PACIFIC CATASTROPHE RIS S AKIRBAT SEPTEMBER 2011 COUNTRY RISK PROFILE: KIRIBATI Kiribati is expected to incur, on average, about 0.3 million USD per year in losses due to earthquakes and tropical cyclones. In the next 50 years, Kiribati has a 50% chance of experiencing a loss exceeding 1 million USD and casualties larger than 10 people, and a 10% chance of experiencing a loss exceeding 40 million USD and casualties larger than 200 people. BETTER RISK INFORMATION FOR SMARTER INVESTMENTS COUNTRY RISK PROFILE KIRIBAT POPULATION, BUILDINGS, INFRASTRUCTURE AND CROPS EXPOSED TO NATURAL PERILS 170'E 175*E 1801 175oW 170'W 165'W 160*W 155*W 150'W An extensive study has been conducted to assemble a - - dldFi comprehensive inventory of population and properties at risk. Properties include residential, commercial, public and industrial buildings; infrastructure assets such as major ports, Tarawa C airports, power plants, bridges, and roads; and major crops, such as coconut, palm oil, rice and many others. TABLE 1: ilometrs Summary of Exposure in Kiribati (2010) General Information: Taraw a Total Population: 101,400 024 8 GDP Per Capita (USD): 1,490 048 16 Total GDP (million USD): 151.2 Asset Counts: Residential Buildings: 24,879 Public Buildings: 1,103 Commercial, Industrial, and Other Buildings: 1,607 u idnta K All Buildings: 27,589 0 Cercial L Hectares of Major Crops: 18,633 0 Industrial Cost of Replacing Assets (million USD): 0 Public Buildings: 1,006 048 -16 Infrastructure: 164 STh Kilometers Crops: 11 Tarawa A Total: 1,181 Abaiang Government Revenue and Expenditure: Figure 1: Building locations. Total Government Revenue 1700E 175'E 180, 175'W 170'W 165*W 1600W 155'W 150'W (Million USD): 93.1 - Pbaian - i (% GDP): 61.6% 0 Total Government Expenditure S (Million USD): 108.9 Tarawa 0 500 1,000 2,000 (% GDP): 72.0%L 1 Data assembled from various references including WB,ADB, IMF and The Secretariat of the - Pacific Community (SPC). ilometers 4.1 2 The projected 2010 population was trended from the 2006 census using estimated growth rates provided by SPC. Taraw a Table 1 summarizes population and the inventory of buildings, 0 2 4 8 infrastructure assets, and major crops (or "exposure") at risk 0 4 8 16 as well as key economic values for Kiribati. It is estimated te _ _ _ 1 that the replacement value of all the assets in Kiribati is 1.2 Kilometers billion USD of which about 85% represents buildings and 14% represents infrastructure. 0- 0.25 Kiritimati Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the building exposure location and 0250.5 replacement cost distribution, respectively. The footprints of 0.75 almost 13,000 of the approximately 28,000 buildings shown in 1 - 1.5 Figure 1 were digitized from high-resolution satellite imagery. Replacement About 750 of such buildings, all in the urban areas of Tarawa, 55 oS Dnsit1 were also field surveyed and photographed by a team of ohKlme inspectors deployed for this purpose. Figure 3 displays the Tarawa Abaiang land cover/land use map that includes the location of major crops. The data utilized for these exhibits was assembled, Figure 2: Building replacement cost density by island. organized and, when unavailable, produced in this study. September 2011 COUNTRY RISK PROFILE: KIRIBATI 170__E 175EE 180 175-W 170 W 165-W 16WW 155"W 150W Ta rawa 0 W0 1.000 000O rTaaawa Tarawa 70 500 1,000 2.0100 N 024 8 Born rs __ 1 * 0 4 8 16 Kilometers Kilometers Tarawa 024 8 0 4 8 16 Kliritimati Kilometers K iritimati 0~ 04 816 South Kilometer Trawa Abaiang Lend Cover /Land Use Cloud Grass Land Palm Oil Sand Bay Water 0 4 8 -16 Coonut Crops Open Land Rice Forest South 7lometers Coconut Forest Other - Saft Pan - Settlement Tarawa Abaiang Figure 3: Land cover/land use map. 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 TROPICAL CYCLONE AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS I IN KIRIBATI Maximum Wind Speed The Pacific islands region is prone to natural hazards. Both Figure 4: Maximum 1-minute sustained wind speed (in miles per hour) with a 40% areas north and south of the equator are known for the chance to be exceeded at least once in the next 50 years (100-year mean return period). frequent occurrence of tropical cyclones with damaging 170-E 175' E law~ 175-W 17w W 165' W 160' W 155-W 150-W winds, rains and storm surge between the months of October Y idF1 and May in the South Pacific and throughout the year in the c _ _r_t_ _ North Pacific. In the last 60 years, in the Pacific region from Taiwan to New Zealand in latitude and from Indonesia to Tarawa east of Hawaii in longitude, almost 1,000 tropical cyclones 0 500 1,00 with hurricane-force winds spawned south of the equator Ie and more than 1,400 north of the equator, with an average __ _____ I I o I - - - -U - of about 41 tropical storms each year. The archipelago is Tarawa dispersed over 3.5 million square kilometers straddling the 0 2 4 equator where tropical cyclones are rare. Kiribati experiences 048 16 tropical storms and depressions, but they usually do not cause iloM wind speeds strong enough to categorize them as tropical cyclones. For example, in 1978 tropical cyclone Alice spawned as a tropical depression in Kiribati and crossed the island of Kiritimati Tarawa causing minor damage, but developed into a full- blown tropical cyclone much later when it hit the Republic of Marshall Islands. Figure 4 shows the levels of wind speed due to tropical cyclones that have about a 40% chance to 048-16 be exceeded at least once in the next 50 years (100-year South mean return period). These wind speeds, if they were to Tarawa Abaiang occur, are capable of generating minor damage to buildings, infrastructure and crops. Moderare/ Ver Potential Damage tone tone none Vy ig hr ight Moderate Heav C eavy Heaw I ea AC %g 1 9*t7 19 . 11 1.4 1 5- 12-1 117 132-61 161-1141>14 Kiribati is situated in a relatively quiet seismic area but is eakVel.lcmIsl t 4 .4- I at t1 3159 51 >ts surrounded by the Pacific "ring of fire," which aligns with Instrumentalintensity I I1-Ill IV V I vIA the boundaries of the tectonic plates. These boundaries are ScalebaseduponWaldetal:1999 Figure 5: Peak horizontal acceleration of the ground (Note: Ig is equal to the extremely active seismic zones capable of generating large acceleration of gravity) that has about a 40% chance to be exceeded at least once in earthquakes and, in some cases, major tsunamis that can the next 50 years (1 00-year mean return period). September 2011 COUNTRY RISK PROFILE: KIRIBATI travel great distances. For example, in 1899 an earthquake- induced tsunami reached the shores of Kiribati and caused g itinnati moderate losses. Figure 5 shows that Kiribati has a 40% chance in the next 50 years of experiencing, at least once, a weak levels of ground shaking. These levels of shaking are not expected to cause significant damage to buildings and 0 500 1,00 ,000 infrastructure. Kilometers I XI ij RISK ANALYSIS RESULTS Tarawa To estimate the risk profile for Kiribati posed by tropical 0 4 8 16 cyclones and earthquakes, a simulation model of potential Kilometers Kilometers storms and earthquakes that may affect the country in the future was constructed. This model, based on historical data, simulates more than 400,000 tropical cyclones and Kiritimati about 7.6 million earthquakes, grouped in 10,000 potential 0.5-1.0 LII1.0 -2.5 realizations of the next year's activity in the entire Pacific 2.5-5.0 Basin. The catalog of simulated earthquakes also includes 15-25 AnnualLoss large magnitude events in South and North America, Japan 193 (thousand USD) 04816 and the Philippines, which could generate tsunamis that may '-\T Kime affect Kiribati's shores. Figure 7: Contribution from the different islands to the average annual loss for tropical The country's earthquake and tropical cyclone risk profiles cyclone and earthquake (ground shaking and tsunami). are derived from an estimation of the direct losses to buildings, infrastructure assets and major crops caused by ,Xai!t! all the simulated potential future events. The direct losses include the cost of repairing or replacing the damaged assets but do not include other losses such as contents losses, Tarawa business interruption losses and losses to primary industries 0 500 1,00 ,000 other than agriculture. The direct losses for tropical cyclones are caused by wind and flooding due to rain and storm surge, while losses for earthquakes are caused by ground shaking 0 024 8 and tsunami inundation. After assessing the cost of repairing 0 4 8 16 or rebuilding the damaged assets due to the impact of all the K simulated potential future events, it is possible to estimate in a probabilistic sense the severity of losses for future catastrophes. i . Kiritimati Tropical Cyclone Earthquake MI 0.01%-0.02% Average Loss Annual = 0.04 million USD Average Annual Loss = 0.25 million USD 0.8% 16.6% 1.0M 0 EBuildings EBuildings 0 4 6 16 in Cash Crops A ah CropsSo t ~ CoSdosso uth Klmte rs El Infrastructure Ei infrastructureTa waKlm tr Ta aa Abwan 69.1% 82.4% Figure 6: Average annual loss due to tropical cyclones and earthquakes (ground Figure 8: Contribution from the different islands to the tropical cyclone and earthquake shaking and tsunami) and its contribution from the three types of assets. (ground shaking and tsunami) average annual loss divided by the replacement cost of the assets in each island. The simulations of possible next-year tropical cyclone and in Figure 7 and normalized by the total asset values in each earthquake activity show that some years will see no storms island in Figure 8. Figure 8 shows how the relative risk varies or earthquakes affecting Kiribati, while other years may see by island across the country. one or more events affecting the islands, similar to what has happened historically. The annual losses averaged over the The same risk assessment carried out for Kiribati was also many realizations of next-year activity are shown in Figure performed for the 14 other Pacific Island Countries. The values 6 separately for tropical cyclone and for earthquake and of the average annual loss of Kiribati and of the other 14 tsunami, while the contributions to the average annual loss countries are compared in Figure 9. from the different islands are displayed in absolute terms September 2011 COUNTRY RISK PROFILE: KIRIBATI Tropical Cyclone Earthquake Ground Motion sTsunan LA 100 10 2 0 -6 Fiue9 _vrg Annuareloompleteallcture5 ofcthicrislananCuntriesnconsideredei t10, which shows the mean return period of direct losses in raemillion USD generated by earthquake, tsunami and tropical o cyclones combined. The 50-, 100-, and 250- year mean return -40 -,O . period losses in Table 2 can also be determined from the 20 curves in this figure. The direct losses are expressed both in Theabsolute terms and as a percent of the national GDR the4In addition to causing damage and losses to the built environment and crops, future earthquakes and tropical Figure 9: Average annual loss for all the 15 Pacific Island Countries considered in cyclones will also have an impact on population. The same this study. probabilistic procedure described above for losses has been In addition to estimating average risk per calendar year, adopted to estimate the likelihood that different levels of another way of assessing risk is to examine large and casualties (i.e., fatalities and injuries) may result from the rather infrequent, but possible, future tropical cyclone and future occurrence of these events. As shown in Table 2, our earthquake losses. Table 2 summarizes the risk profile for model estimates, for example, that there is a 40% chance Kiribati in terms of both direct losses and emergency losses, in the next fifty years (100-year mean return period) that The former are the expenditures needed to repair or replace one or more events in a calendar year will cause casualties the damaged assets while the latter are the expenditures exceeding 25 in Kiribati. Tsunamis causing hundreds or more that the Kiribati government may need to incur in the casualties are also possible but have much lower likelihood aftermath of a natural catastrophe to provide necessary of occurring. relief and conduct activities such as debris removal, setting up shelters for homeless or supplying medicine and food. TABLE 2: Estimated Losses and Casualties Caused by Natural Perils The emergency losses are estimated as a percentage of the Mean Return Period AAL 50 100 250 direct losses. (years) 50 -T.E Risk Profile: Tropical Cyclone - T+E S40 - -TCDietLs s11 (% GDP) 0.% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 30 Emergency Losses 20 --(Million USID) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 (% of total government 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Mean Return Period (years) expenditures) Casualties 0 2 4 11 40% - TC+EQ Risk Profile: Earthquake and Tsunami 30% -- TC I_ - -- EQ Direct Losses 20% (Million LID) 0.3 0.0 0.8 29.3 O10% ___ __ _(% GDP) 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 194 53 Emergency Losses 10% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 (Million USI) 0.1 0.0 0.2 6.7 Mean Return Period (years) (% of total government 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 6.2% expenditures) Figure 10: Direct losses caused by either tropical storms or earthquakes that are Casualties 1 0 6 124 expected to be equaled or exceeded, on average, once in the time period indicated. Losses represented in absolute terms and normalized by GDP. Risk Profile: Tropical Cyclone Earthquake, and Tsunami Direct Losses Table 2 includes the losses that are expected to be exceeded, (Million USD) 0.3 0.4 4.0 30.1 on average, once every 50, 100, and 250 years. For example, (% GDP) 0.2% 0.3% 2.6% 19.9% a tropical cyclone loss exceeding 0.4 million USD, which Emergency Losses is equivalent to about 0.2% of Kiribati's GDP, is to be (Million USD) 0.1 0.1 0.8 6.9 expected on average once every 100 years. In Kiribati, losses generated by tropical cyclones are rare although wind and expenditures) flood losses from weaker tropical storms and depressions Casualties 1 4 28 135 are not uncommon. Losses due to earthquake ground shaking and tsunami are also expected to be infrequent. mCasualties include fatalities and injuries. September 2011 APPLICATIONS their fiscal balance. The earthquake and tropical cyclone The country risk profiles can support multiple applications hazard models also provide critical information for building that benefit both public and private stakeholders. In urban codes in terms of country-specific seismic and wind loads and development planning, planners can use the risk that buildings should be designed for to ensure adequate profile information to identify the best location of new shelter to the population. The risk information can also help development areas, evaluate how natural hazards may identify existing vulnerable areas and communities located shape their development, and to assess whetherthe benefits in or adjacent to these areas. This information can assist in of reducing the risk of natural events justify the costs of supporting more targeted intervention in community-based implementing the risk mitigating measures. In addition, disaster risk management and climate change adaptation the risk profiles can inform the development of disaster actions. In the occurrence of a natural disaster the database risk financing and insurance solutions and ex ante budget also provides extremely useful baseline data and information planning options to increase the financial resilience of the for conducting timely and effective post-disaster damage countries against natural disasters while maintaining assessments. _ U Secretariat of the Pacific Community Applied Geoscience and Technology Division (SOPAC) THE WORLD BANK * GFDRR Global Facility for Disste Reuc IanRe ve For information please visit http://pacrisk.sopac.org/ A 4A IR W O RLDW IDE or contact pcrafi@sopac.org