The Western Balkan countries, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia, achieved strong growth and poverty reduction since the start of the transition to market economies.
... See More + Despite progress, today the six Western Balkan countries remain among the poorest in Europe, overtaken by the more successful neighboring countries in terms of convergence to EU standards of living. In summary, to converge faster to EU living standards, the Western Balkan countries need to continue to pursue a ‘three-pronged’ effort by implementing in parallel prudent macroeconomic policies, bold structural reforms, and measures to advance economic integration. Macroeconomic and fiscal stability, accompanied by decisive structural reforms are two necessary conditions to promote a sustainable and strong growth model, one that is based on private sector growth, investment, and higher exports. Structural reforms are key to unlocking the benefits of regional integration including productivity gains, investments, and job creation, all of which will support convergence to EU living standards. Indeed, economic integration is linked to productivity, as productivity is inherent in achieving economies of scale. And the speed and depth of reforms that rekindle income convergence will help advance the pace of economic integration.
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This paper proposes a methodology to approximate individual income distribution dynamics using only time series data on aggregate moments of the income distribution.
... See More + Under the assumption that individual incomes follow a lognormal autoregressive process, this paper shows that the evolution over time of the mean and standard deviation of log income across individuals provides sufficient information to place upper and lower bounds on the degree of mobility in the income distribution. The paper demonstrates that these bounds are reasonably informative, using the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics where the panel structure of the data allows us to compare measures of mobility directly estimated from the micro data with approximations based only on aggregate data. Bounds on mobility are estimated for a large cross-section of countries, using data on aggregate moments of the income distribution available in the World Wealth and Income Database and the World Bank's PovcalNet database. The estimated bounds on mobility imply that conventional anonymous growth rates of the bottom 40 percent (top 10 percent) that do not account for mobility substantially understate (overstate) the expected growth performance of those initially in the bottom 40 percent (top 10 percent).
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8123 JUN 27, 2017
A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries.
... See More + This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity of production) as a method to explore a country's relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and unpredictable. This classification is used to create a selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme), defining future growth trajectories for similar countries, and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund. The analysis finds that production structure is a good long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8117 JUN 26, 2017
Solomon Islands is a small, remote archipelago in the South Pacific that faces a fairly unique set of development challenges. Solomon Islands is now at a critical juncture in its development trajectory.
... See More + Neither the economic geography nor the present political economy of Solomon Islands is particularly conducive to the establishment of state institutions capable of managing upcoming socioeconomic change. Because of the weaknesses of state institutions, and consistent with Solom on Islands’ historical experience, a variety of non-state and international actors will need to play important roles in managing upcoming and potentially risky socioeconomic change. This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Solomon Islands identifies key challenges and opportunities for achieving inclusive and sustainable growth, to accelerate progress toward the World Bank Group’s twin goals of reducing extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity.
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The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ukraine covers the 5 years from FY17 to FY21. The CPF is aligned with the objectives of the country’s development strategy as outlined in the Government Program and Action Plan adopted in April 2017 and is based on the findings and recommendations of the World Bank Group (WBG) Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Ukraine.
... See More + The objective of the WBG CPF in Ukraine during FY17-FY21 is to promote sustained and inclusive economic recovery after nearly a decade of stagnation and two years of economic crisis. The focus areas of the CPF broadly parallel the pathways identified in the SCD, but are further prioritized. The engagement will be highly selective and based on the intersection of the Government’s development agenda, the development challenges and approaches outlined in the SCD, and the comparative advantage and capacity of WBG to deliver. The resulting CPF focus areas are : (i) Better Governance, Anticorruption, and Citizen Engagement; (ii) Making Markets Work; (iii) Fiscal and Financial Sustainability; and (iv) Efficient, Effective, and Inclusive Service Delivery.
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Country Assistance Strategy Document 114516 JUN 20, 2017
The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ukraine covers the 5 years from FY17 to FY21. The CPF is aligned with the objectives of the country’s development strategy as outlined in the Government Program and Action Plan adopted in April 2017 and is based on the findings and recommendations of the World Bank Group (WBG) Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Ukraine.
... See More + The objective of the WBG CPF in Ukraine during FY17-FY21 is to promote sustained and inclusive economic recovery after nearly a decade of stagnation and two years of economic crisis. The focus areas of the CPF broadly parallel the pathways identified in the SCD, but are further prioritized. The engagement will be highly selective and based on the intersection of the Government’s development agenda, the development challenges and approaches outlined in the SCD, and the comparative advantage and capacity of WBG to deliver. The resulting CPF focus areas are : (i) Better Governance, Anticorruption, and Citizen Engagement; (ii) Making Markets Work; (iii) Fiscal and Financial Sustainability; and (iv) Efficient, Effective, and Inclusive Service Delivery.
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Country Assistance Strategy Document 114516 JUN 20, 2017
The World Bank Monthly Operational Summary (MOS) reports on the status of projects in the World Bank's pipeline from the time the operation is identified to the signing of the Loan, Credit, or Grant Agreement.
... See More + It is a detailed accounting of the projects included in the country lending programs that are actively being prepared for implementation. The lending programs reflect the Bank's strategy for each member country as set out in the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) presented to the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank. General information about business opportunities under Bank loans, credits, and grants may be obtained from the World Bank's Procurement Policy and Services Group's website at http://www.worldbank.org/en/projectsoperations/products-and-services/procurementprojects-programs.
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The first part of the Economic Update analyzes recent macroeconomic trends and presents an assessment of the country's short- and medium-term outlook.
... See More + The Special Focus Section discusses the state of the country's energy sector, including issues surrounding its financial viability and fiscal implications, as well as the social implications of reform scenarios.
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Malaysia’s economic growth expanded strongly in first quarter (1Q) 2017. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for 2017 is expected to accelerate to 4.9 percent, slightly above the government’s current projection range of 4.3 to 4.8 percent.
... See More + The current account surplus has declined (1Q 2017: 1.6 percent of GDP; 4Q 2016: 3.8 percent of GDP) due to strong import growth. Gross imports growth, mainly of capital and intermediate goods, outpaced the significant increase in gross exports, resulting in a lower goods surplus. The current account surplus is projected to narrow further to 1.6 percent of GDP in 2017. Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative and supportive for growth. The higher growth trajectory projected for 2017 opens up room to accelerate reduction in the fiscal deficit. Risks to the economy in the short-term stem mainly from external developments. Focus on implementing further structural reforms to raise the level of potential growth should continue. This include looking into measures to raise the level of productivity, encourage innovation, invest in new skills, leverage digital technologies, and continue ongoing efforts to improve efficiency of public service delivery.
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This document presents the World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Framework (CPF) withthe Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) for 2017-2021.
... See More + The WBG CPF aims at supportingLasting Accessible Opportunities for all including sustained green growth, improved access to humanand infrastructure services, and opportunities for all. The previous Country Partnership Strategy (CPS)2012-2016 built a solid foundation and a strong relationship with the Government of Lao PDR (GOL). The CPF supports the GOL's 8th National Socio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) for2016-2020. The 8th NSEDP introduces policies intended to put Lao PDR on a path to reduce povertyand promote shared prosperity in a sustainable manner, based on green growth principles. Lao PDR'sdevelopment has advanced greatly in the last two decades, although significant challenges remain.Incomes have risen, poverty has declined, access to several key public services has improved and asa result Lao PDR met a number of its Millennium Development Goals. With GDP growth averaging8 percent per year since 2000, Lao PDR today is a lower-middle income country with a GNI percapita of around US$1,740 in 2015. However, growth has been driven mainly by exploitation of itsabundant natural resources and has been less inclusive, resilient, and sustainable than for regional comparators. Widespread malnutrition and overall low consumption levels highlight the challenges that remain for the basic well-being of the country.
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Country Assistance Strategy Document 116234 JUN 01, 2017
This document presents the World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Framework (CPF) withthe Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) for 2017-2021.
... See More + The WBG CPF aims at supportingLasting Accessible Opportunities for all including sustained green growth, improved access to humanand infrastructure services, and opportunities for all. The previous Country Partnership Strategy (CPS)2012-2016 built a solid foundation and a strong relationship with the Government of Lao PDR (GOL). The CPF supports the GOL's 8th National Socio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) for2016-2020. The 8th NSEDP introduces policies intended to put Lao PDR on a path to reduce povertyand promote shared prosperity in a sustainable manner, based on green growth principles. Lao PDR'sdevelopment has advanced greatly in the last two decades, although significant challenges remain.Incomes have risen, poverty has declined, access to several key public services has improved and asa result Lao PDR met a number of its Millennium Development Goals. With GDP growth averaging8 percent per year since 2000, Lao PDR today is a lower-middle income country with a GNI percapita of around US$1,740 in 2015. However, growth has been driven mainly by exploitation of itsabundant natural resources and has been less inclusive, resilient, and sustainable than for regional comparators. Widespread malnutrition and overall low consumption levels highlight the challenges that remain for the basic well-being of the country.
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Country Assistance Strategy Document 116234 JUN 01, 2017
Ukraine is a lower middle income country with a GNI per capita of 2,640 US dollars in 2015. Leading up to the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) period, poverty had been declining, with the share of the population below the 5 US dollars poverty line decreasing from 46 percent in 2002 to 3.2 percent in 2013, and a GINI index lower than those of peer countries in the ECA region in 2014.
... See More + To support the government program, the CPS was designed around two focus areas: (i) support for building relations with citizens by improving public services and finance; and (ii) support for building relations with business by improving policy effectiveness and economic competitiveness. The CPS addressed the country’s major development challenges, including institutional weaknesses, major reform bottlenecks, poor governance and high levels of corruption. At about mid-term of the CPS period, there were significant changes in the political and economic context. The new Government that took over in December 2014 had to urgently address macroeconomic imbalances, but also included structural reform priorities and transparency and anti-corruption measures in its program. In response, the WBG supported major policy and institutional reforms using development policy financing (DPF) as the main instrument. The main reforms supported were in the areas of public sector governance, business environment, utility subsidies, social protection, and the banking system. IEG concurs with the following lessons in the CLR: greater WBG impact when addressing policy and institutional issues; importance of ASA in achieving development results; maintenance of continuity in country strategies to sustain reforms; effectiveness of implementation readiness filter; importance of close coordination with development partners to avoid duplication and create synergies; and stricter application of risk management system.
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This paper examines the causal relationship between energy efficiency and economic growth based on panel data for 56 high- and middle-income countries from 1978 to 2012.
... See More + Using a panel vector autoregression approach, the study finds evidence of a long-run Granger causality from economic growth to lower energy intensity for all countries. The study also finds evidence of long-run bidirectional causality between lower energy intensity and higher economic growth for middle-income countries. This finding suggests that beyond climate benefits, middle-income countries may also earn an extra growth dividend from energy efficiency measures.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8077 MAY 30, 2017
The development objective of Kaduna State Economic Transformation Program-for-Results Project for Nigeria is to improve the business enabling environment and strengthen fiscal management and accountability in Kaduna State.
... See More + This operation is fully aligned with the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for the Federal Republic of Nigeria for FY14–FY17. The CPS has three objectives: (a) promoting diversified growth and job creation by reforming the power sector, enhancing agricultural productivity, and increasing access to finance; (b) improving the quality and efficiency of social service delivery at the state level to promote social inclusion; and (c) strengthening governance and public sector management, with gender equity and conflict sensitivity as essential elements of governance. This Program-for-Results (PforR) focuses on increasing the number of jobs in the modern private sector and boosting the productivity of traditional economic sectors. Another important and complementary focus of the PforR is to support Kaduna State to increase its fiscal space and enhance expenditure effectiveness to boost investments in human capital and physical assets sustainably.
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The Malawi Economic Monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic and structural development issues in Malawi. This edition of the MEM was published in May 2017.
... See More + It follows on from the four previous editions of the MEM, and is part of an ongoing series, with future editions to follow twice per year. The aim of the publication is to foster better-informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi faces in its endeavors to achieve high rates of stable, inclusive and sustainable economic growth. The MEM consists of two parts: Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses in greater depth on a special, selected topic relevant to Malawi's development prospects.
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Economic Updates and Modeling 115253 MAY 25, 2017
Record,Richard James Lowden; Kandoole,Priscilla Flaness; Choi,Narae; Stylianou,Eleni; Kalemba,Sunganani VioletDisclosed
Progress in child mortality reduction and education attainment varies widely among oil-rich countries. This paper investigates the causes of this variation using an empirical model that departs from the available literature in allowing for explicit measurement of the impact of initial levels of child mortality and education attainment.
... See More + The results show that the following four variables are statistically significant and robust across various specifications: public spending on health and education, economic growth rates, caloric sufficiency, and initial levels of child mortality and education attainment. Further analysis was conducted to determine the economic significance of these factors by examining the contribution of each to the fitted growth rates (as a deviation from the sample mean) of child mortality and secondary school enrollment for 14 oil-rich developing countries. The analysis reveals some interesting patterns. First, initial conditions dominate the results for education attainment: the initial level of secondary school enrollment in 1980 is the dominant factor in explaining subsequent improvements in 10 of the 14 oil-rich developing countries for which calculations could be performed. Second, policy factors worked in different ways in different countries. A high degree of caloric sufficiency enabled countries in the Middle East and North Africa to reduce child mortality faster, while low levels of caloric sufficiency prevented African oil-rich countries, such as Angola and the Republic of Congo, from making progress. Third, levels of public spending were not economically critical for gains in school enrollment, although they were important in a few country cases for improvements in child mortality rates.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8066 MAY 17, 2017
Vietnam is a lower middle income country with a GNI per capita income of USD 1,990 in 2015. During the review period, the country continued to experience rapid GDP growth averaging 5.8 percent, compared to 4.3 percent for the East Asia and Pacific region as a whole.
... See More + This is the first WBG Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Vietnam after it had become a lower middle-income country in 2009. The CPS was well aligned with the government’s objectives and stated development goals. It supported the implementation of the government’s Socio- Economic Development Strategy (SEDS, 2011-20) as this was operationalized in the Socio-Economic Development Plan (2011-15). The SEDS focused on structural reform, environmental sustainability, and the then emerging issues of macro-economic stability, with three core areas: promoting human resources and skills development, improving market institutions, and infrastructure development. Macroeconomic stability, and poverty was increasingly being concentrated in ethnic minority communities. In line with these concerns, the WBG through the CPS and the Progress Learning Review (PLR) focused on partnering with Vietnam to help the country achieve success as a middle income country with three focus areas: Competitiveness, Sustainability, and Opportunity. The CLR identifies a number of lessons, with which IEG mostly agrees. Most importantly: (i) Achieving selectivity requires strong engagement with the government. (ii) Comprehensive and programmatic engagement enhances the impact of engagement. (iii) Cross-sectoral, holistic approaches should be adopted and implemented more frequently. (iv) Expectations must be carefully calibrated when it comes to structural or transformational reform areas – also noting the importance of understanding the political economy aspects. (v) The WBG can use more effectively its convening power. IEG adds three key lessons from this CPS: First, in Vietnam going forward there is room for greater concentration of resources, including more emphasis on selectivity and with fewer but on average larger lending operations. The selectivity of the knowledge program could probably also be enhanced. Second, it is also important to pay more attention to the design of the results framework, including the balance between objectives and their under pinning outcomes and indicators, and for program additionally to be clearer, beyond the expected results of individual operations. Third, updating of the results framework at the PLR is an essential element of proactive program management and would need to be used effectively, including the continued monitoring and reporting of results throughout the CPS period.
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The development objective of the Economic Transformation Project for Nigeria is to improve the business environment and promote private investments in the State of Kaduna in the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
... See More + Some of the negative impacts and mitigation measures include: (1) to include appropriate measures for early identification and screening of potentially important biodiversity and cultural resource areas; (2) to support and promote the conservation, maintenance, and rehabilitation of natural habitats; avoids the significant conversion or degradation of critical natural habitats, and if avoiding the significant conversion of natural habitats is not technically feasible, include measures to mitigate or offset impacts or program activities; (3) to take into account potential adverse impacts on physical cultural property and, as warranted, provide adequate measures to avoid, minimize, or mitigate such effects; (4) promote the use of integrated pest management practices to manage or reduce pests or disease vectors; and provide training for workers involved in the production, procurement, storage, transport, use, and disposal of hazardous chemicals in accordance with international guidelines and conventions; and (5) to include measures to avoid, minimize, or mitigate community, individual, and worker risks when program activities are located within areas prone to natural hazards such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or other severe weather or climate events.
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This World Bank Group (WBG) Guinea-Bissau country partnership framework (CPF) will be the first full country strategy since 1997. The development of the CPF has benefited from the findings of the 2016 systematic country diagnostic (SCD) and the 2015 fragility assessment, and addresses the main lessons learned from the completion and learning review (CLR) at annex 2.
... See More + It also reflects feedback from consultations with the government, private sector, civil society, and development partners. This CPF supports the national development plan, Terra Ranka (fresh start), which was developed by the government elected in 2014. The CPF presents a selective and flexible WBG program. The focus areas of the CPF program will be on increased access to quality basic services and expanded economic opportunities and enhanced resilience to shocks.
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Country Assistance Strategy Document 114815 MAY 15, 2017
