ON THE MEASUREMENT OF
                   MARKET-ORIENTED REFORMS*




              Norman V. Loayza                            Raimundo Soto
                    World Bank                     Catholic University of Chile



                                  December 2003




                                       Abstract

This paper presents policy- and outcome-based ways of measuring the progress of
market-oriented reforms in both traditional areas of first-generation reform and the areas
of institutional reform that have been emphasized lately. These policy areas are the
domestic financial system; international financial markets; international trade; the labor
market; the tax system; public infrastructure and public firms; the legal and regulatory
framework; and governance. For each of them, first, we discuss the general principles
underlying market-oriented reform; second, we present various indicators of the policy
stance in the area in question; and third, we present various outcome indicators of the
policy stance.




*Patricia Macchi provided excellent research assistance. We are grateful to José Fanelli,
Gary McMahon, and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel for valuable comments and suggestions.
The usual disclaimer applies.


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  ON THE MEASUREMENT OF MARKET-ORIENTED REFORMS


I. INTRODUCTION

Basic Concepts

         A market-oriented reform is a policy measure that allows and induces the

competitive participation of private agents in a sector, activity, or market.1 Thus, the key

concepts underlying market-oriented reforms are private participation and competition

among private agents. In most cases, a market-oriented reform implies the reduction in

depth and scope of government participation and interference in an economic activity.

This is the case of, for example, international trade opening, where the reduction of tariff

rates and elimination of quotas are indications of market-oriented reform. In other cases,

however, government intervention is necessary precisely to encourage competition. This

usually occurs when the "industrial organization" of the activity or sector in question is

such that it lends itself to asymmetries of information, moral hazard, and natural

monopolies.       An example of market-oriented government participation is financial

regulation, specifically when it is designed to protect creditor rights and make banking

operations transparent.

         A pedagogical, though rather simplistic, characterization of market-oriented

reform can be made through a "Laffer-curve" approach.2 For any economic activity, two

extreme government positions can be identified: Full government involvement and total

laissez-faire. In between, there is a large variety of levels and types of state intervention.

One of them is a market-oriented optimum of government participation. Below such

level, there is excessive laissez-faire and the economy would benefit from additional state

involvement. Conversely, above the optimum level, there is too much government

interference and its involvement should be reduced. Given the historical policy trends




1The definition of market-oriented reforms we adopt in this paper is rather narrow. It focuses on the issue
of economic efficiency and deals with policies and institutions from that perspective. Our definition
abstracts from other political or institutional changes needed to initiate reforms or ensure their
sustainability. The literature on market-oriented reforms is rich and complex. For essays on basic concepts
and meaning of reform, see Williamson (1994, 2000), Sachs (1995), Rodrik (1996), and Kornai (1999,
2000).
2For an application of the "Laffer-curve" approach to optimal taxation in endogenous growth models, see
Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992).



                                                                                                         2

that favored state intervention, in most cases government involvement is excessive;

therefore market-oriented reform implies streamlining it.

          In the preceding paragraph, we introduced the notion of optimality without

defining it properly.          Establishing the link between market-oriented reforms and

optimality is complex and here we limit ourselves to a few basic ideas. In this paper, the

criterion to define optimality is given by the most efficient allocation and use of scarce

resources. For simplicity, we will call it "economic optimality." Our first working

assumption is that the participation of private agents in a competitive environment (which

is the immediate goal of market-oriented reform) leads to economic optimality.3

          An important caveat is that a social or political best situation may not coincide

with an economic optimum. This would imply that a market-oriented reform that leads to

an economic optimum might not necessarily produce a socially desirable outcome, such

as the reduction of wealth inequality. However, there is a substantial body of evidence

that links economic efficiency with social welfare.4 Our second working assumption (or

hope) is that economic optimality will result in desirable social outcomes by most criteria

and standards. At any rate, assessing the social impact of market-oriented reforms is

beyond the scope of this paper.

          A second caveat to our analysis regards the political forces that underlie the

process of market-oriented reforms.             In this paper we enunciate the meaning and

measurement of reforms but do not examine the political context that makes them

possible and guarantees their continuity. This would require a political economy analysis

that weighs the importance of vested interest groups, identifies the "winners" and

"losers" of reform, and examines the political process for structural change (including the

compensation mechanisms to reduce reform opposition). Our reading of the evidence is

that there is no single, well-defined political and institutional framework for carrying out

market-oriented reforms. They are possible under dictatorships (e.g., Chile in the 1970s

and China currently) or democracies (e.g., India and Ireland in the 1990s). Reforms


3 An excellent collection of articles on the theory behind the link between private competition and
economic optimality can be found in Arrow and Debreu (2001).
4Some examples of a positive link between economic efficiency (and particularly economic growth) and
social welfare are Inter-American Development Bank (1996); Easterly (1999); Barro (2002); Dollar and
Kraay (2002); and Demery, Christiaensen, and Paternostro (2002). However, not all agree, as for example
Stiglitz (2002); and Stallings and Peres (2000).



                                                                                                     3

occur and are sustained whether their "losers" are compensated (e.g., Mexico's trade

reforms) or just silenced (e.g., Peru´s labor market reforms). Finally, reforms are adopted

gradually and by broad consensus (e.g., Costa Rica) or drastically and by hierarchical

imposition even in democratically elected regimes (e.g., Argentina and Peru in the

1990s). Given this ambiguity, it is quite difficult to rate or measure the political context

as an element of market-oriented reforms, and we abstain from doing so in this paper.

         The final caveat relates to the interconnection between various areas of market-

oriented reform.      There are synergies between them that must be recognized and

exploited, and there are optimal sequences in their implementation that must be

respected. This aspect of market-oriented reforms, however, falls beyond the scope of

the paper; thus, we treat each area of reform separately. We come back to this important

limitation of the paper in the concluding remarks.

Objective and Plan of the Paper

         The objective of this paper is to present ways of measuring the progress of

market-oriented reforms in various policy areas.5              These are the domestic financial

system; international financial markets; international trade; the labor market; the tax

system; public infrastructure and public firms; the legal and regulatory framework; and

governance. Thus, we cover both the traditional areas of first-generation reform (e.g.,

international trade) and the areas of institutional reform that have been emphasized lately

(e.g., governance).

         For each of these policy areas, first, we discuss the general principles underlying

market-oriented reform; second, we present various indicators of the policy stance in the

area in question; and third, we present various outcome indicators of the policy stance.

Policy indicators focus on the regulatory and legal actions taken by government, and

outcome indicators consider the immediate impact of those actions in the economy. For

example, in the area of international trade, a policy indicator is the level and dispersion of

tariff rates, and an outcome indicator is the volume of exports plus imports. It is

important to consider both types of indicators: a policy indicator reflects directly

government's purported intentions and actions but does not convey whether they have



5 Actual attempts to measure the progress of market-oriented reforms are Lora (1997) and Loayza and
Palacios (1997). Both deal with Latin America's reform experience of the 1990s.



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any practical effect. Conversely, an outcome indicator provides information on practical

effects but has the disadvantage of signaling not only policy changes but also a variety of

other causes. The two types of indicators complement each other and jointly offer a

comprehensive way of assessing the progress of market-oriented reforms.

        The plan of the paper is the following. In section II we deal with each of the 8

policy areas in turn. It is the longest and most substantial section of the paper. Section

III offers some concluding remarks. Finally, the appendix contains a comprehensive list

and brief description of data sources on reform indicators for each area outlined in the

text.

II. MEASURING MARKET-ORIENTED REFORMS

A. DOMESTIC FINANCIAL SYSTEM

        1. General Principles. Market-oriented reforms in the domestic financial system

consist of the liberalization of credit allocation accompanied by prudential norms and

monetary stability. This can lead to the development of sound financial institutions.

Well-functioning financial systems act positively on economic efficiency through

different channels. First, they facilitate the exchange of goods and services, acting as

intermediaries between buyers and sellers. Second, they facilitate the trading, hedging,

and pooling of risk. Third, they mobilize savings, and thus, allocate resources for

investment. Finally, financial systems monitor managers and exert corporate control by

allowing the market to price companies according to their expected performance (see

Levine 1997).

        The most common pattern of financial reform in developing countries has been,

first, radical liberalization, and second, implementation of prudential norms that

moderated the initial liberalization.    In many countries around the world, financial

repression was the norm in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. There was the belief that economic

development could not proceed without financial resources being directed to key

segments of the economy and that there was no guarantee that the private sector on its

own would provide those resources.         According to this logic, governments had to

intervene to direct financial resources to the areas most conducive to economic

development. This was done through a variety of instruments, some of them direct --such

as the creation of development banks for agriculture, fishing, and construction-- and



                                                                                         5

others indirect --such as credit quotas and subsidized rates imposed on private banks.

Unfortunately, government officials proved to be lousy bankers and credit was grossly

misallocated.

        The first reforms against financial repression consisted of radical liberalization.

That also proved to be a mistake that led to many a financial crisis. Market failures

brought about by moral hazard and adverse selection are endemic to financial systems.

The implementation of prudential regulations is necessary to control market failures such

as excessive risk taking and monopolistic credit allocation (e.g., "related" lending).                 In

this way, these regulations defend creditor rights, promote competition, and prevent

crises. It is not easy to determine when a regulation ceases to be prudential and becomes

excessive, but at least in principle financial regulations have the potential of moderating

extreme liberalizations to produce a competitive and efficient financial system.

        Financial liberalization and prudential regulation can only be successful in the

context of monetary stability.          Even the most efficient and well-regulated financial

system cannot withstand the negative consequences of macroeconomic imbalances. An

essential ingredient to ensure macroeconomic stability is a well focused and properly

working central bank.6

        2. Policy indicators. As noted above, there are three fields of policy in market-

oriented reform related to the domestic financial system.                   They are liberalization,

prudential regulation, and monetary stability.

        As its name indicates, financial liberalization attempts to remove the constraints

imposed on banking and capital markets during the period of financial repression.

Generally speaking, this means letting the private sector run credit institutions and

allowing the corresponding markets determine the quantity, variety, and prices of

financial products. In such an environment, a series of interrelated financial markets and

services develop, from traditional banks and insurance companies to stock and bond

markets. In practical terms, we can mention the following specific policy indicators of

financial liberalization: the removal of interest-rate controls, the reduction of taxes on


6 Naturally, macroeconomic balance cannot be achieved by monetary and exchange-rate policy alone.
Fiscal discipline is a crucial ingredient, and we address it in this paper from the complementary
perspectives of various market-oriented reforms. Fiscal balance is induced by an independent central bank,




                                                                                                        6

financial transactions, the elimination of mandated credit to "priority" sectors, the

privatization of state banks, the reduction of reserve requirements held at the Central

Bank, and the elimination of prohibitions on private institutions to offer a broad array of

financial services (see Bandiera et al. 2000; Roubini and Sala-i-Martin 2001).

        The policy indicators on the regulatory framework are subtler and require deeper

examination. In broad terms, the objective of prudential regulations is to protect creditor

and shareholder rights against excessive risk taking and uncompetitive practices on the

part of financial institutions. In most instances the implementation and monitoring of

these regulations entails the formation of a supervisory agency. It is debatable whether

this agency should be independent of government and/or given broad powers over banks

and other financial institutions. However, there is agreement that its main role is to

promote the transparency of dealings and accounts on the part of financial institutions

and corporations related to them. The transparency and accuracy of financial records

should allow private monitoring on banks and other financial institutions. However, it

can be argued that transparency is not enough and that it should be complemented with

specific rules imposed on financial institutions, such as prohibition of related lending,

sufficient capitalization of financial assets, and adequate matching of assets and liabilities

in terms of duration and currency denomination.                In this regard, a suitable policy

indicator can be developed from the portion of regulations that are adopted from well-

established international criteria, such as the Basle convention and related agreements.

Lastly, but not less importantly, prudential regulation should establish a clear and

predetermined procedure for the liquidation of assets of failed companies and banks. To

accomplish this, a modern and efficient bankruptcy law is essential. For principles and

data on financial regulation, see La Porta et al. (1998), and Caprio, Barth, and Levine

(2001), World Bank (2003).

        Turning to monetary stability, a right mixture of monetary, exchange-rate, and

fiscal policies is essential for this purpose. As mentioned above, fiscal policies are

addressed indirectly in various areas of reform discussed in the paper.                  Here, we

concentrate on monetary and exchange-rate policies. For them, the most important policy



by an efficient tax system, by eradication of deficit-producing public firms, and by improvements in
governance, among other reforms.



                                                                                                  7

indicator is the existence of an independent central bank with a clear mandate to promote

low and stable inflation. More precisely, although coordination between fiscal and

monetary authorities can occur at the level of objectives and forecasts, the central bank

should retain independence in the management of its policy instrument, whether an

interest rate or a monetary aggregate. Moreover, experience indicates that central banks

are able to promote monetary stability when their main target is keeping domestic price

inflation low, stable, and predictable (see Sterne 2002). When central banks have broad

mandates that include from long-run growth to exchange rate stability, they are usually

ineffective not only in obtaining these ambitious goals but also the basic one of inflation

stability. Thus, promoting monetary stability entails the use of a clear monetary policy

framework and the avoidance of policies that provoke misalignments in the real exchange

rate and other key relative prices. One monetary policy framework that has proven quite

successful in this regard is inflation targeting (see Loayza and Soto, 2002); it is not the

only one, however, and the appropriate monetary regime for each country remains an

empirical issue.

        3. Outcome indicators. Market-oriented reforms in the domestic financial system

should, in principle, lead to greater depth and activity of financial markets, more private

sector participation and competition in those markets, lower incidence of financial crises,

and stronger monetary stability. The outcome indicators we propose below correspond to

these broad categories.

        For analytical and completeness purposes it might be useful to distinguish

between various financial markets, such as bank, stock, bond, and insurance markets.

However, it is difficult to generalize across countries as to the expected performance of

various financial markets after liberalization.      Indeed, there is no clear common

international pattern for their relative development (i.e., with respect to each other), and

the literature does not find any solid evidence that one of them performs financial

services better than the rest (see Demirguc-Kunt and Levine 2001).               There is,

nonetheless, some evidence that these markets are complementary. Thus, we take an

eclectic perspective and consider jointly the development of banking and stock markets

(which can be extended to other financial markets, if necessary).




                                                                                           8

        On greater depth and activity of financial markets, consider the following

outcome indicators. In the case of banking, good measures of depth and activity are

given by the ratios of a broad monetary aggregate that includes saving and demand

deposits, such as M2 or quasi-liquid liabilities, to the size of the economy, represented

possibly by GDP. In the case of stock markets, the ratio of stock-market capitalization to

GDP is a good measure of depth, and the ratio of value traded to stock-market

capitalization, a good measure of activity.

        On larger participation of the private sector and stronger competition, we can

consider some variants of the indicators on depth and activity. For instance in the case of

banking, a good indicator of financial depth that focuses on the private sector is domestic

credit allocated by private commercial banks to the private sector, divided by GDP. In

addition, as indicators of stronger private competition, we can consider reductions in

concentration ratios within banking and stock markets (for instance the share of the

largest 4 banks in total banking assets), in the average spread between deposit and

lending rates (controlling, if possible, for financial transaction taxes), and in the average

profit margins in banking and stock-market trading. The database developed by Beck,

Levine, and Demirguc-Kunt (1999) provides comprehensive, cross-country and time-

series information on depth, competition, and private participation in financial markets.

        When considering the measures of depth and activity of financial markets, it is

important to focus on their general trend and abstract from temporary movements, such

as those produced by short-lived credit expansions. Indeed, it would be informative to

consider as a sign of improvement not only an increase in the trend but also a reduction

of the volatility around it.7

        Although it should be expected that a certain fraction of financial institutions fail

from time to time (as in any other line of business), systemic financial crises are an

indication that either the regulatory framework is not appropriate or monetary policy is

inadequate. Systemic financial crises can be detected in a number of different ways, such

as large fluctuations in domestic credit, bank runs in otherwise healthy institutions, and

massive accumulation of poor-performing loans. There is a large literature on systemic



7The long-run trend and cyclical volatility of a given series can be obtained by applying filters such as the
Hodrick-Prescott, Baxter-King, and other procedures that separate permanent from transitory changes.



                                                                                                           9

financial crises, and some of that includes precise measures of the occurrence and

magnitude of the crises; in particular, see Caprio and Kinglebiel, 2001. There is also an

important literature on "early warning" indicators, which focuses on identifying

macroeconomic and financial variables whose changes precede debt crises, including

those related to balance of payments, banking, and public debt. Leading examples of this

line of research are Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1998); and Goldstein, Kaminsky,

and Reinhart (2000).

        Finally, on stronger monetary stability, the most obvious indicator consists of low

and stable domestic price inflation. Nonetheless, a more complete analysis requires

considering foreign exchange rate and interest rate movements. Fluctuations in exchange

and interest rates are to be expected in dynamic and flexible capital markets; therefore, by

themselves, these fluctuations do not indicate lack of monetary stability. In order to

detect monetary instability even before it manifests itself in inflation shocks, it is

necessary to analyze the degree of misalignment in real exchange and interest rates with

respect to their equilibrium values. As the recent Argentinean crisis painfully illustrated,

low inflation and motionless exchange rate do not mean monetary stability but, far from

it, may hide large misalignments. Some seminal work on equilibrium and exchange rates

are Edwards (1988), Williamson (1993), Elbadawi and Soto (1997), and Hinkle and

Montiel (1999).

B. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS

        1. General Principles. Market-oriented reforms in international financial markets

basically consist of removing restrictions on cross-border flows of debt, equity, and

financial services. As in the case of domestic financial markets, market-oriented reforms

dictate that financial liberalization is accompanied by prudential regulations directed at

minimizing market failures.

        The globalization of financial markets is possibly the area of reform whose

benefits and costs are most hotly debated (see World Bank, 2001). Weary of its potential

dangers, Keynes advised, "above all, let your finance be national." It is argued that the

main disadvantage of financial globalization for developing countries is that they may

become vulnerable to external shocks that are difficult to manage and control. The

contagion of capital market volatility and crises is a major concern not only for its effects



                                                                                          10

on financial asset prices and flows but also for its negative consequences on real activity

and employment. Such is the case, for instance, when the flows of foreign investment

suddenly stop whenever international markets become disturbed.

         There are, nonetheless, important advantages associated to financial globalization.

They can be summarized as the positive effects of a substantial increase in the supply and

quality of financial products. These developments are brought about by both the direct

participation of foreign financial institutions and the upgrading of domestic institutions

due to stronger competition. For firms and individuals in need of financial resources,

financial globalization carries a decrease in their cost of capital, an improvement in

financial institutions' capacity to assess and monitor the profitability of their investment,

and a reduction of their perceived risk (given that portfolio expansion allows the

diversification of local risk).        For institutions and individuals seeking to allocate their

savings, financial internationalization opens up the array of available investment

opportunities, allowing them to minimize their portfolio risk and giving them the best

possible return.8

         Even if the arguments in favor of globalization remain unconvincing to some

people, the globalization of financial markets is a characteristic no modern society can

escape. The radical and continuous improvements in the technology of communications

and financial transactions are making capital-account restrictions increasingly futile.

Market-oriented reforms should be directed at accepting this reality and defining the role

of government regarding prudential regulation.

         Finally, the relationship between market-oriented reforms in the domestic

financial system, in international financial markets, and in macroeconomic policy is an

interesting and complex one. On the one hand, it is often argued that a precondition for

financial integration is the development of domestic financial markets.                           However,

domestic financial liberalization and prudential regulation rarely occur without the

incentives created by the integration with world financial markets. Therefore, a sensible


8Naturally, there are limits to the beneficial impact of financial globalization. To a large extent, however,
these limits are not due to excessive market participation but, rather, to incomplete markets that impede full
risk diversification. A case can be made that in some instances government participation is necessary to
induce markets to provide key diversification instruments. For example in order to deal with terms-of-trade
(TOT) risk, Caballero (2002) argues that governments of small economies should issue TOT contingent




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recommendation seems to be to advance in both fronts ­domestic and international-- in a

balanced manner. Macroeconomic stability does appear to be a necessary pre-condition

for both domestic and international financial reform. Financial deregulation unleashes

market forces that take advantage of the arbitrage opportunities created by

macroeconomic disequilibrium (for example, speculative attacks in the face of

overvalued exchange rates).        In principle, this can act as a disciplining device on

macroeconomic policy; however, often times, the correction does not occur orderly and

can lead to serious crises --such as those in East Asia in 1997 and Argentina in 2002.

        2. Policy Indicators. Market-oriented reform in international financial markets

generates two types of policy indicators. The first consists of measures of liberalization

in cross-border financial services, equity flows, and debt transactions.             The second

consists of measures of prudential regulation and control.

        International financial liberalization rarely occurs in one step. Rather, it is a

process whereby the constraints on various services and transactions are removed

gradually. However, for simplicity, we here present the indicators in the form of yes/no

questions. A crucial policy indicator that spans financial services, equity flows, and debt

transactions is whether domestic and foreign residents have free access to foreign

exchange at all times. For financial services, specifically, the key indicators are whether

foreign banks and other financial institutions can own financial assets in the country;

whether they can operate freely; and whether domestic firms, individuals, and institutions

(such as pension funds) can use foreign financial institutions wherever they may be

based.

        For equity flows, the main indicators consist of whether foreign residents can own

shares in listed or unlisted domestic companies (i.e., foreign portfolio and foreign direct

investment); whether domestic residents can open and maintain equity positions in

foreign firms; and whether both foreign and domestic residents have the ability to

repatriate their earnings and liquidate their equity investments.               Regarding debt

transactions, they have been traditionally available to governments only; market-oriented

reform dictates that private agents be able to tap debt markets as well. Policy indicators



bonds, which private financial companies could then use as benchmark for a fuller array of financial
instruments.



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of reform in this area consist of the removal of restrictions to obtain commercial credits

and consumer loans, to issue corporate bonds, and to provide and receive credit

guarantees in domestic and international markets, regardless of the country of residence.

The most comprehensive and authoritative cross-country database on policy indicators of

international financial reform is the Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and

Exchange Restrictions, prepared and published by the International Monetary Fund. Its

main drawback is that, in most instances, the indicators are binary (i.e., yes/no type) and,

thus, do not represent accurately the actual extent of liberalization.

       The measures of prudential control and regulation are more difficult to assess. A

general indicator is whether the country has adopted international standards for banking

and capital-market disclosure of information, asset capitalization, and reserve

requirements. Beyond that, it is unclear whether additional regulations actually correct

market failures (as reflected in "herd" behavior, program trading, and purely speculative

attacks) or, rather, create unnecessary obstacles to financial integration. An argument

could be made in favor of capital controls that discourage destabilizing short-term flows,

such as those implemented in Chile for most of the 1990s (see Gallego, Hernández, and

Schmidt-Hebbel 2002 for an authoritative evaluation of capital controls in Chile).

However, it seems that in order to reduce the potential negative effects of external

financial integration, it is more important to eliminate potential arbitrage opportunities

derived from macroeconomic disequilibria (particular, real exchange rate misalignment),

and eradicate implicit insurance and subsidies that induce speculative behavior (such as

unsustainably low domestic interest rates). Creative indicators could be derived from

policy changes in this regard.

       3. Outcome indicators. The main outcome indicators of reform in international

financial markets can be grouped in the following categories. The first one corresponds

to the effect on the domestic financial system. The second considers the quantities and

prices of cross-border services and flows. The third category comprises indicators of

external vulnerability.

       Market-oriented reform in international financial markets should have effects on

the domestic financial system that are akin to those of domestic financial reform. That is,

there should be an increase in the volume of private financial assets and a decrease in the



                                                                                         13

cost of capital (including the reduction of profit margins and interest-rate spreads) in the

domestic financial system. These indicators are discussed in the section above.

        The second group of outcome indicators refers directly to international financial

integration.   Some of the most important indicators are, first, an increase in the

participation of foreign banks and other financial institutions in the domestic market,

measured for instance by the ratio of foreign to total number of banks or the market share

of foreign-owned banks. Bankscope is the premier data source about banks around the

world. The second indicator is an expansion in the stock of domestic assets held by

foreigners, and likewise, an increase in foreign asset holding by domestic residents, with

the resulting rise of gross capital flows in the balance of payments. It is not clear,

however, what type of asset should increase the most as result of financial globalization,

whether gross foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, or debt. This should

be determined by their relative scarcities in the portfolio of assets. In recent reform

experiences, FDI has been the predominant form of foreign assets. The most important

source for data on capital flows is Balance of Payments Statistics published annually by

the International Monetary Fund. For foreign asset stock data, see Lane and Milesi-

Ferreti (1999) and Kraay et al. (2000).

        Finally, measures of external vulnerability can represent outcome indicators of the

government's failure to provide for adequate supervision, to ensure macroeconomic

equilibrium, or to eliminate implicit insurance or guarantees for speculative flows. Some

of them are, high black-market premium on foreign exchange, substantial real exchange

rate misalignment (which, particularly in the case of overvaluation, might indicate the

need for a drastic adjustment), large domestic-foreign interest rate spreads (which, after

accounting for risk premia, may indicate the presence of controls), and the classic

indicators of high levels of external debt (particularly of short duration) relative to GDP,

exports, or foreign reserves.     For a discussion of leading indicators on external

vulnerability, see Goldstein, Kaminsky, and Reinhart (2000), and IMF (2000).

C. INTERNATIONAL TRADE

        1. General Principles.     There is a large empirical literature suggesting that

economies that are more open to international trade have higher rates of growth, as a

result of higher investment and sustained gains in factor productivity (Frenkel and



                                                                                         14

Romer, 1999). Along with faster growth rates, trade openness brings about industrial

transformation, changes in the structure of employment, and a decline in poverty (Dollar

and Kraay, 2001).

        The literature points out five channels through which trade affects economic

growth. First, trade leads to higher specialization and, thus, gains in total factor

productivity (TFP) by allowing countries to exploit their areas of comparative advantage.

Second, it expands potential markets, which permits domestic firms to take advantage of

economies of scale. Third, trade diffuses both technological innovations and improved

managerial practices through stronger interaction with foreign firms and markets. Fourth,

freer trade lessens anti-competitive practices and rent-seeking activities by domestic

firms that are mostly unproductive. Finally, trade liberalization reduces the scope for

corrupt practices by government officers.

        The empirical evidence indicates that the relationship between economic growth

and openness is indeed positive and significant, working through both raising domestic

investment and enhancing efficiency gains (Dollar and Kraay, 2001b). This is the case

even after controlling for other determinants of growth, determinants that in turn may be

positively affected by trade openness. The relationship between productivity growth and

trade-liberalization reforms, on the other hand, is complex and dynamic. Some countries

benefit more than others from trade liberalization. In some countries the response to

liberalization comes quickly after the reforms, while in others adjustment is a slow

process and TFP gains takes time to materialize. This suggests, again, that trade reforms

must be evaluated in conjunction with other structural reforms.

        Trade reform aims, first, at introducing greater external competition into the

previously protected domestic markets and increasing economic efficiency at the level of

individual firms by using scale economies and comparative advantages. In this regard, it

is crucial to eliminate preferential treatment for specific sectors. A secondary goal of

trade reform is to expand the variety and quality of goods and services available to

consumers. These objectives are usually accomplished by lowering tariffs and effective

protection, eliminating non-tariff barriers, reducing administrative requirements for

imports and exports, and eliminating distortions in exchange rates and the financial

sector.



                                                                                       15

        This is certainly one of the areas in which reforms are likely to encounter

significant opposition from vested interests and pressure groups, as well as from

producers facing adjustment costs arising from the often-substantial changes in relative

prices. To be effective, trade liberalization should induce significant changes in relative

prices, which would signal producers to relocate resources towards more productive ends.

It would also bring about the end of state protection and privileges to sectors or

individuals. The experience of some developing economies suggests that a pre-

announced liberalization schedule and an unrelenting commitment towards liberalization

tend to ameliorate lobbying pressures and provide producers the confidence to undertake

the necessary relocation of resources.

        2. Policy indicators. Measuring how reforms affect trade openness is challenging

mostly because there is a wide array of policy instruments available to affect external

trade beyond tariffs. Consequently, trade reforms entail eliminating non-tariff barriers

(such as quotas, exemptions, special permits, and discriminatory practices), reducing the

dispersion of tariff rates, and reducing the average level of tariffs.

        The simplest case of reform occurs when protection is based only on taxes (or

subsidies) levied on imports and exports with no other restrictions. In such case, average

tariffs weighted by their respective shares in world imports or in production can be

directly used as a measurement of the change in openness. The higher the average level

and dispersion of tariffs and para-tariffs (for example, duties and customs fees), the more

distorted the trade outcome. Reform indicators would then be (1) the change in the tariff

level, and (2) the change in the dispersion in tariff rates. The interpretation of these

indicators should be cautious because some countries rely on non-uniform tariffs. In such

case, even with the same average tariff rate, the effect of protection on trade will differ,

depending on which goods are taxed at high rates and which at low9.

        Measuring trade reform is more complex when countries use additional non-tariff

barriers. These include foreign exchange rationing, import licensing requirements,


9An alternative indicator is the average collection rate, calculated as the ratio of import duties collected to
value of imports. The collection rate seems more appealing at first blush, since legal rates do not mean
much when there are widespread exemptions or smuggling, as noted by Nash and Andriamananjara (1997).
But collection rates may also be misleading when exemptions are concentrated in goods that do not
compete with domestic production, as is common in developing countries, or in imported inputs. In such




                                                                                                           16

reference prices, domestic content requirements, and export licensing requirements. In

such case, tariffs may become redundant, providing little additional protection to

domestic producers. A measure used to evaluate the level of non-tariff restrictions is the

weighted share of tariff-code lines covered by non-tariff barriers (licenses, quotas,

prohibitions) as a percentage of all tariff code lines, using as weights the respective

shares in world trade, imports or domestic production. This index is probably the most

useful as an indicator of how much the NTBs protect domestic industry. But even this is

not very reliable, since the actual effect of the NTBs varies a lot across products and

across countries, and this kind of index cannot show which are binding (and how much

these raise domestic prices) and which are not.

         A complimentary measure of trade limitations is the existence of multiple

exchange rates and administrative limitations such as mandatory surrender of exports

proceeds at the central bank, export and import licenses, etc.

         3. Outcome indicators. Trade policy reform is effective to the extent that it

encourages undistorted and larger volumes of trade. The first two outcome indicators

presented below are related to, respectively, changes and levels of trade intensity. Their

usefulness as indicators of reform is based on the proposition that trade liberalization

leads to larger flows of imports and exports, relative to GDP.

         Using the percentage change in the ratio of real imports plus real exports to real

GDP as an outcome indicator of trade reform rests on the assumption that average

changes in this ratio that occur in the medium-term are mostly caused by policy changes.

Under such assumption, this indicator can be used to compare improvements in trade

openness over time. A variation of this measure is the ratio of imports to aggregate

consumption. The latter is probably a more reliable indicator of restrictive trade policy

than the former since in most developing countries it is imports of consumption goods

that are the most stringently restricted. However, using total imports to calculate this ratio

implicitly assumes at a minimum that the proportion of consumer imports in total imports

is the same in time.




cases, high rates on competing imports and low rates on inputs can produce a low collection rate but high
effective protection. Consequently, we suggest using the level and dispersion of tariff rates.



                                                                                                      17

        The structure-adjusted trade intensity (SATI) consists of the ratio of real imports

plus real exports to real GDP, corrected for certain structural characteristics that

determine a country's trade, such as its size (both area and population) and transport

costs. This indicator proxies for the level of trade explained by trade policy, and therefore

allows for comparisons across countries with different structural characteristics. Frenkel

and Rose (1999) extend this simple statistic to derive a SATI from a gravity model, in

which trade measures can be systematically weighted against structural factors. One

obvious problem with this approach is that the results are only reliable to the extent that

the model used to form the counterfactual incorporates all the relevant determinants of

trade.

        A third generic variety of indicators consists of those calculated from a

comparison of domestic and border prices of similar products. Where these can be

calculated, they have the advantage of capturing the effects of non-tariff barriers, as well

as tariffs. They also are easier to interpret economically than some other quantity-based

measures. The major disadvantage of these measures is that they require data that may

not be readily available in developing countries. Domestic prices of individual goods

must be compared to the border prices of those same goods, adjusted for transport costs,

distribution markups, and (unless the goods are exactly the same) quality differences.

This kind of exercise is difficult and time-consuming, and has been carried out for few

developing countries on a regular basis. As a second-best indicator, it is advisable to use

the changes in both domestic and border prices, which represents a milder version of the

arbitrage of price differentials.

        A fourth indicator usually utilized is the black market premium on foreign

exchange, which is a proxy for the excess demand for foreign exchange. However,

demand for imports outside of official channels is only one source of excess demand for

foreign exchange. The other major source is the capital account (in particular, capital

flight), which can create a high premium when the capital account is not open, even in an

economy with a relatively open current account with few barriers.

        To the extent that trade policy changes incentives in an economy, the composition

of trade flows in terms of goods and trade partners should also change after reforms.

More open and less regulated economies should tend to diversify better their export and



                                                                                          18

import portfolios than heavily regulated, closed economies. This may come as the natural

result of risk hedging by private sectors exporters and importers operating without

government restrictions on international trade. Indicators of diversification are the change

in the share of the largest three (or five) trade partners in total exports or in total imports,

as well as the change in the participation of the three (or five) main exports or imports in

total trade.

        Finally, in several economies trade liberalization has been accompanied by trade

agreements. In some occasions, these agreements are the result of the genuine desire to

create additional trade opportunities and engage in more active competition. As such,

they can have a positive impact on the economy. Moreover, for economies with relatively

weak institutional conditions, a free trade agreement can help deter reform reversal.

However, in most cases trade agreements tend only to divert trade from the international

community towards the partner in the agreement. For this purpose governments increase

protection of local firms against third-party producers, thus misallocating resources,

reducing overall efficiency, and usually leading to stagnation in productivity and

innovation.

D. THE LABOR MARKET

        1. General Principles.      Market-oriented reforms in the labor market mainly

consist of removing distortions, many of them induced by government regulations that

make labor too costly and risky relative to its abundance in the economy. These reforms

may also involve government participation to reduce monopolistic power in manager-

labor relations, such as those potentially exercised by industry-level worker unions or

large owners' associations. Therefore, as in other sectors, market-oriented reforms in the

labor market usually entail deregulation but in some instances require specific

government intervention.

        Ideally, undistorted and competitive labor markets enjoy the flexibility that allows

the economy to adjust efficiently to changes in aggregate demand coming from external

and internal sources. In times of negative shocks, a flexible labor market minimizes the

rise of unemployment, thus promoting a timely output recovery. In times of booming

economic activity, labor market flexibility guarantees that output expansion is

accompanied by full employment and rising real wages.



                                                                                            19

        Undistorted and competitive labor markets are important not only for the short-

term adjustment to shocks, but also to obtain "broad-based" long-run growth, the kind of

growth that brings about a rise in income not only to the owners of physical capital, but

also to the majority of workers. When firms perceive that labor is too costly or risky,

they choose investment strategies that are excessively capital intensive. This produces

labor-market segmentation (i.e., formal and informal labor) that is particularly acute in

labor abundant countries and that is not conducive to broad-based growth.

        To summarize then, the main objectives of market-oriented reform in labor

markets are to make labor markets more flexible, more competitive, and less segmented.

        2. Policy Indicators.     The policy indicators of labor-market reform can be

grouped in four broad categories: Constraints on hiring and firing of workers; wages,

compensation, and payroll taxes; mechanisms for negotiation and peaceful resolution of

labor disputes; and public employment.

        Constraints on hiring and firing have several aspects; we now discuss a few

indicators on some of the most important of them. The first policy indicator is whether

labor legislation considers dismissals caused by economic difficulties of the firm as

justified; if not, legislation would be ignoring that in an active economy some firms and

sectors shrink and that this process requires the dismissal of some workers. The second

indicator is whether at least a portion of severance payments are periodically deposited in

accounts in the name of the workers so that these funds and their associated market yields

are available to workers when they are fired or resign from the firm. The existence of

these funds signals that labor legislation considers severance payments as deferred

compensation rather than as penalties designed to prevent firms from shedding labor.

The third policy indicator considers directly the portion of monetary compensation for

dismissal that represents an actual cost to the firm; this compensation is usually mandated

as a multiple of the last monthly wage and varies with the level of workers' seniority.

High compensation for dismissal is especially distortionary for the labor market and

costly to the firm if economic difficulties are treated as unjustified causes for dismissal.

In this case, firms find themselves trapped in a situation where downsizing is the only

way for them to manage their economic difficulties but is too expensive to undertake.

The fourth policy indicator is whether legislation imposes restrictions on temporary



                                                                                        20

contracts; this type of contract is needed to fulfill particular needs of the firm and when,

as result of an active economy, new and rather uncertain ventures frequently appear. In

economies in which rigid constraints on the hiring and firing of permanent workers exist,

temporary contracts may provide a way, albeit imperfect, to make labor markets more

flexible. However, to avoid market segmentation within the firm, it is important that

when temporary contracts become less restricted, permanent contracts be also liberalized.

       The second category of policy indicators on labor-market reform deals with

wages, compensation, and payroll taxes. The general principle of reform in this area is to

allow overall compensation to reflect both workers' productivity and their relative

scarcity in the economy. Some of the most important policy areas to consider are the

following. The first indicator is whether mandated minimum wages are binding in the

sense that they are keeping some workers (mainly the less skilled and the young) out

from the active labor force.        The second indicator is related to social-security

contributions and payroll taxes, such as those for disability, death, sickness, maternity,

work injury, unemployment, and family allowances. The policy reform in this case

consists of, first, strengthening and making explicit the link between social-security

contributions and each worker's received benefits and overall compensation; and, second,

lowering the contributions so as not to make labor unduly expensive. A rather crude

policy indicator in this area is the rate of total social security contributions (usually as a

percentage of the wage). A more complete indicator would consider whether social

contributions make labor costs excessive (relative to market-clearing levels) and whether

contributions and benefits are closely connected at the individual level.

       The connection between social security contributions and each worker's received

benefits merits further discussion. If the link is strong, then social security contributions

are not distortionary but represent a form of remuneration to the worker. As such, they

can be taken into account when firms and workers negotiate on the remuneration

package. On the other hand, if the link is weak, social security contributions become a

tax on both firms and workers without corresponding benefits. A traditional example of a

weak relationship between contributions and benefits is the retirement pension system of

the pay-as-you-go type; in this case, what is contributed during working years bears little

relation with what is received at retirement.



                                                                                           21

        The third category of policy indicators on labor market reform concerns the

mechanisms for negotiation and peaceful resolution of labor disputes. Market-oriented

reforms in this area focus on confining government involvement in manager-labor

relations to the expeditious resolution of labor disputes, for instance through specialized

judicial courts and arbitrators. This implies taking government out of the negotiation

process and placing it in the role of contract enforcement. Then, some specific policy

indicators in this regard would consider whether legislation allows for decentralized and

flexible collective bargaining; whether workers are allowed to choose their own unions

(which would generate more efficient worker representation through improved

competition and contestability); whether labor legislation does not induce labor stoppage

by making one party (usually the firm) bear most of its costs; whether labor legislation

allows labor strikes only when they are clearly connected to specific contractual claims

between workers and their corresponding firms; and whether there are courts and

arbitrators specialized on labor disputes.

        The last category of policy indicators on labor reform is related to the prevalence

of public employment. In many developing countries, public employment has

traditionally been used both as a way to solve unemployment problems during economic

downturns and as a political tool to reward allegiance to the governing party. Therefore,

the process of hiring public employees has often neglected to adequately match workers

to the needs of public administration. This overstaffing and excessively high

remuneration in the public administration (relative to productivity) has bid up labor costs

in the private sector and created little incentive for training and human capital

development in the public sector. A policy indicator of reform in this area is the

initiation of a public sector downsizing program, one that provides adequate

compensation and training to departing staff and prevents the state from losing its

comparatively most productive personnel.

        On these policy indicators, the main data source consists of various publications

by the International Labor Organization, such as the Labor Statistics Database and the

ILO Conventions and Recommendations. The drawback of ILO sources is that the

relevant information is dispersed and not always comparable across countries. These

problems are remedied to a large extent in the database of labor market indicators



                                                                                        22

collected by Rama and Artecona (2000). It includes 44 indicators on policies and

outcomes related to labor markets in 121 countries since the 1950s. A more recent

attempt of providing cross-country information on labor market policies is given by

Djankov et al. (2003). These data set is quite comprehensive in terms of country and

thematic coverage; however, it lacks time-series variation as its observations correspond

to the early 2000s only.

        3. Outcome Indicators. We consider general and specific outcome indicators of

labor market reform. General indicators assess outcomes from the perspective of the

overall functioning of labor markets, while specific indicators measure closely the

immediate impact of particular policy changes.

        Among general indicators, we should look for measures of improved adjustment

flexibility of labor markets to aggregate and industry-specific shocks and for indications

of reduced labor market segmentation. Two broad outcome indicators are the rates of

unemployment and underemployment. These data are readily available from national or

labor statistics; they are difficult to compare across countries but, with enough care, are

useful for overtime comparisons. More precise measures of flexibility, although more

difficult to obtain, are given by sectoral-, gender-, and age-specific data on labor force

participation, worker turnover rates, average time between jobs, and labor force dropout

rates (for an application to several Latin American countries, see Micco and Pagés 2002).

Regarding labor market segmentation, a "quantity" approach would measure the share of

the labor force in the informal sector, defined as the segment of the economy that does

not comply with labor-market regulations (see Loayza 1996). A "price" approach would

compare wages and total compensation between similarly qualified workers across

different firms (in terms of size and age, for example) in comparable industries and

sectors.

        Specific indicators measure the immediate outcomes of policy changes. In fact,

we can group these outcome indicators using the same taxonomy as the one used for

policy indicators. On hiring and firing of workers, the best indicators are turnover rates,

unemployment duration, and unemployment rates --cited above as general indicators.

Various worker ratios --such as the ratio of temporary to permanent workers and the

proportion of workers according to seniority-- are also useful but require an estimation of



                                                                                        23

their "equilibrium" values in order to make relevant value judgments. On the connection

between social security contributions and individual benefits, the literature has focused

on pension reform and used as outcome indicators the extent to which pension regimes

are based on individual capitalization systems. The highest score is given to pension

regimes that feature a fully funded capitalization system with individual accounts

managed by private companies; and the lowest score is given to pension regimes that are

mostly based on a pay-as-you-go system (see Samwick 2000 for a cross-country

application). Ideally, similar indicators could be constructed for other social security

benefits (such as health insurance, family allowances, etc.)

        Regarding the mechanisms for negotiation and peaceful resolution of labor

disputes, a key outcome indicator is the incidence of worker strikes.          This can be

measured, for instance, by the number of hours not worked due to strikes, per year and

worker in the modern sector. The extent of unionization has also been used as an

indicator of the lack of efficiency of manager-worker relations and even the degree of

government involvement in the negotiation process (which would be the case if

legislation favors the formation and membership of unions). However, without context-

specific analysis, it is difficult to ascertain whether unionization responds to excessive

government regulations, ineffective labor-dispute courts, or the most prevalent forms of

industrial organization in the country.

        Finally, on the pervasiveness of public employment in the economy, common

indicators are the ratio of public to total employees in the non-agricultural sector and the

share of government expenditures devoted to the public sector payroll, among other

measures. The first indicator denotes the labor resources in the economy occupied by the

public sector, while the second measures public employment in relation to the size of

government (a large share is likely to represent overstaffing in the public sector).

        As noted before, the database compiled by Rama and Artecona (2000) contains

useful cross-country information on a number of labor outcome indicators, such as

unemployment rates, wages, conditions of work, trade unions and collective bargaining,

and public employment.




                                                                                         24

E. THE TAX SYSTEM

        1. General Principles.      Market-oriented reform in the tax system seeks to

minimize the distortionary effect of taxation on private activity while generating

sufficient revenue to finance government operations. The tax system is distortionary

when it penalizes specific activities or assets without a clear public-externality

justification; when it creates uncertainty as to the profitability of various economic

activities; when it discourages high levels of effort, work, and investment; and when it

creates incentives to undertake wasteful actions devoted to tax evasion and avoidance.

By omission, taxation is also distortionary when it does not generate enough public

revenues and, thus, leads to a growing public debt that crowds out investment and creates

macroeconomic instability.

        In most unreformed tax systems, tax laws are onerous and tax-collection agencies

weak. The formal sector endures the crippling burden of taxation, the informal sector is

limited by its poor access to legal and financial services, and the whole economy suffers

from the consequences of insufficient public revenues, that is, public debt, macro

instability, and deficient public goods and services (see Loayza 1996). This situation has

an effect on the structure of taxation: Given that the state's ability to generate revenues

from domestic income and indirect taxes is undermined, the state resorts to obtaining

revenues through both inflationary seignorage and import and export taxes (which can be

more easily monitored).      It should then be clear why tax reform is an important

complement to reforms in the areas of international trade (e.g., lower tariff rates) and

macroeconomic stabilization (e.g., inflation reduction).

        In unreformed systems, taxation is characterized by tax rates that are high in

average, heterogeneous across sectors, and unpredictable over time (see Shome 1992).

Therefore, to summarize, the objectives of market-oriented reform in the tax system are

to reduce and make more stable the tax burden on the formal sector; encourage informal

firms to become formal; eliminate unjustified discriminatory treatments; and create the

conditions for international trade liberalization and macro stabilization. The goal of

market-oriented tax reform is not necessarily increasing public revenues but making

taxation more efficient, particularly in the dynamic sense of economic growth promotion.




                                                                                        25

        2. Policy Indicators. In order to implement the principles of market-oriented

reforms in the tax system, some policy changes must be undertaken. They broadly fall

into three components, from which various policy indicators can be derived (see Shome

1992). The first component deals with the structure of tax rates. Market oriented-reform

usually implies a reduction of marginal rates in all categories of taxes, that is, income

(both personal and corporate), property, and indirect (sales, excise, and value-added)

taxes. Naturally, it is conceivable that marginal rates could be too low and that reforming

the system would require increasing the rates. However, this situation would be rare as

the status of unreformed economies is one of excessive government participation and tax

burden. An important related question is how low tax rates should be. In theory, the

optimal tax rate is where the marginal productivity of tax-financed public goods just

compensates for the marginal tax burden on the economy's net rate of return (see Barro

and Sala-i-Martin 1992). Therefore, the calculation of optimal tax rates should be

country-specific and depend on the productivity of public goods and the rates of return of

alternative private investment opportunities. It should also consider the likelihood of tax

evasion and informality, consideration which tends to decrease the optimal tax rate.

        Market-oriented reform also includes a reduction in the dispersion of tax rates and

the explicit elimination of preferential or discriminatory treatment across sectors or

goods. It is always possible to defend, on market-failure grounds, a discriminatory tax

regime. However, as a rule, the burden of the proof for market-failure should be on the

government's side, which in practice produces the implementation of a very limited

number of discriminatory or preferential rates.

        The second component of policy changes in tax reform deals with the type of

taxation, namely, taxable sectors and activities. Market-oriented reforms in the tax

system involve de-emphasizing steeply progressive rate structures of income and

property taxes and reducing the tax burden on export and import sectors.            This is

compensated by a stronger emphasis on broadly based, low-rate taxes on domestic

production, such as the value added tax (VAT). Apart from the economic efficiency

reasons given above, this shift in the type of taxation is advocated on the grounds of

collection efficiency, which is a major constraint in most developing countries.




                                                                                         26

        Finally, the third component of tax reform consists of strengthening the tax

administration. This involves the creation of a tax-collection agency with the clear

mandate of enforcing tax laws, with enough resources to implement its supervisory role

(which includes a well-remunerated bureaucracy), with stiff penalties for corruption and

capture of tax officials, and with sufficient coordination with the judicial system in

enforcing the law.

        3. Outcome Indicators.

        There is a wealth of outcome indicators on tax reform. With enough diligence,

we can obtain precise indicators related to each policy reform. Here we consider only

three of them that are readily available and that broadly capture the main purposes of tax

reform. The first is the ratio of tax revenues to GDP, which measures the success in

raising revenues through non-inflationary means. The second is the ratio of international

trade taxes to total tax revenues, which represents the reliance on a common type of

distortionary taxation. The third is the VAT revenue productivity rate, which measures

the comprehensiveness of the VAT and the strength of the tax administration.

        The ratio of tax revenue to GDP signals government's reliance on taxes to finance

its expenditures as opposed to debt accumulation, money creation, or transfers from

public enterprises. Paradoxically, while a policy indicator of tax reform is the reduction

of tax rates, it is generally the case that as result of tax reform the ratio of tax revenues to

GDP increases. The change in the structure of taxation, the reduction in rates, and the

strengthening of the tax administration can lead to sharp reductions in informality and tax

evasion. Although the first impact of tax reform on the revenue ratio is positive, we

cannot say that it is desirable that the ratio keeps increasing. There is in principle an

optimal tax ratio to which tax reform should lead. The ideal indicator is, therefore, the

difference between actual and optimal tax ratios, as defined above.

        The ratio of international trade taxes to total tax revenue reveals the reliance on a

common type of distortionary taxation.            As argued above, one characteristic of

unreformed countries is that they heavily tax the most easily monitored sectors, of which

international trade is a prime example. Not surprisingly, the share of export and import

taxes in total revenues is large in most developing countries; however, as they reform and

develop, international trade taxes represent a decreasing share of tax revenues. This



                                                                                             27

development is even more remarkable when we consider that the volume of exports and

imports increases considerably as result of international trade reforms.

       Lastly, the productivity rate of the value-added tax measures not only the

effectiveness of the VAT --the centerpiece of tax reform in many countries-- but also the

comprehensiveness and enforcement of the whole tax system (see Silvani and Brondolo

1994 for concepts and data on VAT productivity for several developing and industrial

countries). In a context of fragile tax administration, the VAT with its self-monitoring

feature, has become the best option for revenue generation with limited distortions. Its

achievements as a revenue generator have allowed the easing of the tax burden on the

formal corporate sector and the reduction of trade tax rates. The VAT productivity rate,

defined as the ratio of the share of VAT revenues in GDP to the average VAT rate,

contains information on two aspects of the VAT system. The first is the coverage of the

VAT, that is, the extent to which national expenditures are taxable. The elimination of

preferential treatments to certain areas (e.g., agricultural products) and the inclusion of all

types of goods and services at different points in the production ladder imply an increase

in the VAT base, which ceteris paribus leads to an increase in the ratio of VAT revenues

to GDP. The second aspect reflected by the VAT productivity rate is the strength and

efficacy of the tax administration in preventing tax evasion. Holding constant the VAT

base, an improvement in tax enforcement should expand the ratio of VAT revenues to

GDP, in relation to the VAT rate. A related indicator that more directly focuses on tax

enforcement is the rate of VAT compliance (or the inverse of evasion). This can be

constructed as a variation of the VAT productivity rate; specifically, the rate of VAT

compliance is the ratio of the share of VAT revenues in the VAT base relative to the

VAT rate (where a value of 1 indicates perfect compliance).

F. PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE AND PUBLIC FIRMS

       1. General Principles. Government participation in productive activities should

be separated in two categories: provision of infrastructure and production of goods and

services. While in the former the government provides goods that are complimentary to

private sector activities, in the latter state-owned enterprises (SOE) replace or compete

directly with private firms. Economic theory and empirical evidence suggest that, in the

absence of market failures, there is virtually no justification for the government to engage



                                                                                           28

in the production of goods and services. Even when market distortions are present,

regulations can provide incentives for private firms to operate in a socially optimal

manner. Reforms of infrastructure sectors have, thus, three main objectives. First,

divesting SOEs in areas where private sector activities are efficient. Second, increasing

efficiency in the production of those goods and services that are delivered by the

government. Third, reducing -better, eliminate- the budgetary burden faced by

governments.

State-owned enterprises

        In competitive markets, governments have justified the creation of SOEs on the

basis of lack of private sector interest or on infant-industry considerations. In fact, lack of

interest was usually the result of government interventions and distortions in other

markets, such as the financial sector (World Bank, 1995). Infant-industry policies, on the

other hand, had been generally unsuccessful and quite costly (Noland and Pack, 2002).

Hence, governments should not get involved in the provision of goods and services that

can be better provided by the private sector under adequate regulation. Reforms include

deregulation, privatization, and divestiture as their main tools.

        In the presence of market failures, governments justified the creation of SOEs on

the basis that public sector managers can more easily control externalities, exploit scale

economies, or operate firms at socially optimal levels. This led to the proliferation of

SOEs as natural monopolies. Evidence concludes, however, that public firms are

typically inefficient because they operate as monopolies, managers are subject to poor

incentive mechanisms, and governments often intervene in their operation to fulfill

political goals (World Bank, 1995). As a result, SOEs absorb large amounts of funds that

could be best spent on social services and often capture a disproportionate share of credit,

squeezing out private sector borrowing. Moreover, since monitoring and control is

typically softer within the government, SOEs tend to create more externalities and social

costs (e.g., state-owned factories often pollute more than privately owned plants).

Privatization and divestiture have also been proposed for SOEs in imperfect markets.

Technological breakthroughs challenged the existence of natural monopolies in

telecommunications, energy, and transport, thus giving private entrepreneurs the right to

compete with incumbents. Whenever governments prefer to keep certain firms in state



                                                                                            29

hands, reforms should deal with their inefficiencies, so as to free resources for other,

socially more relevant, uses.

Infrastructure

        A vast empirical literature suggests that differences in infrastructure may be

responsible for substantial differences in economic growth and welfare (e.g., Calderón et

al., 2002). Developing countries, on average, show a very poor record in building and

maintaining infrastructure. Demand for public infrastructure services is greatly distorted

by cross-subsidies and artificially low prices that bear little relation to costs (World Bank,

1994). The distortions in prices and output, the heavy influence of government on what

ought to be exclusively commercial decisions, and the decay of networks, have all

worked to create an environment ripe for mismanagement and corruption.

        The successful experience of some countries ­such as the UK or Chile­ with

deregulation and franchising of telecommunications, roads, and energy indicates that

reforms should aim at creating competition where possible. In those sectors where

competition is deemed impractical (e.g., natural monopolies with substantial

informational asymmetries), reforms should set up strong, independent, economic

regulation. If successful, these reforms will create an environment conducive to private

sector participation, providing incentives to strive for efficiency savings that can

ultimately be passed on to consumers and for the expansion in the provision of services.

Nevertheless, reforms in this area run the risk of failing either by incompetence in design

or implementation or, most typically, when regulated firms are able to "capture" the

authorities to set the regulation to their advantage. The risk of state capture increases

with the weakness of the institutional framework (see section H) and the lack of political

will to regulate markets when necessary.

        2. Policy indicators.

State-owned enterprises

        The main reform instrument for SOEs has been privatization, for which indicators

beyond the obvious are difficult to find. The standard indicator is the total proceeds of

privatization, usually expressed in absolute terms (millions of US$). Clearly, this

indicator requires a scale measure to be meaningful. In principle, one would like to scale

proceeds using public sector wealth, which is unavailable. As a second best we suggest



                                                                                           30

expressing proceeds either as a share of GDP or value added generated by public firms. It

is customary to use aggregate figures for macroeconomic analysis, but this masks the

important effects of privatization at the sectoral level. For this reason, the analysis ought

to be extended to include indicators at the sectoral levels in order to gain precision with

regard to the impact of privatization in the working of different areas of the economy. In

particular, efficiency measures at the firm and industry levels --such as productivity gains

and service quality-- must be included in the analysis to avoid misleading evaluations. In

some economies, the authorities may have tried to maximize the proceeds from

privatization (for fiscal purposes), even at the cost of creating less competitive markets.

In these cases, the benefits generated by higher levels of efficiency will not be transferred

to consumers in the form of reduced relative prices.

        For firms remaining in state hands, reforms focus on two elements. First, enacting

measures to eliminate transfers from the central government to cover operating deficits,

hardening budgetary procedures, and increasing accountability. Reforms in several

countries forbid by law the financing of SOEs deficits. Second, introducing incentives to

improve on management and efficiency and expand coverage, when necessary. This

includes restructuring (outsourcing, streamlining procedures, performance incentives for

managers, eliminating redundant labor, and re-capitalizing firms), increased competition

(allowing entry of private firms and deregulating prices), and enacting a wide array of

corporate governance regulations. Broadman and Recanatini (2000) provide an indicator

for the latter based on (i) the introduction of a company law that provides for effective

boards of directors and share ownership disclosure requirements; (ii) the establishment of

strong penalties for insider trading and pyramid schemes; (iii) the appointment of

'outsiders' (non-managers) to boards of directors and the introduction of staggered

elections of directors; (iv) the establishment of an effective legal framework for the

exercise of creditors' rights; and (v) the introduction of published independent audits of

financial accounts and credit rating agencies.

Infrastructure

        Reforms comprise three categories that apply equally to private and public firms.

First, applying commercial principles to the management of infrastructure firms or

facilities. A key component in this case is pricing reform, which we discuss below.



                                                                                          31

Second, introducing competition into a sector or removing barriers to entry so that

contestability is a real option. Whenever sectors conform natural monopolies, reforms

should implement regulation of quality, pricing, and access under the tutelage of an

independent regulatory agency. Third, involving users and stakeholders in the project

design and operation of infrastructure facilities.

        The depth of pricing reforms can be assessed using as policy indicator the

operating losses incurred by firms (as percent of sales or the capital stock), excluding

transfers from the government. Consistent with the reduction in price distortions, a

number of countries have eliminated implicit cross-subsidies among different sectors.

Instead, they rely on setting prices in line with costs and subsidizing those in need with

strictly targeted policies (e.g., access to potable water and sanitation). The degree of

cross-subsidization can also be used as an indicator of reforms.

        Wherever competition is feasible in infrastructure sectors, divestiture (either in

the form of privatization or franchising) can be measured by the share of public firms in

value added, providing a simple yet indicative measure of the reforms. For sectors that

conform natural monopolies, reforms can be assessed be divestiture measures but must

include also the implementation of regulatory frameworks that effectively separate the

government from the operation of the business and set explicit, verifiable targets for

investment, efficiency gains, service coverage, and quality.

        3. Outcome indicators

State-owned enterprises

        A widely used indicator of the degree of privatization is the share of public firms

in value added and employment. Aggregate figures, again, mask the effects of

privatization at the industry level, which suggests the need to include sectoral indicators,

in particular in energy or telecommunications. A second indicator is the change in

transfers from the central government or state banks to firms. Successful reforms should

induce sharp reductions in financial and operating losses and, thus, in government

transfers (Megginson and Netter, 2001). An indirect indicator of privatization is the

change in foreign direct investment (FDI), because in several countries, privatization has

been coupled with FDI liberalization. We suggest using FDI in privatized firms as a

measure of reform outcomes, either in absolute value terms or as a percentage of value



                                                                                         32

added. Foreign portfolio investment can also be used (reflecting capitalization), but the

association is arguably looser.

        Indicators of improved management for non-divested SOEs focus on profitability

and efficiency. Measuring profitability is relatively straightforward, as the difference

between earnings and total operating costs. Interpretation should be cautious because, for

several reasons (distributive justice, political constraints), SOEs may be required only to

recover costs and not to generate profits. The customary indicators of efficiency are

average labor productivity, defined as value added divided by employment. An indirect

measure of increased efficiency is the observed reduction in relative prices for goods and

services (e.g., lower tariffs) or quality improvements (e.g., shorter waiting lists).

Infrastructure

        Measuring the outcome of the reforms in infrastructure use the same set of

indicators for public firms. As documented in World Bank (1994), these indicators

capture the dramatic changes in efficiency and profitability as a result of reforms in

telecommunications, transport, water provision, and electricity in several developing

economies. Indicators of the impact of reforms in the availability of infrastructure

typically consider measures such as kilometers of roads, kilometers of railway lines,

number of telephones, electricity generating capacity, access to potable water and

sewerage, irrigation and waste disposal (see Canning, 1998). These indicators can be

supplemented with some measures of infrastructure quality to provide a richer assessment

of the reforms (e.g., percentage of roads in poor condition, percentage of local phone

calls that are unsuccessful, percentage of availability of diesel locomotives, and

percentage of electricity lost from the system).

G. LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK

        1. General Principles. The legal and regulatory framework comprises the laws,

regulations, and legal institutions needed to facilitate dynamic economic development

and environmental protection in a decentralized economy. In the absence of market

failures, unregulated private initiative leads to the creation and exploitation of profitable

opportunities through market activities. The legal framework should provide the basic

institutions for a minimum-cost operation of the market, including the protection of

property rights, the provision of expedite conflict resolution mechanisms, and the



                                                                                          33

capacities to enforce contracts. Market power, asymmetric information, and externalities,

nevertheless, do exist and can hamper the performance of the private sector unless an

efficient and adequate regulatory framework is in place. Regulations should counter

market imperfections so that private firms lead to investment, innovation, and sustained

growth.

        Regulation is a public good that is usually not well provided by the private sector.

As such, it is the responsibility of the governments to enact regulatory frameworks for the

different regulated industries and enforce their applications. A general prescription in this

regard is the separation of regulatory agencies from enforcement units to add

transparency and credibility to the regulatory process. As discussed in section H,

nevertheless, setting up these agencies and providing incentives to the staff to operate

efficiently and honestly usually requires good governance practices that themselves call

for additional reforms in the State.

        Traditionally, economic literature identified numerous market failures and

suggested, as a general prescription, that tight regulation was required to avoid socially

inefficient outcomes (Stigler, 1971). Often, governments reserved entire areas of the

economy to be developed exclusively by public firms (e.g., natural monopolies and

strategic industries). This "public interest" approach to regulation, however, requires key

elements that are actually absent in most developing economies. First, it assumes that the

cost of enforcing regulations is small and does not affect the efficiency of the economy.

Second, it assumes that public firms operate in a socially efficient manner. Third, it

assumes that managers of regulated firms and regulators cannot use regulation in their

own benefit.

        In most countries, however, excessive and often arbitrary regulation suffocated

private initiatives, leading to low investment and insufficient innovation. Public firms did

not compete on fair grounds with the private sector since they benefited from ample

government transfers to cover losses (World Bank, 1995). Consequently, first generation

reforms aimed at deregulating markets, reducing the cost of doing business for private

firms, reducing the regulatory uncertainty and arbitrariness, and avoiding discriminatory

practices among firms or sectors that lead to inefficiency and rent-seeking behavior. In

countries where reforms were successfully implemented there was a strengthening in the



                                                                                          34

protection of property rights ­legally or de facto­ with the withdrawal of the public

sector, and in the capacity to enforce contracts.

        First generation reforms allowed substantial private sector participation and

investment. The outcomes in terms of increased efficiency, innovation, and enhanced

consumer welfare have been somewhat mixed. Second-generation reforms stem from the

growing awareness that first generation reforms were necessary but not sufficient to

enhance growth and that many governments failed in providing adequate guidelines to

guarantee proper functioning of a market economy.

        Criticisms focus on both the legal and regulatory frameworks. Legal systems are

deemed too slow and their sentencing too unpredictable to become the powerful signal

needed by private firms to operate efficiently. Likewise, they do not necessarily provide

expedite and affordable conflict resolution mechanisms for private sector disputes

(Basańes and Willig, 2002). One explanation for the observed reluctance to modify legal

frameworks is that reforms are very expensive, something wealthy nations often do not

realize because the relative cost of the institutions that secure the rule of law is small

(Posner, 2002). Another is that a revamped legal system may also enforce bad laws that

reduce economic efficiency. A third explanation is that there are informal substitutes for

the legal enforcement and protection of property and contract rights, including arbitration

(with or without the legal enforcement of the arbitrator's judgment), reputation, and

strong-arm tactics, such as those used in illegal markets.

        Regulatory frameworks, on the other hand, have been criticized on the grounds

that they induce a high cost of doing business and, in particular, that firm entry and exit

are poorly designed, leading to non-competitive environments. Studies in the "public

choice" literature provide evidence that regulated firms can affect the regulatory process

to avoid entry and exact rents, capturing regulators to their advantage (La Porta et al.,

2002). Moreover, politicians can implement entry regulations in order to extract rents

from firms, and ultimately consumers (de Soto, 1990). Exit costs (e.g., bankruptcy

procedures) can be equally important in increasing market power and reducing efficiency.

Since economic activity is a risky project, inevitably some initiatives will not prosper. In

such cases, society needs to move resources from failed businesses to more profitable

activities. The legal framework should be designed to make bankruptcy procedures



                                                                                         35

simple and inexpensive, so that resource relocation is accomplished swiftly while, at the

same time, protecting the rights of creditors and workers. There are, at least, two

compelling reasons to focus on exit costs as an important component of economic

reforms. First, failed businesses use resources (such as labor and capital) that earn a low

return from a social point of view, thus reducing general productivity. Second, bankrupt

firms that do not exit the market (e.g., when losses are passed on to consumers or

absorbed by the government) have little incentives to improve productivity. At the same

time, they block the entry of new and more efficient producers to the market thus

reducing lower productivity gains in the long run (Bergeoing et al., 2002).

        The analysis of reforms to legal and regulatory frameworks is only meaningful

when considered in connection with other reforms. Foreign trade liberalization and

governance reforms enhance the capacity of the government to provide the adequate

environment for economic development. Labor regulations have important effects on

entry and exit and the adoption of technology. Trade liberalization provides discipline to

imperfect markets even when specific regulations to curtail market power have not been

implemented.

        2. Policy Indicators. Unambiguous, objective measures of the quality of legal

and regulatory frameworks are very hard to find. Direct reporting by experts and firms on

the main constraints to enterprise development can be a valuable tool for assessing the

business climate in an economy, notwithstanding the element of subjectivity and margins

of errors.

        Deregulation of potentially competitive markets was the most important of the

early reforms. Policies included the elimination of production quotas and price controls,

the liberalization of wages and labor market restrictions, and opening markets to the

private sector. Standard indicators of deregulation are the number of prices directly

controlled by the government, the share of production that is to be sold under quota

restrictions (as % of GDP), and the number of goods that require licensing from the

government to be marketed.

        Second-generation reforms focus mainly on market entry and exit, and the

conditions in which private firms compete. Djankov et al. (2002a) suggest using three

indicators of entry conditions: the number of procedures that firms must go through, the



                                                                                         36

official time required to complete the process, and its official cost. Substantial empirical

evidence suggests that more procedures and longer delays reflect bribe extraction and/or

capture (make entry less attractive to potential competitors). Predictions regarding the

cost indicator are ambiguous. A benevolent social planner may finance screening of

market entrants from direct fees, thus rendering the latter as an imperfect measure of

costs. On the other hand, higher fees are frequently used to deter entry. Indicators of the

reforms in exit conditions would include, at least, the legal reform of bankruptcy

procedures, a measure of efficiency of the bankruptcy agencies and officers, and its

average cost (e.g., annual number of sentences as shares of filings, time required and

official costs to sentence). The World Bank is assembling an index of the efficiency of

the bankruptcy process, based on the procedures for filing, the petition hearing, the

court's decision, the appointment of an insolvency practitioner, the assessment of claims

and their ordering by priority, and the sale of assets.

         Assessing the impact of reforms on the efficiency of the judiciary system for civil

procedures is quite difficult. Djankov et al. (2002b) develop indicators based on the

analysis by law firms of two specific legal procedures (the eviction of non-paying tenants

and the collection of a bounced check). A measure of the reforms would be the change in

the average time and the monetary cost involved in accomplishing each goal. In similar

fashion, three indicators of contract enforcement are the number of independent

procedural steps counted from the moment the lawsuit is filed in court until the contract

is fulfilled; the associated time of the procedures; and their cost as a percentage of GNP.

         3. Outcome indicators. Evaluating the impact of changes in legal and regulatory

frameworks is difficult because of the microeconomic, specific nature of most reforms

and also because changes occur slowly due to the presence of substantial adjustment

costs. Hence, it is necessary to focus on intermediate measures of the impact of reforms.

If new regulations are better, it should be first noticed in price-quality improvements,

either as unit-cost reductions (and lower relative prices) for same-quality goods or,

alternatively, quality improvements with constant unit costs. A second measure often

used is the reduction in excess capacity of firms operating in a particular market, a result

of improved management capabilities or better market access. A third suggested measure




                                                                                         37

is the reduction in queuing time for consumers in better-regulated markets (e.g., months

of wait to obtain a telephone line or water connection).

        Beyond price-quality improvements, production-related measures provide an

indirect, yet readily available, assessment of the outcomes of reforms. First, changes in

average labor productivity at the firm level (defined as value of production per hour

worked), although interpretation should be careful as productivity also responds to

changes in relative prices. Second, changes in TFP defined as the Solow residual (value

added less the cost of capital services and manpower). Third, change in use of factors

(capital, intermediate resources and manpower), in particular investment. See Galal et al.

(1994).

        To the extent that entry and exit reforms have impact on market structure,

indicators of the impact of reforms can be derived from changes in the structure of the

different sectors. Successful entry/exit reforms should lead to declining plant age (new

firms should displace old, inefficient firms), technological upgrading (measured by

purchases of licenses and investment in technology), relocation of production within

industries (from less efficient to higher productivity firms), product and market

diversification, and declines in unit costs for goods in deregulated markets (Bergeoing et

al. 2003).

H. GOVERNANCE

        1. General Principles. A growing body of literature points to the importance of

governance in originating and implementing welfare-enhancing economic policies

(Kaufman et al., 1999). The state can potentially provide the private sector with an

environment in which property rights are respected; legal contracts are enforced; and

government regulations counter market imperfections. While adequate policies are

essential, successful reform implementation requires a government with the ability to

execute them efficiently and credibly. Without governance, it is difficult to set up or

maintain a policy environment that is conducive to economic growth.



        Good governance is based on five principles that provide the direction of reforms

and suggest the choice of its indicators. First, good governance depends on credibility:

governments that build strong ethics reputation are able to reduce pervasive problems



                                                                                       38

such as conflicts of interest, corruption, lobbying, and regulatory capture. Second, good

governance relies on adopting clear and simple rules and implementing effective

enforcement mechanisms. Reducing the risk that governments will change the rules of

the market or will apply regulations to benefit incumbents is critical to investment and,

hence, to growth and welfare. In countries with weak legal traditions, simple rules place

fewer demands on courts, are cheaper and more likely to be accurate, and reduce the risk

of corruption.

        These high responsibilities for government can be achieved only when the public

administration behaves both honestly and efficiently (see discussion below).

Consequently, a third key principle of good governance is transparency. It reduces the

scope for regulatory failures (such as capture and bias), increases accountability, and

reduces market uncertainty. Fourth, good governance requires strong mechanisms of

checks and balances by consumers, competition authorities, courts, and parliaments.

Transparency and accountability provide incentives to reduce corruption. Corruption in

government, especially of officials with decision making power, is detrimental to social

welfare because it makes the state pursue public policies and programs that benefit

certain groups rather than society in general and because it encourages wasteful

rent-seeking activities. Corruption is mostly due to lack of both proper monitoring and

clear accountability rules; and it is compounded by lack of procedural clarity, complexity

of bureaucratic requirements, and imposition of overly restrictive regulations.

        Finally, the quality of the civil service is the fifth crucial principle for governance.

To a large extent, good governance depends on having an efficient, motivated, and

effective civil service. The efficiency of public goods provided by the government

depends largely on the size and quality of the public workforce and on the institutional

rules which guide its behavior. As discussed by Schiavo-Campo et al. (1997) some

reforms may not require administrative capacity (e.g., removing price controls), but most

others do depend critically upon having qualified personnel (e.g., enterprise

restructuring). Fiscal policy is another reason to focus on the quality of the civil service.

Expenditure management and tax administration are quite inefficient without a competent

civil service.




                                                                                             39

                2. Policy Indicators. Governance reforms are very difficult to measure for

several reasons. First, governance is largely an intangible asset. Second, it consists of a

potentially large number of components that are difficult to measure individually (e.g.,

transparency, honesty, accountability). Third, these components affect the quality of

governance in complicated manners, both directly and indirectly, individually and

collectively. Most reforms discussed in other sections of this paper consider measures

that improve governance. For example, trade liberalization eliminates incentives to

corruption derived from cumbersome protection schemes and privatization reduces the

scope for rent-seeking and lobbying. Similarly, privatization can greatly reduce the scope

for rent seeking and lobbying when regulation is correctly designed and effectively

enforced.

        One reform that relates directly to the workings of the government is the

"rightsizing" of public employees. Civil service reform can improve transparency,

accountability and honesty, enhancing the credibility of policies. It usually includes two

types of measures. First, eliminating over-staffing, arising from inefficient management,

political interference (e.g., appointment of personnel to pay political favors), and lobby

from unions. An obvious, yet gross, indicator of the reforms is the reduction in the share

of public employment in total employment. The measure can be refined to exclude

employment in SOE and concentrate in the central or general government. Second,

implementing and enforcing meritocractic recruitment systems. Qualitative indicators of

reforms include the enactment of formal mechanisms to allow entry into government

service conditional upon pre-specified requisites (passage of a civil service exam or

attainment of formal education degrees), the setup of proper procedures of internal

promotion (requesting that higher-level agency positions be filled by current agency

employees, members of the civil service, or sufficiently accredited professionals), and

implementation and maintenance of competitive salaries, tightly related to effort.

Elimination of ethnic-based quotas is also an important component of successful reforms,

although they usually require substantial political negotiations.

        Considerable effort and expenditure have been utilized to reform bureaucratic

dysfunctions such as red tape, organizations that only communicate in vertical lines, are

distant from those they serve, are split into too many hierarchical levels, are



                                                                                        40

unsympathetic to their clientele, and lack flexibility (Turner, 1999). The implementation

of private sector management techniques appears to be an important tool to align

incentives within the government. Reforms along these lines include implementing

performance indicators, benchmarking, and total quality management.

         Decentralization is another reform that could potentially improve credibility and

governance. Decentralization can lead to greater variety in the provision of public goods,

tailored to suit local populations (Tiebout, 1956). Besley and Coate (2000) assert that

another benefit from decentralization is the improved accountability of bureaucrats. A

measure of the degree of decentralization proposed by Fisman and Gatti (2000) is the

sub-national share of total government spending. A higher share would suggest a more

decentralized public sector and, presumably, better governance. Nevertheless, there is no

consensus that decentralization is unequivocally good for a country. There are political

economy considerations, mostly related to the distribution of fiscal revenues and

liabilities, that raise doubts on whether decentralization can lead to more efficient,

market-oriented outcomes for government action.

         Finally, Beck et al. (2001) provide a measure of reforms in "checks and

balances", using as indicator the number of decision makers whose agreement is

necessary before policies can be changed. Numerous decision makers with different

policy preferences are likely to respond differently to reform opportunities than single

decision makers. On the other hand, multiple decision makers may offer greater

protection from arbitrary government action to individuals and minorities.

         3. Outcome Indicators. When analyzing the success of public policies, it is quite

difficult to isolate the contribution of good governance. There is, however, the possibility

of assessing changes in the quality of public institutions and services by the way they are

perceived by businessmen and economic and political consultants, who deal with various

government branches on a daily basis. These subjective indicators are collected by a

handful of international agencies, namely Business International (BI), the International

Country Risk Guide (ICRG), and Business Environmental Risk Intelligence (BERI).

Indicators include, among others, indices for corruption, bureaucracy and red tape, rule of

law, the likelihood of changes in government, political instability, expropriation risk, and

repudiation of contracts by government. Indicators are usually used to generate composite



                                                                                          41

indices representing the different impacts of governance: for example, Mauro (1995) use

these measures to create an index of governance instability while Knack and Keefer

(1995) select some indicators as being of greatest relevance to the security of private

property and the enforceability of contracts.

        Expanding on surveys designed and implemented by Brunetti, Kisunko and

Weder (1997), the World Business Environment Survey (WBES) of the World Bank

surveys firms in more than 75 countries, inquiring about corruption, the quality of

government-provided services, and the predictability of laws and policies. Kaufmann et

al. (1999) provide a methodology for constructing indices of perceptions on corruption,

by aggregating governance indicators from numerous sources including surveys of

enterprises and households.

        These subjective governance indicators have attained wide usage in the growth

and development literature. Its application when discussing the impact of reforms,

however, should be very careful. First, ratings may be affected by the expert's knowledge

of recent economic performance. Second, these measures typically represent conditions

facing foreign or large investors, not necessarily those confronting most domestic

investors. Subjective risk evaluations remain only partial indicators of the institutional

environment that can affect economic performance.

        An alternative to subjective ratings was proposed by Clague et al. (1999). They

suggest using the proportion of M2 within the banking system, an objective measure not

subject to contamination by the expectations of surveyed country experts. The

justification for this measure is that individuals will hold a larger proportion of their

financial assets in the form of currency in environments where third-party enforcement of

contracts is unreliable. Money lent to financial institutions (i.e. bank deposits) is less safe

where contracts cannot be relied upon. The ratio will increase where governments better

enforce and respect contracts and private property rights. The main limitation of the CIM

is that, at best, it only measures the tradeoff between holding assets in currency or bank

deposits. Moreover, other elements affect this decision rendering its comparability across

countries dubious (e.g., inflation).




                                                                                            42

III. CONCLUSIONS

        In the last two decades most developing economies have engaged in market-

oriented reforms. The defining guidelines underlying these reforms are private

participation, competition among private agents, and a change in the role of the

government with respect to economic activity.       In general, reforms imply reducing

government participation and market interference. In such cases, the instruments of

reforms are typically price liberalization, market deregulation and privatization. In some

cases, markets require government intervention precisely to encourage competition. This

occurs when markets fail due to asymmetries of information, moral hazard, or natural

monopoly. Market-oriented government participation takes the form of enacting

regulatory frameworks and providing mechanisms to enforce regulations and contracts.

This paper presents ways of measuring the progress of market-oriented reforms in various

policy areas from the perspective of both policy and outcome indicators. The policy

areas we cover include not only those of traditional, first generation reform but also the

areas related to institutional and legal reform.

        As a final point, we should discuss an important caveat to our analysis, already

mentioned in the introduction.        Market-oriented economic reform should best be

understood as a multi-faceted process. Although for analytical reasons we have treated

various areas separately, economic reforms in each of them are interconnected. First,

they follow the same underlying principle of competitive private participation. Second,

the implementation of a reform in one area often requires corresponding changes in

another.    For instance, a reduction and homogenization of tariff rates requires

restructuring the domestic tax system. Third, the success of economic reform in one area

often depends on complementary reforms in other areas. For instance, in order for trade

openness to lead to export growth and a more efficient domestic industry, labor markets

must be flexible; otherwise, as some people claim, trade openness could just "kill"

domestic firms.

        Although it is clear that economic reforms require and complement each other, it

is less clear what the sequencing should be (from a normative perspective) or can be

(from a positive, practical perspective). For example, on the one hand it would be ideal

to have a properly working domestic financial system prior to opening to international



                                                                                        43

capital flows; on the other hand, however, without the incentives created by international

financial liberalization, domestic financial markets may not be improved. In the case of

economic reform, we know that the whole is more than the sum of its parts; however, we

are less certain as to whether the process should be balanced across reforms or whether

some of them must take the lead. Measurement issues dealing with the complementarity

and sequencing of market-oriented reforms remain an important but relatively unexplored

area of research.




                                                                                       44

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