Across Latin America, school dropout is a growing concern, because of its negative social and economic consequences. Although a wide range of interventions hold potential to reduce dropout rates, policy makers in many countries must first address the basic question of how to target limited resources effectively for such interventions.
... See More + Identifying who is most likely to drop out and, therefore, who should be prioritized for targeting, is a prediction problem that has been addressed in a rich set of research in countries with strong education system data. This paper makes use of newly established administrative data systems in Guatemala and Honduras, to estimate some of the first dropout prediction models for lower-middle-income countries. These models can correctly identify 80 percent of sixth grade students who will drop out in the transition to lower secondary school, performing as well as models used in the United States and providing more accurate results than other commonly used targeting approaches.
See Less -
Policy Research Working Paper WPS8142 JUL 10, 2017
The objective of the Crecer Sano: Guatemala Nutrition and Health Project is to improve selected practices, services and behaviors known to be key determinants of chronic malnutrition (with an emphasis on the first 1,000 days of life) in the intervention areas.
... See More + There are three components to the project, the first component being providing inter-sectoral services to address chronic malnutrition risk factors. This component will support provision of quality nutrition and health services to mothers and children; promotion of behavioral change interventions targeted to families and communities; improving access to safe drinking water and sanitation; and enhancing coordination across sectors. It will finance works for health posts, small water supply and sanitation systems, and select community centers, as well as equipment, medical and nonmedical supplies, health promotion activities, technical assistance, studies and training. The second component is the moving the focus towards results. This component will introduce results-based financing to: (i) promote the use of health services, including timely prenatal care; (ii) promote behavioral changes, including exclusive breastfeeding during the first six (6) months of life; and (iii) strengthen the CCT Program in the intervention areas. Finally, the third component is the supporting project management, monitoring and evaluation. This component will provide support to the MIDES Social Development Fund (Fondo de Desarrollo Social, FODES), or MIDES-FODES, for the carrying out of Project management, coordination and evaluation. It will finance consulting services including consultants to support MIDES-FODES, office equipment, training, and operating costs, and an external entity to evaluate achievement of the DLIs.
See Less -
The objective of the Crecer Sano: Guatemala Nutrition and Health Project is to improve selected practices, services and behaviors known to be key determinants of chronic malnutrition (with an emphasis on the first 1,000 days of life) in the intervention areas.
... See More + There are three components to the project, the first component being providing inter-sectoral services to address chronic malnutrition risk factors. This component will support provision of quality nutrition and health services to mothers and children; promotion of behavioral change interventions targeted to families and communities; improving access to safe drinking water and sanitation; and enhancing coordination across sectors. It will finance works for health posts, small water supply and sanitation systems, and select community centers, as well as equipment, medical and nonmedical supplies, health promotion activities, technical assistance, studies and training. The second component is the moving the focus towards results. This component will introduce results-based financing to: (i) promote the use of health services, including timely prenatal care; (ii) promote behavioral changes, including exclusive breastfeeding during the first six (6) months of life; and (iii) strengthen the CCT Program in the intervention areas. Finally, the third component is the supporting project management, monitoring and evaluation. This component will provide support to the MIDES Social Development Fund (Fondo de Desarrollo Social, FODES), or MIDES-FODES, for the carrying out of Project management, coordination and evaluation. It will finance consulting services including consultants to support MIDES-FODES, office equipment, training, and operating costs, and an external entity to evaluate achievement of the DLIs.
See Less -
Ratings of Enhancing Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise Productivity Project for Guatemala were as follows: outcomes were unsatisfactory, risk to development outcome was high, Bank performance was moderately unsatisfactory, and Borrower performance was unsatisfactory.
... See More + Some lessons learned included: (i) Sequential project designs—like that used in this project can significantly delay activities and disbursements if the project faces obstacles in one phase; (ii) While leaving some flexibility in project design is good, projects should have a defined design and set of M&E indicators, a sound economic and financial analysis, and an adequate Operations Manual before presentation to the Board; (iii) Establishing an adequate institutional framework during project preparation is critical; (iv) When designing a project, World Bank teams should review the country portfolio and identify possible synergies with other projects to avoid duplication and streamline of implementation; (v) Detailed social assessment and safeguards analysis early on in project design can produce critical information for the implementation of project activities; (vi) Projects should be designed with the aim to transcend political parties and remain a priority regardless of the government in power, and after each election, the incoming government should be sensitized and informed about the project very early on (even before the new administration takes office officially, and immediately after elections); (vii) Detailed discussions regarding the prevalence of the World Bank Procurement Guidelines before implementation and a thorough understanding of the processes on both the client side and the World Bank side are necessary to streamline the procurement processes; (viii) When key risk issues arise during implementation, it is important for the World Bank to react with agility; and (ix) Focusing on peripheral projects or proposals during implementation can distract the team from essential project objectives and delay implementation.
See Less -
Implementation Completion and Results Report ICR3999 MAR 01, 2017
The dramatic expansion of mobile phone use in developing countries has given rise to a rich and largely untapped source of information about the characteristics of communities and regions.
... See More + Call Detail Records (CDRs) obtained from cellular phones provide highly granular real-time data that can be used to assess socio-economic behavior including consumption, mobility, and social patterns. This paper examines the results of a CDR analysis focused on five administrative departments in the south west region of Guatemala, which used mobile phone data to predict observed poverty rates. Its findings indicate that CDR-based research methods have the potential to replicate the poverty estimates obtained from traditional forms of data collection, like household surveys or censuses, at a fraction of the cost. In particular, CDRs were more helpful in predicting urban and total poverty in Guatemala more accurately than rural poverty. Moreover, although the poverty estimates produced by CDR analysis do not perfectly match those generated by surveys and censuses, the results show that more comprehensive data could greatly enhance their predictive power. CDR analysis has especially promising applications in Guatemala and other developing countries, which suffer from high rates of poverty and inequality, and where limited fiscal and budgetary resources complicate the task of data collection and underscore the importance of precisely targeting public expenditures to achieve their maximum antipoverty impact.
See Less -
Policy Research Working Paper WPS7969 FEB 14, 2017
In the last years of the armed conflict, some of the actors that have participated in those clandestine operations re-adapted their modus operandi to fit other types of criminal activities such as customs corruption, large scale smuggling of goods, extortion and kidnapping for economic purposes, and drug trafficking.
... See More + Control of borders and logistical corridors became also an important feature for their operations, which in turn led to political control of territories and linkages with politicians. In the last years of the armed conflict, some of the actors that have participated in those clandestine operations re-adapted their modus operandi to fit other types of criminal activities such as customs corruption, large scale smuggling of goods, extortion and kidnapping for economic purposes, and drug trafficking. Control of borders and logistical corridors became also an important feature for their operations, which in turn led to political control of territories and linkages with politicians. International Commission to Fight Impunity (CICIG) has played a critical role in using and promoting a legislative framework that enhances criminal prosecution in Guatemala. In this regard, some national laws have been critical for its work. First, the Law Against Organized Crime (LCCO) approved in 2006, before CICIG´s creation. However, CICIG requested the Guatemalan Congress to consider some reforms in 2009 to allow for more prosecutorial power, using instruments widely known in criminal law but inexistent in Guatemalan legal framework at that time. The reforms were approved, and since then CICIG and the Attorney General Office have used extensively their enhanced capacity.
See Less -
The earthquake risk in Guatemala is more significant than the hurricane risk. Annual Average loss (AAL) from earthquakes is Unite States (U.S.) 325.3 million dollars (0.46 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)) and from hurricanes is U.S. 21.6 million dollars (0.04 percent of GDP).
... See More + The probable maximum loss for earthquakes (250 year return period) is U.S. 7.9 billion dollars (11.2 percent of GDP) and for hurricanes (250 year return period) is U.S. 622 million dollars (1 percent of GDP). Single-family, residential houses constructed with unreinforced concrete brick masonry are the buildings most vulnerable to earthquakes, accounting for over 40 percent of AAL. Most single family adobe buildings in Escuintla can be retrofitted up to the standards of good quality, wood frame buildings which will reduce the risk of adobe buildings by over 85 percent.
See Less -
The development objective of the Transparency and Efficiency in Tax Administration Project for Guatemala is to increase levels of compliance with tax and customs obligations.
... See More + The project comprises of three components. The first component, transparency, integrity and institutional development in Tax Administration Superintendence (SAT) objective is to help improve SAT’s governance, by supporting the implementation of the recently approved amendments to SAT’s organic law of SAT and strengthening its internal capacities. It consists of following three sub-components: (i) managing the SAT reform; (ii) strengthening human resource management and institutional integrity; and (iii) upgrading and integrating the information and communication technology (ICT) platform. The second component, strengthening of tax collection functions in internal revenues and customs objective is to strengthen the core processes of the primary tax collection and control functions in both internal revenues and customs. It consists of following two sub-components: (i) strengthening internal revenue collection processes; and (ii) strengthening customs services. The third component, objective is to strengthen SAT’s tax intelligence and enforcement capabilities. It consists of following three sub-components: (i) strengthening tax intelligence and tax audit; (ii) strengthening legal services; and (iii) tax appeals procedures in SAT.
See Less -
The objective of the Urban Infrastructure and Violence Prevention Project is to increase access to basic urban infrastructure and services and mitigate key risk factors of crime and violence in selected communities.
... See More + There are three components to the project, the first component being integrated package of small-scale urban infrastructure and violence prevention interventions. This component will finance the identification, preparation and execution of integrated packages of small-scale infrastructure and crime and violence prevention activities. This includes: (a) carrying out of technical assistance, capacity building and community mobilization activities to support the identification and preparation of subprojects in selected communities; (b) carrying out of small-scale infrastructure investments and/or prevention activities (Subprojects) in the territory of the urban or peri-urban (mixto) selected communities. The second component is the Technical Assistance for Capacity Building. This component seeks to strengthen the institutional capacity of Interior Ministry (MINGOB), CIVFSS, the Mancomunidad Gran Ciudad del Sur (MGCS), and participating municipalities (through MGCS). Finally, the third component is the project management, monitoring and evaluation. Component three will provide support to the PIU for project management, coordination and evaluation activities through, inter alia: (a) carrying out project audits; (b) conducting project outreach activities; (c) carrying out mid-term and impact evaluation surveys in order to evaluate the project’s impacts; (d) providing technical support on procurement, safeguards and financial management (FM) requirements, including the hiring of the PIU’s staff; and (e) financing operating costs. The Government is expected to cover the costs of staffing for key positions of the PIU. Finally, while data collection will be undertaken under component two, day to day M&E activities will be financed by component three.
See Less -
The objective of the Urban Infrastructure and Violence Prevention Project is to increase access to basic urban infrastructure and services and mitigate key risk factors of crime and violence in selected communities.
... See More + There are three components to the project, the first component being integrated package of small-scale urban infrastructure and violence prevention interventions. This component will finance the identification, preparation and execution of integrated packages of small-scale infrastructure and crime and violence prevention activities. This includes: (a) carrying out of technical assistance, capacity building and community mobilization activities to support the identification and preparation of subprojects in selected communities; (b) carrying out of small-scale infrastructure investments and/or prevention activities (Subprojects) in the territory of the urban or peri-urban (mixto) selected communities. The second component is the Technical Assistance for Capacity Building. This component seeks to strengthen the institutional capacity of Interior Ministry (MINGOB), CIVFSS, the Mancomunidad Gran Ciudad del Sur (MGCS), and participating municipalities (through MGCS). Finally, the third component is the project management, monitoring and evaluation. Component three will provide support to the PIU for project management, coordination and evaluation activities through, inter alia: (a) carrying out project audits; (b) conducting project outreach activities; (c) carrying out mid-term and impact evaluation surveys in order to evaluate the project’s impacts; (d) providing technical support on procurement, safeguards and financial management (FM) requirements, including the hiring of the PIU’s staff; and (e) financing operating costs. The Government is expected to cover the costs of staffing for key positions of the PIU. Finally, while data collection will be undertaken under component two, day to day M&E activities will be financed by component three.
See Less -
