The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has made laudable progress in the past fifteen years in reducing poverty, building the middle class, and promoting prosperity for all levels of society.
... See More + Extreme poverty, defined in this region as life on less than $2.50 a day, has declined by half, while in 2011 for the first time in recorded history the LAC region had a larger number of people in the middle class than in poverty. Across this region of close to 600 million people, the poor have been gaining faster than the already well off. But despite these impressive achievements, about 80 million people still live in extreme poverty, half of them in Brazil and Mexico. And millions more who have risen out of poverty risk being pulled back down into it by economic shocks and severe weather brought on by climate change. This brief reviews the LAC's progress toward these objectives, outlines the continuing challenges and proposes a policy framework for keeping the region on its upward arc and picking up the speed.
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Publication 78507 JUN 01, 2013
J. Cord, Louise; Lucchetti, Leonardo; Rodriguez-Castelan, CarlosSpanish
The Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region has made laudable progress in the past fifteen years in reducing poverty, building the middle class, and promoting prosperity for all levels of society.
... See More + Extreme poverty, defined in this region as life on less than $2.50 a day, has declined by half, while in 2011 for the first time in recorded history the LAC region had a larger number of people in the middle class than in poverty. Across this region of close to 600 million people, the poor have been gaining faster than the already well off. But despite these impressive achievements, about 80 million people still live in extreme poverty, half of them in Brazil and Mexico. And millions more who have risen out of poverty risk being pulled back down into it by economic shocks and severe weather brought on by climate change. This brief reviews the LAC's progress toward these objectives, outlines the continuing challenges and proposes a policy framework for keeping the region on its upward arc and picking up the speed.
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Publication 78507 JUN 01, 2013
J. Cord, Louise; Lucchetti, Leonardo; Rodriguez-Castelan, CarlosEnglish
This paper validates a recently proposed method to estimate intra-generational mobility through repeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows the creation of a "synthetic panel" -- done by predicting future or past household income using a set of simple modeling and error structure assumptions -- and thus permits the estimation of lower and upper bounds on directional mobility measures.
... See More + The authors validate the approach in three different settings where good panel data also exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, they also carry out a number of refinements to the validation procedure. The results are broadly encouraging: the methodology performs well in all three settings, especially in cases where richer model specifications can be estimated. The technique does equally well in predicting short and long-term mobility patterns and is robust to a broad set of additional "stress" and sensitivity tests. Overall, the paper lends support to the application of this approach to settings where panel data are absent.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS5916 DEC 01, 2011
Food price inflation in Brazil in the twelve months to June 2008 was 18 percent, while overall inflation was seven percent. Using spatially disaggregated monthly data on consumer prices and two different household surveys, we estimate the welfare consequences of these food price increases, and their distribution across households.
... See More + Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a predominantly wage-earning agricultural labor force, our estimates include general equilibrium effects on market and transfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates of changes in consumer surplus. While the expenditure (or consumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedly regressive everywhere, the market income effect was positive and progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because of this effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protection afforded by increases in two large social assistance benefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazil was U-shaped, with middle-income groups suffering larger proportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless, since Brazil is 80 percent urban, higher food prices still led to a greater incidence and depth of poverty at the national level.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS5652 MAY 01, 2011
Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Fruttero, Anna; Leite, Phillippe; Lucchetti, Leonardo
This study supports the development of a more coherent and effective nutrition strategy in Ecuador through an analysis of the main nutrition issues, based on in-depth statistical analysis of a large new household survey dataset (ENDEMAIN 2004) and other data sources, together with a review of qualitative evidence regarding behavioral and program-access obstacles to improved nutritional outcomes.
... See More + It also reviews the existing programs and policies which aim to improve nutritional outcomes, considered the available evidence on the efficiency, effectiveness, targeting and inter-programmatic coherence of the programs and projects reviewed and suggests an agenda for policy discussions to improve these outcomes.
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This study supports the development of a more coherent and effective nutrition strategy in Ecuador through an analysis of the main nutrition issues, based on in-depth statistical analysis of a large new household survey dataset (ENDEMAIN 2004) and other data sources, together with a review of qualitative evidence regarding behavioral and program-access obstacles to improved nutritional outcomes.
... See More + It also reviews the existing programs and policies which aim to improve nutritional outcomes, considered the available evidence on the efficiency, effectiveness, targeting and inter-programmatic coherence of the programs and projects reviewed and suggests an agenda for policy discussions to improve these outcomes.
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