Midway through 2015, Indonesia remains confronted with an uncertain external environment, and domestic economic policy challenges have intensified.
... See More + GDP decelerated to below 5 percent in the first quarter and private consumption expenditure, Indonesia’s engine of growth in recent years, is also slowing. Weaker growth has resulted in slower job creation, with recent employment rising only just enough to absorb the increase in working age population. While the commodity downturn since 2012 and policy response have affected output growth the most in resource-rich provinces, employment creation has come under pressure across Indonesia. Yet the scope for policy stimulus is limited and monetary policy in particular is constrained due to sticky inflation and persistent external vulnerabilities.
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Midway through 2015, Indonesia remains confronted with an uncertain external environment, and domestic economic policy challenges have intensified.
... See More + GDP decelerated to below 5 percent in the first quarter and private consumption expenditure, Indonesia’s engine of growth in recent years, is also slowing. Weaker growth has resulted in slower job creation, with recent employment rising only just enough to absorb the increase in working age population. While the commodity downturn since 2012 and policy response have affected output growth the most in resource-rich provinces, employment creation has come under pressure across Indonesia. Yet the scope for policy stimulus is limited and monetary policy in particular is constrained due to sticky inflation and persistent external vulnerabilities.
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The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesias economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context.
... See More + Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesias economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesias medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesias evolving economy.
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The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesias economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context.
... See More + Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesias economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesias medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesias evolving economy.
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The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main objectives. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context.
... See More + Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesias medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. As Indonesians await the results of a presidential election on July 9, 2014 and plan for the upcoming inauguration of a new president in October, they face hard policy choices. The past decade of solid growth has contributed to considerable development progress. Indonesia now has the world's tenth largest economy in purchasing power parity-adjusted terms; however, there remains a clear risk that the recent moderation in economic growth could intensify. Against a backdrop of weakening revenue growth and rising energy subsidy spending, this would further constrain development expenditures in critical areas such as infrastructure, social protection and health. The new government will face an evolving global environment, which is expected to pick up speed later this year. The price of Indonesia's top six exports, accounting for 50 percent of total export revenues, continues to soften, falling by 8.6 percent in 2014 through June, led by coal (down 15.2 percent). The recent volatility of oil prices, due in part to the turmoil in Iraq, highlights the ongoing vulnerability of Indonesia's fiscal position to higher international oil prices. Real GDP growth in Indonesia moderated to 5.2 percent year-on-year and 4.3 percent quarter-on-quarter at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate in the first quarter of 2014. Safeguarding hard-fought poverty reduction and social protection progress in Indonesia also calls for enhancing the management of disaster risks. This edition of the IEQ examines one such disaster risk: forest and land fires.
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The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main objectives. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context.
... See More + Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesias medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. As Indonesians await the results of a presidential election on July 9, 2014 and plan for the upcoming inauguration of a new president in October, they face hard policy choices. The past decade of solid growth has contributed to considerable development progress. Indonesia now has the world's tenth largest economy in purchasing power parity-adjusted terms; however, there remains a clear risk that the recent moderation in economic growth could intensify. Against a backdrop of weakening revenue growth and rising energy subsidy spending, this would further constrain development expenditures in critical areas such as infrastructure, social protection and health. The new government will face an evolving global environment, which is expected to pick up speed later this year. The price of Indonesia's top six exports, accounting for 50 percent of total export revenues, continues to soften, falling by 8.6 percent in 2014 through June, led by coal (down 15.2 percent). The recent volatility of oil prices, due in part to the turmoil in Iraq, highlights the ongoing vulnerability of Indonesia's fiscal position to higher international oil prices. Real GDP growth in Indonesia moderated to 5.2 percent year-on-year and 4.3 percent quarter-on-quarter at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate in the first quarter of 2014. Safeguarding hard-fought poverty reduction and social protection progress in Indonesia also calls for enhancing the management of disaster risks. This edition of the IEQ examines one such disaster risk: forest and land fires.
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The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context.
... See More + Based on these developments and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. Indonesia's fiscal and monetary policy settings will continue to play a key role in facilitating the adjustments now taking place and in minimizing associated risks. There are, however, trade-offs between the objectives of restraining inflation, supporting growth and adjusting the current account deficit to the tighter financing environment. Monetary policy faces the challenge of calibrating interest and exchange rates so as to guard against rising inflationary pressures as cost pressures rise (such as from the pass-through of the weaker currency or wage increases) while facilitating improvements in the external balances, and without unduly crimping economic growth and weakening public and private sector balance sheets. With the 2014 budget under discussion with Parliament, fiscal policy faces the challenge of slower revenue growth, and higher energy subsidy and nominal debt-financing costs, raising the importance of lifting further the quality of spending and of revenue mobilization. In response to the intensification of financial market pressures, and in conjunction with the monetary policy and currency market measures mentioned above, on August 23 the Government announced a policy package containing measures intended to improve the current account, safeguard purchasing power and facilitate growth, contain inflationary pressure, and maintain investment flows. Some of the reform measures involved retracting interventionist policies on trade and proposals for improving certainty in the business environment.
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