2018/89 Supported by K NKONW A A WELDEGDEG E OL N ONTOET E S ESREI R E ISE S F OFRO R P R&A C T HTEH E NEENREGRYG Y ETX ITCREA C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E THE BOTTOM LINE Kenya’s Strategy to Make Liquefied Petroleum Gas Adoption of liquefied petroleum gas as a clean cooking solution the Nation’s Primary Cooking Fuel is lagging behind Kenya’s 2030 development goal, despite several government initiatives taken Will Kenya meet the 35 percent target it has set developed to reduce the cost of LPG and thereby expand its use among lower-income Kenyans. along the LPG value chain. The for adoption of LPG as a cooking fuel by 2030? government’s strategy has so far The government converted the 35 percent goal into a bench- focused on reducing the cost of A low level of use and high end-user price marked per capita consumption target of 15 kilograms of LPG per LPG and increasing its use among currently cloud the outlook year by 2030—a sharp expansion from a baseline of just 2 kilograms lower-income Kenyans. Sustainable in 2013 (table 1). Africa’s average LPG consumption is 3 kilograms per Universal access to modern energy services by 2030 is one of uptake might be accelerated by capita per year. South Africa, whose economy is roughly the size of the three goals of the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) initiative taking vigorous regulatory steps Kenya’s, consumes much more: about 6 kilos per capita per year launched by the United Nations in 2011. After Kenya joined SE4All to reduce the consumer price (as of 2015). As a result of effective government intervention, Senegal in 2012, a stocktaking revealed that Kenyans relied predominantly and minimize unlicensed LPG and Ghana, whose economies are smaller than Kenya’s, consume on traditional sources of cooking energy. About 84 percent of the sales, reviewing the economics between 5 and 10 kilos per capita per year. population cooked with solid fuels (wood, charcoal, or agricultural underpinning the intervention Even in Kenya’s top income quintile, only 10 percent of consum- residue), and 5 percent used kerosene. Cooking with these fuels scheme, creating an enabling ers use LPG, compared with 45–85 percent in comparable African affects the health of millions of Kenyans while causing environmental environment for LPG adoption by countries. In the other quintiles less than 2 percent use it. Most and social damage. An estimated 15,000 Kenyans die each year upper- and middle-income groups, Kenyans living in rural areas—which means most Kenyans—do not from air pollution, and at least 40 percent of childhood deaths are developing annual uptake targets, pay for their cooking fuel, as they tend to gather their own firewood. caused by respiratory illness.1 Meanwhile, wood resources are being and devising a better metric for The largest potential market segment is formed by upper- and depleted faster than they can be replenished. (Between 1990 and measuring progress toward those middle-income households living in urban areas.2 2005, Kenya lost 5 percent of its forest cover.) Wood fuel production, targets. LPG is expensive in Kenya relative to the cost of competing fuels household cook stoves, and heating technologies are generally (table 2). No recent analysis has been done to persuade Kenyans of inefficient and wasteful. the energy cost efficiency of LPG. But in 2013 the cost of one year To deal with the problem, Kenya’s government set a long-term of cooking with LPG (approximately $350) was much higher than the goal of having 42 percent of households adopt clean cooking cost of cooking with kerosene ($200) or coal ($150). In 2017, kerosene Inge C. van den Berg is fuels. The goal was embedded in Kenya’s Vision 2030 Second (inclusive of value-added tax, VAT) was still cheaper than LPG (which a senior oil and gas Medium-Term Plan (2013–17) in alignment with the SE4All country specialist at the Kenya is now exempt from VAT). action agenda. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was to contribute 35 Petroleum Technical percent, biofuels 5 percent, and electricity 2 percent. A strategy was Assistance Project within 2 According to Dalberg–GLPGP (2013), lower-income households have an income of less than the World Bank Group’s Energy and K Sh 10,000/month; middle-income households, between K Sh 10,000 and 40,000; upper-income Extractives Global Practice. 1 According to the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study, the figure was 16,600. households, more than K Sh 40,000/month. US$1 ≅ K Sh 100. 2 K e n y a ’ s S t r at e g y t o M ak e L i q u e f i e d P e t r o l e u m G as t h e Nat i o n ’ s P r i ma r y C o o k i n g F u e l Table 1. Actual and projected LPG consumption, 2013–30 Actual Target 2013 2015 2016 2017 2017 2022 2026 2027 2030 Kilograms per capita 2 ~2.1 ~2.8 — — — — — 15 Thousands of metric tons 60 149 174 64 (est.) — — ~1,100 — — LPG is expensive in (including industry) Kenya relative to the Percentage of households 9 — — — 14 19 — 26 35 cost of competing fuels. Percentage of population 5 — <7 — — — — — — No recent analysis has Source: SE4All Kenya Action Agenda, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, World Bank/WHO, PDC, Dalberg–GLPGP. been done to persuade — = data not available. (The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics has not released 2018 consumption data.) Kenyans of the energy cost Table 2. 2017 retail prices of various cooking fuels Several factors contribute to the high consumer price. Apart efficiency of LPG. In 2017, from fluctuations in the international import price, the landed supply Monthly average kerosene (even with VAT) cost is persistently high owing to the absence of an open tender Fuel Price was still cheaper than LPG system for bulk storage of LPG, and the margins retained by dealers, Firewood Free (if collected) distributors, and retailers are unusually high (table 3). To this must be (now exempt from VAT). Charcoal ~ K Sh 81 for a 4 kg tin (K Sh 20/kg) added the substantial costs consumers pay for their cylinders, the Kerosene ~ K Sh 67/liter stove, and accessories needed to use the gas. LPG ~ K Sh 160/kg (K Sh 82/liter ) The top five of Kenya’s 44 licensed LPG dealers account for about Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. 80 percent of the market. Cylinders are available in 1, 3, 6, 13 kilo- gram sizes. Seventy percent of current demand is for the 6 kilogram size; 20 percent for the 13 kilogram size. Small, inexpensive burners Table 3. Cost breakdown of LPG price, 2013 fit on 6 kilogram cylinders, but the 13 kilogram size requires a more Share of total price expensive stove. Because the larger cylinders are heavy and refilling Cost item US$/ton (%) points are few, consumers also face the expense of transportation to Landed supply cost 1,466 61.9 have their cylinders refilled. Global reference price 808 34.1 Most retailers raised their prices by 15 percent in early 2017, Shipping cost 380 16.1 following a global surge in gas prices (figure 1). Retail prices in Storage 278 11.7 the first quarter of 2018 remained where they stood at the end of Bulk transport 82 3.5 2017. The 2017 monthly average retail price was about $1.6/kg. A Filling 70 3.0 6 kilogram cylinder costs about $26. No recent breakdown of the components of the retail gas price has been performed, but a 2013 Margins 750 31.7 breakdown concluded that margins accounted for nearly 32 percent Dealer 350 14.8 and landed supply costs for a disproportionally high 62 percent Distributor 205 8.7 (table 3). A current cost breakdown would likely show similar results, Retailer 195 8.2 though with a lower global reference price than in 2013. 2,368 100.1 The consumer price of LPG has been deregulated since 1994. Source: Dalberg–GLPGP (2013). However, regulations that took effect in 2009 (based on the 2006 Note: Shares do not add to 100 percent because of rounding.: Energy Act) permit the retail price to be regulated, and a new Energy Bill, not yet enacted, provides for wholesale price regulation. 3 K e n y a ’ s S t r at e g y t o M ak e L i q u e f i e d P e t r o l e u m G as t h e Nat i o n ’ s P r i ma r y C o o k i n g F u e l Figure 1. Retail price of LPG by month, 2016 and 2017 Figure 2. The LPG value chain in Kenya 3.1 2016 2.9 Bulk refill/ 2017 Government capacity import retail Consumer capacity storage wholesale K Sh thousands per 13 kg 2.7 Uptake is presently 2.5 measured as a percentage 2.3 Source: Dalberg–GLPGP (2013), with author’s modifications. of consumers (individuals 2.1 and households) using 1.9 and heating practices, but also (and critically) on their ability to afford LPG, but this metric reflects 1.7 both the fuel and the stoves that burn it. neither the intensity nor 1.5 Uptake is presently measured as a percentage of consumers Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. the sustainability of LPG Month (individuals and households) using LPG, but this metric reflects use. Nor does it account neither the intensity nor the sustainability of LPG use. Nor does it Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. account for the simultaneous use of multiple fuels, a practice known for the simultaneous Note: US$1 ≅ K Sh 100. as fuel stacking. Therefore, the measure tells us little about reduc- use of multiple fuels, a tions in the use of traditional cooking fuels. Because data on quanti- practice known as fuel Under the principal decree of the LPG Exchange Pool regulation, ties of LPG consumed (reported in table 1) include industrial use and stacking. Therefore, the resellers and dealers belonging to the pool must sell LPG in standard- are affected by irregularities in the refilling of cylinders, the apparent measure tells us little about ized cylinders fitted with uniform safety valves, which promote price upward trend in consumption until 2017 is not reliable enough to competition by enabling consumers to have their cylinders refilled at justify a conclusion of sustainable adoption of LPG as cooking fuel. reductions in the use of any retail station. Retailers are required to return cylinders not bearing Indeed, the 2017 price and sales figures (reported in tables 1 and 2) traditional cooking fuels. their own brand to a central depot, where they can exchange them suggest a contrary conclusion. for cylinders belonging to their own “fleet.” Each pool member is The price remains high in part because, as noted, Kenya has no responsible for maintaining its licensed cylinder fleet (as before 2009). properly functioning open tender system for bulk storage of LPG (as it does for other petroleum products). Bulk storage for imported How has the strategy fared? volumes is limited, and handling in port is dominated by a single firm. Compounded by inadequate inland storage, the insufficient Multiple challenges persist along the relatively long bulk storage capacity has resulted in the importation of shipments and complex LPG value chain—including inconsistent of uneconomic size. Together, these factors explain the high landed measures to track uptake, a high consumer price, supply costs that raise prices to Kenyan consumers. Uptake is further undercut by the weak enforcement ability of ineffective regulation, and low popular awareness of the relevant regulatory authority. Its enforcement power is weak LPG’s advantages because the legal status of the exchange pool is not clearly defined Kenya’s LPG value chain is long and complex, extending from the in the 2006 Energy Act and because of the absence of any system government as strategist and planner through importation, bulk for tracking cylinders bearing various dealer brands, which makes storage, wholesaling, and retailing before reaching the consumer it impossible to monitor compliance with the cylinder-exchange (figure 2). Consumer receptivity hinges, of course, on their awareness requirements upon which effective competition, as well as safety, of LPG’s advantages and willingness to alter longstanding cooking depend. The threshold for becoming a member of the pool is just 4 K e n y a ’ s S t r at e g y t o M ak e L i q u e f i e d P e t r o l e u m G as t h e Nat i o n ’ s P r i ma r y C o o k i n g F u e l 5,000 cylinders. Given the low cylinder threshold for pool participa- Kenya’s entire supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has been tion, combined with the relatively long household turnaround time, imported since production at the Mombasa refinery, which had met the current regulation has resulted in some illegal cross-filling of half of domestic demand, was halted in 2013 so that the refinery cylinders not bearing the brand of the firm that initially filled them. could be renovated. Eight percent of Kenya’s LPG is imported over- The poorly regulated cylinder exchange system (with certain land from neighboring Tanzania; the remaining 92 percent comes in An audit is needed to retailers slow to follow through with required exchanges) under- through two terminals at the port of Mombasa, most of it through the understand the cost mines the surveillance of cylinder maintenance and threatens the privately owned terminal. viability of dealers with small fleets of cylinders. Irregularities in The private terminal has a bulk storage capacity of about 26,000 components behind the refilling and poor cylinder maintenance have led to fatal accidents. metric tons and a temporary floating facility of 14,000 metric tons. LPG retail price and to Because of the foregoing problems, LPG is perceived by many The closed Mombasa refinery and the publicly owned terminal are support the introduction Kenyans as less safe than other fuels and more suitable for the able to store just 3,000 metric tons. So far the government has not of a regulatory pricing wealthy. The data available to address safety-related perceptions opted to create a national buffer stock, though doing so would are limited; meanwhile, LPG’s high price relative to that of traditional enable it to stabilize prices—for example, in the case of unforeseen model. Once that is fuels reinforces some of the negative price perceptions. The better supply shortfalls. done, publication of educated (particularly women) are more favorably disposed toward Additional storage facilities (port and inland), a new jetty, and indicative LPG pricing LPG, but Kenya still lacks a critical mass of well-educated people. a supply pipeline are scheduled to be completed by 2019. Looking (and reasonable margins) further out, the import storage capacity is slated for further expan- will encourage price What is Kenya’s government doing to meet sion. In the meantime, overland Tanzanian imports equivalent to about 40,000 metric tons per year were suspended in mid-2017 to competition among brands these challenges? minimize illegal cross-border trade. and raise consumer Projects are under way to improve the government’s The VAT on LPG was cut from 16 percent to zero in mid-2016, but awareness. If the capacity to revise the legislative framework a 16 percent VAT and 25 percent import duty still apply to cylinders implementation of an open surrounding LPG, to lower the price of the fuel, to and accessories (gauges, valves, hoses). High-efficiency cook stoves are subject to a lower VAT than less-efficient models. To make tender system does not manage the LPG subsidy campaign, and to remedy kerosene less cost-competitive, a further increase from the current lower retail prices, price deficiencies in the supply, distribution, and storage 15 percent VAT is being considered. caps could be considered. infrastructure Since 2016, pilot projects have tested smaller sizes bottles, non- Revisions to the LPG metal cylinder fabrics, and the use of mobile phone tokens for refills In early 2015, the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum embarked on a and down payments. Evaluations of these pilots are ongoing. Exchange Pool Regulation six-year World Bank–funded technical assistance project (dubbed A government program—the Mwananchi gas project—to should introduce a KEPTAP) to strengthen its capacity to manage the petroleum subsidize the cost of cylinders was launched in July 2017 (figure 3). sector. Several reforms and capacity-building actions, including the cylinder tracking system Under the multi-year program, between 5 and 15 million cylinders development of an LPG distribution model and public awareness and raise the threshold (1.2 million cylinders per annum), each fitted with a cooking stove, plan, are being pursued. An agency working group was established are to be provided to low-income families.3 The subsidy covers 60 for participation in the in 2016 and a review of regulations affecting LPG was scheduled for percent of the price for the package. Implementation of the program exchange pool to reduce 2017. The 2017 electoral campaign delayed enactment of the new has been entrusted to the National Oil Corporation of Kenya, but, in Energy Act and revision of the related regulations (including the LPG irregularities in refilling. Exchange Pool decree) until 2018. 3 The current national fleet of cylinders numbers no more than four million. As many as fifteen million new cylinders may be needed to meet the 35 percent adoption target. 5 K e n y a ’ s S t r at e g y t o M ak e L i q u e f i e d P e t r o l e u m G as t h e Nat i o n ’ s P r i ma r y C o o k i n g F u e l Figure 3. An advertisement for Kenya’s new subsidized will encourage price competition among brands and raise consumer LPG program awareness. When the common import storage facility is completed, an open tender system will introduce competitiveness and may bring down the landed supply cost. If reduction in the landed cost does not decrease the retail price, retail price caps could be considered. Until the retail price of LPG Revisions to the Exchange Pool Regulation should introduce a has been brought down cylinder tracking system and raise the threshold for participation in the exchange pool to reduce irregularities in refilling. substantially, it is unlikely Review the economics underpinning the intervention that lower-income Kenyans scheme. The commercial viability of the infrastructure projects and will sustainably switch to Source: National Oil, https://nationaloil.co.ke/gas-yetu-the-mwananchi-gas/. the cylinder subsidy program, as well as the potential of the fiscal LPG even after receiving revenue stream along the value chain, need to be clarified. Various actions and conditions—notably the rollout of an open tender a subsidized cylinder. For system for imports upon completion of the infrastructure projects now, therefore, upper- and view of the company’s small share of the LPG market (5 percent), and the distribution of 15 million subsidized cylinders—should be middle-income consumers its capacity will have to be expanded to execute the program. The synchronized to optimize revenue and effectiveness. cylinder subsidy project is expected to be financed from what Promote demand for LPG among upper- and middle-in- are the primary groups to remains of the former kerosene subsidy fund. come consumers. Until the retail price of LPG has been brought target. down substantially, it is unlikely that lower-income Kenyans will What could the government do differently to sustainably switch to LPG even after receiving a subsidized cylinder. accelerate sustainable LPG uptake? In the meantime, the 2015–16 National Household Budget Survey (released in March 2018) and an energy cost efficiency analysis of all More-stringent regulation, a long-term economic cooking fuels should drive the methodology to make LPG attractive view, annual targets using a single uptake metric, to as many consumers as possible. and expanding the market among higher-income Develop annual targets and a clear metric to track prog- groups are the places to start ress in LPG uptake and to make possible timely changes to the implementation program. The deepening of LPG use should Kenya’s government can put its lagging LPG adoption program back be tracked in terms of consumption per capita. The 2019 census on track to achieve the country’s clean cooking goal by 2030. To do will verify actual population growth over the level assumed in 2013. so, it should consider some or all of the following recommendations. On that basis, a target should be developed for yearly total demand Take strong regulatory steps to bring down the retail to 2030. Integrating the per capita rates thus set with the country’s price and minimize unlicensed LPG sales. An audit is needed to national plans, beginning with the Third Medium-Term Plan (2018–22), understand the cost components behind the LPG retail price and to will foster performance tracking and timely adaption of execution support the introduction of a regulatory pricing model. Once that is plans. done, publication of indicative LPG pricing (and reasonable margins) 6 K e n y a ’ s S t r at e g y t o M ak e L i q u e f i e d P e t r o l e u m G as t h e Nat i o n ’ s P r i ma r y C o o k i n g F u e l Sources ———. 2014b. Clean and Improved Cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa. MAKE FURTHER Dalberg, Global LPG Partnership, Global Alliance for Clean Second edition. Report no. 98664. Energy Sector Management CONNECTIONS Assistance Program and Africa Renewable Energy Access Cookstoves. 2013. “GLPGP–Kenya Market Assessment.” August Program, World Bank. November 2014. https://openknowledge. 28. http://cleancookstoves.org/resources/234.html. Live Wire 2015/46. “Results- worldbank.org/handle/10986/22521. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2016. Global Burden Based Financing to Promote World Bank and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. 2016. of Disease study 2016. Seattle. http://ghdx.healthdata.org/ Clean Stoves: Initial Lessons The Cost of Air Pollution: Strengthening the Economic Case for gbd-2016-code. from Pilots in China and Action. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2013–2017 data. Indonesia,” by Yabei Zhang and worldbank.org/handle/10986/25013. For example, https://www.knbs.or.ke/download/ Norma Adams. World LPG Association. 2015. “Accelerating the LPG Transition. leading-economic-indicator-december-2017/. Neuilly-sur-Seine, France. https://www.wlpga.org/publication/ Live Wire 2016/62. “Toward Kojima, M. 2011. “The Role of Liquefied Petroleum Gas in Reducing accelerating-the-lpg-transition-2015/. Universal Access to Clean Poverty.” Extractive Industries for Development Series 25, World Cooking and Heating: Lessons Bank, Washington, DC. December. http://siteresources.worldbank. org/INTOGMC/Resources/LPGReportWeb-Masami.pdf. Acknowledgments from the East Asia and Pacific Clean Stove Initiative,” by Yabei ———. 2012. “Promoting Household Adoption of Bottled Gas.” World Bank, Washington, DC. I would like to express my gratitude to the task team leaders of the Kenya Zhang and Norma Adams. Petroleum Technical Assistance Project, Alexander Huurdeman and David Ministry of Energy and Petroleum. 2016. “SE4All, Kenya Action Reinstein, who provided me with their valuable support. Furthermore, I am Live Wire 2016/63. “The Lao Agenda” https://www.se4all-africa.org/se4all-in-africa/ thankful to Masami Kojima and Richard Hosier, senior energy specialists at Cook Stoves Experience: country-data/kenya/. the World Bank, who offered their expertise. Redefining Health in the Lao National Oil Corporation of Kenya. 2015. “Overview of Oil and Gas Population through the Energy Sector in Kenya,” CEO presentation, October. http://www.rich. Disclaimer Sector Lens,” by Rutu Dave and co.ke/rcfrbs/docs/Sumayya%20Presentation%20on%20the%20 Rema N. Balasundaram. Petroleum%20Sector%20and%20Opportunities.pdf. This work is a product of the staff or a consultant of the World Petroleum Development Consultants. 2005. “Liquefied Petroleum Gas Live Wire 2016/64. “Contextual Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and Demand Study in Kenya and the East Africa Region.” London. Design and Promotion of Clean conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the ———. 2013. “Feasibility Study for Inland Bulk Liquefied Petroleum Biomass Stoves: The Case of views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the Gas Storage and Bottling Facilities in Kenya for KPC.” London. the Indonesia Clean Stove governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee Republic of Kenya. 2013. “Kenya Vision 2030—Second Medium-Term Initiative,” by Laurent Durix, the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, Plan (2013–2017).” http://vision2030.go.ke/2013-2017/. Helene Carlsson Rex, and colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in Van Leeuwen, R., M. Evans, and B. Hyseni. “Increasing the Use of Veronica Mendizabal. this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Liquefied Petroleum Gas in Cooking in Developing Countries.” concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or Live Wire 2017/74, World Bank, Washington, DC. https://open- Live Wire 2017/74, “Increasing acceptance of such boundaries. knowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/26569. the Use of Liquefied Petroleum World Bank. 2014a. “Kenya—Petroleum Technical Assistance Gas in Cooking in Developing Project.” Project Appraisal Document 831, World Bank, Countries,” by Richenda Van Washington, DC. June 30. http://projects.worldbank.org/ Leeuwen, Alex Evans, and P145234?lang=en. Besnik Hyseni. Find these and the entire Live Wire archive at https://openknowledge. worldbank.org/handle/10986/17135.  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