Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: 150002-NG IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT TF0A5966 ON A SMALL GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 0.4 MILLION TO THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA FOR A CONFLICT MONITORING SYSTEM IN NIGERIA PROJECT) JUNE 25, 2020 Poverty and Equity Global Practice Africa Region ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data DEC-LSMS Development Economics – Living Standard Measurement Survey IDA International Development Association IDP Internally Displaced Person NBS National Bureau of Statistics NLSS Nigeria Living Standard Survey OAGF Office of the Accountant General of the Federation PDO Project Development Objective PIU Project Implementation Unit SSA Sub-Saharan Africa TFSCB Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building WB World Bank YESSO Youth Employment and Social Services Operations Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Shubham Chaudhuri Regional Director: Elisabeth Huybens Practice Manager: Andrew L. Dabalen Task Team Leader(s): M Abul Kalam Azad, Sarosh Sattar ICR Main Contributor: M Abul Kalam Azad, Senait Yifru TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ............................................................................ ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES............................................................. 4 II. OUTCOME ................................................................................................................................ 7 (I) Establishment of a call center: ..................................................................................... 7 (II) Delivery of training in call center operation and data quality control: ........................ 7 (III) Improve the capacity through the implementation of four rounds of phone surveys:7 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME..................................... 10 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ..... 10 V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS..................................................................... 11 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ................................................................. 13 ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT................................................................................... 23 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name P160114 Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria Country Financing Instrument Nigeria Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency National Bureau of Statistics(NBS), earlier Federal Office Federal Ministry of Finance of Statistics Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The project development objective is to increase the capacity of NBS to collect data in conflict affected areas using mobile phones to monitor socio-economic conditions and understand how conflict affects the poor. Page 1 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) FINANCING FINANCE_TBL Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) Donor Financing TF-A5966 400,000 400,000 400,000 Total 400,000 400,000 400,000 Total Project Cost 400,000 400,000 400,000 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness Original Closing Actual Closing 27-Oct-2017 27-Nov-2018 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 30-May-2019 0.26 Change in Results Framework Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Implementation Schedule KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Highly Satisfactory High RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 23-May-2019 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.26 Page 2 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Rachid Benmessaoud Shubham Chaudhuri Director: Carolina Sanchez Elisabeth Huybens Practice Manager: Andrew L. Dabalen Andrew L. Dabalen Task Team Leader(s): M Abul Kalam Azad, Sarosh Sattar M Abul Kalam Azad ICR Contributing Author: Senait Kassa Yifru Page 3 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES Context In recent years, conflicts and armed violence are increasingly affecting multiple regions of Nigeria especially the northeast, northcentral and south-south. The violence between Boko Haram and government forces in the northeast in 2014 escalated into a National State of Emergency in May 2014. It is estimated that the conflict has directly affected over 6 million people, forcibly displacing over one million people, and making another four million food insecure. Since 2015, the security situation in the region especially in Borno state has improved significantly, but it has been limited to few Local Government Areas. Reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts have been difficult due to fluctuating security situation. Majority of the displaced population are still in Internally Displaced Person (IDP) camps. Niger Delta crisis or conflict in the south-south region has also caused a great strain on the economy. Attacks on oil facilities and oil theft related violence in the region caused lives and disruption of economic activities. Increased attacks on oil facilities back in 2015/2016 caused production to go down by 30%, which was one of the major contributing factors for the country to fall into recession. Finally, the pastoral conflict in the north central region has recently raised concerns. The conflict is considered to be Nigeria’s biggest security threat because of the rising number of casualties, and most importantly, it’s affecting the food basket of the country since many farmers are no longer harvesting produce. The effect of the conflict on the poor and vulnerable could be devastating and might get worse if not addressed on time. Thus, there has been an increasing demand to investigate how the ongoing conflicts are affecting the lives of the poor in the affected regions. Unfortunately, a comprehensive analysis of the regions and their specific characteristics has not been possible because of the limited availability of data and the difficulty in collecting it with regularity in conflict affected areas. Conflict Monitoring Systems Project was therefore structured with the financial support from the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCB) to help Nigerian government especially the National Bureau of Statistics to put a system in place to collect data from conflict affected/hard to reach areas to inform policy decisions. Also, the intervention was developed to monitor socio-economic conditions and understand how conflict affects the poor through high frequency data collection efforts. Project Development Objectives (PDOs) The project development objective is to increase the capacity of NBS to collect data in conflict affected areas using mobile phones to monitor socio-economic conditions and understand how conflict affects the poor. Page 4 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators (i) Establishment of a call center (yes/no) - to improve NBS’s capacity to respond to emergency requests for policy relevant data through the establishment of a call center; (ii) Delivery of training in call center operation and data quality control (yes/no) - to improve NBS’s capacity through training to maintain/operate a monitoring system/call center and ensure data quality to address emergency data needs; and (iii) Improve capacity through the implementation of four rounds of telephone surveys (Number) - to improve NBS’s overall capacity through the implementation of four rounds of telephone surveys within the project period. The survey implementation process will improve the capacity in the areas of questionnaire design, sample selection, data collection and cleaning, data results reporting. Components The proposed project activities cover five components: Component I: Design and pilot the instruments Planned activities: NBS with the technical assistance from the World Bank to design questionnaires for four rounds of telephone surveys. Focus areas to be identified based on the data need/gap and questionnaires to be designed utilizing the knowledge generated through Listening to Africa and making use of existing and recently generated datasets through nationwide surveys. Finally, questionnaires to be finalized through pilots. Implementation: NBS with the technical assistance from the World Bank designed questionnaires for each round of telephone survey, a total of four rounds of data were collected during the project period. The sample size for each round of phone survey was drawn from the recently completed Nigeria Living Standard Survey. The sample size for each round was representative at the national and sub-national level. Two focus areas were chosen for the survey, effects of herder/farmer conflict on the households and market access for farming households. Component II: Train interviewers Planned activities: The project to enable the NBS to engage a private firm for the training of the NBS staff members, supervisors and interviewers, on the operation of the call center and related quality control measures in the process to capture and record data. The World Bank to provide technical assistance in the training of the NBS staff members to ensure the quality and enhance effectiveness of the training. In providing technical assistance the Poverty and Equity team of the World Bank to build on experience of Listening to Africa. Implementation: NBS engaged a private firm with experience in telephone interviews, through a competitive process, for the training of the NBS staff members, supervisors and interviewers engaged in the project implementation process. Selected staff members were trained on the operation of the call center and related quality control measures in the process to capture and record data. The World Bank provided technical assistance to ensure the quality and to enhance effectiveness of the training provided. In providing technical assistance the Poverty and Equity team of the World Bank made use of the experience gathered during the implementation of Listening to Africa. Page 5 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) Component III: Establish monitoring system Planned activities: A telephone communication/call center that can routinely collect data from households or respondents in the areas with cell phone network to be established inside the National Bureau of Statistics. A private company with prior experience in setting up and running call centers to be procured through a competitive process for the call center set-up, training of NBS staff, supervision and data quality monitoring. Implementation: A telephone communication/call center with the capacity to routinely collect data from households or respondents in the areas with cell phone network was established in the National Bureau of Statistics Headquarter in Abuja. A private company with prior experience in setting up and running call centers was procured through a competitive process for the call center set-up, training of NBS staff, supervision and data quality monitoring. To improve the response rate of the data collection using the call center incentives in the form of call time, up to a US dollar equivalent, were provided to every participating households for four rounds. Component IV: Data collection and data entry Planned activities: A total of 4 rounds of data to be collected during the project period. A data entry protocol to be developed to limit errors and to processes the information quickly. Different CAPI options to be explored and the best option to be used. Implementation: Four rounds of data were collected during the project period. World Bank's survey solutions platform was used for the programming of the questionnaires and data quality monitoring, capturing and storage; survey solutions is a very effective platform widely used by the World Bank member countries, including Nigeria, for nationwide large-scale surveys. However, the implementation team was trained on the use of the platform during the course of four rounds of data collection ending in December 2019. Four rounds of phone surveys focused on two different areas, market access for farming households and effects of herder/farmer conflict on households and agricultural practices. Data collected during the two rounds of market access survey will minimize the data gap and help government to adopt policies to address challenges farming households face in accessing market and credit. Two rounds of surveys on the effects of herder/farmer conflict on households will inform policies in addressing crisis in affected states. Component V: Data analysis and reporting Planned activities: Results to be analyzed and condensed into a four-page brief and to be disseminated among stakeholders, development partners and posted on the National Bureau of Statistics website. Data published in the NBS website to be accessible by the public, and the download will be free of charge. In addition, dissemination events will also be organized by the NBS to broaden the dissemination. Implementation: The implementation team generated short briefs and tables of results upon completion of each round of phone surveys with the technical assistance from the task team. NBS disseminated the results among the teams within NBS, the task team at the Bank and development partners. Greater public dissemination of the results hasn't taken place yet due to ongoing COVID-19 crisis. But once the ongoing emergency situation comes to Page 6 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) a level of normalcy, NBS will take steps towards greater dissemination of results including publication of datasets in the NBS website. II. OUTCOME Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome (I) Establishment of a call center: A call center was established in August of 2019 in the National Bureau of Statistics' headquarter in Abuja to enable the agency to implement phone surveys in hard to reach areas and collect data to instrument decision making process. The call center is comprised of 18 workstations with equipment, including desktop computer, telephone/web-based phones, headphones and software appropriate for phone surveys. 1 unit of IP-PBX software, 1 unit of GSM gateway (Yeaster TG1600 VOIP), 18 unit of interactive voice response system software, 1 unit of customer relationship management software and 1 unit of call recording system software were installed to implement surveys and control data quality. In addition, a training room was put in place adjacent to the call center with projector, large screen and seating capacity for 20 persons. This training room was used to provide capacity building training as well as for dissemination of results. Finally, both the call and the training centers were connected to the solar power to ensure uninterrupted power supply during the training as well as data collection. This was an important step given that the power supply from the national grid is heavily unreliable. (II) Delivery of training in call center operation and data quality control: A total of five training programs were organized for 25 participants in the month of August and September 2019 on call center operation and data quality control. The very first training focused on the call center operation especially on the interface, conduct of phone surveys, supervisors’ role in quality control and data recording. Rest of four training programs focused on four rounds of planned phone surveys, but these were the vehicles to strengthen the capacity of the NBS in the identification of the areas of focus for the survey, design, planning and implementation of phone surveys using the call center platform. (III) Improve the capacity through the implementation of four rounds of phone surveys: NBS implemented a total of four rounds of phone surveys focusing on two different areas during the period September through December 2019. The first round of phone survey focused on the market access for farming households, including inputs and outputs and access to credit. The focus area for the first round of phone survey was determined based on the data gap in the agriculture/farming heavy states. Data was collected from a total of six states in the month of September and October; Plateau, Adamawa, Jigawa, Ebonyi, Cross River and Ekiti States. The sample was a subset of Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) and representative at the national and sub-national level. Page 7 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) The second round of phone survey focused on the effects of herder/farmer conflict on households and agricultural practices in heavily affected states. The survey was implemented in the month of October and November. Four states were selected for phone survey based on highest number of reported conflict events recorded in the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) base. Data was collected from Nasarawa, Benue, Plateau and Kaduna States. The sample was again a subset of NLSS and representative at the national and sub-national level. Third round of phone survey again focused on the market access for farming households and data was collected in the month of November and December of 2019. The third round collected data from additional six states; Borno, Benue, Bayelsa, Taraba, Zamfara and Rivers states. Two rounds of phone surveys collected data from 2 states per geo-political zones with the highest level of agricultural activities. Data collected during these two rounds will minimize the data gap and help government to adopt policies to address challenges farming households face in accessing market and credit. The fourth round of phone survey again focused on the effects of herder/farmer conflict on households and agricultural practices. The survey was implemented in two additional states, Taraba and Zamfara, in the month of December 2019. These two states were chosen based on the ACLED dataset and their ranking in terms of the number of reported herder/farmer conflict events. The sample was again the sub-set of NLSS and representative at the national and sub-national level. Overall Outcome Rating Overall out rating is ‘satisfactory (S)’. Other Outcomes and Impacts National Bureau of Statistics had outcomes in four key areas; (I) monitoring systems, (II) capacity building in high frequency phone surveys, (III) phone surveys and data analysis, and (IV) dissemination to inform policies. (I) Monitoring systems: The project established a call center as well as a training center as a key element of the monitoring system. The call center was put in place with 18 workstations equipped with necessary devices, including desk phones, computers, internet connection, connection to solar panels for uninterrupted power supply and access to World Bank’s survey solutions platform for data collections. The call center has facilities for 16 enumerators and 2 supervisors to carry out phone surveys. The training center was put in place for 20 participants to implement any survey related training programs and dissemination. (II) Capacity building in high frequency phone surveys: The project has implemented a series of training programs to NBS staff members assigned to the call center with focuses on call center operation, survey monitoring mechanism, data quality control and data collection using the call center. These training programs were provided by the contractor engaged for the setup of the call center and the support system. Page 8 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) In addition, World Bank task team organized training programs specific to planned surveys. The team provided training to NBS call center staff members on how to use survey solutions platform for questionnaire development, data collection process and data quality control. (III) Phone surveys and data analysis: NBS in collaboration with the World Bank Poverty team has carried out a total of six rounds of phone surveys, two prior to setting up the call center as pilots (both a & b) and four rounds with two focus areas using the call center. Focuses of these six rounds of phone surveys were: a. Pilot: Effect of conflicts in the NE, NC and SS on households b. Pilot: Food security situation in conflict affected regions; NE, NC and SS c. Two rounds of surveys focusing on effects of farmer/herder conflict on the households and agricultural practices d. Two rounds of surveys focusing on market access for farming households, including inputs and outputs and access to credit (IV) Dissemination to inform policies: NBS has disseminated the results from first two rounds of phone surveys that were piloted prior to the setting up of the call center through a dissemination event in April 2018 and published the datasets in their website. On the four rounds of phone surveys carried out using the call center, the implementation team generated short briefs and tables of results upon completion of each round of phone surveys with the technical assistance from the task team. NBS disseminated the results among the teams within NBS, the task team at the Bank and development partners. Greater public dissemination of the results hasn't taken place yet due to ongoing COVID-19 crisis. But once the ongoing emergency situation comes to a level of normalcy, NBS will take steps towards greater dissemination of results including publication of datasets in the NBS website. Impact/Sustainability: Conflict Monitoring Systems Project has been a very useful intervention for the NBS. The project enabled NBS to set up a call center and strengthen their capacity in carrying out phone surveys in conflict affected/hard to reach areas. Data generated through different phone surveys so far has instrumented policy decisions in the conflict affected and hard to reach regions. World Bank financed Youth Employment and Social Services Operations (YESSO) has used the evidence from the first two pilot rounds of phone surveys to incorporate a cash transfer component for IDPs in Borno State. In addition, the call center within the NBS is now being used to carry out high frequency phone surveys to inform COVID-19 response policies. NBS has completed two rounds of surveys and is on the third round now. There will be twelve rounds of phone surveys over a period of a year to inform COVID response policies as well as post COVID recovery process. The call center is also being used to implement the labor force survey. It’s a test intervention since LFS has been a traditional survey where enumerators collected data in-person from the field. If the phone survey proves to be effective for LFS, follow up rounds will be carried out over the phone. Regular use of the call center for different surveys beyond planned ones under the project to generate data quickly to inform policy decisions show that the intervention has been sustainable. Page 9 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME The project experienced significant delays with effectiveness due to the delay at the Ministry of Finance around grant and subsidiary grant agreements and legal opinion. The delay was beyond client's and task team's control. By the time project was declared effective, it was already towards the end of its closing date. Therefore, the client requested to extend the closing date from May 31st of 2019 to December 31st of 2019 to fully deliver on the planned activities. Considering the request, the project was restructured to extend the closing date to December 31st, 2019. This allowed the implementing agency to deliver fully on the agreed and planned activities. Upon effectiveness, the project experienced delays in setting up the client connection and procurement clearance due to system glitch. This took over two weeks to address. Except for the initial delays, the project hasn’t faced any other challenges with the implementation. All the planned activities were implemented properly, and the project showed to have sustained within few months upon closing. IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME Quality at entry: The project was designed in close collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics, World Bank team working on the Listening to Africa program, and the Poverty and Equity Global Practice team of the World Bank to introduce a new mechanism to collect data from conflict affected and hard to reach areas, fill the data gap and instrument decision making process. Project components and implementation strategies were identified and structured through extensive review of the strengths and weaknesses in the statistical system as well as factoring in the data gap to inform policies. The technical aspects at entry were addressed by taking into account lessons learned from survey design and implementation from Listening to Africa program. Quality of supervision: National Burau of Statistics (NBS), the implementing agency, has been appreciative of task team’s continuous support and supervision starting from project design to effectiveness process to implementation. NBS has especially been thankful for continuous efforts in the effectiveness process and capacity building efforts. The agency is also very appreciative of the support that task team provided to pave the way for sustainability; upon completion of the project the task team/Nigeria Poverty & Equity GP team in collaboration with the DEC LSMS team partnered with the NBS to implement high-frequency phone surveys to inform COVID response policies utilizing the call center platform as well as provided technical assistance for the use of call center for Labor Force Survey. Overall, the implementing agency is of the opinion that the Bank performance was strong and very effective in supporting and supervising the project implementation process. Page 10 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) Overall rating of the World Bank performance: Based on the justifications of both quality at entry and quality of supervision, the overall bank performance rate is Satisfactory. Risk to development outcome: Sustainable financing doesn’t seem to be a challenge in this particular case given the demand of the call center in generating quick data to inform policies. Upon completion of the project, NBS planned a series of surveys including high-frequency phone surveys to inform COVID response policies with the World Bank and quarterly Labor Force Surveys over the phone. In addition, there are a lot of interests among development partners to make use of the call center for quick surveys. Moreover, the agency has the base information through Nigeria Living Standard Survey, General Household Survey and few other nationwide surveys and access to household phone numbers to design phone surveys representative at the national and sub- national levels to inform policies. All these will increase the demand even further. V. LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS Lessons learned: Data collection on mobile platform in areas with high cell phone penetration rate is cost effective, quick and efficient. The mechanism has been proven to be effective, which is evident through this project in Nigeria and so as in many other countries in Africa through Listening to Africa program. But the intervention has limitations as well. Phone surveys should be quite short, not more than 20-25 minutes. A phone survey beyond 25 minutes leads to poor quality data because the respondent loses concentration, which is quite different in an in-person survey. Phone surveys usually capitalize listing and survey data for sample selection, which has been the case in Nigeria. In such a scenario, households that are more mobile or nomadic are less likely to be represented in the sample. There are some disadvantages to the phone system, and for this reason it should be supplemented by additional types of data collection wherever possible. In a mobile phone survey, the respondent is the person who owns a mobile phone. In many areas, particularly those highly affected by poverty and those located in rural areas, only one family member owns a mobile phone. This is generally the household head, who is most likely male. Furthermore, in many of these communities, women are not allowed to have access to mobile phones and are forbidden from speaking to outsiders, which can prohibit mobile phone-based data collection. Irrespective of many limitations, phone surveys could be an effective mechanism to collect data from conflict affected areas. The mechanism is sometimes more effective in a conflict setting, which allows the respondents to answer questions related to conflict exposure and experience maintaining privacy and without the fear of retaliation. Finally, phone survey is a great way of collecting data quickly and is cost effective. Page 11 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) Recommendations: • Phone surveys should be short, not more than 20-25 minutes. • Questionnaires should be structured in a way that the respondents respond with full understanding. • Enumerators should be trained keeping the nature and limitations of phone surveys in mind. Enumeration on phone platform is quite different from in-person interviews. • A token incentive helps to keep the respondent engaged especially in a panel survey, but information on the incentive should not be revealed at the beginning of the interview, which might bias the response. . itou Page 12 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Objective/Outcome: (i) Establishment of a call center (yes/no) (ii) Delivery of training in call center operation and data quality control (yes/no) (iii) Improve capacity through the implementation of four round Unlinked Indicators Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Establishment of a call center Yes/No N Y Y Y 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): A call center was established back in August of 2019 in the National Bureau of Statistics' headquarter in Abuja to enable the agency to implement phone surveys in hard to reach areas and collect data to instrument decision making process. The call center is comprised of 18 work stations with equipment, including desktop computer, telephone/web-based phones, headphones and software appropriate for phone surveys. 1 unit of IP-PBX software, 1 unit of GSM gateway (Yeaster TG1600 VOIP), 18 unit of interactive voice response system software, 1 unit of customer relationship management software and 1 unit of call recording system software were installed to implement surveys and control data quality. In addition, a training room was put in place adjacent to the call center with projector, large screen and seating capacity for 20 persons. This training room Page 13 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) was used to provide capacity building training as well as for dissemination of results. Finally, both the call and the training centers were connected to the solar power to ensure uninterrupted power supply during the training as well as data collection. This was an important step given that the power supply from the national grid is heavily unreliable. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Delivery of training in call Yes/No N Y Y Y center operation and data quality control 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): A total of five training programs were organized for 25 participants in the month of August and September on call center operation and data quality control. The very first training focused on the call center operation especially on the interface, conduct of phone surveys, supervisors role in quality control and data recording. Rest of four training programs focused on four rounds of planned phone surveys, but these were the vehicles to strengthen the capacity of the NBS in the identification of the areas of focus for the survey, design, planning and implementation of phone surveys using the call center platform. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Improve capacity through the Number 2.00 0.00 4.00 4.00 implementation of four rounds of telephone surveys 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 14 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) NBS implemented a total of four rounds of phone surveys focusing on two different areas during the period September through December, 2019. The first round of phone survey focused on the market access for farming households, including inputs and outputs and access to credit. The focus area for the first round of phone survey was determined based on the data gap in the agriculture/farming heavy states. Data was collected from a total of six states in the month of September and October; Plateau, Adamawa, Jigawa, Ebonyi, Cross River and Ekiti States. The sample was a subset of Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) and representative at the state level. The second round of phone survey focused on the effects of herder/farmer conflict on households and agricultural practices in heavily affected states. The survey was implemented in the month of October and November. Four states were selected for phone survey based on highest number of reported conflict events recorded in the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) base. Data was collected from Nasarawa, Benue, Plateau and Kaduna States. The sample was again a subset of NLSS and representative at the state level. Third round of phone survey again focused on the market access for farming households and data was collected in the month of November and December of 2019. The third round collected data from additional six states; Borno, Benue, Bayelsa, Taraba, Zamfara and Rivers states. Two rounds of phone surveys collected data from 2 states per geo-political zones with the highest level of agricultural activities. Data collected during these two rounds will minimize the data gap and help government to adopt policies to address challenges farming households face in accessing market and credit. The fourth round of phone survey again focused on the effects of herder/farmer conflict on households and agricultural practices. The survey was implemented in two additional states, Taraba and Zamfara, in the month of December, 2019. These two states were chosen based on the ACLED dataset and their ranking in terms of the number of reported herder/farmer conflict events. The sample was again the sub-set of NLSS and representative at the State level. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Component: Component 1: Design and pilot the instrument Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Page 15 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) Production of telephone survey Yes/No Y Y Y Y data collection instruments 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): NBS has developed two questionnaires for four rounds of phone surveys under the supervision of the task team. Challenges around market access for farming households and effects of herder/farmer conflict events on households were the two focus areas for the questionnaires. These two questionnaires were developed in the month of September and October. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Piloting of each questionnaire Yes/No N Y Y Y 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Questionnaires in two focus areas were piloted and finalized prior to every round of phone surveys. The piloting of questionnaires took place during the month of September though December 2019. Component: Component 2: Train interviewers and supervisors Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Delivery of training materials Yes/No N Y Y Y Page 16 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Training materials on the call center operations were developed by the company engaged for call center set up. Training materials were delivered in the month of August, 2019. These were finalized after a careful review by the implementing agency, NBS, and the task team. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Delivery of training of Yes/No N Y Y Y supervisors and interviewers 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Supervisors and enumerators received training in different stages and in different focus areas. The first set of training focused on call center operations, data quality monitoring and data recording. The second set of training were on the survey implementation in two focus areas. The training efforts started in August and completed in December of 2019. Component: Component 3: Establish a call center/monitoring system Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Procurement of a private firm Yes/No N Y Y Y with experience in setting up and running a call center 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Page 17 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) Comments (achievements against targets): The procurement of a firm for the supply and installation of various items for the establishment of a call center was completed in May, 2019. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Setting up of a call center Yes/No N Y Y Y 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Call center set up completed on Aug 1st, 2019. Component: Component 4: Data collection and data entry Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Four rounds of data collection Number 2.00 0.00 4.00 4.00 using the call center 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): NBS implemented a total of four rounds of phone surveys focusing on two different areas during the period September through December, 2019. The first round of phone survey focused on the market access for farming households, including inputs and outputs and access to credit. The focus area for Page 18 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) the first round of phone survey was determined based on the data gap in the agriculture/farming heavy states. Data was collected from a total of six states in the month of September and October; Plateau, Adamawa, Jigawa, Ebonyi, Cross River and Ekiti States. The sample was a subset of Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) and representative at the state level. The second round of phone survey focused on the effects of herder/farmer conflict on households and agricultural practices in heavily affected states. The survey was implemented in the month of October and November. Four states were selected for phone survey based on highest number of reported conflict events recorded in the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) base. Data was collected from Nasarawa, Benue, Plateau and Kaduna States. The sample was again a subset of NLSS and representative at the state level. Third round of phone survey again focused on the market access for farming households and data was collected in the month of November and December of 2019. The third round collected data from additional six states; Borno, Benue, Bayelsa, Taraba, Zamfara and Rivers states. Two rounds of phone surveys collected data from 2 states per geo-political zones with the highest level of agricultural activities. Data collected during these two rounds will minimize the data gap and help government to adopt policies to address challenges farming households face in accessing market and credit. The fourth round of phone survey again focused on the effects of herder/farmer conflict on households and agricultural practices. The survey was implemented in two additional states, Taraba and Zamfara, in the month of December, 2019. These two states were chosen based on the ACLED dataset and their ranking in terms of the number of reported herder/farmer conflict events. The sample was again the sub-set of NLSS and representative at the State level. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Development of data entry Yes/No N Y Y Y application 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): Page 19 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) World Bank's survey solutions platform was used for the programming of the questionnaires and data capturing. The team was trained on the use of the platform during the course of four rounds of data collection ending in Dec 2019. Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Data entry Yes/No N Y Y Y 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): World Bank's survey solutions platform was used for the data capturing and the team was provided necessary training in this area. Data entry was carried out over the course of four rounds of phone surveys implemented during the months from September through December of 2019. Component: Component 5: Data reporting Unit of Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Baseline Original Target Measure Target Completion Data reporting Number 2.00 0.00 4.00 4.00 05-Oct-2017 31-May-2019 31-Dec-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments (achievements against targets): The implementation team generated tables of results upon completion of each round of phone surveys and disseminated among the teams within NBS, the task team at the Bank and development partners. Greater public dissemination of the results hasn't taken place yet due to ongoing COVID-19 crisis. Page 20 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) Page 21 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) B. ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSESSMENT OF THE PDO PDO: The project development objective is to increase the capacity of NBS to collect data in conflict affected areas using mobile phones to monitor socio-economic conditions and understand how conflict affects the poor. Objective/Outcome 1: To collect data in conflict affected areas using mobile phones 1. Establishment of a call center Outcome Indicators 1. Production of telephone survey data collection instruments 2. Piloting of each questionnaire Intermediate Results Indicators 3. Delivery of training materials 4. Delivery of training of supervisors and interviewers 1. Four rounds of data collection using the call center Key Outputs by Component 2. Development of data entry application (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 3. Data entry established 4. Data reporting mechanism developed Objective/Outcome 2: To monitor socio-economic conditions and understand how conflict affects the poor. Delivery of training in call center operation and data quality control Outcome Indicators 1. Procurement of a private firm with experience in setting up and Intermediate Results Indicators running a call center 2. Setting up of a call center Key Outputs by Component Improve capacity through the implementation of four rounds of (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) telephone surveys election, data collection and cleaning, data results reporting. Page 22 of 22 The World Bank Conflict Monitoring System in Nigeria (P160114) . ANNEX 2. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (US$M) 1. Design and pilot the 0 .03 0 instruments 2.Train interviewers 0 .04 0 3. Establish monitoring 0 .12 0 system 4.Data collection and data 0 .12 0 entry 5. Data analysis and reporting 0 .08 0 Total 0.00 0.39 0.00 Page 23 of 22