To improve farmer access to quality seeds and fertilizers, West African governments have been working through economic community of West African states (ECOWAS) and other regional organizations to develop harmonized rules for input trade for many years.
... See More + After extensive consultations, regional regulations based on advanced international standards have mostly been agreed upon and are already helping to guide quality improvements in some countries. Despite these encouraging signs, most countries do not currently have the physical capacity or institutional structures needed to implement the agreed trade rules which will take considerable time and investment to develop. The analysis, therefore, points to a need for pragmatic solutions that are easy for individual countries or groups of countries to implement in the near term while longer-term progress towards full harmonization continues.
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Working Paper 93630 JAN 01, 2015
Keyser, John C.; Eilitta, Marjatta; Dimithe, Georges; Ayoola, Gbolagade; Sene, Louis
This study estimates marginal increase in malnutrition for children ages 1-3 years from exposure to an extreme shock in the West African Sahel.
... See More + The study uses knowledge of a child's birth and high resolution spatial and temporal distribution of shocks, calculated from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and satellite-based measures of rainfall and temperature to link a child to the shock experienced in-utero. The study finds that while around 20 percent of the children in the sample are stunted or underweight, more than 30 percent of the children in the sample are highly vulnerable to either form of malnutrition.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS7171 JAN 01, 2015
Beyond the terrible toll in human lives and suffering, the Ebola epidemic currently afflicting West Africa is already having a measurable economic impact in terms of forgone output, higher fiscal deficits, rising prices, lower real household incomes, and greater poverty.
... See More + These economic impacts include the costs of healthcare and forgone productivity of those directly affected but, more importantly, they arise from choices by others to avoid exposure to the disease, called aversion behavior. This report provides a systematic analysis of the channels of economic impact and the likely magnitude of that impact for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, as well as West Africa as a whole. The short-term (2014) impact of Ebola on economic output is on the order of US$359 million in foregone output in 2013 prices. Two alternative scenarios are used to estimate the medium-term (2015) impact of the epidemic. A low Ebola scenario corresponds to rapid containment within the three most severely affected countries, while high Ebola corresponds to slower containment in the core three countries, with some broader regional contagion. The estimates of the GDP lost as a result of the epidemic in the core three countries for 2015 alone sum to US$97 million under low Ebola (implying some recovery from 2014), and US$809 million under high Ebola (in 2013 dollars). Over the medium term, however, both epidemiological and economic contagion in the broader sub-region of West Africa is likely. This report uses a multi-country general equilibrium model to estimate the medium-term impact on output for West Africa as a whole. Under low Ebola, the loss in GDP for the sub-region is estimated to be US$2.2 billion in 2014 and US$1.6 billion in 2015. Under high Ebola, the estimates are US$7.4 billion in 2014, and US$25.2 billion in 2015. This analysis shows that the economic impacts are already very serious in the core three countries, particularly Liberia and Sierra Leone, and could become catastrophic under a slow-containment, high Ebola scenario. In broader regional terms, the economic impacts could be limited if immediate national and international responses succeed in containing the epidemic and mitigating aversion behavior. If, on the other hand, the epidemic spreads into neighboring countries, some of which have much larger economies, the cumulative two-year impact could reach US$32.6 billion by the end of 2015, almost 2.5 times the combined 2013 GDP of the core three countries.
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The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus disease in West Africa has taken a devastating human toll. Although the outbreak originated in rural Guinea, it has hit hardest in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in part because it has reached urban areas in these two countries, a factor that distinguishes this outbreak from previous episodes elsewhere.
... See More + As of October 3, 2014, there had been 3,431 recorded deaths out of 7,470 probable, suspected, or confirmed cases of Ebola. This report informs the response to the epidemic by presenting best-effort estimates of its macroeconomic and fiscal effects. Any such exercise is necessarily highly imprecise due to limited data and many uncertain factors, but it is still necessary in order to plan the economic assistance that must accompany the immediate humanitarian response. The goal is to help affected countries to recover and return to the robust economic growth they had experienced until the onset of this crisis. This document presents the World Bankapos;s preliminary estimates of the economic impact of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa for 2014 (short term impact) and 2015 (medium term impact). Section 2 presents a single set of 2014 estimates for Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, based on available data on current economic activity as well as assumptions about the short-term impact. It also presents current data on the limited current impacts on other countries in the region. Section 3 presents estimates for the impact by the end of 2015 for Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone, as well as estimates for West Africa as a whole. Because the epidemic and the behavioral responses to it have more time to diverge over the course of 2015, Section 3 presents two scenarios for 2015, which vary in the optimism of their assumptions regarding the epidemic and the success of donor and government policy and efforts to control it. The take-away messages from this analysis are a low Ebola scenario that corresponds to rapid containment within the three most severely affected countries, and a high Ebola scenario corresponds to slower containment in the three countries, with some broader regional contagion. A swift policy reaction by the international community is crucial. With potential the economic costs of the Ebola epidemic being so high, very substantial containment and mitigation expenditures would be cost-effective, if they successfully avert the worst epidemiological outcomes. To mitigate the medium term economic impact of the outbreak, current efforts by many partners to strengthen the health systems and fill the fiscal gaps in the core three countries are key priorities. Finally, this report does not take into account the longer term impacts generated by mortality, failure to treat other health conditions due to aversion behavior and lack of supply capacity, school closings and dropouts, and other shocks to livelihoods. It is truly focused on the short and medium-term inputs, over the next 18 months.
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Trafficking is an emerging concern in West Africa. In 2011, 17 percent of all cocaine consumed in Europe -- 21 tons -- passed through the region, for a retail value of US$1.7 billion.
... See More + This paper discusses the evolution of trafficking in the region and provides estimates of the size and value of trafficking flows to demonstrate the significance of this illegal activity. Although this topic is gaining increasing attention, less attention has been has been paid to how trafficking is perpetuating fragility. This paper contributes to this area of research by identifying five channels through which trafficking is intensifying fragility in the region. The relative importance of each channel is discussed, with specific countries as case-study examples. Possible programmatic responses are then suggested with examples of policy approaches successfully adopted elsewhere in the world.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS7079 OCT 01, 2014
Mobile phone coverage has expanded considerably throughout the developing world, particularly within sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence suggests that increased access to information technology has improved agricultural market efficiency for consumer markets and certain commodities, but there is less evidence of its impact on producer markets.
... See More + Building on the work of Aker (2010), this paper estimates the impact of mobile phone coverage on producer price dispersion for three commodities in Niger. The results suggest that mobile phone coverage reduces spatial producer price dispersion by 6 percent for cowpea, a semi-perishable commodity. These effects are strongest for remote markets and during certain periods of the year. The introduction of mobile phone coverage has no effect on producer price dispersion for millet and sorghum, two staple grains that are less perishable and are commonly stored by farmers. There are no impacts of mobile phone coverage on tradersapos; gross margins or producer price levels, but mobile phone coverage is associated with a reduction in the intra-annual price variation for cowpea. These results are potentially explained by the fact that farmers engage in greater storage for storable commodities such as millet and sorghum.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6986 JUL 01, 2014
The rapid economic rise of China over the last twenty years has sustained high global demand and prices for primary commodities such as oil and minerals, greatly benefitting Sub-Saharan (SSA) African countries.
... See More + China now represents more than 20 percent of SSAapos;s trade, up from just 2.3 percent in 1985. West Africaapos;s share in Chinaapos;s trade is still quite low, 0.6 percent in 2012, but it is rising rapidly. Exports to China - oil, iron, phosphates, gold, cotton, cocoa and cashew nuts, have grown fast. However, they have not grown as rapidly as imports, resulting in a large trade deficit with China (13 percent of West Africaapos;s GDP over 2009-2012). Reasons include a strong consumption demand for inexpensive Chinese products as well as the import-content requirements in development assistance agreements. Looking at the impact of China on West Africa, it appears that West African producers do not compete with China on third markets; by and large their products are complementary. However, West African producers are finding difficult to compete with China in their own domestic as well as in regional markets. The paperapos;s main messages are as follows: Chinese demand for primary commodities is likely to continue in the near future, potentially benefitting West Africa. To maximize these benefits, West African countries need to maintain macroeconomic stability and to design appropriate policies to manage the volatility of commodity prices while raising the competitiveness of the economy. The current stagnation of the agricultural and manufacturing sectors in many West African countries is a sign of Dutch disease effects that should not be underestimated and need to be readdressed; and while the specific reforms needed vary from country to country, they should be comprehensive enough to generate a shift in the policy stance aimed at increasing productivity and encouraging diversification in the tradable sector. Examples of such reforms include the removal of trade restrictions among West African countries, the dismantling of formal and informal trade barriers to regional processing activities and the improvement of trade logistics.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 88349 MAY 23, 2014
Evidence from a large panel of low-income and lower middle-income countries over the period 1995-2012 suggests that, contrary to other countries, public investment in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) has been pro-cyclical.
... See More + Public investment contracts more in quot;bad timesquot; than it increases in quot;good timesquot; and appears to have become pro-cyclical since the introduction of the fiscal convergence criteria in 1994. The pro-cyclicality of public expenditure and the high asymmetry of shocks that affect WAEMU countries justify exploring options for greater counter-cyclicality of rules-based fiscal frameworks and for risk-sharing.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6562 AUG 01, 2013
Dessus, Sebastien; Diaz Sanchez, Jose Luis; Varoudakis, Aristomene
The objective of this project is to strengthen the supervisory capacity of the Cameroon Civil Aviation Authority (CCAA) and ensure that Douala and Yaoundé international airports meet international safety standards.
... See More + Expected results for this project are: 100% of the CCAA inspectors are trained and certified, 21 km of fence and a road for patrols are to be built around these airports, the budget share of the CCAA dedicated to aviation security is increasing, 50% of the security personnel of the airport have, at least, three years of experience , the terminals of Yaoundé and Douala are monitored 24 hours seven days a week through video surveillance equipment. Airports in Yaoundé and Douala now have security checked luggage systems, badges for authorized personnel and biometric access controls.
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Addressing youth issues is essential to promoting stability and preventing violence in fragile and conflict-affected states. However, there is little evidence that youth programming and policies have helped reduce violence in these settings.
... See More + This can reflect the lack of understanding about youth issues and how problems affecting them encourage their participation in violence. This study set out to understand youth violence in Liberia and Sierra Leone, two countries in which there has historically been a great deal of youth participation in group violence, where the risk of youth mobilization into violence persists, and where interpersonal and gender-based violence are still a concern. In addition to having young populations, both countries have governments that have emphasized improving youthsapos; lives by both reducing poverty and preventing violence. In turn, programming and policies in these (and many other conflict-affected) countries tend to be focused on employment generation due to the assumption that youth become prone to violent behavior as the result of economic exclusion (their inability to achieve a stable source of livelihood). The findings from this study will be useful to help governments (particularly of fragile and conflict-affected states) and donors better understand youth issues, design more effective interventions to address youth violence, and promote longer-term stability. The report begins with a review of literature on existing theories of youth exclusion and drivers of youth violence, with a greater focus on history of violence in West Africa. It proceeds with an outline of the study methodology for data collection, sample selection, and analysis. The analysis follows, highlighting key findings. The report concludes with recommendations for policies and youth programming.
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Governments of mineral-rich countries formulate and use a variety of financial imposts to collect a share of the revenue generated by mining companies.
... See More + Instruments include the full range of taxes, fees, and charges that generally apply to all normal commercial operations. In addition to these measures, most governments use mineral royalties along with variations to the corporate taxation measures, customs duties, and value-added taxes that apply just to mining. This sourcebook focuses on mineral royalties and on other taxation measures that are specific to mining activities, with particular emphasis on imposts of common application in most developing countries, which may create challenges in their administration. The legislative framework establishing these taxes in developing countries that are experiencing an accelerated pace of resource development is in most cases relatively modern and largely adequate, but the supporting administrative capability, procedures, and systems have tended to lag behind. This sourcebook presents a practical overview of how to analyze and improve the administrative frameworks and systems for mineral royalties and other taxes specific to mining. This sourcebook provides a structured approach to help the ministries of finance and mines analyze and improve their effectiveness and efficiency in handling common issues and challenges; avoid duplication of effort; and overcome the organizational, structural, and resourcing difficulties generally encountered in the administration of various elements of mining regimes.
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Rising prices for basic food products are back in the headlines and when food prices go up poor consumers in Africa, who spend the majority of their income on simple foodstuffs, suffer.
... See More + Rising food prices are also having important macroeconomic impacts on many African countries since more and more food is being imported from the global market leading to worsening balances of trade. This issue is not going to go away. Demand for food in Africa is projected to double by 2020 with consumers increasingly located in rapidly growing cities. Fortunately, as the World Bank shows in its recent report, Africa can help feed Africa; the continent does have the means and opportunities to deliver improved food security to its citizens. If African farmers were to achieve the yields that farmers attain in other developing countries, the output of food staples would easily double or even triple thereby creating new income opportunities for farmers and reducing Africas dependence on imports from the rest of the world. For this to happen, however, farmers need to be better linked to both inputs and to consumers. Often the nearest source of demand is a across a border yet fragmented regional markets and lack of predictable trade policies deter much needed private investments, including small investments by poor farmers in raising productivity to large investments in input supply, seed multiplication, and food marketing. This note looks at the regional trade situation for food staples and crop inputs in West Africa and types of barriers that need to be overcome for the region to achieve its potential in food trade.
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Small entrepreneurs in poor countries achieve relatively high marginal returns to capital but show only low re-investment rates. The literature is rather inconclusive about the possible causes.
... See More + The author explore whether apos;forced redistributionapos;, i.e. abusive demands by the kin, affects the allocation of capital and labor to the household firm. We use an original data set covering household firms in seven economic centers in Western Africa. The author find some evidence that family and kinship ties within the city rather enhance labor effort and the use of capital. However, the stronger the ties to the village of origin the lower input use which is supporting the apos;forced redistributionapos; hypothesis. Given that such redistribution is partly the consequence of a lack of formal insurance mechanisms, these results suggest that the provision of health insurance and other insurance devices may have positive indirect effects on private sector development.
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