58213 Note No. 28, November 2010 Flowing Forward Freshwater ecosystem adaptation to climate change in water resources management and biodiversity conservation Tom Le Quesne John H. Matthews Constantin Von der Heyden A.J. Wickel Rob Wilby Joerg Hartmann Guy Pegram Elizabeth Kistin Geoffrey Blate Glauco Kimura de Freitas Eliot Levine Carla Guthrie Catherine McSweeney Nikolai Sindorf Water Working Notes are published by the Water Sector Board of the Sustainable Development Network of the World Bank Group. Working Notes are lightly edited documents intended to elicit discussion on topical issues in the water sector. Comments should be e-mailed to the authors. Flowing Forward Freshwater ecosystem adaptation to climate change in water resources management and biodiversity conservation Tom Le Quesne John H. Matthews Constantin Von der Heyden A.J. Wickel Rob Wilby Joerg Hartmann Guy Pegram Elizabeth Kistin Geoffrey Blate Glauco Kimura de Freitas Eliot Levine Carla Guthrie Catherine McSweeney Nikolai Sindorf Note No. 28, November 2010 acknowledgments This report has been funded by the World Bank and World Elizabeth Kistin (Duke University) and Geoffrey Blate, with Wildlife Fund (WWF). The World Bank's support came additional support from Peter McCornick (Duke University). from the Environment Department; the Energy, Transport, Glauco Kimura de Freitas led the Tocantins-Araguaia case, and Water Department; and the Water Partnership with support from Samuel Roiphe Barreto and Carlos Program. WWF's support came through the HSBC Climate Alberto Scaramuzza. Carla Guthrie (University of Texas) Partnership. This knowledge product supports two World provided significant insights into vulnerability assessment, Bank sector analyses: (1) the Climate Change and Water and Catherine McSweeney (GTZ) clarified multilateral Flagship analysis that has been developed by the Energy, institutional arrangements. Eliot Levine provided significant Transport, and Water Department Water Anchor (ETWWA), support for managing authors, versions, and reviewers. and (2) the Biodiversity, Climate Change, and Adaptation Nikolai Sindorf was instrumental in assisting with economic and sector analysis prepared by the Environment hydrological perspectives and basin images. Department (ENV). It is also a contribution to the 2010 International Year of Biodiversity. Early reviewers included Robin Abell, WWF-US; Dominique Bachelet, Oregon State University; Cassandra Brooke, WWF- Rafik Hirji, the World Bank task team leader, provided Australia; Ase Johannessen, International Water Association; the overall intellectual and operational guidance to its Robert Lempert, RAND Corporation; James Lester, preparation. The task team is grateful to Vahid Alavian Houston Advanced Research Center; Peter McCornick, and Michael Jacobsen, the former TTL and current TTL of Duke University; Guillermo Mendoza, US Army Corps of the Climate Change and Water sector analysis; and Kathy Engineers; Jamie Pittock, Australian National University; Mackinnon, the TTL for the Biodiversity, Climate Change, LeRoy Poff, Colorado State University; Prakash Rao, and Adaptation sector analysis; as well as Abel Mejia, Julia Symbiosis International University; Nikolai Sindorf, WWF- Bucknall, and Michele de Nevers, managers of ETWWA and US; Hannah Stoddart, Stakeholder Forum for a Sustainable ENV, for supporting the preparation of this report. WWF is Future; and Michele Thieme, WWF-US. grateful for HSBC's support of its global freshwater program through the Partnership. The HSBC Climate Partnership is Final peer reviewers included Greg Thomas, president, a five-year global partnership among HSBC, The Climate Natural Heritage Institute; Brian Richter, coleader of Group, Earthwatch Institute, The Smithsonian Tropical the Freshwater Program, the Nature Conservancy; and Research Institute, and WWF to reduce the impacts of Mark Smith, head of the Water Program, International climate change for people, forests, water, and cities. Union for the Conservation of Nature. World Bank peer reviewers during this stage included Glenn-Marie Lange, Unless otherwise stated, all collaborators are affiliated with senior environmental economist, ENV; and Nagaraja Rao WWF. The report originally grew out of ideas in a white Harshadeep, senior environmental specialist, AFTEN. paper prepared by John Matthews and Tom Le Quesne Gunars Platais, senior environmental economist, LCSEN, (2009) but reflecting the extensive discussions of many provided verbal comments. Written comments were also others, including Bart (A.J.) Wickel, Guy Pegram (Pegasys received from Charles Di Leva, chief counsel, and Nina Consulting), and Joerg Hartmann. This report was drafted Eejima, senior counsel, LEGEN. The authors are particularly through a complex process under the coleadership grateful for an in-depth review from Dr. Richard Davis and of Tom Le Quesne and John H. Matthews. Rob Wilby for the administrative support provided by Doreen Kirabo, (Loughborough University) led efforts for early background program analyst. content on climate science and adaptation principles. The Breede and Okavango case studies were substantially led The approving manager at the World Bank for this work is by Constantin Von der Heyden (Pegasys Consulting) and Julia Bucknall. Guy Pegram. The Siphandone­Stung Treng case was led by i Flowing Forward copyright and authorship disclaimers This report has been prepared by WWF at the request This volume is a product of the staff of the International of the World Bank on behalf of and for the exclusive use Bank for Reconstruction and Development/the World Bank. of its client, the World Bank. The report is subject to and The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed issued in connection with the provisions of the agreement in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the between WWF and the World Bank. Use of the report executive directors of the World Bank or the governments will be determined by the World Bank in accordance they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the with its wishes and priorities. WWF accepts no liability accuracy of the data included in this work. 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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, email pubrights@worldbank.org. ii Table of ConTenTs Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i Copyright and Authorship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1 . The Role of Freshwater Ecosystem Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11 1.1 Freshwater Ecosystem Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.2 Challenges and Barriers to Sustainable Freshwater Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 2 . Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 2.1 A Changing Freshwater Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.2 Ecosystem Impacts of Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.3 Sensitivity: Risk and Hot Spots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.4 Tipping Points Versus Gradual Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.5 Understanding Future Impacts: Caveat Emptor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.6 Climate Change and Other Human Pressures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.7 Implications for Biodiversity Conservation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 3 . Assessing Vulnerability: Methodology and Summary Case Studies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 3.1 Vulnerability and Climate Risk Assessment Methodologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 3.2 Case Study Summaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3.3 The Okavango Basin in Southern Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3.4 The Breede Basin of South Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.5 TheTocantins-Araguaia River Basin in the Greater Amazon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 3.6 The Siphandone­Stung Treng Region of the Mekong Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 4 . Responding to Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 4.1 A Framework for Climate Adaptation -- A Risk-Based Approach to Water Management . . . 45 4.2 Management Objectives for Freshwater Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 4.3 Options for Integration into World Bank Activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55 Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .58 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59 iii executive summary climate change and Systems may be at risk for only a short period of the year or Freshwater ecosystems during drought years. Freshwater ecosystems provide a range of services The impacts of climate change on freshwater that underpin many development objectives, often ecosystems will be complex and hard to predict . for the most vulnerable communities in society . These These impacts will lead to changes in the quantity, include provisioning services such as inland fisheries, and quality, and timing of water . Changes will be driven regulating services such as waste assimilation; sediment by shifts in the volume, seasonality, and intensity of transport; flow regulation; and maintenance of estuarine, precipitation; shifts from snow to rainfall; alteration of delta, and near-shore marine ecosystems. Repeated global surface runoff and groundwater recharge patterns; surveys such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and shifts in the timing of snowpack melting; changes in Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 have identified freshwater evapotranspiration; increased air and water temperatures; ecosystems as having suffered greater degradation and and rising sea levels and more frequent and intense tropical modification than any other global ecosystem, resulting storm surges. Together, these will lead to a number of key in significant negative impacts on freshwater ecosystem eco-hydrological impacts on freshwater ecosystems: services. A new UNEP report titled Dead Planet, Living Planet: Biodiversity and Ecosystem Restoration for · Increased low-flow episodes and water stress in Sustainable Development (UNEP, 2010) underscores the some areas huge economic benefits that countries might accrue through restoration of wetlands, river and lake basins, and · Shifts in the timing of floods and freshwater pulses forested catchments. · Increased evaporative losses, especially from shallow Under current climate projections, most freshwater water bodies ecosystems will face ecologically significant climate change impacts by the middle of this century . Most · Higher and/or more frequent floods freshwater ecosystems have already begun to feel these effects. These impacts will be largely detrimental from · Shifts in the seasonality and frequency of thermal the perspectives of existing freshwater species and of stratification of lakes the human livelihoods and communities that depend upon them for fisheries, water supply and sanitation, and · Saltwater encroachment in coastal, deltaic, and low- agriculture. There will be few if any "untouched" ecosystems lying ecosystems, including coastal aquifers by 2020, and many water bodies are likely to be profoundly transformed in key ecological characteristics by mid-century. · Generally more intense runoff events leading to increased sediment and pollution loads Not all freshwater ecosystems will be affected in the same way by climate change . The pace and type · Increased extremes of water temperatures of climate change will vary by region and even across segments of a single basin. The uneven nature of climate Changes to the freshwater flow regime will be the change impacts means that we must also understand the most significant and pervasive of the impacts of differential climate vulnerability, sensitivity, and hydrological climate change on freshwater ecosystems . Ecologists importance of different aspects of a basin in order to are increasingly focusing on freshwater flow regimes as the prioritize management responses. In effect, climate change determinant of freshwater ecosystem structure. Changes will lead to a tapestry of differential risks across freshwater to the volume and regime of freshwater flows are already a systems. Particular elements of the ecological system leading driver of global declines in freshwater biodiversity, will be at risk at particular points in time and space, and and the impacts of climate change are likely to accelerate to particular kinds of changes or stressors. For example, this pressure. Changes to water timing as much as changes headwater streams are more likely to be vulnerable to low- to total annual runoff are likely to have the most significant flow impacts than are larger main stems of river systems. impact freshwater ecosystems. As precipitation and 1 Flowing Forward evapotranspiration regimes continue to alter, they will change on freshwater ecosystems decades into the alter many aspects of water quality and quantity. future . Even on an annual scale, there is considerable divergence in the predicted precipitation patterns from Freshwater systems that already experience or are different global climate models. This uncertainty will be vulnerable to water stress are likely to be the most even greater on the shorter time scales that are likely to be sensitive to climate change . This sensitivity may be most important for ecosystems. When these uncertainties a function of total annual water stress across the basin in precipitation are fed into complex hydrological and but more often will result from seasonal and/or localized biological models, predictions of climate change impacts vulnerability to water stress. on ecosystems become even more uncertain. The pace of climate change will be uneven and sudden rather than gradual and smooth . In most the role of risk and vulnerability assessment regions currently, climate change impacts are manifested through shifts in the severity and frequency of extreme There are opportunities to undertake assessments events such as intense precipitation events and more of vulnerability to climate change in a range powerful tropical cyclones, droughts, and floods. The of planning activities and operations . Strategic accumulation of impacts will eventually transform environmental assessment of climate change vulnerability many ecosystems in fundamental ways, such as altering should be undertaken through national water sector permanent streams and rivers to regularly intermittent policy formulation, water resources planning and water bodies of water. These shifts in ecosystem state will be sector program development. very stressful for both freshwater species and for humans dependent on these ecosystems and their resources. In Attempts to assess and respond to climate change many cases, state-level transformations will occur in a should adopt a risk-based approach rather than focus matter of a few years or less. on impact assessment . The considerable uncertainty about ecosystem impacts of climate change means that Impacts on ecosystems will be manifest both attention should be focused on using scenario analysis through dramatic state shifts as "tipping points" are to identify those ecosystems that are most sensitive to reached and through gradual deterioration . Certain and at risk from change rather than relying only on the ecological systems respond to changes in pressure, such development of deterministic predictions of impacts. as from climate change, in dramatic ways that constitute wholesale shifts in their basic structure. For example, The case studies undertaken for this report when nutrient levels exceed a certain threshold, some demonstrated that it is possible to produce useful water bodies change from vegetation-dominated to results on reasonably tight resources and within a algal-dominated systems where algal blooms and anoxic short time frame . Achieving this successfully depended events occur. Other systems will undergo slow, steady upon creating a team with the appropriate range of skills degeneration in the face of climate change. For example, and drawing on the results of existing analyses. While the increased water temperatures and reduced flow levels investment of further resources in the case studies would may lead to a decrease in the quantity and diversity of have enabled greater specification of a number of aspects invertebrate species in a system, exacerbating declines in of risk, it probably would not have created significantly fish populations. greater certainty about future outcomes given the inherent uncertainties associated with the estimation of future In the majority of cases, damage to freshwater climate impacts on freshwater. ecosystems will occur as a result of the synergistic impacts of climate change with other anthropogenic pressures . In most cases, climate will not be the a Framework and management predominant driver of freshwater biodiversity loss over the objectives For Freshwater ecosystem next half century. It is imperative, therefore, that climate adaptation impacts be understood as part of the broader set of pressures impacting freshwater systems. Adaptation requires that an iterative, risk-based approach to water management be adopted . There is a high degree of uncertainty in using global Adaptation responses should be based on risk assessment climate models to predict the impacts of climate and adaptive management. This can represent a significant 2 Executive Summary shift away from more deterministic methods that focus necessary, restore) flows now, and to continue to provide on quantifying specific impacts using model-based water environmental flow regimes under changing patterns of resource management approaches. In the context of runoff. Water for the environment needs to be assigned a uncertainty, robust adaptation can be achieved through high priority in government (water or environment) policy three adaptation responses: shaping strategies that if environmental flows are to be protected in the face of implement measures for identified risks, hedging strategies changing flow regimes. that enable responses to potential but uncertain future risks, and signposts that develop targeted monitoring 3 . Reducing existing pressures on freshwater capacity to identify emerging change. ecosystems will reduce their vulnerability to climate change . Measures to protect ecosystems so that they have Future climate change implies the need to give sufficient absorptive capacity to withstand climate stressors increased weight to maintenance of ecosystem include reducing extractive water demands from surface functions in the trade-offs inherent in development and groundwater; restoring more natural river flows so that decision making . The maintenance of freshwater freshwater ecosystems are not vulnerable to small, climate- ecosystems has always implied the need to account for induced changes in runoff; and reducing other pressures trade-offs, particularly in development decision making. such as pollution and overfishing. The assimilative capacity However, uncertainty about future climate trajectories of freshwater ecosystems will be further strengthened creates the need to ensure that ecosystems have both when a diversity of healthy habitats can be maintained the resilience and flexibility to respond to change. This within a river system. implies the need to accommodate significant additional assimilative capacity in ecosystems. recommendations For In many cases, current methods for planning and integration into operations managing freshwater resources are likely to result in water infrastructure that makes it harder for Successful adaptation ultimately depends upon freshwater ecosystems to respond to climate change . the resources, policies, and laws of national, Climate-sustainable water management is likely to be more transboundary, and local political and management conservative, span multiple climate futures, and explicitly authorities . There are significant opportunities for build in decision-making processes that allow operations supporting client governments in achieving these and future construction to be flexible across a range of objectives through the Bank's portfolio of programs, climate parameters. policies, and technical support, within and beyond the water sector . Opportunities within the water sector There are three key management objectives that include program and policy lending at the basin and underpin any response to climate change impacts on national levels to improve water-planning processes and freshwater ecosystems . There are opportunities for the provide broader institutional support. Bank to provide support to each of these objectives: Opportunities also exist outside the water sector, 1 . Sufficient institutional capacity and appropriate particularly by supporting transboundary, national, enabling frameworks are essential preconditions for and sub-national environmental programs . The successful climate adaptation. Required institutional potential activities could form important component capacity can be characterized in terms of enabling elements of any future cross-sectoral adaptation support. frameworks and institutions, such as a functioning and Where possible, support to freshwater ecosystem adaptive water allocation mechanism, effective and adaptation should be integrated with broader support functioning water management institutions, opportunities activities in the water sector. for stakeholder involvement, and sufficient monitoring, evaluation and enforcement capacity. In most cases, improving the ability of freshwater ecosystems to adapt to climate change will not 2 . Maintenance of environmental flows is likely to require substantively new measures . Instead it be the highest-priority adaptation response for requires renewed attention to the established principles freshwater ecosystems, in particular in regulated or of sustainable water management. Many of the necessary heavily abstracted river systems . This requires policies interventions will simultaneously promote environmental and implementation mechanisms to protect (and, if and developmental objectives, for example, and also will 3 Flowing Forward support increased institutional capacity and strategic temperature and chemical pollution, permit releases planning of water resources. under a range of different conditions, provision of fish passages, and sediment outlets or bypass facilities. project level · Operating rules: In order to protect environmental flows under conditions of future variability, dam The maintenance and restoration of environmental operating rules can include mechanisms to retain flows should be strengthened as core issues in flexibility, with specific provisions for the protection the Bank's water infrastructure lending . The recent of environmental flow needs as water availability publication Environmental Flows in Water Resources changes. The Bank could support the inclusion of these Policies, Plans, and Projects (Hirji and Davis, 2009a) flexible operating rules as a deliberate attempt to test provides recommendations for supporting improved and demonstrate options for managing infrastructure. protection of environmental flows across projects, plans, and policies. This document identifies four entry points Projects and programs to re-operate infrastructure for Bank engagement, including measures at both project can provide win-win adaptation opportunities and policy levels. Concerns over climate change and the while improving economic and environmental impacts on environmental flows reinforce the importance performance . This can include alterations to infrastructure of a strong consideration of environmental flow needs in design, facilities, and operating rules at the time of re- infrastructure development projects. Environmental flow operation to ensure that any infrastructure provides needs should therefore be integrated into the planning, maximum support to the adaptive capacity of ecosystems, design, and operations of all future infrastructure projects and incorporate mechanisms to allow for flexible that have the potential to affect flows. operations in the future in response to shifting hydrology. In some cases, the redesign of hydropower facility operating The design, siting, and operation of water rules can improve generating capacity and improve infrastructure will be central to determining the provisions for environmental flows. extent to which freshwater ecosystems are or are not able to adapt to future climate shifts . There are The use of strategic environmental assessment can particular opportunities to account for the potential be an important tool in ensuring that project-level impacts of climate at three places in infrastructure planning: investments support ecosystem resilience and adaptive capacity . The ability of freshwater ecosystems to · mpact assessment: Impact assessment provides the I adapt to climate change is improved where infrastructure core mechanism by which a full consideration of projects are designed and operated at a basin and/ the impacts of infrastructure on future adaptability or system scale. This can provide opportunities for the and resilience can be considered. This can include protection of particularly vulnerable parts of river systems assessments of the impacts of climate change on or those that contribute in particular to the functioning environmental flows, an assessment of potential future and resilience of the overall system. Where the operation of shifts in ecosystem and species distribution, and the infrastructure across a system is coordinated in an adaptive potential impacts of new infrastructure on the capacity manner, there is significantly greater flexibility than if of ecosystems to adapt to these changes. individual infrastructure is operated in isolation. · Design: Design of infrastructure can be crucial The increased use of strategic environmental in dictating whether, and the extent to which, assessment provides an important opportunity for infrastructure is capable of facilitating adaptation to integration of risk and vulnerability assessments into future climate shifts. In practical terms, this is likely to the design of infrastructure projects . The 2009 Climate mean that infrastructure should be designed to be and Water Flagship report (World Bank, 2009) discusses the built and operated with more flexibility in order to use of vulnerability assessments for infrastructure projects encompass a number of differential future climate and recommends that risk assessments be undertaken states. Some of the characteristics of infrastructure of projects and their various component parts. There are design that can contribute to the achievement of opportunities to expand the focus of these risk assessments these objectives include dam design and outlets with to include an assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater sufficient capacity to permit a range of environmental ecosystems and their services to climate change in the flow releases, multi-level offtakes to control context of basin or sub-basin vulnerability. 4 Executive Summary program, policy, and technical support maintenance of environmental flows early in the decision- making process. The Bank is well-placed to support client governments to develop their institutional capacity . Support to effective national and basin planning As identified in the Water Anchor report, strong institutions and the strategic environmental planning of water operating within the right institutional framework provide opportunities to promote environmental constitute the first step toward adapting to changes and economic objectives, incorporating informed in climate. As part of this process, appropriate priority analysis of trade-offs in decision making . Effective should be given to building capacity in monitoring and planning of water resources development will be assessment. This will be crucial to providing water resource crucial to adaptive water management. A number of management institutions with the information they need to important tools, collectively called strategic environmental adapt to increased climate variability. assessment (SEA), have been developed to support the integration of long-term environmental considerations into Continued and expanded support to the transboundary, national, and sub-national water resource development of environmental flow policies provides policy and planning. An extensive World Bank review of a key opportunity to promote adaptation . The Bank's the use of SEA in water resources management included review of environmental flows (Hirji and Davis, 2009a) a series of recommendations for the mainstreaming of identified the potential to promote the integration of SEA in the World Bank's water sector work (Hirji and Davis, environmental flows into developing countries' policies 2009b). These strategic assessment exercises provide the through instruments such as country water resources opportunity to include vulnerability assessments. assistance strategies (CWRASs), country assistance strategies (CASs), and country environmental assessments. Programs of support for resource protection, The importance of environmental flows for providing including pollution abatement, water source the resilience needed for climate change adaptation protection, and water efficiency activities, provide provides added urgency to this recommendation. the potential for a win-win or low-regrets response. Opportunities could be actively identified to encourage Support for these activities can provide immediate social, and support client governments to put in place the policy economic, and biodiversity benefits while increasing and implementation framework for the restoration and freshwater adaptive capacity. 5 introduction the context For this review The Strategic Framework is intended to inform and support rather than impose actions on the various entities of the The IPCC Climate Change and Water Technical Paper World Bank Group. Hence, the guiding principles point concluded that observational records and climate operational divisions toward suitable tools, incentives, projections provide abundant evidence that freshwater financial products, and measures to track progress. Despite resources are vulnerable and have the potential to be rapid growth in scientific and economic knowledge about strongly impacted by climate change, with wide-ranging climate development risks, it is recognized that there is consequences for human societies and ecosystems no decision-making framework for handling multiple (Bates, Kudzewicz, and Palutikof 2008). This implies that trade-offs and uncertainties, for example between energy development and conservation programs could fail to investments and biodiversity or water management. realize intended benefits or, worse still, contribute to Therefore, the Framework places strong emphasis on increased exposure of populations to climatic hazards. flexibility and capacity building to ensure that there is learning by doing. Any technical assistance should be This review has been requested by the World Bank from customized to meet local needs. WWF to develop the guiding principles, processes, and methodologies for incorporating anthropogenic climate Given the large uncertainties in climate risk assessment, change within an analytical framework for evaluating water not least due to limited agreement in regional predictions sector projects, with a particular emphasis on impacts on from climate models, the first action area of the Framework ecosystems. It is a contribution toward the development of focuses on financial and technical assistance to vulnerable a systematic approach to climate change adaptation in the countries impacted by current climate variability (floods, Bank's water and environment sectors. droughts, and tropical cyclones). The underlying principle is that "low regret" actions should yield benefits regardless The findings and recommendations are key contributions of future climate policies and risks. In reality, such actions to the Bank's two-sector analysis on (1) the Climate tend to be "low regret" because of either incremental Change and Water Flagship that has been developed or opportunity costs arising from the strengthening of by the Energy, Transport, and Water Department (ETW), climate adaptation and climate mitigation components of and (2) the Biodiversity, Climate Change, and Adaptation development projects. economic and sector analysis prepared by the Environment Department (ENV). This report is also a contribution to the 2010 International Year of Biodiversity. climate change and water World Bank water sector investments will total US$10.6 strategic Framework For climate billion in FY09­10. Of these, over 30 percent have been change and development identified as having high exposure to risk from climate- induced changes to runoff by the 2030s. The Energy, The World Bank Group Strategic Framework has formulated Transport, and Water Department has prepared an AAA advice on operational responses to the development Flagship on water and climate change as a strategic challenges posed by global climate change (World Bank, response to climate change in the water sector. This 2008). Among several major initiatives, the document Flagship includes a main report and a series of supporting envisages routine screening of operations for climate risks technical reports and papers (World Bank, 2009). The to major infrastructure investments with long life spans supporting reports include a synthesis of the science as (such as hydropower and water transfer schemes). The related to climate and the hydrologic cycle, an analysis primary focus is on achieving sustainable development of climate change impacts on groundwater resources and poverty reduction outcomes from national to local and adaptation options, a common platform of climate levels despite climate risks, rather than on managing change projections and methodology for assessment of environmental change, per se. the vulnerability of water systems to hydrologic changes, a review of the Bank's current water investment portfolio to determine the extent to which climate change is considered 7 Flowing Forward at the project-design level, an evaluation of the exposure · Environmental Flows in Water Resources Policies, of the World Bank water sector investments, and strategies Plans, and Projects (Hirji and Davis, 2009a). The report for water and wastewater service providers. The Flagship reviews environmental flow implementation at a also developed a range of adaptation options for increased variety of levels based on 17 international case studies. robustness and resiliency of water systems to climate The report recommends strengthened Bank capacity variability, a framework for risk-based analysis for water in environmental flow assessments, strengthening of investment planning, and recommendations on how the environmental flow assessment in lending operations, Bank can incorporate climate change into its water work. promotion of environmental flows in policies and plans, and an expansion of collaborative partnerships. The current report is one of these Flagship support papers. It applies key lessons and insights from the Flagship analysis · trategic Environmental Assessment: Improving Water S to freshwater ecosystems and provides recommendations Resources Governance and Decision Making (Hirji and on how these lessons and insights can be incorporated into Davis, 2009b). Based on a review of 10 case studies, ongoing Water Anchor processes and activities. It does not this report produced recommendations for the use provide a comprehensive survey of the projected impacts and promotion of SEA as a tool across World Bank of climate change on water resources and the water sector water resources activities. The case studies covered a or of the current state of scientific knowledge concerning range of water-related sectors, including water supply/ these impacts. sanitation; hydropower; water resources; and the environment at strategy, program, and plan levels. The Flagship report provides extensive guidance on existing and potential adaptation responses for the water sector, including risk assessment approaches and options biodiversity, climate change, and adaptation for integration of climate adaptation into project, program, and policy lending and support. It includes a preliminary The World Bank has a large and growing portfolio of discussion of the potential impacts of climate change investment in biodiversity conservation. Between 1988 on freshwater ecosystems. The current report extends and 2008, the World Bank group committed almost $3.5 this preliminary discussion to the provision of specific billion in loans and GEF grants and leveraged $2.7 billion recommendations on adaptation measures for these in co-financing, resulting in a total investment portfolio ecosystems. exceeding $6 billion (World Bank, 2010a). This body of work includes considerations of how water and environment biodiversity investments can adapt to climate change and how investments in biodiversity conservation can make The World Bank has developed a program of work on the an important contribution to broader climate adaptation incorporation of ecosystems and sustainability into water efforts for livelihood security. A recent World Bank review, sector policy and lending to support the implementation Convenient Solutions to an Inconvenient Truth: Ecosystem- of the Bank's Environment Strategy and Water Resources based Approaches to Climate Change (World Bank, Sector Strategy. This work is based on the understanding 2010a), provided a range of options for using biodiversity that freshwater ecosystem integrity is essential to the investment to support adaptation and mitigation efforts, maintenance of a wide range of goods and services with a particular emphasis on the role of protected areas that underpin livelihoods of communities in developing and forest conservation. The recommendations in countries. the current report adopt and apply these results to freshwater ecosystems. As part of this increasing program of work, the World Bank has developed guidance on a number of the key mechanisms that will be important for climate adaptation. objectives, approach, and methodology Two of the most important considerations for protecting freshwater ecosystems are ensuring provisions for This report has two primary objectives: environmental flows and undertaking strategic assessment of water resource development projects, plans, and policies. · To broaden the understanding of climate change Two recent World Bank sector analyses provide a strong impacts on freshwater ecosystems and the ecosystem basis for action in these areas: services that many communities depend on 8 Introduction · To recommend a structured approach (policy and the expert review and the case study process. The second operational guidance) for factoring the ecosystem part describes intervention opportunities for the Bank to implications of climate adaptation into integrated water support the achievement of these objectives. resources planning, design, and operational decisions, as well as biodiversity conservation programs organization of the report The overall report has been developed through a three- stage process. In the first stage, a framework for the analysis This report comprises four chapters. Chapter 1 briefly of climate vulnerability in ecosystems was developed reviews the role and contribution of ecosystem services to through a review of existing literature and approaches. development objectives. Chapter 2 describes the current In the second stage, this framework was trialed through scientific understanding of the potential impacts of climate a series of case studies: an in-depth case study of the change on freshwater ecosystems. Chapter 3 sets out a Okavango wetland, accompanied by case studies of the detailed methodology for undertaking vulnerability and risk Breede (South Africa) and the Mekong and Tocantins- assessment in the context of freshwater ecosystems and Araguaia (Brazil) river basins. In the third stage, results and provides a synthesis of the main findings of the case studies conclusions from these case studies were used to refine that were undertaken in preparation of this report. Chapter the vulnerability assessment methodology and to develop 4 provides recommendations for integrating adaptation detailed recommendations for operations. responses into project and program lending. Short case study illustrations are used throughout the report. Some of The detailed recommendations are divided into two parts. these are drawn from the case studies undertaken for this The first part provides three key management objectives for report; others are taken from other independent works to resource managers and policy makers who want to build illustrate key points and principles. adaptability into freshwater ecosystems. These are based on 9 1. the role oF Freshwater ecosystem services 1.1 Freshwater ecosystem services A wide range of different approaches have been used for characterizing ecosystem services, with an The role of freshwater ecosystem services in providing a increasing number building on the approach adopted range of goods and services that underpin development by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Millennium is increasingly being recognized. Many of these services Assessment, 2005). This provided a comprehensive underpin core development and livelihood objectives, framework for the description of the broad range of often for the poorest and most marginalized groups in services provided by functioning ecosystems, dividing societies. Thus, maintaining healthy ecosystems is not services into provisioning services, regulating services, and a luxury for the wealthy sectors of society but rather an cultural services. Freshwater systems provide significant intrinsic part of providing support for those who are systems in each of these categories. The Millennium reliant on the environment for their livelihoods. In effect, Ecosystem Assessment provided one of many thorough it is maintaining natural infrastructure, equivalent to attempts to survey and evaluate these services, and there constructing and maintaining the built infrastructure that are significant ongoing efforts to build on this work (Layke, provides technological services for society. Unfortunately, 2009). It is not the role of this report to repeat or replicate the role that healthy freshwater systems play, both in these surveys but rather to provide an illustrative indication terms of ecosystem services and in acting as the resource of some of the key findings of this and related work. base upon which a range of freshwater services are based, is often identified only when these systems have been degraded or lost. provisioning services Decisions on how to allocate access to water resources The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment identifies the should always be carried out in a way that distributes the principal provisioning services associated with freshwater benefits efficiently and equitably. Many of the benefits ecosystems (see table 1.1 below). from protection of freshwater ecosystems cannot be valued easily in economic terms. This means that a triple Various attempts have been made to provide valuation of bottom-line approach will be needed where the benefits these services (Costanza et al, 1997, Postel and Carpenter, are measured in social, environmental, and economic 1997). The methodologies and approaches behind terms. The point here is that environmental outcomes are these studies have been the subject of considerable not separate from other benefits but should be seen as discussion and debate, with the broad range of values having a legitimate call on water resources when trade-off reflecting significant methodological differences. The decisions are being made. just-released UNEP Report Dead Planet, Living Planet: Table 1 .1: Selected provisioning services from inland waters (Millennium Assessment, 2005). Freshwater resources are on occasion considered as bridging the gap between provisioning and regulating services. Provisioning Services Food · Production of fish, wild game, fruits, grains, etc. Fiber and fuel · Production of logs, fuelwood, peat, fodder Biochemical · Extraction of materials from biota Genetic materials · Medicine, genes for resistance to plant pathogens, ornamental species, etc. Biodiversity · Species and gene pool 11 Flowing Forward Biodiversity and Ecosystem Restoration for Sustainable and access are growing, there is very little commercial or Development (UNEP, 2010) has also highlighted the huge industrial production in the Siphandone­Stung Treng area. economic benefits that countries might accrue through As a result, individuals and communities within the area restoration of wetlands, river and lake basins, and forested depend heavily on subsistence cultivation and fishing (Try catchments. Whatever the accuracy and utility of these and Chambers, 2006). According to the International Union global valuations, more specific examples can provide clear for Conservation of Nature (IUCN, 2008), roughly 80 percent demonstrations of the value of these services, and many of households in southern Lao PDR participate in wild- are available. capture fisheries, which in turn contribute 20 percent of gross income in the area (IUCN, 2008b). Freshwater fisheries provide one of the most significant freshwater services around the globe. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, Lake Malawi/Nyasa provides 70 to 75 percent regulating services of animal protein consumed in Malawi, while Lake Victoria has historically supported the world's largest freshwater The regulating services of freshwater ecosystems are fishery, yielding 300,000 tons of fish a year worth $600 pervasive and being increasingly recognized as freshwater million. Similarly, in Southeast Asia, the Mekong fishery is a systems degrade, leading to loss of these services. Services regionally significant source of livelihoods and protein. An such as the waste assimilative capacity of freshwater estimated 2 million tons of fish and other aquatic animals systems or recharge of groundwater reserves as a result of are consumed annually in the lower Mekong basin alone, the inundation of floodplain wetlands may not receive the with 1.5 million tons originating from natural wetlands and recognition that they merit until they are lost (Table 1.2). 240,000 tons from reservoirs. The total value of the catch is about $1.2 billion (Sverdrup-Jensen, 2002). The Tonle Sap Many of these regulating services are associated with fishery alone on the Mekong system provides 230,000 tons specific elements of the flow regime and can be impacted a year of fish (ILEC, 2005). in different ways by different modifications to that regime. Waste assimilative capacity is typically impacted These benefits can be locally highly significant, particularly by increasing water stress, for example, while the ability for some of the planet's most vulnerable communities of freshwater systems to maintain sediment transport or where fish is often the only source of animal protein to groundwater recharge may be more dependent on flood or which communities have access (Kura et al., 2004). The pulse events. Siphandone and Stung Treng areas of the Mekong basin are one of the case study locations used in this study. Significant localized and regional examples can serve to Poverty levels within both areas are high. In Mounlapamok illustrate the broader developmental importance of these district, where the Siphandone area lies, between 40 services as part of water resources management planning and 50 percent of households fall below the village-level and projects. From mid-May to early October, flows of the poverty line (Epprecht et al., 2008). While market exposure Mekong River system become so great that the Mekong Table 1 .2: Key regulating services of freshwater systems Regulating Services Flow regulation · Storage and release of flood peaks in wetlands; recharge of groundwater · Maintenance of river channel, wetland, and estuary form and function; Sediment transport provision of sediment to near-shore environments; replenishment of wetland and floodplain sediment · Maintenance of coastal, delta, and mangrove ecosystems; prevention of Flows to marine systems saline intrusion in coastal and estuarine regions · Retention and removal of pollutants and excess nutrients; filtering and Waste assimilation absorption of pollutants 12 The Role of Freshwater Ecosystem Services delta can no longer support the required volumes, and the importance, as it is both lucrative and a major source flows back up the Tonle Sap River and fill the Tonle Sap Lake of foreign exchange. Timber from the mangrove forests system and surrounding floodplain. As noted above, this is an asset of considerable economic significance. Over inundation supports one of the most productive freshwater 150,000 people inhabit the Rufiji delta and floodplain, and fisheries in the world. However, this process also provides the majority of them rely on the resources of the wetland vital regulating services as the flood waters reverse and flow ecosystems for their livelihoods (Hirji et al., 2002). out of Tonle Sap and into the Mekong Delta as the volume of water flowing down the main Mekong channel declines. This crucially permits a second rice crop and controls saline cultural services intrusion into the delta (ILEC, 2005). Freshwater systems are associated with some of the most In the Siphandone area of the Mekong, there is limited year- important cultural services provided by ecosystems around round agricultural land. However, as a consequence of the the world. For many communities, rivers have a deep sacred flow patterns and sediment transport of the river, hundreds or cultural value. This is perhaps most vividly illustrated of kilometers of riverbanks and exposed alluvial deposits in by the River Ganga, in northern India, worshipped as a the area are used to cultivate extensive seasonal vegetable sacred river by millions of Hindus. The scale of this can be gardens (Daconto, 2001). illustrated by the Kumbh Mela festival, held on the banks of the Ganga once every 12 years. These gatherings attract The consequences of the failure of these regulating services over 50 million people and are believed to the largest can be significant. In Pakistan, flows of both freshwater gatherings of people that have ever occurred. Many rivers and sediment to the Indus River Delta have been very provide significant amenity and recreational values to local significantly impacted over recent decades by upstream communities. irrigation and water infrastructure development. The consequences of these reduced freshwater and sediment flows have been rapid declines in the environment of 1.2 challenges and barriers the delta, including saline intrusion into deltaic land and to sustainable Freshwater aquifers, and impacts on delta fisheries and mangroves management (World Bank, 2005). As this area is home to a very large community, the human and environmental consequences The decline in the health of freshwater ecosystems of the loss of these services have been profound. around much of the planet, and the associated reduction in ecosystems services, has been widely reported. As with the Indus, the ongoing management challenges Comprehensive global data sets that provide a systematic of the Yellow River have been well-recorded. Among these and comprehensive record of the health and status of challenges has been increased flood risk in the lower Yellow freshwater ecosystems are unavailable. However, based River basin as a result of increased sedimentation driven by on available data sets, global surveys have identified increased erosion in the basin and reduced scouring due freshwater ecosystems as suffering from greater alteration to a reduction in peak flow levels in the river (Giordano, and degradation than any other ecosystem on the planet. 2004). The management of the Yellow River indicates the Hence, the 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment challenges presented in seeking to maintain key regulating concluded: functions in large river basins. Inland water habitats and species are in worse Freshwater systems also provide important regulating condition than those of forest, grassland or coastal services to estuarine, deltaic, and near-shore environments. systems ... It is well established that for many Maintenance of key elements of the flow of freshwater is ecosystem services, the capacity of inland water often important to the maintenance of ecosystems such as systems to produce these services is in decline and mangroves and estuarine fisheries, which in turn provide is as bad or worse than that of other systems ... very significant development benefits. For example, the role The species biodiversity of inland water is among of healthy mangrove forests in reducing flood risk is being the most threatened of all ecosystems, and in many increasingly recognized. To provide one instance of the parts of the world is in continuing and accelerating importance of these estuarine systems, some 80 percent decline. (Millennium Assessment, 2005) of Tanzania's prawn harvest is currently derived from the Rufiji River Delta. This fishery is of particular economic 13 Flowing Forward These conclusions have been reflected in the recent Global the highest-profile pieces of legislation that attempt a Biodiversity Outlook 3, published by the Convention on comprehensive approach to freshwater sustainability Biological Diversity. This concluded: are the European Union's Water Framework Directive (2000) and the South African National Water Act (1998). Rivers and their floodplains, lakes and wetlands Alongside these comprehensive efforts, a range of sectoral have undergone more dramatic changes than policy and regulatory interventions aimed at improved any other type of ecosystem. (Secretariat of the environmental sustainability have been developed, Convention on Biological Diversity, 2010) including a very significant global increase in interest in policies to protect and restore environmental flows (Hirji The drivers of this decline are multiple, reflecting the and Davis, 2009a). Major developing countries are now range of uses to which freshwater systems are put. Global looking to recognize environmental flows in their water Biodiversity Outlook 3 concurred with many other global resources management policy; the recently gazetted studies to conclude that the principal drivers of freshwater National Ganga River Basin Authority in India has as one biodiversity decline included abstraction of water for of its objectives the "maintenance of minimum ecological irrigation, industrial, and household use; the input of flows in the River Ganga, with the aim of ensuring water nutrients and other pollutants into freshwater systems; quality and environmentally sustainable development" the damming of rivers for hydropower, storage, and flood (MOEF, 2009); similarly, the Chinese Ministry of Water control purposes; and the modification and drainage of Resources is currently drawing up national environmental freshwater habitats and wetlands. flow standards (Speed, 2010). Important initiatives on environmental flow policy are also at various stages of In recognition of the importance of freshwater ecosystems development and implementation in other developing and the services that they provide, environmental countries around the world, including Central and Latin sustainability is recognized as a core principle of integrated American nations, East Africa and southern African water resources management, enshrined in the first of countries, and countries in Southeast Asia. the Dublin Principles, which recognizes that "effective management of water resources demands a holistic Despite these efforts, there remain very significant approach, linking social and economic development barriers to the achievement of sustainable management with protection of natural ecosystems." This increasing of freshwater resources. Increasing demand for irrigated recognition has led to the significant development of tools agriculture, energy, and water for industrial and domestic and approaches that seek to ensure the maintenance, purposes provides a context in which pressure on protection, and restoration of ecosystems and ecosystem sustainable management of freshwater ecosystems will be services in ongoing water resources management efforts. increasing. Key institutional challenges include institutional fragmentation and competing mandates in the water Examples of these efforts can be given from around the sector, an inadequate information base, inadequate world. These include major and groundbreaking pieces of technical and administrative capacities, corruption and legislation that seek to give effect to the core principles governance challenges, outdated or weak policy and of IWRM, placing water resources management at the regulatory frameworks, and a lack of recognition of the role core of water planning and decision making. Among and function of ecosystem services. 14 2. climate change and Freshwater ecosystems Climate-sustainable freshwater management is critical for have been rising more rapidly than have air temperatures. economic development in both developed and developing On the other hand, in regions where there is greater countries (World Bank, 2010b). However, under current snowmelt, water temperatures for some ecosystems may projections, virtually all freshwater ecosystems will face actually decline while air temperatures increase. ecologically significant climate change impacts by the middle of this century, most of which will be detrimental Precipitation . Precipitation is projected to increase from the perspective of existing freshwater ecosystems and globally. However, this is expected to vary geographically the human livelihoods and communities that depend upon and temporally. Increases in the amount of precipitation them. There will be few if any "untouched" ecosystems, and are likely at high latitudes. At low latitudes, both regional many water bodies are likely to be profoundly transformed in increases and decreases in precipitation over land areas key ecological characteristics because of changes in drivers are likely. Drought-affected areas will probably increase such as flow regime, thermal stratification patterns, and the in extent, and extreme precipitation events are likely to propensity to cycle between oligotrophic (nutrient poor) increase in frequency and intensity. In many places there and eutrophic (nutrient-rich and typically algae-dominated) will be changes in the timing of precipitation even if mean states. This chapter builds on existing reviews to provide annual precipitation remains relatively constant. an outline of how climate change will alter freshwater ecosystems (Rosenzweig, Casassa, Karoly, 2007; Fischlin et al., Evapotranspiration and sublimation . Potential 2007; CCSP, 2009; EA, 2005; Hansen, Biringer, and Hoffman, evaporation (a physical change of state from liquid water 2003; Poff, Brinson, and Day, 2002; Wrona, et al., 2006). to water vapor) is controlled by atmospheric humidity, net radiation, wind speed, and temperature, and is predicted to increase almost everywhere under global warming. 2.1 a changing Freshwater climate Actual evaporation is also predicted to increase over open water, following the predicted patterns of surface Discussions of the impacts of climate change typically focus warming. Changes in evapotranspiration over land are on rising mean air temperatures and the impacts associated somewhat more difficult to predict because of competing with these. However, in the freshwater context, the impacts effects of increased carbon dioxide levels on plant water of climate change on freshwater ecosystems will be loss. Additionally, the amount and/or rate of sublimation manifest through a variety of variables. The key variables (the physical change of state from frozen water directly to are discussed below. water vapor) of seasonal snowpack and glaciers appears to also be increasing, which means that this water is "lost" to Temperature . Air temperatures are projected to increase the basin and passes directly to the atmosphere without in the 21st century, with geographical patterns similar entering freshwater ecosystems. to those observed over the last few decades. Warming is expected to be greatest over land and at the highest Runoff . Changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration northern latitudes, and least over the southern oceans and will combine to change runoff. Runoff is likely to increase parts of the North Atlantic. It is very likely that hot extremes at higher latitudes and in some wet tropics, including East and heat waves will continue to become more frequent. and Southeast Asia, and decrease over much of the mid- The ratio between rain and snow is likely to change to latitudes and dry tropics, including many areas that are more liquid precipitation due to increased temperatures. presently water stressed. Water volume stored in glaciers Changes in water temperatures are more difficult to predict. and snowpack is likely to decline, resulting in decreases in Generally speaking, surface water systems with a large summer and autumn flows in affected areas. Some changes surface-to-volume ratio will tend to track local/regional can already be seen. Changes in the seasonality of runoff air temperature trends, but many qualities of particular are widely observed. For instance, in most mountainous ecosystems (and types of ecosystems) can modify this regions, there is less frozen precipitation falling, more trend. For instance, changes in the date of ice breakup for rain, and lower amounts of snowpack accumulation in large lakes can lead to shifts in the timing and number of winter, along with accelerated spring melting. Globally, thermal stratification events (i.e., the seasonal mixing of even in non-mountainous regions, the seasonal timing of warm and cold layers). In some regions, water temperatures precipitation is changing. 15 Flowing Forward Sea level. Conservatively, global mean sea level is expected a freshwater perspective, this often results in both more to rise by 0.18 m to 0.59 m by the end of the 21st century, droughts and more floods, often with longer duration and due to thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of greater severity (or intensity). For ecosystems, species, and glaciers and ice-caps. Coastal and estuarine regions are also people, this type of climate change is probably far more likely to be affected by larger extreme wave events and significant than changes in mean climate, even when tropical storm surges. both types of changes are occurring simultaneously. Most climate models are not able to predict with confidence For these physical variables, change may occur via one of changes in climate variability. three trajectories (see figure 2.1): "State-level" or "modal" change in climate . State-level A gradual change in "mean" climate . Variables such as change is the shift of climate from a period of relative air temperature, mean precipitation, or even mean monthly climatic stability, followed by a period of rapid shifts in extreme precipitation may shift in a relatively even way many climate variables (passing a climate tipping point in some regions. Most climate models have a bias toward or "threshold"), followed by another period of relative depicting climate change as a gradual shift in mean stability. Ecosystems that depend on climate can also variables. However, this is perhaps likely to be the least exhibit these types of behaviour. Examples of this type of characteristic way in which climate change will be manifest modal change include the rapid disappearance of glaciers for freshwater ecosystems. in Glacier National Park (glacier to snowpack to tundra to grasslands and forest); the sudden initiation, cessation, Changes in the degree of climate variability around or spatial shifting of ocean currents; and major shifts in some mean value . In contrast to a shift in the mean value cyclical timing of global climate engines such as El Niño or of some climate variable, the frequency and degree of the North Atlantic oscillation. On even larger scales, many extreme weather events are shifting in most regions. From major glacial-interglacial transitions occupied only a few Figure 2 .1: Three trajectories for climate change. Of these three, a change in "mean" climate is the focus of most climate models but is likely to be the least common. A change in "mean" climate drought extreme event flood A change in climate variability extreme event tipping point tipping point State level or stepwise climate change 16 Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems decades. Modal change is extremely difficult to model interactions), river scientists refer to the flow regime and predict, though the paleoclimatic record shows many as a "master variable." (Krchnak et al., 2009) instances of stability-transition-stability climate shifts. Examples of modal change are likely to be the contexts in The flow regime effectively acts like a clock for species which ecological and economic shocks are triggered. and ecosystems (Poff 1997), and changing the timing of the clock has profound ecological consequences. Indeed, many freshwater conservation biologists now recommend 2.2 ecosystem impacts oF that these ecosystems be managed for variability (Poff, climate change 2010). This is because many terrestrial and virtually all aquatic species are sensitive to water timing. The behavior, The responses of freshwater ecosystems to a changing physiology, and developmental processes of most aquatic climate can be described in terms of three different but organisms are adapted to particular water timing regimes, interrelated components: water quantity or volume, such as fish spawning during spring floods or accelerated water timing and water quality. A change in one of these metamorphosis from tadpole to adult frog in a rapidly components often leads to shifts in the others as well. drying wetland. Shifts in flow patterns mean that there may be detrimental mismatches between behavior and the Water quantity refers to the water volume of a given aquatic habitat. In turn, these shifts can affect important ecosystem, which is controlled through the balance of ecosystem services such as provision of sufficient fish stock inflows (precipitation, runoff, groundwater seepage) and for capture fisheries. outflows (water abstractions, evapotranspiration, natural outflows). The most striking changes in water quantity Water quality refers to how appropriate a particular may well occur through precipitation extremes leading ecosystem's water is for some "use," whether biological or to floods and droughts; lake and wetland levels can also economic. Many fish species, for instance, have narrow change radically as a result of even slight changes in the habitat quality preferences for dissolved oxygen, water balance between precipitation and evaporation rates. The temperature, dissolved sediment, and pH. occurrence of extreme precipitation events is expected to continue to increase globally, as is the severity of extreme Table 2.1 summarizes the range of impacts from climate events themselves. Changes in water quantity are likely change that are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems. to have impacts on freshwater ecosystems, on occasion The key "eco-hydrological" impacts mediate between through increased flooding but more often through an changes in the physical climate and impacts on freshwater increase in water stress. ecosystems. The range of impacts that a changing climate is likely to have on freshwater ecosystems is therefore Water timing or water seasonality (also described as broad and will depend on the particular context. Given hydropattern, hydroperiod, or flow regime) is the variation the importance of flow timing, it is likely that changes to in water quantity over some period of time, usually reported patterns of freshwater flows will be the most significant as a single year. Ecologists describe freshwater flow regimes and most pervasive of these impacts. The most significant as the primary determinant of freshwater ecosystem climate-induced risk to ecosystems to emerge from the function and for the species within and dependent on case studies prepared for this report was the impact of low freshwater ecosystems. This has been recognized in World flows and altered hydrological conditions, especially flow Bank operational approaches to freshwater: regime. It is important to note that climate-driven low-flow impacts can increase even in the context of consistent During recent decades, scientists have amassed annual average precipitation as a result of increased considerable evidence that a river's flow regime variability in annual precipitation, as a result of increased -- its variable pattern of high and low flows seasonality and shifts in water timing, as a result of reduced throughout the year, as well as variation across groundwater recharge resulting from more intense rainfall many years -- exerts great influence on river events, and as a result of increased evapotranspiration and ecosystems. Each component of a flow regime greater demand for water. -- ranging from low flows to floods -- plays an important role in shaping a river ecosystem. Due As outlined in section 2.1, climate change impacts can to the strong influence of a flow regime on the be broadly classified as falling into two categories: shifts other key environmental factors (water chemistry, in climate variability (e.g., drought and flood frequency/ physical habitat, biological composition, and severity) and shifts in mean climate (e.g., the precipitation 17 Flowing Forward Table 2 .1: Key eco-hydrological impacts of climate change on ecosystems and species Eco-hydrological Impacts of climate change Impacts for ecosystems and species impacts Changes in volume and timing of precipitation 1. Increased low-flow Reduced habitat availability episodes and water Increased evapotranspiration stress Increased temperature and pollution levels Shift from snow to rain, and/or earlier snowpack melt Impacts on flow-dependent species Reduced groundwater recharge Impacts on estuarine ecosystems Increase in the variability and timing of monsoon Increased demand for water in response to higher temperatures and climate mitigation responses Shift from snow to rain, and/or earlier snowpack melt 2. Shifts in timing Impacts on spawning and emergence cues for of floods and critical behaviors Changes in precipitation timing freshwater pulses Impacts on key hydrology-based life-cycle stages Increase in the variability and timing of annual (e.g., migration, wetland and lake flooding) monsoon Increased temperatures 3. Increased Permanent water bodies become temporary/ evaporative losses ephemeral, changing mix of species (e.g., from Reduced precipitation and runoff from shallower fish-dominated to fairy shrimp­dominated) water bodies Increased precipitation and runoff 4. Higher and more Floods remove riparian and bottom-dwelling frequent storm organisms More intense rainfall events flows Changes in structure of available habitat cause range shifts and wider floodplains Less shading from near-channel vegetation leads to extreme shallow water temperatures Changes in air temperature and seasonality 5. Shifts in the Species requiring cold-water layers lose habitat seasonality Changes in the ice breakup dates of lakes and frequency Thermal refuges disappear of thermal More frequent algal-dominated eutrophic stratification (i.e., periods from disturbances of sediment; warmer normal seasonal water mixing of cold and warm layers) in Species acclimated to historical hydroperiod and lakes and wetlands stratification cycle are disrupted, may need to shift ranges in response Reduced precipitation and runoff 6. Saltwater Increased mortality of saline-intolerant species encroachment in and ecosystems Higher storm surges from tropical storms coastal, deltaic, and low-lying Salinity levels will alter coastal habitats for many Sea-level rise species in estuaries and up to 100 km inland ecosystems Increase in intensity and frequency of extreme 7. More intense Increase of algal-dominated eutrophic periods precipitation events runoff, leading to during droughts increased sediment and pollution loads Raised physiological and genetic threats from old industrial pollutants such as dioxins Changes in air temperature 8. Hot or cold- Direct physiological thermal stress on species water conditions Increased variability in temperature and shifts in More frequent eutrophic periods during warm concentration of seasons dissolved oxygen Oxygen starvation for gill-breathing organisms Miscues for critical behaviors such as migration and breeding 18 Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems regime changes in seasonality, as when spring rains water timing has already changed in most regions as a arrive a month earlier, or less winter precipitation falls result of climate change, and the rate and degree of these as snow). Many regions globally are seeing increases in changes will be accelerating in coming decades. climate variability, but the seasonality of precipitation and evapotranspiration regimes is changing universally, even in As a result, by focusing on how water timing is shifting, the absence of changes in the mean annual precipitation we can contextualize how "normal" quantity and quality (IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2008). Because changes in water timing are changing in a manner that is relevant to ecosystems, result in changes in water quantity and quality, shifts in the biodiversity, and livelihoods. Accordingly, one can visualize timing of freshwater flows have become a leading driver a tapestry of risks across a freshwater landscape (described in global declines in freshwater biodiversity as a result of at the basin or catchment level), with particular risks a range of anthropogenic impacts. As the pace of climate manifesting at different points in time and space. For change quickens, this pressure is likely to accelerate. example, smaller and low-volume headwater streams are more likely to be vulnerable to low-flow impacts than are larger, high-volume, and main stems of river systems. 2.3 sensitivity: risk and hot spots Equally, the variability of hydrological systems means The literature describing the threats to water and climate risks will also be uneven in time, both inter- and freshwater ecosystems is large and growing rapidly; intra-annually. Systems may be at risk for only a short the tone is often dire and alarmist, with widespread period of the year; for example, during the dry season predictions of a global water crisis. Perhaps as a result when river systems may already be vulnerable to water of the unfortunate term "global warming," such a crisis is stress. Intra-annual variability may also mean that systems frequently framed as increasing water scarcity. These views remain unstressed for a number of years but then are not represented in either the observed or projected experience a damaging, climate-driven drought. Thus, key data as reported in IPCC reports (e.g., Bates et al., 2008). vulnerabilities to climate change may occur for just a few The IPCC has concluded that globally the hydrological weeks or months in a decade. It is important to identify cycle is intensifying, which means that the atmosphere these time- and space-bounded risks when designing holds more water vapor than in recent decades, and adaptation responses. global precipitation volume appears to be increasing. It is also important to understand the determinants of However, this does not mean that all places are receiving sensitivity and vulnerability in freshwater ecosystems more precipitation relative to the pre-industrial era or when designing adaptation responses. Sensitivity even that regions that are receiving more precipitation describes the characteristics of a freshwater ecological actually have greater runoff (and higher flows). The effects system that make it sensitive to changes in the of climate change are not evenly distributed globally or environment. These changes may be in terms of water across a particular landscape or a basin, and certainly not quantity, quality, timing, or a combination of the three. in regard to such aspects of climate as precipitation and Not all ecosystems will be equally sensitive, with some evapotranspiration, projections of which are considered freshwater ecosystems and species better able to highly uncertain and low confidence at the regional and withstand climate shifts than others. local scales (Bates et al., 2008). Similarly, in temperate, tropical, and subtropical regions fed by seasonal Given that changes to the volume and timing of flows snowpack, there are worrying reports that while wet- are likely to be the most profound impacts of climate season precipitation is growing, accumulated snow may change on freshwater ecosystems, freshwater systems be sublimating (i.e., becoming water vapor rather than that already experience threats to their flow patterns on a melting and entering the surface or groundwater cycle regular basis are likely to be the most sensitive to climate as liquid water) more often, resulting in lower dry-season change. Thus, the ephemeral pans and rivers of the Boteti flows. Within this report's case studies, we see trends in in Botswana are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate several climate variables, such as increasing precipitation change, as the ecosystem is very sensitive to changes (Tocantins, Siphandone­Stung Treng), lengthening dry in rainfall and the area is likely to experience significant periods (Okavango, Breede), and more frequent and severe drying in the future. Importantly, this sensitivity may not extreme weather events (all cases). However, these studies be a function of total annual water stress across the basin describe local events and cannot be used to generalize but of seasonal vulnerability to water stress. For similar regional or global trends. What we can be certain of is that reasons, systems with limited assimilative capacity are 19 Flowing Forward likely to be more sensitive to climate changes, particularly box 2.1: potential impacts of shifts in systems already experiencing considerable stress from water timing on the himalayan mahseer non-climate pressures. The Himalayan, or golden, mahseer (Tor putitora Hamilton) While there are certain characteristics that may make is a fish that is endemic to about 25 major Himalayan rivers freshwater ecosystems sensitive to climate change and a few (5­10) rivers in the northeast hills south of the impacts, there are equally some characteristics of Brahmaputra. However, only the foothill sections are inhabited freshwater ecosystems that confer resilience. These include by the species, restricting the effective available habitat in any river to about 50 km, although nearly 100 km of river may be the presence of a diversity of habitats within a system, used during upstream migration. The total population of Tor providing refugia for species or ecosystems at times of putitora Hamilton may thus be spread over about 3,000 km of climate-induced stress. river length, most of which is already degraded or threatened. Existing and proposed hydroelectric plants are a particular 2.4 tipping points versus threat to habitat and connectivity. The golden mahseer gradual change provides an attractive fishery by virtue of its size. Some ecosystems can have tipping points that can be Mahseer have to migrate ~50 km upstream into shallow, triggered by large-scale shifts in climate regime but spring-fed tributaries and lay their spawn when the can also occur following more modest shifts in climate. monsoon is in full swing and rivulets are constantly flooded. Many discussions of the impacts of climate change Their ascent begins with the advent of summer and melting of glaciers after February into the deeper, glacier-fed rivers. on ecosystems point to key tipping points that whole The migratory habits serve to disperse the stock, exhibiting ecosystems will experience. Examples of such tipping a food resource utilization strategy. The species appears to points are the geomorphological changes in a river be stenothermic (narrow range for temperature tolerance, channel following an extreme flood, with extensive habitat probably 12­19oC). Migration in the context of water destruction and system disequilibrium; the dramatic temperatures and the timing of runoff is thus crucial to the biogeochemical responses within a water body when survival of the species. nutrient levels exceed the eutrophic threshold and a series of algal bloom and anoxic events ensue; and the shift in a Climate change impacts on snowfall, glacial melt, and wetland from a permanent water body to an ephemeral or the timing of spring snowmelt are likely to have a variety temporary system. of impacts on runoff that may, in turn, impact both the migration requirements and nursery habitat of mahseer. For While tipping points will occur in some freshwater example, warming is likely to result in reduced snow cover and therefore lower spring flow in the snow-fed rivers. A ecosystems, other systems will undergo slow, steady reduction in discharge will expose riffles and endanger the degeneration in the face of climate change. Productivity connectivity of the pools, thereby causing stress to migrating is undermined and species are gradually lost as elements individuals. Reduced turbidity, lower current velocities, and of the system are stressed. For example, increased water a rise in water temperature as a result of climate change will temperatures and reduced flow levels may lead to a distort the familiar cues for upward migration. The decrease decrease in the quantity and diversity of invertebrate in current velocities will increase detritus levels and create a species, leading, in turn, to declines in fish populations. shift from oligotrophic to mesotrophic conditions, causing These gradual impacts of climate change will often be algal blooms. Dissolved oxygen content will also decline exacerbated by additional impacts from other human- with a rise in temperature, affecting physiological processes induced stresses. and energy needs during migration. A disturbed ecosystem is prone to biological invasions, potentially changing the food web. These effects could result in the loss of spawning grounds and nurseries for this species. 2.5 understanding Future impacts: caveat emptor Source: Professor Prakash Nautiyal, HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar As conceded by the IPCC FAR, the documented evidence base for climate impacts on tropical regions and the Southern Hemisphere is sparse. The evidence is even more limited when the search is focused on freshwater ecosystems. The lack of documentation does not imply that effects are not widespread or significant for species 20 Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems box 2.2: salmonids: the fruit of extensive climate impact research A series of environmental trends across western North America At the same time, reduced summer flow will decrease available has been identified that has direct relevance to many aspects living space within individual stream reaches and may also of salmonid habitat. These trends include warmer and more reduce productivity, growth, and survival by decreasing positive variable air temperatures (Sheppard et al., 2002; Abatzoglou and interactions with surrounding terrestrial ecosystems (Baxter et al., Redmond, 2007), increasing precipitation variability (Knowles 2005; Harvey et al., 2006; Berger and Gresswell, 2009; McCarthy et al., 2006), decreasing snowpack volume, earlier snowmelt et al., 2009). Some upstream tributaries could switch from (Hamlet et al., 2005; Mote et al., 2005), and increasing wildfire perennial to intermittent flow, eliminating salmonid habitats activity (Westerling et al., 2006; Morgan et al., 2008). The timing entirely (e.g., Schindler et al., 1996). In the remaining permanent of peak spring runoff has advanced from several days to weeks streams, increasing variability in drought and flood cycles may across most of western North America (Barnett et al., 2008). also decrease the likelihood of salmonid population persistence Less snow and earlier runoff reduce aquifer recharge, reducing or begin to favor some species over others (Seegrist and Gard, baseflow contributions to streams in summer (Stewart et al., 1972; Beechie et al., 2006; Warren et al., 2009). 2005; Luce and Holden, in review; Rood et al., 2008). Inter-annual variation in stream flow is increasing, as is the persistence of Despite a relative wealth of knowledge regarding salmonid extreme conditions across years (McCabe et al., 2004; Pagano fishes, case histories documenting long-term responses either in and Garen, 2005). In many areas of western North America, flood habitat conditions or at the population level are relatively rare. risks have increased in association with warmer temperatures Juanes et al. (2004) documented advances in initial and median during the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2007). migration dates of 0.5 day per year over a 23-year period for Streams with midwinter temperatures near freezing have proven Atlantic salmon along the East Coast of North America. Hari and especially sensitive to increased flooding because of their colleagues (2006) linked long-term warming trends in stream transitional hydrologies (mixtures of rainfall and snowmelt) and temperatures across Switzerland to outbreaks of fish diseases the occasional propensity for rain-on-snow events to rapidly in thermally marginal areas and upstream shifts in brown trout melt winter snowpacks and generate large floods (Hamlet and populations. Isaak and colleagues (in review) assessed water Lettenmaier, 2007). Stream temperatures in many areas are temperature trends across a large river network in central Idaho increasing (Peterson and Kitchell, 2001; Morrison et al., 2002; and found summer temperature means to be increasing at the Bartholow, 2005) due to both air temperature increases and rate of 0.27°C per decade, which was eliminating habitat for the summer flow reductions, which make streams more responsive native char species at a rate of 0.9 to 1.6 percent per year. to warmer air temperatures. However, most assessments linking salmonids and climate These complex, climate-induced effects are shifting habitat change are based on model predictions of future conditions. For distributions for salmonids, sometimes unpredictably, in both example, Rieman et al. (2007) estimated that a 1.6°C temperature time and space. A warming climate will gradually increase the increase across the southern extent of the bull trout range quality and extent of habitat into regions that are currently in western North America would eliminate approximately unsuitable for some salmonid species because of cold 50 percent of currently suitable thermal habitat. The analysis temperatures (e.g., at the highest elevations and northern highlighted considerable spatial variation in habitat losses, distributional extents; Nakano et al., 1996; Coleman and Fausch, with the coldest, steepest, and highest-elevation mountains 2007). Previously constrained populations are expected to projected to lose a smaller proportion of habitat than warmer expand into these new habitats. Some evidence suggests and less-steep areas. In a similar assessment for nearby this may already be happening in Alaska, where recently de- populations of Chinook salmon, however, the highest-elevation glaciated streams are being colonized by emigrants from nearby habitats were projected to be most sensitive as hydrologies salmon and char populations (Milner et al., 2000). On the other shifted from snowmelt to rainfall runoff, and lower-elevation hand, human-induced warming will render previously suitable habitats appeared to offer the best conservation opportunities habitats unsuitable. (Batten et al., 2007). 21 Flowing Forward and ecosystems. A lack of meteorological data hampers model "explanations" -- including rising greenhouse both predictions of impacts on freshwater ecosystems gas concentrations, vegetation changes, natural climate and the management of water resources for humans. variability, and interactions between these variables -- are Mid- and low-latitude regions have suffered a demise of revealed. This uncertainty increases as predictions are made monitoring networks since the 1980s that has been long for more distant time periods and for smaller spatial scales. recognized (WMO, 2005). Without reliable records of river flow, evaporation, groundwater levels, and water quality, it is The common practice of providing average results from difficult to interpret past change in freshwater ecosystems. In "ensembles" of models can be highly misleading. The results addition, detailed information on freshwater biota is available may be biased by strong outliers, and the practice can for only a few taxonomic groups -- and often for only a few also misrepresent differences and disagreements between families, genera, or species in those groups (Heino, Virkkala, models. It is particularly difficult to assess ecosystem and Toivonen, 2009). Even where data exist, national security impacts using these modeled outputs because the majority or competing interests between agencies can restrict access. of studies focus on gradual shifts in either the mean or seasonality of climate and associated impacts. Relatively There have been attempts to model the impacts of climate little information is available on changes in (precipitation) change on ecosystems. Because of the data limitations, extremes, variability, or abrupt transitions at the scales these models are not definitive but can give guidance on required for adaptation and development planning (Wilby where impacts may be likely to occur. Although there is et al., 2009). However, it is precisely these changes that may strong consensus among climate models about future air have the most profound impacts for freshwater ecosystems. temperatures, predicted patterns of rainfall and runoff are Climate model projections for evapotranspiration, humidity, far less certain, especially for developing regions (figure and indirect and synergistic impacts are even more tenuous 2.2). Even for annual average precipitation, about half the than for precipitation. Thus, even where the models agree, regions shown have inconsistent predictions as to whether there is insufficient detail for high-confidence quantitative future precipitation and runoff will increase or decrease. water resource planning at the river basin scale -- even This lack of consensus reflects a weak understanding of large river basins such as the Mississippi in North America fundamental climate controls in many regions, leading to or the Yangtze in China. different interpretations of land-atmosphere processes and model outputs. For example, when these models are In addition, climate models on their own are insufficient to applied to past events such as the abrupt drying across the provide details of impacts on ecosystems. This requires that Sahel in the late 1960s to "test" model validity, contradictory the outputs of climate models be fed into typically complex Figure 2 .2: Changes in precipitation for the period 2090­2099 relative to 1980­1999. Values are multi-model averages based on the SRES A1B scenario for December to February (left) and June to August (right). White areas are where less than 66 percent of the models agree in the sign of the change, and stippled areas are where more than 90 percent of the models agree in the sign of the change (IPCC 2007). 22 Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems Figure 2 .3: Uncertainty about the future increases as results from uncertain models are combined. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 3.3. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.. ClIMATE SCIENCE HydROlOGy ECOlOGy Global Runoff Ecosystem Species Climate Models Models Models Models UNCERTAINTy ABOUT THE FUTURE hydrological models and then into ecological models. box 2.3: impacts and physiology: There are clear dangers to the amplification of initial climate bioclimate envelope and ecosystem model errors. modeling Undoubtedly, climate models will improve, but climate The ability to model the macro-scale impacts of climate science faces significant modeling challenges. For the change has improved because of habitat- and species- foreseeable future, it would be unwise to base complex specific bioclimatic envelope and mechanistic vegetation ecosystem adaptation responses on deterministic climate modeling (Scholtze et al., 2006). Bioclimatic models combine information about suitable "climate space" and models. Nevertheless, decisions cannot be put off because dispersal capability (based on species' traits) to predict the of this uncertainty. This implies that, as discussed in chapter ecological consequences of different climate scenarios. 3, the assessment of ecosystem vulnerability should be For example, recent work has highlighted the vulnerability based on risk assessment rather than on deterministic of Europe's small and isolated network of Natura 2000 modeling (Matthews and Wickel, 2009; Matthews, Aldous, wetland ecosystems and in particular the potential for range and Wickel, 2009). contractions in amphibians, a group closely associated with freshwater ecosystems (Voss et al., 2008; Araujo, Thuiller, and Despite this caution, climate models remain suitable for Pearson, 2006). Although potentially useful for predicting the highlighting broad qualitative trends in hydrological spread of exotic invasive species (e.g., zebra mussels), these behavior. For example, higher air temperatures mean that models neglect or overemphasize particular determinants more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, of species' distributions, such as population dynamics, interspecies interactions, or the direct physiological effects and that the onset of spring snowmelt is earlier (and of increased carbon dioxide concentrations. So far there sometimes more rapid). Hence the Andes, Tibetan plateau, have been very few (if any) bioclimatic studies in developing much of North America, Scandinavia, and the European regions except for global analyses of extinction risk (Pounds Alps are expected to see increased seasonality of flows et al., 2006). For freshwater ecosystems, this approach with higher spring peaks and lower summer flows. Other typically combines eco-hydrological models with climate robust predictions include higher flows in rivers fed by scenarios and is applied to commercially important fish melting snowpacks and glaciers over the next few decades, species. In most cases they should not be applied in a followed by reductions once these stores have wasted deterministic fashion. At best, they provide some qualitative (Barnett, Adams, and Lettenmaier, 2005). Likewise, warmer estimate of simplistic, species-level responses to small shifts temperatures will favor more evaporation and drying of in climate variables. 23 Flowing Forward soils, increasing the risk of drought and depleted runoff, as There are many examples of these synergistic effects: is anticipated for the margins of the Mediterranean basin. · The accidental transfer of an aquatic exotic species to a freshwater ecosystem that is warming and more 2.6 climate change and other human suitable to the invasive could fuel a rapid decline in pressures ecosystem quality for the preexisting native species. In the majority of cases, damage to freshwater ecosystems · Higher volumes of groundwater abstraction associated will occur as a result of the synergistic impacts of climate with coastal zone development will hasten ingress of change with other anthropogenic pressures arising from saltwater to shallow aquifers that are also at risk from population and economic growth or land-use change. In rising sea levels. many cases, climate will not be the predominant driver of freshwater biodiversity loss over the next half century. This · The impact of increased freshwater temperatures conclusion was reinforced by the case studies undertaken will lead to increased risks of eutrophication, driven for this report. In all cases where climate impacts were by raised levels of nutrient enrichment by human identified as a risk, this was as a consequence of symbiotic activities. effects with other human pressures. In the case of the Tocantins-Araguaia River basin in Brazil, the case study · Changes to land use will increase the flood and concluded clearly that climate change was likely to have a pollution impacts of more intense rainfall events under far less significant impact on ecosystems in the foreseeable climate change. future than other human pressures (WWF, at press). It is imperative, therefore, that climate impacts be understood Clearly, systems with fewer such traditional stresses will be as part of the broader set of pressures impacting more inherently resilient and capable of adapting on their freshwater systems. own. Human impacts thus remain a critical focus of sound, sustainable resource management in an era of a shifting climate. However, focusing on only these traditional pressures is not enough. Vulnerability assessments should be used to identify additional pressures arising from box 2.4: compounding pressures: water climate change. scarcity and agriculture At river basin scales, projected rates of population and mitigation, adaptation, and mal-adaptation economic growth are expected to be much stronger determinants of local water scarcity than is climate change There can be interactions between climate mitigation (Arnell, 2004). The International Water Management measures and climate adaption measures that affect Institute (2007) estimates that the water requirements for aquatic ecosystems. First, changes to temperatures and agriculture could double by 2050, before considerations of climate change have been factored in. This implies that precipitation are likely to lead to changes in demand for even under static climate conditions there will have to be water. In irrigated agriculture, increased temperatures are trade-offs between water used for local food production likely to lead to increased evapotranspiration, increasing and water required to sustain aquatic ecosystems. This water demand, and decreasing runoff. At the same time, situation is illustrated in the Breede system in the Western changes to either the quantity or timing of precipitation Cape, South Africa. The Breede estuary is one of the most may make areas that are currently viable for dryland important and productive estuarine fisheries in South Africa agriculture dependent on irrigation in the future. It is but has been affected by low inflows due to upstream precisely in these contexts where reduced precipitation and abstraction for agriculture. The water futures identified for increased temperatures are driving increased demand for the basin threaten to exacerbate this impact due to drying irrigation that freshwater systems will already be starting to climate conditions. Increased irrigated agriculture has been experience low-flow impacts. Increasing temperatures are identified as an important growth strategy. Such a scenario would lead to saline intrusion, siltation of the river mouth, also likely to drive increased demand for urban water use. and temperature impacts in the estuary (WWF, at press). Second, some attempts to enable human societies and economies to respond to climate change may decrease the ability of ecosystems to adapt. Examples of this are likely 24 Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems box 2.5: compounding the devastating effects of development on lake chad's dwindling water resources Lake Chad, like so many of the world's closed (internally draining) states regarding borders and the ownership of the dwindling basins, is experiencing extreme stress. It is a shallow lake at the water resources. edge of the Sahara desert and is economically highly important, providing water to over 20 million people in the four countries Climate change will exacerbate the unsustainable utilization of that surround it (Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria). The Lake Lake Chad's freshwater resources. Increased temperatures and Chad fishery is critical for regional livelihoods. water loss through elevated evaporation rates will be particularly profound, given the anticipated 2­4°C temperature increase in Over 90 percent of Lake Chad's water comes from the Chari the region over the next 50 years. In addition, there is evidence River. This river feeds low-salinity water into the lake, such for a potential reduction in rainfall of up to 200 mm. Assuming that the lake has remained fresh despite very high levels of the status quo, these climatic changes will effectively eradicate evaporation. Because the lake is very shallow, only 10 m at its Lake Chad within a few decades, with the collapse of ecosystems deepest point, the marked evapotranspiration losses result in occurring in advance of the actual loss of the lake's status as a dramatic fluctuations in lake levels both seasonally and intra- permanent water body. annually. Over half of the lake's area is made up of islands, reed beds, and mud banks that provide essential habitat to breeding Widespread recognition of the dramatic implications of this waterbirds and endemic fish species. Lake Chad has no outlet, scenario has resulted in the formation of the Lake Chad Basin with most of its water either lost to the atmosphere or feeding Commission and the development of engineering responses into aquifers in the Soro and Bodele depressions. to the problem. A proposal that is gaining momentum is the diversion of water from the Congo River into the Lake Chad In recent years, the level of Lake Chad has dropped dramatically, basin (into the Chari River), requiring a transfer over some 100 well below levels previously recorded. Lake Chad is currently km. As of late 2009, cooperation between the basin commissions about 3 percent of its maximum size during the period 1930 to (Lake Chad Commission and the Congo Basin Commission -- 1973, having shrunk from about 40,000 km2 40 years ago to less CICOS) has advanced, and a feasibility study is under way to than 1,300 km2 today. This is primarily as a result of hydropower explore this option. impoundment and over-abstraction of water from the lake and the main tributary, which have had dramatic effects on both Source: Assessment of the vulnerability of Africa's transboundary wildlife and dependent societies. Several endemic species have waters to climate change, UNEP, at press. disappeared, and there has been conflict between the member to include new water resource infrastructure constructed for keystone, charismatic, economically important, or in the expectation that it will assist in climate adaptation highly visible species. Freshwater conservation of this but without adequate consideration of the impacts of this era emphasized one or two endangered fish species in infrastructure on ecosystems or their ability to adapt to a given basin, for instance, with large-scale spawning climate change. This may apply to both water storage and facilities created to bulk up the numbers of individuals flood defense infrastructure. present. In recent decades, however, the focus of much conservation work has shifted onto maintaining whole Third, many low-carbon energy sources require significant ecosystems or even groups of ecosystems at a "landscape" volumes of water or are likely to have significant negative level. This type of approach has emphasized the restoration impacts on freshwater ecosystems. This applies most clearly of habitat; connectivity between segments of a particular to expansion in global hydropower production, as well as to ecosystem (or between neighboring ecosystems); and increased water demand from biofuels and carbon capture relationships between species, such as the invertebrate and storage (CCS) technologies. prey of an endangered fish. The goal has become to create a healthy, sustainable ecosystem. The shift to landscapes and ecosystems represents a major leap forward toward 2.7 implications For biodiversity effective conservation. conservation However, climate change presents a major challenge Until the 1970s and 1980s, biodiversity conservation to how we think about conservation. Climate is a major prioritized species rather than ecosystems, particularly determinant of the qualities of any given freshwater 25 Flowing Forward ecosystem. Both a species and a landscape approach In effect, climate change creates a moving target for to conservation assume that conservation is essentially managing ecosystems and species. Conservation biologists restoring a species or ecosystem to an earlier, more pristine are now struggling with the process of incorporating state. For conservation biologists historically, the practice methodologies that are forward-looking, are robust to of conservation has been an inherently retrospective future climate uncertainty, and operate effectively across exercise. Conservation's ultimate goals have largely been both landscapes and long time periods. The direction of the unchanging preservation or sustainable, balanced use. practice of conservation itself is extremely uncertain and But these goals may no longer be sufficient. Hydrological is likely to require consideration of conservation objectives function can be restored (e.g., reconnecting segments of a that are shifting and evolving to new circumstances, in river divided by infrastructure), but it may not be possible addition to the restoration of systems to past states. to restore past ecosystems to precisely the way they were before (Matthews and Wickel, 2009; Matthews, Aldous, and Wickel, 2009). 26 3. assessing vulnerability: methodology and summary case studies This chapter outlines the methodological approach to the · Project and infrastructure decision making. The assessment of freshwater ecosystem vulnerability and risk Water Anchor Flagship report also recognizes the to climate change, and provides summaries of a number potential of vulnerability assessments in the design of of case studies that were used to incrementally develop infrastructure and other water resource project lending. this methodology. The need for vulnerability assessments However, its approach to infrastructure vulnerability as a mechanism to support water sector decision making assessments currently does not include ecosystem is increasingly being recognized as a central component vulnerability. The methodologies described here of adaptation to climate change. Recommendations provide an opportunity to incorporate this element on the widespread use of vulnerability assessment are into the analysis. central to the conclusions of the Bank's Water and Climate Change Flagship Report (World Bank, 2009), and the recommendations made in this chapter should be read in 3.1 vulnerability and climate risk conjunction with the discussion in that document. assessment methodologies Assessment of vulnerability to climate change can be The overall approach to vulnerability assessment set out undertaken within three broad contexts in World Bank and here addresses the key issues set out in chapter 2. It has partner planning and operations: been developed based on existing analyses in the literature, in particular the approaches set out in recent World Bank · Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in reviews (World Bank, 2009). the water sector . The emerging use of SEA for water resource policy and planning processes and overall approach to assessment programs represents an important opportunity for the assessment of climate vulnerabilities and appropriate The assessment method set out below is scalable both response strategies. As discussed in chapter 4, the temporally and geographically (and thus can be used for strategic planning of water resources development both national- and project-level planning) and is flexible in and infrastructure will play a key role in enabling application, given the resources available. The same process successful adaptation. In order to strengthen these can be used to identify risks in a matter of days at a small sub- efforts, an SEA that includes a substantive vulnerability basin scale, using expert opinion, or it can form the basis for a and risk assessment is likely to be an important tool. regional investigation based on years of original research. This can be applied in a variety of contexts and is likely to be one of the most important contexts in It is worth making an important distinction between which vulnerability assessment can be undertaken. the concept of "impact assessment" and the concept of "vulnerability assessment." As the discussion in part 1 · National adaptation or water sector policy emphasized, consideration of future impacts of climate formulation, and national or basin water resource change cannot be based simply on downscaled climate planning processes . In these cases, iterative models; instead it requires an assessment of ecosystem vulnerability assessments can identify the most critical sensitivities and a variety of possible futures. While vulnerabilities within the country, basin, or region. The an impact assessment depends on predictions from assessments can help identify adaptation pathways downscaled modeling, a vulnerability assessment adopts a and measures that should be included in national or broader and more cross-sectoral view, without reliance on basin policy and planning. A range of Bank activities the accuracy of these models. provide opportunities for the design and development of adaptation measures, including water sector reform and support packages or as part of broader regional or risk-based approaches national adaptation and development strategies (e.g., NAPAs). Given the considerable uncertainties about the future impacts from climate change, a risk-based approach based on an understanding of system vulnerability and the drivers 27 Flowing Forward of risk holds more promise than does a deterministic top-down and bottom-up assessments approach. Vulnerability assessment and the design of adaptation responses should therefore be modeled on risk The risk assessment process outlined in the Water assessment approaches and methods. A risk-based approach Anchor Flagship report distinguishes between "top to development planning has been strongly highlighted in down," or narrative scenario­driven, and "bottom up," or the 2010 World Development Report, which has emphasized threshold-focused, approaches to assessing risk. Top- the importance of "robust" rather than "optimal" strategies, down approaches attempt to characterize the likelihood based on scenarios and options (World Bank, 2010b). of adverse impacts through the generation of models of future hydroclimatic change. Bottom-up approaches Risk assessment frameworks abound in the literature. Risk- involve investigating the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive based approaches typically involve (1) definition of the capacity of the system of concern. objectives and identification of the components of interest/ concern, (2) establishment of the impact and likelihood In many contexts, predictive, deterministic, and top- of events that could compromise those objectives, (3) down methodologies have dominated thinking on identification of the options that reduce the risk of the adaptation to climate change. These methods involve identified events, and (4) assessment of adaptation options (1) generating a formal eco-hydrological climate model, to determine suitability and timing of intervention. downscaled circulation model, and emissions scenario at the project or planning scale; (2) applying the scenario The World Bank's existing approach to climate change risk to an impact model; and (3) considering appropriate assessment in the water sector builds on a number of risk responses to projected impacts. But as was shown in assessment methodologies (World Bank, 2009) and is briefly chapter 2, high-confidence projections for precipitation, described in box 3.1. evapotranspiration, and runoff at local spatial scales that are box 3.1: world bank framework for risk-based decision making for water investments The World Bank's approach is built on three stages: (1) objective definition, (2) risk assessment, and (3) options identification and evaluation. Adaptation Objectives Options Characterization Risk Assessment Identification & Analysis Assessment Stage 1: Identify problem, objectives, performance criteria, and rules for decision making . 1. Define problem and objectives -- identify system of interest and establish overall objectives; 2. Establish "success" or "performance" criteria and associated thresholds of tolerable risk; and 3. Identify rules for decision making that will be applied to evaluate options. Stage 2: Assess risks . 1. Identify the climate and non-climate variables that could influence potential outcomes, i.e., that the exposure unit is potentially sensitive/vulnerable to; and 2. Identify the alternative future states or circumstances that may occur (both climate and non-climate) and the impact of these on the exposure unit and performance criteria (including the relative importance of climate and non-climate drivers). Stage 3: Identify and evaluate options to manage risk . 1. Identify potential adaptation options to meet success criteria; and 2. Evaluate adaptation options according to degree of uncertainty and established rules of decision making. In all circumstances, look for no regrets, low or limited regrets, and win-win, and particularly so when there is high uncertainty. The options of "do nothing" or "delay decision" are possible. Avoid climate decision errors (over-adaptation, under-adaptation, and associated mal-adaptation). 28 Assessing Vulnerability valid for decades exist for very few regions, and these gaps agricultural demand for water, and unsustainable resource may never be filled. exploitation. In order to overcome these shortcomings, scenario- Vulnerability assessment therefore needs to consider driven assessments can be complemented by bottom- the impacts of both climate and development trends. up assessments that seek to understand the key points Like climate futures, these development futures are also of vulnerability within ecosystems and associated characterized by considerable uncertainty, particularly in management systems. This not only can permit an rapidly changing economies in the developing world and identification of the points of potential concern but also across the longer time horizons relevant to climate change. start to highlight the areas where measures could be Accordingly, an approach built on multiple development focused to increase systemic resilience. Such an approach pathways, with multiple development futures, is more is particularly applicable in the context of ecosystem appropriate than is reliance on a single deterministic vulnerability. A bottom-up analysis of where ecosystems development future. are likely to be most sensitive to changes in climate should therefore be an integral part of vulnerability assessments. scenarios and the emergence development and climate trajectories of water Futures As noted in chapter 2, ecosystem decline will often result Under this approach, a range of climate (physical) and from the interplay of a number of stressors, including development (socioeconomic) scenarios manifest as climate change. The other stressors are typically those a range of future scenarios of water availability and associated with economic development, such as demand. These future water scenarios inform the changes in land use, shifts in demography, improving temporal and spatial scales of water quantity, quality, and socioeconomic conditions leading to increasing urban and timing and provide a bounded set of possibilities that can Figure 3 .1: Representation of the approach to vulnerability assessment Water "Top down" assessment Development Scenarios availability Climate Scenarios of water futures Water quality Risk Response strategy Demand Risk Risk Response strategy Risk "Bottom up" assessment Risk of sensitive systems Bounded Scenerios of Possible Future 29 Flowing Forward form the basis for the identification of risk and, therefore, Top-Down Narrative Scenarios: Exploring "Water Futures" adaptation strategies. The first stage in the development of the risk assessment is detailed vulnerability the development of a series of potential narrative scenarios assessment methodology for future change. These scenarios should not be tightly bounded; that is, they are not scenarios in the sense of the The detailed methodology proposed for freshwater economic development and emissions trajectories used ecosystem vulnerability assessment (figure 3.1) follows by the IPCC, such as the "A1B scenario." Instead, narrative the three stages depicted in the World Bank report. scenarios here refer to qualitative or semiquantitative "stories" of directions for future development, with explorations of the interactions of those futures with stage one: defining scope and objectives climate change. A number of important preparatory steps are necessary The assessment will need to include future hydrological before the risk assessment can be undertaken. Defining scenarios and the impacts of these changes on objectives for a vulnerability assessment is central to environmental flows. Thus, a hydrological component selecting the appropriate geographic and temporal scope for the larger analysis is critical. Where an ecosystem of analysis. Objectives and goals also inform the selection vulnerability assessment is being undertaken as part of of methods and serve as the overall guide and measure by a broader project vulnerability assessment, hydrological which impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities can be assessed. models are already likely to have been developed. Where this is not the case, a useful risk assessment can still be Stage 1 has the following elements: undertaken without the need to develop complex and expensive hydrological models. 1. Overall background description of the basin, aquatic ecosystems, and associated ecosystem services and Hydrological scenarios or narratives should not focus only livelihoods. on changes to annual average precipitation or runoff. Many of the most important changes to freshwater 2. Disaggregation of the overall basin into a number ecosystems are likely to occur as a result of sub-annual or of component units. These different units will be even sub-monthly changes in runoff or as a result of shifts used to assess risks in different parts of the system. in variability, such as a change in the frequency of extreme Disaggregation might be based on tributaries and precipitation events. hydrological units; in other systems, the appropriate division may be based on ecological zones; for An assessment of the impacts of climate change on example, high-altitude headwaters versus mid-altitude water resources needs to consider three different main tributaries versus delta or estuarine areas. dimensions of the interaction between water availability and water demand: 3. Identification of ecosystem objectives or thresholds of concern. This can include an assessment of 1. The current (baseline) situation, with respect to the priority ecosystems or species of concern within the availability and requirements for water, considering basin. Objectives can be established for ecosystem existing and historical hydrological variability, water components; identified species; or ecosystems that demand patterns, and water resources infrastructure support livelihoods, hydro-physical conditions, or development socioeconomic aspects. 2. The likely impacts of future social and economic development on water availability (changing stage two: risk assessment hydrology, etc., and proposed infrastructure) and demands (changing water use patterns, etc.) The risk assessment step comprises a top-down analysis of narrative scenarios and possible futures; a bottom-up 3. The likely implications of possible future climate analysis of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; change on water availability (primarily through and the final risk assessment, which brings these two hydrological change) and demands (as reflected by analyses together. changing demand patterns) 30 Assessing Vulnerability The list of eight eco-hydrological impacts set out in table 2.1 need and the types of data available. A qualitative, can be used as a checklist to assist in the identification of key risk-based approach may be deployed where aspects of water futures. resource availability or time constraints preclude the development of detailed ecological assessments. From the climate and development futures assessments, a 2 x 2 matrix can be developed, into which the water futures A key aspect of risk assessment is to specify the identified are written. Where possible, key aspects of water futures risks as precisely as possible; for example, specific time should be assigned to particular basins or sub-units. An windows or flow levels at which low-flow impacts will lead example of this type of approach is included as table 3.1 for to impacts, or temperature parameters that may trigger the Okavango case study. eutrophic or other negative impacts. The more clearly a risk can be identified, the more it will be possible to design Bottom-Up Assessment of System Resilience monitoring and response strategies to address the risk. The risk assessment process also requires the identification stage three: designing an of ecosystem sensitivities. "Sensitivity" is defined as the adaptation response extent to which a small or moderate change would be likely to have a significant impact on the ecosystem. Assessment Adaptation strategies can be designed to respond to the can be made against the criteria for assessment defined in risk assessment. The details of these strategies will depend stage 1 of the assessment process. on the assessment context and objectives and on the potential opportunities for the development of strategies. The eight key eco-hydrological impacts can again be used to provide a structure for the assessment, with sensitivity to each impact assessed and recorded for each of the basin 3.2 case study summaries sub-units identified in stage 1. A narrative description of some of the key sensitivities can be developed on the basis As part of the methodology used in the development of of this assessment. Where possible, this should define the this report, a number of case studies were undertaken parameters of the sensitivity as precisely as possible. to test the approaches, methodologies, and conclusions that are being proposed. These included the Mekong A valuable mechanism for helping identify key (Siphandone­Stung Treng), Breede (South Africa), and vulnerabilities in the system is to look at where the system Tocantins-Araguaia (Brazil). In addition, an in-depth (or a closely comparable system) already suffers from assessment was undertaken of the Okavango basin in impacts or shocks from, for example, episodic drought, southern Africa. These case study reports have been flood, or pollution events. compiled in a separate volume and are available on file. A summary of the key findings of each of the case studies is Undertaking the Risk Assessment contained in this chapter. These summaries are of necessity brief and are intended to illustrate key impacts and threats; The final component of the risk assessment combines the methodologies to assess intermingled vulnerabilities that top-down and bottom-up assessments to produce a risk balance climate change with development and other assessment of key vulnerabilities. Outputs from the risk conservation pressures; and institutionally appropriate assessment include a ranked list of key risks to the system. climate adaptation options for infrastructure, policy, One useful approach to the assessment and illustration operations, and sustainable resource and biodiversity of key risks is to construct a matrix based on the key eco- management. In the interests of accessibility, not all the hydrological impacts from chapter 2 and the geographical outputs and illustrations for each case study are included in sub-units identified for the risk assessment. Examples of the the summaries below. application of such an approach to the Okavango and the Breede are provided in tables 3.2. and 3.3. A number of key conclusions emerged as common across the case studies that were undertaken. These reinforced The identified ecosystem sensitivities and, specifically, and helped to complement the issues that emerged the sensitive parameters are mapped onto the from the literature review undertaken for the study, and water futures to identify which critical parameter contributed to the development of the recommendations values are exceeded in which water futures. This in chapter 4. step can be more or less quantitative depending on 31 Flowing Forward The case studies show that biodiversity and climate change impacts in isolation but must expand to include a risk and resilience are not uniform across or within wide range of economic, policy, and social contexts. basins; in all cases, certain eco-hydrological components of freshwater systems emerged as In all cases, identified adaptation options for particularly (and often differentially) vulnerable ecosystems required interventions that addressed or with different roles in supporting resilience . For resource management action, core policy, and example, in the Okavango, the Boteti pans were identified institutional issues around water resources as being particularly at risk and in need of special management . Adaptation requires that ecosystems stand attention, whereas the upstream delta was less so. In the at the center of water resources development. Breede, the Papenkuils wetland was likely to be particularly vulnerable to temperature increases and anticipated Vulnerability to water stress proved to be a key flow changes; however, the analysis suggested that there component of vulnerability to climate change . As were certain scenarios under which climate change discussed in chapter 2, increased water stress is far from might diminish the significant and increasing pressures being the only impact of climate shifts on freshwater on the Breede estuary. Similarly, certain areas of basins ecosystems. However, those systems or components of are particularly important in contributing to resilience to systems that currently experience or are at risk from water climate shifts: In the Okavango, for example, the Cuito stress proved to be those assessed as most vulnerable to sub-system is particularly important in maintaining the climate shifts in the case studies. Hence, the Breede system integrity of the system. Spatially identifying points of is likely to be more vulnerable than are the Tocantins- risk and opportunities for resilience is therefore crucial Araguaia and Siphandone­Stung Treng case studies, where in identifying adaptation responses, emphasizing the water stress is significantly less of a threat. Within the importance of strategic assessment, and planning of water Okavango system, the Boteti pans are likely to be most at resources and water infrastructure. risk from climate shifts when compared to the more water- abundant remaining parts of the system. While vulnerability varies across a basin, basins must be managed as whole hydrological networks, even In addition to emerging lessons for climate risk and in transboundary contexts . Risks felt in one place often adaptation, a number of lessons emerged from the arise as a result of shifts in management in another part development of the case study pilots for the application of of the system. For example, maintaining integrity in the risk and vulnerability assessment methodologies. Cuito River provides the necessary base and flood flows to maintain functioning in the Okavango delta, even if the The case studies demonstrated that it is possible Cubango River is more heavily developed. to produce useful results on reasonably tight resources and within a short time frame. Achieving Altered flows and hydrological regimes are key this successfully depended upon creating a team with drivers of vulnerability; they are already shifting . the appropriate range of skills and drawing on the results The impact of air or water temperature shifts per se was of existing analyses. Indeed, the investment of further identified as a less significant immediate risk, although it resources in the case studies would probably not have might prove important in shallower wetland systems. created significantly greater certainty about future outcomes given the inherent uncertainties associated with Negative climate change impacts are typically the estimation of future climate impacts on freshwater. superimposed on existing and emerging development Some aspects of the studies would, nevertheless, have drivers or come from synergies between development benefited from further investment of resources: The and climate change . In the Tocantins-Araguaia and identification of thresholds and vulnerabilities could be Mekong rivers, for instance, dam development pressures made significantly more precise with more investigation are likely to have far greater impacts on biodiversity and analysis; more important, development of detailed than the direct impacts of climate change over the next adaptation options requires an extensive process of analysis 20 years. However, rising air temperatures and more and consultation that was well beyond the scope of these frequent droughts are likely to cause many periodically preliminary case studies. irrigated regions to shift to permanent irrigation as crop evapotranspiration rates quicken, reducing available water The importance of the bottom-up sensitivity resources for already-stressed ecosystems. As a result, assessment became increasingly apparent as the successful climate adaptation cannot focus on climate case studies were developed . The importance of this 32 Assessing Vulnerability sensitivity assessment emerged in two respects. First, more are largely focused on the Okavango delta as a Ramsar site. precise vulnerabilities result in more targeted adaptation The physical, ecological, and institutional characteristics of responses. Second, the uncertainty associated with future the basin lend themselves to sorting the basin into five sub- climate impacts meant that downscaled projections could catchments (Figure 3.3): provide little guidance alone as to the risks to freshwater ecosystems from climate change. In the Okavango · Sub-catchment 1: The Cubango catchment. The case study, for example, different modeling approaches underlying geology is volcanic and Kalahari sands and produced different results as to whether the basin would provides quick-response "flashy" hydrology. This area is less become wetter or drier. ecologically important but has strong economic potential centered on agricultural development and livelihoods The multidisciplinary expert workshop proved to be (subsistence agriculture, fisheries, resource harvesting). extremely useful as a synthesizing device . Identifying risks and adaptation options is technically demanding and · Sub-catchment 2: The Cuito catchment is strongly typically involves the assimilation of significant amounts groundwater-driven and ecologically more important. of complex data. All these case studies used one-day The floodplains are important for rich biodiversity. workshops, which may be challenging for many basins. From the experience developed in these case studies, more · Sub-catchment 3: The Kavango River after the than one day should be set aside for this exercise. confluence of the Cubango and Cuito. This region has strong groundwater influences and critical floodplains. The delta is significant for fisheries. 3.3 the okavango basin in southern aFrica · Sub-catchment 4: The delta system is a Ramsar site with rich biodiversity and social dependencies. description of the basin Floods and sediment load are important to maintain ecological function in elements such as the permanent The Okavango basin straddles four countries within the wetlands, seasonally flooded plains, and grasslands. SADC region: Angola, Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe Upstream agricultural nutrient pollution constitutes a (Figure 3.2). Climatically, the northwestern part of the basin, serious concern. largely within Angola, is wetter, with the more southern parts of the basin within Botswana and Namibia having · Sub-catchment 5: The Boteti River and pans semiarid to arid conditions. Environmental requirements downstream of the delta are largely driven Figure 3 .2: Basin map of the Okavango Figure 3 .3: Subdivision of the Okavango into five sub-catchments (adapted from Pinheiro, Gabaake, and Heyns, 2003). 33 Flowing Forward Table 3 .1: Water futures for the Okavango, based on the development of future water and climate scenarios development Scenarios low Growth High Growth · Higher flood flows in the Cubango and Cuito · Higher flood flows in the Cuito and Cubango · Catchment yields in Cubango and Cuito un-impacted · Reduced dry-season flows through increased PET (balanced off on the Cuito through increased GW · Reduced dry-season flows through increased PET recharge) (balanced off on the Cuito through increased GW recharge) · Increased abstraction, particularly dry-season Wetting abstraction, in the Cubango and Kavango · Little abstraction, centered on dry-season abstraction; limited nutrient input · Increased nutrient input, especially during flood events (less intense) · Adequate flow year-round to support Cubango, Cuito, Kavango, and Okavango delta · Cuito, Kavango, and Okavango delta maintained · Flow into the Boteti from the delta maintained (perhaps · Flow into the Boteti from the delta maintained and increased) and operates almost as a permanent river almost permanently flowing, with periods where the flow is disturbed · Reduced floods in the Cubango and Cuito, most · Significantly reduced floods in the Cuito and significantly in Cubango Cubango Climate Scenarios · Catchment yield within Cubango significantly reduced, · Reduction in yield of Cuito minimal but of even while yield of Cuito only slightly reduced greater significance in the Cubango due to resource development · Reduced dry-season flow in all systems · Reduced dry-season flow in all systems; less · Increased abstraction, focused on dry-season significant in Cuito and Kavango due to groundwater abstraction; limited nutrient input recharge · Pressure on Kavango floodplains -- minimum critical · Increased abstraction, particularly dry-season flow for flooding probably achieved but extent of abstraction, in the Cubango and Kavango, and with flooding undeterrmined adaptation response in the Cuito · Pressure on Okavango delta -- extent of flooding drying · Very little dry-season flow emerging from the reduced, extent of seasonal floodplain reduced, Cubango permanent swamp under low-flow pressure · Increased nutrient input, particularly during intense · Boteti under severe pressure, reduced flow from delta, flood events and reduced local rainfall and recharge; large stretches of the system are dry · Significant pressure on Kavango floodplains -- minimum critical flow for flooding not always achieved, extent of flooding significantly reduced · Significant pressure on Okavango delta -- extent of flooding reduced, extent of seasonal floodplain reduced, permanent swamp under low-flow pressure · Boteti River under severe pressure and dries up with no flow from delta and reduced local rainfall and recharge 34 Assessing Vulnerability by rainfall and local groundwater, with some · Wet" -- corresponding to the wettest conditions " additional release from the delta. This part of predicted by statistical downscaling (i.e., top of the the basin has a high population density, with envelope of change in rainfall and minimum of the heavy reliance on fishing, livestock, hunting, envelope of change in temperature) domestic water supply, and recreation. sensitivity and risk assessment water Futures On the basis of analysis undertaken for this case study, Climate scenarios for the Okavango River basin were the systems within the basin most at risk to the different developed, considering both global circulation models impacts of climate change are described in table 3.2. (GCMs) and statistical downscaling (SD). In general, while the GCMs predict a general decrease in rainfall, SD models The following broad conclusions arise from the assessment predict an increase in rainfall. This divergence illustrates of risk and impact across the various futures: the difficulties of relying on the uncertainties of top-down assessments and projections. On the basis of the models · Owing to its heavy dependence on local rainfall and developed, three climate scenarios for the Okavango River recharge, and to its downstream location, the Boteti basin were derived: and ephemeral pans are significantly at risk of climate change. · Dry" -- corresponding to the driest conditions " predicted by the GCMs (i.e., the bottom of the · everal water futures impact the delta with loss of some S envelope of change in rainfall and top of the envelope species and some abundance, and significant changes of change in temperature) in the extent of the seasonal and permanent swamps. However, in none but the most extreme futures will · Moderate" -- corresponding to the driest conditions " the delta be entirely lost, with only shifting "areas" of predicted by statistical downscaling (i.e., the bottom permanent and seasonal inundation in most futures. of the envelope of change in rainfall and top of the envelope of increase in temperature) Table 3 .2: Key risks in the Okavango system High risk Medium risk Low risk 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . Cubango Cuito Kavango delta Boteti Low-flow impacts on ecosystems Shifts in timing of floods and water pulses Eco-hydrological Impacts Evaporative losses from shallower water bodies Higher and/or more frequent storm flows Shifts in thermal stratification in lakes Saltwater encroachment in coastal and deltaic systems Increased runoff, increasing pollutants Hot or cold-water conditions, DO levels 35 Flowing Forward · ack of development in the Cuito buffers the impacts L · nvestment is required to increase targeted monitoring I of climate-development scenarios on the Kavango and within the basin. This should include climatic, the delta. hydrological, hydro-chemical, and water use variables. For example, nutrients pose a significant threat to the · evelopments in the Cubango largely impact D Okavango delta permanent swamps. Accordingly, Angola, while developments within the Cuito will some monitoring of phosphorus is required at the have serious impacts on the Kavango, delta, and Kavango panhandle. downstream pans. 3.4 the breede basin oF south aFrica adaptation responses description of the basin · he Cuito River is in almost-pristine condition T and should have status in terms of protection, The Breede River is situated in the southwest corner of particularly given its importance in maintaining South Africa (Western Cape province), has a catchment downstream integrity. area of 12,384 km², and is approximately 337 km long. The topography of the Breede River basin is characterized by · f the major basin states, only Namibian water O mountain ranges in the north and west, the wide Breede legislation requires environmental allocations to be River Valley, and the rolling hills of the Overberg. The river's implemented as part of a water allocation process. One source catchment is in the Skurweberg mountain range area where adaptive capacity could be strengthened above Ceres. is in strong policy and legislative support for environmental flows and the harmonization of policy The basin is characterized by two rainfall patterns: In most among the states. of the basin the predominant rain falls in the months of May and August, while a year-round rainfall pattern prevails · ntegration of planning among the sub-basins in I in the far southeast. The orographic influence of the high the Okavango is critical. An Angolan basin strategy mountain ranges introduces a large spatial variability in the for the Cubango and Cuito rivers is currently mean annual precipitation (MAP). In the high mountainous under way and could serve as a useful basis to regions in the southwest, the maximum MAP exceeds demonstrate integration of a basin-wide perspective 3,000 mm, but rainfall is as low 250 mm in the central and into this national planning. Strategic environmental northeastern Breede River basin. The average potential assessments would be a point of engagement for an mean annual evaporation ranges from 1,200 mm in the investment strategy in the basin. south to 1,700 mm in the north of the basin. · KACOM is the obvious champion of a basin-wide O The Breede River and its various tributaries contain sensitive approach to protecting environmental flows in the aquatic ecosystems and support ecologically important face of climate change. Strong support to monitoring wetlands. The Papenkuils wetland in the upper Breede in systems and the utilization and dissemination of particular is significant, as this system contains a variety information on changing flows and environmental of wetland and terrestrial flora that are not found or conditions is required. conserved elsewhere. The wetland is particularly vulnerable due to reduced water availability and retention as a · number of significant water resources development A consequence of local disturbances and activities within the projects are planned for the Okavango River catchments upstream. The Breede River estuary is one of basin. Support to these developments should the most valuable in the country but also one of the most take cognizance of the strategic perspective of threatened, owing to upstream development. The estuary investment location, considering the environmental is the nursery and recruitment zone for an extensive marine and downstream costs implicit in the development. fishery and contains highly sensitive marshes and mudflats. In the context of the importance of the Cuito to the maintenance of the hydrology of the wetland, large Land use is primarily agriculture, with large, intensive impoundments and diversions on the Cuito River irrigation enterprises in the Breede and Riviersonderend should be delayed as long as possible, when compared river valleys. The Breede River basin is part of the larger with development options in the Cubango River basin. Western Cape Water Supply Scheme (WCWSS), which 36 Assessing Vulnerability Figure 3 .4: Basin map of the Breede moves water around the Western Cape to provide for the demand, requires supply-side interventions. Water quality city of Cape Town (CCT) and its surroundings, among concerns may exacerbate flow concerns (low growth), and others. Over 67 percent of allocable water in the basin is institutional responses may alleviate some of the high- for irrigated agriculture, with 11 percent predominantly for demand concerns through alternative sources and water urban use. conservation and demand management. Given anticipated climate change effects in the Breede water Futures River basin, the following overlays can be described on the existing drivers and scenarios. Water futures for the Breede were developed using a combination of development and climate scenarios: Increasing temperature will drive: · igh-growth scenario: Increased demand requires a H · urther increases in water demand from urban and F mixture of demand-side and supply-side interventions agricultural sectors but with high levels of resource management to ensure sustainability. · ncreased evaporation losses from impoundments, I reducing system yield · oderate-growth scenario: Increasing demand, M particularly in the CCT, coupled with moderate to weak · ncreased evapotranspiration in headwater I water management institutions implies need for least- catchments, reducing runoff cost supply-side interventions · ncreased stress on aquatic ecosystems, particularly I · ow-growth scenario: Increasing demand, particularly L those poorly adapted to temperature fluctuations in the CCT, coupled with weak institutions and low ability to pay will drive least-cost supply-side Paradoxically, the mountain catchments and foothill river, interventions; deteriorating water quality exacerbates which will likely see the greatest temperature changes, flow impacts will be least affected, as these systems are already "naturally" exposed to (adapted to) strongly fluctuating Despite disparate development futures for the Breede water temperature. River basin and the Western Cape region, the impacts on the water resources of the Breede River are remarkably similar: Increasing demand, primarily for increased urban 37 Flowing Forward Rainfall drivers: · Demand within the Breede River basin will outstrip supply, driven by the increasing urban demand · ossible reduced rainfall in upper catchment will reduce P from within the Western Cape Water Supply runoff, particularly in the dry summer season. This will System (WCWSS). This infrastructure response is exacerbate temperature and water quality effects. consistent across all development scenarios. Climate change predictions (reduced runoff and increased · ncreased variability and intensity as well as reduced I temperature) exacerbate the supply-demand frequency (bigger storms, less often) will result in dry shortages in the WCWSS, reducing time before the periods punctuated by heavy falls, with resultant heavy next augmentation scheme is required. Regional storm flow runoff and potential destruction of habitat, transfer schemes to respond to short-term supply- particularly where already weakened by riparian or demand issues, in combination with climate change riverbed changes. impacts, will place significant pressure on the already- stressed vulnerable ecosystems (remaining mountain · he potential for increased rainfall, particularly summer T catchments and the Molenaars foothill river). rainfall, in the lower catchment may increase runoff in the lower catchment, particularly during the · Water resource development in the upland catchment current low-flow stress period in summer. This has of the Papenkuils wetland will further reduce flooding significant implications for the estuary, which currently of the wetland, driven by increased demands within suffers from very low summer flows and associated the Breede River basin and the WCWSS. Combined temperature and water quality impacts. with land development on the verges of the wetland and maintenance of levees and berms to short-circuit water through the wetland, reduced flooding of the sensitivity and risk assessment wetland is anticipated, with further terrestrialization and encroachment of alien vegetation. Climate change The following principal risks were identified arising out of effects will likely exacerbate these effects, as they will the water futures, and the vulnerabilities identified for the drive increased demand for supply-side interventions. Breede systems. Temperature changes and water quality changes will Table 3 .3: Key risks in the Breede River Basin High risk Medium risk Low risk 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . Mountain Papenkuils Foothill Estuary Streams Wetland Rivers Low-flow impacts on ecosystems Shifts in timing of floods and water pulses Eco-hydrological Impacts Evaporative losses from shallower water bodies Higher and/or more frequent storm flows Shifts in thermal stratification in lakes Saltwater encroachment in coastal and deltaic systems Increased runoff, increasing pollutants Hot or cold water-conditions, DO levels 38 Assessing Vulnerability likely impact negatively the already-stressed wetland · Extensive national and local monitoring programs vegetation, accelerating the ecological shifts in the and networks that build a baseline of information and habitat. One caveat to this scenario is introduced by monitor responses to changing circumstances the potential for increased intensity of winter floods, which may cross (or break) berms and levees, leading · Innovative non-regulatory mechanisms (economic to increased possibility for occasional flooding of the instruments and awareness creation) that support water wetland. Removal of the levees/berms, restoration use efficiency (conservation) and pollution prevention activities, and management responses introduce the only real opportunities to reverse the degradation trend in the Papenkuils wetland. The Catchment Management Strategy (CMS) is arguably the most important instrument for adaptation planning · Increased demand within the basin and the WCWSS and environmental protection, as it is the only integrated will further reduce low summer flows within the upper strategy at a basin level that considers all the drivers of catchment, and will reduce winter floods required to change within the environment, taking a water perspective. clear the estuary mouth. Land-use changes upstream, The CMS is reviewed every five years, but the strategy takes coupled with return flow from agriculture and urban a 20-year perspective, integrating water management sectors, will increase water quality concerns in the across all water-related sectors and reflecting the broader estuary. These stresses are exacerbated by local development objectives of government and of the basin. impacts such as residential development around the estuary and recreational and commercial exploitation In addition to the national and basin-level interventions, (e.g., fishing). Climate change impacts may relieve a number of project-specific principles can be some of these stresses, as increased summer low described that increase the adaptive capacity of a basin flows may occur through increased local rainfall and management system. runoff. Increased intensity of flood events will assist with maintaining the openness of the estuary mouth. · Select more degraded locations (tributaries) Water quality effects will be reduced through flushing for infrastructure construction to support achieved in winter and through increased local protection elsewhere. In the Breede River basin, summer flows. the Riviersonderend is an important example of this principle -- it is appropriate to allow further degradation of the Riviersonderend in exchange adaptation responses for protection of the upland stream (mountain catchments and foothill rivers in the upper Breede). A number of national policy responses can be identified This approach will achieve both objectives of that will reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems in the reconciling supply and demand and of resource Breede River basin and beyond. These include: protection within the broader basin. · Establishment of a precautionary determination of · Construct infrastructure to enable adaptation by environmental flow standards to ensure that abstraction building flexibility into construction design and licenses are not over-allocated in a drier future operation. The Molenaars diversion is an example of this principle, where the diversion design allows · Ongoing efforts to invest in demand-side solutions to bypassing of the diversion scheme during low flows supply shortages, before infrastructure investments are (summer), during wet years (winter), or under changing undertaken basin conditions (zero diversion). The relatively low cost of this diversion scheme (utilizing existing · The compulsory licensing process that enables infrastructure and the passive nature of the design) adjustment of abstraction licenses under implies that future decisions to bypass the scheme do changing conditions not imply a significant waste of capital investment. · The compulsory revision of the National Water · Build environmental capacity into infrastructure Resources Strategy (and associated local/catchment through, for example, environmental water banking strategies) on a five-year basis, to reflect the changing (additional releases), fish passes, and environmentally conditions and imperatives in the country sensitive operating rules (limited/seasonal diversion). 39 Flowing Forward Figure 3 .5 Basin map of the Tocantins-Araguaia The proposed raising of Theewaterskloof Dam is a the region's growth. Hydropower development has been local example of this principle in action in the Breede concentrated along the Tocantins, with the Araguaia left River basin, where raising of the dam wall will require relatively intact. However, the hydropower potential in significant additional capacity built into the dam to the TARB is enormous, especially if the Araguaia loses enable environmental releases from the system during its protected status. Moreover, biofuel (sugarcane) is a the low-flow summer periods. large and growing industry in the region, with irrigation supplementing water supplies in many parts of the basin, as is cattle ranching. The growth of both industries in the 3.5 the tocantins-araguaia river basin northern, lower reaches of the TARB includes conversion in the greater amazon of Amazon forest to fields or grazing lands, which has a strong effect on both local climate and water demand. description of the basin Rapid, significant barge transport of agricultural and mining commodities is critical to development throughout The Tocantins-Araguaia River basin (TARB) is situated in the TARB, though again infrastructure construction will the north-central portion of Brazil in the greater Amazon create conflicts with hydropower efficiency and irrigation region and spans some 918,800 km², representing 11 demands, at least in some regions. Mining and other heavy percent of Brazil. The Tocantins River is approximately industries, large irrigation projects, and extensive urban 2,400 km long; the Araguaia is the main tributary, at development also have significant regional impacts on 2,000 km. The TARB is shared by six Brazilian states water consumption, flow regime, flood potential, and (Pará, Tocantins, Mato Grosso, Maranhão, Goiás, and sedimentation patterns. Distrito Federal), with 409 municipalities and almost 8 million inhabitants. Institutionally, the region manages Predicting future development is difficult for the TARB, water through both state and federal bodies, often given uncertain trends in international commodities and using new or not fully defined legal instruments that national energy trends. Extensive hydropower development do not reflect climate change, numerous stakeholders, currently looks inevitable in the region, yet realizing or multi-sectoral demands. While many of these new additional capacity presents potentially strong conflicts instruments will provide some protection to natural with irrigated sugarcane and rice in some regions of the resources, their regional application has been slow TARB. Sediment flows are critical to the lower portions of and incomplete throughout much of the TARB. the TARB, but these could also be disrupted by competitive hydropower water usage. Moreover, cattle ranching is less Development pressures in the TARB are complex and profitable than sugarcane growing, so if ethanol demand powerful. Barge transport is increasingly important to increases globally, much pasture could be converted into 40 Assessing Vulnerability irrigated fields, which likely would place additional pressure sensitivity and risk assessment on marginal lands with higher erosion potential. Based on the climate change projections, no specific analysis was made to quantify how the expected water Futures temperature increase and precipitation decrease will affect the overall water supply and demand in the whole TARB. Given the anticipated climate change effects in the TARB, Even assuming a stationary climate, the high economic the following synergies can be described: development foreseen for the region suggests that water demand will increase significantly and rapidly. However, · Further increases in water demand from urban and by 2025 the supply will still be higher than the demand. In agricultural sectors and increased evaporative losses this sense, neither the current studies nor expert opinions from reservoirs will reduce system yield. According considered that water transfers or diversions schemes will to Mendes (2009), the decrease of mean flows be developed as a future adaptation strategy. downstream of Tocantins-Araguaia reservoirs will lower profitability. He simulated the following decreases of Different conclusions appear at smaller scales. According the flows downstream: ­10 percent, ­20 percent, and to local experts, specific regions such as the Formosa ­30 percent, with respective profitability impacts of and Javaés tributaries will present clear water conflicts ­5.42 percent, ­11.64 percent, and ­19.43 percent. due to the expansion of irrigation schemes. Also, northeastern Tocantins state and the center of Goiás state · Increased evapotranspiration in headwater catchments will be affected by agricultural water shortages as year- will reduce runoff. Near-surface air temperatures round irrigation becomes more common, triggering will increase more rapidly in the region due to water conflicts. deforestation, and when combined with shifts in evapotranspiration and precipitation, drying of The Bananal Island floodplain complex is particularly the Amazonian portion of the TARB will accelerate vulnerable to land-use changes in the upper Araguaia (Sampaio et al., 2007). region. Extensive land degradation from cattle ranching magnifies soil erosion and sediment loads. This process · Decreases in mean annual rainfall will limit sugarcane will impact key freshwater habitat and ecological expansion and shift growers from supplementing processes. Additionally, agricultural runoff (fertilizers, natural rainfall to using permanent irrigation during the herbicides, pesticides) will impact freshwater species, dry season in almost all of Tocantins state. The potential particularly during low-flow periods. The Araguaia River competition for water use with other crops, the high is a free-flowing river. If the strong-growth scenario costs of irrigation facilities, and decreased annual predominates, it will probably be maintained as a free- rainfall may indicate that the sugarcane activity may flowing river. Hence, the natural flow regime may not be become economically and environmentally unviable significantly altered, though the sedimentation regime will (Collicchio, 2008). be altered in both scenarios. · In both strong- and moderate-growth scenarios for The drivers of risk are: the TARB, hydro capacity will increase dramatically. In the moderate-growth scenario, the capacity will reach · Altered river flow and sedimentation regimes due to 83 percent of the total. No published study was found the cascade of reservoirs along the Tocantins River related to the vulnerability of the dams and reservoirs to climate change in the TARB. However, Schaeffer et · Over-abstraction of water for irrigation in the upper al. (2008) studied the impacts of the IPCC scenarios on catchments (Araguaia and Tocantins/Paranã) the energy security in Brazil. According to Schaeffer et al. (2008), the TARB will have a roughly 15 percent · Extreme events such as floods and dry seasons, decrease in annual mean runoff by the last third of considering the sheer scale of the TARB and the this century. Such a large decline will impact capacity. climatic variation among different sub-catchments The navigation sector will also be affected by reduced flow volume. · Water quality degradation from nonpoint sources of pollution (urban runoff, river siltation, and agricultural chemicals) 41 Flowing Forward · Intensive soil erosion and degradation in the upper · Develop water supply sources in the lower Tocantins catchments due to unplanned agriculture, livestock, that are unlikely to face saline intrusion from sea-level and mining rise or during severe droughts. · Deforestation of the cerrado and Amazon for agriculture and ranching 3.6 the siphandone­stung treng region oF the mekong basin · Decrease of fisheries' stocks and spreading impacts on freshwater biodiversity due to the large-scale alteration of ecological processes such as flow regime physical description of the basin · Poor governance and institutional arrangements: weak The Siphandone­Stung Treng area is located on the structures at the state level, insufficient articulation main stem of the Mekong River, 50 km upstream and between federal and state governments, and financial downstream of the international border between Lao constraints due to inconsistent investments People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) and Cambodia. Well-known for its biological importance and fish · Social impacts due to large infrastructure development productivity, the region encompasses roughly 21,000 km2 (e.g., large reservoirs displacing indigenous of the Mekong River and supports mostly rural populations communities) on both sides of the border. Within Lao PDR, the Siphandone is home to just over adaptation responses 100,000 people, who live in dense rural settlements spread along the riverbanks and on the islands (Daconto, 2001). · Consider maintenance of the Araguaia and Sonos as Poverty levels within both the Siphandone and Stung free-flowing rivers. Such rivers work as natural corridors Treng areas are high. In Mounlapamok district, where for fish and other species and ensure auto-adaptation the Siphandone area lies, between 40 and 50 percent of ecosystems and species. of households fall below the village-level poverty line (Epprecht et al., 2008). While market exposure and access · Instituting environmental flow plans aimed at are growing, there is very little commercial or industrial maintaining the natural flow regime (and a more production in the Siphandone­Stung Treng area. As a natural sediment load) of the Tocantins, Araguaia, result, individuals and communities within the area depend and major tributaries. This ensures habitat protection heavily on subsistence cultivation and fishing (Try and and spawning areas for fish and other species, fishing Chambers, 2006). sites, and river connectivity. Environmental flow studies are necessary for that region, and capacity for The following ecosystems and habitats were identified implementing these actions must be expanded. as critical and defining ecological aspects of the Siphandone­Stung Treng case study area: · Protect headwater and groundwater recharge areas. These areas have high potential for permanent Sand formations -- Sandbars, sand beaches, and sandy damage as a result of strong development pressures. islands in the Siphandone­Stung Treng area shift according to seasons and flood patterns in the basin and provide · Incorporate measures to adapt to extreme events important habitat for a variety of species (Bezuijen et al., and flexible use patterns in the design of new 2008). In the dry season, the banks are also used by local infrastructure. For instance, although droughts are communities for vegetable cultivation (IUCN, 2008b). relatively uncommon in the region, developing robust drought management plans to prioritize users and Water channels -- Permanently flooded areas in the ecosystem needs during these events will improve Siphandone­Stung Treng area such as the Hou Sahong resilience. These plans may need to include insurance channel are critical for maintaining aquatic habitats and and alternative energy plans to maintain ecosystems as serving as a corridor for fish migration in the dry season the ultimate stakeholders during severe droughts. (Warren et al., 1998). Water channels also provide water for local communities as well as avenues for transportation and sites for recreation. 42 Assessing Vulnerability Deep pools -- Pockets of deep water within the Mekong riverbed provide important habitat and refugia for many migratory species in the basin, including dolphins and a variety of migratory fish, including the Mekong giant catfish. Estimates suggest that roughly 75 percent of fish caught downstream in Tonle Sap depend on migration to deep pools in the case study area for dry-season refuge (Poulson Figure 3 .5 . Basin map of the Mekong. The Siphandone­Stung et al., 2002). Treng region is identified within the red oval. Flooded forest -- Seasonally flooded forests in the Siphandone­Stung Treng area comprise various forest types whose vegetation ranges from small, aquatic herbs to trees over 15 m tall. These forests serve as important habitat and refugia, supporting a wide range of animal species (Baird, 2007; Mollot, 2005). Gallery forest -- Forests found above the high-water mark in the case study area comprise a mixture of mixed evergreen, seasonally deciduous, hardwood, and bamboo and provide critical habitat for many species. Rapids, rock outcrops, and waterfalls -- The flow of water along steep and narrow channels in the Siphandone­ Stung Treng area creates accelerated and turbulent flows. The rapids and waterfalls this creates are critical to the upstream and downstream migration of fish in the basin, particularly during the dry season (Roberts, 1993; Baird et al., 2004). These areas are also important for fish catch and tourism (IUCN, 2008c). water Futures The Greater Mekong subregion is expected to become slightly warmer over the next century, with warm periods extending in duration and covering much wider areas (TKK et al., 2009). While accurate information of the climate change situation at the national or sub-national level is limited in the basin, both Lao PDR and Cambodia are expected to experience a significant increase in mean annual temperature over the next century (MRC, 2009; TKK et al., 2009). Rainfall patterns in the basin are expected to fluctuate in the first half of this century and increase over the latter half due to increases in the intensity of rainfall during the wet season (May­October) (TKK et al., 2009; Hoanh et al., 2004). Uncertainty remains regarding the effects of climate change on dry-season precipitation patterns. Recent analysis by TKK et al. (2009) suggests that dry-season precipitation will increase in northern catchments within the basin and decrease in southern catchments, while Nijssen (2001) and 43 Flowing Forward Hoanh et al. (2004) suggest that, throughout the basin, the expansion of agriculture and settlements in the case driest months will become drier. Chinvanno (2008: 110) also study area is also likely to have a significant impact on the notes the likelihood of a potential seasonal shift, with the ecosystem components. wet season beginning in June instead of May and lasting through November. adaptation responses Anticipated precipitation changes are likely to contribute to variation in runoff and discharge within the Mekong basin The knowledge base regarding the nature and effects and alter the current flow regime and flood pulse system of demographic, economic, and climatic changes in the in the LMB (TKK et al., 2009; Hoanh et al., 2004). Overall, the Mekong River basin is rapidly increasing. Nevertheless, increase in precipitation and runoff is expected to maintain there is still appreciable uncertainty surrounding our or improve annual water availability in various catchments, understanding of the magnitude of anticipated changes; though pockets of dry-season water stress (particularly in the impact of these changes on water resources in the northern Thailand and the Tonle Sap region of Cambodia) basin; and the secondary effects on ecosystems, agriculture, are expected to remain (TKK et al., 2009; Kiem et al., 2008). energy, and human health. Additionally, in both Lao PDR and Cambodia, flooding and droughts are expected to increase in frequency, severity, Given its position in the mainstream of a dynamic and duration (MRC, 2009; Eastham et al., 2008). transboundary river, the Siphandone­Stung Treng area is vulnerable to changes occurring upstream and Recognizing that climatic changes constitute just some of downstream in the Mekong basin. Consequently, successful the multiple changes driving water quantity, quality, and adaptation at the local level will need to be reinforced by timing in the basin, climatic variation in the Mekong River sound resource management at national, multilateral, and basin is expected to affect water resources and ecosystems basin-wide levels. This could include: in numerous ways. Shifts in the onset of the wet season (from May to June) may delay the onset of flood flows · Bridging gaps in communication and coordination. in the basin. Additionally, increasing temperatures in the Despite the interdependence of different government basin are expected to contribute to increased evaporation ministries, sectors, and user groups at various scales, from the basin and a rise in water temperature, particularly existing governance arrangements within Lao PDR and in shallow ponds and wetland areas. Finally, increased Cambodia could be strengthened to facilitate dialogue, intensity of wet-season rainfall is likely to drive bank erosion planning, implementation, and monitoring. and contribute to increased seasonal sediment load. · Accounting for ecosystem services in decision making. The broader integration and valuation of ecosystem sensitivity and risk assessment services into the research and decision-making process will help policy makers engage in strategic planning Analyzing water futures in the Mekong River basin with the capability of taking a more comprehensive view highlighted the relative impact of development and of the costs and benefits over the short and long terms. climatic changes on the Siphandone­Stung Treng area. In doing so, it revealed that the impacts from economic · Infrastructure placement design and operation. development throughout the basin are likely to be far more According to workshop participants, most of the influential in altering ecosystems and livelihoods in the case existing infrastructure in the case study area, including study area, particularly in the short to medium term. roads, houses, and bridges, are well-equipped to deal with the seasonal fluctuations of the dynamic Mekong The high-development scenario includes four major dams River. Particular considerations for the implementation that have been proposed within or near the Siphandone­ of new hydroelectric dam projects in the area include Stung Treng area: the Lat Sua and Don Sahong dams in Lao the siting of the project, the timing and temperature of PDR and the Stung Treng and Sambor dams in Cambodia. releases, and sediment capture. Workshop participants identified several impacts from these proposed dams on ecosystem components within · Investment in natural infrastructure. Protecting the the case study area. Primary projected impacts include mosaic of ecosystems that comprise the Siphandone­ loss of connectivity, altered timing and water quality, and Stung Treng area is critical for decreasing vulnerability inundation of ecosystems within the area. The further and enabling adaptation. 44 4. responding to climate change Many of the most significant measures required to future in ways that will not always be clear in advance. support successful adaptation to climate change will be Inevitably, recognizing and integrating these elements familiar from current best practices in water resources into a decision-making process means adopting a different management (World Bank, 2009). Climate change provides approach to trade-offs. In the words of the most recent a compelling further reason to overcome the barriers to World Development Report, the implementation of these approaches. At the same time, the prospect of climate change provides a number Accepting uncertainty as inherent to the climate of motivations for approaching water management with a change problem and robustness as a decision new focus. criterion implies changing decision-making strategies for long-lived investment and long- This chapter develops recommendations for supporting term planning. It demands rethinking traditional climate adaptation for freshwater ecosystems in two approaches that assume a deterministic model of stages. First, a framework for considering adaptation the world in which the future is predictable. (World responses is set out, based on a risk-based approach Bank, 2010b) to water management. Second, general management objectives are identified that are likely to support Ensuring that freshwater ecosystems have the resilience successful adaptation. These provide overall objectives for to adapt implies the need to accommodate significant water management institutions to pursue in seeking to additional assimilative capacity in ecosystems. The support adaptation. Third, more specific recommendations 2010 World Development report identifies the need for for potential World Bank support to the achievement of "safety margins" to be built into decision making, and these objectives are provided. this consideration applies to ecosystem adaptation and socioeconomic development. For example, basin-wide infrastructure development strategies may need to leave 4.1 a Framework For climate greater accessible refugia for species to respond to a adaptation -- a risk-based approach changing climate, implying the need to ensure that impacts to water management on connectivity from new infrastructure within the basin are minimized. Alternatively, agricultural development Chapter 2 emphasized that climate change impacts on planning may need to proceed on the assumption of freshwater systems will be characterized by high levels of reduced future availability of water resources from a basin, uncertainty, over both short- and long-term time horizons. thereby ensuring that planned development does not Consequently, a risk-based approach to water management compromise future environmental water needs. In each and adaptation is recommended. This requires a revised of these cases, risks from future climate change imply approach both to water infrastructure development and the need to give increased weight to the maintenance water resources decision making, and a risk-based approach of ecosystem functions in the trade-offs inherent in to the development of adaptation measures. development decision making. First, the maintenance of freshwater ecosystems has always Second, a risk-based approach to the design of adaptation implied the need to account for trade-offs, taking account measures requires not a static set of interventions but of the important services offered by healthy ecosystems instead an understanding of the range of potential future in development decision making. However, uncertainty risks and a monitoring and adaptation strategy that is able about future climate trajectories creates new challenges to identify and respond to risks as they materialize. An in ensuring that ecosystems have the resilience and approach based on risk assessment and adaptive response flexibility to respond to change. These challenges center can represent a significant change in approach compared on balancing "traditional" pressures (especially water supply to more deterministic approaches to water resource and demand for multi-sectoral uses of water) with the management. A risk-based approach to adaptation can be recognition that most freshwater systems are already or implemented only when there is an understanding of the are likely in the near future to experience climate change risks to ecosystems. Negative impacts of climate change pressures, and that these pressures will increase in the on ecosystems are likely to occur through the impacts of 45 Flowing Forward particular climatic and hydrological events on particular parts of ecosystems; different ecosystems will be vulnerable box 4.1: declining fisheries of the to differing possible changes in different ways. rift valley lakes: a climate change phenomenon The 2010 World Development Report identifies three broad strategies that can enable robust adaptation under Various studies demonstrate the dramatic effects that uncertainty: shaping strategies, hedging strategies, and changing temperature can have on fish biomass in lake ecosystems and the associated socioeconomic effects of a signposts. These three approaches can help to frame declining fishery. Lake Tanganyika is the world's third-largest adaptation strategies for freshwater ecosystems. freshwater lake, at 19,000 km3, and the second deepest, at almost 1,500 m. It is home to a rich biodiversity of over 500 cichlid and other fish species, many endemic. In addition, shaping strategies: implementation of the lake has a productive pelagic fishery supporting over adaptation measures for identified risks 100,000 fishermen and providing up to 40 percent of protein intake for the catchment's more than 1 million inhabitants. Mitigation measures may be undertaken immediately for The lake has historically supported one of the world's most some risks. This may be an appropriate response under a productive pelagic fisheries, with a recent annual harvest of number of circumstances: between 165,000 and 200,000 metric tons and an equivalent value of several tens of millions of US dollars. As in many lakes worldwide, this once-productive fishery has collapsed · low-regret measures. Many adaptation responses in recent years, with dramatic effects on the lake ecology and have multiple benefits, such as pollution reduction on local livelihoods. This commonly was thought to have efforts or improved water resources management. been the result of overfishing, but evidence published in These types of measures are often grouped together Nature demonstrated a linkage between this collapse and with win-win measures and can be undertaken the changing climate of the Central and East African immediately, even when there is considerable rift valleys. uncertainty. Owing to its great depth and its physical characteristics, the · Climate-justified measures. Some future risks may lake is oligotrophic and permanently thermally stratified be assessed as having a high likelihood. In these cases, with an anoxic hypolimnion that is described as "fossil water." adaptation measures can be initiated immediately. Surface waters are fed with crucial nutrients, predominantly In other cases, adaptation responses will have long phosphorous and silicon, during the cool and windy winter and spring months, when the thermocline is weakest, and implementation lags. This is most characteristic of upwelling of deeper (nutrient-rich) waters occurs in the infrastructure construction, where decisions need to be south. O'Reilly and colleagues (2003) described the effects made now that will be embedded for several decades. of increased surface temperatures and reduced wind activity For example, the design of the capacity of urban storm on this nutrient cycling. They showed that the markedly drains requires an assessment of future climate risks. In reduced enrichment of surface water was attributable to addition to infrastructure construction, many longer- increased stratification and reduced wind activity following term policy reforms can require decades to implement. increased winter surface water temperatures. The reduced For example, changes to water allocation and water nutrient input to the pelagic food chain was a factor in rights systems to allow for greater flexibility typically the collapse of the fishery, together with the heavy fishing require reform processes over many years. pressures. This research demonstrates that the effects of a changing climate are already being experienced in one of the African Rift Valley lakes. hedging strategies: adaptive and Source: O'Reilly, 2003 enabling measures For many risks, immediate implementation of measures will not occur if these preparatory measures are not may not be appropriate because there is too much undertaken. uncertainty about the benefits. However, it may still be sensible to undertake preparatory measures so that the For example, one of the primary adaptation challenges required response can be activated when the level of in freshwater will be the need to respond to increasing uncertainty is reduced or the risks of not implementing variability of precipitation, with potential low-flow impacts the measure become too great. In many cases, adaptation on freshwater ecosystems. Damage to ecosystems may be 46 Responding to Climate Change avoided if water use can be reduced in response to annual thumb" (such as Incorporate more green space in urban or seasonal variations in water availability, or if stored water designs to reduce heat stress) to tables of prescribed can be released to maintain flow levels. In these ways, standards for engineers (such as the UK government's environmental flows can be maintained in the face of a Add a 20 percent sensitivity allowance to daily rainfall, year of below-average precipitation. However, in order for peak river flow volumes, and urban drainage volumes this to happen, there needs to be sufficient flexibility within to account for climate change by 2050) (Greater London the water management system to enable such an adaptive Authority, 2005; Department for Environment, Food, and response. Management rules need to be designed to allow Rural Affairs 2006). Other guidance depends on case water demand to be altered in response to conditions, studies to show practical examples of adaptation within accompanied by the establishment of monitoring a particular sector or to share lessons learned by different programs that can detect changes in time. countries (Pittock, 2008; Hellmuth et al., 2007; European Environment Agency, 2007). Some guidance is delivered as Preparatory and enabling measures therefore typically sets of principles and primers; other guidance is available consist of three steps: via online resources that share practical insights based on local coping strategies (Miller and Yates, 2006; Matthews · Identify potential risks to the ecosystem as clearly and Le Quesne, 2009; UNFCC, 2008). Field- and community- as possible, along with a monitoring protocol and level projects are also regarded as powerful vehicles for indicators that will indicate when action may be demonstrating adaptation in action or for highlighting required. the immediate and longer-term benefits of tackling non- climatic anthropogenic stressors (Hansen and Hiller, 2007). · Develop response rules that set out actions that will be Some guidance sets out general adaptation measures taken when indicators are passed. that can be used to counter specific challenges, such as rising water temperatures or the changing hydrology, · Develop the ability to respond to and implement hydromorphology, and water quality of freshwater bodies. necessary adaptation measures; for example, flexibility of allocation, demand reduction options, flexibility of In constructing the approach here, we build on the dam operating rules. characterization of the key impacts of climate change on ecosystems presented in chapter 2 and the general principles for adaptation in freshwater that have been signposts: monitoring measures developed elsewhere (WWC, IUCN, and CPWC, 2009; GPPN and SIWI, 2009). A key element of a risk-based management approach is to install a strong monitoring and analysis process that is able institutional capacity to identify when and how change is happening. In most cases in developing countries, even the basic hydrological Building strong institutions with the right institutional monitoring networks are very weak or have fallen into framework and administrative and technical capacities disrepair. The monitoring data needs to be analyzed so is a crucial precondition toward adapting to changes that changes can be identified and fed into management in climate (World Bank, 2009). This is equally true when decisions. In addition, a regular strategic review of risks building climate change adaptation into the management needs to be undertaken to allow for adaptation planning to of freshwater ecosystems. One of the crucial barriers to the be updated. achievement of the management objectives outlined in this chapter is the lack of adequate data and information and core technical and administrative capacities in water 4.2 management objectives For resource and environmental management institutions, Freshwater adaptation especially the environmental, ecosystem, and biodiversity components of water management. Many professional bodies and institutions are providing sector-specific and cross-sectoral guidance to assist and Required institutional capacity can be characterized in operationalize adaptation measures. They typically distill terms of three related areas: and translate the latest scientific knowledge into workable strategies for practitioners while also being mindful of · Enabling frameworks and institutions. Successful policy and legal contexts. Guidance ranges from "rules of adaptation, whether for ecosystems or broader social 47 Flowing Forward box 4.2: the ebb and flow of australia's murray-darling basin: state change and environmental flow priorities The Murray-Darling basin in southeastern Australia covers a reinforced by the National Water Commission, which expressed seventh of the continent's landmass. Wetland protected areas concern at lack of security for environmental water during extend across the basin, including 16 Ramsar sites. The low drought and has called for environmental watering protocols levels of rainfall in the current "drought" in southern Australia are that apply under all inflow scenarios (NWC, 2009). unprecedented in the century-long instrumental record, and inflows into the river systems are at an historical low. A number As a result, the Coorong Ramsar site and many other wetlands of agencies now describe the drought as being exacerbated are increasingly desiccated. The Coorong estuary is separated by, or due in part to, climate change and worse-than-historical from Lakes Alexandrina and Albert by a barrage system to droughts (Timbal, 2009; SEACI, 2008; Cai, 2008). In addition, it is prevent upstream seawater intrusion into the lakes. The Coorong likely that the combination of greater evapotranspiration with and Lakes Alexandrina and Albert have undergone significant higher temperatures and inflow-intercepting land uses has changes in ecological character over the past decade. Lake dramatically reduced runoff. The case provides a vivid example Alexandrina is now 0.5 m below sea level behind the barrages of the types of rapid state shift that can be manifest in freshwater and would require around two years of average river flows to refill. climate change (Cai, 2008). This drying out has produced some nasty surprises. High salinity The environmental flow provisions on the rivers of the basin levels were expected in the lakes, but an invasion of marine have failed to protect ecosystems from the reduced runoff. Since bristle worms wasn't, and the worms have colonized the shells 2006, two key states -- Victoria and NSW -- have suspended of eastern long-necked tortoises with massive encrustations, environmental flow rules. Even without this suspension, CSIRO leading eventually to their deaths. Exposed wetland sediments (the government research organization) says, "Current surface high in sulfates are oxidizing, producing sulfuric acid. Around water­sharing arrangements in the MDB would generally 3,000 hectares of the lakes' shorelines are affected, and as the protect consumptive water users from much of the anticipated damage spreads up the Murray River valley, up to a quarter impact of climate change but offer little protection to riverine of other wetlands are impacted. At Bottle Bend Lagoon near environments." (CSIRO 2008) In other words, the environment Mildura, for example, the water now has a pH of 1.6. would suffer a disproportionate reduction as water allocations are reduced with climate-induced scarcity. This concern is Source: Jamie Pittock, Australian National University objectives, will require that a series of key enabling and triggered. This is likely to require a range of institutions be in place. For example, the existence monitoring efforts, including basic meteorological and of an effective, enforceable, and adaptive water hydrological monitoring, water quality monitoring, allocation mechanism is an essential prerequisite and monitoring of ecosystems. For example, the need for effective water resources management under for improved water quality monitoring was identified changing climate conditions, including the as one of the key recommendations in the Okavango maintenance of environmental flow conditions. case study undertaken for this report. A range of such enabling institutions exists, including effective short- and long-term water and Unfortunately, institutional capacity across all these infrastructure planning and permitting mechanisms areas is currently a significant challenge in many water and frameworks. resources and environmental management contexts, and this is likely to represent a significant barrier to effective · Organizational capacity. Effective water management adaptation in many contexts. requires the existence of effective and functioning water management institutions to discharge a range of functions, including planning, permitting, and maintaining environmental Flows enforcement. The highest priority climate adaptation measures for · Monitoring and assessment. Central to successful freshwater ecosystems are the protection and maintenance efforts to adapt to climate change will be the ability of environmental flows, in particular in regulated rivers to identify and analyze changes as they are occurring, or systems subject to significant water abstraction. This so that response mechanisms can be identified requires policies and implementation measures to protect 48 Responding to Climate Change and restore flows now and to protect an environmental reducing existing pressures and protecting flow regime in the future under changing patterns of resilient ecosystems runoff. Both are significant policy and legal challenges. Impacts from climate change and human-induced non- It is increasingly recognized that implementation is an climate pressures will affect both individual species and iterative process requiring action at a number of levels: ecosystems. The species that will be in the strongest at a policy level, recognizing environmental needs in position to adapt to climate change are likely to be those the mechanisms controlling the management of water that occur in healthy freshwater ecosystems, as those abstraction, the operation of existing infrastructure, and the systems will retain the greatest assimilative capacity. construction of any new infrastructure; and in catchment and infrastructure management plans. Reducing pressures that cause ecosystem decline is, therefore, a critical part of building the resilience of In order for ecosystems to be protected, environmental flow ecosystems in the face of climate change. Measures to requirements may need to be granted a high priority in the protect ecosystems include reduction of water demand; allocation decisions and recognized as a prior allocation increase in water efficiency measures; restoring more natural that needs to be enforceable. Where environmental flow river flows so that freshwater ecosystems are not vulnerable requirements are not recognized as a prior allocation, reduced river flows as a result of climate change will often box 4.3: reducing the risks of lead to consumptive water receiving preferential treatment eutrophication and environmental water being disadvantaged, with the potential for attendant environmental damage. This applies Increased water temperature due to low flows, higher air to both water resource management and infrastructure temperatures, or both increases the risks of eutrophication operations. Finally, environmental water allocation needs to of freshwater systems. This risk is most pronounced in be enshrined in law as a water right that is enforceable, as is systems already suffering from excessive or increased the case in the South African water policy. nutrient levels. Central to the development of increased resiliency in these systems is a reduction in pollution levels, The recognition and protection of environmental flows so that these systems are in as strong a position as possible under conditions of increased climate variability pose a to withstand increasing air and water temperatures. particular challenge. They require a water rights system and dam operating rules that retain sufficient flexibility The region around Wuhan on the middle Yangtze was formerly rich in wetlands and lakes, but these have been to adjust water use in both the short and long terms, in surrounded by urban and industrial development over response to changing runoff, with guarantees in place to recent decades as human populations have grown and the protect environmental needs as availability changes. An local economy has shifted. Pork production is extremely adaptive management system that protects environmental important in the region (an average farm has more than flows under future climate variability therefore needs to 10,000 pigs on the shore of the river or a lake), and intensive be designed into the heart of water rights, allocations, and aquaculture is also important to the region. Given the infrastructure design and operating rules. Recognition amount of poorly treated or untreated pig and human waste of the potential for future variability also needs to be and fish food entering these lakes, algal blooms, which were considered in transboundary agreements. once rare events in summer, have now begun to occur even in the cold winters of the Wuhan region. These problems Early support for environmental flows through policy will become far more severe if both air temperature and droughts become more variable. implementation is important. The establishment of environmental flow allocations will be cheaper and WWF's China Program Office has been working closely politically more tractable if the authority is established with local pork and fish farmers and government officials before significant climate change occurs. Establishing and to create pilot projects that reduce nutrient inputs, and to implementing these policies at a later stage is likely to use water infrastructure to "flush" these wetlands and lakes require expensive and politically contested reallocation with main stem river water, reducing their propensity to processes under conditions of increasing conflict and develop low-water concentrated solutions. This process resource pressure. This adds to the urgency of introducing effectively reproduces the natural interconnection between environmental flows as a key element of water sector the wetlands and river that existed before the construction reform in those countries where such processes are not of hard infrastructure. yet in place. 49 Flowing Forward to small, climate-induced changes in runoff; and reduction The potential areas for support identified here are in other pressures such as pollution, invasive species, and consistent with many of the conclusions of the Bank's overfishing. mid-cycle Implementation Progress Report for the Water Resources Sector Strategy (World Bank, 2010c). Key The assimilative capacity of freshwater ecosystems will common recommendations include an emphasis on be further increased where a diversity of healthy habitats integrated and strategic planning in the context of climate can be maintained within a river system. This increases variability and change, and an increased focus on water the likelihood that the system will be able to withstand quality and monitoring. different types of impact. In reality, this is likely to mean maintaining a combination of healthy tributaries across the Many of the core interventions needed for ecosystem basin, along with some parts of the main stem of the river. adaptation build on the significant developments in The maintenance of connectivity between different healthy sustainable water resource management that have sub-systems within a basin, so that they can act as refugia emerged in recent years. Many of these methodologies in response to climate shocks and permit re-colonization of have received important conceptual and practical support the basin following shocks, is likely to play an important role from the Bank, including support for environmental flows in contributing to adaptation. and strategic environment assessment. Nevertheless, significant opportunities remain for the further development and trialing of many of the methodologies 4.3 options For integration into underlying the adaptation options outlined in this paper, world bank activities an endeavor to which the Bank could contribute. A number of related areas in particular would benefit from further The achievement of these management objectives in any research and development: given water resources management context ultimately depends upon the commitment, resources, policies, and · Despite significant progress in recent years, there laws of national, transboundary, and local political and remains further work to be done in developing management authorities. Successful adaptation will require practical environmental flow assessment that the necessary interventions be locally led, supported, methodologies, in particular for large rivers, and reliable and implemented. Given that the primary responsibility for approaches that can be undertaken with limited adaptation lies in national and transboundary governments resources. Development of these methodologies will and authorities, there are significant opportunities for the assist in identifying key thresholds of concern for future Bank to further the achievement of these objectives where water stress in major basins. there is appropriate support for these approaches from national and transboundary authorities. Opportunities exist · As highlighted in both the theoretical discussion in both project lending and the Bank's portfolio of sectoral and the case studies in this report, maintenance of adjustment lending and technical support. function in key parts of freshwater systems is likely to be crucial in supporting resilience to both climate The World Bank report (World Bank, 2009) identifies and development pressures. Early development of potential areas for the Bank to provide support to climate methodologies has taken place to identify these adaptation in the water sector, including policy and areas of freshwater systems, but significant further institutional intervention, technology, water management, development is required, in particular to develop infrastructure, monitoring/information systems, and methodologies that are practical to apply and can capacity building/awareness. The recommendations set develop solutions and recommendations that can out below cover many of these areas and are divided into inform basin planning efforts in a meaningful way. the principal areas of World Bank activities: project lending; policy, program, and technical assistance; and research · The development of vulnerability and risk assessments, and development of knowledge. Opportunities also exist and the incorporation of these into strategic outside the water sector, particularly by supporting national assessments and basin planning approaches, remain and transboundary environmental programs. The potential in their infancy. Significant further development work activities could form important component elements of remains to be done.. any future cross-sectoral adaptation support. 50 Responding to Climate Change projects · Develop support materials, such as case studies, training material, technical notes, and analyses of There are significant opportunities for incorporation of effectiveness, for Bank staff and counterparts in ecosystem adaptation measures into the Bank's extensive borrowing countries. portfolio of project-level lending, most significantly in Bank lending for water infrastructure but also in the context of some sectoral projects that impact freshwater resources sustainable infrastructure such as irrigation expansion. planning and design The design, siting, and operation of water infrastructure will environmental Flows be central to determining the extent to which freshwater ecosystems are or are not able to adapt to future climate The provision of environmental flows should continue to shifts. The uncertainty inherent in future climate scenarios be incorporated as a core issue in the World Bank's water has implications for both new infrastructure as well as the infrastructure project lending. Thorough recommendations rehabilitation and re-operation of existing infrastructure. on opportunities for the Bank to support improved Supporting adaptation in freshwater ecosystems implies protection of environmental flows across projects, plans, that new infrastructure should not unacceptably impact the and policies have been set in a recent publication, adaptive capacity and resilience of freshwater ecosystems. Environmental Flows in Water Resources Policies, Plans, Negative impacts may result both from changes to and Projects (Hirji and Davis, 2009a). The project-level environmental flow regimes and from reductions in opportunities identified in that report include the following: connectivity and refugia within freshwater systems as a result of new infrastructure. · Disseminate existing guidance materials concerning the use of environmental flow Concerns over climate change and the impacts on assessments (EFAs) in program and project environmental flows reinforce the importance of including settings, and conduct training for Bank and environmental flow needs in infrastructure development borrower country staff on application of EFAs. projects supported by the Bank. In order to maintain healthy ecosystems downstream of water resources · Develop an environmental assessment update (an infrastructure such as dams and weirs, environmental flow operational guidance note) on EFAs. assessments should be integrated into environmental assessments undertaken for infrastructure projects · Identify settings, approaches, and methods for the supported by the Bank. Similarly, assessments and measures select application of EFAs in the preparation and to minimize impacts on connectivity and downstream implementation of project-level feasibility studies and habitats will assist in helping to ensure that the adaptive as part of the planning and supervisory process. capacity of freshwater ecosystems is not impacted significantly by infrastructure development projects. Thus, · Prepare a technical note that defines a methodology the effects of infrastructure on the transport of sediment for addressing downstream social impacts of water and the maintenance of physical habitat on floodplains and resources infrastructure projects. in estuaries and deltas should be accounted for in these environmental assessments. All projects on international · Test the application of EFAs to include infrastructure waterways will be subject to OP7.50 and BP7.50, which other than dams that can affect river flows, as well require that early notification be given to riparian countries as other activities such as investments in large-scale of any proposed project. land-use change and watershed management and their associated effects on downstream flows and Both of these considerations may imply affording a ecosystem services. stronger weight to ecosystems in the trade-offs inherent in infrastructure decision making. In some cases, infrastructure · Undertake appropriate pilot projects to include all may appear to underperform with current climate affected downstream ecosystems, including groundwater conditions because design parameters suggest that future systems, lakes, estuaries, and coastal regions. water availability will be quite different from the present. 51 Flowing Forward There are opportunities to account for the potential · Operating conditions: In order to protect impacts of climate on three places in infrastructure environmental flows under conditions of future planning: variability, dam operating rules need to retain flexibility, with specific provisions for the protection · Impact assessment: Impact assessment provides of environmental flow needs as water availability the core mechanism by which a full consideration changes. The Bank could support the inclusion of the impacts of infrastructure on future of these flexible operating rules as a deliberate adaptability and resilience can be considered. attempt to test and demonstrate options for This can include an assessment of the impacts managing infrastructure. of climate change on environmental flows; an assessment of potential future shifts in ecosystem A growing body of literature and experience, some and species distribution; and an assessment of of it supported by the Bank, underpins many of these the potential impacts of new infrastructure on the approaches. Krchnak, Richter, and Thomas (2009) provide capacity of ecosystems to adapt to these changes, more specific recommendations on the incorporation including the siting of that infrastructure. of environmental flows into hydropower infrastructure planning, design, and operations. Ledec and Quintero · Design: Design of infrastructure can be crucial (2003) emphasized the importance of selecting the location in dictating whether, and the extent to which, of dams to minimize their environmental impacts. These infrastructure is capable of facilitating adaptation to more detailed recommendations have the opportunity to future climate shifts. In practical terms, this is likely provide guidance on how to assist in building resilience to to mean that infrastructure should be designed climate shifts into ecosystems downstream of dams. to be built and operated with more flexibility in order to encompass a number of differential future In many cases it may be too late to protect aquatic climate states. Technological advances in dam design ecosystems through environmental assessment and are central to this emerging concept of "flexible design when infrastructure projects are being built. The infrastructure." These approaches can apply both important decisions have already been made by that to new infrastructure and to the rehabilitation of stage, including the siting of the infrastructure (Ledec existing infrastructure. Some of the characteristics and Quintero 2003). Moreover, the ability of freshwater of infrastructure design that can contribute to the ecosystems to adapt to climate change is improved where achievement of these objectives include: infrastructure projects are designed and operated at a basin and/or on a system-wide scale, particularly if operations ° Dam design and outlets with sufficient capacity assessments include multiple sectors across the basin. This to permit a range of environmental flow releases can provide opportunities for whole-system operations that are able to meet environmental and economic ° Multi-level offtakes to control temperature and needs under future hydrological variability. Where the chemical pollution and to permit releases under infrastructure on a river system is operated together in an a range of different conditions adaptive manner, there is significantly greater flexibility than if individual infrastructure is operated independently. ° Fish passages Strategic basin-level planning of infrastructure is therefore likely to be important in determining the ° Sediment outlets or bypass facilities extent to which infrastructure is able to contribute to or hinder adaptation of freshwater ecosystems. Consideration should also be given to the design of redundancy in infrastructure to accommodate future Projects and programs to re-operate infrastructure can hydrological variability. The inclusion of capacity also play an important role in supporting adaptation. to permit storage for future environmental flow This can include alterations to infrastructure design, releases provides an important opportunity for new facilities, and operating rules at the time of re-operation infrastructure to play a positive role in supporting to ensure that they provide maximum support to adaptation. the adaptive capacity of ecosystems and that they contain mechanisms to allow for flexible operations in the future in response to shifting hydrology. 52 Responding to Climate Change strategic environmental assessment support means that it is well-placed to support national and project planning governments in meeting these objectives. The use of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in water resources planning provides important opportunities support for development of for promoting adaptation objectives. First, SEA provides institutional capacity the opportunity for groups of infrastructure projects to be designed and operated in an integrated and flexible The Bank is well-placed to continue its program of support manner to achieve both ecosystem and socioeconomic to client governments in building their institutional objectives under a variety of futures. Second, SEA provides capacity through its lending for water resource reform and the opportunity to identify early in program design those institutional development. This has the potential to facilitate parts of freshwater systems that are most vulnerable to adaptation in each of the three areas of capacity identified climate change or are most significant in supporting above and is likely to leverage social, environmental, and resilience of systems to future change. This can allow for economic benefits simultaneously. dam siting to consider and potentially avoid these areas. Third, SEA provides the vehicle by which vulnerability and The ability to undertake monitoring and assessment is a risk assessment methodologies can be incorporated into specific part of institutional capacity that will be crucial project design and planning. There exist opportunities in providing water resource management institutions for the Bank to continue to promote the use of SEA and with the information to adapt to climate variability, both related assessment approaches in the context of project for ecosystems and for human societies. The Bank has development processes. the opportunity to support monitoring and assessment programs that develop: To support increased use of vulnerability assessment, the Climate and Water Flagship report (World Bank, · An understanding of risks to freshwater ecosystems 2009) recommends that risk assessment be undertaken and of preemptive indicators for infrastructure projects and their various component parts. These recommendations focus on a climate change · Monitoring programs to identify changing vulnerability assessment for new infrastructure and its environmental conditions services. This focus could be extended to include an assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems · Analysis to interpret data and provide management and their services to the combined effects of climate information to water resource managers change and the proposed project. Put another way, the assessment could be broadened to consider whether the · Rules and systems with the capacity to respond to proposed project will increase or decrease the resilience of variability and change the associated freshwater ecosystems. The methodology described in chapter 3 provides one approach that could be used for these vulnerability assessments. support for environmental Flows in policy and water resource planning policy, program, and technical assistance Hirji and Davis (2009a) recommend that the Bank support the inclusion of environmental flows in policies and plans World Bank program and policy lending and technical (especially water resources plans at the basin level). Their assistance provide further opportunities to advance the key recommendations include the following: key management objectives identified in this report. Opportunities within the water sector include support · Use CASs and CWRASs to promote Bank assistance for policy reforms at the national level, and support for with basin or catchment planning and water policy institutional improvement, capacity building, and water reform so that the benefits of environmental water planning at the basin level. Opportunities also exist outside allocations for poverty alleviation and the achievement the water sector, in particular where the Bank provides of the Millennium Development Goals are integrated support for national and transboundary environmental into country assistance. and adaptation capacity and policy programs. The Bank's considerable portfolio of program and policy 53 Flowing Forward · Incorporate environmental water needs into Bank policy and planning will be crucial in helping aquatic SEAs such as country environmental assessments and systems adapt to climate change. As with the more sectoral environmental assessments. general development of institutional capacity, this is likely to yield multiple important benefits for ecosystems and · Test the use of EFAs in a small sample of sectoral socioeconomic objectives. SEA that includes considerations adjustment lending operations, including where of climate change provides an important mechanism for the sectoral changes will lead to large-scale land- doing this. use conversion. The World Bank has recently re-affirmed the importance · Promote the harmonization of sectoral policies with of SEA as a powerful tool for adaptation to climate change the concept of environmental flows in developing in water resource policy making (Evans, 2009). This view countries, and improve the understanding emphasized the ability of SEA to assess climate-induced within sectoral institutions about the importance risks in water resources institutions (e.g. river basin of considering the impact of their policies on organizations) and in river basin planning to strengthen downstream communities. the capacity of institutions to respond to any climate change and to utilize participatory approaches to improve · Develop support materials for Bank staff on the decision making. inclusion of environmental flows into basin and catchment planning and into water resources policy and legislative reforms. support for water resource protection programs · Draw lessons from developed countries that have experience with incorporating environmental flows in Support for river, lake, and wetlands restoration and catchment planning. protection programs as part of lake basin management, watershed management, and wetlands conservation projects as well as dam and water system re-operations support for basin planning and strategic funded by the World Bank and the GEF has the opportunity environmental planning of water resources to continue to provide low-regrets responses that yield multiple benefits. These projects would reduce pressures on Robust planning mechanisms that integrate long-term freshwater ecosystems while developing their capacity to environmental considerations will be core elements of adapt to climate change. Water systems re-operation offers enabling adaptation. Support for strong basin planning win-win benefits that can both improve the performance mechanisms and the integration of strategic environmental of existing systems and enhance environmental and social planning into national and transboundary water resource benefits, especially to downstream communities. 54 glossary Adaptation: Via initiatives and measures, the reduction developments that may or may not be realized and are of the vulnerability of natural and human systems against therefore subject to substantial uncertainty. (IPCC WG1) actual or expected climate change effects. (IPCC WG1) Climate refugia: Areas that harbored species during past Bioclimatic envelope modeling: Combines information periods of changes in climate that could serve the same about suitable "climate space" and dispersal capability purpose in present and future climate change. (based on species traits) to predict the ecological consequences of different emissions scenarios. Climate resilience: The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining the same Biodiversity: A measure of the variation of life forms basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for within a given ecosystem, biome, or the entire planet. self-organization, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change. (IPCC WG2) Biomass: The mass of living biological organisms in an ecosystem or other geologically defined region at a given Climate variability: Variations in the mean state and other time. statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal Biome: A large ecological community classified according scales beyond that of individual weather events. Variability to the predominant species of plants, animals, and climatic may be due to natural internal processes (internal conditions. variability) within the climate system or to variations in natural or anthropogenic external forcing (external Climate change: A change of climate that is attributed variability). (IPCC WG1) directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in Cloud forest: Moist, high-altitude forest characterized by addition to natural climate variability observed over dense understory growth; an abundance of ferns, mosses, comparable time periods. (UNFCC) orchids, and other plants on the trunks and branches of the trees; and a high incidence of low-level cloud cover. Climate model: A numerical representation of the climate system, based on the physical, chemical, and biological Connectivity: A widely used term in conservation properties of its components their interactions, and literature that in a freshwater context refers to the tendency feedback processes that accounts for all or some of its for human infrastructure to fragment and disconnect known properties. The climate system can be represented habitats, thereby restricting the ability of species to move. by models of varying complexity; that is, for any one The barriers may be within the water column or through component or combination of components, a spectrum some portion of the continuum of habitats between the or hierarchy of models can be identified, differing in such headwaters of a river and its estuary, or between the river aspects as the number of spatial dimensions; the extent channel and floodplain. to which physical, chemical, or biological processes are explicitly represented; or the level at which empirical diadromous: Type of fish that uses both freshwater and parametrizations are involved. (IPCC WG1) marine habitats during its life cycle. Climate projection: A projection of the response of the dieback: A condition in woody plants in which peripheral climate system to emission or concentration scenarios parts are killed. of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate Ecological niche: The function an organism serves within models. Climate projections are distinguished from climate an ecosystem. predictions in order to emphasize that climate projections depend upon the emission/concentration/radiative forcing Ecosystem services: Benefits that people obtain from scenario used, which is based on assumptions concerning, ecosystems. These include provisioning services such as for example, future socioeconomic and technological food, water, timber, and fiber; regulating services that affect 55 Flowing Forward climate, floods, disease, wastes, and water quality; cultural Headwaters: The place from which a river or stream services that provide recreational, aesthetic, and spiritual originates. benefits; and supporting services such as soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient cycling. Hydrograph: Chart that displays the change of a hydrologic variable over time. Ecosystem: A system of living organisms interacting with each other and their physical environment. The boundaries Hydropattern: The mean pattern of water level fluctuation of what could be called an ecosystem are somewhat in a body of either flowing or still water; also a generic term arbitrary, depending on the focus of interest or study. Thus, that encompasses both flow regime and hydroperiod. the extent of an ecosystem may range from very small spatial scales to, ultimately, the entire Earth. Hydroperiod: The mean pattern of water level fluctuation in a body of standing water such as a lake or wetland. Ecotone: A transitional zone between two communities that contains characteristic species from each. Kyoto Protocol: United Nations treaty that establishes a global cap-and-trade system for reducing greenhouse gas Emissions scenario: A plausible representation of the emissions. future development of emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g., greenhouse gases, New water: Largely derived from liquid precipitation -- aerosols), based on a coherent and internally consistent set rain or frozen precipitation that melts very soon after falling. of assumptions about driving forces (such as demographic and socioeconomic development, technological change) Old water: Comes from reservoirs or "towers" of water that and their key relationships. (IPCC WG1) retain that water for long periods of time. Endemism: The ecological state of being unique to a Oliogotrophic: The condition of being nutrient-deficient geographic area or continent. or nutrient-limited. Environmental flow: The amount of water needed in a River basin: A portion of land drained by rivers and river, wetland, or coastal zone to maintain the ecosystem tributaries. and benefits to human communities. Runoff: Water that is not absorbed into the ground but Eutrophic: The condition of being rich in nutrients. instead flows across the land and eventually runs into streams and rivers. Eutrophication: A syndrome of ecosystemic responses to human activities that fertilize water bodies with nitrogen Species richness: The number of species in a community, and phosphorus, often leading to changes in animal and ecosystem, or another geographically defined area. plant populations and degradation of water and habitat quality. SRES: The storylines and associated population, GDP, and emissions scenarios associated with the Special Report on Evapotranspiration: The transport of water into the Emissions Scenarios and the resulting climate change and atmosphere from surfaces, including soil, vegetation, and sea-level rise scenarios. Four families of socioeconomic bodies of water. scenarios (A1, A2, B1, and B2) represent different world futures in two distinct dimensions: a focus on economic Flow: The rate of water discharged from a source; versus environmental concerns, and global versus regional expressed in volume with respect to time. development patterns. (IPCC WG2) Groundwater: The supply of freshwater found beneath Thermal stratification: The layering of a lake or body the Earth's surface (usually in aquifers). of water into distinct layers of different density caused by temperature differences. Habitat fragmentation: The process by which isolated patches of habitat are created through land clearing, Tidal zone: An area of land exposed to the air at low tide deforestation, or infrastructure development. and submerged at high tide. 56 Glossary Tropical archipelago: A cluster of tropical islands. Water quantity: The water volume of a given ecosystem, which is controlled through the balance of inflows Vulnerability: The extent to which a natural or social (precipitation, runoff, groundwater seepage) and outflows system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate (water abstractions, evapotranspiration, natural outflows). change. (Schneider et al., 2001) Water scarcity: Occurs when the demand for water is Water cycle: The continuous exchange of water between greater than the supply. the atmosphere and the areas on, above, and below the surfaces of the earth. Water timing (water seasonality): The expected or average variation in water quantity over some period Water quality: Refers to how appropriate a particular of time. ecosystem's water is for some use, whether biological or economical. 57 Flowing Forward acronyms A1B: A specific IPCC-defined emissions scenario lao PdR: The People's Democratic Republic of Laos AAA: Analytical and advisory activities lMB: Lower Mekong basin CAS: Country Assistance Strategy MRC: Mekong River Commission CCSP: Climate Change Science Program (US) NAPA: National Adaptation Programs of Action CICOS: Congo-Oubangui-Sangha International OKACOM: Permanent Okavango Water Commission Commission pH: A chemical measure on a 14-point scale of CSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial relative acidity (below 7) or alkalinity (above 7); Research Organization (Australia) 7 is neutral CWRAS: Country water resources assistance strategy Sd: Statistical downscaling ENV: Environment Department (World Bank) SEA: Strategic environmental assessment ETW: Energy, Transport, and Water Department SIWI: Stockholm International Water Institute ETWWA: Energy, Transport, and Water Department Water Anchor (World Bank) SRES: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios FAR: Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, TARB: Tocantins-Araguaia River basin published in 2007 TKK: Helsinki University of Technology GCMs: Global circulation models or, alternatively, global climate models UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change GEF: Global Environmental Facility WBG: World Bank Group GTZ: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (Germany) WCWSS: Western Cape Water Supply Scheme HNB: Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal WG1, WG2: Working Groups 1 and 2 of the IPCC University assessment report series; WG1 focuses on the physical science behind anthropogenic IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change, and WG2 focuses on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation IRBM: Integrated River Basin Management WRAS: Watershed Restoration Action Strategy IUCN: International Union for the Conservation of Nature WWF: World Wildlife Fund IWRM: Integrated Water Resources Management 58 bibliography Araujo, M. 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