Document of The W o r l d Bank FOR OFFICIAL USEONLY Report No: 34058-CO PROJECTAPPRAISAL DOCUMENT ONA PROPOSEDGRANT FROMTHE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTFACILITYTRUST FUND INTHEAMOUNTOFUS$5.4MILLION FORTHE BENEFITOF THE REPUBLICOF COLOMBIA THROUGHCONSERVATIONINTERNATIONAL COLOMBIA FORTHE INTEGRATEDNATIONAL ADAPTATION PROJECT March 13,2006 Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Department Colombia and Mexico Country Management Unit Latin America and Caribbean Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be usedby recipients only in the performance o f their official duties. I t s contents may not otherwise be disclosed without W o r l d Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (September 2005) Currency Unit = Colombian Pesos 2200 Colombian Pesos = US$ 1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December31 Vice President: Pamela Cox Country ManageriDirector: Isabel Guerrero Sector Manager: Abel Mejia Task Team Leader: Walter Vergara ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACCION Agencia Presidencialpara la Accion Social y la Cooperacih Internacional SOCIAL (Presidential Agency for Social Action and International Cooperation) AOP Annual Operational Plan CAR Corporaci6n Autonoma Regional (Regional Environmental Authority) CAS Country Assistance Strategy C I Conservation International c 0 2 Carbon Dioxide COP Conference o f the Parties CARDIQUE Corporacion Autonoma Regional del Canal del Dique (Regional Environmental Authority o f the Dique Canal) Coralina Corporacihpara el desarrollo sostenible del Archipielago de San Andres, Old Providence y Santa Catalina (Regional Environmental Authority for the Sustainable Development o f the Archipielago o f San Andres, Old Providence and Santa Catalina) CPACC Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change Project CRSBeIF Corales del Rosario, San Bernardo e Isla Fuerte (Marine Protected Area) (Corals o f Rosario, San Bemardo and Isla Fuerte) cvc Corporaci6n Autonoma Regional del Valle del Cauca (Regional Environmental Authority o f the Valle del Cauca) DHF Dengue Hemorrhagic fever DIMAR Direccibn General Maritima (Colombian Navy -National Maritime Authority) DMEWS Early Warning System to improve Malaria and Dengue Surveillance and Control ENS0 ElNino Southern Oscillation GCC Global Climate Change GEF Global Environmental Facility IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development I C M Integrated Coastal Management I D E M Meteorological, Hydrological and Environmental Studies Institute IMDSCS Integrated Malaria and Dengue Surveillance and Control System INAP IntegratedNational Adaptation Project INVEMAR Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (Marine and Coastal Research Institute o f Colombia) I N S Instituto Nacional de Salud (Colombian National Health Institute) IRI International Research Institute for Climate Prediction JAMSTEC Japan Frontier Research Institute M A C C Mainstreaming adaptation to Climate Change M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDG Millennium Development Goals M o E MinistryofEnvironment (Colombia) M o H Ministryo f Health M P A Marine ProtectedArea MRI Meteorological Research Institute o f Japan NCAP Netherlands Climate Change Program N C1 FirstNational Communication NEC National Environmental Council FOROFFICIAL USE ONLY This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not be otherwise disclosed without World Bank authorization. NGO N o n Governmental Organization N P U National Park Unit OECS Organization of Eastern Caribbean States PAHO Pan American Health Organization PDF B Program Development Facility B PDO Project Development Objective SA1 San Andres, Old Providence and Santa Catalina Archipelago SIVIGILA Sistema Nacional de Vigilancia en Salud Publica SMIA Sistema de manejo integrado de agua (Rainwater harvesting and of wastewater recovering system) SOE Statement of Expenditures SINA Sistema Nacional Ambiental (National Environmental System - Colombia) SPA Strategic Priority "Piloting an operational approach to adaptation" UNFCCC UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate Change COLOMBIA IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject CONTENTS Page A. STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND RATIONALE ................................................................. 7 1. Country and sector issues.................................................................................................... 7 2. Rationale for Bank involvement....................................................................................... 10 3. Higher level objectives to which the project contributes .................................................. 11 B . PROJECT DESCRIPTION ............................................................................................... 12 1. Lending instrument ........................................................................................................... 12 2. Project development objective and key indicators............................................................ 12 3. Project components ........................................................................................................... 12 4. Lessons learned and reflected inthe project design.,........................................................ 15 5. Alternatives considered and reasons for rejection ............................................................ 16 C. IMPLEMENTATION ........................................................................................................ 17 1. Partnership arrangements .................................................................................................. 17 2. Institutional and implementation arrangements. ............................................................... 18 3. Monitoring and evaluation o f outcomes/results................................................................ 20 4. Sustainability and Replicability........................................................................................ 20 5. Critical risks and possible controversial aspects............................................................... 21 6. Loadcredit conditions and covenants ............................................................................... 22 D APPRAISALSUMMARY . ................................................................................................. 22 1. Economic and financial analyses ...................................................................................... 22 2. Technical ........................................................................................................................... 24 3. Fiduciary ........................................................................................................................... 24 4. Social ............................................................................................................................. 25 5. Environment...................................................................................................................... 26 6. Safeguard policies............................................................................................................. 26 7. Policy Exceptions and Readiness...................................................................................... 26 Annex 1: Country and Sector or Program Background ......................................................... 27 Annex 2: Major Related Projects Financedby the Bank and/or other Agencies .................38 Annex 3: Results Framework and Monitoring ........................................................................ 41 Annex 4: Detailed Project Description ...................................................................................... 49 Annex 5: Project Costs............................................................................................................... 57 Annex 6: Implementation Arrangements ................................................................................. 58 Annex 7: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements ..................................... 66 Annex 8: Procurement Arrangements ...................................................................................... 68 Annex 9: Economic and financial analysis ............................................................................... 73 Annex 10: Safeguard Policy Issues ............................................................................................ 81 Annex 11: Project Preparation and Supervision ..................................................................... 83 Annex 12: Documents inthe Project File ................................................................................. 84 Annex 13: Statement of Loans and Credits .............................................................................. 85 Annex 14: Country at a Glance ................................................................................................. 87 Annex 15: Incremental Costs ..................................................................................................... 89 Annex 16: STAP Roster Review ................................................................................................ 95 Annex 17: Biodiversity inthe Las Hermosas Moorland ......................................................... 98 Annex 18: Environmental Assessment .................................................................................... 103 Map 1(IBRD 34615): Seaflower Reserve Marine Protected Area Map 2 (IBRD 34616): Las Hermosas High Altitude Moorlands COLOMBIA INTEGRATEDNATIONAL ADAPTATION PROJECT PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT LATINAMERICA AND CARIBBEAN LCSEN Date: March 13, 2006 Team Leader: Walter Vergara Country Director: Isabel M.Guerrero Sectors: Floodprotection (80%); Health Sector ManagerDirector: Laura Tuck (20%) Project ID: PO83075 Themes: Climate change (P);Biodiversity Focal Area: Climate change (S);Other environment andnatural resources Lending Instrument: Technical Assistance management(S) Loan Environmental screening category: Partial Assessment [ ] Loan [ 3 Credit [XI Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Other: For Loans/Credits/Others: Total Bank financing (US$m.): 0.00 Borrower/Recipient: Conservation International Colombia Executing Agencies: Conservation International Colombia www.conservation.org IDEAM. Colombia Coralina, Colombia INVEMAR,Colombia INS. Colombia 1 Estimateddisbursements(Bank FY/US$m) FY 6 7 8 9 10 Annual 0.50 2.50 2.00 0.30 0.10 Cumulative 0.50 3.00 5.00 5.30 5.40 Project implementation period: Start August 14,2006 End: August 15,201 1 Expected effectiveness date: August 1,2006 Expected closing date: December 30, 2011 Does the project depart from the CAS incontent or other significant respects? Re$ PAD A.3 [XIYes [ No Does the project require any exceptions from Bank policies? Re$ PAD D.7 [ ]Yes [XINO Have these been approved by Bank management? 1. ]Yes [ IN0 I s approval for any policy exception sought from the Board? [ ]Yes [XINO Does the project include any critical risks rated "substantial" or "high"? Re$ PAD C.5 [XIYes [ ] N o Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Re$ PAD D.7 [XIYes [ ] N o Project development objective Re$ PAD B.2, TechnicalAnnex 3 The project development objective is to support Colombia's efforts to define and implement specific pilot adaptation measures and policy options to meet the anticipated impacts from climate change. These efforts will be focused on highmountain ecosystems, insular areas and on human health concerns related to the expansion o f areas for vectors linked to malaria and dengue, as identified as priority areas inthe National Communications and other studies. Global Environment objective Re$ PAD B.2, TechnicaEAnnex 3 The project follows the operational guidelines for the Strategic Priority "Piloting an Operational Approach for Adaptation" (SPA). The project i s in accordance with the guidelines 2, 3, 6 and 9, stating that activities to be funded should be pilots or demonstration projects integrated into national sustainable development andpoverty-reduction strategies. The project would include: (i) activities within natural resources management context that generate global environmental benefits, and (ii)adaptation measures that provide other major development benefits (e.g. WEHAB, i.e. water, energy, health, agriculture, biodiversity). The project activities aim at preventing degradation o f global commons. For example, the insular component focuses on conservation o f globally important biodiversity in the Seaflower reserve and the Marine ProtectedArea (MPA) Corales del Rosario, San Bemardo e IslaFuerte in order to contribute to the conservation o f marine ecosystems. In the mountains habitats, the project focuses on the area o f Las Hermosas Massif, a highly diverse mountain biotope, seeking to protect biodiversity, prevent land degradation and conserve environmental services linked to the ability o fthe ecosystem to support hydropower generation. The health component protects the global commons by addressing the increase in exposure to tropical vector diseases associated with a warming climate, and therefore mitigates the social and economic consequences o f climate change. Colombia contributed almost 35% o f reported DHF cases inAmerica during the period 1996-2004, and 25% o f the continental malaria transmission 2 in2003 alone (PAHO, 2005). A 30% reductionof dengue andmalaria incidence inselectedpilot areas o f Colombia will contribute to reducing the regional burden o f both diseases that largely affect children below 5 years old. In malaria endemic areas, for example, it i s estimated that nearly 25% o f all mortality in children 0-4 years old can be attributed to malaria (Sachs, 2002; Malaney et al, 2004). The health component directly addresses the Millenium Development Goals o f reducing infant and child mortality, reducing infectious diseases. Better surveillance will improve assessment o f transmission risk nation-wide, thus facilitating the effective allocation o f health resources and more cost-effective preventive responses. This process, inturn, will provide information o f global value on how to tackle anticipated increased exposures to tropical vector diseases. Project description [one-sentence summary of each component] Re$ PAD B.3.a, Technical Annex 4 a) Making climate, climate variability, and climate change information available for adoption o f adaptation measures and policies (total cost US$ 3.1 m; GEF funding US$ 1.0 m). This component seeks to strengthen Colombia's capabilities to produce and disseminate climate information (useful for resource allocation and operational decision making), in support o f adaptation to climate change measures and programs. The component will strengthen IDEAM's capabilities to provide: (i)forecasts to improve resource management and biodiversity conservation decisions inhighmountain ecosystems; (ii) climate scenarios to develop ecosystem management plans land conservation and adaptation options inParamo, insular and coastal areas; and (iii)warnings for Malaria and Dengue. Under the component, the following activities will be supported: (i)improvements in technical and scientific capabilities at IDEAM to produce information relevant to climate change; (ii) development o f local climate change scenarios in support o f selection o f adaptation measures; (iii)strengthening the existing climate data network o f relevance to climate change by supporting equipment renovation for 157 key climate stations (out o f 3100 operated by IDEAM) with at least 20 years o f high quality data (for 1961-1990), including quality control and assurance; (iv) strengthening scientific and technical personnel to ensure long term sustainability o f the project activities. b) Design and implementation o f an adaptation program that supports maintenance of environmental services (including hydropower potential) in the Las Hermosas Massif in the central range o f the Andes (total cost US$ 3.47 m, GEF funding US$ 1.57m). The Massif i s the most humid high altitude moorland inthe planet, a highly diverse biotope o f particular concern for climate change impacts. It i s also important for potential hydro-power generation. The selection o f the Massif was made on the basis o f the significant biodiversity in the ecosystem, including endangered or threatened species. The selection o f Las Hermosas enables synergies between this project and the Amoya River project, already approved, which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector. The component supports the following activities: (i)Ecosystem planning and management in Las Hermosas Massif, seeking to maintain its high biodiversity assets; (ii)Maintenance o f potential for hydropower generation through adoption o f measures to protect the Amoya watershed; (iii) Adaptive land-use planning model seeking to reduce impacts from climate change on land degradation. (iv) Improvement of productive agro-ecosystems and reduction o f their socioeconomic vulnerability to GCC impacts. At the endthe project seeks maintenanceto the current level o f accessto environmental services. 3 c) Adaptation measures in Caribbean Insular areas (total cost US$ 2.9 m, GEF funding US$ 1.3 m). The objective o f this component is to support the implementation of physical adaptation measures in order to reduce the vulnerability o f the Caribbean Insular area, especially with regard to changes in rainfall and temperature and sea-level rise. The activities under this component consist of: (i)Implementation o f GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System)-based monitoring stations in the Western Caribbean (complementing the regional network under CPACC); (ii)Integrated water resources management to enhance the availability o f fresh water inthe Caribbean insular areas (San Andres island); (iii) Implementation o f the marine protected areas system in the Seaflower reserve and the Corales del Rosario, San Bernard0 e Isla Fuerte (CRSBeIF) inorder to contribute to the conservation o f marine ecosystems inthe face o f climate impacts; and (iv) Integrated Coastal Management to reduce the vulnerability o f ecosystems, infrastructure and population living close to the coast. At the end the project seeks to maintain resilience o f insular areas to climate impacts. d) Responses to the increased exposure to tropical vector-borne diseases (malaria and dengue) induced by climate change (total cost US$4.7 m, GEF fundingUS$1.Om).The objective o f this component i s to address the increased exposure to tropical vector-borne diseases (malaria and dengue) induced by climate change through the implementation o f an Integrated Dengue and Malaria Surveillance and Control System, IDMSCS, including an Early Warning System for Malaria and Dengue Surveillance and Control (DMEWS) seeking a 30% reduction in both malaria and dengue morbidities inpilot areas, as a result o f improvements inhealth management and prevention o f additional exposure caused by climate change. Duringthe Integrated National Adaptation Program (INAP), the IDMSCS will be implemented in approximately 12 pilot municipalities for malaria and 12 for dengue, selected based on perceived climate threats. The project will support the design, implementation and operation o f the IDMSCS: developing a framework that permits the continuous evaluation o f the local risk o f dengue and malaria transmission inthe face o f GCC and the determination o f the most appropriate actions inorder to prevent epidemics before they begin. (See Annex 1 for further details). The project will contribute to the strengthening o f the institutional capabilities through the evaluation and strengthening o f local (municipal) health agencies and through the strengthening the National Health (M&D) Surveillance System ultimately changing the current reactive institutional organization into a proactive public health system. e) Project Management (total cost US$ 0.73m, GEF funding US$ 0.53m). This component will support the overall technical coordination o f Project Activities (including the implementation o f a technical monitoring system) (component el) as well as the administrative and financial management o f the Project (component e2). It will include goods; consultancy services; travel and operational and incremental costs undertaken by the Project Management. Specifically this component will finance the project coordinator, the procurement specialist, other required personnel for the project management, and the project external audits. Which safeguard policies are triggered, if any? Re$ PAD D.6, TechnicalAnnex 10 The safeguard policies Environmental Assessment and Natural Habitats are triggered by the project. No social safeguard policies are triggered. The adaptation measures to be implemented for the Seaflower Marine Protected Area under Component 3 are based on a previously agreed zoning with the local marine resource users that establishes no-take and no entry zones as well as 4 areas for traditional artisan fishing, which resulted from the implementation o f the GEF/WB project "Colombia Caribbean Archipelago Biosphere Reserve: Regional Marine Protected Area System". Significant, non-standardconditions, if any, for: Re$ PAD C.7 Boardpresentation: Loadcredit effectiveness: Covenants applicable to project implementation: 5 A. STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND RATIONALE 1. Country and sector issues Global climate i s changing rapidly. The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC's Third Assessment Report, 2001) has concluded that with the continuing emission o f greenhouse gases, the Earth's mean surface temperature will increase between 1.5 to up to 5.8 degrees Celsius duringthe next 100 years. Preliminary findings o f the Fourth Assessment Report, due to be released by the year 2007, corroborate the range o f the projected increase'. A change o f this magnitude is unprecedented and represents the most serious challenge facing the global ecosystem. The IPCC's Third Assessment Report summarizes the anticipated climate changes, including warmer temperatures, alterations o f the hydrological cycle, drier soils, changes in weather extremes, rising sea levels, changes in agricultural productivity and ecosystem composition. Many o f these changes will restrict access to natural resources and environmental goods and services, ultimately affecting both ecosystem stability, and human well-being. Colombia is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The first national communication (NC 1) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) indicates the high vulnerability o f Colombia to the expected impacts from climate change2 identifying high mountain habitats, insular and coastal areas and health as the areas o f primary concern. More recently, studies commissioned as part o f the preparation o f the second communication and others have confirmed and indicated in more detail trends and impacts in these areas. These vulnerabilities find echo in the findings o f the IPCC. Major vulnerabilities are described below: 0 Highland Andean ecosystems are very vulnerable to climate change impacts. In particular, fragile moorlands, unique to the Northern Andes, with endemic and abundantly diverse flora and fauna, as well as with storage capacity for water and carbon in the soil are expected to be seriously affected by increases in temperature. In some moorlands, the Meteorological, Hydrological and Environmental Studies Institute (IDEAM) has recorded a net increase o f 0.2 - 0.3 "C per decade during the period 1961-1990 and a decrease in monthly rainfall o f between 2 to 3 mm per decade3. Projections recently made with the assistance o f the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) o f Japan indicate that this trend will worsen. Hydrological and temperature changes inthe mountains would result ina loss o f global biodiversity ("no way up" for unique mountain species) and also in a loss o f much o f the environmental goods and services provided by these habitats, especially water supply, basin regulation, and associated hydropower potenti.al. Many rivers that are used to generate hydroelectricity in the region are fed by high altitude lagoons and snow caps. Colombia's power sector i s particularly vulnerable, as two thirds o f all power i s hydro-generated. Destruction o f water regulation systems will contribute to a net decrease in the hydropower potential of the country and therefore eventually lead to a higher level o f GHG from the power sector as it turns to thermal power capacity to make up for the difference. ' The SRES scenarios have been criticized for overestimating future emissions; however, the Post-SRES literature shows an even higher emission range (IPCC, FARworkshop, February, 2005) Primera Comunicaci6n Nacional a1UNFCCC. IDEAM. 2001. Paramos y Ecosistemas Alto Andinos de Colombia, en Condicion Hotspot & Global Climate Tensor. IDEAM2002 7 0 Sea level and sea surface temperature increases will affect insular areas of the country. The National University o f Colombia analyzed possible impacts o f a doubling o f the Carbon Dioxide (C02) emissions between the years 2050 to 2080 and projects a sea level rise o f 2 to 5 mm per year, and a temperature increase between 0.7 and 0.9 "C for the western Caribbean, in comparison to the averages for the period 1961-1990. These projections have been confirmed by the Netherlands Climate Change Program (NCAP) Project executed by the Marine and Coastal Research Institute of Colombia (INVEMAR)4 and are in line with observations made under the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Project (CPACC)5. Sea level increases will likely cause saline intrusion into aquifer-based freshwater supplies in insular and coastal areas. Consequently, the freshwater systems and their biological diversity will be severely affected. In addition, prognostic modeling o f small islands has identified major population displacement as one o f the main threats o f climate change. By 2060, models have predicted a rise o f 40 cm inthe San Andres Archipelago. In San Andres Island, for example, the NC1 estimates a loss of 17% of land area, including most of the coastal zone by 2060 (50 cm increase in sea level). If no action is taken, small islands with dense populations and a lack of interior land on which to relocate coastal communities, will suffer social destabilizing impacts. Finally, the subsidence o f reefs and atolls in the western Caribbean may have implications on sovereignty o f the oceanic area under domain. Increases in sea surface temperature are linked to the bleaching o f corals in the Caribbean and are expected to induce a pole-ward shift o f local fisheries. Higher sea surface temperature i s already threatening the viability of corals in the western Caribbean6, much o f it located in the Colombian territorial sea, which constitute the nursery o f an estimated 65% of fish species inthe area. Coral beds inthe western Caribbean, in particular at remote atolls and reefs are unique and include endemic species o f global biodiversity value. Coral losses will result in loss o f biodiversity, an increase o f vulnerability o f coastal areas and serious threat to food security o f island human population. 0 Climate change is causing increased exposure to tropical vector diseases. The two mosquito-borne diseases with the largest global impact on human health and well-being, dengue and malaria, have recently reemerged as significant public health burdens in Colombia. In the case of malaria, incidence during epidemic years increased from less than 1.5 per 1,000 inhabitants in 1964 to 10.0 in 1983 and almost 18.0 in 1998 (Nacional de Vigilancia en Salud Publica (SIVIGILA), Ministry o f Health). With regards to dengue, 4 "Defining vulnerability of bio-geophysical and social-economic system due to sea level change in the Colombian coastal zone (Pacific and Caribbean) and adaptation measures", which was a significant input to the First National Communication to the climate change convention (UNFCCC). Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Project. Implementation Completion Report. World Bank. 2003. Climate Change impacts are already taken place. During the month of June 2005, Climatic changes that had never occurred before have been observed: The surface sea temperature o f the Caribbean Sea showed an increase by 2 "C during several weeks. This phenomena generated a massive bleaching of the coral reefs (between 70 and 90% o f the registered coral coverage located in a depth of less than 12 m) and lead to the mortality of a very special type of coral populations denominated "Acropora" situated in the Rosario and San Bemardo islands.(INVEMAR, 2005). 8 Colombia had i s first case o f dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in 1989. Since nation-wide dengue surveillance began inthe 1990s, there i s a clear increasingtrend intransmission, with a four-fold increase from 1997 to 2002, year in which 81,83 1 Colombians fell illto dengue and DHF (SIVIGILA, Colombian National Health Institute (INS)/MPS). Almost half o f the population in Colombia, over 20 million people, live in areas where mean temperatures range between 15-26"C, well within the range o f dengue and malaria vectors. Within this area, an increase inmean temperatures of 2°C) is likely to result inan increase in o f the exposure to both diseases. Moreover, climate change also has the potential to significantly increase epidemics in temperate climates that currently experience no transmission. Accordingly, mountain populations that have largely escaped these diseases, because o f the effect o f cold weather, are likely to see exposure to dengue and malaria significantly increased. The implications for an already stressed health sector are serious. Policies and measures that address climate changes need to be mainstreamed into national sector policies to ensure their sustainability. The NC1 was approved by the National Environmental Council (NEC), the highest decision making and coordinating body on environmental matters. Furthermore, the NEC incorporated the recommendations o f the N C1 in the guidelines for a National Policy on Climate Change. However, further sensitization o f policy makers on the global climate change (GCC) issue i s needed and consequently the integration o f the climate dimension insector policies has yet to take place (health, energy, water supply). Uncertain and insufficient information on GCC prevents the adoption of cost-effective adaptation measures. The potential impacts and associated economic costs o f GCC effects may result in significant challenges to Colombia's prospects for sustainable development. While these impacts result from no action o f its own (Colombia's emission o f greenhouse gases i s relatively low), urgent actions are required to document - with a higher level o f certainty -the anticipated impacts, and to formulate cost-effective policy actions and measures as well as implement key pilot adaptation measures. However, historical data and observations on climate trends are not available, for local and regional areas o f the country, sufficiently enough to provide a basis on which to take decisions and make projections. In addition, climate discontinuities and recent trends present anomalies that make correlation with the past difficult and uncertain. Also, information on climate trends i s barely in the public domain and there i s little awareness o f local implications. Institutional arrangements for vector disease control in Colombia are relatively weak. The Colombian health sector has responded to the need for timely, locally adapted interventions through the use of Basic Action Plans (BAPs), which grant autonomy to municipal and state health authorities in the planning and administration o f public funds for vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, other health sector reforms, such as the decentralization o f a unified, vertically oriented vector control program, have resulted in massive staff reductions and a decrease in capacity building and supervision at the local level, thereby debilitating decision making and surveillance o f vector-borne diseases. Thus, BAPs have not been adequately exploited. Deficiencies in local inter-sectoral partnerships and information flow within the health sector itself have further compromised the viability and sustainability o f interventions. However, one promising aspect o f health sector reform i s the transfer o f the National System o f Public Health 9 Surveillance (SIVIGILA) from the Ministry o f Health (MoH) to the National Institute o f Health o f Colombia (INS) as o f 2004. 2. Rationale for Bank involvement The last full Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) was published in December 24, 2002. It considers three priorities: achieving fast and sustainable growth; ensuring that all Colombians benefit from growth, particularly those living in poverty; and building an efficient, accountable and transparent governance. This project contributes to the CAS' strategic focus on protection and conservation o f strategic ecosystems, increasing their adaptive capacity with regard to GCC impacts. Adaptation activities are designed to strengthen local adaptive capacity, reducing risks and contributing to the adoption o f sustainable practices within current programs. Also, the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) include as a key issue (under ensuring environmental sustainability) combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases. Inaddition, the project responds to the guidelines of the Strategic Priority on Adaptation (SPA), a separate Global Environmental Facility (GEF)-funding mechanism for adaptation measures, recently adopted by the Conference o f the Parties (COP) to the UNFCC and made available to support the implementation o f specific adaptation measures, clearly identified as national priorities, to address impacts from climate change. The guidelines require the establishment o f "pilot or demonstration projects to show how adaptation planning and assessment can be practically translated into national policy and sustainable development planning." Colombia i s a fitting choice, as first country, to use this new instrument, given that key vulnerabilities to climate change have been clearly identified and specific pilot measures to address these impacts have been formulated in the context o f development programs. The project will assist in the implementation o f pilot actions that would address unsustainable impacts o f climate change. The World Bank has been involved inclimate change mitigation and adaptation projects and has significant knowledge on the subject. Besides the wide range o f its Climate Change projects funded by the GEF, the Bank has been managing different carbon funds o f about $US 1,000 million. Projects that are particularly relevant to the proposed project are the Colombia Amoya River Project for the high mountain habitat, the Plannina for Adaptation to Global Climate Change Project (CPACC) and the Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change Project (MACC) in the Caribbean for the insular areas. Also the Bank's extensive portfolio in the health sector will complement and add a global overlay on the existing health sector strategy in the country. The Bank also supports the GEF-funded project Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity in the High Andes which intends to increase conservation, knowledge and sustainable use o f globally important biodiversity o f the Colombian Andes. The project does not address climate change issues. The proposed project would complement these activities on biodiversity conservation in high mountain habitats by adding the climate change aspect. Other GEF-fundedproject executed by the "Corporaci6n para el desarrollo sostenible del Archipielago de San Andres, Old Providence and Santa Catalina" (CORALINA) and implemented trough the Bank i s the "Colombia Caribbean Archipelago Biosphere Reserve: Regional Marine Protected Area System (P02.3881). Within this project a large Marine Protected Area (65,000 km2),the " largest in the Americas, was declared and management and zoning plans were formulated to ensure biodiversity, ecosystems and habitats protection within the Seaflower Biosphere Reserve. The proposed project would complement these activities by incorporating the climate change 10 issue. The Bank's portfolio in Colombia also includes activities in Disaster Management that are complemented by the scope o f the proposed operation. Specifically under the PCF-funded Amoya River Project, carbon revenues have been earmarked to contribute to the conservation o f the Paramo Las Hermosas, its source o f water. Resources allocated for conservation would support implementation o f specific measures, which would be complemented with the assistance o f the proposed GEF project. Therefore the Amoya project would provide complementary resources for specific application o f adaptation measures in a local ecosystem. Likewise, the GEF project would contribute to the maintenance o f the mitigation potential of this ecosystem, through the generation o f clean hydroelectric power. This opportunity is unique and would likely constitute a global observatory for specific application o f adaptation measures on a highly vulnerable ecosystem that i s also a sought source o f clean energy, supported through carbon finance, under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). 3. Higher level objectives to which the project contributes The project follows the operational guidelines for the Strategic Priority "Piloting an Operational Approach for Adaptation" (SPA). The project i s in accordance with the guidelines 2, 3, 6 and 9, stating that activities to be funded should be pilots or demonstration projects integrated into national sustainable development and poverty-reduction strategies. The project would include: (i) activities within natural resources management context that generate global environmental benefits, and (ii)adaptation measures that provide other major development benefits (e.g. WEHAB, i.e. water, energy, health, agriculture, biodiversity). The project activities aim at preventing degradation of global commons. For example, the insular component focuses on conservation of globally important biodiversity in the Seaflower reserve and the Marine Protected Area (MPA) Corales del Rosario, San Bemardo e Isla Fuerte in order to contribute to the conservation o f marine ecosystems. In the mountains habitats, the project focuses on the area o f Las Hermosas Massif, a highly diverse mountain biotope, seeking to protect biodiversity, prevent land degradation and conserve environmental services linked to the ability o f the ecosystem to support hydropower generation. The health component protects the global commons by addressing the increase in exposure to tropical vector diseases associated with a warming climate, and therefore mitigates the social and economic consequences o f climate change. Colombia contributed almost 35% o f reported DHF cases in America during the period 1996-2004, and 25% o f the continental malaria transmission in2003 alone (PAHO, 2005). A 30% reduction o fdengue andmalaria incidence inselected pilot areas o f Colombia will contribute to reducing the regional burden o f both diseases that largely affect children below 5 years old. In malaria endemic areas, for example, it is estimated that nearly 25% o f all mortality in children 0-4 years old can be attributed to malaria (Sachs, 2002; Malaney et al, 2004). The health component directly addresses the MDG o f reducing infant and child mortality, reducing infectious diseases. Better surveillance will improve assessment of transmission risk nation-wide, thus facilitating the effective allocation of health resources and more cost-effective preventive responses. This process, in turn, will provide information o f global value on how to tackle anticipated increased exposures to tropical vector diseases. 11 B. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1. Lending instrument The project cost would be financed by a SPA-GEF grant in the amount o f US$5.4 m, with co- financing from (i) the Republic o f Colombia (US$7.2 m), (ii) donors (US$1.3 m); (iii) other and parallel co-financing through the Amoya River Environmental Services Project (US$1.O m), for a total o f US$ 14.9 m. The SPA requires that the majority o f benefits translate into protection o f global biodiversity and prevention o f land degradation. 2. Project development objective and key indicators The project development objective i s to support Colombia's efforts to define and implement specific pilot adaptation measures and policy options to meet the anticipated impacts from climate change. These efforts will be focused on highmountain ecosystems, insular areas and on human health concerns related to the expansion o f areas for vectors linked to malaria and dengue, as identified as priority areas in the National Communications and other studies. Key performance indicators: 0 Availability o f continuous and reliable climate information o f relevance to major climate change vulnerabilities inhealth, mountain ecosystems and insular areas (157 climate stations modernized), through data and analysis provided routinely by IDEAM. 0 Six pilot adaptation activities have been implemented and monitored, addressing vulnerabilities to climate change in high mountain ecosystems, insular and coastal areas and health, including: Maintenance o f the hydropower generation ability, measured through sustained water regulation o f the Las Hermosas Massif on the Amoya river watershed. Adaptation program designed and incorporated in regional development plans for the Las Hermosas Massif. Positive impacts on biodiversity and land degradation documented. Adaptation program designed and incorporated in regional development plans for the Colombian Caribbean insular areas including increased management performance o f key marine ecosystems and reduced vulnerability in water supply to local communities; and Strengthened public health program incorporating management measures to meet the increased threats from dengue and malaria induced by climate change resulting in a 30% reduction o f Malaria and Dengue morbidity within the pilot areas by project closure. 3. Project components a) Making climate, climate variability, and climate change information available for adoption of adaptation measures and policies (total cost US$ 3.1 m; GEF funding US$ 1.0 m). This component seeks to strengthen Colombia's capabilities to produce and disseminate climate information (useful for resource allocation and operational decision making), in support o f adaptation to climate change measures and programs. The component will strengthen IDEAM's capabilities to provide: (i) forecasts to improve resource management andbiodiversity conservation decisions in high mountain ecosystems; (ii) climate scenarios to develop ecosystem management plans land conservation and adaptation options inParamo, insular and coastal areas; 12 and (iii)warnings for Malaria and Dengue. Under the component, the following activities will be supported: (i)improvements in technical and scientific capabilities at I D E M to produce information relevant to climate change; (ii)development o f local climate change scenarios in support o f selection of adaptation measures; (iii) strengthening the existing climate data network o f relevance to climate change by supporting equipment renovation for 157 key climate stations (out of 3100 operated by IDEAM) with at least 20 years o f high quality data (for 1961-1990), includingquality control and assurance; (iv) strengtheningscientific and technical personnel, to ensure long term sustainability o f the project activities. b) Design and implementation of an adaptation program that supports maintenance of environmental services (including hydropower potential) in the Las Hermosas Massif in the central range of the Andes (total cost US$ 3.47 m, GEF funding US$ 1.57m). The Massif i s the most humid high altitude moorland in the planet, a highly diverse biotope o f particular concern for climate change impacts. It is also important for potential hydro-power generation. The selection o f the Massif was made on the basis o f the significant biodiversity in the ecosystem, including endangered or threatened species. The selection o f Las Hermosas enables synergies between this project and the Amoya River project, already approved, which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector. The component supports the following activities: (i)Ecosystem planning and management in Las Hermosas Massif, seeking to maintain its high biodiversity assets; (ii) Maintenance o f potential for hydropower generation through adoption o f measures to protect the Amoya watershed; (iii) Adaptive land-use planning model seeking to reduce impacts from climate change on land degradation. (iv) Improvement o f productive agro-ecosystems and reduction o f their socioeconomic vulnerability to GCC impacts. At the endthe project seeks maintenance to the current level o faccess to environmental services. c) Adaptation measures in Caribbean Insular areas (total cost US$ 2.9 m, GEF funding US$ 1.3 m). The objective of this component i s to support the implementation o f physical adaptation measures in order to reduce the vulnerability o f the Caribbean Insular area, especially with regard to changes in rainfall and temperature and sea-level rise. The activities under this component consist of: (i) Implementation o f GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System)-based monitoring stations in the Western Caribbean (complementing the regional network under CPACC); (ii) Integrated water resources management to enhance the availability o f fresh water inthe Caribbean insular areas (San Andres island); (iii) Implementation o f the marine protected areas system in the Seaflower reserve and the Corales del Rosario, San Bernard0 e Isla Fuerte (CRSBeIF) in order to contribute to the conservation o f marine ecosystems inthe face o f climate impacts; and (iv) Integrated Coastal Management to reduce the vulnerability o f ecosystems, infrastructure and population living close to the coast. At the end the project seeks to maintain resilience o f insular areas to climate impacts. d) Responses to the increased exposure to tropical vector-borne diseases (malaria and dengue) induced by climate change (total cost US$ 4.7 m, GEF funding US$ 1.0m). The objective of this component i s to address the increased exposure to tropical vector-borne diseases (malaria and dengue) induced by climate change through the implementation o f an Integrated Dengue and Malaria Surveillance and Control System, IDMSCS, including an Early Warning System for Malaria and Dengue Surveillance and Control (DMEWS) seeking a 30% reduction in both malaria and dengue morbidities in pilot areas, as a result o f improvements in 13 health management and prevention o f additional exposure caused by climate change. Duringthe Integrated National Adaptation Program (INAP), the IDMSCS will be implemented in approximately 12 pilot municipalities for malaria and 12 for dengue, selected based on perceived climate threats. The project will support the design, implementation and operation o f the IDMSCS: developing a framework that permits the continuous evaluation o f the local risk o f dengue and malaria transmission in the face o f GCC and the determination o f the most appropriate actions in order to prevent epidemics before they begin. (See Annex 1 for further details). The project will contribute to the strengthening o f the institutional capabilities through the evaluation and strengthening of local (municipal) health agencies and through the strengthening the National Health (M&D) Surveillance System ultimately changing the current reactive institutional organization into a proactive public health system. e) Project Management (total cost US$ 0.73m, GEF funding US$ 0.53m). This component will support the overall technical coordination o f Project Activities (including the implementation o f a technical monitoring system) (component el) as well as the administrative and financial management o f the Project (component e2). It will include goods; consultancy services; travel and operational and incremental costs undertaken by the Project Management. Specifically this component will finance the project coordinator, the procurement specialist, other required personnel for the project management, and the project external audits. Sector issuesaddressedby the project The project addresses key vulnerabilities to climate change as identified in vulnerability assessments and other studies. The project also addresses the need for better information on climate. The project contributes to mainstreaming o f climate concerns into the health sector and the development plans for the Las Hermosas Massif and insular and coastal areas. Protection of the Massif will contribute to maintain its hydropower potential, which in turn can be used to displace carbon emission reductions from the power sector. Mainstreaming adaptation measures into policies and developmentplans. Sustainability o f project activities depends on the success in mainstreaming adaptation as a key element in local and regional development plans. The table summarizes the intended process. Policy linkages will be o f use for sector interventions in the power sector, disaster management, and bio- diversity and water management. The close coordination sought between these sectors will support a coherent policy context. Measure Responsibility Mainstreaming Sector policy linkages 1 Improving IDEAM's IDEAM GCC into day to day Change in I D E Mmain thrust technical and scientific operations a;IDEh. from data collection and capacity Project provides support to archiving, towards an agency obtain sustainability. producing climate information requiredfor critical decision making. 2.1. MainstreamingGCC IDEM, with Pilot on mainstreaming GCC GCC in Natural Resource information into ecosystem Cortolima, inNRMplanning. Management (NRM) and planning and management in Corporacibn power sector policy and Las Hermosas Massif Autbnoma Regional planning. del Valle del Cauca ICVC), National Parks. 2.2. Maintenance of water I D E M Water resourcemanagement Learning to managehigh regulation capability of and GCC in the Las Hermosas altitude ecosystems for water 14 relevance for hydropower Massif .egulation. Linkage to Power potential sector planning. 2.3. Improvement o f IDEAM, with GCC in management of 4doption of financial productive agro-ecosystems Cortolima, CVC, productive agro-ecosystems. nstruments for sustainable and reduction of National Parks, local mvironmental services. Input socioeconomic vulnerability in community :o National Parks Policies high altitude moorland eegardingbuffer areas. "paramo" and sub-paramo Linkage to poverty alleviation area of Las Hermosas Massif. policies. 3.1, Mainstreaming GCC INVEMAR, in GCC concerns will be SCC in NRM planning. information into NRM for coordination with mainstreamedinplanning and Linkage to National Park decision-makingprocesses, in Sistema Nacional managing marine protected policies and to Ocean Resource Colombian Caribbean Insular Ambiental (National areas. Management Policies. Areas. -Environmental System Linkage to disaster Colombia) (SINA) management policies. and for municipalities and communities. 3.2. Availability of fresh water Coralina, in Climate mainstreamedinto Alternative Water Resource inthe Caribbean insular areas, collaboration with aquifer operational decisions. Management options for island as well as contribute to its State government communities. more efficient use. 3.3. Support the National Park Unit GCC concerns will be Improved marine reserve areas implementation of the marine (NPU), Coralina (for mainstreamedin planning and management and control. protected areas system in the and INVEMAR with managing marine protected Input to National Park policies. Seaflower reserve and Corales the participation of, areas. Linkage to Biodiversity del Rosario, San Bemardo e Corporaci6n policies. Isla Fuerte (CRSeIF) MAP Aut6noma Regional del Canal del Dique- CARDIQUE (for the CRSBeIF MPA) and Direcci6n General Maritima (DIMAR) - Colombia's Maritime Authority. 3.4. Reduce the vulnerability Coralina, with local Pilot small pilots and assessing Assessment of adaptation of economic activities, communities and key lessons learned and policy options for insular areas. infrastructure, and population stakeholders. implication in highly Linkage to disaster living close to the coast: populated islands. management policies. Testing small scale pilots to adapt to GCC and monitor coastal impact. 4. Integrated Dengue and National Institute of Mainstreamed GCC into day Linkage to Health Sector Malaria Surveillance and Health with the support to day decision making. Planning. Control System, IDMSCS, of IDEAM,Ministry of Integration of the Integrated including an Early Warning Health, State Malaria and Dengue System to improve Malaria governments and Surveillance and Control and Dengue Surveillance and municipalities. System () into state and Control (DMEWS) International expertise municipal operational action will be provided plans in order to assure the through WHOPAHO, funding and intersectoral International Research collaborations necessary for Institutefor Climate implementationof Prediction (IN)and interventions. CDC. 4. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design The Bank's work on environmental issues in Colombia buildsupon opportunities provided under the Kyoto Protocol through sources such as Carbon Finance (CF) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Climate Change Mitigation initiatives, supported through carbon finance include: 15 Jepirachi Carbon Offset Project7, Rio Amoya Environmental Services Project,8 The Rio Frio Carbon Offset Project', San Nicolas Carbon Sequestration Projectlo,and Furatena Agroindustry Carbon Offset Project''. INAP will benefit from the strengthened capacity o f environmental institutions on climate issues, and will complement the ongoing operations by mainstreaming the climate change challenge into the decision making structure o f participating agencies. Climate data collection i s a long term activity that demands long term commitments. The implementation of adaptation programs in the Caribbean (CPACC and MACC) highlight the need to ensure sustainability and local ownership o f any monitoring and data collection activity and reliable methods to secure and compile data collected. These aspects have been incorporated inthe project. Climate change adaptation is a long-term venture that will in the best of cases just ameliorate irreversible changes. As illustrated by the work in adaptation to climate change in the Caribbean, many years o f continuous work are required to establish the basis for successful adaptation programs. The process in Colombia i s beingjump-started on the basis o f an excellent diagnosis made through the national communication and other vulnerability assessments. Yet, it i s clear for all project agencies that the project i s the first step o f a long haul process and therefore that long-term commitments are required to meet the growing challenges o f adaptation to climate change many o f which are likely to result inirreversible changes. Close coordination, clear management and technical leadership are required for multifaceted projects. Bank experience with multi-sector activities has shown the importance o f having a clear, yet simple management structure. The project applies experience on project management in Colombia and applies a structure that combines clear coordination and technical leadership through specialized sector agencies. Relationship to Other Bank Operations in Colombia. The Bank has a significant environment portfolio o f climate related interventions, mostly related to environmental management. This includes: a) Colombia National Protected Areas Conservation Trust Fund Project; b) National Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project - Phase 1 o f the National Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Program; c) Programmatic Development Policy Loan for Sustainable Development, SusDevDPL". Through the proposed Steering Committee, INAP activities will be linked to these other activities which inturn will benefit from the information and analysis on how climate change affects the prospects for sustainable development inthe country. 5. Alternatives considered and reasons for rejection The project design considered two alternative strategies: a) adaptation measures that protect the global commons with important local co-benefits; or b) adaptation measures focused on local impacts. The final design reflects an approach where the majority o f the benefits are important in terms o f protection o f biodiversity, land degradation and human health but where '*ProjectNo. Project No. P074426, Emissions Reduction Purchase Agreement signed January 27,2003. P078220, Emissions Reduction Purchase Agreement signed June 28,2004. Project No. P088752, Emissions Reduction Purchase Agreement signed June 30, 2005. Io Project No. PO98615 I' Project No. PO86455 l2 Additional details are found in annex 2. 16 important goals o f local relevance are also achieved. The project initially considered concentrating efforts only in insular and coastal areas and high mountain ecosystems where global commons were threatened. But, high potential increases in population exposure to malaria and dengue in the country, strong political will and institutional commitment shown by the National Institute o f Health, and high likelihood to reduce dengue and malaria incidence, with reference to ongoing programs, made this component a priority. Additional resources were sought and obtained to support this component. The project gave preference to practical, on the ground, adaptation measures, over the more traditional approach o f institutional strengthening and building enabling environments. The project will strengthen capacity only as it i s required to implement well defined adaptation measures, with high probability o f success. The adaptation measures that will be implemented are the result o f a comprehensive selection process that relied primarily on the basis o f impacts on biodiversity o f global importance and which included the following criteria: replicability, institutional capacity, highprobability o f success, cost-effectiveness and clear additionality. In addition, the project focuses on different geographical areas, themes and institutions instead o f one sole adaptation measure implemented by one institution. The multi-faceted focus o f the project has been chosen consistently with country priorities, as indicated in the First National Communication and expressed by the Ministry o f the Environment, Housing and Territorial Planning. To support this multiple focus the GOC coordinated key governmental agencies with known expertise to address the required themes (health, mountain and insular areas, climate data) and demonstrated ability to manage complex undertakings. During project preparation these agencies performed very well their tasks, operational capacity, and exhibited good technical skills and strong commitment. The executing agencies also have a strong support of the local stakeholders which facilitates the implementation o f the adaptation measures in the sites. The demonstration effect for adaptation o f the project will be available for different sectors thus accelerating the learning experience and the replication o f adaptation measures sector- and region-wide. C. IMPLEMENTATION 1. Partnership arrangements Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of Japan and Japan Frontier Research Institute (JAMSTEC). Under an agreement reached with both institutions, support will be provided to IDEAM for purposes o f the objectives sought under the climate data component. Specifically, MRI and JAMSTEC will provide data from the Earth Simulator for use in the development o f local climate scenarios and selection o f adaptation measures, training and scientific exchanges. International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI). The IRI will provide assistance to the project on making climate, climate variability and climate change information available for day to day operations in selected sectors. It will also provide access to information, scientific expertise and training. Center for Disease Control (CDC). The CDC will assist in the Malaria component o f the project by sharing information on experiences elsewhere and data and scientific exchanges. 17 National Parks Unit. The NPU will assist with the monitoring o f the Sea Flower marine reserve, supporting on site vigilance and data collection. The Netherlands Climate Change Program (NCAP). Under cooperation agreement between the Ministry o f Foreign Affairs o f the Netherlands and the Ministry o f Environment (MoE) o f Colombia, INVEMAR i s conducting pilot projects o f adaptation measures to sea level rise in Colombian coastal areas. Relevant information will be provided to enhance the project data needs. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. The University will continue as the main scientific partner o f IDEAM, participating in training, technical capacity building and leading the definition o f climate change scenarios. It will also support scientific events and disseminate technical results. 2. Institutional and implementation arrangements Implementation Period: The Grant i s expected to become effective in March, 2006 for a five year period. The expected project completion date i s December 2011). General implementation arrangements: The GEF grant beneficiary (the Beneficiary) will be the Republic o f Colombia represented by the Agencia Presidencial para la Acci6n Social y la Cooperacion Intemacional (ACCION SOCIAL). The grant recipient (the Recipient) will be Conservation International Colombia (CI-Colombia) for the benefit o f the Beneficiary. The project will be executed by IDEAM, INVEMAR, Coralina, I N S and CI-Colombia. The administrative and financial management of the Project (component e2) will be carried out by CI-C~lombia'~.CI-Colombia successfully executed the PDF B resources, and has been assessed to have sufficient experience and the adequate organizational capacity for the administrative and financial management o f the project. IDEAMwill be in charge o f the overall technical coordination of Project Activities, including the implementation o f a technical monitoring system (component el)). The executing agencies are: IDEAM (components (a), (b) and (el)), Coralina and INVEMAR (component c); Instituto Nacional de Salud (component d) and CI-Colombia (component e2). CI-Colombia will enter into a subsidiary agreement with the other executing agencies. The subsidiary agreement will include the financial and administrative obligations o f CI-Colombia, the obligations o f IDEAM as overall technical coordination o f Project Activities, and the obligations o f each executing agency. For activities related to the Amoya watershed, IDEAMwill coordinate with ISAGEN. Technical implementation arrangements: Steering Committee of INAP. The main responsibility o f the Steering Committee (SC)I4 will be to assure the attainment o f the projects objectives and targets. The SC will also provide guidance on the implementation of NAP and take high level decision regarding the project's development, technical difficulties and management issues. The SC will approve the Annual Operating Plans (AOP) o f the project. Practitioners and scientists could be invited to participate in the SC meetings to provide technical support for decision-making processes regarding the project l3CI-Colombia is a recognizedNGO with broadenvironmentalexperience inhigh mountains and insular ecosystems l4The SC will beconstitutedbythefollowingentities: representativesoftheMinistries ofthe Environment;Social Protection and Energy; representatives of the ExecutingAgencies and other public sector entities. 18 I D E M will carry out the overall technical coordination of the project activities. As such, IDEAM will be responsible for overall Project planning, coordination, implementation, supervision and overall technical monitoring and evaluation. I D E Mwill also be responsible for maintaining the Steering Committee o f the Project; guide executing agencies in the AOP" preparation process and submit AOP to the SC for approval and to CI-Colombia for Bank's approval. Progress reports will also be prepared by IDEAM integrating the results o f the monitoring and evaluation activities and setting out the measures recommended to ensure the efficient implementation o f the Project. CI-Colombia will carry out the administrative and financial management o f the project. Specifically, CI-Colombia shall: i)issue an operational manual containing inter alia specific provisions on detailed arrangements for the carrying out o f the project; ii) with the assistance o f and in agreement with the Executing Agencies, shall update the Procurement Plan and provide the AOP for Bank's approval; iii)carry out the approved AOP inaccordance with its terms. For each component, an executing agency (see figure below) will be responsible for the technical execution of the activities under the respective component16. This will be done with the support o f project partners including national, regional and local governmental entities, (Ministryo f Social Protection, Ministryof Agriculture, National Park Unit, autonomous regional authorities (CARS); state and municipal health authorities, etc) and local and regional organizations (CI-Colombia; other NGOs, universities and associations). Executing agencies: IDEAM is a national research institute which coordinates the Colombian Environmental Information System and which i s responsible for meteorology, hydrology, and related environmental studies. In this project IDEAM will on the one hand be in charge o f the overall technical coordination o f Project Activities (including the implementation o f a technical monitoring system) and on the other hand be the executing agency for the Climate Scenarios and the HighMountain Ecosystems components. I N S i s a governmental agency with administrative autonomy affiliated to the Colombian Health Ministry. It is responsible for the public health surveillance and control system. Specifically INS implements and operates the processes o f the National Surveillance System; supports the MH in developing regulations, technical guidelines and strategies for public health surveillance; supports public health surveillance actions in departments, municipalities and districts o f the country; coordinates, advices and supervises the National Laboratory Network. I N S will be in charge o f the Health component. l5The AOP will include statement of specific objectives for the year, a description of the activities, expected outputs, monitoring indicators, detailed estimated budgets, a procurement plan, indicating the sources of financing in the budget. l6Componentcoordinator: Each executing agency will assign acoordinator as part ofthe organizationalstructure ofthe component. The coordinator will be responsible for the following activities: organizing the working groups of the component, ensuring the participation of all the involved partners in the development of the component; develop the AOP of the component with the support of the IDEAM; support CI-Colombia in the update process of the Procurement Plan; develop the TORSof the required consulting services and specifications for required equipment. Other responsibilities are described in Annex 6. 19 INVEMAR is the national coastal and marine research institute, manages a reference laboratory inthe areas o f their competency; and supports policy development incoastal and marine areas. It undertakes basic and applied research on conservation and sustainable use o f natural resources in Colombia's coastal and insular areas and oceanic ecosystems, and it i s responsible for GCC issues inmarine areas. INVEMAR will be responsible for relevant oceanic data gathering and for the continental insular and coastal component inthe project. Coralinais the Corporation for the Sustainable Development o f the Archipelago of San Andres, Old Providence and Santa Catalina i s the CAR for this archipelago. Its mandate i s to manage the environment and natural resources so as to promote sustainable development in its jurisdiction. Inthis project Coralina will beresponsible for the oceanic Caribbean Insular Area component. CI-Colombiawill be responsible o f the administrative and financial management o fthe Project. CI-Colombia's experience in conservation work in critical habitats will facilitate an efficient management o f the project. CI's technical advice on conservation issues will complement the skills o f the project team. 3. Monitoringand evaluationof outcomeshesults IDEAM will be responsible o f the implementation o f a technical monitoring and evaluation system. The Terms o f Reference o f such system will be produced before effectiveness. The M&E system will be fully operating 6 months after effectiveness. A detailed monitoring and evaluation guidelines and system will be incorporated inthe Operational Manual o f the project as soon as available .which will be completed before effectiveness. IDEAM will submit to the Bank annual project progress reports integrating the results o f the monitoring and evaluation activities and setting out the measures recommended to ensure the efficient implementation o f the Project. CI-Colombia will issue a monitoring report on the financial and administrative performance o f the project. The Bank will conduct supervision missions to jointly review progress made against objectives and performance indicators. Monitoring i s key both for local purposes as well as for the documentation o f global benefits. The Midterm review (MTR)will be carried out not later than June 30,2009 to evaluate progress achieved inthe implementation o f the Project. 4. SustainabilityandReplicability Sustainability:Impacts from climate change are gradual and long term. Adaptation measures are intended to result in long-term benefits, ensuring the sustainability o f development processes. On the other hand, adaptation does not always yield net benefits inthe immediate future, but can not be postponed until it i s too late. The measures supported under this project take into account this long-term character and specifically aim to support Colombia's efforts to define and implement policy options to meet the anticipated impacts from climate change. The project with its partners will ensure the mainstreaming o f adaptation measures into development plans and regional policies in the Las Hermosas Massif and the San Andres Archipelago, as well as within the health sector for tropical vector-borne diseases. 20 The long term strategic goal of the project is to promote sustainable, climate resilient development. The project will assist in the development o f a framework o f activities and the implementation of specific actions that would address unsustainable impacts o f climate change in the natural resource base of the country and in the human health. There i s also a near-term benefit in the expected 30% reduction o f Malaria and Dengue morbidity, in selected pilot areas, by project closure. The commitments being made at the national level, through the MoE and at the technical level through I D E M and Von Humboldt Institute, are long term. The formulation of adaptation programs with GEF resources provides a basis for long term actions by current and future administrations. The monitoring program will provide the basis o f long-term follow up o f outcomes and eventual corrective actions. The adaptation measures implemented under the project would provide useful practical examples on how climate change impacts can be addressed and information useful for the design o f future adaptation programs. Replicability: As the first SPA operation, the project has replication potential within and outside of Colombia. Thus, the project will emphasize its learning nature. It will include a comprehensive monitoring system. Project results will be disseminated to other areas with similar vulnerable ecosystems both in Colombia and throughout the region. In addition it i s expected that the National Climate Change Strategy will bebased on project analysis. The MTR will be scheduled to coincide with the production o f substantial initial assessments o f the activities, with an emphasis on the initial assessment of the impacts associated with pilot activities, and the completeness o f data gathering efforts. During project preparation each component and each pilot adaptation measure was developed with the participation of local institutions with close links to the affected communities, and key stakeholders were consulted. The project takes into account community perceptions to social well-being and threats to their economic development. Pilot site selection has been given careful consideration: criteria have been developed to include community participation, and in many cases beneficiaries co-finance i s sought. Each component has allocated resources to critically assess the action taken, draw lessons learned, and define a strategy on how best to replicate and scale up the pilot. Replicability has beenmainstreamed inproject preparation and i s at the top o f the priorities o fthe deliverables sought by the Government o fColombia. 5. Critical risks and possible controversial aspects Risk Rating Mitigation Overarching macroeconomic / fiscal Moderate Project resources have been committed by executing constraints remain a key risk in agencies by time o f appraisal. External resources have Colombia. been committed by partners by time o f appraisal. Given the long-term nature o f adaptation High Sustainability mechanisms and local ownership are measures, there is the risk that future criteria for the selection o f adaptation measures and administrations may not support the pilot sites. Local implementation arrangements will be activities under the project. considered for all measures. Increased availability of information on climate change will facilitate integration o f these issues inlocal strategic priorities. Mainstreaming of climate change issues High Incorporation o f climate change perspective in the remain a concern given the multitude o f health program and in the development perspectives for challenges being faced by the nation the Las Hermosas Massif and the insular and coastal 21 areas is part o f the project. Given the relevance o f these ecosystems to productive sectors and the benefits o f the MDEWS for the health sector, it i s unlikely that policy makers will ignore the issue. Allocation o f national counterpart Moderate Allocation o f counterpart resources will be made prior resources may delay implementation to appraisal or the first year o f operation o f the project. Financial constraints may limit Moderate Long term co-financing arrangements will be sustainability o f adaptation measures undertaken. Cost benefit and financial analysis will provide information on the adaptation measures viability and long term benefits Social unrest prevents access to the upper High The social and environmental programs agreed under Amoya watershed. the Amoya project provide the basis for dialogue with local community Delays in the implementation o f the Moderate Adaptation measures sought are complementary to those Amoya project, due to unforeseen already agreed with the community by the Amoya difficulties to obtain financial closure. project. The proposed interventions are independent, although the simultaneous implementation will create synergies for the benefit o f the rural poor in the watershed. Possible reductions in impact (in terms o f Moderate The site selection criteria will take the social unrest in less reduction in malarid dengue contiguous areas into consideration. morbidity) resulting from either a) transmission o f the diseases in contiguous The project has assigned funds for institutional areas o f armed conflict (where strengthening o f the entities involved in the project. surveillance and control i s not in Most project activities are aimed at improving and operational); and/or b) lack o f motivation increasing municipal and state institutional capacities. of municipal officials/ relevant staff in some o f your pilot municipalities. Overall risk assessment: High. Controversial aspects: There are no controversial aspects. The science o f climate change has strongly established the basis for the impacts to be addressed by the project. 6. Loadcredit conditions and covenants Conditions of negotiations: Draft o f the subsidiary agreement between the Recipient (CI- Colombia), the technical coordinator (IDEM) and the executing agencies; confirmation o f technical coordinators at the executing agencies. D. APPRAISAL SUMMARY 1. Economic and financial analyses (See Annex 9) The INAP project demonstrates economic efficiency at three levels: (a) the pilot nature o f the project provides efficiency because it saves learning cost, evaluates design assumptions, and permits adjustments o f the measures before its replication at a national level i s being replicated; (b) the preliminary economic analysis o f one adaptation measure in each component resulted in economic benefits higher than the economic costs o f implementing them; (c) the procurement procedures adopted by the project will favor minimum cost for significant acquisition o f goods and services. 22 A preliminary economic analysis o f selected adaptation measures in each component was undertaken to illustrate the economic efficiency o f the type o f adaptation measures covered by the project. The analysis assessed direct economic benefits and costs associated with the adaptation measures applying standard economic methodology. The cost-benefit ratio was calculated for each measure resulting in higher economic benefits than cost in all cases. This analysis was undertaken with the available information at the formulation level that will be 1 1 improved and validated at the implementation phase. Component 1 Opportunity Benefit Other cost cost Cost Ratio Caribbean Of existing water Economic cost o f water supplied by InsularArea supply: 2.44 proposed system: 4 US$/m3 0.83 to 1.64 US$/m3 High Mountain Learning cost: Ecosystem US$O.l9 m 1.93 US$ 0.1 million Health Per avoided case: Cost associated with proposed component Malaria: US$ 81 3.7 measure: Dengue: US$52 US$ 3.5 million Cost effectiveness: The project supports adaptation measures selected and formulated based on cost-effectiveness criteria. These criteria will be applied to all proposed activities, based on data on unit costs and how the activities will aim to increase cost efficiency over time. Contracts for goods and services will be subject to Bank guidelines and will use open and internationally competitive practices. In addition, economic analysis will applied as well as an incremental cost test, before funds are allocated. Incremental Costs: An incremental cost analysis has been completed (see Annex 15): The project will provide complementary support to existing and planned (baseline) local activities related with the sustainable management o f natural resources, and health systems, to adjust them for reducing or preventing expected GCC impacts. The GEF alternative will meet the baseline development goals o f sustainable management o f natural resources, health systems as well as global environmental objectives o f reduction and prevention of expected GCC. The scope o f the incremental cost analysis i s limited geographically, thematically (depending o f the natural resources) and institutionally depending o f institutions in charge o f their administration. Baseline costs were identified consulting official investment plans o f the institutions included in the project boundary (scope of analysis), identifying specific programs and activities that relates with the ecosystem or element that will be affectedby GCC addressed by the project. Where the investment plans didn't specify the projected geographically location o f the investment, the total costs were reduced applying the ratio o f the corresponding project boundary area compared with the total jurisdictional area o f the institution. Similarly, when the investment plan didn't cover the project implementation period 2006-2010, the cost was adjusted assuming an equivalent investmentlevel. All figures where estimated inpresent values. The difference between the cost o f the baseline scenario (US$ 15.6 million) and the cost o f the GEF alternative (US$ 21.0 million) i s estimated at US$ 5.4 million. This represents the incremental cost o f meeting the expected GCC impacts. 23 2. Technical The project seeks to better document Climate, Climate Variability and Climate Change in Colombia and their impacts, required for the proper formulation and long-term monitoring o f adaptation measures. In addition, the project would support national institutions and stakeholders for the formulation and implementation o f adaptation programs and pilot measures. Preliminary adaptation programs and pilot measures, include: i)strengthening o f the existing national health strategy through the design and implementation o f an Integrated Dengue and Malaria Surveillance and Control System, IDMSCS, including an Early Warning System (EWS) for the improvement o f Malaria and Dengue surveillance and control in Colombia; ii)design and implementation o f an adaptation strategy in Las Hermosas Massif consisting o f a pilot adaptation program for sustainable agriculture management and an action plan to reduce the vulnerability o f water supply for human consumption; iii)mainstreaming GCC considerations inPOTSand Protected Areas definition and management processes in Las Hermosas Massif and insular and coastal areas; iv) a pilot project for rainwater harvesting, recovering and treatment o f waste water, to reduce San Andres Island vulnerability o f freshwater supply and mitigate GGC impacts on the island aquifers. The project will provide support for the design and implementation o f the corresponding monitoring and evaluation systems to identify trends and assess the effectiveness o f adopted measures. The technical design o f the project i s based on technical studies implemented during project preparation, partially funded through a PDF-B. The studies included the following analysis: For highland ecosystems: An assessment was carried to select the area o f the project. A vulnerability assessment was carried out for agriculture and water supply in the Las Hermosas Massif. The identification o f information gaps and necessities for the definition of the vulnerability o f Las Hermosas Massif face io GCC impacts. For insular and coastal areas: An assessment was made o f needs and requirements for a monitoring of climate variables that could be integrated with existing networks inthe Great Caribbean Region. An analysis was also made o f the vulnerability o f potable water supply and freshwater supply for domestic uses. Available information on marine ecosystems in the Colombian Caribbean insular and continental coastal areas was also considered. Under the health activity: An analysis was made o f monitoring and early warning system for tropical vector diseases, considering the climate change issue. Also, the project preparation team prepared an analysis of malaria and dengue surveillance operation and information systems employed by I N S and proposed new tools. A study was made o f available data on regional trends o f climate change indicators. Finally an institutional management analysis o f stakeholders and other agencies was carried out as well as a financial analysis framework for the selection o f adaptation measures. 3. Fiduciary Financial management. A financial management of the beneficiary was conducted with satisfactory results. An annex with the results o f the financial management i s found inthis PAD. Auditing arranpements. The financial audit for the project expenditures will be carried out in accordance with Terms o f Reference prepared according to the audit policy o f the Bank in effect since July 1, 2003. The Terms of Reference and the appointment o f the auditor are the 24 responsibility o f CI-Colombia. Operational, financial and audit procedures will be detailed in the Operational Manual that will be sent for the Bank's no objectionbefore Boardpresentation. Disbursement: A project special account will be opened. The account will be managed by CI- Colombia, which will be responsible for sending withdrawal applications together with adequate documentation in accordance with Bank disbursement procedures. The disbursements will be performed based on a complete documentation o f the expenditures reviewed by the Bank. The disbursement will be executed in accordance to Statements o f Expenditures (SOEs). Executing CI-Colombia will maintain the supporting documentation for the expenditures clarifying their availability for review by Bank and by independent auditors. Procurement: The procurement arrangements and plans have been discussed with CI-Colombia and will be included in the Operational Manual. CI-Colombia will be responsible and would follow Standard Bank Procedures for all Project Procurement, and ensure enforcement in procurement by beneficiaries. An 18-month procurement plan and all procurement procedures are being included in the Operational Manual. Procurement would include consulting services, goods, civil works and non consulting services. Annex 8 provides more detail. 4. Social The project i s expected to generate social benefits from an increased adaptive capacity o f ecosystems, as well as from reduced incidence of malaria and dengue. The increased availability o f information on GCC impacts as well as the management associated with the uncertainties related to GCC impacts will enable decision makers to implement adaptation measures oriented towards the protection o f vulnerable populations. The specific adaptation measures will work against the collapse o f vulnerable productive systems thereby avoiding migration o f populations or adoption o f unsustainable practices. Inthe Caribbean insular and coastal areas the project will improve sustainable access to fresh water. Without adaptation strategies, it i s expected that GCC impacts would increase poverty; not only because local economies (tourism, fishing) depend on productive coastal and marine resources but also because local public and private sectors do not have the funding or expertise to deal with the potential damage to coastal human settlements and infrastructures. Finally, the project i s expected to reduce malaria and dengue incidence by 30 % within pilot areas. Extensive consultations have been undertaken and continue to be held with key stakeholders. Two workshops were held in the Archipelagos o f San Andres and Rosario-San Bernard0 with local governmental representatives; communities and representatives o f the local governments, tourism, fisheries and water supply sectors. Information on GCC scenarios and possible local effects was presented by the PDFB coordination team. Adaptation options to GCC were discussed and a short list o f adaptation measures was recommended for further analysis and possible inclusion inthe project. The scientific community, marine and insular component, also was consulted through a technical workshop during project preparation. Main topics addressed included the identification o f research topics, description of the expected social benefits and the design o f the monitoring system for the Western Caribbean Colombian insular areas. Consultations continue to be held with key stakeholders (including local government authorities and non-governmental 25 organizations) in Las Hermosas Massif. Inter-agency meetings have taken place to define activities and involvement during INAP's implementation phase. Proposed implementation agencies have held many coordination meetings and consultations. 5. Environment There are no major adverse environmental impacts expected as a result o f this project. Minor environmental impacts might be expected from some on the ground investments. The project i s designed to be entirely positive from an environmental point o f view, particularly by protecting vulnerable ecosystems from the impact o f GCC. Some expected direct positive impacts include: (i)reduced vulnerability of the highmountain ecosystems and Caribbean insular and coastal areas in the face o f the climatic variations (CV) and o f GCC, as well as contribution to the maintenance o f the environmental services; (ii)reduced uncertainty o f impacts o f GCC and formulation o f adequate adaptation measure; (iii)mitigation o f impacts o f unsustainable agricultural practices and development and implementation o f sustainable alternatives; (iv) reduced vulnerability o f ago-systems and planning and management of water supply; (v) increased public awareness building on adaptation needs and increased social and institutional capacity to manage the ecosystems; (vi) environmental benefits from the rationale and selective use of insecticides An Environmental Assessment will be performed as part o f the preparation o f the adaptation measures. 6. Safeguardpolicies The safeguard policies Environmental Assessment and Natural Habitats are triggered by the project. N o social safeguard policies are triggered. The adaptation measures to be implemented for the Seaflower Marine Protected Area under Component 3 are based on a previously agreed zoning with the local marine resource users that establishes no-take and no entry zones as well as areas for traditional artisan fishing, which resulted from the implementation o f the GEF/WB project "Colombia Caribbean Archipelago Biosphere Reserve: Regional Marine Protected Area Svstem". Pest Management (OP 4.09) [I 11 Cultural Property (OPN 11.03,being revised as OP 4.11) [I [I Involuntary Resettlement(OPIBP 4.12) [I [I IndigenousPeoples (OD 4.20, being revised as OP 4.10) [I [I Forests(OPIBP 4.36) [I [I Safety of Dams (OPIBP 4.37) [I [I Projects inDisputed Areas (OPIBPIGP 7.60)* [I [I Projects on International Waterways (OPIBPIGP 7.50) [I [I 7. PolicyExceptionsand Readiness N o policy exceptions are required. aBy supporting the proposed project, the Bank does not intend to prejudice thefinal determination of the parties` claims on the disputed areas 26 Annex 1: Country and Sector or Program Background Colombia: Integrated National Adaptation Project This is the first project submitted to Council under the Strategic Priority on Adaptation. The choice o f country and climate impacts i s most adequate. Colombia has played a pioneering role in the region and indeed the community of nations in the climate change field through: internalization at its highest decision making levels of the climate change agenda; the forceful actions taken in terms o f institutional strengthening at the Ministry and regional and sector agencies; the quality o f the vulnerability assessment undertaken in the context o f the enabling activities under the UNFCCC; and the role the country i s playing under the Clean Development Mechanism and the Kyoto Protocol. Colombia is also a fitting choice, given the well documented vulnerabilities and the potentially large impacts that climate change would impose on the development process o f the nation. Given the natural resource base o f the country, climate change impacts are anticipated to have significant and long-term effects on fragile and unique ecosystems, accelerate the pace o f land degradation, contribute to the impoverishment o f biodiversity of species o f global importance (such as high altitude flora and fauna and unique corals in the western Caribbean), increase the exposure o f its citizens to tropical vector diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, and generally affect the quality o f life and prospects o f development o f its citizens. Indeed, the impacts o f climate change are already being documented through well designed and pioneering efforts undertaken under the aegis o f the National Communications process and other studies. Unprecedented warming o f the Caribbean Sea, linked to massive coral bleaching, drying up, warming and rainfall changes inthe mountains and the appearance o f tropical disease vectors at 2,000 m altitude are part o f the emerging picture. It is inthis context that the project is being formulated to address the top priorities identified in vulnerability assessments and to start what is likely to be a long-drawn process o f adaptation to climate change. The support from the GEF will make viable the actions proposed under the project. A partnership with agencies from Japan, and North America will complement the base o f financial and scientific resources that are being committed to ensure that this project i s a forceful and influential step inthe hardroad to adaptation. The NC-1 identified high mountain habitats, insular and coastal areas and human health as the areas o f primary concern. More recently, studies commissioned as part o f the preparation o f the second communication and others have confirmed and indicated in more detail trends and impacts in these areas. These vulnerabilities find echo in the findings o f the IPCC. The key sector issues include: The uncertain and insufficient knowledge and information on GCC makes a society more vulnerable to changes in climatic patterns and prevents the adoption of cost-effective adaptation measures. Lack o f information on climate, climate variability and climate change increases the vulnerability o f the nation and prevents decision making on steps to reduce vulnerability 27 including the adoption o f adaptation measures. It also makes difficult an efficient allocation o f scarce resources to address these issues. Further, information available, even that generated from recognized world-class institutions has limited application at the local and regional level and or i s associated to highlevels o f uncertainty when own scaled to regional domains. While under efforts sponsored during the formulation o f the Project, progress was made on the identification o f plausible scenarios, including a pioneering effort to downscale MRI-generated data, using the Earth Simulator, much more i s required to provide an adequate basis o f information and reduction o f uncertainties related to anticipated local impacts o f climate change and effects on climate variability. HighlandAndean ecosystemsare very vulnerableto climate change impacts Highland Andean ecosystems are very vulnerable to climate change impacts. In particular, glacial retreat in the Andes i s happening at an alarming rate (Corripio, 2004; IRD, 2004). Recent measurements show catastrophic declines in glacier volumes which are likely to result in substantial impacts on water flows to Andean valleys. At lower mountain altitutes, changes observed include loss o f water regulation, increased likelihood o f flash fires and changes in ecosystem composition and resilience. Warming i s also affecting high altitude moorlands, ecosystems, with unique and abundantly diverse flora and fauna, as well as a storage area for water and carbon in the soil. Hydrological and ecological changes o f this magnitude would result in a loss o f global biodiversity ("no way up" for unique mountain species) and also in a loss o f much o f the environmental goods and services provided by these mountains, especially water supply, basin regulation, and associated hydropower potential. On this last point, many rivers that are used to generate hydroelectricity in the region are glacier-fed. In addition, many o f the valleys in the Central Andes have low rainfall patterns and largely depend on the regulated flows from glaciers and snowcaps for water supply. Destruction o f natural water regulation systems will contribute to a gradual process o f desertification with damaging implications to ecosystems and the services they provide. Despite the critical importance from a climatic perspective, to date there i s no comprehensive adequate climatic information on these areas. Likewise, currently, resource management and planning decisions in these areas are being taken without consideration for the implication o f climate change and climate variability. In some moorlands, IDEAM has recorded a net increase o f 0.2 - 0.3 "C per decade during the period 1961-1990 and a decrease in monthly rainfall o f between 2 to 3 mm per decade (IDEAM17). Hydrological and temperature changes in the mountains would result in a loss o f global biodiversity ("no way up" for unique mountain species) and also in a loss o f much o f the environmental goods and services provided by these habitats, especially water supply, basin regulation, and associated hydropower potential. Impact on energy generation. A reduction in the water flows from Las Hermosas Massif will have severe impacts on the ecosystem's ability to generate clean energy. On a wider scale, the l7 Paramos y Ecosistemas Alto Andinos de Colombia, en Condicibn Hotspot & Global Climate Tensor. IDEAM 2002 28 impact o f changes in the water cycle and the drying o f high altitude ecosystems i s o f strategic importance for Colombia's power sector; which relies to a large extent on hydropower to meet demand (see Figure lo), making the sector a relatively small source o f greenhouse gases. Two- thirds o f capacity and 80 percent o f demand are met by hydropower. The ability to continue to generate power usinghydrological resources depends on the continuingprovision o f stable water flows in high mountains and the pattern o f precipitation. A reduction in water flows and/or an increase in the uncertainty o f supply will force the sector to increase its share o f thermal capacity. This already happened during the years 1991-1992, when an El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) reduced precipitation, forcing the country to ration power supply, with substantial costs to the country and impacts on industry, agriculture, and exports. Thus, adaptation measures to conserve the Massifs ability to regulate water flows will contribute to the mitigation o f greenhouse gases from the power sector. The project aims at executing long-lasting measures designed to protect this environmental service. Specific measures being considered include: (i) conservation o f natural vegetation o f riparian belts along side streams; (ii) conservation and recovery o f soil cover in the Amoya watershed to maintain capture o f horizontal precipitation, and carbon storage in the soil; and, (iii)adoption o f a management program to prevent and mitigate activities (including fires) that would hrther reduce water retention capability inthe soil. The implementation will beginin2006. Figure 12. Current composition of power sector generation capacity Source: Long-term Planning for the Power Sector, 2004. UPME, Ministry o f Mines and Energy, Colombia Francis 20.9% FueloiVStem IPeltcin44.4% Linkage to the Amoya environmental services project (a carbon finance supported activity). Maintaining the potential to feed hydropower generation in Colombia is important as the country depends on these resources for about two-thirds o f power requirements. Permanent disruptions in water supply caused by impacts induced by climate change in high mountain ecosystems would force the sector to diversify resources. This process would very likely lead to a gradual carbonization, as natural gas and other fossil fuels would be used to meet any gaps. In effect, the long-term planning for the sector now includes a scenario o f increased thermal 29 capacity to prevent over-reliance on hydropower. Movingto thermal generation will mean higher financial and environmental costs as most o f the hydropower capacity already installed has been amortized and the costs of operation are significantly lower than the costs o f operating coal or gas generation units. Moreover, increasing the thermal capacity will lead to higher rates o f exposure to airborne pollutants such as NOx and particulate matter whose negative health impacts have been demonstrated. Under the Amoya project, an 80 MW run-of-river hydropower generation unit will be built usingthe stream o f the Amoya River fed by moorlands o f Las Hermosas, located in the central range of the Andes, above 3500 m. The Amoya plant is expected to displace thermal generation in the region and will sell the resulting carbon emission reductions to the World Bank. The project will invest 10% o f the expected carbon revenues (about E$ 2 million, during the next 14 years)'* in programs designed to ensure sustainable water supply; these programs would bejointly formulated with INAP. Specifically, the carbon revenues, generated by the operation o f Amoya will be earmarked for activities that would document changes in the ecosystem and formulate and implement adaptation programs, thus also constituting one pioneering example o f combined mitigation-adaptation combined efforts. The activities supported under Amoya include: a) characterization, planning and conservation o f the soil cover inthe moorlands; b) water cycle study in the mountain; c) monitoring and conservation program for endangered mega fauna; d) support for sustainable agriculture at lower altitudes. By linking carbon revenues to activities to conserve the ecosystem that regulates and provides the water for power generation, the project has a positive sustainability cycle (see figure 3). The clean power generation results in the displacement o f current and future thermal capacity and which can be purchased under the CDM. Some o f these revenues are investing in conserving the moorlands, actions that would contribute to maintain a sustainable water cycle, under threat by climate change and other anthropogenic impacts. Maintaining a sustainable water cycle would ensure s secure water supply to Amoya, which in turn can continue to displace thermal generation and gain carbon emission reduction revenues. The INAP and Amoya projects demonstrate the potential for synergisms between carbon finance and GEF-funded activities on adaptation. While there i s widespread concern about social unrest in Colombia, the current administration has advanced in securing a more stable environment and dialogue with armed groups. In particular, the areas where the project will be executed have consistently showed gains in security and reduction o f conflict. In the Amoya watershed a wide agreement has been reached with the local community for support o fproject activities. Sea level and sea surface temperature increases will affect insular areas of the country Small islands and low-lying coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to the effects o f global climate change (GCC), because of their limited natural resources, fragile and closely linked l8Amoya RiverEnvironmental ServicesProject.World Bank ReportNo. 26364-C0,2004. 30 ecosystems, narrow economic bases, small area, geographical dispersion and relatively high population densities. Possible impacts of GCC and associated phenomena on coastal, insular and oceanic environments are: mean sea level rise, increased mean air and sea-surface temperatures, coastal erosion, marine ecosystems loss, salinity intrusion, changed oceanic oscillation and rainfall patterns, and altered frequency o f severe weather events like tropical hurricanes and related occurrences (for example, storm surges). These impacts entail risks in terms o f loss o f life and damage to property and infrastructure that can easily cripple small economies. (IPCC, 2001; GESAMP, 2001; IDEAM, 2001; INVEMAR,2003; UNFCC, 2005) Colombia's Caribbean insular areas totals 61.8 km2,o f emerged territory, o f which 90 percent i s inhabited with a total population o f about 70,000 (DANE, 2000). Considering that the entire emerged area o f small islands i s rightly defined as coastal areas, all inhabitants will be affected by the impacts o f GCC. Colombian Caribbean inhabited islands are: Islas del Rosario, Islas de San Bernardo and Isla Fuerte; and the major islands o f the San Andres Archipelago: San Andres, Old Providence and Santa Catalina. In addition to the inhabited islands, the San Andres Archipelago include oceanic cays, atolls and banks; the largest o f which are Roncador, QuitasueAo, Serrana, Serranilla, Bolivar, Albuquerque, Bajos (Shoals) Nuevo and Alicia. Rosario and San Bernardo Archipelago also include shoals, the largest o f which are Bushel1and Burbujas located mid-south section o f the continental shelf in between Rosario and San Bernardo. (INVEMAR-UAESPNN-CARDIQUE-EPACARTAGENA -DIMAR, 2003) There i s strong scientific evidence o f connectivity between these ecosystems. Steady and regular interannual currents and climate driven systems regulate the spawning and dispersion o f eggs and larvae drifting along currents, some o f them sharing life cycles through out different locations. Moreover water masses and mesoscale oceanographical phenomena can be traced along the Caribbean basin connecting these two insular systems which may include large scale transfer o f energy, pollution transport, among others. In Colombia's Caribbean islands, local economies depend mainly on tourism, commerce, industrial and artisan fishing and traditional agriculture. For example, coral reefs in the mentioned archipelagos produces 12% o f the total fisheries o f the country, and islands tourism stands for 0,l % o f the gross national product -GNP- of Colombia. (MINAMBIENTE, 1998) It is estimated that under the scenario o f a doubling of C02 content in the atmosphere for the period 2050 - 2080 the following changes could be expected in the Islands o f the Colombian Caribbean: Mean Sea Level could rise between 2 and 5 millimeters per year, air temperature could rise between 0,7 and 0,9 "C beyond mean values observed for the period 1961 - 1990, and the annual rainfall for San Andres and Old Providence could have an increment between 15% and 20%, while in the continental islands o f El Rosario and San Bernardo the increment would be between 7% and 10%. (Universidad Nacional, 2005) Sea-level rise and climate change, coupled with other environmental changes, may disrupt fisheries and tourism through the loss of key ecosystems (i.e. coral reefs), beaches through coastal erosion, coastal inundation, degradation o f coastal ecosystems (mangroves), saline intrusion and damage to critical infrastructures and important and unique cultural and spiritual sites and traditional heritage sites. 31 Increased exposure to tropical vector diseases RATIONALEI9 The two mosquito-borne diseases with the greatest global impact on human health and well- being-malaria and dengue-have recently reemerged as significant public health burdens in Colombia. The incidence o f malaria during epidemic years increased from fewer than 15 cases per 10,000 inhabitants in 1964 to 58 per 10,000 in 1983 and nearly 156 per 10,000 in 1998. The rate o f dengue transmission has also shown an increasing trend with a fourfold increase in cases from 1997 to 2002. 81,831 Colombians fell illto dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in 2002.' On a regional scale, Colombia contributed nearly 35% of reported DHF cases in the Americas from 1996-2004, and almost 25% o f continental malaria transmission in 2003 alone. Approximately 23 million and 13 million Colombians live in areas o f endemic dengue and malaria transmission, respectively. Dengue and malaria continue to rise despite a wide variety o f interventions available in vector control and treatment. In terms o f vector control, although several interventions have been demonstrated their effectiveness in specific instances, their appropriateness and most effective implementation methods require adaptation to local ecological and social circumstances. For example, because only a few water-holding containers produce the majority o f dengue vectors (Aedes aegypti) and the types o f vector-producing containers vary across cities; effective control strategies must first identify the most important class o f containers at the local level. Similarly, because important malaria vectors have different biting and resting behaviors, vector control requires first determining the species o fAnopheles mosquito responsible for local transmission in order to decide among alternative strategies such as distribution o f impregnated bed-nets, indoor residual spraying, or modification o f a periurban development project. Other intervention strategies, such as active case finding and treatment or selective vector breeding site control in response to early warning o f dengue or malaria epidemics, have not been sufficiently evaluated. A universally proven intervention, prompt diagnosis and treatment o f malaria infections, is often impeded because geographic barriers and armed conflict limit surveillance as well as access to diagnosis and treatment. Global warming influences dengue and malaria morbidity in several ways. Dengue and malaria virus and parasites reproduce almost exclusively inhumans, and are transmitted via mosquitoes. Neither dengue virus nor malaria parasites are able to mature when ambient temperature is below 18-20 "C. Climate influence dengue and malaria transmission dynamics through three main processes: Behavior o f vectors, such as proliferation and feeding frequency. Climate affects mosquitoes' lifespan, biting habits, digestion rate (which alters the time require for the virus/parasites to enter in the mosquitoes system), larval development rate and habitat formation; o Development rate o f pathogens (inside vectors). Data indicates that a two degrees temperature increment (from 24°C to 26OC) more than double the number o f infectious mosquitoes (those with mature dengue virus or malaria parasites) bitinghumans. l9INTEGRATED DENGUEAND MALARIA SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL SYSTEM, COLOMBIA, INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE SALUD DE COLOMBIA MINISTER10 DE LA PROTECCIONSOCIAL, HanshPadmanabha and Salua Osono Mrad January 2006 32 0 Geographical distribution o f vectors, or expansion into previously vector free territories. In the particular case o f Colombia temperature increase o f two degrees expands the population living in vector prone areas by up to 8 million people, including those living inmountain regions never before exposed to malariaand/or dengue. These new dynamics will require additional resources to meet the resulting higher level o f impacts over an already financially stressed health system. Administratively, the Colombian health sector has responded to the need for timely, locally adapted interventions through the advent o f Basic Action Plans (BAPs), which grant autonomy to municipal and state health authorities in the planning and administration o f public funds for vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, other health sector reforms, such as the decentralization o f a unified, vertically oriented vector control program, have resulted in massive staff reductions and a decrease in capacity building and supervision at the local level, thereby debilitating decision making and surveillance o f vector-borne diseases (Kroeger et al. 2002). Thus, BAPs have not been adequately exploited. Deficiencies in local intersectoral partnerships and information flow within the health sector itself have further compromised the viability and sustainability o f interventions. However, one promising aspect o f health sector reform i s the transfer o f the National System o f Public Health Surveillance (SIVIGILA) from the Ministry of Health (MoH) to the National Institute o f Health o f Colombia (INS) as o f 2004. The expectation i s that I N S expertise in vector-borne diseases can provide the technical capacities to develop effective disease surveillance and control strategies, while simultaneously optimizing human resources and costs and facilitating efficient information flow to and from local health authorities. Accordingly, I N S will design, implement, and evaluate an Integrated Malaria and Dengue Surveillance and Control System (IMDSCS) to be operated by INS, in order to reduce infection from both diseases through the execution o f timely public health interventions in populations at risk for transmission. Inparticular, INS will design a surveillance system for each disease and develop the operational capacities to regularly evaluate the risk o f transmission and determine the most effective local intervention strategies. The IMDSCS will be integrated into state and municipal operational action plans in order to assure the funding and intersectoral collaborations necessary for implementation o f interventions. Figure 8: Periodic, multi-annual rises in malaria incidence in Colombia AffiO Figure 8 shows the number of cases per year and in grey bars are the El Nifio years. (Bouma 1997) 33 GOALSAND OBJECTIVES Project Aim. To design and implement an Integrated Malaria and Dengue Surveillance and Control System in 24 pilot municipalities (12 for each disease) that addresses the new dynamics o f transmission and exposure caused by climate change and over five years reduce morbidity by 30% within the pilot areas. Specific Aims of the IMDSCS. (1) To design an integrated dengue and malaria surveillance that incorporates the ecological and sociodemographic components o f dengue and malaria transmission in order to regularly evaluate the spatiotemporal risk o f infection in the pilot areas and develop locally adapted dengue and malaria surveillance and control strategies. (2) To develop the local operational capacities to systematically recollect, manage and convey climatic, entomological, sociodemographic, and epidemiological data necessary to evaluate transmission risk. (3) To develop Operational Action Plans (POAs-Spanish acronym) for each disease for each pilot municipality and establish the budget and intersectoral partnerships necessary to carry out POAs. (4) To implement the IDMSCS on a routine basis. (5) To evaluate the IDMSCS, taking into account sustainability and cost effectiveness in the reduction o f morbi-mortality o f dengue and malaria infection. INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSESAND PROJECTACTIVITY SUMMARY The following table summarizes the institutional weaknesses. It i s important to mention that it i s not the project's intention nor i s it feasible to resolve the failings o f the Colombian health system, but rather to plan IDMSCS activities so that they address these weaknesses in the pilot municipalities adequately enough so as to achieve the desired reduction inthe risk o f dengue and malaria transmission. Many o f the challenges in the health sector are being addressed by the government through other projects or policy changes (for example, the ongoing reform o f Law 100) that require a large political commitment and are beyond the scope o f this project. In addition, it is important to consider that the weaknesses identified may vary within pilot municipalities. Some municipalities share these weaknesses with considerable variation within the 1019 municipalities. Therefore, IDMSCS activities must be adapted to each pilot municipality. The results o f the IDMSCS implementation in the 24 pilot municipalities selected will allow us to expand the system nationwide upon completion o f the NAP. In particular, many o f the modeling efforts, time-series analysis o f cases, monitoring o f susceptible populations, and surveillance o f population movement will necessarily be carried out on a nationwide basis because the transmission dynamics in areas not selected for the JNAP necessarily influence the dynamics in the pilot municipalities. Furthermore, the institutional challenges overcome in pilot municipalities will serve as a model for IDMSCS implementation throughout the country. 34 Weakness Malaria and dengue activities Decentralization o f formerly vertically Optimization o f economic and material resources through the oriented vector control programs has led determination o f the spatiotemporal risk o f transmission (though to staff reductions and restructuring o f modeling and local eco-epidemiological research) and state and municipal health authorities. In development o f rapid vectorial and epidemiological assessment addition to a lack o f continuity in strategies. suppression strategies, personnel available to monitor vector populations Training community members in malaria diagnosis and treatment. and evaluate interventions is often Development o f rapid entomological and epidemic assessment insufficient strategies to estimate vector populations will maximize the impacts o f routine surveillance activities. The formulation o f local strategies for Development o f transmission thresholds and sampling strategies to vector control is seldom based on formal evaluate vector populations in relation to the minimum number of assessment o f local vector populations vectors necessary to sustain an epidemic. and usually does not consider how human activity influences vector Construction o f POA working groups ineach pilot municipality in populations. order to plan epidemic and permanent control strategies based on results o f local eco-epidemiological research. Local research to determine how the intended use o f water in breeding containers is associated with the production of dengue vectors (see Figures 4 and 5). Tracking o f migration and susceptible populations in order tc understand effects o f human movement on introduction 01 pathogens into the pilot municipalities in order to determine the timing o f intervention strategies. There needs to be an improvement in The current reform process of the SIVIGILA which includes the data sharing among the regional research unified notification format and the identification anc centers that also perform diagnostic characterization o f data generation units will ensure the transfer0: services and INS. information from research centers and local health departments tc INS. Serological confirmation and virological surveillance by local research centers will be integrated inthe IDSCS. The Ministry o f Health has recently stipulated that all local health departments which subcontract laboratory confirmation o f dengue and malaria cases to local research centers must receive results before payment is issued. Monitoring and evaluation strategies An improved surveillance system will provide the information for vector control programs (vector necessary to evaluate control activities inboth pathologies. sampling, indices, and interpretation) must be reevaluated. Specifically for monitoring vector control programs for dengue, the project will establish a methodology to determinate A. aegypty container productivity, develop epidemiological indices for containers and evaluate reduction in transmission by determining the basic reproductive rate and entomological thresholds. Individual analysis o f malaria cases (age, sex, address, and neighborhood) will allow assessment and evaluation in focused 35 areas inthe vicinity o f cases. Although technical capacities for Improvement o f the analysis subsystem, including the SIVIGILA entomology and laboratory diagnosis are system, will improve collaboration between state and local health highly satisfactory in state health authorities. authorities, this is not necessarily the case at the municipal level. There is POA working groups in the pilot municipalities will be composed often little collaboration between the of both state and municipal health authorities. state entomologist and vector control programs o f autonomous municipalities (cities>lOO,OOO residents). 0 The complex administrative structure Most project activities are aimed at improving and increasing for surveillance and control o f vector- municipal and state institutional capacities: borne diseases at the municipal and state levels, combined with an uneven pace o f The actions stipulated by P O A working groups will respond not implementation o f health sector reforms, only to local ecological conditions but also to the local leads to a wide variability o f institutional institutional environment, available personnel, required training, capacities across states and etc. municipalities. The IDMSCS will ensure an even pace o f development in the information, analysis, and intervention subsystems across pilot municipalities. The following activities will improve the interdisciplinary work 0 There is a lack o f interdisciplinary collaboration at the local level between between state and local levels in the formulation o f BAPs: state and municipal health authorities in Dengue and malaria worlung groups to create long-term and the formulation o f Basic Municipal epidemic POAs will consist o f members with entomological, Action Plans (BAPs), insecticide and epidemiological, diagnostic, and clinical expertise, who in turn drug acquisition plans, and surveillance will thoroughly analyze the results o f models and local eco- activities. These plans do not necessarily epidemiological research together with I N S researchers. respond to operational research on local transmission dynamics. IDMSCS research activities to determine the spatiotemporal risk o f transmission will provide the raw material for P O A working groups. The improvement o f the analysis subsystem, the alerts generated 0 At the national level, the criteria for allocation o f state and municipal funds, by viral and susceptibility monitoring (dengue), and the seasonal and transmission levels o f the previous alerts generated by autoregressive and climatic modeling will year, need to be reevaluated, due to the improve the criteria for resource allocations across states and unique dynamics o f dengue and malaria municipalities nationwide. transmission. I Scaling up the IDMSCS nationwide after the INAP is complete and working with the Ministry o f Planning will allow IDMSCS results to be applied inthe national planning o f P A B budgets. SUMMARYAND CONCLUSIONS The National Institute o f Health, INS, on behalf of the GOC, and under the leadership o f the Ministry o f Social Protection has developed a comprehensive and integrated approach to fight dengue and malaria. These mosquito borne diseases have recently reemerge as significant public health burdens in Colombia, are climate driven, and are expected to spread to new areas and intensify the hardship they impose on poor and marginalized populations as consequence o f global warming. The government strategy, supported by GEF, i s to design and implement an 36 Integrated Dengue and Malaria Surveillance and Control System, supported by an effective early warning system. The NAP project will support the efforts o f the I N S through: Facilitating the flow o f scientific climate and climate change related knowledge to generate climate information useful for public health, vector borne diseases control, decision making; Providing current scientific knowledge and up to date lessons learned from public health delivery experiences with dengue and malaria worldwide; Strengthening I N S capabilities to design the comprehensive and integrated surveillance and control strategy in the selected pilot areas. Local experiences and recent applied research in the selected sites will guide the design o f multiple dimension surveillance schemes and the initial selection o f control options. It i s expected that control options will evolve as experience and knowledge are gained through the implementation o f the project; Facilitating inter-institutional coordination and effective cooperation through institutional capacity buildingo f all participating stakeholders; Creating a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation strategy to measure progress towards achieving the 30% morbidity reduction target, as well as closely monitor implementation advances ineach subcomponent; Finally, INAP will provide resource to engage a selected group o f scientists and practitioners, with worldwide experience, to assess progress, identify potential barriers andbringtheir experiences to provide alternatives for greater project effectiveness. Four blocks o f activities define the project, as indicated below. Project implementation has been scheduled for a five year period. The first year will be devoted to detailed project design (with considerable weight for initial applied research) and strengthening institutional capacities. Years two to five will focus on implementation o f the early warning system, as well as the implementation of the wider Integrated Dengue and Malaria Surveillance and Control System in the selected pilot areas. It i s important to highlight that resources allocated to strengthening institutional capabilities (overcoming weaknesses o f the existing health delivery system) represent nearly 43% o f the total project costs(indicated figures inmillion US$). Design (GEF US$ 0.23): Design of EWS for D&M; Forecasting tool development: Statistical and dynamic models, calibration and verification; Design o f multi-tier communication strategy; Selection o f pilot sites and Implementation o f Coordination Strategy Strengtheninginstitutionalcapabilities(GEFUS$0.36): Evaluation and strengthening o f local (municipal) health agencies; Strengthening the National Health (M&D) Surveillance System; Implementation of the DMEWS (GEF US$ 0.22): Implementation of control and communication strategy; DMEWS Implementation inthe PA; Knowledgemanagement and M&E system (GEF US$0.28): Modernization and update of the Health Information System; Monitoring and Evaluation system; Coordination and program administration. 37 Annex 2: M a j o r Related Projects Financed by the Bank and/or other Agencies Colombia: Integrated NationalAdaptation Project Sector Issue Project Name Status Implementing Process Special Program on Dominica, St. Lucia and Inpreparation Adaptation inthe St Vincent & the Caribbean: SPACC Grenadines: Implementation of Pilot Climate change Adaptation Measures in vulnerability of coastal coastal areas of areas, availability of Dominica, St Lucia and GCC impacts St. Vincent &the information Grenadines (GEF) Biodiversity, water ColombianNational Inpreparation resources management, Protected Areas land administration and Conservation Trust management Fund Natural disaster Colombia: Disaster Ongoing Moderately satisfactory. management Vulnerability Reduction FirstPhase APL Climate change The Caribbean: Ongoing IModerately satisfactory. vulnerability, Natural Mainstreaming disaster management, Adaptation to Climate Environmentalpolicies Change and institutions, (GEF) Vulnerability assessment and monitoring Renewable Energy, Colombia: Amoya Ongoing Climate Change Environmental Services vulnerability of high Project mountains ecosystems and of water resources Biodiversity, Natural Colombia: Conservation Ongoing Satisfactory Resources Management and sustainable use of Biodiversity inHigh Andes Region (GEF) Climate change Caribbean Planning for Closed Satisfactory vulnerability Adaptation to Global assessment, adaptation Climate Change Project planning and (GEF). relatedcapacity building. Adverse effects of Organization of Eastern Ongoing Satisfactory natural disasters Caribbean States (OECS) Emergency Recovery and Disaster Management Program (Dominica, Granada, St. Kitts & Nevis, 38 St. Lucia and St. Vincent) (IBRD). Restorationo f Guyana: ElNiiio Project Ongoing satisfactory agricultural capacity in (BW drought-stricken areas; vulnerability reduction measures; flood protection and restorationo f water supplies in low-lyingareas. MesoamericanBarrier Ongoing Satisfactory coastal zone Reef Project (GEF) management, institutional Rehabilitate hydraulic Saint Lucia Watershed Ongoing Satisfactory infrastructure of priority and Environmental watersheds; strengthen Management Project government capacity for (BW. environmenta1 management and flood preparedness Identification of impacts Netherlands Climate Firstphaseconcluded Satisfactory from accelerated sea Change Studies successfully level rise (ASLR) due to Assistance Program Secondphaseongoing climate change on the (Formerly NCCSAP, coastal and insular areas now NCAP) o f Colombia 13 countries participating. INVEMARexecuting agency inColombia Water resource Regional Andes: Design Inpreparation management, Climate and implementation of Change vulnerability, climate change Adaptation adaptation measures IWaste Water Treatment, Colombia: Rio Frio Ongoing Satisfactory Climate Change Carbon Offset Project Colombia: Jepirachi Ongoing Satisfactory Climate Change Carbon Offset Project Central America Inpreparation Management, Climate (Guatemala, El Change vulnerability, Salvador, Honduras, Adaptation Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama) and 39 National (Honduras) Projects to adapt to climate change impacts Relationshipto Other Bank Operations inColombia.The Bank has a significant environment portfolio o f climate related interventions, mostly related to environmental management. This includes: 0 Colombia National Protected Areas Conservation Trust Fund Project. The Project supports the consolidation o f the Colombian National Protected Areas System through the Protected Areas Conservation Trust Fund (FONCAP). The fbnd i s mandated to execute public-sector conservation policies related to the National Protected Areas System2'. FONCAP i s envisioned to contain a mixed composition o f endowment and sinkingfbnds.Total Project cost is US$42.4 million. The project i s expected to establish at least 2.8 million hectares o f core conservation areas in National Parks. NAP'S activities in the Las Hermosas Massif and the San Andres Archipelago will be taken under this context. 0 National Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Project - Phase 1 o f the National Disaster Vulnerability Reduction Program. The ten-year program aims to reduce the fiscal vulnerability o f the state to adverse natural events by strengthening national capacity to manage disaster risk and by reducing vulnerability in key municipalities that combine highexposure to disaster risk andhighcontributions to national income and productivity. J N A P ' s institutional activities in the San Andres Archipelago will be taken under this context. 0 The ongoing Programmatic Development Policv Loan for Sustainable Development, SusDevDPL complements these operations through overarching support for the government's National Development Plan to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, particularly Goal 7 (ensure environmental sustainability) and Goal 4 (reduce child mortality). CARs involved will be establishing the baseline and monitoring the development o f sustainable objectives, as per agreement with the Ministry o f Environment (MoE). NAP'Sinvolvement with regional CARs will be undertaken inthis context. More importantly, the next phase o f the DPL will be developed taken into account the climate change dimension o f development. *`I The proposedfund structure, describedin Annex 18, finds adequatesupport inColombianlegislation. 40 Annex 3: Results Framework and Monitoring Colombia: Integrated NationalAdaptation Project Results Framework PDO Project Outcome Indicators Use of Project Outcome Information The project development objective Strengthened I D E M capability Global use: As the first pilot project is to support Colombia's efforts to to produce and disseminate implementing specific adaptation define and implement pilot relevant climate change measures, the project results will adaptation measures and policy information through availability provide useful guidance for other options to meet the expected impacts o f continuous, accurate and countries. Lessons learned will be from climate change. reliable climate data for shared with practitioners on the adaptation initiatives o f process followed; tools used relevance to health, mountain technical processesto integrate ecosystems and insular areas. climate change information in Six pilot adaptation activities development issues and on have been implemented and challenges related to monitor monitored inpilot areas, successful adaptation measures. Guidelines to incorporate climate variability and climate Climate Change Policy: Results change designed and integrated from INAP and its lessons learned into regional development plans will serve as basis for the inLas Hermosas Massif development o f the national Adaptation pilots designed and adaptation policy to guide implemented with government interventions to corresponding monitoring mitigate, reduce, avoid and cope systems in place, for the with the negative impacts o f climate Colombian Caribbean insular change, and to identify potential areas including increased benefits and strategies to use those management performance o f conditions to further developmental key marine ecosystems and issues. reduced vulnerability in water supply to local communities, National Communications to the and UNFCCC. N C will report results Strengthened public health and lessons learned regarding program able to meet the climate change impacts inColombia, increased threats from dengue design and implementation o f and malaria induced by climate adaptation policies and change mainstreaming climate change issues inplanning processes 41 IntermediateOutcomes IntermediateOutcome Use of Intermediate Indicators OutcomeMonitoring Component 1Making climate, (i)Climateforecastmodels Periodic reports on climate change climate variability, and climate operative and providing climate variables available to decision change information available for variability information in selected makers adoption o f adaptation measures and hydrometeorological areas. Scenarios incorporated into national policies: (ii)Relevant climate information adaptation program supporting decisions inpilot areas Methodologies shared with (i)Relevant climate change implementing adaptation measures. international scientific global information generated to support (iii) climatechangescenarios Local community (national workshops; adaptation decisions inpilot areas available inpilot areas. UNFCC meetings; publication in (ii)Specific scenarios on climate Reliable and accurate data reporting scientific journals) change available for pilot areas. from 157 key upgraded stations. Create awareness on decision (iv) 10 professionals with MS in makers meteorology trained. Component2. Pilot adaptation (i) Detaileddescriptionofthe Possible use o f indicator insimilar measures in the Hermosas' Massif: water and carbon cycles in ecosystems along the Andes. high mountain moorlands. Improved understanding of the (ii) Oneagro-forest system Guidelines for planning and behavior o f high tropical moorlands. suitable for the Amoya managing protected areas inhigh Exploration o f suitable agroforestry watershed shows financial mountain regions. systems that are resilient to climate viability (income analysis,) change, promote environmental (iii)Guidelinesforincorporating services and are financially viable. GCC issues inplanning Plan on how best to scale up Mainstreaming climate change processes inlass Hermosas successful adaptation measures; issues inplanning processes in Massif. project areas. (iv) Agro-productive systems exhibiting reduced income variability in pilot areas in comparison to control areas. 42 Component 3. Adaptation measures (i)Designandimplementationof Cey input for planning scaling up inthe Caribbean insular areas: rain-fed communal water supply ictivities, after detailed economic systems; issessment, Three sustainable communal water supplypilots built and operating; (ii)Developmentofguidelinesand :riteria to be use inthe implementation o fpilot ietermination o f other protected Implementation o f a management management plans for atolls, ireas. plan for at least one remote atoll and keys and corals, accordingly keys that aim at preventing firther with established MPAs Ley input for revising and planning impoverishment of coral species; Guidelines (SF- MPA and narine resources management plans. CRSBeIF -MPA); Demarcationcompleted and Two Co-management agreements implemented for no take and no (iii) Demarcation plan for coral signed. entry zones intwo sectors o f the SF- conservation areas in SF-MPA MPA; Demarcation for no take zone and CRSBeIF-MPA Aidelines and criteria's to be inone sector ofthe CRSBeIF implemented. incorporated inlocal planning for lousing and hotel development, and Agreements with marine resource (iv) Definedand implement i l o t model for farming and cattle users for M P A enforcement leading participatory enforcement raising activities. to co-management. strategy for SF-MPA and CRSBeIF-MPA. Formulation o f a population policy Guidelines for housing development for the San Andres, Old Providence incorporating GCC effects. (v) Pilot guidelines designed for andSanta Catalina Archipelago incorporating CC inhousing in (SAI)-OPSC for national Population policies developed and S A I . consideration. action plan defined inS A I . (vi) Development of population Development o f information policies incorporating GCC protocols and report mechanisms to Center o f Data Administration effects inthe coastal zone for reach decision makers. (CDA) and related monitoring S A I . stations established, for the analysis and dissemination o f information for (vii)Operation and maintenance o f decision making related to climate ocean automatic monitoring change effects on islands.. stations system. Component 4. Responsesto the (i)ImplementationofIDMSCSin increased exposure to tropical 24 municipalities to attain a vector-borne diseasesinduced by 30% reduction inthe rate o f climate change; infection inthe intervened areas. (ii)Developreliableandaccurate Costs o f PAPSincorporated into the climate models to forecast Guide for the selection o f new pilot Basic attention plans. dengue and malaria outbreaks. sites to scale up the IMDSCS to cover major infected areas. Models developed and implemented for each pilot municipality with epidemic potentials, entomological threshold and climate thresholds determined. Verified entomological events generate immediate vector control response and intensifies epidemiological surveillance; 43 1 x p e >I 2 9 5 E N d z 1 d 4 d z 2 z = = h > v .- .I W .- W I ._ E .-C a Z I d z n > W u U Z Annex 4: DetailedProjectDescription Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject Component A - Making climate, climate variabilitv, and climate change information available for adoption of adaptation measures and policies. (Total: USS3.1 m: GEF USS 1.0 m). This component seeks to strengthen Colombia's capabilities to produce and disseminate climate infomationuseful for resource allocation and operational decision making insupport of adaptation measures and programs to climate change. The component will strengthen IDEAM's capabilities to provide climate analysis and forecasts for: (i) warnings for Malaria and Dengue; (ii)forecasts for farmers to improve planting decisions in high mountain ecosystems; (iii) climate scenarios to develop ecosystem management plans and adaptation options ininsular and coastal areas and iv) to create awareness among key stakeholders o f the impacts o f climate change and the actions required to cope with the expected consequences. The proposed adaptation measures seek to better document and make timely and reliable information available on climate, climate variability and climate change to decision makers for the adoption o f measures and policies. This will be accomplished through the following subcomponents: Subcomponent 1 - Improving IDEAM's technical and scientijic capacity to produce relevant climate change information, including timely and reliable forecasts tailored to decision- makers, This will be undertaken by (i)Modeling of climate and its variability; (ii) Documentation and preparation o f reports on the observed climate trends associated with GCC inColombia ;(iii) Dissemination o f knowledge on GCC. Subcomponent 2 - Development of local climate change scenarios to support selection of adaptation measures. The activity supported under this subcomponent includes the elaboration o f GCC scenarios. Subcomponent 3 Complement and strengthen existing climate data network of relevance to - climate change by supporting equipment renovation: 157 key climate stations containing highquality data for the period 1961-1990 were selected out of a total of 514 of IDEAM's existing network. Selected stations will be updated for monitoring GCC variables and integrated at a later stage into the reference network. Specific activities include: (i) Upgrade and calibrate equipment o f selected stations; (ii) Evaluation and processing information on temperature and rainfall. (iii)Verification and processing o f information generated by reference network. Subcomponent 4 - Strengthening scientijic and technical personnel to ensure long term sustainability of the project activities. This includes: (i) Professional training inmeteorology inorder to ensure the quality of monitoring, the processing of information, the analysis and interpretation. Component B - Design and implementation of an adaptation program that supports maintenance of environmental sewices in Las Hermosas Massif in the central range of the Andes (total cost $3.47 m, GEF funding $1.57 m). 49 This component supports the development of an adaptation to climate change program focused on the reduction o f the vulnerability o f the Massif of Las Hermosas (humidand bio- diverse highaltitude moorland inthe central range of the Andes) to climate change, as well as to contribute to the maintenance o f its environmental services. Subcomponent 1 - Mainstreaming GCC information into ecosystem planning and management in Las Hermosas Massif for maintenance of ecosystem services, including hydropower potential: This will be achieved through (i)Development, validation and implementation o f protocols to monitor climate change trends in high mountain ecosystems, including simulation o f CC impacts in Las Hermosas Massif. The proposed monitoring protocol includes hydrological, ecological and social variables; (ii) information analysis and modeling processes to determine the functioning o f Las Hermosas Massif, simulate its expected evolution under CC scenarios, and infer management implications. Subcomponent 2 - Reduction of adverse impacts on water regulation in the Amoya watershed of importancefor hydropower potential of the Amoya project. Under the project pilot measures will be implemented to protect the Andean highland water regulation system from climate change impacts (inter alias: reduced flows caused by increases in evaporation, unregulated discharges o f water flows). The measures considered include: (i) conservation of natural vegetation of riparian belts along side streams; (ii)conservation and recovery o f soil cover in the Amoya watershed to maintain capture o f horizontal precipitation, and carbon storage in the soil, through economically viable agro-forest system; and, (iii) adoption o f a management program to prevent and mitigate activities (including fires) that would hrther reduce water retention capability inthe soil. Subcomponent 3 - Land-use planning models incorporating GCC issues. This subcomponent will support the formulation o f guidelines to incorporate GCC issues in the municipal land use plans (as per Law 388). This will be accomplished through the following activities: (i)selection o f two municipalities willing to participate in the pilot; (ii) Identification o f key ecosystems and determination o f the expected impacts associated to GCC; (iii) Identification o f measures seeking to mitigate negative impacts; (iv) Disseminate the information produced and monitor its use in the elaboration o f land use plans; and, (v) based on the experience attained define guidelines for the incorporation o f GCC issues in land use planning. Subcomponent 4 - Improvement of productive agro-ecosystems in Las Hermosas Mass$ This subcomponent aims at mitigating the impact o f extensive cattle grazing and intensive potato crop systems, including preventing the expansion o f these economic activities into higher altitudes due to the warming o f the Paramo. This will be achieved through pilot interventions in extensive cattle raising areas (with associated grass burning) which would be changed to environmentally friendly cattle raising practices, grass cultivation, and ecosystem restoration. Capacity building and knowledge exchange processes will be ensured in order to disseminate results, and formulation o f replication strategy in other areas with similar environment. Reduction of socioeconomic vulnerability of population through the introduction of enhanced productive systems resilient to GCC impacts. Agricultural practices considered for this component include those that contribute to the adaptive capacity of the ecosystem and are social and economically important for the region. Activities supported under this component include: (i) selection o f pilot sites based on clearly defined ecological and social criteria, including poverty indexes and CV- GCC effects on water scarcity in Las Hermosas Massif; (ii) Selection o f agro-productive systems and practices 50 responsive to climate predictions (CV - GCC). (iii) Design of incentives for the adoption o f selected productive systems by local communities; (iv) implementation of selected productive system and practices in a pilot area, including the corresponding monitoring system; (v) Strengthening local capacity to adopt and expand pilot activities, and, (vi) Implementation o f pilot activities to reduce climate related vulnerability to water variability inpilot areas. Component C - Design and adoption of an adaptation program in the Colombian Caribbean Insular Areas (Total US$2.9m; GEF US$I.3m). This component supports the development of an adaptation to climate change program focused on the reduction o f the vulnerability o f the Colombian Caribbean Insular Areas to climate change, as well as to contribute to the maintenance o f its environmental services. This component will be carried out in: Archipelagoes of San Andres, Old Providence and Santa Catalina as well as o f the Corales del Rosario, San Bernardo, and Isla Fuerte. Subcomponent I - Mainstreaming GCC information into key sectors for decision-making processes, including those related with climate change, in Colombian Caribbean Insular Areas (INVEMAR): Development of information systems: Monitoring of atmospheric- oceanographic variables, and o f marine ecosystems, in order to evaluate the impact o f GCC. This will be achieved through the following activities: (i) Acquisition, installation, training, operation and maintenance o f air-ocean automatic monitoring stations and the creation o f a Center o f Data Administration; (ii)Monitoring o f coral reefs (protocol SIMAC / CARICOMP); (iii) information analysis and modeling processes to determine the functioning o f Colombian Caribbean Insular Areas and management implications with emphasis on explore the uses and identify limits o f knowledge to manage risk and opportunities related with sea-level rise. Augment the focus on the short term to reduce the key scientific uncertainty to support the revision of adaptation and mitigation practices. Develop resources based on science, to help in the decision making process. Improve the strategies to sustain interactions with the "partners" that consider the necessity of information from the "user" perspective. In that sense will develop products that facilitate the economical analysis, decision making under conditions o f complexity and uncertainty as well as to the integration and application o f information o f the natural and social sciences in context o f specific decisions. Subcomponent 2 Integrated water resources management. Enhance the availability of fresh - water in the Caribbean insular areas (Sun Andres Island), as well as contribute to its more efficient use (Coralina); To reduce threats from climate change, the adaptation measures inthe key area o f fresh water are: (i) Improving water sources by harvesting rainwater and recovering wastewater: Design o f rainwater harvesting and o f wastewater recovering system (SMIA), selection o f 3 pilot areas, implementation o f SMIA, technical monitoring o f SMIA efficiency, training and capacity building o f San Andres community in SMIA operation; (ii) System for sustainable management o f aquifer reserves in San Andres. This adaptation measure seeks to improve Coralina's ability to monitor the environmental behavior o f water resources in San Andres. This adaptation measure comprises the preparation o f an updated ground water management plan for San Andres Island, and the development o f technical tools for monitoring the aquifer. In Particular, the development of the groundwater management plan requires the implementation o f an information system that includes: (i) the periodic description o f the aquifers status; (ii) modeling modules that simulate possible future aquifers conditions based 51 on water extraction decisions; (iii) impact assessment modules to estimate the financial and economic consequences of different extraction options; and (iv) expanding the existing monitoring system o f observation wells. Subcomponent 3 - Marine Protected Areas. Support the implementation of the marine protected areas system in the Seaflower reserve as well as in the CRSBeIF in order to contribute to the conservation of marine ecosystems; The three adaptation measures in the key area of the MPA Archipelago San Andres, Old Providence y Santa Catalina carried out by Coralina are: (i)Demarcating coral conservation zones and significant coastal and marine ecosystems; (ii)Establishing marine and coastal resources guidelines and implementation o f management actions for remote cays and banks and (iii)Design and implement an enforcement strategy to prevent marine ecosystem degradation in the MPA. The enforcement strategy would coordinate with other agencies working inthe Seaflower reserve, and seek active participation of the community. The cross cutting activities will focus on: Monitoring - monitoring coral health and socioeconomic impacts o f conservation measures; and Capacity building - training stakeholders to help with monitoring and adaptation measures. These measures will mitigate the effects of climate change on M P A ecosystems by demarcating conservation zones to protect coral reefs and associated ecosystems; developing and implementing guidelines and specific management plans that will be a tool for inter-institutional management and decision making, that targets climate change effects in remote areas and that i s sensitive to the potential impacts from increasing water temperatures and sea-level rise; and training a wide range o f stakeholders and community members to support and play an active role inadaptationand monitoring. The GEFrWB project "Colombia Caribbean Archipelago Biosphere Reserve: Regional Marine Protected Area System" (GEF Grant PO23881) established, through a participatory process with the local marine resource users, zoning o f 65,000 km2 o f the Seaflower Biosphere Reserve. In greater detailed the MPA includes no-take and no-entry zones to preserve coral reefs and essential habitats. Special artisan fishing areas were legally defined to protect the rights o f traditional artisan fishermen and ensure sustainable fisheries. The goals achieved in this operation provides a useful base upon which improved management could be launch. INVEMAR will support the implementation o f the MPA system in the CRSBeIF in order to contribute to the conservation o f the marine ecosystems. This will be achieved through the following activities: (i) formulation o f a managementplan agreed with local communities and congruent other local plans; i.e. land use plans, coastal management plans, marine reserve preservation action plan; (ii) Border marking for highly protected marine ecosystems within marine protected areas; (iii)Identification o f thermo-tolerance o f the coral populations and coral reef interconnectivity; (iv) Socio-economic monitoring on the no take or intangibles areas; (v) Capacity development on the institutions on GCC. Subcomponent 4 - Integrated Coastal Management. Reduce the vulnerability of economic activities, infrastructure, population living close to the coast, and beaches in theface of GCC impacts. (Coralina) The four adaptation pilot measures in the key area o f Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) are: (i)Development o f guidelines to incorporate expected future climate conditions for housing design suitable to SAI-OPSC, including use o f alternative energy; (ii)Changing traditional cattle raising and agricultural practices to reduce soil erosion and impacts on the coastal and marine environment; (iii) Development o f population policies and formulation o f 52 an action plan and guidelines to prepare for CC effects in the coastal zone; (iv) Implementation o f a coastal erosion monitoring system as a tool for environmental management. The cross cutting issues will focus on: Monitoring - regular and special monitoring o f coastal erosion, ecosystems, and beaches, including beach profiling; and Capacity building - advising and training government institutions, the private sector, and the general public on methods to improve and adapt existing plans to counteract and reduce climate change effects. These measures will mitigate impacts o f climate change by carrying out and evaluating the effectiveness o f pilot alternatives to reduce long-term impacts o f climate change in the coastal zone, both ecologically and socio-economically; by producing policies and feasible management actions to improve population management in the areas most vulnerable to climate change, taking a precautionary approach to prepare coastal communities to withstand climate change; by gathering regular information on how the coastline and key ecosystems are changing and adapting; and by training and working with public and private organizations and stakeholders to update coastal management plans and spread awareness. Comvonent D - Resvonses to the increased exvosure to trovical vector-borne diseases {malaria and dengue) induced bv climate channe (Total US$4.7m; GEF US$ 1.0 m). Overall objective: To design and implement an Integrated Malaria and Dengue Surveillance and Control System in 24 pilot municipalities (12 for each disease) that addresses the new dynamics o f transmission and exposure caused by climate change and over five reduce morbidity by 30% within the pilot areas. Specific objectives of the IMDSCS. (1) To design an integrated dengue and malaria surveillance that incorporates the ecological and sociodemographic components o f dengue and malaria transmission in order to regularly evaluate the spatiotemporal risk o f infection in the pilot areas and develop locally adapted dengue and malaria surveillance and control strategies. (2) To develop the local operational capacities to systematically recollect, manage and convey climatic, entomological, sociodemographic, and epidemiological data necessary to evaluate transmission risk. (3) To develop Operational Action Plans (POAs-Spanish acronym) for each disease for each pilot municipality and establish the budget and intersectoral partnerships necessary to carry out POAs. (4) To implement the IDMSCS on a routine basis. (5) To evaluate the IDMSCS, taking into account sustainability and cost effectiveness inthe reduction o f morbi-mortalityo f dengue and malaria infection. Based in the Colombian National Institute o f Health (INS), the early warning system for dengue and malaria will employ the climate forecasting and surveillance capabilities o f the Meteorological, Hydrological and Environmental Studies Institute (IDEAM) and integrate data collected by municipal and state health authorities to determine the local risk o f transmission and implement preventative actions before epidemics begin. Inorder to achieve this objective three major components have been proposed: (a) design o f the DMEWS; (b) strengtheninginstitutional capacity; (c) implementation and operation; and (d) optimization o f the monitoring and evaluation systems. Subcomponent 1:Design of the DMEWS.A conceptual framework o f the DMEWS has been proposed and subjected to scrutiny by a wide range o f climate and health experts. This framework involves the definition and design o f tools, transmission thresholds and risk factors, information flows, procedures, roles and responsibilities. Specific activities will include: 53 --- DMEWS design (information flows, procedures, roles and responsibilities). Tools development (GIS, statistical and dynamic descriptive and forecasting models). Designo f a multi-tier communication strategy. In the construction of the DMEWS, the INAP assumes the challenge of developing a framework that permits the continuous evaluation of the local risk o f dengue and malaria transmission in the face of GCC and the determination o f the most appropriate preventative actions to take in order to prevent epidemics before they begin. Because no model i s perfect, the DMEWS will employ various, complementary modeling strategies in order to maximize both the precision o f model predictions and their generality in space and time. Inparticular, the models will allow the DMEWS to provide of local alerts o f different magnitudes at different time scales, including multi-year, annual, seasonal, and monthly. Although many scenarios highlight an imminent 2°C increase in global temperatures over the next 50 years, preparing for the public health consequences o f climate change requires understanding the local effects o f climate over time scales short enough to forecast and prevent epidemics. Moreover, in addition to temperature increases, climate change may be locally experienced through changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, relative humidity, barometric pressure and solar radiation, among others. As such, the DMEWS will develop statistical models correlating the transmission o f dengue and malaria in the pilot areas with numerous climatic variables reported on a weekly basis, both independently and in interaction with one another. These models will permit the DMEWS to continuously monitor the effects o f a changing climate on malaria and dengue. The development of these global and local forecasting skills in the initial phase of the INAP will permit the DMEWS to estimate a lead-time o f no less than one to six months in preventing the concomitant effects of climate variability and the warm and cold events o f ENS0phenomena. From an operational standpoint, however, climatic correlations generated by statistical models may be o f limited utility, as they are difficult to extrapolate in space or time. Moreover, they do not permit the integration o f climatic surveillance with disease control activities. In order to reduce the vulnerability o f populations, it i s necessary to understand how climate interacts with the elements o f the disease transmission systems for which there are proven, effective interventions, particularly in the areas o f mosquito control and treatment. Accordingly, the DMEWS will make use o f dynamic models that employ the established biological mechanisms o f the dengue and malaria transmission cycles to integrate temperature and rainfall with demographic, epidemiological and entomological data routinely collected in the pilot areas. The disadvantage o f these models i s that because o f the large number of parameters that need to be estimated, they may sacrifice the precision of the correlation between climate and transmission. Nevertheless, during the initial stages o f the INAP, investigation will be carried out to ensure the accuracy o f parameter estimates. Once parameterized, these dynamic transmission models will permit the DMEWS to: (1) provide quantitative goals for vector control and treatment adapted to the specific ecological circumstances o f each pilot area, (2) determine which are the most important interventions and when they need to be implemented in each pilot area, and (3) allow us to pose and answer "what if" questions for remote areas potentially vulnerable to climate change, for which data i s sparse. A communicational strategy must also be designed to ensure that the DMEWS alerts appropriately reach the target population at risk. Subcomponent 2: Strengthening institutional capacity. The proposed change from a reactive institutional organization to a proactive public health system requires the strengthening of 54 operational capacities and coordination amongst the participating actors, including the Ministry of Health, INS, local health secretaries, municipalities, community groups and the population at risk.The proposedactivities include: - Evaluation and Strengthening o f local (municipal) health systems (supporting the Entomological and Diagnostic Laboratories Network and identification of strategic partnerships at the local level) - Strengthening the National Health (M&D) Surveillance System (inter-agencies coordination, stakeholder participation, capacities in participating agencies, gap analysis and selection o f a strengthening strategy) The routine actions o f surveillance and control carried out by municipal and departmental health authorities are at the heart o f the DMEWS. During the INAP, the DMEWS will be implemented in approximately 12 pilot municipalities for malaria and 12 in the case o f dengue, already pre-selected based on climatic and epidemiological characteristics that permit the DMEWS to reduce the vulnerability o f populations to a wide range o f climate change scenarios. In conjunction with the National Entomology Network and the National Diagnostic Laboratory Network, present in all o f the departments participating in the INAP, I N S personnel will perform a complete diagnostic o f the capacities o f dengue and malaria control in each pilot municipality. The DMEWS will identify strategic partnerships with other local health and educational institutions that are essential for success in community- based interventions against mosquito-borne disease. In addition, operational research will be carried out in each municipality in order to empirically determine the most important vector municipality. surveillance and control strategies, given the unique ecological circumstances o f each pilot Based on the model simulations, local diagnostics o f surveillance and control capabilities and the operational research, the DMEWS will develop plans for preventative action specifically designed for each pilot municipality. These preventative actions will be integrated into the community vector control efforts already underway in a number o f local health departments by strengthening the coordination o f inter-institutional and inter-disciplinary actions, and improving and focusing the environmentally sound public health interventions. Personnel o f the I N S and the National Laboratory and Entomology Networks will thoroughly train municipal health personnel to ensure that modifications to entomological or epidemiological surveillance activities are efficiently carried out. Finally, the Ministry o f Health i s currently coordinating an initiative to update the Manuals o f Epidemic and Case Management for Vector-Borne Diseases, distributed to clinicians and epidemiologists throughout the nation. In pilot areas, INAP will integrate the plans for preventative action into the updated manuals. Subcomponent 3: Implementation and operation. Although preventative action plans will be implemented in the second year of the N A P , the complete DMEWS, with the modeling component validated and local operational capacities strengthened, will be fully implemented in all pilot municipalities during year three of the project. Our operational objective is to reduce the cumulative incidence o f malaria and dengue in 2007-2010 by 30% as compared to the four preceding years. Routine operation o f the DMEWS includes: -- Implementationo f DMEWS surveillance activities Implementation o f local Preventative Action Plans (PAPS) and communication strategies 55 Operation o f the DMEWS will entail the continuous assimilation o f climatic, demographic, entomological, and serological/parasite data collected routinely in the pilot municipalities into the various DMEWS models in order to determine the risk of transmission. Models will be continuously validated against reported cases and readjusted so as to optimize the data collected by local health authorities and the precision of predictions. Improvement o f national capabilities in global forecasting, regional forecasting and understanding local transmission dynamics will facilitate the implementation of the control activities before epidemics begin, instead o f the current capacities, which are limited to detecting the start o f epidemics. As alerts are generated, the plans for preventative actions and communication strategies will be implemented in the pilot municipalities. The INAP will designate and train a healtldcommunication professional in each pilot municipality to coordinate with local institutions and community groups and thereby ensure the proper implementation o f the control activities. Subcomponent 4: Monitoring, evaluation and system readjustment. The following activities related to modernization and evaluation o f the health information system will be carried out simultaneously with the implementation o f the DMEWS: - Modernization and update o f the Health Information System (incorporation o f a GIS support system for the health sector with the DMEWS integrated, redefinition o f data - requirements for the national health database, design o f scale up program) Project evaluation and monitoring system (morbidity and mortality) For its construction and ultimately its proper functioning, the DMEWS requires a systematic and reliable notification system o f dengue and malaria cases and the other variables important for determining transmission dynamics, as determined in the INAP. Model predictions need to be validated against historical patterns o f cases [inthe same spatial-temporal units] if they are going to be employed for decision-making on the allocation o f public health resources. In order to achieve this goal, the DMEWS will rely heavily on a project already underway inthe INS, the improvement o f the National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SIVIGILA). Currently, SIVIGILA collectively reports all reported clinical cases o f 29 different ailments (including malaria and dengue) on a weekly basis. The current reform to the system will allow SIVIGILA to report the address and date o f onset o f symptoms o f each reported clinical illness, thereby facilitating the analysis o f epidemiological risk factors and the validation of transmission models. In the pilot areas o f the INAP, DMEWS will use the SIVIGILA system to regularly report the variables (epidemiological, entomological, demographic, climatic) necessary for determining the risk o f malaria and dengue transmission. Component E: Project management (Total $0.73 m GEF funding $0.53 m): This component will support the overall technical coordination o f Project Activities (including the implementation of a technical monitoring system) (component el) as well as the administrative and financial management o f the Project (component e2). It will include goods; consultancy services; travel and operational and incremental costs undertaken by the Project Management. Specifically this component will finance the project coordinator, the procurement specialist, other required personnel for the project management, and the project external audits. 56 Annex 5: ProjectCosts Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject GEF Total US$ million million 1.57 1.3 2.9 I 1 4.7 I 0.53 5.4 Total Project Costs 7.2 2.3 5.4 1491 Interest during construction Front-end Fee Total FinancingRequired 22 Note: Co-financing from the Gates Foundation in an amount o f US$1.2 million is expected. The approval of the funding request is pending, however these resources are complementary and not required inthe financing plan). 57 Annex 6: ImplementationArrangements Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject ImplementationPeriod: The Grant is expected to become effective in March, 2006 for a five year period, up to December 2011 (expected project completion date). General implementationarrangements: The GEF grant beneficiary (the Beneficiary) will be the Republic o f Colombia representedby the Agencia Presidencialpara la Accion Social y la Cooperacion Internacional (ACCION SOCIAL). The grant recipient (the Recipient) will be Conservation International Colombia (CI-Colombia) for the benefit o f the Beneficiary. The project will be executed by IDEAM, INVEMAR, Coralina, I N S and CI-Colombia. The administrative and financial management of the Project (component e2) will be carried out by C I - C ~ l o m b i aCI-Colombia successfully executed the PDF B resources, and has been ~ ~ . assessed to have sufficient experience and the adequate organizational capacity for the administrative and financial management o f the project. IDEAM will be in charge of the overall technical coordination of Project Activities, including the implementation of a technical monitoring system (component e1)). The executing agencies are: IDEAM (components (a), (b) and (el)), Coralina and INVEMAR (component c); Instituto Nacional de Salud (component d) and CI-Colombia (component e2). CI-Colombia will enter into a subsidiary agreement with the other executing agencies. The subsidiary agreement will include the financial and administrative obligations o f CI-Colombia, the obligations o f IDEAM as overall technical coordination of Project Activities, and the obligations of each executing agency. For activities related to the Amoya watershed, IDEAM will coordinate with ISAGEN. Technicalimplementationarrangements: 0 Steering Committee of INAP. The main responsibility of the Steering Committee (SC),24, will be to assure the attainment o f the projects objectives and targets. The SC will also provide guidance on the implementation o f INAP and take high level decision regarding the project's development, technical difficulties and management issues. The SC will approve the Annual Operating Plans (AOP) o f the project. Practitioners and scientists could be invited to participate in the SC meetings to provide technical support for decision-making processesregarding the project. IDEAM will carry out the overall technical coordination of the project activities. As such, IDEAM will be responsible for overall Project planning, coordination, implementation, supervision and overall technical monitoring and evaluation. IDEAMwill also be responsible for maintaining the Steering Committee o f the Project; guide executing agencies inthe AOP25 preparation process and submit AOP to the SC for approval and to CI-Colombia for Bank's approval. Progress reports will also be prepared by IDEAM integrating the results o f the ''CI-Colombia i s a recognized NGO with broad environmental experiencein high mountainsand insular ecosystems 24 The SC will be constituted by the following entities: representatives o f the Ministries o f the Environment; Social Protection and Energy; representatives o f the Executing Agencies and other public sector entities. 25 The AOP will include statement of specific objectives for the year, a description of the activities, expected outputs, monitoring indicators, detailed estimated budgets, a procurement plan, indicating the sources of financing in the budget. 58 monitoring and evaluation activities and setting out the measures recommended to ensure the efficient implementation o f the Project. CI-Colombia will carry out the administrative and financial management of the project. Specifically, CI-Colombia shall: i)issue an operational manual containing inter alia specific provisions on detailed arrangements for the carrying out of the project; ii)with the assistance o f and in agreement with the Executing Agencies, shall update the Procurement Plan and provide the AOP for Bank's approval; iii)carry out the approved AOP in accordance with its terms. For each component, an executing agency (see figure below) will be responsible for the technical execution o f the activities under the respective component. This will be done with the support o f project partners including national, regional and local governmental entities, (Ministry o f Social Protection, Ministry of Agriculture, National Park Unit, autonomous regional authorities (CARS); state and municipal health authorities, etc) and local and regional organizations (CI-Colombia; other NGOs, universities and associations). .............................................................................................................. ................................................................................................. ~ IDEAM CI-Colombia (Grant Recipient) (Overall Technical Coordination) , ~ , ~ GEFiWorld Bank Grant Republicof Colombia (Acci6n Social) (Beneficiary) (Administrative and FinancialManagement .......................................... ......................................................................................... Component coordinator: Each executing agency will assign a coordinator as part of the organizational structure o f the component. The coordinator will be responsible for the following activities: organizing the working groups o f the component, ensuring the participation of all the involved partners in the development o f the component; develop the AOP o f the component with the support o f the IDEAM; support CI-Colombia in the update process o f the Procurement Plan; develop the TORSo f the required consulting services and specifications for required equipment. Executing agencies: IDEAM is a national research institute which coordinates the Colombian Environmental Information System and which i s responsible for meteorology, hydrology, and related environmental studies. In this project IDEAMwill on the one handbe incharge o f the overall technical coordination o f Project Activities (including the implementation o f a technical monitoring system) and on the other hand be the executing agency for the Climate Scenarios and the High Mountain Ecosystems components. 59 INS is a governmental agency with administrative autonomy affiliated to the Colombian Health Ministry. It is responsible for the public health surveillance and control system. Specifically I N S implements and operates the processes of the National Surveillance System; supports the MH in developing regulations, technical guidelines and strategies for public health surveillance; supports public health surveillance actions in departments, municipalities and districts o f the country; coordinates, advices and supervises the National Laboratory Network. I N S will be in charge o f the Healthcomponent. INVEMAR is the national coastal and marine research institute, manages a reference laboratory in the areas o f their competency; and supports policy development in coastal and marine areas. It undertakes basic and applied research on conservation and sustainable use o f natural resources in Colombia's coastal and insular areas and oceanic ecosystems, and it i s responsible for GCC issues inmarine areas. INVEMAR will be responsible for relevant oceanic data gathering and for the continental insular and coastal component inthe project. Coralina. The Corporation for the Sustainable Development of the Archipelago of San Andres, Old Providence and Santa Catalina i s the CAR for this archipelago. Its mandate i s to manage the environment and natural resources so as to promote sustainable development in its jurisdiction. In this project Coralina will be responsible for the oceanic CaribbeanInsular Area component. CI-Colombia will be responsible of the administrative and financial management o f the Project. CI-Colombia's experience in conservation work in critical habitats will facilitate an efficient management o f the project. CI's technical advice on conservation issues will complement the skills o f the project team. variability, and climate change information available for IDEAM CVC; Cortolima; Parques Nacionales; IAVH; Ministerio de Agricultura; ONG`s Andes. c.1) Mainstreaming GGC INVEMAR Coralina, CARDIQUE, information into key sectors for UAESPNN (NPU) decision-making processes, in Colombian Caribbean Insular Areas c.2) Adaptation measures in INVEMAR INVEMAR; DIMAR Caribbean Insular Areas (Archipelagode Old Providence, San Bernardoe lsla Fuerte) c.3) Adaptation measures in INVEMAR I ICARDIQUE, NPU Caribbean' Insular (Archipielago de Rosario, San I Bernardoeisla Fuerte) d) Responses to the increased InstitutoNacionalde Salud I IMinisterio de la Proteccion 60 exposure to tropical vector- Social; Secretarias de Salud; borne diseases (malaria and EIA dengue) induced by climate change. el) overall technical IDEAM Project Coordinator and coordination of Project Executing Agencies Activities (including the implementation of a technical monitoring system) e2) Administrative and financial CI-Colombia. Executing Agencies (through the management Inter-Institutional Agreement) Component/Activity Executing Justification: Expertiseof Co-executing agencies institution(s) carrying out institutionfor project component iation availabll IDEAM, IDEAM is inchargeof the The other co-executing climate monitoring meteorological information igencies of the other network for the whole country and :omponents as consequentlyto managethe ieneficiaries of the meteorological stations.The -elevantinformation: project will support specific INVEMAR, INS, CVC, adjustmentsand the Cortolima, Coralina, expansionof the system in UPU. order to provide input data to the other project components, and to reduce GCC impact uncertainties. IDEAM IDEAM has developed UniversidadNacional uncertaintieswith regard modelsfor generatingCC has a research group on to GCC models scenarios, inthe framework meteorologythat could of reporting requirementsto provide technical the UNFCCC. assistance and capacity building. Universidad Nacional has collaborated in generatingscenariosand models for NC1 and PDF B. The other co-executing agencies of the other componentsas beneficiariesof the relevant information: INVEMAR, INS, CVC, Cortolima, Coralina, NPU. MRIwill continueto provide technical assistance with state of the art climate models. 2. Environmental serv es (including h iropower potential) in Las [errnosasMassif IDEAM IDEAM i s in charge of The Von Humboldt with regardto CCG levying scientific and Institute i s responsible impactson high technical information about for realizing basic and mountain ecosystems ecosystems, identified as part applied researchabout of the environmental the genetic resources of patrimony of the country, and national flora and fauna o f establishing the technical and for levying and 61 basis for the classification zreatingthe scientific and zoning of the use of the inventory for the whole national territory in order to country: plan and structure the The regional authorities territory. (CVC, Cortolima) as local environmental institutions will benefit from the levied data. 2.2 Enhancingadaptation cvc, CVC and Cortolima are the IDEAM will provide the capacity ofhigh elevationCortolima, regional environmental data gatheredfor the mountain ecosystems NPU authoritiesthat have as one of designingof the their responsibilities the measuresto the conservationof natural executing agencies: resources inthe territory they Field measurements on are in charge of, including GCC impacts on high high mountain ecosystems. ecosystems will be As the project also proposes carried out. activities in the national Municipalities will parks, the NPU is the receive from the responsible institution for that Cortolima, CVC area. indications regarding environmental restrictions for municipal territorial olannine. (POT) 2.3 Promoting Agro cvc, CVC and Cortolima are the Municipal agricultural forestry as a more Cortolima, regional environmental units (UMATAS) will resilient system to GCC CIA (NGO) authorities that have as one of provide general impactsthan traditional their responsibilities technical assistanceon agriculture promoting with productive agriculture inthe sector sustainableagriculture municipalities. At the practices. same the units will CIPAV is a local NGO with benefit from the lessons experiencein sustainable learnedwith the pilot agricultural practicesand measures. programs inthe region. 2.4 Managementof water cvc, CVC and Cortolima are the IDEAM will provide resources considering Cortolima regional environmental CVC, Cortolima with GCC impacts authorities that have as one of information on GCC their responsibilities the impacts on the water conservationand resources.Field management of the water measurementson resources inthe project area. expectedGCC impacts on highmountain ecosystems will be carried out by IDEAM. 3. Adaptation measuresi 3.1 Water resources Coralina Coralina is the regional Carious and NPU will management environmental authority benefit from the lessons responsiblefor the learnedof the pilot administration, conservation adaptation measures in and management o f the water order to replicate it on resources. their territory. 3.2 Marine protected Coralina, NPU, Coralina is the regional DIMAR is anational areas INVEMAR environmental authority institution in chargeof responsiblefor the the navigation routes. managementof the Coralina will coordinate "Seaflower" marine protected with DIMAR the area. NPU is the institution adjustmentof routesas responsiblefor the well as the markingof managementof marine :oral reefs in accordance protectedareas of "Corales with the identified GCC del Rosario". INVEMAR I s impactson marine areas. the institution responsibleto Departmentof San conduct scientific research in Andres and the tourist the marineareas of the sffice inside the country department will also receiveindications for protection of vulnerable marine areas. 3.3 IntegratedCoastal Coralina CORALINA has the mandate Departmentof San Management to direct the regional Andres will receive from environmentalplanning of the Coralina indications both land and sea resourcesin regardingenvironmental order to mitigate and restrictions for deactivatethe threats caused municipal territorial by inappropriateresource planning. (POT) management, including impactsof sea level rise. INVEMAR INVEMAR as the national IDEAM, Coralina and for monitoring of key institution incharge of the other national variables relatedto GCC researchof marine areas institutions will be on insular areas operates the monitoring beneficiaries of the data systems both with regardto collected by the the healthof the coral monitoring systems. systems and to climatic This information will be variables (sea temperature, a tool for the definition sea level rise, rainfall etc.). of appropriate adaptation CORALINA, as the measures and to update institution responsiblefor the GCC impact environmental management analysis. The monitoring inthe Seaflower Archipelago systemwill complement collect environmental data efforts inthe Caribbean and transfer to the network for monitoring information system. GCC impacts, particularly the GEF MACC project proposed by CANCOM. INS,IDEAM INS is agovernmentalwith Ministry of Social considering climatic administrative autonomy Protection will receive variables affiliated to the Colombian the results of the Health Ministry. I s adaptationmeasuresand responsible for the public will integrateas an health surveillance and official policy. control system, specifically Municipalities and for implement and operatethe Departments will work processesof the National closely with INS to SurveillanceSystem, related apply the Early Warning to their regular System. responsibilities and duties; support the MH in developing regulations, technical guidelines and strategiesfor public health surveillance; support the public healthsurveillance actions in departments, municipals and districts of the country, according their 63 regular responsibilities and duties; coordinate, advice and supervise the National LaboratoryNetwork and work as national referral laboratoriesinthe areas of their competency;analyze and releasepublic health information from the National Surveillance System and contribute to the Public Health SurveillanceTraining for healthworkers.. The NIH will be in charge of the Healthcomponent. IDEAMwill support the modelby providing climatic data as an input to the Early I Warning System. 4.2 Designing early IINS INSwill act as the link Ministry of Social betweenthe Early Warning Protectionwill make System and the preventive preventingmeasures activities. It has among its protocol mandatory. hnctions the standardization Municipalities will test of proceduresfor identifying together with INS the diseases, preventive measures effectivenessof the such as vector controls.. measures, and once approvedapply them. INS See 4.1 Ministryof Social national health Any modifications of the protection adopts and surveillance systemfor system to allow its links with makes the modifications preventive measures the Early Warning System mandatory. has to be carried out by the INS. 4. Overall technical IDEAM Project Coordinator and coordination of Project Executing Agencies Activities (including the implementation of a technical monitoring system) 5. Administrative and CI-Colombia CI-Colombia will be Executing Agencies responsible o f the (through the Inter- administrative and Institutional Agreement) financial component. CI- Colombia's experience in conservation work in critical habitats will facilitate an efficient management o f the project. CI's technical advice on conservation issues will complement the skills o f the project team. CI-Colombia successfully executed the PDF B resources, and has been assessed to have sufficient exDerience and 64 the adequate organizational capacity for the administrative and financial management of the project. Monitoring and Evaluation. CI-Colombia will issue a monitoring report on the financial and administrative performance o f the project. IDEAM will submit to the Bank annual project progress reports integrating the results o f the monitoring and evaluation activities and setting out the measures recommended to ensure the efficient implementation o f the Project. CI-Colombia will issue a monitoring report on the financial and administrative performance of the project. The Bank will conduct supervision missions to jointly review progress made against objectives and performance indicators. A Mid term review will be carried out not later than June 30, 2009. A depth review o f the progress o f the Project will be undertaken by IDEAM to evaluate the Project's implementation arrangements 65 Annex 7: FinancialManagementand DisbursementArrangements Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject FinancialManagement Country Issues. A Country Financial Accountability Assessment (CFAA) was delivered to the GOC inJune 2004. The critical issues affecting projects include the tight fiscal situation, budget and administrative processesthat can cause delays inimplementation, and the national chart of accounts which extends to sub-national levels o f government. At the project level, the Bank is currently engaged with the Government in strengthening project financial management by: (i)improving the operation of Special Accounts held in the Central Bank; (ii) decreasing the incentives to employ international cooperation agencies to manage project funds; and (iii)improving and streamlining the accounting and reporting requirements agreed in November 2002 between the Bank and the country's Accountant General and Auditor General's office. FM Assessment. A visit to Conservation International (CI) was carried out on August 02, 2004 as C I is the executor o f the US$ 270.000 PDF-B grant for INAP's project preparation. C I was also decided to be the grant recipient and funds administrator o f the INAP US$ 5.4 millionproject as mentioned inthe August 2005 meeting heldby the Directors Committee o f the project. The conclusion was that the FM arrangements inplace were adequate. An update o f this assessment was done on November 03,2005. There are no pendingissues. Organization/Staffing.The current Administrative and Financial Area of C I is composed of the Financial Manager, working with the accountant, and Administrative Manager. The Financial area manages all payments throughout the country in the centralized office in Bogota. C I will complement its financial team in order to support the implementation for this US$ 5.4 million project which i s the biggest one they have managed. The team has experience inmanaging grants, as an example it was mentioned the WB "Taller de Incentivos Econbmicos" and the actual PDF-B Grant for INAP's project. Accounting and Information Systems. Since February 2004, CI has implemented the Oracle Financial system that allows the users to define cost centers for each project. C I i s using this software for the accounting and reporting in project management. The current project management system has in its financial system the following integrated functions: budget, accounting and payables. Internal and external Audit. The report issued by the Statutory auditor (Independent accountant) as o f 12/31/04 included clean opinions. The audit report issued by the External auditors (Price Water House Coopers) as o f June 30, 2004 to C I Colombia and International has not been finalized yet, even though the recommendations for Colombia were presented in August 2005, and properly responded by CI Colombia in the same month. Most of the recommendations were related to the fact o f not having an Operational Manual for the Entity. This necessity is recognizedby C I and inDecember 2005, they visited HQof CI for adapting CI International Manual to Colombia requirements and actual processes o f C I Colombia. The Statutory Audit report mentioned that the entity has adopted the main internal control recommendations informed during the year. 66 FinancialManagementRisk.The FMrisk inthis project is considered to be Moderate. The Grant size is medium. CI-Colombia will be responsible for all project FM arrangements. CI- Colombia successfully executed the PDF B resources, and has been assessed to have sufficient experience and the adequate organizational capacity for the administrative and financial management o f the project which mitigates the Financial Management Risk, Funds Flow and Cash Management The Bank's hnds would be placed into a designated Special account, in a Commercial Bank. CI will open a Special Account in Colombian pesos or in US Dollars according to project convenience, determined by CI. In both cases, the recipient i s fully cognizant o f the exchange risk. Payments are actually done with checks in C I but for this project taking into account the national applicability o f the project, they should start to use electronical payments. C I will be responsible for the reconciliation o f the Special Account and general coordination o f disbursement matters. Disbursement applications for all components will require approval by CI. The internal mechanism to do the direct payments should be established and described inthe Operational Manual o f the project. Financialand ManagementReporting.The project will prepare Financial Interim Reports (FIRS)on a semester basis for internal and external purposes, and will be sent to the Bank within 45 days after the end o f each such period (Le., by August 15 and February 15). The form o f the FIR will be included in the Operational Manual. Finally, these financial reports will serve as a basis for the annual audit o f financial statements (see below). Disbursements. The Use of Statements of Expenditure SOEs for Grant withdrawal applications will be supported by all expenditures not requiring the Bank's prior review as will be established inthe grant agreement. All the disbursement procedures will be described indetail inthe Operational Manual. Retroactive financing will be allowed for eligible expenditures (expenses relating to project activities, procured in accordance with agreed project procurement procedures) incurred within 6 months prior to the Signing o f the Agreement. These can be claimed for reimbursement upon declaration o f grant effectiveness. These expenditures will be limited to US$ 500.000 (10 % o f the grant amount), but are expected to be much less than this amount. Financial Management Action Plan. At least one financial management supervision mission will be conducted each fiscal year, and a FM specialist will review the annual audit report. The pending FMactions that needto be carried out before board presentation are: An Operational Manual of the Project including the detailed description of the flow o f funds and the Audit TORS. 67 Annex 8: ProcurementArrangements Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject A. General Procurement for the proposed project would be carried out in accordance with the World Bank's "Guidelines: Procurement Under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits" dated May 2004; and "Guidelines: Selection and Employment o f Consultants by World Bank Borrowers" dated May 2004, and the provisions stipulated in the Legal Agreement. The various items under different expenditure categories are described in general below. For each contract to be financed by the Loadcredit, the different procurement methods or consultant selection methods, the need for pre-qualification, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time frame are agreed between the Borrower and the Bank in the Procurement Plan. The Procurement Plan will be updated at least annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. Procurementof Works:Works procured under this project would include: minor civil works such as remodeling, water and sewer capturing management works, construction and remodeling o f greenhouses, etc. The procurement will be done usingthe Bank's Standard BiddingDocuments (SBD) for all ICB and National SBD agreed with or satisfactory to the Bank. Procurement o f eligible civil works contracts, financed fully or partially by the Bank, and estimated to cost US$ 5,000,000 (equivalent) or above per contract, should be procured following International Competitive Bidding (ICB). Civil works contracts estimated to cost between US$ 5,000,000 and US$ 50,000 equivalent should be procured through National Competitive Bidding (NCB) procedures. Small civil works contracts estimated to cost less than US$ 50,000 equivalent per contract may be procured via shopping under lump-sum, fixed-price contracts awarded on the basis o f quotations obtained from at least three qualified domestic contractors in response to a written invitation. The invitation shall include a detailed description o f the works, including basic specifications, the required completion date, and a basic form o f agreement acceptable to the Bank, and relevant drawings, where applicable. The award shall be made to the contractor who offers the lowest price quotation for the required work, and who has the experience and resources to complete the contract successfully. Any contract not financed fully or partially under the loan may be procured following national law procedures based on the national law. Procurement of Goods: Goods procured under this project would include: SAT servers, computers, printers, software; other office equipment; specialized equipment, including photographic, detection, monitoring, data processing and transmitting equipment; telecommunications equipment, including GPS; satellite imagery; oceanographic, diving, field equipment and boat engines, amidst others. The procurement will be done using the Bank's SBD for all ICB and National SBD agreed with or satisfactory to the Bank. Goods and non-consulting services contracts estimated to cost US$ 250,000 and up will be procured under International Competitive Bidding procedures using Bank Standard Bidding Documents; contracts estimated to cost more than US$ 50,000 equivalent but less than US$ 250,000 equivalent may be procured usingNational Competitive Bidding(NCB) procedures. 68 The procurement o f goods, non-consulting services and works will be conducted using Bank's Standard Bidding Documents for all ICB and National Standard Bidding Documents agreed with the Bank. Under NCB, all the following special provisions agreed with the Colombian Government for procurement under Bank-financed loans, grants and credits will apply: (a) All bidders, irrespective o f whether they are foreigners or Colombians, will be treated equally and, particularly, no preference will be granted to any bidder or group o f bidders for bid evaluation purposes. Bidders shall be allowed to submit their bids by hand or through the post office or private mailing services. There shall not be any requirement for any bidder to show evidence o f the bidder'sregistrationinany public registry, chamber o f commerce or similar entity, whether in Colombia or elsewhere, or to appoint a representative domiciled in Colombia, unless and until such bidder i s awarded the corresponding contract. (b) Bids shall be opened in a public meeting to which bidders and their representatives shall be allowed to attend if they so wish. Date, time and place for the opening meetingshall be set forth in the bidding documents. Bid opening shall coincide with, or take place promptly after, the final date and time o f the period for bid submission stipulated in the biddingdocuments. (c) Each bid shall be evaluated and the corresponding contract awarded to the responsive bidder who meets appropriate technical and financial standards of capability and whose bid has been determined to be the lowest evaluated bid. Such determination shall be made exclusively on the basis o f the specifications, conditions and evaluation criteria stipulated inthe bidding documents. Ifany factor additional to the amount or amounts o f each bid i s to be considered in bid evaluation, such factor or factors and the quantified manner on which they will be applied for purposes o f determining the lowest evaluated bid shall be precisely stipulated inthe biddingdocuments. For purposes o f bid evaluation and comparison, the only bid amount or amounts to be used as a factor shall be the bid amount or amounts as quoted in the corresponding bid, including correction of arithmetic errors. (d) The provisions of paragraph 2.46 o f the Guidelines shall klly apply and, more specifically, bids shall not be disclosed to persons other than the persons officially charged with the task o f comparing andor evaluating the bids while they are performing their official duties, without the corresponding bidder's written authorization. Moreover, biddersshall not be required to provide such authorization as a conditionto be entitled to bid. This confidentiality requirement shall apply until the award o f contract i s notified to the successful bidder. Thereafter, confidentiality of the bids shall be limited to those bid portions for which confidentiality has been specifically requested by the bidder in question. Contracts for eligible goods and non-consulting services which cannot be grouped into larger biddingpackages and estimated to cost less than US$ 50,000 per contract may be procured usingshoppingproceduresbased on a sample request for quotations satisfactory to the Bank Goods, non-consultant services and works contracts can be procured under sole source procedures under the provisions stated inthe Guidelines and with Bank's prior no objection. Goods contracts can be procured under Limited International Biddingprocedures under the circumstances stated inthe corresponding clauses o f the Guidelines. 69 Selection of Consultants: Analytical studies; assessment, identification, monitoring and evaluation services; design, supervision and audit services; training, and other consulting services will be financed under this Loan. Short lists of consultants for services estimated to cost less than US$ 350,000 equivalent per contract may be composed entirely of national consultants in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 2.7 o f the Consultant Guidelines. I t i s expected that some NGOs, universities and research institutions may participate in the provision o f consultants services needed for this project. Individual consultants may be hired to provide advisory and other services on specialized fields o f expertise and also to assist in project implementation activities. Most contracts for firms are expected to be procured using Quality and Cost Based Selection Method (QCBS). Consultant assignments o f specific types as agreed previously with the Bank in the Procurement Plan may be procured with the use o f the following selection methods: (i)Quality Based Selection; (iii)Selection under a Fixed Budget; (iv) Least Cost Selection (v) Selection Based on Consultants' Qualifications -CQS--, for contracts estimated to cost below US$ 200,000 equivalent); and, exceptionally (vi) Single Source Selection - SSS-, under the circumstances explained inparagraph 3.9 o f the Consultants' Guidelines. Individuals. Individual consultants will be hired to provide technical advisory and project support services and selected inaccordance to Section V o f the Guidelines. Operating Costs: Operating costs will include reasonable expenditures to carry out the project such as travel and per diem costs for official project staff and personnel commissioned under the project; rentals; utilities; project vehicle fuel; communications (including Internet connectivity); maintenance o f facilities, equipment and vehicles; consumable materials and supplies and other project administration related costs, to be procured using the implementing agency's administrative procedures reviewed and acceptable to the Bank. The procurement procedures and SBDs to be usedfor eachprocurement method, as well as model contracts for works and goods procured, will be presented in the Implementation Manual. B. Assessmentof the agency's capacity to implementprocurement All procurement activities will be carried out under the supervision o f Conservation International. An assessment of the capacity o f Conservation International (CI), the proposed executing agency, to implement procurement actions for the project had been carried out by the World Bank in 2004, while it was implementing project preparation activities. The assessment reviewedCI's organizational structure and capacity for implementing the project. C I was not at the time o f the assessment staffed by personnel duly experienced in World Bank-funded procurement. Inthis project, each sub-beneficiary may be executing their own procurement processes, but they must be under CI's supervision. The assessment recommended the hiring o f at least a full-time procurement consultant experienced in Bank- funded procurement procedures, among other measures. The consultant will be based at CI's H Q in Bogota, and will clear procurement actions and provide advice to sub-beneficiaries. Such a consultant has been hired by CI, and, therefore, CI's procurement capacity has 70 improved. CI may decide to review ex ante any procurement-related action by a sub- beneficiary as a way to ensure quality at entry. The key issues and risks concerning procurement for implementation o f the project also stemmed from the dispersion of procurement activities amidst sub-beneficiaries o f the Grant, The corrective measures which have been agreed are: (i) C I and project sub-beneficiaries to receive procurement orientation by the Bank; (ii) a significantly lower threshold for shopping of civil works (complied with); (iii) Bank to review and clear the first procurement actions per procurement method before being executed (no matter ifthese contracts are or not subject to Bank's prior review), and (iv) the need to reinforce the CI with at least one more procurement staff with experience and exposure in Bank-funded procurement (complied with). The overall project risk for procurement is AVERAGE (after the hiringof the experienced consultant). C. ProcurementPlan The Borrower, at appraisal, developed a procurement plan for project implementation which provides the basis for the procurement methods. This plan has been agreed between the Borrower and the Project Team on [date] and i s available at [provide the ofice name and location]. It will also be available in the project's database and in the Bank's external website. The Procurement Plan will be updated inagreement with the Project Team annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. D. Frequencyof Procurement Supervision Inaddition to the prior review supervision to be carried out from Bank offices, the capacity assessment o f the Implementing Agency has recommended a first supervision after the 6 months o f project procurement implementation, and then annually, including visiting the field to carry out post review o f procurement actions. E. Detailsof the Procurement Arrangements InvolvingInternationalCompetition 1. Goods,Works, and Non ConsultingServices (a) List o f contract packages to be procured following ICB and direct contracting: 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ref. Contract Estimate Procurement P-Q Domestic Review Expected Comments No. (Description) d Method Preference by Bank Bid- cost (yes/no) (Prior / Post) Opening Date Computers, TBD ICB Yes Yes July 2006 Soh a r e and Accessories Oceanograp 212,000 LIB Yes Yes July 2006 hic Station 71 IEquipment I (b) ICB contracts estimated to cost above US$ 250,000 (goods and non-consulting services) and US$ 5,000,000 (works) per contract, respectively, and all direct contracting will be subject to prior review by the Bank. 2. ConsultingServices (a) List of consulting assignments with short-list o f international firms. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Ref.No. Descriptionof Estimated Selection Review Expected Comments Assignment cost Method by Bank Proposals (Prior / Submission Post) Date So far, no international shortlist i s envisioned for the first 18 months of project implementation. 72 Annex 9: Economic and financialanalysis Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INAP PROJECT 1. Scope o f analysis and summary o f results The INAP project demonstrates economic efficiency at three levels: (a) the pilot nature of the project provides efficiency because it saves learning cost, evaluates design assumptions, and permits adjustments o f the measures before its replication at a national level i s being replicated; (b) the preliminary economic analysis o f one adaptation measure in each component resulted in economic benefits higher than the economic costs o f implementing them; (c) the procurement procedures adopted by the project will favor minimum cost for significant acquisition o f goods and services. A preliminary economic analysis o f selected adaptation measures in each component was undertaken to illustrate the economic efficiency o f the type o f adaptation measures covered by the project. The analysis assessed direct economic benefits and costs associated with the adaptation measures applying standard economic methodology. The cost-benefit ratio was calculated for each measure resulting in higher economic benefits than cost in all cases. This analysis was undertaken with the available information at the formulation level that will be improved and validated at the implementationphase. The calculation indicates: (a) Caribbean Insular Area Component. The rainfall harvesting activity was selected for the economic analysis. As indicated below the adaptation measure shows the following indicators: Opportunity cost o f existing water supply: 10.18 US$/^^ Economic cost o f water supplied by the proposed system (per m3): 1.64 to 0,82 us$/m3 Net Present Value o f the total cost (30 years, 12%): US$4,993 BenefitKOst Ratio: 6.19 (b) High Mountain Ecosystem Component. The use o f climate information (forecasts) as inputs inthe process o f adaptation o f agricultural practices. The resulting economic indicators are: Opportunity cost (NPV (30 years, 12%)): US$0.19 million Learning Costs associated with proposedmeasure: US$0.1 million BenefitKOst Ratio: 1.93 0 Health Component. The designing and implementing o f an early warning system for malaria and dengue was selected for the economic analysis. This comprehensive adaptation measure shows the following indicators: Opportunity cost per avoided case: US$ 81 (malaria), U S $ 52 (dengue) Costs associated with proposed measure: US$ 3.5 million Total annual benefits (NPV (30 years, 12%)): US$ 12.9 million BenefitKOst Ratio: 3.7 73 2. Economic efficiency o f the pilot approach A pilot i s economically efficient because (i)it guides actions towards learning, experimenting, measuring and extracting lessons for further work. Appropriately managed it will also built institutional capacity and project ownership by those implementing the pilot; (ii)procedures, methodologies, approaches are tested at the pilot level for improvement, updating and evaluating before replicating nationally; (iii)mistakes can be identified and corrected before scaling up the project, reducing the initial learning cost of implementingnew approaches; and (iv) monitoringand evaluating are perceived as learning tools, key. The INAP project demonstrates economic efficiency at three levels: (a) the pilot nature of the project provides efficiency because it saves learning cost, evaluates design assumptions, and permits adjustments o f the measures before its replication at a national level is being replicated; (b) the preliminary economic analysis o f one adaptation measure in each component resulted in economic benefits higher than the economic costs o f implementing them; (c) the procurement procedures adopted by the project will favor minimum cost for significant acquisition o f goods and services. 3. Economic Analysis 0 CaribbeanInsular Area component: Water Supply Pilot For the Caribbean Insular Area component, the economic efficiency o f rainwater harvesting as an adaptation measure was evaluated. Benefits: The benefits are determined as the difference between the opportunity cost of desalted water and the cost of alternative provisions o f water supply. The main expected benefit resulting from this measure is the additional fresh water collected for the participating households. This additional water source will save the cost o f desalinizing the equivalent amount o f water from the San Andres existing water treatment plant. The aquifer i s subject of additional studies as its safe yield has been surpassed by water extraction. This source i s expected to be affected by saline intrusion caused by climate change sea-level rise. Therefore, the economic benefit o f the measure was evaluated by the opportunity cost o f water desalinization in the climate change scenario. The opportunity cost o f water desalinization and distribution has been estimated at 4 US$/m3, based on the actual cost o f desalinization incurred by the main water supplier o f San Andres, and after applying the price correction rates (shadow pricing) to correct market price distortions. The shadow price26 used was 2.65 corresponding to local water services. The high level o f the shadow price reflects that the water sector in San Andres Island i s highly subsidized. -To Cost: evaluate the efficiency o f the measure, the cost o f supplying the collected and recovered water to each household by the system was calculated. The total cost o f the proposed alternative - rain harvesting - includes: 1) the initial cost needed to adequate the house for the collection, storage and distribution o f the rainwater, and 2) the operation cost o f 26Cervini H., Bello C., Cubillos W., Castro R., Mocate K. "Estimacion de Precios Cuenta para Colombia", Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, Documento Interno de Trabajo, Departamento Nacional de Planeacion, 1990. 74 maintenance and energy for pumping out the water. The net presentvalue o f the total cost for a period o f 30 years amounts to 4.993 US$ per house. The estimated amount o f water that the system will collect and recover annually varies between 3,036 and 6,072 m3depending on the catchment's area o f the house. A collecting efficiency o f 80% and a re-use factor o f 30% were assumed. Therefore, the economic cost of water supplied by the proposed system per cubic meter ranges between 1.64 to 0.82 US$/m3as shown in the following table: Min Max Catchments area for each familyihouse mts' 50 100 Quantity of water stored per family per year (mts 3, 77.9 155.704 Total annual water available (mts 3) ** 101 202 I** Based on Total water available inthe evaluation period (30 years) I 3,036 1 6,072 I expectedannual precipitationfor San Andres with an increase of 10% due to climate change(1,946 mdyr) Shadow Cost of rainwater harvesting and wastewater Price in price recovering system per family US$ index Total Initial (roof arrangements, storage tank etc.) 1,382 0.80 1,105 annual operation (mainly energy) 545 0.79 43 1 NPV (12%, 30 yr) 4,993 Min Max Unit cost of additional water with rainwater harvesting system (US$/m3) 1.64 0.82 Cost BenefitAnalysis. Comparing the benefits and the cost of the rain harvesting proposed as adaptation measure, it i s concluded that the measure i s highly efficient, having a benefit- cost ratio o f 2.44. 0 High Mountain Ecosystem Component. Incorporating Climate in agricultural decisions. In Las Hermosas Massif the project proposes the use of climate information (forecasts) as inputs in the process of selection o f crop options and planting schedules. For economic assessment purposes the benefits are the difference between the expected revenue o f agriculture products with and without adaptation measure. I t i s expected that climate change impacts will reduce the crop productivity due to precipitation decrease given that the agricultural activity in the area does not have irrigation systems and therefore depends entirely on rainfall for its growth. The adaptation measure will modify the planned agricultural methods to better use available water sources. For economic assessmentpurposes this is estimated by assuming that the adaptation measure is equivalent to a displacement of the schedule to better accommodate for climate variability. Benefits. The project activity will maintain existing yields by improved farming scheduling, incorporating climate forecast. The economic benefits o f the proposed measure were valuated as the avoided costs o f productivity reduction due to the expected climate change impact on the agricultural yields in the area crops. The decrease in productivity was estimated using 75 FA0 Yield Response Factors27 for reduced water supplies occurring at different growth stages for three agricultural crops in the pilot area. The annual loss estimate in productivity was calculated usingproducer prices for the crops, corrected with the corresponding shadow price index. Total benefit o f the measure for the pilot area (100 ha) results in a net present value o f US$188,592 for the evaluation period o f 30 years. The following tables summarize the details o f the calculation: FA0 yield responsefactors Bean 1.15 0.20 1.10 0.75 - 0.20. - ;Maize I 1.25 I IPotato , * - 1.10 0.60 0.70 0.20 Corresponds to continuous deficit imgation, whereas Tr to TI,I,(/corresponds to restncted water supplies imposedat specific growth stages Source. Moutonnet P Yield response factors of field crops to deficit irrigation", International Atomic Energy Agency, Joint FAOiIAEA Division Economic Economic SHADOW PRICE INDEX Shadow Listof crops price index Price Price Col %/ton US%/ton Maize 0.90 1,100,507 500 Bean 0.90 2,212,660 1,006 Potato 0.91 441,449 203 Cost of LearninP .The economic assessment includes the expenditures required fro: (i) selection o f crop patterns; (ii)communication and dissemination o f climate forecast; (iii) "SeeFAO.1992.CROPWAT.Acomputerprogramforirrigationplanningandmanagement.Irrigationand Drainage Paper No. 46. Rome. FAO. 1993. C L I M W A T for CROPWAT. A climatic database for irrigation planning and management. Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 49. Rome. 76 educating farmers on the use o f climate forecasts; (iv) community capacity building; and (v) monitoring and evaluating system to maximize learning. As the design activities will benefit not only the pilot area but all similar agricultural areas, a correction factor o f 10% was applied to reflect the share attributable to the pilot area. The total economic cost o f the measure i s US$ 97,617 as shown inthe following table: Economic costs Shadow Col pesos priceindex Col pesos US% Selection o f ago-productive systems and practices responsive to climate predictions (CV - GCC). Professional Labor 117.000.000 1 117.000.000 53.182 Transport 28.000.000 0,75 2 1.ooo.ooo 9.545 Subtotal 145.000.000 138.000.000 62.725 After applying 10% of the share of the pilotarea 6.272 Implementationo f selected productive system and practices in a pilot area, including the corresponding monitoring system Professional Labor 200.957.500I 1 1 200.957.500 I 91.34L Subtotal 200.957.500 200.957.500 91.34~ TOTAL COSTS OF SPECIFIC ACTIVITIES 97,61' Cost Benefit Analysis. According with the above results, the measure is efficient as the benefits are almost twice the costs in approximately. The benefit cost ratio o f the measure i s 1.93. 0 HealthComponent. Preliminaryeconomic assessment of EWSfor D&M. The health component includes one comprehensive measure o f designing and implementing an early warning system for malaria and dengue; I t i s expected that increments in temperature and rainfall due to climate change will increase incidence o f these diseases, as mosquito vectors expands to otherwise cooler and dryer sites. Early warning system will use climatic variables to forecast malaria and dengue epidemics inorder to alert departments and municipalities for implementing preventive actions (hmigation, public awareness etc.). I t i s projected that the early warning system will reduce the morbidity o f both diseases inthe pilot areas by 30%. This effectiveness will be monitored inthe pilot phase. Benefits. Economic benefits related with the early warning system adaptation measure are, conservatively estimated, as the avoided cost o f (i)diagnosis and treatment; and (ii) o f productive losses due to sickness. To estimate these benefits, the costs o f an average case o f malaria and dengue were estimated. These costs include the productive days lost by the average infected person valuated at the minimumlegal salary, the cost o f the exams neededto diagnose the diseases and the cost o f the drugs for its treatment. The valuation o f the benefit i s conservative as it doesn't include all related costs generated by each disease due to information constraints. The economic benefits, valued as avoided costs o f preventing one 77 case o f malaria are US$ 81.0, and one case of dengue amounts to US$52.0, as shown in the following tables: Cost of an average case of Malaria Time lost per case of (labor days) Economic cost of productivity lost 4 Correction for incidence labour age 23.11 Price of drugs Treatment (US%per dosis (g) 9) Symptomatic treatment - Acetaminophen 20 0.18 0.82 2.98 Exam Laboratory Exams Diagnoses Exam (Igm 52.32 90%. Viral isolation 10%) 26.23 1 26.23 The total annual benefit o f the early warning system adaptation measure were estimated at US$ 1.4 million for malaria and US$ 0.15 million for dengue and the total benefit (US$ 12.9 millions) for the evaluation periodwas calculated by the net present value o f a 30 year annual flow, as shown the following table: Malaria Estimated annual cases in pilot areas 60,000 Reduction target 30% 78 -The Cost. early warning system will not create new preventive activities other than those already carried out by departments and municipalities to respond to an epidemic. It will advise the local government to implement them prior to the epidemic. Therefore, the total economic cost (US$ 3.5 million) o f implementing the early warning system adaptation measure includes: (i)design; (ii)institutional strengthening o f pilot municipalities; (iii) implementation costs; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation systems. A summary i s shown below: equipment II I 484,436,268 1 1 484,436,268 I 220,198 - Office inputs 3,700,000 0.79 I 2,923,000 1,329 Subtotal 2,066,662,268 1II 920,374 TOTALECONOMIC COST I11 3.513,872 79 Cost Benefit Analvsis. According to the results above, the measure is very efficient as the benefits are higher than the costs in approximately 4 times. The benefit cost ratio o f the measure i s 3.7. 0 Procurementarrangements. The project i s also economically efficient on the use o f its resources. The procurement plan o f works and goods includes open biddingprocedures that create incentives for allocating the project budget in an economically efficient way. Annex 8 details the biddingmodalities and procedures for the project in accordance with the World Bank's "Guidelines: Procurement Under IBRDLoans and IDA Credits". 80 Annex 10: SafeguardPolicy Issues Colombia: IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject ProjectLocation The project will implement on the ground actions, (subcomponents 3 and 4) in the Las Hermosas massif (high altitude ecosystems); insular areas in the Colombian Caribbean; and inselected areaswith endemic Dengue(mostly urban) andMalaria(mostly rural) exposure. In Las Hermosas, the project will focus on adaptation measures to conserve the Massifs ability to regulate water flows will contribute to the mitigation o f greenhouse gases from the power sector. The project aims at implementing long-lasting measures designed to protect this environmental service. Specific measures being considered include: (i) conservation o f natural vegetation o f riparian belts along side streams; (ii)conservation and recovery o f soil cover in the Amoya watershed to maintain capture o f horizontal precipitation, and carbon storage in the soil; and, (iii) adoption of a management program to prevent and mitigate activities (including fires) that would further reduce water retention capability in the soil. Other activities under the Amoya project include: (iv) providing incentives for restoration o f natural habitat; and (vi) strengtheningprotection for mega fauna inthe area. The strengthening o f the buffer zone will be done through voluntary agreements inthe zone to endorse sound sustainable practices to maintain soil cover. This will be done in coordination with Parks Unit. Adapted and sustainable agricultural practices will replace existing activities with net environmental benefits. Riparian vegetation will be restored around mountain streams using native species with no negative environmental impact. Fire control would be done through training and active involvement o f the community. Interventions sought in insular areas are varied. The main activities are related to rain harvesting water supply systems for small communities (around 20 families per community) without access to piped water. Only three communities are to be targeted at this pilot stage. Most expected environmental impacts are positives, as the rain water will be stored, treated, used and disposed o f in environmentally sound structures (septic tanks, infiltration fields and additional treatment required to protect the underlying aquifer). Measures to effectively protect existing marine protected areas and exclude all access to selected sites are also included inthe project. The Dengue and Malaria early warning system seeks to mainstream climate information, and scientific knowledge, into the fight against these climate associated vector diseases. If successful, the proposed decision making flow will make better use o f existing resources and minimize the use o f vector control chemicals (better focused, in time and location, vector control interventions), reducing morbidity as well as misuse o f pesticides. In all cases a well defined and staffed monitoring system will be implemented. The main purpose o f the project is to identify adaptation activities that show benefits in the short run and that help the communities to cope with climate variability and climate change. 81 Safeguard policies. The safeguard policies Environmental Assessment and Natural Habitats are triggered by the project. N o social safeguard policies are triggered. The adaptation measures to be implemented for the Seaflower Marine Protected Area under Component 3 are based on a previously agreed zoning with the local marine resource users that establishes no-take and no entry zones as well as areas for traditional artisan fishing, which resulted from the implementation o f the GEF/WB project Colombia Caribbean Archipelago Biosphere Reserve: Regional Marine ProtectedArea Systems. During the implementation of the above mentioned project the overall methodology emphasized community participation at the decision-making level to resolve resource use conflicts, empower the native community, integrate threat mitigation into management planning, and achieve equitable distribution o f benefits with emphasis on local nature-based tourism and fishing. The ICR states that participatory zoning agreements were obtained with local stakeholders, demarcating no-take, no-entry, special use, and artisanal fishing zones. Conservation action plans and monitoring action plans were written with high levels o f community involvement to support the conservation o f key species and M P A enforcement. As a direct result of this Project, artisanal fishers have regained access to traditional fishing sites, artisanal fishing zones have been legally enacted in collaboration with the Departmental FishingBoard, and agreements have been established with industrial fishers and the tourism industry. For the native community, sustainable access to the MPA is economically and culturally essential to survival. The Project Team obtained over 90% support from active fishers in the area. This high stakeholder backing was achieved as a result o f incorporating fishers inthe Project's planning and execution. Indeed, the fishers and other marine resource user groups agreed that establishing a marine protected area was their preferred management alternative even before the PDF A was designed. A series of stakeholder consultations incorporating conflict resolution and local empowerment were realized. A total o f 47 meetings and workshops were conducted regarding zoning, threats, enforcement and monitoring. The demarcation o f zones in the 3 MPAs included stakeholder formal agreements. The management structure o f MPAs was enacted by stakeholder agreements and includes 4 advisory committees. Management agreements were established with 2 stakeholder's advisory committees (fishers, artisanal and industrial, and water sports and marina and tourism). As stated in the ICR, CORALINA's principal success in designing and obtaining ratification for the Seaflower MPA was in its thoroughness and effort to obtain high community participation in every aspect o f project execution, including design, monitoring, zoning, outreach and capacity building. As can be seen Coralina's project implementation has included in practice all the provisions and requirements o f a Process Framework. This i s why INAP project does not need to prepare a Process Framework, for to do it would be to repeat the processes and agreements already reached with the local stakeholders. 82 Annex 11: ProjectPreparationand Supervision Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject Planned Actual PCN review 0411212004 01I1312004 Initial PID to PIC 0411912004 0411512004 Initial ISDS to PIC 0411912004 0412512004 Appraisal 1210112005 1211212005 Negotiations 01/1512006 BoardRVP approval 07/12/2006 Planned date o f effectiveness 911512006 Planned date o f mid-termreview 911512010 Planned closing date 12/15/2010 Key institutions responsible for preparationo f the project: IDEAM,Coralina, N E M A R , I N S Bank staff and consultants who worked on the project included: Name Title Unit Walter Vergara Task ManagerlLead LCSEN Chemical Engineer and Environmental Specialist Alejandro Deeb Hydrologist LCSEN Alonso Zarzar Social Scientist LCSEO MarkAustin Management Specialist LCSEN Juan C. Balaustequigoitia Lead Environmental LCSEN Economist Maria-Luisa Escobar LeadEconomist (Health) LCSHH Seraphine Haeussling Economist LCSEN Jose Martinez Procurement Specialist LCOPR Jeannette Estupiiian Financial Management LCOAA Specialist Tova Solo Disaster Management LCFPS Specialist April Harding Health Specialist LCSHH Juan Carlos Alvarez Counsel LEGLA Alejandro Alcala Gerez Lawyer LEGLA Bank funds spent to date on project preparation: 1. Bank resources: 110,000 2. Trust funds: 270,000 3. Total: 380,000 Estimated Approval and Supervision costs: 1. Remaining costs to approval: 50,000 2. Estimated annual supervision cost: 60,000 83 Annex 12: Documentsin the ProjectFile Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject Primera Comunicaci6n Nacional ante la Convencion Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climatico. IDEAM2001. Elaboraci6n de Escenarios de Cambio Climatico para el Territorio Colombiano. Universidad Nacional de Colombia para el IDEAM, 2005. Informacion Climatol6gica (Linea Base, Periodo de Prueba y Escenarios Climaticos) para Estudios de Impact0 del Cambio Climatico. Universidad Nacional de Colombia para el IDEAM,2005. Estudios del Clima del Paramo de las Hermosas. Universidad Nacional de Colombia para el IDEAM, 2005. ElClima y la Salud. UniversidadNacional de Colombia para el IDEAM,2005. Aproximaci6n a la Vulnerabilidad de 10s Ecosistemas de Alta Montaiia del Macizo Las Hermosas. German Andrade para el IDEAM, 2005. Estrategia de Adaptaci6n de 10s Ecosistemas de la Alta Montaiia Colombiana a1 Cambio Climatico Global- Macizo de Las Hermosas. German Andrade para el IDEAM,2005. e Medidas de Adaptaci6n de la Agricultura frente a1 Cambio Climatico. Francisco Boshell para el IDEAM, 2005. 0 Agroforesteria para la Produccion Animal Sostenible. Fundaci6n Centro para la Investigacihen Sistemas Sostenibles de ProduccicjnAgropecuaria. CIPAV, 2003 Sistemas Silvopastoriles, Establecimiento y Manejo. Fundaci6n Centro para la Investigacihen Sistemas Sostenibles de Produccibn Agropecuaria. CIPAV, 2004. Programa Holandes de Asistencia para Estudios en Cambio Climatico: Colombia Definici6n de la Vulnerabilidad de 10s Sistemas Biogeofisicos y Socioecon6micos debido a un Cambio en el Nivel del Mar en las Zonas Costeras Colombianas y Medidas para su Adaptacion. Informe Tecnico Final. VI1Tomos. INVEMAR, 2003 Diseiio de un Sistema de Monitoreo Climatico en el Area Insular del Caribe Colombiano, Carlos Andrade para INVEMAR, 2003. Areas Coralinas de Colombia. INVEMAR, 2000. Analisis de Datos sobre Niveles Piezometricos, Periodo 1997 - 2003. Andrea Piiieros para CORALINA, 2003. Analisis de Base de Datos (1996-2004) de Pozos Concesionados en la Isla de San Andres. Leonard0 Osorio para CORALINA, 2005. e Plan de Manejo de Aguas Subterraneas para la Isla de San Andres 2000-2009. CORALINA. e Evaluaci6n del Sistema de Vigilancia Epidemiol6gicoYSIVIGILA. Fabio Rivas para el INS. 0 Analisis Institucional para la Implementaci6n de las Medidas de Adaptacih. ECOVERSA,2005. Analisis de Costos Incrementales.ECOVERSA,2005. INTEGRATEDDENGUEAND MALARIA SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL SYSTEM, COLOMBIA, INSTITUTONACIONALDESALUDDECOLOMBIAMINISTER10 DELA PROTECCIONSOCIAL, HarishPadmanabha and Salua Osorio Mrad, January 2006. 84 Annex 13: Statementof Loans and Credits Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject Differencebetween expected and actual Original Amount in US$Millions disbursements Project JD FY Purpose IBRD IDA SF GEF Cancel. Undisb. Orig. Frm. Rev'd PO88857 2005 CO (CRL2) TAL to support the 2nd PSAL 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.85 0.52 0.00 PO82973 2005 CO APLI-Water & Sanit. Sector Support 70.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 70.00 0.00 0.00 PO82429 2005 CO-(APL1)DisasterVulnerability 260.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 260.00 0.18 0.00 Reduction PO82167 2005 CO - AgriculturalTransition Project 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 PO81397 2005 CO Prog Dev Policy Ln for Sust. Dev 150.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 150.00 0.00 0.00 PO51306 2004 CO 1st APL PEACE AND DEV 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.90 7.45 0.00 PO82466 2004 CO Integrated Mass Transit Systems 250.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 237.00 16.00 0.00 PO77757 2004 CO: CUNDiMARCA EDUCATION 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.87 4.17 0.00 QUALITY IMPROVE PO74726 2003 CO BogothUrban Services Project 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.82 28.16 0.00 PO74138 2003 CO-Higher Education Improving Access - 200.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 138.94 16.75 0.00 PO41642 2002 CO PRODUCTWE PARTNERSHIPS 32.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 13.40 11.37 0.12 PO65937 2002 CO WATER SECTOR REF 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.50 23.75 0.00 ASSISTANCE PROJECT PO57369 2002 CO Judicial ResolutionImprovementPrj. 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 1.59 2.69 0.77 PO63317 2001 GEF CO-HIGH ANDES 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.00 0.00 6.87 11.83 0.00 PO40109 2001 CO PUBLIC FINANC. MANAGEMENT 35.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.70 22.70 0.00 PROJECT11 PO68762 2000 CO- COMMUNITY WORKS (MANOS 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.98 4.18 71.16 3.36 A L A OBRA) PO57326 2000 CO SIERRA NEVADA SUSTAINABLE 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.86 0.78 -0.27 DEVELOPMENT PO50578 2000 CO RURAL EDUCATION 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.91 7.91 0.00 PO44140 2000 CO CARTAGENA WTR SUPPLY & 85.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 48.89 48.89 0.00 SEWERAGEENV. Total: 1,429.47 0.00 0.00 15.00 78.08 1,129.28 274.31 3.98 COLOMBIA STATEMENTOF IFC's Heldand Disbursed Portfolio InMillions ofUSDollars Committed Disbursed IFC IFC FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic. Loan Equity Quasi Partic. 2003 AAA 18.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 2002 BCSC 0.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 2002 Bavaria 61.76 0.00 30.00 103.57 61.76 0.00 30.00 103.57 CF del Valle 0.00 0.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.97 0.00 0.00 1988193 2001 CHMC 18.66 8,85 1.15 0.00 5.04 4.02 1.15 0.00 2004 Cartones America 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 CarvajalS.A. 35.00 0.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 . 0.00 0.00 2001 Cementos Caribe 3.04 5.73 0.00 6.48 3.04 5.73 0.00 6.48 85 1999 Corfinsura 25.00 0.00 23.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.04 0.00 2003 DAVIVIENDA I 19.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 2002 lnversura 0.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.00 0.00 0.00 2002 Omimex Oil 25.50 0.00 5.00 0.00 6.20 0.00 5.00 0.00 1987 PRODESAL 0.00 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.59 0.00 0.00 1977196 Promigas 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 1995 Promisan 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 2002 Proteccibn 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 2002 SIG 56.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 56.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 200 I Tolcemento 3.33 0.00 0.00 7.1 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TotalportAlio: 289.02 48.34 74.19 117.16 190.77 43.51 59.19 110.05 Approvals Pending Commitment FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic. 2004 Bancafe 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 2001 CHMC 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 200I CHMC- NPL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 CarvajalS A 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 2005 ColpatriaTier 2 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 2003 DAVIVIENDA I 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 Total pendingcommitment: 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.00 86 Annex 14: Countryat a Glance COLOMBIA: Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject Latin Lower- POVERTY and SOCIAL America middle. Colombia 8 Carib. Income 1 Development diamond* 2003 Population, mid-year (miiiions) 44.4 534 2,655 Life expectancy GNlper capita (Atlas method, US$) 1813 3,260 1,480 T GNI (Atlas method, US$billions) 80.4 1,741 3,934 Average annual growth, 1997-03 Population (w 1.7 1.5 0.9 Labor force (s'd 2.6 2.1 1.2 Gross primary M o s t recent estimate (latest year available, 1997-03) capita '. i Poverty (%of populationbeiownationaipo vertyiine) 64 Urbanpopulation (%oftotaipopuietion) 76 77 50 Life expectancyat birth (veers) 72 71 69 Infant mortality(per 1OOOlivebirths) 8 28 32 Child mainutrition(%ofchildrenunder5) 7 11 Access to improvedwater source Access to an improved water source (%ofpopuiation) 91 86 81 Illiteracy(%o fpopuiation age 69 8 11 x) Gross primaryenroliment (%ofschool-agepopuiation) 113 9 9 19 -...-.- Coiombia Male 113 '01 113 Lower-middle-incomegroup Female 139 Q6 111 KEY ECONOMIC RATIOS and LONG-TERM TRENDS 1983 1993 2002 2003 GDP (US$ billions) Economic ratios' 38.7 55.8 80.6 77.6 Gross domestic investment/GDP 8.9 21.3 15.2 15.9 Exports of goods andservlces/GDP 13.4 %,4 8 . 7 23.2 Trade Gross domestic savings/GDP 7.1 8.0 t3.7 14.4 Gross nationalsavingsiGDP 14.0 7.9 t3.2 0.5 Current account balancelGDP -8.4 -4.0 -2.0 -2.2 Interest paynentslGDP 1.6 2.0 2.6 2.7 Total debt/GDP 29.5 33.9 41.4 42.8 Total debt service/exports 36.4 33.8 44.4 48.9 Present value of debtlGDP 44.9 Present value of debtiexports 235.0 Indebtedness 1983-93 1993-03 2002 2003 2003-07 (averageannualgrowth) GDP 4.3 1.6 16 3.7 3.6 Colombia GDP percapita 2.2 -0.2 0.0 2.2 2.1 Lower-middie-income orom STRUCTURE o f the ECONOMY 1 Growth o f investment and GDP (%of GDPJ lgS3lgg32o02 2003 ( O h ) Agriculture 8.2 '0.9 t3.9 14.0 Industry 32.3 36.0 30.2 30.6 Manufacturing 21.5 20.5 15.6 15.9 Services 48.5 50.1 55.9 55.4 Private consumption 71.9 71.0 65.4 Generai government consumption 11.0 13.1 20.8 Imports of goods andsewices '0.2 18.8 21.2 24.7 1983-93 1993-03 2002 2003 (averageannuaigro wfhj Growth o f exports and imports ( O h ) Agriculture 3.5 -0.2 0.6 3.1 2o T Industry 4.6 0.4 1.7 3.4 10 Manufacturing 4.0 -0.5 1.1 4.4 0 Services 4.0 2.6 1.9 14 -10 Private consumption 4.1 0.8 2.2 6.5 -20 Generalgovernment consumption 4.6 7.3 0.6 -3.8 Gross domestic investment 2 6 4 3 - Imports of goods andservices 6 9 0 1 7 2 0 6 0383 ..-.Exports -Inports 87 Colombia PRICES and GOVERNMENT FINANCE 1983 1993 2002 2003 Inflation Domestic prices ( O h ) 1 (??change) Consumer prices 20 0 22 6 6.5 6.6 Implicit GDP deflator 20 4 28 0 5.7 6.6 Government finance (%of GDP includes current granlsj Current revenue 148 13.6 Current budget balance 29 4.9 Overall surplusideficit -0 5 -5.6 TRADE 1983 1993 2002 2003 (US$ millions) Export and import levels (US$ mill.) Totalexports (fob) 3.258 7,428 12,302 13,213 Coffee 1506 1140 798 Petroleum 435 1323 3,384 Manufactures 655 2,492 5,118 6,343 Total imports (cif) 4,968 9.831 12,077 13,370 Food 278 677 1476 Fuel and energy 642 362 119 i I Capital goods 1896 3,836 3,911 3,024 Export price index (@95=80) 11 61 242 260 e7 90 99 00 01 02 03 Import price index (SQ5=80J x) 77 259 278 aExports ol-ports Terms of trade (S95=80) 112 79 93 93 BALANCE of PAYMENTS 1983 1993 2002 2003 (US$ millions) Current account balance to GDP (YO) Exports of goods and sewices 4,050 9,961 14,130 13.028 Imports of goods and services 6,122 11624 15,392 7,077 I Resource balance -2,072 -1663 -1233 -1,048 Net income -1378 -1694 -2,812 -3,036 Net current transfers 183 1138 2,406 2,356 Current account balance -3,267 -2,28 -1,639 -1729 Financing items (net) 3.131 2,372 1500 7,477 Changes in net reserves 136 -153 138 252 Memo: Reserves including gold (US$ millions) Q844 x),586 Conversion rate (DEC,local/US$j 78.9 786 7 2,504.2 2,877.7 EXTERNAL DEBT and RESOURCE FLOWS 1983 1993 2002 2003 (US%millions) :omposition of 2003 debt (US$ mill.) Total debt outstanding and disbursed 1140 18.942 33,342 33,224 IBRD 1,511 2.969 2,349 3,241 IDA 19 12 6 5 G 3.800 A 3'241 - _ Total debt service 1600 3,707 6,847 8,428 IBRD 234 838 346 357 IDA 1 1 1 1 Compositionof net resourceflows Official grants 11 76 94 Official creditors 515 -311 20 2,052 Pnvatecreditors 535 989 -1,319 -2,880 Foreigndirect investment 618 959 2,023 F 18,056 u Portfolio equity 0 0 l7 World Bank program Commitments 63 400 187 1,115 \- E- Bilataal Disbursements 291 301 480 987 3 .IBRD IDA D. Other rmltilateral F .Private Pnncipal repayments 123 596 232 212 Z-IMF G Sbrt-!ai - 88 Annex 15: Incremental Costs Colombia: Integrated National Adaptation Project Overview 1. The proposed GEF project objective i s to define and implement pilot adaptation measures and policy options to meet the expected impacts from climate change in health, highmountainecosystems inLas Hermosas Massifand the Caribbean insular areas. 2. The proposed GEF project will provide complementary support to existing and planned (baseline) local activities related with the sustainable management o f natural resources as well as health preventing systems, to adjust them for reducing or preventing expected GCC impacts. 3. Colombia's vulnerabilities to climate change have been documented through the National Communications Process. Inparticular, GCC will affect natural ecosystems such as highmountain habitats and insular areas and will have impacts on exposure to tropical vector diseases. Inparticular: a. Fragile moorland and high mountain ecosystems o f Las Hermosas Massif will be affected by expected increase in temperature and consequently endemic and abundantly diverse flora and fauna, as well as with storage capacity for water and carbon in the soil associated with them. b. Sea level rise will increment salinity o f insular aquifers such as San Andres aquifer, reducing water supply for population, ecosystem requirements and economic activities. I t also will affect the integrity o f reefs and atolls including coral systems in the western Caribbean sea, which up to know were relatively isolated from (anthropogenic) impacts. Infrastructure and urbanareas inthe Caribbean areas will also be impacted. c. Sea temperature rise will affect already stressed coral ecosystems o f national and international importance inthe Caribbean. d. Increase in mean temperatures, is likely to result in an increase in the epidemic potential of both dengue and malaria in the vector-infested regions that currently experience little or no transmission because the climate i s too cold for pathogen development (18 - 2OOC). Broad Development Goals and the Baseline 1. The national development plans set out the objectives and priorities for sustainable development including environmental priorities that are designed by the MoE and incorporated by each regional environmental authority in their respective action plans. The current national development plan "Hacia un Estado Comunitario" for the period 2002 to 2006, has as a priority the sustainable management o f water resources, as well as conservation, management, restoration and sustainable use o f ecosystems. 2. Regional environmental authorities and research institutions are in charge o f executing national environmental policies inthe local level according with their action plans. 3. Regional environmental authorities with jurisdiction in Las Hermosas Massif (CVC, Cortolima and National Park Unit) are designing and implementing environmental management plans for moorland ecosystems for main local objectives o f water supply and biodiversity conservation. 89 4. Regional environmental authorities (Coralina and National Park Unit) with jurisdiction in the Caribbean insular areas are starting to formulate and implement Management Plans for the two Marine Protected Areas. Coralina administrate the San Andres Island aquifer according to the demand o f the population and economic activities. INVEMAR, the national marine research institute, is operating a monitoring system with 3 stations inthe Caribbean to monitor the environmental health o f coral ecosystems. 5. Finally, the National Health Institute coordinate a public health surveillance and control system which includes Malaria and Dengue diseases, based in case by case ex-post reporting, for coordinating measures to control local epidemics with department and municipalities. The surveillance and control system will be modified to standardize and improve the data reporting and management. 2. Global EnvironmentalObjective 1. GCC will affect natural ecosystems and health situation inColombia, inparticular: a. Fragile moorland and high mountain ecosystems o f Las Hermosas Massif will be affected by expected increase in temperature and consequently endemic and abundantly diverse flora and fauna, as well as with storage capacity for water and carbon in the soil associated with them. b. Sea level rise will increment salinity of San Andres aquifer reducing water supply for population and economic activities. It also will affect infrastructure and urban areas in the Caribbean areas. c. Sea temperature rise will affect already stressed coral ecosystems o f national and international importance inthe Caribbean. d. Increase inmean temperatures, is likely to result inan increase inthe epidemic potential o f both dengue and malaria in the vector-infested regions that currently experience little or no transmission because the climate i s too cold for pathogen development (18 - 20°C). 2. Baseline national and local plans, systems and activities are not considering the expected GCC impacts change inhealth, high mountain ecosystems in Las Hermosas Massif and the Caribbean insular areas. 3. Global main environmental objective o f the project i s to adjust local plans, systems and activities for including adaptation measures to expected impacts o f GCC inhealth, high mountain ecosystems inLas Hermosas Massif and the Caribbean insular areas 4. Beyond the specific above global environmental objective, the project will also lay the foundation for future replication within Colombia health and environmental sectors as well as incountries with comparable conditions and climate change vulnerability. 5. Under the baseline scenario, the process o f adaptation to GCC of natural ecosystems and health systems in Colombia and Caribbean insular areas, focused on pilot areas o f strategic importance, will not take place. The GEF involvement does catalyze specific actions to attend the findings o f vulnerability studies. N o actions on adaptation may result in: 90 Significant damage to the diverse endemic flora and fauna of the fragile moorland and high mountain ecosystems o f the Las Hermosas Massif due to the increases in temperature. In addition the storage capacity for water and carbon in the soil will be reduced. Increasing temperature o f the moorlands may induce a higher respiration rate of the peat beds, transfonning the soil from a net sink to a net source o f carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Reduction in water regulation and therefore unreliability inpower generation from hydro sources from the Massif. This may result in a need to increase the thermal power share in the area. Reduction in quality and reliability o f fresh water for public and economic activities and ecosystem integrity induced by the saline intrusion of he San Andres aquifer following rising sea levels. Infrastructure in many urban areas in the Caribbean will also be negatively affected. Additional damages to already stressed coral ecosystems in the Caribbean that are o f national and international importance. Increases in the epidemic potential o f both dengue and malaria following rises in mean temperatures that will allow development o f the pathogens in expanded ranges, all expressing as increased exposure to humans. Under the alternative scenario, adaptation and possible prevention o f some o f these consequences in the Las Hermosas Massif and Caribbean insular areas would occur. In particular, negative effects to high mountain ecosystems and to human health would receive adequate consideration, and significant, avoidable losses of globally significant biodiversity and impacts to human healthcouldbeprevented. 7. Under the alternative scenario, an integrated, targeted approach to climate change would ensure an adjustment o f local plans, systems and activities to ensure adaptation occurs inthe most efficient way to minimize losses to biodiversity and damage to humanhealth. 8. The project has additionally been designed to optimize sustainability and replicability and best practice results o f modifications to Colombia's health and environment sectors will be disseminated widely to countries with similar conditions and vulnerability to climate change. 3. Alternative 1. GEF alternative will meet baseline development goals o f sustainable management o f natural resources as well as health preventing systems as well as global environmental objective o f reduction and prevention o f expected GCC, inparticular: a. Environmental management plans for moorland ecosystems in Las Hennosas Massif will integrate climate change adaptation measures for expected climate change impacts such as adjusting environmental territorial planning, adaptive territorial land use planning, and ecological rehabilitation o f productive systems in the moorland areas and adoption o f sustainable productive systems including adaptive water resource management. b. Management Plans o f the Sea flower and Corales del Rosario Marine Protected Areas will be implemented securing the enforcement conservation activities o f fragile coral ecosystems vulnerable to climate change. An integrated monitoring system o f coral ecosystem and 91 climatic and physical variables will be in place for observation o f the effectiveness o f the measures as well as the expected climatic impacts. c. Water supply management in San Andres Island will be enhanced by incorporating the monitoring o f the expected effect o f sea level rise in the aquifer as well as by the promotion o f rainwater alternative supply systems. Department Territorial Planning will incorporate expected impacts o f sea level rise in infrastructure as well as possible adaptation measures. d. Finally, Public Health Surveillance and Control System will be complemented with an Early Warning System and with preventive measures to address the increased exposure to tropical vector-borne diseases (malaria and dengue) induced by climate change. 2. Operation decision making and resource allocation o f the above measures will only be possible with the strengthening o f Colombia's capabilities to produce and disseminate relevant climate, climate variability and climate change information. 3. Least-cost option o f GEF alternative i s guarantee by minimizing the changes o f the baseline plans and activities, incorporating only the necessary interventions to achieve the global environmental objective. None o f the components creates new institutions, plans or system that will result in inefficient costs. 4. Scope of the Analysis 1, The scope of the incremental cost analysis is limited geographically, thematically (depending o f the natural resources) and institutionally depending o f institutions incharge o f their administration as follows: 2. High mountain ecosystem component is limited geographically to Las Hermosas Massif and institutionally to research institute (IDEAM) and environmental authorities (CVC and Cortolima) incharge o f the administration o f highmountains natural ecosystems. 3. Insular component i s limited geographically to the Caribbean insular areas and institutionally to the research institute (INVEMAR) and the environmental regional authorities (Coralina and National Park Unit) in charge o f San Andres aquifer and coral ecosystem management. 4. Health component i s limited institutionally to the National Health Institute and the Departments and Municipalities that operates the Public Health Surveillance and Control System, as well as the research institute for climatic information(IDEAM). 5. Finally, climatic information component i s limited by the national institution in charge o f the generation corresponding information (IDEAM). 5. costs 1. Baseline costs were identified consulting official investment plans o f the institutions included in the project boundary (scope o f analysis), selecting specific programs and activities that relates with the ecosystem or element that will be affected by GCC addressed by the project. 2. When the investmentplans does not specify the projected geographically location o f the investment, the total cost was reduced applying the ratio o f the corresponding project boundary area compared with the total jurisdictional area o f the institution. Similarly, when the investment plan does not cover the project implementation period 2006-2010, the cost 92 was adjusted assuming an equivalent investment level. All figures where estimated in present values and converted usingan expected exchange rate of $2.200. 3. Baseline costs for high mountain ecosystems in Las Hermosas Massif are based on CVC and Cortolima action plans, in particular, allocated resources for watershed management plans ($2.02 millions), moorland management plans ($0.91 millions), sustainable agriculture projects ($0.9 millions) and local hydro-climatic monitoring systems ($0.78 millions). 4. Baseline costs for insular component are based on Coralina budget allocation and external project funding for implementing the management plan o f Sea Flower Marine Protected Area ($0.38 millions), as well as, INVEMAR projected budget for the maintenance o f coral monitoring system ($0.52 millions). 5. Baseline costs for health component are based on estimated operational cost o f the Public Health Surveillance and Control System both for the National Health Institute and for the municipalities ($2.44 millions). 6. Finally, baseline costs for climatic information component are based on annual cost o f operation and investment o f the hydrological and climatic monitoring system managed by IDEAM($6.82 millions). 7. GEF alternative incorporatesboththe baseline costs of the plan, activities and systems necessary to deliver the domestic benefits, as well as the cost of activities required to adjust them for reducing or preventing expected GCC impacts. 8. Incremental costs are calculated as the difference between baseline costs and GEF alternative, assuring that all the proposed project activities are additional to the baseline scenario. Summary o f results: The difference between the cost of the baseline scenario (US$ 15.6 Million) and the cost of the GEF alternative (US$21.0 Million) i s estimated at US$ 5.4 Million. This represents the incremental cost o f meeting the expected GCC impacts. 93 IncrementalCosts Summary Table (Figures in US%Millions) Cost Category BaselineI GEF Incremental DomesticBenefits Global Benefits Current alternative cost situation A. Making climate, 6.8 7.8 1.o Information of climate Local Climate climate variability, and hydrology for local Change and climate change priorities of transport, Scenarios information available agriculture, energy etc. suitable for the for adoption of design and adaptation measures adjustment of and policies. measures to adapt to GCC B. Adoption of an 4.6 6.2 1.6 High mountain Adjustment of adaptation program ecosystem local policies in the Las Hermosas management in Las and plans for Massif in the central Hermosas Massif for dealing with range of the Andes. . local priorities such as expected GCC water supply and impacts on high biodiversity mountain conservation. ecosystems in Las Hermosas. C. Adaptation 1.8 3.0 1.3 Management of water Implementation measures in resources, coast and of alternative Caribbean Insular marine protected area source of water for local priorities of for reducing potable water supply, GCC impacts. territorial development Adjustment of and biodiversity territorial conservation. planning for Low enforcement of prevention of conservation measures damages of due to budget GCC. restriction. High enforcement of conservation measures in marine ecosystems most vulnerable to GCC. D. Responses to the 2.4 3.4 1.o Malaria and Dengue Malaria and increasedexposure to response measures Dengue tropical vector-borne based on ex-post preventing diseases (malaria and reporting system. measures based dengue) induced by on early warning climate change systems that include climatic variables to prevent impacts of GCC. E. Administrative and 0.5 0.5 TOTAL 15.6 21.0 5.4 94 Annex 16: STAP Roster Review Colombia: Integrated National Adaptation Project The Colombia: Integrated National Adaptation Project i s aimed at integrating adaptation measures to the expected impacts o f GCC on health, high mountain ecosystems (Las Hermosas Massif) and the coastal zone (coastalhnsular areas on the Caribbean Sea).The total project cost is estimated at US$ 14.9 m, o f which GEF i s being approached to contribute in the amount o f US$ 5.4 m. Co-financing o f the project is expected to come from the Government o f Colombia, amounting to US$ 7.2 m, other donors contributing US$ 1.3 m and parallel co-financing through the Amoya Environmental Services Project totaling US$1.O m. Overall, the project, though ambitious given the level o f financing, has a lot o f merit and responds to a number o f pressing needs in relation to adaptation to greenhouse gas (GHG) climate change for a number o f regions and sectors inColombia. Moreover, the project appears to fit very well within the context o f the goals of the GEF. For example, the project involves financing other than that sought from the GEF. Also, the project appears to be scientifically and technically sound and clearly demonstrates components relating to existing 'capacity (MoE, CAR, CI, DMEWS, INVEMAR, IDEAM, INS) and capacity building (IRI, MRI, JAMSTEC) and monitoring. The project also identifies not only local, but also regional and global benefits in terms o f lessons to be learned on adaptation for the sectors o f concern. Furthermore, the project, by involving key national agencies (MoE, CAR, CI, DMEWS, INVEMAR, IDEAM, and INS) seems to take the necessary measures to assure the sustainability o f the project. The institutional and implementation arrangements and the monitoring and evaluation plans o f the project are well detailed and are highly commendable. Other issues include linkages to other programs and action plans (NCI, MDG) and a clear identification o f global environmental benefits and minimal impacts o f the project on the environment locally. However, the following are comments and suggestions that may help focus and strengthen the project proposal: 1. The tone o f the document assumes that GHG climate change and its impacts are inevitable, which may well be the case, but caution must be exercised in such assumptions because o f the highuncertainty, deriving from the level o f GHG forcing, spatial issues and climate models imperfections. R. Some impacts are irreversible, such as the changes in snow cover in the Andes and warming of the moorlands as well as the unavoidable increase in sea level, Coral bleaching i s already widespread. Uncertainty and caution are do and have been incorporated in the section discussingimpacts. 2. The sectors that form the focus o f the study are mountainous ecosystems, coastal zone and human health. Although the document provides adequate information interms of institutions and capacity for undertaking impacts studies in these sectors, there i s a lack of details relating the precise methodologies that are to be used to undertake the impacts and adaptation studies. R. Detailedmethodologies to conduct final studies and to initiate the implementation o f the adaptation measures proposed are beyond the scope o f this report. The selection 95 o f each implementation measures i s the result o f a normal project cycle consisting of: (i)Each participating agency, with key stakeholders, listed possible adaptation measures to cope with the CC impacts expected in its area o f jurisdiction. Each listed possible measure was then described and characterized -prefeasibility- to assess expected costs and benefits; (ii) Each project was subject to a fast review by a team o f experts to assess: institutional capacity o f implementing agency, probability o f success, and, CC incremental cost analysis; (iii) Those adaptation measures selected received additional attention to produce a detailed description, identify design needs, implementation requirements, institutional strengthening needed, improved cost estimates, additional CC incremental cost analysis, and institutional implementation arrangements required. Stakeholders were consulted and project scope was sharpened. Several key adaptation measures require complementary studies and design before implementation. Project schedule has incorporated this requirement, as well as the allocation o f resources. GEF resources are focused to guarantee that adequate designs are available before implementation starts. The technical section under D: Appraisal Summary has been extended in order to outline the methodology to select adequate adaptation measures. 3. There needs to be a better balance between the project proposal (pages 6-22) and the annexes (pages 22-68). In fact the Annexes are written in a more lucid language with a minimumof orthographic and spellingmistakes, as opposed to the project proposal. As a matter of fact a lot of crucial information relating to the details of the project, such as the components of the study, the sectors that are to be studied and the regions to be used as case studies are found in the appendices when they should have been incorporated in the project proposal. Where possible, editorial changes are suggested (inred) inthe draft document. R. Additional details have beenincorporatedin the main text. Spellingmistakes havebeen corrected. 4. The project proposal states that the impacts and adaptation components o f the study are to focus on health (incidence o f malaria and dengue), high mountain ecosystems (Las Hermosas Massif) and the coastal zone (coastal/insular areas on the Caribbean Sea). In the health sector, twelve pilot communities are mentioned for undertaking case studies. However, these municipalities are not identified and the country maps (Annex 17) are missing. Similarly in the high mountains ecosystems component, certain impacts on key sectors, such as water resources and hydropower generation are elaborated upon, whereas others such as agriculture and agro forestry that contribute significantly to GDP (14 % in 2003) are summarily dismissed.In the case o f the coastal zone sector relating to sea level rise impacts, it i s not clear as to whether the study is to focus essentially on the insular locations, such as San Andres Island or the Caribbean coastal region (San Andres, Providencia, Santa Catalina, Rosario, San Bernard0 and Isle Fuerte Archipelagos) as a whole. Also, details regarding the sectors o f concern (fisheries, tourism, water resources, coral reef health, coastal inundation erosion, saline intrusions and fires) are not clearly defined. R.For the health component, the pilot communities haveyet to be identifiedand this will be part of the first year of operations. A map has been added. 96 In the LasHermosasMassifagro-forestryand agricultureare only marginaland focused on the western part of the range. Water resources and hydro power receive focused attention because of the Amoya hydro-project due to start constructionin the nextfew months. The measures will be implemented both in insular and coastal regions. This is now more clearly indicated. Sectors of concern are all those indicated. A map has been added. 5. The document states (page 8) that the integration of the climate change dimension in sector policies has yet to take place. This i s a problem in many countries, especially developing countries where priorities do not favor climate change issues. The fact that the science o f climate change i s plagued by uncertainties and that the impacts o f climate change are projected to be well into the future further complicates this problem. There i s a need therefore to sensitize policy makers regarding the importance o f climate change issues. R.Agreed.A sentencein this regardhasbeenadded. 6. The identification o f critical risks and possible controversial aspects are to be commended. However, it i s stated that there are no controversial aspects (page 17). This statement is very strong and mustbejustified. R. We believe that the science while not complete does support strong and immediate action on the problems outlined. In the first component, efforts are made to reduce uncertaintieson local impacts from GCC. Also, the component leads to better management of uncertainties. A better justification of the statement hasbeen added. 7. The fact that social and environmental impacts o f the project, including an EA o f the project (pages 20-21), i s also highly commendable. 8. There are a number o f abbreviations and acronyms that are mentioned in the project document that are not listed in the Abbreviations and Acronyms (Page 2). These include: SPA, GOC, INAP, INVEMAR, Coralina, M&E, PDF-B, OECS, IBRD, PDO, SMIA, SAI, SIVIGILA, CVC, NPU. R. The acronyms table hasbeencompleted 9. The project is supposed to be co-financed by other agencies including other donors (US$ 2.1 m) (page 10). It would be advisable to name or list these other donors. R.The listof donorshasbeenhighlighted. In view of the above comments and bearing in mind the revisions to be made, the project appears to be well-founded andjustified and therefore GEF funding i s highly recommended. Bhawan Singh, Ph D.; STAP Roster Expert : Trinidad and Tobago. 97 countries are either too far north or south or lack mountains high enough. Altitudinal limits o f the mountainous biotopes are determined by the global climatic conditions; drier and cooler periods have meant for the northern Andes, an altitudinal depression o f the biotopes; while warmer and wetter conditions have been reflected in higher limits. Presently, in the Central Cordillera in Colombia, the altitudinal distribution o f biotopes, below perennial snow and alpine desert is:paramo at 3.300-4.500 m, Andeanforest at 2.500-3.300 m, sub Andeanforest from 1.000 to 2.500 m, and tropical forest from sea level up to 1.000 m (van der Hammen & Gonzalez, 1960; Hooghiemstra, 1987, cited by Adams & Faure, 1995). The upper reaches o f the Amoya River basin are conformed by a paramo. I t i s considered o f major importance given its great ecological value and the multiple environmental services it provides, both reasons make the relation with the project o f particular relevance. Paramos in the Amoya area form the largest patch in the Central Cordillera. The smaller Purace and Nevado del Huila paramos, both with extensive protected areas, are located to the south; and to the north, the also smaller paramos from Los Nevados National Park. Amoya regional paramos cover and area ca. 1.500 km2 that extends from the western slope o f the cordillera, inValle province (17%), and to the Northand South of the Amoya river basin (57%). From that total, 650 km2are under protection inthe Paramo de Las Hermosas National Park, 27% o f which are within the Amoya river basin. Diversityand endemism Paramos are the richest and largest examples o f tropical montane grasslands and shrub lands in the world, with high levels of endemism at regional and local scales. Landscape distinctiveness i s given by numerous species o f Frailejon (Espeletia spp), chuscales (Chusquea tesselata) and grass tussocks (Calamagrostis effusa), spectacled bear (Tremarctos ornatus), three species o f deer (Odocoileus virginianus, Mazama vufna, and Pudu mephistophiles), more than 30 species o f hummingbirds and the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) (Olson et al., 1998; Hofstede, 2002). Populations o f this latter species are particularly important in the paramo corridor from AmoydLas Hermosas, south to Nevado del Huila, given the isolation and inaccessibility o f the region(Lizcano et al., 2002). Inspite ofthenumerous studies ofparamo flora andfauna inthe northernAndes, biodiversity evaluation is far from being complete (Hofstede, 2002). The best systematic compilation about habitats and organisms inthe Colombian paramos, with observations inparamos within Las Hermosas/Amoya region, was published by Range1in 2000. Table 2, synthesizes species data for major taxa in the paramo biotope and in three paramos in Colombia: Chingaza in EasternCordillera, Los Nevados inCentral Cordillera, to the north o f Las Hermosas. Climate, ecological relationships and geomorphology determine habitat complexity in paramos. Habitats within the paramo biotype are also related to soil trophic level, to water retention capacity and to exposure, which together determine the major vegetation associations, from woody dense shrubs to isolated patches o f grass tussocks. Water retention capacity o f paramo soils i s related to organic matter content which itself depends on plant tissue turnover (Becking, 1990; Hofstede, 2002). Finally, spatial heterogeneity i s particularly important in paramos for a number of reasons, amongst which the proliferation o f shelters (against wind, desiccation, excessive solar radiation, rain fall and run off erosion, etc.) i s a key factor. The large number o f alpine lakes in Las Hermosas, over 300 according to UPN (2003), are head waters o f many rivers, particularly on the western slope, increasing the 99 P i l i f I c Ilf3 c;t .TI ins, 'I'vestigial :W7' cit. *I%lh. time limit i.e., it could proceed indefinitely, an important difference with carbon capture done by plants alone, which i s restrictedto the plant pre-maturation period. The provision o f these two services depends on the conservation status o f paramo areas, in a complex cycle that involves the following factors. First, the natural vegetation. The term natural does not imply the exclusion of human occupation nor the utilization of resources. It does require though, that the processes of colonization and succession can proceed unhampered and that the rate of consumption of resources does not exceed the rate o f restitution, by natural processes, that produces large quantities of organic matter (e. g., litter from frailejonales und chuscales, etc.); second, the andosols, over which vegetation grows and, together with which, retains and conserves water; and third, the edaphic micro-climate, which results from water retention and favors plant repopulation and colonization. The destruction o f paramo soil cover interferes with this cycle, thereby reducing -and even eliminating- the capacity o f paramos to store water and carbon. 102 Annex 18: EnvironmentalAssessment Colombia:IntegratedNationalAdaptationProject A. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1. Lending instrument The project cost would be financed by an SPA-GEF grant in the amount o f US$ 5.4 m, with co-financing from: (i) GOC's own resources (US$7.2 m); (ii) donors (US$1.3 m); (iii) other and parallel co-financing through the Amoya River Environmental Services Project (US$ 1.O m from anticipated carbon revenues), totaling US$ 14.9 m. The SPA requires that the majority o f benefits translate into protection o f global biodiversity and prevention o f land degradation. 2. Project development objective and key indicators The project development objective is to support Colombia's efforts to define and implement specific pilot adaptation measures and policy options to meet the anticipated impacts o f climate change. These efforts will be focused on high mountain ecosystems, insular areas, and human health concerns related to the expansion o f areas for vectors linked to malaria and dengue. All these have been identified as priority areas in the National Communications and other studies. Key performance indicators: Strengthened capability to produce and disseminate relevant climate change information through the availability o f continuous and reliable climate information o f relevance to major climate change vulnerabilities inhealth, mountain ecosystems, and insular areas (157 climate stations modernized). A t least six pilot adaptation activities have been implemented and monitored, addressing vulnerabilities to climate change in high mountain ecosystems, insular and coastal areas, and health, including: Maintenance o f the hydropower generation capacity, measured through sustained water regulation o f the Las Hermosas Massif inthe Amoya River watershed. Adaptation program designed and incorporated in regional development plans for the Las Hermosas Massif. Positive impacts on biodiversity and land degradation documented. Adaptation program designed and incorporated in regional development plans for Colombia's Caribbean insular areas including increased management performance o f key marine ecosystems and reduced vulnerability in water supply to local communities. Strengthened public health program incorporating management measures to meet the increased threats from dengue and malaria induced by climate change, resulting in a 30% reduction o f malaria and dengue morbidity by project closure. 3. Project components a) Making climate, climate variability, and climate change information available for the adoption o f adaptation measures and policies (total cost US$ 3.1 m; GEF funding US$ 1.0 103 m). This component seeks to strengthen Colombia's capabilities to produce and disseminate climate information (useful for resource allocation and operational decision-making), in support o f adaptation to climate change measures and programs. b) Design and implementation of an adaptation program that supports maintenance of environmental services (including hydropower potential) in the Las Hermosas Massif in the central range o f the Andes (total cost US$ 3.47 m; GEF funding US$ 1.57m). The Massif i s the world's most humidhigh altitude moorland, a highly diverse biotope o f particular concern for climate change impacts. I t i s also important for potential hydropower generation. c) Adaptation measures in Caribbean insular areas (total cost US$2.9 m; GEF funding U S $ 1.3 m). The objective o f this component i s to support the implementation o f physical adaptation measures in order to reduce the vulnerability o f the Caribbean insular area, especially with regard to changes inrainfall and temperature and sea-level rise. d) Responses to increased exposure to tropical vector-borne diseases (malaria and dengue) induced by climate change (total cost US$4.7 m; GEF funding US$ 1.O m). The objective of this component i s to address increased exposure to tropical vector-borne diseases (malaria and dengue) induced by climate change through the implementation o f an Early Warning System for Malaria and Dengue Surveillance and Control (DMEWS), seeking a 30% reduction in both malaria and dengue morbidities inpilot areas. 4, Sector issues addressed by theproject The project addresses key vulnerabilities to climate change as identified in vulnerability assessments and other studies. The project also addresses the need for better information on climate. The project contributes to the mainstreaming o f climate concerns into the health sector and the development plans for the Las Hermosas Massif and insular and coastal areas. Protection of the Massif will contribute to maintaining its hydropower potential, which in turnmaybeused to displace carbon emission reductions from the power sector. 5. Mainstreaming measures andpolicy content Sustainability o f project activities depends on the success in mainstreaming adaptation as a key element in local and regional development plans. Policy linkages will be o f use for interventions in the power sector, disaster management, and biodiversity and water management. The close coordination sought between these sectors will support a coherent policy support o f the World Bank inColombia. B. ENVIRONMENTALMANAGEMENT OF THE INAP PROJECT The environmental managementplan takes into account the previously described components as well as the project's classification as Category B.The supported activities may have minor environmental impacts from some on-the-ground investments. The project will make use of environmental best practices. The following table presents environmental issues and impacts. Formulation of adaptationprograms 104 Kes elements of the detailed national health plan, considering of this component, based formulation and design o f site- ~ anticipated GCC impacts on the on the definition o f action specific adaptation interventions incidence o f malaria and dengue. programs and on the are the identification o f potential scientific evaluation o f environmental and social ii. Evaluation of GCC impacts on high aspects related to climate impacts, their characterization, mountain ecosystems and Colombia's change in high mountain and the definition o f specific Caribbean insular areas. areas, no direct or indirect actions to improve, prevent, and negative environmental control adverse outcomes. There effect is likely to arise are no institutional capacity during the implementation issues as most participating o f this component. agencies are associated with or are regional environmental authorities. Colombia's environmental regulations are adequate for the expected impacts. Implementatio of pilot adaptation measi DS (i)Identificationofpilotadaptationoptions Impacts are localized and During pilot implementation (ii)Preparation of cost benefit analysis for limited to the sites where INAP has chosen to assure applicable options each pilot measure for safeguard compliance through a (iii)Developmentofimplementationstrategy climate change adaptation well defined and detailed (iv) Implementation of pilot adaptation is implemented. In all cases monitoringplan. measures. The pilot measures may the impact is positive include: because the measures are Given the small size o f the aimed at mitigating proposed interventions, and their A - Pilot adaptation program in Las identified and documented pilot or experimental nature, the Hermosas Massif problems caused by GCC country's existing standards and B Pilot - adaptation program in impacts, favoring procedures are rated acceptable environmental best and in agreement with the C Adaptation program for the energy - Colombia's Caribbean insular area practices. Bank's OP 4.01. sector, incorporating the changes in rainfall patterns and the reduction o f Community involvement should natural water reserves in high be sought, not only to disclose mountain areas as result o f projected the environmental and social GCC. assessments, but as a means to improve the accountability o f those executing the pilots. Adequate reporting o f all social and environmental activities with community involvement is encouraged. Monitorii g and evaluation systems INAP will support the design and No significant impacts are It is recommended that the M&E implementation o f the corresponding expected because this system specifically include monitoring and evaluation systems in order to component will only environmental indicators to analyze the effectiveness o f the adaptation monitor and evaluate the assess pilot environmentally measures adopted under the project measures taken and will not induced impacts, most o f which framework. have any direct or indirect are expected to be positive. effect on the environment. Taking into account the potential environmental impacts, the following table summarizes the environmental management for each component. 105 Environmental Component Description Field Environmental interventions negativeissues control Monitoring measures Sub-component None No N.A. rhis component 1: Improving environmental will guide the IDEAM's impact expected nonitoring technical and as consequence iesign of the scientific of this system. capacity to subcomponent. produce This component Llonthly relevant provides the basis xogress reports. climate change for environmental information, planning and including management Component timely and incorporating the 1 Making - reliable impacts from climate, forecasts GCC. climate tailored to decision- variability, makers. This and climate will be change undertaken by information (i)Analysis of available modeling of for adoption climate and its of variability; (ii) adaptation Preparation and measures publication of andpolicies. reports on the incidence of GCC in Colombia ; (iii) Dissemination of knowledge on GCC. Sub-component None No N.A. *Monthly 2: Development environmental progressreports. of local climate impact expected change as consequence scenarios to of this support subcomponent. selection of This sub- adaptation component will measures. The support the activity monitoring supported process by under this reducing the subcomponent uncertainty levels includes the related to GCC elaboration of impacts. GCC scenarios. 106 Sub-component Selected Technical Adequate *Monthly 3: Complement stations will be upgrading will be iisposal of used xogress report and strengthen upgraded for done on existing parts. +Certification of existing climate monitoring stations thus not All solid waste 3dequate data network of GCC variables causing will be collected iisposal of used relevance to and integrated additional and disposed ?arts climate change into the climate physical following best by supporting reference footprint. Data practices - using equipment network. collected by approved renovation Specific updated network landfills. activities will improve the include: (i) production of Upgrade and climate calibrate information equipment of required for selected decision making. stations; (ii) Evaluation and processing information on temperature and rainfall. (iii) Verification and processing of information generated by reference network. Sub-component None No negative Land use plans *Progress 1: environmental will include reports Mainstreaming impacts are better GCC expected as information *Monitoring information consequence of related to protocol into ecosystem this probable future planning and subcomponent. climate scenarios. *Updated Park management in On the contrary, This will allow Management Las Hermosas it will help to for improved Plan Massif for reduce decision making incorporating maintenance of vulnerability of preservation of climate change ecosystem through selected scenarios. services, mainstreaming ecosystems and including GCC information on the intensity hydropower into planning of land uses. potential processes. 107 the Las Sub-component Specific qo negative rhe *Progress Hermosas 2: Reduction of measures mvironmental itrengthening of reports; Massif in adverse being mpacts are he buffer zone *Application of the central impacts on considered :xpected as a w i l l be done monitoring range of the water include: (i) :onsequenceof hrough voluntary protocol under Andes regulation in conservation his igreements with Sub-component the Amoya of natural iubcomponent. and holders. 1. watershed of vegetation of Some positive iiparian water *Surveys importance for riparian belts nvironmental :ourse belts conducted at hydropower along side mpacts are ,educe erosion least yearly. potential of the streams; (ii) :xpected, ind siltation, and Reportedyearly. Amoya project. conservation ncluding: irovide habitat *The component and recovery naintenance of 'or wild life. will also be of soil cover in water regulation 3nly native flora monitored under the Amoya ibility of w i l l be used. the monitoring watershed to mportancefor rhis will be done protocol agreed maintain iydropower n coordination under the capture of :eneration; with Parks Unit. Amoya River horizontal ieduction of -. .ire control Environmental precipitation, 'requency of would be done Services. and carbon nducedtires in hrough training *Development storage in the selectedpilot ind active and soil; and, (iii) ireas of Las nvolvement of implementation adoption of a Hermosas .he community. of wildfire management Massif. Flora and Fire control reporting program to Fauna of global iccess roads and protocols and prevent and importanceare 3aths will procedures. mitigate Zxpectedto ninimize their Annual reports. activities improve mpacts at water (including xological xossings and in fires) that :onditions xological would further leadingto stable sensitive areas. reduce water populationsin the Strict retention Massif (as mvironmental capability in measuredthrough guidelines will be the soil. selected used. Other indicators and a activities few emblematic under the species); Amoya project Characteristics of include: (iv) Paramo area in providing pilot areas of Las incentives for Hermosas Massif restoration of (i.e. soil covered natural habitat; by unique high and (vi) altitude flora of strengthening global protection for importance) is mega fauna in expectedto be the area. recovered. Sub-component This activity of Land use plans *Progress 3: Adaptive planning nature will include reports land-use will not cause better planning any negative information *Adoption of models. environmental related to Land Use Plans impact, probable future incorporating climate scenarios. GCC This will allow information, in for improved at least 2 108 iecision making nunicipalities. ifpreservation of selected xosystems and in the intensity )flanduses. Sub-component This will be Adapted and Jse of best k Progress 4: Improvement achieved sustainable mvironmental `eports; of productive through pilot agricultural xactices. agro- interventions in practices will Emphasis on: 'Application o f ecosystems in extensive cattle replace existing *educed land nonitoring high altitude raising areas activities with net iegradation x-otocol under moorland (with environmental 3ractices; Sub-component `)aramo" and associated benefits. idequate use and L . sub-paramo grass burning) Reduction o f iisposal o f area of Las which would socioeconomic agrochemicals; 'Economic Hermosas be changed to vulnerability o f *educe direct issessment o f Massif: intensive cattle population :attle access to raditional and raising through the water courses; iew land use practices, grass introduction o f use o f native xactices to be cultivation, and enhanced species; reduce / :onducted at ecosystem productive eliminate slash & MTR and EOP. restoration. systems resilient burnt practices; to GCC impacts. improve water Capacity building usage. and knowledge exchange processes will be ensured in order to disseminate results, and formulation of replication strategy in other areas with similar environment. Subcomponent Acquisition, Buoys and Site location for * Progress 1 - installation, structures to be the stations will reports Component Mainstreaming training, located in be selected given 3 -Adoption GCC operation and environmental due consideration * Site of an information maintenance o f sensitive areas. to potential inspections into key sectors air-ocean impacts on reports including adaptation for decision- automatic Maintenance and sensitive environmental program in making monitoring operational site ecosystems. observations. the processes, stations and the visits might Site inspection Colombian including those creation o f a impact sensitive for O&M will *Supervision Caribbean related with Center o f Data ecosystems. follow missions Insular climate change, Administration environmental Areas in Colombian guidelines. Caribbean Insular Areas (INVEMAR): 109 Subcomponent The main Most expected Jse of 'Progress 2 - Integrated activities under environmental ippropriate 'eports water resources this component impacts are :nvironmental i'Field surveys, management. are related to positive, as the yidelines during aboratory Enhance the rain harvesting rain water will be :onstruction; esting, availability of water supply stored, treated, lisposal O f 'hotographs fresh water in systems for used and :onstruction the Caribbean small disposed of in lebris will follow @Monitoring insular areas, communities environmentally ipgraded 'eports on water as well as (around 20 sound structures guidelines for iuality and contribute to its families per (septic tanks, nsular areas, iuantity; more eflcient community) infiltration fields inder @Effectiveness use (Coralina); without access and additional ireparation; md social to piped water. treatment Periodic mpacts of pilot Only three required to nonitoring of xojects will be communities protect the water use and messed at MTR are being underlying wastewater md EOP. targeted at this aquifer). jisposal pilot stage. Subcomponent Demarcation of Measures to Development and +Monitoring 3 - Marine protectedareas; effectively implementation qeports on coral Protected Demarcations protect existing s f an iealth and Areas. Support of no entry I no marine protected xforcement socioeconomic the take areas. areas and exclude strategy wit the impacts of implementation all access to fishing :onservation of the marine selected sites are :ommunity. measures; protected areas also included in *Monitoring system in the the project. bio-physical Seajlower parameters that reserve as well are indicators of as in the climate change CRSBeIF in and ecosystem order to health; and, contribute to *Socioeconomic the assessment conservation of (effectiveness, marine incomes, ecosystems; enforcement; community perceptions) at MTR and EOP. Subcomponent Pilot activities No negative Use best practice *Progress 4 - Integrated to be defined environmental environmental reports Coastal with the impacts are guidelines (to be *Monitoring - Management. community. expected. included inOM) regular and Reduce the All activities special vulnerability of envisioned are monitoring of economic small scale low coastal erosion, activities, environmental ecosystems, and infrastructure, impacts beaches, population measures. including beach living close to profiling the coast, and beaches in the face of GCC impacts. Component Subcomponent Targeted vector No significant Entomological Detailed 4 - 1:Design of the control environmental surveysto guide monitoring DME WS. measures; impact expected; vector control system 110 Responses Subcomponent measures; developedfor to the 2: Updating and this component; increased Strengthening executing Progressreports; exposureto institutional guidelines and Malaria and tropical capacity. control. proceduresfor Dengue vector- Subcomponent buying, storing, surveillance and 3: transporting, and control reporting borne Implementation applying system diseases and operation. insecticides; implemented; (malaria Subcomponent Training. Independent and dengue) 4: Monitoring, surveys; induced by evaluation and Supervision climate system missions. change readjustment. 111 f 12 76°15' 76°00' 75°45' 75°30' COLOMBIA QUINDÍO QUINDÍO 4°15' 4°15' INTEGRATED NATIONAL ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM Las Hermosas High Altitude Moorlands Barragán PROJECT AREA 4°00' San Pedro Roncesvalles 4°00' HIGH ALTITUDE MOORLANDS LAS HERMOSAS MASSIF LAS HERMOSAS NATIONAL PARK BOUNDARY VALLE DEL ALLE DEL San Jose de Las Hermosas TOWNS CAUCA CAUCA ROADS Las Hermosas DEPARTMENT BOUNDARIES 3°45' Guacarí National Park 3°45' This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information El Cerrito TOLIMATOLIMA shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 90° 80° 70° 60° UNITED STATES Rio Blanco 30° 30° 3°30' A T L A N T I C 3°30' Gulf of Mexico O C E A N BAHAMAS CUBA Florida 20° DOMINICAN 20° JAMAICA HAITI REPUBLIC MEXICO BELIZE Caribbean Sea 3°15' HONDURAS 3°15' GUATEMALA For Detail, See EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA IBRD 34615 10° 10° COSTA RICA R.B. de VENEZUELA PANAMA COLOMBIA CAUCA CAUCA P A C I F I C Area of Map 3°00' 3°00' O C E A N 0 10 20 HUILA HUILA 0° 0° IBRD MARCH ECUADOR KILOMETERS BRAZIL 34616 2006 76°15' 76°00' 75°45' 75°30' 90° 70° 60°