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An Empirical Investigation of Trade Diversion and Global Value Chains (English)

This paper uses data on directional trade flows and Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) to i) estimate the effects of RTA on trade flows and ii) assess the importance of Global Value Chains for these effects. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS9089 DEC 18, 2019

De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael; Maire,Julien Luc Yvon; Sublet,Guillaume Disclosed

Trade, Global Value Chains and GDP Comovemement : An Empirical Investigation (English)

This paper provides up-to-date characterization of the association between trade and GDP comovement -- also called the trade comovement slope -- for 150 countries from 1962 to 2011. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS9091 DEC 18, 2019

De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael; Gaillard,Alexandre Gwen Simon Disclosed

Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains (English)

The global economy has witnessed a decline in inflation and an increase in inflation synchronization since the early 1980s. This paper investigates the relationship between inflation synchronization and trade integration, and documents the strong link between inflation co-movement and Global Value Chain (GVC) participation. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS9090 DEC 18, 2019

De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael; Franco,Sebastian Disclosed

Common Transport Infrastructure : A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative (English)

This paper presents a structural general equilibrium model to analyze the effects on trade, welfare, and gross domestic product of common transport infrastructure. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS8801 APR 01, 2019

De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael; Mulabdic,Alen; Ruta,Michele Disclosed

How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs ? (English)

This paper studies the impact of transport infrastructure projects of the Belt and Road Initiative on shipment times and trade costs. Based on a new data on completed and planned Belt and Road transport projects, Geographic Information System analysis is used to estimate shipment times before and after the Belt and Road Initiative. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS8614 OCT 15, 2018

De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael; Mulabdic,Alen; Murray,Siobhan; Rocha Gaffurri,Nadia Patrizia; Ruta,Michele Disclosed

A New Economy for the Middle East and North Africa (French)

Economic growth in the MENA region is forecast to improve modestly, reaching an average of 2.6 percent in 2019-2020. Oil exporters will significantly benefit from higher oil prices and external oil demand that will likely remain high, as well as domestic reforms. ... See More +

Working Paper 130143 OCT 01, 2018

Arezki,Rabah; Mottaghi,Lili; Barone,Andrea; Abou Harb,Amani; Fan,Yuting; Karasapan,Omer M.; Matsunaga,Hideki; Nguyen,Ha Minh; De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael English, Arabic Disclosed

A New Economy for the Middle East and North Africa (Arabic)

Economic growth in the MENA region is forecast to improve modestly, reaching an average of 2.6 percent in 2019-2020. Oil exporters will significantly benefit from higher oil prices and external oil demand that will likely remain high, as well as domestic reforms. ... See More +

Working Paper 130143 OCT 01, 2018

Arezki,Rabah; Mottaghi,Lili; Barone,Andrea; Abou Harb,Amani; Fan,Yuting; Karasapan,Omer M.; Matsunaga,Hideki; Nguyen,Ha Minh; De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael English, French Disclosed

A New Economy for the Middle East and North Africa (English)

Economic growth in the MENA region is forecast to improve modestly, reaching an average of 2.6 percent in 2019-2020. Oil exporters will significantly benefit from higher oil prices and external oil demand that will likely remain high, as well as domestic reforms. ... See More +

Working Paper 130143 OCT 01, 2018

Arezki,Rabah; Mottaghi,Lili; Barone,Andrea; Abou Harb,Amani; Fan,Yuting; Karasapan,Omer M.; Matsunaga,Hideki; Nguyen,Ha Minh; De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael Arabic, French Disclosed

The Growth and Welfare Effects of the Belt and Road Initiative on East Asia Pacific Countries (English)

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a development strategy proposed by China that focuses on connectivity and cooperation on a trans-continental scale. ... See More +

Brief 131211 OCT 01, 2018

De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael Disclosed

Bought, sold, and bought again : the impact of complex value chains on export elasticities (English)

Global value chain participation affects the exchange rate pass-through to export prices and export volumes. The paper develops a partial equilibrium model of international trade with cross-border production and shows that higher participation in global value chains reduces the elasticities. ... See More +

Policy Research Working Paper WPS8535 JUL 13, 2018

De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael; Frohm,Erik; Gunnella,Vanessa; Pavlova,Elena Disclosed