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Agreeing on robust decisions : new processes for decision making under deep uncertainty (English)

Investment decision making is already difficult for any diverse group of actors with different priorities and views. But the presence of deep uncertainties linked to climate change and other future conditions further challenges decision making by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6906 JUN 01, 2014

Kalra, Nidhi; Hallegatte, Stephane; Lempert, Robert; Brown, Casey; Fozzard, Adrian; Gill, Stuart; Shah, Ankur

Carbon price efficiency : lock-in and path dependence in urban forms and transport infrastructure (English)

This paper investigates the effect of carbon or gasoline taxes on commuting-related CO2 emissions in an urban context. To assess the impact of public transport on the efficiency of the tax, the paper investigates two exogenous scenarios using a dynamic urban model (NEDUM-2D) calibrated for the urban area of Paris: (i) a scenario with the current dense public transport infrastructure, and (ii) a scenario without. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6941 JUN 01, 2014

Avner, Paolo; Rentschler, Jun; Hallegatte, Stephane

Economic resilience: definition and measurement : Economic resilience: definition and measurement (English)

The welfare impact of a disaster does not only depend on the physical characteristics of the event or its direct impacts in terms of lost lives and assets. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6852 MAY 01, 2014

Hallegatte, Stephane

Transition to clean capital, irreversible investment and stranded assets (English)

This paper uses a Ramsey model with two types of capital to analyze the optimal transition to clean capital when polluting investment is irreversible. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6859 MAY 01, 2014

Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Stephane

Long-term mitigation strategies and marginal abatement cost curves : a case study on Brazil (English)

Decision makers facing abatement targets need to decide which abatement measures to implement, and in which order. This paper investigates the ability of marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves to inform this decision, reanalysing a MAC curve developed by the World Bank on Brazil. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6808 MAR 01, 2014

Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Stephane; de Gouvello Christophe

Green industrial policies : when and how (English)

Green industrial policies can be defined as industrial policies with an environmental goal -- or more precisely, as sector-targeted policies that affect the economic production structure with the aim of generating environmental benefits. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6677 OCT 01, 2013

Hallegatte, Stephane; Fay, Marianne; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien

How capital-based instruments facilitate the transition toward a low-carbon economy : a tradeoff between optimality and acceptability (English)

This paper compares the temporal profile of efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions induced by two mitigation strategies: a regulation of all emissions with a carbon price and a regulation of emissions embedded in new capital only, using capital-based instruments such as investment regulation, differentiation of capital costs, or a carbon tax with temporary subsidies on brown capital. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6609 SEP 01, 2013

Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Stephane

Should marginal abatement costs differ across sectors ? the effect of low-carbon capital accumulation (English)

The optimal timing, sectoral distribution, and cost of greenhouse gas emission reductions is different when abatement is obtained though abatement expenditures chosen along an abatement cost curve, or through investment in low-carbon capital. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6415 APR 01, 2013

Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Stephane; Meunier, Guy

An exploration of the link between development, economic growth, and natural risk (English)

This paper investigates the link between development, economic growth, and the economic losses from natural disasters in a general analytical framework, with an illustration on hurricane flood risks in New Orleans. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6216 OCT 01, 2012

Hallegatte, Stephane

Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change (English)

While agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group of actors, priorities, and world views, the presence of deep uncertainties further challenges the decision-making framework by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6193 SEP 01, 2012

Hallegatte, Stephane; Shah, Ankur; Lempert, Robert; Brown, Casey; Gill, Stuart

How inertia and limited potentials affect the timing of sectoral abatements in optimal climate policy (English)

This paper investigates the optimal timing of greenhouse gas abatement efforts in a multi-sectoral model with economic inertia, each sector having a limited abatement potential. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6154 AUG 01, 2012

Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Stephane; Meunier, Guy

A cost effective solution to reduce disaster losses in developing countries : hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation (English)

In Europe, it can be estimated that hydro-meteorological information and early warning systems save several hundreds of lives per year, avoid between 460 million and 2.7 billion Euros of disaster asset losses per year, and produce between 3.4 and 34 billion of additional benefits per year through the optimization of economic production in weather-sensitive sectors (agriculture, energy, etc.). ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6058 MAY 01, 2012

Hallegatte, Stephane

Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs (English)

Based on an IO structure, the ARIO-inventory model simulates the economic consequences and responses to a natural disaster. It represents explicitly production bottlenecks, models a flexibility in production capacity in case of scarcity, and introduces inventories as an additional flexibility in the production system. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS6047 APR 01, 2012

Hallegatte, Stephane

From growth to green growth -- a framework (English)

Green growth is about making growth processes resource-efficient, cleaner and more resilient without necessarily slowing them. This paper aims at clarifying these concepts in an analytical framework and at proposing foundations for green growth. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS5872 NOV 01, 2011

Treguer, David; Heal, Geoffrey; Fay, Marianne; Hallegatte, Stephane

When starting with the most expensive option makes sense : use and misuse of marginal abatement cost curves (English)

This article investigates the use of expert-based Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC) to design abatement strategies. It shows that introducing inertia, in the form of the "cost in time" of available options, changes significantly the message from MACCs. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS5803 SEP 01, 2011

Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Stephane

A dynamic model of extreme risk coverage : resilience and efficiency in the global reinsurance market (English)

This paper presents a dynamic model of the reinsurance market for catastrophe risks. The model is based on the classical capacity-constraint assumption. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS5807 SEP 01, 2011

Hallegatte, Stephane; Lemoyne de Forges, Sabine; Bibas, Ruben

How economic growth and rational decisions can make disaster losses grow faster than wealth (English)

Assuming that capital productivity is higher in areas at risk from natural hazards (such as coastal zones or flood plains), this paper shows that rapid development in these areas -- and the resulting increase in disaster losses -- may be the consequence of a rational and well-informed trade-off between lower disaster losses and higher productivity. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS5617 MAR 01, 2011

Hallegatte, Stephane

Designing climate change adaptation policies : an economic framework (English)

Adaptation has long been neglected in the debate and policies surrounding climate change. However, increasing awareness of climate change has led many stakeholders to look for the best way to limit its consequences and has resulted in a large number of initiatives related to adaptation, particularly at the local level. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS5568 FEB 01, 2011

Lecocq, Franck; Hallegatte, Stephane; de Perthuis, Christian

The economics of natural disasters : concepts and methods (English)

Large-scale disasters regularly affect societies over the globe, causing large destruction and damage. After each of these events, media, insurance companies, and international institu-tions publish numerous assessments of the "cost of the disaster." ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS5507 DEC 01, 2010

Hallegatte, Stephane; Przyluski, Valentin

Title Document Date Report No. Document Type Also available in
Agreeing on robust decisions : new processes for decision making under deep uncertainty (English)
See More +
JUN 01, 2014 WPS6906 Policy Research Working Paper
Carbon price efficiency : lock-in and path dependence in urban forms and transport infrastructure (English)
See More +
JUN 01, 2014 WPS6941 Policy Research Working Paper
Economic resilience: definition and measurement : Economic resilience: definition and measurement (English)
See More +
MAY 01, 2014 WPS6852 Policy Research Working Paper
Transition to clean capital, irreversible investment and stranded assets (English)
See More +
MAY 01, 2014 WPS6859 Policy Research Working Paper
Long-term mitigation strategies and marginal abatement cost curves : a case study on Brazil (English)
See More +
MAR 01, 2014 WPS6808 Policy Research Working Paper
Green industrial policies : when and how (English)
See More +
OCT 01, 2013 WPS6677 Policy Research Working Paper
How capital-based instruments facilitate the transition toward a low-carbon economy : a tradeoff between optimality and acceptability (English)
See More +
SEP 01, 2013 WPS6609 Policy Research Working Paper
Should marginal abatement costs differ across sectors ? the effect of low-carbon capital accumulation (English)
See More +
APR 01, 2013 WPS6415 Policy Research Working Paper
An exploration of the link between development, economic growth, and natural risk (English)
See More +
OCT 01, 2012 WPS6216 Policy Research Working Paper
Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change (English)
See More +
SEP 01, 2012 WPS6193 Policy Research Working Paper
How inertia and limited potentials affect the timing of sectoral abatements in optimal climate policy (English)
See More +
AUG 01, 2012 WPS6154 Policy Research Working Paper
A cost effective solution to reduce disaster losses in developing countries : hydro-meteorological services, early warning, and evacuation (English)
See More +
MAY 01, 2012 WPS6058 Policy Research Working Paper
Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs (English)
See More +
APR 01, 2012 WPS6047 Policy Research Working Paper
From growth to green growth -- a framework (English)
See More +
NOV 01, 2011 WPS5872 Policy Research Working Paper
When starting with the most expensive option makes sense : use and misuse of marginal abatement cost curves (English)
See More +
SEP 01, 2011 WPS5803 Policy Research Working Paper
A dynamic model of extreme risk coverage : resilience and efficiency in the global reinsurance market (English)
See More +
SEP 01, 2011 WPS5807 Policy Research Working Paper
How economic growth and rational decisions can make disaster losses grow faster than wealth (English)
See More +
MAR 01, 2011 WPS5617 Policy Research Working Paper
Designing climate change adaptation policies : an economic framework (English)
See More +
FEB 01, 2011 WPS5568 Policy Research Working Paper
The economics of natural disasters : concepts and methods (English)
See More +
DEC 01, 2010 WPS5507 Policy Research Working Paper