This newsletter includes the following headlines: The Philippine government is taking strong measures to curb the spread of the pandemic COVID-19, The local stock exchange market index fell to below 5,000 mark in mid-March, Manufacturing output contracted for the fourteenth consecutive month in January.
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This newsletter includes the following headlines: Economic growth accelerated to its fastest pace in nearly two years in the fourth quarter of 2019, Total trade expanded in December as exports grew by double digits for the first time in two years, The novel coronavirus outbreak weighed down on investor confidence, causing a sell-off in the local stock market in end-January.
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This newsletter includes the following headlines: The manufacturing sector production further worsened in November 2019, Total external trade in goods contracted in November 2019, The Philippine peso appreciated while the stock exchange rebounded in December 2019.
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This newsletter includes the following headlines: The tepid performance of the manufacturing sector continued in October, The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) weakened in November and Inflation rose in November, halting its five-month downtrend.
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This newsletter includes the following headlines: The Philippine economy grew by over six percent in Q3 2019, Trade contracted for the sixth consecutive month in September and Public spending growth surged in September, driven by a significant uptick in public infrastructure growth.
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Newsletter 144010 NOV 01, 2019
Qian,Rong; Chua,Kevin C.; Cruz,Kevin Thomas Garcia; Lazaro,Karen; Endo,Isaku; Diop,NdiameDisclosed
This newsletter includes the following headlines: Due to heightened global uncertainties and slowdown in investment spending, growth will be lower than expected; Manufacturing output declined for the ninth consecutive month in August; Inflation easing continued in September, prompting further monetary policy loosening.
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This newsletter includes the following headlines: Food manufacturing expanded for the first time in nearly a year in July, but overall manufacturing output contracted for the eighth consecutive month, The trade deficit expanded despite the contraction of imports in July 2019, Inflation fell below central bank's target in August 2019.
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This newsletter includes the following headlines: In the Second Quarter of 2019, the Philippine economy expanded by its slowest pace in over four years, driven by a major contraction in investment largely driven by delayed budget approval and spending ban due to the elections, weakness in manufacturing sector's persisted in June 2019, inflation further eased in July to its slowest pace in two years.
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This Philippines Monthly Economic Developments Newsletter includes some of the following headlines: manufacturing output contracted again in May, the Philippine Stock Exchange index marginally rose, and the peso appreciated in June, headline inflation declined in June following a slight uptick in May, the government registered a fiscal surplus in May as expenditures remained muted.
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This Philippines Monthly Economic Developments Newsletter includes some of the following headlines: manufacturing output continued its contraction for the fifth month in April, budget balance was positive in April as expenditures contracted by double digits, inflation picked up in May after consecutive declines since October 2018, driven by higher prices for vegetables, meat and fish, unemployment and underemployment recorded improvements in April 2019.
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This Philippines Monthly Economic Developments Newsletter includes some of the following headlines: THE World Bank projects economic growth to recover to 6.4 percent in 2019; 5.7 million Filipinos were lifted out of poverty between 2015 and 2018; the national government registered a budget deficit in February, reversing the surplus of January.
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This Philippines Monthly Economic Developments Newsletter includes some of the following headlines: inflation slowed down for the fourth consecutive month in February; merchandise exports contracted for the third consecutive month in January, while merchandise import growth remained subdued; and the Philippine Stock Exchange index retreated to below 8,000 in February.
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The headline inflation rate dropped to 5.1 percent in December, putting the full-year inflation rate above the central bank's target range. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed from 6.0 percent in November to 5.1 percent in December, year-on-year.
... See More + The main contributors to the lower inflation rate in December were lower food and transport prices as a result of the fall in international oil prices, the provisional rollback of jeepney fares in select areas, and the large rice supply during the ongoing harvest season. Nevertheless, the full-year average inflation rate increased from 2.9 percent in 2017 to 5.2 percent in 2018–above the central bank's 2-4 percent target range. Excluding volatile food and energy items, the core inflation rate also decreased from 5.1 percent in November, year-on-year, to 4.7 percent in December. The full-year average core inflation rate reached 4.1 percent in 2018, up from 2.5 percent in 2017. On November 16, the central bank raised its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent, resulting in a total increase of 175 basis points in 2018. The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) continued its modest recovery in December for the second consecutive month. The PSEi rose by 1.3 percent, month-on-month, in December, following a 3.2 percent expansion in November, to close the year at 7,466. However, the index fell by an average 12.8 percent in 2018 – a reversal from the 25.1 percent gain registered in 2017. In line with other countries in the region, the PSEi displayed a strong momentum in early 2018 (it exceeded 9,000 in January), then fell sharply due to a combination of domestic (e.g. rising inflation) and external headwinds (e.g. trade tensions, US Fed monetary tightening) that resulted in significant net foreign selling throughout the year. Total net foreign selling reached Php57.1 billion in 2018, compared to net foreign buying of Php54.8 billion in 2017, reflecting an overall risk aversion to emerging market economies. ex fell by an average 12.8 percent in 2018—a reversal from the 25.1 percent gain.
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Newsletter 133927 JAN 01, 2019
Qian,Rong; Cruz,Kevin Thomas Garcia; Enriquez,Karen Annette Lazaro; Endo,Isaku; Diop,NdiameDisclosed
The Philippines registered its widest merchandise trade deficit in October as imports continued its strong expansion and export growth remains subdued.
... See More + Import growth accelerated to 21.4 percent year-on-year in October from 17.4 percent a year ago, although slightly less than the 26.1 percent growth in September. Faster import growth was fueled by robust import growth in raw materials and intermediate goods (22.2 percent) and capital goods (21.2 percent). Meanwhile, merchandise export growth moderated to 3.3 percent year-on-year in October from 17.4 percent a year ago, slightly higher than the 0.8 percent growth in September. Softer export growth was primarily driven by the sharp growth slowdown in electronics products (0.6 percent in October 2018 vs 28.6 in October 2017), and the contraction of agriculture exports (-13.7 percent in October 2018 vs 16.1 percent in October 2017). As a result, the Philippines’ merchandise trade deficit widened to its largest level so far in 2018 at 4.2 billion US dollars, which is 62.9 percent higher than the merchandise trade deficit during the same period a year ago.
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Newsletter 133111 DEC 01, 2018
Qian,Rong; Chua,Kevin C.; Cruz,Kevin Thomas Garcia; Lazaro, Kevin; Endo,Isaku; Diop,NdiameDisclosed
This newsletter includes the following headlines: Philippine economic growth moderated to 6.1 percent year-to-year in the third quarter; The services sector drove economic growth while the agriculture sector underperformed; While manufacturing growth slowed in September, it is projected to accelerate in the next few month; A surge in imports and a contraction in exports resulted in the widest merchandise trade gap so far in 2018; Headline inflation held steady in October while food inflation moderated for the first time since May; The Philippine peso appreciated 1-2 percent month-on-month in October from Php/USD 54.25 to Php/USD 53.61; The fiscal deficit widened in the first three quarters of 2018. as rapid expenditure growth outpaced revenue growth.
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Newsletter 132260 NOV 01, 2018
Qian,Rong; Chua,Kevin C.; Cruz,Kevin Thomas Garcia; Lazaro,Karen; Endo,Isaku; Diop,NdiameDisclosed
To achieve the AmBisyon Natin 2040, the Philippines needs to triple its income per capita in the next two decades. The AmBisyon Natin 2040 is the government’s plan to transform the country into a prosperous middle-class society free of poverty by 2040.
... See More + This implies that the Philippine economy needs to grow at an annual average of 6.5 percent in the next 22 years, faster than the average growth of 5.3 percent since 2000—a challenge that only the Asian Tigers and China have managed to accomplish in the past. This report shows that sustaining high growth can only be achieved if the Philippines succeeds in sustaining high Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth while accelerating capital accumulation. To achieve the GDP per capita target by 2040, numerous scenarios regarding the potential mix of growth drivers were evaluated. The first key finding is that sustaining high TFP growth will be crucial to achieve the target. Specifically, the Philippines needs to sustain an average annual TFP growth rate of 1.5 percent or higher in the next 22 years, more than double the world average since 2000. Such a high rate of TFP growth will require deep structural reforms to remove constraints and distortions faced by the private sector. The second key finding is that accelerating capital accumulation in the medium term will be essential to reduce current infrastructure and capital constraints to growth. The Philippines can meet the capital accumulation requirement by doubling the growth rate in the physical investment-to-GDP ratio over the next five years through higher private and public investment, which would require the implementation of important reforms that are highlighted in this report. The top three policy reform areas for sustaining high growth and productivity, prerequisites for achieving Ambisyon Natin 2040 are: (i) improving market competition through regulatory reforms; (ii) improving trade and investment climate policies and regulations; (iii) reducing labor market rigidities and costs. By creating competitive and flexible markets, poverty alleviation is likely to accelerate through more jobs, higher labor productivity, and lower consumer prices. An equal playing field and a regulatory environment that makes it easy to do business encourage firms to enter the market, invest, grow, create jobs, and innovate, leading to higher productivity. Market competition coupled with flexible a labor market and abundant labor supply allows higher productivity to reduce product prices, which increases workers’ real income. As a result of more and higher paid jobs, more people will move out of poverty, helping achieve the AmBisyon Natin 2040 vision of a society free of poverty.
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This newsletter includes the following headlines: Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) declined significantly in the first week of September 2018 due to a mix of external and domestic factors; the Philippine peso depreciated in August after strengthening in July; headline inflation surged in August with increased food and energy prices; Balance of payment deficit widened in the first half of 2018 reaching 2.1 percent of GDP from 0.5 percent of GDP same period in 2017; the government posted a fiscal deficit in July as public spending growth outpaced revenue growth; unemployment declined further in July 2018, but underemployment continued to worsen; consumer confidence turned negative for the first time in two years and business confidence fell to its lowest since 2009
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Newsletter 129959 SEP 01, 2018
Chua,Kevin C.; Cruz,Kevin Thomas Garcia; Endo,Isaku; Qian,Rong; Hansl,BirgitDisclosed
The World Bank maintains its growth projection for the Philippines at 6.7 percent for 2018 and 2019. The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) contracted in June for the fifth consecutive month.
... See More + The Philippine peso continued to depreciate reaching Php/US$53.5 in June, weakest since 2006. Exports declined for the fifth consecutive month while import growth remained robust. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised the key policy rate again in June amidst rising inflation. Fiscal deficit narrowed slightly in May as revenue growth outpaced expenditure growth.
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Newsletter 128374 JUL 01, 2018
Chua,Kevin C.; Cruz,Kevin Thomas Garcia; Endo,Isaku; Qian,Rong; Hansl,Birgit; Diop,NdiameDisclosed
In 2017, the Philippines was among the top three growth performers in the East Asia region. Only Vietnam and China performed better. The Philippines growth performance slightly weakened in 2017 to 6.7 percent year-on-year from 6.9 percent in 2016.
... See More + Growth was anchored in strong exports, while investment growth significantly slowed and consumption growth moderated. The Philippines' annual exports rose sharply in 2017 and became the main engine of economic growth, while imports continued to grow by double-digits. Investment growth slowed in 2017, following two consecutive years of rapid expansion, and climbing inflation slowed real wage growth and contributed to a moderation in private consumption growth.
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The Philippines Economic Update (PEU) summarizes key economic and social developments, important policy changes, and the evolution of external conditions over the past six months.
... See More + It also presents findings from recent World Bank analysis, situating them in the context of the country’s long-term development trends and assessing their implications for the country’s medium-term economic outlook. The PEU covers issues ranging from macroeconomic management, financial-market dynamics to the complex challenges of poverty reduction and social development. It is intended to serve the needs of a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, private firms and investors, and analysts and professionals engaged in the social and economic development of the Philippines. Policymakers need to confront downside risks while fostering long-term growth. The short-term risks to the country’s outlook include increased trade protectionism, the possibility of financial market disruptions, and elevated economic policy uncertainty. In the longer term, weaker growth potential remains the main risk. Consistency in the government’s policies to achieve stable inflation, fiscal stability, and security will help preserve consumer and business confidence. For the Filipino consumer, it will be important that inflation remains at moderate levels. This will warrant careful inflation management by the central bank authorities to anchor expectations. As long as it is consistent with medium-term fiscal sustainability, an expansionary fiscal policy could support short-term growth. The successful and timely implementation of the government’s fiscal program, including its ambitious infrastructure plan and efforts to generate more revenue, would signal a strong commitment to the government’s policy priorities. Key issues, such as mining regulations and regional development in Mindanao, will require policy certainty to preserve both external and domestic confidence in the Philippine economy. Implementing structural policies that support investment and trade will be critical to boost productivity and potential growth in the long-term. These policies would require the government’s commitment to reforms that promote competition in key sectors, secure property rights, lessen regulatory complexities, and improve doing business in the country. Longer-term policy priorities also include training and job search programs and other measures to support workers most affected by sectoral shifts in employment and share the dividends of growth and gains from globalization more widely. Sustained investment in human capital development and in sectors that create quality employment are needed to safeguard the country’s progress on delivering inclusiveness.
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Working Paper 120239 OCT 01, 2017
Hansl,Birgit; Diop,Ndiame; Chua,Kevin C.; Cruz,Kevin Thomas GarciaDisclosed
