d i s c u s s i o n pa p e r n u m B e r 1 7 decemBer 2010 d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c l i m at e c h a n g e d i s c u s s i o n pa p e r s 1 58903 d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Vietnam d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R n U m B E R 1 2 n o V E m B E R 2 0 1 0 E c o n o m i c s o f A d A p t A t i o n t o c l i m A t E c h A n g E The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Vietnam Pamela McElwee (Arizona state University) With contributions from: Center for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies (cREs), Vietnam national University, hanoi (nghiem phuong tuyen, le thi Van hue, Vu thi dieu huong) Dragon Institute, can tho University (nguyen Van Be, le Quang tri, nguyen hieu trung, le Anh tuan, le canh dung) Challenge to Change, UK (le Quang duat, dang thu phuong, nguyen tri dung, graham Adutt) Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. The use and citation of this paper should take this into account. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank. Copies are available from the Environment Department of the World Bank by calling 202-473-3641. © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, U.S.A. Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved. November 2010 This paper is based upon work that has been commissioned by the World Bank as part of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study. The results reported in the paper are preliminary and subject to revision. The analysis, results, and views expressed in the paper are those of the authors alone and do not represent the position of the World Bank or any of its member countries. 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Cover photo © iStockphoto.com/Anka Kaczmarzyk. iii Table of ConTenTs AcRonyms And ABBREViAtions ix AcKnoWlEdgmEnts xi ExEcUtiVE sUmmARy xiii 1. intRodUction And oVERViEW 1 Summary of EACC Project and the Social Component 2 Study Rationale and Approach 2 Conceptual Framework and Key Areas of Inquiry 3 Asset and Livelihood Systems 3 Vulnerability and Climate Change 3 Adaptive Capacity and Sociospatial Approaches to Adaptation 3 Policy and Institutional Framework for Climate Resilience 5 2. sociAl dimEnsions of climAtE chAngE in ViEtnAm 6 Expected Physical Impacts of Climate Change in Vietnam 6 Temperature Vulnerability 8 Storm and Typhoon Vulnerability 9 Flood vulnerability 11 Drought Vulnerability 12 Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise 13 Overview of Social Vulnerability in Vietnam 14 Poverty 16 Climate-Sensitive Resource Dependency 17 Ethnic Minorities 19 Women and Children 21 Migration 22 Urban Households 23 Education 24 iv t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Illness, Health, and Sanitation 25 Indicators of Adaptive Capacity 25 Combined Indicators Used for Identification of Vulnerable Zones 27 National Planning for Climate Change: NAPA and other Strategies 27 3. REsEARch mEthodology 32 Research Strategy and Questions 32 Phase 1. Development of a vulnerability overview and typologies for Vietnam 32 Phase 2. Policy review on adaptation 32 Phase 3. Localized vulnerability assessments through local fieldwork 33 Phase 4. Participatory visioning workshops for scenario development 33 Site Selection and Sampling 33 Background to Sites 34 Methods: Tools Employed 37 Approach to Data Analysis 38 Interactions with other EACC Sector Study Teams and Bank Staff 39 Limitations of the Study 40 4. fiEldWoRK REsUlts 41 Overview and Introduction to Areas of Investigation 41 Existing Livelihood Systems in the Sites 41 Household Asset Bases 45 Resource Access and Land Tenure 48 Indicators of Vulnerability 51 Cross-Cutting Vulnerable Groups 54 Experience with Past Climate Variability and Hazards 56 Costs of Losses from Climate Hazards 61 Adaptation Options and Practices 63 Autonomous Adaptation Practices and Household Decision-making 63 Community Adaptive Actions 69 Self-Assessment of Community Adaptive Capacity 70 Institutional Actions and Interactions 72 Role of Formal and Informal Institutions 72 Planned Adaptation Investments and Policy Path Dependence 74 Future Pathways for Adaptation and Development 76 Key Conclusions from Fieldwork 79 Vulnerabilities 79 Adaptation Options 80 5. pARticipAtoRy scEnARio dEVElopmEnt (psd) WoRKshop REsUlts 83 PSD Workshops: Design Overview 83 Range of Stakeholders 85 Overview of Results from Local and National Workshops 86 Identified Impacts and Vulnerabilities to Climate Change 86 Development Tradeoffs and Choices 86 Adaptation Options: Key Sectoral Themes 88 d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s v Adaptation Pathways: Key Preference Criteria, Sequencing, Leveraging, and Tradeoffs among Options 90 Relative Prevalence of "Hard" versus "Soft" Adaptation Options 92 Policy Preconditions and Institutional Base 93 Congruence with National Plans Including NAPAs 94 Conclusions from Workshop Track 95 6. synthEsis And discUssion 96 Vulnerability Concerns 96 Most Immediately Vulnerable Groups 96 Emerging Drivers of Vulnerability 97 Links Between Extreme Events and Long-Term Climate Change 98 Adaptive Capacities 99 Adaptation Options and Future Pathways 99 Local and National Discourse on Climate and Hazards: Inputs to Decision Support Systems 101 Multisectoral Analysis and Programming 102 Scale: Leveraging National and Subnational Policies and Investments for Pro-Poor Adaptation 103 7. conclUsions And REcommEndAtions 105 Summary of Findings 105 Impacts 105 Vulnerability 105 Adaptation Options 105 Policy 106 Responding to Direct and Indirect Impacts of Climate Change 106 Social Risk Management: Asset Development and Social Protection 106 Policy Design and Implementation 107 8. BiBliogRAphy 109 Further Resources 109 REfEREncEs 112 AppEndicEs 122 Appendix 1. Maps of Field Sites 122 Appendix 2. No. of Households interviewed with Survey 125 Appendix 3. No. of Focus Group Discussions Held 125 Appendix 4. Household Questionnaire 126 Appendix 5. Sample PSD Workshop Agenda 137 vi t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m TablES 1. Examples of processes that Affect Vulnerability 4 2. damages from natural disasters in Vietnam, 1953­2009 7 3. top ten climate disasters in Vietnam 8 4. projected changes in Annual mean temperature (°c) Relative to the 1980­99 period, medium emission scenario (B2) 9 5. changes in Annual Rainfall (%) Relative to 1980­99 period, medium emission scenario (B2) 12 6. projected sea level Rise (cm) Relative to 1980­99 period 13 7. top 10 provinces of mekong delta, by percent land area inundated by 1 m slR 14 8. incidence of poverty by Region (% of total hh who are classified as poor) 17 9. dependency on different income streams by Region 19 10. Regional distribution of minority populations 19 11. statistics on female status by Region 22 12. literacy and Education Rates, 2001 24 13. household Access to Water 2005, in % of households who get most of their water from different sources 25 14. comparison of Vulnerable Regions by indicators of Exposure and sensitivity 28 15. proposed Areas, sectors and communities Vulnerable to climate change in Vietnam in the national target programme 30 16. comparison of sites for field Research 42 17. Average sources of livelihood in Kon tum, per household 42 18. Average sources of livelihood in Quang nam, per household 43 19. class differences in Quang nam livelihoods and Assets 44 20. Average sources of livelihood in ha giang, per household 45 21. Average sources of livelihood in Bac lieu, per household 45 22. sources of livelihood in can tho, per household 46 23. types of Assets in Kon tum 46 24. the Value of housing in minh An commune 46 25. type of housing in thai An and tan trinh commune 47 26. household Assets in Bac lieu 47 27. living conditions of households in can tho 48 28. land type and ownership per capita by commune in Kon tum, 2009 49 29. land type and ownership per capita by commune in Quang nam, 2009 49 30. land owned by households in ha giang 50 31. land Use types and Value in Bac lie 51 32. land owned by households in can tho 51 d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s vii 33. Wealth Ranking criteria in dien Binh commune 52 34. Risks, Vulnerability, and Adaptation measures in Binh dien hamlet of Bac lieu 53 35. main Risks for Wage-labor-dependent households in An lac ward 53 36. Vulnerability to flood damage in the Red River delta, 2009 54 37. daily Activities of a typical fisherwoman 55 38. daily Activities of a Women-headed household in Bai huong Village, Quang nam 56 39. households in ha giang Experiencing cc-induced Events during the last 5 years 57 40. Extreme Events in An thang Residential Quarter's history 58 41. Weather change in the last 10 years perceived by local people in Bac lieu 59 42. Vulnerabilities and Extreme Weather in Bac lieu 59 43. Weather change in the last 10 years perceived by local people in An lac ward 60 44. Risks to traders in can tho city from climate Events 60 45. summary of hazards and seasonality across the field sites 61 46. household damage from climate hazards in ha giang 62 47. income losses from typhoon Ketsana in Kon tum 62 48. losses caused by 2009 floods in Quang nam 63 49. Adaptive options and costs for different climate hazards in Kon tum 64 50. Adaptive strategies to climate change in Quang nam 65 51. hh plans in Quang nam if future Brings more frequent storms and floods 66 52. Adaptation options taken by households in ha giang 67 53. Adaptation measures by Bac lieu Villages 68 54. Adaptation measures in can tho 69 55. future adaptation possibilities for Bac lieu residents 78 56. list of psd Workshops held in Vietnam, 2010 84 57. types of participants in psd Workshops 85 58. prioritized Adaptations options and their characteristics for the mekong delta group at the second national Workshop 89 59. overview of types of prioritized Adaptation options Across all Regions from psd Workshops 94 FIguRES 1. geographic distribution of primary climate Exposure hazards in Vietnam 9 2. precipitation and frequency of storms in southeast Asia, 1956­2006 in start of monsoon season (sept). 10 3. flood Boundary in the mekong River delta, 1980s and 2030s (simulated) 13 4. salinity Boundary in mekong River delta in 2000 and projected for 1m slR 15 5. impacted Areas of Vietnam from a 1m slR 16 viii t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m 6. poverty map of Vietnam indicating poverty incidence to district level 18 7. distribution of Ethnic minorities in Vietnam 20 8. map of Vietnam's Regions indicating sites of local Research 34 9. Example of community Risk map created in Quang nam 37 10. group meeting in Kon tum field site 38 11. traditional Wooden house in hoi An 43 12. Vulnerability map developed by local people in An thang 52 13. percentage of hhs Experiencing flooding in Quang nam's 2009 floods 58 14. damages from climate Events 59 15. crop distribution Adapted to climate change on mountain slopes (Quan Ba district) 67 16. capacity Assessment in ha giang 71 17. capacity Assessment in Kon tum 71 18. capacity assessment in Quang nam 72 19. capacity Assessment in Bac lieu 72 20. small-scale irrigation Upgrade project in ha giang 76 21. organization of the psd Workshops 84 22. participant in the second national Workshop resenting group ideas in the plenary 88 23. Example of pathways identified in group work in second national Workshop 93 boxES 1. Regional Vulnerabilities to climate change 29 2. Restrictions on Resource Access means increased Vulnerability in the short term 50 3. the impact of Water stress in ha giang 53 4. identified climate impacts from psd Workshop groups 86 5. identified Vulnerable groups in the psd Workshops 87 6. prioritized Adaptation Actions across psd Workshops 90 7. Adaptation pathways proposed by psd Workshop participants 91 ix aCronyms and abbreviaTions ADB Asian Development Bank ARDC Asian Disaster Reduction Center CBRDM Community-Based Disaster Risk Management CCSFC Central Committee for Storm and Flood Control CH Central Highlands CtC Challenge to Change CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters CRES Center for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, Vietnam National University DANIDA Danish International Development Agency DARD Department of Agriculture and Rural Development DFID Department for International Development (UK) DONRE Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies DPI Department for Planning and Investment DRAGON Delta Research and Global Observation Network EACC Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change EM-DAT Emergency events database FHH Female-headed household GDP Gross domestic product GoV Government of Vietnam GSO General Statistical Office HCMC Ho Chi Minh City HEPR Hunger alleviation and poverty reduction HH Household IMHEN International Meteorology and Hydrology Centre ICARD Information Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IUCN International Union for the Conservation of Nature MAGICC Model for the assessment of greenhouse-gas induced climate change MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MD Mekong Delta MoLISA Ministry of Labor, Invalids, and Social Affairs MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment x t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m MOST Ministry of Science and Technology MPA Marine protected area MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment MRC Mekong River Commission NAPA National Adaptation Plan of Action NCC North central coast NGO Non governmental organization NTP National Target Program NE Northeast NW Northwest OFDA Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs PSD Participatory scenario development RRD Red River Delta SCC South Central Coast SCENGEN Regional climate scenario generator SE Southeast SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SFPT Storm and Flood Prevention Team SLR Sea level rise START System for analysis, research, and training UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNDP United Nations Development Program UNEP United Nations Environment Program VHLSS Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey VND Vietnam Dong Note: Unless otherwise noted, all dollars are U.S. dollars. xi aCKnoWledGmenTs Natural Resources and Environmental Studies (CRES), Vietnam National University (Nghiem Phuong Tuyen, Le Thi Van Hue, Vu Thi Dieu Huong); Dragon The social component of the Economics of Adaptation Institute of Can Tho University (Nguyen Van Be, Le to Climate Change (EACC) study was developed Quang Tri, Nguyen Hieu Trung, Le Anh Tuan, Le through the joint efforts of the World Bank Social Canh Dung); and Challenge to Change UK (Le Quang Development (SDV) and Environment Departments Duat, Dang Thu Phuong, Nguyen Tri Dung, Graham (ENV) and the LCR, AFR, EAP, and SAR regions of Adutt). Support in methodology and workshop design the World Bank; ESSA Technologies Ltd and the and for training of trainers for the participatory scenario International Institute for Sustainable Development development (PSD) workshops was provided by Livia (IISD), Canada; and research institutions in Bolivia, Bizikova (IISD) and Anne Kuriakose (SDV). A sepa- Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, and rate report is available summarizing this PSD work, Vietnam. The study was undertaken by a core team led along with a training of trainers manual at www.world- by Robin Mearns and comprising Anne Kuriakose, bank.org/eacc. Carina Bachofen, Nilufar Ahmad, and Minna Kononen (all SDV). An overall synthesis report of all six country We could not have completed this work without the reports has been prepared and is available at www. continuous logistical support provided by Hawanty worldbank.org/eacc. The study was designed and imple- Page (ENV), Grace Aguilar (ENV), Mustafa mented in close collaboration with the team leader for Pajazetovic, and Carmen Martinel (both SDV). We the overall EACC study (Sergio Margulis), and Ana gratefully acknowledge editorial services provided by Bucher, Laurent Cretegny, Urvashi Narain, Kiran Robert Livernash, and production management Pandey, Robert Schneider (all ENV), and sector provided by Danielle Christophe (SDV) and Robert consultants. Reinecke. The Vietnam country study for the social component The Vietnam country study has benefited greatly from was led by Robin Mearns and Anne Kuriakose (SDV), peer review comments and other feedback from World in collaboration with the EACC country team leader Bank staff, including Douglas Graham and Steven Benoit Laplante and country office sector liaisons Jaffee, and from external peer reviewers, including Koos Douglas Graham and Le Anh Tuan (both EASVS). Neefjes, Richard Klein, and Maarten van Aalst. The research team and report preparation was led by Pamela McElwee (Arizona State University), who coor- Any remaining errors and omissions are entirely those dinated field inputs from teams from the Centre for of the country study team. xiii exeCuTive summary supplemented with detailed assessments of who within geographically vulnerable regions are the most socially and physically vulnerable. The project made assessments Vietnam is likely to be one of the most significantly of adaptive capacity, deficits, and maladaptation based impacted nations in the world from climate change, due on the past experience of communities with variable to its very long coastline, high dependence on agricul- climates. From this information, participatory scenarios ture, and relatively low levels of development in rural were developed to help guide future adaptation, and to areas. The forecasted climate impacts to 2100 will likely provide cost estimates of these future pathways. The be an increase in rainfall in wet seasons and decrease in aim of the study was to produce data, analysis, and dry of around 10 percent or more, increased intensity advice for the overall EACC study on where the social and frequency of storms and floods, and a likely sea assessment can help clarify questions of vulnerability, level rise of at least 1 meter. Different regions in adaptation, and economic costs. Vietnam are likely to have unique climate impacts, making a single national policy for adaptation difficult. Work took place in late 2009 to early 2010, and was designed based on concepts that come out of the In additional to increased climatic impacts, Vietnam has sustainable livelihoods analysis and environmental enti- also in recent years been undergoing national trends tlements literature, particularly social vulnerability, resil- that may foretell increased vulnerability to these climate ience and adaptive capacity. Field research took place in changes, including extensive losses of mangroves to four regions (Northern Mountains, Central Coast, shrimp farming for global export; declines in the diver- Central Highlands, and Mekong Delta). Both national sity of crops harvested in many agricultural areas; and local participatory scenario development workshops household livelihoods that are becoming less diverse; were also held in Hanoi and in the regions where the commons that have been privatized; and social safety fieldwork took place. nets that have eroded, leaving households with more individual responsibilities. Current development trajec- Key outputs from the study include: tories are likely to clash with the realities of the changes likely from global climate change. Identification of key socioeconomic and biophysical zones of vulnerability to climate change, and typologies The social component of the Economics of Adaptation of livelihood profiles of areas and communities that are to Climate Change (EACC) study was aimed at identi- climate vulnerable. The focus of local field research was fying social vulnerability and adaptive capacity in partic- to draw a more detailed picture of the types of people ularly climate-impacted geographic regions of Vietnam who are likely to be most vulnerable to future climate and among particularly vulnerable peoples. Localized change, and how adaptation practices engaged in during vulnerability is important to understand, as regional past climate events might shed light on future adapta- downscaling of long-term climate forecasts needs to be tion choices and pathways, with a particular emphasis xiv t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m on how social vulnerability might be reduced and future disaster risk reduction--such as activities in forecasting, adaptive capacity built up. The analysis concluded that weather monitoring--and managing climate risk, such the Mekong Delta region has high exposure and as activities to climate-proof physical infrastructure. moderate sensitivity; Central Highlands, moderate Long-term adaptation actions that address the drivers exposure and high sensitivity; Northern Mountains, low of vulnerability --such as adaptation options that exposure and high sensitivity; Central Coast, high expo- reduce poverty and increase household resilience--or sure and moderate sensitivity; Red River Delta, moder- that integrate climate change into development plan- ate exposure and low sensitivity; and Southeast Region, ning were not yet seen. The most striking finding about low exposure and low sensitivity. adaptation options in the fieldsites was how different the strategies were, indicating that one-size-fits-all Assessment of the policy and institutional framework adaptation will not work for Vietnam. Different for adaptation at the national, regional, and local levels. communities among the different regions will have Vietnam adopted in December 2008 a National Target different ideas about how best to match their develop- Program for Climate Change (NTP), but the document ment objectives to the realities of climate change has little to say about how adaptation will take place impacts on these pathways. This includes the need for and who will be the most vulnerable populations. autonomous and planned adaptations, hard and soft Currently, government plans for vulnerability and adap- adaptation, and community and individual adaptation. tation assessment in the NTP tend to be focused on sector-wide and quantitative vulnerability assessment Participatory scenarios of adaptation pathways that needs for the whole country, and on solutions that the might be chosen in the future. Workshops on participa- government can implement through policy or financial tory scenario development (PSD) were conducted to planning, such as "hard" adaptation measures (sea dykes, identify and categorize adaptation pathways suitable for reinforced infrastructure, more durable buildings). Little different livelihood groups. Participants in the work- attention has been paid to social vulnerability or "soft" shops included members from vulnerable livelihood adaptation measures, such as increasing institutional groups; they worked together to identify social costs and capacity or the role of local action and social capital in benefits of adaptation activities. Different scenarios rest- building resilience. ing on different visions and assumptions were played out to let communities and officials have a chance to assess Local assessment of existing and potential adaptation the range of imagined futures that different communi- options and practices. Multiple types of adaptation ties envision, as well as a chance to cost out different actions (social, institutional, physical, technological, approaches and make difficult choices about financial investment, regulatory, market) and by multiple actors and social investments and outcomes. Overall, many (different levels of government from village to national, adaptation options--either seen in fieldsite or proposed international actors, local communities and community- in workshops--were highly cost-effective and of moder- based organizations, individuals, and the private sector) ate expense. These results can help policy makers make were assessed. Most adaptation options seen in the field better, more inclusive choices about the range of adapta- sites primarily are aimed at response capacity and tion responses to be considered in the future. 1 1. inTroduCTion and overvieW In additional to increased climatic impacts, Vietnam has in recent years been undergoing national trends that may foretell increased vulnerability to these changes. Vietnam has made great economic progress in recent These include extensive losses of mangroves, particu- years, growing on average 8 percent a year, along with larly in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, due to pres- making gains in reducing poverty, from nearly 60 sure from shrimp farming for global export (Le Thi Van percent of the population in 1993 to 16 percent in 2006 Hue 2006; Luttrell 2001). Loss of these mangroves (VDR 2008). However, these developments are tenuous signals an increased vulnerability to tidal surges, hurri- and are likely to be undermined by the effects of climate canes, and increased coastal salinity. There has been a change. Vietnam is likely to be one of the most vulnera- general decline in the diversity of crops harvested in ble nations in the world, due to its very long coastline, many agricultural areas due to single-crop patterns dependence on agriculture (more than 70 percent of the encouraged for export agriculture and a loss of tradi- population is based in rural areas), relatively low levels tional flood-resistant rice varieties to hybrid and HYV of development in rural areas, and location of the largest seeds (Le Hai Duong et al. 2007). An increase in clog- urban center--Ho Chi Minh City--in a low-lying ging of irrigation canals due to water hyacinth infesta- coastal zone. Vietnam has been identified as one of the tion has been reported in the Red River Delta, top 15 countries in the world already vulnerable to exacerbated by runoff from overuse of chemical fertiliz- natural hazards like drought and storms in terms of ers, causing major problems for flooding and drainage number of people and scale of exposure (Dilley et al. (CRES unpublished data 2009). Household livelihoods 2005); predicted temperature increases will exacerbate are becoming less diverse in some regions due to a loss this condition to levels previously not experienced. of supplementary income from commons that have Vietnam has already begun to feel the effects: the aver- been privatized, such as income from crabs, clams, age surface temperature has risen 0.7°C since 1950; the worms in coastal flats, and medicines, foods and timber typhoon and flood seasons are longer than they used to in forested areas, particularly for women (Le Thi Van be; droughts in areas previously not vulnerable to aridity Hue 2006; McElwee 2009). And the social safety net have been noted, as have increased incidences of heavy that was provided during the cooperative era has eroded, rainfall and flooding; and storms are tracking into new leaving households with more individual responsibilities coastal areas (Carew-Reid 2008; Ho Long Phi 2008). for schools and health fees, and less likely to contribute The forecasted climate impacts to 2100 will be an to public collective activities like dyke maintenance increase in rainfall in wet seasons and a decrease in dry (Adger 1999a, b). seasons of around 10 percent or more, increased inten- sity and frequency of storms and floods, and a likely sea While the government of Vietnam is increasingly level rise of at least 1 meter (GOV 2008). These future recognizing the threats facing the country from climate scenarios indicate Vietnam will have tens of millions of change, there have been limited research programs people who will be impacted. focused on identifying social vulnerability and 2 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m addressing social aspects of adaptation in particular. vulnerabilities and past adaptations, based on the expe- Vietnam adopted in December 2008 a National Target rience of communities with past variable climate events Program for Climate Change (NTP), but the docu- and trends, and was designed to contribute to the cost ment has little detail about how adaptation will take analysis and completion of the national assessment of place and who will be the most vulnerable populations adaptation by assessing future adaptation ability. In this (GOV 2008). Currently, government plans for vulnera- we have been looking at institutional design, participa- bility and adaptation assessment in the NTP tend to be tory processes, system flexibility, and social learning. focused on sector-wide and quantitative vulnerability From this information, participatory scenarios can be assessment needs for the whole country, and on solu- developed to help guide future adaptation and to tions that the government can implement through provide cost estimates of these future pathways. By policy or financial planning. The main adaptation carefully identifying the social conditions that contrib- measures mentioned in the NTP are "hard" adaptation ute to climate vulnerability--such as ethnicity, gender, measures (sea dykes, reinforced infrastructure, more economic class, occupation, and asset holdings--the durable buildings) with some other measures, like social study is aimed at helping the overall EACC resettlement, storm warning systems, and mangrove effort determine the cost-effectiveness of various adap- planting. Little attention has been paid to social vulner- tation strategies and their effects on the variety of ability or "soft" adaptation measures like increasing at-risk communities across a range of physical institutional capacity or the role of local action and landscapes. social capital in building resilience and adaptive capacity. s Tu d y r aTi o n a l e a n d a P Pr o a Ch s ummary of ea CC ProjeCT and Th e The main research objectives of the Vietnam EACC s oC ial Com Ponen T social component study were: The World Bank's ongoing Economics of Adaptation to (1) To identify key socioeconomic and biophysical Climate Change (EACC) study in Vietnam is currently zones in Vietnam and develop a typology and live- developing cost estimates for adaptation responses based lihood profile of areas and communities that are on climate simulations of future impacts combined with climate vulnerable. This can be done through sectoral analysis of agriculture, water, fisheries, and reviewing the existing data on poverty, vulnerability, forests, among others. The ongoing EACC study has and climate change in Vietnam, and by speaking four primary components: with experts in the area. (2) To assess the policy and institutional framework for · Climate projections and assessment of exposure, cli- adaptation--at the national, regional, and local mate sensitivity, and potential impact through use levels--through interactions with policy makers and of forecasted climate models other stakeholders. · Assessment of adaptive capacity, adaptation deficit, (3) To classify different types of local social vulnerabil- and maladaptation through study of past climate ity to climate change through targeted fieldwork in adaptation selected vulnerable areas of the country from which · Estimation of the costs of future adaptations that livelihood typologies are developed. will be necessary (4) To work with local affected communities, policy · National assessment of adaptation to climate change makers, scientists, and other interested stakeholders (EACC Concept Note and Study Plan 2008). to develop participatory scenarios of adaptation pathways that might be chosen in the future. The social component to the EACC analysis in (5) To produce data, analysis, and advice for the overall Vietnam was modeled on similar vulnerability and EACC study on where the social assessment can adaptation analysis undertaken in the other EACC help clarify questions of vulnerability, adaptation, countries to date (Kuriakose et al. 2009). The social and economic costs. study has particularly focused on the assessment of d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 3 Con C ePT ual frame W orK and Ke y An extensive literature on social vulnerability, particu- a reas of inquiry larly coming from the hazards literature in geography and anthropology, has related how access to resources The EACC-Social study, like other social assessments are distributed within and among communities, shaped carried out under the EACC umbrella across the globe, by such factors as "poverty and inequality, marginaliza- focuses on several key concepts: livelihoods, vulnerabil- tion, food entitlements, access to insurance, and housing ity, and adaptive capacity. quality" (Adger et al. 2004). Research in this area primarily focuses on "vulnerability mapping" to identify asset and livelihood systems those (individuals, groups of people, communities, and regions) who are more susceptible to changes in liveli- Many studies in recent years have focused on the idea of hoods as a result of specific physical or climate hazards. "sustainable livelihoods" as a useful framework in which to Many researchers have tried to develop typologies of contextualize people's relationship with their environment social vulnerability that are "hazard specific"-- such as (Scoones 1998; Leach et al. 1999; Pretty and Ward 2001). whether or not a household is situated on a coastal area Livelihood simply defined refers to the way in which or in a river floodplain--as well as more generic factors people make a living, taking into the consideration the that often relate to general vulnerability, such as wealth many factors that contribute to shape their choices and status and levels of inequality, access to resources (finan- alternatives. The sustainable livelihoods approach was the cial, natural, and otherwise), health and labor, and social first one to focus on the multiple types of capital that status vis-à-vis others. There is an increasing trend in encompassed development. These aspects included the literature to use indexes of vulnerability scaled with economic capital (the assets of households); human capital a set of specific indicators (Downing et al. 2001). Some (the skills, education, labor ability, health and other types of these are data driven, while some are more theory of physical capacity); and social capital (relationships, driven (Vincent 2007). networks, affiliations, communities, and other ties upon which people draw in order to sustain their livelihoods) A major challenge in vulnerability studies is that defining (Leach et al. 1999). In other words, rather than simply things that researchers believe will impact vulnerability looking at production and income/expenditures data, live- and adaptive capacity are often hard to catch with single lihood studies have attempted to go beyond the economic quantitative measures; an example would be a topic like or material basis of households by looking at a variety of governance. A further challenge is capturing the dynamic other factors that influence household well-being, chief nature of vulnerability, as quantitative approaches are among them being dynamic social relations. From these more likely to present a static snapshot of vulnerability at studies emerge the need to understand the way in which one point in time (Eakin and Luers 2006). A review by institutions, social interactions, and economic opportuni- Adger et al. (2004) has identified a number of local and ties shape, and are shaped by, livelihood systems. supra-local processes that can contribute to overall vulnerability (Table 1), but which are often difficult to vulnerability and Climate Change capture in single quantitative indicators. According to a widely used definition, "Vulnerability is adaptive Capacity and sociospatial approaches to the degree to which a system, subsystem, or system adaptation component is likely to experience harm due to exposure to a hazard, either a perturbation or stress/ stressor" Adaptive capacity is defined by Adger et. al. (2004) as (Turner et al. 2003). The IPCC has adopted this defini- "the ability or capacity of a system to modify or change tion and has emphasized vulnerability is a function of its characteristics or behavior so as to cope better with exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (IPCC 2007). existing or anticipated external stresses." This capacity The most vulnerable people, therefore, are those who can be variously defined as the capacity to absorb stress experience the most exposure to climate events, are the (either through resistance or adaptation), the capacity to most sensitive, and who have the weakest capacity to manage and maintain basic functions during such stress, respond. and the capacity to bounce back after stress. Addressing 4 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 1. examPles of ProCesses ThaT affeCT vulnerabiliTy Local-scale processes Processes at higher scales increasing labor migration population growth declining labor availability increasing/decreasing provision of services by the state loss of customary rights and change to "modern" tenure systems increasing penetration of global markets/ Reorientation of most production away from local circulation and reciprocity Reduction of mobility in terms of grazing livestock Relative declining value of rural products, both agricultural and nonagricultural increasing need for cash changing legislation and tenure systems increasing price of inputs declining biodiversity and forests/ expansion of agriculture privatization of land and resources declining indigenous knowledge monetization of resources and services/ increasing hiV/Aids prevalence increasing health and education costs loss of access to communal resources Urbanization increasing skill requirements for nonagricultural employment deagrarianization Source: adger et al. 2004. such a large-scale global issue as climate change is partic- developments in the fields of education (literacy rates), ularly complicated when speaking of adaptive capacity in health (mortality rates), and governance and political that action and adaptation must take place across rights. Another report on adaptive capacity in Southeast economic sectors and at local, national, and even interna- Asia used statistics of development indicators, such as tional scales among a range of actors and institutions. the Human Development Index rankings, education, poverty incidence, income inequality, electricity cover- Like measures of vulnerability, measures of adaptive age, irrigation, road density, and communication as indi- capacity vary considerably. The climate change literature cators of adaptive capacity (Yusuf and Francisco 2009). is filled with attempts to develop specific indices of adaptive capacity that take into account all the factors A sociospatial approach to adaptation tries to link the that may go into adaptation and enhancement of resil- specific livelihood profiles found in geographically ience to climate hazards, but it has proven difficult to delimited areas to the ability of households and develop simple typologies, especially when the data communities to be resilient to climatic changes. While from on-the-ground field studies remains lacking individually people may or may not be able to adapt (Kates 2000; Yohe and Tol 2002; Smit and Wande depending on their access to resources and entitlements 2006). For example, in the vulnerability-resilience indi- (Adger et al 2005) , they are also constrained by what cator model, adaptive capacity is measured by human others are doing as well, and by norms on what types of resources capacity (i.e. literacy rates), economic capacity behaviors and responses are appropriate, which are often (i.e. GDP per capita and measures of income inequal- gender-specific, age-specific, and social status-specific. ity), and environmental capacity (population density, Examples of culturally shaped adaptation responses pollution emissions, percentage of managed land) (Moss might include informal non-monetary arrangements et al. 2001; Brenkert and Malone 2005). In another and social networks to cope with climate hazards that report specifically on adaptive capacity (Brooks et. al. are extended to close kin and other relatives; commu- 2005) and which looked at national-level indicators nity organization and communal responsibility; food- measured against vulnerability to climate-related disas- sharing expectations and networks; and local and ters in past years, the capacity of countries to adapt to long-distance support networks, such as migrant ties climactic events was most associated with strong (Agrawal et al. 2008). d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 5 Policy and institutional framework for Climate of policy implementation processes and outcomes. Both resilience direct climate policies (in the case of Vietnam, primar- ily the National Target Program on Climate Change), Because adaptation to climate change will potentially but also the more general institutional setting in which require changes in production and lifestyles, assessments adaptation will take place, is required. This part of the of planning and policy making at all levels are usually social study has an explicit linkage to the sectoral anal- part of any climate vulnerability study, and thus policy yses being undertaken for the Vietnam EACC, which was also assessed by the Vietnam EACC-social study. incorporates a review of related policy environments in The diversity of strategies for adaptation that will be the fields of agriculture, water, fisheries, and forests. required needs a policy framework to help facilitate adaptation, as well as favorable policies in related sectors Civil society actors and the private sector are also key that potentially impact on both vulnerabilities and space components of understanding institutional frameworks, for adaptation in the future, such as through reference to such as through analysis of how useful local and land tenure policy, existing social protection measures, national policy has been in creating an enabling envi- national to local governance structures, and the roles of ronment for bottom-up adaptation practices. Such informal and civil society in possible adaptation policy assessments usually address existing institutional responses (Mani et al. 2008; Dovers and Hevri 2010). capacities, ongoing functions related to climate vulnera- bility and adaptation, future plans in these areas and Assessments of the policy environment related to adap- capacity needs going forward, and visions for overall tation usually entail an institutional analysis of key adaptation pathways and economic costs of these actors involved in climate adaptation, as well as reviews choices (Lim et al. 2005; Klein et al. 2005). 6 2. soCial dimensions of ClimaTe relatively coarse-scale analysis of the regional and national climate projections. Whereas our assessment of ChanGe in vieTnam the secondary literature on social vulnerabilities and livelihoods has relatively good coverage, down to the Studies of the social impacts of climate change in provincial level and oftentimes even at the district and Vietnam have been increasing in number in recent commune, such focused resolution is not yet possible for years, although the field does still lack national-level our climate projections. Thus this report can only try to reviews and papers published in the international peer map the detailed social vulnerability data on much more reviewed literature (for some of the only studies, see broad climate forecasts. In this we are primarily depen- Adger 1999a; 2003). Because Vietnam has not submit- dent on the new Ministry of Natural Resources and ted a National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) Environment (MONRE) report entitled Climate to the UNFCCC, as other countries included in the Change, Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Vietnam (2009). EACC study have, the data sets for Vietnam are neces- However, this report does not allow speculation below sarily more haphazard than might be the case elsewhere. the main eight or so agroecological regions of the coun- The EACC social team decided to focus our attention try in terms of projecting physical vulnerabilities. on a few major studies (although none of them nation- ally comprehensive in themselves) to assess what might e xP e C Te d P h y s iCa l i m Pa C Ts o f theoretically be physical and social vulnerabilities that C l i m aTe C h a nG e i n v i eT n a m Vietnam should pay attention to, and then construct our own preliminary index of vulnerability that takes into The current state of exposure to climate impacts is best account all three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and assessed by looking at past damage from climate- adaptive capacity. Our approach has been to analyze related disasters. Even in the absence of pressures from where previous vulnerability and livelihoods studies climate change, livelihoods of people in Vietnam have have taken place, what methodologies were used to long been subject to natural disasters. From 1953 to assess vulnerability, what they found in terms of the 2010, nearly 25,000 people were killed by natural disas- scale and scope of vulnerability, and then attempt to ters, and 77 million people were affected in one way or link overall understanding of these vulnerable regions to another. Total estimated damage has been over $7 forecasted climatic effects available in regional and billion (Table 2). The number one climate hazard in national climate models. Fieldwork undertaken to assess terms of people killed, affected, and total damage are the local impacts in several regions of the country is tropical cyclones (hurricanes), with over 80 different explained further in section four. storm events and around 45 million people affected and nearly 19,000 killed from 1953­2010. This indicates Unfortunately one major challenge in matching social that coastal areas, particularly in the northern half of vulnerability generally to the physical vulnerability the country, have the strongest exposure to the most expected under climate change scenarios is the still common climate events. With a coastline more than d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 7 Table 2. damaGes from naTural disasTers in vieTnam, 1953­2009 Type of Event # of events # Killed # affected Damage (000 dollars) drought drought 5 ­ 6,110,000 $649,120 avg. per event ­ 1,222,000 $129,824 flood Unspecified 7 836 1,150,175 $13,400 avg. per event 119.4 164,310.7 $1,914.3 flash flood 9 293 213,603 $59,200 avg. per event 32.6 23,733.7 $6,577.8 general flood 38 3,210 20,627,410 $1,946,925 avg. per event 84.5 542,826.6 $51,234.9 storm surge/coastal flood 6 804 435,3316 $749,000 avg. per event 134 725,552.7 $124,833.3 mass movement Avalanche 1 200 38,000 ­ avg. per event 200 38,000 ­ landslide 5 130 1,074 $2,300 avg. per event 26 214.8 $460 storm Unspecified 9 298 36,780 $1,035 avg. per event 33.1 4,086.7 $115 local storm 7 144 4,450 $10,100 avg. per event 20.6 635.7 $1,442.9 tropical cyclone 66 18,425 44,885,509 $4,334,470 avg. per event 279.2 680,083.5 $65,673.8 Wildfire forest fire 1 ­ ­ ­ avg. per event ­ ­ ­ ToTal 24,340 77,420,317 $7,765,550 Source: em-daT: The ofda/Cred international disaster database, www.emdat.be. 3,000 km long and covering 15 percent of the national well as the long-term climatic changes, some of which land area, coastal areas of Vietnam are home to 18 may be potentially beneficial to some sectors. Figure 1 million people, about 25 percent of the total national shows the current distribution of major climate events population. The second most hazardous climate events in Vietnam, and the following sections will assess the have been floods, with around 60 major events, 5,000 predicted long-term changes in climate exposure over killed, and 25 million affected in the past half century. the next 50 years. We note, however, that while physical Table 3 notes the increasing amounts of damage that exposure may seem a simple concept, it is not always have been caused by recent storms and floods, although agreed upon by all parties similarly. For example in in terms of deaths older storms have been more serious. stakeholder consultations in Can Tho to determine the affect of climate change on the catfish industry, officials Although exceptional climate events and disasters get and farm managers perceived sea level rise as the most the most attention, climate events are not climate serious threat facing livelihoods in the future, while change. In the latter case, there may be slow shifts in farmers were more concerned about changes in everyday climatic indicators over long periods of time. Thus stud- weather patterns, such as higher temperatures, early ies of exposure need to explore both the potential for rains, floods, saltwater intrusion, and typhoons increase in short-term exceptional climate events, as (Nagothu et al. 2009). 8 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 3. ToP Ten ClimaTe disasTers in vieTnam Top 10 by # Killed Top 10 by total affected Top 10 in terms of economic damage No. No. Total Damage Disaster Date Killed Disaster Date Affected Disaster Date (000 $) 1 storm sep-64 7,000 storm 15/09/80 9,027,174 storm 28/09/09 $785,000 (Ketsana) 2 storm 2/11/97 3,682 storm 23/07/80 6,624,710 storm 27/09/06 $624,000 (linda) 3 storm 26/09/53 1,000 flood Jul-00 5,000,004 flood 27/10/08 $479,000 4 storm 23/10/85 798 storm oct-89 4,635,762 storm 2/11/97 $470,000 (linda) 5 storm 25/05/89 751 flood Aug-78 4,079,000 storm 30/11/06 $456,000 6 flood 25/10/99 622 flood 25/10/99 3,504,412 drought dec-97 $407,000 7 Epidemic 1/1/64 598 drought dec-97 3,000,000 storm 24/07/96 $362,000 8 storm 24/07/96 585 flood 7/9/85 2,800,000 flood 10/11/07 $350,000 9 storm sep-83 578 storm 6/9/86 2,502,502 flood 28/10/07 $300,000 10 flood Jul-00 460 storm 28/0909 2,477,315 storm 2/11/09 $280,000 (Ketsana) Source: em-daT: The ofda/Cred international disaster database, www.emdat.be. Future predictions are also harder to assess than past indicating a strong influence from the urban heat island damages and exposures. Currently, climate downscaling effect (Ho Long Phi, 2008). The average temperature in is taking place through modeling run by MONRE inner HCMC in the dry season is now on average 5°C offices. The primary models used by MONRE involve higher than in surrounding rural districts (Hung et al. application of MAGICC/SCENGEN software and the 2006). Hanoi is estimated to be 0.8°C hotter on average statistical downscaling method. These model scenarios than it was on average in the 1931­40 period for Vietnam are developed based on different emission (MONRE 2009). There has also been an observed scenarios: low (B1), medium (B2), and high (A2) using decrease in the number of cold fronts affecting the a baseline period of 1980­99 from the IPCC 4th Report. northern provinces during winter, but a rise in anoma- A recent MONRE report on this ongoing modeling lous and longer cold spells, such as the one that hit in concludes that the B2 medium emissions scenarios are Jan/Feb of 2008 and lasted for 38 days, killing thou- most likely, and thus what other Vietnamese ministries sands of livestock. should base their future planning on (MONRE 2009). The forecasted predictions are that by the end of 21st Temperature vulnerability century, temperatures in Vietnam will rise 2.3°C relative to the average of 1980­99 under medium emissions Observational data regarding local temperatures have scenarios (Table 4). The increase in temperature would shown clear increases. Vietnam has experienced an be in the range of 1.6°C to 2.8°C in different climate annual average temperature rise of between 0.5n and zones. Temperatures in northern and northern central 0.7°C from 1958­2007. Winter temperatures have seen climate zones of Vietnam would increase faster than the greatest changes, and the Northern part of the those in southern zones. In each climate zone, winter country is warming faster than the south (MONRE temperatures would increase faster than summer ones 2009). In some areas temperatures are increasing even (MONRE 2009). more rapidly. For example, temperatures increased 0.78° C in HCMC from just 1977­2006, which was nearly Main areas vulnerable to exposure. All areas of Vietnam twice the rate of the surrounding Mekong Delta, are predicted to experience a temperature increase, but d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 9 may be especially vulnerable to health ailments in fiGure 1. GeoGraPhiC disTribuTion of higher temperatures, given relatively low rates of use of Primary ClimaTe exPosure hazards in air conditioning in Vietnam, especially among lower vieTnam income classes. The lack of green space and planted trees for shade and cooling in central cities like Hanoi and HCMC also exacerbates the heat problems. storm and Typhoon vulnerability Since the 1950s, there have been over 200 typhoons that have affected Vietnam, although not all of them have been large. In an average typhoon season, about 30 typhoons usually develop in the northwest Pacific, of which around 10 are based in the South China Sea. Of this number, on average 4­6 will make landfall on or near Vietnam, although there have been years when 10 or more have hit, such as in 1964, 1973, 1978, 1989, and 1996 (CCSFC 1999). Observed changes in storms in Vietnam to date have indicated a larger number of high intensity monsoon storms, a tendency to hit further south than in the past, and for the typhoon season to extend further into the late fall (GoV 2003; MONRE 2009). Typhoons bring with them a myriad of events. Winds at sea often reach 60m/s, although this usually slows to 30­40 m/s when they make landfall. Precipitation Source: natural disaster mitigation Partnership. accompanying typhoons has been recorded as high as 100­300mm/day and some hurricanes have brought total rainfall amounts of between 500­1,000mm (UNEP 2000). Storm surges are also a problem; in the past 30 the phenomenon will be heightened in major urban years nearly half of all hurricanes have been accompa- areas due to the urban heat island effect. The elderly nied by surges of over 1 m. With large surges, dikes can Table 4. ProjeCTed ChanGes in annual mean TemPeraTure (° C) relaTive To The 1980­ 99 Period, medium emission sCenario (b2) Decades in the 21st century Climatic region 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 north West 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 north East 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.5 north delta 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 north central 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 south central 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 central highlands 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 south 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 Source: monre 2009. 10 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m easily be overtopped. Deaths from hurricanes have aver- meaning areas that have not typically suffered from aged 250 people every year, with some especially damag- storms (the southeastern portion of the country and ing ones like Typhoon Linda in 1997 that killed over HCMC) may increasingly be vulnerable. Figure 2 shows 4,000. Linda was considered to be the worst storm to hit the patterns of hurricane paths in past history, indicat- Vietnam this century, and was compounded by the ing southern-hitting storms have been quite rare. storm landing at high tide in a place where there was Unfamiliarity with storms can lead to heightened social little experience with typhoons and few means to vulnerability, as was highlighted in a recent Oxfam communicate to fishermen at sea. Total damages were report on the impacts of hurricane Linda in Ben Tre estimated to be $600 million (Duong Lien Chau 2000). province, where citizens had never in their lifetimes experienced a large typhoon. Families had houses that Regional climate models indicate that typhoons may could not withstand the winds, and many households continue to track further south under global warming had not prepared anything in advance of the storm, not scenarios, and the season for storms will likely extend, knowing how bad it was likely to be (Oxfam 2008). fiGure 2. PreCiPiTaTion and frequenCy of sTorms in souTheasT asia, 1956­2006 in sTarT of monsoon season (sePT). Source: oCha regional office for asia-Pacific. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 11 Main areas vulnerable to exposure. All coastal areas, with The Mekong Delta also receives regular floods, with particular attention to southeastern and Mekong Delta exceptional-scale floods being recorded in years such as coastal communities that are unfamiliar with storms. 1961, 1966, 1978, 1984, 1991, 1995, 1996, and 2000 (CCFSC 1999). These large-scale floods can easily flood vulnerability destroy hundreds of thousands of hectares of crops; for example, a 2000 flood damaged nearly half a million ha The Dartmouth Flood Observatory maintains a data- of agricultural and 16,000 ha of aquaculture land (ADB base of significant flood events worldwide since 1985. 2007). Flooding is at its most dangerous in the Mekong Vietnam is listed as having 96 flood events during Delta when large water volumes (such as that dumped that time period, caused by storms/typhoons as well by a storm) hit; if there are long periods of rainfall; or as rainfall events or other reasons. This puts Vietnam high tides push water in canals to rise and reduce their in between the flood risks of neighboring countries: ability to drain. While the Delta has long tried to "live for example, the Philippines recorded 283 flood with the floods" through adapting farming practices to events in the same period, while Thailand recorded the regular floods, thousands of hectares of land are still only 53. In general, three major geographical divisions inundated most years (Nguyen Huu Ninh 2007). can be made with regard to flood vulnerability in Vietnam: in the North, the Red River/Thai Binh Flash floods are also a problem, and seem to be increas- river system; in the Central Coast, small-scale coastal ing in some northern mountainous areas. This is mostly river systems; and the Mekong/Dong Nai river likely related to deforestation in these areas, combined system in the South. with high volumes of rainfall. Patterns of change in precipitation from the beginning of the instrumental In the Red River Delta (RRD) and Thai Binh river record (early 1900s) until now do not show consistent systems, there have been a number of major floods this patterns of change. Annual rainfall has decreased over century, the biggest being the great flood of 1971. the north, on average, while increasing over the south. Floods from both rains and typhoons are extremely The overall average has been a 2 percent decrease from serious in the RRD, because of the high population 1958­2007, but again, this hides more significant local densities of people living there, and the proximity of trends (MONRE 2009). much of this population to either river streams or to the sea in coastal areas. The major causes of floods in RRD The overall predictions for the end of the 21st century include a dense system of rivers, low-lying topography, under medium emissions scenarios are that the dry sea level rise, difficult circulation of flood water caused seasons will get drier. For the rainy season, it is by degraded quality of water supply and drainage predicted that precipitation trends will be for large systems, pressure on the dike system caused by rapid volumes in shorter periods, exacerbating floods in places urbanization and high population growth, and limited that already experience them. In northern areas, rainfall capacity in weather forecasting. From 1976 to 2003, is expected to increase at a higher rate than that of floods in the RRD inundated 2.7 million ha of agricul- southern ones (MONRE 2009). Overall, it is expected tural land, caused the destruction of 22,766 ships, and that by 2050 there will be increased rainy season precip- devastated 13.4 million houses. In total, the economic itation in the Red River Delta and Mekong Delta of damage has been estimated at $3.5 billion (Dang 2004). 10­20 percent. There will, however, be decreased precip- itation predicted for the Central Highlands and south- In the Central provinces, there is regular annual flood- central coast. In the dry season, the forecasts are for a ing, with particularly big floods in places like Hue and decrease in precipitation in the Northern Mountain Hoi An city, such as the 1999 floods in Thua Thien region of around 10 percent; a 20 percent decrease in Hue that killed 700. The short slopes and deforestation the Central Highlands and South-Central Coast; and a in many central provinces makes these floods very decline of 10­20 percent downstream of the Mekong dangerous, especially when storms are matched with River Delta (MONRE 2009). Taken as an average, heavy rainfall, which causes rivers to rise rapidly on the however, the annual precipitation in all regions is steep slopes down to the sea. expected to rise, particularly in the North (Table 5). 12 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 5. ChanGes in annual rainfall (%) relaTive To 1980­99 Period, medium emission sCenario (b2) Decades in the 21 century Climatic region 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 north West 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.4 6.1 6.7 7.4 north East 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.8 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.3 north delta 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.6 7.3 7.9 north central 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.7 south central 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 central highlands 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 south 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 Source: monre, 2009. With the predicted increase in total annual precipita- drought-damaged (UNEP 2000), and domestic and tion, flood dangers are expected to increase in many agricultural water supplies in several central coastal areas. The Dragon Institute of Can Tho University and provinces were at bare minimal levels for 2 years. The South East Asia START Regional Center have simu- drought also set the conditions for forest fires in the lated the change of temperature on other climate events Central Highlands and the Mekong Delta; thousands in the Mekong Delta to the 2030s. Figure 3 indicates of hectares of plantations were damaged (ADB 2007). the expansion of the depths of flood areas, particularly In the whole Mekong Delta, 15,900 ha of winter crops into newer regions in the southern part of the delta. were lost to drought and saltwater encroachment. The total loss from drought in 1997­98 was estimated at Main areas vulnerable to exposure. All areas of Vietnam 5,000 billion VND and affected 3 million people. are predicted to experience precipitation changes, but the strongest effects are likely to be the increased rain- Since that El Niño year extreme event, droughts have fall in the wet season, particularly for the Mekong continued to occur. In 2002, there was a drought in the Delta, and decreased rainfall in the dry season for the Mekong River Delta. The North-Central Coast had a Central Highlands and South-Central Coast. serious drought in 2003, along with some drought in both the Northeastern and Northwestern mountains. drought vulnerability The year 2004 was almost uniformly dry for almost the entire nation, with more severe drought along the The high seasonality of rainfall in Vietnam means that South-Central Coast and the Central Highlands. In the rainy season often brings five to six times as much 2006 there was moderate and severe drought along both precipitation as during the dry season (MRC 2004). the North-Central and South-Central coastal regions, Droughts can occur in every part of Vietnam, but have as well as the Northwestern Uplands and the Red River been concentrated in recent years in the central and Delta. southern parts of the country. The winter-spring crops ( January­March) are usually most affected. Drought Droughts have a particularly damaging role in the also appears to be on the increase; the areas of Vietnam Mekong Delta, where they contribute to increased sali- affected by drought doubled from 77,000 ha in 1979­ nization as well as the direct affects of drought. In Ben 83 to 175,000 ha in 1994­98 (ADB 2007). The 1997­ Tre province, officials estimate that saline water has 98 El Niño-related drought was one of the most moved upward about 60km inward from the sea during widespread and worst droughts Vietnam has experi- the dry seasons, an increase of 10 km in the past 5 years. enced; it resulted in 74,400 ha of coffee farms being Ben Tre agriculture officials estimated that in one year d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 13 fiGure 3. flood boundary in The meKonG river delTa, 1980s and 2030s (simulaTed) Source: draGon and sTarT, 2010. (2005), salinity caused 570 billion VND worth of be most affected by sea level rise (SLR), with "poten- damage, and resulted in 16,000 households having no tially catastrophic" consequences (Dasgupta et al. freshwater (Oxfam 2008). 2007). Observed sea level rises from tidal gauge data from Vietnam indicates about a 3mm/yr sea level rise Main areas vulnerable to exposure. All areas of Vietnam from 1993­2008, while longer term (50 year) data are predicted to experience precipitation changes, but from a site at Hon Dau oceanographic station indicate the strongest effects of drought are likely to be the a 20 cm rise (MONRE 2009). The National decreased rainfall in the dry season, particularly for the Meteorology and Hydrology Centre (IMHEN) Central Highlands, Central Coast, and Mekong Delta. predicts a rise for Vietnam of 35 cm by 2050, 50 cm by 2070, and 100 cm by 2100 under high emissions vulnerability to sea level rise scenarios. The low-end scenarios predict a rise of 28 cm by 2050 and 65 cm by 2100 (MONRE 2009), In a recent report, the authors noted that Vietnam may although the high-end estimate of 1 m or more cannot be one of the top five countries in the world likely to be ruled out. Table 6. ProjeCTed sea level rise (Cm) relaTive To 1980­99 Period Decades in the 21 century Scenarios 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 low emission scenario (B1) 11 17 23 28 35 42 50 57 65 medium emission scenario (B2) 12 17 23 30 37 46 54 64 75 high emission scenario (A1fi) 12 17 24 33 44 57 71 86 100 Source: monre 2009. 14 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 7. ToP 10 ProvinCes of meKonG delTa, by PerCenT land area inundaTed by 1 m slr Percentage of flooded/total Province/City Total area (km2) Flooded area (km2) area (%) Ben tre 2.257 1.131 50.1 long An 4.389 2.169 49.4 tra Vinh 2.234 1.021 45.7 soc trang 3.259 1.425 43.7 ho chi minh city 2.003 862 43.0 Vinh long 1.528 606 39.7 Bac lieu 2.475 962 38.9 tien giang 2.397 783 32.7 Kien giang 6.224 1.757 28.2 can tho 3.062 758 24.7 total 29.827 11.474 38.6 Source: Carew-reid (2009). A recent assessment of a 1 meter sea level rise asserts that Main vulnerable areas. Coastal areas, particularly below 1 5 percent of the country's land area would be "perma- meter (Figure 6). In terms of large populations, in Ho Chi nently inundated," affecting six of Vietnam's eight agro- Minh City, a SLR of just 50 cm, added to a flood-tide of ecological regions and 39 of 64 provinces, with around 8 about 1.50m, causes a temporary rise in the water level of percent of the total population affected. Some 2,000 +2.00 m. This would lead to a flooding of 300 km2 of the communes (out of a total of 10,000) were identified as city, with up to 71 percent of the land area and 62 percent being at risk of partial or full inundation. The biggest of the population being regularly exposed. Estimates indi- impacts would be felt in the Mekong Delta and Ho Chi cate that 6 percent of the land area, 15 percent of infra- Minh City, with Long An and Kien Giang provinces structure, and 500 major business enterprises in HCMC having the most land inundated (up to 50 percent). would be inundated with a 1m SLR (Carew-Reid 2008). Forty-three percent of Ho Chi Minh City is at risk of inundation, and many poor people have been identified as o v e rv i eW o f so Ci a l v u l n e r a b i l iTy i n living in these inundation zones (Carew-Reid 2008). v i eTn a m SLR will likely also increase salinity of shallow coastal Social vulnerability relates primarily to how access to aquifers, from which much drinking water is drawn. resources are distributed within and among communities. Seawater is now found about 30­50km inland from the While physical vulnerabilities may be geographically Red River Delta and up to 60­70km in the Mekong mapped with some precision, it is social vulnerabilities Delta (Figure 4). This increasing salinity can also affect that often are much more difficult to assess and to iden- mangrove growth. In addition, coastal erosion is a prob- tify clearly because they do not easily fit into definite lem; estimates are that erosion in many areas is on the geographic spaces. For example, natural events (such as order of 5­10m per year, and in some areas as much as heavy rains or floods) are often compounded by poor 1 km. The worst sites of erosion are the mouth of the local water management (such as inadequate pumps or Ganh Hau River in the Mekong Delta, the mouth of release of water from a reservoirs). The same phenome- the Van Ly in Nam Dinh of the RRD, and Tuy An non, like floods, also may not consistently affect the same district of Phu Yen in the South-Central Coast (Pham production sectors, some of which may be more sensitive Thi Thuy Hanh 2007). Land subsidence has also been to climate than others. Similarly, in some areas poor noticed in some urban and peri-urban sites, which could households may be the most vulnerable, while in other be further affected by SLR (Ho Long Phi, 2008). areas it is the better off, who have more to lose d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 15 fiGure 4. saliniTy boundary in meKonG river delTa in 2000 and ProjeCTed for 1m slr source: draGon 2010. financially in flood damage. These varying vulnerabilities officials in local MoLISA departments and given special make it very difficult to put forth comprehensive priorities to social safety net programs like health insur- national-level plans, and indicate downscaled, community- ance cards and educational subsidies (MOLISA/UNDP level assessments are likely to be most useful. 2004). In interviews with prominent scientists and policy To these official indicators we can add a number of makers on the question of whether Vietnam has a stan- other indicators of general vulnerability identified in dard classification for areas with different levels of livelihood assessments and participatory poverty vulnerability to climate change and a system for priori- assessments over the past 15 years: women, children, tization, our interviewees have confirmed there is no ethnic minorities, the illiterate, those who suffer food such classification. Several of those interviewed noted shortages, those under the poverty line, the disabled, that studies on climate change are often donor-driven; families with many children, and those in remote areas thus, they are conducted in places where the donors are (Poverty Task Force 2002). These indicators of social more interested, and have been haphazard thus far. The vulnerability come from a number of different studies. Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs For example, in the 1990s there were a number of (MoLISA) does maintain an official classification of participatory poverty assessments conducted by NGOs "vulnerable" populations in general (but not specific to with assistance from the World Bank, and many of climate change), for whom special safety net services are these studies looked carefully at the conditions of rural targeted. These vulnerable peoples include invalids, poverty (World Bank 1999). More recently there have elderly without relatives, orphans, and laborers with been several studies which of tried to look specifically limited schooling (Poverty Task Force 2002). These at the issue of climate change and vulnerability in groups of people are identified regularly by state Vietnam. Work led by the University of East Anglia, 16 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Poverty fiGure 5. imPaCTed areas of vieTnam from a 1m slr Poverty relates to vulnerability and the sensitivity of livelihoods to risks because it structures access to enti- tlements and resources. For example, those who are poor may live farther away from good quality natural resources, have little ability to absorb risk, and have trouble recovering once a risk happens (DFID 2004). The poor tend to have less diversity of income sources, and less access to credit to fill in income gaps, which likely increases their risk of disaster when one of their sources is strongly affected by climate. Vulnerability to shocks, whether they be climate or otherwise (such as health or unemployment shocks) has long been identi- fied as one of the major challenges for the poor in Vietnam (Poverty Task Force 2002). While the poor are not necessarily the only people impacted by climate risks, they tend to have less resilience, such as less access to insurance and less ability to rebuild or move away from affected areas. They are more likely to live in shoddy or substandard housing that is vulnerable to climate events and be more exposed to health hazards because of the occupations available to them (Few and Pham 2010). Given that households in recent surveys (such as Oxfam 2008 and World Bank 2009) already cited weather as one of their primary vulnerability and risk factors, the rise in extreme weather events that is likely in the next 50 years should be a source of great concern. Recent successes in poverty reduction in Vietnam have the Source: Carew-reid 2008. potential to be undermined by the effects of climate change. particularly Neil Adger (1999a, 1999b, 2000, 2003) Poverty in Vietnam has been the subject of many recent and Adger et al. (2005) has emphasized factors of in-depth analyses. Poverty is measured by a standard poverty and dependence on livelihoods to climate- government measure; according to Decision 170/2005/ sensitive economic activities (particularly farming and Q-TTg, poor households in rural areas have a fishing) as a proxy for household sensitivity to climate monthly income per person of below 200,000 VND and change, and has emphasized the strong role of institu- below 260,000 VND for urban areas. Areas with house- tional change, such as the erosion of collective support holds below this standard are considered poor. There for mangrove planting and dike repairs that were a part has been a strong reduction in overall poverty in of the Doi Moi process. Some recent climate change Vietnam in the past 20 years, with the fraction of and vulnerability reports based on new field data were households living below the poverty line at less than 15 done by NGOs (i.e. Kyoto University and Oxfam percent in 2006, compared to over 58 percent in 1993 2007; Oxfam 2008). In the following subsections, we (VDR 2008). But despite the overall direction of look at factors of sensitivity that were identified in the declines in poverty, pockets of inequality remain. For literature review, and apply them to the case at hand in example, the gap between those with the highest Vietnam. incomes and those with the lowest has increased d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 17 (Swinkels and Turk 2004). Furthermore, poverty is now Main vulnerable areas. Poverty taken in terms of regionally concentrated in mostly rural and ethnic percentages of the population indicate mountainous minority-dominated areas. For example, while only 14 areas with ethnic minorities are most vulnerable percent of the total population, ethnic minorities (Northern Mountains and Central Highlands). But in currently account for 44 percent of the poor and 59 absolute numbers of poor, the RRD and Mekong Delta percent of the food-hungry (World Bank 2009). The remain significant as well. And some wealthier house- main vulnerable regions for poverty include the holds are also likely to be sensitive to damage, as well as Northern Mountains, the Central Highlands, and the urban ones. Furthermore, areas with substandard hous- North-Central Coast, which remain poorer than the ing (Mekong Delta) and few household assets are also rest of the country in terms of percentages of people in likely to be at risk. poverty (Table 8 and Figure 6). In terms of total numbers of poor, however, the Red River Delta and Climate-sensitive resource dependency Mekong Delta are important because of their large populations and consequently large absolute numbers of When households' livelihoods depend on a small poor people. number of sources of income without much diversifica- tion, and when those income sources are in fields that While poverty is often associated with increased are highly climate dependent, like agriculture and fish- climate risk, this is not in and of itself the only possi- ing, households can be said to have climate-sensitive ble indicator of sensitivity. There are many examples resource dependence (Adger 1999). Agriculture and where wealthier households can also be very sensitive fishing make up significant parts of the overall economy to climate risks. In recent research conducted by of Vietnam, a topic explored in more detail in the CRES in the Red River Delta, wealthier households Vietnam EACC studies for these sectors. Rice is by far had higher amounts of damage in absolute terms the largest single crop, accounting for 43 percent of because they often invested in more risky economic gross agriculture produced in 2007, while other signifi- schemes (i.e. aquaculture ponds, large flocks of ducks, cant crops include tea, coffee, rubber, peanut, cashew etc). As a result, it actually took the rich longer to nut and black pepper for export, and corn, sweet potato, recover from floods than middle-income or poor cassava, vegetables, beans, and fruits for local consump- households. tion (Nguyen Lanh 2009). While irrigation is Table 8. inCidenCe of PoverTy by reGion (% of ToTal hh Who are Classified as Poor) Region 1993 1998 2002 2004 2006 All of Vietnam 58 37 29 20 16 northern mountains 82 x x x x north East x 62 38 29 25 north West x 73 68 59 49 Red River delta 63 29 22 12 9 north central coast 75 48 44 32 29 south central coast 47 35 25 19 13 central highlands 70 52 52 31 29 south East 37 12 11 5 6 mekong delta 47 37 23 16 10 Source: vhlss data in World bank 2009. 18 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Fishing is also highly climate dependent. Storms can fiGure 6. PoverTy maP of vieTnam bring salinity into aquaculture areas and damage the indiCaTinG PoverTy inCidenCe To health of animals. Particularly for small farmers, it can disTriCT level be difficult to recover from climate events, as suggested by the consolidation of shrimp farms into large and larger holdings as smallholders are squeezed out and forced to sell their lands to cover debts (Adger et al. 2002). Overall, about half a million people in Vietnam get most of their income from fishing, and another 2 million have fishing-related income. The value of fish- eries' exports has increased dramatically in recent years, as the EACC aquaculture sectoral note explains. The livestock sector is particularly important to many poor households, who count buffalos and pigs among their most important assets (World Bank 1999). When these assets are lost to disease or climate events, this can be one of the most significant sectors causing a decline in household livelihoods (Poverty Task Force 2002). The forestry sector is a relatively small sector of the economy, and provides only small amounts of income in most regions (Table 9). It can, however, be an important informal safety net sector and provide income when other sectors like agriculture fail (Sunderlin and Huynh 2005; McElwee 2008). Climate damage to forests, such as dry weather leading to forest fires, can thus be an additional stressor to poor households. A final measure of sensitivity in the climate-dependent resource sector is the impact of macroeconomic shocks and vulnerability to changes in global trade (Poverty Task Force 2002). As Vietnam is a relative newcomer to the World Trade Organization (since 2007), integration of production into world markets is relatively new, and some sectors can be very vulnerable. For example, the source: minot et al. 2004, based on 1999 Population and housing Census coffee sector has shown its strong vulnerability to world data and vhlss data. price drops (ICARD and Oxfam 2002). Main vulnerable areas. Provinces with a large number of households dependent on rainfed agriculture widespread in the rice sector in particular, there are still (Northeast, Northwest, North and South-Central significant portions of the country in which rain-fed coasts, Central Highlands) and households with little or rice dominates, particularly in areas outside the two no diversification of income sources (Northwest, main deltas. Clearly the changes in precipitation Northeast, Central Highlands) are likely the most predicted under climate change have the potential to vulnerable. Provinces with high numbers of fishing- significantly affect crop yields, as the EACC sectoral related businesses are also sensitive (Mekong Delta, report on agriculture has made clear. Central Coast). d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 19 Table 9. dePendenCy on differenT inCome sTreams by reGion % HH % HH involved in involved in % HH in % HH in % HH in Region Agriculture Fishing forestry industry services Other All of Vietnam 66.5 4.4 0.2 10.2 14.9 3.8 north East 83.5 0.8 0.5 3.7 9.5 2.0 north West 91.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 6.9 4.0 Red River delta 58.2 1.8 0.02 16.5 17.0 3.0 north central coast 72.5 3.6 0.3 6.0 11.8 5.8 south central coast 61.5 7.3 0.3 10.9 15.2 1.0 central highlands 88.7 0.12 0.06 2.1 8.1 0.9 south East 51.3 2.8 0.2 19.5 23.4 2.7 mekong delta 61.8 11.0 0.2 8.4 16.6 1.8 Source: 2006 rural, agricultural and fisheries Census. ethnic minorities for minorities, resulting in higher rates of illiteracy and lack of language fluency in Vietnamese, which hinders Vietnam has 54 official ethnic groups. The largest minorities' ability to interact with others and take minority group, the Tay, has nearly 1.5 million advantage of outside resources (World Bank 2009). members, while the smallest, the O Du, has barely 300. Combined, all of these factors likely make ethnic These ethnic minority groups share some things in minorities especially vulnerable to climate changes. common; 75 percent of Vietnam's minority populations Table 10 and Figure 7 indicates the regions in which live in two regions, the Northern Mountains and minorities make up sizable percentages of the overall Central Highlands, and most minorities remain rural population, namely the Northern Mountains and residents. This means that minorities are potentially Central Highlands. more sensitive to climate events by virtue of being more likely to be farmers and to live in rural areas. They are also more likely to be poor, as noted earlier. But ethnic minorities face specific factors of vulnerability that other rural or poor areas might not. Table 10. reGional disTribuTion of minoriTy PoPulaTions Compared to the Vietnamese (known as Kinh) major- % rural HH who are ity, minorities continue to be more dependent on staple Region minorities goods and traditional agriculture, and less diversified, All of Vietnam 15 and they report much lower rates of agricultural invest- north East 44 ment, with resulting lower productivity (World Bank north West 86 2009). Access to credit and financial services is very Red River delta >1 uneven in minority areas; Kinh report more loans and north central coast 11.3 larger bank loans than minorities on average, while south central coast 7 ethnic minorities report a higher need for credit central highlands 39 (Hoang Cong Dung et al. 2006). Minorities also face south East 7.5 many barriers in adaptive capacity as well, with the mekong delta 7.5 major factor in this area being much lower levels of education. Dropout rates remain significantly higher Source: 2006 rural, agricultural and fisheries Census. 20 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m fiGure 7. disTribuTion of eThniC minoriTies in vieTnam Source: World bank 2009. The Mekong Delta, which has a relatively low percent- landlessness and dependency on wage labor as their age of minorities, does have a particularly vulnerable main sources of income in recent years (Le Ngoc Thang group, the Khmer, who have experienced high rates of et al. 2006). The number of Khmer households who are d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 21 landless is estimated to be more than 25 percent, with labor if agriculture becomes unsuitable to their local surveys revealing that more than 75 percent of poor areas (Nelson et al. 2002). households were landless. Khmer landlessness was not usually due to shrimp farm debt, which is a major In Vietnam, gender analysis gives us an understanding reason for landlessness among Vietnamese (Kinh) in the of how the identities of women and men determine same area. Rather, Khmer loss of land seems to relate different vulnerabilities and capacities to deal with primarily to failures in rice and crop cultivation. As a climate change (UNDP 2009). A UNDP desk study on result of landlessness, over 80 percent of the incomes of gender and climate change in Vietnam notes that poor Khmer households surveyed in a 2006 report came women face challenges from climate change in three from wage labor (Le Ngoc Thang et al. 2006). Many areas: the productive, reproductive, and community people go to work for agricultural farms in neighboring spheres. In terms of production, agriculture has been provinces, and Khmer households from the same village increasingly feminized; 62 percent of women versus 52 often form a roving band of migrant agricultural labor. percent of men are engaged in agricultural production. This migration pattern has contributed to strong Thus it is likely that more women face risks from vulnerability among Khmer, as these labor seekers have climate impacts to the agricultural sector. Climate become dependent on distant and often unstable change also adds to water insecurity, which increases the income. A number of problems are also associated with work level of women as they are more likely to be the migrant workers, including less access to government ones in a household responsible for water collection (Le services and more vulnerability to poverty and social Cong Thanh 2008). Women are also much less likely to evils (Le Ngoc Thang et al. 2006). have their name on land tenure titles, which can increase their insecurity in the case of divorce or Main vulnerable areas. The regions where minorities widowhood and contestation over land rights. dominate, the Northern Mountains and Central Highlands, are likely to be most sensitive. Areas with For those in other economic sectors outside of agricul- smaller, less prosperous, minorities are also likely more ture, there is still vulnerability. More women than men heavily affected (North-Central Coast, South-Central work in household-scale small enterprises, as opposed to Coast, as well as the Northern Mountains and Central formal employment, and these household enterprises are Highlands). And the Khmer minority group in the often the worst hit and least able to recover as a result of Mekong Delta is a vulnerable population in particular, disasters. Female-headed households (FHH) have their due to very high rates of landlessness not seen in other own special needs. In the 1990s, nearly 25 percent of all minority populations. rural households were female headed, and 75 percent of all spouse-absent female-headed households in the Women and Children whole country were living in rural areas (Desai 1995). While a large part of the reason for a high percentage of It is clear that gender affects vulnerability to natural FHH in the past was due to excess male mortality as a disasters, thus it is to be expected that similar vulnera- result of the wars in Vietnam, younger FHH tend to be bility to climate change would also be encountered. For caused by migrant male labor or divorce/separation. example, increases in domestic violence have been Male out-migration can leave women and children left widely reported after climate disasters, such as hurri- behind more vulnerable to climate events as they have canes (Fordham 1998; Cupples 2007). Gender inequal- less strong labor to help batten down homes and lift ity also likely limits the possible range of responses for household goods to safety. Women migrants can be adaptation by women (Lambrou and Piana 2006). For vulnerable too, as they may be alone with little protec- example, changes in the physical environment as a result tion without social connections, as well as usually earn- of climate change may increase women's workload as ing less than men. Table 11 provides a snapshot of their access to natural resources may decline (Nelson et female vulnerabilities across regions in Vietnam. al. 2002). Women may be forced to break up families and either ask husbands to migrate or to migrate them- So far no sex-disaggregated data is available on injury selves in response. They may have to take up low-wage or death due to climate events in Vietnam, but 22 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 11. sTaTisTiCs on female sTaTus by reGion Maternal mortality by region (per Gender gap in male/ % female govt workers at Region 100,000 live births)1 female literacy rates2 commune level3 north East 411 5.3 3.5 north West (combined w/above) 15.2 2.2 Red River delta 46 4.3 2.7 north central coast 162 5.9 2.6 south central coast 199 5.1 4.0 central highlands 178 6.9 5.0 south East 45 3.1 10.0 mekong delta 143 6.6 4.8 Sources: 1 = demographic and health survey 2002 in adb 2005; 2 = vhlss 2004 in adb 2005; 3 = 2006 rural, agricultural and fisheries survey. anecdotal evidence suggests poor women are more likely currents may be strong" (Few and Pham 2010). Climate to become direct victims as they place family members' events can also indirectly harm children, as they can safety first. They are also often not warned by climate cause children to drop out of school (either due to alarms, which go to heads of households or men. More physical closure of schools due to damage or economic women tend to die in floods than men because they expenses not being available after climate events for "have not been given the same encouragement as men school fees), which will keep them from long-term and boys to learn to swim. All sorts of social customs advancement (Phong Tran 2008). and behavior restrictions made it more difficult for them to do so" (Oxfam 2008). Women are also less Main vulnerable areas. All regions/provinces have simi- likely to engage in community activities to increase lar vulnerability in terms of proportion of the popula- adaptive capacity. It has been estimated that female tion that is female, but more attention needs to be paid participation in local politics is less than 20 percent of to FHH, ethnic minority women, and migrant women official positions at local People's Councils, and some- in particular, who are more vulnerable. Children are times much lower (Le Cong Thanh 2008). Women's especially vulnerable in coastal and riverine areas where involvement in local Committees for Flood and Storm they have to cross waterways to go to school and work, Control is often limited to asking them to be in charge or where schools are vulnerable to submersion in floods of child-care or food distribution and sweeping and (primarily Mekong Delta, Central Coast, and Red River clean up, and they are not encouraged to take a more Delta). active role in overall decision-making (UNDP 2009). migration Children can also be strongly vulnerable to climate events, especially events like increased flooding. Vietnam has had strong patterns of migration since Evidence from interviews of people affected by floods rules relaxing household registration went into effect in after typhoons and storms in the Mekong Delta noted the 1990s. Since then, migration from rural to urban that there were many people who "had died in relatively areas has accounted for the majority of the migration calm waters simply because they could not swim" experienced (GSO and UNDP 2005). There are strong (Oxfam 2008), and of this number, child drownings regional patterns of migration in Vietnam, with most were the largest number. More than half of households areas sending migrants, and only two areas (the Central interviewed in a study of health and climate in the Highlands and Southeast) absorbing most in-migration. Mekong Delta "expressed fear for children's safety Large numbers of urban migrants can be found in the during the flood months when water levels are high and largest cities of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, and in d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 23 the Southeast region, which is home to a large number Vap, Tan Binh, Binh Thanh and Dis 12), where they of industrial zones where people have moved for work often make up a majority of the ward population in some in agroprocessing, textiles, and other industries. In addi- places (Le Van Thanh 2002), potentially making these tion, the Central Highlands saw a large number of districts sites of particular social vulnerability. in-migrants in the 1990s and 2000s, despite being a rural destination, due to high world prices for coffee Another consequence of migration rates is that many and other cash crops, and from government encourage- sending areas are losing their youngest workers, and this ment to settle these areas (Winkels 2008). This influx can limit the sending community's capacity to respond of migrants likely increased the vulnerability of local to climate events. Without young people it is difficult to residents (mostly minorities) as they saw their land and form youth labor groups to support the work on shoring natural resources availability decline dramatically, while up dikes, for example. Some villages in the Red River the migrants themselves have been very vulnerable to Delta have seen so many of their young people leave to climate- and trade-related shocks in the coffee sector in work elsewhere that there is almost no one left under the past 15 years (Cheesman and Bennett 2005; World age 50, and without strong laborers, dike maintenance Bank 2009; Dang Thanh Ha and Shively 2008). and protection of houses is very difficult during severe weather events (CRES unpublished data 2009). Migration can be both a cause and consequence of climate vulnerability. There is evidence that natural Main vulnerable populations. Places with high levels of disasters have been a strong motive for migration. In a in-migrants are vulnerable. Ho Chi Minh City has larg- study conducted in the Central provinces in early 2000, est absolute numbers, while other smaller cities, particu- respondents in Thua Thien-Hue stated that migration larly in the Mekong Delta, have rising numbers as well to the South had become even more popular in the (i.e. Can Tho city). wake of the severe floods in November 1999 (ADRC 2003). In the Mekong Delta, an assessment of migra- urban households tion as a consequence of climate change found floods to be a strong pushing factor for some households to leave While many studies have pointed out the strong vulnera- for other areas (Dun 2009). HCMC may face later this bility of rural populations to climate change, an increase century the prospect of large numbers of new migrants in urban-specific studies shows clearly that cities face in the form of climate refugees leaving the Mekong major vulnerabilities themselves, often affecting very Delta; estimations range as high as 5 million people large numbers of people (deSherbinin et al. 2007). who may be displaced (Carew-Reid 2008). Although urban areas are often assumed to be less vulnerable to impacts due to higher rates of development, Additionally, those who have migrated to a new area for there are many pockets of poor, often migrant or unregis- non-climate reasons (i.e. to get a job) may also be more tered populations in major urban centers of Vietnam vulnerable to climate events. For example, migrants in who will be just as vulnerable, if not more so, than rural Vietnam are required to have some documentation under farming populations outside of urban areas. Furthermore, the national household registration system (ho khau) in in terms of overall numbers of affected peoples, the order to access social services, but there are also numer- population density of urban areas means that while the ous people who never register and remain undocumented overall percentage of affected people may be lower in migrants (Pincus and Sender 2008). Undocumented urban than rural areas, the total affected numbers will migrants and those without permanent status have no likely be higher in urban areas. For example, the rights to public safety net services, and often are projected population of Ho Chi Minh City is 10 million exploited for low wages in employment or let go if ill or by 2020. With a current poverty rate of 6.6 percent of injured, and they have little recourse due to their undoc- urban residents, that is a large number of absolute poor. umented status (Dang Nguyen Anh 2005). Twenty-nine percent of the Ho Chi Minh City population is esti- The built environment of cities can mean more expo- mated to be registered temporary migrants, and migrants sure to climate hazards; for example, lots of concrete have tended to group in some particular districts (Go with poor drainage can lead to regular flooding. In Ho 24 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Chi Minh City, a great deal of building has taken place climate events, as well as large numbers of migrant in what used to be wetlands south of the city. This households. affects the ability of surrounding lands to drain and has been pointed to as a reason behind increased flooding in education the city (Bolay et al. 1997). Urban residents also may have more constraints to individual adaptation than Levels of education can play a role in climate change rural residents. For example, urban residents may find it sensitivity, because they can reflect the inability to read hard to move to a new area through migration due to and receive climate warnings, as well as information in higher investments in housing stock than rural farmers post-climate disaster situations about recovery policies. with lower quality or temporary housing. These urban Education can also affect people's ability to make households may also have less social capital if they have proactive adaptation decisions. Surveys in Thua Thien migrated and have no relatives or friends in their new Hue, for example, have shown that those with a high city, or have low participation in community and social school education were much more likely to think flood activity because of lack of legal residence permits. damage was a result of a combination of social vulnera- "Unofficial" work activity is a large portion of the bility and natural factors, while those with less school- employment of urban residents in Vietnam; for exam- ing were more likely to ascribe flood damage to "fate" ple, it is estimated that about 45 percent of the residents or an "act of God" against which they had little control in Ho Chi Minh City have some form of unofficial (Phong Tran et al. 2008). Higher levels of education work, including small business and services, i.e. motor- can also increase the ability to recover after climate bike taxis, mobile food vendors, etc. The urban poor also events through better access to information and sources often take what are known as 3D jobs--dirty, difficult, of support. Overall rates of literacy and education are and dangerous--such as portering, sewage cleaning, shown in Table 12, with high rates of lack of formal pedicab driving, etc (Nguyen Minh Hoa 2008). These education even in richer regions like the Mekong occupations can have low security of employment and Delta. low incomes, and be especially vulnerable to disruptions from events such as flooding. Main vulnerable populations. The most vulnerable popu- lations include the illiterate and households in which no Main vulnerable populations. Ho Chi Minh City has the one speaks/reads Vietnamese fluently. These are more largest number of urban households likely to be at risk, likely to be ethnic minority households concentrated in due to high exposure of the city to SLR and other the Central Highlands and Northern Mountains. Table 12. liTeraCy and eduCaTion raTes, 2001 % laboring population with no formal Region % laboring population who is illiterate education level past primary All of Vietnam 3.8 16.7 north East 7.4 14.8 north West 23.5 22.5 Red River delta 0.7 6.4 north central coast 2.3 10.4 south central coast 3.0 18.9 central highlands 5.6 17.4 south East 2.0 15.6 mekong delta 4.4 30.7 Source: Gso, 2005. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 25 illness, health, and sanitation change will impact access to water, given the changes that are predicted. Table 13 indicates the areas of Having ill family members is one of the main risks Vietnam that are already dependent on rainfall and facing poor households in Vietnam (Poverty Task Force surface water, and those with more reliable supplies of 2002), and climate change can bring health risks in well, piped or purchased water. The Mekong Delta is many forms. There are the direct health problems that particularly vulnerable to diseases spread through surface can be caused by floods and storms, such as injuries water sources, and the Red River Delta is vulnerable to from falling debris, as well as the sanitation aftermath changes in rainfall, given the large number of house- of climate events. Diarrheal diseases are a major concern holds who rely on rainfall for their water supplies. after flood events, with stagnant and nonpotable water spreading illness. Children and those already ill are Main vulnerable populations. The most vulnerable popu- particularly at risk. There is also an "elevated risk of skin lations include people with existing illnesses that can be diseases and conjunctivitis, especially among children exacerbated, children, and people living in areas with who might play in the polluted water" (Few and Pham poor sanitation. 2010). indicators of adaptive Capacity According to the Ministry of Health, there are a number of diseases that are on the rise, some of which Adaptive capacity, as noted earlier, relates to the ability may be connected to changes in climate. These include of institutions or people to modify or change character- increases in incidences of respiratory disease, rheuma- istics or behavior so as to cope better with existing or tism, hepatitis B, diphtheria, cholera, typhoid, plague, anticipated external stresses from climate. There are a and malaria (Hoang Xuan Huy et al. 2007). Warmer number of indicators of this capacity that have been climates will likely increase health risks to the elderly pointed out in the literature; here we focus on social and those already suffering from some diseases. capital and collective action, institutional adaptations, Temperature changes may also increase the breeding and government safety nets. Unlike the indicators for grounds for disease-carrying vectors. exposure and sensitivity that we outlined in the above sections, which can be assessed with existing data Existing conditions regarding sanitation and access to sources by region, for these adaptive capacity indicators clean water are not yet ideal, and it is likely that climate it is very hard to find quantitative or qualitative Table 13. household aCCess To WaTer 2005, in % of households Who GeT mosT of Their WaTer from differenT sourCes Well Surface/Spring Rain Piped water Purchase Region (% of hh) (% of hh) (% of hh) (% of hh) (% of hh) All of Vietnam 62 8 15 8 >1 north East 70 >1 3 3 >1 north West 41 51 1 2 >1 Red River delta 52 >1 42 6 >1 north central coast 80 1 8 5 >1 south central coast 90 >1 >1 5 >1 central highlands 85 2 >1 2 >1 south East 84 1 1 10 1.9 mekong delta 32 35 13 19 >1 Source: 2006 rural, agricultural and fisheries survey. 26 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m assessments by region. They are much more usefully hierarchical government structure, with government assessed at levels such as districts or communes. offices organized vertically from central to provincial to district to commune levels, the lowest level of state Social capital and collective action is one such indicator. administration in Vietnam, with a total of more than In modern Vietnam, the individual family household is 10,000 communes in the country. Although there may the prime kin unit, but extended kin relations remain be a provincial department of a central ministry--for one of the strongest markers of identity, and relatives are example, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural usually the first people to be called on in cases of need. Development (MARD) has provincial offices known as Kinship networks are well-known as being particularly Departments of Agriculture and Rural Development important for gaining access to information (Lan Anh (DARD)--these departments are answerable both to the Hoang et al. 2006). They are also important in mutual People's Committee of the province (lateral reporting assistance, such as in sharing work in agricultural tasks. responsibility) as well as to the central ministry (vertical Reciprocal help is essential at peak seasons of rice culti- reporting responsibility). This system, while useful for vation, particularly during transplanting and harvesting. conveying information in a clear hierarchy from top to Overall, more than 85 percent of the households in one bottom, also results in a lot of overlap between depart- survey reported regular labor exchanges, with the average ments at each level, and unclear chains of command number of days varying from a minimum of five to more between vertical and horizontal levels. This means that than twenty days per season (McElwee 2007a). People new approaches and new actions, such as those needed also can ask for help from their friends from other to deal with new issues like climate change, will likely communes or districts, and relatives are the first line of only slowly be incorporated into the existing institu- defense for households that have been affected by tional system. storms. They seek shelter in relatives' houses, rely on relatives to help them clean up afterwards, and to There are also increasing numbers of new organizations provide loans if financial assistance is needed. that may play roles in local areas vis-à-vis climate adap- tation. These include fishing and farming unions, agri- There is a history of use of this informal system to play cultural cooperatives, and farmers' informal working a role in helping households cope/adapt with climate- groups. These groups can leverage support for their related events, such as floods, which could be a good members in times of shocks and high risks. For exam- buffer and source of adaptive capacity for the future. ple, many agriculture cooperatives have contracts with This "social capital" for climate adaptation can be partly commercial suppliers of agricultural inputs, which the seen through the informal financial supporting activities cooperative delivers to the individual farmer members of women's groups, for example (Miller 2006). on credit to be paid after harvest. There have been good Particularly in the Mekong Delta, women often form examples of cooperatives acting after floods in Thua into small groups to provide rotating credit, in which Thien Hue in 2000 to bridge a gap between the time members contribute a specific amount of money every the flooding occurred and the availability of formal month to lend one member. The amount will be circu- support credits for the next crop by coops buying inputs lated among members monthly. This kind of practice on credit for delivery to farmers with payment due after can be among women within a village or among broth- the subsequent harvest (ADRC 2003). ers and sisters in a families or clans. The goal is to understand these informal institutions better, and help One problem for climate change planning is the wide the formal system to support and encourage these infor- disparity between regions in terms of their inputs to the mal practices (Adger 2003). central budget and what they receive in return, which affects the ability of localities to deal with climate adap- Institutional capacity thus has a role to play. Recent tation. The wealthiest regions (the Red River Delta, the research shows clearly that institutions have a large role South-Central Coast, and the South east, which to play in understanding where vulnerability to climate includes Ho Chi Minh City) transfer much more to the change might be high, and how adaptation can happen central budget than they receive in return in terms of (Agrawal 2008) Vietnam has a very per capita budget support. Therefore, wealthier regions d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 27 are not necessarily better equipped to deal with climate used in Vietnam, such as the number of social ties impacts, as so much of their wealth is transferred to between households; existence of active loan and other regions, and the poorer regions are dependent on support networks in villages; number of informal these central transfers, which limits their ability to put community-based organizations in localities; number of into place flexible local adaptation measures. informal work groups or production cooperatives; districts and localities with more budget flexibility; Social safety nets can also play a role in adaptive training and support for key government personnel in capacity. The removal of much of the former socialist capacity for adaptation; presence of formal climate safety nets during the Doi Moi process has left more adaptation plans or strategies at local levels; experience households paying for public services out of pocket. with past climate disaster events; and communes and Many formerly state services are now funded through districts with high credit and lending rates. additional fees and contributions paid by individual citizens and are being provided by state, para-statal, C o m b i n e d i n d iC aTo r s us e d f o r and private entities (such as agricultural inputs, now i d e nTi f iCaTi o n o f vu l n e r a b l e zo n e s sold from private agribusinesses competing with state- owned fertilizer factories). By the end of the 1990s, In this final section of chapter 2, we combine the analy- for example, Vietnamese had to pay out of pocket for sis of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to see most social services; these expenditures accounted for what regions are likely to be the most vulnerable to about 70 percent of the country's education expendi- climate impacts. We follow the standard regional studies tures and 80 percent of health expenditures, whereas of Vietnam, which are based on divisions of the country 20 years ago these would have all been provided in into eight agroecological zones. exchange for work in collective enterprises or agricul- tural farms (London 2004). For an individual house- Table 14 marks a first attempt to assess vulnerability by hold, the fees for social services have imposed an region, based on exposure and sensitivity (adaptive increasing burden on household incomes, and these capacity is not accessed here, given the difficulties in burdens have fallen especially hard on the poor (Evans collecting data on the indicators for this indicated in et al. 2007). the previous section). Each indicator is ranked by rela- tive importance in comparison with other regions, with While in theory, the existing state safety net programs 0 being lowest impact/importance and 4 being of high- (primarily social security payments, disability payments, est impact/importance. health insurance, education subsidies, and poverty alle- viation programs) have the potential to mitigate the Below we provide a summary of the regional vulnerabil- adverse impacts of climate shocks, in fact, there is low ities across Vietnam. spending on social services relative to needs (Van De Walle 2004). Large numbers of eligible people simply n aTi o n a l P l a n n i nG f o r C l i m aTe do not receive safety net coverage. Furthermore, social C h a nG e : n aPa a n d oTh e r s Tr aTe Gi e s benefits are often tied to one's location; undocumented migrants do not have access to social safety net services Vietnam's first national communication to the UN if they lack household registration cards. The provincial Framework Convention on Climate Change disparities in expenditures from the National Target (UNFCCC) in 2003 did not say much about adaptation Programs on hunger alleviation and poverty reduction policy, listing only a few technical possibilities in adap- (HEPR) area also of concern. While the greatest tation to explore, like introducing new drought-resistant expenditures have been made largely in the poorest crops and building sea dikes higher, but did not give areas, there is significant unevenness in how much financing or timelines to these ideas (GoV 2003). actually goes to each poor person (VDR 2005). Vietnam has not yet completed or submitted a national adaptation program of action (NAPA), unlike other Main indicators of adaptive capacity. There are many countries in the region. possible indicators of adaptive capacity that could be 28 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 14. ComParison of vulnerable reGions by indiCaTors of exPosure and sensiTiviTy Indicator NW NE RRD NCC SCC CH SE MD Exposure 1.16 1.5 2.16 3.16 3.16 1.66 1.83 3 storms 1 3 4 4 4 2 2 3 flood 1 1 4 4 4 2 2 4 salinity 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 slR 0 0 2 2 2 0 3 4 landslide/flash flood 3 3 1 3 3 2 1 1 drought 2 2 1 4 4 4 2 2 Sensitivity 3 2.13 1.5 2.13 1.75 2.75 1.875 2.25 poverty 4 3 2 4 2 4 1 2 lack of economic 4 4 2 4 3 4 2 2 diversification Ethnic minorities 4 3 0 1 1 4 1 2 Women & children 4 3 1 2 3 3 1 2 migrants 0 0 2 2 1 4 4 1 Urban pops 0 0 2 1 1 0 4 3 Education 4 3 1 2 2 2 1 3 health and sanitation 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 nW: northwest mountains; ne: northeast mountains; rrd: red river delta; nCC: north-Central Coast; sCC: south-Central Coast; Ch: Central highlands; se: southeast; md: mekong delta. Source: data from CCsfC 2005 for exposure; self assessment for sensitivity based on indicators in report. However, a National Target Program (NTP) to respond Vietnam's NTP is the closest equivalent to a NAPA as to climate change (Decision No. 158/QD-TTg) was many other countries have under UNFCCC obligations, developed in 2006­08 with the involvement of many although it is not as focused on adaptation as it might be. national ministries and local areas, and was officially During the discussion leading up to the formalization of adopted in December 2008. The goals of the NTP are Vietnam's NTP, there has been concern that the country as follows: has significant deficiencies in local expertise in the field of vulnerability and adaptation assessment, and the NTP has · Identify the extent of climate change on Vietnam called for additional resources in the area of training and and its expected impacts capacity building in this area. This lack of expertise has · Identify adaptation measures and policies been one reason why Vietnam has not yet filed a NAPA. · Promote scientific and technological activities related to climate change While the NTP document indicated possible general · Strengthen capacity building to respond to climate sites of vulnerability to climate, there were no clear change criteria or indicators used for this assessment, nor were · Raise public awareness these factors of vulnerability researched or compared in · Promote international cooperation any systematic way. The NTP mentions the importance · Mainstream climate change into socioeconomic of carrying out detailed vulnerability assessments to development strategies and all levels of planning supplement the above general picture, but so far, such · Develop specific action plans and pilot projects to efforts have been haphazard and not consistent. For respond to climate change (Nguyen Mong Cuong example, the NTP took a sectoral and regional 2009) approach, but did not specifically collect data on these d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 29 box 1. reGional vulnerabiliTies To ClimaTe ChanGe Mekong Delta Region: HIgH ExPoSuRE, MoDERaTE SENSITIVITY · Main physical vulnerabilities: sea level rise, flooding, saline intrusions, rising rates of storms: inland flood zone including An giang and dong thap provinces; saline intrusion areas: Kien giang, ca mau, Bac lieu. lack of freshwater in the dry season; long flood duration areas (the trans-Bassac depression zone) such as can tho city. · Main social vulnerabilities: several provinces with poor Khmer ethnic minority; rising rates of landless; large numbers of migrants (10 per- cent poverty rate). Central Highlands: MoDERaTE ExPoSuRE, HIgH SENSITIVITY · Main physical vulnerabilities: flash floods, droughts, floods. · Main social vulnerabilities: high number of ethnic minorities, high rates of poverty (29 percent incidence by region), many migrants, high numbers dependent on rainfed and subsistence agriculture. Northern Mountains (Northeast and Northwest): loW ExPoSuRE, HIgH SENSITIVITY · Main physical vulnerabilities: landslides, flash floods, droughts, storms from East china sea · Main social vulnerabilities: 49 percent poverty in the nW region; many provinces dominated by diverse ethnic minorities; high illiteracy rates and large families; low rates of female education; many remote areas with poor road access; high rates of subsistence and rainfed agriculture. Central Coast (North and South): HIgH ExPoSuRE, MoDERaTE SENSITIVITY · Main physical vulnerabilities: increased storms from East china sea, coastal surges, flooding, some drought-prone areas, esp. in south of coast. · Main social vulnerabilities: 29 percent poverty in north, 13 percent in south coast; pockets of ethnic minorities; many fishing communities; dependence on rainfed agriculture in many areas. Red River Delta: MoDERaTE ExPoSuRE, loW SENSITIVITY · Main physical vulnerabilities: storms from East china sea, floods and flash floods, inundation. · Main social vulnerabilities: relatively low 9 percent poverty rate but large number of poor people overall; high rates of outmigration; female-headed households. Southeast Region: loW ExPoSuRE, loW SENSITIVITY · Main physical vulnerability: coastal storms, drought in inland areas. · Main social vulnerabilities: low rates of poverty overall (6 percent) but some pockets, particularly for ethnic minorities; many migrant workers. vulnerabilities. Mentioned vulnerable sectors include general advisory committee made up of several govern- agriculture, water resources, and public health with ment ministries. MONRE is taking the overall role for vulnerable regions being coastal areas (including deltas) implementation of the NTP and acts to help other and mountain regions (especially those with flash floods ministries develop their own specific plans. The NTP and landslides). Vulnerable communities were assumed identifies 1,965 billion VND ($115 million) that will be to be farmers, fishers, ethnic minorities, senior citizens, needed to implement the strategy from 2009­15, of women, children and poor people in urban areas (GOV which 50 percent will be domestic funding, and 50 2008). The NTP also took note of the serious potential percent from international sources. Of the domestic of climate change to hurt achievement of the money, more than half will come from the central Millennium Development Goals. budget and the rest from localities and the private sector. The NTP did not formalize an overall government In terms of specific details, the NTP primarily calls for structure for adaptation action, instead only setting up a pilot projects on coping with climate change, 30 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 15. ProPosed areas, seCTors and CommuniTies vulnerable To ClimaTe ChanGe in vieTnam in The naTional TarGeT ProGramme Climate Change Impact Vulnerable Areas Vulnerable Sectors Vulnerable Communities temperature · mountainous Areas: northern · Agriculture and food security · poor farmers increase East, Western East and · Aquaculture natural ecology systems · Ethnic minorities north central part and biodiversity Water resources · senior citizens · northern delta Energy (production and consumption) · children and women community health care sea level rise · coastal Areas, especially · Agriculture and food security · coastal communities, deltas and flooded areas Aquaculture sea and coastal especially poor farmers and (mekong River delta, Red ecological systems Water resources fishermen River delta, and coastal (surface and ground water) Energy · senior citizens central part) tourism Residential space · children and women · islands infrastructure, industrial zones floods, flash floods, · coastal Areas (including · Agriculture and food security · coastal communities and landslide delta areas and flooded · Aquaculture transportation Water · mountainous communities, areas: delta and coastal resources infrastructure Residential especially ethnic minority northern mtns, mekong River space health care and life trade and groups delta and coastal central tourism · senior citizens, children, and part) mountainous areas: women northern West, northern East, north central part and highlands storms and tropical low · coastal Areas: especially · Agriculture and food security · coastal communities, pressure coastal central part, Red Aquaculture transportation Energy especially fishermen River delta and mekong offshore and coastal activities · senior citizens, children, and River islands infrastructure place of Residence women health care and life trade and tourism droughts · central part, especially south · Agriculture and food security Water central part delta and resources Energy (hydro power) northern part midland Waterways health care and life mekong delta highlands Source: Gov 2008. construction of legal frameworks and awareness raising, and community hygiene projects. In coastal areas, the human resources development, international cooperation, NTP calls for integrated coastal zone management and mainstreaming of climate into local plans and the plans, infrastructure adapted to sea level rises, storm national socioeconomic planning process. While the early warning systems, research on the function of NTP calls for future assessment of climate change ecosystems like mangroves, and sea dike reinforcement. impacts on sectors and localities, it does not call specifi- In mountainous areas, the NTP calls for a strategy to cally for assessment of vulnerable communities. The protect biodiversity, expand forestry, strengthen commu- NTP calls for stakeholder consultations to identify nication, integrate agroforestry, and expand irrigation. measures to respond to climate change, to build capacity, These activities are all left to the individual ministries and to have action plans in all ministries and sectors and that form the NTP coordinating committee to research localities to respond. Specific actions are thus lacking in and implement. the NTP, as these are left to ministries themselves to sort out in ministerial action plans (GOV 2008). Each ministry and sector is now in the process of designing its action plans under the guidelines laid out Specific adaptation activities mentioned in NTP that in the NTP. Guidelines have been sent to provinces and the government intends to focus on include new tech- cities for them to make similar action plans as well. The nologies in agriculture, new planning for river basins action plans for each sector or ministry are expected to and water management, and quarantines for diseases be different from each other. In each ministry action d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 31 plan, the following issues are required to be analyzed: ministries developing their own plans for agriculture, weather trends; who is affected and by what; and which the water sector, energy sector, etc. This can lead to measures are the most effective for adaptation. MARD competition among agencies. This division of activities is one of the leading ministries that already completed among ministries and sectors (agriculture, industry, etc), their action plan, while others have lagged behind means that cross-sectoral problems (like urban plan- somewhat. MONRE officials involved in issuing guide- ning) will not be approached in a holistic integrated lines for these action plans stated that a province would manner and will simply replicate existing administrative definitely need to hire international consultants to help divides and promote overlapping policies and "silo" them carry this out. The government planned to set behavior, such as a lack of sharing of information. aside 150 billion VND for 64 provinces and cities in the country to design their plans in 2009 and 2010, but to The main adaptation measures mentioned in the NTP date, in fact, only 60 billion VND has been spent for are also primarily "hard" adaptation measures (sea dikes, four provinces. reinforced infrastructure, more durable buildings) with some other measures, like resettlement, storm warning The NTP states that a goal should be to mainstream systems, and mangrove planting (MONRE 2008). Little climate change into all levels of development planning, attention has been paid to social vulnerability or "soft" but that national guidelines on how to do this will have adaptation measures like community mobilization plans, to be formulated first. This means many localities will social safety nets, insurance schemes, livelihood diversi- wait until they get instructions on this and will not fication, increasing institutional capacity, or the role of proactively seek to change their planning approaches local action and social capital in building resilience and until then. After action plans are designed by provinces adaptive capacity outside of government programs. This and cities, it is expected that they will be reviewed by a is largely because to Vietnam, as with other countries in team consisting of international consultants and experts the region, "adaptation is understood as primarily a among interested donor agencies. A final national adap- technical means with which to reduce and minimize the tation policy will be made after the final version of impact of climate change rather than as a complex set action plans of ministries and sectors and localities are of responses to existing climatic and non-climatic all approved (which could take 5 years or more). factors that contribute to people's vulnerability" (Resurreccion et al. 2008). The NTP also makes no Challenges. Clear challenges face this NTP approach. attempt to differentiate between reactive adaptation and The overall focus of the NTP to date has been on adap- anticipatory adaptation (such as long-term integrated tation options that the government can implement water planning and management), or between planned through policy or financial planning, to the exclusion of adaptation and facilitation of spontaneous adaptation. other approaches. There is a significant lack of horizon- Overall, the NTP faces serious challenges in the inte- tal integration as each ministry and each province and gration, decision-making process, involvement of the locality is coming up with their own separate action private and sectors, and the cost-effectiveness and plans. Sectoral approaches also dominate, with specific financing of adaptation plans. 32 3. researCh meThodoloGy other experts. We reviewed how useful local and national policy has been in creating an enabling envi- ronment for bottom-up adaptation practices, as well as researC h sTraT eGy and ques Ti o n s how vulnerabilities to climate events have been reduced or increased due to policies in related areas in recent The research strategy for this project involved four main years. The policy review also attempted to link to the phases, each with specific approaches and sector analyses being undertaken for the Vietnam methodologies. EACC by providing a review of related policy environ- ments in the fields of agriculture, water, fisheries, and Phase 1. Development of a vulnerability overview forests, which were presented in the inception report of and typologies for Vietnam February 2010 in more depth. Developing a vulnerability overview for Vietnam took Stakeholder interviews supplemented the policy docu- place in December, January, and February of 2009/10 ment review and took place in January 2010. after contracts for work were signed, and primarily used Departments interviewed included: existing qualitative and quantitative secondary data in the fields of poverty, vulnerability, and past climate · Department of Science, Education, Natural hazards and adaptation. A literature review of the Resources and Environment, Ministry of Planning secondary sources on climate and vulnerability in and Investment (MPI) Vietnam was undertaken by the international consultant · Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and to the project, the findings of which were presented in Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources and part 1 and 2 of this report, as well as a longer inception Environment (MONRE) report. The goals of the review were to analyze where · National Institute for Science and Technology previous studies have taken place, what methodologies Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Science and were used to assess vulnerability, and what these other Technology (MOST) studies found in terms of the scale and scope of · Department of Dike Management and Storm and vulnerability. Flood Control, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Phase 2. Policy review on adaptation All interviewees were asked about their existing institu- In conjunction with the literature review on vulnerabil- tional capacities, ongoing functions related to climate ity, the project also assessed the current policy environ- vulnerability and adaptation, future plans in these areas, ment related to adaptation. This phase involved an and capacity needs going forward, as well as visions for institutional analysis of key actors involved in climate overall adaptation pathways and economic costs of these adaptation, as well as interviews with these actors and choices. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 33 Phase 3. Localized vulnerability assessments together to identify social costs and benefits of adapta- through local fieldwork tion activities. The workshops were coordinated by CRES and the NGO Challenge to Change; the coordi- The focus of local field research was to validate the live- nators had been trained as workshop facilitators in a lihood profiles generated from the literature review, to ToT workshop in early March. The workshops involved draw a more detailed picture of the types of people who the use of climate data and forecasting, which was then are likely to be most vulnerable to future climate downscaled and presented to the affected communities. change, and how adaptation practices engaged in during The questions that guided the PSDs included: past climate events might shed light on future adapta- tion choices and pathways, with a particular emphasis · What are the perceived relative impacts of climate on how social vulnerability might be reduced and future as predicted by EACC models? Which seem most adaptive capacity built up. The tools for the local likely, and which least likely, to impact the develop- research included standard tools for vulnerability and ment trajectories envisioned by the community? adaptation assessment methodologies: analysis of past What might be some future drivers of vulnerability events, analysis of root causes, risk mapping, and social that have not yet emerged? assessments. These were approached through stake- · What are the local ideas about what the future is holder consultations with key informants, semi-struc- going to look like? What do people imagine their tured household interviews, and focus groups. The children's and grandchildren's lives will look like, questions guiding the field research included: especially for the next forty years? What are likely to be the major development trends that are going · What are the effects of physical and social vulnera- to affect them? bilities at different scales, from local to national? · What are the facilitating environments needed for · How are the most vulnerable households in the adaptation successes in terms of policies or institu- studied local communities adapting? Are these tional support? What have been the relative costs adaptation strategies different from less-vulnerable and benefits of these actions? households? · Can local adaptation practices from the past be · Do adaptation strategies in different environments scaled up in the future, or do new adaptation strate- to different hazards vary? gies need to be envisioned? How do different stake- · How do different types of institutions (public, civic, holders hold different perspectives on the scale and and private) either help or hinder adaptation actions scope of adaptation practices that will be needed? taken by individual households? · What different types of actions (behavioral, techni- Different scenarios resting on different visions and cal, financial, and otherwise) are undertaken by dif- assumptions were played out and the costs and benefits ferent types of households (poor, well-off, of adaptation pathways identified. The workshop find- female-headed, etc)? ings were a chance to assess the range of imagined futures that different communities envision, as well as a Phase 4. Participatory visioning workshops for chance to cost out different approaches and make diffi- scenario development cult choices about financial and social investments and outcomes. Workshops on participatory scenario development (PSD) were conducted in the main study regions s i Te se l eC Ti o n a n d s a mP l i nG (Northern Mountains, Central Coast, Central Highlands, and Mekong Delta) as well as in the capital While each of Vietnam's eight agroecological regions Hanoi to identify and categorize adaptation pathways will experience climate impacts to one degree or suitable for different livelihood groups. Participants in another, time and financial limitations meant that not the workshops--including representatives of vulnerable every region could be assessed through local fieldwork livelihood groups, local and national experts, officials by the social team. Thus the criteria for selection of and policy makers, NGOs and academics--worked study sites for the local field work were provinces that: 34 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m 1. were located in the regions that scored high on for one region (Red River Delta in Thai Binh and Ha indicators of exposure and sensitivity and low on Tay provinces). This left the team with four regions to indicators of adaptive capacity visit for local assessments during this project: the 2. were representative of their agroecological region Northern Mountains, the Central Coast , the Central 3. were places where little fieldwork had already been Highlands, and the Mekong Delta. conducted on livelihoods or climate adaptation. background to sites Due to financial and time limitations for the local field- work, the team combined some regions (the Northeast Northern Mountains. Little work has been carried out in and Northwest into one and the South and North- ethnic minority areas on climate impacts, particularly in Central Coasts into one region), decided not to focus the Northern Mountains. For understanding adaptation on the region that is least vulnerable socially (the practices in the mountainous region, research was Southeast), and relied on previous recent fieldwork on conducted in Ha Giang province. Ha Giang is one of vulnerability and adaptation done by CRES in fall 2009 the most heavily ethnic minority provinces in the fiGure 8. maP of vieTnam's reGions indiCaTinG siTes of loCal researCh d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 35 country, with over 90 percent of households being nearly 30 percent and only 3 percent of the population ethnic minorities. Major ethnic minorities are Hmong, has graduated from high school (ADB 2001). Dao, Tay, Nùng, Lô Lô, B Y, Pu Péo, and Chinese. Ha Communication and transport are generally difficult in Giang is one of the poorest provinces in Vietnam, with much of Kon Tum, especially in the rainy season, when major financial transfers from central allocation, and has many remote areas can be cut off from outside contact some of the highest rates of poor households of all for up to 1­2 months. Although Kon Tum is not a highland provinces. The province's environmental geog- coastal province, it has been increasingly affected by raphy is also very difficult, and comprises three main strong hurricanes that hit the coast and travel inland. In regions spread over ten districts: eastern limestone high- September 2009, when Typhoon Ketsana hit Vietnam, lands (extremely steep slopes and water shortage in dry Kon Tum had the highest death toll of all provinces (21 season); the highland region (land slides in rainy people). Around 52,000 households (310,000 people) reason); and two lowland valley districts. had to be evacuated before and during the typhoon. Livelihoods in two districts were assessed, one upland Agriculture dominates the province's economy. Kon and one lowland (Quang Ba and Quang Binh). Most Tum has a large and vulnerable ethnic minority popula- households in Ha Giang are dependent on non- tion (54 percent by total population) dependent on both irrigated agriculture, and corn and upland rice are the cash crops and subsistence agriculture. Forty-six percent dominant crops. Different ethnic groups tend to have of the provinces' households were considered under the slightly different emphases on different livelihood poverty line in 2005. The major crops grown in this area streams (i.e. Hmong tend to grow more corn, Thai tend are primarily cassava for subsistence, with only a little to grow more sticky rice), but steep slopes and rocky rice, corn, and rubber for supplemental income. soils have limited the expansion of much irrigated agri- Households located in areas of the province with basalt culture. Households are diversified somewhat into addi- soils have been able to transition into cash crop agricul- tional sectors such as livestock or wage labor, but these ture, particularly rubber but also coffee, tea, cashew, and usually make lower contributions to household incomes litsea in the past 10 years. This transition has been than in other regions. Despite being in a region that slower than in other parts of the Central Highlands, hosts much more forest and allows for more control which saw cash crop commodity booms in the 1990s. over forest resources at the local level, few households Forestry incomes are very low and few households have earn much income off this sector. Households that are official title to forest land in the province, despite a better off usually have additional income from trading large number of forest estates that remain state-owned. or from salary work, such as for the military or govern- The households that have been able to escape poverty ment. Access to roads makes a big difference in how and move upwards are primarily those who have been many people can take advantage of markets to increase able to diversify out of agriculture, or to invest in the their income accumulation. Incomes have risen in recent cash crops--such as rubber--that provide higher years and poverty has been reduced, but many house- incomes. Those that have not had the investment capi- holds remain just at or over the basic poverty line, and tal or capacity to move away from subsistence agricul- are susceptible to weather-related shocks that push ture remain very close to the poverty line, and depend them back below it. Ha Giang, being a border province, on rotational and upland rainfed agriculture, which is is also susceptible to development pressures from China, sensitive to weather. including hydropower development on the other side of the border. Central Coast. The Central Coastal zone from Nghe An to Binh Thuan is a long and vulnerable zone, likely to Central Highlands. Within the Central Highlands, Kon be subjected to increased storms, surges, and flooding. Tum was chosen as the field research site based on the Because much of the coastal region is often not much relative lack of research on this province generally; a higher than 1 m above sea level, an area up to 20 or much less open economy than other areas, like Dak Lak more km inland from the coast is vulnerable to storm to the south; and higher levels of poverty than other surges that bring saltwater intrusion inland. For our provinces in the region. Kon Tum has illiteracy rates of research on coastal vulnerability, Quang Nam province 36 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m has been chosen, with field research taking place in two employment opportunities linked to flooding would sites, Hoi An town and Cu Lao Cham islands off the have adverse consequences for nutrition, health, and coast. The rationale for Quang Nam was the need to education. Thus the poor face a double exposure. They include an urban area vulnerable to climate events in are far more likely to live in areas vulnerable to flooding, the survey and an interest in including an economic and they are less likely to live in more robust permanent sector (tourism) that will likely be quite vulnerable to homes. For the fieldwork in the Delta, Bac Lieu prov- climate events. Hoi An city is a well known site on the ince and Can Tho city were the study sites. tourist trail. In September 2009, Typhoon Ketsana caused severe damage and loss to local people in the Bac Lieu province faces the lower East Sea, and Central Coast, including Hoi An town. includes seven districts, three of which lie along the coast. The typical livelihoods in Bac Lieu province are Hoi An, which is particularly dependent on tourism shrimp farming and shrimp hatcheries, capture fisheries and vulnerable to flooding, is a city managed by the (both near shore and off shore), salt production, and province and is now recognized as a third-tier mid-size vegetable production. Shrimp and catfish farmers were urban city, with a population of 121,716 people. In presumed to be more vulnerable to risks posed by 2009, 2.32 million tourists arrived, and the income from climate change than rice farmers, who have longer tourism was estimated at 1,900 billion VND. From histories of adapting to floods and have better adaptive 2000 to the present, tourism revenue has had an average mechanisms than those in the newer, high-capital fields growth rate of 28 percent per year. For households in of shrimp and fish farming. Hoi An urban center, many are small entrepreneurs, with all members of a family participating in some way Can Tho City is a relatively new city founded 200 years in the tourism industry. This makes many households ago along the banks of the Hau River on low flat very dependent on the seasonal nature of tourism, and terrain, with an average elevation of about 0.8m to 1.0m during the rainy season in the fall, they can be vulnera- above sea level. Can Tho City is built along an extensive ble to declines in tourist numbers. river and canal network, with higher narrow strips of land--from 1.0m to 1.5m above sea level--where the For the fishing communities in much of the Central principal urban development areas are located. Since Coast, much of the decline in capture fisheries in the 2009, Can Tho City has been directly under the central past 10 years has been due to overfishing, not climate government as a tier-one city (of which there are five in change, but the vulnerability remains nonetheless. Cu Vietnam), and is considered the economic, cultural, Lao Cham islands off the coast of Hoi An city are a education, and medical center of the Mekong Delta. prime example. The small fishing villages that exist on The metropolitan area is 1,400 km2, divided into nine the archipelago have few other livelihood options, given administrative divisions, including five urban districts their lack of agricultural land and distance from the and four suburban or rural districts. Floods in the rainy mainland, which gives them very high dependency on season and high air temperature in the dry season are fishing and makes them particularly vulnerable if the main physical vulnerabilities of the studied districts. weather-related risks are added to the general problem Livelihoods include wage labor, trading, informal work of overfishing. The off-shore corals of the Central Coast such as food vending, and salt harvesting and shrimp have been very susceptible to bleaching events caused by labor in more rural areas of the city. While people living warmer temperatures, and can be vulnerable to invasion in urban areas tend to have higher incomes and better from thorn starfish, a coral predator. connectivity to public services, making them less vulner- able to risks posed by climate change, there are a Mekong Delta. The Mekong Delta faces climate threats number of poor households in the city as well. Poor from flooding and sea level rise in particular. There are people usually live in low topography areas and they do also 4 million people living in poverty in the Delta. not have enough money to raise their house floor. In Many of these people lack basic health protection and addition, poor people live in high population density school drop-out rates for their children are high. For areas; two or three generations may be living together in this group, even a small decline in income or loss of a small house, and ventilation is not good. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 37 me T hods: Tools emP loyed (Smith et al. 1999). Other PRA tools--such as sea- sonal calendars of climate risks, wealth rankings, Local research was carried out throughout March at matrix rankings of livelihoods, natural resource selected sites representing the vulnerable regions identi- access, and tenure maps--were also utilized in these fied by the social team. The research was carried out by meetings. These localized vulnerability assessments teams of researchers from CRES (Northern Mountain, provided a unique index of how vulnerability is per- Central Highlands, and Central Coast) and DRAGON ceived in different cultural and economic settings. (Mekong Delta) in conjunction with input and partici- · Focus Groups. To gather information regarding cli- pation of local authorities and local people. Fieldtrips of mate hazards, impacts, and adaptation practices and around one week per region allowed the teams to to address the role of community formation and quickly assess the local situation and get input from group identity on adaptation choices, the teams con- communities and officials, given time and budget ducted targeted focus groups. These focus groups, constraints that prevented longer fieldwork periods approximately 5­10 per community, were constituted from being possible. The methodologies that were used from the most vulnerable groups in communities are outlined below: that were identified in the group risk maps above. The focus groups included poor people, women, · Community Risk Mapping. Mapping exercises iden- youths, children, those who were landless, the elderly tified the most important local hazards, who and or infirm, migrants, and ethnic minorities as was what may be at risk, and which mitigation measures appropriate to the local situation, and allowed the are possible. Participants were asked to rank the vulnerable members to identify their particular chal- incidence and severity of subjective risk perceptions, lenges related to climate and adaptation possibilities. which allowed the researchers to identify and prior- · Key stakeholder interviews. Stakeholder interviews itize risks by distinct subpopulations and to con- were held with local civic institutions, private insti- struct an "index of risk" for different subjects tutions involved in climate issues in the local area fiGure 9. examPle of CommuniTy risK maP CreaTed in quanG nam 38 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m expenditures, agricultural characteristics (crop and fiGure 10. GrouP meeTinG in Kon Tum seed choice, inputs, field rotation, yields, and use or field siTe sales), type and scale of land holdings and tenure regimes, and diversification of incomes in the household. Risks and shocks were assessed through questions about the scale and scope of climate impacts in the past, as well as questions on adapta- tion behaviors that the household had engaged in the past in response to climate events such as droughts and floods, and what the costs of these actions were. Other questions addressed inter- household adaptation and collective action, such as food sharing, informal and formal networks, and use of local institutions. a P Pr o aC h To d aTa an a ly s i s The data analysis approach has primarily consisted of creating typologies of vulnerability and adaptation for (i.e. agricultural cooperatives or insurance providers); each community and extrapolating from these to the and with local government officials of the institu- larger regional and national issues at hand. These typol- tions identified as important in climate adaptation. ogies were developed and used to confirm the most At the provincial level, meetings with key informants vulnerable peoples to climate change by checking and from relevant departments--such as the Department adding to the vulnerability matrix designed by the social of Planning and Investment (DPI), Department of team during the inception report. They were also used Agricultural and Rural Development (DARD), and for validation of livelihoods portfolios; that is, for popu- Department of Natural Resources and lations that are presumed to be more vulnerable, such as Environment--were conducted. At the district level, a single female-headed household, how did their port- interviews with key informants at the district Office folio differ from other households, and how did differ- of Agricultural and Rural Development, Office of ent livelihood portfolios buffer against different kinds of Natural Resources and Environment and Office of risk? The results of the individual interviews were used Finance and Planning, and the Committees for to shed light on whether there were differences between Flood and Storm Control were carried out. Meetings ethnic, gender, and income groups with regard to how with cadres at the mass organizations--such as the they were able to engage in adaptation practices; why Farmers' Association, the Women's Union, and the they did or did not implement adaptation; and who had Red Cross--were also conducted. At the commune have been able to participate beyond the household in level, meetings with the heads of the same associa- community adaptation strategies. Finally, the typologies tions as at the district level were carried out. were used to assess both costs and feasibilities of various · Semi-structured interviews. To compare individual adaptation options that have been used in the past to household living conditions among the sites, a stan- cope with climate events through an assessment of dardized semi-structured interview tool was used adaptation investments to date locally, such as in the (see Appendix for the draft survey). The participat- fields of infrastructure, agriculture and income genera- ing households (180 total) were selected to be repre- tion, and safety net provision. sentative for the different vulnerability groups. The survey asked a number of questions related to how In analysis we looked for patterns of adaptive responses the household had been able to adapt to climate as identified by previous work in the literature on adap- events, such as household composition, labor alloca- tation, and worked to classify the adaptation practices tion, ethnicity, migration, patterns of income and we found into typologies of action (social, institutional, d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 39 physical, technological, investment, regulatory, market) prepared a brief summary of the approach to the and by actor (different levels of government from village Vietnam social study, which was presented by the over- to national, international actors such as donors and all social study coordinators, Robin Mearns and Anne NGOs, local communities and community-based orga- Kuriakose, for other EACC country teams to comment nizations, individuals, and the private sector). We also on. The Vietnam social team heard the feedback on the assessed actions across sectoral areas, such as in mobil- other social teams work so that problems could be ity/migration, risk pooling, storage, livelihood diversifi- avoided in our own country work. cation, and market exchange (see Agrawal 2008). We particularly looked at those actions that were cost affec- Members of the social team participated in another tive and that could be used across a variety of needs, teleconference for the Vietnam team only on January 26 such as those actions which: and 27. At that conference, preliminary findings from the other sector studies were presented, including from · Addressed the drivers of vulnerability, such as adapta- the agriculture/water team, the forestry team, the fisher- tion options that reduced poverty and increased ies team, and the coastal infrastructure team. The social overall capacity of the household to improve their team provided a six-page briefing overview of the livelihoods approaches to be taken in the social study to the other · Built response capacity, such as activities that focus members of the EACC Vietnam study on January 25 to on problem-solving through technological or other allow the other sectors studies to see where the social means, i.e. forecasting, weather monitoring study would be taken, and for those sectors to add their · Managed climate risk, such as activities that lead to input to the social study. The close connections between better incorporation of climate information, i.e. cli- vulnerability assessments being undertaken by the fish- mate-proofing physical infrastructures eries team and the social team were noted during the · Confronted climate change, such as adaptation activi- conference in particular. ties that were adapted for extreme response, i.e. relocation of whole communities away from vulner- Secondly, we held direct meetings between World Bank able areas (McGray et al. 2007) staff and EACC sector study personnel. i nT era CT ions WiT h oT her ea CC Robin Mearns was able to met with CRES in Hanoi on se CTor sTudy Teams and ban K s Ta f f January 29 to go over the fieldwork and PSD workshop plans in particular. Anne Kuriakose worked closely with The social team has interacted in several ways with the CRES, DRAGON, and Challenge to Change during other EACC sector studies, so that the sectoral teams the week-long Training of Trainers workshop that was and the social team could find areas of mutual interest held the first week of March. Pam McElwee, the inter- to reinforce the others' findings. Our collaboration with national consultant, met with World Bank Vietnam the EACC study sector specialists was intended to help officials during her visit in late March to help facilitate integrate the social and sectoral analyses, particularly for the final national workshop. Other sector consultants identification of adaptation choices valued by different were extended an invitation to the national PSD in communities. Hanoi through the EACC study coordinator, and Mr. Chien from the Forest Science Institute, who was a key First, we interacted with other elements of the EACC leader of the forestry study, was able to attend. study through teleconferences. For example, members of the social team participated in a EACC-wide telecon- Thirdly, we have shared documents closely among the ference on January 13­14 to discuss the emerging find- other EACC sector studies. During the creation of the ings in all the EACC countries. The late start to the social inception report, we drew closely on the draft Vietnam study allowed this country study to benefit analyses that had been produced for the other sector from the comments on the other EACC country work, reports, particularly on the climate forecasting and on including peer-reviewed comments for the social reports the vulnerability analysis done for the various sectors. from the other six study countries. The social team Draft reports from the social team were also shared 40 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m within the EACC team, and valuable comments were Fieldsites cannot be fully representative. Due to financial received from the World Bank Hanoi office in particu- limitations, only a limited number of fieldsites could be lar on the inception report. visited. While we deliberately tried to chose places for fieldwork that could be representative of the general limi TaTions of The sT udy issues facing the regions of Vietnam, the sites chosen ultimately cannot be totally representative of the diver- Like all studies, this EACC social study has had several sity of livelihoods and adaptation possibilities in limitations. Most of these limitations were predicted in Vietnam. Some areas that are likely to be hard hit by advance, however, so we did our best to minimize their climate change in the future but which were not sites of effect on the overall quality of the study. fieldwork include, for example, Ho Chi Minh city. The short time of the study. The EACC study in general Coordination problems. There were also difficulties in and the Vietnam study in particular, were run on a tight coordination between the two main fieldwork teams-- schedule, which meant that not all activities could CRES in the center and north, and DRAGON in the receive as much time as they warranted. The Vietnam south--due to geographic distances, as well as between study was the last social study to be chosen and set up, the fieldwork and the PSD workshops. This prevented and the entire study was to take place in only four the DRAGON and CtC team members from attending months. This meant that all activities had to be the final national workshop. While having only one compressed somewhat, with little time between phases single institution be responsible for the whole study for lengthier analysis or reflections. Fieldwork in partic- would have eliminated these coordination problems, we ular was done with around one week of work at each feel the diversity of approaches that we gained by site; obviously a more lengthy fieldwork phase would having three disparate groups together work on the have been able to collect more in-depth information. project made up for the challenges of this approach. 41 4. fieldWorK resulTs household member in Dien Binh earned three times as much from agriculture compared with a household member in Dak Tram. The reason is that in Dien Binh overvieW and inT roduCT ion To ar e a s each house has at least one ha of rubber plantation and of i nvesTiGaTion also coffee plantations. Meanwhile the main sources of income of households in Dak Tram are from rice, Field research took place in several regions of the coun- cassava and corn, all low-value crops. One significant try in provinces that the social team felt were usefully problem for some subsistence farmers is the practice of representative of the climate issues facing that region. selling unripe paddy to Kinh traders for half of the price Each of the regions had particular existing vulnerabili- for harvested rice so they can be fronted cash for inputs ties to climate changes that are likely to become increas- early in the season. Thus, the poorest households often ingly important into the future. The fieldsites and end up earning half of the money that they should have, vulnerability to climate in each area are indicated in thereby increasing their vulnerability. table 16 below. Almost all households in both communes did not keep existing livelihood systems in the sites any livestock. The reasons were two-fold. First, they did not know how to keep them, and second, they did not Kon Tum. The local people's livelihoods in Kon Tum are have capital sources to invest in animal pens and feed. not diverse and are mainly dependent on rainfed agri- The next large source of income for the average house- culture. The major crops grown in this area are primar- hold member in Dak Tram was from government sala- ily cassava for subsistence, with only a little rice, corn, ries and other sources of non-farm income. and rubber for supplemental income. In areas with better access to Hwy 14, rubber plantations are found Quang Nam. Bai Huong is one of four villages of Tan on almost 25 percent of the land area, with coffee and Hiep commune on the Cu Lao Cham islands, with a litsea being the second most important crops. Cassava total area of 1,700m2 and a population of 410 people. and rice are also grown for subsistence in cash crop The main income source is coastal fishing. According to areas. The majority of the residents of the study sites the village head, 90 percent of the households live off were ethnic minorities; in Dak Tram, the Xe Dang the coastal fishery, while 10 percent of the households accounted for 94 percent of the population and the own small shops. People mainly go fishing twice a day remaining were Kinh, while in Dien Binh, the Xe Dang in a fishing area more than 3 km away from the coast. accounted for 63 percent and Ro Ngao for 37 percent. An Thang ward is one of five divisions of Minh An Livelihoods in Kon Tum appear strongly influenced by commune of Hoi An city, with 1,350 people (282 geographical location, with poorer areas being more households). The An Thang living quarter is located remote from roads and markets. On average each among the main roads of Hoi An city and fronting 42 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 16. ComParison of siTes for field researCh Selected site Features/ rationale Existing vulnerabilities to climate change Central Coastal Region, Quang Nam Province hoi An city Urban area, people live mainly on · the rise of water level from river causes floods every year that tourism services reduces the income source from tourist services. · storms cause damage to unstable houses. diseases after floods and storms threaten local people's health, especially children, pregnant women, and old people cu lao cham island fishing community, people have no · storms and tornados affect fishing activities and damage boats land for agriculture and houses. · tidal flooding also causes damage to houses and fishing nets. · Rainfall affects houses located around the mountains. · drought causes lack of clean water for poor families Central Highlands Region, Kon Tum Province dak tram commune Ethnic minority people, far from · flash floods and drought affect farming activities and damage roads, reliant on subsistence houses agriculture dien Binh commune Ethnic minority people, nearer road · flash floods and drought affect farming activities and damage (hwy 14) and with more cash crop houses production, like coffee. Northern Mountains Region, Ha giang Province thai An commune, Quan hmong people, remote from roads, · droughts cause limited access to drinking and agricultural water. Ba district living on steep slopes near the · flash floods strike highland areas and cause damage to homes. chinese border · cold spells kill livestock and cause illnesses tan trinh commune, Kinh and ethnic minorities living · droughts cause limited access to drinking and agricultural water Quang Binh district nearer lowland areas and closer to · flash floods wash down to lowland areas and cause damage to roads homes and deposit sand on fields. Mekong Delta Region, bac lieu Province & Can Tho City long dien commune, shrimp farmers, rice producers, · Extreme weather events, such as out-of-season rain, irregularly dong hoi district small scale traders. hot days, high differences in air temperature between day and night, whirlwinds, and sea level rise all affect local livelihoods long dien tay commune, salt producers, shrimp farmers and · Extreme weather events, such as out-of-season rain, irregularly dong hoi district fishers, including Khmer people hot days, high differences in air temperature between day and night, whirlwinds, and sea level rise all affect local livelihoods can tho city, ninh Kieu day laborers, traders, informal · increasingly hot days, extreme events like flooding and long-term ward sector workers events like sea level rise affect city-dwellers Table 17. averaGe sourCes of livelihood in Kon Tum, Per household Dak Tram Dien Binh Sources of income 2009 % 2009 % crops 1,093,043 49.3 3,350,253 96.8 livestock 34783 1.6 30303 0.9 Aquaculture 0 0.0 0 0.0 other activities (trading, handicrafts, etc) 14609 0.6 13485 0.4 Wages/pensions/salary 1,074,957 48.5 66666 1.9 Remittances 0 0.0 0 0.0 totAl average hh income from all sources 2,217,392 100.0 3,460,707 100.0 Source: household survey. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 43 along the Thu Bon river bank. Providing services for households in this community, especially for the house- tourists (shop keeping, restaurants, etc) is the main holds that have a large house located along the main economic activity of households in Hoi An. Hoi An roads, to have higher incomes in comparison to nearby attracts tourists with its cultural heritage; therefore rural fishing communities. households with traditional wooden houses have more chance to improve their economic status as they can get The household survey shows that the average income of money from selling tickets for tourists or open shops in a household in An Thang in Hoi An is much higher their houses. In general the living facilities in Hoi An than that in Bai Huong fishing village. There is also a are good, with 100 percent of households there having large income disparity among households in both access to electricity and clean water. This allows the communities, with the rich households earning 10 times or more than the poorest ones (in An Thang, 250 million for the richest household and only 20 million for the poorest; in Bai Huong, 53 million for the richest household and only 15 million for the poorest) (Table fiGure 11. TradiTional Wooden house in 18). hoi an A comparison of the livelihoods of different income classes in the two fieldsites in Quang Nam is presented below. Ha Giang. The villagers of Thai An and Tan Trinh depend on various sources of income, primarily from crop production, livestock, aquaculture, and non-farm activities. As a better-off commune, Tan Trinh villagers, located nearer to lowlands, can generate twice as much income (more than 35 million VND) compared to that in Thai An, in the highlands (around 16 million VND). Tan Trinh villagers appear to be more diversified with more than one source of income to depend on, while in Thai An, livestock is the most important source with Table 18. averaGe sourCes of livelihood in quanG nam, Per household An Thang Bai Huong Sources of income 2009 % 2009 % fishing 0.0 0.0 95,975,000 83.56 livestock 0.0 0.0 550,000 0.48 Aquaculture 0.0 0.0 150,000 0.13 other activities (trading, handicrafts, etc) 2,019,047.6 2.78 5,100,000 4.44 services 66,690,476.0 91.73 9,757,500 8.50 Wages/pensions/salary 676,190.48 0.93 0 0.0 Remittances 3,314,285.7 4.56 350,000 0.30 totAl average hh income from all sources 72,700,000.0 100.0 114,861,447 100.0 Source: household survey. 44 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 19. Class differenCes in quanG nam livelihoods and asseTs Estimated Percentage Housing, Estate and savings Income activities of Total HH An Bai Huong Thang (Island Types Bai Huong (Island Fishing An Thang (Hoi Bai Huong (Island (Hoi An Fishing of HH An Thang (Hoi An City) Village) An City) Fishing Village) City) Village) Rich · large house none · garment and · none 2 0 · Wide front side export textile · own multiple houses · hotel located in main streets · Big restaurant such as Bach dang, · cafeteria tran phu · Run their own business with more than 10 employees · own expensive car Better ­ · Average size house · have houses in mainland · lantern shops · traders (fish, 30 10 hhs off · on the main roads · modern home facilities · souvenir lobster for (9.6%) · Run own business with · have relatives in shops export) less than 10 employees mainland · Restaurants · husband goes or give house for rent · house with flat roof fishing and wife · have children at the stays at home to university level run small shop middle · small size house · modern home facility · Work as small · fishing 50 60 hhs income · on the small roads · house with corrugated shop keepers · Running small (57.6%) · Run small business iron roof · Wage labor shops · from 0.8 to 1 million · debt under 5 million Vnd Vnd income per capita near · small and not solid · house with concrete · manual wage · fishing 8 17 hhs poor house walls, corrugated iron labor (16.3%) · on narrow roads away roof. · street vendors from main center · debt ( 5­10 million Vnd) · income is under · take out loans for buying 600,000 Vnd per capita food (200,000­500.000 per month Vnd/month) poor · none · non-concrete house (wall none · small fishing none 10 hhs made by corrugated iron · collecting (9.6%) sheets) firewood and · floor made by cement forest · lack of labor vegetables for · loans for buying food selling 500­1 million Vnd/ month Source: focus group discussion and key informants interviews. more than 60 percent of household income. Although (good soil and good seawater quality are necessary), the table shows that non-farm activities generate 19 extensive shrimp cultivation (30 percent), intensive percent of income for Thai An household, it should be shrimp cultivation (15 percent), cash crops (5 percent), noted that most of this amount comes from govern- and other activities (10 percent). Remittances, wages, ment support for household loss and damage caused by and pensions also provide good supplements to the a flash flood in 2008. farm-based incomes. The incomes of households in the Mekong Delta fieldsites were considerably higher than Bac Lieu. Livelihoods in the studied areas of the other rural regions, with an average income of 45 Mekong Delta are a combination of aquaculture, agri- million VND. culture, salt production, and other sources of on and off- farm income. In one village (Bien Dien) of Long Dien Can Tho. The main sources of income in the researched Tay, income comes primarily from salt production (40 ward are trading, services (such as food processing or percent) on farms that have favorable natural conditions motorbike repair), wage labor (bricklayers, waitresses, d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 45 Table 20. averaGe sourCes of livelihood in ha GianG, Per household Thai An uplands Tan Trinh lowlands Sources of income 2009 % 2009 % crops 2,650,000 16.5 12,780,000 36.0 livestock 10,256,250 64.0 15,376,000 43.4 Aquaculture 25,000 0.2 633,333 1.8 other activities (trading, handicrafts, etc) 3,090,625 19.3 6,677,333 18.8 Wages/pensions/salary 936,666 5.4 930,167 2.5 services 533,333 3.0 180,000 0.5 Remittances 0 0.0 500,000 1.3 totAl average hh income from all sources 16,021,875 100.0 35,466,667 100.0 Source: household survey. Table 21. averaGe sourCes of livelihood in baC lieu, Per household Long Dien Commune Long Dien Tay Commune Sources of income 2009 % 2009 % crops 7,066,667 10.1 1,500,000 0.9 livestock 5,000,000 7.1 8,666,667 5.3 Aquaculture 12,420,000 17.7 53,000,000 32.6 salt production 0 0.0 61,111,111 37.6 other activities (trading, handicrafts, etc) 800,000 1.1 10,000,000 6.1 Wages/pensions/salary 11,900,000 17.0 21,000,000 12.9 pensions 8,100,000 11.6 4,451,250 2.7 Remittances 24,833,333 35.4 3,000,000 1.8 totAl average hh income from all sources 25,005,000 100.0 69,615,250 100.0 Source: household survey. etc), and handicrafts (such as embroidery). Most house- Quang Nam. The most important physical asset of holds in Can Tho do not have agricultural land or households in Hoi An city are houses, which are valued livestock. depending on their location along roadways. The houses located along the main roads and next to the river have household asset bases much higher value than others in small and narrow roads. The owners of these houses can run their own Kon Tum. In both communes 100 percent of sampled economic activities--such as a souvenir shop, a restau- households owned their houses (all one-storied), rant, a hotel, a garment shop, or a cafeteria--or they can although the quality of construction of houses varied rent their houses to others to get monthly rental considerably. In both communes, no household owned a income. The households living in the narrow and small car, although the majority did have at least one lanes do not have this advantage. Thus the location of motorbike. housing is a major contributor to income disparities 46 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 22. sourCes of livelihood in Can Table 24. The value of housinG in minh Tho, Per household an Commune Ninh Kieu ward Tran Bach Hai Ba Small Phu Dang Trung roads (no Sources of income 2009 % Housing and location street street street name) Agriculture/livestock 0 0.0 Renting price (million 30 27 20 0.7 Vnd/month/m2) Wage labor 12,400,000 23.8 selling price (thousand 20 18 16 2 services/processing 26,600,000 50.9 Vnd/m2) trading 7,000,000 13.4 Source: Group discussion. pensions 1,800,000 3.4 Remittances 1,200,000 2.3 other 1,175,000 2.3 households in Hoi An have their children abroad or totAl average hh income 52,175,000 100.0 from all sources their relatives live in China, America, Canada, or other European countries, who sent a large amount of money source: household survey. back to Hoi An. Some households get substantial investments from their relatives to undertake big busi- ness investments, such as international tourist agencies between households in the tourism community; while or opening chains of restaurants, hotels, and resorts. the rich households can have real estate and savings These households are the richest in Hoi An. worth many millions of VND, the poor ones may only have only a few million VND. The savings of households in Cu Lao Cham are mainly from fishing activities. Since the early 2000s, the house- Household savings are also an important financial asset. holds that invested in buying fishing nets and good In both Hoi An and Cu Lao Cham, the sources of boats could improve their fishing. The last few years, household savings mostly come from household income, the price of seafood was high so that these households but there is also another important source, remittances had good incomes and substantial savings. These house- of household members, especially in Hoi An. As the holds could buy houses in the mainland or invest in the former international sea port of Vietnam, with some old education of their children. Remittance is also a source families originating from China and Japan, some of income and savings in Cu Lao Cham since in many households, there are only husband and wife living together, as their children have gone to the mainland to find a job there. These remittances are not as high as Table 23. TyPes of asseTs in Kon Tum the foreign remittances in Hoi An. Dien Binh Dk Trm Status of the house # % # % Ha Giang. Thai An commune is composed mostly of permanent with flat concrete 1 5 2 9.5 Hmong people and they have their house made of dirt to roof keep them warm in the winter and cool in the summer. permanent (e.g. all walls are 15 75 13 62 Most of them rate their houses as semi-permanent (53 made of brick or strong wood) percent) or not permanent (20 percent). The majority of semi permanent (e.g. part of 2 10 2 9.5 wall is brick, & other is wood) Tan Trinh villagers are Tay and most of them (50 stilt house 1 5 1 4.8 percent) live in traditional houses on stilts, which they other 1 5 3 14.2 consider as not permanent. But more and more house- holds now build concrete houses to avoid and lessen the total 20 100 21 100 damage caused by tornados and flash floods. More than Motorbike Ownership 13 72.2 10 76.9 30 percent of the interviewed households in Tan Trinh Source: household survey, 2010. report that they now live in concrete houses. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 47 Bac Lieu: Most of the houses of respondents are Table 25. TyPe of housinG in Thai an and located near rivers or along roads. In terms of housing, Tan Trinh Commune house type 2 (cement walls, tile roof, and lasting for about 5­15 years) is the most common, while the rest Thai An Tan Trinh are living in house type 1 (cement walls, brick roof, and # % # % lasting for above 15 years). In Long Dien Tay village, permanent (e.g. all wall are 4 26.7 5 31.2 poorer quality house type 3 (brick walls, tile roof, and made of brick or strong wood) lasting above 3­5 years) was also encountered. In Long semi-permanent (e.g. part of 8 53.3 3 18.8 wall is brick, & other is wood) Dien village, about 60­65 percent of houses of respon- not permanent (e.g. no brick, 3 20.0 8 50.0 dents have sanitary latrines, and the rest have tempo- but only wood or bamboo) rary toilets. Most households interviewed (80­90 total 15 100.0 16 100.0 percent) use deep well water, and 10­20 percent use tap water for household consumption. Still, about 20­60 Source: household survey, march 2010. Table 26. household asseTs in baC lieu Long Dien village Long Dien Tay village Frequency (%) Frequency (%) house type type 1 4 20 4 20 type 2 16 80 13 65 type 3 3 15 total 20 100 20 100 toilet type temporary toilet 7 35 8 40 sanitary latrine 13 65 12 60 total 20 100 20 100 source of drinking water deep well 18 90 16 80 tap water 2 10 4 20 total 20 100 20 100 source of bathing water deep well 18 90 16 80 tap water 2 10 4 20 total 20 100 20 100 Water supply problem shortage in dry season 4 20 13 65 salinity contaminated water 16 80 7 35 total 20 100 20 100 Electricity status Available 19 95 20 100 Other Assets Auto 1 1 motorbike 17 17 Bike 5 2 motorboat 1 Boat 5 pump 7 18 Source: household survey. 48 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m percent of households interviewed are faced with short- for more than 15 years) in the households interviewed. ages of freshwater in the dry season, and 35­80 percent About 55 percent of households interviewed had a sani- use saline-contaminated water for household tary latrine, 40 percent had a temporary toilet, and 1 consumption. household still used an outdoor fish-pond for a toilet. All households interviewed in An Lac ward directly Can Tho. Houses of households interviewed were rather accessed tap water for both drinking and bathing deliv- small, with an average of about 48 m2 /house or 8.8 m2 ered by the Can Tho Water Supply Company. In terms /person (low compared to the nationwide average of of electricity, 100 percent of households interviewed had 18.6 m2 / person) because land values are rather high in access to electricity. this area (about 13 million VND/m2). The average elevation of the floor of households interviewed is about resource access and land Tenure 0.3 m above ground, making flooding a problem. Most of the households interviewed (65 percent) were also Kon Tum. In Kon Tum, there is a distinct difference located along the river, where there is a problem with between the two communes with regard to both culti- riverbank erosion. The other households (35 percent) vated land and residential land. In general, land hold- are located in depression areas that are affected by river ings per person in total in Dien Binh were twice as floods. In terms of the house type, 60 percent of house- much if compared with those of Dak Tram, although holds interviewed had a simple house (type 4, made irrigated lands only were more closely equal, if small, in from Nipa palm leaves), 30 percent had a type 3 house both areas. Additionally, despite being located in the (brick walls, tile roof ), and 10 percent had a type 2 Central Highlands and surrounded by forest land, no house (cement walls, tile roof ). There were no high- households in either site had tenure rights to nearby quality type 1 houses (cement walls, brick roof, lasting forests, which remain managed by the state. Table 27. livinG CondiTions of households in Can Tho An Lac Ward Type of equipments and facilities Details Frequency (%) house type type 1 0 0 type 2 2 10 type 3 6 30 type 4 12 60 total 20 100 toilet type fish-pond toilet 1 5 temporary toilet 8 40 sanitary latrine 11 55 total 20 100 source of drinking water deep well 0 0 tap water 20 100 total 20 100 source of bathing water deep well 0 0 tap water 20 100 total 20 100 Electricity status Available 20 100 Source: household survey. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 49 Table 28. land TyPe and oWnershiP Per CaPiTa by Commune in Kon Tum, 2009 Cultivation land Cultivation land Residential Cultivation land with irrigation without Forest land Aqua- Commune land (m2) (m2) (m2) irrigation (m2) (m2) culture (m2) Total (m2) dien Binh 279.2 4,612 525 4,216 0 0 9,633 dak tram 149.3 2,251 402 1,848 0 2 4,652 Source: household survey, 2010. Quang Nam. In terms of natural resources, although the may result in long-term benefits in the protection of two researched communities are quite different, one breeding grounds for fish, in the short term the demar- being an urban area and the other a fishing village, they cation of the MPA project has limited access to fishing do have in common the fact that they do not own agri- resources. cultural land, even gardens, for raising any cattle or pigs. Additionally, besides the fishing restrictions, forests Because private land ownership (besides residential surrounding the Bai Huong village are classified as homes) in these Quang Nam communities is limited, watershed forests by the government, so people are not these households are more dependent on access rather allowed to cut down any trees. The villagers can only than ownership of resources. But when access to forest collect firewood and vegetables such as non­timber land and other resources are limited, this can make forest products. In the past, about 4 households had rice people become more vulnerable to extreme weather fields in this area claimed by their ancestors. However, events because it can be hard to recover from climate since 2005, they stopped cultivating since they were told losses due to the unavailability of livelihood alternatives. the agricultural chemicals can contaminate the streams, The Cu La Cham islands are a good example of this which are the drinking water source for whole village. situation. For a rural community like Bai Huong, living in the area with forests but not having them available for Among the 96 households in Bai Huong village, there exploitation, and with no area for agricultural cultiva- are only 8 households newly engaged in tourism activi- tion, has made people more dependent on fishing, their ties but who are still engaged in fishing or run small only source of livelihood. shops, while the remaining 88 households depend on fishing in the common fishing plots surrounding the Ha Giang. The most important resource to households islands near their village. Since the establishment of a in Ha Giang is land, for which all households reported marine protected area (MPA) in Bai Huong in the past land tenure certificates. As determined by topographical few years, the fishers have no permission to fish at those conditions, land area per household is different in the areas where coral reefs exist. This means that, while it two communes. Thai An villagers (the mountainous Table 29. land TyPe and oWnershiP Per CaPiTa by Commune in quanG nam, 2009 Residential land (m2) House (m2) Mean Maximum Minimum Mean Maximum Minimum Village An thang 121 400 24 126 400 24 Bai huong 93 200 0 93 200 0 Source: household surveys, march 2010. 50 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m box 2. resTriCTions on resourCe aCCess means inCreased vulnerabiliTy in The shorT Term for some poor families, since there is not much agricultural production in Bai huong, vegetables and fruits are brought from the mainland so that the price is at least twice as high as it is in the center of hoi An. therefore collecting vegetables from the forest is a good source of income and contributes to the nutrition in their meals. firewood collecting is also one source of income. the price depends on the weight (25,000 Vnd ­ 30,000 Vnd for a big bundle of 25 kg, 20,000Vnd for a small bundle of 20kg). however, firewood can only be sold within the island and people are not allowed to take it to the mainland for selling. this means that the income from firewood selling is small; locally speaking, "it just helps a little to cover the cost of salt or fish-sauce." other restrictions on resource use on cu lao cham island include caves, where swallows come and make nests near the village. it is said that the quality of the nest is very good. however, the birds' nests are under management of a state company and no local people are allowed to collect this special, high-value product. there are even guards equipped with guns to patrol and watch the cave in order not to allow any local people to collect illegally. said one elderly woman in Bai huong, "in the past, those bird's nests were collected and exploited by the southern government, but local people still could come there to glean the ones left over. After 1975, this cave was managed by the national government, and at that time it started to become more diffi- cult to collect nests, but we still could collect the nests. since the late 1990s and from 2000 up to now, the cave was watched very carefully, and local people could not come to collect the nests any more. if any one comes, they can be shot." commune) have a larger total land area, of which more An. Tan Trinh also has more fishponds than Thai An, than two-thirds is forest land. Cultivated land is only thus more households in the commune raise fish or one-third, of which the land area without irrigation is aquaculture products. Due to different topographical almost double the area that is irrigated (Table 30). In conditions, access to water in Thai An commune is Tan Trinh, the lowland commune, forest land also takes rather limited. As shown in Table 30, more than 73 more than half of the land area (55.5 percent), although percent of cultivation area in Thai An is not irrigated, its ratio is smaller than that of Thai An. while only 10 percent of Tan Trinh has to depend on rainfed water . The number of households that have 50 Water is another important resource to households in percent and more land area being irrigated in Tan Trinh the highland area. Tan Trinh people in the lowlands (37 percent) is much larger than that of Thai An (13 have more irrigated land than those higher up in Thai percent) ]. This makes Thai An more vulnerable to long-term changes in precipitation, although even the irrigated lands of the lowlands can also be vulnerable to events like extended drought. Table 30. land oWned by households in Bac Lieu. The average farm size of respondents in Long ha GianG Dien village is about 10,000 m2 (1 ha), of which, 6,830 m2 is used for shrimp farming, 1,250 m2 used for rice Thai An Tan Trinh production, and the rest used for residential and fruit % hh % hh tree gardens. The average land value is about 300 m2 land m2 land million VND per ha. In Long Dien Tay village, the Residential land, 347 0.9 1,575 13.1 including garden average farm size of respondents is about 19,000 m2 (1.9 cultivation/farmland 3,133 8.5 1,663 13.8 ha), of which 14,000 m2 is used for shrimp farming, with irrigation system 1,700 m2 is used for residential and fruit tree gardens, cultivation/farmland 6,820 18.6 1,243 10.3 and the rest used for other purposes. The average land without irrigation system value is about 79 million VND per ha. While respon- forest land 26,160 71.3 6,687 55.5 dents in Long Dien Tay village have more land than Aquaculture 40 0.1 883 7.3 those in Long Dien village, land in Long Dien is higher other lands 200 0.5 0 0.0 priced because of its easy access. Total 3.67 ha 100.0 1.21 ha 100.0 Can Tho. Being in an urban setting, households in Can Source: household survey. Tho had only residential land and houses, and no d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 51 Table 31. land use TyPes and value in baC lie Long Dien Long Dien Tay Total Village Mean Mean Mean home area (m2) 2,128 1,252 1,690 home value (Vnd) 63,827,000 37,545,000 50,686,000 fruit orchard area (m2) 15 165 90 fruit orchard value (Vnd) 450,000 4,950,000 2,700,000 Rice area (m )2 1,250 ­ 625 Rice land value (Vnd) 37,500,000 ­ 18,750,000 Aquacultural area (m2) 6,830 21,175 14,003 Aquacultural areas value (Vnd) 204,900,000 521,364,000 363,132,000 other land area (m ) 2 100 5,300 2,700 other land area value (Vnd) 3,000,000 84,075,000 43,537,500 total land (m2) 10,323 27,892 19,107 total land value (Vnd) 309,677,000 647,934,000 478,805,500 Average land value (Vnd/ha) 300,004,464 255,655,648 277,830,056 Source: household survey. agricultural or other lands available to them. Ten Ketsana in 2009. The poverty rates are closely linked to percent of households interviewed were functionally the fact that both areas are primarily ethnic minority landless. communities, with farmers who depend on natural resources management for their livelihoods. Other i ndi C aTors of v ulnerabiliT y sources of vulnerability were the elderly, women, chil- dren, and those with low education (also linked to Kon Tum. Hunger and poverty rates were key indicators poverty). The extreme nature of poverty can be seen in a of vulnerability in Kon Tum. The poor in Dien Binh wealth ranking done by members of Dien Bien commune account for 62 percent, while it is 40 percent commune, where even households considered to be in Dak Tram. While the hunger rate is the same for the "average" in income often suffered food shortages two two communes, accounting for 10 percent, the situation months out of the year. has become worse due to the impacts of Typhoon Quang Nam. An Thang is in a coastal area and Bai Huong on an island, so the exposure level to storms of these areas is very high. The increasing intensity of Table 32. land oWned by households in storms, and changes in their direction and seasonality, Can Tho have caused problems for these communities in coping and adapting, and mean that physical exposure is the Ninh Kieu ward primary indicator of vulnerability. In Hoi An city's An m2 % hh land Thang area, physical location near the Thu Bon River Residential land area 48 90 in certain low-lying streets was the primary source of landless 10 vulnerability (Figure 12). In Bai Huong on Cu Lao Average land value (Vnd) 816,666,667 Cham island, besides storms, local people also suffered Total 100.0 from high waves that made water overflow into their houses. When it rains heavily, the water flow from the 52 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 33. WealTh ranKinG CriTeria in dien binh Commune What % of HH in Type of HH this community? Main assets Main income sources Well-off 2.4 · have 7­8 cattle · from rubber, rice, corn and cassava · have permanent house with flat concrete roof · have sufficient food to eat · have a tV, motorbike, water pumping machine · have a modern toilet in the house · Rubber trees have already produced latex · have no refrigerator Average 21 · Working hard and do not borrow money from anyone · Know how to apply farming · have 3 cattle technology · permanent house with tile roof · do not have sufficient food to eat for · have a tV, motorbike, water pumping machine. 2 months/year · have children go to school · have 3 laborers · Rubber trees have not produced latex yet poor 66.6 · do not have sufficient labor · do not have food to eat for 6 · suffer from a shortage of labor and cultivation land months/year · have many children who are in the age of schooling · lack capital sources · have sick or weak elderly household members · Engage in wage labor · do not have a motorbike · Rubber trees have not produced latex yet hungry 10 · do not have enough food to eat for the whole year · Engage in wage labor · do not know how to calculate · do not have food to eat for 12 · Already sold their cultivation land to better households months/year · have weak and sick members or are newly separated households Source: focus groups discussion. mountains toward the sea meets the water flow from clothes spreads colds and flu among all the poor villag- the sea in surges. Therefore, situated in the middle of ers. Children quit school and have to sit around the fire these two water flows, local people's houses are often at home to keep warm. Extended cold spells have bad flooded. Physical vulnerability often goes along with impacts on livestock, causing great loss to better-off poverty, as the poor and near-poor usually own more households that have big herds of buffaloes. unstable houses with less value. Once storms or floods occur, they are the most affected since they have trouble recovering from the loss and can often face bankruptcy. fiGure 12. vulnerabiliTy maP develoPed The field discussions also revealed that the aged, chil- by loCal PeoPle in an ThanG dren, and sick people are those who are vulnerable to extreme weather events. They need support from government or their children/parents, relatives, and neighbors. In extreme events, they totally depend on those support sources. Ha Giang. Group discussions and household interviews revealed that different types of climate-change induced events have affected different groups of people. The common denominator was vulnerability, primarily related to health risks of climate impacts. For example, cold spells have strong impacts on the elderly and chil- dren as they get sick easily with lots of diseases of the respiratory system, and suffering from lack of warm d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 53 Water stress is also related to health issues. In recently years, drought has affected the spring rice and corn box 3. The imPaCT of WaTer sTress in crops, as well as resulting in a shortage of drinking ha GianG water for people living in higher locations. The lack of water causes diseases among women and is very diffi- lo thi may's household needs 40 liters of water every day for cook- cult for mothers who just gave birth. In the morning, ing, washing (not bathing) for six people, and feeding eleven chick- villagers have to stand in line to get water (each house- ens and one buffalo. two of her children (one six-year old boy and one eight- year-old girl) are assigned to fetch water for the family. hold can only have 1 can of 2 liters) for household use. Each carries a plastic can of 10 liters and walks 3 kilometers to get Thus, households that lack labor can't get water. water every day. Without water, their food is not washed, causing diseases to the intestinal system. The commune had a record number of cases of diarrhea two years ago due to lack of water. Without water, fire also easily burns non-permanent houses or houses that are located along down houses during the dry season; traditional houses roads. with thatch roof and houses-on-stilts are easily exposed to fire. Bac Lieu. The vulnerable populations in the Mekong Delta were primarily those households with livelihoods Flash floods are detrimental to those who live near most dependent on natural resources: shrimp farmers, streams and have fields near streams. Quan Ba has fishers, or rice farmers. Livelihoods of people are partic- nearly 20 percent of the total households living near ularly vulnerable to changes in surface water for shrimp and along streams and these suffer from flash floods farming, livestock diseases, and sudden weather changes yearly. Tornados often cause damage to those who have (Table 34). Table 34. risKs, vulnerabiliTy, and adaPTaTion measures in binh dien hamleT of baC lieu Main climate risks Most vulnerable group Adaptation measure drought Vegetable farmers plant drought-tolerant varieties irregular/or out-of-season rain salt farmers n/A Extreme high air temperature Vegetable farmers improve irrigation system Water pollution and diseases shrimp farmers dredging canals, remove pond sediment, improve culture techniques Table 35. main risKs for WaGe-labor-dePendenT households in an laC Ward Most Organization Level of Compared to 5 vulnerable helping in Main risk seriousness Frequency years ago group Adaptation measure? adaptation prices going up 1 1 more than past poor people · Using cheap goods no · Reducing expenses for coffee, cigarettes Extreme 2 2 more than past poor people · Use air conditioning, fans no temperature River flood 3 3 more than past poor people · construct high front on no house · Removing garbage, sediment in drainage system 54 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Can Tho. Poverty is the main measure of vulnerability Poverty also must be understood as a relative measure. among surveyed households in Can Tho. Extreme For example, in Hoi An city, most households are very temperatures (hotter weather), and river floods (house well-off compared to the poor households of Kon Tum, flooded during extreme spring tide by river water mixed but even in Hoi An there are people who are not doing with waswater from drainage system) are the main risks as well as others. Group discussion results in Hoi An for households in An Lac ward, who make their living showed that there are no officially "poor" households, primarily from wage labor. according to the formal government standard. Instead, local people called the poorest households those house- Cross-Cutting vulnerable Groups holds who "still have difficulties in bread-winning." About 18 percent of households in An Thang are in While there were specific vulnerable populations in this category. The average income per capita of this type each of the fieldsites visited, there were some cross- of household is under 600,000 VND (equivalent to cutting groups of vulnerable populations found in each $33) per month. These households either go selling fieldsite. foods or other products in streets or have to go to work for wage labor such as making lamps or handicrafts. The Poor. Poverty is closely linked to climate vulnerabil- ity in Vietnam. In every fieldsite, the poor were singled Just as in Hoi An's An Thang ward, where no house- out as households being both more vulnerable to hold is officially poor, across the bay in Cu Lao Cham climate events--such as living in poorer quality housing, island, there are no households considered to be rich. In or farming in more marginal lands--as well as having the Bai Huong fishing communities, the concept of "the less capacity to respond and cope with these events; for rich" does not exist. In the local people's thinking, in example, having less access to financial services to this community, there only exist better-off, the middle rebuild livelihoods, or being less likely to have sufficient income, the near-poor, and the poor. For the fishing social connections to start a new businesses. The vulner- communities, the "poor" are defined as those households ability of the poor to climate events can be seen in data lacking labor, households with sick people or aged from the Red River Delta collected by CRES in 2009. households, or households with houses made of corru- There, poor households experienced the greatest gated iron sheets and a cement floor. amount of relative damage to their livelihoods, losing 65 percent of their livestock incomes and 70 percent of Similarly, in Ha Giang, there are no rich households in crop incomes, compared to the rich, who lost 35 percent the surveyed highland areas, and only around 5 percent and 33 percent respectively. of households in the lowlands are considered rich. But there is a big gap between the two areas in the ratio of Table 36. vulnerabiliTy To flood damaGe in The red river delTa, 2009 Relative Relative Crop damage Property damage Livestock damage Livestock Cropping Time to recover (absolute (Absolute value (Absolute value in damage (% damage (% (days) value in VND) in VND) VND) change) change) poor (n=100) 367 1,666,495 1,638,387 ($91) 868,186 ­65 ­70.5 ($92) ($48) middle (n=100) 298 1,449,141 281,739 1,429,326 ­31 ­37 ($81) ($15) ($79) Rich (n=100) 458 3,572,817 2,430,430 ($135) 5,352,248 ($297) ­35 ­33 ($198) significance * (p=.034) (p=.120) **(p=.000) (p=.312) ** (p=0.001) Source: Cres unpublished data, 2009. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 55 poor and non-poor households. Only one-third of the less nutritious food so that the rest of the family does households in the highland area reached the "non-poor" not go without. category, and two-thirds fell into the "poor" category. But it is quite the opposite in the lowland area, where Even in areas with male-dominated occupations, two-thirds of the households fell into the non-poor women are still at risk. In the fishing community of Bai category. In Ha Giang, people stated that the main Huong in Quang Nam, households at first did not causes of poverty included: think that women were more vulnerable than men. They said that in storms and floods, both men and · inheritance from previous generations (meaning like women were affected equally, or even that the men were (poor) father, like (poor) son) the most vulnerable to storms since they were fishermen · poor and limited experience in production and had to go fishing. However, in discussion it was · lack of capital investment or ineffective use of loans determined that among 56 small fishing boats in the · no food storage (e.g. no rice until next crop) community, women participated in fishing activities on · sickness causing lack of labor 40 boats, meaning they too were impacted. In fact, the · limited land fisherwomen have to do more work compared to non- · damage/loss caused by hazards fishing women and even in comparison to their husbands (Table 37). The last of these causes for poverty is directly linked to climate issues. To the villagers in Tan Trinh, apart from Female-headed households are also particularly sensitive serious sickness, hazard damage is the most fatal cause to extreme weather events. Many of those women are for poverty in the commune. According to them, most widows, so they have to do all work by themselves if poor households used to be non-poor and they are poor they do not have nearby relatives. In storms, they defi- now because they couldn't recover from their losses nitely need support from outsiders, such as in battening caused by flash floods in 2008 and their crops in 2009 down houses, bringing in livestock, and protecting food were unproductive due to serious drought. During the supplies. Even in their daily livelihoods outside of group discussions, households talked about how easily extreme events, these female-headed households often "non-poor" households can slip into the "poor" category have difficult lives, having to juggle multiple income- in the case of climate events. Apart from such other making activities as the sole breadwinner for the house causes as constant expenditure on children's education, (Table 38). lack of land (such as in newlywed couples and immi- grants), drought and hazard damage were brought up again and again as a main cause of poverty. Table 37. daily aCTiviTies of a TyPiCal Women. The discussions with women's groups showed fisherWoman they are often severely impacted by climate events. Agriculture in Vietnam is often highly feminized, with Time Activities women playing a more active role in everyday agricul- 3:00 a.m · to get up and prepare drinking water, gasoline, raincoat, food and tobacco tural production. This is also true for other sectors often · go fishing with husband seen as "men's work," but which are increasingly becom- 8:00 a.m · Return home, cook and have meals, clean the ing feminized as well. For example, in storm seasons in house · stitch up or make new fishing net coastal areas, local people have to stay at home more · have a rest often. In some cases, they can only go fishing for 5­6 14 ­ 15 p.m cook and prepare things to go fishing in the days per month. This has a negative influence on their afternoon cash income and puts more burden on women's shoul- 16:00 go fishing with husband ders in terms of taking care of the whole family, and 19:00 Return home, have a rest (watching tV) particularly in finding food for meals. To cope, women 21:00 go to sleep may take on additional laboring activities (wage labor or Source: focus group discussion. home sales and trading), eat less food themselves, or eat 56 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m for the eight months before March 2010. The rainy Table 38. daily aCTiviTies of a Women- season used to start in March but it now shifts to the headed household in bai huonG villaGe, end of April. Water stress has always been a problem in quanG nam the whole province, but it is getting very serious in recent years, said the chairman of the provincial Committee for Time Activities Ethnic Minorities. He said in the past, when the soil was 5am · get up and clean the house fertile and there were not so many people, villagers · make fishing net for selling · go collecting firewood for selling planted only one crop in the spring. Then they spent the (25,000 Vnd ­ 30,000 Vnd for a big rest of their time going to fetch water and collect fuel- bundle of 25 kg, 20,000Vnd for a small bundle of 20kg) wood. But it is serious now because such traditional 11am­12noon · Return home, making fishing net coping systems are no longer effective. Swidden fields are · selling things in small shop · Raising pigs/chicken no longer as productive, as there is no fallow period 15:00pm · cooking dinner under pressure for food to feed a large population. Land · selling things (coffee, food, etc.) in small is getting scarcer, as demands increase for flat land to shop build schools, buildings, and roads. Thus local people 22:00pm go to sleep have to spend most of their time on their fields, and Source: Group discussion, 2010. there is not much time to go fetch water. Water stress is widespread during the dry season, especially in the rocky mountain area. The 2009 report on rice area found that during the winter-spring crop (dry season) in most of the e x PerienCe W iTh PasT ClimaTe districts, the rice growing area has decreased by half, and variabili T y and hazards only half of the planted area was irrigated. Every year, Vietnam loses lives and income to climate The daily temperature is also increasing in Ha Giang. hazards. Coastal areas are threatened yearly by typhoons Many households said that chuoi tieu (small banana) and and storms and losses of life have been in the hundreds rau sam ( small purple wild plants) can grow in the to thousands, costing Vietnam billions of dollars in the district area now and these varieties can grow in warm past decade. The climate events that have most severely temperatures only. The difference in temperature affected the researched fieldsites are explored below. In between nights and days is also larger, and the local Ha Giang, the primary indicators of climate variability people said they now needed a thin blanket at nights and hazards are increasing cold spells during winter, even in the mid-summer. drought during spring and summer, and flash floods in the late summer. In Kon Tum, exposure hazards are Severe and extreme events also seem to be on the rise. effects from coastal storms blowing far inland where The long winter cold spell in 2008, which killed 1,118 they used to not reach (especially Typhoon Ketsana in buffaloes in Quan Ba district and nearly 2,500 in 2009), and droughts in spring. In Quang Nam the main Quang Binh, was also strongly remembered, as were hazards are coastal and river flooding and typhoons in major flooding events in 2008 and 2009, which the fall season. In the Mekong Delta, the main hazards completely destroyed the field crops of many are flooding, increasing salinization of freshwater, and communes. As shown in Table 39, nearly two-thirds of droughts in the dry season. the households in both Thai An and Tan Trinh commune reported that they were hit by climate Ha Giang. Many households across the research areas hazards. said that they believed the climate was already changing. During discussions with focus groups in Ha Giang, Kon Tum. Interviews with key informants and heads of people said there is a significant change in local climate households reveal that in the past it always rained after as the rainy season is shortened and dry season is longer. the Vietnamese New Year, which normally falls at the Households said it used to rain a lot before Tet, but now end of January or in the second week of February, there is much less rain, and in fact there has been no rain according to the Western calendar. By the time the field d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 57 Meanwhile, according to an official of Dak To district, Table 39. households in ha GianG it would take between 2­3 years by machine to clear out exPerienCinG CC-induCed evenTs durinG the sand, but there is no money yet for such activities. The lasT 5 years The impacts to food production were already being felt. The total food production in the commune in 2009 was Types of hazards Thai An (% hh) Tan Trinh (% hh) 691 tons, a decrease of 56 percent compared to 2008. drought 73.3 75.0 heavy rain 66.7 68.8 Quang Nam. Climate vulnerability in the central coast is cold spell 66.7 68.8 primarily related to storms and floods. In case of the landslide 33.3 12.5 tourist service community, the season for foreign tour- tornado 26.7 68.8 ists is from September to March. However, this is also flash flood 6.7 43.8 the time for floods and storms. In the past, floods and hot weather n/A 93.8 storms were few and predicted, so people could prepare for it. But recently those weather phenomena are diffi- Source: household survey, march 2010. cult to forecast, in some cases coming suddenly, which causes a lot of damage and constrains tourist activity. research was being carried out in March 2010, all villag- For example, on September 29, 2009, heavy rains and ers in the two communes complained that it had not high seas flooded a part of Hoi An city up to a depth of rained since September 2009. All paddy fields were dry 1 meter. In terms of occupations, local people in An and crops needed water. Villagers in the two communes Thang tourist communities agreed that the businessmen also experienced a similar severe drought in 2008 from who own big restaurants or big shops are highly sensitive February to May. Crops such as rice, corn, and cassava to these storms and floods. In the case of the sudden were either damaged or decreased their yields. flood in 2009, they were the most affected groups with high losses. In addition, some richer owners do not live Extreme events, like Typhoon Ketsana that hit Kon in this area but just hired the house, so when the flood Tum in fall 2009, have also had a major impact. came suddenly at night, they did not know about it and According to the deputy head of the Kon Tum provin- all their products were wet and ruined. The unusual cial Department of Natural Resources and nature of the 2009 flood was noted by many informants. Environment, it was the heaviest rain ever seen for the Mr. Tung, the chairman of An Thang living quarter, last 100 years. Since natural forests in the province have recalled: "Normally, after storms, there will be no flood. been degraded, all sand, soil, and even forest trees were The flood already came and we thought that we could do swept away and blown into paddy fields, rivers, or lakes business as usual. But at night, the flood came suddenly, located downstream from the typhoon's winds. By the at around 1­2a.m. At that time, people were sleeping and time the field research was being carried out, more than did not know. Therefore, we lost a lot of things. Some 50 percent of some village's paddy fields were still households' property--such as motorbikes, fridge, fabrics, covered with sand, on average 1 meter high and some- etc.--were flooded and ruined." Figure 13 shows that 67 times 2 meters high. According to the Vice percent of households interviewed in Hoi An had more Chairwoman of Dak Tram commune, the commune than 2 meters of water in their houses in 2009. lost 96.9 ha of rice, corn, and cassava land due to the Ketsana typhoon. Six months have passed and only 1.5 The frequency of these flood events also seems to be of out of 96.9 ha have been repaired and tilled for the note to local people (Table 40). In the past 10 years spring crops. The other 95.4 ha is still covered with alone, five major floods have occurred, while only one sand and left idle. Heads of households were asked: flood in the 1960s and one flood in the 1980s were "How long after an extreme climate event do you think remembered as being significant. Seventy percent of your household is able to recover from that event?" All local people in the fishing community (Bai Huong) and respondents in Dak Tram said that it would take them 71 percent of local people in the tourism service their whole life if they repaired their rice fields by hand. community (An Thang) thought that the recent storms 58 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m fiGure 13. PerCenTaGe of hhs exPerienCinG floodinG in quanG nam's 2009 floods Percentage of HH was flooded in Bai Huong Percentage of HH was flooded in An Thang Not Flooded Under 1m Not Flooded 0% 5% 20% Over 2 0% 1­2 m Under 1m 28% 60% 1­2 m 20% Over 2 67% Source: household survey. Table 40. exTreme evenTs in an ThanG residenTial quarTer's hisTory Time (year/ month) Events 1964 Water from thu Bon River rose up to 3 meters, 99 percent of houses were flooded. it caused severe damage to household property such as furniture, clothes, and house roofs, and cattle were swept away. April 1989 Very strong storm occurred and caused damage to houses. Water level reached 2.7m, causing flood for over 70 percent of households. 1999 Water from thu Bon River rose up to 2.5 meters; 90 percent of houses were flooded. people had to stay on the attic or left the house to higher area. 2005 strong storm caused big loss for houses. July 2007 strong storm came and blew away roofs of some houses. people had to closely tie their doors and furniture. the water reached 2.7m, flooding over 70 percent of households. november 2007 heavy rain made the water level of the thu Bon River rise up to 2.5 meters; 80 percent of houses were flooded. tourist activities were delayed. september­october strong storm occurred, blew away roofs of houses in An thang living quarter, and then water of thu Bon rose 2009 unexpectedly at midnight, so people could not do anything. Water reached a height of 2.7 meters, damaged vehicles, fridges, washing machines, etc. and blew away clothes and other handicraft products. the flood lasted one week, which made food in restaurants rotten and caused a big loss in terms of finance. Source: focus group discussion. were more serious, and more than 85 percent thought was 5 to 15 years ago. However, when it does rain, it that the average temperature has increased. rains very heavily. A rise in sea level has also been noted in some areas. Bac Lieu. People participating in group discussions believed that the most noticeable weather change in the Rice, vegetable, crops, livestock, chickens, ducks, and past 10 years was that the overall average temperature shrimp are all vulnerable to these extreme weather was hotter than in the past. The second most commonly events, such as unseasonable rain, irregularly hot days, noted problem was a rise in cyclone/storm activity. high differences in air temperature between day and Others felt that the rainy season is shorter now than it night, whirlwinds, and sea level rise (Table 42). d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 59 Table 41. WeaTher ChanGe in The lasT 10 years PerCeived by loCal PeoPle in baC lieu Long Dien village Long Dien Tay village Total Biggest weather change over past 10 years Frequency Percent Frequency Percent Frequency Percent cold 2 4.5 2 2.7 drought 3 6.8 2 6.9 5 6.8 flood 4 9.1 4 5.5 heavy rain 4 9.1 3 10.3 7 9.6 hotter 19 43.2 20 69.0 39 53.4 Whirlwinds/tornados 11 25.0 4 13.8 15 20.5 total 44 100.0 29 100.0 73 100.0 Table 42. vulnerabiliTies and exTreme WeaTher in baC lieu Extreme Weather Event Vulnerability irregular rain shrimp died, chickens and ducks caught diseases and died, farmers lost their investment; salt pans were diluted, farmers lost their investment irregular hot days Rice died, chickens and ducks caught diseases and died, farmers lost their investment; local people's health also affected high difference in air temperature between day and night Rice and shrimp died, vegetables got diseases/pests Whirlwind houses damaged/destroyed sea level rise Rice fields and shrimp pond flooded, house and properties damaged storm strong winds can blow shrimps and salt away; damaged houses and crops fiGure 14. damaGes from ClimaTe evenTs Source: household survey. 60 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m On left, households in Tan Trinh Ha Giang point out the last 5 years; among them, three households had the height of flash floods to team member Nghiem their house flooded every year in the rainy season with a Phuong Tuyen. On right, wood and timber swept into water depth of 0.1­0.6 m. In An Lac ward, the main the Dak Psi river in Dien Binh commune in Kon Tum natural disasters are flood and whirlwind, so the damage from Ketsana in September 2009 and was still there in caused by these disasters is not significant. A few March 2010. households live along the river bank, their roofs were damaged when the whirlwind occurred. Only 40 Can Tho. Respondents in the research area perceived percent of respondents in this area received an early that in the last 10 years, there were two pronounced warning from public media before the most recent climate signal changes: hotter weather (85 percent) and natural disasters occurred. Most of these households are the flood season is longer (65 percent) (Table 43). interested in this kind of advance weather information Twelve people interviewed (60 percent of respondents) because it can effect their ability to protect their houses. said that their houses have been flooded sometime in According to vendors and traders who participated in a focus group discussion, storms, river floods, extreme temperatures (hot weather), and heavy long rainfall are Table 43. WeaTher ChanGe in The lasT 10 the main risks for traders. Can Tho city was slightly years PerCeived by loCal PeoPle in an affected by Typhoon Durian in 2006. Typhoon Linda laC Ward hit the Mekong in 1997, but Can Tho was barely affected. However, traders still ranked storms as a risk # HH because they saw many storms hitting the central CC signal agreeing % HH agreeing region, and they were afraid that storms will be hotter temperatures 17 85 moving down to the Mekong Delta in the future. flood longer 13 65 River floods were also ranked as serious as they more dry 5 25 flooded houses during the extreme spring tide with more big typhoons 4 20 river water mixed with wastewater from the drainage Rain shorter 3 15 system, making houses dirty and damaged and Rain more heavier 2 10 preventing transportation for selling goods. Long rainy Table 44. risKs To Traders in Can Tho CiTy from ClimaTe evenTs Seriousness Frequency Seriousness Most Organization level (1 = (1 = most level compared vulnerable helping in Main risk most serious) frequent) to 5 years ago group Adaptation measures? adaptation storm 1 4 2 traders · Reinforcing house · Volunteer groups · putting sandbags on · neighbors roofs River flood 2 3 1 traders · Raising house floor · hired workers elevation · neighbors · making high stands for furniture Extreme 4 1 4 traders · Using umbrella when temperature going out (hot weather) · Using fan when staying home heavy long 3 2 3 traders · shielding roof by nylon rainfall sheet · fixing roof leak Source: focus group discussion. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 61 seasons also affected their ability to move around to the past few years. The absolute value of damage in Tan sell goods. Trinh, the better-off commune, was more than 15 million VND, almost double that in Thai An, the An overall summary of the main climate hazards poorer commune. The weight of each sector is also currently affecting the fieldsites is listed in Table 45. different in each commune. In Thai An, most damage was to the livestock sector, while in Tan Trinh house Costs of losses from Climate hazards damage was most significant. Information on damage to households from climate Kon Tum. The household survey asked sampled house- events was collected during household interviews. We holds about their major income sources before Typhoon asked each household how much they lost after any Ketsana and the change of income after the event. recent climate hazard in their area to get an estimate of While the two researched communes had the same how much climate hazards are costing households now, sources of income before the event, on average each so that such expenses might be compared with the costs household member in Dien Binh earned twice as much of adaptation measures for cost-benefit analyses. income as compared with their counterpart in Dak Tram. After the event, each household member in Dien Ha Giang. A flash flood in 2008 and a tornado in 2008 Binh earned one and a half as much income from all were the most significant climate events in Ha Giang in sources. The reasons are two-fold. First, Dien Binh lost Table 45. summary of hazards and seasonaliTy aCross The field siTes Secondary Geographic area Primary Hazard Hazard Seasonality Major Events Ha giang ­ Northern Mountains high limestone Water stress cold spells drought: oct­April Every year, increasingly serious; mountains cold spells: nov­feb strong cold snap in 2008 high earth flash floods, drought flash floods: may­July Every year; most serious in 2008­09 mountains landslides tornados: April­July lowland areas flash floods, tornados may-­July Every year; most serious in 2008­09 inundation Quang Nam ­ Central Coast hôi An city floods storms sept­nov. Each year, more and more storms, flood levels higher and more serious cu lao cham storms, high tornados, storms: Aug­nov Each year, most serious in 2008 and islands pressure areas drought, and tornados: dec­mar 2009 strong rain drought: June­sept strong rain: oct­nov Kon Tum--Central Highlands drought ­ prone drought flash flood february ­ may (drought); drought occurs every 4 years (2004 (dak tram) June­ september (flood) and 2008); major flood occurred in 1996 and flash flood in 2009; severity is increasing flood-prone (dien dak psi River Riverbank erosion monsoon (June­July) occurs every 10 years or more; the Binh) flood most serious one happened in 2009 Mekong Delta Bac lieu drought irregular rainfall April­may (drought) irregular rainfall in 2008 can tho high floods April may (high temp); floods high temperature in 2009; last major temperature in oct­dec floods in 2000 Source: Key informant interviews and focus group discussions. 62 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 46. household damaGe from ClimaTe hazards in ha GianG Thai An Tan Trinh (Flash flood in 2008) (Tornado in 2008) VND % VND % house damage 2,350,000 33.6 6,687,500 43.9 Appliance 0 0.0 1,800,000 11.8 Vehicle/boat 0 0.0 937,500 6.2 Amenities/water supply, electricity, communication 200,000 2.9 93,750 0.6 crop 1,199,833 17.1 2,115,625 13.9 livestock and poultry 3,250,000 46.4 2,606,250 17.1 fishing 0 0.0 750,000 4.9 post-event sickness 0 0.0 237,500 1.6 totAl 6,999,833 100.0 15,228,125 100.0 Source: household survey. more coffee plantation land, which was more valuable affected and the poor were least affected. The reason is than lost rice fields in Dak Tram. Second, many house- that the well-off had more land than the poor. However, holds in Dak Tram earned large income from harvest- it would take the well-off a shorter period of time to ing timber from the felled tree for timber traders. It make a full recovery since they had more assets and should be noted that during the typhoon the well-off more alternatives than the poor. Table 47 shows that households in the two communes were the most among all sources of household income, the agriculture Table 47. inCome losses from TyPhoon KeTsana in Kon Tum Dien binh commune After climate event ­ Ketsana Average Baseline income Source of income (2008) (VND) % HH with Decrease % HH with Same % HH with Increase Agriculture 22,227,000 100 0.0 0.0 livestock 300,000 75 0.0 25.0 Wage labor 20,000 0 0.0 0.0 government salary 280,000 0 67.0 33.0 other 46,250 0 87.5 12.5 Dak Tram commune After climate event ­ Ketsana Average Baseline income Source of income (in 2008) (VND) Decrease (%) Same (%) Increase (%) Agriculture 7,966,667 100 0.0 0.0 livestock 14,286 67 0.0 33.0 Wage labor 594,286 60 15.0 25.0 government salary 5,114,286 0 83.0 17.0 other 43,333 0 85.6 15.4 Source: household survey, 2009. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 63 Table 48. losses Caused by 2009 floods in quanG nam Loss/ damage in details Total loss/ damage Property Tourist (VND) loss/ services/ Live- Region (100%?) damage % Fishing % Crops % Business % stock % An thang 7,298,810 4,601,428 ­63 0 0 14,285 >1% 2,683,095 ­37 % 0 0 Bai huong 5,273,500 4,226,500 ­80 930,000 ­18 0 0 72000 ­1 % 45,000 >1% Source: household survey. and livestock sectors were most negatively affected by households have tried to restore their livelihood portfo- the climate event in both communes. lios by "boosting" up livelihood activities already in the portfolio; for example, expanding pig keeping if paddy Quang Nam. The losses in Quang Nam as a result of the fields are flooded, or expanding dry swidden fields if 2009 flooding events had significant impacts on house- paddy production is poor. They have also made some hold income. Property damage was the overall largest small investments in improvements to some fields, such impact, with the average household in the area losing as digging water canals and purchasing water pumps, from 63­80 percent of the value of their home and house- especially if the family decides to move toward more cash hold goods in the floods. Not surprisingly, the greatest crops to supplement their livelihood portfolio. Shifts income losses were in the tourism business (loss of 37 away from vulnerable crops, like rice, to hardier crops, percent of income) and in fishing (loss of 18 percent of like cassava, were also practiced, although diversification income) compared to the previous non-flood year. has been adopted by only a very small number of house- holds, the majority of which were Kinh households or a da PTaT ion oPT ions and PraCT i Ce s otherwise well-off households in Dien Binh who had moved some of their investment into coffee plantations. Because households have already started to experience climate impacts, they have also taken a variety of adap- For the medium term, while households in Dak Tram tation measures in the past. Learning how and why concentrated on rice field restoration, their counterparts these adaptation measures were taken can help house- in Dien Binh not only focused on rice field repairs but holds and communities plan for better adaptation in the also on cash crops, such as cassava and coffee. It should future. Adaptation options are often grouped in catego- be noted that only well-off households could afford ries such as behavioral, structural, technological, finan- planting coffee at the moment, since the average and cial, and others. These options can also be grouped into the poor could not afford to purchase water pumping those adaptation options that happened spontaneously machines that cost up to 10 million VND. By the time or autonomously--without policy or intervention from the field research was being carried out, 40 percent of authorities--and those that were planned; that is, households in Dien Binh were engaged in coffee plan- supported by policy or other government assistance and tations. The commune had 20 Kinh households and all guidance. In the following section, we explore the of those households planted coffee. In Dien Binh, no different types of adaptation already going on, and those household had options for long-term adaptation, which options being explored for the future. is unfortunate as future predictions indicate strong vulnerability for the coffee sector by 2050. Ten percent autonomous adaptation Practices and household of households said that they would plant litsea, simply decision-making because litsea could bring good income and did not need large investment. However, each household said Kon Tum. Household adaptation actions in Kon Tum they would need at least 2 million VND to buy seed- have taken several forms. In the short term, after floods, lings to do this activity. 64 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 49. adaPTive oPTions and CosTs for differenT ClimaTe hazards in Kon Tum Climate event Short-term adaptation (less than 1 year) Medium-term adaptation (1­5 years) Dien bien floods 1. Activities: 1. Activities: pig keeping clearing land to grow cassava improving paddy fields planting coffee tilling non-flooded fields Repairing flooded fields growing beans purchase of water pumping machines and planting coffee cost: 0.36­5 million Vnd cost: 2­10 million Vnd droughts 1. Activities: 1. Activities: pig keeping growing cassava improving paddy fields cost: 2.5 million Vnd cost: 2 million Vnd Dak Tram floods 1. Activities: 1. Activities: Wage labor Restoring flooded rice fields pig keeping transporting sand to another place to restore rice improving paddy fields production taking advantage of the remaining area tilling non- flooded fields cost: 0.7­3 million Vnd cost: 1.2 million Vnd droughts 1. Activities: 1. Activities: doing nothing doing nothing cost: 0 Vnd cost: 0 Vnd Source: focus group discussions. Differences between the better integrated community of village, simply because they said they did not have any Dien Bien, which was closer to roads and had more skills, except for working on their fields. Their concerns diverse livelihood portfolios before climate events like about their lack of capacity and inability to compete in Ketsana, and the remoter commune of Dak Tram were any field except the agriculture they had grown up with noted. For example, to combat droughts, the Dien Bien means that the Kon Tum households had a very limited households said they would invest labor in improving array of adaptation options to pursue in terms of liveli- irrigation to their paddy fields or else change to plant- hood shifts. For example, as discussed earlier in the live- ing cassava, which is more drought resistant, while in lihoods section, almost all villagers in both Dak Tram Dak Tram households said they had no options to and Dien Binh did not keep any pigs or chickens. This combat drought. This seems to indicate that Dak Tram is due to the fact that they did not have much knowl- has less resiliency than Dien Bien, as they were unable edge of pig or chicken keeping. Important as well is to think of possible adaptation options they could that they did not have capital sources to invest in implement in the future. animal feed. During group discussions, villagers expressed their desire to be trained in animal keeping Unlike households in the Red River Delta or Mekong and provided micro-credit so they could engage in live- Delta, where there is considerable mobility in terms of stock as an income-generating activity when agriculture short-term working opportunities, especially among suffered from climate events. younger members of households, the research results show that only two households surveyed had members Quang Nam. Adaptation activities in Quang Nam working in Kon Tum town. The rest did not want to cannot really be characterized as "adaptation" as much as move permanently away from climate-affected areas, or coping strategies for disaster risk reduction. The try to make their livelihoods outside of the native primary things that households do is simply try to d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 65 reduce the risk of household asset damage during the households, sick households, and those people who are climate events that most affect this area (namely floods not able to protect themselves. That is why local people and typhoons), with other activities like long-term often answered that when a storm comes, each house- shifts to new livelihood strategies not yet being consid- hold will take care of their own families, and soldiers ered. It is clear that local people in both sites do not will help other "weak" households. Soldiers even help have long-term plans for coping with extreme weather local fishermen move their boats to safe places. While events. this military help keeps the weakest households safe, there is concern that people have become dependent on In Hoi An city, preparing for the fall floods is the main the state support, reducing their own adaptive capacity. option carried out. Most houses now have a second floor that can be used to store food and household Knowledge also plays a role in disaster risk reduction. goods during floods. Normally the flood season is from For fishermen, they need to know about the forecasts September to November and starting in July every year, for weather by their own local knowledge, such as the households will start taking assets from the first floor to colors of the cloud, the humidity, and the temperature. the second floor to avoid the damage of flood. One resi- These customs relating to fishing are important to avoid dent commented that "in July, it is like a festival or Tet storms and strong winds. Another aspect of fishing since people are busy wrapping unnecessary things, households' adaptation strategies are to keep their fish- preparing ropes, etc. to wait for storms and floods." For ing operations small. Villagers still use mostly small the richer households, they even make advance contacts boats and older traditional techniques (simple netting) to some other households or workers so that whenever to do fishing. With the small boats, the fishers cannot the floods happen, the workers will come to help and go very far, and normally it takes 3 to 4 hours per day to they will be paid for moving goods to safety. In Bai go out to the sea and back home. But households Huong village on Cu Lao Cham island, people also explained that they deliberately do not want to go very prepared bags, ropes, etc., before the storm season. far because it will be dangerous if they meet storms or However, since this is an island community, these strong wind. The problem is that the imposition of a households also get state priority and support in the marine protected reserve around Cu Lao Cham island form of an army troop that garrisons in this area. These has pushed fishermen farther out to sea than they soldiers will help old people or female-headed would normally like to go. Table 50. adaPTive sTraTeGies To ClimaTe ChanGe in quanG nam Strategy Climate Hazards Minh An (Hoi An city) Tan Hiep (Cu Lao Cham island) flood · Build household with supplemented floors · increase the height of first floor · higher first floor · River · Build concrete river bank costs: several tens of million Vnd costs: several tens of million Vnd storms and strong winds · Build concrete houses · Build boat-keeping areas · prepare wooden roofs · Build concrete sea dikes to prevent soil erosion · prepare sandy bags to put on roofs of houses costs: several tens of million Vnd cost: millions of Vnd typhoons n/A · Weather prediction based on local knowledge and traditional experiences costs: none Sources: Group discussion and local Psd workshop. 66 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m The technological options that households have pursued Still, some indigenous knowledge is still able to be prac- have so far all been aimed at risk reduction, namely ticed. To deal with cold spells, the Hmong often pursue building higher and stronger houses or boat marinas. A the following options: quarter of the city residents surveyed said they would consider moving to other areas of the city out of the · Make earth walls for buffalo cages way of floods in the future. The residents of Bai Huong · Keep buffalo out of windy areas, or keep buffalo fishing village, however, had literally no ideas about and horses inside the house in cold days and keep what they would do for long-term adaptation (Table fire in the house 54). · Feed buffalo with rice straw, or prepare rice/corn porridge for animals with thao qua (local herb) and Ha Giang. Residents in the minority communities of salt to keep their bellies warm Ha Giang have traditionally relied on much indigenous knowledge to help them through climate events, but Housing styles can also be adaptive. The Hmong try to with the severity of climate events increasing and as a build houses in areas out of wind flows, to build small result of increasing vulnerabilities outside of their houses with low roofs and earth walls, and build control, such activities have become less effective. For bamboo attics to dry corn and rice, which can also be example, in the past, to deal with the heat, local people used for sleeping when needed. Keeping the houses collected imperata grass to make roofs to reduce heat simple (with little furniture) helps to mitigate damage during summer time. But it is hard to collect that kind from winds and floods. of grass now that lands that previously had grass are planted with forest monocultures of acacia under The four districts in the rocky mountain area are also national reforestation programs. The head of Thai An changing their crops grown to lessen the damage caused commune said this monocultured forest is not effective by water stress. According to the head of Water in preventing flash floods, either, which was one of the Management Department of DARD, nearly 30 percent reasons it was originally planted. To deal with land- of corn area has been converted to grass plantation in slides, the local people used to dig a hole in front of 2009 due to lack of water. The villagers plant "elephant their fields to capture sand washing down with the grass" (imported from Guatemala) as fodder for buffa- water from streams. But villagers in Quang Binh loes. Villagers said this grass has high resistance to cold commune said this option does not work now as there spells, can grow on sloping land, and they even said this is too much sand and the flash floods are too strong; the grass could help prevent soil erosion as well. This option hole is filled with sand after just one rain. encourages buffalo grazing, and since this adoption, new Table 51. hh Plans in quanG nam if fuTure brinGs more frequenT sTorms and floods Activities An Thang Percentage Bai Huong Percentage no idea 12 57 19 95 move to other living area 5 23 0 0 Build more stable house 2 10 0 0 consult local government 1 5 0 0 Reduce industrial activities 1 5 0 0 see how the situation will be and then will think of 0 0 1 5 plan total 21 100 20 100 Source: household survey. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 67 buffalo/cow markets have emerged and the villagers can sell a buffalo/cow for 4­5 million VND. Introduction of fiGure 15. CroP disTribuTion adaPTed To cay cai (an oil-produced crop) is another adaptation ClimaTe ChanGe on mounTain sloPes option. This crop is imported from Australia and is (quan ba disTriCT) known for having resistance capacity to drought. Rubber plantations are another option to support the Forest trees (more thao qua in the development of forestry crops. Around 700 hectares of northwest - wet area) rubber was planted in Bac Quang district in 2008. A mountain slope planted with more adaptive crops is shown in the Figure 15. Grass for fodder Changing varieties and calendars is another option. Rice and corn are still a major crop but short-term (3­4 month) varieties are replacing local (6-month) varieties. Rice, corn, soy bean, vegetable (more China-made rice varieties are widely used as they have tea in the NW-wet area, more vegetable high resistance to drought. Corn varieties (NK 4300 in the E (dry) area and CP999) are imported from Thailand as they fit in with the shorter rainy season. The villagers widely apply Source: household survey. Table 52. adaPTaTion oPTions TaKen by households in ha GianG Type of hazards Thai An Tan Trinh cold spell · store grass before winter · keep livestock in cage (instead of grazing) and feed with · cover cage with plastic cover grass · store fuelwood · keep fire inside cage · keep fire in the house · use plastic cover for cage · prepare porridge with salt and thao qua to feed buffalo costs: this does not cost much in terms of · use short-term varieties money, except for 50,000­100,000 Vnd to buy · replace rice with vegetables (if rice can't stand) plastic cover. the cost is in terms of labor days. it takes nearly 3 weeks--if we push for costs: 200,000­300,000 (mainly on vegetable seeds to the timing the villagers spend on collecting replace rice, plastic cover and thao qua) grass and fuelwood drought · buy (extensive) plastic pipes to get water for · replace rice with vegetable household use · replace rice with cai dau (oil-produced crop) · do not plant any crop · replace corn with peanuts costs: 100,000­200,000 Vnd (on plastic pipes) costs: 100,000­200,000 Vnd for seeds flash flood · build house away from streams · move house to another place · dig contours in front of the house to catch · move to relatives before flash water (before it gets to the house) · use short-term varieties to harvest before flood season · evacuate to other houses costs: no cost in terms of money costs: 5,000,000 Vnd (on building a house), 1 week on digging contours landslide · evacuate to relatives or neighbors costs: no cost in terms of money tornado · use bamboo to tie the roof · tie down roof · resettle in other village · dig tunnel near the house to hide in · use wooden poles to support the house · build low-roof cage · build cement house costs: no cost in terms of money costs: 5,000,000­7,000,000 Vnd on building a house, 300,000­400,000 Vnd on fixing roof Source: household survey and focus group discussions. 68 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m short-term varieties so they can harvest earlier to avoid system in the last five years, and only a few residents tornados. If the crop is not successful, they still have have grown more trees or dug water pools to improve time to replace with other crops. For example, in Thai their farming systems in response to climate change. The An commune, 3-month rice varieties are used so that average amount of money spent by these households was the villagers can replace it with soybean or peanut in around 2.2 million VND. Regarding saving money to case the rice dies of drought. cope with disaster and climate change, 45 percent and 55 percent of households interviewed in Long Dien village Income diversification is the final option that Ha Giang and Long Dien Tay village said they had saved money to residents have adopted. To cover loss and damage cope with disasters and climate change, respectively. caused by hazards, minority people often work for construction projects near their commune (e.g. For long-term adaptation, residents had no ideas on construction of roads, lakes, small-scale hydro power how to adapt to climate change in the long term and plants, etc.). Some young men in Tan Trinh have also said they would need more knowledge on this issue. moved to the south (Ho Chi Minh city) and Quang Some 70 percent of respondents strongly agreed with a Ninh province to work for textile companies since 2006. statement in the survey that "serious natural disasters are fated, beyond man's control," which may limit their Bac Lieu. Farmers in the Mekong Delta did not have understanding of what they will be able to do to adapt. many short- and medium-term measures to adapt to Some households did suggest that one way to adapt climate change, instead focusing on small coping would be to move away from climate-affected activities actions. In terms of short-term changes, households like farming and aquaculture if their children had coped with hotter days by buying fans, and with colder adequate employment in the future to support them. days by wearing more clothes. They also undertook Therefore many households have paid attention to their disaster risk reduction measures like preparing houses children's education at the present time. before storms by tying down windows and roofs. In Long Dien village, the biggest short-term needs after Can Tho. Short-term adaptation measures to extreme climate events were to be provided with cash, fuel, a weather has been limited in Can Tho to coping clean water supply, and rebuilding their house. measures, like buying fans for hotter days or preparing houses in advance of floods. Only 25 percent of people In terms of medium-term measures, most households interviewed had any responses to questions about (more than 75 percent) said they have done nothing. measures and costs for adaptation to climate change Most respondents have not changed their production (Table 54). For long-term adaptation to extreme Table 53. adaPTaTion measures by baC lieu villaGes Long Dien Long Dien Tay Total Extreme weather Short-term coping Frequency % Frequency % Frequency % no response 34 77.3 23 79.3 57 78.1 flood Building dike system 1 2.3 0 0.0 1 1.4 costs: 500,000 Vnd/hh hotter growing more trees 9 20.5 5 17.2 14 19.2 costs: 1,000,000 Vnd/ hh drought digging water pool 0 0.0 1 3.4 1 1.4 costs: 20,000,000 Vnd/ hh total 44 100.0 29 100.0 73 100.0 Source: household survey. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 69 Table 54. adaPTaTion measures in Can Tho HHs adopting HHs adopting Short-term measure Average measure Extreme adaptation cost/ HH Medium- term Average cost/ HH weather measures # % (VND) adaptation # % (VND) hotter Buying fans 6 30 installing air 1 5 4,666,667 conditioner 541,667 flood preparing house 6 30 total all none ­ ­ ­ colder Buying sweater 1 5 actions none ­ ­ ­ Whirlwind preparing house 2 10% none ­ ­ ­ Source: household survey. weather, only one person had an idea, which was to raise reduce their exposure to the event. Residents often the house floor higher than the flood water level, at a exchanged information about the events that they heard cost of about 10 million VND. from early-warning systems, and shared information on things to do such as reinforcing houses. Information Community adaptive actions sharing about weather forecasts and disaster preparation measures was the most common collective action, likely Collective action can play a significant role in helping because this action comes with little cost, although this households cope and adapt with climate hazards, which varied by region, for example, sharing information can be a useful buffer for the future. People can ask for happened in less than half the households surveyed in help from their friends and relatives, who are often the the Mekong Delta. Preparatory activities that entailed first line of defense for households that have been raising or spending of funds and additional labor--such affected by storms. They can seek shelter in relatives' as preparing rescue roads, building sandbag dikes, or houses, rely on relatives to help them clean up afterwards, dredging drainage and canal systems--tended to be less and to provide loans if financial assistance is needed. common, and these were usually coordinated by mass Most of the households in our research sites took collec- organizations like the Veterans' Union, Farmers' Union, tive actions one way or another but they did it with and Women's Union. Additional actions were often different degrees in each study site. Types of activities taken in smaller neighborhood or kin-based groups, taken in each community primarily differ depending on such as helping one another get a crop in early before a the types of climate events and the level of seriousness of storm. For example, to respond to flash floods, the the events. We can classify these collective action adapta- villagers in Tan Trinh commune of Ha Giang helped tion activities into three main categories (Burton 1993): each other to collect and move neighbors' furniture and livestock before the flood came. After the flood they · reducing the sensitivity of the system to climate joined together to clean up their villages. In this case, change, such as by preventing losses or spreading the collective action had clear mutual benefits for all losses socially who participated. · altering the exposure of the system to climate change, such as shoring up infrastructure, building After climate events, collective action emphasized collective shelters, or planting community trees rescue and relief activities aimed at reducing sensitivity · increasing the resilience of the system to cope with to the event; the most common options were behavioral changes, such as making new institutions or raising and structural. Households in the communities collabo- capital. rated to conduct such activities as cleaning up the envi- ronment, mobilizing and distributing goods and Before the climate events, collective action primarily assistance to affected people, and reinforcing and repair- took the form of preparedness activities that tried to ing damaged dwellings and public infrastructure. Eighty 70 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m percent of respondents in Long Dien village and 45 floods he and his neighbors helped each other to move percent in Long Dien Tay village in the Mekong Delta household goods from the first floor to second floor. participated in these types of joint activities within the After that they shared meals together to thank one community to collect money to support impacted another. But nowadays, there is no more relationships of households, and to rebuild houses after disasters that kind ­ anything now can be bought and sold. occurred. In Cu Lao Cham, Bai Huong village had Before and after floods, if he needs someone, he can call many people who borrowed money interest-free from a wage laborer and pay for them. It is easier and there is their friends--typically 3­5 million VND--to help no need to cook meals for the neighbors afterwards, he rebuild after climate events. However, collective action said. was not seen yet in the research sites in the form of a long-term adaptation strategy primarily aimed at But even in urban areas, there are still signs of collective increasing the resilience of the system to cope with action for the greater good. For example, keeping the changes. street clean is considered as the most important way to attract tourists. A 45 year-old man, who is the owner of Overall, most collective actions taken by households at a tourist boat on the Hoai River, noted in an interview the community level are more time-consuming than that: "My life relies on this river. When I was a child, financially costly. This may indicate that most collective my family did fishing in this river. Recently, as there are actions being undertaken are the "easy" actions that increasing number of tourists in Hoi An, I changed to entail little sacrifice of time or money. Should more this job (providing boat service for tourism). My neigh- serious actions be needed in the future, these may bring bors and I understand well that if the river is polluted more difficulties in terms of mobilizing participation our clients will decrease, so we follow the rules of the and reducing conflicts to ensure the collective action city in keeping the river clean. When the commune provides benefits for all. organizes the collective activities in collecting plastic bags and other waste on the river, we are active to State-level organization of adaptation activities is one participate." Making the same point, a women who is reason for a limit to collective action. In the case of owner of a cafeteria next to the river in Hoi An Vietnam, the structure of response to climate events by reported: "My house as well as other houses along this local officials is primarily through a Storm and Flood Bach Dang street know well that we need to keep the Prevention Team (SFPT) formed in all of the hamlets street clean, we plant and take care of the trees along researched. The formal structure of disaster and flood this road. Although the commune pays a worker who responses means that there are clear plans from district cleans the road as usual, we clean the street everyday. to commune to village about who is responsible for We organize the day to clean together. By that way, we various actions (i.e. village head will do this, the village have no complaints from tourists about waste and dirty women's union representative will do that, etc). While streets." this is useful in some respects, it does create situations where local people do not volunteer or organize them- self-assessment of Community adaptive Capacity selves spontaneously, because they think that the local government officials have responsibility for those Ratings of effectiveness of capital assets in the commu- activities. nity were conducted during focus group discussion at district and commune level to see how the local Urban areas in particular have also seen an erosion of communities assessed their own adaptive capacities. We collective help in favor of financial relationships. In the asked groups to rank the types of capital in the commu- urban community in Hoi An, the relationships among nity from 1 to 5 (with 5 being the highest), including households were reinforced by a long time living natural capital (local natural resources such as water, together, and although the traditional elements in the forest), human capital (education, ability to work), social relationships still exist, market relations have step financial capital (access to bank loans, cash/income by step influenced the life of people here. An elderly sources), social assets (helping each other, receiving man in An Thang said that 20 years ago, during the support from outside), and infrastructure/physical assets d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 71 (road quality, access to market). These were then plotted capital and infrastructure were rated moderately well in on a pentagram diagram. The larger the "spider web," Kon Tum. the higher the self-assessment of adaptive capacity. Quang Nam: The island village of Bai Huong gave Ha Giang. Quan Ba district had higher adaptive capac- themselves fairly low capacity assessments, while the ity than Quang Binh despite the fact that Quang Binh urban community of An Thang rated higher, surpris- is a better-off district and is located in the lowlands. ingly even in social capital, which might be expected to be lower in urban settings. Kon Tum. Dak Tram commune and Dien Binh commune both gave themselves very low assessments of Bac Lieu. Both communes assessed gave themselves capacity, particularly in the areas of financial capital, fairly high marks for natural capital, noting the favor- natural resource capital, and human capital. Only social able production conditions in much of the Mekong fiGure 16. CaPaCiTy assessmenT in ha GianG Quang Ba District Quang Binh District Natural resource capital Natural capital 5 5 4 4 3 3 Social capital Human capital Social capital Human capital 2 2 1 1 Financial capital Infrastructural capital Financial capital Infrastructural capital fiGure 17. CaPaCiTy assessmenT in Kon Tum Dak Tram District Dien Binh District Natural resource capital Natural resource capital 5 4 4 3 3 Social capital Human capital Social capital 2 Human capital 2 1 1 Financial capital Infrastructural capital Financial capital Infrastructural capital 72 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m fiGure 18. CaPaCiTy assessmenT in quanG nam Bai Thuong Island Village An Thang Residential Area Hoi An City Natural resource capital Natural capital 5 5 4 4 3 3 Social capital Human capital Social capital Human capital 2 2 1 1 Financial capital Infrastructural capital Financial capital Infrastructural capital fiGure 19. CaPaCiTy assessmenT in baC lieu Cay Gian A hamlet, Bac Lieu Vinh Dien hamlet, Bac Lieu Natural resource capital Natural resource capital 4 4 3 3 Social capital 2 Human capital Social capital 2 Human capital 1 1 Financial capital Infrastructural capital Financial capital Infrastructural capital Delta. Challenges, however, were found in financial like the Central Committee for Flood and Storm capital resources in particular. Control (CFSC), which includes representatives of all major line ministries, are usually represented down to even the village level in the form of Storm and Flood i ns T iT uT ional aCTions and Control Teams (SFCT). The central CFSC's job is to i nT era CT ions gather data and monitor floods and storms and issue warnings and forecasts to local areas. Then local offices role of formal and informal institutions of the CFSC at each province are supposed to coordi- nate local measures to be taken, such as dike protection Across the country, institutions for climate change are and post-flood recovery efforts. Other district offices largely similar in local areas, due to the strong central- that are engaged in storm and flood prevention activi- ization of government in Vietnam. National institutions, ties include the Irrigation Sub-Department, d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 73 Department for Agriculture and Rural Development Women's Union, Youth Union, Veterans' Association, (DARD), Department for Planning and Investment Senior Citizens' Association, and local branches of the (DPI), and Department for Natural Resources and Red Cross. There were few independent NGOs Environment (DONRE). encountered in the fieldsites working with residents on climate or livelihood activities, with the exception of Funding is often limited for these activities; for exam- Action Aid in Ha Giang and the Japanese Red Cross in ple, the budget provided to Quang Nam CSFC for the Quang Nam. Local Vietnam Red Cross groups are a whole province was 530 million VND every year. Richer very effective nonprofit organization in the field of communities can find more money for these activities; storm and flood control. For example, the Quang Nam for example, the annual budget for storm and flood Red Cross was supported by the Japanese Red Cross in control of Hoi An city is usually from 500 million 1995 to develop a vulnerability map. They also were VND to 1 billion VND, taken from 1 percent of the involved in developing a group of young people in flood annual total budget of the city. This system means that and storm control by training volunteers in rescuing poorer areas get less money for their storm activities, techniques, restoring food and water, etc. The Red since the money is usually only a fixed 1­2 percent of Cross also developed training material describing the local budgets. At lower levels (i.e. village), storm activi- structure of houses that can cope with floods and ties are often funded by small contributions/taxes from storms. households, usually 100,000VND a year or less. There is no institution or committee that is in charge of Despite these constraints, as a disaster management "climate change" per se at any fieldsite. Therefore there institution the local-level CFSC committees usually is no budget allocated specifically for climate change manage to do a lot. For example, in Hoi An, there is a adaptation activities. According to the head of the Dak transportation cooperative with ten or more 45-seat To District DONRE, climate change would be given cars. The city can use those cars to move people from the first priority if the budget allowed them to do so, low areas to higher and safer places in case of floods even though none of the staff members of related and storms, as well as the use of 60 boats for rescuing offices/departments or of CFSC were trained in the and moving people. In the past four years, on three field of climate change. Sometimes, however, provinces occasions the CSFC of Hoi An has had to implement receive "occasional" funding for climate-change-related the evacuation of thousands of local people. activities. For example, since 2005 Ha Giang received 100 billion VND from ADB to fix irrigation projects Complaints are often heard in local areas about the top- and DONRE was provided with 100 million VND by down manner of working of the CSFCs. In Bai Huong MONRE to work out appropriate hygienic projects for village and An Thang living quarter, the CSFC has not local people after landslides. But these funding sources been highly appreciated due to their relative lack of are infrequent and often tuned to outside demands. actions of helping and supporting households outside of flood emergencies. This is primarily because all Despite the clear top-to-bottom chain of command in members in CSFC at this level do not have any allow- CSFC activities, information on climate is often late in ance or budget for their labor or efforts for communal/ getting to localities, even for extreme events. For exam- public activities. Sometimes, the members said they do ple, the hydrometeorology center of Ha Giang is not like to join the CSFC since they felt they could not responsible for collecting information from the help most people very much. Northeast weather stations. The information is sent to a number of organizations in the province, but not on a Other national mass organizations, such as the regular basis. The center also does not have the ability Fatherland Front and Red Cross, often get involved in to analyze long-term trends; this has to be done in disaster response as well, such as by raising and distrib- Hanoi at a specialty institute. The head of one district uting relief funds. The overall coordinating committee DARD said his division only received information for these organizations is the Fatherland Front, and about the several cold spells and drought after it had specific mass organizations include the Farmers' Union, already taken place in 2008 and 2009, and it was too 74 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m late to make effective intervention activities. Even non-climate change related programs, primarily through communication between upper and lower levels in the existing programs to resettle ethnic minority households same ministry can be difficult. For example, in Ha out of remote areas and programs for agricultural exten- Giang, the meteor-hydrology information is collected sion. For example, funding has been provided for the by a center that is under MONRE management, but relocation of those who live along rivers and streams to the provincial Ha Giang DONRE has no ties with this safer places. Extension workers also provided villagers center. If there is a need for any data, DONRE has to with vegetable seeds and seedlings to grow after Typhoon send an official request to the center via MONRE in Ketsana, and also provided training on cassava, rice, corn, Hanoi. Other provincial departments have no skills to rubber, and coffee planting techniques to villagers, such deal with unfamiliar challenges, and have to hire outside as intercropping cassava with leguminous plants to enrich experts and consultants to prepare work plans for their the soil. They have encouraged villagers to plant litsea, a sectors. For example, in Ha Giang, DPI is hiring the drought-tolerant tree species. The district also temporar- Institute of Development Strategy of MPI to work on ily provided a water pumping machine for irrigation after its socioeconomic plan toward 2020, including notifica- Ketsana, but since local rice fields were not geographi- tion for climate change impacts in the province, while cally concentrated, it was very difficult to pump the water Ha Giang DARD is hiring the Institute of Planning and the costs to run it were high. under MARD to work on land use and crop planning. The hiring of outside consultants to complete local land Kon Tum has also been participating in the central use and climate plans means that little capacity is being government target Program 167 to support housing to built up outside of Hanoi for these activities. the poor. Each poor household is given financial support of 8.4 million VND; at the same time, the Overall, the mechanisms for research, information shar- household could take a loan of 8.5 million VND from ing, cooperation, and budgeting both horizontally and the Social Policy Bank with no interest. The decision vertically in government institutions related to climate has helped the poor build permanent houses with flat is weak and ad-hoc, and determined by the size and concrete roofs, and in that way the poor may also be seriousness of hazards. Thus, local government units able to better adapt to climate change. often play a passive role in climate change issues, and provinces usually do not have sufficient budget for One place where many complaints were heard by resi- climate change activities. This is a major challenge to dents is in the financial services programs of the prov- climate change adaptation work by the formal institu- ince. According to key informants the ethnic minority tional system in the future. people did not have good access to banks. However, the bank did give loans to the Kinh, simply because the Planned adaptation investments and Policy Path Kinh people were seen to know how to do business. dependence The Kinh had access to such banks as the Social Policy, the Agribank, and the Tieu Dien Rubber Bank. In Given the weaknesses in the formal institutions addition, the program--entitled Poverty Alleviation in involved in government climate and disaster risk reduc- Central Vietnam--also gave loans up to 20 million tion, it is not surprising that there have been few VND with interest of 0.75 percent per year to house- planned adaptation investments in the fieldsites. In holds. However, it requires collateral. In other words, in most cases recounted below, the investments have been order to be eligible for the loan one needs to hand in in other sectors (i.e. in agriculture), which just happens their red book, which entitles him or her to use the to be related to climate change issue. In other cases, a land, to transfer the use rights as collateral for obtaining lack of attention to climate change in these other bank loans. Given this and the fact that the procedure is sectoral investments is leading to increased vulnerability too complex and time consuming, in particular in terms for some areas. of the time required to obtain a signature from the village cadres, many minority households did not take Kon Tum. Planned adaptation-related actions undertaken advantage of these programs, which might have in Kon Tum have all been implemented through increased their financial resiliency to climate hazards. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 75 Quang Nam. Planned adaptation actions in Quang Nam Ha Giang. The primary adaptation activities that are have primarily related to restrictions on some activities taking place in Ha Giang are related to infrastructure that might exacerbate disaster vulnerability. For exam- development. To respond and adapt to water stress in ple, the local government in Cu Lao Cham has forbid- the area, Ha Giang province is building small lakes in den the exploiting of sand for concrete to build houses the mountains to catch and reserve rainfed water for to prevent excess coastal erosion, but there are regular irrigation during the dry season. The province violations of the rule. Forest protection activities are also received more than 200 billion VND since 2007 from restricted by regulations and a ranger who works as the the central government to build three reservoirs. The police at the village checks on what people take from head of the DARD planning office said they would the forest, as only dry firewood and some vegetables are have to increase the height of these lake banks from allowed to be exploited there. Recently, about eight 1.5 to 1.7 meters now that they learned about future households were supported by the project of the nearby warnings and forecasts about precipitation under marine protected area to open a new type of guesthouse climate change scenarios. Roads are also being named "home-stay" for tourists, but it is unclear what improved and consolidated for evacuation purposes kind of support they will receive for this. during flash floods and storms, as well as for better access to markets. The province is receiving ADB In addition, since An Thang community is located in funding for these activities. the ancient city of Hoi An, local people have to follow rules and regulations of the government in conserving The province is also participating in several National the ancient city. This means that people cannot build Target Programs that have impacts on climate adapta- new stable and concrete houses, as this would diminish tion. For example, for the Poverty Alleviation (134) the attractiveness of the traditional wooden houses, and program, the province received 182 billion VND to they cannot build up the existing houses since rules build permanent houses, provide cultivable land, and restrict the height of their houses to 6 meters or less. drinking water to the poor households, with priorities This regulation has made local people face challenges in being given to minorities. There is also a small-scale struggling with floods in particular. irrigation projects fund to repair old canals and build new ones; this program provides a subsidy for irrigation One official safety net in most areas of Quang Nam is fees of 650,000 VND/hectare. The province is also the practice of using government funds to compensate implementing a national resettlement /displacement households that have damage from storm events. In an program, known as the 193 program, which gives interview with the vice chairman of Hoi An city, he support to those who lose their home due to a calamity, revealed that sometimes the city has to use their own and those who live near the border. The people residing budget and social welfare funds to supplement central- in mountainous areas, especially those who live in areas state support for damage from storms and floods. prone to landslides, are also being resettled under the Specifically, in 2006, each collapsed house would get 5 193 program. Houses are built in new areas and given million VND support from the province, while the city to households, with the resettlement site often near the gave 15 million VND more to help them to build a previous one. These people, however, often are faced new house. For those houses losing a roof, the city with a difficult challenge in finding new cultivation land government provided 5 million VND more added to 2 due to the limited land resources near the new houses. million VND from the province's budget. In 2009, They often go back to their old fields to farm, and thus according to the central government decision are facing a great risk of losing all their crop at any 167/2008/QD-TTG to support housing to the poor, time, even if their house structure itself may be less each poor family will get 8.4 million VND support for vulnerable in the new site. Ha Giang receives an annual building a house and the families with houses that were budget of 1,284 billion VND for this program. Ha damaged will get 2 million VND. Hoi An city govern- Giang also follows national forest planting plans (5 ment made full use of this decision to provide a budget Million Hectares program) to encouraging forest plan- of 30 million VND on average to local households for tations by providing rice to responsible households for building new houses. protecting trees. 76 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m complaints from local people about large-scale mining fiGure 20. small-sCale irriGaTion developments in the mountains, which might make uPGrade ProjeCT in ha GianG downstream communities more vulnerable in the case of increased precipitation and landslide vulnerability in the future. fu Tu r e PaTh Way s f o r a d aP TaT i o n a n d de v e l oPm e n T In Quang Nam coastal areas, the main options identi- fied for future pathways of adaptation and development were to raise awareness of local fishermen about the need for storm prevention, to provide information about weather events in time, to use natural resources ratio- nally, and to plan the residential area rationally in Hoi An town (i.e. resettlement away from flooded areas). In addition, Bai Huong village wanted to make full use of the beautiful sightseeing available on the island to attract tourists and promote ecotourism. However, they acknowledged this type of service will need knowledge Finally, small hydro power plants are being built; in and skills to use their natural resources effectively. Being 2010, the province will reach a total capacity of 600 only fishermen, local people in Bai Huong felt they MW. There are significant downsides to some of these lacked the knowledge and skills and needed support plans, however. The Malipho authority on the Chinese from government agencies. side of the border is testing an operation calendar for the gate on their side, which closes the Lo River from In terms of future adaptations and long-term develop- 4:30 pm to 10:00 am everyday. This decision, plus the ment planning, 57 percent of interviewed people from shortage of rainfall, has caused serious problem to Ha An Thang and 95 percent of interviewed people from Gang's irrigation capacity. Bai Huong had no idea what they will/should do if extreme events happened more frequently. Twenty-three Path dependency. There is not yet much path dependency percent of the interviewed people from An Thang and in overall climate adaptation activities, as few formal 5 percent of the interviewed people in Bai Huong said adaptation pathways have been identified in local areas. they would consult with local government, and 5 But much of the path dependency problem is in related percent of the interviewees mentioned the idea of sectors, many of which are not yet recognized by the reducing industrial activities since it affected the envi- formal government sector as being affected by climate ronment negatively. Fifty percent of interviewed people change. This includes plans for socioeconomic develop- in Bai Huong fishing village wanted their children to ment that focus on minerals exploitation or hydro find another job in their living area, compared to 33.3 development, which may increase vulnerabilities to percent of those interviewed in An Thang ward in the some communities if careful planning to take climate city. Forty-five percent of those interviewed in Bai change into account is not integrated with these sectors. Huong village, compared to 23.8 percent of those inter- For example, there is strong evidence that although Hoi viewed in An Thang ward, considered the possibility of An is located at the lower side of Thu Bon River next moving to another place to live to cope with climate to the sea and has always been vulnerable to flooding, in change in the future. recent years the activities in the upper river in mining, the construction of dams, and forest degradation has In Kon Tum, the households in our study sites have likely increased the impacts at the lower Thu Bon River. thus far tended to rely on measures implemented at the Similarly, in Ha Giang there were many worries and household level and aimed mainly toward on-farm d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 77 actions to protect against climate hazards. No adapta- Other adaptation suggestions included better develop- tion measures have been taken at the community or at ment planning, particularly for small-scale irrigation, the district or provincial level. What has been done so and changing cropping systems to more resilient variet- far at the provincial, district, and commune level is ies. Residents indicated that their key development primarily aimed at disaster preparedness. In contrast to needs for the future included: this focus, residents indicated their interests for the future were to have allocated forest rights, so that they · Secure supplies of drinking water, and irrigation might have safety nets to support sustainable develop- and water supply for remote people ment and ensure food security. Community-based forest · Roads to villages to sell goods protection models and environmental education · Research on effective farming on sloping land campaigns in order to change people's habits of using · Investigation of the real needs from local people, forest products were recommended actions. Rational e.g. identify places where need to remove rocks to water use was also a proposed strategy, given projections extend cultivation land, where need to make ter- for increasingly frequent drought by 2030. races to avoid soil erosion, etc. · Provide a sufficient amount to support local people Interviewees were asked: "What does your household to really fix or build a permanent house (right now need to deal with climate change induced problems in the support is only 5­6 million VND, only enough the future?" Most of the villagers suggested that the to build a very small house (24m 2) to the standard following needs should be taken into consideration in of the ethnic minority people, who need space to order to help them adapt better: keep livestock · Form an organization specialized in climate change · Provide financial support and excavators to house- adaptation to coordinate activities. holds to repair flooded fields to restore production · Provide rice and corn seeds from government In Bac Lieu, respondents in focus group discussions subsidies suggested a number of possible actions: · Provide financial support to buy coffee and rubber seedlings and pumping machines When presented with scenarios that in the next 40 · Provide financial support and training courses on years, due to climate change, productivity of shrimp and animal husbandry rice might be reduced 40 percent or more, interviewees · Provide boats in Bac Lieu had a variety of reactions: · Provide financial support to improve the waterways · 35 percent of households said they did not know In Ha Giang, residents considered many possible what production system they would apply in the options for long-term development and adaptation. future After being asked what they would do if the yield of · 30 percent of respondents answered that they would corn decreased 15­20 percent (as is predicted by the continue to combine cultivating rice and doing agricultural projections by 2050), residents of the high- shrimp farming land areas dependent on corn gave a number of plans: · 20 percent would apply a polyculture of brackish species (mud crab, mud keeper, and shrimp), · Replace corn with soybeans or grass for fodder and · 10 percent would only do shrimp farming regardless livestock · 5 percent would only plant fruit trees. · Develop services such as processing activities · Still grow corn but replace the existing seeds with In the scenarios of rainfall increasing rapidly in the next different varieties 40 years, leading to more flooded areas: · Produce corn wine for value added · Set up support institutions such as "exchange" · 50 percent of respondents answered that they would cooperatives at the commune to get a fair price for raise dykes and floor level of their house to continue their produce. staying in this area 78 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 55. fuTure adaPTaTion PossibiliTies for baC lieu residenTs Rank of effectiveness level (from Who should do the Rank of cost Adaptation measures high=1 to low) adaptation measures for adaptation agRICulTuRE/FaRMINg more investment for agricultural production, such as irrigation for 1 local authority and other more crops donors expensive improve seedlings, varieties, post-harvest techniques 2 Extension center Expensive diversify agricultural production (planting peanuts, forests, 3 local authority guides, people less livestock production) do it by themselves expensive change cropping pattern (from 3 crops/year to 2 crops/year, 4 farmers do it by themselves inexpensive change seasonal calendar) change farming practices, i.e. fallowing 5 farmers do it by themselves inexpensive change cropping calendar to harvest earlier or use new varieties 6 local authority guide, people inexpensive that can tolerate better extreme weather conditions do it by them selves more investment for new varieties 1 sees quarantine center less expensive stocking more livestock in grazing areas 2 farmers do it by themselves more expensive WaTER RESouRCES MaNagEMENT Access to new water sources (shallow groundwater, deep 1 local authority and local most groundwater, rainwater harvesting) people expensive improve watering techniques to save water 2 local authority and local medium people canal restoration 3 farmers do it by themselves medium oTHER INCoME SouRCES migrate to cities to find job; do off-farm activities, sell labor 1 young people (male, female) increase savings to prepare for risk 2 household sell property 3 Buy insurance 4 diversify income sources (i.e. handicrafts) 5 HouSINg Build new permanent house of more durable material 1 people do it by themselves more expensive make ceiling/attic for storing goods 2 people do it by themselves Expensive Build more floors 3 people do it by themselves Expensive move to new place (higher land) 4 people do it by themselves Expensive CoMMuNITY aCTIVITIES contribute cash or in kind to local climate change adaptation fund 1 farmers Average community food/seed bank 2 farmers most new regulations of the community in using land and water 3 farmers recommend, local no resources government approves participate in group works/establish new organizations 4 local government and less farmers contribute labor to reinforce dykes, infrastructure, etc... 5 local government and no farmers NaTuRal DISaSTER PREPaREDNESS Rescue equipment (i.e. boat) 1 local authority and other more donors expensive Continued on next page d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 79 Table 55. fuTure adaPTaTion PossibiliTies for baC lieu residenTs (continued) Rank of effectiveness level (from Who should do the Rank of cost Adaptation measures high=1 to low) adaptation measures for adaptation improve information access 2 Weather station, broadcasting medium station participate in short training course on first aid 3 clinic less expensive organize short training on swimming 4 people do it by themselves less expensive Source: focus group discussions. · 10 percent said they needed help from the would stay in the ward but strengthen their house. In government the scenario of increased drought in the next 40 years, · the rest said they did not know what to do in this most households said they had no idea or would situation. continue their current way of life, with one person saying they might move away. In the scenario of sea When presented with scenarios of serious drought in level rise and saline water intruding up to Can Tho city the next 40 years: in the next 40 years, 18 people interviewed said that they never think about it or that they do not know · 40 percent of respondents answered that they have what to do in this situation. One person said that his never thought about it family would use groundwater and rainwater and one · 35 percent would store more freshwater for house- person said "Let the government take care of it." hold consumption and production Overall, results indicate that local people in Can Tho · 10 percent would plant more trees do not know how to adapt to climate change in the · 10 percent had no response long term, and are in need of more knowledge and · 5 percent would move to another place. awareness on this issue. If sea level were to raise very highly in the next 40 years: K e y C o nCl u s i o n s f r o m fi e l dW o r K · 55 percent of respondents answered that it might be Overall, in the patterns of vulnerability and responses to good for shrimp farming existing climate events by surveyed households and · 25 percent would raise house floor level communities, there is not yet a strong understanding of · 5 percent would stop rice cultivation and only do the long-term nature of climate change. Most activities shrimp farming have been geared toward short-term coping in the face · 5 percent would follow what the neighbors do, of climate events like floods or storms, not making · 5 percent would select suitable plant and animal for plans for long-term adaptation. plant and raising · 5 percent of respondents said that they would move vulnerabilities to another place if they cannot do farming here. In all fieldsites, the poor were identified as especially In Can Tho, when presented with a scenario of rainfall vulnerable. In Hoi An and Can Tho towns, the poor increasing and floods becoming more serious in the had unstable employment (mostly wage labor) that next 40 years, most people had no response or did not could be lost if excessive flooding and storms occurred. know what to do, 15 percent said that they would move In Kon Tum and Ha Giang, poor households were to another place, and 10 percent thought that they usually subsistence farmers, and were less likely to have 80 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m stored food or have savings to rely on during periods of · Children (who are vulnerable to cold spells in Ha famine. In Bac Lieu, the poor were former farmers who Giang and kept home from school if it is too cold) had taken out large debts or who had lost their land, · Those with low levels of education. and who were dependent on wage labor opportunities, · Those who lack sanitation and fresh water were also which might decline during climate events. identified in Ha Giang as vulnerable, as the recent drought has meant rationing of household water. Those dependent on natural resource occupations were also identified as vulnerable. In the Cu Lao Cham External Influences. Vulnerabilities to weather can be islands, fisher families are directly vulnerable to storms, compounded by vulnerabilities to external forces. For especially if they are out away from shore in boats and example, as Vietnam has transitioned into the WTO and have no warning of impending danger. They are also global markets for goods like coffee, coffee price drops in vulnerable as they lack alternatives to fishing: there are the early 2000s strongly affected other provinces in the no agricultural opportunities on their island and no Central Highlands and led to high rates of indebtedness other jobs. In Kon Tum, most agriculture was subsistence- among some minorities who could not weather the price oriented and highly vulnerable to weather. In the wake drops. Although Kon Tum was less affected because of of Typhoon Ketsana in September 2009, many of the lower rates of coffee planting, the large-scale moves in residents' fields were covered with sand that had been the past 10 years toward rubber production may be blown in by the storm, and food production had vulnerable to the same forces if rubber prices decline or decreased by about 50 percent compared with last year. Chinese investment (which has driven much of the In Ha Giang, an extended drought for 8 months had change) dries up in the future. Vulnerabilities were also resulted in only about 20 percent of rice being irrigated, noted in some sites that were driven by forces out of the and there were expected drops of at least half in terms local areas' control, such as a decline in water volume in of production. Overall, losses due to climate events were Ha Giang and the Mekong Delta, likely caused by strongest in climate dependent sources of household hydropower dams on rivers in China. income, such as agriculture, livestock, and aquaculture. Even urban businesses can be climate dependent; in adaptation options Hoi An, businesses related to tourism were highly nega- tively affected by climate events. So far, we have primarily seen households' adaptation options aimed at managing climate risk: listening to Other vulnerable groups identified in local areas weather forecasts, building stronger houses, moving included: goods to upstairs rooms, evacuating out of unsafe areas, etc. These are mostly short-term coping strategies. · Ethnic minorities were also considered vulnerable, Some medium-term to long-term adaptation practices particularly in Kon Tum and Ha Giang. Many were beginning to emerge in the heavily subsistence- minorities lived in more remote areas and thus were agriculture-oriented zones of Kon Tum and Ha Giang, harder to reach with immediate weather storm where farmers were experimenting with new crops, warnings, but also longer term information plan- changing crop calendars, or using new varieties with ning is also hampered. shorter seasons or climate resistance. The most proac- · Senior citizens (who lacked mobility to avoid sudden tive adaptation appeared to be in Ha Giang in particu- or disastrous weather events in Kon Tum, and who lar, with strong social capital and indigenous traditions. were considered to be vulnerable to cold spells and For example, the erratic cold spells experienced in sickness in Ha Giang) recent years have led households to experiment with · Women (especially women who have recently given feeding different crops to animals (such as a local herb birth and are prone to illness as a result, and who that is supposed to keep the animals' stomach warm). often cannot fetch clean water for their families The Ha Giang farmers were also proactive at storing while they are confined at home with new babies, seeds and experimenting with new crops like vegetables such as in Ha Giang, or women working multiple or fodder grass, which they hoped might be more hardy jobs to feed their families, like in Quang Nam) to weather changes. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 81 The local authorities in the study sites have been While short-term coping can in fact build long-term primarily focused on building response capacity: for resilience, the majority of households interviewed example, having yearly evacuation plans, training simply don't have any idea what they should be doing in people in disaster drills, providing weather data to the future to help them adapt better to climate change. local authorities, etc. There has also been some small- Coping mechanisms combined with more information scale infrastructure development for climate risk. For and an institutional framework that facilitates longer example, in Hoi An the urban authorities have term planning should lead to better long-term adapta- constructed a cement pavement along the bank of tion, but this is not yet in place in most areas of river to prevent erosion; in Cu Lao Cham, the Army Vietnam. There are limited adaptation responses at has provided safe evacuation shelters for some resi- either the household or the government level that either dents; in Ha Giang, small hydropower projects to address the drivers of overall vulnerability or ones that reserve water during the dry season have been directly confront climate change processes. These are constructed on small streams. But local efforts have clearly areas that need more attention. been hampered by: There is some mobility in terms of short-term working · Lack of a long-term planning perspective ; one- and opportunities, especially among younger members of five-year plans are the most used time horizons households. From the household surveys and also from · Lack of strong administrative authority dealing the group discussion, members of communities report with climate change; no climate office, lack of that there are not many young laborers in their commu- direct funding nities. In Hoi An, it is because the number of old · Lack of information; most climate work being done people are high and the young people in their commune in research institutes in Hanoi, little capacity devel- want to find a better job; their motive to leave is the opment or sharing of information elsewhere change of lifestyle. They leave the shops for their · Lack of integration of climate change into other parents to manage. In Cu Lao Cham, the young also sectoral plans; hydropower development without leave their village to find jobs in the mainland. But in considering that the forecasts for water flow might Kon Tum, very few households wanted to move perma- be changed in 50 years. nently away from disaster areas or try to make their livelihoods outside of the area where they were born in Coping Strategies versus Adaptation. An individual or and have grown up in. communities' "coping capacity" has been defined as "the manner in which people and organizations use existing Diversification has been adopted by only a very small resources to achieve various beneficial ends during and number of households, and primarily the richer ones. immediately after unusual, abnormal, and adverse Households in all areas were already using markets for conditions of a disaster event or process" (World Bank agriculture and livestock produce, and it is not clear 2010). Most actions seen in the fieldsites were short- how this can be expanded beyond what is already being term coping actions, not long-term adaptation. For done to increase resilience to climate hazards. example, most storage activities were not aimed at stor- ing of assets and money over a longer term, although Pro-Poor Adaptation. Another point to consider is the there was some strong collective contributions to pool- adaptive capacity of the local people, especially the poor. ing of money for community damage. But most of this The issue of how to improve the resiliency of local financing is aimed at short-term storage of assets people and what kinds of mechanisms or institutions through an event of several days, not sharing of assets can facilitate that capacity is still a question. In many and money over a longer term. The poor and the cases, simple advance provision of information can raise hungry households in most communities could not awareness of self-protection from extreme weather even afford storage activities that are even aimed at events. Information about those weather events should short-term storage through a flood of several days, as be provided to local people early and accurately, so these are households that have difficulties in making people can have enough time to prepare for their house ends meet. and help other houses in case of need, many 82 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m respondents said. Uncertainty is one of the most cited input from authorities, which are major reasons why causes preventing households from performing adapta- they have been pursued by households who usually lack tion activities, such that information dissemination can many financial resources. help prevent uncertainty and increase resiliency. On the other hand, most planned adaptation options by To improve adaptive capacity of the local people, espe- authorities have been more focused on hard options, cially the poor, it was suggested in most fieldsites that such as building new roads, new houses away from there needed to be more livelihood alternatives for local vulnerable areas, more water pumps, or more reservoirs. people. In case of Bai Huong fishermen, their mono- In some cases, both hard and soft options, like informa- livelihood has weakened the adaptive capacity of local tion provision and early warning systems, have been in people, and also made them become more sensitive to place, but there is very little focus on capacity building climate events. This recommendation is closely related or policy changes. to the need to give local people more rights of access to manage the natural resources available in their region. Institutional Needs for Adaptation. In terms of proactive The restrictions on land, forests, and water in Cu Lao responses by institutions to adaptation needs, within Cham island created great resource constraints on governmental agencies, closer cooperation among differ- households, and the lack of forest management rights in ent sectors is needed. Additionally, though storm and Kon Tum kept households from being able to fall back flood control is highly prioritized by the central govern- on forest goods during times of need. ment and local authorities, climate change is a different type of problem and as such requires new thinking "Hard" adaptation vs. "soft" adaptation. In most defini- about the administrative structures and functions tions, "hard' adaptation measures usually imply the use needed to cope with it. For example, the CSFC at local of specific technologies and actions involving capital levels only operates intensively just before the storm and goods, such as dikes, seawalls, and reinforced buildings, flood season (late spring and summer) and CSFC whereas "soft" adaptation measures focus on informa- members do not get salaries, so the work is another tion, capacity building, policy and strategy development, burden on the shoulders of officers or local people. and institutional arrangements (World Bank 2010). Participating people often rotate year to year and so There have been very few hard adaptation measures there is no long-term thinking in terms of personnel taken by individuals to protect their houses, lands, and skills either. Therefore, it is necessary to have financial assets, such as building more permanent houses or mechanisms and other types of incentives in terms of building and improving drainage systems. The majority finance and social relationships to encourage people to of actions by households have been soft, behavioral take a more active and long-term role in institutions to ones: preparing for storms by moving goods and tight- combat climate change. Overall, separate budgets for ening houses and boats; changing crops grown or climate change adaptation and confrontation at various seasons planted; using traditional knowledge to keep scales, as well as human resources for this kind of work, livestock alive; and diversifying incomes through migra- and the cooperation and information sharing among tion or shifting to new sources of income. Most of these responsible agencies/ sectors, are likely to be the key options are low-cost, flexible, adaptable and require no factors in improving institutional adaptive capacity. 83 5. ParTiCiPaTory sCenario 1. Identified the most important impacts of future climate change and climate variability on in- develoPmenT (Psd) WorKshoP country populations as ranked by themselves, tak- resulTs ing into account baseline scenarios presented by scientific studies. 2. Assessed the probable impacts of these identified P sd Wor KshoP s: desi Gn overv i eW climate changes on particularly vulnerable people and livelihoods and what the expected associated Workshops on participatory scenario development adaptation responses were likely to be. (PSD) were conducted to identify and categorize adap- 3. Noted the preferred pathways for adaptation and tation pathways suitable for different livelihood groups. policy response that are pro-poor and PSD is a methodological tool for assessing future devel- cost-effective. opment and adaptation trajectories, which allows the 4. Identified key areas of integration and tradeoffs participation of multiple actors and stakeholders to across sectors and/or regions in the country, in explore the effects of different actions for future climate which adaptation to climate change goes hand-in- impacts. Components of PSD include: hand with other development priorities (Kuriakose et al. 2009; Bizikova 2010). · Climate and economic projection information used for "visualizations." The PSD workshops were a chance to assess the range · Processual and collaborative approaches that involve of imagined futures that different communities envision, stakeholders participating in exploring the future in as well as a chance to cost out different approaches and a creative and policy-relevant ways. make difficult choices about financial and social invest- · Structured debates about development priorities and ments and outcomes. These results can help policy relevant adaptation responses, as well as tradeoffs makers make better, more inclusive choices about the and synergies among adaptation options or policy range of adaptation responses to be considered in the reforms. future. · A focus on strengthening the intersectoral linkages between adaptation and development priorities that All the Vietnam workshops were modeled on the are not specific to climate change (Kuriakose et al. design presented by IISD in the TOT workshop, held 2009; Bizikova 2010). in early March (Figure 21). Following this training and the chance to do a "trial run" in the first national work- PSD workshops have been used throughout the country shop, the regional workshops were held . The PSD case studies that make up the social component of the workshops concluded with a 2nd National Workshop EACC study. The objective of these PSD workshops was on March 31 (Table 56). A total of 220 people were to come out with a set of discussions and pathways that: 84 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m fiGure 21. orGanizaTion of The Psd WorKshoPs current situation 2 & 1 Boundary future visioning Introduction Conditions: and Socio-economic Overview & Climate 3 Climate Change Impacts Engagement and Participation 7 Reflection and Wrap Up 4 Adaptation Options 6 5 Adaptation Adaptation Pathway Pathways Review Table 56. lisT of Psd WorKshoPs held in vieTnam, 2010 Type Location Date Organizer No. of participants 1st national hanoi march 4 iisd/cREs 22 northern mountains Regional ha giang city march 24 ctc 29 central highlands regional Kon tum city march 16 cREs 28 central coast Regional hoi An city march 17 cREs 26 mekong delta regional can tho city April 1 ctc, dragon 46 2nd national hanoi march 31 cREs 69 able to participate in one of the PSD workshops in groups were formed based on the interests and experi- Vietnam. ence of the participants and were created to correspond to geographical or social issues identified during the All the workshops generally held to the model of fieldwork that had taken place in the area; each work- having a morning session, which featured plenary shop had from two to five groups, as indicated below. presentations, while the afternoon was spent doing group visioning work. (An example of a workshop · First National Workshop: Mekong Delta; Central agenda from the Second National Workshop is Coast Region; Central Highlands; Northern presented in Appendix 5). The afternoon visioning Mountains groups (4 groups) d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 85 · Central Coast Workshop (Hoi An): Mountain areas; Once these questions were answered for the adaptation Lowland areas; Coastal areas; Islands (4 groups) options identified, the groups then constructed adapta- · Northern Mountains (Ha Giang): Rocky highlands; tion pathways that would integrate adaptation options mountainous areas; lowland areas (3 groups) with preferred development trajectories. These included · Central Highlands (Kon Tum): highland areas, asking the group about what would be the preferred lowland areas (2 groups) way forward for the region based on other development · Mekong Delta (Can Tho): rural areas, suburban challenges. Other questions included what would be the areas, urban areas (3 groups) no-regrets options that might work under different · Second National Workshop: Urban areas; Central climate projections, and what would be the necessary Highlands region; Northern Mountains Region; actions that needed to be in place at the national level Coastal and Red River Delta Region; Mekong to enable actions in the regions? Finally, given the Delta Region (5 groups) responses to the above questions, each group constructed a narrative for their region, following the Once in groups, the facilitators introduced the concept model outlined below: of the group work, which was primarily aimed at identi- fying the impacts of and vulnerability to climate change given projected climate change impacts of............................, in the region represented by the group, and to brain- and projected socioeconomic changes of .............................. storm adaptation options for these impacts. Once adap- by ............, we proposed an adaptation strategy entitled tation options had been enumerated, the facilitators had ................................. that seeks to meet the following goals the group review the identified adaptation options and of ................... through structured focus on ........................ list the five most preferred adaptation options, with an and adaptation activities of ........................... eye to what might be missing from the most-urgent options. For each of the five adaptation options, the group then answered the following questions: range of stakeholders 1. To what extent could the adaptation option be Participants in all the PSD workshops were diverse, considered pro-poor? including representatives of government ministries, 2. What preconditions are needed for the government research institutions, academic institutions, adaptations? provincial and district government offices, NGOs, and 3. What synergies could exist between the five adap- local residents from several regions (Table 57), although tation actions? government officials tended to be the majority of 4. What tradeoffs could there be between the five participants at the regional workshops. Gender parity adaptation actions? was very good in the participants list, as was a balance 5. Who are the beneficiaries? between older and younger participants. Table 57. TyPes of ParTiCiPanTs in Psd WorKshoPs NGOs/Civil Society/ Academics/ Others (including Workshop Govt offices Mass orgs experts local people) 1st national 7 5 9 2 northern mountains Regional 18 10 0 2 central highlands regional 18 5 2 1 central coast Regional 21 2 3 0 mekong delta regional 27 9 4 9 2nd national Workshop 14 8 31 15 86 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m overvieW of resulTs from l oC a l a n d Nonetheless, a few additional vulnerable groups (high- n aT ional Wor Ksho Ps lighted in bold below) were identified in the PSD but had not been looked at closely in the inception report, identified impacts and vulnerabilities to Climate so some new information was able to be obtained Change from the PSD process in addition to the interviews and literature reviews that comprised the inception Overall, the results of the PSD workshops closely report. mirrored the vulnerabilities and impacts that had been highlighted in the inception report for the social study. development Tradeoffs and Choices In terms of climate impacts identified by the PSD participants, these impacts range widely by region, and Before discussing how adaptation options could be also within regions, as noted below. considered for the climate impacts and vulnerable peoples identified, most workshops also spent time In the identification of vulnerable populations, most of identifying development trajectories and tradeoffs. That the groups that were highlighted by the research team is, what external pressures unrelated to climate change in the inception report were also identified by the would likely be encountered in the next 40­50 years PSD participants as those who were most vulnerable. that could either help or hinder action to combat box 4. idenTified ClimaTe imPaCTs from Psd WorKshoP GrouPs First National Workshop: Central Highlands Workshop: · changes in rainfall: (m, ch) · flash flood: (h, l) · sea level rise (m, c) · landslide: (h) · increasing temperature: (m, ch) · drought: (h, l) · drought: (c, ch, nm) · forest fires: (h) · typhoon: (c) · increased temps: (h, l) · flooding: (ch, nm) H= Highlands, L=Lowlands MD = Mekong Delta; NM = Northern Mountains; CH = Central Highlands; CA = Coastal areas Northern Mountains Workshop: Second National Workshop: · cold spells (Rh, m) · drought (Rh, l) · temperature change: (ch, U, nm, md) · forest fires (Rh) · precipitation change: drought (ch, nm, md), flood (U, md, cA), · flash floods (Rh, l, m) flash flood (ch, nm) · landslides (Rh, m) · typhoons: cA, md, U · storms (l) · sea level rise: md RH: Rocky highlands, L=Lowlands, M= Mountains U=Urban areas; MD = Mekong Delta; NM = Northern Mountains; CH = Central Highlands; CA = Coastal areas Mekong Delta Workshop: Central Coast Workshop: · floods: (U, R, s) · sea level Rise: (U, R, s) · increasing temperature: (l, c) · drought: (U, R, s) · decreased rainfall, drought: (m, l) · saline intrusion: (U, R, s) · increased rainfall, flood: (m,c) · Extreme events out of season: (U, R, s) · typhoon: (c, i) · storms/winds: (U, R, s) · sea level Rise: (c, i) U=Urban, R=Rural, S=Suburban M=Mountains, L= Lowlands, C=Coastal, I=Islands d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 87 box 5. idenTified vulnerable GrouPs in The Psd WorKshoPs First National Workshop: poor urban people, women, elderly, children, invalids, migrants, farmers (especially poor and landless), tourist services industry, fisherpeople, ethnic minorities, people dependent on agriculture, those in geographically vulnerable areas, minorities with forest dependence. Second National Workshop: the poor, elderly, children, women, ethnic minorities, low education, those with home employment & under- employment, households in the tourism services industry, commuters, migrants, slum dwellers, farmers, fishermen, those without water/sanitation. Central Coast Workshop: those living on riversides, farmers, children, women, people in mountains, investors in hydropower, fisher- men, the elderly, invalids, tourist service providers. Central Highlands Workshop: poor people, those who have low levels of education, ethnic minorities, elderly, children, women, those who live in remote areas, those who live along streams and rivers and at the foot of the mountains. Mekong Delta: poor households, migrant households without land or house; those in illegal temporary houses; those on river banks; farm- ers; households lacking labor; those with unstable jobs and low income; women; children; the elderly; the disabled; female-headed households. Northern Mountains: Ethnic minority groups, especially hmong, dao, tay, nung; poor households; farmers; women, esp. pregnant women; children/ students; the elderly, the disabled; those living at high altitude; those along rivers or aside hills or mountains with a high slope; those living in areas around mineral exploitation; children; households with a lack of labor. climate effects? Challenges that were commonly services would be needed to address increasing rates encountered in the workshops included: of migration--lack of basic services, poverty, unem- ployment, underemployment, and limited access to · Continued urbanization trends into the future, put- resources including food, water, and shelter in areas ting more pressure on municipal governments to with high migration. Therefore, population growth provide services like housing, energy and water, may be underestimated in master plans and plan- particularly in large rapidly growing cities like ning. Strained capacity will exist for infrastructure Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Better planning is as well as social services (education and health care) needed to deal with urbanization more effectively, at continued high migration rates. especially by creating centers for jobs in what are · Changes in the types of agriculture than can be presently small towns to relieve some of the labor practiced, both as a result of negative pressures from migration to big cities. There may also be chal- climate change and loss of agricultural lands to lenges in building and maintaining infrastructure in industrial expansion, but also potentially positive rural areas as they become less populated. trends like new technologies for climate resistant · More people will likely be employed in factories crops. and industries such as mining; as a result, people · There are likely to be pressures for more exploitation may lose their agricultural lands and be displaced of natural resources if conservation is not specifically into migrant jobs. Particular attention would need emphasized in development planning. Due to soil to be devoted to preventing land loss of smaller erosion in riverside and coastal areas, people are landholders because of urbanization, industrial already facing the loss of agricultural and aquaculture expansion, and accumulation of land by few owners land. More focused efforts on forest conservation and leading to large farms. Loss of land for agriculture reforestation to address current challenges of defores- without proper planning could lead to regional tation leading to negative impacts on local livelihoods shortages of food or food insecurity. and biodiversity, as well as exacerbating the effects of · Concurrent with urbanization, the high rates of drought, erosion, and bush fires, will be needed. migration of rural people into cities to find educa- · There will likely be potential shifts in aquaculture tion and work is likely to continue. Development of such as changes to practices that are feasible in 88 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m brackish water, especially in areas where freshwater is reduction in income resources for heavily-dependent polluted or less available. Due to salinity intrusion, tourist areas (i.e. Hoi An, Hue, Sapa, etc). there will likely be potential shifts in areas suitable · A growing and worrisome gap is likely to continue for aquaculture, and increased threats of water scar- between the incomes of the rich and the poor unless city. Due to demands for industrialization and urban- new policies to address it are developed. ization, exploitation of groundwater will likely exceed · Increased incidence of diseases such as sexually groundwater capacity without better planning, while transmitted diseases and malaria and other water- the quality of surface water in many rivers is being borne diseases, coupled with limited health care ser- degraded by pollution and saline intrusion. In addi- vices--especially in remote, rural areas--could occur tion, the level of river water tends to be lower and if more attention is not paid to public health services. lower in dry season because of climate change impacts like drought and saline intrusion. Megascale Overall, participants reported that further investigations hydropower in the upstream of the Mekong River in are necessary to better understand current vulnerabilities other countries like China will also have an impact. to challenges, including urbanization, industrialization, · Expanding opportunities for education in the future and climate variability; most of these challenges are are likely to lead to improvements in human capital already occurring. Participants also emphasized that there resources. However, targeted education will be needs to be a stronger focus on resource conservation needed to better reflect the changing job market, (including water and forests) and on addressing pollution. including sectoral changes. Plans to expand Finally, participants emphasized that observed changes Vietnam's economy into new service and industrial from current climate variability have negative impacts on sectors are dependent on increasing access to finan- increasing vulnerability of livelihoods that rely heavily on cial capital for investment and human capital in the the environment; for example, agriculture, which is highly form of skilled workers for these jobs. sensitive to fluctuations in temperature and rainfall, espe- · The number of tourists can be vulnerable to reduc- cially subsistence and rainfed agriculture. tions due to unexpected weather events as well as the disappearance of a number of scenic locations adaptation options: Key sectoral Themes due to sea level rise. This will also lead to the In each of the PSD workshops, groups were asked to come up with a list of prioritized adaptation options that would be suitable to the type of impacts and liveli- hoods found in the region on which the group was fiGure 22. ParTiCiPanT in The seCond concentrating. After this brainstorming, the groups then naTional WorKshoP resenTinG GrouP narrowed their ideas down to five key adaptation ideas in The Plenary. options. The participants considered each of the five adaptations offered in terms of their pro-poor level and rated this on a scale from 1 to 3. They also assessed the preconditions that would be needed for the adaptation option to happen, and any synergies with other options that were available. They also were to identify any trad- eoffs associated with the adaptation option. This process can be seen in one table created by the Mekong Delta group of the Second National Workshop (Table 58). The group came up with five key adaptation options to adapt to the increasing floods, sea level rise, and salinity that is likely to be common in the Mekong area. They agreed that option 3--on improved policy and planning--could be developed to address poor d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 89 people's problems, in which case it would be considered both new livelihoods for poor uplands people, as well as as a pro-poor adaptation option. Option 5 was also leading to better soil retention and prevention of land- considered as pro-poor (improving awareness), while slides for lowland peoples. Other types of integration other options were considered as only moderately pro- were also explored. For example, some groups were poor since they benefited not only poor people but all concerned that integration should happen between other groups. Among the five most important adapta- mitigation options and adaptation options. For example, tion options, the third (develop policy and planning) some workshop participants, particularly those based in and the fifth (awareness raising) were considered bene- urban areas that have higher levels of creation of green- ficial to all other options, with high synergy, since they house gases, pointed out at the workshops that urban helped draw attention and consent from the whole soci- areas could be a leader not just in creative adaptation to ety, although none of the five options were considered climate change but in the merging of adaptation with mutually exclusive as they all could be implemented mitigation options as well. Adaptation practices like alongside one another. The group's assessment was that building green-certified housing for the poor would none of these options had significant tradeoffs, although serve to both increase the adaptive capacity of the poor the preconditions that would be needed tended to focus (they would have housing that was more durable and on financial, technical, and personnel measures. could withstand the impacts of climate change) as well as contributing to mitigation (these houses would have Comparing across all the six PSD workshops, the types lower carbon emissions if they were built to greener of adaptation options suggested ranged widely. Below, standards than the typical urban apartments/houses). the key options from all the groups in all the PSD workshops are combined and organized by sector to Some adaptation proposals were found only for specific give a sense of this wide variety. No one sectoral regions. For example, in the central coast, a strong focus approach dominated any one group; most PSD work- emerged for emergency and disaster risk reduction plan- shops came up with a mix of options that spanned ning (in terms of information dissemination, evacuation different sectors as their preferred approaches. drills, etc.) for this area, given the particular impacts of strong and sudden typhoons. Mangrove afforestation Integration was a key cross-cutting theme in several was also highly ranked as a way to help dull the force of workshops, as the synergies between many options were storms as they hit the coast and thereby diminish some discussed. For example, planting trees might provide of their potential damaging winds and waters. Table 58. PrioriTized adaPTaTions oPTions and Their CharaCTerisTiCs for The meKonG delTa GrouP aT The seCond naTional WorKshoP Geographical focus and vulnerable # Adaptation options Pro-poor level Pre-condition Synergy Tradeoff groups 1 plant coastal mangrove 2 funding, advocacy, 2,3,5 none coastal areas, the forests management poor 2 Apply new technology (i.e. 2 funding, personnel 1,3,5 none Rural areas, improved rice varieties) (trained ones) farmers 3 develop policy and 1 (if they were Awareness and 1,2,4,5 none Whole areas, planning (esp. land-use directed toward participation of everybody planning) the poor) government officials and local authority 4 invest in infrastructure 2 funding 3,2 none Whole areas, everybody 5 improve awareness and 1 materials, funding, 1, 2, 3, 4 none Vulnerable groups, adaptation capacity personnel everybody Note: level 1 is considered as pro-poor, level 2 is moderate, and level 3 is not pro-poor. 90 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m box 6. PrioriTized adaPTaTion aCTions aCross Psd WorKshoPs Polices focused on integrated regional development: decentralized urbanization; establishment of sustainable communities; developing policies that support tailored activities for the regions and aimed at rural development. Changes in the agricultural sector: improving food security; livelihood diversification; research on new varieties and biotechnology; improved market systems; change of crop seasons and variety of crops and animal types to be more adaptive; food preservation tech- niques for times of shortages. Sustainable infrastructure development: investment in infrastructure, roads, and irrigation to higher standards; technical construction indicators to enhance resilience of the built form to flooding and storms; better transportation facilities, including use of cleaner energy (bio- fuels, electric cars and buses, etc); stronger irrigation systems and canal walls in agriculture; reinforcing and constructing sea-dyke sys- tems; application of renewable energy (i.e. biogas, solar energy, improved cookers, etc.); dredging river bed and sea coast to reduce flooding. Water sector: Rational management and use of water resources; combination of forest rehabilitation and afforestation with hard measures like water pipelines; improvement in wastewater treatment and water provision in urban areas; construction of water tanks and reservoirs for preservation of water in rainy season; construction of small-scale irrigation schemes; construction of dams to regulate flooding; research and more rational exploitation of groundwater; reinforcement of monitoring and supervision of water use by industry. Early warning systems and communication: creation of early warning systems to improve forecast and warnings about flash floods and extreme events for communities; education about climate change and natural disaster management; health education in the context of early warning and emergency preparedness (i.e. basic first aid training); establishment of climate change coordination and information centers at local level to collect and share data; public evacuation shelters for local people to stay during storm or flood. Social security systems: improved social welfare and security support systems; building of subsidized houses for low-income people; vocational training on tourism and other service industry fields; provision of credit and job creation training to those harmed by climate events. Forest sector: tree planting in cities; coastal mangrove planting; green space and parks in cities; rational exploitation, afforestation and forest protection; focus on planting indigenous trees. Policy and planning, integrated land use planning: applying strategic environmental assessment (sEA) more effectively; planning resi- dential areas out of vulnerable sites; resettlement for households in the risk areas with material supports; policies on favorable conditions for local ecocultural tourism; strict monitoring and supervision of implementation of the existing law and regulations, especially treatment of solid industrial waste; implementation of national target program on water, sanitation, and environment with a focus on remote and isolated areas; formulation of local strategic plans on climate change adaptation; integration of cc into other local projects; strengthening public administration and improving coordination between sectors. Private investment: attract private business investment in new sectors, like tourism. Capacity building: capacity building for local communities; improving and strengthening communication about activities on climate change; better awareness of the impacts of climate might lead to spontaneous adaptation options; improve or preserve indigenous culture/ knowledge; building capacity for local authorities and line agencies on participatory planning on climate change adaptation; capacity build- ing on community-based disaster risk management (cBRdm); training on swimming for children. adaptation Pathways: Key Preference Criteria, great diversity of options among groups. Secondly, sequencing, leveraging, and Tradeoffs among perhaps reflecting the backgrounds of participants-- options including government and local officials, academics, NGOs and others--no one pattern of adaptation The criteria that PSD participants used to create their options dominated either sectorally or in type of adap- preferred adaptation pathways varied considerably. The tation option (hard vs. soft). diversity of participants in the PSDs gave rise to a surprising diversity of adaptation options identified. Examples of the proposed pathways that the PSD One important finding was that no two groups had groups came up with are indicated on the following adaptation plans that were fairly similar; there was a page. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 91 box 7. adaPTaTion PaThWays ProPosed by Psd WorKshoP ParTiCiPanTs Central Coast Workshop group Pathways: Mountains: given projected climate change impacts of decreasing rainfall, and projected socioeconomic changes caused by drought, by 2015 we proposed an adaptation strategy entitled "future green" that seeks to meet the goals of minimizing the negative impact of natural disasters through a structured focus on increasing the plantation forest area and adaptation activities of resettlement, building reservoirs, shifting crop structure, and raising awareness. Lowlands: given projected climate change impacts of the increase of temperature, and projected socioeconomic changes caused by drought, by 2020 we proposed an adaptation strategy entitled "clean water for a healthy world" that seeks to meet the goals of protecting water resources through a structured focus on rational water resource management and use and adaptation activities of forest plantation and awareness raising. Coastal Areas: given projected climate change impacts of typhoons and floods, and projected socioeconomic changes like damaged hous- es and boats and increasing diseases, by 2020 we propose an adaptation strategy entitled "Actively confronting flood and typhoon" that seeks to meet the goals of minimizing damages and loss through a structured focus on developing early warning systems, and adaptation activities of raising awareness of local people and capacity building for local government, socioeconomic planning, and dredging river beds and coasts as well as using environmental friendly and clean power. Islands: given projected climate change impacts of sea level rise and increasing typhoons and floods, and projected socioeconomic chang- es of land loss and decreases in biodiversity, damages of infrastructure, and threat to people's lives, by 2030 we propose an adaptation strategy entitled "island is like our virtuous mother" that seeks to meet the following goals of protection of the ecosystem and improvement of local people's quality of life, through a structured focus on developing management regulations for biosphere reserves and residential area planning and adaptation activities like developing dike systems, developing environmental protection projects, and awareness raising. Northern Mountains Workshop group Pathways: Rocky highlands: Under the impacts of climate change--such as flash floods, droughts, extreme events including cold spells, and increas- ing temperature--and under future socioeconomic scenarios characterized by threatened food security, rapid urbanization, increasing min- eral exploitation, increasing environment pollution and lack of water, by 2030 we propose a strategy named "development of highland Rocky mountains" through focused interventions of enhanced awareness of the protection of the rocky resources; enhancement of local ethnic diversity and cultures; call for investment from private tourist companies; development of various tourism initiatives such as communi- ty-based tourism or adventure and ecotourism; reduction of industry development and agriculture; and building capacity for the local ethnic groups in community tourism. Lowlands: Under the impacts of climate change such as flash floods, heavy rainfall, landslides and droughts, and under the future socioeco- nomic scenarios of increasing population, development of industry, services and trade sectors; more modern infrastructure, and improved incomes, by 2030 we propose strategies of development of qualified human resources for the region with the special attention to women and ethnic minorities in the qualified labor force and sustainable forest exploitation. the adaptation activities for the first strategy include capacity building for pre-primary, secondary school, and high schools of vocational training, especially in remote and ethnic minority areas, together with upgrading the school infrastructure, environmental education in schools; high schools of vocational training are strongly linked with the business sector in the locality; creating and maintaining favorable working environment to attract the qualified labor force to work in locality. Mountainous areas: Under the impacts of climate change, including flash floods, landslides, cold spells, increased rainfall in the rainy season, reduced rainfall in the dry season, and the vision of the socioeconomic development of more developed infrastructure, increased population, the productive land becomes more exhausted, reduced agriculture land, new diseases for human and animals increased environment pollution, and reduced level of water supply in sources, by 2030 we propose a strategy of "development of ecocultural tourism" in combination with sustain- able forestry development, through the focus on protection, maintenance, and development of traditional culture values and development of tra- ditional products, for example, "shan tuyet" traditional tea plants, with the aims of socioeconomic development with sustainable environment protection. Adaptation measures are proposed such as forest plantation and protection, community-based forest management system; disaster risks management and climate change adaptation awareness raising among local communities, market outlets identification for forests-based products, ecotourism models, historical relics preservation, and promotion of clean energy sources that are environmentally friendly. Central Highlands Workshop group Pathways: Highlands: given projected climate change impacts of increasing temperature and changes in rainfall, and projected socioeconomic chang- es of rapid population growth, by 2030 we propose an adaptation strategy entitled "Water for life" that seeks to meet the goals of food secu- rity through structured focus on sustainable agriculture and adaptation activities of sustainable forest plantation and protection, planning and Continued on next page 92 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m box 7. adaPTaTion PaThWays ProPosed by Psd WorKshoP ParTiCiPanTs (continued) rational use of water resources, rational planning of residential areas, planning and stabilizing agricultural land, changing cropping systems, and improving local people's livelihoods. Lowlands: given projected climate change impacts of increased temperatures and changes in rainfall, and projected socioeconomic chang- es of rapid population growth and urbanization, by 2030 we propose an adaptation strategy entitled "forest for All" that seeks to meet the goals of sustainable livelihoods and environmental protection through structured focus on forest development, food security and sustainable income from forest and adaptation activities of allocation of forest land to households for development and protection, community-based for- est protection models, and environmental education campaigns in order to change people's habit of using forest products. Second National Workshop group Pathways: Urban: given projected climate change impacts of significant temperature variations and increased seasonal precipitation, and projected socioeconomic changes due to in-migration and urbanization, by 2030 we propose an adaptation strategy entitled "green life" that seeks to meet the following goals of sustainable development through structured focus on greening cities and focusing adaptation activities on build- ing social houses for low-income people, and improving wastewater treatment and water provision technologies. Mekong: given projected climate change impacts of sea level rise, and projected socioeconomic changes of increasing food security by 2030 we propose an adaptation strategy entitled "gold Rice development" that seeks to meet the following goals of ensuring food security and export of rice through structured focus on developing new rice breeds with drought and saline tolerance, and constructing water irriga- tion systems to enable farmers to produce this rice for export as well as local consumption. Coastal: given projected climate change impacts of typhoons in particular, and projected socioeconomic changes caused by infrastructure damage and decreases in agricultural production, by 2030 we propose an adaptation strategy entitled "protection of coastal and Red River delta areas" that seeks to meet the following goal of social stability through structured focus on prevention and mitigation of the impacts of storms through activities of mangrove afforestation and sea-dyke reinforcement and construction. Northern Mountains: from now until 2030, the northern mountains will face these major climate change features: temperature and rainfall increases and decreases, leading to variable weather, with impacts in the socioeconomic context of shifts in economic sectors and profes- sions over time (away from agriculture and toward services) and population increases as well. consequently, the northern mountains region should develop under a strategy known as "forest and community." in order to move toward sustainable development, this region will focus on rational exploitation, afforestation and forest protection through activities including co-management, improving and promoting the indige- nous ethnic minority culture/knowledge, and strengthening of sustainable livelihoods for local inhabitants. Central Highlands: given projected climate change impacts of increasing temperature, and projected socioeconomic changes of population growth combined with migration, we propose an adaptation strategy entitled "Water for life" that seeks to meet the following goals of sustain- able livelihoods through structured focus on forest rehabilitation and afforestation and adaptation activities of improving people's awareness on climate change, changing cropping systems, and rational water resources use and management. Despite the success in identifying a number of adapta- between options, such that choosing one option might tion options, the PSD was less successful in getting create certain path dependencies that would obviate the participants to consider timing or tradeoffs in these choice of other options down the road, teams had trou- choices. It was difficult for participants to conceptualize ble organizing their pathways into clearly sequenced these ideas and apply them in their group work. Many events, and instead chose to focus primarily on end- groups said their selected adaptation options had no goals of where the teams wanted their development tradeoffs, only to acknowledge in the final plenary that paths to end in the future. there may have been some which they had not had time to consider. The tradeoffs that were mentioned tended Relative Prevalence of "Hard" versus "Soft" to be loss of land to infrastructure projects, or changes Adaptation Options in traditional cultures that accompany development activities. It was also difficult for the participants to Most groups came up with a mix of options that focus on the timing and sequencing of options. While emphasized both hard and soft options, and which were most groups recognized the synergies and linkages fairly closely integrated with one another (Table 59). d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 93 fiGure 23. examPle of PaThWays idenTified in GrouP WorK in seCond naTional WorKshoP Sometimes some of the groups leaned more toward Policy Preconditions and institutional base hard options, and several groups promoted only soft options, but no group promoted hard options only. For Teams came up with a number of things that are likely example, in several groups, afforestation of mangroves to be preconditions for adaptation actions in the future. was actually ranked above the hard infrastructural The most common preconditions were basics like option of sea-dyke repair, given the lower costs of money, knowledge, research, technology, and capacity. mangrove planting and the potential for it to be more However, other prerequisites were also mentioned by at pro-poor. This provides some indication to the cost- least one PSD, including participation, beliefs and trust, benefit analysis that is part of the EACC analysis that monitoring, transparency, and accountability. Key take- even "cheaper" soft options are very much on the table away points are: for many of the people engaged with climate change in Vietnam, and that these softer options should be · Investment in climate change will be needed from included in discussions of adaptation in the future, both central budget and donors whether these discussions are held by donors like the · Active learning on climate change needs to take World Bank or by others. place 94 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m Table 59. overvieW of TyPes of PrioriTized adaPTaTion oPTions aCross all reGions from Psd WorKshoPs Soft Adaptation Options Hard Adaptation Options tree planting (U, md, cA, nm) Build houses for low-income people (U) forest use and protection (nm, ch) improve wastewater treatment technologies (U, md) policy and planning (esp. land-use planning)(md) Build modern transport system (U) improve awareness and adaptation capacity (md) Use clean and renewable energy (i.e. solar and biogas) (U, md) information, especially on disaster risk management (cA) and Apply new technology (i.e. improved rice varieties) (md, cA) early warning systems (ch, md) livelihood diversification (cA, nm, ch) invest in infrastructure (md, nm) intensify human resources development (nm) Reinforce and construct sea-dyke system (cA) improve indigenous culture/knowledge (nm) construct water tanks and reservoirs (nm) Apply strategic environmental assessment (sEA) more effectively in govt planning (ch) improving people's awareness on climate change (ch) change in cropping systems timing (ch, nm) Ecotourism and adventure tourism promotion (nm) Rational management and use of water resources (ch) and groundwater (nm) integration of climate into other sector's policy and planning (ch) u = urban areas; md = mekong delta; nm = northern mountains; Ch = Central highlands; Ca = Coastal areas. · Research on climate impacts and adaptation options capacity, and to have action plans in all ministries and should be the focus of many research projects sectors and localities to respond. Specific actions are · Technology training needs to be shared with more thus lacking in the NTP, as these are left to ministries people (i.e. early warning systems, plant breeding) themselves to sort out in ministerial action plans (GOV · Capacity needs to be upgraded by improving oppor- 2008). tunities for participation. Specific adaptation activities mentioned in NTP that Con GruenC e WiT h n aTional Pla n s the government intends to focus on include new i n CludinG naPa s technologies in agriculture, new planning for river basins and water management, and quarantines for To what degree do the adaptation pathways identified diseases and community hygiene projects. In coastal in the PSD workshops match the adaptation policy areas, the NTP calls for integrated coastal zone outlined for Vietnam in official documents? As noted management plans, infrastructure adapted to sea level earlier, Vietnam has not yet completed a NAPA, but has rise, storm early warning systems, research on the instead a National Target Program on Climate Change function of ecosystems like mangroves, and sea-dyke (NTP). In terms of specific details on adaptation, the reinforcement. In mountainous areas, the NTP calls NTP primarily calls for pilot projects on coping with for a strategy to protect biodiversity, expand forestry, climate change, construction of legal frameworks and strengthen communication, integrate agroforestry, and awareness raising, human resources development, inter- expand irrigation. These activities are all left to the national cooperation, and mainstreaming of climate into individual ministries that form the NTP coordinating local plans and the national socioeconomic planning committee to implement, and appear to be more like process. The NTP calls for stakeholder consultations to a "shopping list" of options rather than a coordinated identify measures to respond to climate change, to build national plan. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 95 Clearly, the NTP has focused more on harder options Climate change poses a primary challenge to continuing than soft ones, and in this it varies quite a lot from the Vietnam's 7 percent GDP growth rate, as has been PSD workshops, which had a much more explicit focus accomplished in the past, through to 2020 and beyond. on soft options, and which covered a very broad variety Some participants discussed how policy choices that of sectors. The NTP also has not had an explicit focus Vietnam has made in the past have primarily been on integration of adaptation options across sectors, made to favor current growth over future risk; examples given the fact that individual ministries are developing were given of poorly planned minerals exploration in their own plans, many of which are not likely to be upland areas that created a situation where upland integrated across sectors. Finally, the NTP does not peoples had less access to forest land that had been have an explicitly pro-poor focus in its adaptation developed for minerals, which increased their vulnera- approach, while PSD teams did a good job of identify- bility to climate in the future. In other words, Vietnam's ing and prioritizing those options that had higher bene- chosen development trajectory has potentially increased fits for the poor. the risk of future climate change impacts for some sectors (agriculture, fishing, and tourism being the ones Con C lusions from WorKsho P T r aC K most at risk in discussions in PSD workshops). Changing these trajectories in light of the impacts that The PSD approach was a new one for many people are predicted will be a major challenge. who attended our workshops. Several people expressed surprise that they had been asked to take such an active Discussion in the PSD workshops focused on the fact role all day, as many workshops in Vietnam are primar- that managing climate change requires a process that ily passive ones in which invitees simply come to listen. focuses not just on narrow adaptation policy alone (i.e. Overall, most participants noted that the PSD plenary the creation of an NTP for climate change) but also sessions and afternoon discussions had clarified for needs to include clear consideration of climate change them the types of detailed impacts that are projected for risk in relation to economic growth and development Vietnam, and allowed them to think about vulnerabili- strategies that fall outside of the purview of the environ- ties in open-ended ways. Most left with strengthened mental ministries. PSD participants highlighted in their knowledge about the strong regional diversity of adaptation options and pathways that in order to main- impacts likely to hit Vietnam. The final consensus of all stream climate change into existing policy, these trad- workshops was that the PSD approach had been a eoffs need to be made more explicit, such as weighing success, even though it was a new technique for many near-term growth prospects against future risk exposure. of the participants. Many participants expressed strong The need to include different stakeholders, who might support for the active learning principles embodied in put different priorities on these benefits and risks in the PSD approach. different ways, was highlighted, and the need to have inclusive bottom-up processes was also emphasized. 96 6. synThesis and disCussion Those dependent on natural resource occupations were also identified as vulnerable. In Cu Lao Cham islands, fisher families are directly vulnerable to storms, espe- v ulnerabiliT y ConCerns cially if they are out away from shore in boats and have no warning of impending danger. They are also vulnera- As discussed in chapter 2, vulnerability comprises expo- ble as they lack alternatives to fishing: there are no agri- sure to climate changes; sensitivity of people and places cultural opportunities on their island and no other jobs. to those changes; and the adaptive capacity or resilience In Kon Tum, most agriculture was subsistence-oriented of the people or system to respond to those changes. In and highly vulnerable to weather. In the wake of terms of exposure, Vietnam will have to face many Typhoon Ketsana in September 2009, many of the resi- different types of climate changes in the next 50 years, dents' fields were covered with sand that had been with different regions facing different problems. For Ha blown in by the storm, and food production had Giang, the primary indicators of exposure were increas- decreased by about 50 percent compared to the previous ing cold spells during winter, drought during spring and year. In Ha Giang, an extended drought for 8 months summer, and flash floods in the late summer. In Kon had resulted in only about 20 percent of rice being irri- Tum, exposure hazards were effects from coastal storms gated, and there were expected drops of at least half in blowing further inland than they had in the past (espe- terms of production. cially Typhoon Ketsana in 2009), and droughts in spring. In Quang Nam, the main hazards were coastal Ethnic minorities were also considered most vulnerable, and river flooding and typhoons in the fall season. In particularly in Kon Tum and Ha Giang. Many minori- the Mekong Delta, the main exposures were hotter ties live in more remote areas and thus are harder to days, increased floods and droughts, new storms track- reach with immediate weather storm warnings. Longer ing southward, and sea level rise. term information planning is also hampered by their lack of fluency in spoken Vietnamese or inability to read. most immediately vulnerable Groups Other vulnerable groups identified in local areas In all fieldsites the poor were identified as especially include: vulnerable. In Hoi An town, the poor had unstable employment (mostly wage labor) which could be lost if · Senior citizens, who lack mobility to avoid sudden excessive flooding and storms occurred. In Kon Tum, or disastrous weather events in Kon Tum, and who poor households were less likely to have stored food or were considered to be vulnerable to cold spells and savings to rely on during periods of famine. In the sickness in Ha Giang Mekong Delta, the poor were more likely to be landless · Women, especially women who have recently given or migrants. birth and are prone to illness as a result d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 97 · Children, who are vulnerable to cold spells in Ha areas (Adger et al. 2005). This has reduced resil- Giang and kept home from school if it is too cold, ience of many coastal communities, both in terms of or who are susceptible to drowning during floods in having less protection from storms, but also eco- the Mekong Delta if they don't learn to swim nomic losses from the conversion of mangroves-- · Those with low levels of education which were previously open-access or · Those who lack sanitation and freshwater were also community-managed--where aquatic goods could identified in Ha Giang, as the recent drought has be collected freely (Le Thi Van Hue 2001; Adger et meant rationing of household water. al. 2005). Mangrove replanting has been encour- aged in coastal areas from reforestation programs The good news is that some of these vulnerable groups and the mangrove area is on the increase again, but are already receiving attention and support from remains well below the amount of mangroves that national target programs like the 134 Poverty Program were cut down in the last 20 years in the name of and Program 167 to build houses for the poor. Ethnic coastal development (Nguyen Hong Tri et al. 2003). minorities are also targeted under several regional Much of this shrimp expansion was deliberately programs funded by the central government. The bad encouraged by government policy, including news is that much of this support is inadequate or through land tenure certificates for privatizing once inflexible or unrelated to climate risks. For example, in common mangrove areas, preferential taxation, and many places the housing support programs do not targeted credit and investment such as large unse- provide enough money to build adequately sized houses, cured loans to encourage conversion to shrimp (EJF and the houses were not necessarily built with storm- 2004). Conflicts between agriculturalists and resistant materials, given the small amounts of funding shrimp farmers have increased, particularly in the available. In another example, safety net services like Mekong Delta, as shrimp ponds have moved into free access to health care or educational subsidies for new areas. children are usually tied to having an official household · Access to common pool resources is declining, residency permit. Undocumented migrants, especially in exposing people to greater vulnerabilities. large urban areas, do not have official residency permits Household livelihoods are becoming less diverse in and as such, cannot access social programs. More flexi- some regions due to a loss of supplementary income bility in the household residency system would allow from commons that have been privatized, such as people to access benefits no matter where they moved income from crabs, clams, worms in coastal flats in the county; this is one example of how existing and medicines, and foods and timber in forested programs could be better "climate-proofed." areas, particularly for women. This has had particu- lar impacts on vulnerable populations, like women emerging drivers of vulnerability and the poor, who lose their access to freely col- lected goods (Le Thi Van Hue 2006; McElwee In addition to increased climatic impacts, Vietnam has 2009). As Le (2006) argues, "rapid changes in local in recent years been undergoing national trends that land use systems, ownership, management practices may foretell increased vulnerability to global tempera- of mangrove resources and institutional arrange- ture changes. These include: ments in response to Doi Moi have weakened the livelihoods of poor households and sidestepped · Extensive losses of mangroves, particularly in the women in particular, while opening up economic Mekong Delta, due to pressure from shrimp farm- opportunities for others, especially well-off house- ing for global export. Many coastal provinces holds and men. Doi Moi, in effect, has built on and reported dramatic drops in hectares of land under reinforced social heterogeneity and power and mangroves in the 1980s and 90s and a great resource differences with communities." increase in land under shrimp farming. Shrimp · Social safety nets that were provided during the ponds are usually dug in mangrove areas to take cooperative era have eroded, leaving households advantage of daily tides, which has increased vul- who are not under the poverty line with more indi- nerability to storm exposure throughout coastal vidual responsibilities for schools and health fees, 98 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m and less likely to contribute to public collective away from monocultures to diverse cropping sys- activities like dike maintenance (Adger 1999a, b). tems. The thinking is that diversification can raise · Localized deforestation and land degradation. productivity, increase value, and provide a hedge There has been an expansion of overall forest cover, against price drops or production drops in any one rising from 28 percent of the land area in 1990 to crop sector. Ironically, as the rest of Vietnam has more than 38 percent in 2005, but a decline in "old been encouraged to diversify into new crops, ethnic growth" and natural forest and a rise only in planta- minorities in particular are moving away from their tion forestry, which may not serve the same climate traditional diversity. Many crops traditionally and soil regulating functions (Meyfroidt and important to minorities--millet, sorghum, flax, Lambin 2008). Many of the forest products that hemp--are not high value and are gradually being households once may have used as supplements to replaced by things that can be planted in monocrops cultivated food--wild leaves and vegetables, forest and can be sold, such as corn, cassava, and honey, wild animals--are becoming increasingly sugarcane. rare as forest areas have receded or become overex- ploited. Deforestation has led to increasing danger links between extreme events and long-Term of landslides in the rainy season in many parts of Climate Change the country, and lack of tree cover was one reason why Typhoon Ketsana had such a extensive impact Households and communities in Vietnam now face a on the inland province of Kon Tum. The majority variety of extreme events--droughts, storms, floods, and of respondents in a World Bank survey of ethnic other examples. The overall changes predicted under minority areas reported that the quality of the envi- future climate scenarios will unfold over many years; for ronment was worse now than it was 10 years ago. example, sea level rise will likely be slow, on the order of Among the main problems cited: drought (reported a few centimeters or so a year. What is the relationship by 60.7 percent of respondents), shortage of timber between extreme events and long-term climate change? for building houses (52.2 percent), livestock diseases This question has not been explored in much detail for (50.3 percent), human diseases (48.4 percent), mos- Vietnam. In general, we can say that if households are quitoes (42.9 percent), decline in soil fertility (40.4 resilient to extreme events, the assumption is that they percent), scarcity of drinking water (40.1 percent), can adapt to slow climate change if the worst-case and scarcity of land (38.7 percent) (World Bank scenarios are dealt with. Alternatively, however, just 2009). All of these problems exacerbate future vul- because communities are not resilient in the face of nerability to climate change. extreme hazards does not mean that they could not face · General decline in the diversity of crops harvested long-term climate change that occurred slowly. For in many agricultural areas, due to single-crop pat- example, an example of a community that might have terns encouraged for export agriculture and a loss of been resilient if a familiar threat had occurred was Dak traditional flood-resistant rice varieties to hybrid Tram commune in Kon Tum. Faced with an unprece- and HYV seeds. Government programs and proj- dented event that had never happened in living memory ects have focused in recent years on providing input (a typhoon that blew in tons of sand), people did not materials for cultivation, particularly the expansion know what to do. The community failed to be resilient; of high-yield seed varieties and use of inputs like they are still waiting for something or someone to fertilizers and pesticides, through agricultural remove sand from their fields, 6 months after the storm. extension and credit programs, as well as through A slower event, however, such as long-term declines in investments in irrigation infrastructure. For exam- precipitation, could perhaps be more easily dealt with in ple, ethnic minorities are often given discounts on Dak Tram, as communities in Ha Giang were doing in input materials up to 50 percent or even more, and switching away from rice and toward growing grass for reduced prices on seeds and fertilizer. One reason fodder as water levels have been low the past 2 years. for this support is to encourage the diversification of agriculture away from certain lower value crops One problem with the long-term changes that will (rice) to higher value ones (industrial crops) and likely accompany global temperature rise are the fact d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 99 that slow changes are harder to see than sudden storm thin in its coverage or provides so little in terms of events. Further, climate changes that are out of the support. Such self-insurance includes options like sell- experience of local people means they will lack a knowl- ing assets or borrowing from relatives and friends. But edge base to deal with them. For example, coral bleach- the poorest households have very few options for self- ing and loss of fish in the Cu Lao Cham islands is insurance. Many households indicated that they need likely to take place over a longer period, even as house- better access to credit and subsidies for borrowing after holds there want to scale up their opportunities for natural resource calamites (such as the households in ecotourism and home stays. They may develop such Ha Giang, who noted that the major cause for poverty options just as they are losing the natural resources on was a recent flood and storm in 2008, which some which the tourism would be based. If households there households still had not recovered from). Therefore one had better long-term forecasts for marine reef resources, indication of adaptive capacity at a provincial or district they might choose to develop a different pathway for level might involve analysis of the availability of credit the future. and other financial support to households (obtainable from analysis of the frequent Rural and Agricultural a da PT ive CaPa CiT ies Censuses). It is hard to measure adaptive capacity in Vietnam. For local governments, the main adaptation actions so Much of what we see now in terms of actions are really far have been infrastructure development. For example, only short-term coping mechanisms, while attention to in Hoi An the urban authorities have constructed a long-term adaptation is not very strong. For example, in cement pavement along the bank of the river to prevent Hoi An town, households have simply grown used to erosion. In Cu Lao Cham, the Army has provided safe yearly floods, and at least 1 or 2 months before the evacuation shelters for some residents. In Ha Giang, flood season they start moving their household assets small hydropower projects to reserve water during the (like refrigerator, washing machine, etc,) upstairs. Even dry season have been constructed on small streams. if their homes are flooded several meters high, they "Thinking outside the box" on adaptation in creative usually just stay on their second stories and wait for the ways was not yet seen in any fieldsites. floods to subside. They felt they could take no other course of action to adapt to the floods. In Cu Lao There were also indicators of a lack of adaptive capacity. Cham, households try to tie down their roofs and some For example, in Cu Lao Cham, because an army even leave the island for the mainland during the storm outpost has also been established on their island, the season to avoid damage, but livelihood changes were not fisher families have become somewhat dependent on yet seen. the army to provide support to them, such as storm warnings, helping evaluate residents, providing emer- Some proactive adaptation was noted in Ha Giang gency supplies, etc. This has "crowded out" local collec- more than in other areas, a place with strong social tive action because the residents expect the army capital and indigenous traditions. For example, the support instead. In other fieldsites, such as the Mekong erratic cold spells that have been experienced in recent Delta, respondents mentioned that they had no idea years have led households to experiment with feeding what to do about climate change, and they would "wait different crops to animals (such as a local herb that is for the government" to tackle it. supposed to keep the animals' stomach warm) or keep- ing them inside pens near warm fires. The Ha Giang adaptation options and future Pathways farmers are also proactive at storing seeds and experi- menting with new crops like vegetables or peanuts that The most striking finding about adaptation options in they hope might be more hardy to weather changes. the fieldsites was how different the strategies were. In Quang Nam coastal areas, the main options identified There are many strategies that households adopt to were to raise awareness of local fishermen about the cope with risk, but these are primarily self-insurance need for storm prevention, to provide correct and exact strategies in Vietnam, as the public safety net is often so information of weather in time, to use natural resources 100 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m rationally, and to plan the residential area rationally in Key points to ensure localized, appropriate adaptation Hoi An town (i.e. resettlement away from flooded that have come out of the fieldwork and PSD work- areas). In other words, disaster risk reduction was the shops are that: primary focus. Yet in Kon Tum, residents indicated a need to have allocated forest rights, so that they might · Both autonomous and planned adaptations will be have safety nets to support sustainable development and needed. Autonomous adaptation seems to be hap- ensure food security. Community-based forest protec- pening in the agricultural and residential sectors tion models and environmental education campaigns in primarily, as households plant new seeds or build order to change people's habit of using forest products new houses. Planned adaptation has primarily were recommended actions. Rational water use was also focused on infrastructure development, such as irri- a proposed strategy, given projections for increasingly gation or building reservoirs. Future planning will frequent drought by 2030. Thus in Kon Tum, the adap- need to find a away to integrate both spontaneous tation focus was on access and control of natural and planned adaptations. resources. In Ha Giang, adaptation suggestions include · Hard and soft adaptation will be needed. Most better development planning, particularly for small-scale participants in PSD workshops prioritized soft irrigation, and changing cropping systems to more resil- adaptation over hard adaptation options. Yet in pol- ient varieties. This focus could be classified as small- icy documents like the NTP and in the draft action scale sustainable development. And in the Mekong plans for climate change of several ministries like Delta, residents suggested changing varieties and crop- MARD, the focus is primarily on hard adaptation ping, setting up seed banks, migrating to cities for work, options (new irrigation systems, dams, sea walls, or looking into new household industries like handi- and dykes, etc). There is a disconnect in the under- crafts; in other words, this strategy was more about live- standing that soft adaptation can play an important lihood diversification. role as well. Furthermore, some soft adaptation options are actually discouraged in existing law, These findings make clear that one-size-fits-all adapta- such as labor migration. Following years of strict tion will not work for Vietnam. Different communities regulation of labor migration and household regis- among the different regions will have different ideas tration, many officials still view labor migration as a about how best to match their development objectives problem, not as a potential solution. A focus on soft to the realities of climate change impacts on these path- adaptation strategies would help officials see that ways. Because these diverse views have not yet been migration could be a policy option, not a failure of heard in the development the policies like the NTP, policy. As evidenced from the central coast (partic- there is a danger that decisions will be made at the top ularly Hoi An) and the Mekong Delta, where that create path-dependency. That is, if the central remittances are a significant part of the household government views the resettlement of households away asset base, migrants in the household form an from coastal areas as a key adaptation option, but fails important part of livelihood portfolio diversifica- to address the ramifications of uprooting households tion. While migration can increase vulnerability in from their livelihoods without helping them find new the short term (especially when young male labor is ones, there could be massive social unrest and long-term the migrant pool and households might lose the problems. "High regrets" adaptation options, that is, very people who could help keep houses safe in options that have high irreversibility, need very careful storms, etc.), over the long term the use of migrant assessment. Examples might include sea dykes along the anchors can be an important part of household Mekong coast--where sea dykes have never been strengthening and resilience over time. built--that could interfere with water flow coming · Both community and individual adaptation will down the Mekong River; such high-regrets actions be needed. So far we see individual households should be carefully considered only as last resorts, before doing adaptation, and some local authorities and other forms of low-regret and no-regret actions are government institutions doing adaptation, but the taken. "in-between" area of local villages and neighbor- hoods has not shown much action. That these d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 101 communities lack resources is a given, but in relatively weak authority, especially at provincial levels Vietnam many communities also lack "space"-- and below, in terms of authority and in technical capa- authorities have played a large role in the past, and bility (O'Rourke 2002). it is difficult to get out of the mindset that the gov- ernment should always be in the lead. Communities In the absence of new formal mechanisms for adapta- don't know what they are allowed to do; there have tion guidance, the Central Committee for Flood and been examples of communities that tried to do Storm Control (CCFSC) remains the primary national things proactively and were then told by higher government entity actively involved in climate actions authorities that they had no right to spend money in down to the local level. The CCFSC, which includes a certain way without permission. Communities representatives of all major line ministries, is supposed also have problems with long-term thinking, since to gather data and monitor flood and storms and issue much focus on local action is to meet short-term warnings and forecasts, and offices of the CCFSC at yearly targets. each province are tasked with coordinating local · Adaptation can be cost-effective. Households are measures such as dyke protection and post-flood recov- eager and willing to take small actions that can be ery efforts (Chaudry and Ruysschaaert 2007). However, quite cost-effective. Examples include trying new institutionally the CCFSC is aimed more at short-term seeds or raising goats instead of cattle. These sorts forecasting and coping, and not long-term adaptation, of actions can be less than $100 per household per and the small amounts of money given for these activi- year in many cases. For these types of actions, ties (usually not more than 1­5 percent of the localities' households might be likely to bear the costs of these yearly budget) means that very little gets done. adaptation actions themselves, if they were provided with opportunities like credit or insurance schemes. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Furthermore, when we compare the scope of annual also plays a role in climate-related issues. They have adaptation costs versus costs of impacts, it is likely been the most proactive ministry in seeking to come up to seem even more cost-effective. In other words, with adaptation action plans, even before instructed to adaptation options do not need to be only large by the NTP. MARD adopted a steering committee for ticket items for donors to fund; smaller actions are their Action Plan of Adaptation and Mitigation to likely to be as effective. Climate Change in 2007 (Dang Thu Phuong 2008). Provincial DARD offices are responsible for advising loC al and n aTional disCourse o n the People's Committee on agricultural, forestry, and ClimaTe a nd hazards: inPu Ts To fisheries development, and are particularly responsible de C ision s uPP orT s ysT ems for disaster control and damage; pest and epidemic disease recovery; protection of the dyke system, irriga- Although there is much concern in the government and tion, aquaculture, water supply, drainage system; work development realms in Vietnam over climate change, that controls storms and floods; and management of the decision support system to implement new irrigation systems. As such, they are the ministry most approaches is not yet in place. The major problem in likely to be doing climate adaptation-type actions at dealing with climate adaptation at the provincial level provincial levels and below. and below in particular is often a lack of human resources and poor information. The issues are often The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) also understood as natural disasters, not something that has a strong role to play in government decision support requires long-term planning or adaptation. At the for climate change. Ministries and provincial authorities national level, there is also unclear authority spread have to send their planned activities and matching among a number of ministries and committees. While budget each year to the MPI to prepare for a compre- the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment hensive national budget. MPI has a science department (MoNRE) is the key ministry on climate change in to provide input to the ministry and climate change terms of their explicit role, as they are the coordinating adaptation is one of the areas of their work. However, institution for the National Target Program, they have staff at MPI believe that their understanding of climate 102 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m change and climate change adaptation is quite limited. mechanical means (Le Hai Duong et al. 2007; IEMA For example, in order to improve industrialization and and McElwee 2005). One driver of this agricultural exports, the upgrading of several harbors to interna- change has been high world prices for several cash crop tional standards has been planned and budgeted for in commodities, first coffee, then cashew and tea, and now MPI; however, representatives from MPI confirmed increasingly rubber. Coffee planting in unsuitable lands that these planning targets do not yet take into account has been a major source of environmental degradation any climate change impacts, which might make such in the Central Highlands region, "as many fields were development goals more expensive or harder to reach. It established on poor soils with very steep slopes and is clear that climate change has not yet been main- high rates of soil erosion, and in areas prone to drought. streamed into most socioeconomic planning for the Inexperienced farmers cut down shade trees to maxi- country. mize production, and chemical fertilizers were also overused" (World Bank 2009). This switch in the use of mulT ise CToral a nalysis and highland fields has increased vulnerability in many Pro G rammin G areas, most seriously, through loss of fertility as fields are used for longer periods and fallowed for shorter Natural resources management policy has a great effect periods (or not fallowed at all). The problem of cash on vulnerability and adaptation because it influences cropping has also affected water supplies, as electric such issues as land rights, agricultural production, water groundwater pumps have become widespread. About 40 allocation, and other related topics. Natural resources per cent of current coffee acreage is irrigated by ground- policy has changed significantly in the Doi Moi era, water (requiring about 66 million cubic meters during generally moving from centralized control of land and the dry season in the spring), and has resulted in means of production to a more devolved privatized dramatic reductions in the water table in the Central system of land rights held by individuals and house- Highlands and drying up of surface water in dry years holds. Doi Moi has unleashed market forces on agricul- (D'Haeze et al. 2003). Spring droughts have occurred tural systems that were collectively held for many years. frequently in the last few years and have highlighted the For example, farmers who in the past were able to rely precarious water situation. on government price supports for their crops are now directly affected by changes in the world rice market, Even as the government policy has been to encourage and world markets for other commodities. This can lead diversification, there has been a reduction in species those who are already vulnerable to be even more at risk. diversity, both in upland rainfed agriculture as well as in Farmers are also less likely to be able to rely on govern- lowland irrigated rice, where new hybrid and high- ment support in the forms of free extension, preferential yielding varieties have increased in use while local vari- credit, reduced-cost pesticides and fertilizers, and eties, such as local cultivars of maize in the uplands and government marketing of crops. The more individual- the indigenous "floating rice" formerly found in the ized, household-oriented production brought about by frequently flooded Mekong Delta, have declined Doi Moi may be increasing per capita productivity, but (McElwee 2007b). The shift away from local varieties it is clear that it may also bring many unforeseen conse- to improved ones has contributed to rising incomes and quences to the most vulnerable farmers. The lack of increased agricultural production in the short term, but attention to vulnerability and climate change in the agri- these changes may also be introducing new forms of cultural sector stands out as a cautionary tale, and as a vulnerability in the long term. That is, the trends away place where multisectoral linkages are sorely needed. from diversification and toward single crops and single varieties may render agricultural households less resil- The biggest trends in agriculture among socially vulner- ient to climate events. able peoples (particularly the poor and ethnic minori- ties) include a marked reduction in the use of traditional Such increased vulnerabilities can be seen clearly in the agricultural practices, particularly in non-irrigated agri- Mekong Delta as it has shifted to HYVs over the past cultural areas, such as a reduction in fallow cropping 30 years. The indigenous "floating" varieties previously cycles and a move toward more tillage of land through common were uniquely adapted to flooding, as they d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 103 elongate their internodes directly in accordance with problems in the inadequate system of infrastructure. water levels, and can be grown in water up to 12 feet Understanding what is not working now, before build- deep. Most HYVs, however, are not adapted to sudden ing new systems, as is called for in the NTP, is neces- inundation and flooding. However, while the floating sary. Problems include sea dykes that are too low in the rice is highly adaptive to the hydrological balance of the RRD; river tributaries that are often backed up due to area, it is unfortunately not highly productive. Since poor irrigation, drainage, and pumping infrastructure, 1983, more than 300,000 ha of floating rice land in the exacerbating the flooding caused by natural events; the Mekong Delta has been converted to double cropped age of much flood and irrigation infrastructure, some of land through improvements in irrigation, decreasing the which dates back to the French colonial era in the early deepwater rice-growing areas from their pre-war peak of 1900s; improving land use planning, as currently much 1.26 million ha (nearly half the Delta's total land area) land designed for agricultural production has been (Vo Tong Xuan et al. 1995). While only 17 percent of converted into industrial land, or urban land, without the rice grown in Vietnam in 1980 was improved, flood prevention measures. Related problems include hybrid, or "modern" rice, by 2000 the total was more the loss of forests across the country, which then no than 90 percent. Triple cropping has raised the annual longer retain water, leading to greater volumes accumu- production of rice to well over 10 tons per hectare in lating in flood-prone areas. The infrastructure system is some areas, although this has come with large capital further complicated by multiple overlapping manage- costs and the doubling of labor input for many farmers ment responsibilities. Polder irrigation and drainage (Hossain et al. 1995). In fact, HYVs have pushed many systems are managed by provincial irrigation and drain- farmers into less diverse overall economic strategies, as age management companies, district irrigation enter- well as decreasing diversity of rice varieties, as HYV prises, and commune agricultural cooperatives. requires many more upfront capital and labor commit- Inter-provincial dyke systems are managed directly by ments than floating rice (Hoang Tuyet Minh 2000). the national Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, are built and planned by the Ministry of Yet these HYVs are not suited to the flooding season of Construction, and are funded by the Ministry of many areas of the Mekong Delta, and they are particu- Planning and Investment. Thus tackling the infrastruc- larly vulnerable to "exceptional event" flooding when ture situation requires not just funding of the infra- dykes are overrun and bunds breached. An early structure itself, but addressing the policy, economic, and monsoon or an extended monsoon can wipe out an social drivers that have contributed to poor and over- HYV crop completely. Should modern farmers be locked taxed infrastructure in the past. into agricultural schemes that do not allow for this last- minute flexibility (such as HYV that waterlog easily or s Ca l e : le v e r aG i nG n aTi o n a l a n d inflexible irrigation schedules), they will likely suffer s u b n aTi o n a l P o l iC i e s a n d badly from climate events in ways that they might have i n v e sTm e nTs f o r P r o - P o o r been able to survive just a generation ago (Kakonen a d aP TaT i o n 2008). In the Mekong Delta, "associated with the change from extensive, adaptive farming systems to more inten- While the National Target Program adopted by the sive cropping is a shift from a naturally regulated water government in 2008 was a first step, much more needs regime to a much more human regulated water to be done to leverage investment into the future. The regime....The locus of power is becoming more remote NTP lacked a scheme for prioritization of efforts, and from direct water users. For example, cropping calendars directed attention to potentially vulnerable sectors and and irrigation schedules are now prescribed by commune locales, yet not to vulnerable people/communities. The authorities, whereas previously farmers had some flexi- NTP also did not lay out specific actions. This is left to bility in determining when to crop" (Miller 2006). different ministries and provinces to flesh out. If there is not an explicit push for horizontal integration, the As another example of a sector that needs to be linked danger is that silo behavior will be pursued, information to climate change, natural phenomenon like typhoons will not be shared, and there is little basis for all the and rainstorms are compounded by man-made different plans to add up to a coherent national picture. 104 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m As the lead coordinating institution, MoNRE is better more salt-tolerant rice varieties), but also includes at undertaking forecasts and scenarios on exposure than explicit consideration of climate change risk in relation on orchestrating a coherent approach to mitigation, and to sectoral growth and development strategies. There especially adaptation. As noted above, several areas of are many tradeoffs involved, the greatest of which is government policy and/or economic development strat- likely weighing near-term growth prospects against egy have strong implications for climate change expo- future risk exposure. The participatory scenario work- sure and adaptive capacity, yet are rarely explicitly linked shops indicated clearly that different stakeholders will to these. Leveraging support for climate adaptation put different weights on these benefits and risks. requires rethinking certain approaches that may be increasing local/sectoral exposure to climate change The danger is that this is a more complicated pathway impacts; these would include policies that (a) re-zone than simply requesting more money for climate change agricultural land as industrial or urban land, yet do not "pet" projects. The costs of these projects is very large. make provision for investments in drainage; (b) have For example, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural encouraged massive planting of cash crops, such as Development (MARD) has estimated that for the next coffee or rubber on steep slopes and other marginal two years alone (2009­10) 2,500 billion VND are land; (c) have altered the varietal mix for crops away needed for system upgrades to infrastructure in the from traditional varieties toward higher yielding RRD basin alone, with local governments needing "improved" varieties; and (d) have expanded shrimp 2,651 billion VND for smaller canals and construction aquaculture at the expense of mangrove forests. They of pumping stations (VNA 2008). Estimates for irriga- also include the absence of policies/regulations regard- tion and water management in the Mekong Delta are ing groundwater management, leading to overpumping 21,100 billion VND in the 2010­20 period (Nguyen of water in both urban and rural areas; and policies that Huu Ninh 2007). Yet no estimates are available regard- have shifted institutional responsibilities and resulted in ing how much could be saved by focusing not on hard the decline in collective maintenance of dykes, irrigation measures, but on soft measures like better enforcement works, and other infrastructure. of land use planning and eliminating deforestation around watersheds. For at least some of the above, implicit choices have been made to favor current growth over future risk. In The other problem is that these sorts of large-scale, mainstreaming the policy dialogue on climate change, hard adaptation measures are also the least likely to be these choices would be made more explicit. Hence, pro-poor. It is often the poorest households who are there is a need to emphasize that increased exposure to displaced by hydropower development, or electrical climate change impacts is not simply due to (externally lines, or roads, and the poor are the least likely to be caused) environmental circumstances, of which Vietnam able to ask for compensation for their losses. Evidence is an unfortunate victim. It also has much to do with from industrial development in many areas of Vietnam, changing patterns of settlement, migration, economic including in the fieldsites notes, is that such policies-- development, and urbanization, and these trends will such as overexploitation of minerals in upland areas continue into the future. One could even go so far as to with no royalties paid to local communities, or indus- say that in some instances, Vietnam's development path trial parks built near rural villages, which then have to has put more assets, livelihoods, and economic activities bear the damage from polluted water --often do not "in the path" of encroaching climate change. Managing end up helping the poor. Thus careful consideration climate change will thus need a process that goes well needs to be paid to the proper balance of pro-poor beyond basic structural investments (i.e. sea dykes, irri- adaptation measures with the existing development gation canals) and adaptive technical measures (i.e. pathways that Vietnam is now pursuing. 105 7. ConClusions and · Vulnerability is difficult to identify with simple indicators like poverty; even rich households can be reCommendaTions significantly affected. Across the four regions, how- ever, the most vulnerable groups were consistently s ummary of f indinGs those who were poor; those who were ethnic minor- ities; those who had climate dependent income; Impacts: those with little capacity to react to climate events; and those who were already socially or medically · Climate impacts vary significantly from region to vulnerable (the elderly, children, women, the infirm region. Impacts include drought and flash floods in or disabled). the Northern Mountains and Central Highlands; storms, floods, and tornados in the Central Coastal Adaptation Options: areas and Red River Delta; and drought, floods, and sea level rise in the Mekong Delta. · Adaptation options taken to manage climate risk · The Mekong Delta Region has high exposure and have been very limited in all fieldsites. Households moderate sensitivity; Central Highlands, moderate surveyed have so far tended to rely on measures exposure and high sensitivity; Northern implemented at the household level and aimed Mountains, low exposure and high sensitivity; mainly toward on-farm actions to manage climate Central Coast, high exposure and moderate sensi- risk, such as listening to weather forecasts, building tivity; Red River Delta, moderate exposure and low stronger houses, evacuating out of unsafe areas, etc. sensitivity; Southeast Region, low exposure and · Longer term adaptation changes include some low sensitivity. changes in housing styles (concrete, two-story houses); diversification of farm incomes; changing Vulnerability: crops and varieties grown; and adjusting crop calen- dars for seasons grown. There have been very few · Vulnerability studies in Vietnam are lacking; there "hard adaptation" measures taken by individual are no clear indicators of vulnerability to climate households, such as to protect their farmland from change used consistently by the government. floods by building small impoundments or drainage Studies so far have been donor-driven and thus do systems. not cover the entire country consistently or in a · Some collective adaptive capacity was seen at field- comparative fashion. Regional vulnerability to cli- sites, but it was limited. Community collective mate change is very diverse, with different areas action measures include an informal coping system; experiencing different types of climate impact for example, community members can ask for help exposure and having different abilities to cope. from their friends and relatives, seek shelter in rela- 106 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m tives' houses, rely on relatives to help them clean up preparedness and adaptation action. However, lack afterwards, and provide loans. of sharing of information has long plagued · Longer term adaptation options are lacking, both at Vietnam, with research institutes often hoarding the household level but also in policy and responses data they produce and not providing it to others as a by government authorities. The local authorities means to capture power in a system of overlapping have been primarily focused on building response administration. New laws to encourage transpar- capacity: i.e. having yearly evacuation plans, train- ency and openness in public access to information ing people in disaster drills, providing weather data about government planning have been implemented to local authorities. only sporadically, and much information remains · There are limited adaptation responses at either the nearly impossible for an average citizen to find. household or the government level that either Better information provision and increased access of address the drivers of overall vulnerability or citizens to planning and policy institutions is likely directly confront climate change processes. These to reap benefits outside the climate change issue as are clearly areas that need more attention into the well. For example, groups provided with sufficient future. information can then begin putting adaptation strategies into place, and pursuing "no regrets" Policy: options. · At local levels, warning systems, weather forecast · Current policy approaches to adaptation are limited equipment, and modern communication systems are primarily to the National Target Program, which needed, especially the specialized knowledge of cli- faces serious challenges. These include lack of local mate forecasting over longer terms, skills in using research on vulnerabilities; lack of direction for pri- software programs for modeling climate, and docu- oritization of efforts or specific actions; a focus only ments and materials for training and awareness rais- on government actions, not local ones; significant ing. They also need a synthetic assessment for lack of horizontal integration as well as inter- provinces; for example, in specific scenarios given sectoral integration that replicates existing adminis- by MONRE, how the livelihoods of local people trative divides; a focus on primarily hard adaptation are affected, how crops are structured, how aqua- measures; and little to say on the role of local action culture and cattle raising is predicted to change, and social capital in building resilience. and how to solve those problems. · Incorporation of climate forecasts is needed imme- res P ondin G To dire CT and indi r eC T diately in economic and social planning. For exam- i mPa CT s of ClimaT e ChanGe ple, future settlement developments and land planning should concentrate on areas safe from Clearly much needs to be done in the realm of social flooding or sea level rise; yet the expansion of urban vulnerability in particular, and on identifying adaptive areas like Ho Chi Minh City still takes place in capacity in the hundreds of thousands of local commu- areas known to be vulnerable. Not taking action nities that will be affected by climate change. Clear now to limit development of areas known to be indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to especially vulnerable to climate impacts may mean climate change and climate variability have yet to that the government assumes enormous costs of become publicly recognized, and in general, policies on resettlement down the road. adaptation are not yet linked to sectoral policies already in place. s o Ci a l r i sK m a n aG e m e n T: a s s eT d e v e l oP m e nT a n d so C i a l P r oTe C Ti o n · Disaster preparedness is already in place in Vietnam, but there is a need to transition it to long- · Concern for overall livelihood resilience needed. term adaptation, rather than just short-term coping. Many groups indicated that robust livelihoods that · Information will clearly be needed to help individu- are diverse and supported by government and mar- als, communities, and institutions undertake ket policies provide the best buffer for vulnerable d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 107 households. This requires a rethinking of some of actions are best undertaken by what levels: the current agricultural policies that place more national, provincial, district, and community. emphasis on short-term economic gains than long- Practices that are only feasible at a higher govern- term risk (i.e., hybrid seeds that grow fast but can ment level include building codes and land use be more climate vulnerable). planning maps of vulnerable areas. These can be · Safety net programs not yet tied to climate built into information and communication systems change. Migrants lack access to many safety net so that communities and individuals can take them services if they lack residency permits. If climate into account while making personal choices about change induces more migration out of rural areas places to live. and into cities, this will create strains on social ser- · Mix of Hard and Soft Adaptation. Adaptation vices if safety net programs are not revisited and options need to be understood as a suite of possibili- made more flexible. Other examples include the ties to be undertaken by a host of people and fact that specialized credit is not usually given to groups. Distinguishing between hard vs. soft adap- victims of climate disasters unless the households tation options will be necessary, as governments like have already been certified as poor. This can limit those of Vietnam often will tend to focus attention access to needed funding to cope with climate on the hard adaptation options: those that are more change. expensive and more likely to attract donor funding. · Decentralize adaptation to climate change. The These hard options are also less flexible in the long centralized nature of much administration and ser- term should forecasts prove variable as to climate vice provision in local areas means that individuals, impacts. That is why soft adaptation options, which households, and communities have less flexibility to are often less expensive and more flexible, should be adapt to the changing circumstances of climate on the table as well. As of yet, however, there is no change The primary mode of governance is by com- strong advocacy lobby to put these soft options on mand and control from the center, rather than a the table. decentralized or performance-based approach that would encourage initiative and competition among P o l iC y d e s iG n a n d i mP l e m e nTaTi o n communities. The absence of formal methods to address early climate adaptation in policy and plan- · Government will play a large role. Nearly all ning means that later and often unnecessary costs groups in PSD workshops indicated that appropri- may be imposed on both individuals and the gov- ate policies and investment need to come from the ernment by failure to act in a preemptive fashion. central government for many preferred adaptation · No regrets options can be implemented now. pathways. This is a function both of Vietnam's his- Climate proofing of policies and investments can tory of strong government intervention, especially often be "no-regret" actions: that is, they are cost- in pro-poor development, and recognition of the effective and provide benefits above and beyond large scale of the options that will need to be con- their usefulness in adaptation to climate change. An sidered. Mangrove planting, for example, can be example would be expanded use of urban trees to carried out by NGOs and private citizens, but in cool buildings, reducing both the urban heat island order to scale up and make a real difference, coop- effect and also reducing energy costs of urban eration and coordination with government offices households. These sorts of no-regrets action would would be needed to ensure coastal areas across dif- be worth pursing even in the absence of CC fore- ferent provinces were all working to improve coastal casts. Some of the preferred adaptation pathways in defenses. Similarly, work on improving sea dykes or the PSD workshops, for example, are things that sea walls would fall primarily to the central govern- would be a livelihood improvement even in the ment, as they are the only institution that can coor- absence of climate change, such as the need for dinate effectively among many provincial affordable housing that meets green standards. stakeholders. · Strategies for adaptation plans. Strategies for · Ministerial guidance missing. Institutionally, adaptation plans should clarify what adaptation Vietnam is not equipped with a strong lead ministry 108 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m to guide climate adaptation. The CCFSCS, while thinking about climate in all planning should be boasting much experience in inter-ministerial coor- conveyed downward from the prime minister and dination and local action, is set up to respond to all ministries should take part, not just those that disasters when/if they happen, not to coordinate have been traditionally associated with environmen- ministry actions to reduce vulnerabilities over the tal issues (MARD, MONRE, MOST). long term. While the government structure to · Linkages between adaptation policy and existing respond to climate disasters is clear and well- sectoral policies need to be made explicit, and coordinated, it lacks flexibility to take on the new require close cooperation among competing minis- challenges posed by climate change. All plans for tries. More studies need to be undertaken to explore the CCFSC and lower level committees are made the impact of sector policies, like the promotion of for a short-term of one year; therefore they are more single crop farming, rather than diversification, on suited to short-term disaster coping than long-term the vulnerability of different types of communities management. Risk assessments are ad-hoc, done on to climate change. New policies should be measured the basis of previous years experience and on short- up against such climate vulnerabilities to ensure term weather predictions, and there is currently no they do not exacerbate existing problems. system and no capacity for long-term climate risk · Investment needed from many sources. Many of management. the preferred adaptation pathways--such as sea · Overlapping mandates. The problem of an absence dykes or technology transfer for new rice varieties-- of a lead ministry is compounded by a general lack need large investments in the short term. There will of horizontal integration, leading to overlap and clearly be a strong need for donor support in some competition among agencies, such as between of these areas, in particular the areas of crop tech- MARD and MONRE. The current NTP divides nology and development for which Vietnam is often adaptation activities and does not combine them in dependent on research done in other countries. a holistic integrated manner and will simply repli- Donor support for integrated coastal planning and cate existing administrative divides. other large-scale approaches has been tested in the · Climate change adaptation needs to be main- past and there are good models of cooperation to streamed into all local development planning. move forward. If the private sector--such as the Yearly, five-, ten-, and twenty-year socioeconomic insurance sector--is to take an active role in climate plans are already done on a systematic basis by all change adaptation options, they may need to be local government units. Shaping this planning to explicitly pushed to take such a role, as there is little incorporate climate impacts, vulnerability assess- spontaneous involvement from the private sector to ments, and adaptation options needs to start hap- date. pening now, not in five or ten years. The urgency of 109 8. biblioGraPhy compares these reports in terms of their methodologies and their indicators of vulnerability. As can be seen, many of these reports have been primarily qualitative f urT her resourC es reviews relying on others' data, and only a few have attempted a more quantitative look at vulnerability or a A number of recent climate reports on Vietnam have nationwide approach. been produced in recent years. The graph below ComParison of reCenT rePorTs on ClimaTe ChanGe in vieTnam on meThodoloGy and indiCaTors of vulnerabiliTy Identification of most vulnerable geographic zones What data collected/ Study Title Authors/Date Indicators of vulnerability used or communities used? Climate Change Adaptation East meets geographical location of communities not specified 125 hh surveys in Survey, Quang Nam West, 2009 (coasts, deltas, or mountains) Quang nam Province Climate Change and Human chaudry and Rural poor not specified literature review, Development in Viet Nam Ruysschaert, monRE reports 2007 Climate Change Impacts in ncAp 2006 geographical location not specified modeling of future Huong River Basin and impacts in gis maps Adaptation in its Coastal of district based on District Phu Vang, Thua physical data Thien Hue province Climate Resilient Cities prasad et al. · moderate to high level of one or only hanoi national datasets A Primer on Reducing 2008 more natural hazards mentioned for Vulnerabilities to Disasters · medium or high observed Vietnam vulnerability in past disasters · moderate to high sectoral vulnerability of climate change · medium or high slum density or large proportion of informal population; no comprehensive disaster response system · Economic and/or political significance in regional or national context Continued on next page 110 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m ComParison of reCenT rePorTs on ClimaTe ChanGe in vieTnam on meThodoloGy and indiCaTors of vulnerabiliTy (continued) Identification of most vulnerable geographic zones What data collected/ Study Title Authors/Date Indicators of vulnerability used or communities used? Drought-Management Kyoto University self-identified vulnerability of Women/children Qualitative interviews Considerations for Climate- and oxfam communities (i.e. direct question, are in ninh thuan Change Adaptation: Focus 2007 you more vulnerable than in past) on the Mekong Region EACH-FOR Environmental dun 2009 not specified, mostly those vulnerable mekong delta 45 expert interviews Change and Forced to geographic displacement in hcm, phnom Migration Scenarios: Viet penh, and An giang Nam Case Study Report Flood risk management in phong tran et the poor not specified 400 hh surveys in Central Viet Nam: al. 2008 thua thien hue challenges and potentials province HCM City Adaptation to AdB and icEm · geographic location not specified gis mapping, Climate Change Study 2009 · poverty provincial statistics Mega-Stress for Mega- WWf 2009 · susceptibility of the city impacted by ho chi minh city national datasets Cities: A Climate 1 m sealevel rise and 2 m storm is medium Vulnerability Ranking of surge; historical frequency of vulnerability city in Major Coastal Cities in Asia extreme weather events Asia (behind · population dhaka, ahead of · gross domestic product Bangkok and · the relative importance of city to the singapore) national economy · overall willingness of the city to implement adaptation strategies · per capita gdp Rapid Assessment of the carew-Reid, geographic location (less than 1m) mekong delta and digital surface model Extent and Impact of Sea 2009 ho chi minh city satellite imagery Level Rise in Viet Nam primarily spatial overlay and analysis of the slR inundation zones with national gis layers on socioeconomic and environmental variables Social Vulnerability to Adger 1999; · poverty not specified- nam dinh province Climate Change and Adger 2000 · dependency on natural resources coastal areas in 60 hh survey, Extremes in Coastal · income inequality general qualitative interviews Vietnam; Institutional · institutional competition adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam The Role Of Local AdRc 2008 the poor, but not specified not specified Qualitative fieldwork Institutions In Reducing in Quang tri and Vulnerability To Natural thua thien hue Disasters, And Long-Term Sustainable Livelihood Development In High Risk Areas: Vietnam case study Towards an integrated phong tran and · Unsustainable practices (slash burn, geographic areas hh surveys in thua approach of disaster and shaw 2007 sand dredging) where thien hue environment management: · downstream from dams unsustainable A case study of Thua Thien · hh with poor waste management land use is taking Hue province, central Viet place Nam Vietnam Coastal nguyen huu · geographical locations not specified gps data on Vulnerability Assessment huan 2000 exposure and geographical position Continued on next page d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 111 ComParison of reCenT rePorTs on ClimaTe ChanGe in vieTnam on meThodoloGy and indiCaTors of vulnerabiliTy (continued) Identification of most vulnerable geographic zones What data collected/ Study Title Authors/Date Indicators of vulnerability used or communities used? 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Washington, DC: World Bank. 122 aPPendiCes aPP endix 1. maP s of f ield s iT es maP of ha GianG ProvinCe, shoWinG siTes of field researCh d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 123 maP of Kon Tum ProvinCe, shoWinG siTes of field researCh maP of quanG nam ProvinCe, shoWinG siTes of field researCh 124 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m maP of meKonG delTa ProvinCe, shoWinG siTes of field researCh. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 125 aPP endix 2. no. of households i nTe rv i eWe d Wi Th su rv e y Number people interviewed Type of Household Structure Age Gender of Respondents Total Average number of Male-headed Female- Other Age of Male Female Commune # of HHS hh members hhs headed hhs arrangements Respondent Respondents Respondents Kon-tum 20 99 18 2 0 49.75 14 6 dien Binh Kon-tum 21 115 19 2 0 42.86 10 11 dak tram ha giang, 15 87 12 3 0 38.00 10 15 Quang Ba ha giang, 16 74 15 1 0 43.00 12 16 Quang Binh Quang nam, 21 100 8 13 0 59.29 8 21 hoi An Quang nam, 0 95 8 12 0 41.85 8 0 cu lao cham Bac lieu ­ 20 103 20 0 0 44.7 13 7 long dien village Bac lieu ­ long 20 111 20 0 0 50.00 17 3 dien tay village can tho, ninh 20 128 9 11 0 52.00 3 17 Kieu district aPP endix 3. no. of f oCus GrouP di s Cu s s i o n s h e l d Number people interviewed # of Focus group Commune meetings # total participants % women Kon-tum dien Binh 2 49 33% Kon-tum dak tram 2 32 31% ha giang, Quang Ba ha giang province: 2 ha giang province: 10 ha giang province: 10% Quan Ba: 2 Quan Ba: 38 Quan Ba: 22% ha giang, Quang Binh 2 29 35% Quang nam, hoi An 3 24 40% Quang nam, cu lao cham 4 26 38.5% Bac lieu ­ long dien village 1 18 0% Bac lieu ­ long dien tay village 2 31 16% can tho, ninh Kieu district 2 24 75% 126 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m aPP endix 4. household ques Tio n n a i r e bNg HI H gIa ̀NH Kinh t ca thích nghi vi Bin i khí hu: nhóm xă hôi Vit nam mă hô: Ngi phng vn: Ngày phng vn: PHN I: CH S KH NNg THÍCH NgHI 1.1 Tên ngi c phng vn: 1.2 a ch: lang: xă: huyn: 1.3 gii: 1. Nam 2. N 1.4 tui: (nói rơ)................nm 1.5 Ông ba hc ht lp my? lp...... h (nói rơ 10/10 hay 10/12)............. 1.6 Ông/ba có phi la ch hô gia ́nh? 1. có 2. Không, có mi quan h vi ch nha...... 1. V/chng 2. con gái/trai/cháu 3. B/m 4. Khác (nói rơ)........................ 1.7 gia ́nh Ông/ba sng ây bao lâu? (không k ông ba t tiên) ....... nm 1.8 s thanh viên gia ́nh S ngi mù S ngi hc S ngi hc STT Mô t S ngi ch ht cp I ht cp III 1 s thanh viên ca hô gia ́nh 2 s ngi trong ô tui lao ông 3 s tr em di 15 tui 4 s thanh viên trên 60 tui 5. s ngi i lam xa (di c) d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 127 Ch s c s h tng 1.9 Ai ng tên ch s hu nha hin nay ông ba ang ..........? 1.10 Kiu nha ca Ông/ba la ǵ? 1.10.1 Mc kiên c Kiu nhà Tích vào các ô sau 1. Kiên c (ví d: tt c tng u lam bng gch hoc g cng), nha mái bng, v.v... o 2. Bán kiên c (ví d: môt phn ca tng lam bng gch va nhng phn khác lam g/tre) o 3. nha san o 3. nha cp 4 o 4. Khác, nói rơ o 1.10.2 S tng: ............ Nn nhà cao:...........m 1.11 Gia ́nh Ông/bà có in không? o có o Không Ch s kinh t 1.12 thông tin v t va tai sn ca hô S hu 1= s hu, Din tích t (m2) 2= Thu hoc loi t/tài sn 3= khác S n v tài sn t 1 t , bao gm vn nha 2 t trng/trang tri - trong ó + có h thng ti tiêu + Không có h thng ti tiêu 3 t rng 4 nuôi trng thu sn 5 Khác (nêu rơ:......... .................... ................ tai sn 6 xe có ông c/ô tô 7 xe máy 8 thuyn 9 Khác (nêu rơ:......... .................... 128 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m 1.13 ngun thu nhp ca hô gia ́nh trong nm 2008, 2009 nh th nao? Thu nhp nm 2008 Thu nhp nm 2009 STT NguN (VND) (VND) lư do thay i (gii thích) 1 trng trt 2 chn nuôi ga Vt trâu ḅ ln cá nc ngt 3 nuôi trng thu sn (ngao, tôm) 5 Kinh doanh ca gia ́nh (phi nông nghip) 6 lam thuê 7 lng hu/các loi lng khác 8 tin thanh viên gia ́nh hoc h hang lam xa gi v 9 Khác (nêu rơ)........................... 1.14 nm 2010 hô gia ́nh ông/ba d nh trng cây/ con ǵ va không trng/nuôi cây con ǵ? ti sao? ...................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................ ........................................................................................................................ ........................................................................................................................ 1.15 gia ́nh có thiu go n trong 1 nm không? 1. Không 2. có, thiu ...............tháng/ngay nu có, lư do ti sao li thiu: ........................................................................................... ................................................................................................................................... .................................................................................................................................... 1.16 a. i vi hô ph thuôc ch yu vao nông nghip, c lng s các loi cây trng khác nhau nm ngoái (ví d: lúa, lc, u, vng, ngô, rau, ca phê...): tng s các loi cây trng: lit kê các loi cây trng: ................................................................................................................................ ................................................................................................................................ d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 129 1.16b. hô gia ́nh ông/ba có thay i các loi cây trng trong ṿng 5 nm tr li gn ây không? nu có th́ loi cây nao? ................................................................................................................................. nu có, ti sao li thay i? (ánh du nu phu hp) 1. giá tt hn 2. dch v khuyn nông khuyn khích các loi cây trng mi 3. thích ng tt hn i vi bin i khí hu 4. nng sut cao hn 5 có vn vi cây trng c nên thay i 6. Khác (nói rơ) ...................................................................................................................... 1.16c. hô gia ́nh ông/ba có trng thêm cây công nghip ( tiêu, ca phê, cao su, mía... - cây trng ma không n c) trong 5 nm qua? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc 1.16d. hang nm gia ́nh ông/ba có gi li ht ging? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc nu có, loi: lúa ngô rau khác (nêu rơ: .......................................... 1.16e. hô gia ́nh ông/ba có nhn c s tr giúp t dch v khuyn nông, khuyn lâm trong ṿng 2 nm qua không? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc nu có, tr giúp gi? 1. tp hun k thut 2. cung cp ht ging 3. cung cp phân bón hoc thuc tr sâu 4. cung cp con ging 5. cung cp dch v thú y 6. Khác ................................................ 1.16f. % t ca hô gia ́nh c ti tiêu thng xuyên? _______ % 1.16g. Ai la ngi có trách nhim duy tŕ h thng ti tiêu dn nc vao ruông ông/ba? gia ́nh ông/ba thôn chính quyn xă hp tác xă Khác. 1.16h. cây trng ca hô gia ́nh ông/ba có b dch bnh phá hoi trong 2 nm qua không? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc nu có, loi dch bnh nao? _________________________ tn hi do dch bnh gây ra la bao nhiêu? ____________ Vnd Ông/ba lam th nao gii quyt vn ? __________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________ Ch s k thut 1.17 a. sc kho: có ai trong gia ́nh b m au thng xuyên không? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc 1.17b. có ai trong gia ́nh b m tháng trc va do ó phi ngh lam hoc ngh hc không? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc 1.17c. Ông/ba có nc sch ung không? 1. có, luôn luôn 2. thnh thong 3. him khi 4. Không 5. Không chc 130 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m 1.17d. Ông ba ly nc sinh hot t âu? 1. nc máy 2. nc ging khoan 3. t sông/h 4. community well 5. mua 6. Khác (nêu rơ) 1.17e. gia ́nh có nha v sinh không? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc 1.17f. hô gia ́nh ông/ba có nhn c s h tr nao v dch v xă hôi trong 2 nm qua không? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc nu có, loi dch v? 1. th bo him 2. tr cp (du, mui, v.v.v) 3. gim hc phí 4.h tr nha 5. h tr t ai 6. ao to ngh 7.Khác (nêu rơ_________) 1.18 nha Ông/ba cách UBnd xă/trung tâm xă bao xa? ....... Km trong trng hp xy ra thiên tai nghiêm trng, gia ́nh ông/ba ă/s s tán n ni an toan hn không? 1. Không. 2. có nu có, Ông/ba có th i n ni tránh thiên tai nao? 1. toa nha chính ph (nha UBnd, trng hc, trm xá, trung tâm cu hô an toan...) 2. chua, nha th, n,.. 3. nha hang xóm 4. Khác 1.19 gia ́nh Ông/ba nhn c thông tin/tin v thiên tai bng phng tin ǵ? (có th tích vao nhiu hn môt ô) 1. t.V 2. ai 3. internet 4. Báo 5. thông tin t hang xóm 6. thông tin t cán bô a phng 7. Khác (nói rơ)................................... Ch s vn xă hi 1.20 trong nm qua hô ông/ba có vay tin t bn bè hoc hang xóm không? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc nu có, bao nhiêu? ______________ vay ca ai: ______________ 1.21 trong nm qua ông/ba có cho bn bè hoc hang xóm vay tin không? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc nu có, bao nhiêu? ______________ cho ai vay: ______________ trong nm qua ông/ba có vay tin t ngân hang không? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc nu có, bao nhiêu? ______________ ngân hang: ______________ 1.22 a. Ông/ba có khon danh s dng cho tái phc hi sau thiên tai không? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 131 1.22b. gia ́nh Ông/ba ă bao gi phi nh n s giúp t bên ngoai khi gp phi nhng vn v thiên tai/ l lt / ...xy ra không?. Va ai la ngi ma Ông/ba t́m n c tr giúp? 1. Không, tôi không th t́m c ai giúp tôi 2. có, (nói rơ ngun va chi tit c giúp nh th nao)........................ 1. h hang giúp khi .......................................... 2. bn bè giúp khi ........................................... 3. c quan nha nc (nói rơ) giúp khi ................................ 4. Khác (nói rơ)........................................................................ 1.23 s ln hp thôn/ 1 nm ti ây? 1. tun môt ln 2. tháng môt ln 3. 3 tháng môt ln 4. môt hoc hai ln trong môt nm 5. Không bao gi 6. tôi không bit 1.24 hang xóm ca Ông/ba có hay trao i kinh nghim/ư tng vi nhau v thiên tai va bin i khí hu không? 1. Không 3. thnh thong 2. him khi 4. thng xuyên 1.25 Ông/ba có la thanh viên ca t chc công ng nao không? có/không 1. Không 2. nông dân 3. ph n 4. thanh niên 5. cu chin binh 4. Khác (nóii rơ) ..................... 1.26 nu có, Ông/ba có la thanh viên tích cc không? 1. Không, 2. có 1.26a Ông/ba có la thanh viên ca t chc nh nhóm s dng nc, hôi nông dân hay nhóm tín dng/ hi ph n ...v.v.v? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc nu có, t chc nao ? ______________ bao lâu li hp môt ln? ___________ PHN II: S KIN bĂo/lT NgHIÊM TRNg VÀ TÁC Ng Ca NÓ 2.0 Ông/ba có thy khí hu thay i ây không, so vi 10 nm trc? 1. có 2. Không 3. Không chc nu có, thay i nh th nao? (có th ánh du nhiu) băo thng xuyên ít băo hn nhiu băo to hn ít băo to ma to hn ma nh hn ma lâu hn ma ngn hn nhiu l lt hn ít l lt hn khô hn m t hn mua khô kéo dai hn mua ma dai hn tng t0 tB gim t0 tB 132 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m 2.1 trong 5 nm tr li gn ây hô bao nhiêu ln gia ́nh ông/ba phi tri qua hin tng khí hu cc oan nh băo hoc l hoc hn hán? ______ ln 2.2 nu có th́ la hin tng ǵ? 1. l 2. hn hán 3. Băo 4 ma ln 5. lc 6. st l t 7.l quyét 8. thi tit lnh 9. Khác (nói rơ)__________ 2.3 nha ông/ba có b ngp trong ṿng 5 nm qua không? 1. có 2. Không 2.4 nu có, trong khi b ngp mc nc lên cao nh th nao? 1. n sân cao...... m 2. Vao tn trong nha sâu ...... m 2.4a Ông/ba có nhn c nhng cnh báo trc khi hin tng khí hu nói trên xy ra không? 1. Không 2. có, thông qua phng tin truyn thông nao? 1. h hang/ bn bè 2. hang xóm 3. chính ph 4. chính quyn a phng 5. t chc phi chính ph 6. phng tin thông tin i chúng (ai/ ti vi/ báo) 7. Khác (nêu rơ)................................. a) Ông/ba có hiu c thông ip ó không? 1. có 2. Không b) K t thi im ông/ba nhn c li cnh báo th́ bao lâu sau thien tai xy ra (hăy cho con s thi gian c th) .......gi/ ngay c) sau khi nhn c li cnh báo, ông/ ba mt bao thi gian lam các hot ông bo v tai sn va gia ́nh ḿnh an toan không b nh hng? ...... gi 2.5 trong 5 nm qua nhng hin tng khí hu va nêu trên có gây thit hi cho gia ́nh ông/ba không? 1. thit hi/mt nghiêm trng 2. thit hi/mt không áng k 3. Không thit hi/mt (chuyn sang câu hi 2.7) d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 133 2.6 nhng mt mát/thit hi ca gia ́nh Ông/ba do s kin ó gây ra la ǵ? Thit hi TT loi quy thành tin (VND) 1 Thit hi/mt i vi tài sn ca h (ch tính thit hi/mt do s kin gây ra) nha gia dng xe có ông c/thuyn tin nghi gia ́nh (ngun nc, in, thông tin) Khác, nói rơ 2 Thit hi/mt i vi sn xut ca h (cây trng/nông nghip/vt nuôi/nuoi trong thuy san/ca/hot ng kinh doanh) cây trng/ nông nghip chn nuôi va gia cm trang tri nuôi trng thu sn nuôi cá Kinh doanh hô gia ́nh Khác, nói rơ 3 Thu nhp b mt mt thu nhp/lng mt kinh doanh Khác, nói rơ 4 Mt ngi/an toàn cht hoc tht lc (noir o so nguoi) B thng (chi phi dieu tri/thuoc va thu nhap bi mat) Bnh tt/m au (chi phí iu tr/thuc va thu nhp b mt) Khác, nói rơ........... 5 Khác, (nói rơ............... ví d mâu thun trong vic gii quyt vn trong cng ng, di c) 2.7 Bao nhiêu ngay/tun/tháng/nm sau khi cn băo xy ra Ông/ba cho rng gia ́nh ḿnh có th phc hi c? (nêu rơ n v thi gian) ngay/tun/tháng/nm................................................ ...... ................................................................................................................................... 134 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m 2.8 so vi các hô khác trong thôn, ông/ba có cho rng gia ́nh ḿnh d b tn thng hn i vi khí hu, b hn hoc cng ging nh các hô khác? d b tn thng hn i vi các hin tng khí hu Ít b tn thng hn i vi các hin tng khí hu ging nh các hô khác trong thôn PHN III: HÀNH VI THÍCH Ng VI S KIN bIN I KHÍ Hu C TH 3.1 i vi các hin tng khí hu (nêu trên) ma gia ́nh ông/ba va phi tri qua trong 5 nm tr li gn ây, ông/ba ă ng phó nh th nao i vi các hin tng nay? cho môt vai ví d va c lng chi phí. Thích nghi ngn hn (ít hn Hin tng khí hu 1 nm) Thích nghi trung hn (1- 5 nm) Thích nghi dài hn (hn 5 nm) ngp 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd hn hán 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd Băo 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd ma ln 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd lc 1. hot ông: 11. hot ông: 1. hot ông: __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd st l t 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd l quưet 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd thi tit lnh 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 135 Thích nghi ngn hn (ít hn Hin tng khí hu 1 nm) Thích nghi trung hn (1- 5 nm) Thích nghi dài hn (hn 5 nm) Khác (nêu rơ)_ 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: 1. hot ông: __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ __________________ 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 2. chi phí ______ Vnd 3.2 trc, trong va sau khi hin tng khí hu nêu trên xy ra, thôn/ xóm ca ông ba có cung nhau lam các hot ông chung nao không? nu có, hăy lit kê. Bn than gia ́nh ông ba có tham gia vao nhng hot ông nao trong nhng hot ông ó không, ti sao. Ai trong hô nha ông ba tham gia? ........................................................................................................................... .................................................................................................................................... .................................................................................................................................... 3.3 hô gia ́nh ông/ba ă nhn c nhng h tr/ giúp ǵ, t ai/ t chc nao i phó vi cli- mate events va qua (trc, trong hay sau khi climate events ó xy ra) ................................. .................................................................................................................................... .................................................................................................................................... 3.4 hô gia ́nh ca ông/ba cn h tr nhng ǵ khc phc nhng hu qu do cn băo gây nên trong t va qua va trong tng lai? ................................................................................. .................................................................................................................................... ................................................................................................................................... 3.5 Ông/ba có cho rng nhng s kin băo, l lt ln la thiên nh va con ngi ít kh nng kim soát c? 1. Rt ng ư 2. ng ư 3. Không ng ư 4. phn i 3.6 theo Ông/ba, trong tng lai, nhng cn thiên tai xy ra ti a phng s nh th nao? 1. trm trng hn nhng s kin ă tri qua 2. gn ging nh nhng s kin ă tri qua 3. không chc nu trm trng hn, ti sao? ............................................................................................ .................................................................................................................................... PHN IV: K hoch tng lai/thích nghi 4.1 trong 20 nm ti ông/ba mun con ḿnh lam ǵ? 1. ging nh b m 3. t́m vic lam mi a phng (nêu rơ _______) 2. chuyn n vung mi 4. Khác _____________________________ 4.2 nu trong ṿng 40 nm na sn lng [a ra nhng ví d khác v thay i trong nông nghip cho mi vung, không ch nói v Kon tum) ca fê Kon tum nói riêng va tây nguyên nói chung s gim 40% do bin i khí hu th́ ba con trong thôn s chuyn i sang trng cây ǵ va nuôi con ǵ? V́ sao? 136 t hE sociA l d imEnsions of Ad A ptAtion to c limAtE c h A ngE in ViE t nA m .......................................................................................................................................... .......................................................................................................................................... ............................................................................................................................................ .......................................................................................................................................... 4.3 nu trong ṿng 40 nm na lng ma vung nay s tng va ngp lt s xy ra thng xuyên hn th́ gia ́nh ḿnh s lam ǵ? a ra nhng la chn c th: ______________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________ 4.4 nu trong ṿng 40 nm na hn hán vung nay s nghiêm trng hn th́ gia ́nh ḿnh s lam ǵ? a ra nhng la chn c th: : _____________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________ 4.5 nu trong ṿng 40 nm na mc nc bin s tng hoc nhim mn s tr nên trm trng hn th́ gia ́nh ḿnh s lam ǵ? a ra nhng la chn c th: : _____________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________ d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 137 aPP endix 5. sam Ple P sd WorKs h oP a G e n d a Workshop Program for Second National Workshop, March 31, 2010 8:00­8:30 Registration 8:30­8:40 Welcome and introductions ­ Welcome remarks by director of cREs ­ Welcome remarks by Vice president of Vietnam national University ­ Welcome remarks by representative of World Bank 8:40­8:50 Brief introduction to the EAcc study by social team 8:50­9:10 overview of climate change scenarios for Vietnam (ministry of natural Resources and Environment) 9:10­9:20 overview of the current and potential future socioeconomic trends (ministry of planning and investment) 9:20­9:40 climate change Adaptation policy Review in Vietnam (pam mcElwee) 9:40­10:00 climate change Adaptation in Vietnam: preliminary research findings (cREs) 10:00­10:30 plenary discussion 10:30­11:00 coffee/tea break 11:00­11:45 group discussion: impacts of climate change and vulnerability 11:45­13:30 lunch 13:30­14:15 group discussion: prioritizing adaptation options 14:15­14:30 coffee/teak break 14:30­16:30 group discussion: Adaptation pathway review 16:30­17:15 plenary discussion and reflecting on the day The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 USA Tel: 202-473-1000 Fax: 202-477-6391 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange