Pakistan Policy Note—Managing Natural Disasters 79579 Pakistan Policy Note 12 Haris Khan and Marc Forni 1 Managing Natural Disasters J une 2 0 1 3 Pakistan is prone to geological and hydrometeorologi- natural hazard. The natural hazard element is cal hazard events—earthquakes, floods, droughts, difficult to change, but well-planned and timely cyclones. Combined with rapid population growth, investment in preparedness and mitigation can urbanization, environmental degradation, and a high reduce vulnerability and build resilience. concentration of people and assets in exposed areas, this hazard profile has raised population and infrastructure The purpose of engaging in disaster risk management vulnerability, especially in urban areas. Losses from (DRM) activities is to reduce the vulnerability of cur- disasters have increased over the past 40 years, a trend rent and future assets exposed to natural hazards. that can be changed only through targeted interven- Once vulnerability is carefully assessed, struc- tions that boost resilience. Fortunately, the country is tural and nonstructural mitigation activities well endowed with capacity in government, academia, can be launched. Structural measures include the private sector, and nongovernmental institutions. retrofitting buildings and constructing protec- Greater resilience can be achieved through a holis- tive infrastructure. Nonstructural measures tic approach to disaster risk management: strength- include land-use policies to manage construc- ening capacity and clarifying responsibilities of tion in vulnerable environments, contingency institutions engaged in disaster risk management at and response planning, and fiscal protection all levels of government; improving understanding of mechanisms. disaster risk among policy makers and disaster risk management practitioners, including the physical, Pakistan is highly susceptible to natural hazards, with THE WORLD BANK GROUP SOUTH ASIA REGION human, and financial elements; investing in struc- its location on a seismically active geological plate, a tural and nonstructural risk reduction measures; coastline frequented by cyclone events, and an active developing robust financial tools to reduce the fis- floodplain fed by snowmelt from the Himalayas, Kara- cal impact of disasters on the state; and increasing koram, and Hindukush mountains. Additionally, 60 awareness of and coping mechanisms for disaster risk percent of the landmass is classified as semi-arid among vulnerable populations. and prone to drought. This hazard profile inter- sects with a growing population, rapid urban- Disasters result from the intersection of three key ele- ization, and sociopolitical factors contributing ments. First are natural hazards, such as earth- to increased vulnerability. The result is that the quakes, cyclones, excess rainfall, floods, and country has, and will continue to have, frequent tsunamis. Second is exposure of people, prop- large disasters that halt or reverse development. erty, livelihoods, and infrastructure (also known as human and physical capital) to these Pakistan’s disaster record for the last 40 years shows hazards. And third is vulnerability of the exposed severe impacts on citizens and the state. Major elements, which is created by physical, social, eco- events include: nomic, and environmental factors that increase • Floods in 2010 and 2011 that caused damage a community’s susceptibility to the impacts of a amounting to $10  billion (ADB and World Pakistan Policy Note—Managing Natural Disasters Bank 2010) and $3.7 billion (ADB and World to institutionalize and mainstream DRM activi- Bank 2011), respectively. Other significant ties, but much work remains. The PDMAs have floods were recorded in 1950, 1992, and 1998. only recently started receiving support through • An earthquake in 2005 resulting in 73,000 the government budget and international donor fatalities and $5 billion in losses (Naeem community. Continued support is required to and others 2005). Other damaging seismic enhance the capacity of the Provincial Emer- events took place in 1974 and 1990. gency Operations Centers, to prepare standard • Droughts in 2000 and 2002 that severely operating procedures for response, and to insti- 2 affected livelihoods and forced thousands to tute policies to mainstream DRM. At the district migrate. Drought is prevalent two or three level, DDMAs are functioning as ad hoc inter- years every decade. departmental committees, activated only in • Cyclone Yemyin in 2007 that caused times of disaster and without dedicated staffing $537 million in damage (IFRC 2007)—one or budgets.3 The country’s major urban centers of 14  cyclones to have reached Pakistan’s also lack an effective, dedicated DRM structure. coastal zones in the past 40 years (ADB and World Bank 2007). Lack of coordination and clarity of roles in DRM The Calamity Act of 1958 historically governed gov- ernment actions in DRM, but a series of disaster The roles and relationships among federal and pro- events highlighted the need for a holistic DRM frame- vincial entities—including the Floods Commission, work, which was established in 2007 (NDMA 2007). Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Under this (and subsequent laws), the National Authority, National Disaster Management Authority, Disaster Management Authority and the and PDMAs—lack clarity. These bodies do not National Disaster Management Commission agree on which of them are ultimately respon- were created at the federal level, and Provincial sible for understanding disaster risk, which are Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs) responsible for integrating DRM into develop- and District Disaster Management Authorities ment planning, and which are responsible for (DDMAs) were created subnationally. leading preparedness and response activities. The government has also drafted a national Climate Especially problematic is the devolution of responsibil- Change Action Plan.1 Key impacts of climate ities from the National Disaster Management Author- change highlighted in the plan include glacial ity to the affected PDMA during a disaster. Global melt, which is causing the Indus river system experience has proven that such an approach to swell above historical averages, and rainfall is inefficient due to a lack of national leader- events, which have been especially intense and ship and a lack of contribution from agencies irregular. The abnormal rainfall in 2011 over not affected. Further, as nascent institutions, parts of Sindh Province, including the Thar the PDMAs lack the capacity and capability Desert, was attributed by the Pakistan Meteo- to implement adequate DRM practices.4 The rological Department to cloudburst, 2 char- PDMAs might exist on paper, but are severely acteristic of erratic rainfall patterns. These challenged by even medium-size events. impacts highlight the need for further research and investment in mitigation and adaptation Limited understanding of disaster risk interventions. (physical, economic, and fiscal) Policy Issues and Challenges Policy makers and DRM practitioners lack the abil- ity to define the occurrence and impacts of disaster Weak institutional capacity for DRM events, including floods, droughts, and earthquakes. A comprehensive multihazard risk assess- Lack of preparedness, poorly executed emergency ment tied to risk mitigation efforts has yet to responses, and weak institutional systems to manage be undertaken for Pakistan—a wide variety of disasters have undermined government credibility actors has followed only a piecemeal approach, among its citizens. Pakistan has, though, begun generating assessments with varying standards, implementation arrangements, and outcomes, responsibilities. These institutions are very weak, as well as limited scope and geographic span.5 particularly for their wide-ranging mandates. Each PDMA needs better equipment for its The costs and benefits of risk reduction—financial and Emergency Operations Center, a management nonfinancial—thus cannot be qualified or quantified. information system, and stronger technical This information would provide an evidence capacity. base on which to prioritize mitigation decisions, as well as data on how much of the country’s Create city emergency operations centers in major budget should be appropriated. The govern- urban centers and link them to the current disaster 3 ment bears much of the costs related to disasters, management structure. With the exception of including explicit and implicit obligations, but Rescue 1122 in Lahore, the capacity of munici- the total fiscal impact is not well understood. pal governments is quite limited due to lack of Risk transfer mechanisms are used in other communication systems, equipment, and tech- developing and industrialized countries6 to pro- nical capacity. Putting fully functioning emer- vide a measure of protection for the state. Paki- gency operations centers in place will improve stan’s government has endorsed developing such the ability to respond to disaster events. mechanisms, particularly risk insurance and risk financing for catastrophes, though it has no Improve coordination and clarity of roles roadmap, policy, or underpinning evidence to make an informed choice on them. Review the roles and responsibilities of entities in a postdisaster environment. This should be com- Weak integration of DRM in government pleted at each level of government to remove planning and development overlaps and avoid confusion in times of disaster. The government’s focus needs to shift from response to preparedness and risk reduction. This is partly Analyze the roles of governments, nongovernmen- because the costs of predisaster investments tal organizations, and private companies engaged and mitigation measures are significantly less in DRM. This can be accomplished through than the postdisaster costs of rebuilding. But local and regional workshops heightening these investments are not currently prioritized stakeholder awareness of the threat of natu- due to the difficulty in quantifying the benefits ral disasters, as well as educational and train- of such interventions. These benefits include ing activities that increase the understanding the lives saved and damage averted, as well as of DRM among policy makers and DRM the livelihoods protected, the infrastructure practitioners. left intact, and the services delivered in the aftermath of an event. Ensure that local governments, community-based organizations, and nongovernmental organizations Poor communication of risk information use the same interactive tools and information to and awareness building highlight disaster risks, thus enabling communities to improve their resilience. In addition, work toward A wide range of actors in DRM convey messages on a systematic and standardized approach to disaster risk. Lack of a single, coordinated mes- community-based DRM led by provincial and sage has led to confusion and misinformation district authorities, and closely link govern- over the risks faced and the measures to be taken mental activities and investments to those at to increase resilience and response capacity. the community level. Policy Recommendations Enhance understanding of disaster risk (physical, economic, and fiscal) Increase institutional DRM capacity Undertake a national rapid risk assessment using Continue to support the PDMAs and DDMAs to existing data and tools. This preliminary infor- ensure that they can fulfill their mandated roles and mation will enable the government to begin Pakistan Policy Note—Managing Natural Disasters considering policies and procedures for reduc- Engage in mitigation interventions informed by ing disaster risk. More comprehensive risk the National Working Group for Risk Assessments. assessments should follow once adequate data Invest in structural and nonstructural mea- are gathered and stakeholders are incorporated. sures to reduce the impacts of future hazard events. Examples include structural measures Ensure that systematic methods are in place for col- (flood control, building reinforcement) and lecting disaster risk information in the future. His- nonstructural measures (land-use policies, torical disaster-loss data can then be populated early-warning systems). 4 into this database, which will ensure that finan- cial, policy, and disaster management authori- Reduce future physical risk to disasters ties can quantify Pakistan’s risk. Ensure physical resilience of new infrastructure. This Lead the risk assessment process. Pakistan is for- is one of the most important risk mitigation tunate to have very high scientific capacity steps the government can take to prevent “lock- to assess natural hazard risks, but it is spread ing in� future vulnerability. It is impractical to across government, academia, and the private move people from their homes and livelihoods, sector. Harnessing it to produce risk assess- but it is possible to start planning processes that ments within and for the country will not only ensure resilient construction in high-risk areas. help ensure sustainable skills and knowledge but also greatly raise the chances of this infor- Increase compliance with building codes through mation being used by decision makers.7 improved supervision of new construction. The pub- lic sector can provide economic incentives to Ensure that decision makers from multiple sectors owners of existing structures to retrofit their are engaged in risk assessments. Risk assessments buildings for the benefit of tenants and the need to be undertaken by scientists, spatial public at large. analysts, and engineers, but this requires a col- laborative approach between technical experts Increase fiscal resilience to disasters and decision makers to ensure that the infor- mation generated is fit for its purpose and pro- Understand the disaster-related annual expected loss vides answers to the questions posed, such as and probable maximum loss to the government bud- “How many hospitals may be affected by a 1 in get. These should be understood at the munici- 100-year flood event in Punjab?� pal, provincial, and federal levels. The analysis requires research on the fiscal impact of medium- Undertake national, provincial, and city risk assess- size and large events of the past 15 years. ments. These assessments should be aimed at planning for contingencies and responses, Improve the National Disaster Management Fund. identifying and prioritizing risk mitigation This needs to be greatly strengthened through interventions, ensuring that future develop- standard operating procedures to administer ment is disaster resilient, and guaranteeing and execute funds efficiently in times of disas- adequate financial protection. ter. Such a mechanism, replenished annually, is the most economically efficient source of ex Integrate DRM in planning and development ante risk financing and can be used for small to large events. Reduce current physical risk of disasters Develop a comprehensive risk financing strategy with Undertake cost-benefit analyses of mitigation measures a range of financial instruments. Cost, size, and informed by robust assessments. Data from probabi- timeliness should be the three guiding prin- listic risk assessments can be coupled with infor- ciples for the instruments. Risks should be dis- mation on the expenditures required to reduce tributed among a variety of capital bases that, risk and on the net social and economic ben- in aggregate, can adequately withstand the efits at the local, provincial, and national levels. costs of natural disasters (Figure 1). Figure Combining financial instruments to address various layers of risk 1 High severity International donor assistance Insurance-linked securities Risk transfer Insurance and reinsurance Contingent credit 5 Risk retention Reserves Low severity Low frequency High frequency Source: Ghesquiere and Mahul 2010. Increase communication of risk 4. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas information and build awareness Disaster Management Authority has only three staff members, responsible for DRM Once identified, communicate disaster risks such and issues related to displaced peoples, that both individuals and the government are moti- who respond to complex emergencies in vated to increase their resilience. Community-based the province. The Provincial Emergency DRM can help communities understand disas- Operations Centers across all provinces ter risk and carry out small, physical resiliency need strengthening. All PDMAs lack inte- measures. An informed community may decide grated Geographic Information System– against building residential structures in vul- based Management Information Systems nerable areas and instead use the land for and incidence response systems with links agriculture. to other departments. 5. Donors have made risk assessments (often Incorporate credible and robust hazard and risk infor- with external consultants) in the Northern mation into community-based early-warning systems Areas of Pakistan, Muzaffarabad, Man- that advise communities of incoming threats. Such sehra, and Murree, using a range of tech- information can also be used by the govern- niques and implementation methods. ment to enhance its institutional preparedness, 6. In the industrialized world, risk trans- emergency communications, and contingency fer mechanisms, such as insurance, cover planning. around 30 percent of economic losses. 7. Government decision makers are more Notes likely to trust information produced by 1. The Climate Change Action Plan 2012– locals within the country than that pro- 2030 is being finalized by the Ministry of duced in a “black box� environment with Climate Change. external consultants. 2. 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Islamabad. http://ndma.gov.pk/ MDRPK001OU18.pdf Docs/NDRMFP.doc. © 2013 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 USA All rights reserved This report was prepared by the staff of the South Asia Region. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The report was designed, edited, and typeset by Communications Development Incorporated, Washington, DC.