The Republic of Yemen has undergone a profound transformation following the escalation of conflict in March 2015. There has been an increase in violence, a disruption in supply chains due to a tightening of the ports, and a decline in the general economic climate that has left a large share of the population without the income to support their basic needs.
... See More + These transformations have resulted in widespread food insecurity, where nearly half the population is under the threat of a potential famine. Although the violence has undeniably had a significant impact on the population and local outcomes, the temporal and regional distribution of poor food access suggest that food insecurity of the mobile phone-using population has been primarily driven by factors aside from the localized effects of violence alone. The lack of a strong relationship between violence and poor welfare outcomes contrasts with evidence from other conflict settings, and further contrasts with the rationale underpinning much of the humanitarian and development assistance currently being delivered in the country.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 136051 APR 10, 2019
E-commerce has developed rapidly in China, and Taobao Villages, which are villages significantly engaged in ecommerce, are prospering in rural areas.
... See More + E-commerce is fostering entrepreneurship and creating flexible and inclusive employment opportunities, including for women and youth. This paper examines the role of ecommerce participation in household income growth, drawing from a survey of representative Taobao Villages in 2017. The paper presents three main findings. First, e-commerce participation is not random: participation is higher among the households with younger household heads, with secondary education, particularly those with technical and vocational education, urban work experience, and knowledge of e-commerce. Second, ecommerce participation is associated with higher household income, with some indications that participation has a strong positive effect on household incomes. Third, e-commerce appears to yield benefits that are broadly shared among participants in an equitable way in Taobao Villages.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 136050 APR 10, 2019
China has quickly become the largest e-commerce market in the world. By matching a nationally representative China Family Pane Studies survey with county-level e-commerce information obtained from Alibaba, this paper examines how e-commerce development has shaped household consumption growth in China.
... See More + The paper presents three major findings. Frist, e-commerce development is associated with higher consumption growth. Second, the relationship is stronger for the rural sample, inland regions, and poor households, suggesting that e-commerce development helps reduce spatial inequality in consumption. Third, the consumption of durable goods and in-style goods has grown faster than the consumption of local services.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 136047 APR 10, 2019
This study analyzes the impacts of the recent rural road development in Ethiopia on welfare and economic outcomes. The identification of the impacts relies on a difference-in-differences matching approach, taking advantage of the nationally representative household survey and the original road database, both of which are panel data spanning between 2012 and 2016.
... See More + The results of the econometric analysis overall suggest that Ethiopia's recent rural road development has substantially increased household welfare and supported households in coping with the recent severe droughts. This study estimates that rural roads increase, on average, household consumption by 16.1 percent between 2012 and 2016 (or 3.8 percent per year). The effects of rural road development were largest in the most remote communities, as it increased household consumption by 27.9 percent. Furthermore, in the communities most affected by the El Nino drought, the likelihood of falling into poverty was 14.4 percent lower between 2012 and 2016 if the community was connected by a rural road. Taken together, the results suggest that, by connecting remote communities to markets. Rural roads have substantially increased the welfare and resilience of rural household in shock-prone environments.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 136049 APR 10, 2019
This study analyzes the impacts of recent rural development in Ethiopia on welfare and economic outcomes. The identification of impacts relies on difference in differences matching approach, taking advantage of the nationally representative household survey and the original road database, both of which are panel data spanning between 2012 and 2016.
... See More + The results of the econometric analysis overall suggest that Ethiopia’s recent rural road development has substantially increased household welfare and supported households in copying with the recent severe droughts. This study estimates that rural roads increased, on average household consumption by 27.9 percent. Furthermore, in the communities most affected by the El Nino drought, the likelihood of falling into poverty was 14.4 percent lower between 2012 and 2016 if the community was connected by a rural road. Taken together, the results suggested that, by connecting remote communities to markets, rural roads have substantially increased the welfare and resilience of rural households in shock-prone environments.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135748 APR 01, 2019
The Kenyan economy rebounded in 2018 and economic activity in the first quarter of 2019 was healthy, although emerging drought conditions could curtail GDP growth for the remainder of the year.
... See More + The economy expanded by 6.0 percent in the first three quarters of 2018 compared to 4.7 percent during the same period in 2017 driven by strong private consumption in part due to improved income from agricultural harvests in 2018, remittance inflows, and lower food prices. The Bank's GDP growth estimate for 2018 is about 5.8 percent. A strong pick-up in economic activity in Q1 of 2019 was reflected by real growth in consumer spending and stronger investor sentiment. Nonetheless, a delayed start to the March-May 2019 "long" rainy season could affect the planting season-resulting in poor harvests. In addition, ongoing emergency intervention to address food shortages in several counties could impose fiscal pressure constraining capital spending. These developments have slowed the growth forecast for 2019 and for the medium term relative to our October 2018 Update. Inflation remains within the government's target range of 5±2.5 percent. Headline inflation averaged 4.7 percent in 2018 compared to 8.0 percent in 2017, primarily due to the slowdown in food inflation, which in turn offset a temporary acceleration in energy prices. Further, core inflation has remained below 5 percent, suggesting benign underlying demand pressures. With low inflation, monetary policy could be more accommodative to support growth if needed, but with interest rate caps tied to the policy rate, further loosening would be constrained. The low inflationary pressure has also been supported by a stable local currency. The shilling has traded within a narrow band of Ksh100/US Dollas-Ksh.103/US Dollars in 2018, thereby serving as a nominal anchor to inflationary expectations
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135870 APR 01, 2019
Financial conditions in recent years have provided developing countries with unprecedentedopportunities to tap international bond markets, increasing access to commercial debtfinancing.
... See More + On that background, developing countries are broadening the range of debtinstruments employed in implementing debt management strategies, and this has changed therisk profile of their public debt portfolios. The target audience of this Discussion Paper is thesovereign debt manager, with a special focus on first time/infrequent issuer in Low IncomeDeveloping Countries. The Guidance Note does not discuss whether countries should issueinternational bonds or not, but, rather, focus on the process of issuing such instruments, giventhe lack of objective and independent guidance available for issuers. The note outlines a stepby-step process and provides practical advice.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135950 APR 01, 2019
van der Wansem, Patrick B. G.; Jessen,Lars; Rivetti,DiegoDisclosed
Tobacco taxes have positive impacts on health outcomes. However, policy makers often hesitate to use them because of the perception that poorer households are affected disproportionally more than richer households.
... See More + This study compares the simulated distributional effects of tobacco tax increases in eight- low- and middle-income countries. It applies a standardized extended cost-benefit analysis methodology and relies on comparable data sources across countries. The net effect of raising taxes on cigarettes encompasses the direct negative price shock to household budgets and the long-term benefits of improved health outcomes. The distributional incidence is assessed by estimating decile-specific behavioral responses and relative incomes gains. The comparative results do not support the claim that tobacco taxes are necessarily regressive. Although welfare losses from the first-order price shock disproportionally affect the poor, these negative shocks are attenuated by greater price-responsiveness among lower-income groups and further offset by higher long-term relative gains through reduced medical expenditures and additional years of productive life as taxes dissuade smoking. In several countries, increasing the price of cigarettes is pro-poor and welfare improving for a large share of the population. Along with raising taxes, policy should aim at encouraging responsiveness to price changes and target tobacco-related medical expenses that disproportionally burden the poor.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135954 APR 01, 2019
This note analyzes household survey data and firm-level data to measure gender gaps in employment outcomes over the past 15 years and shed light on the degree to which economic growth has translated into more and better jobs for men and women, and the relative impact on each group.
... See More + The analysis relies primarily on micro-level data from the annual household survey Encuesta Permanente de Hogares for 2001 through 2016, the Encuesta Continua de Empleo for 2010-2014, the Censo Economico 2011, a census of firms, and the 2015-16 Encuesta de Empresas, a survey of firms. Patterns in labor supply and its correlates are examined using household-level data, and the analysis considers how gender and other worker characteristics are related to labor market outcomes. In addition, this note explores the degree to which private sector labor demand and firm productivity differ by workforce gender; this is done using firm-level data to examine the drivers of firm performance and employment growth. The note is structured as follows. Section 1 provides an overview of the main findings. Section 2 examines recent socio-demographic trends that have affected the number of women entering the labor market in Paraguay. Section 3 analyzes gender differentials in labor market outcomes relating to work status, sector of employment and earnings, inter alia. Section 4 considers the gender composition of labor demand by private sector firms, and section 5 concludes with a discussion of policy options for the future.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135839 APR 01, 2019
Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to have decelerated from 2.5 percent in 2017 to 2.3 percent in 2018, below the rate of growth of the population for the fourth consecutive year, and 0.4 percentage point lower than projected in the October 2018 issue of Africa's Pulse.
... See More + This slowdown was more pronounced in the first half of 2018 and reflected weaker exports from the region's large oil exporters (Nigeria and Angola), due to falling oil production amid higher but volatile international crude oil prices. A deeper contraction in Sudanese economic activity, and a slowdown among non-resource-intensive countries, also played a role. Recent data point to a moderate strengthening of growth in the region. Growth is projected to pick up to 2.8 percent in 2019 and 3.3 percent in 2020. This gradual recovery is supported, on the demand side, by exports and private consumption and, on the supply side, by a rebound in agricultural production and an increase in mining production and services in some countries. The 2019 and 2020 growth forecasts are still 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, lower than predicted in the October issue of Africa's Pulse. This downward revision reflects slower growth in Nigeria and Angola, due to challenges in the oil sector, and subdued investment growth in South Africa, due to low business confidence. The external environment facing Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be challenging, as economic activity in advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) continues to decelerate, global industrial production declines, and global uncertainty related to trade disputes between the United States and China remains high. Although most industrial commodity prices recovered in the first three months of 2019, following sharp declines in late 2018, and the prices of metals and agricultural commodities are expected to stabilize, the oil market outlook remains highly uncertain and dependent on whether the production cuts among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will be extended. Financing conditions have eased for EMDEs, as the U.S. Federal Reserve paused its policy rate increases.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135861 APR 01, 2019
Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to have decelerated from 2.5 percent in 2017 to 2.3 percent in 2018, below the rate of growth of the population for the fourth consecutive year, and 0.4 percentage point lower than projected in the October 2018 issue of Africa's Pulse.
... See More + This slowdown was more pronounced in the first half of 2018 and reflected weaker exports from the region's large oil exporters (Nigeria and Angola), due to falling oil production amid higher but volatile international crude oil prices. A deeper contraction in Sudanese economic activity, and a slowdown among non-resource-intensive countries, also played a role. Recent data point to a moderate strengthening of growth in the region. Growth is projected to pick up to 2.8 percent in 2019 and 3.3 percent in 2020. This gradual recovery is supported, on the demand side, by exports and private consumption and, on the supply side, by a rebound in agricultural production and an increase in mining production and services in some countries. The 2019 and 2020 growth forecasts are still 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, lower than predicted in the October issue of Africa's Pulse. This downward revision reflects slower growth in Nigeria and Angola, due to challenges in the oil sector, and subdued investment growth in South Africa, due to low business confidence. The external environment facing Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be challenging, as economic activity in advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) continues to decelerate, global industrial production declines, and global uncertainty related to trade disputes between the United States and China remains high. Although most industrial commodity prices recovered in the first three months of 2019, following sharp declines in late 2018, and the prices of metals and agricultural commodities are expected to stabilize, the oil market outlook remains highly uncertain and dependent on whether the production cuts among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will be extended. Financing conditions have eased for EMDEs, as the U.S. Federal Reserve paused its policy rate increases.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135861 APR 01, 2019
This paper examines the quality of management practices in Turkey and its relation to other firm-level characteristics such as firm performance, competition, and type of ownership.
... See More + A key finding is that management quality is positively correlated with productivity and quality of jobs across subsectors of manufacturing. But the average score of management quality in Turkey is relatively low compared to peer countries. Factors such as firm size, level of human capital of the workforce, export intensity of the firm, openness to international markets, level of hierarchy in decision making, and degree of managerial autonomy are found to be important determinants of managerial practices in Turkey. Thus, improvements in these dimensions, through relevant policies and incentives, can have a positive effect on the quality of firm management going forward.Such improvements in management practices—particularly in the two dimensions whereTurkey scores lowest: monitoring and targeting—can have positive effects on firmperformance and lead to increases in the creation of quality jobs.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 136314 APR 01, 2019
This study assesses the redistributive impact of fiscal policy – including expenditures and taxation – in the Arab Republic of Egypt. Using a broadly applied methodology, a fiscal incidence analysis is conducted using survey and government data for fiscal year 2015.
... See More + Evidence shows that Egyptian fiscal policy reduces income inequality, and that among individual fiscal programs, the largest reduction is due to public expenditures on the primary education system. Compared with similar countries, Egypt's overall fiscal policy placed it in the median of the distribution of inequality reduction. Fiscal policies in Egypt also led to a decrease in poverty, mostly from the flagship Tamween program. Poverty and inequality could be reduced more effectively if the country would shift away from spending on untargeted energy subsidies to more targeted transfers. The large gap between the government's expenditures and revenues helps explain the positive outcomes on poverty and inequality but poses challenges in the long term.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 136315 APR 01, 2019
Country-level census data are typically collected once every 10 years. However, conflict, migration, urbanization, and natural disasters can cause rapid shifts in local population patters.
... See More + This study uses Sri Lankan data to demonstrate the feasibility of a bottom-up method that combines household survey data with contemporaneous satellite imagery to track frequent changes in local population density. A Poisson regression model based on indicators derived from satellite data, selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, accurately predicts village-level population density. The model is estimated in villages sampled in the 2012/13 Household Income and Expenditure Survey to obtain out-of-sample density predictions in the non-surveyed villages. The predictions approximate the 2012 census density well are more accurate that the other bottom-up studies based on lower-resolution satellite data. The predictions are also more accurate than most publicly available population products, which rely on areal interpolation of census data to redistribute population at the local level. The accuracies are similar when estimated using a random forest model, and when density estimates are expressed in terms of population counts. The collective evidence suggests that combining surveys with satellite data is a cost-effective method to track local population changes at more frequent intervals.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135265 MAR 12, 2019
The paper employs the Commitment to Equity framework to present a first attempt at a comprehensive fiscal incidence analysis for Ukraine, encompassing the revenue and expenditures components of the fiscal system, including direct and indirect taxes, as well as direct, indirect, and in-kind transfers.
... See More + The fiscal system in Ukraine has high redistribution effects, decreasing the Gini inequality index by 21 percentage points, and the official measure of poverty incidence by 27.6 percentage points (considering all fiscal interventions including in-kind transfers). As in many other countries in the region, pensions are the main contributor to the redistribution effect of fiscal policy. However, Ukraine stands out due to the relatively high equalizing effect of direct transfers. Fiscal policy in Ukraine is pro-poor, with the lowest income decile benefiting the most. Overall, 60 percent of the population of Ukraine are net recipients from the fiscal system, the main categories of recipients being households with two or more children, single-parent households, and retirees.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135124 MAR 06, 2019
This paper examines the public sector wage premium using nationally representative household surveys from 91 countries. The public sector generally pays a wage premium compared to all private sector salaried employees, but the size of the premium is sensitive to the choice of the private sector comparator and varies considerably by worker characteristics.
... See More + For most countries, the average premium disappears when the public sector is compared to only formal sector private employees, especially when controlling for occupation. The public sector wage premium is higher for women and low-skilled workers. In contrast, high-skilled public sector employees are most often paid the same as their private sector counterparts or may even pay a penalty for working in the public sector. Consistent with this, the public sector premium is greater for employees with less education, those working in lower paid occupations, and those earnings fall in the lower part of the conditional earnings distribution. Across countries, the wage premium is only weakly associated with countries' level of development. The findings nuance the existing consensus that public sector workers tend to enjoy a significant wage premium over their private sector counterparts, and that this premium is especially large in low-income countries
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135098 FEB 25, 2019
Iraq needs a strategy to make rapid progress in tackling its profound jobs challenges. Iraq is facing a jobs crisis of unprecedented proportions.
... See More + It could foment a resurgence in violence unless the Government of Iraq makes credible and swift progress in job creation and reconstruction. To shape a longer-term vision, Iraq can look beyond its recent history of conflict, and to its past as a diversified economy & home of an educated workforce. However, in the short-term, neither private/ public sector hiring can create jobs at the desired scale without significant new policy action. The first-best solution for large-scale private sector job creation hinges on structural reforms that must begin now, but are achievable only in the medium to longer term. This paper provides a primer on options to deliver large-scale job creation in the short term, based on investments in construction, agriculture and agribusiness, small & medium enterprises, and vocational skills. Its aim is to outline workable steps for progress in a jobs crisis in a post-conflict situation. Because these steps focus on rapid impact at scale, rather than structural reform, they are less-than-ideal or second-best. A similar logic applies to financing options. Financing needs for jobs are large, and while business climate reforms are under way, first-best private investment in jobs will remain limited. Yet, the recent oil price hike offers the Government of Iraq a uniquely timely opportunity to make an investment in jobs.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134781 FEB 19, 2019
Bandiera,Luca; Chandra,Vandana; Fosque,Jasmine Crystal; Von Der Goltz,Jan; Peterburs,Teresa Anna Maria; Piffaretti,Nadia Fernanda; Saba,Joseph P.; Wheeler,Collette MariDisclosed
Somalia is highly data-deprived, leaving policy makers to operate in a statistical vacuum. To overcome this challenge, the World Bank implemented wave 2 of the Somalia High Frequency Survey to better understand livelihoods and vulnerabilities and, especially, to estimate national poverty indicators.
... See More + The specific context of insecurity and lack of statistical infrastructure in Somalia posed several challenges for implementing a household survey and measuring poverty. This paper outlines how these challenges were overcome in wave 2 of the Somali High Frequency Survey through methodological and technological adaptations in four areas. First, in the absence of a recent census, no exhaustive lists of census enumeration areas along with population estimates existed, creating challenges to derive a probability-based representative sample. Therefore, geospatial techniques and high-resolution imagery were used to model the spatial population distribution, build a probability-based population sampling frame, and generate enumeration areas are to overcome the lack of a recent population census. Second, although some areas remained completely inaccessible due to insecurity, even more accessible areas held potential risks to the safety of field staff and survey respondents, so that time spent in these areas has to be minimized. To address security concerns, the survey adapted logistical arrangements, sampling strategy using micro-listing, and questionnaire design to limit time on the ground based on the Rapid Consumption Methodology. Third, poverty in completely inaccessible areas had to be estimated by other means. Therefore, the Somali High Frequency Survey relies on correlates derived from satellite imagery and other geo-spatial data to estimate poverty in such areas. Finally, the nonstationary nature of the nomadic population required special sampling strategies.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134661 FEB 14, 2019
Real GDP growth slowed to 3.1 percent in January-November 2018 from 3.7 percent in the same period of 2017. This deceleration was the result of slower growth in both gold production and non-gold industry.
... See More + Export performance remains weak, largely on account of a sharp slowdown in gold exports, and in spite of trade opportunities within the Eurasian Economic Union. Attracting private investment remains a challenge. Recent developments point to limited progress in addressing structural issues over the past few years. While the Kyrgyz Republic was able to avoid an external shock driven recession in 2014-15, the economy remains vulnerable to external economic shocks given its high dependence on an undiversified export base, workers’ remittances, and foreign aid.The fiscal position has improved with a strong tax revenue performance and cuts to capital outlays. This has helped keeping public debt under control following a sharp increase in 2014-15. With inflation pressures low, the monetary policy stance remains relaxed. The National Bank reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent in May 2018 to support economic growth and has maintained a managed float of the exchange rate.Going forward, real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate slowly to 3.9 percent by 2020 supported by all the major sectors – industry, agriculture, construction and services. On the demand side, growth is projected to be driven by private consumption, investment and exports. The economy will continue to benefit from large remittance inflows and firming external demand. Strong remittances will support average consumption growth of around 3 percent in 2018–20. However, the current account deficit is projected to remain elevated at about 9 percent of GDP, reflecting structural constraints, the significant import content of public investment, and an indirect feed-through effect of remittances via imports. To rebuild fiscal buffers, the authorities are committed to reducing the deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2020.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134473 FEB 07, 2019
Real GDP growth slowed to 3.1 percent in January-November 2018 from 3.7 percent in the same period of 2017. This deceleration was the result of slower growth in both gold production and non-gold industry.
... See More + Export performance remains weak, largely on account of a sharp slowdown in gold exports, and in spite of trade opportunities within the Eurasian Economic Union. Attracting private investment remains a challenge. Recent developments point to limited progress in addressing structural issues over the past few years. While the Kyrgyz Republic was able to avoid an external shock driven recession in 2014-15, the economy remains vulnerable to external economic shocks given its high dependence on an undiversified export base, workers’ remittances, and foreign aid.The fiscal position has improved with a strong tax revenue performance and cuts to capital outlays. This has helped keeping public debt under control following a sharp increase in 2014-15. With inflation pressures low, the monetary policy stance remains relaxed. The National Bank reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent in May 2018 to support economic growth and has maintained a managed float of the exchange rate.Going forward, real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate slowly to 3.9 percent by 2020 supported by all the major sectors – industry, agriculture, construction and services. On the demand side, growth is projected to be driven by private consumption, investment and exports. The economy will continue to benefit from large remittance inflows and firming external demand. Strong remittances will support average consumption growth of around 3 percent in 2018–20. However, the current account deficit is projected to remain elevated at about 9 percent of GDP, reflecting structural constraints, the significant import content of public investment, and an indirect feed-through effect of remittances via imports. To rebuild fiscal buffers, the authorities are committed to reducing the deficit to 3 percent of GDP by 2020.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 134473 FEB 07, 2019
