China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. Notwithstanding the recent conclusion of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, short-term risks remain tilted to the downside amid a fragile global outlook and the lingering impact of trade tensions, especially on confidence.
... See More + Adverse demographics, tepid productivity growth, and the legacies of excessive borrowing and environmental pollution will continue to weigh on growth over the medium term. If downside risks lead to a sharp reduction in growth, the authorities have policy space to act, but this needs to be done in a way that is consistent with reducing financial and corporate sector risks and achieving the desired rebalancing of the economy toward consumption and private investment. The key medium-term priorities are to deepen structural reforms to strengthen productivity growth and private investment, while accelerating rebalancing toward consumption, services, and green growth. This would require addressing market distortions and mainstreaming environmental sustainability into China's medium-term development strategy. Implementation of these priorities would boost China's long-term growth prospects; it would also help move toward a more comprehensive and lasting resolution of remaining deep-seated disagreements on global trade and investment, and public goods agenda.
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China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. Notwithstanding the recent conclusion of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, short-term risks remain tilted to the downside amid a fragile global outlook and the lingering impact of trade tensions, especially on confidence.
... See More + Adverse demographics, tepid productivity growth, and the legacies of excessive borrowing and environmental pollution will continue to weigh on growth over the medium term. If downside risks lead to a sharp reduction in growth, the authorities have policy space to act, but this needs to be done in a way that is consistent with reducing financial and corporate sector risks and achieving the desired rebalancing of the economy toward consumption and private investment. The key medium-term priorities are to deepen structural reforms to strengthen productivity growth and private investment, while accelerating rebalancing toward consumption, services, and green growth. This would require addressing market distortions and mainstreaming environmental sustainability into China's medium-term development strategy. Implementation of these priorities would boost China's long-term growth prospects; it would also help move toward a more comprehensive and lasting resolution of remaining deep-seated disagreements on global trade and investment, and public goods agenda.
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The objectives of the Economic Transformation and Institutional Capacity Building Project are to (i) inform China’s policy making and (ii) strengthen capacity to implement priority reform areas articulated in China’s Five-Year Plans and other development programs.
... See More + The formal request for project restructuring, received on December 17, 2018, consists of the following changes: partial loan cancellation of USD 9 million from the funds allocated for local government agencies with repayment obligations due to weaker demand from local governments; extension of the closing date by 22 months to October 31, 2021. This is the first extension of the closing date; and Updated results framework, with adjusted target values for the PDO and intermediate indicators (with the indicator definitions unchanged). Upon the approval of the restructuring, the project operations manual will be updated to include the revised results framework.
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Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient and in line with previous expectations. Already robust domestic demand has been supported by some pickup in external demand and the gradual recovery in commodity prices.
... See More + Fiscal deficits in the major regional economies widened in 2016, prompting some adjustment toward the end of the year in Indonesia and Malaysia. Monetary policies remained accommodative, and credit continued to grow rapidly in most major economies. Inflation is edging up and producer prices are rising quickly as commodity prices increase. Capital outflows intensified toward end-2016 leading to depreciation pressures, but financial markets have since recovered. The growth outlook for 2017–19 remains broadly positive across the region. China is expected to continue its gradual transition to lower, more sustainable growth. In the rest of the region, growth is projected to pick up moderately. Continued buoyancy in domestic demand, including public and increasingly private investment, will be supported by gradually strengthening external demand. Global growth and commodity prices are projected to continue recovering slowly, while global financial conditions tighten gradually. Inflationary pressures should remain contained. In the Pacific Island Countries, maintaining fiscal sustainability needs to remain a focus along with policy reforms in selected sectors, which could prove transformational over the medium term. For fiscal sustainability, efforts to shore up revenues, contain unproductive spending while boosting critical expenditures on health and education, and build up buffers against shocks need to be sustained. There are also opportunities to accelerate growth and boost employment over the longer term. On tourism, promising options include tapping into the Chinese and retiree market, increasing the number of luxury resorts, and encouraging cruise ships to base in the Pacific. Increases in labor mobility, through the expansion of existing agreements and the negotiation of new agreements, complemented by investments in workers’ human capital, could also generate substantial benefits. Higher mobile and internet penetration, complemented by a conducive business environment and the development of a skilled workforce could boost productivity. And income from fisheries could be significantly increased, without threatening the sustainability of the fisheries stock, by broadening participation in cooperative agreements to include East Asian countries with major fishing grounds, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, and ensuring compliance with robust catch limits.
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Midway through 2015, Indonesia remains confronted with an uncertain external environment, and domestic economic policy challenges have intensified.
... See More + GDP decelerated to below 5 percent in the first quarter and private consumption expenditure, Indonesia’s engine of growth in recent years, is also slowing. Weaker growth has resulted in slower job creation, with recent employment rising only just enough to absorb the increase in working age population. While the commodity downturn since 2012 and policy response have affected output growth the most in resource-rich provinces, employment creation has come under pressure across Indonesia. Yet the scope for policy stimulus is limited and monetary policy in particular is constrained due to sticky inflation and persistent external vulnerabilities.
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Regular economic development updates can contribute significantly to dialogue and debate on key policy issues; this macroeconomics and fiscal management (MFM) note shares practical experience from the World Bank’s production of one such report, the Indonesia economic quarterly (IEQ).
... See More + High quality economic updates can be powerful platforms for the World Bank to influence, and inform, public policy debates on development challenges that are occurring at a country, regional, or global level. Measuring the impact of economic updates on the policy discourse, or reforms, can help to build a reinforcing cycle of internal buy-in, and external interest, in the product leading to further interest in contributing to, and consuming, future releases. This brief provides some practical examples of the strategies and processes which can be used to build such updates as platforms for policy dialogue, drawing on the experience of five years of production of the IEQ.
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This brief provides some practical examples of the strategies and processes which can be used to build such updates as platforms for policy dialogue, drawing on the experience of five years of production of the Indonesia economic quarterly (IEQ).
... See More + The IEQ aims to support improvements in the quality of evidence-based policy-making regarding Indonesia's near-term economic and medium-term development challenges by stimulating, informing, and influencing the public debate and policymaking on these issues. Over recent years the high-quality, topical evidence-based policy analysis in the IEQ has informed, and influenced, the public policy debate in Indonesia on a range of issues, from near-term macro challenges, fiscal reforms in areas such as energy subsidies and capital budget disbursements, through to social protection and social security programs, education spending, and local service delivery.
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Midway through 2015, Indonesia remains confronted with an uncertain external environment, and domestic economic policy challenges have intensified.
... See More + GDP decelerated to below 5 percent in the first quarter and private consumption expenditure, Indonesia’s engine of growth in recent years, is also slowing. Weaker growth has resulted in slower job creation, with recent employment rising only just enough to absorb the increase in working age population. While the commodity downturn since 2012 and policy response have affected output growth the most in resource-rich provinces, employment creation has come under pressure across Indonesia. Yet the scope for policy stimulus is limited and monetary policy in particular is constrained due to sticky inflation and persistent external vulnerabilities.
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