Somalia is highly data-deprived, leaving policy makers to operate in a statistical vacuum. To overcome this challenge, the World Bank implemented wave 2 of the Somalia High Frequency Survey to better understand livelihoods and vulnerabilities and, especially, to estimate national poverty indicators.
... See More + The specific context of insecurity and lack of statistical infrastructure in Somalia posed several challenges for implementing a household survey and measuring poverty. This paper outlines how these challenges were overcome in wave 2 of the Somali High Frequency Survey through methodological and technological adaptations in four areas. First, in the absence of a recent census, no exhaustive lists of census enumeration areas along with population estimates existed, creating challenges to derive a probability-based representative sample. Therefore, geospatial techniques and high-resolution imagery were used to model the spatial population distribution, build a probability-based population sampling frame, and generate enumeration areas are to overcome the lack of a recent population census. Second, although some areas remained completely inaccessible due to insecurity, even more accessible areas held potential risks to the safety of field staff and survey respondents, so that time spent in these areas has to be minimized. To address security concerns, the survey adapted logistical arrangements, sampling strategy using micro-listing, and questionnaire design to limit time on the ground based on the Rapid Consumption Methodology. Third, poverty in completely inaccessible areas had to be estimated by other means. Therefore, the Somali High Frequency Survey relies on correlates derived from satellite imagery and other geo-spatial data to estimate poverty in such areas. Finally, the nonstationary nature of the nomadic population required special sampling strategies.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134661 FEB 14, 2019
Real GDP growth slowed to 3.1 percent in January-November 2018 from 3.7 percent in the same period of 2017. This deceleration was the result of slower growth in both gold production and non-gold industry.
... See More + Export performance remains weak, largely on account of a sharp slowdown in gold exports, and in spite of trade opportunities within the Eurasian Economic Union. Attracting private investment remains a challenge. Recent developments point to limited progress in addressing structural issues over the past few years. While the Kyrgyz Republic was able to avoid an external shock driven recession in 2014-15, the economy remains vulnerable to external economic shocks given its high dependence on an undiversified export base, workers’ remittances, and foreign aid.The fiscal position has improved with a strong tax revenue performance and cuts to capital outlays. This has helped keeping public debt under control following a sharp increase in 2014-15. With inflation pressures low, the monetary policy stance remains relaxed. The National Bank reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent in May 2018 to support economic growth and has maintained a managed float of the exchange rate.Going forward, real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate slowly to 3.9 percent by 2020 supported by all the major sectors – industry, agriculture, construction and services. On the demand side, growth is projected to be driven by private consumption, investment and exports. The economy will continue to benefit from large remittance inflows and firming external demand. Strong remittances will support average consumption growth of around 3 percent in 2018–20. However, the current account deficit is projected to remain elevated at about 9 percent of GDP, reflecting structural constraints, the significant import content of public investment, and an indirect feed-through effect of remittances via imports. To rebuild fiscal buffers, the authorities are committed to reducing the deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2020.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134473 FEB 07, 2019
Real GDP growth slowed to 3.1 percent in January-November 2018 from 3.7 percent in the same period of 2017. This deceleration was the result of slower growth in both gold production and non-gold industry.
... See More + Export performance remains weak, largely on account of a sharp slowdown in gold exports, and in spite of trade opportunities within the Eurasian Economic Union. Attracting private investment remains a challenge. Recent developments point to limited progress in addressing structural issues over the past few years. While the Kyrgyz Republic was able to avoid an external shock driven recession in 2014-15, the economy remains vulnerable to external economic shocks given its high dependence on an undiversified export base, workers’ remittances, and foreign aid.The fiscal position has improved with a strong tax revenue performance and cuts to capital outlays. This has helped keeping public debt under control following a sharp increase in 2014-15. With inflation pressures low, the monetary policy stance remains relaxed. The National Bank reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent in May 2018 to support economic growth and has maintained a managed float of the exchange rate.Going forward, real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate slowly to 3.9 percent by 2020 supported by all the major sectors – industry, agriculture, construction and services. On the demand side, growth is projected to be driven by private consumption, investment and exports. The economy will continue to benefit from large remittance inflows and firming external demand. Strong remittances will support average consumption growth of around 3 percent in 2018–20. However, the current account deficit is projected to remain elevated at about 9 percent of GDP, reflecting structural constraints, the significant import content of public investment, and an indirect feed-through effect of remittances via imports. To rebuild fiscal buffers, the authorities are committed to reducing the deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2020.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134473 FEB 07, 2019
Expectations of future socioeconomic mobility are an important determinant of current policy preferences. But how may these expectations be formed?
... See More + Using Life in Transition survey data for a large set of transition economies and several Western European countries, this paper examines the link between beliefs about the importance of personal connections for getting access to opportunities, such as a good job or university education, and expectations of future socioeconomic mobility. The analysis of survey data finds evidence that: (i) lack of connections is associated with expectations of a lower position on the future social ladder; and (ii) when informal connections are unavailable, it matters for your aspirations whether you perceive connections to be vital or not. There is also some evidence that in the European Union, where formal institutions are stronger, individuals are less likely to resort to informal institutions such as personal connections, even when these are available. Perceptions of unequal access to opportunities are also linked with stronger redistributive preferences. Finally, there is some evidence that unequal access to opportunities is associated not only with lower intragenerational mobility, but also with lower intergenerational mobility.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134427 FEB 06, 2019
The High Frequency South Sudan Survey, implemented by the South Sudan National Bureau of Statistics in collaboration with the World Bank, conducted several waves of representative surveys across seven of the ten former states between 2015 and 2017.
... See More + These surveys provided a long overdue update to poverty numbers in South Sudan, with the previous national poverty estimates dating as far back as 2009. The escalation and expansion of the civil conflict posed severe challenges to the planning and implementation of fieldwork. The surveys therefore capitalized on several technological and methodological innovations to establish a reliable system of data collection and obtain valid poverty estimates. Focusing on the 2016 urban-rural wave, this paper describes the design and analysis of the survey to arrive at reliable poverty estimates for South Sudan, utilizing the Rapid Consumption Methodology combines with geo-spatial data for inaccessible survey areas.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134221 JAN 30, 2019
This paper examines the level of investment protection for selected countries along the Belt &Road Initiative (BRI), based on coding the textual content of 17 investment laws and 648international investment agreements (IIAs).
... See More + We find substantial heterogeneity in the levels ofprotection provided in the reviewed laws and IIAs, and consequently along the same BRI corridorsand projects. Moreover, the current lack of effective enforcement – as shown by past treatyviolations and lack of efficient domestic court systems – poses an additional layer of risk forinvestors. Substantive improvements and harmonization in standards of treatment and recoursemechanisms in these legal instruments can help reduce investment risks. Given the scale of plannedinvestments, to minimize dispute risks, BRI governments will need to ensure full understandingof their law and treaty commitments and strengthen the capacity to enforce them.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134017 JAN 24, 2019
Understanding the magnitude and importance of income shocks, such as drought or conflict, in causing and perpetuating poverty is critical to designing policies aimed at building resilience and contributing toward the goal of ending poverty.
... See More + This paper uses micro-data from two waves of the Somali High Frequency Survey to assess the impact of the severe drought that Somalia experiences in 2016/17 on poverty, hunger, and consumption. The analysis uses a regression framework to quantify the effects of the drought, relying on spatial variation in drought exposure and the timing of data collection, which took place before and during the drought, for identification. The drought is found to have a sizable effect on poverty, consumption, and hunger in rural areas, where agricultural households and those lacking access to infrastructure and basic services are most severely affected. A renewed drought shock could lead to an increase in poverty of 9 percentage points. The findings underscore the importance of investing in rural resilience, especially among agricultural households.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 133692 JAN 11, 2019
This paper examines the patterns of growth of Poland, and its transition into high-income status over the past two decades from a macro and micro perspective.
... See More + It benchmarks Polish performance with that observed in established high-income countries, and with that of others that have been trapped in middle--income levels and examines the role that integration into the EU had on growth. The analysis reveals, first, that Poland’s growth process has been accompanied by a process of diversification of assets, including institutions, physical and human capital. Second, that the progressive integration into the EU bloc boosted growth and productivity because of three keyfactors: (i) increased openness to trade, investment and talent, (ii) increased domestic competition, and regulatory harmonization with EU, (iii) increased certainty in reforms, through a commitment to EU-institutions. Third, that for full convergence to high-income levels, Polish firms need to increase their innovative capacities. The paper extracts lessons applicable to other economies trapped in middle-income levels, as well as to Poland itself to consolidate growth looking forward.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 133617 JAN 09, 2019
Food consumed outside the home in restaurants or other food establishments is a growing segment of consumption in many developing countries.
... See More + However, the survey methods that are utilized to collect data on expenditures on food away from home are often simplistic and could potentially result in inaccurate reporting. This study addresses the potential inaccuracy of commonly used methods and tests potentially superior methods to inform best practices when collecting data on consumption of food away from home. A household survey experiment was implemented in Hanoi, Vietnam, to test different methods. Using a food away from home consumption diary as a benchmark, the study finds that many of the alternative methods considered -- including asking about consumption in one line (the existing practice in Vietnam) or asking each individual about their food away from home --lead to underreporting (33 and 22 percent underestimates, respectively). Surprisingly, using one respondent and helping them with recall with a simple worksheet as well as bound (two-visits) results in food away from home estimates that are indistinguishable from those reported in the benchmark diary. This finding implies that there is a more cost-effective way to collect accurate data on food away from home than an intensive daily diary. Furthermore, it highlights the inaccuracy associated with collecting data on consumption of food away from home from a single question in a survey. Although limited analysis can be conducted on the implications for poverty, the study finds that the profiles of the poorest households differ across different method of collecting information on food consumed away from home.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 133570 JAN 08, 2019
Economic performance in 2018 has been mixed. The data that are available suggest some areas of softening in the economy.1 Foreign direct investment declined to 2 percent of GDP in 2017, down from about 5 percent in 2014.
... See More + The current account deficit has increased to 3.8 percent of GDP in the year ending September 2018, from 2.2 in the preceding 12 months. Recent Bank of Tanzania data confirm lower cashew exports and 2017 decline in non-traditional exports has continued into 2018, which raises concerns on prospects for longer term growth. The Tanzania Revenue Authority is reporting that many large tax payers are unable to meet their tax obligations on time. Nonperforming loans have declined recently to 9.7 percent in September 2018 from 12.5 percent in September 2017, but remain almost double the 5 percent statutory threshold. Banks have limited lending to businesses and interest rates are high (18 percent for one-year loans in August 2018), though some banks have lowered benchmark lending rates. On a positive note, credit to the private sector has been edging up, reaching 4.9 percent in the 12 months ending September 2018. The fiscal deficit is still low, not counting payment arrears and delayed refunds of value-added tax. The 2017/18 budget deficit after grants of 1.3 percent of GDP suggests effective spending management but does not factor in payment arrears, with an estimated stock of over 3 percent of GDP. Government is paying down roughly TZS 1 trillion of verified arrears per fiscal year. The low deficit is the result of controlled recurrent expenditures and under execution of the development budget by more than 40 percent. Contributing factors include shortfalls in domestic revenue and external financing for large projects. Public debt is currently sustainable, but there is need for the Government to consider cost-effective financing options and manage associated risks to support public investments. The 2018/19 budget targets public investment to consume 45 percent of total spending, equivalent to 9.1 percent of GDP compared to 5.5 a year prior.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134094 JAN 01, 2019
This paper investigates the effects of multiple weather shocks on household welfare in Mozambique, as well as some of the coping responses and price mechanisms at play.
... See More + The analysis employs a triple-difference strategy that exploits variation in the shocks across space, time, and cropping cycles. The findings demonstrate high levels of vulnerability across various weather risks. Experiencing a cyclone, flood, or drought leads to a drop of up to 25-30 percent in per capita food consumption and around 0.4 fewer meals per day per person. Poverty increased by 12 and 17.5 percentage points in two of the three events analyzed. Human capital accumulation, as measured by school participation and morbidity, is disrupted. Households follow risk-coping strategies, such as increasing the labor supply of their children or selling assets, which entail partial protection in the aftermath of the shock at the cost of lower income growth in the future. In disentangling the channels, the paper shows that maize prices exhibit higher volatility in food markets that are spatially close to the most affected areas. The results are robust to several robustness checks, including analysis of bias from selective migration, and indicate that household welfare and economic mobility in low-income environments are constrained by uninsured weather risks.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 132800 DEC 01, 2018
In the first half of 2018, the economy continued to expand at a brisk pace, well on track for Rwanda to achieve 7.2 percent growth in 2018. GDP growth was 8.6 percent, following 9.3 percent growth in the second half of 2017.
... See More + Growth in production was again broad-based. As it continued to recover from recent droughts, agriculture expanded by 7.6 percent. Industry has also regained momentum as large construction projects resumed and foodprocessing was strong. Growth in services was a healthy 8.7 percent. On demand side, investments were the main driver of growth. After stagnating for close to two years, private consumption grew 5 percent. Driven by strong domestic demand, imports rose by 12 percent in real terms. Exports continued to grow at a healthy 10.8 percent in real terms, although net exports contributed negatively, being outpaced by growth in imports. Solid growth was coupled with low inflation, and pressures on the exchange rate have dissipated. Headline inflation as of September 2018 was 1.2 percent. The Rwandan franc had by then depreciated by about 2 percent after the major external adjustment of 2017. A supportive macroeconomic environment has allowed the National Bank of Rwanda to keepthe policy rate at 5 percent throughout the year. Nonperforming loans are trending down with the help of a new regulation on credit classification and provisioning. Credit growth, however, is still slow: after seeing their credit portfolios deteriorate in 2016–17, banks have become more risk-averse. The banking sector continues to be well-capitalized—the ratio of capital to risk-weighted assets is well above the minimum requirements.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 132832 DEC 01, 2018
This paper examines the links between adverse events, depression, and decision making in Nigeria. It investigates how events such as conflicts, shocks, and deaths can affect short-term perceptions of welfare, as well as longer term decisions on economic activities and human capital investments.
... See More + First, the findings show that exposure to conflict has the largest and strongest relationship with depression, associated with a 15.3 percentage point increase in the probability of reporting depressive symptoms (from a base of 22 percent). This is equivalent to a reduction in annual per capita income of around 52 US dollars (in present day terms). Second, the study randomized the timing of the module on adverse events with respect to the mental health module. The analysis finds that individuals who were reminded about their history of adverse events (provided that they had one) have a 6.5 percentage point higher probability of reporting depressive symptoms. The final sets of results show that depression is associated with lower labor force participation and child educational investment. People with depressive symptoms are 8 percentage points less likely to work; this is driven by a reduction in engagement in agricultural activities for men and self-employment for women. In addition, households with a parent exhibiting depressive symptoms spend 20 percentage points less on education. These results suggest that there is a direct link between mental health, welfare perceptions, and decision making, beyond the indirect link via exposure to adverse effects.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 133142 DEC 01, 2018
This paper explores the methodological differences underlying the construction of the national consumption aggregates that are used to estimate international poverty rates for all countries in the South Asia region, including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
... See More + The analysis draws on a regional dataset of standardized consumption aggregates to assess the sensitivity of international poverty rates to the items included in national consumption aggregates. A key feature of the standardized aggregate is that it includes the reported value of housing rent for urban Indian homeowners. Using the standardized consumption aggregates reduces the international poverty rate in South Asia by 1.3 percentage points, or about 18.5 million people. Comparing standardized and non-standardized monetary welfare indicators to other nonmonetary indicators suggests that the latter are more consistent with the standardized consumption aggregates. Overall, the results strongly suggest that harmonizing the construction of welfare measures, particularly the treatment of imputed rent, can meaningfully improve the accuracy of international poverty comparisons.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 133138 DEC 01, 2018
This paper investigates the effect of multiple minimum wages, known as remuneration, on employment and working hours in Mauritius. Using data between 2004 and 2014, the analysis indicates that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wages brings about a slightly positive effect on employment in the covered sector, with an estimated employment elasticity of 0.113, which is within the range of elasticities found in previous studies of employment effects of minimum wages in low- and middle-income countries.
... See More + The positive employment effect of minimum wages is also associated with a 2.3 percent increase in average working hours for men but a 1.8 percent decline in average working hours for women in the covered sector. In the uncovered sector, the significant positive effect along with the intensive margin, estimated at 4.2 percent, is driven by changes in labor supply among men.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 133297 DEC 01, 2018
In parts of Asia, South Caucasus, and the Balkans, son preference is strong enough to trigger significant levels of sex selection, result in the excess mortality of girls, and skew child sex ratios in favor of boys.
... See More + Every year, 1.8 million girls under the age of five go “missing” because of the widespread use of sex selective practices in these regions. The pervasive use of such practices is reflective of the striking inequities girls face today, and it also has negative implications for efforts to improve women’s status in the long term. Consequently, governmentsof countries in these regions have employed direct measures, such as banning the use of prenatal sex selection technology and providing financial incentives to families that have girls. This paper takes stock of the direct measures used across countries grappling with skewed child sex ratios and compares the efficacy of direct measures with measures that indirectly raise the value of daughters. The stocktaking suggests that there is no conclusive evidence that direct approaches reduce the higher mortality risk for girls. Bans on the use of sex selection technology may inadvertently worsen the status of the very individuals they intend to protect, and financial incentives to families with girls offer short-term benefits at most. Alternatively, indirect measures, such as legal reform to promote gender equity and advocacy efforts, offer more promise by bringing about permanent shifts in the relative value of daughters. The stocktaking also underscores the paucity of causal studies in this literature.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 131795 NOV 01, 2018
This paper uses Mongolia’s Household Socio Economic Survey for 2016 to estimate the distributive impact of taxes and transfers. The findings show that the system is progressive and contributes to reductions in poverty and inequality.
... See More + The Gini coefficient of the pre-tax-and-transfer income is 0.4183 and decreases to 0.3507 after-tax-and transfer. This is a reduction of 6.76 Gini points (around 16 percent). Something similar happens with the poverty rate, which decreases from 47.31 to 31.96 percent. Despite the progressiveness of the whole system, there are some caveats and policy warnings. First, pensions are the most redistributive instrument in the system, but their actuarial and fiscal sustainability is weak. Second, two programs (the child money program and the mortgage subsidy) do little redistribution—the latter is actually regressive—but represent alarge share of the budget (around 2.5 percent of gross domestic product). These two factors, and the fact that up to a 35 percent of total expenditures in monetary and in-kind transfers is funded by corporate taxes and royalties—which are highly dependent on volatile commodity prices—make the redistributive impact of the tax and transfer system susceptible to fiscal unsustainability.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 131852 NOV 01, 2018
Boosting convergence and shared prosperity in the European Union achieved renewed urgency after the global financial crisis of 2008. This paper assesses the role of agriculture and the Common Agricultural Program in achieving this.
... See More + The paper sheds light on the relationship between poverty and agriculture as part of the process of structural transformation. It positions each member country on the path toward a successful structural transformation. The paper then evaluates at the regional level where the Common Agricultural Program funding tends to go, poverty-wise, within each country. This approach enables making more informed policy recommendations on the current state of the Common Agricultural Program funding, as well as evaluating the role of agriculture as a driver of shared prosperity. The analysis performed throughout the paper uses a combination of data sources at several spatial levels.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 131851 NOV 01, 2018
Azevedo,Joao Pedro Wagner De; Van Den Brink,Rogier J. E.; Corral Rodas,Paul Andres; Avila Acosta,Montserrat; Zhao,Hongxi; Mostafavi Dehzooei,MohammadhadiDisclosed
Whether individuals and job opportunities are well connected is a key determinant or productive urban labor markets. The overall level of job accessibility in a city depends on the locations of jobs and workers' residences, as well as transport networks.
... See More + Moreover, who has good access to job opportunities hinges on the trade-off faced by households in their residential choices over job accessibility, living conditions, and housing costs. This paper empirically analyzes the spatial distributions of job accessibility, housing rents, and poverty in Nairobi, Kenya. It finds that workers and jobs are not well connected in the city: Nairobi residents can on average access fewer than 10 percent of existing jobs by foot within an hour. Even using a minibus, they can reach only about a quarter of the jobs. This paper further shows the poorer households and/or those who live in informal settlements can reach a more limited number of jobs. Living closer to job opportunities is indeed costly in Nairobi, not only because housing quality and living conditions tend to be better in such areas, but also job accessibility itself is valued as a great amenity in the housing markets, which challenges low-income households' residential location choices.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 132529 NOV 01, 2018
This paper reports on a rapid assessment of Malawi’s integrated social registry, known as the Unified Beneficiary Registry (UBR). The timing of the assessment was ripe given the upcoming round of continued expansion of the UBR and a planned shift in registration targets (from 50 percent to 100 percent of households).
... See More + As such, the objectives of this assessment are to: (a) review the UBR experience to date; (b) identify strengths and areas for improvement; (c) provide short-term recommendations to support the upcoming expansion, including implementation adaptations that would be needed to accommodate the revised registration targets; and (d) support the longer-term strengthening of the UBR. While primary audience for this paper includes the core stakeholders in Malawi, the report is also of potential interest to other countries interested in developing social registries and/or carrying out social registry assessments.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 132144 NOV 01, 2018
