reports of virtually all the surveys undertaken by KNBS during the project implementation period. Despite the progress in data production, there has been limited progress in user access to the data and other statistical information produced by most the MDAs. The Censuses and surveys undertaken by KNBS are traditionally launched in hardcopy with only headline statistics being made available in electronic (pdf) format online. Access to anonymized micro data is limited and KNBS’ dissemination framework is largely viewed as functioning poorly by data users. The only indicators that are regularly updated on KNBS' website are the monthly CPI, the quarterly GDP aggregates, and some basic monthly economic indicators, such as coffee and tea prices. Most reports of the economic and social surveys completed over the decades are not available online. Access to anonymized micro-data is not widespread, and KNBS’s dissemination framework is therefore largely viewed as functioning poorly by the data users. Therefore, more efforts would be required on the part of KNBS and GOK to provide wider access to and enable utilization of economic and social surveys and the aggregate macroeconomic developments. 3.3 Efficiency 57. The economic benefits of the project are expected to derive from three main sources. First, improvement in the efficiency of statistical operations and agencies to result in broader coverage and higher-quality data. Second, better quality data to enhance the potential for evidence-based decision making, at policy, program and project levels. Third, the project to help address the significant costs of poor decisions made on the basis of missing or inaccurate data. 58. The project is not amenable to a financial analysis because national statistical offices have very limited opportunities to recover costs, apart from selling compendiums of data. National statistics are generally considered public goods and are generally financed from Government revenue. Therefore, only marginal financial returns are expected from this project. However, indirectly, the project is expected to promote improved allocation of resources, enhanced social monitoring of the impact of Government spending and reduction in revenue leakages by providing more accurate information on economic activity to the public at large, and the tax authorities in particular. 16 3.4 Justification of Overall Outcome Rating Rating: Moderately Unsatisfactory 59. The overall outcome is rated moderately unsatisfactory based on the fact that despite the fact that project has helped to increase data production and trigger the long term institutional reform process being carried out by the Government, the project never overcame issues related to financial management, procurement and data dissemination which led to low disbursements and slow pace of implementation. While most of the PDO indicators met their targets, progress on implementation of some of the key project components was slower than expected. While the majority of the intermediate indicators were also achieved, additional justification for the overall rating of moderately unsatisfactory is given below. 60. The project was a relevant and timely, but not fully efficient development intervention, as highlighted in the sections 3.1-3.3 above. The project was well prepared to address the evolving needs for developing NSS in Kenya. Toward this objective, major advances were made in strengthening the institutional infrastructure for statistical capacity, most notably the establishment of KNBS as a coordination agency, provision of goods and training in the MDAs, and the financing/conducting/reporting of essential surveys. 61. Whereas, the project made significant achievements despite implementation delays and mixed results on fiduciary and procurement related issues, the shortcomings are significant and their impact on decision-making has reduced the use of the statistics produced. Nevertheless, the production, quality and frequency of statistics produced by KNBS and beneficiary MDAs have improved substantially. The national statistical system is now operating in a better-coordinated and regulated environment. Working conditions for KNBS staff have significantly improved and a larger and more qualified work force that was hired by KNBS is ensuring that progress will be sustainable. In light of these improvements, shortcomings in reaching the targets set for the outcomes are not expected to have significant effect on the impact of the project. The establishment of sector working groups and an NSS coordination unit in KNBS which will be fully in charge of coordinating the entire statistics system continue to ensure improve coherence of data by reviewing and approving the methods used and ensuring that statistical norms are respected by all MDAs. 62. The development objective was sound and rated Satisfactory. It responded to the needs identified in Kenya’s IP-ERS, and Vision 2030 strategies, as well as MDGs, and meeting the results-based management requirements of development partners (e.g. the Bank’s CAS). As stated above, the project achieved most of its objectives and created a stronger national statistical system that will effectively contribute to the monitoring and evaluation of development programs. 63. The project design is rated Moderately Satisfactory. Although it addressed the key issues raised in the results matrix of the SIMP and supported its implementation, the inclusion of 14 MDAs as project beneficiaries was ambitious, and contributed to the challenge of implementing large and complex annual work plans in a timely manner. Some 17 of the PDO indicators in the results matrix were not well specified and should have been changed through a project restructuring. Additionally, they did not focus sufficiently on the issue of data dissemination, which was one of the main challenges for the project. However, it should be noted, that the project was one of the first sector-wide approaches for statistics, and thus there was little experience on which to base the M&E system. Following the mid-term review, challenges and lessons learned were addressed and applied to improve project performance during the last three years of the project. Performance during the second half of the project was therefore significantly improved with a greater focus on results and higher disbursement rates. 64. The implementation of the project is rated Moderately Unsatisfactory. The implementation of the project supported increased production of better quality and more timely data, particularly in the area of economic statistics. However; the many challenges faced by the project significantly reduced overall progress. Whereas statistical periodicals are published regularly and this trend seems sustainable, survey reports and data are not generally free for users to access, unless through KNBS’s library. However, the project supported technical and management training for a significant number of managers at KNBS and there is now growing evidence for increased FM and procurement capacity in KNBS itself. Likewise, training of statisticians and adoption of up-to-date techniques and methods have improved data accuracy, timeliness and consistency among sectoral statistics. As a consequence, a better coordinated statistical system has evolved. These achievements have significantly strengthened the organizational and technical capacities of KNBS and the beneficiary MDAs. However, although data production improved significantly, public access to data was still limited to traditional hard copy dissemination, and KNBS has made little efforts to encourage on-line data access and dissemination of data in useable electronic formats. Furthermore, the project suffered several implementation bottlenecks— stemming from (a) FM and procurement irregularities leading to a poor disbursement rate and delays; and (b) accordingly, failure to complete several of the important tasks (e.g., implementing KIHBS II, finalizing NASSEP V, and timely collation and dissemination of the statistical information to the general public). 65. In summary, because of the challenges described above the outputs of STATCAP project are yet to be translated into sustained outcomes—which should be the focus of potential follow-on operations by the Bank, GOK, and Development Partners. Specifically, concerted efforts will be required to move beyond the emphasis on data production, and clearly identify the utilization of statistical indicators to measure public sector performance with the aim of improving delivery of essential services. This will require improvements in administrative statistics. 66. Overall, the project met the main objective of reforming KNBS and creating conditions and incentives for the MDAs to improve statistics. However, it did not meet expectations with respect to data dissemination. As long as the established sector working groups and preparation of integrated work plans are sustained, with additional capacity building and knowledge transfer, the system currently in place will help to improve collection of key statistical indicators and improve the overall statistical capacity at KNBS 18 and across MDAs. Nevertheless, in order to improve institutional effectiveness KNBS needs to strengthen its internal financial management and procurement functions. 3.5 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes and Impacts (a) Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development 67. The loan did not have any direct impact on poverty reduction. However by improving statistics and building institutional capacity in KNBS and MDAs, it initiated reforms that will improve monitoring of poverty and social data. The standardization of MDAs statistics supported by the project focuses on the coordination and harmonization of key statistical activities that are used to monitor and evaluate the implementation of the government’s poverty programs. These key poverty-related statistical activities produced by the project beneficiaries include the education and literacy statistics, disability statistics, morbidity and fertility statistics as well as price statistics. All of them are critical element of the policymaking and would contribute to more efficient and targeted social assistance thus alleviating poverty in the country. (b) Institutional Change/Strengthening 68. The impact of the project on institutional strengthening originates from the design of the operation supporting institutional and legal reform in the area of statistics. One of the project’s objectives was to help Kenya set up an institutional framework for better statistics. The main institutional impact of the reforms supported by the Credit is based on the legal and institutional reform listed below. Increased independence of the statistical system, which was effected through the promulgation of a new Statistics Act in 2006, the appointment of a Director General, six directors to run the KNBS and independent Board to set strategic priorities, and the creation of a semi-autonomous government agency. Prior to the project, the Bureau was headed by a director and one deputy. The project supported a reorganization of KNBS into six directorates. This resulted in the creation of a Director General and six directors – all recruited through a competitive process. Thus KNBS benefitted from the recruitment of a large number of new staff at management level and intensive training of the lower level staff. Most MDAs became aware of the importance of statistics and some created statistics units that are working closely with KNBS. (c) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts (positive or negative): 69. There were no unintended outcomes. 3.6 Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops Not Applicable. 19 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome Rating: Substantial. 70. The STATCAP project intended to lay the foundations for future GOK support to the NSS in Kenya. GOK was expected to gradually increase its budget allocations to KNBS and other key MDAs. There is, however, insufficient information on the financial contribution of GOK to the Strategic Plan. Certainly, the current levels of Government funding are insufficient for the KNBS’s current work program. As a consequence, a number of the areas, particularly in economic statistics, where the project contributed to updating the baseline statistics there is a risk that data will be increasingly out of date without additional financial support from GoK or DPs. To date, neither the Bank, nor DFID, has committed to a follow-on project - though there are indications that some donors may be interested in financing a part of the budget for the next KIHBS II Survey. 71. A number of substantial risks to the defined project development objectives were identified during the design of the project, including government commitment to statistics, capacity issues, financial sustainability, a complex institutional setup, and weak financial management, procurement, and audit systems. Whereas government commitment to the national statistical system has remained strong, the commitment to disseminate statistics from KNBS and line ministries remain less clear, and data users are still facing difficulties accessing both survey and routine data. There has been good progress in addressing capacity issues, both with respect to training, coordination, and quality assurance across the national statistical system. There has also been some progress with respect to addressing audit qualifications identified in the national audit reports. However, within KNBS financial management and procurement challenges have persisted and KNBS has not yet had an external procurement review by the Public Procurement Oversight Authority. There has been substantial progress with respect to the institutional setup with the passing of the Statistical Act and the establishment of the national statistical system, including the four statistics sector working groups. These are structures that have continued to be operational after project closure. 72. The sustainability of the achievements depends on a concerted effort by external development partners and GOK to provide additional finance and technical assistance for statistical capacity building. 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance 5.1 Bank Performance (a) Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 73. The project preparation phase accurately identified the problems Kenya was facing and the need for developing a SIMP to be used for implementation of priority activities identified in the Government’s Statistics Strategic Plan. The project was properly designed to address the key issues raised and to carry out the actions proposed in the Plan. Lessons 20 from other operations and projects and complementarities with ongoing initiatives were taken into consideration. Attention was given to involve all partners and stakeholders in the preparation and design of the project. The project components and activities were fully in line with the overall country development objectives. A sound institutional setup was proposed with a TSU established within the KNBS and under its authority. Two areas that needed management attention in project preparation, peer review, and approval, especially in hindsight, were: a) PFM and procurement risks were correctly flagged as Substantial risks, but the mitigation efforts through the establishment of a TSU proved to be insufficient because KNBS did not avail its FM and procurement staff for mentoring by TSU staff as it was envisaged in the PAD. Most supervision efforts concentrated on resolving PFM and procurement irregularities rather than focusing on implementation progress and the likelihood of achieving the PDOs. b) Though the project components were not particularly complex, there were two inherent risks of government commitment to full implementation of activities identified in the SIMP. The post-2007 election violence slowed down field data collection activities for key statistical surveys for nearly a year. The heavy schedule for conducting the countrywide Population Census in 2009 entailed use of all KNBS management staff in this area. The uncertainty about the date of the elections originally scheduled for August 2012 (and which took place in March 2013) also created substantial challenges for planning survey fieldwork. Thus other project activities were put on hold during this period. Future project preparation should take consideration of such events that tend to adversely affect implementation of key activities within the project program. (b) Quality of Supervision Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 74. The overall supervision was moderately satisfactory. The ICR mission found that project supervision improved appreciably in the last two years of the project period. Bank responses to the issues raised by government counterpart were generally timely. The change from the first half of the project is attributable to: (a) Increase in the size of Bank team working on the project; and (b) hiring of in-house statistician (hired by DFID) who worked on the project implementation activities on a full-time basis. Supervision missions were satisfactory with clear and detailed aide-memoires, including good input from the Bank financial management and procurement specialists. The Bank task team paid attention to FM issues throughout the implementation period. The Bank FM and procurement specialists joined most project supervision missions and exercised close supervision of the TSU’s financial management work and the auditor’s performance. The ISRs were regularly produced and reflected the progress of the project or lack thereof. The main weak point related to the Bank’s fiduciary (FM and Procurement) reviews which were undertaken too late in the project implementation period, and therefore their recommendations could not be adequately addressed before in good time as the project closure date approached. In hindsight, the Bank should also have insisted on improved staff 21 in the TSU procurement section and including a reformulation of the PDO indicators in the 2010 restructuring. At the time, the option of not extending the project was weighed against the potential benefits of realizing additional project objectives, such as implementing the master household sampling frame and conducting the next KIHBS II. 75. Financial Management (FM) was moderately unsatisfactory. Project FM also experienced difficulties during the implementation period. There was frequent turnover of finance managers and project accountants. The turnover contributed to qualified audit reports received from both the Kenya National Audit Office on the annual financial statements and issues raised by the Bank’s FM Specialist on the quarterly financial management reports and supervision reports. In order to strengthen its financial management capacity, KNBS recruited five new staff members within the finance department. This improved the speed of processing documents and the preparation of the bank reconciliation statements. However, KNBS did not make progress over the various financial processes that were being performed by the TSU’s finance manager, and therefore there was little linkage between the financial management activities of KNBS and that for the project. 76. The quality of the Bank’s supervision was moderately satisfactory. Although there were a number of changes to Bank project team leadership during the project’s life, the Bank’s management is rated moderately satisfactory. During the project’s initial phase (April 2004-December 2008), the project had a project team leader (TTL) based in Nairobi; he was a fully qualified statistician with sufficient knowledge and experience in bank project implementation procedures and the functioning of the national statistics office. After the retirement of the field-based TTL in December 2008, the TTLship was transferred to headquarters during January-November 2009; this was a weak period for project supervision and most of the day-to-day supervision issues took too long to be addressed. However, from end 2009 to the project closure project supervision was of higher quality— with two experienced co-TTLs, a consultant, and other short-term professionals working on technical assistance provided under the project. During this period, the Bank’s processes functioned well and No Objections were provided within days, and strong technical assistance was provided across a number of important activities. (c) Justification of Rating for Overall Bank Performance Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 77. This rating reflects a balance of: (a) less-than-satisfactory quality at entry of the project; and (b) better-than-satisfactory supervision efforts for remedying the poor implementation of the project. 78. The overall rating for the Bank’s Performance is Moderately Satisfactory. The Bank worked closely with the government to develop a relevant legal and institutional reform agenda that strategically addressed several core constraints that hindered production and use of quality statistics in the country. The composition of the Bank team remained adequate throughout the project implementation period, except for the short period in 2009 when the TTL was based in Washington DC. Field visits were carried out as scheduled 22 and advised by the Bank and external experts were hired when necessary. The team maintained a close collaboration with key stakeholders in the government, NGOs, civil society, and business community and played a catalytic role in encouraging other development partners to support statistical capacity development throughout the project life. The Bank team’s quick and positive response to issues raised by its counterparts in the government helped achieve the key project objectives. 5.2 Borrower Performance (a) Government Performance Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 79. Overall Government (Moderately Satisfactory): The government remained committed to the project implementation. From the inception stage, the government acted in support of the project. After preparing the Statistics Strategic Plan in 2003-3008, the government requested the Bank to support its implementation and made a commitment to increase its allocation towards statistics activities, especially supplementing training and meeting operating costs and wages for the new KNBS staff. It approved all the proposed reforms for the National Statistical System. It enacted the new law that enabled CBS to become a semi-autonomous government agency with an independent Board. The government also prepared second national statistical strategy for 2008-2012 after expiration of the previous one. It is now in the process of preparing a third strategy for the next five years. Both the Minister and the Permanent Secretary, with responsibility for statistics, supported the project and endorsed the implemented activities. However, and despite the Kenya Open Data Initiative, there has not been sufficient commitment and demand from senior management for data dissemination neither at KNBS nor in partnering line ministries. As a result, KNBS and MDAs have not increased the provision of online statistics for public use. (b) Implementing Agency or Agencies Performance Rating: Moderately Unsatisfactory 80. KNBS (successor to CBS) has played a key role in galvanizing the team effort of the STATCAP project. Notable among its achievements has been the subsequent strengthening of its governance structure and administration. 81. The implementing Agency’s performance is rated as Moderately Unsatisfactory. While KNBS has played a consistent and pivotal role in advancing the planned reforms, Bank supervision missions identified at an early stage the need for more intensive efforts to achieve satisfactory progress under the project, in particular with regard to establishing an effective system to monitor progress, the need for greater systematic guidance and more timely support to MDAs and the need to enhance coordination and clarity on the division of work between staff of KNBS and TSU. In addition, senior management in KNBS was not prepared to authorize the broad and online publication of the surveys the project financed, thereby slowing down progress towards the PDOs on data dissemination. 23 82. KNBS Board (Moderately Satisfactory). As stated above, a national steering committee (NSC) acted as an oversight body of the project. NSC was succeeded by the KNBS Board in July 2007. Both the NSC and the Board were composed of major stakeholders (excluding donors), met on quarterly basis. They supervised the proper functioning of the project, reviewed annual work and budget programs and quarterly and annual progress reports. The Bank repeatedly raised issues of financial management, procurement and data dissemination to the Board. However, the Board seems to have had only modest success in influencing senior leadership in KNBS to improve the identified issues, particularly with respect to procurement and data dissemination. 83. KNBS staff and TSU (Moderately Unsatisfactory). All KNBS directorates participated in the execution of the activities assigned to them. KNBS provided support to MDAs to help them improve data production and engaged in a productive dialogue with those MDAs with other data users. The TSU prepared annual work and budget programs and annual progress reports that Bank supervision found satisfactory. During the first year, the project faced some difficulties in setting up adequate and performing financial management arrangements partly due to the weaknesses of the financial management expert that was hired. This was corrected when the TSU hired another FM expert. The performance function of the TSU was, however, weak throughout the life of the project, despite repeated efforts by the Bank supervision team to highlight the problem. TSU also played a key coordination role among statistics producing agencies and between those agencies and users. It also played a clearing house role for all major statistical operations to be carried out by MDAs by ensuring the relevance; conformity and quality of design, avoiding duplication and providing the final “go ahead� after consultation with KNBS management, which is responsible for overall technical coordination. KNBS’ rating of moderately unsatisfactory stems from the continued failure of the KNBS management to address the evolving problems flagged by the Bank’s supervision team, principally those related to procurement. Other Statistics Producers (MDAs) Rating: Moderately Satisfactory 84. MDAs in charge of producing sector statistics were actively committed to and involved in the project. The MDAs worked in close collaboration with KNBS, strengthened their statistics departments and very substantially improved the production and dissemination of their data and reports in terms of quality and timeliness. During the project Mid-Term Review and ICR missions, they all expressed their satisfaction with the project and their desire for further Bank support in order to consolidate what has been achieved and take up new requests and challenges. However, there are still challenges with respect to publicly disseminating the data the project helped to produce. (c) Justification of Rating for Overall Borrower Performance Rating: Moderately Unsatisfactory 85. The overall performance of the Borrower is rated Moderately Unsatisfactory mainly because of the Moderately Unsatisfactory ratings for the implementing agency and the TSU 24 unit, even though the project implementation record improved over time, especially after the Mid-term Review mission. Nevertheless, significant issues in FM, procurement and data dissemination were never successfully addressed and since all the above sub-ratings are either Moderately Satisfactory or Moderately Unsatisfactory, this justifies the Moderately Unsatisfactory rating. 6. Lessons Learned Bank-Wide 86. Bank supervision and project restructuring. In retrospect, the Bank project team should have taken a harder line and tried to overhaul the project at some point. This could have included downgrading the project when product disbursement was below projections, restructuring the project to have a narrower focus, and refusing to provide a no objection to extending the contracts of non-performing TSU staff. The team faced disincentives to these measures because they would have potentially further disrupted the project in the short term and strained the Bank’s already difficult relationship with the KNBS Director-General. Such an overhaul, however, might have led to a more successful project implementation over the longer term. 87. Restructuring results. Project Development Objective Indicators should be closely linked to Development Objectives. The PAD lists five headline PDOs, eight PDO Indicators, and seven Intermediate Outcomes, without a clear mapping between the three categories. The eight DO Indicators are heavily weighted to measures of timely data production, which does not figure directly in any of the five PDOs. Likewise, the legal and institutional reforms which were a central focus of the project are included among the five headline DOs and reflected in the Intermediate Outcomes but do not appear at all in the PDO Indicators. In retrospect, the eight PDO Indicators should have been overhauled at the time of the first restructuring to more properly reflect the PDOs. In future statistics projects, a close connection between indicators and objectives should be insured at the time of project design. 88. Linking objectives and results. In statistics projects, closer attention should be given to measuring relevant results. This applies to both information used to inform the PDO Indicators and to information that would enable the project team to better understand project performance. Three particular pieces of information would have been helpful to have tracked in this project: 1) objective assessments of the reliability, accuracy, and quality of official statistics, using common frameworks like ROSC, GDDS, and DQAF; 2) information on data usage including systematic user surveys, traffic on the KNBS website, email inquiries, library visits, media citations; and 3) measures of statistical agency efficiency, such as cost per household or enterprise to conduct particular surveys. Provision should be made at the time of project design to collect this information before initiation of the project, as well as at regular intervals during the course of the project. 89. Data dissemination. Making data freely available to the public should be a principal objective of future statistics project. The Kenya STATCAP was developed before 25 the World Bank and the international development community had more broadly recognized the tremendous value and importance of Open Data policies and related approaches. Consequently, data access and dissemination was not given much emphasis in the project. It is now understood the data production as an end in itself is of limited value if only few users can access the data. As a broad principle, data that is collected with public funds should be freely available to the public (mainly in anonymized form and with some exceptions for data relating to national security, etc.) 90. Design of complex statistical operations. Particularly in difficult environments with less enthusiastic counterparts, alternatives to the traditional STATCAP model could be considered. The Kenya STATCAP had a very broad approach by which almost any expense-related to statistics other than salaries could potentially be covered by the project. This type of financing is in contrast to what most other donors do in statistics, which is to finance only very narrow projects, e.g. an individual survey. A positive aspect of this approach is that the project can remain flexible and change over time in response to changing emphasis on the part of the borrower. Another positive aspect is that these projects can fund smaller scale items such as ongoing training and equipment purchases, which are often neglected in more narrowly tailored approaches. This approach probably works best when the counterpart is highly motivated and the Bank team has strong confidence that the counterparts will put the money to good use. 91. In a difficult environment, supervision is a challenge for a broad-based statistical program. In the Kenya STACAP proposed expenses were outlined in annual work plans which were developed by the TSU and submitted to the Bank supervision team for no objection. Because these work plans were very extensive, covering a large number of small expenses, it was impossible for the Bank project team to fully interrogate the merits of each and every item. Furthermore, as almost any expense was potentially eligible, the supervision team had no basis on which to reject elements of the work plan, except in cases where the proposed work was clearly of little or no value. 92. Activity focused design. Following the current emphasis on a “results-based� approach to development projects in general, a more narrowly tailored approach may be desirable in difficult environments like that of Kenya. A set of activities could be identified in the project design phase, and the project could focus on ensuring that those particular activities took place. This less ambitious approach would have a greater chance of achieving its objectives, and the Bank could be confident that its funds were well-spent. This approach could still include support like capacity building for particular purposes, but all expenses would be tied to outputs. 93. Focusing the lending instrument on results. One variation on this approach would be to structure financing using the new Program for Results (P4R) instrument. The “results� could be publicly available data outputs or improvements in FM or procurement. This approach has a number of attractive elements. It would closely tie the money to what it is intended to the objectives, presumably increasing the likelihood of success, and also reducing the burden of supervision for the project team. A disadvantage of this approach is that it would be less flexible and probably less suitable for funding broader purposes like 26 capacity building. Using a P4R approach it would also be necessary to build in a way to measure and certify the quality of the outputs. 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners (a) Borrower/implementing agencies Report from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics on the closure of the National Statistical System Project (NSSP)/STATCAP. 7.1 Background 94. This report gives the status of the closure of the STATCAP/NSSP Project. 95. The Development of the National Statistical System (STATCAP) Project was designed to run for five (5) years from April 2004 to 31st December 2010, when the Government of Kenya and the World Bank signed the Letter of Agreement for the release of Project Preparation Facility (PPF) of USD 1,324,160 for a two year period to start project preparations and implementation of priority activities. 96. The Project’s main credit of US$ 20.5 million was however not approved by the World Bank during the two year period and this necessitated the extension of the PPF period for a further one year (2006/07) with additional allocation of USD 675,840, making the total PPF allocation to be USD 2,000,000. 97. With the delayed approval of the World Bank’s credit, most of the activit ies undertaken in the first two and half years were mainly financed by DFID, who co- financed the project with a grant of GBP£6.5 million. 98. The World Bank’s main credit was approved and signed by the two parties on 23rd May 2007 and became effective on 20th August 2007 upon preparation of an Institutional Risk Management Framework. However, it was not until February 2008 when the first disbursement of US$ 1.5 million was received in the project’s account. The delay was as a result of disbursement process followed by the Government and the World Bank. In addition, the post-election violence contributed to World Bank and other Development Partners withholding development support. 99. The STATCAP Project was initially planned to end on 31st December 2010. After assessing the objectives and expected outputs, it was realized that a number of activities had not been executed as spelt in the initial agreement. The Government requested for an initial 18 month extension to June 2012 and an additional three month extension to 30th September 2012. Thereafter, the project allowed for a four month closure period to deal with all outstanding payments and accounting issues. The new closure date was revised for January 31st 2013. 27 7.2 Project objectives 100. The objective of the Project was to establish a sustainable National Statistical System to provide reliable, timely and accurate data in accordance with international standards through: a) Strengthening the capacity of the relevant statistical agencies through training and adoption of new information and communication technology; b) Carrying out legal and institutional reforms that promote statistical data development; c) Establishing linkages among statistical data producers; d) Promoting statistical information sharing among data producers and users to strengthen the quality of decision making; and e) Developing a data access and dissemination strategy in conformity with relevant legislation and international good practice 101. The project is divided into six components namely: a) Organization Development b) Human Resource Development c) Development of Statistical Infrastructure d) Data Development e) Physical Infrastructure and Equipment f) Implementation Arrangement 102. The first phase of the STATCAP Project was expected to have ended on 30th December 2010, however, the Government sought and was granted an extension of 18 months up to 30th June 2012. The extension was necessitated by the delay in the approval of the main credit was which was approved in May 2007 and became effective in August 2007. However the disbursements started in February 2008, a time when Kenya was facing political instability. Subsequently, there was delay in implementation of key activities including NASSEP V, the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey 2, Medium and Small Enterprise Survey (MSE), Agricultural Census etc. 103. On June 30th 2012, at the official closure of the Project there were a number of key ongoing activities like the NASSEP V and the implementation of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP). The government further requested extension of three (3) months to enable it complete the activities. This was granted on condition that no new activities would be initiated. The final extension only allowed for the completion of ongoing activity and making the relevant payments. This was granted to September 30th 2012. It is estimated that by the closure date about 68% of the availed financial resources had been absorbed. We can comfortable say that the STATCAP Project has substantially achieved the objectives set out in the Results Matrix of the Project Appraisal Document. 28 7.3 Achievements 7.3.1 Organization development 104. The impact of the first phase is clearly visible through the establishment of Statistical Units in several Agencies including the Ministries of Trade and Industrialization, the Judiciary, Police and Prison Departments, and strengthening the existing ones in the STATCAP Agencies. This has resulted in improved data collection and dissemination from the Agencies. 105. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics was the greatest beneficiary from the project. With respect to institutional reform, the Bureau was transformed from a Government department, Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), to a semi-autonomous agency; Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. The KNBS Library was upgraded with security features. The LAN was upgraded, the Web site revamped to support increasing demand from customers. The Bureau has also installed the Enterprise Resource Planning Software to enhance efficiency and effective management of the Bureau. 106. Specifically the project supported and spearheaded the following activities under this component: i. The transformation of the Central Bureau of Statistics, a Government Department to the now Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, a semi-autonomous body; ii. The compilation and implementation of the first Institution Risk Management Framework (IRMF) for the Bureau and the project; iii. The Compilation of three reports ( De-linking Report, Human Resource Policies and Procedures manual, Competency Framework and Pay Policy) which are being used to guide the de-linking process of the Bureau from the Central Government; iv. The re-development of the KNBS web-site as a key source for the dissemination of produced by the KNBS and other NSS Agencies; v. Enhancement of KNBS Local Area Network; vi. The launch and support of the Agriculture, Environment and Nutrition Committee to look into the data gaps in the sector; vii. Supported to the quarterly Trade, Transport and the IT committee viii. Formation and supported the Sector Working Groups (Real; Financial, Fiscal and External; Social and Justice); ix. The Risk Management Sensitization Workshops for KNBS Staff; x. Procured a consultant to take the Bureau through ISO 9001:2008 Certification Process and training of staff; xi. The setting-up of Statistical units in police, judiciary, prisons and ministries of Trade and Industry among other things. 7.3.2 Human resource development 107. The objective of this component was to support training and education to strengthen professional and management skills of producers, suppliers and users of data. Based on a 29 Training Needs Report prepared in 2006, STATCAP supported capacity development, both in KNBS and across the 14 participating MDAs in the National Statistical System. Training courses included basic statistics, computing skills, including SPSS, MS Excel and Access, project management, procurement, financial management, report writing, and monitoring and evaluation. In total, STATCAP has supported capacity development for 4,380 people as tabulated below: 108. Courses conducted since the inception of the project: Name of Course/Workshop No of people trained a) Records Management 5 b) Data Collection, Analysis and Presentation 286 Works Procurement and Workshop on Consultants c) 6 Services d) Data Base Management Oracle 9i 24 e) Data Analysis Using SPSS, 54 f) Basic Computer Applications 317 g) External Trade Statistics 29 h) Financial Management 3 i) Basic Statistics 311 j) Monitoring and Evaluation 22 k) Geographical Information System 34 l) Report Writing 163 m) Project Cycle Management 12 n) MS Access 13 o) Capacity Building workshop on Civil Registration 2,875 p) Gender Statistics 168 q) Study Tour 4 Developing Skills in Planning Monitoring and r) 1 Evaluating Information Systems Measuring the Impact on Return on Investment in s) 1 Training t) Enterprise Risk Management 40 u) Desk Top Publishing 6 v) Disaster Recovery Training 2 w) Web Designing 2 x) Senior Management Course 2 Total 4,380 7.3.3 Data infrastructure 109. With extensive support from STATCAP, KNBS was able to update the statistical infrastructure that governs statistical data collection. The project supported the Census of Establishments and hired a consultant to use the data to update the Master File (Register of Establishments). 30 110. The STATCAP project also supported the establishment of the new master sampling frame for household-based surveys (NASSEP V). The new sampling frame will provide the basis for surveys until the next population and housing census in 2019. Finally, the STATCAP project supported the development of a Statistical Compendium, and the Data Access and Dissemination Policy, which is available online on KNBS' website. 7.3.4 Data development 111. The project contributed both to improving data comprehensiveness and reducing data production time, and the project has achieved all four of its targets on improving the national accounts statistics. With additional support from the IMF, there has also been good progress in terms of improving quality, including upgrading the CPI index. In addition, with support from the project, the statistical and physical infrastructure has been upgraded and human capacity has been strengthened through training, which has contributed to improved data production 112. A number of surveys, censuses and data base development were carried out resulting to increased data volumes for use in decision making, monitoring and evaluation of various development initiatives. The project funded eight (8) out of the fifteen (15) surveys undertaken under the current KNB Strategic Plan (2008-2012), including a number of important economic statistics surveys that significantly improved the compilation of the national accounts. 113. Impressive progress has also been registered across the National Statistical System, both with respect to data production from administrative records kept by various line ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs), and coordination of data producers across sectors. In MDAs, in general, there has been a marked increase in the quantity and quality of data produced, and support from the project has helped to reduce the data production time in some MDAs. For example Kenya Revenue Authority is now releasing trade data with a lag period of 1.5 months instead of the 6 months before the project started supporting the NSS. The production time of the full range of national accounts has been reduced from 24 to 9 months, the production time for the balance of payment statistics has been reduced from 12 to 9 months, while government financial statistics and banking statistics are now more comprehensive and of improved quality compared to the project baselines. 114. Specifically, the following surveys and activities were supported by the project: Surveys and Censuses i. Rapid Health Facility Assessment (R-HFA) Survey ii. Survey of Apartments, Villas and Cottages iii. Census of Industrial Production iv. Foreign Direct Investments Survey v. Kenya Survey of Persons with Disabilities vi. Manpower Survey 31 vii. Informal Cross Border Survey viii. Integrated Services Survey; ix. Independent Monitoring of the Population and Housing Census. x. Publicity and Advocacy Population and Housing Census xi. Disability Survey Data Collection Instruments i. Review and Harmonization of Education Data collection Instruments ii. Review and harmonization of industrial statistics instruments iii. Review and Harmonize Labour Statistics instruments iv. Review of Probation Data collection Instruments v. Review and Revision of Kenya’s National Accounts vi. Review of Data Collection instruments by National Registration Bureau Other Activities i. Data Access and Dissemination Policy ii. Gender Data sheet compilation iii. Re-basing of CPI iv. Creation of a Database for Persons with Disabilities (PWD) v. Development of Integrated Database for the Economic Department, Central Bank of Kenya vi. Agricultural Statistics Situation Analysis vii. Implementation of Integrated Software for management of transaction records viii. Updating of the National Accounts, using the consumption module of Kenya Integrated Household and Budget Survey, and the ISIC 4.0 ix. Adoption of the 2001 Governance Finance Statistics standards 7.3.5 Physical Infrastructure and Equipment 115. Physical infrastructure is an important determinant of capacity to produce statistics for any statistical organization. This component of the project was therefore very important. In general the project provided extensive support to build physical infrastructure in KNBS and across the national statistics system although procurement challenges delayed and sometimes prevented upgrade and transition to improved data production regimes. 116. Several equipment was purchased by the project to support the STATCAP Agencies activities of data collation. The issuance of computers and other equipment enabled the Agencies to enhance their data collection skills and also production of these statistics to regularly appear in the Annual Economic Survey. KRA is a classic example where the purchase of a Server and some four computers reduced the lag time of generating reports from 6 months to six weeks. 32 117. The project has bought the following items and distributed to the Agencies: No Item Description Quantity a. Computers 460 b. TFT Monitors 40 c. Printers 300 d. Workstations and Chairs 390 e. Photocopier 10 f. Server 9 g. Lap Top Computers 43 h. Lap Top Computer (For KIHBS) 70 i. Fax Machine 1 j. LCD Projector 7 k. Motor Vehicles 17 l. Shelves for the Library 50 m. Reading Desks for the Library 60 n. Reading Chairs for the Library 100 7.4 Implementation arrangement 118. The following implementation arrangement assisted in the execution of the project: 7.4.1 The Board of directors 119. This is the national coordinating body that defines the national statistical strategy, policies, priorities and broad implementation arrangements. It oversees national program elaboration and implementation, and bears the responsibility for results and their quality. 7.4.2 Sector working groups 120. Four sectoral tasks teams were established in the areas of Real, Fiscal, Financial, and External, social and Justice Statistics sectors. The teams handled specific sector issues relating to the NSS and the other statistical units in sector ministries. 7.4.3 Staffing of the transitional support unit (TSU) 121. The Transitional Support Unit (TSU) formerly the Project Management Unit (PMU) was formed in June 2004 with recommendations from the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) prepared and agreed upon by the Government and the World Bank. The PMU/TSU structure was proposed to have six managers and three support staff. The managers were Project Manager, Technical Manager, Information Technology Manager, Human Resource Manager, Finance Manager and Logistics and Administration Manager. Support staffs were Secretary, a Driver and an Office assistant. 33 122. Specifically, TSU coordinated project activities of all benefiting institutions including statistical producing units/departments in other ministries, ensure compliance with procurement, disbursement, financial management policies and procedures and manage reporting and auditing activities. The TSU has successfully implemented the project. 7.5 Challenges 7.5.1 Absorption capacity of the project funds: 123. Although the Development of the National Statistical System (STATCAP) Project was designed to run for five (5) years from April 2004, the World Bank’s main credit was approved and signed by the two parties on 23rd May 2007 and became effective on 20th August 2007 upon preparation of an Institutional Risk Management Framework. However, it was not until February 2008 when the first disbursement of US$ 1.5 million was received in the project’s account. The delay was as a result of disbursement process followed by the Government and the World Bank. 124. As a result while the plans for implementing the work plan were available, there were other competing activities from the participating Agencies that did not enable the implementation of the Plans. 7.5.2 Liquidity constraints 125. As a result of lengthy processes in application and receipt of reimbursements, a number of activities were affected hence slowing down the implementation rate. Sometimes the delay would be as long as three months. 7.5.3 Staff turnover 126. The Transition Support Unit was largely affected by staff turnover of Finance Managers. In the life of the Project there were three Finance Managers. The turnover brought with it complications especially in financial reporting and handling of Audit issues. 7.6 Procurement issues 127. At times the procurement processes took longer than expected primarily as the concurrence was sought with the World Bank Counterpart and at other times overhaul of some of the documentations. The other delay was partly attributable to the numerous issues raised by the Tender Committee that needed addressing before implementation was done. 7.6.1Project staff 128. The project was operating as a unit within the Bureau and its function was somehow independent. This created a gap when all TSU staff left before closure of the project, 34 leaving the committee constituted to close the project without someone without project memory. 7.6.2 Outstanding bills 129. Kenya National Bureau of statistics (KNBS) is currently holding outstanding Bills of Ksh 60 Million being services contracted during the stipulated period but which remain unpaid. 7.7 Conclusion 130. The project was very useful to National Statistical System and there is need to carry on with these activities to ensure quality, timely and reliable statistics are produced for the country. (b) Cofinanciers UK Department for International Development (DFID) 131. The UK provided a £6.5 million grant to the statistical capacity building project (STATCAP). Of the total grant, £3.9 million was disbursed between 2004 and 2007, providing flexible funding to the STATCAP priority activities prior to the World Bank credit becoming effective. Some examples of the activities supported in the early phases of the STATCAP include upgrading computers, printers and photocopying equipment for KNBS’s library, supporting the production of the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS), the first survey in Kenya on people with disabilities, and poverty research using the KIHBS data. Since 2007, DFID’s funding has been used to provide more strategic financing of the STATCAP, including supporting the communications and publicity of the 2009 Census and sponsoring an in-country statistician hosted by the World Bank to work on STATCAP with KNBS. 132. DFID, with the World Bank, has met regularly with officials in KNBS and the MDAs supported by the STATCAP to discuss progress of the project, and attended formal mission reviews where KNBS’s board and the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Planning have participated. It has carried out its own independent annual reviews of the STATCAP against a monitoring framework including indicators developed for the project. 133. In September 2012, DFID conducted a project completion review of the STATCAP having disbursed the full grant [Ref]. The review rated the STATCAP as moderately not meeting expectations, and concluded that the STATCAP had made significant progress in institutional reform, noting the rebranding of KNBS from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the transfer of staff to KNBS terms and conditions, but progress with the KNBS website as a portal for accessing data was mixed, as was progress with the production of key statistical surveys and activities. Regarding data access, the review added that “the website was meant to provide a platform to access many national statistics on-line, in useable and re-useable formats. While PDF versions of documents can be downloaded from 35 KNBS, access to useable micro-data remains limited and the KNBS’s dissemination framework is largely viewed as functioning poorly by users�. 134. On statistical survey production, the review noted that the lateness of completing NASSEP V and the knock-on effects of this on other key surveys, such as the DHS and KAIS, which had affected the performance of the project in the latter stages. This had been attributed to weak procurement and financial systems, uncertainty around the date of elections which affected planning, and a weakening counterpart relationship. 135. Despite the project moderately not meeting expectations, DFID’s review judged it to have represented value for money (VfM) against the criteria of economy, efficiency and effectiveness. This judgment was based on competitive unit costs for training, and technical assistance, the efficiency with which these activities had benefited staff in statistical analysis and reporting, and the effectiveness with which key statistical products, such as the CPI and the Census data were being used in Government policy making. 136. In concluding, DFID highlighted that funding was the main obstacle to modernizing the national statistical system, and improving economic statistics. DFID cautioned that the gains made by the project in the last 8 years could be reversed without adequate and sustainable financing from the Government of Kenya, particularly to support national statistics with devolved governments as envisaged by Kenya’s Constitution. (c) Other partners and stakeholders Not Applicable. 36 Annex 1: Project Costs and Financing (a) Project Cost by Component (in US$ Million equivalent) Actual/Latest Appraisal Estimate Percentage of Components Estimate (US$ million) Appraisal (US$ million) Total Baseline Cost 0.00 0.00 Physical Contingencies 0.00 0.00 0.00 Price Contingencies 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Project Costs 0.00 0.00 Front-end fee PPF 0.00 0.00 .00 Front-end fee IBRD 0.00 0.00 .00 Total Financing Required 0.00 0.00 (b) Financing Appraisal Actual/Latest Type of Percentage of Source of Funds Estimate Estimate Cofinancing Appraisal (US$ million) (USD million) Borrower 3 International Development Association 20.50 (IDA) 37 Annex 2: Outputs by Component Component/Outputs Realized Component A: Organizational Development and Governance (US$0.45 million) 137. Institutional reform: the process of transforming CBS into KNBS has been completed. Following the Statistical Act of 2006, KNBS is now a semi-autonomous agency with a fully functional Board of Directors, a Director General, and six senior Directors. 138. ISO Certification: KNBS is currently undergoing an ISO certification, which is expected to be completed in 2013. 139. New functions in KNBS: Unlike CBS, which was a department in MPND, KNBS has now established its own internal financial management, procurement, and audit functions, although procurement challenges persist (in obtaining competitive goods and services). 140. Coordination of the NSS. Three SWGs have been established for coordination among various sectors (real, social, financial, and governance). Component B: Human Resource Development (US$3.3 million) 141. Links between training and data production. The training courses imparted have strengthened staff skills; and the benefits are seen in the increased volume of and the quality of statistics produced, faster production times, and better analysis of data. Component C: Development of Statistical Infrastructure (US$1.5 million) 142. Building of statistical infrastructure. KNBS has made good progress in updating the infrastructure that governs national accounts. This process, to be based on SNA 2008, will be completed in 2013—making Kenya to be among the first in Africa to adopt this latest version of the computational approach. In addition, data collection for the producer price index (PPI) is currently underway and the first PPI is expected to be launched early in 2013. Lastly, project has supported the establishment of the new master sampling frame for household-based surveys, NASSEP V. The new sampling frame will provide the basis for surveys until the next population and housing census in 2019. 143. Technical assistance. The project supported the development of a Statistical Compendium, and the Data Access and Dissemination Policy, which is available on KNBS's website. 38 Component D: Data Development (US$6.0 million) 144. Production of economic statistics. In general, there has been impressive progress in improving economic statistics in Kenya, the improvement of compilation of the national accounts aggregates and CPI series, including undertaking the following surveys:  Developing the integrated database for the economic department in the Central Bank of Kenya (2007)  Agricultural statistics situation analysis  Survey of apartments, villas and cottages (2010)  Census of Industrial Production (2010)  Foreign direct investment survey (2010)  Manpower survey (2011)  Informal cross-border survey (2011)  Integrated services survey (2011-12) 145. Production of social statistics. The project also supported the development of social statistics, including the production of the following surveys:  The disability survey (2008)  Independent monitoring of the population and housing census (2009)  Publicity and advocacy population and housing survey (2009) 146. Administrative statistics. There has also been robust progress in the compilation of statistics from administrative records across the supported 15 line ministries. Some sectors now produce data for the first time and feedback from a number of sectors indicate that the growing production of data has been accompanied by increases in both use and additional demand. For example, since 2011 the security and justice sector now have a chapter on ‘Governance’ statistics in the Economic Survey. 147. Agricultural statistics. One area of the national accounts that require future attention is agricultural statistics. In Kenya, agriculture accounts for approximately 25 percent of GDP Kenya, and a planned agricultural census could not be funded under STATCAP due to the lack of additional funding from other counterparts. However, KNBS is in the process of undertaking an agricultural study to improve the basis for agricultural statistics. The planned symposium for agricultural statistics was not held, however, there is still need to determine and agree on the most appropriate way forward for agricultural statistics in Kenya, particularly given funding constraints and newly developed methods for data collection, including 'sample censuses' and combining agricultural data collection with other household surveys. Recently completed, study tours to Uganda and Tanzania, are expected to provide valuable input and recommendations into the discussion. 148. KIHBS II. At the beginning of the STATCAP project, it was agreed to have KIHBS carried out every five to six years to provide critical data on poverty and costs of living for use by policy makers in private and public sectors. However, because of delays in producing the NASSEP V sampling frames me and uncertainty about the election date, the 39 next KIHBS is scheduled to take place soon after the 2013 elections. There has been some progress in developing the survey plan, however, further preparations for this important survey needs to commence as soon as possible, including establishing a joint Government/donor survey committee to assist in the preparation arrangements as well as mobilization of financial resources. 149. User access to data. Despite impressive progress in survey production, access to data has only improved marginally since the project started. The pre-project pattern of hard-copy launch has been maintained with the only exceptions of the monthly consumer price index and the quarterly GDP online releases. Key statistical products, such as the Census reports, the Economic Survey, and Statistical Abstract are not available online. The agreed Quarterly Statistical Digest has not yet been re-launched. Of the other surveys produced, none are available online for easy user access and download. Concerns about financial losses from a reduction in the sale of printed copies seem unfounded, as the current sale of printed reports is very modest. Paradoxically, a number of produced surveys are readily available on the websites of many of KNBS' partners, where the anonymized micro data from the previous two censuses can be downloaded, the DHS website, where the Kenya DHS surveys that can be downloaded, and the Bank, where a number of KNBS datasets can be downloaded. Availing this data on KNBS' own website would therefore be an easy win for KNBS and provide good access for Kenyan users who may not be aware of the other resources. It would also help to transform KNBS' current imagine from largely being seen as 'holding on to data' to an open and modern data producer that lives up to its own logo of keeping Kenyans informed. 150. Data access. However, there has been recent progress in access to information, both with the launch of the Kenya Open Data Initiative, and the revival of KenInfo. The Kenya Open Data Initiative, which has put Kenya on the forefront of the worldwide open data initiative, was launched in July 2011 with support from KNBS, including the provision of key datasets, such as the 2009 Census data tables. The Open Data Initiative has also changed the nature of Government data being foremost a public good. Although, in recent months there has been a scarcity in the upload of new datasets, despite KNBS staff receiving training in data upload funded by the STATCAP project. KenInfo has registered some progress, with the recent upload of the 2010 MTP indicators. The 2011 indicators have been available since approximately October 2011 and these indicators could easily have been uploaded in a very short period of time. 151. Data sharing. There are weak links between KNBS and line ministries in terms of regularly availing statistics needed to monitor and evaluate targets and other indicators outlined in the Government programs and projects, including the MTP indicators. This is not only because of the process of coordination across the national statistical system commenced recently, but also a reflection of the low capacity for managing for development results (MfDR) across GOK. Component E: Physical Infrastructure and Equipment (US$5.1 million) 152. Building physical infrastructure. Physical infrastructure is an important determinant of capacity to produce statistics for any statistical organization. This component of the 40 project was therefore important. The project provided extensive support to build physical infrastructure in KNBS and across the national statistics system although serious and consistent procurement challenges delayed and sometimes prevented upgrade and transition to improved data production regimes. The inability to procure CAPI devices for the new NASSEP V master sample frame is an example. One particular example of the significance of physical infrastructure in data production stands out. The server provided to improve the external trade statistics produced by KRA helped to reduce production time from approximately six weeks to two weeks. Component F: Project Management (US$3.93 million) 153. Project management has in general showed mixed performance. The initial design for the project intended the TSU to support capacity development in KNBS, particularly in the areas of financial management, procurement, and M&E, and eventually a mainstreaming of the TSU into KNBS. Because of the many project management challenges in the TSU, this transition has not taken place. Furthermore, whereas there has been good progress on ensuring results focus in the work plans and general coordination of sector working groups, the procurement and financial management issues that were identified early in the project’s life have persisted and never been fully resolved. KNBS will need to establish how some of the functions currently undertaken by the TSU unit will be taken over by KNBS once the project ends. 154. Financial management. Following the comprehensive in-depth FM review that was carried out from October 2011 to March 2012, a concise desk review of the STATCAP project was carried out on June4, 2012. 155. Cashbook and IFR discrepancy. The issues that were identified as part of the recent in-depth review included poor record keeping and outstanding Kenya National Audit Office qualifications. The review also identified a discrepancy of KSH168m (approximately US$2 million) between the project cashbooks and the project Interim Financial Reports (IFR) submitted to the Bank. Although the project is SOE (statement of expense) based, the issue remains to be resolved. 156. Audit reports and qualifications. The FM review found that there are no outstanding audit reports as the audit report for 30 June 2011 was submitted to the Bank within 6 months after financial year-end as stipulated in the Financing Agreement. However, the auditor issued a qualified opinion on the Financial Statements on a number of grounds. In the audit report acknowledgement letter, sent to the project by the TTL, the project had been asked to address the audit qualification issues and submit a clearance letter from KENAO by end of February 2012. The clearance letter is outstanding to date. The STATCAP project accountant indicated during the mission that they addressed the issues and were to invite KENAO to review and issue a clearance certificate. 41 Annex 3: Economic and Financial Analysis 157. The economic benefits of the project are expected to derive from three main sources. First, improvements in the efficiency of statistical operations and agencies to result in broader coverage and higher-quality data. Second, better data to enhance the potential for evidence-based decision making, at policy, program and project levels. Third, the project to help address the significant costs of poor decisions made on the basis of missing or inaccurate data. 158. The project is not amenable to a financial analysis because national statistical offices have very limited opportunities to recover costs, apart from selling compendiums of data. National statistics are generally considered public goods and are generally financed from Government revenue. Therefore, only marginal financial returns are expected from this project. However, indirectly, the project is expected to promote improved allocation of resources, enhanced social monitoring of the impact of Government spending and reduction in revenue leakages by providing more accurate information on economic activity to the public at large, and the tax authorities in particular. 42 Annex 4: Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes (a) Task Team members Responsibility/ Names Title Unit Specialty Lending Lucas Ojiambo Consultant AFTP2 Technical guidance Gabriel Demombynes Senior Economist EASPV TTL Philip Brynnum Jespersen In-Country Statistician DECDG Co-TTL Wolfgang Fengler Lead Economist AFTP2 Technical guidance Joel Monyori Procurement Specialist AFTPE Procurement support Financial management Josephine Ngigi Financial Management Specialist AFTME oversight and support Anne Khatimba Team Assistant AFTP2 Team support Financial management Henry Amuguni Senior Financial Management Specialist AFTME support Supervision/ICR (b) Staff Time and Cost Staff Time and Cost (Bank Budget Only) Stage of Project Cycle USD Thousands (including No. of staff weeks travel and consultant costs) Lending Total: 290 725,193.00 Supervision/ICR Total: 5 20,725.00 43 Annex 5: Bank STATCAP Program Eligibility Criteria  The preparation of a national statistical strategic plan. This would typically be demonstrated by the existence of an approved statistical master plan, prepared and owned by the country with broad stakeholder involvement, and including some financing from the national budget. The plan should include the normal cycle of statistical operations, such as a household-based and enterprise-based survey programs, and population and other censuses.  National commitment and leadership to have a strengthened statistical system and use its outcomes to better design and manage policies, programs and resource allocation.  Willingness to comply with good statistical practice. Countries will be eligible if they subscribe to the IMF General Data Dissemination System, or are committed to adopting the Special Data Dissemination Standard.  Participation in global development and monitoring activities. Countries need to demonstrate the willingness to use of statistical data in developing and monitoring Poverty Reduction Strategies or the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals, as an indicator of government commitment to use statistical information for making policy decisions and monitoring.  Use of sustainable implementation arrangements. An eligible country will need to put in place acceptable management, financial, procurement and regulatory arrangements for Project implementation and implementation of the strategic plan. 44 Annex 6: Detailed Overview of Support to Ministries, Departments, and Agencies Ministry, Support received from Agreed indicators for the Department, Results of STATCAP support STATCAP Quarterly Statistical Digest Agency  Printing reports, including  All progress backlogged reports 1. Immunization of children (0- Annual Health Status cleared (except 2010) 1) both number and share. Reports (2005-07), Sector  Baseline for data quality established Ministry of (backlog) Health  Rapid assessment of Health facilities  Officers trained in databases and HMIS  Computer equipment  Gender disaggregated data is now 1. No and percent of women in Ministry of  Server provided collected routinely the public sector Gender and  Training – statistics, sex 2. No and percent of women in disaggregated data, senior positions Social Computer Application to 3. No and percent of women in Development Data Management political positions  Consultancy on data needs  Increased data access via the 1. Data for major crops  Training on Data website that was developed 2. Food prices (production) Management, SPSS, Oracle, www2.kilimo.go.ke Ministry of Project Management and  Improved data quality via the data Agriculture Research Methodologies validation methods adopted  Computers, Laptops,  Production figures are now printers, Server and available on a monthly basis  Workstations  Computers, UPS, printers,  Reduction in data/report production 1. Number of new convictions workstations time (from days to days?) 2. No of incarcerated prisoners  Training – in GIS, SPSS,  Monthly/daily data reports on (age, sex, sentence, crime Kenya Prisons MS Office, record prisoners category) Service management system, Basic  Better information for allocations of Computer Skills prisoners per prison  Better information for rehabilitation programmes  Computers  Manpower survey in the field 1. Enrolment of students by Sex  Training  Increased labour market data, in Training Institutions Ministry of  Technical and financial including post-secondary enrolment 2. Number of Training Labour support to Manpower and out-turn (annual) Institution by type and survey Region  Computer equipment  Statistics department established 1. Number of cases received  Training - SPSS  Existing manuals digitized 2. Number of cases Registrar’s  Electronic case system established processed/filed by category Office and sex of offender Judiciary 3. Number of cases pending No of court cases (settled, pending  System set up as a one stop  Data available to the public more 1. Money Supply shop for all statistics in the quickly (posting monthly , formerly 2. Interest rates bank twice a year) due to electronic 3. Gross International Reserves system (production time is the 4. Credit to the Private Sector Central Bank same) 5. 91 Day Auctions and Interest of Kenya  Data archive set up rates;  Increased data access via database 6. Exchange rates with electronic version of old reports  Report backlog cleared 45 Ministry, Support received from Agreed indicators for the Department, Results of STATCAP support STATCAP Quarterly Statistical Digest Agency  Computers, printers  Database set up 1. Nature of crime by category  Training – Basic Statistics,  Increased number of indicators Computer Application to available Kenya Police data management, Report  Quality improved due to electronic Writing, GIS system  Photocopiers  Reduction in production time from  Software 20 to 15 days  Computer hardware  Backlog of probation reports cleared 1. Probation report summary  Workstations – furniture  Production time of probation reports indicators, including sex, Probation and  Training – ICT, Basic reduced from 6 months to 1 month sentence, region Statistics, Report Writing  Quality of data has improved after After Services the implementation of the data management system (from 12% to 80% of required information)  Printing of Annual  Production time for trade statistics 1. Direct imports Trade Reports reduced from 8 weeks to 1.5 weeks 2. Trade balance table Kenya Revenue  Computers, Server  Backlog cleared for (2004-2008?) 3. Imports for home Use Authority  Training – trade  Informal Cross border survey team statistics, MS Access about to go to the field  Computers, Printers,  Timely production and delivery of  Number of New registrations laptops, Server, data; From 30% to about 80%. by Sex and County Photocopying  Change in attitude in appreciation of  Number of replacements by Machine, data in NRB. sex and County; Workstations.  Working on the quality of the data.  Number of changes by reason National  Training in SPSS, MS and sex. Registration Access, Computer Bureau Application to Data Management, Project management, Report Writing and Monitoring and Evaluation  Computers and UPS  Reduction in data preparation time, 1. Birth/death by province  Training on SPSS, quality is up 2. Birth/death by place of Project M&E, Senior  Improving services to users of occurrence Civil management course statistics, including MoH, CDC, 3. Birth by age of mother and Registration  Community KIPPRA and KNBS, marital status Bureau mobilisation in 7  Report preparation time reduced districts (large  Analysis of data improved, by sex, Agreed to present findings population, low by place of birth/death both in tables and in registration rates) graphs/figures where helpful  Training in report  Data received from the districts have 1. Quarterly enrolment by writing, SPSS, increase County Strategic management  More comprehensive reports from 2. Quarterly enrolment by sex Ministry of  Review of data decentralised levels 3. No of teachers Education collection instruments  Ongoing work to review data 4. No of classrooms  Development of data collection systems collection and  Three sets of data received at HQ statistical manuals per year 46 Annex 7: List of Supporting Documents A. Project Documents - PAD for STATCAP (February 7, 2007). Report No: 42453-KE - Credit Agreement for STATCAP - ISRs (2008-2012) and AMs (various years, 2008-12) B. Bank Guidelines and Procedures - OPCS ICR Guidelines, August 2006. Updated (October 2011) C. LIST OF PERSONS INTERVIEWED (Field Mission to Nairobi, December 2-13, 2012) Government of Kenya:  Zachary MwangiChege, Acting Director, KNBS  Monyoncho Maina, Technical Manager, KNBS  James Gatungu, Director, Production and Statistics Directorate, KNBS  Simon Gaitho, KNBS  Isaac K. Ndegwa, KNBS  Collins Omondi, KNBS  James K. Maru, MOL  Alex Mwaniki, MOA  Lissel I. Mogaka, MGC&SD  TruphosaOtwala, MGC&SD  Gladys Echesa, MOH  Wambua Willy, CRD  Isaac Kiprop, KRA  Michael Gitau, KNBS  David M. Mboni, Project Manager, STATCAP (2007-12)  Angeline C.C. Limo, CBK  Stanley Mwangi, Probation  Immaculate K. Ndetei, NRB  Joseph Kaburu, Prisons  Astiba Martin, Judiciary  Stephen Okere, Kenya Police External Development Partners  Michael Morris, Regional Statistics Advisor, Kenya and Somalia, DFID World Bank  Gabriel Demombynes, Senior Economist and co-TTL  Philip B. Jespersen, In-Country Statistician, DECDG 47 48