Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 58075-RW THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION AND THE MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY PROGRESS REPORT FOR THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA February 9, 2011 Eastern Africa Country Cluster 2 (AFCE2) Africa Region The International Finance Corporation Sub-Saharan Africa Department The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency This document is being made publicly available prior to Board consideration. This does not imply a presumed outcome. This document may be updated following Board consideration and the updated document will be made publicly available in accordance with the Bank's Policy on Access to Information. DATE OF CURRENT COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY AUGUST 7, 2008 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective November 2, 2010) Currency Unit = Rwanda Francs (Rwf) US$1.00 = 579 Rwf GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR July 1­June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AAA Analytic and Advisory Activities AfDB African Development Bank CAS Country Assistance Strategy CAS PR CAS Progress Report CPAF Common Performance Assessment Framework CPI Consumer Price Index DfID UK Department for International Development DHS Demographic and Health Survey DOL Division of Labor DRC Democratic Republic of Congo EAC East African Community EC European Commission EDPRS Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy EFA FTI Education For All Fast Track Initiative FIRST Financial Sector Reform Strengthening Initiative FY Fiscal Year GDP Gross Domestic Product GAFSP Global Agriculture and Food Security Program GFCRP Global Food Crisis Response Program ICA Investment Climate Assessment ICT Information and Communication Technology IDA International Development Association IFC International Finance Corporation IMF International Monetary Fund JGA Joint Governance Assessment KCC Kigali Convention Center MDG Millennium Development Goal MDRP Multi-country Demobilization and Reintegration Program M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MW Megawatt PBF Performance Based Financing PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability PFM Public Financial Management ii PPP Public-Private Partnerships PRSF Poverty Reduction Support Financing PRSG Poverty Reduction Strategy Grant PSI Policy Support Instrument REC Regional Economic Communities RWF Rwanda Francs SME Small and Medium Enterprise SWAp Sector-Wide Approach SWG Sector Working Group UN United Nations VUP Vision 2020 Umurenge Program WBG World Bank Group IDA IFC MIGA Vice President Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Thierry Tanoh Izumi Kobayashi Country Director Johannes Zutt Jean Philippe Prosper Ravi Vish Country Program Coordinator Marie-Hélène Bricknell Country Manager Omowunmi Ladipo Task Team Leader Johannes Widmann Arthur Mambou Thomas A. Vis iii COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY PROGRESS REPORT FOR THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 II. Country Context ................................................................................................................................... 1 A. Economic Context ..................................................................................................................... 1 B. Policy, Operating and Political Context .................................................................................... 2 III. Progress toward CAS Outcomes ......................................................................................................... 4 A. Progress on CAS Strategic Theme 1: Promoting Rwanda's Economic Transformation for Sustained Growth ...................................................................................................................... 4 B. Progress on CAS Strategic Theme 2: Decrease Social Vulnerability ....................................... 6 IV. Adjustments to the CAS, Partnerships and Progress in Implementation ............................................ 7 A. CAS Program Adjustments ....................................................................................................... 7 B. Partnership Arrangements ......................................................................................................... 7 C. Implementation Progress........................................................................................................... 9 V. Risks ................................................................................................................................................... 10 Annex 1: Updated Results Framework for the Rwanda CAS FY09-FY12 ................................................ 12 Annex 2: Updated and Revised CAS Outcome Indicators ......................................................................... 18 Annex 3: IDA Lending Program ................................................................................................................. 19 Annex 4: IDA Analytic Program ................................................................................................................ 20 Annex 5: WBG Collaboration..................................................................................................................... 21 Annex 6: Rwanda Division of Labor .......................................................................................................... 22 Annex 7: Use of Trust Funds in Rwanda .................................................................................................... 23 Annex 8: Selected Indicators of Portfolio Performance and Management ................................................. 24 Annex 9: IDA Operations Portfolio ............................................................................................................ 25 Annex 10: IFC Program .............................................................................................................................. 26 Annex 11: Rwanda at a Glance ................................................................................................................... 27 Map of Rwanda No. IBRD 33471 iv COUNTRY ASSISTANCE STRATEGY PROGRESS REPORT FOR THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA I. Introduction 1. This Country Assistance Strategy Progress Report (CAS PR) assesses the implementation of the World Bank's FY09-12 Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) for Rwanda.1 The CAS supports flagship programs on growth and social protection as formulated in Rwanda's Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS). The CAS has two objectives: (i) to promote economic transformation and growth and (ii) to reduce social vulnerability. Within these objectives, the CAS is supporting five CAS outcomes. This CAS PR describes changes in the country context, progress toward CAS outcomes and any remaining challenges. It sets out adjustments to the CAS program and partnership arrangements, and reports on implementation progress. The last section updates the risk framework. II. Country Context A. Economic Context 2. Rwanda experienced a slightly delayed impact of the global economic crisis but is already showing signs of recovery. According to the IMF's Staff Report for its 2010 Article IV mission and first Policy Support Instrument (PSI) review, growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) fell to 4.1 percent in 2009 from 11.2 percent in 2008, but is expected to rebound to 6.5 percent in 2010. Growth in 2009 was mainly driven by agriculture, with a rate of 7.7 percent. The expected recovery in 2010 will be driven by a rebound in growth in services and construction in addition to continued growth in agriculture. The average growth rate of 2006-10 is estimated at 7.3 percent annually and remains below the EDPRS target of 8 percent. 3. Inflation has returned to single digit numbers as global food and fuel prices eased off. Inflation retreated in 2009 from peak levels at end-2008, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) standing at 22.3 percent. So far in 2010, the CPI has remained under 5 percent, declining to 1.5 percent by end-September. The decrease in import prices and good performance in food production were the major cause of this evolution. 4. The trade deficit continued to widen during 2009, due to both a decreased demand for Rwanda's exports and a significant growth in imports. The trade deficit reached 16 percent of GDP in 2009, up from 13.1 percent in 2008. While imports continued to rise, external demand for Rwanda's main export products fell. Export values declined by 28.0 percent in 2009, reflecting also lower international prices. Import values grew by 16.4 percent in 2009, mainly driven by an increase in imported consumer and energy goods. The current account deficit deteriorated to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2009, following a downward trend since 2007. Trade data for the first half of 2010 show slight improvements, mainly due to a rebound in prices and strong volumes of tea exports. Going forward, the high trade deficit and low exports are key challenges that could derail Rwanda's ambition to become a lower middle-income economy. 5. The most recent Debt Sustainability Analysis of May 2010 confirmed that Rwanda remains at moderate risk of debt distress. Rwanda's central government external debt 1 The CAS (Report No. 44983-RW) is dated August 7, 2008. 1 (including guarantees) amounted to 14.4 percent of GDP at end-2009, with more than four-fifths owed to multilateral creditors. Debt indicators remain most vulnerable to an export shock, further underlining the need to expand and strengthen the export base. While the external debt dynamics appear sustainable, there are risks, especially in the short term, associated with additional non concessional external borrowing. It would therefore be imperative to continue to carefully assess the economic viability of large investment projects, and consider financing options that incorporate participation from the private sector. 6. Medium-term growth prospects are favorable, with growth benefitting from increases in agriculture productivity and recovery in services. Increased investments in improved inputs (fertilizers and seeds) together with irrigation, extension in services and the dispatch of farm machinery will sustain the positive trend in the agriculture sector, while services will benefit from the recovery in lending activities. Other factors that will have an impact are marketability, price developments, improved value chains, and a stronger role for the private sector, together with improvements in infrastructure (energy and roads). Growth is also forecast to be supported by the Government's strategic investments strategy, which is expected to lead to an increase in capital spending. Rwanda's medium-term framework expects real growth of 6 to 7 percent per year for 2010-13. The current account is expected to remain in deficit, due to higher capital imports associated with the expanding public investments program. Imports are expected to outpace moderate expansion in exports. 7. Macroeconomic prospects are favorable, but some potential fiscal risks remain. While the macroeconomic framework is considered adequate and the first review of the IMF- supported PSI program has been satisfactory, there nevertheless remain risks with respect to potential future expenditures on the strategic investments and the need to increase revenue generation. The overall fiscal deficit (excluding grants) increased in 2009/10 to 13.7 percent of GDP, from 11.5 percent in 2008/09, which was driven mainly by spending on RwandAir and the Kigali Convention Center (KCC), two of the government's strategic investments. Net lending increased in 2009/10 and was mostly absorbed by these investments. For 2010/11, net lending will remain flat, with new net-lending planned to be mainly absorbed by RwandAir, due to the delay for an agreement on further KCC lending. Future expenditures on the strategic investments could lead to an increase in net lending and have a negative impact on the fiscal deficit. To minimize the fiscal deficit, revenues would need to continue to increase at ambitious levels--consistent with the EDPRS--by 2 percent of GDP between 2010/11 and 2012/13. This will need to be backed by significant revenue administration reforms. B. Policy, Operating and Political Context 8. The Government of Rwanda has identified six strategic investments to address Rwanda's lack of economic infrastructure, which constitutes a binding constraint on increasing and diversifying exports. A March 2010 government paper identified six complementary investment projects aimed at employment generation, poverty reduction and an increase in traditional exports (coffee, tea, mining and tourism) as well as new exports (horticulture, ICT, and business services). The paper is a direct response to the trade deficit described above. The six investments are: (i) Energy Rollout ­ an increase in household grid connections from 6 percent at end-2008 to 16 percent by 2013; (ii) Core ICT Infrastructure ­ the building of infrastructure for high-speed broadband; (iii) KCC ­ a five-star hotel and convention center; (iv) RwandAir ­ expansion of the fleet and flight connections of the state airline; (v) 2 Regional Railway ­ the building/rehabilitation of a railway linking Rwanda to Burundi and Tanzania; and (vi) Bugesera International Airport ­ the construction of a new international airport. As discussed below, the World Bank Group (WBG) programs are largely already aligned with the strategic investments within the framework of the CAS. 9. The Government of Rwanda has also adopted a new strategic approach to capacity strengthening, with a focus on identifying the main capacity constraints in priority sectors for export promotion and growth. In an initiative related to the strategic investments with a focus on the public sector--but also aimed at increasing exports--capacity needs assessments have been carried out in the agriculture, electricity and mining sectors. These assessments formed the basis for a US$34 million proposal of technical assistance support over the medium- term to address staffing and skills gaps and strengthen the centre of government. The initiative will help to address the issues of poor retention, high turnover and skills gaps affecting the civil service. The Bank will support this new approach through measures further outlined below. 10. In July 2010, the Government finalized a division of labor (DOL) exercise, which aimed to limit each development partner's activities to three sectors. Rwanda continues to be considered a model partner, which uses financial assistance effectively, and continues to attract a large number of donors. There are currently 12 bilateral, 3 multilateral and about 16 UN organizations active in Rwanda. The DOL is the Government's attempt to reduce transaction costs and improve aid effectiveness. To map partners to sectors, the government took into account financing gaps under EDPRS programs as well as specific donor characteristics such as a donor's preferred aid modalities, track record, mandate, and global experience. The DOL, presented in Annex 6, confirms the Bank's priority engagement in three sectors--agriculture, energy, and transport (including ICT)--as well as some cross-sector areas. The implications of the DOL on the Bank's program are discussed further below. 11. Other challenges in the operating context include the common performance framework that underpins IDA's Poverty Reduction Strategy Financing (PRSF) as well as a re-examination by Government of its participation in regional projects. With respect to the former, a Common Performance Assessment Framework (CPAF) has been in place since end-2008. While contributing to improved alignment of PRSF prior actions with EDPRS objectives and targets as captured in the CPAF, this alignment effort has also generated some tensions, as the CPAF and the Bank are not always monitoring the same policies (this is discussed further below). Regarding the latter, the Government has expressed concerns about the development effectiveness of IDA-supported regional projects as currently designed, noting that their success depends on the political will and readiness of other governments, which often results in slow progress in overall implementation. 12. On the political front, recent negative perceptions of the scope and quality of democratic space in Rwanda, widely reported in the international media, could have a detrimental impact on the continued ability of Rwanda to attract high levels of development assistance. While this development--further discussed in the risks section--does not currently warrant adjustments to the CAS, any significant decline in the volume of external financing made available to Rwanda over the medium term could jeopardize the achievement of CAS outcomes. 3 III. Progress toward CAS Outcomes 13. Rwanda's performance toward CAS outcomes has been largely positive, but important challenges remain. Within the two CAS objectives of (i) promoting economic transformation and growth and (ii) reducing social vulnerability, the CAS heavily focused on activities under the first theme. The recent DOL confirmed the priority engagement of the Bank within this theme, and the focus of the rest of the CAS period will be primarily on promoting economic transformation and increasing growth, especially of exports. While the Bank under the DOL will no longer provide direct financing in some sectors--such as health and education--it will nevertheless continue to be a silent partner in social protection and support cross-cutting areas including skills, employment and demobilization. This section provides only a broad account of progress on the CAS outcomes, with a focus on the remaining challenges. A detailed assessment of progress towards CAS milestones and outcomes can be found in Annex 1. A. Progress on CAS Strategic Theme 1: Promoting Rwanda's Economic Transformation for Sustained Growth 14. The CAS outcomes under Theme 1 are improvements in (i) agricultural production, particularly for food crops; (ii) the access to and quality of key infrastructure services; (iii) the environment for sound private sector development; and (iv) the capacity to manage public resources at central and local levels. 15. Progress toward the increase in agriculture production was considerable, but there is a strong need to improve the value of agriculture exports. There has been considerable progress in intensification and increased production in marshland and hillside areas, targeted by both active Bank projects. Production of rice and other food crops are expected to increase drastically over the rest of the CAS period. The importance of agriculture for Rwanda's development was underlined during the 2009 global economic downturn. While other sectors of the economy were heavily affected and overall economic growth declined sharply, agriculture proved resilient and with a growth rate of 7.7 percent was the main contributor--by about 80 percent--to growth. Nonetheless, export values declined at the same time, due inter alia to the weak demand for Rwandan tea and coffee. Going forward, the Bank will focus on further promoting horticulture, tea and other agriculture exports as part of a stronger focus on private sector development. 16. Progress on improving transport infrastructure has generally been good, but high transport costs remain a key challenge. Road rehabilitation resulted in a significant improvement in national road conditions, but accessibility in rural areas, where the majority of the population lives, remains poor, and most rural roads (about 70 percent) are in poor condition. Transport costs from the main ports in Mombasa and Dar es Salaam to Kigali are estimated to be at least 70 percent higher than in the rest of the East African Community (EAC) and account for about 40 percent of the cost of imported goods and 50 percent of exported goods. A key challenge over the rest of the CAS period and the next CAS will be to improve further the condition of rural roads within Rwanda and transport links with the rest of the EAC. 17. There has been good progress in the energy sector, but energy generation and access remain very low. Generation capacity has increased from about 41 MW in 2004 to 84 MW in 2010, but remains too low to support the country's economic transformation, especially with respect to increased investments by the private sector. Rwanda's electricity access rate of about 4 8 percent is still the second lowest in EAC after Burundi and among the lowest in the world. Government and Development Partners in March 2009 agreed on the National Electricity Access Roll-out Program, which features among the country's strategic investments and is supported by the Bank. However, an increase in energy access will have to be accompanied by a parallel increase in generation. Both challenges will remain key for the remainder of this CAS and the next. As further outlined below, the WBG works closely with Government to support increased private as well as public-private investments in the energy sector. 18. Rwanda has made good progress on the roll-out of ICT network coverage and development of ICT applications, but overall access remains low. IDA supports the national data backbone--one of the strategic investments--by connecting Rwanda to neighboring countries and fiber-optic cables off the coast of East Africa. In addition, there has been support to providing connectivity to key institutions and the development of several online services. The remaining challenge will be to increase network coverage further. In the medium term, a challenge will be to increase accessibility to a population with low levels of knowledge in ICT. 19. There has been excellent progress in improving the regulatory business environment, but challenges remain to increase investments and trade. Rwanda was named the top reformer in Doing Business 2010 and the second best reformer in 2011, having jumped from 143 to 67 and subsequently to 58 out of 183 countries. It is now easier, faster and less expensive to do business in Rwanda. Nonetheless, as noted above, the growing trade deficit presents some concern. In addition, foreign direct investments, at about 0.5 percent of GDP, are well below the Sub-Saharan average of 2.5 percent. The Investment Climate Assessment and other surveys point to a number of constraints beyond those measured by the Doing Business indicators, including low labor productivity, lack of skills, and limited access to finance and electricity. As outlined further below, the WBG will collaborate on various fronts in order to improve trade and the environment for private investors further. For example, the WBG's focus in this area over the remainder of the CAS period will be to support the Government with the establishment of an effective public -private dialogue mechanism that will help set and implement a broader Investment Climate reform agenda focused on the private sector. In addition, the WBG will help guide and focus the Government's efforts to accelerate investments and exports in the horticulture and tea sectors by supporting an initiative that will combine efforts to address the binding constraints to more investment in these sectors with a parallel highly-targeted investment promotion effort. 20. Key education indicators are largely on track, but there remains an acute shortage of skills to support the country's economic transformation. School completion rates and other indicators on education quality have improved but there remain questions about the sustainability of further progress in the education sector. Education is no longer a Bank sector under the DOL. Nonetheless, recognizing the issue of skills constraints mentioned above, the Government has requested the Bank to support addressing skills shortages as a cross-sector concentration by moving forward the planned Skills Development Project from FY12 to FY11 and increasing its IDA amount from US$10 million to US$30 million. 21. While there has been progress in strengthening the capacity to manage public resources, important challenges remain with respect to the broader reform agenda. There 5 has generally been good progress in the areas of public finance management and strengthening of auditing and procurement functions of central and local government agencies. Findings from the 2010 Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessment exercise show some significant improvements inter alia in the areas of public expenditure management, budget reporting and procurement controls. Improvements in procurement systems also resulted in the Bank approving Rwanda as the first pilot country for the use of procurement systems. Challenges for the rest of the CAS period remain regarding the broader aspects of civil service reform, including Bank support to the new initiative on capacity strengthening. B. Progress on CAS Strategic Theme 2: Decrease Social Vulnerability 22. The CAS outcome under Theme 2 is to mitigate significant health and social risks to vulnerable groups and to social cohesion in Rwanda. 23. There has been good progress on several health outcomes, but challenges remain with respect to maternal mortality, fertility, under-nutrition and population growth. Rwanda remains on track to achieve MDG4 on under-five mortality and has made important progress in terms of improving the efficiency and equity of health services, notably through performance-based financing. Nonetheless, progress on MDG5 on maternal mortality has been uneven. While the overall trend remains downward from 750 per 100,000 live births in 2000- 2004, previous estimates of 383 in 2008 had to be adjusted upwards to 540. Further remaining challenges include high fertility (with a total rate of 5.5) and under-nutrition (with prevalence of stunting among under-five children at 45 percent in 2005/06). Continued high population growth of 2.9 percent remains a key challenge, impacting not only on social outcomes but also economic development. In line with the DOL, the Bank will phase out its lending activities in the health sector and contributions to health outcomes (including the ones in the CAS) will increasingly come from other development partners. That said, the Bank will continue to provide analytic and policy support on a demand basis, especially on population growth and other demographic issues. 24. There has been good progress in implementation of a social safety net, but challenges remain with respect to youth employment. Government continues to expand services to the most vulnerable segments of the population under the Vision 2020 Umurenge Program (VUP). Under the DOL, the Bank is a silent partner in social protection and continues to provide any required analytic support and potential financing in areas that are cross-sectoral. For example, the Bank currently provides technical assistance to generate lessons from the VUP and enhance sustainability through capacity strengthening. One important area in direct relationship to the population growth issue mentioned above is youth. Youth between the ages of 14 and 35 years currently constitute 40 percent of the population and 42 percent of these youth are either unemployed or work on seasonal small-scale agriculture. The social and economic costs of the failure to include the youth in Rwanda's development can be vast and can profoundly affect the well-being of society and the ability of Rwanda's economy to grow at a rate that reduces poverty. Going forward, the Bank will provide analytic support in the area of youth employment, with a potential financing operation envisaged for the new CAS. 25. The Bank-supported demobilization, reinsertion and reintegration program for former combatants and government soldiers as well as their families progresses well, but challenges remain with respect to economic reintegration and pre-discharge orientation. 6 About 29,000 ex-combatants of the Rwandan Defense Forces and armed group members plus their dependents received reinsertion and/or reintegration support. Going forward, the focus will be to provide for economic reintegration as well as to increase the provision of trauma counseling during pre-discharge orientation and strengthen gender-related issues. IV. Adjustments to the CAS, Partnerships and Progress in Implementation 26. The overall objectives as set out in the CAS remain valid and relevant. While this CAS PR proposes no major changes to the CAS program, it proposes increased efforts in some areas in order to respond adequately to the changes in context and remaining challenges discussed above. The following section presents: (i) proposed CAS program adjustments, including enhanced collaboration within the WBG and support to the new capacity strengthening approach; (ii) proposed changes in partnership arrangements, including the DOL, use of trust funds, regional projects and the CPAF; and (iii) progress on the implementation of the CAS program, including updates to the results framework. A. CAS Program Adjustments 27. In order better to align support to Rwanda's strategic investments plan, efforts are underway to deepen WBG collaboration. With the exception of two out of six strategic investments--the regional railway and the airport--the realization of the investments plan is well underway. Two investments--energy rollout and ICT--are supported by ongoing IDA projects. None of the other investments currently receive any direct IDA financing, although there is indirect support such as the feasibility studies for the railway done by AfDB. Nevertheless, the WBG strives to make sure its activities are aligned with the key objectives of the strategic investments plan. In particular, the WBG is focusing on support that can leverage the resulting enhanced investments in physical infrastructure. During a June 2010 private sector development retreat, IDA, IFC and MIGA agreed on proposed focus sub-sectors on the basis of potential impact on export growth, jobs creation, and contribution to GDP growth. As a follow-up, in November 2010, the WBG supported an agribusiness investors' forum to help identify potential investors for Rwanda's horticulture and tea sub-sectors. Annex 5 shows the alignment of current IDA, IFC and MIGA activities, the proposed focus sub-sectors and cross-cutting issues. 28. The Bank will support Government's new strategic approach to capacity strengthening. The Bank has been engaged in the preparation of the approach and is currently exploring options to support its implementation across all sectors through trust funds and the potential use of IDA16 resources in the next CAS. It has also commenced new diagnostic work to help the Government identify structural civil service-wide constraints that continue to impede the development of sustainable institutional arrangements in Rwanda. Instead of pursuing the idea of a capacity building filter attached to individual project preparation, as originally envisaged by the CAS, the Bank will support the new initiative with its potential to leverage a more strategic approach to capacity strengthening across the board. The Bank will also explore opportunities to support the building of capacity of civil society and private sector actors. These efforts come in addition to other efforts to strengthen capacity, for example the 2010 approval of Rwanda as the first pilot country for the use of country procurement systems. B. Partnership Arrangements 29. The CAS priorities and the planned program for the rest of the CAS period are fully aligned with the DOL. The CAS focus on agricultural production and basic infrastructure 7 services (in energy, transport and ICT) is fully aligned with the Bank's sectors of engagement under the DOL. The Bank will remain focused on a limited number of sectors in the spirit of the DOL and based on the Government's request. Ongoing lending activities in the health sector, which is not a Bank sector under the DOL, will not be succeeded by new investment projects in the sector, though Bank support may continue through technical assistance associated with the PRSF series in cases where the Bank and the Government agree that such support should exist. IDA projects in skills development, youth employment, private sector and any other cross- cutting areas are exempt from the DOL. The Bank also remains a silent partner in social protection. Furthermore, providers of general budget support are in principle free to take part in any sector dialogue and the Bank on a demand basis may continue to provide technical and policy support in any sector. Given Rwanda's Vision 2020 objectives of private sector led development, there are no constraints on the sectors in which MIGA or IFC can engage. 30. In order to improve further the alignment of the Bank's program with the DOL and the CAS priorities, this CAS PR proposes a more explicit strategy for the deployment of trust funds in Rwanda. Since FY02, about 42 Bank-administered trust funds (among 21 trust fund programs) have been active in Rwanda. Together these trust funds disbursed about US$295 million in FY07-09 and even exceeded IDA disbursements in FY09. About 91 percent of disbursements during this time came from two large vertical funds, namely the Global Fund for Aids, Tuberculosis, and Malaria--in which the Bank serves solely as the trustee--and the Education for All Fast-Track Initiative. There is a strong need for the Bank to consolidate its oversight of trust funds and ensure that they are closely aligned with the overall country program and consistent with DOL arrangements. One future prerequisite for the use of trust funds in Rwanda will be their inclusion in the country program's annual budget plan. Annex 7 provides examples of the preferred use of trust funds as well as a menu of options for task teams on the fit of various trust fund programs with the CAS. 31. A new approach might be needed in connection with support under regional projects that include Rwanda. As mentioned above, the Government has recently questioned the development effectiveness of regional projects due to their complexity as well as the fact that they invariably require timely alignment of multi-country objectives in order to be implemented expeditiously. Rwanda thus favors approaches to regional projects that cascade down Regional Economic Communities (REC), and thus have REC-wide commitment, as opposed to multi- country approaches that may lack the commitment of one or more of the countries in the regional project. An approach to be explored during the rest of the CAS period is to pursue regional projects only if they are based on clear demand within the EAC. 32. It remains challenging to balance the CPAF process with the Bank's policy requirements on development policy lending. Formulation of CPAF indicators and policy actions takes place in the Sector Working Groups (SWGs). While this process has resulted overall in greater participation of development partners in policy discussions and greatly facilitated the reform progress, there is also a significant variation in the quality of CPAF indicators and policy actions that come out of the SWGs. The Bank currently co-chairs, through Rwanda-based sector staff, the agriculture, energy, public financial management and capacity building and employment promotion SWGs. Other SWGs are co-chaired by other donors and have only limited Bank engagement due to the lack of Rwanda-based IDA staff in those sectors. 8 In these latter SWGs, the Bank's emphasis on policy actions (which are the basis for policy- based lending) is not shared by other donors, with the result that CPAF indicators in those sectors tend to be process- and not policy-based. Going forward, the Bank will generally only include, as sectors of focus for the PRSF series, Bank DOL sectors or sectors in which the Bank co-chairs the relevant SWG. The Bank will nevertheless continue to support the overall implementation of the EDPRS and its monitoring through a high quality CPAF. C. Implementation Progress 33. While there have been some slippages in the planned IDA lending program, overall delivery is on track. There have been three minor slippages, including: (i) the Electricity Access Scale-up Project slipped from FY09 to FY10, due to a prolonged discussion on the potential triggering of OP4.10 (Indigenous Peoples); (ii) the Second Emergency Demobilization and Reintegration Program slipped, due to the need to reconfirm the project's financing in the wake of Rwanda's shift to a fifty percent IDA credit/grant share between FY09 and FY10; and (iii) the Additional Financing to the Transport Sector Development Project moved to FY11 from FY10 to allow for more preparation time. The Skills Development Project, on the other hand, was moved forward from FY12 to FY11 based on the Government's increased priority for support in this area. The only dropped project was the IDA Lake Kivu Methane Guarantee; a MIGA guarantee is planned instead. The only project not anticipated in the CAS was the FY11 East Africa Public Health Laboratory Networking Project. Every planned regional project (except the FY09 Communications Infrastructure Project) slipped by at least one fiscal year. Annex 3 presents planned and actual delivery of the CAS program and the remaining pipeline. 34. The current IDA portfolio has nine projects with net commitments of US$237 million. Key sectors include: energy (33 percent); agriculture (29 percent); and private sector development (20 percent). There is one problem project (4 percent), net commitments at risk of US$11 million and one over-age project (more than eight years). The undisbursed balance as of January 2011 was US$144 million. The current IDA operations portfolio is presented in more detail in Annex 9. In addition, a total of three regional projects are active within Rwanda. Most trust funds are programmatic and child trust funds. Rwanda's portfolio performance is good, with key project performance indicators above AFR and Bank-wide averages. 35. IFC's current total exposure in Rwanda is US$28 million in five projects. IFC has invested US$10.5 million in Bakhresa Rwanda to transform wheat grain into wheat flour; US$4 million in the Lake Kivu Methane Gas project; US$2.3 million in Hotel Mille Collines; US$7.3 million in Tourism Promotion Services (operators of the Kigali and Lake Kivu Serena hotels); and US$4.4 million in Intraspeed Rwanda, a regional freight and forwarding company. Thus, IFC's top investments are in agribusiness (37 percent), tourism (34 percent) and transport/ logistics (15 percent). In the financial sector, IFC has signed a local currency swap facility with the Banque Nationale du Rwanda to provide up to US$50 million local currency equivalent for long-term financing (up to 7 years) in Rwandan Francs. A first agreement under this swap facility was signed in November 2010. In FY10, IFC committed a Tier II loan of US$2.1 million to Ecobank Rwanda (EBR) as part of the multi country IFC Capitalization Fund loan to the ETI Group and also approved a US$5.0 million trade finance line to the same Bank. In FY08, IFC approved a US$2.0 million trade finance line for Banque Commerciale du Rwanda (BCR). 9 36. In addition to its investment projects, IFC provides various advisory services. The Investment Climate Reform Project seeks to improve the regulatory environment, build institutions, and attract private sector participation in key sectors; IFC's Credit Reporting program has been working closely with the central bank to develop the legal framework for sharing information and selecting a private credit bureau operator; and its Entrepreneurship Development Program promotes SME competitiveness through building capacity and linkages with larger firms as well as entrepreneurship among youth and women. 37. MIGA's activities consist of guarantees for two private investments in the financial sector, with a major guarantee planned for the energy sector. The current gross exposure is US$17.3 million, including: (i) a US$9.5 million guarantee to ADC IT & Payment Solutions of Mauritius covering its equity investment in the Société Monétique et de Télé-Compensation au Rwanda (SIMTEL); (ii) a U$1.8 million guarantee to ShoreCap International of the Cayman Islands covering its equity investment in Companie Générale de Banque in Rwanda (Cogébanque). The pipeline includes a US$99 million guarantee for ContourGlobal of the United States for its US$139 million equity investment in KivuWatt Ltd. The latter is for the construction and operation of a 100 MW power-generation facility using methane gas from Lake Kivu. The project is currently planned to be in two phases, with the initial phase covering 25 MW of power generation. Potential further investment guarantees in horticulture are forthcoming. 38. This CAS PR provides some updates to the CAS indicators to improve quality and realism of the results matrix. The results matrix with 23 indicators proved relevant to measure the outcomes that the Bank is trying to achieve. CAS outcomes are well aligned to EDPRS objectives, with a majority of indicators directly derived from the CPAF. As already anticipated during CAS preparations, some indicators required updating, due to either: (i) the use of a CPAF indicator, which had since been revised; (ii) a change in program delivery; or (iii) project restructuring. Annex 2 provides an overview of the updated CAS outcome indicators. V. Risks 39. Weak implementation capacity in the central administration continues to be a key risk. The Government continues to seek to address this issue, which arises primarily from constraints in two areas. First, there are significant skills gaps country-wide. The growth diagnostics which informed the EDPRS identify skills shortages, together with weak infrastructure, as one of the two most important obstacles to economic growth. Also, in a 2006 manufacturing survey, 40 percent of firms in Rwanda reported the lack of skilled labor to be a major constraint for doing business. By comparison, only 24 percent of firms in Tanzania and 30 percent of firms in Uganda identified skills as a major or severe constraint. Second, efforts by the Government to determine optimum civil service staffing levels have had impact. Over the past ten years, Rwanda completed extensive civil service reforms characterized by downsizing, restructuring, and pay reform in addition to moving staff to sub-national levels. Over 2004-07, the number of all staff in the central administration was reduced from 2,000 to 500. A 2008-09 functional review indicated possibly inadequate staffing levels for service delivery. For example, the Ministry of Agriculture, with a 2009/10 budget of U$53 million, has only 31 posts, of which a third were vacant in late 2010. As described above, the Bank will support the Government's evolving strategic approach to capacity strengthening and civil service reform. 10 40. Rwanda remains vulnerable to exogenous shocks, including global economic slowdowns. As described above, the global crisis decreased Rwanda's GDP growth by about 7 percentage points between 2008 and 2009. Agriculture was the only sector that performed well during this period, and it remains a key sector in responding to external shocks and adding to GDP growth. To help address the global slowdown, the Bank in FY10 allocated US$29.8 million in additional resources to its Poverty Reduction Support Grant (PRSG) from the IDA pilot Crisis Response Window to protect spending on EPRS priorities in the wake of a reduction in export earnings. In FY08, in the wake of the food and fuel price crisis, the Bank used US$10 million in supplement financing to the PRSG from the Food Price Crisis Response Trust Fund to support a Government program aimed at sustaining food crop production and intensification. The Bank will continue to strive to utilize resources quickly to respond to external shocks. 41. Changes in international perceptions about political governance and human rights in Rwanda may have a negative impact on the flow of development assistance. Commentary in the international media around the August 2010 elections alleged suppression of various political opposition groups and individuals. An August 2010 Amnesty International report alleged that Rwanda's genocide laws are deliberately vague to allow criminalization of dissent.2 In addition, a UN report on events in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) from 1993-2003 alleges acts of brutality by the Rwandan Patriotic Army in the DRC during that decade.3 For several bilateral donors, issues of democratic governance, political and media freedom and equal access to justice are key factors in determining funding levels, including for general budget support, which amounted to about 41 percent of total Government spending in 2009/2010. The Government views these reports as baseless and flawed, pointing, for example, to the numbers of its forces deployed as UN peace-keeping forces across Africa as an indicator of a disciplined force. In addition, Rwanda continues to work on the redrafting of its genocide ideology laws. The Government also remains committed to finalizing the update of the Joint Governance Assessment (JGA) in the near future. To date, no donors have indicated planned reductions in overall assistance, and so the achievement of development outcomes (including the ones supported by the CAS) is not currently at risk. The Bank's support for strengthened governance will continue within the parameters of its 2007 Governance and Anticorruption Strategy, including with regard to supporting the finalization of the JGA, and strengthening capacity of civil society and private sector actors. 2 See Safer to Stay Silent: The Chilling Effect of Rwanda's Laws on `Genocide Ideology' and `Sectarianism', Amnesty International, August 2010. 3 See Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1993-2003: Report of the Mapping Exercise documenting the most serious violations of human rights and international humanitarian law committed within the territory of the Democratic Republic of the Congo between March 1993 and June 2003. United Nations Human Rights Commission, October 2010. 11 Annex 1: Updated Results Framework for the Rwanda CAS FY09-FY12 CAS Outcomes 2010 Status CAS Milestones and Status WBG Program and Indicators CAS Outcome 1.1 Agricultural At least 1,400 additional ha of irrigated IDA Ongoing: production--particularly for food crops-- marshlands have been rehabilitated or developed RSSP II (FY08) sustainably raised by 2010 (EDPRS/PSTA indicator). On track. Land Husbandry, Water [1,040 additional ha were developed by October Harvesting & Hillside Production of rice in targeted marshlands On track. [9,052 tons 2010 - 4,150 ha total from the 2008 baseline of Irrigation (FY10) increased by at least 100% by 2012 by October 2010 with 3,110 ha.] Integrated Management of relative to the baseline (8,757 tons). only few marshlands At least 4,200 additional hectares of hillsides Eco-Systems ­ GEF (FY05) [Updated Baseline.] under production.] have been sustainably developed by 2010 PRSF series (EDPRS/PSTA indicator). Off track. [2,828 At least 50% of farmers in targeted areas On track. [No progress additional ha were developed by October 2010 - IDA Pipeline: have adopted sustainable marshland or on indicator value but 17,313 ha from the 2008 baseline of 14,485 ha.] Regional: Lake Victoria hillside intensification technologies by related activities are on Milestones to increase farmer access to finance. Env. Management (FY11) 2012 (2008 baseline 25%). track.] Achieved [The PRSG series supported the Agriculture Additional operationalization of a microfinance credit Financing (FY12) Increase in use of Mineral Fertilizer from On track. [27,906 MT fund.] 14,000 MT in 2006 to 47,600 MT in of fertilizer used in Extension Strategy fully operationalized in 30 Others (IFC & Trust 2011/2012. [Revised CPAF Indicator] 2009/10.] districts by 2009. Not Applicable. [According Funds): to PRSGV, Belgium took the lead to support GAFSP additional financing extension services.] to LWH (FY10) A charter for fertilizer importers/wholesalers, USAID/CIDA additional dealers, retailers is developed in Rwanda by financing to LWH (FY11) 2009. Achieved. [PRSGVI supported the IFC investment in Bakhresa development of an action plan for a private sector-led fertilizer distribution system.] AAA: Common SLM Programmatic Framework Multi-year Agricultural Roadmap and Country SLM Investment Policy TA (FY08 ­ FY12) Framework (CSIF) developed by 2010. Sustainable Land [TerrAfrica indicator ­ status unclear.] Management (TerrAfrica; FY10) Regional Agriculture Research TA (FY09) Other Donors: IFAD, EC, Belgium, AfDB, UK, US, Netherlands, Japan CAS Outcome 1.2 Improved access to and Transport: IDA Ongoing: quality of key infrastructure services 83 km of the Kigali-Ruhengeri section of Transport Sector Transport: Kigali-Gisenyi road rehabilitated. On track. Development Project 50% of paved roads in good condition Achieved [72.9% of [Rehabilitation work is underway.] (FY08) incl. Africa 12 CAS Outcomes 2010 Status CAS Milestones and Status WBG Program and Indicators (average IRI less than 4m/km) by 2012 up paved roads were in 550 km of paved trunk roads maintained by Catalytic Growth Fund from 23% in 2007. good condition as of 2011. N/A [Indicator not available.] PRSF series June 2010.] Complete and adopt the Transport Master Plan Regional: East Africa Trade Population having access to paved roads Achieved. [Kigali (TMP) by 2010. (CPAF policy action.) Not and Transport Facilitation o Kigali: from 59% in 2005 to 69% in 70%; Butare 47% as of achieved. [Completion and adoption of the Project (FY06) 2009 and onwards; December 2009.] TMP is a FY12 CPAF policy action.] o Huye: from 12% in 2005 to 22% in Complete District/Rural Road Condition IDA Pipeline: 2009 and onwards. Inventory by 2009 (CPAF policy action). Transport Sector Dev Partially achieved. [Road condition inventory Additional Financing for all classified district roads has been (FY11) completed in 2009/2010. However, no data has Transport Project (FY12) been collected for rural roads.] PRSG/F series Implementation of priority district/rural road Regional: East African maintenance program launched by end 2009. Transport Links (FY12) Achieved. [Program was launched and implementation is ongoing.] Others (IFC): IFC investment in Intraspeed Rwanda Other Donors: AfDB, China, EC Energy: Energy: IDA Ongoing: Reduction of unplanned outages Achieved. [As of end- Jabana Thermal power plant (20 MW) in service Electricity Access (FY10) (outages in minutes per month) from December 2009 there by 2009. Achieved. [Jabana power plant PRSF series 2,530 to 1,898 from 2009 onwards. has been no load became operational in May 2009] shedding in the Birembo substation completed and in service by IDA Pipeline: Electrogaz Network.] 2009. Achieved [Birembo substation was Energy Additional 120,000 additional households On track. [Number completed in 2009 and is in service.] Financing (FY12) connected to electricity by 2012 (2006 of electricity SWAP in the energy sector in place and first Regional: East Africa Power Baseline 91,332) (CPAF). subscriptions was investment prospects financed by 2009. Market (FY12) 159,516 in October Achieved. [SWAP MOU signed in July 2008 Regional: Rusumo Falls 2010 with goal to and investment prospects signed.] Hydro (FY12) reach 270,000 in Improved tariff structure in place (i.e. eliminates PRSF series 2011/12.] cross-subsidies from water, reflects cost structure of electricity, and differentiates Others (IFC, MIGA & between different customer types) by end 2009. Trust Funds): Not Achieved. [Tariff study on improved tariff Urgent Electricity structure is still ongoing.] Rehabilitation GEF (FY09) Billing to supply ratio raised from 78% to 84% IFC Lake Kivu Investment from 2009 onwards. N/A [Indicator not Project (FY TBD) available.] MIGA Guarantee to 13 CAS Outcomes 2010 Status CAS Milestones and Status WBG Program and Indicators ContourGlobal/KivuWatt Ltd. (planned FY11) Other Donors: EC, AfDB Netherlands, Belgium, GTZ ICT: ICT: IDA Ongoing: ICT composite network coverage On track. [82% Technical, financial and corporate structure of eRwanda (FY06) increased from 75% in 2006 to 100% in national coverage - Backbone system in place by 2010. Achieved. RCIP II (FY09) 2012. 100% in urban areas At least 10 public internet access points and 79% in rural developed by eRwanda by 2010. Achieved. [A Other Donors: areas.] total of 34 access points developed by 2010: 22 SIDA, EC, DfID, USAID, for public usage; 12 for use by local UNDP, Belgium, South Korea governments.] Price of wholesale international E1 capacity link decreased by 20% by 2010. Achieved. [28% reduction ­ from US$10,000 in 2008 to US$7,200 in 2010] CAS Outcome 1.3. Improved environment IDA Ongoing: for private sector development Competitiveness and Financial Sector Financial Sector Enterprise Dev. & International Financial and Reporting On track. [ICPAR ICPAR assisted in implementing new Additional Financing Standards implemented by all financial will be responsible for accounting law and standards by 2010. (FY08) institutions by 2012. disseminating the Partially achieved. [ICPAR was created in PRSF series IFRS. See milestone.] early 2009, and started to organize training on Time to process a check reduced from 3 On track. [Rwanda auditing and standards. Its capacity is still very IDA Pipeline: days (2008) to 1 day in 2012. Integrated Payment low.] PRSF series Processing System Automated clearing house (ACH) and Real (RIPPS) is scheduled Time Gross Settlement implemented to Others (IFC& MIGA): to go live in December modernize the payment system by 2010. IFC Leasing Development 2010. RIPSS will Achieved. [The ACH and RTGS will be under Program (FY 07) contribute to the RIPPS which is expected to go live in IFC investment in Hotel accelerating check December 2010.] Milles Collines processing. ] Leasing Law amendment adopted by cabinet by IFC investment in Tourism Business Environment 2009 (IFC). N/A [Awaiting IFC input.] Promotion Services Number of days required to obtain a On track. [210 days 8 Financial Institutions launching leasing IFC investment in Ecobank construction license reduced from 275 in 2009.] products by 2009 (IFC). N/A [Awaiting IFC FIRST Initiative: second days (2007) to 180 by 2012 (IFC). input.] Phase (FY09) Time required to export reduced from 60 Achieved. [38 Days Business Environment MIGA Guarantees for 3 days (2007) to 40 days in 2012 (IFC). in 2009.] Licensing system simplified by reducing the private investments in number of overall licenses from more than 300 financial sector (SIMTEL, in 2008 to 250 by 2010 (IFC). Achieved. [The Cogébanque) 14 CAS Outcomes 2010 Status CAS Milestones and Status WBG Program and Indicators number of licenses was 185 as of October MIGA Guarantees for 2010.] horticulture investments 14 Commercial Laws updated in line with (planned FY11-12) international best practice by 2010. Partially achieved. [11 out of 14 laws have been updated AAA: as of October 2010. The Competition and Financial Sector Consumer Protection Law; Draft bill on Assessment Program provisions applicable on privately financed (FSAP) update (FY11) infrastructure and the Contract Law are still in Multi-year Just-in-time the process of being updated.] Policy Notes (FY09-12) Employment and Growth Policy Note (FY11) Study on EAC (FY11) Investment Climate Assessment (FY09) Advisory Services IFC: Entrepreneurship and SME Development Program Investment Climate Reform Program Efficient Securities Markets Institutional Development (ESMID) Credit Reporting program Privatization of Rwanda Air Other Donors AfDB, DfID, USAID, Netherlands Skills Development Skills Development Ongoing: Primary school pupil to qualified teacher Off Track. [68:1 in National Skills Development Policy, including a PRSF series ratio reduced from 73:1 in 2006 to 61:1 2010 versus 67:1 in Post-Basic Education policy in place by 2010. PSCBP (FY05) in 2012 (CPAF). 2008.] Achieved. [Education Sector Strategic Plan for Transition from basic education (TC) to On track. [90.2% in 2010-2015 finalized in 2010.] IDA Pipeline: upper secondary education raised from 2009.] National Skills audit completed by 2009. Skills Development (FY11) 82% in 2006 to 92% in 2012 (CPAF). Achieved. [Skills audit completed in 2009.] PRSF series Skills Development indicator TBD as 3,000 teachers hired on contract basis until part of the planned ESW and the new TDM adopted. Not achieved. [2,000 teachers Others (IFC): operation. [Will insert once developed.] hired by 2008, but only 750 in early 2009.] IFC Africa Schools Rwanda Develop and cost Teacher Development and Program (FY09) 15 CAS Outcomes 2010 Status CAS Milestones and Status WBG Program and Indicators Management (TDM) Strategic Plan by 2010. Achieved. [TDM was adopted in 2009.] Other Donors Targets for classrooms rehabilitation and AfDB, DfID, Belgium, constructions under EFA FTI financing met. Netherlands, UNICEF, EC Achieved. [Increase in classroom constructions from 2,315 in 2008 to 3,076 in 2010.] Targets for procured textbooks under EFA FTI financing met. Achieved. [Purchase and distribution of over 1.6 million textbooks between 200-2010.] Targets for trained teachers under EFA FTI financing met. Achieved. [Exact targets were not available, but EFA-FTI contributed to increase in training of teachers, inspectors, directors and parent teacher associations.] CAS Outcome 1.4 Capacity to manage Overall effectiveness/service delivery IDA Ongoing: public resources­at central and local Increased number of MDAs that have service PSCBP (FY05) levels--strengthened delivery directories published. Achieved. [21 MDTF for PFM Reforms Proportion of audited public agencies On track. [Awaiting out of 40 in 2010 from zero in 2008.] (FY05) receiving unqualified public audit OAG update on this MIFOTRA agrees with all PRSG ministries on PRSF series opinions increased from 1.7% in 2009 to indicator.] staffing levels and ministerial structures for DCDP (FY04) 7% in 2011. [Revised Indicator] optimal performance within fiscal limits. E-Rwanda (FY07) Proportion of the value of procurement Achieved. [100% of the Achieved. Statistics for Results (FY10) tendered competitively or justified value of procurement increased from 86% in 2008 to 89% in tendered competitively PFM IDA Pipeline: FY12 (CPAF). [Revised Indicator] or justified in Increased number of budget agencies that PRSF series Finalization of a new national payment 2009/2010.] produce annual financial statements within and retention policy by 2011. [New On track. [Policy stipulated timeframe. Achieved. [In 2009 100% Others (Trust Funds) Indicator] expected to be drafted, of budget agencies produced statements ­ 56% Economic Empowerment of endorsed by key on time from 17% in 2008.] Young Women ­ Adolescent stakeholders and Number of projects from the district Growth Initiative adopted by Cabinet in development plans implemented under the Social Risk Management of 2011.] DCDP (disaggregated by type). On track. Climate Change [Select facilities built or rehabilitated by type under the project are: health: 11; classrooms: AAA: Percentage of Districts which achieve a On track. [67% in 420; Water tanks: 131 etc.] Public Expenditure minimum of 80% of their service delivery 2009/10.] Management (Multi-year) and sustainable local development targets Capacity Building (FY11) for which they are responsible as assessed by/in the IMIHIGO assessment report Other Donors: increased from 60% in 2006 to 75% in DFID, UNDP, Belgium, GTZ, 2012 (CPAF). [Revised Indicator.] SIDA, USAID 16 CAS Outcomes 2010 Status CAS Milestones and Status WBG Program and Indicators CAS Outcome 2.1 Significant health and Maternal and Child Health IDA Ongoing: social risks--to vulnerable groups and to Pilot reducing ticket modérateur and introducing CLSG series including social cohesion in Rwanda--are mitigated conditional cash transfers for children less than 5 Health Results Innovation and pregnant women by 2010. Achieved. [As Trust Fund Maternal and Child Health of October 2010 a pilot initiative removing ticket PRSF series Achieved. [66.2% in modérateur for children under five has been RDRP2 (FY10) % of assisted births in an accredited 2009. Indicator to be implemented in two health centers in two health facility increased from 28% in verified through the districts. Pregnant women are exempted from IDA Pipeline: 2006 to at least 60% in 2012 (CPAF). 2010 DHS.] paying the ticket modérateur.] PRSF series Per capita allocation to Performance Based Financing (PBF) for health facilities and AAA: community health cooperatives reaches US$2.25 Rwanda Health Study (FY08) by 2010 (CPAF). Not Achieved. [US$1.85 in Human Resources for Health 2009. Expected improvements in this indicator (FY08) due to scale-up of the community PBF in 150 Social Protection Study sectors by end-2010.] (FY08) Youth and Gender in post- Social Protection/Implementation of Vision Social Protection/Implementation of Vision 2020 conflict (FY08) 2020 Umurenge program Umurenge program Social Risk Management of Percentage of eligible households granted On track. [91% of Participatory Assessment is completed by end Climate Change (FY11) public works in a sample of VUP pilot eligible households 2009 of whether income-generating activities, Youth Employment Study Sectors is 35% each year in 2008-12. were employed in direct support, public works and micro credits (FY12) (CPAF) [Revised Indicator.] 2009/10.] have been successful. Partially achieved. [M&E On Demand Policy Notes in survey was conducted and report is being the Social Sectors (TBD) Reintegration of ex-combatants finalized. The survey was not participatory.] Up to 26,675 RDF and 11,292 Armed On track. [22,675 Lessons of VUP pilot in 30 sectors are Other Donors: Group members and dependents received RDF ex-combatants and incorporated and extended to at least another 60 UNICEF, Belgium, DFID, reinsertion and/or reintegration support by 6,292 Armed groups ex- sectors by end 2009. Achieved. [Lesson have Germany, USAID, SIDA 2012. [Updated Indicator.] combatants received been incorporated and extended to 90 sectors.] reinsertion and Procedures for identifying vulnerable households, reintegration benefits by mode and amount of social assistance transfers end 2008.] and public works implemented by end 2009. Achieved. [Procedures have been agreed, incorporated in operational manuals for each of the VUP components and are being implemented.] 17 Annex 2: Updated and Revised CAS Outcome Indicators Original CAS Indicators Updated and Revised Indicators CAS Outcome 1.1 Agricultural production--particularly for food crops--sustainably raised Production of rice in targeted marshlands Updated: The baseline is 8,757 tons instead of increased by at least 100% by 2012 relative to 2,340 tons. A 100% increase by 2012 is the baseline (2,340 tons). equivalent to 17,514 tons. 25% of farmers using chemical fertilizer by Updated: Increase in use of Mineral Fertilizer 2012 up from 12% in 2006 (CPAF indicator). from 14,000 MT in 2006 to 47,600 MT in 2011/12 (Revised CPAF indicator). CAS Outcome 1.2 Improved access to and quality of key infrastructure services Rural access indicator to be determined as part Dropped. Project was moved to FY12. of the FY10 Rural Roads project. CAS Outcome 1.3. Improved environment for private sector development Primary school pupil to qualified teacher ratio Updated: Primary school pupil to qualified reduced from 72.7:1 in 2006 to 56:1 in 2012 teacher ratio reduced from 73:1 in 2006 to 61:1 (CPAF). in 2012 (revised CPAF target). Skills Development indicator TBD as part of New: [Once project results framework is the planned ESW and the new operation. further advanced.] CAS Outcome 1.4 Capacity to manage public resources­at central and local levels--strengthened No. of targeted institutions that achieve at Dropped. least 80% of their target outputs. No. of budget agencies use internal capacity to Revised: Proportion of audited public agencies prepare and publish audited financial receiving unqualified public audit opinions statements with unqualified audit opinions. increased from 1.7% in 2009 to 7% in 2011. No. of budget agencies with satisfactory Revised: Proportion of the value of procurement compliance with national procurement tendered competitively or justified increased policies and rules. from 86% in 2008 to 89% in 2011/12 (CPAF indicator). New: Finalization of a new national payand retention policy by 2011. 100% of Districts able to produce Revised: Percentage of Districts which achieve consolidated reporting on spending on an a minimum of 80% of their service delivery and annual basis (i.e. on resources both from sustainable local development targets for which transfers and on own revenue) from 2009 they are responsible as assessed by/in the onwards up from 0% in 2007. IMIHIGO assessment report increased from 60% in 2006 to 75% in 2012 (CPAF indicator). CAS Outcome 2.1 Significant health and social risks--to vulnerable groups and to social cohesion in Rwanda--are mitigated % of under five children using Insecticide Dropped: Indicator is not supported by Bank Treated Long Lasting mosquito nets increases program. In addition, health is no longer a Bank from 16% in 2006 to 85% in 2012 (CPAF). priority under the DOL. Percentage of vulnerable men, women and Revised: Percentage of households granted children assisted through safety net schemes public works in a sample of VUP pilot Sectors is raised from 12% in 2006 to 20% in 2012. 35% each year in 2008-12. (CPAF) Up to 28,500 former Rwandan Armed Groups, Updated: Up to 26,675 RDF and 11,292 Armed RDF and dependents received reinsertion and/ Group members and dependents received or reintegration support by 2011. reinsertion and/or reintegration support by 2012. 18 Annex 3: IDA Lending Program Fiscal Original CAS Program Original IDA Revised Program Revised IDA Amount Year Amount (US$ million) (US$ million) National Regional CRW 2009 Poverty Reduction Strategy Grant (PRSG) V 70.0 Actual 80.0 - - Health /Social Protection DPL 6.0 Actual (CLSG I) 6.0 - - Electricity Access Roll-Out 40.0 FY10 (Electricity Access Scale-up and SWAp Development Project) - - - Lake Kivu Methane Guarantee 5.0 Dropped - - - Rwanda Demobilization and Reintegration Program 8.0 FY10 - - - Regional: Communications Infrastructure Project 8.0 Actual 8.0 16.0 - Total 137.0 94.0 16.0 - 2010 PRSG VI 86.0 Actual 86.0 - 29.0 Land Harvesting Water Management and Hillside Irrigation 35.0 Actual 34.0 - - Transport Sector Development Project AF 25.0 FY11 - - - Rural Roads 25.0 FY12 (Transport Sector Project) - - - Regional: East Africa Road Network 8.0 FY12 (East Africa Transport Links) - - - Regional: Lake Victoria 7.0 FY11 - - - Additional Actuals: Second Emergency Demobilization and Reintegration Program (from FY09) 8.0 - - Electricity Access Roll-Out (from FY09) 70.0 - - Community Living Standards Grant (CLSG) II* 6.0 - - Regional: East Africa Public Health Laboratory (not in CAS) 5.0 10.0 - Total 186.0 209.0 10.0 29.0 2011 PRSF VII** 80.0 Planned 104.4 - - Regional: Rusumo Falls Hydro 10.0 FY12 - - - Regional: East Africa Power Mark et 4.0 FY12 - - - Additional Planned: Transport Sector Development Project AF (from FY10) 11.0 - - Skills Development Project (from FY12) 30.0 - - Community Living Standards Grant (CLSG) III* 6.0 - - Regional: Lake Victoria (from FY10) 5.0 10.0 - Total 95.0 156.4 10.0 - IDA 15 Total 418.0 459.4 36.0 29.0 2012 PRSF VIII 70.0 Planned 70.0 - - Agriculture (Additional Financing) 30.0 Planned 30.0 - - Energy (Additional Financing) 30.0 Planned 30.0 - - Skills Development 10.0 FY11 - - - Additional Planned: Transport Sector Project (from FY10 Rural Roads) 40.0 - - Regional: East Africa Transport Links (from FY10) 8.0 16.0 - Regional: Rusumo Falls Hydro (from FY11) 10.0 20.0 - Regional: East Africa Power Market (from FY11) 6.0 12.0 - Total 140.0 194.0 48.0 * Planned to be merged with PRSG in the CAS, but remained standalone. ** Due to the move of Rwanda to an IDA blend country, the FY11 PRSF consists of a credit/grant mix rather than 100 percent grant financing. 19 Annex 4: IDA Analytic Program Fiscal Year Analytic and Advisory Activities by CAS Theme 2009 Cross-Cutting Multi-year Public Expenditure Management TA Multi-year Just-in-time Policy Notes (Finance/PSD) Promote Economic Transformation and Growth Multi-year Agriculture Policy TA Investment Climate Assessment Regional Agriculture Research TA Reduce Social Vulnerability Multi-year Education Policy Analysis Health Study 2010 Cross-Cutting Multi-year Public Expenditure Management TA Multi-year Just-in-time Policy Notes (Finance/PSD) Promote Economic Transformation and Growth Multi-year Agriculture Policy TA Sustainable Land Management TA Reduce Social Vulnerability Multi-year Education Policy Analysis Education Country Status Report Social Protection Study 2011 Cross-Cutting Multi-year Public Expenditure Management TA Multi-year Just-in-time Policy Notes (Finance/PSD) Poverty Monitoring TA Promote Economic Transformation and Growth Multi-year Agriculture Policy TA Sustainable Land Management TA Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) update Employment and Growth Policy Note Capacity Building Regional EAC Study Reduce Social Vulnerability Multi-year Education Policy Analysis Post-Basic Education Study Social Risk Management of Climate Change 2012 Cross-Cutting Multi-year Public Expenditure Management TA Multi-year Just-in-time Policy Notes (Finance/PSD) Youth Employment Study Promote Economic Transformation and Growth Multi-year Agriculture Policy TA Reduce Social Vulnerability On Demand Policy Notes in the Social Sectors Multi-year Education Policy Analysis Social Safet Nets Strengthening TA 20 Annex 5: WBG Collaboration 1. Leveraging of WBG programs IDA IFC MIGA Ongoing and planned programs Ongoing and planned programs in: Ongoing and planned in: Investment climate reform ­ aimed programs in: Agriculture ­ aimed at at increased investments, exports and Investment promotion increased productivity and employment linked to horticulture ­targeting of investors diversification including and Special Economic Zones, the and supporting with respect to horticulture; level of Small and Medium investment projects in Energy ­ aimed at increased Enterprise tax revenues, and priority sectors access; increased access to finance for including energy and Transport ­ aimed at the SMEs; agribusiness; rehabilitation of rural/feeder Entrepreneurship development ­ PPP origination. and main roads; transport supporting the growth and links with EAC. competitiveness of SMEs and helping develop local entrepreneurs. 2. Focus sub-sectors Horticulture (fruits and vegetables): High potential impact on trade balance, jobs creation and high demand in global/regional markets. Sector aligns well with ongoing support in agriculture and WBG is well placed to address remaining constraints including infrastructure (transport and energy) and investment environment. Construction Materials: High potential impact on trade balance, jobs creation and high local demand. High prospect for investors from East Africa. Tea: High potential impact on trade balance, jobs creation and high demand in global markets (but lower in regional/local markets). Favorable investor prospects and relatively few barriers of entry. Mining: The WBG also agreed to provide catalytic support at the margins for mining as a sector with a potentially high future impact. This includes technical assistance for implementation of a framework for negotiations of production sharing and concession arrangements. 3. Cross-cutting issues Support to the implementation of Government's SME strategy. Work program to be undertaken by IDA, Investment Climate Advisory Services and IFC advisory services. A more holistic focus on access to finance. Work program to be led by IDA. A concerted focus on post harvest and transport logistic. Work program to be led by IDA. Acceleration of WBG work in the areas of tax reforms, land use programs and Special Economic Zones. Work program to be led by Investment Climate Advisory Services. Support for the strengthening of the PPP institutional framework including WBG assistance in identifying a PPP pipeline. Work program to be led by IDA. 21 Annex 6: Rwanda Division of Labor Education Health & Population Social Protection Employment Youth, Sports & Culture Transport & ICT Energy Water & Sanitation Agriculture Forestry, Land & Environment farm industry Manufacturing services & off Decentralization/CDF Order Justice, Reconciliation, Law & Belgium S X X X S Canada S X Germany X S X X Japan X S S X X Netherlands S X X X Sweden X X X UK X S X X US X X X AfDB S X X X EC S X X X WB S X X X Switzerland X X France X X Austria X Luxembourg X FAO X X ILO X UNDP S X X X UNEP S UNESCO S S UNFPA X S X UNHCR S UNHabitat S S UNICEF X X X S X S S UNIDO X X UN Women S WFP X X X S IFAD X S WHO X S S UNECA X UNCDF S S represents silent partnerships X represents internal UN Lead 22 Annex 7: Use of Trust Funds in Rwanda 1. Budget support for Government designed programs: Trust funds designed as budget support operations that directly finance Government priorities have proven successful in Rwanda. Examples include: EFA-FTI Catalytic Fund: Considered to be a good model for the use of a large vertical fund. The traditional use of the trust fund was adjusted to allow disbursement through country systems (as budget support). The program was country-owned and financed directly government's education plans. Management of the EFA-FTI was taken over by DfID due to the Bank's stricter requirements for management of large trust funds, but also due to education being a DfID priority sector. Global Food Price Crisis Response Program: Supplemental financing to the PRSG series in order to support private sector participation in fertilizer distribution. Health Results Based Financing: Supplemental Financing to the CLSG DPO, which financed a pilot to test performance-based financing for interventions with high impact on child and maternal health at the village level. However, the trust fund proved somewhat inflexible for a proposed integration into PRSG series and was a key reason why the CLSG DPO had to remain standalone. 2. Co-Financing for IDA investment projects: Trust funds that co-finance IDA investment operations can in many cases be pivotal to the viability of the IDA program. Examples include: Africa Catalytic Growth Fund (ACGF): The trust fund provides crucial financing to the ongoing Transport Sector Development Project with only US$11 million from the IDA envelope and US$38 million from the ACGF. Multi-Country Demobilization and Reintegration Program (MDRP): The MDRP provided vital co-financing to the IDA program with about 50 percent of resources. The MDRP was one of only two country-specific multi-donor trust funds in Rwanda (together with the PFM fund). Closed in 2009 and transitioned into the Transitional Demobilization and Reintegration Program (TDRP). GAFSP, United States and Canada Co-Financing to LWH: The LWH project was one of the first Bank operations to benefit from the Global Agriculture and Food Security Program (GAFSP) with the award of US$50 million additional financing in June 2010. The project assisted with the development of a common framework for engagement, which so far resulted in co-financing commitments from the United States and Canada. 3. Financing of Analytic Work and Project preparation: Trust Funds can provide important resources on top of the available Bank budget to finance analytical work and project preparation. However, trust funds should not be used to finance analytical work that is not funded from Bank budget and therefore does not fall within the CAS priorities. Examples (good and bad) include: Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development: The trust fund financed a study to examine program design and choices to implement the VUP (social protection) agenda. The work was done simultaneously with the preparation of the IDA CLSG and provided the analytic foundation for that development policy operation. Trust Funds that finance global studies: Bank-executed trust funds for global studies and surveys do not usually fall within the CAS, require substantial effort by high-level government officials and are considered to provide no benefits to the country. Missions for these kinds of studies are often conducted without transparency or knowledge by country management and there is no follow-up in- country about the findings of these studies. 4. Technical Assistance: Trust funds can be very useful if they provide highly specialized technical assistance. They are not widely used in Rwanda, but one example includes: Financial Sector Reform Strengthening Initiative (FIRST): Six grants were made available to provide to support the Financial Sector Development Plan, microfinance, supervisory capacity, crisis preparedness, and banking. FIRST consultants brought expertise and knowledge of the literature and experience of other countries, combined with high respect for the national perspective. 23 Annex 8: Selected Indicators of Portfolio Performance and Management As Of Date 1/12/2011 Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 Portfolio Assessment Number of Projects Under Implementation a 11 11 12 9 Average Implementation Period (years) b 4.2 4.1 3.2 3.6 Percent of Problem Projects by Number a, c 0.0 18.2 16.7 11.1 Percent of Problem Projects by Amount a, c 0.0 13.4 11.4 4.6 Percent of Projects at Risk by Number a, d 0.0 18.2 16.7 11.1 Percent of Projects at Risk by Amount a, d 0.0 13.4 11.4 4.6 Disbursement Ratio (%) e 47.4 30.1 35.4 11.9 Portfolio Management CPPR during the year (yes/no) yes no yes no Memorandum Item Since FY 80 Last Five FYs Proj Eval by OED by Number 51 6 Proj Eval by OED by Amt (US$ millions) 1,188.4 223.9 % of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Number 45.1 50.0 % of OED Projects Rated U or HU by Amt 31.0 44.7 a. As shown in the Annual Report on Portfolio Performance (except for current FY). b. Average age of projects in the Bank's country portfolio. c. Percent of projects rated U or HU on development objectives (DO) and/or implementation progress (IP). d. As defined under the Portfolio Improvement Program. e. Ratio of disbursements during the year to the undisbursed balance of the Bank's portfolio at the beginning of the year: Investment projects only. * All indicators are for projects active in the Portfolio, with the exception of Disbursement Ratio, which includes all active projects as well as projects which exited during the fiscal year. 24 Annex 9: IDA Operations Portfolio As Of Date 1/12/2011 Closed Projects 67 IBRD/IDA Total Disbursed (Active) 88.71 of w hich has been repaid 0.00 Total Disbursed (Closed) 795.49 of w hich has been repaid 53.59 Total Disbursed (Active + Closed) 884.20 of w hich has been repaid 53.59 Total Undisbursed (Active) 136.36 Total Undisbursed (Closed) 2.92 Total Undisbursed (Active + Closed) 139.28 Active Projects Difference Between Last ISR Expected and Actual Supervision Rating Disbursements Development Implementation Project ID Project Name Fiscal Year IDA GRANT Cancel. Undisb. Orig. Frm Rev'd Objectives Progress P097818 RW - Sustainable Energy Dev. Proj (GEF) S S 2010 8.3 6.7 P112712 RW Emergency Demob and Reintegration MS MS 2010 8.0 5.8 1.6 P057295 RW-Compet & Enterprise Dev (FY01) S S 2001 46.8 0.1 3.2 -8.6 -2.6 P070700 RW-GEF Integr. Mgmt. of Critl Ecosystems S S 2005 4.3 1.1 1.1 P066386 RW-Pub Sec CB TAL (FY05) MS MS 2005 20.0 7.9 7.0 P105176 RW-Rural Sector Supt APL2 (FY08) S S 2008 35.0 15.3 9.5 P079414 RW-Transport Sector Development Project MU MU 2008 11.0 8.0 6.6 P114931 RW:Land Husband,Water Harvest,Hill Irrig S S 2010 34.0 31.1 0.8 P111567 Rwanda Electricity Access Scale-up Proj. S S 2010 70.0 65.1 8.3 3.3 Overall Result 224.8 12.6 0.1 144.1 24.6 0.7 25 Annex 10: IFC Program International Finance Corporation Statement of IFC's Committed and Outstanding Portfolio Amounts in US Dollar Millions Accounting Date as of : 12/31/2010 Committed Undisbursed Outstanding Commitment Institution Loan Equity Quasi-Equity* ALL Loan Equity Quasi-Equity ALL Fiscal Year Short Name 2009/ 2010 Bakhresa Rwanda 10.50 0 0 10.50 10.50 0 0 10.50 2007 Intraspeed 0 0 4.40 4.40 0 0 4.40 4.40 2009 Lake Kivu Energy 0 0 4.00 4.00 0 0 0 0 2007 Mille Collines 2.34 0 0 2.34 2.34 0 0 2.34 2008/ 2010/ 2011 TPS (R) 4.35 2.95 0 7.30 3.20 2.95 0 6.15 Total Portfolio 17.19 2.95 8.40 28.54 16.04 2.95 4.40 23.39 * Quasi-Equity includes both equity and loan types 26 Annex 11: Rwanda at a Glance Rwanda at a glance 2/25/10 Sub- Ke y D e v e lo pm e nt Indic a t o rs Saharan Lo w Rwanda A frica inco me Age distribution, 2008 (2008) Male Female P o pulatio n, mid-year (millio ns) 9.7 81 8 973 75-79 Surface area (tho usand sq. km) 26 24,242 9,31 1 0 60-64 P o pulatio n gro wth (%) 2.9 2.5 2.1 Urban po pulatio n (% o f to tal po pulatio n) 18 36 29 45-49 30-34 GNI (A tlas metho d, US$ billio ns) 4.7 885 510 15-19 GNI per capita (A tlas metho d, US$ ) 440 1,082 524 GNI per capita (P P P , internatio nal $ ) ,01 1 0 1 ,991 1,407 0-4 10 5 0 5 10 GDP gro wth (%) 1 1 .2 5.0 6.4 percent of total population GDP per capita gro wth (%) 8.9 2.5 4.2 ( m o s t re c e nt e s t im a t e , 2 0 0 3 ­ 2 0 0 8 ) .25 P o verty headco unt ratio at $ 1 a day (P P P , %) 77 51 .. Under-5 mortality rate (per 1,000) P o verty headco unt ratio at $ 2.00 a day (P P P , %) 90 73 .. Life expectancy at birth (years) 50 52 59 250 Infant mo rtality (per 1,000 live births) 109 89 78 Child malnutritio n (% o f children under 5) 18 27 28 200 5 A dult literacy, male (% o f ages 1 and o lder) .. 71 72 150 5 A dult literacy, female (% o f ages 1 and o lder) .. 54 55 100 Gro ss primary enro llment, male (% o f age gro up) 146 103 102 Gro ss primary enro llment, female (% o f age gro up) 149 93 95 50 0 A ccess to an impro ved water so urce (% o f po pulatio n) 65 58 67 A ccess to impro ved sanitatio n facilities (% o f po pulatio n) 23 31 38 1990 1995 2000 2007 Rwanda Sub-Saharan Africa N e t A id F lo ws 19 8 0 19 9 0 2000 2008 a (US$ millio ns) Net ODA and o fficial aid 154 288 321 713 Growth of GDP and GDP per capita (%) To p 3 do no rs (in 2007): United Kingdo m 0 1 53 95 40 United States 7 13 23 91 20 Euro pean Co mmissio n 21 36 49 79 0 A id (% o f GNI) 13.2 1 .2 1 18.7 21.0 -20 A id per capita (US$ ) 30 40 40 75 -40 Lo ng- T e rm E c o no m ic T re nds -60 95 05 Co nsumer prices (annual % change) 7.2 4.2 3.9 15.4 GDP implicit deflato r (annual % change) 3.1 13.5 -3.0 17.4 GDP GDP per capita Exchange rate (annual average, lo cal per US$ ) 92.8 82.6 389.7 546.9 Terms o f trade index (2000 = 100) .. 78 100 69 19 8 0 ­ 9 0 19 9 0 ­ 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 ­ 0 8 (average annual gro wth %) P o pulatio n, mid-year (millio ns) 5.2 7.2 8.0 9.7 3.2 1.1 2.5 GDP (US$ millio ns) ,1 1 63 2,584 1,735 4,457 2.2 -0.2 6.7 (% o f GDP ) A griculture 45.8 32.5 37.2 37.4 0.5 2.5 3.5 Industry 21.5 24.6 13.6 14.1 2.5 -3.8 8.7 M anufacturing 15.3 18.3 7.0 4.5 2.6 -5.8 5.4 Services 32.6 42.8 49.2 48.5 3.6 -0.9 8.9 Ho useho ld final co nsumptio n expenditure 83.3 83.7 87.7 82.1 1.2 0.4 .. General go v't final co nsumptio n expenditure 12.5 10.1 1 .0 1 10.2 5.2 -2.6 .. Gro ss capital fo rmatio n 16.1 14.6 18.3 24.1 4.3 0.4 .. Expo rts o f go o ds and services 14.4 5.6 8.7 14.9 3.4 -6.4 .. Impo rts o f go o ds and services 26.4 14.1 25.7 31.2 2.6 6.1 .. Gro ss savings 13.3 1 1 .3 12.9 28.3 No te: Figures in italics are fo r years o ther than tho se specified. 2008 data are preliminary. .. indicates data are no t available. a. A id data are fo r 2007. Develo pment Eco no mics, Develo pment Data Gro up (DECDG). 27 Rwanda B a la nc e o f P a ym e nt s a nd T ra de 2000 2008 Governance indicators, 2000 and 2008 (US$ millio ns) To tal merchandise expo rts (fo b) 90 257 To tal merchandise impo rts (cif) 328 881 Voice and accountability Net trade in go o ds and services -291 -727 Political stability Current acco unt balance -90 -244 as a % o f GDP -5.2 -5.5 Regulatory quality Rule of law Wo rkers' remittances and co mpensatio n o f emplo yees (receipts) 7 51 Control of corruption Reserves, including go ld 191 536 0 25 50 75 100 2008 Country's percentile rank (0-100) C e nt ra l G o v e rnm e nt F ina nc e higher values imply better ratings 2000 (% o f GDP ) Current revenue (including grants) 20.2 27.1 Source: Kaufmann-Kraay-Mastruzzi, World Bank Tax revenue 9.7 13.5 Current expenditure 13.2 15.1 T e c hno lo gy a nd Inf ra s t ruc t ure 2000 2008 Overall surplus/deficit 0.8 0.5 P aved ro ads (% o f to tal) 8.3 19.0 Highest marginal tax rate (%) Fixed line and mo bile pho ne Individual .. .. 00 subscribers (per 1 peo ple) 1 14 Co rpo rate .. .. High techno lo gy expo rts (% o f manufactured expo rts) 0.6 16.3 E xt e rna l D e bt a nd R e s o urc e F lo ws E nv iro nm e nt (US$ millio ns) To tal debt o utstanding and disbursed 1,272 679 A gricultural land (% o f land area) 68 79 To tal debt service 35 19 Fo rest area (% o f land area) 13.9 19.5 Debt relief (HIP C, M DRI) 908 225 Natio nally pro tected areas (% o f land area) .. 8.1 To tal debt (% o f GDP ) 73.3 15.2 Freshwater reso urces per capita (cu. meters) ,1 3 11 1,005 To tal debt service (% o f expo rts) 21.4 4.9 Freshwater withdrawal (billio n cubic meters) 0.2 .. Fo reign direct investment (net inflo ws) 8 103 CO2 emissio ns per capita (mt) 0.07 0.07 P o rtfo lio equity (net inflo ws) 0 0 GDP per unit o f energy use (2005 P P P $ per kg o f o il equivalent) .. .. Composition of total external debt, 2008 Energy use per capita (kg o f o il equivalent) .. .. Private, 0 Short-term, 23 IBRD, 0 Bilateral, 90 Wo rld B a nk G ro up po rt f o lio 2000 2008 IDA, 242 (US$ millio ns) IB RD To tal debt o utstanding and disbursed 0 0 Disbursements 0 0 IMF, 11 Other multi- P rincipal repayments 0 0 lateral, 313 Interest payments 0 0 US$ millions IDA To tal debt o utstanding and disbursed 692 242 Disbursements 37 41 P riv a t e S e c t o r D e v e lo pm e nt 2000 2008 To tal debt service 11 2 Time required to start a business (days) ­ 14 IFC (fiscal year) Co st to start a business (% o f GNI per capita) ­ 108.9 To tal disbursed and o utstanding po rtfo lio 2 6 Time required to register pro perty (days) ­ 315 o f which IFC o wn acco unt 2 6 Disbursements fo r IFC o wn acco unt 0 3 Ranked as a majo r co nstraint to business 2000 2008 P o rtfo lio sales, prepayments and (% o f managers surveyed who agreed) repayments fo r IFC o wn acco unt 0 0 Electricity .. 31.8 Tax rates .. 26.9 M IGA Gro ss expo sure ­ 17 Sto ck market capitalizatio n (% o f GDP ) .. .. New guarantees ­ 17 B ank capital to asset ratio (%) 8.1 9.2 No te: Figures in italics are fo r years o ther than tho se specified. 2008 data are preliminary. 2/25/10 .. indicates data are no t available. ­ indicates o bservatio n is no t applicable. Develo pment Eco no mics, Develo pment Data Gro up (DECDG). 28 Millennium Development Goals Rwanda With selected targets to achieve b etween 1990 and 2015 (estimate clo sest to date sho wn, +/- 2 years) R wa nda G o a l 1: ha lv e t he ra t e s f o r e xt re m e po v e rt y a nd m a lnut rit io n 19 9 0 19 9 5 2000 2008 .25 P o verty headco unt ratio at $ 1 a day (P P P , % o f po pulatio n) .. .. 76.6 .. P o verty headco unt ratio at natio nal po verty line (% o f po pulatio n) .. 51.2 60.3 .. Share o f inco me o r co nsumptio n to the po o rest qunitile (%) .. .. 5.3 .. P revalence o f malnutritio n (% o f children under 5) 24.3 .. 20.3 18.0 G o a l 2 : e ns ure t ha t c hildre n a re a ble t o c o m ple t e prim a ry s c ho o ling P rimary scho o l enro llment (net, %) 67 .. 68 94 P rimary co mpletio n rate (% o f relevant age gro up) 37 .. 21 53 Seco ndary scho o l enro llment (gro ss, %) 8 .. 10 22 Yo uth literacy rate (% o f peo ple ages 15-24) 75 .. 78 ... G o a l 3 : e lim ina t e ge nde r dis pa rit y in e duc a t io n a nd e m po we r wo m e n Ratio o f girls to bo ys in primary and seco ndary educatio n (%) 92 .. 96 100 Wo men emplo yed in the no nagricultural secto r (% o f no nagricultural emplo yment) .. 32 33 .. P ro po rtio n o f seats held by wo men in natio nal parliament (%) 17 17 17 56 G o a l 4 : re duc e unde r- 5 m o rt a lit y by t wo - t hirds Under-5 mo rtality rate (per 1 ,000) 195 193 189 103 Infant mo rtality rate (per 1,000 live births) 171 151 131 62 M easles immunizatio n (pro po rtio n o f o ne-year o lds immunized, %) 83 84 74 90 G o a l 5 : re duc e m a t e rna l m o rt a lit y by t hre e - f o urt hs M aternal mo rtality ratio (mo deled estimate, per 1 00,000 live births) .. .. .. 540 B irths attended by skilled health staff (% o f to tal) 26 .. 31 52 Co ntraceptive prevalence (% o f wo men ages 1 5-49) 21 14 13 29 G o a l 6 : ha lt a nd be gin t o re v e rs e t he s pre a d o f H IV / A ID S a nd o t he r m a jo r dis e a s e s P revalence o f HIV (% o f po pulatio n ages 1 5-49) 9.2 7.0 4.7 2.8 Incidence o f tuberculo sis (per 100,000 peo ple) 167 241 348 397 Tuberculo sis cases detected under DOTS (%) .. 34 32 25 G o a l 7 : ha lv e t he pro po rt io n o f pe o ple wit ho ut s us t a ina ble a c c e s s t o ba s ic ne e ds A ccess to an impro ved water so urce (% o f po pulatio n) 65 64 65 65 A ccess to impro ved sanitatio n facilities (% o f po pulatio n) 29 26 25 23 Fo rest area (% o f to tal land area) 12.9 13.4 13.9 19.5 Natio nally pro tected areas (% o f to tal land area) .. .. .. 8.1 CO2 emissio ns (metric to ns per capita) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 GDP per unit o f energy use (co nstant 2005 P P P $ per kg o f o il equivalent) .. .. .. .. G o a l 8 : de v e lo p a glo ba l pa rt ne rs hip f o r de v e lo pm e nt 00 Telepho ne mainlines (per 1 peo ple) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 00 M o bile pho ne subscribers (per 1 peo ple) 0.0 0.0 0.5 13.6 00 Internet users (per 1 peo ple) 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.1 00 P erso nal co mputers (per 1 peo ple) .. .. 0.1 0.3 Education indicators (%) Measles immunization (% of 1-year ICT indicators (per 100 people) olds) 125 100 15 100 75 75 10 50 50 25 5 25 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2007 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Primary net enrollment ratio Fixed + mobile subscribers Ratio of girls to boys in primary & secondary Rwanda Sub-Saharan Africa education Internet users No te: Figures in italics are fo r years o ther than tho se specified. .. indicates data are no t available. 2/25/10 Develo pment Eco no mics, Develo pment Data Gro up (DECDG). 29 29°30'E 30°00'E 30°30'E 31°00'E RWAN D A To Kafunzo 1°00'S Kagitumba SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS AKARERE (DISTRICT) CAPITALS UGANDA To Kikagati INTARA (PROVINCE) CAPITALS Kag NATIONAL CAPITAL era To 0 10 20 30 40 Kilometers RIVERS Kisoro Nyagatare MAIN ROADS gitumba 0 10 20 30 Miles AKARERE (DISTRICT) BOUNDARIES To Muvumba Kidaho Butaro Kabale N YA G A T A R E Ka INTARA (PROVINCE) BOUNDARIES Lac Burera Lac Volcan Burera Rwanyakizinga INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES Karisimbi MUSANZA BURERA Mulindi Gatunda 1°30'S (4519 m) Muhoza Lac Kirambo 1°30'S Ruhondo Cyeru Lac Busogo G ICUMBI Gabiro Mikindi Kinihira 29°00'E G AT S I B O To Mukamira NORTH Byumba Gatsibo Rutshuru RUBAVU N YA B I H U Nemba Gakenke EAST Vir To Rubavu Kagali Lac Sake Karago PROVINCE Kinyami Kabarore Hago Gisenyi Nyondo un Tare Kiziguru PROVINCE ga Muramba GAKENKE Lac RULINDO Kivumba D E M . R E P. Kabaya Ngaru Muhura Rukara Lac To Bugene M Mbogo Lac Ihema Ny OF ts. Ngororero Muhazi ab RUTSIRO Shyorongi K AY O N Z A ar CONGO La c K ivu NGORORERO go GASABO TA N Z A N I A no Murunda WEST KIGALI CITY Mukarange Gihingo Ndera Gikoro Rwamagana OV P RRutsiro I N C E Bulinga Rugenge KIGALI Rukoma Kicuro Bicumbi Kigabiro Lac 2°00'S MUHANGA Nasho 2°00'S Mabanza NYARUGENGE KICUKIRO RWAMAGANA Kibuye Nyamabuye Rubengera KAMONYI Lac Gitarama Lac Kigarama Lac Mpanga KARONGI Mugesera Cywambwe Bugesera Nyamata Kibungo Gishyita RUHANGO Rilima Bwakira NGOMA KIREHE Ngoma Gashora Sake Masango Ruhango Kirehe BUGESERA Gatagara N YA N Z A Kagano SOUTH Nyanza Busasamana Lac Cyohoha Ka g era Rwesero N YA M A G A B E Sud Lac To Kamembe N Y A M A S H E K E PROVINCE Rusatira Rweru Lusahanga Gasaka Karaba Cyangugu HUYE To 2°30'S To Kitabi Gikongoro Karama Walangu Rwumba Kirundo GISAGARA RUSIZI To Ngoma Nyya-Ghezi Ruramba Butare Ndora Kibeho RWANDA This map was produced by yaru the Map Design Unit of The N YA R U G U R U Kanzi an World Bank. The boundaries, Bugarama Munini Kigembe To BURUNDI Ak colors, denominations and Cibitoke any other information shown To IBRD 33471R2 on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Cibitoke Group, any judgment on the To To legal status of any territory, JUNE 2008 Kayanza Ngozi or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 29°00'E 29°30'E 30°00'E 30°30'E