Supporting jobs for youth in Niger means addressing difficult questions of the right level of ambition, of reaching the necessary scale, and of trade-offs with funding for poverty reduction.
... See More + Jobs policy for youth in Niger faces a difficult balancing act. It must be grounded in the reality that given the very modest starting point, economic opportunities for most Nigeriens are likely to remain limited in the medium term. At the same time, jobs policy needs to contend with the fact that young Nigeriens aspire for a different economic life than that lived by their elders. The challenge is thus to determine what kind of support is realistically feasible, and can provide a good-enough perspective for young Nigeriens. Secondly, policy must ask whether the actions envisaged can make a real difference at scale, given the very big needs for better jobs. Finally, in an environment where poverty remains pervasive, it is important to acknowledge that providing jobs support specifically for youth may mean forgoing other investments that may be more efficient in reducing poverty. To make informed choices on these questions, policy makers may need to understand clearly the effectiveness of different jobs support modalities, their appropriateness in addressing Niger’s challenges, and their cost efficiency. This study seeks to provide such an assessment. The purpose of this study is to review the effectiveness of projects that supported jobs for youth in Niger over the years 2007-2018. This report reviews the design and performance of 50 jobs projects carried out under the aegis of the Government of Niger over the years 2007-2018. These projects support individuals or communities; the review does not cover macro-level policies. The review has sought to assess (1) the level of investment and the number of beneficiaries reached; (2) the success of jobs programs according to existing evaluations; and (3) whether jobs programs have targeted the primary constraints to jobs for young Nigeriens and been designed in accordance with international evidence.
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World Bank economists expect economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to continue at a modest pace of about 1.5 to 3.5 percent during 2019-2021, with some laggards and a few emerging growth stars.
... See More + In late 2018, The World Bank called on the leaders of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to aim high. This report argues that the economics are clear and the evidence strong for such a link. While some MENA economies have maintained what this Update calls ‘unexplained’ current account balances for several years, fiscal policy has lost some of its historical role as a driver of the current account. The rest of this report is organized as follows. Chapter one summarizes the World Bank’s latest growth forecasts for MENA during 2019-2021. It also puts these projections in perspective by comparing the implied Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rates to the region’s performance since 2011 and relative to the typical growth rates of economies with similar levels of development. In turn, the chapter assesses the role of external factors as determinants of the region’s growth rates, arguing that the key risks are associated with a global growth slowdown that could cause declining growth in the demand for the region’s exports. Oil prices are unlikely to play a major role, although oil-price forecasts remain uncertain. From a long-term perspective, however, evidence from MNACE’s new model of potential growth driven by external factors suggests that external factors explain less than 30 percent of MENA’s (average) growth performance, although in some oil economies this share rises to 60 percent. Consequently, growth needs to come from within the region in the years ahead. Structural reforms are needed. Chapter two turns to the fundamental drivers of current account deficits around the world and in MENA. The international evidence from another new MNACE model indicates that both demographic changes and (relative) aggregate labor productivity are fundamental drivers of an economy’s current account balance. However, current forecasts of aggregate labor productivity growth and demographic changes are unlikely to help close excess current account deficits in affected MENA economies when the region’s capacity to recirculate savings across regional borders is being tested. Thus, structural reforms capable of raising aggregate labor productivity in MENA are urgent, along with the Digital Moonshot. Chapter three concludes by discussing an agenda of structural reforms in the context of the Moonshot challenge. It covers areas of economic policy associated with potential gains in growth and productivity, but in which MENA’s experience and current circumstances are unique from an international perspective. More specifically, the chapter discusses reforms in fiscal policies, trade related policies, social protection and labor markets, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in network industries. The time for structural reforms in MENA has arrived.
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Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is estimated to have decelerated from 2.5 percent in 2017 to 2.3 percent in 2018, below the rate of growth of the population for the fourth consecutive year, and 0.4 percentage point lower than projected in the October 2018 issue of Africa's Pulse.
... See More + This slowdown was more pronounced in the first half of 2018 and reflected weaker exports from the region's large oil exporters (Nigeria and Angola), due to falling oil production amid higher but volatile international crude oil prices. A deeper contraction in Sudanese economic activity, and a slowdown among non-resource-intensive countries, also played a role. Recent data point to a moderate strengthening of growth in the region. Growth is projected to pick up to 2.8 percent in 2019 and 3.3 percent in 2020. This gradual recovery is supported, on the demand side, by exports and private consumption and, on the supply side, by a rebound in agricultural production and an increase in mining production and services in some countries. The 2019 and 2020 growth forecasts are still 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, lower than predicted in the October issue of Africa's Pulse. This downward revision reflects slower growth in Nigeria and Angola, due to challenges in the oil sector, and subdued investment growth in South Africa, due to low business confidence. The external environment facing Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be challenging, as economic activity in advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) continues to decelerate, global industrial production declines, and global uncertainty related to trade disputes between the United States and China remains high. Although most industrial commodity prices recovered in the first three months of 2019, following sharp declines in late 2018, and the prices of metals and agricultural commodities are expected to stabilize, the oil market outlook remains highly uncertain and dependent on whether the production cuts among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners will be extended. Financing conditions have eased for EMDEs, as the U.S. Federal Reserve paused its policy rate increases.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 135861 APR 01, 2019
Continuity across political cycles is fundamental to human capital transformation. Country experiences across diverse contexts have shown that consistent prioritization of human capitalissues is both possible and effective.
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Greater coordination across government and among development partners, as well as investments in complementary sectors, can substantially advance the human capital agenda.
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