58404 V3 The Zambezi River Basin A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Volume 3 State of the Basin THE WORLD BANK The Zambezi River Basin A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Volume 3 State of the Basin June 2010 THE WORLD BANK WATER RESOuRcES MANAgEMENT AfRicA REgiON © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Cover and interior design: The Word Express Cover photos: © Photographer Len Abrams/World Bank © Photographer Marcus Wishart/World Bank © Photographer Vahid Alavian/World Bank Contents Acknowledgments..................................................................................................................................... xi AbbreviAtions.And.Acronyms................................................................................................................xiii the.ZAmbeZi.river.bAsin:.bAckground.And.context............................................................................1 1.1 Motivation for This Analysis ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Summary of Findings ............................................................................................................................. 3 1.3 Basic Characteristics of the Zambezi River Basin ............................................................................... 3 1.4 Population and Economy ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.5 Approach and Methodology .................................................................................................................. 7 1.5.1 Analytical framework .................................................................................................................. 8 1.5.2 The River/Reservoir System Model ............................................................................................. 9 1.5.3 The Economic Assessment Tool ..................................................................................................11 2.. biophysicAl.And.socioeconomic.context......................................................................................13 2.1 Overview of Basin Hydrology ............................................................................................................. 13 2.1.1 Rainfall characteristics............................................................................................................... 13 2.1.2 Runoff characteristics ................................................................................................................ 13 2.1.3 Subbasin characteristics............................................................................................................. 15 2.2 Extreme Events....................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2.1 Floods ......................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2.2 Droughts .................................................................................................................................... 29 2.3 Climate Change ..................................................................................................................................... 30 2.4 Overview of the Basin Biophysics ....................................................................................................... 33 2.4.1 Biomes and river zones ............................................................................................................. 33 2.4.2 Bioregions and ecoregions .......................................................................................................... 34 2.4.3 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 40 2.5 Macroeconomic Overview .................................................................................................................... 40 2.5.1 Angola ........................................................................................................................................ 41 2.5.2 Botswana ................................................................................................................................... 43 2.5.3 Malawi ....................................................................................................................................... 43 2.5.4 Mozambique ............................................................................................................................... 43 2.5.5 Namibia ...................................................................................................................................... 44 2.5.6 Tanzania ..................................................................................................................................... 45 2.5.7 Zambia ....................................................................................................................................... 45 2.5.8 Zimbabwe ................................................................................................................................... 46 iii The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 2.6 Socioeconomic Overview ..................................................................................................................... 46 2.6.1 The Upper, Middle, and Lower Zambezi River Basin .............................................................. 46 2.6.2 Demographic development ......................................................................................................... 47 2.6.3 Income and poverty .................................................................................................................... 50 2.6.4 Livelihood ................................................................................................................................... 51 2.6.5 Gender and youth ...................................................................................................................... 57 2.6.6 Health and education ................................................................................................................. 57 3.. beneficiAl.uses.of.wAter..................................................................................................................61 3.1 Energy and Hydropower...................................................................................................................... 61 3.1.1 Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) ...................................................................................... 61 3.1.2 Existing hydropower plants in the Zambezi River Basin.......................................................... 64 3.1.3 Potential hydropower projects in the Zambezi River Basin ..................................................... 66 3.1.4 SAPP energy sector development .............................................................................................. 71 3.1.5 Strengths and challenges of hydropower development in the Zambezi River Basin ................. 72 3.1.6 Opportunities and constraints for hydropower development in the Zambezi River Basin ....... 74 3.1.7 Characteristics and parameters of hydropower plants ............................................................... 75 3.2 Irrigated Agriculture ............................................................................................................................ 95 3.2.1 Regional policies for agriculture and irrigation development ................................................... 95 3.2.2 Overview of agricultural sector ................................................................................................. 97 3.2.3 Cultivated area within the Zambezi River Basin ...................................................................... 99 3.2.4 Water abstractions for existing irrigation schemes ................................................................. 100 3.2.5 Recession irrigation ................................................................................................................. 101 3.2.6 Estimated equipped area ­ ZACPRO 6 sector study and MSIOA ......................................... 105 3.2.7 Agricultural production trends ............................................................................................... 105 3.2.8 Water availability and regulation ............................................................................................ 106 3.2.9 Population density in irrigated areas....................................................................................... 106 3.2.10 Commercially viable agriculture ­ the case of sugar ............................................................. 108 3.2.11 High irrigation potential ........................................................................................................ 108 3.2.12 Identified irrigation projects ...................................................................................................111 3.3 Wetlands ................................................................................................................................................111 3.3.1 Direct and indirect use..............................................................................................................111 3.3.2 Types of wetlands in the Zambezi River Basin .........................................................................114 3.3.3 Barotse Floodplain.....................................................................................................................115 3.3.4 Eastern Chobe-Caprivi Wetlands .............................................................................................117 3.3.5 Kafue Wetlands .........................................................................................................................118 3.3.6 Lower Shire Wetlands .............................................................................................................. 120 3.3.7 Luangwa Wetlands .................................................................................................................. 122 3.3.8 Zambezi Delta ......................................................................................................................... 123 3.3.9 Summary of values .................................................................................................................. 125 3.4 Tourism ................................................................................................................................................. 125 3.4.1 Tourism in Africa ..................................................................................................................... 125 3.4.2 Effects from water extraction for tourism ................................................................................ 127 3.4.3 Tourism in the subbasins and possible effects from changes in water flow ............................. 127 3.4.4 Tourism ­ strengths and challenges ........................................................................................ 130 3.4.5 Tourism ­ opportunities and constraints................................................................................. 132 3.5 Fisheries and Aquaculture.................................................................................................................. 135 3.5.1 Aquatic habitats ....................................................................................................................... 135 iv Contents 3.6 Navigation ............................................................................................................................................ 139 3.6.1 Ongoing initiatives .................................................................................................................. 140 3.7 Municipal and Industrial Water Supply........................................................................................... 143 3.7.1 Domestic water use .................................................................................................................. 143 3.7.2 Industrial and mining water use ............................................................................................. 143 3.7.3 Identified projects of interest .................................................................................................... 144 3.8 Water quality ........................................................................................................................................ 145 3.8.1 Pollution from domestic waste ................................................................................................. 145 3.8.2 Pollution from the agriculture sector....................................................................................... 146 3.8.3 Pollution from the mining sector ............................................................................................. 147 3.8.4 Pollution from the industrial sector......................................................................................... 150 3.8.5 Additional water quality issues ............................................................................................... 150 3.8.6 Water quality management...................................................................................................... 151 3.8.7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 152 regionAl.cooperAtion............................................................................................................................155 4.1 Regional Economic Communities .................................................................................................... 155 4.2 Institutional Context for Transboundary Cooperation in the Zambezi River Basin ................. 156 4.2.1 SADC ­ framework and activities ........................................................................................... 156 4.2.2 The Zambezi River Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) .................................................. 159 4.2.3 Additional shared watercourse agreements in ZRB ................................................................ 163 4.2.4 Institutional arrangements in riparian countries ................................................................... 164 4.2.5 Information Management Systems ......................................................................................... 164 4.2.6 National management arrangements for the Zambezi River ................................................. 168 4.2.7 Recommendations for further analysis .................................................................................... 168 4.2.8 Concluding remarks ................................................................................................................. 170 references.................................................................................................................................................171 Annex:.list.of.stAkeholders.consulted..............................................................................................177 Figures Figure 1.1. The Zambezi River Basin and its 13 subbasins .............................................................................. 5 Figure 1.2. Schematic of the Zambezi River with deregulated mean annual discharge (m3/s) and runoff (mm) ................................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 1.3. Zambezi River Basin: scenario analysis matrix ............................................................................. 9 Figure 1.4. Schematic of the river/reservoir system model for the Zambezi River Basin ....................... 10 Figure 1.5. Schematic of the elements of the economic analysis tool ........................................................... 12 Figure 2.1. Hydrograph of Kabompo, subbasin 13 (rainfall, ETP and flow) .............................................. 15 Figure 2.2. Hydrograph of Upper Zambezi, subbasin 12 (rainfall, ETP and flow) .................................... 16 Figure 2.3. Hydrograph of Lungúe Bungo, subbasin 11 (rainfall, ETP and flow) ...................................... 17 Figure 2.4. Hydrograph of Luanginga, subbasin 10 (rainfall, ETP and flow) ............................................. 17 Figure 2.5. Hydrograph of Barotse, subbasin 9 (rainfall, ETP and flow) ..................................................... 18 Figure 2.6. Hydrograph of Cuando/Chobe, subbasin 8 (rainfall, ETP and flow) ...................................... 19 Figure 2.7. Hydrograph of Kafue, subbasin 7 (rainfall, ETP and flow) ....................................................... 20 Figure 2.8. Hydrograph of Kariba, subbasin 6 (rainfall, ETP and flow) ...................................................... 21 v The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 2.9. Hydrograph of Luangwa, subbasin 5 (rainfall, ETP and flow) ................................................. 21 Figure 2.10. Hydrograph of Mupata, subbasin 4 (rainfall, ETP and flow) .................................................... 22 Figure 2.11. Hydrograph of Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, subbasin 3 (rainfall, ETP and flow) ................................................................................................................... 23 Figure 2.12. Hydrograph of Tete, subbasin 2 (rainfall, ETP and flow) ........................................................... 24 Figure 2.13. Hydrograph of Zambezi Delta, subbasin 1 (rainfall, ETP and flow) ........................................ 25 Figure 2.14. Flooding in Kafue River Basin........................................................................................................ 26 Figure 2.15. Zambezi River flow at Victoria Falls (1907­2006)........................................................................ 30 Figure 2.16. Zambezi River flow at Victoria Falls (1962­2002)........................................................................ 30 Figure 2.17. Flow into Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (1954­2000) .................................................................. 31 Figure 2.18. Temperature anomalies in southern Africa .................................................................................. 32 Figure 2.19. Temperature and precipitation changes over Africa ................................................................... 32 Figure 2.20. Global GDP trends (1970­2007)...................................................................................................... 41 Figure 2.21. GDP trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000­2007) ........................................................................... 41 Figure 3.1. Monthly water abstraction requirements in the Zambezi River Basin (m3/s) ...................... 105 Figure 3.2. Production of cereals by country (tons) ...................................................................................... 106 Figure 3.3. Production of sugar cane by country (tons) ............................................................................... 106 Figure 3.4. Price volatility of select agricultural commodities (2000­07) ...................................................110 Figure 3.5. Flow regime in Victoria Falls (m3/s)............................................................................................ 127 Figure 3.6. Map of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area............................................ 128 Figure 3.7. Contribution to GDP from tourism in 2008 ($) .......................................................................... 134 Figure 3.8. Export earnings from tourism in 2008 ($) ................................................................................... 134 Figure 3.9. Contribution to GDP from tourism in 2008 (%) ......................................................................... 134 Figure 3.10. Employment in tourism industry in 2008 ................................................................................... 134 Figure 3.11. Navigation in the Zambezi River Basin ...................................................................................... 142 Figure 3.12. Mercury concentrations in central and north Copperbelt ....................................................... 149 Figure 3.13. Estimated area covered with water hyacinth on Lake Kariba ................................................. 151 Figure 3.14. Water quality monitoring network of the Zambezi River Authority (2008) .......................... 152 Figure 4.1. Regional Economic Communities in Africa ............................................................................... 157 Figure 4.2. Institutional arrangement for water management in the riparian countries of the Zambezi River Basin ..................................................................................................................... 165 Tables Table 1.1. Precipitation data for the Zambezi River Basin .............................................................................. 4 Table 1.2. Population of the Zambezi River Basin (in thousands, 2005­06 data)......................................... 7 Table 1.3. Macroeconomic data by country (2006) ........................................................................................... 8 Table 2.1. Rainfall in the Zambezi River Basin................................................................................................ 14 Table 2.2. Runoff from the Zambezi River Basin ............................................................................................ 14 Table 2.3. Summary of major hazardous floods (1963­2008) ........................................................................ 29 Table 2.4. Impact of climate change on the Zambezi River Basin in year 2030 ......................................... 33 Table 2.5. Zambezi River Basin Ecoregions ..................................................................................................... 35 Table 2.6. Priority classification system for conservation action, based on biological distinctiveness and conservation status ......................................................................................... 35 Table 2.7. Macroeconomic data of Zambezi riparian countries (2006) ........................................................ 42 Table 2.8. GDP change in constant prices (2007­2014)................................................................................... 42 vi Contents Table 2.9. Select human development indicators ........................................................................................... 47 Table 2.10. Macroeconomic overview ................................................................................................................ 48 Table 2.11. Mean annual household expenditure by region in Malawi (2005)............................................. 51 Table 2.12. Poverty in select provinces and in rural/urban areas of Mozambique (1996­97 and 2002­03) ....................................................................................................................... 51 Table 2.13. Prevalence in Malawi of stunting, underweight, and wasting among children aged six to 59 months (2005) ............................................................................................................ 58 Table 3.1. SAPP regional network generation capacity (2007) ..................................................................... 63 Table 3.2. World Bank Regional Integration Assistance Strategy: Africa Power Sector (2008) ................ 64 Table 3.3. Existing hydropower in the Zambezi River Basin ........................................................................ 65 Table 3.4. Potential hydropower in the Zambezi River Basin (by country) ................................................ 67 Table 3.5. Future hydropower projects in the Zambezi River Basin (included in MSIOA)...................... 72 Table 3.6. Hydropower ­ strengths and challenges........................................................................................ 73 Table 3.7. Hydropower ­ opportunities and constraints ............................................................................... 75 Table 3.8. Batoka Gorge ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation ...................................................................... 76 Table 3.9. Batoka Gorge ­ turbine characteristics .......................................................................................... 76 Table 3.10. Batoka Gorge ­ tailwater rating ....................................................................................................... 76 Table 3.11. Kariba ­ storage, area, outlet, elevation and peak power ........................................................... 77 Table 3.12. Lake Kariba ­ flood rule curve......................................................................................................... 77 Table 3.13. Kariba HPP ­ turbine characteristics .............................................................................................. 78 Table 3.14. Lake Kariba ­ tailwater rating ......................................................................................................... 78 Table 3.15. Lake Kariba future HPP ­ storage, area, outlet, elevation and peak power ............................ 78 Table 3.16. Kariba future HPP ­ characteristics ................................................................................................ 79 Table 3.17. Itezhi Tezhi Reservoir ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation ....................................................... 79 Table 3.18. Itezhi Tezhi reservoir ­ flood rule curve......................................................................................... 79 Table 3.19. Itezhi Tezhi future HPP ­ characteristics........................................................................................ 80 Table 3.20. Itezhi Tezhi future HPP ­ tailwater rating ..................................................................................... 80 Table 3.21. Kafue Flats ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation .......................................................................... 81 Table 3.22. Kafue Gorge Upper Reservoir ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation .......................................... 81 Table 3.23. Kafue Gorge Upper Reservoir ­ flood rule curve ......................................................................... 82 Table 3.24. Kafue Gorge Upper HPP ­ characteristics ..................................................................................... 82 Table 3.25. Kafue Gorge Upper HPP ­ tailwater rating ................................................................................... 82 Table 3.26. Kafue Gorge Lower Reservoir ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation .......................................... 83 Table 3.27. Kafue Gorge Lower ­ tailwater rating ............................................................................................ 83 Table 3.28. Cahora Bassa HPP ­ storage, area, discharge, outlet, elevation and peak power .................... 84 Table 3.29. Cahora Bassa Reservoir ­ upper rule curve ................................................................................... 84 Table 3.30. Cahora Bassa HPP ­ characteristics ................................................................................................ 85 Table 3.31. Cahora Bassa HPP ­ tailwater rating .............................................................................................. 85 Table 3.32. Cahora Bassa with HCB HPP­ storage, area, discharge, outlet, elevation and peak power ................................................................................................................................. 86 Table 3.33. Cahora Bassa with HCB HPP ­ characteristics.............................................................................. 86 Table 3.34. Mphanda Nkuwa ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation .............................................................. 86 Table 3.35. Mphanda Nkuwa HPP ­ characteristics ........................................................................................ 87 Table 3.36. Rumakali HPP ­ storage, area and elevation................................................................................. 87 Table 3.37. Rumakali HPP ­ characteristics ....................................................................................................... 87 Table 3.38. Songwe I Upper Reservoir ­ storage, area and elevation ........................................................... 88 Table 3.39. Songwe I Upper Reservoir ­ rule curve ......................................................................................... 88 Table 3.40. Songwe I HPP ­ characteristics........................................................................................................ 89 vii The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.41. Songwe II Middle Reservoir ­ storage, area and outlet .............................................................. 89 Table 3.42. Songwe II Middle Reservoir ­ rule curve....................................................................................... 90 Table 3.43. Songwe II HPP ­ characteristics ...................................................................................................... 90 Table 3.44. Songwe III Lower Reservoir ­ storage, area and elevation ........................................................ 91 Table 3.45. Songwe III Lower Reservoir ­ rule curve ....................................................................................... 91 Table 3.46. Songwe III HPP ­ characteristics ..................................................................................................... 92 Table 3.47. Lower Fufu HPP ­ characteristics ................................................................................................... 92 Table 3.48. Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa and Liwonde .................................................................................. 92 Table 3.49. Kholombidzo Reservoir and HPP ­ storage, area, outflow, elevation and peak power ......... 93 Table 3.50. Kholombidzo HPP ­ characteristics ................................................................................................ 93 Table 3.51. Kholombidzo HPP ­ tailwater rating ............................................................................................. 93 Table 3.52. Nkula Falls HPP ­ characteristics .................................................................................................... 94 Table 3.53. Tedzani HPP­ characteristics ........................................................................................................... 94 Table 3.54. Kapichira HPP ­ characteristics ....................................................................................................... 94 Table 3.55. Agriculture projects with Bankable Investment Project Profiles in the Zambezi River Basin ......................................................................................................................... 95 Table 3.56. Rural population active in agriculture in Zambezi riparian countries ...................................... 97 Table 3.57. Zambezi River Basin's agricultural GDP ($ billion) ..................................................................... 98 Table 3.58. National and regional policy documents for agriculture and irrigation development........... 99 Table 3.59. Cultivated area in the Zambezi River Basin (hectares) .............................................................. 100 Table 3.60. Irrigation areas in the Zambezi River Basin (hectares/subbasin) ............................................ 101 Table 3.61. Irrigation areas in the Zambezi River Basin (hectares/country) .............................................. 101 Table 3.62. Irrigated crops in the Zambezi River Basin by subbasin (hectares) ......................................... 102 Table 3.63. Irrigated crops in the Zambezi River Basin by country (hectares) ........................................... 103 Table 3.64. Annual water abstraction requirements for irrigation in the Zambezi River Basin by subbasin (1,000 m3) .......................................................................................................................... 104 Table 3.65. Annual water abstraction requirements for irrigation in the Zambezi River Basin by country (1,000 m3)....................................................................................................................... 104 Table 3.66. Main recession irrigation areas in the Zambezi River Basin (hectares) ................................... 104 Table 3.67. Comparison of equipped irrigation areas (MSIOA and ZACPRO 1998 studies) ................... 105 Table 3.68. Cereal import requirement (1,000 tons) ........................................................................................ 107 Table 3.69. Maize and paddy rice yields by country in the Zambezi River Basin (tons/hectare) ........... 107 Table 3.70. Irrigation ­ strengths and challenges ............................................................................................ 108 Table 3.71. Irrigation sector ­ challenges ..........................................................................................................112 Table 3.72. Identified projects (additional irrigation) areas in the Zambezi River Basin (ha/subbasin).113 Table 3.73. Identified projects (additional irrigation) areas in the Zambezi River Basin (ha/country)...113 Table 3.74. Major wetlands and subsistence use of the Zambezi River Basin .............................................114 Table 3.75. Estimated area of the Barotse Floodplain extended wetlands (ha) ...........................................115 Table 3.76. Approximate extent of different habitat types within the Barotse Floodplain ........................115 Table 3.77. Wetland activities linked to Barotse Floodplain...........................................................................116 Table 3.78. Current annual financial and economic direct use for the Barotse Floodplain ($, gross and net values) ..................................................................................................................116 Table 3.79. Minimum value of the indirect uses of the Barotse Floodplain (estimated net present value of ecosystem services) ...................................................................117 Table 3.80. Approximate study area of different habitat types within the Eastern Chobe-Caprivi Wetlands..................................................................................................................117 Table 3.81. Wetland activities linked to the Eastern Chobe-Caprivi Wetlands annual flood pulse .........119 Table 3.82. Current annual financial and economic direct use values for the Eastern viii Contents Chobe-Caprivi Wetlands ($, net and gross) ..................................................................................119 Table 3.83. Minimum value of the indirect uses of the Eastern Chobe-Caprivi Wetlands (estimated net present value of ecosystem services) .................................................................. 120 Table 3.84. Direct use value of the Kafue Flats Wetlands (rapid desktop approach) ................................ 120 Table 3.85. Estimated area of the Lower Shire Wetlands ............................................................................... 121 Table 3.86. Approximate area of different habitat types within the Lower Shire Wetlands..................... 121 Table 3.87. Wetland activities linked to Lower Shire Wetlands annual flood pulse .................................. 122 Table 3.88. Current annual financial and economic direct use values for the Lower Shire Wetlands ($ gross and net) ............................................................................................................................... 122 Table 3.89. Minimum value of major indirect uses of the Lower Shire Wetlands (estimated net present value of ecosystems services) ................................................................ 123 Table 3.90. Direct use value of the Luangwa Wetlands (rapid desktop approach) ................................... 123 Table 3.91. Approximate area of different habitat types within the Zambezi Delta.................................. 123 Table 3.92. Summary of available information on wetland activities in the Zambezi Delta.................... 124 Table 3.93. Current annual financial and economic direct use values for the Zambezi Delta ($, gross and net) .............................................................................................................................. 125 Table 3.94. Minimum value of the indirect uses of the Zambezi Delta (estimated net present value of ecosystems services)........................................................................................... 125 Table 3.95. Use values in Zambezi System Wetlands (summary of direct use values for six wetlands in the Zambezi River system; and indirect use and existence values for four wetlands) ..... 126 Table 3.96. Tourism ­ strengths and challenges .............................................................................................. 131 Table 3.97. Tourism ­ opportunities and constraints ..................................................................................... 132 Table 3.98. Summary of tourism arrivals in riparian countries (World Tourism Organization 2004) .... 133 Table 3.99. Economic role of tourism ............................................................................................................... 133 Table 3.100. Fisheries and Aquaculture ­ strengths and challenges .............................................................. 136 Table 3.101. Fisheries and Aquaculture ­ opportunities and constraints .................................................... 137 Table 3.102. Navigation ­ strengths and challenges ........................................................................................ 140 Table 3.103. Navigation ­ opportunities and constraints ................................................................................ 141 Table 3.104. Rural and urban water use (2005­2006) ....................................................................................... 143 Table 3.105. Industrial water use by main urban areas (m3/day) .................................................................. 143 Table 3.106. Urban cities and towns in the Zambezi River Basin................................................................... 146 Table 3.107. Water quality in the Kafue River Catchment ............................................................................... 147 Table 3.108. Contamination in the Copperbelt.................................................................................................. 149 Table 3.109. Industrial waste in the Zambezi River Basin ............................................................................... 150 Table 3.110. Water and effluent quality in some basin countries ................................................................... 153 Table 4.1. ZAMCOM ­ recommendations for improvement (ZAMSTRAT) ............................................ 161 Table 4.2. Interim ZAMCOM objectives ........................................................................................................ 163 ix Currency Equivalents and Units Currency Equivalents Against U.S. dollar Angolan Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe new kwanza pula Euro kwacha metical dollar schilling kwacha dollar Kz P MK Mt N$ T Sh K Z$ 2000 5.94 5.09 1.08 47.10 15.41 6.95 799.27 2,830.00 44.40 2001 11.51 5.72 1.12 70.03 20.33 8.62 876.59 2,845.37 55.26 2002 32.41 6.26 1.06 76.24 23.24 10.52 965.27 4,360.81 55.29 2003 57.65 4.91 0.89 95.24 23.31 7.57 1,036.79 4,841.94 577.19 2004 57.65 4.68 0.80 106.74 22.03 6.46 1,088.20 4,750.53 4,499.18 2005 74.90 5.11 0.80 116.84 22.85 6.36 1,125.36 4,432.60 21,566.90 2006 86.85 5.83 0.80 135.54 25.93 6.77 1,251.28 3,586.09 58,289.86 2007 77.38 6.15 0.73 139.72 25.56 7.06 1,241.24 3,996.41 9,296.66 2008 74.97 6.84 0.68 140.91 24.14 8.25 1,199.75 3,746.63 2,638,293,338 2009 77.97 7.14 0.72 141.75 26.87 8.43 1,324.34 5,049.15 21,830,975.04 Units 1 km3 = 1,000 hm3 = 1 billion m3 1 m3/s = 31.54 hm3/year = 0.033 km3/year 1 l/s/ha = 86.4 m3/day/ha = 8.6 mm/day 1 gigawatt hour (GWh) = 1,000 MWh = 1,000,000 KWh = 1,000,000,000 Wh 1 km2 = 100 ha Unless otherwise specified, the symbol $ refers to U.S. dollars. x Acknowledgments This report provides a summary of the series of reports development partners. Their participation and input and documents prepared to assess the water resources at the regional meeting in Gaborone, Botswana in July development options and benefits of cooperation among 2009, and at the eight national consultation workshops the riparian countries in the Zambezi River Basin. The held between September and December 2009 is much effort was led by a Bank Team consisting of Vahid Ala- appreciated. The financial contribution and support vian (Team Leader), Marcus Wishart, Louise Croneborg, from the Swedish International Development Coopera- Rimma Dankova, K. Anna Kim, and Lucson Pierre- tion Agency (Sida) and the Government of Norway are Charles. The initial Team Leader for this work was Len acknowledged with appreciation. Abrams, now retired. The Multi-Sector Investment Op- The World Bank peer reviewers for this work in- portunities Analysis is based on a series of reports and cluded Stephen Mink, Glenn Morgan, Daryl Fields, and model simulations prepared by a consortium of BRLi and Guy Alaerts. Francois Onimus also provided written Niras. The consultants served as partners and members comments. Their constructive inputs are very much of the team during the course of this work. appreciated. The team benefitted from the guidance of The Team gratefully acknowledges the contributions Rick Scobey, Acting Director for Regional Integration, by representatives of the riparian countries of the Zam- Inger Andersen, Director for Sustainable Development, bezi River Basin, the Southern Africa Development Com- and Ashok K. Subramanian, Sector Manager for Water munity (SADC) Water Division, and other international Resources Management, Africa Region. xi Abbreviations and Acronyms AAP Africa Action Plan ACP Agricultural Commercialization Program (Zambia) AF artificial flooding AMD acid mine drainage AMU Arab Maghreb Union ARA Administração Regional de Águas (Regional Water Administrations, Mozambique) ASDP Agricultural Sector Development Program (Tanzania) ASDS Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (Tanzania) AU African Union BIPP bankable investment project profile BOD biological oxygen demand BOS Bureau of Standards BPC Botswana Power Corporation CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program CBA cost benefit analysis CEC Copperbelt Energy Corporation PLC CEMAC Central African Economic and Monetary Community CEN-SAD Community of Sahel-Saharan States CEPGL Economic Community of the Great Lakes Countries COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CPC Climate Prediction Center CPFAT Centro Provincial de Formação Agrária de Tete (Mozambique) CRU Climate Research Unit CS current situation CSCO current situation with coordinated operation CSNC current situation without coordinated operation CVRD Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (Brazil) DMC Drought Monitoring Center DMU Disaster Management Unit DNA Direcção Nacional de Águas (National Directorate of Water, Mozambique) DNSA Direcção Nacional de Extensão Agrária (National Directorate of Agrarian Services, Mozambique) DPA Provincial Directorate of Water DRC Democratic Republic of Congo DSS decision support system DWA Department of Water Affairs DWAF Department of Water Affairs and Forestry EAC East African Community ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States ECMWF European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ECP Estratégia de Combate à Pobreza (Poverty Reduction Strategy, Angola) ECZ Environmental Council of Zambia EdM Electricidade de Moçambique (Electricity of Mozambique, Mozambique) EIA Environmental Impact Assessment xiii The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis EIRR economic internal rate of return ENE Empresa Nacional de Electricidad (National Electricity Company, Angola) ESCOM Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ETo reference evapotranspiration ETP evapotranspiration EU European Union EUMETSAT European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites EUS epizootic ulcerative syndrome FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FSL full supply level GDP gross domestic product GMA Game Management Area GPZ Gabinete do Plano de Desenvolvimento da Região do Zambeze (Office of Development Planning for the Zambezi Region, Mozambique) GWh gigawatt hour ha hectare HCB HidroEléctrica de Cahora Bassa (Cahora Bassa Hydroelectrics, Mozambique) HEC Hydrologic Engineering Center HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative HLI high-level irrigation HLIC HLI with cooperation hm3 Cubic hectometer HPP hydropower plant HRWL high reservoir water level HYCOS hydrological cycle observation system I&C information and communication IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICM Integrated Committee of Ministers ICTs information and communication technologies IDF irrigation development fund IGAD Inter-Governmental Authority on Development IMF International Monetary Fund INAM Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (National Institute of Meteorology, Mozambique) IOC Indian Ocean Commission IP identified project (for irrigation) IPC IP with cooperation IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRR internal rate of return ITT Itezhi Tezhi Dam IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature IWRM integrated water resources management JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JOTC Joint Operation Technical Committee KAZA TFCA Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area kg/ha kilogram per hectare KGL Kafue Gorge Lower Dam KGU Kafue Gorge Upper Dam km3 cubic kilometers KWh kilowatt hour l/s liters per second LEC Lesotho Electricity Corporation LRRP Land Reform and Resettlement Program (Zimbabwe) LRWL low reservoir water level LSL low supply level m3/s cubic meters per second MACO Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (Zambia) MAP mean annual precipitation MAWF Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry xiv Abbreviations and Acronyms MASL minimum active storage level MDG Millennium Development Goal MDRI Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative MEA Ministry of Energy and Water MERP Millennium Economic Recovery Program (Zimbabwe) MFL minimum flow level mg/l milligrams per liter MKUKUTA Poverty Reduction Strategy for Mainland Tanzania (kiswahili acronym) mm/yr millimeters per year MMEWR Ministry of Minerals, Energy and Water Resources MOL minimum operating level MOPH Ministry of Public Works and Housing MoU memorandum of understanding MPRSP Malawi Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper MRU Mano River Union MSIOA Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis MW megawatt MWh megawatt hour NAMPAADD National Master Plan for Arable Agriculture and Dairy Development (Botswana) NAP national agriculture policy NDMO National Disaster Management Office NDP(s) national development plan(s) NDP2 National Development Plan 2 NEPAD New Partnership for Africa's Development NERP National Economic Revival Program (Zimbabwe) NIP national irrigation plan NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NMTIPs national medium-term investment programs NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPV net present value NSC north­south carrier NSC National Steering Committee NSGRP National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty (Tanzania) NWSDS National Water Sector Development Strategy (Tanzania) ODA official development assistance OWE open water evaporation PAEI Política Agrária e Estratégias de Implementação (Agriculture Policy and Implementation Strategy, Mozambique) PAR population at risk PARPA Plano de Acção para a Redução da Pobreza Absoluta (Poverty Reduction Support Strategy, Mozambique) PARPA II Plano de Acção para a Redução da Pobreza Absoluta II (2nd Poverty Reduction Support Strategy, Mozambique) PASS II Poverty Assessment Study Survey II PFM public financial management PPEI Política Pesqueira e Estratégias de Implementação (Fishery Policy and Implementation Strategy, Mozambique) ppm parts per million PPP purchasing power parity ProAgri Promoção de Desenvolvimento Agrário (National Agricultural Development Program, Mozambique) PRSP poverty reduction strategy paper PSIP program and system information protocol RBO river basin organization RBZ Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe RCC roller-compacted concrete REC regional economic communities RIAS Regional Integration Assistance Strategy R-o-R run-of-the-river RSA Republic of South Africa RSAP Regional Strategic Action Plan SACU Southern African Customs Union SADC Southern African Development Community SADC-WD SADC Water Division xv The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis SAPP Southern African Power Pool SARCOF Southern African Climate Outlook Forum SEA strategic environmental assessment SEB Swaziland Electricity Board SEDAC Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency SIGFE Sistema Integrado de Gestão Financeira do Estado (Integrated Financial Management System, Angola) SMEC Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation SNEL Société Nationale d'Électricité (National Electricity Company, Democratic Republic of Congo) SSIDS small-scale irrigation development study SWOT strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats t/yr tons/year TANESCO Tanzania Electric Supply Company TVA Tennessee Valley Authority (United States) TWL tail water level UK United Kingdom UN/ISDR United Nations Inter Agency International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNDP United Nations Development Program UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization US$ United States dollar USAID United States Agency for International Development USGS U.S. Geological Survey VSAM Visão do Sector Agrário em Moçambique (Mozambique) WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WAP Water Apportionment Board WASP Web Analytics Solution Profiler WFP World Food Program WHO World Health Organization WMO World Meteorological Organization WRC Water Resources Commission WTO World Trade Organization WTTC World Travel and Tourism Council ZACBASE Zambezi River database ZACPLAN Action Plan for the Environmentally Sound Management of the Common Zambezi River System ZACPRO Zambezi Action Project ZAMCOM Zambezi River Watercourse Commission ZAMFUND Zambezi Trust Fund ZAMSEC ZAMCOM Secretariat ZAMSTRAT Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin ZAMTEC ZAMCOM Technical Committee ZAMWIS Zambezi Water Information System ZAPF Zimbabwe's Agriculture Policy Framework ZCCM Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines Ltd ZESA Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority ZESCO Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation ZINWA Zimbabwe National Water Authority ZRA Zambezi River Authority ZRB Zambezi River Basin ZVAC Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee xvi 1 The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context The Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) is one of the most diverse and valu- able natural resources in Africa. Its waters are critical to sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction in the region. In addition to meeting the basic needs of some 30 million people and sustaining a rich and diverse natural environment, the river plays a central role in the economies of the eight riparian countries--Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. It provides important environmental goods and services to the region and is essential to regional food security and hydropower production. Because the Zambezi River Basin is characterized by extreme climatic variability, the River and its tributaries are subject to a cycle of floods and droughts that have devastating effects on the people and econo- mies of the region, especially the poorest members of the population. 1.1 MoTivaTionForThisanalysis Despite the regional importance of the ZRB, few improvements have been made in the management of its water resources over the past 30 years. Differences in post-independence development strategies and in the political economy of the riparian countries, as well as the diverse physical characteristics of the Basin, have led to approaches to water resources development that have remained primarily unilateral. Better management and cooperative development of the Basin's water resources could significantly increase agricultural yields, hy- dropower outputs, and economic opportunities. Collaboration has the potential to increase the efficiency of water use, strengthen envi- ronmental sustainability, improve regulation of the demands made on natural resources, and enable greater mitigation of the impact of droughts and floods. Seen in this light, cooperative river basin development and management not only provide a mechanism for increasing the productivity and sustainability of the river system, but also provide a potential platform for accelerated regional economic growth, cooperation, and stability within the wider Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). 1 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis The World Bank, other international finan- be expected from cooperative as opposed to cial institutions and development partners have unilateral development of irrigation schemes? a diverse portfolio of investments and support · Flood management, particularly in the Lower Zam- programs in the countries that share the ZRB. Still bezi and the Zambezi Delta. What options exist to lacking, however, is a sound analytical foundation permit partial restoration of natural floods and for a coordinated strategy that can optimize the Ba- to reduce flood risks downstream from Cahora sin's investment potential and promote cooperative Bassa Dam? How would those options affect the development in support of sustainable economic use of the existing and potential hydropower and growth and poverty alleviation. irrigation infrastructure on the Zambezi River? The overall objective of the Zambezi River Multi- · Effects of other projects using the waters of the Sector Investment Opportunity Analysis (MSIOA) Zambezi River (e.g., transfers out of the Basin is to illustrate the benefits of cooperation among the for industrial uses). How might these projects riparian countries in the ZRB through a multi-sectoral affect the environment (wetlands), hydropower, economic evaluation of water resources develop- irrigation, and tourism? ment, management options and scenarios--from both national and basin-wide perspectives. The Within the context of an integrated approach analytical framework was designed in consultation to the development and management of water with the riparian countries, SADC Water Division resources, all water-related sectors are important. (SADC-WD) and development partners in line with This analysis, however, focuses on hydropower and the Zambezi Action Plan Project 6, Phase II (ZACPRO irrigation because of their special potential to stimu- 6.2). It is hoped that the findings, together with the late growth in the economies of the region. Other Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy demands for water--for potable water, environmen- and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Ba- tal sustainability, tourism, fisheries, and navigation, sin that was developed under ZACPRO 6.2 (2008), for example--are assumed as givens. Limitations of would contribute to development, environmental assigning economic value to non-economic water sustainability, and poverty alleviation in the region. users, such as ecosystems, are noted. To the degree In this analysis, the following development paths allowed by the available, published information, they have been assessed through a series of scenarios. are incorporated into the analysis as non-negotiable. The initial findings and the various drafts of · Coordinated operation of existing hydropower facili- this analysis were discussed at a regional workshop ties, either basin-wide or in clusters. By how much and at individual country consultations with all could hydropower generation increase if existing riparian countries. Also involved in these consulta- projects were coordinated? What is the potential tions were SADC, the international development impact of coordination on other water users? partners active in the Basin, and other interested · Development of the hydropower sector as envisioned parties. The final draft version was shared with in plans for the Southern African Power Pool the riparian countries as well for comments before (SAPP). What is the development potential of finalization. The Swedish International Develop- the hydropower sector? How would its expan- ment Cooperation Agency and the Government of sion affect the environment (wetlands in par- Norway provided financial support. ticular), irrigation, tourism, and other sectors? This report consists of four volumes: What gains could be expected from the coordi- nated operation of new hydropower facilities? Volume 1: Summary Report · Development of the irrigation sector through uni- Volume 2: Basin Development Scenarios lateral or cooperative implementation of projects Volume 3: State of the Basin identified by the riparian countries. How might Volume 4: Modeling, Analysis, and Input Data the development of irrigation affect the envi- ronment (wetlands), hydropower, tourism, and This section (1.1­1.5) appears as an introduction other sectors? What incremental gain could to all four volumes. 2 The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context 1.2 suMMaryoFFindings the Basin) would not have a significant effect on productive (economic) use of the water in the system The ZRB and its rich resources present ample at this time. But they might affect other sectors and opportunities for sustainable, cooperative invest- topics, such as tourism and the environment, espe- ment in hydropower and irrigated agriculture. cially during periods of low flow. A more detailed With cooperation and coordinated operation of the study is warranted. existing hydropower facilities found in the Basin, For the Lower Zambezi, restoration of natural firm energy generation can potentially increase by flooding, for beneficial uses in the Delta, including seven percent, adding a value of $585 million over a fisheries, agriculture, environmental uses and bet- 30-year period with essentially no major infrastruc- ter flood protection, could be assured by modify- ture investment. ing reservoir operating guidelines at Cahora Bassa Development of the hydropower sector accord- Dam. Depending on the natural flooding scenario ing to the generation plan of the SAPP (NEXANT selected, these changes could cause significant re- 2007) would require an investment of $10.7 billion duction in hydropower production (between three over an estimated 15 years. That degree of develop- percent and 33 percent for the Cahora Bassa Dam ment would result in estimated firm energy produc- and between four percent and 34 percent for the tion of approximately 35,300 GWh/year and average planned Mphanda Nkuwa Dam). More detailed energy production of approximately 60,000 GWh/ studies are warranted. year, thereby meeting all or most of the estimated Based on the findings for Scenario 8, which as- 48,000 GWh/year demand of the riparian countries. sumes full cooperation of the riparian countries, a With the SAPP plan in place, coordinated operation reasonable balance between hydropower and irriga- of the system of hydropower facilities can provide an tion investment could result in firm energy genera- additional 23 percent generation over uncoordinated tion of some 30,000 GWh/year and 774,000 hectares (unilateral) operation. The value of cooperative gen- of irrigated land. Those goals could be achieved eration therefore appears to be significant. while providing a level of flood protection and part Implementation of all presently identified na- restoration of natural floods in the Lower Zambezi. tional irrigation projects would expand the equipped The riparian countries together with their de- area by some 184 percent (including double crop- velopment partners may wish to act on the analysis ping in some areas) for a total required investment presented here by pursuing several steps, described of around $2.5 billion. However, this degree of in detail at the end of volume 1: development of the irrigation sector, without fur- ther development of hydropower, would reduce · Explore and exploit the benefits of cooperative hydropower generation of firm energy by 21 percent investments and coordinated operations; and of average energy by nine percent. If identified · Strengthen the knowledge base and the regional irrigation projects were developed alongside current capacity for river basin modeling and planning; SAPP plans, the resulting reduction in generation · Improve the hydrometeorological data system; would be about eight percent for firm energy and · Conduct studies on selected topics, including four percent for average energy. those mentioned above; and, Cooperative irrigation development (such as · Build institutional capacity for better manage- moving approximately 30,000 hectares of planned ment of water resources. large irrigation infrastructure downstream) could increase firm energy generation by two percent, with a net present value of $140 million. But com- 1.3 basiccharacTerisTicsoF plexities associated with food security and self-suf- TheZaMbeZiriverbasin ficiency warrant closer examination of this scenario. Other water-using projects (such as transfers The Zambezi River lies within the fourth-largest out of the Basin and for other industrial uses within basin in Africa after the Congo, Nile, and Niger 3 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis river basins. Covering 1.37 million km2, the Zambezi of the last remaining protected areas extensive River has its source in Zambia, 1,450 meters above enough to support large populations of large sea level. The main stem then flows southwest mammals. into Angola, turns south, enters Zambia again, · The Gorongosa/Cheringoma/Zambezi Delta area of and passes through the Eastern Caprivi Strip in central Mozambique, which covers an area of Namibia and northern Botswana. The Zambezi enormous habitat diversity not found in such River then flows through Mosi-oa-Tunya (Victoria close proximity elsewhere on the continent. Falls), shared by Zambia and Zimbabwe, before entering Lake Kariba, which masses behind Kariba The hydrology of the ZRB is not uniform, Dam, built in 1958. A short distance downstream with generally high rainfall in the north and lower from Kariba Dam, the Zambezi River is joined by rainfall in the south (table 1.1). In some areas in the the Kafue River, a major tributary, which rises in Upper Zambezi and around Lake Malawi/Niassa/ northern Zambia. The Kafue River flows through Nyasa, rainfall can be as much as 1,400 mm/year, the Copperbelt of Zambia into the reservoir behind while in the southern part of Zimbabwe it can be the Itezhi Tezhi Dam (ITT), built in 1976. From as little as 500 mm/year. there, the Kafue River enters the Kafue Flats and The mean annual discharge at the outlet of the then flows through a series of steep gorges, the site Zambezi River is 4,134 m3/s or around 130 km3/year of the Kafue Gorge Upper (KGU) hydroelectric (figure 1.2). Due to the rainfall distribution, north- scheme, commissioned in 1979. Below the Kafue ern tributaries contribute much more water than River confluence, the Zambezi River pools behind southern ones. For example, the northern highlands Cahora Bassa Dam in Mozambique, built in 1974. catchment of the Upper Zambezi subbasin contrib- Some distance downstream, the Zambezi River is utes 25 percent, Kafue River nine percent, Luangwa joined by the Shire River, which flows out of Lake River 13 percent, and Shire River 12 percent--for a Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa to the north. Lake Malawi/ total of 60 percent of the Zambezi River discharge. Niassa/Nyasa, which covers an area of 28,000 km2, is the third-largest freshwater lake in Africa. From the confluence, the Zambezi River travels some Table 1.1. Precipitation data for the 150 km, part of which is the Zambezi Delta, before Zambezi River Basin entering the Indian Ocean. The basin of the Zambezi River is generally de- Mean annual Subbasin No. precipitation (mm) scribed in terms of 13 subbasins representing major Kabompo 13 1,211 tributaries and segments (see map in figure 1.1). From a continental perspective, the ZRB con- Upper Zambezi 12 1,225 tains four important areas of biodiversity: Lungúe Bungo 11 1,103 Luanginga 10 958 · Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, a region of impor- Barotse 9 810 tance to global conservation because of the Cuando/Chobe 8 797 evolutionary radiation of fish groups and other Kafue 7 1,042 aquatic species. Kariba 6 701 · The swamps, floodplains, and woodlands of the Luangwa 5 1,021 paleo-Upper Zambezi in Zambia and northern Mupata 4 813 Botswana, including the areas of Barotseland, Busanga and Kafue, which along with the Ban- Shire River and Lake Malawi/ 3 1,125 Niassa/Nyasa gweulu are thought to be areas of evolutionary radiation for groups as disparate as Reduncine Tete 2 887 antelope, suffrutices, and bulbous plants. Zambezi Delta 1 1,060 · The Middle Zambezi Valley in northern Zimbabwe Zambezi River Basin, mean 956 and the Luangwa Valley in eastern Zambia, two Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007. 4 Figure 1.1. The Zambezi River Basin and its 13 subbasins IBRD 37633R Mbeya Lake ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN Tanganyika Lake RUMAKALI Mweru EXISTING HYDROPOWER PLANTS T A N Z A N I A Saurimo CAHORA BASSA 2,075 MW DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC SONGWE I, II & III KARIBA 1,470 MW KAFUE GORGE UPPER 990 MW OF CONGO Kasama NKULA FALLS 124 MW AN G OL A LOWER FUFU Songea VICTORIA FALLS 108 MW TEDZANI 90 MW ZAMBIA Mansa a n gwa KAPICHIRA I 64 MW Mzuzu Lu ezi Lake PROJECTED HYDROPOWER PLANTS mb Lubumbashi Bangweulu Luena Za MPHANDA NKUWA* 2,000 MW BATOKA GORGE 1,600 MW 12 Solwezi 3 KAFUE GORGE LOWER** 600 MW Kafu e 5 Lake KHOLOMBIZO 240 MW 13 Lun Malawi/ SONGWE I, II & III 340 MW gú Lush Niassa/ 11 e Ndola Bu Nyasa iwa ng s RUMAKALI 256 MW Msan o po hi di r Lichinga e m ga 7 n LOWER FUFU 100 MW bo Lu Chipata Ka HYDROPOWER PLANT EXTENSIONS e ji a MA LAWI Mu s o n d w Busanga Lukanga gw hi Swamp Swamp an as HCB NORTH BANK 850 MW LILONGWE MOZAMBIQUE Lu k us 360 MW Cu KARIBA NORTH Lu ue Kaf an Kabwe d KARIBA SOUTH 300 MW o 10 Barotse Lunsemfwa Luangin ga Floodplain embeshi ITEZHI TEZHI 120 MW Menongue Mw HCB ir e KAPICHIRA II 64 MW Sh NORTH BANK Mongu Lake KHOLOMBIDZO Kafue Flats LUSAKA 4 Cahora Bassa CAHORA BASSA 5 Luena NKULA FALLS ZAMBEZI SUB-BASIN BOUNDARIES Flats TEDZANI ITEZHI TEZHI Blantyre 9 KAFUE GORGE UPPER KAFUE GORGE LOWER MAIN PLANNED WATER WITHDRAWALS Luiana MPHANDA NKUWA KAPICHIRA I KAPICHIRA II NATIONAL CAPITALS KARIBA Tete KARIBA NORTH Z am zoe Elephant MAJOR CITIES be KARIBA SOUTH Ma Marsh z Choma i K i INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES w an 2 Lupata MAAMBA Lake MOATIZE Gorge yan do COAL MINE Kariba BENGA Hun 8 Caprivi-Chobe COAL MINE Lower Shire Hydropower capacity estimates are based on the Southern Africa Power Pool, AND PLANT Wetlands Katima Za Nexant (2007) Study and updated as of 2010. Livingstone Quelimane Mulilo m b * The estimate for Mphanda Nkuwa has been increased to 2,000 MW HARARE Caia ez ** The estimates for Kafue Gorge Lower are 600 MW with the potential Rundu ati Kasane 6 i ny for an additional bay of 150 MW Li VICTORIA FALLS BATOKA GORGE 1 Umnia a Sh ti anga 0 25 50 100 200 Kilometers ni elt GOKWÉ D COAL FIRED Mutare zi POWER PLANT Chimoio be 0 50 100 150 Miles Tsumeb Za m Gweru G wai Beira N A M I B I A Maun CHOBE/ ZAMBEZI Bulawayo ZIMBABWE I N D I AN TRANSFER B O T S WA N A OC E AN ZAMBEZI RIVER SHIRE RIVER & BASIN ZAMBEZI DELTA TETE LAKE MALAWI/NIASSA/NYASA MUPATA LUANGWA KARIBA KAFUE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) CURRENT SITUATION (CS) 7,664 6,998 52,572 35,159 60,960 42,416 21,790 14,200 17,794 10,100 44,531 28,186 46,528 40,158 IDENTIFIED PROJECTS (IP) 106,774 84,053 108,193 65,495 162,126 101,927 30,356 20,060 28,857 16,230 228,919 147,778 67,048 53,768 UPPER LIMIT POTENTIAL (HLI) 231,774 184,053 508,193 265,495 766,755 451,927 30,356 20,060 73,814 41,230 948,825 591,578 104,448 78,768 8 CUANDO/CHOBE 9 BAROTSE 10 LUANGINGA 11 LUNGÚE BUNGO 12 UPPER ZAMBEZI 13 KABOMPO This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA IRRIGATED AREA EQUIPPED AREA World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) (ha/year) (ha) any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the CURRENT SITUATION (CS) 765 620 340 200 1,000 750 1,250 1,000 3,250 2,500 595 350 legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or IDENTIFIED PROJECTS (IP) 1,215 920 12,753 7,208 6,000 5,750 1,875 1,500 8,250 7,500 11,314 6,650 acceptance of such boundaries. UPPER LIMIT POTENTIAL (HLI) 19,215 15,920 30,466 17,208 18,500 15,750 14,375 11,500 20,750 17,500 28,328 16,650 NOVEMBER 2010 The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 1.2. Schematic of the Zambezi River with deregulated mean annual discharge (m3/s) and runoff (mm) Zambezi River Sub River Discharge Runoff Catchment mean annual river Sub River Discharge Runoff Catchment basin BV bank Tributary (m3/s) (mm) area (km2) flow (m3/s) basin BV bank Tributary (m3/s) (mm) area (km2) Kabompo 273 13 13-1 left/right Kabompo 273.0 109.4 78,683 Subtotal 273.0 109.4 78,683 Upper Zambezi 12 12-1 left/right Zambezi 742 256.2 91,317 1,015 Subtotal 742 256.2 91,317 Lungúe Bungo 11 11-1 left/right Lungúe Bungo 114 80.8 44,368 1,129 Subtotal 114 80.8 44,368 Luanginga 10 10-1 left/right Luanginga 69.4 61.0 35,893 1,198 Subtotal 69.4 61.0 35,893 Kwando/Chobe 8 8-1 left Kwando 32.5 9.0 113,393 8-2 left/right Chobe ­32.5 ­28.8 35,601 1,198 Subtotal 0.0 0.0 148,994 Barotse 9 9-1 left/right Zambezi ­17.6 ­4.8 115,753 1,180 Subtotal ­17.6 ­4.8 115,753 Kariba 6 6-1 right Gwayi 84 30.1 87,960 1,386 Kafue 6-2 right Sanyati 104 44.0 74,534 7 7-1 left/right Itezhi Tezhi 336 98.1 108,134 6-3 left/right Lake Kariba 18 55.6 10,033 1,758 7-2 left/right Kafue Flats 35.0 23.4 47,194 Subtotal 206 37.6 172,527 7-3 left/right Kafue D/S 0.7 47.6 477 Subtotal 372 75.3 155,805 Mupata 4 4-1 left/right Chongwe 4.1 71.6 1,813 1,812 4-2 left/right Zambezi 49.9 72.6 21,670 Subtotal 54.0 72.5 23,483 Luangwa 2,330 5 5-1 left/right Luangwa 518 102.3 159,615 Subtotal 518 102.3 159,615 Tete 2 2-1 right Manyame 26.5 20.6 40,497 2-2 right Luenya 180 99.4 57,004 Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa 2-3 left/right Zambezi 987 301.1 103,393 3,523 3 3-1 right Rumakali 12.5 954.4 414 Subtotal 1,193 187.3 200,894 3-2 left Songwe 35.2 273.4 4,060 3-3 left S. Rukuru+ 47.0 118.7 12,483 N. Rumphi 4,021 3-4 left/right Tributaries 528 207.5 80,259 3-5 left/right Lake Malawi/ ­287 ­314.4 28,760 Niassa/Nyasa evaporation 3-6 left/right Lake Malawi/ 336 84.1 125,976 Niassa/Nyasa Zambezi Delta outlet 1 1-1 left/right Zambezi 113 191.3 18,680 4,134 3-7 left/right Shire 162 220.4 23,183 Subtotal 113 191.3 18,680 Subtotal 498 105.3 149,159 INDIAN OCEAN Note: Excludes the operational influence at the Kariba, Cahora Bassa, and Itezhi Tezhi dams. 6 The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context 1.4 populaTionand The eight riparian countries of the Basin repre- sent a wide range of economic conditions. Annual econoMy gross domestic product per capita ranges from $122 The population of the ZRB is approximately 30 in Zimbabwe to more than $7,000 in Botswana. million (table 1.2), more than 85 percent of whom Angola, Botswana, and Namibia have healthy cur- live in Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Zambia within four rent account surpluses, chiefly due to their oil and subbasins: Kafue, Kariba, Tete, and the Shire River diamond resources (table 1.3). and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. Of the total population, approximately 7.6 mil- lion (25 percent) live in 21 main urban centers (with 1.5 approachand 50,000 or more inhabitants). The rest live in rural MeThodology areas. The proportion of rural population varies from country to country, from over 50 percent in Water resources development is not an end in itself. Zambia to around 85 percent in Malawi. Rather, it is a means to an end: the sustainable use The ZRB is rich in natural resources. The main of water for productive purposes to enhance growth economic activities are fisheries, mining, agriculture, and reduce poverty. The analysis reported here was tourism, and manufacturing. Industries depend on undertaken from an economic perspective so as to the electricity produced in the hydropower plants better integrate the implications of the development (HPPs) of the Basin, as well as on other sources of of investment in water management infrastructure energy (primarily coal and oil). into the broad economic development and growth Table 1.2. Population of the Zambezi River Basin (in thousands, 2005­06 data) Subbasin Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Total % Kabompo (13) 4 -- -- -- -- -- 279 -- 283 0.9 Upper Zambezi (12) 200 -- -- -- -- -- 71 -- 271 0.9 Lungúe Bungo (11) 99 -- -- -- -- -- 43 -- 142 0.5 Luanginga (10) 66 -- -- -- -- -- 56 -- 122 0.4 Barotse (9) 7 -- -- -- 66 -- 679 -- 752 2.5 Cuando/Chobe (8) 156 16 -- -- 46 -- 70 -- 288 1 Kafue (7) -- -- -- -- -- -- 3,852 -- 3,852 12.9 Kariba (6) -- -- -- -- -- -- 406 4,481 4,887 16.3 Luangwa (5) -- -- 40 12 -- -- 1,765 -- 1,817 6.1 Mupata (4) -- -- -- -- -- -- 113 111 224 0.7 Shire River - Lake Malawi/Niassa/ -- -- 10,059 614 -- 1,240 13 -- 11,926 39.8 Nyasa (3) Tete (2) -- -- 182 1,641 -- -- 221 3,011 5,055 16.9 Zambezi Delta (1) -- -- -- 349 -- -- -- -- 349 1.2 Total 532 17 10,281 2,616 112 1,240 7,568 7,603 29,969 -- % 1.8 0.1 34.3 8.7 0.4 4.1 25.3 25.4 -- 100 Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007; SEDAC 2008. 7 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis the focus of this analysis is on major water-related Table 1.3. Macroeconomic data by country (2006) investments being considered by the riparian Population GDP GDP/cap Inflation countries in their national development plans. Country (million) (US$ million) (US$) rate (%) Development scenarios for other stakeholders can Angola 15.8 45.2 2,847 12.2 be superimposed on this analysis at a later time. Botswana 1.6 11.1 7,019 7.1 For the time being, however, water supply and sanitation, as well as environmental imperatives, Malawi 13.1 3.2 241 8.1 are considered as givens in nearly all scenarios con- Mozambique 20.0 6.8 338 7.9 sidered. In other words, hydropower and irrigation Namibia 2.0 6.9 3,389 6.7 development are superimposed over the continued Tanzania 38.2 14.2 372 7.0 provision of water for basic human needs and envi- Zambia 11.9 10.9 917 10.7 ronmental sustainability. This approach differs from Zimbabwe 11.7 1.4 122 >10,000 the conventional one of assuming basic water needs Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007; SEDAC 2008. and environmental sustainability as constraints on the optimized use of water. It should be noted that the scenarios for full basin-wide hydropower potential and full irriga- objectives of the riparian countries and the Basin as a tion development are primarily of analytical inter- whole. An international river system such as the ZRB est, rather than for practical application. They are is extremely complex. That complexity is reflected used here to help bracket the range and scope of in, but also compounded by, the large number of the analysis and to provide reference points. The initiatives being undertaken within the Basin and scenarios are based on identified projects in national by the large volume of data and information that and regional plans, and are dependent on enabling already exists. To analyze such a complex system, political and economic preconditions for their full simplifications and assumptions are unavoidable. implementation. The full potential for hydropower Those assumptions and their potential implications and irrigation in the Basin is not expected to be are acknowledged throughout the report. achieved in the time horizon of this analysis, which is based on the current national economic plans of 1.5.1 analyticalframework the riparian countries. The scenario analysis is carried out for the Operating within the framework of integrated water primary objective of determining and maximizing resources management, this analysis considers the economic benefits while meeting water supply and following water users as stakeholders: irrigated environmental sustainability requirements. Full co- agriculture, hydropower, municipal development, operation among the riparian countries is assumed. rural development, navigation, tourism and wildlife The scenarios are tested using a coupled hydro- conservation, and the environment. The analytical economic modeling system described in volume framework considered here is illustrated graphically 4. The purpose of the modeling effort is to provide in figure 1.3. The present context of the natural and insight into the range of gains that may be expected developed resource base, as well as cross-cutting from various infrastructure investments along the factors, of the ZRB (rows in the matrix) is assessed axes of full hydropower and irrigation development against the water-using stakeholders (columns (while continuing to satisfy requirements for water in the matrix) for a set of development scenarios. supply and environmental sustainability). Those development scenarios are focused on two Additionally, the analysis examines the effects key water-using stakeholders that require major of conjunctive or coordinated operation of existing investments in the region: hydropower and irrigated facilities, as well as potential gains from the strate- agriculture. gic development of new facilities. The analysis also While the need to consider the details of the in- addresses the potential impact of the development teraction among all stakeholders is acknowledged, scenarios on the environment (wetlands), tourism, 8 The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context Figure 1.3. Zambezi River Basin: scenario analysis matrix Regional Assessment Analytical framework applied to the development and analysis of scenarios. The regional assessment explores the eight riparian countries, 13 subbasins and three zones of the Basin to de ne scenarios based on optimized and collaborative water resource management Zambezi River Basin Management and Development Biophysical setting Zambezi River Basin cross-cutting factors Agriculture, Livestock and Forestry Macroeconomic setting Potable Water and Sanitation Environmental Sustainability Fisheries and Aquaculture Energy and Hydropower Mining and Industry Sociological setting Navigation Tourism Institutional setting Bene cial uses of water resources flood control, guaranteed minimum river flows in growth and on poverty reduction. With that in mind, the dry season, and other topics. the analysis considers the entire Basin as a single Specific attention is also given to the opera- natural resource base while examining potential tional and investment options for reducing flood sectoral investments. This approach is appropriate risks downstream of Cahora Bassa Dam and to the for initial indicative purposes and provides a com- possibility of partial restoration of natural floods to mon point of reference for all riparian countries. manage the impact on the Zambezi Delta of exist- The complexities inherent in national economics ing dams on the Zambezi River. In this analysis, the and transboundary political relationships are not impact of climate change on the hydrology of the directly addressed in this analysis. This is left to ZRB and on the investment options assessed are the riparian countries to address, informed by the addressed through a rudimentary incremental varia- results of this and other analyses. tion of key driving factors. Climate change is deemed a risk factor to developments and more detailed 1.5.2 Theriver/reservoirsystemModel analysis is warranted for an in-depth understand- ing of impact. The ongoing efforts by the riparian The modeling package adopted for the analysis is countries and the development partners on assessing HEC-3, a river and reservoir system model devel- the impact of climate change on the Zambezi River oped by the Hydrologic Engineering Center of the Basin will provide guidance in due course. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The version of the Looming large in the analysis are the economics model used in this study, illustrated in figure 1.4, of different options, conceived in terms of the effect was modified by the consultants to improve some of potential investments on national and regional of its features. The same software package was 9 Figure 1.4. Schematic of the river/reservoir system model for the Zambezi River Basin LEGEND Kabompo River Kafue Flats Flood plain Control point for irrigation abstraction Lake / reservoir / pondage Rumakali Control point for water supply abstraction 43 I.03.12 Rumakali 20 Hydropower plant (Tanzania) 34 35 35 Control point for mining & industrial abstraction 34 Existing control point Humage 34 Future control point Name of the abstraction line in the abstraction database I.03.05 25 I.07.01 Stream ow gauging station, (Tanzania) Songwe I Songwe II Songwe III I.07.02 Songwe Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa Final number to distinguish di erent abstraction lines 15 reservoir in ow,hydropower I.03.06 Net In ow plant turbine ow + spill (Malawi) 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 21 Subbasin Mwandenga I.03.10 I: irrigation, W: drinkable water, M: mining & industry 26 Net evaporation series over reservoir Lake located at control point 26 Other rivers of Lake Malawi/Niassa/ I.03.08 (Tanzania) (Tanzania) 22 I.03.09 (Malawi) 40 Malawi/ 43 I.03.11 Zambezi Nyasa catchment Land discharge (Malawi) The following water abstraction points will be modeled with reservoirs in order to anticipate the regulation needs: 1.13, 1.12, 1.11, 1.10, Lower Fufu Niassa/Nyasa 1.08.1, 1.05.1, 1.05.2, 1.07.1, 1.06.7, 1.06.8, 1.02.2, 1.02.3. South Rukuru I.03.07 43 Future control points for irrigation are to a degree already used at present. 23 41 42 42 2 I.12.01 Phwezi 26 Naturalised discharges of Lake Chavuma Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa at Liwonde Mission North Rumphi 02 24 44 Kholombizo Lungúe Bungo Kabompo 3 01 1 Chiweta 45 I.03.04 I.11.01 Watopa Pontoon I.13.01 19 20 Nkula Falls M.07.01 46 Copperbelt mines, water W.07.01 46 I.07.01 16 abstractions Lusaka I.03.03 Zambezi & dewatering water 47 Luanginga supply The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Luangwa 4 03 I.07.03 17 48 Tedzani I.10.01 Kalabo 19 20 10 I.05.01 26 I.05.02 48 I.07.02 I.07.04 Kafue Gorge Upper 19 Lunsemfwa 49 I.03.02 Kafue 17 Shire Barotse 10 11 Kafue 20 25 Itezhi 17 18 20 21 Kapichira Flood Plain Tezhi Flats 50 Itezhi Tezhi Kafue Flats Luangwa Valley in ows 15 Kafue Gorge 22 in ows 50 Lower 22 I.05.03 5 I.09.01 M.06.01 (Zambia) 27 Chikwawa I.06.11 Cuando I.07.05 I.05.04 M.02.01 (Zambia) Maamba Colliery & 23 27 Moatize I.03.01 11 I.06.12 thermal station (Mozambique) 51 6 I.08.01 04 I.06.01 (Zambia) I.06.07 12 M.02.02 (Zimbabwe) Great 13 Benga Coal Licuari I.06.02 (Zimbabwe) (Zambia) 31 Kafue Katima Mulilo 15 East 29 Elephant 28 05 I.06.03 (Namibia) I.06.08 mines & thermal 15 Road Great East power stations Marsh Nacuadala Campo (Zimbabwe) Victoria Falls I.06.04 (Botswana) Mphanda Nkuwa bridge Road bridge Chongwe Kongola Chobe-Caprivi- I.02.03 Batoka Gorge I.01.01 Luangwa Lake Liambezi 7 15 29 Cuando / Chobe Flood Plain 11 09 15 16 31 17 Zambezi Zambezi 8 06 9 9 10 11 12 Kariba 15 24 Cahora Bassa 29 30 31 33 19 52 53 Delta Victoria Lower I.04.01 Cahora Bassa Tete - Selinda I.08.02 W.06.01 I.06.05 Catchment Cahora Bassa I.02.04 Lupata Falls (Zambia) reconstituted out ows Matundo I.01.02 Spillway (Zambia) Gaborone (Zambia) reconstituted Cais I.08.03 water supply I.04.02 local in ows 18 I.06.06 in ows 08 (Zimbabwe) Mutoko I.02.05 (Namibia) (Zimbabwe) 07 Road Brdge 32 (Zimbabwe) Okavango Copper Queen M.06.02 28 29 Swamps - Kamativi I.02.02 I.02.06 Okavango Gokwé I.02.01 (Mozambique) Okavango I.06.10 14 15 15 thermal Delta Pandamatenga Plains I.06.09 13 power Luenya Shawanoya W.06.02 Mazowe Manyane station Bulawayo water supply Gwayi 14 Sanyati Chivero The Zambezi River Basin: Background and Context adopted during the SADC 3.0.4 project that inves- Zambezi River downstream from the Kariba and Ca- tigated joint operation of the Kariba, Kafue Gorge hora Bassa dams, like the Zambezi Delta, has been per- Upper, and Cahora Bassa dams. The model is still manently altered by river-regulation infrastructure. being used by the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA). To take into account e-flows in the various The fact that water professionals in the ZRB were reaches of the Zambezi River, some assumptions familiar with the earlier version of the model partly had to be made related to the amount of water accounts for its selection. A detailed description of available at all times. The following e-flow criteria the model appears in volume 4 of this report. were used in the river/reservoir system model in In the present analysis, the modeling time step almost all the scenarios: the flow should never fall adopted is one month. All inputs, inflows, evapo- below historical low-flow levels in dry years of the ration, diversions or withdrawals, downstream record,1 where records are available. Moreover, the flow demands, and reservoir rule curves are on a average annual flow cannot fall below 60 percent monthly basis. The outputs of the model--reservoir of the natural average annual flow downstream storage and outflows, turbine flow, spill, and power from Kariba Dam. The minimum flow in the generation--are also on a monthly basis. The simu- Zambezi Delta in February was set at 7,000 m3/s lation period spans 40 years--from October 1962 to for at least four out of five dry years. September 2002--long enough to obtain a realistic The development scenarios, the state of the estimate of energy production. The main inflow basin, and the modeling, analysis, and input data series, from the Zambezi River at Victoria Falls, are described in detail in volumes 2, 3, and 4, re- shows that the flow sequence from 1962 to 1981 spectively. Together, they strengthen the analytical is above normal, while the sequence from 1982 to knowledge base available for making informed 2002 is below normal. The flow data available to the decisions about investment opportunities, financ- study team were insufficient to consider extending ing, and benefit sharing. Moreover, the analysis can the simulation period beyond 2002. Information on assist the Zambezi River Watercourse Commission groundwater (e.g., status of aquifers and abstraction awaiting ratification (ZAMCOM), SADC, and ripar- levels) was too insufficient to allow for sufficient ian countries by providing insight into options for conjunctive analysis. joint or cooperative development as well as associ- While the focus of this analysis is on hydro- ated benefit sharing. power and irrigation, the river/reservoir system model takes into account all sectors concerned 1.5.3 TheeconomicassessmentTool with water management, notably tourism, fisheries, environment such as environmental flows (e-flows) The economic assessment approach used here in- and specific important wetlands, flood control, and corporates the inputs from the various projects for industry. Details of the guidelines and rule curves sector analysis to provide an overall analysis of the used in the model for reservoir operations, flood economic implications of development and invest- management, delta and wetlands management, ment scenarios. A schematic of the elements of the environmental flows, tourism flows, and fisheries development scenario is given in figure 1.5. The flows are given in volume 4 of this series. development scenarios were compared to assess the Maintaining e-flows throughout the system was relative viability of a given option. For hydropower a major consideration in this analysis. Reaches of the and irrigation, the basic elements of the analysis are Zambezi River upstream of the Kariba and Cahora the projects identified by the riparian countries. This Bassa dams are generally considered in near-pristine analysis is multi-sectoral by design; the major link condition. The tributaries rising in Zimbabwe are among the sectors (and associated projects) is the highly developed, with river-regulation infrastructure allocation or use of water. for irrigation. The Kafue River is also regulated and The economic analysis uses input from the sustains a large number of water-using sectors. The river/reservoir system model. 1 The statistical dry year considered here is the natural flow with a five-year return period. 11 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 1.5. Schematic of the elements of the economic analysis tool Scenario Power sector Agriculture sector Other sectors Other major projects Hydropower plants Irrigation schemes ­ Tourism ­ Chobe/Zambezi transfer ­ Fisheries ­ Maamba coal mine ­ Environment ­ Gokwé coal mine ­ Moatize Benga coal mine ­ Lusaka water supply · Hydropower. The model uses the production · Scenario level ­ starting date, time horizon; figures from the hydropower installations · Sector ­ sector-specific parameters and prices, (described in detail in the section on the hydro- the specific irrigation models used in sector power in volume 3) and attributes these to the projects (e.g., crop budgets); and various hydropower projects. · Project ­ project time frames, project-specific · Irrigation. Based on the allocated water and costs and benefits. development scenarios, the appropriate models for the relevant irrigation projects are used at Details of the economic analysis assumptions specific abstraction points in the river/reservoir can be found in volume 4. system model, and the associated costs and The economic assessment tool provides, as benefits are calculated. output, a summary table, which includes: · Other sectors. Data on flows at Victoria Falls is used to assess their impact on tourism. Financial · Hydropower generation and agriculture output, and economic values of different flood manage- presented in the agricultural and irrigation ment options and their impact on the Zambezi calculations; Delta are calculated. The value of wetlands used · Cash flows based on project cash flows; in the analysis tool is derived from the analysis · Economic internal rate of return and net present of the environmental resources (details are pro- value (NPV) by development scenario, based on vided in volume 3). the appropriate time frame and project imple- · Other major projects. Water-transfer schemes as- mentation schedule; sociated with these major projects are included · Employment impact (jobs) calculated as the ra- in the scenario analysis. tio of jobs to gigawatt hours of installed capac- ity or jobs to hectares of a particular crop; and, The economic assessment is based on a number · A sensitivity analysis that was carried out for of assumptions regarding its parameters. It includes variations in investment costs, prices, and pro- the following: duction values. 12 2 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context The Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) is made up of 13 major subbasins with the river's major tributaries and catchments. These subbasins provide the scale for much of the Zambezi River Multi-Sector Invest- ment Opportunities Analysis (MSIOA), as well as the focus of previous literature on the Zambezi River. The ZRB is located in southern Africa between nine and 20 degrees south and between 18 and 36 degrees east. The Basin is the fourth-largest in Africa after the Congo, Nile, and Niger river basins. It has an area of 137 million hectares (1.37 million km2) and extends into Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The ZRB covers almost all of the territory of Malawi, more than 70 percent of Zambia, and almost half of Zim- babwe. Significant portions of Mozambique and Angola also fall within the Basin, as well as smaller portions of Tanzania, Botswana, and Namibia. Most of the ZRB is situated on the high plateau of the ancient continent of Gondwana, with elevations between 800 and 1,450 meters above sea level. The majority of the Basin's area is situated between 1,000 and 1,300 meters, with only a small portion below 100 meters or above 1,500 meters. 2.1 overviewoFbasinhydrology 2.1.1 rainfallcharacteristics Rainfall varies throughout the ZRB (table 2.1). It is generally higher in the northern parts and reaches up to 1,400 mm per year in the upper reaches and around Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. It is lowest in the southern parts--such as the area within Zimbabwe--with a maximum of 500 mm per year. 2.1.2 runoffcharacteristics Hydrological time series are needed to identify investment opportuni- ties relevant to the major water-using sectors of the ZRB. Ideally for the study period (October 1962 to September 2002), the series should 13 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis a full drought period are the minimum requirement Table 2.1. Rainfall in the Zambezi River Basin for the analysis and thus for the viability of any Subbasin proposed project. Mean annual Name Number precipitation (mm) Mean average runoff data from the ZRB are pub- lished in several reports and for the purposes of this Kabompo 13 1,211 study were initially obtained from the Rapid Assess- Upper Zambezi 12 1,225 ment Report (Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007). Lungúe Bungo 11 1,103 Time series could not be obtained, however, and the Luanginga 10 958 average runoff data appear to be based on long-term Barotse 9 810 averages that do not extend past a drought period. Cuando/Chobe 8 797 Monthly historical flows at hydrometric stations Kafue 7 1,042 and hydropower plants were obtained mainly from Kariba 6 701 the Zambezi Water Information System (ZAMWIS) Luangwa 5 1,021 database, developed during the Zambezi Action Plan Project 6, Phase II (ZACPRO 6.2). Other Mupata 4 813 sources, including water departments of some of Shire River and Lake Malawi/ 3 1,125 the riparian countries and power utilities, also Niassa/Nyasa provided flow data. Runoff is based on recorded Tete 2 887 flows and time series. Missing flows were estimated Zambezi Delta 1 1,060 by cross-correlation with the flows of neighbor- Total 956 ing hydrometric stations to cover over the whole Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007. study period. The simulation could not be extended beyond 2002 due to insufficient flow data. In the provide information on the variability of flow both case of large reservoirs (Kariba and Cahora Bassa), throughout a given year and over the longer term. the unregulated inflows were estimated using the Monthly hydrological time series that cover at least principle of continuity--that is, based on changes Table 2.2. Runoff from the Zambezi River Basin Subbasin Area (km2) Mean annual runoff (km3) Name Number Incremental Total Incremental Total Kabompo 13 78,683 78,683 8.61 -- Upper Zambezi 12 91,317 91,317 23.40 -- Lungúe Bungo 11 44,368 44,368 3.59 -- Luanginga 10 35,893 35,893 2.19 -- Barotse 9 115,753 366,014 ­0.56 37.22 Cuando/Chobe 8 148,994 148,994 0.00 -- Kafue 7 155,805 155,805 11.74 11.74 Kariba 6 172,527 687,535 6.49 43.71 Mupata 5 23,483 1,026,438 1.68 73.46 Luangwa 4 159,615 159,615 16.33 16.32 Shire River ­ Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa 3 149,159 149,159 15.71 -- Tete 2 200,894 1,227,332 37.64 111.10 Zambezi Delta 1 18,680 1,395,171 3.58 130.39 Total 1,395,171 130.39 14 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context in reservoir storage, outflows through the turbines evapotranspiration rates, net rainfall amounts, and and spillway gates, and reservoir evaporation. The driest year on record (most subbasins experienced main inflow series at Victoria Falls show that the serious drought in 1991­92). flow sequence from 1962 to 1981 was above normal, while the sequence from 1982 to 2002 was below Kabompo (subbasin 13) normal. Reservoir evaporation estimates are further detailed in volume 4. The Kabompo subbasin is located almost entirely While assembling the time series, the boundar- within Zambia, within the high rainfall (figure 2.1.) ies of subbasin catchments appeared to differ from zone in the Upper ZRB. Rainfall is estimated to be earlier research. Certain flow patterns may never 1,200 mm per year on average. The annual average be concretely determined in many cases, especially runoff volume is approximately 8,615 km3. Monthly in places such as the Okavango Delta and the Zam- runoff is lowest between September and Novem- bezi River Delta, which explains the differences ber, dipping to as low as 130 km3 in October. The encountered. Kabompo subbasin is a headwater catchment with floods occurring shortly after heavy rainfall. Floods 2.1.3 subbasincharacteristics occur primarily during February and March. The highest recorded runoff volume is 3,425 km3 during The following subsections summarize the general April. Water withdrawals for irrigation are limited surface water characteristics of each of the 13 subba- and estimated at an annual 4.8 km3. There are no sins considered in the study. Hydrographs for each dams in the subbasin, although there are formal subbasin indicate present average rainfall patterns, plans for their construction. Figure 2.1. Hydrograph of Kabompo, subbasin 13 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 13: Kabompo 300 250 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 200 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 144 116 107 108 97 111 112 102 91 98 117 134 1,337 Rain 46 178 259 254 216 195 50 3 1 0 1 6 1,209 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 13: Kabompo 700.0 600.0 500.0 Flow (m3/s) 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 73.4 80.5 104.2 190.6 204.8 339.8 230.9 125.5 90.0 80.5 72.2 60.4 137.7 Average 82.0 102.8 203.3 354.5 532.9 664.6 558.4 270.0 166.7 137.3 113.8 89.8 273.0 15 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Upper Zambezi (subbasin 12) catchment and floods shortly after heavy rainfall. The highest monthly runoff volume, estimated to be High rainfall in the Upper Zambezi subbasin leads 3,725 km3, is recorded in March. The average total to heavy runoff. The average total runoff volume runoff volume is estimated to be 2,587 km3 per year is 23,411 km3 per year (figure 2.2.). During drier and 754 km3 in drier years. The Lungúe Bungo has years, runoff may be closer to 8,000 km3. The lowest the lowest withdrawals for irrigation, at less than yearly volume on record is 56 km3. Similar to the 3.7 km3 per year. The subbasin does not have dams Kabompo, the Upper Zambezi experiences floods or hydropower plants, and there are no formal plans shortly after heavy rainfall. The highest runoff for their construction. volume is usually recorded in April, often reaching more than 14,056 km3. A small amount of water (3.6 Luanginga (subbasin 10) km3) is withdrawn for irrigation and run-of-the- river (R-o-R) in Angola. The subbasin has no dams The Luanginga subbasin is one of the smaller catch- or hydropower constructions, but there are plans ments in the Basin. Runoff averages 2,190 km3 per for very small hydropower plants; the largest has a year (figure 2.4.). Its small areal size contributes to proposed installed capacity of 11 megawatts (MW). flooding shortly after heavy rainfall. The highest monthly rainfall volume is an estimated 2,273 km3 Lungúe Bungo (subbasin 11) in March. Luanginga lies almost entirely within Angola. Like the upstream subbasins, withdrawal Despite high rainfall, the Lungúe Bungo subbasin for irrigation is low (4.7 km3 per year) in the sub- has limited runoff compared with that of upstream basin. There are no dams, hydropower plants, or subbasins (figure 2.3.). The subbasin is a headwater plans for any. Figure 2.2. Hydrograph of Upper Zambezi, subbasin 12 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 12: Upper Zambezi 250 200 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 143 116 112 112 101 110 113 110 102 111 133 147 1,410 Rain 71 165 228 224 200 195 63 5 1 0 1 12 1,165 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 12: Upper Zambezi 2500.0 2000.0 Flow (m3/s) 1500.0 1000.0 500.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 37.3 43.3 80.5 157.5 310.1 873.9 758.5 333.0 180.3 113.0 80.5 55.3 251.9 Average 79.5 110.5 274.6 795.3 1,674.0 2,304.1 2,037.0 799.3 366.2 221.6 144.0 96.3 741.9 16 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Figure 2.3. Hydrograph of Lungúe Bungo, subbasin 11 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 11: Lungúe Bungo 250 200 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 146 120 119 116 105 115 116 119 110 118 138 150 1,472 Rain 80 163 224 235 202 184 68 7 1 0 2 15 1,181 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 11: Lungúe Bungo 400.0 350.0 300.0 Flow (m3/s) 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 18.7 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 28.9 49.3 37.4 28.9 25.5 20.4 17.0 23.9 Average 22.1 21.9 29.9 85.2 196.1 373.4 297.7 145.5 80.3 50.5 35.9 26.6 113.8 Figure 2.4. Hydrograph of Luanginga, subbasin 10 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 10: Luanginga 250 200 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 175 135 124 127 114 128 129 132 123 136 160 183 1,666 Rain 58 148 220 232 212 171 67 6 1 0 1 9 1,125 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 10: Luanginga 250.0 200.0 Flow (m3/s) 150.0 100.0 50.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 11.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 17.6 30.1 22.8 17.6 15.6 12.4 10.4 14.6 Average 13.5 13.3 18.3 52.0 119.6 227.7 181.6 88.7 49.0 30.8 21.9 16.2 69.4 17 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Barotse (subbasin 9) Cuando/Chobe (subbasin 8) Previous research indicated that incremental inflow The Cuando/Chobe subbasin is the driest catchment from the Barotse catchment has contributed sub- in the ZRB. Previous research estimated runoff to be stantially to the water balance in the ZRB (figure 1,100 km3 per year--only one percent of the Basin's 2.5.). More detailed analysis, however, reveals that total runoff (figure 2.6.). The subbasin's contribution a large wetland--the Barotse Dambo (floodplain)-- has therefore been omitted from the mass balance attenuates the flow, leading to high rates of evapo- calculations for the ZRB. But although its contribu- ration. The catchment therefore generates a net tion is thought to be negligible, the Cuando/Chobe loss for the Basin. The Barotse subbasin's flow is directly affects the overall water balance in several cumulative. Flows from the upstream subbasin ways. When the flow at Katima Mulilo exceeds average 37,249 km3 per year at its outlet. Peak flow 1,350 km3 per second, the river overflows through is estimated to be 19,056 km3. There is a lag time an ephemeral channel into Lake Liambezi, an of around three months between peak rainfall and ephemeral lake where water evaporates. Sometimes peak runoff (compared with one month in upstream the Chobe tributary flows into the Zambezi River subbasins). Water withdrawals for irrigation are low and at other times the Zambezi reverses into the (3.5 km3 per year), and irrigation potential is limited. Chobe tributary. The direction of flow depends on Expansion is not expected. Recession irrigation is a water surface differential between the two water widely practiced; crops are planted in the moist courses at their confluence. In the past, water has soils of receding wetlands and emerge at the onset also flowed from the Okavango Swamps into the of the dry season. There are no dams or hydropower ZRB through the Selinda natural spillway. Because plants in the Barotse subbasin and no plans for any. of the geological uplift of the spillway however, this Figure 2.5. Hydrograph of Barotse, subbasin 9 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 9: Barotse 250 200 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 172 147 136 132 117 135 125 116 98 107 134 159 1,578 Rain 26 90 191 195 187 113 28 2 1 0 0 2 835 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 9: Barotse 3500.0 3000.0 2500.0 Flow (m3/s) 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 266.6 259.2 275.3 389.6 500.6 730.5 1,047.9 1,018.0 480.7 333.5 274.8 237.1 484.5 Average 294.2 304.1 437.6 715.0 1,324.8 2,398.4 3,157.3 2,534.5 1,427.6 738.2 474.7 357.8 1,180.3 18 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Figure 2.6. Hydrograph of Cuando/Chobe, subbasin 8 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 8: Cuando/Chobe 200 180 160 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 174 155 150 144 130 136 118 110 96 102 129 159 1,603 Rain 37 85 121 157 125 112 53 5 0 0 1 2 698 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 8: Cuando/Chobe 40.0 35.0 30.0 Flow (m3/s) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 14.9 13.4 13.9 15.3 17.2 19.1 16.1 15.1 14.9 13.9 12.9 12.3 14.9 Average 31.4 28.1 27.3 29.8 33.0 34.6 35.1 33.8 33.0 35.3 35.3 34.0 32.5 has not happened for many years. Withdrawal for the upstream Itezhi Tezhi Dam (ITT) regulate power irrigation, though significant, is still small compared generation. Between the ITT and KGU lies the eco- with other parts of the Basin (8.5 km3 per year). There logically important Kafue Flats. The river gradient is are no dams or hydropower plants or plans for any. gentle throughout the flats, and evaporation losses are significant. Therefore, releases from the ITT may Kafue (subbasin 7) not reach the KGU for up to two months, which at- tenuates flows considerably. Two new hydropower The Kafue subbasin is a headwater catchment lo- schemes are planned on the Kafue River: at Itezhi cated entirely within Zambia. Rainfall and runoff Tezhi at the outlet of the reservoir and the Kafue are comparatively high, averaging 1,050 millimeters Gorge Lower Dam (KGL). There has been some and 12,913 km3 per year, respectively (figure 2.7.). preliminary investigation into raising the level of The highest flows usually occur in March and are the ITT as well. estimated to be 9,715 km3. During the worst drought on record, runoff volume was only 3,266 km3 per Kariba (subbasin 6) year. Withdrawal and demand for irrigation water is estimated to be 536 km3 per year--among the The Kariba subbasin has a mean annual precipita- highest totals in the ZRB. There is potential for tion (MAP) of 700 mm per year--the lowest total further expansion of irrigation. Furthermore, a in the Basin (figure 2.8.). Nevertheless, Kariba con- substantial amount of hydropower is generated in tributes an estimated 8,400 km3 per year to overall the Kafue subbasin. The Kafue Gorge Upper (KGU) flow. The subbasin is located roughly in the middle hydropower station is located in the Kafue Gorge. of the ZRB. The lag between peak rainfall in the Because storage is limited, however, releases from upper areas of the river's catchment (in December 19 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 2.7. Hydrograph of Kafue, subbasin 7 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 7: Kafue 300 250 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 200 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 179 140 124 121 109 124 119 111 98 107 134 157 1,523 Rain 24 121 256 241 196 134 32 5 1 0 0 1 1,011 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 7: Kafue 800.0 700.0 600.0 Flow (m3/s) 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Regulated Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 160.1 160.3 160.4 160.5 160.4 160.0 159.7 159.6 159.6 159.7 159.8 160.0 160.0 Average 259.6 231.4 205.0 204.9 235.9 429.0 507.2 482.5 573.3 378.8 295.9 279.2 340.2 Unregulated Drought 45.2 52.2 89.9 124.4 150.5 155.3 164.9 143.8 98.7 62.6 42.2 27.9 96.5 Average 150.2 107.4 163.5 275.1 420.9 606.3 709.0 625.8 486.8 396.6 304.2 219.2 372.1 and January) and the subsequent flood peak at the Batoka Gorge and Devils Gorge also have major Victoria Falls (in April and May, estimated to be hydropower potential, although only Batoka is 21,690 km3) is therefore considerable--around four economically feasible. months. Withdrawals for irrigation total 529 km3 per year. Extraction occurs primarily in Zimbabwe Luangwa (subbasin 5) through numerous dams. Potential for further ir- rigation is high, although mostly on the Zambian The Luangwa subbasin has a relatively high MAP of side. The Kariba Dam--located at the border of over 1,000 mm per year and a large surface drainage Zambia and Zimbabwe--creates Lake Kariba, the area (figure 2.9.). It therefore generates consider- second-largest man-made lake in Africa after Lake able runoff with total estimated annual volumes of Volta. The two hydropower plants, one on each side 16,339 km3, although that figure can fall to as low as of the dam in each of the two countries, generate 8,246 km3 in drier years. Floods occur in February, 30 percent of the hydropower capacity of the Zam- March, and April. The largest monthly flow volume bezi River. Upstream, at Victoria Falls, three smaller is estimated to be 8,432 km3. Because the Luangwa hydropower plants have a total capacity of around subbasin is a headwater catchment, the lag between 100 MW. The tremendous natural and ecosystem rainfall and floods is usually short, although the value of Victoria Falls makes further expansion length of the Luangwa River can extend it. Much unlikely. Katombara--some 60 kilometers north of of the natural resources in the Luangwa catchment the falls--has storage potential, but environmental area--especially along the main stem of the river-- constraints limit the feasibility of such a project. are protected for conservation purposes. Extraction of 20 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Figure 2.8. Hydrograph of Kariba, subbasin 6 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 6: Kariba 250 200 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 215 178 153 148 132 146 134 122 105 116 147 184 1,780 Rain 18 68 156 164 139 76 24 5 1 0 0 2 653 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 6: Kariba 3500.0 3000.0 2500.0 Flow (m3/s) 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Regulated Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 199.7 231.8 302.9 927.2 913.2 901.4 897.6 893.8 891.8 893.2 897.5 902.1 737.7 Average 875.9 1,047.9 1,364.4 2,436.8 1,042.2 905.8 1,162.7 1,368.8 1,111.2 1,228.6 1,075.5 981.9 1,216.8 Unregulated Drought 200.0 292.6 215.2 327.1 464.0 725.2 1,369.8 1,224.3 473.5 296.4 344.6 335.1 522.3 Average 386.7 402.3 817.4 1,265.3 2,073.2 2,485.3 2,927.6 2,612.4 1,657.4 910.1 605.0 490.4 1,386.1 Figure 2.9. Hydrograph of Luangwa, subbasin 5 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 5: Luangwa 250 200 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 189 156 135 119 104 123 120 113 98 106 132 160 1,555 Rain 6 98 222 236 224 147 30 3 1 0 1 0 968 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 5: Luangwa 1800.0 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 Flow (m3/s) 1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 126.5 125.4 282.2 792.3 482.9 389.9 157.8 257.1 200.7 157.8 100.3 0.0 256.1 Average 60.1 52.1 358.1 990.5 1,391.6 1,546.9 882.2 371.4 214.8 157.7 111.4 76.7 517.8 21 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis water for irrigation is very low (120 km3 per year), but Irrigation demand for water in the subcatchment potential is high. There are three small hydropower is low (303 km3 per year). Yet proximity to Lusaka plants on the tributaries of the Luangwa River the makes irrigation potential high in some areas. There Mulungushi, the Lunsemfwa, and the Lusiwasi. are no hydropower plants in the Mupata subbasin. Power is generated from storage water, though de- The Mupata Gorge has potential for a 600 MW plant, tailed information is not readily available. although such a project is not feasible because it would inundate the protected Mana Pools. Mupata (subbasin 4) Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa Because of a small catchment surface area, the Mupata (subbasin 3) subbasin has little incremental runoff (figure 2.10.). However, it accumulates the flow of the Kariba and The Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa Kafue subbasins, and therefore, its total runoff vol- subbasin has the second-highest runoff of the ume is relatively high, at 74,900 km3 per year. During Zambezi subbasins (figure 2.11.). Estimated annual the hydrological years 1975­77, the regulating influ- runoff volumes are as high as 18,150 km3, which ence of Kariba Dam appears to have reduced the flow is almost 20 percent of the Basin's total. Unlike to almost zero. Lag time between rainfall and floods other subbasins, the Shire River and Lake Malawi/ is consistent with those of Lake Kariba and the up- Niassa/Nyasa has high rainfall in two noncon- stream subbasins of Kariba, Kafue, Barotse, and Kafue secutive months: January and March. As a result, Flats. Large parts of the Mupata subbasin--such as the subbasin often has two flood peaks. In March, Mana Pools, a UNESCO heritage site--are protected. runoff is at its highest at an estimated volume of Figure 2.10. Hydrograph of Mupata, subbasin 4 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 4: Mupata 250 200 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 206 163 151 136 118 140 130 121 105 113 145 180 1,708 Rain 17 84 172 179 159 90 18 3 1 0 0 1 724 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 4: Mupata 4000.0 3500.0 3000.0 2500.0 Flow (m3/s) 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Regulated Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 1,093.3 1,095.6 1,109.2 1,136.9 1,179.5 1,179.2 1,102.9 1,101.3 1,314.8 1,147.0 668.1 194.7 1,026.9 Average 1,149.3 1,296.6 1,619.7 2,741.1 1,419.0 1,455.0 1,738.3 1,888.8 1,714.3 1,632.6 1,392.1 1,277.7 1,610.4 Unregulated Drought 254.1 340.1 282.0 440.5 643.6 967.9 1,613.2 1,441.6 614.6 390.8 409.2 382.0 648.3 Average 550.6 527.0 1,031.2 1,639.8 2,635.1 3,211.8 3,705.0 3,275.7 2,174.1 1,331.9 929.9 726.3 1,811.5 22 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Figure 2.11. Hydrograph of Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, subbasin 3 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 3: Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa 300 250 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 200 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 166 150 124 116 106 115 112 105 90 98 116 138 1,436 Rain 16 79 200 240 209 243 136 29 18 11 5 5 1,191 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 3: Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa 700.0 600.0 500.0 Flow (m3/s) 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 233.2 48.0 188.8 189.6 313.4 453.7 266.4 200.6 139.5 110.3 182.6 127.1 204.4 Average 392.7 375.3 414.8 503.7 592.7 641.6 593.6 573.7 570.2 481.1 437.2 402.5 498.3 6,637 km3. A lesser peak occurs in June. The lowest mulative runoff volume is estimated at 111,000 km3 annual volume is estimated to be 9,174 km3, which per year at the outlet of the Tete subbasin. Peak is still considerable. The small difference between flow volume of 18,023 km3 occurs in February. Lake mean flow and drought flow suggests that the Shire Kariba and the Lake Cahora Bassa largely control River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin is floods at the outlet. These releases have not been not as susceptible to drought as the rest of the ZRB. sequenced to mirror natural flood patterns in the Although the Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/ Basin in the months of March and April. Peak flood, Nyasa subbasin is a headwater catchment, it has a although difficult to estimate accurately, is substan- large attenuating effect on floods. The lag between tially reduced compared to the natural flood peak. rainfall and floods is therefore significant. Irriga- Extraction of water for irrigation is high (655 km3 tion demand is high (over 647 km3 per year), and per year) with Lake Kariba and Lake Cahora Bassa potential for further irrigation is substantial. The providing the majority of supply, and are hence not Shire River has several small- to medium-sized hy- susceptible to droughts. A large dam and hydro- dropower plants, which contribute six percent of the power plant are planned at Mphanda Nkuwa in ZRB's total power-generating capacity. Additional Mozambique. There are also areas downstream from small- to medium-sized plants are also feasible. Mphanda Nkuwa with large hydropower potential. Tete (subbasin 2) Zambezi Delta (subbasin 1) The Tete subbasin accumulates all the flow from The cumulative runoff in the Zambezi Delta sub- the ZRB except that from the Shire River and Lake basin is estimated to be 130,000 km3 per year (figure Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin (figure 2.12.). Cu- 2.13.). Although a lack of flow gauges, along with 23 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 2.12. Hydrograph of Tete, subbasin 2 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 2: Tete 250 200 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 195 172 152 140 126 139 123 111 92 101 130 162 1,643 Rain 12 78 174 197 180 108 26 7 5 3 3 3 796 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 2: Tete 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0 Flow (m3/s) 5000.0 4000.0 3000.0 2000.0 1000.0 Basin 0.0 Mean Regulated Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 1,297.0 1,381.2 2,182.5 4,249.7 1,706.3 1,609.3 1,320.9 1,318.6 1,355.4 1,422.4 1,446.3 1,486.7 1,731.4 Average 2,296.0 2,281.1 4,465.1 6,376.0 4,836.2 3,098.0 2,515.2 2,576.1 2,479.3 2,756.1 3,002.6 2,225.8 3,242.3 Unregulated Drought 681.2 743.9 926.6 1,957.2 2,330.1 2,492.4 2,108.8 1,913.8 1,386.7 930.0 750.1 797.8 1,418.2 Average 1,583.9 1,456.7 2,593.1 4,318.4 6,816.9 6,530.8 5,444.0 4,388.0 3,207.5 2,425.1 1,890.4 1,625.6 3,523.4 uncertainty regarding catchment boundaries, in the Delta are comparatively high (127 km3 per makes it difficult to determine the incremental year). Despite the high potential for irrigation in contribution of the delta area. Rough estimates the Delta, there is a shortage of river flow to sup- suggest an annual volume of 3,600 km3. The long port development. The river gradient is too flat to river reach upstream of the Delta and the attenua- support hydropower plants. tion effects of Lake Kariba, Lake Cahora Bassa, and, to a lesser extent, Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa ex- plain the long lag time between rainfall and floods 2.2 exTreMeevenTs in the Delta. Such floods are thus foremost due to local rainfall and inflow from the Shire River and 2.2.1 Floods Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin. Since the construction of the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, Floods in the Kafue River Basin major floods originating in the middle and upper reaches of the Basin have only once influenced the The Kafue catchment has two major natural flood flow in the Delta region. The greatest recorded flood control features. As a result, outflows are low com- volume in recent times was measured at 14,700 m3 pared with rainfall. The Kafue River has an average per second. The highest flood would have reached flow rate of 350 m3 per second near the confluence around 19,000 km3 per second if not for the impact with the Zambezi River. The average total annual of the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams (Beilfuss and flow is only 6.2 percent of the catchment's average Brown 2006). Withdrawals of water for irrigation annual rainfall of 1,057 millimeters. The main fea- 24 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Figure 2.13. Hydrograph of Zambezi Delta, subbasin 1 (rainfall, ETP and flow) Mean monthly ETP and rainfall in subbasin 1: Zambezi Delta 300 250 Rainfall/ETP (mm) 200 150 100 50 Basin 0 Mean Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual ETP 178 173 165 163 144 145 123 109 90 98 121 143 1,652 Rain 20 71 164 243 180 173 71 45 37 28 27 15 1,074 Mean monthly ow in subbasin 1: Zambezi Delta 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0 Flow (m3/s) 5000.0 4000.0 3000.0 2000.0 1000.0 Basin Mean Regulated Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Annual Drought 1,750.4 1,813.1 2,608.3 4,807.1 2,289.4 2,280.3 2,541.6 2,130.2 2,063.8 2,086.2 2,067.9 2,078.0 2,376.4 Average 2,707.5 2,682.7 4,961.8 7,087.5 5,751.5 4,005.8 3,304.4 3,242.6 3,101.9 3,276.5 3,472.3 2,651.5 3,853.8 Unregulated Drought 1,134.8 1,175.8 1,352.2 2,514.6 2,913.1 3,163.6 3,329.7 2,725.6 2,095.1 1,593.9 1,371.6 1,389.4 2,063.3 Average 1,995.5 1,858.3 3,089.8 5,029.8 7,732.2 7,438.6 6,233.4 5,054.4 3,830.2 2,945.4 2,360.3 2,051.4 4,134.9 tures of the Basin are extensive dambos, the Lukanga 10 days of December 2008). Heavy rainfall in the Swamps, and the Kafue Flats, which are known to southern half of the country also caused localized be prone to flooding. During times of peak flow, the flash floods in the Zambezi and Luangwa valley Kafue River also experiences riverine flooding that areas (Mwelwa 2008). is quite extensive in some areas. Such flooding can Rainfall during the period November 2007 to make routes to the river impassable, which disrupts January 2008 exceeded that of the 2006/2007 season. ferry operations and other activities along the river Most of the southern half of the country (western, banks. Figure 2.14. illustrates some flood-prone areas eastern, and southern provinces) experienced in the Kafue River Basin (Mwelwa 2008). severe flash floods in low-lying areas (Luangwa A strategy for flood management in the Kafue and Zambezi Rift Valleys). Water logging in the Basin was prepared in 2006 and translated into central, southern, and western plateaus damaged short-, medium-, and long-term action plans (see bridges, culverts, habitations, school buildings, WMO/GRZ/APFM 2006 for more details). In 2007 health centers, and other infrastructure. Infrastruc- and 2008, Zambia experienced widespread floods. ture damage also hindered access to basic services The floods of 2008 were more severe, more wide- such as healthcare providers, schools, and markets spread, and caused greater damage than those of (Mwelwa 2008). For example, classroom blocks 2007 (Mwelwa 2008). In 2007, rainfall came early in in 44 schools--40 basic schools and four commu- the season to most parts of Zambia (early Novem- nity schools--suffered damage or collapsed due to ber), especially in the southern half of the country. heavy rainfall and flooding. Sanitation facilities also The northern half experienced delayed onset (last collapsed or flooded, rendering the schools unfit for 25 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 2.14. Flooding in Kafue River Basin KAFUE BASIN BOUNDARY Lucapa WETLANDS NATIONAL CAPITALS TA N ZANIA Lake MAJOR CITIES Tanganyika Lake INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES Mweru Saurimo ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN D E M O C R AT I C R E P U B L I C Kasama OF C O N G O Mansa ZAMBIA wa ang 0 25 50 100 200 Kilometers i ez Lake Lu mb Lubumbashi Bangweulu Za 0 50 100 150 Miles Solwezi Source: Mwelwa 2008. Kafue Lake Lun Malawi/ gúe Lushi B ung Niassa/ wa o Ndola Msan di r Nyasa sh e o i a Lushwishi mp MALAWI g bo Swamp Lun e ji Chipata Ka Mu s o n d w Busanga a Swamp Lukanga Swamp an gw Lilongwe i sh Lu Lunsemfwa sa ku Cu e Kafu Lu Kabwe a o nd Barotse Luanging Floodplain embeshi a Mw Mongu Kafue Flat Lusaka MOZAMBIQUE ANGOL A Luena KAFUE GORGE Flats LOWER ITEZHI KAFUE GORGE DAM Lake Luiana TEZHI DAM UPPER DAM Cahora Bassa Tete am zoe Ma Z be zi w Choma Lupata an K do Gorge ani Lake Kariba Huny Caprivi-Chobe Katima Harare August 2010 IBRD 37982 Mulilo Livingstone Rundu ti Kasane NAMIBIA Lin ya BOTSWANA ZIMBABWE Source: Mwelwa 2008. learning. Most feeder roads from district centers to prising of 7,422 displaced and 267,378 nondisplaced the affected areas were flooded and only partially people, were in dire need of humanitarian relief. accessible. Bridges and culverts either collapsed or were submerged. This reduced the supply of goods Floods in the Lower Shire River Basin and services to these areas and left the communities cut off from other districts. Rehabilitation and repair Floods occur in the south, particularly in the Lower of damaged infrastructure has strained the national Shire River floodplain and the lakeshore areas of budget (Mwelwa 2008). By February 2008, almost Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, Lake Malombe, and half of Zambia's 72 districts were affected by the Lake Chilwa. Low-lying areas such as Lower Shire floods which directly lead to very poor agricultural Valley and some localities in Salima and Karonga yields with damaged food (maize, millet, sorghum, are more vulnerable to floods than higher elevated and cassava) and cash crops (rice, sweet potatoes, areas. Flooding problems in the lower stretches and cotton). Major cash generating crops--such of the Shire River and the Ruo River floodplains as maize, cotton, tobacco, and groundnuts--were are generally caused by brief high-flow periods waterlogged, causing nutrient leaching. A total of of the Ruo River. Floods also occur in the lower 274,800 affected people (45,800 households), com- reaches of the Songwe River in the northern region 26 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context (www.dartmouth.edu). Since 2000, floods in Ma- Construction of the Cahora Bassa project be- lawi have affected considerable number of people gan in 1969. Filling of the reservoir began in 1974 (180,000 in 2007; 80,000 in 2003; 250,000 in 2000; and was completed in 1976. Shortly thereafter civil and 500,000 in 2001). Lower Shire flooding gener- war broke out in Mozambique, and Cahora Bassa ally combines with flooding of the Lower Zambezi and Songo became a militarized enclave with little floodplain downstream of Lupata Gorge. communication with downstream areas. When the power line linking Cahora Bassa to South Africa Floods in the Lower Zambezi River flood was sabotaged in the early 1980s, the reservoir op- plains (downstream of Cahora Bassa Dam) erated at a reduced level. No significant outflows were released for the subsequent 20 years, except Flooding of the Lower Zambezi floodplain down- in 1978 between February to July and during a few stream of Lupata Gorge--located some 80 kilo- floods during the 1980s and 1990s. As a result of meters downstream of the city of Tete in Mozam- low releases at Cahora Bassa after the loss of the bique--is a natural phenomenon that has been miti- main power lines linking Songo to the Apollo sta- gated since 1962 by the operation of Lake Kariba, tion in South Africa, people started settling in the and more recently since 1975 by the operation of floodplain areas, primarily to practice recession Lake Cahora Bassa. irrigation. Beilfuss and Santos (2001) remarked "after the In 1978, flooding on the Lower Zambezi caused completion of Kariba Dam in 1959, large flooding an estimated $62 million worth of damage. Flood events in the Zambezi Delta region were greatly relief operations cost about $40 million (Beilfuss and curtailed". The 1969 flood was not remarkable in Santos 2001). HidroEléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB) terms of the peak water levels in the Delta (about operating data indicate that between February and 7.39 meters), but water levels remained above flood July 1978, the Cahora Bassa reservoir received an stage for 222 days from early January through inflow of 22.28 km3 and released 20.63 km3. Unfor- mid-August. Local villagers refer to this strange tunately, no record is available at the Lupata gaug- dry-season flood as the Cheia Nabwariri ("water ing station to assess the contribution to flooding of coming from the ground"). The unusual pattern tributaries downstream of Cahora Bassa. The flood of flooding is the result of prolonged releases from resulted from a combination of emergency releases Kariba Reservoir. Kariba received a near-record from the Cahora Bassa Dam and heavy runoff from inflow volume of 79 km3--comparable to inflows Lower Zambezi tributaries. to Kariba Gorge during the 1958 flood season-- During 1978, prolonged rainfall in the Kariba including the third-highest recorded flood discharge catchment produced some of the highest inflows to from the headwaters region (8,204 m3 per second). the Kariba Reservoir on record. The Zambezi River Unlike the 1958 floods, however, most of this inflow Authority (ZRA) opened four of the six sluice gates volume was stored by the reservoir, and floodwaters at Kariba to prevent the overtopping of the dam. were subsequently discharged through the Kariba's Maximum discharge reached 7,300 m3 per second. sluice gates during the dry season to draw down Downstream, heavy runoff from the Luangwa catch- reservoir levels according to the design flood rule ment more than doubled the Zambezi River's flows curve. Kariba thus significantly reduced peak flood- below the Kariba, and the Cahora Bassa inflows ing in the Zambezi Delta, but at the same time greatly steadily increased to a monthly total of 13,894 m3 prolonged the total duration of flooding. In several per second. During this period, the Cahora Bassa other years during which runoff from the Zambezi operated with only three or four sluice gates open. headwaters regions was among the highest on In late March, however, water levels neared design record--including 1961 (6,032 m3 per second), 1962 capacity, and reservoir managers opened the re- (5,425 m3 per second), 1966 (5,233 m3 per second), maining sluice gates in rapid succession. On March 1968 (5,340 m3 per second), and 1970 (4,783 m3 per 30, reservoir levels reached 327.9 meters, and Ca- second)--there were relatively insignificant floods hora Bassa released a peak discharge of 14,900 m3 at Marromeu due to the Kariba regulation. per second with all eight sluice gates and the 27 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis emergency spill gate open. Peak discharge down- Luangwa Valley rose sharply from less than 4,000 m3 stream at Muturara surged to 19,500 m3 per second, per second to a peak of 12,170 m3 per second between and water levels at Marromeu spiked to 7.92 meters February 9 and 15, but then fell again below 4,000 (Beilfuss and Santos 2001). by February 25. The Cahora Bassa captured most of Many floodplain residents were unable to this brief surge, and maximum discharge from the evacuate to higher elevations in time, 45 people dam was only 2,000 m3 per second. Downstream died and more than 10,000 people were displaced. of the Cahora Bassa, however, the lower Basin ex- If the reservoir had released water in January and perienced the second-wettest year on record, with February, gradually stepping up the outflow to rivers in central Mozambique reaching flood stage 7,000 m3 per second, releases would have been sig- in mid-January. The Pungue River to the south nificantly less than the maximum of 10,163 m3 per reached its highest water levels in 30 years, and the second during the early part of April. This would road linking Beira to Zimbabwe was severed. Runoff have allowed adequate time to evacuate the most from the Shire Valley was the highest since the 1950s. flood-prone areas (Beilfuss and Santos 2001). At the Overall the flood peak was not remarkable--only the time, however, no medium-term inflow forecasting sixteenth-highest on record--but flooding known method was in place at Cahora Bassa, and com- as the Cheia N'selusso ("flood of ill-fortune") ripped munications between upstream and downstream through new settlements on the Zambezi River operators were practically nonexistent. banks. The media portrayed the flood as catastrophic In 1989, runoff from the Upper Zambezi was not and international evacuation efforts were widely sufficient to force the Kariba to spill floodwaters, televised (Beilfuss and Santos 2001). but heavy runoff from the Luangwa Valley gener- The most prolonged floods in the Zambezi ated a peak inflow of 14,436 m3 per second to the Delta since the construction of the Cahora Bassa Cahora Bassa Reservoir. The Cahora Bassa operated Dam occurred in 2001. Very heavy rainfall in the to attenuate inflows and reduced the magnitude headwaters region resulted in substantial inflows of downstream flooding. During peak flooding, into Lake Kariba, and the Kariba Dam spilled however, reservoir levels approached design ca- floodwaters for the first time since 1981. Rainfall in pacity, and outflows were rapidly stepped up from the middle Zambezi catchment was also heavy, and one sluice gate on February 6 to five sluice gates inflows to the Cahora Bassa peaked at 13,978 m3 per on February 12, reaching a maximum discharge of second on February 22 and again at 11,379 m3 per 7,938 m3 per second. Combined with heavy runoff second on March 15. As water levels in the Cahora from the plateau region, runoff in the Zambezi Delta Bassa reservoir approached design capacity, Mo- region surged to 11,000 m3 per second. Although zambican authorities plead privately and publicly this peak discharge was less than the mean annual with the ZRA to close the sluice gates and reduce peak discharge prior to Kariba regulation (about the Kariba outflows. Discharges from the Cahora 11,500 m3 per second), the flood caused widespread Bassa were stepped up to 9,000 m3 per second on damage to settlements that had encroached into the March 7­8 through five sluice gates. Downstream Delta floodplains. The flood is known locally as the Luia and Revubue Rivers discharged a steady Cheia Cassussa, remembered locally because flood 2,000­3,500 m3 per second, the Luenha contributed levels rose so rapidly there was no time to escape 1,000­1,500 m3 per second, and heavy rains in the (Beilfuss and Santos 2001). Shire Valley (that left five people dead and 22,454 In 1997, flooding in the Zambezi Delta reached people homeless) generated runoff from the Shire its highest level since 1978, with a peak of 7.61 me- Basin comparable to the 1997 floods. Water levels at ters at Marromeu. Flooding was generated almost the Marromeu climbed above flood stage on Janu- entirely within the Lower Zambezi catchment. Maxi- ary 20, and reached a maximum of 7.69 meters on mum runoff from the Zambezi headwaters region March 9. The navy began evacuating people from was only 1,758 m3 per second, one of the lowest the Delta region in January using rubber boats and peaks in the 75-year historic record, and the Kariba helicopters. An estimated total of 81 people died did not spill. Inflows to the Cahora Bassa from the and more than 155,000 people were displaced by 28 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context the floods (Hanlon 2001). The damage could have 2.2.2 droughts been considerably worse if Hurricane Elise, which struck central Mozambique a year earlier, had hit Droughts are a natural phenomenon resulting from the Delta region during peak flooding and forced variability in rainfall. The accepted practice for Cahora Bassa authorities to open more sluice gates dealing with droughts is to plan and design water (Beilfuss and Santos 2001). supply schemes around the flow available during In January and February of 2007, the Mozam- the worst recorded drought--not on the average bican government appealed for disaster relief and flow available in the river. It is therefore important to food for tens of thousands of people driven from ensure that flow records capture the worst drought their homes by the worst flooding in years. At on record. least 30 people were killed in Mozambique after Figure 2.15. shows a cumulative differential plot torrential rains across southern Africa caused the of the flow at Victoria Falls over the entire period Zambezi River to burst its banks. Although the gov- of its records (1907 to 2006). The plot illustrates the ernment learned the lessons of the 2001 floods, and extent to which flow deviates from the long-term swiftly launched missions by boat and helicopter to mean over time. There was a period of prolonged evacuate about 90,000 people from affected areas, drought from October 1907 to October 1920; and it rapidly ran short of food for those collected in 33 another prolonged drought began around 1980 and temporary camps, and lacked tents and other essen- had not yet broken by 2006. From this analysis it can tials for many of them. Up to 285,000 people living be concluded that the water resources simulation along the Zambezi River valley were affected by the must include at least an early drought sequence or flood waters (www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/ the most recent drought sequence. Since most of the feb/19/naturaldisasters.chrismcgreal). gauging stations in the Zambezi River Basin were In 2008, the stretch of the Zambezi River from only constructed in the 1960s, there are insufficient Tete city to the river's mouth (500 kilometers to data on the early drought period. The later drought the east) was well above flood-alert level. All the period was therefore used. Zambezi River's main tributaries--the Shire, the Figure 2.16. shows the cumulative differential Revubue, and the Luenha--were also at very high plot of the simulation period selected (October 1962 levels and there were widespread impact on food to September 2002). A cumulative differential plot of production. A short overview of the hazardous Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa is also shown to dem- impact of major floods between 1963 and 2008 is onstrate that the pattern of drought is not consistent presented in table 2.3. throughout the Basin (figure 2.17.). Table 2.3. Summary of major hazardous floods (1963­2008) Number of Estimated damages Maximum monthly Year Month of peak flood Number of deaths affected people (US$ million) flow in Tete (m3/s) 1963 December to February ­ ­ ­ 12,611 1969 February ­ ­ ­ 10,993 1970 December ­ ­ ­ 9,988 1971 January ­ ­ ­ 11,717 1978 January and March 45 100,000 62 13,990 1989 February ­ ­ ­ 10,583 2001 February 15 260,000 43 9,917 2007 January and February 29 285,000 71 ­ 2008 January 6 200,000 100 ­ 29 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 2.15. Zambezi River flow at Victoria Falls (1907­2006) Zambezi River ow at Victoria Falls (1907­2006) Di erential mass curve 100,000 80,000 60,000 Cumulative deviation from long -term average (m3/s) 40,000 20,000 0 ­20,000 ­40,000 ­60,000 ­80,000 ­100,000 ­120,000 Oct-07 Oct-17 Oct-27 Oct-37 Oct-47 Oct-57 Oct-67 Oct-77 Oct-87 Oct-97 2006 Figure 2.16. Zambezi River flow at Victoria Falls (1962­2002) Zambezi River ow at Victoria Falls (1962-2002) Di erential mass curve 80,000 70,000 Cumulative deviation from long term average (m3/s) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 ­10,000 Oct-62 Oct-72 Oct-82 Oct-92 2002 2.3 cliMaTechange The Zambezi River has a low runoff efficiency (that is, volume of runoff per unit of area) and the Basin Climate variability has always affected the Zambezi has a high dryness index (dryness of the vegeta- River Basin. In Mozambique, for example, a drought tion based on remote sensing), indicating a high year is best described as a year without major floods. sensitivity to climate variability. Global warming 30 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Figure 2.17. Flow into Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (1954­2000) 25,000 20,000 Cumulative change from long term average (m3/s) 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 ­5,000 ­10,000 ­15,000 ­20,000 Nov-54 Apr-57 Sep-59 Feb-62 Jul-64 Dec-66 May-69 Oct-71 Mar-74 Aug-76 Jan-79 Jun-81 Nov-83 Apr-86 Sep-88 Feb-91 Jul-93 Dec-95 May-98 Oct-00 is expected to increase this variability and to raise bwe, western Mozambique, southern Malawi, and temperatures (Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2008a). Zambia show that multi-decade rainfall oscillations The ZRB receives a mean annual rainfall of have occurred during the 20th century. The models about 950 millimeters. Most of this is concentrated generally show a drying trend for much of the 21st in a single season. There is considerable variability century, although decade-to-decade rainfall fluctua- across the Basin; some parts of the Basin are arid tions should continue. or semiarid while others receive large amounts of The simulated annual climatic cycles in a warm- rainfall. The high spatial variability is exacerbated er climate show that the rainfall season may begin by the fact that areas of high water demand do not one month later than the recorded norm, effectively have high rainfall. Climate change is expected to shortening the duration of the rainy seasons. This materialize through changes in extreme events such delayed seasonal rainfall onset is predicted in the as droughts and floods, affecting agricultural crop northern parts of southern Africa as well. and livestock production as well as wildlife popula- Extremely low rainfall is predicted to become tion. Furthermore, rising temperatures are expected more common over central South Africa and Leso- to affect fish production from the major lakes and tho, increasing about 50 percent by around 2100. reservoirs, to cause higher evaporation from those Most models simulate an increase in extreme dry main water bodies, and to reduce the productivity of events over the Kalahari of up to 30 percent. This main agricultural crops. The ecosystems of the wet- is likely to prompt an eastward expansion of the lands will be affected by changing runoff patterns. desert. According to the IPCC models, the frequency Precise assessments of climate change in Africa of extremely dry austral winters and springs will are not yet complete and are often limited to mean increase to roughly 20 percent, while the frequency temperature and precipitation. Relatively little is of extremely wet austral summers will double in known about changes in extremes. For southern southern Africa. Africa, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Adapting to climate change requires strate- Change (IPCC) distinguishes four zones with a gies to meet four objectives: to strengthen flood more or less uniform rainfall pattern. Area-averaged management and support it at the regional level; rainfall series for northeast South Africa, Zimba- to improve regional and national drought-coping 31 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 2.18. presents temperature anomalies in Figure 2.18. Temperature anomalies in relation to 1906 to 2005 for southern Africa (black line) southern Africa as simulated by IPCC climate models (area shaded red) and as projected for 2001 to 2100 (area shaded orange). Southern Africa The bars at the end of the area shaded orange represent the range of projected scenarios for 2091 to 2100 in rela- 8 tion to estimated carbon dioxide (CO2) emission (low in blue, medium in orange, and high in red). Figure 2.19. presents the annual mean tempera- 4 ºC ture change between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099 for December to February, and June to August. The 0 bottom row reflects fractional change in precipita- tion. Table 2.4. presents the percentage reduction in 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Basin yield for the five major subareas of the ZRB year as well as the percentage irrigation deficit for year Source: IPCC 2007. 2030 as a result of a 1.5 centigrade increase in ambi- ent temperature. The assumptions related to the above changes mechanisms; to reassess the adequacy of river in Basin yield and irrigation deficit are: regulation and consider the enhancement of infra- structure; and to make use of the changed regional · Percent change relates to historic (CRU 1961­90). and global development opportunities presented · Method is weighted by an average based on the by climate change--in particular by using the Basin U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Class 4 catch- as a carbon sink. ment area. Figure 2.19. Temperature and precipitation changes over Africa Annual DJF JJA 40ºN 40ºN 10ºC 7 5 20ºN 20ºN 20ºN 4 3.5 Temp response (ºC) 3 0º 0º 0º 2.5 2 1.5 1 20ºS 20ºS 20ºS 0.5 0 ­0.5 ­1 40ºS 40ºS 40ºS 20ºW 0º 20ºE 40ºE 60ºE 20ºW 0º 20ºE 40ºE 60ºE 20ºW 0º 20ºE 40ºE 60ºE 40ºN 40ºN 40ºN 50% 30 20ºN 20ºN 20ºN 20 15 Prec response (ºC) 10 5 0º 0º 0º 0 ­5 ­10 20ºS 20ºS 20ºS ­15 ­20 ­30 ­50 40ºS 40ºS 40ºS 20ºW 0º 20ºE 40ºE 60ºE 20ºW 0º 20ºE 40ºE 60ºE 20ºW 0º 20ºE 40ºE 60ºE Source: IPCC 2007. 32 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context above sea level) falling within the Montane biome. Table 2.4. Impact of climate change on the Zambezi These make up 2.5 percent of the Basin's total area. River Basin in year 2030 The Montane biome is characterized by a temper- % change in 2030 ate climate and moist forest, heath, and grassland Region/subbasin Basin yield Irrigation deficit cover. The fauna and flora are similar to those of the Eastern Escarpment Mountains, which stretch from Delta ­13 27 Ethiopia through Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania Middle Zambezi ­24 17 to the Drakensberg and the southwestern cape in Upper Zambezi ­16 13 South Africa. The Montaine biome corresponds to Kafue ­34 21 the Afromontane phytochorion, which is a center of Shire River and Lake endemism (White 1983). Its vegetation is markedly ­14 15 Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa different from surrounding areas and has a rich Source: World Bank 2009. diversity of species, rainforest, montane grasslands, and fynbos-like shrubland. The southeastern corner of the Basin, corresponding to one percent of its total · Emission scenario A1B. area, is located in the Coastal biome. This is a tropi- · Global Circulation Model: midrange of 23 cal area with dry forest, woodland, and grassland. models. Species within the Coastal biome are typical of those on the East African coastline. The biome corresponds to parts of the Zanzibar-Inhambane phytochorion, 2.4 overviewoFThebasin which is a regional transitional zone (White 1983). biophysics Seventy-five percent of the Basin's area lies within the part of the Zambezian Biome that re- 2.4.1 biomesandriverzones ceives considerable rainfall. The swamps and pans, making up four percent of the Basin, are highly Biomes are communities classified by their vegeta- productive and economically vital (Timberlake tion and organisms. Along the Zambezi River Basin, 2000). They provide a wealth of natural resources there are four main biomes and three phytochoria, such as fish, materials for construction and crafts, i.e. broad areas of plant assemblages (White 1983 in and grazing for livestock. Because of the year-round Timberlake 2000). presence of water and ecosystem services, many Virtually the entire Basin--95 percent--is in people depend on them for livelihood and settle- the Zambezian biome. This is a subtropical area of ment. Important wetland plants for construction moist or dry woodland and grassland that experi- and craft include papyrus (Cyperus papyrus), rushes ences a marked dry season. The Zambezian biome (Typha), and reeds (Phragmites). Many plants, such is sometimes divided into areas of greater moisture, as the water lily (Nymphaea), are used for food. characterized by miombo broad-leaved woodland Certain wetland plants that have been introduced to cover, and areas that are drier, with mopane, or the wetlands have become pests. Plants such as the Acacia woodland cover. This corresponds to part of water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), water lettuce the Zambezian phytochorion, which is a center of (Pistia stratiotes), Kariba weed (Salvinia molesta), and endemism (White 1983). The northwest part of the water fern (Azolla), are causing problems includ- Basin, 1.5 percent of its total area, lies in the Congo- ing hypoxia that leads to fish mortality, blockage lian biome. This is a tropical area of high forest cover of channels by excess vegetation, and spread of that experiences high rainfall and does not have a disease-causing aquatic invertebrates. clearly defined dry season. This biome roughly cor- The Zambezi River biophysical system is com- responds to the area of the shared boundary between monly organized into three sections: the Zambezi River and the Congo River systems. The eastern part of the Basin is composed of a scat- · The Upper Zambezi (from the headwaters to ter of areas at higher altitude (1,800­2,000 meters Victoria Falls) is characterized by a vast inland 33 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis drainage basin with little topographical relief. is defined as "a large area of land or water contain- Rivers have merged with others through slight ing a distinct assemblage of natural (plant and geological movements and this, along with a animal) communities and species . . . whose bound- relatively flat terrain and few natural physi- ary approximates its original extent before major cal barriers, has allowed aquatic organisms to land-use changes" (Thieme and others 2005). Bio- migrate along rivers and across floodplains regions are combinations of ecoregions with similar through a large part of the subcontinent. biogeographic histories. Eleven bioregions and 93 · The Middle Zambezi (from Victoria Falls to freshwater ecoregions were delineated, with the the Lupata Gorge, downstream of Tete in Mo- ecoregion boundaries usually following drainage zambique) is a younger, more heterogeneous basin boundaries. Eight ecoregions encompass the landscape that includes the Luangwa Valley, ZRB (each is summarized, along with its conserva- most of northern Zimbabwe, and Lake Malawi/ tion priority class, in tables 2.5. and 2.6.). Niassa/Nyasa. The river's biological characters have been substantially modified by the Kariba The Upper Zambezi ­ ecoregion 76, and Cahora Bassa dams. Zambezian Headwaters · The Lower Zambezi (from Lupata Gorge to the coast) includes the lower Shire River down- This ecoregion of savanna-dry forest rivers covers stream of Kapichira Falls. This part of the Zam- the headwater reaches of the Okavango, Zambezi, bezi River is characterized by floodplains, anas- and Kafue Rivers. Lying mostly in Angola, with tomosing and braided channels, and shifting some parts in Zambia, it is bioregionally outstand- sandbanks with extensive grasslands, swamps, ing with a conservation status of "relatively intact" dunes, and mangroves along the coast. and a conservation priority class of V. It encompass- es the headwaters of the major upper tributaries: the The estimated numbers of recorded animal and Lungúe Bungo, Luanginga, Cuando/Chobe, Luena, plant species found in the ZRB indicate the presence Dongwe, and Kabompo Rivers; the Kafue River and of 200 mammal species, 700 bird species (of which its major tributary; and, the Lunga River. 15­20 are endemic to the Basin and 167 linked to In the early tertiary period, the drainage of wetlands), 165 fish species with more than 500 the Upper Zambezi region through the Cunene, species endemic to Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, Okavango, Upper Zambezi, and Kafue Rivers was 200 reptile species, and about 90 amphibian species toward the southwest, emptying into the sea in the (Chenje 2000). Apart from 210 dragonfly species, proximity of the present-day Orange River mouth. 1,100 butterfly species, and 98 mollusk species, the This, in addition to the capture of rivers along the invertebrate fauna is understudied. The number of Zambezi-Congo divide, resulted in a very similar set species is likely to be in the hundreds of thousands. of fish to be found in the headwaters of these rivers. The Basin's main hotspot for biodiversity is Lake In the Plio-Pleistocene period, the Upper Zambezi Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, with its extraordinary pro- and the Kafue were captured by the Middle Zam- liferation of fish species and other faunal groups. For bezi, but this had minimal effect on the fish species example, 47 of the 98 mollusk species in the Basin of the headwaters because the Kafue Gorge and appear in Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, of which Victoria Falls presented impassable barriers for 23 species are endemic. Scattered throughout the upstream migration (Skelton 1994). Basin are areas with rare or endemic species and These upland tropical rivers are perennial and areas with very high numbers of animals. characteristically steep in places, but also include extensive networks of grassy dambos--seasonally 2.4.2 bioregionsandecoregions waterlogged areas--along drainage lines. There is dense gallery forest along the major watercourses In 1998, an international group of freshwater spe- and some dense patches of evergreen forest, with cialists delineated a preliminary set of bioregions very rare species of great conservation importance and freshwater ecoregions for Africa. An ecoregion such as Marquesia, Berlinia giorgii, and Lannea 34 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Table 2.5. Zambezi River Basin Ecoregions Bioregion Main freshwater ecoregions in the Zambezi River Basin Freshwater ecoregion number Floodplains, swamps, and lakes Kafue 8 Upper Zambezi floodplains 16 Highland and mountain systems Mulanje 43 Large lakes Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa 53 Savanna--dry forest rivers Zambezian headwaters 76 Zambezian (Plateau) Highveld 78 Middle Zambezi Luangwa 69 Lower Zambezi 66 Source: Thieme and others 2005. Table 2.6. Priority classification system for conservation action, based on biological distinctiveness and conservation status Priority class for conservation Description I Globally outstanding ecoregions that are highly threatened. II Continentally outstanding ecoregions that are highly threatened. III Globally or continentally outstanding ecoregions with relatively intact aquatic systems. IV Bioregionally outstanding and nationally important ecoregions that are highly threatened. V Bioregionally outstanding and nationally important ecoregions with relatively intact aquatic systems. Source: Thieme and others 2005. antiscorbutica. Along the broad seasonal rivers, The ecoregion is understudied, and data on fringes of large riverine trees include the winter the biota are generally limited. Five fish species are thorn (Faidherbia albida), natal mahogany (Trichilia thought to be endemic to the headwaters of this emetica), acacia and waterberry (Syzygium). Because ecoregion: the ghost stonebasher (Paramormyrops the riparian forests are extremely important to jacksoni), cubango kneria (Parakneria fortuita), wildlife habitat and protect river banks from ero- southern deepbody (Hypsopanchax jubbi), gorgeous sion, their conservation and economic value is high barb (Barbus bellcrossi), and yangambi butterbarbel (Timberlake 2000). (Schilbe yangambianus). A second kneria (Kneria The dambos are sinks for nutrients and are polli), and the stargazer mountain catfish (Amphili- therefore areas of intense biological activity. The us uranoscopus) are also typical of these reaches. ancient floodplains have supported speciation in The Nile crocodile (Crocodylus niloticus) is to be bulbous plants and woody "underground trees" found in the rivers, and two rare dragonfly species (suffrutices) that have adapted to poor drainage are near-endemic to the ecoregion. and frequent frosts and fires by growing under- Major conservation areas in the Zambezi Head- ground trunks. Such species, present in the Upper water ecoregion are the Kameia National Park, the Zambezi floodplains or associated Kalahari sands, Luiana Partial Reserve, and the Mavinga Partial include the sand apple (Parinari capensis), Annona Reserve in Angola; and, the Liuwa Plain National stenophylla, the legume Cryptosepalum exfoliatum, Park (which includes part of Luanginga River) and and Trichilia quadrivalvis (White 1976 in Timber- the West Lunga National Park (Lunga and Kabompo lake 2000) Rivers) in Zambia. The rivers are mostly undis- 35 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis turbed, with low population density, but farming floodplain system, which begins where the Cuando and logging is expected to increase and intensify. River enters Botswana. The Chobe floodplain sys- tem is part of the southern Barotse Floodplain. The The Upper Zambezi Floodplains ­ ecoregion Linyanti swamp can expand to about 300 km2 and 16 floods in August, later than the upstream ones, due to the delaying effect of the Phragmites-Typha- The Upper Zambezi floodplain ecoregion contains Cyperus swamps in the river valley. Downstream of floodplains, swamps, and lakes. The region begins at Linyanti swamp, Lake Liambezi has a water surface the confluence of the Lungúe Bungo, Zambezi, and area of 100 km2 when full, with 200 km2 of border- Kabompo rivers and covers southwestern Zambia, ing swamp vegetation. The total estimated areas of southeastern Angola, the Caprivi Strip in Namibia, wetlands in this region are 250­1,000 km2 of swamp and the northern edge of Botswana. It extends and 1,670­1,870 km2 of floodplain. through the Barotse Floodplain to the Victoria Falls. The wetlands support extensive and clearly It is seen as nationally important, relatively intact, defined flooded grasslands and swamp vegetation and has a conservation priority class of V. in the Barotse Floodplain, but these are intermixed This region is essentially a large, shallow, al- with a mosaic of woodlands in the eastern Caprivi. luvial basin. Its gentle slopes and moderate rainfall Floodplain grass species in wetter areas include have supported the development of extensive Acroceras macrum, Brachiaria arrecta, Digitaria, Echi- floodplains and swamps. These are maintained by nocloa pyramidalis, and Oryza longistaminata. Deeper frequent floods, which inundate the floodplains channels are dominated by the reed Phragmitis and swamps for long periods. The area acts as a mauritianus along with stands of Cyperus papyrus, Hi- large water storage facility that responds to floods biscus diversiflius, Urena lobata, Persicaria senegalensis, by expansion and contraction of the water area Aeschynomne uniflora, and the grasses E. pyramidalis, rather than by significant rises and falls of the water E. stagnina, and Vossia cuspidate. level. The average flood height of the river is 5.2 The ecoregion provides rich breeding and meters. Extensive rapids are interspersed among feeding grounds for a rich set of fish species and the slow, swampy stretches, mainly between Nan- herpetofauna, with a near-endemic radiation of gweshi and Katima Mulilo, and Mombava to Vic- large riverine cichlids. The floodplain fish migrate toria Falls. Gonye Falls, 300 kilometers upstream onto floodplains with the first floods in November from Victoria Falls, is 21 meters--sufficiently high through December to spawn. Juvenile fish benefit to constitute a barrier to the movement of fish in from the abundant food in the newly wetted and the dry season. well-oxygenated conditions, in the shallow waters, In the Upper Zambezi floodplain ecoregion, the and among vegetation that acts as a cover from Zambezi River receives water from the Cuando (also predators. Fish communities are dominated by called Kwando or Mashi) and Lungúe Bungo riv- cyprinids, cichlids, and mochokid catfish, with ers and--very rarely, in times of exceptionally high a wide evolutionary radiation of cichlid species, rainfall--from the Okavango system via the Chobe including six Serranochromis species that eat snails, River. The Chobe can flow either way, depending on mussels, and crustaceans, and five Sargochromis water levels in it and in the Zambezi River, facilitat- predatory species. In terms of herpetofauna, the ing interchange of biotas between the two systems. ecoregion is richer in species than the rest of the Three major floodplains are highly important system, with the Barotse Floodplain supporting 89 in terms of the ecoregion's biodiversity. The Barotse species, including at least one frog endemic to the Floodplain extends from Lukulu to Nangweshi, and ecoregion, Ptychadena mapacha. Water birds also is 240 kilometers long, up to 35 kilometers wide, and occur in large congregations, some breeding, with has a flooded area of 7,500 km2. The eastern Caprivi/ the Barotse Floodplain supporting more than 20,000 southern Barotse Floodplain is located between ruff (Philomachus pugnax), a non-breeding Palearctic Sesheke and Maramba and is 100 kilometers long. migrant, 10,000 cattle egrets (Bubulcus ibis), and This is partly contiguous with the Chobe-Linyanti large populations of reed cormorant (Phalacrocorax 36 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context africanus), open-billed stork (Anastomus lemelligerus), the floodplain to spawn, and at least one species, Caspian plover (Charadrius asiaticus), and whiskered N. kafuensis, needs two concurrent wet seasons for tern (Chlidonias hydridus). eggs to hatch. Alien species that threaten the natu- Threatened species include the wattled crane ral fish communities include Oreochromis niloticus (Grus caranculatus, found in the Linyanti swamp, and water hyacinth. A series of falls in the Kafue Liuwa plain, Barotse Floodplain, and Chobe- Gorge presents the main physical barrier to fish Linyati), the vulnerable slaty egret (Egretta vina- movement upstream from the Middle Zambezi. The ceigula), the Nile crocodile, the broadhead catfish ichthyofauna resembles that of the Okavango, Up- (Clariallabes platyprosopos, found in Katima Mulilo), per Zambezi, and Cunene Rivers. It also has some and the striped killifish (Nothobranchius, found in species in common with the Chambesi tributary of Gunkwe and Bunkalo). Mammals such as the red the Congo River, reflecting a history of suspected lechwe and sitatunga are now largely confined to river capture of the Kafue by the Middle Zambezi protected areas; very little game has been spotted and the Chambesi by the Luapula. on the floodplains over the past 40 years (Turpie Large congregations of water birds, includ- and others 1999). ing the largest population of wattled crane in the Major protected and conservation areas include region, use the flats for feeding and nesting. Other the Mamili National Park, the Liuwa Plain National important species are the slaty egret, long-tailed Park, the Sioma Ngwezi National Park, and the West cormorant (Phalacrocorax africanus), cattle egret Zambezi Game Management Area. (Bubulcus ibis), African open-billed stork (Anastomus lamelligerus), fulvous whistling duck (Dendrocygna The Kafue ­ ecoregion 8 pratincola), comb duck (Sarkidiornis melanotos), col- lared pratincole (Glareola pratincola), Caspian plover This ecoregion of floodplains, swamps, and lakes (Charadrius asiaticus), and ruff (Philomachus pugnax). extends over the Kafue system from central Zam- Migratory mammals are a significant feature of the bia to its confluence with the Middle Zambezi. It is floodplains. About half of the remaining lechwe in deemed nationally important, vulnerable, and with Africa, Kobus leche leche and K.l. kafuensis, migrate a priority status of V. It does not include the Kafue here. K.l. kafuensis is endemic to Kafue Flats in the headwaters--parts of the Lufupa, Lunga, Luswishi, vicinity of the Kafue Gorge and the Itezhi Tezhi and upper Kafue--which are in Ecoregion 76. It Dam (ITT). contains the extensive, seasonally inundated flood- Important protected areas include the Kafue plains of the Kafue Flats, which stretch 250 kilome- National Park and associated Game Management ters from the Itezhi Tezhi to the Kafue Gorge, and Area, the Blue Lagoon National Park, the Lochinvar to the Lukanga swamp (a 260,000 hectare Ramsar National Park (upstream of the Gorge), and parts site since 2005). These features earn the river rec- of the Nampongwe River. The last two are part of ognition as a reservoir river, with floods stored on the Kafue Flats Ramsar site (600,500 hectares since the extensive floodplains and released slowly back August 1991). into the river. Inundation of floodplains occurs from January to June, when water depths average three The Middle Zambezi Luangwa ­ ecoregion 69 meters and provide spawning and nursery areas for the abundant fish communities. This ecoregion, Savanna-Dry Forest Rivers, is de- The seasonal flooding of the Kafue is the most fined by the Middle Zambezi and Luangwa Rivers important ecological process maintaining biodiver- and covers parts of Zambia, northern Zimbabwe, sity in the region. Two of the 60 known fish species and western Mozambique. Along the Zambezi, the are endemic to the ecoregion. These are the killifish ecoregion extends from Victoria Falls to the Cahora (Nothobranchius kafuensis) and the cyprinid (Barbus Bassa Gorge and along the Luangwa River from altidorsalis). Many of the other species do not have a its headwaters to the Zambezi confluence. It has a much wider distribution than the flats. Largemouth conservation status of endangered, with a priority bream, tilapias, and many small barbs migrate onto conservation class IV. It is seen as a nationally im- 37 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis portant ecoregion. Both valleys are fertile compared In the Luangwa Valley, important bird species to the nutrient-poor Upper Zambezi. that feed in the receding floodwaters include the In the Middle Zambezi Luangwa ecoregion, yellow-billed stork (Mycteria ibis), open-billed stork the Zambezi flows through a series of gorges and (Anastomus lamelligerus), white pelican (Pelecanus narrow valleys and has been extensively modified onocrotalus), great white egret (Egreeta alba), and by the reservoirs and the Kariba and Cahora Bassa goliath heron (Ardea goliath). Salt pans support large dams. Floodplains and wetlands are limited, and the flocks of southern crowned cranes (Balearica regu- regulation of flow has reduced flood volumes, en- lorum), and flooded mopane woodlands are used hanced sedimentation in some places and erosion in for breeding by tens of thousands of knob-billed others, and increased the extent of lake-like habitats, (Sarkidiornis melanotos) and white-faced (Dendro- which has led to a changed composition of the fish cygna viduata) ducks. Palearctic and intra-African communities. Specialized rock-loving species have migrants abound in the warm rainy season southern declined or disappeared from some stretches of the carmine bee-eaters (Merops nubicoides) nest in the river. Aquatic pest plants, such as water hyacinth sandy river banks, and the eastern population of and water lettuce, initially proliferated but are now white stork (Ciconia ciconia) use the valley as a major less abundant. Dense beds of Phragmites reeds grow overwintering ground. on previously bare sandbanks. The Luangwa Floodplain is a Ramsar site since By contrast, the Luangwa River draining much February 2007 and covers an area of 250,000 hect- of eastern Zambia is unregulated and pristine. In the ares. dry season it is a slow-flowing river, meandering be- tween sandy banks, but in the wet season its width The Zambezian Highveld/Plateau ­ spreads to several kilometers, filling ox-bow lakes ecoregion 78 and dambos, and flooding grassland. The Cahora Bassa reservoir has a high level of clay particles, The Zambezi Plateau is a high-altitude, cool ecore- which are carried in floods. Much of the Luangwa gion classified as a savanna-dry forest rivers ecosys- Valley is formally protected as national parks and tem. It is seen as nationally important and critically game management areas. endangered, with a priority conservation class of The ecoregion as a whole supports the endan- IV. The ecoregion is contained in Zimbabwe and gered marsh mongoose (Herpestes palustris), the includes highlands streams and headwaters of some African clawless otter (Aonyx capensis), the spotted- Zambezi tributaries (including the Lundi, Pungwe, neck otter (Lutra maculicollis), and the hippopota- Manyame, and Mazowe) as well as the Save River mus (Hippopotamus amphibius). Species records are in the east. The area is characterized by large and far from complete, but indicate the existence of small rivers, dambos, artificial reservoirs, and a few 61 fishes, 49 amphibians, four reptiles (including floodplains. The perennially waterlogged dambos the Nile crocodile), 27 mollusks, 18 dragonflies, 52 are widespread, with a total area of about 12,000 damselflies, three wetland butterflies, and about 700 km2, and provide dry-season flow to the streams. bird species. Some parts of the system are extremely Prominent wetlands are the perennial cluster of rich in species and wildlife diversity. The Luangwa pools in the Lundi River Valley known as Chip- River supports extensive populations of crocodiles inda Pools and the 40 km2 Save-Runde Floodplain, and hippopotamus, as well as important popula- including the Tamboharta Pan, in the southeast tions of Thornicroft's giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis part of the ecoregion, which is largely devoid of thornicrofti), Cookson's wildebeest (Connochaetes floodplains. Both wetlands provide watering areas taurinus cooksoni), and the water-dependent puku for large mammals and are rich in bird life. (Kobus vardonnii). Mana Pools, downstream of the The ecoregion has no known endemic species. Kariba Dam, supports crocodiles, 40 fish species, Mammals include the March mongoose, African and more than 380 bird species. It is also an impor- clawless otter, and hippopotamus. Species records tant staging post for migratory water birds such as exist for 39 fishes, 38 amphibians, eight reptiles, 17 Lilian's lovebird (Agapornis lilianae). mollusks, and one wetland butterfly species. The 38 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context rivers, including the Pungwe and Save, appear to 221 mollusks, 25 dragonflies, and 84 wetland plant be impoverished in fish species, while the dambos species. The Lower Shire has 63 fish species re- support more than 100 species of vascular plants corded, five typical of the Lake Malawi/Niassa/ including eight that are endemic. Nyasa ecoregion and not occurring in the rest of the One of the ecoregion's important protected Lower Zambezi. A lower Shire tributary, the Ruo, areas is the Gonarzhou National Park (Chipinda has a unique relict fish species above the Zoa Falls, Pools). the only known to be endemic to this ecoregion. The reptiles include the hinged terrapin (Pelusios The Lower Zambezi ­ ecoregion 66 castanoides), the Nile monitor (Varanus niloticus), and the Nile crocodile. The area is recognized as being The Lower Zambezi is also an ecoregion classified inadequately studied. as a savanna-dry forest rivers ecosystem. It is seen The Delta supports water bird species of global as nationally important and endangered, with a concern, such as the wattled crane and African priority conservation class of IV. It stretches from skimmer (Rynchops flavirostris), the last of which the Cahora Bassa Dam to the coast, encompassing has suffered from the loss of sandy nesting sites. the Lower Shire River and falling mostly in Mo- Large breeding colonies of white pelicans, storks, zambique. Downstream of the Cahora Bassa Dam and herons are found there. As a result of the to the Lupata Gorge and 70 kilometers downstream harnessing of floods by upstream dams and conse- of Tete, the Zambezi is mostly contained within a quent dewatering of floodplains and reduction of clearly defined channel. From below the gorge to the sediment-maintained habitats, however, numbers sea, the channel becomes wider, with many anas- have dropped over the past 30 years. tomosing channels and shifting sandbanks. Down- Important protected areas include the Mar- stream of the Shire-Zambezi confluence, it forms a romeu Buffalo Reserve, an area of floodplain large deltaic floodplain system. The delta proper grasslands and a 688,000-hectare Ramsar wetland is generally seen as starting at Mopeia, about 120 site since 2004. In addition, the 17,000-hectare kilometers from the coast, where the Rio Cuacula Nhapakwe Forest Reserve is outside the actual splits and flows east toward Quelimane while the wetland. There are also three hunting concessions main stream flows southeast. covering a total of 528,000 hectares, much of which The delta as a whole is a mixture of woodlands, is in the wetlands. savanna, mangroves, and coastal dunes, with a complex mosaic of wetlands. The southern portion, The Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa ­ ecoregion around Marromeu, is a wetland area of significant 53 biodiversity importance, with extensive areas of la- goons, papyrus, aquatic grasslands, and mangroves. Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa is an ecoregion defined Much of the sediment load historically moving by the drainage basin of Lake Malawi/Niassa/ through the system and onto the floodplains is now Nyasa. It is classified as a large lake ecoregion, trapped by the Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams. The globally outstanding, and vulnerable; it has the Shire River is now the major contributor to flood- highest priority classification of I. The lake is the plain sediments. As a result, channel morphology is southernmost of the deep-water lakes of the East changing downstream (Davies, Beilfuss, and Thoms African Rift Valley and the only natural large lake 2000), and the coastal zone is eroding, causing the in the Basin (Timberlake 2000). loss of coastal mangroves. Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa is the ninth-largest Biologically, the ecoregion is a crossroads lake in the world and the fourth-deepest, with a between the Middle Zambezi, the eastern coastal surface area of about 29,000 km2. More than 200 rivers, the Malawi region, and brackish and marine rivers flow into Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, most species. Freshwater species estimates for the ecore- of them ephemeral and the outflowing Shire River gion include 94 fishes (mostly floodplain dwellers), passes through Lake Malombe on its way south 73 water birds, 19­28 amphibians, several reptiles, to drain into the Lower Zambezi. The Kapichira 39 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis cataract within Murchison Falls on the Lower Shire 2.4.3 conclusion forms an absolute physical barrier to upstream movement of fish species, isolating the lake from From a continental perspective, there are four areas the rest of the Zambezi system. of particularly outstanding and biodiversity impor- The area is one of outstanding biodiversity, sup- tance in the Basin. These are: porting one of the richest sets of lake fish species in the world. Ninety-nine percent of the more than 800 · Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, which is a region cichlid fish species and more than 70 percent of the of global conservation importance because of 17 clariids are endemic to the ecoregion; it is thought the evolutionary radiation of fish groups and that there may be as many as 3,000 fish species or some other aquatic groups. recognizably different populations in the lake. This · The swamps, floodplains, and woodlands of the endemism is likely reflected in other fauna, such pale-Upper Zambezi in Zambia and northern as aquatic invertebrates, and also generally in the Botswana, including the areas of Barotseland, area's 200 mammals; 650 birds; 30 mollusks; and Busangu, Kafue, Okavango, and Bangweulu, 5,500 plant species. which together are thought to be areas of evolu- Important protected areas include the Lake tionary radiation for groups as disparate as the Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa National Park, part of which Reduncine antelope, suffrutices, and bulbous is a World Heritage site; the Liwonde National Park, plants. The meeting of three centers of distribu- which encompasses a small part of Lake Malombe; tion in the Barotse area has led to it supporting the Nkotakota National Park, which protects much very rich reptile and amphibian communities. of the Bua River catchments; the Lenwe National The floodplains, dambos, and grasslands of this Park, which is adjacent to Elephant Marsh; and, the area are some of the most extensive and least Majete Game Reserve. disturbed on the African continent and have an extremely high conservation value. · The Middle Zambezi Valley in northern Zim- The Mulanje ­ ecoregion 43 babwe and the Luangwa Valley in eastern Mulanje is an ecoregion with highland and moun- Zambia, which are not necessarily areas of tain ecosystems. It is nationally important and high biodiversity or endemism, but are two of endangered, with a conservation priority of IV. It the last remaining protected areas extensive is named after the Mulanje Massif, a large isolated enough to support large populations of large mountain massif in southeastern Malawi. Head- mammals. waters rising on the massif and flowing south form · The Gorongosa/Cheringoma/Zambezi Delta the Ruo River, which flows into the Shire River and area of central Mozambique, which covers an ultimately the Lower Zambezi. area of enormous habitat diversity not found in Those southern headwater streams are isolated such close proximity elsewhere on the continent from downstream reaches of the Shire-Zambezi sys- (Tinley 1977 in Timberlake 2000). tem by waterfalls of up to 200 meters, including Zoa Falls on the Ruo River. They support many relict and Each of these areas are vulnerable to and threat- endemic species and fish species that, overall, have ened by development activities in the Basin, such major differences from those of nearby river systems. as land clearance for agriculture, overharvesting Relict fish species include Hippopotamyrus ansorgii, of natural resources, damming of rivers, and the Barbus eutaenia, B. lineomaculatus, and Opsaridium introduction of alien aquatic species. zamezense. The biodiversity of other faunal groups and the flora is thought to be high. Out of 30 known amphibians, two species are endemic and two near- 2.5 MacroeconoMicoverview endemic; records exist of 22 dragonfly species. One of the ecoregion's important protected Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced steady growth areas is the Mulanje Mountain Forest Reserve. over an extended period. In 2007, growth was the 40 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Figure 2.20. Global GDP trends (1970­2007) Figure 2.21. GDP trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000­2007) 8 Real GDP Growth (%) 18 7 Real GDP Growth (%) 16 6 14 5 12 10 4 8 3 6 4 2 2 1 0 0 ­2 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000­07 ­4 Sub-Saharan Africa World Developing Countries 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Sub-Saharan Africa Oil-exporting countries Middle-income countries Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF, African Department database. Low-income countries Fragile countries Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF, African Department database. highest in a decade, reaching 6.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms (IMF 2008). ian countries are highly dependent on electricity Growth is being driven largely by domestic de- produced by hydropower plants in the Basin, and mand, but also by increased domestic investments to a lesser extent on coal and oil. and higher government spending as a result of higher The economies of the riparian countries can be oil revenues and debt relief. According to the IMF, broadly characterized as fast-growing with high in- sound macroeconomic policies have improved both come generation (centered on extraction of mineral oil revenue savings and general business environ- resources such as diamonds, oil, copper, and cobalt). ments, which in turn have reduced vulnerability At the same time, they have very high rates of poverty to external shocks. Inflation remains low for most with low levels of basic service coverage (table 2.7.). countries, and current account deficits have been The global economic crisis has had a significant restrained. The G8 commitment of doubling aid to effect on growth rates. Between 2007 and 2009 all Africa is not on track despite increased allocations. countries except Zimbabwe experienced a signifi- China is also stepping up assistance to the region. Pri- cant drop in GDP growth rates. Nevertheless, IMF vate capital flows to Sub-Saharan Africa reached $50 estimates indicate that a recovery is underway, with billion in 2007, and although still dwarfed by global increasing GDP growth rates in all countries except figures ($6.4 trillion in 2006), they overtook foreign aid Malawi (table 2.8.). for the first time. Although most was directed toward Nigeria and South Africa, a number of other countries 2.5.1 angola including Ghana, Uganda, and Zambia have also benefitted. Banking systems are improving, although Since 2001 several production sectors--oil, dia- the sector suffers from lack of depth and efficiency. monds, manufacturing, construction, processing, The ZRB is rich in natural resources. The key and services--have experienced steady growth. economic activities are fishery, mining, agriculture, Real GDP growth reached 18.6 percent in 2006, tourism, and manufacturing. Industries in the ripar- driven primarily by oil and diamond extraction.2 2 Quoted from IMF 2007a. 41 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 2.7. Macroeconomic data of Zambezi riparian countries (2006) Current account % Summary data 2006 Population `000 GDP $ million GDP/cap Inflation % of GDP Angola 15,864 45,167 2,847 12.2 23.3 Botswana 1,574 11,048 7,019 7.1 17.6 Malawi 13,122 3,164 241 8.1 ­6.2 Mozambique 20,041 6,776 338 7.9 19.7 Namibia 2,048 6,941 3,389 6.7 15.9 Tanzania 38,200 14,198 372 7.0 ­7.8 Zambia 11,873 10,893 917 10.7 1.1 Zimbabwe 11,732 1,437 122 10,452.0 ­6.0 Source: IMF 2008. Table 2.8. GDP change in constant prices (2007­2014) Estimates Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 start after Angola 20.3 13.2 0.2 9.3 8.4 5.4 6.5 6.1 2006 Botswana 4.4 2.9 ­10.3 4.1 8.5 13.8 8.9 2.1 2008 Malawi 8.6 9.7 5.9 4.6 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 2007 Mozambique 7.0 6.8 4.3 5.2 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.5 2008 Namibia 5.5 2.9 ­0.7 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 2007 Tanzania 7.1 7.4 5.0 5.6 6.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 2007 Zambia 6.3 5.8 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.1 2008 Zimbabwe ­6.9 ­14.1 3.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 2007 Source: IMF 2009a. Agricultural production is deemed to have high to 20 percent between 2005 and 2006. Angola's most potential in fostering diversification and further successful initiative in public financial management growth in the economy (presently eight percent of (PFM) and fiscal transparency continues to be the GDP). Inflation fell from 19 percent to 12 percent Sistema Integrado de Gestão Financeira do Estado during 2006. The nominal exchange rate held steady (SIGFE) (Integrated Financial Management Sys- throughout 2006 while the real exchange rate ap- tem). It covers all provinces and will be extended preciated by about six percent. The fiscal balance in 2007 to include some autonomous bodies and has shifted to surplus (reaching 15 percent of GDP new modules. The SIGFE has strengthened budget in 2006 against a six percent deficit in the budget), execution and reporting and information sharing. In but Angola has saved a smaller portion of its oil the private sector, however, the investment climate windfall than most other African oil producers. The needs improvement. external current account surplus widened to 23 per- Despite positive macroeconomic trends in cent of GDP in 2006, and official reserves doubled Angola, poverty remains deeply entrenched. Ap- and reached $8.5 billion, equivalent to about four proximately 70 percent of the population live on less months of imports of goods and services. The ex- than $2 per day, and the majority lack access to basic ternal debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 40 percent health care and services. Though infant mortality 42 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context has fallen, it is still high at 15.8 percent. Likewise, improved economic management capacity. Managing maternal mortality of 1,800 per 100,000 births is one potential scaling up of external aid is vital, as is the of the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Approximately ability to attract higher levels of external private and half the population lack access to safe drinking wa- public capital flows. Malawi's agricultural produc- ter and sanitation, which is a political priority. The tion constitutes more than 40 percent of the economy. HIV/AIDS infection rate is comparably low at 3.9 As a result, weather patterns deeply affect agricul- percent. Primary school enrollment is very low--56 tural production and GDP. Weak fiscal performance percent--and literacy skills need strengthening, between 1999­00 and 2003­04 brought the country to particularly among women. the verge of a financial crisis. As official development assistance (ODA) decreased, the large fiscal deficits 2.5.2 botswana of more than seven percent of GDP were financed largely by domestic borrowing. Consequently, debt At independence in 1966, Botswana was one of the increased sharply from less than three percent to 25 poorest countries in the world. Over the past 40 years, percent between 1999­00 to and 2003­04. Interest Botswana has grown at an average rate of 8.6 percent rates rose, and as a result, the government's do- per year, one of the fastest growth rates in the world. mestic interest bill shot up to a massive 9.2 percent As a result, it is now an upper-middle-income coun- in 2003­04. Since 2004, strict fiscal discipline led to try. The economy's dependence on natural resources improved performance. Inflation declined, donor exports has given rise to the "Dutch disease" effect budget support increased, and debt fell to 20 percent however, although severe symptoms have been of GDP in 2005­06. Despite the impact of the severe prevented by good policies and institutions (for ex- food crisis in 2005, the Reserve Bank has gradually ample, Botswana is the largest exporter of diamonds, reduced the nominal discount rate from 45 to 20 which account for 80 percent of exports but only percent between 2003 and 2006. Private investment five percent of employment). Manufacturing's share has increased to 3.7 percent of GDP, and interest rates of GDP has declined modestly over time, reaching have declined. Malawi reached the HIPC completion around four percent of GDP in 2005. The sector has point in August 2006 and subsequently qualified for shrunk relative to other growing sectors but not in the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). This absolute terms. Since the SACU revenues are likely to resulted in a decline of Malawi's debt-to exports ratio decline further, public finances are highly vulnerable. from 229 percent to 32 percent. Malawi's fitch credit Despite economic growth, Botswana's human rating has also been upgraded from CCC to B­ raising development indicators do not compare favorably prospects for private capital inflows. with similar countries. Thirty-one percent of the Though the macroeconomic situation remains population live in extreme poverty, and Botswana fragile, economic prospects are positive. Growth has been hard hit by the HIV/AIDS epidemic with is projected to remain above historical levels, and an infection rate of 17.1 percent (2004). inflation is expected to fall to single digits. Malawi is especially vulnerable to weather-related shocks 2.5.3 Malawi that cause crises in food production and security. Moreover, delays in projected external financing Since 1999 Malawi's macroeconomic performance and rising expenditure pressures could weaken has been characterized by the rapid increase of do- expenditure control. mestic debt. High interest rates compromised the government's ability to allocate resources for critical 2.5.4 Mozambique poverty alleviating initiatives. Reforms were imple- mented in 2004. Interest payments on domestic debt Prior to independence in 1975, economic activity remain a key priority in pursuit of macroeconomic and land ownership was dominated by colonial stability and will generate fiscal space needed to in- entrepreneurs and farmers. With their departure, crease other government expenditures. Certain key Mozambique experienced a number of structural challenges remain. Growth must be accompanied by constraints: limited capacity in the private sector, 43 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis high levels of unemployment, weak public institu- Africa. The currency is pegged to the South African tions, heavy dependence on foreign aid, and an rand. Steady growth of 4.3 percent, moderate infla- economy on the verge of collapse. The new govern- tion, strong external surpluses, and low indebted- ment introduced strong state control of the economy ness has characterized the economy over recent to sustain agricultural development. Political unrest years. This is largely the result of prudent fiscal led to a debilitating civil war. With peace in 1992, an policies, a stable political environment, developed influx of millions of refugees and displaced persons infrastructure, and strong legal and regulatory back into their home areas created both opportuni- instruments. Recent volatility in growth is chiefly ties for agricultural growth and new challenges. due to spurts in diamond production in 2004 and In 2003, the government's budget deficit increased 2006. The economy is dominated by the public and to four percent of GDP, while total revenue rose private service sectors, accounting for around 60 slightly to 14.3 percent of GDP and current expen- percent of overall output. The share of the mining diture remained unchanged at 16 percent of GDP. sector peaked at 14 percent of GDP in 2002 and Tax receipts increased substantially. Substantial has averaged about nine percent since. The share debt relief and a commitment to strengthening the of secondary sectors, in particular manufacturing, financial system have fostered competitiveness and has remained virtually unchanged and their con- expanded financial services to the poor. Strength- tribution to growth is modest. Constraints in labor ened governance and the judicial system are meant capacity, insufficient technological advancements, to help private sector development, sustain strong limited domestic investments, and dependency on economic growth, and reduce poverty. the South African economy have limited the success Mozambique's overall macroeconomic per- of efforts to diversify the economy. formance has been more resilient to the global Through its membership in the Common Mon- economic crisis than anticipated. There have been etary Area, Namibia is linked to South Africa's infla- large declines in export receipts, private capital tion targeting framework meaning inflation trends inflows, and project aid. But, the government has in Namibia follow the South African rates closely. responded promptly and mitigated the impact by Average annual inflation fell from 11.3 percent to easing macroeconomic policies and containing 2.3 percent between 2002 and 2005, but rose again the spillover effects to the domestic economy. The to five percent in 2006. Fiscal policy is the only mac- emerging rebound of global economic activity and roeconomic policy instrument available to Namibia, the anticipated recovery of international credit mar- and its fiscal situation has recently strengthened kets have given some rise for optimism. significantly. The deficit dropped from 7.5 percent of Measures to mobilize revenue collection play GDP in 2003­04 to an estimated 0.7 percent in 2005­ an important role in consolidating fiscal and macro- 06 due to effective revenue collection, a windfall in economic stability. The government will continue to revenues from the South African Customs Union push for improved efficiency in the tax system. This (SACU), and decline in spending. Exports account includes simplifying the tax system for small- and for almost 40 percent of GDP, with diamonds and medium-sized enterprises, providing a new code for other minerals accounting for close to 60 percent tax benefits, and computerizing the entire chain of of total exports. Namibia's manufactured exports, revenue collection. The government is committed to mainly processed meat products (beef, small stock, implementing an improved system for budget ex- and game) and processed fish and lobster, go to the ecution, control, and evaluation called e-Sistafe. Debt European Union (EU), U.S., and Japanese markets. rescheduling agreements with bilateral creditors Imports consist predominantly of consumption under the HIPC initiative continue to be a priority. items and capital goods, mostly from South Africa. Namibia's trade deficit of about six percent of GDP 2.5.5 namibia since 2002 has been offset by high customs revenue transfers and positive net balances from services Namibia, a lower-middle-income country, has a and income accounts. The positive current account small, open economy intimately linked with South balance has been accompanied by persistent large 44 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context capital outflows, however, as financial institutions ties, including agricultural development, education, invest heavily in South Africa. This has kept reserves health, and infrastructure. at low levels. In 2004­05, public debt stood at 33.8 Both rural and urban poverty have declined in percent of GDP but has since dropped and was an Tanzania. Yet 17 million--almost half of the popula- estimated 19.1 percent in 2009,3 below the govern- tion of 37 million--still live below the poverty line. ment's target of 25 percent and lower than that of Between 1995 and 2005, malnutrition prevalence most other Sub-Saharan African countries. declined from 25 to 17 percent. Decline in rates of Macroeconomic stability is overshadowed by poverty was most rapid in Dar es Salaam and least three issues: high levels of poverty, high unemploy- rapid in rural areas. Enrollment in primary schools ment, and unequal distribution of wealth. The gini- has been higher in urban than in rural areas, and coefficient in Namibia is amongst the highest in the a quarter of adults do not have formal education. world at 0.6. While the number of people living in poverty has declined since independence, it remains 2.5.7 Zambia high at 27 percent.4 Unemployment affects nearly a third of the labor force and is especially prevalent Between 1991 and 1998, real GDP fell by an average among those lacking required professional skills. of 0.2 percent per year in Zambia. With sound man- agement and economic growth, the government has 2.5.6 Tanzania dealt with the challenges of low commodity prices and ineffective policies. Economic growth has been Tanzania launched a series of broad-based, mac- strong since 2000 with a GDP growth rate averaging roeconomic management reforms in 1986, which five percent. This is particularly due to the expansion stimulated economic growth and promoted stability of the mining, construction, and services sectors. that continues to the present. Agriculture plays a Agricultural growth has remained stagnant, how- fundamental role in the economy; however, recent ever, which is due in part to low-value commodity growth derives from increased cropped area. To production in smallholder agriculture. Increased encumber detrimental clearing of primary forest copper production and a 300 percent price rise since for this purpose, future growth in agriculture must 2003, along with additional debt relief through the come from efficiency gains in production, process- HIPC and MDRI initiatives, which together have ing, and marketing. Despite global and regional reduced external debt to 10 percent of GDP in 2007, headwinds, economic growth reached 7.5 percent have improved Zambia's external position signifi- in 2007­08, fuelled by expansion of manufacturing, cantly. The current account balance has thus shifted construction, and services. This has slowed some- from negative 4.4 percent of GDP in 2005 to a posi- what since then but remains positive. With growth tive balance of three percent in 2006. Much-needed in domestic revenues and public spending in line international reserves have since grown and now with the budget, strengthened monetary policies equate to 2.5 months of imports. Non-copper exports have been vital. Interest rates have declined sharply, have also grown rapidly, amounting to $880 million although inflation remains above the Bank of Tan- in 2006. Even though the kwacha depreciated due to zania's target, reflecting pressures from global fuel appreciating exchange rates, its level in real terms has and food prices. Tanzania faces two main challenges recently been 40 percent above the average level for to ensure continued growth and stability. First, the period 2003­04. After years of weak fiscal policy monetary policy will need to strive to return infla- implementation, the authorities have improved man- tion to its target level. Second, the state budget will agement of fiscal resources and reduced domestic need to balance the significant demands on public financing needs drastically. The overall deficit for resources for Tanzania's second-generation growth 2007 declined to 0.2 percent of GDP, driven in part and poverty reduction strategy (MKUKUTA) priori- by low capacity in line ministries to execute capital 3 CIA Fact book: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/wa.html. 4 A household is considered poor if it spends 60 percent or more of its income on food (IBRD 2007). 45 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis projects. The deficit increased to 2.1 percent in 2008 collapse of agricultural exports. Though it was and is expected to remain at that level for 2009 and partly compensated by increases in mining exports 2010.5 Tight monetary policy, a strong currency, and on account of higher world prices, the volume of lower food prices due to a recovery in food produc- recorded mining exports fell in recent years due in tion after a drought during the 2004­05 planting part to smuggling. Imports have been compressed, season, have reduced inflation to single digits for constraining the supply of essential inputs for pro- the first time in over three decades. In October 2009, duction. Since 2008, the government made efforts inflation stood at five percent. In this economic con- to build international reserves, but this was accom- text, loans and advances by commercial banks to the plished by the accumulation of external arrears. private sector have expanded rapidly (10.4 percent of The poverty rate increased from 25 to 63 percent GDP in 2007). Further growth will require addressing between 1990 and 2003. Despite recent decreases, structural constraints and the adverse impact of large the HIV/AIDS prevalence rate one of the highest resource inflows, improved and transparent public in the world at 18 percent. In addition, brain drain sector performance, and improved competitiveness. has constrained the country's capacity to recover Increasing agricultural productivity, with diver- from ongoing economic and social crises. sification of higher-value crops, enhanced commer- cialization among smallholders, and expansion of ag- roprocessing, as well as connectivity and integration 2.6 socioeconoMicoverview of the rural economy, will be important to improve economic opportunities for the rural population. An assessment of the sociological context of the Zambezi River Basin, calls for analysis of key aspects 2.5.8 Zimbabwe of rural and urban life: demographic development, income and poverty, livelihood, gender and youth, With an abundance of fertile land and natural and health and education.6 For each, the analysis is resources, including wildlife and minerals, Zimba- divided according to the upper, middle, and lower bwe was once the breadbasket of southern Africa. parts of the Basin. Since the late 1990s, the country has suffered from The Basin population of around 30 million is political crisis and economic and social regression, unevenly distributed (table 1.2.). More than 85 per- accentuated by sharp decline in developmental as- cent live in three countries (Malawi, Zimbabwe, and sistance and frequent droughts. Between 1999 and Zambia) and across four subbasins: Kafue, Kariba, 2006, GDP declined by 35 percent and unsustainable Tete, and the Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/ external debt reached $4.7 billion. Despite relatively Nyasa. Approximately 75 percent of the Basin strong revenue collection, the IMF estimates that population live in rural areas, while the remaining the adjusted fiscal deficit, including the quasi- 25 percent live in 21 major towns. The rural-urban fiscal activities of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe divide differs among the riparian countries, from 50 (RBZ) to support loss-making parastatal and other percent in Zambia to around 85 percent in Malawi. strategic sectors, reached over 80 percent of GDP in 2006. Large parts of the public sector financing 2.6.1 Theupper,Middle,andlower needs were met through money creation, fuelling Zambeziriverbasin monetary expansion and a sharp rise in inflation. In February 2007 it reached a record high of 1,730 Sociological indicators and statistics are presented percent. The current account deficit has deteriorated for the major three subdivisions of the ZRB: the steadily over the past five years, due largely to the Upper, Middle, and Lower ZRB. 5 http://www.africaneconomicoutlook.org/en/countries/southern-africa/zambia. 6 This description builds on existing sources. This has made cross-national comparisons of poverty measurements difficult, with different definitions of absolute and relative poverty being applied. Therefore the general term poverty refers to the na- tional use of this term. In many cases it has not been possible to obtain data specific to the parts of a country within the Basin, and thus descriptions are limited to national or administrative borders and not watersheds. 46 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Table 2.9. Select human development indicators Indicator Angola Botswana Namibia Malawi Mozambique Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 54% 31% 49% 74% 75% 89% 64% n/a a day (PPP) (% of population) (2000) (1995) (1995) (2005) (2005) (2000) (2005) 33.0 39.0 47.1 50.7 Gini co-efficient n/a n/a n/a n/a (2005) (2004) (2003) (2007) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 116 35 55 80 119 78 105 65 live births) (2008) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) Maternal mortality ratio (modeled 1400 380 210 1100 520 950 830 880 estimate, per 100,000 live births) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) Improved water source (% of 51% 95% 81% 76% 41% 53% 54% 80% population with access) (2008) (2000) (2000) (2005) (2000) (2000) (2000) (2000) Prevalence of HIV, total (% of 2.1% 24.9% 15.3% 12.3% 12.2% 6.4% 15% 19% population ages 15­49) (2008) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) Total enrollment, primary 53% 84% 85% 93% 77% 93% 93% 84% education (%) (2000) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2000) Life expectancy at birth, total 47 49 52 47 43 56 46 45 (years) (2008) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2005) (2008) (2008) (2008) Source: World Development Indicators Database. The Upper ZRB covers eastern parts of Angola,7 The Lower ZRB covers all of Malawi, a small small parts of northeastern Namibia (Caprivi), strip of southern Tanzania along the eastern coast of northern Botswana (Chobe District), and western the Malawi River, northeastern and central parts of and northwestern parts of Zambia. Apart from Mozambique, and parts of northeastern Zimbabwe. It highlands in Angola and some relatively produc- corresponds to the subbasins of Shire River and Lake tive parts of northeastern Zambia, the Upper Basin Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, Tete, and Zambezi Delta. is dominated by the sands of the Kalahari and the floodplains and dambos along the river and in the 2.6.2 demographicdevelopment Barotse Floodplains. This Upper Basin corresponds to the following subbasins considered in the study: The Upper ZRB is sparsely populated with the ex- Kabompo, Upper Zambezi, Lungúe Bungo, Luang- ception of the Angolan highlands. Population den- inga, Barotse, and Cuando/Chobe. sity is generally higher along the river and near the The Middle ZRB covers a majority of Zambia, floodplains and dambos due to the relatively high considerable parts of Zimbabwe, and borders with potential for diverse use of natural resources. The eastern Botswana and Namibia. The Copperbelt, population density for the Barotse Floodplains, for Central, Southern, and Lusaka Provinces in Zambia example, is 34 persons per km2 (Turpie and others fall entirely within the Middle Basin, as do smaller 1999). In Zambia, the people living in the Western parts of the Northwestern and Eastern provinces. In and Northwestern provinces constitute eight and Zimbabwe, north Matabeleland, the Midlands, and six percent of the total population respectively. west Mashonaland fall within this part of the Basin. The rural populations, which depend primarily on The Middle Basin corresponds to the subbasins of subsistence farming, make up 86 and 85 percent of Kariba, Kafue, Luangwa, and Mupata. the provinces' population respectively; these totals 7 Mainly Moxico, Huila, Huambo, and Cuanza Sul Provinces. 47 Table 2.10. Macroeconomic overview Indicator Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Population 16.4 (2006) 1.8 (2006) 13.2 (2006) 20.1 2.1 (2006) 39.5 11.9 13.6 (in millions) Population growth 2.8% 1.3% 2.2% 2.0% 1.3% 2.6% 1.8% 0.6% (%/year) labor force growth 2.9% ­0.3% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 2.4% 1.7% 1.5% (%/year) Prevalence of HIV, 3.7% 24.1% 14.1% 16.1% 19.6% 6.5% 17.0% 20.1% total (% of popula- tion ages 15­49) Macroeconomic · Strong economic · Economy is · Relatively small · Export commodi- · Middle income · Strong growth over · Negative impact · Economic growth trends performance dominated by the economy ties: aluminum, country a number of years on economy by was strong during · Increase of oil produc- diamond industry · Agriculture is the cashews, prawns, · Among top · Inflation under macroeconomic the decade after tion of around 13% · GDP growth over mainstay, but vul- cotton, sugar, 10 countries control instability, resolved independence, but · Increase of agricultural the past years nerable to weather citrus, timber, bulk worldwide in share · Economic perfor- with debt cancel- in the late 1990 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 48 value of 8% established around shocks electricity, natural of GDP spent on mances continue to lation. the growth began · Inflation fell from 19% 5%; this trend · Unequal land gas. education be strong, despite · Income between to slow to 12% in 2006 is expected to distribution Over · The generally good the drought of 2006 1974 and 1990 fell · In 2002, Zimba- · Medium term outlook continue in the 40% of smallhold- growth and macro- · Poverty still high by 5% bwe's economy is positive; GDP is medium­term ers households economic picture is 45% under poverty · In 2002 Zambia was severely expected to grow · Major challenge cultivate less than overshadowed by line was hit by a copper constrained about 25% on average is diversification 0.5 hectares the lingering levels · Agriculture very crisis and a severe · Overvalued in the next two years of the economy · Export is dominated of poverty; high un- important drought exchange rate and about 8% average and identification by tobacco, tea, employment; and · Mining constrained · Unsustainable ex- in 2009­10 driven by of other engines cotton, coffee and unequal distribu- by power supply ternal debt burden the oil sector of growth as the sugar tion of wealth and · Inflation in 2006 · Fiscal deficit is pro- diamond market · Improvement of income more than 1,000% jected to be sustain- begins to taper off macroeconomic · Adjusted fiscal posi- (continued) able in the medium performances tion extremely poor and longer term (­25% of GDP) Continued on next page Table 2.10. Macroeconomic overview (continued) Indicator Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe GDP 2006 · $45.2 billion · $10.6 billion · $2.2 billion · $7.6 billion · $6.4 billion · $12.8 billion · $10.9 billion · $5.0 billion · 18.6% annual growth · 53.1 % industry · 10.9% annual · 8.5% annual · 4.6% annual · 6.7% annual · 6.0% annual · ­4.8% annual · 69.7% industry (38% accounts to growth rate growth rate growth growth rate growth rate growth · 21.4% service diamond mining · 44.7% services · 49.3% services · 57.7% services · 37.3% services · 59.2% services · 50.7% services · 8.9% agriculture industry) · 19.8% industry · 29.0% industry · 31.0% industry · 17.4 % industry · 24.8% industry · 27.4% industry 49 · Projection 2007 31% · 44.9% services · 35.5% · 21.7% · 11.3% · 45.3% · 16.1% · 21.9 % · 2% agriculture agriculture agriculture agriculture agriculture agriculture agriculture Growth GDP 2008­10: 7.5% GDP: GDP 2006­10: 5.8% GDP: GDP: GDP GDP: GDP: Indicators 2008: 6.0% 2008: 7.0% 2008: 4.6% 2008: 7.1% 2008: 6.3% 2008: ­6.6% GDP per capita: 13.9% GDP per capita: 2.7% 2009: 3.8% 2009: 7.0% 2009: 3.7% 2009: 7.9% 2009: 6.3% 2009: ­6.8% 2010: 5.5% 2010: 8.0% 2010: 5.9% 2010: n/a GDP per capita: 5.5% GDP per capita: 3.2% GDP per capita: 3.6% Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis are well over the national average of 65 percent. In ince and 72 percent in the Northwestern Province Namibia, the Caprivi region's population of around earned less than 300,000 kwachas (below the level 80,000 make up 4.4 percent of the total (Afridev of covering basic needs) (Zambia Central Statistical Associates 2004). Office 2006). In Namibia's Caprivi region, poverty In the Middle ZRB, the rural-urban distribu- levels are significantly higher than the national aver- tion varies greatly across provinces. In Zambia, 92 age of 27 percent, and average household income is percent of the Eastern province live in rural areas; the third-lowest in the country (Afridev Associates meanwhile, the rural population constitute 78 per- 2004). Poverty is particularly high among female- cent of the Southern and Central provinces, and only headed households and among Silozi speakers. 21 percent of the Copperbelt Province (due to copper Poverty rates have fallen rapidly in Botswana since mining). Zambia's rural population (7.6 million, the early 1990s. Socioeconomic data from Angola is or 59 percent of the total) live primarily in small- inadequate, but an estimated 70 percent of the popu- scale farming households. Roughly 2.5 percent lation live below the poverty line (World Bank 2005). live in medium-scale farm households, 0.1 percent In the Middle ZRB, poverty is significantly high- in large-scale farm households, and three percent er in rural areas, and there is considerable variation in nonagricultural rural families (Zambia Central among the poor. In Zambia, 80 percent of the rural Statistical Office 2006). The biggest share live in the population have consistently lived in poverty over upper Kafue subbasin. The middle Kafue subbasin the past 10 years, while the urban proportion has (mostly in Central Province) has a comparatively decreased to 34 percent (Zambia Central Statistical low population density, with only high concentra- Office 2006). Forty-two percent of the Copperbelt tions in the Lukanga Swamps and upper Luangwa Province's population is registered as poor, while River (Scott Wilson Piésold 2003a). In Zimbabwe, in the Central, Southern, and Eastern provinces, 72 the rural population constitute 64 percent of the percent, 73 percent, and 79 percent live in poverty, total 13 million (2005). respectively. Food security assessments from 2001 The Lower ZRB has experienced rapid popula- indicate that food insecurity is higher in most of the tion growth. Malawi's population of 12.2 million has rural districts of the Middle ZRB compared with grown by two percent per year. Eighty-eight percent the national Zambian average (Scott Wilson Piésold are rural dwellers, population density is very high 2003a). In 2006 the income of 50 percent of Zambia's (on average 105 persons per km2), and population population was below the level of covering basic pressure is especially prominent in the southern re- needs. This figure was 31 percent, 44 percent, 51 gion. Most Malawians are very young--46.2 percent percent, and 66 percent for the Copperbelt, Cen- are under the age of 15, which makes sustaining tral, Southern and Eastern provinces, respectively. livelihoods difficult (Malawi National Statistical This illustrates the relatively high level of average Office 2005). In Mozambique, the area within the income in the regions along the line of railways and Basin is estimated at 225,000 km2 and is home to 3.8 roads. In Zimbabwe poverty levels have increased million people (Beilfuss and Santos 2001). The area dramatically over the past decades. In 2003 poor is sparsely populated, especially in the northeast households made up 63 percent of the population, part within the Tete Province, and with somewhat compared with 42 percent in 1995. Poverty has higher density along and around the Delta lying increased primarily in urban areas. Matabeleland within the Zambezia and Sofala provinces. Similar North in the Basin has the highest poverty rate in to Malawi, the Zimbabwe part of the Lower Basin the country, at 70 percent (World Bank 2007b:7). has higher population density and higher pressure The Lower ZRB is also characterized by high on its resources. rural poverty. In Malawi the poverty line in 2004 was MK 16,165 per capita per year, which cov- 2.6.3 incomeandpoverty ers the cost of satisfying basic food and nonfood requirements (table 2.11.). Satisfying only basic In the Upper ZRB, poverty is widespread. In 2006, food requirements was estimated to be MK 10,029. 77 percent of those living in Zambia's Western Prov- Fifty-two percent of Malawians fell below this sec- 50 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Table 2.11. Mean annual household expenditure by region in Malawi (2005) Expenditure on Mean per capita Expenditure housing, utilities, Expenditure on expenditure on food and furnishing other items MK % % % Northern Region 22,340.30 61.4 19.8 18.8 Central Region 29,739.30 53.8 24.5 21.7 Southern Region 23,696.10 56.4 25.4 18.2 Malawi 26,058.60 55.6 24.4 20.0 Source: Malawi, National Statistical Office 2005. ond level of income. As many as 64.4 percent of the rural population in the southern region were poor Table 2.12. Poverty in select provinces and in (comprising 50 percent of the national total), com- rural/urban areas of Mozambique (1996­97 and pared with roughly 30 percent in the urban areas. 2002­03) Gender disparities were also apparent; 59 percent Poverty headcount estimate of female-headed households were poor, compared Location 1996­97 2002­03 with 51 percent of male-headed households. Across Zambezia 68.1 44.6 urban households, the difference was greater: 32 Tete 82.3 59.8 percent of female-headed compared with 24 percent of male-headed households. Food requirements Sofala 87.9 36.1 made up more than half of household expenditure Urban 62.0 51.5 in all regions of Malawi. For the poorest quintile of Rural 71.3 55.3 the households, food requirements made up 61.1 Total country 69.4 54.1 percent of expenditure, while this figure was only Source: Republic of Mozambique 2006a:12. 48 percent for the richest quintile. Because staple crop requirements can only be covered for around four months of the year, food in- (World Bank 2006b: 41; 65­66). In Harare and Masho- security in Malawi is pervasive. Recurrent droughts, naland Central, in the Lower ZRB in Zimbabwe, the increasing fertilizer prices, and degradation of poverty rates of approximately 50 percent are among agricultural land are among the root causes (Gibbs the lowest in the nation. 2003). Mozambique experienced a national decline in poverty from 69 to 54.1 percent between 1996 and 2.6.4 livelihood 2003 (table 2.12.). Rural poverty rates also decreased from 71 to 55 percent. Populous provinces, such as Throughout the Basin, small-scale subsistence agri- Zambezia and Sofala, have also experienced sig- culture dominates employment. Livestock rearing nificant reductions. The incidence of poverty is sig- and fisheries, especially in the floodplains and nificantly higher among female-headed households dambos, are also prominent. The economic value (63 percent) than among male-headed households of the various natural resources and environmen- (52 percent) (Republic of Mozambique 2006b:23). tal services provided by land and rivers, either for Crop production is still by far the most important consumption or sale, are rarely calculated. Available source of income, especially for poorer households. data indicate that their real (subsistence) economic At the same time, the importance of wage labor, live- value provides a considerable part of the overall stock production, and non-farm enterprise income is rural household economy. The importance of forest, increasing, especially among richer rural households woodland, and wetland products for household nu- 51 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis trition and additional income should not be ignored. fishing activities, a vital contributor to household Those products are easily accessed by women and food consumption. Most of the population in the children, and improve their individual and house- Barotse Floodplain depend on a mixed livelihood hold nutritional status and relative poverty rates. strategy, combining crop farming, livestock, fishing, Across the Basin, livestock represent social status and natural resource exploitation. This approach and insurance for most households. Furthermore, relies on the wetlands to provide protection from ex- animals used for draught power are vital for tillage ternal shocks. Income and subsistence sources vary and small-scale farming practices. throughout the year because of seasonal changes. In the high altitudes of the Upper ZRB, where At the household level, the wetlands generate an rainfall is high and soil fertility poor, traditional, annual net financial return of $405 on average. Of shifting, slash-and-burn subsistence agriculture is this, 83 percent is for home consumption. By far the now giving way to a more settled state as popula- most valuable assets are fish (43 percent of total and tion pressure increases. In the Angolan highlands 73 percent of household cash income), floodplain and parts of the Northwestern Province of Zambia,8 grazing (29 percent of total), and crop production the areas of land not covered by Kalahari sands (22 percent of total) (Emerton 2003). Reeds, papyrus, are among the most productive areas in the Basin. and grasses contribute significantly to household Farm sizes are larger than average, often exceed- income, although not as much as fish. Subsistence ing 10 hectares. Rivers and streams also tend to be farming of maize, sorghum, millet, groundnuts, perennial, and irrigation is quite feasible. On the beans, and sweet potatoes constitute 60 percent floodplains and dambos, agriculture is settled and of household incomes in areas such as the Caprivi very intensively practiced along the narrow, fertile region. Here, as in other areas with wetlands, most margins between floodplains and wooded inter- households sow crops in elevated ground during fluves of Kalahari sands. Farm sizes range from two the rainy season and along riverbanks and in de- to four hectares. Apart from staple food crops, many pressions during the dry season. This flexibility is other food products--such as vegetables, bananas, crucial for food security. and mangoes--are grown for household consump- With the exception of the Eastern Province, tion and local sale. Cash cropping has generally the Zambian part of the Middle ZRB has been been limited to tobacco, cotton, and sugar produc- dominated by the railways and proximity to urban tion. Throughout the Zambian part of the Basin areas in both Lusaka and the Copperbelt Province. --particularly in and around the floodplains--cattle Strong rural-urban links to urban centers provide rearing is an important cash-generating activity. In employment opportunities and markets for agri- Zambia's Western Province, livestock is owned by cultural products. Urban migratory patterns fol- roughly a quarter of households, which is just under low the growth and decline of mining and related the national average. Cattle are particularly popu- industries. This part of the Basin also contains some lar in the Western Province. Livestock ownership of the largest and potentially most productive com- is generally lowest in the Northwestern Province. mercial farmlands in Zambia. In the northern part, Cattle migrations from winter-grazing grounds on the traditional, shifting slash-and-burn agricultural the floodplain to summer grounds on the higher sur- system is still practiced, though it is gradually be- rounding sandplains occur annually. South and east ing replaced by more sedentary systems. This area of the floodplains are challenging areas for cattle, includes the Kafue River catchment, which is why squeezed between the rising water of the floodplains large areas have been classified as forest reserves. and tsetse-infested woodlands of the Kalahari sands. Nearer to the urban centers of the Copperbelt, Fishing is another important livelihood in the traditional production systems have largely given Western Province, especially in the Barotse Flood- way to highly productive commercial farms and plain. Over half of the population is involved in farming enterprises. Many areas, including forest 8 Solwezi, Kabompo, Mufumbwe, Kasempa, and Kaoma Districts. 52 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context reserves, are under increased agricultural pressure and burn (as in the Upper Kafue and Northwestern from cultivation, charcoal production, and return- provinces). Production of traditional crops such as ing migrants from urban or mining areas. The beans and sweet potatoes has increased, and mar- Central Province is characterized by large, relatively kets for such crops are also developing. productive agricultural areas, some of which are The Kafue National Park and adjacent game dominated by small-scale production. Others are management areas cover the entire western part of designated for large-scale commercial farms. Small- Central Province and thus indirectly pressure the scale producers combine subsistence production of nonreserved parts of the province. On the other maize and traditional food crops with production hand, the park and game management areas pro- of cash crops such as maize, cotton, and, recently, vide opportunities for tourism, which has not yet baby corn and paprika. reached its full potential. In particular, involvement Considerable numbers of Zimbabwean small- of the local communities in wildlife management scale farmers in the Federal era, along with Tonga has not yet been sufficiently developed. In spite of herder-farmers (who could no longer sustain their the establishment of community resource boards, livelihood in the dry Southern Province of Zambia local communities have experienced minimal primarily due to droughts and animal diseases), gains from their involvement (Pavy 2006). Before have migrated to the area since the 1970s. As popula- construction of the ITT in the 1970s, the Kafue Flats tion density slowly increases in this region, so does were mostly inhabited by small fishing communi- pressure on land and different forms of production ties living along the river and Ila people, who let and livelihoods become more difficult to reconcile their herds graze the naturally flooded grasslands (Denconsult 1998d, appendix II.1). Small-scale during the recession seasons. Since then, large parts agricultural production in Zambia has changed of the Kafue Flats have been developed into com- radically since colonial times. During the mining mercial farm areas with potential for large-scale and industrial development era, small-scale produc- irrigated production. The area is not yet used to its ers were encouraged to produce maize for sale to full potential, but the herding communities have supply the urbanized workforce with staple food. experienced increased difficulty in accessing previ- Subsidized input packages, extension services, and ously occupied grasslands. Fishing was traditionally equipment were provided by government parastat- practiced in the Kafue Flats by the Twa people and als, and prices were regulated centrally. Many ele- the flats provided both fishing and cattle herding ments of traditional production systems changed communities with protein (cattle owners rarely during this time, and both urban and rural popula- consume their livestock). Fishing potential has in- tions adopted maize as their main staple crop. Land creased with construction of the reservoir. and soil were intensively exploited, especially in Increased pressure on fishing elsewhere has areas closer to urban centers and along railways. led to an influx of fishermen into the Kafue Flats. Other than the use of chemical fertilizers, little was The introduction of unsustainable fishing methods done to maintain soil fertility. Now that subsidies has put pressure on the fish stock.9 The Southern have disappeared, prices are no longer guaranteed Province has relatively low rainfall, fragile soils, and on inputs or crops, soils have been largely depleted, high population density. Erosion is therefore a seri- and most small-scale farmers are forced to revert ous problem in parts of the province. The traditional to low-input production systems. Many are more farming systems in the same area (including those inclined to adopt conservation farming techniques of the Tonga) are characterized by a combination of and other contemporary versions of sustainable farming and livestock herding. Increased popula- farming systems (especially in the mid-Kafue and tion pressures have rendered this difficult to sustain, Central provinces), or to revert completely to the causing migration of herding families toward the traditional shifting cultivation systems of slash Central Province. Livestock is still important in the 9 Rennie (1978), quoted in Scott Wilson Piésold 2003a, Chapter 2. 53 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Southern Province, where 39 percent of households ported to have declined by half between 1995 and own livestock, compared with 27.2 percent in the 2003. Up to a third of the population has depended Central Region (the average of Zambia as a whole) on food aid in recent years (World Bank 2007b). and only 11.6 percent in the Copperbelt Region. Furthermore, many households are increasingly Some commercial farms and estates in the region dependent on remittances. grow tobacco, sugar, wheat, and coffee, but many of A Poverty Assessment Study Survey from these farms are relatively unproductive. The Eastern 2006 shows that 35 percent of household income Province adjacent to the Malawian border is also came from remittances.10 Livestock is crucial for highly productive, with considerable small-scale crop agriculture, as 95 percent of agriculture in farming; widespread use of animal-driven power; communal areas depends on draught power for maize production for home consumption; and cot- tillage. Livestock populations, including livestock ton, groundnuts and tobacco production for cash for export, have recently been adversely affected by crops (Denconsult 1998d, appendix II.1). drought and outbreaks of communicable diseases The importance of maize for agricultural like foot-and-mouth disease and by the decline in households might be an indicator of the relative commercial livestock farming since the implemen- dependence of many agricultural households on tation of significant land reforms (FAO Investment their own production to maintain household food Centre Division 2004). security. In Zambia, 91 percent of agricultural In the Lower ZRB, a very large proportion of households grow maize. For the regions of the the population is involved in agriculture, especially Middle ZRB (except for Lusaka), that percentage in Malawi. According to the National Statistics is near 100, since many families produce both local Office of Malawi, 75.4 percent of all employed Ma- varieties and hybrid maize (Zambia Central Statisti- lawians over 15 years old were farmers belonging cal Office 2006). The Eastern Province also has the to the Mlimi group (2004). In the northern region, largest concentration of pigs, with 43 percent of 86 percent were Mlimi; in the central region, 83.6; the national total (Zambia Central Statistical Office and in the southern, 67.3 percent (Malawi National 2006). In Zimbabwe the plateau in the southern part Statistical Office 2005). The Malawi Demographic of the Middle ZRB is productive, hosting a large and Health Survey (2004), which uses a slightly dif- group of commercial farmers, while the northern ferent definition of farmer, registered similarly high and western parts of the Basin are dominated by levels of engagement in agriculture. Figures show communal lands with high population densities a very high participation of women in agricultural and large numbers of cattle (Denconsult 1998d). activities; men only dominate in the northern re- Farm types range from small-scale commercial gion. Agricultural production in Malawi is mainly resettlement farms to communal farms (Dencon- carried out by small-scale farmers who combine sult 1998d, appendix II.1). Large areas are still as- subsistence agriculture with cash crop production. sumed to host small-scale farmers. Over 1.2 million Because of Malawi's high population pressure, smallholder farming families in Zimbabwe--70 farms are very small; this is especially true in the percent of the population--hold an average of three southern region, where they can be as small as 0.2 hectares each, although the land is comparatively hectares (Denconsult 1998d, Appendix II.1). In the marginal for agriculture in low rainfall areas and northern and central regions, average farm sizes are with limited access to productive resources and between one and two hectares. According to CODA infrastructure (FAO Investment Centre Division (2006), 25 percent of small-scale farmers cultivate 2004). These farmers practice rain-fed agriculture less than 0.5 hectares, 30 percent cultivate between using low-input, low-output technologies. Agricul- half to one hectare, 31 percent cultivate between tural production in Zimbabwe has been constrained one to two hectares, and 14 percent cultivate more over the past decade, and maize production is re- than two hectares. 10 Poverty Assessment Study Survey II (PASS II), draft report, December 2006, here cited from World Bank 2007e, p. 7. 54 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context Small-scale farmers have customary user rights Statistical Office 2005). Integration of livestock pro- to their land. Until recently, however, these rights duction and crop production (such as use of crop were not formally registered. The insecurity of land- residues for feed and use of manure for fertilization holding has had a negative impact on incentives to of fields) seems to be poorly developed, especially maintain soil fertility and improve land productiv- in the southern part of the country. In addition, in ity with irrigation structures. A new national land most of the country, animal traction and other forms policy approved in 2002 initiated registration and of mechanization of crop production are applied to formalization of user rights and opened up for pri- a very limited extent by small-scale farmers. Com- vate leasehold estates (CODA 2006). Maize is the mercial private farms and corporate estates are few dominant staple food throughout Malawi, where and small in size, and they tend to be crop specific, more than 93 percent of agricultural households growing tobacco, rubber, tea, coffee, or other cash produce it (Malawi National Statistical Office 2005). crops. These farms, which occupy approximately In high rainfall areas, cassava can be the staple crop. 13 percent of agricultural land in Malawi, provide In the dry south along the Shire Valley, sorghum employment for a number of rural people, but large- partly replaces maize, and rice is important on scale farming plays a lesser role in Malawi than in the western lake shore plain in Tanzania. Among Zambia (CODA 2006: 7). cash crops, tobacco (particularly burley tobacco) Fishing sustains the livelihood of small fishing is economically the most important for small-scale communities along Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, farmers, followed by cotton and groundnuts (Den- along the Shire River, and in the floodplains and consult 1998d, Appendix II.1). Most agricultural swamps of the wetlands in the south of the country. production in Malawi is rain-fed, but dry season Fishing in the floodplains and swamps is mainly cultivation in the wet depressions (Dimba) is also done from dugout canoes using traditional tech- very common. As many as 36 percent of farming niques. Even though considerable areas have been households cultivate Dimba crops. This average classified as National Parks and Wildlife Reserves, covers a huge variation between districts within wildlife numbers are very low, and thus play a each of the three regions. Some of the highest lev- relatively small role in rural livelihoods in Malawi. els of Dimba cultivation are found in Nsanje in the Furthermore, the management arrangements in and southern region (59.6 percent), Mchinji in the central around the National Parks and Wildlife Reserves region (54.6 percent), and Mzimba in the northern have not involved the local communities to any region (53.8 percent). On average, only 27 percent significant extent. The incentive for local commu- of Dimba fields are irrigated, and most irrigation is nities to contribute to sustainable wildlife manage- restricted to traditional irrigation methods (such as ment is very slim (CODA 2006: 60ff). As with other watering cans and stream diversion). rural communities in the ZRB, collection of natural For many farming families, livestock consti- resources on communal (forest and woodland) ar- tute a safety net during droughts and lean periods eas constitute an important part of the subsistence (CODA 2006). But livestock numbers have declined economy for many households. over the past decades due to droughts, diseases, and The most important natural resource collected other shocks. At present, most families only own in Malawi is firewood. Because of population pres- small livestock, the most common species being sure, deforestation constitutes one of the main en- chicken (owned by 88.7 percent of all agricultural vironmental threats in Malawi. Of Mozambique's households), followed by goats (34.9 percent) and 20.5 million population (2007), the number who pigs (10.5 percent). Only eight percent of agricul- are economically active averaged nine million in tural households own cattle. The highest proportion 2003. As many as 79.6 percent of adults are en- of agricultural households owning cattle is found in gaged in agriculture, compared with 12.7 percent the northern region (18.9 percent) while goats are in commerce and services. Women are particularly particularly common in the central and southern prevalent in the agricultural sector, making up regions, where they compose 39.9 and 35.2 percent almost two-thirds of the farming workforce. On of total livestock, respectively (Malawi National the other hand, men dominate all other sectors 55 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis even though women occupy more than one-third In the dry season, cattle graze on grassy plains. of all jobs in commerce and services. Many new Poor surface drainage prevents tree growth as well jobs have been created in urban areas, especially as cropping. The Zambezi Delta is reported to have in the service sector, and men predominantly have supported more than 50,000 cattle in the 1970s, the entered these new jobs. majority of which were associated with the Sena The area north of Lake Cahora Bassa has very Sugar Estates at Marromeu, but cattle was also herd- low agricultural productivity and low population ed in districts such as Chinde, Mopeia, and Caia. density. The farming system here is dominated by Livestock were decimated during the prolonged rain-fed subsistence agriculture and cash crop pro- civil war, and the area is now reported to hold less duction by small-scale farmers. In the easternmost than 5,000 heads, although restocking programs part of Tete (bordering Malawi), rain-fed cash crop have been introduced (Beilfuss and Brown 2006). production is increasingly important and where These are two large sugar estates near the river, international companies have begun to establish where pockets of soil with natural surface draining outgrower schemes with paprika and other ex- channels can be found, and these are important for port crops. The subbasin falling within Sofala and agricultural output and employment. Other ir- Zambezia is dominated by wetlands and includes rigated commercial crops such as vegetables, fruit the Ramsar site of the Marromeu Complex on the trees, rice, tobacco, and cotton are grown on smaller southern bank of the Zambezi River. commercial farms. The agricultural sector in Mo- Traditional livelihood systems were adapted to zambique has experienced positive developments in the seasonal flooding of large areas. A combination recent years, which in turn has contributed consider- of rain-fed and recession agriculture has been prac- ably to the overall decrease in rural poverty. There ticed by the people living along the river and in the has been a diversification of both food crop and cash wetlands, where poor yields in one area are often crop production, more small-scale farmers have counterbalanced by higher yields in other areas in been involved in contract farming, and large-scale the same season (Beilfuss and Brown 2006). Farm- farms have created jobs for rural households. Much ing households cultivate an average of 1.5 hectares of the increased production stems from extension of rain-fed area for food crops--including maize, rather than intensification of production. The need sorghum, millet, cassava, groundnuts, beans, cow- to improve productivity per hectare through better pea, and sweet potatoes--mainly for consumption land management and mechanization is widely rec- and to a lesser extent, cash crops such as cotton, ognized. The largest increases in production were tobacco, sugarcane, and sunflower. Mechanization found in the central regions of the country, including with animal traction or similar is almost nonexistent. in the Lower ZRB, with a particularly high increase The fields of naturally flooded rice farms have an in the Tete Province (World Bank 2006b). average size of 0.8 hectares. Irrigation techniques Socioeconomic infrastructure development in are traditional and use low-level technology (Beil- the provinces of Zambezia, Tete, and Sofala was fuss and Brown 2006). Furthermore, many families very positive between 1996­97 and 2002­03. Roads, have combined the cultivation of crops with some markets, public transport, communication, modern livestock rearing, freshwater or estuarine fishery, lighting, potable water, and sanitation improved sig- and the collection of natural resources such as fuel nificantly (Republic of Mozambique 2006b:16). The wood, palms, papyrus, reeds, grass, wild fruits, northern parts of Zimbabwe fall within the Lower honey, and medicinal plants. At $96 per household ZRB and have relatively high temperatures and low per year, fish and crustaceans constitute by far the or erratic rainfall. The area has primarily been laid biggest contributor to household income in the out for communal farming, with a high density of Delta, as in the other three major wetland areas of both population and cattle. Maize is the main staple the Basin. According to this study, palm (with a crop, in some areas supplanted by sorghum and contribution of $11 per year) is the second-largest millet, and cotton is the main cash crop (Denconsult natural resource contributor to household economy 1998d, appendix II.1). On the plateau farther south, in the delta (Turpie and others 1999:161, table 4.6.26) commercially irrigated farms with small or large 56 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context dams dominate, while the Eastern Highlands are 85ff). In addition to farm labor obligations, women well suited for commercial fruit, vegetable, coffee, are responsible for fetching fuel wood and water; and tea production. processing food and cooking; caring for children, the elderly, and the sick; and general housekeeping. 2.6.5 genderandyouth In addition, many women are involved in trade, beer brewing, or other income-generating activities Across the Basin, women dominate the agricultural despite a very low profit margin (CODA 2006: 88ff). workforce. Often, they are responsible for the col- According to tradition, in most Malawian ru- lection and processing of natural resources and ral communities, men control the family land and in most cases, their roles are linked to subsistence make the ultimate decisions on crops to be grown. production to ensure household food security. Women's decision-making influence is greater for, Women's participation in cash production is less yet limited to, the smaller vegetable gardens allotted pronounced, and their control over cash income to them. Furthermore, men are responsible for mar- from agriculture is limited. The large number of keting cash crops; women only food crops. Thus, 68 female-headed households is in part explained percent of income derived from agriculture is con- by the migration of men. In contrast, the mining trolled by men (CODA 2006: 85). Therefore, despite districts along the Upper Kafue have more males the dominance of women in farm labor, they rarely than females, reflecting job opportunities in these consult extension services; leaving this exchange districts (Scott Wilson Piésold 2003a). The decline to their male household members (this is even the of the mining industry has nevertheless resulted case in female-headed households, where no male in increased participation of women and children household members are present to participate in in the informal service sectors in the urban areas extension activities). Similarly, access to credit of the Copperbelt and increased out-migration and farm inputs is much lower for female-headed from urban areas toward rural areas. In rural ar- households and for women in general. Twenty-three eas, women are used as paid farm labor, and they percent of all households in Malawi are registered also carry out work on the household subsistence as female headed (Malawi National Statistical Office farm. Poverty is significantly higher among female- 2005). An even larger proportion of households are headed households, which reflects their marginal de facto female headed because of male migration or position in both rural and urban areas (Zambia divorce. Similar to Malawi, more women than men Central Statistical Office 2006). in Mozambique live in rural areas, and women make The number of jobs in the formal sectors along up the majority of the agricultural labor force. With railway areas and in the mining industry has fallen. more men taking up employment in other sectors, Young people--especially young men--therefore this cycle is being reinforced; women stay in the struggle to find jobs with sufficient income to sus- lower levels of agricultural production and do not tain a family. This in turn puts increased pressure benefit from diversification of agricultural produc- on households to create jobs and income through tion and increase in cash crop production. Women agricultural activities. In Malawi, women par- still have the primary responsibility to do household ticipate more than men in almost all farming and chores and produce food, but they have very limited livestock rearing activities--from land preparation access to technology, fertilizer, and credit. Women to harvesting--in the small-scale farming systems. are therefore highly restricted in their ability to en- With very little control over and access to resources, gage in agricultural diversification or other income- and with little decision-making power, women get generating activities (Republic of Mozambique little exposure to agricultural advice and techno- 2006b). logical improvements. This is probably partly due to the relatively low level of mechanization and 2.6.6 healthandeducation the considerable migration of men in search of off-farm employment. In Malawi, women account Life expectancy at birth is low throughout the ZRB: for 70 percent of the total farm labor (CODA 2006: 56 years in Botswana and Tanzania, 47 in Namibia 57 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis and Mozambique, 42 in Zambia and Angola, 40 in increasing in rural districts.11 Child health indicators Malawi, and 33 years in Zimbabwe. Health chal- for the Copperbelt, Central, and Southern provinces lenges, such as the prevalence of malaria, respira- are relatively close to the Zambian averages of 54.2 tory infections, eye infections, skin infections, and percent for stunting, 5.9 percent for underweight, diarrhea demonstrates the deleterious effects of and 19.7 percent for wasting. Only the central region living close to still water; poor access to clean drink- exceeds the average rates of stunting and under- ing water and sanitation facilities; and proximity to weight, while the southern region is slightly over urban, industrial pollution, all of which characterize the average for underweight and wasting. large parts of the Basin. In Zimbabwe life expectancy has fallen sharply Malaria and other diseases related to proxim- since the early 1990s. The prevalence of HIV/AIDS ity to still water are highly prevalent in the Upper reached a peak of 25 percent in the early 2000s and Zambezi River Basin. Malnutrition among children declined to 18.1 percent in 2005­06, but remains under the age of five seems to be relatively low in among the highest in the world (World Bank 2007b). the Western Province of Zambia compared with the The proportion of underweight children under five rest of Zambia, with levels of stunting (39.6 percent, was 13 percent in 1999, with significantly higher low height for age, a sign of chronic malnutrition), levels in north Matabeleland (18.9 percent) and in underweight (4.5 percent), and wasting (17.0 per- west Mashonaland (16.7 percent) (United Nations cent, lower than average weight for height, a sign of Development Program [UNDP] 2003). acute malnutrition) all under the national average. In the Lower Zambezi River Basin, malaria, di- The Northwestern Province shows a significantly arrhea, and to a lesser extent cholera are prevalent. higher than average level of wasting (23.1 percent) Malnutrition is pervasive in all regions and income and more than twice the level of underweight chil- groups in Malawi. This can partly be explained by dren (13.2 percent), while stunting (49.1 percent) is the high reliance on maize--maize comprises 93 below the national average (Zambia Central Sta- percent of cereal consumption (Zambia Central Sta- tistical Office 2006). Levels of malnutrition among tistical Office 2006). The levels of under-five children children under the age of five in the Caprivi Region suffering from stunting, underweight, and wasting in Namibia are similar to the national levels, with are high (table 2.13.). 25 percent showing signs of moderate long-term In Malawi HIV/AIDS prevalence was 14.4 malnutrition. The region is subject to alarmingly percent in 2003, which is lower than the average for high rates of HIV/AIDS infections, with a preva- southern Africa. Furthermore, the rate appears to lence rate of 33 percent in 2000, higher than in any be steady, indicating a curved spread. Urban areas other part of Namibia (Afridev Associates 2004). were hardest hit, at 23 percent compared with 12.4 The prevalence rate is 17 percent in Botswana (IMF 2007b), and four percent in Angola (World Bank 2006a), and 16 percent in Zambia. In the Middle Zambezi River Basin, the general Table 2.13. Prevalence in Malawi of stunting, health status has deteriorated considerably in Zam- underweight, and wasting among children aged bia due to economic recession and the HIV/AIDS six to 59 months (2005) pandemic. Prevalence rates among those aged 15­49 Stunted Underweight Wasted were significantly higher in urban areas than in rural Northern Region 38.1 19.8 5.6 areas in 1999. Rates were between 26 and 28 percent Central Region 47.8 24.3 4.0 in the urban districts of the Copperbelt, less than 20 Southern Region 39.7 20.4 5.1 percent in the urbanized districts in the southern region, and only 11 to 14 percent in rural districts. Malawi 43.2 22.2 4.6 Rates are decreasing in the urban districts but still Source: Malawi National Statistical Office 2005. 11 Zambia Ministry of Health (1999), here taken from Scott Wilson-Piésold 2003a, Chapter 2 (2­16). 58 Biophysical and Socioeconomic Context percent in rural areas. The southern region, with a Adult literacy in Zimbabwe is relatively high prevalence of 19.5 percent, is more stricken than any compared with neighboring countries, with an of the other regions in the country. average literacy rate of 88.1 percent in 2001 and In Mozambique, the level of child malnutrition with only minor variations among regions (north has been slowly decreasing since 1996­97. In 2003, Matabeleland has the second-lowest level at 83.2 30 percent of children under five were stunted, percent) (UNDP 2003). Net enrollment rates in 22.3 percent were underweight, and four percent primary school have remained high in Zimbabwe suffered from wasting. HIV/AIDS prevalence in at around 96 percent, with almost equal enrollment the Mozambican part of ZRB is among the highest of girls and boys, although completion rates seem in the country. In 2004 estimates of prevalence rates to be declining. were over 26 percent among adults (15­49 years) In the Lower Zambezi River Basin, the general in Sofala, over 18 percent in Zambezia, and over educational level is poor. In Malawi, 28 percent have 16 percent in Tete (Republic of Mozambique 2005: no education, 56 percent have attended primary 41), compared with the rising country average of school, and 18 percent have attended secondary 16 percent. education or above (Malawi National Statistical The proportion of underweight under-five chil- Office 2005). Among rural women in Malawi, 33.4 dren is high in the Zimbabwean parts of the Lower percent have no education, while 61.3 percent have ZRB. The prevalence of underweight children attended primary school, and five percent have at- ranged from 15.2 percent (Mashonaland East) to tended secondary school or higher. For rural men, 17.4 percent (Mashonaland Central). By comparison, the figures are 22.9 percent with no education, 66.4 the national average was 13 percent in 1999 (UNDP percent with a primary school education, and 10.4 2003). percent with secondary or higher education (Zam- In the Upper Zambezi River Basin, the edu- bia Central Statistical Office 2006). Only 52 percent cational levels vary between riparian countries. of adult women are literate, compared with 76 Primary school enrollment has reached almost percent of adult men. 100 percent in the Caprivi Region, as in the rest of The overall adult literacy rate in Mozambique Namibia (Afridev Associates 2004); meanwhile, it was 46.4 percent in 2003. Rates differed significantly is 95 percent in Botswana (IMF 2007b), 66 percent between men (63.3 percent) and women (32 percent) in Zambia (Scott Wilson Piésold 2003a), and a low (Republic of Mozambique 2005: 13). In the agricul- 56 percent in Angola (World Bank 2006a). Adult tural sector, almost 87 percent of the labor force has literacy in Namibia is 83 percent for women and no formal education (beyond basic literacy) though 87 percent for men (World Bank 2007a), while only that figure has increased slightly since 1997. School 67 percent overall in Angola (World Bank 2006a). enrollment has improved since 1997. In 2002 enroll- As with health in the Middle Zambezi River ment rates for girls reached almost the same level Basin, educational attainment has suffered seriously as for boys (World Bank 2008b, annex table 2). The from the general economic decline in Zambia since net enrollment rate of girls in primary school was the 1980s. The rising number of students has been 73.2 percent in 2004. serviced through more intensive use of existing Adult literacy in Zimbabwe is high compared infrastructure with larger classes, shift teaching, with neighboring countries. Literacy levels in and shorter days. Net enrollment in primary school Mashonaland East and West are almost as high as fell from 80 percent to 66 percent between 1996 and the national average. In 2001 Mashonaland Central 2000. Developments in enrollment since 2000 have had the lowest rate in the country, at 80.2 percent not yet been documented. More recent numbers (UNDP 2003). indicate a resurgence to 96 percent. 59 3 Beneficial Uses of Water 3.1 energyandhydropower Hydropower is one of the major resources in the ZRB. Total de- veloped capacity is approximately 5,000 MW, primarily on the Zambezi River's main stem and along two of its major tributaries, the Kafue and the Shire Rivers. The total potential development is some 13,000 MW. Yet, because of regional power exchanges and the desire to integrate the power pool across countries, development of energy within the Basin cannot be considered in isolation. The main institution that oversees the power sector in southern Africa is the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). 3.1.1 southernafricanpowerpool(sapp) The SAPP was created in August 1995 when member governments of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) (except for Mauritius) signed an intergovernmental memorandum of un- derstanding (MoU) for the formation of an electricity power pool in the region under the name of the SAPP. The objective of the SAPP is to provide reliable and economical electricity supply to consumers through coordination of and cooperation in the planning and opera- tion of the various systems to minimize costs and maintain reliability. Development of a pool plan for optimal expansion of the generation and transmission systems for the region supports this objective. The potential benefits of coordinated planning include reduced required generating capacity, reduced fuel costs, and improved use of hydro- electric energy. The objectives of the SAPP are to: · Provide a forum for the development of a world-class, robust, safe, efficient, reliable, and stable interconnected electrical system in the southern African region; · Coordinate and enforce common regional standards of quality of supply, measurement, and monitoring of system performance; · Harmonize relationships among member utilities; · Facilitate the development of regional expertise through training programs and research; 61 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis · Increase power accessibility in rural communi- · Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (ZESA) ties; and, · Implement strategies in support of sustainable In addition, two private utilities are also mem- development priorities. bers of the SAPP. They are: All participating electricity enterprises must · Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB), owned be situated in a country that was a member of by the majority shareholder (government of the SADC in September 1994. Full membership is Mozambique) that operates the Cahora Bassa restricted to one national utility per country. Mem- hydropower plant. bership of non-SADC country utilities is subject to · MONTRACO, a joint venture between ESKOM approval by a two-third majority of the SAPP Ex- and EdM that owns and operates the Mozam- ecutive Committee and subsequent ratification by bique to South Africa transmission line. the SADC Energy Ministers' Committee. The SAPP members have signed the Inter-utility MoU and can The SAPP power system consists of nine inter- only participate in the Planning and Environmental connected utilities, as well as three isolated utili- Subcommittee. A key objective of the Planning Sub- ties: ENE, ESCOM, and TANESCO. ESCOM and committee is to conduct relevant studies to allow for TANESCO plan to interconnect by 2010. Another the construction of interconnections with members interconnector between the HCB and ESCOM who are still isolated from the main network. There system is nearly complete. Many important fac- are two categories of membership: tors have helped shape the SAPP region's current power system: large, low-cost coal deposits (espe- · Operating members are signatories of all princi- cially in South Africa leading to the predominance pal documents governing SAPP. Their system is of coal for fuel and electric energy production in interconnected with at least one other member. the region); substantial hydroelectric potential They are responsible for meeting all policy pro- throughout much of the region (especially along cedures and guidelines established by the SAPP. the Congo, Zambezi, and Kafue rivers, see table · Non-operating members are signatories to only 3.1); the dominance of South Africa which sup- one SAPP principle document--the Inter-utility plies about 80 percent of demand and generation MoU. They participate in all activities except for electricity; the necessity of long-distance, those related to operation of the power pool. high-voltage transmission facilities to move large amounts of power from coal fields and hydro National utilities that are members of the SAPP sites; and the region's very large surface area, with include: nearly 3,000 kilometers between Luanda and Dar es Salaam and nearly 3,500 kilometers between · Electricidade de Moçambique (EdM) Kinshasa and Durban. · Botswana Power Corporation (BPC) Nine of the national systems are intercon- · Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi nected: (ESCOM) · Empresa Nacional de Electricidad (ENE, An- · A +500 kV DC link connects Inga in the west- gola) ern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and · ESKOM, Republic of South Africa Kolwezi in the southeastern DRC, ultimately · Lesotho Electricity Corporation (LEC) connecting to the ZESCO at 220 kV. · NamPower, Namibia · A +533 kV DC link connects Songo near HCB in · Société Nationale d'Électricité (SNEL), Demo- Mozambique with ESKOM's Apollo substation cratic Republic of Congo in South Africa. · Swaziland Electricity Board (SEB) · The 765 kV ESKOM system extends from the · Tanzania Electric Supply Company (TANESCO) coalfields in northeastern South Africa toward · Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) Cape Town in the southwest. 62 Beneficial Uses of Water maximum voltage is 132 kV. The TANESCO Table 3.1. SAPP regional network generation expects a 330 kV interconnection with the capacity (2007) ZESCO by 2010, but until then its maximum Installed capacity (MW) voltage is 220 kV. Hydro- Natural Utility Coal power gas Others Total The World Bank sector strategy and implication BPC 120 0 0 0 120 for regional approaches is outlined in Appendix IV of its Regional Integration Assistance Strategy EdM 0 2,157 0 64 2,221 (RIAS) (March 2008). A summary of the strategy is ENE 0 474 250 25 749 reproduced in table 3.2. ESCOM 0 282 0 17 299 The power sector in southern Africa reflects ESKOM 37,425 2,061 0 342 39,828 the general situation in Sub-Saharan Africa, which LEC 0 73 0 0 73 is experiencing a power crisis characterized by in- NamPower 108 240 0 24 372 sufficient capacity, low electricity connection rates, SEB 0 42 0 0 42 high prices, and poor reliability. The power sector SNEL 0 2,333 0 0 2,333 in the region has the following features: TANESCO 0 561 485 78 1,124 · A history of underinvestment followed by a ZESCO 0 1,752 0 10 1,762 recent abrupt change from power surplus to ZESA 1,155 750 0 0 1,905 power deficit. Power shortfalls are now com- Total 38,808 10,725 735 560 50,828 mon and causing load shedding and economic % Total 76% 21% 1% 1% 100% disruption in a number of the SAPP countries, in Source: NEXANT 2007. particular Mozambique, Malawi, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. · The pool is dominated by ESKOM of South · ESKOM's 400 kV system connects through Africa, which accounts for about 80 percent of the BPC to ZESA, to NamPower and to EdM the total SAPP demand and produces roughly directly and via the SEB. the same percentage of energy. · ESKOM also connects to NamPower and EdM · Coal is the predominant source of generation at 220 kV. (77 percent), sourced from the large deposits · ESKOM connects to the BPC, LEC, and EdM in South Africa and Botswana, but many of at 132 kV. the coal-fired power stations are old and need · The ZESCO's main system is at 330 kV, supple- refurbishment. mented by a 220-kV system operated by the · The balance of the system is mainly hydropow- Copperbelt Energy Corporation PLC (CEC) er. The Congo and Zambezi river basins have in the north. Its connection with the ZESA at a number of large hydropower plants and the Kariba is at 330 kV. potential for more. There are also many smaller · The ZESA operates both 330 kV and 400 kV schemes throughout the region. systems. There is also a second 330 kV intercon- · Nuclear power accounts for only about five nection from Songo, near HCB. percent of generation (from the Koberg plant · The ZESA and BPC are connected at 220 KV in South Africa), but it is growing and likely between Marvel and Francistown, but that line to become significantly more important in the is normally open. future. South Africa's Nuclear Energy Corpora- · The three isolated systems have lower volt- tion expects the nuclear share to increase to 30 age lines. The ENE has three separate isolated percent by 2030. areas and a maximum voltage of 220 kV. The · Transmission distances are large. Moving sub- ESKOM expects a 220 kV interconnection stantial amounts of power around, from distant with EdM in the near future, but until then its coal fields or hydro sites, requires high-voltage 63 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.2. World Bank Regional Integration Assistance Strategy: Africa Power Sector (2008) World Bank Regional Integration Assistance Strategy Objectives Strategy: Clean Energy for Development Investment Framework: World Bank Group Action Plan (2007) · Supports Africa Energy Scale-up Program to increase number of households with access to modern energy from current low level of 25% to 35% by 2015 and 47% by 2030 · Supports transition to a low carbon economy · Supports countries' adaptation to climate variability and change · Explores options for enhanced financial products Strategy: Africa Region: Energy Challenges and Opportunities Energy Scale-up Plan for Support development of regional power gen- Africa (2007) eration and transmission projects, and national · Growing consensus that action on energy is critical to reduce poverty projects that have a regional impact. · Regional programs including large hydropower generation, transmission, and hydrocarbon projects are vital for region countries Support capacity development of regional · Regional institutions are gearing up to deliver economic communities (RECs), river basin or- ganizations (RBOs), and regional power pools. Action Plan for Energy Access in Sub-Saharan Africa · Track 1: Rollout grid and off-grid programs · Track 2: Enhance generation and transmission (development of hydropower, gas, and other resources at national and regional level ­ main avenue of Bank support) · Track 3: Electricity/lighting for services and institutions · Track 4: Lighting bottom of pyramid · Track 5: Sustainable fuels Source: World Bank Regional Integration Assistance Strategy (March 2008). transmission facilities over long distances and Victoria Falls often across international borders. · Indigenous hydrocarbon resources are of growing Victoria Falls hydropower consists of three power importance. Offshore gas fields in Mozambique plants: and Namibia offer the prospect of clean-burning thermal generation as an alternative to coal. · Plant A, commissioned in 1937, has an installed capacity of 8 MW (2 x 1 MW and 3 x 2 MW) but After a long period of low economic growth has had its rating lowered to 4.8 MW. and power surpluses, the SAPP region is now expe- · Plant B, commissioned in 1968, has an installed riencing serious power deficits, which has resulted capacity of 60 MW (6 x 10 MW). serious economic repercussions in a number of · Plant C, commissioned in 1972, has an installed countries, including South Africa, Malawi, Zambia, capacity of 40 MW (4 x 10 MW). and Zimbabwe. There is now a serious drive to re- habilitate and upgrade existing hydro and thermal All three plants have a common nominal effec- power stations and to build new generating capacity. tive head of 105­106 meters and are fed by a left- bank diversion at the level of the falls. The plant does not run year round; production is curtailed 3.1.2 existinghydropowerplantsinthe during low flows to maintain discharge at the falls. Zambeziriverbasin The average power factor is 32 percent. Since the A total of almost 5,000 MW of hydropower has been falls are among the world's most important natural developed in the Basin. The major hydropwer plants monuments, there are no plans to upgrade existing (HPP) are listed in table 3.3. units or add capacity. 64 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.3. Existing hydropower in the Zambezi River Basin Name Utility River Country Type Capacity (MW) Victoria Falls ZESCO Zambezi Zambia Run-of-River 108 Kariba ZESCO/ZESA Zambezi Zambia & Zimbabwe Reservoir 1,470 Itezhi Tezhi ZESCO Kafue Zambia Reservoir n/a Kafue Gorge Upper ZESCO Kafue Zambia Reservoir 990 Mulungushi ZESCO Mulungushi Zambia Reservoir 20 Lunsemfwa ZESCO Lunsemfwa Zambia Reservoir 18 Lusiwasi Private Lusiwasi Zambia Pondage 12 Cahora Bassa HCB Zambezi Mozambique Reservoir 2,075 Wovwe ESCOM Wovwe Malawi Pondage 4.35 Nkula Falls A&B ESCOM Shire Malawi Pondage 124 Tedzani ESCOM Shire Malawi Pondage 90 Kapichira stage I ESCOM Shire Malawi Pondage 64 Source: NEXANT 2008. Kariba plant (KGU), which was completed in 1972. The power plant is being upgraded from 900 to 990 MW. The Kariba reservoir provides storage for two Each of its six units have been refurbished, turbines power plants: the Kariba South Bank powerplant, reprofiled, and generators rewound and commis- which has an installed capacity of 750 MW; and sioned. At its full supply level of 1,030.5 meters, the Kariba North Bank power plant, which has the Itezhi Tezhi reservoir has a surface area of 390 an installed capacity of 720 MW. Kariba Dam was km2 and a volume of over six km3. The reservoir completed in 1958, and the power plants have been provides only partial regulation to the KGU: below in operation since 1961. The Kariba reservoir is the the dam the lower Kafue River meanders for some second largest man-made lake in Africa after the 250 kilometers through the Kafue Flats, a vast ex- Lake Volta, with a surface area of 5,577 km2 and a panse of wetland fed by flash tributaries. Outflow volume of nearly 65 km3 at a full supply level of from Itezhi Tezhi therefore lags for about one and 488.5 meters. The Kariba South Bank powerplant a half, to two months. Similar to Kariba, the Itezhi was recently upgraded to 750 MW and the Kariba Tezhi spillway is inadequate to pass extreme floods, North Bank to 720 MW. Each powerhouse consists and a rule curve has been designed to draw the of six identical units. At Kariba North, space was al- reservoir down prior to flood seasons. In addition, located at construction time for housing two future the reservoir must release a minimum flow of 40 supplementary units. m3 per second: 25 m3 per second for environmental The spillway consists of six gates located at the concerns and 15 m3 per second for water abstrac- top of the dam. These gates cannot be operated to re- tions downstream of the flats to provide drinking lease artificial floods at lower reservoir levels. Since water for Lusaka and Mazabuka as well as other the spillway is inadequate to pass extreme floods, the usages. During the month of March the minimum reservoir is drawn down prior to the flood season. release is increased to 315 m3 per second. Itezhi Tezhi and Kafue Gorge Upper Mulungushi Itezhi Tezhi Dam (ITT) and reservoir was completed The Mulungushi power plant is located on the in 1977 to regulate the Kafue Gorge Upper power Mulungushi River in the Luangwa subcatchment. 65 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis It consists of four Pelton turbine units of various Nkula Falls capacities, installed between 1924 and 1947 with an effective head of 325 meters and an original capac- The Nkula Falls hydropower development, commis- ity of 20 MW, although that has been downsized to sioned in 1966 and located on the Shire downstream 16 MW. A small reservoir with 0.23 km3 capacity, of Liwonde, consists of two powerhouses: Nkula A located five kilometers upstream of the powerhouse, (three Francis turbines of eight MW, totaling 24 MW) provides regulation. and Nkula B (five Francis turbines of 20 MW, totaling 100 MW). The total capacity at Nkula Falls is 124 MW. Lunsemfwa Tedzani The Lunsemfwa powerhouse is located on the Lun- semfwa River, a tributary of the Luangwa. Commis- The Tedzani hydropower development, located on sioned in 1945, its total capacity is 18 MW through the Shire and downstream of Nkula Falls, consists of three Francis units of six MW each. Flow regulation three powerhouses: Tedzani I (two Francis turbines of is provided by a reservoir located some 30 kilome- 11 MW), Tedzani II (two Francis turbines of 11 MW), ters from the powerhouse, with a surface area of 45 and Tedzani III (two Francis turbines of 26 MW). Ted- km2. Some miscellaneous information indicates that zani I and II stopped operating in 2001, leading to a the Lusiwasi powerhouse, located on the Lusiwasi shortfall of some 40 MW. The total capacity at Tedzani River within the Lungwa subcatchment, has been HPP is 90 MW as the units are being rehabilitated. upgraded from 12 to 52 MW. This information could not be confirmed and recent energy-related Kapichira studies do not mention the upgrade. According to 2007 parliamentary debates transcripts, the ZESCO Kapichira Phase I, recently completed and located was refurbishing Lusiwasi, which has a capacity of on the Shire River downstream of Tedzani, consists only four MW. of two 32 MW Francis units, totaling 64 MW. The head ponds of all three power plants lo- cated on the Shire River (Nkula Falls, Tedzani, and Cahora Bassa Kapichira) are severely affected by siltation and thus The Cahora Bassa development is the largest hy- require periodical dredging. dropower development in the Basin. It consists of an arch dam, a large reservoir with a surface area 3.1.3 potentialhydropowerprojectsinthe of 2,675 km2, a volume of 51.75 km3 at a full supply Zambeziriverbasin level of 326 meters, and a powerhouse of five 415 MW Francis units (totaling 2,075 MW). The scheme The ZRB has vast hydropower potential approach- was completed in 1974 with the primary objective ing 13,000 MW. Table 3.4. presents the projects that to export power to South Africa. During the civil have been identified or evaluated according to this war, however, the interconnector was destroyed. reference. Corrections and improvement to potential For 20 years, it provided only 18 MW to the city of estimates have been updated as part of the study Tete and the town of Songo. Full production was after consultation workshops with representatives reestablished in 2000. Unlike Kariba, the Cahora from the riparian countries during 2009. Bassa spillway is located below the minimum oper- Other than the information provided in the as- ating level and can therefore discharge to partially sessment by Euroconsult Mott MacDonald (2007), restore natural flooding at any reservoir level. The no source of information has been identified for the development lacks a bottom sluice to empty the small hydropower schemes in Angola. reservoir, however, and the total spillway capacity The potential hydropower plants described in is inadequate to handle extreme floods. Prior to the detail below were included in the recent regional flooding season, the reservoir is therefore drawn generation planning studies or not considered on down to preset levels prescribed by a rule curve. economic or environmental grounds. Little or no 66 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.4. Potential hydropower in the Zambezi River Basin (by country) Country River HP/Reservoir Capacity (MW) Study stage Angola Lumbage 1 1 n/a Angola Zambezi 2 4 n/a Angola Zambezi 3 2 n/a Angola Luvua 4 1 n/a Angola Luizavo 5 11 n/a Angola Ludevu 6 3 n/a Angola Lumache 7 1 n/a Angola Lufuige 8 2 n/a Angola Macondo 9 3 n/a Malawi Shire Kapichira II 64 Feasibility Malawi Shire Kholombidzo High 240 Prefeasibility Malawi Shire Kholombidzo Low 217 Prefeasibility Malawi Shire Mpatamanga 263 n/a Malawi S. Rukuru/N. Rumphi Lower Fufu 100 n/a Malawi South Rukuru Lower Fufu North 70­170 n/a Malawi High Fufu 85­175 n/a Malawi Henga Valley 20­40 n/a Malawi Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa Pumped storage >1,500 n/a Malawi Songwe Manolo 55­125 n/a Malawi Bua Mbongozi 25­55 n/a Malawi Bua Malenga 30­65 n/a Malawi Bua Chizuma 110­170 n/a Malawi Bua Chasonmbo 25­55 n/a Malawi Ruo Zoa Falls 20­40 n/a Malawi Dwambazi Chimgonda 20­50 n/a Malawi/Tanzania Songwe Songwe 340 Feasibility Mozambique Zambezi HCB North Bank 850 Feasibility Mozambique Zambezi Mphanda Nkuwa 2,000 Financing Mozambique Zambezi Boroma 444 Prefeasibility Mozambique Zambezi Lupata 654 n/a Mozambique Zambezi Ancuaze-Sinjal I 330­600 n/a Mozambique Zambezi Chemba 1,040 n/a Mozambique Revubue 1 36 n/a Mozambique Revubue 2 110 n/a Mozambique Revubue 3 85 n/a Mozambique Luia 4 267 n/a Mozambique Capoche 5 60 n/a Tanzania Ruhuhu Masigira 118 n/a Tanzania Rumakali Rumakali 256 n/a Continued on next page 67 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.4. Potential hydropower in the Zambezi River Basin (by country) (continued) Country River HP/Reservoir Capacity (MW) Study stage Zambia Kabompo Kabompo Gorge 34 Reconstruction Zambia Kabompo Chikata Falls 3.5 Reconstruction Zambia Lunga West Lunga 2.5 Reconstruction Zambia Zambezi Chavuma Falls 10­20 Reconstruction Zambia Zambezi Katombora n/a Prefeasibility Zambia Zambezi Victoria Falls Extension 390 n/a Zambia Zambezi Kariba North Extension 360 Feasibility Zambia Kafue Kafue Gorge Lower 750 Financing Zambia Kafue Itezhi Tezhi 120 Financing Zambia Lusiwasi Lusiwasi Extension 40 n/a Zambia and Zimbabwe Zambezi Batoka Gorge 1,600 Feasibility Zambia and Zimbabwe Zambezi Devils Gorge 1,200 Reconstruction Zambia and Zimbabwe Zambezi Mupata Gorge 640­1,200 Reconstruction Zimbabwe Zambezi Victoria Falls (Zimbabwe) 300 Prefeasibility Zimbabwe Zambezi Kariba South Extension 300 Feasibility information has been obtained on the other potential a site 50 kilometers downstream of Victoria Falls. It sites listed in table 3.4. would include a 181 meter dam and provide up to 800 MW of capacity each for Zambia and Zimba- Katombora Reservoir bwe. A full feasibility study was completed in 1993 (Batoka Joint Venture Consultants 1993). The scheme The Katombora reservoir, would be located some is considered a serious contender for development 60 kilometers upstream of Victoria Falls, and be in the medium term. relatively large. With a surface area of 7,733 km2 at a full supply level of 940 meters and a live stor- Devil's Gorge age of six km3, it would be intended to firm up the energy production of two large power plants at Another proposed bilateral project on the Zambezi, Victoria Falls: one of 390 MW on the Zambian side Devils Gorge (1,200 MW), would be built between to replace the existing Victoria Falls power plant; the Batoka Gorge and Kariba with a capacity of 600 and a second of 300 MW on the Zimbabwean side. MW at each bank. Developing this project has been Katombora would also firm up energy production postponed in the foreseeable future due to economic at the potential Batoka Gorge and Devils Gorge unfeasibility. developments. Development of hydropower at Katombora and Victoria Falls would have serious Kariba Extension environmental impacts on the discharge available at the falls and therefore has not received further Additions of 360 MW and 300 MW to the exist- consideration for the foreseeable future. ing capacities each of the Kariba North Bank and Kariba South Bank, respectively, are proposed for Batoka Gorge the medium term. Because space for two additional units was allocated at construction time of the Batoka Gorge, a bilateral hydropower project be- original plant, the extension of the Kariba North tween Zambia and Zimbabwe, would be located at powerhouse is relatively straightforward. In the 68 Beneficial Uses of Water case of Kariba South, the powerhouse will have to large enough to control major floods in the Songwe be extended. River would need to be quite large, and exploiting the hydropower potential provides the opportu- Mupata Gorge nity to recoup the implementation costs. Three sites--Songwe I, II, and III--have been identified. Mupata Gorge, located on the Zambezi just before The hydropower plants should be designed for it flows into Mozambique territory, would also be a combined hydropower and flood control. In the hydropower project shared by Zambia and Zimba- feasibility study, a range of installed capacities were bwe. It would have an installed capacity of between considered (NORPLAN 2003). In 2009, the govern- 640 and 1200 MW. The project would at times flood ments of Malawi and Tanzania investigated those Mana Pools, a UNESCO World Heritage site located projects further, assuming an installed capacity of on the south bank of the Zambezi in Zimbabwe 34 MW, 157 MW, and 149 MW for Songwe I, II, and upstream of the Mupata Gorge, and is therefore not III, respectively. Even if the three reservoirs are feasible with respect to environmental priorities. operated primarily for flood mitigation, each has sufficient volume in relation to inflows to firm up Itezhi Tezhi reservoir yield and energy production. The Itezhi Tezhi hydropower extension, would be Rumakali located at the existing dam site and consist of an underground powerhouse housing of two 60 MW The Rumakali Hydropower Scheme would be Kaplan units. A feasibility study was completed in located on the Rumakali River 85 kilometers west 1999 (HARZA Engineering Company 1999) and the of Njombe in the Iringa Region of southwestern power deficit in Zambia has put the project on the Tanzania (SwedPower and Norconsult 1998). The fast track for development. The Itezhi Tezhi reser- scheme comprises a storage dam in the river, an in- voir is operated mainly for regulation of the Kafue take close to the dam, and a system of underground Gorge Upper and is subject to various constraints; tunnels and penstock systems under the escarpment therefore the Itezhi Tezhi power plant would not leading down to an underground power station be operated to firm up energy but rather to gener- housing three 74 MW Pelton units at the foot of the ate available energy in accordance with reservoir escarpment about seven kilometers from the intake. variation. From the power station, water will be discharged back to the river via a three kilometers long tailrace Kafue Gorge Lower tunnel ending about two kilometers upstream of the confluence with the Lufirio River. The reservoir has A feasibility study of developing 600 MW, with an sufficient volume in relation to inflows to firm up additional bay for 150 MW, capacity in the Kafue reservoir yield and energy production. Gorge Lower was completed in 1995 (HARZA En- gineering Company 1995). In 2006 a site selection Lower Fufu report that considered an installed capacity of 750 MW was submitted to the ZESCO (MHW Global A prefeasibility study of the Lower Fufu, a run-of- 2006). This development is a serious contender in the-river (R-o-R) project, concentrates on the hy- the medium term. dropower potential of the south Rukuru and north Rumphi Rivers. The study suggests that it is possible Songwe to apply the "collect and transfer" principle--that is, to combine the water resources of the two rivers, A study of stabilization of the course of the Songwe and construct an underground R-o-R power station River, which forms the border between Malawi near Chiweta. The scheme will divert a maximum and Tanzania, also analyzed the development of of approximately 30 m3 per second (the total of both hydropower capacity (NORPLAN 2003). Dams rivers) by constructing a concrete diversion dam 69 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis and intake arrangements in two places: on the south The second alternative, the Low Kholombidzo Rukuru River close to the M1-highway near Jalawe HPP, with highest regulated water level at 471 me- village, and on the north Rumphi approximately ter elevation would have the same layout but with a five kilometers upstream of the Mchenga coal mine. head pond that would be 4.3 meter lower. The Low Two alternative systems of tunnels have been con- Kholombidzo HPP would not be able to regulate sidered, both with a total length of 15 kilometers, the level of Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa since the leading down to an underground power station lake outflow stops at level 471.5 meters. The exist- south of Chiweta with an installation of two 45 MW ing regulating barrage at Liwonde would have to units. A 45 kilometer, 132 kV transmission line will be upgraded or reconstructed for this purpose. The connect to the main grid at Bwengu. main dam at Kholombidzo falls would regulate the flow from the catchment between Liwonde and Kholombidzo Kholombidzo and control the reservoir of the Low Kholombidzo HPP. Two alternatives have been analyzed for hydro- power development at Kholombidzo (Norconsult Kapichira 2003). The first, High Kholombidzo HPP, would have highest regulated water level at 475.3 meter The second phase of the Kapichira hydroelectric elevation. It has been suggested for hydropower power project will entail the addition of an addi- development of the hydraulic head of about 75 tional 64 MW of capacity. The existing power station meter between Kholombidzo falls and Toni rapids was designed for 128 MW but produces only 64 MW. and would function as a level control for Lake The project will comprise mainly electromechanical Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. Control of the outflow installations involving the design, supply, installa- from Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa would be ac- tion, and commissioning of two 32 MW machines, complished through operating the power plant. In transformers, switchgear, and a power transmis- case of floods, water would be released through sion line that will link into the main ESCOM grid the flood gates at the diversion dam just upstream at the Blantyre West substation. Civil works for the of the Kholombidzo Falls. This alternative would two machines would be minimal since most were make the gated barrage at Liwonde superfluous, already undertaken for the two machines under and the gates would need to be removed. The High the development of the first phase, commissioned Kholombidzo Dam would be located in the Shire in 2000. River between the Kholombidzo Falls and Liwonde at a level that would inundate about 4.5 kilometers Cahora Bassa North Bank of the railway in the Mpimbe area, including the Shire River bridge crossing and part of the Ndala- The Cahora Bassa North Bank is an extension of the Blantyre road. The High Kholombidzo Dam would existing development. The project consists of a new only partially control the outflow of Lake Malawi/ underground powerhouse on the north bank of the Niassa/Nyasa. It may increase outflow for a short Zambezi River with three 283.3 MW Francis units period by emptying the Kholombidzo headpond, as (Norconsult 2003). A new spillway, with a design Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa would retain its natu- discharge of 3,600 m3 per second and comprising ral outlet control. This would not have been the case two tunnels, would allow operation of the Cahora with the original high dam, which was projected Bassa reservoir without using the present flood rule at a higher crest level that would have allowed full curve, which requires lowering the lake level before control of the lake drawdown and allowed for the the high-flow period. development of a larger HPP. This original pro- posal was abandoned however, as it would have Mphanda Nkuwa flooded prime agricultural land and infrastructure, displaced a large population, and increased the The Mphanda Nkuwa project site is located some potential for severe flooding downstream. 60 kilometers downstream of the Cahora Bassa 70 Beneficial Uses of Water Dam. The project comprises a 101 meter high roll- Two regional generation-planning studies com- er-compacted concrete (RCC) dam impounding a missioned by the World Bank--NEXANT 2007 and reservoir with a surface area of approximately 100 ECON Pöyry 2008--were recently completed. The km2. The dam will be surmounted by an integral NEXANT study considers the planning horizon spillway commanded by 13 radial crest gates. A 2008­25, and the ECON study considers 2005­15. surface powerhouse with an installed capacity of Power utility members of the SAPP have developed 1,300 MW composed of four 325 MW units would formal and informal generation plans for systems be located adjacent to the dam on the left bank that are either isolated or partially integrated by (Joint Venture LI-EDF-KP 2002). Recent estimates existing interties. This fragmented approach results for total capacity as been increased to 2,000 MW. in significant differences of reserve margins across However, the development of up to 2,275 MW at countries. In addition, the overall regional reserve Mphanda Nkuwa would be possible in the future margin exceeds the reserve that would be needed either by making provisions for future extension should the regional grid be integrated. The purpose to the power station on the north bank at the site, of the two studies was to evaluate a least-cost al- or by a separate underground power station on ternative that would integrate the SAPP network-- the south bank. This would need to be accompa- including the transmission components necessary to nied by development of the Boroma project to assure the power pool integration--while maintain- provide regulation of fluctuating downstream ing an adequate reserve margin. river flows. In the NEXANT regional load forecast, net The Boroma reservoir would only be needed peak demand varies from 41,400 MW in 2006 to if Mphanda Nkuwa is developed to its full poten- 71,500 MW in 2025. Net generation varies from tial. If only the first 1,300 MW phase is developed, 272,200 GWh to 471,300 GWh over the same period. Mphanda Nkuwa will be operated as a R-o-R As the two regional studies neared completion, plant, and there would be no need for reregulation ESKOM publicly announced that it was revising its downstream. Otherwise, Mphanda Nkuwa will load forecast upward, and that it would develop likely operate in midmerit or peaking mode, which between 18,000 and 20,000 MW of nuclear power would require reregulation downstream that would between now and 2025. Two consortiums were bid- be provided by Boroma. In a second phase, a power ding for a 3,500 MW nuclear unit; both have pledged plant could be installed at the site where installed to develop the nuclear capacity. NEXANT revised its capacity has not been finalized. Construction is study in accordance with the new regional load fore- anticipated to start in 2011. cast so that net peak demand varies from some 42,750 MW in 2006 to 93,560 MW in 2025. Net generation 3.1.4 sappenergysectordevelopment varies from 290,780 GWh to 586,900 GWh over the same period. More recently, as a result of the current To overcome the energy deficit experienced by global economic crisis, South Africa has shelved its several countries in the region, there is now a seri- nuclear expansion plan, and the regional SAPP gen- ous drive to build new generating capacity and eration plan has reverted to the prenuclear option. rehabilitate and upgrade existing hydro and thermal The NEXANT study is the most up-to-date with power stations. Several HPPs, including the Kariba respect to hydropower development in the ZRB. North and South and KGU, have already been re- It has therefore been taken as the basis for future furbished. An intertie was also constructed between hydropower projects in the basin for the MSIOA Songo in Mozambique and Malawi. Financing is study. Table 3.5. presents the base case and alternate also being sought to extend the Kariba North and least-cost scenarios. The base case represents the South banks and Itezhi Tezhi. In addition, several aggregate generating units added on all national generation-planning studies are either underway or generation plans. The alternative case represents were recently completed, both at the national level the least-cost alternative to meet future capacity (such as the generation-planning study of Tanzania) and energy demand from a fully interconnected and the regional level. SAPP transmission network. The major difference 71 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.5. Future hydropower projects in the Zambezi River Basin (included in MSIOA) Base case Alternative case Capacity Operating Capacity Operating Project Status Utility River Country Type (MW) year (MW) year Tedzani 1 & 2 refurbishment ESCOM Shire Malawi Pondage 40 2008 40 2008 Kariba North refurbishment ZESCO Zambezi Zambia Reservoir 120 2008­2009 120 2008 Kafue Gorge refurbishment ZESCO Kafue Zambia Pondage 150 2009 150 2009 Upper Kapichira II extension ESCOM Shire Malawi Pondage 64 2010 64 2010 Kariba North extension ZESCO Zambezi Zambia Reservoir 360 2010 360 2012 HCB North Bank extension HCB Zambezi Mozambique Reservoir n/a n/a 850 2012 Itezhi Tezhi extension ZESCO Kafue Zambia Reservoir 120 2013 120 2013 Kariba South extension ZESA Zambezi Zimbabwe Reservoir 300 2014 300 2014 Songwe I, II & III new project ESCOM Songwe Malawi, Reservoirs 340 2014­2016 340 2024 Tanzania Batoka Gorge new project ZESA Zambezi Zimbabwe Pondage 800 2017 800 2023­2024 South Batoka Gorge new project ZESCO Zambezi Zambia Pondage 800 2017 800 2023­2024 North Kafue Gorge new project ZESCO Zambezi Zambia Pondage 750 2017 750 2017­2022 Lower Mphanda Nkuwa new project EdM Zambezi Mozambique Pondage 1,300 2020 2,000 2024 Lower Fufu new project ESCOM S. Ruhuru Malawi Run-of-River n/a n/a 100 2024 Kholombidzo new project ESCOM Shire Malawi Pondage n/a n/a 240 2025 Rumakali new project TANESCO Rumakali Tanzania Reservoir 222 2022 256 n/a Source: NEXANT 2008. Note: The estimated capacity of Kafue Gorge Lower is 600 MW with an additional bay for 150 MW. between the scenario (other than the operating Several new initiatives will have to be built or years) are that Rumakali will be part of the base existing ones strengthened for the SAPP to act as a scenario only, while the Cahora Bassa North Bank, power pool. Lower Fufu, and Kholombidzo are included only in the least-cost alternative. The base case scenario 3.1.5 strengthsandchallengesof presents the aggregate hydropower addition con- hydropowerdevelopmentintheZambezi sidered in the national power generation plans of riverbasin the eight riparian countries of the ZRB. Only those HPPs considered in those national generation plans Strengths are included in table 3.5. Since the NEXANT study reports were issued, With some 5,000 MW of developed capacity, 6,634 more studies have been completed or are ongoing. MW proposed for development before 2025, and They consider project characteristics different than several other major sites identified for development those adopted in the NEXANT study. For such cases, in the longer term, hydropower is one of the major such as Songwe in Malawi and Mphanda Nkuwa in resources of the Basin. Mozambique, the latest project data are presented Hydropower generated from water is cleaner in table 3.5. than fossil fuel sources and therefore contributes to 72 Beneficial Uses of Water the goal of the World Bank and other institutions of distillates--such as gas turbines and diesel--whose a transition to a low-carbon economy. The source is capital cost is relatively cheap but whose operating also renewable and does not consume fuel contrary costs are high. to thermal plants. Operational costs are minimal The construction of reservoirs may increase since they do not involve fuel spending and the navigation, promote the development of commer- technology is robust and requires less maintenance cial fisheries and prevent or mitigate disastrous than thermal and nuclear. flooding. The major reservoirs, Lake Kariba and One major drawback of thermal and nuclear Lake Cahora Bassa, are already built. Future devel- power plants is that they cannot respond instan- opments will comprise much smaller reservoirs, the taneously to a change in load. Instead, they have largest of which will be Mphanda Nkuwa, with a an inertia built into generation that translates into storage capacity of 2.32 km3 and a surface area of a slow response. These units are therefore best 96.5 km2 at full supply level. By comparison, Cahora suited to respond to base load. Hydropower units Bassa has a storage capacity of 51.75 km3 and a sur- on the other hand, can respond instantaneously face area of 3,040 km2 at full supply level. when they are running at "speed-no-load." In this mode of operation, a hydropower unit runs at Challenges synchronous speed without being connected to the system. It wastes some water. As the load picks up, Hydropower depends on river flows, which vary the unit can be connected nearly instantaneously. seasonally and cyclically with relatively little fore- Hydropower units are therefore ideally suited to cast. Power generation will therefore vary along operate in the midmerit and peak zones of the load with flow, especially in the ZRB. Reservoirs can curve. The alternative is to install units running on mitigate that effect somewhat by smoothing out Table 3.6. Hydropower ­ strengths and challenges Subbasin Strengths Challenges Upper Zambezi, from Ka- Only potential for small HPP There is no site for medium to large hydropower in this region. bompo to Barotse (13 to 9) Kafue (7) Extensive management of Kafue Operation of the Itezhi Tezhi reservoir affects the Kafue Flats wetland. A minimum River Basin release of 25 m3/s as e-flow has been prescribed at Itezhi Tezhi except in March when the minimum release should be 300 m3/s. It is not always possible to adhere to these flows. Kariba (6) Extensive cooperation between The Kariba spillway is located on top of the dam thus preventing restoration of governments of Zambia and Zim- natural flooding for the potential benefit of downstream riparian stakeholders. The babwe on managing Kariba Dam Kariba net evaporation represents 16 percent of the total inflow into the lake. The (i.e., Zambezi River Authority) Devils Gorge HPP development lacks financial feasibility. Shire River and Lake The HPPs on the Shire River are subject to heavy siltation that prevents them from oper- Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (3) ating to full capacity requiring periodic maintenance. It is possible that other develop- ments in the Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa catchment, especially Songwe, be affected. Tete (2) Growing cooperation between Operation and opening of the spillways of the Cahora Bassa Dam can at times flood management of Cahora Bassa and areas in the Zambezi floodplain at Tete leading to negative impact on encroaching Kariba Dams settlements. Flooding is much less severe than under natural conditions prior to the construction of the dam. As a result of flow regulation from Cahora Bassa Dam (and Kariba Dam to a certain extent), natural floods that are beneficial to the Zambezi Lower Delta have been reduced, threatening the environmental sustainability of the Delta. Cahora Bassa net evaporation represents 4 percent of the total inflow into the lake. 73 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis seasonal variation and, in the case of large reservoirs intended perimeters of the reservoir are often affected, such as Lake Kariba and Lake Cahora Bassa, peri- sometimes displaced. With the creation of a man- odicity. Yet the flow series observed on the Zambezi made lake, access to natural resources and ecosystem River and the Kafue River show extended periods services for livelihoods is also negatively impacted. of above and below normal flow. The discharges of the Zambezi River have been measured at Victoria 3.1.6 opportunitiesandconstraintsfor Falls since the late 1800s and more precisely since hydropowerdevelopmentintheZambezi 1907. The flow was below normal from 1907 to 1924, riverbasin then normal from 1924 to 1947, above normal from 1947 to 1981, and finally below normal from 1981 to Three of the countries where medium to large hy- date. The Kafue River behaves in a similar fashion. dropower can be developed suffer frequent critical On the other end, the inflows to Lake Malawi/Ni- energy shortages and must rapidly expand their assa/Nyasa analyzed since 1954 show much shorter power pool. It is therefore an opportune time to cycles that may vary from three to ten years, as the develop these resources (table 3.7). subbasin is in a wetter zone. At the time Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams were Capital costs for hydropower are high com- designed and built, the common objective was to pared with thermal and nuclear options, mainly develop hydropower without due consideration for due to intensive civil works. This presents a major multi-purpose usage or detrimental effects to other challenge for the development of hydropower in the sectors. Although a large-scale hydropower devel- Basin, given the difficulties in securing large-scale opment is proposed in the SAPP region over the financing. Depreciation is generally calculated over medium term, the benefits for isolated rural commu- a long period (typically 50 years), however, and the nities may take longer since extension of the grid may interest rate offered is favorable. Compared to ther- be slowed due to a number of social, physical and mal and nuclear, hydropower projects also require economic factors. There is potential for small-scale long lead times from studies to power commission- hydropower development in the Basin, particularly ing--typically from 10 to 15 years. in areas that are far from transmission lines. With the operation of reservoirs, especially large Small R-o-R hydropower units can be impor- ones, the flow regime changes to a regulated flow tant non-polluting renewable sources of energy at a that provides less variation than the natural flow. A considerably lower cost than wind or solar energy. new flow regime may have serious environmental Startup costs depend on the size and design of the implications for downstream areas, economic activ- system, but for very small systems investment costs ity, ecosystems, and population. start from $300 per kW. Small hydropower units can Water losses by evaporation in the area under be integrated with the local power grid if excess study, especially in the large reservoirs, can be large energy is produced. Site selection is important and and represent a significant amount of the basin power delivery may be low during dry periods water balance. unless ponds are considered. The major areas for Reservoirs trap sediments which has two major considerations are those in the upper part of the detrimental effects. First, sediment filling affects the Basin. These are the Kabompo (13), the Upper operation of the power plant and requires remedial Zambezi (12) and the Lungúe Bungo (11) subbasins; measures--such as reservoir flushing and dredg- the northern part of the Kafue (7) and Luangwa (5) ing--with associated maintenance costs. It may also subbasins; and the subcatchment of Lake Malawi/ severely affect downstream reaches where, during Niassa/Nyasa (3). the wet season, river bank erosion occurs for which Optimal operation of the Kariba and Cahora the deposition of sediment from upstream reaches Bassa reservoirs is dependent on the ability to fore- can no longer compensate. cast floods. The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) A reservoir will submerge the river valley and face challenges in forecasting floods for optimal thus the resources within. Fertile agricultural land operation of Kariba Dam in the medium to long- can be lost and people living in the valley or near the term. HCB has developed a tool for forecasting 74 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.7. Hydropower ­ opportunities and constraints Subbasin Opportunities Constraints Upper Zambezi, from Ka- Only small HPPs are planned. None. bompo to Barotse (13 to 9) Kariba (6) The development of the Batoka Gorge will significantly increase Devils Gorge HPP development lacks financial power production in Zambia and Zimbabwe, especially if it is operated viability. conjunctively with Kariba. Implementation of conjunctive operation between the Kariba system and other systems in the Basin. Kafue (7) Major HPP developments are considered at Itezhi Tezhi and KGU. Impacts on wetlands and irrigation develop- ment. Implementation of conjunctive operation between the Kafue system and other systems in the Basin. Shire River and Several HPP developments are considered in the Lake Malawi/Niassa/ The HPPs on the Shire River are and would Lake Malawi/Niassa/ Nyasa catchment (Rumakali, Songwe, and Lower Fufu) as well as the be subject to heavy siltation that prevents Nyasa (3) construction of Kholombidzo and extension of Kapichira on the Shire. them from operating to their full capacity and requires periodic maintenance. It is possible Malawi suffers a large generation deficit. that other developments in the Lake Malawi/ Implementation of conjunctive operation between the Shire/Lake Niassa/Nyasa catchment, especially Songwe, Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa system and other systems in the Basin. may also be affected. Tete (3) The development of Mphanda Nkuwa downstream from Cahora Bassa Investments have been lacking due to tremen- will provide supplementary power to the region. dous costs and time needed for exchanging shares of ownership of Cahora Bassa between The development of Cahora Bassa North will permit the generation of Portugal and Mozambique. peak power for the SAPP. Remedial measures have been proposed to release artificial floods from Cahora Bassa to improve conditions in the Delta. Implementation of conjunctive operation between the Cahora Bassa system and other systems in the Basin. floods into the Cahora Bassa reservoir. However, the 3.1.7 characteristicsandparametersof tool could be greatly improved if information from hydropowerplants upstream parts of the river could become available and on a regular basis. Developing an agreement Water usage and energy production were simulated and system for exchanging hydrometric informa- as part of the MSIOA so as to properly evaluate the tion between the operators of ZRA and HCB could productive and economic benefits of various op- bring a multitude of benefits. tions. To calculate energy production, a number of Countries rich in hydropower resources often parameters related to a reservoir, generating units, face difficulty in raising the necessary large amounts and spillway must be defined (as described in vol- of capital, especially when there are multi-sector ume 4). Those parameters have been obtained from development requirements. A portion of generated previous studies in the case of existing develop- energy is reserved for export to countries that are in ments and from prefeasibility or feasibility studies a better financial position, however, which can assist in the case of future developments. them in securing the required financing. In this re- The characteristics of the various projects are spect, recent decisions by South Africa to develop a presented in tables 3.8. through 3.54. large pool of nuclear generation can directly impact how financially viable and attractive it would be to develop hydropower in the Basin. 75 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Batoka Gorge (projected) Table 3.8. Batoka Gorge ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation Storage Outlet capacity (million m3) Area (km )2 Turbines (m /s)3 Spillway (m3/s) Total (m3/s) Elevation (m) Note 51 3.8 629 0 630 640 294 9.2 785 0 785 680 511 12.5 867 0 867 700 1,161 20.2 1,027 0 1,028 740 1,294 21.6 1,052 0 1,052 746 MOL 1,680 25.6 1,111 7,263 8,374 762 FSL 1,754 26.4 1,111 20,000 21,131 765 MFL Source: Batoka Joint Venture Consultants 1993; ZRA 2002. Note: MOL: minimum operating level; FSL: full supply level; MFL: minimum flow level. Table 3.9. Batoka Gorge ­ turbine characteristics Installed capacity (MW) 1,600 No. of units 8 Rated head, Hr (m) 166.56 Rated power, Pr (MW) 205.12 Rated discharge, Qr (m /s) 3 138.82 Average efficiency 0.88 Plant rated discharge (m /s) 3 1,111 Source: Batoka Joint Venture Consultants 1993; ZRA 2002. Table 3.10. Batoka Gorge ­ tailwater rating Discharge (m3/s) Tailwater level plus losses (m) 0 585.4 479 593.2 719 594.3 959 595.6 1,111 595.8 1,319 597.1 1,518 597.9 3,000 601.4 9,000 609.3 12,000 612.0 15,000 614.0 Source: Batoka Joint Venture Consultants 1993; ZRA Kariba (Existing HPP) 2002. 76 Beneficial Uses of Water Kariba (existing and extension) Table 3.11. Kariba ­ storage, area, outlet, elevation and peak power Storage Outlet capacity Peak power (million m3) Area (km ) 2 Turbines (m /s) Spillway (m3/s) 3 Total (m3/s) Elevation (m) Note (MW) 24 921 1,706 0 1,706 470.0 LSL 1,269 54 4,354 1,771 0 1,771 475.5 MOL 1,402 11,278 4,608 1,801 0 1,801 478.0 1,462 18,262 4,760 1,819 7,640 9,459 479.5 1,470 23,040 4,857 1,832 7,862 9,694 480.5 1,470 30,408 4,991 1,850 8,168 10,018 482.0 1,470 37,989 5,126 1,866 8,786 10,652 483.5 1,470 45,778 5,261 1,884 8,786 10,670 485.0 1,470 53,788 5,395 1,902 9,068 10,969 486.5 1,470 64,798 5,577 1,925 9,445 11,370 488.5 FSL 1,470 Source: Shawinigan Engineering and Hidrotecnica Portuguesa 1990. Peak power estimated by BRLi-NIRAS as part of MSIOA. Note: LSL: low supply level; MOL: minimum operating level; FSL: full supply level. Table 3.12. Lake Kariba ­ flood rule curve Month Month-end reservoir level (m) Month-end reservoir storage (million m3) Oct 486.5 53,788 Nov 486.0 50,769 Dec 485.5 48,204 Jan 484.0 40,666 Feb 485.4 47,696 Mar 487.8 60,221 Apr 488.5 64,798 May 488.5 64,798 Jun 488.5 64,798 Jul 488.0 61,662 Aug 487.5 58,808 Sep 487.0 56,054 Source: ZRA 2002. 77 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.13. Kariba HPP ­ turbine characteristics Kariba North Kariba South Total Original Actual Original Actual Actual Installed capacity (MW) 600 720 666 750 1,470 Rated discharge (m /s) 3 744 893 800 901 1,794 Rated net head (calculated) 91.3 94.3 92.8 Assumed efficiency rating 0.9 0.9 Assumed overall efficiency 0.89 Source: NIRAS 2003. Table 3.14. Lake Kariba ­ tailwater rating Discharge (m3/s) Tailwater level + losses (m) -- 375.95 479 383.70 719 384.86 959 386.19 1,319 387.67 1,518 388.48 3,000 391.96 9,000 399.87 12,000 402.55 15,000 404.55 Source: Shawinigan Engineering and Hidrotecnica Portuguesa 1990. Table 3.15. Lake Kariba future HPP ­ storage, area, outlet, elevation and peak power Outlet capacity Storage Area Turbines Spillway Total Elevation Peak power (million m3) (km2) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m) Note (MW) 24 921 2,671 0 2,671 470.0 LSL 2,021 54 4,354 2,771 0 2,771 475.5 MOL 2,231 11,278 4,608 2,825 0 2,825 478.0 2,327 18,262 4,760 2,851 7,640 10,491 479.5 2,340 23,040 4,857 2,873 7,862 10,735 480.5 2,340 30,408 4,991 2,899 8,168 11,067 482.0 2,340 37,989 5,126 2,930 8,786 11,716 483.5 2,340 45,778 5,261 2,951 8,786 11,737 485.0 2,340 53,788 5,395 2,983 9,068 12,050 486.5 2,340 64,798 5,577 3,021 9,445 12,466 488.5 FSL 2,340 Source: Calculated as part of MSIOA for Kariba North refurbishment and addition of 660 MW. Note: LSL: low supply level; MOL: minimum operating level; FSL: full supply level. 78 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.16. Kariba future HPP ­ characteristics Installed capacity (MW) 2,340 Rated discharge (m /s) 3 2,861 Rated net head (calculated) 92.8 Assumed overall efficiency 0.89 Source: Calculated in this study for Kariba North refurbishment and addition of 660 MW. Itezhi Tezhi (existing and extension) Table 3.17. Itezhi Tezhi Reservoir ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation Storage (million m3) Area (km2) Outlet capacity (m3/s) Elevation (m) Note 612 84 400 1,005.0 699 90 1,500 1,006.0 MOL 1,003 113 2,000 1,009.0 1,377 138 2,600 1,012.0 1,836 167 3,200 1,015.0 2,387 203 3,800 1,018.0 3,291 253 4,200 1,022.0 4,424 314 4,800 1,026.0 6,008 392 5,600 1,030.5 FSL 6,204 404 6,000 1,031.0 Source: Shawinigan Engineering and Hidrotecnica Portuguesa 1990. Note: MOL: minimum operating level; FSL: full supply level. Table 3.18. Itezhi Tezhi reservoir ­ flood rule curve Month Month-end level (m) Month-end volume (million m3) Oct 1,024.3 3,942 Nov 1,023.6 3,744 Dec 1,024.1 3,886 Jan 1,025.4 4,254 Feb 1,026.8 4,706 Mar 1,027.7 5,022 Apr 1,029.6 5,691 May 1,030.5 6,008 Jun 1,030.5 6,008 Jul 1,030.0 5,832 Aug 1,028.0 5,128 Sep 1,026.0 4,424 Source: ZESCO. 79 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.19. Itezhi Tezhi future HPP ­ characteristics Installed capacity (MW) 120 Rated head, Hr (m) 40 Total rated discharge, Qr (m /s) 3 312 Average efficiency 0.89 Friction losses (%) 2 Tailwater level, Qr (m) 986 Gross head (m) 40.8 Reservoir level, Hr (m) 1,026.8 Head loss (m) 0.8 Source: HARZA Engineering Company 1999. Table 3.20. Itezhi Tezhi future HPP ­ tailwater rating Discharge (m3/s) Tailwater level + losses (m) 0 980.8 310 986.8 1,158 990.1 1,575 991.2 2,110 992.4 2,631 993.3 3,309 994.4 4,031 995.4 5,214 996.8 6,172 997.8 Source: HARZA Engineering Company 1999. 80 Beneficial Uses of Water Kafue Flats Table 3.21. Kafue Flats ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation Storage Area Outlet capacity Elevation (million m3) (km2) (m3/s) (m) 15 30 75 976.0 77 114 95 977.0 303 405 200 978.0 989 950 300 979.0 2,143 1,340 440 980.0 4,853 1,710 725 981.8 6,174 1,810 840 982.5 7,563 1,890 975 983.3 9,498 1,975 3,200 984.3 10,887 2,055 4,200 985.0 Source: Shawinigan Engineering and Hidrotecnica Portuguesa 1990. Kafue Gorge Upper (existing) Table 3.22. Kafue Gorge Upper Reservoir ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation Storage Area Outlet capacity Elevation (million m3) (km2) (m3/s) (m) Note 19.5 35 233 973.0 39.8 47 291 973.5 68.9 70 350 974.0 110.6 98 408 974.5 170.4 142 466 975.0 262.5 235 525 975.5 423.1 430 1,166 976.0 709.0 725 2,333 976.5 785.0 805 3,500 976.6 FSL 1177.5 1,175 4,900 977.0 Source: ZRA 2007. Note: FSL: full supply level. 81 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.23. Kafue Gorge Upper Reservoir ­ flood rule curve Month Month-end level (m) Month-end volume (million m3) Oct 975.4 244.1 Nov 975.4 244.1 Dec 975.9 391.0 Jan 976.5 709.0 Feb 977.0 1,177.5 Mar 977.0 1,177.5 Apr 977.0 1,177.5 May 976.5 976.5 Jun 975.9 391.0 Jul 975.4 244.1 Aug 975.4 244.1 Sep 975.4 244.1 Source: ZESCO. Table 3.24. Kafue Gorge Upper HPP ­ characteristics Installed capacity (MW) 990 Headloss (m) 5 Average efficiency 0.89 Penstock capacity (m /s) 3 290 Source: Scott Wilson Piésold 2003b. Table 3.25. Kafue Gorge Upper HPP ­ tailwater rating Discharge Tailwater level + losses (m3/s) (m) 0 584.0 115 584.6 212 585.8 400 587.1 615 588.2 820 589.0 1,590 591.4 Source: Scott Wilson Piésold 2003b. 82 Beneficial Uses of Water Kafue Gorge Lower (projected) Table 3.26. Kafue Gorge Lower Reservoir ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation Storage Area Elevation (million m3) (km2) (m) Note 0 0.26 503.4 5.15 0.42 518.6 10.95 0.55 530.0 MOL 12.93 0.6 533.9 24.01 0.85 549.1 39.12 1.13 564.4 59.08 1.49 579.7 62.84 1.53 582.0 FSL 83.52 1.72 594.9 112.98 2.14 610.2 Source: HARZA Engineering Company 1995; MHW 2006. Note: MOL: minimum operating level; FSL: full supply level. Table 3.27. Kafue Gorge Lower ­ tailwater rating Discharge Tailwater level + losses (m3/s) (m) 0 386.0 88 386.7 177 387.1 265 387.7 420 388.4 500 388.7 1,000 390.1 1,500 391.1 Source: HARZA Engineering Company 1995; MHW 2006. 83 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Cahora Bassa (existing and extension) Table 3.28. Cahora Bassa HPP ­ storage, area, discharge, outlet, elevation and peak power Turbine Spillway 1 Spillway 2 Outlet Storage Area discharge discharge discharge capacity Elevation Peak power (million m3) (km2) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m) Note (MW) 12 680 2,102 9,871 -- 11,973 291 1,686 32 856 2,155 10,284 -- 12,439 295 MOL 1,806 865 900 2,173 10,800 -- 12,973 296 1,835 5,840 1,120 2,234 10,894 -- 13,128 301 1,986 12,060 1,385 2,300 11,366 -- 13,667 306 2,075 19,640 1,650 2,367 11,744 -- 14,111 311 2,075 28,640 1,980 2,435 11,830 -- 14,265 316 2,075 39,320 2,310 2,503 12,262 2 14,766 321 2,075 51,750 2,675 2,565 12,608 272 15,445 326 FSL 2,075 66,010 3,040 2,633 13,504 802 16,940 331 2,075 Sources: Shawinigan Engineering and Hidrotecnica Portuguesa 1990. Peak power estimated by BRLi-NIRAS as part of MSIOA. Note: MOL: minimum operating level; FSL: full supply level. Table 3.29. Cahora Bassa Reservoir ­ upper rule curve Reservoir level Reservoir storage Month (m) (million m3) Oct 326.0 51,733 Nov 326.0 51,733 Dec 323.0 44,072 Jan 320.8 38,867 Feb 321.4 40,253 Mar 324.7 48,332 Apr 328.4 58,346 May 329.0 60,069 Jun 329.0 60,069 Jul 328.0 57,213 Aug 326.0 51,733 Sep 326.0 51,733 Source: HCB. 84 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.30. Cahora Bassa HPP ­ characteristics No. of units\ 5 Generator power (MW) 415 Installed capacity (MW) 2,075 Rated head,Hr (m) 103.5 Rated discharge, Qr (m /s) 3 452 Average efficiency 0.89 Head loss (m) 1.5 Penstock capacity (m /s) 3 2,260 Source: HCB. Table 3.31. Cahora Bassa HPP ­ tailwater rating Discharge Tailwater level + losses (m3/s) (m) -- 194.0 500 198.9 1,000 201.1 2,000 204.3 3,000 206.9 5,000 211.1 8,000 216.1 10,500 221.5 15,000 226.1 22,000 232.0 Source: HCB. 85 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Cahora Bassa with Cahora Bassa North Bank Powerhouse (HCB) Table 3.32. Cahora Bassa with HCB HPP­ storage, area, discharge, outlet, elevation and peak power Turbine Spillway 1 Spillway 2 Outlet Storage Area discharge discharge discharge capacity Elevation Peak power (million m3) (km2) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m) Note (MW) 12 680 3,570 9,871 -- 13,441 291 2,376 32 856 3,661 10,284 -- 13,945 295 MOL 2,545 865 900 3,689 10,800 -- 14,489 296 2,587 5,840 1,120 3,794 10,894 -- 14,688 301 2,799 12,060 1,385 3,907 11,366 -- 15,273 306 2,925 19,640 1,650 4,021 11,744 -- 15,765 311 2,925 28,640 1,980 4,135 11,830 -- 15,965 316 2,925 39,320 2,310 4,249 12,262 2 16,513 321 2,925 51,750 2,675 4,356 12,608 272 17,237 326 FSL 2,925 66,010 3,040 4,472 13,504 802 18,778 331 2,925 Source: Shawinigan Engineering and Hidrotecnica Portuguesa 1990. HCB Peak power estimated by BRLi-NIRAS as part of MSIOA. Note: MOL: minimum operating level; FSL: full supply level. Table 3.33. Cahora Bassa with HCB HPP ­ characteristics Installed capacity (MW) 2,925 Rated head, Hr (m) 103.5 Average efficiency 0.89 Source: HCB. Mphanda Nkuwa (projected) Table 3.34. Mphanda Nkuwa ­ storage, area, outlet and elevation Storage (million m3) Area (km2) Outlet capacity (m3/s) Elevation (m) Note 2,324 96.5 33,200 207 FSL Source: H13 Joint Venture LI-EDF-KP 2002. Note: FSL: full supply level. 86 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.35. Mphanda Nkuwa HPP ­ characteristics Installed capacity (MW) 2,000 Gross head (m) 68.7 Head loss (m) 1.7 Rated head (m) 67 Average efficiency 0.89 Rated flow (m /s)3 2,173 Normal tailwater level ­ 2,200 m3/s (m) 138.3 Tailwater + head loss (m) 140 Source: H13 Joint Venture LI-EDF-KP 2002. Rumakali (projected) Table 3.36. Rumakali HPP ­ storage, area and elevation Storage (million m3) Area (km2) Elevation (m) Note 0 4.1 2,025 MOL 256 13.2 2,055 FSL Source: SwedPower and Norconsult 1998. Note: MOL: minimum operating level; FSL: full supply level. Table 3.37. Rumakali HPP ­ characteristics Installed capacity (MW) 256 No. of units 3 Gross head (m) 1,294.50 % head loss (assumed) 1 Head loss (m) 13 Net head (m) 1,281.50 Maximum discharge (m3/s) 19.05 Average efficiency 0.9 Tailwater level (m) 750 Tailwater level + head loss (m) 763 Mean flow at dam site (m /s) 3 12.2 Drainage area (km ) 2 392 Source: SwedPower and Norconsult 1998. 87 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Songwe I (projected) Table 3.38. Songwe I Upper Reservoir ­ storage, area and elevation Storage (million m3) Area (km2) Elevation (m) Note 0 0.0 1,200 LSL 40 0.8 1,210 100 2.4 1,220 165 5.2 1,230 275 10.6 1,240 460 19.4 1,250 520 30.0 1,255 FSL 770 35.0 1,260 950 45.3 1,265 Source: NORPLAN 2003. Note: LSL: low supply level; FSL: full supply level. Table 3.39. Songwe I Upper Reservoir ­ rule curve Month Storage (%) Reservoir storage (million m3) Oct 65 338 Nov 50 260 Dec 30 156 Jan 0 -- Feb 0 -- Mar 15 78 Apr 80 416 May 90 468 Jun 95 494 Jul 100 520 Aug 100 520 Sep 85 442 Source: NORPLAN 2003. 88 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.40. Songwe I HPP ­ characteristics Installed capacity (MW)--Dept. of Energy Malawi 34 No. of units 3 Efficiency (reservoirs operated for flood control) 0.87 Turbine discharge (m /s) 3 47 High reservoir water level (HRWL) (m) 1,255.0 Low reservoir water level (LRWL) (m) 1,200.0 Tailwater level (m) 1,165.0 Tailwater level + Losses (m) 1,165.4 Rated head--Hr (assumed as Hmax/1.25) 71.7 Hmin/Hr is below turbine operating range of 0.65 0.48 LRWL (m) corrected for turbine operation range 1,212.0 Average unregulated discharge (m /s) 3 27.1 Source: NORPLAN 2003. Songwe II (projected) Table 3.41. Songwe II Middle Reservoir ­ storage, area and outlet Storage (million m3) Area (km2) Elevation (m) Note 0 0.0 1,040 LSL 15 0.3 1,060 40 0.9 1,080 85 2.4 1,100 150 5.0 1,120 300 10.1 1,140 420 16.0 1,150 FSL 600 21.1 1,160 Source: NORPLAN 2003. Note: LSL: low supply level; FSL: full supply level. 89 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.42. Songwe II Middle Reservoir ­ rule curve Month Storage (%) Reservoir storage (million m3) Oct 65 273 Nov 50 210 Dec 30 126 Jan 0 -- Feb 0 -- Mar 15 63 Apr 80 336 May 90 378 Jun 95 399 Jul 100 420 Aug 100 420 Sep 85 357 Source: NORPLAN 2003. Table 3.43. Songwe II HPP ­ characteristics Installed capacity (MW) 157 No. of units 3 Efficiency (reservoirs operated for flood control) 0.87 Turbine discharge (m /s) 3 57 High reservoir water level (HRWL) (m) 1,150 Low reservoir water level (LRWL) (m) 1,050 Tailwater level (m) 825 Tailwater level + losses (m) 827.3 Hr (assumed as Hmax/1.25) 258.2 Hmin/Hr 0.86 Average unregulated discharge (m /s)3 34.2 Source: NORPLAN 2003. 90 Beneficial Uses of Water Songwe III (projected) Table 3.44. Songwe III Lower Reservoir ­ storage, area and elevation Storage (million m3) Area (km2) Elevation (m) Note 0 0.0 700 LSL 10 0.6 710 20 1.1 720 35 1.7 730 55 2.6 740 85 3.5 750 125 4.9 760 185 6.5 770 260 8.5 780 350 11.1 790 FSL Source: NORPLAN 2003. Note: LSL: low supply level; FSL: full supply level. Table 3.45. Songwe III Lower Reservoir ­ rule curve Month Storage (m) Reservoir storage (million m3) Oct 65 228 Nov 50 175 Dec 30 105 Jan 0 0 Feb 0 0 Mar 15 53 Apr 80 280 May 90 315 Jun 95 333 Jul 100 350 Aug 100 350 Sep 85 298 Source: NORPLAN 2003. 91 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.46. Songwe III HPP ­ characteristics Installed capacity (MW) 149 No. of units 3 Efficiency (reservoirs operated for flood control) 0.87 Turbine discharge (m /s) 3 68 High reservoir water level (HRWL) (m) 790 Low reservoir water level (LRWL) (m) 700 Tailwater level (m) 527 Tailwater level + losses (m) 528.7 Hr (assumed as Hmax/1.25) 209 Hmin/Hr 0.82 Average unregulated discharge (m /s)3 39.3 Source: NORPLAN 2003. Lower Fufu (projected) Table 3.47. Lower Fufu HPP ­ characteristics Power plant No. of units 2 Installed capacity 90 Design flow 30 Net head 336 Source: Norconsult 1996. Kholombidzo (projected) Table 3.48. Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa and Liwonde Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa Liwonde Storage Area Outlet capacity Elevation Natural headloss Level (million m3) (km2) (m3/s) (m) (m) (m) 0 28,760 0 471.5 0.40 471.10 20,420 28,760 49 472.21 0.80 471.41 57,520 28,760 196 473.5 1.35 472.15 71,900 28,760 287 474.0 1.48 472.52 86,280 28,760 393 474.5 1.55 472.95 100,660 28,760 512 475.0 1.58 473.42 115,040 28,760 643 475.5 1.58 473.92 129,420 28,760 788 476.0 1.58 474.42 143,800 28,760 944 476.5 1.58 474.92 154,729 28,760 1,071 476.88 1.58 475.30 Source: Norconsult 2003. 92 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.49. Kholombidzo Reservoir and HPP ­ storage, area, outflow, elevation and peak power Kholombidzo Reservoir Storage (million m ) 3 Area (km ) 2 Maximum outflow (m3/s) Elevation (m) Note Peak capacity (MW) 0 0 457.00 0 443 91.9 1,126 471.00 MOL 226 470 93.2 1,268 471.41 227 524 96.7 1,567 472.15 230 595 103.2 1,961 472.95 233 643 108.8 2,229 473.42 234 701 116.7 2,546 473.92 236 766 126.9 2,899 474.42 237 840 140.0 3,288 474.92 239 903 152.1 3,609 475.30 FSL 240 Source: Norconsult 2003. Note: MOL: minimum operating level; FSL: full supply level. Table 3.50. Kholombidzo HPP ­ characteristics Power plant No. of units 4 Installed capacity (MW) 240 Maximum discharge (m /s) 3 372 Gross head (m) 75.3 Net head (m) 72 Nominal TWL (m) 400 Headloss (m) 3.3 TWL + losses (m) 403.3 Source: Norconsult 2003. Table 3.51. Kholombidzo HPP ­ tailwater rating Discharge (m3/s) Level (m) 394.5 6 396.0 72 398.0 281 400.0 365 400.5 465 401.0 716 402.0 1,462 404.0 2,601 406.0 4,219 408.0 Source: Norconsult 2003. 93 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Nkula Falls (existing) Table 3.52. Nkula Falls HPP ­ characteristics Nkula A Nkula B Total Installed capacity (MW) 24 100 124 Rated discharge (m /s) 3 51 195 246 Net head 53.7 58.5 57.6 Average efficiency 0.86 0.86 0.86 Reservoir surface area (km2) 0.4 Source: NIRAS 2003. Tedzani (existing) Table 3.53. Tedzani HPP­ characteristics Power plant I + II III Total Installed capacity (MW) 40 50 90 Rated discharge (m /s) 3 120 156 276 Average efficiency 0.86 0.86 0.86 Net head 39.5 38 38.7 Reservoir surface area (km2) 0.8 Source: NIRAS 2003. Kapichira (existing and extension) Table 3.54. Kapichira HPP ­ characteristics Phase I Phase II Total Plant capacity (MW) 64 64 128 No. of turbines 2 2 4 Turbine discharge (m /s) 3 67 67 134 Gross head (m) 58.04 58.04 58.04 Net head 55.33 55.33 55.33 Head loss (m) 2.71 2.71 2.71 Head loss (%) 5 5 5 Average efficiency 0.88 0.88 0.89 Average headpond level (m) 145.3 145.3 145.3 Average TWL (m) 87.3 87.3 87.3 TWL + losses (m) 90 90 90 Reservoir surface area (km ) 2 2 Source: NIRAS 2003; ESCOM. 94 Beneficial Uses of Water 3.2 irrigaTedagriculTure · Renewing the ability of agricultural research systems to adapt new knowledge and tech- 3.2.1 regionalpoliciesforagricultureand nologies--including biotechnology--to Africa's irrigationdevelopment context and increase output and productivity while conserving the environment. New Partnership for Africa's Development · Promoting mechanisms that reduce the costs (NEPAD) and risks of adopting new technologies. For the period 2002 to 2015, a total investment of some In October 2001, the New Partnership for Africa's $4.6 billion is estimated. Development (NEPAD) was launched as an Africa- led initiative of the African Union to promote Implementing the CAADP involves collaborative self-sustaining economic development. In Africa, preparation of the National Medium-Term Invest- increasing and improving agricultural production ment Programs (NMTIPs) and associated bankable is crucial for addressing hunger, poverty, inequality investment project profiles (BIPPs). Each of the ripar- and economic growth. Hence, it was the primary ian countries in the ZRB has NMTIPs. Table 3.55. lists economic sector addressed in the first NEPAD Ac- agriculture-related projects in the Basin for which tion Program. In June 2002, the African heads of the BIPPs have been accounted for in this analysis. states and governments approved the Compre- In 2005 the World Bank prepared the most re- hensive Africa Agriculture Development Program cent Africa Action Plan (AAP) to provide a results- (CAADP) as a framework for the restoration of oriented framework to support critical policy and agricultural growth, food security, and rural devel- public actions led by African countries to achieve opment in Africa. The program's work falls under well-defined goals, including the Millennium four main pillars, three of which focus on invest- Development Goals. Slow growth in Sub-Saharan ment in interventions: extending the area under Africa is a result of both lack of investments and low sustainable land management and reliable water investment efficiency. Since 1995 the fastest-growing control systems; increasing market access through economies have benefited from higher investment improved rural infrastructure and other trade- rates and have generated higher returns on invest- related interventions; and, increasing food supply ment. The AAP was intended to support drivers of and reducing hunger. The CAADP also pays atten- growth, one of which is productive and sustainable tion to emergencies and disasters requiring food agriculture. In line with the CAADP, the World and agricultural responses or safety nets, which, if Bank's strategy for agriculture in Africa is based ignored, can displace people, undermining develop- ment achievements. The fourth pillar of the CAADP focuses on agricultural research and technological dissemination and adoption to promote long-term productivity and competitiveness. Table 3.55. Agriculture projects with Bankable Improving agricultural productivity in line with Investment Project Profiles in the Zambezi River the fourth pillar, will require: Basin Country Project name · Linking research and extension systems to pro- Malawi Commercialization of High Value Crop ducers more efficiently to increase adoption of the most promising technologies and support Mozambique Small Dam Rehabilitation and Construction Small Scale Irrigation Project II immediate improvement of African production. Namibia Support to Smallholders Irrigation Schemes · Providing the technology delivery systems needed to quickly bring innovations to farmers Zambia Nega Nega Irrigation Scheme and agribusinesses, particularly through the Zimbabwe Rehabilitation of Smallholder Irrigation Schemes use of new information and communication Smallholder Irrigation Development (Mtshabezi and Mazvikadei irrigation schemes) technologies (ICTs). 95 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis on two pillars: first, providing loans and advice to Southern Africa Development Community, countries to help them address domestic barriers to SADC higher productivity; and second, providing analysis and advocacy at the international level to dismantle The first phase of the Regional Strategic Action obstacles to agricultural production and exports. The Plan between 1998 and 2004, created an enabling Bank's strategy calls for increased physical invest- environment for integrated water resource manage- ment in agriculture (especially irrigation), water re- ment (IRWM) in the ZRB. A subsequent strategic sources management, rural roads and infrastructure, action plan was approved in June 2005 by SADC's and research and extension; elimination of policy Integrated Committee of Ministers (ICM) for the discrimination against rural goods, and increased period 2005 and 2010. The agricultural sector has service delivery for rural areas in agriculture and been one of the targets of the new plan, which aimed other sectors (such as education and health); higher to "develop by 2015 water resources infrastructures productivity through the use of more sustainable needed to double land under irrigation in southern agriculture practices; strengthened natural resource Africa." management; and scaled up support to farmers and The SADC Regional Water Policy from 2007 agribusiness through improved market access and addresses water resources management in nine supply chain for development and rural finance. thematic areas where the issue of food security is One of the priorities of the AAP is to "raise included under water for development and poverty agricultural productivity" through: reduction. Food security is further emphasized by the following statements in the policy: · Improved agricultural technology (research, ex- tension, and adoption of improved techniques); · Member countries will promote the attainment · Investment in rural infrastructure through local of regional food security rather than national government and community initiatives; self-sufficiency by developing those areas which · Irrigation and water harvesting; have comparative advantage for rain-fed and · Sustainable land management; irrigated agriculture. · Stronger value chains and access to markets, · Water resources development for irrigation in including input markets; and commercial agriculture should be planned in · Stronger safety nets and greater access to rural coordination with other sectors in the interest finance and risk management. of IWRM. · As a vehicle for promoting reliable food produc- The Mid-Zambezi Agricultural Water Manage- tion and enhancing food security, sustainable ment for Food Security Program originated from irrigated agriculture and aquaculture will be a commitment by the African Development Bank promoted in all member countries with suitable to support the NEPAD initiative and CAAPD. It water and land resources. is one of a several projects in preparation across · Member countries will promote improved till- the SADC region. The proposed program targets age and rainwater-harvesting techniques to Botswana, Zambia, and Zimbabwe and comprises optimize the use of water by rainfed agriculture. three components: addressing irrigation scheme · Member countries will promote affordable and and related infrastructure development as well as sustainable techniques for small-scale irrigation providing support to rain-fed producers. as a measure to increase production of food and The World Bank study "Zambezi River Basin, cash crops in rural areas for sustainable liveli- Sustainable Water Resources Development for Ir- hoods and poverty reduction. rigated Agriculture" (June 2006) aimed to identify · Member countries will promote measures for the potential for a major scaling up of economically increased water use efficiency in agriculture. and environmentally sustainable investment in · Water requirements for livestock--including water resources management for agriculture and both livestock watering and maintenance of rural development in the ZRB. grazing land--shall receive adequate consid- 96 Beneficial Uses of Water eration in water resources allocation and man- 3.2.2 overviewofagriculturalsector agement. Almost 75 percent of land in the Basin is covered The policy stresses that a strategic objective for by forests and bush. Cropped land (mostly rain-fed water for food security is "to attain regional food agriculture) covers 13 percent, and grassland covers security through sustainable irrigated agriculture, approximately eight percent of the land area. The rest rainfed agriculture, aquaculture and livestock pro- is barren or used for infrastructure. An estimated 5.2 duction, through optimal use of both surface and million hectares is cultivated yearly in the Basin. To- groundwater with the ultimate goal of poverty gether, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi account for reduction." These objectives are reiterated in the 85 percent of this area (Euroconsult Mott MacDon- goals of the strategies that have developed from the ald 2008b). The agricultural sector12 is the economic SADC Regional Water Policy: backbone of the ZRB and employs approximately 72 percent of the Basin's labor force. Hence, agriculture · Promote agricultural research and its application is fundamental for the Basin's rural population, who in the context of water use efficiency, climatic constitue ca 70 percent of the total basin population change trends, and temporal climatic variations (table 3.56.) (FAO 2008a). Among the Basin's riparian as the basis for improved productivity. countries, the agricultural sector contributes an aver- · Maximize the benefit of water use throughout age of 24 percent to country GDP, with significant the region through the principles of compara- variation (table 3.57.). tive advantage and promote sharing of benefits. Across the Basin, the varying climatic zones, · Promote the participation of communities and historical and agricultural developments, popula- private sector in the development, improvement, tion densities, and poverty levels results in different and management of irrigated and rainfed agri- types of farming: culture in small- and medium-scale enterprises · Promote construction of multipurpose facilities · Traditional farming largely for home consump- that will benefit irrigation and groundwater tion and trade of any surplus, either for cash or recharge to enhance food security. for services (such as labor). Table 3.56. Rural population active in agriculture in Zambezi riparian countries Population Population Active Active Rural Rural in active in active population in population in population population employment employment agriculture agriculture Country Population (no.) (%) (no.) (%) (no.) (%) Angola 15,941,000 10,008,000 63% 7,403,000 46% 5,218,000 70% Botswana 1,765,000 838,000 47% 817,000 46% 354,000 43% Namibia 12,884,000 10,673,000 83% 6,068,000 47% 4,903,000 81% Malawi 19,792,000 12,281,000 62% 10,312,000 52% 8,250,000 80% Mozambique 2,031,000 1,351,000 67% 832,000 41% 311,000 37% Tanzania 38,329,000 23,956,000 63% 20,224,000 53% 15,802,000 78% Zambia 11,668,000 7,409,000 63% 4,968,000 43% 3,293,000 66% Zimbabwe 13,010,000 8,343,000 64% 6,180,000 48% 3,708,000 60% Zambezi River 29,968,600 21,012,509 70% 13,992,821 47% 10,011,529 72% Basin Source: FAO 2008a, values as of 2005. 12 Agriculture includes forestry, hunting, and fishing, as well as cultivation of crops and livestock production. 97 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.57. Zambezi River Basin's agricultural GDP ($ billion) GDP agricultural National GDP Agriculture GDP Agriculture GDP GDP in ZRB sector in ZRB Country ($ bn) ($ bn) (%) ($ bn) ($ bn) Angola 58.55 6 10% 1.95 0.20 Botswana 11.78 0 0% 0.11 0.00 Namibia 3.55 1 28% 2.83 0.96 Malawi 7.75 2 26% 1.02 0.29 Mozambique 6.74 1 15% 0.37 0.04 Tanzania 16.18 7 43% 0.52 0.24 Zambia 11.36 2 18% 7.37 1.62 Zimbabwe -- -- -- -- -- Zambezi River Basin -- -- 24% 14 3 Source: World Bank 2008a, values for 2007. Estimates for national parts of the basin come from population ratios. · Emerging farming who largely subsist from There is no single database that contains com- their own productivity but whose farming ac- plete and accurate data concerning agriculture tivities produce a marketable surplus of staple and irrigation in the ZRB. Most of the figures and/or industrial or horticultural crops. used in recent studies concerning water resources · Commercial farming who do not rely upon their management in the Basin are drawn from the 1998 own production for subsistence and instead ZACPRO sector studies (Denconsult 1998c), which produce most or all of their crops for sale. also compiled older data and, in most of the cases, national data. In most cases, the irrigation method applied Various sources were used to calculate the will mirror the type of farming, i.e. traditional, figure for the Basin's current irrigation area used emerging, and commercial irrigation. Within the in this study. Rather than reusing general figures traditional and the emerging irrigation sector, many that appear in water resources management stud- farmers are classified as "outgrowers". These farm- ies, the analysis has sought the most accurate data ers typically follow the nucleus estate model, i.e. possible because: growers are located around a commercial scheme and may be supported by management of an es- · Irrigation is by far the main water use in the tate for cultivation, planting material, inputs, and ZRB.13 The accuracy of the data used will deter- transport and in turn exclusively provide their mine the quality of the water resources manage- harvested produce. ment model. The Integrated Water Resources Management · The irrigation sector in the ZRB has recently Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi experienced important changes, including the River Basin (Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2008b) loss of effective irrigation areas in Zimbabwe states that agricultural development is key to and the development of commercial irrigation poverty alleviation and economic growth. This is for sugarcane production in the Kafue River reiterated in the priorities of the riparian countries' subbasin. national development plans and strategic goals of · The main input for the irrigation component development partners and donors (table 3.58.). of the water resources management model is 13 If the evaporation of the reservoirs is not considered to be an abstraction use. 98 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.58. National and regional policy documents for agriculture and irrigation development Angola Review of Agricultural Sector and Food Security Strategy and Investment Priority Setting (July 2004) Towards a Strategy for Agricultural Development in Angola--Issues and Options (March 2005) Plano Director National de Irrigação--Plano Irriga (under preparation) Botswana National Master Plan for Arable Agriculture and Dairy Development (2002) Revised National Policy for Rural Development (2002) National Strategy for Poverty Reduction (2002) Malawi Agricultural and Livestock Development Strategy and Action Plan (1995) National Irrigation Policy and Development Strategy (June 2000) Strategic Plan from July 2006 to July 2010 (July 2006) Mozambique Politicá Agrária e Estratégias de Implementação (1996­97) Plano de Acção para a Redução de Pobreza Absoluta II (PARPA II 2006­09) Visão do Sector Agrário en Moçambique Promoção de Desenvolvimento Agrário II (ProAgri II, 2005­09) National Policy for Irrigation (under preparation) Namibia National Agricultural Policy (1995) Review of the National Agricultural Policy of 1995 (2003) National Development Plan 2 (NDP2 for 2001­06) Vision 2030 Tanzania Rural Development Strategy (2002) Agricultural Sector Development Strategy (2001) National Irrigation Master Plan (2002) National Irrigation Policy (2007) National Water Development Strategy for 2006­15 Zambia Agricultural Commercialization Program (2001) Vision 2030 National Agriculture Policy (2005) National Irrigation Plan (2006) Firth National Development Plan for 2006­10 Zimbabwe Zimbabwe's Agriculture Policy Framework 1995­2010 (1996) Land Reform and Resettlement Reform (2000) Ministry of Water Resources and Infrastructural Development "Five Year Development Plan (July 2007)" Ministry of Water Resources and Infrastructural Development "Ten Year Development Plan (July 2007)" World Bank Africa Action Plan (AAP) NEPAD Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) SADC Regional Water Policy (2006) Regional Water Strategy (2007) Source: This study, 2010. the future potential irrigation water require- 3.2.3 cultivatedareawithintheZambezi ments and abstractions. In the short-term, only riverbasin existing projects will be considered. For most irrigation projects, however, neither feasibility Most of the cultivated land of Malawi, Zambia, and nor prefeasibility studies are available. When Zimbabwe account for 85 percent of the total of the estimating the characteristics of those projects approximately 5.2 million hectares of cultivated involved making a number of assumptions, land in the region (table 3.59.). based on the current irrigation schemes in the In the analysis below, equipped area refers to identified projects' areas. the command area, or irrigable area. The irrigated 99 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.59. Cultivated area in the Zambezi River Basin (hectares) Country Hectares Angola 92,000 Botswana 1,000 Malawi 1,903,000 Mozambique 421,000 Namibia 15,000 Tanzania 251,000 Zambia 1,154,000 Zimbabwe 1,368,000 Zambezi River Basin 5,205,000 Source: World Bank 2006b. cultivated area is that which is cropped. An crops, so irrigation needs are marginal. In winter, equipped area can potentially be used twice a however, irrigation provides the majority of water year, which corresponds to an intensity of two or supply for crop production. Excluding perennial 200 percent. For example, one hectare of irrigated crops, the irrigation areas have a mean cropping wheat in the dry season could be irrigated with intensity of 195 percent because of two cropping complementary irrigation for one hectare of maize seasons. in the wet season. Winter wheat accounts for 50 percent of the Tables 3.60. and 3.61. provide a breakdown irrigated winter crop areas. Finally, some of the of irrigation areas in the ZRB by subbasin and irrigation areas are associated with storage facili- by country, respectively. Only 183,000 hectares ties. This is the case for the irrigation schemes of (3.5 percent) in the ZRB have been identified as the Kafue Flats where storage provided by the equipped areas. At the same time, irrigated areas Itezhi Tezhi reservoir, for irrigation downstream of produce higher yields than those areas without Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, and the man-made irrigation. For example, irrigated cereals produc- Lake Kariba and Lake Cahora Bassa, and for the tion (around 300,000 tons) accounts for around 10 irrigation schemes that withdraw waters from the percent of the total cereal production. Irrigated Zimbabwean tributaries where storage is provided perennial crops account for 56 percent of the total by small reservoirs. equipped area, equivalent to 102,000 hectares. Sugarcane accounts for 76 percent of irrigated 3.2.4 waterabstractionsforexisting perennial crops. irrigationschemes Large parts of the total equipped area can have two productive seasons because of favor- The annual water abstractions for irrigation schemes able climatic conditions: summer (or wet season, in the ZRB total of 3,234 million m3, or 2.5 percent of from November­December to March­April) and the estimated14 130 billion m3 per year available run- winter (or dry season, April­May to September­ off (Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007). Zambia, October). In the summer season, heavy rainfall Zimbabwe, and Malawi respectively account for 15 accounts for the majority of the water supply to percent, 27 percent, and 46 percent of water abstrac- 14 In this rapid assessment, the irrigation abstractions needs are estimated to be around 1.5 million m3. This value was prob- ably underestimated because it was calculated using data from the 1990s (i.e., much less perennial crops irrigation areas taken into account). 100 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.60. Irrigation areas in the Zambezi River Basin (hectares/subbasin) Subbasin Irrigated (ha) Equipped (ha) Dry season (ha) Wet season (ha) Perennial (ha) Kabompo (13) 595 350 245 245 105 Upper Zambezi (12) 3,250 2,500 1,750 750 750 Lungúe Bungo (11) 1,250 1,000 750 250 250 Luanginga (10) 1,000 750 500 250 250 Barotse (9) 340 200 140 140 60 Cuando/Chobe (8) 765 620 495 145 125 Kafue (7) 46,528 40,158 6,370 6,370 33,788 Kariba (6) 44,531 28,186 16,325 16,345 11,861 Luangwa (5) 17,794 10,100 7,935 7,694 2,165 Mupata (4) 21,790 14,200 7,589 7,590 6,611 Shire River - Lake Malawi/ 60,960 42,416 18,606 18,544 23,810 Niassa/Nyasa (3) Tete (2) 52,572 35,159 19,411 17,413 15,748 Zambezi Delta (1) 7,664 6,998 666 666 6,332 Total 259,039 182,637 80,782 76,402 101,855 Table 3.61. Irrigation areas in the Zambezi River Basin (hectares/country) Country Irrigated (ha) Equipped (ha) Dry season (ha) Wet season (ha) Perennial (ha) Angola 6,125 4,750 3,375 1,375 1,375 Botswana 0 0 0 0 0 Malawi 37,820 30,816 7,066 7,004 23,750 Mozambique 8,436 7,413 1,023 1,023 6,390 Namibia 140 120 120 20 0 Tanzania 23,140 11,600 11,540 11,540 60 Zambia 74,661 56,452 18,448 18,209 38,004 Zimbabwe 108,717 71,486 39,210 37,231 32,276 Total 259,039 182,637 80,782 76,402 101,855 tion (table 3.64.). The majority of water consump- 3.2.5 recessionirrigation tion for irrigation takes place in the subbasins of Tete, Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, In the Zambezi River Basin, recession or natural Mupata, Kariba and Kafue. Those areas also have submersion irrigation15 accounts for a significant notably large commercial agriculture and therefore part of irrigation, more than 100,000 hectares (table have the greatest potential for an increase in irriga- 3.66.). This is particularly true for the wetlands of tion in the future. The winter season is characterized the ZRB. They are extensive, particularly in the up- by the highest needs for water abstraction. per reaches, and provide many rural people with 15 As the floodwater recedes from the river banks, fertile land can be farmed. 101 Table 3.62. Irrigated crops in the Zambezi River Basin by subbasin (hectares) Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops TOTAL TOTAL Winter Winter Winter Veg- Winter Sugar- Soy- Sor- Subbasin wheat rice maize etables Beans cotton Other cane Tea Coffee Citrus Banana Pasture Maize beans ghum Cotton Tobacco Rice Irrigated Equipped Kabompo (13) 136 0 0 64 0 0 45 0 0 0 23 0 82 88 0 0 0 48 0 595 350 Upper Zambezi 0 1,000 0 750 0 0 0 0 0 0 750 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,250 2,500 (12) Lungúe Bungo 0 500 0 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,250 1,000 (11) Luanginga (10) 0 250 0 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 250 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,000 750 Barotse (9) 78 0 0 36 0 0 26 0 0 0 13 0 47 51 0 0 0 27 0 340 200 Cuando/Chobe 0 350 0 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 765 620 (8) Kafue (7) 6,370 0 0 0 0 0 0 33,068 0 596 0 124 0 0 5,868 0 0 502 0 46,528 40,158 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Kariba (6) 10,703 0 0 2,294 0 500 2,828 6,434 757 1,137 1,023 25 2,485 3,250 2,363 0 3,590 2,020 0 44,531 28,186 102 Luangwa (5) 4,689 0 0 2,525 241 0 480 0 0 0 1,563 0 602 3,048 0 0 0 1,641 0 17,794 10,100 Mupata (4) 5,240 0 0 1,072 0 0 1,277 3,618 426 1,069 646 0 852 1,311 1,329 0 1,737 864 0 21,790 14,200 Shire River and 13,450 0 95 2,443 62 0 3,361 9,523 1,121 1,682 1,179 0 2,243 3,308 1,526 13 4,610 2,152 0 52,572 35,159 Lake Malawi/Ni- assa/Nyasa (3) Tete (2) 0 13,700 3,579 1,327 0 0 0 19,750 4,060 0 0 0 0 1,790 645 286 859 0 13,637 60,960 42,416 Zambezi Delta (1) 0 0 0 666 0 0 0 5,666 0 0 666 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,664 6,998 Total 40,666 15,800 3,674 11,822 303 500 8,017 78,059 6,364 4,484 6,488 149 6,311 12,846 11,731 299 10,796 7,254 13,637 259,039 182,637 % of winter crops 50% 20% 5% 15% 0% 1% 10% % of summer 15% 10% 17% 15% 0% 14% 9% 18% crops % of perennial 77% 6% 4% 6% 0% 6% crops Note: One hectares of vegetables appears in the "dry season" columns" even if two seasons of vegetables may be cultivated. Table 3.63. Irrigated crops in the Zambezi River Basin by country (hectares) Dry season crops Perennial crops Wet season crops TOTAL TOTAL Winter Winter Winter Veg- Winter Sugar- Soy- Sor- Country Wheat Rice Maize etables Beans Cotton Other cane Tea Coffee Citrus Banana Pasture Maize beans ghum Cotton Tobacco Rice Irrigated Equipped Angola 0 2,000 0 1,375 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,375 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,125 4,750 Botswana 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Malawi 0 3,891 2,425 750 0 0 0 19,750 4,000 0 0 0 0 1,213 437 194 582 0 3,828 37,820 30,816 103 Mozambique 0 0 95 866 62 0 0 5,666 0 0 724 0 0 79 28 13 37 0 0 8,436 7,413 Namibia 0 100 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 140 120 Tanzania 0 9,809 1,154 577 0 0 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 577 208 92 277 0 9,809 23,140 11,600 Zambia 13,018 0 0 3,599 241 500 1,090 33,068 0 1,026 2,085 124 1,701 4,323 5,868 0 500 2,829 0 74,661 56,452 Zimbabwe 27,648 0 0 4,635 0 0 6,927 19,575 2,304 3,458 2,304 25 4,610 6,654 5,190 0 9,400 4,425 0 108,717 71,486 Total 40,666 15,800 3,674 11,822 303 500 8,017 78,059 6,364 4,484 6,488 149 6,311 12,846 11,731 299 10,796 7,254 13,637 259,039 182,637 Source: MSIOA 2009. Note: One hectare of vegetables appears in the "dry season" columns" even if two seasons of vegetables may be cultivated. Beneficial Uses of Water The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.64. Annual water abstraction requirements for irrigation in the Zambezi River Basin by subbasin (1,000 m3) Subbasin Water abstractions Percent Kabompo (13) 4,817 0% Upper Zambezi (12) 37,623 1% Lungúe Bungo (11) 15,674 0% Luanginga (10) 14,203 0% Barotse (9) 3,491 0% Cuando/Chobe (8) 10,139 0% Kafue (7) 626,021 19% Kariba (6) 649,154 20% Luangwa (5) 120,498 4% Mupata (4) 308,562 10% Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (3) 648,649 20% Tete (2) 669,032 21% Zambezi Delta (1) 126,973 4% Total 3,234,836 100% Table 3.65. Annual water abstraction requirements for irrigation in the Zambezi River Basin by country (1,000 m3) Country Water abstractions Percentage of total Angola 75,677 2% Botswana 0 0% Malawi 494,583 15% Mozambique 133,676 4% Namibia 1,961 0% Tanzania 154,065 5% Zambia 879,254 27% Zimbabwe 1,495,619 46% Total 3,234,836 100% Table 3.66. Main recession irrigation areas in the Zambezi River Basin (hectares) Name of the floodplain Subbasin River Country Floodplain area (ha) Recession area (ha) Barotse Floodplain 9 Zambezi Zambia 900,000 28,000 Caprivi-Chobe Lake Liambezi floodplain 8 Cuando/Chobe Namibia, Botswana 220,000 9,000 Kaufe Flats 7 Kafue Zambia 650,000 13,000 Luangwa Valley Floodplain 5 Luangwa Zambia 1,080,000 17,000 Lower Shire Floodplain 3 Shire Malawi 1,510,000 21,000 Zambezi Delta Floodplain 1 Zambezi Mozambique 1,940,000 25,000 Total 6,300,000 113,000 104 Beneficial Uses of Water 3.2.7 agriculturalproductiontrends Figure 3.1. Monthly water abstraction requirements in the Zambezi River Basin (m3/s) Agriculture is the economic backbone of the region and continues be a vital part of each country's econ- 600,000 omy. Moreover, agriculture contributes significantly 500,000 to direct exports. In addition, the agro-processing 400,000 and manufacturing industries depend heavily on 300,000 farming input and contribute significantly to ex- 200,000 ports. Though the manufacturing and service sectors 100,000 are comparatively weak in the Basin, expanding 0 OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP the production of agricultural commodities for processing and manufacturing industries can have significant multiplier effect. This stimulates growth staple crops, fish, construction materials, and more. in other services, economic growth and if effective, Yet little is known about the biodiversity of those desired poverty reduction.16 Agriculture accounts for wetlands and the amount of natural resources avail- a significant part of GDP growth in many countries, able. Even estimates of average size are often only for example, 50 percent in Zimbabwe, 40 percent in very roughly approximated. Tanzania, and 20 percent in Mozambique. The increase in crop production in the ZRB 3.2.6 estimatedequippedarea­Zacpro6 demonstrates the strategic importance of agricul- sectorstudyandMsioa tural development. Cereal production has increased during the past decade in all riparian countries, Despite the limited data available, ZACPRO 6 carried except for Zimbabwe (figure 3.2.). In the early out a systematic analysis of land use in the ZRB in 1990s, for example, Zambia produced about 30,000 the mid-1990s (Denconsult 1998b). Their estimates tons of wheat/year and imported about 120,000 indicated that in 1995 the equipped irrigation area tons. Current production is about 160,000 tons was approximately 171,551 hectares (about 3.6 per- per year, compared with 40,000 tons for imports. cent of cultivated area). Based on the estimates done Most of Zambia's wheat is grown with irrigation as part of the MSIOA, it appears that irrigation areas using center-pivots techniques. The main drivers have increased slightly in the riparian countries apart for the increase in production have been attractive from a recent decrease in Zimbabwe (table 3.67.). market prices and electrification of farming blocks. Table 3.67. Comparison of equipped irrigation areas (MSIOA and ZACPRO 1998 studies) Equipped area per country (ha) MSIOA ZACPRO 6 Sector study (ha) Difference Angola 4,750 975 3,775 Botswana 0 661 ­661 Malawi 30,816 36,500 ­5,684 Mozambique 7,413 4,630 2,783 Namibia 120 820 ­700 Tanzania 11,600 150 11,450 Zambia 56,452 42,335 14,117 Zimbabwe 71,486 85,550 ­14,064 Total 182,637 171,621 11,016 16 As stated in World Bank 2006d and the figures are 2000­2004 data from World Bank 2008e. 105 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis ZRB], 2010). There is therefore room for irrigation Figure 3.2. Production of cereals by country (tons) extension, given the development of appropriate 7,000,000 regulation. Several levels of irrigation development 6,000,000 are modeled in the MSIOA Study. Some stretches 5,000,000 of the Zambezi River and its tributaries are already 4,000,000 precisely regulated, including: the lower Zambezi 3,000,000 2,000,000 (downstream Kariba and Cahora Bassa reservoirs); 1,000,000 the Shire River (downstream Lake Malawi/Niassa/ 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Nyasa); the Kafue River (downstream Itezhi Tezhi Reservoir); and the Zimbabwean tributaries (with Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique numerous small regulation reservoirs for irrigation). Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Southern Africa is known for recurrent drought Source: FAO 2008b. conditions that span the entire region causing fam- ine and mortality. The most notorious droughts in recent history hit the region in 1991­92 and 1994­95. Figure 3.3. Production of sugar cane by country More recent droughts occurred in Zambia in 2002 (tons) and in Tanzania in 2006. These droughts affected water supplies in both rural and urban areas (urban 6,000,000 5,000,000 centers were subjected to severe water rationing) 4,000,000 and reduced crop harvests. This is especially true 3,000,000 for rainfed agricultural areas. Sensitivity to the 2,000,000 detrimental impacts of droughts can be significantly 1,000,000 reduced by developing and rehabilitating appropri- 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ate irrigation systems, often in combination with regulation reservoirs. Angola Malawi Mozambique Most parts of the Zambezi River Basin rely Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe heavily on food imports. Based on the MSIOA Source: FAO 2008b. assessment, each subbasin, apart from Mupata, would remain cereal deficient if there was no access to imports, even if all identified irrigation projects Sugarcane production has also increased (figure were implemented (table 3.68.). The overall food 3.3.). Zambia's main producer of sugar, the Zambia security is under control in the Basin, but remains Sugar Company, has driven the country's sugar a problem certain geographic areas. In Zimbabwe, production from 22,000 tons in 1962 to 250,000 tons for example, food insecurity threatens certain parts in 2006, all of which is irrigated entirely. Zambia of the country; and in Malawi, more than 500,000 exports over half of total production: 80,000 tons to people are at risk of food insecurity (USAID 2008). the Democratic Republic of Congo, 30,000 tons to countries in the Great Lakes region, and 20,000 tons 3.2.9 populationdensityinirrigatedareas to the Southern Africa Customs Union.17 The per capita ratio of arable and permanently 3.2.8 wateravailabilityandregulation cropped land area is low in the in ZRB's rural areas. Most rural households average only one to two per Annual water abstractions for irrigation schemes hectares, with an average of 0.5 hectares per capita represent only 2.5 percent of the estimated available among those active in agriculture. Only in Angola, runoff over the ZRB (Source: MSIOA [HEC3 simu- Botswana, Namibia and Zambia is the per capita lation without large artificial regulation over the ratio above 0.5 hectares. 17 Stephens T., 2008. 106 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.68. Cereal import requirement (1,000 tons) Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Total % Kabompo (13) 1 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 31 2.00% Upper Zambezi 25 0 0 0 0 0 ­8 0 17 1.10% (12) Lungúe Bungo 13 0 0 0 0 0 ­9 0 4 0.30% (11) Luanginga (10) 8 0 0 0 0 0 ­4 0 4 0.30% Barotse (9) 1 0 0 0 7 0 ­2 0 6 0.40% Cuando/Chobe 16 1 0 0 1 0 8 0 26 1.70% (8) Kafue (7) 0 0 0 0 0 0 347 0 347 22.30% Kariba (6) 0 ­51 0 0 ­11 0 6 320 264 17.00% Luangwa (5) 0 0 6 1 0 0 19 0 26 1.70% Mupata (4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 ­10 ­62 ­72 ­4.60% Shire River and Lake Malawi/ 0 0 27 140 0 0 25 ­60 132 8.50% Niassa/Nyasa (3) Tete (2) 0 0 540 81 0 138 1 0 760 48.90% Zambezi Delta (1) 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0.50% Total 64 ­50 573 230 ­3 138 403 198 1553 100.00% % 4.10% ­3.20% 36.90% 14.80% ­0.20% 8.90% 25.90% 12.70% 100.00% Note: The figures (Denconsult 1998b) need updating, especially in Zambia and Malawi due to recent agricultural growth (through primarily maize and wheat). The per capita ratio of equipped irrigated land is extremely low--less than 0.02 hectares/capita among Table 3.69. Maize and paddy rice yields those active in agriculture. Irrigation is therefore often by country in the Zambezi River Basin confined to the equivalent of a household garden, (tons/hectare) except near wetlands or seasonally flooded wetlands. Country Maize Rice, paddy Low irrigation development leads to low agricultural Angola 0.5 0.7 yields and increases the pressure on the existing wet- Botswana 0.2 0.0 lands (especially dambos), which are overexploited Malawi 2.0 1.7 and subject to conflicts. The absence of adequate secure land­tenure arrangements inhibits long-term Mozambique 1.0 1.0 investments for commercial farming, undermined Namibia 2.2 0.0 further by lack of access to credit as banks prefer to Tanzania 1.1 1.9 lend money against collateral such as title deeds. Zambia 1.6 1.3 National agricultural yields are very low across Zimbabwe 0.7 2.4 the Basin, even if the irrigation areas are taken into Source: FAO 2008b, values from 2007. account. The average cereal yield is estimated to be one ton per hectare compared to the irrigation standard of around five tons per hectare (FAO, The low per capita levels of cultivated land table 3.69.). and the associated low yields is directly related to 107 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis food insecurity and the reliance on food imports Nevertheless, Zambia's sugar production is about throughout the ZRB. 50 percent more expensive than Brazil's (table 3.70., Kafue). 3.2.10 commerciallyviableagriculture­ thecaseofsugar 3.2.11 highirrigationpotential The cheapest country for producing sugar is Brazil. The average yield of cereal in the ZRB is around This is primarily due to favorable economies of one ton per hectare, compared to a potential irri- scale, low input costs and producing being entirely gated yield of five to eight tons per hectare. There rainfed. After Brazil follows Zimbabwe, Malawi, is tremendous potential for increased agricultural Swaziland, Sudan, and Zambia in terms of cost. production given the availability of water for timely Table 3.70. Irrigation ­ strengths and challenges Subbasin Strengths Challenges Kabompo Water and land availability. Water access: irrigation is very underdeveloped. (13) Very low crop yields. Geographically isolated. Upper Zambezi Water and land availability. Water access: irrigation is very underdeveloped. (12) Very low crop yields. Geographically isolated. Lungúe Bungo Water and land availability. Water access: irrigation is very underdeveloped. 11) Very low crop yields. Geographically isolated. Luanginga Water and land availability. Water access: irrigation is very underdeveloped. (10) Very low crop yields. Geographically isolated. Barotse Recession irrigation possible in the Barotse Irrigation is very under-developed. (9) Floodplain. Geographically isolated. Cuando/Chobe Recession irrigation possible in the Linyati Irrigation is very under-developed. (8) Floodplain. Very low crop yields. Geographically isolated. Kafue Recession irrigation possible in the Kafue Flats. Cash crop production lacks competitiveness (for example, in the case of sugar (7) production compared to Brazil). Water regulation from Itezhi Tezhi reservoir. Highly dependent on cereal imports. Availability of know-how, good irrigation performance, and infrastructure, especially for Numerous electrical shortages and diminishing availability of irrigable land. sugarcane schemes. The equipped irrigation area is relatively important in this subbasin and has increased significantly during the last 10 years. Large sugarcane exporter. Continued on next page 108 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.70. Irrigation ­ strengths and challenges (continued) (continued) Subbasin Strengths Challenges Kariba Increased agricultural production in Zambia Agricultural production in Zimbabwe has decreased during the last 10 years, and (6) (irrigation development) the country faces food insecurity. Availability of know-how, good irrigation The irrigation area in Zimbabwe has decreased during the last 10 years because performance, and infrastructure, especially for of lack of maintenance. Zimbabwe tributaries. High sensitivity to droughts in the southern parts of the Zambezi River Basin. Low level of cultivated/irrigated land per person. Luangwa (5) Recession irrigation possible in the Luangwa Irrigation would require regulation. valley. Mupata Water regulation from Kariba reservoir. Agricultural production in Zimbabwe has decreased during the last 10 years, and (4) the country faces food insecurity. Availability of know-how, good irrigation performance, and infrastructure, especially for The irrigation area in Zimbabwe has decreased during the last 10 years because Zimbabwe tributaries. of lack of maintenance. Water regulation from small dams in Zimbabwe. Self sufficient in cereal production. Shire River and Recession irrigation possible in the Shire River Very low level of cultivated/irrigated land per capita. Lake Malawi/ Floodplain. High sensitivity to flood in the Shire River valley. Niassa/Nyasa Water regulation from Lake Malawi/Niassa/ (3) Nyasa. More than 80% of the active population is engaged in agriculture. Cereal production has more than doubled over the last three years. The summer season crops do not generally require supplementary irrigation because of the natural rain irrigation, and the winter crop supplementary irrigation requirements are the lowest in the basin. Higher yields for rainfed agriculture than else- where in the Zambezi River Basin. Tete Water regulation from Kariba and Cahora Bassa Agricultural production in Zimbabwe has decreased during the last 10 years and (2) reservoirs. the country is facing food insecurity. Availability of know-how, good irrigation The irrigation area in Zimbabwe has decreased during the last 10 years because performance, and infrastructure, especially for of lack of maintenance. Zimbabwe tributaries. High sensitivity to droughts in the southern parts of the Zambezi River Basin. Around 80% of the active population is active in Low level of cultivated/irrigated land per person. agriculture. High sensitivity to flood in Mozambique (notably for the floodplain at the confluence of the Zambezi and the Shire rivers). Zambezi Delta Recession irrigation possible in the Zambezi Frequency and intensity of floods have reduced drastically compared to pre- (1) Delta floodplain. regulation conditions from the Cahora Bassa reservoir. Around 80% of the active population is engaged Low level of cultivated/irrigated land per capita. in agriculture. Regulation of Cahora Bassa Dam permits devel- opment of irrigated agriculture in dry season. 109 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis irrigation and access to modern control inputs for Green schemes ­ commercial farmers plus farmers. Improved irrigation practices will also outgrowers increase productivity of summer crops such as summer maize and soybean during the wet season. The objective of green schemes is to link new irriga- Furthermore, irrigation will allow perennial crops tion farmers with a commercial enterprise to encour- such as sugarcane, and winter crops such as winter age diversified production of high value crops. They wheat, to be cultivated. The profitability of irrigated have already developed in some areas of the ZRB (for crops and the availability of necessary input enhance example, sugar production in the Kafue subbasin). the region's high irrigation potential. The commercial operator ensures quality, supplies market links, and provides substantial private capi- tal to co-finance national development objectives. In Commodity prices general, half of the scheme areas engage landless In recent years, agricultural commodity prices have farmers on three hectare plots on the basis of bank- increased to unforeseen levels (figure 3.4.). The in- able leaseholds (settlers have to repay the in-field crease was spurred by demand for biofuels (such as equipment) and the other half of the scheme area is the replacement of staple crops with biodiesel and leased to a commercial operator who shall develop the use of staple crops such as maize as a source of a farm irrigation system, provide technical advice ethanol) and increased demand for food from fast during the planting season, and support the small- growing economies in Asia. The high agricultural holders in marketing their crops. The operator must prices may stabilize at a high level and combined also finance the necessary buildings, such as storage with reduced food reserves, regional food security and offices. The leasehold duration and financial in the ZRB is undermined and increases the need contribution of the commercial operator and small- for higher production from improved and expanded scale farmers are reviewed regularly and the experi- use of water for irrigation. ence is applied to new projects under construction. Figure 3.4. Price volatility of select agricultural commodities (2000­07) 400 Sugar 350 Wheat 300 250 Soybean Banana Maize Groundnut 200 Beef 150 Cotton 100 US Dollar 50 Co ee Rice 0 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Oct-03 Jan-04 Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Jan-00 Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2008b, based on World Bank Commodity Prices and inflation data. 110 Beneficial Uses of Water Market prospects for irrigation growth and jatropha. In addition, the development of biofuels could promote import substitution. · Wakefield and Riddell (2005) analyzed the market prospects of the main crop groups in Table 3.71 outlines some of the challenges to Sub-Saharan and southern Africa. They con- irrigation by subbasin. cluded that among cereal staple crops, rice has the largest potential to drive irrigation growth, 3.2.12 identifiedirrigationprojects particularly with the large market demand in South Africa. Wheat demand is also forecasted Many irrigation projects are underway in the ZRB to increase substantially and when combined (tables 3.72. and 3.73.). As part of the MSIOA Study, with other crops could drive irrigation devel- irrigation projects were listed, compiled and ana- opment. lyzed from bibliographical sources and from meet- · Any growth in sugar production that depends ings with stakeholders in the riparian countries. on irrigation will rely on private investment. The list included approximately 100 projects Private investors have created niche markets for and/or programs18 which are described in more horticulture and fruit crops through providing detail in volume 4. Combined, these 100 proj- possible out-grower or contract farming op- ects represent a potential increase of more than portunities. But demand for most horticulture 336,000 additional hectares of equipped area. The and fruit crops will continue to be driven by total equipped area will therefore reach around domestic demand and cross-border trade op- 520,000 hectares. portunities. While they will continue to have The additional irrigated area (that is, the sum an important place in irrigated cropping pat- of winter, summer, and perennial irrigated area) terns, they are not expected to drive irrigation is 514,000 hectares. That figure includes 140,000 growth at rates beyond population and eco- hectares of additional irrigated perennial crops or nomic growth. around 42 percent of the total equipped area. · Other than fibers, products such as coffee, tea, Without the perennial crops, the projected irri- and tobacco are do not have significant impact gation areas have a mean cropping intensity of 195 on irrigation growth. Yet the potential for in- percent. Winter wheat represents 38 percent of the creased exports of commodities such as cotton projected irrigated winter crop areas. can be important driving force for irrigation development. · Livestock output generally has a higher farm- 3.3 weTlands gate value than cereal grains and is projected to grow more rapidly than crop output. Even 3.3.1 directandindirectuse though livestock production currently depends mainly on grazing, high growth in livestock Direct and indirect value includes the consumptive output could be a driver for increased produc- uses of riverine natural resources, such as fish and tion of irrigated feed crops, such as feed barley, trees, by rural communities with strong livelihood maize, alfalfa, and other green fodder crops. links with the river. Commercial uses of the ecosys- · There is increasing interest in growing biofuels tem services, other than non-consumptive activities in the Zambezi River Basin among both farm- such as tourism, and the benefits of multiplier effects ers and governments. The crops that are being have not been included in the evaluation. considered include maize, sugar, cassava, sun- For the Zambezi River Basin, some of the most flower, groundnuts, sweet sorghum, oil palm, common direct values reported are: 18 One identified program is sometimes an agglomeration of many smaller neighbour identified projects. For instance: "Reha- bilitation/optimization of the use of reservoirs in the Luenya subbasin in Zimbabwe" is considered as 1 program whereas it may deal with many different schemes. 111 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.71. Irrigation sector ­ challenges Identified projects Subbasin (ha) Challenges Potential difficulty for marketing. Kabompo (13) 6,300 Need for regulation to develop irrigation with potential impacts on wetlands. Potential difficulty for marketing. Upper Zambezi (12) 5,000 Need for regulation to develop irrigation with potential impacts on wetlands. Potential difficulty for marketing. Lungúe Bungo (11) 500 Need for regulation to develop irrigation with potential impacts on wetlands. Potential difficulty for marketing. Luanginga (10) 5,000 Need for regulation to develop irrigation with potential impacts on wetlands. Potential difficulty for marketing. Barotse (9) 7,000 Need for regulation to develop irrigation with potential impacts on wetlands. Land tenure issues. Impacts on wetlands, wildlife and tourism. Cuando/Chobe (8) 300 Land tenure issues. Potential conflicts with other uses. Kafue (7) 13,600 Shortage of energy to develop irrigation. Kariba (6) 120,000 Land tenure issues. Luangwa (5) 6,000 Need for regulation to develop irrigation with potential impacts on wetlands. Mupata (4) 6,000 Need for regulation to develop irrigation with potential impacts on wetlands. Shire River - Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (3) 60,000 Risk of flood. Need for regulation to develop irrigation with potential impacts on wetlands. Tete (2) 30,000 Potential difficulty for marketing. Potential conflicts with other uses. Zambezi Delta (1) 77,000 Risk of flood. Note: see volume 4 for more details about the identified projects. · Floodplain grazing areas for cattle; vegetation benefits livestock grazing and floodplain · Floodplain recession agriculture; agriculture. · Fish as a nutritional resource; The Zambezi River system also provides pri- · Wild animals and birds as nutritional resources; mary indirect values (not included in the direct-use · Floodplain reeds, papyrus, and grasses; pathway), such as: · Floodplain palm trees and mangroves; · Wild plants for food, cooking, and medicine; and · Flood attenuation and flood control; · Clay. · Groundwater recharge and water supply; · Retention of fine sediments; River ecosystems provide many regulatory · Nutrient cycling; functions and services with far reaching benefits. · Shoreline protection; For example, floodplains provide flood storage and · Wildlife habitat, breeding, and nursery grounds; maintain the water supply in dry months; and, the · Microclimate regulation; and maintenance of soil moisture levels and floodplain · Carbon sequestration and storage. 112 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.72. Identified projects (additional irrigation) areas in the Zambezi River Basin (ha/subbasin) Subbasin Irrigated Increase (%) Equipped Increase (%) Kabompo (13) 10,719 1,802% 6,300 1,800% Upper Zambezi (12) 5,000 154% 5,000 200% Lungúe Bungo (11) 625 50% 500 50% Luanginga (10) 5,000 500% 5,000 667% Barotse (9) 12,413 3,651% 7,008 3,504% Cuando/Chobe (8) 450 59% 300 48% Kafue (7) 20,520 44% 13,610 34% Kariba (6) 184,388 414% 119,592 424% Luangwa (5) 11,063 62% 6,130 61% Mupata (4) 8,566 39% 5,860 41% Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (3) 101,166 166% 59,511 140% Tete (2) 55,621 106% 30,336 86% Zambezi Delta (1) 99,110 1,293% 77,055 1,101% Total 514,641 199% 336,202 184% Table 3.73. Identified projects (additional irrigation) areas in the Zambezi River Basin (ha/country) Country Irrigated Increase (%) Equipped Increase (%) Angola 10,625 173% 10,500 221% Botswana 20,300 -- 13,800 -- Malawi 78,026 206% 47,911 155% Mozambique 137,410 1629% 96,205 1298% Namibia 450 321% 300 250% Tanzania 23,140 100% 11,600 100% Zambia 61,259 82% 37,422 66% Zimbabwe 183,431 169% 118,464 166% Total 514,641 199% 336,202 184% In addition, the above ecosystem services pro- upon them, in both material and non-material tect and mitigate physical damages from extreme terms. hyrdoclimatic events. Although these direct and In rural areas in developing countries, riv- indirect values are recognized, it is very difficult ers provide food, water, a navigation system for to economically assess their true value in mon- movement and interaction, construction material, etary terms. This is especially true for the indirect firewood, and much more. The full value of a com- values of wetlands. Assessing ecosystem services plete river system for all its users has never been becomes even more complex and undeniably more comprehensively ascertained. Seeking a much more important when trying to estimate their values for complete understanding of ecosystem services and communities or societies whose fortitude depends their values to subsistence users have, until recently, 113 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis typically been neglected in water resource manage- · Dambos, which are found throughout the basin; ment and development plans. and People live along the full length of the network of · Fringe, which are found at Kariba, Cahora waterways that make up the Zambezi River system, Bassa, and Itezhi Tezhi reservoirs. and millions of people depend on its natural resources at various levels. The geographic corridor where most Given a dearth of information and research of of the population at risk (PAR) live is yet undefined these areas, six significant wetlands along the sys- in the ZRB. In addition, for most of the network tem that may be affected by future water resources length, there is limited research and understanding developments are used to provide insights into the of the complex nature of the relationships between nature, use, and value of wetland resources: the Zambezi River's ecosystems and the communities that live with and depend upon its resources. · The Barotse Floodplain; · The Eastern Chobe-Caprivi Floodplain; 3.3.2 TypesofwetlandsintheZambezi · The Kafue Wetlands; riverbasin · The Luangwa Wetlands (Lunsemfwa); · The Lower Shire Wetlands; and Wetlands may be defined as those areas where an · The Zambezi Delta. excess of water is the dominant factor determining the nature of soil development and the types of For each of these six areas, major relevant docu- animal and plant communities living at the soil sur- ments have been reviewed to summarize the river's face. By definition, these areas--including riverine resources, links between resources and river flow floodplains, papyrus swamps, marshes, mangrove and sediment regimes, use of resources by people, swamps, and estuaries--would be significantly al- and the value of the resources. Turpie and others tered by a change in their flow and/or inundation (1999) is the most detailed document in the above regime. In the Zambezi River system, the principal respect, and is quoted extensively for the Barotse, types of wetlands are (table 3.74.): Chobe-Caprivi, Lower Shire and Delta wetland areas with respect to the following aspects: · Riverine, which includes all floodplains along the river system, such as Barotse, Kafue, and · concept of value; Luangwa; · types of economic value of wetlands; Table 3.74. Major wetlands and subsistence use of the Zambezi River Basin Wetland Subsistence use Conservation status Kafue Flats Fishery, grazing, wildlife, limited agriculture Partly protected Lukanga Fishery, grazing, transport Unprotected Barotse Floodplain Fishery, grazing, wildlife, limited agriculture Partly protected Liuwa Floodplain n/a n/a Linyanti-Chobe Fishery, tourism, no subsistence use Almost all protected Cuando n/a n/a Elephant Marsh Fishery, grazing, agriculture Unprotected Luangwa n/a n/a Busanga Unexploited wildlife refuge Completely protected Luena n/a n/a Source: Seyam and others 2001. n/a = No data available. 114 Beneficial Uses of Water · economic valuation techniques; · applicability of the techniques for wetlands and Table 3.76. Approximate extent of different habitat developing countries; types within the Barotse Floodplain · issues of scale, time and discounting in calculat- Habitat type Percent coverage Area (ha) ing present value; and Palm savanna 2 11,000 · differences between wetland area and social Floodplain grassland 40 220,000 impact area. Wet grass 40 220,000 The estimated values recorded in the work Tur- Reeds and sedges 10 55,000 pie and others (1999) need updating. Their analysis, River channel 8 44,000 however, still indicates types and range of resources Total 100 550,000 that the wetlands provide, and also what the value Source: Turpie and others 1999. is of a particular use or resource is in comparison to other derived from the wetlands. In terms of direct subsistence use from riverine wetlands, Seyam and The Barotse Floodplain supports the three ac- others (2001) emphasize the importance of fishery, tivities of direct use traditionally associated with grazing, wildlife and agriculture among others floodplain dwellers and intimately linked to the oc- (table 3.74.). currence of annual floods: fishing during flooding; movement of grazing cattle onto the drying land as 3.3.3 barotseFloodplain floods recede; and fertilization of crops grown in the dry phase by manure from cattle. The Barotse Floodplain, also known as the Bulozi Cattle begin moving onto the floodplain start- Plain or Lyondo, is flat and influenced by several ing around June, with all cattle on the floodplain river systems. Delineating its boundary can there- between August and December. The most cattle fore be difficult (table 3.75.). Timberlake (2000) are on the higher ground from February to May, defined the area as extending from Lukulu to which is a time of stress and high mortality due to downstream of Senanga, and including the Liuwa the poor quality of grazing food. A total of 435,000 Plain National Park, the Luena Flats, the Barotse cattle is estimated to be present on the floodplain Floodplain, and the Lungúe Bungo River wet- in the dry season. lands. Turpie and others (1999) provide estimates Most crops are grown on higher ground outside of the area (table 3.75.), but focus on the Barotse the floodplain, but farming and `garden' areas with- Floodplain. The Barotse Floodplain was listed as a in the floodplain support production of vegetables, Ramsar site in 2007. fruit trees, maize, root crops, and rice. Croplands are prepared in October to January, grown from November to March/April, and harvested between March and May. Fisheries are one of the most important sectors Table 3.75. Estimated area of the Barotse in the Western Province of Zambia. The Barotse Floodplain extended wetlands (ha) Floodplain provides most of the catch. Bream consti- Wetland Area tutes 80 percent of the catch, with smaller numbers Barotse Floodplain 550,000 of tilapia, bottlenose, and other species. Fish move Lungúe Bungo wetlands 70,000 onto the floodplains between December and April and spawn in February and March before the flood Luena Flats 110,000 peak. Fishing is very seasonal. The closed season is Luanginga River 100,000 from January to March (now amended in some areas Liuwa Plains National Park 366,000 from December to February), and the most effective Total 1,196,000 fishing season occurs when the floodwaters recede Source: Turpie and others 1999. and concentrate the fish into smaller areas. Catches 115 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.77. Wetland activities linked to Barotse Floodplain Factor Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Flood season Fish on floodplain Maximum fish catch Crops on floodplain Cattle on floodplain Reeds harvested Papyrus harvested Palm harvested Clay harvested Food scarcity Time range = colored shade; peak time = dark shade. Table 3.78. Current annual financial and economic direct use for the Barotse Floodplain ($, gross and net values) Item Financial gross value Financial net value Economic gross value Economic net value Livestock 3,323,048 3,323,048 3,987,657 3,907,518 Crops 2,357,041 2,341,396 1,297,197 ­159,819 Fish 4,955,618 4,802,800 5,946,741 4,587,143 Birds 4,028 3,395 4,028 2,866 Turtles 7,947 7,894 ,7,947 7,365 Reeds 134,983 30,907 161,979 135,202 Papyrus 130,714 126,164 156,857 111,549 Floodplain grasses 221,952 218,370 266,342 216,800 Grasses value added 5,714 4,285 5,714 3,750 Palms 2,169 1,818 2,169 944 Palms value added 9,661 5,597 9,661 2,313 Clay 57,391 57,083 57,083 46,483 Clay value added 8,570 7,285 8,570 5,276 Total 11,520,000 11,174,000 12,244,000 8,647,000 Source: Turpie and others 1999. Note: Units are $ and for the whole wetland area. This is a very conservative estimate. Many uses are unknown or underreported. are highest in the river channels between April and compared to good years, a situation exacerbated July. Higher flood levels, and possibly longer flood by overfishing. durations, are thought to increase fish productivity, Wild animals of all kinds are becoming progres- as more spawning, feeding, and nursery grounds sively rare on the floodplains because of hunting, become available on the floodplains. Drought years poaching, and habitat destruction. Efforts to reverse can reduce availability of fish by up to 80 percent this trend include controlling hunting, nest thiev- 116 Beneficial Uses of Water ery, and grass burning that destroys nesting sites. Lechwe and reedbuck are poached, turtle caught Table 3.79. Minimum value of the indirect uses in fishing nets, and many bird species--including of the Barotse Floodplain (estimated net present open-billed stork, geese, black stork, great white value of ecosystem services) egrets, ducks, and cormorants--are hunted for food. Indirect use Value ($ million/year) Unrecorded harvesting of many species makes it Flood attenuation 0.4 likely that their values are considerably higher than Groundwater recharge and water supply 5.2 estimated in this study. Medium importance Reeds, especially Phragmites spp., and sedges Sediment retention (not estimated) are used in construction of buildings, fences, mats, Water purification 11.3 and fishing apparatuses. They are harvested as flood waters recede, increasing noticeably from June Shoreline protection n/a onwards and peaking between September and No- Carbon sequestration 27 vember. Papyrus(Cyperus papyrus) is the preferred Commercial fisheries Not included material for sleeping mats and is also used in con- Tourism Not included struction, roofing, and for coffins. The plants occur Minimum total estimate 43.9 higher up the floodplain than reeds and can still be harvested in the flood season, although harvesting peaks from August to December. Grass is used for Zambia, and Botswana. The floodplain system in thatching, tying, weaving, and sometimes for fuel. Eastern Caprivi covers approximately 370,000 hect- It is unknown how much of the grass comes from ares, linking the Kwando/Cuando, Linyanti, Chobe, the floodplain, but harvesting is highly seasonal, and Zambezi rivers. The area of the wetlands used in increasing in between March and May and peak- the Turpie and others (1999) study is located in the ing between July and September. Palm leaves of Kabe constituency, in extreme eastern Caprivi. The Borassus and Raphia are used in baskets, ropes, ty- border of Botswana forms the study area's boundary ing, and construction. Harvesting of leaves tends to along the Chobe River and then extends into Zambia. increase in April, peaking between then and July, The surface area of this part of the wetlands is ap- but remains at moderate levels year round. The proximately 220,000 hectares, with the same range floodplain produces little in the way of fuel wood. of habitats as the Barotse Floodplain. Floods depend Clay is used in construction and for pottery and is on water arriving from the upper catchments and are considered one of the most important resources of often delayed until these areas receive heavy rainfall. the wetland for directly using communities. It is Among the direct uses of the wetlands, one of collected during the early rainy season, mostly from the most important is cattle grazing. The eastern August to December. Turpie and others (1999) tried to estimate the financial value of indirect use of the Barotse Floodplain. In table 3.79., figures are provided for Table 3.80. Approximate study area of different ecosystem services such as groundwater recharge habitat types within the Eastern Chobe-Caprivi or water purification. The accuracy of these esti- Wetlands mates is extremely difficult to confirm and they do Habitat type Percent coverage Area (ha) not include assessment of values incorporated into Palm savanna 2 4,400 direct use. Floodplain grassland 70 154,000 Wet grass 15 33,000 3.3.4 easternchobe-capriviwetlands Reeds and sedges 8 17,600 From Katimo Mulilo in the west to Kazungula in the River channel 5 11,000 east, the Zambezi River forms a series of interlinked Total 100 220,000 floodplains along the borders between Namibia, Source: Turpie and others 1999. 117 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Caprivi floodplain grasslands are home to about that cover the floodplain. Harvest occurs mainly in 124,000 cattle, a third of which move to higher ground July and August at the beginning of the dry season during the peak flood season (March to June). Their when floodwaters are receding and before the main value on the floodplain is mostly linked to milk, other burning season. Papyrus is used for mats for sleep- production and plowing. Locally, fertilizers are not ing, sitting, drying crops, and as a frame for roofs. considered important though cattle is a vital source Grass is used for thatching and is harvested mostly of wealth providing owners with a drought-coping in July when the floodwaters recede and before strategy, access to community rights, as well as other the burning season. Palm leaves, whose uses are intangible benefits such as ceremonial. unknown, are harvested mainly in August after the Maize is grown in the wetter floodplain areas as floodwaters have receded. In addition, several wild floodwaters recede, and millet and sorghum on drier food plants are harvested. Water lily bulbs, located lands. Other minor crops are potatoes, vegetables, in marshy permanent pool areas on the floodplain, beans and other legumes, pumpkin, melons, and are a carbohydrate substitute when food supplies groundnuts, and beer is brewed from grains. The are low. Plants provide food, cooking supplements clay-rich soils of the floodplain combined with a good and medicines. They are mostly harvested in July flooding regime and nutrient balance provide mod- as the floodwaters recede and people can move erately good soils for crops. The area thus provides over the wet floodplain and through shallow pools. adjacent rural areas with some level of food security. Dugout canoes (mikoro) are used for fishing and are Most fishermen in the area belong to the Subia mostly made from Kiaat (Pterocarpus angolensis) and tribe, which traditionally live on the floodplain. Fish Rhodesian Teak (Baikiaea plurijuga). is one of the most important sources of protein and Most activities are linked to the annual flood is eaten most days of the year. Outside the flood pulse (table 3.81.). Fish move onto the floodplain to season, fishing is confined to man-made canals, spawn in February and March and then back into the and the Zambezi and Chobe rivers. Good catches river channels beginning in October. Cattle, in turn, are correlated with years of high rainfall and high move onto the floodplain as the floods subside. The floods, and poor catches with drought years. timing of crop harvesting is unknown but probably Populations of large mammals have declined occurs just before the floods begin. Natural plant drastically in numbers over the last 20 years, es- resources, such as reeds and papyrus, are harvested pecially those associated with wetlands such as at the end of the flood season, after they have enjoyed sitatunga, Lechwe, sable, reedbuck, bushbuck, and maximum growth in favorable wet conditions. waterbuck. For example, the Lechwe has declined Table 3.83., provided by Turpie and others from over 11,000 in the early 1980s to just a few (1999), lists the estimated value of indirect uses. hundred in 1995 due to increased hunting, habitat Readers are directed to that publication for further loss, and habitat changes due to lower rainfalls. details. The figures do not include assessment of Lechwe, sitatunga, and occasionally hippopotamus values incorporated into direct use. are still hunted, but larger wild animals are scarce. Illegal poaching of small antelope occurs in the 3.3.5 Kafuewetlands adjacent Chobe National Park. Wildlife from the National Park, in turn, may move across the bor- The Kafue River is a major tributary of the Zambezi der, destroying crops and nets and killing livestock River. Its drainage basin lies entirely within Zambia (and sometimes people). Waterbirds, such as ducks, and provides 40 percent of the country's potable geese, reed cormorants and darters, and their eggs, water including being the major water source for are also hunted for food. the capital Lusaka. It includes three important wet- Reeds are used for house construction, fences, lands, the Busanga swamps, the Lukanga swamps fish baskets and traps, fish spears and rods, and and the Kafue Flats. While there is little information handicrafts. They are gathered from low-lying available from the Busanga and Lukanga swamps, wetland areas, particularly from the banks of the extensive research has been done on the Kafue Flats. main river channels and the secondary channels The Kafue Flats, upstream of Kafue Gorge, is a broad 118 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.81. Wetland activities linked to the Eastern Chobe-Caprivi Wetlands annual flood pulse Factor Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Flood season Fish on floodplain Maximum fish catch Cattle on floodplain Reeds harvested Grass harvested Palm harvested Wild plants harvested Time range = colored shade; peak time = dark shade. Table 3.82. Current annual financial and economic direct use values for the Eastern Chobe-Caprivi Wetlands ($, net and gross) Item Financial gross value Financial net value Economic gross value Economic net value Livestock 1,944,272 1,944,272 2,060,928 1,830,961 Crops 970,162 945,569 712,889 ­3,962,030 Value added ­ beer brewing 40,438 35,324 40,209 23,547 Fish 1,491,641 1,034,285 1,581,139 694,415 Wild animals including birds 225,565 219,385 219,385 215,723 Reeds 165,865 163,680 175,817 154,456 Papyrus 175,714 173,578 186,256 177,003 Papyrus value added 67,879 61,286 71,952 46,650 Floodplain grasses 129,786 128,935 137,573 129,660 Palms 16,187 14,926 16,187 5,040 Wild food plants 49,293 49,228 49,293 23,369 Total 5,277,000 4,770,000 5,277,000 4,770,000 Source: Turpie and others 1999. Note: Units are $ and for the wetland area studied. This is a very conservative estimate. Many uses are unknown or underreported. alluvial plain, about 250 kilometers long, 60 kilome- cies, numerous fish species and substantial mammal ters wide, and covering around 650,000 hectares. populations such as the Kafue lechwe Kobus leche The retention time for water passing through the kafuensis. The Kafue Flats was listed as a Ramsar site Flats is about two months. Under natural conditions, in 1991. Most information cited for the Kafue Flats water levels start to rise in December and peak be- wetlands is from McCartney, Sullivan, and Acreman tween March and May; by October the floodplains (2000) unless indicated otherwise. and seasonal swamps would be dry. In the region, In 1971 the Kafue Gorge Upper Dam (KGU) the Kafue Flats has some of the most biologically was built downstream of the Flats to produce hy- diverse ecosystems within its meandering river dropower (990 MW capacity). To improve energy channels, lagoons, ox-bow lakes, remnant secondary production targets through a regulation of inflow, channels, marshes, levees, and flooded grasslands. the Itezhi Tezhi Dam (ITT) was built upstream of Among others, it supports more than 400 bird spe- the Flats in 1977. To reduce any negative impact of 119 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.83. Minimum value of the indirect uses of Table 3.84. Direct use value of the Kafue Flats the Eastern Chobe-Caprivi Wetlands (estimated net Wetlands (rapid desktop approach) present value of ecosystem services) Wetland product Value ($ million/year) Wetland product Value ($ million/year) Crops 8.30 Flood attenuation Low Fish 13.30 Groundwater recharge and water supply 0.5 Wildlife 0.01 Sediment retention 8.9 Cattle 2.40 Water purification 1.6 Natural products and medicines 4.26 Shoreline protection n/a Total 28.27 Carbon sequestration 11.0 Source: Seyam and others 2001. Commercial fisheries Not included Tourism Not included Minimum total estimate 22.0 market values. They used a sliding scale of areas contributing to the values with protected areas as- signed 90 percent, partly protected areas 10 percent, ITT Dam on the Kafue Flats (through insufficient and unprotected areas zero percent. Their values for magnitude and timing of floods), extra storage was the Barotse Floodplain, Chobe-Caprivi Wetlands, and built into the Itezhi Tezhi reservoir specifically for Lower Shire Wetlands were quite different from those the purpose of releasing water for restoration of of the more detailed work by Davies, Beilfuss, and natural floods. Since then, some variability of flows Thoms (2000). A major reason being that they con- from ITT into the Flats has been ensured although sidered different surface areas for the same wetlands, the general trend has been lower flood flows and for example 900,000 hectares for Barotse Floodplain shorter duration than the natural flood levels and as opposed to 550,000 hectares in Turpie and others cycles. As flooding patterns have been altered, less (1999). Even accounting for that difference, values frequent flooding occurs in the west of the Kafue still differed by up to four orders of magnitude in Flats and more in the east where additional perma- the two studies, with neither study having values nent water areas have formed. consistently higher or lower than the other. Neverthe- The majority of people living on the Flats obtain less, as these are the only figures available, they are water from wells, boreholes, and streams, and be- reproduced in table 3.84. Indirect values of the Kafue tween 70 and 90 percent rely on firewood for energy. Flats includes resources such as aquifer recharge, Grazing areas for livestock have been reduced, in the flow regulation, inputs and retention of nutrients west due to desiccation and in the east because of and soils, navigation and communication, drought inundation. Cattle grazing has also been negatively survival and maintenance of water quality though affected by problems such as the terminal tick-borne these are not estimated in detail (Timberlake 2000). "corridor disease" (theileriosis) killing thousands of cattle. The spread of the disease is thought to have 3.3.6 lowershirewetlands been caused by the reduced flooding regimes that previously controlled tick numbers. The Lower Shire wetland area extends from Kapi- There has been some decline in fish catches since chira Falls near Blantyre, Malawi, to the confluence the construction of the Itezhi Tezhi Dam in 1977, and of the Shire River with the Zambezi River near some decline in the number of people actively fish- Caia, Mozambique. It includes Elephant Marsh ing, but the Flats still provides about 7,000 tons of and Ndinde Marsh, with additional minor wetland fish per year and the Itezhi Tezhi reservoir another areas (table 3.85.). Literature on the area is sparse 2,000 tons. Seyam and others (2001) used a rapid and mostly outdated. desktop approach to assess the direct use values of The Lower Shire Wetlands are not well protected the wetlands in the Zambezi River Basin using 1990 and appear to be shrinking because of dropping 120 Beneficial Uses of Water Most of the area is under small-holder Table 3.85. Estimated area of the Lower Shire farming. Elephant Marsh becomes very dry in Wetlands below-average rainfall years and is used almost Wetland Area (hectares) entirely for cultivation. Cropping patterns vary Elephant Marsh 60,000 considerably from year to year depending on soil moisture content, among other factors. Major Bangula Marsh 17,000 crops grown on the marshes are maize, sorghum, Ndinde Marsh 80,000 millet, beans, rice, cotton, cassava, and Irish pota- Tributary marshes 5,000 toes. Maize yields are below the national average, Total 162,000 possibly due to a relatively unfavorable climate. Source: Turpie and others 1999. Commercial estates and irrigation schemes are common. In some areas, irrigation supports two crops per year. There is some evidence that soil water levels in Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa; only fertility is decreasing. Links with the traditional Ndinde Marsh is a reasonably intact ecosystem. They pattern of flood-recession agriculture appear to support the same broad categories of habitat types be weakening. as the other wetlands discussed above (table 3.86.). The Lower Shire Wetlands are second only The area receives summer rainfall, with flood- to Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa in the number of ing usually beginning in late January or February. exploitable fish species. The shallow floodplains During periods of high runoff from the local catch- are used for breeding and any reduction in that ments corresponding with floods in the Zambezi area would constitute a threat to commercial activi- River, the Shire River backs up from the Zambezi ties. Most fishing occurs on the floodplains from confluence to north of Elephant Marsh with wide- April to July in receding floodwaters, with a lesser spread local flooding. amount of fishing in the Shire River channels and Like in other areas of the Basin, the wetlands permanent lagoons such as Lisuli (north end of are directly valuable for cattle grazing. Cattle graze Elephant Marsh) during the dry season (November in both the uplands and wetlands and move along to January). Three fish species make up 90 percent the floodplain margins as floodwaters recede. of the catch: two catfish species, Clarias gariepinus Dambos are also used for dry-season grazing and C. ngamensis, and the cichlid Sarotherodon mos- and in drought years. Cattle are moved to higher sambicus. ground during the flood season and before the As in other wetlands, the population of large crop-planting season. An estimated 104,450 cattle mammals--such as sitatunga, lechwe, sable, reed- feed on the floodplain, where they spend an aver- buck, bushbuck, waterbuck, and elephant--has age of seven months per year. declined drastically over the last century. At least 64 species of birds still use Elephant Marsh. Most hunting is of small animals, such as hares, rats, doves, guinea fowl, and wild pigs. Table 3.86. Approximate area of different habitat Reeds and papyrus have the same uses as de- types within the Lower Shire Wetlands scribed for other wetlands. Low flood seasons and Habitat type Percent coverage Area (ha) exceedingly high floods reduce their abundance. Palm savanna 2 3,240 The plants are harvested at the end of the flood sea- Floodplain grassland 20 32,400 son, mostly in July to September. By October most reed beds and papyrus beds have been eradicated Wet grass 45 72,900 by harvesting or burning in preparation for crops. Reeds and sedges 27 43,740 Floodplain grasses are used as described earlier River channel 6 9,720 and harvested mainly from June to September as Total 100 162,000 floodwaters recede. Palms are rarely used. Other Source: Turpie and others 1999. plants are harvested from the floodplain including: 121 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis lily bulbs for carbohydrates and plants for cook- 3.3.7 luangwawetlands ing relish; and wild millet, fruits, roots, leaves and bark for uses such as medicines. Harvesting occurs The Luangwa Wetlands cover 250,000 hectares mainly after the floodwaters recede and into the along the Luangwa River in northern Zambia. dry season, providing an important food source at The wetlands were listed as a Ramsar site in 2007. the end of the dry season when grains are in short The Luangwa River is unregulated and pristine, supply. As with other wetlands, activities are closely meandering between sandy banks in the dry sea- linked to the annual flood pulse (table 3.87.). Most son. In the wet season its width spreads to several activities cease on the floodplain during the height kilometers, filling ox-bow lakes and dambos and of the floods and then gather momentum as the flooding grasslands. The ecoregion supports im- floodwaters recede. portant populations of large mammals and reptiles, Table 3.89. are quoted from the work of Turpie more than 60 fish species, and several hundred bird and others (1999). species. Much of the Luangwa Valley is formally Table 3.87. Wetland activities linked to Lower Shire Wetlands annual flood pulse Factor Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Flood season Fish on floodplain Maximum fish catch Cattle on floodplain Reeds harvested Grass harvested Wild plants harvested Time range = colored shade; peak time = dark shade. Table 3.88. Current annual financial and economic direct use values for the Lower Shire Wetlands ($ gross and net) Wetland product Financial gross value Financial net value Economic gross value Economic net value Livestock 1,769,877 1,769,877 2,123,853 2,006,150 Crops 17,273,419 17,100,408 15,518,227 13,270,048 Fish 3,272,078 1,724,534 3,926,494 1,008,861 Wild animals including birds 55,127 13,636 55,127 10,372 Reeds and papyrus 292,451 283,755 350,942 298,302 Papyrus value added 564,985 371,509 677,982 427,302 Floodplain grasses 1,873,055 1,866,716 2,247,667 2,169,422 Grasses value added 4,493 1,661 5,392 1,866 Palms 41,489 4,802 49,787 1,664 Wild food plants 407,206 385 882 407,206 Clay 468,379 140,347 562,055 223,848 Total 24,943,000 23,865,000 24,630,000 19,854,000 Source: Turpie and others 1999. Note: Units are $ and for the wetland area studied. This is a very conservative estimate. Many uses are unknown or underreported. 122 Beneficial Uses of Water in Mozambique 120 kilometers downstream to the Table 3.89. Minimum value of major indirect uses coast, and between the Rio Cuacua in the north and of the Lower Shire Wetlands (estimated net the Mungari River in the south. It includes the 150,000 present value of ecosystems services) hectare Marromeu Complex and Buffalo Reserve, Value which was designated Ramsar site in 2004. The Indirect use ($ million/year) Delta used to support mangrove swamps as well as Flood attenuation 2.7 the same broad habitat types as the other wetlands described above (table 3.91.). The original flooding Groundwater recharge and water supply 7.5 pattern of high waters between January and April Sediment retention Low and low waters between October and November Water purification 18.4 has been changed because of upstream dams that Shoreline protection n/a now regulate 70 percent of the Basin. Initially, the Carbon sequestration 8.0 Kariba Dam reduced downstream flooding, which Commercial fisheries Not included desiccated the Delta's alluvial soils, causing saliniza- Tourism Not included tion and terrestrialization of the floodplain. Cahora Minimum total estimate 36.6 Bassa Dam amplified the transformation of the flow regime, drastically reducing the magnitude of annual downstream flooding thereby severing the connec- Table 3.90. Direct use value of the Luangwa tion between the river and its floodplain. It is also Wetlands (rapid desktop approach) believed that due to absence of natural or artificial flooding of sufficient magnitude and timing, the Value salinity and thus conductivity of the Shire River has Wetland product ($ million/year) increased. Crops 3.20 There are very few subsistence cattle farmers in Fish 5.10 the Zambezi Delta wetland area, and no recorded Wildlife 0.00 estimated values of cattle present. Subsistence Cattle 0.90 farming is on the other hand common in the Delta, Natural products and medicines 1.64 and an estimated 110,000 hectares of land are under Total 10.84 cultivation. Rice is the dominant crop, followed by Source: Seyam and others 2001. maize, sweet potatoes, cassava, sorghum, millet, protected as national parks and game management areas. Human population density is thought to be Table 3.91. Approximate area of different habitat low. No detailed information is available on the types within the Zambezi Delta direct use values, indirect use value, or existence Habitat type Percent coverage Area (ha) value19 of the wetland area. However, Seyam and Palm savanna 5 63,750 others (2001) performed a rapid desktop analysis so Floodplain grass- as to make rough estimates of the value of a number 40 510,000 land of key wetland products, such as the approach to Wet grass 25 318,750 analyzing the values within the Kafue Flats. Reeds and sedges 10 127,500 River channel 5 63,750 3.3.8 Zambezidelta Mangroves 15 191,250 The Zambezi Delta has an area of 1.4 million hect- Total 100 1,275,000 ares, extending over a triangular area from Mopeia Source: Turpie and others 1999. 19 Existence value refers to the recognition of the value of the existence of the wetlands (WWF 2004). 123 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis sugar, beans, and tobacco. Rice is commonly grown between December and February, to compensate on river banks that have been cleared of mangroves; for subsistence needs prior to crop harvesting. The maize is sowed on higher ground between October uses for reeds, papyrus, and grasses are the same and December and on lower ground in June and July. as in other wetland areas. In the Zambezi Delta, Fish is an important part of the diet of com- there are two types of forest with a range of direct munities living in and near the Zambezi Delta. The values and uses: catfish Clarias gariepinus and cichlids such as Tilapia and Saratherodon species account for about 90 per- · Mangroves are important natural areas for coast cent of the catch. Fishing on the floodplain peaks protection, moderating the effects of storms, in August to December when the floodwaters have providing habitat for commercial fish species, receded, but peaks earlier in the river channels; at absorbing pollutants, and providing high qual- the coast fishermen move from wetland to coastal ity timber, charcoal, firewood, and opportuni- fisheries around June as catches decline in the river. ties for recreation and tourism. There are 5,500 Fish catches at the coast are about 37 percent from hectares of mangroves in the Delta, but this area the sea and 24 percent from the estuary with the is declining due to over-harvesting and changes remainder from freshwater. In the inner delta, more in flow and sediment regimes brought about by fish are harvested from the rivers (approximately upstream dams. 60 percent) than from the floodplains (the other 40 · Palm trees (Borassus aethiopum) and Hyphaene percent). In all areas, good floods equate to high coriacea are of great use in the inner parts of fish catches, though there is a local perception that the Delta. On the coast, Phoenix reclinata and catches have decreased since the construction of the the exotic coconut palm (Coceira sp. Borassus) Cahora Bassa Dam. extend over a 65,000 hectares area as part of a Animal numbers have been severely reduced mosaic of grasslands, woodlands and agricul- over the last two decades, and wildlife will need tural areas. Palm has many uses, among which active management to recover in the face of a desic- are production of planks, roofs, mats, hats, cated floodplain and hunting pressure. Wild plants baskets, and wine. are used for construction, thatching, medicines, fire- wood, wine-making, and cooking similar to other The figures in table 3.94. are provided Turpie wetland areas. Demand for these plants is greatest and others (1999). Table 3.92. Summary of available information on wetland activities in the Zambezi Delta Factor Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Natural flood season (substantially curtailed) Fish catch on floodplain Fish catch in rivers Fish catch in marine areas Crops sown (maize) Reeds and grasses harvested Wild plants harvested (inner delta) Wild plants harvested (outer delta) Time range = colored shade; peak time = dark shade. 124 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.93. Current annual financial and economic direct use values for the Zambezi Delta ($, gross and net) Wetland product Financial gross value Financial net value Economic gross value Economic net value Livestock 0 0 0 0 Crops 7,433,581 7,422,633 7,442,792 3,788,869 Freshwater and estuarine fish 4,995,365 4,791,841 5,994,438 5,225,777 Crustacean (prawns, crabs) 1,125,814 1,075,295 1,350,977 1,226,724 Wild animals including birds 27,083 11,964 27,083 4,570 Mangroves 127,787 107,668 153,345 107,149 Palms 581,159 566,071 661,937 579,436 Palms value added 116,068 79,881 123,414 41,757 Reeds and papyrus 108,229 66,805 108,229 43,862 Papyrus value added 479,506 179,788 479,506 118,685 Floodplain grasses 361,648 360,516 433,978 370,532 Wild food plants 252,432 251,157 252,432 240,001 Clay 4,808 4,808 4,808 3,939 Total 15,609,000 14,914,000 17,028,000 11,747,000 Source: Turpie and others 1999. Note: Units are $ and for the wetland area studied. This is a very conservative estimate. Many uses are unknown or underreported. and underreporting (especially regarding illegal Table 3.94. Minimum value of the indirect uses of activities such as poaching). the Zambezi Delta (estimated net present value of ecosystems services) Value 3.4 TourisM Indirect use ($ million/year) Flood attenuation Medium 3.4.1 Tourisminafrica Groundwater recharge and water supply 3.2 According to the World Tourism Organization Sediment retention Medium (WTO 2005), international tourist arrivals world- Water purification 12.7 wide reached 919 million in 2008, an increase from Shoreline protection Medium 682 million in 2000. The total exceeded all expecta- Carbon sequestration 64.0 tions. Worldwide, international tourism receipts Commercial fisheries Not included totaled some $942 billion in 2008. Over the same Tourism Not included time period, 2000­2008, tourism arrivals to Sub- Minimum total estimate 79.9 Saharan Africa increased from 15.9 to 27.4 millions. Source: Turpie and others 1999. Growing peace, political stability and prosperity is generating larger numbers of affluent and ex- perienced tourists in search of more original and 3.3.9 summaryofvalues more exciting destinations. Africa has grown more prosperous, with a real GDP increase of around 5.5 Table 3.95. summarizes various use values in the percent a year in both 2004 and 2005. That growth Zambezi wetlands. All are rough estimates, and are has generated local and long-haul demand for probably strong underestimates due to the paucity business and leisure travel. Many destinations re- of data, lack of coverage of the Zambezi system, port increased funding for tourism promotion and 125 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.95. Use values in Zambezi System Wetlands (summary of direct use values for six wetlands in the Zambezi River system; and indirect use and existence values for four wetlands) Luangwa Attribute Barotse Chobe-Caprivi Kafue Flats Lower Shire Wetlands Zambezi Delta Area of study (ha) 550,000.0 220,000.0 650,000.0 162,000.0 250,000.0 1,275,000.0 Direct use value ($ million) 11.0 5.0 28.3 24.0 10.8 15.0 Indirect use value ($ million) 43.9 22.0 -- 36.6 -- 79.9 Total annual value ($ million) 55.0 27.0 -- 61.0 -- 96.0 value/ha($) 100.0 123.0 -- 377.0 -- 75.0 Existence value ($ million)* 4.2 1.7 -- 1.2 -- 9.7 Source: The data for the wetlands of the Barotse Floodplain, Chobe-Caprivi, Lower Shire and the Zambezi Delta is taken from Timberlake (2000) and from Seyam and others (2001) for the Kafue Flats and the Luangwa Wetlands. *Values estimated by area as proportion of that for Barotse. better cooperation between the public and private sult 1998b). According to the WTO 2005, tourism in sectors. New tourism products, such as business Sub-Saharan African region grew at more than nine tourism, cultural tourism, ecotourism, and sports percent annually between 1995 and 2005. Based on tourism, are opening up new markets around the the above figures and an inflation rate of two to three world. More African countries have negotiated Ap- percent per year over the last 13 years (expressed in proved Destination Status agreements with China US dollars), and an average growth in tourism of and market expectations are high. between seven and ten percent the tourism industry could currently be anywhere between $1.4 billion and Significance of tourism in Sub-Saharan Africa $2.3 billion. In other words, the Zambezi River Basin could be accounting for between 12 percent and 20 According to World Travel and Tourism Council percent of the tourism economy of member countries. (WTTC 2006), tourism remains a major contribu- That total could vary substantially among countries. tor to the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa. As a In Angola, for example, very few tourists visit areas contributor to GDP however, tourism is expected in the Zambezi River Basin. In Zambia, on the other to decline from 7.9 percent ($71.4 billion) in 2008 to hand, an estimated 54 percent of tourists primarily 7.4 percent ($136.9 billion) by 2018. want to see Victoria Falls and another 34 percent Its contribution to employment is also expected want to experience wildlife, adventure activities, and to fall, from 5.6 percent of total employment as hunting in areas that mostly fall within the Zambezi of 2008 (one in every 17.9 jobs) to 4.9 percent by River Basin (Hamilton and others 2007). 2018 (1 in every 20.3 jobs). Exports earnings from Among the riparian countries, Botswana has international visitors and tourism goods are ex- the highest number of international arrivals, but the pected to generate 12.6 percent of total exports ($42.7 lowest number of beds and the smallest percentage billion) in 2008, growing in nominal terms to $76.2 of non-African visitors, which suggests that many billion (12.8 percent of total) in 2018. tourists are visiting friends or relatives or doing day visits. Zimbabwe has the second largest num- Significance of tourism in the Zambezi ber of international arrivals, followed by Namibia. River Basin Tanzania has the largest number of recorded rooms, followed by Malawi and Mozambique. Malawi In 2007, total annual direct value of tourism in the has the highest recorded nights spent by tourists, ZRB alone was estimated at $443 million (or $457 followed by Tanzania. Statistics on nights spent million with hunting included) (WTTC 2006; Dencon- are incomplete and unreliable, as some recorded 126 Beneficial Uses of Water nights are spent in collective accommodation (which The Caprivi/Chobe/Kasane/Victoria Falls includes friends and relatives), while others do not. area in the Upper Basin is the most significant Tanzania recorded the highest total receipts from tourism destination in the entire Zambezi River international tourism and the highest earnings per Basin. Based on the assumption that water will be international visitor, followed in both categories by extracted from the Caprivi area for irrigation and Botswana and Namibia. for providing Gaborone with water, the impact on the Chobe-Caprivi area is not expected to be too 3.4.2 effectsfromwaterextractionfor damaging. The impact on Victoria Falls, however, tourism could be severe. The area around Livingstone and Victoria Falls The area of the ZRB that lies within Angola will not accounts for 56 percent of the tourism accommoda- be affected significantly by any water extraction or tion capacity (1,704 beds), 46 percent of the total change in flow levels considered in this study. It bed-nights in nature-based tourism establishments therefore will not receive significant further atten- and the second highest turnover rate of visitors in tion. Likewise, the area of the Basin that lies within Zambia. In 2005, it generated $38 million annually Tanzania is not expected to be affected by reservoirs and employed 435 permanent staff (Pope 2005a). or water extraction considered in this study. The peak tourism season (during the more The Zambezi River Gorge between Victoria pleasant winter months of June to August) does Falls and Lake Kariba--an important tourist area-- not coincide with either the mean flow peak sea- would be severely affected by the planned Batoka son (March to May) or with the peak rainy season Dam project. Furthermore, the planned irrigation (September to December) (figure 3.5.). schemes and water extraction for Gaborone at The Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conser- Caprivi could have a severe impact on tourism vation Area (KAZA TFCA) tourism project is a related to Victoria Falls. Some further discussion cooperative effort among five countries--Angola, follows on the importance of maintaining natural Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The flows at Victoria Falls to preserve its tourism ap- KAZA TFCA in southern central Africa covers an peal. area of 400,000 km2. The Victoria Falls is a central Very few tourists visit the portion of the Basin point in the TFCA near the meeting point of four within Mozambique, and this trend is expected of the five participating countries (figure 3.6.). Two to continue for foreseeable future. In the case of major river basins, the Zambezi and the Okavango, Malawi, the effect of water extraction on tourism contribute major wetlands, including the Okavango areas upstream of Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa is Swamps, to the gently undulating KAZA TFCA expected to be limited as there are no plans to build landscapes (Cumming 2008). the High Kholombidzo Dam that would fully regu- late the Lake. Planned irrigation schemes at Caprivi and water extraction for Gaborone could have nega- tive impact on water resources for tourism on the Figure 3.5. Flow regime in Victoria Falls (m3/s) Chobe-Caprivi-Liambezi floodplain. 3,000 2,500 3.4.3 Tourisminthesubbasinsandpossible effectsfromchangesinwaterflow 2,000 1,500 The analysis and assessment of tourism and its value 1,000 in the ZRB is based evaluations of available reports 500 and information. The impact of possible water ex- 0 traction and/or diversion sites will require further OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP verification at each location to verify and further quantify possible impacts. Source: FAO 2008b. 127 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 3.6. Map of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area Liuwa Kabwe Plain ANGOLA Mongu Kafue LUSAKA Mavinga ZAMBIA Lake Kariba Sioma Ngwezi Zam be zi Kasane Livingstone Chizarira Chobe ZIMBABWE NAMIBIA Hwange Moremi (Wankie) Maun Nxai Pan Bulawayo Makgadikgadi B O T S WA N A 0 50 100 Francistown Central KILOMETERS Kalahari CENTRAL CLUSTERS WETLANDS NATIONAL PARK OUTLIERS CLUSTERS GAME RESERVES WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA CONSERVANCY INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES WILDLIFE MIGRATION ROUTES FOREST RESERVE IBRD 37952 July 2010 Source: Conservation International 2008. The mission of the participating countries is: nizing natural resources management approaches "to establish a world-class transfrontier conser- and tourism development across international vation area and tourism destination in the Oka- boundaries; develop mechanisms and strategies vango and Zambezi river basin regions of Angola, for local communities to participate meaningfully Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe within in, and tangibly benefit from, the TFCA; and, pro- the context of sustainable development" (MoU, mote cross-border tourism as a means of fostering December 2006). The primary objectives are to: regional socioeconomic development. This trans- foster transnational collaboration and cooperation frontier conservation effort will directly rely on the in implementing ecosystems and cultural resource availability, quality and sustainability of its water management; promote alliances in the management resources. This is particularly true for the wetland of biological and cultural resources and encourage areas where biodiversity and ecosystems are highly social, economic and other partnerships among their sensitive and interlinked with its waters. governments and stakeholders; enhance ecosystem The financial implications of tourism in the integrity and natural ecological processes by harmo- KAZA TFCA are considerable (Suich and others 128 Beneficial Uses of Water 2005). In 2004, accommodation establishments in mum flow for successful whitewater rafting is the conservation region had a combined capacity of 500 m3 per second. The dam operators claim that 8,312 guests per night. The total revenue generated by they need a flow for the first 30 kilometers down- accommodation establishments and tour operations stream from Victoria Falls and they operate for exceeded $100 million. In the same year, the tourism 365 days of the year. According to Pope (2005a) industry employed a total of 5,204 local workers, 689 more than 34,402 visitors go whitewater rafting of them in part-time jobs. Promoting integrated catch- on this stretch each year at the Zambian side. ment management, for sustaining necessary water Each visitor spends an average of $135 per excur- resources, to the relevant authorities will be vital part sion (excluding accommodation) which means of KAZA TFCA's work. It will also be necessary to total annual revenues from the excursions is more consider land use changes in the high water-yielding than $4.5 million. If two night's accommodation upper reaches of the major rivers flowing into the in the area is included, with an average cost of KAZA TFCA and explore incentives (such as pay- $200 per night, whitewater rafting tourists in this ments for ecosystem services) for those in the upper area on the Zambezi side generates well over $10 catchments to maintain equitable water flows into million per year. the future. Land use practices that degrade wetlands within the KAZA TFCA must also be minimized. Therefore, if the Batoka reservoir dams the As part of the MSIOA, the relationship between water more than 35 kilometers upstream, the entire water management, the environment, and tourism whitewater rafting operation will be closed down, was evaluated. Though seen as given to all scenarios with an estimated loss of $10 million to the economy developed by the models, environmental flows were each year. explored in particular by introducing two scenarios: one for the low waters season allowing the main- · The Kafue Flats, which also includes the re- tenance of a minimum flow; and the other for the nowned Kafue National Park, already has a flood season ensuring that natural floods are only dam at Itezhi Tezhi. Although some improve- reduced to a certain extent (that is, not beyond a ments to the dam--such as new turbines--are fixed percentage). planned, the changes are not expected to alter The reliability of these scenarios depend on the flows and should have no further effect on the amount and quality of available data and knowl- natural environment and tourism in the area. An edge for the geographic areas considered as well additional reservoir below the existing Kafue as the economic dimensions of tourism. It should Gorge Upper reservoir, the Kafue Gorge Lower, also be noted that information on tourism is more is planned. This area is not a tourism area, and readily available for Victoria Falls and in the outer no impact on tourism is expected. Zambezi Delta compared to in other parts of the · Luangwa National Park, Lake Kariba, and Mana Basin. The relationships between water manage- Pools. Luangwa North and South National ment, the environment, and tourism have large Parks, Lake Kariba, and Mana Pools are some scale, multifaceted and complex dimensions. There of the most important tourism attractions in the is therefore an urgent need for more investment in middle Basin. No new water extraction or dam- information gathering, monitoring, and capacity. ming projects are planned for this area. · Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. The primary tourism · Lower Victoria Falls. The area between Victoria attraction in the Lower Basin is Lake Malawi/ Falls and Lake Kariba is an internationally rec- Niassa/Nyasa. The Malawi Ministry of Tour- ognized whitewater rafting area. The proposed ism, Wildlife and Culture reports that future Batoka reservoir 65 kilometers downstream of tourism projects are planned, including confer- Victoria Falls is expected to have a major effect ence resorts, lodge additions and upgrades on on the whitewater potential of the Gorge as it the lakeshore and in Blantyre (Republic of Ma- may dam water back up the river towards the lawi 2008). The areas upstream of Lake Malawi/ falls. According to Denconsult (1998c), the mini- Niassa/Nyasa are not significant for tourism. 129 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis · Shire River. Liwonde National Park, south of ticularly at Victoria Falls, Lake Malawi/Niassa/ Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa on the Shire River, Nyasa, Lake Kariba, Kafue Flats, Luangwa Valley, offers bird watching, boating safaris, and game and the Zambezi Delta. drives. In the extreme south, Lengwe National The natural game populations are one of the Park is popular for hiking and bird watching major tourism attractions and competitive advan- (Republic of Malawi 2008). The Shire River is tages of the Zambezi River Basin. Formally pro- also a popular sport fishing area. There are other tected areas, such as national parks, game reserves, reservoirs under consideration for the Shire conservancies, and game management areas play River though the sites appear to fall outside an important role in conserving those populations. protected areas and are not expected to have a The transfrontier conservation areas are also playing significant influence on tourism. a constructive role in the further development and · Zambezi Delta. The areas around the Cahora Bassa joint management of protected areas in the region. Dam and its reservoir have very limited tourism That area contains a number of well-developed and infrastructure. Plans for further expansions at world-renowned tourism destinations, such as the Cahora Bassa North and South, as well as for Victoria Falls complex, the Chobe-Kasane complex, the planned Mphanda Nkuwa Dam upstream and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa as elaborated ear- of Tete, also have no immediate consequence for lier. The tourism infrastructure is well established tourism. The two dams' flow release regimes are in these areas, strengthening the viability of the expected to have a strong effect on the environ- incomes generated as well as multiplier effect on ment, however, and therefore on the future tour- associated businesses. ism potential of the Marromeu Complex (Beilfuss Local employment in the conservation and tour- and Brown 2006). The Marromeu Complex has ism sectors is relatively high. A large informal sector possibly some of the best future tourism poten- has developed around the major tourism destina- tial in the lower subbasin and in the Zambezi tions, which results in substantial local benefits for Delta (which is already a recognized wetland host communities. The tourism sector in the SADC of international significance). The considerable region and in the Zambezi River Basin is performing tourism potential in these wetlands is linked to well, with constant growth in tourism numbers for its spectacular game and bird populations. These most areas over a number of years. With increased populations have however declined in recent efforts in marketing the tourism attractions, nation- years for various reasons, including the reduction ally and internationally, actual arrival figures have of natural flooding caused by the construction of continued to rise. Cahora Bassa Dam (Beilfuss, and Brown 2006). No final plans for operation and maintenance Challenges are yet in place to regulate flow to the benefit of the downstream ecosystems and biodiversity. Some of the more prominent tourist destinations are It is therefore impossible at this time to assess isolated. The cost of transport to those destinations the economic potential and the possible impact is therefore high, with limited potential for tourism of the operation of Cahora Bassa, its planned circuits and packages. The potential for growth in extensions and the planned Mphanda Nkuwa tourism is also limited by the lack of other attrac- Dam and reservoir. tions nearby which can accelerate development of tourism sites and offer a diversity of experiences. 3.4.4 Tourism­strengthsandchallenges Due to the length of the Basin and issues of isola- tion, gateways to tourism and access to markets to Strengths support tourism are both expensive and limited. The generally poor condition of road and air in- The Zambezi River Basin is endowed with relatively frastructure also hinders accessibility. Many areas unspoiled wildlife, scenic, cultural, and adventure lack bulk infrastructure support (water, electricity, attractions, most notably along the river and par- and telecommunications), and will require major 130 Beneficial Uses of Water investment from the private sector. Lack of planning for achieving synergies and accomplishing mutu- and infrastructure investment in road access to and ally beneficial goals. The lack of cooperation also within protected areas has also constrained private prevents the effective marketing and packaging of sector investment that otherwise could contributed tourism products. Tourism information and travel to tourism growth. distribution systems are therefore poor. Locals worry According to tourism operators, investment about the large percentage of tourism products in the tourism industry is limited by a number of owned by foreigners and the limited local benefits factors. These include, the lack of favorable govern- of tourism. Operators, on the other hand, are con- ment policies, lengthy and complicated bureaucratic cerned about the lack of skilled human resources procedures for investments, lack of decentralized and the inability of government to facilitate a better administrative procedures, lengthy and complex distribution of benefits. Governments in the Basin licensing processes, as well as need for developing also need to implement results-driven planning, professional capacities at multiple levels of the tour- develop relevant infrastructure, and establish incen- ism industry. Growth has been limited to individual tives targeted to develop the untapped potential of and ad hoc initiatives on the part of private sector priority attraction sites. investors and non-government agencies. In general, Investment for tourism projects is mostly cooperation between the private sector operators sourced internationally rather than domestically. As and government departments is not always well a result of underdeveloped accessibility, infrastruc- organized or efficient. This limits the potential ture, and business and investment environments, Table 3.96. Tourism ­ strengths and challenges Subbasin Strengths Challenges Upper Basin Attraction of Victoria Falls. Bed night occupancies in KAZA TFCA region is (from Kabompo to very low. Cuando/Chobe, Infrastructure and variety of products at Chobe and Victoria Falls. 13 to 8) Lack of infrastructure in protected areas. Private sector investment. Lack of linkages and packaging of products. Spin-off benefits to local entrepreneurs. KAZA TFCA initiative. Middle Basin Flow regulation at Kariba permitted the creation of Mana Pools, a series of Limited access and infrastructure at Luangwa (from Kafue to ponds on the Zimbabwe bank of the Zambezi downstream. Mana Pools is a Valley. Luangwa, 7 to 5) UNESCO heritage site. High cost of supplies to Luangwa and Kafue. Biodiversity of Luangwa Valley and Kafue Flats. Large fluctuation in tourism season at Luangwa Low density of tourism, isolation. Valley. Traditional attraction of Kariba Dam. Unique whitewater rafting. Lower Basin Unique wetland at Marromeu Complex, Marromeu Special Reserve, a buffalo Decrease in Marromeu Complex habitats. (from Mupata to reserve, two classified forests, 5% of the total of Mozambican mangrove and Zambezi Delta, four hunting concessions (Ramsar site since 2003). Declined wildlife populations in Marromeu 4 to 1) Complex. Malawi initiative for attracting investments. Illegal hunting and lack of management capacity at Marromeu Complex. 131 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis operational costs are high. Local entrepreneurs market amongst international travelers. Products wanting to enter the industry or its supply chains should be packaged to offer variety and longer visits are also hindered by the lack of financial and politi- (including cross-border excursions) to justify the cal support. This results in a comparatively short high cost of tourists traveling to a distant destination. supply chain and a reduced multiplier effect. Some areas with high tourism potential, such as Throughout the Zambezi River Basin, wildlife Victoria Falls, already have good access infrastruc- agencies are insufficiently funded and severely lack ture, such as airports and road linkages. These areas management capacity and other resources. As a re- therefore offer an attractive opportunity to potential sult, infrastructure in protected areas has not been investors and could be expanded to be a regional maintained and very little new infrastructure invest- and international tourism gateway. Such a transfor- ment occurred in recent years. Most wildlife popula- mation would require that the governments provide tions are not adequately surveyed and monitored and investors with appropriate infrastructure support their numbers have either declined or remain low. As and incentives. The Zambezi riparian governments a result, conservation objectives and standards have recognize the economic benefit of tourism and have not been achieved or cannot be measured. Conflicts therefore made it a priority. Giving priority to tour- between humans and animals are also reported in ism can attract international donor funding and many areas. The tourism potential of the region, technical support for proactive planning and de- along with its benefits to local economies and com- velopment of the region's tourist potential. Public- munities, remains largely unexploited. private partnerships with nature-based conces- sionaires and operators within protected areas also 3.4.5 Tourism­opportunitiesandconstraints remain an untapped source of revenue for wildlife conservation agencies and communities. The growth in global and Sub-Saharan African tour- Threats to tourism development include factors ism figures offers potential for expanding tourism such as political instability (real or perceived) in the products at well-established tourism destinations. eyes of tourists, and difficulties with accessing visas The region is extremely well endowed with natural and crossing borders. Furthermore, insufficient areas and cultural diversity, which is a growing niche wildlife management capacity and insufficient Table 3.97. Tourism ­ opportunities and constraints Subbasin Opportunities Constraints Upper Basin (from Kabompo to Victoria Falls area has infrastructure and capacity for further Over-utilization of primary tourism nodes. Cuando/Chobe, 13 to 8) expansion. Increased crime at primary tourism nodes. Protected Areas have untapped potential. KAZA TFCA Initiative can access funding and draw tourists. KAZA TFCA offers opportunity for diversified products. Donor investments in Kafue National Park can stimulate private sector investment. Middle Basin (from Kafue to Untapped tourism potentials Luangwa Valley and Kafue Flats. Batoka pond could severely affect and even Luangwa, 7 to 5) destroy the white water rafting operations below Victoria Falls. Lower Basin (from Mupata to Substantial underutilized potential for tourism in Marromeu Flooding regime at Marromeu Complex can Zambezwi Delta, 4 to 1) Complex over the long-term. reduce wildlife and bird populations and tourism potential. Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa and Shire River has untapped potential. Developments along Shire River can impact on tourism potentials. 132 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.98. Summary of tourism arrivals in the riparian countries (World Tourism Organization 2004) International tourist statistics Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe International arrivals (1, 000) 194 1,515* 471 711 986 583 515 1,854 Number of rooms 9,358 3,589* 20,871 13,807 2,749* 30,950 5,360 5,766 Nights spent by inbound tourists 143 n/a 3,617 259** 299* 2,200* n/a n/a (1000) International tourist receipts 66 468* 24 95 403 621 161 194 ($ million) Receipts per international visitor 340 549 51 203 409 1,097 313 104 Source markets:*** Africa % 21.5 88.8 76.6 87.6 75.6 44.0 71.2 77.1 Europe % 52.1 4.0 15.9 7.9 20.4 38.1 17.8 12.7 Other % 26.4 7.2 7.5 8.7 4.0 17.9 10.0 10.2 Source: WTO 2005. Notes: n/a ­ No Information in report. * 2003 ­ Latest figures reported; ** 2002 ­ Latest figures reported; *** 2000 ­ Latest figures reported . Table 3.99. Economic role of tourism Angola Botswana Malawi Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe 2008 GDP contribution 7,656.1 1,110.0 159.0 1,051.7 1,551.8 677.2 434.8 ($ million) 2018 GDP contribution 13,744.6 2,458.3 270.1 2,967.9 2,693.3 1,707.3 632.3 forecast ($ million) GDP % contribution 9.9 9.4 5.9 14.5 9.7 5.1 9.8 (2008) GDP % contribution 7.3 11.9 5.9 20.7 8.9 5.2 9.6 forecast (2018) Employment 334,000 60,000 142,000 77,000 719,000 75,000 87,000 (2008) Employment forecast 333,000 80,000 178,000 129,000 829,000 92,000 93,000 (2018) Employment % 8.1 10.7 4.6 18.2 7.7 4.5 8.8 (2008) Employment % 5.9 13.2 4.6 23.7 7.0 4.5 8.7 (2018) Expected real GDP 13.7 1.6 4.3 5.9 3.7 6.7 ­8.7 growth in 2008 Expected real GDP average 4.3 6.3 4.1 7.7 3.9 6.0 3.8 over next 10 years 2008 Export earnings from 6,284.2 967.8 64.6 650.6 1,111.1 211.8 347.7 foreign tourists ($ million) 2018 Export earnings 9,413.8 2,147.2 115.8 2,092.8 1,932.2 380.0 592.9 forecast ($ million) Continued on next page 133 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.99. Economic role of tourism (continued) Angola Botswana Malawi Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe 2008 Export earnings 10.3 12.3 9.2 15.6 31.7 4.7 16.0 from foreign tourists (%) 2018 Export earnings 11.0 14.7 9.3 22.6 24.8 7.2 9.6 forecast (%) World Ranking ­ absolute 65 118 157 122 104 131 149 size worldwide World Ranking ­ relative contribution to national 79 86 147 50 82 160 81 economies World Ranking ­ long-term 83 47 93 8 87 42 55 (10-year) growth Source: WTTC 2006. Note: Information on Mozambique was not listed in the WTTC report. Figure 3.7. Contribution to GDP from tourism in Figure 3.9. Contribution to GDP from tourism in 2008 ($) 2008 (%) 9,000 8,000 16% 7,000 14% 6,000 12% 5,000 10% 4,000 8% 3,000 6% 2,000 4% 1,000 2% 0 0 Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Source: WTTC 2006. Source: WTTC 2006. Figure 3.8. Export earnings from tourism in Figure 3.10. Employment in tourism industry 2008 ($) in 2008 7,000 800,000 6,000 5,000 600,000 4,000 3,000 400,000 2,000 1,000 200,000 0 0 Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe Source: WTTC 2006. Source: WTTC 2006. 134 Beneficial Uses of Water funding of protected areas has led to declining which seldom exhibit large variations in height. The wildlife populations and reduced standards of in- floodplains have water on them for long periods frastructure maintenance. This situation threatens of time, while the low water flow periods are rela- the future the most important regional attraction tively short. Marginal vegetation is abundant and for tourists. provides cover for small fish species and juveniles Local communities believe that they bear a dis- of larger species. proportionately high fraction of the cost of wildlife The middle Zambezi River is a "sandbank" tourism compared to the benefits that they receive. river (Jackson 1961) since its flow is much more This situation can create increased competition for variable, and it has little marginal vegetation. The land and increased wildlife-human conflict. lack of cover exposes small fish to severe predation. The change in flood regimes caused by new res- Floodplains appear again around the confluence of ervoirs could affect the scenic beauty of some river the Shire River and the Zambezi Delta. The number systems as well as the habitats of wildlife and birdlife, of species increases here, partly because of the ap- thus directly affecting primary tourist attractions. pearance of marine elements but also because of Unsustainable hunting methods can potentially also the reappearance of some species typically found reduce wildlife populations. Uncontrolled overde- in the upper Zambezi. velopment could also reduce the natural attraction The geology of the Basin determines the chem- of prime tourist sites through landscape damage. istry of the river, which affects the productivity of its fisheries. Much of the upper Zambezi River Basin consists of unconsolidated, wind-blown Kalahari 3.5 FisheriesandaquaculTure Sands which are poor in nutrients. Kalahari sands are largely absent from the rest of the Basin, where 3.5.1 aquatichabitats the river and tributaries are richer in nutrients. En- riched by tributaries, the Zambezi River's nutrient There are three major ichthyologic regions in the levels rise along its course. Zambezi River Basin. Waterfalls--Victoria Falls on The floodplains are widely distributed along the Zambezi River, Avumba Menda Falls on the the rivers in the upper Zambezi and Kafue river Kafue River, and Kalomo Falls--separate the Upper basins and, to a lesser extent, the Lower Shire and Zambezi and Kafue Rivers from the lower parts of lower Zambezi rivers. They are highly produc- the system. There are about 85 species of fish in the tive systems, which are renewed each year during upper Zambezi River and 80 in the Kafue River. the flood season. Most fish species move onto the The middle and lower Zambezi River Basins have floodplain to breed at the time of the first floods in fewer fish--about 60 freshwater species, plus 15 November and December. Spawning on the flood- marine species in the lower river. Lake Malawi/Ni- plain offers juvenile fish the advantages of abundant assa/Nyasa is hydrologically a part of the Zambezi food, well-oxygenated conditions, and security from system, but a series of waterfalls separate its fish predation. Other species inhabit the system more or fauna from that of the Zambezi River System. The less permanently, living amongst the weeds in the Lake has more endemic species than any other lake marshes (Welcomme 1985). Economically, the most in the world. In particular, it has an extremely large important family of the floodplains is the Cichlidae. and diverse fauna of cichlid fishes (more than 500 These fish are generally sparse in the sandbank riv- species). It has relatively few non-cichlids, which are ers of the lower and middle Zambezi. more closely related to the Congo fauna than they are There are only two significant natural lakes in to fishes of the Zambezi River (Denconsult 1998d). the Basin. Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa is located The upper Zambezi River is a "reservoir" river in the southernmost part of the Rift Valley and is (Jackson 1961) which favors the evolution of fish very deep (with a maximum depth of 758 meters species. Relatively high rainfall means that water and an average depth of 426 meters) and anaero- is abundant all year. Extensive swamps and flood- bic from about 250 meters down (Patterson and plains act as buffers to regulate the flow of the rivers, Kachinjika 1995). The second lake, Lake Malombe, 135 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis has an average depth of seven meters and is essen- consists of some species similar to those found in tially a southern extension of Lake Malawi/Niassa/ Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa that have been able Nyasa. It did not exist 100 years ago when the level to pass down the Shire River. The Lake was once of Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa was at the lowest marshy with dense beds of aquatic vegetation and level known in the historical record. Its fish fauna extensive reed beds around the shore. These plants Table 3.100. Fisheries and Aquaculture ­ strengths and challenges Subbasin Strengths Challenges Upper Basin (from High potential with more than 300 kilometers of Zambezi River and large Relative low productivity mainly due to nutrient- Kabompo to Cuando/ tributaries (Cuando/Chobe, Luanginga, Lungúe Bungo). poor Kalahari sands. Chobe, 13 to 8) Barotse Floodplain (average catches of 7,500 t/yr but with potential yield Low availability of data in some parts. of 14,000 t/yr) (Denconsult 1998d). At least 60 forest lakes, mainly in the Mongu district. More than 90 species of fish. Tradition of fisheries among Lozi people. Developed commercial aquaculture, including large-scale fish farm in Kafue, small-scale fish farms in upper Zambezi, and fish farming on Lake Kariba with production estimated at 5,000 t/yr. Crocodile farms along Zambezi River, Lake Kariba and Luangwa River (Worldfish/Government of Zambia/CGIAR 2004). Middle Basin (from Kafue River and floodplain, one of the most important for Zambia Potential yield for Lake Kariba is relatively low for Kafue to Luangwa, (average catches of 7,000 t/yr in1990­94 but with potential yield of inshore fishery: 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes because of 7 to 5) 17,000 t/yr) (Denconsult 1998d). the steep shoreline of the lake (fish need less than 10 m in depth). Lake Kariba with inshore fishery and Kapenta fishery (sardine intro- duced). Kapenta fishery has a potential of 40,000 t/yr. Fisheries declined in 1980s in Kafue Flat after changes of water regime due to Itezhi Tezhi and Lukanga swamps on Kafue River (average catches of 1,400 t/yr in Kafue Gorge dams. 1966­94 but with potential yield of 8,000 t/yr (Denconsult 1998d). Few people in Lukanga Swamps now live on fishing Presence of Lake Itezhi Tezhi (average catches of 640 t/yr in 1990­94 activity. (Denconsult 1998d). Luangwa River has a lower potential due to the Fishery activities are important between Kariba Dam and the Luangwa seasonal variation of flow. River confluence, mainly on Zambian side. Cyprinidae population in Zimbabwe declined after Numerous small water bodies with potential catches of at least dam construction. 10,000 t/yr (with average of 150 kg/ha). Lower Basin (from Presence of Lake Cahora Bassa, nutrient-richer than Lake Kariba with Decline of tilapiine fisheries in Lake Malombe due Mupata to Zambezi inshore fishery and Kapenta fishery. Kapenta fishery is producing to overfishing. Delta, 4 to 1) 16,000 t/yr with 52 projects according (Worldfish Center 2007) and Problem of eutrophication in Lake Chivero. inshore fish of 6,700 t/yr (Worldfish/Government of Zambia/CGIAR 2004). Weak availability of data for catches on Zambezi Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, with diverse and complex fish fauna with River, especially for Zambezi Delta. average catches around 50,000 t/yr and potential estimated between 100,000 to 140,000 t/yr. The fishery sector employs more than 300,000 people in Malawi (4% of GDP). Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa harbors more than 500 endemic fish species (Worldfish Center 2007). Presence of Lake Malombe with 10,000 t/yr of average catches. Continued on next page 136 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.100. Fisheries and Aquaculture ­ strengths and challenges (continued) Subbasin Strengths Challenges Lower Basin (from Presence of floodplains along the Lower Shire in Malawi such as Elephant Mupata to Zambezi march with 4,000 fishermen and average catches around 8,500 t/yr. Delta, 4 to 1) Presence of numerous small water bodies mainly in Zimbabwe (around (cont'd.) 12,000 according (Worldfish Center 2007). Fishery is possible on main part of Zambezi River from the town of Tete until the Delta with potential yield around 700 t/yr and catches estimated around 340 t/yr according (Denconsult 1998d). Fisheries in the Zambezi Delta (Beilfuss and Brown 2006EN10). Shallow-water shrimp fisheries in Sofala bank: 10,000 t/yr now with po- tential around 12­14,000 t/yr depending on flows in recruitment period (October to March with peak in December to January). Freshwater fisheries very important for population (more than 70 species): catfish, Mozambique tilapia, tigerfish, etc.(minimum catches estimated at 10,000 t/yr). Coastal and estuarine bottom fish (such as catfish) are sold dried in the region. Table 3.101. Fisheries and Aquaculture ­ opportunities and constraints Subbasin Opportunities Constraints Upper Basin (from Increased demand for fish due to population growth and improvement Dam construction (such as Batoka Gorge) and Kabompo to Cuando/ of food regime. modified fish population (decrease of running Chobe, 13 to 8) water fish, increase of fish with more flexible Potential of fish imports for most of the countries (Botswana), which breeding pattern). can be produced in the Zambezi River Basin. Pollution of Lukanga swamps on middle Kafue Potential of the Lake Liambezi recharge project with high potential for River due to mining activities. fisheries. Increased number of fishermen in Kafue subbasin. Dam construction create condition for fishery development in lakes. Increased use of illegal fishing methods, mainly Fast rate of development of commercial fish farming in cages (World- kutumpula and small mesh gillnets. fish/Government of Zambia/CGIAR 2004). Drought in Lukanga swamps (Worldfish/Govern- Dissemination and improvement of small-scale aquaculture technolo- ment of Zambia/CGIAR 2004). gies (Worldfish Center 2007). Reduced spawning and recruitment due to severe Nepad Fisheries Action Plan, the SADC Protocol on Fisheries and level fluctuations in Lake Itezhi Tezhi (Worldfish/ National Plans. Government of Zambia/CGIAR 2004). Climate change. Invasive species such as Niloticus. Illegal fishing. Disease: epizootic ulcerative syndrome (EUS), caused by a fungal pathogen found in Zambezi River in 2007 (first time in Africa). Continued on next page 137 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 3.101. Fisheries and Aquaculture ­ opportunities and constraints (continued) (continued) Subbasin Opportunities Constraints Middle Basin (from Very little room for expansion of Kapenta Fishery in Cahora Bassa Risk of overfishing in Kafue Flats. Kafue to Luangwa, (Worldfish Center 2007) but strong potential of development of com- Pollution in Kafue River from the mines and towns 7 to 5) mercial fish farming in cages. of the Copperbelt and Lusaka Region and on Lake Increased demand for fish due to population growth and improvement Kariba from Zimbabwean plateau mines. of food regime. Intense development of irrigation in Zambia could Potential for fish imports for most of the countries, which can be increase pollution and reduce water availability. produced in the Zambezi River Basin. Aquatic weeds, mainly water hyacinth is largely Dissemination and improvement of small-scale aquaculture technolo- present in Kafue Gorge, Lake Kariba. gies (Worldfish Center 2007). Activities of the some stakeholders (see above). Nepad Fisheries Action Plan, the SADC Protocol on Fisheries and National Plans. Lower Basin (from Increased demand for fish due to population growth and improvement Construction of dams (such as Mphanda Nkuwa) Mupata to Zambezi of food regime. modifies fish population (decrease of running water Delta, 4 to 1) fish, increase of fish with more flexible breeding Potential for fish imports. pattern). Dams create condition for fishery development (Mphanda Nkuwa, for Overfishing in Lake Malombe with loss of Chambo example). fishery. Fast rate of development of commercial fish farming in cages (Worldfish/ Risk of overfishing in Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa. Government of Zambia/CGIAR 2004). High risk of siltation in Malawi, Tete Province in Dissemination and improvement of small-scale aquaculture technologies Mozambique and part of Zimbabwe. (Worldfish Center 2007). Pollution downstream from Harare (Lake Chivero). Nepad Fisheries Action Plan, the SADC Protocol on Fisheries and National Plans. Aquatic weeds, mainly water hyacinth, are largely present in Lake Chivero, Lake Cahora Bassa, the Fisheries in the Zambezi Delta (Beilfuss and Brown 2006): Lower Shire River, the Lilongwe River. · Shallow-water shrimp fisheries in Sofala bank: potential around 12­14,000 t/yr depending on flows in recruitment period (October Pollution of floodplains. to March with peak in December-January). Water level fluctuation in Delta. · Estuarine bottom fish: abundance of bottom fish is directly propor- tional to the extent of flooded area. Reduction of natural floods in Delta. · Mangrove crab. have now been eliminated by the intensive use of There are numerous smaller bodies of water seine nets. throughout the basin. Most are reservoirs that have Two major reservoirs have been constructed on been constructed during the last hundred years. the Zambezi River: the first, filling of Lake Kariba Reservoir construction has been most intense in (around 5,400 km2) was completed in 1968 and the Zimbabwe, where there are now about 4,500 reser- second, Lake Cahora Bassa (around 2,700 km 2), voirs with individual surface area greater than one was completed in 1975. Other important reservoirs hectare. These small bodies of water have significant include Lake Itezhi Tezhi and Kafue Gorge Upper potential as sources of fish that has not been fully reservoir on the Kafue; Mulungushi and Mita Hills realized. Most small reservoirs are not built to be on tributaries of the Luangwa; Lakes Chivero and fisheries, however, which may restrict their produc- Manyame on the Manyame River; and the Sebakwe tivity. For example, they typically fluctuate much dam on the Sebakwe River. more than natural lakes do, especially when they are 138 Beneficial Uses of Water used for irrigation. Farmers use much of the water, Shire River (Mozambique and Malawi). All three and many small reservoirs are almost completely countries bordering Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa emptied each year. The effects of these fluctuations utilize the lake for navigation (Denconsult 1998c). on fish production have not been studied. The terminal section of the Zambezi--running The only estuaries in the Zambezi River Basin from the Indian Ocean and 570 km upstream from are found in the Zambezi Delta. Their salinity ranges Mphanda Nkuwa--is the longest navigable portion from fresh water in their upper reaches to seawater at of the River. Coal was transported over the river in their outer reaches. Salinity can vary daily along this barges in the 1940s and molasses in the 1970s. Con- gradient according to the tides or seasonally accord- struction materials for the Cahora Bassa Dam were ing to the flow of the rivers. With reduced freshwater also transported in barges up Mphanda Nkuwa. At inflow, salinity can rise above that of seawater. Estua- present, navigation only occurs at the crossings at rine fish are able to tolerate a wide range of salinity. Luangwa/Kanyemba and Caia (where construction Some freshwater species, like the Mozambique tilapia of a new bridge started in 2009). (Oreochromis mossambicus) can also penetrate estuar- Other projects in the region may also require ies. Many typically marine estuarine species--like navigation. There are plans for coal mining activities gobies, mullets, and tarpon--can also tolerate fresh- in the Tete province, which will involve transporta- water and can be found far inland. The Bull Shark, tion of coal in barges down the Zambezi River. The for example, (Carcharhinus leucas) has penetrated the rehabilitation of Sena Sugar Estates may create the Zambezi River as far as Cahora Bassa (Skelton 1993). need for navigation for transporting molasses. Fi- Temporary waters can be found throughout the nally, the construction of the Mphanda Nkuwa river Basin during the rainy season and include the "for- Dam will make the portion of the river between est lakes" of the Upper Zambezi and the "pans" of Mphanda Nkuwa and Cahora Bassa navigable the Middle and Lower Zambezi. Few have signifi- (SADC 2000a). The navigation potential of the Shire cant importance for fish production. The lungfish River depends not only on water flows from the (Protopterus annectens) is an important inhabitant of Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, but even more on many temporary waters in the lower Zambezi and water weeds, which present a major obstacle. Major are utilized by local people. Man-made habitats like navigation between Nsanje/Chiromo (Malawi) and sewage ponds, drainage ditches, and water stor- Chinde might also resume (SADC 2000a). age dams can also be found throughout the Basin. Compared to Lake Kariba, which lies further Many of them support fish, but their potential as a upstream in the central Zambezi River system, the resource has never been fully investigated. Strengths development of navigation on Lake Cahora Bassa and challenges in fisheries is summarized in table has been slow for two main reasons. First, the lake 3.100., and opportunities and threats in table 3.101. is situated in a more remote area far from major towns and from the capital Maputo in particular. Second, development in Mozambique was signifi- 3.6 navigaTion cantly hampered by the civil war which ended in 1992. Lake Cahora Bassa was frequently used for Navigation on the Zambezi River (figure 3.11.) navigation soon after impoundment and there were comprises three major categories: main international even plans for expanding navigation efficiency. transport routes (Kazungula, Luangwa-Kanyemba); Today transfer service is offered between Songo major national routes, such as those in the upper and Gumbo (SADC 2000a). Some 30 km before the Zambezi River and on Lake Malawi/Niassa/ reservoir starts, the Cahora Bassa Gorge is charac- Nyasa; and small crossings that provide access to terized by very high slope margins, ploughed by major markets (Denconsult 1998c). Navigation on small gulfs. Although Lake Cahora Bassa lies along the tributaries consists mostly of ferry-pontoons the reservoir center line and is sufficiently deep for for vehicles and cargo. There are major crossings navigation, it does present some obstacles such as at the following tributaries: Kabompo River, Kafue rock bottom is at Nhacapiriri, while sand bottom is River, Chobe River (Namibia and Botswana), and reported specially at Zumbo and Mucanha. Within 139 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Lake Cahora Bassa, half submerged trees are still a The project will include the following major serious hazard in shallow areas and in the entrance components: channel (SADC 2000a). · Construction of the port of Nsanje in Malawi 3.6.1 ongoinginitiatives and expansion and modernization of the port of Chinde in Mozambique. (Hydroplan 2006); NEPAD's development of the Shire-Zambezi Wa- · Dredging and conversion of the Shire-Zambezi terways Project is among the main navigational waterway into a modern canal; initiatives in the region. The project will entail re- · Construction of Chiromo Rail/Road Bridge; opening of the Shire and Zambezi rivers to naviga- · Rehabilitation and upgrading of railway line tion to provide a direct waterway transport system from Nsanje through Blantyre, Lilongwe, and between Nsanje in Malawi and the port of Chinde Mchinji to Chipata near the Zambia/Mozam- on the Indian Ocean--a distance of approximately bique border; 238 km. In addition, the project will link Malawi · Provision of barges on Lake Malawi/Niassa/ to the region as a whole (SADC 2000b). In April Nyasa to serve Malawi, Mozambique and 2007, the governments of Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania; and Zambia signed a MoU for collaboration on the · Construction and rehabilitation of the road implementation of the Shire-Zambezi Development from Salima through Lilongwe and Mchinji to Project (Malawi/Mozambique/Zambia 2007). Zambia; Table 3.102. Navigation ­ strengths and challenges Subbasin Strengths Challenges Upper Basin (from Kabompo Existence of ferry crossings in Chavuma, Zambezi town, The crossings upstream had to stop operation during 2 to 3 to Cuando/Chobe, 13 to 8) Katima Mulilo, Kalongola Senanga, Kazungula. months during period of low water level. Since 2004, new bridge on Katima Mulilo. Kazungula crossing is operating all year but with problems of shallow water at the landing site. Tourism activity is developed on Zambezi and Chobe rivers. Lack of bathymetric data and depths profiles. Middle Basin (from Kafue Navigation on Lake Kariba is developed both for Zambia Low water level during drought period has created problems to Luangwa, 7 to 5) and Zimbabwe. with too shallow water at the shore line mainly on Zimba- bwean side of Lake Kariba. Lack of bathymetric data and depths profiles. Lower Basin (from Mupata Navigation in Lake Cahora Bassa is increasing. Section between Lupata Gorge to Mutarara is most critical, to Zambezi Delta, 4 to 1) with strong current between Lupata and Chiramba. A recent ferry crossing was put into operation between Luangwa (Zambia) and Kanyemba (Zimbabwe). Upper Shire upstream Liwonde reservoir has natural barriers of sand banks. Rapids are present in the central Shire River Navigation on Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa has long tradi- from Matopo Bridge to Muchirson. tion and involves several countries (Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique). Navigation in Lower Shire is affected by low water level, lack of dredging and presence of water weeds. Section downstream Mphanda Nkuwa site is navigable until Chinde on the Indian Ocean. Navigation on Zambezi River downstream of Cahora Bassa depends of high flows with potential competitive use with other sector. Use of port of Chinde has been restricted due to changes of tracks and depths of the entrance channels. Lack of bathymetric data and depths profiles. 140 Beneficial Uses of Water · Construction and rehabilitation of the road · Construction of the Caia bridge (Mozambique) from Nkhatabay through Mzimba into Zambia, which will replace ferry transport; Rwanda, and Burundi; and · Construction of the Katima Mulilo bridge (built · Construction of the road from Nsanje to Chi- in 2004); romo and Thyolo. · Creation of ferry crossing between Luangwa and Kanyemba; and The following benefits are projected: · A second bridge in Tete. · Provide Malawi and Zambia--otherwise land- In 2004, the Brazilian company CVRD was locked countries--with direct access to the sea granted the concession of the Moatize coal mine and global economy; for 25 years. Eighty percent of the production is · Reduce costs of goods and services for land- aimed for export as coke coal and a thermal power locked countries like Malawi and Zambia--by plant between 750­1,500 MW is to be constructed, at least 60 percent based on preliminary esti- with a 120 km transmission line between Matambo mates; and and Songo. Among other investment in the mine, · Contribute to the NEPAD objective on infrastruc- the company envisages the construction of a port ture development as a pillar for accelerating eco- terminal and a new section of railroad. Develop- nomic growth and poverty reduction in Africa. ment of navigation is also an alternative to the railroad, which will not be sufficient to absorb all Other recent or ongoing initiatives have im- coal production. proved the conditions of transportation in the Zambezi River Basin, including: Table 3.103. Navigation ­ opportunities and constraints Subbasin Opportunities Constraints Upper Basin (from Trade along the north south routes is increasing in the region and Increase of water abstraction upstream that will reduce Kabompo to Cuando/ used ferries crossings, especially for international borders (Katima flow water level. Chobe, 13 to 8) Mulilo between Namibia and Zambia, Kazungura). Middle Basin (from Kafue Regular commercial navigation on Lake Kariba is servicing small Increase of water abstraction upstream that will reduce to Luangwa, 7 to 5) communities in Zambia and Zimbabwe. flow water level. Opportunity of tourism development on Lake Kariba. Lower Basin (from Trade along the north south routes is increasing in the region as Navigation on Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa, though Mupata to Zambezi is the use of ferries crossings, especially at international borders earlier well developed has been declining due to Delta, 4 to 1) (Luangwa-Zambia/Kanyemba-Zimbabwe). improvement of road and low water level. Opportunity of tourism development on Lake Cahora Bassa. Water weeds are drained into the Zambezi from the Shire River. Presence of Sena Sugar State Company that had a fluvial fleet in the past. Navigation on Shire-Zambezi River suffers from concurrence with other transport (railways), especially Existence of NEPAD's initiative: "Shire-Zambezi Waterways devel- with the rehabilitation of the Sena railway line and the opment Project" between Nsanje (Malawi) and Chinde (Zambezi arrival of its Malawi extension in Nsanje. delta in Mozambique). Changes of geomorphological conditions of the river. Caia Bridge is being constructed across Zambezi river may replace ferry crossings. Increase of water abstraction upstream that will reduce flow water level. It is expected that the railroad to be constructed by CVRD (coal mine in Moatize) will not be capable to absorb all the coal pro- Reduction of water releases in dry season. duction and developing the navigation is an alternative. 141 Figure 3.11. Navigation in the Zambezi River Basin Mbeya DE M O C R AT I C R E P U B L I C OF CONGO TANZ ANIA A NG OL A ZAMBIA Songea ez i Mzuzu 12 mb Lubumbashi Za Luena 2 Chavuma ferry (Angolan Zambian border) 13 Solwezi Navigation on 5 Lake Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa Malawi/ 11 Ndola Niassa/ 7 Nyasa Lichinga Zambezi town a Chipata MALAWI ferry (Zambia) gw MOZ AMBIQUE The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis an LILONGWE Lu 10 Kafue Kabwe 142 Ferry crossing between Luangwa Mongu ferry Ferry crossing at (Zambia) and Kanyemba (Zimbabwe) In the past, traffic between Nsanje (Zambia) Nmawala (Kafue Flats) (Malawi) to Chinde (Mozambique) Mongu Lake 8 LUSAKA Cahora Bassa Kalongola-Senanga 9 4 Blantyre ferry (Zambia) Ferry crossing a Navigation on Tete Z am Ngowbe (Kafue river) Lake Cahora Bassa be Ferry crossing on the Shire River z i Choma (Mutuara-Morrombala) Bridge constructed in 2004-Katima Mulilo Lake 3 (Nambian Zambian border) Kariba bridge project Navigation on Lake Kariba HARARE Livingstone Quelimane Kasane Kazungula ferry Bridge at 6 1 (Botswanan-Zambian border) S ha nga ni Caia (Mozambique) SUB-BASINS: 7 KAFUE Mutare 1 ZAMBEZI DELTA 8 CUANDO/CHOBE Gweru NAM I BI A 2 TETE 9 BAROTSE Beira 3 SHIRE RIVER & LAKE 10 LUANGINGA B OT S WA N A Bulawayo ZIMBABWE INDIAN MALAWI/NIASSA/NYASA 4 MUPATA OCEAN 11 LUNGÚE BUNGO 0 100 200 Downstream of Cahora Bassa Dam, Zambezi River 5 LUANGWA 12 UPPER ZAMBEZI used to transport local molasses and construction KILOMETERS materials, as well as supporting coal mining at Moatize. 6 KARIBA 13 KABOMPO July 2010 IBRD 37953 Source: Conservation International 2008. Beneficial Uses of Water 3.7 MunicipalandindusTrial Table 3.105. Industrial water use by main waTersupply urban areas (m3/day) Total industrial water supply 98,615 3.7.1 domesticwateruse Net industrial water use 68,182 A portion of the water used by domestic and urban users in the Zambezi River Basin is derived from groundwater sources. Because groundwater is not overused at basin level, it does not have a signifi- water use and wastewater discharges from these cant direct impact on the Zambezi Watercourse and industries and their water use is therefore estimated its tributaries. Since reliable data on domestic and using the following information, estimates, and institutional water use is not readily available from assumptions: most urban centers in the Zambezi River Basin, water use figures had to be estimated and modeled · A list of industries for each town (see for more (which also provides estimates for effluent genera- details Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007); tion). The following assumptions had to be made: · Particular attention is given to industries that current net urban water use (taking into account use comparatively more water than others (`wet return flows and water use by service businesses) industries'); is 85 liters per day per capita; per capita rural water · Industrial water demand in each town is esti- use is 20 liters per day; and surface water provides mated as a percentage of total demand of all 90 percent of the urban water supply and 15 percent urban water users; of the rural water supply. Based on these assump- · Losses due to abstraction, treatment, and reticu- tions and 2005­2006 population data, urban water lation are estimated at 30 percent; use was estimated to be 175 million m3 per year · Losses from the sewers are estimated at 10 and rural water use was estimated to be 24 million percent; and m3 per year. · Estimates were made to account for the frac- tion of wastewater returned to the watercourse 3.7.2 industrialandminingwateruse after losses in treatment and irrigation of final effluent and the fraction discharged to open A number of urban centers in the Zambezi River drains. Basin have significant industrial and commercial activity other than mining (Euroconsult Mott Based on these estimates, net industrial water MacDonald 2007). Particular urban areas with use is less than 70,000 m3 per day (25 million m3 high concentration of industrial activity include per year). This is rather insignificant compared Kitwe, Ndola, Lusaka, and Kafue in Zambia; and to total water supply. A major portion of the used Bulawayo, Gweru, Kwe Kwe, Harare in Zimbabwe industrial water is returned to the watercourse as (table 3.105.). There is very little reliable data for treated wastewater. Table 3.104. Rural and urban water use (2005­2006) Per capita consumption/ Total consumption Population 2005/2006 day (liters) Surface water (%) (million m3) Urban 7,602,200 70 90 175 Rural 22,366,800 20 15 24 Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007. 143 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis 3.7.3 identifiedprojectsofinterest and power plant cooling is estimated at 100 liters per second. Botswana: the Chobe-Zambezi Water Other mining projects have been identified in Transfer Scheme Zambia, but their studies are not sufficiently ad- vanced to include estimates of water consumption. Rapid growth has led to rising water demand in the Those projects include: main population centers throughout Botswana, in particular the greater Gaborone area. The govern- · Because mining activity in the Copperbelt fluc- ment--through the Ministry of Minerals Energy tuates with global metal prices, so will the water and Water Resources (MMEWR), Department of abstraction or mine dewatering for mines. Water Affairs (DWA)--therefore commissioned a · The Kangaluwi Copper/Gold Project, located study to investigate the feasibility of water abstrac- inside the Lower Zambezi National Park. It is tion from the Chobe-Zambezi River system near believed to be a potentially "world class open Kazungula/Kasane Area in Chobe District (WRC pit copper deposit" and is the site of rapidly ex- 2009). Via a pipeline, the water would be moved to panding exploration, including a major resource the Dikgatlhong reservoir. An estimated 800 million drill out project during 2008 and 2009. m3 per year of water will be made available to meet · The Cheowa Copper/Gold Project, located in the domestic, industrial, mining, and agricultural the Chiawa Game Management Area (GMA). water demands within Botswana by 2020. This is a joint venture with Glencore Interna- The review of Botswana National Water Master tional (now combined with the Chongwe Cop- Plan recommended commissioning of the Chobe- perbelt Project. The Chumbwe and Mpande Zambezi Transfer Scheme by 2022 (SMEC and areas, also located in the Chiawa GMA, are EHES 2006). Botswana currently requires about included in a Uranium Joint Venture with Lithic 500 million m3 per year (20 m3 per second) from the Metals and Energy, along with Mulungushi and Zambezi River for agricultural purposes, mainly Rufunsa licenses. for the Zambezi Integrated Agro-Commercial · The Mulofwe Project is located in the river Development Project. Given the deficit of water in catchment above the Chiawa GMA and LZNP. urban centers, however, Botswana water require- This is a Uranium Joint Venture with Rio Tinto ments will increase drastically. To meet that need, Zinc. Botswana would require implementation of the · A mining operation in Siavonga in the catch- Chobe-Zambezi Water Transfer Scheme between ment directly above Lake Kariba. 2011 and 2020. The proposed water transfer scheme is expected to link up with the existing North-South Zimbabwe: water transfer and abstractions Carrier Water Project (WRC 2009). Abstractions from Lake Kariba include cooling Zambia: water transfer and abstractions water for the planned 1,400 MW Gokwe coal-fired power plant in Zimbabwe whose water consump- There is a proposal to withdraw an additional tion (including that for coal processing) is estimated 500,000 m3 per day (six m3 per second) from the at 18 m3 per second. Kafue River through a pipeline to supply water The city of Bulawayo in southern Zimbabwe to Lusaka (Republic of Zambia 2008). Water with- is supplied by a dam on the Munyati River near drawal from Lake Kariba for the Maamba Colliery its confluence with the Sanyati River. In dry years, coal mine in southern Zambia is also under con- however, storage in the dam is insufficient to satisfy sideration. The recently completed power genera- demand from Bulawayo. A project has therefore tion planning exercise also includes a proposal to been proposed to pump water from Lake Kariba extend mining operations to feed a 200 MW coal- into the dam to supplement the withdrawal deficit. fired thermal plant (Chubu Electric Power Co. Ltd. A feasibility study for this project was completed in 2009). Water consumption of the mining operation 1996 (SWECO 1996). 144 Beneficial Uses of Water Mozambique: Moatize and Benga coal or streams. While most of the cities in the Zambezi mines and coal-fired thermal power plants River Basin have sewage treatment works, they are not technically advanced, and there is great need According to consultation with GPZ and ARA- for improvement and upgrading. Water treatment Sul in November 2008, the Moatize coal mine is in the city of Lusaka, with a population in excess of planning water abstraction of between nine and one million, is a serious concern. There are no sew- 18 m3 per second from the Zambezi River. The age treatment facilities and waste is discharged into Brazilian company Vale was granted the conces- the Kafue River. Other significant towns without sion of Moatize coal mine in 2004 for a period of 25 treatment facilities include Kafue and Livingstone. years. The mine should enter production 2010. The Very few of the small towns and villages have treat- project also includes a thermal power plant with ment facilities. an installed capacity of 2,400 MW and a 120 km Untreated domestic sewage primarily causes transmission line between Matambo and Songo. The problems such as eutrophication. The nutrient load estimated water consumption of the mine and the (nitrates and phosphates) increases and remains very power plant is 1.4 m3 per second, which suggests high, negatively affecting the balance of phytoplank- that most of the planned water abstraction will be ton assemblages among others. Certain algae and used for plant cooling of which most returns to the vegetation such as hyacinth grow disproportionally river. The company also envisages the construction in size and magnitude which in turn, contributes to a of a port terminal and a new section of railroad. It reduction in oxygen levels. Furthermore, the organic is expected that the railroad will not be capable of content of sewage is broken down by bacteria, a pro- absorbing all the coal production. cess which also depletes oxygen. With lower levels of Riversdale Mining, an Australian company as- oxygen and unhealthy phytoplankton assemblages, sociated with TATA, is also preparing investment in whole aquatic food chains and interdependent eco- the Benga coal mine and a 2,000 MW coal-fired ther- systems deteriorate. Although eutrophication is not moelectric power plant. Overall water consumption a direct health hazard to humans (but occasionally of the project is estimated at 1.1 m3 per second. for some livestock) it also becomes a nuisance. Over- growth of algae can clog water distribution systems used for irrigation while hyacinth present on Lake 3.8 waTerqualiTy Kariba for example, can be detrimental to fishing and tourism. Some algae can lead to bad tastes and odors Across the Zambezi River Basin, understanding and in water and removing these is very costly. There protecting the quality of water is crucial for its differ- is no evidence that nutrient pollution has reached ent uses and in planning water resources projects-- problematic levels in the Zambezi River Basin on the whether it is for drinking water, industrial use, whole and the problems tend to be geographically irrigation purposes or for sustaining diverse and limited to particular areas. irreplaceable ecosystems. Water quality problems One of the most serious implications of un- range in magnitude, form and source in the ZRB. treated domestic sewage in the region is the risk of The major sources of pollution include contamina- waterborne disease such as cholera and typhoid. tion from domestic waste, agriculture, the mining Across Sub-Saharan Africa, under five mortality sector, and industries. Degraded water quality has rate is 144 per every 1,000 births (compared to eight widespread economic and environmental impacts, in every thousand in the USA). Twenty percent of and often poses a direct threat to human and animal these deaths are attributed to diarrhea caused by health if not managed. waterborne diseases. An important intervention is to disinfect effluents discharged into rivers, but this 3.8.1 pollutionfromdomesticwaste does not appear to be done in the Basin. An indicator of contamination is the presence of e. coli bacteria. Pollution from domestic waste results from the dis- Provided the e. coli count is within the WHO (World posal of sewage, whether treated or not, into river Health Organization) guideline limits, the risk of 145 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis disease is minimal. While it is clear that sanitation, sewage treatment, and the disposal of effluent is far Table 3.106. Urban cities and towns in the Zambezi from adequate in the Zambezi River Basin, there is River Basin little evidence that this is causing waterborne dis- Country Subbasin Urban center Population ease at basin level. This is most likely because the Zambia Kafue (7) Chingola 164,600 high flow levels, in most tributaries in the Basin, Chililabombwe 60,900 adequately dilutes the effluent. Developments that Mufulira 136,600 decrease dilution, especially consumptive use such as irrigation, will decrease this process of dilution Kitwe 406,100 and hence increase the risk of waterborne disease. Luangshya 129,100 This needs to be accounted for when considering Ndola 418,400 irrigation development options. Lusaka 1,211,100 A general indication of domestic waste issues Kafue 51,200 can be obtained from population estimates and Kariba (6) Livingstone 108,900 distributions in the Basin. According to Euroconsult Luangwa (5) Chipata 81,600 Mott MacDonald (2007) the population in the Basin Kabwe 197,400 amounts to approximately 30 million and the esti- Zimbabwe Kariba (6) Hwange 58,700 mated water use as 199 million m3 per year. Table 3.106. lists the major urban cities and towns in the Bulawayo 1,003,700 Zambezi River Basin together with the size of esti- Gweru 157,500 mated population, totaling approximately 7.6 million. Kwe Kwe 81,500 The Sector Study Report of 1998 (Denconsult Kadoma 110,300 1998e) estimates water supplied to those cities at Chegutu 40,200 217 million m3 per year, of which approximately 39 Malawi Shire River and Lilongwe 521,800 percent is delivered to treatment plants. Of the sew- Lake Malawi/ Blantyre 562,400 age treated, approximately 78 percent is discharged Niassa/Nyasa (3) into watercourses. In other words, an estimated 66 Zimbabwe Tete (2) Harare 1,976,400 million m3 is discharged into watercourses annually. Mozambique Tete (2) Tete 123,800 This needs to be seen in the context of the flow in Total 7,602,200 the Zambezi River, which is estimated at 107 billion Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007. m3 in total. According to earlier publications (Denconsult 1998e), the cities of Bulawayo and Harare are de- lettuce which is known to accumulate heavy metals, scribed as having adequate treatment plants and posing a serious health risk for Zimbabweans who that effluent discharged from Bulawayo into the rely on locally produced fresh produce. Gwayi River and from Harare into the Manyame River are of adequate standards. However, more re- 3.8.2 pollutionfromtheagriculturesector cent reports (Nyamangara and others 2008) indicate that due to the economic collapse of Zimbabwe, the An estimated 5.2 million hectares of the Zambezi sewage treatment plants are not always operational River Basin is cultivated for agriculture (irrigated resulting in untreated or partially treated sewage and dry-land), of which about 80 percent lie within being discharged directly into the watercourses in Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The Harare. In addition, small industries are discharging majority of cultivated crops is made up of maize, industrial effluent into rivers since the fines imposed cotton, cassava, oil seeds, and sugar cane. Much are less than the cost of treating the effluent. The of the agriculture takes place at a subsistence level water in the streams is concurrently used for irri- where the use of fertilizers is limited. gating the crops cultivated alongside these rivers. Pollution from agriculture is due mostly to This has resulted in problems such as cultivation of unsuitable application of fertilizers. During rain- 146 Beneficial Uses of Water fall, some of the fertilizer can be washed out into quality problems through dewatering. The water streams and rivers. Also, where crops are irrigated, pumped out of the mine is often contaminated with over-irrigation or over-application of fertilizer can blasting debris. Heavy metals and other compounds result in the fertilizer leaching out of the soil and of the oxidation process are of great concern. This entering rivers and streams with the base-flow. is often referred to acid mine drainage (AMD) and Inefficient irrigation practices, such as flood irriga- occurs when there are sulfites in the rock being tion, also contribute significantly to pollution from mined. Contact with oxygen and water form sulfuric agriculture. Fertilizers are essentially nutrients acid, which then dissolves a range of metals out of (phosphates and nitrates), which will contribute to the rock. Toxic metals such as lead, mercury, and the eutrophication processes. arsenic are found in AMD. Unless treated properly In addition to fertilizers, insecticide and herbi- before being discharged into the river, this can have cide applied to crops can also be a source of pollu- a long-term detrimental effect on the environment tion. Modern insecticides and herbicides can break and human health. Deep mining activities in the down very rapidly on contact with water. Zambezi River Basin include the extraction of gold, platinum, chrome, and copper. AMD is associated 3.8.3 pollutionfromtheminingsector with all these types of mining. Water quality is an increasing concern, par- The pollution from mines is highly variable and de- ticularly in the Kafue River Basin. The river also pends not only on the type of mineral being mined provides domestic water supply to over 40 percent but also the type of mining practiced. Surface min- of the Zambian population. In Zambia's Copperbelt ing, such as strip mining or open cast mining, can Province lies the mineral rich area the Copperbelt, have a big impact if rainfall is allowed to drain from of which much falls within the Kafue River Basin. these areas into rivers. Deep mining creates water Heavy metals such as copper, manganese, and lead Table 3.107. Water quality in the Kafue River Catchment Average value ECZ Surface water Groundwater Regulation Nakambala Kafue Fish Kafue Nitrogen Parameters Limits Kafue River Discharge Estate Farm Sewage chemicals Temperature (ºC) 40 23.40 23.40 25.50 23.90 25.10 25.60 pH 6­9 7.12 7.71 7.11 7.00 6.69 6.80 Conductivity (µS) 4,300 225.00 485.00 1,613.00 2,109.00 595.00 1,791.00 D.O (mg/l) 5 2.32 3.90 1.52 1.60 0.75 1.30 Ammonia (mg/l) 10 0.31 0.61 0.50 1.60 0.27 0.50 Nitrates (mg/l) 50 11.10 36.00 51.00 73.80 15.60 30.20 Phosphorus (mg/l) 1 0.33 1.64 1.40 2.07 1.84 2.12 Potassium (mg/l) NR 2.97 18.60 20.00 17.60 14.90 19.20 Calcium (mg/l) NR 28.90 56.90 166.00 121.00 37.30 105.00 Magnesium (mg/l) 500 13.10 26.90 88.80 79.00 46.90 79.80 Iron (mg/l) 2 0.22 0.61 n/a n/a n/a n/a COD (mg/l) 90 75.00 137.00 113.00 1,043.00 86.00 110.00 BOD (mg/l) 50 10.00 51.00 14.00 150.00 16.00 28.00 Source: Environmental Council of Zambia 2000. NR = No ECZ Regulations; n/a = Not analyzed. 147 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis have been detected in many rivers and streams, · Gaseous and solid emissions from smelters; in particularly the Kafue River and its tributaries. · Dust from dry parts of tailing impoundments; Within the region, the area occupied by tailings and dams, waste rock dumps, and highly contaminated · Dust from mining operation, processing plants, soils has been estimated at 78 km2. New mines and slag deposits. and those older ones still operating, along with their associated metallurgical treatment plants and The main sources of pollution in streams are: smelters, continue to add their wastes to the sur- face environment. Mining-related and industrial · Industrial water discharged into the watercourse; contamination of surface waters results from four · Seepage and overflow from tailing impound- processes: washout of fine particles from dumps and ments; and ore processing plants; overflow of water from tailing · Erosion and washout of fine-grained particles facilities; seepage of water through tailings dams, from spoil banks and tailing impoundments and/or outflow as a result of embankment failure; (siltation). and the drainage of process waters from smelters and acid plants, both systematically and through Figure 3.12. is a map of mercury contamination equipment failure or mismanagement of operation. in the central and northern parts of the Copperbelt Despite the concerns regarding possible heavy Province. As shown on the map, concentrations metal pollution from Copperbelt mines, until above 0.06 parts per million are not uncommon. recently there has been little data to suggest that Results of the environmental and geochemical this is in fact a problem. This is because the envi- mapping of the study area are presented in table 3.108. ronmental degradation was poorly quantified in Several concentrations exceed the national spatial term since the availability of accurate and limits. The main conclusions of the investigation up-to-date regional geochemical data for both r by K íbek et al. (2007) are that: unpolluted and polluted areas has been limited. This deficiency has been remedied recently by a · Main sources of contamination of terrestrial comprehensive investigation of geochemical data systems (soils and vegetation) are ascribed to and the extent of industrial pollution in the Central- dust fallout from smelters, crushers, and dry Northern part of the Copperbelt province of Zambia beaches of tailing impoundments. (the area where most mines are located around · Contamination of surface waters and stream Kitwe, Kalulushi, Chambishi, Chingola, Mufulira, sediments is ascribed to siltation that results and Chililabombwe) and by the publication of an from washout of fine particles from dumps and environmental and geochemical atlas of the study ore-processing plants, overflow from tailing r area in 2007 (K íbek, Majer, and Nyambe 2007). The facilities, leakage of water through the tailing atlas presents a series of maps for the study area facilities, and the drainage of technological that include: water from smelters and acid plants. · Concentrations of Arsenic (As), Cobalt (Co), · Concentrations of total sulphur, arsenic, cobalt, Copper (Cu), Mercury element (Hg), Lead copper, mercury, lead, zinc, chromium, nickel, (Pb), Zinc (Zn), Sulfur (S) and Selenium (Se) in and vanadium in surface and sub-surface soils; surface soils are usually higher when compared · Coefficients of industrial pollution in surface with subsurface soils. These elements reflect an soils; extent of industrial contamination. · Trace metals in agricultural plants; and · Contents of heavy metals in agricultural plants · Coefficient of industrial pollution of stream depend on anthropogenic contamination and sediments. bedrock geochemistry. In less contaminated areas, cassava and sweet potato leaves are con- The main sources of anthropogenic contamina- taminated. In heavily contaminated areas, heavy tion in the soils and plants are: metal concentrations also increase in roots. 148 Beneficial Uses of Water Figure 3.12. Mercury concentrations in central and north Copperbelt DUMP PONDS D E M O CRATIC REPUBLIC DISTRICT HEADQUARTERS OF CONGO MAIN CITIES AND TOWNS Konkola MAIN RAILROADS INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES Chililabombwe Kamenza Butondo Nchanga North Kankoyo Mufulira Kantanshi Chingola Nchanga South Lulamba ZAMBIA d ne do e an tiv Ab SURFACE SOIL: Mindolo Ac ppm SMELTER Miseshi Kitwe 0.060 Chachacha SHAFT, ACTIVE 0.035 Twibukishe OPEN PIT, ACTIVE Nkana West Natwange 0.020 0.015 TAILING FACILITIES: Kalulushi Wusakili 0.010 PADDOCK DUMP, ACTIVE 0 5 10 0.007 VALLEY DUMP, ACTIVE KILOMETERS IBRD 37954 July 2010 Source: Kribek, B., V. Majer, and I. Nyambe 2007. Table 3.108. Contamination in the Copperbelt pH AI Ca Cd Co Cu Mn Ni Pb SO4 Se U Zn ppb ppm ppb ppb ppb ppb ppb ppb ppm ppb ppb ppb EU limit 6­8 1,500 250 1 10 30 500 50 15 300 5 50 200 Zambia limit 6­9 2,500 500 1,000 1,500 1,000 500 500 1,500 20 10,000 Chambeshi 3.62 6,929 709 2.06 29,528 16,442 8,673 1,776 317 2,617 37.8 99 1,741 Busakile 2.04 2,115 197 7.02 909 7,405 466 51.5 161 1,396 13.0 5.25 346 Copperbelt 7.04 25.4 27.5 <0.04 1.4 7.5 28.1 0.64 1.19 4 <0.5 <0.02 12.9 Uncontaminated Source: Environmental-Geochemical Mapping Surface Water Chemistry Central-Northern Part of Copperbelt Province of Zambia. Kribek, B., V. Majer, and I. Nyambe 2007. Light shade = EU permissible concentrations of pollutants and Copperbelt unspoilt conditions; White shade = Zambia permissible limits; Dark shade = over the limits 149 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis r However, the K íbek et al. (2007) investigation of amount of industries in the areas in which mining industrial pollution does not cover the general area occurs, there is no specific data on the pollution of Kabwe, an industrial town located in the Cop- generated by these particular industries. perbelt south of the study area considered in this The water use by a collection of main industries section. Yet Kabwe is considered by the Blacksmith was estimated by the Sector Study (Denconsult Institute as one of the 10 most polluted cities on the 1998e) to be approximately 31 million m3 per year, planet. Lead poisoning is particularly prevalent in which results in 13 million m3 of effluent being dis- this city which has a population of 300,000.20 The charged into water courses each year. The report by Blacksmith Institute urged the World Bank to pro- Beilfuss and Brown (2006) also expressed concern vide significant funding to remove toxic lead from as to the effluent discharged into the Zambezi River the soil in Kabwe as its population was severely by the Sugar Mill located at Marromeu in the Delta. sick and incapacitated from chronic lead exposure. However, there is no data to suggest that this in fact Heavy metals are also easily taken up by biota a problem. The flow in the Delta very seldom drops during respiration as well as from sediments by below 400 m3 per second, and hence the effluent bottom feeders. Excessive heavy metals are toxic will be sufficiently diluted so as not to have any to most life forms and as they move through the discernable impact. food chain, heavy metals accumulated in aquatic Table 3.109. gives a very rough overview of species (mostly fish). In turn, these accumulate in some of the main types of industries found in the the human population, resulting in serious health Zambezi River Basin and the type of waste that is problems. There is no evidence that the heavy metal typically associated with them. pollution from mining activities has progressed to this stage, but monitoring must be established to 3.8.5 additionalwaterqualityissues ensure that this does not happen. The report by Beilfuss and Brown (2006) mentions 3.8.4 pollutionfromtheindustrialsector two other water quality-related issues. First, the trapping of sediment in Lake Kariba and Lake Ca- Industrial pollution of water ranges from nutrients hora Bassa is changing the natural sediment loads already present due to agriculture and domestic in the lower Zambezi River which results in the pollution, to heavy metals normally associated degradation of the coastal shelf, erosion of river with mining activities. Sulfate and sulfides often banks, and decreased supply of micro nutrients to associated with metal processing and hydrocarbons the Delta. Secondly, decreased flows contribute to from oil refineries and the motor industry are typi- the intrusion of salts and increased salinity in the cally problematic. Although there are a significant Delta's water as outlined earlier. Farmers on the Table 3.109. Industrial waste in the Zambezi River Basin Subbasin Type of industry Typical waste/pollution challenge Kafue (7) Breweries, oil processing, lead batteries, paint, paper, Biochemical oxygen demand, organic, solvents, galvanization, tannery, chemical processing, textiles, heavy metals, petroleum waste, zinc slurry, and and sugar. nutrients. Kariba (6) Breweries, oil processing, tannery, chemical process- Biochemical oxygen demand, nutrients, chro- ing, textiles, sugar mill, iron and steel, and metallurgy. mium sludge, heavy metals, and organic solvents. Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa (2) Sugar mill. Biochemical oxygen demand, and nutrients. Zambezi Delta (1) Sugar mill. Biochemical oxygen demand, and nutrients. 20 For more information, see: www.blacksmithinstitute.org/projects/regions/africa. 150 Beneficial Uses of Water Delta have reported that the water in the Zambezi and oversight of water quality monitoring. As part River in increasingly saline, and there is evidence of the ZRA's environmental monitoring program, of a buildup of salts on irrigated lands. Under natu- water is regularly collected at 22 sites for testing a ral conditions these salts would be flushed out by series of parameters (some every month, every six floods that would inundate the flood plain. month or once a year). While the ZRA is a bilateral An additional pollution related challenge in organization addressing the needs of both Zambia the ZRB, and possibly most visible impact of pol- and Zimbabwe with regard to the management lution, is the growth of water hyacinth. The water of the joint water resources of the Zambezi River, hyacinth flourishes in nutrient enriched water and monitoring carried out by the ZRA benefits both is a particular problem on Lake Kariba. While it is upstream and downstream parts of the ZRB. now under control, the governments of Zambia and The water quality monitoring network initially Zimbabwe considered it to be a national emergency only monitored quality within Lake Kariba. The in 1998 when it was at its worst (ZRA 2002). Water network is now being extended to include all the hyacinth first appeared in the mid-1980s. Thick mats points indicated on the map presented in figure 3.14. started to form in 1994, and in 1997 access to some ZRA performs two levels of water quality moni- harbors was blocked off. This impaired the fishing toring. The first involves measuring pH, Conductiv- and ecotourism industries (ZRA 2002). There was ity, total suspended solids, nitrate and sulfate. The also concern that the hyacinth would block the testing is carried out four times a month at Chavuma inlets to hydropower plants. In 1998 a committee and Lungwebungu (Zambian name for the Lungúe was formed to address the problem, and with a Bungo River), and once a month at Victoria Falls combination of herbicides, biological control, and and downstream of Lake Kariba. The second level mechanical control, the areas covered by the water monitoring includes testing for arsenic, cadmium, hyacinth on Lake Kariba have decreased substan- cyanide, lead, mercury, and zinc, and is performed tially from the peak in 1998 (see figure 3.13.). four times a year at Deka (on the Deka River), Gwai (Gwai River), Sanyati (Sanyati River), Kafue Park, 3.8.6 waterqualitymanagement Kafue Town and Kafue Ferry (Kafue River), and Luangwa (Zambezi River). The mission of the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) According to the Euroconsult Mott MacDonald is to cooperatively manage and develop the water Report (2007), most major rivers in Malawi are mon- resources of the Zambezi River Basin (IRB-BRL- itored for biochemical oxygen demand and nitrate. ZRA 2004). The ZRA manages the Kariba Dam According to Beilfuss and Brown (2006), there is no and Lake complex, including the management water quality monitoring in Mozambique. The IWRM Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin (ZAMSTRAT 2008) identifies improving basin-wide collection and in- Figure 3.13. Estimated area covered with water formation exchange as one of key strategic actions. hyacinth on Lake Kariba It also identifies the following challenges: 2,000 1,800 · More and more non-state actors are collecting 1,600 data but not are sharing them; 1,400 Area of hyacinth (ha) 1,200 · Data collection systems in most Zambezi River 1,000 Basin countries are in a state of deterioration 800 due to non-repair of gauging stations; 600 400 · Hydrological agencies often have insufficient 200 financial and human resources even to maintain 0 regular data collection. In some cases backlog 1995 1997 1999 2001 of data is not processed; Source: ZRA 2002. · Vandalism of hydro-meteorological stations; 151 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 3.14. Water quality monitoring network of the Zambezi River Authority (2008) TANZA N I A AN G O L A D E M O C R ATIC REPUBLIC O F CONGO i ez mb Za Lake MOZAMBIQUE Malawi/ Niassa/ Chavuma Nyasa MALAWI Lungúe Bungo Watopa ZAMBIA LILONGWE Kalabo Lukulu Kasamba Kafue Hook Luangwa Lake Mezi LUSAKA Cahora Bassa Cahora Bassa Matongo Platform Kafue Town Kafue Ferry Senanga am Dam Z be Ngonye zi Kanzinze Uma Sanyati Sesheke Kalomo Zongwe Za Nanasi Farm Lake HARARE ez m Kariba b i Maoma Gwai Victoria Falls NAM I B I A ZIMBABWE INDIAN B O T S WANA OCEAN 0 100 200 IBRD 37955 July 2010 KILOMETERS Source: IRB-BRL-ZRA 2004. · Groundwater monitoring networks are sparse; The water quality standards adopted by the and eight riparian countries are presented in table · Functioning water quality stations are scarce. 3.110. The Strategy recommends the following actions: 3.8.7 conclusion · Improve data collection, with priority to water Although the large flows within the Zambezi River quality data near hotspots and groundwater Basin provide extensive natural dilution, there are data; some key areas of concern. These are: · Generally overhaul gauging stations especially near abstractions and transfers; · Effluents and mine drainage in the Copperbelt · Develop and establish early-warning system Province is thought to enter the waterways but for extreme events; more data and research assessing both extent · Develop ZAMWIS as a regional tool for shar- and impact of these sources for pollution is ing and aligning data and warning procedures; urgently needed. Monitoring the pollutants and is particularly important as the Kafue River · Develop water resource models and decision Basin concurrently supplies almost half of the support tools. domestic water in Zambia. 152 Beneficial Uses of Water Table 3.110. Water and effluent quality in some basin countries Country Water quality/effluent standards Botswana Botswana Bureau of Standards BOS 32: 2000, Water Quality--Drinking Water--Specification Botswana Bureau of Standards BOS 93: 2004: Standard to Discharge Waste Water into the Environment Malawi Malawi Bureau of Standards WHO Drinking Water Quality Guidelines, 1993; Tanzania Second schedule of the Water Utilization (Control and Regulation) Act (1984) WHO Drinking Water Quality Guidelines, 1993; Zambia Quality of Trade Effluent into a Public Sewer, Local Administration Regulation Act (No. 161), 1985; Wastewater Regulations into an Aquatic Environment, 1993, prepared by the Environmental Council of Zambia; Zambian Standard Specification for Drinking Water Quality, prepared by the Zambia Bureau of Standards WHO Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality, 1993 Australian Summary Guidelines for Protection of Aquatic Ecosystems. ZRA Water Quality Guidelines, 2002 Zimbabwe ZRA Water Quality Guidelines, 2002 Source: IRB-BRL-ZRA 2004. · Nutrients accumulating in parts of the catch- growth of water hyacinth blocking the intake works ment area, especially originating from farm- of hydropower turbines. The development of irriga- ing in Zimbabwe, induce excessive growth of tion systems can be impaired if the total dissolved water hyacinth on Lake Kariba. The problem is solids (TDS) of the water is too high and the rate deemed to be significantly resolved though the of crop production decreases as a result. Although need for control measures remains. a high nutrient load in the water can be beneficial · Domestic and industrial effluent is not treated to crops, problems arise when excess algae growth to acceptable standards before being discharged enters the irrigation systems causing blockages, into rivers and watercourses. This is the main reducing water distribution and increases main- cause of the hyacinth growth on Lake Kariba. tenance and repair costs. The TDS of water in the The lack of adequate water sanitation can result Zambezi River is low enough to not be a problem at in health problems, but there is no evidence that the time of the MSIOA Study. Although hydropower this is currently a problem. development is unlikely to negatively affect water quality directly, it changes flow regimes and higher Overall, water quality problems pose few criti- concentrations of pollutants could theoretically re- cal challenges on development of hydropower and sult in the receiving stream during periods of low irrigation in the ZRB. New hydropower plants will or zero power generation. Large-scale irrigation largely be unaffected by water quality problems, development, on the other hand, is likely to result with the one possible exception being excessive in increased nutrients being discharged into rivers. 153 4 Regional Cooperation 4.1 regionaleconoMiccoMMuniTies Across Africa, Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have made progress particularly in the area of market integration, infrastructure cooperation, and resource sharing. Increased intraregional trade and improvements in international competitiveness are key com- mon objectives among Africa's integration arrangements such as ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), CEMAC (Central African Economic and Monetary Community), EAC (East African Community) and COMESA (Common Market for East and Southern Africa). COMESA is a preferential trade zone stretching from Liberia to Zimbabwe, within which is a free trade zone where members have either eliminated or working towards eliminating tariffs on products originating in the zone. The Southern Africa Cus- toms Union (SACU) is the world's oldest customs union originating from 1910, today incorporating Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland. Trade facilitating measures are being agreed and implemented among many of the continents RECs, harmonizing trade and trade-related regimes. In 1992, SADC (Southern African Development Community) grew out of SADCC (Southern African Development Coordination Conference) which was originally created in 1980. The vision of SADC is "a common future, within a regional community that will ensure economic well-being, improvement of the standards of living and quality of life, freedom and social justice; peace and security for the peoples of Southern Africa". Its early program of action focused on transport and communications, agriculture, energy, and human devel- opment. Today, its mandate includes areas ranging from harmonizing business and regulatory practices to attract investment to natural resources management, from conflict resolution to the cooperation and sharing of energy (i.e., the Southern African Power Pool, SAPP). At present, SADC has 15 member countries: Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mau- ritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Many interrelated factors may challenge the success of the re- gional economic communities and regional integration initiatives: 155 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis · Proliferation and overlapping membership. With a · Low popular participation in the regional integration growing number of RECs, many countries are debate and agenda. Governments and intergov- members of multiple arrangements resulting ernmental organizations typically dominate in a complex web of regional organizations, of dialogue on integration. As a result, institutions which only eight are officially recognized by and consultation mechanisms often exclude the AU21 (figure 4.1.). This results in fragmented many relevant stakeholders and the wider markets and approaches to regional integra- population. Wider participation is increasingly tion; inconsistent objectives and conflicting being recognized, engaging among others, ac- operational mandates; contradictory obligations tors form civil society. However, integration is and loyalties for member countries; increased not limited to mere participation. financial cost of country membership; duplica- · Lack of information regarding the costs and benefits tion of programs and efforts; unhealthy rivalry of integration. National benefit from regional in- for donor funds; and, consequently, reduced tegration and initiatives is often uncertain. Thus, ability to pursue coherent and effective integra- national authorities are in many cases reluctant tion programs. to adopt and commit necessary resources and · Limited capacity and inadequate funding. The authority to regional arrangements, often mo- RECs' ability to play lead roles in successful tivated by fear of revenue losses in trade and regional cooperation and integration is often customs. limited by inadequate mandates, capabilities, · Controversy surrounding the path and pace of insufficient and unpredictable funding, poor regional integration and liberalization. Liberaliza- remuneration for staff members (resulting in tion of regional trade and tariff regimes is one high turnover and extended vacancies), and of the main drivers of integration schemes. The weakened capacity. In many cases, member extent of liberalization remains a controversial countries have expanded the mandate of the issue, especially when regional arrangements regional economic communities without a com- are compromised by competitiveness. Tariff mensurate increase in funding. liberalization, whether unilateral or otherwise, · Lack of supranational authority and weakened can also affect government revenue (Dinka and implementation of agreed programs. A number Kennes 2007). of RECs have been unable to fully implement integration programs on a timely basis. Delays partly reflect the lack of enforcement authority, 4.2 insTiTuTionalconTexT as sanctions are rarely applied to countries in ForTransboundary breach of common agreements. This has opened cooperaTioninTheZaMbeZi a substantial gap between the stated aspirations riverbasin of member countries (as expressed in the treaties and protocols creating the regional economic 4.2.1 sadc­frameworkandactivities communities) and the reality on the ground. Re- gional goals have translated poorly into national SADC Revised Protocol on Shared plans and budgets, and regional programs have Watercourse (2000) been poorly implemented at the national level. This may be explained by a general reluctance The initial SADC "Protocol on Shared Watercourse of countries to cede their national powers to Systems" was signed in 1995. Signatories to the regional authorities. agreement included Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, 21 The African Union recognizes the following institutions as RECs: UMA (Arab Maghreb Union), CEN-SAD (Community of Sahel-Saharan States), COMESA (Common Market for East and Southern Africa), EAC (East African Community), ECOW- AS (Economic Community of West African States), ECCAS (Economic Community of Central African States), IGAD (Inter- Governmental Authority on Development), and SADC (Southern African Development Community). 156 Regional Cooperation Figure 4.1. Regional Economic Communities in Africa Senegal Benin Mali Cape Verde Burkina Faso AMU Côte d'Ivoire Guinea Bissau Algeria WAEMU Mauritania Niger Togo ECOWAS MRU Liberia Ghana Sierra Leone Nigeria Guinea Gambia Morocco Tunisia CEN-SAD IGAD Somalia Libya Central Cameroon African Eritrea Republic Egypt Equatorial Djibouti Guinea Chad Sudan Ethiopia Rep. Congo Comoros Kenya Gabon Uganda ECCAS CEMAC São Tomé and CEPGL Príncipe Rwanda Burundi DR IOC Congo Angola Madagascar SADC Mauritius COMESA Zambia Seychelles EAC Zimbabwe Mozambique Tanzania Malawi Botswana Swaziland SACU Namibia South Africa Réunion Lesotho Source: World Bank 2008. Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Seychelles, and Democratic Republic of Congo Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. (DRC) have joined SADC and acceded to the pro- The protocol came into force on September 29, tocol. In April 1998, discussions began to bring the 1998 after being ratified by a two-thirds majority protocol closer to the United Nations Convention of SADC member States. Since 1995, Mauritius, on the Law of Non-Navigable Uses of International 157 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Watercourses and incorporate other adjustment · The coordinated, integrated, and environmen- requested by the signatories. In 2000, the SADC tally sound development and management of member countries signed the "Revised Protocol shared watercourses; on Shared Watercourses" to accommodate these · The harmonization and monitoring of legisla- improvements. tion and policies for planning, development, The original protocol established the framework conservation, and protection of shared water- for the use of watercourses shared by two or more courses and their resources; and member countries, and it emphasized the follow- · Research and technology development, in- ing principles: the right of each member country formation exchange, capacity building, and to use shared watercourses; maintenance of a bal- the application of appropriate technologies in ance between development and conservation; col- management of shared watercourses. laboration between riparian member countries on developments affecting shared watercourses; free In addition, the revised protocol includes a exchange of relevant information between riparian set of general principles. Member countries have countries; and, the pursuit of equitable exploitation committed to participate in the use, development, of the River's resources among member countries. and protection of a shared watercourse--including Furthermore, the protocol outlined a number of both the right to use the watercourse and the duty to specific obligations for the member countries on pre- cooperate in its protection and development (taking vention of pollution, elaboration of impact assess- into account all relevant factors such as the environ- ments, prevention of introduction of alien species, mental needs; populations dependent on the shared and notification in emergency cases, among others. watercourses; conservation, protection, develop- Member countries view the protocol on shared wa- ment and economy of use of the water resources tercourse systems as a high priority for developing and the costs of measures taken to that effect; and, sustainable water resources management for the the availability of alternatives, of comparable value, regions scarce water resources and for reducing and to a particular planned or existing use). resolving conflicts over these resources. The institutional mechanisms responsible for The revised protocol clarified certain concepts the implementation of the revised protocol are: and procedures. The role of water for environmen- tal sustainability or water for the preservation of · SADC: ecosystems was emphasized. Management aspects - the Committee of Water Ministers of shared watercourses were equally strengthened- - the Committee of Water Senior Officials comprising development and planning, implemen- - the Water Sector Coordinating Unit tation of any agreed plans, and promotion of ratio- - the Water Resources Technical Committee nal, equitable, and optimal utilization, protection, and Sub-Committees and control of shared watercourses. The revisions · Shared Watercourse Institutions, which are incorporated measures to prevent pollution of and described in the following excerpts from the any significant harm to the watercourses. Further- protocol: more, the meaning of watercourses was redefined - Member countries undertake to establish to include both surface and groundwater. appropriate institutions, such as watercourse The overall objective of the revised protocol commissions, water authorities, or boards as is to further foster cooperation between member may be determined; countries, and seeks to promote the following in - The responsibilities of such institutions shall particular: be [...] in conformity with the principles set out in this protocol; and · The establishment of agreements and institutions - Shared Watercourse Institutions shall pro- for the management of shared watercourses; vide on a regular basis, or as required by · The sustainable, equitable, and reasonable use the Water Sector Coordinating Unit, all the of the shared watercourses; information necessary to assess progress on 158 Regional Cooperation the implementation of the provisions of the Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe) to protocol.22 promote joint management of the water resources of the Zambezi River Basin. The Action Plan for En- SADC Drought Monitoring Center in vironmentally Sound Management of the Zambezi Gaborone River (ZACPLAN) was subsequently launched with a series of integrated projects, known as the Zam- The SADC Drought Monitoring Center was estab- bezi Action Plan Projects or ZACPROs. The projects lished in the early 2000s. One of the center's main aimed to address both technical and political initia- services is delivering regular regional weather tives, including support to preparation of a Zam- forecasts at subregional level, especially on rain- bezi River Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM). fall. Relevant government authorities in charge of The core project of the ZACPLAN, ZACPRO 6, fo- water resource management in the region use these cuses on establishing an enabling environment for forecasts, often communicated via newsletters. the goals of ZACPLAN and the development of an The forecasts are also crosschecked with SARCOF integrated water resources management strategy for (Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum) the Zambezi River Basin (ZAMSTRAT). and it contributes to alleviating the weaknesses in The first phase of ZACPRO 6, 1995­1999, included hydrometric networks across the region. the developing of a data system (ZACBASE) and wa- ter use sector studies, with minimal attention to the in- Southern African Climate Outlook Forum stitutional environment in which such planning tools (SARCOF) and models were to operate. In due course, a draft ZAMCOM Agreement was produced and the inital The Southern African Climate Outlook Forum (SAR- detailed negotiations among the riparian countries COF) is a collaborative effort between a series of or- took place in 1998. The negotiations were terminated ganizations. They include the SADC Drought Moni- later in the same year when one riparian country, toring Center (DMC) and the World Meteorological Zambia, withdrew. Zambia's ongoing policy and Organization (WMO), United Nations Inter Agency legislative reforms encumbered international water International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ resources management and capacity. Nevertheless, it ISDR), the Department of Meteorological Services was agreed that the process should meet the needs of of Lesotho, and other partners. It convenes annu- all SADC Member States in line with the provisions of ally to deliver prospect over the next coming rainy the Revised SADC Protocol on Shared Water Courses. season. The SARCOF outlooks applies primarily to The ZACPLAN process was revived in October the period covering major seasons and applies only 2001, through the launch of the ZACPRO 6, Phase II to relatively large areas. Hence the forecasts may Project (ZACPRO 6.2) with the financial assistance of not account for intra-seasonal or local variations. the governments of Sweden, Norway and Denmark. The immediate objectives of ZACPRO 6.2 lasting 4.2.2 TheZambeziriverwatercourse 2001­2009, were to: (i) setup the regional and national commission(ZaMcoM) enabling environment necessary for strategic water resources management through ZAMCOM; (ii) es- Negotiations to establish a Zambezi River Water- tablish water resources management systems includ- course Commission (ZAMCOM) began in the late ing models, tools and guidelines; and (iii) develop 1980s but were postponed due to a shift in focus to an integrated water resources management strategy. the SADC Protocol on Shared Watercourses. In 1987, To meet the first objective of setting up an en- however, SADC facilitated the initial discussions abling environment for the ZAMCOM, negotiations on an agreement between the eight riparian coun- led to an updated version of the draft ZAMCOM tries (Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, agreement which was signed by seven of the eight 22 If a dispute among member states cannot first be settled amicably, it shall be referred to the SADC Tribunal as provisioned in the SADC Treaty. 159 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis riparian countries on July 13, 2004. The agreement state. It will convene at least once a year, elect a will come into force with ratification by a two-thirds chairperson and a vice chair, and make decisions majority (or six of the eight riparian countries). To by consensus. The Council is expected to be in date, out of the seven countries that have signed charge of the overall guidance, strategic planning the agreement, five have ratified. Zambia still has supervision, financial overview and decisions, not signed and is awaiting conclusion of the policy connecting with institutions outside the Zambezi reform process and institutional alignments. Once River Basin, and evaluation of programs. established, the ZAMCOM Secretariat is expected to · The Technical Committee (ZAMTEC) will comprise assume the responsibility for ZACPRO 6.2 project. not more than three members from each member In the meantime, ZACPRO 6.2 has been coordinated country, plus advisors as determined by each by the SADC Water Division and the majority of country. It will convene at least once a year, have implementation has been done by the Zambezi River an elected chair and vice chair, and decisions will Authority (ZRA) on behalf of the riparian countries. be made by consensus. The Committee will be in As part of the second objective to develop charge of implementing policies and decisions models, tools and guidelines, the Zambezi Water of the Council, developing the strategic plan, Information System (ZAMWIS) was established. developing hydrometric data and early-warning The third objective resulted in the development systems, and monitoring water abstraction. The of the Integrated Water Resources Management Committee will also make legal, political, and Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi technical recommendations to the Council and River System in 2008 (ZAMSTRAT). ZAMSTRAT appoint staff and supervise the Secretariat. acknowledges certain weaknesses in the approach · The Secretariat (ZAMSEC) will comprise the Ex- to ZAMCOM and makes recommendations on how ecutive Secretary, and technical and supporting to address these. They are presented in four broad personnel as approved by the Council. The Secre- categories outlined in table 4.1. tariat is to be in charge of implementing decisions ZACPRO 6.2 came to an end on April 30, 2009 and guidelines determined by the Committee and was supposed to cede its functions to ZAMCOM. and provide support on all issues (adminis- In July 2009, in the absence of a ratified agreement, trative, legal, technical, budgetary, planning, the riparian Ministers responsible for water adopted information technology, hazard awareness, etc.). an Interim ZAMCOM Governance Structure with all riparian countries agreeing on the establishment By signing the ZAMCOM agreement, the ripar- of an interim secretariat to be located in Gaborone, ian member countries are obliged to promises made Botswana. through technical, legislative, administrative com- mittments, and its other aspects of shared manage- Governance structure ment of the Zambezi River. They also have to conduct their management plans, projects, and programs in When the agreement is ratified, the Zambezi River accordance with the ZAMSTRAT, as well as collabo- Watercourse Commission will be a regional organiza- rate closely in their respective countries with civil tion with legal status empowered to enter into contract, society, institutions, and organizations responsible acquire and own property, sue and be sued on behalf for water use, development and management. Ripar- of the riparian countries. This is applicable in the ter- ian member countries commit themselves to furnish, ritory of each member country. In practical terms, it is collect, and process data when and where appropri- feasible that the ZAMCOM could become the owner of ate at a reasonable cost. They also employ their best some shared equipment and assets at river basin level. efforts in developing standardized methodologies The Zambezi River Watercourse Commission for data collection, processing and exchange. is foreseen to include: The core budget of the Commission is mainly drawn from direct contributions from member coun- · The Council of Ministers that comprises the minis- tries and any other funding sources for specific func- ters in charge of water resources of each member tions from donors or international organizations. 160 Regional Cooperation Table 4.1. ZAMCOM ­ recommendations for improvement (ZAMSTRAT) Integrated and Coordinated Water Resources Development Weaknesses Actions Inadequate water infrastructure for achiev- · Joint development of feasible package of major hydropower sites, taking into account multiple func- ing regional energy security. tions in coordination with SAPP. · Identify and promote options for small scale hydropower development. Insufficient water infrastructure for agricul- · Support the development of agriculture through basic facilities such as reliable input supply and better tural development to achieve regional food road networks. security. · Expand irrigated agriculture. · Promote and support the restoration and sustainability of flood plain agriculture. · Enhance the productivity of rain-fed agriculture through improved water management options. Major dams in the Basin were constructed · Develop appropriate river simulation models to identify the influence of dam operations on the river for a single purpose and their operation is flow regimes, especially downstream, including unregulated tributaries. not optimized for multiple uses. · Optimize multi-purpose management of existing and planned future reservoirs. Inadequate financing of water resources · Improve overall investment climate to make water development infrastructure financing more attrac- development and management. tive. · Develop mechanisms for local infrastructure co-financing. · Raise awareness of the vital role of the water sector in economic development and poverty alleviation. · Enhance the role of parliamentarians in improving the business and investment environment. · Motivate private sector development in support of poverty alleviation. Low access to Water Supply and Sanitation. · Expand coverage of water supply and sanitation services in rural and urban areas. Environmental Management and Sustainable Development Weaknesses Actions Inadequate protection and sustainable · Improve the wetland related regulation and management within and between riparian countries. development and use of wetlands. · Assess and maintain environmental flows appropriate to each river section on its course. · Develop management plans for all the major wetlands in the Basin taking into account the different wetland functions and services. · Develop and implement special initiatives for environmental management around hotspots, as pilot cases to later be extrapolated elsewhere in the Basin and beyond. Deterioration of water quality due to point · Set up integrated water quality monitoring system. pollution from mining, industrial and urban · Harmonize legislation and enforcement systems. centers. · Promote clean technology. · Conduct regular research of emerging pollution challenges. Proliferation of invasive aquatic weeds. · Harmonize the legislation on the control of aquatic weeds. · Set up appropriate national and regional focal points on aquatic weed control. · Initiate national and regional capacity building programmes. · Initiate joint monitoring and survey of aquatic weeds and others. · Adjust reservoir operations (including provision for weed control). Unsustainable and low-productivity fisheries · Collaborate with the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) program towards improving management. fisheries productivity. · Integrate fisheries development with water resources planning, management and development-- including new reservoir operating rules, fishery production, and provision for fish migration. Tourism development is threatened by · Systematically integrate tourism development in water resources planning, development and degradation of the aquatic environment. management. · Develop catchment management plans, incorporating areas of tourism value, such as intrinsic game management areas and wetlands. · Operate water-related infrastructure in support of tourism management. Continued on next page 161 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Table 4.1. ZAMCOM ­ recommendations for improvement (ZAMSTRAT) (continued) Environmental Management and Sustainable Development Weaknesses Actions High-value and unique ecosystems and · Prepare a comprehensive and spatially explicit map of ecosystems functions and services. related ecological and economic functions · Delineate high priority conservation areas, such as headwaters, recharge zones and flood plains and in the Basin may be threatened and frag- implement land use plans for such areas. mented by accelerated development. · Start international cooperation on linking areas with high significance for biodiversity--coming to Protected Area Networks--vis-a-vis the Transfrontier Conservation Areas. · Develop and implement guidelines for the use of proper environmental and social impact assess- ments in developmental planning and management. Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change Weaknesses Actions Extreme variability and uneven distribution · Carry out comprehensive assessment of the vulnerability of basin water resources to climate change. of rainfall is likely to be amplified by climate change. Lack of integrated flood management in · Integrate flood management in development planning. development planning. · Develop and implement effective land use planning. · Strengthen and encourage collaboration of existing early flood warning institutions. · Dovetail the operation of major water infrastructure to optimize flood attenuation. · Formulate comprehensive flood preparedness and flood response mechanisms, sharing possible benefits of regional good practices. Poor drought management and integration · Support the development of drought management plans, including local irrigation schemes, im- in development planning. proved food stock logistics, crop adaptation and drought insurance. · Mainstream drought forecasting in water resources planning, development and management. Inadequate coping mechanisms for climate · Integrate strategies to deal with climate variability in national socioeconomic development planning change. and management. · Exploit development opportunities under the global climate change protocols for afforestation and reforestation at national as well as regional level. · Setup a regional center of excellence to document and support activities for effective adaptation to climate variability and climate change. Basin-wide Cooperation and Integration Weaknesses Actions Absence of a river basin organization for the · Encourage signing and ratification of the ZAMCOM Agreement and establish and operationalize whole Zambezi River Basin. ZAMCOM--through promotion of targeted measures to raise awareness of benefits of basin-wide development and management of its water resources. · Urgently establish an Interim arrangement for ZAMCOM Secretariat. · Develop public information function initially of the Interim and later permanent ZAMCOM Secretariat. · Strengthen coordination and networking with key institutions with ongoing programs in the Basin (such as SADC, COMESA, SAPP, NEPAD, Waternet, IUCN, WWF, WHYCOS, World Bank etc.), including management commissions of subbasins (Joint Water Commissions, Zambezi River Authority). Weak capacity of national water manage- · Develop and implement performance based training programs on water resources planning, develop- ment institutions to perform river basin ment and management based on institutional development assessments. management tasks. · Implement well-designed basin-wide strategic plan to harmonize water resources planning, develop- ment and management policies, legislation and strategies of the riparian countries. Continued on next page 162 Regional Cooperation Table 4.1. ZAMCOM ­ recommendations for improvement (ZAMSTRAT) (continued) Inadequate water resources knowledge base · Formulate and implement a data and information sharing protocol for further operationalization of for basin-wide planning, development and ZAMWIS as well as the January 2010 Regional Awareness and Communication Strategy for the SADC management. Water Sector. · Harmonize data measurement and management methods and systems across the Basin. · Improve basin-wide data collection systems (water quality and quantity measurements, sediment load, and groundwater). · Priority improvement of data and knowledge base on groundwater resources. · Further development of ZAMWIS (increasing accessibility and interactivity and developing models and decision support system tools). · Strengthen basin-wide research on water resources through riparian-joint programs, collaboration of research institutions, and enhanced information exchange. Inadequate effective stakeholder participa- · Strengthen stakeholder participation through policy and legislation review and revision throughout tion in water resources development and the riparian countries. management. · Formulate and implement a public information program to raise awareness among a broad range of stakeholders. · Strengthen and sustain the Annual Basin Water Forum meetings as part of awareness and informa- tion sharing among basin stakeholders. Source: Euroconsult 2008a. A member country may withdraw from the The immediate objectives and outputs of the agreement at any time during the three years after interim ZAMCOM are: (i) to set up a functional entry into the agreement and after 12 months notice to interim Secretariat of ZAMCOM; (ii) implement the Commission. Any asset of the Commission locat- the plan for operationalizing the ZAMCOM; and ed on the territory of a withdrawn riparian member (iii) support implementation of the prioritized short- country shall remain the property of the Commission term actions stipulated in the ZAMSTRAT. with no possible claim from the said country. 4.2.3 additionalsharedwatercourse Operationalizing ZAMCOM agreementsinZrb An agreement is still pending on when an interim Zambezi River Authority ZAMCOM Secretariat can be established. Two im- mediate objectives and related outputs have been The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) between Zam- agreed upon, and are summarized in table 4.2. bia and Zimbabwe was established in 1987 through Table 4.2. Interim ZAMCOM objectives Objective Outputs 1. ZAMCOM and its components operating effectively. 1.1 ZAMSEC supporting the Council of Ministers and ZAMTEC efficiently and effectively. 1.2 Zambezi Trust Fund established and functioning effectively. 1.3 ZAMCOM I&C Strategy developed and implemented. 1.4 ZAMCOM Organs and Member Countries capacitated to implement ZAMCOM Agreement effectively. 1.5 Studies and Research according to needs and requests from ZAMCOM. 2. Strategic Plan for the Zambezi River Basin agreed and being 2.1 Strategic Plan developed and approved. implemented to guide efficient management and sustainable 2.2 Priority Projects identified, funding packages developed and projects implemented. development of the Zambezi Watercourse. 163 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis endorsement of the Zambezi River Authority Act. 4.2.5 informationManagementsystems The purpose of the Act was primarily the effective management and water use of the Kariba Dam and Strengthening integrated water resources manage- reservoir to enable improved hydropower genera- ment at basin, national and local level depends on tion and delivery to the two major national electric- two issues in particular: the degree of stakeholder ity utilities, ZESCO and ZESA. The agreement has representation and participation; and the collection, also enabled joint development of new schemes and management and exchange of hydrometric and sharing of costs. hydrologic information and data. In a majority of the riparian countries, manage- The Shire River and Lake Malawi/Niassa/ ment of water resources is highly centralized with Nyasa Water Resources Management limited stakeholder representation and participation Initiative in decision making. Zimbabwe and Mozambique are the two countries with most advanced decen- In 2005, Malawi, Mozambique, and Tanzania tralization and stakeholder representation. Both signed a MoU for the management of shared wa- have established basin councils or committees for ter resources of the Shire River and Lake Malawi/ this purpose. In Zimbabwe, Catchment Councils Niassa/Nyasa subbasin. The initiative includes have the mandate and authority over water use proposals for the development and adoption of a licenses and water allocations and they coordinate subbasin agreement on common management and their actions with the regional delegations of the use of water resources by the three riparian coun- Zimbabwe National Water Authority (ZINWA), but tries; capacity building and training in integrated do not depend on it for their decisions. water resources management; and, strengthening In Mozambique, the Regional Water Associa- water resources monitoring systems. tions (ARAs)--and specifically ARA-Zambeze--are semi-autonomous institutions under the Ministry of 4.2.4 institutionalarrangementsinriparian Public Works and Housing. They are autonomous countries in their administrative and financial processes and have the right to own property. ARAs retain The eight riparian countries sharing the Zambezi revenues from water use licenses to sustain their River Basin have different institutional arrangements operations. Their duties include the management for managing water resources. Figure 4.2. gives a of water resources, water allocation and controlling schematic overview of how each riparian country water quality. The Zambezi River Committee com- has organized its institutions. In most countries, the prises 55 members. It is chaired by ARA-Zambeze responsibility to manage a country's water sector lies which also manages discussions and procedures. with several ministries, departments and authorities. Members represent various interests: hydropower, Concurrently, the same agencies can be responsible the Marromeu sugarcane scheme, community lead- for other sectors such as mining, energy, agriculture, ers, authorities, major industries (such as tobacco), or forestry. The application of IWRM across sectors coal mines (CVRD), World Wildlife Fund, and minor as well as to what degree multiple stakeholders are associations (such as fisheries and farmers). The involved differ depending on the particular arrange- Committee meets at least twice a year, once before ment for each country. Hence, the institutional con- the rainy season and at the beginning of the dry text at national level will directly impact application season. The Committee is to become an autonomous of IWRM at the basin level. body with an elected chairperson. Water allocation, and in most cases water re- The second major concern in all riparian coun- sources planning and management, are still central- tries is the collection, management, and exchange ized functions that depend on the central state and of hydrometric and hydrologic data. Availability of administrative boundaries. Furthermore, there is a data has deteriorated due to several factors. Net- need for more formal distinction between regulators works of gauging stations for data collection have and water users at basin level. often not been maintained, have been vandalized 164 Regional Cooperation Figure 4.2. Institutional arrangement for water management in the riparian countries of the Zambezi River Basin Angola Ministry of Energy and Water (MEA) National Institute of Water Resources Management (to be created) River Basin Water Authorities National Directorate of (Cunene and Middle Kwanza) Water (DNA) Provincial Directorate of Water (DPA) Botswana National Disaster Ministry of Minerals, Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Management O ce (NDMO) Energy and Water Resources Wildlife and Tourism Agriculture at the O ce of the President (MMEWR) Water Apportionment Board (WAP) Water Utilities Department of Water Department of Waste Management Department A airs (DWA) Geological Surveys and Pollution of Crop Production Control Department Water Quality Hydrology Groundwater Hydro-geology Irrigation Conservation division division division division division Malawi Disaster Management Unit (DMU) Ministry of Irrigation and at the O ce of the President Water Development Water Resources Board Water Utilities Water Resources Water Supply and Irrigation Department Department Sanitation Department Surface Water Groundwater Water Quality Resources division Resources division division Continued on next page 165 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Figure 4.2. Institutional arrangement for water management in the riparian countries of the Zambezi River Basin (continued) Mozambique Ministry of Public Works National Institute for Disaster Water Utilities and Housing (MOPH) Management (INGC) National Directorate of Water (DNA) 5 Regional Water Administrations (ARAs) Sanitation Water Supply Water Resources Stakeholder Basin Department Department Department Committees Water Quality section Groundwater section Hydrology section Namibia Disaster Management Unit at Ministry of Agriculture, the O ce of the Prime Minister Water and Forestry (MAWF) Nam Water Department of Water A airs and Forestry (DWAF) Hydrology division Geohydrology division Planning division Tanzania Disaster Management Unit at National Environmental Ministry of Water and Irrigation the O ce of the Prime Minister Council Water Resources Division Water Ressources Monitoring Central Water Board and Assessment Section Water Resources Planning Research Basin Water Boards Basin Water O ces and Development Section Transboundary Water Resources Catchment Water Committees Management Section Sub-Catchment Water Committees Water Resources Protection Section Water User Associations Continued on next page 166 Regional Cooperation Figure 4.2. Institutional arrangement for water management in the riparian countries of the Zambezi River Basin (continued) Zambia CABINET OFFICE (of the Vice President) Other ministries Regulatory bodies Ministry of Energy Ministry of Tourism, Environment Ministry of Local and Water Development and Natural Resources Government and Housing Water Board (allocation of water rights) Zambezi River Authority Energy Regulation Board National Water Supply Department of Department of Department of Planning Disaster Department of and Sanitation Council Energy Water A airs and Information Management Unit Infrastructure Support Services Hydrology section Hydrogeology section Administration and Finance Provincial and District O ces Local Authorities Zimbabwe National Civil Protection Unit Ministry of Water Resources and National Environmental (Ministry of Planning) Infrastructure Development Authority Department of Water Development ZINWA Board ZINWA Catchment O ces Catchment Councils Sub-Catchment Councils Water Users Source: Euroconsult Mott MacDonald 2007. www.maji.go.tz or are absent in many parts of the Basin. This un- the quality and type of data collection across the derpins much of the problems later encountered in country, and sometimes a lack of communication the wider information management systems (IMS). between the institutions. In many countries, there is In some countries, the responsibility for data a lack of funding to maintain a functioning IMS for collection is shared between other institutions (such hydrometric and hydrology data. This negatively as dam operating authorities) as well as the national impacts the level of technology that staff can use water department. As such, there are differences in as well as motivation to keep the systems running. 167 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis Transferring data from the collection station into the integrated regional water resources database and bigger IMS often managed centrally, is often done by website that is supported by a network of telemetric postal services which means that exchange of infor- stations distributed across the region. These stations mation suffer delays. Many departments responsible communicate directly with the database via satel- for the IMS suffer backlog of data that has not been lites. Data is accessible through the website which processed and archived. Groundwater monitoring is password protected. Unfortunately, several sta- systems are sparse or nonexistent in most riparian tions have suffered from vandalism as they are not countries. The situation is the same for data relating protected or guarded. to quality of water resources. Furthermore, the use of different data management systems and models 4.2.6 nationalmanagementarrangements has impaired exchange of data further (for example, fortheZambeziriver HYDSTRA, HYDATA, and text for river flow data, and many more for meteorological data). Gabinete do Plano de Desenvolvimento da As a result, joint planning and monitoring of Região do Zambeze (GPZ) water resources at the level of the Zambezi River Basin requires addressing many of the above men- The Gabinete do Plano de Desenvolvimento da tioned challenges at national level. Even optimal Região do Zambeze (GPZ) in Mozambique (the management of existing large hydraulic works, such Zambezi River Valley Development Authority) is a as Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, is hampered, as multipurpose government institution that promotes, is crucial prevention of disastrous flooding. plans, coordinates and supervises the resources in For the purpose of flood management, ARA- the Zambezi River Valley. The concerned sectors Zambeze relies primarily on global data released range from rainfed agriculture and fisheries, to small by SARCOF (Southern Africa Regional Climate scale hydropower and aquatic ecosystems. The GPZ Outlook Forum) or INAM (National Institute of is institutionally positioned directly under the au- Meteorology), and selected websites such as NOAA thority of the Council of Ministers of Mozambique. It and EUMETSAT. ARA-Zambeze also processes dis- is an influential agency and cooperates with a series charge estimates based on the rain forecast using a of private companies in various sectors which have new system developed with the MIKE 11 software a common interest to use the river's resources. and adapted to the Zambezi River Lower system by DHI. However, accuracy remains weak in flat areas Zambezi Valley Development Initiative due to lack of realistic terrain models. Moreover, (Zambia) heavy rain falls in tributaries to the Zambezi River, below Cahora Bassa Dam, that are not gauged and The Zambezi Valley Development Initiative (ZVDI) measured and which lead to flooding downstream. is a non-governmental organization and is located Under ZACPRO 6.2, initiatives were made to in the part of Barotseland that lies within Zambia's consolidate available data in one single database. Western Province. Its mission is dedicated to im- As part of the Zambezi Water Information System proving the living conditions of people living in (ZAMWIS), this database is intended to be the re- the Upper Zambezi Valley (primarily but not exclu- sponsibility of the ZAMCOM Secretariat and rely sively the Lozi people). It has adopted a multiple on data from the riparian countries. Data integrity objective approach, mainly focusing on cultural remains the responsibility of individual countries. heritage and education, though its programs include As a regional part of the World Meteorologi- food security, management of wetland zones, and cal Organization (WMO), the SADC Hydrological biodiversity in the floodplains. Cycle Observing System (SADC HYCOS) project aims to improve basic observation activities, 4.2.7 recommendationsforfurtheranalysis strengthening regional cooperation and promot- ing free exchange of data in the field of hydrology. Despite delays and absence of necessary ratifica- Among other activities, SADC HYCOS involves an tions, the ZAMCOM Agreement is practically 168 Regional Cooperation operational with incoming interim institutions and consumers against the costs generated by larger programs. consumers (Moulin and Shenker 1992). The MSIOA study has identified two areas of analysis that can be pursued in parallel in prepa- Sharing costs and benefits of using water ration of full ratification of ZAMCOM and estab- resources for multiple objectives within one lishing the interim ZAMCOM secretariat. These country are: developing concrete procedures for cost and benefit sharing on specific regional and basin-wide Sharing the costs and benefits of managing water investments; and, initiating practical actions of com- resource for multiple uses and objectives within a mon interest that are not directly governed by the single country is directly linked to the application ZAMCOM agreement (the most immediate being of a national water policy. Proper consideration a common hydrology/hydrometric information must be given to economic development achieved management systems). through developing the hydropower, agriculture Three approaches to cost and benefit sharing and industrial sectors, but also on safeguarding in support of transboundary cooperation in the environmental sustainability and protection as Zambezi River Basin are outlined below. well as sufficient management and distribution of domestic water supply. The Pareto optimality23 is Sharing cost and benefits of hydropower a desirable outcome of any cost and benefit shar- generation between several countries ing mechanism. Maximizing the objectives of one water use, with given constraints, would involve Sharing cost and benefits of electricity generated by the following steps: hydropower among multiple countries is common. Agreeing on the rules of sharing cost can provide a · Assigning a realistic monetary value to each wa- suitable starting point for multilateral negotiations ter use is desirable and will enable comparison; and the aim is usually to share the yields in accor- · Determining the constraints that corresponds dance. Hydropower is a typical case of conjunctive to minimal use of water; production with increasing returns of scale, i.e. the · Developing a model of linear programs, which cost of supplying the same amount of electricity to will maximize (i) the sum of the objectives, an additional country is lower than the cost of sup- and (ii) the conditions subject to the sum of plying it to a previously involved country. constraints; and Shapley-Shubik (1954) outlined two fundamen- · Solving the program. tal principles for such arrangements: The solution thus obtained will represent a · Equity, or in other words "equal treatment of formula for sharing water resources among differ- equals"; and ent objectives while maximizing the welfare of a · The contribution of each player depends on whole country. their own contribution to the benefits of the joint efforts. Sharing costs and benefits of a watercourse when used for multiple objectives and by If the benefits of the joint production efforts are several countries increasingly high, an alternative to the Shapley- Shubik value is serial cost sharing, which depends Sharing costs and benefits of water resource man- on the equity principle and on protecting small agement between multiple objectives (hydropower, 23 Pareto optimality is an important concept in economics with broad applications in game theory, engineering and the social sciences. Given a set of alternative allocations, a change from one allocation to another that can make at least one individual better off without making any other individual worse off is called the Pareto improvement. An allocation is Pareto optimal when no further Pareto improvements can be made. 169 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis irrigation, flood protection, etc.) and among several National or bilateral agencies exist and though countries can be done through a superposition of the some cooperate, there is need for more interagency two methods discussed above. Consideration must collaboration. also be given to guaranteeing water for primary The management, collection and exchange needs, and non-negotiable demands of countries of hydrometric/hydrologic data needs urgent upstream and downstream of the transboundary strengthening across the Basin. Improving these watercourse. In economic literature, the subject is information management systems does not require well discussed in terms of cooperative game and fully implemented agreements and will rely on well non-cooperative game, depending on the degree functioning and widespread networks of gauging to which countries collaborate. stations. In addition, political and financial commit- In this case, the first step is to determine the Pa- ment can lead to tremendous benefits for users of reto optimality that maximizes the community wel- the data--whether it is for planning infrastructure fare of all the countries sharing the Zambezi River such as bridges or for preventing and protecting Basin. Next, the sharing of the cooperative benefits against floods. can be considered in the form of the Shapely-Shubik There is fast growing interest in developing the value or using the serial cost sharing mechanism. Zambezi River's resources for multiple purposes across the Basin. Various large-scale projects in the 4.2.8 concludingremarks pipeline involve the governments in the riparian countries, private sector actors as well as the inter- The framework established by the SADC Revised national community. Appropriate procedures, pro- Protocol on Shared Watercourses strengthens trans- grams and policies should be established to make boundary cooperation in the Zambezi River Basin to the most from this interest to the benefit of economic the benefit of all riparian countries. The ZAMCOM development and poverty reduction. Agreement, though not fully operationalized, Ratification and operationalization of the allows for an interim secretariat and potentially ZAMCOM Agreement would enable a platform for activities are of interest to the entire Basin. cooperation that secures not only the best results Many of the riparian countries already engage from managing the rivers resources, but also the in bilateral cooperation, both formal and informal. most desirable benefits for all riparian countries. 170 References AfriDev Associates. 2004. Caprivi, Sugar Sector Project Environmental Assessment, Task 2. Appendix 9. Scott Wilson Piésold (2003), In- tegrated Kafue River Basin Environmental Impact Study Main Report, Ashford: Scott Wilson Piésold. Batoka Joint Venture Consultants. 1993. Batoka Gorge Hydro-electric Scheme Feasibility Report. Report submitted to the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA). Zambia. Beilfuss, R., And D. dos Santos. 2001. Patterns of Hydrological Change in the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique. 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Lusaka Zambia. 175 Annex List of stakeholders consulted Date of meeting Institution Purpose Attendees Angola 10/09/2008 FAO/EPSMO Discussion on relevant documentation and Mr. Manuel Quintino contacts. 11/04/2008 DNA/GABHIC ­ Direcção Nacional de Águas/ Discussion on ZACPLAN and Strategic Plans Messrs. Armindo Gomes da Gabinete para Administração da Bacia for the Zambezi River Basin in terms of water Silva, Manuel Quintino, Rute Hidrográfica do Rio Cunene resources (Angola perspective) Saraiva, Dário Rodrigues 11/05/2008 SADC National Executive Secretary Discussion on ZACPLAN and Strategic Plans for Messrs. Beatriz Morais, Manuel Zambezi River Basin in terms of water resources Quintino, Rute Saraiva, Dário (SADC perspective) Rodrigues 11/05/2008 DNA ­ Direcção Nacional de Águas Discussion on water supply plans for Moxico Messrs. Guilherme Tavora, Rute Province Saraiva, Dário Rodrigues 11/05/2008 DNA ­ Direcção Nacional de Águas Discussion on hydropower development plans Messrs. Paulo Emidio, Rute and other related water uses for Moxico Province Saraiva, Dário Rodrigues 11/06/2008 MINAGRI ­ Ministério da Agricultura Discussion on the National Irrigation Master Plan Messrs. Jorge David, Rute (Irrigation Schemes) Saraiva, Dário Rodrigues 11/07/2008 MINERG ­ Ministério da Energia Discussion on ZacPlan and other related docu- Messrs. José Salgueiro, Dário mentation for the Zambezi River Basin Rodrigues 11/18/2008 MINERG ­ Ministério da Energia Discussion on Hydropower Development Plans Messrs. Francisco Talino, Dário for Moxico Province Rodrigues 12/02/2009 MINAGRI ­ Ministério da Agricultura Update data for current situation and identified Mr. Dos Santos projects 12/03/2009 Ministério de Geologia e Minas Update data for mining sector Mr. Buta Neto 12/03/2009 DNA ­ Direcção Nacional de Águas Wrap-up meeting Mr. Lucrécio Costa Botswana 05/16/2008 Department of Water Affairs Discussion of documents and contacts for MSIOA Mr. Ontlogetse Dikgomo 05/29/2008 FAO Request for documents on Agricultural projects Mr. Aidan Gulliver in Botswana 09/12/2008 Environmental Consultant Request for documentation regarding tourism Mr. Jon Barnes development in Zambezi River Basin Malawi 06/12/2008 Ministry of Irrigation and Water Development Water resources, hydrology of Shire River and Lake Messr. S. Mainala, A. Chirwa, 06/13/2008 Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa and irrigation demand and P. Kaluwa, Maweru and W. development plans Mikuwa Continued on next page 177 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis List of stakeholders consulted (continued) Date of meeting Institution Purpose Attendees 06/09/2008 Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi Hydrology of hydropower plants Messr. M. Chisale, D. Chapala- 06/19/2008 pata, E. Msiska and M. Gondwe 06/20/2008 06/17/2008 Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority Energy policies and electricity tariff Dr. C. Kafumba, Mrs. E. Potani, 06/25/2008 Mining Department Mining energy demand Mr. P. Chilunguma 06/10/2008 Illovo Sugar Company Irrigation water and energy demand Mr. E. Majamanda, and the Agriculture Manager 09/30/2009 Ministry of Natural Resources, Energy and Update of capital costs for HPP Mr. Kaunda, Director of Environment Planning Mozambique 05/20/2008 National Directorate for Agricultural Services Irrigation schemes Messr. Aurélio Nhabetse, José Almeida 05/21/2008 Unidade Técnica de Implementação dos Hydroelectric Projects Implementation Unit (Plus) Mr. Sérgio Elísio Projectos Hidroeléctricos 05/23/2008 Ministry of Tourism Tourism Mr. Mohamed Haron 05/23/2008 DNA ­ Direcção Nacional de Águas Water resources management Messr. Delário Sengo and Hilário Pereira. 05/27/2008 Ministry of Mineral Resources Mineral resources Messr. Eduardo Alexandre, Antönio Cumbane 05/27/2008 Zambezi Valley Spatial Development Initia- Zambezi Valley Management Unit Mr. Eduardo T. França tive 05/29/2008 Centro de Promoção de Investimentos Investment Promotion Centre Mr. Mussa Usman 11/03/2008 DNA ­ Direcção Nacional de Águas Water resources management/ZAMCOM Messr./Mmes. Suzana Saranga, Belarmino Chivambo, José Malanço, Hilário Pereira 11/04/2008 Instituto Nacional de Gestão de Calamidade Floods in Zambezi River Basin Mr. Pedro Tomo 11/04/2008 National Directorate for Agricultural Services Irrigation schemes in Zambezi River Basin Messr. Onassis Oliviera, Marcelo Chaquisse, Aurélio Nhabetse 11/05/2008 Gabinete de Promoção do Zambezi Zambezi Valley Management Unit Messr. Sergio Vieira, Ambrosio Da Fonseca, Amindo Fanhiça, and others 11/06/2008 Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa Electricity Production Unit Messr. Gildo Sibumbe, Gustavo Cornelius Jessen, and others 11/07/2008 ARA-Zambeze Development of Mozambican part of Zambezi Messr. Manuel Malaze, Carlos River Basin Fenhane 09/24/2009 INGC/CENOE Floods in lower Zambezi Mr. Bonifacio Antônio 09/24/2009 UTIP Update studies for Mphanda Nkuwa Mr. Sérgio Elisio 09/24/2009 World Bank/Colorado State University Climate changes and the Zambezi River Basin 09/24/2009 Hidroeléctrica de Mphanda Nkuwa Update studies for Mphanda Nkuwa Dam Mr. Alexandre Ferreia, Mrs. Madalena Dray 09/25/2009 RMSI Floods in Mozambique/Malawi Mr. B. Radha Krishna Murthy 09/25/2009 World Bank Energy economy Mr. Reto Theonen Continued on next page 178 Annex. List of Stakeholders Consulted List of stakeholders consulted (continued) Date of meeting Institution Purpose Attendees Namibia 05/07/2008 Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry Discussion on documents for MSIOA Mr. T. Basson (Deputy Dir. Engineering Services) Mr. P. Lieberberg (Engineer) 05/08/2008 Namibia Development Corporation Discussion on irrigation projects in Caprivi Region Mr. P. de Wet (Agricultural in Zambezi River Basin Economist) 05/08/2008 Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry Discussion on documents for MSIOA Mr. A. Nehemia (Deputy Permanent Secretary Water Affairs) Mr. S. Luyanga (Development Planner) 06/03/2008 Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry Discussion on documents for MSIOA Dr. S. de Wet (Director Water Resources) Mr. P. Liebenberg (Agricultural Engineer) 06/04/2008 Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry Collection of FAO report on SADC Agricultural plans Mr. T. Basson (Deputy Director) Tanzania 05/24/2008 WWF Tanzania Songwe River Catchment studies Mr. Leodgard Haule (National Coordinator WWF) 06/03/2008 TANESCO Hydropower Rumakali Feasibility Study Messr./Mmes. Katyega, Maneno John (Principal Research Engineer) 06/04/2008 World Bank, Dar es Salaam World Bank involvement in the Shire River ­ Lake Ms. Jane Kibassa Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin 06/04/2008 World Bank, Dar es Salaam Agriculture and rural development Mr. Henry Gordon (Senior Sector Economist) 06/05/2008 Ministry of Water and Irrigation Water resources management in the Shire River ­ Mr./Ms. A. Mwitagila Lake Malawi/Niassa/Nyasa subbasin 06/05/2008 Ministry of Water and Irrigation Water policy issues Mr./Ms. J. Mihayo (Assistant Director) 08/24/2008 Ministry of Water and Irrigation Water Use in the Shire River ­ Lake Malawi/Ni- Mr./Ms. A. Mwitagila assa/Nyasa subbasin 11/06/2009 Ministry of Water and Irrigation Update data for irrigation sector Director of Irrigation and Technical Services 11/06/2009 Ministry of Energy and Minerals Update information for Rumakali and Songwé Messr. Bashir Mrindoko, Erasto HPP Simon 09/19/2008 Environmental consultant Request for documentation regarding tourism Mr. Jon Barnes development in Zambezi River Basin 09/19/2008 IECN Request for documentation regarding tourism Mrs. Julianne Zeidler development in Zambezi River Basin 11/03/2009 Ministry of Water and Irrigation Update current situation and identified projects in Messr./Mmes. Abraham agriculture Nehemia, Matthew Mushabati, Florence Sibanda, Liedenberg Continued on next page 179 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis List of stakeholders consulted (continued) Date of meeting Institution Purpose Attendees 23/05/2008 Ministry of Water and Irrigation Irrigation policy Mr. P.F. Kweka (Zonal Irrigation Engineer) Zambia 04/01/2008 World Bank Introductory meetings Messr./Mmes. Len Abrams, with the World Bank team Marcus Wishart, Rimma Dankova 04/02/2008 ZAMCOM Meeting of Committee Senior Officials ZAMCOM of Senior Officials Chisamba 04/06/2008 ZRA Site visit to Kariba Dam Mr. John Bosco 04/07/2008 Euroconsult Mott MacDonald IWRM Strategy and Implementation Dr. Inyambo Nyumbu Plan for the Zambezi River Basin 04/08/2008 University of Zambia, Hydrogeological Presentation of project and data collection Prof. Imasiku Nyambe Department 04/08/2008 ZRA Presentation of project and data collection Dr. Michael Tumbare (Chief Executive), Mr. Clement Mukosa (Chief Engineer), Mr. Wilson Sakala (Hydrologist), Mr. Samuel Mwale (Modeling Technician) 04/08/2008 Zambezi Action Plan Project 6 (ZACPRO6): Presentation of project and data collection Dr. Zebediah Phiri (Project Manager), Dr. Jefter Sakup- wanya (Water Resources Ex- pert), Ms. Leonnisah Munjoma (Communications Specialist), Ms. Karin Gullstrand (Associate GIS Expert) 04/09/2008 Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Presentation of project and data collection Messr./Mmes. Godwin Resources Gondwe, (Chief Environmen- tal Management Officer), Frederick Mulenga (Provincial Forestry Officer), Mr. Kanyemba (Agronomist), Mr. Mwase Phiri (ref. National Irrigation Strategy and Plan) 04/09/2008 World Bank CADP Mr. Alex Mwanaksabe (Agricul- tural Specialist) 04/09/2008 Department of Water Affairs ZAMCOM & hydrology in Zambia Messr. Adam Hussen (Director), Antony Mporokoso, (Principal Hydrologist) 04/10/2008 World Bank Tourism sector in the Basin, biodiversity and water Mr. Jean-Michel Pavy resources management 04/11/2008 Zambia National Farmers' Union Presentation of project and data collection on crop Mr. John F.W. Fynn (Technical budgets Assistant) Continued on next page 180 Annex. List of Stakeholders Consulted List of stakeholders consulted (continued) Date of meeting Institution Purpose Attendees 04/15/2008 ZESCO Presentation of project and data collection Messr./Mmes. Alvin Monga (Director, Engineering Develop- ment), Romas Kamanga (Senior Engineer), Elenestina Mwelwa (Hydrologist) 04/16/2008 WWF Zambia Presentation of project and data collection Mr. James Phiri (Country Manager) 04/17/2008 Ministry of Energy and Water Development, Presentation of project and data collection Mr. Andy Mondoka Water Board 04/17/2008 Ministry of Energy and Water Development Presentation of project and data collection Messr. Ben Chundu (Director of Planning), Mundu Mwila (Planner) 05/27/2008 World Bank Irrigation in Kafue River Basin Mr. Timothy Stephens 06/02/2008 Farmer Visit of sugar cane farm in Kafue River Basin Mr. Nick Patterson 06/02/2008 Farmer Visit of Kaleya smallholders company Messr./Mmes. Solomon Njobvu (Director), Rama Varma (ac- countant) 06/10/2008 World Bank Obtain tourism studies and information Mr. Jean-Michel Pavy 06/11/2008 WWF and Nature Conservancy Wetlands and environment in Zambezi River Basin Mr. David Harrison 09/17/2009 ZESCO Operation of Itezhi Tezhi and the Kafue Flats Mr. Romas Kamenga 09/17/2009 Ministry of Agriculture Review and validation of data on irrigation: cur- Mr. Sikuleka rent situation and identified projects 09/17/2009 ZESCO Review pricing of electricity Ms. Claire Limbwambwa Zimbabwe 05/15/2008 World Bank Mr./Ms. Chidawanyika 05/16/2008 FAO Mr. Martin Adger 05/16/2008 FAO Ms. Aubrey Harris 05/16/2008 SARDC-IMERCSA Mr. Egline Tawuya 05/16/2008 University of Zimbabwe, Department of Soil Mr. Emmanuel Science Manzungu(Senior Lecturer) 05/16/2008 Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Mr. T. Chipunza (Acting Chief Irrigation Development Agricultural Economist) Mr. Shepherd Mazani (Senior Agricultural Economist) 05/20/2008 Ministry of Water Resources and Infrastructure Mr. Chitsiko (Permanent Development Secretary) Eng. Mawere (Deputy Director) 05/21/2008 Ministry of Energy and Power Development Eng. Munodawafa (Director, Department of Power) Continued on next page 181 The Zambezi River Basin: A Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis List of stakeholders consulted (continued) Date of meeting Institution Purpose Attendees 05/21/2008 Ministry of Water Resources and Infrastructure Dr. S.S. Mlambo (Permanent Development Secretary), Dr. E. Chadenga (Director), Dr. Zawo (Acting Deputy Director), Z. Shumba (Chief Engineer for Midlands Province), Hakata (Accounting Officer for the department), T. Zvavamwe (Acting Chief Agricultural Economist) 05/22/2008 Ministry of Water Resources and Infrastructure Messr./Mmes. Dr. E. Chadenga Development (Director), N. Mufute (Irrigation Engineer), T. Zvavamwe (Acting Chief Agricultural Economist) 05/23/2008 Ministry of Environment and Tourism Ms. Elizabeth Sangarwe (Permanent Secrtary) 05/28/2008 Zimbabwe National Water Authority (ZINWA) Messr./Mmes. E.K. Mada- Ministry of Water Resources and Infrastructure mombe (Data and Research Development Manager ZINWA), Marumbwa (GIS Specialist ZINWA) 182 THE WORLD BANK GROUP 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 USA