For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects December 9, 2016 Taking Stock U.S. jobless claims fell, total factory orders rose strongly in October. U.S. initial unemployment claims fell by 10,000 rd to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 in the week ended December 3 , in line with expectations, pointing to sustained strength in the labor market. New orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose 2.7 percent (m/m, sa) in October, the largest monthly gain since June 2015, following September’s 0.6 percent increase (Figure 1). Most of the increase in October reflected a surge in orders for transportation equipment. Orders for core capital goods - non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft – rose a more modest 0.2 percent in October, following a 1.5 percent decline in September. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged, extended but scaled back its asset purchase program; Euro Area Q3 GDP growth stayed steady. At its December policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged and extended its bond-buying program until the end of 2017. However, starting in April 2017, the ECB will buy €60 billion of bonds each month, down from €80 billion currently. In its statement, the ECB noted that the calibration of the asset- purchase program reflects the moderate but firming economic recovery of the Euro Area. Meanwhile, a third estimate of Euro Area GDP growth for Q3 came in at 0.3 percent (q/q, sa), in line with expectations, unchanged from Q2 (Figure 2). Japan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised lower. The revised estimate of Japan’s GDP showed that the Japanese economy expanded by 0.3 percent (q/q, sa) in Q3, lower than the initial estimate of 0.5 percent, owing to a contraction in business spending. This brought the year-on-year growth to 1.3 percent in Q3, down from the preliminary estimate of 2.2 percent. China’s reserves continued to fall, external trade rebounded strongly. China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell by $69 billion to $3.05 trillion in November, a 2.2 percent decline from October’s level. November’s drop, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, was the largest since January 2016. This reflected in part valuation effects, and central bank intervention. Meanwhile, both exports and imports increased more than expected in dollar terms in November. China’s exports rose 0.1 percent (y/y), compared to a fall of 7.3 percent in October, helped by currency depreciation. Imports grew 6.7 percent (y/y), after falling 1.4 percent in October, driven by increased demand for raw materials and energy supplies. South Africa’s manufacturing and min ing production contracted in October. South Africa’s manufacturing production decreased by 2.7 percent (y/y) in October, compared to September’s flat reading (0 .0 percent y/y), reflecting largely a contraction in the automotive sector. Mining production fell by 2.9 percent (y/y) after rising 4.7 percent in September. The largest decreases were recorded in the production of nickel, platinum, and copper. The weaker-than-expected performance in the mining and manufacturing sectors does not bode well for overall growth in Q4 and 2016 as a whole. Figure 1 U.S. factory goods orders surged in October, driven Figure 2 Euro Area GDP growth remained steady in Q3. by orders for transportation equipment. U.S. total factory orders Euro Area GDP growth Percent change, m/m Total orders Percent Percent 3 Excl. transportation 4 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 GDP (q/q, RHS) -2 -4 GDP (y/y, LHS) -2 -5 -3 -6 -3 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Oct-15 Feb-15 Jun-16 Oct-16 Jun-15 Feb-16 Source: The Commerce Department. Source: Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG. Number 328 | December 9, 2016 Weekly Insight: Initial Financial Market Reaction to Negative Interest Rate Policy Announcements On the day of the announcement of negative interest rate policies (NIRP), money market rates and sovereign bond yields fell, and equity prices increased. Inflation expectations remained broadly unchanged, and exchange rate movements were mixed. An event study can be used to analyze the initial impact of NIRP announcements on key financial variables. The event study, using daily data, helps isolate the effects of monetary policy announcements from other economic developments. The “event” is defined as a policy rate cut announcement into negative territory by the five major central banks implementing NIRP: Bank of Japan (BOJ), Danmarks Nationalbank (DNB), European Central Bank (ECB), Swedish Riksbank, and Swiss National Bank (SNB). The event study tracked seven variables: 1- and 3-month interbank market rates, 2- and 10-year bond yields, 10-year inflation expectations, nominal effective exchange rates, and equity prices. The study was restricted to a one-day event window around the announcement, as longer windows are likely to include the effects of other unrelated developments. Events were pooled over time and across countries, and changes in the variables of interest were averaged within the observation window. The event study indicates that on the day of NIRP announcements, money market rates on average declined by 2 to 3 basis points, and 2-year sovereign bond yields dropped by close to 6 basis points. Yields on 10-year sovereign bonds fell by nearly 4 basis points (Figure 3). Inflation expectations were broadly unchanged around policy announcements, while developments in foreign exchange rate markets were mixed, with the sharp appreciation in the Swiss franc in January 2015 having a large influence on the sample average. If the event window is extended up to one month, qualitatively similar but generally larger results are obtained, even though this longer window is likely to be influenced by factors unrelated to NIRP. Country-specific changes in key financial variables varied significantly. The largest movements in money market rates and bond yields were observed in Switzerland, Japan, and Denmark (Figure 4), possibly reflecting the fact that policy rate cuts were more significant or policy changes were unexpected. NIRP announcements by the ECB were associated with a relatively subdued drop in bond yields, probably reflecting the fact that complementary policies were, on net, less expansionary than expected by financial markets. Exchange rate and equity market developments were also mixed in the Euro Area. Although the range of outcomes varied significantly across countries, NIRP appear to have been associated with the expected decline in interest rates and bond yields in most cases. Figure 3 On the day of NIRP announcements, interest rates and Figure 4 The largest movements in money market rates and bond bond yields declined. yields were observed in Switzerland. Changes in money market rates and bond yields Country specific changes in interest rates and bond yields Basis points Average Median Basis points Euro Area Sweden 2 Denmark Switzerland Japan 0 0 -5 -2 -10 -4 -15 -6 -20 interbank rate government government bond yields bond yields interbank rate interbank rate government government interbank rate bond yields bond yields 10-year 10-year 1-month 2-year 1-month 3-month 2-year 3-month Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, European Central Bank, Riksbank, Danmarks Nationalbank, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, World Bank. Notes: Basis points or percent change between closing values on the day before the NIRP announcement and closing values on the day of the announcement. The government bond yields are on benchmark bonds for each country, except for the European Central Bank events where they are from the ECB’s Euro Area fitted yield curve. Figure 3: Pooled average and median across NIRP announcements by five major central banks: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, Swedish Riksbank and Danmarks Nationalbank. Figure 4: NIRP announcements are: four events for European Central Bank, one for Bank of Japan, two for the Swiss National Bank, four for the Swedish Riksbank and six for Danmarks Nationalbank. Produced by DECPG. Number 328 | December 9, 2016 Major Data Releases (Percent change y-o-y) (Percent change y-o-y) Recent releases: Fri, 02 December - Thu, 08 December 2016 Upcoming releases: Fri, 09 December - Thu, 15 December 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Hungary 12/6/16 GDP Q3 1.6 1.8 Turkey 12/12/16 GDP Q3 3.0 Bulgaria 12/6/16 GDP Q3 3.4 3.6 Germany 12/13/16 CPI NOV 0.8 South Africa 12/6/16 GDP Q3 0.7 0.7 0.6 UK 12/13/16 CPI NOV 0.9 Eurozone 12/6/16 GDP Q2 1.7 1.6 1.6 South Africa 12/14/16 CPI NOV 6.4 Australia 12/6/16 GDP Q3 1.8 2.4 3.3 New Zealand 12/14/16 GDP Q3 3.6 Japan 12/7/16 GDP Q3 1.3 2.2 2.2 United States 12/15/16 CPI NOV 1.6 Activity and Inflation (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct 1 Industrial Production, sa World 3.2 1.9 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.5 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.8 - Advanced Economies 2.0 0.5 -1.4 0.2 -0.1 2.1 -1.3 0.2 -1.1 -1.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.3 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.5 3.4 4.6 2.3 4.2 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.6 3.1 3.7 4.1 3.4 3.8 3.4 - Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.0 -0.3 1.3 0.6 1.6 0.1 -1.4 0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.8 0.5 1.8 1.8 1.0 -0.1 - Other EMDE 6.8 5.1 6.0 3.0 5.3 3.3 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.7 4.5 4.3 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 5.8 7.7 3.4 7.1 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.5 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.4 5.5 5.5 East Asia excl. China 3.0 3.6 5.8 4.3 3.6 5.4 2.0 5.5 5.5 3.2 2.0 5.7 6.5 6.0 6.3 2.1 - Europe and Central Asia 2.7 0.5 4.3 1.2 0.3 -4.0 1.2 1.6 3.1 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 -0.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -3.2 -6.5 -2.9 0.5 -1.1 -4.5 -4.3 -4.9 -4.4 -4.3 -3.7 -2.1 -2.6 -2.8 -2.2 - Middle East and North Africa 0.8 2.6 9.6 2.3 -3.4 - 2.1 6.6 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 3.2 4.4 - - - South Asia 2.6 4.2 -7.2 4.6 5.5 -6.8 0.9 0.2 3.4 2.5 -0.4 1.6 3.1 -2.0 -1.7 0.2 - Sub-Saharan Africa -0.1 0.1 -1.3 1.5 8.3 -6.1 0.2 -0.8 1.5 -1.3 2.4 4.1 4.3 1.4 0.0 -0.1 - Inflation, sa 2 World 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.4 Advanced Economies 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.3 2.5 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.6 Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.6 3.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.4 Other EMDE 2.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.4 East Asia and Pacific 3.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.3 2.4 Europe and Central Asia 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 Latin America and Caribbean 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 Middle East and North Africa 2.7 1.9 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.5 1.9 South Asia 6.8 3.5 3.0 3.5 4.8 4.8 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.5 4.4 4.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.0 6.0 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 3.7 4.7 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industral production, manufacturing" and "industrial production, manufacturing, non-durable manufacturing, petroleum and coal products, crude petrolem products" are used as proxies 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping. Trade and Finance (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.1 -11.6 -5.9 -12.4 14.6 -1.1 -10.1 -12.1 -9.1 -3.6 -2.8 -3.0 -3.9 -6.7 2.7 -0.9 - Advanced Economies 1.2 -11.3 -7.0 -5.0 15.5 -1.9 -10.0 -9.3 -4.0 -3.5 -0.3 -0.6 -2.3 -5.5 5.0 0.8 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies 0.8 -12.0 -4.2 -23.6 13.0 0.5 -10.3 -16.4 -16.6 -4.0 -7.2 -7.0 -6.4 -8.5 -1.1 -3.7 - Commodity-exporting EMDE -4.6 -24.2 -11.8 -24.6 19.0 4.7 -20.9 -24.6 -13.4 -15.3 -13.3 -10.6 -11.6 -13.5 0.1 0.3 - Other EMDE 4.9 -3.8 -0.1 -21.6 11.0 -0.9 -3.9 -11.7 -17.7 4.0 -3.1 -4.3 -2.8 -5.5 -0.8 -4.6 -4.4 East Asia and Pacific 4.6 -3.5 -0.5 -25.8 12.2 -1.2 -4.2 -13.9 -21.1 5.6 -4.7 -5.8 -4.9 -6.6 -1.4 -6.6 -5.5 Europe and Central Asia -0.9 -20.7 -7.7 -20.2 21.5 0.4 -14.7 -22.1 -13.0 -13.1 -8.2 -10.4 -3.9 -8.6 1.5 -0.6 - Latin America and Caribbean -1.0 -12.0 -8.3 -6.9 5.2 6.1 -11.6 -11.6 -4.1 -9.2 -5.4 -2.1 -8.1 -7.5 2.2 2.1 -6.2 Middle East and North Africa -5.1 -26.3 -7.6 - - - -22.1 -23.2 - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -4.8 14.6 5.7 4.1 -10.7 -5.3 -3.0 4.2 -0.3 1.1 -0.3 5.2 -3.9 5.9 6.8 - Sub-Saharan Africa -6.5 -28.8 -17.5 -28.0 - - -28.3 -27.5 -22.9 -19.7 -13.4 - - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.2 -12.6 -6.2 -14.1 10.3 -3.3 -11.2 -11.7 -5.3 -7.5 -6.0 -2.4 -5.3 -10.0 1.3 -2.3 - Advanced Economies 2.1 -12.5 -6.3 -9.5 8.3 -5.0 -11.2 -9.7 -2.7 -6.7 -4.0 -1.9 -4.7 -8.7 1.1 -2.3 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies -0.4 -12.8 -6.0 -21.4 14.3 0.4 -11.1 -15.1 -9.8 -8.7 -9.2 -3.1 -5.9 -12.1 2.3 -1.9 - Commodity-exporting EMDE -2.3 -14.9 -11.4 -18.4 0.0 -0.3 -17.2 -18.1 -15.2 -13.7 -13.7 -9.2 -8.4 -15.8 -1.4 -6.3 - Other EMDE 0.8 -11.5 -2.8 -24.3 19.8 0.6 -7.5 -13.3 -6.9 -6.4 -7.6 -0.7 -5.5 -11.4 3.7 -0.6 -0.5 East Asia and Pacific -0.5 -13.1 -0.6 -28.7 24.7 3.4 -8.4 -16.7 -11.1 -5.3 -8.1 0.8 -6.6 -11.0 5.5 -0.5 0.1 Europe and Central Asia -3.7 -20.7 -9.4 3.6 12.0 -5.4 -18.0 -14.8 -5.0 -3.6 -3.1 -1.4 1.1 -10.2 8.3 1.6 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -9.9 -12.4 -17.1 3.8 2.9 -15.7 -16.3 -9.9 -14.6 -10.0 -6.3 -8.9 -16.0 1.3 -3.2 -8.7 Middle East and North Africa 2.9 -6.3 -4.5 - - - -10.1 -13.0 - - - - - - - - - South Asia 1.1 -13.2 -13.6 -29.1 2.3 11.4 -3.3 -6.9 -3.5 -18.8 -18.7 -9.3 -7.0 -14.7 -9.6 -0.8 6.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 -7.4 -8.4 - - - -11.5 -18.7 - - - - - - - - - 1 International Reserves, US$ World -1.3 -5.8 -2.7 0.7 1.0 0.6 -0.8 -0.9 0.5 1.0 0.7 -0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.9 Advanced Economies 0.1 0.6 -1.1 3.7 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.0 -0.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 -0.4 Emerging Market and Developing Economies -2.1 -9.9 -3.6 -1.1 0.4 -0.2 -1.7 -1.9 0.1 0.8 0.6 -0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -1.3 Commodity-exporting EMDE -6.9 -11.0 -2.0 -0.9 0.0 - 0.0 -1.6 0.2 0.6 0.3 -0.8 0.4 0.5 - - - Other EMDE 0.6 -9.1 -4.4 -1.2 0.7 -0.5 -2.6 -2.1 0.0 0.8 0.7 -0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -1.2 East Asia and Pacific 0.2 -11.3 -4.4 -1.8 0.3 -0.8 -2.5 -2.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -1.3 Europe and Central Asia -16.7 -6.3 -3.7 4.0 2.8 1.1 -1.6 0.6 1.9 1.4 1.6 -0.1 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 -1.1 Latin America and Caribbean 0.1 -5.3 -1.5 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.0 -0.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 1.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 Middle East and North Africa -2.7 -16.9 -3.7 -3.4 - - -0.7 -2.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 - - - - - - South Asia 11.3 11.7 1.3 1.0 2.0 3.1 0.8 -1.1 -0.2 2.3 2.0 -0.8 0.8 1.5 0.6 1.4 -0.9 Sub-Saharan Africa -9.6 -11.9 -0.1 -2.1 - - -0.7 -1.5 -1.5 1.0 0.4 -1.6 - - - - - 1 Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable. Produced by DECPG. Number 328 | December 9, 2016 Financial Markets 2015 2016 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.41 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.41 0.62 0.64 0.79 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.81 0.85 0.88 0.91 0.95 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.09 -0.19 -0.26 -0.30 -0.15 -0.18 -0.23 -0.25 -0.26 -0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.30 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.18 1.92 1.75 1.56 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.79 1.80 1.64 1.48 1.56 1.63 1.74 2.12 2.40 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.56 0.32 0.12 -0.07 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.01 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 0.03 0.22 0.37 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 426 431 478 419 372 485 507 443 421 418 418 387 367 361 357 380 374 Asia 206 232 245 264 227 197 268 282 243 224 223 233 210 190 191 192 201 196 Europe 287 348 311 339 305 282 338 359 319 308 305 303 290 282 273 274 294 287 Latin America & Caribbean 407 559 577 645 551 477 662 687 588 559 552 541 496 473 463 453 491 486 Middle East 388 471 506 555 538 508 542 580 545 539 530 545 540 492 493 487 475 457 Africa 323 449 509 626 548 461 644 661 573 546 552 546 494 448 440 441 444 436 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 417 399 399 395 399 418 375 372 395 403 403 399 414 417 418 413 413 423 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 1710 1663 1663 1638 1653 1726 1562 1547 1638 1671 1675 1653 1713 1720 1726 1697 1712 1753 United States (S&P 500) 2059 2044 2044 2051 2099 2168 1940 1932 2051 2065 2097 2099 2170 2171 2168 2139 2199 2246 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1401 1474 1474 1352 1339 1388 1381 1347 1352 1379 1399 1339 1376 1390 1388 1377 1388 1431 Japan (Nikkei 225) 16292 16292 18817 16555 15576 16450 17518 15989 16555 16407 17235 15576 16556 16887 16450 17050 18604 18855 Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 956 794 794 821 834 903 742 740 821 840 807 834 879 894 903 908 863 879 EM Asia 457 404 404 404 407 448 374 369 404 405 400 407 431 442 448 444 426 434 EM Europe 297 244 244 272 265 273 237 241 272 288 268 265 264 269 273 274 273 288 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 211 230 225 233 202 208 230 243 225 225 227 232 233 232 230 242 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1830 2121 2269 2381 1744 1804 2121 2292 2038 2269 2359 2402 2381 2608 2330 2323 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.90 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.93 Japan 105.89 121.00 121.41 115.23 107.96 102.36 118.37 114.44 112.87 109.57 108.97 105.34 104.09 101.31 101.69 103.72 108.90 113.78 Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.84 3.91 3.51 3.25 4.06 3.97 3.70 3.56 3.54 3.42 3.28 3.21 3.25 3.18 3.33 3.39 China 6.16 6.29 6.39 6.54 6.53 6.67 6.57 6.55 6.51 6.48 6.53 6.59 6.68 6.65 6.67 6.74 6.85 6.88 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.88 8.04 8.87 8.87 7.83 7.82 8.47 8.87 8.86 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.88 9.25 16.34 18.10 India 61.03 64.14 65.91 67.50 66.91 66.94 67.31 68.22 66.95 66.49 66.93 67.29 67.18 66.91 66.74 66.73 67.60 67.64 Russia 38.58 61.34 66.17 74.84 65.84 64.61 77.36 77.23 69.93 66.54 65.96 65.01 64.43 64.93 64.48 62.57 64.25 63.30 South Africa 10.85 12.77 14.22 15.83 15.01 14.07 16.30 15.79 15.39 14.62 15.36 15.05 14.40 13.79 14.01 13.92 13.96 13.49 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 102.2 114.7 118.1 120.3 117.5 118.4 121.8 120.7 118.4 116.5 117.8 118.2 118.9 117.8 118.6 119.7 122.9 124.6 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Energy 2 118 65 54 43 56 57 40 41 47 51 57 59 57 58 58 64 59 54 Non-energy 2 97 82 78 76 81 82 75 76 78 80 81 83 82 82 81 81 83 86 Agriculture 2 103 89 86 85 91 91 84 84 86 88 91 94 92 91 90 90 90 90 Metals and minerals 2 88 68 60 59 62 65 56 59 62 63 61 61 65 65 64 65 73 66 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 96 51 42 33 45 45 30 31 37 41 46 48 44 45 45 49 45 51 Gold ($/toz) 1266 1161 1107 1181 1260 1334 1098 1200 1245 1242 1261 1276 1337 1340 1327 1267 1238 1235 Baltic Dry Index 1103 711 627 363 613 736 391 307 390 608 623 608 707 675 826 870 1080 1122 Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. Produced by DECPG. Number 328 | December 9, 2016