51692 Commodity Markets Review November 11, 2009 DECPG, The World Bank Non-energy commodity prices in U.S. dollars Agriculture prices rose 3.2 percent in rose by 2.6 percent in October with all main October, with the largest increases in grains due groups posting relatively strong gains. The to late harvests in the U.S. following late spring increases were partly due to decline of the plantings, and aggravated by wet fall weather. dollar, which fell 1.7 percent against the euro. Sorghum and maize prices were up 11-12 Crude oil prices surged 8.4 percent in percent, as only 37 percent of the U.S. corn crop October to $74.1/bbl, and approached $80/bbl was harvested as of November 8th, versus 69 in early November on slowly improving percent a year earlier. Soybean prices jumped 12 fundamentals and expectations of markets percent on drought-related supply problems in tightening next year. U.S. crude oil inventories South America. Rubber prices climbed 8 percent remain high but they have been falling on supply constraints in Thailand (heavy rains) seasonally since April. Petroleum product and Indonesia (earthquake). Cocoa prices rose 7 stocks, on the other hand remain extremely high, percent from poor production prospects in Côte particularly middle distillate, and should result d'Ivoire, while cotton prices rose 4 percent on in relatively weak heating oil prices this winter. weather-related problems, especially in the U.S. Oil demand remains weak in the OECD, Metals and minerals prices rose 1.7 percent although y/y declines have moderated. Demand in October with increases in all base metals has been quite robust in Asia, and to a lesser although most were relatively small. Metals degree in the Middle East. China's oil demand prices have been range-bound since summer as grew by more than 9 percent y/y in the third China's restocking slows, and the anticipated quarter following an 8 percent jump in 2Q09. restocking in industrial economies has yet to Natural gas prices (U.S.) soared 35.8 materialize. Zinc prices rose 10 percent due to percent in October--albeit from relatively low falling stocks and rising Chinese import demand. levels--due to cooler temperatures that boosted Nickel prices increased 6 percent, despite rising demand, as well as higher oil prices and LME stocks, supported by strikes in Canada. continued injections into storage. Prices in Gold and silver prices each rose 5 percent as November have slid nearly 25 percent from the investors seek a hedge against inflation and the October peak as mild temperatures returned, and dollar. Gold prices surged above $1,100/toz in inventories are at record highs. European natural early November following the The Reserve gas prices rose 6.6 percent in October mainly Bank of India's purchase of 200 tonnes of gold due to higher oil prices. from the IMF on November 2nd. Major Price Indices Agriculture Prices - Sub-Indices Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) Indices of Nominal US$ Prices (2000=100) 500 300 450 275 400 250 Energy Beverages 350 225 300 Metals and 200 Minerals Food 250 175 200 150 Raw Materials Agriculture 150 125 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Prepared in the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) by Shane Streifel, John Baffes and Betty Dow. Sarah Crow is task assistant. This report is available on http://decpg.worldbank.org. 1 Major Movers October1 production shortfalls in Brazil and Colombia, Natural gas (U.S.) prices soared 35.8 percent causing a deficit of 2.3 million bags in the due to weather-related demand growth, higher arabica market. oil prices, and continued injections into storage. Tea prices declined 4.1 percent from the onset Sorghum and maize prices jumped 12.1 percent of seasonal rain in Kenya, as well as heavy rain and 11.3 percent, respectively, because of in Sri Lanka that has improved its crop level. delayed harvests in the U.S. DAP prices dropped 5.3 percent because of Soybeans and soybean oil prices climbed 11.7 weak demand, although Chinese demand re- percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, due to emerged at month's end. weather-related supply disruptions in South Rice prices fell 5.5 percent on expectations that America, especially dry weather conditions in the Thai government may release 6-7 million Argentina and Brazil. tons of stocks accumulated under its domestic Zinc prices gained 10.0 percent from falling purchase program. inventories and rising import demand of refined Percent Changes in Price, Nominal US $ zinc into China. -50 -25 0 25 50 75 TSP prices increased 9.6 percent due to rising Natural gas, US demand from south Asia. Sorghum Crude oil prices rose 8.4 percent on declining Soybeans Maize stocks and robust demand in Asia--although Zinc demand elsewhere remains weak. TSP -74.5 Rubber prices increased 8.3 percent because of Crude oil, average spot heavy rains in Thailand, the earthquake in Rubber, Singapore Cocoa Indonesian at end-September, and the effects of Natural gas, Europe -52.3 higher crude oil prices. Soybean oil Cocoa prices rose 7.2 percent, flirting with a 30- Nickel year high, as the Côte d'Ivoire's current crop is Coal, Australia Silver only slightly higher than last season's Gold disappointing output. Cotton, A Index Natural gas (Europe) prices rose 6.6 percent Wheat, US, HRW Coffee, arabica due to higher oil prices, as contracted import gas Palmkernel oil is indexed to petroleum prices with a lag. Sawnwood Malaysia Oct '09/Sep '09 Nickel prices rose 6.0 percent, despite rising LNG Oct'09/Oct '08 inventories and falling stainless steel production, Aluminum Potassium chloride supported by ongoing strikes in Canada. Urea, bulk Coal prices rose 5.1 percent on low stocks and Groundnut oil strong demand from China's power sector. Lead Copper Silver prices increased 4.7 percent, in tandem Tin with gold, as a hedge against inflation. Palm oil Gold prices rose 4.7 percent due to strong Coconut oil investment demand, the falling dollar, and Phosphate rock -78.3 Coffee, robusta concerns about inflation. Logs, Malaysia Cotton prices rose 4.3 percent on various Sugar, world 90.3 weather-related problems, especially in the US. Beef Soybean meal Wheat prices increased 4.2 percent as a result of Tea, avg 3 auctions a low seasonal harvest in the U.S., while the DAP -69.1 Ukraine's wheat output was very poor. Rice, Thai, 5% Coffee arabica prices rose 4.1 percent due to 1 Percent change of average October 2009 prices compared to average September 2009 prices in nominal U.S. dollars (graph also includes 12-month changes in grey). 2 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages M onthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Oct Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Aug Sep Oct Commodity Unit 2007 2008 2009 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Energy Coal, Australia a/ $/mt 65.73 1 0 27.1 70.02 162.80 92.97 71 .93 66.48 71.31 72.50 67.64 71 .07 Crude oil, avg, spot a/ $/bbl 71 2 .1 96.99 58.86 1 1 5.68 56.00 44.11 59.19 68.21 71.63 68.35 74.08 Crude oil, Brent a/ $/bbl 72.70 97.64 59.06 1 1 5.60 55.89 44.98 59.13 68.37 72.50 67.69 73.1 9 Crude oil, Dubai a/ $/bbl 68.37 93.78 58.79 1 1 3.47 53.67 44.56 58.93 68.07 71.32 67.91 73.28 Crude oil, West Texas Int. a/ $/bbl 72.28 99.56 58.74 1 1 7.98 58.45 42.80 59.52 68.21 71.06 69.44 75.77 Natural gas Index a/ 2000=100 186.5 267.9 153.5 284.1 266.2 198.2 142.9 123.2 123.0 123.7 41 1 .8 Natural gas, Europe a/ $/mmbtu 8.56 13.41 8.87 14.62 15.75 1 1 .94 8.18 6.91 6.92 7.13 7.60 Natural gas, US a/ $/mmbtu 6.98 8.86 3.83 9.03 6.40 4.57 3.70 3.17 3.15 2.96 4.02 Natural gas LNG, Japan a/ $/mmbtu 7.68 12.53 8.74 13.33 14.62 10.90 7.60 7.84 7.76 8.20 8.40 Non Energy Commodities Agriculture Beverages Cocoa b/ c/kg 195.2 257.7 277.8 282.6 224.1 259.7 258.7 295.5 295.7 313.3 336.0 Coffee, Arabica b/ c/kg 272.4 308.2 312.1 321.2 267.8 283.9 320.2 322.7 330.2 327.5 340.8 Coffee, robusta b/ c/kg 190.9 232.1 166.6 244.8 192.6 175.8 165.3 160.1 159.5 162.7 162.1 Tea, auctions (3), average b/ c/kg 203.6 242.0 266.6 272.3 206.6 218.0 266.1 303.6 299.2 315.7 302.6 Tea, Colombo auctions b/ c/kg 252.2 278.9 310.4 303.2 208.8 261.7 299.1 356.1 345.8 376.4 353.4 Tea, Kolkata auctions b/ c/kg 192.1 225.5 245.8 260.9 220.2 177.4 271.3 273.0 270.5 274.2 293.1 Tea, Mombasa auctions b/ c/kg 166.5 221.8 243.5 252.8 190.8 214.9 228.0 281 .7 281.4 296.5 261 .3 Food Fats and Oils Coconut oil b/ $/mt 919 1,224 721 1,246 772 677 779 711 747 701 704 Copra $/mt 607 816 475 81 7 520 447 513 469 492 466 469 Groundnut oil b/ $/mt 1,352 2,1 31 1 89 ,1 2,41 7 1,773 1,283 ,1 1 66 ,1 1 33 1 31 ,1 ,1 1 20 ,1 1 44 Palm oil b/ $/mt 780 949 668 928 512 577 743 679 723 674 679 Palmkernel oil $/mt 888 ,1 1 30 685 11 ,1 4 609 577 763 700 729 704 728 Soybean meal b/ $/mt 308 424 407 450 320 365 424 431 438 425 413 Soybean oil b/ $/mt 881 1,258 832 1,353 830 755 863 856 886 846 901 Soybeans b/ $/mt 384 523 441 566 377 394 461 454 470 430 481 Grains Barley b/ $/mt 172.4 200.5 123.4 216.6 129.5 1 6.3 1 129.5 122.0 122.2 103.5 130.7 Maize b/ $/mt 163.7 223.1 165.0 244.7 168.4 166.9 176.0 51 1 .3 152.0 150.4 167.3 Rice, Thailand, 5% b/ $/mt 326.4 650.2 552.3 703.0 564.4 586.3 552.4 539.0 526.3 51 8.8 490.3 Rice, Thailand, 25% $/mt 306.5 n.a. 451 .9 669.5 449.9 469.4 458.7 441 .4 432.8 428.0 410.3 Rice, Thailand, 35% $/mt 300.1 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. * Rice,Thai, A1.Special / Super $/mt 272.3 482.3 317.4 478.6 314.1 323.4 326.3 309.7 305.5 303.3 295.8 Sorghum $/mt 162.7 207.8 148.0 214.7 51 1 .0 145.3 155.8 139.3 142.4 41 1 .8 159.0 Wheat, Canada $/mt 300.4 454.6 303.0 390.2 322.1 321 .9 325.6 271 .2 266.0 259.3 274.1 Wheat, US, HRW b/ $/mt 255.2 326.0 227.1 317.7 228.1 231 .6 250.5 208.6 210.1 190.8 198.8 Wheat US SRW $/mt 238.6 271 .5 182.0 241 .5 182.7 187.4 195.6 165.2 1 .7 61 158.4 175.6 Other Food Bananas EU $/mt 1,037 1 88 ,1 ,1 1 72 ,1 1 23 944 1 42 ,1 1,288 ,1 8 11 1,076 ,1 1 30 1,080 Bananas US b/ $/mt 676 844 854 775 847 891 858 826 834 818 810 Fishmeal $/mt ,1 1 77 ,1 1 33 1 60 ,1 ,1 1 98 1,023 1 3 ,01 1,097 1,276 1,272 1,348 1,443 Meat, beef b/ c/kg 260.3 31 3.8 260.8 372.4 268.0 245.2 262.8 273.2 273.4 272.7 264.8 Meat, chicken b/ c/kg 156.7 169.6 173.1 177.1 174.7 173.5 174.1 173.9 173.9 170.1 166.1 Meat, sheep c/kg 41 2.0 458.5 422.7 477.3 41 0.0 378.5 428.7 453.3 456.0 450.1 445.8 Oranges b/ $/mt 957 ,1 1 07 875 ,1 1 63 842 799 870 861 836 1,031 ,1 1 63 Shrimp, Mexico b/ c/kg ,01 1 0 1,069 972 1,048 ,01 1 4 976 970 970 970 970 970 Sugar EU domestic b/ c/kg 68.09 69.69 53.71 74.70 51 .97 51 .44 53.76 55.43 56.34 54.30 55.25 Sugar US domestic b/ c/kg 45.77 46.86 51 .48 51 .52 44.72 43.82 47.89 57.31 57.46 63.74 67.78 Sugar, world b/ c/kg 22.22 28.21 37.91 .1 31 4 26.28 28.85 33.89 46.98 49.47 50.84 49.91 Raw M aterials Timber Logs, Cameroon $/cum 381.3 526.9 415.4 548.5 473.8 426.8 394.8 414.9 413.8 422.3 444.5 Logs, Malaysia b/ $/cum 268.0 292.3 291.0 277.7 315.7 313.6 284.5 279.6 276.6 280.8 276.6 Plywood c/sheets 640.7 645.5 566.0 648.6 645.5 572.8 565.8 561.5 562.0 560.7 559.3 Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum 760 958 736 974 771 689 721 779 786 776 790 Sawnwood, Malaysia b/ $/cum 806.3 889.1 804.9 900.3 859.9 813.7 829.7 771.4 769.7 784.3 805.1 Woodpulp $/mt 767.0 820.2 590.8 848.8 71 .0 1 565.1 550.0 627.7 629.2 657.6 680.0 Other Raw M aterials Cotton A Index b/ c/kg 139.5 157.4 133.3 168.2 126.9 120.8 132.4 41 1 .9 1 .6 41 41 1 .2 147.3 Cotton Memphis c/kg 142.9 61 1 .3 137.7 170.0 129.4 122.4 137.5 148.8 152.5 153.9 51 1 .4 Rubber, US c/kg 248.0 284.1 198.6 329.1 202.8 165.8 187.0 221.0 223.1 248.7 264.8 Rubber, Singapore b/ c/kg 226.3 258.6 177.1 298.4 159.0 146.0 166.4 199.3 205.9 21 7.2 235.2 continued on next page a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=100) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 3 COMMODITY PRICE DATA Annual averages Quarterly averages M onthly averages Jan-Dec Jan-Dec Jan-Oct Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Aug Sep Oct 2007 2008 2009 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Fertilizers DAP b/ $/mt 433 967 323 ,1 1 54 663 362 304 310 319 317 300 Phosphate rock b/ $/mt 70.9 345.6 128.0 409.2 371.3 193.3 1 1 3.3 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 Potassium chloride b/ $/mt 200.2 570.1 673.1 635.0 766.7 865.2 726.7 505.6 432.5 428.9 438.9 TSP b/ $/mt 339 879 263 1 08 ,1 659 322 248 225 225 225 247 Urea, E. Europe, bulk b/ $/mt 309.4 492.7 248.9 745.4 292.2 267.3 241 .1 241.6 247.1 233.9 239.0 M etals and M inerals Aluminum b/ $/mt 2,638 2,573 1,585 2,787 1,821 1,360 1,485 ,81 1 2 1,934 1,834 1,879 Copper b/ $/mt 1 7,1 8 6,956 4,81 4 7,680 3,905 3,428 4,663 5,859 6,165 6,196 6,288 Gold $/toz 696.7 871 .7 941 .4 869.6 794.5 908.7 921 .5 960.1 949.4 996.6 1043.2 Iron ore b/ c/dmtu 84.7 140.6 1 .0 01 140.6 140.6 1 .0 01 01 1 .0 01 1 .0 1 .0 01 01 1 .0 01 1 .0 Lead b/ c/kg 258.0 209.1 159.9 91 1 .2 124.5 1 5.7 1 149.9 192.8 190.0 220.5 224.1 Nickel b/ $/mt 37,230 ,1 1 21 1 1 80 4,1 18,961 1 0,843 10,471 1 2,920 17,700 19,642 17,473 18,525 Silver c/toz 1,341 1,500 1,408 1,495 1,020 1,265 1,376 1,477 1,443 1,648 1,726 c/ 2000=1 * * Steel products index, Japan Reinstated 00 182.0 289.3 231 .3 338.2 31 0.4 274.5 21 5.5 21 0.8 21 0.3 21 0.8 21 0.4 c/ $/mt Steel cr coilsheet, Japan, Reinstated 650.0 965.6 800.0 1 1 00.0 1 00.0 1 1033.3 700.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 c/ $/mt Steel hr coilsheet, Japan, Reinstated 550.0 883.3 700.0 1000.0 1000.0 933.3 600.0 600.0 600.0 600.0 600.0 Steel, rebar, Japan, Reinstated c/ $/mt 521 .5 760.2 484.8 934.2 629.6 472.5 450.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 580.0 c/ Steel wire rod, Japan, Reinstated $/mt 533.3 1009.8 1004.0 1 1 35.0 1200.0 1200.0 1006.7 856.7 850.0 850.0 850.0 Tin b/ c/kg 1,454 1,851 1,324 2,051 ,31 1 0 1 03 ,1 1,351 1,459 1,487 1,487 1,501 Zinc b/ c/kg 324.2 187.5 152.9 177.0 1 1 8.5 1 7.2 1 147.3 176.1 182.2 188.4 207.2 NEW World Bank commodity price indices for low and middle income countries( 2000 =100) Energy 244.8 342.0 205.4 406.0 21 2.9 166.3 204.5 230.9 241.8 231.1 248.9 Non Energy Commodities 224.7 272.0 208.2 292.6 206.3 189.9 207.8 21 9.7 224.8 223.5 229.4 Agriculture 180.3 229.5 194.4 243.5 178.6 1 .9 81 197.2 199.4 202.6 201.8 208.2 Beverages 169.9 21 0.0 214.1 226.8 1 .2 81 198.0 207.7 226.1 227.1 235.6 246.0 Food 184.7 247.4 203.1 260.5 185.7 190.4 209.8 206.4 210.6 205.4 210.5 Fats and Oils 209.0 277.3 21 4.4 288.9 182.4 1 .4 91 227.9 220.9 229.5 216.4 223.2 Grains 189.0 281 .7 21 4.7 298.5 21 8.6 221 .3 225.3 202.2 201.0 194.0 200.6 Other Food 149.0 177.1 177.6 188.9 160.2 1 .3 61 172.1 91 1 .2 194.4 201.4 202.6 Raw Materials 174.9 195.7 163.2 21 0.4 160.0 153.1 61 1 .1 168.8 170.8 175.7 183.5 Timber 136.8 150.5 139.3 150.2 149.4 143.1 41 1 .8 133.6 133.0 135.4 137.6 Other Raw Materials 21 6.6 245.3 189.4 276.3 71 1 .6 164.0 182.2 207.4 212.0 219.9 233.6 Fertilizers 240.1 566.7 303.1 741 .1 492.2 376.6 300.6 251 .9 242.2 236.2 243.3 Metals and Minerals 31 4.0 325.7 225.6 342.4 230.6 185.0 21 9.0 257.6 268.3 266.6 271.2 a/ Included in the energy index (2000=100) b/ Included in the non-energy index (2000=100) c/ Steel not included in the non-energy index $ = US dollar ¢ = US cent bbl = barrel cum = cubic meter dmtu = Dry Metric Ton Unit kg = kilogram mmbtu = million British thermal units mt = metric ton toz = troy oz n.a. = not available n.q. = no quotation 4 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2004-2009 5 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2004-2009 cont'd 6 Selected Commodity Prices, Nominal US dollars, 2004-2009 cont'd 7