For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects February 26, 2016 Taking Stock  U.S. Q4 GDP revised up, PMIs for major advanced economies fell. U.S. GDP growth in Q4 2015 was revised higher to 1.0 percent (s.a.a.r.), more than expected, from the earlier estimate of 0.7 percent. However, the February flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – an indicator of business activity - for the United States and some other major economies fell further toward the 50 breakeven mark, providing signs of weakness in business activity among the large advanced economies (Figure 1). (A reading above 50 signals expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction). The composite PMI for the U.S. fell to 50.1 from 52.4 in January, on account of a larger-than-expected decline in service sector activity. The composite PMI for the Euro Area declined from 53.6 in January to 52.7 in February, a 13-month low, with both manufacturing and services activity growing at the slowest rate for over a year. The manufacturing PMI for Japan dropped from 52.3 to 50.2, an eight-month low, as output increased at a slower rate, and new orders and new export orders decreased.  British pound fell to a seven-year low. The British pound suffered its biggest one-day decline in nearly seven years against the U.S. dollar this week, as uncertainty over the United Kingdom’s future in the European Union mounted. The pound fell to $1.3885 on Wednesday, its lowest level since February 2009. It recovered somewhat on Thursday as economic data showed that U.K. GDP grew in line with expectations in the fourth quarter of 2015, but has since weakened further.  World merchandise trade in 2015 recorded largest decline since global financial crisis. On Thursday, the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis released data showing that the value of world merchandise trade fell 13.8 percent in dollar terms in 2015, following a 2.0 percent decline in 2014. This greater contraction, the largest since 2009, reflected weaker demand from China and other emerging markets as well as currency movements and the sharp decline in commodity prices. In volume terms, world merchandise trade grew 2.5 percent in 2015, compared with 3.2 percent in 2014.  Moody's downgraded Brazil sovereign credit. On Wednesday, Moody’s Investors Service became the third rating agency to lower Brazil’s credit ratings to junk status. Following Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, Moody’s cut Brazil's rating by two notches to Ba2 from Baa3, stripping the country of its investment grade. It also changed the outlook to negative, indicating further downgrades may be coming. In taking this action, Moody’s cited the prospect of further deterioration in Brazil’s debt, low growth, and a challenging political situation that is likely to hinder fiscal consolidation efforts and delay structural reforms.  Tanzania’s GDP strengthened in Q4. Tanzania’s GDP expanded 7.1 percent (y/y) in Q4, up from 6.3 percent in Q3, boosted by faster growth in the communications, mining and financial services sectors (Figure 2). For 2015 as a whole, GDP grew by 7.1 percent, compared with 7.0 percent in 2014. FIGURE 1 February flash PMI estimates for Euro Area, Japan and FIGURE 2 Tanzania’s GDP growth strengthened in Q4. U.S. fell. Flash PMI’s Real GDP growth Index, expansion > 50 U.S. Composite Percent, y-o-y 65 Euro Area Composite 10 Japan Manufacturing 9 60 8 7 55 6 5 50 4 3 45 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Jan-14 Jul-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Mar-14 May-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Source: Haver Analytics, Markit Economics. Source: Haver Analytics, Trading Economics. Produced by DECPG (Derek Chen). Number 294 | February 26, 2016 Weekly Insight: How do “new generation” trade agreements such as the TPP differ from traditional free trade agreements? On October 4, 2015, 12 Pacific Rim countries concluded negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). As a deep and comprehensive “new generation” trade agreement, the TPP covers traditional barriers to trade in goods and services, investment activities, and other trade-related areas. In the 1990s, before the surge in bilateral and smaller regional agreements of the 2000s, two large Regional Trade Agreement (RTAs) emerged: The European Union (EU) Single market (established in 1993) and the North American Free Trade Agreement between Canada, Mexico, and the United States (NAFTA, established in 1994). Several other RTAs were established in the 1990s, including Mercosur in South America in 1991, the Association of South East Asian Free Trade Area (ASEAN) in 1992, and the South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA) in 1993. By 2015, the number of RTAs reached 274. Earlier RTAs began as initiatives to reduce tariffs (Figure 3). Over time they grew to reduce non-tariff barriers. More recent regional negotiations have, from the outset, focused on more ambitious, deep, and comprehensive agreements. In addition to the TPP, major new negotiations include the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) among 16 Asian economies, and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the European Union and the United States. An even larger Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) among 21 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies is also in early stages of discussion. The rise of regional agreements has rekindled debate on whether they support or impede global efficiency and activity in member and non-member countries. RTAs open markets between partners, leading to a more efficient division of labor, technology spillovers, and related productivity growth. RTAs are also often a step toward larger agreements through the process of competitive liberalization. For example, the European integration project has expanded from six to 28 members so far. NAFTA grew out of an agreement between Canada and the United States, and while it did not itself expand further, it did spawn a network of agreements between its members and third partners. Studies of the political economy of trading blocs point to other positive impacts of RTAs. The domino theory of regionalism argues that as a bloc grows, potential partners likely benefit more from joining, and therefore offer better deals to secure admission. Outside the bloc, the bloc’s policies could become an external anchor for institutional reforms in potential future member countries. While RTAs may significantly benefit members, they can hinder economic activity for non-members. The competitiveness gains developed in these new blocs could potentially divert trade away from more efficient non-member exporters towards less efficient ones – the “trade diversion” effect. In addition, RTAs can result in the erosion in the value of preferences given to Least Developed Countries (LDCs) under existing duty-free, quota-free, preferential schemes, such as the ‘Everything but Arms Initiative” of the European Union and “African Growth and Opportunities Act” of the U.S. RTAs within natural trading blocs – among countries that already trade intensively with each other – tend to have modest diversion effects. As a percentage of their total trade, trade among the prospective member states of TPP, FTAAP, and RECP already exceeds that within NAFTA (Figure 4). FIGURE 3 Earlier RTAs predominantly aimed at reducing tariffs. Figure 4 Trade among the prospective member states of FTAAP, TTIP, TPP and RCEP already exceeds that within NAFTA. Average tariffs Intra-RTA trade Percent EU Percent of current or prospective members’ 8 NAFTA total trade 7 Prospective TPP members 70 60 6 50 5 40 30 4 20 3 10 0 2 RCEP ASEAN TTIP NAFTA FTAAP TPP SAPTA EU MERCOSUR 1 0 2010 2014 1996 2000 2005 Source: World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) database. Source: World Trade Organization’s Regional Trade Agreement database. Produced by DECPG. Number 295 | February 26, 2016 Major Data Releases Fri, 19 Feb - Thu, 25 Feb 2016 Fri, 26 Feb - Thu, 3 Mar 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous France 2/22/16 PMI Manufacturing FEB 50.3 50 50.0 Malaysia 2/28/16 PPI (M-o-M) JAN -1.3% Singapore 2/23/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) JAN -0.6% -0.3% -0.6% Japan 2/28/16 Industrial Production (Y-o-Y) JAN -1.9% Germany 2/23/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% Greece 2/29/16 PPI (Y-o-Y) JAN -7.8% Hungary 2/23/16 Interest Rate Devision - 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% South Korea 3/2/16 Core CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 1.7% Singapore 2/23/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q4 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% Turkey 3/3/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) FEB 9.6% Eurozone 2/25/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) JAN 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% Philippines 3/3/16 PPI (Y-o-Y) JAN -7.2% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.4 4.0 1.7 1.3 1.6 - 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 2.2 1.5 - - High Income Countries 0.6 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.5 3.0 2.2 -1.5 0.3 - 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.1 - - Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 4.9 5.2 5.3 1.0 5.3 3.4 4.9 4.8 6.0 5.0 5.1 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.6 3.7 4.2 3.2 3.9 3.3 3.6 - East Asia and Pacific 9.3 9.0 7.5 7.7 6.4 8.3 2.2 6.7 4.9 8.8 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.4 7.3 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.6 5.8 5.1 5.3 5.9 5.6 - East Asia x. China 6.0 5.6 3.0 7.1 3.9 8.5 -1.9 3.1 3.6 - 3.2 5.4 4.0 3.0 4.9 4.2 2.2 6.5 5.1 1.8 3.1 4.0 3.9 2.0 4.1 4.5 - - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.3 3.4 0.4 1.9 -0.2 0.9 6.5 3.0 - 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.0 1.5 -1.1 1.2 2.1 1.5 1.4 3.8 0.8 4.1 2.7 3.6 3.8 - - Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.4 -0.2 -1.6 -4.7 -4.3 -5.2 - -0.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.2 -2.0 -3.5 -3.8 -4.5 -5.1 -5.6 - - Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.7 -1.4 0.1 28.0 0.8 -18.1 12.3 - - 9.2 17.8 11.0 13.5 7.7 -0.7 -0.6 5.6 4.4 6.7 2.0 1.3 1.2 - - - - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.6 5.0 0.8 -1.7 12.3 8.2 2.1 - 2.0 3.6 -1.5 5.9 4.2 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.3 4.3 5.6 4.2 7.4 3.7 10.6 -2.1 - - Sub-Saharan Africa 3.2 1.1 0.2 1.7 -6.5 10.7 -1.8 -5.6 5.7 - -0.7 6.1 1.5 -0.6 0.5 -1.1 0.1 3.6 -1.7 -0.4 -1.0 5.1 0.7 0.6 -0.7 -1.7 - - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 - Developing Countries 5.2 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 - East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 - Europe and Central Asia 9.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7 6.7 6.5 5.8 7.2 8.1 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.2 7.9 - Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 7.5 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 6.6 5.3 5.0 3.9 5.7 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.5 4.9 5.8 5.8 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.4 5.5 4.4 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3 - South Asia 9.2 9.4 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 3.7 5.0 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa 8.5 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.2 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.7 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.0 - 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.1 2.0 1.0 4.1 1.1 -14.9 -26.0 -3.2 -5.5 -7.5 1.1 2.7 -1.1 -4.1 -3.7 -10.3 -6.4 -12.5 -13.2 -13.1 -7.8 -13.2 -13.3 -12.1 -12.5 -10.9 -9.6 - High Income Countries -1.5 1.5 0.7 1.3 -2.9 -17.8 -26.8 -1.9 -7.2 -8.7 -0.1 0.8 -3.2 -5.9 -5.1 -11.7 -12.5 -12.6 -14.7 -14.8 -9.5 -14.3 -14.8 -12.9 -13.1 -10.9 -11.0 - Developing Countries 4.1 3.2 1.9 10.6 10.9 -8.2 -24.2 -5.7 -1.7 -5.2 3.7 7.1 3.5 0.1 -0.3 -7.1 8.4 -12.4 -9.8 -9.1 -4.0 -10.8 -10.0 -10.4 -11.2 -11.0 -6.7 - East Asia and Pacific 6.2 6.4 4.6 18.9 17.7 -1.2 -15.6 -11.2 3.4 -1.3 8.2 12.5 8.0 3.5 4.9 -3.3 29.5 -11.5 -6.5 -4.3 0.7 -7.8 -6.2 -5.4 -7.9 -7.6 -3.9 - Europe and Central Asia 3.2 -0.3 -1.5 -7.9 -11.2 -27.8 -16.9 -15.4 -9.4 -15.7 -4.6 -2.4 -6.1 -10.7 -14.1 -13.8 -16.5 -18.6 -16.7 -21.5 -15.9 -21.2 -16.7 -14.9 -14.4 -15.7 -13.0 - Latin America and Caribbean 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.3 1.9 -21.9 -18.3 -4.2 -9.4 -8.2 0.6 1.1 -3.5 -7.5 -6.0 -7.9 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.0 -14.1 -10.8 -11.0 -8.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 5.0 -11.1 -7.4 -1.6 26.0 -11.3 -59.9 - - - -1.7 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.1 -15.4 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.6 8.7 1.1 -1.6 -45.5 4.2 -9.6 -12.3 0.9 0.2 -6.2 9.5 -1.0 -7.5 -12.4 -17.2 -12.8 -16.8 -10.0 -10.3 -13.2 -23.2 -14.7 -25.0 -13.7 - Sub-Saharan Africa -2.4 -1.1 -5.5 -12.7 -0.4 -18.9 -53.7 12.1 -21.9 - -10.0 -2.0 -7.6 -7.5 -8.8 -25.4 -28.7 -18.8 -23.4 -15.34 -19.8 -23.2 -21.3 -28.3 - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.5 1.2 -1.5 -0.8 -15.3 -29.3 -2.7 -4.5 -7.6 0.9 3.8 -2.1 -4.1 -3.5 -13.3 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.2 -9.0 -13.1 -12.6 -15.2 -13.2 -10.4 -11.5 - High Income Countries -1.0 0.5 1.8 0.3 -4.3 -17.3 -27.2 -2.7 -3.7 -8.5 0.7 2.3 -3.4 -5.2 -4.0 -13.1 -13.0 -12.4 -14.9 -15.2 -10.2 -14.5 -12.0 -13.4 -11.9 -9.6 -11.8 - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 -0.1 -5.8 7.9 -10.5 -33.8 -3.0 -6.4 -5.6 1.3 7.3 0.8 -1.4 -2.6 -13.7 -12.8 -9.0 -12.5 -15.3 -6.0 -9.5 -13.8 -19.3 -16.4 -12.3 -10.8 - East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -12.5 9.4 -12.5 -37.1 1.1 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 6.7 2.6 -5.3 -4.6 -17.4 -16.9 -9.5 -14.0 -15.7 -5.3 -9.0 -14.2 -19.5 -18.1 -8.5 -8.3 - Europe and Central Asia 0.7 2.5 -6.2 -8.1 -7.9 -9.7 -28.1 -19.8 -15.2 1.3 -4.7 -5.5 -8.3 -9.4 -10.6 -15.4 -13.5 -12.7 -17.5 -18.4 -14.3 -15.0 -17.7 -22.6 -14.5 -18.4 -15.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 3.8 3.8 1.7 2.0 3.5 -6.7 -17.1 -15.9 -6.4 -15.7 1.7 8.8 -3.1 2.5 4.7 -7.2 -7.0 -0.4 -10.5 -14.2 -3.4 -9.6 -12.0 -13.3 -13.0 -11.5 -16.9 - Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.4 -6.5 11.9 -17.7 -23.3 - - - 10.3 5.1 -1.6 -4.3 -2.2 -11.1 -7.0 -11.3 -7.5 - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.7 1.2 7.5 29.3 -10.1 -53.7 22.4 1.5 -15.9 5.0 23.7 6.8 21.9 -1.8 -12.2 -13.3 -12.8 -7.4 -11.9 -10.3 -9.1 -11.3 -24.1 -18.4 -25.4 -3.9 - Sub-Saharan Africa 3.8 5.9 5.0 18.1 -1.9 3.2 -26.9 - - - 6.9 9.0 4.5 3.1 7.8 -1.9 1.9 -9.9 -10.7 - - - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -1.6 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -1.2 0.1 - Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 -0.1 -4.0 -3.5 0.0 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 -2.0 -1.8 -2.2 East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -4.9 -4.4 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.3 -4.4 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.5 -3.0 - Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 -3.2 -1.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.8 -1.3 0.8 -0.3 Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.2 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -6.0 1.6 - - -1.1 -2.3 -0.3 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.2 - - - - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 -0.8 0.9 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.9 -0.7 0.7 -0.9 Produced by DECPG (Xinghao Gong). Number 295 | February 26, 2016 Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.4 4.0 1.7 1.3 1.6 - 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 2.2 1.5 - - High Income Countries 0.6 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.5 3.0 2.2 -1.5 0.3 - 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.1 - - Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 4.9 5.2 5.3 1.0 5.3 3.4 4.9 4.8 6.0 5.0 5.1 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.6 3.7 4.2 3.2 3.9 3.3 3.6 - East Asia and Pacific 9.3 9.0 7.5 7.7 6.4 8.3 2.2 6.7 4.9 8.8 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.4 7.3 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.6 5.8 5.1 5.3 5.9 5.6 - East Asia x. China 6.0 5.6 3.0 7.1 3.9 8.5 -1.9 3.1 3.6 - 3.2 5.4 4.0 3.0 4.9 4.2 2.2 6.5 5.1 1.8 3.1 4.0 3.9 2.0 4.1 4.5 - - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.3 3.4 0.4 1.9 -0.2 0.9 6.5 3.0 - 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.0 1.5 -1.1 1.2 2.1 1.5 1.4 3.8 0.8 4.1 2.7 3.6 3.8 - - Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.4 -0.2 -1.6 -4.7 -4.3 -5.2 - -0.5 -0.9 -0.4 -1.5 -1.0 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -2.8 -3.2 -2.0 -3.5 -3.8 -4.5 -5.1 -5.6 - - Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.7 -1.4 0.1 28.0 0.8 -18.1 12.3 - - 9.2 17.8 11.0 13.5 7.7 -0.7 -0.6 5.6 4.4 6.7 2.0 1.3 1.2 - - - - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.6 5.0 0.8 -1.7 12.3 8.2 2.1 - 2.0 3.6 -1.5 5.9 4.2 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.3 4.3 5.6 4.2 7.4 3.7 10.6 -2.1 - - Sub-Saharan Africa 3.2 1.1 0.2 1.7 -6.5 10.7 -1.8 -5.6 5.7 - -0.7 6.1 1.5 -0.6 0.5 -1.1 0.1 3.6 -1.7 -0.4 -1.0 5.1 0.7 0.6 -0.7 -1.7 - - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 - Developing Countries 5.2 5.0 4.5 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 - East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 - Europe and Central Asia 9.9 7.2 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7 6.7 6.5 5.8 7.2 8.1 7.9 8.0 8.0 7.2 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 5.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.2 7.9 - Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 7.5 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 6.6 5.3 5.0 3.9 5.7 5.8 5.1 5.8 4.5 4.9 5.8 5.8 6.2 5.8 5.4 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.5 6.4 5.5 4.4 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.3 - South Asia 9.2 9.4 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 3.7 5.0 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.3 - Sub-Saharan Africa 8.5 6.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.2 5.9 6.4 6.9 7.7 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.3 6.4 6.7 6.8 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.6 8.0 - 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.1 2.0 1.0 4.1 1.1 -14.9 -26.0 -3.2 -5.5 -7.5 1.1 2.7 -1.1 -4.1 -3.7 -10.3 -6.4 -12.5 -13.2 -13.1 -7.8 -13.2 -13.3 -12.1 -12.5 -10.9 -9.6 - High Income Countries -1.5 1.5 0.7 1.3 -2.9 -17.8 -26.8 -1.9 -7.2 -8.7 -0.1 0.8 -3.2 -5.9 -5.1 -11.7 -12.5 -12.6 -14.7 -14.8 -9.5 -14.3 -14.8 -12.9 -13.1 -10.9 -11.0 - Developing Countries 4.1 3.2 1.9 10.6 10.9 -8.2 -24.2 -5.7 -1.7 -5.2 3.7 7.1 3.5 0.1 -0.3 -7.1 8.4 -12.4 -9.8 -9.1 -4.0 -10.8 -10.0 -10.4 -11.2 -11.0 -6.7 - East Asia and Pacific 6.2 6.4 4.6 18.9 17.7 -1.2 -15.6 -11.2 3.4 -1.3 8.2 12.5 8.0 3.5 4.9 -3.3 29.5 -11.5 -6.5 -4.3 0.7 -7.8 -6.2 -5.4 -7.9 -7.6 -3.9 - Europe and Central Asia 3.2 -0.3 -1.5 -7.9 -11.2 -27.8 -16.9 -15.4 -9.4 -15.7 -4.6 -2.4 -6.1 -10.7 -14.1 -13.8 -16.5 -18.6 -16.7 -21.5 -15.9 -21.2 -16.7 -14.9 -14.4 -15.7 -13.0 - Latin America and Caribbean 2.5 0.6 0.0 7.3 1.9 -21.9 -18.3 -4.2 -9.4 -8.2 0.6 1.1 -3.5 -7.5 -6.0 -7.9 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.0 -14.1 -10.8 -11.0 -8.8 - Middle East and N. Africa 5.0 -11.1 -7.4 -1.6 26.0 -11.3 -59.9 - - - -1.7 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.1 -15.4 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.6 8.7 1.1 -1.6 -45.5 4.2 -9.6 -12.3 0.9 0.2 -6.2 9.5 -1.0 -7.5 -12.4 -17.2 -12.8 -16.8 -10.0 -10.3 -13.2 -23.2 -14.7 -25.0 -13.7 - Sub-Saharan Africa -2.4 -1.1 -5.5 -12.7 -0.4 -18.9 -53.7 12.1 -21.9 - -10.0 -2.0 -7.6 -7.5 -8.8 -25.4 -28.7 -18.8 -23.4 -15.34 -19.8 -23.2 -21.3 -28.3 - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.5 1.2 -1.5 -0.8 -15.3 -29.3 -2.7 -4.5 -7.6 0.9 3.8 -2.1 -4.1 -3.5 -13.3 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.2 -9.0 -13.1 -12.6 -15.2 -13.2 -10.4 -11.5 - High Income Countries -1.0 0.5 1.8 0.3 -4.3 -17.3 -27.2 -2.7 -3.7 -8.5 0.7 2.3 -3.4 -5.2 -4.0 -13.1 -13.0 -12.4 -14.9 -15.2 -10.2 -14.5 -12.0 -13.4 -11.9 -9.6 -11.8 - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 -0.1 -5.8 7.9 -10.5 -33.8 -3.0 -6.4 -5.6 1.3 7.3 0.8 -1.4 -2.6 -13.7 -12.8 -9.0 -12.5 -15.3 -6.0 -9.5 -13.8 -19.3 -16.4 -12.3 -10.8 - East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -12.5 9.4 -12.5 -37.1 1.1 -3.3 -1.5 -0.3 6.7 2.6 -5.3 -4.6 -17.4 -16.9 -9.5 -14.0 -15.7 -5.3 -9.0 -14.2 -19.5 -18.1 -8.5 -8.3 - Europe and Central Asia 0.7 2.5 -6.2 -8.1 -7.9 -9.7 -28.1 -19.8 -15.2 1.3 -4.7 -5.5 -8.3 -9.4 -10.6 -15.4 -13.5 -12.7 -17.5 -18.4 -14.3 -15.0 -17.7 -22.6 -14.5 -18.4 -15.4 - Latin America and Caribbean 3.8 3.8 1.7 2.0 3.5 -6.7 -17.1 -15.9 -6.4 -15.7 1.7 8.8 -3.1 2.5 4.7 -7.2 -7.0 -0.4 -10.5 -14.2 -3.4 -9.6 -12.0 -13.3 -13.0 -11.5 -16.9 - Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.4 -6.5 11.9 -17.7 -23.3 - - - 10.3 5.1 -1.6 -4.3 -2.2 -11.1 -7.0 -11.3 -7.5 - - - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.7 1.2 7.5 29.3 -10.1 -53.7 22.4 1.5 -15.9 5.0 23.7 6.8 21.9 -1.8 -12.2 -13.3 -12.8 -7.4 -11.9 -10.3 -9.1 -11.3 -24.1 -18.4 -25.4 -3.9 - Sub-Saharan Africa 3.8 5.9 5.0 18.1 -1.9 3.2 -26.9 - - - 6.9 9.0 4.5 3.1 7.8 -1.9 1.9 -9.9 -10.7 - - - - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -1.6 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.5 -1.2 0.2 - Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 -0.1 -4.0 -3.5 0.0 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 -2.0 -1.8 -2.2 East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -4.9 -4.4 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.3 -4.4 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.8 0.0 -1.5 -3.0 - Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 -3.2 -1.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.8 -1.3 0.8 -0.2 Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.2 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -6.0 1.6 - - -1.1 -2.3 -0.3 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.2 - - - - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 -0.8 0.9 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.9 -0.4 0.7 -0.9 Produced by DECPG (Xinghao Gong). Number 295 | February 26, 2016