As the impact of the previous year's boost in oil production and exports dissipates, overall growth rate is expected to stabilize at around 4.2 percent, with a larger contribution from the non-oil sector.
... See More + Yet, continued high unemployment rate and an expected upward trend in prices are likely to put pressure on household in-comes and complicate the space to implement further economic reforms, particularly in the aftermath of widespread pro-tests in January 2018.
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The Iran Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It examines these economic developments and policies in a longer-term and global context, and assesses their implications for the outlook for the country.
... See More + Its coverage has ranged from the macroeconomy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Iran.
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The economy-wide positive impact of the JCPOA since January 2016 is proving to be slower than expected. Iran’s economy moderated to an estimated annual growth rate of 0.6 percent in 2015 ahead of the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
... See More + Following the removal of nuclear-related sanctions in January 2016, the growth rate is projected to average 4.5 percent in 2016–2018, up from a 0.5 percent average in 2013–2015. Thisprojected recovery which will rely on favorable external factors, is expected to be driven by (i) a significant increase in energy sector activity thanks to the removal of sanctions; (ii) increased inflows of foreigninvestment; and (iii) lower trade and financing costs that will help the non-oil sector contribute significantlyto overall growth and job creation. However, there are significant downsiderisks to Iran’s medium-term outlook. While the January 2016 lifting of the nuclear-related sanctions is expected to reveal the dynamism of the Iranian economy, a large structural reform agenda remains key in moving towards the ambitious growth target under the 6th five year development plan. The plan envisages the implementation of reforms of state-owned enterprises, the financial and banking sector, and a greater emphasis on the allocation and management of oil revenues to productive investments among the main priorities of the government during the five-year period.
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Following the partial lifting of nuclear-related sanctions in November 2013 under the interim Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), Iran's economy rebounded in 2014 and is estimated to have expanded by 0.5 percent in 2015.
... See More + A less accommodative monetary policy stance reduced inflationary pressures, with the Consumer Price Index falling to 8.9 percent in February 2016, from a peak of 45.1 percent in June 2013. Notwithstanding this positive development,the pace of job creation has remained weak and the unemployment rate rose to 11.7 percent in 2015, up from 10.6 percent in 2014. The fiscal balance of the central government also deteriorated, mostly due to low oil prices, from a deficit of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2014 to a deficit of 2.7 percent of GDP in 2015. Similarly, the current account surplus is estimated to have shrank from 3.8 percent of GDP in 2014 to 0.6 percent of GDP in 2015 due to falling oil receipts.
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Iran and the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council and Germany (P5 1) reached a deal on July 14, 2015 that limits Iranian nuclear activity in return for lifting all international sanctions that were placed on Iran.
... See More + This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief traces the economic effects of removing sanctions on Iran on the world oil market, on Iran’s trading partners, and on the Iranian economy. The most significant change will be Iran’s return to the oil market. Secondly, once sanctions and restrictions on financial transactions are relaxed, Iran’s trade, which had both declined in absolute terms and shifted away from Europe towards Asia and the Middle East, will expand. Thirdly, the Iranian economy, which was in recession for two years, will receive a major boost from increased oil revenues and lower trade costs. In addition, there are estimates that Iran holds about $107 billion worth of frozen assets overseas, of which an estimated $29 billion will be released immediately after sanctions removal. Finally, foreign direct investment, which had declined by billions of dollars following the tightening of sanctions in 2012, is expected to pick up. With the lifting of sanctions, the government of Iran has the opportunity to put in place a policy framework that will enable the economy to make maximum use of this windfall and put the economy on a path of sustained economic growth.
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This study provides an overview of current and future bioenergy developments, describes the impacts related to poverty and the environment, assesses the opportunities and challenges, and outlines how future World Bank activities related to bioenergy may be linked to poverty alleviation and environmental protection.
... See More + This study examines both solid biomass and liquid biofuels, identifying opportunities and challenges at the regional and country levels. The development of bioenergy presents both opportunities and challenges for economic development and the environment. It is likely to have significant impacts on the forest sector, directly, through the use of wood for energy production, and indirectly, as a result of changes in land use. The impact of bioenergy on poverty alleviation in developing countries will depend on the opportunities for agricultural development, including income and employment generation, the potential to increase poor peoples' access to improved types of bioenergy; and the effects on energy and food prices. Five main messages emerge from this report: solid biomass will continue to be a principal source of energy; developments in bioenergy will have major implications for land use; tradeoffs, including those related to poverty, equity, and the environment, must be evaluated when choosing a bioenergy system; there is considerable potential for making greater use of forestry and timber waste as a bioenergy feedstock; and the climate benefits of bioenergy development are uncertain and highly location and feedstock specific.
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Approaches to urban slums are a multimedia sourcebook that comprises 14 self-running audiovisual presentations and 18 video interviews. It is organized into four broad sections: adaptive approaches, proactive approaches, case profiles, and thematic interviews.
... See More + The sourcebook itself, which contains more than nine viewing hours of content on CD-ROM, does not exist in printed format. This guide provides an overview of the structure and content of the CD as well as approximate running times for the various sections. Approaches to urban slums builds on an extensive body of knowledge accumulated over 35 years from a wide range of sources. The 14 self-running audiovisual presentations include photographs, illustrations, maps, graphic animations, and aerial imagery, along with voice-over narration. The sourcebook's multimedia format facilitates the presentation of a highly complex subject by adding an audiovisual and spatial dimension to the descriptive and analytical discussion. The 18 video interviews provide access to the knowledge and opinions of urban stakeholders and experts on specific issues, and from various development perspectives, including development organizations, governments, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), community organizations, academia, and professional urban consulting.
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Agriculture is a vital development tool for achieving the Millennium Development Goal that calls for halving by 2015 the share of people suffering from extreme poverty and hunger.
... See More + That is the overall message of this year's World Development Report (WDR), the 30th in the series. Three out of every four poor people in developing countries live in rural areas, and most of them depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. This report provides guidance to governments and the international community on designing and implementing agriculture for development agendas that can make a difference in the lives of hundreds of millions of rural poor. The report highlights two major regional challenges. In much of Sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture is a strong option for spurring growth, overcoming poverty, and enhancing food security. Agricultural productivity growth is vital for stimulating growth in other parts of the economy. But accelerated growth requires a sharp productivity increase in smallholder farming combined with more effective support to the millions coping as subsistence farmers, many of them in remote areas. Recent improved performance holds promise, and this report identifies many emerging successes that can be scaled up. In Asia, overcoming widespread poverty requires confronting widening rural-urban income disparities. Asia's fast-growing economies remain home to over 600 million rural people living in extreme poverty, and despite massive rural-urban migration, rural poverty will remain dominant for several more decades. For this reason, the WDR focuses on ways to generate rural jobs by diversifying into labor intensive, high value agriculture linked to a dynamic rural, non-farm sector. In all regions, with rising land and water scarcity and the added pressures of a globalizing world, the future of agriculture is intrinsically tied to better stewardship of natural resources. With the right incentives and investments, agriculture's environmental footprint can be lightened and environmental services harnessed to protect watersheds and biodiversity.
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Development is often defined in terms of its economic aspects, as increased material well-being through ensured employment and income for all who want it.
... See More + But as knows anyone whose children go to schools of poor quality, have no clean water to drink, or face the threat of violence, development is also about having access to adequate social services. And development is ultimately about human development-the quality of material living, with wider choices and opportunities for people to realize their potential, plus the guarantee of those intangible qualities that characterize all more-developed societies: equality of treatment, freedom to choose, greater voice, and opportunities to participate in the process by which they are governed. Virtually all constitutions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region enshrine those values of development, and public governance is one of the mechanisms through which the values are secured for the people. From getting a driver's license in Casablanca to voting in municipal elections in Beirut, public governance relationships in the MENA region, as elsewhere, manifest themselves in almost every situation in which individuals and groups interact with the government. The challenge for governments and people throughout the region is to expand the interactions that are smooth and productive and to minimize the ones that are frustrating and wasteful-in a move toward 'good' governance. If public governance is the exercise of authority in the name of the people, good governance is exercising that authority in ways that respect the integrity, rights, and needs of everyone within the state.
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This issues highlights include news of IFC and other World Bank Group activities (including the launch of womens banking programs in Tanzania and Uganda), news reports from other resources (including the Cartier Womens Initiative Awards), upcoming events around the globe (including the Commonwealth Secretariat Women Ministers Affairs Meeting in Uganda), and links to useful resources (including the Lebanese League for Women in Business).
... See More + Our regular spotlight this issue falls on Julian Omalla, the owner of Delight Ltd, a booming Ugandan business that includes juice production, a bakery, farm, and a hostel business.
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This newsletter shares helpful news and information with women entrepreneurs around the world. The issue's highlights include news of IFC and World Bank Group activities (including the Global Banking Alliance for Women Annual Summit in Scotland in November), news reports from other sources (including the Nobel Peace Prize awarded for Microfinance to women and poverty alleviation), upcoming events around the globe (including the 2007 Women's Business Conference: Growing Leaders, Growing Businesses) and links to useful web sites (including the Gender and Environment book).
... See More + Our regular spotlight this issue falls on Dr. Victoria Kisyombe, Managing Director of Sero Lease and Finance, Ltd, who has been at the forefront of efforts to increase access to finance for women, especially widows, in Tanzania.
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The broad objective of this study is to analyze areas in which the climate change agenda intersects with multilateral trade obligations. The study identifies the key issues at stake, as well as possible actions -- at the national and multilateral levels -- that could help developing countries strengthen their capacities to respond to emerging conflicts between international trade and global climate regimes while taking advantage of new opportunities.
... See More + The study also attempts to respond to the need for more sector-specific analysis. Chapter two contributes to the literature by exploring the economic, environmental, and political rationale underlying the potential tension between implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and the existing World Trade Organization (WTO) principles. The chapter further identifies areas where priorities for proactive policy initiatives could minimize potential damage to both trade and global environmental regimes. Chapter three explores and identifies key barriers and opportunities to spur the transfer and diffusion of climate-friendly and clean-energy technologies in developing countries. It further identifies policies and institutional changes that could lead to the removal of barriers and increased market penetration of climate-friendly technology. Chapter four examines and builds on the different approaches that have emerged in the negotiations surrounding trade in environmental goods and services, and it proposes a framework for integrating climate objectives in the discussions. Chapter five presents the conclusions and provides a framework for integrating and streamlining the global environment within the global trading system.
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This issue's highlights include news of IFC and other World Bank Group activities (including Lars Thunell's call for more support to women entrepreneurs during the Women's Network lunch in September), news reports from other sources (including the UNIFEM report on the spread of domestic violence in Afghanistan), upcoming events around the globe (including the Global Banking Alliance for Women Annual Summit in November), and links to useful Web sites (including the World Bank's Energy and Gender Web site).
... See More + Our regular spotlight this issue falls on Dr. Mayada Baydas, a successful Lebanese-American businesswoman who has been working to expand women's access to microfinance and raise the profile of women entrepreneurs in the Middle East.
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This is the 7th issue of a newsletter designed to keep businesswomen in touch with key events, relevant research, and each other. This issue's highlights include news of World Bank Group activities (including the signing of the credit line for women entrepreneurs between IFC and Nigeria's Access Bank); news reports from other sources (including the "Imagining Ourselves" Online Exhibit), upcoming events around the globe (including the Global Banking Alliance for Women Conference in November) and links to useful web sites (including the OECD Gender, Institutions, and Development Database.)
... See More + The regular spotlight this issue falls on Fatima Wali, a Nigerian entrepreneur with an impressive record of breaking barriers for women in real estate, construction, and architecture.
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This is the sixth quarterly edition of a newsletter designed to keep businesswomen in touch with key events, relevant research, and each other.
... See More + This issue's highlights include news of IFC and World Bank Group activities (including the IFC partnership with the Center of Arab Women for Training and Research to promote research on women's entrepreneurship in the Middle East and North Africa region), news reports from other sources (including the OECD's pilot training project for women entrepreneurs in the Middle East), upcoming events around the globe (including the III World Bank Conference on Inequality, Politics and Power) and links to useful web sites (including the World's Women 2005: Progress in Statistics report). The regular spotlight this issue falls on the Honorable Joyce Banda, Minister of Gender, Child Welfare and Community Services in Malawi.
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This is the fifth quarterly newsletter designed to keep businesswomen in touch with key events, relevant research, and each other. This issue highlights e news of IFC and World Bank Group activities (including the launch of the GEM/Kauffman Foundation research study on women's access to finance), news reports from other sources (including the Second Economic Forum of the Arab Businesswomen Council), upcoming events around the globe (including the 5th Pan Afro Arab Congress of Business and Professional Women), and links to useful web sites (including Online Gender Equality Courses from the International Labour Organization).
... See More + The regular spotlight this issue falls on Dr. Sahar El Sallab, Vice Chairperson and Managing Director of Commercial International Bank (CIB) in Egypt. Dr. El-Sallab is a pioneer and key player in reaching out to women clients - an untapped customer segment - in financial services.
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This report provides an overiew of a publication of the same title that identifies the economic and social obstacles that women in the Middle East and North Africa face in seeking employment.
... See More + It also analyzes the potential economic benefits of engaging women in the workforce and suggests a plan of action that would help expand their role in the formal economy and public sphere. The book urges policymakers to pursue an agenda that will promote equity and offer women greater access to economic opportunities and security. It also acknowledges the central role of the family in the Middle East and North Africa as a common cultural asset, and calls for a supportive environment that will allow women to play multiple roles to support their families. Per capita income in the Middle East and North Africa could have grown substantially more had women had greater access to economic opportunity. This would have significantly enhanced the development and welfare of countries and families in the region, according to the authors of the Gender and Development in the Middle East and North Africa. The situation of women in the region presents a unique paradox: decades of heavy investments in social sectors have improved women's health and education; above all they have reduced illiteracy and brought down fertility rates. However, these have not translated to higher employment and empowerment for women. Less than one-third of women participate in the labor force, the lowest among all regions. This is due to persistent social and economic barriers that limit women's access to economic opportunities. In a global economy that values mental power, the region's new comparative advantage could well be its large, educated and, increasingly, female workforce. Economic growth relies increasingly on a country's quality of human resources, and women remain a largely untapped resource. Therefore, gender issues need to be viewed as central in policy design and implementation. Gender equality is not only for the sake of women. It promotes growth and aids the welfare of society in general.
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This report identifies the following as the fundamental challenges and changes that the Middle East and Africa must meet and make in order to improve living standards over the next two decades: Between eighty and one hundred million new jobs to be created by 2020.
... See More + Economic growth to be lifted from a sluggish 3.4 percent over the late 1990s to at least 6-7 percent a year. Governance to move from traditional autocracies to more inclusive governments, accountable to the people. Women to be more equitably included in economic activity and to harness the significant potential economic benefits from an increasingly educated and healthy female population. Public sectors to open the door to more private initiative. Economies dependent on oil and workers' remittances to diversify into manufacturing and services. Closed trading regimes to integrate with new trading partners in the region and the world. Impossible? No. Imperative? Yes. The political imperatives for such change and the stability of the old order are two opposing forces. The balance is shifting toward the need for reform as joblessness and slow growth make the old order increasingly costly and unsustainable.
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