This working paper draws from the joint World Bank and World Meteorological Organization / Global Water Partnership Integrated Drought Management Program (IDMP) work stream on benefits of action and costs of inaction (BACI) for drought preparedness and mitigation.
... See More + It suggests a methodological framework for assessment of BACI as a tool to support a shift in drought policy and programs from crisis management to a risk management approach. The framework should be systematic enough to allow for comparability across countries and contexts, with the option of being tailored to the context in which it is being used. In proposing an initial framework for BACI analysis, the authors use the ten-step methodology for developing drought strategies that was created by Wilhite et al. and subsequently codified by IDMP to help organize the assessment. In this way, the authors embed the BACI assessment in the overall development of a drought risk management strategy. This document is a first approach to guide those responsible for drought management and BACI assessments to ask the right questions at the different stages. Key next steps are to experiment with this draft approach by applying it in multiple contexts to test its usability and to develop more case study examples to showcase how this process can be undertaken and how it can be advantageous to stimulate positive action.
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The economy is recovering slowly from drought, but Somalia continues to face significant challenges.The Somali economy rebounded in 2018 from the 2016/17 drought.Public finances continued to strengthen in 2018.Credit to the private sector grew rapidly in 2018, and Somalia’s financial sector supervisory capacity continued to strengthen.The current account deficit declined slightly.The medium-term outlook is for a moderate increase in GDP growth.This outlook is subject to significant risks and depends on continued policy reforms.
... See More + Key risks to medium-term growth prospects include security concerns, weather and climatic shocks, and political uncertainty. The authorities have been developing a track record of reform in areas of revenue mobilization, expenditure control, and financial sector regulation. Important challenges remain, however.A slowdown in the reform momentum would not only undermine medium-term economic growth, but also could delay the normalization of Somalia’s relations with international financial institutions and access to critical external resources needed for development.Finally, Somalia needs to accelerate economic growth and reorient government spending towards public investment, particularly investment to boost human capital.
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In March 2018, Uganda's Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) formally requested technical assistance from the World Bank Group (WBG) to conduct a technical and diagnostic review of the Uganda Agricultural Insurance Scheme (UAIS) with the objective of providing recommendations to enhance the scalability and sustainability of the scheme going forward.
... See More + This technical report covers the rapid assessment of agriculture finance and its recommendations, the findings of the situation and gap analysis of the UAIS, and where appropriate, presents the WBG’s recommendations for strengthening the scheme; it also includes a proposal for two additional insurance programs, one for crop and one for livestock, targeted at small-scale farmers. Section one is comprised of four chapters that provide important background information: chapter one provides context for the study; chapter two describes the agricultural sector in Uganda, including the constraints and risk exposure faced by small-scale farmers; chapter three offers an overview of the agriculture finance landscape; and chapter four describes past and present agricultural insurance initiatives, including the UAIS. Section two includes the remaining chapters that present findings and make recommendations for scaling up agriculture insurance in Uganda and making programs sustainable. Specifically, chapter five describes in detail the situation and gap analysis carried out for UAIS insurance products, operating systems and procedures, and underwriting results, and it identifies possible ways to strengthen the scheme for the public-private partnership (PPP) stakeholders to consider. Chapter six presents options for the development of large-scale Area Yield Index Insurance (AYII) to complement the existing UAIS crop insurance products and programs, and it includes fiscal costings for GoU to consider. Chapter seven presents options for the development of large-scale Satellite-Based Pasture Drought Index Insurance (SPDII) for open-grazed livestock in semi-arid regions of Uganda, most notably the Karamoja subregion.
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As a key pillar of the Ugandan economy, the agriculture sector is a critical driver of economic growth and poverty alleviation. Uganda's agricultural sector is dominated by smallholders with low levels of productivity.
... See More + The agriculture sector is highly exposed to co-variant risks, which include weather, biological, infrastructure (post-harvest loss), price, and market risks. This plethora of risks suppresses appetite for investment in the sector. Despite the sector's contribution to the economy, farmers' access to finance remains a major constraint. Recognizing agriculture finance's critical role in the agricultural transformation agenda, the government of Uganda (GoU) is supporting several initiatives to unlock agricultural finance. To manage the financial impacts of production shocks, the GoU seeks to use agricultural insurance to derisk rural lending and expand access to rural credit for smallholders. In partnership with private insurance companies, the GoU launched the Uganda Agriculture Insurance Scheme (UAIS) as a five-year pilot in July 2016. The objectives of the scheme are to ensure that Ugandan farmers are protected against the effects of agriculture risks, especially production risks; to increase farmers' access to credit; and to make crops, livestock, and aquaculture insurance affordable to smallholder producers. The UAIS offers a range of crop, livestock, poultry, and aquaculture insurance coverage to Ugandan farmers, and is promoted by the GoU through the provision of premium subsidies. The objective of the review is to provide recommendations for enhancing the scalability and sustainability of the GoU's approach to promoting agriculture insurance in Uganda.
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Afghanistan faced severe economic headwinds in 2018, with the economy growing by an estimated 1.8 percent. Slow growth was driven by two major factors.
... See More + Firstly, severe drought had a strong negative impact on agricultural production. Agricultural growth slowed to 0.8 percent as low snowfall during late 2017 and early 2018 led to the loss of grain crops and livestock productivity. Secondly, business and investor confidence deteriorated significantly in the context of elevated uncertainty around: i) the level and duration of international security assistance; ii) the outcome of upcoming presidential elections (now delayed until September); iii) prospects of continued or worsening election-related violence (civilian deaths reached their highest level since 2001); and iv) ongoing peace negotiations with the Taliban. Real GDP growth is expected to have accelerated during the first half of 2019, mainly driven by the easing of drought conditions and improved agricultural production. Intensifying political uncertainties, however, are expected to have continued to dampen private sector confidence and investment. Poverty is estimated to have increased and deepened. The rate of economic growth substantially lagged population growth, leading to declining per capita incomes. The drought negatively impacted livelihoods of many of the 82 percent of the poor living in rural areas, including those reliant on poppy cultivation (poppy production declined by 30 percent). Reflecting widespread hardship, drought-induced displacement reached record levels of 298,582 individuals, mainly to urban areas in adjacent provinces.
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The development objectives of the Water And Sanitation Service Improvement Project are to: (a) increase access to reliable, affordable and sustainable water supply and sanitation services; and (b) to improve the water and wastewater services in the areas served by AWSB, LVNWSB and CWSB.
... See More + The purpose of this reallocation is to align the loan expenditure categories with the procurement plans of the three implementing agencies. By reallocating resources between the existing expenditure categories, the Project will be able to align the resources optimally and fully utilize the credit. The National Treasury submitted a formal request for reallocation between disbursement categories in USD currency on November 27, 2018. AWSB submitted the reallocation in SDR to the Bank. Important to note that SDR amounts for Categories 7 and 8 were modified to reflect actual amounts given that they were slightly higher than the proposed amount by AWSB, and Category six was slightly modified so that the total proposed reallocation is equal to the current allocation (see following table). The reallocation table was agreed with AWSB.
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