Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD3269 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION PROJECT PAPER ON A PROPOSED ADDITIONAL CREDIT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 103.2 MILLION (US$142.0 MILLION EQUIVALENT) AND A RESTRUCTURING TO THE REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA FOR A GIRLS' EDUCATION AND WOMEN'S EMPOWERMENT AND LIVELIHOOD PROJECT (GEWEL) February 28, 2020 Social Protection and Labor Global Practice Africa Region This document is being made publicly available prior to Board consideration. This does not imply a presumed outcome. This document may be updated following Board consideration and the updated document will be made publicly available in accordance with the Bank’s policy on Access to Information. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective January 31, 2020) Currency Unit = New Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) SDR 0.72624278 = US$1 US$ 1.37695 = SDR 1 ZMW 14.673514 = US$1 US$ 0.06815 = ZMW 1 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 7NDP Seventh National Development Plan ACC Area Coordinating Committee AF Additional Financing ALMP Active Labor Market Programs AG Auditor General AWP Annual Work Plan BOZ Bank of Zambia CPF Country Partnership Framework CWAC Community Welfare Assistance Committee DA Designated Account DCD Department of Community Development DFID U.K. Department for International Development DHS Demographic and Health Survey DSW Department of Social Welfare DSWO District Social Welfare Office DWAC District Welfare Assistance Committee e-GP e-Government Procurement EMIS Education Management Information System FM Financial Management FMA Financial Management Assessment FMR Financial Management Report FMT Financial Management Team GBV Gender-Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GEWEL Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project GRZ Government of the Republic of Zambia GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism GRS Grievance Redress Service HABP Household Asset Building Program HCI Human Capital Index HQ Headquarters IFBSP Integrated Framework of Basic Social Protection Programmes IFMIS Integrated Financial Management Information System IFR Interim Financial Report IPF Investment Project Financing IPSAS International Public Sector Accounting Standard ISR Implementation Status and Results Report ISSB Institutional Strengthening and Systems Building KGS Keeping Girls in School LCMS Living Conditions Monitoring Survey M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MCDSS Ministry of Community Development and Social Services MIS Management Information System MOG Ministry of Gender MOGE Ministry of General Education NGO Nongovernmental Organization OAG Office of the Auditor General OIB Open International Bidding OVC Orphans and Vulnerable Children PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective PE Procuring Entity PIM Project Implementation Manual PIU Project Implementation Unit POM Project Operations Manual PPA Public Procurement Act PPM Paypoint Manager PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development PRAMS Procurement Risk Assessment and Management System PSNP Productive Safety Net Program PSP Payment Service Provider PSWO Provincial Social Welfare Officer PTA Parent-Teacher Association SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SCT Social Cash Transfer SEA Sexual Exploitation and Abuse SIDA Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency SPD Standard Procurement Document SRB Single Registry of Beneficiaries SRH Sexual and Reproductive Health STEP Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement SWL Supporting Women’s Livelihood TOR Terms of Reference TUP Transfers to the Ultra-Poor UCT Unconditional Cash Transfer UN United Nations UNICEF United Nations Children's Fund VFM Value for Money ZEEP Zambia Education Enhancement Project ZISPIS Zambia Integrated Social Protection Information System ZPPA Zambia Public Procurement Authority Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Mara K. Warwick Regional Director: Dena Ringold Practice Manager: Robert S. Chase Task Team Leaders: Sarah Coll-Black Emma Sameh Wadie Hobson Zambia Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) TABLE OF CONTENTS I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING ........................................ 7 II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING AND RESTUCTURING ................................... 15 III. KEY RISKS ..................................................................................................................... 23 IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 24 V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS .............................................................................. 31 VI SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES ..................................................................................... 32 VII DETAILED CHANGE(S) .................................................................................................... 32 VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................................... 37 ANNEX 1: CHANGES TO IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ............................................... 51 ANNEX 2: GOVERNANCE ...................................................................................................... 55 ANNEX 3: STATUS OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................... 70 ANNEX 4: ECONOMIC APPRAISAL ........................................................................................ 73 ANNEX 5: SOCIAL ASSESSMENT ACTION PLAN ...................................................................... 91 ANNEX 6. INDICATIVE BUDGET TO BE FURTHER REFINED THROUGH ANNUAL PLANNING PROCESS ............................................................................................................................. 92 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) BASIC INFORMATION – PARENT (Girls Education and Womens Empowerment and Livelihood Project - P151451) Country Product Line Team Leader(s) Zambia IBRD/IDA Emma Sameh Wadie Hobson Project ID Financing Instrument Resp CC Req CC Practice Area (Lead) P151451 Investment Project HAFS1 (9340) AFCE1 (6541) Social Protection & Jobs Financing Implementing Agency: Ministry of Community Development and Social Services (MCDSS), Ministry of Gender (MoG), Ministry of General Education (MoGE) ADD_FIN_TBL1 Is this a regionally tagged project? No Bank/IFC Collaboration No Expected Original Environmental Approval Date Closing Date Guarantee Current EA Category Assessment Category Expiration Date 22-May-2015 30-Sep-2020 Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Financing & Implementation Modalities Parent [ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach [MPA] [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Disbursement-Linked Indicators (DLIs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) Page 1 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Development Objective(s) The project development objective is to support the Government of Zambia to increase access to livelihood support for women and access to secondary education for disadvantaged adolescent girls in extremely poor households in selected districts. Ratings (from Parent ISR) RATING_DRAFT_ NO Implementation Latest ISR 16-May-2017 06-Dec-2017 27-Jun-2018 21-Dec-2018 14-Jun-2019 23-Dec-2019 Progress towards achievement of MS MS S S S S PDO Overall Implementation MS MS MS MS MS MS Progress (IP) Overall Safeguards Rating Overall Risk S S M M M S BASIC INFORMATION – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) - P169975) ADDFIN_TABLE Urgent Need or Capacity Project ID Project Name Additional Financing Type Constraints P169975 Additional Financing for Restructuring, Scale Up No Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) Financing instrument Product line Approval Date Investment Project IBRD/IDA 23-Mar-2020 Financing Projected Date of Full Bank/IFC Collaboration Page 2 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Disbursement 30-Aug-2024 No Is this a regionally tagged project? No Financing & Implementation Modalities Child [ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s) [ ] Disbursement-Linked Indicators (DLIs) [ ] Small State(s) [ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a Non-fragile Country [ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict [ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made disaster [ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC) Disbursement Summary (from Parent ISR) Net Source of Funds Total Disbursed Remaining Balance Disbursed Commitments IBRD % IDA 65.00 45.55 20.09 69 % Grants % PROJECT FINANCING DATA – ADDITIONAL FINANCING (Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) - P169975) PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY -NewFi n1 SUMMARY (Total Financing) Proposed Additional Total Proposed Current Financing Financing Financing Total Project Cost 65.00 177.00 242.00 Page 3 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Total Financing 65.00 177.00 242.00 of which IBRD/IDA 65.00 142.00 207.00 Financing Gap 0.00 0.00 0.00 DETAILS - Additional Financing NewFinEnh1 World Bank Group Financing International Development Association (IDA) 142.00 IDA Credit 142.00 Non-World Bank Group Financing Other Sources 35.00 UK: British Department for International Development (DFID) 21.50 SWEDEN: Swedish Intl. Dev. Cooperation Agency (SIDA) 13.50 IDA Resources (in US$, Millions) Credit Amount Grant Amount Guarantee Amount Total Amount Zambia 142.00 0.00 0.00 142.00 National PBA 142.00 0.00 0.00 142.00 Total 142.00 0.00 0.00 142.00 COMPLIANCE Policy Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No Does the project require any other Policy waiver(s)? [ ] Yes [ ✔ ] No Page 4 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) INSTITUTIONAL DATA Practice Area (Lead) Social Protection & Jobs Contributing Practice Areas Education Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Social Climate Change and Disaster Screening This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks PROJECT TEAM Bank Staff Name Role Specialization Unit Team Leader (ADM Sarah Coll-Black HECSP Responsible) Emma Sameh Wadie Team Leader HAFS1 Hobson Procurement Specialist (ADM Wedex Ilunga Procurement EA1RU Responsible) Eliot Kalinda Procurement Specialist Procurement EA1RU Financial Management Lingson Chikoti Financial Management EA1G1 Specialist (ADM Responsible) Financial Management Baison Banda Financial Management EA1G1 Specialist Environmental Specialist (ADM Brandon Enrique Carter Environment SAFE3 Responsible) Social Specialist (ADM Njavwa Namposya Chilufya Social Specialist SAFS3 Responsible) Abidemi Yvonne Coker Team Member HAFS3 Boban Varghese Paul Team Member HAFS1 Charity Inonge Mbangweta Team Member HAFS3 Craig Patrick Kilfoil Team Member HAFS3 George Ferreira Da Silva Team Member WFACS Page 5 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Ioana Alexandra Botea Team Member HAFS3 Jorge Luis Alva-Luperdi Counsel LEGAM Kudakwashe Dube Team Member Social Safeguards SAFS3 Laura Campbell Team Member HAFS1 Mupuwaliywa Team Member HAFE1 Mupuwaliywa Nalin Jena Team Member HAFE1 Natalie Ann Jackson Team Member HAFS1 Pamela Chebiwott Tuiyott Team Member GBV SAFS3 Uzma Khalil Team Member EA1F2 Wisdom E. Mulenga Team Member AFMZM Extended Team Name Title Organization Location Page 6 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) I. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR ADDITIONAL FINANCING A. Introduction 1. This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Executive Directors to restructure and provide Additional Financing (AF) for the Girls’ Education and Women’s Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL, P151451) in the form of an additional IDA Credit in the amount of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) 103.2 million (US$142 million equivalent) to the Republic of Zambia. 2. The proposed AF and restructuring aim to deepen and widen the human capital impacts of GEWEL by expanding coverage and providing more complementary support to poor women and girls. GEWEL supports the achievement of human capital outcomes through educating, employing, and empowering women and adolescent girls from the poorest households. The AF and restructuring will enhance this impact by: (a) Changing component and financing to: (i) expand the Keeping Girls in School (KGS) and Supporting Women’s Livelihoods (SWL) components to additional beneficiaries; (ii) add a subcomponent under KGS to strengthen the Government’s social cash transfer (SCT); and, (iii) introduce a more concerted approach to prevent, mitigate, and respond to Gender-based Violence (GBV) risks, with complimentary interventions within the Bank’s health and education projects. (b) Revising the program targets in the Results Framework and adding new indicators; (c) Changing the environmental assessment category to B; (d) Extending the closing date from September 30, 2020 to April 30, 2024. (e) Adopting the ‘World Bank Procurement Regulations for Investment Project Financing (IPF) for Borrowers: Procurement for Goods, Works, Non-Consulting and Consulting Services’, dated July 2016 and revised in November 2017 and August 2018 for the parent project and AF. B. Project Implementation Status 3. GEWEL is a well performing project which is on track to meet its Project Development Objective. GEWEL aims to support the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) to increase access to livelihood support for women and access to secondary education for disadvantaged adolescent girls in extremely poor households in selected districts. This IDA-funded project in the amount of US$65 million was approved in May 2015, became effective in April 2016 and is currently scheduled to close on September 30, 2020. To date, after 3.5 years of implementation, the project disbursement rate under IDA financing is 69 percent. 4. Progress toward achievement of the PDO has been rated Moderately Satisfactory or above. All PDO indicators are either on track to be met or have exceeded their targets, showing that GEWEL has contributed towards increasing the school enrollment of adolescent girls from poor households and Page 7 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) improving the livelihoods of poor women. More than half of all intermediate indicators are also either on track or exceed their targets. Data for one intermediate indicator are not yet available and two of them are lagging; these are being closely followed up on to ensure that they are brought back on track. 5. Key progress results include1: 6. Component 1: Supporting Women’s Livelihoods, implemented by the Ministry of Community Development and Social Services (MCDSS), is on track to provide 75,000 women from extremely poor households with a package consisting of life and business skills training, a productive grant equivalent to US$225, mentorship, and support to form savings groups. As of October 2019, 32,497 beneficiaries of Phase 1 and Phase 2 have received the SWL package. Another 41,014 Phase 3 beneficiaries are scheduled to be enrolled in the project by the end of 2019. The SWL has made substantial investments in system strengthening and capacity building of the MCDSS. The impact of this component is being measured through a randomized impact evaluation. 7. Component 2: Keeping Girls in School, implemented by the Ministry of General Education (MOGE), provides school fees2 for 16,239 female secondary students across 16 districts in all 10 provinces, exceeding its original end-of-project target of 14,000. In 2019, the KGS is enrolling an additional 9,000 girls in 11 new districts. In parallel, the KGS has sought to strengthen systems to better support schools (through regular supervision visits to schools by district teams) and improve attendance rates of girls (through the design of an innovative case management system). MOGE has developed a KGS-MIS that hosts data from school enrolment to payments and will soon include all monitoring data from schools to allow for improved tracking of attendance, dropouts, and performance. To complement this, the Ministry is contracting a firm to carry out independent monitoring of schools and girls receiving KGS support. 8. Component 3: Institutional Strengthening and Systems Building has supported the Ministry of Gender (MOG) to (i) oversee and coordinate the project; and (ii) strengthen the national gender policy, which has included investments in the capacity of ministries to mainstream gender. This component has also supported the MCDSS to invest in its core social protection systems. Three distinct innovations are currently being implemented by the MCDSS through GEWEL: (a) an innovative choice-based electronic payment (e-payment) system, which allows SWL beneficiaries to choose their preferred payment service providers (PSPs), has been designed, piloted, and rolled out;3 (b) a Single Registry of Beneficiaries (SRB) to improve coherence and targeting across programs has been developed by the MCDSS and piloted in 17 districts;4 and, (c) a Single Window has been piloted in six districts, with the support of the World Bank, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), and the International Labour Organization, through which the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) intends to provide a one-stop shop for the delivery of social sector programs. 9. The project complies with key legal covenants, including financial and procurement obligations, and there is strong commitment to improve in lagging areas. The project financial reports are up-to-date, 1 Annex 2 provides more detailed information on GEWEL and its progress in implementation. 2 School fees also include fees for formal boarding schools managed by MOGE. 3 See Case Study on The Future of G2P Payments: Expanding Customer Choice in Zambia” by Silvia Baur-Yazbeck, Craig Kilfoil and Ioana Botea, CGAP Background Documents, March 2019, for more information. 4 GRZ is building on the SRB to develop an integrated program management system named Zambia Integrated Social Protection Information System (ZISPIS) Page 8 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) and the submissions have been satisfactory, although with some delays. There are no outstanding audits or overdue reports. On procurement, there has been strong commitment from the Government to continue to reduce administrative delays that have been affecting the efficiency of internal procurement processing and approvals. A timebound action plan on procurement has been put in place. 10. With regard to social and environmental safeguards, the project was rated Category C and no safeguards policies were triggered, whilst potential risks related to GBV were recently increased to substantial. The project is investing in activities that aim to improve the well-being of women and girls from the poorest households. Owing to the nature of planned project activities, it was not anticipated that the project would result in significant environmental and social risks. While the environmental and social risks were considered low, the social risk was recently upgraded to substantial in recognition of the potential significant risks related to GBV. This is against the backdrop of the project activities, which aim to support vulnerable young girls and women in selected districts across the country. Women and young girls, particularly those in rural areas, are at risk of experiencing sexual violence due to existing cultural norms and unequal power relations at household level. Participating in the project is expected to enhance their wellbeing, however, this may put them at an even greater risk with their male counterparts leading to sexual abuse or increased sexual violence. In anticipation of this risk, a study exploring how GEWEL may respond to the risks of GBV was carried-out by the World Bank at the request of the Government to ascertain the level of risk and propose mitigation measures to be implemented and to inform appropriate activities included under the proposed AF. 11. More immediately, in response to the findings of the study, a detailed GBV Action Plan to prevent, mitigate and respond to GBV risks was developed to be implemented by GEWEL, as part of a broader response through the World Bank’s human development projects, with close coordination between GEWEL and the World Bank-funded Zambia Education Enhancement Project (ZEEP, P158570) and the Zambia Health Services Improvement Project (P145335). The Action Plan further provides information on areas of strengthening client capacity to better coordinate, manage and respond to GBV risks. The proposed AF and restructuring aim to support the implementation of this plan, as detailed in the sections below. In addition, under the parent project, a Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) was developed to address complaints arising from the project. The GRM was piloted and is now being rolled-out progressively to all project districts. 12. The project disbursement rate has been increasing rapidly. Currently, the GEWEL disbursement ratio is 69 percent (equivalent to US$45.55 million of the US$65 million credit). While delays in declaring the project effective and a slow start to implementation resulted in initial low disbursement rates, these are now accelerating rapidly. There are no known significant fiduciary issues associated with the project. C. Rationale for Additional Financing Country Context 13. Zambia’s national poverty rate remains high with striking levels of inequality between rural and urban areas. While gross domestic product (GDP) growth raised average per capita income from US$2,378 in 2004 to US$3,627 in 2015, Zambia still faces high levels of poverty and inequality, with 54.4 percent of Page 9 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Zambians living below the national poverty line.5 While poverty in urban areas fell slightly from 25.7 to 23.4 percent over this period, rural poverty rose from 73.6 to 76.7 percent.6 Taking action toward reducing rural poverty and increasing income levels of the poorest in Zambia is therefore an urgent priority. 14. Zambia is particularly vulnerable to climate change, as its economy is dependent on natural resource and the majority of its population resides in rural areas. Zambia’s climate is highly variable, with extreme weather events, such as drought and flooding, becoming more frequent and intense with climate change. While climate change is not anticipated to increase the overall levels of rainfall in Zambia, it is projected to result in more frequent, severe rainfall periods and an average increase in temperature by 1.2-3.4 degrees Celsius by 2060. El Nino-induced droughts are increasingly common, affecting the southern half of Zambia. Such variability in the weather negatively impacts agriculture, with over sixty percent of the population of Zambia deriving its livelihood from agriculture. As a result, climate change is expected to exacerbate poverty by reducing the rate at which households escape poverty and moving those who are not poor into poverty.7 For example, in 2019, a severe drought affected much of the country, with maize production in Southern and Western provinces falling by over 50 percent and over 2.7 million people facing severe acute food insecurity or higher. 15. Human capital accumulation continues to be slow in Zambia. Although the country has achieved close to universal access to primary education, secondary school coverage has fallen since 2010 and is currently at only about 40 percent.8 Expected years of schooling in Zambia for a child starting school at age 4 years is only 9.2 years. As a result of these and other factors, Zambia’s Human Capital Index (HCI) is 0.4, which implies that children born today will only be 40 percent as productive as they would be if they enjoyed full educational and health attainment. Zambia’s HCI lags in the region and among other countries in its income group, suggesting that Zambia could make gains in its HCI through better ensuring that existing investments in health, education, and social protection reach poor and vulnerable households. 16. Women and girls are particularly vulnerable to lower human capital accumulation, which is exacerbated by high fertility and early pregnancy. Enrollment and retention in secondary school (grades 8–12) is a challenge nationally but more so among girls from poorer districts as only a quarter of them enroll in school, compared to one-third among boys from the same districts. Dropout rates among secondary school girls are also higher, especially in the poorer districts— almost double the rate for boys.9 Analysis shows that early pregnancy (47 percent), economic constraints (18 percent), and early marriage (13 percent) are major reasons why adolescent girls drop out of school.10 International evidence shows that achieving higher levels of education for girls can lead to lower fertility rates.11 Women and girls are also likely to be more adversely affected by climate change, as climate risks affect women and girls 5 At the national poverty line of ZMK 214 per adult equivalent per month. 6 World Bank. 2018. Zambia Systematic Country Diagnostic. Report Number 124032. 7 World Bank. 2015. Climate Change and Poverty. Climate Change and Poverty Conference 8 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) 2015. 9 Education MIS (EMIS) 2017. 10 2019 analysis of EMIS data. 11 See for example: Pradhan, Elina, and David Canning. 2015. The Effect of Schooling on Teenage Fertility: Evidence from the 1994 Education Reform in Ethiopia. Program on the Global Demography of Aging at Harvard University. Page 10 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) disproportionately more than men through direct loss of life but also through lower human capital accumulation and economic returns.12 17. Human capital outcomes are undermined by GBV in Zambia. According to the 2013-14 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), 43 percent of women age 15-49 have experienced physical violence at least once since age 15 and 37 percent experienced physical violence within the 12 months prior to the survey. Among adolescents, 13-17 years old, 17 percent of girls and 6 percent of boys had experienced sexual violence of some form in the last 12 months; almost 25 percent of girls, who reported being sexually active, said their first sexual experience was unwanted, while only 7 percent of boys reported the same.13 Small-scale studies have documented high levels of GBV in schools in Zambia. For example, a study in the Lusaka province found that 54 percent of students interviewed had personally experienced some form of sexual violence or harassment by a teacher, student, or men they encountered while travelling to and from school; and 84 percent of students interviewed reported that they had personally experienced such abuse or knew of classmates who had experienced it.14 These findings suggest that preventing and responding to GBV is central to advancing human capital in Zambia. Box 1 discusses GBV and the response of the Government and the World Bank in more detail. Box 1: The World Bank’s Human Development Response to Gender-Based Violence in Zambia Women and young girls, particularly those in rural areas, are at risk of experiencing sexual violence due to existing cultural norms and unequal power relations at household level. While participating in GEWEL is expected to enhance their wellbeing through improved educational outcomes and economic empowerment, it is possible this participation may put them at an even greater risk of sexual abuse or increased sexual violence. In anticipation of this risk, a study exploring how GEWEL may better respond to the risks of GBV was conducted to propose mitigation measures to be implemented and to inform appropriate activities included under the proposed Additional Financing. The GRZ has signed and ratified international and regional instruments and developed and enacted domestic laws, policies, and plans, creating a favorable legal and policy framework to promote gender equality and address GBV. GRZ and Cooperating Partners (CPs) are working together to prevent GBV and provide post-GBV services for survivors by strengthening existing institutional structures and providing a consolidated package of services through a United Nations Joint Program on GBV coordinated by MoG and two major GBV programs funded by CPs. Through the Department of Social Welfare, MCDSS is running in two district shelters for GBV survivors and strengthening the juvenile inspectorate services. MOGE is working with UNESCO and UNICEF to implement a comprehensive SRGBV action plan including the training of teachers on GBV sensitization, prevention, and response. In response to the findings of the study, a detailed Action Plan to mitigate and respond to GBV risks was developed and steady progress has already been made in its implementation. The proposed restructuring and Additional Financing aim to support the implementation of this plan. MOG and MOGE have implemented a number of key activities including: (a) developing minimum safety criteria for boarding facilities where KGS girls live and issued a directive to District and Provincial education offices stating that any facilities that do not meet the standards are upgraded or girls are offered the opportunity to move to facilities certified as safe; (b) significant progress on an accelerated roll out of a Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) to all KGS target Districts, including GBV sensitive measures and fast-tracking for GBV complaints; (c) updating the GBV referral pathway at District level, starting with existing KGS districts, in 12 Neumayer, Eric and Thomas Plümper. 2008. The gendered nature of natural disasters: the impact of catastrophic events on the gender gap in life expectancy, 1981–2002. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 13 Parkes et al., 2017, 14 Women and Law in Southern Africa Trust - Zambia et al., 2012. Page 11 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) collaboration with the UN; (d) finalizing enhanced M&E tools as well as initiated procurement of an external firm to conduct spot checks in KGS districts, including on safety of schools and presence of GRM; (e) initiating the design of a case management system to support girls at risk of dropping out or already dropped out; and, (f) inclusion of sessions on GBV in MOGE teacher training and training of over 700 teachers. GBV prevention and response activities implemented by GEWEL will be complemented by those of other World Bank funded human development projects, thereby creating a human development approach to GBV in Zambia . The Zambia Education Enhancement Project (ZEEP, P158570) and the Zambia Health Services Improvement Project (ZHSIP, P145335), together with GEWEL, will contribute to the Safe Schools Framework and its 5 key focus areas: Implementation, Enforcement, Reporting and Monitoring . In the short term (through the ongoing operations), the efforts of the three projects will focus on sensitization on codes of ethics for frontline service providers and roll out of GRMs that incorporate GBV sensitive measures; updating GBV referral pathways for selected districts and strengthening data and information systems on GBV. In the more medium term (through the new AFs/operations), ZEEP AF will work on strengthening the education system’s accountability for GBV prevention and responsiveness to GBV cases, the hea lth operation will focus on availability of GBV response services, and support to scaling up the One Stop Center model, while GEWEL will focus on measures aimed at vulnerable girls in schools, particularly the development of a case management system. Physical Environment. GEWEL will continue to focus on roll out of minimum safety standards and certification of boarding facilities where KGS girls reside as well as more robust monitoring systems. ZEEP AF will focus on building boarding facilities at selected secondary schools on a needs-basis; support safe passage to school through safe school plans; and provision of WASH facilities. Teachers, Education and Health Staff Training. In the short term, ZEEP is focusing on integration of GBV sessions into ongoing teacher training and ZHSIP is funding ongoing training in GBV to nurses and midwives as well as community- based service providers and volunteers. In the medium term, ZEEP AF will develop a full module on GBV and roll out training to teachers and school leadership and the forthcoming health operation will have a major focus on strengthening the link between the health and education systems at a local level. Social Norms, Community, Family and Parental Engagement . ZHSIP is working on orienting traditional leadership in issues of early marriage, teenage pregnancies and GBV. The GEWEL AF will develop and test a behavior change communication (BCC) intervention/life skills program for girls and boys in selected schools. ZEEP AF plans to scale up this BCC intervention together with the development of safe school plans. The health operation also plans to work on changing cultural and social norms as regards adolescents’ SRH through collaboration of schools and the local public health system. It will also focus on enhanced caregiving and parenting through integrating counselling on responsive caregiving. Student Sensitization and Participation. In the short term, sensitization efforts to students (as well as teachers and community members) will be undertaken as part of the roll out of the GEWEL and ZEEP GRMS. ZEEP AF will further focus on dissemination and increased delivery of the Comprehensive Sexuality Education Curriculum in order to enhance students’ knowledge of SRH. Implementation will be supported through the Bank-funded human development projects. These activities will be implemented by the Ministries of General Education and Health through the GEWEL, ZEEP and ZHSIP, with coordination by the Ministry of Gender. Resources to support these activities have been allocated through the projects and the proposed additional financing. Progress towards these activities will be reported upon through the regular supervision of these projects by the Bank. Page 12 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) 18. The Government is committed to responding to the gender gap in human capital development. The 7NDP (2017–2021) highlights the issue of secondary school dropout among girls and the need to ensure equitable and inclusive access to quality education under the Human Development Pillar. Under the Poverty and Vulnerability Reduction Pillar, the 7NDP outlines the GRZ’s aim to increase the coverage and targeting of social protection programs to enhance welfare and livelihoods of the poor and vulnerable. The GRZ’s request for this AF seeks to directly respond to low human capital outcomes among the poor in Zambia. Sectoral and Institutional Context 19. The GRZ has put in place a strong policy foundation to maximize the impact of social protection on reducing extreme poverty and promoting human capital development. This includes the GRZ’s National Social Protection Policy (2015–2019); a draft Social Protection Bill, which is expected to be enacted by Parliament; and, more recently, the Integrated Framework of Basic Social Protection Programmes (IFBSP) 2018, which moves the sector (a) in the direction of laying a floor (basic social assistance) together with ladder programming (livelihoods and empowerment) to achieve greater impact and (b) from programming in silos to a more complementary and comprehensive approach to reducing extreme poverty and promoting human capital development. The foundation of this ‘cash plus’ approach is the GRZ’s social safety net, the SCT, which provides regular cash transfers to smooth the consumption of extremely poor and vulnerable households and enable them to make human capital and livelihood investments through layered empowerment interventions, such as the KGS and SWL. A strong social protection programming is also deemed crucial to enable poor and vulnerable households, including women and girls, to cope with and adapt to adverse conditions imposed by climate risks, as the regular delivery of cash transfers can enable poor households to meet their basic needs during periods of drought, while investments in livelihoods can help the poor adapt to climate change. This was evidenced during the 2019 drought, when emergency cash transfers funded by Cooperating Partners were able to quickly reach SCT beneficiaries in the worst affected Districts, by harnessing the program’s infrastructure. 20. The GRZ has committed to reforming its fiscal expenditure through improved pro-poor spending, although coverage of key programs remains low in comparison to need. There is evidence that the GRZ’s fiscal policy has been regressive and impoverishing, with the poor paying more into the tax system than receiving benefits from it.15 This is due to the prevalence of highly regressive farm input, fuel, and electricity subsidies that disproportionately benefit the non-poor and the low coverage of social protection programs.16 The GRZ committed to reforming its fiscal expenditure by allocating greater fiscal space to pro-poor spending, which led to the tripling of the SCT caseload to help mitigate the impact of fuel subsidy reform, and the launch of GEWEL.17 Analysis shows that these investments are reaching the poorest: the SCT targeting has been found to be pro-poor, with similar results identified for the SWL and KGS.18 Despite this progress, spending on social 15 de la Fuente, Alejandro, Manuel Rosales, and Jon Jellema. 2017. “The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty in Zambia.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8246. 16 World Bank. 2018. Zambia Systematic Country Diagnostic. 17 Minister of Finance’s budget speech to the National Assembly, September 2018. The Government’s aim is to reach 700,000 beneficiaries in 2019 with further scale-up in subsequent years. 18 De la Fuente, Alejandro, Manuel Rosales, and Jon Jellema. 2017. “The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty in Zambia.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8246. Preliminary analysis of the EMIS data and the SWL randomized control trial baseline data show that the beneficiaries are indeed extremely poor. Page 13 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) protection is substantially below the Sub-Saharan African average, at 0.4 percent of GDP in 2017, compared to a regional average of 1.5 percent of GDP and the GRZ’s commitment to allocate 1.7 of GDP by 2021.19 21. Continued fragmentation among programs leads to inefficiencies in social protection expenditure and duplication of efforts. Recognizing the fragmentation of programs and programmatic systems, GEWEL aimed to support the GRZ to set up an SRB to improve targeting across social protection programs, which will now be taken forward through Zambia Integrated Social Protection Information System (ZISPIS). The use of a single targeting mechanism for all poverty-targeted programs is also envisioned. While GEWEL has significantly advanced these objectives (see section I.B and Annex 2), various other areas of fragmentation have emerged. For example, the SCT and SWL, despite being implemented by different departments within the MCDSS, have two different payment and information management systems. In addition, while the internal checks and balances exposed allegations of corruption in SCT payments (see paragraph 57), they also highlighted the need for strengthening of the payment system. This shows that further harmonization among social protection programs and delivery systems is needed. 22. Recent liquidity constraints have meant that GRZ fiscal commitments to social protection remain unmet, which is undermining the impacts of these programs for the poor. Despite its strong support to social protection and commitment to expanding the SCT, the GRZ has struggled to finance its budgetary allocations to SCT, particularly as Zambia is at high risk of debt distress. The resulting budgetary shortfalls and delayed releases of funds have undermined the ability of the SCT to provide timely and predictable transfers to targeted households.20 Yet, the predictability of transfers is critical for cash transfers to result in improved consumption, food security, and human capital.21 Beyond these immediate effects, the irregularity of SCT transfers threatens to weaken the impact of GEWEL, as evidence from other countries shows that productive investments are more likely to lead to the anticipated impacts when accompanied by consumption support. In parallel, MOGE recently reduced secondary school fees by close to 70 percent. While it is too early to see the full effects of this reform, it is likely that benefits for the poorest will be mixed, as many of these girls come from households that struggle to meet basic needs (including the informal costs of attending school). In fact, there is compelling evidence from other countries showing that eliminating secondary school fees has led to, at most, a negligible increase in the share of disadvantaged children progressing into and completing secondary schooling.22 This suggests that the regular provision of cash transfers will be an increasingly important form of support for adolescent girls from poor households to access secondary school. 23. The proposed AF is well aligned with the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Zambia, as well as the findings of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD). The CPF FY19–FY23 (Report No. 128467) envisions to “improve access to secondary education, health services, nutrition and social protection, with attention to girls and women in selected rural areas” (Objective 2.1 under Focus Area II). It highlights the need to invest in smart social protection (and thereby enhance the redistributive impact of fiscal and transfer policies) to reduce poverty and encourage labor market productivity in the informal sector. 19 Beegle, Kathleen, Aline Coudouel, and Emma Monsalve (eds). 2018. Realizing the Full Potential of Social Safety Nets in Africa. World Bank; Volume II of 7NDP. 20 Shortfalls in funding from the Government have been further exacerbated by the temporary suspension of donor funding in response to the allegations of corruption in the SCT. 21 Davis, Benjamin, Sudhanshu Handa, Nicola Hypher, Natalia Rossi, Paul Winters, and Jennifer Yablonski. 2016. “From Evidence to Action: The Story of Cash Transfers and Impact Evaluations in Sub-Saharan Africa”. FAO, UNICEF and Oxford University Press 22 Zubairi, Asma and Pauline Rose. 2019. Equitable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa. Background paper, Mastercard Foundation Page 14 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) It also stresses the need to close the gender gap in secondary schooling. The CPF focus is in response to the SCD for Zambia, which clearly shows that the fiscal policy environment in Zambia is not pro-poor. The SCD argues for a simultaneous reduction in subsidies and increase in social protection spending to reduce poverty and inequality. It also shows the need for improving access to secondary education for girls to break out of the vicious cycle of low educational attainment, early marriage, high fertility, poor jobs, and poverty, which continues intergenerationally. 24. The proposed AF and restructuring are designed to synergize and collocate investments with parallel World Bank investments in the education and health sectors. The Zambia Education Enhancement Project (ZEEP, P158570) and its proposed AF and the forthcoming new operation in the health sector, together with the GEWEL AF, are designed to provide a comprehensive package that can move the needle on Zambia’s HCI, including through a coordinated response to GBV. The GEWEL AF aims to support adolescent girls from the poorest households to meet the formal and informal costs of secondary schooling. This complements the ZEEP, which improves school infrastructure and facilities, education quality, and learning outcomes. The projects will be geographically collocated, to the extent possible, so that together they can contribute to the Zambia HCI indicator of increased learning-adjusted years of school and the Africa Human Capital Project targets of delayed pregnancy and reduced adolescent fertility and increased social protection coverage of the poorest quintile. II. DESCRIPTION OF ADDITIONAL FINANCING AND RESTUCTURING 25. The proposed AF and restructuring aim to deepen and widen the human capital impacts of GEWEL by expanding coverage and providing more complementary support to poor women and girls. This will be achieved by (a) financing the scale-up of the KGS and SWL components to additional beneficiaries, (b) introducing a subcomponent under the KGS component on strengthening social cash transfers (SCTs) to help reduce the dropout of girls from school due to economic reasons, (c) introducing a more concerted approach to mitigating and responding to the risks of GBV for women and girls in project areas; and (d) enhancing the focus on strengthening core social protection systems to better ensure the effective delivery of this support. To further maximize the impact, the GEWEL will coordinate closely the Bank’s human development projects. 26. The key elements of the proposed AF and restructuring include: 27. Results Framework. The proposed AF maintains the PDO of the parent project. The PDO will remain unchanged given (a) the focus of the AF to expand the coverage of the existing components of GEWEL and (b) that the proposal to incorporate support to the SCT as a new subcomponent under the KGS is to make sure that KGS beneficiaries are able to increase their access to secondary education as intended by ensuring that the SCT is delivering effective consumption support. 28. The Results Framework (RF) is modified to reflect the evolution in GEWEL: (a) the indicators for the current components are largely retained, with the targets increased to reflect the aim of expanding coverage, (b) a PDO-level indicator (Number of beneficiaries of SCT program) is added to measure progress related to the proposed new subcomponent under the KGS, with the associated intermediate target to assess progress in performance; and (c) three Intermediary-level indicator are added to track progress in updating the national referral pathways for GBV and the roll out of the GRM. Detailed revisions of RF are included in Section VIII. Page 15 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) 29. Components. The AF and restructuring proposed changes to each of the components compared with the parent project are described in the following paragraphs.23 30. Component 1: Supporting Women’s Livelihood (US$34.8 million, of which US$34.8 million IDA). This component will scale-up the SWL component to provide poor women from rural and peri-urban areas with opportunities to increase the productivity of their livelihood activities and economic empowerment. In line with the GRZ’s cash plus approach, beneficiaries will be eligible women from SCT households. 31. Given the progress made to date under this component, the design remains unchanged, with the following additions to enhance impacts. First, the skills training will be revised to incorporate sexual and reproductive health (SRH) content to enable beneficiaries to make better-informed fertility decisions and provide them with information on GBV. It will, therefore, respond to demands from SWL beneficiaries, most of whom with no formal education, to expand the scope of the training and include additional topics such as GBV, family planning, hygiene, and nutrition. Second, the SWL will engage husbands and male community members to mitigate GBV and foster support for women’s economic initiatives. Third, the GRM for the SWL will be rolled- out (as detailed in paragraph 49) and modified to include more information on and attention to GBV-related risks. Finally, the sequence of the package of support to women will be revised to start with support to form savings groups. This is believed to foster group cohesion and build savings behaviors more likely to persist after the productive grant is spent. The project operates in areas at a high risk of climate and geophysical hazards and thus enhances the adaptive capabilities of beneficiaries in the face of such risks. 32. The AF will fund the continued rollout of SWL activities in three phases. The rollout will capitalize on existing investments, while gradually expanding coverage to new districts. A total of 10 new districts will be included in the SWL over three phases, bringing the total number of districts to 81.24 The other 27 AF districts will be selected by province, based on poverty rates, before the launch of AF implementation. The project will continue to focus on rural districts only. Community Welfare Assistance Committees (CWACs) will be selected through district-level public lotteries among those not previously covered by the SWL and with a minimum number of SCT households eligible for SWL. The AF will scale-up the coverage of the SWL component from 75,000 to 129,400. 33. Given the increasing climate variability arising from climate change in Zambia, livelihood diversification is critical to building resilience, particularly for the poorest people who have the least ability to cope. SWL activities specifically address livelihoods diversification through the life and business skills training as well as the productive grant, which provides beneficiaries with both the coaching and financing needed to start new livelihoods activities. Beneficiaries have typically engaged in alternative livelihood activities such as drying fish, petty trading, poultry (a minority of beneficiaries), and operating grocery stores in local village in addition to staple maize crop production and small-scale plantation of some legumes and vegetables, which are highly dependent on having appropriate weather conditions. Mobilization of beneficiaries into savings groups, as part of SWL, has further opened-up an avenue for management of their financial resources and for group-based productive activities as some savings groups have upgraded themselves to registered 23 The financing allocations highlighted here relate solely to the proposed AF and do not include those in GEWEL. 24The three districts (Lusangazi, Chifunabuli, and Lupososhi) newly created from the original SWL districts (that is, Petauke, Samfya, and Luwingu, respectively) will be automatically selected for the first phase of the AF. No new districts, including any created from the 81 SWL districts, can subsequently be added as new SWL districts due to budget constraints. Page 16 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) cooperatives. In this way, the support from SWL to beneficiaries is anticipated to assist them to adapt to the ways in which climate change is anticipated to affect rural Zambia. 34. Component 2: Keeping Girls in School (AF US$139.2 million equivalent, of which US$102.7 million IDA, US$21.5 million DFID, and US$13.5 million SIDA). The proposed AF and restructuring aim to scale up the coverage of the KGS component, while deepening its impact by complementing the bursary support for adolescent girls through MOGE with (i) efforts to mitigate GBV risks in conjunction with ZEEP’s efforts to improve the accountability of the education system for GBV and rolling-out the safe school framework, and (ii) with cash transfers that would mitigate many of the other financial costs that prevent girls from completing their schooling. These changes are described in the following paragraphs. 35. Component 2a: Keeping Girls in School - Enhancing Access to Education (AF US$22.4 million of which US$15.9 million IDA, US$6.5 million SIDA). This subcomponent, which is managed by MOGE, will scale up to new districts and deepen its presence within existing districts. It will continue to pay the school fees (both formal boarding and day school fees) of adolescent girls from SCT households in the 27 existing districts and expand to 20 new districts. New districts will be selected based on the poverty ranking of districts.25 The project will continue to operate in existing districts to allow younger girls who are entering grade 8 each year to benefit from bursary support and for girls who have dropped out of secondary school to rejoin. Through the AF, the KGS component will reach an additional 29,520 beneficiaries, thereby scaling-up from the current 14,000 beneficiaries to 43,520. Sustaining the presence in existing districts will also enable MOGE to take advantage of the significant capacity investments that have been made in districts and schools. Additionally, the selection of girls for bursary support from the SCT will be reviewed to identify lessons learned to strengthen the targeting of the KGS to respond to concerns that MOGE has raised regarding the exclusion of orphans and vulnerable children (OVC). 36. Through this AF and restructuring, the KGS will seek to contribute to the efforts of ZEEP to strengthen the responsiveness of the education sector to GBV. ZEEP will lead on the system wide roll-out aspects of this response, with KGS supporting specific activities only in those schools where ZEEP and KGS are not collocated. This support aims to complement the provision of bursaries and cash transfers, which will address many of the financial constraints to accessing school, by enhancing system capacity within the education sector—and their link to communities—to identify and respond to risk factors that increase the likelihood of girls dropping out of school and prevent out-of-school girls from returning to school. First, the AF will progressively roll out the proposed case management system, which aims to identify girls who are in school and at risk of dropping out and to identify out-of-school girls who are eligible to return to school, including risks arising from GBV. A core element of this case management system is to strengthen the capacity of school guidance and counselling teachers to identify and respond to the social, psychological, and cultural vulnerabilities that girls face within the school, home, and community. The case management system will be operationalized by the Ministry in close collaboration with a nongovernmental organization (NGO) having similar experience and expertise. Once the case management system is operational, MOGE will explore how this system can be used to identify girls who are at particular risk of dropping out-of-school to facilitate the provision of additional targeted support that would address these risks.26 25 The aim is to ensure collocation with the ZEEP project and thus this ranking may be modified to take into consideration other criteria ZEEP may use in its expansion plan. 26The case management system is being developed and will seek to harmonize with existing case management systems, including that of the Service Efficiency and Effectiveness for Vulnerable Children and Adolescents (SEEVCA). Page 17 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) 37. Second, the proposed AF and restructuring will dedicate further resources to roll-out and implement gender- sensitive adaptations for the GRM for KGS in an accelerated manner (see paragraph 49). This will include appropriate channels for KGS beneficiaries to report any GBV incidents and allow the project to respond in a more timely and systematic manner. It will also include sensitization of MOGE staff, school students and communities on the GRM as well as on GBV and referral pathway/services available in project areas, including IEC materials to be placed in schools. 38. Third, the KGS will contribute towards the safe school framework of ZEEP in schools where ZEEP and KGS are not collocated. This will include dedicated outreach to and training for the school management committees and parent-teacher associations (PTAs), as well as the school leadership team, District Education Board Secretaries, and Provincial Education Offices to ensure that they understand the aims and functions of KGS to build awareness of the need for the education system to respond to the needs of particularly vulnerable girls. For the school management committees and PTAs, this will include sensitization around how to budget and plan the use of school funds to make the school inclusive and safe, to adequately respond to the needs of vulnerable girls. In addition, given the high rates of school-related GBV in Zambia, a pilot on behavior change communication will be designed and implemented with the aim of changing attitudes towards GBV and improving safety of girls. The pilot will be based on existing toolkits and models such as the Good Schools Toolkit. ZEEP will consider further roll out, system wide, based on results of this pilot. 39. Fourth, this subcomponent will support an increased focus on more rigorous oversight and monitoring by MOGE, particularly with regards to safety of boarding facilities where KGS-supported girls reside. Regular monitoring of KGS will be strengthened to include monitoring of quality of boarding facilities, monitoring more remote schools and ascertaining presence and functionality of the GRM in addition to presence of GBV support services and knowledge of them in schools. This will be in addition to spot check monitoring to be carried out by an independent firm. 40. In Zambia, a large number of girls tend to drop out or miss school regularly due to the large distances between home and school, which often pose particular risks to girls who may face harassment and GBV. There is broad agreement in Zambia that providing adolescent girls with access to safe and secure boarding schools addresses many of the risks these girls face. There are different types of boarding facilities that operate in the school education sector in Zambia, which include government-provided full boarding facilities as a part of the school, weekly boarding facilities created both by the Ministry and PTA, and private boarding facilities and arrangements. However, the Ministry does not currently have a clear policy guideline on boarding facilities and there is evidence that some boarding arrangements may pose risks to girls, including the risk of GBV from fellow students, teachers, landlords or members of the community. ZEEP is currently supporting the Ministry to establish a policy or minimum criteria, including a robust oversight mechanism. Steps are also underway to ensure that adolescent girls supported through KGS only reside in Ministry-operated boarding facilities that meet minimum criteria, including a focus on enhancing the facilities to meet the criteria. 41. Finally, this subcomponent will finance a randomized control trial (RCT) to understand the impact of the KGS and, to the extent possible, ZEEP on educational outcomes and other psychosocial measures of well-being. This RCT will help understand the differential impacts of the interventions aimed at adolescent girls through this sub-component, such as the education lump-sum grant or case management, behavior change communication pilot. The parameters of the impact evaluation will be agreed during implementation. Page 18 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) 42. Subcomponent 2b: Social Cash Transfer (US$115.30 million equivalent, of which US$86.8 million IDA, US$7 million SIDA, US$21.5 million DFID). The proposed AF will introduce a new subcomponent to directly respond to the other financial costs (beyond school and boarding fees) that restrict the ability of adolescent girls to attend school. Evidence collected through the monitoring of the KGS component to date shows that, while providing bursaries has enabled adolescent girls to continue in school or return to school, many of these girls are unable to meet the other financial costs associated with school. Where the education system in Zambia is designed to provide such support to adolescent girls, specifically through boarding facilities that provide lodging and meals, these costs are included in the bursary support from GEWEL. However, the coverage of boarding schools remains low in rural Zambia and thus many girls attend day school, which means that their families bear the costs of their food, transport, and school supplies. To this end, the proposed new subcomponent will allocate funding to the Government’s SCT to finance (a) cash transfers, (b) a proposed annual education lump-sum grant, (c) SCT messaging that will also reflect its links to GEWEL, (d) the operating costs of the program, and (e) application of ZISPIS for payments and information management. 43. The Government’s SCT currently reaches 632,327 households in 117 districts nationwide. Targeting for an additional 67,673 households is underway. Beneficiaries are selected through a targeting process that was designed based on rigorous assessments of earlier phases of the program. Currently, a harmonized targeting process is used to identify different types of vulnerable households with high dependency ratios, which are also poor.27 It is anticipated that the current priority of the Government is to stabilize the SCT caseload at 700,000 and thus no further targeting of the program is expected during the period of the proposed AF. Based on these figures, the proposed AF will finance support to 245,000 SCT beneficiaries. 44. Under this subcomponent, the SCT will provide cash transfers every two months to beneficiaries. Currently, the transfer is ZMW 90 (US$6.0) per month per household, with households containing members who have severe disabilities receiving double this amount. As the SCT has largely failed to deliver timely payments to beneficiaries, a core focus of the AF will be to improve the predictability of transfers by (a) supporting the budgeting for and timely release of funds to the MCDSS for the SCT and (b) investing in the FM and payments systems that will enable funds to be disbursed from the MCDSS to beneficiaries in a predictable and accountable manner. The AF will finance the provision of an education lump-sum payment to SCT households with adolescent girls, equivalent to 15 percent of annual SCT transfer amount per adolescent girl per year. This payment will be made annually to coincide with the start of the school year, when many households have additional expenses related to school (uniform, shoes, and supplies). The payment will be made through the SCT payment system and will be made for each girl enrolled in the KGS to complement the bursary support. In addition, this subcomponent will explore supporting the MCDSS to design, pilot, and test the provision of information to beneficiaries on the program including complementarity of other programs with SCT such as KGS, nutrition, and the use of health services. It is anticipated that this will be carried out in close coordination with UNICEF, which is launching a nutrition-sensitive pilot within the SCT, and the World Bank’s forthcoming health project. Finally, the AF will also support investments in the operational systems and procedures to ensure strong fiduciary oversight of these funds. This subcomponent will also include funding for critical equipment, operational costs, and funding for staff or consultants, as well as training. 27The specific categories are households with members (a) 65 years and above, (b) with a severe disability, and (c) chronically ill on palliative care; (d) households that are child headed; and (e) female-headed households with three or more dependent children. Page 19 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) 45. In addition to its contribution to improving the human capital of the poorest girls in rural Zambia, the provision of regular cash transfer support through the SCT is expected to help their families cope with climate change. As discussed in the context section above, climate change will result in increased weather variability in Zambia, including more intense periods of drought and flooding. Such weather events can result in periods of reduced consumption for the poorest, as well as poor households resulting in other negative coping strategies, such as pulling their children from school. Evidence from other countries, such as Ethiopia, shows that receipt of a predictable cash transfer can help poor households cope with drought and, over time, build their resilience. 46. Component 3: Institutional Strengthening and Systems Building (ISSB, AF US$4.5 million equivalent, of which US$4.5 million IDA) will continue and expand the scope of its current activities under MOG and the MCDSS as described in the following paragraphs. 47. Subcomponent 3a: Gender Equality and Gender-based Violence - Ministry of Gender (US$2.5 million). This subcomponent is expanded to strengthen the ability of the MOG to deliver on its mandate to promote gender equality and build the systems to respond to GBV. Firstly, MoG will continue carrying out its mandate for GEWEL over the extended period of the AF, including (a) project coordination and (b) communications. This function will include coordination of the HD response to GBV with the ministries of health and education and in close collaboration with the Bank-funded projects in these sectors. Secondly, this subcomponent will continue to support policy development, with specific focus on strengthening the gender policy through the formulation of a gender strategy and supporting gender mainstreaming within the GRZ, while introducing a new focus on GBV. Thirdly, the AF and restructuring will introduce new activities to strengthen the national systems for responding to GBV in Zambia. Specifically, the MOG will update and then maintain the national GBV referral pathway, starting with KGS districts. This will involve working through the existing Gender Sub- Committees at District level to collect and document information regarding GBV referral services and their capacity at the Zonal and District levels, including specific contacts of service providers for referral purposes. In addition, in order to ensure adequate support to survivors of GBV should such allegations arise within GEWEL, MOG will put in place an arrangement with qualified NGOs to provide psychosocial support and services to GBV survivors. Miscellaneous support will also be provided to any GBV survivors that report through GEWEL and cannot afford cost of transport, medical or legal aid fees. In recognition of the existing GBV Fund provided for by the Anti-GBV Act, MOG will explore the provision of support to operationalizing it. 48. Subcomponent 3b: Social Protection - MCDSS (US$2 million). This subcomponent will build on the focus of GEWEL to increase the efficiency of the social protection sector through support to (a) policy development, (b) targeting/single registry, and (c) coordination among programs. Under the AF, in addition to ongoing activities, this subcomponent will particularly focus on (a) promoting more integrated targeting and a robust and efficient payment system for the social protection sector collaboration with Smart Zambia,28 through the rollout of ZISPIS, including e-payments to beneficiaries in areas with connectivity; (b) supporting increased capacity of the finance and procurement functions within the ministry following the recommendations in the Financial Management (FM) and Procurement sections below; (c) training and capacity-building activities to strengthen ministerial systems particularly for subnational staff; (d) supporting the coordination of the social protection sector through the poverty and vulnerability cluster; (e) supporting stronger coordination among 28 The government agency that is in charge of digital economy and has been mandated by Cabinet to work with the MCDSS on MIS and payment system reform. Page 20 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) programs by expanding the Single Window and possibly an integrated GRM mechanism (which includes greater use of technology); and (f) supporting selected activities in the IFBSP. 49. GRM. A single GRM has been established for GEWEL, which is financed from each of the components above. The GRM is used by KGS and SWL to collect complaints from beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries in project areas and is coordinated by the MOG. The AF and restructuring will dedicate further resources to roll-out this GRM in an accelerated manner. In order to enhance the ability of the GRM to handle all types of complaints, including serious complaints such as GBV, the GRM consists of three different channels: First, a locked box into which written complaints can be anonymously submitted in any language, collected regularly by district officers, entered into a complaints registry, and dealt with locally where possible, while also submitting to headquarters (HQ) for monitoring purposes or further action in the case of serious complaints. The boxes will be placed in all KGS schools as well and in another location chosen by the community, such as the local church, health post or community center. Second complaints can be reported in person to trusted community focal points, selected by the beneficiaries and local community through a participatory process. Community focal points, approved by KGS girls and SWL women, will be trained on GBV best practices for receiving complaints, including survivor centric approach and how to appropriately refer different types of complaints. Third, a telephone hotline for GBV complaints in collaboration with an NGO (Lifeline Childline Zambia). Childline is an existing national hotline for GBV and HIV as well as other child protection related issues. Any child can currently call the hotline (to a toll-free number) and receive counselling over the phone, referral to appropriate services in their district and case management until the case is closed. GEWEL will collaborate with Childline to ensure awareness of their service in all KGS districts and to receive reporting from Childline on cases reported in KGS districts or involving KGS beneficiaries. Complaints received through all three channels will be registered in the GRM module of the MIS system. GRM focal points have been assigned within the MCDSS, MOG, and MOGE line structures and are responsible to ensure that complaints are collected, appropriately referred, dealt with and reported upwards. The GRM roll out also includes communication and sensitization efforts, including on GBV, at the school and community level and a survivor fund to ensure the needs of GBV survivors are met. Overall, the GRM includes a diversity of reporting channels that are well situated to ensure confidentiality, accessibility and security for complainants. 50. Ongoing efforts will be taken to collect beneficiary and community feedback on GRM performance. In particular, the feedback from girls and women will be used to further strengthen the GRM to meet their needs. The project will also explore enabling strategies such as participatory assessment with the community and outreach to the community to strengthen citizen’s ability to provide feedback on the quality of the services delivered by SWL and KGS. To complement the GRM, the AF will also roll-out SWL and KGS Service Charters aimed to improve bottom-up accountability as a way of pressing for program performance, ensuring communities are informed of their rights and responsibilities with regards to GEWEL and as part of the process of strengthening the use of the GRM. The Charters are particularly clear about the rights of SWL women and KGS girls. To support awareness raising for the GRM, picture posters have been prepared and will be used during community sensitization sessions and posted in public sites to act as prompts to non- literate beneficiaries. Periodic refresher awareness-raising will also be undertaken to confirm and remind beneficiaries of their understanding of the GRM and of their rights and responsibilities. Additionally, the AF will also seek to deepen citizen engagement through engagement in platforms for dialogue between CSOs, Government and WB. 51. Implementation arrangements. The implementation arrangements will remain the same as in the current phase of GEWEL. Under the proposed AF, the mandate of the MCDSS will expand to include SCT, which is Page 21 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) managed by the Department of Social Welfare. The implementation arrangements that are introduced under the AF are detailed in Annex 1. Within the existing implementation arrangements, the composition of the HQ teams will change within MOG, MOGE and the MCDSS, as allowed under the World Bank’s current procurement regulations (see paragraph 54), to include external consultants together with seconded government civil servants. For SWL, MCDSS will add three positions to the current PIU: a project manager, a junior accountant, and a payment specialist. MOGE will transform its KGS team into a PIU comprising a project coordinator, a project officer, four assistant project officers, an MIS specialist, an FM specialist, and a procurement officer. 52. Financing. This project paper proposes a reallocation of the original credit and appraises the proposed additional IDA Credit to GEWEL and the Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF), which will be supported by DFID and SIDA in the amounts of GBP 17 million (equivalent to US$ 21.5 million) and equivalent to US$13.5 million29 respectively. It is expected the grant resources from the MDTF will be secured by effectiveness and be available for joint co-financing of the project. A cross-effectiveness provision has been made in the IDA financing agreement to ensure that the recipient-executed trust fund grant agreement is signed and effective at the same time as the IDA financing agreement. However, in case the co-financing does not materialize, the project will be downscaled to promptly start implementation of the activities with IDA credit only. While the Ministry of Finance confirmed government funding to the SCT for 2020–2024 (see Annex 1), it was agreed that should government funding to the SCT be delayed or not forthcoming, the World Bank and CP financing will be allocated to districts where the KGS is implemented. This will ensure that the SCT, the lump-sum education grant, and the bursary support all reach KGS girls to safeguard the expected impacts of the AF on beneficiaries. Table 1: Original Credit, Proposed Restructuring and Additional Financing (US$ millions) Additional Current IDA Restructured IDA Financing Component Nate Total Costs Credit Credit (IDA, SIDA and DIFD) Support to Women’s Livelihoods 36 41.69 34.80 76.49 Keeping Girls in School MOGE’s Keeping Girls in School 25.78 19.14 22.40 41.54 Social Cash Transfer 115.30 115.3 Institutional Strengthening and Systems Building MOG 1.02 1.64 2.50 4.14 MCDSS 2.2 2.53 2.00 4.53 Total 65.0 65.0 177.00 242.00 53. Donor coordination. The social protection sector in Zambia has benefited from harmonized support from CPs, facilitated in part by the United Nations Joint Program for Social Protection. The proposed AF will contribute to strengthening this cooperation further by pooling financing to the SCT. This coordination is facilitated by a Cooperating Partners Working Group, which will be complemented by joint Government- 29SIDA will contribute SEK 140 million to the MDTF, of which US$ 1 million equivalent will be allocated to a Bank-executed trust fund to support SP system building. Page 22 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Cooperating Partner Technical Committees. Annex 1 describes this donor coordination further. The Bank is also coordinating with CPs in issues of gender equality and GBV. 54. Procurement. Procurement under the proposed AF will be carried out in accordance with the following World Bank procedures: (a) the World Bank Procurement Regulations for IPF Borrowers (July 2016, revised in November 2017 and August 2018); (b) ‘Guidelines on Preventing and Combating Fraud and Corruption in Projects Financed by IBRD Loans and IDA Credits and Grants’, dated October 15, 2006, and revised in January 2011 and July 2016; and (c) other provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement. These provisions will be applied to the parent project through a restructuring, as the parent project was prepared prior to the introduction of theWorld Bank procurement regulations. 55. Closing date extension. The proposed AF will extend the closing date of GEWEL from September 30, 2020, to April 30, 2024. III. KEY RISKS 56. The overall risk rating for this proposed AF is Substantial. The main risks are Macroeconomic and Social risks, which are rated High. Political and governance risks, those related to implementation capacity, as well as fiduciary risks have been identified as Substantial. These risks are elaborated in the following paragraphs. 57. Political and governance risks are rated Substantial taking into account (i) the allegations of corruption related to the payment of SCT beneficiaries by Zampost in two provinces, which were substantiated in the 2016 audit by the Auditor General (AG)30 and (ii) the GRZ Auditor General report of 2016 that identified financial mismanagement issues in DFID and Global Partnership for Education (GPE)-funded programs implemented by the MoGE. On the SCT, in response, the CPs suspended funding to the Government for the SCT. The GRZ acted on these allegations by dismissing the responsible Minister and launched a forensic audit, which has been completed and shared with CPs. On the MOGE, given the delays in completion of the audits and non-resolution of financial mismanagement issues, DFID suspended and subsequently closed the program. In view of these issues, the World Bank conducted a fiduciary deep-dive of Bank-projects implemented by the MOGE (namely ZEEP and KGS) in 2018-19 and found the project financial management arrangements sound and recommended further risks mitigation measures, which have informed the design of this proposed AF. With regards to the SCT, there is broad agreement among CPs and the GRZ that strengthening the delivery systems of the SCT will address many of these weaknesses. The GRZ has invested considerable resources in designing a new MIS for the social protection sector (ZISPIS) and is exploring more robust payment modalities linked to it, including electronic payments in areas with connectivity, demonstrating its commitment to addressing these issues. In addition, the upcoming elections in 2021 may pose a political risk depending on whether the incumbent stays in power or not. The design of the proposed AF responds to these risks through promoting electronic payments, robust financial management and procurement procedures, independent monitoring and spot checks, and strengthening the GRM (see the component descriptions and in Annex 2). 30The budget for the SCT in 2018 was US$63 million. The allegations of corruption with payments by Zampost in two provinces were confirmed by 2016 AG Report. This report found that US$2.6 million was unaccounted for out of US$9.3 million transferred to Zampost. The AG conducted a forensic audit, which was tabled to the Cabinet and shared with the Cooperating Partners. Page 23 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) 58. Macroeconomic risks are rated High. Zambia’s current high levels of indebtedness pose a risk to the sustainability of AF investments, as there is a risk that the Government may deprioritize funding to the SCT. The Ministry of Finance has outlined the measures it has to take to reduce the current debt burden, which involve cancelling non-concessional loan projects and putting on hold approved but undisbursed projects. The GRZ has made strong commitments to prioritize funding to the SCT, including funding two payment cycles already in April 2019 and confirming its five-year allocation to the SCT. To work toward mitigating this risk, the World Bank will continue to engage with the technical- and higher-level management to secure GRZ financial commitments to the SCT for the next five years. Higher-level dialogue will also take place on the importance of maintaining countercyclical expenditure in social sectors at this time of fiscal distress. 59. Implementation capacity-related risks are rated Substantial. While implementing ministries have demonstrated their ability to deliver GEWEL, the proposed expansion through this AF requires significant investments in new staff levels and skills. The introduction of the SCT as a subcomponent into GEWEL draws attention to the systems and procedures that underpin the targeting and delivery of that program. While significant investments have been made in these systems, its recent expansion has strained these, and dedicated attention is needed to ensure that the program can deliver to all beneficiaries. To mitigate these risks, the design of each of the components has been carefully reviewed to ensure that adequate institutional support is provided through the project in the form of capacity building and system strengthening. 60. Fiduciary risks are rated Substantial. Mitigating measures to reduce the fiduciary risk will be taken by the Government and World Bank. This will include continuous follow-up and oversight, training of staff in World Bank FM and procurement procedures, project and contract management, installation of accounting software, audit, and secondment of staff. 61. Social risks are rated as High. While the aim of GEWEL is to improve the well-being of women and girls from the poorest households, this is being carried-out in a context of high rates of GBV. As discussed in the section below on the Social Assessment, these risks are largely attributed to unequal gender norms and changes in local power dynamics due to increased income, opportunities, and mobility for women and girls. It is possible that the project may further contribute towards these risks, by providing women with productive resources. The project may also change the risks experienced by beneficiaries by, for example, given a girl who is out of school the opportunity to attend school, where there are risks of GBV within the school setting. The project aims to mitigate these risks through dedicated investments in systems that can help identify and respond to these risks, specifically through the implementation of the GBV Action Plan agreed with Government, including the expansion of the GRM, introducing the case management system under KGS, and updating national referral pathways for GBV, starting with KGS Districts. IV. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Economic and Financial Analysis 62. The anticipated benefits for GEWEL are wide-ranging, with positive impacts on human capital outcomes as well as income and consumption. The direct impacts on beneficiary outcomes from GEWEL are anticipated to come from the SWL and the KGS components, with design changes proposed through this AF and restructuring to enhance and deepen these benefits. The original Project Appraisal Document (PAD) for GEWEL explained that these components do not lend themselves to traditional cost-benefit analysis, given Page 24 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) the anticipated benefits across a range of outcomes and because there was limited evidence to indicate, ex ante, the anticipated effect size. The economic analysis thus compared the cost and benefits of each component, with benefits defined as the expected increase in earnings as a result of the program. This cost- benefit analysis was updated for the proposed AF to reflect (a) new evidence of impacts that has become available since the approval of GEWEL and (b) the reduced per beneficiary costs arising from economies of scale and the changing policy context in Zambia.31 Based on these estimates, it would take between 5.8–6.5 years to recoup the investment made through the SWL.32 Likewise, for the KGS, it would take between 3.5– 4.6 years to recoup the investment.33 The cost of the KGS component incorporates the cost of supporting boarding facilities for about half of the KGS beneficiaries. The boarding school fee, which also includes the school fee, is US$300 per year where the school fee alone is US$50 per year, which reduced by 67 percent recently. While the KGS support will continue to assist girls from the poorest households in accessing schools, this draws attention to the fact that other financial barriers to education will increasingly come to the fore. Annex 3 discusses in more detail these calculations and return-on-investment estimates that assume beneficiary dropout in KGS and failure/dropout rate in SWL. 63. Notably, this cost-benefit analysis does not consider the economic impacts of non-economic outcomes of the proposed AF. Impact evaluations of similar programs provide some insights into the potential cost effectiveness of such programs with respect to noneconomic outcomes. Impact evaluations of an SWL-like program in Bangladesh (one of the few such programs that operate at a national scale) show that a US$100 expenditure on a beneficiary could lead to a 2-percentage point increase in the probability of primary school completion, a 1.5 percentage point increase in probability of secondary school completion, and a 1.7 percentage point reduction in probability of child stunting. Similarly, evidence from a KGS-like bursary program shows that a US$100 expenditure on a beneficiary could lead to a higher probability of secondary school completion by 5.4 percentage points and reduce likelihood of unwanted pregnancy by 2.4 percentage points and fertility by 0.2 children.34 64. There is a growing body of evidence of the positive impacts that productive inclusion and bursaries can have across a range of outcomes. Since GEWEL was launched, the body of evidence on the impacts of SWL- like programs has grown. Rigorous evidence shows that these can lead to long-lasting (two years, four years, and seven years) impacts on its beneficiaries’ livelihoods, earnings, consumption, and psychosocial health, without significant negative externalities (see annex 3). Emerging evidence also suggests that these results can lead to gains in intergenerational human capital outcomes: among children ages 0–5 years at the start of program, the prevalence of stunting, wasting, and being underweight fell by 6 percentage points each, and overall primary and secondary school completion rates increased by 7 percentage points and 5 31 Reduced secondary school fees for the KGS and from continued support in the GEWEL districts as setup costs have already been incurred for both the KGS and SWL. 32 These estimates are in line with the most conservative earning growth estimates reported in the GEWEL PAD, which reports that, despite varying discount rates between 3 percent and 10 percent, the number of years to recoup the investment vary at most by a year. 33 The benefits of the KGS component increase cumulatively over successive years of schooling, despite the increase in costs. Hence, there is an economic rationale for why adolescent girls should attend all four years of schooling. 34 For the SWL, evidence only from Bangladesh by Bandiera et al. (2016) is considered because it has long-term impacts on health and education outcomes of children and is the only large-scale intervention such as the SWL. On the other hand, for the KGS, this analysis is limited to Duflo et al. (2017) due to lack of other causal estimates for a bursary program such as the KGS. See annex 3 for more details and full references Page 25 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) percentage points respectively.35 The evidence base for the KGS component has also been expanding, with causal evidence on bursary programs emerging, pointing to substantial impacts on education and health outcomes for adolescent girls. For example, a scholarship program that paid full tuition and school fees in Ghana was found to have large impacts on health and education among boys and girls. While the education impacts on girls and boys were similar, these led to a higher impact on girls’ health outcomes than for boys eight years after the program ended.36 These findings are similar to those in Kenya, which found a 12 percentage point reduction in teen pregnancy among secondary school finishers, and higher than in Malawi, which reported a 5 percentage point reduction in teen pregnancy as a result of a conditional cash transfer program aimed at bringing dropouts back to school.37 65. Robust evidence from across countries shows that cash transfers also play a crucial role in improving human capital outcomes, both directly and through improved consumption and productive investments. Evidence that cash transfers improve consumption is available from multiple programs, including the precursors to the Zambian SCT, the Child Grant Program, and the Multiple Category Targeted Program. Evaluations of these earlier programs in Zambia show that for every kwacha of transfer, consumption increased by ZMK 0.67 over and above the transfer itself, implying an income multiplier resulting from productive investments.38 To achieve these impacts, however, cash transfers need to be delivered on time and to a sufficient value. The evidence on the impact of similar unconditional cash transfer (UCT) programs on reducing stunting and fertility, delayed marriage, and less risky sexual behaviors is well documented.39 For example, Malawi’s UCT program showed a 7-percentage point reduction in pregnancy rates. Similarly, there is evidence from Africa of an improvement in educational outcomes such as enrollment, attendance, and cognitive skills among secondary school students.40 Targeting girls from the poorest households is itself considered a better approach than not doing so (for example, universalization) as currently it is the rich that primarily benefit from public expenditure on secondary education (expenditure on richest 10 percent is 9.6 times the expenditure on poorest 10 percent in Zambia).41 35 Bandiera et al. Forthcoming; mixed methods findings from, Roelen, Keetie, and Carmen Leon-Himmelstine. 2019. Graduating Out of Poverty Across Generations: Unpacking Children’s Well-being Trajectories in Burundi. Children and Society, National Children’s Bureau. See annex 3 for more details and full references 36 Duflo, Esther, Pascaline Dupas, and Michael Kremer. 2017. “The Impact of Free Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana.” Working Paper. 37 Ozier, Owen. 2018. “The Impact of Secondary Schooling in Kenya: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis .” Journal of Human Resources; Baird, Sarah, Craig McIntosh, and Berk Ozler. 2010. ‘’Cash or Condition? Evidence from a Randomized Cash Transfer Program.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5259. 38 Handa, Sudhanshu, Luisa Natali, David Seidenfeld, Gelson Tembo, and Benjamin Davis. 2018. “Can Unconditional Cash Transfers Raise Long-term Living Standards ? Evidence from Zambia.” Journal of Development Economics. 39 Bastagli, Francesca, Jessica Hagen-Zanker, Luke Harman, Valentina Barca, Georgina Sturge, Tanja Schmidt, and Luca Pellerano. 2016. Cash Transfer: What Does the Evidence Say? A Rigorous Review of Programme Impact and of the Role of Design and Implementation Features. Overseas Development Institute with Oxford Policy Management. 40 Beegle, Kathleen, Aline Coudouel, and Emma Monsalve (Eds.). 2018. Realizing the Full Potential of Social Safety Nets in Africa . World Bank; Akresh, Richard, Damien de Walque, and Harounan Kazianga. 2013. “Cash Transfers and Child Schooling: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation of the Role of Conditionality.” Working Paper from Burkina Faso; Miller, Candace, and Maxton Tsoka. 2012. Cash Transfers and Children’s Education and Labour among Malawi’s Poor. Development Policy Review from Malawi; Handa, Sudhanshu, Michael Park, Robert Darko, Isaac Osei-Akoto, Benjamin Davis, and Silvio Diadone. 2014. Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty Program Impact Evaluation. Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina from Ghana. 41 Zubairi, Asma and Pauline Rose. 2019. Equitable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa. Background paper, Mastercard Foundation Page 26 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) B. Technical 66. The design of GEWEL built on international and national evidence on the constraints to productivity for women and education for adolescent girls and the approaches that can help them overcome these constraints. The proposed AF scales up the design of GEWEL, with proposed modifications that respond to implementation lessons and the growing international evidence base, particularly for productive inclusion programs. These are detailed for each of the components in the following paragraphs. 67. While there are some variations across the design of productive inclusion programs, there is growing consensus that some key design features are most effective. They are (a) the provision of complementary consumption support, often in the form of a cash transfer; (b) sustained access to financial services and mentoring; (c) provision of one-time training (soft and/or hard skills); and (d) seed capital or asset transfer for investment in livelihoods.42 Drawing on these insights as well as operational experience of the SWL component, the AF proposes to improve the design of this component by (a) introducing complementary consumption support by selecting beneficiaries from SCT households and (b) engaging beneficiaries in savings groups before transferring the productive grant. 68. The design of the KGS drew on lessons from bursary programs in Zambia and elsewhere and harnessed the significant investments in the targeting system of the SCT. In terms of targeting, analysis of KGS and EMIS data shows that by selecting adolescent girls from SCT households in the poorest districts, the KGS has geographically targeted the regions in most need (defined as those with the highest dropout rates in 2014). Despite this evidence, concerns have been raised that eligible girls are being missed through the SCT targeting and thus the AF will support analysis and investments in the system to further strengthen this integrated approach to targeting. While monitoring data show that the bursary support has improved attendance rates, there continue to be reports that other economic constraints restrict access to education. In response, the AF will directly fund the SCT to ensure that cash transfers reach beneficiary households (which include the girls participating in the KGS) on time. The provision of more predictable consumption support is anticipated to help address these other costs, while the proposed education top-up aims to further alleviate these constraints. Finally, while the KGS does not have explicit schooling conditionalities (50 percent attendance is encouraged), evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa shows that increased monitoring of schooling can in effect create an informal condition and produce a larger impact than without such monitoring.43 69. SCT technical design has been built on both international and Zambian experience from similar UCT programs, but implementation effectiveness leaves room for improvement. The SCT design was based on the design of two pilot programs,44 which were rigorously evaluated, and on international evidence45 on the effects of key design elements. Despite its robust design, the rapid expansion of the SCT has stretched implementation capacity, which is widely attributed to the corruption allegations in late 2018. The SCT uses 42 Partnerships for Economic Inclusion. 2018. “2018 State of the Sector: Synthesis Report” 43 Beegle, Kathleen, Aline Coudouel, and Emma Monsalve (editors). 2018. “Realizing the Full Potential of Social Safety Nets in Africa”. World Bank; and Baird, Sarah, Francisco Ferreira, Berk Ozler and Michael Woolcock. 2014. “Conditional, unconditional and everything in between: a systematic review of the effects of cash transfer programmes on schooling outcomes”. Journal of Development Effectiveness 44 The Child Grant Program and the Multiple Category Targeted Program. 45 Davis, Benjamin, Sudhanshu Handa, Nicola Hypher, Natalia Rossi, Paul Winters, and Jennifer Yablonski. 2016. From Evidence to Action: The Story of Cash Transfers and Impact Evaluations in Sub-Saharan Africa. FAO, UNICEF, and Oxford University Press. Page 27 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) a harmonized targeting method that was developed through mixed methods assessments of the experience of the two pilot programs that preceded the SCT. The most recent assessment of SCT, based on LCMS 2015, shows that close to 60 percent of beneficiaries belong to the poorest 30 percent of households by income distribution.46 There has been no assessment of the targeting performance of the rapid expansion phase since 2015, but the relevance of the proxy means test is being questioned in light of its limited cost- effectiveness.47 70. The SCT is designed to facilitate planning and consumption smoothing for beneficiaries, implying that the transfer needs to be regular and predictable. This is in line with international experience.48 By design, the transfers are meant to be paid every two months, although there have been substantial delays in transfer payment. In 2018, delays of six to eight months were reported.49 A main aim of the AF is thus to improve the predictability of transfers. Currently, the SCT provides US$7.5 per household per month, except for those households with members who are severely disabled (which is defined loosely) that receive US$15 per month. These benefit levels have not been revised in response to inflationary pressures, thereby eroding the real value of the transfer and undermining the impact of the program. While the annual transfer amount was equivalent to 22.4 percent of a typical SCT household’s annual consumption in 2014 (comparable to the 24 percent average for the SCT’s precursors, the Child Grant Program and the Multiple Category Targeted Program,50 which showed substantial impacts on beneficiaries), it has become equivalent to only 14.6 percent by 2018.51 Efforts will thus be made through the AF to stabilize and potentially increase the transfer value. The inclusion of the education grant in the KGS for SCT households with adolescent girls aims to better ensure that these households can meet the basic costs of schooling. 71. Before 2019, all payments are made through three channels: (a) Zampost through its network of post offices, (b) Zanaco through ATMs or point-of-sale devices, and (c) the MCDSS through paypoint managers (PPMs), such as teachers in the local school. The use of PPMs continues despite repeated efforts of the MCDSS to procure an independent payment provider, as three procurement processes failed. The SCT payment system has been largely functional and effective: reconciliation reports show that a majority of cash transfer payments, when released from HQ, were received by the relevant beneficiaries except in the case of Zampost when the funds were misused and were unreported.52 Significant efforts are under way to strengthen the payment system of the SCT to ensure that transfers reach the intended beneficiaries on time, with robust fiduciary oversight. This draws on the experience of the SWL, which has invested considerably in these systems, and, through its use of banks and mobile money, promotes the financial inclusion of the poorest. 46 de la Fuente, Alejandro, Manuel Rosales and Jon Jellema. 2017. “The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty in Zambia.”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8246 47 By ID Insight and a process evaluation by the UN Joint Program for Social Protection 2018. 48 Davis, Benjamin, Sudhanshu Handa, Nicola Hypher, Natalia Rossi, Paul Winters and Jennifer Yablonski. 2016. “ From Evidence to Action: The Story of Cash Transfers and Impact Evaluations in Sub-Saharan Africa”. FAO, UNICEF and Oxford University Press 49 Freeland, Nicholas. 2018. “Report on the Process Evaluation of the Social Cash Transfer Programme”. UN Joint Program for Social Protection in Zambia. 50 Handa, Sudhanshu, Luisa Natali, David Seidenfeld, Gelson Tembo, and Benjamin Davis. 2018. ‘’Can Unconditional Cash Transfers Raise Long-term Living Standards? Evidence from Zambia.’’ Journal of Development Economics. 51 Calculations using LCMS 2015 data and price inflation data for Zambia from World Development Indicators, assuming no real growth in household consumption. 52 These have since been investigated by the Government. Page 28 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) C. Financial Management 72. An FMA of the MCDSS for implementing the SCT was carried out in June 2019 and at the same time the FMA of the MCDSS, MOGE, and MOG for implementing an enlarged GEWEL was updated. The FMA concluded that the FM arrangements in place for the three implementing agencies meet the World Bank’s minimum requirements under OP/BP 10.00 and therefore are adequate for the provision of information, with reasonable accuracy, on the status of the expanded project. However, the SCT FM arrangements can be enhanced by implementing the mitigating measures mentioned in the next paragraph. 73. The overall risk rating of the proposed AF was assessed as Substantial. This is because (a) the GEWEL financial accounting system is outside the integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) and is manual (using Excel spreadsheets which are inherently error prone); (b) the SCT pays a large number of beneficiaries in cash, which is susceptible to misuse and fraud; (c) there are an inadequate number of accounting staff under the SCT, KGS, and SWL; (d) there are an inadequate number of internal audit staff; and (e) staff at the SCT and KGS do not have much experience in implementing World Bank-financed projects. This Substantial risk rating is expected to reduce once mitigating measures are undertaken by the implementing agencies and the World Bank as outlined in the action plan. The ministries have assigned a member of staff to assist the project accountant at SCT, KGS and SWL. Training of both accounting and auditing staff will be conducted on a regular basis. Further support will be provided through regular implementation support missions and ongoing support by the World Bank’s FM team. Also, it is recommended that during implementation GEWEL moves to the disbursement method based on the financial monitoring report (FMR) to provide adequate financing and cash flows. See annex 1 for further details. D. Procurement 74. All procurement activities carried out under the project (both the parent project and the AF) are required to meet the conditions of the Procurement Regulations, including the use of sustainable procurement principles as recommended by the World Bank. The World Bank’s Standard Procurement Document (SPD) will be used for contracts with cost estimates equal and above the prior review limits based on the assessed project procurement Risk. The procurement methods for such contracts will be mainly Open International Bidding (OIB). The SPD of the GRZ will be used for procurement below the applicable Prior Review Thresholds for the project. All procurement that will be carried out under ONB procedures will be subject to meeting the minimum requirements set forth in the Section V Procurement Provisions; National Procurement Procedures Paragraphs 5.3 through to 5.6 and other provisions as further stipulated in Section VI under Market Approach Options specifically, approaching the national market and include paragraphs 6.15 through to 6.18 of the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations. 75. The World Bank carried out a procurement risk assessment for MCDSS, MOGE and MOG using the World Bank’s online system—Procurement Risk Assessment and Management System (PRAMS)—on June 6, 2019. Though some areas of High Risk and Substantial Risk have been identified in some key risk areas, the overall procurement risk is deemed Substantial Risk. The key risk areas requiring improvement for the project are in (a) internal manuals and clarity of the procurement systems, (b) record keeping and document management system, (c) bid evaluation, (d) contract management and administration, and (e) staff capacity. The mitigation measures are detailed in annex 1. Page 29 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) E. Social (including Safeguards) 76. With regard to social safeguards, the project is investing in activities that aim to improve the well-being of women and girls from the poorest households in Zambia. To address social risks that may arise, the project ensures receipt of regular monitoring data from districts, communities, and schools. The GRM that is currently being rolled out for GEWEL is being used to collect complaints from beneficiaries and non- beneficiaries in project areas. To date, a range of complaints have been received, which largely relate to other government programs and initiatives and not to GEWEL. The SWL and KGS GRM consists of three different channels (as detailed in paragraph 49), a locked box into which written complaints are submitted in any language, trusted community focal point, and a telephone hotline for GBV or other serious protection issues. The SCT GRM includes the modalities of locked box, sending complaints via mobile phones and a web portal, which are at the pilot stage. The current design of the GEWEL GRM has been informed by lessons learnt from the assessment of the pilot which was undertaken in the four Districts. Complaints received through all three channels will be registered in the GRM module of the MIS system. Other design enhancements of the GRM may be undertaken in future based on lessons learnt during implementation, such as the expanded use of technology to inform beneficiaries of their rights and provide citizens a means of lodging complaints through mobile phones for example. It was agreed in the Joint Annual Review of Social Protection that efforts will be taken to harmonize the GRM system for SWL, KGS, and SCT. Further, the KGS GRM will be harmonized with the ZEEP GRM, particularly in geographical areas where both projects overlap. 77. While there are no major works envisaged, the project is targeted at supporting women and adolescent girls who are susceptible to the risk of sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) and GBV largely attributed to unequal gender norms in project areas and changes in local power dynamics due to increased income, opportunities, and mobility for women and girls. Adolescent girls are particularly at risk of SEA and GBV. SEA risks could also be attributed to the varied understanding of the issue among all stakeholders responsible for project implementation. Perpetrators of such violence against girls and women can be any individual associated with the project such as school guidance counsellors, firm contracted to provide independent monitoring, and community members. To mitigate this risk, an Action Plan on GBV mitigation and response was jointly developed with government and is under implementation (see Box 1). The Action Plan includes a focus on: (a) raising awareness on risks of SEA and GBV; (b) making communities and service providers aware of available options of service providers for GBV survivors; (c) sensitizing service providers to adopt an appropriate code of conduct for all their workers; (d) strengthening the GRM to ensure complaints of GBV can also be captured as part of the grievance management system; (e) ensuring the KGS case management system functions as intended; and (f) enhancing GBV- and SRH-related content within the project and in collaboration with Bank funded education and health project. This Action Plan was summarized and disclosed in the form of the Social Action Plan on December 5, 2019. The Social Action Plan is found in Annex 5. F. Environment (including Safeguards) 78. The Category for Environment and Social is increased from Category C to Category B for the proposed AF. This is in recognition of the fact that the AF will scale up the existing components and the proposed inclusion of cash transfer support to complement the bursaries is consistent with the environmental assessment category of the parent project. However, these activities will take place in a context with a high prevalence of GBV and may exacerbate these risks for women and girls, as detailed in the paragraphs above. No civil works will be undertaken as part of the project. OP/BP 4.01 on Environmental Assessment is triggered in response to the social risks discussed in the paragraphs above. OP/BP 4.12 on Involuntary Resettlement is Page 30 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) not triggered because impacts related to land acquisition or economic displacement are not anticipated. V. WORLD BANK GRIEVANCE REDRESS 79. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World Bank (WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress mechanisms or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints received are promptly reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB non-compliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention, and Bank Management has been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products- and-services/grievance-redress-service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please visit www.inspectionpanel.org. Page 31 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) VI SUMMARY TABLE OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Procurement ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ APA Reliance ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ VII DETAILED CHANGE(S) COMPONENTS Current Component Name Current Cost Action Proposed Component Proposed Cost (US$, (US$, millions) Name millions) Keeping Girls in School 25.78 Revised Keeping Girls in School 157.34 Supporting Women's 36.00 Revised Supporting Women's 76.49 Livelihoods Livelihoods Institutional Strengthening 3.22 Revised Institutional 8.67 and Systems Building Strengthening and Systems Building Page 32 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) TOTAL 65.00 242.50 LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Ln/Cr/Tf Status Original Closing Current Proposed Proposed Deadline Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications IDA-56580 Effective 30-Sep-2020 30-Sep-2020 30-Apr-2024 30-Aug-2024 REALLOCATION BETWEEN DISBURSEMENT CATEGORIES Financing % Current Allocation Actuals + Committed Proposed Allocation (Type Total) Current Proposed REALLOCATION NEW IDA-56580-001 | Currency: XDR iLap Category Sequence No: 1 Current Expenditure Category: Gds incl vehi,ncs,cs,tr,op-A,B7,C2 15,900,000.00 15,560,901.74 20,260,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 2 Current Expenditure Category: Productivity Grants under-A 2 12,300,000.00 4,757,382.19 12,300,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 3 Current Expenditure Category: Gds incl vehi,ncs,cs,sch,tr,op-B 18,200,000.00 6,208,771.15 13,390,000.00 100.00 100.00 iLap Category Sequence No: 4 Current Expenditure Category: Goods incl vehi,ncs,cs,tr,op-C1 800,000.00 912,854.56 1,250,000.00 100.00 100.00 Total 47,200,000.00 27,439,909.64 47,200,000.00 DISBURSEMENT ARRANGEMENTS Change in Disbursement Arrangements Yes Page 33 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Expected Disbursements (in US$) DISBURSTBL Fiscal Year Annual Cumulative 2015 0.00 0.00 2016 5,712,944.00 5,712,944.00 2017 13,165,672.00 18,878,616.00 2018 18,755,360.00 37,633,976.00 2019 23,413,670.00 61,047,646.00 2020 22,571,042.00 83,618,688.00 2021 19,376,326.00 102,995,014.00 2022 16,156,192.00 119,151,206.00 2023 12,983,912.00 132,135,118.00 2024 9,864,882.00 142,000,000.00 2025 0.00 142,000,000.00 2026 0.00 142,000,000.00 SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT) Risk Category Latest ISR Rating Current Rating Political and Governance ⚫ High ⚫ Substantial Macroeconomic ⚫ High ⚫ High Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate ⚫ Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Sustainability Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Environment and Social ⚫ High ⚫ High Stakeholders ⚫ Low ⚫ Low Other Overall ⚫ Substantial ⚫ Substantial Page 34 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Safguard_Table COMPLIANCE Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Yes Safeguard Policies Triggered Current Proposed Environmental Assessment OP/BP No Yes 4.01 Performance Standards for Private No No Sector Activities OP/BP 4.03 Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 No No Forests OP/BP 4.36 No No Pest Management OP 4.09 No No Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP No No 4.11 Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 No No Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 No No Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 No No Projects on International Waterways No No OP/BP 7.50 Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 No No Environmental Assessment (EA) Category Change of EA Category Original EA Category Yes Not Required (C) Current EA Category Proposed EA Category Not Required (C) Partial Assessment (B) Page 35 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihoods Project (GEWEL) (P169975) LEGAL COVENANTS2 LEGAL COVENANTS – Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Sections and Description OPS_LEGAL_CONVENANT_CHILD_NODATA No information available Conditions Type Description Effectiveness Article IV: Project Implementation Manual has been updated by the Recipient in a manner satisfactory to the Association. Type Description Effectiveness Article IV: the Co-Financing Grant Agreement has been signed and delivered by all the parties to such agreement, and all conditions precedent to its effectiveness (other than the fulfillment of effectiveness of this Agreement) have been fulfilled Page 36 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) VIII. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING Results Framework COUNTRY: Zambia RESULT_NO_PDO Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) Project Development Objective(s) The project development objective is to support the Government of Zambia to increase access to livelihood support for women and access to secondary education for disadvantaged adolescent girls in extremely poor households in selected districts. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ PD O Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Increase access to livelihood support for women (Action: This Objective has been Revised) Number of women who receive support for improved 0.00 75,000.00 95,000.00 115,000.00 129,400.00 129,400.00 livelihoods (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Increase access to secondary education for disadvantaged adolescent girls (Action: This Objective has been Revised) Number of girls supported by the project who enroll in 0.00 25,000.00 36,000.00 43,520.00 43,520.00 43,520.00 secondary school (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Feb 22, 2019 Page 37 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ PD O Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Number of beneficiaries of SCT program (Number) 0.00 245,000.00 245,000.00 245,000.00 245,000.00 245,000.00 Action: This indicator is New PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Supporting Women's Livelihoods (Action: This Component has been Revised) Beneficiaries of Labor Market 0.00 12,000.00 34,000.00 75,000.00 75,000.00 programs (number) (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Beneficiaries of Labor Market programs - Supporting 0.00 12,000.00 34,000.00 75,000.00 75,000.00 entrepreneurship (number) (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Beneficiaries of Labor Market programs - Female 0.00 12,000.00 34,000.00 75,000.00 75,000.00 (number) (Number) Feb 22, 2019 Page 38 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Share of beneficiaries participating in savings group 0.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Share of beneficiaries participating in SWL trainings 0.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of community volunteers trained as trainers 0.00 3,750.00 4,750.00 5,750.00 6,750.00 6,750.00 (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Share of beneficiaries of SWL satisfied with the program 0.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Share of beneficiaries who received the SWL grant 80.00 80.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 90.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator is New Number of indirect SWL 419,250.00 723,346.00 beneficiaries (Number) Feb 22, 2019 Page 39 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Action: This indicator is New Keeping Girls in School (Action: This Component has been Revised) Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs (number) (CRI, 0.00 7,000.00 14,000.00 14,000.00 14,000.00 14,000.00 Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Conditional cash transfers (number) 0.00 7,000.00 14,000.00 14,000.00 14,000.00 14,000.00 (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Female 0.00 7,000.00 14,000.00 14,000.00 14,000.00 14,000.00 (number) (Number) Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Share of beneficiaries of KGS satisfied with the program 0.00 60.00 65.00 70.00 80.00 80.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator has been Revised Share of beneficiaries progressing to next grade 60.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 80.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator is New Feb 22, 2019 Page 40 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Share of schools with an operational case management 0.00 0.00 21.00 57.00 95.00 95.00 system (Percentage) Action: This indicator is New Share of eligible SCT beneficiaries who received the 0.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 95.00 95.00 education lumpsum grant (Percentage) Action: This indicator is New Share of KGS transfers made 0.00 60.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 75.00 on time (Percentage) Action: This indicator is New Share of SCT beneficiaries recieving payments on time 0.00 40.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator is New Share of SCT expenditure financed by GRZ (Percentage) 0.00 60.00 70.00 70.00 80.00 80.00 Action: This indicator is New Percentage of SCT budget releases from Treasury on time 0.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 (Percentage) Action: This indicator is New Institutional Strengthening and Systems Building (Action: This Component has been Revised) Feb 22, 2019 Page 41 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Number of government staff training on policy, 0.00 50.00 125.00 225.00 325.00 400.00 implementation and/or M&E (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Strategy for harmonization of Strategy and Strategy and women's livelihood programs No strategy exists Draft strategy developed Strategy approved implementation plan implementation plan developed (Text) developed developed Action: This indicator has been Revised Strategy for harmonization of Consultation and Strategy and Strategy and bursary schemes developed by No strategy exists analysis completed to Strategy developed implementation plan implementation plan MOGE (Text) inform strategy developed developed Action: This indicator has been Revised Single registry with links to SR linked to SCTS, SWL database of at least three SR not established SR functional SR linked to SCTS MIS SR linked to SWL MIS SR linked to KGS MIS targeted programs (Text) and KGS programs Action: This indicator has been Marked for Deletion Updating national referral 0.00 16.00 37.00 47.00 47.00 47.00 pathways for GBV (Number) Action: This indicator is New Functional GRM rolled-out 4.00 27.00 40.00 65.00 78.00 78.00 (Number) Action: This indicator is New Feb 22, 2019 Page 42 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) RESULT_FRAME_T BL_ IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 Share of complaints received resolved within a stipulated 0.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 75.00 period of time (Percentage) Action: This indicator is New Financial Sustainability Strategy for GEWEL Project Does not exist Does not exist Does not exist Strategy developed Strategy developed Strategy developed (Text) Action: This indicator is New Share of SCT beneficiaries receiving payments through 0.00 50.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 95.00 ZISPIS (Percentage) Action: This indicator is New IO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection This indicator measures the number of women enrolled Number of women who receive support Annual SWL - MIS MCDSS into the SWL who receive for improved livelihoods at least one component of the livelihood package. This indicator reflects the Number of girls supported by the project number of girls who Annual KGS - MIS MOGE who enroll in secondary school receive support under the Keeping Girls in School Feb 22, 2019 Page 43 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) component to attend secondary school. Defined as the number of beneficiaries enrolled and Annual SCT-MIS MCDSS Number of beneficiaries of SCT program received at least one payment from SCT in the last 12 months ME PDO Table SPACE Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators Mapped Methodology for Data Responsibility for Data Indicator Name Definition/Description Frequency Datasource Collection Collection This indicator measures the number of individual beneficiaries covered by Beneficiaries of Labor Market programs passive and active labor MCDMCH MIS Annual (number) market programs (ALMPs) – including entrepreneurship programs - supported by the Bank. Includes programs promoting entrepreneurship and aiming at creating income Beneficiaries of Labor Market generation opportunities programs - Supporting such as microcredit, start- MCDMCH MIS Annual entrepreneurship (number) up incentives, small business grants, micro- franchising, value chain integration programs, training to support self- Feb 22, 2019 Page 44 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) employment and entrepreneurship, mentoring , counseling and networking. This indicator measures females’ participation in ALMPS. It has the same definition as "Beneficiaries of Labor Market programs" Beneficiaries of Labor Market but applies only to women. MCDMCH MIS Annual programs - Female (number) This indicator will yield a measure of coverage of ALMPs disaggregated by gender in absolute numbers. This indicator reflects the Share of beneficiaries participating in share of participants in the Annual SWL-MIS MCDSS savings group SWL component who join a savings group, if available This indicator reflects the share of participants in the SWL component who complete the training Share of beneficiaries participating in SWL Annual SWL-MIS MCDSS course, if available. The trainings target numbers are slightly lower than the current value of the indicator to factor the AF expansion. This indicator reflects the Number of community volunteers trained number of community Annual SWL-MIS MCDSS as trainers volunteers who complete a Training of Trainers Feb 22, 2019 Page 45 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) workshop This indicator reflects the percentage of beneficiaries of the Supporting Women's Share of beneficiaries of SWL satisfied Annual SWL-MIS MCDSS Livelihoods Support with the program component who report being satisfied with the project This indicator is defined as Share of beneficiaries who received the the share of SWL Annual SWL-MIS MCDSS SWL grant beneficiaries who receive the productivity grant. Number of household members also benefiting from SWL. Obtained by Annual SWL-MIS MCDSS Number of indirect SWL beneficiaries multiplying number of SWL beneficiaries with average household size (5.59) This indicator measures the number of individual beneficiaries covered by safety nets programs supported by the Bank. Safety nets programs Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs intend to provide social MESVTEE MIS Annual (number) assistance (kind or cash) to poor and vulnerable individuals or families, including those to help cope with consequences of economic or other shock. Feb 22, 2019 Page 46 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Follows the safety nets Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs programs’ classification MESVTEE MIS Annual - Conditional cash transfers (number) used in SP Atlas. This indicator measures female participation in SSN programs. It has the same definition as the "Beneficiaries of Safety Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs Nets programs" but applies MESVTEE MIS Annual - Female (number) only to female. This indicator will yield a measure of coverage of SSN projects disaggregated by gender (in absolute numbers) This indicator reflects the MIS (based on percentage of beneficiaries an annual Share of beneficiaries of KGS satisfied of the Keeping Girls in Annual survey of a MOGE with the program School component who sample of report being satisfied with participants) the program Defined as the share of KGS Share of beneficiaries progressing to next Annual KGS-MIS MOGE beneficiaries enrolled, who grade continue to the next grade Share of all schools with an operational case Share of schools with an operational case management system. Total Annual KGS MIS MOGE management system schools is across all 47 districts planned to be covered by end of project. Share of eligible SCT beneficiaries who The denominator is the Annual SCT-MIS and MCDSS and MOGE received the education lumpsum grant number of households who KGS-MIS Feb 22, 2019 Page 47 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) qualify to receive the education lumpsum grant, i.e., have a KGS beneficiary This indicator measures the percent of KGS transfers that reach the beneficiary Annual KGS-MIS MOGE Share of KGS transfers made on time schools by the dates set out in the Operations Manuel. A transfer is considered on time if it is received by a beneficiary within a month Share of SCT beneficiaries recieving Annual SCT-MIS MCDSS of scheduled transfer date, payments on time as defined in the Operations Manual for the SCT. Amount of financing disbursed to the MCDSS program for transfer Of the total value of Department payment from benefits provided to SCT Annual of Social MCDSS Share of SCT expenditure financed by GRZ government, as a beneficiaries, the share Welfare proportion of total that is financed by GRZ Accounts amount of transfer payments made This indicator aims to measure the extent to which Treasury disburses Percentage of SCT budget releases from Annual SCT-MIS MCDSS funds to the SCT on a Treasury on time schedule that allows the SCT to make payments to beneficiaries on time. Feb 22, 2019 Page 48 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) This indicator reflects the number of government staff engaged in the Project Documentatio Number of government staff training on who receive training policy, Annual n from MOG policy, implementation and/or M&E implementation and/or training M&E of social protection events and labor and/or gender programming This indicator reflects the development of a policy framework to support Strategy for harmonization of women's Annual Progress MCDSS coordination of livelihood Annual livelihood programs developed reports programs to reduce duplication and fragmentation This indicator reflects the development of an Strategy for harmonization of bursary operational framework to Annual Progress MOGE schemes developed by MOGE govern all bursary schemes reports implemented by the MESVTEE This indicator tracks the establishment of a single registry and its link to Single registry with links to database of at databases of the SCTS, MCDMCH Single registry Annual least three targeted programs Livelihood Support and Keeping Girls in School programs This indicator will measure This Ministry of Updating national referral pathways for the number of districts in indicator Gender Ministry of Gender GBV which GEWEL has will be project supported the updating of reported documents Feb 22, 2019 Page 49 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) the national referral upon every and pathways for GBV. six months monitoring. by the Ministry of Gender. The number of districts Functional GRM rolled-out with a functional GRM for GEWEL. Resolved is defined as a complaint having been received, investigated and Progress Share of complaints received resolved Annual MOG a response given to the reports within a stipulated period of time complainant. This is an aggregated indicator across all components Financial Sustainability Strategy for Annual MOG GEWEL Project Denominator is the number of beneficiaries Share of SCT beneficiaries receiving Annual SCT-MIS MCDSS who choose to be paid payments through ZISPIS electronically through ZISPIS ME IO Table SPACE Feb 22, 2019 Page 50 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) ANNEX 1: CHANGES TO IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS 1. For the proposed Additional Financing, the original institutional arrangements of GEWEL remain unchanged, as set out in the GEWEL project appraisal document and presented in the diagram below, except for the newly introduced sub-component 2b. Social Cash Transfers implemented by MCDSS Department of Social Welfare, which is described in the section below Figure 1.1. Overview of institutional arrangements and project components Project Steering Committee Permanent Secretaries of MOG, MCDSS, MOGE Co-ordination & Oversight National Secretariat Support & Consolidated Reporting (MOG) MCDSS MOGE MOG Supporting Women’s COMPONENT 1: Livelihoods Community Development (US$34.8 million) Scale-up of SWL Keeping Girls in School COMPONENT 2: 2b: Social Welfare 2a: Planning & (US$115.3 million) Information (US$22.4 million) Social Cash Transfers Enhancing access to education Institutional Strengthening & System Building COMPONENT 3: 3b: Planning & 3a: Planning & Information Information (US$2.5 million) (US$2.0 million) Gender Equality and Social Protection Policy Gender-Based Violence and System Building Mitigation Page 51 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Social Cash Transfer 2. The Social Cash Transfer (SCT) subcomponent will be implemented by the MCDSS under the guidance of the Permanent Secretary, who will have oversight of the subcomponent. The Permanent Secretary will serve as the controlling officer for the management of the funds and supervision of activities. Policy guidance will be provided by the Poverty and Vulnerability Reduction Cluster Advisory Group, under the 7NDP, which oversees social protection programming in Zambia. The Project Steering Committee for GEWEL will provide oversight and coordination of this subcomponent as part of its mandate to coordinate the project. 3. The SCT is implemented by the Department of Social Welfare (DSW) of the MCDSS, with direct management by the Director of Social Welfare with support of the SCT management team. The HQ-based SCT management team includes the following positions: Chief of Social Welfare and Principal Social Welfare Officer (SCT Manager), and officers in charge of management and implementation, management information systems, FM, procurement, M&E, and communication, and an assistant accountant. The DSW provides overall coordination and strategic guidance and oversight functions and produces aggregated reports on the SCT program. At HQ, the Director of Social Welfare, Chief of Social Welfare, and SCT Manager, management and implementation officers, and M&E officers are civil servants. UNICEF funds two MIS officers, the grievance officer, and a financial specialist. 4. At the provincial level, each province has a Provincial Social Welfare Officer (PSWO), one Senior Social Welfare Officer, and one provincial accountant. The Senior Social Welfare Officer conducts monitoring for SCT under supervision of the PSWO. The PSWO oversees planning and budgeting, quality control, training, financial and progress reporting, including oversight on district reporting, sensitization activities, and capacity building within the province. The PSWO reports to the Director of Social Welfare at HQ. 5. District activities are led by the District Social Welfare Officer with support from, at the minimum, two Assistant District Social Welfare Officers and an Assistant Program Officer. The District Social Welfare Office (DSWO) manages the accounts at the district levels and oversees the activities of the community structures. The DSWO reports to the Provincial Social Welfare Office and serves as the secretariat of the District Welfare Assistance Committee (DWAC). The DWAC is composed of volunteer representatives of Government ministries, NGOs, churches, and community-based organizations and serves for three years. 6. The SCT program is carried out with extensive support from community structures, particularly the CWACs. The CWACs are community-level structures and its members are elected by the communities to serve for 3 years. The CWACs provide support, with guidance from the chairpersons, to SCT and other social protection programs in the areas of targeting, payments, and monitoring. The chairpersons and secretaries of the CWACs also sit on the Area Coordinating Committee (ACC), appointed for three years with responsibilities of monitoring and coordinating the CWACs. The ACC reports to the DWACs. Figure 1.1. describes the administrative system for SCT. Page 52 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Figure 1.2. SCT Administrative System 7. Financing. This Project Paper appraised the proposed additional IDA Credit to GEWEL and the expected Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF), which will be supported by DFID and SIDA in the amounts of GBP 17 million (equivalent to US$ 21.5 million) and SEK 140 million (equivalent to US$14.5 million, of which US$1 million will be allocated to a Bank-executed trust fund) respectively. The Ministry of Finance confirmed government funding to the SCT for 2020–2024. Table 1.1 presents financing to the SCT. It was agreed that, should government funding to the SCT be delayed or not forthcoming, the World Bank and Cooperating Partner financing will be allocated in districts where the KGS is implemented. This will ensure that the SCT, the lump-sum education grant, and the bursary support all reach KGS girls to safeguard the expected impacts of the GEWEL AF on beneficiaries. The DFID and SIDA co-financing to the SCT will finance both cash transfers and associated operating costs, as will World Bank financing. DFID disbursements to the program will be completed by March 2023. Resumption of SIDA and DFID funding to SCT is contingent on the receipt of a management response from the GRZ to the forensic audit undertaken by the Office of the Auditor General (OAG) and on the completion of the SIDA forensic audit, achieving adequate progress in basic systems (namely payment tracking, grievance redress, and financial reporting) through the support of the World Bank and UN on system strengthening, and continued release of government budget, as detailed in the FM Assessment (FMA) below. Page 53 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Table 1.1. Social Cash Transfer (SCT) Program: Financing Requirements and Sources of Financing 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 TOTAL Beneficiary caseload 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 700,000 Total budget (US$, millions) 100.8 100.8 101.5 101.5 102.2 506.7 Sources of financing (US$, millions) World Bank IDA Credit 17.34 17.34 17.34 17.34 17.34 86.7 DFID Grant 7.2 7.2 7.2 — — 21.5 SIDA Grant 2.8 2.8 1.4 — — 7 Government Financing 69.9 69.9 69.9 69.9 69.9 349.5 Financing gap (US$, million) -3.6 -3.6 -5.7 -14.3 -15.0 -42.0 Note: DFID and SIDA grant amounts are US$ equivalents of GBP and SEK amounts, converted at the average currency exchange rate for August 2019 8. Donor coordination. The social protection sector in Zambia has benefited from harmonized support from Cooperating Partners, facilitated in part by the United Nations Joint Program for Social Protection (UNJPSP). The proposed AF will contribute to strengthening this cooperation further by pooling financing to the SCT. This coordination is facilitated by a Cooperating Partners Working Group, which will meet every two weeks to assess progress in project implementation and provide strategic guidance to the World Bank-executed Multi-Donor Trust Fund. A terms of reference (TOR) for this group will be developed to establish key principles, ways of working, and coordinating resources. This will be complemented by joint Government-Cooperating Partner Technical Committees that will provide support to (a) project implementation and (b) system strengthening, research, and planning. Smaller working groups on specific thematic issues may be formed, if needed. In addition, the World Bank will seek to harmonize implementation support to the project around two joint missions per year and to streamline government reporting to Cooperating Partners through consolidated progress and financial reports. Page 54 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) ANNEX 2: GOVERNANCE 9. The proposed Additional Financing introduces several measures to further strengthen the governance arrangements for GEWEL. These arrangements encompass the financial management and procurement systems, as well as measures to further strengthen the grievance and redress mechanism of the project and monitoring and evaluation, including the introduction of independent spot checks. These are described in detail in the sections below. FM and Disbursement 10. In June 2019, a financial management assessment (FMA) of the SCT to be implemented by the MCDSS under the GEWEL AF was carried out. At the same time, FM assessments for implementing agencies, the MCDSS-SWL, MOGE-KGS, and MOG-coordination were updated. The World Bank proposes to extend funding to support the SCT that is currently being funded by the Zambian Government with support from Cooperating Partners (DFID, Sweden, Finland, UNICEF, and Ireland) being implemented by the MCDSS. The assessments were carried out in accordance with the World Bank Directive: Financial Management Manual for World Bank Investment Project Financing Operations, OPCS 5.05-DIR.01, issued by the Standards, Procurement, and Financial Management (OPSPF) unit on February 28, 2017, and in accordance with the World Bank Guidance to Financial Management Specialists on Financial Management Arrangements in World Bank-financed Investment Operations, OPCS5.05-GUID.02 issued on February 28, 2017. The objective of the FMA is to determine whether the entity or entities implementing World Bank- financed projects have acceptable FM arrangements. OP/BP 10.00 on Investment Project Financing defines FM arrangements as the planning, budgeting, accounting, internal control, funds flow, financial reporting, and auditing arrangements of the entity or entities responsible for implementing World Bank- financed operations. The policy requires the borrower to maintain FM arrangements, which are acceptable to the World Bank and provide reasonable assurance that the proceeds of the loan are used for the intended purposes. These FM arrangements apply to both IDA resources as well as the expected MDTF supported by DFID and SIDA. 11. The objectives of the FM assessments were to determine whether the implementing agencies’ FM arrangements were capable of (a) recording correctly and completely all budgets, transactions and balances, (b) supporting the preparation of regular and reliable financial statements, and (c) safeguarding the entity’s assets, and (d) are subject to auditing arrangements acceptable to the World Bank. 12. An FMA of the MCDSS for implementing the SCT was carried out in June 2019 and at the same time, the FMA of MCDSS, MOGE, and MOG for implementing an enlarged GEWEL was updated. The FMA concluded that the FM arrangements in place for the three implementing agencies meet the World Bank’s minimum requirements under OP/BP 10.00 and, therefore, are adequate for the provision of accurate and timely information, with reasonable accuracy, on the status of the expanded project. However, the SCT FM arrangements can be enhanced by implementing the mitigating measures mentioned in the next paragraph. 13. The overall fiduciary risk rating of the proposed AF was assessed as Substantial. This is because (a) the GEWEL financial accounting system is manual (using Excel spreadsheets which are error prone), (b) cash payments to beneficiaries under SCT are based on a beneficiaries’ data register, MIS, whose integrity has not been tested, (c) there are an inadequate number of accounting staff under SCT and SWL, (d) there Page 55 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) are an inadequate number of internal audit staff, and (e) staff at the SCT and KGS do not have experience in implementing World Bank-financed projects. This Substantial risk rating is expected to reduce once mitigating measures are undertaken by the implementing agencies and the World Bank, as outlined in the action plan. Training of both accounting and auditing staff in World Bank procedures and policies will be conducted on a regular basis. Further support will be provided through implementation support missions, typically carried out every six months, and ongoing support by the World Bank’s FM team. 14. Currently, the Cooperating Partners under the SCT program have decided to withhold their contributions. DFID and SIDA will consider financing once FM improvements are undertaken leading to reduced fiduciary risk. There are some concerns on the quality of financial reporting and the need to strengthen the budgeting and control of administrative expenditure. Resumption of SIDA and DFID funding to SCT is contingent on the receipt of a management response from the GRZ to the forensic audit undertaken by the Office of the Auditor General (OAG) and on the completion of the SIDA forensic audit, achieving adequate progress in basic systems (namely payment tracking, grievance redress, and financial reporting) through the support of the World Bank and UNICEF on system strengthening, and continued release of government budget as detailed below: (a) GRM: Operational manual, training manual, communication strategy, grievance forms, and other related GRM tools implemented in at least five districts by end of 2019 with a plan to roll them out in other districts. (b) FM: Navision accounting software installed and interfaced with the IFMIS at the MCDSS and improved financial reporting format agreed and implemented. (c) Payment tracking: A road map on adaptation of payment systems with some pilots already ongoing—for example, a choice based electronic payment option for urban and peri-urban areas with timely payment tracking. Budgeting System 15. The budget preparation and monitoring will follow the country system, and this is fully described in the Project Implementation Manual (PIM). The PIM shall be updated to include the budget process under the SCT. The MCDSS-SWL and SCT and MOGE-KGS will submit their annual work plans (AWPs) and budgets to MOG for consolidation. Staffing 16. The MCDSS-SWL is inadequately staffed although it has a qualified accountant who was recruited but does not have assistants. The MCDSS has assigned a member of staff from the accounts department to assist the Project Accountant. While the MOGE-KGS accountant has no experience in implementing World Bank-financed projects, he was recently trained in World Bank FM procedures. Under the SCT, there is a qualified accountant at the HQ, and there are qualified accountants at the provincial centers. Yet, under the MCDSS, there are no accounting staff at the district level where non-accountants are being used. The accountants under the SCT do not have experience in implementing World Bank projects. Training in World Bank FM procedures is recommended for all levels of accounting staff. Page 56 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Accounting Basis and Information System 17. The project will use the cash basis of accounting in line with the International Public Sector Standard. Although MOG, MOGE, and the MCDSS are connected to IFMIS, the project uses manual systems to prepare project accounts. While project reports cannot currently be prepared using the IFMIS, the GRZ has recently indicated that the project module in IFMIS will be operationalized and all projects will be on IFMIS. As a result, the MCDSS is planning the installation of an accounting software package, Navision, under UNICEF funding, as per schedule indicated in the action plan, with an interface with the IFMIS. MOGE and MOG will consider a similar package. Internal Control Systems 18. Under the existing FM arrangements, internal control systems need further strengthening especially at the provinces and districts. The staff numbers, including nonaccounting staff, are too few to allow for an effective segregation of accounting and reporting functions to operate. The control framework around the SCT payments include: (i) beneficiaries under the SCTP are determined through a consultative process which includes the participation of communities in identifying and validation process of the most vulnerable amongst themselves, (ii) a register of beneficiaries is independently maintained (iii) funds are transferred to provinces and districts electronically to separate bank accounts for SCTs and administration costs. SCT payments to beneficiaries are made by Payment Point Managers in the presence of CWAC members who ensure the right beneficiaries are paid and will sign the payment list together with PPM. Any unpaid monies are banked. Beneficiaries are informed through the CWAC members when to come for payment. 19. The effectiveness of the internal audit function is reduced because the department is inadequately resourced in terms of staff numbers, financially and logistically, in relation to the approved AWPs and budget. Currently, the department has three staff members (that is, Head of Internal Audit and two assistant internal auditors). This staff compliment is considered inadequate to carry out the functions at the MCDSS and the SCTP with a country-wide presence in all the 119 districts. Nevertheless, the GRZ has decided to upgrade the internal audit function to a directorate and increase the number of staff. A comparison of the approved AWPs and the actual reviews revealed that only 2 percent, 8 percent, 12 percent, 7 percent, and 11 percent audits were carried out in 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and half year of 2019, respectively. Furthermore, a review of the few SCTP internal audit reports revealed accountability issues which did not indicate any management follow-up actions within the time frame according the Public Financial Management Act. In addition, even though the Audit Committee is established, no review reports were made available to us. It is recommended that the effectiveness of the internal audit functions needs to be enhanced through the allocation of adequate personnel, funded budget, and logistical support so that the approved planned activities are carried out. It is also recommended that the relevant internal audit reports or a summary of the same are shared with Cooperating Partners regularly. Funds Flow and Disbursement Arrangements 20. In accordance with the World Bank’s disbursement guidelines, disbursements methods for the parent operation have included advance to Designated Accounts (DAs), direct payment, reimbursement, and special commitments. With the AF, this is expected to continue, and in addition a new DA for the SCTP will be opened. Accordingly, the following designated accounts will be operational: Page 57 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) (a) DA-A for Component 1: SWL, and Subcomponent 3b under the MCDSS (b) DA-B for Component 2: KGS, under MOGE (c) DA-C for Component 3 and Subcomponent 3a: ISSB, under MOG (d) DA-D for Subcomponent 2b: SCT, under MCDSS 21. All the DAs are maintained in U.S. dollars at the Bank of Zambia (BOZ). The ceilings of the DAs of the parent operation will be increased as will be agreed, whereas the DA amount for the SCT under the MCDSS will be based on periodic caseload forecasts used to determine the expenditure budget. It is recommended that GEWEL move to FMR-based disbursement method to provide adequate financing and cash flows. It is also recommended that KGS and SWL apply for a waiver, as SCT, in processing payments within their relevant ministries. The disbursement arrangements and procedures for the SCT will be defined in the disbursement and financial information letter as part of the Financing Agreement with the borrower. The funds will flow according to the diagram in figure 2.1. Figure 2.1. Funds Flow and Disbursement Arrangements 22. DAs in U.S. dollar and operational accounts in Zambian Kwacha are opened and maintained at the Central Bank (BOZ) for each of the implementing agencies. Funds from the World Bank are transferred into the DAs. To access the funds, the agencies issue instructions to BOZ to transfer a specified amount of money from the DA to Control 99 and once funds are in Control 99, the Ministry of Finance Treasury Page 58 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Services ring-fence the funds. The agencies prepare an open item to allow funds to be transferred through the Treasury Single Account (TSA) to the respective operational account (ZMK) at BOZ. Operational account mirror accounts are also opened at commercial banks acceptable to the World Bank from which payments/disbursements will be made. 23. A separate DA-D in U.S. dollars will be opened for the SCT component at the BOZ and the disbursement arrangement will be the same as mentioned earlier. Financial Reporting System 24. Each implementing agency (MCDSS-SWL, MOGE-KGS, and MOG-ISSB) is required to submit quarterly unaudited interim financial reports (IFRs), in the prescribed format, within 45 days of the end of each calendar quarter. All implementing agencies have been submitting the IFRs to the World Bank although at times the submissions are made late. 25. With the installation of the financial accounting software, it is expected that accurate recording of expenditure and production of timely financial reports will be achieved. Currently, the IFRs are prepared using Excel spreadsheets. 26. The MCDSS-SCT component will also submit quarterly unaudited IFRs in the prescribed format within 45 days following the end of the quarter. 27. MOG as the coordinating ministry will prepare the annual accounts within three months of the end of the financial year in accordance with applicable standards acceptable to the World Bank. The ministry, through the Project National Secretariat, will be responsible for ensuring that reports are audited and submitted to the World Bank. External Auditing 28. The audit will be carried out annually by the OAG, who is mandated by the Constitution of Zambia to audit all Government funds. The OAG will conduct the audit in accordance with the International Standards for Supreme Audit Institutions. IDA requires that the Audited Financial Statements for the project be submitted no later than six months after the end of the fiscal year. Besides the audit opinion, the auditor will be required to prepare a separate report to management, giving significant weaknesses that the auditor comes across during the audit that are not reflected in the audit opinion. The Management Letter should be submitted to IDA together with the audited financial statements not later than six months after the year end. 29. The audit shall be carried out in accordance with TOR of the project that are acceptable to IDA. In this regard, the audit arrangements should be based on the ‘Guidelines – Annual Financial Reporting and Auditing of World Bank-Financed Activities’ issued by the World Bank on June 30, 2003. FM Action Plan 30. To address the substantial risk assessed under the project, table 2.1 provides the required mitigation measures. Page 59 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) 31. The plan below indicates the key FM actions to be taken: Table 2.1. Financial Management Action Plan Significant Responsible Completion # Action Weaknesses Person Date 1. Uses a manual For SCT, operationalize/install the MCDSS Finance Director Phase 1 (HQ, all accounting system Navision accounting software at provincial offices, HQ, provinces, and districts, with and 10 districts) by an improved financial reporting October 2019 format agreed and implemented UNICEF Phase 2 for Operationalization and additional districts in installation of Navision will also 2020 be done at MOGE and MOG, following the successful Phase 3 for implementation at SCT remaining districts in 2021 2a. MCDSS Internal Additional internal audit staff to Controller of Internal During project Audit Department be allocated to the ministry based Audit implementation does not have on approved work programs sufficient staff Upgrade the internal audit structure to a directorate and increase the number of staffs 2b. Lacks logistical Buy motor vehicles for the Ministries During project support for internal internal audit department (the implementation audit department exact number will be determined as part of the annual planning process) 3. The internal audit Consider the needs of the internal Ministries During project function for the audit function in the annual implementation project is under- planning process of GEWEL funded 4. Delayed Install Navision accounting UNICEF During project accountability of software at the district level implementation funds disbursed to interfaced to the IFMIS at the Finance Director – the districts for the province MCDSS project The Government is in the final stages of preparation for piloting for SCT the ZISPIS, including the MIS and electronic payments for urban and peri-urban areas. Roll out of electronic payments is Page 60 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) recommended based on the results of the pilot. A road map on adaptation of payment systems is to be prepared, incorporating the pilots, and preparing a scale-up plan 5. Staff lacking Training of accountants in World World Bank Before signing and experience in Bank disbursement procedures continuously during implementing and reporting life of the project World Bank- financed projects 6. Use of Social Consider integrating the SCT Finance Director – During Project Welfare staff who accounting procedures by MCDSS Implementation are none bringing in the accounting staff accountants to under the Accountant General’s perform accounting office at the Province and District functions at the to eventually take over from the Province and Social Welfare staff and the District. Contracted accounting staff. The structure of the SCT accounting The use of functions/procedures at the contracted MCDSS headquarters to be accounting staff replicated at the Province and financed by the CPs District under the SCTP is not sustainable. The capacity created is not long term 32. A GRM, while not directly part of the FM is a crucial governance and accountability issue within of the project, and hence, progress on it will be tracked. Additionally, DFID financing is contingent on the project having a functioning GRM. Specifically, the project will track the implementation of an operational manual, training manual, communication strategy, grievance forms, and other related GRM tools implemented in at least five districts by end of 2019 with a plan to roll them out in other districts. Supervision Plan 33. FM supervision will be carried out by the Financial Management Team (FMT) as part of the implementation support mission. The FMT will review the periodic IFRs, the TOR for the external audit, the annual audited financial statements and the accompanying Management Letters from the external auditors and follow-up on material accountability issues by engaging with the task team leader, client, and/or auditors. The frequency of the supervision visits will be determined in line with the assessed Substantial FM risk. This is in addition to ongoing support in the area of FM by the World Bank team, including potential quarterly in-depth financial reviews. Page 61 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Procurement 34. The existing GEWEL is being implemented based on the application of the “Guidelines – Procurement of Goods, Works and Non-Consulting Services under IBRD Loans and Credits by World Bank Borrowers January 2011 revised July 2014” and the “Guidelines Selection and Employment of Consultants under IBRD Loans and Credits by World Bank Borrowers January 2011 revised July 2014”. The AF for GEWEL will allow for the transition to the use of the World Bank’s New Procurement Framework and the use of The World Bank Procurement Regulations applicable to IPF for Borrowers, for Goods, Works, Non- Consulting and Consulting Services, July 2016, Revised November 2017 and August 2018”. These procurement Regulations include provisions that will enhance project implementation and VFM in procurement. The main provisions of the Procurement Regulations include the following: (a) Use of the Standstill Period in line with paragraphs 5.78–5.80 following Notification of Intention to award the contract in line with paragraphs 5.72–5.77. The use of the Standstill Period will harmonize the Governments own practices which already included this provision before it was introduced by the World Bank. (b) Use of the World Bank Group sanctions framework which carries with it the possibility or flexibility for the World Bank to accept sanctions that may be carried out by the borrower based on satisfaction by the World Bank that the said sanctions have been preceded by a “relevant judicial or administrative proceeding which afforded the firm or the individual adequate due process” in line with provisions of Section III Governance – paragraph 3.3 (f). (c) Use of civil servants or Government officials as part of the project implementation support personnel pursuant to the provisions of the “Banks Procurement Regulations Section VII paragraph 7.32” subject to review and approval by the World Bank. (d) Methodology and treatment of abnormally low tenders or bids has been introduced in the case of works, goods, and non-consultant services as provided for in the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations Section V paragraph 5.65, with guidance being provided to bidders and borrowers in the SPD. Similarly, the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations and the SPD also provide for how to address “seriously unbalanced or front-loaded bids or proposals” in paragraphs 5.65 and 5.66. (e) Efficiency of procurement processing has been enhanced by raising the reducing prior and selection method limits whereby the prior reviews by the World Bank of procurement decisions will be infrequent and has passed on the procurement implementation risk to the borrowers. This will enable the World Bank staff to instead support the borrowers’ capacity- building and systems improvement requirements through training and as needed formal and informal hand-holding. (f) System for Tracking Exchanges in Procurement (STEP). The Zambia GEWEL Implementing Unit like all project implementation agencies of the borrower implementing World Bank- funded projects, will use the STEP whose use is mandatory since July 1,2016. The World Bank has rolled out STEP for Zambian projects and has carried out training for all projects. Hands- on support continues to be provided to STEP users. The use of STEP enables online Page 62 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) procurement planning and end-to-end tracking of procurement. It also allows users—both the Government and the World Bank—to monitor timeliness or efficiency of procurement. 35. The Procurement Regulations in Section IV “Project Procurement Strategy for Development (PPSD) and Procurement Plan” under paragraph 4.1 requires the borrower to develop the PPSD for each IPF. The PPSD using a risk-based approach addresses how procurement activities will support the project objectives and achieve VFM. 36. The formulation of the PPSD has been prepared for the AF and has contributed to an understanding of the market, available market approaches, and was the basis for the preparation of the Project Procurement Plan. The PPSD helped to identify activities, the procurement approach, and methods and advocated where possible for the use of open competition or use of any new procurement techniques. The PPSD has been further supported by the project procurement risk assessment which has identified procurement risks using the World Bank’s online PRAMS System. The assessment identified the areas for improvement of the client’s procurement institutional capacity, staffing, legal, amongst other considerations. Corresponding risk mitigation measures have been identified and will be implemented over the life of the project. 37. The PPSD has been prepared and is the key document which describes the borrower’s procurement capacity-building needs, and staffing, funding, consulting services, training, and other actions proposed to address the implementation needs of the AF-GEWEL. It has also considered the specific technical advice and implementation support that may be needed by the implementation agencies from the World Bank at a project level. 38. The procurement approach and methods for all components will follow standard approaches and methods and are provided in the approved Textual Procurement Plan and includes appropriate selection methods and market approach options as provided for in the World Bank’s Procurement Regulations Section VI Approved Selection Methods for Goods, Works, and Non-Consultant Services, and in Section VII Approved Selection Methods Consulting Services. All procurement activities will be required to meet the policy processing thresholds for the procurement methods and approvals and procurement oversight and review levels. 39. The World Bank supported the MCDSS MOGE, and MOG to carry out the PPSD. The PPSD is a GRZ document and is provided as a separate document. The World Bank has reviewed the PPSD and found it to be acceptable. Over the life of the project, the GRZ will review and update the PPSD as the need arises. The following points summarize the main conclusions of the PPSD: (a) Recommended procurement approach for the project. Information of the market or procurement methods considering the available choices following the PPSD. Page 63 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Table 2.2. Zambia Country Thresholds for Procurement Approaches and Methods (US$, thousands, as of June 2016) Works (including Turnkey, Supply, Goods, IT, and Non-consultant Selection of Selection of and Installation of Plant and Services Consultant Consultant Equipment and Public Private (Firms) (Individual Partnerships) Consultants) Open Open RfQ Open Open RfQ International International International National International National Selection Selection > < < > < < Consulting Consulting Services Services (IC) > < US$10 US$10 US$0.3 US$2.0 US$2.0 US$0.3 US$1.0 million US$0.3 million million million million million million million Source: World Bank Guidance Thresholds for Procurement Approaches and Methods by Country (Section III B). (b) Prequalification. None anticipated though bid packages will aggregate requirements wherever necessary, and bidding, evaluation, and contract award will largely be on individual lot basis whose individual contract sum and complexity may not require prequalification. (c) Reference to (if any) POM/procurement manual. A procurement manual has been prepared and will be updated to meet the requirements of AF under GEWEL as part of the PIM. It will be used by Zambia GEWEL to guide implementation of procurement activities under the project. The Procurement Plan will also form part of the PIM. (d) Any other special procurement arrangements (including advance procurement and retroactive financing, if applicable): use of NGOs anticipated for implementation of some specialized aspects of each of the components under GEWEL, should the market prove unresponsive. (e) TOR for all consultancy contracts as well as all single-source selections, irrespective of the contract value will be subject to prior review. (f) Short list of consultants will be in accordance with the provisions of the National Procurement Framework clause 7.17 not less than five and not more than eight. Exceptions are also governed by this same clause. (g) Any other special selection arrangements. None. (h) Procurement approach: The information on the procurement methods and approach are provided in the Procurement Regulations in Section IV Table 1 Approved Selection Methods: Goods, Works, and Non-Consulting Services and in Section VII Table 2 Approved Selection methods Consulting Services. 40. Procurement risk mitigation measures. Based on the PRAMS, the main risks and proposed risk mitigation measures are shown in table 2.3. Page 64 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Table 2.3. PRAMS Findings Recommendations and Action Plan – MCDSS, MOGE, and MOG Required Risk Mitigation Measures Action by Assessment Risk Rating Finding Risk or Whom and Area Recommendations When PRAMS Findings and Recommendations for MCDSS, MOGE, and MOG Internal Substantial Though the Public Inadequate Dissemination and Assigned on manuals and Procurement Act application of access to June 6, 2019, clarity of the (PPA) and country manuals/instructions; to be procurement Regulations exist, procurement mentorship/pupilage completed process and the PIM regulations. and capacity-building by June 30, includes the Possible programs for skills 2020, to procurement cycle mismanagement development and ZPPA management, the of procurement application of Director PIU staff are not process and manuals and Monitoring trained in roles and delays. procurement process and procurement for PIU staff as well Compliance aspects as the procurement (DM&C) and committee head Procurement and Supplies Units (PSUs) Recordkeeping High No long-term Difficult to Records to be stated Assigned on and document system for record audit, review, in POM/PIM and for June 6, 2019, management management and resolve duration of to be system according to disputes auditing filing completed statutes. practices; by June 30, Records are not training in data 2020, to the protected from loss management/filing head PSUs and access. procurement specialists Bid evaluation Substantial Due diligence for Inadequate Improve due Assigned on bidder evaluation and diligence of winning June 6, 2019, recommended for award. bidder prior to to be award not routinely Inadequate awarding. Training in completed conducted justification for procurement red by June 30, rejections. flags and fraud and 2020. Heads Delays in contract Repeat corruption. Train PSUs and awards lead to cost evaluation and evaluation PIU escalation, award time delays and committees on procurement may vary with scope rebidding. evaluation practices specialists in bidding and integrity issues. documents Contract Substantial Weak institutional Implementation Assign and train Assigned on management and staff capacity delays increase responsible June 6, 2019, and for contract cost and claims, procurement and to be administration management. Staff due to slow, technical staff in completed unfamiliar with decision making, contract by June 30, contractual contract management; 2020 to Page 65 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Required Risk Mitigation Measures Action by Assessment Risk Rating Finding Risk or Whom and Area Recommendations When obligations and amendments, improve payment ZPPA DM&C rights. Noted delays and payments. system; use contract and heads for contract management tools PSUs amendments and and update PIM; approvals establish contract milestones and M&E system Staff capacity Substantial Inadequate capacity Implementation Staff training in Assigned on and experience for will be slow, and competitive bidding June 6, 2019, competitive bidding actions and evaluation to be for complex high repeated to practices. completed value procurements comply with The World Bank to by June 30, requirements. provide 2020, to implementation ZPPA DM&C support and training. and heads PSUs and World Bank Note: ZPPA = Zambia Public Procurement Authority. Assessment Summary 41. The MCDSS, MOGE, and MOG Agency Risk Rating is Substantial risk with residual risk after implementing the proposed risk mitigation measures of Moderate risk. Risk Rating Summary 42. The World Bank carried out a procurement risk assessment for the MCDSS, MOGE, and MOG using the World Bank’s online system (PRAMS on June 6, 2019). 43. The World Bank noted that the MCDSS, MOGE, and MOG are currently implementing agencies of the World Bank-funded GEWEL and in the case of the MOGE the ZEEP as well. The current projects have allowed the MCDSS, MOGE, and MOG to acquire some minimum exposure and skills in project, procurement, and contract management. The activities proposed under the new project however represent significant increase in resources and the possibility of increased complexity and risk for which additional capacity building for the MCDSS, MOGE, and MOG should be necessary, including implementation support from the World Bank as needed. Though some areas of High Risk and Substantial Risk have been identified in the risk evaluation areas, the overall procurement risk is deemed Substantial Risk. The risk areas requiring implementation of mitigation measures by the GRZ are in the following areas (a) internal manuals and clarity of the procurement systems, (b) record keeping and document management system, (c) bid evaluation, (d) contract management and administration, and (e) staff capacity. Page 66 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Summary of Key Risk Mitigation Measures • Organize dissemination of the procurement guidelines effort and improved accessibility to manuals and instructions; • Clearly describe what records should be kept in the contract file, preferably in POM/PIM, and for how long; • Agency to increase due diligence of winning bidder before awarding. The World Bank staff use the online Fraud and Corruption Red Flag Tool and or raise awareness of evaluation committees on integrity issues in procurement; • Sensitive management and accounting staff; • Engage a consultant to train appropriate staff in contract management tools and manuals and use tools; • Assign contract mangers for each contract, train the contract mangers on key aspects of contractual rights and obligations and deliverables. Establish system to monitor and expedite contract modifications or change orders. Areas for Improvements for the GEWEL AF based on Lessons Implementing GEWEL 44. Review and enhancement of the management and accountability systems for the SCT and SWL programs. The proposed AF to GEWEL will add a sub-component for the SCT, which was not part of the parent project. The ongoing SCT program being implemented by the MCDSS through the Social Welfare Department has had FM and procurement problems. It is noted that the systems for the implementation of the SCT have been weak and require to be improved. The GEWEL AF will therefore require providing resources for improving the management and accountability structures including internal and external audits and procurement, especially given the increased resources and expanded geographic coverage of the project. Regarding procurement, the key mitigating measures identified above are anticipated to address the key weaknesses. 45. Review of the SWL payment systems and the SCT payment systems have identified weakness that may have been noted in the previous financing models. The lessons learned will be used to strengthen the financing and payments systems for both programs, particularly the SCT. Notable among these is for any service providers which will be used to make payments to be identified in a transparent and accountable manner either through open market beneficiary choice of which PSP they want to receive their payment through or using appropriate procurement methods based on the use of standard procurement methods for management services. Currently, SWL makes payments to beneficiaries through the services that are regularly provided through banks or mobile phone companies (mobile money). In this model, the beneficiaries select their provider and the service standards of that provider, together with the fee structure, is based on the normal, publicly available standards for that service. Should there be a need to consider a different arrangement, in which one provider is selected to make payments under GEWEL, this will be guided by the standard procurement methods for management services. Page 67 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) 46. Use of staff of the Government as project implementation support personnel. The AF will be implemented based on the application of the Procurement Regulations. Section VII Approved Selection Methods Clause 7.32 “Project Implementation Support Personnel” reads “Project implementation staff, individuals contracted by the Borrower to support implementation other than individual consulting positions identified in the legal agreement may be selected by the Borrower according to its personnel hiring procedures for such activities as revealed and found acceptable by the Bank.” The use of this clause would enable staff of the Government to be identified and form part of the project implementation personnel whose emoluments would be eligible to be financed from the proceeds of the credit. Technological Aspects and Improvements in Public Procurement 47. The activities to be supported under the project and the project implementation itself should allow for the use of technical design of the operations that incorporate and address technological design options as currently in place, which represent global advancements in the field generally including disruptive technologies. The implementation team may take advantage of the flexibilities that may result from the use of the Procurement Regulations in this regard. An example of this is the e-Government Procurement (e-GP) portal. 48. The e-GP is an end-to-end system covering complete procurement processes and cycle launched by the Republican President on July 8, 2016. The national e-GP portal (that is, https://eprocure.zppa.org.zm/epps/home.do) of the GRZ is developed, owned, and being operated by the ZPPA. The e-GP system is hosted in the ZPPA Data Center. The e-GP system provides an online platform to carry out the procurement activities by the public agencies—procuring agencies and procuring entities (PEs). The e-GP system is a single web portal through which procuring agencies, PEs, and bidders, and all other stakeholders are performing their procurement-related activities using a dedicated secured web- based dashboard. Use of e-GP and STEP under the Proposed Project 49. Though the e-GP is now fully operational, currently the e-GP is not customized and integrated with the World Bank’s STEP system. The rollout of the e-GP for use under various public entities of the Government has not happened in earnest due to limitation of funds for the rollout to all PEs and information and communication technology infrastructure and connectivity limitations for some PEs. Grievance and Redress 50. A single GRM has been established for GEWEL, which is financed from each of the components above. The GRM is used by KGS and SWL to collect complaints from beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries in project areas and is coordinated by the MOG. The AF and restructuring will dedicate further resources to roll-out this GRM in an accelerated manner. In order to enhance the ability of the GRM to handle all types of complaints, including serious complaints such as GBV, the GRM consists of three different channels: First, a locked box into which written complaints can be anonymously submitted in any language, collected regularly by district officers, entered into a complaints registry, and dealt with locally where possible, while also submitting to headquarters (HQ) for monitoring purposes or further action in the case of serious complaints. The boxes will be placed in all KGS schools as well and in another location chosen by the community, such as the local church, health post or community center. Second complaints can be Page 68 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) reported in person to trusted community focal points, selected by the beneficiaries and local community through a participatory process. Community focal points, approved by KGS girls and SWL women, will be trained on GBV best practices for receiving complaints, including survivor centric approach and how to appropriately refer different types of complaints. Third, a telephone hotline for GBV complaints in collaboration with an NGO (Lifeline Childline Zambia). Childline is an existing national hotline for GBV and HIV as well as other child protection related issues. Any child can currently call the hotline (to the toll-free number 116) and receive counselling over the phone, referral to appropriate services in their district and case management until the case is closed. GEWEL will collaborate with Childline to ensure awareness of their service in all KGS districts and to receive reporting from Childline on cases reported in KGS districts or involving KGS beneficiaries. Complaints received through all three channels will be registered in the GRM module of the MIS system. GRM focal points have been assigned within the MCDSS, MOG, and MOGE line structures and are responsible to ensure that complaints are collected, appropriately referred, dealt with and reported upwards. The GRM roll out also includes communication and sensitization efforts, including on GBV, at the school and community level and a survivor fund to ensure the needs of GBV survivors are met. Overall, the GRM includes a diversity of reporting channels that are well situated to ensure confidentiality, accessibility and security for complainants. 51. Ongoing efforts will be taken to collect beneficiary and community feedback on GRM performance. In particular, the feedback from girls and women will be used to further strengthen the GRM to meet their needs. The project will also explore enabling strategies such as participatory assessment with the community and outreach to the community to strengthen citizen’s ability to provide feedback on the quality of the services delivered by SWL and KGS. To complement the GRM, the AF will also roll-out SWL and KGS Service Charters aimed to improve bottom-up accountability as a way of pressing for program performance, ensuring communities are informed of their rights and responsibilities with regards to GEWEL and as part of the process of strengthening the use of the GRM. The Charters are particularly clear about the rights of SWL women and KGS girls. To support awareness raising for the GRM, picture posters have been prepared and will be used during community sensitization sessions and posted in public sites to act as prompts to non-literate beneficiaries. Periodic refresher awareness-raising will also be undertaken to confirm and remind beneficiaries of their understanding of the GRM and of their rights and responsibilities. Additionally, the AF will also seek to deepen citizen engagement through engagement in platforms for dialogue between CSOs, Government and WB. Monitoring and evaluation 52. The MOG coordinates the regular monitoring and reporting of the GEWEL project which assesses progress in implementation. These reports inform the World Bank’s six-monthly implementation support missions as well as oversight by the Project Steering Committee. This monitoring is complemented by a rigorous independent impact evaluation on the SWL component as well as range of process reviews of the SWL and KGS. The proposed Additional Financing will further strengthen the monitoring of the GEWEL project, with an emphasis on introducing independent spot checks for and an independent impact evaluation of the KGS component. 53. In addition to the monitoring and evaluation carried-out by the Government for the proposed Additional Financing, the World Bank task team is providing intensive implementation support and frequent supervision. Page 69 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) ANNEX 3: STATUS OF PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION 1. GEWEL is on track to meet its Project Development Objective. GEWEL aims to support the Government of the Republic of Zambia (GRZ) to increase access to livelihood support for women and access to secondary education for disadvantaged adolescent girls in extremely poor households in selected districts. This IDA- funded project of US$65 million was approved in May 2015 and became effective in April 2016. Progress toward achievement of the PDO has been rated Moderately Satisfactory or above since project effectiveness. Key progress highlights include: (a) Component 1: Supporting Women’s Livelihoods, implemented by the Ministry of Community Development and Social Services (MCDSS), is on track to provide 75,000 women from extremely poor households with a package consisting of life and business skills training, a productive grant equivalent to US$225, mentorship, and support to form savings groups by the end of 2020. The SWL approach was designed based on rigorous international evidence demonstrating that comprehensive, ‘big push’ interventions can address multiple constraints faced by extremely poor people and help them improve incomes and other developmental outcomes (see annex 3). Building on this approach, the component has delivered this package at scale, in select districts across all provinces, and exclusively through government structures.53 The component made several adaptations to reduce costs and achieve implementation at scale, including digitizing payments to beneficiaries, organizing group- based instead of individual coaching, and condensing the duration of the intervention. The impact of this government-led productive inclusion program is being measured through a randomized impact evaluation, which further experiments with package variation and assesses broader, community- level spillover effects.54 The SWL is being rolled out in 51 districts in all 10 provinces across three phases. As of August 2019, 12,748 Phase 1 beneficiaries have received the full SWL package and 20,444 Phase 2 beneficiaries have been trained, with 12,989 having received the first installment of the productive grant and 7,455 having received their second installment. Another 41,014 Phase 3 beneficiaries are scheduled to be enrolled in the project by the end of 2019.55 The SWL has made substantial investments in system strengthening and capacity building of the MCDSS. Notably, the SWL has put in place an innovative choice-based payment system (described in more detail below), management information system (MIS), and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems, as well as a grievance redress mechanism (GRM). (b) Component 2: Keeping Girls in School, implemented by the Ministry of General Education (MOGE), provides school fees56 for 16,239 female secondary students across 16 districts in all 10 provinces, exceeding its original end-of-project target of 14,000. In 2019, the KGS is enrolling an additional 9,000 girls in 11 new districts. In parallel, the KGS has sought to strengthen systems to better support schools (through regular supervision visits to schools by district teams) and improve attendance rates of girls (through an innovative case management system that aims to link schools with community- 53 The GRZ was the second government in Sub-Saharan Africa, following Ethiopia, to implement a productive inclusion or so- called graduation program at scale through government systems. 54 A baseline report for the impact evaluation was completed in May 2019. The midline is expected in early 2020. 55 These beneficiaries will be selected from SCT households to meet the Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP) target of layering consumption support (SCT) and productive programming for at least 41 percent of extreme poor households. 56 School fees also include fees for formal boarding schools managed by MOGE. Page 70 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) based social workers). The development of the case management system will allow school guidance counselors to support out-of-school girls reentering school and to identify and support those girls who are in school and at risk of dropping out. Given the need for additional capacity to further strengthen these systems, the KGS has shifted toward a more streamlined bursary payment modality of annual instead of termly payments. To ensure strong oversight of these payments, MOGE has developed a KGS-MIS that hosts data from school enrolment to payments and will soon include all monitoring data from schools to allow for improved tracking of attendance, dropouts, and performance. To complement this, the ministry is contracting a firm to carry out independent monitoring of schools and girls receiving KGS support. (c) Component 3: Institutional Strengthening and Systems Building has supported the Ministry of Gender (MOG) to (i) oversee and coordinate the implementation of Components 1 and 2 and (ii) strengthen the national gender policy, which has included investments in the capacity of ministries to mainstream gender. This component has also supported the MCDSS to invest in its core social protection systems. Three distinct innovations are currently being implemented by the MCDSS through GEWEL: (i) An innovative choice-based electronic payment (e-payment) system, which allows SWL beneficiaries to choose their preferred payment service providers (PSPs), has been designed, piloted, and rolled out. To date, a total of 34,510 payments (roughly US$3.3 million) have been made through this system directly into the accounts of beneficiaries. The choice-based model allows the GRZ to work with multiple PSPs, all of which are regulated by the Bank of Zambia (BOZ), to provide e-payment services nationally. The choice given to beneficiaries to select from among a variety of e- payment providers is central to the model, with most beneficiaries having chosen mobile money providers (82 percent in Phase 1 to 77 percent in Phase 2).57 (ii) A Single Registry of Beneficiaries (SRB) to improve coherence and targeting across programs has been developed by the MCDSS and piloted in 17 districts. The GRZ is currently building on the SRB to develop an integrated program management system called the Zambia Integrated Social Protection Information System (ZISPIS). This system will integrate further programs across several ministries and will also contain a payment module able to disburse funds to beneficiaries electronically. (iii) A Single Window is being piloted in six districts, with the support of the World Bank, United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), and the International Labour Organization. Through the Single Window, the GRZ intends to provide a one-stop shop for the delivery of social sector programs. This is an innovative model where the districts are designing and implementing their own priorities, building on the principles of decentralization that the GRZ is rolling out. 57See Case Study on The Future of G2P Payments: Expanding Customer Choice in Zambia” by Silvia Baur-Yazbeck, Craig Kilfoil and Ioana Botea, CGAP Background Documents, March 2019, for more information. Page 71 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) 2. Most of the indicators in the Results Framework are either on track or surpassing their targets. All PDO indicators are either on track or exceed their targets. More than half of all intermediate indicators (10 out of 15) are also either on track or exceed their targets. Data for one intermediate indicator are not yet available and two of them are lagging; the government staff and World Bank task team are closely following up to ensure that they are brought back on track. 3. The project complies with key legal covenants, including financial and procurement obligations, and there is strong commitment to improve in lagging areas. The latest ISR rated the financial and procurement management of the project Moderately Satisfactory. All fiduciary activities are being carried out following the World Bank guidelines as reflected in the Project Implementation Manual (PIM). The project financial reports are up-to-date, and the submissions have been satisfactory, although with some delays. The external financial audit for the year ending December 31, 2018, submitted before the due date, was acceptable and the Government has resolved most of the issues identified by the auditor, with further work ongoing by the Ministries and Auditor General to resolve outstanding issues. On procurement, there has been strong commitment from the Government to continue to reduce administrative delays that have been affecting the efficiency of internal procurement processing and approvals. A timebound action plan on procurement has been put in place and Project Implementation Unit (PIU) staff continue developing their capacity through World Bank-administered procurement trainings. Page 72 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) ANNEX 4: ECONOMIC APPRAISAL 1. This economic appraisal contains two sections. Section 1 analyzes returns to investment of the KGS and SWL components, whereas Section 2 is a literature review of all the existing impact evidence on SWL-type programs from around the world. Section 1: GEWEL AF Return on Investment Analysis Benefits for Human Capital Outcomes: Evidence from the Impact Evaluations 2. The SWL component builds on an expanding evidence base of the impacts of such programs across a range of outcomes. As discussed in the following paragraphs, the design of this component is based on the comprehensive approach to economic inclusion, commonly known as productive inclusion, or ‘graduation’. This approach has shown to produce long-lasting and even magnifying impacts on its beneficiaries’ livelihoods, earnings, consumption, and psychosocial health, two years, four years, and seven years after the intervention (meta-analysis).58 The evidence on the impacts of this approach on children’s well-being has been limited until recently. Emerging evidence from Burundi,59 Afghanistan,60 and Bangladesh61 suggests significant educational and health improvements for children of beneficiaries of the ‘graduation’ program. 3. This growing body of evidence shows that the impacts of such programs are heterogeneous across the extreme poor, with the smallest impact on the poorest of the poor. This was studied more carefully in Bandiera et al. 2015 among the beneficiaries of the Bangladesh program. As shown in figure 4.1, among beneficiaries, the impacts are greater for those beneficiaries that had a higher starting level of consumption (figure 4.1.A). This is also true for other variables and their initial levels. While the forthcoming impact evaluation on the SWL will provide evidence of any such differential effect in Zambia, the decision to layer the SWL on SCT aims to provide all households with a minimum base income upon which the productive impacts may be built. 58 Banerjeet, Abhijit, Esther Duflo, Nathanael Goldberg, Dean Karlan, Robert Osei, William Parienté, Jeremy Shapiro, Bram Thuysbaert, and Christopher Udry. 2015. “A Multifaceted Program Causes Lasting Progress for the Very Poor: Evidence from Six Countries.” Science. 59 Roelen, Keetie, and Carmen Leon-Himmelstine. 2019. Graduating Out of Poverty Across Generations: Unpacking Children’s Well-being Trajectories in Burundi. Children and Society, National Children’s Bureau. 60 Bedoya, Guadalupe, Aidan Coville, Johannes Haushofer, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, and Jeremy Shapiro. 2019. “No Household Left Behind: Afghanistan Targeting the Ultra Poor Impact Evaluation.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8877. 61 Bandiera et al. Forthcoming. Page 73 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Figure 4.1. Four-Year Quantile Treatment Effects Source: Bandiera, Oriana, Robin Burgess, Narayan Das, Selim Gulesci, Imran Rasul, and Munshi Sulaiman. 2016. “Labor Markets and Poverty in Village Enterprises.” London School of Economics 4. While causal evidence on bursary programs such as the KGS is only beginning to emerge, available studies point to potentially positive impacts on education and health outcomes. A scholarship program that paid full tuition and fees at school in Ghana62 had large impacts on health and education among boys and girls. The education impacts on girls and boys were similar—26 percentage point higher likelihood of secondary school completion, 1.26 more years of schooling and experience an improvement in test scores (0.14 standard deviations and 0.12 standard deviations higher reading and math, respectively). These improved secondary schooling outcomes lead to higher impacts (8 years after the intervention) on girls’ health outcomes than for boys (much of this show no statistically significant impact on boys)—27 percent reduction in fertility rate, 18 percent less likely to have an unwanted first pregnancy, and 12 percentage point higher likelihood of preventative health behavior (handwashing with soap, bed 62Duflo, Esther, Pascaline Dupas and Michael Kremer. 2017. “The Impact of Free Secondary Education: Experimental Evidence from Ghana.” Working Paper Page 74 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) net use, and mosquito repellent use). These findings are similar to findings from Kenya63 where researchers find a 12-percentage point reduction in teen pregnancy among secondary school finishers, and higher than the 5-percentage point reduction in teen pregnancy as a result of a conditional cash transfer program aimed at bringing dropouts back to school in Malawi.64 5. The SCT program, when delivered regularly, is expected to play an important65 role in enhancing the impact of the KGS and SWL components. By stabilizing the consumption levels of the poorest households, SCT can support the provision of school bursaries and livelihood investments realize their expected impact on human capital and productive outcomes. For the KGS, the original design of GEWEL included this interlinking of bursary support with the SCT by targeting adolescent girls belonging to SCT households. This was built on the premise that besides school and boarding fees, there are other costs involved in attending school such as uniforms, books, food, and transport, among others, and the cash transfer provided through the SCT could defray some of these costs. This premise continues to hold and in fact has potentially become more important with a reduction in school fees as these forms a smaller share of total education costs. A study of 16 Sub-Saharan African countries shows that households contribute to between 44 percent and 49 percent of the cost of attending secondary schools.66 Hence, a reduction in school fees or even its elimination does not necessarily lead to improved enrollment, as evidenced in Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, and Tanzania.67 Non-school fees are, therefore, an important barrier to attending secondary school. A recent analysis of MOGE’s EMIS shows that as of 2017, early pregnancy (47 percent), marriage (13 percent), and economic conditions (18 percent) are the biggest reported reasons for adolescent girls’ dropout. 6. These potential benefits from the SCT are likely to be felt across other dimensions of well-being. The evidence on the impact of cash transfer programs on reducing fertility, delaying marriage, and less risky sexual behaviors are well documented in the meta-analysis study of cash transfer impact.68 Evidence from Africa shows how cash transfers can lead to improvements in educational outcomes such as enrollment, attendance, and cognitive skills among secondary school students, with these gains being pronounced in upper primary and secondary school.69 Additionally, evaluations of multiple programs provide evidence on improvement in consumption and productive investments including from the precursors to the SCT, the Child Grant Program, and the Multiple Category Targeted Program. In these Zambian cash transfers, it is found that for every kwacha transferred to a beneficiary, consumption 63 Ozier, Owen. 2018. ‘’The Impact of Secondary Schooling in Kenya: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis.’’ Journal of Human Resources 64 Baird, Sarah, Craig McIntosh, and Berk Ozler. 2010. “Cash or Condition? Evidence from a Randomized Cash Transfer Program.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5259. 65 An impact evaluation of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) showed that by combining PSNP and the Household Asset Building Program (HABP), PSNP was able to enhance the impact of HABP. 66 Zubairi, Asma, and Pauline Rose. 2019. Equitable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa. Background Paper, Mastercard Foundation. 67 Zubairi, Asma, and Pauline Rose. 2019. Equitable Financing of Secondary Education in Sub-Saharan Africa. Background Paper, Mastercard Foundation. 68 Bastagli, Francesca, Jessica Hagen-Zanker, Luke Harman, Valentina Barca, Georgina Sturge, Tanja Schmidt, and Luca Pellerano. 2016. Cash Transfer: What Does the Evidence Say? A Rigorous Review of Programme Impact and of the Role of Design and Implementation Features. Overseas Development Institute with Oxford Policy Management. 69 Beegle, Kathleen, Aline Coudouel, and Emma Monsalve (Eds.). 2018. Realizing the Full Potential of Social Safety Nets in Africa . World Bank. Page 75 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) increased by ZMK 0.67 over and above the value of the transfer itself.70 An analysis of the impact of these cash transfers on productive outcomes—assets, income and revenue, and finance and debt—show statistically significant and positive impacts. This additional analysis points to households having undertaken productive investments from the cash transfer, leading to additional income and consumption in addition to the transfer itself. This is in line with findings from a similar cash transfer program in Malawi where they find multiplier effects on household consumption through productive investments in livestock and durables.71 However, these benefits only materialize when cash transfers are delivered regularly and are of sufficient value.72 Cost Benefit Analysis: Simulating Impacts of GEWEL in Zambia 7. A cost-benefit analysis of SWL and KGS bursary support was undertaken building on the methodology employed as part of the original economic appraisal for GEWEL. This was done for two reasons: first, the analysis aimed to reflect new evidence of the benefit (or impact) of such programs that has become available since 2014 when GEWEL was originally designed, and second, to update the ‘costs’ of each component. In terms of costs, the school fees have recently been reduced under the KGS component. In addition, since the AF proposes to continue operating in the existing GEWEL districts, a reduction in cost per beneficiary is envisaged for these districts as certain fixed operating costs (for example, cost of purchase of vehicles for monitoring) have already been incurred here. This is not the case for new districts in which the AF proposes to expand. 8. Methodology. The return on investment is calculated as the total number of years required to recoup the investment made through the AF. This analysis is based on increased earnings only because the causal link between other nonmonetized impact indicators such as women’s empowerment, psychosocial health, and earnings is less clear and difficult to express in monetary terms. The methodology, including the assumptions used, are set out in the following paragraphs: (a) Cost per beneficiary. This is the total cost of providing an intervention per beneficiary (including administrative costs). For the SWL, it is assumed that all the costs are incurred at period 0 whereas for the KGS, the net present value of their annual costs is calculated. (b) Expected benefits per beneficiary. Baseline earnings of beneficiaries were derived from the most recently available household data in Zambia (LCMS 2015). The hypothesized percentage increase in earnings were obtained from available rigorous causal evidence. The base year for the calculations is 2019. As the latest available data on actual earnings is for 2014 (from LCMS 2015), beneficiary income is projected until 2019 by using national GDP per capita growth rate (earnings and growth are in real term) between 2015 and 2019, which is equivalent to 0.4 percent annually. This projection assumes that the real income of beneficiaries grew at a similar rate as the country’s GDP per capita, a pattern that was observed between 2010 and 2015 as discussed below (see Option 3). This method was 70 Handa, Sudhanshu, Luisa Natali, David Seidenfeld, Gelson Tembo, Benjamin Davis. 2018. ‘’Can Unconditional Cash Transfers Raise Long-term Living Standards? Evidence from Zambia.’’ Journal of Development Economics 71 Ibid. 72 Davis, Benjamin, Sudhanshu Handa, Nicola Hypher, Natalia Rossi, Paul Winters and Jennifer Yablonski. 2016. From Evidence to Action: The Story of Cash Transfers and Impact Evaluations in Sub-Saharan Africa. FAO, UNICEF, and Oxford University Press Page 76 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) adopted following a consideration of alternatives, which include, first, using a panel dataset to obtain income growth for individuals that met the GEWEL criteria. However, no such panel dataset was readily available. Second, using LCMS 2010 to estimate income growth rate of those individuals that met GEWEL eligibility criteria in both 2010 and 2015. Income data available for 2010 was not reliable73 and hence not usable. Third, use per capita consumption growth rate of those that met GEWEL eligibility criteria in both 2010 and 2015. This approach yields an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent. With marginal room for savings growth, this potentially translates to an income growth rate comparable to a 3.5 percent annual growth in GDP per capita in the same time horizon. Hence, the choice of using GDP per capita growth rate. 9. Baseline earnings from LCMS 2015 were estimated as follows: • SWL component. The average total (non-zero) nonfarm individual income and the households’ farm income were used, for poor rural female-headed households with 3+ children. • KGS component. The average individual nonfarm earnings of all rural poor women age 19– 64 years who have fewer than 8 years of schooling (non-zero income) was used (as seen in table 4.1). (c) Net present value of investment. The net present value of the investment in each beneficiary group is computed by comparing the estimated program cost to the projected earnings of the beneficiary. To obtain the projected earnings, the percent increase in earnings is applied, as shown in table 4.1 to the average baseline earnings of the eligible population. Table 2.1. Basic Parameters for Return on Investment Analysis Program Cost Baseline (including admin Earnings in Component cost) per Increase in Earnings Source (earnings increase) ZMK Beneficiary per (2019) year in ZMK 12 percent per year ≤2 Banerjee et al. 2015, Bandiera et al. SWL 8,024 5,760 years; 8 percent per 2017 year > 2 years Total cost when school fees are 15% for an extra year KGS 4,041 paid = 786; Psacharopoulos and Patrinos of secondary school Total costs when boarding fees 73Household IDs differed between household and individual datasets, and hence could not be merged. The raw LCMS 2010 data, which has individual incomes has no clear unique identifiers of households to which individuals belong. It also lacks unique individual IDs. This makes the summation of nonfarm income by households hard to replicate in the 2010 data as was done for LCMS 2015 data. Page 77 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Program Cost Baseline (including admin Earnings in Component cost) per Increase in Earnings Source (earnings increase) ZMK Beneficiary per (2019) year in ZMK (including school (2004)74; Arne Bigsten et al (2000)75; fees) are paid = Mphuka and Simumba (2012)76 4,716 10. According to the latest technical note on discount rates to be used for economic analysis of World Bank projects, discount rate of 6 percent is used with an extreme case of 12 percent. 77 Moreover, as no program achieves all its aims perfectly, and a proportion of beneficiaries will dropout before the completion of the intervention, it is likely to limit the returns to the investment overall. For the KGS, this is shown by presenting the returns for beneficiaries who attended 1 to 4 years of schooling, which allows estimating the benefits of each additional year of schooling. For the SWL, hypothetical failure rates of 5 percent, 10 percent, and 15 percent are introduced. In other words, it is assumed that these shares of beneficiaries receive the grant but that their investments yield no returns (for example, enterprises failed) or that the grant was not invested at all. Though, based on monitoring reports from GEWEL, there is evidence that few girls and women dropout of the KGS and SWL, once they are enrolled into the programs. Results 11. Assuming that all beneficiaries invest their productive grant, it would take between 5.8 –6.5 years to recoup the investment made through the SWL through increased beneficiary earnings. These estimates are in line with the most conservative earnings growth estimates reported in the economic appraisal for GEWEL. This result changes by less than one year when the discount rate is increased to 12 percent. Table 2.2 also shows the different rates of return that would arise if the SWL operates in existing districts or expands to new districts as there are higher costs associated with operating in new districts. The difference between columns A and B shows the efficiency gains from continuing to operate in the original districts, between 15 percent and 17 percent (or about one-year equivalent). 74 Psacharopoulos, George, and Harry Anthony Patrinos. 2004. Returns to Investment in Education: A Further Update. Education Economics. 75 Bigsten, Arne, Anders Isaksson, Måns Söderbom, Paul Collier, Albert Zeufack, Stefan Dercon, Marcel Fafchamps, Jan Willem Gunning, Francis Teal, Simon Appleton, Bernard Gauthier, Abena Oduro, Remco Oostendorp, and Cathy Pattillo. 2000. Rates of Return on Physical and Human Capital in Africa’s Manufacturing Sector. Economic Development and Cultural Change. 76 Mphuka, Chrispin, and Joseph Simumba. 2012. “Estimating Returns to Education in Zambia.” Working Paper No. 11. Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research. 77 Note was prepared in 2016 by Marianne Fay (Sustainable Development Practice Group), Stephane Hallegate (Sustainable Development Practice Group), Aart Kraay (Development Economics and Chief Economist), and Adrien Vogt-Schilb (Sustainable Development Practice Group). Page 78 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Table 4.2. SWL Return on Investment Years to Recover Cost of Program Discount Rate Repeating GEWEL 51 districts Efficiency Gains (%) AND All New Districts (B) (B−A)/A (%) New Districts (A) 6 5.79 6.80 17.4 12 6.50 7.51 15.5 12. Estimates that incorporate a failure rate lead to a slight increase in the time required to recoup the investment. Table 4.3 presents these results. A standard discount rate of 6 percent and failure rates varying between 5 percent and 15 percent of beneficiaries are used. It is found that even if 5 percent of beneficiaries fail, the estimated increase in the income of the remaining beneficiaries as a result of the investments can recoup the SWL investment in 6.04 years, 3 months more than the base case 5.79 years. Similarly, at 15 percent failure rate, it takes only about 10 months more of successful beneficiaries’ earnings to recoup the SWL investment. These perceived losses are, in fact, lower than the gain from lower costs realized through continued operation in existing districts. Table 4.3. SWL Return on Investment, including Failure Rate Years to Recover Cost of Program (discount rate= 6%) Failure Rate (%) Repeating GEWEL 51 Districts Additional Years 5 6.04 0.25 (3 months) 10 6.31 0.52 (6.3 months) 15 6.61 0.82 (9.8 months) 13. For the KGS, while school fee per beneficiary is substantially lower than in GEWEL, the AF proposes to finance boarding facilities for a greater share of beneficiaries, yielding a recoup period of around 4 years. The school fees reduced by about 67 percent of the original cost recently. This implies that the investment could be recouped in around 1.5 years. Yet, given the likely need for boarding facilities among a larger share of KGS beneficiaries, the AF proposes to finance the cost of about 35 percent of KGS beneficiaries going forward.78 The overall average cost per beneficiary per year is ZMK 2,162 (the separate cost of school fees and boarding is reported in table 2.4). With this estimate, the investment in KGS can be recouped in 3.5–4.6 years depending on the discount rate applied. If all girls are to be supported with boarding facilities, the per beneficiary cost would increase and so would the number of years required to recoup this investment. The efficiency gains from continuing in the same districts as compared with operating in new districts is only 3.2 percent, significantly smaller than for SWL. 78 To date, GEWEL had financed boarding facilities for between 10 percent and 15 percent of KGS beneficiaries (the exact figures vary from year to year). The AF proposes to plan financing boarding facilities for a larger share of beneficiaries in an effort to support MOGE’s overall aim of moving more adolescent girls into such facilities as a means of reducing the risks th at they face in accessing secondary school. Page 79 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Table 4.4. KGS Return on Investment Total Cost Years to recover Years to recover cost of program Efficiency (School cost of program (repeating GEWEL 27 districts and new districts) Gains Fees + (new districts) Years of Boarding Schooling Cost, Support including Discount Rate 6% (B−A) / A Received Discount Rate 6% (A) Discount Rate 12% Admin (B) (%) Cost) in ZMK 1 2,162 4.06 4.63 4.19 3.19 2 4,323 3.89 4.57 4.01 3.20 3 6,485 3.71 4.49 3.83 3.20 4 8,646 3.54 4.42 3.65 3.21 Impact Analysis and Cost Effectiveness 14. While cost-benefit analysis presented in this section suggests that the returns to an investment in the GEWEL AF are viable, it does not consider the noneconomic impacts that may arise. Here the potential noneconomic impacts of the KGS and SWL are explored by estimating the impact per US$100 in spending across a range of outcomes. These results are shown in table 4.5 and are described in the following paragraphs. 15. To consider the potential impacts of the SWL on noneconomic outcomes, evidence from Bangladesh by Bandiera et al. (2016) is drawn on because this analysis shows the long-term impact results of a productive inclusion program with a design that is similar to the SWL and is one of the few such programs operating at a national scale. In seeking to explore these impacts of the KGS, Duflo et al. (2017) is drawn on due to lack of other studies of the causal estimates for a bursary program like the KGS. 16. While the impact of even similar programs can vary substantially across contexts, these studies provide benchmark estimates of the potential impacts of the KGS and SWL. By drawing on the Bangladesh study, it is found that a US$100 expenditure through a SWL-type intervention can lead to a 2- percentage point increase in probability of primary school completion, a 1.5 percentage point increase in probability of secondary school completion, and a 1.7 percentage point reduction in probability of stunting. Similarly, a US$100 expenditure through a KGS-type program could lead to a higher probability of secondary school completion by 5.4 percentage points, reduce likelihood of unwanted pregnancy by 2.4 percentage points, and fertility by 0.2 children. Page 80 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Table 4.5. Estimated Impact of GEWEL on Noneconomic Outcomes Section 2: Design of the SWL: Evidence and Lessons Introduction 17. BRAC in Bangladesh pioneered the approach of comprehensively tackling the multiple barriers to economic inclusion in 2002. Similar programs have since been implemented in 60 countries, many of them by national governments. At the heart of this form of programming is a comprehensive approach to tackling poverty and enhancing livelihoods. This is based on the experience that the extreme poor tend to face multiple challenges to meet their regular consumption needs and to develop a sustainable livelihood strategy. Figure 4.2 describes the classical approach to this type of model. Programs implemented across many countries have adapted this model to fit their specific context. According to this classical model, beneficiaries receive basic consumption support to meet their immediate consumption needs, after which they receive access to financial services in the form of savings groups or seed capital in the form of cash or kind (for example, livestock), training (hard and/ or soft skills), and ongoing mentoring that helps the implementer cater to the specific needs of each beneficiary household. Box 4.1 presents some salient features of the programs that have adopted this approach. Page 81 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Figure 4.2. Comprehensive Economic Inclusion Model (‘Graduation’ Model) 18. As described earlier, the proposed AF for GEWEL will adapt this model in Zambia by investing in consumption support through SCT as well as in specific subcomponents such as savings groups and mentoring of the existing SWL intervention under the parent project. Box 2.1. Salient Features of Comprehensive Economic Inclusion Programs Implemented Globally Currently, 99 programs are being implemented across 43 countries globally. About a third of these programs started between 2011 and 2015 and about half started in 2016 or later. Most of the programs that started in 2016 and later are pilots, while seven are scale-ups. Five of the scale-ups are in Sub-Saharan Africa. A third of these programs are implemented by the Government. The Government leads 35 programs in 23 countries, most of which began in or after 2016. About 70 percent of these programs build on existing government social safety nets or cash transfer programs. While led by the Government, many of these initiatives are implemented by NGOs (43 percent of government-led programs). About 31 percent of programs are financed by the Government. Beneficiary targeting is done primarily based on the poverty status and is implemented in rural areas. About 97 percent of programs select extreme poor households. Close to 70 percent of programs use US$1.9 a day poverty line with 60 percent of programs using other poverty measures such as national poverty line and community/program staff-based assessment of poverty, such as food insecurity, lack of assets, women-headed households, and so on. About 10 percent of programs adopt or build on the definition of poverty used by another (usually government run) initiative to which the graduation program is linked. Partly driven by the demographic of poverty, about 90 percent of programs are implemented in rural areas. Majority of programs serve more women than men. About 29 percent of all programs target only women, with women constituting more than 50 percent of all beneficiaries for another 51 percent of programs. About half of the ongoing government-led programs target only women. About 79 percent of programs explicitly aim to improve women’s empowerment. Other vulnerable groups bein g targeted include youths, people with disabilities, indigenous people, refugees/internally displaced people, and the elderly. Source: Partnership for Economic Inclusion. 2018 State of the Sector. Synthesis Report Page 82 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Impact of Comprehensive Economic Inclusion Models 19. As with the rise in the number of programs, since 2015 there have been multiple studies that look at the impact of such programs. This includes evidence from: • Six pilot studies in Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Pakistan, Peru, and Honduras (meta-analysis in Banerjee et al. (2015)79 and seven-year follow-up in India in Banerjee et al. (2016)80) • Nationwide rollout of the BRAC program in Bangladesh81 • Comparison of consumption support (through a lump-sum UCT) and the comprehensive economic inclusion program in South Sudan82 and Uganda83 • An investigation of the impact of this type of programming in a fragile context, Afghanistan84 • An investigation of the intergenerational impact of this type of program in Afghanistan,85 Burundi (mixed-methods study),86 and Bangladesh87 Short- and Medium-term Impact 20. The program broadens the economic opportunities among women, shifting them from casual wage labor to self-employment. In Bangladesh, four years after the program commenced, the hours devoted to livestock rearing increased by 360 percent simultaneously with a reduction in hours spent in casual agricultural labor (17 percent) and maid work (36 percent). Overall labor supply increased by 22 percent indicating that the poor had surplus work capacity that the program was able to use. This is in line with the findings in Afghanistan where the time spent on livestock rearing and women’s labor participation increase and the six country meta-analyses where self-employment rises, time spent rearing livestock increases as does total time spent working, while casual labor reduces. 21. Overall earnings rose in response to shifting employment mix. Bandiera et al. (2016) find that earnings from casual agricultural labor and maid work reduce in response to falling labor allocated to 79 Banerjeet, Abhijit, Esther Duflo, Nathanael Goldberg, Dean Karlan, Robert Osei, William Parienté, Jeremy Shapiro, Bram Thuysbaert, and Christopher Udry. 2015. “A Multifaceted Program Causes Lasting Progress for the Very Poor: Evidence from Six Countries.” Science 80 Banerjee, Abhijit, Esther Duflo, Raghabendra Chattopadhyay, and Jeremy Shapiro. 2016. The Long-term Impacts of a “Graduation” Program: Evidence from West Bengal. MIT Cambridge USA. 81 Bandiera, Oriana, Robin Burgess, Narayan Das, Selim Gulesci, Imran Rasul, and Munshi Sulaiman. 2016. “Labor Markets and Poverty in Village Enterprises.” London School of Economics 82 Chowdhury, Reajul, Elliott Collins, Ethan Ligon, and Munshi Sulaiman. 2017. “Valuing Assets Provided to Low-Income Households in South Sudan.” Working Paper 83 Sedlmayr, Richard, Anuj Shah, and Munshi Sulaiman. 2017. “Cash-Plus: Poverty Impacts of Transfer-Based Intervention Alternatives.” Center for the Study of African Economics Working Paper WPS/2017-15-2. 84 Bedoya, Guadalupe, Aidan Coville, Johannes Haushofer, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, and Jeremy Shapiro. 2019. “No Household Left Behind: Afghanistan Targeting the Ultra Poor Impact Evaluation.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8877 85Ibid. 86 Roelen, Keetie, and Carmen Leon-Himmelstine. 2019. Graduating Out of Poverty Across Generations: Unpacking Children’s Well-being Trajectories in Burundi. Children and Society, National Children’s Bureau. 87 Bandiera et al. Forthcoming. Page 83 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) these activities. On the other hand, earnings from livestock rearing increase dramatically and lead to an overall increase in earnings of 26 percent at the end of year 2 and 36 percent at the end of year 4. A similar finding was observed in Afghanistan where livestock revenue increased (281 percent increase against the control group average), leading to an overall increase in revenue. 22. Consumption levels increased across all countries. As shown in figure 4.3, both at the end of end line 1 (year 2) and end line 2 (year 3 for all countries except Bangladesh which is year 4) after the productive asset transfer, there was an increase in consumption levels of beneficiaries compared to that of the control group of non-beneficiaries. It is between 7 percent and 16 percent for non-zero impact values. In Afghanistan, there was, in fact, a 30 percent increase in total monthly per capita consumption driven by food consumption expenditures. Additionally, in Bangladesh, at end line 2, the value of household assets (sarees, radios, televisions, cell phones, bicycles, and furniture) increased by 110 percent relative to the baseline which has immense implications for long-term resilience of the household more broadly. Honduras witnessed a particularly bad outcome (zero impact on consumption and negative impact on asset value) primarily due to death of chickens which were the primary asset that was transferred. Figure 4.3. Percentage Change in Per Capita Consumption by Country Source: Policy Bulletin September 2015, JPAL and IPA. Note. These percentages are over small baseline values. 23. Financial assets also increased in response to the intervention. In Bangladesh, average household savings increased from being US$6 at baseline to US$54 at end line 1 and US$53 at end line 2.88 While in the initial two years there was an explicit effort to improve savings through the program, it 88 Purchasing power parity-adjusted figures. Page 84 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) was not the case thereafter. The high savings even at end line 2 show that there has been a significant change in savings behavior among households that could be directly attributed to the program, a trend observed in the pilot countries as well. Likewise, there was a 61 percent increase in the likelihood of taking loans among beneficiary households in Bangladesh. In the pilot countries, a statistically significant increase in borrowing was registered for formal loans. In fact, beneficiary households in Bangladesh also gave loans with a higher likelihood, 1 percent at baseline versus 4.2 percent and 5.1 percent at end line 1 and end line 2, respectively. 24. Beyond consumption and financial behavior, the value of productive assets also showed remarkable increases for the extreme poor beneficiary group. In Bangladesh, cows’ value increased by 58 percent and 208 percent (net of value of cow transferred to household as asset) at end lines 1 and 2, respectively, against the baseline value of US$36. In other words, households have been able to grow their herd of cows, thereby increasing the value of cows owned. Goats, on the other hand, witnessed a reduction (net of the value of goats transferred to households) either due to liquidation or death. Yet, the total value of livestock increased overall. In Afghanistan as well, one finds a 315 percent increase in value of livestock compared to the control group. Again, in Bangladesh, the likelihood of a beneficiary household renting or owning land increases by 190 percent and 38 percent, respectively, against baseline likelihoods of 6 percent and 7 percent, respectively. The value of land owned almost triples by the end of year 4 (end line 2) from US$175 to US$502. Much of this increase in land value happened between year 2 and year 4, implying that households are using surplus earnings from participating in the program for land acquisition. Interestingly, there is some evidence observed from Bangladesh that this is the result of redistribution between upper class and extreme poor households. Productive assets are about 10 times the value of household assets and financial assets combined. 25. Program impact is heterogenous across extreme poor households. This was investigated in Bangladesh where one finds that among the extreme poor in Bangladesh, program impact across outcome variables is higher for households with a higher initial level of the variable. For example, the impact on consumption of households in the 5th centile by consumption is a tenth of that of households in the 95th centile. A similar trend is observed for value of household assets, savings, and value of productive assets. Similar findings were reported in Afghanistan as well. 26. Impacts on the beneficiaries have no negative spillover effects in the community but instead have positive spillover effects across various outcomes. As outcomes for a specific group of beneficiary households improve, questions arise as to whether it was at a cost to some other household in the community and whether, on the other hand, it may have positively affected non-beneficiary households in some way. Bandiera et al. (2016) test some of the potential positive and negative pathways through which the comprehensive economic inclusion program may affect non-beneficiary households in the community. First, the increased labor allocation of beneficiaries to livestock rearing raised the equilibrium wages for casual labor in the market, both for beneficiaries who may continue to devote some time to casual labor market (for example, maid market) and for non-beneficiaries. Second, as extreme poor beneficiary women start livestock rearing, there is risk that it crowds out non-beneficiary women from livestock rearing, but no such evidence was found. This is because the livestock delivered through the program was only 7 percent of the stock of livestock in the community and was bought from the region market instead of the community market; moreover, the markets where livestock are traded cover a larger area than the program community. Third, value of business assets increased by 30 percent across all non-beneficiaries and by 63 percent, 47 percent, and 8 percent for near poor, middle, and upper-class Page 85 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) households, respectively. This is likely due to the extreme poor channeling some of their resources to others in the community or others reducing their support to the extreme poor. Fourth, no spillover effects were observed in terms of household assets or consumption. Lastly, there is suggestive evidence that land is transferred from the richest to the poorest in these villages. This is an indication that program design needs to consider market saturation that may arise from such programs and hence to avoid it if it may lead to negative spillovers. 27. Interestingly, benefits from such a comprehensive economic inclusion program go beyond economic benefits and extend to psychosocial outcomes. As shown in figure 4.4, there was an increase in the psychosocial outcomes of beneficiaries within the first two years of the program. These include physical health, mental health, political involvement, and women’s empowerment. The impacts vary by country with Ghana showing the most positive results in the first two years. These results dissipate over the next one year in the case of physical health and women’s empowerment but do not do so for mental health driven by self-reported happiness and lack of stress, and political involvement driven by greater interactions with community leaders improved attendance in community meetings and membership in political parties. These are very significant results as it shows that the program apart from increasing economic outcomes improves perceptions of ‘status’ in the community, which could in turn improve longer-term economic outcomes, as beneficiaries start exerting their ‘voice’, for example, for negotiating better outcomes with respect to provision of basic public services such as health, water, and education. In Afghanistan, in addition to the subjective measures, it reports psychological well-being using an objective measure—a lower salivary cortisol (improved well-being) was reported as the impact of the program but the result was not statistically significant. Figure 4.4. Impact on Psychosocial Outcomes Source: Policy Bulletin September 2015, JPAL and IPA. Page 86 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Long-term Impact 28. While most of the first-wave impact assessments were at between two years and four years after program commencement, the pilot in West Bengal in India and the scaled-up program in Bangladesh were tracked at seven years (and more recently an 11-year follow-up on human capital outcomes89). 29. Long-term impacts were positive and multiplicative. In Bangladesh, the study resurveyed 93 percent of the original beneficiaries of the program seven years after the asset transfer (2014). The designated control group in this study had started receiving benefits in 2011 and by 2014 close to half of all control villages had received the program. Bandiera et al. (2016) try to assess the long-term impact of the program through (a) extrapolating the time series of changes between those who originally received the benefits of the program and those that did not and (b) creating a counterfactual control group by assuming a range of impacts observed on the original set of beneficiaries between the two-year and four- year impact estimates (the control group had received the benefit for three years by 2014). Both these methods show that the impact is greater than or equal to the impact observed after four years. 30. In fact, some outcomes had a positive effect in the long term despite not being so in the short term (figure 2.5). Unlike in Bangladesh, the control group in the West Bengal pilot study was left entirely untouched. This allowed for calibrating the long-term seven-year impact of the program. Positive and growing impacts were found across all categories of outcomes (consumption, income, food security, financial stability, time spent working, and physical and mental health) except productive assets. In fact, the effect on some outcomes such as mental health and stress had tapered off in the short term (four- year follow-up) but showed positive and higher effect (compared to two-year follow-up) in the long term. Figure 4.5. Economic and Psychosocial Impact by Years since Asset Transfer A. Economic Impact 1.00 2 years 3 years 7 years 1.09 1.00 0.96 0.93 0.80 0.89 0.88 0.83 0.83 0.78 0.60 0.40 0.45 0.43 0.36 0.33 0.20 0.30 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.18 0.00 Asset Index Productive Household Total per capita Food Security Financial Income and Asset Index Asset Index consumption, Index Inclusion Index Revenue Index standardized Source: Banerjee et al. 2016. 89This study is yet to be published, but the results presented here are based on the input from the Partnerships for Economic Inclusion team. Page 87 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) B. Psychosocial Impact 0.25 2 years 7 years 0.20 0.24 0.15 0.16 0.10 0.13 0.12 0.05 0.08 0.06 0.00 Physical Health Index Mental Health Index Stress Index Source: Banerjee et al. 2016. Note: Zero effects during the four-year (end line 2) follow-up not shown in the chart. 31. Additionally, there are early indications of intergenerational impact on children’s nutritional status and school retention. Bandiera et al. (forthcoming) study the intergenerational impact of this approach based on a long-term follow-up of treated and controlled households 11 years after treatment. They find that among children ages 0–5 years at the start of program, prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight fell by 6 percentage points each.90 A similar effect was observed only for wasting among children ages 6–11 years. Similarly, overall primary and secondary school completion rates increased by 7 percentage points and 5 percentage points, respectively. In Afghanistan, on the other hand, one finds a 6-percentage point increase in school enrollment (53 percent and 56 percent for girls and boys in the control group, respectively) and 5 percentage point decrease in absenteeism, with the impact being marginally higher for boys than for girls. Additionally, an 8-percentage point reduction in caregiver- reported diarrhea was observed for the oldest child under 5 years, against 51 percent prevalence in the control group. In Burundi, one finds a strong and positive pathway from economic inclusion to child well- being as households focus their spending on meeting children’s basic needs, such as diverse diets, schooling, and health care. At the same time, they also find that a potential and plausible threat to this pathway is the existence of covariate shocks and, consequently, highlight the importance of continued support through social protection more broadly. Consumption Support versus Comprehensive Package 32. There is substantial evidence for consumption, productive, and human capital impacts of beneficiaries of cash transfer programs such as the SCT program of Zambia. In Zambia, the Child Grant Program and the Multiple Category Targeted Program (both precursors to the SCT) not only increased consumption but also led to a multiplier effect on income, increasing it by US$0.67 for every US$1 of transfer.91 Additionally, there is evidence from a meta-analysis by Bastagli et al. (2016) and from World Bank (2018) that shows that cash transfers can improve education (enrollment rates and attendance, 90 Stunting is below minus two standard deviations from the median height for age of reference population, underweight is below minus two standard deviations from the median weight for age of reference population, and wasting is below minus two standard deviations from median weight for height of reference population. 91 Handa, Sudhanshu, Luisa Natali, David Seidenfeld, Gelson Tembo, and Benjamin Davis. 2018. ‘’Can Unconditional Cash Transfers Raise Long-term Living Standards? Evidence from Zambia.’. Journal of Development Economics Page 88 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) particularly secondary school) and health outcomes (increased use of health facilities, improved dietary diversity, and in some cases improved health outcomes) of beneficiaries. There is also evidence of improvement in women’s decision-making power and lower physical and nonphysical abuse by the male partner.92 33. A comprehensive economic inclusion approach, though, shows sustained improvements in income and wealth in comparison to only providing consumption support. In South Sudan, Chowdhury et al. (2017) study the impact of a BRAC pilot of the comprehensive economic inclusion approach (‘Transfers to the Ultra-Poor’ [TUP] or ‘graduation’ program) and compare it to a round of UCT consumption support in equivalent value (to asset transfer). The study shows that while both the TUP and UCT showed a very similar increase in consumption levels the TUP, unlike the UCT, also shows an increase in asset wealth. This includes an increase in productive assets such as livestock, farm equipment, mobile phones, and so on, part of which could be due to the productive asset transfer through the TUP itself. However, in fact, the value of the impact on total asset wealth is substantially higher (almost twice) than that on the productive asset indicating that the impact on assets goes beyond the program asset transfer itself. Similar findings are observed for microenterprises in Uganda that receive a comprehensive package from the NGO Village Enterprises which includes training and coaching compared to receiving just a UCT (Sedlmayr et al. 2018). These microenterprises are set up as part of the program and comprise up to three poorest households. Sedlmayr et al. (2018) show that the households in the microenterprise derive higher economic value from a cash transfer when provided as part of a comprehensive package, rather than by itself. 34. Hence, while lump-sum cash transfers have a higher cost-effectiveness score on consumption in the immediate term, the comprehensive approach has longer-lasting impact, especially on the extreme poor. Sulaiman et al. (2016) compare lump-sum cash transfers (such as UCT in Kenya and Youth Opportunities Program in Northern Uganda), livelihood programs (such as Farm Input Subsidy Program in Malawi, Land Title Reform by SOMOLAC in Madagascar and Women’s Income Generating Support Program in Uganda), and the graduation approach (evidence discussed here). One, they find that only 27 percent and 33 percent of the sample of programs they selected for lump-sum cash transfer and livelihood programs, respectively, target and include the extreme poor against 100 percent for graduation programming. Two, they find that while a lump-sum cash transfer generates 29 cents increase in annual consumption for every dollar spent, it is 20 cents for livelihoods and 11 cents for graduation. However, when comparing impact on the extreme poor, livelihoods only generates 9 cents compared to 11 cents for graduation. Moreover, the impact of graduation is longer lasting than the other programs. The comprehensive economic inclusion approach, therefore, is the most cost-effective and sustainable mechanism to improve the lives of the extreme poor. Scaling Up 35. While results from Bangladesh suggest that impact results discussed in the previous sections can be sustained ‘at scale’, there is not much evidence available yet that it can be done so by the Government. While the Bangladesh impact evaluation reported here is a large-scale program, it was 92Bastagli, Francesca, Jessica Hagen-Zanker, Luke Harman, Valentina Barca, Georgina Sturge, Tanja Schmidt, and Luca Pellerano. 2016. Cash Transfer: What Does the Evidence Say? A Rigorous Review of Programme Impact and of the Role of Design and Implementation Features. Overseas Development Institute with Oxford Policy Management. Page 89 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) implemented by the NGO BRAC. While a randomized control trial of the SWL, included as part of the parent project, will contribute to this literature on the impact of a government-implemented large-scale comprehensive economic inclusion program, even midterm results will be available only by mid-2020. Government implementation is inherently constrained by capacity, in terms of both ground staff to implement the program and technical capacity. Unlike UCTs, this comprehensive economic inclusion package includes various components that require substantial capacity to implement at scale. It is, therefore, yet to be seen whether similar impacts materialize through government implementation of the SWL component of GEWEL. 36. Nevertheless, the program has adopted various methods to maintain impact. Davis et al. (2017),93 Al-Ubaydli et al. (2017),94 and Al-Ubaydli et al. (2019)95 present the various threats to scaling up a pilot initiative. These include (a) an inelastic supply of input factors such that there is no sufficient capacity (quantitative and technical) to implement the program at scale; (b) adverse heterogeneity, whereby pilot study participants are systematically predisposed to succeed compared to the population at large; and (c) noncompliance of beneficiaries with program protocols, such that if the desired behaviors are not induced, the program fails to have the desired effects on the beneficiary. To counter these threats, the program has set up various mechanisms including (a) setting up of a quality PIU headed by a government official, who is situated within the ministry, adheres to ministry policies, and implements using government-decentralized structures; (b) accurate selection of the ultra-poor within each programmatic geographic unit, with the profile of beneficiaries selected through the evaluations presented here; (c) specialist training for training of trainers on life and business skills and mentoring to enhance their technical knowledge in these areas; (d) involvement of provincial and district government staff to implement and monitor; (e) regular monitoring visits and quarterly reporting of monitoring data; and (f) biannual process evaluation of the program to understand program targeting, beneficiary compliance, and other operational issues. 93 Davis, Jonathan, Jonathan Guryan, Kelly Hallberg, and Jens Ludwig. 2017. The Economics of Scale-Up. National Bureau of Economic Research. 94 Al-Ubaydli, Omar, John List, Danielle LoRe, and Dana Suskind. 2017.“Scaling for Economists: Lessons from the Non-Adherence Problem in the Medical Literature.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 95 Al-Ubaydli, Omar, John List, and Dana Suskind. 2019. “The Science of Using Science: Towards an Understanding of the Threats to Scaling Experiments.” Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper 2019-73, University of Chicago. Page 90 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) ANNEX 5: SOCIAL ASSESSMENT ACTION PLAN Background 1. The proposed Additional Financing and restructuring of the Girls’ Education and Women’s Empowerment (GEWEL) Project aim to deepen and widen its human capital impacts by expanding coverage and providing more complementary support to poor women and girls. GEWEL supports the achievement of human capital outcomes through educating, employing, and empowering women and adolescent girls from the poorest households. Social Assessment and Action Plan 2. The GEWEL is investing in activities that aim to improve the well-being of women and girls from the poorest households in selected districts across the country. Women and young girls, particularly those in rural areas, are at risk of experiencing sexual violence due to existing cultural norms and unequal power relations at household level. While participating in the project is expected to enhance their wellbeing, it is possible that this may put them at an even greater risk with their male counterparts leading to sexual abuse or increased sexual violence. In anticipation of this risk, a study exploring how GEWEL may respond to the risks of GBV was conducted to ascertain the level of risk and propose mitigation measures to be implemented and to inform appropriate activities included under the proposed Additional Financing. 3. In response to the findings of the study, a detailed Action Plan to mitigate and respond to GBV risks was developed to be implemented by GEWEL, as part of a broader response through the World Bank’s human development projects, with close coordination between GEWEL and the World Bank- funded Zambia Education Enhancement Project (ZEEP, P158570) and the Zambia Health Services Improvement Project (P145335). The Action Plan further provides information on areas of strengthening client capacity to better manage and respond to GBV risks and the proposed Additional Financing and restructuring aim to support the implementation of this plan. A summary of this action plan follows: (a) Roll-out the Grievance and Redress Mechanism (GRM) to all project areas and improve the ability of the GRM to accept GBV-related complaints. (b) Update and maintain the national GBV referral pathway in Project districts (c) Strengthening the monitoring of the Keeping Girls in School (KGS) component of the GEWEL (d) Design, pilot roll out of case management system in schools that have KGS beneficiaries (e) Improve guidelines on standards of boarding facilities, establish achievement of standards certification process and oversight of them by Ministry of General Education. (f) Sensitization of Ministry of General Education line structure staff and school students on SRGBV, in schools supported by KGS (g) Design and pilot program to reduce violence against children in the school system through behavioral change at the community level. 4. The preparation of the study and the Action Plan benefited from consultation with gender and GBV-experts across the Ministries of Gender, General Education and Community Development and Social Services, the United Nations, development partners, and the University of Zambia. Further consultations are expected. Page 91 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) ANNEX 6. INDICATIVE BUDGET TO BE FURTHER REFINED THROUGH ANNUAL PLANNING PROCESS Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Component 1: Supporting Women's Livelihoods (SWL) Productive grants $ 1,147,500 $ 2,422,500 $ 3,697,500 $ 4,972,500 $ 12,240,000 Operating costs $ 1,193,400 $ 3,386,400 $ 5,579,400 $ 7,772,400 $ 17,931,600 Systems investments $ 1,158,730 $ 1,158,730 $ 1,158,730 $ 1,158,730 $ 4,634,920 TOTAL $ 3,499,630 $ 6,967,630 $ 10,435,630 $ 13,903,630 $ 34,806,520 Component 2a: Keeping Girls in School (KGS) School fees $ 1,686,981 $ 3,841,581 $ 3,841,581 $ 3,841,581 $ 13,211,723 Operating costs $ 1,550,000 $ 2,740,000 $ 1,540,000 $ 1,540,000 $ 7,370,000 HQ $ 450,000 $ 700,000 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 $ 2,150,000 Province $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 400,000 District $ 1,000,000 $ 1,940,000 $ 940,000 $ 940,000 $ 4,820,000 Systems investments $ 200,000 $ 700,000 $ 200,000 $ 700,000 $ 1,800,000 GRM and case management $ 150,000 $ 150,000 $ 150,000 $ 150,000 $ 600,000 M&E and impact evaluation $ 50,000 $ 550,000 $ 50,000 $ 550,000 $ 1,200,000 TOTAL $ 3,436,981 $ 7,281,581 $ 5,581,581 $ 6,081,581 $ 22,381,723 Component 2b: Social Cash Transfers (SCT) Transfers $ 24,634,750 $ 24,634,750 $ 24,634,750 $ 24,634,750 $ 98,539,000 Operating costs $ 4,187,908 $ 4,187,908 $ 4,187,908 $ 4,187,908 $ 16,751,630 TOTAL $ 28,822,658 $ 28,822,658 $ 28,822,658 $ 28,822,658 $ 115,290,630 Component 3a: Gender Equality and Gender-Based Violence Mitigation Support to national gender policy and $ 137,500 $ 137,500 $ 137,500 $ 137,500 strategy $ 550,000 Page 92 of 93 The World Bank Additional Financing for Girls' Education and Women's Empowerment and Livelihood Project (GEWEL) (P169975) Support to GBV Action Plan $ 87,500 $ 87,500 $ 87,500 $ 87,500 $ 350,000 Coordination of GEWEL, including $ 400,000 $ 400,000 $ 400,000 $ 400,000 monitoring and communications $ 1,600,000 TOTAL $ 625,000 $ 625,000 $ 625,000 $ 625,000 $ 2,500,000 Component 3b: Social Protection MIS and payment system rollout $ 375,000 $ 375,000 $ 375,000 $ 375,000 $ 1,500,000 Other social protection, FM and $ 125,000 $ 125,000 $ 125,000 $ 125,000 procurement capacity building $ 500,000 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 $ 2,000,000 Notes: During year one, operating costs at HQ and district level will be met, in part, through the Original Credit and thus these amounts allocated here are reduced accordingly. SWL beneficiaries in existing districts will likely be frontloaded instead of distributed evenly across the 4 years of the AF as assumed above. Similarly, KGS caseloads are likely to decrease over time due to school completion and drop outs. Page 93 of 93