103334 ALL ABOARD jrefrmEdkifiHwGi Policies for shared prosperity in Myanmar f rSsa0 ydkifq dkifo nhf om ,m 0a jym rIu dk a zmfa qm ifEdki frn hf rl0g' tBuHjyKcs ufrsm; This note was prepared by: Habib Rab (Senior Country Economist) under the guidance of: Ulrich Zachau (Country Director, South East Asia), Abdoulaye Seck (Country Manager, Myanmar), Mathew Verghis (Practice Manager, Macro-Fiscal Management), and Shabih Mohib (Program Leader, Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions). ALL ABOARD Policies for shared prosperity in Myanmar tm;vHk;oGm;MupdkY ALL ABOARD jrefrmEdkifiHwGif rSsa0ydkifqdkifonhf Policies for shared prosperity in Myanmar om,m0ajymrIudk azmfaqmifEdkifrnhf rl0g' tBuHjyKcsufrsm; ed'gef; 2015 ckESpf Edk0ifbmv 8 &ufaeYu usif;ycJhaom taxGaxGa&G;aumufyGJonf 2011 ckESpfu tpjyKcJhaom jrefrmEdkifiH\ EdkifiHa&;ESihf pD;yGm;a&; tajymif;tvJ\ ordkif;wGifaom rSwfwdkifwpfck jzpfonf/ xdktajymif; tvJrsm;udk qufvuf vufqifhurf; o,faqmifoGm;NyD; jynfolwdkY\ qE´jzpfonfh om,m0ajymaom EdkifiHwpfck ay:aygufvmap&eftwGuf ,ck pwifrnfh rl0g' csrSwfolrsm;u jyifqifaeMuNyD jzpfonf/ þrl0g'a&;&m tMuHjyKcsufrsm; pmwrf;rSwpfqifh urÇmhbPftkyfpkonf ta&;BuD;aom zGHUNzdK;a&;qdkif&m pdefac:rIrsm;? ta&SUtm&SwGif tjrefqHk; wdk;wufEIef;&Sdonfh rl0g'ydkif;qdkif&m a&G;cs,frIrsm;ESifh jyKjyifajymif;vJrIrsm;udk EdkifiHrsm;teuf wpfckjzpfum ajzavSsmhrI vkyfump aqG;aEG;rIrsm; ay:aygufvmap&ef &nf&G,fxm;ygonf/ ueOD;tqihfwGif wdk;wufrItm;aumif;aom tjcm;EdkifiH xkdokdUjzifh jrefrmjynfolrsm;twGuf rSsa0ydkifqdkifonhf rsm;ESihf ,SOfEdkifonf/ vmrnhf ESpfrsm;twGif; 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oD;jcm; avhvmokH;oyf aqG;aEG;xm;aomfvnf; ¤if;taMumif;t&mrsm;udk xm;onf/ 1 urÇmhbPf tkyfpku oD;jcm;taejzifh avhvmvsuf 1 1 urÇmhbPftkyfpk\ jrefrmhpD;yGm;a&; apmifhMunfh tpD&ifcHpm? atmufwdkbmv? 2015/ 5 CLOSING THE GAP Expanding access to social services uGm[rIudk avSsmhcsjcif; vlwdkif;twGuf ynma&;? usef;rma&;ESihf vlrIa&; 0efaqmifrIrsm; wdk;jr§ifhaqmif&Gufay;jcif; jrefrmEdkifiHtwGuf tBuD;rm;qHk; ydkifqdkifrIrSm vlom; xdktcsufudk ydkrdk qdk;aponfrSm vlrIumuG,fapmifha&SmufrI t&if;tESD;yif jzpfonf/ jrefrmEdkifiHonf vuf&SdvlOD;a& enf;yg;jcif;jzpfNyD; vlOD;a&\ 0 'or 1 &mcdkifEIef;om yHko@meft& tm;vkH;yg0ifonfh zGHUNzdK;wdk;wufrIESifh &&SdNyD; tjcm;aom ta&SUtm&SESihf ypdzdwfa'o xkwfvkyfrI pGrf;tm;jrifhrm;aom vkyfom;tiftm;udk EdkifiHrsm;wGif 39 &mcdkifEIef;aom vlOD;a&rSm xdk jzpfxGef;aprnfh tvm;tvmaumif;rsm; &SdaeNyD; tultnDrsm;udk &,lEdkifonf/ “vlOD;a&tcsKd;tpm;aMumifh tusKd;&SdEdkifrnfh tvm;tvm” (demographic dividend) wpfckudk ydkifqdkifxm;onf/ 2011 ckESpfrSpwifum usef;rma&;ESihf ynma&; vlOD;a& 29 &mcdkifEIef;onf (touf 15 ESpfatmuf) vkyfief;rsm;tay: jynfolYb@maiG odompGm uav;rsm;jzpfNyD;tem*wfwGiwd f kif;jynf\vkyftm;jzpfum jr§ifhwifokH;pGJcJhonfhtwGuf jynfolU0efaqmifrIrsm;udk 66 &mcdkifEIef;rSm ukefxkwfvkyfEkdifaom touf &&SdrI wdk;wufvmonf/3 (yHk - 2) xkdokdY u@tvdkuf (15 ESpfrS 64 ESpftwGif;) jzpfonf/12 xdkYaMumihf &nf&G,fokH;pGJrIudk wdk;jr§ifh aqmif&GufEdkifcJhonfhtwGuf jrefrmEdkifiH&Sd vlOD;a&onf pD;yGm;a&;zGHUNzdK;wdk;wufrI\ tdrfaxmifpkrsm;\ b@ma&; 0efxkyf0efydk;udk avSsmhcs toD;tyGifhrsm;udk ¤if;wdkY touft&G,frsm; tdkrif; EdkifcJhonf/ ueOD;&v'frsm;t& ynma&;ESifh usef;rma&; roGm;rD &&SdEdkif&ef tvm;tvmrsm; &Sdaeonf/ udpö&yfrsm;wGif jynfolrsm; taejzifh tdwfpdkuf okH;pGJae&onfh yrmP avSsmhenf;vmaMumif; od&onf/ odkYaomf usef;rma&;? ynma&;ESihf vlrIumuG,f xdkjyKjyifajymif;vJrIrsm;onf jrefrmEdkifiH\ vuf&SdESihf apmihfa&SmufrI vkyfief;rsm;wGif q,fpkESpfrsm;pGm tem*wfumv vkyfom;tiftm;\ xkwfvkyfEdkifpGrf;ESihf vkHavmufonfh &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrI r&SdcJhjcif;\ tvkyfcGiftwGuf tqifoifh jzpfrIudk wdk;wufap&ef tusKd;quftjzpf vlrIzGHUNzdK;a&; tusdK;&v'frsm; taxmuftuljyKEdkifrnf/ ueOD; taxmuftxm; edrfhuscJh&onf/ udk,fydkif0ifaiGjzihf oHk;pGJEdkifolrsm;om rsm;t& pmoifausmif;wGif wpfESpf ydkwufjcif;onf vlrIa&; 0efaqmifrIrsm;udk aumif;pGm &,loHk;pGJEdkifNyD; 0ifaiGjrifhrm;rI 6.7 &mcdkifEIef; ESifh qufpyfaeaMumif; xdktcsufu EdkifiHwpf0Srf;wGif vlrIa&;ESihf pD;yGm;a&; od&onf/ rnDrSsrIudk ydkrdkBuD;xGm;aponf/ 2 jynfaxmifpkor®w jrefrmEdkifiHawmf/ 2014 jrefrmEdkifiH 3 ,cif a'wmrsm;onf cdkifvkHrI tm;enf;onfhtwGuf vlOD;a&ESihf oef;acgifpm&if;/ twGJ 2/ (2015 arv) wpfOD;csif;\ *sD'DyDudk 2005 ckESpf tar&duefa':vm ykHrSefaps;EIef;t& wGufcsufxm;ygonf/ 6 ykH-2/ ynma&;ESifh usef;rma&;twGuf tpdk;&\ tokH;p&dwf - ykH-3/ ynma&;ESifh usef;rma&;twGuf tpdk;&\ tokH;p&dwf - 0ifaiGedrfh EdkifiHrsm; (*sD'DyD \ &mcdkifEIef;) 0ifaiGtv,ftvwfEdkifiHrsm; (*sD'DyD \ &mcdkifEIef;) Source: WDI and WB Staff Estimates Source: WDI and WB Staff Estimates (Indonesia, Malaysia and (Cambodia and Lao PDR data cover 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2010; Thailand data cover 1996, 2001, 2007 and 2010) Myanmar data covers 2011-2014) jynfolUb@maiGudk ynma&;ESihf usef;rma&;u@ rsm;twGuf okH;pGJ&mwGif aumif;rGefpGmokH;pGJrIESifh tvm;wl okH;pGJrIyrmP wdk;wufvma&;udk qufvuf aqmif&GufoGm;&ef ta&;BuD;onf/ jynfolUb@ maiGrsm;udk okH;pGJ&mwGif rnfokdY OD;wnf ypfrSwfxm; &rnfESifh rnfokdY OD;pm;ay; aqmif&Guf&rnfqdkonfh tcsufrsm;ESifh pyfvsOf;NyD; rl0g'a&;&m tMuHjyKcsufrsm;udk tqdkjyKxm;ygonf/ xdkUtjyif qif;&JEGrf;yg;rI'Pfudk tqdk;&Gm;qkH; &ifqdkifae&olrsm;twGuf tMuyftwnf; rsm;ESifh MuKHawGU&onfhtcg vlrIumuG,fapmifha&SmufrI ay;Edkif&ef t&if;tjrpfrsm;udk pkpnf;xm;oifhaMumifh tqdkjyKxm;onf/ vlrIu@rsm;wGif oHk;pGJrIyrmPonf jynfolrsm;\ 0ifaiGwdk;wufvmonfESifh trSsjrifhrm; vmrnf jzpfonf/ (ykH-2) odkUaomfvnf; udkifwG,f aqmif&Gufrnfh Xmersm;ESifh 0efxrf;rsm;\ aqmif&Guf EdkifrnfhpGrf;tm;ESifhvnf;csdefnd§aqmif&Guf&efvdktyfonf/ CLOSING THE GAP ed*Hk;csKyftm;jzihf ajymvdkonfhtcsufrSm vuf&Sd aqmif&Guf Expanding access to aeonfh Nidrf;csrf;a&; azmfaqmifrI vkyfief;wGif y#dyu© social services jzpfyGm;cJhonfh a'orsm;wGif vlrI0efaqmifrIrsm; ay;tyfjcif;ESifh jynfolUb@maiGrsm;udk cGJa0&mwGif nDnGwfrSswrI&Sdapa&; udpö&yfrsm;tay:vnf; txl; tav;xm;&ef vdktyfrnf jzpfonf/ 7 &nf&G,fcsufrsm; umvwdk aqmif&Guf&ef umv&Snf aqmif&Guf&ef (wpfESpf) (3ESpf rS 5ESpf) qif;&JEGrf;yg;onfh uav;rsm;twGuf tdrfaxmifpk tajctaetay:rlwnfí ynmoif axmufyHhaMu; ay;onfh OD;wnf ypfrSwfxm;onfh ykHrSef pepfudk ydkrdk aumif;rGefpGm vkyfief;udk wdk;csJUaqmif&Guf&ef/ azmfaqmif&ef/ oHk;pGJjcif; OD;wnf ypfrSwfxm; aqmif&GufEdkif 0efaqmifrI ay;olrsm;twGufpGrf;aqmifrI rIudk jr§ifhwif&ef 2014 ckESpf oef;acgif pDrHcefYcGJa&; pepfazmfaqmif&ef/ pm&if;udk toHk;&ef/ vlwdkif; vTrf;jcKHaprnfh usef;rma&; qif;&JEGrf;yg;olrsm;ESihf xdcdkufvG,fol &if;jrpfrsm; apmihfa&SmufrI &&Sdapa&; vrf;jyajryHk rsm;udk OD;pm;ay;aom b@ma&; pkaqmif;jcif; udk taumiftxnfazmfEdkif&ef b@maiG tEå&m,frsm;rS tumtuG,fay;onfh axmufyHh&ef/ pepfwpf&yf azmfxkwf&ef/ a&SUwef;wGif 0efaqmifrIay;aeaom bwf*sufa&;qGJ&mwGif OD;pm;ay; rl0g' vkyfief;rsm;twGuf b@maiG oHk;pGJEdkifrI ydkrdk oHk;pGJjcif; rsm;ESifh udkufnDrI &Sdap&ef tokH;p&dwf tay: tajccHum jynfaxmifpk tqifhyHhydk; avhvmqef;ppfrIudk ykHrSef aqmif&Guf&ef/ rIudk wdk;jr§ifh&ef/ y#dyu© jzpfyGm;cJhonfh a'orsm;wGif nd§EIdif;nDnGwfjcif;ESifh jynfolUb@maiG cGJa0csxm;jcif;ESifh jynfolU 0efaqmifrIrsm; ay;jcif;wdkYwGif aygif;pyfjcif; nDnTwfrSswrI &Sdap&ef nd§EIdkif; aqmif&Guf&ef/ 8 GROWING TOGETHER tm;vHk;twl zGHUNzdK; wdk;wufjcif; Reducing rural poverty in Myanmar jrefrmEdkifiHwGif aus;vufa'o qif;&JrIudk avSsmhcsjcif; wdkif;jynftwGif; t"duusonfh pD;yGm;a&;tajccH xdkYaMumihf pdkufysdK;a&;u@wGif ukefxkwfpGrf;tm;udk pepfydkif;qdkif&m jyKjyif ajymif;vJa&;rsm;udk aqmif&Guf&ef jr§ihfwifEdkifrnfqkdygu aus;vufae qif;&JEGrf;yg; jrefrmEdkifiH\ aus;vufa'o onf t"duusonf/ olrsm;\ 0ifaiGrsm; wdk;wufvmrnfjzpfNyD; pD;yGm;a&; aus;vufwGif aexdkifonfh vlOD;a&onf EdkifiHhvlOD;a& tajccH pepf ydkif;qdkif&mvnf; ajymif;vJrI jzpfEdkifonf/ pkpkaygif;\ 70 &mcdkifEIef; &SdNyD; wdkif;jynf vkyfom; tiftm; pdkufysKd;a&; u@ ukefxkwfpGrf;tm;onf NrdKUjy vlaerI pkpkaygif;\ wpf0ufausmfausmfonf pdkufysdK;a&; u@ ESifh twl vsifjrefpGm wdk;wufvsuf&Sdonfh a'owGif; wGifvkyfudkifvsuf&Sdonf/ ESpfpOf ykHrkefaps;EIef;rsm;t& EdkifiHrsm;\ Oyrmudk (ykH-3) wGif jrifEdkifrnfjzpfNyD; (ykH-4) *sD'DyDwGif 2011 ckESpfrSpí pdkufysdK;a&; r[kwfaom u@ wGif tqdkyg EdkifiHrsm;\ u@ wGif pkdufysKd;a&;u@ rsm;onf 80 &mcdkifEIef; yg0ifonf/ xdku@rsm;onf yg0ifrI avsmhusvmonfudk awGUEdkifygonf/ pD;yGm;a&; NrdKUjya'orsm;wGif tajcpdkufNyD; vkyfom;rsm;udk pepfydkif;qdkif&m ajymif;vJrIrsm; pwifonfESifh qGJaqmifvsuf&Sdonf/ ukefxkwfpGrf;tm; jrihfrm;onfh wpfNydKifeuf pdkufysKd;a&; u@\ wdk;wufrIrsm; csufcsif; u@rsm;aMumifh 0ifaiGrsm; wdk;wuf&&SdvmNyD; ay:aygufvm&ef rjzpfEdkifao;yg/ tb,faMumifh qdkaomf pm;aomufukef 0,fvdktm;rsm;vnf; vsifjrefpGm pdkufysKd;a&; u@ ukefxkwfpGrf;tm; jrifhrm;vmap&ef jrifhwufvsuf&Sdonf/ tjcm; u@rsm; (Oyrm - o,f,l ydkUaqmifa&;? qufoG,fa&;ESifh ynma&; vkyfief;rsm;) onfvnf; tcsKd;nDnD wdk;wufvm&ef vdktyfaomaMumifh jzpfonf/ 9 ykH-4 pD;yGm;a&; tajccHpepfajymif;vJjcif; (aus;vuf? NrdKUjy ykH-5 pD;yGm;a&; tajccHpepfajymif;vJjcif; (*sD'DyDwGif pkdufysKd;a&; a&TUajymif;jcif;ESihf pdkufysKd;a&; ukefxkwfvkyfrI) ukefxkwfvkyfrI yg0ifrItcsKd; ESihf pdkufysKd;a&; ukefxkwfvkyfrI) Source: WDI and WB Staff Estimates Source: WDI and WB Staff Estimates pdkufysdK;a&;u@\ ukefxkwfpGrf;tm;udk jr§ifhwif ay;tyfcJhonf/ xdkodkUaqmif&GufEdkif&ef jynfolUb@maiG ay;&kHrSsjzifh pD;yGm;a&; tajccH pepf ajymif;vJrIrsm; cGJa0&mwGif A[kdcsKyfudkifrI ajzavSsmhay;jcif; ESifh a&&Snf jzpfay:vm&ef rvkHavmufao;yg/ pD;yGm;a&;ESifh trsKd;om;tqifh vlxkA[dkjyK pDrHudef;vkyfief;rsm;udk vlrIa&; 0efaqmifrIrsm; &&SdEdkifa&;wGif aus;vufae taumiftxnfazmfcJhonf/ jynfolrsm;onf vGefpGm aemufusef aecJhNyD jzpfonf/ xdktcsufonf aus;vufa'o pD;yGm;a&; wkd;wufrI þrl0g'a&;&m tMuHjyKcsufrsm;onf pdkufysdK;a&;u@ twGuf twm;tqD;wpfck jzpfonf/ xdkUtjyif NrdKUjy\ ukefxkwfpGrf;tm; wdk;wuf vmap&ef aqmif&Guf&rnfh ukefxkwfpGrf;tm; jrifhrm;aom vkyfief;rsm;wGif udpö&yfrsm;ESifh jynfolYa&;&m 0efaqmifrI vkyfief;rsm; 0ifa&mufvkyfudkif&ef vdktyfonfh uRrf;usifrIrsm; aqmif&Guf&mwGif aus;vufae jynfolrsm;\ r&SdonfhtwGuf aus;vufrS NrdKUjyodkU a&TUajymif; oabmxm;tjrifrsm; yg0ifrI &Sdvmaprnfh rl0g'rsm;udk tajccsEdkif&efvnf; cufcJaponf/ þudpö&yfrsm;udk azmfjyxm;onf/ xdkYjyif jynfolU b@maiGrsm;udk ajz&Sif;&ef vGefcJhonfh ESpfrsm;twGif; a'oEå& tqifhwGif okH;pGJ&mwGif a'wmESifh owif;tcsuftvufrsm;tay: jynfolYa&;&m 0efaqmifrI vkyfief;rsm;twGuf jynfolU tajccHum rnfodkU OD;wnfypfrSwfxm; aqmif&Guf b@maiGrsm;udk ydkrdk okH;pGJcJhonf/ xdkUtjyif a'oEå&tqifh oifhaMumif; tMuHjyKxm;ygonf/ xdkodkU aqmif&Gufjcif; wGif pDrHudef;a&;qJGjcif;? bwf*swfa&;qGJjcif;? pDrHudef; jzifh jynfolU0efaqmifrIay;&mwGif &v'faumif;rsm; taumiftxnfazmfjcif;qdkif&m wm0efrsm;udk wdk;jr§ifh wdk;wuf &&SdEdkifrnf jzpfonf/ 10 &nf&G,fcsufrsm; umvwdk aqmif&Guf&ef umv&Snf aqmif&Guf&ef (wpfESpf) (3 ESpfrS 5 ESpf) enf;ynm? rsdK;aphrsm;ESihf awmifol ajr,mjyKjyifajymif;vJa&; r[mAsL[mudk ynmay; tpDtpOfrsm;udk jr§ifhwif taumiftxnfazmf&ef/ aqmif&Guf&ef/ pdkufysdK;a&; ukefxkwf pGrf;tm; jr§ihfwifjcif; pkdufysKd;a&; vkyfief;rsm;wGif yk*¾vdu u@ (ESihf EdkifiHjcm;) &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIrsm; 0ifa&muf&ef twm;tqD; jzpfaeonhf Oya' pnf;rsOf;rsm;udk z,f&Sm;&ef/ vlxktajcjyK pDrHudef;ESifh bwf*suf a'oEå& tajccHtaqmuftOD; &if;EDS; a&;qGJjcif;udk jr§ifhwif aqmif&Guf&ef/ jr§KyfESHrItwGuf OD;pm;ay; aiGvHk;aiG&if; 0efaqmifrIrsm; (2012 ckESpf or®w\ vrf;nTefcsuf) oHk;pGJrIudk jyefvnfqef;ppf&ef/ &,loHk;pGJEdkifrIudk jr§ihfwifjcif; jynfolU b@maiGcJGa0okH;pGJrI A[dk xdef;csKyfrI ajzavSsmhaqmif&Gufjcif; r[mAsL[mudk csrSwf&ef/ OD;wnf ypfrSwfxm; aqmif&GufEdkif&ef tcsdefESifh wajy;nDjzpfap&ef vlaerI aus;vufa'o zGHUNzdK;a&; pDrHudef;rsm;wGif tajctaeqdkif&m ppfwrf;rsm;udk yHkrSef apmihfMunhf tuJjzwfjcif; twGufowif; aumuf,l&ef/ vkyfief;pOfrsm;udk xnhfoGif;&ef/ tcsuftvufrsm; 11 BREAKING BUSINESS AS USUAL Fostering competitiveness and a dynamic environment for private sector growth pD;yGm;a&; tajctaeopfrsm; zefwD;jcif; ykH - 6/ urÇmvkH;qdkif&m ,SOfNydKifEkdifrI tnGef;udef; &v'frsm; yk*¾vduu@ zGHUNzdK;wkd;wufa&;twGuf ,SOfNydKifEdkifpGrf;&SdNyD; cdkifrm tm;aumif;onfh ywf0ef;usifwpfck zefwD;jcif; ukefxkwfvkyfief;rsm;ESifh ukefoG,fa&; vkyfief;rsm;tay: twm;tqD;jzpfaeonfh udpö&yfrsm; 2011 ckESpfrS pwifum wjznf;jznf;csif; avSsmhenf;vmonfrSm tjyKoabmaqmifonfh tcsufjzpfNyD; xdktcsufaMumifh jrefrmEdkifiH\ yk*¾vdu pD;yGm;a&;vkyfief;rsm; zGUHNzdK; wdk;wufvmrnfh tvm;tvmrSm tcdkiftrm&Sdaeonf/ Source: World Economic Forum, GCI (2014-2015) rSwfyHkwifxm;aom ukrÜPD ta&twGufonf 2011 ckESpfwGif okH;aomif; &Sd&mrS 2015 ckESpf tapmydkif;wGif ig;aomif; &SpfaxmifcefYtxd wdk;wufvmcJhonf/ EdkifiHjcm; wdkuf&dkuf &if;ESD;jr§KyfEIHrI uwdu0wfrsm;taejzihf 2013 ckESpfwGif tar&duefa':vm 3.6 bDvD,H &Sd&mrS ykH-7/ a'vowGif; vufa&G;pifEdkifiHrsm;\ tqifhowfrSwfcsufrsm; 2014 ckESpfwGif 8 bDvD,Htxd wdk;wufvmcJhonf/ pD;yGm;a&; vkyfief;aqmif&Gufjcif; ppfwrf;t& xdkodkY wdk;wufvmcJhjcif;rSm qufoG,fa&;? o,f,lydkYaqmifa&;ESihf vSsyfppf"gwftm; &&SdrI tajccH taqmuftOD;rsm;udk csJUxGifcJhjcif;aMumifhvnf; jzpfonf/ jrefrmEdkifiHuJhokdU vkyfom;tiftm;ESifh obm0 o,HZmwrsm;tay: tajccHonfh pD;yGm;a&;rsKd;udk ydkifqdkifxm;onfh wdkif;jynfrsKd;wGif xda&mufonfh Oya' pnf;rsOf;rsm; &Sdjcif;onf yk*¾vdu pD;yGm;a&; vkyfief;rsm; a&&Snf zGUHNzdK;wdk;wufEdkif&ef MuD;rm;onfh oufa&mufrI&SdEdkifonf/ xdktcsufESifhtwl jynfolYa&;&m Source: Doing Business indicators tzGJUtpnf;rsm;? tajccHusonfh vlom; &if;jrpfrsm; (txufwGif aqG;aEG;xm;onf)? tajccHtaqmuftOD; 12 rsm;ESifh arc&dk pD;yGm;a&;wnfNidrfrI &Sd&efwdkYonf rMumrDu ajymif;vJrIrsm; &SdcJh&m pD;yGm;a&;vkyfief;rsm; ,SOfNydKifEdkifpGrf;ESifh xkwfvkyfEdkifpGrf;wdkYudk jr§ifhwif rSwfyHkwifjcif; vkyfief;rsm; aqmif&Guf&mwGifvnf; ay;Edkif&eftwGuf ta&;BuD;onf/ odkUaomf wdk;wufrIrsm; &SdcJhonf/ odkYaomf vlenf;pk&if;ESD;jr§KyfESH vkyftm;tiftm;ESifh o,HZmwtay: tajccHonfh olrsm;udumuG k f ,fay;Edkif&eftwGupmcsKyf rsm;touf0ifrI pD;yGm;a&;rSonf ußGrf;usifrIESifh wDxGifrItay: &Sdjcif;ESifh pD;yGm;a&; vkyfief; pm&if;&Sif; aqmif&GufEdkifjcif; tajccHonfh pD;yGm;a&;odkU ul;ajymif;aeonfh ponfh udpörsm;onf vuf&Sd pD;yGm;a&; vkyfief;rsm;\ EdkifiHrsm;wGifrl Oyrmtm;jzifh xda&mufonfh xda&mufrI &Sd&ef ESifh aps;uGuftwGif; topf vkyfom;aps;uGufESifh aps;uGuft&G,ftpm;wdkYu 0ifa&mufvm&ef tvm;tvm &Sdonfh vkyfief;rsm;twGuf ydkíta&;ygonf/ (yHk - 7)4 jrefrmEdkifiHwGif w,fvDzkef; rufvkH;rsm;ay;Edkif&ef twGuf pdefac:rIrsm; &SdaeqJyif qufoG,fa&;vkyfief;rsm; (r&Sdrjzpf vdktyfonfh jzpfonf/ tajccH taqmuftOD;u@) wGif (pD;yGm;a&; qdkif&m Oya'pnf;rsOf;rsm;udk) ajzavSsmh aqmif&Gufay;cJh tqdkyg u@rsm;wGif ,SOfNydKifEdkifpGrf; wdk;wufapjcif;jzifh jcif;aMumifh vGefcJhonfh ESpfESpfrSpwifum tmvkH; jrefrmEdkifiH\ aps;uGuf tvm;tvm aumif;&Sdaom yg0ifonfh wdk;wufrIudk aqmif&GufEdkif&ef u@rsm;wGif &if;ESDjr§KyfESHrIrsm;udk qGJaqmifEdkifrnf taxmuftuljyKEdkifcJhonf/ jzpfonf/ xdkodkY raqmif&GufvSsif trSefwu,f aiGvJEIef; jrihfwufjcif; (real exchange rate appreciation) 'Pfudk Doing Business ppfwrf;wGif jrefrmEdkifiH\ &yfwnfrI cH&Edkifonf/ xdk'Pfudk t&if;tjrpf MuG,f0NyD; EdkifiHwum tqihfrsm;t& yk*¾vdu u@ wdk;wufap&ef ukefoG,fa&; vkyfief;wGif jyefvnf 0ifa&mufvmMuonfh vkyfaqmif&rnfh Oya' pnf;rsOf;qdkif&mwGif vkyfaqmif EdkifiHrsm;wGif MuKHawGUcJh&onf/ jrefrmEdkifiHwGif EdkifiHjcm; p&mrsm;pGm &SdaeaMumif; nTefjyaeonf/ (yHk - 7) aiGaMu; aps;uGufudk ajzavSsmhrIrsm; jyKvkyfcJhjcif;aMumifh 4 urÇmhpD;yGm;a&; zdk&rf Global Competitiveness Index (2014-2015) 13 ,SOfNydKifEdkifpGrf; jr§ihfwifaqmif&Guf&mwGif ta&;BuD;onfh ,ckpmwrf;onf pD;yGm;a&;ESifh ukefoG,fa&; jrefqef ajcvSrf;wpf&yf jzpfcJhonf/ odkY&mwGif vuf&Sdtcsdefü acsmarGUapa&; vkyfief;rsm; xda&mufrI &Sdvmap&ef Oyrmtm;jzifh axmufyHh ydkYaqmifa&;vkyfief;rsm;? rl0g'a&;&mrsm;udk tMuHjyKxm;ygonf/ pD;yGm;a&; taumufcGef vkyfief;pOfrsm;? ukefpnf vkyfief;rsm;qdkif&m Oya'rsm;teuf rMumrDu pDrHcefUcGJonfh vkyfief;rsm; uJhodkYaom ukefoG,fa&; jyXmef;cJhonf &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrI Oya'? ukrÜPDrsm; Oya'? jrefqefacsmarGUapa&;ESihf qdkifonfh vkyfief;rsm;wGif tjiif;yGm;rI ajz&Sif;a&; Oya' wdkYonf Doing Business tzGJUtpnf;ydkdif;qdkif&m tm;enf;csufrsm;aMumifh ppfwrf;wGif azmfjyxm;aom OD;pm;ay; aqmif&Guf&rnfh EdkifiHwum ukefxkwfvkyfrI vrf;aMumif;ESifh qufoG,f vkyfief;rsm;teuf tcsKdUudk wdk;wufvmapEdkifygonf/ aqmif&Guf &mwGif vnf;aumif;? EdkifiHwumESifh ukefoG,frI vkyfief;rsm; jrefqef acsmarGUapa&;twGuf ,SOfjyKdifEdkifpGrf;wGifvnf;aumif; aemufususefae &efukefqdyfurf;wGif ukefpnfrsm; pDrHcefUcGJrIudk ygonf/ jrefrmEdkifiH\ e,fedrdwfcsif; xdpyfvsuf&Sdonfh wdk;wufatmif aqmif&Gufjcif;? taumufcGefqdkif&m EdkifiHrsm;wGif urÇmhvlOD;a& pkpkaygif;\ 40 &mcdkifEIef; vkyfxHk;vkyfenf;rsm;udk &Sif;vif;vG,fulatmif aexdkifvsuf&SdNyD; ¤if;wdkYonf urÇmh *sD'DyD\ 15 &mcdkifEIef; aqmif&Gufjcif;ESihf jrefrmEdkifiH\ oGif;ukefcGefyHkpHudk &SdonfhtwGuf jrefrmEdkifiH\ EdkifiHwum ukefoG,fa&; &Sif;vif; vG,fulatmif aqmif&Gufjcif;wdkYonf EdkifiH\ tvm;tvmrSm tvGef BuD;rm;onf[k ,lqEdkifonf/ e,fedrdwfrsm;udk ausmfvGefum ukefoG,frI jyKvkyf&mwGif ukefusp&dwfrsm;udk avSsmhcsEdkifonf/ umvwdk aqmif&Gufcsufrsm; umv&Snfaqmif&Gufcsufrsm; &nf&G,fcsufrsm; (wpfESpf) (3 ESpfrS 5 ESpf) &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrI rl0g'jyKjyifajymif;vJa&; aps;uGuf jyKjyifajymif;vJ&ef &if;ESD; rsm;udk taumiftxnfazmf&ef/ jr§KyfESHrI? ukrÜPD ESihf tjiif;yGm;rI aumfydk&dwftkyfcsKyfrI jyKjyifajymif;vJ ajz&Sif;jcif; Oya'rsm; jy|mef;&ef/ xda&mufí a&;rsm; aqmif&Guf&ef/ pGrf;aqmif&nf jrihfaom pD;yGm;a&;qdkif&m Doing Business wGif azmfjyxm;onfh Oya'rsm; OD;pm;ay; aqmif&Guf&efrsm;udk taumif txnfazmf&ef/ Oyrm - tao;pm; tjiif;yGm;rI ajz&Sif;a&; vkyfief;pOfopf &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHolrsm;udk umuG,fay;&efESifh wpf&yfudk taumiftxnfazmf&ef/ pmcsKyf pmwrf;rsm; touf0ifrI &Sdap&ef aqmif&Gufay;&ef/ qufoG,fa&;vkyfief; t"du pDrHcsuf? a'owGif; pD;yGm;a&; vkyfief;rsm;ESifh tDvufxa&mepf tpdk;& t"du e,fpyf jzwfausmf aqmif&GufEdkifa&; ukefoG,frI jrefqef vkyfief;pOf? Spectrum vrf;jyajrykHwdkYudk twGuf ukefoG,fa&;pBuø taumif acsmarGUapa&;ESihf twnfjyK&ef/ txnfazmfaerIudk tm;ay;&ef/ ukefoG,frI rl0g' &efukefwGif ukefpnfrsm; pDrHcefUcGJjcif;? wdk;wufapjcif; ukefoG,fa&; jr§ifhwifay;Edkifrnfh taumufcGef &Sif;vif;a&; vkyfief;pOfrsm;? aiGa&;aMu;a&; taxmuftul ydkrdk oGif;ukefcGefESihf oGif;ukefcGef r&Sdonfh &&SdEdkif&ef jr§ifhwif aqmif&Guf&ef/ rl0g'rsm;udk jyKjyifajymif;vJ&ef/ 14 FINANCING THE FUTURE Building an open, modern and tem*wftwGuf aiGa&;aMu;a&; inclusive financial system vlwdkif;twGuf yGihfvif;acwfrDaom aiGa&;aMu;a&;pepf wnfaqmufjcif; ykH -8/ a'owGif; vufa&G;pifEdkifiHrsm;wGif yk*¾vdu u@acs;aiG &&SdrI (*sD'DyD \ &mcdkifEIef;) txufwGif azmfjyxm;ouJhodkU jynfwGif;ESihf jynfy ukefoG,fa&; vkyfief;rsm; wdk;wuf vmjcif;twGuf ta&;ygonfh tcef;u@&Sdygonf/ ,if;rSm 2011 ckeSpfrS 2014 ckESpf twGif;wGif jrefrmEdkifiH\ aiGa&;aMu;a&; The size of the bubbles u@ zGUHNzdK;vmcJhjcif; jzpfonf/ xdkumvtwGif; represent real per capita GDP (constant 2005 US$) yk*¾vduu@twGuf acs;aiGonf ESpfpOf 50 &mcdkifEIef; wdk;vmcJhNyD; bPfrsm;ü aiGtyfESHrI yrmPonf *sD'DyD\ 16 &mcdkifEIef; rS 33 &mcdkifEIef; txd a&muf&Sdvmonf/ jynfolYa&;&m 0efaqmifrI vkyfief;rsm; wdk;wufrI&Sdap&ef aqmif&Guf&mwGifvnf; aiGa&;aMu;a&;u@ 0efaqmifrI rsm;onf ta&;BuD;onfh tcef;u@rS yg0ifcJhonf/ jynfolYa&;&m 0efaqmifrI vkyfief;rsm;onf 2011 Source: WDI, IMF Article IV reports, and WB Staff Estimates ckESpfwGif *sD'DyD\ 17 &mcdkifEIef; &SdcJh&mrS 2014 ckESpfwGif 29&mcdkifEIef; cefYtxd a&muf&Sdvmonf/ ykH - 9/ jrefrmEdkifiHESifh uarÇm'D;,m;EdkifiHwdkU\ acs;aiG&&SdrI tajctae Cambodia: 2.3 commercial bank Branches/100,000 adults in aiGa&;aMu;a&; vkyfief;rsm;onf ¤if;\ 0efaqmifrIrsm;udk 2006 vs. 5.6 in 2014 yk*¾vdupD;yGm;a&;vkyfief;rsm;? jynfolYa&;&m vkyfief;rsm; Myanmar: 1.4 commercial bank ESihf tdrfaxmifpkrsm;twGuf yrmPt&a&m ta&twGuf Branches/100,000 adults in 2010 vs. 3.1 in 2014 t&yg wdk;csJUay;EdkifcJhjcif;aMumifh tm;vkH;yg0ifonfh zGUHNzdK;wkd;wufa&;udk azmfaqmifEdkif&mwGif ta&;ygonfh tcsufwpfck jzpfonf/ jrefrmEdkifiH\ aiGa&;aMu;a&;u@ onf vsifjrefpGm wdk;wufaeaomfvnf; yk*¾vdu u@ twGuf acs;aiGonf *sD'DyD\ 16&mcdkifEIef; om&SdNyD; tjcm;EdkifiHrsm;ESihf EIdif;,SOfygu enf;vsuf&Sdonf/ xdkodkYjzpf&jcif;rSm wdkif;jynf\ pD;yGm;a&; u@ toD;oD;\ zGHUNzdK;rI ESihf wpfpdwfwpfa'o qufpyf Source: WDI, IMF Article IV reports, and WB Staff Estimates 15 aiGa&;aMu;a&; vkyfief;rsm;udk wdk;csJUaqmif&Gufjcif;jzifh aiGa&;aMu;a&; u@aMumifh tm;vkH;tusKd;cHpm;cGifh &&Sdvmap&ef pepfydkif;qdkif&m jyKjyifajymif;vJa&;rsm; udkyg aqmif&GufEdkifonf/ 2016 ckESpfwGif uarÇm'D;,m; EdkifiH\ *sD'DyDwGif 0ifaiGESifh acs;aiGwdkY\ yg0ifrI tcsKd;rSm vuf&Sd jrefrmEdkifiH\ tcsdK;ESihf tvm;wljzpfonf/ &SpfESpftwGif;wGif *sD'DyDwGif yg0ifonfh acs;aiGtcsKd;rSm ig;q wdk;wufvmNyD; t&G,fa&mufNyD; vlwpfodef; twGuf &Sdonfh pD;yGm;a&; bPfcGJ ta&twGufonfvnf; ESpfq jzpfvmcJhonf/ (ykH 9) odkUaomf acs;aiGrsm;udk tvGeftuRHESifh vsifvsifjrefjref wdk;csJUjcif;onf rufc&dk aiGa&;aMu;a&;qdkif&m tEå&m,fESifh MuKHEdkifacs&Sdonfudk owdjyK&rnf jzpfonf/5 xdkodkU wdk;csJUEdkif&ef rl0g'tcsKdUudk wpfNydKifeufwnf; csrSwfaqmif&Guf &rnfjzpfonf/ ,SOfNydKifrIudk jr§ihfwifay;Edkif&eftwGuf tpdk;&taeESifh tcsKdU vkyfief;rsm;ESihf pD;yGm;a&; u@rsm;twGuf oufomonfhEIef;jzifh acs;aiGrsm;ay;jcif;uJhokdU aps;uGufudk ykHysuf aprnfh rl0g'rsKd;udk a&Smif&Sm;&rnf/ b@ma&; pepfwGif tEå&m,frsm;ESifh qdk;usKd; oufa&mufrI&Sdonfh &ydkifcGifhrsm; rsm;jym;vmjcif; vsuf&dSaomaMumifh jzpfonf/ (yHk - 8) aiGa&;aMu;a&; r&Sdap&ef umuG,fay;Edkifrnfh acwfESifh avsmfnDonfh u@udk zGUHNzdK;wdk;wufatmif aqmif&Gufjcif;onf Oya'ESifh MuD;MuyfuGyfuJa&; rlabmifrsm;udk azmfxkwfay; &if;ESD; jr§yfESHrIrsm;qDodkU pkaqmif;aiGrsm; a&muf&SdEdkif&ef? &rnf/ xdkYjyif aiGom;jzifh aiGay;acsrIudk avSsmhcsEdkifrnfh jynfolYa&;&m 0efaqmifrIrsm; ay;Edkif&ef? qif;&J acwfrDSaom aiGay;acsrIpepfrsm; ay:aygufvm&efvnf; EGrf;yg;onfh aus;vufa'orsm;xHodkU a&TUajymif;vkyfom; ulnDay;&rnf/xdktcsufwpfckcsif;pDonfaiGa&;aMu;a&; rsm;\ 0ifaiGrsm;udk vTJay;Edkif&eftwGuf t"du u@ wdk;csJUEdkif&efESifh xdku@wGif tm;vkH; yg0if ta&;ygonfh tcef;u@wGif yg0ifaeonf/ Edkifap&eftwGuf ta&;BuD;onfh tcsufrsm; jzpfMuonf/ 5 WBG, “Cambodia Economic Update: Resilience Amidist a Challenging Environment,” (September 2013) 16 xdktcsufrsm;udk tajccHum aiGa&;aMu;a&; u@wGif tDvufxa&mepf enf;ynmjzihf trsKd;om; aiGay;acsrIpepf jyKjyif ajymif;vJrIrsm;udk tydkif;u@tvdkuf aqmif&Guf udk wnfaqmufjcif;ESifh EdkifiHykdifbPfrsm;udk jyKjyif oGm;Edkif&ef rl0g'rsm;udk tMuHjyK wifjyxm;ygonf/ ajymif;vJrIrsm; aqmif&Gufjcif;wdkYudk tMuHjyKxm;ygonf/ odkUrSom jrefrmEdkifiHwGif tm;vkH; zGUHNzdK;wdk;wufvmEdkif&ef xdkodkY raqmif&GufEdkifygu ,SOfNydKifEdkifpGrf; tm;enf;rnf/ xda&mufpGmESifh tusKd;&SdpGm taxmuftul jyKEdkifrnfh xdkUtjyif aiGa&;aMu;a&; 0efaqmifrI xkwfukef topfrsm; tajccH cdkifrmonfhpepf ay:wGif wnfaqmufxm;onfh wdk;csJUjcif;jzifh aiGa&;aMu;a&;u@udk txl; wdk;csJU aiGa&;aMu;a&; u@wpf&yf ay:xGef;vmEdkifrnf/ aqmif&GufoGm;&efvnf; tMuHjyKxm;onf/ aiGa&;aMu;a&; u@\ Oya'ESifh MuD;MuyfuGyfuJa&; rlabmifudk cdkifrmatmif aqmif&Gufjcif;? acwfrD &nf&G,fcsufrsm; umvwdk aqmif&Guf&ef umv&Snf aqmif&Guf&ef (wpfESpf) (3 ESpfrS 5 ESpf) aiGa&;aMu;a&;u@\ aMuG;NrD odrf;qnf;jcif;ESihf NrD&Sifrsm;\ Oya'a&;&mESifh BuD;Muyf aiGa&;aMu;a&;tzGJUtpnf;rsm; Oya'udk tcGihfta&; twGuf Oya'ESihf BuD;Muyf uGyfuGJrI rlabmifrsm; taumiftxnfazmf&ef/ uGyfuJrI rlabmifwpfck azmfaqmif&ef/ tm;aumif;ckdifrmjcif;/ rdkbdkif; aiGa&;aMu;a&; 0efaqmifrIrsm; aiGa&;aMu;a&;tajccH tygt0if trsKd;om; aiGay;acsrI pepf trsKd;om; aiGay;acsrIpepfudk taumif taqmufttHkukd acwfrD twGuf Oya'ESihf BuD;Muyf uGyfuJrI txnfazmf&ef/ apjcif;/ rlabmif csrSwf&ef/ tBuD;qHk; EdkifiHydkif bPf ESpfck jzpfonfh jrefrmhpD;yGm;a&;bPf ESihf jrefrmhv,f,m aiGa&;aMu;a&;tajccH (MADB - jrefrmh v,f,m zGHUNzdK;a&;bPf zGUHNzdK;a&;bPf jyKjyifajymif;vJa&; taqmufttHkukd acwfrD ESihf MEB - jrefrmhpD;yGm;a&;bPf) wdkYudk r[mAsL[m a&;qGJ taumiftxnf apjcif;/ jyefvnfzGJUpnf;&ef vdktyfaom pdppf azmf&ef/ okH;oyfrIrsm; aqmif&Guf&ef/ pm;oHk;olumuG,fa&; rl0g'rsm; EkdifiHydkifbPfrsm; jyKjyif tao;pm; aiGacs;vkyfief;ESihf tmrcH azmfaqmif&ef/ bPfr[kwfonfh tjcm; vkyfief; MuD;MuyfuGyfuJrI pGrf;&nfudk aiGa&;aMu;a&;u@rsm; \ aps;uGuf ajymif;vJjcif;/ tm;aumif;ap&ef/ zGHUNzdK;a&; ueOD; ajcvSrf;rsm;udk tm;ay;&ef/ 17 ENERGIZING MYANMAR jrefrmhpGrf;tif jr§ihfwifjcif; Enhancing access to sustainable energy for all vlwdkif;twGuf a&&SnfwnfwHhaom pGrf;tif ykH - 10/ vSsyfppf"mwftm; &&SdEdkifrI? vSsyfppf"mwftm; okH;pGJrI ukefxkwfvkyfrI? ,SOfNydKifEdkifpGrf;ESihf jrefrmEdkifiHwGif (kWh per capita) twlwuG zGHUNzdK;wdk;wufa&;twGuf pGrf;tif&,l oHk;pGJEdkifrI jr§ihfwifjcif;onf BuD;rm;aom tusdK;&v'fudk Electric power consumption (KWh per capita) jzpfapEdkifonf/ pGrf;tifudk vufvSrf;rDEdkifonfh aps;EIef;jzihf &,loHk;pGJEdkifjcif;onf ukefxkwfvkyfrIu@ rsm; wdk;csJUEdkif&Hkomru NrdKUjyESihf aus;vufa'orsm;wGif jynfolYa&;&m 0efaqmifrIrsm; ay;&mwGifvnf; ta&;BuD;onf/ vGefcJhaom tESpf 40 twGif; tvSsiftjref zGHUNzdK;wdk;wufcJhaom ta&SUtm&Sa'o EdkifiHrsm;\ wpfOD;us vSsyfppf"mwftm;oHk;pGJrI (kWh per capita) tvQiftjref wdk;wufcJhonf/ jrefrmEdkifiHtaejzihfrl edrfhyg;vsuf &SdaeNyD; urÇmay:wGif tedrfhqHk; EdkifiHrsm; tqifhwGif wnf&Sdaeonf/ Source: WDI and WB Staff Estimates (yHk - 10) tjcm;EdkifiHrsm;\ tawGUtMuHKt& rSefuefaom ykH -11/ EdkifiHtcsKdUwGif vSsyfppf"mwftm; &&SdEdkifrI tajctae (vlOD;a& \ &mcdkifEIef;) rl0g'aMumifh pGrf;tif&&SdrIwdkYonf tcsdefwdktwGif; tvSsiftjref wdk;wufEdkifaMumif;udk jyonf/ (yHk -11) þtaMumif;&if;rsm;aMumihf 2011 ckESpfrS pwifum jrefrmEdkifiHwGif pGrf;tifrl0g'onf t"du tcef;u@rS yg0ifcJhonf/ pGrf;tifu@wGif tzGJUtpnf;ESihf rl0g'rsm; tm;aumif;ap&ef tm;xkwfcJhNyD; vuf&Sdtcsdeftxd jyefYusJvsuf &Sdaeao;um rl0g' yl;aygif;aqmif&Gufjcif; ESihf qHk;jzwfcsufcsonhf tcsdefumvwdkYudk tcuftcJ jzpfapvsuf &Sdonf/ þBuD;rm;aom u@twGuf tzGJUtpnf; jyKjyifajymif;vJjcif;rSm ta&;BuD;NyD; vSsyfppf"mwftm; xkwf,ljcif;? ydkYvTwfjcif;ESihf jzefYjzL;jcif;wdkYtwGuf &if;ESD;jr§KyfESH&ef wpfESpfvSsif Source: WDI and WB Staff Estimates; all countries cover the periods 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2012, except Cambodia, which tar&duefa':vm 2 bDvD,HEIef;jzihf 15 ESpftwGuf does not cover 1990 and Myanmar, which covers only 2012. 18 vdktyfrnfjzpfonf/ EdkifiHwum taxmuftyHhrsm;ESifh ckESpfwGif wyfqifxm;aom vSsyfppfxkwfvkyfEdkifpGrf;\ ESpf&Snf acs;aiGrsm; tygt0if jynfolYt&if;tjrpfrsm; 10&mcdkifEIef;txd yk*¾vdu vSsyfppfxkwfvkyfjzefYjzL;olrsm; onf þrsm;jym;onhf ukefusp&dwftwGuf yg0ifcJhonf/ rvHkavmufEdkifyg/ wpfenf;tm;jzihf pGrf;tifu@ wGif yk*¾vdu&if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrI vdktyfEdkifonf/ u@ þrl0g' pmwrf;rsm;onf trsKd;om; vSsyfppf"mwftm; twGuf b@ma&;t& tvkyfjzpfEdkifrIESihf udkufnDonhf &&Sda&; pDrHudef;taejzihf rl0g'ydkif; yl;aygif;aqmif&GufrI pGrf;tifaps;EIef;rl0g'vnf; vdktyfonf/ wdk;wufum vSsyfppf"mwftm; jzefYa0&mwGif pGrf;aqmif&nf jr§ihfwifNyD; tenf;qHk; wpfESpfvSsif vGefcJhaom av;ESpfwm umvtwGif; rl0g' vSsyfppf"mwftm; csdwfqufoG,fwef;rI ig;odef;odkU jyKjyifajymif;vJa&;rsm;onf ueOD; wdk;wufrIvu©Pm a&muf&Sd&ef t&Sdefjr§ihf taumiftxnfazmf&eftwGuf aumif;rsm;udk jyonf/ vSsyfppfypönf;oGif;ukef jyKjyif tMuHjyKxm;ygonf/ xdktMuHjyKcsufrsm;rSm vSsyfppf ajymif;vJa&;onf vSsyfppfxkwfvkyfolrsm;ESihf ypönf; "mwftm; aps;uGufwGif yGifhvif;jrifomrI&Sdjcif;? wifoGif;olrsm;udk ukefusp&dwf oufomapum ,SOfNydKifrIudk wdk;wufapjcif;? yk*¾vdu &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIudk pm;oHk;olrsm;twGuf aps;EIef;jrihfwufjcif;rS umuG,f tm;ay;onhf BuD;MuyfuGyfuJrI rlabmif a&;qGJjcif;wdkY EdkifcJhonf/ &efukefESihf rEåav; NrdKUrsm;rS vSsyfppf"mwftm; yg0ifonf/ xdkodkU vkyfaqmif&mwGif xdcdkufvG,fonfh jzefYcsda&; vkyfief;rsm;udk jyKjyifajymif;vJNyD; oHk;pGJolrsm;udk umuG,fay;Edkif&ef vdktyfonf/ aumfydka&;&Sif; yHkpH ajymif;vJcJhjcif;onf 2014 ckESpfwGif a&&SnfwGif jrefrmEdkifiH\ pGrf;tif vdktyfrIudk jynhfrSDap&ef pGrf;tm;qHk;&IH;rIudk 16 rS 14 &mcdkifEIef;twGif;om þrl0g' pmwrf;u obm0"mwfaiGUESihf a&tm;wdkYudk &SdapcJhNyD; 2009 ckESpfu cefYrSef;qHk;&IH;rI 23 &mcdkifEIef;xuf xda&mufrIESifh pGrf;aqmif&nf&SdpGm vSsyfppftm; avsmhenf;apcJhonf/ topf jyXmef;vdkufaom xkwf,lEdkifrnfh AsL[m pDrHcsufrsm; &SdpGm a&;qGJ&ef vSsyfppfOya'onf vSsyfppf"mwftm; xkwfvkyfrIwGif tqdkjyKonf/ yk*¾vdu yg0ifrIudk ododomom wdk;wufapcJhNyD; 2015 19 &nf&G,fcsufrsm; umvwdk aqmif&Guf&ef umv&Snf aqmif&Guf&ef (wpfESpf) (3 ESpfrS 5 ESpf) trsdK;om; vSsyfppf"mwftm; &&Sda&; ukefxkwfvkyfrI jzpfpOfrsm;? 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vkyfief;rsm;udk jyefvnfzGJUpnf;um ESE ESifh aus;vufrD;ay;a&; Xme wpfck jyKvkyfjcif;jzihf jrefrmvSsyfppf"mwftm; xkwfvkyfa&; tusdK;&Sdapjcif; wnfaxmif&ef/ jrefrmhvSsyfppf aumfydka&;&Sif; wnfaxmif&ef/ "mwftm;ydkYvTwfa&; pepf pDrHcefYcGJrI tzGJUudk wnfaxmif&ef/ pGrf;tif t&if;tjrpfjy ajryHkqGJa&;qGJ&ef obm0"mwfaiGUu@ pDrHcsuf? a&tm; GIS tajccH jyefvnf jynhfNzdK;jrJ vSsyfppf pDrHcsuf? pGrf;tifr[m obm0ywf0ef;usifESihf pDrHcsuf a&;qGJ&mwGif trsm; jynfoludk pGrf;tif&if;jrpfrsm;jy ajryHk a&;qGJ&ef/ vlrIa&; a&&SnftusdK; wdkifyif aqG;aEG;jcif; tygt0if obm0 obm0"mwfaiGUESihf a&tm;vSsyfppf jzpfxGef;rnhf pDrHcsuf ywf0ef;usifESihf vlrIa&; umuG,frIrsm; pDrHcsufrsm;udk tajccHum yl;aygif; AsL[mcsrSwfjcif; twGuf vrf;nTefcsufrsm;/ xm;onf vSsyfppf xkwf,l ydkYvTwfjcif; pDrHcsufudk wdk;csJU&ef/ 20 PARTICIPATING IN CHANGE tajymif;tvJwGif yg0ifjcif; Promoting public sector accountability to all jynfolYa&;&mu@wGif wm0efcHrI jr§ihfwifa&; jrefrmEdkifiHwGif rSsa0ydkifqdkifonhf om,m0ajymrIrsm; tjcm;EdkifiHrsm;\ tawGUtMuHKrsm;t& jynfolYa&;&m azmfaqmifay;Edkif&ef rl0g'rsm;udk rnfuJhodkU rl0g'wGif jynfolrsm; wufMuGpGm yg0ifjcif;onf aumif;aumif;rGefrGefESihf jrefjrefqefqef taumif aumif;rGefaom tusdK;aus;Zl;rsm; &&SdapaMumif; txnfazmfEdkifrnfqdkonhf tcsufudk tqHk;tjzwf od&onf/ jrefrmEdkifiHwGif yGifhvif;jrifomrI r&Sdjcif;ESihf ay;rnfht&mrSmjynfolYa&;&mu@\yGifhvif;jrifomrIESihf jynfolrsm;\ yg0ifrI tm;enf;jcif;onf vmbfpm;rIESihf wm0efcHrI rnfrSs &Sdonfqdkonfh tcsufjzpfonf/ jynfolYa&;&m u@wGif ,HkMunfrI usqif;rIudk rSsa0ydkifqdkifonhf om,m0ajymrItwGuf rl0g' jyKjyif jzpfaponf/ (yHk - 12) 2011 ckESpfrS pwifum jynfolYa&;&m ajymif;vJa&;onf &Iaxmihfaygif;pHkrS aqmif&Guf&rnf rl0g' csrSwf&mwGif ydkrdk yGifhvif;jrifomvmNyD; jzpfonf/ u@wpfck (Oyrm - uGm[rIudk avSsmhcsjcif;) wjznf;jznf; jyKjyifajymif;vJa&;rsm; vkyfaqmifcJhonf/ wGif wdk;wufvmjcif;onf tjcm; u@wpfck tajymif;tvJtwGuf tm;vkH;\ arSsmfvihfcsufrsm; (Oyrm - tm;vHk;twl zGHUNzdK;wdk;wufjcif;) tay: jrifhrm;aeonfh ,ck tcsdefwGif jynfolYa&;&mu@ tusdK;oufa&mufrI &Sdonf/ u@wpfcktwGif; wm0efcHrI ydkrdk jr§ihfwifEdkifrnfh tcGihfta&;udk &,ljcif;onf rl0g'a&;&m wdk;wufrIrsm;onf vkyfudkifaqmif&Gufae&if; ta&;BuD;onf/ 6 avhvmoif,ljcif;jzifh wdk;wufrIrsm; &vmEdkifonf/ ykH - 12/ urÇmvkH;qdkif&m w&m;rSswrIESifh w&m;Oya'pdk;rdk;rI rl0g' csrSwfolrsm;\ xdef;csKyfrI tjyifbufu tnTef;udef;6 taMumif;&if;rsm;vnf; &SdEdkifonf/ rl0g'a&;&m jyKjyifajymif;vJrIrsm; aqmif&Guf&mwGif tusKd; oufa&mufrnfh olrsm;udk yg0ifapjcif;? jynfolUa&;&m vkyfief;rsm; taumiftxnfazmfaepOf jyifqifEdkif&ef tm;ay;onfh jyKvG,fjyifvG,frIudk jr§ifhwifjcif;wdkYonf jrefrmEdkifiHtaejzifh tmvkH; yg0ifEdkifonfh zGUHNzdK;wdk;wufrIESifh rSsa0ydkifqdkifonhf om,m0ajymrI azmfaqmifEkdifa&; &nfrSef;csufudk &&Sdap&ef taxmuftuljyKEdkifrnf jzpfonf/ Source: The World Justice Project, Rule of Law Index (2014), score 0=weakest and score 1=strongest 6 urÇmvkH;qdkif&m w&m;rSswrIESihf w&m;Oya'pdk;rkd;rI tnTef;udef;onf w&m;Oya' pdk;rdk;rItay: jynfolwdkY ESihf wdkif;jynftwGif; aexdkif onhf ynm&Sifrsm;\ tawGUtMuKH ESihf oabmxm; tjrifrsm; tay: tajccHum wdkif;wmonf/ (wdkif;wmonhf tcsufrSm 8 csufjzpfonf/) &rSwf 1 onf w&m;Oya' pdk;rdk;rI cdkifrmrI&SdaMumif; azmfjyonf/ &rSwfrsm;onf NrdKUBuD; okH;NrdKUwGif aexdkifolrsm;? 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tjcm;aom a'owGif; EdkifiHrsm;onf ig;ESpfwm jyefvnf cGJa0 okH;pGJ&efESifh xda&mufpGm okH;pGJ&ef umvtwGif; taxGaxG &aiGESifh *sD'DyD tcsdK;udk 3 odkUr[kwf aqmif&Guf&rnfjzpfonf/ 2009 ckESpfrS pwifum 4 &mcdkifEIef;yrmP wdk;wufatmif aqmif&GufEdkifcJhonf/ &aiG &&SdrI wdk;wufvmjcif;ESihf acs;aiG&vrf; (yHk - 14) 1990 ckESpf aESmif;ydkif;rsm;ESihf 2000 rsm;jym;vmjcif;wdkYaMumifh jynfolYa&;&m 0efaqmifrI jynfESpfrsm;\ tapmydkif;umvwGif uarÇm'D;,m;EdkifiH\ vkyfief;rsm;twGuf toHk;p&dwfudk yrmPBuD;rm;pGm 2005 ckESpf ykHrSefaps;EIef;t& wpfOD;csif; \ ysrf;rSs *sD'DyD oHk;pGJvmEdkifNyD; ESKdif;csdefvkyfudkifEdkifrnfh b@ma&; yrmPrSm ,aeY jrefrmEdkifiH\ yrmPxuf edrfhNyD; tajctaeudk jzpfaponf/7 2009 ckESpfESihf 2014 2000jynfhESpfrsm;\ tv,fydkif;wGif vmtdkEdkifiH\ ckESpftwGif; taxGaxG tpdk;& tokH;p&dwfonf *sD'DyD\ wpfOD;csif;\ *sD'DyD ysrf;rSs yrmPrSm 2005 ckESpf 7 &mcdkifEIef; rS 15&mcdkifEIef; txd wdk;wufvmcJhonf/ ykHrSef aps;EIef;rsm;t& ,aeY jrefrmEdkifiHESihf twlwlyif xdkumvtwGif; tpdk;&\ &aiGrSm *sD'DyD\ jzpfonf/ tjcm; Oyrm wpfckrSm xdkif;EdkifiHjzpfNyD; 6 &mcdkifEIef;rS 11 &mcdkifEIef;odkY wdk;wufvmcJhonf/ xdkodkY 2000jynfhESpfrsm;\ tapmydkif;wGif tpdk;&\ 0ifaiGrsm; wdk;wufvmcJhjcif;rSm wpfMudrfvSsif wpfvkH;wpfcJwnf; ododomom usqif;rIudk jzpfapcJhonfh pDyGm;a&; &onfh &aiGrsm; (Oyrm - w,fvDzkef;qufoG,fa&; usqif;rIrS jyefvnf evHxl&ef BudK;yrf;cJh&onf/ tpdk;&\ vdkifpifaMu;rsm; &&Sdjcif;) wdkYuJhaom taMumif;t&m &aiG jyefvnf jrifhrm;vm&ef aqmif&Gufcsufrsm;wGif rsm;ESihf us,fjyefYaom tcGeftaumuf trsKd;tpm; tcGefxrf;BuD;rsm; &Hk; aemufwpfck zGihfvSpfEdkifcJhjcif; rl0g'rsm;aMumihf jzpfonf/ onfvnf; wpfck tygt0ifjzpfNyD; ,aeY jrefrmEdkifiH\ BudK;pm;tm;xkwfrIESihf wlnDonf/ ykH - 14/ ykHrSefaps;EIef;rsm;twdkif; *sD'DyD wdk;wufrIEIef;ESifh *sD'DyDwGif ykH-15/ taxGaxG tpdk;& vufusefaiG? &aiGESifh aMuG;NrD? 2014 taxGaxG tpdk;&\ &aiG? 1996-2014 (2015-2020 cefUrSef;) (*sD'DyD \ &mcdkifEIef;) (*sD'DyD \ &mcdkifEIef;) Source: IMF WEO and WB Staff Estimates Source: IMF WEO and WB Staff Estimates 7 urÇmhbPf tkyfpk?“Realinging the Union Budget to Myanmar’s Development Priorities: Myanmar Public Expenditure Review 2015,” Chapter 3, (September 2015) 24 pD;yGm;a&; qufvuf wdk;wufjcif;ESihf tcGefaumufonfh jrefrma&eHESihf obm0"mwfaiGUvkyfief;onf tcGef pepf pDrHcefUcGJa&; jyKjyif ajymif;vJrIrsm; taumif txnf ay;aqmifNyD; tjrwf0ifaiG\wpf0ufukd &,l azmfjcif;onf jrefrmEdkifiH\ tcGefpepf aumif;rGefrIudk xm;Edkifonf/ vuf&Sd tajctaersm;t& ¤if;0ifaiG taxmuf tuljyKum tpdk;&taejzihf tcGefEIef;ay:wGif rsm;udk jynfaxmifpk bwf*suftwGif; aygif;xnhfjcif;rSm &mcdkifEIef;yrmPtvdkuf ydkrdk aumuf,lEdkifaponf/ ydkrdkt"dyÜm,f&Sdonf/tjcm;enf;vrf;wpfckrSmtcGefqdkif&m tcGefxrf;rsm; udk,fwdkif tuJjzwfjcif; pepfudk wdk;csJU rufvkH;ay;rIrsm;udk jyefvnfqef;ppfjcif;jzpfonf/ ,ck aqmif&Gufjcif; tygt0if tcsdKUaom enf;vrf;rsm;udk tcGefrufvkH;rsm;onf tpdk;&\ &aiGtay: tom;wif tajymif;tvJwGif yg0ifjcif; rl0g' a&;&m tMuHjyKcsuf tusdK;oufa&mufrIudk rod&SdbJ ay;aejcif;jzpfonf/ pmwrf;wGif tao;pdwf aqG;aEG;xm;onf/ tjcm;EdkifiHrsm;\ tawGUtMuHKt& tcGef rufvkH;rsm;rSm &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrI qHk;jzwfcsuftay: tusdK;oufa&mufjcif; taxGaxG tpdk;& &aiGrsm; wdk;wuf&&SdapEdkifonfh r&Sday/ txufyg pDrHcefYcGJrIESihf rl0g' ta&;ygonfh tcGeftaumuf rl0g' jyKjyifajymif;vJa&; jyKjyifajymif;vJa&;wdkYudk aygif;pyfaqmif&Gufjcif;jzihf vkyfief;rsm; &Sdonf/8 ta&;BuD;aom enf;vrf;wpfckrSm jrefrmEdkifiHonf aemuf 5 ESpfwGif wpfESpfvSsif [dkuf'&dkumAGef iSm;&rf;&aiG tm;vkH;udk taxGaxG tpdk;& *sD'DyD\ ysrf;rSs 0.5 rS 0.6 &mcdkifEIef;txd tpdk;& &aiG bwf*sufwGif xnhfoGif;jcif; jzpfonf/ vuf&SdtcsdefwGif wdk;wufatmif aqmif&GufEkdifonf/ (yHk -14)9 8 urÇmhbPf tkyfpk “Realinging the Union Budget to Myanmar’s 9 [dkuf'&dkumAGefrsm;udk iSm;&rf;cudk jynfaxmifpk bwf*sufodkY Development Priorities: Myanmar Public Expenditure Review xnhfoGif;&mwGif jzpfvmEdkifaom tusdK;oufa&mufrIudk 2015,” Chapter 2, (September 2015) ydkrdkwdusaom tcsuftvufay: tajccHum jyefvnf oHk;oyf&ef jzpfonf/ 25 ykH 16/ u@tvdkuf okH;pGJrIrsm;\ ta&SU 2013-2015 ykH - 17/ umuG,fa&;? usef;rma&;ESifh ynma&; tokH;p&dwf (taxGaxG tpdk;&\ tokH;p&dwf\ % ) Source: MOF and WB Staff Estimates Source: WDI and WB Staff Estimates txufwGif azmfjycJhonfhtwdkif; taxGaxG tpdk;&\ jrefrmEdkifiHonf A[dkbPfrS umvwkd acs;aiGjzifh &aiGrsm; wdk;wufvmonfhwdkif jynfolUa&;&m 0efaqmifrI bwf*swfvkdaiG jznfhjcif;udk pwif a&Smif&Sm;vmygonf/ vkyfief;rsm;twGuf tokH;p&dwfvdktyfcsufonf ydkrsm; xkdokdUvkyfaqmifcJjcif;onf arc&kd pD;yGm;a&; Edkifygonf/ ,if;wGif pGrf;aqmif&nfqdkif&m twm;tqD; rwnfNidrfrIrsm; jzpfay:&ef taMumif;wpfckjzpfcJhonf/ rsm;vnf; &Sdaeonf/ 2013 ckESpfu jrefrmEdkifiH\ jynfy jynfwGif; acs;aiG aps;uGuf ao;i,fjcif;ESihf EdkifiHtaejzihf aMuG;vufusefrsm;udk z,f&Sm;cJhjcif;aMumifh b@ma&; jynfy aiGacs;olrsm;ESihf jyefvnfqufqHa&;wdkYwGif tajctaeaumif;wpfck&cJhNyD; vdktyfcsufrsm;udk tuefYtowfrsm; &Sdjcif;aMumif; acs;aiG&&SdEdkifrI jznhfqnf;&eftwGuf acs;aiG topfrsm; ,lEdkifaponf/ tcuftcJ jzpfay:aeonf/ tem*wf acs;aiGtopfrsm; vuf&Sd jrefrmEdkifiH\ aMuG;NrDyrmPrSm 2014 ckESpfwGif jyKvkyfvSsif jynfolYaMuG;NrD yrmPtay: oufa&mufrI? *sD'DyD\ 31 &mcdkifEIef; 0ef;usifwGif &SdaeNyD; xdkyrmPrSm jynfolYaMuG;NrD yrmPESihf aMuG;jyefqyfEdkifrI aMuG;NrD cHEdkif&nf&SdrI uefoufcsufatmufwGif&Sdonf/ tajctaewdkYudk t&if od&Sdaqmif&Guf&rnf jzpfonf/ (yHk - 15)10 umvwdkESihf umvvwftwGif; aMuG;jrD tqdkyg twm;tqD;rsm;twGif;rS aemuf 5 ESpfwGif ay;qyfjcif; (twdk;? t&if;? p&dwfrsm;) ESifh jrefrmEdkifiHonf wpfESpfvSsif *sD'DyD\ 2 &mcdkifEIef; txd aiGay:vG,frItwGuf jyóem r&Sday/ ESpf&Snf twdk;enf;onfh acs;aiGrsm;udk ,lEdkifonf/ (yHk - 15) 10 MF-WB Debt Sustainability Analysis for Myanmar in: IMF, “Myanmar – Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultations,” August 14, 2015 26 rSsa0ydkifqdkifonfh om,m0ajymrItwGuf rl0g'rsm;udk taxGaxG 0efaqmifrI bwf*sufrSm 2013 ESihf xda&mufpGm taumiftxnf azmfvdkvSsif rsm;jym;vmaom 2015 tMum; jynfaxmifpk bwf*sufwGif *sD'DyD \ toHk;p&dwftwGuf jyefvnf cGJa0 okH;pGJay;Edkifrnfh b@m 0.8 &mcdkifEIef; yrmP avsmhenf;vmcJhNyD; xdkyrmPudk aiG&yf (fiscal space) udk taumiftxnfazmf&mwGif tvm;wl umvtwGif; vlrIa&;ESihf pD;yGm;a&; arc&dkpD;yGm;a&; wnfNidrfrI rlabmifESifh udkufnD&ef 0efaqmifrIrsm;twGuf ydkrdkoHk;pGJcJhonf/ (yHk - 16) vdktyfonf/ Oyrm ukefusp&dwf ydkrsm;aom umvwdk acs;aiGjzifh ydkrdk oHk;pGJjcif;onf aMuG;NrD a&&Snf&&SdrI yHkpHudk xdkUtjyif ynma&;? usef;rma&;ESihf vlrIumuG,fa&;rsm; xdcdkufEdkifonf/ uGm[rI avSsmhcsjcif;ESihf twlwuG vkyfief;rsm;wGif jynfolUb@maiG ydkrdkoHk;pGJjcif;udk zGHUNzdK;wdk;wufa&; rl0g'twGuf toHk;p&dwfrsm;udk *&kpdkufpOf;pm; aqmif&Gufoihfonf/ pmoifausmif; z,f&Sm;oGm;apEdkifonf/ xdkodkYjzpfvSsif yk*¾vduu@ rsm;odkU axmufyHhaMu; ay;jcif;? tajccH usef;rma&; aiGacs;iSm;rItwGuf r&Sdjzpfum tem*wftwGuf apmifha&SmufrIrsm; ay;tyfjcif;ESifh vlrItaxmuftyHh &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrI twGuf BudK;yrf;rIrsm;udk twm;tqD; ay;jcif; ponfh vkyfief; tpDtpOfrsm;wGif jynfolUb@m jzpfapEdkifonf/ xdkodkYjzpfvSsif aiGaMu;azmif;yGum aiGrsm;udk ydkrdk okH;pGJjcif;onf ynma&;ESihf usef;rma&; pD;yGm;a&; tajctaeopfrsm; zefwD;jcif;rl0g'rsm; &v'frsm; odompGmESifh xda&mufpGm wdk;wufvmaponf/ twGuf ,SOfNydKifEdkifpGrf;udk xdcdkufrnfjzpfonf/ xdktcg odkUaomf tjcm; vkyfief;rsm;wGif b@maiGrsm; jrefrmhpGrf;tif jr§ihfwif&ef yk*¾vdu &if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIudk &kwfw&uf wdk;jr§ihfay;jcif;onf xda&mufrI enf;EdkifNyD; tm;avsmhaprnfjzpfonf/ jynfaxmifpk bwf*sufwGif &nfrSef;xm;onfh jynfolYa&;&m 0efaqmifrI &v'frsm; OD;pmay;vkyfief;rsm;udk jyefvnfjyifqifjcif;onf r&&SdbJ jzpfEdkifonf/ Oyrm - aus;vufa'orsm;wGif OD;pm;ay; rl0g'rsm; twGuf b@maiG &&Sd&ef usef;rma&;Xmersm; wnfaqmuf&ef tokH;p&dwfrsm; enf;vrf;wpfck jzpfonf/ rMumrD umvrsm;u wdk;jr§ifhcsxm;ay;jcif;onf jynfolYa&;&mu@wGif jynfaxmifpk bwf*suf tajymif;tvJrsm;onf xdkodkU jynfolY&if;ESD;jr§KyfESHrIrsm;tay: pDrHcefYcGJEdkifrI pGrf;&nf aqmif&GufrI\ om"u jzpfonf/ Oyrm ppfwyfESihf enf;yg;aejcif;aMumifh tcuftcJjzpfapEdkifonf/ 27 ykH-18/ jrefrmEdkifiH\ u@tvdkuf aiGaMu;okH;pGJrI ESifh tv,f ykH-19/ xyfrH cGJa0 ay;Edkifrnfh b@maiG&yf &&Sd&ef tvwf 0ifaiGedrfU EdkifiHrsm; tvm;tvm&Sdonfh &if;jrpfrsm; (*sD'DyD \ &mcdkifEIef;) Source: WB Staff Estimates Source: IMF GFS and WB Staff Estimates q&m/r rsm; ydkrdkcefYxm;&eftwGuf tokH;p&dwfrsm; u@rsm;tMum; jyefvnfcGJa0oHk;pGJrI jyKvkyf&mwGif ydkrkd wdk;jrifhvmaomfvnf; vuf&SdwGif tqifoifh rSsa0ydkifqdkifonfh om,m0ajymrI twGuf ydkrdk cefYxm;Edkifrnfh t&nftcsif;&Sd q&mrsm; vkHavmufpGm tusdK;&SdEdkifrnhf e,fy,fodkY t&if;tjrpfrsm;udk r&Edkifjcif;aMumifh tcuftcJ MuKH&Edkifonf/ oHk;pGJapjcif;jzihf txufyg aqmif&Gufcsufrsm;udk taxmuftul jyKEdkifonf/ Oyrm usef;rma&; xdkYaMumihf jynfaxmifpk bwf*sufrS vlrIa&; u@rsm;wGif apmihfa&SmufrIwGif ukoa&;rS umuG,fa&;odkY tokH;jyK&ef b@maiGrsm; xyfrHcGJa0ay;&kH oufoufrSsjzifh vnf;aumif;? ynma&;wGif tqihfjrifhynmrS tajccH rvkHavmufay/ Oyrm umuG,fa&;qdkif&m toHk;p&dwf ynmodkYvnf;aumif; ajymif;vJ toHk;jyKjcif;jzpfonf/ jrihfrm;aom EdkifiHrsm;onf toHk;p&dwfrsm;udk xdkodkY aqmif&Gufcsufrsm;udk u@rsm;twGif; usef;rma&;ESihf ynma&;odkY ESpfaygif;rsm;pGm xda&mufrI &&Sdvmapjcif;uvnf; taxmuftul wjznf;jznf;csif; cGJa0 ay;cJhonf/ (yHk - 17) xdkodkY jyKEdkifonf/ 2015 jynfolYa&;&m toHk;p&dwf cGJa0ay;onfh EIef;rSm EdkifiH wpfckcsif;pD\ pD;yGm;a&;? ppfwrf; (2015 Public Expenditure Review)u tzGJUtpnf;rsm;ESihf vlrIa&; udpö&yfrsm;tay: rsm;pGm om"utaejzihf wefzdk;oufomap&ef aq;0g;rsm; rlwnfonf/ 0,f,ljcif;ESihf jyefvnf tpm;xdk;&onhfEIef; wpfESpfrS oHk;ESpfodkY avsmhenf;ap&ef t&nftaoG; txufyg tcsufudk xnfhoGif; pOf;pm;vsuf aumif;rGefonfh jyXmef;pmtkyfrsm; 0,f,lcJhrIwdkYudk jrefrmEdkifiHtaejzihf tpdk;&\ vkyfief;rsm;twGuf azmfjycJhonf/ ,ckvdk u@tvdkuf jyefvnf toHk;p&dwfrsm;udk tv,ftvwf 0ifaiGedrfh EdkifiHrsm;\ cGJa0okH;pGJjcif;ESihf ydkrdk tusKd;&Sdatmif aqmif&Gufjcif;jzihf toHk;p&dwfeD;yg; a&mufvdkvSsif vmrnhf ig;ESpftwGif; aemifig;ESpftwGif; xyfrH tokH;jyKEdkifrnhf aiG&yfonf u@toD;oD;ü jynfolU b@maiG cGJa0csxm;ay;&mwGif ESpfpOf *sD'DyD\ 0.5 &mcdkifEIef; tenf;qkH; &Sd&ef xyfrHokH;pGJEdkifonhf aiG&yfudk *sD'DyD\ 0.3 rS 0.4 cefYrSef;xm;ygonf/ þ cefUrSef;xm;onf ydkrdkwdusonhf &mcdkifEIef;txd &nf&G,fxm;&Sdoihfygonf/ (yHk - 18) qef;ppfavhvmrIrsm;jyKvkyf&ef vdktyfaeygao;onf/ 28 txufyg enf;vrf; rsm;udk aygif;pyf aqmif&Gufjcif;jzifh jrefrmEdkifiHonf aemufig;ESpftwGif; xyfrH tokH;jyKEdkifrnfh aiG&yf (fiscal space) onf *sD'DyD \ 3.4 &mcdkifEIef; ysrf;rSs ESpfpOf &Sdvmrnf jzpfonf/ (ykH 19) wpfenf;tm;jzihf jrefrmEdkifiH\ tpdk;& taxGaxG toHk;p&dwfudk tjcm;aom tv,ftvwf 0ifaiGedrhf EdkifiHrsm;\ p&dwfESihf udkufnDvmap&ef aemufig;ESpftxd ESpfpOf *sD'DyD\ 4 &mcdkifEIef;cefY ysrf;rSs (fiscal space) vdktyfrnfjzpfonf/ xdk udef;*Pef;rsm;onf nTefjy&Hk omjzpfNyD; ¤if;wdkYrSm tqdkjyKcJhaom a&G;cs,fp&m rl0g' wpfckjcif;pD\ ukefusp&dwfESihf ydkrdktao;pdwfonhf cGJjcrf;pdwfjzm avhvmrIrsm;? ydkrdkus,fjyefYaom rufc&dk pD;yGm;a&; wnfNidrfrItay: tusdK;oufa&mufrIrsm; vdktyfonf/ udef;*Pef;rsm;udk azmfjy&jcif;onf tvm;tvm&Sdonhf xyfrHtoHk;jyKEdkifrnfhaiG&yf (fiscal space) tajctaeESihf ¤if;wdkY\ tusdK;qufrsm;udk azmfjy&ef toHk;jyKxm;jcif;jzpfonf/ 29 ed*Hk; 20&mpk tpydkif;u jrefrmEdkifiHonf ta&SUawmiftm&SwGif ykH-20/ wpfcsif;pD *sD'DyD (2005 ckESpfyHkrSefaps;EIef;t& tar&duefa':vmjzifh) tcsrf;omqHk; EdkifiHrsm;xJrS wpfckjzpfonf/ þordkif; tpOftvmonf wdk;wufrIEIef;jrefqefonfh a'orsm; e g ge ra ra ge e ra Av e e twGif;&Sd urÇmhpD;yGm;a&; todkuft0ef;rsm; Av Av a in nd am Ch aila tn e tMum; jrefrmjynf\ rlvae&mrSefodkU jyefvnf Th Vi a&muf&Sda&; [lonfh jyif;jyaom vkHvqE´udk Myanmar 2014 EdkifiHom;rsm;\ pdwfwGif udef;atmif;aeaponf/ xdkYtcsufonf jrefrmEdkifiHtaejzihf cdkifrmaom jyKjyifajymif;vJa&; vkyfaqmif&m vrf;aMumif;wGif wnf&Sdaeonf/ jrefrmEdkifiHonf a'owGif;rS tjcm;aom pGrf;aqmif &nfjrihf EdkifiHrsm;\ twlwuG zGHUNzdK; wdk;wufcJhouJhokdU tvm;tvmaumif;rsm; &Sdonf/ xdkYjyif enf;ynmESihf Source: WDI and WB Staff Estimates twwfynm rSsa0ay;onfh tultnDrsm;aMumifh tjrefEIef;jzihf trDvdkuf&efvnf; tvm;tvm aumif;onf/ Oyrm w&kwfEdkifiHonf 1977 ckESpf wdk;wufpwGif wpfOD;csif; \ *sD'DyDrSm 2011 ykH-21/ wpf&uf0ifaiG tar&duef a':vm 1.90 jzifh ckESpfwGif &Sdonfh jrefrmEdkifiHxuf edrfhNyD; (2005 ckESpf &yfwnfae&onfh qif;&JEGrf;yg;rI OD;a& (2011 PPP) (*sD'DyD \ &mcdkifEIef;) ykHrSefaps;EIef;t& tar&duef a':vm 177 ESihf a':vm 361 toD;oD;) &SdcJhMuonf/ w&kwfEdkifiHonf tESpf 20twGif; wpfOD;csif;\ *sD'DyDudk ig;qeD;yg; wdk;wufatmif aqmif&GufEdkifcJhonf/ (yHk - 20) tqdkyg umvtwGif; w&kwfEdkifiHonf qif;&JEGrf;yg;ol vlOD;a&tcsdK;udk (2011 ckESpf PPP t& wpfaeY0ifaiG 1.90 a':vm) 90 &mcdkifEIef; cefYrS tMurf;zsif; 60&mcdkifEIef; txd avSsmhcsEdkifcJhonf/ 2011 ckESpfwGif 11 &mcdkifEIef; txd qufvuf usqif;cJhonf/ (yHk - 21) AD,uferfEdkifiHwGif zGHUNzdK;rI tpjyKonhf 1990 ckESpfrS yxr tESpf 20 twGif; wpfOD;csif; *sD'DyDrSm (tar&duefa':vm 300 rS 855 odkY 2005 ckESpf ykHrkefaps;EIef;t&) oHk;qeD;yg; wdk;wufcJhonf/ xdkumvtwGif; qif;&JEGrf;yg;ol 50 Source: WDI and WB Staff Estimates &mcdkifEIef; rS 3 &mcdkifEIef;txd usqif;cJhonf/ (yHk - 21) 30 txufyg rl0g'rsm;onf jrefrmEdkifiHudk tvm;wl vkyf&rnf? rnfonfhrl0g'udk a&G;cs,f&rnfudk vrf;aMumif;ay:odkY a&muf&Sdatmif ulnDEdkifaomfvnf; qHk;jzwfoihfonf/ þrl0g' pmwrf;\ &nf&G,fcsufrSm wdk;wufrIudk xdcdkufaprnhf tjcm;aom aqG;aEG;rIrsm; pwif jzpfay:&efjzpfonf/ odkUrSom taMumif;t&mrsm;pGm &Sdaeonf/11 jrefrmEdkifiHonf oufqdkifolrsm; tm;vkH; tMum; oabmwlnDrIudk umvMum&SnfpGm wnf&Sdaeonhf y#dyu©rsm;udk wnfaqmufEdkifrnf/ xdkrSwpfqifh ,HkMunfrI wnfaqmuf tqHk;owfum vlrsdK;pkrsm;tMum;ESihf udk;uG,f&m Edkifjcif;ESifh jyKjyif ajymif;vJrI rsm;udk taumif txnf bmomtkyfpkrsm;tMum; uGJjym;rIrsm;udk jyefvnf azmfEdkifjcif; [lonfh odomxif&Sm;onfh &v'frsm;udk aygif;pnf;Edkif&ef BudK;yrf;vsuf &Sdonf/ txufyg ay:ayguf vmaprnf jzpfonf/ rl0g'rsm;onf þBudK;yrf;rIrsm;udk taxmuftul jzpfapaomfvnf; jrefrmEdkifiH\ zGHUNzdK;wdk;wufrItwGuf tjcm;EdkifiHrsm;wGif tm;vkH;yg0ifonfh zGUHNzdK;wdk;wufa&; wlnDonfh &nfrSef;csuf wpfckudk azmfaqmifEdkifrnhf atmifjrifrIrsm;wGif tarSsmftjrif&SdNyD; qkH;jzwfcsuf cddkifrmonhf acgif;aqmifrIjzihf trsdK;om; nDnTwfa&; cdkifrmonhf acgif;aqmifrI &SdcJhonf/ xdktcsufonf wnfaqmuf&ef vdktyfonf/ þtcsufrsm;onf ,ck rl0g'rsm;twGuf ta&;BuD;onf/ txl;ojzifh rSsa0ydkifqdkifonhf om,m0ajymrItwGuf r&Sdrjzpf rl0g'wpfckudk trsm; oabmrwlnDygu raqmif&Guf&ef tajctaersm; jzpfMuonf/ qHk;jzwfjcif;onf tcGifhta&;wpfck qkH;&IH;oGm;jcif; r[kwfay/ tjcm;enf;vrf;rsm;udk pOf;pm;cGifh&&ef rl0g'jyKjyifajymif;vJrI\ tqHk;pGefaom atmifjrifrI vrf;zGifhay;jcif;[k ,lqEdkifygonf/ xkdodkYjzifh &&Sd&ef jrefrmEdkifiHwGif xdkrl0g'rsm;ESifh ywfouf ydkifqdkif jrefrmEdkifiHwGifa0rSsydkifqdkifEdkifonfhom,m0ajymrIrsm;udk ywfoufrI&Sdonfh twdkif;twmay:wGifvnf; rlwnf azmfaqmifEdkifrnf jzpfonf/ onf/ jrefrmEdkifiH jynfoljynfom;rsm;uomrnfol 11 WBG, “Myanmar – Ending poverty and boosting shared pros- perity in a time of transititon: A Systematic Country Diagnostic,” November 2014 31 &nfnTef;csufrsm; IMF, “Myanmar - Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultations,” August 14, 2015 Republic of the Union of Myanmar, “The 2014 Myanmar Population and Housing Census - Volume 2,” (May 2015) The World Justice Project Rule of Law Index WB and the Commission on Growth and Development, “The Growth Report - Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development,” (2008) WBG, “Cambodia Economic Update: Resilience Amidst a Challenging Environment,” (September 2013) WBG, “Myanmar Economic Monitor,” (October 2015) WBG, “Myanmar - Ending poverty and boosting shared prosperity in a time of transition: A Systematic Country Diagnostic,” November 2014 WBG, “Realigning the Union Budjet to Myanmar’s Development Priorities: Myanmar Public Expenditure Review 2015,” (September 2015) World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Index (2014-2015) 32 ALL ABOARD Policies for shared prosperity in Myanmar ,ck rl0g'a&;&m tMuHjyKcsuf pmwrf;onf “tm;vkH;oGm;MupdkU? rSsa0ydkifqdkifonfh om,m0ajymrIrsm; azmfaqmifEdkifa&;twGuf rl0g'a&;&m tMuHjyKcsufrsm;” teuf wpfckjzpfygonf/ uGm[csufrsm; avSsmhcsjcif; tm;vHk;twlzGYHNzdK;wdk;wufjcif; pD;yGm;a&;tajctaeopfrsm;zefwD;jcif; tem*wftwGuf aiGa&;aMu;a&; jrefrmhpGrf;tifjr§ifhwifjcif; tajymif;tvJwGifyg0ifjcif; ALL ABOARD Policies for shared prosperity in Myanmar The World Bank Myanmar No.57, Pyay Road 61/2 Mile, Hlaing Township, Yangon, Republic of the Union of Myanmar. www.worldbank.org/myanmar www.facebook.com/WorldBankMyanmar myanmar@worldbank.org