For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects November 4, 2016 Taking Stock U.S. economy added 161,000 nonfarm jobs in October, Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose less than expected by 161,000 in October, following September’s upwardly revised gain of 191,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 4.9 percent. Average hourly earnings rose 2.8 percent (y/y), the nd strongest growth since June 2009, and up from 2.6 percent in September. Prior to the jobs report, at its November 2 policy meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept the target range for its benchmark rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, in line with market expectations. In its policy statement, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has “continued to strengthen.’’ Euro Area GDP growth and inflation remained steady, composite PMI improved less than expected. Euro Area GDP rose by 0.3 percent (q/q, sa) in Q3, the same pace as in Q2 (Figure 1), in line with expectations. Headline inflation edged up from 0.4 percent (y/y) in September to 0.5 percent (y/y) in October, as higher service prices offset declines in food and energy prices. Core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) held steady, at 0.8 percent (y/y). Meanwhile, the final October reading of the composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 53.3, up from 52.6 in September, but below the flash estimate of 53.7 (a reading above 50 denotes expansion). The lower-than-expected October reading reflected weakness in the services sector, with a PMI reading of 52.8, compared to the flash estimate of 53.5. Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, delayed the timeline for achieving its inflation target. At its policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to leave monetary policy unchanged. The key policy rate was kept at negative 0.1 percent, the 10-year government bond yield target at around zero percent, and government bond purchases at 80 trillion yen a year. The BOJ revised its inflation forecast from 1.7 percent to 1.5 percent for fiscal year 2017, and pushed out the date by which it expects to hit the 2 percent inflation target to the end of fiscal year 2018, citing subdued inflation expectations. China’s official PMI increased in October. China’s official manufacturing PMI rose from 50.4 in September to 51.2 in October, more than expected and the highest reading since July 2014. Meanwhile, the services PMI edged up from 53.7 in September to 54.0 in October, its highest level this year. The breakdown of both PMIs showed a solid pickup in production and domestic new orders, suggesting strengthening domestic demand, while new export orders fell. The breakdown by firm size showed the improvement in business conditions was concentrated among small and medium size firms. October manufacturing PMI declined in South Africa, and rose moderately in Nigeria. South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell from 48.9 in September to 45.9 in October (Figure 2). Four out of the five main PMI subcomponents declined, amid weak domestic demand. Nigeria’s manufacturing PMI rose from 42.5 in September to 44.1 in October. The pace of deterioration in manufacturing activity eased, with modest improvements in new orders and employment. Figure 1 Euro Area GDP growth remained steady in Q3. Figure 2 South Africa’s manufacturing PMI plunged in October, while Nigeria’s improved but remains weak. Euro Area GDP growth South Africa & Nigeria manufacturing PMI Percent, quarter-over-quarter Index, 50+=expansion 1.0 56 South Africa 0.8 54 Nigeria 0.6 52 0.4 50 0.2 48 0.0 46 -0.2 44 -0.4 42 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Sep-15 Jun-16 Sep-16 Source: Haver Analytics. Source: Central Bank of Nigeria, Haver Analytics. Produced by DECPG. Number 324 | November 4, 2016 Weekly Insight: OPEC’s New Production Cut Plan in Historical Context On September 28, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to limit crude oil output to 32.5 - 33 million barrels per day. If implemented, this agreement would bring to an end two years of unrestrained production. The details of OPEC’s new plan and final decision have been deferred until November 30, 2016. OPEC members must agree on several issues including individual member quotas, the base period for any cuts, the timing of implementation, and the level at which excluded countries would cap production (Figure 3, Commodity Markets Outlook October 2016). A cut from current production levels to 32.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) would entail a 1.0 mb/d reduction. Setting the ceiling at 33.0 mb/d (compared with global consumption of 95 mb/d in 2015) would imply a 0.5 mb/d reduction. If the Islamic Republic of Iran, Libya, and Nigeria raise production significantly in the coming months, larger production cuts would be warranted by other producers to meet OPEC’s overall targets. Efforts to manage world commodity markets to achieve price objectives have not been unique to the oil market . A number of formal commodity agreements, often negotiated among producing and consuming nations to stabilize prices, were put in places after World War II (Baffes et al. 2015). These arrangements covered coffee, olive oil, sugar, rubber, tin, and wheat. Participants agreed to legally binding ways to manage markets, including export restrictions and inventory management. However, these laws proved to be the agreements’ undoing. Over the long term, price and trade restrictions imposed by some of the agreements either encouraged the emergence of competitor products, such as aluminum for tin, or the entry of new producers, as Vietnam in the case of coffee . With the exception of OPEC, all these agreements have collapsed. OPEC has influenced oil prices through individual member quotas, adjusting them during the ebb and flow of oil prices, oil demand, and non-OPEC supply. Production cuts in 1998-99 during the East Asian financial crisis, and in 2008-09 during the global recession, were instrumental in lifting prices. High oil prices during the most recent commodity price boom stimulated new sources of supply, especially from the United States (Figure 4), which have challenged the organization’s ability to influence the oil market. A key difference between OPEC and earlier formal commodity arrangements is that OPEC does not have contractual rules dictating whether and how to intervene in markets. Thus, the organization has had greater flexibility to respond to changing circumstances. Figure 3 OPEC members will have to agree on production quotas. Figure 4 The recent commodity price boom stimulated new sources of oil supply from the United States. OPEC oil production and quotas Crude oil supply growth mb/d mb/d, cummulative growth since 2010Q4 35 4 Iran Thousands Libya Production 3 Syria 2 Yemen 30 United States 1 Net Changes 0 25 -1 Quotas (not in -2 place after -3 November 2014) 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 20 2000 1991 1994 1997 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Sources: World Bank, International Energy Agency. Source: International Energy Agency. Note: Last observation is September 2016. Quotas ceased after Note: Last observation is 2016Q3. November 2014. Produced by DECPG. Number 324 | November 4, 2016 Major Data Releases (Percent change y-o-y) (Percent change y-o-y) Recent releases: Fri, 28 October - Thu, 3 November 2016 Upcoming releases: Fri, 4 November - Thu, 10 November 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous France 10/28/16 GDP Q3 1.2 1.1 1.3 Hungary 11/8/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) OCT 0.6 Eurozone 10/31/16 GDP Q3 1.6 1.6 1.6 China 11/8/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) OCT 1.9 South Korea 10/31/16 CPI OCT 1.3 1.1 1.1 Brazil 11/9/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) OCT 8.5 Thailand 11/1/16 CPI OCT 0.3 0.4 Mexico 11/9/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) OCT 3.0 Indonesia 11/1/16 CPI OCT 3.3 3.5 3.1 Netherland 11/10/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) OCT 0.1 Turkey 11/3/16 CPI OCT 7.2 7.3 Denmark 11/10/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) OCT 0.0 Activity and Inflation (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 1 Industrial Production, sa World 3.2 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.2 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.6 2.1 Advanced Economies 2.0 0.5 0.6 -1.4 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.2 -1.3 0.2 -1.1 -0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.5 3.4 3.4 4.6 2.3 4.3 3.5 3.3 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.7 4.1 3.5 3.9 Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.0 -0.3 -1.3 1.2 0.6 1.6 -0.6 -0.1 -1.4 0.2 1.7 -0.6 -0.8 0.5 1.8 1.8 - Other EMDE 6.8 5.1 5.6 5.9 2.9 5.3 5.4 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.1 4.9 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 5.8 5.5 7.7 3.3 7.1 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.5 5.5 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.3 East Asia excl. China 3.0 3.6 5.2 5.8 4.2 3.6 3.7 4.3 2.0 5.5 5.5 3.2 2.0 5.7 6.5 5.8 5.6 Europe and Central Asia 2.7 0.5 2.9 4.2 1.3 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.6 3.1 1.5 2.4 2.3 1.9 -0.4 1.6 Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -3.2 -4.4 -6.5 -3.0 0.8 -4.8 -5.1 -4.6 -4.2 -4.9 -4.3 -4.2 -3.6 -2.1 -2.6 -2.9 Middle East and North Africa 0.8 2.6 1.4 9.9 2.2 -3.3 3.8 4.9 2.2 6.6 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 3.2 4.4 - South Asia 2.6 4.3 4.6 -8.3 4.4 5.4 10.3 -1.3 0.9 0.2 3.4 2.5 -0.4 1.6 2.9 -1.2 -0.3 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.0 0.1 6.6 -1.2 1.1 8.3 -0.4 -1.3 0.2 -0.9 1.5 -1.2 2.4 4.1 4.3 1.6 0.1 2 Inflation, sa World 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.1 Advanced Economies 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.3 Other EMDE 2.9 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.3 0.9 East Asia and Pacific 3.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 Europe and Central Asia 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.5 Latin America and Caribbean 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.7 3.5 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 2.9 2.9 Middle East and North Africa 2.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.1 South Asia 6.8 3.5 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.8 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0 5.6 5.4 4.5 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.8 4.5 4.1 4.5 5.1 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 3.7 4.7 6.0 5.9 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industral production, manufacturing" and "industrial production, manufacturing, non-durable manufacturing, petroleum and coal products, crude petrolem products" are used as proxies 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping. Trade and Finance (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.1 -11.6 -6.6 -6.3 -12.2 14.5 -12.5 -11.1 -10.1 -11.9 -9.0 -3.6 -2.7 -2.9 -3.8 -6.6 2.4 Advanced Economies 1.2 -11.3 -5.8 -7.3 -5.1 15.5 -11.7 -9.8 -9.9 -9.3 -4.0 -3.6 -0.3 -0.7 -2.3 -5.5 4.5 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 0.8 -12.0 -7.7 -4.6 -23.0 12.6 -13.9 -13.1 -10.3 -16.0 -16.3 -3.7 -6.7 -6.7 -6.2 -8.3 -1.2 Commodity-exporting EMDE -4.8 -24.4 -23.2 -12.5 -24.8 18.5 -24.8 -23.5 -21.0 -24.9 -13.5 -15.6 -13.5 -10.7 -11.9 -13.8 0.1 Other EMDE 4.9 -3.8 1.7 -0.3 -20.5 10.6 -7.1 -6.8 -3.9 -11.1 -17.1 4.4 -2.3 -3.8 -2.4 -5.1 -0.9 East Asia and Pacific 4.6 -3.5 -0.7 -0.5 -24.6 11.9 -8.3 -7.9 -4.2 -13.2 -20.5 6.1 -3.8 -5.2 -4.4 -6.2 -1.0 Europe and Central Asia -0.9 -20.7 -15.9 -8.6 -20.5 19.9 -20.5 -17.7 -14.7 -22.2 -13.0 -13.2 -8.2 -10.4 -3.8 -8.6 1.5 Latin America and Caribbean -1.0 -12.0 -10.3 -9.1 -6.2 5.1 -11.8 -11.8 -11.6 -11.6 -4.1 -9.2 -5.4 -2.1 -8.2 -7.6 2.0 Middle East and North Africa -5.1 -26.3 -15.9 -7.5 - - -25.1 -24.1 -22.1 -23.2 - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -4.8 -8.9 9.1 4.6 3.9 -1.4 -8.9 -5.4 -3.1 4.2 -0.3 0.9 -0.4 5.4 -4.0 -12.2 Sub-Saharan Africa -6.5 -28.8 -25.7 -18.2 -27.7 - -29.3 -28.1 -28.3 -27.5 -22.9 -19.7 -13.4 - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.2 -12.6 -6.0 -6.5 -14.2 10.1 -13.3 -10.3 -11.2 -11.7 -5.3 -7.5 -6.0 -2.4 -5.2 -10.0 1.2 Advanced Economies 2.1 -12.5 -5.1 -7.0 -9.5 8.3 -12.0 -8.9 -11.3 -9.7 -2.7 -6.7 -4.1 -1.9 -4.7 -8.7 0.9 Emerging Market and Developing Economies -0.4 -12.8 -7.5 -5.7 -21.5 13.9 -15.5 -12.7 -11.0 -15.1 -9.6 -8.6 -9.1 -3.0 -5.9 -12.2 2.1 Commodity-exporting EMDE -2.5 -14.9 -11.1 -11.1 -17.8 -0.8 -16.8 -15.7 -17.0 -18.2 -14.9 -13.6 -13.5 -9.2 -8.5 -16.7 -2.2 Other EMDE 0.8 -11.5 -5.5 -2.7 -24.6 19.2 -14.8 -11.0 -7.5 -13.3 -6.8 -6.4 -7.6 -0.7 -5.4 -11.3 3.7 East Asia and Pacific -0.5 -13.1 -5.8 -0.3 -29.5 24.1 -18.1 -8.7 -8.5 -16.7 -11.1 -5.3 -8.2 0.7 -6.6 -11.0 5.4 Europe and Central Asia -3.7 -20.7 -8.7 -9.9 3.6 11.9 -19.2 -18.5 -18.0 -14.9 -5.1 -3.6 -3.1 -1.4 1.0 -10.5 7.6 Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -9.9 -6.2 -13.6 -16.3 3.5 -12.4 -11.0 -15.7 -16.3 -9.9 -14.6 -10.0 -6.3 -8.9 -16.1 1.2 Middle East and North Africa 2.9 -6.3 -10.4 -3.0 - - -5.4 -11.7 -9.1 -12.8 - - - - - - - South Asia 1.1 -13.2 -4.1 -11.4 -29.8 1.6 -18.0 -25.1 -3.3 -6.8 -3.5 -18.8 -18.8 -9.4 -7.0 -14.7 -9.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 -7.3 -17.7 -8.8 - - -14.1 -9.7 -11.5 -18.8 - - - - - - - 1 International Reserves, US$ World -1.3 -5.8 -2.3 -2.7 0.7 0.9 0.1 -1.9 -0.8 -0.9 0.5 1.0 0.7 -0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 Advanced Economies 0.1 0.6 -0.1 -1.1 3.7 1.7 -0.1 -1.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.0 -0.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 Emerging Market and Developing Economies -2.1 -9.9 -3.6 -3.6 -1.1 0.4 0.1 -2.1 -1.7 -1.9 0.1 0.8 0.6 -0.8 0.6 0.2 -0.1 Commodity-exporting EMDE -7.0 -11.3 -2.7 -2.1 -1.0 -0.1 -0.5 -1.6 -0.1 -1.7 0.2 0.6 0.3 -0.8 0.4 0.6 - Other EMDE 0.7 -9.1 -4.0 -4.4 -1.2 0.7 0.4 -2.3 -2.5 -2.1 0.0 0.9 0.7 -0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.2 East Asia and Pacific 0.2 -11.3 -4.9 -4.4 -1.8 0.3 0.4 -2.3 -2.5 -2.5 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 0.9 0.0 -0.4 Europe and Central Asia -16.7 -6.3 1.3 -3.7 4.0 2.8 -0.2 -2.0 -1.6 0.6 1.9 1.4 1.6 -0.1 1.4 0.4 0.5 Latin America and Caribbean 0.1 -5.3 -2.8 -1.5 0.1 0.6 -0.2 -1.3 0.0 -0.6 0.1 0.7 0.8 -0.2 -0.1 1.6 -0.1 Middle East and North Africa -2.7 -16.9 -3.4 -3.7 -3.4 - -0.7 -2.3 -0.7 -2.7 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 - - - - South Asia 11.3 11.7 -0.6 1.3 1.0 1.6 0.9 -0.4 0.8 -1.1 -0.2 2.3 2.0 -0.8 0.4 1.8 0.6 Sub-Saharan Africa -9.6 -11.9 -2.0 -0.1 -2.1 - 1.0 -0.4 -0.7 -1.5 -1.5 1.0 0.4 -1.6 - - - 1 Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable. Produced by DECPG. Number 324 | November 4, 2016 Financial Markets 2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.37 0.37 0.39 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.41 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.41 0.62 0.64 0.79 0.37 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.81 0.85 0.89 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.09 -0.19 -0.26 -0.30 -0.09 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 -0.23 -0.25 -0.26 -0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.30 -0.31 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.18 1.92 1.75 1.56 2.26 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.79 1.80 1.64 1.48 1.56 1.63 1.80 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.56 0.32 0.12 -0.07 0.55 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.01 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 0.09 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 426 431 478 419 372 413 442 485 507 443 421 418 418 387 367 361 360 Asia 206 232 245 264 227 197 235 253 268 282 243 224 223 233 210 190 191 189 Europe 287 348 311 339 305 282 294 308 338 359 319 308 305 303 290 282 273 274 Latin America & Caribbean 407 559 577 645 551 477 553 595 662 687 588 559 552 541 496 473 463 462 Middle East 388 471 506 555 538 508 503 512 542 580 545 539 530 545 540 492 493 483 Africa 323 449 509 626 548 461 482 555 644 661 573 546 552 546 494 448 440 440 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 417 399 399 395 399 418 407 399 375 372 395 403 403 399 414 417 418 413 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 1710 1663 1663 1638 1653 1726 1694 1663 1562 1547 1638 1671 1675 1653 1713 1720 1726 1700 United States (S&P 500) 2059 2044 2044 2051 2099 2168 2080 2044 1940 1932 2051 2065 2097 2099 2170 2171 2168 2139 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1401 1474 1474 1352 1339 1388 1558 1474 1381 1347 1352 1379 1399 1339 1376 1390 1388 1386 Japan (Nikkei 225) 16292 16292 18817 16555 15576 16450 19921 18817 17518 15989 16555 16407 17235 15576 16556 16887 16450 17392 Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 956 794 794 821 834 903 814 794 742 740 821 840 807 834 879 894 903 911 EM Asia 457 404 404 404 407 448 408 404 374 369 404 405 400 407 431 442 448 445 EM Europe 297 244 244 272 265 273 263 244 237 241 272 288 268 265 264 269 273 276 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 211 230 225 233 222 211 202 208 230 243 225 225 227 232 233 234 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1830 2121 2269 2381 1919 1830 1744 1804 2121 2292 2038 2269 2359 2402 2381 2613 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.90 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.92 Japan 105.89 121.00 121.41 115.23 107.96 102.36 122.61 121.62 118.37 114.44 112.87 109.57 108.97 105.34 104.09 101.31 101.69 104.13 Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.84 3.91 3.51 3.25 3.78 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.70 3.56 3.54 3.42 3.28 3.21 3.25 3.11 China 6.16 6.29 6.39 6.54 6.53 6.67 6.37 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.51 6.48 6.53 6.59 6.68 6.65 6.67 6.78 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.88 8.04 8.87 8.87 7.91 7.83 7.83 7.82 8.47 8.87 8.86 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.88 8.88 India 61.03 64.14 65.91 67.50 66.91 66.94 66.15 66.54 67.31 68.22 66.95 66.49 66.93 67.29 67.18 66.91 66.74 66.83 Russia 38.58 61.34 66.17 74.84 65.84 64.61 65.01 70.19 77.36 77.23 69.93 66.54 65.96 65.01 64.43 64.93 64.48 62.25 South Africa 10.85 12.77 14.22 15.83 15.01 14.07 14.14 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.39 14.62 15.36 15.05 14.40 13.79 14.01 13.77 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 102.2 114.7 118.1 120.3 117.5 118.4 118.3 119.4 121.8 120.7 118.4 116.5 117.8 118.2 118.9 117.8 118.6 120.2 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Energy 2 118 65 54 43 56 57 55 48 40 41 47 51 57 59 57 58 58 68 Non-energy 2 97 82 78 76 81 82 77 76 75 76 78 80 81 83 82 82 81 81 Agriculture 2 103 89 86 85 91 91 86 85 84 84 86 88 91 94 92 91 90 89 Metals and minerals 2 88 68 60 59 62 65 59 57 56 59 62 63 61 61 65 65 64 64 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 96 51 42 33 45 45 43 37 30 31 37 41 46 48 44 45 45 49 Gold ($/toz) 1266 1161 1107 1181 1260 1334 1086 1076 1098 1200 1245 1242 1261 1276 1337 1340 1327 1224 Baltic Dry Index 1103 711 627 363 613 736 582 510 391 307 390 608 623 608 707 675 826 813 Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. Produced by DECPG. Number 324 | November 4, 2016