Myanmar Brief MYANMAR COVID-19 MONITORING draws from a monthly survey of households and en- terprises undertaken by the World Bank Poverty and Equity and Macro, Trade and Covid–19 Investment Global Practices with support from Myanmar Central Statistical Or- Monitorıng №4 ganization (CSO) to provide regular updates on households’ living conditions and enterprises’ activities. It also includes a community assessment led by the Social Development Global Practice. Myanmar COVID-19 Monitoring was generously sup- ported through the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building (TFSCBIII) by the Unit- ed Kingdom’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, the Government of Korea, and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Ireland. Additional sup- port was provided by the governments of Australia, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden. 11 September 2020 EMA I L → MYA NMA R@WORLDB A NK .ORG ➚ Rapid information from household high-frequency monitoring Summary of Results from Round 2 8 – 26 JUNE 2020 Key Messages 1 Employment has improved greatly but has not yet reached the same levels as in March 2020. Not all households’ main workers who This brief presents the main worked in March are working in June: 35 percent of those who were working in March findings from the second of ceased working in May and had not resumed eight rounds of a nationally any employment in June. representative survey of 1,500 2 3 randomly selected households in all states/regions of Myan- mar. The survey was undertak- en by conducting a 20-minute phone call with respondents between 8 and 26 June 2020. Food security is an increasing concern: 18 percent of households reported at least one issue related to securing an adequate diet in the last 30 days. More than 40 percent of the poorest households are Incomes for most reducing food consumption. One out of five of the breadwinners remain lower poorest households receives food assistance from the than before March 2020. government. T he first round of survey re- Because Myanmar reported about 293 Some encouraging signs are visible in the sults reported in the Myan- cases and 6 deaths since March 2020 and labor market. Fewer households’ main mar COVID-19 Monitoring lockdown measures were partly lifted, workers (24 percent) have ceased working Platform revealed that im- data from June 2020 were collected to up- in June 2020, compared to May (54 percent). pacts on employment be- date earlier findings. The Myanmar Cen- With regard to households surveyed in May tween March and May 2020 were signifi- tral Statistical Organization (CSO) and the and June (panel households), 19 percent of cant: more than half of households’ main World Bank partnered for a second survey their main workers had stopped working workers had involuntarily ceased working, round, which reached those same respon- between March and May but have resumed while more than half of those still working dents again. One out of four of the original work in June. Those engaged in agriculture had earned lower incomes. Households respondents interviewed could not be sur- in March had been the most successful in had become less able to diversify their in- veyed and were replaced by other respon- resuming work mostly in the same sector come sources and, in some cases, strug- dents. This new survey round enables the (95 percent). Thirteen percent of house- gled to access food. Assistance from the continued monitoring of the impacts of the holds’ main workers were engaged in the government had reached about 15 percent ongoing economic crisis on employment retail sector with more than two-thirds hav- of households. trends, food security, and coping mechanisms. ing resumed work in the same sector. Myanmar Covid–19 Monitoring 11 September 2020 Brief No. 4 Work status for households in May and June 2020 (as a share of panel households working before March 2020) M ARCH 2 0 2 0 MAY 2 02 0 JUN E 2 02 0 Continued Working 43% Worked 46% Ceased Working 3% Worked Resumed Working 19% Stopped 54% Not Resumed Working 35% Despite an uplift in employment, in- in securing an adequate diet. While most come losses remain widespread. House- households maintain an ability to buy rice Changes in income in June 2020 after hold incomes have not yet returned to pre- and protein (chicken/seafood paste) even experiencing… COVID-19 levels of March 2020. A third after March 2020, 13 percent of house- of households’ main workers reports de- holds have at least one adult member who Increase in Decrease in creased incomes in June 2020 compared to ate less than usual in the last 30 days, com- income income March-May March-May the period of reference,1 a lower share than pared to 11 percent in May. Forty-two per- 2020 2020 those who reported decreased incomes in cent of panel households who had at least May. However, these findings are discour- one adult reducing their food consumption 17% 41% aging as they are indicative of continuing in May still report the same in June. Gov- LE SS LE SS income declines: for panel households, ernment intervention programs provided I N C OM E I N C OM E most main workers had already experi- food assistance,3 which has been received enced decreased income between March by 23 percent of them since March 2020. and May. In June, nearly half of the pan- el households who had experienced a de- Part of Governmental assistance has crease in income between March and May reached some of Myanmar’s poorest who 70% 2020 maintain the same income levels they typically rely more on coping strategies SAM E had in May. Across all sectors, between 50 with potentially negative long-term im- LEV E L and 68 percent of workers have seen a re- pacts. Since the beginning of the crisis, duction in their earnings between March the Government has implemented two and June 2020. Only workers employed in main initiatives to assist households: pro- “other services”, which include public ad- viding food assistance and a full subsidi- ministration, continue to prove more resil- zation of electricity costs for the first 150 ient to income declines. units consumed from April to June. One- off cash payments and increased pay- Household businesses continue to suf- ments of existing programs to women and 42% fer from reduced earnings: 40 percent the elderly had also been implemented. SAM E of household businesses2 have less or no Poorer households have been more like- LEVE L earnings in June compared to the period ly to receive government food assistance: of reference. Overall, more than 85 percent 19 percent of households in the bottom of businesses that lost earnings between quintile4 have received support, compared March and May 2020 are not faring better to 14 percent of households in the top in June, reporting the same level of earn- quintile. Government assistance, howev- ings as in May (40 percent of businesses) or er, has not been pro-poor overall. About even reduced earnings (40 percent of busi- 31 percent of households in the top quin- nesses). Household businesses in the retail tile report receiving free electricity since trade sector have faced a particularly dire March 2020, compared to only 17 percent situation: eight out of ten have generated of households in the bottom quintile, re- less or no earnings between March and flecting access and consumption patterns May 2020 and have displayed no sign of re- where the poor are disadvantaged. Over- covery between May and June. The same all, a larger share of households in the is true for personal service businesses and bottom quintile is coping with COVID-19 agricultural businesses but these signs of shocks by reducing food consumption, 17% recovery overall affect a smaller propor- using savings, or borrowing from family M OR E tion of businesses. and friends. The adoption of these coping 12% I N C OM E mechanisms risks affecting investments M OR E In this context, food security remains a in nutrition, education and other areas I N C OM E concern with households reducing their with implications for human capital de- food consumption to cope with income velopment in the long run. losses and/or otherwise facing difficulties 1 Unless specified otherwise, for households inter- 2 As per our definition, household businesses exclude 4 Welfare quintiles are measured using a consumption viewed in May and June (panel households), the pe- farming households (cultivating plots, growing crops, aggregate predicted using multiple imputations and riod of reference for comparison is May; for house- raising livestock, or practicing aquaculture). stepwise regressions and dividing the whole consump- holds who started the survey in June (replacement tion distribution with imputations into five continuous households), the period of reference for comparison 3 Note that the survey design did not distinguish the intervals. is March. This enables better capturing of economic different food assistance programs that were imple- changes related to COVID-19. mented by the Myanmar Government.