33007 No. 16 / February 2004 COLOMBIA: THE ROLE OF LAND IN INVOLUNTARY DISPLACEMENT Internal displacement in Colombia has become more prevalent and serious. Expulsion of land users to gain territorial control is increasingly a tactical element in the conflict. High land inequality makes it easier to uproot populations. Providing assistance to displaced populations does not reduce their propensity to return. Together with other measures, a land policy that increases tenure security for those at risk of displacement and improves access to land, can not only help to reduce the incidence of displacement but also make it easier for the displaced to cope. Public spending, especially on education, is also critical. Land Inequality in Colombia and, because of lack of opportunities, may drive the poor Land distribution in Colombia is highly unequal.1 The to support armed movements. The report used adverse effects of high inequality--in terms of incomes, municipality-based data to test these hypothesis in terms assets, voice and opportunities--have long been of land use, local public spending and violence. It found, recognized in Latin America.2 There is, however, some first, a clear association between high land inequality and discussion of whether traditional measures of land underutilization of land. Second, high inequality at the inequality in Colombia may overestimate the extent of municipality level is also associated with lower public inequality because they fail to adjust for differences in investment, implying lower provision of public goods land quality across farms. Because large farms normally such as education, health, infrastructure and other own land of lower quality, measures of land inequality services. Third, municipalities with more unequal land that are based on unadjusted area may seriously overstate distribution are also characterized by higher levels of land inequality. To address this issue, the study accessed conflict-related violence in its many manifestations data for about 2.8 million rural parcels. After a number of (kidnappings, massacres and guerrilla action). adjustments to the data (e.g., removing non-agricultural, state-owned and indigenous reserve properties), Gini Characteristics of Displaced Populations coefficients were computed for this set of properties based Colombia ranks alongside Sudan, Angola and the on raw data and official land valuation estimates. The Democratic Republic of Congo as one of the countries results show little difference between the estimates based with the highest number of internally displaced people. on land area and those based on land value--0.85 Estimates put the amount of land abandoned by internally compared to 0.82, respectively. By any measure, land displaced populations at about 4 million hectares over the inequality in Colombia is very high. last five years--almost three times more than was redistributed through government land reform programs Such high inequality has a negative impact on the rural since 1961. Displacement has, in effect, set in motion an economy, including foregone growth, poor natural agrarian counter-reform of massive proportions, and is resource management (overuse of livestock grazing and likely contributing to significant and unproductive land underutilization of cropland), and lack of agricultural concentration in some areas. Because the abandoned land diversification. These factors appear to have contributed is unlikely to be effectively utilized, this significantly to the fact that recent growth in Colombia has not been reduces productivity. At the individual level, users or pro-poor. It is also hypothesized that high inequality is owners of land are particularly likely to become displaced. associated with lower public investment, may make it Because their agricultural skills tend to be of limited use more difficult to establish representative local institutions in the urban or peri-urban areas to which they displace, their welfare is likely more severely affected than other 1The analysis in this note is based on a recent World Bank study, displaced groups. Colombia: Land Policy in Transition (2004). 2In fact, a 1950 Bank mission identified unequal land distribution as a key impediment to economic and social development in Colombia. Sample data for the periods 1999-00 and 2001-02 Only about 11% of the displaced in the sample want to suggests an increase in the number of displaced. return. Not surprisingly, a higher share of those that want Assistance to displaced populations--through the to return are still located within the same department or government, church and NGOs--now covers more than municipality. While the share of female-headed two-thirds of the sampled households, compared to less households among those who want to return is much than half in the earlier period. Displacement also appears lower that among those who do not (29% compared to to have become more reactive and more concentrated 39%), the propensity to return is higher among those who among vulnerable segments of the population. participated in organizations before being displaced, and among those who had at least one child drop out of There is increasing recognition of the intimate connection school. between land issues and involuntary displacement in Colombia. An important reason is that because territorial The notion that land ownership increases the likelihood of control is a key element in the war strategies of guerrillas displacement is supported by the fact that about 60% of and paramilitaries, expulsion of land users becomes a displaced households had access to land before leaving tactical element in the conflict. their place of origin, a much higher percentage than the share of landowners in a nationally representative sample. About half of the displacement cases in the sample The area abandoned was relatively large, averaging 22 occurred in reaction to a specific event, either a threat hectares, although the median was much smaller at 7 (36%), an assassination (7%), proximity to armed conflict hectares per household. While about two-thirds of (6%) or disappearances, kidnappings, and abduction of abandoned land was held under individual ownership, child soldiers (4%). About 60% of those involuntarily 17% had been accessed under rental arrangements, 11% displaced remain in the same department and 26% stay in under collective ownership and 5% under sharecropping the same municipality. This contradicts the widely-held (colonato) arrangements. It is interesting to note that those view that the bulk of displaced populations move to who held land collectively were both more likely to have Bogotá or other large cities. received assistance and to want to return, whereas those with individual tenure were significantly less likely to Mean household size is 4.9 and 38% of displaced want to return--renters seemed indifferent. households are female headed. This high percentage is likely due to the fact that in many displacement cases the The fact that the share of those who had received male head of household is killed or abducted. While only assistance is significantly higher among those who do 3% belong to ethnic minorities, 24% participated in some want to return compared to those who do not, implies that form of organization in their place of origin, suggesting receiving assistance does not reduce, and may even that as part of their war strategy, guerrillas and increase, household propensity to return, something that paramilitaries may target those whose departure would do needs to be explored in greater depth. the most damage to the web of social relations in a given locality--that is, a direct attack on communities' social Causes of Displacement capital. The social impact of displacement is illustrated by A more rigorous quantitative analysis for a smaller sample the fact that one quarter of the displaced households with explored the role of land in the probability of at least one child of primary school age indicated that one displacement. For a sample of 336 displaced and non- or more of the children dropped out of school as a result displaced households, the main determinants of receiving of displacement. a threat were ownership of assets (land and animals) and participation in social organizations. This is consistent Over 70% of those displaced received assistance during with the descriptive evidence provided above and the 2001-02, compared to 44% during 1999-00. The system hypothesis that territorial control is a critical element in to attend to the needs of displaced populations has the strategy of armed groups, who often target community improved considerably but continues to be focused on leaders or influential people in the community to set off a large-scale reactive displacement. While it is more likely chain reaction of displacement. that those receiving assistance belonged to some form of organized group, the fact that the share of female-headed Availability of a rich set of information at the households among those receiving assistance is not municipality level allowed the team to explore structural significantly higher than among those who did not, factors that tend to contribute to displacement. The suggests that improvements in targeting are still possible. literature suggests a number of factors that may cause displacement (inequality and access to resource rents that can be captured by exercising territorial control) and those 2 that tend to mitigate it (public goods such as pronged approach that on the one hand, addresses infrastructure). Theory would predict that the presence of structural factors such as the unproductive accumulation productive infrastructure will increase the payoff from of large tracts of land that have been shown to underlie remunerative economic activity, which will make it less displacement, and on the other hand, take specific likely for households to be displaced. Access to mineral measures that can reduce the propensity to leave, for resources, on the other hand, will increase the payoffs example by improving security and trying to reduce the from territorial control by armed groups, thus increasing incidence of violence. The key role of land warrants a the probability of displacement. Similarly, high brief discussion of one government land-related program, inequality in landownership will make it easier to evict Decree 2007, that aims to register immobile properties of people, and will also decrease social cohesion, in effect, populations under threat of displacement. making it easier to uproot a population of precarious and un-organized landowners or tenants. Decree 2007, signed in 2001, requires the Agrarian Reform Institute to: (i) put in place a registry of lands If the warring factions use control of land as a strategic abandoned by displaced populations; (ii) establish objective, they will use the threat of violent action, and mechanisms to freeze mobility of assets in zones were such action itself, as key elements of a war strategy to displacement danger is high; and (iii) implement a depopulate areas in which they can subsequently exert a program to allow displaced populations to exchange land measure of economic or political control. In addition to they lost with other land, possibly land acquired by the acts of violence, a key variable that should reduce state. The Institute is also charged with facilitating access household propensity for involuntary displacement is of the displaced to temporary properties, possibly under public spending. To capture this effect, the analysis rental arrangements. included lagged values for per capita spending on education, health, infrastructure, and police and justice. In practice, application of Decree 2007 has been very limited, partly due to funding constraints. One pilot The analysis finds, first, that higher levels of application in Landazuri, however, offers some lessons. landownership inequality have a strong and highly Given that the registry was out of date, systemic, massive, significant impact on displacement. In line with theory, and quick establishment of an updated registry with the presence of mineral wealth makes displacement more participation by a large section of the population, and likely, presumably because it increases the payoff from possibly the supervision of recognized public bodies to the ability to control a given territory. Road density, used quickly resolve disputes, is likely to have a high positive as a proxy for general infrastructure and state presence, impact. While preventive measures, including greater has a very strong and negative impact on displacement, land tenure security, may be much more cost-effective suggesting that by improving economic benefits from than trying to encourage the displaced to return, thus far remaining in a given location, provision of public goods the failure to allocate sufficient funding has prevented us can help reduce the incentive for displacement. Second, from learning what the impact of such measures might be. the results confirm the hypothesis that displacement constitutes a means to gain territorial control. Compared Determinants of the Desire to Return to the high significance of specific actions by violent Facilitating the return of households that were displaced groups, the number of murders--taken to represent more to their place of origin is an essential element in the generalized violence rather than violence aimed at gaining Government's strategy. As mentioned above few territorial control--is not significant. Higher population households appear to be willing to return under current density tends to increase displacement, suggesting that conditions. Thus, analyzing the determinants of displacement is no longer confined to outlying or willingness to return can provide policy-relevant insights marginal areas, but may indeed be a deliberate war that could help to design programs that would help strategy. Third, spending on social services, especially households to avoid displacement in the first place. In education, has a major displacement-reducing impact, particular, having micro-data on the displaced populations suggesting that by increasing spending (or its efficiency), could help identify whether specific interventions (such as the Government can help to make staying more attractive, the passage and implementation of Decree 2007, but also while at the same time reducing the incentives for parts of numerous others) increase households' willingness to the population to join the warring forces. return. Land-Related Policies to Assist the Displaced As expected, female-headed households with a large The above analysis suggests that the Government can aim number of children under 14 are less likely to be willing to reduce the incidence of displacement through a two- to return. Surprisingly, higher levels of education increase 3 the desire to return. Membership in an organization makes To do so, establishment of mobile registries with strong return more likely but belonging to an ethnic minority local and community participation should be considered, does not. As expected, those that were able to obtain wage as a way to provide at least some measure of asset employment or self-employment in their place of protection. Similarly, mechanisms (e.g., rental of displacement are significantly less likely to want to return. properties) to improve access to privately or publicly-held The big exception is agriculture--even those who were land by those displaced with agricultural skills may be able to pursue agricultural activities in their destination important to help maintain skills and livelihoods. are significantly more inclined to return than those who are unemployed. This implies that the large number of Programs to encourage return should constitute one of a households that undertook agricultural activities before number of options for displaced people. They should be displacement are always more likely to want to return, and targeted to areas where return is likely to be feasible and that temporary arrangements will be better than attempts to people for whom this is likely to offer a viable option-- to induce them to become permanent residents. those who have specific agricultural skills and have little alternative economic opportunities in their current Not surprisingly, households that remained in the same situation. Programs should include dissemination of department are significantly more likely to want to return information on the rights of displaced people, and while those that suffered reactive displacement are less implemented on the basis of negotiations and consensus likely to want to return. Interestingly, assistance that is rather than imposed from the outside. Return of land can relatively targeted on those most in need, helps them to also be complemented with technical assistance, credit cope with the impact of displacement but also enhances and acquisition of land through rental with option to buy. their desire to return. Also of interest is the fact that Decree 2007 did not appear to enhance the tenure security Providing assistance to displaced populations will not on collectively held land, but did help to increase the only have immediate benefits but is also likely to increase desire to return of those with individually-held land. the desire of those affected to eventually return. Any measures that improve the effectiveness of such assistance Policy Implications and the ability of local governments to provide it, would Although policy recommendations need to be adapted to therefore be welcome. A related issue, is that many of the local conditions, the evidence clearly suggests that, recipient municipalities have no financial or other overall, greater emphasis should be placed on preventive incentives to provide assistance to the displaced or to try measures compared to reactive ones that kick in only to integrate households that are unlikely to return (e.g., when households have already abandoned their place of female-headed households) under reasonable residence. In both categories, land-related policies are of circumstances. Providing local governments that receive great relevance. In terms of prevention, restitution of disproportionate inflows of displaced populations with the security in affected areas should be combined with means and incentives to offer effective services to this strengthening of processes that enhance social capital and population, with the aim of facilitating their eventual participation that can increase the ability of local reintegration into society, is likely to have a high impact. communities to resist pressures toward displacement. It may also be useful to combine this with more effective This could include improving the effectiveness of public and systematic monitoring. As the results of this study spending, which the econometric analysis suggests is a show, systematic monitoring of displaced populations at critical factor in reducing the incidence of involuntary the household level is likely to generate knowledge that displacement. Preventive mechanisms would also include can help us to further refine and improve our putting in place a program to actualize the land registry, understanding of the processes at work--and thus the placing priority on zones with high risk of displacement. ability to design policy interventions. "Social Development Notes" are published informally by the Social Development Department in the Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Network of The World Bank. They are aimed at encouraging discussion and comment among the development community on good practice in social development. SD Notes represent the view of their author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official policies of the World Bank. This CPR Dissemination Note was prepared by Ian Bannon (CPR), based on the findings of the World Bank report Colombia: Land Policy in Transition, (January 2004). The report was prepared by a joint Bank-Government of Colombia team. The team was led by Klaus Deininger and Isabel Lavadenz from the Bank, and Juan Lucas Restreppo and Jose Luis Gomez from the Government side. The displacement part of the study was made possible by the Conferencia Episcopal who provided access to their data, the background work by A.M. Ibañez and P. Querubin, and financial and substantive support from USAID, especially J. Sanjak. The Note was also published as Social Development Note No. XX. This CPR note series is intended to disseminate good practice and key findings on conflict prevention and reconstruction. It is edited by the CPR Unit in the Social Development Department of the Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Network of the World Bank. The views expressed in these notes are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. CPR Dissemination Notes are distributed widely to Bank staff and are also available on the CPR website 4(http://www.worldbank.org/conflict).