http://www.worldbank.org/commodities A World Bank Report APRIL 2019 Commodity Markets Outlook UARY 26, 2016, 10:00AM EST (1500 GMT) EMBARGOED: NOT FOR NEWSWIRE TRANSMISSION, POSTING ON WEBSI Food Price Shocks: Channels and Implications Apr Oct APRIL 2019 Commodity Markets Outlook © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and con- clusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The maps were produced by the Map Design Unit of the World Bank. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Table of Contents Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................ v Executive Summary........................................................................................................................... 1 Special Focus: Food Price Shocks: Channels and Implications ............................................................ 5 Commodity market developments and outlook ................................................................................ 17 Energy ..................................................................................................................................... 19 Agriculture ............................................................................................................................... 24 Fertilizers ................................................................................................................................. 29 Metals and Minerals.................................................................................................................. 30 Precious Metals......................................................................................................................... 32 Appendix A: Historical commodity prices and price forecasts............................................................... 33 Appendix B: Supply-Demand balances ................................................................................................ 41 Appendix C: Description of price and technical notes .......................................................................... 73 Figures Figure 1 Commodity market developments ................................................................... 2 Figure SF.1 Global food prices ...................................................................................... 8 Figure SF.2 Macroeconomic channels of transmission from global food price changes ...... 9 Figure SF.3 Microeconomic channels of transmission from global food price changes ..... 10 Figure SF.4 Food-related government policies .............................................................. 11 Figure SF.5 Government interventions during the 2010-11 food price spike and their poverty impact............................................................................................................. 12 Figure 2 Oil market developments ................................................................................ 19 Figure 3 Oil production developments .......................................................................... 20 Figure 4 Oil market prospects....................................................................................... 21 Figure 5 Coal and natural gas developments .................................................................. 23 Figure 6 Agricultural price developments ..................................................................... 24 Figure 7 Supply conditions for grains and edible oils...................................................... 25 Figure 8 Demand conditions for grains and oilseeds....................................................... 26 Figure 9 Beverage commodity market developments ...................................................... 27 Figure 10 Agricultural raw materials market developments ............................................. 28 Figure 11 Fertilizer market developments ...................................................................... 29 Figure 12 Metals and minerals market developments ..................................................... 30 Figure 13 Precious metals market developments ........................................................... 32 iii Tables Table 1 Nominal price indexes and forecast revisions ................................................. 3 Table A.1 Commodity prices ..................................................................................... 35 Table A.2 Commodity prices forecasts in nominal U.S. dollars .................................. 37 Table A.3 Commodity prices forecasts in constant U.S. dollars (2010=100) .............. 38 Table A.4 Commodity price index forecasts (2010=100) ........................................... 39 iv Acknowledgments This World Bank Group Report is a product of the Prospects Group in the Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions Vice Presidency. The report was managed by John Baffes under the general guidance of Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge. Many people contributed to the report. Csilla Translation and Interpretation Unit provided Lakatos authored the Special Focus on food price support with translation and outreach. shocks. Peter Nagle authored the section on energy. John Baffes authored the section on The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook is agriculture. Wee Chian Koh authored the published twice a year, in April and October. The sections on metals, precious metals, and report provides detailed market analysis for major fertilizers. Jinxin Wu managed the report’s commodity groups, including energy, agriculture, database. The design and production of the fertilizers, metals, and precious metals. Price report was managed by Maria Hazel forecasts to 2030 for 46 commodities are Macadangdang, Adriana Maximiliano, and presented, together with historical price data. The Quinn Sutton; Mark Felsenthal and Mikael report also contains production, consumption, Reventar managed media relations and and trade statistics for major commodities. dissemination; and Graeme Littler produced the Commodity price data updates are published accompanying website. separately at the beginning of each month. Zhuo Chen, Mark Felsenthal, Graeme Littler, The report and data can be accessed at: Shane Streifel, and Franz Ulrich Ruch reviewed www.worldbank.org/commodities the report. Tomoko Hirai, Li Li, and members of the World Bank’s External and Corporate For inquiries and correspondence, email at: Relations Vice Presidency and General Services commodities@worldbank.org v COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK | APRIL 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 Executive Summary   Most commodity prices gained momentum in the first quarter of 2019 following last year’s declines, and many have recovered from the previous quarter’s lows. Energy prices have diverged as OPEC production cuts have lifted oil prices while record-high U.S. shale gas exports have depressed natural gas and, indirectly, coal prices. Most metal and mineral prices have recovered from losses in the last quarter of 2018, amid strengthening growth prospects for China and supply bottlenecks. Agricultural prices rose moderately in the first quarter on expectations of lower plantings. Crude oil prices, which averaged $68/bbl in 2018, are expected to average $66/bbl over 2019 and $65/bbl in 2020, with balanced risks primarily related to policy outcomes. Non-energy prices in 2019 are expected to remain below 2018 averages, before rising moderately in 2020 as the global economy emerges from its recent soft patch. A Special Focus section illustrates the adverse poverty implications of food price spikes that tend to be amplified by commonly used trade-related government responses. Recent trends and March, and reached levels of European natural gas prices by mid-April. This has in part The majority of energy, metal and mineral, and reflected a one-third increase in U.S. LNG exports agricultural commodity prices declined in the last and new capacity coming onstream in Australia quarter of 2018, only to rebound in the first and Qatar. quarter of 2019 (Figure 1). By March, more than half (although virtually none of the energy prices) Having fallen or having remained subdued in the had recouped their losses and returned to last quarter of 2018, most non-energy prices had September 2018 levels. The weakness of energy, recovered their losses by March, with particularly as well as metal and mineral prices in late 2018, strong rebounds in metals and minerals. This mainly reflected concerns about global growth, recovery in metal prices reflected improving growth especially in China amid trade tensions. Renewed prospects for China—which accounts for half of fiscal stimulus and the resumption of U.S.- global consumption—as well as a series of supply China trade negotiations in January, however, bottlenecks and concerns: the Vale dam accident improved growth prospects and supported a in Brazil (iron ore, nickel); heavy floods in Chile rebound in commodity prices. This rebound was (copper); protests in Peru (copper); smelter compounded by a series of commodity-specific restrictions in response to environmental concerns supply factors. in China (lead, zinc); and export restrictions in Indonesia (tin). Similarly, supply factors buoyed Since the beginning of 2019, the juxtaposition of the return to 2018 levels for most agricultural soaring U.S. shale oil and gas output and commodity prices. These included weather-related production restraint by the Organization of the planting delays for U.S. wheat and corn as well as Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lower expectations for U.S. soybean plantings on driven a wedge between oil and other energy prices. concerns about trade tensions. In the last quarter of 2018, against a backdrop of global growth concerns, rising oil production by Outlook and risks OPEC, and U.S. waivers on sanctions on Iran had triggered a plunge in Brent crude oil prices to a low As a result of the weak start into the year, energy of $52/bbl in mid-December from a peak of prices are expected to average 5.4 percent lower in $83/bbl in early October. Since then, oil prices 2019 than in 2018 (a downward revision from have recouped most of these losses on subsequent October) followed by a slight decline in 2020 production cuts by OPEC and its partners. In (Table 1). Non-energy prices are projected to contrast, Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) decline 2.1 percent in 2019 (a modest downward prices—which, on average through 2017 to mid revision from October) followed by a pick up in 2018 were almost triple U.S. prices—plunged by 2020. The outlook for commodity prices, more than one-third between September 2018 especially oil, is vulnerable to policy-related risks. 2 E X ECUTIVE SUMMARY C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 FIGURE 1 Commodity market developments International Maritime Organization’s sulfur Most commodity prices gained momentum during the first quarter of 2019. emissions regulation that takes effect on January 1, Production cuts by OPEC and its partners have substantially reduced 2020. Other risks include geopolitical events such global supply and supported oil prices. In contrast, prices of Asian LNG as conflict in Libya, weaker-than-expected growth imports have plunged on weaker demand and surging U.S. exports, which rose by one-third between 2018 Q3 and 2019 Q1. In 2019-20, U.S. farmers in major oil consumers, especially China and the intend to substitute soybean plantings with other crops, including maize. United States, and environmental policies. A. Commodity price indexes, B. Oil production, cumulative change Metal prices are expected to continue their monthly since October 2016 recovery in 2019 and 2020 following sharp drops in the second half of 2018. Supply concerns (especially in copper and zinc), disruptions (in iron ore production due to the tailings dam disaster in Brazil), and China’s fiscal stimulus are expected to provide support. Risks are broadly balanced. Downside risks include a weaker-than- expected demand boost from China’s fiscal stimulus and a prolonged stall in U.S.-China trade C. Natural gas: International prices D. U.S. crop planting intentions negotiations; upside risks include tighter-than- and U.S. LNG exports expected environmental policies and slower-than- expected easing of supply bottlenecks. Agricultural prices are expected to fall 2.6 percent in 2019, on average, amid ample stocks. In 2020, prices are expected to rise 1.7 percent on expected cuts in U.S. crop plantings and higher costs of energy and fertilizers. Risks to this outlook are to the upside. Higher-than-expected energy costs Source: Bloomberg, EIA, IEA, USDA, World Bank could lift prices of some crops such as grains and A. Last observation is March 2019. B. Last observation is February 2019. oilseeds. Greater-than-projected growth in biofuel C. Range of quarterly average natural gas prices in Japan, Europe, and the United States, with prices in Japan systematically the highest and those in the United States the lowest. Data for 2019 production could also lead to higher prices for Q2 show EIA expectations for LNG exports, and average prices for the first week of April 2019 . some food commodities. D. Years represent crop seasons (e.g., 2018 refers to 2018-19); 2019e refers to estimates from the March 29 USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report. Download data and charts. Special focus on food prices Oil prices are expected to average $66/bbl in 2019 In the event of large swings in world food prices, and $65/bbl in 2020, lower than the October countries often intervene to dampen the impact projections (by $8/bbl and $4/bbl, respectively). on domestic prices and to lessen the burden of The downward revisions reflect a weaker outlook adjustment for vulnerable population groups. for global growth in 2019 and much larger than While individual countries can succeed at expected increases in U.S. shale production. The insulating their domestic markets, the collective forecast assumes that production cuts by OPEC intervention of many countries may amplify and its partners will be sustained throughout movements in world prices. Trade policies 2019, and that demand will strengthen in 2020 in introduced during the 2010-11 food price spike tandem with a recovery from the current soft accounted for about 40 percent of the increase in patch in the global economy. Risks to the oil price the world price of wheat and one-quarter of the outlook—which are broadly balanced—relate increase in the world price of maize at that time. primarily to policy outcomes. These include Combined with government policy responses, the OPEC’s June meeting regarding production cuts, 2010-11 price spike tipped 8.3 million people the impact of the removal of waivers to the U.S. (about 1 percent of the world’s poor) into poverty. sanctions on Iran, and the effect of the COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK | APRIL 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 TABLE   1 Nominal price indexes and forecast revisions   Price Indexes (2010=100)1 Change (%) q/q Change (%) y/y Index revision3 2016 2017 2018 2019f2 2020f2 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019 2020 2019f2 2020f2 Energy 55 68 87 82 81 -9.5 -8.0 -5.4 -1.4 -9.6 -4.6 Non-Energy 3 79 84 85 83 85 -1.5 0.9 -2.1 1.4 -2.4 -2.2 Agriculture 87 87 87 84 86 -2.2 0.9 -2.6 1.7 -3.2 -3.2 Fertilizers 78 74 82 86 88 6.6 -5.4 4.8 1.7 3.6 3.4 Metals and minerals 63 78 83 81 82 -1.0 1.7 -1.9 0.8 -1.2 -0.8 Precious metals4 97 98 97 100 103 0.7 6.1 2.6 3.1 4.0 7.8 Memorandum items Crude oil ($/bbl) 43 53 68 66 65 -11.9 -6.0 -3.4 -1.5 -8.0 -4.0 Gold ($/toz) 1,249 1,258 1,269 1,310 1,360 1.3 6.1 3.2 3.8 65.1 129.0 Source: World Bank. Notes: (1) Numbers may differ from tables A.1-4 due to rounding. (2) "f" denotes forecasts. (3) Denotes revision to the forecasts from the October 2018 report (expressed as change in index value except for $/bbl for crude oil, and $/toz for gold). (4) The non-energy price index excludes precious metals. See Appendix C for definitions of prices and indexes. SPECIAL FOCUS Food Price Shocks: Channels and Implications C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 S P EC IAL FO CU S 7 Food Price Shocks: Channels and Implications Countries sometimes use trade policies to dampen the impact of international food price swings on domestic markets to lessen the burden of adjustment on vulnerable population groups. While individual countries can succeed at insulating their domestic markets from fluctuations in global food prices, the collective intervention of many countries may amplify the movements of world prices. Insulating policies introduced during the 2010-11 food price spike may have accounted for 40 percent of the increase in the world price of wheat and one-quarter of the increase in the world price of maize. Combined with government policy responses, the 2010-11 food price spike tipped 8.3 million people (almost 1 percent of the world’s poor) into poverty. Instead of trade policies, targeted safety net interventions such as cash transfers, food and in-kind transfers, and risk management instruments can be more effective in mitigating the negative effects of food price shocks on poor households. Introduction At the macroeconomic level, food price increases raise inflation and contribute to terms of trade Food commodities have experienced a large and shocks. At the microeconomic level, for broad-based price cycle during the past two households that are net sellers of food products, decades. Between 2000 and 2008, the World rising food prices can increase real incomes. Bank’s Food Price Index rose by 80 percent in real However, on average, higher food prices raise terms (Figure SF1). While prices have come down poverty, reduce nutrition, and curtail the from their 2008 highs, they are still 40 percent consumption of essential services such as higher than their 1985-2000 average, a period education and health care (World Bank 2011). characterized by moderate and stable prices. Countries often use policy interventions to Agricultural and food prices are expected to dampen the domestic impact of international food remain stable over the medium term. However, price spikes and lessen the burden on vulnerable sharp price changes stemming from energy price population groups. For example, during the 2007- fluctuations, adverse weather events, or trade 08 food price spike, close to three-quarters of tensions cannot be ruled out. First, higher-than- emerging market and developing economies expected energy prices, a key input in the (EMDEs) took policy actions to moderate the production of most agricultural commodities, impact (World Bank 2009). In the event of food could affect food prices, especially grains and price increases, net food-importing countries oilseeds. Energy prices affect agricultural usually intervene by lowering trade protection production costs directly (through fuel use) and (typically tariffs) on food items, while net food- indirectly (through fertilizer and other chemicals exporting countries impose export restrictions or use). They also create incentives to shift bans. These policies are often complemented with production to biofuels. Second, El Niño episodes, social safety net programs such as cash transfers or such as the one in 2016-17, could disrupt school feeding programs. commodity supplies, especially at a regional level, particularly in Central America, the Caribbean, To the extent that policy interventions reduce the and Southern Africa. Third, the growing transmission of international price surges to frequency of extreme weather events increases the domestic markets, they achieve their objective. risk of disruption to food production, food However, the combined intervention of many availability, and access to food. Finally, policy countries can exacerbate changes in international measures introduced by major producers and prices. Insulating policies introduced during price exporters in response to higher price shocks could spikes encourage consumption and dampen also affect prices (World Bank 2018). incentives to increase production. In turn, this results in higher import demand and reduced Food price increases have important macro- and export supply that can further drive up global microeconomic impacts through several channels. prices. During price plunges, government 8 S P EC IAL FO CU S C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 FIGURE SF.1 Global food prices • Reliance on food imports and production. Although food prices have declined considerably since their 2011 highs, Agriculture accounts for close to one-third of they are still significantly above their lows of the early 2000s. Evidence total value added and two-thirds of total points to a rise in undernourishment rates in the past two years, reversing employment in low-income countries (LICs). the declining trend observed in the previous decade. This is almost three times as much as in the average EMDE (Figure SF2; Aksoy and A. Global food prices, annual B. Global food prices, quarterly Beghin 2004). In addition, more than three- quarters of LICs are net food importers, compared to only half of EMDEs. • Inflation. A rise in food prices increases headline consumer price inflation. For example, during the latest food price spikes, LIC inflation more than doubled, from 7 to 15 percent during 2007-2008 and from 5 to C. Global undernourishment D. Regional undernourishment 11 percent during 2010-2011. The increase in EMDE inflation was less pronounced, rising from 7 to 11 percent during 2007-2008 and from 5 to 6 percent during 2010-2011. Food prices accounted disproportionately for these increases in inflation—about two-thirds in LICs and more than half in EMDEs. • Terms of trade. Sharp increases in food prices can result in significant adverse terms of trade Source: FAO; World Bank. A. Based on yearly commodity price indexes between 1960-2017. shocks that lower growth, especially in C.D. Undernourishment is defined a state, lasting for at least one year, of inability to acquire enough food, defined as a level of food intake insufficient to meet dietary energy requirements. countries that are large net importers of food. D. EAP = East Asia and Pacific, LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean, SAR = South Asia, and In heavy food importers, the exchange rate SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. Download data and charts. depreciation typically associated with adverse terms of trade shocks can compel central interventions encourage exports that tend to banks to tighten monetary policy, which can depress world prices. Only countries that insulate further lower growth. Indeed, during the themselves to an above-average degree can reduce 2007-08 food price spike, close to half of price volatility in their domestic markets EMDE central banks responded to rising (Anderson, Martin, and Ivanic 2017). inflation and currency depreciation by tightening monetary policy. In this context, this essay addresses the following questions: How do food price shocks affect • Fiscal policy. Absent stabilizing fiscal EMDEs? How do countries intervene to reduce arrangements, heavy reliance on food and the impact of food price shocks? What was the agricultural trade can contribute to volatility impact of the 2010-11 food price spike on in public finances and erode fiscal poverty? sustainability. When food prices fall, revenue losses in the agricultural sector are exacerbated The impact of food price shocks by political pressures to subsidize food production. Food price spikes may also cause At the macroeconomic level, a high share of sociopolitical instability, including political agriculture and food in total output, consump- unrest (Barrett 2013). tion, employment, trade, and government revenues heightens the vulnerability of countries At the microeconomic level, a high share of net to volatility in international food prices. food buyers among the poorest segments of society C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 S P EC IAL FO CU S 9 heightens the adverse effects of food price spikes FIGURE SF.2 Macroeconomic channels of transmission on poverty and income inequality. Rising food from global food price changes prices impact households through price and A high share of agriculture and food in total output, consumption, income channels. They can reduce household employment, trade, and government revenues heightens the vulnerability of purchasing power via higher food prices. countries to sharp movements in international food prices. However, they can also raise income generated from food production. The overall impact on A. Share of agriculture in economy B. Net food imports and exports poverty and income inequality depends on the relative magnitude of these effects for households in different segments of the income distribution. • Food consumption in the average household. In LICs, households spend, on average, close to 60 percent of their income on food (Figure SF3). More than one-third of LIC household consumption expenditure on food is spent on staple foods such as cereals and vegetables. C. Inflation in LICs D. Contribution of food prices to inflation These staple foods are considerably more exposed to international price volatility than domestically processed food products. • Net food buyers and sellers. For households that are net sellers of agricultural and food products, rising food prices raise incomes. In contrast, poor urban households who are typically net buyers of food spend a large Source: World Bank. share of their consumption expenditure on A. Based on a sample of 93 non-LIC EMDEs and 21 LICs. Averages for 2010-16. food (Aksoy and Hoekman 2010). On B. Blue bars show the share of non-LIC EMDEs or LICs in which food imports exceed food exports (“Net food importers”) or food imports fall short of food exports (“Net food exporters”). Red bars show average, many of the poor in EMDEs and net food imports relative to consumption in non-LIC EMDE and LIC food exporters and importers. C. Average inflation based on a sample of 12 LICs. LICs are net buyers of food. As a result, food D. Share of inflation accounted for by food price inflation. price spikes tend to raise poverty, reduce Download data and charts. nutrition, and cut consumption of essential services such as education and health care.1 In medium to long run.2 Alternatively, governments extreme cases, food price spikes can lead to can spare consumers or producers from these food insecurity and hunger, with severe losses by reducing the transmission of adverse long-term impacts on human capital. international food price shocks to domestic markets.3 In practice, governments in EMDEs Government policy responses. In the event of large swings in global food prices, governments are 2 The decline in real incomes associated with higher inflation confronted with difficult policy choices. One could entail welfare losses (Gouel and Jean 2015; Freund and Ozden option is to allow domestic prices to adjust to 2008; Giordani, Rocha, and Ruta 2016; Easterly and Fischer 2001). In principle, monetary policy tightening can offset inflationary effects world food price changes, exposing domestic from rising global food prices to ensure that rising food prices remain consumers and producers to changes in their real a purely relative price change and do not become entrenched in high- incomes. Such an adjustment, however, may raise er inflation. However, this would come at the cost of reduced eco- nomic activity (Lustig 2009). inflation in the short run, and in countries where 3 Policymakers may also have a longer-term goal to protect (or to inflation expectations are poorly anchored, in the tax) domestic agents (Grossman and Helpman 1994). In empirical work based on political economy models, government interventions vary to reduce both the costs associated with adjusting prices and the costs of providing interventions that differ from the long-run political 1 If food price spikes are associated with a positive, large, and equilibrium (Anderson and Nelgen 2011; Ivanic and Martin 2014). quick agricultural supply response they can lead to a reduction in The less-than-perfect pass through of world price shocks into domes- poverty (Headey 2018). tic markets is explicitly considered. 10 S P EC IAL FO CU S C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 FIGURE SF.3 Microeconomic channels of transmission prices to return to their original relationship with from global food price changes international prices. The movements of world and A high share of net food buyers among the poorest segments of the domestic staple food prices during the latest two population heightens the adverse effects of food price spikes on income food price spikes (2007-08 and 2010-11) distribution and poverty. resembled similar earlier episodes: world prices rose rapidly, while domestic prices rose only A. Share of food in total consumption B. Consumption expenditure by gradually. However, the 2010-11 spike was expenditure product of the poorest households different from previous episodes in several aspects. The 2007-08 increase in food prices came after a long period of stability in food prices. In 2007-08, world prices of all staple foods increased steeply, led by rice. Government interventions. During the 2007-08 food price spike, close to three-quarters of EMDEs took action to insulate their economies (World C. Share of net food sellers D. Share of income generated by food Bank 2009). The most commonly used interventions were reductions in taxes, including import duties and consumer taxes (Figure SF4). Net importers frequently intervened by lowering import tariffs or even by introducing import subsidies, while net exporters imposed export restrictions to dampen price increase. In contrast, the 2010-11 food price spike episode occurred when world markets and policies were still normalizing from the 2007-08 episode. Source: International Food Policy Research Institute; World Bank. A. Indicates share of food in total consumption expenditure of households. Data is available for 19 Government interventions differed considerably AEs, 63 non-LIC EMDEs and 25 LICs. The base year of the household surveys differs but the data has been converted to a common reference year, 2010. The share of income spent on food is likely across countries and across commodities. On to be different. B. Indicates the share of products in total household consumption expenditure. Data is available for average, policy actions actually contributed to a 19 AEs, 63 non-LIC EMDEs and 25 LICs. The base year of the household surveys differs but the data has been converted to a common reference year, 2010. The share of income spent on food is decline in the world price of rice. likely to be different. C.D. Averages weighted by the number of poor for a sample of 22 non-LIC EMDEs and 7 LICs. Poverty line is defined as $1.90/day. • Rice. Between 2007Q1 and 2008Q2, world Download data and charts. rice prices increased by 170 percent. This sharp increase reflected export restrictions introduced by major producers (e.g., India tend to respond particularly strongly to sharp and Vietnam) motivated by food security changes in the world prices of staple foods—such concerns, panic buying by several large as rice, wheat and maize—to reduce the volatility importers, a weak dollar, and record high oil of domestic prices. For staple foods, domestic prices, a major input into food production price movements can diverge substantially from (Baffes and Haniotis 2016). During this international price movements in the short run, episode, domestic markets were largely but converge in the longer term. insulated (Ivanic and Martin 2008). By contrast, during the 2010-11 price spike, rice Evolution of global and domestic prices increased much less, about 30 percent food prices between June 2010 and May 2012. In some countries, adverse supply conditions, Food price spikes during the 2000s. Domestic combined with changes in non-tariff trade food prices are considerably less volatile than policies, resulted in domestic rice prices rising global food prices in the short run. However, over above world prices. Instead of policies aimed the longer term there is a tendency for domestic at insulating domestic markets, EMDEs C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 S P EC IAL FO CU S 11 typically implemented measures that raised FIGURE SF.4 Food-related government policies domestic prices relative to world prices. Insulation policies undertaken during the 2010-11 episode amplified the increase of world prices and accounted for about 40 percent of the • Wheat. Between 2007Q1 and 2008Q2, increase in the world price of wheat and one-quarter of the increase in the world wheat prices increased by 75 percent, world price of maize. partly in response to lower-than-anticipated A. Interventions in agricultural B. Policy interventions during the production caused by drought in Australia, markets 2007-08 food price spike Ukraine, and other major exporters. Strong policy intervention partially insulated domestic markets from the price spike and subsequent collapse in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Similarly, during the 2010-11 event, world wheat prices more than doubled between June 2010 and May 2011. This time, the increase in world prices was partly driven by lower-than-expected production and exports in Kazakhstan, Russia, C. Insulation and correction D. Increase in world prices, 2010-11 coefficients and Ukraine and excessive rains in Australia that damaged crops. Large orders from major wheat importers in the Middle East and North Africa added to price pressures. • Maize. During the 2007-08 food price spike, the world price of maize rose by 50 percent, partly as a result of increasing U.S. demand for maize stimulated by mandatory targets for ethanol production. Similarly, during the Source: Ag-Incentives Database, Ivanic and Martin (2014), World Bank. A. Nominal rate of protection is computed as the price difference between the farm gate price 2010-11 episode, the world price of maize received by producers and an undistorted reference price at the farm gate level. increased significantly. As in the case of B. Percent of respondents based on a survey of 80 EMDEs. C.D. Estimates based on an Error Correction Model described in Laborde, Lakatos, and Martin (2019). wheat, adverse weather-related events in major The coefficient of price insulation ranges from 0 for countries that do not insulate against the rise in world prices, to -1 for countries that adopt policies that fully insulate domestic markets. Based on data maize exporting countries contributed to the for 82 countries, of which 26 are advanced economies, 44 are non-LIC EMDEs, and 12 are LICs for the period 1955-2011. jump in world prices. In contrast, many Download data and charts. countries in Sub-Saharan Africa benefitted from excellent maize harvests, which in combination with unpredictable trade policies countries, of which 44 are EMDEs and 12 are led to sharp falls in domestic prices. LICs, during 1955-2011. Insulation of domestic food markets Estimates of short-term insulation. Estimates point to considerable short-term insulation in Measuring the insulation of domestic markets. markets for key staple foods such as rice and wheat Governments intervene to insulate domestic (Figure SF4). Among these three grains, insulation prices from global food price swings. The degree is the highest for rice. In the short run, a 10 of insulation is quantified using an Error percent increase in global rice, wheat, and maize Correction Model that estimates the short- and prices is associated with an increase in domestic long-run response of domestic food prices to prices of 6 percent, 7 percent, and 8 percent, global food commodity prices (Laborde, Lakatos, respectively.4 and Martin 2019). The model estimates the degree of insulation to global price changes in both the 4 Ba es, Kshirsagar, and Mitchell (2019) argue that domestic short run and long run. The sample includes prices respond faster to regional prices than to the international annual data for 8 food commodity prices in 82 benchmark. 12 S P EC IAL FO CU S C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 FIGURE SF.5 Government interventions during the 2010- interventions (Chapoto and Jayne 2009).5 The use 11 food price spike and their poverty impact of an export ban during food price spikes The 2010-11 food price spike raised global poverty. The combined impact illustrates the tradeoff between different policy of all government interventions raised poverty worldwide, except in a few instruments: countries. • Ensuring food security. By restricting the sale of A. Decline in protection rates, B. Increase in protection rates, food for exports, an export ban increases 2010-11 2010-11 domestic supply and dampens domestic food price increases. This can help net-food buyers access food. • Alleviating poverty. Net food sellers are likely to be hardest-hit by price hikes caused by drought. An export ban reduces their ability to mitigate their production losses with higher incomes from higher prices. If these farmers are among the poorer segments of the income C. Global poverty impact of policy D. Regional poverty impact of the responses to the 2010-11 food price 2010-11 food price shock distribution, the export ban will likely increase shock poverty, as it did in Zambia during the 2016- 17 El Niño event (Al-Mamun et al. 2017). • Volatility. While export bans may alleviate price pressures during a specific situation, they affect domestic prices by preventing domestic shocks from being dissipated through changes in trade. If bans are backed up by stockholding measures they can be consistent Source: World Bank. with domestic price stabilization, perhaps at A. Changes in the rates of protection are presented in the form: Ti = ∆t/(1+t 0), where t is the initial the cost of higher fiscal outlays (see Gouel, rate of protection (positive if an import tariff or export subsidy) and ∆t is the change in this rate of protection. If the change in the rate of protection is negative during a period of rising world prices, Gautam, and Martin 2016 for the case of countries are seeking to insulate their markets from the increase in prices. If it is positive, policymakers are compounding the increase in world prices with an increase in protection, which may India). be due to the correction of past “errors”: If domestic prices fall below policymakers’ desired long-run level of protection, or if a policy that insulated the domestic market from world markets and a subsequent exogenous shock—such as a harvest shortfall—has caused the domestic price to rise relative to the world price. Synchronous policy measures. While individual C.D. Based on estimates using the MIRAGRODEP computable general equilibrium model and countries can succeed at insulating their domestic assuming increases in the price of maize, rice, and wheat as represented in Figure SF.4.D. Based on a poverty line of $1.90/day. markets from short-term fluctuations in global C. EAP = East Asia and Pacific; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; MNA = Middle East and North Africa; SAR = South Asia; and SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. food prices, their combined policies could affect Download data and charts. world prices. Government interventions tend to increase consumption and reduce production during price spikes and support production and discourage consumption during price plunges. Effectiveness of insulating policy measures. During price spikes, this results in higher import Certain types of interventions in markets for staple demand (or lower exports) and, hence, even higher foods have raised volatility in domestic markets. world prices. During price plunges, the For example, during the 2008-09 food price spike, several African countries intervened using food pricing, marketing, and trade policies to stabilize 5 After abstaining from the use of interventions in staple food domestic maize markets. Countries that markets for several years, policymakers in eastern and southern Africa used extensively pricing, marketing, and trade policy tools during the intervened most intensively experienced the 2015-16 agricultural season to contain the impact of an El Niño- highest domestic price volatility, mostly because of induced decline in output and food security (Al-Mamun et al. 2017; the ad hoc and unpredictable nature of these Tschirley and Jayne 2010). C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 S P EC IAL FO CU S 13 interventions encourage greater exports and, as a in domestic and world prices for 57 countries and result, lower world prices. 68 agricultural and food commodities during 2005-2015.6 Where data from the Ag-Incentives Poverty impact of the 2010-11 database were unavailable, alternative data were food price shock used from FAOSTAT, GIEWS and Fewsnet.7 Overall, this analysis covers 24 major food- The impact of the 2010-11 food price shock on producing and consuming countries, using data poverty is quantified in two steps. The first step on household income sources and spending estimates protection rates to capture government patterns from 2011. Of these, 18 are EMDEs and interventions (Anderson, Ivanic, and Martin 6 are LICs. 2014). In the second step, these estimates are fed into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) Impact of policy interventions on global prices. model in combination with household models for During the food price spike of 2010-11, world 285,000 households from 31 countries to deter- prices of maize, wheat and rice rose by 44 percent, mine the impact of policy interventions on 39 percent, and 6 percent, respectively. Results poverty (Laborde, Robichaud and Tokgoz 2013; suggest that the combined action of many Laborde, Lakatos, and Martin 2019). Two scenarios governments amplified global wheat and maize are compared. In the first scenario, the impact of price increases, accounting for about 40 percent of countries’ own interventions on poverty is the increase in world price of wheat and one- considered. In the second scenario, the combined quarter of the increase in the price of maize effect of all policy interventions on global food (Figure SF4). In contrast, combined policy action markets and their feedback to domestic poverty is reduced the rice price surge compared to a non- quantified. action scenario. This primarily reflects the elimination of export restrictions in India and the Quantifying policy interventions. A primary increased import protection in Indonesia, shock, such as a weather shock, is assumed to Pakistan, Uganda, and Yemen. generate initial production shortfalls that are calibrated to match the observed changes in • Wheat. Most EMDEs took measures to offset protection rates and world prices. Government the increase in global wheat prices in 2010-11, interventions to suppress the pass-through of broadly similar to those employed during the domestic prices from global food price spikes are spike in wheat prices in 2007-08. reflected in a falling ratio of domestic to world Policymakers justified efforts to dampen the prices—the “protection rate.” If the protection impact of the global wheat price spike by rate rises, policymakers are compounding the noting that the world wheat price spike partly increase in world prices. Protection rates are reflected a catching up with rising domestic assumed to reflect trade measures by governments, wheat prices.8 The combined intervention of such as the introduction of export bans (food exporters) or the reduction of import duties (food importers). These policy responses are calibrated 6 The data is available at www.ag-incentives.org. 7 FAOSTAT refers to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organiza- to match the observed protection rates and world tion Statistics, GIEWS is the Global Information and Early Warning price increases in 2010-11. As the model System, and Fewsnet is the Farming Early Warning Systems Net- distinguishes between domestic and imported work. 8 Ethiopia, where domestic wheat prices rose 28 percentage points goods, two potential policy instruments are more than world prices during 2010-11, is an exception. This re- considered—an import duty (or subsidy) and an flected domestic supply shocks, combined with limited access to export subsidy (or tax). These measures, in turn, global wheat markets to alleviate shortages. In particular, wheat out- put fell by 10 percent in 2010-11 as a result of a fungus that de- reinforce the original shock to world prices. The stroyed the wheat harvest and lowered stocks in 2011. Wheat imports data used for quantifying the extent of trade policy rose but were constrained by tight foreign exchange controls, effec- interventions are taken primarily from the Ag- tively stopping private sector imports and ensuing that all grain im- ports are channeled through the state-owned Ethiopian Grain Trade Incentives Consortium database reflecting changes Enterprise (Negassa and Jayne 1997; Wakeyo and Lanos 2014). 14 S P EC IAL FO CU S C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 countries accounted for close to 40 percent of world’s poor) into poverty (Figure SF5). This is the increase in the world price of wheat. the marginal impact of the food price shocks on poverty levels; due to other forces the actual • Maize. Although most countries insulated number of people living in poverty fell by 128 their domestic maize markets against maize million over this period. The increase in world price increases during 2010-11, there was food prices, combined with government considerable heterogeneity in policy responses. intervention, was most strongly felt in countries In Bangladesh, Ecuador, Malawi, Tanzania, such as India and Uganda, where the extreme poor and Zambia, protection rates fell, fully tend to be net food-buyers whose real incomes offsetting the rise in global maize prices. declined.9 These poverty impacts are less Ethiopia, Uganda, and Yemen increased pronounced compared to the 2007-08 food price protection rates or used policies that, in shock, due to the latter’s greater severity, stronger combination with domestic output shocks, world-domestic price transmission, and higher amplified the increase in domestic prices. initial poverty rates (Ivanic and Martin 2008; Anderson, Ivanic, and Martin 2014; Laborde, • Rice. Some countries (e.g., Bangladesh, Nepal, Lakatos, and Martin 2019). Panama, Tanzania, and Zambia) reduced trade barriers to partially offset the rise in Conclusion world rice prices. However, important net rice exporters such as India, Pakistan, and Yemen Following post-2000 food price increases, many implemented policy interventions that countries used trade policies to insulate domestic ultimately raised domestic rice prices more markets from increases in world prices. Such than the increase in world prices. In India, the policies became increasingly common during the world’s second-largest rice producer, 2010-11 food price spike. While each country’s quantitative restrictions imposed in 2007 policies dampened domestic price movements, the initially prevented domestic price increases. combined use of policies by many countries However, the subsequent abolition of export amplified the increase in world prices. Insulation quotas in September 2011 resulted in a surge policies accounted for 40 percent of the increase in in exports and a rise in domestic prices. In world wheat prices and one-quarter for world Pakistan, heavy summer flooding that affected maize prices. The increase in food prices one-fifth of the country’s land area and combined with government policy responses in inflicted extensive damage to crops raised 2010-11 tipped 8.3 million people into poverty. domestic rice prices relative to the world price These findings highlight how the use of trade over the same period. A large increase in policy interventions to insulate domestic markets domestic prices relative to external prices from food price shocks can amplify international occurred in Yemen, amid persistent water price movements, and may not be effective in shortages and a shift to less water-intensive protecting the most vulnerable populations non-staple crops; in Ethiopia and Uganda, groups. and cause was drought. The combined intervention of all countries dampened the Instead of trade policy interventions, policy increase in the world price of rice by about 50 makers could use other policies to soften the percent compared to a scenario without impact of large food price fluctuations. These insulation policies. include targeted safety-net interventions such as cash transfers, food and in-kind transfers, school Poverty impact of 2010-11 food price spike with policy intervention. Model results suggest that despite widespread interventions, the food price 9 Results reported here do not take into account the impact of spikes of 2010-11 still raised poverty in most safety-net programs such as India’s Public Distribution System, countries. Globally, the 2010-11 food price spike which distributes food to poor households at fixed prices and so tipped 8.3 million people (almost 1 percent of the automatically makes larger transfers to the poor when food prices rise. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 S P EC IAL FO CU S 15 feeding programs, and public works programs. Barrett, C. 2013. Food Security and Sociopolitical Measures such as crop and weather insurance and Stability. Oxford: Oxford University Press. warehouse receipt systems could also be used as risk management instruments. These interventions Chapoto, A., and T. S. Jayne. 2009. “Effects of could be combined with targeted nutrition and Maize Marketing and Trade Policy on Price health programs as well as regulatory interventions Unpredictability in Zambia.” Food Security to improve health outcomes. Collaborative Working Papers 54499, Michigan State University. References Easterly, W., and S. Fischer. 2001, “Inflation and Aksoy, M. A., and J. C. Beghin. 2004. Global the Poor.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries. 33 (2): 160-78. Washington, DC: World Bank. Freund, C., and C. Ozden. 2008. “Trade Policy and Aksoy, M. A., and B. Hoekman. 2010. Food Price Loss Aversion.” The American Economic Review 98 (4): 1675–91. and Rural Poverty. Washington, DC: World Bank. Giordani, P., N. Rocha, and M. Ruta. 2016. “Food Al-Mamun, A., A. Chapoto, B. Chisanga, W. Prices and the Multiplier Effect of Trade Policy.” Martin, and P. Samboko. 2017. “El Niño Impacts Journal of International Economics 101 (1): 102–22. and Trade Policy Responses on Grain Markets and Trade in Eastern and Southern Africa.” Gouel, C., M. Gautam, and W. Martin. 2016. Mimeo. International Food Policy Research “Managing Food Price Volatility in a Large Open Institute, Washington, DC. Country: The Case Of Wheat In India.” Oxford Economic Papers 68 (3): 811–35. Anderson, K., M. Ivanic, and W. Martin. 2014. “Food Price Spikes, Price Insulation and Poverty.” Gouel, C., and S. Jean. 2015. “Optimal Food In The Economics of Food Price Volatility, edited by Price Stabilization in a Small Open Developing J. P. Chavas, D. Hummels, and B. Wright. Country.” World Bank Economic Review 29 (1): Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 74-101. Anderson, K., W. Martin, and M. Ivanic. 2017. Grossman, G., and E. Helpman. 1994. “Protection for “Food Price Changes, Domestic Price Insulation Sale.” The American Economic Review 84 (4): 833-50. and Poverty (When All Policymakers Want to be Above-Average).” In Agriculture and Rural Headey, D. 2018. “Food Prices and Poverty.” The Development in a Transforming World, edited by P. World Bank Economic Review 32 (3): 676-691. Pingali and G. Feder. London: Routledge. Ivanic, M., and W. Martin. 2008. “Implications Anderson, K., and S. Nelgen. 2011. “Trade of Higher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low- Barrier Volatility and Agricultural Price Income Countries.” Policy Research Working Stabilization.” World Development 40 (1): 36-48. Paper 4594, World Bank, Washington, DC. Baffes, J., and T. Haniotis. 2016. “What Explains ———. 2014. “Implications of Domestic Price Agricultural Price Movements?” Journal of Insulation for Global Food Price Behavior.” Agricultural Economics 67 (3): 706-721. Journal of International Money and Finance 42 (1): 272-288. Baffes, J., V. Kshirsagar, and D. Mitchell. 2019. “What Drives Local Food Prices? Evidence From Laborde, D., C. Lakatos, and W. Martin. 2019. the Tanzanian Maize Market.” The World Bank “Poverty Impact of Food Price Shocks and Economic Review 33 (1): 160-184. Policies.” In Inflation in Emerging and Developing 16 S P EC IAL FO CU S C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Economies—Evolution, Drivers, and Policies, edited Tschirley, D., and T. Jayne. 2010. “Exploring the by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Logic Behind Southern Africa’s Food Crises.” Ohnsorge, 371-401. Washington, DC: World World Development 38 (1): 76–87. Bank Group. Wakeyo, M., and B. Lanos. 2014. “Analysis of Laborde, D., V. 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Commodity Market Developments and Outlook C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 ENERGY 19 FIGURE 2 Oil market developments Energy Crude oil prices recovered over the first quarter of 2019, with Brent Energy prices partially recovered in the first quarter reaching $74 in April. Price differentials for different types of crude oil fell amid reduced transport bottlenecks in the United States and production of 2019, following a steep decline in almost all energy restraint in Canada. Oil demand remained robust in 2018, and growth in prices in the preceding quarter. However, there has 2019 is expected to be driven by China and India, a continuation of a been significant divergence between different energy longer-term shift away from advanced economies. commodities. Oil prices have risen 34 percent since the start of the year, amid production cuts by the A. Crude oil prices B. Crude oil price differentials Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, and supply disruptions elsewhere. In contrast, natural gas prices fell sharply in March and into April in part due to rising liquefied natural gas exports from the United States and Australia, which also weighed on the prices of coal as a close substitute to natural gas. Oil prices are expected to decline from recent highs and average $66/bbl in 2019 and $65/bbl in 2020, with risks around this outlook broadly balanced. C. Oil demand growth D. Shares of global oil demand Crude oil Recent developments Crude oil prices fell 6 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (q/q) following a 11.5 percent decline in the previous quarter (Figure 2). However, prices have risen steadily since the start of the year, with the Source: Bloomberg, IEA, World Bank. price of Brent crude oil reaching $74/bbl and A. Last observation is April 19, 2019. B. Lines show differences compared with WTI Cushing. Last observation is April 19, 2019. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reaching $66/bbl C. Shaded area shows IEA forecast for 2019. in late April. These fluctuations have been driven D. 2024f indicates IEA forecast. Download data and charts. by supply developments: in November the United States granted waivers to its sanctions against Iran to eight countries, which, together with a sharp increase in supply among OPEC countries, production cuts of 0.3 million barrels per day primarily Saudi Arabia, resulted in much higher- (mb/d) in January, an intervention that has since than-expected global production in the last quarter substantially boosted Western Canadian prices. of 2018. This contributed to oil prices plunging Similarly, WTI Midland (the price of oil in the 41 percent between mid-October and December. Permian region) was trading at a discount of $18 However, subsequent production cuts by OPEC to WTI Cushing because of transport bottlenecks, and its partners, together with supply disruptions but eased towards parity in the second half of elsewhere, have since boosted prices. 2018, assisted by technological developments such as improved pipeline management. There have also been sizeable movements in the prices of different grades of crude oil. Western Global consumption of crude oil rose 1.1 percent in Canadian oil had been trading at a very large the first quarter of 2019 (y/y), a slight acceleration discount to WTI Cushing, the U.S. benchmark, relative to the previous quarter. China, India, and because of severe transport bottlenecks, with the the United States accounted for most of the spread reaching $50/bbl in October. This led the increase. Oil consumption expanded 3 percent province of Alberta to enforce mandatory (0.4 mb/d) in China, although the pace of growth 20 ENERGY C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 FIGURE 3 Oil production developments forecasts. Global growth in 2019 is expected to be weaker than previously forecast, although the Global oil production fell sharply in the first quarter of 2019, following a steep increase in the second half of 2018. OPEC and its partners weakness should be temporary. Non-OECD substantially cut production, while output also fell sharply in Iran and countries are expected to continue to account for Venezuela. U.S. oil production rose at the fastest pace ever recorded in most of the increase in demand given their higher any country in 2018, contributing to a sharp increase in exports. growth rates relative to advanced economies. A. Cumulative changes in crude oil B. Venezuelan oil exports, by partner production Beyond 2020, OECD oil consumption growth is expected to be negligible according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s Oil Market Report 2019, with small increases in North America offset by declines in Europe and Japan as efficiency and environmental policies reduce oil consumption, particularly in the transport sector. Non-OECD consumption growth is expected to average around 2 percent per year over the next five years, but gradually slow as countries continue C. Top 10 one-year increases in oil D. U.S. oil production and trade, to improve energy efficiency and strengthen production, by country and year by product environmental policies. Global oil production plunged in the first quarter of 2019, following a sharp expansion in the preceding quarter (Figure 3). The increase at the end of last year was primarily due to Saudi Arabia, who substantially increased production between June and October by 0.6 mb/d in anticipation of the U.S. sanctions on Iran. However, in Source: Bloomberg, EIA, IEA, World Bank. A. Change in crude oil production since October 2016, the date of the first OPEC production cut November the U.S. decided to grant waivers to agreement. OPEC excludes Qatar. Last observation is March 2019. the sanctions to eight countries, including China C. The number in brackets is the year in which the increase occurred. “Other liquids” include conden- sates and natural gas liquids. Sample begins in 1984. and India (which together account for 18 percent D. NGLs stands for “natural gas liquids.” Download data and charts. of global oil consumption). This led to much higher-than-expected levels of production in has been slowing, partly because of environmental November and December, contributing to a rise policies. For example, demand from the transport in inventories and declining prices. sector has been dampened by the use of vehicle quotas in major cities which has restricted new In response to these developments, OPEC and its vehicle sales. Growth in the United States has coalition of partners, including Russia, agreed to been strong in recent quarters and rose 1.4 percent implement production cuts of 1.2 mb/d starting (0.3 mb/d) in the first quarter of 2019 (y/y). in 2019. Compliance with the agreement by Strong economic growth, increased demand from OPEC members has been strong, and output has the transport sector (particularly for e-commerce), fallen by more than agreed levels. Production and a booming petrochemical industry all curtailments have been led by Saudi Arabia, which contributed to the rise. Oil consumption among reduced output by 8 percent (0.81 mb/d) between other advanced economies has fallen, with a October 2018 and March 2019, compared with decline of 0.1 mb/d in both Germany and Japan its agreed cut of 3 percent (0.32 mb/d). Non- on weaker economic activity. OPEC countries have been slower to adhere to the reduction, with Russia projected to reach its target Consumption is expected to rise by 1.2 percent in in April. OPEC and its partners are expected to 2019, somewhat less than expected in the October decide whether to extend production limits at 2018 report and toward the lower end of industry their meeting in June. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 ENERGY 21 Production has also fallen in Iran and Venezuela, FIGURE 4 Oil market prospects which are exempt from the OPEC agreement. The Oil prices are expected to average $66/bbl in 2019, amid weaker impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian production, expectations for demand growth in 2019, rising U.S. production, and despite the existing waivers, has been substantial. OPEC restraint. Increased levels of spare capacity in OPEC countries and adequate inventories provide a buffer against unexpected outages. Output is down almost 30 percent (1.1 mb/d) relative to its peak in the second quarter of 2018, and comparable to the impact of earlier sanctions A. Evolution of 2019 oil demand B. Non-OPEC oil production growth growth forecasts forecasts in 2014. In Venezuela crude oil production has fallen by a third (0.4 mb/d) since September, to just 0.9 mb/d in March 2019. This deterioration reflects the worsening political and economic situation in the country, including prolonged power cuts. New U.S. sanctions on Venezuela have also affected the oil industry—U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil fell from an average of 0.5 mb/d in 2018 to zero in February, although there has been some diversion of Venezuelan oil exports to C. OPEC spare capacity D. OECD oil inventories other countries such as China and India. Oil production in the United States surged 2.4 mb/d in 2018 Q4 (y/y), double the increase expected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report in January 2018. An increase in investment, together with efficiency gains and innovative solutions to transport bottlenecks, allowed U.S. oil Source: Bloomberg, EIA, IEA, OPEC, World Bank. production, including natural gas liquids (NGLs), B. Chart shows latest forecasts for non-OPEC production by the EIA, IEA, and OPEC. N.A. indicates to increase at the fastest annual pace recorded by data are not available. C. OPEC includes Saudi Arabia. any country. Indeed, the shale boom has led the D. Trailing 5-year moving average. Download data and charts. U.S. to account for five of the ten largest one-year increases in oil production globally since 1984, all occurring in the last six years. As a result of the sharp increase in production, U.S. exports of oil, NGLs, and petroleum In contrast to the previous year’s surge, U.S. oil products have risen sharply, although the U.S. production was almost unchanged in the first remains a net importer of these liquids. The IEA quarter of 2019 relative to the previous quarter. expects the United States will become a net The rig count fell nearly 10 percent (q/q) as exporter of oil and other liquids by the end of companies responded to the unexpected increase 2020, and will export more than Russia by the in OPEC supply at the end of last year, while U.S. end of 2023. production was also disrupted by adverse weather. U.S. oil production is nonetheless expected to rise Price forecasts and risks by 1.6 mb/d in 2019 according to the IEA’s April 2019 Oil Market Report, a slower pace than 2018 Crude oil prices are expected to moderate a little but still robust. Many wells have been drilled but from their current levels and average $66/bbl in uncompleted, which would enable producers to 2019, and $65/bbl in 2020. This is a downward quickly ramp up production. Additional pipeline revision from the previous forecast and reflects capacity is also expected to come onstream weaker-than-expected global growth and a much throughout 2019, further easing transport larger increase in U.S. production than anticipated bottlenecks and raising oil flows. in 2018. The forecast assumes that: oil demand 22 ENERGY COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK | APRIL 2019 growth slows slightly in line with weaker global On the demand side, consumption of oil could be growth this year; U.S. shale production increases weaker than expected, either because of slower robustly in 2019 albeit at a slower pace than 2018, global growth, or greater adoption of before slowing in 2020; and growth in other environmental policies. In addition, new non-OPEC countries rises modestly (Figure 4). regulations implemented by the International Maritime Organization will lead to shifts in Risks to the outlook relate primarily to policy demand for specific oil products and potentially decisions, but are broadly offsetting. The United for different types of crude oil. The regulations States’ decision on April 22 to terminate waivers restrict emissions of sulfur by marine vessels, and to its sanctions on Iran could put upward pressure come into force on January 1, 2020. Operators of on oil prices. However, the impact of this decision marine vessels have three main options to comply remains uncertain, for two reasons. First, it is not with the regulations: clear how quickly countries will comply with the removal of waivers. Second, countries could • Install scrubbers to remove the sulfur from choose to ignore the sanctions—for example, over ships’ exhaust, thereby allowing the continued the past three months some countries have been use of high-sulfur fuels. The sulfur would be importing more oil from Iran than allowed under collected and either discarded into the sea, or the existing waivers. As such, the full impact of the offloaded at ports. sanctions on the oil market could be smaller than if all Iranian oil exports stopped when the waivers • Switch from using high sulfur fuel to a lower expire on May 2. Iran currently exports around sulfur fuel, such as marine gasoil/diesel. 1.4 mb/d of crude oil and condensates, around 1.4 percent of global supply. • Convert vessels to run on alternative fuels, such as liquefied natural gas. It is possible that major oil-producing countries, notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Most ships are expected to switch to using lower Emirates, could increase production to sulfur fuel, which will lead to a surge in demand compensate for any shortfall resulting from the for gasoil/diesel and result in a sharp fall in termination of waivers. OPEC currently has demand for high-sulfur heavy fuel oil (although around 3.5 mb/d of spare capacity, with Saudi some may be used for electricity generation in Arabia accounting for approximately one-half of power plants). However, the magnitude of the this. However, it is unclear how rapidly these impact will depend on the degree of enforcement. countries will be willing to respond to a reduction Ships currently account for about 4 percent of in Iranian exports. Any change in their production global demand for oil (the energy equivalent of 15 will have implications for the future of the percent of global gasoil/diesel consumption). The production agreement between OPEC and its IEA estimates that gasoil/diesel prices could rise 20 partners—the group is due to meet in June to percent in 2020 under a scenario with relatively discuss whether to extend the cuts. limited enforcement of the new regulations, but prices could double if enforcement is strict. Any Other geopolitical risks also remain elevated, increase is expected to be temporary, however, as including conflict-related disruptions in Libya, the market adjusts to the new regulations. In and further deterioration in Venezuela. In addition, the price premium for Brent and WTI addition, legislation under consideration in the over Dubai could rise, given the lower sulfur U.S. congress—the “No Oil Producing and content of these grades of oil. Exporting Cartels Act” or NOPEC—would allow antitrust cases to be brought against countries making it possible to sue OPEC for collectively reducing output. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 ENERGY 23 Natural gas FIGURE 5 Coal and natural gas developments Natural gas prices have been volatile over the past 12 months, and price Natural gas prices have declined sharply since the differentials between the three benchmarks have shrunk on increased supply. Very low levels of inventories in the United States contributed to start of the year, with the wedge between the three temporary price spikes in 2018. Coal prices also fell sharply in the first main spot prices narrowing dramatically (Figure quarter of 2019, on lower natural gas prices and reduced demand from 5). U.S. prices temporarily surged at the end of China and some other countries. 2018, rising more than 50 percent to $4.6/mmbtu in November, before dropping below $3/mmbtu A. Natural gas prices B. U.S. natural gas inventories, deviation from 5-year average at the start of January 2019. The spike in prices was triggered by expectations of a colder-than- average winter, which was exacerbated by low inventories. Spot prices in Europe and Asia, which had risen in the second half of 2018, plunged in March. The fall was triggered by weaker demand due to mild weather and the restarting of nuclear power plants in Japan, as well as greater availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG). C. Coal prices D. Annual growth in coal demand Global exports of LNG have been rising steadily. Exports from the United States rose 50 percent to 3 bcf/d in 2018 and are expected to double to 6.1 bcf/d by the end of 2019. Surging production of natural gas in the U.S. has facilitated an increase in LNG exports, despite a 10 percent jump in U.S. natural gas consumption in 2018. LNG export capacity in Australia and Qatar has also increased substantially and is set to grow further. Source: Bloomberg, BP Statistical Review, EIA, IEA, World Bank. A. Range of quarterly average natural gas prices in Japan, Europe, and the United States, with prices Over the next two years prices are expected to in Japan systematically the highest and those in the United States the lowest. Data for 2019 Q2 show EIA expectations for LNG exports, and average prices for the first week of April 2019. recover from their current lows as demand picks B. Lines show the deviation of inventories relative to their average for each month over the period up but remain below 2018 averages. Further 2013-2017. Last observation is April 12, 2019. C. Last observation is March 2019. ahead, the increase in LNG capacity is set to alter D. 2018 estimated using IEA growth rates. Download data and charts. the composition of natural gas markets, which have historically seen prices linked to oil prices. Reflecting these developments, long-term forecasts been affected by China’s decision to curb imports for natural gas prices have been revised down, of coal from Australia, its biggest supplier. from $8/mmbtu to $7/mmbtu in Europe, and from $10/mmbtu to $8.5/mmbtu in Japan. The Coal prices are expected to partially recover from expansion of long-distance gas trade via LNG their current levels and average $94/mt in 2019, a tankers will cause the price differentials between 12.1 percent decline from 2018, reflecting the different locations to shrink. weakness in natural gas prices, as well as muted demand. The ongoing shift away from coal to Coal natural gas in electricity generation is expected to continue. Risks are skewed to the downside, and Coal prices fell 7.6 percent in the first quarter of include weaker global growth, and environmental 2019 (q/q) following steep declines in the second policies aimed at reducing air pollution, primarily half 2018. In advanced economies demand for in China, as well as other countries such as India, coal declined in favor of natural gas, particularly which accounts for 11 percent of global demand for electricity generation. Seaborne prices have also for coal. 24 AG RI C U L T U RE AND F E RT I L IZ E RS C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 FIGURE 6 Agricultural price developments Grains, oils, and meals Agricultural commodity prices stabilized in 2019 Q1 following declines in 2018. The factors that pushed prices down last year have moderated, Recent developments including easing of trade tensions, lower plantings in the U.S., and stabilization of currencies of key exporters. The World Bank’s Grain Price Index gained nearly A. Agriculture price indexes B. Food price indexes 2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (q/q), and is more than 1 percent higher than a year ago (Figure 6). Production estimates for 2018-19 have been revised upward throughout the season. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest assessment (April 2019), global supplies of the three main grains (wheat, maize, and rice) are projected to reach 3,126 million metric tons (mmt) this season (September 2018 to August 2019), nearly 1 C. Wheat and maize prices D. Soybean and soybean oil prices percent higher than last season’s supplies. Wheat prices, which gained 1 percent in the first quarter, are more than 10 percent higher than a year ago. Global wheat supplies tightened considerably this season, with production projected to be 4 percent lower compared to last season’s record of 763 mmt, according to the USDA. The decline—though less severe than Source: Bloomberg, World Bank. originally estimated—is due to weather-related A.B. Last observation is March 2019. C.D. Last observation is April 19, 2019. yield losses in key Eastern European and Central Download data and charts. Asian producers. Global consumption of wheat is expected to decline marginally from last season, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio—a measure of Agriculture supply availability relative to demand—down by 1 percentage point, but still the second highest ratio Most agricultural commodity prices rose moderately of the past two decades. in the first quarter of 2019, following considerable declines during the second half of last year. The Maize prices rose 3 percent in the first quarter, World Bank’s Agriculture Price Index increased 0.9 following a 3 percent increase in Q4. The global percent in the quarter (q/q), as a 3.4 percent decline maize crop for 2018-19, which has been revised in beverages was balanced by moderate gains in all gradually upward throughout the season, is other categories. The index was still 5.6 percent lower projected to be almost 3 percent higher than than a year ago. Most of the factors that depressed 2017-18, according to the USDA, as lower output prices last year have moderated, including easing of from the United States, the world’s top producer, trade tensions and lower prospective plantings in the will be more than offset by larger-than-expected U.S. for next season’s crop. The index is expected to crops from other key producers, including decline 2.6 percent in 2019 and increase 1.7 percent Argentina, the European Union, and Ukraine. in 2020 due to lower production and higher fertilizer Consumption of maize is projected to increase prices. Downside risks to the forecast emanate more than 3 percent, pushing the stocks-to-use primarily from an escalation of trade tensions. On ratio to 27.4 percent, a 5-year low. Such a low the upside, higher energy prices could lift the cost of stock-to-use ratio would typically be cause for energy-intensive crops, notably grains and oilseeds. alarm, however ample supplies of other grains and Higher-than-projected demand for biofuels could also oilseeds help provide a buffer (Figure 7). induce higher prices for some commodities. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AG RI C U L T U RE AND F E RT I L IZ E RS 25 Rice prices have been remarkably stable during the FIGURE 7 Supply conditions for grains and edible oils past three quarters, fluctuating between $400/mt Despite some weather-related disruptions, supplies of most grains and and $410/mt, after plunging nearly 12 percent edible oils are ample, keeping the stock-to-use ratios at comfortable levels. from May to July last year. Weather-related Early estimates for the next season’s U.S. crop indicate an overall reduction in plantings and a shift from soybeans to maize. disruptions in Brazil and the Philippines have been offset by favorable conditions in most Asian A. Grain supply growth B. Edible oil production growth rice producers, including India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Global rice production is projected to increase marginally in 2018-19 to 501 mmt, a slightly more optimistic outcome than earlier assessments. Global consumption is proj- ected to increase by about 1 percent, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 35 percent, a 20-year high. The World Bank’s Oil and Meals Price Index remained broadly stable in the first quarter of C. Stock-to-use ratios for key grains D. U.S. Planting intentions 2019 (q/q) but stands 14 percent lower than 2018 Q1. Although there was price weakness across the board last year, it was more pronounced in coconut, palm kernel, and palm oils, whose prices plunged by 42, 38, and 17 percent, respectively, from 2018 Q1 to 2019 Q1. Low prices reflect favorable harvests across all regions and, to a lesser extent, Chinese tariffs on soybeans (see October 2018 Commodity Markets Outlook). Source: USDA, World Bank. The edible oil production outlook for the current A.B.C. Years represent crop season (for example, 2018 refers to 2018-19). Data update on April 9, 2019. season (ending September 2019) continues to look D. 2019e refer to estimates from the March 29 USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report. Download data and charts. promising due to favorable growing conditions. Global output of the 17 major edible oils (including palm, soybean, and rapeseed, which together account for two-thirds of global output) demand for animal feed resulting from the spread is forecast to increase 2 percent in the 2018-19 of African swine flu to China in the second half of season. More than two-thirds of the production 2018. The edible oil and oilseed markets have also gains are projected to come from palm oil. been affected by trade frictions. Soybeans were Indonesia and Malaysia are the primary producers particularly impacted by the imposition of a 25 of palm oil, and both are experiencing favorable percent tariff in July 2018 by China on imports weather conditions. Most of the remaining growth from the United States. Because the U.S. and is expected from sunflower oil, due to good China are the largest players in the global soybean growing conditions in Ukraine and Russia, which market—the United States accounts for one-third together account for half of global output. of global production and China accounts for two- thirds of global imports—the tariffs exerted Global oilseed output for 2018-19 is also downward pressure on soybean prices. However, projected to rise, with supplies of the 10 major the medium– and longer-term impact of tariffs on oilseeds projected to reach 578 mmt, up from last soybean prices is expected to be marginal, for three season’s 566 mmt. All of the growth is expected to reasons of which there is already much evidence: come from soybeans, mostly from Argentina and, to a lesser extent, the United States. • Trade diversion: To avoid tariffs applied to U.S. soybeans, importers from China turned Global soybean prices were also depressed by to South American producers, especially upwardly revised production estimates and weaker Brazilian suppliers (Brazil and Argentina 26 AG RI C U L T U RE AND F E RT I L IZ E RS C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 FIGURE 8 Demand conditions for grains and oilseeds 2017-18 to 87.2 mmt during 2018-19. Consumption of grains and edible oils is expected to increase only However, imports of palm oil (a close marginally in 2018-19 due to lower animal feed use growth. Growth in substitute to soybean oil) are projected to biofuel consumption, a key source of food commodity demand, is increase from 5.4 to 6.1 mmt and imports of projected to moderate in the longer term. maize (a close substitute to soybean meal) are expected to increase by 1.3 mmt during the A. Grain consumption B. Edible oil consumption same period. Price forecasts and risks The Grain Price Index is expected to increase marginally in 2019 before edging up more than 1 percent in 2020, as lower plantings are likely to reduce global supplies. Oils and Meals prices are expected to gain 3 percent in 2020, partly offsetting a projected decline of 7 percent in 2019. C. Animal feed consumption growth D. Biofuel production Several risks underpin these forecasts: the direction of energy and fertilizer prices (both of which are key inputs to grains and oilseeds); whether trade frictions are resolved; changes to domestic support policies; strengthening of the U.S. dollar; and currency movements of major exporters of particular commodities. Other risks include adverse weather patterns, including the ongoing (weak) El Niño, and diversion of food Source: IEA, OECD, USDA, World Bank. commodities to biofuels (Figure 8). A.B.C. Years represent crop season (for example, 2018 refers to 2018-19). Data update on April 9, 2019. D. Shaded area (2019-25) represents IEA and OECD projections. Energy is a key input to agricultural production Download data and charts. and affects costs directly (through fuel) and indirectly (through fertilizer and other chemicals). account for 33 and 15 of global soybean Energy prices are expected to decline nearly 8 supplies). Reduced purchases from the United percent in 2019 while fertilizer prices are projected States and increased purchases from South to increase 5 percent. Higher-than-expected prices America initially created a gap between U.S. for energy and fertilizer could exert upward and Brazilian soybean prices of more than 20 pressure on most agricultural commodities, percent in October. However, the price gap especially grains and oilseeds, which are energy disappeared by December. intensive. • Changing crop patterns: Because of reduced Trade policies appeared to have played an soybean exports to China, U.S. farmers were important role in commodity price movements expected to substitute soybean plantings with last year (see Box in the October 2018 Commodity other crops. According to the March 29 Markets Outlook). As noted earlier for the soybean Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA market, trade diversion, changing crop patterns, estimates that U.S. farmers will reduce the and substitution among commodities partly offset area allocated to soybeans by more than 5 the impact of tariffs. However, an escalation of percent and increase the area for maize by 4 trade frictions among other countries and other percent. commodities could distort agricultural markets. • Substitution. China’s soybean imports are On the macroeconomic side, a strengthening of projected to decline from 94.1 mmt during the U.S. dollar could exert downward pressure on C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AG RI C U L T U RE AND F E RT I L IZ E RS 27 commodity prices. Indeed, last year’s weakness in FIGURE 9 Beverage commodity market developments commodity prices was, in part, a reflection of the Following last year’s declines due to ample supplies and currency weak U.S. dollar. Research has shown that a 10 depreciations of key exporters, beverage prices stabilized. percent appreciation of the dollar against major currencies is associated with a 5 percent declined A. Arabica coffee price vis-a-vis B. Cocoa and Robusta prices BRL/USD in prices of internationally-traded commodities (see the Special Focus of the July 2016 Commodity Markets Outlook). Furthermore, currency depreciations of countries that account for a large share of global trade in a commodity market could also affect the price outlook. El Niño weather conditions, which strengthened since February 2019, are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (80 C. Coffee production D. Cocoa production percent probability from April to June) and summer (60 percent probability from June to August). Given the mild nature of El Niño, combined with ample supplies, global agricultural markets are unlikely to be affected in a major way. However, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the ongoing El Niño bears some similarities to the 2015 episode, one of the strongest El Niño patterns in recent Source: Bloomberg, ICO, USDA, World Bank. history. The ongoing El Niño has already been A.B. Last observation is April 19, 2019. linked to tropical cyclone Veronica, which caused C.D. Years represent crop season (for example, 2018 refers to 2018-19). Data update on April 9, 2019. iron ore supply disruptions in Australia. Download data and charts. Finally, the agricultural outlook assumes that biofuel production will continue to be a source of the former reaching an 11-year low. The price demand for some food commodities, especially in drop reflects record global production, which the United States, Brazil, and the European reached 172 million bags, up from last year’s 158 Union. Although output of biofuels has plateaued, million bags, and led to an increase in inventories there are indications that growth may pick up of 10 million bags (Figure 9). The supply glut again. For example, China announced in 2018 reflects large crops in Brazil and Vietnam—the that it will increase the production of maize-based world’s largest Arabica and Robusta suppliers, ethanol. Global biodiesel production growth has respectively—and weaker-than-expected con- also accelerated recently. sumption. Estimates for the ongoing crop year also point to record supplies, especially in the Beverages Robusta market. Arabica and Robusta coffee prices are expected to average $2.85/kg and The World Bank’s Beverage Price Index declined $1.75/kg in 2019 (representing 3 and 6 percent more than 3 percent in 2019 Q1 (q/q), down 7 declines from 2018), followed by a marginal percent from a year ago, with coffee (Arabica and increase in 2020. Robusta) and tea all experiencing significant price drops. The index is projected to decline almost 3 Cocoa prices, which rose 3 percent in the first percent in 2019 before a modest recovery in 2020. quarter, have been relatively stable during the past three quarters. The global cocoa crop experienced Both Arabica and Robusta prices declined sharply no change in 2018/19 as gains by Côte d’Ivoire in the first quarter (down 5 percent each), with and Ghana—which account for two-thirds of 28 AG RI C U L T U RE AND F E RT I L IZ E RS C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 FIGURE 10 Agricultural raw materials market Agricultural raw materials developments Natural rubber prices staged a recovery in response to supply shortfalls of The World Bank’s Raw Materials Price Index key Asian suppliers. Cotton prices remain weak on expected ample gained 2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (q/q) supplies due to larger plantings. in response to a large increase in rubber prices but stood almost 4 percent lower than 2018 Q1. The A. Agricultural raw material prices B. Cotton stocks index is expected to stabilize in 2019 and gain marginally in 2020. Cotton prices declined nearly 5 percent in the first quarter and stand almost 9 percent lower than a year ago. The weakness reflects estimates that production will outpace consumption next season (2019-20), the first time since 2015-16. Production is expected to reach 27.6 mmt in 2019-20, with increases in most major producing C. Natural rubber production D. Natural rubber consumption countries including the United States, China, India, Pakistan, and several West African countries. Consumption, on the other hand, is estimated at 27.3 mmt, suggesting global stocks will increase by almost 2 mmt. Following a projected decline of almost 7 percent in 2019, cotton prices are expected to experience a 1 percent increase in 2020. Source: Bloomberg, ICAC, IRSG, World Bank. A. Last observation is April 19, 2019. Natural rubber prices surged almost 18 percent in B. Years represent crop season (for example, 2018 refers to 2018-19 crop season). the first quarter to reach $1.72/kg in March, after C.D. Last observation is 2018Q4. Download data and charts. plunging to a 30-month low in the third quarter of 2018 (Figure 10). The rebound reflects a global supplies—were balanced by declines slowdown in global natural rubber production in elsewhere, including Brazil, Cameroon, Indonesia, late 2018 and early 2019 due to adverse weather and Nigeria. Cocoa prices are expected to remain conditions and slower tapping. Lower production at current levels in 2019, before gaining 2 percent materialized in most East Asian producers, in 2020. especially Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, which together account for nearly 70 percent of Tea prices, especially Kolkata and Mombasa, global supplies. On the demand side, plunged 23 and 7 percent, respectively, in the first consumption of natural rubber for vehicle tires quarter (q/q), and stand 7 and 25 percent lower (two-thirds of its market) is expected to fall as than a year ago. The Kolkata auction dropped to vehicle sales have been slowing in all main regions, an 11-year low. Large tea crops due to favorable including China, North America, and Europe. weather conditions in East Africa (especially However, fiscal stimulus in China, along with the Kenya) and India have caused the price collapse. reversal of interest rate hikes in many advanced In response, the Indian Tea Board ordered economies is expected to stimulate demand a suspension of tea production in December. Tea somewhat. On net, natural rubber prices are prices (3-auction average) are expected to decline expected to gain almost 9 percent in 2019 and 3 14 percent in 2019, before making marginal gains percent in 2020. in 2010. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AG RI C U L T U RE AND F E RT I L IZ E RS 29 FIGURE 11 Fertilizer market developments Fertilizers Fertilizer prices declined in the first quarter of 2019 on weak seasonal The World Bank’s Fertilizer Price Index fell 5.4 per- Chinese demand, limited use in North America in the fall season, and lower input costs. cent in the first quarter of 2019 (q/q) after three con- secutive quarterly increases. Seasonally weak Chinese A. Fertilizer prices B. Nitrogen fertilizer input costs demand, limited fertilizer application in North America, and declines in input costs contributed to the recent price fall. Fertilizer demand is expected to recover and the price index is forecast to increase by 4.8 percent in 2019, led by potash. Over the medium term, prices are subject to downside risks as adoption of enhanced-efficiency specialty fertilizers (controlled- and slow-release) gain pace, leading to reduced appli- cation of conventional fertilizers. C. Phosphate fertilizer input costs D. China’s net exports of fertilizers Nitrogen (urea) prices fell 11 percent in the first quarter after large gains in the second half of 2018 (Figure 11). The decline reflected weak Chinese seasonal demand, below-average use in North America due to early snow, and lower input costs (natural gas and coal). These factors more than offset strong import demand elsewhere, notably Brazil. On the production side, stringent environ- mental policies have led to plant closures and Source: Bloomberg, General Administration of Customs China, World Bank. sharp reductions in urea exports from China, the A-C. Last observation is March 2019. world’s largest nitrogen fertilizer producer. How- Download data and charts. ever, this has been offset by capacity additions in India, Nigeria, and Russia. In addition, concerns that the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran by the restrictions, have also increased. During the re- United States would curtail Iranian supply did not mainder of 2019, prices are expected to mildly materialize, due to waivers given to China, India, recover from current levels but, on average, remain and Turkey (accounting for more than three- 6 percent lower than in 2018. quarters of Iranian urea exports). Urea prices are projected to remain broadly unchanged in 2019. Potash MOP (muriate of potash, or potassium chlo- ride) prices increased 4.6 percent in the first quar- Phosphate DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices ter, after remaining flat throughout 2018. Global plunged 12 percent in the first quarter, following a potash demand reached a record high in 2018, led slight decline in the preceding quarter, on weak by gains in Brazil (for corn and soybeans), China global demand. Consumption in China, the (fruits and vegetables), and Southeast Asia (palm world’s largest consumer of phosphate fertilizers, oil). Demand is expected to further increase on continues to fall as it moves toward its zero growth corn acreage expansions in the United States and policy on fertilizer use, while Indian demand re- more soybean plantings in Brazil. Record harvests mains lackluster as buyers are holding back pur- in recent years and limited use in the fall season chases until there is more clarity on subsidies fol- should see increased fertilizer application to re- lowing the general elections in May. Cheaper in- plenish lost nutrients. Production growth is ex- put costs (ammonia and sulfur) also pushed prices pected to be modest, as new projects in Canada, lower. Phosphate production has risen in Morocco Russia, and Turkmenistan have fallen short of and Saudi Arabia, while Chinese exports, which market expectations. Potash prices are projected to had been trending down due to environmental rise 11.4 percent in 2019. 30 M E T AL S AN D P RE C IO U S M E T AL S C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 FIGURE 12 Metals and minerals market developments Copper prices rose 1 percent in the first quarter Metal prices rose in the first quarter of 2019 on supply concerns and after a steep plunge in the second half of 2018. improved growth prospects in China because of fiscal stimulus and Since early 2019, prices have been supported by progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China. improving prospects for economic growth, and strong import copper demand in China, which A. Base metal prices and China B. Iron ore price and Vale share price manufacturing PMI accounts for half of global copper consumption (Figure 12). China’s copper imports were encouraged by a ban on scrap imports that was initially imposed in 2017 and subsequently tightened, most recently in December. China’s value added tax cut in April 2019 on manufacturing, transport, and construction is expected to boost investment in copper-intensive infrastructure projects, especially in electricity and railways, and in housing. Since early 2019, copper C. Inventories D. Refining costs prices have also been supported by heavy floods in Chile, production cuts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and protests in Peru. During the remainder of the year, prices are expected to gradually increase but still average 0.6 percent lower than in 2018. Risks to this outlook are to the downside. In particular, the most recent fiscal stimulus package in China could lift copper demand less than earlier packages since it Source: Bloomberg, China National Bureau of Statistics, Haver Analytics, LME, Shanghai Metals prioritized tax cuts over government spending. Market, World Bank, World Bureau of Metal Statistics. A.B.D. Last observation is March 2019. A. PMI (purchasing managers’ index) reading above (below) 50 indicates an expansion (contraction). Nickel prices gained 8.3 percent in the first quarter C. Average daily LME inventories. Last observation is April 19, 2019. after a sharp decline during the last quarter of D. Refining costs refer to smelting fees to turn concentrates into refined metal (treatment charges). Prices shown are spot treatment charges in China. 2018. The price increase since early 2019 was in Download data and charts. large part due to concerns about prospects and operations of the world’s largest nickel producer, Metals and Minerals Vale (13 percent of global nickel supply), following its tailings dam accident in Brazil. The World Bank’s Metals and Minerals Price Index Rapidly growing demand for electric vehicles, increased 1.7 percent in the first quarter of 2019 (q/ despite subsidy cuts by the Chinese government, q). This was a rebound from a decline in the fourth also supported prices. Amid lower nickel quarter of 2018 that followed an even steeper decline inventories, prices are expected to continue in the preceding quarter. The price increase reflected inching higher during the remainder of 2019 but, supply concerns, progress in trade negotiations on average, remain 1.8 percent lower than in between the United States and China, and fiscal 2018. Over the medium to long term, demand for stimulus in China. Metal prices are anticipated to nickel is anticipated to be robust as electric vehicle continue rebounding from their 2018 troughs but production strengthens and battery composition average 1.9 percent lower in 2019. Risks are broadly changes to use more nickel. Risks to nickel prices balanced. Downside risks include a weaker-than- are to the upside, especially if new large-scale expected demand boost from China’s fiscal stimulus battery-grade Indonesian projects are delayed or and a prolonged stall in U.S.-China trade authorities renew export bans. negotiations. Most base metal prices face upside risks from the possibility of tighter-than-expected Alone among base metals, aluminum prices environmental policies and slower-than-expected dropped 5.1 percent in the first quarter as supply easing of commodity-specific supply bottlenecks. concerns receded in early 2019. Sanctions C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 M E T AL S AN D P RE C IO U S M E T AL S 31 imposed on the Russian aluminum producer in China restricting the recycling of lead scrap Rusal in April 2018 were lifted in January 2019. A materials, which accounts for more than two-fifths production embargo on the world’s largest of total refined production, presents an upside risk alumina refinery, Alunorte in Brazil (10 percent of to the forecast. Over the medium term, a shift global alumina supply excluding China), due to toward electric vehicles is likely to depress demand alleged environmental breaches was lifted for lead, which is heavily used in batteries for although the resumption of full production is still internal combustion engine vehicles but not in awaiting federal court approval. Aluminum electric vehicles. production and smelter capacity have expanded in China where environmental curbs were less Tin prices saw the largest increase among base stringent than expected. Aluminum prices are metals in the first quarter, rising 9.9 percent (q/q), projected to fall by 8 percent in 2019 reflecting largely reversing declines in the two preceding lower alumina prices and large aluminum quarters. The price increase reflected raw material overcapacity in China. Risks are tilted to the shortages that caused partial closures at Chinese upside arising from tighter-than-expected smelters after Indonesia tightened export environmental policies in China and a delayed regulations, and mines in Myanmar depleted. Tin resumption of Alunorte’s full production. prices are forecast to gain 5.3 percent in 2019 amid persistent pressures on raw material supplies. Zinc prices increased 3.1 percent in the first Risks are tilted to the upside if the depletion of quarter following gains in the preceding quarter, mines proceeds faster than expected or export accompanied by steep drawdowns in inventories. restrictions are extended. Looking forward, tin is Price increases have largely reflected robust expected to benefit from robust demand from demand from China, which accounts for half of growing technologies like electric vehicles, global consumption, and smelter bottlenecks that renewable energy, and robotics. restricted refined output. Against the backdrop of rapidly growing zinc ore production, smelter Iron ore prices increased sharply by 16.2 percent capacity constraints have driven refining fees (zinc in the first quarter, primarily due to supply concentrate treatment charges) to near record- disruptions in Brazil and Australia. Following the highs. Zinc prices are projected to fall by 1.8 Brumadinho dam rupture, all of Vale’s upstream percent in 2019 on moderating demand and new tailings dams in Brazil have been decommissioned ore production coming onstream from Australia, and operations at several mines have been Canada, and South Africa. This outlook is subject temporarily suspended. In Australia, BHP and Rio to upside risk from the possibility of tighter-than- Tinto’s production were impacted by tropical expected environmental policy in China cyclone Veronica, and ore shipments have been constraining smelter capacity. disrupted due to a fire at the latter’s export terminal. These supply disruptions amount to Lead prices rose 3.6 percent in the first quarter, in about 6 percent of the global iron ore seaborne a partial rebound from declines in the preceding market. The recent Chinese fiscal stimulus is also two quarters. Prices were supported by strong expected to strengthen steel use, and hence, iron import demand from China, which accounts for ore demand, since China accounts for one-half two-fifths of global consumption, amid and three-fifths of global steel and iron ore production cuts in the country as a result of efforts consumption, respectively. Iron ore prices are to reduce emissions. Inventories have also fallen to projected to increase 11.4 percent in 2019. This the lowest level in nearly 10 years. Lead prices are forecast is subject to downside risks, especially projected to gradually increase over the remainder renewed tightening of environmental policies in of 2019 but remain 11.6 percent lower than in China that would restrict steel production. 2018. More stringent environmental regulations 32 M E T AL S AN D P RE C IO U S M E T AL S C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 FIGURE 13 Precious metals market developments jewelry demand. Emerging market central banks, Precious metals prices rose in the first quarter of 2019 due to a pause in particularly China, India, Russia, and Turkey, interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and an increase in gold have increased gold holdings to diversify their asset and silver demand. base, and investors have increased net long positions in gold-backed exchange traded funds. A. Precious metals prices B. Gold prices and interest rates These factors have more than offset soft industrial demand. Demand in the electronics sector has been stable but the use of gold in dental applications continues to fall due to the preference for cheaper porcelain alloys. Gold prices are forecast to be 3.2 higher in 2019 on expectations of robust demand and a prolonged pause in interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Silver prices have moved in line with gold, rising C. Demand for precious metals D. Supply of precious metals 6.9 percent in the first quarter. Silver’s heavy discount to gold has led investors to diversify their portfolios, with Indian investment demand rising. Jewelry demand and silverware fabrication also rose moderately. However, industrial demand for silver, which accounts for more than half of total demand, remains weak. Tariffs on solar imports to the United States led to reduced use of silver in solar panels in 2018, and this trend is expected to Source: Bloomberg, FRED, Silver Institute, World Bank, World Bureau of Metal Statistics, World Gold persist. The use of silver in photovoltaics is Council, World Platinum Investment Council. A.B. Last observation is March 2019. expected to decline as it is one of the most B. The interest rate is the 10-year treasury inflation-indexed security with constant maturity (not expensive components. Silver prices are projected seasonally adjusted). C. For gold, Others = central bank purchases; for silver, Others = silverware; for platinum, to remain broadly unchanged in 2019. Others = automotive demand. Download data and charts. Platinum prices remained unchanged in the first quarter of 2019 after steep declines in the first Precious Metals three quarters of 2018. Jewelry and automotive demand, each accounting for about two-fifths of The World Bank’s Precious Metals Price Index rose platinum demand, continue to trend lower. 6.1 percent in the first quarter (q/q) of 2019 Platinum, used extensively in the catalytic following a slight increase in the preceding quarter. A converters on diesel engine vehicles, has fallen out pause in interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal of favor in Europe due to declining market share Reserve and robust gold and silver demand for diesel vehicles. On the other hand, the price of contributed to the price increase. The price index is palladium, which is used for pollution control in forecast to continue its upward trend, led by gold, gasoline-powered vehicles, has been boosted by and average 2.6 percent higher than in 2018. Upside supply disruptions in South Africa. Despite risks to the forecast include the possibility of an diverging platinum and palladium prices, interest rate cut in the United States. prospects for substitution are limited at present due to technical constraints. In addition, with the Gold prices, after reaching a recent trough in switch to electric vehicles on the horizon there is September 2018, increased 6.1 percent in the first less incentive to invest in platinum-based quarter (Figure 13). Prices have been supported by technology, which may become obsolete. strong demand and a fall in long-term real interest Platinum prices are expected to decline by 4.5 rates. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar against percent in 2019. the renminbi led to a strengthening in Chinese APPENDIX A Historical commodity prices Price forecasts C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX A 35 TABLE A.1 Commodity prices Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Commodity Unit 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 Energy Coal, Australia $/mt * 88.5 107.0 103.0 104.4 117.0 103.6 95.7 98.6 95.4 93.1 Coal, South Africa $/mt 85.1 97.6 93.2 99.4 102.2 95.8 84.8 91.3 84.2 78.8 Crude oil, average $/bbl 52.8 68.3 64.6 71.4 73.0 64.3 60.5 56.6 61.1 63.8 Crude oil, Brent $/bbl * 54.4 71.1 67.0 74.5 75.5 67.4 63.3 59.3 64.1 66.4 Crude oil, Dubai $/bbl * 53.1 69.2 64.0 71.8 74.0 66.8 63.4 59.0 64.3 66.8 Crude oil, WTI $/bbl * 50.9 64.8 62.9 67.9 69.7 58.8 54.9 51.5 55.0 58.2 Natural gas, Index 2010=100 68.9 82.1 75.8 75.9 82.7 93.7 72.6 80.1 69.5 68.3 Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu * 5.72 7.68 6.69 7.29 8.40 8.34 6.15 7.26 6.01 5.18 Natural gas, U.S. $/mmbtu * 2.96 3.16 3.08 2.83 2.92 3.79 2.91 3.08 2.72 2.94 Natural gas, Japan $/mmbtu * 8.61 10.67 9.76 10.26 10.87 11.79 11.87 12.01 11.81 11.81 Non -Energy Agriculture Beverages Cocoa $/kg ** 2.03 2.29 2.19 2.57 2.24 2.18 2.24 2.26 2.26 2.20 Coffee, Arabica $/kg ** 3.32 2.93 3.01 2.97 2.77 2.95 2.80 2.83 2.83 2.73 Coffee, Robusta $/kg ** 2.23 1.87 1.96 1.93 1.78 1.81 1.72 1.72 1.73 1.70 Tea, average $/kg 3.15 2.85 2.98 2.95 2.78 2.69 2.43 2.54 2.38 2.35 Tea, Colombo $/kg ** 4.05 3.61 4.07 3.68 3.33 3.34 3.27 3.23 3.27 3.30 Tea, Kolkata $/kg ** 2.42 2.36 1.95 2.55 2.57 2.37 1.82 2.12 1.72 1.63 Tea, Mombasa $/kg ** 2.97 2.58 2.92 2.61 2.43 2.36 2.19 2.27 2.16 2.13 Food Oils and Meals Coconut oil $/mt ** 1,651 997 1,252 1,030 910 796 721 773 710 679 Fishmeal $/mt 1,367 1,525 1,602 1,529 1,488 1,482 1,478 1,486 1,472 1,476 Groundnuts $/mt 1,487 1,320 1,189 1,444 1,412 1,234 1,309 1,235 1,368 1,325 Groundnut oil $/mt ** 1,461 1,446 1,434 1,450 1,465 1,435 1,373 1,380 1,370 1,370 Palm oil $/mt ** 751 639 706 682 612 555 587 585 603 573 Palmkernel oil $/mt 1,288 927 1,142 936 881 747 705 765 695 655 Soybean meal $/mt ** 350 405 414 447 391 369 353 362 353 345 Soybean oil $/mt ** 850 789 850 805 765 736 757 748 773 750 Soybeans $/mt ** 393 394 412 421 370 374 378 382 381 370 Grains Barley $/mt ** 98 126 127 131 126 119 119 119 119 119 Maize $/mt ** 155 164 164 173 158 163 167 167 170 165 Rice, Thailand 5% $/mt ** 399 421 432 443 403 405 408 410 408 406 Rice, Thailand 25% $/mt 385 408 417 429 392 394 401 402 401 399 Rice, Thailand A1 $/mt 380 401 407 424 391 383 385 387 386 382 Rice, Vietnam 5% $/mt 363 406 395 425 409 395 369 396 368 343 Sorghum $/mt 163 169 182 173 159 160 168 163 170 169 Wheat, US HRW $/mt ** 174 210 192 216 222 209 212 210 219 206 Wheat, US SRW $/mt 178 204 189 205 209 213 212 220 217 198 Other Food Bananas, EU $/kg 0.90 … … … … … … … … … Bananas, U.S. $/kg ** 1.08 … … … … … … … … … Meat, beef $/kg ** 4.39 4.20 4.36 4.31 4.10 4.00 4.33 4.24 4.28 4.48 Meat, chicken $/kg ** 2.12 2.24 2.09 2.58 2.26 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.09 2.07 Meat, sheep $/kg 5.42 5.87 5.87 … … … … … … … Oranges $/kg * 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.83 0.84 0.73 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.65 Shrimp $/kg 13.32 12.24 12.63 12.76 11.93 11.64 11.79 11.79 11.79 11.79 Sugar, EU $/kg * 0.37 0.39 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 Sugar, U.S. $/kg * 0.62 0.56 0.57 0.55 0.56 0.55 0.57 0.56 0.57 0.58 Sugar, World $/kg * 0.35 0.28 0.29 0.27 0.25 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.28 36 AP P E N DIX A C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 TABLE A.1 Commodity prices (continued) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Commodity Unit 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 Raw Materials Timber Logs, Africa $/cum 395 414 430 417 407 399 398 400 397 396 Logs, S.E. Asia $/cum ** 265 270 275 273 267 264 270 273 270 268 Plywood ¢/sheets 487 495 504 501 490 484 496 501 495 491 Sawnwood, Africa $/cum 617 640 667 652 625 616 624 617 623 631 Sawnwood, S.E. Asia $/cum ** 702 728 758 742 710 701 710 702 709 718 Woodpulp $/mt 875 875 875 875 875 875 875 875 875 875 Other Raw Materials Cotton $/kg ** 1.84 2.01 1.99 2.09 2.07 1.91 1.82 1.82 1.79 1.85 Rubber, RSS3 $/kg ** 2.00 1.57 1.73 1.66 1.46 1.40 1.66 1.59 1.65 1.72 Rubber, TSR20 $/kg 1.67 1.37 1.47 1.40 1.33 1.27 1.41 1.36 1.40 1.47 Fertilizers DAP $/mt ** 323 393 369 387 410 407 358 382 357 335 Phosphate rock $/mt ** 90 88 82 88 87 94 101 103 103 99 Potassium chloride $/mt ** 218 216 216 216 216 216 226 216 216 246 TSP $/mt ** 283 347 321 329 359 377 340 355 344 321 Urea, E. Europe $/mt ** 214 249 228 226 260 284 253 260 251 248 Metals and Minerals Aluminum $/mt ** 1,968 2,108 2,154 2,264 2,053 1,963 1,863 1,854 1,863 1,871 Copper $/mt ** 6,170 6,530 6,957 6,881 6,118 6,164 6,226 5,939 6,300 6,439 Iron ore $/dmt ** 71.8 69.8 74.7 65.6 66.7 71.9 83.6 76.2 88.2 86.5 Lead $/mt ** 2,315 2,240 2,518 2,383 2,094 1,966 2,035 1,997 2,063 2,046 Nickel $/mt ** 10,410 13,114 13,284 14,470 13,239 11,463 12,412 11,523 12,685 13,026 Tin $/mt ** 20,061 20,145 21,187 20,937 19,309 19,149 21,038 20,458 21,264 21,393 Zinc $/mt ** 2,891 2,922 3,415 3,112 2,534 2,629 2,709 2,570 2,707 2,851 Precious Metals Gold $/toz *** 1,258 1,269 1,329 1,307 1,213 1,229 1,304 1,292 1,320 1,301 Platinum $/toz *** 948 880 977 905 814 822 823 807 818 843 Silver $/toz *** 17.07 15.71 16.73 16.56 14.99 14.57 15.58 15.62 15.82 15.30 Commodity Price Indexes (2010=100) Energy 68.1 87.0 82.2 89.5 92.6 83.8 77.1 73.8 77.4 80.0 Non-energy 83.8 85.2 87.7 89.1 82.7 81.4 82.1 81.2 82.7 82.5 Agriculture 87.0 86.7 88.6 90.8 84.6 82.8 83.5 83.5 83.9 83.1 Beverages 83.1 79.1 79.9 83.6 76.2 76.6 74.0 75.3 74.3 72.4 Food 90.2 90.4 92.5 95.4 88.1 85.8 86.9 87.0 87.5 86.1 Oils and Meals 87.6 85.0 90.2 91.0 81.3 77.5 77.7 78.5 78.5 76.0 Grains 80.5 88.8 87.4 92.8 87.6 87.2 88.6 88.4 90.0 87.4 Other Food 102.4 99.1 100.2 103.6 97.4 95.3 97.4 96.8 96.9 98.3 Raw Materials 81.2 81.4 83.4 83.3 80.4 78.6 80.2 79.3 80.1 81.2 Timber 85.6 88.3 91.5 89.8 86.4 85.3 86.6 86.2 86.5 87.2 Other Raw Materials 76.3 73.9 74.6 76.2 73.8 71.2 73.2 71.7 73.2 74.7 Fertilizers 74.3 82.5 77.1 78.0 84.6 90.2 85.3 86.8 84.9 84.3 Metals and minerals 78.2 82.5 87.2 86.7 78.4 77.6 79.0 75.8 80.1 81.1 Base Metals **** 84.9 90.6 95.6 96.4 86.0 84.2 84.0 81.3 84.7 86.2 Precious Metals 97.8 97.2 102.1 100.4 92.8 93.4 99.2 98.4 100.4 98.7 Source: See Appendix C. Note: (*) Included in the energy index; (**) Included in the non-energy index; (***) Included in the precious metals index; (****) Metals and Minerals excluding iron ore. Monthly updates posted at www.worldbank.org/commodities. Download data. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX A 37 TABLE A.2 Commodity prices forecasts in nominal U.S. dollars Forecasts Commodity Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2030 Energy Coal, Australia $/mt 66.1 88.5 107.0 94.0 90.0 86.4 83.0 73.5 60.0 Crude oil, avg $/bbl 42.8 52.8 68.3 66.0 65.0 65.5 66.0 67.5 70.0 Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu 4.6 5.7 7.7 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.5 7.0 Natural gas, U.S. $/mmbtu 2.5 3.0 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.4 4.0 Natural gas, Japan $/mmbtu 7.4 8.6 10.7 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 8.0 8.5 Non -Energy Agriculture Beverages Cocoa $/kg 2.89 2.03 2.29 2.30 2.36 2.41 2.47 2.66 3.00 Coffee, Arabica $/kg 3.61 3.32 2.93 2.85 2.90 2.94 2.99 3.14 3.40 Coffee, Robusta $/kg 1.95 2.23 1.87 1.75 1.79 1.82 1.86 1.98 2.20 Tea, average $/kg 2.68 3.15 2.85 2.45 2.51 2.57 2.64 2.83 3.20 Food Oils and Meals Coconut oil $/mt 1,482 1,651 997 720 754 790 828 951 1,200 Groundnut oil $/mt 1,381 1,461 1,446 1,400 1,425 1,450 1,476 1,556 1,700 Palm oil $/mt 736 751 639 600 623 646 670 749 900 Soybean meal $/mt 375 350 405 355 363 371 379 404 450 Soybean oil $/mt 815 850 789 760 779 799 819 883 1,000 Soybeans $/mt 405 393 394 390 401 412 424 461 530 Grains Barley $/mt 104 98 126 125 129 134 138 153 180 Maize $/mt 159 155 164 168 171 175 179 190 210 Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 396 399 421 410 413 415 418 426 440 Wheat, U.S., HRW $/mt 167 174 210 212 214 217 219 227 240 Other Food Bananas, U.S. 1.00 1.08 1.15 1.14 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.12 1.10 Meat, beef $/kg 4.06 4.39 4.20 4.35 4.34 4.32 4.31 4.27 4.20 Meat, chicken $/kg 1.85 2.12 2.24 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.15 2.21 2.30 Oranges $/kg 0.89 0.81 0.79 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.73 0.79 0.90 Shrimp $/kg 11.22 13.32 12.24 12.00 12.17 12.34 12.52 13.05 14.00 Sugar, World $/kg 0.40 0.35 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.33 0.38 Raw Materials Timber Logs, Africa $/cum 387 395 414 400 404 409 413 427 450 Logs, S.E. Asia $/cum 274 265 270 275 279 283 287 299 320 Sawnwood, S.E. Asia $/cum 739 702 728 720 731 742 753 788 850 Other Raw Materials Cotton A $/kg 1.64 1.84 2.01 1.88 1.91 1.93 1.96 2.05 2.20 Rubber, RSS3 $/kg 1.61 2.00 1.57 1.70 1.75 1.81 1.87 2.05 2.40 Tobacco $/mt 4,806 4,679 4,863 4,900 4,862 4,825 4,788 4,678 4,500 Fertilizers DAP $/mt 316 323 393 370 377 383 390 412 450 Phosphate rock $/mt 110 90 88 105 107 108 110 115 125 Potassium chloride $/mt 260 218 216 240 246 253 260 281 320 TSP $/mt 291 283 347 340 343 347 350 361 380 Urea, E. Europe $/mt 194 214 249 250 254 258 263 276 300 Metals and Minerals Aluminum $/mt 1,604 1,968 2,108 1,940 1,970 1,992 2,014 2,082 2,200 Copper $/mt 4,868 6,170 6,530 6,490 6,680 6,711 6,743 6,838 7,000 Iron ore $/dmt 58.4 71.8 69.8 77.7 73.0 72.7 72.4 71.5 70.0 Lead $/mt 1,867 2,315 2,240 1,980 2,000 2,010 2,020 2,049 2,100 Nickel $/mt 9,595 10,410 13,114 12,880 13,700 14,079 14,469 15,704 18,000 Tin $/mt 17,934 20,061 20,145 21,210 21,580 21,718 21,857 22,279 23,000 Zinc $/mt 2,090 2,891 2,922 2,870 2,650 2,635 2,619 2,574 2,500 Precious Metals Gold $/toz 1,249 1,258 1,269 1,310 1,360 1,354 1,348 1,330 1,300 Silver $/toz 17.1 17.1 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.3 17.0 Platinum $/toz 987 948 880 840 850 887 925 1,051 1,300 Source and Note: See Appendix C. Download data. 38 AP P E N DIX A C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 TABLE A.3 Commodity prices forecasts in constant U.S. dollars (2010=100) Forecasts Commodity Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2030 Energy Coal, Australia $/mt 70.3 91.0 105.1 90.5 85.2 80.5 75.9 63.8 47.7 Crude oil, avg $/bbl 45.5 54.3 67.1 63.5 61.5 61.0 60.4 58.6 55.6 Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu 4.9 5.9 7.5 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 Natural gas, U.S. $/mmbtu 2.7 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 Natural gas, Japan $/mmbtu 7.8 8.8 10.5 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 Non -Energy Agriculture Beverages Cocoa $/kg 3.07 2.09 2.25 2.21 2.23 2.25 2.26 2.31 2.38 Coffee, Arabica $/kg 3.84 3.42 2.87 2.74 2.74 2.74 2.74 2.73 2.70 Coffee, Robusta $/kg 2.08 2.29 1.84 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.70 1.72 1.75 Tea, average $/kg 2.86 3.24 2.80 2.36 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.46 2.54 Food Oils and Meals Coconut oil $/mt 1,576 1,697 979 693 714 736 757 826 954 Groundnut oil $/mt 1,468 1,502 1,420 1,348 1,349 1,350 1,350 1,352 1,351 Palm oil $/mt 782 772 627 578 589 601 613 650 715 Soybean meal $/mt 398 360 398 342 343 345 346 351 358 Soybean oil $/mt 867 874 775 732 738 744 749 767 795 Soybeans $/mt 431 404 387 375 380 384 388 400 421 Grains Barley $/mt 111 100 124 120 122 124 126 132 143 Maize $/mt 169 159 161 162 162 163 163 165 167 Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 421 410 413 395 391 387 382 370 350 Wheat, U.S., HRW $/mt 177 179 206 204 203 202 201 197 191 Other Food Bananas, U.S. $/kg 1.06 1.11 1.13 1.10 1.08 1.05 1.03 0.97 0.87 Meat, beef $/kg 4.32 4.51 4.12 4.19 4.10 4.02 3.94 3.71 3.34 Meat, chicken $/kg 1.97 2.18 2.20 2.02 2.00 1.99 1.97 1.92 1.83 Oranges $/kg 0.95 0.83 0.78 0.64 0.65 0.66 0.66 0.68 0.72 Shrimp $/kg 11.93 13.69 12.01 11.55 11.52 11.49 11.45 11.34 11.13 Sugar, World $/kg 0.42 0.36 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.30 Raw Materials Timber Logs, Africa $/cum 412 406 406 385 383 380 378 370 358 Logs, S.E. Asia $/cum 292 273 265 265 264 263 262 259 254 Sawnwood, S.E. Asia $/cum 786 722 715 693 692 691 689 685 676 Other Raw Materials Cotton A $/kg 1.74 1.89 1.98 1.81 1.81 1.80 1.80 1.78 1.75 Rubber, RSS3 $/kg 1.71 2.05 1.54 1.64 1.66 1.69 1.71 1.78 1.91 Tobacco $/mt 5,111 4,810 4,774 4,717 4,602 4,492 4,380 4,062 3,577 Fertilizers DAP $/mt 336 332 386 356 357 357 357 358 358 Phosphate rock $/mt 117 92 86 101 101 101 101 100 99 Potassium chloride $/mt 277 224 212 231 233 235 237 244 254 TSP $/mt 310 291 340 327 325 323 321 314 302 Urea, E. Europe $/mt 206 220 245 241 241 241 240 240 238 Metals and Minerals Aluminum $/mt 1,706 2,023 2,070 1,868 1,865 1,854 1,843 1,808 1,749 Copper $/mt 5,177 6,342 6,411 6,248 6,323 6,248 6,169 5,939 5,565 Iron ore $/dmt 62.1 73.8 68.5 74.8 69.1 67.7 66.2 62.1 55.6 Lead $/mt 1,985 2,379 2,200 1,906 1,893 1,871 1,848 1,780 1,669 Nickel $/mt 10,204 10,700 12,875 12,399 12,968 13,107 13,237 13,638 14,309 Tin $/mt 19,072 20,621 19,778 20,418 20,427 20,219 19,996 19,348 18,283 Zinc $/mt 2,223 2,972 2,869 2,763 2,508 2,453 2,396 2,235 1,987 Precious Metals Gold $/toz 1,328 1,293 1,246 1,261 1,287 1,260 1,233 1,155 1,033 Silver $/toz 18.2 17.5 15.4 15.1 14.8 14.6 14.5 14.1 13.5 Platinum $/toz 1,050 975 863 809 805 826 847 913 1,033 Source and Note: See Appendix C. Download data. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX A 39 TABLE A.4 Commodity price index forecasts (2010=100) Forecasts Commodity Unit 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2025 2030 Nominal US dollars (2010=100) Energy 55.1 68.1 87.0 82.3 81.2 81.7 82.3 84.0 87.2 Non-energy 79.4 83.8 85.2 83.4 84.6 85.7 86.9 90.6 97.4 Agriculture 87.5 87.0 86.7 84.4 85.9 87.3 88.8 93.4 102.0 Beverages 91.3 83.1 79.1 75.5 77.1 78.7 80.4 85.7 95.3 Food 89.6 90.2 90.4 87.5 89.1 90.6 92.2 97.2 106.6 Oils and Meals 88.3 87.6 85.0 79.0 81.2 83.5 85.9 93.5 107.7 Grains 80.7 80.5 88.8 89.1 90.4 91.7 93.0 97.2 104.6 Other food 99.5 102.4 99.1 97.4 98.2 98.9 99.7 102.2 106.9 Raw materials 80.2 81.2 81.4 81.5 82.5 83.6 84.7 88.1 94.3 Timber 89.6 85.6 88.3 88.0 89.3 90.6 91.9 96.1 103.5 Other Raw Materials 70.0 76.3 73.9 74.4 75.2 75.9 76.7 79.3 84.2 Fertilizers 77.8 74.3 82.5 86.4 87.9 89.3 90.8 95.5 103.9 Metals and minerals * 63.0 78.2 82.5 81.0 81.6 82.2 82.7 84.3 87.3 Base Metals ** 68.3 84.9 90.6 87.4 89.0 89.7 90.4 92.6 96.4 Precious Metals 97.5 97.8 97.2 99.7 102.8 102.6 102.4 101.9 101.2 Constant 2010 U.S. dollars (2010=100), deflated by the MUV Index Energy 58.5 70.0 85.4 79.2 76.9 76.1 75.3 72.9 69.3 Non-energy 84.4 86.1 83.7 80.3 80.1 79.8 79.5 78.7 77.4 Agriculture 93.0 89.4 85.1 81.3 81.3 81.3 81.2 81.1 81.1 Beverages 97.1 85.4 77.6 72.6 72.9 73.3 73.6 74.4 75.8 Food 95.3 92.7 88.8 84.3 84.3 84.4 84.4 84.5 84.7 Oils and Meals 93.9 90.0 83.5 76.0 76.9 77.8 78.6 81.2 85.6 Grains 85.8 82.8 87.1 85.8 85.6 85.4 85.1 84.4 83.2 Other food 105.8 105.3 97.3 93.8 92.9 92.1 91.2 88.8 85.0 Raw materials 85.3 83.4 79.9 78.5 78.1 77.8 77.5 76.5 74.9 Timber 95.3 87.9 86.7 84.7 84.5 84.3 84.1 83.5 82.3 Other Raw Materials 74.4 78.5 72.6 71.7 71.2 70.7 70.2 68.8 66.9 Fertilizers 82.7 76.3 81.0 83.2 83.2 83.2 83.1 83.0 82.6 Metals and minerals * 67.0 80.4 81.0 77.9 77.3 76.5 75.7 73.2 69.4 Base Metals ** 72.6 87.3 88.9 84.1 84.2 83.5 82.7 80.4 76.6 Precious Metals 103.6 100.6 95.4 95.9 97.3 95.5 93.7 88.5 80.4 Inflation indexes, 2010=100 MUV index *** 94.0 97.3 101.9 103.9 105.6 107.4 109.3 115.1 125.8 % change per annum (3.9) 3.5 4.7 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 U.S. GDP deflator 110.1 111.8 114.2 116.0 118.1 120.5 122.9 130.4 144.0 % change per annum 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Source: See Appendix C. Note: (*) Base metals plus iron ore; (**) Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc; (***) MUV is the unit value index of manufacture exports. For other notes see Appendix C. Download data. APPENDIX B Supply-Demand balances Aluminum ..............................................43 Natural gas .............................................58 Bananas ..................................................44 Natural rubber ........................................59 Coal .......................................................45 Nickel .....................................................60 Cocoa .....................................................46 Palm oil and Soybean oil .........................61 Coconut oil and Palm kernel oil ..............47 Platinum.................................................62 Coffee.....................................................48 Rice ........................................................63 Copper ...................................................49 Silver ......................................................64 Cotton ....................................................50 Soybeans .................................................65 Crude oil ................................................51 Sugar ......................................................66 Fertilizers—Nitrogen ..............................52 Tea .........................................................67 Fertilizers—Phosphate and Potash ...........53 Timber—Roundwood and Sawnwood .....68 Gold .......................................................54 Timber—Wood panels and Woodpulp ....69 Iron Ore .................................................55 Tin .........................................................70 Lead .......................................................56 Wheat.....................................................71 Maize .....................................................57 Zinc .......................................................72 C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 43 Aluminum Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 (thousand metric tons) Bauxite Production Australia 9,256 27,179 41,391 53,802 68,584 80,910 83,517 89,421 96,144 China 500 1,700 3,655 7,900 36,837 60,788 66,158 65,000 69,017 Guinea 2,600 13,911 16,150 17,992 17,500 20,692 26,917 45,000 55,314 Brazil 510 4,632 9,749 13,974 32,028 37,064 37,700 38,123 38,122 India 1,370 1,785 4,853 7,993 12,723 28,124 24,745 22,313 24,638 Jamaica 12,010 11,978 10,965 11,127 8,540 9,629 8,540 8,245 9,963 Kazakhstan 989 n/a n/a 3,730 5,310 4,683 4,801 4,843 6,104 Russia n/a n/a n/a 5,089 5,035 5,398 5,432 5,523 5,887 Saudi Arabia 5 n/a n/a n/a 236 2,174 3,843 3,708 3,843 Indonesia 1,223 1,249 1,164 1,151 27,410 472 700 1,294 3,037 Sierra Leone 449 674 1,445 n/a 1,089 1,334 1,369 1,788 2,004 Greece 2,292 3,259 2,511 1,819 1,902 1,831 1,880 1,927 1,930 Guyana 3,211 3,052 1,424 2,689 1,083 1,526 1,479 1,459 1,926 Others n/a n/a 11,948 8,418 38,292 14,259 15,119 8,638 World 57,280 93,268 115,099 139,213 226,695 292,915 281,340 303,761 326,567 Refined Production China 127 350 854 2,989 16,244 31,518 32,698 32,273 33,586 Russia n/a n/a n/a 3,247 3,947 3,529 3,561 3,584 3,669 Canada 963 1,068 1,567 2,373 2,963 2,880 3,209 3,212 2,923 United Arab Emirates n/a 35 174 536 1,400 2,397 2,471 2,500 2,393 India 161 185 433 624 1,621 2,355 2,897 3,401 2,175 Australia 206 303 1,234 1,769 1,928 1,646 1,635 1,487 1,575 Norway 530 653 867 1,031 1,090 1,224 1,247 1,253 1,275 Bahrain n/a 126 213 509 851 961 971 981 1,011 Saudi Arabia 5 n/a n/a n/a 0 839 871 916 932 United States 3,607 4,654 4,048 3,668 1,726 1,587 818 741 897 Iceland 39 73 87 226 826 800 855 870 865 Malaysia 1 n/a n/a n/a 60 440 620 760 760 South Africa n/a 86 158 673 807 695 701 716 714 Others n/a n/a 6,986 7,992 6,995 7,071 6,900 6,911 World 9645 16,099 19,275 24,632 41,454 57,865 59,625 59,594 59,686 Refined Production China 225 550 861 3,352 15,854 31,068 32,563 31,908 33,304 United States 3,488 4,454 4,330 6,161 4,242 5,325 5,121 5,615 4,616 Germany 825 1,272 1,379 1,632 1,912 2,163 2,197 2,160 2,136 Japan 911 1,639 2,414 2,223 2,025 1,779 1,742 1,950 1,979 Korea, Rep. 15 68 369 823 1,255 1,366 1,453 1,420 1,151 India 162 234 433 601 1,475 1,521 1,378 1,220 991 Turkey 14 45 152 211 703 952 949 961 954 Italy 279 23 0 780 857 801 909 924 951 Brazil 84 296 341 514 985 801 764 868 871 Others 4,024 6,731 8,947 8,708 11,255 11,689 11,909 12,242 12,856 World 10,027 15,312 19,227 25,004 40,563 57,465 58,984 59,267 59,808 Source: British Geological Survey, Metallgesellschaft, U.S. Geological Survey, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, World Bank. Note: n/a implies data not available. 44 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Bananas Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is December 2017. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 (thousand metric tonnes) Exports Ecuador 1,246 1,291 2,157 3,940 5,010 5,716 6,040 5,974 6,415 Costa Rica 856 973 1,434 1,883 1,828 2,169 1,964 2,365 2,649 Guatemala 200 371 360 801 1,371 2,064 2,153 2,146 2,366 Colombia 262 692 1,148 1,680 1,803 1,786 1,674 1,842 1,885 Philippines 107 923 840 1,599 1,589 3,680 1,852 1,397 1,663 Honduras 799 973 781 375 512 636 690 659 649 Mexico 1 16 154 46 174 386 417 448 561 Côte d'Ivoire 140 122 94 217 336 335 305 364 366 Cameroon 50 65 78 238 233 265 283 250 234 Panama 600 504 745 489 295 256 268 267 209 Peru 0 0 0 1 89 160 191 202 203 Nicaragua n/a n/a n/a 46 52 65 77 109 137 Dominican Republic 4 10 11 80 408 377 138 383 125 Bolivia 0 0 0 9 88 124 133 128 115 India 7 0 0 9 61 55 80 112 94 Belize 0 15 24 66 82 103 99 71 75 Suriname 25 34 28 35 79 75 85 67 70 Pakistan 1 12 0 2 58 43 54 50 48 Brazil 204 67 53 72 140 84 80 64 41 Others 1,016 705 1,121 333 1,354 178 110 169 163 World 5,519 6,772 9,030 11,922 15,560 18,557 16,691 17,067 18,068 Imports United States 1,846 2,423 3,099 3,630 3,858 4,036 4,082 4,041 4,238 Russian Federation n/a n/a n/a 500 1,054 1,275 1,227 1,356 1,544 China 29 21 48 642 724 1,188 1,139 955 1,113 Japan 844 726 758 1,079 1,110 97 960 956 986 Canada 199 246 341 398 496 555 562 540 579 Argentina 164 195 73 340 351 411 427 433 488 Korea, Rep. 3 15 22 184 338 359 364 365 437 Ukraine n/a n/a n/a 60 215 215 146 192 238 Chile n/a n/a n/a 193 176 175 199 206 224 Saudi Arabia 22 135 129 187 278 204 230 191 211 Turkey 0 0 62 124 161 207 219 209 208 United Arab Emirates 0 23 30 69 120 121 144 161 160 South Africa 13 0 7 26 37 8 24 98 115 Algeria 11 n/a n/a 0 188 263 246 197 96 Switzerland 59 64 76 72 80 84 87 90 92 New Zealand 24 37 49 68 81 66 77 96 88 Norway 33 31 49 60 79 85 85 84 86 Belarus n/a n/a n/a 31 45 66 72 64 74 Kuwait 10 25 15 23 91 64 132 120 72 El Salvador 11 50 44 59 49 57 61 65 66 Tunisia 3 9 0 16 19 36 60 65 55 Others 2,313 2,680 4,080 4,391 5,922 6,924 5,870 5,877 6,266 World 5,584 6,680 8,881 12,151 15,470 16,496 16,411 16,361 17,436 Source: FAO. Note: Data include re-exports. Data for 1970, 1980, and 1990 are from the Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits (March 8, 2018 update) while data for 2000 onwards are from Banana Market Review (2017). Due to different methodologies, pre- and post-2000 data may not be directly comparable. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 45 Coal Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1981 1990 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 (million metric tonnes oil equivalent) Production China 311 540 707 1,242 1,665 1,864 1,826 1,691 1,747 United States 440 538 542 551 524 482 427 348 371 Australia 68 115 172 215 251 306 306 308 297 India 64 106 152 190 252 270 281 285 294 Indonesia 0 6 45 90 162 270 272 269 272 Russian Federation n/a 186 122 136 151 177 186 194 206 South Africa 75 100 127 138 144 148 143 142 143 Colombia 3 14 26 41 51 61 59 62 61 Poland 103 100 72 69 55 54 53 52 50 Kazakhstan n/a 57 32 37 48 49 46 44 48 Germany 149 125 61 57 46 44 43 40 40 Canada 23 40 39 35 35 36 32 32 31 Mongolia 2 3 2 4 15 15 14 22 30 Vietnam 3 3 7 19 25 23 23 22 21 Turkey 7 12 13 11 18 16 13 16 21 Czech Republic 43 36 25 24 21 17 17 16 15 Ukraine n/a 76 36 35 32 26 16 17 14 Serbia n/a n/a n/a n/a 7 6 7 7 8 Bulgaria 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 Mexico 2 3 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 Romania 9 8 6 6 6 4 5 4 5 Greece 4 7 8 9 7 6 6 4 5 Thailand 1 4 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 Others n/a 168 93 86 69 75 70 73 74 World 1,843 2,251 2,301 3,011 3,602 3,966 3,862 3,664 3,769 Consumption China 303 528 706 1,325 1,749 1,955 1,914 1,889 1,893 India 64 110 164 211 290 388 395 406 424 United States 381 459 541 546 499 431 372 341 332 Japan 65 78 96 114 116 119 119 119 121 Russian Federation n/a 182 106 95 91 88 92 89 92 Korea, Rep. 15 24 43 55 76 85 86 82 86 South Africa 51 67 75 80 93 90 83 85 82 Germany 144 132 85 81 77 80 79 76 71 Indonesia 0 3 13 24 40 45 51 53 57 Poland 91 78 56 55 55 49 49 50 49 Turkey 7 16 23 22 31 36 35 39 45 Australia 29 38 48 52 49 43 44 44 42 Taiwan, China 4 11 28 35 38 39 38 39 39 Kazakhstan n/a 39 18 27 33 37 34 34 36 Vietnam 3 2 5 9 15 21 26 28 28 Others n/a 455 351 375 355 359 349 335 334 World 1,819 2,222 2,356 3,106 3,606 3,862 3,765 3,706 3,732 Source: BP Statistical Review (June 2018 update). Note: n/a implies data not available. Commercial solid fuels only, i.e. bituminous coal and anthracite (hard coal), and lignite and brown (sub-bituminous) coal, and other commercial solid fuels. 46 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Cocoa Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (thousand metric tons) Production Côte d'Ivoire 180 417 804 1,212 1,511 1,581 2,020 1,964 2,150 Ghana 406 258 293 395 1,025 778 970 905 900 Ecuador 72 87 111 89 161 232 290 285 298 Cameroon 112 117 115 133 229 211 248 250 250 Nigeria 305 156 160 180 240 200 245 255 245 Indonesia 2 12 150 385 440 320 270 240 220 Brazil 182 353 368 163 200 141 174 204 195 Peru 2 7 11 17 54 105 116 134 120 Dominican Republic 35 35 42 45 54 80 57 70 70 Others 233 252 452 233 396 350 350 342 351 World 1,528 1,694 2,507 2,852 4,309 3,997 4,739 4,649 4,799 Grindings Netherlands 116 140 268 452 540 534 565 595 600 Côte d'Ivoire 35 60 118 285 361 492 577 559 580 Indonesia 1 10 32 83 190 382 455 483 490 Germany 151 180 294 227 439 430 410 448 455 United States 279 186 268 445 401 398 390 385 392 Ghana 48 27 30 70 212 202 250 311 300 Brazil 67 191 260 195 239 225 227 230 234 Others 735 773 1,055 1,285 1,557 1,465 1,719 1,582 1,661 World 1,431 1,566 2,325 3,041 3,938 4,127 4,594 4,594 4,712 Exports Côte d'Ivoire 138 406 688 903 1,079 1,089 1,419 1,549 1,400 Ghana 348 182 245 307 694 582 577 573 662 Ecuador 46 19 56 57 136 207 283 282 250 Nigeria 216 76 142 149 219 180 305 282 197 Cameroon 75 96 96 102 204 176 188 161 190 Malaysia 3 40 148 17 21 87 136 145 161 Dominican Republic 29 27 36 34 52 77 57 56 79 Others 265 255 326 417 590 323 301 286 257 World 1,119 1,100 1,737 1,987 2,996 2,720 3,265 3,334 3,197 Imports Netherlands 116 167 267 549 806 795 906 820 622 Germany 155 187 300 228 434 407 447 448 431 Malaysia 1 n/a 1 110 320 229 289 312 371 United States 269 246 320 355 472 387 537 470 366 Belgium 18 28 50 101 194 297 302 320 257 France 42 59 74 157 149 139 147 142 167 Italy 41 32 56 72 86 94 100 100 108 Turkey 1 2 6 39 71 86 103 103 88 Spain 34 37 45 49 88 113 127 124 86 Others 462 440 643 749 737 648 893 972 1,088 World 1,139 1,198 1,761 2,409 3,357 3,196 3,851 3,812 3,586 Source: Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics (Cocoa year 2018/19 Volume XLV No. 1 update). Note: n/a implies data not available. 1970/71 data are average of 1968-1972. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 47 Coconut oil and Palm kernel oil Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11 2013/14 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (thousand metric tons) Coconut oil production Philippines 1,159 1,448 1,207 1,240 1,153 1,099 953 1,035 1,171 Indonesia 677 833 825 847 933 937 691 845 863 India 228 292 442 398 390 377 270 302 345 Mexico 99 126 126 131 127 127 129 130 132 Sri Lanka n/a n/a n/a 32 45 49 58 57 59 Malaysia 64 32 38 49 51 51 45 43 47 Vietnam n/a n/a n/a 34 34 34 33 34 35 Others 596 628 606 363 323 310 297 311 317 World 2,823 3,359 3,244 3,094 3,056 2,984 2,476 2,757 2,969 Coconut oil production European Union 498 632 734 739 646 536 475 567 626 United States 373 400 585 474 518 531 439 433 457 India 233 301 448 411 392 389 262 296 347 Indonesia 639 600 200 153 377 160 181 195 211 China 27 32 43 216 142 137 133 139 147 Philippines 195 318 297 336 364 238 119 148 174 Mexico 115 139 139 153 129 130 138 134 137 Malaysia 4 4 32 90 49 90 74 79 92 Japan 78 67 45 42 53 54 42 41 42 Others 497 692 670 629 454 639 591 642 668 World 2,659 3,185 3,193 3,243 3,124 2,904 2,454 2,674 2,901 Palmkernel oil production Indonesia 36 229 709 2,534 3,264 3,538 3,817 4,140 4,409 Malaysia 250 827 1,289 2,072 2,332 2,280 2,149 2,312 2,366 Thailand n/a n/a n/a 140 176 184 207 271 258 Colombia n/a n/a n/a 80 95 107 127 133 138 Nigeria 82 146 190 108 109 114 118 124 130 Papua New Guinea n/a n/a n/a 43 57 58 70 75 78 Ecuador n/a n/a n/a 35 37 40 49 48 48 Others 195 261 349 379 453 466 475 496 535 World 563 1,463 2,537 5,391 6,523 6,787 7,012 7,599 7,962 Palmkernel oil consumption Indonesia 29 66 113 851 1,518 1,670 1,920 2,186 1,920 Malaysia 4 117 686 1,420 1,414 1,504 1,467 1,498 1,542 European Union 238 417 500 537 674 675 777 739 770 China 1 12 31 421 495 578 595 702 751 United States 69 149 224 279 266 274 346 371 369 Brazil 2 10 55 201 249 241 227 254 266 India 1 7 13 198 265 245 124 150 157 Nigeria 24 146 175 107 105 113 111 114 119 Japan 15 39 64 69 78 87 77 76 83 Others 132 426 644 1,145 1,328 1,341 1,249 1,267 1,836 World 515 1,389 2,505 5,228 6,392 6,728 6,893 7,357 7,813 Source: Oil World (March 22, 2019 update), World Bank. Note: All quantities are for the crop year (beginning October 1). For example, 2001/02 refers to October 2001 to September 2002. European Union includes EU-15 for 1980/81, 1990/91, 2000/01 and EU-28 for 2010-2017. 48 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Coffee Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (thousand 60kg bags) Production Brazil 11,000 21,500 31,000 34,100 54,500 49,400 56,100 50,900 63,400 Vietnam 56 77 1,200 15,333 19,415 28,930 26,700 29,300 30,400 Colombia 8,000 13,500 14,500 10,500 8,525 14,000 14,600 13,825 14,300 Indonesia 2,330 5,365 7,480 6,495 9,325 12,100 10,600 10,400 10,900 Honduras 545 1,265 1,685 2,821 3,975 5,300 7,510 7,600 7,600 Ethiopia 2,589 3,264 3,500 2,768 6,125 6,510 6,943 7,055 7,100 India 1,914 1,977 2,970 5,020 5,035 5,800 5,200 5,266 5,200 Uganda 2,667 2,133 2,700 3,097 3,212 3,650 5,200 4,350 4,800 Mexico 3,200 3,862 4,550 4,800 4,000 2,300 3,300 4,075 4,500 Peru 1,114 1,170 1,170 2,824 4,100 3,500 4,225 4,375 4,400 Guatemala 1,965 2,702 3,282 4,564 3,960 3,295 3,570 3,780 3,890 Nicaragua 641 971 460 1,610 1,740 2,125 2,625 2,725 2,525 Malaysia 66 88 75 700 1,100 2,200 2,100 2,100 2,100 China n/a n/a n/a n/a 827 1,900 1,900 2,000 2,000 Cote d'Ivoire 3,996 6,090 3,300 5,100 1,600 1,600 1,090 1,250 1,400 Costa Rica 1,295 2,140 2,565 2,502 1,575 1,625 1,300 1,500 1,350 Tanzania 909 1,060 763 809 1,050 1,100 1,050 1,150 1,300 Papua New Guinea 401 880 964 1,041 865 750 1,115 810 800 Kenya 999 1,568 1,455 864 710 750 815 715 750 Others 15,515 16,562 16,562 12,269 9,770 6,104 5,871 5,706 5,778 World 59,202 86,174 100,181 117,217 141,409 152,939 161,814 158,882 174,493 Consumption European Union n/a n/a n/a n/a 41,350 44,495 42,345 45,725 46,100 United States 305 297 229 183 22,383 25,083 25,522 25,835 26,509 Brazil 8,890 7,975 9,000 13,100 19,420 20,855 21,625 22,420 23,200 Japan n/a n/a n/a n/a 7,015 8,060 8,210 8,253 8,252 Philippines 496 432 810 900 2,825 6,210 6,995 6,510 5,625 Russia n/a n/a n/a n/a 4,355 4,395 4,740 4,485 4,950 Canada n/a n/a n/a n/a 4,245 4,545 4,550 4,750 4,700 China n/a n/a n/a n/a 1,106 2,833 3,655 3,825 4,200 Indonesia 888 1,228 1,295 1,335 1,650 3,175 3,203 3,560 3,900 Ethiopia 1,170 1,600 1,900 1,667 2,860 3,110 3,100 3,110 3,120 Vietnam 31 35 100 417 1,337 2,630 2,770 2,880 2,990 Korea, Rep. n/a n/a n/a n/a 1,910 2,465 2,725 2,735 2,750 Mexico 1,512 1,500 1,400 978 2,620 2,325 2,057 2,280 2,750 Algeria n/a n/a n/a n/a 1,815 2,320 2,205 2,300 2,340 Australia n/a n/a n/a n/a 1,445 1,785 1,730 1,875 1,900 Switzerland n/a n/a n/a n/a 1,570 1,420 1,450 1,525 1,700 Colombia 1,349 1,825 1,615 1,530 1,120 1,415 1,450 1,500 1,600 India 665 887 1,224 959 1,231 1,250 1,200 1,215 1,250 Venezuela 638 1,090 850 735 1,305 1,151 1,133 1,217 1,214 Others n/a n/a n/a n/a 12,933 13,206 13,629 14,274 14,539 World 19,408 20,438 22,265 26,303 134,495 152,728 154,294 160,274 163,589 Source: USDA (April 9, 2019 update). Note: n/a implies data not available. European Union includes EU-15 for 1980/81, 1990/91, 2000/01 and EU-28 for 2010-2018. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 49 Copper Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 (thousand metric tons) Mine Production Chile 686 1,068 1,588 4,602 5,419 5,772 5,553 5,504 5,831 Peru 220 367 323 554 1,247 1,701 2,354 2,446 2,437 China n/a 165 300 593 1,156 1,712 1,900 1,706 1,507 Congo, Dem. Rep. 386 n/a n/a 33 378 1,039 1,024 1,095 1,222 United States 1,560 1,181 1,588 1,444 1,110 1,416 1,462 1,290 1,208 Zambia 684 610 546 249 767 711 763 900 998 Australia 158 244 330 832 872 996 948 860 980 Kazakhstan n/a n/a n/a 430 381 550 600 750 800 Indonesia 0 59 162 1,012 864 579 728 622 746 Russia n/a n/a n/a 530 703 711 702 705 744 Mexico 61 175 299 365 270 594 766 742 735 Canada 610 716 794 634 522 715 693 595 543 Poland 83 343 370 454 426 426 424 420 402 Others 1,755 2,811 3,027 1,475 1,988 2,435 2,742 2,567 2,615 World 6,202 7,739 9,327 13,206 16,102 19,357 20,658 20,201 20,768 Refined Production China 120 295 558 1,371 4,540 7,969 8,436 8,889 8,949 Chile 647 811 1,192 2,668 3,244 2,688 2,613 2,430 2,461 Japan 603 1,014 1,008 1,437 1,549 1,483 1,553 1,488 1,595 United States 1,489 1,730 2,017 1,802 1,095 1,140 1,220 1,080 1,107 Russia n/a n/a n/a 842 900 876 867 949 949 Congo, Dem. Rep. 683 n/a n/a 29 259 793 737 718 824 Germany 134 425 532 709 704 678 671 694 678 South Korea 5 88 192 471 565 645 645 663 569 India 9 23 46 260 664 790 788 831 555 Zambia 683 608 426 226 767 496 426 466 529 Poland 69 357 346 486 547 574 536 522 502 Kazakhstan n/a n/a n/a 395 323 395 408 426 443 Spain 55 154 171 316 348 420 429 415 432 Others 2,231 3,970 4,186 3,761 3,593 4,022 4,063 4,024 4,180 World 6,729 9,475 10,675 14,774 19,096 22,969 23,393 23,594 23,772 Refined Consumption China 180 286 512 1,869 7,385 11,353 11,642 11,790 12,482 United States 1860.2 1,868 2,150 2,979 1,760 1,796 1,811 1,771 1,825 Germany 787.5 870 1,028 1,309 1,312 1,219 1,243 1,180 1,208 Japan 820.6 1,158 1,577 1,351 1,060 997 973 998 1,039 Korea, Rep. 9.8 85 324 862 856 705 759 656 621 Italy 274 388 475 674 619 613 596 635 552 India 55 77 135 246 514 491 499 486 512 Turkey 14.1 33 103 248 369 468 464 445 451 Mexico 54 117 127 464 274 393 423 372 399 Others 3,236 4,502 4,349 5,094 5,197 4,857 4,789 4,947 4,730 World 7291.3 9,385 10,780 15,096 19,347 22,893 23,200 23,280 23,820 Source: British Geological Survey, Metallgesellschaft, U.S. Geological Survey, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, World Bank. Note: n/a implies data not available. Refined production and consumption include significant recycled material. 50 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Cotton Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 (thousand metric tons) Production India 909 1,322 1,989 2,380 5,865 5,865 6,350 6,408 6,192 China 1,995 2,707 4,508 4,505 6,400 4,900 5,890 5,720 5,655 United States 2,219 2,422 3,376 3,742 3,942 3,738 4,555 4,028 4,899 Brazil 594 623 717 939 1,960 1,530 1,965 2,024 2,565 Pakistan 543 714 1,638 1,816 1,948 1,663 1,795 2,005 1,842 Turkey 400 500 655 880 594 703 840 852 1,018 Australia 19 99 433 804 898 960 1,044 636 710 Uzbekistan n/a 1,671 1,593 975 910 789 800 800 641 Mexico 312 353 175 72 157 207 335 320 395 Benin n/a n/a 253 140 85 151 257 305 325 Mali n/a n/a 505 130 109 261 196 275 315 Others n/a n/a 3,110 3,142 2,541 2,327 2,839 2,516 3,005 World 11,740 13,831 18,951 19,524 25,408 23,094 26,866 25,889 27,561 Stocks China 412 476 1,589 3,755 2,087 10,632 9,217 7,519 7,660 India 376 491 539 922 1,850 1,701 2,183 2,183 1,893 United States 915 581 510 1,306 566 697 899 922 1,633 Brazil 321 391 231 755 1,400 1,045 1,478 1,666 1,426 Pakistan 55 131 313 608 316 734 808 917 845 Turkey 24 112 150 283 412 705 939 857 832 Bangladesh n/a 8 35 27 216 379 422 450 468 Others 2,502 2,961 3,393 2,957 2,616 2,922 3,341 3,199 2,958 World 4,605 5,151 6,761 10,614 9,463 18,815 19,287 17,713 17,714 Exports United States 848 1,290 1,697 1,467 3,130 3,248 3,527 3,266 3,464 Brazil 220 21 167 68 435 607 930 1,118 2,110 Australia 4 53 329 849 545 812 905 789 600 India 34 140 255 24 1,085 991 1,126 1,126 547 Benin 96 42 24 137 299 297 330 Mali 19 35 114 134 92 240 261 321 308 Greece n/a n/a 390 71 24 198 234 265 269 Others n/a n/a 2,021 3,150 2,382 1,957 1,793 2,284 2,031 World 3,875 4,414 5,069 5,805 7,717 8,190 9,075 9,466 9,659 Imports China 108 773 480 52 2,609 1,096 1,358 1,548 2,000 Bangladesh 0 45 80 248 843 1,412 1,671 1,805 1,797 Vietnam 33 40 31 84 350 1,198 1,574 1,717 1,667 Indonesia 36 106 324 570 471 746 797 825 920 Turkey 1 0 46 381 760 801 833 833 652 Pakistan 1 0 43 410 283 538 671 917 595 India 155 9 49 350 87 228 330 330 347 Others 3,753 3,582 4,167 3,670 2,354 2,109 1,841 1,491 1,682 World 4,086 4,555 5,220 5,764 7,756 8,128 9,075 9,466 9,659 Source: ICAC (April 2019 update). Note: n/a implies data not available. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 51 Crude oil Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 (thousand barrels per day) Production United States 11,297 10,170 8,914 7,732 7,549 11,768 12,750 12,366 13,057 Saudi Arabia 3,851 10,270 7,105 9,470 10,075 11,505 11,994 12,402 11,951 Russia n/a n/a 10,342 6,584 10,383 10,860 11,009 11,269 11,257 Iran 3,848 1,479 3,270 3,852 4,430 3,724 3,862 4,602 4,982 Canada 1,473 1,764 1,968 2,703 3,332 4,271 4,389 4,470 4,831 Iraq 1,549 2,658 2,149 2,613 2,469 3,239 3,986 4,423 4,520 United Arab Emirates 780 1,735 1,985 2,599 2,915 3,599 3,873 4,020 3,935 China 616 2,122 2,778 3,257 4,077 4,246 4,309 3,999 3,846 Kuwait 3,036 1,757 964 2,244 2,560 3,101 3,065 3,145 3,025 Brazil 167 188 651 1,276 2,137 2,341 2,525 2,608 2,734 Mexico 487 2,129 2,941 3,456 2,959 2,784 2,587 2,456 2,224 Venezuela 3,754 2,228 2,244 3,112 2,842 2,692 2,631 2,387 2,110 Nigeria 1,083 2,058 1,787 2,175 2,534 2,278 2,204 1,903 1,988 Norway n/a 528 1,716 3,346 2,137 1,889 1,946 1,995 1,969 Qatar 363 476 434 853 1,638 1,985 1,958 1,970 1,916 Kazakhstan n/a n/a 571 740 1,676 1,710 1,695 1,655 1,835 Angola 103 150 475 746 1,812 1,668 1,772 1,755 1,674 Algeria 1,052 1,139 1,347 1,549 1,689 1,589 1,558 1,577 1,540 United Kingdom 4 1,676 1,933 2,696 1,356 852 963 1,013 999 Oman 332 285 695 955 865 943 981 1,004 971 Indonesia 854 1,577 1,539 1,456 1,003 852 841 882 949 India 140 193 715 726 882 887 876 856 865 Libya 3,357 1,862 1,424 1,475 1,659 498 432 426 865 Others n/a n/a 7,054 9,292 10,346 9,440 9,341 8,840 8,606 World 48,072 62,947 65,001 74,907 83,325 88,721 91,547 92,023 92,649 Consumption United States 14,710 17,062 16,988 19,701 19,180 19,106 19,531 19,687 19,880 China 554 1,707 2,297 4,697 9,436 11,209 11,986 12,302 12,799 India 390 643 1,211 2,259 3,319 3,849 4,164 4,560 4,690 Japan 3,876 4,905 5,240 5,542 4,442 4,303 4,151 4,031 3,988 Saudi Arabia 435 592 1,136 1,627 3,206 3,753 3,875 3,939 3,918 Russia n/a n/a 5,042 2,540 2,878 3,301 3,162 3,193 3,224 Brazil 516 1,125 1,417 2,029 2,716 3,242 3,181 3,013 3,017 Korea, Rep. 162 476 1,041 2,260 2,370 2,454 2,577 2,771 2,796 Germany 2,765 3,014 2,685 2,746 2,445 2,348 2,340 2,378 2,447 Canada 1,472 1,898 1,747 2,043 2,306 2,399 2,348 2,401 2,428 Mexico 441 1,072 1,611 1,952 2,040 1,960 1,939 1,977 1,910 Iran 224 570 1,004 1,404 1,791 1,953 1,766 1,722 1,816 Indonesia 138 386 652 1,148 1,411 1,681 1,564 1,580 1,652 France 1,860 2,220 1,895 1,994 1,763 1,616 1,615 1,600 1,615 United Kingdom 2,031 1,649 1,751 1,713 1,623 1,518 1,561 1,592 1,598 Others n/a n/a 20,810 23,146 27,609 28,294 29,083 29,742 30,408 World 45,227 61,300 66,527 76,801 88,535 92,986 94,843 96,488 98,186 Source: BP Statistical Review (June 2018 update). Note: n/a implies data not available. Production includes crude oil and natural gas liquids but excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and derivatives of coal and natural gas include in consumption. 52 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Fertilizers—Nitrogen Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 (thousand tonnes nutrients) Production China 1,200 9,993 14,637 22,175 35,678 36,810 35,238 36,312 32,801 India 838 2,164 6,993 10,943 12,178 12,409 12,434 13,476 13,377 United States 8,161 12,053 10,816 8,352 9,587 8,880 9,191 9,315 10,084 Russia n/a n/a n/a 5,452 6,544 6,819 6,678 7,380 8,152 Canada 726 1,755 2,683 3,797 3,364 3,213 3,323 3,604 3,482 Indonesia 45 958 2,462 2,853 3,207 3,442 3,406 3,456 3,404 Pakistan 140 572 1,120 2,054 2,629 2,589 2,647 2,918 3,233 Egypt 118 401 678 1,441 2,761 2,274 1,941 1,721 2,799 Qatar n/a 295 350 748 1,556 2,535 2,499 2,618 2,603 Saudi Arabia 0 138 568 1,278 1,695 1,920 2,119 2,330 2,588 Iran 31 72 376 726 1,524 1,920 1,733 1,918 2,273 Ukraine n/a n/a 3,004 2,130 2,312 2,394 1,866 1,587 1,718 Poland 1,030 1,290 1,233 1,497 1,509 1,456 1,394 1,372 1,368 Netherlands 957 1,624 1,928 1,300 1,175 1,281 1,328 1,226 1,320 Belarus n/a n/a 747 574 740 922 1,036 1,074 1,061 Algeria 22 24 80 91 21 68 438 778 1,043 Belgium 594 743 770 935 947 1,053 1,027 1,044 1,002 Lithuania n/a n/a n/a 530 882 810 909 856 994 Germany 1,900 2,380 1,165 1,558 1,289 1,316 1,316 1,253 991 Others 16,927 28,491 22,354 18,191 18,518 19,170 18,821 19,048 19,198 World 32,690 62,951 71,964 86,623 108,116 111,282 109,344 113,285 113,489 Consumption China 2,987 11,787 19,233 22,720 25,440 28,240 25,705 27,729 26,064 India 1,310 3,522 7,566 10,911 16,558 16,750 16,950 17,372 16,735 United States 7,363 10,818 10,239 10,467 11,737 12,384 11,861 12,162 11,789 Brazil 276 886 797 1,998 2,855 3,699 3,871 3,533 4,366 Pakistan 264 843 1,472 2,265 3,143 3,177 3,313 2,672 3,730 Indonesia 184 851 1,610 1,964 3,045 2,819 2,981 2,833 2,990 Canada 323 946 1,158 1,592 1,990 2,457 2,557 2,537 2,425 France 1,425 2,146 2,493 2,317 2,337 2,177 2,195 2,212 2,240 Russia n/a n/a 4,344 960 1,483 1,537 1,496 1,814 2,025 Turkey 243 782 1,200 1,276 1,344 1,584 1,493 1,487 1,896 Germany 1,642 2,303 1,787 1,848 1,786 1,675 1,823 1,711 1,658 Mexico 406 878 1,346 1,342 1,166 1,518 1,524 1,376 1,577 Australia 123 248 439 951 982 1,315 1,407 1,347 1,514 Vietnam 166 129 425 1,332 1,250 1,261 1,354 1,718 1,462 Ukraine n/a n/a 1,836 350 650 1,219 1,181 1,265 1,399 Egypt 331 554 745 1,084 1,159 1,104 1,123 1,219 1,311 Thailand 50 136 577 922 1,311 1,419 1,409 1,240 1,225 Bangladesh 99 266 609 996 1,237 1,132 1,321 1,258 1,209 Poland 785 1,344 671 896 1,090 1,098 1,004 1,043 1,096 Others 13,446 22,054 18,231 15,880 16,683 17,895 18,199 17,872 18,617 World 31,423 60,493 76,777 82,070 97,246 104,460 102,766 104,397 105,328 Source: IFA (http://ifadata.fertilizer.org/ucSearch.aspx, September 2017 update). Note: n/a implies data not available. The statistics are based on the nutrient content. All production statistics are expressed on a calendar-year basis, while consumption statistics are expressed either on a calendar- or on a fertilizer-year basis (see www.fertilizers.org for details). C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 53 Fertilizers—Phosphate and Potash Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 (thousand tonnes nutrients) Phosphate: Production China 907 2,607 4,114 6,759 15,998 16,545 16,576 17,224 17,296 India 228 854 2,077 3,751 4,378 3,973 4,125 4,429 4,560 United States 4,903 7,437 8,105 7,337 6,297 5,861 5,578 5,257 4,266 Morocco 99 174 1,180 1,122 1,875 2,198 2,403 2,169 3,115 Russia n/a n/a 4,943 2,320 2,926 2,743 2,698 3,018 3,024 Brazil 169 1,623 1,091 1,496 2,004 2,100 1,990 2,021 1,983 Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 159 119 919 1,220 1,328 1,343 Others 14,279 20,982 14,908 9,800 8,935 8,824 8,892 8,692 8,547 World 20,585 33,677 36,417 32,744 42,532 43,162 43,481 44,139 44,134 Phosphate: Consumption China 907 2,952 5,770 8,664 13,093 13,629 13,948 12,112 11,858 India 305 1,091 3,125 4,248 8,050 5,634 6,099 6,979 6,705 Brazil 416 1,965 1,202 2,544 3,384 4,641 4,752 4,401 4,973 United States 4,345 4,926 3,811 3,862 3,890 4,339 4,079 4,302 4,234 Indonesia 45 274 581 263 500 1,260 1,331 1,442 1,471 Pakistan 31 227 389 675 767 880 974 1,007 1,269 Canada 326 634 578 634 723 886 944 1,025 973 Australia 757 853 579 1,107 817 816 919 963 890 Turkey 163 483 625 629 515 623 570 585 792 Others 13,581 18,507 19,263 10,186 9,925 11,191 11,306 11,087 11,562 World 20,875 31,912 35,920 32,812 41,663 43,898 44,921 43,904 44,727 Potash: Production Canada 3,179 7,337 7,005 9,174 10,289 9,461 10,636 11,500 10,938 Russia n/a n/a n/a 3,716 6,128 6,086 7,340 8,056 7,509 Belarus n/a n/a 4,992 3,372 5,223 4,229 6,286 6,402 6,110 China 0 20 46 275 3,101 4,565 5,680 6,130 5,880 Germany 4,824 6,123 4,967 3,409 2,962 2,968 3,053 3,055 2,394 Israel 576 797 1,296 1,748 1,944 2,150 2,126 1,585 2,350 Chile 21 23 41 408 850 1,187 1,239 1,229 1,203 Jordan 0 0 842 1,162 1,166 1,047 1,255 1,413 1,202 Spain 525 691 642 522 313 692 703 723 670 Others 8,346 12,616 3,007 2,356 1,730 1,648 -3,820 155 2,548 World 17,471 27,608 22,838 26,141 33,706 34,033 34,497 40,247 40,803 Potash: Consumption China 25 527 1,761 3,364 5,861 7,050 9,200 10,000 9,850 Brazil 307 1,267 1,210 2,760 3,894 5,094 5,395 5,161 5,727 United States 3,827 5,733 4,537 4,469 4,165 4,819 4,450 4,788 4,790 India 199 618 1,309 1,565 3,514 2,099 2,533 2,402 2,508 Indonesia 18 91 310 266 1,250 1,620 1,772 1,635 1,600 Malaysia 61 250 494 650 1,150 1,290 1,237 1,119 1,119 Vietnam 38 39 29 450 400 570 600 527 591 Others 11,255 15,254 14,605 8,494 7,929 9,012 9,470 9,275 9,453 World 15,730 23,779 24,254 22,018 28,164 31,554 34,657 34,908 35,639 Source: IFA (http://ifadata.fertilizer.org/ucSearch.aspx, September 2017 update). Note: n/a implies data not available. The statistics are based on the nutrient content. All production statistics are expressed on a calendar-year basis, while consumption statistics are expressed either on a calendar- or on a fertilizer-year basis (see www.fertilizers.org for details). 54 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Gold Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1990 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (metric tons) Production China 100 177 255 341 452 450 453 426 389 Australia 242 296 262 257 274 279 291 294 312 Russia n/a 143 163 201 249 257 253 270 311 United States 294 353 256 231 210 214 222 237 212 Canada 169 156 121 103 152 163 164 176 187 Ghana 17 78 67 92 138 130 129 137 158 Peru 9 133 208 164 140 147 153 151 143 Sudan 0 6 5 2 73 82 93 107 127 South Africa 605 431 295 189 152 145 142 137 119 Mexico 9 26 27 79 118 135 132 127 117 Indonesia 11 127 143 106 69 92 81 99 106 Uzbekistan n/a 88 84 90 100 100 100 100 102 Kazakhstan n/a 28 18 30 50 64 75 85 97 Brazil 102 60 38 62 81 83 80 85 95 Argentina 1 26 28 64 60 63 56 63 63 Papua New Guinea 34 75 68 67 56 58 62 60 54 Mali 2 29 49 42 45 47 47 51 49 Guinea 6 16 25 25 23 21 30 47 47 Burkina Faso 3 1 1 24 36 37 39 46 44 Others 528 308 391 488 583 574 612 627 586 World 2,133 2,555 2,504 2,657 3,063 3,139 3,215 3,325 3,320 Fabrication India n/a 704 695 783 771 812 506 783 n/a China 46 213 277 523 1,013 920 788 771 n/a United States n/a 277 219 179 150 164 168 145 n/a Turkey n/a 228 303 109 156 112 101 122 n/a Japan 205 161 165 158 119 102 99 100 n/a Italy n/a 522 290 126 96 94 88 89 n/a Korea, Rep. n/a 107 83 93 82 79 78 80 n/a United Arab Emirates n/a 50 55 33 42 45 45 56 n/a South Africa 18 14 10 25 25 31 38 52 n/a Russia n/a 34 61 61 70 52 47 46 n/a Indonesia 84 99 87 45 53 50 45 45 n/a Iran n/a 46 41 72 62 56 35 42 n/a Switzerland n/a 54 56 41 44 41 34 33 n/a Germany n/a 64 52 41 36 32 32 32 n/a Malaysia 45 86 74 45 45 39 34 30 n/a Canada n/a 25 27 44 32 40 41 29 n/a Singapore 31 26 30 28 29 29 27 28 n/a Saudi Arabia n/a 153 125 47 37 41 32 27 n/a Thailand 86 79 69 27 27 27 24 24 n/a Others n/a 819 608 400 356 356 315 310 n/a World 3,294 3,761 3,325 2,878 3,244 3,122 2,575 2,841 n/a Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters, British Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, World Bank. Note: n/a implies data not available. Fabrication includes the use of scrap. Fabrication of "Saudi Arabia" includes Saudi Arabia and Yemen in 2000. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 55 Iron Ore Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 (million metric tons) Iron Ore Production Australia 62 99 109 176 433 746 811 858 883 Brazil 38 113 152 209 372 399 423 434 436 India 34 41 54 75 209 140 143 185 202 China 55 113 148 105 357 195 124 114 115 Russia n/a n/a n/a 87 99 101 102 104 107 South Africa 10 n/a 30 34 55 67 61 66 62 Ukraine n/a n/a n/a 56 79 82 82 75 60 Iran n/a n/a 2 12 33 48 39 43 55 Canada 43 49 37 36 38 44 46 47 49 United States 82 71 55 63 50 54 43 42 48 Sweden 34 27 20 21 25 28 25 27 27 Mexico 5 8 9 11 14 17 20 19 17 Chile 11 9 8 8 10 13 15 16 16 Mauritania 8 9 11 11 11 13 12 13 12 Kazakhstan n/a n/a n/a 15 18 16 11 10 11 Peru 9 6 3 4 9 7 7 8 9 Mongolia n/a n/a n/a n/a 3 7 6 6 8 Turkey 2 3 6 4 6 11 10 8 6 Venezuela 20 14 20 17 14 6 8 7 5 Liberia 23 18 4 n/a n/a 5 4 2 2 Norway 4 4 2 0 3 4 3 2 2 Others n/a n/a n/a 14 36 73 34 31 32 World 781 931 984 959 1,874 2,077 2,030 2,116 2,163 Crude steel production China 21 37 66 129 639 822 804 808 832 Japan 89 111 110 106 110 101 105 105 105 India 6 10 15 27 69 87 89 95 101 United States 109 101 90 102 80 88 79 78 82 Russia n/a n/a n/a 59 67 71 71 71 71 Korea, Rep. 0 9 23 43 59 72 70 69 71 Germany 40 44 38 46 44 43 43 42 43 Turkey 1 3 9 14 29 34 32 33 38 Brazil 6 15 21 28 33 34 33 31 34 Italy 17 27 25 27 26 24 22 23 24 Taiwan, China 0 3 10 17 20 23 21 22 22 Iran n/a 1 1 7 12 16 16 18 22 Ukraine n/a n/a n/a 32 33 27 23 24 21 Mexico 4 7 9 16 17 19 18 19 20 France 23 23 19 21 15 16 15 14 16 Spain 8 13 13 16 16 14 15 14 14 Canada 11 16 12 17 13 13 12 13 14 Others n/a n/a n/a 143 151 165 152 147 160 World 583 716 770 849 1,433 1,669 1,620 1,627 1,690 Source: Steel Statistical Yearbook 2018. Note: n/a implies data not available. Crude steel production includes all qualities: carbon, stainless, and other alloy. 56 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Lead Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 (thousand metric tons) Mine Production China 100 160 350 660 1,981 2,335 2,337 2,300 2,916 Australia 457 397 565 651 711 653 441 459 472 Peru 157 189 188 271 262 316 314 307 289 United States 519 550 497 465 369 367 336 302 260 Mexico 177 146 177 138 192 264 242 243 235 Russia n/a n/a n/a 14 97 180 195 202 206 India 2 14 26 35 84 136 151 173 175 Bolivia n/a 17 20 10 73 75 90 112 113 Kazakhstan n/a n/a n/a 39 35 41 71 112 86 Turkey 6 8 18 16 39 74 76 70 76 Sweden 78 72 98 107 68 79 76 71 63 Morocco 76 115 72 82 33 32 30 38 51 Tajikistan n/a n/a n/a 2 4 31 47 51 44 Others n/a n/a 564 412 386 374 434 417 World 3,350 3,548 3,143 3,052 4,360 4,969 4,780 4,874 5,403 Refined Production China 100 175 300 1,100 4,158 4,422 4,604 4,716 5,113 United States 605 1,150 1,290 1,457 1,255 1,050 1,000 1,010 1,300 Korea, Rep. n/a 15 63 219 328 641 831 800 795 India 2 26 39 57 367 501 520 565 595 United Kingdom 44 325 329 328 301 357 375 354 354 Mexico 180 184 235 233 257 344 341 343 335 Germany 138 392 394 387 405 378 339 354 289 Brazil 19 85 57 50 115 176 176 180 264 Canada 186 235 184 284 273 269 274 276 252 Japan 175 305 327 312 267 232 240 239 240 Australia 351 234 224 251 213 223 224 211 224 Italy 54 134 171 234 150 210 187 174 174 Spain 69 121 124 120 165 165 166 170 166 Others n/a 2,066 1,782 1,601 1,594 1,727 1,780 1,891 1,797 World 3,419 5,446 5,518 6,633 9,848 10,694 11,057 11,282 11,897 Refined Consumption China n/a 210 244 660 4,171 4,380 4,593 4,795 5,235 United States n/a 1,094 1,275 1,660 1,430 1,560 1,610 1,640 1,795 Korea, Rep. n/a 54 80 309 382 602 622 622 609 India n/a 33 147 56 420 539 571 551 569 Germany n/a 433 448 390 343 357 374 413 364 Brazil n/a 83 75 155 201 240 234 251 317 Japan n/a 393 416 343 224 269 264 287 274 United Kingdom n/a 296 302 301 211 217 285 295 272 Spain n/a 111 115 219 262 238 262 261 249 Others n/a 2,643 2,246 2,398 2,146 2,377 2,498 2,501 2,414 World n/a 5,348 5,348 6,491 9,790 10,779 11,313 11,616 12,099 Source: British Geological Survey, Metallgesellschaft, U.S. Geological Survey, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, World Bank. Note: n/a implies data not available. Refined production and consumption include significant recycled material. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 57 Maize Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (million metric tons) Production United States 105.5 168.6 201.5 251.9 315.6 345.5 384.8 371.1 366.3 China 33.0 62.6 96.8 106.0 177.2 265.0 263.6 259.1 257.3 Brazil 14.1 22.6 24.3 41.5 57.4 67.0 98.5 82.0 96.0 European Union 29.8 42.5 36.5 51.8 58.6 58.7 61.9 62.1 63.0 Argentina 9.9 12.9 7.7 15.4 25.2 29.5 41.0 32.0 47.0 Ukraine n/a n/a 4.7 3.8 11.9 23.3 28.0 24.1 35.8 India 7.5 7.0 9.0 12.0 21.7 22.6 25.9 28.7 27.8 Mexico 8.9 10.4 14.1 17.9 21.1 26.0 27.6 27.6 26.7 Canada 2.6 5.8 7.1 7.0 12.0 13.7 13.9 14.1 13.9 Indonesia 2.8 4.0 5.0 5.9 6.8 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.6 Russia n/a n/a 2.5 1.5 3.1 13.2 15.3 13.2 11.4 Nigeria 1.3 1.7 5.8 4.0 7.7 10.6 10.4 11.0 11.0 South Africa 8.6 14.9 8.6 8.0 10.9 8.2 17.6 13.1 11.0 Others 44.0 55.8 58.2 64.8 106.6 79.1 79.0 84.8 88.5 World 268.1 408.7 481.8 591.6 835.9 972.9 1,078.3 1,034.2 1,068.3 Stocks China 8.9 42.8 82.8 102.4 43.2 212.0 223.0 222.5 204.8 United States 16.8 35.4 38.6 48.2 28.6 44.1 58.3 54.4 51.7 European Union 2.3 4.8 3.7 3.2 5.2 6.9 7.6 9.9 6.9 Brazil 2.0 1.3 0.8 2.7 6.3 6.8 14.0 7.3 6.8 Argentina 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 4.0 1.4 5.3 3.9 6.6 Others 6.2 18.1 14.9 17.7 27.9 40.2 42.6 42.5 37.2 World 36.1 102.5 141.4 175.1 115.4 311.5 350.7 340.4 314.0 Exports United States 12.9 60.7 43.9 49.3 46.5 48.2 58.3 61.9 58.4 Brazil 0.9 0.0 0.0 6.3 8.4 14.0 31.6 25.1 31.0 Argentina 6.4 9.1 4.0 9.7 16.3 21.7 26.0 21.0 30.5 Ukraine n/a n/a 0.4 0.4 5.0 16.6 21.3 18.0 29.5 Russia n/a n/a 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.7 5.6 5.5 3.0 Serbia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.6 2.4 0.8 2.7 Paraguay 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.2 Others 11.9 10.5 9.8 10.5 11.4 11.2 13.0 12.8 10.8 World 32.2 80.3 58.4 76.7 91.6 119.8 160.1 147.1 168.2 Imports European Union 18.9 26.6 5.7 3.7 7.4 13.8 15.0 18.4 22.5 Mexico 0.1 3.8 1.9 6.0 8.3 14.0 14.6 16.1 16.7 Japan 5.2 14.0 16.3 16.3 15.6 15.2 15.2 15.7 15.5 Korea, South 0.3 2.4 5.6 8.7 8.1 10.1 9.2 10.0 10.2 Vietnam 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.3 8.0 8.1 8.8 10.0 Egypt 0.1 1.0 1.9 5.3 5.8 8.7 8.8 9.5 9.7 Iran 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 3.5 6.6 7.8 8.9 9.5 Others 3.7 25.9 26.2 33.6 43.4 62.6 56.9 62.6 67.9 World 28.4 74.3 58.5 75.0 93.4 139.0 135.6 150.0 162.0 Source: USDA (April 9, 2018 update). Note: The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971. European Union includes EU-15 for 1980/81, 1990/91, 2000/01 and EU-28 for 2010-2018. 58 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Natural gas Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 (billion cubic meters) Production United States 572 525 483 519 575 705 740 729 735 Russia n/a n/a 600 537 598 591 584 589 636 Iran 4 5 26 59 150 183 191 203 224 Canada 54 71 103 176 150 159 161 172 176 Qatar 1 5 7 26 124 169 175 177 176 China 3 14 15 27 97 131 136 138 149 Norway n/a 25 25 49 106 108 116 116 123 Australia 2 11 21 31 54 67 76 96 114 Saudi Arabia 2 9 32 47 83 97 99 105 111 Algeria 2 15 52 92 77 80 81 91 91 Malaysia - 3 18 50 68 72 74 76 78 Indonesia 1 19 45 71 87 76 76 71 68 Turkmenistan n/a n/a 83 42 44 70 73 67 62 United Arab Emirates 1 7 20 37 50 53 59 60 60 Uzbekistan n/a n/a 39 53 57 54 55 53 53 Egypt 0 2 8 20 59 47 43 40 49 Nigeria 0 2 4 11 36 43 48 43 47 United Kingdom 11 36 48 114 58 37 41 42 42 Mexico 11 25 26 33 51 51 48 44 41 Thailand n/a n/a 7 21 38 44 41 40 39 Venezuela 9 16 24 31 31 32 36 38 37 Argentina 6 8 17 36 39 35 36 37 37 Netherlands 28 80 64 61 74 61 45 42 37 Others n/a n/a 211 262 464 482 486 481 495 World 976 1,430 1,976 2,406 3,169 3,447 3,519 3,550 3,680 Consumption United States 575 534 517 628 648 722 744 750 740 Russia n/a n/a 414 366 423 424 410 420 425 China 3 14 15 25 109 188 195 209 240 Iran 3 5 24 62 151 181 192 201 214 Japan 4 25 50 76 99 121 119 116 117 Canada 35 50 64 89 89 103 103 110 116 Saudi Arabia 2 9 32 47 83 97 99 105 111 Germany 16 61 64 83 88 74 77 85 90 Mexico 10 22 27 36 66 80 78 92 88 United Kingdom 12 47 55 101 99 70 72 81 79 United Arab Emirates 1 5 17 31 59 63 71 73 72 Italy 12 26 45 68 80 59 65 68 72 Egypt 0 2 8 19 43 46 46 49 56 India 1 1 12 25 60 50 46 51 54 Turkey n/a n/a 3 14 36 47 46 44 52 Others n/a n/a 602 731 1,044 1,073 1,113 1,119 1,144 World 961 1,424 1,949 2,402 3,176 3,399 3,474 3,574 3,670 Source: BP Statistical Review (June 2018 update). Note: n/a implies data not available. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 59 Natural rubber Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 (thousand metric tons) Production Thailand 287 501 1,275 2,346 3,252 4,473 4,519 4,775 5,145 Indonesia 815 822 1,261 1,501 2,736 3,145 3,298 3,499 3,486 Vietnam 28 46 94 291 752 1,013 1,035 1,094 1,110 China 46 113 264 445 687 794 774 798 811 India 90 155 324 629 851 575 624 713 649 Côte d'Ivoire 11 23 69 123 231 351 468 604 624 Malaysia 1,269 1,530 1,291 928 939 722 674 741 603 Myanmar 10 16 15 36 128 212 230 249 270 Brazil 42 53 78 96 136 193 190 187 192 Others 542 591 314 417 691 787 793 892 979 World 3,140 3,850 4,985 6,811 10,403 12,264 12,604 13,551 13,869 Consumption China 250 340 600 1,150 3,622 4,680 4,982 5,301 5,504 European Union 991 1,007 1,012 1,293 1,136 1,159 1,186 1,236 1,241 India 86 171 358 638 944 987 1,033 1,082 1,220 United States 568 585 808 1,195 926 936 932 958 1,012 Thailand 8 28 99 243 487 601 650 685 752 Japan 283 427 677 752 749 691 676 679 706 Indonesia 25 46 108 139 421 509 583 608 625 Malaysia 20 45 184 364 458 475 486 489 515 Brazil 37 81 124 227 378 398 412 398 405 Others 822 1,050 1,099 1,307 1,638 1,698 1,730 1,768 1,833 World 3,090 3,780 5,068 7,306 10,759 12,134 12,670 13,203 13,813 Exports Thailand 279 457 1,151 2,166 2,866 3,776 3,925 4,433 4,499 Indonesia 790 976 1,077 1,380 2,369 2,680 2,642 3,250 2,961 Vietnam 23 33 80 273 782 1,137 1,254 1,380 1,564 Malaysia 1,304 1,482 1,322 978 1,245 1,119 1,023 1,189 1,096 Côte d'Ivoire 11 23 69 121 226 348 459 591 622 Cambodia 7 15 24 33 43 128 145 189 218 Myanmar n/a n/a n/a 27 67 86 109 147 171 Others 406 284 239 299 448 931 905 999 1,071 World 2,820 3,270 3,962 5,277 8,047 10,206 10,463 12,177 12,202 Imports China 178 242 340 820 2,888 3,851 4,131 5,277 5,211 European Union 1,071 1,068 1,072 1,474 1,427 1,536 1,543 1,571 1,614 United States 543 576 820 1,192 931 952 946 972 1,015 Malaysia 45 43 136 548 706 955 931 1,096 1,014 Japan 292 458 663 801 747 682 660 699 694 Vietnam n/a n/a n/a n/a 127 300 418 526 649 India 3 1 61 11 187 414 460 398 586 Others 678 847 1,677 1,534 1,667 1,650 1,667 1,697 1,727 World 2,810 3,235 4,769 6,380 8,681 10,340 10,756 12,237 12,509 Source: IRSG (January-March 2019 update). Note: n/a implies data not available. European Union includes EU-15 for 1980/81, 1990/91, 2000/01 and EU-28 for 2010-2018. 60 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Nickel Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 (thousand metric tons) Mine Production Indonesia 11 41 69 98 220 130 180 339 648 Philippines 0 47 16 20 184 418 301 315 345 New Caledonia 139 87 85 126 131 193 204 215 216 Russia n/a n/a n/a 266 270 261 223 221 207 Canada 277 185 196 191 160 235 235 214 180 Australia 30 74 70 166 168 229 203 179 166 China n/a 11 27 50 80 101 100 98 99 Brazil 3 6 24 45 54 89 79 70 66 Cuba 37 38 39 68 65 54 52 53 51 Colombia n/a 0 23 59 49 37 37 41 43 South Africa 12 26 28 37 40 57 49 48 43 Finland 5 7 11 4 12 9 21 35 42 Guatemala n/a 7 0 n/a 0 46 55 45 38 Others n/a n/a 96 170 219 179 224 185 World 663 758 906 1,227 1,605 2,078 1,917 2,098 2,329 Refined Production China n/a 11 28 51 332 600 450 425 748 Indonesia n/a 4 5 10 19 38 117 205 277 Japan n/a 109 100 161 166 193 196 187 187 Russia n/a n/a n/a 221 262 231 189 160 149 Canada n/a 142 135 134 105 150 158 154 146 Australia n/a 35 45 112 102 153 121 104 116 New Caledonia n/a 33 32 44 40 78 96 104 108 Norway n/a 37 58 59 92 91 93 86 91 Brazil n/a 3 13 23 28 78 77 69 66 Finland n/a 13 17 54 50 61 85 86 61 Korea, Rep. n/a n/a 8 n/a 21 35 45 44 49 Colombia n/a 0 18 28 49 37 37 41 43 United Kingdom n/a 19 27 38 32 39 45 26 41 Others n/a n/a 164 170 209 320 435 190 World n/a 739 904 1,099 1,469 1,991 2,028 2,125 2,272 Refined Consumption China n/a 18 28 58 489 843 898 982 1,074 Japan 99 122 159 192 177 151 162 163 175 United States 149 0 18 153 119 152 136 199 136 Korea, Rep. n/a 0 24 91 101 88 103 109 118 Taiwan, China n/a 0 18 106 73 60 66 84 88 India 2 12 14 23 27 37 57 82 72 Germany 40 78 93 102 100 60 58 64 61 Italy 20 27 27 53 62 60 56 60 58 United Kingdom 38 23 33 34 20 18 24 37 52 Others 228 437 427 340 257 314 363 332 347 World 576 717 842 1,150 1,426 1,783 1,923 2,112 2,181 Source: British Geological Survey, Metallgesellschaft, U.S. Geological Survey, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, World Bank. Note: n/a implies data not available. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 61 Palm oil and Soybean oil Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (thousand metric tons) Palm oil Production Indonesia 248 752 2,650 8,300 23,600 32,000 36,000 39,500 41,500 Malaysia 589 2,692 6,031 11,937 18,211 17,700 18,858 19,683 20,500 Thailand 0 19 200 580 1,832 1,804 2,500 2,700 2,900 Colombia 36 80 252 520 753 1,268 1,099 1,633 1,625 Nigeria 432 520 600 730 971 955 990 1,025 1,015 Guatemala 0 0 6 124 231 625 740 852 852 Papua New Guinea 0 45 145 336 488 570 650 630 630 Ecuador 5 44 150 222 380 520 565 573 580 Honduras 0 18 64 148 320 490 620 580 580 Others 612 726 936 1,352 2,420 2,936 3,205 3,287 3,299 World 1,922 4,896 11,034 24,249 49,206 58,868 65,227 70,463 73,481 Palm oil Production Indonesia 29 561 1,330 3,263 6,269 9,270 9,160 11,000 13,050 India 1 431 259 3,160 5,910 9,100 9,450 9,180 10,600 European Union 595 607 1,509 2,790 4,750 6,600 6,800 6,750 6,700 China 53 16 1,194 2,028 5,797 4,800 4,750 5,100 6,165 Malaysia 8 420 914 1,571 2,204 3,000 2,587 3,236 3,476 Pakistan 1 231 800 1,245 2,093 2,795 2,995 3,095 3,195 Thailand 0 43 208 508 1,304 1,835 2,106 2,390 2,440 Others 1,112 2,454 4,941 7,946 16,940 22,310 23,814 25,551 26,583 World 1,799 4,763 11,155 22,511 45,267 59,710 61,662 66,302 72,209 Soybean oil production China 181 183 599 3,240 9,840 14,605 15,770 16,128 15,770 United States 3,749 5,112 6,082 8,355 8,568 9,956 10,035 10,781 11,145 Argentina 0 158 1,179 3,190 7,181 8,433 8,395 7,236 8,415 Brazil 0 2,601 2,669 4,333 6,970 7,627 7,755 8,535 8,195 European Union 1,260 2,478 2,317 3,033 2,343 2,841 2,736 2,841 3,154 India 2 69 425 810 1,683 990 1,620 1,386 1,620 Mexico 52 255 330 795 648 785 820 937 982 Russia n/a n/a 75 62 367 717 788 824 896 Paraguay 10 6 56 170 310 720 711 733 740 Others 945 1,713 2,033 2,830 3,552 4,885 5,090 5,769 6,049 World 6,199 12,575 15,765 26,818 41,462 51,559 53,720 55,170 56,966 Soybean oil consumption China 179 256 1,055 3,542 11,409 15,350 16,350 16,500 16,608 United States 2,854 4,134 5,506 7,401 7,506 9,145 9,010 9,696 10,364 Brazil 0 1,490 2,075 2,932 5,205 6,288 6,570 6,940 7,035 India 79 708 445 1,750 2,550 5,250 5,150 4,720 4,900 Argentina 0 56 101 247 2,520 2,840 2,985 3,081 3,075 European Union 1,170 1,926 1,879 2,186 2,400 2,285 2,205 2,225 2,280 Mexico 52 305 404 863 840 1,020 1,070 1,060 1,150 Others 1,624 3,542 3,976 7,222 8,056 10,018 10,071 10,389 10,941 World 5,958 12,417 15,441 26,143 40,486 52,196 53,411 54,611 56,353 Source: USDA (April 9, 2019 update). Note: The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971. European Union includes EU-15 for 1980/81, 1990/91, 2000/01 and EU-28 for 2010-2018. 62 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Platinum Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 2003 2005 2008 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (metric tons) Mine Production South Africa 146.1 157.2 145.4 147.7 135.9 100.2 140.7 133.2 132.3 Russia 25.9 29.9 25.8 24.4 23.0 21.4 22.4 21.1 22.0 Zimbabwe 4.3 5.0 5.6 8.9 12.7 12.4 12.4 15.0 14.6 Canada 4.6 7.2 7.1 4.0 6.8 8.7 7.5 8.3 7.2 United States 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 Others 2.3 2.8 4.0 3.8 4.9 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 World 187.4 206.0 191.5 192.3 187.0 150.7 190.9 185.6 184.2 Autocatalyst scrap North America 15.1 15.6 17.3 14.0 14.4 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.2 Europe 3.9 5.4 9.2 9.3 11.7 13.5 11.9 12.1 13.2 Japan 2.1 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 China n/a 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.0 Others 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.5 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 5.4 World 22.9 25.1 31.3 28.1 32.7 34.0 33.1 35.0 36.9 Old jewelry scrap China 0.9 5.1 10.4 11.7 15.5 14.5 13.9 15.0 14.3 Japan 4.0 6.0 18.0 8.7 7.3 7.6 6.7 6.2 5.7 North America 0.1 0.2 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Europe 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Others 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 World 5.2 11.5 30.1 21.2 23.4 22.8 21.1 21.6 20.5 TOTAL SUPPLY 215.5 242.6 252.9 236.7 234.9 207.4 245.1 242.2 241.6 Autocatalyst demand Europe 41.3 56.1 56.9 44.5 37.6 40.7 43.9 46.2 45.1 North America 26.8 23.3 17.5 12.0 15.4 15.6 14.9 13.4 13.8 Japan 16.6 18.1 17.0 13.5 11.3 11.0 10.3 9.8 10.1 China 4.7 5.5 5.7 6.7 7.0 7.0 7.6 8.6 9.9 Others 8.0 12.5 14.1 17.1 20.5 21.7 21.5 21.4 22.3 World 97.4 115.5 111.2 93.8 91.8 96.0 98.2 99.4 101.2 Jewelry demand China 46.1 35.0 34.5 44.8 57.6 54.7 51.7 43.4 39.9 Japan 21.3 20.5 7.7 8.1 10.2 9.9 10.1 9.9 9.8 North America 9.9 8.1 6.4 6.6 7.3 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.6 Europe 8.5 7.9 7.4 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.3 Others 2.4 1.2 1.4 4.9 3.4 3.9 4.6 4.5 5.0 World 88.2 72.7 57.4 71.2 85.4 82.8 80.8 72.1 68.6 Other demand North America 15.8 15.8 14.2 11.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 15.6 17.3 China n/a 4.7 9.1 7.6 10.8 8.0 10.1 17.1 15.4 Japan 9.9 13.2 17.9 10.4 1.7 2.6 17.9 17.2 10.9 Europe 11.1 9.5 9.8 9.7 9.7 11.0 11.4 11.8 11.7 Others 14.0 14.0 18.7 24.1 12.5 16.9 14.5 15.0 18.2 World 50.8 57.2 69.7 63.1 48.2 52.1 67.5 76.7 73.5 TOTAL DEMAND 236.4 245.4 238.3 228.1 225.4 230.9 246.5 248.2 243.3 Source: Platinum & Palladium Survey, Thomson Reuters (June 2018 update). Note: Other demand includes chemical, electronics, glass, petroleum, retail investment and other industrial demand. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 63 Rice Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (million metric tons) Production China 77.0 97.9 132.5 131.5 137.0 148.5 147.8 148.9 148.5 India 42.2 53.6 74.3 85.0 96.0 104.4 109.7 112.9 116.0 Indonesia 13.1 22.3 29.0 33.0 35.5 36.2 36.9 37.0 37.1 Bangladesh 11.1 13.9 17.9 25.1 31.7 34.5 34.6 32.7 35.0 Vietnam 6.4 7.7 12.4 20.5 26.4 27.6 27.4 28.5 29.1 Thailand 9.0 11.5 11.3 17.1 20.3 15.8 19.2 20.4 20.7 Myanmar 5.1 6.7 7.9 10.8 11.1 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.1 Philippines 3.4 5.0 6.4 8.1 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.2 12.0 Japan 11.5 8.9 9.6 8.6 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 Brazil 3.7 5.9 6.8 6.9 9.3 7.2 8.4 8.2 7.5 Pakistan 2.2 3.1 3.3 4.8 4.8 6.8 6.8 7.5 7.4 United States 2.8 4.8 5.1 5.9 7.6 6.1 7.1 5.7 7.1 Cambodia 2.5 1.1 1.6 2.5 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.5 Others 22.9 27.6 33.3 39.4 48.1 53.2 55.6 55.2 54.8 World 213.0 269.9 351.4 399.2 450.5 476.3 490.9 495.5 501.4 Stocks China 11.0 28.0 94.0 93.0 42.5 88.0 98.5 109.0 116.0 India 6.0 6.5 14.5 25.0 23.5 18.4 20.6 22.6 25.0 Indonesia 0.6 3.0 2.1 4.6 7.1 8.4 4.2 3.2 3.7 Thailand 1.2 2.0 0.9 2.2 5.6 3.5 2.9 4.1 3.6 Philippines 0.6 1.5 1.8 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 3.0 Others 9.4 11.6 13.3 19.0 18.8 22.2 21.7 21.2 20.1 World 28.8 52.6 126.6 146.7 100.0 142.6 149.9 162.4 171.4 Exports India 0.0 0.9 0.7 1.7 2.8 10.4 11.7 12.0 12.5 Thailand 1.6 3.0 4.0 7.5 10.6 9.9 11.6 11.1 10.0 Vietnam 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.5 7.0 5.1 6.5 6.6 7.0 Pakistan 0.2 1.2 1.3 2.4 3.4 4.2 3.5 4.0 4.0 United States 1.5 3.1 2.3 2.6 3.5 3.4 3.6 2.8 3.0 Myanmar 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 3.4 2.8 2.8 China 1.3 0.5 0.7 1.8 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 Others 3.1 3.0 1.9 3.7 6.3 6.0 6.1 6.5 5.8 World 8.5 12.4 12.1 24.0 35.2 40.5 47.3 47.1 47.3 Imports China 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 4.8 5.3 5.5 4.5 Philippines 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.3 2.5 Nigeria 0.0 0.4 0.2 1.3 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.0 2.2 European Union 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 Cote d'Ivoire 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 Saudi Arabia 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 Iran 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 2.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 Others 6.5 8.9 7.9 15.7 23.6 24.7 26.8 32.2 29.0 World 7.7 11.3 10.6 22.1 33.1 38.3 41.1 46.9 44.3 Source: USDA (April 9, 2019 update). Note: The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971. European Union includes EU-15 for 1980/81, 1990/91, 2000/01 and EU-28 for 2010-2018. 64 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Silver Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1990 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (metric tons) Production Mexico 2,352 2,620 2,894 4,411 5,766 5,955 5,409 5,815 5,624 Peru 1,762 2,438 3,193 3,640 3,768 4,102 4,375 4,304 4,161 China 150 1,569 2,500 3,085 3,673 3,421 3,496 2,500 2,615 Russia n/a 400 1,350 1,145 1,434 1,580 1,449 1,600 1,571 Poland 832 1,164 1,262 1,183 1,384 1,407 1,482 1,490 1,425 Australia 1,173 2,059 2,417 1,879 1,847 1,430 1,418 1,120 1,257 Chile 655 1,242 1,400 1,287 1,572 1,504 1,501 1,319 1,243 Bolivia 311 434 420 1,259 1,345 1,306 1,353 1,196 1,195 Kazakhstan n/a 895 883 552 989 1,309 1,187 1,059 969 United States 2,121 1,980 1,226 1,276 1,184 1,090 1,150 1,020 901 India 32 46 28 165 328 490 461 500 614 Argentina 83 78 264 694 905 925 933 650 545 Sweden 243 329 310 302 383 480 499 468 471 Canada 1,501 1,212 1,124 591 495 384 385 390 353 Morocco 241 289 186 243 189 216 237 239 231 Turkey 27 193 219 364 184 191 175 175 174 Dominican Republic 23 n/a 0 23 135 96 122 147 173 Indonesia 67 314 329 290 119 152 115 105 105 Papua New Guinea 115 79 51 84 81 45 90 69 90 Others 3,143 861 698 915 1,660 1,713 1,877 2,394 750 World 14,828 18,202 20,753 23,388 27,440 27,795 27,715 26,559 24,468 Fabrication India 47 115 3,116 2,486 6,247 7,374 5,081 5,327 6,864 China 18 36 4,307 6,792 7,784 6,866 5,873 6,241 6,262 United States 137 192 5,891 6,768 6,831 7,383 6,660 5,812 5,818 Japan 116 135 3,860 3,020 2,700 3,056 3,307 3,490 3,246 Germany 54 40 1,260 1,690 1,003 1,121 1,213 1,216 1,224 Canada 7 3 126 667 1,079 1,243 1,182 734 742 Italy 51 67 1,577 1,109 875 878 854 890 855 Thailand 24 31 1,150 991 979 1,063 1,015 914 875 Mexico 14 17 693 556 617 532 494 456 386 Russia n/a n/a 795 944 793 724 671 663 673 United Kingdom 25 42 1,330 677 629 677 665 650 646 Australia 5 7 210 450 430 566 583 499 404 Korea, Rep. 7 20 794 929 820 628 516 514 492 Taiwan, China 5 9 380 486 488 467 471 492 502 Belgium 20 35 846 577 447 425 426 345 322 France 27 29 381 697 415 446 439 440 438 Brazil 7 7 232 319 379 358 304 228 234 Indonesia 1 4 159 199 223 234 248 253 262 Turkey 5 7 309 201 240 233 228 228 243 Others n/a n/a 2,025 3,095 1,808 1,892 1,813 1,662 1,658 World n/a n/a 29,441 32,653 34,787 36,166 32,043 31,054 32,146 Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters, British Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, World Bank. Note: n/a implies data not available. Fabrication: jewelry and silverware including the use of scrap. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 65 Soybeans Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (million metric tons) Production United States 30.7 48.9 52.4 75.1 90.7 106.9 116.9 120.1 123.7 Brazil 0.0 15.2 15.8 39.5 75.3 96.5 114.6 122.0 117.0 Argentina 0.0 3.5 11.5 27.8 49.0 58.8 55.0 37.8 55.0 China 8.7 7.9 11.0 15.4 15.1 12.4 13.6 15.2 15.9 India 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.3 10.1 6.9 11.0 8.4 11.0 Paraguay 0.1 0.6 1.3 3.5 7.1 9.2 10.3 10.3 9.0 Canada 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.7 4.4 6.5 6.6 7.7 7.3 Ukraine n/a n/a 0.1 0.1 1.7 3.9 4.3 3.9 4.5 Russia n/a n/a 0.7 0.3 1.1 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.0 Bolivia 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.2 2.1 2.6 2.7 European Union 0.1 0.5 2.3 1.3 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.7 Others 2.3 3.1 5.0 3.7 6.3 7.3 9.3 7.5 7.8 World 42.1 80.9 104.3 175.8 264.4 316.6 349.3 341.7 360.6 Crushings China 1.5 1.5 3.9 18.9 55.0 81.5 88.0 90.0 88.0 United States 20.7 27.8 32.3 44.6 44.9 51.3 51.7 55.9 57.2 Argentina 0.0 0.9 7.0 17.3 37.6 43.3 43.3 36.9 43.0 Brazil 0.0 13.8 14.2 22.7 36.3 39.7 40.4 44.5 42.7 European Union 7.3 14.1 13.0 16.8 12.3 15.0 14.4 15.0 16.6 India 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.5 9.4 5.5 9.0 7.7 9.0 Mexico 0.3 1.5 1.9 4.5 3.6 4.4 4.6 5.3 5.5 Russia n/a n/a 0.4 0.4 2.1 4.0 4.4 4.6 5.0 Paraguay 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 Others 5.4 9.7 11.4 15.8 19.4 26.6 27.7 31.4 32.9 World 35.3 69.8 86.8 146.5 222.2 275.1 287.3 295.2 303.8 Exports Brazil 0.0 1.8 2.5 15.5 30.0 54.4 63.1 76.2 79.5 United States 11.8 19.7 15.2 27.1 41.0 52.9 59.0 57.9 51.0 Argentina 0.0 2.7 4.5 7.3 9.2 9.9 7.0 2.1 6.3 Paraguay 0.0 0.6 1.0 2.4 5.1 5.4 6.1 6.0 5.6 Canada 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.9 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.4 Others 0.5 0.4 2.1 0.7 3.4 5.8 7.7 5.8 6.5 World 12.3 25.3 25.4 53.7 91.6 132.6 147.5 153.0 154.3 Imports China 0.0 0.5 0.0 13.2 52.3 83.2 93.5 94.1 88.0 European Union 7.4 13.6 13.2 17.7 12.5 15.1 13.4 14.6 15.8 Argentina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 1.7 5.1 5.4 Mexico 0.1 1.4 1.4 4.4 3.5 4.1 4.1 4.9 5.2 Egypt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.3 2.1 3.3 3.4 Japan 3.2 4.2 4.4 4.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 Thailand 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.1 2.8 3.1 2.5 3.2 Others 1.9 6.5 6.5 11.1 14.8 22.9 23.1 25.7 27.0 World 12.6 26.2 25.5 53.1 89.8 133.3 144.2 153.3 151.2 Source: USDA (April 9, 2019 update). Note: The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971. European Union includes EU-15 for 1980/81, 1990/91, 2000/01 and EU-28 for 2010-2018. 66 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Sugar Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (million metric tons) Production India 4.5 6.5 13.7 20.5 26.6 27.4 22.2 34.1 35.9 Brazil 5.1 8.5 7.9 17.1 38.4 34.7 39.2 38.9 30.6 European Union 15.4 19.0 23.2 0.0 15.9 14.3 18.3 20.9 19.5 Thailand 0.5 1.7 4.0 5.1 9.7 9.7 10.0 14.7 13.8 China 2.1 3.2 6.8 6.8 11.2 9.1 9.3 10.3 10.8 United States 5.6 5.6 6.3 8.0 7.1 8.2 8.1 8.4 8.2 Pakistan 0.0 0.9 2.1 2.6 3.9 5.3 6.8 7.4 6.5 Mexico 2.5 2.5 3.9 5.2 5.5 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.4 Russia 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.6 3.0 5.2 6.2 6.5 6.1 Australia 2.7 3.3 3.6 4.2 3.7 4.9 5.1 4.8 5.0 Guatemala 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 Others 31.7 36.7 39.4 58.1 35.2 36.9 39.7 39.4 40.4 World 70.3 88.6 114.4 130.8 162.2 164.9 174.0 194.6 185.9 Stocks India 1.8 1.1 3.6 12.0 6.3 9.3 6.6 13.7 18.1 Thailand 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.6 3.0 5.3 5.6 7.2 6.9 China 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.0 1.6 9.6 7.8 6.5 5.4 Pakistan 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.5 1.5 2.8 3.1 2.9 Mexico 0.7 0.7 2.4 1.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.7 Indonesia 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.5 European Union 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.2 2.2 2.2 1.5 Others 16.9 14.5 14.1 22.9 13.7 15.0 14.4 15.5 14.8 World 20.2 17.6 22.4 39.9 29.5 44.1 42.2 51.5 52.9 Exports Brazil 1.2 2.3 1.3 7.7 25.8 24.0 24.4 28.5 28.2 Thailand 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.4 6.6 8.3 7.1 7.0 10.5 India 0.3 0.1 0.2 1.4 3.9 2.6 3.8 2.1 1.8 Australia 1.8 2.6 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.6 3.7 4.0 3.8 European Union 2.7 6.5 8.1 0.0 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.5 3.6 Guatemala 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 Pakistan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.4 1.8 Others 14.9 15.7 18.0 21.6 12.1 11.1 15.9 18.3 6.3 World 21.3 28.4 33.9 38.3 53.9 54.0 58.6 63.9 57.9 Imports Indonesia 0.1 0.6 0.2 1.6 3.1 3.7 4.9 4.3 4.3 China 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.1 6.1 4.6 4.2 4.0 United Arab Emirates 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.8 2.7 United States 4.8 4.4 2.6 1.4 3.4 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.5 Bangladesh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.5 Algeria 0.0 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.3 Malaysia 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 Others 12.0 20.9 26.2 32.0 34.0 33.8 34.1 32.3 30.7 World 17.3 28.2 32.1 40.4 49.1 54.7 54.5 53.5 51.0 Source: USDA (April 9, 2019 update). Note: The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971. European Union includes EU-15 for 1980/81, 1990/91, 2000/01 and EU-28 for 2010-2017. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 67 Tea Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 (thousand metric tons) Production China 136 304 540 683 1,450 2,096 2,277 2,313 2,460 India 419 570 688 826 991 1,207 1,233 1,250 1,325 Kenya 41 90 197 236 399 445 399 473 440 Sri Lanka 212 191 233 306 331 338 342 350 350 Turkey 33 96 123 139 235 227 239 243 234 Vietnam 15 21 32 70 198 228 236 240 260 Indonesia 64 106 156 163 150 154 133 144 139 Iran 20 32 37 223 121 72 197 132 101 Japan 91 102 90 85 85 84 80 80 81 Myanmar 11 13 15 63 95 99 100 102 105 Argentina 26 36 51 74 92 83 82 85 81 Bangladesh 31 40 39 46 60 64 66 65 82 Malawi 19 30 39 42 52 45 48 48 48 Uganda 18 2 7 29 49 61 61 63 64 Thailand 0 1 7 32 67 40 49 52 58 Others 151 261 272 214 246 267 269 273 274 World 1,287 1,894 2,525 3,231 4,622 5,510 5,810 5,914 6,101 Consumption China 109 220 383 497 1,217 n/a n/a n/a n/a India 218 331 490 632 774 n/a n/a n/a n/a Brazil 90 81 133 514 406 n/a n/a n/a n/a Iran 24 39 79 48 200 n/a n/a n/a n/a Turkey 26 91 95 137 242 n/a n/a n/a n/a Argentina 122 132 149 271 219 n/a n/a n/a n/a United States 68 81 84 145 170 n/a n/a n/a n/a Russia n/a n/a n/a 158 176 n/a n/a n/a n/a Japan 105 116 123 144 127 n/a n/a n/a n/a Pakistan 30 61 106 111 93 n/a n/a n/a n/a United Kingdom 234 186 142 133 121 n/a n/a n/a n/a Others 476 748 1,055 935 1,308 n/a n/a n/a n/a World 1,502 2,086 2,839 3,725 5,053 n/a n/a n/a n/a Exports Sri Lanka 208 185 216 287 313 325 305 287 n/a Kenya 42 84 166 217 418 271 260 293 n/a China 38 98 195 228 303 301 325 329 n/a India 200 239 198 201 235 213 235 230 n/a Indonesia 41 74 111 106 87 66 62 51 n/a Argentina 19 33 46 50 86 77 76 78 n/a Vietnam 2 9 16 56 137 84 72 74 n/a Malawi 18 31 41 42 50 48 39 41 n/a Uganda 15 1 5 26 55 60 53 5 n/a Others 169 230 233 252 341 394 323 313 n/a World 752 984 1,228 1,464 2,023 1,839 1,749 1,701 n/a Source: FAO (January 18, 2019 update). Note: Consumption includes domestic use for food, feed, waste, and other uses. 68 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Timber—Roundwood and Sawnwood Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 (million cubic meters) Industrial roundwood: Production United States 312.7 327.1 427.2 420.6 336.1 356.8 354.7 356.6 355.2 Russia n/a n/a n/a 145.6 161.6 188.3 190.5 198.2 197.6 China 42.2 79.2 91.2 96.0 161.8 161.0 147.2 163.0 161.7 Canada 117.5 150.8 156.0 198.9 138.8 148.8 151.4 154.7 153.1 Brazil 23.9 61.7 74.3 103.0 128.4 137.7 136.2 145.1 145.1 Indonesia 12.7 30.9 38.4 48.8 54.1 74.0 74.0 74.0 74.0 Sweden 56.7 44.8 49.1 57.4 66.3 67.4 67.3 67.9 68.5 Finland 37.5 43.0 40.2 50.1 46.0 49.2 51.4 54.3 55.3 India 12.7 19.7 35.1 41.2 48.8 49.5 49.5 49.5 49.5 Others 660.7 689.5 798.1 525.5 562.0 613.2 617.5 626.6 646.7 World 1,276.4 1,446.7 1,709.5 1,687.2 1,703.9 1,846.0 1,839.8 1,889.9 1,906.8 Industrial roundwood: Imports China 2.0 8.3 7.2 15.7 35.4 51.2 44.2 48.5 55.3 Germany 5.2 3.8 2.0 3.5 7.7 8.4 8.7 8.7 8.7 Austria 2.0 3.7 4.4 8.5 8.0 7.2 7.8 9.2 8.6 Sweden 0.6 3.1 2.0 11.7 6.3 8.1 6.9 6.8 7.7 Canada 2.1 3.0 1.5 6.5 4.7 4.3 4.6 6.2 6.5 India 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.2 5.3 7.0 5.8 5.5 4.9 Finland 2.3 3.8 5.2 9.9 6.3 6.3 5.7 5.9 4.8 Others 69.0 69.7 58.9 57.2 36.1 40.3 37.6 37.8 35.3 World 83.1 95.4 82.6 115.3 109.8 132.8 121.5 128.7 131.8 Sawnwood: Production United States 63.7 65.3 86.1 91.1 60.0 68.4 74.3 77.2 86.0 Canada 19.8 32.8 39.7 50.5 38.7 75.8 76.4 78.2 80.4 China 14.8 21.2 23.6 6.7 37.2 43.4 47.1 49.7 49.5 Russia n/a n/a n/a 20.0 28.9 34.6 34.5 36.8 40.6 Germany 11.6 13.0 14.7 16.3 22.1 21.8 21.5 22.2 23.2 Sweden 12.3 11.3 12.0 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.4 18.4 Brazil 8.0 14.9 13.7 21.3 17.5 15.2 14.8 14.6 14.6 Finland 7.4 10.3 7.5 13.4 9.5 10.9 10.6 11.4 11.7 Austria 5.4 6.7 7.5 10.4 9.6 8.5 8.7 9.4 9.6 Others 246.3 245.4 258.1 139.0 135.5 143.2 145.6 149.0 151.1 World 389.1 420.9 463.0 384.8 375.6 439.2 451.7 466.8 485.1 Sawnwood: Imports China 0.1 0.3 1.3 6.1 16.2 27.0 26.6 31.5 37.4 United States 10.6 17.0 22.5 34.4 16.6 22.2 24.4 28.3 27.4 United Kingdom 9.0 6.6 10.7 7.9 5.7 6.4 6.3 6.6 7.6 Japan 3.0 5.6 9.0 10.0 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.3 Germany 6.0 6.9 6.1 6.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.1 Italy 4.0 5.8 6.0 8.4 6.1 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 Egypt 0.4 1.6 1.6 2.0 4.8 6.6 5.8 5.0 4.6 Others 19.6 27.8 27.3 40.6 48.2 53.1 52.7 52.6 55.4 World 52.6 71.5 84.5 115.6 108.4 130.9 131.3 140.2 148.7 Source: FAO (January 10, 2019 update). Note: Industrial roundwood, reported in cubic meters solid volume underbark (i.e. exclusing bark), is an aggregate comprising sawlogs and veneer logs; pulpwood, round and split; and other industrial roundwood except wood fuel. Sawnwood, reported in cubic meters solid volume, includes wood that has been produced from both domestic and imported roundwood, either by sawing lengthways or by a profile-chipping process and that exceeds 6mm in thickness. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 69 Timber—Wood panels and Woodpulp Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 (million cubic meters) Wood -based panels: Production China 0.9 2.3 3.0 19.3 109.2 187.9 197.3 208.2 201.3 United States 23.0 26.4 37.0 45.7 32.6 33.4 33.5 34.1 35.2 Russia n/a n/a n/a 4.8 10.1 12.5 13.5 14.2 15.6 Germany 5.8 8.3 9.6 14.1 12.6 12.2 12.1 12.5 13.1 Canada 3.3 4.8 6.4 15.0 9.9 11.3 11.8 12.0 12.3 Poland 1.0 2.0 1.4 4.7 8.2 9.1 9.7 10.4 11.0 Brazil 0.8 2.5 2.9 5.8 10.2 10.4 10.2 10.5 10.9 Turkey 0.2 0.4 0.8 2.4 6.6 9.6 9.3 9.5 9.3 Thailand 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 5.2 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.1 Others 34.6 54.4 67.6 73.5 83.6 79.6 81.5 84.5 86.8 World 69.8 101.3 129.0 186.4 288.3 371.8 385.1 402.0 401.5 Wood -based panels: Imports United States 2.5 2.1 4.2 13.9 8.1 9.2 11.2 12.6 14.2 Germany 1.0 2.3 3.3 4.1 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.7 Japan 0.6 0.3 3.8 6.2 4.2 4.5 4.0 3.9 4.0 United Kingdom 2.0 2.4 3.3 3.3 2.7 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.8 Canada 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.8 3.4 3.2 3.0 3.3 Poland 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.3 Italy 0.1 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 Others 3.4 7.1 14.2 28.4 40.5 43.7 44.2 45.5 47.9 World 10.0 15.7 30.3 59.9 67.0 74.2 76.1 79.1 84.6 Woodpulp: Production United States 37.3 46.2 57.2 57.8 50.9 50.1 49.4 49.5 49.2 Brazil 0.8 3.4 4.3 7.3 14.5 16.8 17.8 19.4 20.2 Canada 16.6 19.9 23.0 26.7 18.9 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.8 China 1.1 1.1 1.7 3.3 9.2 11.0 11.0 11.8 12.2 Sweden 8.1 8.7 10.2 11.5 11.9 11.5 11.6 11.6 12.2 Finland 6.2 7.2 8.9 12.0 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.9 10.8 China 1.2 1.3 2.1 3.7 7.5 9.1 8.9 8.8 8.9 Japan 8.8 9.8 11.3 11.4 9.5 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.5 Russia 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 7.4 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.7 Others 21.4 28.0 36.1 31.6 30.4 36.6 36.4 37.2 37.4 World 101.6 125.7 154.8 171.2 170.7 177.2 177.4 181.3 184.0 Woodpulp: Imports China 0.1 0.4 0.9 4.0 12.1 17.9 19.8 21.0 23.7 United States 3.2 3.7 4.4 6.6 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.6 5.4 Germany 1.8 2.6 3.7 4.1 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.8 Italy 1.4 1.8 2.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 Korea, Rep. 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 France 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.4 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 Japan 0.9 2.2 2.9 3.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 Others 7.6 7.6 8.2 11.5 15.3 20.5 20.9 22.2 World 16.6 20.6 25.2 37.8 47.9 58.4 60.3 62.8 Source: FAO (January 10, 2019 update). Note: Wood-based panels, reported in cubic meters solid volume, is an aggregate comprising veneer sheets, plywood, particle board and fiberboard. Woodpulp, reported in metric tons air-dry weight (i.e. with 10% moisture content), is an aggregate comprising mechanical woodpulp; semi-chemical woodpulp; chemical woodpulp; and dissolving woodpulp. 70 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Tin Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 (thousand metric tons) Mine Production China n/a 16.0 40.0 85.0 129.6 110.2 97.2 93.4 157.5 Indonesia 19.1 32.5 40.0 51.6 92.3 71.3 66.4 83.2 84.0 Myanmar 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 54.0 57.0 68.0 45.9 Peru 0.1 1.1 5.1 37.4 33.8 19.5 18.8 17.8 18.6 Brazil 3.6 6.9 39.1 14.2 10.4 18.9 15.2 13.9 18.0 Bolivia 28.9 27.3 17.2 12.5 20.2 20.1 17.5 18.3 16.9 Congo, Dem. Rep. 6.5 n/a n/a 1.8 6.7 4.6 6.5 7.0 9.0 Australia 8.8 11.6 7.4 9.1 18.3 7.2 6.6 7.0 6.8 Vietnam n/a n/a 0.8 1.8 5.4 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.6 Malaysia 73.8 61.4 28.5 6.3 2.7 4.1 4.2 4.8 4.0 Nigeria 8.0 2.7 0.3 2.8 1.3 2.3 3.4 6.6 3.6 Rwanda 1.4 2.9 0.7 0.4 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.6 2.4 Russia n/a n/a n/a 6.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 1.0 n/a Others n/a n/a n/a 19.1 3.6 -9.9 1.6 5.7 2.6 World 184.3 228.1 210.6 249.0 328.0 310.3 302.2 334.8 373.9 Refined Production China 20.0 16.0 35.8 110.2 149.0 167.2 182.5 182.2 177.7 Indonesia 5.2 30.5 30.4 46.4 64.2 67.4 50.0 70.0 78.5 Malaysia 92.1 71.3 49.0 26.2 38.7 30.2 26.8 27.2 27.2 Brazil 3.1 8.8 37.6 13.8 9.1 16.5 18.0 18.0 18.4 Peru n/a n/a n/a 17.4 36.5 20.4 19.4 17.9 18.3 Bolivia n/a 17.5 13.4 9.4 15.0 15.5 16.8 16.1 14.6 Thailand 22.0 34.7 15.5 17.1 23.6 10.5 11.1 10.6 10.9 Belgium 4.3 2.8 6.1 8.5 9.9 8.8 8.5 9.7 9.3 Vietnam 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 3.0 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 Poland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.9 3.4 3.8 Japan 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 Nigeria 8.1 2.7 0.3 2.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Argentina 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a Others 48.0 46.3 36.7 6.4 0.7 2.1 13.7 8.0 0.0 World 204.2 232.2 227.5 260.7 351.8 347.5 356.3 369.8 365.3 Refined Consumption China 13 12.5 25.5 49.1 154.3 176.3 191.4 183.4 174.2 United States 53.8 46.5 36.8 51.0 32.0 31.4 29.5 31.5 34.7 Japan 28.6 30.9 34.8 25.2 35.7 26.8 26.1 29.1 28.1 Germany 17.3 19.0 21.7 20.7 17.4 17.9 18.2 20.0 20.2 Korea, Rep. 0.4 1.8 7.8 15.3 17.4 13.1 14.2 13.1 13.9 India 4.8 2.3 2.3 6.4 10.7 8.7 9.1 10.0 11.4 Brazil 2.5 4.7 6.1 7.2 8.7 11.0 11.3 10.0 9.4 France 10.5 10.1 8.3 7.3 5.4 4.4 4.7 5.5 6.1 Spain 3 4.6 4.0 4.1 6.1 5.7 6.5 5.5 6.0 Others 91.9 90.5 90.3 90.5 81.0 70.1 71.1 73.0 76.5 World 225.8 222.9 237.6 276.9 368.8 365.2 382.1 381.1 380.4 Source: British Geological Survey, Metallgesellschaft, U.S. Geological Survey, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, World Bank. Note: n/a implies data not available. Refined production and consumption include significant recycled material. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX B 71 Wheat Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 2000/01 2010/11 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 (million metric tons) Production European Union 62.5 93.3 125.0 132.7 136.7 160.5 145.4 151.3 137.6 China 29.2 55.2 98.2 99.6 115.2 132.6 133.3 134.3 131.4 India 20.1 31.8 49.9 76.4 80.8 86.5 87.0 98.5 99.7 Russia 0.0 0.0 49.6 34.5 41.5 61.0 72.5 85.2 71.7 United States 36.8 64.8 74.3 60.6 58.9 56.1 62.8 47.4 51.3 Canada 9.0 19.3 32.1 26.5 23.3 27.6 32.1 30.0 31.8 Pakistan 7.3 10.9 14.4 21.1 23.3 25.1 25.6 26.7 25.5 Ukraine 0.0 0.0 30.4 10.2 16.8 27.3 26.8 27.0 25.1 Argentina 4.9 7.8 11.0 16.3 17.2 11.3 18.4 18.5 19.5 Turkey 8.0 13.0 16.0 18.0 17.0 19.5 17.3 21.0 19.0 Australia 7.9 10.9 15.1 22.1 27.4 22.3 31.8 21.3 17.3 Others 120.8 128.9 72.8 64.7 91.6 108.5 103.4 102.1 103.0 World 306.5 435.9 588.8 582.8 649.7 738.4 756.4 763.2 732.9 Stocks China 7.2 31.7 49.9 91.9 59.1 97.0 114.9 131.3 140.0 United States 22.4 26.9 23.6 23.8 23.5 26.6 32.1 29.9 29.6 India 5.0 4.0 5.8 21.5 15.4 14.5 9.8 13.2 17.5 European Union 8.6 13.0 22.5 17.9 11.9 15.5 10.7 14.1 10.7 Russia n/a n/a 16.4 1.5 13.7 5.6 10.8 12.0 6.7 Iran 0.7 1.2 3.2 2.9 2.9 11.2 10.4 8.1 6.3 Morocco 0.1 0.5 0.6 1.4 2.8 7.0 4.9 5.1 5.5 Others 36.6 35.4 48.8 45.2 69.7 67.7 68.6 68.2 59.3 World 80.5 112.6 170.9 206.1 198.9 245.0 262.3 281.9 275.6 Exports Russia n/a n/a 1.2 0.7 4.0 25.5 27.8 41.4 37.0 United States 20.2 41.2 29.1 28.9 35.1 21.2 28.6 24.5 25.7 Canada 11.8 16.3 21.7 17.3 16.6 22.1 20.2 22.0 24.0 European Union 6.7 17.5 23.8 15.7 23.1 34.8 27.4 23.3 24.0 Ukraine 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.1 4.3 17.4 18.1 17.8 16.5 Argentina 1.0 3.8 5.6 11.3 9.5 9.6 13.8 12.2 13.7 Australia 9.1 9.6 11.8 15.9 18.6 16.1 22.6 13.8 10.0 Others 7.6 1.7 8.6 11.2 21.9 26.1 24.8 26.3 27.5 World 56.5 90.1 103.8 101.2 133.0 172.8 183.4 181.2 178.5 Imports Egypt 2.8 5.4 5.7 6.1 10.6 11.9 11.2 12.4 12.5 Indonesia 0.5 1.2 2.0 4.1 6.6 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.5 Brazil 1.7 3.9 4.4 7.2 6.7 6.7 7.3 7.0 7.5 Algeria 0.6 2.3 4.4 5.6 6.5 8.2 8.4 8.2 7.4 Philippines 0.6 0.9 1.5 3.1 3.2 4.9 5.7 6.0 7.0 European Union n/a n/a n/a 3.5 4.6 6.9 5.3 5.8 6.0 Japan 4.8 5.8 5.6 5.9 5.9 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.8 Others 44.8 69.9 75.4 64.0 87.9 115.3 125.1 123.1 118.9 World 55.8 89.5 99.0 99.3 132.0 169.8 179.2 178.9 175.6 Source: USDA (April 9, 2019 update). Note: The trade year is January-December of the later year of the split. For example, 1970/71 refers to calendar year 1971. 'n/a' implies not available. European Union includes EU-15 for 1980/81, 1990/91, 2000/01 and EU-28 for 2010-2018. 72 AP P E N DIX B C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Zinc Source: See World Bank Commodities Price Data. Source: World Bank. Note: Last observation is March 2019. Note: 2019-30 are forecasts. Download data and charts. Download data and charts. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 (thousand metric tons) Mine Production China 100 150 750 1,780 3,842 4,749 4,711 5,000 4,193 Peru 299 488 584 910 1,470 1,421 1,337 1,473 1,475 Australia 487 495 933 1,419 1,475 1,610 884 841 1,068 United States 485 317 543 852 748 825 805 730 790 India 8 32 70 199 730 741 682 784 696 Mexico 263 238 322 393 570 680 662 671 637 Bolivia 46 50 104 149 411 442 487 504 583 Turkey 24 23 39 48 196 174 202 365 368 Kazakhstan n/a n/a n/a 322 454 384 366 375 359 Canada 1,253 1,059 1,203 1,002 649 290 301 344 286 Russia n/a n/a n/a 136 214 206 220 279 279 Algeria 17 8 4 6 n/a 25 165 250 250 Sweden 93 176 164 177 199 247 258 251 234 Others n/a n/a n/a 1,414 1,531 1,594 1,471 631 1,621 World 5359 6,189 7,117 8,807 12,489 13,387 12,550 12,499 12,837 Refined Production China 100 155 550 1,957 5,209 6,116 6,196 6,220 5,681 Korea, Rep. 2 79 257 475 750 940 1,009 962 1,099 India 23 44 79 204 740 759 672 791 776 Canada 413 592 592 780 691 683 691 598 696 Japan 676 735 687 654 574 567 534 524 521 Spain 89 152 253 391 517 509 507 510 510 Australia 261 306 303 498 499 489 464 462 500 Peru 71 64 118 200 223 335 342 312 334 Mexico 85 145 199 235 328 327 321 327 333 Kazakhstan n/a n/a n/a 263 319 324 326 329 329 Finland 57 147 163 223 307 306 291 285 295 Belgium 241 249 300 264 260 260 236 249 275 Netherlands 47 170 209 217 264 291 283 248 275 Others n/a n/a n/a 2,710 2,228 1,957 1,917 1,897 1,777 World 5095 6183 6971 9070 12910 13862 13788 13715 13,400 Refined Consumption China 150 200 369 1,402 5,350 6,448 6,484 6,965 6,179 United States 1074 810 992 1,315 907 931 789 829 880 Korea, Rep. 11 68 230 419 540 585 627 716 716 India 97 95 135 224 538 616 676 653 714 Japan 623 752 814 674 516 479 474 482 529 Germany 448 474 530 532 494 479 483 452 440 Spain 77 91 119 195 206 219 270 217 287 Turkey 9 12 53 92 182 230 231 267 248 Italy 178 236 270 348 339 259 261 220 222 Others 2,375 3,393 3,056 3,689 3,460 3,529 3,503 3,408 3,115 World 5042 6,131 6,568 8,889 12,532 13,774 13,799 14,209 13,330 Source: British Geological Survey, Metallgesellschaft, U.S. Geological Survey, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, World Bank. Note: n/a implies data not available. APPENDIX C Description of price series Technical notes C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX C 75 Description of price series Tea (Mombasa/Nairobi). African origin, all tea, arithmetic average of weekly quotes. Energy Oils and meals Coal (Australia). Thermal, f.o.b. Newcastle, 6,000 kcal/kg, spot price. Coconut oil (Philippines/Indonesia). crude, c.i.f. NW Europe. Coal (South Africa). f.o.b Richards Bay, NAR, 6000 kcal/kg, sulfur less than 1%, forward month Groundnuts (US), Runners 40/50, CFR N.W. one. Europe Crude oil. Average price of Brent (38° API), Groundnut oil. US crude, FOB South-East. Dubai Fateh (32° API), and West Texas Fishmeal. German, 64% protein, EXW Hamburg. Intermediate (WTI, 40° API). Equally weighed. Palm oil (Malaysia). RBD, c.i.f Rotterdam. Natural Gas Index (Laspeyres). Weights based on five-year consumption volumes for Europe, U.S. Palmkernel Oil (Indonesia/Malaysia). Crude, c.i.f. and Japan (LNG), updated every five years. NW Europe. Natural gas (Europe), Netherlands Title Transfer Soybean meal. Brazilian pellets 48% protein, c.i.f Facility (TTF). Rotterdam. Natural gas (U.S.). Spot price at Henry Hub, Soybean oil. Dutch crude, degummed, f.o.b. NW Louisiana. Europe. Natural gas (Japan). LNG, import price, cif; Soybeans. US No. 2 yellow meal, c.i.f. Rotterdam. recent two months' averages are estimates. Grains Non-Energy Barley (U.S.). Feed, No. 2, spot, 20-days-to- arrive, delivered Minneapolis. Beverages Maize (U.S.). No. 2, yellow, f.o.b. US Gulf ports. Cocoa (ICCO). International Cocoa Organisation daily price, average of the first three positions on Rice (Thailand). 5% broken, white rice (WR), the terminal markets of New York and London, milled, indicative price based on weekly surveys of nearest three future trading months. export transactions, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok. Coffee (ICO). International Coffee Organization indicator price, other mild Arabicas, average New Rice (Thailand). 25% broken, WR, milled York and Bremen/Hamburg markets, ex-dock. indicative survey price, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok. Coffee (ICO). International Coffee Organization indicator price, Robustas, average New York and Rice (Thailand). 100% broken, A.1 Super, Le Havre/Marseilles markets, ex-dock. indicative survey price, government standard, f.o.b. Bangkok. Tea. Average three auctions, arithmetic average of quotations at Kolkata, Colombo, and Mombasa/ Rice (Vietnam). 5% broken, WR, milled, weekly Nairobi. indicative survey price, minimum export price, Tea (Colombo). Sri Lankan origin, all tea, f.o.b. Hanoi. arithmetic average of weekly quotes. Sorghum (U.S.). No. 2 milo yellow, f.o.b. Gulf Tea (Kolkata). leaf, include excise duty, arithmetic ports. average of weekly quotes. Wheat (U.S.). No. 1, hard red winter (HRW), 76 AP P E N DIX C C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 ordinary protein, export price delivered at the US Plywood (Africa and Southeast Asia). Lauan, 3- Gulf port for prompt or 30 days shipment. ply, extra, 91 cm x 182 cm x 4 mm, wholesale price, spot Tokyo. Wheat (U.S.). No. 2, soft red winter (SRW), export price delivered at the U.S. Gulf port for Sawnwood (West Africa). Sapele, width 6 inches prompt or 30 days shipment. or more, length 6 feet or more, f.a.s. Cameroonian ports. Other food Sawnwood (Southeast Asia). Malaysian dark red Bananas (Central and South America). Major seraya/meranti, select and better quality, average 7 brands, free on truck (f.o.t.) Southern Europe, to 8 inches; length average 12 to 14 inches; including duties. thickness 1 to 2 inches; kiln dry, c. & f. U.K. ports, with 5% agents commission including Bananas (Central and South America). Major premium for products of certified sustainable brands, U.S. import price, f.o.t. U.S. Gulf ports. forest. Meat, beef (Australia/New Zealand). Chucks and Woodpulp (Sweden). Softwood, sulphate, cow forequarters, frozen boneless, 85% chemical bleached, air-dry weight, c.i.f. North Sea ports. lean, c.i.f. U.S. port (east coast), ex-dock. Meat, chicken (U.S.). Urner Barry North East Other raw materials weighted average for broiler/fryer, whole birds, 2 - Cotton (Cotlook “A” index). Middling 1-3/32 1/2 to 3.5 pounds, USDA grade "A". inch, traded in Far East, C/F. Meat, sheep (New Zealand). Frozen whole Rubber (Asia). RSS3 grade, Singapore carcasses Prime Medium (PM) wholesale, Commodity Exchange Ltd (SICOM) nearby Smithfield, London. contract. Oranges (Mediterranean exporters). Navel, EEC Rubber (Asia). TSR 20, Technically Specified indicative import price, c.i.f. Paris. Rubber, SICOM nearby contract. Shrimp (U.S.). brown, shell-on, headless, in frozen blocks, source Gulf of Mexico, 26 to 30 Fertilizers count per pound, wholesale US. DAP (diammonium phosphate), spot, f.o.b. U.S. Sugar (EU). European Union negotiated import Gulf. price for raw unpackaged sugar from African, Phosphate rock , f.o.b. North Africa. Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP), c.i.f. European ports. Potassium chloride (muriate of potash), spot, f.o.b. Vancouver. Sugar (U.S.). Nearby futures contract, c.i.f. Sugar (world). International Sugar Agreement TSP (triple superphosphate), spot, import U.S. (ISA) daily price, raw, f.o.b. and stowed at greater Gulf. Caribbean ports. Urea (Ukraine), f.o.b. Black Sea. Timber Metals and minerals Logs (West Africa). Sapele, high quality (loyal and Aluminum (LME). London Metal Exchange, marchand), 80 centimeter or more, f.o.b. Douala, unalloyed primary ingots, standard high grade, Cameroon. physical settlement. Logs (Southeast Asia). Meranti, Sarawak, Copper (LME). Standard grade A, cathodes and Malaysia, sale price charged by importers, Tokyo. wire bar shapes, physical settlement. C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX C 77 Iron ore (any origin). Fines, spot price, c.f.r. Precious Metals China, 62% Fe. Gold (U.K.). 99.5% fine, London afternoon Lead (LME). Refined, standard high grade, fixing, average of daily rates. physical settlement. Platinum (U.K.). 99.9% refined, London Nickel (LME). Cathodes, standard high grade, afternoon fixing. physical settlement. Silver (U.K.). 99.9% refined, London afternoon Tin (LME). Refined, standard high grade, fixing. physical settlement. Zinc (LME). Refined, standard special high grade, physical settlement. 78 AP P E N DIX C C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Technical Notes f.o.b. = free on board f.o.t. = free on truck Definitions and explanations kg = kilogram Constant prices are prices which are de ated by mb/d = million barrels per day the Manufacturers Unit Value Index (MUV). mmbtu = million British thermal units MUV is the unit value index in U.S. dollar terms of manufactures exported from fteen countries: mmt = million metric tons Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, France, India, mt = metric ton (1,000 kilograms) Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, South mtoe = millions of tonnes of oil equivalent Africa, Spain, ailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. toz = troy ounce Price indexes were computed by the Laspeyres formula. e Non-Energy Price Index is Acronyms comprised of 34 commodities. U.S. dollar prices AEs advanced economies of each commodity is weighted by 2002-2004 average export values. Base year reference for all DAP diammonium phosphate indexes is 2010. Countries included in indexes are EIA Energy Information Administration all low- and middle-income, according to World EU European Union Bank income classi cations. EMDEs Emerging markets and developing Price index weights. Trade data as of May 2008 economies comes from United Nations' Comtrade Database FAO Food and Agriculture Organization via the World Bank WITS system, Food and Agriculture Organization FAOSTAT Database, FRED Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis International Energy Agency Database, BP Economic Data Statistical Review, World Metal Statistics, World GDP gross domestic product Bureau of Metal Statistics, and World Bank sta estimates. e weights can be found in the table ICAC International Cotton Advisory on the next page. Committee IEA International Energy Agency Reporting period. Calendar vs. crop or marketing year refers to the span of the year. It is common in IFA International Fertilizer Industry many agricultural commodities to refer to Association production and other variables over a twelve- IRSG International Rubber Study Group month period that begins with harvest. A crop or LME London Metal Exchange marketing year will often di er by commodity and, in some cases, by country or region. LNG lique ed natural gas MOP muriate of potash, or potassium Abbreviations chloride $ = U.S. dollar MUV Manufacture Unit Value bbl = barrel NGLs Natural gas liquids bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day OECD Organisation of Economic Co- c.i.f. = cost, insurance, freight operation and Development c.f.r. = cost and freight OPEC Organization of the Petroleum cum = cubic meter Exporting Countries dmt = dry metric ton TSP triple superphosphate C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX C 79 USDA United States Department of International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA) Agriculture International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) WTI West Texas Intermediate International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) Data sources International Sugar Organization (ISO) Africa Tea Brokers Limited ISTA Mielke GmbH Oil World Agribusiness Intelligence from Informa Japan Lumber Journal Banana Market Review Kennedy Information LLC Baker Hughes Meat Trade Journal Bloomberg Metallgesellschaft BP Statistical Review O cial Statistics of Japan British Geological Survey Platinum and Palladium Survey Cotton Outlook Singapore Commodity Exchange Ltd Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Data Steel Statistical Yearbook (FRED) Tea Board India Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Tea Exporters Association Sri Lanka Intergovernmental Group on Bananas and Tropical Fruits omson Reuters Intergovernmental Group on Tea Urner Barry International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) International Co ee Organization (ICO) U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) International Cotton Advisory Committee U.S. Geological Survey (ICAC) World Bureau of Metal Statistics International Energy Agency (IEA) 80 AP P E N DIX C C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 Weights for commodity price indexes Commodity group Share of energy and non -energy indexes Share of sub -group indexes ENERGY 100.0 100.0 Coal 4.7 4.7 Crude Oil 84.6 84.6 Natural Gas 10.8 10.8 NON-ENERGY 100.0 Agriculture 64.9 Beverages 8.4 100.0 Coffee 3.8 45.7 Cocoa 3.1 36.9 Tea 1.5 17.4 Food 40.0 Grains 11.3 100.0 Rice 3.4 30.1 Wheat 2.8 25.2 Maize (includes sorghum) 4.6 40.7 Barley 0.5 4.1 Oils and meals 16.3 100.0 Soybeans 4.0 24.6 Soybean Oil 2.1 13.0 Soybean Meal 4.3 26.3 Palm Oil 4.9 30.2 Coconut Oil 0.5 3.1 Groundnut Oil (includes groundnuts) 0.5 2.8 Other food 12.4 100.0 Sugar 3.9 31.5 Bananas 1.9 15.7 Meat, beef 2.7 22.0 Meat, chicken 2.4 19.2 Oranges (includes orange junice) 1.4 11.6 Agricultural Raw Materials 16.5 Timber 8.6 100.0 Logs 1.9 22.1 Sawnwood 6.7 77.9 Other Raw Materials 7.9 100.0 Cotton 1.9 24.7 Natural Rubber 3.7 46.7 Tobacco 2.3 28.7 Fertilizers 3.6 100.0 Natural Phosphate Rock 0.6 16.9 Phosphate 0.8 21.7 Potassium 0.7 20.1 Nitogenous 1.5 41.3 Metals and Minerals 31.6 100.0 Aluminum 8.4 26.7 Copper 12.1 38.4 Iron Ore 6.0 18.9 Lead 0.6 1.8 Nickel 2.5 8.1 Tin 0.7 2.1 Zinc 1.3 4.1 PRECIOUS METALS 100.0 Gold 77.8 Silver 18.9 Platinum 3.3 C O M M O D I T Y M A R K E T S O U T LO O K | A P R I L 2 0 1 9 AP P E N DIX C 81 Commodity Markets Outlook: Selected Topics, 2011-18 Topics Date Food Price Shocks: Channels and Implications April 2019 The implications of tariffs for commodity markets October 2018 The changing of the guard: Shifts in commodity demand October 2018 Oil exporters: Policies and challenges April 2018 Investment weakness in commodity exporters January 2017 OPEC in historical context: Commodity agreements and market fundamentals October 2016 From energy prices to food prices: Moving in tandem? July 2016 Resource development in era of cheap commodities April 2016 Weak growth in emerging market economies: What does it imply for commodity markets? January 2016 Understanding El Niño: What does it mean for commodity markets? October 2015 Iran nuclear agreement: A game changer for energy markets? October 2015 How important are China and India in global commodity consumption? July 2015 Anatomy of the last four oil price crashes April 2015 Oil price plunge in perspective January 2015 The role of income growth in commodities October 2014 Price volatility for most commodities has returned to historical norms July 2014 The nature and causes of oil price volatility January 2014 A global energy market? July 2013 Global reserves, demand growth, and the “super cycle” hypothesis July 2013 The “energy revolution,” innovation, and the nature of substitution January 2013 Commodity prices: levels, volatility, and comovement January 2013 Which drivers matter most in food price movements? January 2013 Induced innovation, price divergence, and substitution June 2012 The role of emerging markets in commodity consumption June 2012 WTI-Brent price dislocation January 2012 Metals consumption in China and India January 2012 China, global metal demand, and the super -cycle hypothesis June 2011 ECO-AUDIT Environmental Benefits Statement The World Bank Group is committed to reducing its environmental footprint. In support of this commitment, we leverage electronic publishing options and print-on-demand technology, which is located in regional hubs worldwide. Together, these initiatives enable print runs to be lowered and shipping distances decreased, resulting in reduced paper consumption, chemical use, greenhouse gas emissions, and waste. We follow the recommended standards for paper use set by the Green Press Initiative. The majority of our books are printed on Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)-certified paper, with nearly all containing 50-100 percent recycled content. 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