85055 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT-EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S CLIMATE TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN CHINA Chris Sall September 2013 THE WORLD BANK THE WORLD BANK Climate Trends and Impacts in China China and Mongolia Sustainable Development Sustainable Development Department East Asia and Pacific Region September 2013 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on maps in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of denoted boundaries. 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Cover photo by Arne Hoel Contents Acknowledgments......................................................................................... v Abstract........................................................................................................... vii Abbreviations.................................................................................................. ix Introduction..................................................................................................... 1 1. Temperatures, Including Extreme Heat and Cold...................................... 4 2. Precipitation and Water Resources............................................................. 8 3. Drought........................................................................................................ 15 4. Floods.......................................................................................................... 18 5. Tropical Cyclones....................................................................................... 20 6. Sea-level Rise.............................................................................................. 22 7. Conclusions................................................................................................. 24 References...................................................................................................... 25 Acknowledgment s This background paper was prepared Staton-Geddes (Operations Analyst, as an input to a series on Climate Risk World Bank) coordinated the editing and Management and Adaptation in China publication process. Anne Himmelfarb (CLIMA). Each of the papers in the CLIMA edited the final draft. Huang Dafei (Climate series outlines a framework for managing Change Specialist, World Bank) and Zhang risks posed by present-day climate Lijun (Operations Assistant, World Bank) variability, extreme weather events, and reviewed and edited the Chinese translation. future climate change to an individual sector in China, including transportation, urban About the East Asia and Pacific water utilities, and forestry. Sustainable Development Discussion Paper Series The paper was written by Chris Sall Sustainable development issues are an integral (Consultant, World Bank; Affiliated part of the development challenge in the East Researcher, Center for International Asia and Pacific (EAP) region. The World Environment and Resource Policy, the Bank’s Sustainable Development Strategy for Fletcher School, Tufts University) under the region provides the conceptual framework the guidance of team leaders Paul Procee for setting priorities, strengthening the policy (Lead Urban Specialist, World Bank) and institutional frameworks for sustainable and Carter Brandon (Lead Economist, development, and addressing key environmental, Sustainable Development, World Bank), social, and rural development challenges through with contributions by Yu Rong (Consultant, projects, programs, policy dialogue, nonlending World Bank). The paper benefited greatly services, and partnerships. The EAP Sustainable from critical review and comments by Rosina Development Discussion Paper series provides a Bierbaum (World Bank Fellow on Climate forum for discussion of good practices and policy Change Adaptation), Abed Khalil (Water issues within the development community and and Climate Risk Management Specialist, with client countries. World Bank), and Mike MacCracken (Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs, EAP Sustainable Development Discussion Papers Climate Institute). Vivian Argueta-Bernal carry the names of the authors and should be cited (Consultant, World Bank) and Zuzana accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and Climate Trends and Impacts in China v Acknowledgments conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely does not guarantee the accuracy of the data those of the authors. They do not necessarily included in this work. The boundaries, colors, represent the views of the International Bank denominations, and other information shown on for Reconstruction and Development/World any map in this work do not imply any judgment Bank and affiliated organizations, or those of on the part of the World Bank concerning the the executive directors of the World Bank or the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or governments they represent. The World Bank acceptance of such boundaries. vi Climate Trends and Impacts in China Abs tract This discussion paper summarizes observed and shifts have occurred in the distribution and projected trends in extreme weather of extreme weather events. The effects of events, present-day climate variability, and extreme weather events, present-day climate future climate change and their impacts variability, and future climate change cut on China’s different regions. Findings are across many different sectors of China’s presented from China’s National Assessment economy. China’s government estimates Report on Climate Change (2007) and Second that direct economic losses from extreme National Assessment Report on Climate weather events cost the country 1–3 percent Change (2011) as well as other studies of gross domestic product each year. As by Chinese and international experts. In China's economy continues to grow, its addition to reviewing the physical climate exposure to weather-related hazards is science, the paper also looks at trends in expected to heighten, especially without economic damages in China from weather- policies to limit building in hazardous areas related hazards. The paper serves as such as floodplains and alleviate non-climate background for a series of discussion papers pressures such as overuse of freshwater on climate risk management and adaptation resources. Effective risk management policies in China. and investments are crucial to reducing the sensitivity and increasing the resilience of The growing body of scientific evidence the country to extreme weather, climate shows that China’s climate is indeed variability, and long-term climate change. changing, especially when climate is viewed at the regional level. Temperatures are rising, precipitation regimes are changing, Climate Trends and Impacts in China vii Abbre v iation s CLIMA Climate Risk Management and Adaptation in China cm centimeter EAP East Asia and Pacific GCM general circulation model or global climate model GDP gross domestic product ha hectare IPCC International Panel on Climate Change km kilometer km2 square kilometer m meter m3 cubic meter mm millimeter OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development NARCC National Assessment Report on Climate Change Climate Trends and Impacts in China ix Introd uct ion Introduction   2 Covering more than 9.6 million km2, China is a vast country with a diverse clima Covering more than 9.6 million km , China losses, damages from droughts and flooding weather system is dominated by monsoons, which bring cold, dry air down from is a vast country with a diverse climate. The have and winters averaged  warm, moist 284 airbillion yuan  up from the  Indian since 2006  and South China S  subcontinent country’s weather system is dominated by (MWR Parts  of China2006–2010; Xinhua  along the southeastern 2012).  coast  receive Since around 2,000 mm of rainfal the arid Northwest receives less than 25 mm. During the summers, temperature monsoons, which bring cold, dry air down 1978, about one-quarter to one-third of the reach more than 35C, while temperatures during the winters in Heilongjiang ca from Siberia during the winters and warm,   country’s farmland has experienced reduced moist air up from the Indian subcontinent As of its large  a result each yields year territory due andto  diverse floods,  conditions,  China is exposed to a wid droughts, related hazards, such as typhoons, heat waves, severe cold, floods, and drought and South China Sea during the summers. hail, wind,  that estimates typhoons,  direct cold from  economic losses spells, freezes,  extreme  weather events cost the co Parts of China along the southeastern coast and gross snow (figure  domestic 1).  product (GDP)each  year (see Xinhua 2010).Among the reported  droughts and flooding have averaged284 billion yuansince 2006 (MWR 2006–20 receive around 2,000 mm of rainfall annually, 1978, about one‐quarter to one‐third of the country’s farmlandhas experiencer while much of the arid Northwest receives due to floods, droughts, wind, hail, typhoons, cold spells, freezes, and snow (fig less than 25 mm. During the summers,   Figure 1: Percent of planted cropland in China Figure  1Percentby affected weather  of planted disasters,  cropland 1978-2008  in China  affected by weather disasters, 19 temperatures in Chongqing routinely reach   more than 35˚C, while temperatures during 40% the winters in Heilongjiang can dip below 35% -40˚C. 30% 25% As a result of its large territory and diverse 20% conditions, China is exposed to a wide 15% array of weather-related hazards, such as typhoons, heat waves, severe cold, floods,   and drought. China’s government estimates   Sources: Sources: NBSNBS 1996a,  1996a, 1996b-2009b, ‐2009b, 2007c‐2007c-2011c,  1996b 2009d, 2011c, 2009d, 2010e; 2010e;  NBS  and MEP 2005‐2011; MWR 2 that direct economic losses from extreme and MEP  2005-2011; NBS “Affected” Notes: MWR area refers to 2006-2010;  the area Xinhua  of planted 2012.  land were  crop yields have declined by at leas   Notes: “Affected” area refers to the area of planted land were weather events cost the country 1–3 percent   crop yields have declined by at least 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) each year The goal of China’s government is to cut direct economic losses from weather d (see Xinhua 2010). Among the reported 2020,1yet this will be no easy feat. China is a rapidly urbanizing middle‐income c economy and a quickly expanding stock of valuable assets such as buildings, roa infrastructure. Without policies such as restrictive zoning codes and higher insu discourage settlement and economic activities in the most hazardous areas, soc will continue to drive up its levels of exposure. At the same time, projected chan may also increase exposure. The current scientific research in China projects tha drought will increase across the North, Northeast, and Northwest; flooding is ex the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Pearl River basins;a higher por projected to come from shorter, intense storms in some regions; the melting of 1 (2010).   Trends and Impacts in China  The goal is stated in CMA Climate 1 7 of 39      Introduction The goal of China’s government is to cut as greater evapotranspiration and water direct economic losses from weather disasters demand from plants leads to more drying in half by 2020,1 yet this will be no easy feat. and relative declines in vegetative growth. China is a rapidly urbanizing middle-income In the southwest and northwest provinces, country with a huge economy and a quickly high levels of warming by midcentury expanding stock of valuable assets such as could also lead to shortages of freshwater buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. from melting glaciers and mountain snows. Without policies such as restrictive zoning Even in regions where annual precipitation codes and higher insurance premiums is expected to increase, such as the North, that discourage settlement and economic Northeast, and Northwest, it is unlikely that activities in the most hazardous areas, social water stress will be alleviated, as absolute and economic forces will continue to drive demand by industries, agriculture, and cities up its levels of exposure. At the same time, continues to rise. projected changes in China’s climate may also increase exposure. The current scientific This discussion paper summarizes observed research in China projects that evaporation and projected trends in extreme weather and drought will increase across the North, events, present-day climate variability, and Northeast, and Northwest; flooding is future climate change and their impacts on expected to increase for the middle and China’s different regions. This summary lower reaches of the Yangtze and Pearl is intended to serve as background for River basins; a higher portion of rainfall a series of discussion papers on climate is projected to come from shorter, intense risk management in adaptation in China. storms in some regions; the melting of Research findings presented in the paper glaciers in the Southwest and Northwest will are drawn from an extensive review of affect river flows downstream; heat waves China’s National Assessment Report on will become more common; and storm Climate Change (NARCC 2007) and Second surges, tidal floods, and rising seas will National Assessment Report on Climate Change threaten a larger area of coastal lands. (NARCC 2011) as well as other studies by Chinese and international experts. Trends Though less dramatic than extreme weather are summarized for average and extreme events, long-term changes in average climate temperatures, precipitation, runoff and water conditions also present risks. Available availability, droughts, floods, typhoons, and research suggests that productivity gains sea-level rise. In addition to reviewing the in agriculture and forestry from longer climate science, the paper also looks at trends growing seasons, CO2 fertilization, and an in economic damages from weather-related expanded area of potentially arable land hazards. may be reversed at higher levels of warming 1 The goal is stated in CMA (2010). 2 Climate Trends and Impacts in China Introduction Unless otherwise indicated, the regions National Assessment Report (NARCC 2011), referred to in this paper are defined illustrated below (map 1). according to the groupings in China’s Second Map Map 1 1: Regions Regions of China, of China, as as De Defined fined by theby the Second Second National National Climate Climate Change Assessment Report Change Assessment Report Regions of China Central North Northwest Northeast Southwest South East No data Source: Based on NARCC 2011 Source: Based on NARCC 2011 Notes: regionscorrespond The regions Notes: The correspond to to those those inin China’s China’s national nati statistical onal sta yearbooks tistical yearbooks 1 of 1 Climate Trends and Impacts in China 3 Introduction 1. Temperatures, Including Extreme and Qian 2008). For the nation, the number Heat and Cold of days each year with extremely high Measurements from weather monitoring temperatures increased at a rate of about four stations across China show that temperatures days per decade from 1965 to 2008 (Zhou and increased an average of 1.4˚C between 1951 Ren 2010).3 Regionally, however, there were and 2009 (NCCAR 2011). Winter days and pronounced differences. Parts of the interior nights have warmed the fastest, especially Northwest experienced the largest increase since the mid-1980s; the number of days with in the number of extremely hot days, while temperatures below freezing has decreased; slight decreases in the number of hot days and the coldest days are now milder (by were seen for parts of the South, Southwest, about 2.5˚C compared to 1951). By contrast, and East (Zhang and Qian 2008; Zhou and warming during the summers has been more Ren 2010). No clear trend was observed in the gradual (NCCAR 2011; Zhou and Ren 2010). number or temperature of hot days for the Yangtze River basin (Gong, Pan, and Wang Changes in temperature have varied 2004; Zhang and Qian 2008). Furthermore, markedly between regions. The most while there is no clear evidence that heat pronounced warming has occurred in the waves (periods of more than six extremely far North and high on the Tibetan Plateau, hot days in a row) have grown more frequent where average temperatures in some areas on a national scale, the number of days each have increased several times faster than year with record-breaking temperatures has the rate for the nation overall (Liu and increased (Zhou and Ren 2010). Extremely Chen 2000). Meanwhile, small parts of hot temperatures have been associated with Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan provinces increased public health problems in large in the Southwest either saw no discernible Chinese cities. In July 2006, for example, temperature change or became slightly a heat wave struck Chongqing. With cooler over the past 60 years (NARCC temperatures in the city reaching as high 2011). 2 Urbanization has also played a as 44.5˚C, an additional 20,000 cases of heat significant, though not fully understood, stroke were recorded (NARCC 2011). The role in warming. The heat island effect from elderly are especially vulnerable to such expanding cities may account for 40 percent extreme heat (Kan et al. 2007). of the warming recorded by China’s network of monitoring stations over the past 50 years Not surprisingly, while extremely hot days (NARCC 2011). have become more frequent, the number of extremely cold days has decreased (Zhang The number of extremely hot days and Qian 2008; Zhou and Ren 2010; Qian experienced each year has increased on the 2011; Gong et al. 2012). On the whole, the whole for China (Zhou and Ren 2010; Zhang number of extremely cold days experienced 2 The reason for this lack of measurable warming in parts of the Southwest is not yet clear (Chen, Liu, and Ma 2002). Possible causes suggested by previous research include reduced solar radiation due to backscatter and cloudiness from human-emitted aerosols in the lower atmosphere. See Li et al. (1995), for example. 3 Days with extremely high temperatures are defined as days for which the highest temperature exceeds a relative threshold far above what is considered normal. Zhou and Ren (2010), for example, define this threshold as 90 percent of the highest daily temperature recorded between 1970 and 2000 for a given monitoring station. 4 Climate Trends and Impacts in China Introduction each year decreased at a rate of seven days Furthermore, milder winters have also led per decade for the nation between 1956 to worse outbreaks of pests (Piao et al. 2010), and 2008. Over these 52 years, the lowest and while the number of heating days has temperature of the coldest days rose by declined, energy savings from this decrease about 3˚C (Zhou and Ren 2010; see also Qian have been offset by population growth, 2011).4 Similarly, the number of frost days housing construction, changes in heating (with low temperatures below freezing) methods, and increased demand for air has also decreased. On average, nationwide conditioning and other electrical appliances. there were 10 fewer frost days annually in 1990 than in 1960 (Zhai and Pan 2003). The According to the Intergovernmental decrease in the number of cold days was Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), average most pronounced for parts of the North and surface temperatures are projected to rise Northeast (Zhang and Qian 2008). another 1˚C to 5˚C globally by 2100 (Meehl et al. 2007), depending on the sensitivity The observed warming in recent decades of the climate to increased atmospheric has benefited farmers in the northern concentrations of greenhouse gases, the provinces by lengthening the growing ambitiousness of the world’s countries season—allowing for earlier planting to reduce emissions, and other uncertain and later harvesting—and by expanding factors. Drawing on results obtained from the area in which crops such as rice can 22 global climate models used in the IPCC’s grow. Warmer springs have contributed Fourth Assessment Report (Solomon et al. to accelerated and more vigorous growth 2007), China’s Second National Climate of forests and grasslands in the North and Change Assessment Report (2011) projects Northwest (see Zhang forthcoming; Sall an increase in average annual temperatures and Brandon forthcoming). Yet despite of 2.5˚C to 4.6˚C for the nation by the end warmer temperatures and fewer days with of this century. Warming is projected to freezing temperatures, the area of cropland continue to be the greatest for the North, reportedly affected by cold snaps and Northwest, Northeast, and Tibetan Plateau. freezing temperatures has actually increased In Xinjiang, for example, middle-of-the- for every region except the Northeast road projections of annual temperatures (where no statistically significant change show 2.5°C to 3.3°C of warming by the was observed). This observed increase in 2050s and 3.3°C to 4.8°C of warming by the exposure was driven almost entirely by the 2080s (see figure 2).6 Most of the additional expanding area of crops being planted. 5 increase in average temperatures will come 4 An extremely cold day is defined by Zhou and Ren (2010) as a day for which the daily low temperature is within 10 percent of the coldest daily temperature recorded for a given monitoring station between 1970 and 2000. As with extreme high temperatures, the way “extremely cold days” are defined and calculated can influence results (see Zhang and Qian 2008). 5 The rates of increase in planted area by region are far greater than the rates for area affected by cold spells and freezing temperatures, with the exception of the eastern provinces, where the planted area has actually decreased, while the area affected by cold snaps and freezes has increased. Results are from author’s calculations using statistics for reported area of cropland affected by cold spells and freezing temperatures by the provinces for 1978 to 2007 (NBS 2009). Note that the observed increase could also be due to improved reporting over the years. Also note that the definitions of regions in the underlying statistical yearbook differ from those used in the Second National Assessment Report on Climate Change. 6 The projections for average annual temperatures in Xinjiang reported here refer to the 20th and 80th percentiles of results from 16 GCMs reviewed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. See figure 2 for data sources. Climate Trends and Impacts in China 5 Introduction from warmer nights (higher lows) (NARCC productivity (biomass growth in plants) will 2011; Li and Zhou 2010), though the results decrease by more than 40 percent for much of of some finer-scale regional models project the country (Wu et al. 2007). Such warming is that summers could warm even faster than expected to have profound negative impacts winters toward the end of this century (Gao, on the functioning of ecosystems—from Shi, and Giorgi 2010, 2011; Yang et al. 2010). the alpine tundra of the Tibetan Plateau to Hotter temperatures during the summer the wetlands of the central provinces to the months could cause greater drying and coral reefs along the southern coast—and to exacerbate water shortages (Piao et al. 2010). increase the risk of irreversible species loss (see Fischlin et al. 2007; Wu and Lü 2009; Ramsar- With additional warming, it is also “very CBD 2007; Xiao et al. 2011; NARCC 2011). likely” (that is, there is a 9 in 10 chance) that Warming also affects people’s health. Health the intensity, frequency, and length of heat effects associated with higher temperatures waves will increase globally (Meehl et al. include higher bacterial and fungal content 2007; Seneviratne et al. 2012).7 In China, the in surface waters, higher survival rates number of hot days per year with average for waterborne pathogens, greater disease temperatures above 35˚C is expected to transmission, and host susceptibility (Harvell increase from 4 to around 20 by the end of et al. 2002; Bates et al. 2008). Research shows the century (NARCC 2011). The number that as winter weather continues to grow of consecutive hot days is also projected to warmer, schistosomiasis could spread to increase (Yang et al. 2010). Meanwhile, a provinces farther north (Zhou et al. 2010; decrease in the number of cold nights and Zhou et al. 2008). Higher concentrations of days over most of the world’s land areas is microbes and other temperature-dependent “virtually certain” (Seneviratne et al. 2012). pollutants in rivers and reservoirs will in turn require greater investment in water treatment Available research shows that additional facilities and processes. There is also evidence warming will have far-reaching and complex that warming is elevating ground-level effects on the health of China’s agriculture, concentrations of ozone and smog in cities ecosystems, and people (NARCC 2011). The (Murray et al. 2012). A rapidly urbanizing area of arable land in northern China will and aging population will only amplify health continue to grow; however, productivity problems related to extreme heat. A recent gains from higher temperatures could be review commissioned by the World Bank undone by the consequent increases in provides additional insight into the dangers evaporation and demand for water (NARCC that high levels of warming are expected to 2011). Some studies indicate that at higher have for China and other countries (see box 1). levels of warming (above 3˚C), net primary 7 Statements about the likelihood of changes presented in this paper follow the standard language set out in Mastrandrea et al. (2010) for the characterization of uncertainty. Outcomes that are “virtually certain” are assigned a 99–100 percent probability of occurring; “very likely” outcomes are assigned a 90–100 percent probability; “likely” outcomes a 66–100 percent probability; “unlikely” outcomes a 0–33 percent probability; “very unlikely” outcomes a 0–10 percent probability; and “exceptionally unlikely” outcomes a 0–1 percent probability. Outcomes that are “about as likely as not” are assigned a 33–66 percent probability. Where this paper does not use the IPCC language set out by Mastrandrea et al. (2010), no statement of likelihood is intended. In these cases, changes are said to be “projected” or “may” or “could” occur. This paper is meant to be a literature review. It does not set out to make an independent scientific assessment of the potential likelihood of observed and projected events, trends, or other outcomes. 6 Climate Trends and Impacts in China Introduction Box 1: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided The current level of ambition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions reflected in the Copenhagen and Cancun pledges will put the world on a path for warming of more than 3°C. If pledges are not met, then there is a 40 percent chance of more than 4°C warming by the end of this century. Turn Down the Heat (2012), a report for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research and Climate Analytics, finds that 4°C of warming is likely to take us into a world of wide-ranging and dangerous risks. One of the greatest dangers of a 4°C warmer world is the increased likelihood of crossing nonlinear tipping points, thus bringing about abrupt changes in climatological, hydrological, and ecological systems. Examples of abrupt changes include the breaking up of the West Antarctic ice sheet, the dieback of the Amazon rainforests, the disintegration of corals, and large- scale crop failures. Nonlinear changes in natural systems will likely have cascading impacts on human development at the national and regional scale. Regional crop failures, for example, could cause spikes in food prices, cutting into wages for poorer households especially, and putting a drag on GDP growth. As has been the case with warming observed so far, developing countries are likely to be affected most by such impacts. The ability of society to cope with large, abrupt changes is limited. As the Potsdam Institute study concludes, “given that uncertainty remains about the full nature and scale of impacts, there is also no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible. A 4°C world is likely to be one in which communities, cities, and countries would experience severe disruptions, damage, and dislocation, with many of these risks spread unequally” (Potsdam Institute 2012, xviii).   Figure 2: Projected changes in average seasonal temperatures, 2050s and 2080s 2050s  2050s  2050s  Winter  Summer  Annual  2080s  2080s  2080s  Winter  Summer  Annual  Change relative to baseline (1961–1990)  1C  2C  3C  4C  No data  Source: Author, using data from Climate Wizard, The Nature Conservancy (accessed July 2013), http://www.climatewizard.org/. Note: The figure shows changes in average temperatures for 2041–2070 and 2061–2090 under a “middle-of-the-road” emissions scenario (SRES A1B) compared to average temperatures in the 1961–1990 baseline climate. The temperature changes shown in the figure are those projected by the “middle” model of an ensemble of 16 global climate models (GCMs). GCM results have been downscaled to a spatial resolution of 0.5° x 0.5°. Climate Trends and Impacts in China 7 Introduction 2. Precipitation and Water Yellow River basin and most of northern Resources China. These trends in spring and summer Annual precipitation did not exhibit rainfall are especially important because a significant change over the last half 50–70 percent of the country’s annual of the 20th century for the nation as a precipitation usually comes during the whole (NARCC 2011; Zhai et al. 2005; summer, and spring and summer are the Ren et al. 2008; Piao et al. 2010). Yet these prime growing seasons (Zhai et al. 2005). overall trends mask significant regional and seasonal variation. Precipitation has Together with warmer temperatures, declined for much of the northeastern part changes in precipitation observed in the of the country (including the Yellow, Liao, northern river basins have affected water and Hai River basins) and increased for resources (NARCC 2011; Wang and Zhang the Yangtze River basin and northwestern 2011). In such dry regions, surface water China (NARCC 2011; Zhai et al. 2005; Ren availability is particularly sensitive to et al. 2008; Piao et al. 2010; Shen 2010). 8 changes in the volume, timing, and intensity These changes may be associated with the of precipitation. Rainfall is concentrated Pacific Decadal Oscillation or a shift in the during just a few months, and year-to-year East Asian summer monsoon system, which variability tends to be greater (Kundzewicz delivered less moisture to northeastern et al. 2007). Since 1950, annual flow volumes China and brought more to the southern measured at gauging stations in mid to lower part of the country (NARCC 2011; Ma and reaches of the Yellow River have declined by Ren 2007; Zhai et al. 2005; Ren et al. 2008). 21–39 percent, while flows in the Hai River The number of rainy days each year has basin have diminished by 24–65 percent decreased everywhere except in parts of (NARCC 2011). By contrast, there were no western China (Zhai, Wang, and Li 2007; significant long-term trends observed for Zhai et al. 2005). This decrease has been runoff in the Huai, Yantgze, and Pearl Rivers offset by a slight but statistically significant (Zhang et al. 2007). increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, especially in Water availability is also highly sensitive south and southwest China (Wang and Qian to nonclimate pressures such as land use 2009; Zhai, Wang, and Li 2007; Zhai et al. patterns and the rising demand for water. 2005). Seasonally, winter precipitation has Nationwide, consumptive water use in increased in Tibet and parts of south China, China has increased from 481 billion m3 in but decreased over most of north China 1987 to 590 billion m 3 in 2011 (see box 2). and the Sichuan basin. Spring precipitation Water use has increased most dramatically has increased in the Southwest and South in regions such as the North China Plain, and decreased over most of northern China where irrigated agriculture has expanded and the mid to upper Yellow River basin. by nearly 8 million hectares over the past 30 Summer rainfall has increased for the years (Li 2010). In fact, there is evidence that Yangtze River basin and decreased for the demand for water had an even larger effect 8 Piao Shilong and his coauthors argue that these regional trends “appear to fall within the bounds of normal decadal variability of rainfall” (Piao. et al. 2010, 44). 8 Climate Trends and Impacts in China Introduction than the climate in reducing river runoff by agriculture, industry, and cities accounted in the northern basins during the late 20th for about 60 percent of the observed change century. In the mid to lower section of the in flow volumes between 1970 and 2000 Yellow River basin, for example, water use (NARCC 2011). Box 2: Water Demand and Scarcity in China China is a water-scarce country. Nationwide, per capita freshwater resources are 2,310 m3 (NBS 2011c), which is about one- quarter the world average. In the dry regions of the North and Northeast, freshwater resources are only 785 m3 per person, about 200 m3 less than the international threshold for “severe” water stress, below which there is a high likelihood of frequent shortages and supply disruptions (see UNDP 2006). Agriculture continues to be the biggest user of water, followed by industry and households, as illustrated in figure B2.1. In 2010, the agricultural sector consumed 370 billion m3 of water; industry consumed 145 billion m3, and households in urban areas used 77 billion m3. Figure B2.1: Water Withdrawals in China by Sector, 1987-2010 450 400 350 Billion cubic meters 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1987 1997 2000 2005 2010 Agriculture Industry Domestic Source: World Bank data, http://data.worldbank.org (accessed September 2012); NBS 2012c There is strong evidence that the continued growth of agriculture and industry, coupled with the lifestyles of an increasingly affluent population, will increase demand for water in the coming decades (Rosegrant, Cai, and Cline 2002; Alcamo, Henrichs, and Rösch 2000; Alcamo et al. 2003; Alcamo, Flörke, and Märker 2007; 2030 Water Resources Group 2009; Hubacekand Sun 2005; Xionget al. 2010). In a reference case scenario, total withdrawals of surface water and groundwater could reach nearly 820 billion m3 by 2030 (2030 Water Resources Group 2009),9 an increase of 35 percent over 2010 (NBS 2011c). In a continuation of current trends, water use by industries and households in cities is projected to grow the fastest. Agricultural water use is projected to decline as more efficient irrigation technologies are introduced and the composition of China’s economic activity gradually shifts toward higher-value-added sectors, though it will continue to account for the largest bulk of water withdrawals (Rosengrant, Cai, and Cline 2002). These results indicate that the growth in demand for China’s scarce resources will continue to exacerbate water stress, even in the absence of climate change. Even under a balanced growth scenario in which local governments give higher priority to environmental protection, Xiong Wei et al. (2010) project that by 2050, all of the major basins currently experiencing severe water stress will face even greater shortages. Baseline projections from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) for global water stress by 2050 also show that stress for all major basins is expected to increase, with the Yellow, Hai, and Liao basins remaining under the greatest pressure (OECD 2012). 9 This business-as-usual projection of China’s water resource requirements by the 2030 Water Resources Group (2009) assumes that existing policy regimes remain in place and that current levels of efficiency hold. It is roughly consistent with earlier projections of China’s water needs in 2025, based on more sophisticated global modeling of water supply and demand by Alcamo, Henrichs, and Rösch (2000); Alcamo et al. (2003); Alcamo, Flörke, and Märker 2007; and Rosegrant, Cai, and Cline (2002). Climate Trends and Impacts in China 9 Introduction How precipitation patterns in China will change temperatures, a northward tracking of mid- over the next decades is not wellestablished latitude storms, and more moisture being (NARCC 2011). Examining the results from 18 transported to these dry regions (Meehl et global climate models included in the IPCC’s al. 2007). In contrast with the global models, Fourth Assessment Report, Li and Zhou however, the regional models reflect a (2010) found that by mid-century (2040–2059) decrease in summer rainfall of around annual precipitation was generally expected to 4 percent nationwide in both a middle- increase for most of China under a middle-of- and high-emissions scenario. The greatest the-road emissions scenario (the A1B scenario), difference is in southwestern China; an with the largest increases expected for parts of average decrease of 6–7 percent is expected the Southwest and the mid to lower reaches during the summers for Tibet and Yunnan. of the Yangtze River. However, the models show little agreement, and the resulting trends Projected changes in precipitation will are statistically weaker than the background continue to influence future water variation or “noise” for all of China except parts availability. Overall, by late century, surface of western Sichuan, Tibet, and the Northeast. runoff is projected to decrease in the North The downscaled results from a subset of seven and Northeast, as the effects of drying global models in the larger ensemble evaluated associated with warmer temperatures by Li and Zhou (presented in figure 3) illustrate outweigh the effects of projected increases this lack of agreement, particularly in the South in rainfall. Runoff in the central, southern, and Southwest. and southwestern provinces, meanwhile, is projected to increase along with heavier By comparison with the coarse-resolution rains in the summers (NARCC 2011). Yet global models, the finer-scale regional climate the size and even the direction of change model (RegCM3) considered by the Second in surface water availability are still highly National Assessment Report on Climate Change uncertain. Projections are highly sensitive to is better at representing the effects of the future emissions scenarios and to biases in country’s varied topography (NARCC 2011). the underlying results of the global climate The results of the underlying study cited by models that are fed into the hydrological the assessment report (Gao, Shi, and Giorgi models (Piao et al. 2010). One study, for 2010, 2011) and other studies using the same example, projected that by 2030, summer model (Gao et al. 2012a, 2012b) are illustrated runoff in the Liao River basin could decrease in figure 4. In this illustration, the RegCM3 by 7 percent in a low-emissions (B2) scenario regional model is driven by two separate or increase by 21 percent in a middle- global models (MIROC3.2 and FvGCM) emissions (A1B) scenario; runoff in the Hai under two separate emissions scenarios (A1B River basin could decrease by 8 percent and A2). Like the global models, the regional in a low-emissions scenario or increase by models show an increase in precipitation 10 percent in a middle-emissions scenario 10 from winter snows and rain across the North (Wang et al. 2012). and Northwest. This may be due to milder 10 Results are based on modeling done by Wang et al. (2012) using a VIC hydrological model and PRECIS climate model to analyze trends from 2021 to 2050. 10 Climate Trends and Impacts in China Introduction Even if annual precipitation increases in the These glaciers provide a crucial supply for water-stressed parts of the North, Northeast, hundreds of millions of users in China and and Northwest, it is unlikely that shortages downstream countries (Erikkson et al. 2009; will be alleviated if upward trajectory in the Xu et al. 2009). For example, meltwater demand for water is not curbed (NARCC accounts for 30–80 percent of water supply 2011). In a “normal” (wetter) climate in the Tarim basin in the Northwest (NARCC scenario, water shortages in the Beijing- 2011). More than 80 percent of China’s Tianjin-Tangshan region are still projected to glaciers have begun to retreat more quickly reach 5 billion m3 per year by 2030, shortages in recent decades (Yao et al. 2004), which has in the Hai-Luan basin could reach 57 billion increased water supply in the short term. m3, shortages in the Yellow River basin could While higher temperatures are expected reach 36 billion m 3, and shortages in the to increase the flow of glacial meltwater Huai River basin could hit 19 billion m3. In in the near term (and cause flooding), by this scenario, the effects of baseline growth mid to late century, the reduced size of in population and economic activity account glaciers, and the water they store, could for 71–83 percent of the shortfalls (Wang and cause shortages downstream (Eriksson et Zhang 2011). al. 2009; Xu et al. 2009). China’s previous National Climate Change Assessment Report Along with rising demand for water, estimated that for a rise in average surface interannual variability in rainfall and the temperatures of 1.9–2.3˚C, glacier coverage proportion of rainfall from short, intense in the Northwest will shrink by 27 percent storms is also projected to increase (Gao et al. (NARCC 2007); by 2100, it is projected that 2012a, 2012b; Shi et al. 2010; NARCC 2011). glacier ice volumes could be 45 percent More than three-quarters of the additional smaller (cited in Ni 2011). The rapid melting precipitation expected for the Northeast of glaciers and reduced snowmelt in alpine and the Yellow and Huai River basins is areas of the Southwest and Northwest is projected to come from days of heavy rain. also associated with landslides, debris flows, As a result, the timing of flows would be flashfloods, and shifts in vegetation types less predictable, and runoff would be more dependent on meltwater. Taken together, difficult to capture and store. Such “lumpy” the altered water balance, the loss of alpine hy d r ol o g y woul d a l s o l ea d t o h i gh e r wetlands, the destruction of permafrost, and concentrations of nonpoint source pollutants the degradation of rangelands observed in in surface waters, reducing the quality of parts of the Southwest and Northwest have water at intake points for water utilities. profound implications for the agricultural and pastoral livelihoods of rural people (Sall In the Southwest and Northwest, the and Brandon forthcoming; Xu et al. 2009; availability of freshwater will also be Erikkson et al. 2009). influenced by the accelerated melting of China’s glaciers. China has more than 46,000 Changes in seasonal precipitation glaciers in the Himalaya, Nyainqêntanglha, along with temperature and potential Kunlun, Karakoram, and Tianshan mountain evapotranspiration will play a pivotal role in ranges (Wang and Liu 2001; Li et al. 2008). the advance or retreat of deserts in arid and Climate Trends and Impacts in China 11 Introduction semi-arid parts of northern and northwestern (general circulation models, or GCMs) China. Between the mid-1950s and the end driving these projections are themselves of the 1990s, more desert area in China was driven by projected changes in precipitation, revegetated than new desert was created they suffer from the same uncertainty as the (Wang et al. 2008). While there is substantial models mentioned above. Results should be debate as to whether climate change or local interpreted with caution, especially because resource use has had a greater influence the models do not take into account changing in reversing desertification (Wang et al. land use patterns, population growth, or 2008, 2009; Chen and Tang 2005; Su et al. government policies that can improve or 2006), it is clear that the climate has played degrade vegetative cover in areas susceptible at least some role. Since the 1980s spring to desertification. precipitation has increased, wind erosion has lessened, and vegetation has anchored sand dunes in Northern and Northwestern China (Wang et al. 2008). Whether these trends will continue in the immediate future is unclear. In the longer term, researchers project that deserts in western and eastern China may begin to expand, while desertification in central China may be reversed. 11 Because the results of the global climate models 11 Results are for the 2040s, as modeled by the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 global climate models under the IPCC SRES A1F1, A2a, A2b, A2c, B2a, and B2b scenarios. The parts of western China where desertification is generally expected to increase include the Taklimakan, Gurbantunggut, Kumutage, and Caldam deserts; the parts of eastern China where desertification is generally expected increase include the Horqin, Otindag, and Hulunbeir deserts. The parts of central China where desertification is generally expected to decrease include the BodainJaran, Tengger, Mu Us, and Hobq deserts (Wang et al. 2009). 12 Climate Trends and Impacts in China Introduction Figure 3: Projected change in annual precipitation for 2041-2060 compared to baseline climate (1961-1990), as represented by seven downscaled global climate models Notes and sources: created with data from global climate models included in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: CCMA- CGCM3.1(T47) (Flato 2005); CSIRO-MK3.0 (Gordon et al. 2002); IPSL-CM4 (Hourdinet al. 2006); MPI_ECHAM5 (Roeckneret al. 2003); NCAR-CCSM3 (Collins et al. 2004); UKMO-HadCM3 (Pope et al. 2000); and UKMO-HadGEM1 (Martin et al. 2004). Data were downscaled to resolution of 30 arc minutes using ClimGen statistical method (Osborn 2009), and obtained from the CCAFS GCM Data Portal (http://www.ccafs-climate.org/). Climate Trends and Impacts in China 13 Introduction Figure 4Projected Figure 4: Projectedchanges in seasonal changes precipitati in seasonal on for the for precipitation 2080s the(2071-2100) comparedcompared 2080s (2071-2100) to baselineto climate in 1970s (1961-1990), under twodynamic regional climate model scenarios baseline climate in 1970s (1961-1990), under twodynamic regional climate model scenarios A B C FvGCM-RegCM3, FvGCM-RegCM3, FvGCM-RegCM3, A2 scenario, A2 scenario, A2 scenario, Winter Summer Annual D E F MIROC-RegCM3, MIROC-RegCM3, MIROC-RegCM3, A1B scenario, A1B scenario, A1B scenario, Winter Summer Annual Change in 2041-2060 relative to 1961-1990 (above) -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% No data Agreement between regional climate scenarios (below) Decrease No Increase No data agreement G H I Scenario Scenario Scenario agreement, agreement, agreement, Winter Summer Annual Sources:FvGCM-RegCM3 results for high emissions scenario (A2), based on Gao X.J. et al. (2010 and 2011); MIROC- Sources: FvGCM-RegCM3 results for high emissions scenario (A2), based on Gao X.J. et al. (2010 and 2011); MIROC-RegCM3results RegCM3results from Gao X.J. et al. (2012a and 2012b); data for both scenarios obtained from China Regional Climate Change Gao ction from Proje X.J. et al. (2012a Data and site (htt 2012b); data for both scenarios obtained from China Regional Climate Change Projection Data site p://www.climatechange-data.cn/). (http://www.climatechange-data.cn/).  20 of 39 14 Climate Trends and Impacts in China Introduction 3. Drought stressed regions has also increased (see figure 5). The observed increase in exposure is due On average,   droughts affected 25 million primarily to the fact that a larger area of land hectares each year from 1977 to 2008 (NBS has been brought under cultivation.12 There is 1996a, 1996b–2009b, 2007c–2011c, 2009d, no evidence that the intensity of drought has 2010e). Direct economic losses from drought worsened (Qian 2011). between 2006 and 2011 were particularly severe, averaging 115 billion yuan at 2011 Beyond the dry lands of China’s north, in prices (MWR 2006–2010; Xinhua 2012). recent years Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Sichuan Provinces have also experienced a As precipitation and soil moisture in the Song, spate of bad droughts. The drought that hit Liao, and Hai River basins has declined, data the Southwest in the winter of 2009–2010, for collected from China’s network of weather instance, caused direct losses of 82.2 billion monitoring stations reveal that the area affected yuan in Yunnan and Guizhou (about 8 by drought in these regions has expanded (Ma percent of their combined GDP in 2009), and and Ren 2007; Zou, Ren, and Zhang 2010; Qian, left 23.3 million people and 16.3 million head Shan, and Zhu 2011; see also Zhai and Zou of livestock facing severe water shortages 2005). The exposure of the agricultural sector to (MWR 2010). drought in the provinces that form these water- Figure 5: Trends in Exposure of Cropland to Drought, 1978-2009 Change  in  area  of  Change  in  portion  of  cropland affected  cropland affected  1,000 ha per year  % points per year Sources: Author, based on NBS 1996a, 1996b-2009b, 2007c-2011c, 2009d, 2010e Notes: Tianjin and Hebei have been merged, as has Sichuan and Chongqing, for consistency across entire the timeframe. ha= hectare. 12 Results are from author’s calculations using sources cited for figure 5. Note that the increase could also reflect improved reporting in disaster losses over the years. Climate Trends and Impacts in China 15 Introduction Droughts have ripple effects that proliferate following severe storms because blown- across a range of sectors in China’s entire down trees and other organic debris increase economy, including the power sector. China the amount of available fuel. Such changes uses about 120 billion m3 of freshwater (20 in disturbance regimes affect the functioning percent of the country’s total water use) of forest ecosystems and lead to reduced every year for mining, processing, and ecosystem services such as soil erosion burning coal (Han 2010; Dai and Cheng control and flood regulation (Sall and 2008). China’s abundant coal reserves are Brandon forthcoming). The adverse effects located in some of the country’s most water- of greater exposure to drought and fire on poor areas, such as Inner Mongolia. Greater forests are especially evident for plantation exposure to droughts in the coal mining forests, which lack diverse groups of species belt thus adds to existing bottlenecks in and show low levels of resilience. With the supply of coal for power production additional warming and drying expected and industry. Even in the water-rich South, for parts of the Northeast, the spring and droughts have had a direct and significant autumn fire seasons will grow longer, and impact on power production. The drought fire danger is projected to rise (Tian et al. that hit southern China in the winter and 2011; Cheng and Yan 2007).13 spring of 2011, for example, lowered water levels in reservoirs and forced dam operators The incidence of drought is projected to to cut back on electricity generation by increase in the North and Northeast (NARCC as much as 48 percent in some provinces 2011). Using the RegCM3 regional climate at a time when electricity demand from model, Li Xinzhou and Liu Xiaodong (2012) manufacturers in coastal areas was spiking project that warming and the northward (see He 2011; Wang T. 2011; Wang W. Z. shift of vegetation zones will lead to greater 2011; Schneider 2011a, 2011b). water demand from plants and worsening droughts in the Northwest, and the area Droughts also amplify the risk of other affected by severe drought in this region will extreme events such as forest fires. In begin to trend upward by the 2040s. 14 By Chongqing, for example, wildfires rarely the end of the century, exposure to drought occur during the summer monsoons. In will grow increasingly significant. Similarly, the summer of 2006, however, Chongqing McKinsey & Company (Woetzel et al. 2009) battled 158 separate incidents of forest fires, project that agricultural drought could as the province was experiencing a one-in- worsen for most of the Northeast by the 100-year drought (Zhao et al 2009; see also 2040s as warming becomes more pronounced Zhang forthcoming). The heightened risk and precipitation during the critical spring of forest fire is especially severe in the years months decreases.15 With warmer and drier 13 In the United States, researchers have estimated that 1°C of warming is associated with a 200–400 percent increase in fire danger for the western states (NRC 2011). 14 The upward trend is projected for low-(B1), medium- (A1B), and high- (A2) emission scenarios. 15 Projections are based on the results of the PRECIS regional climate model, run under a high- (A2) emissions scenario. 16 Climate Trends and Impacts in China Introduction conditions projected by the regional climate and that there are large discrepancies in the models for parts of the South, drought could results of the different GCMs used in the also worsen in that region, especially during IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report to project the dry winter months (NARCC 2011). By changes in soil moisture associated with contrast, Zhao et al. (2011) project that the drought (Wang 2005; Seneviratne et al. 2010; drying effect of increased evapotranspiration see also IPCC 2012). from crops in Tibet over the next 40 years will likely be outweighed by precipitation increases projected by the PRECIS model, and there will be fewer droughts. Note that these projections for drought are highly uncertain, Climate Trends and Impacts in China 17 Introduction 4. Floods up (NARCC 2011). With more rainfall from severe storms during the spring and summer, Floods affected about 10 million hectares flooding events have been more frequent each year between 1977 and 2008 (NBS 1996a, along the Yangtze since the 1970s (Renet al. 1996b–2009b, 2007c–2011c, 2009d, 2010e). 2008; Zhaiet al. 2005; NARCC 2007). Since 1990, they have caused direct economic losses of 174 billion yuan annually (figure 6). Intense rainfall, flooding, and other water- These losses include damages to agriculture, related hazards are particularly damaging forestry, aquaculture, transportation, water to infrastructure assets. Erosion from such utilities, and other sectors. hazards shortens the life-span of road and rail networks and causes sudden drops Since 1978, the area of farmland inundated in service levels (Ollivier forthcoming). by floods in the upper Yangtze River basin, Disruptions of transportation services in Tibetan Plateau, and parts of the Southhas cities are exacerbated by poor drainage shown a significant upward trend (figure systems, many of which are inadequate to 7). 16 Evidence suggests that variability in deal with current weather risks let alone with the climate contributed at least in part to even more frequent or severe flooding events this trend. Since the 1950s, there has been (Ollivier forthcoming; Jensen forthcoming). a slight but statistically significant increase Floods and mudflows also have adverse in the observed frequency and intensity of impacts on hydropower reservoirs. As heavy precipitation events for the Pearl River China’s stock of infrastructure assets basinand 4. Floods parts of the upper  Yangtze River continues to grow at a rapid pace, greater   Chen, and Ren 2010). As days of basin (Chen, exposure to floods and other water-related extreme precipitation Floods affectedincreased  about 10 for the middle  million  hectares each year between 1977 and 2008 (NBS 1996a, 1996b–2009b,  hazards could lead to higher life-cycle costs reaches of the and lower 2007c–2011c, Yangtze,  2009d, the share  2010e). of  Since 1990, they have caused direct economic losses of174 billionyuan  annually  (figure  6). These losses and more expensive  investments. intense storms in total precipitation include damages also  went  to agriculture, forestry, aquaculture, transportation,  water utilities, and other sectors.    FigureFigure  6Direct Direct Economic 6: Economic Losses  Losses from from Flooding  Flooding in  in China, China,  1990 1990-2011 ‐2011   400 Billion yuan (2011 prices) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0   Sources:  NBS Sources: NBS 1996a; MWR  1996a; 2006-2010;  MWR Xinhua  2006‐2010; 2012  2012   Xinhua   16 Since 1978, the area of farmland inundated by floods in the upper Yangtze River Results are from author’s calculations using sources cited for figure 7. Note that the increase could also reflect  basin, Tibetan Plateau,  improved reporting andover in disaster losses  parts the of the Southhas shown a significant upward trend (figure 7).16Evidence suggests that  years. variability in the climate contributed at least in part to this trend. Since the 1950s, there has been a  slight but statistically significant increase in the observed frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation  events for the Pearl River basinand parts of the upper Yangtze River basin (Chen, Chen, and Ren2010).  18 Climate Trends and Impacts in China As days of extreme precipitation increased for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze, the share of  intense storms in total precipitation also went up(NARCC 2011). With more rainfall from severe storms  Introduction With a doubling of preindustrial atmospheric That said, floods are far from being purely concentrations of CO2 by 2070, the number of “natural” disasters and are determined by rainy days in southern China is not expected a myriad of other nonclimate factorssuch to increase much, but precipitation is, meaning as upstream land use and erosion, the that more of southern China’s precipitation construction of dams and other infrastructure will likely come from shorter, more intense in river channels, the health of water- storms (NARCC 2007). Under a high-emissions retaining ecosystems such as forests and scenario (A2) and a RegCM3 regional model, wetlands, and encroachment on floodplains. it is projected that there will be a 10–50 percent Because of the intricate link between floods increase in the number of days of heavy rain and future societal choices, it is unclear (days with more than 20 mm of rainfall) how exactly the risk of flooding for China’s annually for the mid to lower Yangtze and the different regions will be altered by projected Pearl River basins by the 2080s (NARCC 2011). shifts in precipitation patterns. Similar results are obtained from the PRECIS regional model for a low-emissions scenario (B2) (Zhang et al. 2006). Along with increases in summer runoff for the central, southern, and eastern provinces, this increase in days of heavy rain could signal more flooding. Fujian, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Yunnan Provinces are at greatest risk (NCCAR 2007; Zhai et al. 2009). Figure 7: Trends in Exposure of Cropland to Flooding, 1978-2009 Change in area of Change in portion of cropland affected cropland affected 1,000 ha per year % points per year Sources: Author, based on NBS 1996a, 1996b-2009b, 2007c-2011c, 2009d, 2010e Notes: Tianjin and Hebei have been merged, as have Sichuan and Chongqing, for consistency across the entire timeframe. ha= hectare. Climate Trends and Impacts in China 19 Introduction 5. Tropical Cyclones The IPCC’s assessment is that globally, Both the frequency of tropical cyclones tropical cyclone wind speeds will “likely” affecting China and the rainfall brought by increase, while the frequency of tropical these storms have decreased over the past 50 cyclones will “likely” decrease or show years. Yet their destructive force has grown, no change (IPCC 2012). Many researchers as indicated by higher maximum wind speeds agree that future warming is likely to and lower barometric pressure in storm lead to greater storm intensities and centers (NARCC 2011; Ren et al. 2006; Lei, destructive potential (Emanuel 2005; Xu, and Ren 2009). The number of residents Emanuel, Sundararajan, and Williams 2008; affected by tropical cyclones and storm surges Tracy, Trumbull, and Loh 2006). Others, has increased, as more people have migrated however, claim that typhoons affecting from the interior provinces to the coastal areas China will likely become more frequent but in the East and South. As a result of rapid less powerful (see Zhao and Jiang 2010). economic development, economic losses According to analysis done for the World caused by tropical storms of the same intensity Bank of potential damages from typhoon have also shown a significant upward trend winds under four different climate scenarios, (NARCC 2007). Direct economic losses from annual losses in Fujian and Guangdong tropical cyclones averaged 0.38 percent of Provinces are expected to increase 1 billion China’s GDP for the years from 1983 to 2006. to 2 billion yuan over 2011 levels by the Although Guangdong is hit most frequently end of this century (2081–2100), assuming by tropical cyclones, Zhejiang typically that today’s level of development in those experiences the heaviest losses. Together, provinces remains constant and the value of four provinces (Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, assets exposed to storms does not increase and Hainan) account for nearly two-thirds of (Katz and Kaheil 2012). Increased wind total damages from tropical cyclones suffered damage in these provinces is primarily the in China each year (Zhang, Wu, and Liu result of more typhoons making landfall 2009). Table 1 presents information on the 10 each year. A slight increase in wind speeds costliest tropical cyclones in China between for the strongest typhoons is expected for 1983 and 2006. Hainan and Zhejiang. By comparison, taking into account higher levels of development (and thus greater exposure of assets to storms), Mendelsohn et al. (2012) estimate that economic losses from tropical cyclones in East Asia will grow by more than a factor of three between 1981–2000 and 2081–2100, even in the absence of climate change. 20 Climate Trends and Impacts in China Introduction Table 1: China’s Ten CostliestTropical Cyclones, 1983-2006 Name and number Year Areasworst affected Direct Losses (Billion RMB) Herb (No. 9608) 1996 Fujian, Taiwan 90.05 Winnie (No. 9711) 1997 Zhejiang 59.70 Bilis (No. 0604) 2006 Fujian, Zhejiang 42.80 Sally (No. 9615) 1996 Guangdong 30.16 Fred (No. 9417) 1994 Zhejiang 29.50 Rananim (No. 0414) 2004 Zhejiang 26.34 Saomai (No. 0608) 2006 Fujian, Zhejiang 24.15 Utor (No. 0104) 2001 Guangdong 23.81 Matsa (No. 0509) 2005 Zhejiang 22.74 Tim (No. 9406) 1994 Fujian, Guangdong 22.03 Source: Zhang Q. et al 2009 Notes: Year 2010 prices. Climate Trends and Impacts in China 21 Introduction 6. Sea-level Rise China’s State Oceanic Administration projects that by the end of the 2030s, sea level China's coastal areas account for only 16.8 along China’s southern and eastern coasts percent of the country’s total territory and will have risen 8–13 cm over 2010 levels (SOA contribute 72.5 percent of the national GDP 2010). Rising seas and increased exposure (Chen 1997; NBS 2000c). Low-lying coastal to storm surges and tidal flooding present a zones are the most economically developed significant risk to coastal infrastructure. The areas of China. They are also the most Second National Assessment Report on Climate heavily populated; an estimated 80 million Change projects that by 2030 standards for people live in coastalcities exposed to sea- seawall construction will require heights 40 level rise and storm surges (figure 8). percent above current standards to project against one-in-100-year events. If seawalls China's coastal sea level has increased at an are not elevated above today’s standards, average rate of 2.5 mm per year during the then by the 2080s, around 18,000 km2 of land past 50 years, higher than the global average in China’s heavily populated deltas could of 1–2 mm per year. Local rates of sea-level be inundated by higher seas (NARCC 2011). changes vary considerably, and have been With additional sea-level rise, saltwater much higher in coastal cities that are sinking will continue to intrude on groundwater due to the weight of construction and resources in coastal areas, putting greater overwithdrawals of groundwater. By 2005, pressure on the supply of freshwater and more than 90 Chinese cities were affected by potentially requiring investment in more land subsidence. Central parts of Shanghai expensive solutions such as desalination have sunk by more than 2 m since the 1920s. (Jensen forthcoming). Additional sea-level Direct and indirect losses attributed to land rise may also compromise the operational subsidence in Shanghai from the 1950s to the and environmental safety of nuclear power early 2000s totaled 290 billion yuan. Losses plants constructed in coastal areas. “Green” have also been substantial in Tianjin, parts of infrastructure such as coastal mangroves, which have subsided by more than 3 m since wetlands, coral reefs, and sand dunes can the 1920s (Li et al. 2004; Xu et al. 2008; Yin, help reduce the need for higher and more Zhang, and Li 2006). expensive hard defenses. Internationally, there is growing evidence that protecting natural ecosystems is a cost-effective solution for reducing climate risks (Sall and Brandon forthcoming; World Bank 2009). 22 Climate Trends and Impacts in China 6. Sea-level Rise   Introduction China's coastal areas account for only 16.8 percent of the country’s total territory and contribute 72.5  percent of the national GDP (Chen 1997; NBS 2000c). Low‐lying coastal zones are the most economically  developed areas of China. They are also the most heavily populated; an estimated 80 million people live  in coastalcities exposed to sea‐level rise and storm surges (figure 8).     Figure 8: Vulnerability of Population to Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges,  to Sea Figure 8Vulnerability of PopulationTop 20‐level Rise and Storm Surges, Top 20 Countries  Countries     80,000,000 Urban population in low‐lying coastal area 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0     Source: McGranahan, Balk, and Anderson 2007 Source:McGranahan, Balk, and Anderson 2007  Note: Note:A “low-lying  A  coastal “low‐lying coastal area”  area” is defined  is defined as “the  as “the contiguous  contiguous area the  area along along the  coast coast  that that  is less is 10  than less than above  meters 10  sea level."   meters above sea level." China's coastal sea level has increased at an average rate of 2.5mm per year during the past 50 years,  higher than the global average of 1–2mm per year. Local rates of sea‐level changes vary considerably,  and have been much higher in coastal citiesthat are sinking due to the weightof construction and  overwithdrawals of groundwater. By 2005, more than 90 Chinese cities were affected by land  subsidence. Central parts ofShanghai have sunk by more than 2 m since the 1920s.Direct and indirect  losses attributed to land subsidence in Shanghai from the 1950s to the early 2000s totaled 290  billionyuan. Losses have also been substantial in Tianjin, parts of whichhave subsided by more than 3 m  since the 1920s(Li et al. 2004; Xuet al. 2008; Yin, Zhang, and Li 2006).     China’s State Oceanic Administration projects that by the end of the 2030s, sea level along China’s  southern and eastern coasts will have risen 8–13 cmover 2010levels (SOA 2010). Rising seas and  increased exposure to storm surges and tidal flooding present a significant risk to coastal infrastructure.  The Second National Assessment Report on Climate Changeprojects that by 2030 standards for seawall  construction will require heights 40percent above current standards to project against one‐in‐100‐year  26 of 39      Climate Trends and Impacts in China 23 Introduction 7. Conclusions One of the biggest knowledge gaps facing both scientists and policy makers is how The growing body of scientific evidence the impacts of climate change will be shows that China’s climate is indeed amplified or moderated by China’s future changing, especially when climate is viewed development. While the unpredictability at the regional level. Temperatures are of distant trends in China’s economy and rising, precipitation regimes are changing, society adds to the uncertainty of climate and shifts have occurred in the distribution change, it also points to the important role of extreme weather events. Changes vary of government action. Effective policies and remarkably from one region to the next, but investments to manage risks are imperative the effects of more frequent extreme weather for reducing the sensitivity and increasing events and other long-term changes cut the resilience of the country to climate across the whole of China’s economy. change. The other papers in the series pick up on this challenge by providing a framework for assessing risks and choosing appropriate policies and investments for specific sectors. 24 Climate Trends and Impacts in China Introduction References 2030 Water Resources Group. 2009. Charting Bates , B. C . , Z .W. K und z ewic z, S . Wu , Our Water Future: Economic Frameworks to and J . P . P alutikof , eds. 2 008 . C limate Inform Decision-Making. Change and Water. Technical Paper of the http://www.2 030 waterresources g roup. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. com/water_full/ C hartin g _ O ur_Water_ Geneva: IPCC Secretariat. Future_Final.pdf. C hen Y u , C hen Xian y an , and Ren G uo y u Alcamo, J., P. Döll, T. Henrichs, F. Kaspar, ( 陈 峪 , 陈 鲜 艳 , 任 国 ). 2010. “Extreme B. Lehner, T. Rösch, and S. Siebert. 2003. Precipitation Events in China’s Main River “Global Estimates of Water Withdrawals Basins” ( 中国主要河流流域极端降水变化特 and Availability under Current and Future 征 ). 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