FILE COPY Report No. 2933-IN Economic Situation and Prospects of India May 1, 1980 South Asia Region FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY AND OTHER EQUIVALENTS Currency Prior to June 6, 1966: US$1.00 = Rs 4.7619 Rs 1.00 = US$0.21 From June 6, 1966 to US$1.00 = Rs 7.50 mid-December 1971: Rs 1.00 = US$0.13333 Mid-December 1971 to US$1.00 = Rs 7.27927 end-June 1972: Rs 1.00 = US$0.1374 After end-June 1972: floating rate Spot rate (end-December US$1.00 = Rs 7.907 1979) Rs 1.00 = US$0.126 Rupee trade figures have been converted into dollars by using the prevailing exchange rate up to 1970/71. For subsequent years the following average IMF trade conversion factors/market rates have been used (rupees per US dollar): 1971/72 : 7.444 1975/76 : 8.653 1972/73 : 7.706 1976/77 8.939 1973/74 : 7.791 1977/78 8.563 1974/75 : 7.976 1978/79 : 8.206 For 1979/80, the average market rate for the first nine months was Rs 8.104. For the year as a whole the rate of Rs 8.1 has been used. Weights Unless otherwise specified all weight measures are metric. Years lThe Indian fiscal year runs from April 1 through March 31. Abbreviations Used n.a. not available n.s. = not significant (blank) = not applicable a - = nil FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY This report was prepared in New Delhi by members of the World Bank Resident Mission in India and of the India Division at the World Bank head- quarters under the guidance of J.-D. Roulet (Resident Mission Chief) and 0. Yenal (Principal Economist). The major contributors were G. Beir and J. Wall. The report drew on the studies prepared by M. Baird (Balance of Payments and Foreign Aid), Z. Ecevit and K. Zachariah (Population and Family Planning), R. Grawe (Exports), J. Harrison (Agriculture), N. Krogh-Poulsen (Transporta- tion), A. Pinell-Siles (Cement), S. Sengupta (Coal) and C. Wallich (Power). V. Ravishankar assisted in the statistical work. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF INDIA Table of Contents Page No. Basic Data Map Summary and Conclusions ......................... -v Chapter 1. Current Developments ........................... 1 A. Introduction ......................1 B. The Drought ...................................... 2 C. The Shortages .................................... 4 D. Drought Relief ................................... 9 E. Inflation ............................-- 13 Annex to Chapter 1 : Inflationary Process in India ......... 16 Chapter 2. Agricultural Prices and Output ................. 26 A. Prices and Production of Foodgrains .... .......... 26 B. Foodgrain Supply and Demand Projections .... ...... 33 C. Implications ..................................... 39 Chapter 3. Infrastructure ................................. 43 A. Introduction ..................................... 43 B. Coal ............................................. 45 C. Cement ...........--------- 52 D. Electric Power ................................... 56 E. Freight Transportation ........................... 63 F. Petroleum ....................................... 73 Chapter 4. Resources and Balance of Payments .... .......... 82 A. Introduction ..................................... 82 B. Balance of Payments .............................. 84 C. Trade and Aid .................................... 89 Annex to Chapter 4 : Balance of Payments Projections ....... 100 Appendix : Population and Family Planning .................. 116 Page No. A. Demographic Experience ........................... 116 B. The Family Welfare Program ....................... 119 C. Demographic Prospects ............................ 129 Statistical Appendix (including List of Tables) - iii- Page No. List of Text Tables Chapter 1 1.1 Agricultural Output .............................. 4 Annex to Chapter 1 A.1.1 Prices, Money, Output ............................ 18 Chapter 2 2.1 Wholesale Price Indices: All Commodities and Foodgrains, 1958-1977 ...... ...................... 27 2.2 Price Indices: Cereals and Other Agricultural Commodities ........ .............................. 31 2.3 Area, Yield, Price and Production of Major Crops, 1965/66-1977/78 Annual Growth Rates .... ........ 32 2.4 Groundnut Oil Prices, Paired Observations Bombay and European Ports .41 Chapter 3 3.1 Coal Consumption by Industry .46 3.2 Coal Production 1974/75-1978/79 .47 3.3 Loss of Production in Coal India Limited, 1977/78-1979/80 .47 3.4 Coal Production Estimates .50 3.5 Cement Producer Prices .54 3.6 Cement Demand and Production: Projections 55 3.7 Electricity Energy Shortage in 1978/79 and Growth of Generation in First Semester, 1979/80 .57 3.8 Thermal Power Plant Performance Indicators 59 3.9 Causes of Capacity Under-Utilization in Thermal Power Plants, 1977/78 .61 3.10 Traffic Density on National Highways .67 3.11 Port Cargo Traffic .69 3.12 Berthing Delays at India's Ports, August 1979 70 3.13 Bombay Port: Output per Gang Hour .71 3.14 Projection of Crude Petroleum Production 1982/83 through 1984/85 .74 3.15 Petroleum and Petroleum Products, Production and Imports, 1975/76-1979/80 .76 3.16 Petroleum Production and Imports 1980/81-1984/85 Projection A .77 3.17 Petroleum Production and Imports 1980/81-1984/85 Projection B .78 3.18 Projections of Petroleum Import Costs 1980/81- 1984/85 .79 3.19 Ratio of Import Cost to.Domestic Market Price, 1976 and 1979 .80 - iv - List of Text Tables (continued) Page No. Chapter 4 4.1 Percentage Rates of Growth of Exports, Imports and Terms of Trade ...... ......................... 86 4.2 Balance of Payments .............................. 90 4.3 Aid Commitments and Disbursements .... ............ 93 4.4 Aid Commitments and Disbursements -- Shares of Major Donor Groups .95 4.5 Aid Commitments and Disbursements -- Composition by Types of Aid .96 4.6 Gross Aid Disbursements Under Alternative Scenarios .99 Annex to Chapter 4 A.4.1 Indian Export Performance 1977/78 - 1979/80 101 A.4.2 Net Invisible Receipts .102 A.4.3 Merchandise Imports .103 A.4.4 POL Production and Imports .104 A.4.5 Net Invisible Receipts .108 A.4.6 Non-Factor Payments .109 A.4.7 Travel Receipts .110 A.4.8 Investment Income .ill A.4.9 Projections of Gross Aid Disbursements - 1980/81-1982/83 .112 A.4.10 Fertilizer Imports .113 A.4.11 POL Imports .114 A.4.12 Edible Oil Imports .115 Appendix A.1 Fertility Differentials in India, 1972 ............ 118 A.2 Interstate Variations in Birth Rates ............... 119 A.3 Plan Outlays for Family Welfare Program .... ...... 122 A.4 Selected Family Planning Performance Indicators, 1973/74-1978/79 ................................. 123 A.5 Family Planning Performance by Method ........... 124 A.6 Socio-Economic Indicators and Family Planning Performance -- Selected States .127 A.7 Maternal and Child Health Program Beneficiaries, 1975/76-1978/79 ................................. 128 A.8 Population Projections for India .... ........... 132 A.9 Projection of India's Population Assuming NRR=l in Year 2000 .133 -v- Page No. List of Graphs Chapter 1 1.1 Index of Rainfall Effectiveness for Crop Production 3 1.2 Foodgrain Production - Trends and Estimates .... ......... 5 1.3 Coal Production ......................................... 6 1.4 Mandays Lost Due to Labor Disputes ...................... 8 1.5 Indices of Per Capita Foodgrain Consumption, Per Capita Income and Real Price of Foodgrain .11 Annex to Chapter 1 A.1.1 Trend of Money Supply, Real Output and Price Level 17 A.1.2 Trend of Wholesale Prices .19 A.1.3 Analysis of Agricultural Price Movement .21 A.1.4 Trend of Agricultural Prices .22 A.1.5 Trend of Industrial Prices .23 Chapter 2 2.1 Rice Prices ............................................. 29 2.2 Wheat Prices ............ 30 2.3 Price Index : Foodgrains, Fertilizers, All Commodities Except Foodgrains ........................... 34 2.4 Foodgrain Supply and Demand, Trends and Projections ..... 36 Chapter 4 4.1 Saving and Fiscal Ratios ................................. 83 4.2 Balance of Payments ..................................... 85 4.3 Aid Commitments and Disbursements ....................... 94 Annex to Chapter 4 A.4.1 Other Imports ..................... 106 Appendix A.1 Time Pattern of Sterilization in India .125 P-at 1 INDIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET RZErERNCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AAGES LAND AREA (THOUSAND SQ. KM.) INDA - MOST RECENT ESTIATE) R TOTAL 3287.6 SAKE SAME NEXT HIGHER AGRICULTURAL 1818.3 M'ST RECENT SEOGRAPYIC INCOME INCOME 1960 tb 1970 lb ESTIMATE b REGION /c GROUP 1 GROUP e GNP PER CAPITA (USS) 60.0 90.0 180.0 191.1 209.6 467.5 ENEGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (RGIYGRAMS OF COAL EQUIIVALEITT) 142.0 181.0 218.0 69.1 83.9 262.1 POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS POPULATION, MID-YEAa (MILLIONS) 434.9 547.6 631.7f URBAN POPULATION (PERCENT O TOTAL) 17.9 19.7 20.7. 13.2 16.2 24.6 POPULATION PROJECTIONS POPULATION IN YEAR 2000 (NLLIONS) 973.0 STATIONAMY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 1643.0 YEAR STATIONARY POPULATION IS REACHED 2150 POPULATION DENSITY PER SQ. KM. 132.0 167.0 192.0 86.6 49.4 45.3 PER SQ. g4. AGRICULTURAL LAND 247.0 308.0 347.0 330.2 252.0 149.0 POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT) 0-14 YRS. 40.8 42.5 42.0 44.3 43.1 45.2 15-64 YRS. 55.7 54.6 55.0 52.4 53.2 51.9 65 YRS. AND ABOVE 3.5 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.8 POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCENT) TOTAL 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.7 URBAN 2.5kL 3.3 3.1 4.1 4.6 4.3 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 43.0 40.0 35.0 44.4 42.4 39.4 CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 21.0 17.0 14.0 16.4 . 15.9 11.7 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.2 2.9 2.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 PAMILY PLANNING ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSADS) 64.0 3782.0 4518.0 USERS (PERCENT OF MRIZD WOMEN) .. 12.0 16.9 7.9 12.2 13.2 OOD AND NUTRITION INDEX OF FOOD PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 100.0 102.0 101.0 99.4 98.2 99.6 PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF CALORIES (PERCENT OP REQUIREMENTS) 95.0 92.0 89.0 93.0 93.3 94.7 PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAY) 51.0 53.0 48.0 56.1 52.1 54.3 OP WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE 19.0 16.0 12.6 10.4 13.6 17.4 CHILD (AGES 1-4) MORTALITY RATE 28.0 22.0 18.0 19.2 18.5 11.4 HEALTH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 43.0 48.0 51.0 49.1 49.3 54.7 INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PER THOUSAND) .. 134.0 .. .. 105.4 68.1 ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OP POPULATION) TOTAL .. 17.0 33.0 31.5 26.3 34.4 URBAN .. 60.0 83.0 63.9 58.5 57.9 RURAL .. 6.0 20.0 20.1 15.8 21.2 ACCESS TO EXCEETA DISPOSAL (PERCENT OF POPULATION) TOTAL .. 18.0 20.0 15.7 16.0 40.8 URBAN .. 85.0 87.0 66.8 65.1 71.3 RL'RAL .. 1.0 2.0 2.5 3.5 27.7 POPELATION PER PHYSICIAN 5800.0~j 4890.0 3135.0 7107.9 11396.4 6799.4 POPULATION PER NURSING PERSON 9630.0]L 5220.0 6320.0 12064.0 5552.4 1522.1 POPTLATION PER HOSPITAL BED TOTAL 2590.OLi 2020.0 1231.0 2738.4 1417.1 726.5 UR8AN .. .. .. .. 197.3 272.7 RURAL .. .. .. .. 2445.9 1404.4 ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL BED .. .. .. .. 24.8 27.5 HOUSING AVERAGE SIZE OP HOUSEHOLD TOTAL 5.2 .. 5.2 .. 5.3 5.4 URBAN 5.2 .. 4.8 .. 4.9 5.1 RLRAL 5.2 .. 5.3 .. 5.4 5.5 AVERAGE NUMBER OF PERSONS PER ROOM TOTAL 2.6 2.8 .. -UBAN .. .. .. RURAL .. .. .. ACCESS ro -LECTRICITY (PERCENT OF DWELLINGS) TOTAL .. .. .. .. 22.5 23.1 'JB9AN .. .. .. .. i7.3 45.1 RURAL .. .. .. .. .. 9.9 Page 2 INDIA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET iNDirA ,REFERENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED A EAGES - MOST RECENT ESTIMATE) - SAlfE SAME NEXT HIGHER HOST RECENT GEOCRAPHIC 'INCOME 7NCOtE 1960 lb 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP /e EDUCATION AaJUSTED ENROLLMENT RATIOS PRDIARY: TOTAL 61.0 72.0 79.0 59.5 63.3 82.7 MALE 30.0 87.0 96.0 74.9 79.1 87.3 FEMALZ 40.0 55.0 63.0 43.7 48.4 75.8 SECONDARY: TOTAL 20.0 29.0 28.0 ;9.5 16.7 21.4 MALE 30.0 39.0 38.0 27.8 22.1 33.0 Fl!ALZ 10.0 17.0 18.0 10.0 10.2 15.5 VOCATIONAL ENROL. (: OF SECONDARY) 8.0 6.0/1. .. 1.3 5.6 9.8 PUPIL-TEACEYR RATIO PREIARY 29.0 40.0 42.0 42.2 41.0 34.1 SECONDARY 16.0 17.0 .. 21.7 23.4 ADULT LITERACY RATE (PERCENT) 28.0 33.0 36.0 23.5 31.2 54.0 CONSUMPTION PASSENCER CARS PER TEOUSAND POPULATION 0.7 1.0 1.2 2.3 2.8 9.3 2ADIO RECEIVERS PMR TEOCSAND POPULATION 5.0 21.0 24.0 15.5 27.2 76.9 rV RECEIVERS PER THOUSAND POPULATION .. 0.1 0.3 .. 2.4 13.5 NEWSPAPER ("DAILY GENERAL YNTEREST") CRCULATION PER HOUSAsND ?OPULATION 11.0 16.0 16.0 6.2 5.3 18.3 CINEXA ANNUAL ATTENDANCE PER CAPITA 4.0 6.3 3.8 .. 1.1 2.5 LABOR FORCE ,OTAL LASOR FORCE (.'OUSANDS) 188670.0 226870.0 261000.0/k FENA1.E (PERCENT) 31.3 32.6 32.2 21.4 24.8 29.2 AGRlCJL'L:t'RE (PERCENT) 73.0 73.0 73.0 66.3 69.4 62.7 INDUSTRY (PERCENT) 11.0 11.0 11.0 9.6 iO.0 11.9 PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT) 0TTAL 43.0 40.2 39.2 35.8 36.9 37.1 MALE 57.1 52.3 51.3 52.3 52.4 48.8 PEMALI 27.9 27.1 26.2 15.7 18.3 20.4 _COSOMIC DEPENDENCY RATiO 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4 'NCOME DISTRIBUTION PERCENT OF PRIVATE INCCKE RECEIVED 3Y HIGHEST 5 ?ERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 25.7 26.3/1 .. .. .. 15.2 5IGHEST 20 PERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 51.7 48.97 .. .. .. 48.2 LOWEST 20 ?ERCENT OF HOUSEHOLDS 4.1 6.7/1 .. .. .. 6.3 LOWEST .0 PERCEYT OF HiOUSEHOLDS 13.6 17.2/1 .. .. .. 16.3 POVERTY rARGET CROUPS STI!IATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOME LEVEL (US5 ?PR CAPITA) '.3AN .. .. 83.0 86.5 99.' 241.3 2'JRAL .. .. 73.0 74.2 78.9 136.6 IST:MATE REULATIVE POVERTY INcoME LEVEL (USS ?ER CAPI'TA) ?RAN .. .. .. .. 91.9 179., LURAL .. .. 50.0 50. 54.3 103.7 -S .IMTED ?'3FULATTON 3LO;W ABSOLZME POVERTY :NCOME LEVEL l?'RCENT) .LMAN .. .. 47.0 -4.3 24. 1 24.8 1URAL .. .. 52.0 52.. 53.9 37.5 , 'ot avaiLable .:oc applicable. NOTE-S a Voe ad'naced group averages for each indicator are ?opuiarion-eignted geometric means, excludial che ext.ezt vales of :he :rdicator and t.ie nost ponulacec zounc!r in eacn group. Coverage of :ouncr:es imang :he indicltors lecends on xvailabil-:v of iaca ana is noc uniform. -:ess )cner-.-ise aced, aaca for 960 refer :o pyv vear oetween :959 and 196., for '1970, oec-een 1969 Lnd 971'; and for Mfost Recent I-3 taae, between 1974 and L977. c 3outh Asia; d ow 'ncome '5'20 or Less per capita 19767; e 'ower 1-Cdle Income ';281-550 ?er _ami:a, ?7S'; f.97S mid-'ear Ooquiation s3 escisaced a: .0C.- oilion; L ,951 J; h ;96'; i 95;; _ 967; ,k '978 nmi-ear Labor force s asc.oared ac 'S: ni-lon; 96 -,' Mosc lecent sc_ oe of GNP oer cazita Ls for :978. AUgUStC. '979 DEErIOnI OF SOCIAL INDICATORS Page 3 Notes: Although the data are drawn from sources generally Judged the mat authoritative and reliable, it should also be noted that they may not be interna- tionally comparable because of the lack of standardized definitions ad concepts used by different countries in collecting the data. The data are, nonetheless, useful to describe orders or nagnitude, indicste trends, and characterice certain maJor differences between countries. The adjusted group averages for each indicator are population-weighted geometric means, eocluding the extreme values of the indicator and the most populated sountry in each group. eDu to lask of data, group averages of all indicators for Capital Surplus Oil Exporters and of indicators of Access to Water and Eucreta Disposal, Housing, Inc.=e Distribution and Poverty for other country group4 are population-weighted geometric means vithout exclusion of the estreme values and the most populated country. Since the cuvere of Iouotries among the indicators depends on availabilIty of dat ad is ast uniform, caution must be enercined in relating averages of one indicator to another. These averages re ms0tly useful as pproslmatlons of exected. ealues when com.paring the value of one indicator at a time among the country and reference groups. LAND ARRA (thousand aq.k.) Access to Escreta DIsposal (percent of population) - total, urban, mad -ral - Total - Total surface area comprising land area and inland waters. Number of people (total, urban, and rural) served by exsreta dIsposal s Agricultural - Most recent estimate of agricultural area used temporarily percentages of their respective populations. Ecxreta disposal nay include or permtaneniy for crops, pastures, nrrket and kitchen gardens or to the collectios and disposal, with or without treatment, of human ecreets lie fsllow. and sante-water by wator-b-rne systems or the use of pit privies and -.ilar GNP PRR CAPITA (us$) - S3P per capita estimates at current market prices, Posatin per Pytciin - Population divided by number of practicing phyricians calculated by same conversion method as World Eank Atlas (1976-78 basis) 1960,970 ,-d 1978 data. Population Der Nursing Person - Population divided by number of practicing ealo ENRGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA - Asnual consumption of .sxaercial energy and female graduate nurses, practical nurses, and ansistant nurses. (coal and lignite, petroleum, natural gas and hydro-, auclear and geo- Popultion per Hospital Bed - total, urban, and rural - Populatico (total, urban, thermal electricity) is kilogramo sf coal equivalent per capita; 1960, nd rural) divided by their rexpective somber of hospitnl beds available in 1970, and 1976 dta.s public and private general and spescialied hosptital and rehtbilitstios centers. Hospitals are establisheests permanently stuffed by at least one physician. POPULATION AND VITAL STATISTICS Establis.lhents providing principally custodial care I rc sot included. Rural Totl Popao 0 d-Yer (millions) - As of July 1; 1960, 1970, and hospitals, however, include healti and medioni centers not pernently staffed 1977 data. by a physician (but by a medical assistant, nurse, ridvife, etc.) Which off-r Urban Population (percent of total) - Ratio of urban to total population; in-patient acconnuodati-s and provide a limited range of medical facilities. different definitions of urban areas may affect comparability of data AdssisLcns per Hospital Bed - Total number of admiosi... to or disabarges fro amoTng countses; 1960, 1970, and 1975 datb. hospitals divided by the number of beds. Populat io Projections Population in year 20i0 - Current populstion pro.estiosa are based os HOUSING 1975 total population by age and sex and their mortality and fertility Average Sice of Household (persona per hbusehcld) - total, urban, and rura1 - rates. Projection parameters for nortadity rates comprise of three A household consists of a group of individuals who share living quarters and levels assuming life vopecteacy et birth iscreasing with country's their main meals. A boarder or lodger may or may not be included in the per capits income olenl and femle life expectancy stabilining at household for statistical purposes. 77.5 years. The parameter for fertility rate also have three levels Average number of persons per room - total, urban, and rural - Average nunber _asuming decline in fertitity according to income level and past of persons per room is all urban, and rural coupied convestionsl dwellingo, falily planning performance. Each country is then assigned one of these respectively, D-cllings exclude non-permanent structures and unoccupied paric. nine coIhbinatios of mortality and fertility trends for prcjection Access to Electricity (percent of dwellings) - total, urban, and rural - Con- purpones. vn-tionsl dwvllings uth electricity in living quarters as per-entage of Itstiossry population - In a otatiou_ry population there is no growth total, urban, and rural d-ellingo respectively. since the birth rate is equal tc the death rate, and abls the age structure remains conctant. This is achieved cory after fertility rates EDUCATION decline to the replasenent level of unit net reproduction rate, when AdJusted Enrollnt Ratios each generation of sonen replaces itself exactly. The stationary popu- Primary school - total, male and female - Crons total, male and fenale earoli- istios aice ean ectimated on the basic of the projected characteristics mnt of all ages at the primary level as percentages of re-prctivv primary of the population in the year 1000, and the rate of decline of fertility school-ago populationa; normally includes children aged (-ii years bt rate to replacement level. adjuated for different lengthb of primary education; for countries sith Year stationary poclats is reached - The year when utatiosary population univer-ai education enrollment may exceed 100 percent since sour pupils sice h-a teen reached. are belos ue sbove the official school age. Population Density Secondary school - total, male and female - Computed as nice; secondary Per sq. km. - Mid-year popuiation per square kilometer (100 hectares) of edusation require. ast lea-t four years of approved primary in-truction; total area provides general vocationel or teacher training istrscoiuso for pupols Per sq. isa. agricultural land - Computed as above for agricultura1 1idn usually of 12 to 17 years of age; correspondence Icurses nrc generally only. excluded. Population Age Itructure (perenrt) - Children (0-14 years), working-age Vocational esroliment (percent of -rcondary) - VocationlI institution i-ciude )i_-tt years), and retired (65 years and over) as peronstages of mid-year teehaical, industrial, or other progrsms shich operate independently or ax powplation; 1960, 1970, and 1977 data. depertmnsto of oecondary in-titutions. Population Grovth Rate (percent) - total - Annual growth rates of totel mid- Pupil-teacher ratio - primary, and secondary - Total students e-rollod in year populations for 1950-h, 1960-70, and 1970-77. primary and secondary levels divided by numbers of teachers s thr corr- Population irowth Rate (percent) - urban - Asnual gro-th rates of urban sponding leorlo. populations for 1950-60, 1960-70, and 1970-75. Adult loterncy rate (percent) - Literate adults (ble tQ road and vrite) no Crude ,irth Rate per thousand) - AnnulI live births per thousand of mid- a percentage of total adult popuietion aged 15 years and over. year population; 1960, 1970, and 1977 date. Crude Death Rate (per thousand) - Anauia deaths per thousand of mid-year CONSUMPTION population; 1960, 1970, and 1977 data. Passenger Curs (per thousand population) - Passenger oars comprise motor cars Grons Reproductioc Rate - Average number of daught-rr a woxan vill b-r aenting less than eight per-son; excludes antolunncs, hearses and nilitory in her normal reproductivv period if she e-peri-nce present age- vehiclea. specific fertility rstes; usually five-year uverug-o ending in 1960, Radio Receivers (per thousand Population) - All types of receivers fur radio 1970, and 1975. broadcasts to general public per thousand of population; excludes unlicensed Faily Planning - Acceptors- Annual (thousands) - Annual number of receivero in countries and in years when regiotratios of radio sets ass in acceptors of hirth-control de-i-ea under auspices of national fnmily effect; data for recent years emy not be Ioopsrshle since saot countries plameing program. abolished li-ensing. Foaily planning - Users (percent of married scueti - Peroestagr oEf Mrrird TV Res-ivers (p-r thousand copulation) - TV receivera for broadcast t, genero -o.en of child-bearing age (15-44 years) who one birth-.ontrul devicea public per thousand population; excludes unlicensed TVreceivero in countries to all married women in same age group. and in years vhot registration of TV sets aws in effect. P000 AND ND'IPITIIR Reos~~~~~~~~~~Njpaper circulation (Per thousand po eltios) - Shows the -vergvcir-latic.. of"daily genera interes senspar, defined as periodical publication Index of Food Production per Capita (1969-71=100) - Index of per capita devoted primarily to revordig general sews. It is cosidered to he b "dily" annual production of all food commodities. Production excludes seed d if it ppears t least four times a seek. feed and is on eslendar year basis. Commodities cover primary goods Ciema Annual AttendaceiperCaita per Y - B.sd on the, xer of tiaksto (e.g. nugarcane tintead of sugar) which are edible and ccntain nutrientn soId during the year, iscluding disi. to dr-s-io cisemas snd mobile (e.g. coffee and tea are r exluded). Aggregate production of each country t a is based on national average producer price weights. Pee caPita supply of calories ()ercrnt of requirents) - CPmpsted from LABOR FORCE energy equivalent of net food supplies availablo in country per capita Tota1 Labor Forse (thiosands) - Economically active persons, micluding ared per day. Available supplies comprise domestic production, imports less forcea and unemployed but excluding housevives, students, etc. Definitoosit exports, and changes in stoik. Pet supplies uexlode animal feed, seeds, in various countries ere not comparable. quantities used in food process- g, and losses in diotribution. Pequire Femle (Percent) - Female labor forc- as peo..natge of totai isb-r force. meats were estimated by,FAO btsed on physiologlcal oredo for normal Agriculture (c eot) - Labor force in farmiag, foreatry, hunting and activity and health considering escironoental temperatu- r, body weights, fishing as percentage of total labor force. age and se- dittribhtions of populaticn, and allowing 10 percent for Industry (percent) - Lab,r force in mining, conatructios, suoufacturing and waate at household level. electricity, eater and gas as percentage of total labor force. Per capita supply of protein grams per day) - Protein content uf per Parttiipsti-n Rate (percent) - total, male, and female - Participatios or capita net supply of fiod per day. Net supply of food is defined as activity rmtes are computed as total, male and female labor force as per- above. Requirements for all countries established by USDA provide for a centages of total, male and female population of all ages respectively; misiman a losanee of 60 grabs of total protein per day and 20 grams of 1960, 197, and 1975 data. These are ILO s partjcipat-on rates reflecting animal and pulse protein, of which 10 grams should be animal protein. age-sex structure of the population, and long time trend. A few estimates Thnse standards are lower than those of 75 grams of total prstein and are from national Iources. 23 grams of animal protein as an average for the vorld, proposed by FAO EOcoam1i Dependency Ratio - Ratio of Population under 15 and 65 and over to in the Third World Food Survey. the labor force in age group of 15-64 years. Per Capita proteIn supply from animal and pulse - Protein supPly of food derived from animals and pulsen in grams per day. INCOME DISTRIBUTIOI Child (ages 1-4) Mortality Rate (per thousand) - Annual deaths per thousand Percentage of Private Income (both in cash and hind) - Received by richest in age group 1-4 years, to children in thin age group; for most devel, 5 percent, richest SO percent, poorest DO persent, and poorest 40 percent oping countries data derived from life tables, of households. hEALTH POVERTY TARGET GROUPS Life Expectancy at Birt (years) - Average number of years of life Estimated Absolute Poverty Iso2me Level (US! Per capita) - urban and rural - remaIning at birth; 1960, 1970, and 1977. data. Absolute poverty isosme level ha that Income level below which a misimal Infant llrtality Rate (per thousand) - Annual deaths of infants under ose nutritionally dequate diet plus essential son-food requirements is not year of age per thousand live births. affordable. Access to Safe Water (percent of population) - total, urban, and rural - itimated Relative Poverty Income lord (vs$ per capita) - urban mad rural - Rooter of people (total, urbaP, and rural) sith reasonable access to Rurl relative poverty income level ia one-third of average per capita safe sater supply (includes treated surface waters or untreated but personal income of the country. Urban level is derived from the rural level uncontaminated cator such as that fr-m protected borehsles, springs, sith adjustment for higher cost of living in urban areaa. and sanitary vells) as percentages of their respective populations. In Estimated Pcpulation Belos Abisolute Poverty Iacoe Level (Percent) - urban and an urban area a public fountain or standpost located not more than rural - Percent of ppuliti (a1 vh re "3b301u 200 meters from a house may be considered as being sithin reasonahle - an and rura Poor access of that house. In rural areas reasonable acswas would imply that the houaewife or members of the household do act have to spend a FEconmic and Social Data Divisios dispropsrtionste part of the day in fetching the family's water needs Economic Analysis and Projections Department August 1979 Pae 4 ECONaMIC DE7ELOPtENT DATA a/ GNP PER CAPITA IN 1978: US$ 180 bl C/ GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1978/79 ANNUAL PATE OF GROWTN (%, constant prices) US$ Bln. % 1955/56-1959/60 1960/61-1964/65 1965/66-1969/70 1970/71-1974/75 1975/76-1977/78 GNP at Market Prices 117.08 100.0 3.7 3.6 3.7 2.8 5.6 Gross Domestic Investment 28.28 24.2 Gross National Saving 28.11 24.0 Current Account Balance _/ 0.50 0.4 OUTPUT. IABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY IN 1971 Value Added (at factor cost) Labor Force V.A. Per Worker US$ Bln. % lil. % USS % of National Average Agcicultore 24.5 46.6 130.0 72.1 188 64 Industry 11.8 22.3 20.2 11.2 582 199 Services 16.3 31.1 30.2 16.7 542 186 Total/average 52.6 100.0 180.4 100.0 292 100 GOVERNHENT FINANCE !/ General Government Central Government Re B1lnfGO Rs Bln. 7 of GDP 197'8/9' E1978/79 1974 75-1971879 1978/79 Current Rece-pte 183.65 19.1 18.3 107.71 11.2 10.6 Current Expenditures 177.26 18.4 16.7 108.99 11.3 10.1 Current Surplus/Deficit 6.41 0.7 1.6 - 1.28 -0.1 0.5 Ctpital REpendituros _/ 78.41 8.1 7.2 57.34 6.0 5.1 Esternal Assistance (net) d/ 8.15 0.8 1.4 8.15 0.8 1.4 MlONEY. CREDIT AND PRICES 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 September 1978 September 1979 (Rs Billioe outstanding at end of period) Money and Quasi Money 121.4 198.4 220.3 254.7 308.9 370.4 445.6 398.5 473.7 dank Credit to Government (net) 52.6 87.3 95.3 101.1 110.2 134.7 153.9 139.5 161.7 Bank Credit to Conmercial Sector 64.6 107.0 126.7 153.9 185.1 212.2 253.3 225.8 273.8 (Percentage or lodex Numbers) January 1979 January 1980 Money end Quasi Money as % of GDP 30.1 33.5 31.5 34.5 38.8 41.5 46.3 Wholesale Price Index (1970/71 - 100) 100.0 139.7 174.9 173.0 176.6 185.8 185.8 185.3 224.0 Annual percentage changes in: Wh.leaale Price Index 7.7 20.2 25.2 -1.1 2.1 5.2 - 0.4 20.9 Bank Credit to Governrent (net) 10.8 12.3 9.2 6.1 9.0 22.2 14.3 16.9 15.9 Bank Credit to Comnercial Sector 19.4 22.6 18.4 21.5 20.3 14.6 19.4 15.6 21.3 a/ The per capita GNP estimate is at market prices, calculated by the conversion technique used in the World Bank Atlas, 1979. All other cenversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered. b/ Quick Estimates. c/ Conpsted froe trend lien of GNP at factor coat series, including one observation before first year and one observatior after last year of listed period. _/ World Bank estimates; not necessarily consistent with official figures. S/ Transfers between Centre end States have been netted out. f/ All lease and advance. to third parties have bees netted out. Pane 5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 - 1979/80 h MERCEANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1975/76 - 1978/79) US$ mEn. 7, Exports of Goods 5,753 6,315 6,976 7,800 Engineering Goods 671 11 Imports of Goods -5,928 -7,188 -8,488 -1i,l00 Tea 420 7 Trade Balance - 175 - 873 -1,512 -3,20o Gems 499 8 NFS (net) 379 692 882 1,050 Clothing 378 6 Leather and Leather Resource Balance 204 - 181 - 630 -2,150 Produc_s 319 5 Jute Manufactures 251 4 Interact Paynents (net) i/ -182 - 89 130 400 Iron Ore 270 5 Other Factor Paymenta (oet) - - - - Cotton Textiles 248 4 Net Transfers j/ 695 1,077 1,00 1,000 nSgor 224 4 B.1a. C-e.t Ac.n 17 07 750 Others 2,649 45 Balance on Correct Accoont 717 807 500 -750Toa5.2 10 Total 5.929 100 Official Aid Disbursenents 1,955 1,628 1,695 1,870 EXTERNAL DEBT. MARCd 31. 1979 Arortization -560 -645 -702 - 687 S$ billion Transactions with IMPF 337 _330 -158 - Cutsttading and Disbursed 15.5 All Other Items -200 616 199 -183 Undisbursed 5.2 Outstanding, including 20.7 Increase in Reserves (-) -1,575 -2,076 -1,534 - 250 Undisbursed Gross Reserves (end year) 3,747 5,823 7,357 7,607 h/l/ Net Reserves (end year) h/ 3,276 5,668 7,357 7,607 DEBT SERVICE RAT1O FOR 1978/79 15.0 percent Fuel and Related Materials IBRD/IDA LENDING. DECEM3EER 31, 1979 Imports 1,581 1,811 2,043 4,055 US5 million of which: Petrnleum 1,581 1,811 2,043 4,053 1BRD IDA Exports 37 32 24 - Oustantding and Dishurned 689 4,286 of which; Petroleum 21 18 n.a. - Undisbursed 614 2,621 Outstanding, including 1,303 6,907 Undishbrsed RATE OF EXCHANGE June 1966 tn mid-Decenber 1971 US$1.00 - R. 7.5 R. 1.00 = US$0.133333 Mid-December 1971 to end-June 1972 : US$1.00 - Rs 7.27927 Rs 1.00 - US$0.137376 After end-June 1972 Floating Rate Spot RBte end-Dacember 1978 : US$1.00 - Rs 8.188 Rs 1.00 = U801.122 End-Decenher 1979 : US$1.00 - RE 7.907 Rs 1.00 - US$0.126 h/ Estimated. hi Figures given cover all invecstent incone (net). Major payments are interest on foreign loans and chorges paid to IMF, and major receipt is interest earned on foreign assets. J/ Figures given include workern remittances but enclude official grant assistance, which is - included within official aid disbursenents. k/ Excludes net use of IMF credit. T/ Amortization and interest payments on foreign loans as a percentage of nerchandise exports. IBRD i0483R4 MARCHA 1979 DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN '* * I N D I A ' JAStMIP -d KASHMIR Srnagar , Stale and Union Territory Capilals * Not onal Captaol C Other Cities y.>Sv H/MA (ANAL 1> r Stote and Union Territory Bo-ndr-es Sml - International Boundories PAKISTAN 90 ~~f PL,,JAR t o _, XAPJ'A,VAR 6 "-'- -. CHINA Wch DELHI ..' /~~~ (tEWOELHI '-. Jtanaaur eRTADESI/ T JTAR I NEPAL c 'H ,--- c ( ngnIo/ BH-UTAN / PTv9R A D L S/i Ai~r' 61-62 62.63 63-64 64-65 65.66 66.67 67.68 68.69 69.70 70.71 71-72 72.73 73.74 74.75 75.76 76.77 77.78 78.7979.80 r yeaQrs - 18 - Table A.1.1 PRICES, MONEY, OUTPUT (Average Annual Rates of Growth) Prices Money Real Output 1963/64 to 1967/68 11.6 9.1 2.9 1967/68 to 1971/72 3.4 11.5 4.6 1971/72 to 1974/75 18.3 14.3 0.9 1974/75 to 1978/79 1.5 14.3 5.6 Source: Reserve Bank of India Bulletins. The two inflationary periods in India have coincided with the stagnation of real output and the two periods of price stability have coincided with relatively fast output growth. These observations are confirmed by the comparison of the correlation coefficients between prices and money on the one hand and prices and output (negative) on the other. 1/ It is thus more than a coincidence that prices have again started to rise in a year of negative output growth. The conclusion is inescapable that the price developments in India are highly sensitive to the supply conditions, more so than to the fluctuations in the money stock in the short run. A.1.4 The longer-term trend of prices hides not only the seasonal price fluctuations which would be expected in an agriculture dominated economy, but also the cyclical variations of agricultural prices affected by the harvests and the regulation of the agricultural commodity supplies by the Government. Graph A.1.2 shows the monthly trend of the wholesale price index together with its two components, namely the agriculture based commodity prices (to be referred to as agricultural prices) and the prices of the non-agriculture based commodities (to be referred to as industrial prices). As can be seen, the seasonal as well as the cyclical variations of the general price level are dominated by the agricultural prices which constitute slightly more than half of the total weight in the general index. The industrial prices have essentially affected only the secular trend of the price changes (and not the year to year variations) except on two occasions when they induced steep increases in the general price level -- in 1973/74 and more recently after March 1979. 1/ The partial correlation coefficient between lnP and lnY, eliminating the influence of the time variable, was -0.52, while the partial correlation coefficient between lnP and lnM was only 0.14. The significance of these correlations was tested after applying Bartlet's formula for correcting for autocorrelation in the error series. The former was found to be significant at the 5% level, while the latter was not. - 19 - GRAPH A,l.? TREND OF WHOLESALE PRICES (monthly) (1970/71 - 100) ALL COMMODITIES (100.0 *I.) --- AGRICULTURE-BASED COMMODITIES ( 53 7'/C) 250- PRIMARY FOOD AND NON-FOOD ARTICLES,MANUFACTURED FOOD PRODUCTS NON-AGRICULTURE-BASED COMMODITIES ( 46 3f,) MINERALS, FUELS,POWER,MANUFACTURES OTHER THAN FOOD PRODUCTS / 200- 1 50 - M J S D M J S D M J 5 M SD M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M 72-73 1 73- 74 1 74 -7 75 5-76 1 - 7-77 77-78 1 78 -79 1 79 -80 rnonth I year - 20 - A.1.5 The seasonal pattern of agricultural prices appears quite regular with the seasonal peak reached around September and the trough around March each year. Failure of the monsoons and poor harvests reinforce the seasonal upward movement of prices in summer and dampen the seasonal fall in autumn and winter (Graph A.1.3). Good harvests have the opposite effect -- dampening the upward swing in summer and strengthening the downward swing in winter. The years 1972/73, 1973/74 and 1974/75 were years of relative scarcity in agriculture. Thus we see sharp spurts of prices in springs and summers which are not reversed in autumns or winters except in 1974/75 when the supply situation eased thanks to large imports of foodgrains leading to a decline in agricultural prices. A bumper crop following the excellent rains in 1975 led to further declines of agricultural prices to a level which in March 1976 was 15% below the level in March 1975. The seasonal recovery of agricultural prices after March 1976 was equally drastic reinforced by relatively modest crop expectations 9o that by September 1976, agricultural prices had returned to previous year's level but were still below the peak reached in September 1974. Excellent monsoons of 1977 and 1978 again dampened the seasonal upswings and amplified the seasonal downswings and as a result in March 1979 agricultural prices stood at a level below the prices which had prevailed in the spring of 1975, 1977 and 1978. The upswing since March 1979 has once more been amplified by the very serious drought that the country experienced during the summer of 1979. A.1.6 The industrial prices did not have an impact on the year to year variations in the general price level except, as indicated above, on two occasions in the last two decades: in 1974 and in the period since March of 1979. In 1974, industrial prices were almost 38% higher than in 1973. And since March 1979 these prices have increased by about 20%. Looking at the trend of industrial prices in India, it is clear that the major upward jumps are associated with the hikes in oil prices, and the prices of metals and capital goods which reflect or are sensitive to world inflation. The price adjustments have been quite sharp in India because both the 1973/74 and the 1979 increases in oil prices coincided with poor harvests. In spite of this, however, agricultural prices have lagged behind and in 1979/80 were about 10% below the industrial prices compared to not only 1970/71 but even 1974/75. A.1.7 When examined in this disaggregated way, it becomes clear that stable wholesale price index after the autumn of 1974 did not mean across- the-board stability in most prices but was the average of two divergent trends, namely industrial prices rising at 3.2% per annum and agricultural prices falling at even a faster rate. This continued until March 1976 after which the trend of agricultural prices turned upwards. As a result, although the rise in industrial prices decelerated somewhat, the total price index registered a rise of 12.5% during 1976/77. However, the average price level for 1976/77 was no higher than the previous year. Autumn of 1977 again witnessed the downturn of the agricultural price cycle and, thanks to this downward trend, overall price stability was preserved even though starting with December 1977 the increase in industrial prices had become steeper. Since March of 1979 we are again in the upswing of agricultural prices while the rise in industrial prices has also gained momentum. It is clear that - 21 - GRAPH A.1.3 ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL PRICE MOVEMENT (WEIGMT IN TOTAL WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX 53.7 %) j ~~~~~~1970/71zl: j s d r j s d m jsd m sd jsdr jsd rn js rn sd 190- seasonally adjusted price trend (moving averages over four quarters 180- 170 - 160 - INDEX OF SEASONAL VARIATIONS S 150 - /- d- 100 140 - 130 - 120 - 110 - 100 - ~~INDEX OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 7 2-73 173..74 74 -75 175-76 76-7 7 77-78 78 -79 79-80 - 22 - GRAPH A.1.4 TREND OF AGRICULTURAL PRICES based on figures for the last month of each quarter (1970-71 - 100) J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S DM J S D M J S D M 250- - I 111111111 ALL AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND FOOD PRODUCTS ( 53 9. )* OIL SEEDS ONIONS POTATOES RAW COTTON GROUNDNUT OIL MUSTARD OIL AND GUR ( 14-5 '. )* OTHER AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES & FOOD PRODUCTS ( 39i2 °/ )* 200- 15 0 - r i INDEX OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION TRIENNIUM ENDING 1969/70 100 72-73 73-74 1 74-75 1 75-76 1 76-77 1 77-78 78-79 1 79-80 *Percentage share of weights In wholesale price index. - 23 - GRAPH A.1.5 TREND OF INDUSTRIAL PRICES 300 - (1970/71 = I00) INDUSTRtAL PRICES ( 46.3 °/o )* POL,METALS AND PRODUCTS, MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT ( 18.2o)* _ .,..... OTHER INDUSTRIAL PRICES (281°oIo)* WORLD INFLATION INDEX 250- M J S D M J S D M J S D M J 5 D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M 1 72-73 1 73-74 1 74-75 1 75-76 1 76-77 1 77-78 1 78-79 1 79-80 *Percentage share of weights in wholesale price index. - 24 - the short-term price developments have been dominated by the cycle of agri- cultural prices and the total price level has appeared stable or not depending on where the economy happened to be on the agricultural cycle. A.1.8 Looking at the long-term trends, the interaction of the supply and demand factors on the prices is rather clear. The major inflation of 1973/74 was the result of sharp increases in agricultural prices due to poor harvests and sharp increases in industrial prices fuelled by the world inflation and the energy crisis. Rapid monetary expansion from 1972/73 to 1973/74 must have provided accommodation for the price increase. Similarly the monetary and fiscal restrictions in the late 1974 must have exerted some dampening effect on the rate of inflation. But the importance of these monetary effects, both the expansion and the contraction, on the price changes should not be exagger- ated. Quite strong real factors were at work both in the upward and in the stabilization phases of the 1973/74 episode and it is obvious that India would have experienced a severe price rise in 1973/74 even if the increase in the money supply had been kept at a considerably lower rate. On the other hand, with significant food imports, followed by very good monsoons in 1975 and some levelling of the world inflation, the inflation rate was bound to weaken even if the monetary and fiscal squeeze had been applied less severely. Indeed it is relevant to ask whether the dosage of the monetary and fiscal restrictive policies were not excessive which may have contributed to the recession that ensued after the good harvests of 1975. A.l.9 Similarly, real factors were at work during the recent inflationary episode. Commodity prices in the world markets rose sharply during the last quarter of 1978 and the first three quarters of 1979. Over this period (from July-September 1978 to July-September 1979) metals and minerals prices in the world markets increased by 24%, fats and oils by 14% and agricultural non-food prices by 12%. Of course the largest increase with the greatest impact on the Indian economy was the increase in petroleum prices. Thus imported inflation was a major factor in pushing up the costs and prices in the economy. A.l.10 Another set of factors related to the non-cereal food items, espe- cially sugar and edible oils. Large production and stocks had caused the prices of these commodities to fall almost continuously during 1977/78 and 1978/79 so that the total index of agriculture based commodities in March 1979 stood not only 11% below the index for March 1977, but even below the level of March 1975. As a consequence of these low prices and increased incomes in agriculture and industry, the consumption of both commodities had increased sharply. With a fall in the production of sugar and edible oil during 1978/79, it was natural that the low prices and high consumption levels could not be maintained for any length of time. However, the price jump would not have been as sharp had the sugar industry not been allowed to manipulate the market releases in the manner they did after February 1979. A.1.11 The expansionary monetary policies during 1977-79 must have provided the accommodation for upward price adjustments as in 1972-74. With such strong cost push forces putting pressure on industrial prices and less than adequate supplies of some food items to satisfy the increased demand at low prices, a more restrictive monetary policy could have moderated the rate of - 25 - inflation only if this policy was complemented with exchange rate measures to compensate for the world inflation and efforts to provide adequate supply of food items. Even if these objectives could be achieved for a while, large distortions would be introduced into the economy by trying to isolate the domestic economy and within the domestic economy the agricultural sector from the changing patterns of world terms of trade. Although the foreign trade constitutes a small sector of the Indian economy and although agriculture is not yet very dependent on industrial outputs, the linkages are sufficiently important to warrant timely rather than delayed adjustments in the structure of the economy. - 26 - Chapter 2 AGRICULTURAL PRICES AND OUTPUT A. Prices and Production of Foodgrains 2.1 In spite of a severe drought-induced shortfall in production of foodgrains in 1979/80 India will probably end the rabi season with grain stocks of about 15 million tons without any import of foodgrains. This is partly due to the bumper crop in 1978/79. Nevertheless, this outcome viewed in the context of the trends of the last decade suggests an emerging improve- ment in the foodgrain balance of the economy. In this chapter we shall analyze the trend of this balance and discuss its implications for incentive policies, especially pricing. 2.2 Cereals dominate crop production in India, providing 55% of the gross value of crop output and occupying 63% of the total crop area and 75% of total irrigated area. Foodgrains (cereals plus pulses) occupy 77% of total crop area, 79% of total irrigated area and provide 61% of the gross value of crop output. The importance of foodgrains extends further since slight shifts in foodgrain production and prices can have a major impact on other crops which compete for farmers' land and other scarce resources. 2.3 Table 2.1 shows the average yearly wholesale price indices of the five most important cereal crops over the past 20 years and the index of all commodity prices. The prices of the various cereals have moved together in most years. Prices of foodgrains and other commodities have also tended to move together with fluctuations in the expected directions depending on good and bad crop years. Over the last few years there appears to be a fall in the price of cereals relative to other prices. Nevertheless, the cereal prices, together with the direct and indirect subsidies going to agriculture have evidently been sufficient to promote the use of inputs and the exploi- tation of the new technologies. 2.4 The three relatively minor cereals--sorghum (jowar), millet (bajra), and maize--show somewhat greater volatility than the two main cereals, rice and wheat. Particularly in years of relative scarcity, prices of the minor cereals rise much more rapidly than prices of rice and wheat. In part this may reflect the greater dependence of these crops on the monsoon. Whereas 38.3% of the rice area and 65.0% of the wheat area are irrigated, the figures for sorghum, millets and maize are 4.5%, 5.4%, and 17.7% respectively. In drought years, production of these crops falls sharply, but a compensating price effect appears to reduce the impact on farmers' income. Interestingly, when production increases and the supply position improves, the market for these minor cereals does not appear to collapse. While prices do fall from the peaks, the indices do not generally fall below the levels of the wheat and rice price indices. This suggests that the rice and wheat procurement prices provide fairly effective downside protection to prices of other cereals through the various foodgrain markets. - 27 - Table 2.1 WHOLESALE PRICE INDICES: ALL COMMODITIES AND FOODGRAINS, 1958-1977 (Base: 1970/71 = 100) Calen- All dar Commo- Food- Year dities grains Cereals Rice Wheat Jowar Bajra Barley Maize Ragi 1958 49.0 49.5 51.3 50.9 50.7 47.3 57.5 62.1 55.6 51.6 1959 51.0 49.9 51.1 48.2 53.9 54.3 60.8 62.5 59.0 55.6 1960 54.2 49.6 51.6 51.6 48.0 57.8 61.6 58.0 50.8 60.1 1961 55.5 48.0 49.8 49.4 47.0 51.8 63.4 56.3 53.1 60.3 1962 /a 57.5 51.5 52.1 52.7 47.4 62.7 61.0 52.1 50.0 55.7 1963 59.6 53.3 54.0 57.3 47.8 52.7 58.0 53.4 48.8 56.1 1964 65.8 66.5 64.9 62.4 61.6 80.0 77.1 91.7 72.0 74.1 1965 71.2 73.9 71.5 64.5 72.3 88.9 96.4 108.8 89.0 109.9 1966 79.7 82.7 81.9 79.7 77.5 87.3 100.6 116.5 97.9 105.0 1967 91.7 108.8 102.9 97.9 102.8 103.8 119.3 157.2 144.4 99.6 1968 91.3 100.7 99.6 99.4 98.1 97.3 111.8 108.9 103.9 107.5 1969 93.2 98.1 99.0 96.3 100.2 99.9 120.1 108.6 104.0 110.9 1970 99.0 101.4 101.3 100.0 102,8 99.3 106.5 109.9 105.7 102.1 1971 /a 105.0 102.1 100.9 103.3 97.8 108.6 92.6 92.2 96.2 105.6 1972 113.0 114.6 111.4 112.1 103.3 121.4 128.0 120.2 120.7 113.6 1973 131.6 135.0 128.8 131.6 108.0 143.8 165.2 176.1 154.3 135.8 1974 169.2 183.6 178.1 174.7 163.9 189.0 208.9 232.7 234.9 191.7 1975 175.8 187.0 185.7 188.2 169.4 192.7 238.0 182.2 201.0 202.9 1976 172.4 150.3 151.6 154.9 150.6 162.1 139.2 116.7 135.9 149.8 1977 185.4 167.2 161.2 163.5 155.8 156.2 165.4 164.3 174.7 170.2 1978 185.o 173.3 158.1 159.0 154.8 157.3 155.7 170.4 177.6 154.9 /a Figures relate to average of nine months (April-December). Sources: H.L. Chandhok, "Wholesale Price Statistics India 1947-1978" Economic and Scientific Research Foundation, October 1978. "Revised Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices in India", Monthly Bulletins, Office of Economic Advisor, Ministry of Industry. 2.5 Monthly price indices also reveal strong seasonal cycles, particu- larly for rice and wheat. The rice price tends to peak regularly around July-September and reaches seasonal lows with the kharif paddy harvest around November-January. The wheat cycle runs out of phase with the rice cycle; the wheat price usually reaches a peak around January-March and a seasonal low around May-July when most wheat reaches the market. The amplitudes of the seasonal fluctuations for rice and wheat are quite small in periods of relative price stability (1960-64, 1968-72 and 1976-79). The gap between the highest and the lowest monthly prices is on the order of 8%-12%. Given the costs of storage, interest and return to traders, it appears there is an insufficient - 28 - seasonal variation in rice and wheat prices to make trade profitable. 1/ This reflects, no doubt, the major public sector intervention in wheat and rice procurement and selling, and the large subsidy -- currently on the order of Rs 550 crores to Rs 600 crores per year -- resulting from these operations. Seasonal cycles are far less clear for the minor cereals, partly because of their greater supply variability. The amplitude of the fluctuations is also larger, reflecting the full cost of storage including returns to private traders, since private trade is relatively more important in the marketing of these lesser cereals. 2.6 Graphs 2.1 and 2.2 compare the domestic wholesale prices, the pro- curement prices and the international market prices for rice and wheat. Both graphs indicate that in the late 1960s, Indian wholesale prices for rice and wheat were generally higher than world market prices. After 1972 (for rice) and 1973 (for wheat) the situation changed dramatically as food grain prices rose sharply on world markets to levels well above Indian market prices -- even though Indian prices were also rising fast. By 1976 world market prices had fallen again to levels at or below Indian prices, but with a much smaller difference than had prevailed in the 1960s and early 1970s. By 1979 the world market prices were about the same or slightly higher than Indian prices. Given the extreme volatility of world market prices, it is neither possible nor desirable to adjust domestic prices to world prices in the short run. In general India's wholesale prices for cereals are not greatly at variance with international prices. Procurement prices lie well below international prices in recent years. 2.7 These graphs also indicate that the government procurement prices have been consistently well below the wholesale market prices. This does not mean, however, that the procurement price has not been effective. The whole- sale price is an annual average for many markets. For the procurement price to work it has to be at or above the market price only in surplus markets around harvest time. A review of actual wholesale market prices in surplus producing areas shows that prices in these particular markets usually fall to the procurement price level around harvest time. Before 1977, this result was achieved by artificially restricting private sector movements of food- grains between surplus and deficit areas. In 1977, however, these zones were abolished and the procurement price has served effectively as a support price in surplus areas at harvest time. 1/ Because the price indices are averaged over time and across many markets, they understate local price differentials and short-duration peaks and troughs, and hence understate opportunities for profits from trade and storage. YEARS U l 0 us.$ PERTON 1966. 1'n 1966 I 1968 - 68 ° 1969- 1970 - 1971 - k 19 72 - \ \ I \~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I *~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ N 1973 1976 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o- 19 77 - - 1975 - 1977 - - 30 - GRAPH 2.2 WHEAT PRICES: procurement prices wholesale market prices- - internationat prices 210 - 190 6 180 - 17 0_ o 160.' '- E~ 150 - 12 10 - 76) 130 - 19 65 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 9 7 0 7 1 7 2 7 3 74 7 5 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 9 years - 31 - 2.8 Table 2.2 shows the price indices of cereals and of other major crops -- pulses, oilseeds, cotton, sugar and jute. Over the past 20 years cereal prices have fallen relative to the prices of pulses and oilseeds, risen relative to the prices of sugarcane and jute and exhibited no significant trend relative to the price of cotton. Prices of other crops are generally more erratic than the foodgrain prices however, and these long-term trends have been interrupted often by sharp temporary reversals. Table 2.2 PRICE INDICES: CEREALS AND OTHER AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES (1970/71 = 100) Year Cereals Pulses Oilseeds Cotton Sugar Jute 1959/60 50.1 42.4 37.4 46.6 54.9 48.1 1960/61 51.2 42.1 41.6 49.2 58.6 81.2 1961/62 50.1 41.7 43.4 47.8 58.6 68.8 1962/63 51.6 48.7 43.5 49.9 58.6 49.9 1963/64 56.1 54.0 43.9 53.3 62.6 50.6 1964/65 67.8 80.1 55.4 55.8 68.0 62.6 1965/66 73.3 79.6 67.1 56.8 67.8 90.5 1966/67 87.1 93.6 84.6 60.9 70.9 107.6 1967/68 103.5 136.5 81.0 68.1 85.7 70.6 1968/69 98.3 92.8 71.8 73.9 100.1 114.5 1969/70 100.9 99.6 90.6 81.7 100.1 99.1 1970/71 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1971/72 101.9 110.7 89.9 107.8 100.6 96.2 1972/73 115.8 137.9 100.8 91.6 110.1 109.5 1973/74 134.8 176.9 157.6 138.3 117.0 98.5 1974/75 198.8 215.7 172.4 168.8 118.4 103.5 1975/76 172.6 181.6 125.8 136.4 124.1 116.8 1976/77 154.1 145.7 150.8 197.5 125.8 126.6 1977/78 161.3 215.2 183.5 193.0 125.0 148.6 1978/79 157.6 247.1 159.0 168.6 136.2 146.6 Sources: H.L. Chandhok, "Wholesale Price Statistics, India, 1947-1978", Economic and Scientific Research Foundation, October 1978. "Revised Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices in India" Monthly Bulletin, Office of Economic Advisor, Ministry of Industry. 2.9 Shifts in cropping patterns have not been as sharp as one would expect from relative price movemenits alone. There appear to be good economic reasons for this. Table 2.3 compares price, yield and production trends for a shorter period. If price and yield are considered together (a revenue per hectare concept) there was very little change in the relative position of cereals, oilseeds and pulses in the period 1965/66-1977/78. Revenue per acre - 32 - from cotton increased faster than other major crops, and that of jute and sugarcane increased more slowly. In the case of sugar, the profitability of its cultivation dominates cereal production, in spite of the technological shifts over the past 15 years. Even for the Northern States, which are high cost sugar producers, net returns per hectare for sugar appear to be well above those for cereals, according to the cost of production estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture. Virtually, the entire productivity increase in cotton is explained by a shift of area out of rainfed cotton into irrigated cotton, resulting in a net reduction in total cotton area. Jute acreage has declined, as one would expect from the slow growth in its revenue per hectare compared with other crops; but lack of suitable alternative crops in certain growing conditions has limited this decline. Table 2.3 AREA, YIELD, PRICE AND PRODUCTION OF MAJOR CROPS, 1965/66-1977/78 ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (Annual % Growth Rates) Crop Area Yield Price Production Cereals 0.72 3.22 6.5 3.94 Pulses 0.47 0.82 8.0 1.28 Oilseeds 0.06 2.19 7.8 2.24 Cotton -0.63 2.92 10.4 2.29 Sugarcane 2.03 1.71 4.9 3.74 Jute -0.58 1.21 3.5 0.63 Source: T.N. Srinivasan, "Trends in Agriculture in India, 1949-50, to 1977/78" Economic and Political Weekly, Special Number, August 1979, p. 1287. Growth rates for prices are trend line estimates from Table 4.2 above. - 33 - 2.10 Graph 2.3 plots the changes in the prices of foodgrains relative to the prices of all other commodities and also the changes relative to the prices of fertilizers -- the major purchased input for crop production. There is no apparent trend in the terms of trade between foodgrains and all other commodities for the period as a whole, although there has been some decline since 1974. Given the increasing foodgrain productivity (as measured by yield growth) it is likely that foodgrain production has become more profitable relative to other sectors over the period despite the price trends. The same general points appear to apply also to fertilizer. While the price of foodgrains relative to fertilizer has been lower than some past peaks, it has been sufficient to stimulate a growth in fertilizer consumption on the order of 20% a year from 1975/76 to 1978/79. 2.11 In general the price mechanism and pricing policies appear to have worked toward achieving a number of objectives: price stability, protec- tion of farmers' incomes and foodgrain self-sufficiency. Severe market crashes have been avoided through the procurement system which, while operating effectively primarily for rice and wheat, appears to put a floor on other cereal prices as well. In recent years domestic procurement in a relatively free market has been sufficient to meet normal distribution requirements and to add marginally to buffer stock, indicating that the procurement prices were fairly well structured. B. Foodgrain Supply and Demand Projections 2.12 The increase in demand for foodgrains is projected on the basis of assumed ratios of growth of population and expenditure per capita and an empirically estimated relationship (an income/expenditure elasticity) between expenditure per capita and foodgrain consumption per capita. The overall expenditure elasticity is estimated to decline over the period as real per capita income increases and to average around 0.35. This is a lower estimate than used in the recent National Commission on Agriculture's demand estimate and in the Draft Sixth Plan and is based on the most recent household expendi- ture surveys. For these projections real prices are assumed constant; price effects are discussed separately in paragraph 2.21. Income distribution has been assumed not to change. 1/ The projection is somewhat more sensitive to changes in assumed expenditure growth. The demand projections assume that total expenditure per capita will grow in real terms by 2.13% per year, a considerable acceleration over the observed growth over the 1974-80 period 1/ The data used to estimate the total expenditure/foodgrain consumption relationship were available by income class, permitting a test of the sensitivity to changes in income distribution. The analysis showed the projections to be quite insensitive to changes in income distribution. A 1.0% per year decline in the Gini coefficient over 20 years raised project foodgrain demand for the year 2000 only 2% over the projection with no change in the income distribution. Consequently, the projections did not incorporate changes in income distribution. - 34 - GRAPH 2.3 PRICE INDEX foodgrains (1970/71z100) fertilisers all commodities except foodgrains_- 200 -1 150 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I ; 50- 50 a 19: 59 61 6 3 6 5 6 7 69 7 1 73 7 5 7 7 79 YEARS - 35 - (1.53% per year). 1/ Per capita consumption of foodgrains would increase by about 15% over the 20 year period on this assumption. Population projections affect demand projections for foodgrains significantly. The medium projection assumes an average population growth of 1.75% per year over the 20 year period as a whole. 2/ Any assumed change in this growth rate produces a nearly equal change in the growth rate of demand for foodgrains. There is an offset, in that higher population growth rates would be associated with lower per capita expenditure growth rates and hence lower per capita foodgrain demand. The assumed growth rate of population (1.75% per year) is above the government target population growth rate of 1.5% per year, which is an optimistic but not completely unrealistic estimate. The most pessimistic population projec- tion currently available is that of the U.N., which implies an average growth of 2% per year to the year 2000. 2.13 Graph 2.4 shows the medium foodgrain demand projection and a high and low projection based on population growth rates of 2.0% and 1.5% per year respectively. For both of the lower projections the population growth rate is assumed to decline gradually to reach the assumed 20 year average. It should be noted that all three projections of demand are lower than those often encountered in the past, which typically used 5% GDP growth rate, a 2% population growth rate and an income elasticity that remained constant at 0.5 over the projection period. All of the rates are now seen as at or above the higher ends of the feasible ranges. 2.14 Two broad approaches to projections of production are common. The first is based on an analysis of present and projected land use, irrigation availability and fertilizer consumption. Rough rules of thumb 3/ are used to 1/ With population growth rates of just over 1.9% per year in the next five years, a 2.13% growth rate in per capita expenditure corresponds to a growth of GDP of approximately 4% per year in real terms for that period. While this is above the growth rate achieved for any sustained period in recent Indian history, it is not an unreasonable target. It imparts an upward bias to the foodgrain demand estimates in the early years. For later years, declining population growth rates will allow 2.13% per capita expenditure growth with GDP growth rates more nearly equal to historical growth rates. 2/ Appendix 1 to this report provides descriptions of the family planning programs and projections of population growth. According to present Govermment targets, population growth rates would average 1.5% per year for the 1980-2000 period. Although these targets appear to be achievable as discussed in the appendix, on the basis of past performance in family planning, a more conservative estimate of 1.75% population growth was used in our medium estimates. Specifically, population growth rates were assumed to fall gradually over the next 20 years from the present 1.9% per annum to 1.6% per annum by the end of the period. 3/ In the NCA projections, one hectare of increased irrigation is assumed to add 0.5 tons to foodgrain production. One ton of increased fertilizer application to foodgrains is assumed to yield 10 tons of additional grain production. FOODGRAIN SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS 230 PRODUCTION AND APPARENT PROJECTION OF FOODGRAIN A 220 _ CONSUMPTION OF FOODGRAINS PRODUCTION AND DEMAND 2 1960- 1979 9 21 0 - 2 00 2 19/0 /3 180 _ actual production S a apparent consumption 1-17 0- 0 °160 - 0150 ° 140 - high demand .2 /2 medium demand -13 0 - - ¢,13 g, 3 l ow d em an d o120 _A high level production(3.0%) 1_ low level production(2.5%.) E-110 - A. C linear trend projection 100 - / (production increases 80 -~ 3 M tons p. a.) 8 0- 8 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I I I I I I Ji l ye a r s 6 2 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 - 37 - convert these factors into expected foodgrain production. Examples of this approach are the production projections of the National Commission on Agri- culture (NCA), 1/ and an average of the projections in the revised Draft Plan. 2/ 2.15 The NCA supply projections assume little change in the total area under foodgrains from the 1970/71 base period to the year 2000, but the propor- tion of foodgrain area irrigated is assumed to rise from about 25% in 1970/71 to 42% by the year 2000. This combined with a growth in fertilizer consump- tion of 7% a year is expected to generate an increase in production of about 2.8% per annum between 1970/71 and 1999/2000. It is notable that while vir- tually all of the projected growth is from an increase in average yields rather than area, the yield improvements are expected to be generated primarily by applying larger inputs of water and fertilizer, rather than by any substan- tial change in technology itself or any increased efficiency in input use. The assumed rates of growth of fertilizer (7%-8% per annum) and irrigation (1.5 million hectares/year) are well below actual achievements in recent years. 2.16 The revised Draft Sixth Plan projection extends to 1992/93 and it incorporates a somewhat lower base and different assumptions, adjusting the NCA approach to more recent experience. It assumes a significant increase (0.92% per annum) in area under foodgrains and a slower yield increase (1.75% per annum) resulting in a production increase of 2.7% per annum, only slightly less than that of the NCA. The Plan projections, however, imply much more conservative input/output assumptions than the NCA. To reach the projected levels of output, the Plan assumes a much more rapid development of irrigation, averaging 3.13 million hectares per year over the 15 year period, and a more rapid annual growth in fertilizer consumption (10.2%). A shift to greater use of improved varieties and irrigation is projected, thus shifting the mix of foodgrains to those with higher yields, but the yields of individual components of that mix are not projected to rise beyond levels actually attained in the early 1970s. 2.17 A second set of projections can be based on simple extrapolations of past growth rates following several alternative assumptions. The historical rate of growth of foodgrain yields between 1965/66, a poor agricultural year, and 1977/78, an unusually good year, was about 3% per year. The rate of growth of foodgrain production between 1967/68, a year of higher yields, and 1977/78 was 2.37% per year. 3/ A linear equation fitted to the production data for foodgrains for the period 1965/66-1978/79, including rainfall variables Rk rainfall in the kharif season) and R (rainfall in the rabi season) and a r time-trend variable (T) produces the following estimates: TP = 67.39 + 0.188 Rk + 0.06 R + 3.02 T 1/ Report of the National Commission on Agriculture, 1976, Part III, pp. 96-98. 2/ Draft Sixth Five Year Plan 1978-83 (Revised), p. 39. 3/ T.N. Srinivasan, "Trends in Agriculture in India, 1949-50 to 1977-78," Economic and Political Weekly, Special Number, August 1979, p.1287. - 38 - where TP is total foodgrain production (in millions of metric tons). The implication of this equation is that if weather is held constant, foodgrain production increases each year by just over 3 million tons, that is, by about 2.4% of foodgrain output in 1978/79. The time variable acts as a proxy for a mix of production-increasing changes: application of improved technology by farmers, more irrigation, more fertilizer. 2.18 Any extrapolation-type projections should take into account the fact that the rate of investment in agriculture has accelerated in this plan period. This should tend to raise the growth rate. The yardstick-type projections of NCA could be adjusted to take this higher investment into account, but the yardsticks themselves may be overly optimistic, making no allowance for diminishing marginal returns. The NCA projections have been above actual output from 1971, the NCA base period, to 1980. The implied Draft Plan yardsticks, on the other hand, probably err on the low side because they assume no increases in yields beyond those attributable to changes in varieties and irrigation with its complementary inputs. This would appear to understate the importance of improved technology. The Draft Plan nevertheless projects a fairly high growth rate because of its high estimate of irrigation development. Projections based on time trends take no account of accelerated investment, particularly in irrigation. However, they are based on a period of rapid technological change when the use of high yielding varieties and fertilizer use spread rapidly over parts of India. The growth of foodgrains of the last 15 years was achieved with large increases in irrigation and other inputs, and the application on farmers' fields of a backlog of more productive technology. As less costly irrigation opportunities are used up, as fertilizer faces diminishing marginal returns, and as the technical backlog is reduced, input/output ratios can be expected to increase. High projected growth rates necessarily assume a continuation of rapid increases in irrigated area and improvements in irrigation efficiency, and intensification of research and extension activities. 2.19 On balance, it would appear that supply growth rates in the neighbor- hood of 2.5% per year should be achievable, assuming that there is no shift away from foodgrains in irrigated areas. This would imply a growth in food- grain areas of about 0.5-0.7% per year and would thus require yield increases averaging only 1.8-2.0% per year, well below those achieved in the last decade. Output increases of 2.5% per year and 3.0% per year are plotted on Graph 2.4, starting from the trend estimate for 1980/81, as the upper and lower bounds to the probable growth trend of foodgrain output. 2.20 The supply and demand estimates discussed above and shown in Graph 2.4 suggest a growing surplus of foodgrains. Toward the end of the century, the gap between the medium demand growth path and the low production growth path becomes quite large. The medium demand line incorporates the most reasonable set of assumptions based on data currently available. Production growth could therefore be considerably lower than the lower output projection shown here -- as low as 2.3% per year -- and still meet the projected demand. If demand grows faster, i.e., if population growth remains high or foodgrain use per capita accelerates rapidly -- the higher demand line of Graph 2.4 -- demand growth will be nearly in balance with the lower supply growth path. To project any significant deficit would require that we project a worsening of - 39 - the trend in output performance. On the basis of the above analysis, a projection of a shortage in foodgrains, in other words, appears to be un- realistic. 1/ C. Implications 2.21 The projections suggest the real possibility of India moving into a period of sustainable foodgrain self-sufficiency or surplus. This outlook is substantially more optimistic than many past projections. As a new conclusion, it deserves to be treated with caution and interpreted with perspective. Foodgrain production will still depend on the monsoon and consecutive years of monsoon failure could lead India to import grain. The analysis contains new assumptions based on the latest available data on the prospects for population growth, household expenditure patterns and production which lead one to the optimistic conclusions as far as market supply/demand balances are concerned. The optimism of this conclusion should not translate into complacency about the prospects for eliminating poverty and undernutrition in India by the year 2000. The projections imply rising per capita consumption of foodgrains, and this, together with the possibility of falling real prices for foodgrains discussed below, would have a beneficial impact on poverty and nutrition. Nevertheless, these problems are more entrenched and require different solu- tions than those alleviated by comfortable supply/demand balance alone. 2.22 Another aspect of this favorable outlook left out of the analysis is the costs of achieving the supply growth. The Government's foodgrain pricing and stocking policies which have led to the maintenance of stable, incentive prices for producers and have moderated price rises to consumers even in the years of drought, have also cost a budget subsidy of over US$600 million. Given the interests of producers to maintain high market prices of foodgrains and of consumers to maintain low market prices, the politics of foodgrain pricing could lead to maintained or even higher subsidies, if left unchecked. Increasing irrigated area has required a program of investment in irrigation and (for tubewells) power that now absorbs a large proportion of plan expenditure and, because of low cost recoveries, add a considerable burden to the Government's budget. Fertilizer pricing policy has resulted in price subsidies on both domestically produced and imported fertilizers rising to the order of US$600 million. It is not self-evident that the costs of achieving self-sufficiency or surplus of foodgrains have been too high, but the questions of the costs deserve more attention and analysis. 2.23 Nevertheless, foodgrain self-sufficiency or surplus, if it comes about, will be an impressive achievement of a long standing goal of Indian economic development. It indicates that India, by continuing its major efforts in agriculture, may be in the desirable position of having a range of options which she did not have during the period when increasing foodgrain output was the overriding goal of agricultural development. Among these options are the following: 1/ To illustrate this point a linear growth in supply of 3 million tons per year (as estimated from the linear trend equation of paragraph 4.18 above) is also charted on Graph 2.4. Note that simple extension of past absolute growth is sufficient to meet medium projected demand until the mid-1990s. - 40 - (a) A slowly falling real price of foodgrains to absorb a greater quantity of foodgrains in household consumption. The past several years have already seen a modest decline in real foodgrain prices and rise in per capita consumption, and the apparent 1978/79 level of household foodgrain consumption, which averages out to 170 kg per capita per year, is approximately equal to a caloric-sufficient quantity, on average, for the Indian population. With unequal distribution of this consumption, this means undernutrition for lower income groups. The 1980/81 per capita consumption that would have been consistent with past trends is considerably below this, at 158 kg. The demand projections shown above imply 15% growth (i.e., to 182 kg.) in per capita consumption over the 20 year period from its trend level in 1980/81. A faster rate of growth of consumption could undoubtedly be justified on simple nutrition grounds for the lower income groups in the Indian population, and a continuation of the gradual decline in real prices would help bring about this result. (b) Exports of Foodgrains. With the present situation of procure- ment prices and world market prices, it may be possible for India to procure and export surpluses of the major foodgrains, wheat and rice, with little loss to the Govermment. India would face some problems in selling in world grain markets: the variability in world prices, the thin international market for rice, and the fact that Indian grain varieties may not be easily marketed internationally. Although the export option may still be some years in the future, the possibilities are worth investigating. (c) Rationalization of domestic markets and prices. Price distortions abound in the Indian foodgrain market: fertilizer prices and water rates are subsidized; during the majority of years in the last two decades, food zones (prohibition of free domestic movement of grains) have been imposed, constituting an inefficient tax on production in surplus areas and on free market consumption in deficit areas; during almost the entire last decade, levy systems have been imposed on the rice trade, constituting another tax on production, which varies greatly from State to State; partly to facilitate levies, rice milling has been controlled; procurement prices in recent years have probably been above market clearing prices in surplus areas and consumption is consistently subsidized through the handling and marketing losses of the Food Corporation of India and the Fair Price Shops. An easy foodgrain situation should allow some rationalization of these markets. Food zones have already disappeared, as they have disappeared off and on, in every period of relatively good production. The Government has been able to procure freely adequate quantities of wheat at the procurement price without zonal restrictions. Adequate rice stocks have been procured with less reliance on the levy system. In the longer run, input prices could be raised toward costs, and/or subsidies could be reduced through the Food Corporation of India and Fair Price Shops as an alternative or partial alternative to falling real prices. (d) Diversification in Agriculture. An obvious substitution possibility is to grow and process more oilseeds to replace edible oils imports. Currently, oilseeds are grown on about 15.5 million hectares and they compete for land with the foodgrain group. Over the last two decades there has been stagnation in areas under oilseeds, with very little - 41 - year to year fluctuation in area. No procurement prices are fixed for the oilseed group, but since 1976/77 there have been support prices fixed yearly for the most important oilseeds. These price supports have never been important in the oilseeds market, since wholesale prices in harvest periods stay well above support prices. Oilseed prices have risen much faster than prices of the foodgrains over the long run, but they have also been more erratic. As shown in Table 2.3, when both yield and price factors are con- sidered, it is doubtful that the profitability of oilseeds has risen suf- ficiently to compete with grains. Prices of domestically produced groundnut oil and other edible oils are currently above international prices but in many years they have been roughly comparable with international prices, as Table 2.4 shows. Large increases in domestic prices to simulate groundnut oil production would hardly be justified on efficiency grounds. The main focus should be on raising yields, thereby improving oilseeds' relative competitiveness for farmers' land. Cotton, grown on 7-9 million hectares, is a potentially important fiber crop competitor with foodgrains for land. Cotton area has declined slightly over the long run. Long-term increases in cotton prices exceed those of any of the other major crops but seasonal price volatility has been severe, with differences between highest and lowest wholesale prices being as high as 50% in some years of the last decade, and fluctuations in the neighborhood of 30%-40% being common. The long-term trend in cotton productivity has been higher than that of most crops on account of increasing irrigation of cotton in a few States. Nevertheless India, which has the world's largest area under cotton, has the lowest average yields of any major producer. There is little productivity increase that cannot be attributed to increased irrigation. Cotton export performance has been erratic and no clear policy of exportation has been followed. Currently, for example, the international price of cotton would permit very profitable exports, but these are limited to protect the domestic textile industry. In the long run, cotton exports are a possibility, but this would probably require a major effort to raise yields, particularly in rainfed areas. Table 2.4 GROUNDNUT OIL PRICES, PAIRED OBSERVATIONS BOMBAY AND EUROPEAN PORTS (Rs per quintal) Date of Observation European Port Price Bombay Price (c.i.f.) November 1971 285 375 December 1973 655 722 November 1974 906 817 December 1975 669 492 January 1977 809 740 December 1977 829 732 December 1978 852 690 October 1979 684 1155 Source: Agricultural Situation in India, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, Various issues. - 42 - 2.24. The past few years, including the current severe drought year, have been years of relatively abundant foodgrain supplies. The long-run prospects for foodgrain supply and demand balances are favorable. Persistent shortage seems quite unlikely and it is probable that a wide range of policy options will become much more practical as the overriding emphasis on foodgrains can be somewhat relaxed. The purpose of this chapter has been to raise some of the major questions about policy options in the light of a possible emerging surplus. Virtually all of the suggested options will require a new slant to analysis of the sector and a gradual shift in emphasis in policy rather than a dramatic break with past practices. For example, the extensive information on input/ output relationships at the farm level, available from India's cost-of- production studies, could well be used to examine such questions as comparative advantage between cotton, oilseeds and certain foodgrains and such questions may be given increasing consideration in developing agricultural pricing policies. Although such questions were perhaps esoteric in periods of food- grain stringency, they will become relevant for policy if and as foodgrain surpluses emerge. - 43 - Chapter 3 INFRASTRUCTURE A. Introduction 3.1 As explained in the first part of this Report the stagnation of industrial output during 1979/80 has been caused primarily by shortages of industrial inputs. There is evidence, including rapid price rises, indus- trialists' statements and investment behavior, of continued buoyancy in final product demand. Nevertheless attempts to expand overall industrial output have been effectively frustrated, partly by labor unrest but mainly by input shortages. 3.2 To a limited extent, the input scarcities are due to the severe drought of the summer of 1979, and they will be alleviated by a return to normal crop years. Most of the slump in agricultural processing industries, for example, can be best analyzed in connection with the agricultural sector, and best prevented by the general package of policies aimed at long-term increase in agricultural output and its protection from drought. Hydro- electric energy suffered a shortfall due to drought, which aggravated the power shortage. But the main causes of the 1979/80 slump in industrial production are only peripherally related to the drought. They are, rather, the shortages in intermediate goods produced in the industrial sector itself, shortages in basic infrastructural sectors, and shortages and price increases in the petroleum sector. 3.3 Three key intermediate inputs -- coal, steel and cement -- were in short supply in 1979/80. All three are industries where domestic produc- tion of the bulk of India's needs appears to be clearly justified on grounds of comparative advantage and where the aim of policy is complete self-sufficiency. In spite of the fact that all are tradeable commodities, this year's shortfalls in production have not been fully made up by imports, and the results have been slowdowns and dislocations in using industries. 3.4 Petroleum products have also been in short supply, due largely to the growth in demand for some products being much higher than anticipated. Disorder in international markets contributed to the failure to adjust quickly enough to these demand changes, and shortages were aggravated by port conges- tion and labor disturbances in the petroleum sector. But the medium and long- run problem with petroleum supplies is quite different from that in coal, steel and cement; India is not likely to become self-sufficient in petroleum in the near and medium term, and must continue to relieve domestic shortages by organ- izing imports to meet industrial needs. The keys to solving the petroleum shortage are to expand exploration to find the reserves for increased domestic production and to generate the foreign exchange needed to pay for the imported residual. 3.5 Output from two key infrastructural sectors -- electricity and trans- portation -- continue to lag seriously behind demand, and their shortages now - 44 - impose severe constraints on industrial output. In the electricity sector the shortages were anticipated and the reiterated policy of Government is to provide adequate service. The current shortages of electricity can be viewed as the result of failure of power generation to grow quite rapidly enough, in spite of high priority awarded to the sector, combined with both extraordinary demands and shortfalls in hydel supplies due to the drought. In the transport sector, both capacity scarcity and management difficulties, primarily diffi- culties in keeping a full labor force effectively functioning, have led up to the present shortages. The solution to the transport problem demands accele- ration and bringing forward of major investments for increased capacity and improved technology. 3.6 Shortages in key intermediate input sectors reinforce and aggravate one another. Relief of any one of them will contribute to easing of the rest of them. But it does not follow that investment strategy in these sectors needs to concern itself with these interlaced complexities. In general, the requirements of each sector can be treated separately, with relatively straightforward handling of the bottlenecks in each sector. 3.7 Before proceeding to a separate discussion of each of these inter- mediate product industries and infrastructure, a few general points can be made. It is clear that output growth in the recent past has been below what would appear to be warranted on the basis of recent investments, and there are clearly defined management problems, discussed in later sections of this chapter which, if eliminated, could add substantially to output. For example, the coal industry's production losses on account of labor unrest, absenteeism, and "other problems" which are mainly law and order problems, were about 4 million tons higher in 1978/79 than in 1977/78. Some improvement on this performance should be possible. Similarly, railway tonnage was down below what could be explained by increased length of haul or turnaround times. And the thermal electricity sector has recently declined about 5% in its percentage of plant that is fit for service at any one time. Any improvement in electric- ity supply must help to relieve shortages in other infrastructure sectors. But the potential effect of short run improvements should not be overestimated. India does not have much "unutilized capacity" in these sectors in a practical sense of that term. Furthermore, attempts to use the railroad more effectively, or to get the thermal power plant operating a greater percentage of the time, or to smooth over the factor supply problems of the coal sector are probably best thought of as long-run efforts of management. It is unrealistic to expect any quick revolution in management technique to cause a rapid jump in output, and still more unrealistic to expect to achieve these improvements when the infrastructure systems are generally overloaded. 3.8 Even in areas where potential for short-run improvement is obvious, the infrastructure for industrial growth and even for agricultural growth is very thin. This seems to relate to past planning judgements which operated too close to the margin: electricity investments, given the slippage in the sector, have consistently been underprogrammed and were planned to operate at utilization rates that have proved unrealistically high; cement investments were delayed unduly on account of uneconomic pricing; coal investments were accelerated but then decelerated too much in an attempt to fine-tune to shortfalls from predicted demand; and transportation investment seems, on the - 45 - whole, simply underprogrammed. For these reasons, possibility of some improvements in efficiency in the short run -- although important -- should not detract attention from the basic constraint, namely that major expansion of capacity and large expenditures are needed in order to provide adequate and stable supplies in these sectors in the medium term. 3.9 For the tradeables, cement and coal, capacity shortages are serious impediments to orderly supply of domestic needs and imply an unnecessary drain on foreign exchange. Imports have not been sufficient to meet the shortfalls in these commodities, but rather have supplemented the supplies to priority users through official distribution channels. There has been no conserted attempt to import enough coal and cement to meet the market demands of other users. The steel industry would supply the bulk of domestic needs if input problems and start-up problems could be overcome; imports have been consider- ably liberalized to make up most of the production shortfall but these are much more expensive than domestic steel products. 3.10 Investments are already underway to alleviate the shortages but larger efforts are needed. Investment bottlenecks have been eliminated in the cement sector, and the shortage there is likely to be short run. The pace of investment in coal is probably just sufficient to meet modest demand growth and not sufficient for the major substitution of coal for oil. In the freight transportation sector, however, it appears that planned invest- ment may result in fairly persistent shortages unless it is accelerated. And in the power sector, even very rapid growth will not completely remove the shortages in the medium term future. It is therefore important to protect the planned level of investment in industrial infrastructure and accelerate parts of it. There is a strong case for seeking more assistance in these sectors, which by and large have massive capital needs and relatively well developed capacity to absorb assistance, rather than letting investment slip, as domestic resource constraints grow in the next few years. B. Coal 3.11 Coal production has been approximately constant from 1975/76 to 1978/79 at about 100 million tons per year. Shortages were already apparent in 1977/78. For 1978/79 the shortage was estimated at 9 million tons and the deficit for 1979/80 is about 15 million tons, according to Planning Commission estimates of demand. (Alternate demand estimates by the Coal Department imply a shortage of only 8 million tons.) Production may increase in 1979/80 to about 104 million tons. In general the shortages are not made up by imports. Coal consumption of major industries has therefore shown little growth. Though the shortage cannot be precisely documented, it is readily apparent that major users, which are themselves intermediate goods industries, are seriously short of coal. As shown in Table 3.1 most of the major users have received little increase in coal supplies or have actually suffered cutbacks in the last few years. - 46 - Table 3.1 COAL CONSUMPTION BY INDUSTRY (in million tons) April October Industry 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1978 to 1970 Steel 18.51 20.93 22.30 21.54 20.26 7.37 6.87 Power 20.04 23.44 27.70 27.98 28.72 16.50 18.66 Railways 13.31 14.30 13.30 13.93 12.39 7.08 7.01 Cement 3.62 4.44 4.70 5.10 4.94 2.88 2.78 Fertilizer 0.95 0.93 0.70 1.26 2.66 0.96 1.33 Bricks n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.36 1.46 0.85 0.35 Total Con- sumption 87.14 94.40 99.80 104.51 100.00 54.92 57.07 Source: Department of Coal. 3.12 For railways and electricity power stations, the shortage takes the form of generally inadequate inventories and poor coal quality, though inter- ruptions in their production on account of absolute coal unavailability has been only sporadic and comparatively minor. The steel, aluminum and cement industries had suffered from absolute shortage of fuel, and steel industry has not had adequate coking coal in spite of the importation of one million tons of coking coal. The result has been absolute decreases in output in these sectors. The brick industry, having low priority, has been very severely affected. It is estimated that the 1979/80 use of coal purchased on the legal market by the brick industry will be about one-fifth that of 1977/78. 3.13 Transport shortages have contributed to the coal supply problem; in the general situation of scarcity and very low working stocks, delay in deliveries caused by transport shortage is much more serious than it would be if stocks of coal were adequate. But beyond this transport/inventory problem there is an apparent absolute shortage of rail services for moving coal, as evidenced by a rapid increase in truck haulage. 3.14 Production trends by individual companies show considerable varia- tions. There were substantial increases in output in the Western Coalfields and the Singareni Mines of the South since nationalism, as these companies were not so adversely affected by power constraints and law and order and labor problems. In the Central Coalfields, situated outside the Bihar-Bengal belt, the rate of increases has been less. Since 1975/76, these increases have been offset by declines in the Eastern Coalfields and the Bharat Coking Coalfields in the Bengal-Bihar belt. 3.15 Coking coal output has remained constant at about 23 million tons. Production of non-coking coal is more heavily concentrated in lower grades with higher ash content, as according to the plan of Coal India Limited. Production of hard coke used in the engineering industry, has fallen rapidly. Deterioration in quality is partly the result of power shortages at four of the nine major washeries. Partly the deterioration is caused by increased reliance on open cast mines, due to the greater difficulty of mining deeper higher grade coals. - 47 - Table 3.2: COAL PRODUCTION 1974/75-1978/79 (in million tons) 1973/74- 1978/79 Growth Estimates 1973/ 1974/ 1975/ 1976/ 1977/ 1978/ Rates 1979/80 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 p.a. Official Bank Bharat Coking Coal 16.34 17.74 20.09 20.68 20.22 19.73 3.8 19.60 19.78 Eastern Coal- fields 21.06 23.15 26.19 26.47 25.23 22.05 0.9 21.80 21.35 Central Coal- fields 15.55 18.31 20.69 20.73 21.20 23.43 8.5 24.50 24.17 Western Coal- fields 16.44 19.26 21.46 21.04 21.69 24.23 8.1 26.50 25.47 North Eastern Coalfields 0.42 0.53 0.55 0.57 0.62 0.62 8.1 0.60 0.60 Total Coal India Limited 69.81 78.99 88.98 89.49 88.96 90.06 5.2 93.00 91.36 Singareni 5.31 6.18 7.36 8.30 8.91 9.01 11.0 10.52 10.00 DVC ( 0.27 0.29 0.25 0.18 0.18) iISCO (3.05 0.54 0.85 0.83 0.69 0.48) -1.7 3.00 3.00 TISCO ( 2.21 2.18 2.14 2.24 2.14) Total All India /a 78.17 88.41 99.68 101.04 101.00 101.90 5.4 106.52 104.36 /a Includes Government owned coal mines in Jammu and Kashmir and Orissa. Source: Coal India Limited Table 3.3: LOSS OF PRODUCTION IN COAL INDIA LIMITED 1977/78-1979/80 (in million tons) 1979/80 April- 1977/78 1978/79 September Power Shortage 2.33 3.67 3.18 Absenteeism 1.24 4.49 2.73 Explosive shortage 1.18 0.25 0.45 Labor unrest 0.65 1.20 0.49 Floods 1.04 3.62 - Other problems including law and order 2.11 3.15 2.55 All factors 8.55 16.38 9.40 Source: Coal India Limited. - 48 - 3.16 Short-run problems, rather than capacity shortages, account for the abrupt end to growth of coal output after 1975/76. A quantification of the effects of short-run difficulties has been made by Coal India Limited, which produces about 90% of total coal output. The results of this study are shown in Table 3.3. Assuming these estimates to be roughly accurate, the recent demand for coal could easily have been met from the present capacity of the coal mines, had ideal short-run circumstances prevailed, but the 1979/80 demand would fully utilize domestic production capabilities even under such ideal conditions. Thus the problems of the coal industry have to be tackled on both fronts, namely, by improved management and by better plan- ning for capacity expansion. 3.17 Apart from the shortage of explosives, which is primarily a problem of getting imports scheduled on time, none of the short-run problems detailed in the table can be solved by Coal India Limited alone. Adding up the loss on account of absenteeism, labor unrest (i.e. strikes, lockouts and go-slows) and "other problems", which are largely labor-related law and order problems, it is clear that year after year the industry faces a substantial loss on account of labor difficulties. The lack of orderly labor supplies to the industry is not new or surprising; in fact it is a chronic and notorious problem inherent in the method of organization and in the working conditions of the industry. While it seems pessimistic to conclude that production shortfalls due to labor should be projected, it would be unrealistic to assume that losses can be reduced to a very low level in the short run. 1/ Power shortage has also been persistent and widespread. Presently it is most acute in the Bengal-Bihar coal belt, where failure to pump water out of mines on account of power short- ages has led to substantial flooding of deep mines. Power shortage has also caused major interruptions in washeries operation. The Government has recently installed captive gas turbine generators to ease the shortage in Bengal-Bihar collieries and normal improvement in power supplies with increased priority for the coal industry could reduce losses due to power shortage to reasonable levels in the near future. 3.18 It is not possible to make a precise estimate of the potential for increasing output by eliminating these short-run problems. A reasonable guess might be that increases in output could be on the order of 10 million tons per year; that is, half the current shortage might be made up through improvements in explosive supply, power supply and the labor market. But to cater for all domestic needs, substantial additional capacity will be required. 3.19 Demand Patterns and Prospects. Coal has been a relatively slow growing energy source over the long run, output increasing by 2.4% per year during the 1960s and 3.8% per year during the 1970s. On a direct basis its share in the total consumption of commercial energy has fallen from 48% to 1/ By stationing high level Central Labor Ministry personnel in the coal areas, since January 1980, it has been possible to reduce the number of pending labor disputes. This, and similar administrative adjust- ments, can probably bring the losses due to labor problems down toward its normal -- still high -- level. - 49 - 23%, the lost share of coal being taken up by electricity and petroleum in nearly equal parts. Petroleum has increased its share from 40% to 51%, and electricity from 13% to 25%. 1/ The slow growth in coal use during the 1960s was primarily caused by sluggish demand, with the low prices of electricity and petroleum serving to depress the coal demand until the sudden increase in petroleum costs of the early 1970s. Production rose rapidly in the early 1970s in response to the oil price hike, the intensification of development of coal using industries, and the beginning of a phased changeover from oil to coal in several major industries. During the period 1970/71 to 1975/76, output increased from 73 million tons per year to 100 million tons. Subse- quently problems of coal supply hampered growth of consumption so that, for the decade as a whole, there has been no net changeover from other energy sources to coal; for the period 1970/71 to 1978/79, both oil use and electri- city use grew faster, at 6% per year, to coal's growth of 3.8% per year. Thus the trend away from coal use continues in spite of the radically changed cost structure of fuels. 3.20 Demand for coal has proven to be very difficult to forecast. Ini- tial forecasts of the Fifth Plan (1974) anticipated a very rapid conversion to coal and estimated 1978/79 demand of 135 million tons. Successive reitera- tions eventually scaled this estimate down to 124 million tons, and in the Draft Sixth Plan (1978) the 1978/79 demand was estimated at only 109 million tons. (Actual consumption, constrained by supply shortages, was 100 million tons.) The Draft Sixth Plan estimates project rapid growth in demand, to 144.5 million tons in 1982/83. The Coal Department, on the basis of a more detailed study into the phasing of demand increase in the steel and power sector, which together with cement account for the bulk of the expected increase in demand, has a similar estimate: a demand of 140 million tons in 1982/83. Accepting the Coal Department's estimate of 1979/80 demand (112 million tons) this would imply growth of 8% per year, an unprecedented growth but not unreason- able in view of accelerated development of coal based electricity and steel output, and the vast increase in cement capacity that will be coming on line in about 1982/83. If the estimate is incorrect, it is probably just under- estimating by a year or so the timing of the demand increase. 3.21 Production Planning, Investments and Technology. Since nationali- zation, in 1971 and 1973 for coking coal mines and non-coking coal mines respectively, the coal authorities have gone through a cycle of sorts in their investment planning: a rush to rehabilitate, reorganize and increase production in view of the massive forecasted increase in demand, a delay 1/ Alternatively, the "primary" sources of energy, rather than the "direct" use can be examined to make approximately the same point. The adjustment required is to attribute the coal based part of the electricity sector to coal, the "primary" source. On this basis, the coal share includes about 90% of the conventional thermal energy supplied by the electricity sector. Conventional thermal energy supplied 53% of electricity energy in 1960/61 and in 1979/80. Thus, to adjust to primary sources would imply putting an approximately constant portion of the electricity share, some 53%, under the coal heading. On this basis coal declined from about 55% of primary energy to about 36% of primary energy. - 50 - or stretching out of the investment schedule in the mid-seventies when the big increase in demand did not materialize, and finally another attempt to speed up investment activity in the late 1970s as it became obvious that the capacity was insufficient for current demand, given the chronic production difficulties in the industry. At present the Coal Department reckons demand to be about 140 million tons by 1982/83; their investment targets are geared to reach a higher level of capacity, 160 million tons, by 1983. 3.22 Indian coal fields differ quite dramatically in their potential for short-run increases in output. The Eastern coalfields are old and pre-modern, and many individual mines are approaching exhaustion. The infrastructure serv- ing these mines was planned and constructed for a lower level of output. The Central and Western mines are newer, and they still have excess capacity in much of their basic servicing infrastructure. Therefore, the recent growth in output has been concentrated in the Western and Central fields, largely from new mines. About 70% of recent investment in the Eastern fields has been to replace existing mines that become exhausted, and the combination of exhaustion of mines, flooding and labor problems caused an actual drop in Eastern field production. 3.23 Investments scheduled in the Draft Sixth Plan would reverse the decline in the Eastern fields and continue the growth in Western and Central fields. The pattern of production at the end of the planning period would be as shown in Table 3.4 if investment plans were fully realized. Table 3.4 COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES (in million tons) Actual Bank Estimate Plan Estimate 1978/79 1979/80 1982/83 Eastern Coalfields 22.05 21.30 35.44 Bharat Coking Coal 19.73 19.60 28.62 Central Coalfields 23.43 24.10 38.47 Western Coalfields 24.23 25.40 34.60 North Eastern Coalfields 0.62 0.60 1.18 Total Coal India Limited 90.06 91.30 138.31 Singareni, TISCO, HSCO & Others 11.81 13.00 21.44 Total 101.90 104.30 160.05 Source: Coal India and World Bank Estimates 3.24 From a financial point of view, the investment program required to achieve this 1982/83 production is provided for in the allocations of the Draft Sixth Plan which total US$2,590 million at 1978/79 prices, of which - 51 - nearly half is for ongoing schemes. This compares to an actual investment of US$886 million in the Fifth Plan period and represents a major acceleration in planned investment. Investment actually undertaken in the Sixth Plan period of US$327 million in 1978/79 and an estimated US$450 million in 1979/80 is to be increased to US$617 million in each of the remaining years; 1978/79 and 1979/80 investments already demonstrate substantial acceleration. 3.25 The actual physical execution of projects in the Draft Sixth Plan is likely to be below plan targets even if adequate financing is provided. There are three main difficulties. First, the hiatus in project planning and execu- tion in the mid-1970s resulted in a small pipeline of projects at the beginning of the Sixth Plan period. Capacity in 1982/83 on the basis of mines existing and projects ongoing at the beginning of the plan period would reach only 117 million tons. Beyond that, reconstruction programs in existing mines were expected to yield 17 million tons. The remaining 26 million tons of new capa- city was expected from new mines on which work was not yet underway at the beginning of the plan period. Roughly half of these projects had yet to be finalized and sanctioned. It is reasonable to discount entirely the capacity estimates from new mines not yet finalized at the beginning of the Plan and to anticipate very little capacity, say 5 million tons, to be in place by 1982/83 from the new mines for which plans were finalized at the beginning of the Plan. This results in the capacity estimate for 1982/83 being downgraded to an order of 139-140 million tons. 3.26 A second difficulty is likely to arise from the change in technique that is envisaged during the plan period. About 80% of capacity in 1978/79 was in underground mines using a traditional, labor-intensive board and pillar system. It is proposed to hold board-and-pillar-system output constant while very gradually mechanizing about one-fifth of it through 1982/83. The increases in output are to come from a doubling, to 52 million tons, in open cast mining, and an increase in long-wall underground mining from very low levels (3 million tons capacity), in 1978/79 to 23 million tons in 1982/83. While the changeover to more mechanized board-and-pillar operations and the increase in open cast mines present little problem in adaptation of technique, the very fast growth in long-wall mining, a relatively complex and mechanized underground mining technology, may require a longer time period. Although the technique is widely used internationally, Indian labor has very little experi- ence with it. 3.27 The third difficulty in 1982/83 production plans arises from the distinction, not made in the forecasts, between capacity (in a physical and technical sense) and likely maximum output. In 1978/79, faced with excess demand, the coal industry managed a production of 102 million tons from an estimated capacity of 115 million tons, the shortfall caused by problems dis- cussed in paragraphs 3.15 and 3.16 above. Some allowance for similar problems must be made in the 1982/83 figures. 3.28 On balance, it appears that there should be some relief from the coal shortage in the near future. By 1983 a technical capacity of about 140 million tons is foreseeable. Assuming some improvement in the labor situa- tion and power supply, an output on the order of 130 million tons should be achieved, and this would supply 1979/80 estimated demand (115 million tons) - 52 - plus modest growth in demand. But the coal supply situation in 1982/83 still figures to be tight, and efforts to expand capacity further, for example to bring the new mines included in the Draft Sixth Plan to full production, should continue to have high priority. 3.29 Longer-Term Investment Plans, Reserves, Exploration, Trade and Pricing. The basic strategy for longer-term investment plans is to continue to shift to open cast mines and to modernize and mechanize underground mining operations. Master plans exist for a major increase in coking coal output through the introduction of open cast mines and modernization of existing mines as Jharia in Bihar. This investment would triple the capacity for pro- duction in coking coal. Major washeries are planned to upgrade non-coking coal and there are plans for development to use lignite deposits in several areas. 3.30 While these long range investment plans are still uncertain, there is little doubt of the possibility of long-run expansion. Estimated reserves, according to the Draft Sixth Plan, are 83 billion tons; proven reserves are 21 billion tons of which 8.3 billion tons are coking coal. Three agencies-- the Geological Survey, the Mineral Exploration Corporation, and the Explora- tion Bureau of Central Mines are active in the search for and testing of new deposits. 3.31 Except for a long-term agreement to import a million tons a year of high quality coking coal to meet the immediate needs of the steel industry, there are no plans for trade in coal. In general the aim is to be self- sufficient in coal, expanding production to meet estimated demand. 3.32 Coal prices have been revised infrequently--in 1975 and again in 1979. Coal prices are fixed at the pithead, and their structure is meant to reflect the calorific value of the various grades produced. The level of tariffs is meant to cover costs with a reasonable return and to keep coal competitive against other fuels. Prices are not used as a short-run rationing device; in periods of scarcity coal is awarded on the basis of administered priorities, with the result that major users, such as electricity plants, railroads, and steel, get preferential treatment at prices reflecting (roughly) cost of production and transport, and that non-favored industries, such as the brick industry, cannot purchase coal in legal markets in adequate quanti- ties. In fact the price set for coal between 1975 and 1979 did not cover costs of production; heavy losses were sustained by Coal India Limited, particularly toward the end of that period. The 1979 price revision is thought to provide adequate revenues for the coal companies to earn modest profits. Since the decisions to invest in coal (as well as the allocation decisions) are basic- ally administrative rather than market decisions, the failure to price accurately is not as serious as it was, for example, in cement, where low prices depressed investment for nearly a decade. The revised higher price will, however, help to ration more efficiently that part of the coal output which is not allocated to major users. C. Cement 3.33 Since 1977 there has been a continuous and growing shortage of cement. The shortage in 1979/80 is estimated at about 3 million to 5 million - 5 3 - tons, 15%-25% of actual domestic supplies. Cement is rationed administra- tively through a three-tiered system: Public sector users have first priority; users earmarked by Government have second priority; and the residual cement available is allocated to the states for sale in the open market at controlled prices. The handling of residual open market supplies varies from state to state with some states controlling or directly undertaking distribution even in this part of the market. Cement is also available in a very thin black market at prices ranging from 25% to 100% above official prices. Since 1976, a year of adequate supply, there has been a steady decline in cement available on the open market from 10.4 million tons in 1976 to 8.9 million tons in 1978 due to both supply constraints and growth in Government demands. The decline apparently continues to the present, as only 4.1 million tons were available during the first half of 1979. If this availability can be projected to the full year, 1979 cement availability in the free market is down about 20% from the 1976 level. 3.34 In contrast, supplies delivered to public sector users and to users earmarked by Government have increased substantially, from 7.4 million tons in 1976 to 11.5 million tons in 1978 and 6.6 million tons in the first half of 1979, reflecting the increased government investment, particularly in cement-intensive projects such as irrigation, power, and water supply. Although the cement shortage weighs most heavily on private uses, delays are experienced even by high priority users. 3.35 In principle, domestic shortages could be made up by imports. How- ever, the landed cost of imported cement is much higher than the ex-factory prices granted to domestic production. In the 1970s up to 1977/78, India was a marginal net exporter of cement (1%-3% of output). Since 1978/79, however, most exports have ceased and annual imports of about 1.7 million tons have been contracted to reduce shortages; similar import levels are anticipated for the next few years. 3.36 The causes of the present shortage are strong demand growth in recent years combined with a very slow growth in installed capacity for the last several years and inadequate utilization of existing capacity. Domestic avail- ability of cement (including net imports) increased from 17.8 million tons in 1976 to 18.0 and 20.4 million tons in 1977 and 1978, respectively, amounting to about 7% growth rate per annum between 1976 and 1978 but not enough to satisfy domestic demand. Since 1971/72, capacity has increased by only 15%, that is at about 2% per year. Actual production growth has been faster, averaging about 3.7% per year between 1971/72 and 1978/79 but declined by about 8% in the first ten months of 1979/80 compared to the same period of the previous year. As a result, capacity utilization declined from about 88% in 1976/77 and 1977/78 to 86% in 1978/79 and less than 80% in the first ten months of 1979/80. The main reasons for the deterioration in the rate of capacity utilization are coal and power shortages. 3.37 The private sector accounts for 90% of cement production, and investment in the cement industry has thus been determined primarily by its profitability at the government administered prices, called retention prices. Although these prices have been adjusted upward from time to time they have lagged behind the general increase in prices, with the result that new investment was unremunerative. In 1977, profitability of new cement capacity - 54 - changed dramatically when the Government introduced a price for cement from new plants and from major additions to existing plants which was 85% higher than the ruling administered price. In May 1979, a general revision in prices went into effect. Existing plants were grouped into three categories depending on their production costs, and three prices were introduced for existing plants. The retention price for new plants was maintained. Table 3.5 shows the evolution of the relative price of cement (in terms of non- primary commodities). The relative price of cement has increased since 1973/ 74; at present, capacity established before September 1977 is granted on average, a relative price which is about 7% lower than in 1970/71. 1/ Cement from new plants or from substantial expansions undertaken after September 1977 has at present a relative price about 35% higher than in 1970/71. 2/ Table 3.5 CEMENT PRODUCER PRICES Ex factory Retention Price Wholesale Price Relative Price of Naked Cement n Current Index of Non- of Cement tq Rs per ton- Primary Articles Producers- 1965/66 83.1 75.9 109.5 1966/67 93.5 82.3 113.6 1967/68 93.5 85.6 109.2 1968/69 93.5 87.9 106.4 1969/70 100.0 93.0 107.5 1970/71 100.0 100.0 100.0 1971/72 100.0 109.0 91.7 1972/73 100.0 120.2 83.4 1973/74 105.4 138.2 76.3 1974/75 136.9 173.1 79.1 1975/76 151.6 178.2 85.1 1976/77 159.7 183.3 87.1 1977/78 160.3 296 /b 187.2 85.6 158.1 /b 1978/79 176.14 /d 296 /b 188.7 93.3 156.9 7i 1979/80 204.5 296 219.6 93.1 134.8 7- (1st 9 months) /a Prior to 1969 and since 1979/80 a three-tier pricing system has prevailed. The middle retention price has been used here. For calculating the (average) retention price in a given fiscal year, the number of months in which each price was effective has been used as weight. /b Producer prices applicable to new units and to substantial expansions of cement capacity. /c In terms on non-primary commodities. 7X Includes Rs 11.53 per ton of miscellaneous charges that subsequently have been included in the retention price. Source: CSO, Average of months. 1/ High cost units are granted a relative price which is approximately the same as in 1970/71, whereas medium and low cost units perceive prices that are respectively 7% and 16% lower than in 1970/71. 2/ The ex-factory price of Rs 296 for new capacity has been fixed in current rupees so that recent inflation partly has eroded some of the original incentives. - 55 - 3.38 Short-Run Prospects. The gap between domestic production and demand probably peaked in 1979/80. Although shortages will persist for the next few years, investments now underway are expected to redress this situa- tion, provided input bottlenecks are alleviated and there is higher capacity utilization than in the recent past. Table 3.6 presents demand and produc- tion projections based on estimates prepared by the Ministry of Industry. The demand projections assume a growth rate of 8% per year based on an ini- tial estimate of unrestrained demand of 24.0 million tons for 1978/79. This is a higher rate of growth than that observed in the past and is based on rapid acceleration of planned general investment activity during the Sixth Plan period. The projection of supply assumes a capacity utilization rate of 85% and is based on the likely date of commissioning of new plants. Table 3.6 CEMENT DEMAND AND PRODUCTION: PROJECTIONS (in million tons) Production Demand Production Shortfall 1978/79 24.0 19.4 (actual) 4.6 1979/80 25.9 18.0 (forecast) 7.9 1980/81 28.0 23.0 (target) 5.0 1981/82 30.2 25.0 5.2 1982/83 32.6 29.0 3.6 Source: Ministry of Industry, Department of Indus- trial Development, Report of the Working Group on Cement Industry for 1978-83, September 1979. Annual imports of about 1.7 million tons have compensated for production short- fall in 1978/79 and 1979/80 and will probably be allowed as long as substantial shortage continues. 3.39 The persistence of cement shortage reflects the gestation period for new capacity. Since the 1977 change in retention prices for cement from new plants, there has been a spurt in investment planning, and construction activity is now underway on plants involving about 13 million tons of addi- tional capacity, with further substantial capacity expansion (about 7 million tons) in advanced planning stages. Barring detrimental performance in the supply of coal and electricity inputs, only mild shortages, if any, can be anticipated beyond 1983/84. 3.40 There is little doubt that in the long run India should be at least self-sufficient in cement. Present import prices of cement are almost twice as high as domestic retention prices; that is to say that they are well above the incentive price for new plant which is demonstrably sufficient to stimulate a spurt in private investment activity. Domestic cost of cement plant and equipment are among the lowest in the world, and proven resources of raw mate- rials, primarily limestone and coal, are adequate. The present and recent - 56 - shortages should be viewed as aberrations, largely caused by errors in pric- ing and reinforced by inadequate supply of crucial inputs hampering capacity utilization. D. Electric Power 3.41 In 1979/80, the chronic power deficit which has plagued India throughout the decade of the 1970s showed few signs of resolution. Demand for electricity continues to outstrip supply, with shortages manifested by load shedding, frequency drops and power cuts of varying degree and duration in different parts of the country. All India generation for 1979/80 was only about 3% higher than last year and a shortage of major proportions persists. 3.42 The severity of shortage during 1979 was due to the coincidence of a number of events which separately would have been far more manageable. The backdrop to the shortage is drought. With 40.5% of both installed capacity (1978/79) and power generation coming from hydel, the water situation is important for generation. Due to the drought, reservoirs are low and water flow is inadequate for some run-of-the-river generators. Therefore hydel generation fell marginally in 1979/80 in spite of an increase in hydro capa- city of 8% during 1978/79. The drought aggravated the power shortage by its effect on demand as well as its effect on hydel supply. A larger percentage of power had to be earmarked for the agricultural sector for pumping, and the diesel and fuel oil scarcity, partly caused by the drought, hampered private generation of power and caused increased demand on the grid system. 3.43 The effects of the drought are expected to be very short-run. But even in normal periods the electric power supply continues to be very tight. Actual generation in 1978/79, a generally good year with no drought to distort generation or demand, was very near to target generation. (Each year a target generation is calculated based on rated installed capacity, estimated plant availability, time required to utilize new capacity, and the like. It is meant to be a realistic estimate of power generation capability during the year.) Nevertheless generation was well below the actual demand in that year, with most estimates of the shortage being about 5%. 3.44 Shortage situations are much more severe in some areas than in others. The area of greatest shortage, the Eastern Region, fell further behind in the first half of 1979/80 experiencing the only regional decline in output. In that region even highest priority users, for example the coal fields and the electrified railway, experienced production disruption due to power shortage, and industrial users have suffered heavy power cuts for most of the year. Table 3.7 shows the estimated shortages, by region, in 1978/79 and the growth of generation during the first half of 1979/80 compared to the first half of the previous year. Since even regional transmission sys- tems are only partly developed, local shortages can exceed regional shortages, and the lack of an adequate inter-regional transmission system hampers the management of the shortage at the national level. 3.45 The year to year growth in demand as well as the percentage short- ages are difficult to estimate; given the persistence of the power deficit, unconstrained demand is never observed and planners must speculate on what the base year consumption would have been had more power been available. - 57 - That the shortage is indeed serious can be seen from examples of efforts to cope with it. Table 3.7 ELECTRICITY ENERGY SHORTAGE IN 1978/79 AND GROWTH OF GENERATION IN FIRST SEMESTER, 1979/80 Percentage Percentage Increase in Generation Shortage April-September 1979/80 over Region 1978/79 April-September 1978/79 North 4.7 27.5% West 2.4 2.5% South 5.0 8.1% East 10.7 -2.3% All-India 4.8 6.8% Source: Central Electricity Authority. 3.46 These measures vary from state to state and are also changeable as the situation requires. Partial or full cuts on high tension users of vary- ing duration, restrictions on power use during daily peak demand periods, power cuts for selected industries of 50% or more of their past use, general requests for restraint, and in several states at different times during the year, a staggering of industrial load through the week through forced closure of plant for specified days each week, have all been implemented. In implementing these different measures, most states follow fairly closely the central guidelines for protection of priority users: first, essential consumers ranging from hospitals to agriculture; second, users producing inputs to the power sector; third continuous process industries, and finally other users. These priori- ties cannot, however, guarantee power to priority users during severe short- age. For example, cuts of varying duration have been imposed on agricultural users, who must confine their power use to specific hours each day. In addition, there has been unscheduled load shedding on virtually all users. 3.47 The effects of the power shortage on industry and other consumers is difficult to quantify and in general the priority system described above is not based on precise estimates of the costs of interruption to different users. The ability of industries to deal with restrictions on their power use, for example, by cutting back on all non-essential uses of power, or by staggering shifts, surely varies widely. India will be in an overall power deficit for many years to come. Management of this could be substantially improved if state electricity boards developed better insights into the costs of interruption for different users, and used this information to improve their pattern of priorities. 3.48 Causes of Persistent PEower Shortage--Undercapacity and Problems of Capacity Utilization. From the 1950s through the late 1960s India's installed generating capacity increased at an annual rate of 10.3%, while power generation grew by over 12%, implying greater efficiency in the use of existing capacity. This trend has been reversed since the Fourth Plan - 58 - period. Since then, generation has grown more slowly than installed capacity, (at 5.7% and 6.9%, respectively), implying a worsening in the utilization of capacity. 3.49 The broadest, or most global indicator of the efficiency with which installed capacity is used to generate energy is the kilowatt-hour-produced/ kilowatts-installed-capacity ratio; the energy produced from 1 KW unit of generating capacity. If a 1 KW capacity could be used, day and night, all year long, it would generate 8,760 KWh of energy, there being 8,760 hours in a year. Thus the measure KWh/KW embraces both demand and supply con- straints on the system such as the demand load pattern, plant and supply availability and the system's mix between thermal, hydro and nuclear capacity. In India, this coefficient is very low, 3,871 KWh of energy were generated per KW of installed capacity in 1979. The ratio of KWh to KW has declined in recent years. 3.50 This global indicator must be disaggregated to identify the origins of the efficiency shortcomings. In theory a highly variable demand pattern, requiring capacity to meet high peaks, the maintenance of standby capacity which remains idle most of the time (spinning reserves), or low capacity util- ization due to hydel which has seasonal limitations, could produce a low KWh/ KW figure. In India, however, the basic source of low capacity utilization is the performance of the thermal system: in 1978/79 energy generated per KW of installed capacity was 4,351 KWh for hydro, 4,328 KWh for nuclear and 3,510 KWh for thermal. This works out an average capacity use of thermal plant of 48% for 1978/79, which is well below the capacity use achieved as recently as 1976/77 (55.2%). 3.51 Table 3.8 provides some indicators for the thermal side of the Indian system in recent years. Each indicator has its own implications and pinpoints a different problem area. For example, availability (column three) shows the percentage of plant that can be used and thus accounts for losses due to scheduled maintenance and breakdowns. In each of the last two years, breakdown time-loss (forced outages) has been greater than scheduled main- tenance (planned outages). There is no discernible trend in availability during the last decade, but there are sharp regional differences; the Western region is usually in the neighborhood of 80-82% availability, the Eastern region, 68-70%. 3.52 Partial unavailability is a comprehensive category that summarizes the results of all the operating difficulties that prevent generation from plant that is neither broken down or out of production for maintenance; it includes for example lost generation due to coal shortages or labor unrest, to the extent that the latter are not reflected in poor maintenance and forced outages. Unutilized power is not a measure of productive efficiency, but rather shows the differences between what could have been produced and what was demanded. It reflects that the demand for power is variable over the day or, the seasons of the year, and that capacity to meet peaks inevitably results in unutilized capacity at off peak times. Finally, capacity utili- zation shows the percentage actual use of rated capacity during the year. - 59 - Table 3.8 THERMAL POWER PLANT PERFORMANCE INDICATORS /a (% of capacity) Capacity Planned Forced Partial Unused Utiliza- Year Outage Outage Availability /b Unavailability Power tion /c 1976/77 9.81 13.16 77.03 14.45 7.30 55.28 1977/78 13.40 14.18 72.42 14.29 5.42 52.71 1978/79 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 48.00 /a These are all India averages and as such they mask major differences in regional petformance. /b 100% less planned and forced outages. 7R Availability less partial unavailability and unused power. Source: Department of Power 3.53 The most salient feature of Table 3.8 is the sharp drop in thermal capacity utilization in the past two years; capacity utilization has fallen from a high of 55% in 1976 to 48% this year, the lowest it has been since 1970. This drop reflects the trend in all regions. In general it has been due to a decline in availability of plant which fell to 72% in 1977/78 due to forced and prolonged maintenance outages, rather than to external con- straints (partial unavailability) or low load. Forced outages have been rising steadily since the beginning of the decade. With the increase in the average generator size, and the installation of the 200 and the proposed 500 MW gener- ators, these equipment failures are of much greater consequence. Generator breakdown lay at the root of over half of the breakdowns, boiler trouble caused just over one-third. Planned outages are also high--13%, or almost 50 days a year. The causes of forced outages and prolonged maintenance outages are myriad and the special disadvantages of the Indian thermal system have often been listed. They include low quality coal, a very fast growth of installed capacity whose short run consequence is low availability during break-in periods of newly commissioned plant, and difficulties arising from scarcity of power itself--development of an adequate maintenance schedule is less likely in periods of acute need for operating generators. Various means, such as better training of personnel to deal with systems of vastly increased complex- ity, a better spare parts pool, faster stabilization of plant, better planning for variable coal supply so that boilder damage is avoided, an information pool so that the likelihood and nature of problems with equipment of each manufacturer, and experience in dealing with them, are shared, could all contribute to increased plant availability. Government is generally aware of the need to improve the availability of generating equipment, but they face great difficulty in making widespread improvements in a system of such great diversity, in which each plant manager is basically independently responsible. 3.54 Partial unavailability, the inability to deliver power due to external factors, is also quite high at 14%. This is the equivalent of 52 days of lost generation. Reliable and adequate coal deliveries and a major - 60 - improvement in the coal inventory position of the power industry could prob- ably reduce this loss substantially. As the severity of power shortage is gradually reduced, daily and seasonal cycles in the demand for power will become a more important cause of low capacity utilization. At present, about 11% of the power that could be generated is not generated because of low seasonal or daily demands. 3.55 Looking at the regional variations in this picture, the capacity utilization of the Western region was by far the best, at 58%. Availability was also very high (as high as 85% in Maharashtra). The main problem in this region is partial unavailability due to interruptions in fuel supply and low coal quality. 3.56 Northern region's performance plummetted drastically this year, capacity utilization falling from 51% to 42%. This was due almost entirely to plant being out of service; planned outages for maintenance increased 43% and forced outages due to breakdown increased 31%. The factors summarized as "partial unavailability" such as fuel shortage, strikes, and the like were the lowest of all the regions, and there was almost no unutilized thermal power. The problem state here is Punjab, which has very high rates of both forced and planned outages. Southern region capacity utilization has also fallen, due mostly to unutilized power. 1/ Low load is also a problem in the Eastern region, where unutilized power represents between 5%-10% of total capacity. Scheduled maintenance time and breakdown time in the Eastern region are typically somewhat higher than the all-India average, leading to plant availability which has been the lowest of all regions since 1973/74. This, coupled with the problem of low load and partial unavailability which is very slightly above the all India level, has prevented Eastern region from ever using more than 48% of its capacity, equivalent to 175 out of 365 days each year. Orissa, in this region, shows the worst performance (capacity utiliz- ation averaging 35% in the last five years) with Bihar a close second. 3.57 In sum a conclusion which can hardly be avoided is that there are major failings in the efficiency of thermal sector performance in several of the states. Table 3.9 shows distribution of capacity underutilization by cause, for 1977/78, and shows the regional differences in the causes of low capacity utilization. 3.58 At the all-India level, well over 50% of thermal capacity under- utilization is due to plant outages, either forced or planned--this proportion is much higher in the North, and lower in the West and South for the year examined. On average, 12% of unutilized capacity derives from low load and in general there is not much that can be done about this loss without further integration of the system and further investment in the transmission and dis- tribution side of the system for better load dispatch. 3.59 Thirty percent of unutilized capacity arises from the external, partial unavailability factor, which embraces all the constraints under which 1/ It is important not to confuse "unutilized power" with surplus capacity. Unutilized power simply reflects low demand during off-peak periods, such as late night hours. - 61 - the power sector operates, such as coal shortages, shortages of railway wagons and furnace oil, and labor unrest, all of which inhibit the power sector's ability to perform at capacity, even when plant is available. Table 3.9 CAUSES OF CAPACITY UNDERUTILIZATION IN THERMAL POWER PLANTS, 1977/78 (As a % of Total) Partial Load Outages Unavailability Pattern All Causes All India 58 30 12 100 Northern 74 26 - 100 Western 50 33 17 100 Southern 51 28 21 100 Eastern 58 31 11 100 Source: Department of Power. 3.60 To what extent these constraints are truly limiting factors on plant operations, and to what extent station managers could plan around them with different and adaptive management strategies, is often questioned, since some individual stations have performed quite well in the system. Very much the exception, rather than the rule, some stations for up to five years in a row have averaged 85%-90% overall capacity utilization, with 4%-7% partial unavail- ability and plant availability of 90%-95%. The three private sector plants, operating in the same system, have also had capacity utilization above the all-India average, although their performance does not put them in the cate- gory of extraordinary, since a number (10-15) of public sector plants perform better. To some extent, then, it appears that the external factors affecting partial unavailability have been "managed" by some individual plants so that their output is minimally affected and that the impact of management and planning on performance can go well beyond plant availability alone. This is in contrast to the general implicit assumption that problems of the power sector are technical (i.e., an engineer can solve them). 3.61 With available data, it is difficult to know what the exceptional plants are doing differently to achieve the results they do. One must pre- sume that they face the same market conditions, but deal with these conditions more effectively. With respect to the coal shortage, precautions such as earlier placing of coal orders, or increased inventory to ensure that, even with erratic processing of orders by Coal India Limited, fuel supply is avail- able in the yards, may be responsible, because the coal shortage, is not, strictly speaking, an actual overall shortage to the power industry, which has priority of supplies, even though individual plants may have run short. Nonetheless, the coal situation is undeniably tight. Sales (offtake) of coal to power stations were only slightly higher in 1978/79 than in 1977/78, by about 2%, and stocks with power companies, have fallen sharply for the second year in a row. At the end of 1978/79 coal stocks with power companies were at only 55% of their 1966/67 levels and the decline has apparently continued. Under these circumstances, the margin for error is very small, and slippage difficult to compensate for at short notice. - 62 - 3.62 The situation in railways is equally tight. Although there are 3.5% more railway cars transporting coal from pithead to power station this year than last, their turnaround time has increased, making planning more difficult for station managers. In sum, the tasks facing the thermal plant manager have become more complex, and the room to maneuver reduced. With a concerted administrative effort, it may be possible to generalize the techniques successfully used by individual stations. However, until more is known regarding how these stations do in fact cope, the factors reflected in the partial unavailability measure should continue to be seen as external factors not entirely amenable to management control in the short run. 3.63 Prospects for Power Availability, The Pace of Investment. The Revised Draft Sixth Plan calls for investment to add 17,800 MW to installed generating capacity during the planning period. This would increase installed generating capacity by 69% during the period 1978/79 to 1982/83, a growth of 11% per year. If this rate of investment were achieved, it would relieve at least some of the local shortages; overall demand is probably not growing as fast as 11% per year. 1/ 3.64 In the first year of the Draft Sixth Plan (1978/79) 3,022 MW were added to installed capacity, the largest annual increase ever achieved. This increased overall capacity by more than 12%, and represented nearly a fifth (17%) of the target capacity-increase in the Draft Sixth Plan. An additional 885 MW were also scheduled to be completed but completion slipped into 1979/80. Unfortunately, the shortfalls in project completion were largely in the heavily deficit Eastern region, where just over half of the scheduled capacity increase was achieved. Nevertheless, overall average performance in the first year of the Draft Sixth Plan must be judged to have been very good. Projects scheduled for completion in 1979/80 total 2,813 MW, which, added to the 885 MW slipped projects from 1978/79 would add a further 13% to capacity. It is not yet possible to estimate the actual achievement in 1979/80. 3.65 Increases in installed capacity cannot be directly translated into increases in probable generation. Installed capacity may take up to a year to be fully operational, and larger thermal units (200 MW or more) have been very slow to be stabilized and to begin actual contribution to the commercial power supply. There is now a committee studying start-up problems. BHEL is the dominant supplier of power equipment, and there would appear to be great scope for sharing among users their experience with BHEL equipment, a process which is not yet routine because of the effective operating independence of each producing plant. 3.66 The longer-run problems of the electricity supply sector remain unchanged from those summarized in the Economic Report of last year; i.e., the lack of a national grid and the weakness of regional grids and operating control at the regional level; the heavy systems losses and chronic poor util- ization rates; the problem of unremunerative tariffs which fail to provide finance or to ration output; the perceived imbalances between hydro and thermal 1/ It is very difficult to estimate unconstrained demand growth, but various estimates usually vary from about 9% to just about 11% growth per year. - 63 - investment and between investment in generation and in transmission. A high level committee charged with making recommendations on each of these problems has now substantially completed its work and is expected to report to Government in the near future. It is quite possible that major changes in policy could eventually result from this committee's work, but it is quite unlikely that the high priority attached to rapid expansion of generating capacity will be changed. E. Freight Transportation 3.67 The backbone of India's internal freight transportation system is the railroad, which has the crucial responsibility of moving traffic over long hauls from the few concentrated centers of manufacture and trade, from the localized production centers of commodities such as steel, cement and coal, and from the concentrated foodgrain surplus centers, to a far-flung set of domestic markets. Although road traffic is increasing fairly rapidly it functions mainly as a shorthaul mover; neither the truck fleet nor the highway system is adequate to make trucking a flexible long-haul alternative to railroads. Railway traffic was estimated at above 135 billion ton Km and road traffic at 75 billion ton Km for 1975/76, the last date for which compar- ative estimates were made. Railway traffic grew by about 3.2% per annum and road traffic by 8.2% per annum in the decade up to 1975/76. 3.68 Shortage of Railway Freight Services. Freight loadings on Indian Railways reached a peak of 239 million tons in 1976/77 and have since declined to 223 million tons in 1978/79 and 219 million tons (preliminary estimate) in 1979/80. During the same period the average distance travelled per ton of freight (lead) increased from 656 kilometers to 693 kilometers and the average turnaround time for freight wagons increased from 13.0 days to 14.2 days. The increase in average lead would account for no more than half the increase in turnaround time for wagons; the rest of the increase is due to operating prob- lems of the railways, deteriorating law and order situation and the drop in efficiency of major railway users. The decrease in freight loadings took place during a period of fairly rapid industrial growth and successive record agricultural harvests, with the result that there has been growing shortage of railway services. 3.69 There is no systematic estimate of the economic loss on account of the shortage of railroad services; widespread complaints are reported from industrialists, the thermal power industry, the steel and engineering indus- tries and the coal industry, but there is no general documentation of delays or frustrated traffic. Experience in the coal industry, however, can be taken to illustrate the scarcity. In 1977/78 the average daily loading of coal was 9,717 wagons; this fell to 9,009 per month in 1978/79 and is probably still lower in 1979/80. The railways share of total haulage of coal in terms of gross tonnage, went from 86% in 1977/78 to 79% in 1979/80. Coal haulage by truck has continued to increase in 1979/80 in spite of severe shortages of truck fuel and mounting cost of road transport, indicating a continuing or worsening railway deficiency. The lost share of railways has occurred in a period of virtually unchanged total dispatches of coal. 3.70 Some of the causes of railway service shortage were factors external to the railways. Among these are several changes in the pattern of traffic leading to longer hauls: - 64 - (a) With the cessation of foodgrain imports, the deficit areas are largely supplied from the Northern States: Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. This requires longer hauls than the haul for imported foodgrain from the major ports to the deficit areas. Leads on foodgrain traffic averaged 948 Km in 1976/77 and 1,324 Km in 1979/80. (b) Fertilizer is increasingly being imported into minor Southern ports for use primarily in the North because of congestion in the Northern ports. Leads of fertilizer traffic have increased from 940 Km (1976/77 to 1,077 Km (1979/80). (c) Cement, which used to be marginally exported with low trans- port needs, is now an imported commodity. Leads have increased from 718 Km in 1976/77 to 757 in 1979/80. 3.71 Other external factors include: port congestion in major ports which has caused longer detention of wagons for unloading of ships and forced some traffic to ports with inferior and less efficiency railway equipment; power shedding which has interrupted traffic on electrified lined services, the main coal and steel areas, and work in production and repair units; and frequent delay and difficulty in getting coal of proper quality for steam traction. 3.72 Problems of railway operations proper caused part of the decline in loadings. Chief among these has been a perceptible decline since 1976/ 77 in the efficiency and productivity of railway staff. Labor agitation was frequent, particularly in the Eastern region which is the hub of the system. Some of these agitations were caused by sectoral unions and some by the recog- nized federations. They took the form of strikes and various go-slows such as work-to-rule. The railways also suffered from civil agitation and property and railway staff have been frequent targets of hooliganism. 3.73 Average detention of wagons by major users has increased in the last three years; the steel mills, the Food Corporation of India and the thermal power stations are all taking longer to load and unload wagons than they did three years ago. This exacerbates problems of railway management, but it is not within the direct control of railway managers, although penalty charges for slow loading and unloading would probably have some effect on detention. Railways have recently increased the rates for demurrage charges on freight cars being detained by consignees. 3.74 Finally, some major misestimnates have complicated railway man- agement. Passenger traffic has grown by 38%, twice as fast as predicted, in the 1974-79 period. This has caused unexpected line crowding and a diversion of traction that was not planned for. On the other hand, some important planned traffic has not materialized. Both steel output and ore export are below expectations resulting in some underuse of specialized wagons. 3.75 Short Run Prospects for Rail Services. Improved railway service in the short run, that is prior to major investments in the system, will depend on solving some of the difficulties mentioned above. Improvement in the general labor situation in the railways themselves is an obvious priority, - 65 - and one that is extremely hard to predict. There are fair prospects for improvement in the supply of both coal and electricity. Port decongestion and increases in port efficiency, which could shorten leads and decrease retention time enough to make a considerable improvement in loadings, will probably not occur in the near future. Improvement in operations depends partly upon the ports solving difficult labor problems of their own, but in addition substan- tial expansion of port capacity at Bombay will be required to decongest that port. On balance it appears that short-run improvements in railway operation and the operating environment could perhaps restore the tonnage lost during the last three or four years, in spite of increased leads. This will leave substantial shortages of railway services until major additions are made in the railways' capital. 3.76 Priorities for Railway Investment. Planning for railway investment is a continous process, and continuation of major physical investments will improve supply somewhat during the next three or four years. But policy deci- sions are still pending on several types of investment and the beginning of a substantially increased package of major investments appears to be called for, including the following: (a) Improvements in the operating control and maintenance system. These would consist of an expanded railroad data transmission network and closing the gaps in the microwave system, plus installing computers capable of rapid processing of locational and use information for wagons and locomotives. This would be a powerful new set of management tools, and would permit so-called realtime operations; dispatching could be done and changed on the basis of the actual status of equipment, as opposed to the scheduled status, which is often misleading. Whatever other investments are undertaken, this improvement in management tools should be given high priority to increase overall system efficiency and utilization of motive power and rolling stock. (b) Electrification. Electrification is in progress on portions of the railway; the Delhi-Mathura segment and Vadodara-Ratlam and Anand-Godhra segment on the Bombay-Delhi line; a segment from Madras to Vijayawada, and a segment from Waltair to Kirondul. These investments will permit some improvements in capacity in the medium run. Rising prices of petroleum, the inherent inefficiency of steam engines, and the ever increasing density of traffic on the trunk system argue strongly for the electri- fication of the complete trunk system--roughly speaking, the Delhi, Calcutta, Bombay triangle--over the next decade. Long range plans have been prepared for completing this electrifica- tion, including parallel electrified tracking of most of the Bombay-Delhi line and of portions of the Calcutta-Bombay and Calcutta-Delhi lines. -At present the Delhi-Calcutta line is electrified, the Bombay-Calcutta link is two-thirds electrified and the Bombay-Delhi line is electrified for about one-quarter of its distance. Consideration should be given to stepping up the pace of electrification which has fallen below the pace which was achieved in the Third Five Year Plan. Development of - 66 - additional power generation for the primary use of the railroad, whether this is captive power or is produced under an electrical authority, will have to be timed to electrification investment. (c) Electric locomotive manufacture and remanufacture. The present generation of electric locomotives are acknowledged by Indian Railways to be out of date and various plans are being discussed for updating the basic design and for changing the control sys- tem on the present generation of locomotives. This could involve the building of new locomotive works to build locomotives of new design with the present facilities being devoted to making repairs and modernizing the presently technologically obsolete locomotives. The choice and source of new electric-locomotive technology is still under discussion. What seems indisputable is that heavy investment is required in electric traction, with a substantially modernized design, and that more rapid development of the electric locomotive fleet should be started soon. I/ (d) Coach Manufacturing and Maintenance. By about 1982 the Rail- ways will need to increase their annual coach procurement by about 400 to 500 per year. (Present capacity is 1,500 coaches per year.) The workshop system needs to be expanded to include one or more parts remanufacturing facilities for locomotives and coaches in order to support the maintenance system which is currently being modernized. (e) Terminals. Long detention of rolling stock is caused at terminals and break of gauge points due to slow, labor inten- sive unloading. Extensive modernization of terminals will be required to speed the unloading process. Although such modernization can be piecemeal and is inherently a long run continuing process, an early decision is needed on which major terminals to modernize first. 3.77 The Pace of Investment in Railroads. A first phase of the realtime operating control systems covering the dense-traffic portion of the railway routes, would cost approximately US$100 million, and could be completed in three to four years. Route electrification investment, exclusive of power generating costs, totalling US$150 million is included in the Draft Sixth Plan. This would provide for the completion of 948 route kilometers of work commenced prior to Draft Sixth Plan, commencement and completion of 198 route kilometers and commencement of investments on additional 903 route kilometers which would be completed in 1983 or 1984 with continued investments at the 1/ In terms of fuel efficiency (ton miles per BTU) electric locomotives are slightly superior to Diesel engines and twice as efficient as steam. With every increase in the price and scarcity of oil (imported at the margin) and every improvement in coal production domestically, the case for electric traction improves. - 67 - annual rate planned for the Sixth Plan period. Very substantial portions of the main traffic triangle--Delhi, Calcutta, Bombay--would not yet be started in 1985: 437 route Km on the first Delhi-Bombay route, 658 route Km on the Calcutta-Bombay route; 680 route Km on the second Delhi-Bombay route, and parallel tracking near Calcutta on the Calcutta-Delhi route. Additional costs to complete one of the Delhi-Bombay links and the Calcutta-Bombay link would be about US$165 million. About US$25 million of this additional investment could be phased into the last two years of the Sixth Plan period. More generally, the present level of investment in electrification of US$25 million per year could economically be increased to about US$55 million per year from about 1982. The Draft Sixth Plan provides for the addition of 300 electric locomotives. This number appears to be about adequate for the traffic and stage of development of track electrification; the unsolved questions pertain to the changeoyer to more modern locomotive types and the modernization of the present locomotive stock. 3.78 Road Haulage. The "National Highway System" consists of 29,000 Km of major roads, virtually all of them surfaced roads. Traffic on most of this network is quite heavy, and traffic volumes are expected to increase rapidly as shown in the table below, based on a broad traffic study: Table 3.10 TRAFFIC DENSITY ON NATIONAL HIGHWAYS Actual 1975 Projected 1988 Traffic Density (Km with (Km with this (in passenger car units per day) this density) density) Less than 2,500 car units per day 6,000 3,000 2,500 - 7,000 car units per day 19,000 18,000 7,000 - 10,000 car units per day 2,500 4,000 More than 10,000 car units per day 1,500 4,000 Source: Ministry of Shipping and Transport. 3.79 The major weakness in the National Highway system is a general weak- ness of roads, bridges, and culverts relative to the weight bearing capacity required for modern truck transport. Strength in national highways is gener- ally adequate for the present truck fleet, which consists almost entirely of trucks with rigid frames in the 3 to 7.5 ton size-class, though considerable road damage is done even by these vehicles, which are routinely overloaded. The highest priority for national highway strengthening and upgrading is in highways to serve main railway terminals, because roads will continue to serve mainly as a complement to railways in freight movements. To cater for the heavier, more efficient vehicles needed for modern truck transport over the whole system would require investments in the National Highway estimated at US$2,250 million. Allocations of US$570 million are included in the Draft Sixth Plan for the first phase of the National Highways program. At this rate of investment, a 15 to 20 year period would be required before the National Highways system would cope with heavy traffic throughout the system. - 68 - 3.80 Outside the National Highway system, which is the responsibility of the Central Government, all highway construction and maintenance are State functions, some of them delegated to local bodies and rural communities. There are 98,000 Km of State highways, nearly all of them surfaced. Some of them share a high priority with National Highways for upgrading to permit heavy traffic. District highways comprise 515,000 Km of road, about half of it surfaced, and block and village roads include 310,000 Km of which about one-fourth are surfaced. 3.81 The major lack in the State road systems is in the lower categories of roads: other district and village roads that link villages with the road network. Of the 576,000 villages in India, about 29% are connected by all- weather roads, 16% by fair weather roads and 55% are not connected at all to the road network. The Draft Sixth Plan envisioned providing all-weather road connections to all villages above 1,500 population and half of the uncon- nected villages in the 1,000-1,500 person class, by 1982/83. An allocation of Rs 10,950 million has been earmarked for this purpose during the five year period 1978-83. It was anticipated that all villages with population over 1,000 would be connected by 1988. A more recent study by the National Trans- port Policy Committee of the Planning Commission shows that by the year 2000 there will still be a very large number of villages in India with no near road access, unless investment is sharply accelerated. 3.82 India's truck fleet consists almost exclusively of small trucks in the 3 to 7.5 ton class. Overloading to 25% above indicated weight is offi- cially sanctioned but much greater overloading is common. The fleet is small, approximately 350,000 trucks, and its growth over the last decade has been slow, at 3% per year. Nearly one truck in four is over 15 years old. Repair facilities and spare parts are scarce. In the current general transport shortage situation, most trucks are fully employed, and backhauls are rela- tively easy to find. Trucks are currently heavily engaged in transport of such bulk commodities as coal, fertilizer and cement, because of the shortage of railway capacity. The general picture that emerges is of an over-extended fleet, with inadequate investment to renew it and modernize it. The auto- mative industry is very heavily concentrated in medium sized trucks, using designs which are about 15-20 years old. There is scant capacity in small trucks (pick-ups and jeeps) or in large trucks. Truck transport is primarily a private sector activity, but the government could and should aim at the modernization and balancing of the truck fleet, by taking steps to simplify and rationalize licensing of vehicles such as creating more national operating licenses and, at the state level, issuing operating licenses as simply as pos- sible so that the licensing system does not serve as a barrier to entry. 1/ Investment in capacity to produce a broader range of vehicles should also be encouraged and a systematic hire purchase system for trucks should be insti- tuted because credit to small operators for purchase of vehicles appears to be inadequate at present. 1/ Recent steps in this direction have been an increase in national licenses, reciprocal agreements between adjacent states for interstate licenses, and expansion of the scope of operation of state truck licenses to the entire states for which they are issued. - 69 - 3.83 Port Services. Port traffic since 1970/71 has increased at an average 4% annually. The major ports generally account for about 90% of total cargo handled, with Bombay alone amounting to 24% of total cargo handled. 3.84 The main products handled at the major ports during 1977/78 were petroleum products (36%), ores (35%), fertilizer (5%), coal (2%) and food- grains (1%). All other products comprise 23% of port tonnage. Export and import of major commodities thrugh the major ports in 1982/83 is forecast at about 100 million tons, mainly consisting of bulk commodities like petroleum products, iron ore, coal and fertilizer. Traffic handled by minor ports has been more or less constant at around 7 to 8 million tons annually, and is not likely to increase in view of diversion of iron ore traffic to major ports. Table 3.11 PORT CARGO TRAFFIC (million tons) Ports 1970/71 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 Kandla 1.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.8 Bombay 14.4 18.0 16.9 17.3 16.7 Mormugao 11.0 14.1 12.8 13.5 11.3 New Mangalore - 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 Coachin 4.8 4.8 4.3 4.8 5.2 New Tuticorin - 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 Madras 6.9 8.0 8.3 7.8 8.1 Vishakapatnam 8.7 7.2 8.5 8.7 9.7 Paradip 2.2 2.6 3.3 3.3 2.7 Calcutta/Haldia 6.0 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.5 Subtotal 55.6 65.9 64.7 67.5 66.0 Other Ports 6.8 8.0 8.1 7.1 n.a. Total 62.4 73.9 73.8 74.6 n.a. Source: Ministry of Shipping and Transport. 3.85 Ships are currently facing considerable berthing delays at the major ports. These have increased rapidly in recent years, and by mid-August 1979 were as shown in Table 3.12 for two selected ship categories at some major ports (in days). These berthing delays are not generally a symptom of general undercapacity at ports. Except for Bombay Port, which is operating at satura- tion levels, the port capacity of India is generally adequate. "These berth- ing delays apart from being related to poor productivity, are also due to inadequate capacity in a number of major ports. Further, to some extent are also as a result of imports of large quantities of bulk commodity like Cement, Coking Coal, Fertilizers etc., for which in most cases no special facilities/ berths are available, straining the capacities of ports. In addition there - 70 - has been a spurt in general cargo traffic as well. Inadequacy of infra- structural facilities for movement out of the ports also contributed their share in delaying discharge of vessels and causing congestion." 3.85 Since March 1977, Bombay Port has continuously faced illegal work stoppages, threats of strikes and demonstrations by workers, although there has been only one general strike of all port workers during this period. These have often been caused by competition among rival units aiming to control labor within the port, but two major substantive contentions have contributed to the poor labor performance: the disputes over schemes for incentive and piece work payments, and the disputes over mechanization of fertilizer hand- ling. The former has led to a series of strikes and go-slows. The latter disputes have caused the mechanized fertilizer handling equipment to remain idle, though it has been in place for over a year, during which fertilizer ship delays have been running at 30 to 40 days. The comprehensive agreement between the port authorities and port labor that was reached in February 1979 may eventually provide the base for more orderly labor-management relations. Table 3.12 BERTHING DELAYS AT INDIA'S PORTS, AUGUST 1979 Ship Category Ports General Cargo Fertilizer Kandla 12-16 15-10 Bombay 15 30-40 Mormugao 2- 3 0 Coachin 2- 3 8-10 Madras 25 30 Vishakapatnam 5 40-50 Paradip 7- 8 15-20 Calcutta/Haldia 15 50-60 Source: Ministry of Shipping and Transport. 3.87 More generally, Bombay Port has suffered a serious decline in labor productivity, as shown in Table 3.13 below. Productivity reached its peak at 15.13 tons per gang-hour in February 1976. The output in 1977 and 1978 shows a marked decline not only when compared with 1975 and 1976 but also when com- pared with 1974. Such large drops in labor productivity lead to delays in ship handling and clearance and consequently to increase in ship waiting time. The problem becomes more acute in a port like Bombay where, even under normal circumstances, berth occupancy is above 80% and the port already is function- ing at saturation levels. A solution to the problem causing low labor produc- tivity is urgently required if Bombay Port is to become reasonably congestion- free in the short run. Labor productivity has also decreased at Cochin, Madras and Calcutta ports. The drop in traffic throughput in Calcutta has led to a surplus in manpowr with the port and the Dock Labor Board which again leads to higher gang charges per ton handled. - 71 - Table 3.13 BOMBAY PORT: OUTPUT PER GANG HOUR (in tons) Non-Monsoon Period Monsoon Period October-May June-September Whole Year Maxi- Mini- Ave- Maxi- Mini- Ave- Maxi- Mini- Ave- Year mum mum rage mum mum rage mum mum rage 1974 13.88 10.39 12.07 9.89 7.49 8.80 13.38 7.49 10.89 1975 13.25 11.60 12.31 11.91 8.55 9.39 13.25 8.55 11.21 1976 15.13 10.53 12.71 10.34 8.08 9.24 15.13 8.03 11.43 1977 12.34 8.02 10.10 8.62 5.75 7.07 12.34 5.75 8.96 1978 9.70 7.21 8.98 9.71 4.09 5.29 9.71 4.09 7.67 Source: Ministry of Shipping and Transport. 3.88 Although the supporting infrastructure to most ports is satisfactory for normal level operations, there are serious bottlenecks in the system at Bombay and Haldia/Calcutta. The road and railway facilities serving the port of Bombay are operating at saturation levels, and very little additional traffic can be moved through them. There is no room for expansion of roads and rails at the present site of the port. Container handling facilities are also extremely cramped at Bombay, commanding insufficient space for stacking. The Bombay Port Trust is planning to divert some existing dock areas and depots for container handling and to purchase container handling equipment. Even if this conversion is done very efficiently, however, it could provide at most two or three years of relief from the present congestion in the container traffic. 3.89 Because of the channel problems at Calcutta, the complementary dock systems at Haldia, 90 miles downstream, have been created as a fully mechan- ized facility to handle bulk commodities and containers. But the present transport between Calcutta and Haldia is extremely time-consuming either by road or by river or by a combination of both. The extension of the national highway to Haldia should be completed without delay, and container transport by truck should be allowed. (The Haldia-Calcutta road is a good example of the type of national highway that should be built to handle heavy trucks that ply in support of railways and, as in this case, ports.) The movement of cargo from Haldia to Calcutta and beyond on the rivers Ganges and Brahmaputra should be activated. River transport, if it is not encumbered by heavy over- heads at the terminals, is the cheapest mode of transport and full utiliza- tion of this potential should be made. 3.90 There are glaring anomalies in the present structure of port user charges. All of the newer ports, which are generally much less congested, have wharfage charges higher than those of the Port of Bombay. Demurrage rates, based on wharfage charges, are also lower in Bombay. The apparent result is that some traffic is diverted from uncongested ports closer to its destination to the congested Port of Bombay. Since Bombay's wharfage and - 72 - demurrage charges are well below the direct cost of supplying port services (to say nothing of congestion costs) a strong case exists for upward adjust- ments in Bombay rates. Charges at Calcutta Port, a relatively uncongested port which has been losing traffic, are the highest in the system. Port authorities there assert that some of the traffic diversion is caused by the relatively low charges at other ports. Although the case for adjustment of Calcutta user charges is not obvious--Calcutta being a high cost port--it might well be true that a general reassessment of charges at all ports, based on economic principles, would make Calcutta relatively more attractive. It is virtually certain that a rationalized charges system would also increase the attractiveness of the smaller ports that are uncongested. 3.91 Policy and Investment Priorities for Ports. The poor prospects for short-run relief of Port congestion problems are clearly hinged to the prob- lem of labor unrest, labor shortage at some ports, declining labor productiv- ity and lack of spare capacity to provide flexibility in handling goods. Although solution of labor problems is an obvious priority acknowledged by poor managements, substantial short-run improvement is not considered prob- able. Diversion of traffic from more congested to underutilized ports could alleviate congestion somewhat in the short run. Diversion could be encouraged by a system of cost-based prices, including allowance for congestion costs, for each of the ports in the system. 3.92 Major investment priorities are (a) the expansion of Bombay Port by the development of a complementary port site at Nhava Sheva, (b) the development of linking infrastructure between Calcutta and Haldia, (c) an increase in container handling facilities and creation of special facilities for handling bulk cargo at selected locations. 3.93 Saturation of traffic on the access rail/road routes to the port rules out any possibility of major additions to Bombay Port's capacity at its present site. The natural deep waters available at the Nhava Sheva island, located across the Bay of Bombay about 12 km east of the existing port pro- vide an excellent site for construction of deepwater berths which could accom- modate ships of up to 16.5 meter draught. The large area immediately behind the proposed site at Nhava Sheva would be available for development of back- up facilities and internal transport necessary for speedy clearance of port traffic. Stop gap improvements in container handling capacity at the present port site will do little more than prevent growing congestion in the con- tainer traffic for a short period, and will not relieve the growing problem of break-bulk traffic congestion. 3.94 Linkage infrastructure between Haldia and Calcutta was discussed above (para 3.88). In addition to the investment requirement, institutional arrangements to facilitate use of inland waterways potential should be given high priority. 3.95 Containerization investments contemplated by the GOI include short- term container port facilities at Madras, Cochin and Bombay. In addition a major container facility is also planned at Nhava-Sheva (Bombay). Overall planning of containerized traffic is not yet well begun though investments have started on part of the package of necessary facilities. For example, container distribution and consolidation centers at Bangalore, Ahmedabad and - 73 - Delhi will soon be completed; the railways have developed prototype wagons for handling ISO containers and 150 of these are on order; and India produces ISO containers that are compatible with the railway equipment. But to date the separate containerization investments are largely independent. An interminis- terial committee including the Ministry of Shipping and Transport and the Indian Railways, among others, has been formed to undertake coordinated plan- ning of container investments. The priorities for planning include standard- ization of containers, the timing of investments in inland terminals, ports and railroads, and the addition of planning for investment in roads and trucks. 3.96 Conclusions on Transport Availability and Transport Investment. The present situation of congestion and scarcity in the goods transport industry, and the prospect for only modest improvements in the short run, indicate that some speeding up in the rate of investment is a high priority for the Indian economy. In general the required investments have been planned, and what appears to be required is acceleration of the process of physical investment, along paths that are generally agreed. Uncertainty remains on many of the second-order questions. For example, given the need to accelerate railway electrification, what is the best source of new technology in electric trac- tion. On a few questions there has been very little planning or discussion; for example there is no clear plan for upgrading the aged and outmoded truck fleet or for systematically supplementing it by developing smaller and larger vehicles rapidly. And finally, the difference in timing of investment, regardless of agreement on needs, is itself a major issue. For example, annual spending on electrification of railways could well be doubled over current planned levels by as early as 1981/82, major construction of Nhava Sheva could probably be advanced by several years, the upgrading of national highways in selected railway-supporting corridors could be usefully greatly accelerated, and the rate of planned annual spending on village roads, which is only half the annual amount required to connect all villages by the year 2000, might well be judged too small. F. Petroleum 3.97 Crude oil production in 1979/80 will be just over 12 million tons and is currently projected to be just over 18 million tons in 1982/83; 9 million tons from Bombay High fields, 3.4 million from onshore Gujarat fields, 2.8 million tons from the eastern fields of the Oil and Natural Gas Commission (ONGC) and 2.8 million tons from the eastern fields of Oil India Limited (OIL). 3.97 A higher rate of crude oil extraction could be realized. It is esti- mated that Bombay High and the nearby Bassein fields could sustain an annual extraction of up to 13 million tons and the ONGC and the Government of India has under various stages of consideration the investments to produce this amount by 1983/84. Newly discovered offshore fields (the R-structures) could be brought into production by 1983/84 by the planned method of drilling and pumping into tankers. They are thought capable of producing at least one million tons per year, and perhaps two or three times this amount. The Gujarat fields could produce slightly more than the planned 3.4 million tons per annum, but this is uneconomic because facilities to make use of the special qualities of this crude are limited. Easte^rn fields of ONGC could produce more than their current level; just how much is unknown, as the assessment has not been - 74 - done, due to the constraint on refining any additional crude in the Eastern Region. It could be 5.0 million tons or so and the eastern fields of OIL could possibly produce more than the 2.8 million tons planned, perhaps as much as 3.6 million tons. Producing more than 5.6 million tons in the two eastern fields (ONGC's and OIL's) combined would require more refinery capa- city than currently exist or is planned. The following table presents ori- ginal Draft Sixth Plan output goals, estimates of conceivable output and currently planned output. Table 3.14 PROJECTION OF CRUDE PETROLEUM PRODUCTION 1982/83 THROUGH 1984/85 Conceivable Plan Target Maximum Output Currently Planned Output Crude Production 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1983/84 1984/85 ONGC Offshore 9 12 12 12 12 North Bassein - 1 1 - /a - /a Ratnagiri (R-Structures) - 1 1 - - ONGC Onshore Western Region 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 Eastern Region (ONGC) 2.8 2.8 5.0 2.8 2.8 OIL (Eastern Region) 2.8 2.8 3.6 2.8 2.8 AOC (Eastern Region) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Total 18.05 23.05 /b 26.05 /b 21.05 21.05 /a The Northern Bassein field was initially and tentatively thought to be capable of producing up to 3 million tons per annum. I.t is now thought the field is capable of less, 1 million tons per annum, and that the optional rate of extraction is even less, 0.6 million tons per year. The MOP regards the two fields (ONGC and North Bassein) together capable of 12 MT per year. /b It should be stressed these are not firm estimates of what could be pro- duced from known fields as a result of investments ongoing or currently planned. These output levels, to the extent they exceed the currently planned levels, would require new approaches to both exploitation of known fields and refining and distributing the petroleum products. Source: Ministry of Petroleum and World Bank estimates. 3.99 The difference between maximum output for 1984/85 and the planned output in that year, assuming the eastern fields could sustain production at the higher levels, is caused by the lack of refinery capacity in the Eastern - 75 - Region. This lack of capacity, combined with transportation shortage, sets the limit to output from Eastern field in the short run. The maximum capa- city shown in the table implies immediate investment to remove this bottle- neck. There are also some vestiges of a government policy to hold down the rate of domestic oil extraction (see, for example, the conservation arguments in the Draft Sixth Plan). In the recent past, when exchange reserves were ample and growing, the accepted wisdom was that India should conserve her own crude oil and use surplus reserves to pay for imported oil. For the much tighter foreign exchange situation expected in the 1980s, this argument is less attractive, because foreign exchange will have much higher priority uses, at the margin, than those that prevailed in the recent past. It is probably correct to say that the policy of government has shifted away from conserva- tion and toward a policy of making maximum use of domestic reserves, and that over the medium 'term output will thus depend on the rate of oil discovery and the rate of investment in refinery and transport capacity. 3.100 India's refinery capacity is now around 30 million tons of crude oil per year. This will increase to 36 million tons in 1981/82 with the comple- tion of a new refinery at Mathura. A proposal to increase the Vishakapatnam refinery from 1.5 to 4.5 million tons has been recommended by the Public Investment Board, as has another proposal to double refinery capacity at Madras from 2.8 to 5.6 million tons. If both of the projects were quickly approved they could be completed by 1983/84. Another 1.2 million tons of refining capacity will be added by expansion projects underway at Cochin and Bharat Petroleum refineries. Maintaining rough self-sufficiency thereafter will require the addition of one 6-7 million ton refinery every two years, and will therefore require speeding up the investigation, planning and con- struction of new capacity. (A working group has been formed to investigate constructing a new refinery.) India's refineries are becoming more sophis- ticated with each addition to capacity, and they are able to use a wider range of crude oil types and tailor output more closely to local demand for products. In particular, secondary processing facilities are being expanded or introduced to transform heavier products such as fuel oil into diesel oil and LPG, which figure prominently in India's demand pattern. 3.101 Domestic Demand and the Need for Imports. Table 3.15 shows the domestic production and imports for the years 1975/76 to 1977/78, and estimates for 1978/79 and 1979/80. Demand for petroleum products grew very little in 1974/75 and 1975/76. During 1976/77 and 1977/78 demand growth was about 7% per year and for 1978/79, about 10%. In 1979/80 actual consumption will increase by an estimated 8.6%, but this is not an accurate reflection of demand growth because consumption has been held down by supply shortages. Diesel consumption rose by 12% in 1978/79 and supply will increase around 16% in 1979/80 without satisfying demand. 3.102 Three main causes for the explosive growth in diesel consumption are: first, an increased demand for road hauling because of the shortage of railway services and the consequent need to move many bulk items by road; second, an increase in demand for electricity from private diesel generating sets, due to continued widespread power shortage from the main grids, and third higher than normal demand for tubewell pumping because of the drought. Fuel oil use has - 76 - also grown rapidly, by 12% in 1978/79 and 15% in 1979/80, as fuel oil was substituted for coal by many industrial users who could not get adequate supplies of coal. 3.103 In spite of efforts to insure uninterrupted diesel supply, there were major shortages of diesel fuel, primarily in the North and Northwest-- the areas on the end of the longest supply line. These shortages were in- voluntary, from a policy point of view, and were minor considering the gen- eral shortage of transportation, the disrupted international market and the unprecedented growth in demand. Demand growth is likely to slow down in 1980/ 81 because of increases in petroleum product prices that have been introduced in 1979. Longer-term demand management will continue to depend on price increases but it will be greatly facilitated by improvements in transportation, electricity supply and the coal industry, as these gradually overcome their present operating problems. Table 3.15 PETROLEUM AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS, PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS, 1975/76-1979/80 (million tons) Estimated 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/70 Crude Production 8.4 8.9 10.8 11.6 12.0 Crude Imports 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.7 16.4 Refinery Throughput 22.3 23.0 24.9 26.0 28.0 Products Production 20.8 21.4 23.2 24.2 26.0 Product Imports 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.9 4.5 Product Availability 23.0 24.0 26.1 28.1 30.5 Product Consumption 22.4 24.1 25.5 28.3 30.5 /a Excludes refinery boiler fuel and losses. Sources: Ministry of Petroleum and World Bank Estimates. 3.104 With the steady increase in domestic crude oil production, imports of crude increased only marginally from a level of 13.6 million tons in 1975/ 76 to 14.7 million tons in 1978/79, when they supplied about half of product demand. 1/ Product imports, which comprised 14% of total product consumption in 1978/79 have grown more rapidly, by 80% over the three year period. Refinery capacity is used to its practical limits, so there is no short-run choice between product and crude imports. In 1979/80 rapid growth in both crude imports (11.6%) and in product imports (16.3%) was needed to meet a spurt in product demands, and slower expansion in domestic crude production (7.5%) caused it to lose part of its share of the market. 1/ Roughly a ton of crude yields 0.93 tons of petroleum products net of refinery fuel, bunkers and losses. Thus the 14.66 million tons of crude imported in 1978/79 yield about 13.6 million tons of products, 49% of total domestic consumption. - 77 - 3.105 The Prospectsfor Petroleum Supply and Demand. India has several options which will determine the level of imports in the medium-term future, but, assuming reasonable availability in international markets, they will have small effect on domestic availability. Policy appears clear on this point; domestic prices will probably be continually adjusted as international prices increase, but every attempt will be made to supply the market in the quantities demanded. 3.106 Tables 3.16 and 3.17 show the range of import patterns that are con- sidered most likely in the medium-term future. In Projection A it is assumed that product demand will grow at 8% per year after 1980/81, that crude produc- tion will equal maximum sustainable outputs in 1983 and 1984 (see Table 3.14 and para 3.98) and that refinery capacity will be increased by 1984/85 by six million tons beyond the refinery investment at Mathura which is now nearing completion. Projection A can be considered a lower bound to the range of reasonable import projections. Projection B assumes a 10% per year increase in product demand, crude output as currently planned, and refinery capacity increases of only 2.5 million tons beyond the Mathura investment. The demand for imported crude and products shown in Projection B is near the upper limit of reasonable import projections. Table 3.16 PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS, 1980/81-1984/85 PROJECTION A (million tons) 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 Crude Production 14.5 17.5 18.0 23.0 26.0 Crude Imports 16.0 16.0 17.0 15.3 15.7 Refinery Throughput 30.5 33.5 35.0 38.3 41.7 Refinery Capacity 33.4 36.0 36.0 38.5 42.0 Products Production /a 28.4 31.2 32.6 35.6 38.8 Products Import 5.0 5.0 6.2 6.3 6.5 Products Consumption 33.4 36.0 38.8 41.9 45.3 /a Projected at 93% of refinery throughput. Sources: World Bank Estimates. - 78 - Table 3.17 PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS 1980/81-1984/85 PROJECTION B (million tons) 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 Crude Production 14.5 17.5 18.0 21.0 21.0 Crude Imports 16.0 16.0 17.0 17.4 17.4 Refinery Throughput 30.5 33.5 35.0 38.4 38.4 Refinery Capacity 33.4 36.0 36.0 38.5 38.5 Products Production /a 28.4 31.2 32.6 35.7 35.7 Products Import 5.0 5.5 7.8 8.8 12.8 Products Consumption 33.4 36.7 40.4 44.5 48.5 /a Projected at 93% of refinery throughput. Sources: World Bank Estimates. 3.107 Projections of the foreign exchange costs of petroleum imports can be misleading because of the uncertainty concerning international prices. Table 3.18 below presents the implied import bill for the two projections of imports given in Tables 3.16 and 3.17 on the assumption that international petroleum prices will increase (percentage growth in average prices over the previous year) at the rate of 32% in 1980/81, 11.9% in 1981/82, 11% in 1982/83, and 9.8% in 1983/84 and 1984/85. Aside from the staggering import bill under either projection, the difference between the two projections, US$3.5 billion in 1984/85, is worthy of attention. It is hard to conceive of any change in export or import performance in other sectors which would have an impact approaching this order of magnitude. Decisions regarding refining and the rate of extraction clearly have pride of place among the medium-term decisions facing the Indian economic planners. Note that although Table 3.17 can reason- ably be interpreted as presenting upper and lower bounds to imports, Table 3.18 has no such pretensions about the import bill, except at some given assumed price. Thus the import bill could be considerably higher than given in Projection B or lower than Projection A depending on what actually happens to price. Of course, the higher the price the greater the difference between the two projections. - 79 - Table 3.18 PROJECTIONS OF PETROLEUM IMPORT COSTS 1980/81-1984/85 (in US$ million) Projections A 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 Products Import Value 1,552 1,737 2,391 2,667 3,021 Crude Import Value 3,851 4,310 5,083 5,023 5,660 Total POL Import Bill 5,403 6,047 7,474 7,690 8,681 Projection B Products Import Value 1,552 1,911 3,008 3,726 5,951 Crude Import Value 3,851 4,310 5,083 5,712 6,273 Total POL Bill 5,403 6,221 8,091 9,438 12,224 Price Series for Pro- jections A and B (average annual unit value) Products ($ per ton) 310.4 347.4 385.6 423.4 464.9 Crude ($ per ton) 240.7 269.4 299.0 328.3 360.5 Source: World Bank estimates. Import bills based on the quantities in Projections A and B, Tables 3.16 and 3.17, and price assumptions given in the text above. 3.108 Long-Term Policy Issues -- Pricing and Exploration. Pricing of petroleum products for domestic use should theoretically cover the marginal cost of production; that is, it should cover the costs of products refined domestically from imported crude, if India is going to be self-sufficient in refining, or it should cover the higher cost of imported refined products if India is going to continue to import finished products. Prices below this cost would amount to unjustified incentives to consume petroleum products. Prices above the level of cost of import-based products can probably be justi- fied on the grounds of foreign exchange savings, incentives to competing fuels, and rationing in the short-run. India has historically set domestic prices that are higher than imported product prices, and in spite of the rapid international price increase, they remained higher than international prices as of April 1979; the major products' prices are compared to international prices in Table 3.19. - 80 - Table 3.19 RATIO OF IMPORT COST TO DOMESTIC MARKET PRICE 1976 AND 1979 Domestic Ex-Storage Price as Percentage of Equivalent Product Import Cost, c.i.f. Bombay January 21, 1976 April 1, 1979 Motor Spirit 342 327 Kerosene 123 108 High Speed Diesel 137 116 Fuel Oil 146 126 Source: Ministry of Petroleum 3.109 Although they still exceed cost of imports, domestic product prices have increased at a much slower rate, by 289% since 1972/73 compared to an 818% increase in prices of imported products. It is important that product prices should continue to be adjusted to maintain at least equality with cost of imports. 3.110 The issue of pricing for domestic production of crude oil is compara- tively minor, because practically all domestic production of crude is done by the public sector, and administrative decision and budgeting, rather than profitability or corporate cash flow determine investment, extraction, and exploration priorities. 3.111 The priority of investment in oil exploration and exploitation is obvious. The prospective area for oil and gas, both offshore and onshore in India remain underexplored relative to many other countries. Although some level of onshore exploration has been going on for many years, offshore exploration only began in 1974. Onshore, many areas remain to be explored and even many previously explored areas could be profitably re-explored with now-available more sophisticated exploration technology. Onshore resources of oil and gas have remained virtually stagnant for the last ten years with oil reserves falling a little as production from reserves exceed their enhance- ment. The discovery of the offshore Bombay High oil field in 1975 more than doubled India's total reserves. Since then fairly intensive exploration in the Bombay High areas has resulted in the discovery of the small North Bassein oil and gas field, the large South Bassein free gas field and most recently, the several small R-structures to the south and east of Bombay High. Several other small structures of doubtful commercial value have been discovered in the Bombay High area. Exploration of several other coastal areas -- Kutch, Cauvery Delta, Bay of Bengal and some others -- both by ONGC and by three private foreign firms have yet to find anything significant. 3.112 The Government of India intends to expand exploratory activity more than doubling the rate of drilling during the years 1978/79 through 1982/83 over the previous five year. By 1980/81 all of India's offshore areas is scheduled to be geophysically studied in preparation to delineating areas for - 81 - more intensive seismic work and exploratory drilling. Although intensive exploration will continue in the Bombay area, ONGC will branch out to Andaman Islands, off Mangalore, off Kerala, in the Cauvery Delta and some other areas. OIL is just beginning to explore in the Mahanadi Delta in shallow coastal areas. It is possible that some offshore areas will be given to one or more private foreign firms on either a contract or profit sharing basis, although no negotiations are currently ongoing. 3.113 Finally, rapid investment to use natural gas more effectively is a high priority. At present only Gujarat gas is used efficiently. Eastern field gas finds only low priority uses because of its transport cost to market areas, and Bombay High gas has yet to be fully developed. The use of natural gas is the subject of a policy paper now being considered by Government. - 82 - Chapter 4 RESOURCES AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS A. Introduction 4.1 The aggregate resource surplus that the Indian economy enoyed since 1975 is rapidly coming to an end. To the extent this implied rising investments to match savings, it has been a development in the desired direction. But unfortunately the major factor which precipitated this out- come was a deterioration in India's terms of trade. The change has been exacerbated by the drought and the infrastructural shortages that India experienced during 1979/80. As described in the previous chapter, easing the infrastructural constraints is largely a matter of additional investment to expand capacity. Although the investment plans of the Government are yet to be fully formulated, it is clear the financial requirements of any plan to meet the investment needs are great. Thus, resource supply has once again become the critical constraint on India's development. On the domestic front, the difficulties will be more apparent in public sector finances, although private sector investments may also face resource problems. On the external front the trade gap and the payments deficit will assume critical dimensions if the present trends are not adjusted. 4.2 Gross domestic saving which, as a ratio of GDP, had moved up at a slow pace during the 15 years before 1972/73 (rising from around 15% to around 17%) has risen very steeply since then reaching 23%-24% of the GDP in recent years. The resource buoyancy was also reflected in the public finances. As shown in Graph 4.1 tax revenues and non-tax revenues rose sharply from about 16% of the GDP in 1974/75 to about 19% in 1978/79. However, the increase in public revenues was accompanied by a parallel rise in public current expend- itures so that the improvement in the public sector saving ratio was temporary and, eroded by the growing subsidies, has been declining in the last four years. In spite of this, the momentum of plan expenditures was maintained at a high rate thanks to the growing volume of financial transfers to the public sector, mainly in the form of domestic and external borrowing. 4.3 The overall view conveyed by the fiscal developments in 1979/80, like in other areas of the economy, is one of stagnation and even deteriora- tion if adjusted for inflation. Revenues from corporation tax are expected to fall below the original budget estimates and will show no increase over the level of 1978/79. Revenues from Union excise duties have also fallen short of budget estimates, partly as a result of withdrawal of excise duty on coal and reduction of duties on petroleum products. It was mainly thanks to a jump in customs duty collections -- corresponding to the sharp rise in import bill -- that the Central tax revenue could rise above last year's level, but not if adjusted for inflation. Adverse economic conditions also eroded the profitability of public sector undertakings and reduced their capacity to meet their repayment and interest obligations to Government. On the other hand inflation and the drought, together with increasing sub- sidies, have swelled current expenditures in the public sector. Though GRAPH 4.1 °le SAVING AND FISCAL RATIOS AS A% OF GDP 24 _ 2 gross domestic savings 23 - 22 - 21 - 20 - 19 - - - -~ government current receipts 18 - / ' 'v' / government current expenditures 17 - 16 - - 1/ i government tax receipts 14 - 13 - 12 - plan expenditure 11- 10 - public gross capital formation 9 - / / -,.- public gross fixed capital formation 5- gross public saving 4- 3- 70.71 71.72 72.73 73.74 74.75 75.76 76.77 77.78 78.79 - 84 - data are not yet available on total plan spending, the shortfalls in Central budget expenditures point to a disappointing performance in plan implementa- tion as well. 4.4 At this writing, the new Government had not yet formulated its policies regarding the budget and the plan for 1980/81. An interim budget was presented in March pending the preparation of the full budget later in the year. However, developments in the economy leave no doubt that next year's budget will be a tight one. Unless additional internal and external resources can be secured, plan outlay, which has probably fallen in real terms in 1979/80 -- after rising rapidly from 1974/75 to 1978/79 -- may not recover its buoyancy. 4.5 As happened in early 1970s tax proceeds are likely to adjust to inflation with a lag so that tax revenue in 1980/81 can be expected to recover the ground it lost in 1979/80. But given the already high tax ratio, the scope for additional tax effort in the coming years may be limited. On the other hand, anti-inflationary policies may restrict the extent of borrowing from the Reserve Bank or even from the commercial banks. Therefore resource mobilization efforts must concentrate on efforts that will raise the non-tax revenues, and on measures that will control the increase on non- plan expenditures. The former objective can be achieved by improving the profitability of the public sector undertakings which have declined in recent years, while the latter goal requires a policy of reducing the subsidies which have reached high levels. To achieve both objectives the levels of Government controlled prices need continued review and occasional adjustment. B. Balance of Payments 4.6 To put the present critical phase of India's balance of payments in perspective a short review of the recent past may be in order. (See Graph 4.2). The three years after 1972/73 were dominated by India's adjustment to two exogenous events: a sharp rise in import prices, especially following the 1973 oil crisis, and increased foodgrain import requirements resulting from the crop failure of 1972/73 and 1974/75. While the volume of exports did rise on average over these three years by 7.5% per annum (see Table 4.1), export's contribution to import capacity fell dramatically due to the eroding impact of the terms of trade, which declined by more than 40%. The small increase in import capability which was achieved during this period was due to an improvement in the inflow of invisible receipts and capital. The improve- ment in invisible receipts resulted primarily from increased remittances from Indians working overseas (especially following the development boom in the Middle East) and earnings from foreign tourists in India. In response to the deteriorating balance of payments situation, aid commitments by the Consortium were increased and additional commitments were provided by new sources, in- cluding the OPEC countries, the EEC and the United Nations Emergency Operation. This, together with a movement away from project aid and towards faster dis- bursing program and food aid permitted a rapid increase in disbursements from the nadir which had been reached in 1972/73. India also supplemented its foreign exchange receipts by drawings from the IMF, including use of the newly- created special oil facilities. - 85 - GRAPH 4.2 11- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 80 - (in US$ million) 993 9 986 8- 7 242 1395 6 1792 522 6311 6950 5 Ln ~~~~~~~~1243 UJ4 - 750t W l - :: :. .- _755753 cr ~~~~~810 D 3 593 4672 0 2 ~~~~~~~4174 3239 1 ~~2558 2303 2199 537 692 0 694 226 312 157 8 -2 IM P94 - 79 1 2076 1534 337 158 2 2423 379333 3 5665 4 6449 5928 5 IMF ~~~~~ ~~~7194 8450 ~~~ ~IMPORTS 8 ~~EXPORTS 9- ml| INVISIBLES - 10 ADDTORES 11- -4{WqF--]F- -A HH F - -F--1F- N 4 tnfDl Ul OD~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - 86 - Table 4.1 PERCENTAGE RATES OF GROWTH OF EXPORTS, IMPORTS AND TERMS OF TRADE (Based on indices with 1968/69 = 100) Volume Unit Value Terms of Exports Imports Exports Imports Trade 1972/73-1975/76 7.5 -0.6 14.3 38.3 -17.4 1975/76-1978/79 3.0 12.5 10.4 -0.6 11.3 1972/73-1978/79 6.2 5.3 10.0 13.3 -2.9 Source: Statistical Appendix Tables 3.4 and 3.5. Calculated from official Indices, adjusted to revise provisional data. Data for 1978/79 are World Bank estimates. 4.7 Although India's overall import volumes did not fall significantly from 1972/73 to 1975/76, higher foodgrain imports meant other imports actually fell by more than 30% over these three years. Given India's long-standing strategy emphasizing import substitution and strict restrictions on non- essential imports, this meant a serious reduction in vital industrial inputs and capital goods. While these import cuts made it possible to maintain the nominal level of external reserves, the reserve coverage of imports fell to the unacceptably low level of three months during most of 1974/75 and 1975/76, due once again to the eroding impact of higher import prices. 4.8 Starting in 1975/76 and continuing through 1978/79 a dramatic and largely unexpected improvement in the balance of payments became apparent. The value of exports increased, mainly because of a rise in export prices. The terms of trade partially recovered some of the ground lost and India's import volume grew by 12.5% per annum over this period. The inflow of foreign exchange from invisibles also gathered further momentum over this period, with higher receipts from Indians working abroad and tourists being augmented by earnings on India's rapidly rising external reserves. The aid community responded to this improved outlook by cutting back the special food and program assistance provided during the previous three years and giving greater emphasis to project aid within new commitments. This inevitably led to a fall in disburse- ments, while the unutilized aid pipeline continued to rise. India also took advantage of this eased balance of payments position to repay all of its out- standing obligations to the IMF. 4.9 At the same time as India's import capacity grew, the requirements of foodgrain imports fell to negligible levels, following the succession of four good crop years from 1975/76. The Government took advantage of this faborable situation and progressively liberalized the import policy: import procedures were simplified, the range and volume of import items allowed was - 87 - extended, and tariffs were selectively reduced. As a direct result of these changes, the volume of non-foodgrain imports rose by over 85% from 1975/76 to 1978/79, and surpassed the previous peak attained in 1973/74 by 40%. In large part, the liberalization in import policy and increase in imports was limited to raw materials and intermediate goods; most consumer items (with the major exception of edible oils) remained banned and capital good imports were permitted only on a selective basis. 4.10 Despite the growth in non-foodgrain imports, the available foreign exchange was still adequate to permit India to build up its level of external reserves to a more comfortable 10 months of imports by the end of 1978/79. Although the sharp increase in external reserves contributed directly to the expansion of the money supply, India was able to achieve a remarkable degree of price stability during this period. In part this was due to the greater scope to satisfy excess domestic demand by imports (notably edible oils and cotton) and the more moderate increases in world prices, especially compared to the previous three-year period through 1975/76. The more liberal import policy increased availability of raw materials and intermediate goods which no doubt helped to improve capacity utilization and contribute to the somewhat better performance of the industrial sector over these three years. The Government of India has said it will try to maintain the import liberal- ization achieved to date, but has noted its regret that in its view this liberalization has not met reciprocal easing of protectionist policies facing Indian goods in foreign markets. 4.11 Even before 1978/79 was ended, some signs of a further shift in the balance of payments had appeared: (i) the increase in the import bill during the year was largely due to rising prices rather than volume growth, and with unfavorable market conditions for some of India's major exports, the terms of trade had deteriorated;l/ (ii) invisible receipts seemed to level off at a high level rather than sustain the rapid growth of the previous year; and (iii) the increase in external reserves slowed down. All of these negative trends have further strengthened during the past year (1979/80). 1/ Discussion of recent trade movements is hampered by reference to volume and unit value indices using 1968/69 as a base. The 1968/69 weights are now seriously out of date. Using a more recent year as a base gives a somewhat different picture, ,particularly for export volume growth. From this point onward, the discussion refers to volume and unit value move- ments based on the World Bank estimates made using 1978/79 prices as contained in the table below. (Table on the next page is part of this footnote.) - 88 - 4.12 The balance of payments trends during 1979/80 were once again dominated by an unexpected large increase in petroleum prices, which caused most of the US$2 billion rise in the import bill for the year. With a rise in petroleum consumption due in part to the drought and refinery constraints on the production of those products in high demand (especially diesel and kerosene), the volume of petroleum imports, and in particular of the higher- priced products, was also up somewhat in 1979/80. As a result, the petroleum import bill is estimated to have been almost double that in 1978/79, and accounted for more than 80% of the total increase in the import bill. In addition to petroleum, prices of most other major import items also seem to have risen quite sharply during 1979/80 and this has been one of the primary factors contributing to the resurgence of domestic inflation in recent months. Volume growth of imports is estimated at about 2% and was less dynamic than had been projected in last year's Economic Report. This probably reflects two basic factors: the lack of any further significant liberalization in the import policy, and possibly some greater caution in its implementation, following the mounting uncertainties in the balance of payments outlook; and some restraint on effective import demand due to the generally poor performance of the domestic economy. The rising prices themselves may be curtailing use of some imported goods. 4.13 The volume of exports stagnated or perhaps fell in 1979/80. After the large increase in 1976/77, there has been no growth of export volume during the following three years as a whole. Prices for some of India's major export items recovered somewthat during 1979/80 yielding an estimated 12% growth in export earnings in U.S. dollars. However, the rise in export prices was not sufficient to prevent a deterioration in the terms of trade for the second year in a row. Invisible receipts seem to have risen somewhat in 1979/80. The current account turned into deficit for the first time since 1975/76. Aid disbursements rose only modestly above their low level of the previous two years. Net aid disbursement financed 12% of merchandise imports (Continuation of 1/ on p. 87) EXPORT AND IMPORT VOLUME AND UNIT VALUE GROWTH IN 1968/69 PRICES AND IN 1978/79 PRICES Volume Unit Value Terms of Exports Imports Exports Imports Trade In 1968/69 Prices % Growth 1977/78 - 1978/79 1.5 9.7 8.5 7.1 2.3 1978/79-1979/80 5.0 7.8 7.6 18.6 -9.9 In 1978/79 Prices % Growth 1977/78-1978/79 -1.5 4.5 11.8 12.4 -0.5 1978/79-1979/80 -0.4 1.7 14.1 19.8 -4.8 Sources: Derived from Appendix Tables 3.4 and 3.5 and from World Bank estimates. - 89 - in 1978/79 and only 11% in 1979/80, less than half the share during the period 1972/73-1975/76. The level of reserves rose by around US$250 million (about one-sixth the increase in 1978/79). With the increase in the import bill, the import coverage of external reserves fell for the first time since 1974/75. 4.14 Our projections of India's balance of payments through 1982/83 are summarized in Table 4.2. The export projections reflect an assumption of 6.5% growth per annum in volume terms and export prices rising by the assumed rate of international inflation. 1/ Import projections are based on individual, supply-balance projections for foodgrain, POL, fertilizer, edible oil and iron and steel imports (see Annex to this chapter). Other imports are assumed to grow by the same rate as total output over the period 1980/81 through 1982/83 -- by 8% in 1980/81 and thereafter by 5% per annum in real terms. Net aid disbursements are projected to continue their modest rise of the past year. Net invisible receipts are projected to rise slightly in 1980/81 and maintain that level through 1982/83. These movements are a combination of a steady increase in net receipts of non-factor services (mainly tourist receipts), a rise and then fall in net investment income (due to a fall in the average reserve level and a retreat of short-term interest rates) and a steady level of current transfers, (mainly workers' remittances). Under these assumptions reserves would be drawn down starting in 1980/81 and would fall to dangerously low levels in 1982/83. C. Trade and Aid 4.15 That reserves are shown at such low levels by 1982/83 points out the illustrative nature of these projections. Clearly the Government would try to avoid such a fall in reserves and other variables in this table -- trade and aid flows -- would have to adjust. Given the long-term nature of the changes in world markets, the most urgent need is to promote the adjust- ment of Indian economy to the changing parameters of world trade and price relatives. A program aiming at such a structural adjustment should focus on three imperatives. Firstly, the need to expand exports has become even more crucial than before as a result of rising import costs. Exports which covered more than 95% of the non-foodgrain import bill in 1975/76 (after the oil price hike in 1973/74) can at present only pay for 71% of it. India will have to increase exports in a world environment that is in some respects less receptive to exports than in the past. Nevertheless, in many markets (through not in all), India is a realtively small supplier and can increase exports at a faster rate than overall demand by increasing India's relatively small market share. India was fortunate to receive growing amount of remittances from its nationals working abroad, which eased the pressure on its current account balance for a few years. These remittances are unlikely to grow at the same rate as in the past five years and may stagnate, as projected. Thus, the importance of export expansion for averting a major balance of payments crisis after 1981 can hardly be exaggerated. 1/ The assumed rates are 10.1% in 1980/81, 8.75% in 1981/82 and 7.75% in 1982/83. Table 4.2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (US$ millions) Actuals Estimates Proiected 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 6/77 1977/78 C s e i m a t s 81/82 _1982 Merchandise Exports (f.o.b) 2,558 3,239 4,174 4,672 5,753 6,315 6,976 7,800 9,130 10,575 12,150 Merchandise Imports (c.i.f) - -2,423 -3,793 -5,665 -6,449 -5,928 -7,188 -8,488 -l1,000 -13,800 -15,925 -18,650 of which: Foodgrains ( -91) (-597) (-951) (-1,537) (-958) (-121) (-144) - - - - Fertilizers (-190) (-291) (-737) ( -710) (-312) (-441) (-597) ( -770) ( -850) (-1,075) (-1,400) POL (-265) (-719) (-1,451) (-1,417) (-1,581) (-1,811) (-2,043) (-4,050) (-5,400) (-6,200) (-7,400) Edible Oils ( -20) ( -73) ( -15) ( -16) (-112) (-829) (-649) (-800) (-700) (-850) (-1,000) Iron & Steel c/ (-293) (-320) (-531) (-360) (-246) (-307) (-572) (-500) (-550) (-600) ( -650) Others S/ (-1,564) (-1,793) (-1,980) (-2,409) (-2,719) (-3,679) (-4,513) (-4,880) (-5,800) (-6,600) (-7,500) Contingency (-500) (-600) (-700) Trade Balance 135 -554 -1.491 -1.777 -175 -873 -1,512 -3,200 -4,670 -5,3 -6,500 Net Invisible Receipts b/ - 131 - 40 274 565 892 1,680 2,012 2,450 2,600 2,600 2,600 Current Account Balance 4 -594 -1.217 -1.212 717 807 500 -750 -2,/70 -2,750 -3,900 Net Aid Disbursements 593 810 1,243 1,792 1,395 983 993 1,183 1,520 1,775 2,030 of which: Gross Aid Disbursements (1,017) (1,323) (1,758) (2,323) (1,955) (1,628) (1,695) (1,870) (2,250) (2,550) (2,850) Principal Repayments ( -424) ( -513) ( -515) ( -531) ( -560) ( -645) ( -702) (- 687) ( -730) ( -775) ( -820) Use of IMP Credit (net) - 75 522 242 -337 -330 -158 - - - - Errors and Omissions -563 -186 -586 -28 -200 616 199 183 -300 -300 -300 Use of Reserves (- - increase) - 34 -105 38 -794 -1,575 -2,076 -1,534 -250 850 1,275 -2,170 Reserve Level (end of year) 1,311 1,416 1,378 2,172 3,747 5,823 7,357 7,607 6,757 5,482 3,312 Months of Imports Covered d/ (5.1) (3.6) (2.7) (4.2) (6.9) (8.9) (9.2) (7.4) 5.5 3.8 2f0 a/ Data from 1975/76 include imports of merchant ships (not recorded in the official import statistics) and therefore are not strictly comparable with data for earlier years. b/ Net invisible receipts for 1978/79 have been estimated as a residual, after allowance for a small 'errors and omissions" item derived from past trends, estimated exchange rate adjustments and exceptional miscellaneous transactions. c/ After 1978/79, the category "iron and steel" includes canalized iron and steel imports only. Non-canalized iron and steel imports are contained in the "Others" category. d/ Calculated by dividing the end of year reserve level by average of that and next year's level of imports. April 24, 1980 - 91 - 4.16 Secondly, the restructuring must include a program of import sub- stitution. The world market changes which increased the cost of major imports by India have also improved India's comparative advantage in some of these production categories. India now has an obvious cost advantage in producing steel and fertilizers which accounted for 12% of the total import bill in 1979/80 and the payments for which are expected to increase in coming years. Faster growth of domestic capacity and production of steel and fertilizers will reduce the import bill while being consistent with the rational alloca- tion of India's resources. 4.17 Edible oil imports have become a large item in the total imports -- about US$800 million in 1979/80. Here is another opportunity for import sub- stitution which will also have rural development linkages. Various measures, including support prices, have been attempted in recent years to improve the cultivation and the processing of oilseeds and some partial successes have been recorded. However, this remains an area where further initiatives are called for in the coming years. 4.18 Finally, and perhaps most crucially, the energy policy of the country must be adjusted taking into consideration the world production and price trends and the country's resource endowments. Plans for more extensive oil exploration and faster exploitation of known crude oil and natural gas reserves are already underway. These efforts must be supplemented by appropriate energy pricing policies not only to induce economies on the total energy consumption, but also to enable substitution of coal and hydro based energy for petroleum products. The objective cannot be to actually reduce consumption levels of petroleum pro- ducts, which are quite low compared to those in other countries, but to guide growth of energy demand toward the relatively more abundant energy sources. The success of this substitution, in turn, depends on adequate coal production and power generation which are, at present insufficient even to meet the present demand. 4.19 A tripodel approach as summarized above -- export expansion, import substitution (i.e. in steel, fertilizer and edible oils) and energy rationaliza- tion -- can produce a significant improvement in the medium-term balance of payments prospect. For example by 1982/83 if exports could be 10% higher and fertilizer, POL, edible oils and iron-steel imports could be reduced 10% below the projected level, then the current account deficit would fall to less than half its projected level, the reserves would rise slightly compared to the previous year and they would be equivalent to about 4 months imports. 4.20 There is a compelling need for increased net aid disbursements in future. Responding to the improved balance of payments situation after 1975/76, aid donors taken as a whole shifted the composition of their aid program from faster to slower disbursing aid. This slowed net disbursements considerably. At the sime time, commitments were almost maintained in real terms, with a fall in commitments of some bilateral donors offsetting an increase in World Bank Group commitments. As a result the aid pipeline has grown large. A shift in the composition of donors' aid program back to faster disbursing aid in com- bination with some increase in aid commitments in real terms could increase net aid disbursements over their projected levels. The following discussion deals with these issues in more detail. - 92 - 4.21 Aid to India during the 1970s underwent considerable changes in volume, composition and quality. In real terms both gross and net disburse- ments generally declined over the decade and by the end were about half their level at the beginning. However, aid did increase somewhat in the middle of the decade in response to the severe deterioration in India's terms of trade following the oil price rise in 1973/74. The proportion of India's total aid provided by the Consortium fell during the mid-1970s, as OPEC aid materialized, but then rose again towards the end, as OPEC aid fell off. Aid from Eastern Europe fell steadily throughout the decade. The grant element in aid rose steadily over the period, due to the rapid rise in the grant element of aid from some bilateral Consortium members. 4.22 It is clear from the preceding section on the balance of payments that net aid transfer should again rise if India is to sustain the import levels needed to support a growth rate on the order of 5% per annum. The first need is for a faster disbursement out of existing aid programs. India can step up the utilization of aid somewhat by speeding up the implementation of aid-funded projects. Several measures have been taken in the past year and these measures have speeded up disbursements on some projects. More important, however, is a shift in the composition of aid toward faster disbursing types in aid donors' programs. A further need is for a rise in total commitments in real terms. 4.23 The trends in aid flows from 1972/73 to 1978/79 are summarized in Table 4.3. On the basis of developments in the balance of payments, it is useful to divide these seven years into three basic periods: the first 1972/73 and 1973/74, was a period when the balance of payments remained relatively strong; during the second period, 1974/75 to 1976/77, the balance of payments was adversely affected by crop failures and a sharp deterioration in the terms of trade; while the third period, 1977/78 and 1978/79, saw the return of a more stable and manageable situation. To avoid bunching problems which can arise with annual data, these three basic periods will be used when appropriate in the subsequent discussion of aid trends. 4.24 In current prices, commitments have risen on trend by 14% per annum over the past six years, although they have not yet returned to the peak (partly caused by bunching) reached in 1975/76. The response of the aid community to changes in India's balance of payments is, however, more clearly illustrated in the trend of disbursements, which rose from an annual average of US$1,113 million in the first period, of US$1,928 million in the middle period, then fell back to US$1,615 million in the last period. The inverted-U trend is even more marked in the net aid transfer, which in absolute terms and as a percentage of three major determinants of aid requirements (the import bill, gross domestic investment and GDP), was substantially higher in the middle period. Deflating the aid flows for changes in import prices, the inverted-U trend is still discernible for the net aid transfer; but on this deflated basis, commitments show no significant trend while disbursements steadily decline throughout the six-year period. - 93 - Table 4.3 AID COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS (amounts in US$ million) At Current Prices 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 Commitments 937 1872 2138 3184 1519 2615 2862 Disbursements 957 1268 1689 2194 1901 1591 1639 Debt Payments 550 587 665 679 717 832 928 of which: Principal Re- payments (424) (513) (515) (531) (560) (645) (701) Interest (126) ( 74) (150) (148) (157) (187) (226) Net Aid Disbursements 533 755 1174 1663 1341 946 937 Net Aid Transfer 407 681 1024 1515 1184 759 711 At 1972/73 Prices /a Commitments 937 1347 942 1274 630 1127 1092 Disbursements 957 912 744 878 789 686 626 Debt Payments 550 422 293 272 298 359 354 of which: Principal Re- payments (424) (369) (227) (213) (233) (278) (268) Interest (126) ( 53) ( 66) ( 59) ( 65) ( 81) ( 86) Net Aid Disbursements 533 543 517 665 556 408 358 Net Aid Transfer 407 490 451 606 491 327 272 Net Aid Transfer (in current prices) as % of: Import Bill/b 16.8 18.0 18.1 24.9 20.9 10.8 8.6 Gross Domestic Investment 3.9 4.7 5.9 8.7 6.1 3.5 2.5 GDP at Market Prices 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.6 Note: This table excludes suppliers credits. /a Deflating by the index of import prices. /b Excluding imports of merchant ships. Sources: 1. Basic Tables on Gross Aid to India, 1972/73 to 1978/79 2. World Bank's Debtor Reporting System 3. DGCIS, Monthly Statistics of the Foreign Trade of India 4. CSO, National Accounts Statistics. GRAPH 4.3 AID COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS 3-0- others opec food east europe debt relief bank group non project bilateral consortium project 25 0- z 0 -4 CZ (0 1-0 -J~~~~~~~~~~~~-7 0.5- 0-0-- 1 23 1 23 1 23 1 23 PERIOD commitments disbursements commitments disbursements BYMAJOR DONOR GROUPS BY TYPES OF AID NOTE: PERIOD 1 :1972173 AND 1973 /74 2: 1974/75 TO 197 6 /77 3.~ 1977/ 78 AND 1978 /79 - 95 - 4.25 The shares of major donor groups in commitments and disbursements are shown in Graph 4.3 and Table 4.4. Partly in response to the deteriorating balance of payments situation of the middle period, larger commitments were made by the Bank Group and to a lesser extent the Consortium countries. Additional commitments were also forthcoming from new sources, including OPEC countries, the EEC and the United Nations Emergency Operation. The only aid group which did not respond was the East European block, whose commitments and disbursements fell over the whole period. The result of these trends was that the share of OPEC and others in both commitments and disbursements rose substantially in the middle period, while those of the East European block and Consortium countries fell; the Bank Group's share remained basically unchanged; with the subsequent easing of the balance of pay- ments constraint, the aid momentum was relaxed somewhat, with commitments from Consortium countries falling gradually and from OPEC and others more rapidly after 1975/76. Only the Bank Group has sustained a rising trend of commitments through- out this period, and accounted for more than one-half of total commitments in 1977/78 and 1978/79. The increasing importance of the Bank Group is yet to be fully reflected in disbursements. However, as the Bank Group accounted for over one-half of the aid pipeline at the end of 1978/79 and intends to steadily increase new commitments over the medium term, it can be expected to become increasingly important in the overall picture of aid to India. Table 4.4 AID COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS Shares of Major Donor Groups (%) Commitments Disbursements 1972/73 and 1974/75 to 1977/78 and 1972/73 and 1974/75 to 1977/78 and 1973/74 1976/77 1978/79 1973/74 1976/77 1978/79 Bilateral Consortium 49 44 36 65 48 54 Bank Group 32 31 53 26 27 31 East Europe 13 n.a. 4 7 4 2 OPEC 5 21 5 1 16 11 Others 1 3 1 n.a. 4 2 Total (excluding IMF) /a 100 100 100 100 100 100 /a Use of IMF facilities greatly expanded during the middle period 1974/75 to 1976/77, when increase in the use of IMF credit constituted 13% additional aid disbursements compared to 6% additional in 1972/73 and 1973/74 and a fall in the use of IMF credit during 1977/78 and 1978/79. Source: World Bank estimates. - 96 - 4.26 The composition of commitments and disbursements, by types of aid, is shown in Graph 4.3 and Table 4.5. Perhaps the most striking feature of this table is that, despite the deteriorating balance of payments situation in the middle period, the share of debt relief and food in total commitments has been steadily declining since 1972/73. Debt relief, which is provided solely by Consortium countries, remained roughly constant in absolute terms from 1972/73 to 1976/77, but then fell to insignificant levels in the subsequent two years. Food commitments by Consortium countries were stepped up substantially in the middle period and this was supplemented by special food assistance from Australia, the EEC and the United Nations Emergency Operation. However, food commitments in the first period had been inflated by the large one-time Soviet wheat loan in 1973/74, and the subsequent food assistance from other countries only helped to sustain this level. In response to the need for fast-disbursing aid during the years 1974/75 to 1976/77, both the Consortium countries and the Bank Group reduced the proportion of project aid within their commitments. However, the overall share of project aid in commitments remained at 42%, due to the large commitment by Iran in 1975/76 for the Kudremukh Iron Ore Project. In the years after 1976/77, with the reduced imperative for fast-disbursing aid and the increasing importance of the Bank Group, the share of project aid in total commitments has risen to 74%. The composition of disbursements naturally enough follows that for commitments, after allowing for the varying utilization rates associated with different types of aid. Table 4.5 AID COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS Composition by Types of Aid (%) Commitments Disbursements 1972/73 and 1974/75 to 1977/78 and 1972/73 and 1974/75 to 1977/78 and 1973/74 1976/77 1978/79 1973/74 1976/77 1978/79 Project 42 42 74 37 32 52 Non-Project 29 37 19 35 42 34 Debt Relief 13 8 1 15 9 2 Food 16 13 6 13 17 11 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: World Bank estimates. - 97 - 4.27 The rise in disbursements up to 1975/76 clearly follows the trend in commitments, and if anything, the ratio of disbursements to the total aid available (opening pipeline plus new commitments) seems to have improved over this period. However, over the subsequent three years, while it is true that commitments have fallen to some extent, the aid pipeline has risen from US$3.9 billion at the end of 1975/76 to US$6 billion at the end of 1978/79. The factors accounting for the decline in disbursements after 1975/76 vary between the major donor groups. While it is difficult to evaluate the rela- tive importance of these factors, the following general conclusions emerge from an analysis of trends in disbursement patterns of different varieties of aid. 4.28 While bilateral Consortium commitments did fall gradually after 1975/76, disbursements fell more sharply, resulting in a steady increase in the aid pipe- line and total aid availability. The major factor contributing to this decline in disbursements appears to be the changing composition of commitments, away from debt relief and food and towards project aid. This was in itself a legitimate adjustment to India's aid requirements at a time when the balance of payments situation was favorable, and should lead to a substantial pick up in disbursements once the initial gestation periods of recently-signed project agreements are passed. For project aid, there has been no significant slowdown in utilization rates for assistance from Consortium countries. However, within project aid, a number of donors have recently given greater priority to rural development and social development, sectors which traditionally have relatively low utilization rates. Although the amounts involved are as yet too small to have any significant impact on overall disbursement performance, this could become a more important factor in coming years, if the present trend continues. 4.29 For the Bank Group, while commitments have continued to rise rapidly, disbursements were US$610 million in 1976/77 then fell back to around US$500 million in both 1977/78 and 1978/79 and rose significantly in 1979/80. The major factor accounting for the decline through 1978/79 was the absence of any new Industrial Imports credits (the only fast-disbursing program aid provided by the Bank Group) after 1975/76. Excluding these credits, disbursements-of project aid from the Bank Group have shown a steady increase from 1972/73 to 1978/79. However, there has still been some decline in the last year or two in the ratio of disbursements to the total aid available. While to some extent this reflects the sharp increase in commitments during recent years, it also highlights a longer-term change in the sectoral composition of project aid away from transport, communications and industry towards agriculture, irrigation and power. Given the historical utilization rates for these sectors, this has inevitably led to a slowdown in disbursement performance. There also seems to have been some slowdown in utilization rates within the agriculture and trans- port sectors, although this simply reflect further subsectoral changes in the composition of commitments not revealed by our aggregate data. The most recent evidence shows a pick-up in disbursements from irrigation and agricultural credit projects. 4.30 For the other major aid donors, the trend in disbursements has been largely determined by the trend in commitments. The East European block's commitments and disbursements fell steadily. Commitments by OPEC countries, Australia, the EEC, and the United Nations Emergency Operation have all - 98 - declined with the easing of the balance of payments constraint since 1976/77, and disbursements have fallen correspondingly. For all of these donors, there has also been a marked shift away from the initial food and commodity support towards project aid, although this really reflects the reduction of commitments of the former rather than any significant increase in project aid. 4.31 The grant element of total commitments 1/ has fluctuated between 60% and 80% over the past seven years, depending on the relative importance of the various donor groups. Only the Consortium countries have sustained a general improvement in the grant element of their commitments, from an average of 70% in the first period, to 76% in the middle period and 88% in the last period. This reflects the gradual softening of loan terms, the shift from loans to grants (more than one-half of all bilateral Consortium commitments over the past four years have been in the form of grants), and to a lesser extent, the declining importance of some of the harder aid sources. The grant element of Bank Group commitments has depended upon the mix of IBRD (average grant element of 13%), third window (41%) and IDA (83%) credits. Commitments from the East European block and OPEC countries have had a relatively low grant element of between 30% and 50% and, with the commitment of the Soviet wheat loan in 1973/74 and subsequent increase in OPEC aid, held down the average grant element of total commitments from 1973/74 to 1975/76.2/ All of the recent assistance from Australia, the EEC and the United Nations Emergency Operation has been in the form of grants. 4.32 Gross disbursements during 1979/80 were 10% higher than in 1978/79, even though the opening pipeline grew by 26%. There is both scope and need to raise the proportion of the opening pipeline and the proportion of current commitments that is disbursed each year. One need is for India to speed up the utilization of the aid that is available, particularly in its use of non-project aid. However, non-project aid still disburses much faster than project aid. Consequently the change that would make the biggest difference in net aid transfer is a shift by donors back toward a higher proportion of commitments in the form of non-project aid. The basic objective of speeding gross disbursements could also be furthered by a variety of efforts to shift project committments toward types of project aid that disburse relatively fast. More lending to financial intermediaries or apex institutions in various sectors would tend to improve the pace of disbursements. Increasing the proportion of the project financed by aid or increasing the proportion of local cost financing would ease budget constraints and, consequently, would tend to speed project implementation and disbursements. Over the longer run, increasing commitments in real terms is also required to raise gross disburse- ments. 1/ As used in this paper, the term grant element refers simply to the commit- ment amount less the discounted present value of the future flow of debt payments (using a discount rate of 10%), expressed as a percentage of the commitment amount. No further adjustments have been made to take into account disbursement lags or the hidden costs of tied aid. 2/ The gradual improvement in the grant element over the past two years has been sufficient to raise the grant equivalent level of commitments in 1978/79 above the previous peak of 1975/76, even after deflating for the (marginal) rise in import prices over this period. - 99 - 4.33 The gross aid disbursements discussed in the section on balance of payments were estimated assuming the current project: non-project aid proportions. They also assume a continuation of the recent experience of aid commitments remaining constant in real terms at the 1978/79 level of US$3 billion. If India is to manage the balance of payments as projected, increased foreign resources will be required. For the most part these additional re- sources will have to come from increased exports. But increased aid disburse- ments could and should supply part of the need. Table 4.6 indicates how disbursements would respond to the two changes -- first, increasing the proportion of non-project aid in the total to a level close to those that prevailed in the mid-1970s (one-third non-project aid) and secondly, raising aid commitments in real terms by 3%. Although the US$300-500 million per annum difference these changes would make would not eliminate the foreign exchange constraint discussed in the balance of payments section, it would ease the constraint and, along with export promotion, import substitution, and increased energy efficiency, make the payments deficit more manageable. Table 4.6 GROSS AID DISBURSEMENTS UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS US$ Billion 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Standard Projections -- 1978/79 rates 2.2 2.5 2.8 1975 proportion of non-project aid 2.4 2.8 3.1 1975 proportion with a 3% per annum rise in real commitment 2.5 2.9 3.3 Source: Table A.4.9 - 100 - Annex to Chapter 4 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS PROJECTIONS A. Receipts A.4.1 Merchandise Exports. Table A.4.1 contains estimates of India's merchandise exports for 1977/78, 1978/79 and 1979/80. The figures for 1977/78 and 1978/79 are official estimates of the Government. Those for 1979/80 are Bank estimates. Given the large diversity of Indian exports, the generally small share of Indian exports in world trade for most commodities and the rapidly changing market conditions both within India and abroad, no attempt is made to project exports on the basis of individual items. Our projections for 1980/81, 1981/82 and 1982/83 assume a 6.5% per annum volume growth of exports. We project export prices to rise with international inflation.l/ A.4.2 Invisible Receipts. Table A.4.2 presents estimates and projections of net invisible receipts by broad category along with their reported level for 1977/78, the latest available. A.4.3 Non-factor services include, among others, travel, transportation and insurance. Net receipts from these categories have grown quite rapidly since the early 1970s. The main reason is the growth of tourist receipts, which grew by 34% per annum between 1967/68 and 1977/78. The number of tourists arriving in India have grown by an average of over 10% per annum between the same dates, with much higher rates of growth, between 13% and 20%, for the most recent years, 1975/76 through 1978/79. The projections through 1982/83 assume a slowdown in the growth in tourist arrivals to just over 6% per annum and expenditures per head rising by the rate of international inflation (See Table A.4.7). Projections of other items in this category, both receipts and payments, are based on extrapolations of past trends and are small compared to tourist receipts on a net basis. (See Table A.4.6). A.4.4 Investment income was negative on a net basis from 1965/66 through 1977/78, with interest payments of foreign loans exceeding the interest receipts from Indian foreign exchange reserves and with other items (mainly interest transactions with the IMF) being small and negative on a net basis. Net investment income is estimated to have turned positive in 1978/79 and 1979/80, and is projected to grow even more positive during 1980/81 and 1981/82, due to the rapid rise in earnings from India's foreign exchange assets. Due to the high level of both the foreign exchange assets and the short-term interest rates, interest earnings are expected to remain high in 1980/81. Thereafter, a decline in the level of both reserves and interest rates are projected, which, along with a modest rise in interest payments on foreign loans, result in a sharp fall in net interest income in 1981/82 and a negative level by 1982/83. 1/ We assume the following rates of world inflation: in calendar year, 1980 = 10.5%, 1981 = 9%, 1982 = 8%, 1983 7%, in Indian fiscal years, 1980/81 = 10.1%, 1981/82 = 8.75%, 1982/83 = 7.75%. - 101 - Table A.4.1 INDIAN EXPORT PERFORMANCE 1977/78 - 1979/80 (uS$ million) Growth Rate (%) 1978/79 1979/80 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 Over Over Actuals Actuals Estimates 1977/78 1978/79 Agricultural Products 1808.9 1721.7 2130 -4.8 23.7 Cashews 174.6 97.8 130 -44.0 32.9 Coffee 227.0 175.6 200 -22.6 13.9 Marine Products 203.6 278.2 315 36.6 13.2 Oilcakes 155.7 141.1 165 -9.4 16.9 Spices 160.0 180.4 190 12.8 5.3 Sugar 22.7 160.8 290 608.4 80.3 Tea 665.3 414.9 420 -37.6 1.2 Tobacco 132.2 134.9 130 2.0 -3.6 Foodgrains 67.8 138.0 285 103.5 106.5 Iron Ore 281.2 183.8 305 0.9 7.5 Silver 91.8 115.1 - 25.4 Manufactures 3709.3 4246.0 4220 14.5 -0.6 Chemicals, Basic Chemicals etc./a 200.4 192.6 210 -3.9 9.0 Chemicals and allied products 184.4 177.7 185 -3.6 4.1 Clothing 386.8 518.5 500 34.0 -3.6 Cotton and silk textiles 458.4 445.3 480 97.1 7.8 Engineering goods 720.1 852.3 820 18.4 -3.8 Gems and jewelry 637.4 865.9 700 35.8 -19.2 Handicrafts 222.4 286.8 (325) 29.0 13.3 Iron and steel 216.5 140.2 30 -35.2 -78.6 Jute Manufactures 286.0 203.0 350 -29.0 72.4 Leather products 317.6 430.4 460 35.5 6.9 Processed foods 79.3 133.3 160 68.1 20.0 Sub-total 5891.2 6366.6 6670 8.1 4.8 Others 424.2 609.6 1145 43.7 87.8 Total 6315.4 6976.2 7800 10.5 11.8 /a Includes medicinal castor oil, essential oils and crude drugs in addition to organic, inorganic, drugs and pharmaceuticals, dyes and intermediates, and cosmetics, etc. Sources: Department of Commerce (D.G.C.I.S.), and World Bank estimates. - 102 - Table A.4.2 NET INVISIBLE RECEIPTS (in US$ million) 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Actuals Estimate Estimate Projected Projected Projected Non-factor Services 692 880 1050 1200 1400 1700 Investment Income -89 150 400 400 200 -100 Current Transfer 1077 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 Total 1679 2030 2450 2600 2600 2600 Source: Table A.4.5. (Presented in round numbers.) A.4.5 Current transfers, mainly private workers' remittances, grew rapidly from around US$100 in the early 1970s to just over US$1 billion by 1977/78 and are estimated to have maintained that level in 1978/79 and 1979/80. The out- look for current transfers is uncertain and largely depends on the employment opportunities for Indian nationals abroad, mainly in the Persian Gulf area. The rate of growth of workers' remittances has clearly slowed and may have stopped altogether. Nevertheless, employment opportunities for Indians are not expected to deteriorate significantly in the near or medium term. We therefore have projected current transfers to remain constant at US$1 billion through 1982/83, which implies a fall in real terms. This is a conservative estimate. A.4.6 Aid. New aid commitments have been projected to rise by the same rate as international inflation, with commitments by Consortium members, especially the Bank Group, rising by something more than these rates and commitments by other donors falling in real terms. The project: non-project composition of these commitments is projected to remain the same as the ratio that prevailed in 1978/79, even though there is a need for the ratio to fall and for commitments to rise to speed disbursements. Disbursements out of the new and old commitments are projected at the same rates that prevailed in 1978/79, even though there is a need to step up these rates as well. (See Table A.4.9.) A table of hypothetical aid disbursements based on more favor- able composition and disbursement rates is contained in the last paragraph of Chapter 4. Principal repayments are projected to rise by US$35-45 million each year of the period, the rise mainly due to the increasing repayment obliga- tions to OPEC countries. - 103 - B. Merchandise Imports A.4.7 Estimates and projections of imports through 1982/83 are contained in Table A.4.3. Table A.4.3. MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (US$ million in Current Prices) Estimates Projections 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Total Imports 8,488 11,000 13,800 15,925 18,650 Fertilizer 597 770 850 1,075 1,400 POL 2,043 4,050 5,400 6,200 7,400 Edible Oil 649 800 700 850 1,000 Iron & Steel /a 572 500 550 600 650 Others 4,513 4,880 5,800 6,600 7,500 Contingency - - 500 600 700 /a For years following 1978/79, the estimates and projections are for canalized iron and steel only. Non-canalized imports are included in the "others" category. Source: Department of Commerce (D.G.C.I.S.) and World Bank estimates and Projections. A.4.8 Fertilizers. Fertilizer imports are based on a projected growth of demand of 12% in 1980/81 and 11% in each of 1981/82 and 1982/83. During 1979/80, demand grew by only 6% or so, but this low rate reflected the effects of the drought. The faster growth during 1980/81 is based on the expectation of a resumption of a higher growth of demand due to an expectation of better weather. The projected growth rates of the latter two years are not as high as the rates of growth experienced during 1975-1979. Domestic projection of fertilizers, particularly of nitrogenous fertilizers, is expected to grow sharply next year as new capacity comes into use and capacity utilization rates improve. In the final two years, production of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers are expected to grow by 7%-10% per annum. All potash and most sulphur and rock phosphate will be imported for lack of domestic production. Imports of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers is expected to fall in volume terms in 1980/81 due to increased domestic production but rise in value terms due to higher international prices. During 1981/82 and 1982/83, imports of all major types of fertizers and fertilizer raw materials are expected to rise in both volume and unit value. (See Table A.4.10.) - 104 - A.4.9 POL. Demand for petroleum products is projected to rise 9.5% in 1980/81 and 8% per annum during 1981/82 and 1982/83. This rate is a bit lower than experienced over the past two years, considerably higher than those of the period 1973/74 through 1977/78, and close to the long-term trend. Domestic prices for petroleum were increased substantially during 1979/80 and may well be increased again early in 1980/81. This price rise will dampen growth in demand of POL products below that which otherwise would be expected from the economic recovery projected for 1980/81. Projections of domestic productions of crude oil and oil products based on current plans for additions to capacities are presented in Table A.4.4. Crude oil imports are projected as a residual of demand and supply after an allowance for some products imports and subject to constraints on crude refining facilities. Prices are estimated and projected on the basis of World Bank commodity price forecasts, which project the following price rise: 12.2% in 1981, 11.2% in 1982, 10.3% in 1983 and which result in the following price rises for the year as a whole for both crude oil and petroleum products: 1979/80, 76%; 1980/81, 32%; 1981/82, 12%; and 1982/83, 11%. A worksheet used in projecting POL imports is attached as Table A.4.11. Table A.4.4 POL PRODUCTION AND IMPORTS (in million tons) 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Actual Estimated Projected Projected Projected Crude Oil: Domestic Production 11.6 12.5 14.5 17.6 18.0 Crude Imports 14.7 16.4 16.0 16.0 17.0 Refinery Throughput 26.0 28.0 30.5 33.6 35.0 Products: Domestic Production /a 24.2 26.0 28.4 31.2 32.6 Products Import 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.0 6.2 Availability/Consumption 28.1 30.5 33.4 36.2 38.8 /a Projected at 93% of refinery throughput. Sources: Department of Petroleum, Planning Commission and World Bank estimates. - 105 - A.4.10 Edible Oils. Government policies governing the import of edible oils are not nearly as well known as for more traditional imported commodities such as foodgrain, POL and fertilizers. Domestic market conditions that have motivated the import of edible oils in the last two years have existed in previous periods without motivating large-scale imports. Furthermore, to a greater extent than fertilizer or POL (but similar to foodgrains) edible oil imports make only marginal contributions to domestic supply meaning any given import policy based on domestic supply and demand considerations would lead to highly volatile import volume. The new Government of India has not yet made clear its edible oil policy. For our present purposes we have projected edible oil imports at one million tons per year. Prices are projected using World Bank commodity price forecasts and are reflected in the worksheet for edible oils as Table A.4.12. A.4.11 Iron and Steel. Canalized steel imports during 1979/80 were around 1.4 million tons. Future import requirements for steel depend crucially on the capacity utilization of existing steel plants, which in turn depends on the state of supply of coal, power and other inputs. If capacity utilization were to improve dramatically in the meantime, steel imports could fall to insignificant levels. However, if the shortages and labor problems do not improve, volume imports could grow. Given the uncertainty, we project the volume of steel imports to remain constant and the price to grow in line with international inflation, i.e. by 10.1% in 1980/81, 8.75% in 1981/82, and 7.75% in 1982/83. A.4.12 Other Imports. Other imports are projected to rise by the same rate of total economic output, by 8% in real terms in 1980/81 and 5% per annum in real terms over 1981/82 and 1982/83. This is a considerably lower rate of growth than in 1977/78 and in 1978/79 but considerably higher than in 1979/80 or during the period 1973/74 through 1975/76, as can be seen in Graph A.4.1. There has been no stable relationship between overall economic growth and other imports, or, for that matter, total imports. Other imports have been severely suppressed during periods of foreign exchange scarcity by an import control policy which was designed to control the outgo of foreign exchange and promote import substitution. However, this control policy has been cautiously liberalized recently and other imports rose by a large amount. The future course of other imports depends as much or more on Government policy as on the rate of economic growth. Nevertheless, the Government is unlikely to be able to design a growth strategy to meet plan targets without expanding other imports in real terms. A.4.13 Contingency. In previous projections of imports we had included a provision for foodgrain imports. In the past several years the provision had been for the import of 4 million tons of wheat per annum which, at current price, would cost in the vicinity of US$1 billion landed in India. As dis- cussed in Chapter 2 there is now reason to believe that perennial foodgrain imports are not a necessary feature of India's import bill and if not, to continue projecting the import of 4 million tons of wheat per annum may result in an excessive provision for these imports. On the other hand it is clear that a spate of bad weather would cause a need for foodgrain imports. For - 106 - example, if the foodgrain crop in 1980/81 were no higher than in 1979/80, which is a possible result of another bad monsoon, India would face the need to import grain to avoid drawing stocks below their desirable operating level and to avoid major price rises. 1/ Graph A.4.1 GRAPH A.4.1 OTHER IMPORTS AT 1968 69 PRICES (IN U. S. DOLLARS MILLION estimated r0g S @ > X OLo Source- Department of Commerce ( D.G.C.I.S.) and orld Bank estimates. I~~~~~~~~~~ _ Source: Department of Commerce (D.G.C.I.S.) and World Bank estimates. 1/ As an example, if foodgrain production were again 118 million tons in 1980/81, and national income showed no rise, and therefore per capita consumption did not grow, the Government would have to increase domestic supplies by around 11.5 million tons to avoid upward pressure on prices. If the Government wanted to keep at least 8 million tons on stock by June 30, 1981, stocks could be drawn by only 2 million tons in 1981 meaning 9.5 million tons would have to be imported. - 107 - A.4.14 There are other uncertainties that cannot be reflected in point projections such as those presented. Projections for both the iron and steel and fertilizer imports are based, among other things, on supply estimates that assume the unusually bad shortages of 1979/80 will be substantially eased in the future. If some of the shortages persist, greater imports may be necessary. The price projections for POL products assume they rise by 3% per annum in real terms. If instead POL prices spurt in one year, our projections will be underestimates. If the troubles in Assam result in lower production than projected, a larger volume of POL imports will be needed. A.4.15 To cover these developments, we have included a new item called contingency. It has been roughly scaled to a level that would finance the import of 2 million tons of wheat, although we are not projecting this level of imports on the basis of a demand/supply balance, assuming weather normal. Rather it is a provision for unanticipated developments that would increase the import bill. - 108 - Table A.4.5 NET INVISIBLE RECEIPTS (in US$ million) 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Actuals Estimated Estimated Projected Projected Projected Non-Factor Service (net) 691.6 883.2 1070.2 1267.3 1448.2 1733.5 Investment Income (net) -88.9 152.7 486.7 386.1 186.8 -142.9 Current Transfers (net) 1076.6 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 Total Invisible Receipts (net) 1679.3 2035.9 2556.9 2653.4 2635.0 2590.6 Sources: Non-Factor services from Table A.4.6. Investment Income from Table A.4.8. Current Transfers assumed to equal US$1 billion per year 1978/79 through 1979/80. - 109 - Table A.4.6 NON-FACTOR PAYMENTS (US$ million) 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Receipts: Transportation (12.17) 328.4 382.1 428.6 480.8 539.3 605.0 Travel 619.6 810.2 970.0 1132.4 1310.3 1502.2 Insurance (13.58) 39.5 54.3 61.6 70.0 79.5 90.3 Government (n.i.e.) 35.3 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 Miscellaneous (19.48) 361.8 290.4 347.0 414.6 495.4 591.9 Total 1384.6 1572.0 1842.2 2132.8 2459.5 2824.4 Payments: Transportation (13.89) 251.9 288.1 328.2 373.8 425.7 484.9 Travel ( 7.52) 51.9 55.8 60.0 64.5 69.4 74.6 Insurance (11.6 ) 36.3 37.2 41.5 46.3 51.7 57.7 Government (n.i.e.) 51.4 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 Miscellaneous (12.62) 301.5 272.7 307.1 345.9 389.5 438.7 Total 693.0 688.8 771.8 865.5 971.3 1090.9 Net Receipts: Transportation 76.5 94.0 100.4 107.0 113.6 120.1 Travel 567.8 754.4 910.0 1067.9 1240.9 1427.6 Insurance 3.2 17.1 20.1 23.7 27.8 32.6 Government (n.i.e.) -16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Miscellaneous 60.3 17.7 39.9 68.7 105.9 153.2 Total 691.6 883.2 1070.4 1267.3 1488.2 1733.5 Sources: For those lines with a number in parentheses, projected on the basis of a trend equation estimated over the period, 1967/68 through 1977/78, with the number in parentheses the corresponding compound rate of growth. In the case of Government (not included elsewhere) both for receipts and payments, the levels are projected at US$35 million in each year, given the lack of any trend in either number or in net receipts in this category. Projections of travel receipts are from Table A.4.7. - 110 - Table A.4.7 TRAVEL RECEIPTS (in US$ million) 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Actuals Estimated Estimated Projected Projected Projected Tourist Arrivals in Thousands 667.4 756.9 805.3 853.6 908.2 966.4 Expenditure per head in US$ 928.4 1070.5 1204.6 1326.6 1442.7 1554.5 Total Expenditures in US$ millions 619.6 810.2 970.0 1132.4 1310.3 1502.2 Sources: Tourist arrivals in 1977/78, 1978/79 and first four months of 1979/80 from CSO: Monthly Abstract of Statistics. Projected to grow by 6.4% per annum in 1979/80 through 1982/83. This is a considerably lower rate of growth than experienced in the four years leading up to 1979/ 80, when tourist arrivals increased by 19%, 20%, 17% and 13% respect- ively. The trend rate of growth from the early 1960s to the late 1970s is 10% per annum. Total expenditures (and expenditures per head) for 1977/78 from Reserve Bank of India Bulletin (Sept-Oct., 1979) giving 1977/78 balance of payments data. Expenditures per head projected assuming expenditure increase at the same rate of international inflation: 15.3% in 1978/79, 12.5% in 1979/80, 10.1% in 1980/81, 8.75% in 1981/82 and 7.75% in 1982/83. - 111 - Table A.4.8 INVESTMENT INCOME (in US$ million) 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Actuals Estimated Estimated Projected Projected Projected Gross Receipts Calculation: Average Foreign Exchange Assets 4568.0 5927.0 6691.0 5907.0 4845.0 3122.0 Average Yield - % 6.8 10.0 14.0 15.0 15.0 14.0 Gross Receipts from Investment Income 311.1 592.7 936.7 886.1 726.8 437.1 Gross Payments Calculation: Interest Paid on Foreign Loans 295.0 340.0 362.0 400.0 440.0 480.0 Other Miscellaneous Investment Income Payments 105.0 100.0 88.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Gross Payments on Investment Income 400.0 440.0 450.0 500.0 540.0 580.0 Net Receipts on Invest- ment Income -88.9 152.7 486.7 386.1 186.8 -142.9 Source: Reserve Bank of India and World Bank estimates. Table A.4.9 PROJECTIONS OF GROSS AID DISBURSEMENTS -- 1980/81-1982/83 UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS (in US$ million) 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Project Non-Project Total Project Non-Project Total Project Non-Project Total A. STANDARD PROJECTIONS Opening Pipeline 6.53 .44 6.96 7.65 .44 8.12 8.74 .49 9.15 Disbursements from Pipeline 1.44 .31 1.74 1.68 .31 2.00 1.92 .34 2.25 New Commitments 2.69 .67 3.36 2.92 .73 3.65 3.15 .78 3.93 Disbursements from New Commitments .13 .33 .47 .15 .37 .50 0.16 .39 .53 Total Disbursements 1.57 .64 2.21 1.83 .69 2.52 2.08 .73 2.81 B. RISE IN NON-PROJECT AID Opening Pipeline 6.53 .44 6.96 7.22 .67 7.89 7.94 .81 8.75 Disbursements from Pipeline 1.44 .33 1.77 1.59 .47 2.06 1.75 .57 2.32 New Commitments 2.24 1.12 3.36 2.43 1.22 3.65 2.62 1.31 3.93 Disbursements from New Commitments .11 .56 .67 .12 .61 .73 .13 .66 .79 Total Disbursements 1.55 .89 2.44 1.71 1.08 2.79 1.88 1.23 3.11 C. RISE IN REAL COMMITMENTS Opening Pipeline 6.53 .44 6.96 7.28 .70 7.98 8.14 .85 8.99 Disbursements from Pipeline 1.44 .31 1.75 1.60 .49 2.09 1.79 .60 2.39 New Commitments 2.31 1.15 3.46 2.59 1.29 3.88 2.87 1.44 4.31 Disbursements from New Commitments .12 .58 .70 .13 .65 .78 .14 .72 .86 Total Disbursements 1.56 .89 2.45 1.73 1.14 2.87 1.93 1.32 3.25 Notes:A.Standard Projection: non-project aid constitutes 20% of total aid commitments; for project aid, disbursements in each year are 22% of opening pipeline and 5% of new commitments; for non-project aid, disbursements in each year are 70% of opening pipeline and 50% of new commitments; commitments rise by the rate of international inflation starting with a commitment level of US$3.05 billion. B.Rise in Non-Project Aid: same as in Standard Projection except non-project aid constitutes 33% of total commitment. C.Rise in Real Commitments: Same as in projection B except commitments rise by 3% per annum more than the rate of international inflation. The rate of international inflation is 10.1% in 1980/81, 8;75% in 1981/82 and 7.75% in 1982/83 Source: World Bank estimates. - 113 - Table A.4.10 FERTILIZER IMPORTS 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Consumption '000 Tons N 4229 4734 5270 P 0 1233 1356 1485 K20 681 754 830 Rockphosphate 2191 2386 2613 Sulphur 1461 1591 1742 Production '000 Tons N 3350 3685 3990 P 0 955 1040 1080 Rockphosphate 605 666 732 Imports Volume '000 Tons N 879 1049 1280 t2°5 278 316 405 K20 681 754 830 Rockphosphate 1586 1720 1881 Sulphur 1461 1591 1742 Total 4885 5430 6138 Unit Value US$/MT N (Urea) 422.59 461.97 505.63 P205 (DAP) 632.49 712.95 808.77 K20 197.21 215.59 235.96 Rockphosphate 47.02 52.57 58.14 Surphur 64.04 71.60 79.18 Import Value US$ Million N 371.46 484.61 647.21 P 0 (DAP) 175.83 225.29 327.55 K205 134.30 162.55 195.85 Rockphosphates 74.57 90.42 109.36 Sulphur 93.56 113.92 137.93 Total Value 849.72 1076.79 1417.90 Source: Fertilizer Association of India and World Bank estimates. - 114 - Table A.4.11 INDIA POL IMPORT PROJECTIONS Estimates Estimates Projections 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Crude Petroleum Volume (Million Tons) 14.7 16.4 16.0 16.0 17.0 Unit Value ($/Ton)/a 104.0 183.05 240.72 269.4 299.0 Value ($ Million) 1524.3 3002.02 3851.52 4310.0 5083.0 Petroleum Products Volume (Million Tons) 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Unit Value.($/Ton)/a 134.1 236.0 310.4 347.4 385.6 Value ($ Million) 518.6 1062.1 1551.8 1910.6 2313.4 POL Import Value 2042.9 4064.12 5403.3 6221.0 7396.4 Crude Petroleum (Million Tons) 11.63 12.5 14.5 17.55 18.05 ONGC Offshore 3.31 4.20 5.60 8.20 9.00 ONGC Onshore 5.60 5.45 6.05 6.50 6.20 OIL 2.67 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 AOC 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Crude Imports (Million Tons) 14.66 16.40 16.00 16.00 17.00 Refinery Throughput (Million Tons) 25.97 28.0 30.5 33.55 35.05 (Refinery Capa- city MTTC) (26.40) (29.50) (33.40) (36.00) (36.00) Products Production /b 24.20 26.04 28.4 31.20 32.6 Products Imports 3.87 4.50 5.0 5.0 6.20 Products Availability /c 28.07 30.5 33.4 36.2 38.8 Products Consumption /d 28.09 30.5 33.3 36.0 38.8 /a Estimated/projected by using the following average annual price rise: 1979/80, 76%; 1980/81, 32%; 1981/82, 11.9%; 1982/83, 11.0% /b Projected at 93% of refinery throughput /c Projected to equal consumption after 1979/80, and their imports are derived as a residual, with the balance of crude and products depending on the refinery capacity available. /d Estimated to grow by 11.6% in 1979/80 and projected to grow by 8% per annum thereafter. Sources: 1. Ministry of Petroleum 2. World Bank Staff Estimates - 115 - Table A.4.12 EDIBLE OIL IMPORTS 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 Actuals Estimates Estimates Projected Projected Projected Volume of Imports '000 Tons Soya Bean Oil 510.0 500.0 550.0 500.0 500.0 500.0 Rape Seed Oil 260.0 180.0 200.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 Palm Oil 460.0 370.0 350.0 350.0 350.0 350.0 Total Imports 1230.0 1050.0 1100.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 Prices US$/MT Soya Bean Oil 629.74 670.0 723.0 712.0 879.0 1015.0 Rape Seed Oil 651.97 694.0 750.0 740.0 915.0 1057.0 Palm Oil 595.82 669.0 703.0 659.0 779.0 940.0 Value US$ Million Soya Bean Oil 321.0 335.0 398.0 356.0 440.0 508.0 Rape Seed Oil 170.0 125.0 150.0 111.0 137.0 159.0 Palm Oil 274.0 248.0 246.0 230.0 273.0 329.0 Total Value of Imports 765.0 708.0 794.0 698.0 850.0 996.0 Source: Department of Commerce (D.G.C.I.S.) and World Bank estimates. - 116 - Appendix POPULATION AND FAMILY PLANNING A. Demographic Experience 1. Long-run population growth has been dramatic in India, as in most developing countries. In 1950 when India declared herself a Republic, her population was about 360 million. Now it is about 659 million; a new 1950 Republic having been added in 30 years. In 1950 the rate of population growth was about 1.3% per year. Rapidly declining death rate gradually raised this to over 2.2% per year in the later 1960s. Since then there has been a slow secular decline in the rate of population growth, and it is now probably below 2.0% per year. But there is not yet a decline in absolute numbers of people added per year, nor will there be in the near future. Even assuming a continued fairly rapid decrease in fertility, monthly increases in the Indian population will average more than a million persons for the next 20 years. 2. The age composition of the Indian population is characterized by a very high percentage of young dependent people: 41% of all Indians are below 15 years of age, a normal situation for rapidly growing populations. The dynamics of reduced population growth will eventually have a major effect on this percentage. When the population has stabilized, with lower death rates and much lower birth rates, the percentage of children under 15 years of age will have declined year by year as a result of these trends to reach a level of about 20%, less than half of their present share of the population. 3. In the past three years there has been a large swing in family planning performance. The number of family planning acceptors increased to an all time high in 1976 declined to very low levels in 1977, and appears to be recovering in 1980 to approximately the levels of 1975. The short-run effects of this swing are already realized; total births averted by family planning increased from 3.1 million in 1975 to 5.0 million in 1977. The subsequent drop in births averted was not substantial -- to 4.9 million in 1978 -- because of the lagged effect of terminal methods of fertility control. 4. The effects of family planning are a very substantial demographic force. The 5 million births averted in 1978 compared to the total of about 21 million to 22 million actual births in that year, and their order of magnitude, is sufficient to explain most of the long-run decline in the birth rate: from about 41 per thousand in 1966 to 34.4 per thousand in 1976, accord- ing to the official estimates. (Demographic scholars confirm the decline, but estimate the rates higher, at 43 per thousand to 45 per thousand in 1966 and 35 per thousand to 36 per thousand in 1976.) To attribute birth rate decline to family planning does not contradict the observation that birth rate decline is associated with increased education, better health and socio- economic development in general. These latter developments have their effect on births either through effective family planning after marriage, the Indian experience to date, or through their effect on age at marriage. The latter has not been an important element in India's declining birth rate. - 117 - 5. Except for 1972, a major drought year, when deaths approached 17 per thousand, the death rate has fluctuated in the neighbourhood of 15 per thousand to 16 per thousand through the 1970s. Death rates at this level continue the secular decline in the death rate observed over the last few decades: according to official estimates, the death rate averaged 27 per thousand in the 1940s, 22 per thousand in the 1950s and 19 per thousand in the 1960s. The future change in the death rate is an important determinant of population growth, since at 15-16 per thousand, the rate is still quite high. Some state in India have death rates much lower than the national average: Kerala 7.2 per thousand and Punjab 10.8 per thousand. (Estimates are for 1977, by the Sample Registration Survey.) The infant mortality rate in particular is still very high in many large and fast growing states: 176 per thousand live births in Uttar Pradesh, 161 in Gujarat, and 145 in Madhya Pradesh. For the country as a whole, infant mortality has not declined as fast as the death rate. 6. Fertility rates vary substantially by socio-economic groups. In general, the differentials are in the expected direction. Urban fertility is lower that rural fertility; women in higher income groups have lower fertility; women who marry early have more children than those who marry later; and women with substantial education have fewer children than women who are illiterate or slightly educated. 7. The relationship between per capita expenditure and fertility rates includes both the effects of higher income on fertility and the effect of fertility on income availability per capita within the household. Neverthe- less, it is striking that the highest expenditure group shown, with per capita expenditures not very far above the national average, have less than one-third the fertility of the lowest expenditure group. Another statistic that is perhaps surprising is that urban fertility in most classes is so near that of rural fertility. 8. The decline in the birth rate has been far from uniform across the country. State by state classification shows that about one-third of the country (by population) has birth rates below 30 per thousand. Another third has birth rates above 34 per thousand with the remainder concentrated in the intermediate range of 30-34 per thousand. Two major states, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, have birth rates over 38 per thousand. 9. Interstate variations in natural population growth rates are also large ranging from 13 (Orissa) to over 21 (Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh). Some of the states with high population growth rates also have high death rates; they will require intensive effort to bring down their population growth rates in view of the very large declines in death rates that will occur in the next one or two decades. Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, for example, have the highest death rates in India at 17.9 per thousand and 19.1 per thousand respectively and also are among the leading States in population growth at 2.1% per year, while other States such as Kerala and Punjab have already achieved somewhat lower population growth rates (1.8% and 2.0% respec- tively) with death rates of 7.2 per thousand and 10.8 per thousand. To put the same point another way, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are about 115 years behind the national average in their demographic transition, and perhaps they still face the prospect of accelerating population growth rates before declining fertility eventually outweighs declines in the death rate. - 118 - Table A.1 FERTILITY DIFFERENTIALS IN INDIA, 1972 T 0 T A L Socio-Economic Group Marital Fertility Rate Rural Urban Religion Hindus 6.8 5.8 Muslims 7.6 6.8 Christians 6.3 5.8 All Religions 6.8 6.0 Level of Education Illiterate 6.9 6.3 Literate, but below matric 7.1 5.0 Matric and above 5.0 4.5 Per Capita Monthly Expenditure Below Rs. 20 7.5 - Rs. 21-50 6.8 6.6 Rs. 51-100 5.8 4.3 Rs. 101 and above 2.4 2.5 Age at Marriage Below 18 6.9 6.4 18-20 6.7 5.5 21 and over 5.2 4.9 Source: Registrar General of India: Fertility Differentials in India, 1972. - 119 - Table A.2 INTERSTATE VARIATIONS IN BIRTH RATES Birth Rates (1977) Population Per Thousand Population Millions % of Total Below 20 Goa, Daman and Diu 1.1 /a 20 - 24.9 Nagaland 0.7 /a 25 - 26.9 Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Manipur 121.7 18 27 - 30.0 Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Tripura, Delhi, Chandigarh, Lakshadmeep, Pondicherry 82.4 13 30.1 - 32.0 Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir 162.2 25 32.1 - 34.0 Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya 88.8 13 Dadra and Nagar Haveli 34.1 - 37.9 Gujarat, Haryana Nicobar Island 44.8 7 Over 38.0 Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh 156.5 24 Birth Rates not estimated 0.2 - /a Total 659.4 100 /a Less than 1/2 of 1%. Source: Official Government of India projections of population 1980, and birth rates of 1977. B. The Family Welfare Program 10. Evolution of Family Planning Policies and Strategies. The perform- ance of the Indian Family Welfare program in reducing fertility and providing basic maternal and child health services should be judged against the slow pace of socio-economic change, and the enormous size of the population and the country. Initially, the national program did not produce spectacular results in reducing population growth, but both its organizational structure and service capabilities have improved substantially over the years. Today, the program includes virtually all the components of successful family welfare program in use anywhere in the world, and has long experience with - 120 - promotional and motivational campaigns. Concern over the rapid population growth and the need to have an effective family planning program cuts across all major political groups in India. The major impediments to family planning program at this stage is neither a lack of political commitment nor serious constrained service delivery capabilities but stagnant demand for program services. 11. Before considering current family planning policies and strategies, it may be useful to place them in their historical context. First steps towards developing a national family welfare program were taken during the first Five-Year Plan (1951-1956). The approach was basically clinical and relied on existing public health centers. There was little change in the objectives and strategy of the program during the Second Five-Year Plan (1956-1961) but the program emphasized growth in infrastructure and training. Over 1,030 rural and 400 urban family planning clinics were established and coii raceptives were made available at a further 1,865 rural and 330 urban liealth centers. 12. The 1961 census provided a new impetus to the national program. The population had increased from 361 million in 1951 to 439 million in 1961, a growth rate of 21.6% during the decade as against 13.3% in the previous decade (1941-1951). The Third Five-Year Plan (1961/62-1965/66) therefore advocated a much more comprehensive program. Plan outlays increased by more than ten-fold compared to the previous plan period and the number of family planning clinics reached over 5,000. An extension service component was intro- duced to supplement the clinical approach, especially in the rural areas. The new strategy also emphasized an integrated package of family planning and health services. The performance of the program measured by the number of acceptors was impressive during the period. Total acceptors increased from 105,000 in 1961 to over 2 million in 1966, and again increased to about 2.75 million by 1968/69, when, for the first time since 1950/51, there were signs of decline in the crude birth rate. The Fourth Five-Year Plan (1969/70- 1973/74) fixed a target of further reducing the birth rate to 32 per thousand by 1973/74 from the prevailing rate of 39 per thousand. In spite of several innovations, including mass vasectomy camps for provision of sterilization services and widespread distribution of condoms through retail shops, this target turned out to be unachievable. Acceptors had increased to 4.3 million by 1973/74 but the birth rate was still in the neighbourhood of 35 per thou- sand. The Fifth Five-Year Plan (1974/75-1978/79) reiterated Government's commitment to bring down fertility growth through family planning and set a target birth rate of 30 per thousand by the end of the plan period. The National Population Policy announced in April 1976 aimed at intensifying the family planning drive by introducing measures such as higher compensation for sterilization acceptors, group incentive to medical, teaching, labor and local bodies and higher program inputs. Greatly increased reliance was placed on sterilization. In some States strong disincentives were adopted and at times various official and unofficial measures to promote sterilization entailed some degree of coercion. As a result of these efforts, 8.2 million sterili- zations were performed in 1976/77 alone surpassing the official target set for the year by about 4 million. But strong resistance developed, not only to the sterilization drive, but to the whole program. In early 1977 the program came to a virtual halt. In June 1977, the new Population Policy stressed the - 121 - voluntary nature of family planning, reiterated the need for the integration of maternal and child health services to the program and put renewed emphasis on non-terminal contraceptive methods. 13. Institutional Framework and Program Inputs. Under the Constitution, responsibility for formulation of national family planning policy rests with both the Central Government and States, while implementation is the sole res- ponsibility of the States. The Central Family Welfare Council, where State health ministers, related Union ministries, voluntary organizations and other institutions actively involved in the field are represented, advises the Central Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 14. At the State level, with minor variations, the institutional frame- work reflects the pattern at the Center. The health ministries implement the program through the State Directorates of Health and Family Welfare Services and receive advice on policy matters from the State Family Welfare Councils. Every district has a District Family Welfare Bureau which directly controls both rural and urban Family Welfare Centers. All state expenditures on family planning and maternal and child health are funded by the Central Government to encourage States to increase their programs. 15. The base from which family welfare services are delivered is the Primary Health Centers and their sub-centers. Each Primary Health Center is planned to provide health and family welfare services for a population of about 100,000. These are primarily out-patient clinics, but also have a small number of beds for emergencies and minor operations. They are staffed by two or more doctors, supported by a Lady Health Visitor or an Auxiliary Nurse Midwife. The doctors share the supervision work and hold clinics in the sub-centers attached to the centers. The sub-centers are staffed by an Auxilliary Nurse Midwife and are designed to serve a population of about 10,000. In 1979, there were 5,471 Primary Health Centers, 46,209 sub-centers and about 2,000 urban family welfare centers staffed by 11,500 doctors, 8,500 Lady Health Visitors, 53,000 Auxiliary Nurse Midwives and over 100,000 other paramedical staff. There is, however, much room for improvement in both the quality of existing staff and their numbers. 16. Calculations of all-India averages for each of these inputs shows that there is one Primary Health Center or Urban Family Welfare Center for each 88,000 persons in the estimated 1980 population, a sub-center for every 14,000 persons, a public health doctor for every 57,000 persons and a lady health visitor or auxiliary nurse midwife for 11,000 persons. Considering all medical and paramedical personnel except doctors, there is one paramedic for 4,100 persons. Many Primary Health Centers and subcenters are inadequate in both their structures and their equipment. Although this problem is less intractable than the training or staffing problem, heavy physical investment is still required to supplement the existing infrastructure, as well as to add new centers and sub-centers to the system. 17. The long-term growth in public expenditure for family welfare pro- gram has been steady, responsive to increases in the intensity of program activity. The proposed outlay of Rs. 7.6 billion for family welfare in the Draft Sixth Plan--which is 87% above the actual spending during the Fifth Plan--assures continued growth. - 122 - 18. Overall Performance. Despite fluctuations in the number of acceptors of different family planning methods, the performance of the family welfare program has improved over the long run. In 1973/74, only 14.9% of couples in the reproductive age were effectively protected through the national family welfare program. Two years later, it had risen to 17.2% and in 1978/79 came to 22.8% after having reached a peak of 23.9% in 1976. The demographic impact of the program, measured in terms of births averted, is estimated to be 4.9 million in 1978/79 and 34.2 million since 1961. Table A.3 PLAN OUTLAYS FOR THE FAMILY WELFARE PROGRAM (in Rs. million) Fifth Plan Sixth Plan 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 (Actuals) (Proposed (Actuals) (Planned (Proposed Outlay) Outlay) Outlay) Services and Supplies 3,499.5 6,397.0 761.4 866.7 948.5 Training 106.8 450.0 40.3 74.7 123.9 Mass education 97.5 270.0 28.2 50.0 70.3 Research and Evaluation 51.7 98.0 18.2 24.4 27.4 India Population Project 196.5 45.0 37.8 37.0 28.1 M.C.H. 52.0 260.0 22.7 42.6 60.0 Organization 85.0 130.0 24.4 22.6 29.3 Total 4,089.0 7,650.0 933.0 1,118.0 1,287.5 Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare 19. Since its inception in early 1950s, the emphasis in the program has shifted among IUD, sterilization and conventional contraceptives, each new cycle generally starting as one or other method lost its momentum in attracting acceptors. Over the years, sterilization, especially vasectomy (male sterili- zation), has become the most dominant method. In 1979, 89% of the couples effectively protected were protected by sterilization, 4% by IUDs and 6.7% by conventional contraceptives. 20. Sterilizations have fluctuated dramatically from year to year, start- ing from low levels in the mid-1960s. Vasectomies registered peaks in 1967/68 (1.6 million), in 1972/73 (2.6 million) and in 1976/77 (6.2 million). Female sterilization (tubectomy) peaked in 1971/72 (600 thousand) and in 1976/77 (2 million) but they have been more stable and exhibit a stronger upward trend, with each successive trough being higher than the previous trough, than male sterilization where the trough to trough trend line is actually negative. 21. In 1966/67, total tubectomy operations numbered 102,000 and consti- tuted only 11% of total sterilizations. Until 1976/77, unaffected by major - 123 - fluctuations in overall program performance, tubectomy operations increased at a slow but steady pace. In 1975/76 tubectomy operations made up 46% of total sterilizations and reached 1.2 million. The decline in tubectomy acceptors from 2.1 million in 1976/77 to 761,000 in 1977/78 was relatively smaller than that of the vasectomy method, and its recovery is more rapid. In 1978/79, 1.1 million tubectomies were performed. Table A.4 SELECTED FAMILY PLANNING PERFORMANCE INDICATORS, 1973/74-1978/79 (in thousand) % of Couples Total Total Equivalent Effectively Births Year Acceptors Sterilizations /a Protected Averted 1973/74 4,323 1,233 14.9 2,993 1974/75 4,307 1,638 15.1 3,030 1975/76 6,802 3,068 17.2 3,129 1976/77 12,534 8,663 23.9 3,723 1977/78 4,517 1,240 22.8 5,047 1978/79 5,341 1,818 22.6 4,917 1979/80 4,279 1,448 22.1 3,668 (Up to December 1979) /a Defined as the level of delivered service of any type, which produces fertility effects equivalent to a single sterilization. Source: Statistical Appendix, Tables 2.1 and 2.2. 22. In 1967, a year after the introduction of IUD on a mass scale, IUD acceptors reached an all-time high of 909,726. The next year, acceptors dropped sharply to 669,000 and thereafter fluctuated between a low of 326,000 in 1977/78 and a high of 607,000 in 1975/76. Conventional contraceptives (condoms, diaphragms, jelly and cream tubes and foam) protected approximately 0.5 million couples in 1966/67 and about 3.6 million in 1976/77, after which use has levelled off slightly below that peak. (Protected couples is the calculated quotient of total devices of each type distributed, divided by the number required for complete protection of one couple from conception). Oral contraceptives have been available only on a limited scale; during 1978/79 they protected about 92,000 couples. Although they are not primarily a device for demographic control, legal abortions have a growing effect on the birth rate; since the passage of the Medical Termination of Pregnancy Act in 1972, a total 1.2 million abortions were performed at facilities approved by the program increasing from 24,000 in 1972/73 to 277,000 in 1978/79. Estimates of the number of illegal abortiong range from 2 million to 4 million annually. 23. The family planning performance data for 1978/79 and the first four months of 1979/80 clearly indicate a come-back from the sharp declines - 124 - observed in virtually all major methods during 1977/78. Except for male sterilizations, the number of acceptors for all contraceptive methods has surpassed the 1974/75 levels in 1978/79 and is likely to reach the 1975/76 levels in 1979/80. While the increase in the total acceptors of IUD and conventional contraceptives was modest, female sterilizations increased by about 40% between 1977/78 and 1978/79, and the proportion of tubectomy oper- ations to total sterilizations swung from 25% in 1976/77 to more than 80% in 1977/78 and 74% in 1978/79. This radical shift in the share of tubectomy operations is explained by the unusually poor performance of the vasectomy method during 1977/78 and 1978/79 and by the more consistent growth of tub- ectomies. The Government is now taking new initiatives to improve tubectomy capabilities as well as quality of services. Table A.5 FAMILY PLANNING PERFORMACE BY METHOD (1974/75 - 1978/79) Conventional Contraceptives Equivalent Equivalent Year Vasectomy Tubectomy IUD Users /a Pill Users /a 1974/75 611,960 741,899 433,630 2,521 - 1975/76 1,438,337 1,230,417 606,638 3,495 32,315 1976/77 6,199,158 2,062,015 580,700 3,634 58,306 1977/78 187,517 761,026 326,526 3,160 75,562 1978/79 377,320 1,064,651 537,644 3,270 91,681 1978/79 229,869 768,729 383,788 3,385 72,933 April/December 1979/80 352,012 970,004 461,483 2,743 83,115 April-January (Provisional) /a Defined as offtake of various devices divided by the average number required for prevention of conception for a year. Source: Statistical Appendix, Tables 2.1 and 2.2. 24. Another bright spot has been the continued growth in the number of oral pill. Increased supplies to Primary Health Centers, declaration by the Indian Council for Medical Research that the oral pill at low doses is safe, and the recent decision to allow paramedical staff at Primary Health Centers to prescribe pills, are partly responsible for the improving performance. Male sterilization showed only weak signs of recovery in 1978/79, and con- tinued to be the soft spot in the total performance of the program. Although vasectomy acceptors doubled between 1977/78 and 1978/79 the number of vasec- tomies is still below the level achieved in the last trough year. - 125 - GRAPH A.1 STERILIZATIONS IN INDIA 1966/ 67 -1978/ 79 VASECTOMY: male sterlization 62 00 _ __ ___ TUBECTOMY: female sterlization 6000_ 2800 A 2600- 2400 0 2200- C 2000- , , o .% -1800- 1400- 0 1200- E t ubectomy C 1000 - 800 -- - =---V 600 - - =~~~~~~~~~~0 400 - -- ---vasectomy 200- C-rO~ - ODN 4 U (D coU a) ( ~~ -4 ~~ (~~r& 4 - 126 - 25. Interstate Differentials in Family Planning Performance. Family planning performance over the years has been uneven among the States. Perfor- mance in Bihar, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh has been poor while Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab and Tamil Nadu have done better than other States. In 1979, the better performing States have protected between 27% and 35% of the couples at the reproductive age group, and the poor peformance States about 10% to 13%. In the same year, the all-India average was close to 23%. It is also important to note that 34% of the total couples at the reproductive age group were in the four poor perfor- mance States. 26. Two sets of variables are generally identified in analyzing the underlying reasons for interstate differentials in performance: (a) socio- economic variables: literacy levels, female labor participation rates, per capita income, urbanization; and (b) program output variables like per capita family planning expenditure and staff availability. Table A.6 lists 17 major States in three groups according to their relative performance -- measured by proportion of couples protected -- and gives corresponding values for socio- economic and program input variables. Various studies 1/ which analyze the inter-connected role of socio-economic variables and program inputs in deter- mining performances, confirm in more precise terms, what one can conclude from Table A.6. That is, family planning performance is relatively more advanced in those States where urbanization, education, employment and income, as well as the level of program inputs, are the highest. 27. Maternal and Child Health Program Performance. As an integral part of the family welfare program, the Maternal and Child Health Services provide immunization and nutritional supplements for both mothers and children with the ultimate objective of reducing maternal and infant mortality. Progress in both immunization and nutritional supplement services since 1976/77 has been significant. Total beneficiaries for all services almost tripled from 16.8 million to 49.8 million between 1975/76 and 1978/79. 28. This progress is largely due to GOI's increased emphasis on the health services in the last four years, as reflected by more than a three- fold increase in Maternal and Child Health Care expenditures between 1975/76 and 1977/78. A further four-fold increase in Maternal and Child Health Care outlay in the Draft Plan, compared to the total Fifth Plan expenditures, signals sustained future support for these services. 1/ In studies where an attempt was made to separate the joint effect of the pair, the results have not been uniform. S.N. Agarwala (1972), O.P.Vig (1972) and B.D. Misra (1973), for example, show a higher proportion of the variables explained by the program input variables while a more recent study by K.S. Sirikantan (1977) finds the input effects somewhat less than the socio-economic effects. Table A.6 SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND FAMILY PLANNING PERFORMANCE - SELECTED STATES State %of Couples Effec- % of Urban Popu- Female Literacy % of Women to Per Capita F.W. Per Capita Income tively Protected lation to Total Rates (1971) Total Employment Expenditure Rs. (March 1979) (1971) (1977) a/ Rs. (1976/77) Bihar 12.5 10.0 10.2 7.4 2.08 700 (1976/77) Jammu and Kashmir 10.1 18.5 10.9 8.4 0.97 986 (1977/78) Rajasthan 13.1 17.6 10.0 8.7 2.08 925 (1977/78) Uttar Pradesh 11.9 14.0 12.4 7.4 2.15 892 (1977/78) Andhra Pradesh 26.5 19.3 18.3 11.5 3.09 1,002 (1977/78) Assam 23.2 8.8 23.5 31.7 1.84 866 (1977/78) Himachal Pradesh 23.9 6.9 23.6 8.7 4.11 1,154 (1977/78) Karnataka 22.0 24.3 20.9 12.2 1.99 1,002 (1976/77) Madhya Pradesh 21.4 16.2 13.1 8.2 3.35 896 (1977/78) _ Orissa 24.8 8.4 16.2 6.5 2.84 785 (1975/76) 9 West Bengal 21.4 24.7 26.5 9.8 2.98 1,047 (1976/77) Gujarat 31.1 28.0 29.0 10.3 2.85 1,341 (1976/77) Haryana 31.7 17.6 17.7 8.0 2.74 1,472 (1976/77) Kerala 28.8 16.2 62.5 35.2 2.59 968 (1976/77) Maharashtra 34.9 31.1 31.0 11.3 2.42 1,628 (1977/78) Punjab 25.8 23.7 29.9 12.6 2.18 1,991 (1977/78) Tamil Nadu 28.7 30.2 30.9 15.8 2.75 1,031 (1977/78) All-India 22.8 19.9 21.9 12.2 2.78 1,189 (1977/78) a/ Employment in the organized sector Sources: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare - 128 - Table A.7 MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH SERVICE BENEFICIARIES 1975/76-1978/79 (million) 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 /a 1978/79 /a 1. Immunizations (a) T.T. for expectant mothers 1.45 2.14 3.43 3.35 (b) D.P.T. for pre-school children 2.41 4.02 7.67 6.11 (c) D.T. for school children 1.28 2.72 6.39 6.61 2. Prophylaxis against nutritional anaemia (a) Mother 3.70 3.29 7.39 8.80 (b) Children 3.52 3.05 6.79 8.12 3. Propohylaxis against blindness due to Vitamin A deficiency 4.48 7.00 9.70 16.81 Total Beneficiaries 16.84 22.22 41.22 49.80 /a Figures are provisional. Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare 29. National Population Policy. The broad outlines of the current national family welfare policies were first spelled out in the June 1977 National Population Policy and later refined in the March 1979 "Interim Report" prepared by the Working Group on Population Policy, established by the Planning Commission. The salient features of the 1977 National Policy can be summarized as follows: (a) motivation campaigns for all family planning methods should be free from compulsion and coercion; (b) family planning must embrace all aspects of family welfare, particularly those which are designed to protect and promote the health of mothers and children; (c) all contra- ceptive methods should be promoted with equal emphasis; (d) sterilization operations are to be offered free of cost, and monetary compensation con- tinued and extended; (e) the Central Government will continue to reimburse state family welfare expenditures; (f) establishment of village level, voluntary community health workers and intensification of the dai (indigenous midwife) training program should receive high priority, and (g) minimum age of marriage should be raised to 18 -for girls and 21 for boys. The 1977 policy statement also made a commitment to reduce the birth rate to 30 per thousand and 25 per thousand by 1978/79 and 1983/84, respectively. However, in January - 129 - 1978, in view of the slower-than-expected recovery of the family welfare performance during 1977, the birth rate target of 30 per thousand by 1978/79 was revised and shifted to 1982/83. 30. So far, policy makers have not made major attempts to rehabilitate and accelerate the male sterilization program, and have opted instead for greater attention to non-terminal methods, especially IUD and oral pill pro- grams. The principal plan of action for the revitalization of demand for male sterilization, especially in the Northern States, has been to organiza- tion of orientation camps for opinion leaders in villagers. 31. Legislation for increasing the age at marriage has already passed through the Parliament. On October 2, 1977, the Rural Health Scheme was launched and the training of community health workers initiated. The scheme "'will attempt to bring simple medical aid within the reach of every citizen by organizing a center of medical, paramedical, community health workers among whom the trained practitioners of indigenous systems of medicine will be a part". Nearly 30,000 community health workers have already been trained. There is also evidence that the Central Government is shifting from assistance based on rigid input/ population ratios to a system of allocation that will concentrate funds in the areas now poorly served by family welfare services where fertility and mortality remain at comparatively high levels. C. Demographic Prospects 32. Mortality. As mentioned above, the Indian death rate has been fluctuating year to year in the 1970s around a lower average rate than that of previous decades. Whether the long-term decline will be sustained, and at what rate, is a question that cannot be answered conclusively. The simple average of yearly death rates for the period 1970-77 is 15.7 per year, and a rate in the neighborhood of 15 is a likely average result for the decade, implying no deceleration in the long-term trend of longevity improvements: death rates would then be 27 during the 1940s, 22 during the 1950s, 19 during the 1960s and 15 during the 1970s. Evidence from the more advanced demographic states where death rates of 7% and 8% are already observed, indicate the potential for continued rapid improvement in longevity. Positive factors include the secular increase in food availability, and the continuing progress in female education. The latter is very strongly related to child survival. As more than a third of the total Indian deaths are among children under five and the female literacy has improved and is likely to improve further, the impact of these developments on the Indian death rate should be significant. The decline in the birth rate itself will also reduce death rates, as the infant mortality rate is a multiple of general mortality rates. In the projections that follow, age specific death rates have been assumed which result in the prediction that the average death rate will fall to 12.9 per thousand per year for 1980-85 and further to 11.9 per thousand for 1985-90. 33. Birth Rate. The GOI's short-term target is to achieve a birth rate of 30 per thousand by 1983 and a net reproductive rate of 1 by the end of the century. The Indian birth rate has indeed shown a significant decline in the - 130 - past 10 to 15 years. Two aspects of this decline are significant in project- ing the future fertility trend: (i) the timings of the decline, and (ii) the conditions under which the decline has taken place. 34. The Indian birth rate has declined by 8 to 10 points during the past 10 to 15 years. This decline has taken place at an accelerated rate in the more recent period with a reduction of about four points in the birth rate during the last five-year period. International experience indicates that the Indian birth rate is at a level where the rate of decline usually accelerates. In a large population like India's, when the national fertility starts declining, the decline in some population sub-groups is often cancelled by increases in other sub-groups. For example, first improvements in health care, nutrition, and female education appear to lead to increases in fertility, because they make women more capable of bearing children. In India, this stage may be largely over and the speed of birth rate decline may therefore be more rapid in the future. A further decline of about 15 points during the next 20 years does nQt appear to be impossible. This is all the more so when we consider the condition under which the decline in the birth rate took place. 35. Recent decline in the Indian birth rate was largely due to government family planning efforts. In most developing countries which have experienced a decline in the birth rate, the initial decline is generally due to increases in the age of marriage. Thus, in Sri Lanka during 1953-68, almost the entire decline in the birth rate was due to increases in age at marriage and changes in age composition; decline in marital fertility played no part at all. However, in India (excepting Kerala) the average age at marriage was so low that the modest increase that has taken place in recent years had negligible effect on the Indian birth rate. Two inferences follow. First, in India, the potential for further decline in the birth rate due to the marriage factor still remains to be exploited. If the recently enacted minimum age of marriage of 18 years for girls were to be adhered to from 1981 onwards, the number of births that would take place during 1981-2001 would be less by about 12% (that is, by 45-70 million -- the position in this range depending upon the success of the family planning program). The diffe- rence in the birth rate would be about 3-4 points by the end of the century, but would be much larger (7-9 points) during much of the intermediate years. 1/ Second, the extent of a further decline in the Indian birth rate is condi- tional to the continuation of a successful official family planning program. Despite several setbacks, the Indian family welfare program's effectiveness in reducing fertility has grown over the years. There is also no doubt that the program will recover from the 1977/78 slump and continue to improve its performance. The question is how soon and by how much. 36. Looking at the short-term prospects, it seems unlikely that the 1978 birth rate target of 30 per thousand by 1982/83 is attainable, The operational plan drawn up to reach this target envisages 25 million conventional sterilizations, 5 million IUD insertions, and distribution of 6 million contraceptives (including oral pills) during the 5-year period 1978/79-1982/83. 1/ International Institute for Population Studies: Dynamics of Population and Family Planning in India, 1979, pp. 89-135. - 131 - These targets are far beyond the average performance of the recent past. The target of 5 million annual sterilizations, for example, has only been reached once in the past and sterilizations have never been sustained at close to this level for two years in a row. The second highest year had total sterilizations of only 3.2 million. The IUD insertions would also need to be doubled from its current level of 500,000 annual acceptance. Furthermore, during 1978/79, the first year of the five-year program, performances in sterilization of IUD programs were already 3.5 million and 500,000 below the targets, respectively. Therefore, it would be more realistic to expect a 30 per thousand birth rate by 1984/85, provided a moderate increase in age of marriage is realized during the period. 37. The prospects for attaining the long-term target of a net reproduc- tion rate of one by the end of the century is much more difficult to assess. The study mentioned above shows that if the family planning output is main- tained at a "sterilization equivalent" of 7.3 million per year, the Indian fertility rate can be brought down to replacement level by the end of the century even without any change in the age at marriage. Simultaneously, if the age at marriage can be increased to 18 by 1981, the required family planning output will be less, approximately 6.5 million "equivalent sterili- zations". 38. In 1975/76, about 2.7 million sterilizations were done, 600,000 IUDs were inserted and a total of 3.5 million conventional contraceptives were distributed. These add up to a sterilization equivalent of 3.1 million, about 50% of the target mentioned above. In the following year, the program performance was 8.7 million equivalent sterilizations, about 33% higher than the target. Between 1976/77 and 1977/78, the performance declined from an equivalent sterilization of 8.7 million to 1.2 million. Most recent data -- 1978/79 and 1979/80 -- indicate a comeback from the sharp decline of 1977/78. In 1979/80, the total equivalent sterilization figures were about 2 million. Thus over the next 20 years, the average annual performance measured in terms of equivalent sterilizations would have to be approximately treble the 1979 level to achieve a net reproduction rate of one, assuming an early increase in age at marriage. 39. Achievement of the above family planning targets would require an increase in contraceptive demand and substantial improvements in the service delivery system. Although the services delivered in 1976 were far above the target level, it is considered unlikely that vasectomies will sustain a very high rate. All other systems are somewhat more complex, so to achieve a high level of sterilization equivalents, with fewer male sterilizations, will require a larger program input. Steps to improve the delivery system are to a large extent underway and with further emphasis could cope with a larger clientele within a relatively short period. On the demand side, progress will be facilitated by any improvements in income, education, health (especially maternal and child health), and employment opportunities in rural India. It should not be overlooked, however, that India has achieved a fairly rapid increase in family planning acceptance during the last decade--a period of modest achievement in general socio-economic development. This appears to indicate that program inputs are also important. Experience has shown that intensive motivation drives can be very effective in the short - 132 - run, but so far they have never been sustained in the long run. Thus, for example, each peak year in male sterilizations has been followed by a new trough lower than previous troughs. More effective and sustained demand stimulus can be provided mainly through extension efforts and this requires the training of a very large number of paramedical personnel to act as extension workers. India's plans call for a sustained growth in the number of professional paramedics. In addition, since the beginning of the Draft Sixth Plan nearly 30,000 Community Health Workers have been selected and given short training courses. These are not full-time workers in medicine or family planning but rather residents of villages who perform less-skilled work part-time on a modest stipend (Rs 50 per month) with some support in the form of simple medicine, drugs, contraceptives services, etc. Their task include, among other things, family planning extension. So far the effectiveness of the system of Community Health Workers is unproven, in relation to family planning and full functional integration of these workers into primary health system has yet to be accomplished. But further development of both the number and the training level of these workers could potentially be important in the program to stimulate demand for family planning. 40. Population Projections. Several projections of India's population to the end of the century are available. A few of them are reproduced in Table A.8. There are wide differences not only with respect to the projected population but also with respect to the estimate for 1980. The discrepancy in the 1980 estimate, as in the case of the projected figures for 2000, is due to different assumptions about the degree of under-numeration in the 1971 census and the assumed trend in birth and death rate since 1971. These differences will remain unresolved as the Indian demographic data are not accurate enough to make a unique set of estimates for 1980 nor adequate to project them to the year 2000 within narrow limits. Table A.8 POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR INDIA Sources 1980 1990 2000 1. Registrar General of India (1979) 659 786 - 2. United Nations (1979) 694 862 1,037 3. World Development Report (1979) 674 802 973 4. Projection based on NRR=l in year 2000 672 803 918 41. Analysis of the fertility trend in the previous section has con- cluded that while the Expert Groups target of a net reproduction rate of one by 2001 seems feasible, it will require concerted and sustained effort to increase the demand for family planning services. The implications for population growth of achieving this target are worked out in Table A.9. - 133 - Table A.9 PROJECTIONS OF INDIA'S POPULATION ASSUMING A NET REPRODUCTION RATE OF ONE IN YEAR 2000 1980/ 1985/ 1990/ 1995/ 2000/ 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 Population (millions) 672 739 803 863 918 Net Repro- duction Rate 1.63 1.42 1.27 1.12 1.00 Birth Rate (per thousand) 31.90 28.40 25.80 23.20 20.60 Death Rate (per thousand) 12.90 11.90 11.20 10.80 10.40 Population In- crease (per thousand 19.00 16.50 14.50 12.40 10.20 Source: World Bank Projections. 42. This projection incorporates an increase in expected life at birth from 51.8 years in 1980 to 57.8 years in 2000, or an increase of about 0.3 years per year for this period. This is a modest increase compared to inter- national experience but it is consistent with the trend in decline of Indian death rates; it results in an average annual death rate projection of about 12.5 for the 1980s decade compared to the estimated 1970s death rate of about 15. 43. The results of these projections are not particularly startling, Because they are based on the relatively optimistic assumption of a net reproduction rate of one by the year 2000 they imply a year 2000 population of only 918 million, considerably below that projected by the UN and the World Development Report. They nonetheless serve to emphasize the importance of rapid progress in family planning, in that the projections of the World Development Report, based on otherwise similar assumptions, imply a population of about 50 million greater in the year 2000 on account of the assumption that the net reproduction rate will not reach one until the period 2015-20. - 134 - - 135 - S T A T I S T I C A L A P P E N D I X - 136 - ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF INDIA - 1980 Statistical Appendix Table No. Table of Contents HUMAN RESOURCES 1.1 Estimated Annual Population and Distribution by Sex 1961-2001 1.2 Distribution of Population by Age-Group and Sex 1961-1981 1.3 Selected Demographic Characteristics by States 1.4 Trends in Demographic Charateristics of the Population 1.5 Trends in Acceptance of Family Planning Methods and Estimated Number of Births Averted 1.6 Expectations and Achievements of Family Planning Program in 1978/79 1.7 Employment in the Organized Sector - by Industry 1.8 Distribution of Persons Aged Five and Above by Usual Activity Status 1.9 Statewise Unemployment Rates by Current Activity Status 1.10 Employment Exchange Statistics 1.11(a) Number of Industrial Disputes, Workers Involved and Man Days Lost - by Public and Private Sectors 1.11(b) Man Days Lost - by States, 1974-1979 1.11(c) Man Days Lost - by Industrial Groups, 1974-1979 1.12 Education - Progress of Enrollment 1.13 Statewise Ratios of Doctors and Hospital Beds to Population - 1979 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2.1 National Income and Some Related Aggregates (at current and 1970/ (a and b) 71 prices) - 137 - Table No. 2.2 Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost by Industry of Origin (a and b) (at current and 1970/71 prices) 2.3 Gross Savings and Investment (at current and 1970/71 prices) 2.4 Disposable Incomes and Its Use (at current and 1970/71 prices) 2.5 Available Resources and Their Use (at current and 1970/71 prices) 2.6 Gross Domestic Capital Formation by Industry of Use (at current (a and b) and 1970/71 prices) 2.7 Growth of Total and Per Capita Net Domestic Product by States FOREIGN TRADE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 3.1 Merchandise Exports (value at current prices) 3.2 Merchandise Imports (value at current prices) 3.3 Unit Value and Volume Indices of Exports and Imports, and India's Terms of Trade 3.4 Unit Value and Volume Indices of Exports - by Major Commodity Groups 3.5 Unit Value and Volume Indices of Imports - by Major Commodity Groups 3.6 Destination of Exports 3.7 Origin of Imports 3.8 External Reserves 3.9 Balance of Payments AID AND DEBT 4.1 Aid and Debt Summary 4.2 Gross and Net Aid Flows - 1978/79 and 1979/80 (a and b) 4.3 Project and Non-Project aid Pipeline - 1978/79 and 1979/80 (a and b) - 138 - Table No. 4.4 External Debt Service Payments - 1978/79 to 1980/81 4.5 Gross and Net Flows of Suppliers' Credits - 1978/79 and 1979/80 PUBLIC FINANCE AND PLANNING 5.1 Consolidated Finances of Central and State Governments 5.2 Central Government Finances 5.3 State Government Finances 5.4 Tax Revenue - Center and States 5.5 Current Expenditures - Center and States 5.6 Transfers Between Center and States 5.7 Economic Classification of the Central Goverment Finances 5.8 Projected and Actual Plan Outlays by Sector (Plan totals at base-year prices for projections and current prices for actuals) 5.9 Projected and Actual Plan Outlays by Sector (annual averages at 1970/71 prices) 5.10 Achievement of Plan Targets MONEY, CREDIT AND PRICES 6.1 Money Supply and Sources of Change 6.2 Base Money and Sources of Change 6.3 Government Market Borrowing (Net) 6.4 Selected Monetary Policy Instruments 6.5 Interest Rates - Short Term Commercial Banking Rates 6.6 Interest Rates - Long Term Rates 6.7 Public Sector Banks - Advances to Priority Sectors - 139 - Table No. 6.8 Assistance by Term Lending Institutions to the Industrial Sector 6.9 Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices - by Years 6.10 Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices - by Quarters 6.11 Price Indices of Selected Agricultural Commodities 6.12 Investment Price Indices 6.13 C6nsumer Price Index for Industrial Workers, Urban Non-Manual Employees and Agricultural Laborers AGRICULTURE 7.1 Production of Principal Crops 7.2 Index Numbers of Agricultural Production 7.3 Growth Rates in Area, Production and Yield of Selected Crops from 1949/50 to 1977/78 7.4 Statewise Growth in Production of Selected Crops from 1964/65 to 1977/78 7.5 Availability of Cereals and Pulses 7.6 Public Distribution of Foodgrains 7.7 Irrigation Summary SUMMARY AND TRANSPORT 8.1 Index of Industrial Production - Industrial Groups 8.2 Index of Industrial Production - by Use Base and Input Base 8.3 Production of Selected Industries 8.4 Trends in Capacity Utilization of Selected Industries 8.5 Capital Market - Selected Indicators (Capital Raised by Non- Government Companies and Deposits with Joint Stock Companies) 8.6 Investment in Public Sector Enterprises - 140 - Table No. 8.7 Capital Employed, Gross Profit and Net Profit of Selected Public Sector Enterprises 8.8 Production of Saleable Steel by Main Producers 8.9 Production, Imports, and Consumption of Fertilizers 8.10 Generation of Electricity by Region 8.11 Electricity Consumption by Sector 8.12 Indian Railways - Freight and Passenger Traffic 8.13 Finances of Indian Railways - 141 - Table 1.1 ESTIMATED ANNUAL POPULATION & DISTRIBUTION BY SEX 1961 - 2001 (in thousands) Year Male Female Total 1961 227,394 213,946 441,340 1962 232,872 218,847 451,720 1963 238,487 223,869 462,356 1964 244,291 229,011 473,302 1965 250,177 234,280 484,457 1966 256,249 239,676 495,924 1967 262,406 245,145 507,551 1968 268,732 250,758 519,490 1969 275,229 256,519 531,748 1970 281,904 262,432 544,337 1971 288,764 268,502 557,266 1972 294,757 273,922 568,679 1973 300,919 279,494 580,413 1974 307,255 285,222 592,477 1975 313,771 291,112 604,883 1976 320,471 297,168 617,638 1977 326,341 302,505 628,847 1978 332,374 307,988 640,362 1979 338,574 313,623 652,197 1980 344,946 319,412 663,359 1981 351,497 325,351 676,848 1986 382,028 353,239 735,267 1991 411,306 380,115 791,421 1996 437,818 404,598 842,415 2001 460,142 425,386 885,528 Note: The population figures for the Census years 1961 and 1971 differ from the official estimates as they have been corrected for under-recording. Source: World Bank estimates. Table 1.2 DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY AGE-GROUP & SEX 1961-1981 (in thousands) Year (O - 4) (6 - 14) (15-20) (21-30) (31-40) (41-50) (56 + Total 1961 Males 43,296 48,967 26,395 36,536 28,705 28,103 15,391 227,394 Females 42,251 46,816 24,880 34,633 25,955 24,431 14,980 213,946 Total 85,547 95,783 51,275 71,169 54,660 52,534 30,371 441,340 1971 Males 55,058 65,404 32,699 43,522 33,896 35,446 22,739 288,764 i Females 51,502 61,697 30,811 40,613 30,715 31,939 21,224 268,502 Total 106,560 127,101 63,510 84,135 64,611 67,385 43,963 557,266 1981 Males 55,629 77,663 45,126 57,108 41,115 43,613 31,245 351,497 Females 51,737 71,230 42,207 53,250 37,985 39,562 29,379 325,351 Total 107,366 148,893 87,333 110,358 79,100 83,175 60,624 676,848 Note: The population figures differ from the official census estimates as they have been corrected for under-recording. Source: World Bank estimates. Table 1,. SE1CTED DEUMGRAPHIC CHRA8ACTEISTICS BY STATES Sex Ratio Aver ge Compound Crude Birth Crude Death General MAait.al TPtal Msrital Grone Repro- Percentage of Working Force Literc.y Area Population (million) Population (femalon per Growth Rate of Rate per 1000 Rate per 7000 Fertility Rate Fertility Rate duetion Rate Urban to Total a Peroentage Rate (noo Sq.Km) N rch 1979 per Sq. Km 1000 males) Popolation ( Pee Pop on Fe Pouaion B Rural 7rba Rual Urban Rral Urbn Populti of Tott1 Pop.- ( State/Union Territory 1971 1971 (entimated) 1971 1971 aD ) 1961-1971 flai hi 1a7n o 1972 1972 1972 2Ura 1972 1972 Popu lation 1971 1P71 Andhra P-adesh 276.8 43.43 49.74 157 977 1.92 33.4 13.2 164.0 156.4 5.60 4.92 2.36 2.07 19.3 41.39 24.57 Assam 78.5 14.63 18.55 186 896 3.02 30.6 13.1 227.5 163.9 7.42 5.37 2.79 1.95 8.6 28.35 28.72 Bihar 173.9 56.35 64.16 324 954 1.95 31.1 o/ 12.1 c/ 160.3 134.9 5.73 4.91 n.a. 1.74 10.0 51.03 19.94 Gojarat 196.0 26.70 32.00 136 934 2.61 35.8 12.7 222.6 175.7 7.84 6.15 3.11 2.73 28.1 31.45 35.79 Har.-na 44.2 10.04 11.74 227 867 2.83 33.4 13.4 232.2 179.6 8.15 6.45 3.38 2.29 17.7 26.44 26.89 Himeehal Pradesh 55.7 3.46 3.77 62 958 2.10 27.3 11.8 182.8 153.2 6.54 5.13 2.78 1.90 7.0 36.95 31.96 Jam- & Ka-hmir 222.2 4.62 5.38 21 878 2.63 32.7 11.7 202.2 144.2 9.65 8.38 2.40 1.30 18.6 29.76 18.58 Karnataka 191.8 29.30 33.96 153 957 2.19 78.8 11.7 165.0 141.7 5.80 4.85 2.27 1.65 24.3 34.74 31.52 KIera. 38.9 21.35 25.06 549 1,016 2.36 25.2 7.0 184.1 180.2 6.87 6.81 2.25 2.01 16.2 29.12 60.42 sadhye Pradeeh 442.8 41.65 49.93 94 941 2.55 37.3 15.1 212.8 197.0 7.81 6.47 3.47 2.68 16.3 36.72 22.14 M.haraehtea 307.8 50.41 59.17 164 930 2.46 26.9 10.3 165.7 159.2 5.89 5.43 2.41 1.94 31.2 36.48 39.18 Manipur 22.4 1.07 1.25 48 980 3.24 30.7 7.0 194.4 153.4 6.67 8.36 1.96 1.75 13.1 34-57 32.91 Veghala.e 22.5 1.01 1.18 45 942 2.78 32.0 10.2 205.8 n.a. 6.59 n.a. n.e. n.a. 14.5 44.17 29.49 Nagaland 16.5 0.52 0.58 31 871 3.41 22.3 6/ 0 4/ n.a. n.a. n.a. n.e. n.a. n.a. 9.9 50.75 27.40 Orisna 155.8 21.94 25.68 141 988 2.26 32.9 14.1 167.2 159.8 5.90 5.47 2.43 2.02 8.4 31.22 26.18 PunJab 50.4 13.55 15.68 269 865 1.98 28.3 11.2 191.8 171.9 7.33 6.66 2.79 2.25 23.7 28.87 33.67 Rajanthan 342.2 25.76 30.53 75 911 2.49 35.5 15.6 215.2 183.6 7.75 6.22 3.34 2.45 17.6 31.24 19.07 Sikkim 7.3 0.21 n.a. 29 863 2.61 n.a. n.a. n.e. n.a. n... n.. n.a n.e. 9.5 n.a. n.e. Taxil NRdo 130.1 41.20 47.12 317 978 2.03 28.8 12.8 166.4 142.1 5.88 5.o6 2.29 I.61 30.2 35.78 39.46 Tripora 10.5 1.56 1.81 149 943 3.14 28.8 11.6 168.9 137.5 5.45 4.27 2.08 1.64 10.4 27.79 30.98 fttar Pradeh 294.4 88.34 99.32 300 879 1.82 40.4 20.2 221.2 194.5 8.13 6.78 3.58 2.46 14.0 30-94 21.77 Went Bengal 87.9 44.31 52.80 504 891 2.41 31.9 c5 11.9 _/ n.a, 155.6 n.e. 5.57 n.a. 1.76 24.7 27.91 33.20 A & B Iniands 8.3 0.12 0.13 14 644 6.12 33.1 8.3 307.6 164.9 9.06 3.35 n.a. n.a. 22.6 39.55 43.59 Arunachal Pradech 83.6 0.47 0.55 6 861 3.34 30.6 4/ 7.3 d/ 243.7 n.a. 12.49 n.e. n. n. n.a. 3.6 57.65 11.29 Chandigarh 0.1 0.26 0.30 2,257 749 7.93 26.5 4.3 265.3 231.8 7.33 6.33 n.a. n.a. 90.7 53.29 61.56 Dadra & Nagar Rayeli 0.5 0.07 0.09 151 1,007 2.50 36.3 / 17.5 d/ 173.6 n.m. 6.76 n.a. n.a. n.a. - 47.17 14.97 Delhi 1.5 4.07 5.60 2,738 801 4.34 25.7 8.1 222.5 172.2 7.96 6.10 3.50 2.17 89.7 30.21 56.61 Goa, Damen & Di. 3.8 o.86 1.00 225 989 3.19 21.0 9.2 16o.o 129.8 5.74 5.13 1.75 1.32 26.5 31.67 44.75 Lakshadw.. p 0.03 0.03 0.04 994 978 2.81 50.6 d/ 8.9 d/ 170.8 n.a. 5.73 n.a. n.a. n.a. _ 26.15 43.66 mi-or 0.5 0.33 n.a. 983 947 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.. n.. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 41.9 n.e. n.a. Pondicherry 21.1 0.47 0.55 16 989 2.48 27.4 lo.6 161.1 146.8 5.89 5.96 n.a. n.a. 11.4 29.90 46.02 l0l-India 1,287.8 548.2 640.8 !' 177 930 2.24 33.2 14.1 190.8 172.9 6.82 6.09 2.75 2.07 19.9 32.92 29.46 / Re-ised estimate in 643.29 for which State-wine entimaten are not availhbls. 9/ Provioional. f tel-too to 1976. ,/ Bolaton to rural areas only. Souro: Office of the Regit-rar-General of India. - 144 - Table 1.4 TRENDS IN DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION Average Compound Growth Rate of Population during Sex-Ratio Density of Percentage of population (million) Previous Ten Years (Female per population Urban Population Year Total Males Females (% per annum) 1000 males) Per Km to Total 1951 361 185 176 1.26 946 117 17.30 1961 439 226 213 1.98 941 142 17.98 1971 548 284 264 2.24 930 173 19.91 1981 a/ 672 348 324 2.06 931 204 22.04 1991 a/ 799 412 387 1.75 939 243 24.33 Actuals for 1951/61 & 1961/71 and Assumptions Underlying Official Population Prolectione 1971-91 General c/ Fertility Rate (per thousand Average Expectation of Birth Death Population Average for b/ woamen of child- Life at Birth (years) Rate c/ Rate Growth Rate Period - bearing aRe) Male Female -------------(per thousand population)------------- 1951/61 201 41.9 40.6 40.9 22.0 18.9 1961/71 192 46.4 44.7 41.2 19.2 22.0 1971/76 175 50.1 48.8 36.6 15.2 21.4 1976/81 154 52.6 51.6 32.9 13.2 19.7 1981/86 133 55.1 54.3 29.5 11.6 17.9 1986/91 117 57.6 57.1 27.0 10.4 16.6 All India Sample Resistration Survey: Vital Rates (Annual rate per thousand) Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 Live Births Year Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban Total Rural Urban 1970 36.8 38.9 29.7 15.7 17.3 10.2 129 136 90 1971 36.9 38.9 30.1 14.9 16.4 9.7 129 138 82 1972 36.6 38.4 30.5 16.9 18.9 10.3 139 150 85 1973 34.6 35.9 28.9 15.5 17.0 9.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1974 34.5 35.9 28.4 14.5 15.9 9.2 n.a. n.J. n.a. 1975 35.2 36.7 28.5 15.9 17.3 10.2 n.a. n.s. n.a. 1976 34.4 35.8 28.3 15.0 16.3 9.5 n.a. n.8. n.a. a/ Projections by Registrar-General of India, for March 1 of year shown. The projections yield somewhat lower values than do those produced by World Bank staff (Table 1.1), which have a higher base to adjust for census under-reporting. It should also be noted that the projections were made before the decided slump in performance of the National Family Welfare Program, dating from March 1977. At this time it is by no means clear how long it will take to get the program back to its former effectiveness, and beyond. It therefore seams inevitable that the official population projections will have to be revised upwards. b/ Projections relate to mid-year of period. c/ For 1971-91 these values are probably understated, for the reasons given in footnote a. Sources: 1. Office of the Registrar-General. 2. Planning Comsission. Draft Five Year Plan. 1978-83. - 145 - Table 1.5 TRENDS IN ACCEPTANCE OF FAMILY PLANNINr METHODS AMD ESTIMATED NUMBEX OF BIRTHS AVERTED (in thousands) CuOultive Medical Cu,ulatioe b/ Cumulative Users of Number of Terains- Number of Number of Total Sterilizstlon IUD Conventional .. Total Equivalent Births Averted tion of Births Averted Births Averted Year Male Female Total Insertions Contraceptives Acceptors Sterilizations since 1961 Pregnancy since 1961 since 1961 1956 2 5 7 7 7 1960 37 27 24 64 64 1965/66 S/ 577 94 671 813 582 2,066 974 n.a. n.s. 1966/67 785 102 887 910 465 2,262 1,216 1,151 1,151 1968/69 1,383 282 1,665 479 961 3,104 1,878 3,253 3,253 1970/71 879 451 1,330 476 1,962 3,768 1,598 6,787 6,787 1971/72 1,620 567 2,187 488 2,354 5,030 2,481 8,928 8,928 1972/73 2,613 509 3,122 355 2,398 5,874 3,373 11,460 24 19 11,479 1973/74 403 539 942 372 3,010 4,324 1,233 14,452 45 55 14,507 1974/75 612 742 1,354 433 2,521 4,307 1,638 17,482 98 133 17,615 1975/76 1,438 1,231 2,669 607 3,528 6,803 3,069 20,612 214 304 20,916 1976/77 6,199 2,062 8,261 580 3,692 12,534 8,663 24,334 279 527 24,861 1977/78 187 761 948 326 3,252 4,527 1,242 29,384 247 725 30,109 1978/79 390 1,093 1,483 552 3,603 5,638 1,872 34,316 313 975 35,291 1979/80 285 723 1,012 d/ 364 2,721 4,097 1,289 37,580 185 1,123 38,703 (upto November 79) a/ From 1970/71 onwards the figures exclude condems distributed freely to vasectomised cases and as free samples. Equivalent users ban been derived by dividing the number of pieces of condoms, diaphgrasa, jelly & cream tubes, foam tablets and or-l pill cycles by 72, 2, 7, 72 and 13 respectively, which are the average numbers required to give complete protection to a couple in one year. k/ Estimated by assuming that percentage of births averted due to medical termination of pregnancy is 80. c/ Relates to period January 1965 to March 1966. d/ The total is more than the sum of male and female because break-up by sex is not available for 4,074 aterili.ations. -unco,: 1. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 2. world Bank estimates. - 146 - Table 1.6 WPECTATIONS AND AClIEVEEMNTS OF FAKILY PLANNING PhOCRAM IN 1979/80 (April - Nove-ber 1979) (in thoo.aoda) Strtili-tion- I.U.D. I .ertiona Ulers of Co-v-ntiooal Contra..ptive. Epect- t achieve-ent Expect- I achievement ExPect- t achievOmt 9.T.P etien Achieveent of proportional ation Achiev_nt of proportional . tio Achievement of proportional Achievemnt (12 onth.) (Aprll--oveb-er) xpctetion (12 onth.) (April-November) onpeotation (12 otbth.) (April-Noveber) expectation (April-November) Andhre Prodeah 284.0 125.5 66.3 57.0 8.7 22.9 102.0 32.2 47.4 6.6 Ano 67.0 13.9 31.0 18.0 5.0 42.1 32.2 17.1 79.8 4.9 3ihbr 280.0 33.2 17.8 84.0 7.3 13.0 150.2 58.8 58.7 4.2 G.jarct 188.0 105.2 83.9 57.0 21.5 56.5 196.0 166.2 127.2 11.9 Iiry.n. 38.0 13.7 54.0 26.0 15.1 86.9 125.0 97.4 116.9 0.1 kimhol Predeeh 18.0 3.8 31.6 7.0 3.5 75.5 11.0 7.2 102.2 1.6 J Ue 6 Keajair 26.0 3.5 20.0 12.0 2.4 29.4 14.1 5.1 54.3 0.1 Karontaka 166.0 76.2 68.8 67.0 30.7 60.6 79.4 74.8 141.3 9.0 Karol. 117.0 57.9 74.3 32.0 8.5 39.7 55.9 18.1 48.5 7.9 M.dhyn Prodonh 191.0 68.5 53.8 58.0 11.0 28.6 102.2 60.8 89.2 5.5 Mh-rshtra 246.0 211.4 128.9 66.0 15.9 36.1 128.0 105.8 k/ 141.7 21.0 Menipor 6.0 1.2 31.1 2.6 1.1 61.9 3.1 1.6 73.5 0.3 Mlegheley 6.0 0.1 */ 3.3 1.8 0.1 a/ 16.6 3.3 0.5 .1 27.3 0.3 Negelood - 0.1 - n.e. - - 0.5 Orieaa 133.0 51.1 57.6 40.0 9.4 35.1 48.0 41.5 129.8 6.2 PUnjab 65.0 14.1 32.6 44.0 21.4 73.1 122.0 100.7 123.8 5.9 Ratjthan 138.0 20.2 21.9 62.0 15.1 36.6 79.0 104.6 198.5 5.9 Tal Ned. 282.0 80.0 42.6 35.0 19.5 34.3 101.2 71.0 105.3 18.1 Tripor. 8.0 0.5 8.9 2.5 0.4 21.0 4.4 1.0 66.1 0.8 Ottar Predesh 472.0 25.6 8.1 318.0 131.2 61.9 295.0 286.3 145.6 51.0 Woat eeog-l 221.0 76.2 51.7 67.0 7.5 16.9 118.3 69.3 87.9 7.1 A 68 Nalondo 0.9 0.2 28.7 0.5 0.3 87.1 0.5 0.2 66.3 0.2 Arcoxchbl Prodeah 2.5 0.1 3.5 0.8 0.3 49.6 1.4 0.2 26,3 0.2 Ch ndigach 2.0 0.0 59.3 1.8 2.4 200.8 7.0 6.7 143.3 1.3 D 6 N o-neli 0.5 0.2 57.4 0.1 n.o. 6.0 0.5 0.4 119.4 - Delhi 25.0 7.5 45.2 23.0 18.0 117.4 135.0 137.6 152. 90.5 a,o --xn 6 Din 6.0 1.5 37.3 1.4 0.3 34.7 2.7 1.3 71.8 0.6 L.kohadveep 0.2 n-.. 12.0 0.1 0.0. 3.0 0.3 0.1 67.0 NiMor 1.6 0.9 86.6 1.0 0.3 71.7 1.1 0.8 112.1 0.1 Pondicherry 3.1 2.6 127.8 1.3 0.7 86.3 1.3 1.1 131.4 0.9 Miniatry of Defense 20.0 10.8 80.7 5.0 3.8 113.3 41.0 59.7 218.5 1.9 Miniatry of Railnxye 35.0 5.5 23.6 7.0 1.7 37.4 14P.0 171.6 181.2 1.5 Coemercial diatnihbtion - - - - 2,900.0 937.5 48.5 Othbre 0.3 0.2 - - Ail-India 3.049.1 1.012.2 49.8 1.148.9 363.8 47.5 5.003.1 2.638.7 79-1 184.8 */ Fig.r.. rolete to April-September 1979. bI/ Figree opto Novonber 1979. enclding figu-no for September 1979. Sonrco: Miniotry of RecIth and Fenily Welfare. - 147 - Table 1.7 EMPLOYMENT IN THE ORGANIZE SECTOR - BY INDUSTRY (in thousands) As at the Agricolture, Mining Transport Trade End of the Hunting, Porestry & Public & & All Activities Fiscal Year and Fishing Quarrying Manufacturing COnstruction Utilities Comounication Comcerce Services Total 1960/61 Public Sector 180 129 369 602 224 1,725 94 3,427 7,050 Private Sector a/ 670 550 3,020 240 40 80 160 280 5,040 Total 850 679 3,389 842 264 1.805 254 4.007 122090 1965/66 Public Sector 227 160 670 766 303 2,094 155 5,004 9,379 Private Sector al 903 507 3,858 254 42 123 330 796 6,813 Total 1.130 667 4,528 1,020 345 2,217 485 S,800 16.192 1968/69 Public Sector 261 174 757 788 369 2,159 184 5,334 10,027 Private Sector h/ 813 422 3,772 154 44 108 369 922 6,604 Total 1,074 596 4.530 942 413 2,267 553 6.256 16.630 1970/71 Public Sector 264 177 782 797 402 2,189 288 5,475 10,374 Private Sector _/ 814 429 3,900 152 44 101 293 963 6,696 Total 1,078 606 4,882 949 446 2,290 581 6.438 17,070 1973/74 Public Sector 324 606 1,027 997 537 2,313 445 6,237 12,486 Private Sector b/ 805 134 4,179 121 42 77 310 1,126 6,794 Total 1.129 740 5,206 1,118 579 2,390 755 7.363 19,280 1975/76 c/ Public Sector 401 719 1,113 992 536 2,418 546 6,639 13,363 Private Sector b/ 827 132 4,158 94 35 74 470 1,055 6,844 Total 1,228 851 5,271 1,086 571 2,491 1,016 7,694 20,207 1976/77 Public Sector 476 757 1,226 1,009 563 2,467 610 6,769 13,877 Private Sector bt 838 130 4,165 83 35 71 461 1,086 6,867 Total 1,314 887 5,391 1,092 598 2,538 1,071 7,855 20.74 1977/78 Public Sector 628 758 1,355 998 599 2,520 663 6,918 14,441 Private Sector b/ 853 127 4,321 83 34 61 454 1,110 7,043 Total 1482 885 58677 633 2.581 1,118 8,028 21,48 1978/79 Public Sector 776 771 1,412 1,031 636 2,590 745 7,022 14,984 Private Sector b/ 845 125 4,427 83 34 71 480 1,137 7,202 Total 1621 896 5,839 1,114 670 2,661 1,225 8,159 22,186 a/ Establishments of 25 workers and over. Reporting is compulsory. bt Includes employment in establishments of 10 workers and over. Reporting for the category 10-25 workers is on a voluntary basis, and the extent of coverage is not knowa. c/ Data from 1975/76 onwards is based on National Industrial Classification. 1970 and is not exactly comparable with the earlier years. Source, Ministry of Labour, Director General of Employment & Training, - 148 - Table 1.8 DISTURIUTION OF PERSONS AMID FIVE AND 4aO BY USUL ACTIVITY STAS Rural Urban All-India Hale Female Total ItelA Fmale Total Male Fmale Tota I Persons in Labor Force 63.84 37.53 50.93 57.09 15.53 37.61 62.38 33.19 48.37 a. Working in own farm 24.87 4.38 14.82 2.16 0.60 1.43 19.96 3.63 12.12 b. Working in household non-farm enterprise/profession 5.88 1.96 3.96 16.11 3.15 10.04 8.08 2.19 5.26 c. Working in household farm as helper 10.24 16.15 13.14 0.77 1.31 1.02 8.19 13.22 10.60 d. Working in non-form household enterprise as helper 1.08 1.71 1.39 3.37 2.46 2.94 1.57 1.86 1.71 e. Working as regular salaried eeployee/ wage laborer in farm 4.21 0.79 2.53 0.60 0.14 0.38 3.43 0.66 2.10 f. Working as regular salaried employee/ wage laborer in non-farm enterprise/profession 3.49 0.74 2.14 28.34 4.18 17.02 8.85 1.42 5.28 g. Working as casual wage laborer 14.07 11.80 12.95 5.74 3.69 4.78 12.27 10.20 11.27 II Not working but seeking and available for work - unemloved 0.75 0.18 0.47 2.87 1.00 l9 1.20 0.34 0.79 III Not in Labor Force 35.41 62.29 48.60 SAM 83.47 60.40 36,40 66.46 50.83 IV Total Population 100.00 100.00 100.00 100. 100.00 100.00 100.00 a/ For the period October 1972 - September 1973. Source: The National Sample Survey, 27th Round (1972-73), Provisioral Results on Mwlovwnt-Unemlogint Survey, October 1977. - 149 - Table 1.9 a/ STATEWISE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY CURRENT ACTIVITY STATUS (.) Rural Urban Total STATES Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Andhra Pradesh 2.8 4.6 3.7 5.2 2.6 3.9 3.3 4.2 3.7 Assam 0.9 0.2 0.6 1.4 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.6 Bihar 2.4 2.0 2.2 3.9 0.8 2.5 2.6 1.9 2.2 Gujarat 1.2 1.0 1.1 2.7 0.6 1.7 1.6 0.9 1.3 Haryana 1.5 0.3 0.9 3.2 1.0 2.2 1.8 0.4 1.2 Himachal Pradesh 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.7 1.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 Karnataka 2.0 2.4 2.2 3.8 1.7 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.3 Kerala 6.0 4.1 5.0 8.0 4.1 6.0 6.3 4.1 5.2 Madhya Pradesh 1.0 1.3 1.2 2.4 0.8 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 Maharashtra 1.7 2.1 1.9 3.8 1.8 2.9 2.4 2.0 2.2 Meghalaya - - - 1.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 - 0.6 Orissa 2.5 3.3 2.9 3.1 1.8 2.5 2.6 3.2 2.8 Punjab 1.4 0.3 0.9 2.3 1.0 1.7 1.6 0.5 1.1 Rajasthan 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.7 0.8 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.8 Tamil Nadu 2.8 2.8 2.8 4.5 1.9 3.2 3.3 2.5 2.9 Uttar Pradesh 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.8 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.9 West Bengal 2.1 1.3 1.8 4.8 1.6 3.4 2.9 1.4 2.2 Chandigarh - - - 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 Delhi 0.8 - 0.4 2.2 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.4 1.7 Goa 3.9 9.1 6.3 4.6 0.7 2.6 4.1 3.9 5.3 Pondicherry 2.9 3.9 3.4 4.8 2.2 3.5 3.7 3.1 3.5 Jammu & Kashmir 4.7 0.9 2.8 2.0 0.6 1.4 4.2 0.8 2.5 Manipur 1.8 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.8 1.7 0.8 1.2 Tripura 0.9 0.5 0.7 3.6 2.1 2.9 1.2 0.6 0.9 All-India 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.6 1.4 2.6 2.3 1.8 2.1 a/ Person-weeks seeking and/or available for work as a percentage of total person-weeks in the labor force, for the period October 1972 to September 1973. Source: National Sample Survey, 27th Round (1972-73), Provisional Results on Emiloyment-Unemployment Survey, October 1977. - 150 - Table 1.10 EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE STATISTICS (At end of year) (Monthly average in thousands) Applicants Employers Vacancies on register using notified by Exchanges (0008) Registrants exchanges employers Placements 1951 126 329 115 6 41 35 1956 143 759 139 5 25 16 1961 325 1,833 269 10 59 34 1966 396 2,622 323 13 71 42 1968 405 3,012 337 12 60 35 1970 426 3,726 376 13 62 37 1971 434 4,602 428 13 68 42 1972 446 5,928 486 13 72 42 1973 461 7,714 512 13 73 43 1974 475 8,378 431 11 56 33 1975 496 8,917 455 11 57 34 1976 517 9,772 468 13 70 41 1977 528 10,924 444 12 67 38 1978 535 12,678 512 13 69 38 1979 a/ 543 13,886 512 14 73 39 a/ For the period January to July, 1979. Source: Ministry of Labour, Labour Bureau, Simla, Indian Labour Journal. - 151 - Table 1.11 (a) NUMBER OF INDUSTRIAL DISPUTES, WORKERS INVOLVED AND MANDAYS LOST - BY PUBLIC & PRIVATE SECTORS Disputes Workers Involved Mandays Lost (in thousands) (in thousands) Year Public Private Total Public Private Total Public Private Total 1961 - - 1,357 - - 512 212 4,707 4,919 1962 177 1,314 1,491 128 577 705 532 5,588 6,121 1963 117 1,354 1,471 68 495 563 277 2,991 3,269 1964 254 1,897 2,151 154 849 1,003 747 6,977 7,725 1965 198 1,637 1,835 102 889 991 704 5,766 6,470 1966 345 2,211 2,556 240 1,170 1,410 1,277 12,570 13,846 1967 441 2,374 2,815 368 1,123 1,490 2,540 14,608 17,148 1968 386 2,390 2,776 434 1,236 1,669 1,972 15,272 17,244 1969 389 2,238 2,627 337 1,490 1,827 1,424 17,624 19,048 1970 446 2,443 2,889 439 1,389 1,828 2,062 18,501 20,563 1971 385 2,367 2,752 364 1,252 1,615 2,253 14,292 16,546 1972 538 2,705 3,243 416 1,321 1,738 3,346 17,198 20,544 1973 714 2,656 3,370 789 1,757 2,546 3,392 17,234 20,626 1974 597 2,341 2,938 1,369 1,485 2,855 13,088 27,174 40,262 1975 362 1,581 1,943 321 822 1,143 2,145 19,756 21,901 1976 153 1,306 1,459 148 589 737 872 11,874 12,746 1977 663 2,454 3,117 950 1,244 2,193 4,471 20,849 25,320 1978 947 2,240 3,187 926 990 19,156 4,348 23,990 28,340 1979 a/ 901 1,435 2,336 1,293 1,203 24,956 5,099 27,169 32,268 a/ Provisional figures for January to October, 1979. Source: Ministry of Labour, Labour Bureau, Simla, - 152 - Table 1.11 (b) MANDAYS LOST - BY STATES 1974 - 1979 (in thousands) State 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 (Jan - Oct) Andhra Pradesh 646 418 112 694 619 231 Assam 1,714 103 6 11 56 30 Bihar 2,181 764 121 1,706 1,045 961 Gujarat 944 191 43 303 445 497 Haryana 218 23 25 584 620 141 Himachal Pradesh 2 - - 4 9 0.5 Jammu & Kashmir 3 0.6 - 7 5 - Karnataka 423 684 275 722 576 373 Kerala 3,647 501 68 2,111 2,055 2,040 Madhya Pradesh 429 102 23 1,069 485 635 Maharashtra 10,488 1,399 564 3,093 3,716 1,980 Manipur 5 - - 1 0.6 3 Orissa 255 292 30 224 176 76 Punjab 57 90 38 294 217 68 Rajasthan 723 117 19 1,006 570 101 Tamil Nadu 3,186 1,851 1,076 2,911 2,365 7,675 Tripura 12 0.7 - 2 1 n.a, Uttar Pradesh 1,507 1,528 1,205 1,603 2,717 964 West Bengal 13,126 13,684 9,067 8,489 12,045 15,657 Union Territories 697 154 73 230 617 827 TOTAL ALL-INDIA 40.262 21.901 12.746 25,320 28,340 32.268 a/ Provisional. Source: Labour Bureau, Simla. - 153 - Table 1.11 (c) MANDAYS LOST - BY INDUSTRIAL GROUPS 1974-1979 (in thousands) 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 (Jan-Oct) I AGRICULTURE. HUNTING & FORESTRY 2.877 72 52 622 913 439 Of which: Tea (1,753) (39) (36) (161) (269) (n.a.) II MINING & QUARRYING 1.508 824 311 1.821 1.588 1.656 Of which: Coal (765) (202) (74) (779) (784) (1,121) III MANUFACTURING 24.717 19,682 11,922 20.275 23.115 28.704 Food Products 537 319 157 492 685 n.a. Beverages 1,180 331 173 843 47 n.a. Cotton Textiles 7,792 3,273 2,830 3,623 3,537 n.a. Woollen & Synthetics 491 807 307 609 553 n.a. Jute & Mesta 5,698 10,181 4,210 4,591 4,981 n.a. Other Textiles 764 166 24 89 716 n.a. Wood Products 80 49 10 128 103 n.a. Paper Products 445 229 128 577 996 n.a. Leather Products 226 26 362 130 1,190 n.a. Rubber Products 258 183 168 853 444 n.a. Chemical Products 443 758 76 1,096 758 n.a. Non-Metallic Minerals 1,463 886 1,522 700 1,475 n.a. Basic Metals & Alloys 1,914 472 1,023 2,442 2,240 n.a. Metal Products 690 792 119 579 377 n.a. Non-Electrical Machinery 1,307 430 157 1,322 2,280 n.a. Electrical Machinery 837 545 556 840 1,408 n.a, Transport Equipments 484 185 51 1,187 1,153 n.ea. Other Manufacturing 110 49 49 175 173 n.a. IV ELECTRICITY. GAS & WATER 106 22 5 488 241 47 V CONSTRUCTION 371 202 16 317 158 60 VI WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE 136 201 33 71 43 142 VII TRANSPORT & COMMUNICATION 9.752 669 66 461 931 556 VIII FINANCING & INSURANCE 88 20 - 430 614 281 IX COMMUNITY SERVICES 389 394 180 727 430 192 X ALL OTHER ACTIVITIES 318 213 161 108 307 191 GRAND TOTAL 40,262 22.300 12a746 25,320 28.340 32,268 a/ The revised sectoral break-up is not available for 1975. The unadjusted total is presented here, while the revised total is presented in Tables 1.11 (a) & (b). b/ Provisional. Source: Labour Bureau, Simla. - 154 - Table 1.12 EDUCATION - PROGRESS OF ENROLMENT (Miltion persons) Primary Level (Class I - V) Middle Level (Classes VI - VIII) Secondary Level (Classes IX - XI) Age 6 - 11 Years Age 11 - 14 Years Se 14 - 17 Years University - Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total 1950/51 13.8 5.4 19.2 2.6 0.5 3.1 1.1 0.2 1.3 0.3 1955/56 17.5 7.7 25.2 3.4 0.9 4.3 1.5 0.4 1.9 0.6 1960/61 23.6 11.4 35.0 5.1 1.6 6.7 2.3 0.5 2.8 0.8 1965/66 32.2 18.3 50.5 9.7 2.8 12.5 3.9 1.2 5.1 1.3 1968/69 34.2 20.2 54.4 9.0 3.5 -12.5 4.6 1.5 6.1 1.7 1970/71 35.7 21.3 57.0 9.4 3.9 13.3 4.9 1.7 6.6 2.4 1973/74 39.2 24.0 63.2 10.2 4.5 14.7 5.4 2.1 7.5 3.2 1974/75 40.3 24.6 64.9 10.6 4.8 15.4 5.3 2.1 7.4 3.1 1975/76 40.7 25.0 65.7 11.0 5.0 16.0 5.3 2.1 7.4 3.1 1976/77 42.7 26.4 67.5 11.4 5.3 16.7 5.5 2.1 7.6 3.6 1977/78 43.2 26.9 70.1 12.0 5.7 17.7 6.1 2.5 8.6 3.0 1978/79 44.0 28.2 72.2 12.1 6.0 18.1 5.9 2.4 8.3 4.0 1979/80 (Target) 45.2 30.0 75.2 12.6 6.6 19.2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Enrolment as percentage of the correspoeding age group: a/ 1950/51 60.6 24.8 43.1 20.6 4.6 12.9 8.7 1.5 5.3 1970/71 92.6 59.1 76.4 46.5 20.8 34.2 27.1 10.2 19.0 1975/76 95.7 62.0 79.3 47.0 23.3 35.6 25.1 10.6 18.2 1977/78 cl 99.3 65.4 82.8 49.7 25.3 37.9 21.2 9.4 15.5 1978/79 c/ 100.2 67.8 84.5 49.4 26.0 38.0 n.a. n.a, n.;. a/ Enrolment as percentage of corresponding age groap may emceed 100 in some instances because of the presence of children both younger and older than indicated in the age group for these classes. b/ Refers to general education in commserce, arts & science cousies in the universities. Excludes engineering, medicine and technical courses conducted in autonomous institutions. In September 1977 there were 74,624 students enrolled in medical colleges and 92,115 in engineering sciences. c/ Provisional. Source: Ministry of Education. - 155 - Table 1.13 STATEWISE RATIOS OF DOCTORS AND HOSPITAL BEDS TO POPULATION - 1979 Population Per State/Union Territory Doctor Hospital Bed Andhra Pradesh 2,789 b/ 1,484 a/ Assam f/ 2,502 c/ 1,900 Bihar 4,666 b/ 2,916 a/ Gujarat 2,628 b/ 1,041 a/ Haryana 5,776 d/ 1,684 Himachal Pradesh 6,988 d/ 1,120 Jammu & Kashmir 3,709 d/ 1,324 a/ Karnataka 4,869 e/ 1,261 Kerala 2,493 576 Madhya Pradesh 6,825 b/ 3,310 Maharashtra 1,785 c/ 866 Manipur 3,902 1,166 Meghalaya 6,068 882 Nagaland 3,038 556 Orissa 3,678 b/ 2,502 Punjab 2,024 b/ 1,480 Rajasthan 4,362 b/ 1,897 Sikkim 3,103 602 Tamil Nadu 3,408 c/ 1,111 b/ Tripura 5,531 1,655 Uttar Pradesh 5,084 c/ 2,255 West Bengal 1,732 c/ 1,168 Andaman & Nicobar Islands 2,078 239 Arunachal Pradesh 2,962 691 Chandigarh 810 b/ 263 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 5,667 2,931 Delhi 1,400 d/ 454 Goa, Daman & Diu 1,141 357 Lakshadweep 2,846 740 Pondicherry 2,549 262 All-India 3,622 1,392 a/ Relates to 1978 b/ Relates to 1977 c/ Relates to 1976 d/ Relates to 1975 e/ Relates to 1972 f/ Includes Mizoram. Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, Pocket Book of Health Statistics of India, 1979. - 156 - Table 2.1 (a) NATIONAL INCOME AND SOME RELATED AGGREGATES (at current prices - in Rs billion) NNP at Consumption of GNP at Factor Income GDP at Indirect Taxes GDP at Year Factor Cost Fixed Capital Factor Cost Payments Factor Cost less Subsidies Market Prices 1950/51 86.99 3.24 90.23 0.41 90.64 5.00 95.64 1951/52 90.37 3.59 93.96 0.35 94.31 5.90 100.21 1952/53 88.25 3.89 92.14 0.25 92.39 5.20 97.59 1953/54 94.80 3.92 98.72 0.19 98.91 5.60 104.51 1954/ax 86.06 4.29 90.35 0.29 90.64 6.20 96.84 1955/56 91.28 4.48 95.71 0.10 95.81 6.80 102.61 1956/57 105.53 4.86 110.39 0.17 110.46 7.70 118.16 1957/58 105.40 5.36 110.76 0.20 110.96 8.90 119.86 1958/59 118.26 6.27 124.53 0.35 124.88 9.50 134.38 1959/60 122.11 6.61 128.72 0.57 129.29 10.50 139.79 1960/61 132.63 7.36 139.99 0.72 140.71 9.47 150.18 1961/62 139.87 8.12 147.99 0.98 148.97 10.80 159.77 1962/63 147.95 9.32 157.27 1.08 158.35 12.64 170.99 1963/64 169.77 10.01 179.78 1.12 180.90 15.66 196.56 1964/65 200.01 11.12 211.13 1.47 212.60 17.84 230.44 1965/66 206.37 12.29 218.66 1.64 220.30 20.82 241.12 1966/67 238.48 14.02 252.50 2.30 254.80 21.82 276.62 1967/68 280.54 15.58 296.12 2.58 298.70 24.24 322.94 1968/69 286.07 16.86 302.93 2.55 305.48 27.31 332.79 1'69/70 316.06 19.15 335.21 2.71 337.92 30.59 368.51 1970/71 343.68 22.14 365.82 2.84 368.66 35.27 403.93 1971/72 367.45 24.02 391.47 2.91 394.38 40.93 435.31 1972/73 404.22 26.71 430.93 3.02 433.95 46.24 480.19 1973/74 506.65 30.30 536.95 3.25 540.20 51.68 591.88 1974/75 593.15 35.98 629.13 2.91 632.04 66.59 698.63 1975/76 616.09 40.83 656.92 2.55 659.47 79.33 738.80 1976/77 668.85 44.96 713.81 2.35 716.16 85.32 801.48 1977/78 747.94 49.82 797.76 2.64 800.40 91.08 891.48 1978/79 800.90 55.65 856.55 2.64 859.19 104.24 963.43 Sources: CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1948/49 - 1962/63, February 1964; 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976; 1970/71 - 1976/77, January 1979; and Fress Note dated February 7, 1980. - 157 - Table 2.1 (b) NATIONAL INCOME AND SOME RELATED AGGREGATES (at 1970/71 prices - in Rs billion) NNP at Consumption of GNP at Factor Income GDP at Indirect Taxes GDP at Year Factor Cost Fixed Capital Factor Cost Payments Factor Cost less Subsidies Market Prices 1950/51 167.31 7.38 174.69 0.67 175.36 9.67 185.03 1951/52 170.86 8.05 178.41 0.42 178.83 11.19 190.02 1952/53 176.99 7.84 184.83 0.34 185.17 10.42 195.59 1953/54 188.54 8.06 196.60 0.28 196.88 11.15 208.03 1954/55 193.28 8.62 201.90 0.43 202.23 13.83 216.06 1955/56 199.53 9.01 208.54 0.16 208.70 14.81 223.51 1956/57 210.46 9.42 219.88 0.25 220.13 15.35 235.48 1957/58 205.87 10.06 215.93 0.38 216.31 17.35 233.66 1958/59 223.29 10.84 234.13 0.52 234.65 17.85 252.50 1959/60 226.76 11.26 238.02 0.92 238.94 19.40 258.34 1960/61 242.50 11.74 254.24 1.10 255.34 16.02 271.36 1961/62 250.39 12.54 262.93 1.47 264.40 18.15 282.55 1962/63 254.14 14.20 268.34 1.69 270.03 20.94 290.97 1963/64 267.46 14.64 282.10 1.70 283.80 24.88 308.68 1964/65 288.08 15.91 303.99 2.18 306.17 26.87 333.04 1965/66 271.03 16.88 287.91 2.32 290.23 29.68 319.91 1966/67 272.98 17.83 290.81 2.26 293.07 25.45 318.52 1967/68 297.15 18.75 315.90 2.78 318.68 26.86 345.54 1968/69 305.13 19.47 324.60 2.65 327.25 30.00 357.25 1969/70 324.08 21.10 345.18 2.84 348.02 30.48 378.50 1970/71 343.68 22.14 365.82 2.84 368.66 35.27 403.93 1971/72 348.65 22.87 371.52 3.13 374.65 38.83 413.48 1972/73 343.34 24.09 367.43 3.11 370.54 39.91 410.45 1973/74 361.34 24.51 385.85 2.36 388.21 37.24 425.45 1974/75 365.04 23.88 388.92 1.22 390.14 36.37 426.51 1975/76 398.49 25.20 423.69 0.91 424.60 40.23 464.83 1976/77 405.34 26.29 431.63 0.85 432.48 41.37 473.85 1977/78 438.57 27.87 466.44 1.06 467.50 42.90 510.40 1978/79 456.37 29.70 486.07 1.02 487.09 48.24 535.33 Note: Indirect taxes less subsidies at 1970/71 prices for the period 1950/51 to 1959/60 have been obtained by deflating the data at current prices with the implicit price deflator of gross domestic product at factor-cost, and for the period 1960/61 to 1969/70, the data available at 1960/61 prices have been converted into 1970/71 prices. Sources: CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976; 1970/71 - 1976/77, January 1979; and Press Note dated Februsry 7, 1980. - 158 - Table 2.2 (a) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT FACTOR COST BY INDUSTRY OF ORIGIN (at current prices - in Rs billion) Sectar 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 I Agricultrre 45.41 42.16 67.51 97.98 141.46 167.78 258.91 261.80 275.75 313.26 321.29 2 Forestry & Logging 10.63 0.67 1.76 3.20 3.56 4.08 5.14 7.58 8.38 9.45 11.33 3 Fishing 0.36 0.58 0.82 1.30 2.04 2.45 3.93 5.55 6.47 6.70 8.24 4 Miing & Quarrying 0.63 0.96 1.44 2.40 3.24 3.84 4.96 9.72 10.24 11.05 11.43 Sub-total: Primary Sector 47.03 44.37 71.53 104.88 150.30 178.15 272.94 284.65 300.84 340.46 352.29 5 Manufacturing 13.87 16.76 19.94 33.37 41.72 53.15 77.19 106.16 116.02 129.33 144.56 5.1 Registered (5.26) (7.47) (11.89) (21.15) (26.15) (34.84) (50.24) (68.15) (75.47) (83.01) (93.08) 5.2 Unregistered (8.61) (9.29) ( 8.05) (12.22) (15,57) (18.31) (26.95) (38.01) (40.55) (46.32) (51.48) 6 Construction 3.80 3.83 6.41 11.05 16.52 19.48 23.59 34.26 41.05 45.44 49.84 7 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 0.27 0.38 0.86 1.81 3.13 4.15 5.20 8.42 10.77 11.66 14.46 Sub-total: Secondary Sector 17.94 20.97 27.21 46.23 61.37 76.78 105.98 148.84 167.84 186.43 208.86 8 Transpurt, Storage and C-onuuication 3.98 4.98 6.87 11.11 15.91 18.75 25.28 35.35 39.40 41.61 44.10 8.1 Rail-ways (1.72) (2.39) (3.02) (4.64) (5.49) ( 5.97) ( 5.84) ( 8.88) (11.00) (11.27) (10.96) 9.2 Other Transport & Storage (1.90) (2.11) (3.20) (5.29) (8.62) (10.40) (16.31) (22.38) (22.96) (24.36) (26.39) 8.3 Comunication (0.36) (0.48) (0.65) (1.18) (1.80) ( 2.38) ( 3.13) ( 4.09) ( 5.44) ( 5.98) ( 6.75) 9 Trade, Hotels & Restaurants 7.37 8.05 13.27 22.87 31.71 40.71 61,20 86.35 91.78 103.91 111.19 10 Banking and Insurance 0.63 0.86 1.63 3.52 4.86 6.56 10.99 17.83 21.11 22.92 24.99 11 Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling & Business Services 3.90 4.41 6.06 8.50 10.08 14.58 19.09 23.36 26.14 30.75 35.93 12 Public Administration & Defense 4.08 5.46 5.38 9.89 13.70 16.35 22.21 32.37 34.55 36.86 41.43 13 Other Services 5.71 6.71 8.76 13.30 17.55 16.78 22.51 30.72 34.50 37.46 40.40 Sub-total: Tertiary Sector 25.67 30.47 41.97 69.19 93.81 113.73 161.28 225.98 247.48 273.51 298.04 TOTAL: GOP at Factor Cost 90.64 95.81 140.71 220.30 305.49 368.66 540.20 659.47 716.16 800.40 859.19 a/ Sectoral allocation of total GDP has been estimated from proportions given in CSO, Estimates of National Income, 1948/49 to 1962/63, February 1964. Sources: CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976; 1970/71 - 1976/77, January 1979; Press Note dated January 8, 1979; and Press Note dated February 7. 1980. Table 2.2 (b( GROSS DOMESTIC PRO:OUCT AT FACTOR COST BY INIXSTRY OF ORIGIN (at 1970/71 prices - in Rs billion) Average Cor2ound Grot ae( e oIR Sector 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1971/74 1975/76 1~727 197/78 1978/79 1950/51 1970/79 - 1977 2(9nnm9 19 75/76 19/7 1 Agriculture 100.04 115.99 135.95 126.43 145.39 167.78 168.17 182.13 174.68 194.67 198.10 2.4 2.1 11.4 1.8 2 Forestry & Logging 2.13 2.19 2.68 3.71 3.71 4.08 4.21 4.96 5.54 5.61 5.87 3.4 4.7 1.3 4.6 3 Fishing 1.04 1.38 1.77 2.08 2.38 2.45 2.75 3.11 3.14 3.09 5.27 4.5 3.7 -1.6 5.8 4 Mining & Quarrying 1.32 1.67 2.38 3.37 3.58 3.84 4.20 5.06 4.95 5.12 5.15 5.5 3.7 3.4 o.6 Sub-total: Primary Sector 104.53 121.23 140.78 135259 155.06 178.15 179.33 195.26 188.31 _08.42 212.59 2.5 2.2 10.7 1.9 5 Manufacturing 17.50 23.09 31.35 44.56 46.78 53-15 59.72 62.81 67.31 71.67 77.06 5.2 4.8 6.5 7.5 5.1 Registered (9.55) (12.86) (18.58) (28.75) (29.20) (34.84) (38.96) (39.70) (43.25) (45.92) ,49.615 (5.9) (4.5) (6.2) (8.0) 5.2 Unregistered (7.95) (10.23) (12.77) (15.81) (17.58) (18.31) (20.76) (23.11) (24.06) (25.75) (27.45) (4.4) (5.2) (7.0) (6.6) 6 Construction 7.39 8.42 11.38 15.80 18.97 19.48 17.98 20.37 23.84 25.46 26.09 4.3 3.7 6.8 2.5 7 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 0.49 0.78 1.40 2.61 3.59 4.15 4.80 5.72 6.37 6.63 7.36 10.3 7.4 4.1 11.0 Sub-total: Secondary Sector 2S.58 32.29 44.51 62.97 9.54 76.78 82.50 89.50 97.52 103.76 110.1 5-2 47 6 64 6.5 8 Transport, Storage and Communication 6.35 8.08 11.03 14.99 17.29 18.75 21.68 24.45 25.37 26.50 27.22 5.6 4.8 4.5 2.7 8.1 Railways (2.56) (2.99) (4-14) (5.40) (5.84) ( 5.97) ( 6.09) (7.12) ( 7.64) 8.04 7.91 (4.2) (3.6) (5.2) (-1.6) 8.2 Other Transport & Storage (3.14) (4-19) (5.68) (7.73) (9.31) (10.40) (12.77) (14.19) (14.28) (14.81) (15.42) (6.2) (5.0) (3.7) ( 4.1) 8.3 Communication (0.65) (0.90) (1.21) (1.86) (2.14) ( 2.38) ( 2.82) ( 3.14) ( 3.45) ( 3.65) ( 3.89) (6.6) (6.3) (5.8) 9 Trade, Rotels & Restaurants 14.50 18.31 24.20 32.36 36.27 40.71 43.55 48.80 50.64 54.29 57.78 5.0 4.5 7.2 6.6 10 Banking and Insurance 1.60 2.44 3.34 4.65 5.39 6.56 7.78 8.41 10.13 11.36 13.29 6.9 9.2 12.1 17.0 11 Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling & Business Services 7.59 8.51 9.58 11.94 13.56 14.58 15.70 16.55 17.08 17.64 18.1R 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.1 12 Public Administration & Defense 4.75 5.52 7.69 11.76 13.85 16.35 19.81 22.49 23975 25.21 26.76 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.1 13 Other Services 10.66 12.32 14-59 15.97 16.49 16.78 17.86 19.14 19.68 20.25 20.96 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.5 Sub-total: Tertiary Sector 45.45 55.18 70.45 93.67 102.85 113.73 126.38 139.8 146.65 155.25 - 64-- 9 4.6 4 7S. 5.8 TOTAL: GDP at Factor Cost 175.36 208.70 55354 290.23 327.25 368.66 388.21 424.60 437.48 467.50 487.09 3- *35 8 .1 4_2 Sources: CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1970/71 - 1976/77, January 1979; and Press Note dated February 7, 1980. - 160 - Table 2.3 GROSS SAVINGS AND INVREMINT (in Ru billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 I Gro8s Donestic Savings (at current prices) Ho..eholds n.a. n.a. 13.64 25.86 34.84 48.88 79.13 105.24 128.75 147.45 172.55 Private Corporate and Cooperatives n.a. n.a. 2.74 3.98 4.07 6.56 10.63 10.64 10.59 11.41 12.43 Public Sector n.a. n.a. 4.25 8.07 8.06 12.54 18.07 36.60 44.48 44.87 45.69 Tota1 9.75 14.30 20.63 37.91 46.97 67.98 107.83 152.48 183.82 203.73 230.67 LI Foreign Savings - 0.21 0.39 4.81 5.99 4.16 3.94 3.92 - 1.17 -13.09 - 5.28 1.38 III Total Investible Resources (I + II) 9.54 14.69 25_4 43.90 51.13 71.92 111.75 151.31 170.73 198.45 232.85 IV Errors & Oenissio -/ 1.76 - 0.53 0.39 0.37 4.27 1.66 - 3.61 14.95 11.78 - 4.16 -10.64 V Total Gross Capital Fornation (III + IV) 11.30 14.16 25.83 44.27 55.40 73.58 108.14 166.26 182.51 194.29 221.41 VI Changes In Stocks 1.60 1.33 4.27 2.95 1.64 10.34 19.76 31.33 24.77 20.85 21.99 VII Total Gres. Fixed Capital For=ation (V - VI) 9.70 12.83 21.56 41.32 53.76 63.24 88.38 134.93 157.74 173.44 199.42 A. By Type cf Asset Construction 7.29 8.10 13.37 23.60 33.36 39.78 48.38 76.07 89.64 99.25 111.37 Machisery A Equipnnnt 2.41 4.73 8.19 17.72 20.40 23.46 40.00 58.86 68.10 74.19 88.05 8. By SDctor Public Sector 2.24 5.33 10.55 20.46 21.11 23.94 40.11 55.13 70.60 76.45 88.59 of which: Adninistration (n.-.) (n.a.) (7.16) (12.57) (12.58) (14.16) (25.22) (28.02) (35.13) (38.98) s.c. Non-Dept. Enterprises (n.-.) (n.u.) (3.39) ( 7.89) ( 8.53) ( 9.78) (14.89) (27.11) (35.47) (37.47) u.s. Priv-te Sector 7.46 7.50 11.01 20.86 32.65 39.30 48.27 79.80 87.14 96.99 110.83 of which: Privete pae (n.a.) (..) (3.26) ( 3.98) ( 3.56) ( 6.20) (10.63) (20.02) (14.84) (16.09) (15.28) Households (n.a.) (na.) (7.75) (16.88) (29.09) (33.10) (37.64) (59.78) (72.30) (80.90) (95.55) (at 1970/71 prices) I Total Incestible R-esoures 23.74 31.26 43.19 59.35 57.29 71.92 86.16 85.85 95.20 107.90 117.85 II Errore & Ocissions 9 2.98 - 0.90 0.66 0.51 4.82 1.66 - 2.78 8.48 6.57 - 2.26 - 5.40 III Total Gcc.. Capital Fonation (I + II) 26.72 30.36 43.85 59.86 62.11 73.58 83.38 94.33 101.77 105.64 112.45 IV Changes In Stuks 3.34 3.19 7.70 4.22 1.79 10.34 14.31 18.18 14.08 11.52 11.17 V Tetal Gress Fined Capital Fnes.stinn(lII - IV) 23.38 27.17 36.15 55.64 60.32 63.24 69.07 76.15 87.69 94.12 101.28 A. By Type cf Asset Construction 16.43 17.54 23.02 32.40 38.26 39.78 36.28 43.08 49.30 52.69 56.56 Machinery & Equipment 6.95 9.63 13.11 23.24 22.06 23.46 32.79 33.07 38.39 41.43 44.72 B. By Sector Public Sector 5.40 11.40 17.72 27.68 23.68 23.94 31.35 31.11 39.25 41.49 44.99 of which: Admlnistratlen (n.a.) (n.e.) (12.00) (17.00) (14.11) (14.16) (19.71) (15.81) (19.53) (21.15) s.c. Nos-Dept. Et-erprises (n...) (n.e.) ( 5.72) (10.68) ( 9.57) ( 9.78) (11.64) (15.30) (19.72) (20.33) s.c. Priv-te Sector 17.98 15.77 18.43 27.96 36.64 39.30 37.72 45.04 48.44 52.63 56.29 of which: Private Corporate (n.a.) (n.e.) ( 5.46) ( 5.33) ( 4.00) ( 6.20) ( 8.31) (11.30) ( 8.25) ( 8.73) ( 7.76) Beusehelds n... (s.1.) (12.97) (22.63) (32.64) (33.10) (29.41) (33.74) (40.19) (43.90) (48.53) Note: The ieplicit price deflater of total grass fised capital flrati-on has bhe used te esti-ate the setcoral distributioe In a11 the years, asd the asset-wise distribqtion Is 1978-79, at 1970/71 prices. E/ Otters & oninsio.s is the difference between the estimate of total invesrible reso brces esed en fisancial flows asd the esti-ate of tntal gross capital fetiatins based on physical flows. Sources :L CSO, National Aceousts Statistics, 1960/61 - 1972/73, Dis.agiegaced Tables, M-ach 1975; 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976; 1970/71 - 1976/77, January 1979: cOd Press Nute dated February 7, 1980. Additiumel details fur 1976/77 and 1977/78 hase bee. hbtaised directly fri CSO, Ne.. Delhi. 2. Wold Bask estimtes. - 161 - Table 2.4 DISFOSABLE INCOME AND ITS USE (in Rn billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965166 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 (at current pricen) Gross Domentic Product at Market Pricen 95.64 102.61 150.18 241.12 332.79 403.93 591.88 738.80 801.48 891.48 963.43 Factor Income Payments -/ - 0.28 - 0.06 - 0.58 - 1.47 - 2.41 - 2.54 - 2.92 - 2.15 - 1.99 - 2.24 - 2.24 Other Current Traisfers 0.40 0.40 0.28 0.79 1.28 1.23 1.92 5.28 7.39 10.23 9.30 b/ Disposable Income 95.76 102.95 150.50 240.44 331.66 402.62 590.88 741.93 806.88 899.47 970.49 Gross Domestic Savings 9.75 14.30 20.63 37.91 46.97 67.98 107.83 152.48 183.82 203.73 230.67 Final Consumption 98.30 102.60 130.54 208.24 292.92 334.55 481.07 600.86 629.90 708.72 767.55 of which: Private Consumption (92.70) (95.40) (119.68) (185.28) (262.42) (296.82) (430.40) (529.28) (548.80) (623.29) (671.45) Public Consumption ( 5.60) ( 7.20) ( 10.86) ( 22.96) ( 30.50) ( 37.73) ( 50.67) ( 71.58) ( 81.10) ( 85.43) ( 96.10) Statistical Discrepemcy -12.29 -13.95 - 0.67 - 5.71 - 8.23 0.09 1.98 -11.41 - 6.84 -12.98 -27.73 (at 1970/71 prices) Gross Domestic Product at Narket Pri-cs 185.03 223.51 271.36 319.91 357.25 403.93 425.45 464.83 473.85 510.40 535.33 Factor Income Payments / - 0.46 - 0.10 - 0.89 - 2.08 - 2.50 - 2.54 - 2.12 - 0.77 - 0.72 - 0.90 - 0.87 Other Curre-t Transfers 0.65 0.64 0.43 1.12 1.33 1.23 1.39 1.88 2.67 4.11 3.59 Disposable Income 185.22 224.05 270.90 318.95 356.08 402.62 424.72 465.94 475.80 513.61 538.05 Gross Domestic Savings 23.30 30.76 34.71 51.49 53.33 67.98 83.14 86.51 102.50 110.77 117.15 Final Consumption 185.69 223.65 237.40 275.03 311.59 334.55 340.16 386.60 377.33 410.25 436.27 of which: Private Consumption (175.11) (207.96) (215.24) (242.18) (278.11) (296.82) (309.78) (325.02) (331.89) (360.02) (378.45) Public Consumption ( 10.58) ( 15.69) ( 22.16) ( 32.85) ( 33.48) ( 37.73) ( 30.38) ( 61.58) ( 45.44) ( 50.23) ( 57.82) Statistical Discrepency -23.77 -30.36 - 1.21 - 7.57 - 8.84 0.09 1.42 - 7.17 - 4.03 - 7.41 -15.37 Note: Retained earnings of foreign companies and other current transfers have been deflated by the implicit price deflator of factor iancme payments. Statistical discrepencies have bees deflated by implicit price deflator of disposable income. The implicit price deflator of gross domestic capital formation in Table 2.6 (a) & (b) has bees used to deflate gross domestic savings. Pinal consumption is residual. The implicit price deflator of final consumption has been used to estimate private cor,ssuption in 1950/51 & 1955/56 at 1970/71 prices. / EIcludes retained earnings of foreign companien, which are assumed to be R. 40 billion in 1977/78 and 1978/79. b/ Rough estimate. Sources: 1. CSO, National Accounts Statistics, 1948/49 - 1962/63, February 1964; 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976; 19771 976/77, January 1979; and Press Note dated February 7, 1980. 2. CR0, Statistical Abstract of the Indian Union, 1961. 3. Statistical Appendia Table 2.1 (b). 4. World Bask estimates. - 162 - Table 2.5 AVAILABLE RESOURCES AND THEIR JSE (in R. billion) 1950/51 1955/56 19601/61 1965/66 1968/69 :970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 (at current prices) Disposable I.ncce 95.76 102.95 150.50 240.44 331.66 402.62 590.88 741.93 806.88 899.47 970.49 Foreign Renoseces - 1.31 0.40 4.23 6.14 4.55 3.58 4.64 7.58 0.99 12.50 13.97 Available Resoorces 94.45 103.35 154.73 246.58 336.21 406.20 595.52 749.51 807.87 911.97 984.46 Final Coo.sopti-o 98.30 102.60 130.54 208.24 292.92 334.55 481.07 600.86 629.90 708.72 767.55 Gross Flo-d Capital Formatio- 9.70 12.83 21.56 41.32 53.76 63.24 88.36 134.93 157.74 173.44 199.42 of ehich: Pablic Secto- (2.24) (5.33) (10.55) (20.46) (21.11) (23.94) (40.11) (55.13) (70.60) (76.45) (88.59) Private Corporate ( (7.46) ( (7.50) ( 3.26) ( 3.98) ( 3.56) ( 6.20) (10.63) (20.02) (14.84) (16.09) (15.28) Ho-sehold ( ( ( 7.75) (16.88) (29.09) (33.10) (37.64) (59.78) (72.30) (80.90) (95.55) Chasgo io Stocks 1.60 1.33 4.27 2.95 1.64 10.34 19.76 31.33 24.77 20.85 21.99 of which: Pablio Stocks (0.35) (-0.34) (0.87) (1.70) (0.56) (3.78) ( 8.04) (22.41) (14.41) (-0.19) ( 4.28) Private Stocks (1.25) ( 1.67) (3.40) (1.25) (1.08) (6.56) (11.72) ( 8.92) (10.36) (21.04) (17.71) Errors 4 Oeisoi.on (It Gross Capital Formation) - 1.76 0.53 - 0.39 - 0.37 - 4.27 - 1.66 3.61 - 14.95 -11.78 4.16 10.64 Chaoge io Foreign Exohange Reserves - 1.10 0.01 - 0.58 0.15 0.39 0.36 0.72 8.75 14.08 17.78 12.59 Statisioal Di-srepacy -12.29 -13.95 - 0.67 - 5.71 - 8.23 0.09 1.98 - 11.41 - 6.84 -12.98 -27.73 (at 1970/71 prices) Disposable Inoe 185.22 224.05 270.90 318.95 356.08 402.62 424.72 465.94 475.80 513.61 538.05 Foreign Resources - 3.13 0.86 7.12 8.34 5.17 3.58 3.58 4.30 0.55 6.80 7.09 Avoilable Resources 182.09 224.91 278.02 327.29 361.25 406.20 428.30 470.24 476.35 523.41 545.14 Final Consumption 185.69 223.65 237.40 275.03 311.59 334.55 340.16 386.60 377.33 410.25 436.27 Gross Fined Capital Formation 23.38 27.17 36.15 55.64 60.32 63.24 69.07 76.15 87.69 94.12 101.28 of chinh: Public Sector ( 5.40) (11.40) (17.72) (27.68) (23.68) (23.94) (31.35) (31.11) (39.25) (41.49) (44.99) Private Corporate ( (17.98) ( (15.77) ( 5.46) ( 5.33) ( 4.00) ( 6.20) ( 8.31) (11.30) ( 8.25) ( 8.73) ( 7.76) Hoosehold ( ( (12.97) (22.63) (32.64) (33.10) (29.41) (33.74) (40.19) (43.90) (48.53) Change in Stocks 3.34 3.19 7.70 4.22 1.79 10.34 14.31 18.18 14.08 11.52 11.17 Encore & Onirsions (is Gross Capital Fotmation) - 2.98 0.90 - 0.66 - 0.51 - 4.82 - 1.66 2.78 - 8.48 - 6.57 2.26 5.40 Change in Foreign Eoohange Reserves - 2.63 0.02 - 0.90 0.20 0.44 - 0.36 0.56 4.96 7.85 9.67 6.39 Statistical Dis-repancy -24.71 -30.02 - 1.59 - 7.29 - 8.07 0.09 1.42 - 7.17 - 4.03 - 7.41 -15.37 Note: The implicit prine deflator of gross donestie Capital foroation in Table 2.6 (a) & (b) has been card to deflate Foreign Resources and Change in Foreign Exchange Reserves. o names: 1. CSO, National Acou-nts Statistics, 1948/49 - 1962/63, Febroary 1964; 1960/61 - 1972/73, Disaggregated Tables, Macrh 1976; 1970/71 - 1976/77, ..a.aary 1979; and Press Note dated Febru-ry 7, 1980. 2. World B0nk estirates. - 163 - Table 2.6 (a) GROSS DOMESTIC CAPITAL FORMATION BY INDUSTRY OF USE (at current prices - in Rs billion) Sector 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1 Agriculture 2.08 3.28 3.95 7.21 9.49 13.01 16.46 20.29 34.37 41.04 48.79 2 Forestry & Logging 0.02 0.03 0.0Y 0.15 0.16 0.25 0.27 0.36 0.55 0.68 n.0. 3 Fishing 0.03 0.13 0.13 0.41 0.38 0.52 0.99 0.74 1.07 1.26 n.a. 4 Mining & Quarrying 0.07 0.13 0.40 0.33 0.72 0.91 2.80 6.72 7.26 7.28 0.0. Sub-total: Primary Sector 2.20 3.57 _*56 8.30 10.75 14.69 20.52 28.11 43.25 50.26 n,a. 5 Manufacturing 1.11 2.82 7.07 12.26 11.58 19.41 29.71 43.33 36.29 51.43 n.. 5.1 Registered (0.95) (2.51) (6.50) (10.89) (8.54) (13.71) (18.68) (34.71) (24.25) (34.86) (33.55) 5.2 Unregistered (0.16) (0.31) (0.57) ( 1.37) (3.04) ( 5.70) (11.03) ( 8.62) (12.04) (16.57) 0.0. 6 Constru-tion 0.07 0.66 0.92 1.39 1.34 1.11 2.01 2.43 2.47 3.35 n.0. 7 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply 0.21 0.82 1.22 4.06 4.28 6.39 6.65 13.05 15.64 19.08 0.0. Sub-total: Se a ector 1.39 4.30 9.21 17.71 17.20 26.91 38.37 58.81 54.60 73.86 0.0. 8 Transport, Storage and C-omunination 1.04 1.99 3.45 7.02 5.60 8.27 11.60 14.59 15.22 17.27 n.0. 8.1 Railways (0.60) (1.29) (1.74) (3.41) (2.08) (2.51) (3.21) (3.87) (3.27) ( 4.23) (5.01) 8.2 Oth0 r Transport & Storage (0.35) (0.58) (1.54) (3.23) (2.99) (5.20) (7.22) (8.77) (9.62) (10.59) n.a. 8.3 Cossunicatijn (0.09) (0.12) (0.17) (0.38) (0.53) (0.56) (1.17) (1.95) (2.33) ( 2.45) (2.92) 9 Trade, Rotels & Restaurants 1.10 1.06 1.30 -0.15 2.10 6.09 11.93 18.70 20.14 10.68 n.a. 10 Banking and Insurance 0.03 0.01 0.10 0.18 0.24 0.28 0.50 0.62 0.75 0.77 0.0. 11 Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling & B8usiness Services 2.89 2.23 3.08 5.67 11.36 9.81 15.60 15.99 23.85 32.77 0.a. 12 Public Administration & Defesse 0.68 1.09 3.07 3.92 2.57 4.71 10.76 11.65 9.92 9.25 14.61 13 Other Services 0.21 0.44 0.67 1.25 1.31 1.16 2.47 2.84 3.00 3.59 0.0. Sub-total: Tertiary Sector 5395 6.82 11,67 17.89 23.18 30.32 52.86 64.39 72.88 74.33 0.0. TOTAL: Gross Domestic Capital Formation 9.54 14.69 25,44 43.90 51.13 71.92 111.75 151.31 170.73 198.45 232.05 a/ The errors and omissions have bees distributed among the unorgasiced industries so that the total corresponds to total investible resources in Table 2.3 Sources: CSO, National Atonunts Statistics, 1960/61 - 1974/75, October 1976; 1970/71 - 1975/76. January 1978; 1970/71 - 1976/77, Junuary 1979; and Press Note doted February 7, 1979. Latest figures for 1976/77 -nd 1977/78 hove been obtained directly frm CSO, New Delhi. - 164 - TabLe 2.6 ib) GROSS DOMESTIC CAPITAL FORHATICN ST INDUSTRY OF USE (At 1970/71 prices - in Re billion) Average Cowpoud Groth Rate (% peran- t/ a/ a/ a! aL b/ 1950/51- 1970/71- Sortor 1950/51 - 1955/56 1960/61 1963/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/79 1978/79 - 1975/76 1978/79 1977/78 1997/79 I AgOloultur 5.09 7.16 7.07 10.59 10.74 13.01 12.47 11.53 18.86 21.69 24.78 3.3 7.7 16.1 13.2 2 Forestry & Lossitg 0.03 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.25 0.22 0.22 0.31 0.36 na. 8.3 5.3 16.1 0.0. 3 Fiohitg 0.17 0.42 0.32 0.69 0.47 0.52 0.70 0.37 0.60 0.72 ns.c 3.2 4.0 20.0 . M iinig & Quarrying 0.16 0.26 0.64 0.70 0.83 0.91 2.30 3.67 4.08 4.09 s. 13.4 23.9 0.2 2 .o. Sub-total: Pri-ary Seccur 5.44 7.91 8.16 12.17 12.21 14.69 15.69 15.79 23,85 27.06 o.o. 4.4 9.1 13.5 n.e. 5 M-uf-c-uriog 3.02 6.22 11.60 16.57 13.40 19.41 22.60 24.50 20.31 28.00 v.a. 8.7 5.4 37.9 n.t. 5.1 Rtio t lered (2.64) (5.51) (10.78) (14.75) (9.87) (13.71) (14.09) (20.09) (13.93) (19.26) (17.04) ( 8.5) (5.0) (38.3) (-11.5) 5.2 U-registered (0.38) (0.71) ( 1.02) ( 1.82) (3.53) ( 5.70) ( 8.51) ( 4.41) ( 6.38) ( 8.74) ( o.e.) (10.3) (6.3) (37.0) ( v.a.) 6 Coe-traction 0.13 1.15 1.30 1.51 1.25 1.11 1.54 1.45 1.46 1.98 n.e. 10.1 7.8 28.8 n. 7 ElectrIcity, Gao & Water Supply 0.53 1.68 1.97 5.24 4.78 6.39 5.46 7.75 9.16 10.71 ne. 11.3 7.7 16.9 n.e. Sob-total: Secondary Sector 3.68 9.05 15.07 23.32 19.43 26.91 29.60 33.70 30.93 40.59 v.a. 9.3 6.0 31.2 n.a. 8 Troveport, Sturage ond Co-tunicstiot 2.44 4.03 5.46 9.96 6.30 8.27 9.40 8.77 9.05 10.14 v.a. 5.3 3.0 12.0 v.a. 8.1 Ballosyc (1.39) (2.66) (2.84) (4.50) (2.37) (2.51) (2.69) (2.44) (2.03) (2.55) (2.54) (2.3) ( 0.2) (25.6) (-0.4) 8.2 Other Troosport & Storage (0.65) (1.13) (2.35) (3.98) (3.32) (5.20) (5.77) (5.14) (5.67) (6.21) (v.a.) (7.5) ( 2.6) ( 9.5) (-.a.) 8.3 Cousnoavion (0.20) (0.24) (0.27) (0.48) (0.61) (0.56) (0.94) (1.19) (1.35) (1.38) (1.48) (7.4) (13.8) ( 2.2) ( 7.2) 9 Trade, Hoels & Re -tauraate 2.18 2.34 2.10 0.21 2.18 6.09 8.98 10.71 11.24 6.01 v.a. 6.6 -0.2 -46.5 n.e. 10 Basking and Io.uroece 0.07 0.04 0.18 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.37 0.35 0.40 0.41 o.s. 6.6 5.6 2.5 o.e. 11 leol Eta-te, 0-werahLp af D-olliog 6.94 4.97 5.48 7.76 13.03 9.81 11.61 8.44 12.56 16.78 n.. 0.0 8.0 33.6 os. & B-vicese So-oice. 12 Public Admticitratioa 6 Df.ence 1.51 2.31 5.21 5.35 3.12 4.71 8.16 6.67 5.49 4.94 7.42 6.1 0.7 -10.0 50.2 13 Other Seroicee 0.54 0.95 1.14 1.61 1.51 1.16 2.15 1.42 1.68 1.97 o.c. 3.9 7.9 17.3 r.a. Sob-total: Tertiary Sectur 13.68 14.64 19.57 24.14 26.41 30.32 40.87 36.36 40.42 40.25 n.e. 4.0 4.1 0.6 n.e. TOTAL: Goose Doreetlo Capital Fccmatlos 22.80 31.60 42.80 59.63 58.05 71.92 86.16 05.85 93.20 107.90 117. 5 5.4 6.0 13.3 9.2 0/ Dara in 1960/61 prices have bueen conerted into 1970/71 price. u..ai price defluto-s derived foo 1970/71 date in CSO, Nati.oal Aucoa.s. Staeti-o, 1960/61 - 1974/75, Otober 1976. Coatequeotly, the mosaic do not tally with total isoestible resources . . sh- in TeSl1 2.3. b/ The implicit price derletor of total grSt. dn-estic copital forcatio has been aced ta derive the figuroc for individual itducnnios is 1978/79. Sources: 1. CSO, NarCoa..l Aucc-te Statiotico, 1960/61-1914/75, Ontobec 1976; 1970/71-1975/76, ....cauy 1978; 1970/71-197.6/77, .u.ua y 1979; d ..Naod . Freeslotdated February 7, 1980. Lctesr figore f-or 1976/77 asd 1977/78 bane boon obtained directly from tho CSO, Nte Dolhi. 2. world Bank e-timarts. - 105 - Table 2.7 GROWTH OF TOTAL AND PER CAPITA NET DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY STATES (1960/61 to 1975 76) Net Domestic Product At Factor Cost Per Capita Net Domestic Product at at 1960/61 prices (Rs.billion) Factor Cost at 1960/61 prices (Rs.) Average Compound Growth Average Compound Growth 1960/61 1975/76 Rate (% per annum) 1960/61 1975/76 Rate (% per annum) Andhra Pradesh 9.83 15.87 3.2 275 330 1.22 Assam a/ 3.36 6.25 4.2 315 374 1.15 Bihar 9.93 13.15 b/ 1.9 215 214 b/ - 0.03 Gujarat 7.38 12.08 3.3 362 395 0.58 Haryana 2.45 5.32 5.3 327 471 2.46 Himachal Pradesh 1.01 c/ 1.37 3.9 314 c/ 361 1.76 Jammu & Kashmir 0.95 1.71 4.0 269 329 1.35 Karnataka d/ 6.67 13.49 4.8 286 407 2.38 Kerala 4.32 6.98 3.3 259 297 0.92 Madhya Pradesh 8.32 13.05 3.0 260 281 0.52 Maharashtra 15.97 26.85 3.5 409 478 1.04 Manipur 0.12 0.25 5.0 154 201 1.79 Orissa 3.74 6.89 e/ 4.2 216 288 e/ 1.94 Punjab 4.04 8.15 4.8 366 551 2.76 Rajasthan 5.59 8.89 3.1 284 311 0.61 Tamil Nadu 11.12 16.30 2.6 334 358 0.46 Tripura 0.28 0.67 6.0 249 374 2.75 Uttar Pradesh 18.43 25.85 2.3 252 270 0.46 West Bengal 13.39 18.72 2.3 390 384 - 0.10 ALL-INDIA f 133.35 218.97 3.4 307 363 1.12 Note: The estimates of net domestic product have been prepared and released by the respective State Statistical Bureaus. The estimates are prepared following, to the extent possible, the standard methodologies recommended by the Working Group on State Income. However, owing to differences in methodology, source material used and the base year for constant price series these estimates are not strictly comparable amongst the states. The estimates are as on July 31, 1978 and they are likely to undergo revision for the year 1975/76 as and when better and more recent data become available. a/ Converted to 1960/61 prices from 1948/49 prices. b_/ World Bank estimate. c/ Relates to 1967/68. d/ Converted to 1960/61 prices from 1956/57 prices. e/ Converted to 1960/61 prices from 1970/71 prices. f/ Including States and Union Territories not listed above. Source: Central Statistical Organization. Table __7 MERCAR1CDISE IP.ORTS (at current prices - in US$ million) Annual Comouond Growth Rate (. ocr annum) 1950/51- 1970/ 71-- Commod ity______ 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1965/69 1270/71 1973/7 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 12I/2 2 7 1976/79 1977/78 17(8/'7 I Agrtoalt-ral Products 328. 550.9 420.7 497.0 478,5 519.3 858.6 1,395.5 1,962.5 1,63y,5 -171.7 5-9 15Y 20.1 -10.2 Tea 168.9 229.2 259.6 241.2 208.6 197.7 187.4 273.8 927.9 665.3 414.9 2.0 9.7 102.9 -37.6 Ol Caken 0.1 11.1 30.0 72.8 66.0 73.9 228.7 111.5 262.2 155.6 141.1 92.4 d.4 -40.7 - 9-3 Coffee 2.8 3.2 15.2 27.2 24.0 33.5 59.1 77.0 141.0 727.0 175.6 14.2 23.0 61.o -22.6 Sugar 0.8 2.0 5.1 22.0 13.5 36.8 55.0 545.9 165.7 22.7 160.9 29.8 20.2 -86.3 624.4 Spices 53.4 22.4 34.9 48.5 33.5 51.8 70.7 82.7 83.9 160.1 142.,4 1.8 16.9 90.8 17.7 Fish 5.2 7.9 9.7 14.3 30.3 41.7 114.5 147.0 202.0 203.6 278.2 14.3 26.8 0.8 36.6 Cashew 18.0 27.3 39.7 57.5 81.2 69.4 95.5 111.1 118.7 174.6 27.8 7.6 4,4 47.1 -44.2 Vegetable Oils 3/ 93.0 72.1 17.9 8.6 15.6 9.4 39.6 39.8 56.4 24.2 16.5 -1.1 7.3 -57.1 -31.S snential Oils 26.6 5.7 8.6 4.9 5.8 5.1 8.1 4.5 4.7 6.4 6.4 -6,.9 2.9 36.2 II Crude Materials 78.5 155 .0 155.4 196.8 217.2 252.7 335, 641.1 671.2 9. 539'5.52 8.8 S i - 1.5-94 17.4 Raw Cotton 10.4 62.3 18.2 20.4 14.8 18.6 41.6 47.7 30.2 0.8 19.5 6.3 n.6 -97.4 2737.5 Unmnuofaotured Tobacco 29.6 22.4 30.7 41.1 44.2 41.9 87.8 107.6 108.3 172.2 134.9 5.3 15.7 22.1 2.0 Iron Ore 0.5 13.2 35.8 88.4 117.8 152.9 170.5 247.1 266.8 281.3 283.8 28.7 8.0 5.4 0.9 Uica 21.0 17.6 21.2 23.7 18.0 20.7 16.7 16.9 19.4 20.2 73.1 -O.Y 1.4 4.1 14.4 iiasogaooemw 16.8 22.5 29.5 23.2 18.0 18.6 12.1 20.2 21.4 12.7 16.60 O.7 0.1 -40.7 48.0 Silver n.a. n.a. n.s. n.s. 4.4 nw.. 7.1 201.6 191.1 91.8 115.1 n.a. -52.0 25.4 III Manufactured Items. 568.8 4.3 7 782.4 277.2 976.53 1 .545.I 1a24 2,848.6 , 56,500.1 9.911 5.1 119.5, 15. 1P.2 Jute Manufactures 239.0 248.3 283.8 384.0 290.6 253.9 292.0 290.0 275.0 285.9 703.0 0.8 -2.8 27.1 -79.2 - Cotton Textile i) Mill-cads 225.1 101.2 110.8 98.5 87.3 90.0 208.8 140.5 238.4 167.4 169.4 -1.9 6.2 -25.8 1.2 ii) Handloos 22.8 17.8 10.0 17.5 6.7 10.4 41.6 45.8 6o.6 95.0 74.4 2.8 27.9 56.8 -21.7 Coir Manufactures 22.8 20.2 18.2 22.5 18.4 17.3 19.7 22.0 26.8 27.9 32.1 -0.1 6.0 4.1 15.1 Clothing 0.8-/ -.a. 1.8 13.4 19.6 40.3 127.9 234.6 372.7 $66.8 518.5 25-5 gl 77.6 3.8 34.0 Cotton Yarn and Thread 4.2 9.5 9.3 14.6 19.1 29.6 14.6 7.4 31.5 35.3 18.9 i/ 7.3 n.m. 12.1 na. Leather and Leather ianofacotren 54.5 ./ 48.3 56.6 '12.6 206.5 108.8 239.5 263.6 264.4 317.6 450.4 6.5 18.8 20.1 35.5 Gene no. n.m. 0.3 31.0 59.7 55.8 137.2 171.6 321.1 637.4 865.9 n.a. 40.9 98.5 35.8 Other Randi-rafts I.a. n.a. n.a. 21.4 32.4 37.3 85.6 119.6 188.7 240.5 294.6 n.a. 29.5 27.5 22.5 Iron & Steel I/ 9.3 3/ n.. 20.3 26.5 105.2 121.6 33.6 78.6 325.0 216.5 140.2 1395 f81 1.8 -55.4 -95.2 Rngineer-ig Goods b, 1.2_/ n.a. 37.8 41.6 89.8 155.3 258.9 477.9 693.5 721.0 852.3 27.1 E/ 27.7 13.8 18.2 Chenicals o/ 17.9 12.0 7.2 19.2 25.8 39.2 64.6 98.6 124.0 136.3 178.3 7.1 20.8 9.9 30.8 Mineral Fuels n.a. n.a. 15.6 19.6 16.1 16.8 19.7 42.8 36.9 32.5 23.7 na. 4.4 -11.9 -27.1 IV Others 285.41/ 50 52. 7 / 258.7 215.6 137.6 298.6 500.8 645.5 904.8 6 1-17.6 S .3 7.8 2. V TOTAL. EXPORTS1 ._261.3 1. 273< 1,186.5 1 ,691.8 1,810.5 2.0469< h/ 1.218.9 4,672.1 _56.7558.1 74621 55 6 07..2 .54Ii6 .4 16.6 .< 10: Ed/ Rible oile en-loding -anaspati. / In accordanoe with the classification followed by the Ministry of Commerce. In 1972 ev.eral manufactured itens formerly included under Iron & Steel were reolassified as hogine-ring Goods. Data fron 1973/74 oneards follow the ne- olasnification and hron- are not .o.parable with data for earlier years. g/ Eicluding eseential oiln and plastios. / Rointes to 1951/52. / Eocludes footwear. ./ Includes ite.s listed abowe fcr whioh data are not available. R Relates to the period 1951/52 to 1975/76. / flnadjntstd total. DTi to a uhange in re-ording tochnique, the FGCIS data probably overstate onporte by abmut 55 in 1970/71. -2/ E i-uSig cittu-n thread. ouron.: Ministry of Co-mrce, Department of Commerojal Intelligence mod Statistios , Monthly Statistics of the ForeIn Trade of India. - 167 - Table 3.2 M2RCHANDISE IMPORTS (at current prices - in US$ million) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1966/67 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 P.udarains n.a. n. 378.4 670.3 854.0 443.0 271.0 597.0 951.3 1,537.3 958.7 121.2 114.4 Wheat 112.4 25.0 321.7 556.0 564.1 346.0 231.2 444.2 875.4 1,399.0 894.1 109.3 a0.5 Rice 51.5 8.4 47.1 88.0 108.9 76.6 39.8 8.3 15.3 53.8 51.4 7.2 1.2 Othees n.e. n.e. 9.6 26.3 181.0 20.4 0.8 144.5 60.6 84.5 13.2 4.7 32.7 POL 116.4 116.7 146,0 143.2 84.1 177.1 181.2 719.1 1.450.5 1.416.5 1,581.1 1,811.2 2.043.4 Crude Petrrleup n.m. 16.8 36.5 73.2 48.1 127.5 141.2 535.3 1,197.2 1,215.5 1,288.3 1,455.3 1,524.7 Petraleup Products c.a. 97.9 109.5 70.0 36.0 49.6 40.0 183.6 253.3 201.0 292.8 355.9 518.7 Fertilizers 25.9 S/ 4.7 22.3 82.1 132.2 228.7 100.9 242.8 617.6 609.5 214.4 301.4 451.8 NitSroene-us Ferttli7ers n.n. n.a. 20.3 67.2 94.3 169.4 88.5 122.5 417.4 405.8 173.7 179.8 332.9 Phesphatic Pertilizmes n.e. n.o. 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.5 0.1 - n.m. 21.8 0.9 7.5 27.6 Petassic PeFtiliners n.e. n.e. 1.9 8.7 8.6 19.1 6.1 37.8 54.3 34.2 34.3 63.7 36.9 Co-ple Fertilizers n.e. n.e. - 5.7 29.2 38.7 6.2 82.5 145.9 147.7 5.5 50.5 54.4 Ferttilier Rem Materials b na__ 10.3 26.8 34.6 40,5 32.4 5280 134_2 102.2 101.1 139.5 144.7 Iron and Steel 42.0 118.8 257.3 205.7 130.6 114.9 196.1 320.2 531.2 360.4 245.5 306.9 572.1 Non-Ferron s Metals 59.4 51.6 99.4 144.4 114.2 118.7 159.2 180.1 224.0 116.0 175.7 224.4 301,6 Copper 17.9 20.0 46.1 70.1 52.1 52.3 80.3 98.9 91.5 25.2 51.6 59.9 126.5 Nickel n.e. 803 3.0 4.0 1 9 7.7 16.5 11.1 17 5 18 8 31.0 26.2 34.7 Aluminum 6.1 10.0 14.0 13.2 20 3 6.0 4.5 3.7 3.8 11 5 2 6 13.3 39.1 Lead 4.7 4.4 5.2 12.8 13.9 8.5 13.0 14.0 23.6 10.7 20.9 33.0 18.8 Zinc 13.8 8.7 19.3 27.0 14.5 26.5 29.3 35.6 69.4 24.6 39.8 49.0 40.4 Tim 8.5 7.5 8.2 15.1 9.3 15.4 11.7 16.2 10.8 16.5 23.0 33.4 30.2 Others 8.4 0.7 3.6 3.0 2.2 2.3 3.9 8.6 7.4 8.7 6.8 9.6 11.9 Metal Ores and Sce-p 0.9 1.0 7.0 4.3 7.2 8.2 14.6 17.1 7.5 23.3 34.8 52.7 02.7 Edible Oils n.. n.. 7.4 14.8 14.9 12.9 30.6 72.8 15.0 15.8 111.7 829.0 649.3 SIyabman Oil n.u. n.m. - 13.0 11.9 12.7 28.2 27.5 9.1 2.6 57.2 229.6 221.4 Palm Oil n.-. n.m. 7.4 1.5 2.8 0.2 0.2 32.1 5.9 5.3 19.5 254.2 246.7 Groundnut Oil n.- - - - - - 2.4 22.5 42.3 3.1 Rape, Idea and Mustard Oil n.e. n.m. - 0.3 0.2 n.m. n.s. 13.2 - 5.5 12.4 266.3 155.0 Others n.-. n... - - 22 - - - 0.1 36.6 23.1 Non-Edible Oils n.n. n.e. 2.7 13.7 4.7 12.9 20.7 10.5 28.4 3.5 20.0 5315 5.2 Oilseede 4.8 16.8 24.4 18.5 6.4 4.7 8.5 9.5 12.6 9.1 3.7 15.6 54.9 Cettum (rav) 211.6 120.4 171.7 97.0 75.3 120.3 131.8 66.5 34.4 32.6 144.9 232.2 -35 Other Fibers n.a. n.m. 18.8 65.1 91.4 42.3 37.2 52.4 49.7 51.8 80.6 270.8 294.5 WUol 11.8 3.0 2.9 10.8 15.7 15.0 21.4 26.9 34.4 29.9 29.3 35.1 39.3 Synthetic Fibers n.0. n.m. 8.3 4.3 1.4 1.6 9.6 3.3 3.4 7.3 33.7 223.9 241.6 Others n. u.a. 15.6 50.0 74.3 25.7 6.2 22.2 11.9 14.6 17.6 11.8 13.6 Cmshbenuts (raw) 6.0 10.2 20.2 31.6 26.1 41.0 39.2 37.0 45.9 38.8 20.5 21.0 11.2 Dia-mndm n.. n.e. 0.7 0.2 1.9 30.0 25.2 84.7 59.9 90.5 193.1 375.3 557.0 Pulp and Paper 22.2 38.4 39.5 40.7 41.9 38.3 49 . 49.4 87.0 85.2 76.4 120.4 178.8 Pulp and Waste Paper 0.9 6.2 14.1 12.4 13.0 13.9 16.4 11.9 12.3 18.5 6.8 24.8 51.1 Puper mmd Paper Board 21.3 32.2 25.4 28.3 28.9 24.4 33.4 37.5 74.7 66.7 69.6 95.6 127.7 Cheacels n.a.,a. 157.7 138.4 140.9 149.3 155.5 212.3 285.6 240.8 250.6 405.9 514.2 Basic Chomic-im 19.8 44.6 82.6 75.0 59.4 67.4 71.3 103.4 149.2 113.4 124.1 180.7 227.1 Others n.m. n... 75.1 63.4 88.5 81.9 84.2 108.9 136.4 127.4 126.5 225.2 287.1 Precisiun Equip ent 14.0 24.2 22.9 29.4 22.9 23.0 32.5 38.9 43.1 46.9 62.3 105.2 145. Machinery 192.0 273.2 547.3 885.4 685.2 596.8 437.5 714.4 707.7 898.4 980.9 1,033.6 1.166.6 Electrical MKchi-ory 49.9 78.9 120.2 184.4 141.2 109.0 93.9 166.8 201.8 232.0 188.8 226.8 244.5 Rum-Electrical Mauhiery 142.1 194.3 427.1 701.0 544.0 487.8 343.7 547.6 505.9 666.4 792.1 806.8 922.1 Tranmpurt Eguipemnt 73.4 133.4 152.8 148.1 03-0 88.4 080. 121.9 164.5 181.6 191.0 263.1 329.6 Railmay Vehicles 26.9 31.8 53.2 52.4 21.9 20.8 18.7 32.5 31.9 39.7 19.4 21.2 15.1 Re-d Vehicles 20.5 30.6 76.0 70.6 40.9 43.4 31.4 45.1 63.4 66.8 48.3 57.4 73.8 Aircraft 5.4 20.7 21.3 14.8 16.0 18.4 36.0 37.4 67.2 69.1 119.9 172.5 212.3 Ship. S/ 20.6 50.3 1.5 10.3 4.2 5.8 2.6 6.9 2.0 6.0 3.4 2.0 28.4 Other Imrt n. 306.9 198.1 219.6 253.0 165.5 194.3 215.6 224.1 229.0 369.6 116 0 Feud n.e. n.e. 50.9 41.7 60.4 52.6 51.4 68.1 75.2 75.3 90,0 129.3 173.8 R.w Mttmiele n.m. n.e. 58.8 39.3 37.2 32.5 34.4 31.6 40.4 38.0 44.0 65.6 123.9 M nufactures n.e. n.-. 197.2 117.2 122.0 167.9 79.7 94.6 99.8 110.8 95.0 174.7 318.3 TOTAL IMPORTS 1,365.4 1,425.6 2.393.4 2.957.9 2.771.1 2.544.8 2175.9 3.793.2 5.665.5 6.084.3 5.676.0 7.030,5 8.269.5 80272.8 .1 Includes crude fmrtilisers. S/ Reck phosphate, sulphur end -urosted iroo pyrites, phomphuric acid and a-miu. E encludem iDpurts of nerebunt uhips. d/ Revised total. Sources: 1. Ministry f C -osercc, DOpeettent of Co-serciul Intelligenc- end Statitics., MoNthly Stotietics of the Foreign Trude nf Indie. 2. Mimistey of c-Derce, Office of the Economic Adviser. - 168 - Table 3.3 UNIT VALUE AND VOLUME INDICES OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS, AND INDIA'S TERMS OF TRADE (Base 1968/69.100) Exports Imports Unit Value Unit Value Year Volume Index (in terms / Volume Index (in terms a/ Terms of Trade (April-March) Index of US dollars) - Index of US dollars) Gross Net 1950/51 73 99 50 187 68 53 1951/52 58 145 63 123 109 118 1952/53 65 102 47 121 72 84 1953/54 65 93 44 112 68 83 1954/55 68 99 52 109 76 91 1955/56 75 91 55 106 73 87 1956/57 71 96 65 110 92 87 1957 77 96 74 120 96 80 1958 70 94 66 112 94 85 1959 75 94 73 104 97 91 1960/61 70 104 85 107 121 97 1961/62 74 104 80 110 108 94 1962/63 79 101 87 106 110 96 1963/64 89 99 89 109 100 91 1964/65 93 101 97 110 104 91 1965/66 87 107 102 117 117 92 1966/67 b/ 84 102 99 106 118 96 1967/68 86 102 110 96 128 106 1968/69 100 100 100 100 100 100 1969/70 100 104 84 100 84 104 1970/71 106 106 87 100 82 106 1971/72 107 109 105 94 98 116 1972/73 120 117 99 94 83 124 1973/74 125 141 114 133 91 106 1974/75 133 172 100 225 75 77 1975/76 147 171 99 243 67 70 1976/77 174 176 97 233 56 76 1977/78 168 207 130 218 77 95 Average Compound Growth Rate (. per annum) 1950/51 - 1976/77 3.4 2.2 2.6 0.8 c/ 1970/71 - 1977/78 6.8 10.0 5.9 11.8 1975/76 10.5 0.6 - 1.0 8.0 1976/77 18.4 2.9 - 2.0 - 4.1 1977/78 -3.4 17.6 34.0 - 6.4 Note: The indices available on four different base periods have been converted to the base 1968/69 by chain base method. I/t Unit value indices in terms of rupees have been converted to US dollars using the annual average exchange rates given on the inside cover of this report. b/ Relates to the period June-March. c/ Note that for the base year 1950/51, the unit value index for imports was exceptionally high. Source: Ministry of Couxerce, Department of Couercial Intelligence & Statistics, Calcutta. Table 3.4 UNIT VALUE AND VOLUYE INDICES OF EXPORTS - BY MAJOR COMMODITY GROUPS (1968/69=100) .8/ Unit Value Index (in term of US dollars) b Volume Index Cceo4ditgrGr2ub-Cr ~ 190/61 169/66 1966/67/1968/691 1970/71 t975/74 /67 6497o71 9 1976/77 .41960/61 196S/66 1966/67g 1966/69 9701 /74 1 9 74/7 197 5/7 6 1976/77 t 6 77/78 Food 101 106 101 100 101 245 t90 181 180 281 8S 92 100 100 112 121 1t8 163 162 131 Fish and Fish Preparations 55 83 97 100 103 172 146 194 250 242 60 55 83 100 134 220 189 255 270 280 Fruits and Vegetables 72 85 95 100 104 142 175 164 183 317 78 84 81 100 86 84 100 96 100 75 Coffee 94 123 103 100 126 141 i65 157 345 485 68 92 78 100 I11 175 165 205 155 192 Tea and Mate 124 118 109 100 96 93 120 123 129 282 100 99 103 100 99 95 112 106 122 110 Spices 102 121 112 100 141 148 192 187 241 289 102 119 109 100 109 142 120 131 101 165 Oilseed Cake 87 110 105 100 108 235 186 136 187 243 55 100 96 100 104 141 98 111 203 97 Sugar, Sugar Freparations and Honey n.a. *n.a. n.a. 100 71 140 370 269 169 172 .a. n.a. n.a. 100 594 281 819 1453 706 92 Beverrages aod Tobacco 85 82 69 100 104 122 146 452 155 181 88 123 66 100 95 165 tS7 158 167 168 Crude Materials (including inedible oils t52 112 102 100 104 126 149 167 171 t85 65 90 95 100 114 128 129 129 198 109 but not fuelse) _ Hides, Skin and For 153 120 156 100 99 192 52 83 110 502 194 245 231 100 72 14 14 4 11 3 Wool and Other Animal hair 169 167 138 100 97 207 255 203 230 177 125 119 98 100 91 68 56 37 51 14 Cotton 98 102 92 100 112 148 189 166 220 389 118 120 121 100 93 151 54 148 94 5 Crude Fertiliners & Minerals 99 106 104 100 100 80 87 122 97 120 116 116 97 100 120 139 195 121 194 185 Metalliferous Ores and Metal Scrap 135 101 95 100 100 100 129 159 110 180 38 79 85 100 125 132 127 127 201 115 Animal and Vegetable Crude Materials 102 132 109 100 120 192 253 231 201 237 85 76 87 100 97 98 116 88 119 127 Mineral Puels and Lubricants 107 115 124 100 104 145 291 381 322 .555 7 105 92 100 100 85 8S~ 61 70 61 Coal & Coke 82 117 109 100 119 137 254 627 355 278 238 142 81 100 126 81 94 87 127 143 Animal A Vegetable Oils & Fats 58 123 122 100 132 292 258 179 415 259 15 49 20 100 4S 86 109 141 232 70 Chemicals 99 88 96 100 92 99 180 158 164 1S5 A8 87 69 100 167 255 229 208 254 501 Manufactured Goods 102 o6 100 52 192 .42021...2104 24 2294 102 106 100 2.111 145 192 1 19S 5 100 92 19 1107 Leather and Leather Products 121 115 128 100 102 209 217 218 281 287 45 54 68 100 97 109 86 110 108 104 Teetile Yarn and Thread 94 106 94 100 102 135 189 162 174 195 77 93 86 100 139 89 77 50 108 89 Cotton Manufastures 107 96 92 100 110 164 220 185 206 257 96 118 92 100 101 157 104 114 153 120 Jute Manufactures 83 98 100 100 105 120 157 126 112 121 83 103 100 100 85 83 81 78 68 80 Floor Coverings 82 102 100 100 108 157 190 198 222 276 99 78 87 100 93 123 137 137 184 208 Non-ferrous Metals n.a. n.a. 0.0 100 112 141 188 172 177 205 0.0. n.a. n.a. 100 72 72 295 630 561 282 Iron & Steel n.a. n.a. n.a. 100 147 168 283 238 237 223 n.a. 0.0. 0.0. 100 78 42 56 54 173 139 Manufactures of Metals n.a. n.a. n.a. 100 121 141 213 206 212 221 0.0. 0.0. n.a. 100 134 153 176 200 302 375 Machinery and Tranaport Equipment 165 112 84 100 104 15 118 156 152 170 _ 29 45 100 166 88 586 3525 575 597 Mliscellaneous Manufactured Articles .7 109 54 100 108 126 142 141 159 .152 45 67 65 IN 1S1 285 541 620 655 Clothing tc. n.a. ..a. n.a. 100 100 125 137 134 133 145 n.a. n.a. n.a. 100 205 498 633 878 1392 1350 Footwear n.a. n.. 0.0. 100 122 129 154 198 197 195 n.a. n.0. n.0. 100 102 109 136 105 137 117 General 104 107 102 100 106 141 172 171 176 207 70 47 84 100 106 125 155 147 174 168 a/ The indices for the years 1960/61, 1965/66 and 1966/67 available on the base 1958o100, have been converted to the base 1968/690100 by linking the two series at 1968/69. / Unit value indioes in ter=s of espees have been convorted to US dollars using the annual average exchange rates given on the inside cover of this report. S/ The indices are based on the average of the index numbers for the ten months from June 1966 to March 1967. Consequent to the devaluation of the Indian rupee on Jane 6, 1966, the figures for April & May have not been taken into account as they are not comparable sith the post devaluation figures. d/ The figures for April and May have not beon taken into account. Source: ldinistry of Cooarce, Department of Cosmercial Intelligence and Statistics, Calcutta. Table 35. 7NIT VALUE A.Nl VOLU1E TNIICES OF LMPORTS - BY MAJOR COMMD:ITY GROUPS Unt0a ldse int, sof US dollars1 j/ 8I ____Tooo o Connodity Grasp/S rb-Cr804 7567611022/46 _____ ot198 6 1 a 1y66 1 74=76S1 9675 1976/171 9 265766 6_ 19 7117 197S/71 6 1T71 -od 24 95 29 100 95 167 205 210 219 222 5 142 162 100 71 78 101 134 2 25 Un,ity Products and Eggs 128 9e 105 100 03 141 144 127 246 208 49 78 83 l00 a6 86 109 124 90 127 Cereals ond Cereal Preparation9 95 94 09 100 93 175 215 239 223 230 73 152 178 100 68 77 100 145 98 14 Fruits and Vegetables 83 96 93 100 109 127 145 141 148 95 84 A1 72 100 85 79 85 71 49 51 Beverages and Tobaceo 87 42 Ro 100 97 1i1 167 153 141 194 124 94 67 100 08 27 21 52 55 S56 Crade Materials (including inedi le olls .S 110 107 4100 95 175 177 149 166 t65 1S8 92 102 00 111 B5 Li 66 92 181 but not foeis) PLop and Waste Pap,er r-. nla. .a. 100 113 124 183 235 259 247 n.a. v.a. n.a. 100 104 69 48 58 19 72 #oaT and Other lAnial Hair 115 117 116 100 92 225 221 163 198 227 128 62 100 100 156 80 104 124 105 99 Cotton 77 110 98 100 102 120 257 125 225 198 183 72 67 100 107 46 11 72 54 97 juts 57 82 269 100 75 92 69 61 61 se, 222 116 82 100 2 137 55 51 100 n.e. Crode Psertilizera and Mieerals 69 110 85 100 73 8R 163 145 126 130 57 G8 107 100 131 151 178 159 157 205 Mineral Marie and Lubri-onts 157 107 91 10U 80 ISO 444 4244 A51 42494 195 91 100 232 427 291 222 312 575 Petroleum Crude etc. 131 110 85 100 101 321 692 718 776 836 45 91 93 100 193 230 239 234 229 238 Ani a V ale Oils & Pats 121 152 117 1OU 128 955 ?49 1B0 195 l9a 1 93 75 100 156 ?44 68 <4 266 1875 Cbeemiels 181 125 213 100 Lii 154 w56 ?92 190 195 27 47 67 100 62 91 25 7 71 1C4 Chemocal Elements and Cospou-ds 109 98 82 10 109 1C9 219 222 201 179 68 70 82 100 75 113 93 85 70 115 Dysing, Tanning and Colouring Material. 118 98 94 102 115 152 193 218 219 277 193 110 104 100 go 73 62 54 65 61 Fertilisers M-fao.a.tred 172 124 120 100 108 149 299 379 184 193 7 56 59 100 41 76 97 72 66 85 Plantie Materials n.a. n.a . n.a. 100 140 141 709 205 1G6 199 n.a. 100 40 72 57 57 86 202 Muftrdoeds 47 90 90 100 117 1M 185 200 187 19' 16S 1S1 311 100 11S 156 M55 120 121 175 Paper and Paper Board etc. 107 104 99 100 113 141 249 276 266 271 94 ill 123 100 121 108 122 97 107 145 Testile Yarn, Fabrice etc. 293 151 108 100 98 108 163 125 140 130 185 148 147 100 103 67 94 119 59 165 Iron & Steel 87 85 94 100 115 124 173 214 183 184 251 208 116 100 151 218 263 144 117 143 Copper 41 98 121 100 130 145 105 139 138 137 145 138 92 100 i18 119 95 35 72 84 Nickel 66 65 n.1. 100 153 118 139 145 167 162 60 00 na 100 144 122 159 168 242 208 Aluminium 94 91 87 100 123 2 0 2S0 217 237 193 287 240 389 100 60 28 24 84 18 114 Lead 8O 132 107 100 125 151 245 167 174 260 05 107 153 100 122 129 113 73 142 149 Zinc 91 115 102 100 109 191 354 259 26C 227 80 88 56 100 101 70 74 35 58 R0 Tin 72 120 98 100 117 173 238 208 240 370 73 82 61 100 65 60 29 51 62 59 M-faotuea res of Metals 96 120 115 100 105 96 152 141 164 228 250 1,15 138 130 66 159 124 151 108 108 ltachtnoenL Transport EuLs t 835 195 99 100 24 111 1SD 182 195 180 120 13D 92 _20 _Y 136 8e2 90 e2 lOS Machinery Other Than Electrio 83 113 121 100 88 115 150 194 206 256 103 124 88 100 79 94 67 74 72 65 Eleetrical Mechin-ey etc. 69 1o6 109 100 98 81 127 150 151 68 158 155 126 100 87 182 137 159 118 293 TransporTt Eoipasnt 99 131 106 130 121 150 195 18e 208 306 164 130 50 100 74 87 01 104 91 146 Miscellaneous blassufaetured Articles 148 189 1S4 100 117 22.5 M75 206 250 5D4 71 2L 61 1D0 112 121 24 125 89 112 Profeasi-nal Spientific Tr-tra-ecte etc. n.a. n.a. na. 100 118 161 197 250 298 356 n.a. n.-. n.a. 1110 120 103 91 107 76 129 _enerai 107 117 106 100 100 153 229 245 255 218 es 102 92 100 87 114 100 92 27 110 4/ The indicem for the years 1960/61, 1965/65 and 1966/67 available at the base 1958=100, hbvo been converted to thc base 1960/69=100 by linking the teo seriea at 1968/69. q/ Unit value indiceo in tern, of rupees have been converted to Us dnllars using the a Toaa average e-change rates given on the i-oide nocer of this report. o The indi-es are based on the average of the index numbsrs f-or the tn moths f-os Jane 1966 to March 1967. Cansequent to the devaluation of the Ihdia rp- on Jae 6, i9u, the figures for April & My hbane not been taken inte ac-ont as they ace not oomparable with the post de-aluation figures. d/ The fi-.r.s for April & May hane no- boo taken oits a-cout. Source: Ministry of Cnoomero, Lep-rt-ant of Commercial Irtelligesse and Statistioc, Calcutta. Table 3.6 DESTINATION OF EXPORTS t950/s_____________________ Villion) ____976/77 .___ - Peroenta.e Distribution 1954/57 1955/96 16061 1666 J574L77 1T' 9-75/776 455722 i 7~~8 1250/t1 195/6 160~61 1 66 10 6 16 1 8 9 Afriea (excluding U.A.R) 122.3 81.6 74.8 7535 110.6 198.1 247,8 320.5 340.6 2±J 6 5 S.3 54 S.4 A, 34. 51 4.9 i515, 262.5 290.2 578.-4 327,5 676.7 717M5 64.4 1.022.3 25.0 20.5 21.5 22.4 16.0 14±5 12.5 t15.7 t4.7 USA 213.3 183.0 215.3 310.4 276.5 600.9 636.6 790.6 937.2 18.5 14.3 15.7 18.4 13.5 12.9 11.1 12.5 13.4 Canada 27.7 29.4 37.0 42.6 37.3 52.9 55.4 53.8 59.4 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 Others 54.3 50.1 37.9 25.4 13.8 22.8 25.5 20.0 25.7 4.3 3.9 3.0 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 Asia and Oceania (including U.A.8) _97.A 43564 413.8 450.7 725.2 1,880.1 2,158.1 2.271.1 7.693.4 32.3 54.1 28.1 26.6 5S 40.5 5735 36.0 8.J6 (s) Middle East n.a. - 67.7 83.6 142.5 212.9 808.4 867.5 879.7 915.2 n.e. 5.5 S S, 1.4 103 15.3 tS1 13. 5.1 Iran 12.6 10.9 11.3 12.6 35.5 314.7 164.4 136.2 113.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.8 6.7 2.9 2.2 1.6 Iraq n.m. 4.6 6.2 9.1 12.8 73.8 53.3 59.8 57.3 n.a, 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 Saudi Arabia n.a. 1.3 6.9 8.3 20.5 69.5 86.4 144.4 162.3 o.a. 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.3 2.3 Other OPEC a/ n.a. 15.4 15.8 37.3 49.8 163.5 341.1 347.3 367.0 n.a. 1.2 1.2 2.2 2.4 3.5 5.9 5.5 5.3 U.A.R. 11.4 20.1 28.1 56.8 75.2 115.7 101.8 83.7 72.6 0.9 1.6 2.1 3.4 3.7 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.0 Others 4/ n.m. 15.4 15.3 18.2 18.5 71.2 120.3 108.3 142.6 n.m. 1.2 0.4 1.1 0.9 1.5 2.1 1.7 2.0 (b) Other Asia and Oceania n 68.7 30.2 39584 512.9 1,071.7 1.290.8 1.391.4 1,778.2 n.E. 28.8 27.6 18.2 25.1 23.0 22.4 22.0 25.5 Japan 20.2 63.5 74.1 120.0 271.3 500.1 609.0 590.7 728.0 1.6 4.9 5.5 7.1 13.3 10.7 10.6 9.4 10.4 Australia 60.5 52.1 47.0 36.8 3P.6 55.7 73.9 96.4 107.2 4.8 4.1 3.5 2.2 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 Others n.a. 253.1 209.1 151.6 209.0 515.9 607.9 704.3 943.0 n.a. 19.8 13.6 8.9 10.2 11.1 10.5 11.1 13.5 Eastern luroe '716 11.1 104.1 328.8 483.2 59.53 884.5 1,012.72 746.0 0.6 0.9 1±4 15±4 _5.6 17.0 1S.4 16.0 10.7 USSR 2.5 6.8 60.5 195.3 279.8 481.6 507.7 767.1 500.4 0.2 0.5 4.5 11.5 13.7 10.3 8.8 12.1 7.2 Others 5.1 4.3 43.6 133.5 203.4 313.7 376.8 245.1 245.6 0.4 0.4 3.3 7.9 9.9 6.7 6.6 3.9 3.5 Western Eurcop 47 503.6 A 5±4 400.4 1,114.5 1,745.2 1 ,847.2 2174.0 57. 4 58.0 37.3 27.2 19.6 23.95 9.23 51 3.2 Belgium 20.2 18.9 11.1 20.0 27.1 52.5 128.7 236.2 283.6 1.6 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 2.2 3.7 4.1 France 17.7 15.0 18.5 23.6 24.0 99.6 199.6 170.7 216.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 2.1 3.5 2.7 3.1 West Germany 21.4 31.3 41.0 38.1 43.1 136.3 057.3 285.5 334.0 1.7 2.5 3.0 2.2 2.1 2.9 4.5 4.5 4.8 Netherlands 20.2 32.4 17.9 16.5 18.6 95.0 217.7 160.1 220.9 1.6 2.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 2.1 3.8 2.5 3.2 U.K. 282.5 348.9 362.3 306.1 227.3 486.9 583.3 613.4 646.8 22.4 27.3 27.0 18.1 11.1 10.5 10.1 9.7 9.3 Others 46.7 38,8 52.0 56.1 60.4 244.0 558.6 381.3 472.1 3.7 3.0 4.0 3.3 2.9 5.2 6.2 6.0 6.8 GRAND TOTAL 1261. 1,278.9 1,.86.5 1,691.8 .046.9 .i/ 4664.6 6,31S.4 6,976.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100 a/ Middle Eastern OPEC cnly _ includes Babrein, Kuwait, Qatar & IAE. 4/ Includes Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, MYscat and Oman, S. Yemen, lyric & Yemen. _/ Unadjusted total. Due to a change in reccrding technique, the D0GCIS data procably cmerstate expcrte by about 5% in 1970/71. f/ Inoludes Yugoslavia. Sourcee: 1. Ministry of Csosree, Departmant of Co-ercial Intolligonoe & Statistics, Monthly Statistics of the Foreign Trade of India. 2. Ministry of Comeroes,Office of ths Economic Adviser. Table 5.7 ORIGIN OF IYPORTS 1953/Si 1955/56 1~96-07 i.sl56 1 /1 fil 7 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1999 1979/76 1976/77 ±alh Melon (excluding D.A.R) 177S999 108.7 70.5 1 09 5 219.3 312.8 1656 11.0 9 4.6 2.6 8.0 1.5 .4±5 2.0 Acerioa 5G9.9 210.0 740.0 1,194.9 781.3 1 7593A 1,368.9 1,297.0 1,31 22. 7 2di 4-7 5i24 2 .49± 25.1 9-4 2j-4 18.9 19.9 5As 252.6 188.2 687.9 1,123.7 603.9 1,485.3 1,178.0 882.7 925.2 18.5 13.2 29.2 38.0 27.7 24.4 20.8 12.6 11.2 Canada 45.1 14.3 41.7 64.1 156.3 268.1 144.8 211.6 292.6 3.3 1.0 1.8 2.2 7.2 4.4 2.5 3.0 3.5 Others 12.2 7.5 10.4 7.1 21.1 40.0 46.1 202.7 99.6 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 1.0 o.6 0.8 2.9 1.2 Asia and Oceania (including U.A.R) 424.6 409.9 A475.15 535.9 45.15 2,075± 2.254.2 2,651.8 3.163.1 31.1 28.8 20.1 18.1 20.8 54±i 59.7 52.7 58.5 (a) Middle East n.a. 146.6 152.9 146.7 223.0 1.57,.5 1,489.6 1.570.S 1,726.4 na. 10.3 625 5 S 10.2 22.6 26.2 22.5 20.9 Iran 77.8 30.2 62.1 71.6 122.2 531.5 568.3 634.7 429.5 5.7 2.1 2.6 2.4 5.6 8.7 10.0 9.0 5.2 Iced n.a. 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.1 286.4 313.4 386.7 710.7 n.a. ..3 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.7 5.5 5.5 8.6 Saudi Arabia n.e. 32.0 29.8 18.2 32.2 335.3 371.4 288.2 237.6 n.e. 2.3 1.3 0.6 1.5 5.5 6.6 4.1 2.9 Other OPEC 5/ n.a. 24.7 13.6 4.5 8.1 187.8 193.2 225.5 208.9 0.0. 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.4 3-1 3.4 3.2 3.5 0.A.R. 71.0 48.6 34.5 41.9 53.1 21.9 23.7 16.4 17.2 5.2 3.4 1.4 1.4 2.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 Other. / n.e. 6.3 9.3 6.o 3.3 14.4 15.6 19.0 42.5 na. 0.5 0.4 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 (b) Other Asia and Oceania a. 263.3 519.4 389.2 230.3 695±S 760.6 1.081.5 1.4536.7 na, 18.5 13.6 13.1 10.6 11, 13±5 15.4 17L4 4 Japan 21.8 69.9 127.6 166.6 111.2 417.4 332.7 499.2 687.8 1.6 4.9 S.4 5.6 5.1 6.9 5.8 7.1 8.3 Auetralia 71.0 78.5 7.4 50.8 48.8 117.5 278.9 84.6 111.6 5.2 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.9 4.9 1.2 1.4 Others n.a. 164.9 154.4 171.8 70.3 163.6 157.0 497.5 637.3 n.a. 11.6 6.6 5.8 3.2 2.7 2.8 7.1 7.7 Eastern Europe 91'.0 22.9 95.1 329.0 30915 666.7 555.5 176.9 787.2 1.3 1.6 4.- 11.1 15.9 11.0 9.5 10.3 91 S IISSR 0.6 12.8 33.3 174.7 141.5 358.0 353.6 521.3 571.6 0.1 0.9 1.4 5.9 6.5 5.9 6.2 7.4 6.9 Othere 14.4 10.1 59.8 154.3 162.0 308.7 201.9 205.6 215.6 1.0 0.7 2.6 5.2 7.4 5.1 3.6 2.9 2.6 Western Europe 438.5 682.9 °.40.5 822.8 467.5 1,458.9 1.278.1 2.042.0 2.55.1 32.1 479 359.9 27-8 21.4 23.6 22.5 29.0 54.3 Belgian 19.1 25.6 32.0 24.2 15.3 100.10 64.0 179.0 434.4 1.4 1.8 3.4 0.8 0.7 1.6 1.1 2.5 5.3 Pranoe 23.2 32.8 44.4 37.0 28.4 227.1 157.0 185.0 274.5 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.3 1.3 3.7 2.8 2.6 3.3 West Germany 21.8 126.9 257.3 288.0 143.3 427.5 354.4 647.9 763.1 1.6 8.9 10.9 9.7 6.6 7.0 6.2 9.2 9.2 Netherlands 14.0 29.6 22.1 41.4 25.5 73.8 73.2 95.9 192.3 1.0 2.3 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.3 U.K. 284.0 362.1 456.0 315.2 169.0 328.2 410.2 538.4 69o.o 20.8 25.4 19.4 10.7 7.8 5.4 7.2 7.7 8.4 Others 76.2 105.9 128.5 115.9 85.6 282.3 219.3 395.8 478.8 5.6 7.4 5.4 3.9 4.0 4.7 3'9 5.6 5.8 GRAND TOTA1 L 3,-65-. 1,425.6 2.355S4 2151 2.178.9 6.084.35 9.676.0 7.05015 8,269.5 100.0 100.1 100.0 100.0 101.0 * 100 100.0 100.0 100.0 8.2-72.8 Sc/ M' Middle Ea=tern OPEC only - includes Bahrein, Kuwait, Qatar & TAE. 3/ Includes Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Muscat and 0ae, S. Yemen, Syria t Y-men. ./ Reoiced totai. - Sources: 1. 4initsty of Commerce, Depart.ent of Coamrcial Ietelligenco & Statistics, Monthly Statistios of the rorifn_a4e of India. 2. Ministry of Commeroe, Offi-s of the E-comcic Advisor. - 173 - Table 3.8 EXTERNAL RESERVES (US $ million) End of the Year Foreign Reserve Position Overall Use of IMF (Anril-March) Gold Exchange SDRs in the Fund Reserves Credit Net Reserves (1) (2) (3) (4) (1+2+3+4) (6) (5-6) (5) (7) 1950/51 247 1,809 a/ - - 2,056 72 a/ 1,984 1955/56 247 1,620 b/ - 15 b/ 1,882 - 1,882 1960/61 247 391 - - 638 63 575 1965/66 243 383 - - 626 215 411 1966/67 243 395 - - 638 356 282 1968/69 243 526 - - 769 340 429 1970/71 243 584 149 76 1,052 - 1,052 1971/72 264 661 269 83 1,277 - 1,277 1972/73 293 629 297 92 1,311 - 1,311 1973/74 293 736 296 92 1,417 75 1,342 1974/75 303 782 293 - 1,378 620 758 1975/76 281 1,657 234 - 2,172 807 1,365 1976/77 290 3,240 217 - 3,747 471 3,276 1977/78 318 5,305 200 - 5,823 155 5,668 1978/79 377 6,421 470 89 7,357 - 7,357 End of the Month 1978 March 318 5,305 200 - 5,823 155 5,668 June 355 5,471 219 95 6,140 250 5,890 September 366 5,775 283 98 6,522 - 6,522 December 382 6,042 294 90 6,808 - 6,808 1979 March 377 6,421 470 89 7,357 - 7,357 June 378 6,708 429 191 7,706 - 7,706 September 386 6,988 464 203 8,041 - 8,041 December 407 6,823 489 213 7,932 - 7,932 a/ At the end of 1950. b/ At the end of 1955. Sources: 1. IMF, International Financial Statistics. 2. World Bank estimates. 0' It, -> 00 SO0i° ° -1 ff °t 0'" '-000P t In> r, t 000ff f f _F '0 1 0 0 > 0 l, et _0 01 0 0 .... ..... DnIt DNOS o10 n ' o 0) 0 1° 0' 0' a *~~~~~~~~~2 _ 1 o o 10 '1 0 01 0 Ir C~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ u It 1 It 0.0>5... 0'I o > It > 0 c '-.' H 'o 01 s V I a 1 1 O azg e e , 2-02- o. 0 01 tO 00> < I _, oo oa 2-k >0 1 1 1 S'0 E . 2- 010 01K F 0 03 2! _I I I La L a 20 n '( > o I 9- I 1017X4 _ '0 00 .1 >00 M I OS 0 '0 01 N -.U ff.001 0W 01 0' @.0 o°. 01 '0 00 '0 '0 ; 2~~~~ II 20l' -i 5I Iv 9~~~~~~~~~ n 1._ s 1 001 L- ~ 00 0 '0 10 .k-0-.'^-0 K 0 o w 1 0 ~ 0 0 0 o It_ o 01~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 0.00 1 1 0 0 '0~ ~ ~ ~ ~ _ I I '0 I _ "0 01 If f I0 00 I 0 1 0 0 > 0_rLNHL S He > I- s I ~~~~ Z oe cc H I o w b I o o I M o c Wo g H~~~~~02 2 o ° LS 10>0 10 wo wlo g o l Table 4.1 AID AN8D DEBT SUIlMARY (OSS mill]ion) E'tismted 1960/61 1961/62 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 196S/66 66 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1971 /72 3 19 7/M 1274/75 1975/72 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 IConsortium Members Grosa Disbursenents 858 688 885 1,171 1 378 1.531 4,495 1,548 1,206 1,113 1,099 1, 167 295 1.03 1.509 1.64 9 1.292 10500 1,62 2 Of which: Projeot Aid a/ ) ) ) ) ) ) 422 301 303 204 247 325 358 422 394 592 662 687 761 1,017 449) 468) 611) 748) 873) 968) Non-Projrct Aid ./ ) ) ) ) ) ) 428 689 549 584 573 579 497 d/ 592 d/ 807 4/ 706 651 447 575 546 Food Aid S/ 409 220 274 423 505 563 645 558 354 325 279 263 70 81 102 351 276 158 164 159 Debt Service 108 17S 160 188 252 292 302 53 3 406 454 46S 516 541 651 675 680 679 722 804 829 Net Transfer 750 555 725 983 1,146 1,239 1,195 1,215 800 679 654 651 584 444 630 545 910 565 696 293 II Non-Consort ountrines GCron Disbursem-ntp 25 54 72 11S 172 136 y8 55 114 120 77 29 41 182 458 692 504 536 197 255 Of .hiob: Projeot Aid 8/ ) ) ) ) ) 85 84 107 110 74 27 41 43 34 199 105 163 176 205 25) 54) 72) 115) 172 126 ) Non-Projeot Aid / ) ) ) 15) 12) 1 1 1 - - - _ 284 455 251 147 - 8 Food Aid n.a. n.a. 0.0. n.a. n.a. 10 12 10 6 9 3 2 - 139 140 39 8 26 19 42 Debt Ssrvice 14 16 25 3 5 26 75 55 111 94 116 15S 128 117 114 112 106 450 210 236 219 Not Tranofer 11 38 49 90 146 115 55 _ 16 .19 4 -S8 599 5 76 68 546 S86 214 126 -41 36 III Total Conoortila A Nqn-Corsortiur. Groso Disburgesento 883 742 957 1,286 1.';S 1.667 ,55 1,645 1,320 4,255 1,76 1.196 966 1,27 1,761 2,541 1,953 1.628 1.695 1,877 Of mhioh, frojeot Aid 5)/ ) 6 ) 0 ) 79 57 385 410 314 321 352 399 465 428 791 767 850 937 1,222 N-P-Jeot Aid 474) 522) 687) a6~1,045)) 1.05 4) 5 Non-ProJect Aid 474) 522) 6 ) 7 ) 433 690 550 585 573 579 497 d/ 597 / 1,091 d/ 1,167 902 593 55 454 Food Aid S/ 409 220 274 423 505 573 655 568 758 334 282 265 70 220 242 383 284 184 133 201 Debt Service 122 121 183 215 258 5 555 444 500 5 5 500 644 658 765 785 786 824 959 L4 040 148 iedt Sranofr 761 51 774 4,275 1,292 1.5S2 l,22 1,199 020 683 576 _52 308 512 976 1,555 1.124 689 655 829 Debt Servrioe Patio-8/ (%) 8.8 13.4 17.7 12.8 15.1 18.6 23.1 27.8 27.6 29.2 30.8 29.8 25.7 23.6 18.8 16.8 14.4 14.9 14.9 10.5 I/ Inludes S-ppliers credits. 8/ In-ludes debt relief, bet excludes food aid and PL 480 -eistan. o/ Inolude: all PL 480 aseistance, both food and non-food. /Ifludes some food oid, for mbich neparste data -ore not ovoiloble. 8/ Debt cervi-e dieided by -rchrbdiee exp-ots. OSwros: 1. BMinistry of Finanoe, Depa-i-ent of Eoonolio Affairs. E. inbonsies in Ne- Delhi. - 176 - Table 4.2 (a) GROSS AND NET AID FLOWS - 1978/79- (US$ million) b/ Gross Disbursements Debt Principal Net Aid Interest Net Aid Project Relief Food Other Total Repayments Disbursements Payments Transfer A. Consortium Members Austria - - - 0.2 0.2 3.2 - 3.0 1.2 - 4.2 Belgium _ - - 13.1 13.1 0.6 12.5 0.9 11.6 Canada 14.7 - 4.5 9.9 29.1 11.0 18.1 3.0 15.1 Denmark 13.5 c/ 1.4 . 4.6 19.5 1.3 18.2 0.1 18.1 France 17.9 - - 27.9 45.8 25.5 20.3 17.8 2.5 Germany 74.1 - - 85.0 159.1 105.3 53.8 47.1 6.7 Italy - - - - - 1.8 - 1.8 1.4 - 3.2 Japan 28.4 - - 88.0 116.4 61.7 54.7 50.3 4.4 Netherlands - - - 82.7 82.7 5.7 77.0 10.2 66.8 Norway d/ 13.2 - - 7.1 20.3 - 20.3 - 20.3 Sweden 13.5 - - 45.0 58.5 - 58.5 - 58.5 U.K. 45.2 - - 208.9 254.1 49.3 204.8 11.9 192.9 U.S.A. n.s. - 159.5 - 159.5 100.4 59.1 65.0 - 5.9 Sub-total 220.5 1.4 164.0 572.4 958.3 365.8 592.5 208.9 383.6 IBRD 180.1 - - - 180.1 72.7 107.4 48.7 58.7 IDA 325.2 - - 1.7 326.9 10.6 316.3 26.7 289.6 Sub-total 505.3 - - 1.7 507.0 83.3 423.7 75.4 348.3 Total 725.8 1.4 164.0 574.1 1,465.3 449.1 1.016.2 284.3 731.9 B. East European Countries Bulgaria - - - - - - - - Czechoslovakia 0.4 - - - 0.4 4.9 - 4.5 1.2 -5.7 GDR - - - - - - - - Hungary 1.3 _ _ _ 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 Poland 0.1 - _ _ 0.1 1.9 - 1.8 0.3 -2.1 Rumania - - - USSR 26.2 _ _ _ 26.2 134.4 e/ -108.2 0.1 -108.3 Yugoslavia - - - - - 0.1 - 0.1 0.s. - 0.1 Total 28.0 - - - 28.0 142.1 -114.1 1.9 -116.0 C. OPEC Countries Iran 87.0 - - - 87.0 - 87.0 23.7 63.3 Iraq - - 22.5 -22.5 2.8 f/ - 25.3 Kuwait 15.0 - - - 15.0 - 15.0 2.0 13.0 Saudi Arabia 3.9 - - - 3.9 _ 3.9 - 3.9 UAE - - - - - - - 2.0 - 2.0 OPEC Fund 14.0 - - - 14.0 - 14.0 0.1 13.9 Qatar - - - - - 1.0 -1.0 n.s. -1.0 Total 119.9 - - - 119.9 23.5 96.4 30.6 65.8 D. Others Switzerland 5.4 - - - 5.4 3.8 1.6 1.3 0.3 EEC 2.6 - 18.8 - 21.4 - 21.4 - 21.4 Spain - - - - . - Total 8.0 - 18.8 - 26.8 3.8 23.0 1.3 21.7 E. GRAND TOTAL 881.7 1.4 182.8 574.1 1,640. 618.5 1.021. 318.1 703.4 a/ Suppliers' credits are excluded. b/ Converted from creditor currencies using average market rates for 1978/79 as published in the IMF, International Financial Statistics. Data on aid flows from East European countries have been converted from rupees. The exchange rates used are as follows (units of currency per US dollar): Austria 14.187 France 4.3906 Netherlands 2.1082 India 8.206 Belgium 30.665 Germany 1.9533 Norway 5.2022 Kuwait 0.2739 Canada 1.1590 Italy 842.98 Sweden 4.4485 Saudi Arabia 3.3703 Denmark 5.3831 Japan 201.43 U.K. 0.5150 Switzerland 1.7245 c/ Relates to the first nine months of the year only. d/ Disbursement data relate to the calendar year 1978. e/ Includes US$ 85.8 million repayment of 1973 USSR wheat loan. f/ Excludes US$ 4.5 million of interest due to Iraq in 1978/79 that has been capitalized. S-urces- 1. Ministry of Finance, Departmn-t of Economic Affairs. 2. Embassies in New Delhi. - 177 - Table 4.2 tb) ESTIMATED GROSS AND NET AID FLOWS 1979/80 (08$ million) h Gross Disbursements c/ Debt Principal Net Aid Interest Net Aid Prolect Relief Food Other Total Repsyments Disbursements Payments Transfer A. Consortium Members Austria - - 0.5 0.5 2.9 - 2.4 1.0 -3.4 Belgium - 1.4 - 4.2 5.6 0.9 4.7 0.9 3.8 Canada 22.2 - 16.7 - 38.9 11.8 27.1 2.5 24.8 Denmark 13.2 _ _ 5,2 18.4 1.8 16.6 ns. 16.6 France 28.9 15.8 44.7 31.3 13.4 19.8 -6.4 Germany 94.755.0 149.7 111.3 38.4 47.8 -9.4 Italy - - - 2.0 - 2.0 1.4 -3.4 Japan 53.7 4.7 dl - 23.9 82,3 58.8 23.5 43*9 -20.4 Netherlands 12.1 - - 9447 94.7 8.0 86.7 11.9 74.8 Norway 7,1 - _ 10.8 22.9 - 22.9 - 22.9 Sweden 60.3 _ - 50.8 57.9 - 57.9 - 57.9 U.K. 26.0 179.2 239.9 55.6 183.9 11.5 172.4 U.S.A. - 142.1 - 168.1 94.6 73.5 68.6 4.7 Sub-total 318.2 6.1 158.8 440.1 923.2 379.0 544.2 209,5 334.7 IBRD 146.9 - - - 146.9 71.6 75.3 57.2 18.1 IDA 546.4 - - - 546.4 13.0 533.4 29.8 503.6 Sub-total bY3_3 6 _93.3 84.6 608.7 87.0 521.7 Total 1,011.5 6 158.8 440.1 1,616.5 463.6 1,152.9 296.5 856.4 B. East European Countries Bulgaria - - - - . - . - - Czechoslovakia 1.7 - - - 1.7 5.5 -3.8 1.0 -4.8 GDR - - - - - - - - Hungary U.s. - - - n.s. 1.3 -1.3 0.4 -1.7 Poland 1.6 -1.6 0.3 -1.9 Rumania - - - - - - USSR 43.2 - - _ 43.2 55.3 -12.1 12.0 -24.1 Yugoslavia - - - - - n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. Total 44.9 - - - 63.7 -18.8 13.7 -32.5 C. OPEC Countries Iran 15.5 - - - 15.5 53.0 -37.5 24.9 -62.4 Iraq - - - 1.8 1.8 22.5 - 20.7 4.0 -24.8 Kuwait 3.6 - - - 3.6 - 3.6 2.2 1.4 Saudi Arabia 53.5 - - 53.5 - 53.5 0.5 53.0 UAE 10.6 - - - 10.6 - 10.6 2.2 8.4 OPEC Fund 1.2 - - - 1.2 - 1.2 0.2 1.0 Qatar - - - - - - - Total 84.4 _ - 1.8 86.2 75.5 10.7 34.0 -23.3 D. Others Switzerland 15.0 - - 5.7 20.7 3.3 17.4 1.5 15.9 EEC 60.0 - 41.9 - 101.9 - 101.9 - 101.9 Spain - - - - - - - - Total 75.0 - 41.9 5.7 122.6 3.3 119.3 1.5 117.8 E. GRAND TOTAL 1,215.8 6.1 200,7 447.6 1.870,2 606.1 1,264.1 345.7 918.4 a/ Suppliers' credits are excluded. b/ Converted from creditor currencies using average market rates for April through December 1979 as published in the IMF International Financial Statistics. Data on aid flows frum East European countries have been converted from rupees. The exchange rates used are as follows (units of currency per US dollar): Austria 13.295 France 4.2499 Netherlands 2.0071 India 8.104 Belgium 29.330 Germany 1.8256 Norway 5.0568 Kuwait 0.2769 Canada 1.1664 Italy 828.11 Sweden 4.2635 Saudi Denmark 5.2960 Japan 225.07 U.K. 0.4640 Arabia 3.3662 UAE 3.8082 Switzerland 1.6585 c/ For the purposes of consistent treatment if diverse flows, the concept of disbursement used in this table is the same as that used by the Government of India an' may at times differ from the con-epts used by some donor countries. d/ By the definition of the Government of Japan, but not that of the Government of India, this amount was part of 1978/79 disbursements. By the definition of the Government of Japan, disbursements in this category amounted to US$11.9 million during 1979/80. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs. 2. Enbassies in New Delhi. - 178 - Table 4.3 (a) Al PROJECT AND NON-PROJECT AID PIPELINE 1978/79 (US S million) b/ Opening pipeline Disburseents Disburements Closing pipeline c/ on April 1. 1978 frms the pipeline New Comitment from New Commitments on March 31. 1979 Project Non-Project Project Non_Project Project Non-Project Project Non-PrJect Project Non-Project A. Consortia Members A-etria - 0.8 - 0.2 - - - - - 0.6 Belgisa - 17.0 _ 13.1 - 11.4 _ - - 11.3 Ca-da 11.6 18.7 1.8 9.9 12.9 15.1 12.9 4.5 5.0 0.9 De-ark 25.8 17.7 4.4 d/ 4.6 21.8 1.4 9.1 d/ 1.4 33.9 12.0 Prance 131.3 47.6 17.9 27.9 - - - - 113.4 19.7 Gereany 270.2 53.3 74.1 48.4 130.6 56.5 _ 36.6 326.7 24.8 Italy - n... - - - - - - - Japan 107.6 78.4 28.4 73.8 8.9 44.2 _ 14.2 85.7 34.2 Netherlands 7.6 126.5 82.7 98.2 _ 7.6 142.0 Norway _' 38.6 0.7 13.2 o.7 1.7 6.4 _ 6.4 27.1 Sweden 10.6 10.4 6.7 10.4 14.6 46.1 f/ 6.8 34.6 _/ 11.7 11.5 U.K. 135.6 220.0 29.4 162.9 145.6 174.9 15.8 46.0 235.4 184.2 U.S.A. n.s. 26.4 n... 26.4 60.0 133.1 - 133.1 60.0 - Sub-total 738.9 617.5 175.9 461.0 396.1 587.3 44.6 276.8 906.5 445.2 IBRD 619.0 - 145.8 _ 275.0 - 34.3 - 706.7 - IDA 1,499.3 1.7 315.4 1.7 1,554.5 - 9.8 - 2.728.7 - Sob-total 2.118.3 1.7 461.2 1.7 1.829.5 44 1 _ 3,435.4 - Total 2,857.2 619.2 637.1 462.7 2.225.6 - 88.7 276.8 4.341.9 445.2 B. East European Countries Bulgaria 10.1 3/ - - - - - - - - - Ceechoslovakia 86.5 - 0.4 - - - - - 86.1 - Nungary 7.7 - 1.3 . - _- - 6.4 - Poland 2.0 - 0.1 - - - - 1.9 - USSR 527.1 - 26.2 - 500.9 - Total 633.4 28.0 595.3 C. OPEC Countries Iran 461.8 - 87.0 - - - - - 374.8 Iraq- - - -- - - Kuwait 15.0 - 15.0 - 34.3 - - - 34.3 Saudi Arabi. 104.7 - 3.8 _ - - - - 100.9 uAe 10.2 - - - - - - - 10.2 OPEC Pund 14.0 - 14.0 - - Total 605.7 - 119.9 - 34.3 - - - 520.2 D. Others A-etrali- - - - 1.8 - 1.8 Swit.erland 19.3 - 5.4 - - - - - 11.8 EEC 19.1 5.7 2.6 5.7 - 13.1 - 13.1 16.5 - Total 38.4 5.7 8.0 5.7 - 14.9 - 13.1 28.3 1.8 E. GRAND TOTAL 4.134.7 624.9 793.0 468.4 2.259.9 602.2 88.7 289.9 5.485.7 447.0 a/ Eacl.ding supplier. credits, for which no pipeline data are available. b/ Converted from creditor currencies using average exchange rate. for 1978/79 as given in Table 4.2 (a). c/ Closing pipeline equals opening pipeline plus new cosmit-ents oess disburseont. and deobligatiosa (which totalled USS 39.0 million during 1978/79). d/ Relates to first nine -onthe of the year only. e/ Disburs-nents data relates to calendar year 1978. f/ Excludes write-off of outstanding debt. 3/ Credit lapsed on Decoaber 31, 1978. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance Department of E-onosic Affairs. 2. Embassies in New Delhi. - 179 - Table 4.3 (b) ESTIMATED PROJECT AND NON-PROJECT AID PIPELINE 1979/80 (US$ million) b/ Opening Pipeline c/ Disbursemaents Disbureme.atn Closing Pipeline d/ on April 1. 1979 - from the Pipeline New Coinnitments from New Cos nitments on Narch 31. 1980 - Pro-jct Non-Project Project Non-Project Project Non-Prolect Project Non-Project Pro1ect Non-Pro1ect A. Consortit- Members Austria - 0.6 - 0.5 - 9.5 - - - 9.6 Belgium - 16.0 - 4.3 - 11.9 - 1 4 - 22.2 Canada 4.9 0.9 0 7 - 21 4 17.1 21 4 16.8 4.2 - f/ Denmark 34.5 12.2 12.8 4.7 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 23.1 7.5 Prance 117.1 20.4 28.9 15.8 - - - - 88.3 4.6 Germany 349.6 26.5 94.7 16.7 139.7 57.5 - 38.3 394.6 29.0 Italy - - - - - - - - - Japan 76.7 30.6 53 7 17-5 - 11.1 _ 11.1 23.0 13.1 Netherlands 8.0 149.2 - 94.7 - 81.7 - - 8.0 136.2 Norway e/ 26.0 1.9 - 1.9 12.1 8.9 12.1 8.9 26.0 - Sweden 12.2 12.0 4.1 10.4 19.9 48.1 3.0 40.4 25.0 9.3 U.K. 161.7 304.1 60.3 133.9 150.9 194.6 - 45.3 252.2 319.5 U.S.A. 60.0 - 26.0 - 90.0 142.1 - 142.1 124.0 - Sub-total 350.7 574.4 281.2 300 3 4258 583.0 36.9 304.8 968.4 551.0 f/ IBRD 706.7 - 146.9 - 25.0 - - - 309.0 8 IDA 2,728.7 - 530.4 - 809.0 - 16.0 - 2,975.3 - Sub-total 3, 4354 - 677.3 1 059.0 - 16.0 37851 - Total 4286 5744 9585 30083 1 494 3 583.0 52.9 304.8 4,753.5 551.0 f/ B. East European Coontries C.echoslo-akia 87.2 - 1.7 - - _ _ _ 85.5 - Nungary 6.5 - n.s - - - - - 6.5 Poland 1.9 - - - - - - - 1.9 USSR 507.2 - 43.2 - - - - - 464.0 - Total 602.8 - 44.9 - - - - - 557.9 - C. OPEC Countries Iran 374.8 - - - 15.5 - 15.5 - 374.8 Iraq - - - - - 1.8 - 1 8 Kuwait 33.9 _ 3.6 - - - - - 30.3 - Saodi Arabia 101.0 - 53.5 - - - - 47. UAE 10.6 - 10.6 - - - - - - OPEC FPnd - - - - 20.0 - 1.2 - 18.8 Total 520.3 - 67.7 - 35.5 1.8 16.7 1.8 471.4 D. Others Swit-erland 12.2 - 8.6 - 24.1 - 12.1 - 15.6 - EEC 16.5 - 11.5 - 69.4 41.9 40.5 41.9 25.8 - IFAD - - 50.0 - - - 50.0 - Total 28.7 _ 20.1 - 143.5 41.9 60.6 L1j9 91.4 - E. GRAND TOTAL 5,437.9 574.4 1 091 2 300.3 1,673.8 626,7 130.2 348.5 5874 5510 a/ E.Icudes suppliers credits, for which no pipeline data are available. b/ Concerted from creditor currencies using average exchange rates for April through December 1979 as given in Table 4.2 (b). c/ Fig.res differ from closing pipeline data in Table 4.3 (a) due to eachange rate adjutment. d/ Closing pipeline equals opening pipeline plus new coitments less disbursements and amounts lapsed. e/ Disbursen--t data relate to calendar year 1979. ft Balanco of US$1.2 million bas lapsed. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs. 2. Embassies in New Delhi. - 180 - Table 4.4 EXTERNAL DEBT SERVICE PAYMENTS - 1978/79 TO 1980/81 / (US $ million) 1978/79 b 1979/80 (Estimated) - 1980/81 (Projected) - Principal Interest Total Principal Interest Total Principal Interest Total A. Consortium Members Austria 3.2 1.2 4.4 3.0 1.0 4.0 2.2 0.9 3.1 Belgium 0.6 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.2 0.9 2.1 Canada 11.0 3.0 14.0 11.8 2.5 14.3 12.1 2.0 14.1 Denmark 1.3 0.1 1.4 1.8 n.s. 1.8 1.8 n.s. 1.8 France 25.5 17.8 43.3 31.3 19.8 51.1 31.0 18.9 49.9 Germany 105.3 47.1 152.4 111.3 47.8 159.1 105.3 45.3 150.6 Italy 1.8 1.4 3.2 2.0 1.4 3.4 4.4 1.3 5.7 Japan 61.7 50.3 112.0 58.8 43.9 102.7 57.4 42.7 100.1 Netherlands 5.7 10.2 15.9 8.0 11.9 19.9 9.5 13.1 22.6 Norway - - - - - - - - - Sweden - - - U.K. 49.3 11.9 61.2 56.4 11.6 68.0 62.0 10.1 72.1 U.S.A. 100.4 65.0 165.4 94.6 68.8 163.4 99.7 70.4 170.1 Sub-total 365.8 208.9 574.7 379.9 209.6 589.5 386.6 205.6 592.2 IBRD 72.7 48.7 121.4 67.7 57.2 124.9 75.7 61.0 136.7 IDA 10.6 26.7 37.3 13.0 29.8 42.8 15.3 34.1 49.4 Sub-total 83.3 75.4 158.7 80.7 87.0 167.7 91.0 95.1 186.1 Total 449.1 284.3 733.4 460.6 296.6 757.2 477.6 300.7 778.3 B. East European Countries Bulgaria - - - - - - - Czechoslovakia 4.9 1.2 6.1 5.5 1.0 6.5 5.3 0.9 6.2 GDR - - - - - - - - - Nungary 0.8 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.4 1.7 1.4 0.3 1.7 Poland 1.9 0.3 2.2 1.6 0.3 1.9 1.5 0.2 1.7 Rumania - - - USSR 134.4 d/ 0.1 134.5 55.2 12.1 67.3 41.3 5.7 47.0 Yugoslavia 0.1 n.s. 0.1 n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s. Total 142.1 1.9 144.0 63.6 13.8 77.4 49.5 7.1 56.6 C. OPEC Countries Iran - 23.7 23.7 53.0 24.9 77.9 91.8 27.5 119.3 Iraq 22.5 2.8 e/ 25.3 22.5 4.0 26.5 30.1 3.5 33.6 Kuwait - 2.0 2.0 - 2.2 2.2 - 2.6 2.6 UAE _ 2.0 2.0 - 2.2 2.2 - 2.4 2.4 OPEC Fund . 0.1 0.1 - 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 Qatar 1.0 n.s. 1.0 - - - - Saudi Arabia - - - - 0.5 0.5 - 1.6 1.6 Total 23.5 30.6 54.1 75.5 34.0 109.5 121.9 37.8 159.7 D. Others Switzerland 3.8 1.3 5.1 3.3 1.5 4.8 2.7 1.5 4.2 Spain - - - - - - - Total 3.8 1.3 5.1 3.3 1.5 4.8 2.7 1.5 4.2 E. GRAND TOTAL 618.5 318.1 936.6 603.0 345.9 948.9 651.7 347.1 998.8 a!/ Suppliers' credits are excluded. b/ Converted from creditor currencies using average exchange rates for 1978/79 as given in Table 4.2 (a). c/ Converted from creditor currencies using average exchange rates for 1979/80 as given in Table 4.2 (b). d/ Includes USS 85.8 million repayment of 1973 USSR wheat loan. e/ Excludes US$ 4.5 million of interest due to Iraq in 1978/79 that has been capitalized. Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs. 2. Embassies in New Delhi. - 181 - Table 4.5 GROSS AND NET FLOWS O0 SUPPLIERS' CREDITS (is$ million) 1978-79 (Actual) a/ 1979-80 (Estimated)L/ Gross Principal Net Interest Net Gross Principal Net Interest Net Disbursenments Repy.ts Disbursenent Pa yants Transfer Disbursements atests Disb-rents t8n(g-s Transfer A. Consortium Members Austria 31.7 0.7 31.0 0.2 30.8 5.1 -5.1 3.3 - 8.4 Belgium - 7.9 -7 9 2.4 -10.3 - 8.0 -8.0 2.0 -10.0 Canada Denmark - 0.8 - 0.8 - - 0.8 - 0.8 -0.8 0.1 - 0.9 France - 8.1 - 8.1 1.1 - 9.2 - 4.6 -4.6 0.7 - 5.3 Germany - 10.2 -10.2 3.4 -13.6 - 9.9 9.9 3.0 -12.9 Italy 1.3 14.9 -13.6 3.1 -16.7 3.2 13.0 -9.8 2.3 -12.1 Japan 2.2 8.6 - 6.4 2.7 - 9.1 2.0 8.3 -6.3 1.8 - 8.1 Netherlands - 1.7 - 1.7 0.2 - 1.9 - 1.6 -1.6 0.1 - 1.7 Norway 0.5 0.5 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.4 -0.4 0.1 - 0.5 Swedes _ 1.8 - 1.8 0.2 - 2.0 1.7 -1.7 0.1 - 1.8 U.K. - 0.8 - 0.8 0.5 - 1.3 - 0.8 -0.8 0.4 - 1.2 U.S.A. - 0.7 0.7 0.1 - 0.8 - 0.5 -0.5 n.0. - 0.5 Sub-total 35.2 56.7 -21.5 14.0 -35.5 5.2 54.7 -49.5 13.9 -63.4 IBRD - - - - - - - - - - IDA - - - - - - - - - - Sub- total - - - - - - Total 35.2 56.7 -21.5 14.0 -35.5 5.2 54.7 -49.5 13.9 -63.4 B. East European Cou-tries Bulgaria - 0.2 - 0.2 n.s. - 0.2 - 0.2 -0.2 0.0. - 0.2 Czechoslovakia - 0.7 - 0.7 0.2 - 0.9 - 0.7 -0.7 0.2 - 0.9 GDR - 4.9 - 4.9 1.0 - 5.9 - 5.0 -5.0 0.8 - 5.8 Hongary - 0.5 - 0.5 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.3 -0.3 0.1 - 0.4 Polund 0.2 n.s. 0.2 n.s. 0.2 0.8 0.s. 0.8 n.s. 0.8 :.umani - 4.1 - 4.1 0.8 - 4.9 - 4.1 -4.1 0.7 - 4.8 UScR 0.5 1.1 - 0.6 0.2 - 0.8 0.5 1.1 -0.6 0.2 - 0.8 Yugosl-via 19.3 14.0 5.3 3.8 1.5 - 13.1 -13.1 0.0. -13.1 Total 20.0 25,5 5.5 6 -11.6 13 24.5 -23.2 2.0 -25.2 C. OPEC Countries Iran Iraq Kuwa iit Saudi Arabia UAE - - - - - - - - - - OPEC F-nd Qatar - - - - - - - - - - Total S. Others Switoerland - n.s. EEC - - - _ - _ _ - _ _ Spain _ 1.2 - 1.2 0.2 - 1.4 - 1.2 -1.2 0.1 -1.3 Total - 1.2 -.2 0.2 - 1.4 - 1.2 -1.2 0.1 -1.3 E. GRAND TOTAL 55.2 83.4 -28.2 20.3 -48.5 6.5 80.4 -73.9 16_0 -89.9 a/ C-nverted from creditor currencies using average market rates for 1978/79 as published in the IMP, International Financial Statistics. Data on aid flows from East European countries have been converted from rupees. The enchange rates used are as follows (units of currency per US dollar): Austria 14.187 France 4.3906 Netherlanis 2.1082 India 8.206 Belgium 30.665 Germany 1.9533 Norway 5.2022 Kuwait 0.2739 Canada 1.1590 Italy 842.98 Sweden 4.4485 Saudi Arabia 3.3703 Dnomark 5.3631 Japan 201.43 U.K. 0.5150 Switeerland 1.7245 bh Conv-rred fron creditor rurrencies at ecchsnge rates shown in Table 4.2 (b). Sources: 1. Ministry of Finance, Departeent of Ecunomic Affai-s. 2. Embannies in New Delhi. - 182 - Table 5.1 CONSOLIDATED FINANCES OF CENTRAL & STATE GOVERNtENTS Al (in Ra billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979180 (Revised (Budget Entisates) istinates) Revenue Receipts 7.86 10.27 17.73 37.04 A4&14 58.63 87.89 136.87 152.58 164.35 183.65 205.29 Tea Revenue 6.27 7.68 13.50 29.22 37.59 47.52 73.89 111.82 123.32 132.37 149.91 167.76 Direct T.eno (2.31) (2.59) (4.02) ( 7.34) ( 8.40) (10.09) (15.52) (24.93) (25.85) ( 26.80) ( 28.79) ( 31.76) Indirect Taxes (3.96) (5.09) (9.48) (21.88) (29.19) (37.43) (58.36) (86.89) (97.47) (105.57) (121.12) (136.00) Nun-Tux Revenue 1.55 2.41 3.74 6.88 10.42 11.06 13.96 23.48 27.60 30.33 32.94 36.48 Other 0.04 0.18 0.49 0.94 0.13 0.05 0.04 1.57 0.97 1.65 0.79 1.05 Revenue Expendittres 7.31 10.30 16.98 34.18 47.13 57.17 86.70 118.47 138.63 149.86 177.26 194.90 Non-Deveiopmental 5.19 6.12 9.53 19.76 27.83 33.52 51.27 66.64 75.85 77.63 90.02 96.97 Dev.lop.ental 2.09 3.96 6.91 13.39 18.87 23.37 35.39 49.90 60.25 69.23 84.43 95.05 Other 0.03 0.22 0.54 1.03 0.43 0.28 0.04 1.93 2.53 3.00 2.81 2.88 Capital Inpenditure- 1.69 4.07 9.76 20.46 17.15 21.28 28.03 54.58 59.50 61.96 78.41 77.46 Ron-Developm-estsl 0.26 0.42 0.81 1.64 1.53 3.40 2.24 4.79 3.59 3.23 5.40 3.52 Developnental 1.18 2.71 5.70 10.49 8.65 12.01 17.67 31.91 32.27 38.74 45.23 48.76 Loans and Advannen (net) 0.25 0.94 2.59 7.54 6.97 5.87 8.12 17.88 23.64 19.99 27.78 25.18 Other - - 0.66 0.79 - - - - - - Capital Receipts 1.19 2.10 7.52 13.62 13.51 16.23 19.09 38.24 42.15 49.85 56.00 50.09 Market borruwings (net) - 0.04 0.83 1.38 2.24 1.56 2.60 6.29 7.32 10.40 13.87 18.47 20.81 Snail Savings (net) 0.34 0.67 1.04 1.51 1.14 1.84 4.74 3.93 4.13 5.45 6.00 6.50 Other 0.89 0.60 5.10 9.87 10.81 11.79 8.06 26.99 27.62 30.53 31.53 22.78 Overall Surpleu/D.ficit 0.05 - 2.00 - 1.49 _ 3.98 - 2.63 - 3.59 - 7.75 2.06 - 3.40 2.38 -16.02 - 16.98 Finuncin. Trneasry Bills 0.22 1.33 0.78 2.88 2.60 4.00 5.33 3.82 0.63 22.57 -10.68 13.80 Ways 6& Mean Advances - 0.04 - 0.03 0.14 - 0.05 0.22 0.31 - 0.32 0.03 0.35 - 0.97 n.s. RBI Long Tern Support n. 0.41 2.03 0.67 - 0.50 - 0.65 2.32 - 1.93 -1.94 -0.79 0.25 - Changes in Cash Balances - 0.23 0.26 0.21 0.29 0.58 0.02 - 0.21 - 3.63 4.68 -24.51 27.42 3.18 a! Centre-Stare transfers have been netted oat. In those cases where the anount of the transf-en differs as between Cencre and State acouont., the aFount registered in the Central account han been used. Duo to changes is budgetary closoification, the data frm 1975/76 onwards are not enactly comparable to those for previous yearn. Source: Ministry of Finance. -183 - Tabl. 5.2 CENTRAL G-OVUUN8T FINANCELS (in go billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970171 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 (Revised (Budget Eatioates) E.tioates) Revense, Receipts 4.39 5.37 10.03 23.39 27.81 33.16 50.32 79.58 86.18 95.91 107.71 108.95 Tax Reveae /3.57 4.11 7.30 17.85 20.19 24.51 39.00 60.10 65.81 70.60 82.07 80.22 Direct Teas. (1.28) (1.14) (2.02) ( 4.68) ( 4.98) ( 5.04) (8.36) (14.63) (16.66) (17.20) (18.59) (20.36) Indirect Texas (2.29) (2.97) (5.28) (13.17) (15.21) (19.47) (30.63) (45.47) (49.15) (53.40) (63.48) (59.86) Non-Tax Savenna 0.82 1.13 2.31 4.70 7.56 8.63 11.28 18.39 19.68 24.49 25.41 28.59 Other - 0.13 0.42 0.84 0.06 0.02 0.04 1.09 0.70 0.82 0.23 0.14 Revenue Expenditures 3.85 4.85 9.53 20.19 27.00 31.53 47.96 70.71 83.20 91.62 108.99 111.07 Nfoo-Develop"ental -/ 3.33 3.55 5.72 13.31 18.11 20.84 31.92 46.02 52.36 54.13 61.79 66.21 OeVelop.eetal .1/ 0.27 0.67 1.25 2.54 3.45 4.50 6.14 10.71 13.92 17.06 19.99 23.70 Grants to states 0.25 0.60 2.13 3.50 5.39 6.17 9.86 12.89 16.22 19.61 26.99 21.02 Other . 0.13 0.43 0.84 0.03 0.02 0.04 1.09 0.70 0.82 0.22 0.14 Capital Ex,,endituraa 1.25 3.82 7.78 16.62 11.83 15.72 20.58 39.16 40.80 41.09 57.34 50.92 Non-Dev.lop.e.t.1 0.16 0.37 0.64 1.58 1.24 3.50 2.35 4.65 3.03 2.62 5.24 3.29 Developumetal 0.50 0.77 2.66 5.00 3.06 6.12 7.39 17.85 15.47 19.80 20.21 21.93 Loans end Advance (.et) 0.59 2.68 3.82 9.25 7.53 6.10 10.14 16.66 22.30 18.67 31.89 25.70 Other . 0.66 0.79 . . 0.70 - - . - Capital Receinta 0.61 1.33 6.03 ~11.40 9.03 11.84 12.22 32.18 344 40.01 39.40 39.24 Market Borroin.p (net) -0.11 0.35 0.72 1.24 8.79 1.44 4.64 4.56 8.45 11.85 16.53 18.50 Smell Savings (net) 0.34 0.67 1.04 1.51 1.14 1.84 4.74 3.93 4.13 5.45 6.00 6.50 Other 0.38 0.31 4.27 8.65 7.10 8.56 2.84 23.69 21.87 22.71 16.87 14.24 Overall 8ucolus0ficit -0.10 -2.07 -1.25 -2.02 -1.99 - 2.25 - 6.00 1.90 - 3.3 3.21 .19.22 -13.80 Financina Treasury Bi11s 0.22 1.33 .0.78 2.88 2.60 4.00 5.33 3.82 0.63 22.57 -10.68 13.80 RBI Long-Tarm Support n.e. 0.41 2.03 0.67 .0.50 - 0.65 2.32 -1.93 - 1.94 - 0.79 0.25 Changes io Cash flalances 0.12 0.36 0.25 *0.45 .0.48 * 0.74 - 1.21 .4.80 4.72 .23.46 25.18 ps Changes in Treasury Bill. Holdings by States n.e. -0.03 -0.25 -1.08 0.37 - 0.36 - 0.44 1.01 * 0.04 0.47 4.47- I/ Doe tn changes in budgetary classification. the data from 1975/76 onwards eam not exactly c-omprable to those for previous y.ers. b/ Exoludios the States' share in Central Taxes. .~I Excluding all dsvslpceata1 end no-develop-nts1 expenditures financed through grants to the State.. So.rce: Ministry of Finance. - 184 - Table 5.3 STATE 00ERNMENT FINBSCES (in Re billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 (Revised (Budget istiates) stimates) Re-*enu Receipts 3.76 5.69 10.41 18.67 28.13 34.22 51.59 74.75 86.52 94.01 108.68 123.89 T.x Reissue 2.69 3.56 6.23 11.37 17.36 23.01 34.81 51.72 57.41 61.84 68.08 86.45 Direct Taxes (1.03) (1.45) (2.03) (2.66) ( 3.42) ( 5.05) ( 7.11) (10.30) ( 9.16) ( 9.60) (10.43) (11.65) Indirect Taxes (1.66) (2.11) (4.20) (8.71) (13.94) (17.96) (27.71) (41.42) (48.24) (52.24) (57.65) (74.80) gsn-Tax Revenue 0.76 1.34 1.88 3.35 4.97 5.35 7.08 9.66 11.82 11.81 13.27 14.42 Greats from Centre 0.27 0.73 2.24 3.84 5.73 5.83 9.70 12.85 15.85 19.08 25.77 21.45 Other 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.07 0.03 - 0.52 1.44 1.28 1.56 1.57 Revenue Exeanditures 3.74 6.14 10.16 19.01 27.93 34.40 52.77 65.22 75.55 83.81 101.00 111.38 Nos-Develo.pental 1.86 2.57 3.81 6.45 9.72 12.68 19.35 20.62 23.49 23.50 28.23 30.76 Developental b/ 1.82 3.29 5.66 10.85 15.42 18.87 29.25 39.19 46.33 52.17 64.44 71.35 Istereet Payments to Cetre - 0.03 0.19 0.58 1.52 2.41 2.59 4.17 4.57 3.90 5.96 5.74 6.53 Other 0.03 0.09 0.11 0.19 0.38 0.26 - 0.84 1.83 2.18 2.59 2.74 Cepital EXDendituree 0.99 2.69 4.52 9.82 8.60 9.06 13.53 20.91 26.96 31.62 39.81 40.50 Uos-Developsest.l 0.10 0.05 0.17 0.06 0.29 - 0.09 0.10 0.14 0.56 0.61 0.16 0.23 Devalopnental 0.68 1.94 3.04 5.49 3.59 5.89 9.93 14.06 16.80 18.94 25.01 26.82 Loans end Advances (net) 0.21 0.70 1.31 4.27 2.72 3.26 3.70 6.71 9.59 12.07 14.64 13.45 Capital Receipts 1.12 3.21 4.03 B.20 7.76 7.90 12.96 11.54 15.96 20.59 35.33 24.81 Market Borrowisgs (not) 0.08 0.49 0.67 1.00 0.76 1.16 1.65 2.76 1.96 2.02 1.93 2.31 Leas. from Centre (net) 0.53 2.36 2.32 5.50 3.36 3.77 6.34 5.52 7.57 11.64 17.91 15.75 Other 0.51 0.19 1.04 1.70 3.64 2.97 4.97 3.26 6.43 6.93 15.49 6.75 Overall Survlus/Daficit 0.15 0.07 - 0.24 - 1.96 - 0.64 - 1.34 - 1.75 0.16 - 0.03 - 0.83 3.20 - 3.18 FL-ani Wayo and Means Advces - 0.04 - 0.03 0.14 - 0.05 0.22 0.31 - 0.32 0.03 0.35 - 0.97 5.5. Changes in Cab Balances - 0.11 - 0.10 - 0.04 0.74 1.06 0.76 1.00 1.17 - 0.04 0.95 2.24 3.18 Changes in Treasury Bill Boldings ..a. 0.03 0.25 1.08 - 0.37 0.36 0.44 - 1.01 0.04 - 0.47 - 4.47 - a/ Due to changes in budgetary classificattion, the data fro- 1975/76 onwards re sot exactly .o.a-rable to those for previous years. b/ As recorded in Central Goverisent accounts. Source: Ministry of Fioaacs. - 1B5 - Table 5.4 TAX REVENUE - CENTRE AND STATES- (is Rs billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976177 1977/79 1978/79 1979/( 0 (Revised (Nadget Estimtes) Estimtes) TAX REVENUE - CEOTRE 1cone Tax 1.34 1.32 1.69 2.72 3.78 4.73 7.41 12.14 11.94 10.02 11.10 12.52 Corporation Tax 0.39 0.37 1.10 3.05 3.00 3.71 5.83 8.62 9.84 12.21 13.65 15.30 Csotoms Dsties 1.58 1.67 1.70 5.39 4.47 5.24 9.96 14.19 15.54 18.24 21.97 23.89 (of ehich: Export Duties) (0.47) (0.38) (0.13) (0.02) (0.98) (0.63) (0.85) (0.83) (1.29) (2.29) (1.34) (0.90) Union R.ciss Duties 0.68 1.45 4.16 8.98 13.21 17.59 26.02 38.45 42.21 44.48 51.94 60.08 Other 0.06 0.04 0.30 0.47 0.64 0.79 1.48 2.69 3.18 3.63 2.99 2.73 A. Sub-total 4.05 4.85 8.95 20.61 25.10 32.06 50.70 76.09 82.71 88.59 101.65 114.52 Less; States' Shore of: Inc.e. Tan 0.48 0.55 0.87 1.23 1.94 3.59 5.28 7.34 6.52 6.75 7.07 8.16 Excise Duties - 0.17 0.75 1.46 2.91 3.90 6.31 8.57 10.28 11.13 12.40 26.04 Other _ 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.08 5.15 0.10 0.11 0.10 B. Tan Revenue Retained by Centre 3.57 4.11 7.30 17.85 20.19 24.51 39.00 60.10 65.81 70.60 82.07 80.22 TAX REVENUE - STATES Sales Ton 0.58 0.81 1.59 3.69 5.75 7.58 11.36 19.05 22.30 23.76 26.60 29.63 State EIcise Duties 0.48 0.45 0.53 0.99 1.64 1.96 3.58 4.42 5.11 5.77 5.73 5.79 Steeps cod Registration 0.26 0.29 0.44 0.80 1.09 1.28 1.73 2.18 2.33 2.88 3.02 3.38 Lend Revense Tax 0.50 0.78 0.97 1.20 1.25 1.21 1.59 2.34 1.87 1.78 1.99 2.07 Motor Vehicles Tax 0.08 0.15 0.34 0.60 0.86 1.10 1.49 2.05 2.40 2.60 3.02 3.58 Other 0.32 0.34 0.68 1.33 1.88 2.33 3.44 5.69 6.60 6.99 7.92 8.78 C. Shb-total 2.22 2.82 4.55 8.61 12.47 15.46 23.19 35.73 40.61 43.78 48.28 53.23 Add: Stotes' Share of: Central Tones 0.47 0.74 1.68 2.76 4.89 7.55 11.62 15.99 16.80 18.06 19.81 33.22 D. Tan Revrsue Retaised by States 2.69 3.56 6.23 11.37 17.36 23.01 34.81 51.72 57.41 61.84 68.09 86.45 TOTAL - CENTRE AND STATES (8 + D) 6.26 7.67 13.53 29.22 37.55 47.52 73.81 111.82 123.22 132.44 150.16 166.67 Adjustenet - + 0.01 + 0.01 - 0.03 - + 0.04 - + 0.08 - + 0.10 - 0.07 - 0.25 + 1.09 CONSOLIDATED TOTAL 6.27 7.68 13.50 29.22 37.59 47.52 73.89 111.82 123.32 132.37 149.91 167.76 */ Dne to chaoges in bhdgetary classification, the data fro 1975/76 sonrds are not exactly comparable to those [or previoss years. b/ Adjootnent to take into -ccount the fsct that in the consolidated statmoent on Centre and State finances, the Stotes' tax revenue includes the States' share in Central tsxes as recorded in the Central aecconts rather then a in their own accounts. Source, Ministry of Finance. - 186 - Table 5.5 CURRgNT EXPENOITURES - CENTRE AND STATES - (in Es billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 (Revised (Budget CENTRAL GOVERNKfENT Estimates) Estimaten) A Nou-Developmental a. Tax Collection 0.10 0.13 0.23 0.30 0.39 0.48 0.65 1.12 1.19 1.19 1.32 1.51 b. Adninistrti-ve Services 0.22 0.35 0.63 1.13 1.59 2.08 2.90 4.50 4.61 4.64 5.08 5.33 c. Defe.ue 1.64 1.72 2.48 7.62 9.29 10.51 14.81 22.51 23.47 23.86 25.90 27.55 d. Interest Payments 0.71 0.96 1.93 3.71 5.28 6.06 8.82 12.28 13.74 15.21 18.57 21.61 e. Other 0.66 0.39 0.45 0.55 1.56 1.71 4.74 5.61 9.35 9.23 10.92 10.21 sob-total 3.33 3.55 5.72 13.31 18.11 20.84 31.92 46.02 52.36 54.13 61.79 66.21 8 D-velop.ental a. Education 0.03 0.14 0.44 0.94 0.77 1.02 1.35 1.91 2.14 2.35 2.75 2.84 b. Public Health 0.02 0.06 0.26 0.44 0.65 0.80 1.04 2.36 2.58 2.29 2.84 3.40 c. Agriculture 0.02 0.07 0.14 0.30 0.28 0.47 0.82 0.82 1.18 1.67 2.66 3.07 d. Indoutey 0.04 0.10 0.28 0.32 0.29 0.35 0.60 2.38 2.42 3.68 3.74 7.28 e. Otbee 0.16 0.30 0.13 0.54 1.46 1.86 2.33 3.24 5.60 7.07 8.09 7.11 sub-total 0.27 0.67 1.25 2.54 3.45 4.50 6.14 10.71 13.92 17.06 19.99 23.70 C Other - 0.13 0.43 0.84 0.05 0.02 0.04 1.09 0.70 0.82 0.22 0.14 D Grants to States 0.25 0.60 2.13 3.50 5.39 6.17 9.86 12.89 16.22 19.61 26.99 21.02 Total (A + 8 + C + D) 3.83 4.95 9.53 20.19 27.00 31.53 47.96 70.71 83.20 91.62 108.99 111.07 STATE GOVENIRfENTS E Non-Develo-pentnl T. Tan Collection 0.23 0.38 0.50 0.69 0.97 1.36 2.17 2.49 2.46 2.41 2.87 3.13 b. Ad=inistrative Services 0.99 1.23 1.67 2.84 3.64 4.35 6.09 8.15 9.17 9.97 11.08 12.13 a. luterest Payments (other than to Centre) 0.06 0.13 0.29 0.56 0.79 1.41 1.23 2.33 3.74 2.20 3.69 3.66 d. Other 0.58 0.83 1.35 2.36 4.32 5.56 9.86 7.65 8.12 8.92 10.59 11.84 sub-total 1.86 2.57 3.81 6.45 9.72 12.68 19.35 20.62 23.49 23.50 28.23 30.76 F Develupneutal a. Ed.caticn 0.58 1.04 1.95 3.83 6.15 7.97 11.76 16.30 17.96 20.48 23.31 25.98 b. Public Health 0.26 0.47 0.81 1.53 2.38 3.02 4.55 6.60 8.22 7.94 10.66 11.72 c. Agricult-ee 0.21 0.27 0.38 1.09 1.42 1.55 2.58 4.13 4.54 5.62 7.04 8.37 d. lnduntry 0.05 0.16 0.21 0.30 0.29 0.33 0.53 0.64 0.87 1.06 1.51 1.73 e. Other 0.72 1.35 2.31 4.10 5.19 6.00 9.83 11.52 14.74 17.07 21.92 23.55 sub-total 1.82 3.29 5.66 10.85 15.42 18.87 29.25 39.19 46.33 52.17 64.44 71.35 O Other 0.03 0.09 0.11 0.19 0.3d 0.26 0.00 0.84 1.83 2.18 2.59 2.74 H Interest Payments to Centre 0.03 0.19 0.58 1.52 2.41 2.59 4.17 4.57 3.9 5.96 5.74 6.53 Tot.l (E + F + C + H) 3.74 6.14 10.16 19.01 27.93 34.40 52.77 65.22 75_55 83.81 101.00 111.38 TOTAL CENTRE AND STATES (net) 7.31 10.30 16.98 34.18 47.13 57.17 86.70 118.47 138.63 149.86 177.26 194.90 (A + B + C + Z + F + G) *7 Due to cabage- On budgetary clansificatin, the data from 1975/76 -narda see not e-actly c-spar.ble tc those for previous yearn. S-urce: Ministry of Finance. - 187 - Table 5.6 TRANSFERS BETWEXN CENTRE AND STATES a (in Rs billion) 1950/51 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 (Revised (Budget Estimates) Estimates) States' Share in Central Taxes 0.48 0.74 1.65 2.76 4.91 7.55 11.70 15.99 16.90 17.98 19.58 34.30 Grants to States 0.25 0.60 2.13 3.50 5.39 6.17 9.86 12.89 16.22 19.61 26.99 21.02 Loans to States (gross) 0.61 2.55 3.39 8.36 9.15 10.28 15.76 12.95 14.81 19.56 28.37 22.59 Loan Repayments by States - 0.08 - 0.24 - 0.95 - 2.76 - 5.85 - 6.58 - 9.69 - 7.46 - 6.56 - 8.81 - 9.62 - 8.63 Interest Repayments by States - 0.03 - 0.19 - 0.58 - 1.52 - 2.41 - 2.59 - 4.17 - 4.57 - 3.90 - 5.96 - 5.74 - 6.53 Net Transfer 1.23 3.46 5.64 10.34 11.19 14.83 23.4 29.80 37.47 42.38 59.58 62.75 a/ All data are taken from Central Government accounts. Due to changes in budgetary classification, the data from 1975/76 onwards are not exactly comparable to those for previous years. Source: Ministry of Finance. - 188 - Table 5.7 ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION OF THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES (in Rs billion) 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 L975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/8I (Re-sed (lodger Eotimates) Estimates) A. REVENbE 9.27 22.16 25.93 31.33 48.28 73.16 80.07 88.93 100.29 101.b5 Tan Receipts 7.29 17.83 20.07 24.34 38.76 59.86 65.56 70.33 60.93 80.19 Income from Property and Enteeprises 1.65 3.74 5.00 5.71 7.45 10.18 12.45 15.38 15.87 17.88 Fees and Misnellaneeus Receipts 0.33 0.60 0.86 1.28 2.07 3.12 2.06 3.23 3.49 3.58 B. CURRENT EYPENDITURES 8.60 18.63 24.34 29.09 43.72 64.67 75.51 83.56 97.92 99.35 Consumption Enpenditore 4.33 11.09 13.86 16.70 23.12 34.49 36.06 35.78 39.36 42.70 Tramnfer Paysents a/ 4.27 7.54 10.48 12.39 20.60 30.18 39.45 46.78 58.56 56.65 C. SAVINGS ON CURRENT ACCOUNT (A - BI 0.67 3.53 1.59 2.24 4.56 8.49 4.56 5.37 2.37 2.30 + Retained Profits and Depreciation Provisions of Railways, Posts etc. 1.00 1.57 1.46 1.79 1.29 1.42 4.28 5.14 4.54 6.96 D. GROSS SAVINGS 1.67 5.10 3.05 4.03 5.85 9.91 8.85 10.51 6.91 9.26 + Capitol Transfers 0.39 0.60 1.02 0.55 16.86 2.97 2.88 3.43 3.59 4.25 + Lean Repayments b/ 1.21 3.73 6.91 8.93 14.64 10.86 7.40 14.41 15.52 13.68 E. TOTAL RECEIPTS 3.27 9.63 10.98 13.51 37.35 23.74 19.13 28.35 26.02 27.19 F. CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 10.73 23.85 25.15 31.51 62.95 61.19 62.48 71.84 91.46 85.65 Dirert Inveostent 3.07 5.20 2.76 5.19 7.82 12.04 11.12 11.07 13.09 17.47 Gronn Fixed Capital Formation 3.02 5.49 4.49 4.85 7.11 9.49 10.90 11.18 13.27 17.08 Increase in Inventories 0.05 - 0.29 - 1.73 f/ 0.34 0.71 2.55 0.72 - 0.11 0.62 0.39 Indirect Investment -/ 6.39 16.10 18.17 21.49 29.77 43.66 44.88 55.23 70.93 61.75 Capital Transfers 0.69 1.32 1.26 1.93 3.56 5.36 5.02 7.55 10.94 11.16 Investment in Shares 0.77 1.40 2.00 3.05 3.00 8.52 8.89 10.47 10.28 15.03 Loans for Capital Formation 4.26 10.32 10.74 8.82 12.83 21.38 25.54 28.53 38.04 32.55 Other Loans 0.61 2.28 3.99 6.10 10.21 6.11 4.82 8.59 9.73 7.38 Other 0.06 0.79 0.16 1.59 0.17 2.29 0.61 0.09 1.94 0.13 Debt Repeyme-t 1.27 2.54 4.22 4.83 25.36 5.49 6.48 5.54 6.64 6.93 Amortization of Foreign Debt 0.18 0.81 1.76 1.99 19.82 3.44 3.70 4.29 4.84 3.95 Long-Tern Dopes Debt 1.09 1.74 2.46 2.84 5.54 2.05 2.78 1.25 1.80 2.98 G. OVERALL DEFICIT (F - E) 7.46 14.22 14.17 18.00 25.60 37.45 43.35 43.49 65.44 58.46 Financed by: Market Borrowings 1.97 2.84 3.21 4.28 10.25 6.61 11.23 13.10 18.34 21.48 Forelgn Debt: FL 480 2.90 2.13 1.73 1.06 1.18 0.36 0.40 - 0.38 - 0.20 - 0.51 Other 1.84 4.82 4.10 4.32 6.82 17.81 14.52 8.46 9.52 11.20 Small Savingn 1.08 1.51 1.14 1.84 4.75 3.93 4.13 5.45 6.00 6.50 Other Unfanded Debt 0.43 0.91 0.46 1.56 d/ 1.01 2.34 1.96 - 22.24 2.52 2.52 Other Debt 0.41 0.28 0.91 2.09 - 1.75 0.47 9.25 5.57 11.22 3.71 N. BUDNETARY DEFICIT (MiMns = Surplus) -1.17 1.73 2.62 2.85 3.34 5.93 1.86 33.53 18504 13.56 Treanory Bils e/ -1.41 2.18 3.10 3.59 4.46 10.73 - 2.86 33.53 - 9.22 13.56 Change in Cash Balanees (Mionu = Increase) 0.24 - 0.45 - 0.48 0 0.74 - 1.12 - 4.80 4.72 - 27.26 - a/ Mainly subsidies, interest payments and grants to States. bI Mainly from State Governments. c/ Mainly grants or loans for cmpital formation by State Gover-ments and Governent enterprises. d/ Inludes -op-n i bds valnd at Rn. 796 million in renpe-t of natico liied bodke e Encoden sals of Tre ry BElls to holde other than the .BI. f/ Mainly redaction of stocks of foodgrai-s and fertilizers. Source: Ministry of Fina.ne, Economic Classification of the Central Budget. Table 5.8 PbOJCD MD A!TULd Pr1 OtrTLAYB BY 8S06R (Pln total- at ba-e-year prices for p-oJeotiona and current prices for actu-1 - in Rs billion) First Pln eoond Pln Third Plan .l Pln Fourth Plan Fifthbpi Ael nW. Pln (1951/52 1955/56) (1956/97 - 1960/61) (1961/62 - 1965/66) (1966/67-1968/69) (1969/70 - 1973/74) T1974/75-1o 8/2 9) 51 92L572197 ) 1978/7 (9978/79 _ 1982/83) Projection Actu-1e PreJeotioea1 ta. otals Projeotinte Aitoals Projeotio Actacle 1/ etia_tee Draft Pln Devi-sd Pla Projection Projection I Arialta nd Allied Progr 2.85 2.35 506 AS4S 9.64 P.5 6.79 19.51 16.83 44.24 34.1 15.18 86.OG 91.29 General / 2.85 2.35 5.06 4.55 9.64 8.55 6.66 18.04 31.09 27.11 58.00 66.65 ipoial Pogre for Rural Delpment - - - - - 1.75 16.83 8 7 15.50) C nd dean Delp-.eat - - -ut 0 13 0 38 865 7.02 4.50 ) 9500 8411 and Tribal Area Develpaant - - - - - -- - 4.50) 8.66 9.60 II Irrigition and flood ORntrol 3±18 3.78 548 S .24 8.87 5,54 7.85 16.03 18.67 42.26 Se.70 14.39 96.50 90.19 Minor Irrigation 0.77 0.55 0.66 0.94 1.77 2.69 5.14 5.16 5.13 7.92 6.54 2.42 17.25 14.15 NaJor .ad Media. Irrigation ) 3.01 S/ 3.09 4/ 3.87 3.81 5.99 5.79 4.27 9.54 11.02 30.89) 72.50 67.02 flod Contrel ) 0.14 0.95 0.49 0.61 o.86 0.44 1.33 1.72 3.65) 27.16 11.57 6.75 9.02 I II nasterF and lliparals 1.68 0.97 8.90 11.29 21.4S 19.67 16.96 36.31 91.07 102.01 72.69 24.78 146.90 194.02 Village and 8n11 Soalo 0.27 0.42 2.00 1.87 2.64 2.41 1.26 2.95 2.45 5.10 3.75 2.36 13.50 A/ 14.10 Large an-d Mdia. 1.41 0.55 6.90 9.38 18.82 17.26 15.10 53.58 28.64 56.91 68.88 22.41 133.40 139.92 of mhio6: Petrolaum (n.e.) (0.26) (2.25) S30) (16.51) (25.50) (26.00) Coal (0.02) (0.92) (1.87) (1.15) (11.48) (18.50) (19.66) IV Poer 2.60 si/ 2.60 1/ 4. 31 4 i2 10.20 12.92 12.13 24.48 29.32 70.16 53278 21.19 157.50 191.12 V TraPaort ad Oonaioatione 4.98 S.18 13-86 12.61 16.99 21.12 12.22 92.18 5oedO 68.89 50.60 17.34 109.78 911.90 Railna 2.50 2.17 9.00 7.253 9.40 15.23 5.09 10.50 9.34 22.02 35.50 34.00 Roa-d 1.09) 1.47 2.46 2.24 3.24 4.40 53.9 8.71 8.62 13.54 21.83 25.99 Road Trport 0.09) 0.17 0.18 0.26 0.27 0.55 0.93 1.28 4.61 7.40 7.51 Porte 4/ 0.33 0.28 0.52 0.54 1.45 1.00 0.61 2.14 2.62 6.17 5.21 4.96 Shippirg 0.18 0.19 0.48 i.53 0.58 0.40 0.32 1.41 1.55 4.50 6.37 6.60 0Ciil Aviation 0.23 0.23 0.43 0.52 0.55 0.51 0.66 1.88 .77 2.97 7.00 7.15 Metacrolugy ~~~~~ ~~~0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.95 0.10 0.40 1.07 1.07 Oaaaunioatioas 0.51 0.44 0.66 0.54 0.85 1.17 1.24 5.20 4.60 12.67 20.95 20.96 BRrondcati.g 0.04 0.02 0.09 0.05 0.11 0.08 0.11 0.40 0.27 0.89 1.57 1.36 urie . n.e. 0.03 0 09 0.08 0.05 o.o6 0.56 0.40 0.74 1.09 1.48 Faralk. flarge -Idl Ulallo..ated - 0.37 - 0.96 - .. 0.47 0.70 0.25 0.38 - 0.22 VI Socia1 Sarciae. 4.26 4.12 95S8 7.58 12.97 12.96 5.S5 29.05 24.37 52.24 1.81 16.91 89.75 99±4 CEdoatict 1.56 1.49 3.07 2.73 5.60 5.89 5.07 8.23 7.74 12.85 9.03 4.24 19.55 19.86 Realt 0.76) 1.78 2.10 2.26 1.40 4.34 3.56 6.82 5.25 2.46 13.50 12.63 Faily Wolar 0.01) 0.98 0.05 2.28 0.27 0.25 0.70 5.15 2.78 4.97 5.84 1.08 7.65 7.65 Watar Sop'ly 0.23) 0.91 )1.05 1.0o6 1.03 4.07 4.598 9.71 7.55 5.65 75.66 27.911 Hcnaiog and Urban Deorlopasot 0.49 0.33 1.34 0.60 1.42 1.28 0.73 2.37 2.70 11.07 h/ 8.06 3445 22.90 80 6600 SNtritio / _ _ _ - _ _ _ - - 1.16 0.64 0.34 1.75 1.76 Social WIelfr - - 0.29 0.20 0.28 0.19 0.11 0.41 0.64 o.86 0.59 0.31 1.31 2.01 Baoekard Cl-.a. and hDrijan Welfare 0.29 0.32 0.90 0.79 1.14 0.99 0.74 1.42 1.65 3.27 2.34 0.95 5.45 6.27 Labor Welf and Orftan Trainieg 0.07 0.04 0.34 0.15 0.71 o.56 0.35 0.40 0.51 0.50 0.50 0.17 0.80 0.80 Rebabilitation 0.85 0.96 0.90 0.65 0.40 0.48 0.40 0.66 o.60 1.03 0.73 0.30 1.25 1.25 VII Other O S6 0.60 0.81 0-97 1.80 1.61 9ji S.20 6.T51 1.342 .40 1.5 11.37 A- 12 Agriiulturol Bff-er Stooke - - - - - - 1.40 2.55 1.24 - - - 80icnca and Cachnology 0.03) - - .p70 0.72 0.47 1.40) 1.31 4.38 2.85 1.01 6.50 6.54 CafuenuMtion and Plan Poblicity - ) 0.60 0.13) 0.12 ) ) 0.1) 0.28 ) 0.09 0.47 0.48 Drlloonted 051) 0,68) 0.97 0.98) 0.89 ) 0.50 1.12) 4.18 .A/ 8.76 '/) 0.55 0.60 4.40 5.76 k/ VIII TOTAL 20.69 19.60 48.00 46.72 e0.99 85 77 66.29 19902 157,79 39.2 286.55 111.49 693.66 710.00 N.t.c The iovsatooaet conponent of plan catlaye is c-apated on a .rt bsin for the Fint through Forth PIn, an on a grOa bis abeseqetly. .&/ Relates ta the ocat of plan pr-gra. Voicig late nonot reouc -tsipaite, the prjacted plan ntIeys in ths Third Plan Ottaln Re. 75 billion. 5/ Coloden Minor Irrigation and griulitur1 Bff-r Stocke for ill plan bt in.lodoa Ldtah W-riJ , fRal Ne ad Pblic Coopertio fo tho Firt th- Aa PI- fin. .2/ Otls on Ml.tiparpose Pr-Joots hare teen nllacoted bat.eea Kajar nd Xedian Irrigation and Poser. -/ 1RoladeeG Crftsmen Trining. ft Nooludon Infortion -nd Plan Publicity. 4/ Coven MaJor and Minor Porte, Lightbrss d anl ndIa Wat-r Troport. / Coveragse of Ros-iag nad Urban Devolop=ent beading ha- ried fran plap to plan. g/ Trolodos Nonke. j/ Prior to ths Fifth Plan, outluyp on Nutrition Were included order the hoedinge of Agriclture, Edocution nd Scial Welfare. / Inolodee be.. 1.78 bill2on for Sp-oial Wlelfs nd Bnplu.uit ShbDe. T/ The coverage of thib esid-al catngo-y i- cot the ers in thb Fifth nd Sisth Pla. I/ Fee o of the individ4al sob-seoto-o, tho cop-nditure in 1977/78 are estimte- 8P^ 1. Psnnlsg Cos2iesien. 2. Widsiaty of tinanoe. 3. mOrd Rlak astitesi. Table 5.9 PtOJrran AND AQJAL PLAN OUTLATI BY SECTOR (A-nnol a-eragna at -onotaat 1970/71 prices - in Re billion) First Plan S-oond Plan Third Plea Annunl Plaen Foarib Plan _ FIfth Plan Ann-al Nes Plan .1495.1/52 - 19/5/6) (1956/S7 - 1960/61) (1961/62 - 1965/66) (1966/67-1968/69) (19269/70_ 1973 '7 '9787 zs1 i97 h5-1 7 1o97/19 (1978/79 _ 1982/85) ProJnotions antOala Projections Antuals ProJ-otione Annuals Antuals ProJD-nnnna nota ls Pojenoti ns. Annoola Ocoimatoc OrOn Plan PreiJed Pilna P-ojeonion Projention I ArioLtur ad Allid 1-33 1.02 i 1 37 1.7 0 5.26 2.57 2.63 4.42 3_ol 5al7 4.1-i 7.71 9 .26 9t3 lencral 1.33 1.02 2.17 1.70 3.26 2.57 2.56 4.07 ) 3.56 3.82 6.25 7.18 SPncial Proaren for lRoca Lcn -looannt - - - - - -. 0.26 ) 3.05 ) ) .67 Coe."d Areael D-lopent - - - - - - 0.05 0.09 ) ) 099 0.99 0.48 ) 1.62 Hill ant Tribal Area Dbeelopeant - - - - - 0.52 ) 0.86 1.03 II Irotlation an_Ponod COnorol 1.78 A:1.65 2.35 7.9 2.80 2.01 305 3.62i 3324 4±03 .75 7.31 10.39 2.71 minor IrriantinO 0.36 0.24 0.28 0.35 0.60 0.81 1.22 1.16 0.93 0.91 0.92 1.23 1.86 1.52 MaJor mad Medioc Irrigctino 1.42 1.35 1.66 1.42 2.02 1.74 1.66 2.15 2.14 3.53 ) ) 7.01 7.22 Flood Control o.o6 7.41 0.18 0.21 0.26 0.17 0.30 0.31 0.39 ) 3.83 ) 6.08 0.73 0.97 III Induntry and Min-rala 0 79 0.42 3.82 420 712-z 5±90 6.35 0.19 5.63 11.60 10.25 12.59 15.82 16.52 Village and Small Sol 0.13 0.18 0.86 0.70 0.09 0.72 0.49 0.66 0.44 0.58 0.53 1.20 1.45 1.52 Lorgn and M4di1w 0.66 0.24 2.96 3.50 6.36 5.18 5.86 7.53 5.19 11.10 9.70 11.38 14.37 15.01 oif eA. Petrolenu (n.P.) (t-l-) (0.76) (0.68) (1.94) (2.75) (2.80) Coal (0.91) (D.39) (0.63) (0.26) (1.31) (1.99) (2.05) IV Po.or 1.22 1±43 H Il5 1.62 3±45 3.76 4.71 5i3 5.32 b.03 7.57 10.73 16.96 16.28 V Troaooe and Con-noiootioa 2.534 2.26 5.95 4.71- 5.59 635 4.74 I.-i 5.58 7±92 7.13 8.8-1 11.40 11,23 Ril-llap 1.10 0.95 3.86 2.70 3.3 3.97 1.98 2.3' 1.69 2.52 3.61 3.66 Roads 0.51 0.64 1.06 0.84 109 1.32 1.20 1.97 1.56 1.55 2.35 2.80 Road Transpprt 0.04 9 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.08 0.21 0.21 0.23 0.53 0.80 0.81 Porte 0.16 0.12 0.22 0.13 0.49 0.30 0.24 0.40 0.48 0.71 0.56 0.53 Shipping 0.08 0.08 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.12 0.12 0,32 0.28 0.52 0.69 0.71 ciril Orinion 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.19 .'15 0,26 0.48 0.32 0-34 3.75 0.77 MeteornoIg n.s. n.e, 0 0.01 o. e. 0,01 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.12 0.12 Conrenboaliont 0.24 0.19 0.28 0.17 0.29 0.35 0.48 1.17 0.83 1.45 2.26 2.26 B-odoating 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.05 0.11 0.13 0.11 T urisr - 0 De. 0.01 pn.. 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.07 0.08 0.12 0.16 Farokka Baragn and UTalloonted - 0.16 - 0.36 - - 0.18 0.16 0.05 0.05 - 0.02 VI Loni.l lerrioee 2.00 1.80 4AI1 2.83 4.38 1532 3.351 5 .653 4,42 5.98 5.40 B .60 9 .6 7 10.70 Ed"eation 0.73 o,65 1.32 1.02 1.89 1.77 1.19 1.86 1.40 1.47 1.27 2.15 2.11 2.14 Health 0.36) 0.76) 0.71 0.68 0.54 0.98 o.61 0.78 0.74 1,25 1.43 1.36 Facily Welfare n.e.) 0.43 0.02) 0.85 0.09 0.08 0.27 0.71 0.50 0.57 0.54 0.55 0.82 0.82 Water Sopply 0.11) 0.39) 0.35 0.32 0.40 0.92 0.83 1.11 1.06 1.84 1.70 2.92 Hoosicg and Vrban Developrent 0.23 0.14 0.58 0.30 0.48 0.38 0. 28 0.53 n.49 1.27 1.13 1.75 2.47 2.15 Nutritlon - - - - - - - - - 0.13 0.09 D.17 0.19 0.19 Sonioo Wrlfeoc - - 0.12 0.07 0.09 o.06 0,04 0.09 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.16 0.14 0.22 Baohekrd Cla c.o and tarijanWalfnrf 0.14 0.14 0.39 0.29 0.39 0.30 0.29 0.32 0.30 0.37 0.33 0.48 0.59 0.61 Labor Welfare and Craftsmen Training 0.03 0.02 0.15 o.26 0.24 0.17 0.14 0.09 o.o6 0.06 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.09 Ricobilttatio- 0.40 0.42 0.39 0.24 0.14 0.14 o,16 0.15 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.15 0.13 0.13 VII Other 0.26 0.26 0.35 0.36 0.61 0.49 2_±94 1.18 1.22 1,53 0.48 0.86 1.22 1.37 Agri.olt-ral bhofer Stoosk - - - - - - 0.54 0.58 0.22 - - - _ Scienos and Teoheology 0.02) - ) - 0.24 0.22 0.18 0.32 0.24 0.50 0.40 0.51 0 70 0.70 Infostion and Pltn Ppblinity - ) 0.26 0.06) 0.04) ) 0.03 ) 0.03) 0.05 0.05 0.05 7nallo2ated 0.24) 0.29) 0.36 0.33) 0.27 ) 0.19 0.25 ) 0.76 1.00) 0.08 0.30 0.47 0.62 VLII aCTAL 9.74 8-54 20.60L 17543 27.36 25.76 25.71 55.90 28.61 45.01 409±36 5.660 74.72 47 Prioe Dflatof/0(1970/71=100) 42.5 45.9 46.6 53.6 59.2 66.6 85.9 88.6 110.3 174.7 177.5 196.9 185.7 105.7 Nnte- S. footnotes to Table 3.8 ./ These prinr deflotorm, derined fro the iaplinit pr,ie deflator fnr gro-s d.o..stin opitai formation in thc National I-onUnto Statietios (see St2ticnial Appendie Tablo 6.12), hace bsen a.ed to -oc-ert the plan ottiay for all aentors to oInne.at 1970/71 prine. Plan projention barn been h onortd from base-pesr pninen; the hor yeas. hbaI besn Oaken to be 1950/51 for the Firet Plan, 1955/56 for the Seo nd Plan, 1960/61 for the Third Plan, 1968/69 fPr the Fourth Plan 1974/75 for 1974/75 outlays nAD 1975/76 for eabneeqnnt ye-r of the Fifth Pla, and 1977/78 for thb Nee Plan. Aotoal -otlayn hLae been -onvcrttd froe norreet pri-ee ociog the .n.sigb eOtd -orago prlln irflotnr for the FPr2t through Third Plane, and the -eighted (by -ooual nutlae) pnioe deflatnr for nob2eqoont plan perinde. 5onrne: Pl-in g Cornionion. - 191 - Table 5.10 ACHIEVEMENT OF PLAN TARGETS (%) First Plan Second Plan Third Plan Fourth Plan Fifth Plan (1951/52- (1956/57- (1961/62- (1969/70 - (1974/75- 1955/56) 1960/61) 1965/66) 1973/74) 1978/79) Plan Outlays (in constant (1970/71 prices) Agriculture & Allied Programs 77 78 79 69 106 Irrigation & Flood Control 93 83 99 94 109 Industry & Minerals 53 110 81 69 92 Power 93 91 109 96 102 Transport & Communications 97 79 113 76 95 Social Services 90 69 89 78 101 Total 88 85 94 80 97 Infrastructure (increase over plan period) Pert. Consumption (per annum) n.a. n.a. 39 28 101 Gross Irrigated Area 30 34 48 89 83 Electricity - Installed Capacity 51 64 65 47 76 d/ - Generation (per annum) n.a. 75 66 n.a. 76 Railway Freight (per annum) n.a. 66 52 -31 96 Annual Production (increase over plan period) Foodgrains 187 b/ 136 b/ -14 b/ 19 b/ 129 Coal and Lignite 119 76 31 27 62 Finished Steel 75 37 46 -6 19 d/ Fertilizers 71 18 19 24 77 Petroleum Products n.a. 400 92 41 65 Cement 95 38 62 43 96 Cotton Cloth 120 32 42 3 39 Domestic Product (annual growth rate over plan period) c/ Agriculture n.a. 82 2 34 93 Mining & Manufacturing n.a. 68 55 56 85 Other Sectors n.a. 119 108 67 108 Total 178 87 56 52 100 a/ Targets and achievements have been compared on an annual average basis. b/ Actual increase in foodgrain production has been calculated as difference between average production in three years centered on last year and production in base year of each plan. c/ For actual domestic product, trend growth rates have been calculated by lease squares estimation. d/ Relates to the period 1974/75-1977/78. Source: Appendix Table 5.9 and World Bank estimates. - 192 - Table 6.1 MONEY SUPPLY AND SOURCES OF CPANGE (Outstanding as on the last Friday of March - in Rs billion) 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 / 1979/80 - MONEY SUPPLY 1. Currency with the Public 43.67 48.00 54.20 63.08 63.48 67.04 78.73 86.31 102.01 111.20 2. Deposit Money 29.54 35.20 42.64 48.64 55.63 64.39 77.36 97.52 116.57 130.10 Total 73.21 83.20 96.84 111.72 119.11 131.43 156.09 183.83 218.58 241.30 SOURCES OF CHANGE 1. Net Bank Credit to Government 52.64 64.44 77.70 87.26 95.33 101.12 110.22 134.70 153.92 183.94 of which: RBI (38.07) (46.89) (54.89) (62.34) (65.70) (66.97) (69.26) (73.87) (85.68) (104.63) Other Banks (14.57) (17.55) (22.81) (24.92) (29.63) (34.15) (40.96) (60.83) (68.24) ( 79.31) 2. Bank Credit to Consercial Sector 64.55 73.68 87.29 107.01 126.47 153.92 185.03 212.22 253.33 294.72 of which: RBI (1.25) ( 2.32) ( 2.65) ( 5.62) ( 6.52) ( 7.21) ( 8.87) ( 9.54) ( 12.48) (15.22) Other Backs (63.30) (71.36) (84.64) (101.39) (119.95) (146.71) (176.16) (202.68) (240.85) (279.50) 3. Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking 5.59 6.19 5.77 6.74 3.92 10.94 24.71 44.62 54.19 55.20 Sector 4. Government's Currency Liabilities to the Fublic 3.84 4.11 4.57 5.02 5.31 5.55 5.68 5.93 5.91 5.68 5. Non-monetary Liabilities of Banking Sector 53.41 65.22 78.49 94.31 111.92 140.09 169.55 213.64 248.77 298.24 of which: Time Deposits with Banks (36.37) (43.70) (53.49) (63.99) (75.51) (91.43) (116.71) (145.22) (180.09) (210.60) Net Non-monetary Liabilities of RBI ( 7.14) (10.91) (12.19) (14.37) (16.70) (25.77) ( 28.33) ( 34.52) ( 33.12) ( 35.68) Other ( 9.90) (10.61) (12.81) (15.95) (19.71) (22.89) ( 24.51) ( 33.90) ( 35.56) ( 51.96) Total M.oney Supply (1+2+3+4-5) 73.21 83.20 96.84 111.72 119.11 131.43 156.09 183.83 218.58 241.30 a/ Provisional. b/ As of January 25, 1980. Source: Reserve Bank of India, various issues of the monthly Bulletin and Weekly Supplement. - 193 - Table 6.2 BASE MONEY AND SOURCES OF CHANGE (Outstanding aS on the last Friday of March - in Rs billion) a/ b/ 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 BASE MONEY 1. Currency with the Public 43.67 48.00 54.20 63.08 63.48 67.04 78.73 86.31 102.01 111.20 2. Other Deposits with REI 0.44 0.79 0.51 0.45 0.78 0.54 1.00 0.70 2.02 3.16 3. Cash with Banks 1.86 2.05 2.47 2.77 3.31 3.43 3.95 5.21 6.14 6.31 4. Bank Deposits with RBI 2.17 2.96 2.97 6.30 6.31 6.31 11.76 17.19 26.86 36.26 Total 48.14 53.80 60.15 72.60 73.88 77.32 95.44 109.41 137.04 156.93 SOURCES OF Cb'ANGE 1. RBI Claims 46.07 54.52 62.14 75.22 81.36 86.76 92.68 92.67 109.19 130.86 of which: on Government (net) (38.07) (48.89) (54.89) (62.34) (65.70) (66.97) (69.26) (73.87) (85.68) (104.63) on Banks (6.75) ( 5.31) (4.60) (7.26) ( 9.14) (12.58) (14.55) ( 9.26) (11.03) ( 11.01) on Comercial Sector (1.25) ( 2.32) (2.65) (5.62) ( 6.52) ( 7.21) ( 8.87) ( 9.54) (12.48) ( 15.22) 2. Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI 5.38 6.08 5.63 6.72 3.90 10.78 25.42 45.32 55.06 56.07 3. Government's Currency Liabilities to 3.84 4.11 4.57 5.02 5.31 5.55 5.68 5.93 5.91 5.68 the Public 4. Net Non-monetary Liabilities of R81 7.14 10.91 12.19 14.37 16.70 25.77 28.33 34.52 33.12 35.68 Total Bass Money (1+2+3-4) 48.14 53.80 60.15 72.60 73.88 77.32 95.44 109.41 137.04 156.93 a/ Provisional. b/ As of January 25, 1980. Source: Reserve Bank of India, various issues of the monthly Bulletin and Weekly Supplement. - 194 - Table 6.3 GVRMNT MARKET BO RRO WING (NET) (in Rs billion) Year Cenitre States Total 1956/57 0.77 0,64 1.41 1960/61 0.83 0.67 1.50 1965/66 1.04 1.07 2.11 19,66167 0.80 0,97 1,77 1967/68 0.94 0.68 1.62 1968/69 0.78 0.70 1.43 1969/70 1.39 0.81 2,20 1,970/71 1.34 1.00 2.34 1971/72 2.95 1.03 3.98 1972/73 4.78 1.33 6.11 1973/74 4.71 1.67 6.38 1974/75 4.94 2,12 7.06 1975/76 4.53 2.74 7.27 1976/77 8.45 1.79 10.23 1977/78 11.91 1.78 13.69 1978/79 16.54 1.85 18.39 1979/80 (budget) 18.50 2.31 20281 Sources: 1. Reserve Bank of India, variotis issues of the Report on Currency and Finance. 2. Ministry of Finance. - 195 - Table 6.4 a/ SELECTED MONETARY POLICY INSTRUMENTS Minimum b/ Statutory c Net d/ Bank Cash Deposit Liquidity Liquidity Year & Month Rate Ratio Ratio Ratio 1965 January 6 3 25 28 1968 March 5 3 25 28 1970 February 5 3 26 31 April 5 3 27 32 August 5 3 28 33 1971 January 5 3 28 34 June 6 3 28 34 1972 August 6 3 29 34 November 6 3 30 36 1973 March 6 3 30 37 May 7 3 30 37 June 7 5 30 39 September 8 7 6 30 40 September 22 7 7 30 40 December 7 7 32 40 1974 April 7 7 32 40 June 29 7 5 33 40 July 23 9 5 33 40 December 14 9 4.5 33 40 December 28 9 4 33 39 1975 November 1 9 4 33 e/ 1976 September 4 9 5 33 November 13 9 6 f/ 33 1978 December 1 9 6 34 &- a/ Dates given are those of the effectiveness of the announced measures. b/ Minimum cash resources to be deposited with the RBI as percentage of aggregate demand and time liabilities. c/ The ratio of liquid assets (exclusive of those under b/) to aggregate demand and time liabilities. d/ Liquid assets as defined under c/ minus borrowing from RBI, SBI and IDBI as percentage of aggregate demand and time liabilities. e/ Starting from November 1, the net liquidity ratio was abolished as a guideline for access to refinance. f/ In addition to the existing liquidity requirements, the commercial banks have to deposit with the RBI 10% of the additional deposits accruing since January 14, 1977. p/ With effect from March 30, 1979 a penalty was imposed for default in maintaining SLR. Source: Reserve Bank of India, Report on Currency and Finance 1977/78, and various issues of the Bulletin. - 196 - T8bl. 6.5 I1TE1ST RATES - ShORT T31ul CLNNRRCIAL BAUING FITES (iP percent) 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1968/69 1970/71 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 I snk Rate 3.5 4.0 6.0 5.0 5.0/6.0 6.0/7.0 7.0/9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 II Trecr, Bill Rate 2.65 3.5 3.0/3.5 3.5/4.0 4.25/4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Ill Call Honev Rate () State Bank of India - Schedoled Banks 3.5 4.0/6.0 7.5/9.0 8.5 8.5/12.0 10.0/10.5 10.5/15.0 15.5 15.5 15.5/15.0 15.0 - Cooperative Banks 3.5 4.0/4.5 6.75/8.0 7.5 7.5/8.5 9.0/9.5 9.5/14.0 14.5 14.5 14.50/13.50 13.5 (b) Other Major Schedoled Co_eroial BlnkS ouby 2.75 4.24 6.26 3.75 6.38 7.83 12.82 10.55 10.84 9.28 7.57 - Calcutta 3.16 4.30 6.81 4.05 6.91 8.84 14.24 11.12 10.71 7.17 7.96 - Madras 2.93 3.74 6.06 4.06 6.45 8.08 14.16 9.73 11.17 9.82 8.00 IV 1anacr Bill Rate - Bomb4Y 10.125 9.0/12.0 12.0/15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0/17.0 17.0/21.0 21.0 n.a. D.&. n.a. Hundi Rate - State lank of India 4.5/5.0 5.25/6.5 9.25/9.75 9.5 9.5 8.0/13.0 9.5/16.3 14.0/16.5 14.0/16.0 n.a. n.e. V Co_mercial Bank Rates (a) Deposit Lates - Ceiling - 1 year 3.75 6.0 6.0 6.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0/6.0 6.0 3 yers 4.00 6.25 6.5 7.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0/7.5 7.5 5 year. 4.50 7.0 7.25 7.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0/9.0 9.0 (b) Key LandinA Rtas CeilinI - General - 10.0 .1 ./ */ 16.5 16.5 16.5/15.0 15.0 - Kports - - - 8.0 9.0/11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5/11.0 11.0 - Food Procur_ not _ _ _ 8.3 9.0/12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0/11.0 11.0 - On deferred pament . - - 6.0 7.0/8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 lHinl Ceneral - 10.0/11.0 11.0/12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 Salective Control - - - 12.0/13.0 14.0/15.0 14.0/15.0 14.0/15.0 14.0/15.0 14.0/15.0 a/ Ceiling a.. lo.ered to 9.5Z in 1968. bot *ithdravn is Janoary 1970. Soorce: Reser"e lnk of India - Rewort on Currency and Finance 1970/71. 1974/75. 1977/78 and 1978/79. - 197 - Table 6.6 INTEREST RATES - LONG TERM RATES (in percent) 1960/61 1965/66 1970/71 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 Ter Leading Institsti.ns Prime Lending Rates ID31 - 8.0 8.5 8.5 9.0 10.25 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 IFCI 7.0 8.5 9.0 9.0 9.5 11.25 12.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 ICICI 6.5 8.0 8.5 8.5 9.0 10.25 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 IRCI - - - - 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 SFC - 8.0/9.0 7.5/10.5 8.5/10.5 9.0/11.0 8.0/13.0 8.0/14.5 8.0/15.5 8.0/15.5 8.0/15.5 (rates charged t sa-ll scale) (7.0/8.5) (7.5/9.75) (7.5/10.5) (8.0/10.5) (8.0/11.0) (8.0/11.0) (8.0/11.0) (8.0/11.0) UTE Dividend Rate - 7.0 8.0 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.75 9.0 9.0 9.0 Carea-ate Bsresiec Rates (a) Preferenc - Ceiling 8.5/9.3 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.8 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 (b) D.bebstnes - Ceiling 7.0/7.5 7.0 8.0 8.0 8.5 10.5 a/ 10.5 a/ 10.5 */ 10.5 a/ 10.5 b/ (c) I year - - 7.5/15.0 8.0/12.0 9.0/14.0 9.0/13.5 9.0/15.0 9.0/15.0 9.0/13.5 (d) 2 years _ _ _ 8.0/15.0 8.0/13.0 9.0/15.0 10.0/14.5 10.0/16.0 10.0/15.5 9.5/14.0 (a) 3 years - - - 8.0/15.0 8.5/13.0 9.5/16.0 9.5/16.5 11.0/16.0 11.0/16.5 10.5/15.0 (f) 5 years - - - 8.0/15.0 9.0/12.5 10.0/16.0 9.0/16.0 12.0/16.0 11.5/16.0 12.0/16.0 Induntrial Seusrities Ordinary Shares 4.88 8.11 5.53 6.86 5.59 3.83 5.43 6.14 6.47 5.66 Dbhenutres - Rusning Yield - 6.68 7.31 7.46 7.98 8.07 8.39 8.55 8.89 n.a. G-verment S curities Sh-et-tem (1 - 5 years) 3.44/3.85 4.10/6.11 3.85/4.28 4.46/4.98 4.47/5.05 5.00/5.65 5.20/6.04 5.18/5.59 5.06/5.59 5.12/5.48 Medium-tarm(5 -15 years) 3.60/4.17 4.60/5.92 4.32/4.84 4.08/5.28 4.74/5.34 5.18/5.99 5.47/6.02 5.43/5.97 5.42/5.98 5.47/6.25 Lang-tern (15 years and ever) 3.99/4.18 4.61/5.53 4.77/15.53 5.00/5.74 5.00/5.74 5.00/6.39 5.00/6.48 5.00/6.47 5.00/6.46 5.00/6.73 a/ Efftetiv September 12, 1974 and for a teem er ding 7 year-. 10 pyrcent f-r a ter less than 7 yeses. b/ Intrest on 'Righs' debentures insued by public limited -arpanies to augment their long-ter working capital requirements ha. been fixsd at th rate f 10.53 up ta 7 years maturity and 11. an the mtwurity periud frtm 8 tn 12 years as per guidelines issued by the gover-neet is September 1978. Source: Reserve bauk of India - Report em Currencv and Finance 1970/71. 1974/75, 1977/78 and 1978/79. - 198 - Table 6.7 PUBLIC SECTRBNS-AVOE OPIRT ETR (in Es million) Jane 1969 June 1970 June 1975 June 1976 June 1977 June 1978 June 1979- Amount Percent Amount Percent Amount Percent Amnunt Percent Amonut Percent Amount Percent Amount Percent Adanoes - Prit S I Agriculture 1,623 5.4 3,016 8.2 7,680 jp,9 10.039 10.1 1 1 O 1, 12.4 20,095 13.3 of which: Direct Finance to Farers (402) (1.3) (1,604) (4.3) (5,115) (6.7) (7,263) (7.3) (9,507) (8.2) (12,346) (9.2) (15,254) (10.1) II Email Scale Sector 2,760 9.1 4,584 12.8 l,903 15.5 14,66l 14.8 17,940 I.4 22,483 16.3 26,36 17.5 Small Sole Indsntrie8 2,511 8.3 3,695 10.3 9,427 12.3 10,992 11.1 13,153 11.3 16,437 12.3 19,078 12.7 Road Transport Operators 55 0.2 244 0.7 1,134 1.5 1,934 1.9 2,528 2.2 3,066 2.3 3,536 2.3 Retail Trade and Small Businen- 194 0.6 645 1.8 1,342 1.7 1,742 1.8 2,259 1.9 2,980 2.2 3,753 2.5 III Other Prio-ity Sectors 27 0.1 87 0.3 406 0.5 578 0.6 774 0.7 937 0.7 1,131 0.8 Professionals and Self 19 0.1 66 0.2 367 0.5 531 0.5 716 0.6 872 0.7 1,056 0.7 Employed Persons Education 8 n.s. 21 0.1 39 n.s. 47 0.1 58 0.1 65 n. 75 0.1 IV Sub-total ubove 4,410 14.6 7,687 21.3 J9_989 26.1 25.285 25.5 31,465 217.0 40,011 29.9 47,593 31.6 V Total Bank Advancen 30,168 100.0 3577 100.0 163540 100.0 99,280 100.0 116.430 100.0 133,640 100.0 150,750 100.0 */ Prooisional. b/ E-e1lud-s ud-nces to pl-ntations, oth than develop-entl finance. Bounce: Govenmesnt f India, Economic Bure 1979/80. Table 6.8 ASSISTANCE BY TERM-LENDING INSTITITIONS TO THE TND1TSTRIAL SECTOR rin Rn million) ___.._ Assistance_Sanctioned Assistance Disburned An-l Average --Annual Average Annual Average / Annual Average 1956/S7-1960/61 1960/61 1961/62-1265/66 1965/66 96/6 197 3/7 6/77 j 19/ " 6/ 96o/618 1960/61 19/ 5/74 1976/77 197 8/7 98/ I,oans IDBI g 221 543 461 705 1,634 4,669 6,022 6,203 153 125 274 511 1,194 2,726 5,746 4,792 IFCI d/ 275 262 401 196 285 586 704 1,062 1,526 74 156 290 177 165 303 529 539 690 ICICI 117 166 239 295 384 545 e56 1,002 1,718 31 108 223 114 258 401 606 852 1,092 IRCI 72 100 109 102 52 108 91 122 SFCe 92 181 234 193 490 1,021 1,630 1,657 1,952 48 120 161 179 331 541 1,049 1,071 1,348 SIDCs 3 3 19 171 230 422 566 700 1 3 20 95 161 246 297 439 lab-Total 484 835 1_420 1.164 2,095 3,894 8,580 10.617 12,001 15i 558 942 764 1,60 2592 9,264 6,096 8.422 LIC 8/ 33 154 33 20 171 499 414 524 e/ 4 18 39 27 106 274 927 231 Total 21O 484 868 1,574 1.197 2.055 4,065 8,879 10,831 12.92S 140 155 542 460 809 1,387 2,698 5,538 6,423 8,695 Sedererittog and Direct Sabecristio to Sharen med Debentures IDBI 27 87 26 28 82 235 339 141 6 28 9 47 48 68 103 103 IFCI 19 40 58 31 38 31 62 72 92 11 25 41 17 9 15 20 37 45 ICICI 17 46 57 75 54 67 88 81 136 16 23 30 49 31 34 64 64 75 SFCs 17 19 3 6 9 4 5 1 13 19 5 4 5 5 3 4 SILOs 22 14 25 22 48 119 170 180 10 11 15 16 45 109 140 142 Sub-Total 76 152 25 160 148 257 527 665 549 27 7 129 95 107 144 258 546 568 '0 UTI 22 22 103 108 77 90 265 489 19 18 103 51 77 60 69 202 LIC e/ 104 96 144 158 89 69 113 132 6/ 89 79 i16 54 93 115 101 86 Total 53 56 278 155 47 414 40 666 1,043 1,170 15 2 185 226 544 2t2 151 453 StS 6S6 Total As sis tance IDBI 250 630 486 733 1,720 4,902 6,360 6,344 159 953 282 558 1,182 2,794 3,349 4,894 IFCI 294 302 459 227 323 419 766 1,134 1,418 85 181 271 195 174 319 549 575 735 ICICI 134 212 296 370 439 611 944 1,083 1,855 47 131 253 162 289 435 670 916 1,107 IRCI 72 100 1O9 102 52 108 91 122 SFCo 92 198 253 196 496 1,031 1,633 1,661 1,953 48 134 180 184 335 546 1,052 1,074 1,352 SIDCs 24 17 44 193 279 541 735 880 11 14 35 111 206 349 437 581 Sub-Total 986 1,655 1.21 2.184 4,131 8.887 11,082 12.551 180 616 1.071 858 1,467 2,7359 2 42 8,791 1TI 22 22 103 107 77 90 265 488 19 18 103 51 77 60 69 202 LITC / 138 250 177 178 259 568 527 655 4/ 93 97 155 81 200 389 428 917 GRAND T1TAL 242 20 1,146 1,927 1,603 2,469 4,44 9.545 11,874 13,694 151 180 728 S j,6 1,116 1,599 3,016 5,971 ,83 95309 5/ Data for the period 1956/57-1960/61 relate to the operati.n. of the fionail itstitutio-6 then in sexotence candy, ISFI, ICIC and the SFCs. 3/ Provaisinal. S/ Inoludes direct loans, refinance to bankge md rodimnomets; eclusive of refisance to SFCe to avoid doable mounting. d/ Including disbursements on account of guarantees. / Data not compiled for 1960/61. The total amodet-nee figures for the year 1960/61 inclulde -Sen med uMdecoriting by the ITC. Source: Reserve Bank of India, Report of Currency & Finance, 1978/79 and previous issues. PabLo- 6.9 110EX NUtTrLgRS OF WROLESALA PRICES - BY YEARS (Bas 1970/71=100) Food Artioles Industrial RAW Materials Poet, -ower, BeverageFs t orical & Basic Metals, MLachine y & Ycar Non-Food Light & Food iChemoal Alloys & Tra-.port All (April - March) Total Fooedrains Other Food Total Articles Minoralo Lubricants Total Froouots Tobacco Toxtiles Preoeta Metal Prodects Eiiment Cocceoditias Weights (297-99) (129.22) (168.77) (1t8.68) (106.21) (12.47) (84.59) (498-74) (133.22) (27.08) (110.26) (55.48) (59-74) (67.18) (1000.02) Averageg of Months 1950/51 47S 51.4 44.5 42.6 45.6 47.3 46.9 47.4 49-5 7.1 51.0 51.8 30.8 46.1 47,; 1955/56 56.1 35.3 36.7 355. 35.9 67.3 49.3 0.4 31.7 58.7 52.5 49.7 42.6 57.4 40.8 1960i61 48.1 49.3 47.2 11.8 52.7 74.8 61.0 60.1 51.4 43.1 65.7 59.7 54.3 65.5 5S.1 1965/66 71.3 74.4 68.9 67,5 6s.6 78.8 76-y 74.5 71.1 61.6 75.7 79.8 72.5 79.7 72.7 1968/69 92.5 97.1 89.0 79.7 83.0 98.5 47 9, 105.6 87.1 85.3 87.9 85.2 89.9 91.5 1970/71 100.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10 .l 10)().,0 150.0 100.0 100.0 1'73/74 i16.6 141.9 132.5 754±9 146.6 225.4 130.6 11.59 171.1 122.0 134.8 116.4 139.0 122.7 139.7 1974/75 12.17 195.8 154.0 191.0 163.7 423.5 198.3 168.8 146.9 148.2 159.8 168.8 172.6 156.4 174.9 1975/76 160.6 174.1 155.6 171 139.8 440.4 219.2 171.2 181.4 164.7 147.9 175.6 184.8 172.6 175.0 1976/77 1 5.e 152.7 157.3 127.0 167.4 449.4 230.8 175.2 189.1 168.2 155.3 171.4 190.1 170.1 176.6 1977/78 173.6 170.4 176.1 7M9. 178.0 477.0 234.2 179.2 184.3 171.2 172.8 172.8 193.8 172.6 185.8 1978/79 172.5 172.7 172.3 204.0 170.4 409.6 244.7 179.4 157.0 178.2 178.9 177.2 211.1 183.6 189.8 o 1979/GO4/ 185.7 1826 188.1 241.4 191.0 670.9 275.9 210.0 205.6 184.8 199.8 192.2 247.9 210.6 212.2 Avrg morsounsd Growth Rate (16 ser arnei) 1950/51- 1975/76 5,1 5.0 5.1 5.7 4.6 9.3 6.4 5.3 5.4 6.1 4.3 6.6 7.7 5.4 5.3 1970/7 1- 1978/79 7.1 7.1 7.0 9.3 6.9 22.0 11.8 7.6 5.8 7.5 7.5 7.4 9.8 7.9 8.1 1977/78 11.8 11.6 11.9 6.3 6.3 6.1 1.5 2.3 -2.5 1.7 11.3 0.8 2.0 1.5 5.2 1978/79 -0.6 1.3 - 2.2 - 2.6 - 4.3 2.9 4.5 0.1 -14.8 41 3.5 2.5 8.9 6.4 1979/6Y0)/ 6.8 5.6 8.1 20.1 13.1 58.7 12.9 17.7 29.1 4.0 13.1 9.0 18.6 16.2 14.6 a/ The indices prior tA 1970/71, a-albl- on different base periods have been converted to base 1970/71. b/ Based on retarns for the first 9 -onths of the year. ./ Percentage inorease April-Dreonber 1979 over April-De-ember 1978. Sources: 1. Ministry of Industry, Office of the Esconoic Adviser. 2. H.L. Chrmdok, WholesEle Price Statistic_ 1947-1978, pIbliehed by the Ec-nowic and Sced-tifie Reseue-h FoandaLicm 1979. Table 6.1o IN1EI NUMERS OF WHOLESALE PRICE8 - BY QUARTERS (Base 1970/71=100) Manufactured PrLodcts Industria1 Raw Materials Fuel, Power, Chemical & Basic Metals, Machinery & Food Articles Non-Food Light & Food Beverages & Chemical Alloys & Metals Transport All Total Foodgrains Other Food Total Articles Minerals Lubricants Total Products Tobacco Textiles Products Products NAuiPnent Coodities Weights a (297.99) (129.22) (168.77) (118.68) (106.21) (12.47) (84.59) (498.74) (199.22) (27.08) (110.26) (55.48) (59.74) (67.18) (1000.0) AveraMe of Months 1976 Ist Quarter 148.2 151.6 145.6 167.6 194.5 449.9 228.9 162.9 151.5 168.0 145.0 172.6 187.4 172.1 164.6 2nd Quarter 149.9 145.0 159.7 176.0 144.7 442.9 229.5 168.5 172.0 170.0 146.5 170.0, 188.7 170.8 169.0 3rd Quarter 156.8 152.9 160.2 94k6 165.4 442.9 230, 178.9 204.2 170.0 152.8 171.4 190.6 170.7 178.5 4th Quarter 151.8 152.6 154.7 200.8 172.4 443.0 231.0 176.6 192.4 i66.5 158.1 171.6 190.5 169.5 177.3 1977 let quarter 160.9 161.1 160.7 216.8 187.2 468.9 232.1 176.8 180.3 166.4 173.2 175.1 199.4 169.9 181.5 2nd Quarter 172.8 162.8 180.5 216.6 186.8 470.9 232.6 182.0 193.1 167.8 169.9 172.2 192.5 170.4 186.6 3rd Quarter 176.1 171.2 180.2 213.7 184.2 475.6 233.5 181.8 196.1 170.7 171.6 172.9 193.3 171.2 188. 4th 4uarter 173.2 173.8 172.7 204.5 172.1 480.6 234.1 179.2 189.3 170.9 173.7 172.6 199.8 179.6 185.1 1978 Ist Quarter 172.0 173.7 170.7 200.8 169.0 480.8 236.7 175.8 164.5 175.5 176.5 173.9 195.5 175.0 182.944 2nd Quarter 173.0 169.9 175.4 200.1 166.8 489.8 242.4 175.5 157.3 177.4 174.2 175.4 200.5 179.9 183.3 2 3rd Quarter 176.0 173.9 178.6 201.9 168.6 485.6 245.3 179.2 160.8 177.8 176.9 176.1 212.0 181.6 186.7 4th Quarter 172.1 174.7 170.1 203.3 171.0 478.8 24S.4 180.6 159.9 177.8 179.0 177.1 214.7 182.7 186.2 Iot Quarter 167.9 171.1 165.4 209.4 174.6 505.5 243.8 182.1 150.1 179.7 185.0 179.7 217.7 190.4 1 2nd Quarter 176.9 171.5 181.0 219.6 178.9 566.4 252.3 197.0 176.5 182.8 192.5 182.5 249.0 204.1 198.4 3rd Quarter 191.9 184.5 196.5 248.3 194.1 709.5 281.1 219.5 217.0 184.6 201.2 190.7 249.4 211.9 216.8 Percentage Change in Wlholesale Price Index (over corresponding quarter of previous year 1978 Iot quarter 6.9 7.8 6.2 - 6.9 - 9.7 2.5 2.0 - o.6 - 8.8 5.5 1.9 0.1 1.1 3.4 0.8 2nd Quarter 0.1 4.4 - 2.8 - 7.6 -10.7 2.7 4.2 - 2.5 -18.5 5.7 2.9 1.9 4.2 5.2 - 1.8 3rd Quarter - 0.2 1.6 - 0.9 - 5.5 - 8.5 2.1 5.1 - 1.4 -18.0 4.2 2.7 1.9 9.7 6.1 - 1.9 4th Quarter - o.6 0.5 - 1.5 - o.6 - o.6 - 0.4 4.8 0.8 -12.8 4.0 3.1 2.6 10.8 5.2 o.6 1979 Ict Qrter - 2.4 - 1.5 - 3.1 4.3 3.3. 5.1 3.0 3.6 - 8.8 2.4 4.8 3.7 11.4 8.8 1.9 2nd Quarter 2.3 0.9 5.2 9.7 7.3 17.1 4.1 12.9 12.2 3.0 10.5 4.0 21.2 13.8 8.2 3rd Quarter 8.7 6.1 10.0 23.0 15.1 46.1 14.6 19.1 35.0 3.8 14.1 8.3 17.6 ,6.7 i6.1 Source: Ministry of Industry, Office of the Economic Adviser. Table 6.11 PRKICE INDICES OF SET.ECTED AGRICIILTIIRAL COMMODYITIES (ase 1970 t100o Average Compound Growth Rates April-D-e-be- em- annum CormoAd. .Weight 1950/51 1955/56 196/61 1965/66 1968/69 1207971 1973/74 1975/76 1 H6zu 1977/78 1978/7 1979/rn 195051 -197071- (All -ommodities=1000) 1975/76 1978/79 Cereals 107.45 55-5 572 51.2 75.5 °98.3 100.0 154.8 172.6 15741 161.5 157.6 no.1 4.8 .9 of shich: Rice 51.31 48.4 37.0 51.2 67.9 97.6 1011.0 140.2 178.8 156.9 162.0 160.8 190.8 5.4 6.1 Wheat 34.17 53.2 38.1 47.4 71.5 97.9 100.0 108.2 159.6 152.0 156.5 153.9 156.1 4.5 5.5 Jewar 8.39 77.2 31.4 56.9 88.0 97.3 100.0 151.2 175.6 163.6 157.4 154.8 165.9 3.3 5.6 Pulses 21.79 42.1 28.2 42.1 yo.6 92.8 100.0 176.9 181.6 145.8 215.2 247.1 244.1 6.o 12.0 of which: Gr 10.39 50.5 75.8 45.8 86.4 91.7 100.0 201.3 204.8 134.5 198.6 228.8 ??7.7 5.8 10.9 Vegetables & Fruits 61.52 55.1 36.6 45.1 o.9 953.1 100.0 143.2 138.8 148.0 176.6 161.0 194.8 5.7 6,1 of which: Potatoes 10.12 m.a. 39.0 40.8 64.9 74.2 100.0 107.2 87.1 115.8 146.7 119.6 8.8 3.42] 2.3 Bananas 6.48 n... 35.0 49.0 74.0 102.1 100.0 157.5 167.0 179.9 178.6 180.7 195.6 6.2 s/ 7.7 Oranges 4.30 n.e. 34.2 45.4 77.0 93.4 100.0 120.1 117.8 105.9 156.6 139.4 242.6 6.9 c/ 4.2 .ashew Note 3.10 35.1 50.8 50.1 50.1 88.2 100.0 154.5 158.9 ?00.0 367.2 269.0 706.5 7.1 15.2 Cendisents 8 loices 10.94 55.2 25.5 27.1 40.6 672 100.0 99.5 186.5 155.8 189.4 175.9 144.6 7.1 7.3 of which: Chillies 5.02 42.5 22.1 35.6 45.0 39.6 100.0 86.2 217.5 114.5 128.5 136.1 132.8 6.7 3.9 Fibers 51.775 47.2 42.8 61.4 66.2 85.7 100.0 136.8 159.0 184. 185.2 9 167.94. 6.8 o of which: Raw Cotton 22.46 49.7 42.7 49.2 56.8 73.9 100.0 138.3 136.4 197.5 193.0 168.6 164.6 4.1 6.7 Raw Jute 4.29 44.8 45.3 81.2 90.5 114.5 100.0 98.5 116.8 126.6 148.6 146.6 139.7 3.9 4.9 Oilseeds 42.01 59.2 23.7 41 Al.6 67.1 71.8 100.0 157.6 125.8 150.8 189.5 159.0 181.1 4.8 6.0 of which: Groundnut 18.21 40.2 23.8 40.4 66.0 69.6 100.0 165.7 129.1 142.2 171.8 146.0 101.0 4.8 4.8 Raps & Istard 8.22 49.7 27.4 44.4 74.9 82.1 100.0 162.4 119.9 163.8 228.7 196.2 203.6 3.6 8.8 Other Cuwnodities 45255 68.7 56.8 70 . 1 75.9 99. 8 100.0 _ 19-8 148.1 166.4 15669 101.6 5-1 6.9 of which: Tes 11.49 00.0 75.4 90,9 89.2 90.2 10D.0 110.5 175.0 214.1 292.2 212.5 227.7 3.1 9.9 Coffes 1.61 39.5 43.7 46.6 63.1 81.0 100.0 85.8 117.0 133.1 128.6 121.8 127.3 4.4 2.5 Sugercane 16.42 50.0 52.5 58.6 67.8 100.1 100.0 117.0 124.1 125.8 125.0 136.2 159.4 3.7 3.9 Tobacoo 8.07 72.8 51.8 75.2 87.1 130.0 100.0 140.9 173.7 203.1 145.5 147.1 146.4 3.5 4.9 Rubber 1.28 39.8 65.3 67.7 82.7 94.1 100.0 104.7 153.2 125.2 135.3 199.4 716.5 5.5 9.0 Timber 3.34 48.7 45.4 57.8 65.5 87.2 100.0 140.9 173.7 203.1 145.5 303.7 373.0 5.2 14.9 .TOTAL 520.81 1?/ 48.1 7. 57 0 977 90.98 100.0 139.1 154.4 156.8 1'7.5 168.2 10353 4.8 6.1 ,/ txcludes fisheries, licestoek, and dairy products. g/ Total food articles (297.49) plus mon-food industrial raw -aterials (106.21) Ieee weightage of ilk & dairy products, fisheries and hides & skims (83.39). S/ For thb years 1952/55 - 1975/76. Srurces: 1. Ministry of Industry, Offiee of the .c.no.ic AdRicer. 2. H.L. Chasdhok, Wholesale Pri-e Statistics_1941-1978, published by the Ec--omie -d S4ci-etific Research F-odatio- 1979. - 203 - Table 6.12 INVESTMENT PRICE INDICES (Base 1970/71 = 100) Composite Index from Implicit Price Deflator Year Selected Wholesale a/ of Gross Domestic (April - March) Prices Capital Formation 1950/51 45.5 42.5 1951/52 50.3 45 4 1952/53 48.1 44.8 1953/54 48.4 45.2 1954/55 46.9 47.7 1955/56 47.2 46.6 1956/57 51.1 48.5 1957/58 53.5 48.5 1958/59 54.5 55.6 1959/60 55.8 56.4 1960/61 59.2 59.2 1961/62 60.3 61.4 1962/63 61.6 63.1 1963/64 65.0 66.3 1964/65 69.1 68.9 1965/66 74.6 73.4 1966/67 82.9 82.3 1967/68 85.7 86.7 1968/69 88.1 88.6 1969/70 93.9 93.4 1970/71 100.0 100.0 1971/72 103.4 105.7 1972/73 110.1 114.4 1973/74 134.6 130.8 1974/75 196.2 164.5 1975/76 184.1 176.2 1976/77 189.6 179.3 1977/78 199.2 183.9 1978/79 204.3 196.9 1979/80 236.9 b/ Average Compound Growth Rate (% per annum) 1950/51 - 1975/76 5.8 5.9 1970/71 - 1978/79 9.3 8.8 1975/76 - 1978/79 3.5 3.8 1977/78 5.1 2.6 1978/79 2.6 7.1 1979/80 17.2 c/ a/ Primary non-food articles, minerals, fuel and power group, rubber and rubber products, chemicals and chemical products, non-metallic mineral products, basic metals and metal products, machinery and transport equipment - the combined weight of these items is 41.189 % in the all-commodity wholesale price index. b/ Based on returns for the first nine months of 1979/80. c/ Percentage increase April-December 1979 over April-December 1978. Sources: 1. H.L. Chandok, Wholesale Price Statistics 1947 - 1978, published by the Economic and Scientific Research Foundation, 1979. 2. Ministry of Industry, Office of the Economic Adviser. 3. Appendix Table 2.3. - 204 - Table 6.13 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX NUMBERS FOR INDUSTRIAL WORXERS, URBAN NON-MANUAL EMPLOYEES AND AGRICULTURAL LABORERS Industrial Workers Urban Non-Manual Agricultural Laborers Year Food Index General Index Employees Food Index General Index (April - March) (1960-100) (1960 = 100) (1960 = 100) (1960/61-100) (1960/61 - 100) Average of Months 1950/51 87 84 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1955/56 81 79 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1960/61 108 102 100 b/ 100 100 1965/66 150 139 132 169 158 1968/69 193 a/ 174 a/ 161 201 185 1970/71 201 186 174 206 192 1973/74 279 250 221 313 283 1974/75 358 317 270 413 368 1975/76 342 313 277 345 317 1976/77 317 301 277 324 302 1977/78 346 324 296 349 323 1978/79 347 331 306 340 317 1979/80 362 e/ 350 e/ 326 f/ 374 .4/ 346 g/ Average of Weeks 1978 March 336 321 297 342 318 June 344 327 303 334 312 September 354 336 309 346 321 Decehber 350 335 308 342 318 1979 March 341 332 308 331 310 June 356 345 318 340 318 September 378 363 332 379 350 December n.a. n.a. 341 n.a. n.a. Average Compound Growth Rate (;. per annum) 1950/51 - 1975/76 5.6 5.4 5.2 -/ 6.4 d 5.9 d/ 1970/71 - 1978/79 7.1 7.5 7.3 6.5 6.5 1977/78 9.1 7.6 6.9 7.7 7.0 1978/79 0.3 2.2 3.4 -2.6 -1.9 1979/80 h/ 5.0 6.5 6.5 8.1 7.6 Percentage Change in Index over the corresponding Month of previous Year 1979 March 1.5 3.4 3.7 -3.2 -2.5 June 3.5 5.5 5.0 1.8 1.9 September 6.8 8.0 7.4 9.5 9.0 December n.a. n.a. 10.7 n.a. o.a. a/ Based on four months figures in the interim series (1949-100) and eight months figures as estimated from the new series of index on base 1960-100. b/ Relates to the period January to March 1961. c/ Indices relate to Agricultural Years (July-June). d/ Relates to the period 1955/56 - 1975/76. e/ Based on returns for April-September 1979. U Based on returns for April-December 1979. / Based on returns for July-October 1979. h/ Percentage increase for periods noted in footnotes e to g, over corresponding period of 1978/79. Sources: 1. Reserve Bank of India, various issues of the monthly Bulletin and Report on Currency and Finance 1977/78. 2. Ministry of Labour, Labour Bureau, Simla. 3. Central Statistical Organization. - 205 - Table 7.1 PRODUCTION OF PRINCIPAL CROPS Annual Average 1951/52- 1956/57- 1961/62- 1966/67- 1971/72- Coenodity/Con-odity Group Unit 1955/56 1960/61 1965/66 1970/71 1975/76 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 Foodgrains million tons 63.18 73.99 81.03 94.24 105.54 121.03 111.17 126.41 131.37 (a) Cereals million tons 53.14 62.24 69.89 83.37 94.73 107.99 99.81 114.43 119.20 Ri-e million tons 25.03 30.33 35.15 38.09 42.94 48.74 41.92 52.67 53.83 Wheat million Cons 7.90 9.74 11.07 18.10 25.18 28.85 29.01 31.75 34.98 Jowar million tons 7.49 8.60 8.85 9.38 8.74 9.50 10.52 12.06 11.56 Bajrs million tons 3.41 3.43 3.95 5.36 5.15 5.74 5.85 4.73 5.51 iaise million tons 2.71 3.57 4.59 6.00 6.02 7.26 6.36 5.97 6.22 Others million tons 6.60 6.49 6.28 6.44 6.70 7.91 6.15 7.25 7.10 (b) Pulses million tons 10.04 1,Q75 11.14 10.87 10.81 13.04 11.36 11.97 12.17 of which: Gram million tons 4.69 6.0o 5.13 4.93 4.72 5.88 5.42 5.41 5.83 N-on-oodgrains (a) Oilseeds -/ million tons 5.52 6.71 7.35 7.71 8.58 9.91 7.83 9.01 9.54 of which: Groundnuts million tons 3.53 4.73 5.12 5.20 5.61 6.75 5.26 6.09 6.39 Rapeseed & Muntard million tons 0.91 1.09 1.27 1.54 1.83 1.94 1.55 1.65 1.88 (b) Sugarcane (in termn of gur) nillion tomn 5.54 6-11 11.13 11.78 13.59 14.41 15.85 17.96 16.03 (c) Cotton million bales 3.66 4.54 3.10 5.36 6.42 5.95 5.84 7.24 7.93 (d) i. Jute million bales 3.93 4.44 5.68 5.04 5.16 4.44 5.35 5.36 6.45 ii. Mesta million bales 0.85 1.36 1.68 1.16 1.31 1.47 1.75 1.79 1.84 a/ Five major cilneeds - groudnuts., tape & mustard, linseed, castorseed and sesamun. Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation. T.ab], _L.2 INDFX11 N1MBR8 0F AC.RIl.JI,TIAL P8OIYUCTION ( dace: Trinn mmceiing 196 9//om1roo Avera e Com.ound Growth Rate (tier_snn) 190 51- 1970 717 Crop __ Weight 1 >/Sf 9760/61 i9fS/44 165/69 2790/71 7/7 19/3/74 195/2_ 1t77 96/7 8 1978/7 9 1975/7L-, 1978/'7 1977/78 1 978/7 2 A. Fo_dgr_ian 6,17 57.1 72.6 6.1 758 975.5 112.9 1114 3 127.2? 1,57 453-G 118.8 3.2 2.6 419 5.9 a) Cereals 60.05 35.8 68.5 82.6 74.7 98.2 1 42.1 1p5.2 128.8 117.8 137.3 145.1 6 2.9 16.6 4.2 of which: Rice 35. 933 56.3 7392 88.9 78.1 101.1 107.4 11?.7 124.7 107.2 194.7 157 .7 S.2 9.2 25.7 2.2 Wheat 12.16 57.8 49.2 60.9 57.6 56.5 1t32.1 120.7 159.9 18(.8f 176.0 195.9 5.9 4.9 9.5 10.2 Jc-oc 4.86 69.4 68.3 100.4 76.9 99'.4 82.9 92.2 56.7 06h.6 122.2 117.1 1.7 4.5 14.6 - 0.5 b, Poises 8.r7 81.6 la5.A4 1112, 88.0 0.2 104.4 8.5 115 , 100.1 105.8 107.4 1.4 0.4 5,9 1.5 cf which: Gram 3.SI) 73.3 1703.8 119.9 80.9 79.2 99.7 78.7 112.9 194.2 103.9 112.1 1.7 1.5 - 0.3 7.9 Thr 1 .35 101.5 11'1.? 117.8 97.4 98.6 105.8 79.1 117.9 96.9 108.4 107.5 o.6 0.2 11.9 -0.8 B. _n-Fcdcgrains 31.8 62.0 10.1 88.1 91.5 144 108.7 117.0 121.9 118.2 13.0 716.2 7:7 2 y9 12.5 2,A i\ Oilseeds 10.96 66. 1 :129 55,8 85 96 . 11ii.1 114.5 147 104. 7 124.7 7.6 0.8 12.y 917 cf which: Grcv:ndnuto 4.82 64.3 71.3 91.0 A2.6 89.7 118.4 114.9 179.9 102.0 118.0 123.8 2.9 0.6 15.7 4.9 R,ape-ed & thcta 1.73 51.4 57 .5 0.2 86.9 90.2 172.5 114.2 125.6 103.8 110.4 125.6 3.8 - 0.6 6.4 19.8 (b) Fibres 4.05 57.8 79,S 96.5 88. 5 2.1 89.9 119i, 109.4 106.3 125.2 159.0 2.4 S1. 18.1 11.0 cottcn tiint) 3.91 54.5 75.5 99.2 86.7 97.4 85.1 112.7 106.2 194.2 129.3 141.5 2.7 6.6 24.1 9.4 Jute 0.81 70.4 89.9 85.2 90.1 59.0 99.6 125.4 119.5 107.9 iO8.1 150.1 1.0 3.4 0.2 20.4 0 -enta -.15 59.7 104.4 100.9 118.0 82.1 113.7 132.0 217.0 150.4 154.4 158.5 9.1 4.2 2.7 2.7 (c) Plantoti8n Cr p9 2.28 62.7 68.6 5 9- 91.7 120.8 114.8 1525.8 179.9 1595 572.9 4 11.2 9.2 5. 9 5.9 - 0.7 Tea 1.85 70.1 72.4 81.6 93.1 102.3 106.4 179.9 123.7 1309( 141.9 145.2 2.3 4.0 9.2 2.3 Coffee 0.24 39.2 68.5 86.1 98.5 113.4 170.1 194.4. 129.6 157.8 192.8 169.7 4.9 n.m. 22.2 -12.0 Rubber ;.195 20.6 32.2 36.7 69.7 98.0 117.1 172.7 15O.2 2 6.5 202.9 186.8 9.5 4.9 _ 1.7 - 7.9 14) Condiments and97pioe 2.51 97.9 88.2 95.9! 12,2 94.9 1152 1159.4 121.2 1062,9 12.9< 56.5 1.6 2.0 16.8 9.5 (c) rouite & Vngeta¢biec 't-.97 9711 A!i 67.9 A17 7 104. 9. 117.? 1'95.6 115<7 149.9 5657.9 4.0 ';. 7.1 2147 (f) Xiscell. oanSecus~ 11.49s 60.1 t G4.5 9545 101.6 1174,2 172579 172.4 116.9 43..4 148.1 ." 7.7 -29 29 17,-1 29.6 of which: Sugarccne 7711 58.1 *1 .S "4.1 105.3 115.7 106.4 119.3 111.1 137.9 147.3 131.5 ".9 2.7 13.3 -10.7 Tohbcco 1.14 72.3 95.9 84.5 82.4 11. 191.8 29 .9 `8.4 117.8 138.9i 126.9 1.2 2.0B 17.8 - 8.6 d1.L.ClciCr 10r9.990 90.9 .1 9) R6.7 9n.8 074S 111.95 11?.4 5 316.5 1 t5.4 99911z8 1 l 2.7 14,5 54 Sc-rce.: Minimtry of Agrio-lt-ore and Irrigati-n. - 207 - Table 7. 3 GROWTH RATES IN AREA, PRODUCTION AND YIELD O SELECTED CROPS POO 1949/50 TO 1978/79 - (% per annum) Weight Area Production Yield in the 1949/50 1949/50 1964/65 1949/DO 1949150 1964/65 1949/50 1949/50 1964/65 Production to to te to to to to to to Index 1978/79 1964/65 1978/79 1978/79 1964/65 1978/79 1978/79 1964/65 1978/79 A. Foodgrains 68.12 0.8 1.4 0.6 2.6 3.0 3.4 1.5 2.4 2.3 (a) Cereals 68.05 1.0 1.2 0.7 3.0 3.2 3.7 1.7 2.0 2.5 of which: Rice 33.98 1.0 1.2 0.8 2.6 3.5 3.0 1.5 2.3 2.1 Wheat 12.16 2.8 2.3 4.0 5.9 4.8 8.2 3.0 2.4 4.0 Jowar 4.86 -0.1 1.1 -1.2 1.3 3.2 1.6 1.4 2.1 2.8 (b) Pulses 8.07 0.4 1.3 0.3 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.5 0.7 of 'hieh: Gram 3.58 -0.4 1.7 -0.3 0.4 2.7 1.0 0.4 3.5 1.3 Tur 1.35 0.4 0.8 +n.s. -0.1 -1.3 1.1 0.6 -1.9 1.1 B. Non-Foodgrai-s 31.89 1.4 2.5 0.8 2.7 3.5 2.6 0.9 1.0 1.3 (a) Oilseeds 10.96 1.3 2.7 0.1 2.2 3.2 1.9 0.5 2.3 1.4 of ohieh: Groundnuts 4.82 1.8 4.6 -0.3 2.2 4.2 1.6 0.4 -0.1 1.8 Rapeseed & custard 1.73 1.9 2.9 1.4 2.7 3.5 2.4 1.3 3.1 1.0 (b) Fibres 4.03 0.6 2.6 -0.5 2.3 4.5 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.2 of which: Cottus (lint) 3.01 0.4 2.5 -0.5 2.6 4.6 2.2 2.0 2.8 2.4 Jute 0.81 0.8 3.0 -0.2 1.3 3.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 c) Plantstiun Crops 2.26 2.4 2.4 2.2 3.2 2.6 3.9 1.8 302 2.5 Tea 1.85 0.8 0.5 0.7 2.5 2.0 3.3 1.7 2.2 2.6 Coffee 0.24 2.7 2.5 3.3 5.1 7.0 4.4 2.3 4.4 1.1 Rubber 0.19 7.1 8.9 5.3 9.1 6.7 9.3 129 -2.0 3.8 (d) Co,sdimo.. C _Spi- 2.31 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.2 (e) Fruits aed Vegetables 3.97 3.5 4.1 2.6 4.8 4.5 4.4 1.2 0.4 1.7 (f) Mi-celloneous Cro-s 8.33 2.3 3.0 3.1 3.3 4.3 3.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 of which: Sugor-ace (Gur) 7.01 2.3 4.4 1.8 3.4 5.6 3.0 1.3 1.1 1.8 Tohb-e 1.14 0.9 1.7 0.4 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.3 0.7 1.8 ALL CROPS 100.00 1.0 1.6 0.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 1.3 1.4 1.9 a/ Average ansual compound growth rotes have bhoe estimated by fittiog len-logarithmic least squareu time trends to the relevaet index numbes data. Souroe: Mieistey of Agriculture, Office of the Eeonomie and Statistical Adviser. - 208 - Table 7.4 STTITNSI GROWTU IN PLD1CTIO?I OF SEILCIND aQOPS 1M 1964/65 TO 1978/79 Cerelal Psoies 5 Major Oilse*d Sogarcane (gur) Cotto Average Average Avrage Average Average Coopound Ccouod CCooou iwound Cpound 1964/65 1978/79 Groth gate 1964/65 1978/79 Growth gate 1964/65 1979/79 Growth Rate 1964/65 1978/79 Growth Rate 1964/65 1978/79 growth ate State (dillieo toes) (1 per *sonn) (dilliom toos) (1 per eooo.) (,illion toe) (% per j (illio tos) (pere ) (million bales) (% per noss) A.dhra Predesh 7.36 10.02 2.2 0.34 0.38 0.8 1.02 1.20 1.2 1.22 1.04 - 1.1 0.14 0.35 6.8 Asns. 1.94 2.26 1.1 0.04 0.04 - 0.06 0.09 2.9 0.13 0.16 1.5 0.01 Iihar 6.29 9.35 2.9 1.24 0.69 - 4.1 0.09 0.10 0.8 0.69 0.42 - 3.5 n.s. n Gojer-t 2.69 4.25 3.3 0.19 0.23 1.4 1.70 2.04 1.3 0.24 0.33 2.3 1.55 2.10 2.2 arysa 1.72 5.28 8.3 0.99 1.08 0.6 0.08 0.09 0.8 0.68 0.69 0.1 0.29 0.60 5.3 gichal Pre 0.82 0.99 1.4 0.03 0.04 2.1 0.01 0.0 - .01 0.01 - s.o. o.. J_mi & Kashmir 0.54 1.16 5.6 0.02 0.04 5.1 0.02 0.05 6.8 s s.c. s.c. n.C Karest-ke 4.50 6.98 3.2 0.34 0.58 3.9 0.71 0.86 1.4 0.67 1.18 4.1 0.32 0.02 3.3 Keral 1.14 1.24 0.6 0.02 0.02 - 0.02 0.02 - 0.04 0.04 - 0.01 0.01 - Madhy. rdesh 8.40 9.20 0.7 1.84 2.13 1.1 0.60 0.52 - 1.0 0.18 0.21 1.1 0.49 0.30 -3.4 Mah rahtr. 5.89 8.98 3.1 0."6 1.03 1.3 0.91 0.59 - 3.0 1.21 2.46 5.2 1.25 1.32 0.4 OMss. 4.51 4.96 0.7 0.44 0.78 4.2 0.12 0.39 8.8 0.20 0.28 2.4 s.s. 0.01 P.e.Jb 3.34 11.31 9.1 0.70 0.31 - 5.7 0.22 0.18 1.4 0.44 0.61 2.4 0.81 1.33 3.6 leaethe. 4.17 5.92 2.5 1.14 1.89 3.7 0.25 0.56 5.9 0.06 0.22 9.7 0.18 0.57 8.6 Tmil Nadu 5.58 8.01 2.6 0.11 0.22 5.1 0.95 1.21 1.7 0.88 1.88 5.6 0.36 0.50 2.4 Utter Prrdesh 11.56 20.43 4.2 3.72 2.43 - 3.0 1.74 1.51 - 1.0 5.62 6.26 0.8 0.04 0.02 -4.8 West Bgasgl 5.85 7.39 1.7 0.41 0.26 - 3.2 0.05 0.10 5.1 0.19 0.19 - 5.5. 5.5. ALL-LNDIA 76.94 119.20 3.2 12.42 12.17 0.1 8.56 9.55 0.8 12.49 16.04 1.8 5.68 7.93 2.4 */ Croaudet, repeseed & -stard, linsed, .setorseed nd sesm. Sosrco: Niistry of Agrillter. nsd Irrig&tion. - 209 - Table 7.5 AVAILABILITY OF CEREALS AND PULSES Cereals Pulses Net Availability Per (million tons) (million tons) Person Per Day (in grams) changes Calendar in Net Net Year Production Net Imports Govt. Stocks Availability Availability Cereals Pulses Total 1954 53.55 0.83 (+) 0.20 54.18 9.76 387.7 69.8 457.5 1956 50.44 1.39 (-) 0.60 52.43 10.23 360.6 70.4 430.9 1958 49.46 3.22 (-) 0.27 52.95 8.87 350.2 58.7 408.9 1960 56.89 5.13 (+) 1.40 60.62 10.38 382.8 65.5 448.3 1961 60.77 3.49 (-) 0.17 64.43 11.14 398.7 69.0 468.7 1962 62.27 3.64 (-) 0.36 66.27 10.24 402.0 62.0 461.6 1963 60.18 4.55 (-) 0.02 64.75 10.08 384.4 59.8 443.8 1964 61.76 6.26 (-) 1.24 69.26 8.81 401.0 51.0 452.6 1965 67.31 7.45 (+) 1.06 73.70 10.85 418.6 61.6 430.2 1966 54.60 10.34 (+) 0.14 64.80 8.68 360.0 48.2 408.2 1967 57.65 8.66 (-) 0.26 66.57 7.30 361.7 39.7 401.4 1968 72.58 5.69 (+) 2.04 76.23 10.57 404.1 56.0 460.1 1969 73.14 3.85 (+) 0.46 76.53 9.09 397.9 47.3 445.2 1970 76.83 3.58 (+) 1.11 79.30 10.20 403.2 51.9 455.1 1971 84.53 2.03 (+) 2.57 83.99 10.32 417.7 51.3 469.1 1972 82.31 (-) 0.49 (-) 4.69 86.52 9.70 420.3 47.1 467.3 1973 76.23 3.59 (-) 0.31 80.13 8.67 382.3 41.4 423.7 1974 82.82 4.83 (-) 0.40 88.05 8.75 411.6 40.9 452.8 1975 78.59 7.39 (+) 5.56 80.42 8.76 368.5 40.1 408.6 1976 94.50 6.44 (+)10.27 90.67 11.40 406.6 51.1 457.7 1977 87.33 0.39 (-) 1.25 88.97 9.94 393.1 43.9 437.0 1978 100213 (-) 0.99 (-) 0.14 99.28 10.48 426.1 45.0 471.1 1979 a/ 104.30 (-) 1.06 (+) 0.30 102.94 10.65 433.3 44.8 478.1 Notes: 1. Net production has been taken as 87.5 per cent of the gross production, 12.5 per cent being for feed, seed requirements and wastage. 2. Figures in respect of change in stocks with traders and producers over a year are not known. The estimates of net availability given above should not therefore be taken to be strictly equivalent to consumption. 3. Net Availability = Net Production + Net Imports - Changes in Government Stocks. a/ Provisional. Sources: 1. Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation. 2. World Bank estimates. - 2315~ Table 72. a/ PUBLIC DISTRIB~UTINON F FO0O8GRAIN5 (in thousand tons) 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 197n 1977 1976 bt 1979 b/ Open's.. SnoaS 674 1.927 1,815 1,695 3,893 4.387 5.334 7,979 3 410 2,945 2 539 7.983 18.771 17,274 17.136 361 528 417 665 1,112 1,724 1,834 2,310 1,357 1,409 1,094 2,804 59220 5,615 7,983 'h-ct 306 1,274 1,033 760 2,126 2,329 3,127 5,031 1,900 1,018 1,221 4,769 12:282 11,508 9,039 Procurement 4.031 4.009 _jG2 6.805 6,381 6.714 8.957 7.665 24 6 9,563 1248535 9 9 11,09 13,720 Rine 2,931 3,100 2,783 3,373 3,581 3,043 3,462 2,550 3,462 3,482 5,042 5,999 4,656 5,551 5,611 Wheat 375 219 779 2,373 2,417 3,183 5,088 5,024 4,531 1,885 4,098 6,n18 5 170' 5,470 7,997 Imontr 7. 462 13.358 8.672 5.694 3,872 3,631 2.054 445 3,614 4.874 7.407 6,515 535 102 7 Rica 793 787 453 446 487 206 240 131 - - 130 149 8 7 - Whent 6,593 7,784 6,400 4,766 3,090 3,425 1,914 314 2,414 4,203 7,016 5,832 547 95 - sosue 10,079 14,077 13,166 10,221 9.385 8.841 7.816 11,487 11.414 10.790 11,25 9,174 ALO6 - 11,129 - 12.584 - Hi., 3,536 4,131 3,010 3,287 3,405 3,050 3,230 3,586 3,206 3,753 3 ni 3,643 4,989 3,282 4,364 Leaht 5,939 8,134 7,366 5,755 5,195 5,347 4,455 6,698 7,130 5,669 7,545 5,015 t532 7,748 d,100 tinning Stnak 1La97 1.815 1,695 3.89 4,337 5.334 7.879 410 2945 53 7,983 3 '1 >2,4 17,136 17,439 Rice 528 417 663 1,182 1,724 1,834 2,310 1,357 1,409 1,094 2,804 5 720 SoNi5 7,983 9,062 Ah-ot 1,276 1,033 760 2,126 2,329 3,127 5,031 1,900 1,018 1,221 4,765 72-82 !I i99 9,039 8,262 Bnte: By detinition Opening SCtok + Penna.enn-t i Imports = Issus Closing Stonk. In p-enti-e the right hand side of the equat-in io irvariably snaller than the l8ft. Tsis is doe to n-acks in nansi t and stoak Inoses. a/ Indinidnol pnsition far the tco noin terec-In, rice sor whent ht-aeenshown, ton baLance in totn l fodgecli oning oa-aasaod fnc by othee fnndgr-i-s. b/ frenisio.al. c/ Isnues isclude fondg-inte s.pplied usder the poblir distributien sy.t-. issued under Fend fee Werk P-rgramme and eeports dinsg the -aleed-r year. Sounce,: 1. Ministry of Agrianlt-re and Irrigatien, Depart-est of Feed. 2. World Bock essotites. - 211 - Table 7.7 IRRIGATION SUMMIARY (in million hectares) Surface Irrigation Total Major & Medium Minor Total Ground Irrigated Potential Utilization Surface Utilized Water Area (utilized) Ultimate Potential 57 57 15 72 40 112 Position at the end of: 1950/51 9.7 9.7 6.4 16.1 6.5 22.6 Ist Plan 12.2 11.0 6.4 17.4 7.6 25.0 2nd Plan 14.3 13.1 6.5 19.6 8.3 27.9 3rd Plan 15.6 15.2 6.5 21.7 10.1 31.8 1968/69 18.1 16.8 6.5 23.3 12.6 35.9 4th Plan 20.7 18.5 7.0 25.5 16.5 42.0 5th Plan 24.8 21.2 7.5 28.7 19.8 48.5 1978/79 25.9 22.3 7.8 30.1 20.9 51.0 1979/80 (Target) 27.2 23.5 8.0 31.5 22.2 53.7 1982/83 (Target) 31.3 26.5 9.0 35.5 26.8 62.3 Average Annual Increase Ist Plan 0.5 0.3 0.02 0.3 0.2 0.5 2nd Plan 0.4 0.4 0.04 0.5 0.1 0.6 3rd Plan 0.3 0.4 0.04 0.5 0.4 0.9 Annual Plans 0.8 0.5 0.03 0.5 0.8 1.3 4th Plan 0.5 0.4 0.10 0.5 0.8 1.3 5th Plan 1.0 0.7 0.13 0.8 0.8 1.6 1978/79 1.2 1.1 0.25 1.4 1.0 2.5 1979/80 (Target) 1.3 1.2 0.25 1.4 1.3 2.7 1978/79 - 1982/83 (Target) 1.3 1.1 0.30 1.4 1.4 2.8 Sources: 1. Report of Irrigation Commission 1972. 2. Report of National Commission on Agriculture. 3. Planning Commission: Draft Sixth Five-Year Plan, 1978-83 (Revised). 4. Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Central Water Commission and Central Groundwater Board. INDEt RU INIU7UiOlL PB0181TION - BY INIAJOTRIIAL GROU PS (Base 170 {0}_ A-sesoe Copound Grow.th Rate % lncroase .1oseaos~0epternbe - - pte -ess) Jseiuory-Beptenber 1979 hu- -_S~t 19~1- 1970- ee industry 0:7g I 05 lj560 1)65 1i068 i9p 557.3 1,7A 57 1)76 7473 jj78 757t 107 1975 i35.75 19575< 5gy6jteier.5 ~mining s voorroing 5369 -47 597 67.1 18. 26.-8 100.0 1055 -3475.- 12)74 5.19 16 . 142.1 141.4 M4(19 ±9- 1-.5 1.0 59.0 II -ionf ~aotr(l 1.9 509 45. 5 8. 7 599<7 112.2 115.9 116. 127.5 . I5< 144.A 146 145.0 5.7 --I ±9 t 1.0 Foo.d Induotnin- 7.74 41 .0 47.4 62.5 76.4 74.4 100.0 08.0 98.0 107.6 110 .5 118.4 198.4 142.6 154A.6 4.0 4.1 10.9 - 2.6 Beverge Indoetni-o 0.69 )37.0 75.1 56.59 84.1 "75.9 00.0 187.9 t85.1 174.5 298.9 947.0 9587.9 409.6 265.8 )5.7 18.5 11.8 -34.7 Toho-ee Ind-athe- 2.21 )l10.0~ 102.4 104.7 96.1 196.6 107.7 112.5 104.8E 122.7 51.5 4.5 +12.8 To-tilt 17.49 72.1 85.1 '91 .4 103.8 101.7 1 00.0 107.6 98.9 101.3 1o5.6 129 .9 109.7 11.0. 108.7 1.4 1.2 6.2 -1.2 Foot-eo 8 Other Beaing App-nlo mo,. 0.74 79 .4 25.7 62.0 105.0 119.1 100.0 92.5 09.9 971.5 99,.6 80.0 77.1 7~5. 72.4 3.5 -7.8 -9.1 t2.8 oes&CoeR nenept F,-isst-o 0.49 19.6 16.7 45.4 106.8 199j.1 100.0 119.7 124.4 110.4 114.2 151.4 124.7 124.0 122.7 7.4 2.8 --5.4 -1.7 po- ilrOd-ts 2.24 17.7 25.7 46.1 6 7. 8 l 5.2 100.0 105.9 110.1 100.0 110.7 112.4 121.0 121.7 122.9 7.9 2.4 7.7 1.3 L-ther A Poe Pr-duots o-opt Po-tr-- 0.42p 118.7 1603.7 163.9 2701 .1 165).2 100.9) 114.0 109.7 14,4.2 110.7j 104.2 71,6 67.7 74.7 0.2 -4.1 -31.3 +10.7 Bobber Pesduots 2.22 25.9 70.2, 46.2 77.7 93.4 100.9 112.0 119.0 122P.6 122.7 127.) 743.2 149.8 142.4 6,.7 o.6 12.0 + 1.7 Gheol& Ch-ijosl P-d-oto 72.70 19.2 25.0 42.9 755 04 u.9 100.7 128.1 125.7 171.7 155.5 i171.6 182.7 170.1 185.8 5.6 7.8 6.5± 4.7 Petroleu 8 Coot Products 1.62 3.7 18.0 77.5 57.1 06;. ' 170.0 111.4 112.4 119.1 124.4 172.7 141.4 177.7 171.7 15.6 7.4 i.7 9.8 RN-Bnnoi.lie tlihee-l Pr-duto 7.77 77.9 27.5 51.1 76.2 72.9 100).7 117.6 117.0 724.4 179.1 147.4 152.4 151.1 156.5 '.0 2.4 7.4 + 3.6 Bunhe mtotl 8eutno .04 22.1 215.-4 47.6 o6.I 72.7 107 10 . ) ")-4 "a0.7 119.0 177.9 144 .0 144.0F 145.4 140.9 '7.1 4.7 - .. .1 Oetul Po-duote -eoldheg llohi-cty 8Tranport Eqo,ipsst 2.-77 I2.6, 02.1 40.9 84.1 7 3.7 100.7' 116,.7~ '~. 126. F 177.5 7 177.7 154.9 15)4.7 162.2 19.1 s.6 17.1 a4.7 llouotr f M-ohi-ey --ept 5,55 5.4 0.7 24.5 78.6 02.0 100(.2O 179.7 1 49~.1 152.7 16;4.0 175.0 72.2 P 196.2 Ž27.8 1 4. 5. 12.5 +5.8 BEltteio,l O-hi-ely Uio-tniol Ooo-hi-ey, App-rt.. & 5.79 7.1 11.2 27.1 56.4 75.7 140.2- 147~.75 1?. 12-.7 o. 2 78(.5I 145.5 15'.1. 1(57.27 166.2 12.7 5.7 7.8 .10.3 Appliore- Tranpset Uqstpmsrt 7.79 14.7 74. 7(4.9~ 157.8 104.6 100.0 70,9.6 116.9 117.9 122.7 124.5 124.6 1 24 .0 1 25.8 8.8 2.8 7i.1 +1.5 i4noinssIndustries 1 . 0 142./278 77 1.6 778 10. 0.o7.9 97 72.91110 7.6 i6.1 12~5.2 7.375/ 5.9 74.2 +1R.6 III Oieotrioi75 Genera~te~d 7525 1C97 15.4 259 5.1 75<7 100lq.6 11i7<-7 _16 15. 100 160o I .3 1036 1)1)1.8 15< 11.2 2911.0) -7- It Gene-s Index 120.00 29-.7' 70. -4 5.4 Rlt<5 '111.4 XN2.0 112.0 114.5 415.3 7.7I9.3 759<7- 147. 6 146.6 It45.5 6.0 5. ±9 + 2.9 Rote: The indio- prior to 1970, onoliubtoo lirffro-t hoses ~, h-oc be,,- os--td to tone 1979. .8/ Belte- t0 1952. b/ ReIot-e to period 1952 to 1977. Iora I. CS0, 19088.32 6tutieotr_of she Prdotc o-olcedIlatie of Tndia, JiOly N Augao,t167.oplet 2. C000, Stotistio-l Abotrao5