Myanmar's economy is slowly picking up speed and regaining stability after a volatile 2018. Despite a challenging global environment, Myanmar's economic growth is expected to rise to 6.5 percent in 2018/19 from 6.4 percent in the Transition Period1 supported by strong performance in the manufacturing and services sectors.
... See More + Volatility that buffeted the economy in 2018 has started to ease. Inflation moderated, the kyat stabilized, and fuel prices fell in Q1 2018/19, though there have been some reversals in prices in Q2. The economic outlook looks positive, with growth expected to reach 6.7 percent in the medium-term. The recent decisions to ease trade restrictions; open the financial sector to greater foreign competition; and begin mega infrastructure projects signal a decisive and awaited uptick in reform momentum. Downside risks to the economic outlook are driven by external factors, including possible revocation of preferential trade access under the European Union Generalized System of Preferences. Slowing global and regional growth, especially in China, together with renewed escalation of global trade tensions, could also slow exports and the flow of inbound foreign investments. Insecurity in border areas, the Rakhine crisis, with violence and forced displacement of refugees, and the recent flare-up in violence involving the Arakan Army, could affect investors' sentiment. The 2020 general election is also a source of uncertainty.
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Myanmar's economy is navigating significant uncertainty and risks at home and abroad. A year after violent upheaval in Rakhine State led to the forced displacement of over seven hundred thousand refugees to Bangladesh, limited progress has been made in resolving fundamental issues relating to rights, repatriation and recovery.
... See More + Global economic and trade prospects have also become more uncertain. Myanmar's economic growth is expected to slow from 6.8 percent in 2017/18 to 6.2 percent in 2018/19, which is still robust by regional and global standards. Macroeconomic volatility has intensified since the May 2018 Myanmar Economic Monitor, with inflation breaching two-year highs in August 2018, and the kyat depreciating by 18 percent against the U.S. dollar since April. Growth is projected to recover to 6.6 percent by 2020/21, helped by recent policy changes such as the adoption of the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan, liberalization of wholesale and retail trade, implementation of the Myanmar Companies Law and large investments in infrastructure projects including those related to the Belt and Road Initiative. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside due to the possibility of a global slowdown in trade, domestic macroeconomic imbalances, and the loss of trade-related preferences to the European Union.
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Myanmar's economy performed better in 2017/18 with a modest growth acceleration that partially reversed the deterioration experienced in 2016/17.
... See More + While the outlook remains positive, risks have intensified. The economy experienced a broad-based increase in real GDP growth to 6.4 percent in 2017/181 from 5.9 percent in 2016/17. Inflation moderated from 7 percent in 2016/17 to 5.5 percent in 2017/18. The exchange rate was stable and appreciated slightly towards the end of the year, the current account deficit narrowed slightly on strong export growth, and the fiscal deficit also narrowed in the first three quarters of the fiscal year. While performance remains strong and the macroeconomic outlook is positive, there are concerns that the slow pace of reforms, vulnerabilities in the financial sector, and limited progress in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine are starting to affect business sentiment and could weaken performance. External risks from uncertainty in global trade policy and in commodity prices intensify the downside risks to the growth outlook.
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Myanmar's economy performed better in 2017/18 with a modest growth acceleration that partially reversed the deterioration experienced in 2016/17.
... See More + While the outlook remains positive, risks have intensified. The economy experienced a broad-based increase in real GDP growth to 6.4 percent in 2017/181 from 5.9 percent in 2016/17. Inflation moderated from 7 percent in 2016/17 to 5.5 percent in 2017/18. The exchange rate was stable and appreciated slightly towards the end of the year, the current account deficit narrowed slightly on strong export growth, and the fiscal deficit also narrowed in the first three quarters of the fiscal year. While performance remains strong and the macroeconomic outlook is positive, there are concerns that the slow pace of reforms, vulnerabilities in the financial sector, and limited progress in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine are starting to affect business sentiment and could weaken performance. External risks from uncertainty in global trade policy and in commodity prices intensify the downside risks to the growth outlook.
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