Wissam Harake and Christos Kostopoulos | April 6, 2018 Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND REFORMS A World Bank Group Document April 6, 2018 Document of the World Bank TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv ABSTRACT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v I.. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENT .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 A.. The Physical Deficit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 B.. Lebanon’s Capital Investment Plan and Sector Challenges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 C.. Assessment Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 D.. Results in Aggregation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 E.. CIP Enablers.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 F.. Maximizing Finance for Lebanon’s CIP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 G.. A Growth Dividend. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 II..ELECTRICITY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 A.. General Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 B..Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 C.. Reform Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 III.. WATER AND WASTEWATER. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 A.. General Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 B.. Assessment of Water Establishments.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 C.. Reform Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 D.. Projects Ratings and Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 IV..TRANSPORT.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 A.. General Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 B.. The Impact on the Socio-Economy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 C.. Feasibility Assessment and Readiness.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 D.. Reform Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon V.. SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 A.. General Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 B..Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 C.. Reform Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 VI..TELECOMMUNICATIONS.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 A.. General Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 B.. Comments on projects 1-8.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 C.. Complementary Policy Interventions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 VII.. TOURISM & HERITAGE, CREATIVITY & KNOWLEDGE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 A..Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 B.. Economic Relevance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 C.. Government Response in the CIP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 D.. Sector Reforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 VIII..INDUSTRY.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 ii A.. General Comments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 B.. Ensuring Success.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 C.. Industrial Parks and SEZs in Lebanon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 D.. CIP Industrial Parks and TSEZ. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Annex A. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Annex B. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: CIP allocation of costs by sector.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Figure 2: Share of non-national CIP investment cost by governorate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Figure 3: CIP allocation of Cycles – WBG. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 4: CIP allocation of Cycles – GoL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 5: CIP allocation of costs by sector across Cycles – WBG. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 6: CIP allocation of costs by sector across Cycles – GoL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Figure 7: CIP private financing in all CIP Cycles.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Figure 8: CIP private financing in Cycle 1... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Figure 9: CIP private financing in Cycle 2.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Figure 10: Sector share of projects financed completely by the private sector in all CIP Cycles.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 11: Sector share of projects financed completely by the private sector in Cycle 1.. . . . . 17 Figure 12: Infrastructure project finance volume in selected countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Figure 13: Infrastructure project finance debt volume, average 2013-2017, (% of GDP). . . . . . . 19 Figure 14: Debt profiles for varying scenarios of CIP growth dividend for real GDP.. . . . . . . . . . 21 LIST OF BOXES Box 1: Gender and youth in the CIP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Percentage of projects in the sector which meet the strategic criteria.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Table 2. Percentage of projects in the sector which meet the growth, employment and inclusion criteria.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Table 3. Percentage of projects in the sector which meet the feasibility criteria... . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Table 4: A summary list of suggested structural reforms for the CIP... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Table 5. Electricity Projects.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Table 6: Summary of CIP projects per water authority.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Table 7: Water Supply Networks Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Table 8: Water Supply Dams Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Table 9: Sanitation Networks Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Table 10: Waste Water Treatment Plants Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Table 11: Sanitation System Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Table 12. Export/Import Costs (US$/ per container) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Table 13: Transportation Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Table 14: Solid Waste Management Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Table 15: Telecommunications Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Table 16: Cultural Heritage/ Tourism Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Table 17: Summary of feature for Industrial Parks and SEZs’ infrastructure... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70  Table 18: Special Economic Zones Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 iii Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Acknowledgements This document was led by Wissam Harake (Senior Economist, IBRD) and Christos Kostopoulos (Lead Economist, IBRD), with a core team comprising of: Global Practice / CCSA / Unit Team members Energy Sameh Mobarak Environment and Natural Resources Frank Van Woerden Finance Competitiveness and Innovation Arnaud Dornel; Haocong Ren Governance Paul Welton; Sepehr Fotovat Macro, Trade and Investment Wissam Harake; Christos Kostopoulos; Naji Abou Hamde Transport Ziad Nakat Treasury Concepcion Aisa; Jong Woo Nam ICT Carlo Rossotto; Marolla Haddad Urban, Rural, and Social Development Guido Licciardi; Sateh Chafic El-Arnaout Water and Sanitation Amal Talbi; Sally Zgheib The core team worked closely with the Program Leaders (Ibrahim Dajani, Peter Mousley and Haneen Sayed), Mona Ziade (Communications Officer, IBRD), Mouna Couzi (Country Operations Officer), Saad Sabra (Senior Country Officer, IFC) and Layali Abdeen (Senior Underwriter, MIGA). It relied substantially on sector-specific expertise from across the World Bank Group’s units, Global Practices (GPs) and Cross Cutting Solutions Areas (CCSAs). The team is also grateful to the peer reviewers Ferhat Esen (Senior Energy Specialist) and Bledi Celiku (Economist, MTI) for their insightful and constructive comments. The work was carried out under the supervision of Saroj Kumar Jha (Country Director) and Kevin Carey (Practice Manager) who provided continuous guidance, support, and comments throughout the process. The preparation of the report greatly benefited from the close collaboration and strong Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon engagement of the Government of Lebanon. Valuable contributions were provided by representatives of the Prime Minister’s Office, the Council of Development and Reconstruction, The Higher Council of Privatization, OGERO, the Ministry of Energy and Water, and Dar El Handassah. iv Abstract The quality of Lebanon’s infrastructure is amongst the poorest regionally and globally. In fact, out of 137 countries, Lebanon ranks 130 in quality of overall infrastructure.1 This has been induced by low public spending on infrastructure, a consequence of the county’s debt burden as well as the long- term absence of a budget. The Capital Investment Plan (CIP) can be an effective tool to help reinforce Lebanon’s dilapidated infrastructure, abetting a boost in economic growth. The Government of Lebanon has requested from the World Bank an assessment of the CIP. This paper presents an assessment for the projects in the CIP by the World Bank Group, which has had a long-term engagement with Lebanon, both sectorally and cross-sectorally. The assessment was undertaken on the basis of the listing provided in the Government’s own Capital Investment Plan document, as well as other ad hoc information. Each project in the CIP requires an independent appraisal as per highest standards. In addition, a sustainable macro-fiscal framework and debt strategy are essential for a successful implementation of the CIP. The IMF is taking the lead on a macro-fiscal assessment for the CIP, which was presented at the Paris conference. The Assessment generally finds that the choice of sectors is appropriate for a CIP for Lebanon, and that many of the listed projects are relevant, indeed, some are critical, to help alleviate infrastructural bottlenecks. Nonetheless, horizontal and vertical reforms, including the reduction of fiscal impact, are essential to enable the CIP and make the projects sustainable and attractive to investors. This document suggests a list of indicative reforms. It does not, however, address crippling barriers in project implementation in infrastructure, which have resulted in long delays and significant additional costs.  v 1 Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Index 2017-2018. I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENT A. The Physical Deficit subscriptions at 104.2 Further, low public investment in these sectors has caused capacity to lag behind demand, leading to 1. A central pillar in the social contract a reduction in potential economic growth between Citizen and State is the delivery and an overall deterioration in living of basic public services. In Lebanon, there conditions. are significant deficiencies in key basic services, including, electricity, water supply, sanitation, transport, waste management, telecommunications and others. These B. Lebanon’s Capital services are not only essential for growth of productivity and income, but also for Investment Plan and ensuring a basic level of living standard for residents. When effectively provided, Sector Challenges they can have a positive impact on income equality, allowing low income groups 4. The Capital Investment Plan (CIP) access to better and more productive includes over 280 infrastructural opportunities. Their provision also projects, divided between energy, enhances health and education outcomes, transport, water, wastewater, solid waste thus improving human capital—a critical treatment, telecommunications, special driver of growth in high middle-income economic zones and culture and tourism. economies such as Lebanon. Instead, the Geographically, the CIP covers the whole of Lebanese typically reach out to informal, Lebanon, with some projects designated as and sometimes even legally questionable, national and others as local—North, Beirut providers and mechanisms to supplant and Mount Lebanon, South and the Bekaa these deficiencies. areas. Sectorally, the largest investment share is allotted to the transportation, 2. The lack of fiscal space combined with amounting to 32 percent of the total CIP, missing official budgets from 2005 to 2016 of which 8 percent are allocated to land resulted in a sharp fall in public spending expropriation (Figure 1). Almost quarter on infrastructural projects. Gross public of the investments are reserved for the debt is estimated at around 153 percent energy sector, while water and wastewater of GDP by end-2017, with only Japan and Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon are assigned 22 percent and 12 percent, Greece higher globally. Debt service for respectively. the government reaches about 10 percent of GDP annually, consuming about half 5. Around half of the total investments are of domestic revenues. As a result, the earmarked for “national” projects, with government suffers from a long term and the rest allocated locally. National projects sizable fiscal deficit, which in 2016 (the aim at benefiting the entire population, latest full year actual data) registered such as the majority of investments in the 9.6 percent of GDP. The lack of fiscal energy and transportation sectors as well space has translated into low government as the telecommunications or the cultural capital expenditures, which, at an average sectors. These projects, amounting to a of around 1.5 percent of GDP since the total of US$ 10,306 million, are therefore beginning of the millennium, is significantly not assigned to specific governorates. below comparator countries. Of the locally designated investments in the CIP, 23 percent are located in Mount 3. As a result, the country’s infrastructure Lebanon, followed by the North governorate network and quality have deteriorated, (17 percent) and Nabatiye (15 percent) particularly electricity, water supply, (Figure 2). 2 waste management and transport— services important for the population’s well-being. In fact, out of 137 countries, Lebanon ranks 130 in quality of overall infrastructure, with quality of electricity supply at 134, quality of roads at 120 and quality of mobile-cellular telephone 2 Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Index 2017-2018. ELECTRICITY Figure 1: CIP allocation of costs by sector 6. Power supply remains inconsistent for 92 Solid Waste Management Cultural percent of households, who need to be 6% 1% Industry linked to private generators. Despite its Telecom 0% large and subsidized budget, Electricité du 3% Liban (EdL), the national utility company, is Land Exp. Energy both inefficient and insufficient, generating (Transport) 24% 8% in 2017 an average capacity of 2,066 MW, compared to a peak demand of 3,400 MW.3 This results in systematic and long daily blackouts, causing the extensive use of back-up private generators at a cost that is three times the level of EdL tariffs. Moreover, whereas only about half of total electricity production costs are recoverable, Water Transport 19% electricity tariffs have remained unchanged 24% since 1996 (when the price of oil was US$ 23 per barrel). Wastewater Land Exp. (Water) 12% 3% 7. Recent World Bank surveys also indicated Source: WB staff assessment. that availability of reliable electricity in Lebanon is the second biggest obstacle to private sector growth, after political instability. This is particularly significant Figure 2: Share of non-national CIP because substantial investments, primarily investment cost by governorate from the private sector, are needed along the entire energy value chain, from upstream Baalbek - Hermel fuel supply and mid-stream generation and 8% Beirut transmission to downstream distribution Bekaa 12% networks and retail operations, to address 5% Mount the sector’s historic challenges. Lebanon Nabatiye 23% 15% 8. The CIP contains 17 separately identified investment projects in the power sector for a total of US$ 5,592 million, to be implemented over three cycles covering Introduction and Summary of Assessment the period 2018-2030. To accommodate increased capacity, there will also be a need for transmission investments to absorb the capacity and to ensure stability South of the network. 12% North 9. The objective of the electricity investments Akkar 17% is to increase power supply to 24/7 over 8% the medium term. Toward that objective, Source: WB staff assessment. electricity sector reforms should be adopted as a top priority. This includes private sector participation in both generation and distribution, necessitated by a lack of 3 fiscal space, as well as the introduction of renewable energy. With transmission losses estimated at 40-50 percent, additional capacity would be wasted without a resolution to this inefficiency. 3 Source: Government of Lebanon. Still, additional generation alone is the social contract on water service. Over insufficient; absent other adjustments, an the years, citizens need for additional water expansion of power supply will lead to a rise sources and sanitation has increased due to in government transfers to EdL, resulting in population growth, economic development, a widening of the fiscal deficit. As such, urban expansion, supply shortages and the it is necessary to introduce a multi-year inability of public water entities to deliver electricity tariff cost-recovery plan for EdL required volumes and quality of service in over a medium-term transition period. water supply and sanitation. 10. Importantly, reforms should also address the high cost of power generation in Lebanon, much of which is related to the TRANSPORT use of fuel oil as an input. Instead, power stations in Lebanon can run on natural 13. Lebanon’s endemic traffic congestion gas, which is much less expensive, more problem is estimated to cost the economy efficient and less environmentally polluting. between 5 and 10 percent of GDP annually. This however requires the development of Road transport is by far the most dominant new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) importing form of transport in Lebanon for passengers, and supply infrastructure facilities, freight and commerce, with about 1.2 which should be consistent with plans to million vehicles in a country of only 4.5 explore and exploit off-shore domestic gas million people. Traffic congestion and high resources. transport costs are having huge detrimental effects on the development of lagging regions and are forcing the population to WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION move closer to employment and services in Beirut. This dynamic has the dual effect of exacerbating congestion in Beirut and 11. Notwithstanding Lebanon’s relatively high increasing poverty in the regions. per capita water endowment, inadequate management of and investment in the 14. The CIP contains 24 separately identified sector are leading to chronic supply investment projects in the transport shortages. There is a seasonal mismatch sector for a total of US$ 7,381 million, Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon between water supply (at its peak in the implemented over three c ycle s rainy winter) and demand (peaking in covering the period 2018-2030. T he the hot, dry summer months). One of the bulk of the transport investments are principal factors that is exacerbating this to complete Lebanon’s highways, while seasonal water imbalance is the very low the remaining investments are focused water storage capacity (6 percent of total on the development of strategic assets. resources, compared to the MENA average The latter include the expansion of Tripoli of 85 percent). As a result, water supply Port to become an important gateway to services are below the levels expected in Syria and Iraq, the construction of the a middle-income country. If no action is first modern railway linking Tripoli port to taken, including in water governance to Syria, the introduction of a reliable public improve efficiency and manage demand, transport network and bus rapid transit the country will continue to depend in the (BRT) lines, and the expansion of Beirut long-run on mined groundwater. Water airport. Regional and smaller investments storage capacity should expand in order represent a much smaller share and are to boost resilience to natural (i.e. drought) primarily focused on the rehabilitation of and man-made (i.e. refugees) shocks. the road network. 4 12. The Capital Investment Plan (CIP) includes 124 water supply projects and 82 wastewater projects, covering the whole SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT of Lebanon: North, Beirut and Mount Lebanon, South and the Bekaa areas. The 15. Solid waste disposal is a persistent and objective on water supply is to reach 24/7, critical issue in Lebanon. Before the Syrian which contributes to restoring or maintaining crisis, only 53 percent of municipal solid waste was disposed of in the country’s Lebanon’s broadband and digital platform only two sanitary landfills: Naameh and infrastructure, providing faster internet Zahlé. The remaining was disposed of in and cloud based services to government, unsanitary landfills and hundreds of open businesses and consumers in Lebanon. dumps, which is a main source of pollution to air, watersheds and coastal zones. In 19. In embracing this much-needed reform, the summer of 2015, a visually powerful Lebanon will need to pay attention to the garbage crisis that left piles of it uncollected important factors, including: on the streets of Lebanon galvanized • accounting for the fiscal implications; sizable popular demonstrations. • managing risks and opportunities to make sure that the benefits of 16. The CIP contains one entry for a single broadband reach to different regions cycle investment program in the solid and income and social groups; and waste sector: “Solid Waste Management • avoiding the emergence of oligopolies to cover all Lebanon including collection, in the sector sorting, treatment and landfill sites” for a total of US$ 1,400 million. Further discussions identified the following centralized waste treatment investments: INDUSTRY (i) three Waste to Energy (WtE) facilities in the urbanized coastal regions (Beirut, the 20. Lebanon’s industrial sector has lagged, north around Tripoli and South Lebanon both on regional and global comparative around Saida/Zahrani), and (ii) more basis (WB, 2016).4 Consequences include, traditional schemes based on composting inadequate high-skill job creation and the and sanitary landfilling for the more rural exacerbation of macro-fiscal imbalances. parts of Lebanon in the north Akkar area One possibility to strengthen the industrial and for the Bekaa valley. The WtE schemes sector is via spatial industrial policies, would require three times US$ 375 million most notably, industrial parks and special and the two rural schemes together around economic zones (SEZs), which support $US 175 million. In addition, roughly US$ increased investment and competitiveness 100 million would be required to cleanup in the industrial sector. The CIP presents hundreds of illegal dumpsites in Lebanon, two such projects. The first, led by Ministry and for some, the rehabilitation into of Industry (MoI), includes the second sanitary landfills. phase for 3 industrial parks in Alkaa, Baalbek and Terbol, while the second is the Tripoli Special Economic Zone (TSEZ). TELECOMMUNICATIONS 21. The proposed industrial parks aim to Introduction and Summary of Assessment improve the competitiveness of Lebanon’s 17. Lebanon has a unique opportunity to industries via (i) the provision of critical develop a new comprehensive policy to infrastructure; and (ii) in recognition that address the various bottlenecks affecting land prices are a principal impediment to the growth and development of broadband competitiveness of industry in Lebanon, infrastructure and services. The main long-term leasing of municipal lands at opportunity is to leverage on Lebanon’s very low prices to industries in the zone. education and skill level, by providing However, the authorities can help assure modern broadband infrastructure and success by reinforcing the role of the ICT applications. This would boost the private sector in order to ensure that these competitiveness of the service sector, and locations will attract new businesses and create jobs and income opportunities for investment. 5 the skilled workers. 22. The TSEZ is located adjacent to the Tripoli 18. The CIP contains 8 separately identified port, imparting a critical advantage. In investment projects in the telecoms sector fact, it is expected to go beyond the trading for a total of US$ 700 million, implemented and logistics role and develop an industrial over Cycle 1 covering the period 2018- 2021. The objective is to modernize 4 World Bank (2016), Lebanon Economic Monitor: A GeoEconomy of Risks and Rewards, Spring 2016. park to attract foreign and domestic context, and fluctuations in the sector, investments on manufacturing and related tourism remained a strong employment activities. A central caveat is in regard generating sector, especially for low-skilled to the excessive fiscal incentives from workers; the sector accounts for 24 percent which TSEZ businesses will benefit, and of total employment in Lebanon. Before the which are enshrined by law. The potential impact of the Syrian crisis, the number of exists that TSEZ businesses will gain a visitors reached 2.5 million per year (2010). significant competitive edge over non-TSEZ Soon afterwards, numbers declined, and businesses, to the extent that the former lately, due to enhanced efforts for the enters an existing market. As a result, the stability of the country, the trend reversed incentive for businesses would be in favour back into the positive. of relocation to the zone at the expense of expansion. It is thus imperative that 25. The CIP contains 11 separately identified access to the zone is awarded to expanding investment projects in the sector businesses. Specifically, due to the for a total of US$ 264 million, to be location, the export market should be a key implemented over the Cycles 1 and 2, target, and sufficient measures/conditions covering the period 2018-2025. They are can be undertaken by the authorities to related to a larger economic sector that can ensure that access is offered to exporting be defined as High-Value Added Services, businesses. which includes Tourism & Heritage and Creativity & Knowledge. Experience to date in Lebanon has shown that supporting knowledge and leveraging heritage CULTURAL HERITAGE assets in cities improved local economic development and job creation, especially in secondary and tertiary cities in lagging 23. Tourism based on heritage assets is a regions. It also enhances the livability for traditionally strong pillar of the Lebanese local communities in an inclusive manner, economy. Lebanese cities are among the and attracts significant private sector oldest continuously inhabited areas in the investment. world. The richness of the melting pot of communities in Lebanon is one the most representative tracts of the country and Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon has historically been a driver of innovation. C. Assessment Lebanon, not accidentally, is the country where the first alphabet of the humankind Methodology was invented. Consequently, tourism in Lebanon has always been a major 26. The Government of Lebanon (GoL) has contributor to the economy. From Stone Age requested from the World Bank Group settlements to Phoenician city-states, from (WBG) an assessment of the Capital Roman temples to rock-cut hermitages, Investment Plan (CIP), which comprises from Crusader Castles to Mamluk mosques a list of over 280 projects, large and and Ottoman hammams, heritage sites small, with geographic and other limited of global significance are displayed all designations. In light of the afore- across the country reflecting ancient and mentioned physical deficit, the CIP can be modern world history. This has been widely an effective tool to help reinforce Lebanon’s recognized by the international community; dilapidated infrastructure, abetting a boost with 5 UNESCO World Heritage Sites, the in economic growth. World Bank’s long- country has the highest density of these term engagement with Lebanon affords its sites globally compared to its population. staff country context and sector insight, 6 in addition to the technical know-how, to 24. Contribution of tourism to the country GDP provide an assessment of the CIP project list. is estimated at 25 percent, which is by far above the world average of 14 percent, 27. A framework for the assessment was above any other country in the Middle designed based on four main categories: East and twice as much as a prime tourism (i) Strategic Assessment; (ii) Assessment destination like Italy (10 percent). Despite for Growth, Employment and Inclusion; (iii) elements of fragility due to the regional Feasibility Assessment; and (iv) Reform Needs Assessment. Annex A presents the increased public spending on the debt-to- Guidance Note for the Capital Investment GDP ratio over a 10-year period from 2018 Plan Assessment Framework. The Note to 2027. Lebanon can ill afford to ignore lays out the specific criteria that are used fiscal constraints and the GoL should aim and offers guidance on how to make the to have them incorporated and accounted assessment. for in the final plan. This does not only apply to government expenditures, but 28. The assessment affords a chance to review also to revenues. For the former, public- opportunities for private investment in private partnerships (PPP) are an important Lebanon. Capital investment projects are no strategy, and the recently passed PPP longer the exclusive purview of government law can be an effective vehicle. On the investment departments. Many countries revenues side, telecom revenues are not have found that the private sector provides only one of the top revenue sources for quality investments and value for money the much-indebted government, it is also in critical infrastructure areas—energy, a rare source of hard currency, noting that telecommunications, transportation etc. the foreign currency-denominated portion At the same time, investors see capital of public debt is equivalent to about 56 projects as opportunities to participate percent of GDP (end-October 2017). in critical investments of national priority with substantial international attention and possibly co-financing. However, for such opportunities to be translated to better D. Results in Aggregation (and profitable) public services, updated and stable legal and regulatory frameworks 30. The strategic assessment of CIP projects are required. reveals that the vast majority of projects are regarded as being of strategic priority 29. The IMF is taking the lead on a macro- for the relevant sector and are part of fiscal assessment for the CIP, which was an official sector strategy (Table 1). All presented at the Paris CEDRE conference. projects in the water, wastewater, solid Nonetheless, this document quantifies waste, telecommunications, cultural and the growth dividend on the real GDP that industry sectors are strategic priorities in is needed to neutralize the impact of Table 1. Percentage of projects in the sector which meet the strategic criteria. Strategic Assessment Introduction and Summary of Assessment The project is a The project will help The project will help The project belongs strategic priority for significantly reduce attract FDIs in the to an official sector the sector the cost structure in sector strategy   the sector Electricity 83* 100 83 87** Water 100 100 0 100 Wastewater 100 100 0 100 Transport 92 67 38 54 Telecommunications 100 25** 38** 0 Solid Waste 100 L 83 100 Cultural 100 82** 73*** 100 7 Industry 100 100 50**** 100 * Less than 10 percent of projects require more information to assess the statement ** 13 percent of projects require more information to assess the statement *** 18 percent of projects require more information to assess the statement **** One of the two projects requires more information to assess the statement L Not relevant Source: WB staff assessment. their relevant sectors, while most of the strategy. Telecommunication stands out projects in transportation (92 percent) as the only sector lacking an official sector and electricity (83 percent) are considered strategy. a strategic priority. In terms of strategic integration, all projects in the water, 31. The vast majority of projects in the CIP are wastewater, solid waste, cultural and expected to reduce the cost structure in the industry sectors are part of an official sector, and a good sum can attract FDIs. sector strategy. Eighty seven percent of CIP projects are expected to significantly the projects in the electricity sector are reduce the cost structure in their relevant embedded in a broader national sector sector. This is particularly the case for all strategy while 54 percent of the projects projects in electricity, water, wastewater in the transportation sector follow a sector and industry, as well as the great majority Table 2. Percentage of projects in the sector which meet the growth, employment and inclusion criteria. Assessment for Growth, Employment and Inclusion The completed project The completed project The project creates has high sustainability of contributes significantly a large or moderate   growth impact to high productivity jobs number of jobs Electricity 78* I 74 Water I I I Wastewater I I I Transport 58 0 96 Telecommunications 13** 25*** 38** Solid Waste 0 0 83 Cultural 82 55 100 Industry 100 100 100 I denotes ‘inconclusive’, as more information is required to assess the statement Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon * 22 percent of projects require more information to assess the statement ** 13 percent of projects require more information to assess the statement *** 25 percent of projects require more information to assess the statement Source: WB staff assessment. Table 3. Percentage of projects in the sector which meet the feasibility criteria. Feasibility Assessment The project is shovel ready in The implementing agency has the 0-18 months necessary capacity   Electricity 48* 9 Water I I Wastewater I I Transport 25 96 Telecommunications 50** 63*** 8 Solid Waste 50 100 Cultural 91 100 Industry 50 100 I denotes ‘inconclusive’, as more information is required to assess the statement * 26 percent of projects require more information to assess the statement ** 13 percent of projects require more information to assess the statement *** 38 percent of projects require more information to assess the statement Source: WB staff assessment. Figure 3: CIP allocation of Cycles – WBG Figure 4: CIP allocation of Cycles – GoL  Cycle 1  Cycle 1 US$ 7,818 mln. US$ 10,799 mln.  Cycle 2  Cycle 2 US$ 8,296 mln. US$ 6,454 mln. 29%  Cycle 3 25%  Cycle 3 34% US$ 6,686 mln. US$ 5,686 mln. 47% 37% 28% Source: WB staff assessment. Source: WB staff assessment. of projects in transportation and cultural million) and 28 percent (US$ 6,454 million) sectors. Furthermore, the great majority of the CIP in Cycles 1 and 2, respectively6 of projects in electricity (83 percent), solid (Figure 4). It is important to note that waste (83 percent) and the cultural sector this is a static assessment by the WBG of (73 percent) are capable of attracting FDI. when the projects are likely to commence implementation, under present conditions 32. The assessment for growth, employment and based on previous experiences. With and inclusion of CIP projects shows that in mind, the main WBG-GoL divergences that most of the projects in electricity, in Cycle 17 emanate from (i) water dams, transportation, culture and industry have with the WBG assessing US$ 930 million a highly sustainable growth impact (Table less in value of projects in Cycle 1 than 2). In addition, most completed projects in GoL does; (ii) two waste to energy facilities the industry, cultural, transportation, solid (US$ 750 million) in the solid waste sector, waste and electricity sectors are projected which are assessed by WBG in Cycle 2, to create a large or moderate number of compared to Cycle 1 by GoL; and (iii) the jobs. 1000 MW Salaata power plant (US$ 600 33. The feasibility assessment for CIP million), which is also assessed by the WBG projects shows that most of the projects for Cycle 2, compared to Cycle 1 by GoL.8 For in the cultural sector and around the last divergence, given the urgent need Introduction and Summary of Assessment half of the projects in the industry, for the additional generation capacity and telecommunications, solid waste and likely time needed to develop the Salaata electricity sectors are ready to be site, other more readily available sites implemented within a period of 18 months should be developed to ensure that at least (Table 3). Further, the implementing 1000 MW of new capacity comes online agency has the necessary capacity for all as soon as possible. Annex B presents a projects in the solid waste, cultural and WBG-GoL project by project comparison on industry sectors and most of the projects implementation cycles. in the transportation (96 percent) and 35. Sector allocation of the CIP per Cycle is telecommunications sectors (63 percent). broadly similar when comparing WBG 34. According to the WBG, almost a third of assessment with GoL’s estimations (Figure total CIP cost is assessed for Cycle 1 (US$ 5, Figure 6). WBG assessment of Cycle 1 9 7,818), and about 37 percent in Cycle 2 projects is valued at US$ 7,818 amount, (8,296)5 (Figure 3). This compares to GoL’s estimation of 47 percent (US$ 10,799 6 These figures include land expropriation costs in the amount of US$ 693 million and US$ 1,025 million in Cycles 1 and 2, respectively. 5 These figures include land expropriation costs in the 7 This also reflects the divergences in Cycle 2. amount of US$ 311 million and US$ 1,267 million in 8 A few GoL Cycle 2 projects were assessed as Cycle 1 Cycles 1 and 2, respectively. by WBG. Figure 5: CIP allocation of costs Figure 6: CIP allocation of costs by sector across Cycles – WBG by sector across Cycles – GoL Cycle 1 (7,818 US$ mln.) Cycle 1 (10,799 US$ mln.) 2% 1% 8% 13% 20% 20% 9% 6% 17% 21% 26% 27% 18% 12% Cycle 2 (8,296 US$ mln.) Cycle 2 (6,454 US$ mln.) 1% 1% 3% 1% 9% 18% 22% 14% 44% 46% 14% 11% Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 16% Cycle 3 (6,686 US$ mln.) Cycle 3 (5,686 US$ mln.) 23% 30% 37% 35% 5% 5% 35% 30% 10 Electricity Water Electricity Water Wastewater Transportation Wastewater Transportation Telecom Solid Waste Management Telecom Solid Waste Management Cultural/ tourism Industry Cultural/ tourism Industry Source: WB staff assessment. Source: WB staff assessment. of which 26 percent is assigned for the transportation sector, followed by the electricity sector (20 percent), wastewater (18 percent) and water (17 percent) sectors, telecommunications (9 percent) and solid waste (8 percent). Cycle 2 of the CIP is valued at US$ 8,296 million, 46 percent of which are transport infrastructure projects.9 E. CIP Enablers 36. Following the election of a president in 2016 and the subsequent formation of a unity government ending the prolonged political stalemate, political leaders made significant progress in 2017 by agreeing on long-standing reform measures. Crucially, on October 19, the Lebanese parliament approved the 2017 budget, making it Lebanon’s first formal budget in 12 years. Other accomplishments include, a parliamentary election law—paving the way for the parliamentary elections in May 2018, the first since 2009—the civil service salary scale adjustment and the public-private partnership law. These achievements illustrate the potential for Lebanese authorities to undertake significant reform initiatives via national political consensus. 37. It remains a fact, however, that a principal component for an effective CIP is the adoption and implementation of a structural reform program. This section suggests a menu of such reforms that would help enable the State to deliver essential Introduction and Summary of Assessment services and reinforce its infrastructure in a sustainable manner. Specifically, a list of cross-sectoral reforms is presented, which can (i) help establish solid foundations for sound investments; (ii) generate significant positive signals and good will to investors and donors; and (iii) provided there is a political will, can be completed in a relatively short period of time. This document also suggests sector-specific reforms that are needed in order to advance the sectors, making them more efficient 11 and sustainable. The latter set of reforms are explained in more detail in following sections under the corresponding sector. Table 4 below presents a summary list of suggested reforms. 9 $140 million worth of CIP projects presented by GoL were not assessed for any Cycle due to lack of information. Table 4: A summary list of suggested structural reforms for the CIP. Horizontal Reforms Vertical Reforms Electricity A fiscal framework which commits to a positive 1. A multi-year electricity tariff cost-recovery plan primary fiscal balance over the medium term, as for EdL over a transition period in tandem with part of a debt management strategy that aims to increases in generation lower the public debt-to-GDP ratio so that it is on a more sustainable trajectory 2. Implementation of approved development plan for natural gas supply Water & Wastewater Electricity tariff adjustment for new generation 1. Parliament ratification of the water code 2. By-Laws of Law 221 for autonomy status of the Water Establishments Anti-corruption Law 3. Staff recruited for O&M of water facilities Transport Expedite transition to Single Treasury Account 1. National Transport Strategy adopted 2. The review of the governance structure of the Civil Aviation sector Reform of public investment management systems 3. Identification of revenues and expenditures for sector Solid Waste Management Ratification of Public Procurement Law 1. Development of a tariff system for waste generators (households) 2. Policies to support capacity development Endorsement of the new customs strategy with local governments for sector planning and Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon operations 3. Defining feed-in tariffs for electricity from waste Passage of credit infrastructure legislative package processing facilities based on long-term economic benefits Telecommunication Regulations pertaining to the organizational and 1. Adopting a unified vision staffing structure, financing arrangements and functionality of HCP 2. Harmonized licensing regime for DSPs 3. Restructuring of the telecoms sectors A strategic plan for the management of the fiscal Industrial Zones commitments and contingent liabilities 1. TSEZ Regulatory and Licensing Regime 12 CONTAINING STRESSES FROM is all under the context of a fixed exchange rate regime that has been in effect for a THE PUBLIC DEBT couple of decades and which has become a central pillar of the Lebanese economy. The system is sustained in good part by foreign 38. Lebanon’s large macroeconomic im- currency inflows, largely in the form of balances have kept borrowing costs high deposits at commercial banks. High interest for businesses, raising cost of capital, rates are a reflection of the risk premium reducing competitiveness and inhibiting that needs to be paid in such a context to investment. Since 2004, the lending rate maintain the attractiveness of Lebanese averaged 8.8 percent for borrowing in assets. Nonetheless, such deposit inflows Lebanese pounds (LBP) and 7.5 percent in have decelerated sharply since 2011, US Dollar. High interest rates are imperative increasing uncertainty on the economy’s for an economy that is dependent on capital ability to meet its financing needs. inflows to finance its large and persistent twin (fiscal and current account) deficits. In 40. It is important for Lebanon to adopt fact, the 2017-2018 Global Competitiveness significant fiscal reforms that would send Index (GCI) produced by the World Economic a positive shock to markets and citizens Forum ranks Lebanon’s macroeconomic that the Government of Lebanon (GoL) is environment 133rd out of 137 countries, on track to place the debt-to-GDP ratio with government debt ranking 135th. This on a sustainable path. This can be timed has enfeebled investment causing it to with the increased capital expenditures lag in Lebanon’s growth model. Instead, associated with the CIP so as to offset consumption has been the primary driver, the contractionary effects of a fiscal contributing an average of 4 percentage adjustment program. As it currently stands, points (pp) to real GDP growth, 3.3 of which there is widespread apprehension on the due to private consumption, over the 2005- government’s ability to meet its financing 2015 period.10 Meanwhile, the contribution needs in light of slowing deposit inflows of investment to real GDP growth was only to the banking sector. To counter this 1.3 pp over the same period, falling sharply apprehension, the following initiative is to 0.1 since 2011.11 suggested: 39. Lebanon has the third highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world, imposing substantial REFORM 1: financing needs on the Lebanese economy. GoL to adopt a fiscal framework which Gross public debt is estimated to have commits to a positive primary fiscal reached around 153 percent of GDP by end- balance over the medium term, as part of 2017, with only Japan and Greece higher a debt management strategy that aims to Introduction and Summary of Assessment globally. Debt service for the government lower the public debt-to-GDP ratio so that reaches about 10 percent of GDP annually, it is on a more sustainable trajectory. consuming about half of domestic revenues. As a result, the government suffers from a 41. Under current policies, Lebanon’s debt long term and sizable fiscal deficit, which trajectory worsens directly with the in 2016 registered 9.6 percent of GDP. generation of more electricity. Electricité Externally, a large trade deficit drives a du Liban (EdL), the national utility company, sizable structural current account deficit, imparts a staggering burden on Lebanon’s which has averaged close to 20 percent of public finances. Prior to the Syrian conflict, GDP since 2011. In 2016, gross financing government transfers to EdL amounted to needs for the public sector amounted to 30 an average of 55 percent of Lebanon’s fiscal percent of GDP, while that for the external deficit. At their peak in 2012 and 2013, 13 sector (gross external financing needs) the government transferred around US$ 2 were 171 percent of GDP (IMF, 2017).12 This billion per year to EdL. As the overall fiscal balance has been in deficit since 1992, 10 Average real GDP growth was 4.6 percent over the EdL transfers have been effectively paid 2005-2015 period. through borrowing. Based on annual budget 11 Average real GDP growth was 1.8 percent over the documents, World Bank staff estimate 2011-2015 period that cumulative government transfers to 12 IMF Article IV, January 2017. EdL from 1992 to 2013 accounted for a staggering 55.4 percent of 2013 GDP, and ranked Lebanon 136th out of 176 countries almost 40 percent of Lebanon’s total public worldwide in 2016, making Lebanon among debt. That is to say: Lebanon’s debt-to- the 50 most corrupt countries in the world. GDP ratio would have been 83 percent The citizens of Lebanon are looking to their instead of 138 percent (in 2013) if EdL had government to make tangible measures in not been loss making. In response, it is the fight against corruption. Two important recommended that the government place a measures are: limit on its transfers to EdL. REFORM 3: REFORM 2: Council of Ministers (CoM) to endorse Council of Ministers (CoM) to pass a the National anticorruption strategy decree stating that any increase in power currently being developed by the Office supply from new power generation output of the Minister of State for Administrative would be matched by a commensurate rise Reforms (OMSAR). in the average tariff sufficient to leave government transfers to EdL unaffected by the rise in generation. Importantly, this will REFORM 4: also establish the principle of linking tariff Government to expedite reforms to enable increases with service improvements. More the transition to the treasury single than half of respondents to a World Bank’s account (TSA) which facilitates efficient Social and Impact Assessment Survey said management and control of government’s that they would be willing to pay double cash resources. Establishing a unified their current budget on EdL electricity in structure of banking arrangements through return for 24-hour service. The cost of EdL- a TSA is good practice. Under such a supplied electricity would remain far lower structure all government funds are than that of privately supplied generators. collected in one account, which reduces borrowing costs, extends credit and improves government’s fiscal policy and helps reduce opportunities for corruption. GOVERNANCE AND INSTITUTIONS For a TSA to be effective, a sound legal basis needs to be established to ensure its Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 42. Like others, investors are highly weary of robustness and stability. A TSA policy will poor governance and weak institutions in reduce the proliferation of bank accounts Lebanon, which distort their risk-return operated by ministries, departments and calculus, raising the expected return agencies. This in turn will promote greater and shortening the maturity thresholds financial accountability throughout the that are needed for investments to public sector. proceed. Institutions are extremely weak, 43. Lebanon needs Public Investment characterized by both inefficiency and Management (PIM) systems which corruption. The country suffers from a perform well despite systemic capacity governance trap, whereby political stability constraints, and which seek good-fit is maintained through subordination of (rather than “best practice”) projects that national prerogatives to consensus among are informed by the country’s development communal leaders, at the cost of strong priorities. Efficiency in capital expenditure institutions focused on the common good. has become increasingly important in As a result, Lebanon scores poorly on the face of public funding constraints in many aggregate governance indicators. For Lebanon. Many arguments for creating instance, out of 137 countries, Lebanon fiscal space are explicitly about the need to 14 ranks 121 in irregular payments and bribes, better manage scarce resources and boost 128 in public trust in politicians and 130 public investment in physical assets, such in efficiency of government spending.13 In as public infrastructure, and/or in the social addition, Transparency International’s sector facilities (i.e. health, education, etc.) (TI) Corruption Perception Index (CPI) that contribute to improvements in human capital. However, if the Capital Investment 13 Source: World Economic Forum, Global Plan is to be effectively implemented, Competitiveness Index 2017-2018. challenges in core functions need to be procedures are notoriously inefficient addressed to help mitigate the risk of bad levying additional costs to businesses. or inappropriate projects being undertaken, In fact, the 2016 World Bank’s Logistics repeated cost overruns, implementation Performance Index (LPI) indicates a lagging delays and poor investment outcomes. performance for Lebanon’s customs.14 A Thus, in anticipation of expanded capital key policy initiative in support of the trade expenditures, it is recommended: sector is the modernization of customs procedures through the development and implementation of the new customs REFORM 5: strategy. The following is suggested: Government to initiate reforms of Public Investment Management systems in Lebanon, with a view to improving the REFORM 7: efficiency of capital expenditures. CoM to endorse the new customs strategy, which is currently being finalized and which 44. Strengthening the procurement process will entail the following key features: is key for Lebanon as it manages the • Simplified procedures; large projects in the Capital Investment • Enhancing electronic data entry; Plan. Public procurement in Lebanon has • Updating the existing ASYCUDA-based recently received considerable attention, system to support e-payments; generating controversies related to • Developing an electronic registration transparency. Moreover, weak or lack of module to include the development of public procurement oversight continues an E-Single Window with focus on the to contribute to distorting fairness and coordination among all border agencies competition, resulting in favoring the elite in (such as Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry capturing the major market opportunities. of Health, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Economy and Trade, Ministry of Industry, and any other relevant body); REFORM 6: • Strengthening of the Risk Management Parliament to ratify the latest revised System; Public Procurement Law. The law of 1963, • Introducing a full-fledged Authorized which constitutes the legal foundation of Economic Operator (AEO) Program, Lebanon’s current institutional framework which will expadite the process for low- for procurement, is outdated, excessively risk traders. centralized and inadequate, resulting in procurement and execution delays. A revised procurement law originally drafted in 1990, with the latest revision submitted DOING BUSINESS Introduction and Summary of Assessment to Parliament on December 12th, 2012, was only put on the agenda of the “Combined Committees” for discussion on February 46. While there have been no substantial 24, 2015. However, due to lack of time, the reforms across any of the key component review has only covered a small part of the measures that make up the Doing Business Law, and as such it remains unratified. (DB) score since 2007, reform initiatives have been in the pipeline in key areas such as business regulation streamlining, extending credit to SMEs and insolvency TRADE resolution. These are reforms that can be implemented promptly given their current readiness which could, in turn, have a 45. Lebanon is a small open economy with 15 significant impact on SME start-up and a large trading sector, and enabling the growth and job creation. Limitations in trade environment will have a direct and these areas constrain the potential in areas positive impact on firm competitiveness where Lebanon does much better such as and job creation. Lebanon’s exports and imports of goods and services averaged a significant 124 percent of GDP over 14 The 2016 LPI score for customs performance was the past decade. Meanwhile, customs 2.73 for Lebanon, compared to 3.84 for the United Arab Emirates. in business sophistication and innovation. This becomes all the more significant with Figure 7: CIP private financing in all the expected stronger private sector led CIP Cycles. growth suggested by the CIP. Toward that end, the following reforms are suggested: REFORM 8: 33% Parliament to pass the Credit Infrastructure Legislative package (insolvency, insolvency practitioners, secured lending, 67% judiciary mediation). This legislative package will increase access to finance for the private sector in Lebanon, especially SMEs, start-ups and women by • Modernizing the overall insolvency  Other financing  Completely private modalities financing regime to facilitate sound loan recovery and restructuring of viable yet Source: WB staff assessment. distressed firms, and allowing efficient and effective exiting of unviable firms; • Strengthening lenders’ rights in movable assets; and Figure 8: CIP private financing in Cycle 1. • Institutionalizing commercial mediation for fast and cost-effective commercial dispute resolution to free up much needed assets and working capital, and reduce heavy case backlogs in Courts. The role of the central bank, Banque du 38% Liban (BdL), in the banking sector is vital, both as a regulator and credit enabler, 62% and to prevent unintended negative implications on macroeconomic risks, the Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon central bank has to be a full partner when it comes to credit policy. It is thus imperative to keep the collateral registry (that is  Other financing  Completely private associated with the secured lending law) modalities financing with BdL, since BdL’s information set on Source: WB staff assessment. credit conditions and on macro and micro prudential risks cannot be matched by any other institution. Figure 9: CIP private financing in Cycle 2. PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS 47. There should be a transparent, predictable 25% and accountable enabling environment to attract private financing of priority public investments. CIP needs far exceed 16 government fiscal capacity and to be 75% realized will require a crowding in of different funding sources, including, most critically, private financing. To create the enabling environment to attract  Other financing  Completely private significant flows of private investment, modalities financing reform actions will be required across a number of the key infrastructure sectors. Source: WB staff assessment. Figure 10: Sector share of projects Figure 11: Sector share of projects financed completely by the private sector financed completely by the private sector in all CIP Cycles. in Cycle 1.  Electricity  Electricity 1%  Transport  Transport  Telecommunications  Telecommunications 18%  Solid Waste 18%  Solid Waste Management Management 8% 43%  Industry 21% 8% 66% 17% Source: WB staff assessment. Source: WB staff assessment. It will also require that the government the Government credibility as a reliable organize itself differently to manage a PPP partner can be seriously impaired more strategic investment engagement where FCCL obligations are not effectively with the private sector. The first step in managed. This strategy should detail this direction has been taken with the the institutional arrangements, resource passage of the PPP law in September 2017. requirements and processes that will be This establishes the broad governance and required to ensure the government’s fiscal institutional arrangements that can signal capacity to meet any such obligations that to the private sector that effective and fall due during the life of a PPP contract. transparent processes for the identification, development, negotiation, procurement, implementation and monitoring of Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects is in place. REFORM 9: CoM to effect the newly enacted PPP law by enhancing the operational capacity and Introduction and Summary of Assessment by approving regulations pertaining to the organizational and staffing structure, financing arrangements and functionality of the High Council of Privatization and PPPs (HCP). These regulations will ensure that the HCP is fully enabled to fulfill the mandate set out for it in the 2017 PPP law. REFORM 10: Government of Lebanon—through the Ministry of Finance—to put in place a 17 strategic plan for the management of the fiscal commitments and contingent liabilities (FCCL). FCCL obligations are a common feature of long term PPP contracts entailing different project risk allocations between public and private sectors. Not only can these FCCL obligations have significant fiscal consequences, but Figure 12: Infrastructure project finance volume in selected countries 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Kenya Morocco Georgia Jordan Jamaica Colombia Peru Lebanon Lower Middle Income Upper Middle Income Avg deal 327 772 102 307 83 411 251 0 size ($m) # Deals/yr 0.6 0.6 0.8 2.6 1 4.8 4.2 0 Source: WB staff assessment. F. Maximizing Finance for to arrive at US$ 333 million to US$ 1,000 million per year of private infrastructure Lebanon’s CIP financing. 51. In regard to public financing, the Global 48. In value, around 33 percent (US$ 7,462 Concessional Financing Facility, the million) of the CIP project costs (Cycle GCFF, can be a source of financing for the 1, 2 and 3) are assessed as could be CIP. Among all financing sources, official completely financed by the private sector; development assistance (“ODA”) from in Cycle 1 this percentage would be 38 concessional multilateral and bilateral (US$ 2,967) (Figure 7, Figure 8). It would development institutions offer the most be advantageous for Lebanon, with a non- favorable terms (longest maturities, lowest Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon existent fiscal space to frontload bankable interest rates, simpler documentation). projects. In Cycle 2, public concessional The GCFF is an established concessional financing is likely to dominate (Figure 9). financing facility, which can effectively 49. Electricity projects are assessed as the implement programs that address most appealing to the private sector. Lebanon’s long-standing development In value, electricity sector’s share of needs, while at the same time, help mitigate projects financed completely by the the impact on the refugees. private sector is 66 percent (43 percent) 52. Given Lebanon’s limited sovereign for the whole CIP (Cycle 1), followed by borrowing headroom due to high solid waste at 18 percent (18 percent), indebtedness and large debt service then telecommunications at 8 percent (21 obligations relative to GDP (and relative percent) and transport also at 8 percent (17 to government revenues), the Lebanese percent) (Figure 10, Figure 11). authorities may wish to maximize 50. It is important to keep in mind that the the volume of commercial investment assessment on financing was done on a and finance in infrastructure. In such project by project basis and “in principle”. projects, equity return and debt service As such, it should be considered as a target are underpinned by commercial revenues 18 to approach. A cross-comparator country (stemming from ratepayers) rather than analysis on infrastructure private debt the national budget (ultimately funded by finance indicates volumes of between 0.5 taxpayers). These projects can also provide to 1.5 percent of GDP (Figure 12, Figure 13). “value for money” through their efficient This translates to between US$ 250 million allocation of incentives and risks between to US$ 750 million annually for Lebanon. the public and private parties. This helps For total private financing of projects an reduce the life-cycle cost of projects, and average of 25 percent equity is added, improve the quality of service. CIP needs return, this often involves large amounts, Figure 13: Infrastructure project finance long investment horizons, relatively low debt volume, average 2013-2017, financial returns and complex structuring (% of GDP) involved. As a result, there is a need for state involvement to attract commercial investment and finance in infrastructure, A- Peru, 0.5% BBB+ Colombia, 0.6% such that countries often find it necessary BBB Morocco, 0.5% to implement specific facilitation schemes BBB- in parallel with broader sector-level and BB+ Georgia, 0.5% cross-sector enabling policies. BB Jordan, >1.6% BB- B+ 54. For this reason, national authorities Kenya, 0.3% B could consider establishing a Lebanon Jamaica, 0.6% B- Infrastructure Financing Facility (LIFF), 10 100 1,000 with the support of international donors. GDP, USD bn. (log scale) Detailed assessments would need to be conducted by the government’s transaction Source: WB staff assessment. advisors to define more precisely amounts required to support the financing of commercial CIP projects, and the multiplier far exceed current fiscal capacity and to impact of these facilities. As an order of be realized will require a crowding in of magnitude, the average multiplier effect of private financing. The banking system has donor funding on commercial investment limited capacity mainly due to prudential and finance might be in the range of 4 to regulation: their capital adequacy ratios 5 times; meaning that each dollar of donor are high and NPLs are on the rise. Despite or public funds invested in such a scheme Lebanese banks’ willingness to finance could facilitate 4 or 5 dollars of commercial the CIP, these constraints will certainly investments in infrastructure. be binding moving forward. While capital markets are too nascent to play a role in the short to medium term in the financing of the CIP, the potential on longer horizons G. A Growth Dividend is strong and progress on that front 55. If well implemented, the Capital Investment would send a good signal to international Plan will bring about significant investors. infrastructure spending with expected 53. Priority projects with high rates of social growth dividend.15 The former will increase the burden on Lebanon’s fiscal position, Introduction and Summary of Assessment and economic return but low financial rates of return may need financial support from while the latter will mitigate it. This section the state to make them commercially viable quantifies the growth dividend on the real and attractive to private sector investors. GDP that is needed to neutralize the impact Although commercial infrastructure in- of increased public spending on the debt- cludes projects fully in the private sector, in to-GDP ratio over a 10-year period from practice most private sector investments in 2018 to 2027. It is assumed that the CIP will infrastructure involve some form of public- be well implemented and that 2019 would private partnership (PPP) arrangement. be the first year of CIP investment. At one end of the PPP spectrum, many 56. The public finance portion of the CIP investments in telecom, airports and power is estimated to be US$ 1,555 million, generation can be fully financed by the US$ 1,374 million and US$ 337 million, private sector, although some (independent 19 annually, over Cycle 1, 2 and 3, respectively, power producers and internet services) may financed by concessionary borrowing. As give rise to significant contingent liabilities indicated by Figure 3, the CIP is estimated for the state. In other infrastructure to cost US$ 7,818 million, US$ 8,296 projects (particularly in water supply and urban transport), user fees often fall far short of capital cost. For the latter group 15 For a discussion on the growth impact of infrastructure with high rates of social and economic spending, refer to Infrastructure and Growth, Luis Serven, World Bank Research Brief, June 2010. million and US$ 6,686 million in Cycles 1,2 assuming no increases in government and 3, respectively. This translates to US$ revenues compared to the baseline 1,955 million, US$ 2,074 million and US$ scenario. 1,337 million annually over the respective c. CIP with a growth dividend of 0.5 three cycles. Based on comparator-country pp: This scenario adds CIP public analysis in paragraph 50 above, it is noted expenditures to total expenditures that total private financing of projects and assumes growth in real GDP to can range between US$ 333 million to be 2.5 percent annually from 2018 to US$ 1,000 million per year for Lebanon. 2027, with commensurate increases in The following reasonable assumption is the value of government revenues. adopted: Lebanon will be slow to attract d. CIP with a growth dividend of 0.75 private financing at the beginning—due pp: This scenario adds CIP public to lack of capacity and confidence—but expenditures to total expenditures would be increasing successful at doing so and assumes growth in real GDP to be as experience is gained and a pipeline of 2.75 percent annually from 2018 to bankable projects is established. It is thus 2027, with commensurate increases in postulated that private finance would be at the value of government revenues.18 the lower end of the above-identified range in Cycle 1—US$ 400 million annually— e. CIP with a growth dividend of 1 pp: This increasing to US$ 700 million annually scenario adds CIP public expenditures in Cycle 2, reaching the upper end of US$ to total expenditures and assumes 1,000 million annually in Cycle 3. Based growth in real GDP to be 3 percent on that, the public finance portion of the annually from 2018 to 2027, with CIP, and that which would be added to commensurate increases in the value the country’s fiscal position, amounts to of government revenues. US$ 1,555 million, US$ 1,374 million and 58. The CIP needs to generate between 0.75 and US$ 337 million, annually, over Cycle 1, 1 pp in additional growth to the real GDP 2 and 3, respectively.16 Furthermore, it is in order to offset the impact of increased assumed that this would be financed by public spending on the debt-to-GDP ratio concessionary borrowing.17 after 10 years. Results of the simulations 57. Using the World Bank’s Medium-Term Debt are illustrated in Figure 14. In none of the Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon Strategy (MTDS) framework, different tested scenarios does the debt-to-GDP ratio debt profiles are generated are generated stabilize, but instead it continues to rise for varying scenarios of real GDP growth. through 2027. This is a strong indication Specifically, the following scenarios are of public debt unsustainability in Lebanon, considered: even at these higher growth rates, suggesting that debt sustainability will still a. Baseline scenario: The CIP is not require fiscal and structural reforms of the implemented and real GDP growth is type suggested in this document. projected to continue to hover around 2 percent annually from 2018 to 2027. 59. Optimally, the CIP would be part of a b. CIP without a growth dividend: program of fiscal and structural reforms, a Specifically, this scenario adds scenario which can generate much needed CIP public expenditures to total growth that can more than offset the impact expenditures, while retaining growth of increased public spending on the debt- in real GDP at 2 percent annually from to-GDP ratio. In the medium to the long term, 2018 to 2027, and as a consequence, a well implemented CIP can help boost the economy’s competitiveness and potential growth, helping to generate employment 20 opportunities for the Lebanese. 16 Since the first year of CIP investment would be in 2019, and since a 10-year period that commences in 2018 and ends in 2027 is being examined in this exercise, annual CIP public expenditures would be US$ 1,555 million from 2019 to 2022, US$ 1,374 million from 2023-2026 and US$ 337 million in 2027. 18 Total revenues are assumed to remain constant as a 17 For example, the Global Concessional Financing Facility percentage of GDP (at 22.5 percent) over the 10-year is accessible to Jordan and Lebanon for the objective of period, which means that the growth dividend will aiding Syrian refugees and host communities. translate into increased revenues in value. Figure 14: Debt profiles for varying scenarios of CIP growth dividend for real GDP Source: WB staff assessment. Introduction and Summary of Assessment 21 BOX 1: GENDER AND YOUTH IN THE CIP The CIP can positively affect gender and youth conditions in Lebanon. Since construction labor is heavily dominated by low-skill males, the impact would be effected through the value-added generated by completed CIP projects, if well implemented. This can occur via two channels: employment opportunities and socio-economic spillovers. Women labor force participation in Lebanon is very low, especially for those aged 35-45. Only 22 percent of working-age women are active, compared to 70 percent for men and 49.5 percent19 for women globally. Labor participation rates are bell-curved for both women and men, with low rates for youth. Young female participation rate is 20 percent, compared to 40 percent for men, increasing to 40 percent for women and nearly 90 percent for men amongst individuals aged 25-34. However, while labor force participation rate of women aged 35-45 decreases drastically back to 20 percent, that of their male peers remains very high at around 90 percent before declining to 47 percent for men above 45 years of age. Globally, women are primarily responsible for managing water and hygiene at the household and community levels. Moreover, poor water quality poses adverse health consequences especially for pregnant and lactating women and young children. For Lebanon, the Syrian conflict resulted in a 30 percent increase in population over very few years. Overcrowding because of the continuing inflow of the displaced is putting unforeseen pressure on water infrastructure and supply, while also increasing the risk of waterborne diseases and infections. The problem of poor water quality is more severe in urban settings compared to rural areas, where bacteriological contamination can be as high as 90 percent. To the extent that the CIP helps improve these conditions, and a proper implementation of water projects can do so, benefits can disproportionately benefit women and children. Transport is an important enabler for women’s access to economic resources, education, health and Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon other important elements for women’s empowerment. Enhancing women’s mobility leads to improving their access to economic opportunities and contributes to their economic empowerment. In Lebanon, women are constrained by the poor conditions of the road network, and do not have a reliable and safe alternative to private vehicles, given the safety and harassment concerns in existing public transport. Lower-income women currently depend on their husbands to meet their transportation needs (usually one car per household) or are forced to use existing unsafe public transportation. Safety is one of the major constraints highlighted by women through consultations. Women will benefit from the implementation of transport infrastructure projects through improved connectivity, lower transport costs and improved road safety. In addition, the implementation of a reliable, affordable and secure public transport system will allow women to move to access higher education levels, jobs and markets. Women occupy a significant position in the tourism industry; the United Nations World Tourism Organization estimates that tourism has almost twice as many women-led businesses as any other sector. Moreover, 70 percent of tourism labor is women, with concentration in accommodation, catering and handicrafts. Knowledge and creative industries also nurture young talents, providing a necessary alternative to migration; studies done by the European Union show that 40 percent of employees in these industries are under 35 years old, compared to 35 percent of the wider economy. 22 19 Global labor statistics are sourced from International Labor Organization modeled estimates, 2017. ELECTRICITY 23 II. ELECTRICITY The CIP contains 17 separately identified 62. At this stage, there is no clear reason investment projects in the power sector for a total why investments in generation capacity of US$ 5,592 million, to be implemented over should be publicly funded. Models three cycles covering the period 2018-2030. Of based on privately-financed, owned and these projects, the WBG assesses that 7 (at a cost operated power plants that can supply the of around US$ 1,550 million) are important for the requisite additional capacity have been first Cycle of 2018-2021. These comprise projects: tested and used in many countries for E1, E4, E5, E6, E8, E9 and FE5. The costing for decades. Investments in transmission and these projects seems reasonable. These projects distribution networks, on the other hand, can be done in large part by the private sector, but will almost certainly need to be publicly important legal, regulatory and policy changes funded. Allocation of these public funds need to be made. To accommodate this increased will be key to addressing the generation capacity, there will also be a need for transmission gap. investments to absorb the capacity and to ensure stability of the network. It is unclear to the WBG 63. The CIP does not provide for any non-hydro what associated plans are in place to also address renewable energy projects. Given that requisite investments on the transmission and Lebanon is a net importer of primary energy, distribution levels. renewable energy will be key to diversify the country’s generation mix to avoid exposure to external shocks generated by global energy markets. In addition, renewable A. General Comments energy is likely to help reduce the overall cost of generation. 60. Given the severe shortage of generation 64. While Électricité du Liban (EdL) has capacity in the country, there is an urgent, developed with Électricité de France (EdF) and ultimately strategic, need to increase a robust masterplan for expansion of the this capacity quickly. How much generation transmission network, this plan seems to capacity fits in this urgent category would be based on assumptions with respect to depend on (i) the analysis and determination the amounts and locations of generation of the amount of unserved demand, which capacity increases. It is unclear what was estimated in 2016 to be approximately analysis (both technical and economic) was 1,200 MW; and (ii) the generation reserve done to ensure that generation expansion Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon margin needed to maintain grid stability, follows least-cost principles, and it is which typically requires 15 to 20 percent unclear what associated plans are put in more generation capacity than annual place to also address requisite investments peak demand—assuming peak demand is on the distribution level. This may have 3,300 MW, this reserve margin should be been done, but the Bank team is still not 500-660 MW. In this respect, the proposed privy to this work. investments in E1 seem appropriate to meet this urgent need. 65. Tariff and subsidy reforms are a key aspect of electric system expansion. Given the 61. To accommodate this increased capacity, fact that current tariff policies do not there will also be a need for transmission compensate for the cost-of-service, there investments to absorb it and to ensure is a perverse condition where adding stability of the network. There will also be generation capacity on the system means a need for investments on the distribution increased fiscal pressure on Government network, which suffers from significant finances. In other words, the more kilowatt technical and non-technical losses, as well hours are sold, the more the Ministry of as to ensure the added capacity reaches Finance must pay to cover the gap between 24 end-users. In this respect, along with EdL’s cost-of-service and the revenue it any proposal for a generation expansion, receives. There needs to be a clear plan for one would expect to see proposals for tariff reforms that dovetails with the pace associated transmission and distribution of generation expansion. However, tariff investments that would have to be approved increases should be set over time against at the same time (if they have not already the efficient costs of operating the sector been approved). to protect the interests of consumers in not having to pay for chronic inefficiencies in EdL’s operations. In this respect, tariff reforms will also have to be adopted in B. Projects conjunction with a clear, time-bound plan for reforming and corporatizing EdL. 69. E1 – Zahrani and Salaata • The estimate projects’ costs of US$1.2 66. Aside from investments in the transmission billion for 1000 MW of gas-fired, and distribution networks to accommodate combined cycle generation seem to be planned generation expansion, there is an reasonable; even more urgent need to address losses • The International Financial Corporation on both networks, which are estimated (IFC) is in the process of signing a to be between 40-50 percent. To put this mandate with the GoL to lead an advisory more into perspective, assuming current on a PPP for both Zahrani and Salaata. available generation capacity in Lebanon IFC will start with a scoping process is 2,000 MW, ultimately, only 1,000 MW to of these sites, leading to assessment 1,200 MW actually result in revenue to EdL. of feasibility, technically, legally and If EdL increases its generation capacity financially. by 500 MW, only 250 MW to 300 MW of this capacity will be revenue generating. • It is understood that the proposed Decreasing these losses is a high priority for Salaata site is an environmentally- the system, and related investments may, sensitive area. Implementing the in certain instances, be far more productive project in this area may have added financially than investments in increasing environmental mitigation costs that generation capacity. would not be incurred in other sites. This could delay project implementation 67. The proposed cost estimates for some while an appropriate mitigation plan of the generation plants in the CIP seem is developed, assuming of course that to be on the high side. It is important to the identified impacts are of a nature note, however, that costs of doing business that can be mitigated in a cost-effective in Lebanon seem to be higher than in manner; other countries, which could explain the • It is also understood that the site difference between these estimates and still needs to be acquired and new international benchmarks. There can also transmission infrastructure will be be site-specific costs that increase the needed to connect the plant to the grid, total investments. The projects’ feasibility both of which will take some time to studies will be key to determining the complete; reasonableness of capital and other cost • Given the urgent need for the additional estimates. generation capacity and likely time 68. In terms of job creation, most proposed needed to develop the Salaata site, investments are likely to generate other more readily available sites jobs during the construction periods should be developed with Zahrani of the related facilities. However, once to ensure that at least 1000 MW of construction is completed, the number new capacity comes online as soon of staff needed to maintain the facilities as possible. There will still be a need during their economic life is typically not for additional capacity to meet future high. In this respect, the direct impact from demand, which the Salaata site can be the proposed investments on job creation used to satisfy as and when related ELECTRICITY is likely to be low. However, the indirect environmental and land acquisition impact on job creation economy-wide issues are resolved; and from increasing generation capacity and • Generation investment will be associat- improving electricity service is likely to be ed with likely needed transmission 25 high. and distribution investments to allow for delivery of the added capacity. In this respect, the proposed investment should also outline the likely public expenditures needed to accommodate related investments in the energy value chain. 70. E2 – Jieh Power Plant on each of the 25 proposed sites • The estimate projects’ costs of US$ 500 are still needed. Further, given the million for 500 MW of (presumably) gas- potential environmental and social fired, combined cycle generation seem impacts of hydro facilities, in general, to be reasonable, assuming the project it will be critical to undertake such an will be implemented on a brownfield assessment before the full costs of each site; and site can be fully determined. • See bullet No. 4 in paragraph 69. 73. E5 & FE5 – Geothermal Plants of 1 MW and 15 MW 71. E3 – Salaata 2 Power Plant • The proposed 1 MW plant in E5 is a pilot • The estimate projects’ costs of US$ 600 plant in Akkar to drill test geothermal million for 500 MW of (presumably) gas- wells to firm the analytical models of fired, combined cycle generation seem Lebanon’s geothermal resources. The to be reasonable; anticipated cost of electricity from this • It is important to note that development pilot plant is expected to be in the range of this plant will, by necessity, follow of US¢46, though this cost depends on development of Salaata 1 in E1; and factors that will become more apparent • See bullet No. 4 in paragraph 69. as the wells are completed. While it remains unclear what the proposed 72. E4 & FE3 – Hydro Power Plants US$ 5 million cost in the CIP is for, it • The proposed hydro investments in E4 is assumed to be either for studies or and FE3 are identical, but the proposal transaction support to implement the is to implement them in cycles over pilot plant; time. The highest priority should be • The proposed plant in FE5 is an rehabilitation and upgrades of existing enhanced geothermal system (EGS) hydro plants. expected to be implemented in Akkar • There are two significant issues that as well. The estimated cost per kWh need to be addressed with respect to of the electrical output of this plant is these existing plants, part of which expected to be in the range of US¢28 are public and the rest are under based on the current analytical models concessions with the private sector. of the geothermal resources. These Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon Many of the private concessions, which models will need to be updated based deal with relatively old facilities, will on the findings of the pilot plant in expire within the next 10 years, but it E5, once completed. In other words, is unclear what plans the ministry has the investment in FE5 depends on (a) for taking them over. However, without completion of the pilot plant in E5 and a clear vision as to what will happen (b) realizing positive results on the to these concessions after their expiry, available geothermal resource; the private sector has no incentive or • While geothermal generation is an guidance to invest in maintenance and excellent source of clean energy, the rehabilitation. Further, the tariff paid by resources in Lebanon are estimated EdL for hydropower appears inadequate to provide approximately 7 MW of to cover the maintenance costs, which electrical capacity. There is a bigger affects availability of the facilities and potential of thermal generation for long-term asset value. heating equivalent to 71 MW; and • Further, the institutional setup dealing • The strategic question is the priority of with hydropower is ad hoc and involves investments in geothermal generation many stakeholders with little or no 26 in comparison to investments in other coordination among them. It is unclear forms of clean energy (e.g., solar how or why investments in new facilities and wind) that have far lower costs. should be made without resolving this Concentrated Solar Power technologies, critical issue first. for example, would likely provide far • Only pre-feasibility studies were done on more electrical and thermal output the proposed sites for new hydropower at much lower prices than currently facilities. Detailed feasibility studies anticipated for the geothermal resources. As such, the proposed • The number of staff in EdL’s department investments in at least FE5 should and their technical capacity to probably not be a high priority. prepare projects seem inadequate to prepare and implement the proposed 74. E6, E7 and FE6 – Transmission Masterplan projects. There needs to be a clear and Projects credible plan as to how EdL will bridge • At the outset, it is important to note that this gap to avoid problems during the estimated costs for the proposed execution. There also seems to be a investments do not appear to include chronic problem in securing required the cost of land expropriation or permits for transmission projects from compensation for the requisite rights- municipalities that don’t seem to have of-way for the anticipated projects. the capacity to undertake the work Estimating these land costs requires at necessary to grant the permits. This least preliminary surveys of the routes becomes a significant source of delay for the different transmission lines and and potential for interference in the substations to identify the specific implementation process, which needs parcels of lands affected. As such, to be addressed at the broader policy the costs in the CIP are likely to be an level. underestimate from what is actually needed to complete the work. 75. E8 – LV Network Upgrades • EdL expects to upgrade its aging • The 66 kV network was built in the 150 kV transmission network to 220 1970s and long past its useful life. In kV to accommodate the planned this respect, it needs to be replaced generation investments. In other urgently. Some of the proposed words, the proposed transmission investments target this issue, but investments are tied to progress on more is needed on a more systematic the proposed generation projects. basis to ensure proper operation of the Put another way, when a generation distribution network. investment is approved, the approval 76. E9 – Distribution Service Providers (DSP) for the transmission and distribution investments needed to deliver power • DSPs are private-sector companies from the new power plant needs to hired to develop and implement also be considered and approved at the investment plans to reduce distribution same time. level losses. The country was divided into 3 regions that were awarded to 3 • Before contemplating new investments separate companies. The Government in the 220 kV network, a solution to the is responsible for funding the long-outstanding problem of connecting investment plans agreed with the the existing 220 kV loop at Mansourieh DSPs in order for the DSPs to meet needs to be found. the contractually-mandated targets to • The proposed investment in E7 relates improve performance of the distribution to ALL of the generation projects networks in their awarded region. to accommodate the additional Currently, only 1 of the 3 companies load from the proposed generation seems to have achieved positive results, projects and better balance the load and the contracts of all 3 were recently across substations. Most of proposed renewed for 4 years after the initial ELECTRICITY investments in E7 appear to relate to contract term of 5 years had expired; evacuation from new power plants at • One of the key contractual conditions Zouk (the old ones are connected to was for DSPs to install smart meters 150 kV but the new one will be at 220 27 to begin addressing the significant bill kV), Akkar wind farm, Jieh and Selaata, collection and non-technical losses but also include relocation of Jeita on the distribution level, which in turn substation to create a 220 kV loop would decrease the amount of subsidy from Zouk, equipped with underground EdL needs. Although other investments cables to feed the coastal towns of in at least 1 of the regions (north) Adma and Jounieh. moved forward, with very positive results in terms of reduced EdL losses and increased revenue, installation pipelines would be built, operated and of smart meters has not happened in maintained by the private sector, and the DSPs’ initial 5-year term. The main paid for by the tariff for gas purchased impediment, based on the information over the life of a gas supply agreement provided, is political; and between EdL (or MoEW) and the private • Investments in smart meters should company(ies); and be a high priority as they will increase • These pipelines would not go through EdL revenues and likely more than Beirut, but it would seem reasonable pay for themselves. The amount of the that they would form the basis for a investments needed is determined north-to-south gas pipeline backbone by the DSPs, subject to review and for the country. In this respect, it is approval by EdL. unclear what the rationale is for a separate, publicly-financed project 77. E10 – Gas Pipeline towards that end. • Based on preliminary analysis undertaken by the Bank several years 78. FE1 and FE2 – New Power Plants at Zouk ago, building a north-to-south gas and undisclosed Locations pipeline would be very costly, primarily • These seem to be placeholders at this because (a) a land-based pipeline must point. However, it is important to point go through Beirut where land costs are out that the planned expansion of gas- very expensive and (b) the sea floor off fired capacity at Zouk and elsewhere the Lebanese coast is very deep, which needs to be coordinated with the would increase the cost of a marine plans for overall gas supply (and gas pipeline. Additional studies are needed pipelines) in the country. For example, to further refine these conclusions and if the intension is to install these 1,500 analyse alternatives, but it is unclear MW of new capacity gas-fired, this could whether any of these studies have been impact the design of any contemplated completed; gas pipelines in E11 (or alternatives) • A north-to-south gas pipeline would and transmission/distribution network make the current plan to install 3 expansions. It could also have an FSRUs in Zahrani, Salaata and Bedawei impact on the design of the FSRUs, if the intention is to bring this capacity online Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon unnecessary. It is far more economical to install one large FSRU at one of these in the next 10 years. sites and connect to this proposed gas pipeline to transport the gas where it is needed. In this respect, the proposed timeframe in the CIP for this gas pipeline seems inconsistent with the ongoing plans for the FSRUs; • The proposed FSRUs include an obligation on the awarded private- sector company(ies) to construct a gas pipeline from the FSRUs to the power plants that they are expected to serve. In the south, this is likely to be Zahrani and Jieh (after its rehabilitation), and, in the north, it is likely to be Bedawei. The Bedawei gas pipeline could ostensibly 28 be extended to reach Salaata (thus eliminating the needed for a separate FSRU at that location) and Zouk (after its rehabilitation), which would likely increase the economies-of-scale at the Bedawei FSRU site (thus reduce the overall cost of gas supply) by using a larger gas importing facility. These C. Reform Needs 79. CoM to approve and implement a multi-year electricity tariff cost-recovery plan for EdL over a 3-year transition period. EdL’s tariff has not been revised since 1996 and is thus far below cost-recovery levels, exacerbating the fiscal burden on government which covers the utility’s revenue gap. Any tariff increases, however, need to be phased in to coincide with increases in hours of electricity supplied by EdL to show its customers tangible results commensurate with the larger bill. Importantly, tariff increases should also include an effective lifeline block helping to protect low income consumers and/or cash transfers. Taken together, this would improve sector financial conditions without increasing the fiscal burden on public finances, while also generating public support or at least minimizing public resentment. 80. The Ministry of Energy to complete implementation of approved development plan for natural gas supply by developing new LNG supply and infrastructure facilities, liquefied natural gas importing infrastructure and plan to explore and exploit off-shore domestic gas resources. 81. The Government to aim towards meeting and expanding the target in the 2010 energy plan for renewable energies and green growth.  Evidence suggests that Lebanon is especially exposed to large vulnerabilities from climate change with the poor disproportionately affected. The estimated impact of climate change on Lebanon is encompassing and costly (estimated at US$ 1.9 billion by 2020 in a first of its kind analysis for Lebanon released this year by Ministry of Environment/UNDP). A green growth and low carbon emissions development strategy for Lebanon could also be an opportunity for job creation. ELECTRICITY 29 Table 5. Electricity Projects. Estimated Cost Land Expropr. Ref Project (MUS$) (MUS$) GENER (1) New power plants on Medium (2) E1.1 600.0 N/A Term - IPP - 500MW – Zahrani GENER (1) New power plants on Medium (2) E1.2 600.0 N/A Term - IPP - 500MW – Salaata E2 GENER Jiye Power plant-500MW 500.0 0.0 GENER Salaata 2 Plant on Longer Term - E3 600.0 0.0 500MW E4 GENER Hydro power plants (331.5 MW) 264.1 N/A E5 GENER Geothermal Plant of 1.3 MW 5.0 N/A Transmission Master Plan Project E6 223.6 0.0 (High Importance) Transmission Master Plan Project including E7 Infrastructure at KSARA Substation 253.7 0.0 (Mid Importance) E8 Transmission LV Network Upgrade E8.1 Transmission LV Network Upgrade 20.0 0.0 E8.2 Transmission LV Network Upgrade 6.0 0.0 E8.3 Transmission LV Network Upgrade 6.0 0.0 E8.4 Transmission LV Network Upgrade 6.0 0.0 E8.5 Transmission LV Network Upgrade 6.0 0.0 E8.6 Transmission LV Network Upgrade 6.0 0.0 E8.7 Transmission LV Network Upgrade 6.0 0.0 E9.1 Distribution DSP 262.5 N/A Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon E9.2 Distribution DSP 87.5 N/A E10 Fuel Sourcing Gas Pipeline 140.0 N/A Existing Land FE1 GENER Zouk Power plant - 500MW 500.0 Dedicated for the power plant GENER New Power plants on Longer Term - FE2 1,200.0 New Location 1000 MW FE3 GENER Hydro power plants (141.5 MW) 112.7 N/A FE5 GENER Geothermal Plant of 15MW 52.7 N/A Transmission Master Plant Project FE6 134.6 N/A (Low Importance) 30 WATER AND WASTEWATER 31 III. WATER AND WASTEWATER The CIP (Capital Investment Plan) contains 206 with growing water needs, options of new separately identified investment projects in the water, such as reuse and storm-water water and wastewater sectors for a total of US$ management, can be explored to fill the 7,527 million, to be implemented over three cycles gap on water availability and adapt to the covering the period 2018-2030. For the purpose climate change impact. Usually the most of the assessment, the water sector projects in vulnerable are the ones who don’t have the CIP were grouped into two groups—networks access to reliable services and are forced to and dams—while the wastewater projects seek expensive alternatives or are usually were grouped into three groups—networks, dependent on “unhygienic alternatives”, wastewater treatment plants and new system which also generate environmental (WWTP+ networks). In regard to the water sector, concerns, such as pollution of groundwater. the WBG assesses that networks and dams at a Hence, the sanitation components would cost of around US$ 1,224 million plus US$ 103 tackle public health, water supply safety, million for land expropriation, are important for and environmental issues. In addition, the first Cycle (2018-2021). While water networks better planning is required to connect can potentially be completed and managed wastewater networks to wastewater by the private sector, provided that important treatment plants. legal, regulatory and policy measures are introduced, dams need a stronger public sector 85. For each of water supply and sanitation role. As for wastewater projects, WBG assesses sectors, due to the limited human resources US$ 1,334 million plus US$ 35 million for land at the water establishments, performance- expropriation, are important for the first Cycle based contracts to operate and manage (2018-2021). When considering project cost, it is infrastructure is an option to pursue. It essential to confirm that the amounts provided would offer two advantages: (i) improve the in the CIP include the cost of expropriation and accountability and the performance by way environmental mitigation. of a larger private sector role; and (ii) create jobs for national operators (develop small and medium enterprises in the water supply and sanitation sectors). A. General Comments 86. The water supply and the wastewater plans under the Capital Investment Plan (CIP) 82. In Lebanon, citizens’ need for additional are critical as they cover the investments Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon water sources and sanitation has in- needed in the sector for Lebanon. Based creased due to population growth, on the World Bank current engagement economic development, urban expansion, in Greater Beirut Water Supply Project supply shortages and the inability of public (GBWSP-known as Awali project) and the water entities to deliver required volumes Water Augmentation Water Supply (WSAP- and quality of service in water supply and known as Bisri dam), the following thoughts sanitation. are shared. 83. The objective on water supply is to reach 24/7, which contributes to restoring or maintaining the social contract on water WATER SUPPLY service. During water shortages, people resort to expensive alternative options such as tankers and bottled water. The 87. On the network rehabilitation, the World continuous service would allow for the Bank has provided technical support reduction of the cost to the most vulnerable, to the Beirut and Mount Lebanon Water along with health benefits from improved Establishment (BMLWE) on reducing water 32 water quality. leakages. To ensure a continuous water- supply, leakages need to be reduced, and 84. On sanitation, expanding services with for that, training of staff in pressure control improved technology throughout Lebanon, and leak detection is essential. Improving will contribute to reinforcing the social the water service is an opportunity to contract, generating environmental and update tariff structure and put in place health benefits to the citizens. Now that the volumetric tariff. The reduction of leakages, country is progressing well on water supply, if well designed, can be an opportunity sanitation becomes necessary. In addition, to improve private sector participation appropriate technologies (wastewater/ initially through performance-based network is not the only option in some cases contracts. More detailed discussions are septage treatment plants are an option too); needed to see how to scale up the current (ii) understand the financing needs of the technical assistance to the other water sector (including if the numbers include the establishments. The North Lebanon Water expropriation costs); and (iii) evaluate the Establishment has experience in providing CAPEX and OPEX associated with various continuous water supply, and it can also technological options. A discussion on provide useful lessons. the Operation and Maintenance including management of the sludge is also needed. 88. On water supply storage, the Bisri dam The Bank water team stands ready to has been an opportunity to learn multiple provide technical support in the sanitation. lessons that could be used in future programs. First, in the budget provided for dams’ projects in the CIP, it is critical to assess if the cost of expropriation and B. Assessment of Water environmental mitigation is accounted for to ensure that the project is cost- Establishments effective. Second, the alternative analysis study conducted for the Bisri dam was 90. In 2000, Water Sector Law 221 was enacted essential to ensure that the dam is a best with the objective of: (i) clarifying the option in an overall national program of respective obligations and rights of public infrastructure, and non-structural measure agencies for the delivery of water services; to achieve water security. Third, the high (ii) empowering the newly created Regional quality of Environmental and Social Impact Water Establishments (RWEs) to increase Assessment done for Bisri dam confirmed service and improve sustainability; and that the dam is the best alternative. The (iii) creating reciprocal accountability mitigation plan/financing for the identified between customers and the RWEs. The full environmental and social impacts as well implementation of Law 221 was however as the communication with stakeholders impeded by fragmentation of investment, emphasized the need to establish benefit- planning and execution responsibilities, sharing programs for the local people in the inadequate tariffs and tariff structure, surrounding communities. poor inter-Government coordination and significant delays in infrastructure investment. SANITATION 91. The four water establishments are the following: North Lebanon Water Establishment (NLWE), Beirut and Mount 89. The inclusion of wastewater as an area Lebanon Water Establishment (BMLWE); of engagement in the CIP is applauded. Beqaa Water Establishment (BWE); and Augmenting the water supply will induce South Lebanon Water Establishment increasing wastewater volume in the (SLWE). A summary of the CIP projects WATER AND WASTEWATER different areas in Lebanon. However, according to water establishment is as per sanitation goes beyond wastewater the table below: infrastructure and looks at the management level to ensure sustainability of sanitation service delivery. This would require an adequate tariff for wastewater services based on volume of water consumed. Also significant, is the closing of the loop through 33 options of reuse of treated wastewater such as agricultural irrigation, industry, aquifer-recharge, etc., when feasible. Hence, it is important to emphasize that sanitation is a critical topic in Lebanon. It is recommended to (i) start engaging on inclusive sanitation, including looking at Table 6: Summary of CIP projects per water authority. Water Supply Sanitation Water Establishment # projects estimated costs # projects estimated costs (US$ M) (US$ M) NLWE 41 1,251 19 468.8 BMLWE 12 891 38 1,234.3 SLWE 27 1,751.5 14 365.7 BWE 44 951 9 333.6 Grand Total 124 4,844.5 80 2,402.5 • For sanitation projects, the CIP shows reduction and management contract that there is a need of: in Achrafieh, funded by the WB, for » small scale municipal projects to be further enabling the environment of the handled by water establishments performance contracts in the future. and/or municipality depending • SLWE: priority in the CIP is given on the location for a cost US$ 250 to projects in water supply and the million which are excluded from the reduction of the losses. Similar to the table above. NLWE, the projects on sanitation are » Ghadir flood protection against pragmatic, helping to protect water the flooding of major highways is sources. considered as national needs for a • BWE: there is a need for water supply cost of US$ 30 million. for the areas that are not connected. • NLWE: priority in the CIP is given to The water quality is of a major concern projects in water supply. It makes where there is a need to reduce pollution sense as the establishment wants to in lake Qaraoun. The WB is contributing expand the water supply network while US$ 55 million to reduce the quantity of keeping the 24/7 for the existing areas untreated municipal sewage discharged Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon with continuous water supply. This is into the Litani River and to improve the only water establishment that is pollution management around Qaraoun delivering continuous water supply Lake. Sanitation projects are a top and it is important to maintain this priority for BWE. social contract with the customers. The projects under sanitation are pragmatic, helping to protect water sources. Priority should have maximal C. Reform Needs use of the current wastewater treatment plant capacity by connecting the wastewater network. OVERVIEW OF THE CIP • BMLWE: priority in the CIP is given to projects in sanitation which is in line 92. The Capital Investment Plan (CIP) with WB team assessment. Indeed, a includes 124 water supply projects and lot of work has been done for water 82 wastewater projects, covering the supply, while the focus on sanitation is whole of Lebanon: North, Beirut and pragmatic and recommended as future Mount Lebanon, South and the Bekaa 34 next steps. With World Bank technical areas. It is essential to confirm that the assistance and its own funding, amounts provided in the CIP include the the BMLWE launched a contract to cost of expropriation and environmental establish DMAs in South Beirut by end mitigation. Since project specific of November 2017. The establishment information is not sufficiently available, the is now finalizing the preparation of the team assessed groups of projects for the first performance–based water loss water supply and sanitation sectors. There are no irrigation sector activities except for tariffs based on a progressive block the following dams to be used for irrigation system that allows to consider social located in the Bekaa area, namely (i) Massa and economic conditions; Dam; (ii) Younine Dam and (iii) Litani - c. Improve coordination mechanism Conveyor 800 Phase 2. between the planning/construction 93. To help improve level of service in water function and the operation and supply and sanitation, the three top priority maintenance function by enhancing reforms are the following: the role of the operation and maintenance functions in project a. Ratification of the water code (at preparation; parliament level) to increase the options of private sector involvement d. Raising awareness of the customers to operate and maintain water of the cost of water services. While infrastructure for the medium to long water is free, it is a scarce commodity terms; and cost of the services need to be covered. Covering full cost by tariffs b. Improvements of by-laws for the Law will raise awareness. 221 for autonomy status of the Water Establishments to transfer function to the Water Establishments; c. Recruitment of staff to support D. Projects Ratings operation and maintenance of water facilities; and Recommendations d. New tariff structure for water supply 96. The ranking of the projects as proposed and wastewater services to cover at is acceptable. First, there is a need to least operation and maintenance cost; define overall project objective, second, and to derive specific project objectives, and e. Improve coordination between third, thereupon develop the prioritization planning and construction and criteria being applied to define 3 project operation and maintenance functions stages/cycles. Hence, additional criteria for in the water sector. prioritizing any project should consider, but 94. For the purpose of the assessment, the is not limited to: water sector projects in the CIP were a. Prioritization of projects with lowest grouped into two groups—networks and ratio of CAPEX per benefitting dams—while the wastewater projects were population. grouped into three groups—networks, b. Prioritization of areas with high wastewater treatment plants and new prevalence of waterborne diseases. system (WWTP+ networks). All the projects c. Prioritization of areas with highest were distributed as per the geographical water pollution incidents/risks. location per water establishment. d. Prioritization of areas with highest 95. Enabling conditions to make the water industrial/economic relevance. WATER AND WASTEWATER sector more attractive for private sector e. Prioritization of areas where quantity involvement (including private funding): and quality of water supply is worst. a. Secure real autonomy for the water 97. “Soft” Components: The CIP only mentions establishments (financially and projects with works/installations. A authority); comprehensive program may also include b. Introduce adequate tariff structure institutional, financial and technical to gradually cover operation and assistance to the 4 Water Establishments 35 maintenance cost for drinking water (WEs) and relevant Ministries. Such a soft and waste water services plus capital component could include, but is not limited cost (depreciation and debt service). to, the following: The Ministry of Energy and Water could a. Optimization of actual institutional develop national guidelines for water set-up and staffing structure of WEs. b. Optimization of financial management and sustainability, by looking into the whole cycle of financial aspects, such as: Who defines water/ wastewater tariffs? Who is in charge of collecting fees? Who is receiving the tariff fees? Who has responsibility to use the collected money? Who has responsibility for infrastructure planning and implementation? Who has ownership of assets? Need for public subsidies (if yes, what are prevailing conditions?) etc. c. Procurement training – particularly for Design-Build (DB) and Design-Build- Operate (DBO) contracts, to better utilize market know-how. d. WWTP operator training. e. Workshops on supposedly not so well- known technical and environmental issues such as pipe rehabilitation, sewage/septage treatment tech- nologies, biogas production and utilization, treated water and sludge reuse, GHG emissions, olive oil residue management, optimized fertilizer and pesticide application in agriculture. f. Analysis of appropriateness of applied treatment standards for municipal WWTPs, including creation of awareness for cost implications of Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon different standards. g. Effluents from industries: promotion of cleaner technologies, pre-treatment of effluents to sewer systems and to water bodies. h. Development of a strategic plan for treated water reuse in agriculture, groundwater recharge, industries, or other. i. Strategic planning of minimum monitoring needs by utilities. j. Define key operation indicators, and develop Lebanese water and sanitation benchmarking based on those indicators. k. Public outreach campaigns on water/ 36 sanitation issues. Table 7: Water Supply Networks Projects Estimated Land Ref Project Cost Exprop. (MUS$) (MUS$) W8A Expropriations for Beirut Storage Tanks 0 35 W7 Water Supply system rehabilitation in Beirut area 100 0 W3A Transmission line from Janneh Dam to Greater Beirut 60.0 0.0 W4 Water treatment plant and water supply system for Beqaata Dam 35.0 2.0 W6A Water supply system for Chabrouh Dam 40.0 2.0 W8 Water Supply Project for Mount Lebanon 100.0 0.0 W9 Qobayat Water Supply Systems, Phase 1 51.0 0.5 W10 Halba Water Supply Systems, Phase 1 92.0 0.5 W1 Water supply system for Mseilha Dam 14.5 5.0 W2 Water supply system for Balaa Lake 10.5 3.0 W11 Danniyeh Water Supply Systems, Phase 1 27.0 0.5 W12 Minieh Water Supply Systems, Phase 1 12.0 0.5 W13 Tripoli Water Supply Systems, Phase 1 25.0 0.5 W14 Zgharta Water Supply Systems, Phase 1 24.0 1.0 W15 Bcharre Water Supply Systems, Phase 1 10.0 0.0 W16 Koura Water Supply Systems, Phase 1 55.0 0.5 W17 Batroun Water Supply Systems, Phase 1 25.0 0.5 W24 Yahfoufa Water Supply System 12.0 0.5 W25 Qaa El Rim System 28.0 0.5 W26 Qab Eilas, Jdita and Zebdol Water Supply systems 9.0 0.5 W27 Aanjar Water Supply System 24.0 0.5 W28 Chamsine Water Supply System 6.0 0.5 W29 Ain El Zarqa Part 1 Water Supply System 16.0 0.5 W30 Ain El Zarqa Part 2 Water Supply System 6.0 0.5 W18 Ain El Hawr -Ras El Meil Systems 18.0 1.0 W19 Ein El Zarqa 8.0 1.0 W20 Laboue Water Supply System 17.0 0.5 W21 Ouyoun Orghosh Water Supply System 9.0 0.5 W22 Younine, Maqne and Nahle water supply systems 5.0 0.5 W23 Yamoune Water Supply Systems 50.0 0.5 WATER AND WASTEWATER W35 Nabatiye Water Supply System 26.0 0.5 W36 Bint-Jbeil Water Supply System 63.0 0.5 W37 Marjaayoun & Hasbaya Water Supply Systems 24.0 0.5 W31 Saida Water Supply Systems 25.0 1.0 W32 Zahrani Water Supply System 39.0 0.5 W33 Jezzine Water Supply System 6.0 0.5 37 W34 Sour Water Supply System 42.0 0.5 Table 8: Water Supply Dams Projects Estimated Land Ref Project Cost Exprop. (MUS$) (MUS$) W41A Remaining Expropriations for Besri Dam 0.0 15.0 W41B Remaining Expropriations for Chabrouh Dam 0.0 20.0 W50 Damour Dam 150.0 30.0 W39 Ain Dara -Azounieh Dam 110.0 5.0 W40 Maaser Chouf Dam 85.0 2.0 W38 El Bared Dam 300.0 0.0 W45 Noura el Tahta Dam 80.0 10.0 W46 Atolbe Dam 18.0 2.0 W55 Qarqaf Dam 81.0 #N/A W38A Additional funds for Mseilha Dam 15.0 0.0 W38B Additional funds for Balaa Dam 7.0 0.0 W38C Repairing works for Brissa Dam 15.0 #N/A W47 Dar Baachtar Dam 75.0 10.0 W48 IaaL Dam 70.0 10.0 W49 Rahwe Dam 25.0 10.0 W53 Wadi Chich Dam 20.0 0.0 W43 Barhashah Dam 40.0 1.0 W41 Assi Phase 1 Dam 65.0 0.0 W42 Assi Phase 2 Dam 300.0 40.0 W44 Ibl es Saqi Dam 200.0 100.0 W51 Khardali Dam 435.0 200.0 Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon W52 Kfarsir Dam 45.0 15.0 W56 Choumariye Dam 60.0 20.0 W3 Hydropower plant for Janneh Dam 100.0 0.0 W53 Irrigation - Massa Dam 60.0 4.0 W54 Irrigation - Younine Dam 65.0 10.0 Irrigation - Litani - Conveyor 800 Phase 2 -Irrigation and Water W5 300.0 0.0 Networks 38 Table 9: Sanitation Networks Projects Estimated Land Ref Project Cost Exprop. (MUS$) (MUS$) Completion of missing networks and collectors within Tripoli WW1 #N/A  #N/A WWTP Service Area WW10 Beirut wastewater systems 50.0 0.0 Extension and upgrading of collection networks within Ghadir WW13 0.0 wastewater treatment plant drainage basin 108.0 WW01a 1-km Link of the main collector Bohsas - Maarad 5.0 0.0 WW01b Qalamoun villages WW networks 5.0 0.0 Wastewater networks in the coastal and central villages and WW01c towns of Koura - Phase 2 20.0 3.0 WW01d Zgharta Wastewater networks 30.0 0.0 WW01e Wastewater networks for coastal part of Minie - Danniye District 19.0 0.0 Expansion of Wastewater collection networks of West Bekaa, WW76 0.0 Phase 2 27.0 WW61 Jbaa Wastewater System 7.5 0.0 WW16 Completion of wastewater networks in Saida 25.0 0.0 WW17 Sour Phase 3 50.0 0.0 Completion of wastewater networks within Jbeil WWTP Service WW07 40.0 0.0 Area WW08 Networks for Halat and Nahr Ibrahim 9.1 0.0 WW14 Expansion of sewer networks for coastal Chouf 40.0 0.0 Completion of wastewater networks within El Aabde WWTP WW04 60.0 1.0 Service Area WW01f Wastewater networks for villages in the center of Danniye 20.0 0.0 WW79 Madfoun System 20.0 0.0 WW73 Timnine Part 2 Wastewater System 66.0 5.0 WW63 Nabatiye Part 2 (East Nabatiye) Wastewater System 50.0 0.0 WW58 Halloussieh Wastewater System 6.0 1.5 WW59 Srifa Wastewater System 8.0 0.0 WATER AND WASTEWATER 39 Table 10: Waste Water Treatment Plants Projects Estimated Land Ref Project Cost Exprop. (MUS$) (MUS$) WW78 Small Scale Municipal Projects 250.0 0.0 WW11 Ghadir Flood Protection 30.0 0.0 WW12 Upgrade of Ghadir wastewater treatment plant 200.0 0.0 WW18c Jbeil WWTP Extension 20.0 0.0 WW18d Nabi Younes - WWTP Expansion 20.0 0.0 WW18a Chekka WWTP Expansion 20.0 0.0 WW18b Batroun WWTP Expansion 20.0 0.0 WW09 Upgrade of Daoura wastewater treatment plant 300.0 0.0 WW64 Expansion of Nabatiye Wastewater Treatment Plant 20.0 0.0 WW15 Upgrade of Saida wastewater treatment plant 55.0 0.0 Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 40 Table 11: Sanitation System Projects Estimated Land Ref Project Cost Exprop. (MUS$) (MUS$) WW22 Qartaba, Aqoura and Afqa wastewater systems 20.0 5.0 WW31 Additional Funds for Hrajel Wastewater System 20.0 2.0 WW34 Additional funds for Jeita system 15.0 0.0 WW40 Sfailah and Qortada (Zandouqa) Wastewater system 67.6 6.6 WW41 Bmaryam - Btibyat Wastewater system 28.1 4.9 WW35 Kfartai Wastewater system 6.5 0.0 WW32 Aachqout WWTP 20.5 0.0 WW23 Bchille system 5.0 0.0 WW24 Aabaydat system 11.0 0.0 WW25 Tartij Small Local Station 1.5 0.0 WW26 Aalmat system 12.0 0.0 WW27 Jaj WWTP 6.6 0.0 WW28 Lehfed Haqel Small Stations 2.2 0.0 WW29 Behdaydat WWTP 3.5 0.0 WW30 Yahchouch WWTP 8.3 0.0 WW33 Bqaatouta WWTP 0.8 0.0 WW36 Abou Mizane WWTP 3.3 0.0 WW37 Zabbougha WWTP 0.8 0.0 WW38 Es Souane WWTP 20.7 0.0 WW39 Mtein WWTP 6.3 0.0 WW42 Hlaliye Wastewater System 44.9 3.2 WW43 Shwite Wastewater System 12.8 2.0 WW44 Qtale Wastewater System 12.6 2.5 WW45 Arsoun Wastewater System 8.6 1.3 WW47 Rouayssat En Naamane Small Local Station Wastewater System 66.0 3.2 WW48 El Knaisse Wastewater System 83.0 3.5 WW53 WWTP1 Wastewater System 0.2 0.0 WW54 WWTP2 Wastewater System 8.0 0.0 WW57 Kfar Matta Small Local Station Wastewater System 0.5 0.0 WW19 Additional Funds for Meshmesh (Fnaydeq) Wastewater System 8.0 1.0 WATER AND WASTEWATER WW03 Qabaait system and remaining small systems in Minie - Danniye 62.0 0.0 Construction of small scale Wastewater Systems in Akkar WW06 25.0 5.0 Wetlands Construction of wastewater systems for Akkar El Atika, WW05 25.0 0.0 Qobaiyat and surrounding villages WW20b Kfar Hay system 25.0 0.0 41 WW20c Chebtine system 15.0 0.0 WW02 Bakhoun WWTP and networks 25.0 0.0 WW20a Ajed Ebrine system 4.5 0.0 WW21 Small systems to protect Qadisha Valley 50.3 0.0 WW74 Eastern Zahle Wastewater System 45.0 5.0 Wastewater Systems for Sohmor, Yohmor, Zilaya and WW75 17.6 0.1 surrounding villages WW77 Wastewater System for Rachaiya villages 64.0 0.6 WW69 Additional funds for Hermel WWTP and Networks 27.0 0.0 Upgrade of Iaat (Baalbek) WWTP and additional networks for WW72 11.0 0.0 Baalbek city and surrounding villages WW71 Qaa and Jdaide Wastewater System 25.7 0.0 WW70 Bajjaje Wastewater System 39.5 0.0 WW65 Additional funds for Hasbaiya System 27.7 0.5 WW68 Bint Jbeil Wastewater System 32.0 0.0 WW62 Braiqaa Wastewater System 26.0 0.0 WW66 Ouadi Slouqi Wastewater System 33.0 0.0 WW60 Nabaa el Tasseh Wastewater System 18.0 0.0 WW67 Deir Mimas Wastewater System 5.5 0.0 Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 42 TRANSPORT 43 IV. TRANSPORT The CIP contains 24 separately identified South Coastal Corridor (roughly about 250 investment projects in the transport sector for a km) where about 80 percent of Lebanon’s total of US$ 7,381 million, implemented over three population is concentrated, and an East- cycles covering the period 2018-2030. Of these West (roughly about 50 km) Corridor linking projects, the WBG assesses that 7 (at a cost of Beirut to Damascus. The construction of around US$ 1,832 million, plus US$ 173 million the highway system started in the 1960s, for land expropriation) are important for the first yet important links such as the Beirut Cycle of 2018-2021. These comprise projects: Peripherique, the extension of the Highway TP5, TP6, TP8/a, TP10, TP16, TP18, and TP19. from Tripoli to the Syrian border in the The estimated costs are generally reasonable, North, and the extension of the Highway to although they appear on the low side—in most Tyre and the southern border are still not cases, the actual cost of projects is higher than completed after over 50 years of planning. initially predicted, and this is particularly the case in Lebanon given long implementation period. 100. Beyond Highways, the remaining While most CIP transport projects can have a investments are also focused on the PPP dimension, especially during the operations development of strategic assets. This and maintenance phase, they require substantial includes the expansion of Tripoli Port to concessional public financing especially upfront. become an important gateway to Syria and WBG also notes institutional constraints and low Iraq, the construction of the first modern capacity for implementing agencies to absorb and railway linking Tripoli port to Syria, the execute the large investments under the CIP. introduction of a reliable public transport network and BRT lines, and the expansion While the CIP includes strategic investments, some of Beirut airport. Regional and smaller important parts remain missing. Improvement investments represent a much smaller of traffic conditions in secondary cities, such as share and are primarily focused on the Tripoli and Saida, is not included, and neither is rehabilitation of the road network, with future developments/expansions of ports capacity about US$ 500 million earmarked for that and/or future railway lines. purpose. 101. While the CIP includes the most strategic investments, some important parts remain A. General Comments missing. Specifically, the improvement of traffic conditions in secondary cities, such Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 98. The transport projects included in the CIP as Tripoli and Saida is not included, neither generally represent important parts to are future developments/expansions of complete Lebanon’s strategic transport ports capacity and future railway lines. network. Most projects are strategic 102. The overall phasing of the projects is and on the list of government programs/ logical, however it is presented primarily priorities for years. While there is no official from a “readiness” lens and capacity to strategy for the Ministry of Public Works implement. The CIP calls on starting all and Transport (MPWT), there is a strategic major transport infrastructure in parts, document by the Council of Development such as executing the Beirut Peripherique in and Reconstruction (CDR) which was 3 phases, the Jounieh Bypass in 3 phases, prepared in 2005 and which identified the public transport plan in 3 phases most of these large transport infrastructure and so on. While this is appropriate and projects (SDATEL), in addition to priorities shows realism in terms of implementation in several other sectors. Some of the sequences, the phases usually make projects have been on the government economic sense as “stand-alone” priorities for many decades and have not projects, yet there are important economic 44 been implemented due to complexity and multipliers when the full infrastructure high cost. is executed such as completing the full 99. The bulk of the transport investments are Peripherique. The CIP however does not to complete Lebanon’s Highways. About provide a sense of prioritization between US$ 5 billion are earmarked to complete these various large infrastructures. For Lebanon’s highway network. Despite instance, the CIP does not answer whether Lebanon having a small highway network the Beirut Peripherique is a priority over the consisting mainly of two axes—a North- Jounieh Bypass, or whether, in a resource constrained environment, the government expensive, particularly due to bad land should opt to complete the Peripherique, transport infrastructure and inefficient or do 2 phases of the Peripherique and 2 logistics and customs procedures phases of the Jounieh bypass, and so on. (Table 12). An economic and financial prioritization might be helpful. Moreover, the phasing of 105. Investments in transport infrastructure the two main highways in the CIP (A2 and and services will also create an important Peripherique) need more in-depth analysis economic stimulus—and is often a typical and is further discussed in Paragraph 117. economic stimulus instrument globally— which is much needed for the Lebanese economy. This is primarily due to the large local economic multiplier effects B. The Impact on of transport infrastructure and services (local engineering and contractors, local the Socio-Economy suppliers of materials, local truckers and shippers, local public transport 103. Given the strategic nature of transport in operator etc.). In addition, such public the CIP projects, the expected economic investments in strategic assets are likely and social benefits are generally very to include additional private investments high. CIP transport projects will have large in operations and maintenance, equipment positive impacts on growth by increasing purchase and in management. Improving trade, investments, and employment transport connectivity and reducing and removing economic externalities and transport costs will also largely contribute bottlenecks. to reviving Lebanon’s important tourism sector, be it in reducing connectivity between Lebanon and neighboring country, or as internal connectivity allowing tourists IMPACT ON TRADE to visit multiple sites outside Beirut. AND COMPETITIVENESS 106. Initiating large infrastructure invest- ments in Lebanon, will increase the 104. Investments in economic corridors in competitiveness of Lebanese firms and their Lebanon as planned in the CIP—such as in readiness for similar works in Syria and Iraq. ports, highways, railways and airports— This will further encourage international will allow Lebanon to play a major role as firms to use Lebanon as a hub for Syria’s a trade and transport hub in the region, a reconstruction. The investment in Transport role it had successfully played in the past. Economic Corridors as emphasized in the Lebanon represents an important gateway CIP (highways, ports, railways, etc.) will to the Mediterranean, Europe and beyond, therefore clearly enhance Lebanon’s trade especially given the constrained maritime and competitiveness. However, to increase access to many countries in the region such benefits, Lebanon needs to also look at particularly Syria (only 2 ports with limited parallel soft measures (such as procedures, capacity) and Iraq, and possibly beyond customs, border crossings) as well as better to include Iran and the GCC. However, the linkages between these transport corridors current poor infrastructure makes the cost and other ancillary economic activities of exporting goods from/through Lebanon TRANSPORT Table 12. Export/Import Costs (US$/ per container) Lebanon Middle East & Upper middle 45 North Africa income Export cost - port or airport supply chain 500 837 1285 Export cost - land supply chain 3000 1886 1607 Import cost - port or airport supply chain 3000 1688 1384 Import cost - land supply chain N/A 1131 1488 Source: World Bank Logistics Performance. to create actual economic corridors, as is The planned highways, roads and public being planned for the Northern Lebanon transport under the CIP will all contribute to Economic Corridor Project. reducing such economic distances. IMPACT ON REDUCING ECONOMIC IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT EXTERNALITIES 109. The Transport sector is one of the main employment generators in Lebanon. 107. Poor transport connectivity and high Currently, about 7 percent of Lebanon’s transport costs represent a large drag on labor force is employed in transport services the Lebanese economy. Various studies (truckers, taxis, port and airport). In put the economic cost of traffic congestion addition, a significant part of workers in the in Lebanon around 5 to 10 percent of GDP construction sector are actually working in annually. In addition, Lebanon has one the construction of transport infrastructure. of the worst road safety records with the This puts the total employment in transport economic cost of road crashes estimated infrastructure and services at at least in the 3 to 5 percent range. There are also 10 percent of total employment making additional transport costs such as vehicle the transport sector one of the largest operating costs due to poor road conditions employers in Lebanon especially for the (Lebanon’s roads rank 120 in term of poor, low skilled (construction workers, quality globally, one of the worst). While truck drivers, taxi drivers, etc.) and Syrian the CIP projects can’t totally eradicate refugees (mainly in construction, less such costs, they nevertheless will in services). Various studies show that substantially contribute to reducing such transport infrastructure generates most externalities, or at least curb their further employment among all infrastructure growth (especially public transport, road investments as a significant share of such rehabilitation, highways, etc.). investments (between 15 to 30 percent depending on type of works/projects) is spent on labor. In addition, significant local IMPACT ON SPATIAL supply chain activities are also generated Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon creating further employment opportunities. DEVELOPMENT, LAGGING It is very important to note that the narrative REGIONS AND LOCAL ECONOMIC of the CIP about infrastructure and job creation, in addition to the general/rough MARKETS methodology applied to produce such employment estimates, has been very much 108. Given Lebanon’s small geography, influenced by the Bank work/narrative on Lebanon’s economy could operate as one the Roads and Employment Project. inter-connected market from a spatial development point of view. Travel distances are generally small in Lebanon with most IMPACT ON SOCIAL INCLUSION of the country’s population being within a 100 km radius from Beirut, a typical 1 hour trip in normal conditions, which would 110. The CIP transport investments will benefit have allowed goods and people to move a large number of vulnerable groups. easily across the country and for firms and As highlighted above, CIP transport businesses to flourish in all its parts. Yet, investments will have significant impact 46 and due to poor transport connectivity, on the lagging regions, improving transport economic distances have been growing connectivity between such regions and the substantially as it sometimes takes more center through highways as well as within than 1 hr to travel only 20 km to Beirut. these regions through road rehabilitation. This has put the entire regions of the North, Transport externalities such as traffic Bekaa, and the South at large disadvantages accidents or health ailments from air as generally poorer and lagging regions. pollution disproportionally affect the poor due to high hospitalization costs and where complex projects have been broken the loss of important income providers. down into smaller projects, which make In addition, public transport programs sense economically, and which can be will reduce the economic and financial executed sequentially therefore improving transport costs, particularly for the technical feasibility. urban poor, as it is important to note that transport represent about 10 to 15 percent 113. The estimated costs are generally reason- of households’ expenditures. Improved able, although they appear on the low side. transport connectivity and reliable public Cost estimates derive from very preliminary transportation will also benefit several studies including pre-feasibility and other vulnerable groups such as women feasibility studies. In such studies, only high (independence of travel using public level cost items can be roughly estimated. transport with less harassment), the youth The real project costs are more certain and persons with disabilities. with detailed designs, especially for large infrastructure requiring soil investigation 111. The economic and social benefits of the and other detailed assessments. In most CIP investments will be large yet they will cases, the actual cost of these projects materialize only gradually over a few years. are higher than initially predicted, and Generally, the development and execution this is particularly the case in Lebanon of large infrastructure requires some years. given generally poor governance and This is particularly the case for Lebanon long implementation period of projects. where delays are common. Some projects Meanwhile, and on the benefits/revenue however, such as roads rehabilitation, can side, many studies overestimate benefits be executed within a relatively shorter for project justification. While this is fine to timeframe. encourage the government to go ahead with such projects given that they all seem of high strategic value, the feasibility figures C. Feasibility Assessment should be treated with caution when used for planning the sources of financing, and Readiness especially private sector/PPPs. 114. Most CIP transport projects require 112. The CIP transport projects have high substantial concessional public financing. technical and economic feasibility. As A major constraint to the development discussed above, the social and economic of Lebanon’s transport infrastructure is benefits of the CIP transport projects are the high cost of land and the inability very high. Meanwhile, all these projects of the government to finance large are technically feasible, yet they require land expropriations. The cost of land thorough study and preparation given expropriation for transport related projects their large scope and technical complexity, in the CIP is in the US$ 2 to 3 billion range, including some being implemented for a major expenditure. While part of this can the first time in Lebanon (BRT, railways, be financed by donors, it is usually up for large tunnels for Jounieh Bypass etc.). governments to finance land while donors Unfortunately, technical studies on most (and private sector) finance infrastructure. of these projects are not very far advanced Another limitation to having donor given the practice in Lebanon to wait for financing of land acquisition for highways TRANSPORT the confirmation of the financing of such and roads, is the different interpretation projects before undertaking detailed between Lebanese laws and donors’ and costly technical studies. This is requirements for compensation of land understandable given that some projects acquired for highway projects. In addition, 47 have been on the shelves for 50 years, yet most transport projects require public this represents a major hindrance in that sector financing for the infrastructure while project execution is largely delayed as many the private sector intervene during the important planning and execution studies operations and management (O&M) phase are generally deferred until financing is as further discussed below. secured. Nevertheless, the CIP transport projects are presented in a logical manner 115. Most CIP transport projects can have a This is particularly relevant for the A2 PPP dimension, especially for covering and Peripherique projects where land operations and maintenance. The airport expropriation requirements are over US$ terminal and Jounieh touristic port can be 1 billion. Given GoL’s difficulty in funding financed fully, or close to 100 percent, by the much smaller expropriations over the past private sector. The other transport projects decade, it remains uncertain if GoL will be are unlikely to be 100 percent feasible by able to acquire the required land for these the private sector yet most of the projects highways in the short term to allow the start can have some private financing, especially of infrastructure construction. Moreover, at later stages (equipment purchase, GoL is still studying the modalities to operations and maintenance). Port, execute such projects (public procurement, railways and public transport development BOT, in sections or together…) which will generally require that the public sector also take some time to produce reliable pays for the infrastructure while the private studies to inform such decisions. It is re- sector contributes to equipment finance iterated that these projects are of very (buses, trains, port equipment) and O&M. strategic importance to the sector and the Highways generally require that the land is economy, the discussion below is primarily financed by the public sector, with some on the timing/phasing of these investments highway sections implemented as BOT by and potential modalities for their execution. the private sector (through tolls, if traffic Below three different scenarios for the allows it), while for others the private execution of these highways are provided: sector can only finance the maintenance a. Scenario 1: Government immediately of infrastructure. Poverty and equity starts acquiring land and proceeds issues need to be also considered when with construction in phases/sections. introducing PPPs, especially for highway For instance, the government imme- links in Akkar (poorest region of Lebanon) diately, issues required laws/ or in the South. decrees and financing mechanisms 116. Across all sectors, Lebanon has currently (compensations, coupons or zoning, etc.) major institutional constraints and low while acquiring the land gradually implementing agencies’ capacity to over a period of time (such as over absorb and execute the large investments 10 years). Under this scenario the Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon under the CIP. Major CIP investments are proposed phasing by GoL seems in 3 sectors, namely Transport, Water reasonable (conditional on the laws/ and Energy. The relevant institutions in decrees issued within a year time or so these sectors are primarily 3: the Ministry and financing made available for land of Public Works and Transport and some expropriation). This scenario assumes dependent agencies (weak capacity), the the government will proceed with Ministry of Energy and Water and smaller the construction of this highway in water utilities (weak to moderate capacity) segments under a public procurement and CDR (moderate to strong capacity, scheme (this scenario assumes however already overstretched). The private investors are less interested Lebanese government, with support from in individual segments) Under this donors, need to have a strategy on how scenario, the private sector can be to address implementation challenges brought in later under a different PPP especially with select key implementing scheme (not BOT), such as a concession agencies, particularly CDR, on how to for O&M of the highway after its ramp up quickly and efficiently their construction. This scenario would implementation capacity. Some “outside imply, however, less mobilization of 48 the box” thinking is required to accelerate private capital investment and heavier the implementation of the CIP given that costs for the government; even simple projects in Lebanon take many b. Scenario 2: Government immediately years to execute. starts acquiring land and decides to execute project/construction as a BOT. 117. The phasing and implementation of Under this scenario, it is less likely large projects with significant land that the private sector would invest in expropriation requires particular attention. smaller sections before the full land is acquired (as financial returns and CIP can be executed within the existing traffic volumes will become much more institutional and policy framework given interesting when the full project is that it addresses major, long lasting and completed), which means construction strategic capacity constraints in the sector. is not likely to start before a few years Yet, reforms can be advanced in parallel and hence the project can be executed in order to accelerate such programs and in Cycles 2 and 3 under this scenario. ensure the sustainability and efficiency of Alternatively, the private sector could the sector. Important reform areas for the be offered some individual sections sector, in relation to the CIP, are highlighted that might be profitable as BOTs, below: which would advance some of the a. Strategic Planning: The development construction works to Cycle 1, however of a national Transport Strategy and such alternative seems unlikely and Action Plan that: should be subject to further study. » covers all modes of transport While this scenario (BOT) is likely to (Ports, Airports, Roads, Railways, result in delays in the project execution, Public Transport); its advantage is that it would reduce » prioritize investments within the the government contribution to the sector as well as key policy actions; infrastructure CAPEX as the private and sector could bring in some capital. » becomes the roadmap for con- c. Scenario 3: Government gets delayed secutive ministers to implement in acquiring the required land in contrast to current interests by (unavailability of funds, political and ministers in only short term projects administrative challenges, objections such as road rehabilitation. from land/house owners, etc.). Given Lebanon’s track record in facing b. Sector Governance: The reform and difficulties with land expropriations strengthening of sector institutions. for even smaller projects, the large This could include: financial resources required, and the » The creation of a national public difficulty to remove some encroachers transport authority with a clear along the right of way, this scenario mandate to plan and execute all appears more likely. Under this public transport activities. This scenario, it is not expected that any will allow the consolidation of construction can start before 4 to 5 various important public transport years or so which means the initiation activities from various existing of these projects is likely to be in entities (Ministry of Transport, Cycles 2 and 3 at best. Ministry of Interior, municipalities, etc.) under one entity; 118. Given the above discussion, and in the » The reform of the governance absence of a clear GoL vision and decision structure of the major ports, of i) ways and mechanisms to finance the namely Beirut and Tripoli. The required land expropriation and ii) the governance structure of Beirut Port modality of execution (eg. BOT for full is a bit unique and follows a very highway, sections in phases as public old model, while the Tripoli Port sector financed or BOT for separate does not have an active Board of sections), it is less likely that parts of these TRANSPORT Directors; highways will be executed under Cycle 1 » The strengthening of the planning of this program, but rather under Cycles 2 for road rehabilitation and and 3. maintenance and the creation of a 49 proper and transparent road asset management system; D. Reform Needs » The review of the governance structure of the Civil Aviation sector to promote further investments in 119. The execution of the CIP transport airports, including setting up of priorities should go hand-in-hand with some important reforms in the sector. The a regulatory body, and to further d. CIP, Sector Financing and liberalize the civil aviation market Sustainability in Lebanon; and » Fiscal/budget: There should be » The strengthening of the more transparency between implementation capacity of sector transport sector fiscal revenues institutions, namely the MPWT, and its allocated expenditures: CDR, Higher Council of Privatization, the sector contributes to about 15 the Railways and Public Transport percent of fiscal/budget revenues, Authority and other sector agencies. yet it is not visible given multiple sources (fuel excise, port dues, c. Implementation Capacity: airport dues, vehicle registration, » The build-up of CDR and Ministries’ licenses…). There should be better capacity and staffing; established linkages between » The review of CDR internal taxes and the way expenditures processes, as well as relevant are planned, especially in transport ministries, to accelerate and where there are no/little operational streamline execution; revenues (unlike telecom, water and » The follow up by senior decision electricity where users pay direct makers on the progress in project charges). In most countries, a share execution to drive forward the of the fuel excise is used for the projects and remove possible financing of Roads and Highways. political and administrative This could be either in the form of bottlenecks; a dedicated tax, or through proper » The review and discussion budgeting processes. regarding CDR priority projects to » Pricing and user charges. This achieve more balance between the includes the possibility of roles of CDR and Ministries, giving introducing and increasing direct CDR fewer yet more strategic, transport user charges, such as large, and complex projects and increasing parking revenues in less of the small projects (such as Beirut, increasing public transport small municipal projects, small and fares or charges, and introducing scattered infrastructure, etc.); tolls on select highways. Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon » The allocation of funding to » PPPs. Most of the planned undertake detailed studies, from investment could have a PPP day one, for all the strategic dimension and such potential projects approved in the CIP without should be assessed, be it in the waiting for actually securing the CAPEX of the projects where financing of such projects. This possible or for operations and will allow execution to proceed maintenance to ensure financial quickly as soon as financing is sustainability. available. The inclusion in the CIP » Real estate valuation and the use of TP19, Feasibility Studies of Major of real estate revenues/taxes to Projects, is welcomed. finance the sector, particularly land acquisition. The government needs a clear strategy for how to finance land acquisition in the transport sector. An important instrument being discussed is the use of real estate taxes and/or rights to 50 finance such infrastructure (such as giving higher zoning options for people close to highways or impacted by expropriations). Real estate financing mechanisms could include taxes, zoning “coupons”, shares in Special Purpose Vehicle (if a PPP), provision of alternatives in kind (such as housing in other areas if available), change of zoning allowances along corridors, and/or cash payments. Without a structured approach for land acquisition for highways, it will be difficult to advance this highly important economic sector. Table 13: Transportation Projects Estimated Land Ref Project Cost Exprop. (MUS$) (MUS$) TP1 Dbaye-Nahr Ibrahim Motorway (A2) - Phase 1 247.0 125.0 TP1 Dbaye-Nahr Ibrahim Motorway (A2) - Phase 2 330.0 166.0 TP1 Dbaye-Nahr Ibrahim Motorway (A2) - Phase 3 247.0 125.0 TP2 Beirut Peripheric - Phase 1 232.0 254.0 TP2 Beirut Peripheric - Phase 2 310.0 338.0 TP2 Beirut Peripheric - Phase 3 232.0 254.0 Bus Rapid Transit System - Greater Beirut Public Transport TP10 500.0 N/A Project Rehabilitation and development of Beirut Rafic Hariri Airport - TP16 500.0 N/A Phase 1 TP5 Pan Arab Highway - Akkar 150.0 50.0 TP7 Beirut-Damascus Highway Completion 400.0 100.0 TP11 Tripoli-Syrian Boarder Railway 90.0 0.0 TP4 Northen Coastal Highway - Beirut Entrance 180.0 N/A TP18 Service road for Coastal Highway, Phase 2 112.0 202.0 TP18 Service road for Coastal Highway, Phase 1 38.0 68.0 TP6 Touliqiyeh - Ras Baalbak - Syrian Boarder Highway 110.0 55.0 TP9 Upgrading of Road Network in Greater Beirut 380.0 50.0 Rehabilitation of Roads in Mount Lebanon - Classified and TP8/a 509.0 N/A Unclassified (Municipal) Roads TP12 Touristic Port in Jounieh 62.0 N/A Rehabilitation and Development of Rene Mouawad Airport in TP16/a 100.0 N/A Akkar TP3 Southern Coastal Highway (Saida Bypass and Sour Link) 450.0 150.0 TP14 Expansion of Saida Port 60.0 N/A TP15 Touristic Port in Sour 30.0 N/A TP19 Feasibility Studies for Major Projects 25.0 0.0  TP20 Tripoli Port, Phase 2 150.0 0.0 51 MANAGEMENT V. SOLID WASTE Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 52 The CIP contains one entry for a single Cycle 1 tendering process was organized by the (2018-2021) investment program in the solid waste government for new waste management sector: “Solid Waste Management to cover all contracts across the country. On August Lebanon including collection, sorting, treatment 24, 2015, the Ministry of Environment and landfill sites” for a total of US$ 1,400 million. announced the winners of the bids, most Further discussions gave more insight into the of whom were seen as having close ties to investment program, which foresees investments the political elite. The perceived incessant in centralized waste treatment for five regional corruption at the expense of quality of waste ‘sheds’: (i) three Waste to Energy (WtE) services triggered a series of protests and facilities in the urbanized coastal regions (Beirut, civil disobedience measures targeting the the North around Tripoli and South Lebanon ruling political class with emphasis on around Saida/Zahrani), and (ii) more traditional corruption and incompetence. schemes based on composting and sanitary landfilling for the more rural parts of Lebanon in the north Akkar area and for the Bekaa valley. The WtE schemes would require three times US$ LEBANON’S INTEGRATED SOLID 375 million and the two rural schemes together WASTE MANAGEMENT around US$ 175 million. In addition, roughly US$ 100 million would be required to cleanup the 962 illegal dumpsites of Lebanon and for some the 122. In April 2012, the Council of Ministers rehabilitation into sanitary landfills. This amounts approved Decree 8003 on Integrated to a total of US$ 1,400 million. Of these projects, Municipal Solid Waste Management, which the WBG assesses that 4 (at a cost of around US$ has been awaiting parliamentary approval 650 million) are important for the first Cycle of since. The Draft Law promotes an integrated 2018-2021. These comprise projects: SW1.1, SW2, and proper management of municipal waste SW3.1 and SW3.2. The costing for these projects by encouraging waste minimization, source seems reasonable. These projects can be done in separation, recycling, energy recovery, large part by the private sector. effective treatment facilities, etc. 123. On January 11, 2018, the Lebanese cabinet endorsed the Policy Summary A. General Comments on Integrated Solid Waste Management. The policy summary calls for the Ministry of Environment (MoE) to survey the 120. Solid waste disposal is a persistent and financial and administrative capacities critical issue in Lebanon. Before the Syrian of every municipality in Lebanon and crisis, only 53 percent of municipal solid assess their ability to manage their waste waste was disposed of in the country’s without government intervention. If only two sanitary landfills: Naameh and municipalities are uncapable or unwilling Zahlé. The remaining was disposed of in to treat their waste, they would be linked unsanitary landfills and hundreds of open to the centralized solution, from which dumps, which is a main source of pollution the CIP solid waste projects are derived. to air, watersheds and coastal zones. The Solid Waste Management In addition, the decision also includes a closure of the over-extended Naameh number of short-term measures to improve landfill in July 2015 resulted in the worst conditions and expand the capacity of some environmental crisis in Lebanon’s recent existing disposal facilities; and increase history. composting and waste sorting capacity to 121. In the summer of 2015, a visually reduce waste for disposal. The decision powerful garbage crisis that left piles puts implementation of these measures in of it uncollected on the streets of the hands of CDR. 53 Lebanon galvanized sizable popular 124. The CIP contains one entry for a single demonstrations. Garbage began piling up Cycle 1 (2018-2021) investment program since July 17, 2015 when the Naameh landfill, in the solid waste sector: “Solid Waste which served as the primary landfill for the Management to cover all Lebanon including country, was closed without an alternate collection, sorting, treatment and landfill site being designated due to opposition sites” for a total of US$ 1,400 million. from local communities. A nontransparent Further discussions gave more insight into the investment program, which has ASSESSING CIP WASTE the nature of a national sector roadmap, based on feasibility studies and a basic TREATMENT PROJECTS investment program that will need further work for the development of the regional 126. There is a strong rationale to organize investment schemes. Roughly, the program solid waste management in Lebanon with foresees investments in centralized waste regional schemes, initiated by the Council treatment for five regional waste ‘sheds’: of Development and Reconstruction (i) three waste sheds in the urbanized (CDR) and managed by private operators. coastal regions (Beirut, the North around Lebanon has a history of high cost waste Tripoli and South Lebanon around Saida/ services and engagement with the private Zahrani area) each managing around 1,200 sector in waste management operations, t/d of municipal waste, with a WtE facility mainly waste collection and disposal. at the heart of the system, with the Beirut These are conditions that support the WtE being developed through long-term proposed private sector financing and concessions to the private sector, and the operations of these facilities. Given the other two under deliberation; and (ii) more challenges, particularly land issues, to traditional schemes based on composting develop local outlets for waste disposal and sanitary landfilling for two waste sheds and scale benefits, it makes good sense for the more rural parts of Lebanon in the to develop regional schemes and for the North and for the Bekaa valley. central government through CDR to lead 125. The proposed cost estimates for this program. investments seem adequate. Details have 127. The choice of costly waste-to-energy not been provided, but the rough estimates facilities is driven by challenges in for investments as indicated are in line Lebanon to develop sanitary landfills, with international benchmarks. The WtE which in general (internationally) are schemes would require three times US$ 375 lower costs options. Waste-to-energy million and the two rural schemes together schemes normally are substantially more around US$ 175 million. In addition, expensive than sanitary landfilling, with roughly US$ 100 million would be required the latter being the preferred option for to cleanup the 962 illegal dumpsites of most countries that have similar GDP/ Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon Lebanon and rehabilitation of sanitary capita levels. It is recognized, however, landfills. These amounts give a total of that landfilling in Lebanon is challenging US$ 1,400 million. The development of the due to a lack of land. Also related to these five regional schemes is expected to take challenges, a large part of waste in the four years. Given their obligations, (local country, particularly in the Beirut area, government) LGs will remain responsible for already faces cost levels of US$ 100/ton waste collection (as in the current situation, and more, which are comparable to costs of largely contracted to private operators) waste incineration. and have the option to opt out of these regional schemes that will be developed 128. Regional waste schemes, and particularly and operated under the direct control of the waste-to-energy investments, take time central government. It is expected that most to develop; current initiatives are at LGs will choose to bring their waste to the the early planning stage. The proposed regional facilities. Subject to participating program envisages a period of four years LGs, the total program would cover around to develop the regional schemes. This 90 percent of waste generated in Lebanon. seems achievable, though on the optimistic side, assuming there are no setbacks 54 due to land issues (not in my backyard, NIMBY) and options to mobilize public finance for investments if needed. For the WtE schemes, international experience suggests that even without major setbacks in financing and planning, a period of 5-6 years is more realistic. 129. Contingency planning. The development 132. Feed-in tariffs. For waste incineration, of WtE is complex and at the current electricity feed-in tariffs (FIT) are critical development stage, without a solid and may even generate more revenues than market test, it is difficult to foresee what gate fees for waste delivery at the facility. challenges lie ahead in contractual and The program assumes a FIT of US$ 0.1075/ financing arrangements with investors, in kWh to be paid by EdL. The tariff looks planning (ESIA, public consultation) and reasonable, but it is not clear whether it is in operational and financial arrangements underpinned by an assessment of economic to be made with the participating LGs. It is benefits (premiums for renewable energy) important to plan for waste management in comparison to current costs of power in the period up to the operationalization generation. It also needs to be confirmed of the five regional facilities and include that long-term arrangements can be made provisions for set-backs. for FITs. 130. Lebanon is locking in into waste 133. In terms of job creation, the proposed incineration and treatment, with limited investments will generate jobs during the focus on waste recycling and waste construction periods and for operation of reduction. In high income countries, the related facilities. On average, it can be incineration has been a key element expected that several hundreds of jobs are in waste systems to reduce waste for created at each of the five regional facilities. disposal. However, it is regarded as a lower level solution in the waste management hierarchy and recent developments (‘circular economy’) see a substantial shift B. Projects from waste incineration to waste recycling and reduction. With the proposed program, 134. SW1.1 – Beirut Waste to Energy Facility Lebanon is locking in into waste incineration • The scheme to process 1,200 ton/day for decades. The adopted strategy is that municipal solid waste has an estimated increases in waste generation due to cost of US$ 375 million, which seems economic development and demographic reasonable. trends would be managed through waste • According to government, a site has recycling and reduction in the future. been identified, a prequalification 131. Financial sustainability, tariff system tender has resulted in a shortlist of and financial arrangements with LGs. In potential bidders and it is suggested addition to the US$ 1.4 billion investments, that arrangement for feed-in tariffs the schemes will need roughly US$ 150- can be made. Some key transaction 200 million per year to operate. At present, elements still need to be developed and there are no development arrangements it appears that the prequalification has to have these costs covered by waste not yet performed a substantial market generators (households) or the LGs. There test for the scheme based on a 25 years is thinking of putting a tariff system in place concession. • Based on government information, this Solid Waste Management based on electricity consumption, and possibly linking billing to electricity billing. regional facility is most advanced and Tariffs systems take time to develop and should be made ready for tender in the have social implications. It is critical for the coming 6-12 months. success of the regional investments that 135. SW1.2, 1.3 – Tripoli Area WtE Facility, improvement in services go hand in hand South Lebanon Coastal Area WtE Facility with cost recovery. In the next two years, policies are needed to address financial • Each of the two schemes is expected to process 1,200 ton/day municipal solid 55 and operational arrangements with LGs (put-or-pay, bring the waste at a fee, or waste, with an estimated cost of US$ otherwise pay engagement charges) and 375 million per facility, which seems the establishment of consumer waste reasonable. fees. • These schemes appear less developed than the Beirut scheme and to gain experience it is recommended to have at least one to two years delay in tendering these facilities after the Beirut tender and it seems feasible to find private has been concluded with financial investors to finance, develop and closure. operate the facilities. 136. SW2 – National cleanup program for • The schemes still need substantial closure and rehabilitation of waste dump planning and preparation but are sites less complicated than the WtE deals. Therefore tendering within the next • This project is expected to cleanup more two years should be possible but than 950 sites at an estimated cost of a comprehensive market test is US$ 100 million. The cost estimate recommended and a sound financing is very rough but as such seems basis for operating costs needs to reasonable. be developed, which could be more • It’s unlikely that this work can be challenging in these regions than in the financed from private funding, unless, urbanized areas with WtE concessions. perhaps for a number of sites, it can be linked to the other 5 projects. • Works can start rapidly for a number of sites, but it is likely that for a large C. Reform Needs number of sites, they can only be closed when alternative capacity for treatment 138. Most prominent reform needs are: of disposal has been put in place. Hence, a. Development of a tariff system for a phased approach is recommended. waste generators (households); b. Policies to support capacity develop- 137. SW3.1, 3.2 – Akkar Valley Regional Facility ment with local governments for sector and Bekaa Valley Regional Facility planning and operations; • These two schemes are expected to c. Defining feed-in tariffs for electricity process 920 and 280 ton/day municipal from waste processing facilities based solid waste, respectively. The total on long-term economic benefits. estimated cost is US$ 175 million for both facilities which seems reasonable. • Technology for these two regional Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon schemes is mainly sorting and composting to reduce waste to disposal and the development and operation of sanitary landfills. The various investments of these two schemes should be as much as possible combined in two integrated contracts Table 14: Solid Waste Management Projects Estimated Land Ref Project Cost Exprop. (MUS$) (MUS$) 56 SW1.1 Waste to energy facility 375.0 None SW1.2 Waste to energy facility 375.0 None SW1.3 Waste to energy facility 375.0 None SW2 Rehabilitation of dumpsites throughout Lebanon 100.0 None SW3.1 Rural sorting, composting, and sanitary landfills 87.5 None SW3.2 Rural sorting, composting, and sanitary landfills 87.5 None VI. TELECOMMUNICATIONS The CIP contains 8 separately identified highest debt-to-GDP.20 Telecom transfers to investment projects in the telecoms sector for a the government averaged 3.4 percent of GDP total of US$ 700 million, that can be implemented annually over the past decade. It is also a over the first Cycle covering the period 2018- rare source of hard currency, noting that the 2021. Of these projects, the WBG assesses that foreign currency-denominated portion of 5 are of strategic importance to the sector. These public debt is equivalent to about 56 percent comprise projects: TL1, TL2, TL3, TL5 and TL8 (at of GDP. Telecom reforms should proceed a cost of around US$ 410 million). Of these, TL1 with caution as the potential contingent (Fiber to the Office and Fiber to the Home) can liabilities for the public sector are be done in large part by the private sector, but appreciable. important legal, regulatory and policy changes need to be made. The estimated costs are generally reasonable, although more information is needed on some projects. The telecoms sector B. Comments on in Lebanon is the second biggest income earner for the government, making it a vital source of projects 1-8 financing for a country with the third highest debt- to-GDP ratio in the world. Telecom reforms should 142. TL1 – Phase 2 - Fiber to the Office and Fiber proceed with caution as the potential contingent to the Home (US$ 100 million): liabilities for the public sector are appreciable. • In most countries where broadband access is open to competition, fiber to the home or the office services and infrastructure in economically active A. General Comments areas is carried out by the private sector. Public funding or different forms 139. Most investments go in the right direction: of interventions come at a later stage Modernize Lebanon’s broadband and when the private sector is not willing to digital platform infrastructure, providing invest further in less lucrative segments faster internet and cloud based services of the market. On the other hand, in CIP to government, businesses and consumers TL1 the planned network investment in Lebanon. The following assessment is (Fiber to the Home and Fiber to the a “static” analysis and the WBG stresses Office), reaches the final user. Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon on the importance of considering broader • The investment estimate is reasonable, policy reform in the sector. and consistent with a similar analysis 140. The plan also includes investments to done by the task team that would result enhance MoT’s core corporate functions, in an investment of US$ 120 mln to such as service delivery and billing US$ 150 mln to build infrastructure in (TL2), or to improve the ability of the economically viable, densely populated State to regulate and monitor the market, areas. such as in areas like surveillance and 143. TL2 – Phase 2 – Core Network and IMS (IP spectrum management (TL4 and TL5). multimedia subsystem) (US$ 90 million): Complementary interventions in capacity • This investment is planned as part of building and institutional and regulatory MoT’s upgraded infrastructure and is reforms are needed to fully realize the one of the key investments to alleviate impact of this investment plan. demand for DSL services in the short 141. The telecoms sector in Lebanon is the and medium term and to improve quality second biggest income earner for the of domestic internet network. government making it a vital source of 58 financing for a country with the third 20 Gross public debt is estimate at 153 percent of GDP, end-2017, with only Japan and Greece higher globally. Debt service for the government reaches about 10 percent of GDP annually, consuming about half of domestic revenues. As a result, the government suffers from a long term and sizable fiscal deficit, which in 2016 registered 9.6 percent of GDP. • This type of investment should be 145. TL4 – Phase 2 – Security System (US$ 60 carried out by the private sector. million): However, in the case of Lebanon, • Investment in cybersecurity, including awaiting reforms that allow competition, Deep Packet Inspection, allows this investment can be made by the authorities to intercept and decode public sector, as it is essential to communications, intercept illegal increase overall internet speed and activities and ensure the safety of user quality in Lebanon. information. • The investment estimate appears • The implementation of these systems reasonable. requires coordination and cooperation 144. TL3 – Expansion of international capacity between different institutions. More (US$ 50 million) information is needed on this subject to assess the project implementation • Currently, all international backbone plan, scope, cost and readiness. communication is handled by MoT. More information is needed to assess • Further information is needed to assess whether this capacity has reached the investment estimate. its limits and what are the options to 146. TL5 – Phase 2 – Spectrum Monitoring (US$ increase the international capacity 20 million): available for Lebanon. • More information is needed to • Since the government owns and understand what are the existing operates the international gateways spectrum monitoring tools available in Lebanon, it is important to consider to the Ministry and to the regulator in partnership with the private sector at order to better assess this project. the investment and operational level. • Spectrum monitoring is commonly It is important to induce competition in carried out by independent regulatory this segment, to have a greater impact agencies, and therefore it is on the market, in terms of available recommended that this investment is bandwidth and price of capacity. Prices made to reinforce the capacities of the were reduced but are still high compared TRA. This is particularly important in with fully open markets. Lebanon where the government and • It is important to notice, however, that MoT are also users of spectrum and even if the potential for competition in therefore an independent institution is this market segment is considerable, better placed to monitor and regulate the adverse impact in terms of fiscal the use of spectrum. flows is also the highest in this • The estimate seems on the high side. segment. If competition were to be introduced, the private sector would 147. TL6 – National Cloud Platform (US$ 200 quickly gain market shares, prices million): would drop dramatically, but demand • This is an important investment that elasticity would not be sufficient to is usually undertaken as a Public- compensate for the price drop. The Private Partnership (PPP) to provide TELECOMMUNICATIONS combined impact of revenues realized a common cloud based infrastructure by private sector operators and lower to the government, with data center margins arising from competition, and disaster recovery capabilities. It would mean a sharp reduction of fiscal is important to: i) help government revenues from this specific segment. explore PPP options, as not all of the • The investment estimate appears investment needed should come from reasonable but more information is the budget and ii) prepare an adequate 59 needed to determine the cost of the institutional environment to implement backbone upgrade capacity. the reform. Change in management is more important than hardware in the implementation of cloud based solutions. • A high-level comparison with other the GSM network is needed at a time countries shows that the investment when the industry is clearly moving to needed for this project is over- 4G and 5G solutions. estimated, however, more information on the scope of the project is required to corroborate this finding. • The cost for this component is very high; C. Complementary Policy it is unclear what scope of investment would justify this cost estimate and Interventions whether least cost options were 150. Lebanon has a unique opportunity to considered. develop a new comprehensive policy to 148. TL7 – Phase 2 – IOT, Lora and WiFi Network address the various bottlenecks affecting (US$ 30 million): the growth and development of broadband infrastructure and services. The main • Additional information is needed on the opportunity is to leverage on Lebanon’s objectives, design and implementation education and skill level of population, by of this project. This is particularly the providing modern broadband infrastructure case for the IoT and Lora part of the and ICT applications. This would boost the components. The investment, the competitiveness of the service sector, and sources of funding and the reforms create jobs and income opportunities for needed will therefore depend on the the skilled workers. scope and objectives of this project. • Investment in public WiFi networks 151. In embracing this much-needed reform, is important to extend connectivity Lebanon will need to pay attention to three in areas with poor access to internet. important factors: Similarly, public WiFi networks can • account for the fiscal implications; provide access to segments of the • manage risks and opportunities to make society that cannot afford personal sure that the benefits of broadband or residential internet subscriptions. reach to different regions and income In these cases, public intervention is and social groups; and warranted since private investment • avoid the emergence of oligopolies in Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon may not be profitable. The deployment of public WiFi spots should therefore the sector. be strategic and targeted to the areas 152. There should be a unified vision for the ICT where residents have limited access sector and a clear consensus on policy, and to important institutions such as without which sustainable development for schools, universities, parks, etc. the sector cannot be realized. In particular, • Additional information is needed to sector policy should include: determine whether this investment • the identification of specific targets estimate is reasonable. for broadband (high speed Internet) 149. TL8 – GSM network (US$ 150 million): deployment for the overall population of Lebanon; • This is an investment to upgrade the capabilities of MoT mobile infra- • options to proceed toward sector structure for both networks. reform, including the introduction of competition and private sector • Ideally, this type of investment should involvement in the sector and a be carried out by the private sector. clear strategy to address poor and However, in the case of Lebanon, undeserved areas and disadvantaged 60 while awaiting reforms that allow households; competition, this investment can be made by the public sector. • the development of an institutional reform plan, with clear roles and • More information on the scope of this attributions for the different sector project is needed to assess the relevance actors; of this investment and how reasonable it is. It is unclear why an expansion of • the assessment of the fiscal and growth impact of different reform scenarios. SOME REFORM NEEDS: to determine the number of players, through competition and consolidation; • A uniform revenue sharing agreement: 153. At present, the government has authorized different DSPs have different two DSPs to build fiber using MoT’s revenue sharing agreements with the passive infrastructure. In addition, other government (ranging from 20 to 40 DSPs have also expressed their interest to percent of the revenues); a revenue invest. For this reason, the government is sharing agreement impacts the preparing a standardized license, to bring business plan of an operator, that will all operators on the same level playing either limit investment or increase field. This is a good step, and needs to be the final price for the customer, or established quickly, before one DSP gets a combination of both; this is not an important first mover advantage on a desirable. specific CO. The terms of the license are particularly straightforward and the text can be quickly introduced. The harmonized license framework can be used as a chance to strengthen the conditions of the DSP licenses while creating a level playing field. 154. Subject to Shura Council review and confirmation (presently in progress), gorvernment to establish a harmonized license framework for internet operators that should include: • No limits on the number of DSPs authorized to lay down fiber (all DSPs meeting certain conditions are authorized, as in the class license regime); • No minimum investment obligation: the successful examples of Eastern Europe show that small and micro operators can be a formidable force behind the development of broadband; it should be the market, and not the government, TELECOMMUNICATIONS 61 Table 15: Telecommunications Projects Estimated Land Ref Project Cost Exprop. (MUS$) (MUS$) Phase 2 FTT(X) - FTTO: Fiber -To-The-Office TL1 100 None - FTTH: Fiber-To-The-Home Phase 7 FTT (X) infrastructure TL2 Phase 2 - Core Network and IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) 90 None TL3 Expansion of international connectivity 50 None TL4 Phase 2 Security System 60 None TL5 Phase 2 Spectrum Monitoring 20 None TL6 National Cloud Platform 200 None TL7 Phase 2 IOT, Lora and WiFi Network 30 None TL8 GSM network 150 None Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 62 Tourism & Heritage, Creativity & Knowledge 63 VII. TOURISM & HERITAGE, CREATIVITY & KNOWLEDGE The CIP contains 11 separately identified require a total investment of US$ 264 investment projects in the sector for a total of US$ million and are planned to be implemented 264 million, to be implemented over the Cycles 1 over Cycles 1 and 2. They are components and 2, covering the period 2018-2026. Of these of larger strategies that could unlock projects, the WBG assesses that 7 projects are of employment in fast growing sectors of the high priority, with implementation starting in Cycle Lebanese economy. These projects are the 1, 2018-2021 (at a total cost of around US$ 191 result of a screening exercise carried out million). These high priority projects comprise: CH2 by the Government of Lebanon in close (Cinema Industry), CH3 (Theater), CH5 (Scientific consultations with public and private and Educational Centers), CH7 (Arts General), CH9 stakeholders. The 11 projects have been (Historic Cities), CH10 (Heritage, Archeological identified based on their potential to have Sites, and Surroundings) and CH11 (Museums). a high catalytic potential to unlock further These projects can be implemented with the private sector investment. While certain involvement of the private sector and some can projects in high-value added services be set up as PPPs, with adjustments to the current can be implemented by the private sector legal, regulatory and policy framework. The cost alone, the 11 projects included in the CIP estimates are reasonable, country capacity in would require upfront concessional public these areas is sound, and the projects build on financing. These projects can contribute to previous results the country has achieved. the removal of bottlenecks and strengthen the enabling environment for the private sector to thrive, in economic sectors where A. Introduction the country demonstrated capacity to achieve results. Some of the 11 projects may benefit from the application of the 155. The 11 projects proposed in the CIP new PPP law passed by the Parliament of could play a pivotal role in spurring local Lebanon in August 2017, provided that economic development, in particular in some legal, regulatory and policy measures lagging regions. The World Bank Group are introduced to adjust the regulatory team that reviewed the CIP found that the framework to the specific nature of these 11 projects prioritized by the Government of projects. In general, the proposed 11 Lebanon are beneficial to high-value added projects seem to be reasonably costed services that constitute the backbone of the and they have a generally high level of Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon Lebanese economy. They are related to a readiness. larger economic sector that can be defined as High-Value Added Services, which includes Tourism & Heritage and Creativity & Knowledge. Experience to date in Lebanon B. Economic Relevance has shown that supporting knowledge and leveraging heritage assets in cities 157. Tourism based on heritage assets is a improves local economic development and traditionally strong pillar of the Lebanese job creation, especially in secondary and economy. Lebanon turned its diversity tertiary cities in lagging regions, enhances into an asset: Lebanese cities are among the livability for local communities in an the oldest continuously inhabited areas inclusive manner, and attracts significant in the world. The richness of the melting private sector investment. Supplementing pot of communities in Lebanon is one conventional models of knowledge and the most representative tracts of the heritage-based activities with new forms country and has historically been a driver of activities based on intangible culture of innovation. Lebanon, not accidentally, and contemporary creativity can a have is the country where the first alphabet 64 significant contribution to economic growth of the humankind was invented. Before and job generation. the Lebanese Civil War, Beirut was widely regarded as “The Paris of the Middle East” 156. The 11 projects identified by the or also “The Pearl of the Middle East,” cited Government are aligned with existing as the Capital of Levantine Mediterranean sector strategies, for which the culture. Consequently, tourism in Lebanon Government has shown commitment and has always been a major contributor to capacity to achieve results. The 11 projects the economy. From Stone Age settlements to Phoenician city-states, from Roman 160. The challenge for the future is about temples to rock-cut hermitages, from enhancing tourism-related benefits for the Crusader Castles to Mamluk mosques overall country, contributing to developing and Ottoman hammams, heritage sites new destinations, starting from secondary of global significance are displayed all and tertiary cities inland, which all possess across the country reflecting ancient and unique attractions (e.g. Anjar, Baalbek, modern world history. This has been widely Zahle, Rashaya, to name a few). This recognized by the international community: would have the positive effects of bringing with 5 UNESCO World Heritage Sites, the tourism spending outside the capital, country has the highest density of these in regions that have been so far lagging sites globally compared to its population. behind, and serve as a driver to enhance service delivery, in communities that so 158. Contribution of tourism to the country GDP far have been relatively more isolated and is estimated at 25 percent, which is by far excluded. As a service industry, tourism is above the world average of 14 percent, labor intensive and does not require high above any other country in the Middle skills: with 1 job created for every new East and twice as a much a prime tourism 12 tourists. Investment in the livability of destination like Italy (10 percent). Despite secondary and tertiary cities would also elements of fragility due to the regional serve an effective measure to enhance context, and fluctuations in the sector, service delivery for local communities as tourism remained a strong employment well as open them up to visitors, with the generating sector, especially for low-skilled dual benefit of improving living conditions workers, a factor that turns the sector into for local communities and making these a robust poverty reduction mechanism. places more attractive destinations for The sector accounts for 24 percent of total visitors, while supporting local economic employment in Lebanon. Before the impact development in the whole value chain. of the Syrian crisis, the number of visitors reached 2.5 million per year (2010). Soon 161. Creativity and knowledge have a growing afterwards, numbers declined, and lately, relevance for the Lebanese economy. Owing due to enhanced efforts for the stability of to its liberal political system, drive for the country, the trend reversed back into freedom, diverse community and cultural the positive. background, and its entrepreneurial young population, Lebanon has been home 159. Further growth in heritage and tourism to successful experiences in Creativity can distribute benefits to lagging regions. & Knowledge, with the highest growth With the right interventions of the public potential among Middle Eastern countries. sector, private investment in tourism has These experiences include television Tourism & Heritage, Creativity & Knowledge been traditionally high. As an example, in broadcasting, advertising services, 2012 Foreign Direct Investments in tourism cinema production and post-production, reached a total of US$ 1.3 billion. However, publishing, music production and new the majority of tourism related initiatives emerging and fast-growing markets such targeted coastal areas in and close to as digital media. From an economic stand Greater Beirut, due to better accessibility point, the sector in Lebanon has a turnover and infrastructure. The Government of of US$ 1 billion, with about 400 active Lebanon recently completed a major project businesses, employing 4.5 percent of the (Cultural Heritage and Urban Development Lebanese labor force, particularly skilled Projects, US$ 120 million), started after the youth. With a contribution of 4.8 percent conclusion of the Civil War, which focused to the country’s GDP and an added value on 5 cities: Baalbek, Tripoli, Byblos, Saida, generated of around 55 percent, the sector and Tyre. The project supported targeted places Lebanon at the top of Middle Eastern 65 interventions that removed bottlenecks countries, with a clear potential to grow. for private sector growth with a very Workers have average wages usually 50- pragmatic approach. Project results have 60 percent lower than in GCC countries, been remarkable, with some of these cities making the Lebanese workforce very cost attracting US$ 7 dollars of private sector efficient in this sector. investment for every US$ 1 dollar invested in public infrastructure. 162. Further growth in creativity and knowledge dynamic sectors of the Lebanese economy is constrained by gaps in specialized to grow, yielding significant results in terms infrastructure. Businesses in creativity of employment, especially for educated and knowledge have so far shown a high youth in Creativity and Knowledge. This potential to strengthen shared prosperity in turn will help reduce further migration and renew the social contract in Lebanon. of skilled Lebanese abroad and pave They developed to the current level despite the way for a more shared prosperity of infrastructure shortcomings, thanks to a the country’s. In addition, Heritage and general environment that is favorable to Tourism, being labor intensive, generates private-sector led growth. Further growth is job opportunities for low-skilled workers hampered by the absence of some specific in lagging regions. The list includes a total foundational and specialized infrastructure of 11 projects for US$ 264 million. There that would allow businesses to benefit are particularly interesting initiatives that from adequate platforms to anchor their offer strategic support for Creativity and innovative approaches to further leverage Knowledge infrastructure; these are CH1 creativity and knowledge. To address National and Public Libraries, CH2 Cinema shortcomings, dedicated investments Industry, CH3 Theater, CH4 Music Industry, have been identified by the Government and CH5 Scientific and Educational Centers with sector strategies. These strategies (the total investment for projects CH1 to highlighted the need of specialized libraries, CH5 is US$ 62 million). The CIP list also a national theater, new branches for the includes very specific and high potential music academy, scientific and educational infrastructure for Heritage and Tourism, centers, and dedicated infrastructure for particularly projects CH6 Arts Museum; the movie industry. CH7 Arts General; and CH8 Warehouse (the total investment for projects CH6 to CH11 is US$ 203 million). C. Government Response 165. The list of 11 projects builds on tested good practices and adequate experience. High in the CIP priority that may be given to CH2, CH3, and CH5 for Creativity & Knowledge; CH9, CH10, 163. The list of 11 projects in the CIP has and CH11 for Tourism & Heritage, with their Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon been built on wide consensus. The CIP implementation starting in Cycle 1. elaborated by the Government and has been developed with broad consultations 166. With reference to Creativity & Knowledge, with the public and private sector and priority in Cycle 1 may be given to projects it represents an adequate selection of a CH2 (Cinema Industry), CH3 (Theater), and priority projects. Some of these projects CH5 (Scientific and Educational Centers). could be realized in partnership with the The high priority of the project CH2 Cinema private sector, with support from the industry is due to the growth potential of public sector with concessional financing the sector in the country and its relevance for strategic investments (the amount of for job generation, particularly for the public financing is what the Government youth, and for fostering freedom and social highlighted in the costing of the 11 cohesion, in a sector that has brought projects), unlocking a virtuous circle of Lebanon to global visibility (e.g. recent investments. Their implementability does Oscar nomination for the movie The Insult). not pose significant economic risks, The project CH3 Theater is of high priority given solid demand, and does not have as well and it can be implemented with notable challenges, given local technical an innovative value-capture scheme that and managerial capacity, limited land would represent a potential application of 66 acquisition issues, and coherence with the new PPP law to urban development at social and environmental policies. a scale of significance. The project CH5 Scientific and Educational Centers is of 164. The World Bank team that assessed high priority as well, due to the relevance the CIP agrees that all 11 projects have of establishing a network of secondary and relevance. The 11 projects selected by the specialized research centers throughout Government can support one of the most the country to support innovation, particularly in agriculture and niche 168. The cost of the 7 high priority projects products (e.g. ICT, wine industry, food amounts to US$ 84 mln to be invested processing), which have been growing fast in Cycle 1. Given their nature, these and represent areas with high employment high priority projects would continue generation potential. These priority implementation in Cycle 2 as well. The projects in Creativity & Knowledge can be cost of the remaining projects that could implemented in partnership with the private start implementation in Cycle 2 is US$ 180 sector, experimenting new areas for PPPs million. in the country. The table developed by the Government, for these projects includes the amount of concessional financing needed to address the infrastructural gap D. Sector Reforms and unlock private initiatives. 169. The Government of Lebanon has pursued 167. Concerning Tourism & Heritage, priority sustained efforts to ensure dynamism in Cycle 1 can be given to CH9 (Historic and further growth in Heritage & Tourism Cities), CH10 (Heritage, Archeological and Creativity & Knowledge, given their Sites, and Surroundings), and CH11 relevance to the country’s economy. These (Museums). These second set of projects efforts have included ensuring freedom would scale up and build on the recent of media with a solid and dedicated and sound success of large operations legislation, playing an active role in already implemented by the Government of enforcing intellectual property rights and Lebanon to support Heritage and Tourism. regulations. Sector regulations have These projects are CH9 Historical cities and also ensured an adequate framework for buildings, CH10 Archeological sites and conservation and management of heritage surroundings, and CH11 Museums. These assets and then involvement of the private high priority projects would help replicate sector, especially at the local level, to success stories in secondary and tertiary which Lebanon has systematically honored cities inland, in lagging regions, opening its commitments by ratifying relevant up new destinations. They would expand international conventions and reflecting the benefits of tourism, bringing spending them in its country system. to less developed areas within the country and enhancing the level of service delivery 170. Additionally, the Government set up a to local communities in secondary cities in dedicated system of incentives to support the internal part of the country, addressing the sector, which can bridge public and regional disparities compared to the more private investments. In 2001, the Lebanese developed coastal areas. These projects Parliament passed the Investment Law 360, Tourism & Heritage, Creativity & Knowledge would finance strategic infrastructure establishing a framework that provides that can attract relevant private sector financial and non-financial incentives for investment, based on tested approaches. investment, with the sector considered The table developed by the Government, a priority, given its high potential for for these projects includes the amount employment. Under the current regulatory of concessional financing needed. It is framework, incentives are designed relevant to highlight that projects identified based on a geographical distinction of the in this sector have close linkages and country into 3 macro-areas, with higher synergies with projects identified in other incentives targeting lagging regions of the sectors of the CIP, particularly those on country. Incentives include exemptions ports expansion, as these initiatives could from corporate income tax, and taxes on enhance tourism access to cities and their project dividends, reduction of work permit inland, namely TP12 (Tourism port in fees for various categories, reduction on 67 Jounieh, US$ 62 million); TP14 (Expansion construction permit fees, exemption from of the Saida port, US$ 60 million); TP15 land registration fees and other measures (Tourism port in Sour, Tyre, US$ 30 million); to ease investment. and TP20 (Expansion of the Tripoli port, 171. The projects can be made more effective by US$ 150 million). having their implementation coupled with a fine tuning of the system of incentives in place, to enhance overall sector governance, based on an update of the nexus demand-supply. Such fine-tuning could be coupled with targeted measures to enhance urban governance as well and ease of doing business at the local level, with the objective of effectively capturing the benefits and sustainability that these projects can bring, linking existing incentives with more efficient measures to unlock growth at the local level. Table 16: Cultural Heritage/ Tourism Projects Estimated Cost Ref. Project (MUS$) CH1 National and Public Libraries 15 CH2 Cinema Industry 7 CH3 Theater 7 CH4 Music Industry 15 CH5 Scientific and Educational Centers 18 CH6 Arts Museum 7 CH7 Arts in General 10 CH8 Museums Deposits (Warehouses) 36 CH9 Historic Cities 50 CH10 Heritage, Archaeological Sites, and Surroundings 70 CH11 Museums 30 Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 68 Industry 69 VIII. INDUSTRY The CIP contains 2 separately identified between 2003 and 2011. In comparison investment projects in the industry sector, the 3 and over the same period, manufacturing industrial parks in Alkaa, Baalbek and Terbol and accounted for a much lesser 20 percent the Tripoli Special Economic Zone (TSEZ), for a of FDI inflows to MENA but generated 55 total of US$ 75 million. The WBG assesses that percent of the employment. the TSEZ project in Cycle 1 (2018-2021), with the costing on the low side. Meanwhile, the industrial 174. One possibility to strengthen the industrial parks project in the CIP constitute phase 2 of an sector is via spatial industrial policies, ongoing project and as such is intended to be most notably, industrial parks and special implemented over the second Cycle covering the economic zones (SEZs), which support period 2022-2026. The estimated cost is seemingly increased investment and competitiveness high for the industrial parks phase 2. in the industrial sector. In theory, these would offer the potential to address both growth and macroeconomic vulnerability issues linked to weak industrial sector A. General Comments performance. To the degree that they attract new investments—particularly from 172. Lebanon’s industrial sector has lagged, foreign enterprises—that introduce new both on regional and global comparative technologies to the domestic economy, basis (WB, 2016).21 The country’s macro- industrial parks and SEZs support economic structure, being heavily growth both through an accumulation of dependent on tourism and real estate at physical capital as well as an increase the expense of industry and agriculture, in total factor productivity (TFP) (Wang, renders the economy vulnerable to 2013).23 An indicator of productivity is the political and economic shocks. In this share of medium- to high-technology in context, Lebanon needs to focus on its manufacturing; currently, for Lebanon this industrial potential and provide solutions share is about half of the OECD average, to the numerous constraints hindering its and ranks about half-way in the region (WB, industrial establishments from functioning 2016). Moreover, the shift in economic at their full capacity. activity toward the more resilient industrial sector, will help establish a more diversified 173. As it stands, the structural composition of economy, enabling Lebanon to better Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon the Lebanese economy is not conducive for absorb the shocks to which the country is job creation, even during robust growth frequently exposed. This can be maximized periods. While real estate and construction by focusing on Lebanon’s comparative exert a sizable influence on the aggregate advantages in high value-added sectors (a economy, combining to account for knowledge economy). an average of 17.1 percent of real GDP between 2004 and 2011, they employed an 175. Industrial parks and SEZs may also offer average of only 7.8 percent of the Lebanese a strategy to mitigate macroeconomic workforce between 2004 and 2009 (WB, vulnerabilities via a number of channels. 2016). The real estate sector, in particular, As with the potential productivity gains has accounted for anywhere between 50 noted above, exploiting these gains and 70 percent of total gross fixed capital depends on the degree to which these formation since 1997. The disconnect instruments facilitate competitiveness between robust activity in real estate and and (especially) attract Foreign Direct job creation also holds true for the region Investment (FDI). at large; a World Bank study22 showed a. In raising net exports, the current that while the real estate sector accounted account deficit can be lowered. 70 for around 33 percent of Foreign Direct b. An increase in FDI will strengthen Investment (FDI) inflows to the Middle the balance of payments, providing East and North Africa (MENA) region, it exchange rate support. contributed to only 5 percent of job creation 21 World Bank (2016), Lebanon Economic Monitor: A 23 Jin Wang, (2013), The economic impact of Special GeoEconomy of Risks and Rewards, Spring 2016. Economic Zones: Evidence from Chinese municipalities, 22 World Bank (2011), Investing for Growth and Jobs, Journal of development economics, v. 101, March 2013, Middle East and North Africa region, pages 30-34. p. 133-147. c. In decreasing dependence on short- of firms, particularly within related and term inflows, FDI helps lower the risk supporting industries (i.e. clusters), of a sudden stop. including the development of deep, specialized markets for labor and 176. Special care should be allotted when fiscal suppliers, as well as information incentives are offered, which evidence spillovers and coordination potential. suggest are ineffective as a source of differentiation, with the end result • Specialized infrastructure and merely an increasing ‘race to the bottom’ services: Industrial parks often offer and transfer of rents from governments specialized services to firms operating to private investors. In general, fiscal in the facilities, particularly where incentives should not be excessive and zones are designed to support specific should be well targeted and consistent with clusters. Such services typically involve the national economic/industrial strategy access to public or ‘club goods’ which that the government is pursuing. This is benefit all firms but which no individual so as to not cause distortions whereby the firm (particularly Small and Medium Enterprises) would invest in alone. These incentives lead to relocation of existing may include common effluent treatment businesses to the zones rather than the facilities, common processing facilities, establishment of new business. Moreover, design and testing facilities, etc. More these fiscal incentives are bound to cause generalized services like engineering, additional transfer of resources from the human resources (labor recruiting and more taxed, less privileged majority to the training) and financial services, may less-taxed elite. also be offered particularly in zones catering to foreign investors and/or where such services are unavailable B. Ensuring Success from local markets surrounding the zones. 177. Industrial parks and SEZs should be seen • Regulatory facilitation: While many within the context of spatial industrial basic industrial parks stop at the policy—i.e. as instruments that aim to provision of infrastructure, many zones improve the environment for investment aim to facilitate the process of legal and productivity in specific locations. What and regulatory compliance of tenants, all these zone types feature in common including business registration and is the spatial concentration of firms and licensing, obtaining construction and infrastructure. As further features are operating permits, and any required added to this core infrastructure, usually permits related to labor (e.g. visas to overcome constraints to the operating and work permits). Such facilitation is environment for businesses, the nature of most common in SEZ arrangements, the offering widens (Table 17). The features where the target tenant is most often include the following: a foreign investor with less experience • Concentration of infrastructure: The in managing the domestic regulatory foundation of all zones is the provision environment. of industrial infrastructure that is • Regulatory regime simplification: targeted to a defined spatial area. Beyond facilitation, many zones seek The rationale is three-fold. First, the to simplify and liberalize regulatory spatial targeting allows governments requirements for investors to reduce the Industry to concentrate scarce resources where regulatory burden of business establish- they can have the biggest impact. ment and operation. Simplification Second, it allows for more effective usually involves establishing a separate 71 planning of industrial development, set of rules—a separate regulatory reducing negative externalities of regime—for the zone, and thus, is almost congestion and environmental damage never part of a standard industrial park that may result from less planning arrangement. development. Finally, they offer • Specialized customs, trade and the potential for exploiting positive financial regimes: In order to facilitate spillovers that results from co-location trade, particularly in zones targeting Table 17: Summary of feature for Industrial Parks and SEZs’ infrastructure. Industrial Parks SEZs Basic infrastructure   Specialized infrastr. and services   Regulatory facilitation   Regulatory simplification  Specialized trade regime  Multi-user (indust./commer./resid.)  Independent governance  Note: dark gray shading indicates standard feature; light gray indicates a feature that exists in some cases export-oriented industry, it is common reduced regulatory protections24 and/or for zone programs to establish a greater flexibility in bringing in foreign specialized customs regime. Such workers. a regime typically involves an environment allowing for duty-free 178. The popularity of such regimes over imports of inputs to the production recent decades stems from the catalytic process and no restrictions (quotas, role they have in supporting the growth duties, etc) on exports. It may also of manufacturing exports in a number allow firms to operate outside normal of places. Most notably, the success rules with regard to operating with of China, and before that East Asia foreign currency, currency convertibility neighbors Taiwan, Korea, and Japan, was and repatriation of funds if these are based in part on using industrial parks unduly restrictive. Note that some to support the development of export- aspects of the customs regime can oriented manufacturing. In Latin America, be implemented in a basic industrial the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, and Honduras, among others, used zonas Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon park environment if the country has a customs law that allows, for example, francas (“free zones”, generally using the for the operation of bonded warehouses Economic Processing Zone model) to take and duty-drawback mechanisms. advantage of preferential access to the U.S. market. Their zones generated large- • Specialized fiscal and labor regimes: scale manufacturing sectors in economies Common to almost all SEZs but not previously reliant on agricultural com- typically part of a basic industrial park modities. In the Middle East and North program is a fiscal regime that provides Africa, Economic Processing Zone (EPZ) and a number of incentives designed to SEZ regimes played an important role in attract investment. This may include catalyzing export-oriented diversification reduction or elimination of corporate in countries like the Arab Republic of Egypt, taxes, VAT, and other taxes (e.g. local Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates. taxes); it may also reduce or eliminate labor contributions like pensions and 179. Despite these successes, however, it social security and provide subsidies for is important to keep in mind that these training and capital investment. Such a spatial arrangements, at least those specialized fiscal regime is not typically involving specialized regimes like EPZs 72 part of a basic industrial park program, and SEZs, have had a mixed record although investors in an industrial park may qualify for many of the incentives if they are available more broadly through 24 While specialized labor regimes were common in traditional EPZs of the 1970s-1990s they are the national investment regime. Finally, increasingly less common today, where zones are SEZs are sometimes established with a expected to adopt not just ILO-compliant labor regimes specialized regime for labor, allowing but to ensure that the regimes in the EPZs and SEZs investors to benefit from access from do not differ substantively from those in the domestic economy. overall. Many programs have suffered c. Critical infrastructure: While most from controversial land acquisition and zones offer infrastructure that is allocation practices, delayed investment of higher quality than is typically and failure to attract sufficient investments, available in the country, in some cases resulting in many zones being considered (for example in some zones in Nigeria, ‘white elephants’ (WB, 2016). Moreover, Ghana, and Senegal) infrastructure given the large investments in taxpayer inside the zones is a mirror of the money going into these programs, the worst experiences in the country more payoff in terms of investment, job creation widely, including water shortages, and exports has too often failed to electricity failures, and health, safety materialize. and environmental shortfalls. Thus, zone development must prioritize 180. The following are lessons learnt from critical supporting infrastructure— international experiences with industrial both inside and outside the industrial parks and SEZs: park—along with or even ahead of a. Comparative advantage: Successful the development of land and factory industrial parks often cater to specific shells. This is what is referred to industrial clusters. Where zone in China’s industrial parks as “five initiatives have been successful is connections and a levelling”—power, where the emphasis has been on: water, telecommunications, roads, i) industrial clusters that are in line and ports, along with basic land with national or regional comparative preparation—as the fundamental advantage; and ii) where they are infrastructural responsibility of clearly linked to a wider national governments in industrial zone industrial strategy. Examples include development. Bangladesh and many of the EPZs d. Regulatory simplification: Successful in Central America, which built industrial parks not only offer infrastructure to support a specific facilitation through ‘one-stop’ investor global positioning in the apparel services but actually simplify the sector. By contrast, less successful requirements and procedures involved zone initiatives in many parts of Africa in business start-up, construction and have ended up catering to a diverse operations. This can be done through set of capital intensive sectors that legal mechanisms that actually change mainly served to facilitate imports. the regulatory requirements of firms b. Strategic locations: Industrial parks operating within zones, as is the case and SEZs are most successful when in many SEZ programs. But it can they take advantage of strategic also be achieved through concerted locations. This typically includes efforts to improve procedures within metropolitan regions and key trade- each relevant agency. In this regard, related infrastructure, but can also one can look to reforms in Chinese include locations with good access to industrial parks to see an example immobile, strategic (typically, natural) of successfully married process resources. By contrast, many countries reengineering and automation of that have launched programs have business compliance burdens, attempted to use part of the program as resulting in significant reductions in a regional development tool, to attract administrative processing times— Industry investment into ‘lagging’ or peripheral see, for example, the ‘Digital Beijing regions. Many countries, including Initiative’ of the Zhongguancun e-Park Turkey, Thailand, Russia, South Africa in Beijing. and Bangladesh among others, have 73 e. Role of the private sector: While many found that while industrial parks successful industrial zone programs flourished in favorable locations, they have been led by government, languished in less favorable ones, commercial orientation and private even when additional fiscal incentives sector participation in development were on offer. and operation of successful zones is often critical to ensure speed of implementation, financial risk- The Ministry of Industry was granted the sharing, technical expertise and right to establish industrial zones in 2005 appropriate market signals. Fiscal, through Decree #14283. Specifically, this customs, and other incentives must decree grants the right for Ministry of be designed to attract the right kind of Industry (MoI) to establish and operate productivity-enhancing investments public “industrial centers” throughout rather than short-term or rent-seeking Lebanon. investments. 182. According to data from the Ministry of f. Regulatory autonomy and coordination: Industry, 131 industrial zones have been While a number of regulatory models established either by decree or a decision exist for overseeing industrial parks, from a Higher Council. Nearly half are the most effective approach tends in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, close to to be establishing a single national one-quarter are in North Lebanon, and regulatory authority (rather than the remainder are split between Bekaa individual zone authorities) that and South Lebanon & Nabatiyeh. The is independent from an individual existing zones are largely linked to location ministry. This provides autonomy requirements defined around environment and minimizes political interference. impacts of industries. Industries in Examples here include the industrial Lebanon are split into five categories, in zone and free zone regimes in Thailand, decreasing order of environment impact. Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Factories in the first 3 categories can only Jordan, Philippines and Korea. It is operate in industrial zones while those in also critical, in cases where more than the fourth and fifth categories can operate one zone program exists, to ensure a in industrial zones only if the zones pertain formal mechanism exists to facilitate to their relative industry. coordination. g. Local economy linkages: Particularly 183. Apart from suitable industrial classifications, in SEZs and industrial zone initiatives MoI and Central Government do not provide targeting foreign investors, active industrial zones with infrastructure, efforts should be made to promote connections to grid or any further linkages between zone-based benefits beyond those mentioned in the decrees. However, local municipalities Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon firms and the domestic economy, including suppliers and labor might contribute to this regard based on markets. Initiatives may include local availability of financial resources and supplier development, job training, healthy relationships with operating and technology transfer programs. industrialists. As a result, while some Regulatory improvements in the local industrial zones are endowed with economy outside the zones can also be quality facilities, many of the existing critical to enable local firms to respond zones lack basic infrastructure, including to the new opportunities offered by environmental infrastructure (e.g. water zone investments. and wastewater) to support industrial development. Moreover, most industrial development continues to take place outside of the zones. C. Industrial Parks and 184. Beyond these industrial zones, four private SEZs in Lebanon industrial zones have been established25: • Shakadif Industrial City – located in the 181. Lebanon has had a program of industrial South near Jezzine 74 zones for several decades. An industrial • Tebna Industrial City – located in the zone strategy was developed by Investment South near Sidon, Tyre and Nabatieh. Development Authority of Lebanon (IDAL) • Dmoul Industrial Park – located in the in 1995, which aimed to support industrial South in Ansar development and a more balanced geographical distribution of industrial • Terbol Industrial City – located in Bekaa investment through the provision of specific in Terbol infrastructure and financial incentives. 25 IDAL 2014, Lebanon’s Private Industrial Zones. 185. In addition to industrial parks, Lebanon (are) expected to include a private operator, has also established special economic the Ministry of Industry and the local zones, or ‘free economic zones’, which municipality(ies). At US$ 50 million, the operate under the office of the Prime second phase of the project, the complete Minister. The first of these, the Logistics cost of which is estimated to be US$ 120 Free Zone, is based in Beirut and operated million, seems overpriced. by the Port of Beirut. This zone, established by law in 1995 but launched only in 2007, 188. For exports to be a real opportunity for the is designed under a ‘freezone’ model, industrial parks, vital conditions include which aims to attract foreign and domestic Syria peace and reconstruction, or at investment in trade-related activities, the very least, a secured access through including transport, transit, and logistics. Syria to other countries in the region It offers 100 percent foreign ownership and (i.e. Jordan, Iraq). Relative to Lebanon’s customs exemptions. geography, Alkaa, Baalbek and Terbol are remote, distant from the coast and close to the Syrian border. They are, however, connected via a main highway that links to D. CIP Industrial Parks Beirut, allowing them access to the focal domestic market. and TSEZ 189. Terbol has a well-established private 186. The Ministry of Industry, in partnership with agribusiness that is interested in expanding the United Nations Industrial Development into the proposed industrial zone. It is not Organization (UNIDO), has launched an clear if the same is true of Baalbek and initiative to establish industrial parks in Alkaa. While some relocation of businesses three locations, all in the Bekaa Valley: is reasonable, a main objective should be Alkaa, Baalbek and Terbol. IN1 of the new businesses and investment. For that, CIP constitutes the second phase of the private sector interest and participation are project. The ministry’s objective is to help key. improve the competitiveness of Lebanon’s 190. In 2008, the government passed a law for industries via a number of mechanisms. To the establishment of the Tripoli Special begin with, MoI will provide the necessary Economic Zone (TSEZ), to be established infrastructure (waste treatment, road on a 50-hectare site adjacent to the Port linkages, power generation etc.) that has of Tripoli in the North of the country. The so far been lacking in its classifications TSEZ Law also includes the establishment of industrial zones. The environmental of Tripoli Special Economic Zone Authority setting is particularly disposed to benefit, as a distinct, autonomous legal entity considering current operating conditions (reporting to the Prime Minister’s office) for for industry. Additionally, in recognition oversight of the TSEZ program. The TSEZ that land prices are a principal impediment is expected to go beyond the trading and to competitiveness of industry in Lebanon, logistics role of the Logistics Free Zone in this initiative aims to offer long-term leasing Beirut and develop an industrial park to of municipal lands at very low prices to attract foreign and domestic investments industries that relocate to the zones. Afore- on manufacturing and related activities. mentioned space and scale externalities A thorough market demand and financial/ will also be in effect. economic feasibility study has been Industry 187. Only a cabinet decree adopting the completed indicating potential job creation, masterplan is needed as the project was tenant demand and PPP investor interest. designed to be implementable within Overall cost of fully developed TSEZ is US$ 250-270 million. It is estimated that circa 75 the present legal and instructional framework. The Council for Development US$ 210-240 million of this can be mobilized and Reconstruction is the implementing from the private sector with the government agency. It is yet unclear whether there will providing an initial investment of circa US$ be a single entity overseeing all industrial 30-40 million in the construction of onsite parks, or each park will have its own entity. infrastructure. In any case, the governing entity(ies) is 191. The TSEZ includes an extremely generous 192. Other reform measures include: set of fiscal incentives26 in addition to • Passage of Regulatory and Licensing labor regulatory incentives. Indeed, the Regime; provision of a 100 percent corporate tax • Approval of TSEZ Masterplan and PPP exemption without time limits and a 100 Business Plan; and percent exemption of withheld taxes and social security contributions for employees • Recruitment of Private Sector are almost unheard of these days, even Developer/Operator. within the SEZ environment. As such, the potential exists that TSEZ businesses will gain a significant competitive edge over non-TSEZ businesses, to the extent that the former enters an existing market. As a result, the incentive for businesses would be in favor of relocation to the zone at the expense of expansion. It is thus imperative for access to the zone to be awarded to expanding businesses. Specifically, due to the location, the export market should be a key target, and sufficient measures/ conditions can be undertaken by the authorities to ensure that access is offered to exporting businesses. Table 18: Special Economic Zones Projects Estimated Land Ref Project Cost Expropr. (MUS$) (MUS$) Infrastructure for industrial cities, Alkaa, Baalbek, IN1 50 None Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon and Terbol – Phase 2 IN2 Infrastructure for the Tripoli Special Economic Zone 25 None 26 This includes (i) 100 percent customs exemption on imported raw material; (ii) duty free export of finished goods; (iii) duty free import of construction material, equipment, office machinery and spare parts; (iv) 100 percent exemption on VAT and excise tax for goods 76 and services destined for exports; (v) 100 percent exemption on corporate profit tax (provided that not less than 50 percent of the workforce is Lebanese and the value of fixed assets or capital is greater than USD 300,000); (vi) 100 percent exemption on withheld tax on salaries for employees of tenants and on social security contributions; (vii) 10 percent exemption on building permit fees and built property tax; and (viii) 100 percent exemptions on shares and bonds issued by companies within TSEZ. Annex A Guidance Note for the CIP Assessment Framework Strategic Assessment Score Score 1- In Your View, Is the Project a Strategic 1e- How Likely is it that The Project Will Contribute Priority for the Sector? to Increasing Exports Resounding yes Y Very likely Y "Good to have" but not a priority E No N Not likely N I don’t know/don’t have enough information D I don’t know/don’t have enough information D Score Score 1b- How Likely is it that the Project Will 2- Does the Project Belong to an Official Sector Alleviate Significant Supply Strategy/Plan? Yes Y Very likely Y Not likely N No N Not relevant L I don’t know/don’t have enough information D I don’t know/don’t have enough information D Score Score 3- Is the Project an Appropriate Technical Solution 1c- How Likely is it that The Project Will Help to the Challenge Reduce The Cost Structure Identified? Very likely Y Yes Y Not likely N No N Not relevant L I don’t know/don’t have enough information D I don’t know/don’t have enough information D Score Score 4- The Project Can and Should be 100% Financed by 1d- How Likely is it that The Project Will Help the Private Sector Attract a Significant Y Yes, the institutional and policy environment are Y Very likely supportive Yes, "in principle" but the institutional/policy E environment needs changes first Not likely N No, for any reason N I don’t know/don’t have enough information D I don’t know/don’t have enough information D Annex A 77 Assessment for Growth, Employment and Inclusion Score Score 5- Timing of Potential Growth Impact of 8- "Good Job" Potential of Completed Project Completed Project 3 Contributes significantly to creating high 3 Less than 12 months from initiation productivity (or high skill) jobs 2 Contributes moderately to creating high productivity 2 In 13 to 36 months from initiation (or high skill) jobs Contributes marginally to creating high productivity In more than 36 months from initiation 1 1 (or high skill) jobs I don’t know/don’t have enough information D I don’t know/don’t have enough information D Score Score 6- Sustainability of Growth Impact of 9- Employment Creation of Completed Project Completed Project Highly sustainable 3 Generates a large number of jobs 3 Moderately sustainabale 2 Generates a moderate number of jobs 2 Not likely to be sustainable or will require 1 Generates a low number of jobs 1 significant public resources I don’t know/don’t have enough information D I don’t know/don’t have enough information D Score Score 10- In Your Judgement, Is Government's Estimation 7- Inclusivity of Growth of Completed Project of Labor-Hours Generated by Project: 3 CIP under-estimates labor hours generated, i.e. CIP 3 Project targets poor women number is too low? Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 2 CIP reasonably estimates labor hours generated, i.e. 2 Project targets the poor in general CIP number is about right? 1 CIP over-estimates labor hours generated, i.e. CIP 1 None of the above number is too high? I don’t know/don’t have enough information D I don’t know/don’t have enough information D 78 Feasibility Assessment Score Score 13- In Your Judegment, The Project Belongs to 11- Affordability of Project Which Implementing Period? Private financing with guarantees/ contingent 3 2018 - 2021 1 liabilities Public concessional financing - some 2 2022 – 2025 2 concessional financing required Public, market based financing 1 2026 - 2030 3 I don’t know/don’t have enough information D I don’t know/don’t have enough information D Score Score 12- In Your Judgment, Readiness to Implement 14- Does the Potential Implementing Agency have (is Project Shovel Ready?) the Necessary Capacity 0-6 months for shovel readiness 3 6-18 months for shovel readiness 2 Yes Y 18+ months for shovel readiness 1 No N I don’t know/don’t have enough information D I don’t know/don’t have enough information D Reform Needs Assessment Score 15- Reform Complement 17- Please Specify Top 3 Reform Priorities Needed in Order for the Project to be Successful No reforms needed 3 1- Only cabinet decrees needed 2 2- Parliamentary legislation needed 1 3- I don’t know/don’t have enough information D Score 16- Reform Timeline Reforms to be front ended Reforms to proceed with implementation 2 Reforms to be post- implementation 1 I don’t know/don’t have enough information D Annex A 79 STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT 1. In Your View, Is the Project a Strategic Priority for the Sector? • Guiding question: based on your experience of the information provided, does the proposed project address a priority deficiency in infrastructure or public service delivery for the sector? • If Resounding Yes, please rate Y. • If “good to have, but not a high priority”, please rate E • If No, please rate N. • If you don’t know, then please rate D. 1b. How Likely is it that the Project Will Alleviate Bottlenecks Significantly in the Sector or Industry? • Guiding question: Supply bottlenecks are considered as the absence of infrastructure (hard or soft) that prevent production from taking place or scaling up. Supply bottlenecks could be absence of electricity, of road connections, of irrigation services, of small or substandard certification services (for exports), etc. • If Very likely, please rate Y. • If Not likely, please rate N • If Not relevant , please rate L. • If you don’t know, then please rate D. 1c. How Likely is it that the Project Will Help Reduce the Cost Structure Significantly in the Sector or Industry? a. Guiding question: For the reduction in cost structure, please look at the reduction of inefficiencies; perhaps a road will help reduce transportation costs or travel time; or new irrigation system will reduce water losses; private generator charges will be reduced; private tuition feed will be reduced, etc. • If Very likely, please rate Y. • If Not likely, please rate N • If Not relevant , please rate L. • If you don’t know, then please rate D. Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 1d. How Likely is it that The Project Will Help Attract a Significant Amount of FDI in the Sector Concerned or in Upstream or Downstream Sectors? • If Very likely, please rate Y. • If Not likely, please rate N • If you don’t know, then please rate D. 1e. How Likely is it that the Project Contribute to Increasing Exports? • If Very likely, please rate Y. • If Not likely, please rate N • If you don’t know, then please rate D. 2. Does the Project Belong to an Official Sector Strategy/Plan? • Guiding question: Is the project part of a strategy/pan for the sector which has received official national (i.e. governmental, parliamentary, but not just ministerial ) or subnational (municipal) endorsement? • If Yes, please rate Y. 80 • If No, then please rate N. • If I don’t know, then please rate D. 3. Is the Project an Appropriate Technical Solution to the Challenge Identified? • Guiding question: Is the proposed technical solution appropriate to the problem identified given the challenge, capacities of agencies, and indebtedness of Lebanon, i.e., the envisaged technology or approach is neither too advanced, too complicated, nor over-specified, or is the selected option too expensive? » For example, while a metro system does address a priority deficiency (traffic congestion), it might not be the most appropriate technical solution, considering Lebanon’s resources. • If Yes, please rate Y. • If No, please rate N. • If I don’t know, then please rate D. 4. The Project Can and/or Should be 100% Financed by the Private Sector. • If Yes given today’s policy and institutional environment , please rate Y. • If Yes “in principle”, but changes to today’s policy and institutional environment are necessary, please rate E. • If No for any reason, then please rate N. • If I don’t know, then please rate D. ASSESSMENT FOR GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT AND INCLUSION 5. Timing of Potential Growth Impact, After Completion of the Project • Please estimate time horizon for potential growth impact. • If In less than 12 months from project initiation (short-term impact on growth), then please rate 3. » For example, potential benefits from an SME subsidy scheme may kick in during implementation or shortly thereafter. • If In 13 to 36 months from project initiation (medium-term impact on growth), then please rate 2. » For example, if you are convinced that this would constitute a financially profitable investment (ie a demand driven expansion in port). • If In more than 36 months from project initiation (long-term impact on growth), then please rate 1. » For example, if you think this is an investment that would help increase Lebanon’s competitiveness/growth potential in the years to come (such as a tertiary education project) • If you don’t know, then please rate D. 6. Sustainability of Growth Impact, After Completion of the Project • If highly sustainable, then please rate 3. » If you are convinced that this would constitute an investment with long-term economic and social returns. • If moderately sustainable, then please rate 2. » If you are convinced that this would constitute an investment with only short- to medium- term economic and social returns. • If not likely to be sustainable or will require significant public resources, then please rate 1. » For example, if you think that this investment will not generate economic and social returns beyond the short-term and requires significant public resources. Annex A • If you don’t know, then please rate D. 7. Inclusivity of Growth Impact, of the Completed Project • If Project targets poor women, then please rate 3. 81 • If Project targets the poor in general , then please rate 2. • If None of the above, then please rate 1. • If You don’t know, then please rate D. 8. “Good Job” Potential, of the Completed Project • Guidance: Kindly focus on the quality of jobs generated (there is a separate question regarding the quantity of jobs created further down). • If Project contributes significantly to creating high productivity (or high skill) jobs, then please rate 3. • If Project contributes moderately to creating high productivity (or high skill) jobs, then please rate 2. • If Project contributes marginally to creating high productivity (or high skill) jobs, then please rate 1. • If You don’t know, then please rate D. 9. Employment Creation by Completed Project • Guidance: This question is not about the number of jobs created during implementation. Rather, like the previous question, it asks about the quantity of jobs that may be created after the project is implemented. Clearly, the question is quite subjective. • If Project generates a large number of jobs, then please rate 3. • If Project generates a moderate number of jobs, then please rate 2. • If Project generates a low number of jobs, then please rate 1. • If You don’t know, then please rate D. 10. In Your Judgement, Is Government’s Estimation of Labor-Hours Generated by Project: • If the estimated employment generated during implementation are UNDER ESTIMATED by the project file (column entitled Generated Employment – Millions of labor-Days) please rate 3. • If the estimated employment generated during implementation are REASONABLY ESTIMATED by the project file (column entitled Generated Employment – Millions of labor-Days) please rate 2. • If the estimated employment generated during implementation are OVER ESTIMATED by the project file (column entitled Generated Employment – Millions of labor-Days) please rate 1. • If you don’t know, then please rate D. FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 11. Affordability of Project • If Private financing with guarantees/ contingent liabilities, then please rate 3. » If project can realistically be privately financed with implicit or explicit state guarantees. Implicit state guarantees imply contingent liabilities. • If Public concessional financing, then please rate 2. » If project cannot be privately financed and needs public financing, but it is realistic to expect concessional financing. For example, a project that benefits both host and refugees communities can qualify for the Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF). • If Public, market based financing, then please rate 1. » If project cannot be privately financed and needs public financing, but it is not likely to be concessional financing. » If I don’t know, then please rate D. 12. In your Judgement, Readiness to Implement (Is Project Shovel Ready?) • If 0-6 months for shovel (i.e. short term implementation period), then please rate 3. • If 6-18 months for shovel (i.e. medium term implementation period), then please rate 2. 82 • If 18+ months for shovel (i.e. long term implementation period), then please rate 1. • If I don’t know, then please rate D. 13. In your Judgment, the Project Belongs to Which Implementing Period? • If 2018 - 2021, then please rate 1. • If 2022 - 2025, then please rate 2. • If 2026 - 2030, then please rate 3. • If I don’t know, then please rate D. 14. Does the Potential Implementing Agency have the Necessary Capacity (Staffing, Skills and Institutional Structure)? • If Yes, then please rate Y. • If No, then please rate N. • If I don’t know, then please rate D. REFORM NEEDS ASSESSMENT 15. Reform Complement • If No reforms needed, then please rate 3. • If Only cabinet decrees needed, then please rate 2. • If Parliamentary legislation needed, then please rate 1. • If I don’t know, then please rate D. 16. Reform Timeline • If Reforms to be front ended, then please rate 3. • If Reforms to proceed with implementation, then please rate 2. • If Reforms to be post-implementation, then please rate 1. • If I don’t know, then please rate D. 17. Please Specify the Top Three Reforms Needed for the Project to be Successful: • 1. • 2. • 3. Annex A 83 Annex B WBG – GoL Comparator Tables of the Implementation Cycles for Projects Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Electricity Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon * WB cost across the 3 cycles is US$ 5452 mil, different by US$ 140 mil, due to the unknown phase assigned to project E10 84 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Water (1/4) Annex B 85 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Water (2/4) Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 86 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Water (3/4) Annex B 87 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Water (4/4) Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 88 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Waste Water (1/3) Annex B 89 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Waste Water (2/3) Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 90 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Waste Water (3/3) Annex B 91 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Transportation Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 92 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Solid Waste Management Annex B 93 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Telecommunications Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 94 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Culture & Tourism Annex B 95 Table 19: WB Assessment of Implementation Cycle in Comparison to GoL - Industry Strategic Assessment: A Capital Investment Plan For Lebanon 96 ‫اإلطار ‪ :1‬ألمساواة بين الجنسين وإشراك الشباب‬ ‫في برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي‬ ‫يمكـن لبرنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي أن يؤثـر تأثيـرا ً إيجابيـاً علـى أوضـاع المسـاواة بين الجنسـين وإشـراك الشـباب فـي لبنـان‪ .‬وفي ضوء‬ ‫هيمنـة الذكـور أصحـاب المهـارات المتدنيـة علـى فـرص العمـل فـي قطاع اإلنشـاء‪ ،‬فإن األثر سـيتحقق مـن خالل القيمـة المضافـة الناتجة‬ ‫عـن مشـاريع برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي المنجـزة‪ ،‬إذا نُفـذت بشـكل جيد‪ .‬ويمكـن أن يحدث هـذا عبر قناتيـن هما فرص العمـل واآلثار‬ ‫اإلجتماعيـة واإلقتصاديـة غير المباشـرة‪.‬‬ ‫تعـد مشـاركة المـرأة فـي األيـدي العاملـة فـي لبنـان منخفضـة جدا ً‪ ،‬والسـيما بين النسـاء فـي الفئـة العمريـة ‪ 45-35‬عاماً‪ .‬فال يعمل سـوى‬ ‫‪ 22%‬مـن النسـاء اللواتـي هـن فـي سـن العمـل‪ ،‬مقابـل ‪ 70%‬للرجـال و‪ 15 49.5%‬للنسـاء عالميـاً‪ .‬وتتخـذ معـدالت المشـاركة فـي األيـدي‬ ‫العاملـة شـكل منحـى الجـرس (‪ )bell-curved‬بالنسـبة للنسـاء والرجـال علـى السـواء‪ ،‬مـع انخفـاض المعـدالت بالنسـبة للشـباب‪ .‬ويبلغ‬ ‫معـدل مشـاركة الشـابات ‪ ،20%‬مقابـل ‪ 40%‬للرجـال‪ ،‬ويـزداد هـذا المعـدل إلـى ‪ 40%‬بالنسـبة للنسـاء‪ ،‬ونحـو ‪ 90%‬بالنسـبة للرجـال بين‬ ‫األفـراد فـي الفئـة العمريـة ‪ 34-25‬عامـا‪ .‬ومـع ذلك‪ ،‬فبينمـا يتراجع معدل المشـاركة في األيدي العاملة بالنسـبة للنسـاء في الفئـة العمرية‬ ‫‪ 45-35‬عامـا بشـدة عائـدا ً إلـى ‪ ،20%‬يظـل معدل مشـاركة أقرانهن الذكـور مرتفعاً جدا ً عنـد حوالي ‪ 90%‬قبل أن يتراجع إلى ‪ 47%‬بالنسـبة‬ ‫للرجـال فوق ‪ 45‬سـنة‪.‬‬ ‫وعلـى الصعيـد العالمـي‪ ،‬تتولـى المرأة بشـكل رئيسـي مسـؤولية إدارة الميـاه والنظافة الصحية على مسـتوى األسـر والمجتمعـات المحلية‪.‬‬ ‫علاوة علـى ذلـك‪ ،‬فـإن تدنـي جودة المياه يشـكل عواقب صحية سـلبية السـيما بالنسـبة للحوامل والمرضعـات واألطفال الصغار‪ .‬وبالنسـبة‬ ‫للبنـان‪ ،‬أسـفر الصـراع السـوري عـن زيـادة بنسـبة ‪ 30%‬فـي عـدد السـكان علـى مـدى سـنوات قليلـة جـدا ً‪ .‬ويشـكل اإلكتظـاظ الناتـج عن‬ ‫التدفـق المسـتمر للنازحيـن والالجئيـن ضغطـاً غيـر متوقـع علـى البنيـة التحتيـة واإلمـدادات فـي قطـاع الميـاه‪ ،‬ويزيـد فـي الوقت نفسـه‬ ‫خطـر األمـراض المنقولـة بالميـاه وانتشـار العـدوى‪ .‬وتعـد مشـكلة تدني جودة المياه أشـد وطـأة في المناطـق الحضرية منها فـي المناطق‬ ‫الريفيـة‪ ،‬حيـث يمكـن أن يصـل التلـوث بالبكتيريـا إلـى ‪ .90%‬وبقـدر ما يسـاعد برنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي على تحسـين هـذه األوضاع‪،‬‬ ‫وبإمـكان التنفيـذ السـليم لمشـاريع الميـاه أن يحقـق ذلـك‪ ،‬يمكـن أن تعـود المنافـع بالفائدة بشـكل غير متناسـب على النسـاء واألطفال‪.‬‬ ‫يعـد النقـل عاملاً مهمـاً يسـاعد المـرأة علـى الحصـول علـى المـوارد اإلقتصاديـة والتعليـم والصحـة وغيرهـا من العناصـر المهمـة لتمكين‬ ‫المـرأة‪ .‬ويـؤدي تعزيـز قـدرة المرأة علـى التنقل إلى تحسـين فرص وصولها إلـى الفرص اإلقتصادية ويسـهم في تمكينهـا اقتصادياً‪ .‬وتتعرض‬ ‫المـرأة لقيـود فـي لبنـان بسـبب سـوء أوضاع شـبكة الطـرق‪ ،‬وال تملـك بديالً موثوقـاً ومأمونـاً للمركبـات الخاصة بسـبب الشـواغل المتصلة‬ ‫بالسلامة والمضايقـات فـي وسـائل النقـل العـام الحاليـة‪ .‬وتعتمـد النسـاء األقـل دخلا حاليـاً علـى أزواجهـن لتلبيـة احتياجاتهن إلـى النقل‬ ‫(سـيارة واحـدة لـكل أسـرة معيشـية فـي العـادة) أو يضطـررن إلـى اسـتخدام وسـائل النقـل العـام الحاليـة غيـر اآلمنـة‪ .‬وتعد السلامة من‬ ‫القيود الرئيسـية التي سـلطت النسـاء عليها الضوء خالل المشـاورات‪ ،‬وستسـتفيد النسـاء من تنفيذ مشـاريع البنية التحتية في قطاع النقل‬ ‫مـن خلال تحسـين الربـط وخفـض تكاليـف المواصلات والنهـوض بالسلامة على الطـرق‪ .‬أضف إلـى ذلك أن إنشـاء نظام نقل عـام موثوق‬ ‫وميسـور التكلفـة و آمـن سـيمكّن المـرأة مـن التنقـل للحصول على مسـتويات أعلـى من التعليـم والوظائف واألسـواق‪.‬‬ ‫مقدمــة وموجــز للتقييــم‬ ‫تتبـوأ المـرأة مكانـة مهمـة فـي قطـاع السـياحة‪ ،‬حيث تشـير تقديـرات منظمـة السـياحة العالمية التابعـة لألمـم المتحدة إلى أن الشـركات‬ ‫التـي تقودهـا النسـاء فـي قطـاع السـياحة تـكاد تبلـغ ضعـف مثيالتهـا فـي أي قطـاع آخر‪ .‬علاوة على ذلـك‪ ،‬فإن النسـاء يشـكلن ‪ 70%‬من‬ ‫األيـدي العاملـة فـي قطـاع السـياحة‪ ،‬ويتركزن فـي مجاالت اإلقامـة والمطاعم والحـرف اليدويـة‪ .‬كما ترعى الصناعـات المعرفيـة واإلبداعية‬ ‫أيضـاً المواهـب الشـابة‪ ،‬حيـث توفـر ً‬ ‫بديلا ضروريـاً للهجـرة؛ وت ُظهـر الدراسـات التـي أجراهـا االتحـاد األوروبـي أن ‪ 40%‬مـن العاملين في‬ ‫هـذه الصناعـات تقـل أعمارهـم عـن ‪ 35‬سـنة‪ ،‬مقارنة بما نسـبته ‪ 35%‬بالنسـبة لإلقتصـاد إجماال‪.‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪ 15‬تم الحصول على إحصاءات العمل العالمية من تقديرات منظمة العمل الدولية ا ‪.2017‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :13‬حجم ديون تمويل مشاريع البنية التحتية‪،‬‬ ‫مشـاركة الدولة الجتذاب اإلسـتثمار والتمويـل التجاريين في‬ ‫المتوسط ‪ %( 2017-2013‬من إجمالي الناتج المحلي)‬ ‫البنيـة التحتيـة‪ ،‬حيـث تجـد البلـدان فـي كثيـر مـن األحيـان‬ ‫ضـرورة لتنفيـذ برامج تيسـير محـددة بالتوازي مع سياسـات‬ ‫‪A-‬‬ ‫ب و‪0.5% ٬‬‬ ‫مؤاتيـة أوسـع نطاقـاً علـى مسـتوى القطـاع ومشـتركة بيـن‬ ‫‪BBB+‬‬ ‫كولومبيا‪0.6% ٬‬‬ ‫‪BBB‬‬ ‫ا غرب‪0.5% ٬‬‬ ‫القطاعات‪.‬‬ ‫‪BBB-‬‬ ‫‪BB+‬‬ ‫جورجيا‪٬‬‬ ‫‪BB‬‬ ‫‪0.5%‬‬ ‫‪5454‬لهـذا السـبب‪ ،‬يمكـن أن تنظـر السـلطات الوطنيـة فـي‬ ‫ا ردن‪1.6%< ٬‬‬ ‫‪BB-‬‬ ‫إنشـاء صنـدوق لتمويـل مشـاريع البنيـة التحتية فـي لبنان‬ ‫‪B+‬‬ ‫كينيا‪0.3% ٬‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫بدعـم مـن المانحيـن الدولييـن‪ .‬وسـيلزم إجـراء تقييمـات‬ ‫‪B-‬‬ ‫جامايكا‪0.6% ٬‬‬ ‫مفصلـة مـن جانب مستشـاري الحكومة للمعاملات لتحديد‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪1,000‬‬ ‫المبالـغ المطلوبة بشـكل أدق لدعم تمويل مشـاريع برنامج‬ ‫الناتج ا ح ‪ ،‬با ليار دو ر )مقياس لو غاريتي(‬ ‫إج‬ ‫عـف لهـذه‬ ‫اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي التجاريـة‪ ،‬واألثـر المضا ِ‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫المرافـق‪ .‬ومـن حيـث الحجم‪ ،‬فإن متوسـط األثـر المضاعف‬ ‫للتمويـل المقـدم مـن المانحيـن علـى اإلسـتثمار التجـاري‬ ‫والتمويـل قـد يتـراوح بيـن ‪ 4‬و‪ 5‬مـرات‪ ،‬ممـا يعنـي أن كل‬ ‫دوالر يُسـتثمر فـي مثـل هـذا البرنامج مـن أمـوال المانحين‬ ‫أو األمـوال العامـة يمكـن أن يسـتقطب ‪ 4‬أو ‪ 5‬دوالرات مـن‬ ‫اإلسـتثمارات التجاريـة فـي البنيـة التحتيـة‪.‬‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫المتعثـرة‪ .‬وعلـى الرغـم مـن اسـتعداد البنـوك اللبنانيـة‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :10‬حصص القطاعات من المشاريع التي‬ ‫يمولها‪ ‬القطاع الخاص بشكل كامل في جميع دورات‬ ‫لتمويـل برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪ ،‬ال شـك أن هـذه‬ ‫برنامج االستثمار الرأسمالي‪.‬‬ ‫القيـود سـتقف حجـر عثـرة مسـتقبالً‪ .‬ومـع أن أسـواق رأس‬ ‫المـال تعـد حديثـة النشـأة على نحـو ال يمكّنها فـي األجلين‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫القصيـر والمتوسـط مـن القيـام بـدور فـي تمويـل البرنامج‪،‬‬ ‫النقل‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫ا تصا ت‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫فـإن إمكاناتهـا علـى المـدى األبعـد قويـة ومـن شـأن إحـراز‬ ‫‪18%‬‬ ‫إدارة النفايات الصعبة‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫تقـدم علـى هـذه الجبهـة أن يبعـث بإشـارة إيجابيـة إلـى‬ ‫المسـتثمرين الدولييـن‪.‬‬ ‫‪8%‬‬ ‫‪ 5353‬قـد تحتـاج المشـاريع ذات األولويـة التـي ترتفـع معدالت‬ ‫‪8%‬‬ ‫عائدهـا اإلجتماعـي واإلقتصـادي لكـن تنخفـض معـدالت‬ ‫‪66%‬‬ ‫عائدهـا المالـي إلـى دعـم مالي مـن الدولة لجعلهـا مجدية‬ ‫مـن الناحيـة التجاريـة وجذابة لمسـتثمري القطـاع الخاص‪.‬‬ ‫وعلـى الرغـم من أن البنية التحتية التجارية تشـمل مشـاريع‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫تنتمـي بالكامـل إلـى القطاع الخـاص‪ ،‬نجد علـى أرض الواقع‬ ‫أن معظـم اسـتثمارات القطـاع الخـاص فـي البنيـة التحتيـة‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :11‬حصص القطاعات من المشاريع التي‬ ‫تنطـوي علـى شـكل أو آخـر مـن أشـكال ترتيبـات الشـراكة‬ ‫يمولها‪ ‬القطاع الخاص بشكل كامل في الدورة ‪.1‬‬ ‫بيـن القطاعيـن العـام والخـاص‪ .‬فمـن ناحيـة‪ ،‬يمكـن تمويل‬ ‫اإلسـتثمارات فـي قطاعـات اإلتصـاالت والمطـارات وتوليـد‬ ‫‪1%‬‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫الكهربـاء بالكامـل مـن القطـاع الخـاص علـى الرغـم مـن أن‬ ‫النقل‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫بعضهـا (منتجـو الكهربـاء المسـتقلون وخدمـات اإلنترنـت)‬ ‫ا تصا ت‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪18%‬‬ ‫إدارة النفايات الصعبة‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫قـد تنشـأ عنـه التزامـات محتملـة كبيرة علـى الدولـة‪ .‬ومن‬ ‫الصناعة‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫ناحيـة أخـرى‪ ،‬نجـد أنـه في مشـاريع البنـى التحتيـة األخرى‬ ‫‪43%‬‬ ‫(ال سـيما فـي قطاعـي ميـاه الشـرب والنقل الحضـري)‪ ،‬كثيرا ً‬ ‫‪21%‬‬ ‫مـا تكـون رسـوم المسـتخدمين أقـل بكثيـر مـن تكلفـة رأس‬ ‫المـال‪ .‬وبالنسـبة لهـذه الفئة األخيرة ذات المعـدالت العالية‬ ‫‪17%‬‬ ‫مـن العائـد اإلجتماعـي واإلقتصـادي‪ ،‬كثيـرا ً مـا ينطـوي األمر‬ ‫علـى مبالـغ كبيـرة وآفـاق اسـتثمار طويلـة وعائـدات ماليـة‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫منخفضـة نسـبياً وهيكلـة معقـدة‪ .‬نتيجـة لذلـك‪ ،‬فالبـد مـن‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :12‬حجم تمويل مشاريع البنية التحتية في بلدان مختارة‬ ‫مقدمــة وموجــز للتقييــم‬ ‫‪2.0%‬‬ ‫‪1.5%‬‬ ‫‪1.0%‬‬ ‫‪0.5%‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪0.0%‬‬ ‫كينيا‬ ‫ا غرب‬ ‫جورجيا‬ ‫ا ردن‬ ‫جامايكا‬ ‫كولومبيا‬ ‫ب و‬ ‫لبنان‬ ‫ال يحة الدنيا من البلدان متوسطة الدخل‬ ‫ال يحة العليا من البلدان متوسطة الدخل‬ ‫متوسط حجم ا عاملة‬ ‫‪327‬‬ ‫الواحدة )مليون دو ر(‬ ‫‪772‬‬ ‫‪102‬‬ ‫‪307‬‬ ‫‪83‬‬ ‫‪411‬‬ ‫‪251‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪ 0.6‬عدد ا عام ت سنوياً‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4.8‬‬ ‫‪4.2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :7‬التمويل الخاص في برنامج اإلستثمار‬ ‫بنسـبة ‪ ،)18%( 18%‬ثـم االتصـاالت بنسـبة ‪)21%( 8%‬‬ ‫الرأسمالي في جميع دوراته‬ ‫وأيضـاً النقـل بنسـبة ‪( )17%( 8%‬الشـكل ‪ ،10‬الشـكل ‪.)11‬‬ ‫‪5050‬مـن المهـم أن نضـع فـي االعتبـار أن التقييـم الخـاص‬ ‫بالتمويـل تـم علـى أسـاس كل مشـروع علـى حـدة و «مـن‬ ‫حيـث المبـدأ»‪ .‬وعلـى هـذا النحـو‪ ،‬ينبغـي اعتبـاره هدفـاً‬ ‫‪33%‬‬ ‫يُسـعى إلـى تحقيقـه‪ .‬ويشـير تحليـل مقـارن فـي مـا بيـن‬ ‫البلـدان بشـأن تمويـل البنيـة التحتيـة بالديـن الخـاص إلـى‬ ‫‪67%‬‬ ‫أحجـام تتـراوح بيـن ‪ 0.5‬و‪ 1.5%‬من إجمالـي الناتج المحلي‬ ‫( الشـكل ‪ ،12‬الشـكل ‪ .)13‬ويُترجـم هـذا إلـى مـا بيـن ‪250‬‬ ‫مليـون دوالر و‪ 750‬مليـون دوالر سـنويا بالنسـبة للبنـان‪.‬‬ ‫وللتعـرف علـى إجمالـي التمويـل الخاص للمشـاريع‪ ،‬نضيف‬ ‫أساليب ويل أخرى‬ ‫ويل خاص اما‬ ‫مـا متوسـطه ‪ 25%‬مـن حقـوق الملكيـة‪ ،‬لنصـل إلى مـا بين‬ ‫‪ 333‬مليـون دوالر و‪ 1000‬مليـون دوالر فـي السـنة كتمويـل‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫خـاص للبنيـة التحتيـة‪.‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :8‬التمويل الخاص في برنامج اإلستثمار‬ ‫‪5151‬وفيمـا يتعلـق بالتمويـل العـام‪ ،‬يمكـن أن يكـون البرنامـج‬ ‫الرأسمالي في الدورة ‪.1‬‬ ‫يسـر مصـدراً لتمويـل‬ ‫العالمـي لتسـهيالت التمويـل ال ُ‬ ‫م َّ‬ ‫برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪ .‬ومـن بيـن جميـع مصـادر‬ ‫التمويـل‪ ،‬تتيـح المسـاعدة اإلنمائيـة الرسـمية المقدمـة من‬ ‫م َّ‬ ‫يسـرة‬ ‫المؤسسـات اإلنمائيـة الثنائيـة والمتعددة األطراف ال ُ‬ ‫الشـروط األكثر مالءمة (أطول آجال اسـتحقاق‪ ،‬أدنى أسـعار‬ ‫‪38%‬‬ ‫فائـدة‪ ،‬وشـروط أبسـط)‪ .‬ويعـد البرنامج العالمي لتسـهيالت‬ ‫يسـر مرفقاً راسـخاً للتمويل الميسـر‪ ،‬ويمكنه أن‬ ‫م َّ‬‫التمويـل ال ُ‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫‪62%‬‬ ‫ينفـذ بفعاليـة برامج تلبـي احتياجات لبنـان اإلنمائية طويلة‬ ‫األمـد‪ ،‬وأن يسـاعد فـي الوقـت نفسـه علـى تخفيـف األثـر‬ ‫الواقـع علـى الالجئين‪.‬‬ ‫أساليب ويل أخرى‬ ‫ويل خاص اما‬ ‫‪5252‬ونظـرا لمحدوديـة المسـاحة أمـام لبنـان في الحصـول على‬ ‫قـروض سـيادية بسـبب ارتفـاع المديونية والتزامـات خدمة‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫الديـن الكبيـرة قياسـاً على إجمالـي الناتج المحلي (وقياسـاً‬ ‫علـى اإليـرادات الحكومية)‪ ،‬فقـد ترغب السـلطات اللبنانية‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :9‬التمويل الخاص لبرنامج اإلستثمار‬ ‫فـي تعظيـم حجـم اإلسـتثمار والتمويـل التجارييـن فـي‬ ‫الرأسمالي‪ ‬في الدورة ‪.2‬‬ ‫مجـال البنيـة التحتيـة‪ .‬ففـي مثـل هـذه المشـاريع‪ ،‬تسـتند‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫عائـدات رأس المـال وخدمـة الدين إلـى اإليـرادات التجارية‬ ‫(المتحصـل عليهـا مـن العملاء) بدالً مـن الميزانيـة الوطنية‬ ‫(التـي يمولهـا دافعـو الضرائب فـي نهاية المطـاف)‪ .‬ويمكن‬ ‫‪25%‬‬ ‫أن تحقـق هـذه المشـاريع أيضـا «أعلـى قيمـة بأقـل تكلفـة‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫‪ »value for money‬مـن خلال كفـاءة توزيعهـا للحوافـز‬ ‫والمخاطـر بيـن أطـراف القطاعيـن العـام والخاص‪ .‬ويسـاعد‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪75%‬‬ ‫هـذا علـى خفـض تكلفـة دورة حيـاة المشـاريع وتحسـين‬ ‫جـودة الخدمـة‪ .‬وتتجـاوز احتياجـات برنامـج االسـتثمار‬ ‫الرأسـمالي القـدرات الماليـة الحاليـة بكثيـر‪ ،‬وسـيتطلب‬ ‫أساليب ويل أخرى‬ ‫ويل خاص اما‬ ‫تحقيقهـا حشـد التمويـل الخـاص‪ .‬ويملـك الجهـاز المصرفي‬ ‫قـدرة محـدودة تُعـزى باألسـاس إلـى التنظيـم التحوطـي‪،‬‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫حيـث ترتفـع نسـب كفايـة رأس المـال وتتزايـد القـروض‬ ‫ووظائـف المجلـس األعلـى للخصخصـة والشـراكة (‪.)HCP‬‬ ‫ • وإضفـاء الطابـع المؤسسـي علـى الوسـاطة التجاريـة‬ ‫وسـتكفل هـذه اللوائـح تمكيـن المجلس األعلـى للخصخصة‬ ‫بغيـة تسـوية النزاعـات التجاريـة بشـكل سـريع وفعـال‬ ‫والشـراكة مـن الوفـاء الكامـل بالواليـة التي أناطها بـه قانون‬ ‫مـن حيـث التكلفة مـن أجل تحريـر الموجـودات ورأس‬ ‫تنظيـم الشـراكة بيـن القطاعيـن العـام والخاص لسـنة ‪.2017‬‬ ‫المـال العامـل اللذيـن تمـس الحاجـة إليهمـا‪ ،‬والحد من‬ ‫أعبـاء القضايـا المتراكمـة فـي المحاكـم‪.‬‬ ‫يلعـب مصـرف لبنـان المركـزي دورا ً حيويـاً فـي القطـاع‬ ‫اإلصالح ‪:10‬‬ ‫المصرفـي‪ ،‬سـواء كجهـة ناظمـة أو كمحفـز ائتمانـي؛ ولمنـع‬ ‫أن تضـع الحكومـة اللبنانيـة ‪ -‬مـن خلال وزارة الماليـة ‪-‬‬ ‫اآلثـار السـلبية غير المقصـودة على مخاطـر اإلقتصاد الكلي‪،‬‬ ‫برنامـج إسـتراتيجي إلدارة اإللتزامـات الماليـة العامـة‬ ‫يجـب أن يكـون مصـرف لبنـان شـريكاً كاملاً فـي مـا يتعلق‬ ‫واإللتزامـات المحتملـة‪ .‬تعـد اإللتزامـات الماليـة العامـة‬ ‫بسياسـة االئتمـان‪ .‬وبالتالـي‪ ،‬البـد مـن اإلحتفـاظ بسـجل‬ ‫واإللتزامـات الطارئـة سـمة مشـتركة لعقـود الشـراكة بيـن‬ ‫الضمانـات (المرتبـط بقانـون اإلقـراض المضمـون) لـدى‬ ‫القطاعيـن العـام والخـاص طويلـة األجـل التـي تنطـوي على‬ ‫مصـرف لبنـان؛ ألن معلومـات مصـرف لبنان بشـأن الشـروط‬ ‫توزيـع المخاطـر فـي مختلـف المشـاريع بيـن القطاعيـن‬ ‫االئتمانيـة والمخاطـر التحوطية الكليـة والجزئية ال يمكن أن‬ ‫العـام والخـاص‪ .‬وال يمكن أن تترتب علـى اإللتزامات المالية‬ ‫تضاهيهـا أيـة مؤسسـة أخـرى‪.‬‬ ‫العامـة واإللتزامـات الطارئـة هـذه آثار مالية كبيرة فحسـب‪،‬‬ ‫لكـن مصداقيـة الحكومـة بوصفهـا شـريكاً يعـول عليـه فـي‬ ‫الشـراكة بيـن القطاعيـن العـام والخـاص يمكـن أن تتقـوض‬ ‫الشراكات بين القطاعين‬ ‫بشـدة فـي األحـوال التـي ال تـدار فيهـا هـذه اإللتزامـات‬ ‫العام‪ ‬والخاص‬ ‫بفعاليـة‪ .‬وينبغـي أن تتضمـن هـذه اإلسـتراتيجية تفاصيـل‬ ‫مـا يلـزم مـن ترتيبات مؤسسـية ومتطلبـات مـوارد وعمليات‬ ‫‪4747‬البـد مـن وجـود بيئـة مؤاتيـة شـفافة ويمكـن التنبـؤ‬ ‫لضمـان قـدرة الحكومـة الماليـة علـى الوفـاء بـأي التزامـات‬ ‫بهـا وخاضعـة للمسـاءلة بغيـة جـذب التمويـل الخـاص‬ ‫مـن هـذا القبيـل ت ُسـتحق خلال فتـرة عقـد الشـراكة بيـن‬ ‫لإلسـتثمارات العامـة ذات األولويـة‪ .‬وتتجـاوز احتياجـات‬ ‫القطاعيـن العـام والخـاص‪.‬‬ ‫برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي قـدرة الحكوميـة الماليـة إلـى‬ ‫حـد بعيـد‪ ،‬وسـيتطلب ذلك حشـد مختلف مصـادر التمويل‪،‬‬ ‫بمـا فيهـا‪ ،‬بـل علـى رأسـها‪ ،‬التمويـل الخـاص‪ .‬ولتهيئـة البيئة‬ ‫ ‪ .‬وتعظيم التمويل لبرنامج‬ ‫المؤاتيـة الجتذاب تدفقـات كبيرة من اإلسـتثمارات الخاصة‪،‬‬ ‫اإلستثمار الرأسمالي‬ ‫سـيلزم القيـام بإصالحـات فـي عـدد مـن قطاعـات البنيـة‬ ‫التحتيـة الرئيسـية‪ .‬كمـا سـيتطلب هـذا أيضـاً مـن الحكومـة‬ ‫اللبناني‬ ‫تنظيم نفسـها بشـكل مختلـف إلدارة عمليات اسـتثمار ذات‬ ‫طابـع إسـتراتيجي أكبـر مـع القطـاع الخـاص‪ .‬وقـد اتُّخـذت‬ ‫‪4848‬مـن حيـث القيمـة‪ ،‬أشـار التقييـم إلـى إمكانيـة تمويـل‬ ‫الخطـوة األولـى فـي هـذا اإلتجـاه بإقـرار قانـون تنظيـم‬ ‫القطـاع الخـاص بشـكل كامـل لحوالـي ‪ 7462( 33%‬مليـون‬ ‫الشـراكة بيـن القطاعيـن العـام والخـاص فـي سـبتمبر‪/‬أيلول‬ ‫دوالر) مـن تكاليـف مشـاريع برنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‬ ‫‪ .2017‬ويقـرر هـذا القانـون ترتيبـات الحوكمـة والترتيبـات‬ ‫(الـدورات ‪ 1‬و‪ 2‬و‪ ،)3‬وسـتكون هـذه النسـبة ‪2967( 38‬‬ ‫مقدمــة وموجــز للتقييــم‬ ‫المؤسسـية العامـة التـي مـن شـأنها أن تبعـث بإشـارة إلـى‬ ‫مليون دوالر) في الدورة ‪( 1‬الشـكل ‪ ،7‬الشـكل ‪ .)8‬سـيكون‬ ‫القطـاع الخـاص مفادهـا وجـود إجـراءات فعالـة وشـفافة‬ ‫هـذا مفيـدا ً للبنـان‪ ،‬وذلـك فـي ظـل عـدم وجـود مسـاحة‬ ‫لتحديـد مشـاريع الشـراكة بيـن القطاعيـن العـام والخـاص‬ ‫لإلنفـاق مـن الماليـة العامة لضخ اإلسـتثمارات في مشـاريع‬ ‫وتطويرهـا والتفـاوض عليهـا وشـرائها وتنفيذهـا ورصدهـا‪.‬‬ ‫قابلـة للتمويـل‪ .‬ومـن المرجـح أن تكـون الغلبـة للتمويـل‬ ‫الحكومـي الميسـر فـي الـدورة ‪( 2‬الشـكل ‪.)9‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪4949‬أشـار التقييـم إلـى مشـاريع الكهربـاء باعتبارهـا األكثـر‬ ‫اإلصالح ‪:9‬‬ ‫جاذبيـة للقطـاع الخـاص‪ .‬ومـن حيـث القيمـة‪ ،‬تبلـغ حصـة‬ ‫أن يقـوم مجلـس الـوزراء بإنفاذ قانـون تنظيم الشـراكة بين‬ ‫قطـاع الكهربـاء مـن المشـاريع التـي يمولها القطـاع الخاص‬ ‫القطاعيـن العـام والخـاص الجديد مـن خالل تعزيـز القدرة‬ ‫بشـكل كامـل ‪ )43%( 66%‬بالنسـبة لبرنامـج اإلسـتثمار‬ ‫التشـغيلية وبالموافقـة علـى اللوائـح التنظيميـة المتعلقـة‬ ‫الرأسـمالي ككل (الـدورة ‪ ،)1‬يليـه قطـاع النفايـات الصلبـة‬ ‫بالهيـكل التنظيمـي وهيـكل التوظيـف‪ ،‬وترتيبـات التمويل‪،‬‬ ‫ •تطويـر وحـدة تسـجيل إلكترونـي بحيـث تشـمل تطوير‬ ‫اإلصالح ‪:6‬‬ ‫نافـذة إلكترونيـة موحـدة مـع التركيـز علـى التنسـيق‬ ‫أن يصـادق البرلمـان على أحـدث قانون منقح للمشـتريات‬ ‫فـي مـا بين جميـع الهيئـات الحدوديـة (كـوزارة الزراعة‬ ‫العامـة‪ .‬فقانـون سـنة ‪ ،1963‬الذي يشـكل األسـاس القانوني‬ ‫ووزارة الصحـة ووزارة الدفـاع ووزارة االقتصـاد والتجـارة‬ ‫لإلطـار المؤسسـي الحالـي للمشـتريات فـي لبنـان‪ ،‬عفا عليه‬ ‫ووزارة الصناعـة وأي هيئـة أخـرى معنيـة)؛‬ ‫الزمـن‪ ،‬ويتسـم بالمركزيـة المفرطـة وعـدم المالءمـة ممـا‬ ‫ •تدعيم نظام إدارة المخاطر؛‬ ‫يـؤدي إلـى تأخيـرات فـي المشـتريات والتنفيـذ‪ .‬ولـم يُدرج‬ ‫ •تطبيـق برنامـج كامـل للمشـغلين اإلقتصادييـن‬ ‫القانـون المنقـح للمشـتريات‪ ،‬الـذي صيـغ أصلاً فـي عـام‬ ‫رع العمليـة للتجار ذوي المخاطر‬ ‫المعتمدين‪ ،‬مما سيسـ ّ‬ ‫دم فـي صيغتـه األخيـرة إلـى البرلمـان فـي ‪12‬‬ ‫‪ ،1990‬وقُـ ّ‬ ‫ا لمنخفضـة ؛‬ ‫ديسـمبر‪/‬كانون األول ‪ ،2012‬علـى جـدول أعمـال «اللجـان‬ ‫المشـتركة» لمناقشـته إال فـي ‪ 24‬فبراير‪/‬شـباط ‪ .2015‬غيـر‬ ‫أنـه نظـرا ً لضيـق الوقـت‪ ،‬لـم يشـمل اإلسـتعراض إال جـزءا ً‬ ‫ممارسة أنشطة األعمال‬ ‫صغيـرا ً مـن القانـون‪ ،‬وبالتالـي لـم يصـادق بعـد‪.‬‬ ‫‪4646‬علـى الرغـم مـن عدم حـدوث إصالحـات كبيرة فـي أي من‬ ‫المكونـات األساسـية التـي يتألف منها مجموع نقاط مؤشـر‬ ‫التجارة‬ ‫ممارسـة أنشـطة األعمـال منـذ عـام ‪ ،2007‬هنـاك مبادرات‬ ‫إصالحيـة قيـد اإلعداد في مجاالت رئيسـية كتبسـيط تنظيم‬ ‫‪4545‬لبنـان اقتصـاد صغيـر منفتـح يتمتـع بقطـاع تجـاري كبيـر‪،‬‬ ‫ممارسـة أنشـطة األعمـال‪ ،‬وتقديـم االئتمـان للمشـاريع‬ ‫وسـيكون لبيئتـه التجاريـة المواتيـة أثـر مباشـر وإيجابـي‬ ‫الصغيـرة والمتوسـطة‪ ،‬وتسـوية حـاالت اإلعسـار‪ .‬وهـذه‬ ‫علـى تنافسـية الشـركات وإيجـاد فـرص العمـل‪ .‬وبلـغ‬ ‫إصالحـات يمكـن تنفيذهـا عاجلاً بالنظـر إلـى جاهزيتهـا‬ ‫متوسـط صـادرات لبنـان ووارداتـه مـن السـلع والخدمـات‬ ‫حاليـاً‪ ،‬وهـذا بـدوره يمكـن أن يكـون لـه تأثيـر كبيـر علـى‬ ‫‪ 124%‬مـن إجمالـي الناتـج المحلـي خلال العقـد الماضـي‪.‬‬ ‫إنشـاء مؤسسـات األعمـال الصغيـرة والمتوسـطة والنمـو‬ ‫وفـي الوقـت نفسـه‪ ،‬نجـد أن اإلجـراءات الجمركيـة معروفة‬ ‫وخلـق فـرص العمـل‪ .‬فالقيـود في هـذه المجـاالت تحد من‬ ‫بافتقارهـا إلـى الكفـاءة‪ ،‬ممـا يفـرض تكاليـف إضافيـة علـى‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫اإلمكانـات فـي مجـاالت أخرى يحقـق فيها لبنـان أداء أفضل‬ ‫الشـركات‪ .‬والحقيقـة أن مؤشـر أداء الخدمـات اللوجسـتية‬ ‫بكثيـر كتطـور األعمـال واالبتـكار‪ .‬ويكتسـب هـذا أهميـة‬ ‫للبنـك الدولـي لعـام ‪ 2016‬يشـير إلـى تأخـر أداء الجمـارك‬ ‫شـديدة فـي ظـل توقـع مسـتوى نمـو أقـوى مدفوعـاً مـن‬ ‫اللبنانيـة‪ 14.‬ومـن المبـادرات الرئيسـية علـى صعيد السياسـة‬ ‫القطـاع الخـاص كمـا يقتـرح برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪.‬‬ ‫دعمـاً لقطـاع التجـارة تحديـث اإلجـراءات الجمركيـة مـن‬ ‫وتحقيقـاً لهـذه الغايـة‪ ،‬نقتـرح اإلصالحـات التاليـة‪:‬‬ ‫خلال وضـع وتنفيـذ اإلسـتراتيجية الجمركيـة الجديـدة‪ .‬وفي‬ ‫هـذا الصـدد نقتـرح مـا يلـي‪:‬‬ ‫اإلصالح ‪:8‬‬ ‫ن البرلمـان حزمـة تشـريعات البنيـة التحتيـة‬ ‫أن يسـ ّ‬ ‫اإلصالح ‪:7‬‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫االئتمانيـة (اإلعسـار‪ ،‬مـدراء اإلعسـار‪ ،‬اإلقـراض المضمـون‪،‬‬ ‫أن يصـادق مجلـس الـوزراء علـى اإلسـتراتيجية الجمركيـة‬ ‫الوسـاطة القضائيـة)‪ .‬وسـتزيد هـذه الحزمـة فـرص حصـول‬ ‫الجديـدة التـي يجـري حاليـاً وضـع صيغتهـا النهائيـة والتـي‬ ‫القطـاع الخـاص في لبنان على التمويل‪ ،‬وال سـيما المشـاريع‬ ‫سـتتضمن السـمات الرئيسـية التاليـة‪:‬‬ ‫الصغيـرة والمتوسـطة‪ ،‬والمشـاريع الناشـئة‪ ،‬والنسـاء‪ ،‬وذلـك‬ ‫ •تبسيط اإلجراءات؛‬ ‫ •تحسين إدخال البيانات إلكترونياً؛‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫من خلال‪:‬‬ ‫ •تحديـث النظـام العـام لإلعسـار لتيسـير اسـتعادة‬ ‫ •تحديـث النظـام الحالـي القائـم علـى نظـام أسـيكودا‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫القـروض السـليمة وإعـادة هيكلة الشـركات التـي تتوفر‬ ‫(‪ )ASYCUDA‬لدعـم المدفوعـات اإللكترونيـة؛‬ ‫لها مقومات اإلسـتمرار رغم تعثرها‪ ،‬والسـماح للشـركات‬ ‫التـي ال تتوفـر لهـا مقومـات اإلسـتمرار البقـاء بالخـروج‬ ‫بكفـاءة وفعاليـة؛‬ ‫ • وتدعيم حقوق المقرضين في الموجودات المنقولة؛‬ ‫‪ 14‬حقق لبنان ‪ 2.73‬على مؤشر أداء الخدمات اللوجستية لعام ‪ 2016‬في‬ ‫األداء الجمركي‪ ،‬مقابل ‪ 3.84‬لإلمارات العربية المتحدة‪.‬‬ ‫جميـع األمـوال الحكوميـة فـي حسـاب واحـد‪ ،‬ممـا يقلـل‬ ‫السـاعة‪ .‬وسـتظل تكلفـة الكهربـاء التـي توفرهـا مؤسسـة‬ ‫تكاليـف اإلقتـراض ومنـح االئتمان ويحسـن السياسـة المالية‬ ‫كهربـاء لبنـان أقـل بكثيـر من تكلفـة الكهربـاء التـي توفرها‬ ‫للحكومـة ويسـاعد علـى الحـد مـن فـرص الفسـاد‪ .‬ولكـي‬ ‫مولـدات القطـاع الخـاص‪.‬‬ ‫يكـون حسـاب الخزانـة الموحـد فاعلاً‪ ،‬يلـزم إرسـاء أسـاس‬ ‫قانونـي سـليم لضمـان متانتـه واسـتقراره‪ .‬وسـتؤدي سياسـة‬ ‫حسـاب الخزانـة الموحـد إلـى الحـد من انتشـار الحسـابات‬ ‫الحوكمة والمؤسسات‬ ‫المصرفيـة التـي تديرهـا الـوزارات واإلدارات والهيئات‪ .‬وهذا‬ ‫بـدوره سيشـجع على زيـادة المسـاءلة المالية على مسـتوى‬ ‫‪4242‬سـئم المسـتثمرون‪ ،‬شـأنهم شـأن غيرهم‪ ،‬بدرجة كبيرة من‬ ‫القطـاع العـام‪.‬‬ ‫سـوء اإلدارة وضعـف المؤسسـات فـي لبنـان‪ ،‬ممـا يشـوه‬ ‫حسـاباتهم بشـأن المخاطـر والعائـد‪ ،‬فيزيد العائـد المتوقع‬ ‫‪4343‬يحتـاج لبنـان إلـى نظـم إلدارة اإلسـتثمارات العامـة تـؤدي‬ ‫ويقصر آجال اإلسـتحقاق الالزمة لإلسـتثمارات‪ .‬فالمؤسسات‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫وظائفهـا بشـكل جيـد علـى الرغـم من القيـود العامـة على‬ ‫ضعيفـة للغايـة‪ ،‬ويشـوبها عـدم الكفـاءة والفسـاد علـى حد‬ ‫القـدرات وتسـعى إلـى إيجـاد مشـاريع مالئمـة (بـدالً مـن‬ ‫رك حوكمـة (‪governance‬‬ ‫سـواء‪ .‬ويعانـي لبنـان مـن شـ َ‬ ‫اتبـاع «أفضـل الممارسـات») تسـتنير باألولويـات اإلنمائيـة‬ ‫‪ )trap‬يتـم فـي إطاره الحفاظ على اإلسـتقرار السياسـي من‬ ‫فـي البالد‪ .‬وتكتسـب الكفـاءة في اإلنفاق الرأسـمالي أهمية‬ ‫خلال إخضـاع الحقـوق الوطنيـة لتوافـق اآلراء فـي مـا بيـن‬ ‫متزايـدة فـي مواجهة قيـود التمويل العام في لبنـان‪ .‬ويدعو‬ ‫زعمـاء الطوائـف المختلفـة‪ ،‬وذلـك على حسـاب مؤسسـات‬ ‫كثيـرون إلـى تهيئـة مسـاحة لإلنفـاق مـن الماليـة العامـة‬ ‫قويـة تركـز علـى المصلحـة العامـة‪ .‬ونتيجـة لذلـك‪ ،‬يحـرز‬ ‫ت ُعنـى صراحـة بالحاجة إلى تحسـين إدارة الموارد الشـحيحة‬ ‫لبنـان نتائـج ضعيفـة فـي العديـد مـن مؤشـرات الحوكمـة‬ ‫وتعزيـز اإلسـتثمارالعام فـي الموجـودات الماديـة‪ ،‬كالبنيـة‬ ‫معـة‪ .‬علـى سـبيل المثـال يحتـل لبنـان المرتبـة ‪121‬‬ ‫المج َّ‬ ‫التحتيـة العامـة و‪/‬أو فـي مرافـق القطـاع اإلجتماعـي (أي‬ ‫بيـن ‪ 137‬بلـدا ً فـي المدفوعـات غيـر النظاميـة والرشـاوى‪،‬‬ ‫الصحـة والتعليـم ومـا إلـى ذلـك) التـي تسـهم فـي تحسـين‬ ‫والمرتبـة ‪ 128‬فـي ثقـة الجمهـور فـي السياسـيين‪ ،‬والمرتبـة‬ ‫رأس المال البشـري‪ .‬غير أنه إذا أريد تنفيذ برنامج اإلسـتثمار‬ ‫‪ 130‬فـي كفـاءة اإلنفـاق الحكومـي‪ 13.‬باإلضافـة إلـى ذلـك‪،‬‬ ‫الرأسـمالي بفعالية‪ ،‬يجـب التصدي للتحديـات في الوظائف‬ ‫صنـف مؤشـر مؤسسـة الشـفافية الدوليـة الخـاص بمدركات‬ ‫األساسـية بغيـة المسـاعدة علـى الحـد مـن مخاطـر تنفيـذ‬ ‫الفسـاد لبنـان فـي المرتبـة ‪ 136‬مـن بيـن ‪ 176‬بلـدا ً علـى‬ ‫المشـاريع السـيئة أو غيـر المالئمـة‪ ،‬والتجـاوزات المتكـررة‬ ‫مسـتوى العالـم في عـام ‪ ،2016‬مما جعل لبنـان بين البلدان‬ ‫فـي التكاليـف‪ ،‬والتأخيـرات فـي التنفيـذ‪ ،‬وضعـف نواتـج‬ ‫الخمسـين األكثـر فسـادا ً فـي العالـم‪ .‬ويتطلع مواطنـو لبنان‬ ‫اإلسـتثمار‪ .‬ومـن ثـم فاسـتباقاً الزديـاد النفقـات الرأسـمالية‪،‬‬ ‫إلـى حكومتهـم التخاذ تدابير ملموسـة في مكافحة الفسـاد‪.‬‬ ‫نوصـي بمـا يلي‪:‬‬ ‫وهنـا نقتـرح إجراءيـن مهمين‪:‬‬ ‫اإلصالح ‪:5‬‬ ‫اإلصالح ‪:3‬‬ ‫أن تشـرع الحكومة في إصالحات لنظم إدارة اإلسـتثمارات‬ ‫أن يصـدّ ق مجلـس الـوزراء علـى اإلسـتراتيجية الوطنيـة‬ ‫العامـة فـي لبنـان‪ ،‬وذلـك بغـرض تحسـين كفـاءة النفقـات‬ ‫لمكافحـة الفسـاد التـي يعمـل مكتـب وزير الدولة لشـؤون‬ ‫الرأسمالية‪.‬‬ ‫التنميـة اإلداريـة علـى وضعهـا حاليـاً‪.‬‬ ‫مقدمــة وموجــز للتقييــم‬ ‫‪4444‬إن تدعيـم إجـراءات الشـراء عنصـر أساسـي بالنسـبة‬ ‫للبنـان فـي إدارة مشـاريعه الكبيـرة فـي برنامـج اإلسـتثمار‬ ‫الرأسـمالي‪ .‬وقـد حظيـت المشـتريات العامـة فـي لبنـان‬ ‫اإلصالح ‪:4‬‬ ‫باهتمـام كبيـر مؤخـرا ً‪ ،‬ممـا أثـار جـدال يتعلـق بالشـفافية‪.‬‬ ‫جـل الحكومـة باإلصالحـات لتمكيـن االنتقـال إلـى‬ ‫أن تع ّ‬ ‫وعلاوة علـى ذلـك‪ ،‬مـا زال ضعف الرقابـة على المشـتريات‬ ‫حسـاب الخزانـة الموحـد‪ ،‬ممـا ّ‬ ‫ييسـر كفـاءة إدارة ومراقبـة‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫العامـة يسـهم فـي تشـويه العدالـة والمنافسـة‪ ،‬ممـا يـؤدي‬ ‫المـوارد النقديـة الحكومية‪ .‬فإنشـاء هيكل موحـد للترتيبات‬ ‫إلـى إيثـار النخبـة فـي اقتنـاص الفـرص الرئيسـية فـي األسـواق‪.‬‬ ‫المصرفيـة مـن خلال حسـاب خزانـة موحـد هـو مـن‬ ‫الممارسـات الجيـدة‪ .‬وفـي إطـار هـذا الهيـكل‪ ،‬يتـم تجميـع‬ ‫‪ 13‬المصدر‪ :‬المنتدى اإلقتصادي العالمي‪ ،‬مؤشر التنافسية العالمية‬ ‫‪.2018-2017‬‬ ‫تدفقـات الودائـع الـواردة إلـى القطـاع المصرفـي‪ .‬وللتصدي‬ ‫المحلـى سـوى ‪ 1.3‬نقطـة مئويـة خلال الفتـرة ذاتهـا‪ ،‬وهي‬ ‫لهـذا التخـوف‪ ،‬نقتـرح المبـادرة التاليـة‪:‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫انخفضـت بشـكل حـاد إلـى ‪ 0.1‬منذ عـام ‪.2011‬‬ ‫‪ 3939‬يحتـل لبنـان المرتبـة الثانيـة عالميـاً مـن حيـث نسـبة‬ ‫اإلصالح ‪:1‬‬ ‫الديـن إلـى إجمالـي الناتج المحلـي‪ ،‬مما يفـرض احتياجات‬ ‫أن تعتمـد الحكومـة اللبنانيـة إطـاراً ماليـاً يلتـزم بتحقيـق‬ ‫تمويليـة كبيـرة علـى اإلقتصـاد اللبنانـي‪ .‬وتشـير التقديرات‬ ‫ميـزان مالـي أولي إيجابـي على المدى المتوسـط كجزء من‬ ‫إلـى أن إجمالـي الديـن العـام قـد وصـل إلـى نحـو ‪153%‬‬ ‫إسـتراتيجية إلدارة الديـن تهـدف إلـى خفـض نسـبة الديـن‬ ‫مـن إجمالـي الناتـج المحلي بحلـول نهاية عـام ‪ ،2017‬وهي‬ ‫العـام إلـى إجمالي الناتـج المحلي بحيث تكون على مسـار‬ ‫نسـبة ال تفوقهـا عالميـاً إال اليابـان واليونـان‪ .‬وتبلـغ خدمـة‬ ‫أكثر اسـتدامة‪.‬‬ ‫الديـن التـي تتحملهـا الحكومـة نحـو ‪ 10%‬مـن إجمالـي‬ ‫ة بذلـك حوالـي نصـف‬ ‫الناتـج المحلـي سـنوياً‪ ،‬مسـتهلك ً‬ ‫‪4141‬فـي ظـل السياسـات الحالية‪ ،‬يتفاقم مسـار الديـن في لبنان‬ ‫اإليـرادات المحليـة‪ .‬ونتيجـة لذلـك‪ ،‬تعانـي الحكومـة مـن‬ ‫مباشـرة مـع زيـادة توليـد الكهربـاء‪ .‬ويترتـب عـن مؤسسـة‬ ‫عجـز مزمـن وكبيـر فـي الموازنـة‪ ،‬حيـث سـجل ‪ 9.6%‬مـن‬ ‫كهربـاء لبنـان عبئـاً هائالً علـى المالية العامـة للدولة‪ .‬فقبل‬ ‫إجمالـي الناتـج المحلـي فـي عـام ‪ .2016‬وعلـى الصعيـد‬ ‫انـدالع الصـراع السـوري‪ ،‬بلغ متوسـط التحويلات الحكومية‬ ‫الخارجـي‪ ،‬يعانـي لبنـان من عجز كبيـر في الميـزان التجاري‬ ‫إلى مؤسسـة كهرباء لبنان ‪ 55%‬من العجز المالي في لبنان‪.‬‬ ‫يتسـبب فـي عجـز هيكلي كبير في الحسـاب الجـاري‪ ،‬قارب‬ ‫وبلغـت التحويلات ذروتهـا فـي عامـي ‪ 2012‬و‪ ،2013‬حيث‬ ‫فـي المتوسـط ‪ 20%‬مـن إجمالـي الناتـج المحلـي منـذ عـام‬ ‫حولـت الحكومـة نحـو مليـاري دوالر سـنوياً إلـى مؤسسـة‬ ‫‪ .2011‬وفـي عـام ‪ ،2016‬بلـغ إجمالي اإلحتياجـات التمويلية‬ ‫كهربـاء لبنـان‪ .‬وبمـا أن ميـزان الماليـة العامـة الكلـي يعاني‬ ‫للقطـاع العـام ‪ 30%‬مـن إجمالـي الناتـج المحلـي‪ ،‬وأمـا في‬ ‫مـن عجـز منـذ عـام ‪ ،1992‬تكـون التحويلات إلـى مؤسسـة‬ ‫مـا يخـص القطـاع الخارجي (إجمالـي اإلحتياجـات التمويلية‬ ‫ولت فعلياً عن طريق اإلقتراض‪ .‬واسـتنادا ً‬ ‫كهربـاء لبنان قـد م ّ‬ ‫الخارجيـة) فكانـت النسـبة ‪ 171%‬مـن إجمالـي الناتـج‬ ‫إلـى وثائـق الميزانيـة السـنوية‪ ،‬يقـدر خبـراء البنـك الدولـي‬ ‫المحلـي (صنـدوق النقـد الدولـي‪ 12.)2017 ،‬ويأتـي هذا كله‬ ‫أن التحويلات الحكوميـة التراكميـة إلـى مؤسسـة كهربـاء‬ ‫فـي سـياق يسـوده نظـام سـعر صرف ثابـت معمـول به منذ‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫لبنـان بيـن عامي ‪ 1992‬و‪ 2013‬شـكلت نسـبة هائلـة قدرها‬ ‫عشـرين عامـا والـذي صار ركيزة أساسـية من ركائـز اإلقتصاد‬ ‫‪ 55.4%‬مـن إجمالـي الناتج المحلي لعـام ‪ ،2013‬ونحو ‪40%‬‬ ‫اللبنانـي‪ .‬ويسـتند هـذا النظـام‪ ،‬إلى حد كبير‪ ،‬علـى تدفقات‬ ‫مـن إجمالـي الديـن العـام في لبنـان‪ .‬وهـذا يعني أن نسـبة‬ ‫العملات األجنبيـة الـواردة‪ ،‬فـي الغالـب علـى هيئـة ودائـع‬ ‫الديـن إلـى إجمالـي الناتـج المحلي فـي لبنان كانـت لتكون‬ ‫فـي المصـارف التجاريـة‪ .‬وتعـد أسـعار الفائـدة المرتفعـة‬ ‫‪ 83%‬بـدالً مـن ‪( 138%‬فـي عـام ‪ )2013‬لو لم تكن مؤسسـة‬ ‫انعكاسـاً لعلاوة المخاطـر التـي يتعيـن دفعها فـي مثل هذا‬ ‫كهربـاء لبنـان تتكبـد خسـائر‪ .‬واسـتجابة لذلـك‪ ،‬نوصـي بـأن‬ ‫السـياق للحفـاظ علـى جاذبيـة الموجـودات اللبنانيـة‪ .‬ومـع‬ ‫تضـع الحكومـة سـقفا لتحويالتهـا إلى مؤسسـة كهربـاء لبنان‪.‬‬ ‫ذلـك‪ ،‬فقـد تباطـأت تدفقـات الودائع هذه بشـكل حـاد منذ‬ ‫عـام ‪ ،2011‬ممـا زاد مـن عـدم اليقيـن بشـأن قـدرة اإلقتصاد‬ ‫علـى تلبيـة احتياجاتـه التمويليـة‪.‬‬ ‫اإلصالح ‪:2‬‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫أن يصـدر مجلـس الـوزراء مرسـوماً ينـص علـى أن أي زيادة‬ ‫‪4040‬مـن المهـم أن يعتمـد لبنـان إصالحـات ماليـة كبيـرة‬ ‫فـي اإلمـداد بالكهربـاء مـن السـعة التوليديـة الجديـد‬ ‫تُحـدث صدمـة إيجابيـة لألسـواق والمواطنيـن وتـدل‬ ‫سـتقابلها زيـادة متناسـبة فـي متوسـط التعرفـة بمـا يكفـي‬ ‫علـى أن الحكومـة اللبنانيـة فـي طريقهـا إلـى وضـع نسـبة‬ ‫لإلبقـاء علـى التحويلات الحكوميـة إلـى مؤسسـة كهربـاء‬ ‫الديـن إلـى إجمالـي الناتـج المحلـي علـى مسـار مسـتدام‪.‬‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫لبنـان دون تأثـر بالزيـادة فـي سـعة التوليد‪ .‬المهـم أن هذا‬ ‫ويمكـن أن يتزامـن هـذا مـع زيـادة النفقـات الرأسـمالية‬ ‫سيرسـي أيضـاً مبـدأ ربط الزيـادات فـي التعرفة بتحسـينات‬ ‫المرتبطـة ببرنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي للتعويـض عن اآلثار‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫الخدمـات‪ .‬فقـد ذكـر أكثـر مـن نصـف المشـاركين فـي‬ ‫اإلنكماشـية لبرنامـج تصحيـح أوضاع الماليـة العامة‪ .‬في ظل‬ ‫الدراسـة اإلسـتقصائية لتقييـم األثـر االجتماعي التـي أجراها‬ ‫الوضـع الراهـن ‪ ،‬هنـاك تخـوف واسـع النطـاق بشـأن قـدرة‬ ‫البنـك الدولـي أنهـم سـيكونون علـى اسـتعداد لدفـع ضعف‬ ‫الحكومـة علـى تلبيـة احتياجاتهـا التمويليـة في ضـوء تباطؤ‬ ‫ميزانيتهـم التـي ينفقونهـا حاليـاً علـى الكهرباء التـي توفرها‬ ‫مؤسسـة كهربـاء لبنـان مقابل تمتعهـم بالكهربـاء على مدار‬ ‫‪ 11‬بلغ متوسط نمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي الحقيقي ‪ 1.8%‬خالل الفترة‬ ‫‪.2015-2011‬‬ ‫‪ 12‬صندوق النقد الدولي‪ ،‬المادة الرابعة‪ ،‬يناير‪/‬كانون الثاني ‪.2017‬‬ ‫الجدول ‪ :4‬قائمة موجزة باإلصالحات الهيكلية المقترحة لبرنامج االستثمار الرأسمالي‬ ‫اإلصالحات القطاعية‬ ‫اإلصالحات األفقية‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫‪ .1‬خطة متعددة السنوات لمؤسسة كهرباء لبنان لتحديد تعرفة استهالك‬ ‫إطار مالي يلتزم بتحقيق ميزان مالي أولي إيجابي على المدى المتوسط‬ ‫الكهرباء عند مستوى استرداد التكلفة على مدى فترة انتقالية بالتزامن مع‬ ‫في إطار إستراتيجية إلدارة الديون تهدف إلى خفض نسبة الدين العام إلى‬ ‫زيادات في السعة التوليدية‬ ‫إجمالي الناتج المحلي بحيث تكون على مسار أكثر استدامة‬ ‫‪ .2‬تنفيذ الخطة اإلنمائية المعتمدة لإلمداد بالغاز الطبيعي‬ ‫المياه والصرف الصحي‬ ‫‪ .1‬مصادقة البرلمان على قانون المياه‬ ‫تعديل تعرفة الكهرباء في ما يخص القدرات التوليدية الجديدة‬ ‫‪ .2‬الالئحة التنفيذية للقانون رقم ‪ 221‬المتعلقة بوضع االستقالل الذاتي‬ ‫لمؤسسات المياه‬ ‫قانون مكافحة الفساد‬ ‫‪ .3‬تعيين الموظفين لتشغيل وصيانة مرافق المياه‬ ‫النقل‬ ‫التعجيل باالنتقال إلى حساب الخزينة الموحد‬ ‫‪ .1‬اعتماد إستراتيجية النقل الوطنية‬ ‫‪ .2‬مراجعة هيكل حوكمة قطاع الطيران المدني‬ ‫إصالح نظم إدارة اإلستثمارات العامة‬ ‫‪ .3‬تحديد اإليرادات والنفقات للقطاع‬ ‫إدارة النفايات الصلبة‬ ‫المصادقة على قانون المشتريات العامة‬ ‫‪ .1‬وضع نظام تعرفة لمنتجي النفايات (األسر المعيشية)‬ ‫‪ .2‬سياسات لمساندة تنمية القدرات مع الحكومات المحلية من أجل‬ ‫التخطيط والعمليات القطاعية‬ ‫إقرار إستراتيجية جمركية جديدة‬ ‫‪ .3‬تحديد تعرفة إمدادات الطاقة المتجددة (‪ )feed-in tariffs‬للكهرباء‬ ‫المولدة من مرافق معالجة النفايات على أساس المنافع االقتصادية طويلة‬ ‫سن حزمة تشريعات للبنية التحتية اإلئتمانية‬ ‫األمد‬ ‫اإلتصاالت‬ ‫‪ .1‬اعتماد رؤية موحدة‬ ‫اللوائح التنظيمية المتعلقة بالهيكل التنظيمي وهيكل الموظفين‪ ،‬وترتيبات‬ ‫‪ .2‬نظام موحد إلصدار التراخيص لمقدمي خدمات البيانات‬ ‫التمويل ووظائف المجلس األعلى للخصخصة والشراكة‬ ‫‪ .3‬إعادة هيكلة قطاعات اإلتصاالت‬ ‫المناطق الصناعية‬ ‫خطة إستراتيجية إلدارة اإللتزامات المالية واإللتزامات المحتملة‬ ‫‪ .1‬نظام تنظيم وترخيص المنطقة اإلقتصادية الخاصة في طرابلس‬ ‫المنتـدى اإلقتصـادي العالمـي يصنـف بيئـة اإلقتصـاد الكلي‬ ‫احتواء الضغوط الناتجة عن‬ ‫مقدمــة وموجــز للتقييــم‬ ‫فـي لبنـان فـي المرتبة ‪ 133‬مـن أصل ‪ 137‬بلـدا ً‪ ،‬مع تصنيف‬ ‫الدين‪ ‬العام‬ ‫الديـن الحكومـي في المرتبـة ‪ .135‬وقد أدى هذا إلى ضعف‬ ‫االسـتثمار‪ ،‬وتسـبب فـي تراجعه في نمـوذج النمـو اللبناني‪.‬‬ ‫وبـدالً مـن ذلك‪ ،‬كان المحرك الرئيسـي هو اإلسـتهالك‪ ،‬حيث‬ ‫‪3838‬أدت اإلختلاالت الكبيـرة فـي اإلقتصـاد الكلـي فـي لبنـان‬ ‫سـاهم بمـا معدلـه ‪ 4‬نقـاط مئويـة فـي نمـو إجمالـي الناتج‬ ‫إلـى ارتفـاع تكاليف اقتراض الشـركات‪ ،‬ممـا زاد تكلفة رأس‬ ‫المحلـي الحقيقـي فـي المتوسـط‪ ،‬يعـزى ‪ 3.3%‬منهـا إلـى‬ ‫المـال‪ ،‬وحـدّ من القدرة التنافسـية‪ ،‬وعرقل اإلسـتثمار‪ .‬ومنذ‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫اإلسـتهالك الخـاص‪ ،‬فـي الفتـرة ‪ 10.2015-2005‬وفـى الوقت‬ ‫عـام ‪ ،2004‬بلغ متوسـط سـعر الفائـدة ‪ 8.8%‬علـى القروض‬ ‫نفسـه‪ ،‬لـم تبلغ مسـاهمة اإلسـتثمار في نمو إجمالـي الناتج‬ ‫بالليـرة اللبنانيـة و‪ 7.5%‬علـى القـروض بالـدوالر‪ .‬ويعـد‬ ‫ارتفـاع أسـعار الفائـدة شـيئاً حتمياً بالنسـبة القتصـاد يعتمد‬ ‫علـى التدفقـات الرأسـمالية الـواردة لتمويـل العجـز الكبيـر‬ ‫‪ 10‬بلغ متوسط نمو إجمالي الناتج المحلي الحقيقي ‪ 4.6%‬خالل الفترة‬ ‫والمسـتمر فـي الماليـة العامـة والحسـاب الجـاري‪ .‬والواقـع‬ ‫‪.2015-2005‬‬ ‫أن مؤشـر التنافسـية العالميـة ‪ 2018-2017‬الـذي أصـدره‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :6‬توزيع التكاليف في برنامج االستثمار‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :5‬توزيع التكاليف في برنامج االستثمار‬ ‫الرأسمالي حسب القطاعات في مختلف‬ ‫الرأسمالي حسب القطاعات في مختلف‬ ‫الدورات – الحكومة اللبنانية‬ ‫الدورات – مجموعة البنك الدولي‬ ‫الدورة ‪ 10799) 1‬مليون دو ر(‬ ‫الدورة ‪ 7818) 1‬مليون دو ر(‬ ‫‪1%‬‬ ‫‪2%‬‬ ‫‪13%‬‬ ‫‪8%‬‬ ‫‪20%‬‬ ‫‪20%‬‬ ‫‪6%‬‬ ‫‪9%‬‬ ‫‪17%‬‬ ‫‪21%‬‬ ‫‪27%‬‬ ‫‪26%‬‬ ‫‪12%‬‬ ‫‪18%‬‬ ‫الدورة ‪ 6454) 2‬مليون دو ر(‬ ‫الدورة ‪ 8296) 2‬مليون دو ر(‬ ‫‪3%‬‬ ‫‪1%‬‬ ‫‪1%‬‬ ‫‪1%‬‬ ‫‪9%‬‬ ‫‪22%‬‬ ‫‪18%‬‬ ‫‪44%‬‬ ‫‪14%‬‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫‪14%‬‬ ‫‪46%‬‬ ‫‪11%‬‬ ‫‪16%‬‬ ‫الدورة ‪ 5686) 3‬مليون دو ر(‬ ‫الدورة ‪ 6686) 3‬مليون دو ر(‬ ‫‪30%‬‬ ‫‪23%‬‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫‪35%‬‬ ‫‪37%‬‬ ‫‪5%‬‬ ‫‪5%‬‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫‪30%‬‬ ‫‪35%‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫ا ياه‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫ا ياه‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫النقل‬ ‫ال ف الصحي‬ ‫النقل‬ ‫ال ف الصحي‬ ‫إدارة النفايات الصعبة‬ ‫ا تصا ت‬ ‫إدارة النفايات الصعبة‬ ‫ا تصا ت‬ ‫الصناعة‬ ‫الثقافة‬ ‫الصناعة‬ ‫الثقافة‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫تمكيـن الدولة من تقديـم الخدمات األساسـية وتعزيز بنيتها‬ ‫ ‪ .‬هالعوامل المساعدة لبرنامج‬ ‫التحتيـة بطريقـة مسـتدامة‪ .‬ونورد على وجـه التحديد قائمة‬ ‫باإلصالحـات المشـتركة بيـن القطاعـات والتي من شـأنها أن‪:‬‬ ‫اإلستثمار الرأسمالي‬ ‫(أ) تسـاعد علـى إرسـاء أسـس متينة لإلسـتثمارات السـليمة‪،‬‬ ‫(ب) تعطـي إشـارات إيجابيـة كبيـرة وتنبـئ عـن حسـن‬ ‫‪3636‬عقـب انتخـاب رئيـس للبلاد فـي عـام ‪ 2016‬ومـا تلاه مـن‬ ‫النيـة للمسـتثمرين والمانحيـن‪( ،‬ج) يمكـن إنجازهـا فـي‬ ‫تشـكيل حكومـة وحـدة أنهت الجمـود السياسـي الذي طال‬ ‫فتـرة زمنيـة قصيـرة نسـبياً شـريطة توفـر اإلرادة السياسـية‪.‬‬ ‫أمـده‪ ،‬أحـرز القـادة السياسـيون تقدماً كبيراً فـي عام ‪2017‬‬ ‫كمـا نقتـرح أيضـاً إصالحـات خاصـة بقطاعـات محـددة البد‬ ‫باالتفـاق علـى تدابيـر إصلاح طـال انتظارهـا‪ .‬واألهـم مـن‬ ‫منهـا مـن أجـل النهـوض بالقطاعـات وإضفـاء مزيـد مـن‬ ‫ذلـك أن البرلمـان اللبنانـي أقر فـي ‪ 19‬أكتوبر‪/‬تشـرين األول‬ ‫الكفـاءة وضمان اسـتدامتها‪ .‬ونشـرح المجموعـة األخيرة من‬ ‫ميزانيـة ‪ ،2017‬لتكـون بذلـك أول ميزانية رسـمية للبنان منذ‬ ‫اإلصالحـات بمزيـد مـن التفصيـل فـي األقسـام التالية ضمن‬ ‫‪ 12‬سـنة‪ .‬ومـن اإلنجـازات األخـرى سـن قانـون لإلنتخابـات‬ ‫القطـاع ذي الصلـة‪ .‬ويقـدم الجـدول ‪ 4‬أدنـاه قائمـة موجزة‬ ‫البرلمانيـة‪ ،‬ممهـدا ً بذلك الطريـق أمام اإلنتخابـات البرلمانية‬ ‫باإلصالحـات المقترحـة‪.‬‬ ‫فـي مايو‪/‬أيـار ‪ ،2018‬وهـي األولـى منذ عـام ‪ ،2009‬وتعديل‬ ‫سـلم رواتـب موظفـي الخدمـة المدنيـة‪ ،‬وقانـون تنظيـم‬ ‫الشـراكة بيـن القطاعيـن العـام والخـاص‪ .‬وتبرهـن هـذه‬ ‫اإلنجـازات علـى إمكانيـة قيام السـلطات اللبنانيـة بمبادرات‬ ‫إصالحيـة مهمـة عن طريـق بنـاء توافق وطني علـى الصعيد‬ ‫السياسي‪.‬‬ ‫‪3737‬لكـن يظـل أمـراً واقعـاً أن مـن المكونـات الرئيسـية فـي أي‬ ‫برنامـج اسـتثمار رأسـمالي فعال هـو اعتماد وتنفيـذ برنامج‬ ‫إصالحـات هيكليـة‪ .‬ويقتـرح هذا القسـم من التقريـر قائمة‬ ‫بمثـل هـذه اإلصالحـات التـي مـن شـأنها أن تسـاعد علـى‬ ‫الجدول ‪ .3‬النسبة المئوية لمشاريع القطاع التي تستوفي معايير الجدوى‪.‬‬ ‫تقييم الجدوى‬ ‫الجهة المسؤولة عن إدارة التنفيذ تملك‬ ‫المشروع جاهز لإلنطالق في غضون‬ ‫القدرات الالزمة‬ ‫‪ 18-0‬شهرا ً‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪*48‬‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫المياه‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫الصرف الصحي‬ ‫‪96‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫النقل‬ ‫مقدمــة وموجــز للتقييــم‬ ‫‪***63‬‬ ‫‪**50‬‬ ‫اإلتصاالت‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫النفايات الصلبة‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪91‬‬ ‫الثقافة‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫الصناعة‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫تعني «غير حاسم»؛ إذ يلزم المزيد من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫‪ I‬‬ ‫‪ 26%‬من المشاريع تتطلب مزيدا ً من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫* ‬ ‫‪ 13%‬من المشاريع تتطلب مزيدا ً من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫** ‬ ‫‪ 38%‬من المشاريع تتطلب مزيدا ً من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫*** ‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :4‬توزيع الدورات في برنامج االستثمار‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :3‬توزيع الدورات في برنامج االستثمار‬ ‫الرأسمالي – الحكومة اللبنانية‬ ‫الرأسمالي – مجموعة البنك الدولي‬ ‫‪ ‬الدورة ‪1‬‬ ‫‪ ‬الدورة ‪1‬‬ ‫‪ 10799‬مليون دو ر‬ ‫‪ 7818‬مليون دو ر‬ ‫‪ ‬الدورة ‪2‬‬ ‫‪ ‬الدورة ‪2‬‬ ‫‪25%‬‬ ‫‪ 6454‬مليون دو ر‬ ‫‪ 8296‬مليون دو ر‬ ‫‪29%‬‬ ‫‪34%‬‬ ‫‪ ‬الدورة ‪3‬‬ ‫‪ ‬الدورة ‪3‬‬ ‫‪47%‬‬ ‫‪ 5686‬مليون دو ر‬ ‫‪ 6686‬مليون دو ر‬ ‫‪28%‬‬ ‫‪37%‬‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫الحاجـة الملحـة إلـى سـعة التوليـد اإلضافيـة والوقـت الالزم‬ ‫‪ .34‬وفقـاً لتقييـم مجموعـة البنـك الدولـي‪ ،‬تشـتمل الـدورة ‪1‬‬ ‫علـى األرجـح لتطويـر موقـع سـلعاتا‪ ،‬ينبغـي تطويـر مواقـع‬ ‫علـى حوالـي ثلـث التكلفـة اإلجماليـة لبرنامـج اإلسـتثمار‬ ‫أخـرى متوفـرة بشـكل أيسـر لضمـان إضافـة مـا ال يقـل عـن‬ ‫الرأسـمالي (‪ 7818‬مليـون دوالر)‪ ،‬والـدورة ‪ 2‬علـى حوالـي‬ ‫‪ 1000‬ميغـاواط مـن السـعة التوليديـة الجديدة إلى الشـبكة‬ ‫‪ 37%‬فـي (‪ 8296‬مليـون دوالر) ‪( 5‬الشـكل ‪ .)3‬وهذا مقارنة‬ ‫فـي أقـرب وقـت ممكـن‪ .‬ويقـدم المرفـق ج مقارنـة بيـن‬ ‫بتقديـر الحكومـة اللبنانيـة البالـغ ‪ 10799( 47%‬مليـون‬ ‫مجموعـة البنك الدولـي والحكومة اللبنانية لـدورات التنفيذ‬ ‫دوالر) و‪ 6454( 28%‬مليـون دوالر) مـن برنامـج اإلسـتثمار‬ ‫لـكلٍ من المشـاريع‪.‬‬ ‫الرأسـمالي للدورتيـن ‪ 1‬و‪ 2‬علـى الترتيب‪( 6‬الشـكل ‪ .)4‬ومن‬ ‫المهـم أن ننـوه إلى أن هذا تقييـم ثابت من جانب مجموعة‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫‪ .35‬التوزيـع القطاعـي لبرنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي لكل دورة‬ ‫البنـك الدولـي فـي مـا يخـص البـدء بتنفيـذ المشـاريع وفي‬ ‫متماثـل بوجـه عـام عنـد مقارنـة تقييـم مجموعـة البنـك‬ ‫ظـل الظروف الحالية واسـتنادا ً إلـى التجارب السـابقة‪ .‬وبنا ً‬ ‫ء‬ ‫الدولي بتقديرات الحكومة اللبنانية (الشـكل ‪ ،5‬الشـكل ‪.)6‬‬ ‫عليـه تظهـر التباينـات الرئيسـية بيـن الحكومـة اللبنانيـة‬ ‫يبلـغ تقييـم مجموعـة البنـك الدولـي ‪ 7818‬مليـون دوالر‬ ‫ومجموعـة البنـك الدولـي فـي الـدورة ‪ 17‬مـن (‪ )1‬سـدود‬ ‫لمشـاريع الـدورة ‪ ،1‬منهـا ‪ 26%‬لقطـاع النقـل‪ ،‬يليـه قطـاع‬ ‫الميـاه‪ ،‬حيـث يقل تقييـم مجموعة البنك الدولي للمشـاريع‬ ‫الكهربـاء (‪ )20%‬والصـرف الصحـي (‪ )18%‬والميـاه (‪)17%‬‬ ‫فـي الـدورة ‪ 1‬عـن تقييـم الحكومـة اللبنانيـة بمبلـغ ‪930‬‬ ‫واإلتصـاالت (‪ )9%‬والنفايـات الصلبـة (‪ .)8%‬وتبلـغ قيمـة‬ ‫مليـون دوالر؛ (‪ )2‬منشـأتي تحويل النفايـات إلى طاقة (‪750‬‬ ‫الـدورة ‪ 2‬لبرنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي ‪ 8296‬مليون دوالر‪،‬‬ ‫مليـون دوالر) فـي قطـاع النفايـات الصلبـة‪ ،‬اللتيـن تندرجان‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫منهـا ‪ 46%‬عبـارة عـن مشـاريع بنيـة تحتيـة فـي قطـاع النقـل‪.‬‬ ‫فـي الـدورة ‪ 2‬وفقـاً لتقييـم مجموعـة البنـك الدولـي مقابـل‬ ‫الـدورة ‪ 1‬وفقـاً للحكومـة اللبنانية؛ (‪ )3‬محطة سـلعاتا لتوليد‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫الكهربـاء بقـدرة ‪ 1000‬ميغـاواط (‪ 600‬مليـون دوالر)‪ ،‬التـي‬ ‫تنـدرج أيضـاً ضمـن الـدورة ‪ 2‬وفقـاً لتقييـم مجموعـة البنك‬ ‫الدولـي‪ ،‬فيمـا تنـدرج فـي الـدورة ‪ 1‬وفقـاً لتقييـم الحكومـة‬ ‫اللبنانيـة‪ 8.‬وفـي مـا يتعلـق بالتبايـن األخيـر‪ ،‬وبالنظـر إلـى‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪ 5‬تشمل هذه األرقام تكاليف استمالك األراضي بمبلغ ‪ 311‬مليون دوالر‬ ‫و‪ 1267‬مليون دوالر في الدورتين ‪ 1‬و‪ 2‬على التوالي‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 6‬تشمل هذه األرقام تكاليف استمالك األراضي بمبلغ ‪ 693‬مليون دوالر‬ ‫و‪ 1025‬مليون دوالر في الدورتين ‪ 1‬و‪ 2‬على التوالي‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 9‬يضم برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي مشاريع بقيمة ‪ 140‬مليون دوالر‬ ‫‪ 7‬يعكس هذا أيضاً التباينات في الدورة ‪.2‬‬ ‫قدمتها الحكومة اللبنانية ولم يتم تقييمها ضمن أي دورة بسبب نقص‬ ‫‪ 8‬أسفر تقييم مجموعة البنك الدولي عن إدراج بعض المشاريع ضمن‬ ‫المعلومات‪.‬‬ ‫الدورة ‪ 2‬وقد أدرجتها الحكومة اللبنانية ضمن الدورة ‪.1‬‬ ‫‪3232‬يتبيـن مـن تقييـم مشـاريع برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‬ ‫ويبـرز قطـاع االتصـاالت بوصفـه الوحيـد الـذي يفتقـر إلـى‬ ‫مـن حيـث النمو والتوظيـف واحتـواء كافة فئـات المجتمع‬ ‫إسـتراتيجية قطاعيـة رسـمية‪.‬‬ ‫أن معظـم المقتـرح منهـا فـي قطاعـات الكهربـاء والنقـل‬ ‫والثقافـة والصناعـة ذو تأثيـر عالـي اإلسـتدامة علـى‬ ‫‪3131‬من المتوقع أن تؤدي الغالبية العظمى من مشـاريع برنامج‬ ‫النمو(الجـدول ‪ .)2‬باإلضافـة إلـى ذلـك‪ ،‬يُتوقـع أن تـؤدي‬ ‫اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي إلـى خفـض التكاليـف فـي قطاعاتها‪،‬‬ ‫معظـم المشـاريع المنجـزة فـي قطاعـات الصناعـة والثقافة‬ ‫وبإمـكان عـدد ال بـأس به منها اجتـذاب اسـتثمارات أجنبية‬ ‫والنقـل والنفايـات الصلبـة والكهربـاء إلى خلق عـدد كبير أو‬ ‫مباشـرة‪ .‬ويُتوقـع أن تـؤدي هـذه المشـاريع إلـى خفـض‬ ‫متوسـط مـن فـرص العمـل‪.‬‬ ‫هيـكل التكاليـف إلـى حـد كبيـر فـي قطاعاتهـا ذات الصلة‪.‬‬ ‫وينطبـق هـذا بصفـة خاصـة علـى جميـع مشـاريع قطاعات‬ ‫‪3333‬يتبيـن مـن تقييـم جـدوى مشـاريع برنامـج اإلسـتثمار‬ ‫الكهربـاء والميـاه والصـرف الصحـي والصناعـة‪ ،‬فضلاً عـن‬ ‫الرأسـمالي أن معظم مشـاريع قطـاع الثقافة وحوالي نصف‬ ‫الغالبيـة العظمـى مـن مشـاريع قطاعـي النقـل والثقافـة‪.‬‬ ‫مشـاريع قطاعـات الصناعـة واإلتصـاالت والنفايـات الصلبة‬ ‫علاوة علـى ذلـك فـإن الغالبية العظمـى من مشـاريع قطاع‬ ‫والكهربـاء جاهـزة للتنفيـذ خلال ‪ 18‬شـهراً (الجـدول ‪.)3‬‬ ‫الكهربـاء (‪ )83%‬والنفايـات الصلبـة (‪ )83%‬وقطـاع الثقافـة‬ ‫علاوة على ذلـك‪ ،‬تتمتع الجهة المسـؤولة عـن إدارة التنفيذ‬ ‫(‪ )73%‬قـادرة علـى اجتـذاب اسـتثمارات أجنبيـة مباشـرة‪.‬‬ ‫بالقـدرات الالزمـة لجميع المشـاريع فـي قطاعـات النفايات‬ ‫الصلبـة والثقافـة والصناعـة ومعظـم المشـاريع فـي قطـاع‬ ‫النقـل (‪ )96%‬وقطـاع اإلتصـاالت (‪.)63%‬‬ ‫الجدول ‪ .2‬النسبة المئوية لمشاريع القطاع التي تستوفي معايير النمو والتوظيف واحتواء كافة فئات المجتمع‪.‬‬ ‫تقييم من حيث النمو والتوظيف واحتواء كافة فئات المجتمع‬ ‫المشروع يخلق عددا كبيرا ً أو‬ ‫المشروع المنجز يسهم إسهاما كبيرا‬ ‫للمشروع المنجز تأثير عالي‬ ‫متوسطاً من الوظائف‬ ‫في توفير فرص العمل عالية اإلنتاجية‬ ‫االستدامة على النمو‬ ‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪74‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪*78‬‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫المياه‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫الصرف الصحي‬ ‫‪96‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪58‬‬ ‫النقل‬ ‫‪**38‬‬ ‫‪***25‬‬ ‫‪**13‬‬ ‫اإلتصاالت‬ ‫مقدمــة وموجــز للتقييــم‬ ‫‪83‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫النفايات الصلبة‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪55‬‬ ‫‪82‬‬ ‫الثقافة‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫الصناعة‬ ‫تعني «غير حاسم»‪ ،‬إذ يلزم المزيد من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫‪ I‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪ 22%‬من المشاريع تتطلب مزيدا ً من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫*‬ ‫ ‬ ‫‪ 13%‬من المشاريع تتطلب مزيدا ً من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫** ‬ ‫‪ 25%‬من المشاريع تتطلب مزيدا ً من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫*** ‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫األجنبيـة مـن الديـن العـام يعـادل نحـو ‪ 56%‬مـن إجمالـي‬ ‫فرصـاً للمشـاركة فـي اإلسـتثمارات الحيويـة ذات األولويـة‬ ‫الناتـج المحلـي (نهايـة أكتوبر‪/‬تشـرين األول ‪.)2017‬‬ ‫الوطنيـة التـي تسـتحوذ علـى اهتمـام دولـي كبيـر وربمـا‬ ‫تحظـى بتمويـل مشـترك‪ .‬غير أنه لكـي تتسـنى ترجمة هذه‬ ‫الفـرص إلـى خدمـات عامـة أفضـل (ومربحة)‪ ،‬هنـاك حاجة‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫المجمعة‬ ‫ ‪ .‬دالنتائج‬ ‫لوضـع أطـر قانونيـة وتنظيميـة مح ّ‬ ‫دثـة ومسـتقرة‪.‬‬ ‫‪3030‬يكشـف التقييـم اإلسـتراتيجي لمشـاريع برنامـج االسـتثمار‬ ‫‪2929‬تولـى صنـدوق النقـد الدولي قيـادة تحليل أوضـاع اإلقتصاد‬ ‫الرأسـمالي أن الغالبيـة العظمـى مـن المشـاريع تعـد ذات‬ ‫الكلـي والماليـة العامـة لبرنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪ ،‬وهو‬ ‫أولويـة إسـتراتيجية بالنسـبة لقطاعهـا‪ ،‬وهـي جـزء مـن‬ ‫مـن المدخالت الضروريـة لتحديد الحيز المتـاح في المالية‬ ‫إسـتراتيجية قطاعيـة رسـمية ( الجـدول ‪ .)1‬وتشـكل جميـع‬ ‫العامـة‪ ،‬وقـد تـم تقديمه فـي مؤتمر سـيدر «‪ »CEDRE‬في‬ ‫المشـاريع فـي قطاعـات المياه والصـرف الصحـي والنفايات‬ ‫باريـس‪ .‬وال يسـتطيع لبنـان تجاهـل قيـود الماليـة العامـة‪،‬‬ ‫الصلبـة واالتصـاالت والثقافـة والصناعة أولويات إسـتراتيجية‬ ‫وينبغـي علـى الحكومـة اللبنانيـة أن تهـدف إلـى إدراجهـا‬ ‫فـي قطاعاتهـا ذات الصلـة‪ ،‬فيمـا تعـد معظـم المشـاريع‬ ‫وأخذهـا فـي االعتبـار فـي البرنامـج النهائـي‪ .‬وال ينطبق هذا‬ ‫فـي قطاعـي النقـل (‪ )92%‬والكهربـاء (‪ )83%‬ذات أولويـة‬ ‫علـى النفقـات الحكومية فحسـب‪ ،‬بـل أيضاً علـى اإليرادات‪.‬‬ ‫إسـتراتيجية‪ .‬وفـي مـا يتعلـق بالتكامل اإلسـتراتيجي‪ ،‬تشـكل‬ ‫وفـي مـا يخـص النفقـات الحكوميـة‪ ،‬تشـكل الشـراكات بين‬ ‫جميـع المشـاريع فـي قطاعـات الميـاه والصـرف الصحـي‬ ‫القطاعيـن العـام والخـاص إسـتراتيجية مهمـة‪ ،‬ويمكـن أن‬ ‫والنفايـات الصلبـة والثقافـة والصناعـة جزءا ً من إسـتراتيجية‬ ‫يكـون قانـون تنظيم الشـراكة بيـن القطاعين العـام والخاص‬ ‫قطاعيـة رسـمية‪ .‬وتنـدرج ‪ 87%‬من مشـاريع قطـاع الكهرباء‬ ‫الـذي صـدر مؤخـرا ً وسـيلة فاعلـة‪ .‬وعلـى جانب اإليـرادات‪،‬‬ ‫فـي إسـتراتيجية قطاعيـة وطنيـة أوسـع نطاقـا‪ ،‬فيمـا تندرج‬ ‫ال تعـد إيـرادات قطـاع اإلتصـاالت مـن أعلـى مصـادر دخـل‬ ‫‪ 54%‬مـن مشـاريع قطـاع النقـل فـي إسـتراتيجية قطاعيـة‪.‬‬ ‫الحكومـة المثقلـة بالديـون فحسـب‪ ،‬بـل أيضاً مصـدرا نادرا‬ ‫وم بالعملات‬ ‫للعملـة الصعبـة‪ ،‬مـع مالحظـة أن الجـزء المقـ َّ‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫الجدول ‪ .1‬النسبة المئوية لمشاريع القطاع التي تستوفي المعايير اإلستراتيجية‪.‬‬ ‫التقييم اإلستراتيجي‬ ‫المشروع ينتمي إلى‬ ‫المشروع سيساعد على‬ ‫المشروع سيساعد على خفض‬ ‫المشروع يمثل أولوية‬ ‫هيكل تكاليف القطاع بدرجة كبيرة اجتذاب استثمارات أجنبية إستراتيجية قطاعية رسمية‬ ‫إستراتيجية لهذا القطاع‬ ‫مباشرة في القطاع‬ ‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪**87‬‬ ‫‪83‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪*83‬‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫المياه‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫الصرف الصحي‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫‪54‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪67‬‬ ‫‪92‬‬ ‫النقل‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪**38‬‬ ‫‪**25‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫اإلتصاالت‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪83‬‬ ‫‪L‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫النفايات الصلبة‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪***73‬‬ ‫‪**82‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫الثقافة‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪****50‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫الصناعة‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫* أقل من ‪ 10%‬من المشاريع يتطلب مزيدا ً من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫** ‪ 13%‬من المشاريع يتطلب مزيدا ً من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫*** ‪ 18%‬من المشاريع يتطلب مزيدا ً من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫*** مشروع واحد من المشروعين يتطلب مزيدا ً من المعلومات لتقييم البيان‪.‬‬ ‫‪ L‬غير متصل‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫‪2525‬يضـم برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي ‪ 11‬مشـروعاً محـدداً‬ ‫القانـون‪ .‬فمـن المحتمـل أن تكتسـب الشـركات العاملـة في‬ ‫بشـكل منفصـل فـي القطـاع بقيمـة إجماليـة قدرهـا ‪264‬‬ ‫المنطقـة اإلقتصاديـة الخاصـة فـي طرابلـس ميـزة تنافسـية‬ ‫مليـون دوالر‪ ،‬تنفَّـذ علـى دورتيـن ‪ 1‬و‪ ،2‬وتغطـي الفتـرة‬ ‫كبيـرة علـى الشـركات األخـرى البعيـدة عـن المنطقـة مـا‬ ‫‪ .2025-2018‬وترتبـط هـذه المشـاريع بقطـاع اقتصـادي‬ ‫دامـت هـذه الفئـة األولـى تدخـل سـوقاً قائمـة‪ .‬ونتيجـة‬ ‫أكبـر يمكـن تعريفـه بأنـه الخدمـات المضافة عاليـة القيمة‪،‬‬ ‫لذلـك‪ ،‬سـتجد الشـركات حافـزا ً لإلنتقـال إلـى المنطقـة على‬ ‫وتشـمل السـياحة والتـراث‪ ،‬واإلبـداع والمعرفـة‪ .‬وقـد أثبتت‬ ‫حسـاب التوسـع‪ .‬بالتالـي يصبـح حتميـاً منح إمكانيـة دخول‬ ‫التجربـة حتـى اآلن فـي لبنـان أن دعـم التوعيـة واإلسـتفادة‬ ‫هـذه المنطقـة للشـركات التـي توسـع أعمالهـا‪ .‬وعلـى وجه‬ ‫مـن الموجـودات التراثيـة فـي المـدن يـؤدي إلـى تحسـين‬ ‫التحديـد‪ ،‬ينبغـي أن تكـون سـوق التصديـر هدفـاً رئيسـياً‬ ‫التنميـة اإلقتصاديـة المحليـة وإيجاد فرص العمل‪ ،‬وال سـيما‬ ‫بفضـل موقـع المنطقـة‪ ،‬وبإمـكان السـلطات وضـع تدابيـر‪/‬‬ ‫فـي المـدن المتوسـطة و الصغيـرة الحجـم فـي المناطـق‬ ‫شـروط كافيـة لضمـان إتاحـة الوصـول للشـركات المصـ ّ‬ ‫درة‪.‬‬ ‫التـي لـم تأخـذ نصيبهـا مـن التطـور‪ .‬كمـا أنـه يعـزز قـدرة‬ ‫المجتمعـات المحليـة علـى العيـش بطريقة شـاملة للجميع‪،‬‬ ‫ويجتـذب اسـتثمارات كبيـرة مـن القطـاع الخـاص‪.‬‬ ‫اإلرث الثقافي‬ ‫‪2323‬شـكلت السـياحة القائمـة علـى التـراث الثقافـي والحضـري‬ ‫ ‪ .‬جمنهجية التقييم‬ ‫تقليديـاً ركيـزة قويـة مـن ركائـز اإلقتصـاد اللبنانـي‪ .‬فالمدن‬ ‫اللبنانيـة مـن أقـدم المناطق المأهولة باسـتمرار فـي العالم‪.‬‬ ‫‪2626‬طلبـت الحكومـة اللبنانيـة مـن مجموعـة البنـك الدولـي‬ ‫ونـاً اساسـياً النصهـار المجتمعـات‬ ‫ويعـد هـذا الثـراء مك ّ‬ ‫إجـراء تقييـم لبرنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪ ،‬الـذي يضـم‬ ‫المحليـة فـي لبنان‪ ،‬كمـا كان تاريخياً أحد محـركات االبتكار‪.‬‬ ‫قائمـة بأكثـر مـن ‪ 280‬مشـروعاً‪ ،‬كبيـراً وصغيـراً‪ ،‬بنطاقـات‬ ‫فليـس مـن قبيل المصادفة أن لبنان هـو البلد الذي انطلقت‬ ‫جغرافيـة مختلفـة‪ .‬وفـي ضـوء العجـز المـادي المشـار إليه‬ ‫منـه األبجديـة‪ .‬وبالتالـي كانـت السـياحة فـي لبنـان دائمـاً‬ ‫آنفـاً‪ ،‬يمكـن أن يكـون برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي أداة‬ ‫مسـاهماً رئيسـياً فـي اإلقتصـاد‪ .‬فمـن مسـتوطنات العصـر‬ ‫عالـة للمسـاعدة علـى تعزيـز البنيـة التحتيـة المتداعيـة‬ ‫فّ‬ ‫الحجـري إلـى المـدن الفينيقيـة‪ ،‬ومـن المعابـد الرومانيـة‬ ‫فـي لبنـان‪ ،‬ممـا يسـهم فـي دفـع عجلـة النمـو اإلقتصـادي‪.‬‬ ‫النسـاك المنحوتـة فـي الصخـر‪ ،‬ومـن القلاع‬ ‫إلـى صوامـع ّ‬ ‫ويتيـح تاريـخ البنـك الدولـي طويـل األمـد مـن العمـل مـع‬ ‫الصليبيـة إلـى المسـاجد المملوكيـة والحمامـات العثمانيـة‪،‬‬ ‫لبنـان لخبرائـه نظـرة متعمقة علـى الوضع السـائد في البالد‬ ‫تبـرز مواقـع تراثيـة ذات أهميـة عالميـة في كل أنحـاء لبنان‬ ‫ورؤيـة قطاعيـة ثاقبـة‪ ،‬باإلضافة إلى المعرفـة التقنية‪ ،‬لتقييم‬ ‫علـى نحـو يعكـس تاريـخ العالم القديـم والحديـث‪ .‬وحظي‬ ‫قائمـة مشـاريع برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪.‬‬ ‫هـذا باعتـراف واسـع مـن المجتمـع الدولـي؛ ومـع وجـود ‪5‬‬ ‫مواقـع علـى قائمـة اليونسـكو للتـراث العالمـي فـي لبنـان‪،‬‬ ‫‪2727‬يرتكـز تصميـم إطـار التقييـم علـى أربـع فئـات رئيسـية‪،‬‬ ‫فـإن لديـه أعلـى كثافـة فـي هـذه المواقـع علـى الصعيـد‬ ‫وهـي‪( :‬أ) التقييم اإلسـتراتيجي‪( ،‬ب) تقييـم معدالت النمو‬ ‫العالمـي مقارنـة بعـدد سـكانه‪.‬‬ ‫والتوظيـف واحتـواء كافـة فئـات المجتمـع‪( ،‬ج) تقييـم‬ ‫الجـدوى‪( ،‬د) تقييـم احتياجـات اإلصلاح‪ .‬ويـورد المرفـق‬ ‫‪2424‬تقـدر مسـاهمة السـياحة فـي إجمالـي الناتـج المحلـي‬ ‫ب «المذكـرة التوجيهيـة إلطـار تقييـم برنامـج اإلسـتثمار‬ ‫اللبنانـي بنسـبة ‪ ،25%‬وهـي أعلـى بكثيـر مـن المتوسـط‬ ‫مقدمــة وموجــز للتقييــم‬ ‫الرأسـمالي»‪ ،‬التـي تحـدد المعاييـر المعينـة المسـتخدمة‪،‬‬ ‫العالمـي البالـغ ‪ ،14%‬وبهـذا يتفـوق علـى أي بلـد آخر في‬ ‫وتتضمـن إرشـادات حـول كيفيـة إجـراء التقييـم‪.‬‬ ‫الشـرق األوسـط ويزيـد مرتين على وجهة سـياحية رئيسـية‬ ‫كإيطاليـا (‪ .)10%‬وعلـى الرغم من عناصر الهشاشـة بسـبب‬ ‫‪2828‬يتيـح التقييم فرصة السـتعراض فـرص اإلسـتثمارات الخاصة‬ ‫األوضـاع اإلقليميـة والتقلبـات التـي يشـهدها هـذا القطـاع‪،‬‬ ‫فـي لبنـان‪ .‬فلـم تعـد مشـاريع اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‬ ‫ظلـت السـياحة قطاعـاً قويـاً لتوفيـر فـرص العمل‪ ،‬وال سـيما‬ ‫اختصاصـاً حصريـاً لهيئـات اإلسـتثمار الحكوميـة‪ .‬وقـد‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫العمـال ذوي المهـارات المتدنيـة‪ ،‬ويعمـل بهـذا القطاع نحو‬ ‫وجـد العديـد مـن البلـدان أن القطـاع الخـاص يوفـر‬ ‫‪ 24%‬مـن األيـدي العاملـة فـي لبنـان‪ .‬وقبـل تأثيـر األزمـة‬ ‫اسـتثمارات جيـدة النوعيـة تحقـق أعلـى جودة بأقـل تكلفة‬ ‫السـورية‪ ،‬بلـغ عـدد زوار لبنـان ‪ 2.5‬مليـون زائـر فـي السـنة‬ ‫(‪ )money for value‬فـي مجـاالت البنيـة التحتيـة‬ ‫(‪ .)2010‬لكـن سـرعان مـا انخفضـت األرقـام بعد ذلـك‪ ،‬وأما‬ ‫الحيويـة‪ ،‬كالطاقـة واإلتصـاالت والنقـل ومـا إلـى ذلـك‪ .‬وفي‬ ‫فـي اآلونـة األخيـرة وبفضل تعزيـز الجهود من أجل اسـتقرار‬ ‫الوقـت نفسـه يـرى المسـتثمرون في المشـاريع الرأسـمالية‬ ‫لبنـان‪ ،‬فقـد اتخـذ هـذا اإلتجـاه مسـارا ً إيجابياً‪.‬‬ ‫‪1919‬وباعتمـاد هـذا اإلصلاح الـذي تمـس الحاجة إليه‪ ،‬سـيتعين‬ ‫تشـكل مصـدرا ً رئيسـياً لتلـوث الهـواء ومسـتجمعات الميـاه‬ ‫علـى لبنـان أن يولـي عنايتـه إلـى العوامـل المهمـة‪،‬‬ ‫والمناطـق السـاحلية‪ .‬وفـي صيـف عـام ‪ ،2015‬أثـارت تلال‬ ‫ومن ضمنها اآلتي‪:‬‬ ‫القمامـة المتراكمـة فـي شـوارع لبنـان أزمـة أسـفرت عـن‬ ‫ • مراعاة اآلثار على المالية العامة‪.‬‬ ‫مظاهـرات شـعبية واسـعة‪.‬‬ ‫ •إدارة المخاطـر والفـرص للتأكـد مـن وصـول منافـع‬ ‫النطـاق العريـض إلـى مختلـف المناطـق وفئـات الدخـل‬ ‫‪1616‬يضم برنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي بنداً واحداً يتعلق بتنفيذ‬ ‫والفئـات اإلجتماعيـة‪.‬‬ ‫برنامـج اسـتثماري ينفـذ خلال دورة واحـدة فـي قطـاع‬ ‫ •وتجنب ظهور احتكار القلة في القطاع‪.‬‬ ‫النفايـات الصلبـة‪« :‬إدارة النفايـات الصلبـة لتشـمل جميـع‬ ‫اللبنانييـن‪ ،‬بمـا فـي ذلك الجمـع والفرز والمعالجـة ومواقع‬ ‫المطامر» بإجمالي ‪ 1400‬مليون دوالر‪ .‬وحددت المناقشات‬ ‫الصناعة‬ ‫اإلضافيـة التـي جرت اسـتثمارات معالجة النفايـات المركزية‬ ‫التاليـة‪( :‬أ) ثالثـة مرافـق لتحويـل النفايـات إلـى طاقـة فـي‬ ‫المناطـق السـاحلية الحضرية (بيروت‪ ،‬والشـمال في محيط‬ ‫‪2020‬لقـد تراجـع أداء قطـاع الصناعة في لبنـان مقارنة بالمعايير‬ ‫مدينـة طرابلس‪ ،‬وجنوب لبنان بالقـرب من صيدا‪/‬الزهراني)‪،‬‬ ‫اإلقليميـة و العالميـة خلال السـنوات الماضيـة (البنـك‬ ‫و(ب) برامـج تقليديـة قائمـة علـى تصنيـع السـماد العضوي‬ ‫الدولـي‪ 4.)2016 ،‬ومـن آثـار ذلـك عـدم توفيـر فـرص عمـل‬ ‫والطمـر الصحـي للمناطـق الريفيـة فـي لبنـان فـي منطقـة‬ ‫كافيـة للعمالـة الماهـرة وتفاقـم اختلاالت اإلقتصـاد الكلـي‬ ‫عـكار الشـمالية وسـهل البقـاع‪ .‬وسـتتطلب برامـج تحويـل‬ ‫والماليـة العامـة‪ .‬وثمـة إمكانيـة لتقويـة القطـاع الصناعـي‬ ‫النفايـات إلـى طاقـة ‪ 375‬مليـون دوالر مضروبـة فـي ثالثـة‪،‬‬ ‫مـن خلال السياسـات الصناعيـة المكانيـة‪ ،‬وال سـيما المـدن‬ ‫فيمـا سـيتطلب البرنامجـان فـي المناطـق الريفيـة معـاً نحو‬ ‫الصناعيـة والمناطـق اإلقتصاديـة الخاصـة‪ ،‬التـي تدعم زيادة‬ ‫‪ 175‬مليـون دوالر‪ .‬وباإلضافـة إلـى ذلـك‪ ،‬سـيلزم نحـو ‪100‬‬ ‫اإلسـتثمار والتنافسـية فـي القطـاع الصناعي‪ .‬ويقـدم برنامج‬ ‫مليـون دوالر لتطهيـر المئـات مـن مكبـات النفايـات غيـر‬ ‫اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي مشـروعين مـن هـذا القبيـل‪ .‬يشـمل‬ ‫القانونيـة فـي لبنـان‪ ،‬وإعـادة تأهيـل بعضهـا إلـى مطامـر‬ ‫األول‪ ،‬وتقـوده وزارة الصناعـة‪ ،‬تنفيـذ المرحلـة الثانيـة مـن‬ ‫نفايـات صحيـة‪.‬‬ ‫ثلاث مـدن صناعيـة فـي القـاع وبعلبك وتربـل‪ ،‬وأمـا الثاني‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫فهـو المنطقـة اإلقتصاديـة الخاصـة فـي طرابلـس‪.‬‬ ‫‪2121‬تهـدف المـدن الصناعيـة المقترحـة إلـى تحسـين تنافسـية‬ ‫اإلتصاالت‬ ‫الصناعـات اللبنانيـة عـن طريـق (أ) توفيـر البنيـة التحتيـة‬ ‫الحيويـة‪ ،‬و(ب) تأجيـر األراضـي البلديـة علـى المـدى‬ ‫‪1717‬يتمتـع لبنـان بفرصـة فريـدة لوضـع سياسـة شـاملة‬ ‫الطويـل بأسـعار منخفضـة جـداً للصناعـات فـي المنطقـة‬ ‫جديـدة لمعالجـة مختلـف اإلختلاالت التـي تؤثـر‬ ‫نظـراً لمـا تشـكله أسـعار األراضـي مـن عقبـة رئيسـية أمـام‬ ‫علـى نمـو وتطويـر البنيـة التحتيـة والخدمـات فـي‬ ‫تنافسـية الصناعـة فـي لبنان‪ .‬ومع ذلك تسـتطيع السـلطات‬ ‫مجمـل القطاعـات‪ .‬تتمثـل الفرصـة الرئيسـية فـي‬ ‫المسـاعدة علـى ضمـان النجـاح مـن خلال تعزيـز دور‬ ‫االسـتفادة مـن مسـتوى التعليـم والمهـارات فـي لبنـان‪،‬‬ ‫القطـاع الخـاص لضمـان اجتـذاب هـذه المواقـع لشـركات‬ ‫وذلـك بتوفيـر بنيـة تحتيـة حديثـة فـي نطاقهـا العريـض‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫واسـتثمارات جديـدة‪.‬‬ ‫وتطبيقـات تكنولوجيـا المعلومـات واإلتصـاالت‪ .‬وهـذا مـن‬ ‫شـأنه تعزيـز تنافسـية قطـاع الخدمـات‪ ،‬وخلـق فـرص عمـل‬ ‫‪2222‬تقـع المنطقـة اإلقتصاديـة الخاصـة فـي طرابلـس بجـوار‬ ‫ومداخيـل للعمالـة الماهـرة‪.‬‬ ‫مينـاء طرابلـس‪ ،‬ممـا يعطيها ميزة بالغة األهميـة‪ .‬والحقيقة‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫أنـه يُتوقـع أن تتجـاوز دور التجـارة والخدمـات اللوجيسـتية‬ ‫‪1818‬يضـم برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي ‪ 8‬مشـاريع اسـتثمارية‬ ‫لتطويـر مدينـة صناعيـة الجتـذاب اإلسـتثمارات األجنبيـة‬ ‫محـددة بشـكل منفصـل فـي قطـاع اإلتصـاالت بقيمـة‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫والمحليـة فـي أنشـطة التصنيـع وغيرهـا مـن األنشـطة ذات‬ ‫إجماليـة قدرهـا ‪ 700‬مليـون دوالر‪ ،‬وتنفـذ خلال الـدورة‬ ‫الصلـة‪ .‬وهنـاك محاذيـر محوريـة فـي مـا يتعلـق بالحوافـز‬ ‫األولـى التـي تغطي الفتـرة ‪ .2021-2018‬يتمثـل الهدف في‬ ‫الماليـة التـي ستسـتفيد منها الشـركات العاملة فـي المنطقة‬ ‫تحديـث البنيـة التحتيـة للنطـاق العريـض والمنصـة الرقمية‬ ‫اإلقتصاديـة الخاصـة فـي طرابلـس‪ ،‬والتـي ينـص عليهـا‬ ‫فـي لبنـان‪ ،‬وتوفير خدمات إنترنت وخدمات سـحابية أسـرع‬ ‫للحكومـة والشـركات والمسـتهلكين فـي لبنـان‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 4‬البنك الدولي (‪ ،)2016‬مرصد االقتصاد اللبناني‪ :‬اقتصاد جغرافي للمخاطر‬ ‫والمكافآت‪ ،‬ربيع ‪.2016‬‬ ‫المتعلـق بخدمـات الميـاه أو الحفـاظ عليـه‪ .‬فقـد ازدادت‬ ‫القـدرة التوليديـة وحدهـا ال تكفـي؛ ومـن دون تعديلات‬ ‫علـى مـر السـنين حاجـة المواطنيـن إلـى مصـادر ميـاه‬ ‫أخـرى‪ ،‬سـيؤدي التوسـع فـي إمـدادات الكهربـاء إلـى زيادة‬ ‫وخدمـات صـرف صحـي إضافيـة بسـبب النمـو السـكاني‪،‬‬ ‫فـي الدعـم الحكومـي لمؤسسـة كهربـاء لبنـان‪ ،‬ممـا يـؤدي‬ ‫والتباطـؤ االقتصـادي‪ ،‬والتوسـع الحضري‪ ،‬ونقـص اإلمدادات‪،‬‬ ‫إلـى اتسـاع هـوة عجـز الماليـة العامـة‪ .‬وعلـى هـذا النحـو‪،‬‬ ‫وعـدم قدرة مؤسسـات الميـاه على تلبية األحجـام المطلوبة‬ ‫فلا بـد مـن وضع خطـة متعددة السـنوات لمؤسسـة كهرباء‬ ‫وجـودة الخدمـة فـي قطاعـي ميـاه الشـرب والصـرف الصحـي‪.‬‬ ‫لبنـان لتحديـد تعرفـة اسـتهالك الكهربـاء عنـد مسـتوى‬ ‫اسـترداد التكلفـة علـى مـدى فتـرة انتقاليـة متوسـطة األجـل‪.‬‬ ‫النقل‬ ‫‪1010‬األهـم مـن ذلـك‪ ،‬يجـب أن تعالـج اإلصالحـات أيضـاً تكلفة‬ ‫توليـد الكهربـاء المرتفعـة في لبنـان‪ ،‬والتي يرتبـط معظمها‬ ‫باسـتخدام زيـت الوقـود باعتبـاره أحـد ركائز اإلنتـاج‪ .‬فبدالً‬ ‫‪1313‬تشـير التقديرات إلى أن مشـكلة اإلزدحام المروري المزمنة‬ ‫مـن ذلـك‪ ،‬يمكـن أن تعمل معامـل توليد الكهربـاء في لبنان‬ ‫فـي لبنـان تكلـف اإلقتصـاد بيـن ‪ 5‬و‪ 10%‬مـن إجمالـي‬ ‫بالغـاز الطبيعـي‪ ،‬وهـو أقـل تكلفة وأكثـر كفاءة وأقـل تلويثاً‬ ‫الناتـج المحلـي سـنوياً‪ .‬ويعـد النقـل البـري أكثـر أشـكال‬ ‫للبيئـة‪ .‬غيـر أن هـذا يتطلـب تطويـر مرافـق بنيـة تحتيـة‬ ‫النقـل شـيوعاً فـي لبنـان فـي مـا يخـص الـركاب والشـحن‬ ‫جديـدة السـتيراد وإمـداد الغـاز الطبيعـي المسـال‪ ،‬وهـو ما‬ ‫والتجـارة‪ ،‬حيـث يبلغ عـدد المركبات حوالـي ‪ 1.2‬مليون في‬ ‫ينبغـي أن يكـون متسـقاً مع الخطـط الرامية إلى استكشـاف‬ ‫بلـد ال يزيـد عـدد سـكانه علـى ‪ 4.5‬مليـون نسـمة‪ .‬ويسـفر‬ ‫واسـتغالل مـوارد الغـاز المحليـة البحرية‪.‬‬ ‫عـن ازدحـام المـرور وارتفاع تكاليـف النقل آثـار هائلة تضر‬ ‫بتنميـة المناطـق النائيـة‪ ،‬ممـا يحتّـم علـى السـكان اإلنتقال‬ ‫للسـكن قريبـاً مـن فـرص العمـل والخدمـات فـي بيـروت‪.‬‬ ‫مياه الشرب والصرف الصحي‬ ‫ولهـذه الديناميـة تأثيـر مـزدوج علـى تفاقـم اإلزدحـام فـي‬ ‫بيـروت وزيـادة الفقـر فـي المحافظـات‪.‬‬ ‫‪1111‬علـى الرغـم مـن ارتفـاع نصيـب الفـرد مـن الميـاه نسـبياً‬ ‫‪1414‬يضـم برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي ‪ 24‬مشـروعاً اسـتثمارياً‬ ‫فـي لبنـان‪ ،‬فـإن سـوء إدارة القطـاع واإلسـتثمار فيـه يـؤدي‬ ‫محـدداً بشـكل منفصـل فـي قطـاع النقـل بقيمـة إجماليـة‬ ‫إلـى نقـص مزمـن فـي اإلمـدادات‪ .‬وهنـاك تفاوت موسـمي‬ ‫قدرهـا ‪ 7381‬مليـون دوالر‪ ،‬وتنفـذ علـى ثلاث دورات‬ ‫بيـن إمـدادات الميـاه (تبلـغ ذروتهـا فـي موسـم الشـتاء‬ ‫تغطـي الفتـرة ‪ .2030-2018‬يكمـن الجـزء األكبـر مـن‬ ‫الممطـر) والطلـب عليهـا (يبلـغ ذروتـه فـي أشـهر الصيـف‬ ‫اسـتثمارات النقـل في اسـتكمال الطرق السـريعة فـي لبنان‪،‬‬ ‫الحـارة والجافـة)‪ .‬ومـن العوامـل الرئيسـية التـي تـؤدي إلـى‬ ‫فيمـا تركـز االسـتثمارات المتبقيـة علـى تطويـر الموجودات‬ ‫تفاقـم هـذا االختلال الموسـمي فـي الميـاه تدنـي قـدرات‬ ‫اإلسـتراتيجية‪ .‬ومـن هـذه اإلسـتثمارات األخيرة توسـيع ميناء‬ ‫تخزيـن الميـاه (‪ 6%‬مـن إجمالـي المـوارد‪ ،‬مقارنة بمتوسـط‬ ‫طرابلـس ليصبـح بوابـة مهمـة إلـى سـوريا والعـراق‪ ،‬وإقامة‬ ‫منطقـة الشـرق األوسـط وشـمال أفريقيـا البالـغ ‪.)85%‬‬ ‫خـط سـكك حديديـة حديث يربـط مينـاء طرابلس بسـوريا‪،‬‬ ‫ونتيجـة لذلـك‪ ،‬تقـل خدمـات إمـداد المياه عن المسـتويات‬ ‫ول عليها وخطوط للنقل السـريع‬ ‫وإنشـاء شـبكة نقل عام يع َّ‬ ‫المتوقعـة فـي بلد متوسـط الدخـل‪ .‬وإذا لم يُتخـذ أي إجراء‬ ‫بالحافلات‪ ،‬وتوسـيع مطـار بيـروت‪ .‬وتمثـل اإلسـتثمارات‬ ‫إصالحـي فـي مجـال حوكمة المياه لتحسـين الكفـاءة وإدارة‬ ‫المناطقيـة واألصغـر حجمـا حصة أقـل بكثير‪ ،‬تتركـز غالبيتها‬ ‫الطلـب‪ ،‬سـيواصل لبنـان على المـدى الطويل اعتمـاده على‬ ‫مقدمــة وموجــز للتقييــم‬ ‫علـى إصلاح شـبكة الطرق‪.‬‬ ‫اسـتخراج الميـاه الجوفيـة‪ .‬وينبغـي توسـيع قـدرة تخزيـن‬ ‫الميـاه بغيـة تعزيـز القدرة علـى تحمل الصدمـات الطبيعية‬ ‫(أي الجفـاف) والصدمـات التـي مـن صنـع اإلنسـان (أي‬ ‫إدارة النفايات الصلبة‬ ‫النازحيـن )‪.‬‬ ‫‪1212‬يضـم برنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي ‪ 124‬مشـروعاً في قطاع‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1515‬إن التخلـص مـن النفايـات الصلبة مشـكلة مسـتمرة وحرجة‬ ‫الميـاه و‪ 82‬مشـروعا فـي قطـاع الصـرف الصحـي تغطـي‬ ‫فـي لبنـان‪ .‬فقبـل األزمـة السـورية‪ ،‬لـم تـزد نسـبة التخلـص‬ ‫لبنـان بأكملـه‪ :‬مناطـق الشـمال‪ ،‬وبيـروت الكبـرى‪ ،‬وجبـل‬ ‫مـن النفايـات الصلبـة البلديـة فـي مطمـري النفايـات‬ ‫لبنـان‪ ،‬والجنـوب‪ ،‬والبقاع‪ .‬وفـي هذا الصـدد‪ ،‬يتمثل الهدف‬ ‫الصحييـن الوحيديـن فـي البلد‪ ،‬وهمـا الناعمـة وزحلة‪ ،‬على‬ ‫فـي توفيـر إمـدادات الميـاه علـى مـدار السـاعة وطـوال‬ ‫‪ .53%‬وكان يتـم التخلـص مـن النفايات المتبقيـة في مطامر‬ ‫أيـام األسـبوع‪ ،‬ممـا يسـهم فـي اسـتعادة العقـد اإلجتماعـي‬ ‫قمامـة غيـر صحيـة ومئـات المكبـات المكشـوفة‪ ،‬التـي‬ ‫الكهرباء‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :1‬توزيع التكاليف في برنامج اإلستثمار‬ ‫الرأسمالي حسب القطاعات‬ ‫‪6.6‬يحصـل ‪ 92%‬مـن األسـر المعيشـية علـى إمـدادات كهربـاء‬ ‫غيـر مسـتقرة ويحتاجـون إلـى ربـط منازلهـم بمولـدات‬ ‫‪6%‬‬ ‫‪1%‬‬ ‫‪0%‬‬ ‫خاصـة‪ .‬وعلـى الرغم مـن الميزانية الكبيـرة والمدعومة التي‬ ‫‪3%‬‬ ‫تتمتـع بهـا مؤسسـة كهربـاء لبنـان‪ ،‬فـإن هـذه اإلمـدادات‬ ‫‪24%‬‬ ‫تعـد غيـر كافيـة وتفتقـر إلـى الكفـاءة والفعاليـة‪ ،‬إذ أنتجت‬ ‫‪8%‬‬ ‫‪ 2066‬ميغـاواط في المتوسـط في عـام ‪ ،2017‬مقارنة بذروة‬ ‫الطلـب البالغـة ‪ 3400‬ميغـاواط‪ 3.‬ويـؤدي هـذا إلـى انقطاع‬ ‫يـار الكهربائـي يوميـاً بوتيـرة منتظمـة وطويلـة‪ ،‬ممـا‬ ‫الت ّ‬ ‫يسـفر عن اسـتخدام مكثـف للمولـدات الخاصـة اإلحتياطية‬ ‫بتكلفـة تبلـغ ثالثـة أضعـاف مسـتوى تعرفة المؤسسـة‪ .‬ومع‬ ‫ذلـك‪ ،‬وعلـى الرغـم من عـدم إمكانية اسـترداد سـوى نصف‬ ‫‪19%‬‬ ‫إجمالـي تكاليـف إنتاج الكهرباء‪ ،‬بقيـت التعرفة دون تعديل‬ ‫‪24%‬‬ ‫منـذ عـام ‪( 1996‬عندمـا كان سـعر النفـط ‪ 23‬دوالرا ً للبرميـل)‪.‬‬ ‫‪12%‬‬ ‫‪3%‬‬ ‫‪7.7‬كمـا أشـارت الدراسـات اإلسـتقصائية التـي أجراهـا البنـك‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫الدولـي مؤخـراً أيضـاً إلـى أن عدم توفـر إمـدادات الكهرباء‬ ‫يشـكل ثانـي أكبـر عقبة أمام نمـو القطاع الخـاص يلي عدم‬ ‫اإلسـتقرار السياسـي‪ .‬ولهـذا أهميـة خاصـة نظـرا ألن هنـاك‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :2‬حصة تكلفة استثمارات برنامج اإلستثمار‬ ‫حاجـة إلـى اسـتثمارات كبيـرة‪ ،‬غالبيتهـا مـن القطـاع الخاص‬ ‫الرأسمالي على المستوى المحلي حسب المحافظات‬ ‫فـي كل مراحـل إنتـاج الطاقـة ‪ ،‬بدايـة مـن اإلمـداد بالوقـود‬ ‫بعلبك الهرمل‬ ‫فـي المراحـل األولـى لإلنتاج ومـرورا ً بالمراحل الوسـطى من‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫‪8%‬‬ ‫ب وت‬ ‫‪12%‬‬ ‫توليـد التيـار ونقلـه أخيـرا ً إلـى شـبكات التوزيـع لمواجهـة‬ ‫البقاع‬ ‫‪5%‬‬ ‫التحديـات التاريخيـة فـي هـذا القطاع‪.‬‬ ‫جبل لبنان‬ ‫النبطية‬ ‫‪15%‬‬ ‫‪23%‬‬ ‫‪8.8‬يضـم برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي ‪ 17‬مشـروعاً اسـتثمارياً‬ ‫محـدداً بشـكل منفصل فـي قطـاع الكهرباء بقيمـة إجمالية‬ ‫قدرهـا ‪ 5592‬مليـون دوالر‪ ،‬من المقـرر تنفيذها على ثالث‬ ‫دورات فـي الفتـرة الزمنيـة الممتـدة بيـن ‪.2030-2018‬‬ ‫والسـتيعاب زيـادة السـعة التوليديـة‪ ،‬سـتدعو الحاجـة أيضـاً‬ ‫إلـى اسـتثمارات فـي نقـل الكهرباء السـتيعاب هـذه الزيادة‬ ‫وضمان اسـتقرار الشـبكة‪.‬‬ ‫الجنوب‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫‪12%‬‬ ‫الش ل‬ ‫‪ 9.9‬تهـدف اسـتثمارات قطـاع الكهربـاء إلـى زيـادة إمـدادات‬ ‫عكار‬ ‫‪17%‬‬ ‫الكهربـاء بحيـث تتوفـر علـى مـدار السـاعة وطـوال أيـام‬ ‫‪8%‬‬ ‫األسـبوع علـى المـدى المتوسـط‪ .‬وتحقيقـاً لهـذا الهـدف‪،‬‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬تقييم خبراء البنك الدولي‪.‬‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫يجـب أن يأتـي إصلاح قطاع الكهربـاء علـى رأس األولويات‪.‬‬ ‫وهـذا يتضمـن مشـاركة القطـاع الخاص فـي كل مـن التوليد‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫والتوزيـع‪ ،‬وهـو ما يفرضه غياب مسـاحة لإلنفاق من المالية‬ ‫العامـة‪ ،‬فضلاً عـن اللجـوء إلـى مصـادر الطاقـة المتجـددة‪.‬‬ ‫ومـا لـم يُحل هـذا القصـور‪ ،‬فـإن السـعة التوليديـة اإلضافية‬ ‫سـتتعرض لإلهـدار فـي ظـل التسـربات خلال عمليـة النقـل‬ ‫التـي تقـدر بمـا يتـراوح بيـن ‪ 40‬و‪ .50%‬ومـع ذلـك‪ ،‬فزيادة‬ ‫‪ 3‬المصدر‪ :‬الحكومة اللبنانية‪.‬‬ ‫اشـتراكات الهواتـف الخلويـة فـي المرتبة ‪ 2.104‬علاوة على‬ ‫ ‪ .‬أالعجز في البنية التحتية‬ ‫ذلـك‪ ،‬أدى تدنـي اإلسـتثمار العـام فـي هـذه القطاعـات إلى‬ ‫قصـور القـدرات عـن تلبيـة الطلـب‪ ،‬ممـا أدى إلـى انخفاض‬ ‫‪1.1‬يعـد تقديـم الخدمـات العامـة األساسـية مـن الركائـز‬ ‫فـي النمـو اإلقتصـادي الممكـن وتدهـور عـام فـي األوضـاع‬ ‫المحوريـة فـي العقـد اإلجتماعـي بيـن المواطـن والدولـة‪.‬‬ ‫المعيشية‪.‬‬ ‫يعانـي لبنـان مـن قصـور حـاد فـي الخدمـات األساسـية‬ ‫الرئيسـية‪ ،‬بمـا فـي ذلـك الكهربـاء وميـاه االشـفه والصـرف‬ ‫الصحـي والنقـل وإدارة النفايـات واإلتصـاالت وغيرهـا‪ .‬وال‬ ‫ ‪.‬ببرنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي‬ ‫تعـد هـذه الخدمات عنصـرا ً أساسـياً لنمو اإلنتاجيـة والدخل‬ ‫فحسـب‪ ،‬بـل أيضـاً لضمـان توفـر قـدر أساسـي من مسـتوى‬ ‫للبنان والتحديات القطاعية‬ ‫المعيشـة للسـكان‪ .‬وعندمـا يتـم توفيرهـا بفاعليـة‪ ،‬فيمكـن‬ ‫‪4.4‬يضـم برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي أكثـر من ‪ 280‬مشـروعاً‬ ‫أن يكـون لهـا أثـر إيجابـي علـى المسـاواة فـي الدخـل‪ ،‬مما‬ ‫للبنيـة التحتيـة موزعـة علـى قطاعـات الطاقـة والنقـل‬ ‫يسـمح للفئـات المنخفضـة الدخـل بالحصـول علـى فـرص‬ ‫وميـاه الشـفة والصـرف الصحي ومعالجـة النفايـات الصلبة‬ ‫عمـل أفضـل وأكثـر إنتاجيـة‪ .‬كمـا أن توفيرهـا يعـزز أيضـاً‬ ‫واإلتصاالت والمناطق اإلقتصادية الخاصة والثقافة والسياحة‪.‬‬ ‫النواتـج الصحيـة والتربويـة‪ ،‬ممـا يـؤدي بالتالـي إلـى دعـم‬ ‫مـن الناحيـة الجغرافيـة‪ ،‬يغطـي البرنامـج األراضـي اللبنانيـة‬ ‫رأس المـال البشـري‪ ،‬الذي يشـكل محركاً بالـغ األهمية للنمو‬ ‫صنفـت بعـض المشـاريع على أنها مشـاريع‬ ‫فـي الشـريحة العليا مـن البلدان المتوسـطة الدخـل كلبنان‪.‬‬ ‫بأكملهـا‪ ،‬حيـث ُ‬ ‫وصنفـت أخرى على أنها مشـاريع محليـة‪ ،‬وذلك في‬ ‫وبـدالً مـن ذلـك‪ ،‬يلجـأ اللبنانيـون عـادة إلـى جهـات وآليات‬ ‫وطنيـة ُ‬ ‫مناطـق الشـمال وبيـروت وجبـل لبنـان والجنـوب والبقـاع‪.‬‬ ‫تقديم خدمات غير رسـمية‪ ،‬وأحياناً تشـوبها شـوائب انعدام‬ ‫علـى المسـتوى القطاعـي‪ ،‬يسـتحوذ قطـاع النقـل علـى أكبر‬ ‫القانونيـة‪ ،‬بغيـة تعويـض أوجـه القصـور هـذه‪.‬‬ ‫نصيـب مـن اإلسـتثمارات يصـل إلـى ‪ 32%‬مـن إجمالـي‬ ‫‪2.2‬أدى عـدم توفـر مسـاحة لإلنفاق من الماليـة العامة‪ ،‬مقروناً‬ ‫برنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪ ،‬منها ‪ 8%‬مخصصة إلستمالكات‬ ‫بغياب ميزانيات عامة للدولة من عام ‪ 2005‬إلى عام ‪،2017‬‬ ‫األراضـي (الشـكل ‪ .)1‬ويخصـص حوالـي ربـع اإلسـتثمارات‬ ‫إلـى انخفـاض حـاد فـي اإلنفـاق العام علـى مشـاريع البنية‬ ‫لقطـاع الطاقـة‪ ،‬فيما يسـتأثر قطاعـا المياه والصـرف الصحي‬ ‫التحتيـة‪ .‬وتشـير التقديـرات إلـى أن إجمالـي الديـن العـام‬ ‫علـى ‪ 22%‬و‪ 12%‬بحسـب الترتيـب‪.‬‬ ‫بلـغ نحـو ‪ 153%‬مـن إجمالـي الناتـج المحلـي بحلـول نهاية‬ ‫يخصـص حوالـي نصـف إجمالـي اإلسـتثمارات للمشـاريع‬ ‫عـام ‪ ،2017‬وهـي نسـبة مرتفعـة عالمياً ال تفوقهـا إال اليابان‬ ‫‪ُ 5.5‬‬ ‫«الوطنيـة»‪ ،‬مـع تخصيص الباقي لمشـاريع محليـة‪ .‬وتهدف‬ ‫واليونـان‪ .‬وتبلـغ خدمـة الديـن التـي تتحملهـا الحكومة نحو‬ ‫المشـاريع الوطنيـة إلى العـودة بالنفع على جميع السـكان‪،‬‬ ‫ة بذلـك‬ ‫‪ 10%‬مـن إجمالـي الناتـج المحلـي سـنوياً‪ ،‬مسـتهلك ً‬ ‫كمعظـم اإلسـتثمارات في قطاعـي الطاقة والنقـل‪ ،‬فضالً عن‬ ‫حوالـي نصـف اإليـرادات المحليـة‪ .‬ونتيجـة لذلـك‪ ،‬تعانـي‬ ‫قطاعـي اإلتصـاالت أو الثقافـة‪ .‬لـذا‪ ،‬فـإن هـذه المشـاريع‪،‬‬ ‫الحكومـة مـن عجز مالـي هائل وطويل األمد بلغت نسـبته‬ ‫التـي تبلـغ قيمتهـا إجمـاالً ‪ 10306‬مالييـن دوالر‪ ،‬ال تُخصـص‬ ‫‪ 9.6%‬مـن إجمالـي الناتج المحلي فـي ‪( 2016‬أحدث بيانات‬ ‫لمحافظـات محـددة‪ .‬ومـن بيـن اإلسـتثمارات المخصصـة‬ ‫يز فـي المالية‬ ‫فعليـة عـن سـنة كاملة)‪ .‬وقـد ت ُرجم غيـاب ح ّ‬ ‫محليـاً فـي برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪ ،‬رصـد ‪ 23%‬فـي‬ ‫العامـة إلـى تراجع فـي النفقات الرأسـمالية الحكومية‪ ،‬التي‪،‬‬ ‫وقـد بقيـت عند مسـتوى يبلـغ حوالـي ‪ 1.5%‬في المتوسـط‬ ‫مقدمــة وموجــز للتقييــم‬ ‫جبـل لبنـان‪ ،‬ثم محافظـة الشـمال (‪ )17%‬والنبطيـة (‪)15%‬‬ ‫(الشـكل ‪.)2‬‬ ‫مـن إجمالـي الناتـج المحلـي منذ بدايـة األلفيـة‪ ،‬وهي أدنى‬ ‫بكثيـرا ً عـن البلدان المتخـذة أساسـاً للمقارنة‪.‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬نتيجـة لذلـك‪ ،‬تدهـورت شـبكة البنيـة التحتيـة فـي البلاد‬ ‫ونوعيتهـا‪ ،‬وال سـيما الكهرباء ومياه الشـفة وإدارة النفايات‬ ‫والنقـل‪ ،‬وهـي خدمـات أساسـية لرفاهيـة السـكان‪ .‬والواقع‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫أن لبنـان‪ ،‬بيـن ‪ 137‬بلـدا ً‪ ،‬يأتـي فـي المرتبـة ‪ 130‬مـن حيث‬ ‫جـودة البنـى التحتيـة ً‪ ،‬مـع حلول جـودة إمـدادات الكهرباء‬ ‫فـي المرتبـة ‪ ،134‬وجـودة الطرق فـي المرتبـة ‪ ،120‬وجودة‬ ‫‪ 2‬المصدر‪ :‬المنتدى اإلقتصادي العالمي‪ ،‬مؤشر التنافسية العالمية‬ ‫‪.2018-2017‬‬ ‫‪I.I‬مقدمة وموجز للتقييم‬ ‫خالصة‬ ‫إن البنيـة التحتيـة فـي لبنـان مـن بيـن األقل جودة وفعاليـة على الصعيدين اإلقليمـي والعالمي‪ .‬فمن بيـن ‪ 137‬بلدا ً‪ ،‬يأتي لبنـان في المرتبة‬ ‫‪ 130‬مـن حيـث جـودة البنيـة التحتيـة إجمـاالً ‪ ، 1‬وهـذا ناتـج عـن تدنـي اإلنفـاق العـام علـى البنيـة التحتيـة نتيجة ألعبـاء الديـن العام في‬ ‫عالة تسـاعد على تعزيز‬ ‫البلاد‪ ،‬فضلاً عـن غيـاب الموازنـة العامة للدولـة لفترة طويلة‪ .‬ويمكن لبرنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي أن يكون أداة ف ّ‬ ‫البنيـة التحتيـة المتهالكـة فـي لبنـان‪ ،‬ممـا يعطي دفعـاً لعجلة النمو اإلقتصـادي‪ .‬وقد طلبـت الحكومة اللبنانيـة من مجموعـة البنك الدولي‬ ‫إجراء تقييم لبرنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪.‬‬ ‫تعـرض هـذه الوثيقـة تقييمـاً أجرتـه مجموعـة البنـك الدولي‪ ،‬التي لهـا تاريخ طويل من الشـراكة مع لبنـان في قطاعات منفـردة أو في عدة‬ ‫قطاعـات مدرجـة فـي برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪ .‬أُجـري هـذا التقييـم على أسـاس القائمـة الواردة فـي المرفـق أ‪ ،‬والمعلومـات الواردة‬ ‫فـي وثيقـة برنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي الخـاص بالحكومـة ‪ ،‬فضلاً عـن معلومـات أخرى تتعلّـق باقتراحـات لمعالجـة تضخّم الديـن العام‬ ‫وخدمتـه‪ .‬ويتطلـب كل مشـروع مـن مشـاريع البرنامـج تقييماً مسـبقا مسـتقالً وفـق أعلى المعاييـر‪ .‬باإلضافة إلـى ذلك‪ ،‬يشّ ـكل وجود إطار‬ ‫اقتصـادي كلـي ومالـي مسـتدام وإسـتراتيجية لخفض الدين عنصرا أساسـيا لنجاح تنفيذ برنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪ .‬ويقـوم صندوق النقد‬ ‫الدولـي بـدور رائـد فـي تقييـم اإلقتصـاد الكلـي والماليـة العامـة لبرنامـج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي‪ ،‬وقـد قـدم هـذا التقييـم فـي مؤتمر سـيدر‬ ‫(‪ )CEDRE‬فـي باريس‪.‬‬ ‫ويخلـص التقييـم بصفـة عامـة إلـى أن اختيـار القطاعـات يتناسـب مـع برنامـج لإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي للبنـان‪ ،‬وأن الكثيـر مـن المشـاريع‬ ‫المدرجـة فـي القائمـة وثيقـة الصلـة باألوضـاع‪ ،‬والواقـع أن لبعضهـا أهميـة كبيـرة للمسـاعدة علـى تخفيـف حـدة العراقيـل الحاليـة فـي‬ ‫البنيـة التحتيـة‪ .‬ومـع ذلـك‪ ،‬فلا غنـى عـن اإلصالحـات األفقيـة والعاموديـة فـي ما يخـص القطاعات األساسـية‪ ،‬بما فـي ذلك الحـد من األثر‬ ‫علـى الماليـة العامـة‪ ،‬لتمكين برنامج اإلسـتثمار الرأسـمالي وجعل المشـاريع مسـتدامة وجذابـة للمسـتثمرين‪ .‬وتقترح هـذه الوثيقة قائمة‬ ‫باإلصالحـات اإلرشـادية‪ ،‬غيـر أنهـا ال تتنـاول المعوقـات التي تقف في طريق تنفيذ مشـاريع البنيـة التحتية‪ ،‬والتي أدت إلـى تأخيرات طويلة‬ ‫وتكاليـف إضافيـة كبيرة‪.‬‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫‪v‬‬ ‫المصدر‪ :‬المنتدى اإلقتصادي العالمي‪ ،‬مؤشر التنافسية العالمية ‪.2018-2017‬‬ ‫‪ 1‬‬ ‫شكر وتقدير‬ ‫أعـد هـذه الوثيقـة فريـق مـن خبـراء مجموعة البنـك الدولي يقوده وسـام حركه (خبيـر اقتصـادي متقدم‪ ،‬البنـك الدولي لإلنشـاء والتعمير)‬ ‫وخريسـتوس كوسـتوبولوس (كبيـر خبـراء اقتصادييـن‪ ،‬البنـك الدولي لإلنشـاء والتعمير) ويتألـف من الزمالء التالية أسـماؤهم‪:‬‬ ‫أعضاء الفريق‬ ‫القطاع‪ /‬مجاالت الحلول المشتركة‪ /‬الوحدة‬ ‫سامح مبارك‬ ‫الطاقة‬ ‫فرانك فان ووردن‬ ‫البيئة والموارد الطبيعية‬ ‫أرنو دورنيل‪ ،‬هاوسونغ رين‬ ‫التمويل والقدرة على المنافسة واالبتكار‬ ‫بول ويلتون‪ ،‬سيفير فتوفات‬ ‫الحوكمة‬ ‫وسام حركه‪ ،‬خريستوس كوستوبولوس‪ ،‬ناجي أبو حمدة‬ ‫اإلقتصاد الكلي والتجارة واإلستثمار‬ ‫زياد النكت‬ ‫النقل‬ ‫كونسيبسيون أيسا‪ ،‬جونغ وو نام‬ ‫الخزانة‬ ‫كارلو روسوتو‪ ،‬ماروال حداد‬ ‫تكنولوجيا المعلومات واإلتصاالت‬ ‫غويدو ليسياردي‪ ،‬ساطع شفيق األرناؤوط‬ ‫التنمية الحضرية والريفية واالجتماعية‬ ‫أمل طالبي‪ ،‬سالي زغيب‬ ‫المياه والصرف الصحي‬ ‫وقـد عمـل فريـق إعـداد التقريـر بشـكل وثيـق مـع قـادة البرامـج (إبراهيـم دجانـي‪ ،‬وبيتـر موسـلي‪ ،‬وحنيـن سـيد)‪ ،‬ومنـى زيـادة‬ ‫(مسـؤولة التواصـل والعالقـات الخارجيـة)‪( ،‬البنـك الدولي لإلنشـاء والتعمير)‪ ،‬ومنى كوزي (مسـؤولة البرامج في لبنان)‪ ،‬وسـعد صبرا (ممثل‬ ‫مؤسسـة التمويـل الدوليـة)‪ ،‬وليالـي عابديـن (خبيـرة أولـى فـي التغطيـة اإلئتمانيـة‪ ،‬الوكالـة الدوليـة لضمـان اإلسـتثمار)‪ .‬واعتمـد الفريـق‬ ‫اعتمـادا ً كبيـرا ً علـى الخبـرات الفنيـة الخاصـة بقطاعـات محـددة من جميـع وحـدات مجموعة البنـك الدولي ومجـاالت الحلول المشـتركة‪.‬‬ ‫كمـا يعـرب الفريـق عـن شـكره وامتنانـه للزملاء فرحـات إيسـين (أخصائـي أول شـؤون الطاقـة)‪ ،‬وبليدي سـيليكو (خبيـر اقتصـادي‪ ،‬قطاع‬ ‫الممارسـات العالميـة لالقتصـاد الكلـي والتجـارة واإلسـتثمار)‪ ،‬علـى مـا قدمـاه مـن تعليقـات ثاقبـة وبناءة خلال اسـتعراض الوثيقة‪.‬‬ ‫تـم اإلضطلاع بهـذا العمل تحت إشـراف سـاروج كومار جـاه (المدير اإلقليمي لدائرة الشـرق األوسـط) وكيفين كاري (مديـر قطاع اإلقتصاد‬ ‫دماه طـوال إعـداد التقريـر من مشـورة ودعـم ومالحظات‬ ‫الكلـي فـي دائـرة الشـرق األوسـط)‪ ،‬ونعـرب لهمـا عـن خالـص الشـكر على مـا ق َّ‬ ‫ناءة والمشـاركة القوية مـن جانب الحكومـة اللبنانيـة‪ ،‬إذ تلقى فريق‬ ‫نـاءة‪ .‬كمـا اسـتفاد معـ ّ‬ ‫دو التّقريـر مـن التعـاون الوثيق والمشـورة الب ّ‬ ‫بّ‬ ‫عمـل مجموعـة البنـك الدولـي مالحظـات قيمـة مـن ممثلـي مكتـب دولـة رئيـس الـوزراء‪ ،‬ومجلـس اإلنمـاء واإلعمـار‪ ،‬والمجلـس األعلـى‬ ‫للخصخصـة والشـراكة‪ ،‬وأوجيـرو‪ ،‬ووزارة الطاقـة والمياه‪ ،‬ودار الهندسـة‪.‬‬ ‫‪iv‬‬ ‫قائمة اإلطارات‬ ‫اإلطار ‪ :1‬ألمساواة بين الجنسين وإشراك الشباب في برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي ‪20.............................‬‬ ‫قائمة الجداول‬ ‫القطاع‪ /‬مجاالت الحلول المشتركة‪ /‬الوحدة ‪iv.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫أعضاء الفريق ‪iv.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫التقييم اإلستراتيجي ‪7. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫تقييم من حيث النمو والتوظيف واحتواء كافة فئات المجتمع ‪8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫تقييم الجدوى ‪10. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫اإلصالحات القطاعية ‪12. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫اإلصالحات األفقية ‪12. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫ـتثمار الرأسمالي‪ :‬فرص اإلستثمار واإلصالح في لبنان‬ ‫ـتراتيجي لبرنامج اإلسـ‬ ‫تقييم إسـ‬ ‫‪iii‬‬ ‫جدول المحتويات‬ ‫شكر وتقدير ‪iv.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫خالصة ‪v. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫ مقدمة وموجز للتقييم ‪1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫‪.I‬‬ ‫العجز في البنية التحتية ‪2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫أ‪.‬‬ ‫ب ‪ .‬برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي للبنان والتحديات القطاعية ‪2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫ج ‪ .‬منهجية التقييم ‪6. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫المجمعة ‪7. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫د ‪ .‬النتائج‬ ‫ه ‪ .‬العوامل المساعدة لبرنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي ‪10. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫و ‪ .‬تعظيم التمويل لبرنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي اللبناني ‪16. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .‬‬ ‫قائمة األشكال‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :1‬توزيع التكاليف في برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي حسب القطاعات ‪3........................................‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :2‬حصة تكلفة استثمارات برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي على المستوى المحلي‬ ‫حسب‪ ‬المحافظات ‪3...........................................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :3‬توزيع الدورات في برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي‪ – ‬مجموعة البنك الدولي ‪9............................‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :4‬توزيع الدورات في برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي‪ – ‬الحكومة اللبنانية ‪9.....................................‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :5‬توزيع التكاليف في برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي‪ ‬حسب القطاعات في مختلف‬ ‫الدورات‪ – ‬مجموعة البنك الدولي ‪11..................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :6‬توزيع التكاليف في برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي‪ ‬حسب القطاعات في مختلف‬ ‫الدورات‪ – ‬الحكومة اللبنانية ‪11............................................................................................................‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :7‬التمويل الخاص في برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي في جميع دوراته ‪17....................................‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :8‬التمويل الخاص في برنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي في الدورة ‪17...........................................1‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :9‬التمويل الخاص لبرنامج اإلستثمار الرأسمالي‪ ‬في الدورة ‪17................................................2‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :12‬حجم تمويل مشاريع البنية التحتية في بلدان مختارة ‪18.......................................................‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :10‬حصص القطاعات من المشاريع التي يمولها‪ ‬القطاع الخاص بشكل كامل في جميع‬ ‫دورات‪ ‬برنامج االستثمار الرأسمالي‪18............................................................................................... .‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :11‬حصص القطاعات من المشاريع التي يمولها‪ ‬القطاع الخاص بشكل كامل في الدورة ‪18....... .1‬‬ ‫الشكل ‪ :13‬حجم ديون تمويل مشاريع البنية التحتية‪ ،‬المتوسط ‪2017-2013‬‬ ‫(‪ %‬من إجمالي الناتج المحلي) ‪19.......................................................................................................‬‬ ‫‪ii‬‬ ‫وﺛيقة لمجموعة البنك الدولي‬ ‫‪ 6‬أبريل‪/‬نيسان ‪2018‬‬ ‫وﺛيقة لمجموعة البنك الدولي‬ ‫وﺳﺎم ﺣﺮﻛﻪ وﺧﺮﻳﺴﺘﻮس ﻛﻮﺳﺘﻮﺑﻮﻟﻮس | ‪ 6‬ﻧﻴﺴﺎن ‪2018‬‬