SUPPORTING A RESILIENT RECOVERY The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region Priorities 2021-2025 Africa ACT, Adapt Connect Transform PEOPLE FIRST 2 foreword by Ousmane Diagana, Vice President Time to ACT: Placing People at the Forefront of our Engagement in the Western and Central Africa Region I am very pleased to present the strategic framework to guide our operational work in the World Bank’s West and Central Africa Region (AFW) over the next four years (2021-2025). This region has been severely impacted by the COVID 19 pandemic and ongoing climate change, two global crises whose effects have aggravated preexisting security, demographic and institutional challenges confronting many countries. Faced with these challenges, we must act. Act with ambition, priorities, urgency and impact. Act through transformational investments, and the provision of expert advice and quality knowledge products to improve living conditions. And act for the people of West and Central Africa. Our motto is: “People First: we commit to placing people at the forefront of our engagement with countries.” Putting people first is particularly crucial at this moment. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, we had seen encouraging progress in many countries in the region. However, the economic and social impacts of COVID-19 have been devasting and far-reaching. In 2020, the pandemic pushed an additional 15 million people into extreme poverty. Furthermore, past gains are being threatened, and gaps in education, health, and jobs persist and are deepening. West and Central Africa is a region where the World Bank Group is committed to achieving progress in its mission to end extreme poverty and promote shared prosperity. The region hosts about a quarter of the world’s extreme poor. More than 70 percent of the region’s population now lives in fragile, conflict, and violence-affected (FCV) countries; 20 countries are eligible for the International Development Association (IDA) assistance, the single largest source of concessional finance for the poorest countries in the world. The battle to achieve poverty reduction and meet the Sustainable Development Goals will depend on progress made here. 3 Indeed, while the Region faces a complex set of challenges, we refuse to lose sight of its great and unique potential in terms of cultural heritage, natural resources, and human capital. We believe in the capacity of the continent to transform, to advance and to offer better lives for its population. Therefore our strategy is based on ambitious outcomes and opportunities, as we propose bold and achievable targets to provide a better future for the people of the region. The strategy is centered around four specific transformational goals: • Rebuilding trust between citizens and the state to create a new social contract, a key mission notably in FCV-affected countries. • Removing the bottlenecks that prevent firms from creating more and better jobs, a major step in ending poverty and unleashing more sustainable growth. • Strengthening human capital and empowering women to help ensure that all boys and girls reach their full potential. • Boosting climate resilience will help countries to adapt and mitigate climate shocks by strengthening resilience in cities and rural areas. Promoting a green growth agenda will also be key to addressing climate challenges in the region. As we work toward achieving these goals, partnership and collaboration will be central to our approach. And in everything we do, we are guided and committed to living our values of “Teamwork, Respect, Integrity, Innovation, and Impact”. 4 progress in reducing poverty but recent gains are threatened by the COVID-19 pandemic. The region faces 4 main challenges Distrust in government Rapid population Resource Climate change & widespread fragility growth dependency vulnerability 70% MORE THAN 70% OVER THE NEXT COUNTRIES TEMPERATURES OF THE PEOPLE OF 30 YEARS, ARE ‘MINING’ IN THE SAHEL ARE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AFRICA’S WORKING THEIR NON- INCREASING AFRICA LIVE IN FRAGILE AGE POPULATION RENEWABLE 1.5 TIMES 1.5 TIMES AND CONFLICT WILL INCREASE BY CAPITAL FASTER THAN AFFECTED 800MILLION 800 MILLION THE GLOBAL COUNTRIES PEOPLE AVERAGE 4 BIG GOALS TO transform the economy AND inclusive growth a new more and Stronger more climate social contract better jobs Human Capital resilience IMPROVE SERVICE ADDRESS PRIORITIZE BUILD AGRICULTURAL DELIVERY MACROECONOMIC HEALTH AND VALUE CHAINS VULNERABILITY EDUCATION REINFORCE AND DEBT SPENDING SUPPORT FOOD AND INSTITUTIONS AND SUSTAINABILITY WATER SECURITY GOVERNMENT EMPOWER WOMEN CAPACITY SUPPORT CRITICAL DEVELOP GREEN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE EXPAND SOCIAL PROMOTE DIGITAL PROTECTION PROMOTE GREEN CITIES OPPORTUNITIES PROMOTE PRIVATE SUPPORT CITIZEN SECTOR INVESTMENT CONNECT WORKERS MITIGATE CLIMATE ENGAGEMENT AND JOB CREATION TO JOBS SHOCKS 5 6 MEASURABLE OUTCOMES GOVERNMENT EMPOWER WOMEN CAPACITY SUPPORT CRITICAL DEVELOP GREEN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE EXPAND SOCIAL PROMOTE DIGITAL PROTECTION PROMOTE GREEN CITIES OPPORTUNITIES PROMOTE PRIVATE SUPPORT CITIZEN SECTOR INVESTMENT CONNECT WORKERS MITIGATE CLIMATE ENGAGEMENT AND JOB CREATION TO JOBS SHOCKS 6 MEASURABLE OUTCOMES TO STAY ON COURSE INCREASE INCREASE REDUCE ACCESS TO BROADBAND LEARNING ELECTRICITY CONNECTIVITY POVERTY FROM 50% FROM 30% FROM 80% TO 64% TO 43% TO 76% BY 2026 BY 2024 IN 2024 TODAY, MORE THAN TODAY ONLY 26% TODAY 86% OF 2/3RD OF SCHOOLS OF AFRICA’S CHILDREN AT LATE AND HEALTH POPULATION PRIMARY AGE CENTERS HAVE NO HAVE ACCESS ARE NOT PROFICIENT RELIABLE ELECTRICITY TO INTERNET PROFICIENT IN READING INCREASE GIRL’S INCREASE INCREASE SECONDARY CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY SCHOOL CO-BENEFITS AND ACCOUNTABILITY ENROLLMENT FROM IN AFW FINANCING IN PUBLIC AFFAIRS 42% TO 47% TO AN AVERAGE OF 35% BY 2024 OVER FY21-25 TODAY, ONLY WITHOUT COUNTRIES’ SCORE ON 2 OUT OF 5 CLIMATE RESILIENCE, TRANSPARENCY AND GIRLS 43M MORE PEOPLE ACCOUNTABILITY ARE ENROLLED IN AFRICA COULD ARE AMONG THE IN SECONDARY BE PUSHED INTO LOWEST IN THE SCHOOL POVERTY BY 2030 2020 CPIA 6 Introduction Progress is threatened by COVID-19 Western and Central African countries have could, if deployed for development results by made progress in reducing poverty. The accountable governments, accelerate progress poverty rate declined from 59% in 2000 to 47% in the future. 1 in 2010 and to 35% in 2018. However, given the region’s high population growth rate, the Recent progress is threatened by the number of poor has only declined marginally COVID-19 pandemic which, in addition to with 3 million fewer poor people in 2018 than its direct human toll, has caused the first in 2000. region-wide recession in a quarter century. The result has been job losses, a reversal of Accelerated progress is essential for education gains, and rising debt levels that improving the lives of the region’s people and threaten social spending and an expansionary for achieving the WBG’s twin goals of ending fiscal response.2 COVID-19 has had a dramatic extreme poverty and increasing shared impact on both poverty numbers in 2020 prosperity. The region has many assets, and the projected trajectory of poverty rates including a strong resource base, a young going forward. The poverty rate in West and population, flexibility in the movement of labor Central Africa jumped by almost 3% in 2020 and goods, and improved macroeconomic after a decade of steady decline and poverty management in recent decades. These assets projections for 2030 are 4% higher than pre- have driven improvement in numerous covid-19 forecasts. This would imply 23 indicators, from infant mortality to secondary million more poor people in 2030 than the school enrolment, over the last decade and pre-covid-19 forecast. 7 Decades of economic progress are in peril if the vulnerable hardest because they depend on the crisis is left unchecked. With the loss of lives informal economy and have the weakest access and the decline in economic activity, poverty, to services. inequality, and unemployment levels will rise sharply. Even before the crisis, Africa was Inequality was already high in AFW home to more than half of the world’s poorest. countries before the crisis, with a median This number will rise and people already in Gini coefficient of [0.43], and will grow as a poverty will sink deeper into destitution. The result of the pandemic. Gender impacts will be crisis is likely to hit the poor, women and the substantial as women derive their livelihoods 8 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 disproportionately from the informal economy. • Protecting Lives. In the immediate term, Mobility restrictions combined with economic the primary concern is saving lives. This stress and isolation could increase gender- means putting in place the measures based violence. The COVID-19 shock could needed for the prevention, detection, and aggravate the already developing food security treatment of the disease, a huge public crisis. Agricultural production is projected to health challenge given the weakness of contract between 2.6 and 7%. Prospects for health systems in many AFW countries. achieving the SDGs, already challenging in • many areas, will become even more difficult. • Protecting Livelihoods. The second prong Commodity exporting countries are seeing is to ensure livelihoods during the period large declines in export prices and supply when parts of the economy or borders disruptions, adversely impacting balance of need to be shut to prevent the spread of the payments, budgets, and national incomes. disease. This means protecting households, Risks of full-blown currency/BOP crises have protecting jobs, and protecting key risen, which would aggravate the downturn government functions. and make recovery slower. Meanwhile, the • collapse of tourism, remittances, foreign direct • Protecting the Future. While much of investment, and export revenues is negatively the effort would necessarily go towards affecting households and firms addressing the immediate crisis, investment also needs to be made in recovery and Reinforcing old approaches will be insufficient growth, to create the foundations for the to address the impact of the pandemic. AFW future. The AFW Strategy laid out below has adopted a simple three-pronged framework incorporates the immediate response but, to respond to the pandemic and the global most importantly, focuses on how to “build economic crisis: back better.” 9 The region has been diverging with the rest of the world for 50 years 3 Even before the pandemic, despite the since expanded dramatically. The divergence progress in meeting the WBG twin goals, in output per worker is not explained by progress in the region has clearly not met the divergences in factor endowments but, rather, aspirations of its people. The gap between per has been driven by a growing gap in total factor capita incomes in AFW countries and those productivity relative to the rest of the world. of both other developing countries and high-The low growth in productivity is, in turn, income countries has grown steadily. Per capita linked to a lack of structural transformation of incomes in West and Central Africa were 8% of economies. Compared to other regions, there high-income per capita incomes 50 years ago;has been little economic transformation. The today they are only 4%. Over the same period, movement from low productivity activities in as other developing countries converged withtraditional agriculture and the informal sector high-income countries, per capita incomes into higher productivity manufacturing, services, West and Central Africa fell relative to those and agriculture has been extremely slow. There of countries in every region outside of Sub-has been little improvement in productivity Saharan Africa. within sectors; and little productivity improvement from urbanization.4 The region’s Low productivity growth explains this gap. working-age population is employed but Differences in output per worker between generally in very low-productivity activities. regions, relatively small in the 1960s, has Four mega-trends affect the future of the region Going forward, the countries of West and 73% of the region’s Central Africa will need to deal with four population now live in mega-trends that continue to shape the region and the prospects for improving the lives of its FCV-affected countries people. 10 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 First, the social contract is breaking down Third, the region’s resource dependence is and violent conflict is increasing. Citizens increasing, which presents both sustainability have lost trust in states that fail to protect, and governance challenges. At the broadest render justice, or deliver services to them. level, all West and Central African countries Violent conflict is also growing, as states fail to are “mining” their non-renewable capital, resolve community conflicts, which, in turn, whether that be hydrocarbons, minerals, or further undermines trust in governments. land. Consuming non-renewable capital, Eleven of the 22 countries in the region are rather than transforming it into human capital now affected by fragility, conflict, and violence or produced capital is unsustainable. Growth (FCV), and 73% of the region’s population now based on such extraction also increases live in FCV-affected countries. vulnerability to commodity price shocks and generates few jobs. Finally, the rents generated Second, the demography of the next decade from such extraction are widely perceived is already set. Rapid population growth will to be shared inequitably, which generates fuel an unprecedented growth of the working- grievances, frequently aggravates corruption, age population. Over the next 30 years, Sub- and can reduce government accountability. Saharan Africa’s working-age population will increase by 800 million people, a much larger increase than in either China or India in the 30 years when their working-age population lake chad has lost 90% of grew fastest. At the same time, continued high fertility will keep the dependency ratio high its water since 1960 and increase the difficulty of providing health and education services to a rapidly growing Fourth, climate change is already happening school-age population. The demographic and has dramatic negative consequences momentum will also accelerate urbanization, for populations in the region. The climate which presents both risks of fractious, crisis in AFW is severe. Lake Chad, once one unliveable cities and opportunities for of Africa’s largest sources of fresh water and agglomeration benefits to raise productivity providing livelihood for around 30 million and create better jobs. 11 people, has lost 90% of its water since the The remainder of this document lays out 1960. The rising temperatures, desertification, the goals, key measurable outcomes, and deforestation, increased coastal flooding, operational framework of the AFW strategy. greater rainfall variability, and more frequent The strategy is intentionally concise, rather extreme weather events associated with than exhaustive, in order to serve its primary climate change in the region are already purpose of guiding AFW decisions over having a devastating impact on populations the next four years and providing a clear and the economy and will continue to do so. framework for assessing the effectiveness of its Climate change is leading to land degradation, support. food insecurity, conflicts, forced displacement, increased poverty in AFW. Four big goals to transform Western and Central Africa Sustainably reducing poverty and increasing It will also target six measurable outcomes shared prosperity in AFW countries at the regional level that contribute to depends largely on growth and economic achieving the goals and which AFW support transformation to create better jobs for more can influence directly. The goals, measurable people, including women and youth. AFW will outcomes, and related activities are described focus on contributing to the realization of four below and summarized in a table at the end of high-level goals to achieve this transformation: this section. • Rebuild trust between citizens and the state The AFW countries face many common • Remove the bottlenecks that prevent firms challenges but are also very heterogeneous, from creating more and better jobs which requires setting measurable outcome • Strengthen human capital and empower targets at the country level as well. Beyond women region-wide outcomes, country strategies • Ramp up climate resilience. will define measurable country-specific 12 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 outcome targets that make the most important country rather than the regional level. All CPFs contribution to achieving the AFW goals and PLRs will define measurable country-level in each country context. Inclusion, service objectives that contribute to the high-level delivery, empowering women and girls, regional goals. For example, preventing the accountability, adaptation to climate change, expansion of violent conflict will be important preventing conflict, transparent use of resource in the Sahel countries and increasing the rents are all important for meeting AFW’s transparency around natural resource rents will goals, but the most important actions and the be important in the resource-rich countries. measurable results need to be identified at the Goal #1: Rebuild trust between citizens and the state to create a new social contract Rebuilding trust between citizens and the involve improving security and justice for all state is necessary for defining a new social citizens. The “security” and “development” contract and realizing country development agendas are intertwined, and progress will goals. As noted above, citizens have lost require simultaneous action on both fronts. trust in states that fail to deliver services and Beyond service delivery, rebuilding the trust that exclude large parts of their populations of citizens requires strengthening institutions (ethnic communities, the poor, women, youth, and accountability. In particular, it requires the politically unconnected). Strengthening governments to assure that public spending and inclusive service delivery is a first step resource mobilization are fair and transparent. toward rebuilding trust. Priorities will vary Regionally the biggest accountability gains will among countries but, at the most basic level, be made by preventing the expansion of violent 13 conflict and improving the collection and use of natural resource rents. These gains will translate into resources for governments to invest in public goods and reduce state capture, which is key both to restore citizen’s trust and to create competitive, job-creating enterprises. AFW will help rebuild trust between citizens and the state through three broad approaches. • First, it will support effective and inclusive service delivery, including through digital solutions such as expanding access to unique IDs to allow citizens to access services. In FCV countries this will include enhancing core government functions such as justice and rule of law. • • Second, AFW will help strengthen economic and social institutions. In particular, it will support equitable resource mobilization, public expenditure planning and execution, and social protection mechanisms. Reducing regressive taxes, eliminating exemptions for the well-connected, and the use of new technologies to increase revenue from property taxation, will be supported to increase revenue, strengthen tax transparency, and reduce inequality. 14 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 Publication of natural resource management contracts, which is critical for accountability in the extractive sector, will be promoted so that citizens can understand the terms under which national endowments are used. Finally, new tools in e-procurement, beneficial ownership, and public sector auditing can create the systems and incentives for oversight of critical public sector engagements. AFW will also help reduce corruption by supporting efforts to strengthen the interface between the public and private sectors (transparency, regulation, contestability), reduce state capture, and tackle illicit transfers. • • Finally, AFW will support citizen engagement at the project and community level and multi- stakeholder platforms for policy making and implementation including grievance redress mechanisms. AFW will contribute to strengthening accountability by investing in citizens’ mechanisms to engage, express their views, and give feedback; strengthening government capacity to adapt in response to citizen views; and promoting digital opportunities to enhance both citizen engagement and government capacity to respond. Success in rebuilding trust between citizens and the state is essential for achieving peace and all the other AFW goals but is not easily measured at the regional level. It will be particularly important for CPFs to define measurable country-specific objectives related to the three approaches summarized above. 5 Measurable Outcome: Increase the transparency/accountability/corruption rating of a majority of AFW countries by 2024 (CPIA Question 16) Transparency in public affairs and the accountability of high-level officials are fundamental to the trust of citizens in their government and the effective delivery of public services. The transparency/ accountability/corruption criterion of the CPIA assesses the extent to which 15 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 high-level officials can be held accountable for their use of funds, administrative decisions, and the results obtained. The criterion incorporates four sub-components: the accountability of top officials to effective oversight institutions, access of civil society to timely and reliable information on public spending and public policies, state capture by narrow vested interests, and integrity in the management of public resources. The CPIA ratings of AFW countries show both the importance and difficulty of improving governance performance. The governance cluster score of AFW countries (3.1 on a scale of 1 to 6 in 2019) is the lowest of all cluster scores and, within the governance cluster, the transparency/ accountability/corruption score (3.0 in 2019) is the lowest of the subcomponents. Moreover, the transparency/accountability/corruption score has been largely stagnant for the last decade. AFW will support actions to improve all four aspects of the transparency, accountability, and corruption criterion with the aim to help a majority of AFW countries improve their performance on this criterion by 2024. Goal #2: Remove the bottlenecks that prevent firms from creating more and better jobs As noted above, creating more and better jobs is key to both the poverty reduction agenda and re-converging with the rest of the world. The big problem is “missing jobs” and “quality jobs” rather than unemployable youth.6 Efforts to strengthen skills will have little impact if the bottlenecks that keep firms from growing and creating more and better jobs are not addressed. The key to the demand side of the jobs agenda is to promote growth and economic transformation. Boosting inclusive productivity growth to change the structure of AFW’s economies will be essential to create better jobs and thus prosperity. Creating better jobs requires increased private sector investment. AFW, working with IFC, will help address the macroeconomic, infrastructure, and business environment bottlenecks that prevent firms from creating more and better jobs: 16 • Particular attention will be given to addressing debt sustainability concerns, which have been aggravated by the pandemic. Debt issues now threaten both macroeconomic management and the investment in public goods (infrastructure and social services) needed not only to nurture and attract job-creating private investment but to realize each of the AFW goals. • • Support to infrastructure will focus on filling the infrastructure gaps for firms of all sizes to expand and create better jobs. Access to electricity, digital connectivity, and transport will be particularly important. • • Regulatory reforms will focus on creating the competitive environment required to increase private investment and job creation. Assuring a level playing field for all firms and avoiding state capture by vested interests will be a particular focus of such reforms. In order to maximize financing for development, AFW will identify jointly with IFC and MIGA at least one area for new private sector financing in each country and the corresponding actions required to make it a reality. 17 7 The required structural transformation has sectoral, spatial, and technological dimensions. Sectoral transformation requires a reallocation of resources towards activities that increase value added and competitiveness. Nurturing or integrating regional and global value chains is key to accelerate economic transformation. Indeed, accessing or enlarging competitive markets is critical to mobilize high-productivity jobs-creating private investment, including in agriculture. AFW will support efforts both to foster contestable domestic markets through reforms to create a level playing field for all firms and reduce preferential access for cronies, as well as to gain access to larger markets through implementation of the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCTA). AFW will support spatial transformation that accelerates productivity growth through stronger agglomeration economies and linkages. Investing in creating markets in cities, rural- urban value chains, and connectivity will be particularly important to realize the potential for increased productivity in agriculture which is key for poverty reduction. AFW working with IFC and MIGA will help reap the potential benefits from urbanization by addressing the congestion, connectivity, and (high) cost issues that plague today’s cities, transforming them to cities that 8 work, i.e., provide services and create jobs, and that are more liveable. Given the region’s current level of technology use, technological transformation offers the prospect of large increases in productivity through catch-up adoption of existing technologies, 9 with both leapfrogging opportunities and new solutions to longstanding problems. Digital transformation, in particular, could increase access to markets, lower costs, and build skills for the future. The rapid increase in the working-age population will lead to the creation of more self- employed, household enterprise jobs, irrespective of progress elsewhere. AFW will support efforts, to raise the productivity of these jobs, including through leveraging digital technologies and supporting economic inclusion programs in agriculture and the informal sector. The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened the future of many firms and thus job creation prospects. AFW will continue to help protect livelihoods—including households, key government functions, and essential economic activity—and protect the future through investments to 10 support recovery and growth. 18 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 Measurable Outcome: Increase access to electricity from 50% to 64 % by 2026 Access to electricity has cross-cutting implications for public service delivery and economic opportunities.11 In addition to directly improving the quality of life, access to electricity is critical for creating and enlarging markets and creating higher productivity jobs. It raises the productivity of enterprises, powers irrigation and refrigeration for agriculture, enables digital development, and is particularly important for small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), including home- based enterprises that allow women to combine domestic responsibilities with self-employment. Expanding access to electricity is also associated with declines in fertility and would contribute to improving human capital outcomes since more than two-thirds of schools and health centers in Sub-Saharan Africa and hospitals serving 350 million people rely on hospitals do not have reliable electricity. AFW will support connections and the necessary generation and transmission infrastructure, enabling private investment where feasible. The Africa Energy Leap initiative represents a comprehensive WBG engagement to support both direct access and enabling conditions to increase access to electricity from 50% in 2019 to 64% in 2026. Measurable Outcome: Increase broadband connectivity from 30% to 43% by 2024 Broadband connectivity is critical for economic transformation and the creation of better jobs for more people. Connecting individuals, firms, and governments to high-speed internet offers leapfrogging opportunities to increase productivity. It also offers new solutions to long- standing problems, including low levels of financial inclusion, poor access to market information, 19 low access to health and education services, and exclusion of women. Moreover, digital solutions in Africa have a positive impact on employment creation by firms since they create good jobs rather than displace labor. In addition, access to a digital transaction account is a step toward broader financial inclusion and a gateway to other financial services. Digital technologies can also help leapfrog on learning (e.g., scripted lessons) and promote transparent teacher recruitment, deployment, and training. AFW will support investments in digital infrastructure, skills, platforms, and regulatory regimes to increase the share of the population with broadband connectivity from 30% in 2020 to 43% by 2024. Goal #3: Strengthen human capital and empower women AFW seeks to be a region where all girls and boys reach their full potential. This includes arriving at school well-nourished and ready to learn, acquiring real learning in the classroom, and entering the job market as healthy, skilled, and productive adults.12 Beyond the intrinsic value of people’s health and education, increased human capital leads to higher employment and earnings for people, higher income for countries, and stronger cohesion within societies. Interventions to strengthen human capital, including through health, education, social protection, water and sanitation, and other multi-sectoral interventions are closely interrelated. Poor learning outcomes is one of the most pressing regional concerns; more children are in school, but they learn little. AFW has the highest level of learning poverty (the share of children unable to read at age 10) of any region. Women’s empowerment also implies investing in women and girls. Designing the needed interventions, targeting them to achieve the highest effectiveness, and navigating difficult trade-offs in times of reduced fiscal space makes investing in better measurement of human capital more important than ever. AFW will support system reforms, frontline delivery, technological innovation, and sustainable financing to achieve the above vision, with a particular focus on learning outcomes and women’s empowerment. 20 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 Empowering women is essential to create dynamic markets that drive transformation and to accelerate the demographic transition. The de facto exclusion of women from much economic activity means that half the population is effectively barred from realizing its potential—and from contributing to national development goals. AFW will support efforts to reform legal frameworks and influence social norms that relegate women to less productive jobs. Also, AFW will strive to protect girls and women from violence, increase women’s ability to build and use their human capital, access markets and control how their income is invested. Investing in girls’ education, supporting access of women to assets and more productive jobs, as well as improving representation at all level of society will be key to accelerate the demographic transition. 21 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 AFW will help mobilize and safeguard financing to protect, preserve, and invest in human capital in response to COVID-19. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a particularly pernicious impact on human capital in the region. In addition to the immediate loss of life, it has set back access to basic health and education services which, if not addressed aggressively, could jeopardize human capital for decades. AFW will support a multi-sector, multi-actor response to address these issues through financing, policy reforms, women’s empowerment, and technological innovation aimed at strengthening health and other systems designed to respond to severe health shocks (pandemic preparedness), social protection systems that increase resiliency by cushioning the effects of shocks and providing a springboard for people to get out of poverty (adaptive safety nets), and systems adapted to addressing constraints in FCV countries.13 In addition to financing, AFW will support policy reforms to tackle systemic obstacles to human capital development. Such reforms will aim to address bottlenecks in governance and service delivery, accelerate the demographic transition through multi-sectoral efforts to empower women and girls, and prevent and reverse damage to human capital in FCV-affected settings. AFW will also advance research and partnerships to strengthen the knowledge base and the demand side of human capital and to enable comprehensive cross-sectoral solutions at scale. AFW will also support efforts to address supply-side constraints to job creation. It will help build capabilities and connect workers to productive jobs, including by strengthening the capabilities of workers to take advantage of new opportunities to access jobs and supporting the acquisition of jobs-relevant skills to prepare young men and women through vocational education, tertiary education, and on-the-job training. It will help strengthen the capabilities of entrepreneurs and managers so that firms can expand and create more and better jobs. It will also support channels for educational institutions and the private sector to connect to ensure that students are acquiring the skills needed for jobs. Finally, AFW will support expanded social protection to preserve existing human capital and facilitate labor mobility, including safe, legal overseas migration, and transitions from safety nets to economically sustainable work. 22 Measurable Outcome: Reduce learning poverty (inability to read at age 10) from 80% to 76% by 2024 Education is foundational for countries’ growth, productivity, and development; for individual and family incomes and welfare; for improved health outcomes (including reduction in fertility); for active participation in civic and political life; for social cohesion; and for active participation of individuals and societies in employment and the global economy. Literacy and other basic cognitive and behavioural skills are prerequisites for all other learning outcomes. Learning poverty focuses on literacy because it is an easily understood metric, a gateway to learning in other areas, and a proxy for foundational learning in other subjects. Moreover, children who do not read by age 10 (or at the latest, by the end of primary school) usually fail to master reading later in their schooling career. AFW will support an integrated, multi-sectoral approach to reducing learning poverty from 80% in 2019 to 76% by 2024, supported by actions both in and beyond the education sector.14 Learning poverty provides a particularly devastating example of the impact of the pandemic, as preliminary estimates suggest that it rose from 80% in 2019 to 83% in 2020, thus increasing both the challenge and the importance of reducing it in coming years. Ensuring that all children can learn requires attention to early childhood development, better water and sanitation, transportation, improved health and nutrition, cash transfers to support vulnerable households in sending their children to school, civil service reforms, and strengthened management and financing of public services. Measuring learning poverty regularly will, in itself, draw attention to the problem and is essential to designing effective interventions. Measurable Outcome: Increase girls’ secondary school enrolment from 42% to 47% by 2024 23 Empowering women and girls and accelerating the demographic transition is a high return investment central to boosting productivity and economic development in the region. In addition, the intergenerational gains from educating and keeping girls in school are large. High fertility results in higher poverty, poorer educational and health outcomes, and lower labor productivity. Child marriage and teenage pregnancy are high across the region, especially in rural areas, and limit women’s and girls’ opportunities for accessing social and economic opportunities. Reducing fertility and ensuring women’s economic empowerment requires a multipronged approach, including increased opportunities for girls to stay in school and learn. AFW will support efforts to increase girls’ secondary enrolment, including by making schools safe and reducing gender-based violence, from 42% in 2020 to 47% by 2024 and to improve their learning 15 outcomes once in school. Cash transfers will be an important tool to get out-of-school girls into school, as well as engagement with communities and religious leaders to change social norms which also inhibit parents from sending girls to school. Goal #4: Ramp up climate resilience Economic growth, shared prosperity, and peace and stability in the region will be increasingly undermined if vulnerabilities to climate change are not addressed. The impact of climate change in West and Central Africa is already visible and is intensifying. The effects are aggravated by the vicious circle of high population growth, limited economic opportunities, and environmental degradation. Coastal erosion from sea-level rise and the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, especially droughts and floods, have a significant negative impact on medium-term growth and on conflict as competition over dwindling resources intensifies. Reduced yields and land degradation from climate change threaten food production, reduce productivity in agriculture, and aggravate the conditions for conflict. 16 Increased resilience to climate change is the cornerstone of AFW support for climate action. It implies strengthening countries’ ability to (i) absorb climate shocks, such as reinforcing urban infrastructure to withstand higher sea levels, better water or forest resources management depending on the geography; (ii) adapt systems to increased climate vulnerabilty, such as 24 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 increasing the use of irrigation in response to greater rainfall variability; and (iii) transform systems in response to climate change, such as switching from crop to livestock production in response to reduced rainfall. AFW’s efforts will focus on (a) food security by building end-to- end resilient agriculture value chains focused on productivity and efficiency, (b) environmental stability by targeting policy and investments to secure eco-system stability and water security outcomes, (c) clean energy by focusing on universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy services, (d) resilient green cities by enabling urban transition and 25 transformation toward resilient low carbon growth and green tech, and (e) mitigating climate shocks by strengthening the socio-economic resilience of the poorest. The green growth agenda will be pursued to address resilience in a way that contributes directly to the jobs agenda and poverty reduction. Measurable Outcome: Increase climate co-benefits in AFW financing to an average of 35% over FY21-25 AFW will help countries strengthen their ability to absorb, adapt to, and transform systems in response to climate change vulnerabilities. Climate resilience cannot be measured by a single indicator as there are numerous possible ways to improve both adaptation and resilience and their relevance depends on the location-specific nature of vulnerabilities.17 AFW will therefore accord particular importance to the definition of measurable climate resilience outcome indicators at the country level in CPFs. At the regional level, AFW will increase the climate co-benefits in its financing to an average of 35% over FY21-25. 26 Summary of Goals, Activities, and Outcome targets goals related activities selected regional country targets outcome targets 1. Rebuild • Strengthen capacities and 1. Increase the TBD by Country accountability of economic and transparency/ Teams during trust between social institutions; accountability/ CPF process citizens and • Support effective, equitable and corruption rating of the state inclusive service delivery; a majority of AFW • Promote trust through citizen countries by 2024 as information, engagement and measured by CPIA transparency question 16. 2. Create more • Remove infrastructure, 2. Increase access to TBD by Country macroeconomic, and business electricity from 50% Teams during and better environment bottlenecks that to 64 % by 2026 CPF process jobs prevent firms from creating jobs. • Focus on digital, regional/global 3. Increase broadband value chains (incl. agriculture), connectivity from and urban-rural linkages (incl. 30% to 43% transport) by 2024 3. Strengthen • Build strong and pandemic 4. Reduce learning TBD by Country ready health systems; poverty (inability to Teams during human capital • Support rapid improvements read at age 10) from CPF process and empower to education and skills 80% to 76% by 2024 women development; • Expand and promote equity in 5. Increase girls’ social protection systems; secondary school • Accelerate the demographic enrolment from transition through investments 42% to 47% by 2024 in girls’ education and women empowerment 4. Ramp up • Promote clean energy 6. Increase climate TBD by Country transition; co-benefits in AFW Teams during climate • Improve water resource financing to an CPF process resilience management; average of 35% over • Reduce land degradation; FY21-25 • Promote green growth, balancing mitigation and adaptation 27 How to achieve these goals AFW’s answer to how it will operationalize Recognizing that sustainable change requires its strategy is simple and explicit: “by doing client readiness, AFW will be opportunistic in whatever it takes”. What it will do, described seeking results, engaging on a big scale where above, will undoubtedly evolve with experience, clients are ready for change, leveraging clients new challenges, and new knowledge. The how with implementation experience for peer will be the most important part, characterized exchange, and seeking to create opportunities by a clear focus on the goals and an unwavering by increasing advocacy work and long-term “whatever it takes” approach to getting results. investments where appetite for change is weaker. It will focus on broad engagements AFW will use accountability and candor in and genuine multisectoral solutions (not how it works to show that it demands of itself “Christmas tree” projects) to address key the same practices that it seeks from its clients. challenges. In particular, AFW will increase openness regarding problems and country performance, Successful implementation of the strategy recognizing that problems do not go away but requires combining advisory services and must be surfaced and addressed. It will seek analytics (ASA), policy dialogue, financing, to use respectful but candid discussion of and coordination activities as a WBG problems, including governance problems, to package to address specific challenges or increase its credibility with both governments problems. AFW will propose solutions to and citizens. This effort will start with a review problems, which requires teams with expertise and restructuring of the undisbursed portfolio, from more than one practice, not individual recognizing that this is the most powerful projects or studies. instrument to get quick results towards meeting its goals. It will aggressively close AFW will strengthen its ASA recognizing that underperforming operations and reallocate the Bank’s “non-lending instruments are resources to achieving the six measurable more effective than its lending instruments regional outcome targets.18 at influencing the policy priorities of client 28 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 19 countries.” In order to assure its effectiveness, will include investing in public goods in rural AFW will structure ASA into programs to areas where the vast majority (82%) of the assure an iterative and sustained engagement poor live, developing value chains to link rural and to avoid proliferation of fragmented, and urban markets, and increasing investment supply-driven ASA. AFW will sharpen the to foster cities that work. Finally, AFW will focus on quality and impact of ASA, including develop investment projects that can survive through a systematic documentation of impact. weak policy environments and enhance productivity when prospects improve, in order AFW will link the choice of financing to use IDA resources effectively in countries instrument to country context and the results with weak governments and/or little appetite sought. Where reform prospects permit, it for reform. will increase the use of Development Policy Financing (DPF) to support improvements Given the importance of regional integration in the business environment, the quality both to enlarge markets and to solve joint of public expenditure, inclusive service problems, ranging from low electricity access delivery, and, in collaboration with IFC and to security spill-overs, AFW will reinforce MIGA, maximizing finance for development its engagement with the Regional Economic by creating the conditions for increased Communities. Consistent with its emphasis on private investment. AFW will increase use results, its engagement with the Communities of Programs for Results (PforR) financing as will focus on concrete solutions to identified the preferred instrument to focus on results, problems. particularly regarding service delivery, and overcome implementation constraints. It Across both analytic and financing activities, will also address internal practices that have AFW will partner with other institutions discouraged the use of PforRs. Investment in order to maximize joint impact, assure Project Financing (IPF) will remain the that knowledge and experience is shared, instrument of choice for traditional operations coordinate financing, and avoid duplication. based on financing project inputs. Priorities Strengthening partnerships will be particularly 29 important in the Sahel and FCV countries in to help countries accelerate change and, where increased integration of security andwhere possible, leapfrog to new solutions development activities will be required to to longstanding problems. Some leapfrog achieve results. attempts will fail but one success will offset many failures. AFW will stress learning from Finally, AFW will also accept the risk of failures. It will devote more resources to testing bold and innovative ideas. It will measuring results to learn what works and to put a premium on learning and innovation design new operations accordingly. Conclusion The countries of West and Central Africa have many resources but they have not succeeded in combining those resources in ways that help their people’s well-being converge with that of people in other regions. AFW seeks to help the people of the region realize their aspirations and the WBG to reach its global twin goals by supporting economic transformation to create better jobs for more people. It will do so by focusing on four high-level goals: (1) rebuild trust between citizens and the state to create a new social contract, (2) remove the bottlenecks that prevent firms from creating more and better jobs, (3) strengthen human capital and empower women, and (4) ramp up climate resilience. The strategy laid out in this document defines measurable AFW regional outcome targets that contribute to achieving these high-level goals and elaborates how AFW will operationalize its strategy. The strategy seeks to be simple and clear, despite the complex challenges facing the countries of West and Central Africa, in order to genuinely guide management decisions over the next four years. Two features distinguish it from previous approaches and will be key to its success: 30 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 • First, the strategy focuses on measurable outcomes, at the regional and country level, which contribute to the high-level goals and by which AFW will measure its success or failure. The strategy defines a small number of regional outcome targets and, having set the broad regional goals, commits all future country strategy documents to define measurable country- specific outcome targets that contribute to these goals. The resulting regional focus and increased differentiation in country strategies will contribute to genuine selectivity, clear accountability, and enhanced outcomes. • • Second, recognizing that specific interventions will evolve with experience, new challenges, and new knowledge, the strategy stresses that how it is implemented will be key. Implementation will be characterized by client engagement based on candor, learning from failures, and humility; a clear focus on reaching AFW goals; and an unwavering “whatever it takes” approach to getting there. 31 endnotes 1 World Bank (2020), World Development Indicators. The twin goals converge in AFW since the poor constitute around 40% of the population. 2 World Bank (2020), “Africa Region: A Framework for Operational Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Crisis” 3 Africa Region Chief Economist’s Office (July 2020), The Great Divergence: Sixty years of economic development in West and Central Africa. 4 World Bank (2020), Boosting Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. 5 Country Policy and Institutions Assessment (question 16); “World Bank (2020) CPIA Africa: Assessing Africa’s Policies and Institutions 6 Fox et al. (2020), “Africa’s ‘youth employment’ crisis is actually a ‘missing jobs’ crisis”, Brookings 7 World Bank (2020), Boosting Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa; World Bank (2020), Industrialization for Jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa. 8 World Bank (2017), Africa’s Cities : Opening Doors to the World, https://openknowledge.worldbank. org/handle/10986/25896 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. 9 World Bank (2020), Leapfrogging: The Key to Africa’s Development, From Constraints to Investment Opportunities 10 World Bank (2020), “Africa Region: A Framework for Operational Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Crisis”. 11 World Bank (2020), “Africa’s Energy Access Leap” 12 World Bank (2020), Africa Human Capital Plan: Game Changers for Investing in Africa’s People 13 World Bank (2020), “Protecting and Preserving Africa’s Human Capital in the Face of COVID-19”. 32 The World Bank’s Western & Central Africa Region (AFW) Priorities 2021-2025 14 The AFW learning poverty baseline and target were calculated using PASEC 2019 country results weighted by population. The learning poverty reduction rate is calculated based on the 70th percentile of the progress of countries with data. The learning poverty numbers will be revised in September 2021 based on the new learning assessments. 15 The girls secondary enrolment baseline and target were calculated using the World Development Indicators, whose source is the UNESCO Institute for Statistics. The gross enrollment rate for the year 2021 is projected to be 41.4%, which implies a reduction from 2020 as a consequence of COVID-19. The projections for 2021-2024 are calculated based on the population-weighted average for countries with positive growth between 2015 and 2019. 16 World Bank (2020), The Next Generation Africa Climate Business Plan : Ramping Up Development- Centered Climate Action. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge. worldbank.org/handle/10986/34098 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO 17 World Bank (2020), Climate Indicators Guidance Note : “Adaptation and resilience-building cannot be measured by a single, universal indicator, or even a set of uniform indicators, as there are a myriad of possible ways to improve adaptation to climate change/build resilience….Climate adaptation/ resilience indicators must be rooted in the knowledge of the identified climate impacts for the particular country and the context-specific knowledge of climate vulnerabilities, which are dependent on factors such as location, beneficiaries, and sector.” 18 Disbursements are not results but a low disbursement rate is an early indicator of design or implementation problems. AFW’s FY20 15% disbursement rate shows there is a problem. 19 World Bank (2020), “How Does the World Bank Influence the Development Policy Priorities of Low-Income and Lower-Middle Income Countries?”, Policy Research Working Paper 9225. 33 Adapt Partner Western and Central Africa countries have made progress in reducing poverty but recent gains are threatened by the COVID-19 pandemic. The region faces 4 main challenges Distrust in government Rapid population Resource Climate change & widespread fragility growth dependency vulnerability 70% MORE THAN 70% OVER THE NEXT COUNTRIES TEMPERATURES OF THE PEOPLE OF 30 YEARS, ARE ‘MINING’ IN THE SAHEL ARE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AFRICA’S WORKING THEIR NON- INCREASING AFRICA LIVE IN FRAGILE AGE POPULATION RENEWABLE 1.5 TIMES 1.5 TIMES AND CONFLICT WILL INCREASE BY CAPITAL FASTER THAN AFFECTED 800MILLION 800 MILLION THE GLOBAL COUNTRIES PEOPLE AVERAGE 4 BIG GOALS TO transform the economy AND inclusive growth 34 AND CONFLICT WILL INCREASE BY CAPITAL FASTER THAN AFFECTED 800MILLION 800 MILLION THE GLOBAL COUNTRIES PEOPLE AVERAGE 4 BIG GOALS TO transform the economy AND inclusive growth a new more and Stronger more climate social contract better jobs Human Capital resilience IMPROVE SERVICE ADDRESS PRIORITIZE BUILD AGRICULTURAL DELIVERY MACROECONOMIC HEALTH AND VALUE CHAINS VULNERABILITY EDUCATION REINFORCE AND DEBT SPENDING SUPPORT FOOD AND INSTITUTIONS AND SUSTAINABILITY WATER SECURITY GOVERNMENT EMPOWER WOMEN CAPACITY SUPPORT CRITICAL DEVELOP GREEN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE EXPAND SOCIAL PROMOTE DIGITAL PROTECTION PROMOTE GREEN CITIES OPPORTUNITIES PROMOTE PRIVATE SUPPORT CITIZEN SECTOR INVESTMENT CONNECT WORKERS MITIGATE CLIMATE ENGAGEMENT AND JOB CREATION TO JOBS SHOCKS 6 MEASURABLE OUTCOMES TO STAY ON COURSE 35 PROMOTE DIGITAL PROTECTION PROMOTE GREEN CITIES OPPORTUNITIES PROMOTE PRIVATE SUPPORT CITIZEN SECTOR INVESTMENT CONNECT WORKERS MITIGATE CLIMATE ENGAGEMENT AND JOB CREATION TO JOBS SHOCKS 6 MEASURABLE OUTCOMES TO STAY ON COURSE INCREASE INCREASE REDUCE ACCESS TO BROADBAND LEARNING ELECTRICITY CONNECTIVITY POVERTY FROM 50% FROM 30% FROM 80% TO 64% TO 43% TO 76% BY 2026 BY 2024 IN 2024 TODAY, MORE THAN TODAY ONLY 26% TODAY 86% OF 2/3RD OF SCHOOLS OF AFRICA’S CHILDREN AT LATE AND HEALTH POPULATION PRIMARY AGE CENTERS HAVE NO HAVE ACCESS ARE NOT PROFICIENT RELIABLE ELECTRICITY TO INTERNET PROFICIENT IN READING INCREASE GIRL’S INCREASE INCREASE SECONDARY CLIMATE 36 TRANSPARENCY SCHOOL CO-BENEFITS AND ACCOUNTABILITY ENROLLMENT FROM IN AFW FINANCING IN PUBLIC AFFAIRS TO 35% INCREASE INCREASE REDUCE ACCESS TO BROADBAND LEARNING ELECTRICITY CONNECTIVITY POVERTY FROM 50% FROM 30% FROM 80% TO 64% TO 43% TO 76% BY 2026 BY 2024 IN 2024 TODAY, MORE THAN TODAY ONLY 26% TODAY 86% OF 2/3RD OF SCHOOLS OF AFRICA’S CHILDREN AT LATE AND HEALTH POPULATION PRIMARY AGE CENTERS HAVE NO HAVE ACCESS ARE NOT PROFICIENT RELIABLE ELECTRICITY TO INTERNET PROFICIENT IN READING INCREASE GIRL’S INCREASE INCREASE SECONDARY CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY SCHOOL CO-BENEFITS AND ACCOUNTABILITY ENROLLMENT FROM IN AFW FINANCING IN PUBLIC AFFAIRS 42% TO 47% TO AN AVERAGE OF 35% BY 2024 OVER FY21-25 TODAY, ONLY WITHOUT COUNTRIES’ SCORE ON 2 OUT OF 5 CLIMATE RESILIENCE, TRANSPARENCY AND GIRLS 43M MORE PEOPLE ACCOUNTABILITY ARE ENROLLED IN AFRICA COULD ARE AMONG THE IN SECONDARY BE PUSHED INTO LOWEST IN THE SCHOOL POVERTY BY 2030 2020 CPIA 37 Western and Central Africa Vice Presidency, The World Bank © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved not to be reproduced