Misreporting is a well-known challenge for researchers in social sciences. This issue is especially prevalent if incentives for misreporting exist, for example, to claim certain benefits or hide illegal behavior.
... See More + Internally displaced persons are a population that is highly dependent on aid receipts and, thus, have strong incentives to underreport consumption levels. To improve reporting for such vulnerable populations, this paper proposes to integrate “honesty primes” into the consumption module of the questionnaire. Honesty primes are unconscious stimuli that induce a certain cognition or behavior. The study assesses the effectiveness of a bundle of randomly assigned primes within a sample of internally displaced persons in South Sudan. In line with the main hypothesis, positive and significant effects arise for low consumption quantiles, especially consumption quantities that are more susceptible to manipulation. Hence, honesty primes can act as a cost-effective tool to induce more accurate reporting. Further research is needed to identify more effective primes for the respective population of interest.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 129598 AUG 01, 2018
This paper implements a machine learning approach to estimate intra-generational economic mobility using cross-sectional data. A Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (Lasso) procedure is applied to explore poverty dynamics and household-level welfare growth in the absence of panel data sets that follow individuals over time.
... See More + The method is validated by sampling repeated cross-sections of actual panel data from Peru. In general, the approach performs well at estimating intra-generational poverty transitions; most of the mobility estimates fall within the 95 percent confidence intervals of poverty mobility from the actual panel data. The validation also confirms that the Lasso regularization procedure performs well at estimating household-level welfare growth between two years. Overall, the results are sufficiently encouraging to estimate economic mobility in settings where panel data are not available or, if they are, to improve panel data when they suffer from serious non-random attrition problems.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 129600 AUG 01, 2018
Fair Progress? Economic Mobility across Generations around the World looks at an issue that has gotten much attention in the developed world, but with, for the first time, new data and analysis covering most of the world, including developing economies.
... See More + The analysis examines whether those born in poverty or in prosperity are destined to remain in the same economic circumstances into which they were born and looks back over a half a century at whether children’s lives are better or worse than their parents’ in different parts of the world. It suggests local, national, and global actions and policies that can help break the cycle of poverty, paving the way for the next generation to realize their potential and improve their lives.
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Publication 126847 MAY 30, 2018
Narayan,Ambar; Van Der Weide,Roy; Cojocaru,Alexandru; Lakner,Christoph; Redaelli,Silvia; Mahler,Daniel Gerszon; Nichanametla Ramasubbaiah,Rakesh Gupta; Thewissen,Stefan HubertDisclosed
This study explores the short-run transitions between poverty, vulnerability, and middle class, using synthetic panels constructed from multiple rounds of Colombia's Integrated Household Survey (in Spanish Gran Encuesta Integrada de Hogares).
... See More + The paper reports results from two approaches to define a vulnerability line: the first one employs a nonparametric and parsimonious model, while the second utilizes a fully parametric regression model with covariates. The estimation results suggest a range of between $8 to $13 per day per person in 2005 purchasing power parity dollars as the vulnerability line. Using an average daily vulnerability line of $10 per day per person, subsequent estimates on welfare dynamics suggest that, during the past decade, 20 percent of the Colombian population experienced downward mobility, and 24 percent experienced upward mobility. Furthermore, upward mobility increases with higher education levels and is lower for female-headed households.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8441 MAY 14, 2018
In fragile states and areas beset by insecurity and conflict, the time available for a face-to-face interview is typically limited. That prevents administering the lengthy household consumption expenditure surveys used for measuring poverty.
... See More + This paper presents a new approach to obtain unbiased estimates of poverty when the time to conduct interviews is a binding constraint. The finite list of consumption recall items is partitioned selectively into a core module and algorithmically into non overlapping optional modules. Each household is systematically assigned the core module and randomly assigned one of the optional modules. Multiple imputation techniques are then used to estimate total household consumption. Based on ex post simulations, the approach is demonstrated to yield reliable estimates of per capita consumption and poverty using data from a regular household budget survey collected in Hargeisa, Somaliland. The approach is then applied to a survey conducted in Mogadishu where interview time could not exceed 60 minutes.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 129590 MAY 01, 2018
There is an increasingly stronger demand for more frequent and accurate poverty estimates, despite the oftentimes unavailable household consumption data.
... See More + This paper offers a review of alternative imputation methods that have been employed to provide poverty estimates in such contexts. These range from estimates on a nonmonetary basis, estimates for specific project targeting or tracking trends at the national level, to estimates at a more disaggregated level, as well as estimates of poverty dynamics. The paper provides a concise and accessible synthesis, which serves as an introduction to the literature. The focus is on intuition and practical insights that highlight the nuanced differences between the existing methods rather than technical aspects.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8403 APR 11, 2018
Given existing physical and human capital assets, Brazil could almost triple its income per capita if it managed to achieve the United States efficiency level.
... See More + Cross-country evidence confirms that upgrading productivity instead of accumulating more physical capital and increasing the size of the workforce is the main driver of income differences across countries and of sustainable per capita income growth. Cross-country evidence supports the inclusive benefits of productivity growth. Within-country evidence for Brazil and other emerging economies also supports the inclusive benefits of policies that foster productivity growth. New evidence from Brazil indicates that tariff liberalization benefited households across the income distribution and was largely pro-poor, with net welfare gains. Further trade opening should benefit all households and remain inclusive, offering opportunities for financing redistributive policies. One of the main learnings from Brazil’s experience is that insufficient geographical labor mobility has impeded the reallocation process triggered by productivity policies, distributing unevenly the costs and benefits of productivity growth across regions. An additional important lesson learned from Brazil experience is that a strong output expansion from productivity upgrading, especially for less-skilled intensive industries, is essential for policies to result in more and better paid jobs for less well-off people. Finally, the administration of current passive labor market and social programs could be enhanced to ensure that income support is provided to less well-off individuals unable to adjust to the new market conditions and directly contribute to productivity growth.
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Vietnam has achieved remarkable success in reducing poverty while controlling inequality. The country’s broad-based growth reflects the government’s focus on developing labor-intensive export sectors while investing heavily in human capital that saw the country exceed its peers.
... See More + However, gains have been concentrated among the Kinh and Hoa ethnic majority, while minority groups have not only continued to experience poverty rates far above the national average, but have seen slower progress too. This report analyzes recent trends in poverty and shared prosperity. It presents the findings of the 2016 Vietnam household and living standards survey (VHLSS), highlighting important progress and identifying new challenges. The report is organized into two main sections. The first section reviews Vietnam’s progress in reducing poverty and promoting share prosperity. It describes updated poverty and shared prosperity trends, the nature of economic mobility, and the drivers of poverty reduction. The second section – titled leaving no one behind is more forward-looking, starting by identifying major constraints faced by the poor, then proceeding to lay out challenges for moving the poverty and shared prosperity agenda going forward.
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Vietnam has achieved remarkable success in reducing poverty while controlling inequality. The country’s broad-based growth reflects the government’s focus on developing labor-intensive export sectors while investing heavily in human capital that saw the country exceed its peers.
... See More + However, gains have been concentrated among the Kinh and Hoa ethnic majority, while minority groups have not only continued to experience poverty rates far above the national average, but have seen slower progress too. This report analyzes recent trends in poverty and shared prosperity. It presents the findings of the 2016 Vietnam household and living standards survey (VHLSS), highlighting important progress and identifying new challenges. The report is organized into two main sections. The first section reviews Vietnam’s progress in reducing poverty and promoting share prosperity. It describes updated poverty and shared prosperity trends, the nature of economic mobility, and the drivers of poverty reduction. The second section – titled leaving no one behind is more forward-looking, starting by identifying major constraints faced by the poor, then proceeding to lay out challenges for moving the poverty and shared prosperity agenda going forward.
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This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of economic and social mobility in countries in the South Caucasus by complementing available household survey data in each of the countries in the subregion with other sources, such as the Life in Transition Survey (2016).
... See More + The first part of the paper, concentrated on intragenerational mobility, finds that despite progress made in reducing poverty over the past decade, there appears to be a significant amount of churning around the poverty line. Moreover, in Georgia and Armenia, roughly one in eight individuals lived in a state of chronic poverty in 2015, and in the case of Georgia, chronic poverty is not an exclusive phenomenon for rural areas. In addition, although social programs have provided a lifeline for the chronic poor, the ability to tap into labor market opportunities has been the ticket out of poverty. The second part of the paper expands the analysis to intergenerational or social mobility. The main findings are that (1) a higher proportion of the population in this subregion considers their pre-transition family life and the lives of their parents when they were of similar age as appropriate benchmarks to evaluate their current economic situations in comparison with the other transition countries, and (2) over half of the Georgian and Armenian population disagreed with the statement that asked their views on having a better in life than their parents, aligning with the ‘growing but unhappy’ trend that has been reported for the region.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 125622 JAN 01, 2018
This public-private infrastructure advisory facility (PPIAF) - funded report aims to discuss and disseminate information on how Islamic finance has been applied in infrastructure projects through public-private partnership (PPP) schemes, what the structural challenges and solutions are, and what can be done to deepen and maximize the use of Islamic finance for this purpose.
... See More + This report has two broad dimensions. The first is to enhance the understanding of Islamic finance building blocks as they relate to financing infrastructure PPP projects, and the second, and perhaps less well understood, is to explore how the building blocks of Islamic finance can fit within a PPP context. This report paves the way for providers of Islamic finance capital to become partners in infrastructure development and thus contribute to its overall global financing pool.
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The development objective of Strengthening Social Protection for Rwanda is to improve the effectiveness of Rwanda’s social protection system, notably the flagship Vision 2020 Umurenge Program (VUP), for targeted vulnerable groups.
... See More + This project has three components. 1) The first component, Improving coverage, adequacy and effectiveness of the Vision 2020 Umurenge Program (VUP) cash transfers, aims to cover, through IDA funds, 40 percent of the costs of the VUP safety nets: transfers; PW wage and non‐wage costs, including capital costs of cPW; and associated administrative costs. 2) The second component, Enhancing access to human capital and economic inclusion services, aims to improve the contribution of the social protection sector to boost human capital creation and economic inclusion services, with a focus on combating chronic malnutrition and improving child development goals, as well as improving livelihoods by promoting skills development, resilience, and access to services. 3) The third component, Delivery systems, policy and program management, aims to build local and national government’s capacity to implement Components 1 and 2, as well as to improve the larger social protection system in Rwanda.
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Despite significant challenges, Sri Lanka's economic performance remained broadly satisfactory in the first half of 2017. The corrective policy measures taken in the monetary and fiscal fronts have led to gradual stabilization.
... See More + The construction sector's rapid recovery supported by a strong rebound in investment was partially able to mitigate the impact of inclement weather conditions on the real sector. External buffers strengthened thanks to foreign exchange purchases and improved capital flows. Inflation has risen since the second half of 2016 on account of drought and changes to the VAT Act. Authorities pursued the economic reform agenda presented in the government policy statements, albeit at a slower pace, owing to the difficulties faced in a complex political environment and institutional constraints on policy implementation. Parliament passed a new Inland Revenue Law in September 2017, which marks a key milestone towards sustainable revenue-led fiscal consolidation.
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Mozambique and the World Bank have maintained continuous relations since the country joined the institution in 1984. Over these years, the World Bank has provided development assistance to Mozambique in accordance with the country needs and priorities, from economic stabilization in the 1980s, to post-war reconstruction in the early 1990s, to a broader and comprehensive assistance starting in the 2000’s.
... See More + Today, Mozambique’s overarching long-term development challenge is to translate its economic growth into poverty reduction by stimulating a more diversified and inclusive growth. In a shorter term, the country needs to address the challenges posed by the previously undisclosed loans, which led to a rapid deterioration of its macroeconomic stability, by restoring investors and development partners’ confidence. International Development Association (IDA), also known as the World Bank’s Fund for the Poorest provides the bulk of the financial support to Mozambique among the five institutions comprising the World Bank Group. IDA work in Mozambique spans development assistance to natural resources management, forest and wildlife conservation, sustainable tourism, agriculture, including irrigation, among others. This IDA at Work brochure highlights IDA results in Mozambique addressing the root causes of poverty in Africa and in Mozambique.
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The program development objective of Fourth Economic Reform Development Policy Operation Project for Kiribati is to: (i) strengthen public financial management; and (ii) improve the environment for inclusive growth.
... See More + These two components correspond to the two pillars of the operation. The first pillar is supported through strengthening the management of public assets and liabilities, and improving public procurement. The second pillar is supported through improving oversight of joint ventures in the fisheries industry, improving the quality and expanding the coverage of essential public utilities, and facilitating competition and universal service provision in the telecommunications industry. The operation is aligned with the priorities identified in the Regional Partnership Framework (RPF). It is complemented by a number of other Bank engagements in contributing to achieve the objectives of the RPF. The World Bank has collaborated closely with the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) in the preparation of this operation. In keeping with the established practice in the region, this operation is based on a joint policy matrix agreed between the Government of Kiribati (GoK) and this group of development partners. This approach improves the feasibility of reforms by having the GoK and key development partners focusing on a small set of reforms, and coordinating the provision of their technical assistance in support of these reforms. This approach also reduces the transaction costs on the GoK, by harmonizing a number of the engagement and procedural aspects of budget support operations. With respect to the actions in the joint matrix, the World Bank provides technical assistance on the Revenue Equalization Reserve Fund (RERF) and telecommunications reform areas, the ADB provides assistance on the contingent liabilities and procurement reform areas as well as on broader SOE monitoring and reform, and MFAT provides assistance on the fisheries reform areas. The Bank, ADB, MFAT and DFAT also work together to provide assistance to Public Utilities Board (PUB). In addition, the Bank collaborates closely with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and with the Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre (PFTAC) on macro-fiscal policy and Public Financial Management (PFM) issues.
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This paper proposes a non-parametric adaptation of a recently developed parametric technique to produce point estimates of intra-generational economic mobility in the absence of panel data sets that follow individuals over time.
... See More + The method predicts past individual income or consumption using time-invariant observable characteristics, which allows the estimation of mobility into and out of poverty, as well as household-level income or consumption growth, from cross-sectional data. The paper validates this method by sampling repeated cross-sections out of actual panel data sets from three countries in the Latin America region and comparing the technique with mobility from panels. Overall, the method performs well in the three settings; with few exceptions, all estimates fall within the 95 percent confidence intervals of the panel mobility. The quality of the estimates does not depend in general on the sophistication level of the underlying welfare model's specifications. The results are encouraging even for those specifications that include few time-invariant variables as regressors.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8220 OCT 16, 2017
This is a statement by H. E. Johann N. Schneider-Ammann, Minister and Head of the Federal Department for Economic Affairs, Education and Research, at the 96th meeting of the Development Committee held on October 14, 2017.
... See More + He spoke about his Constituency which was celebrating its 25th anniversary. As members of the Bank and as a Constituency, he looked back on many achievements and an excellent cooperation over the last 25 years, knowing that many challenges still lay ahead. He highlighted on the need for a reliable and effective multilateral development system that supports countries in addressing their most pressing and complex development challenges, and how the World Bank Group is the international institution with a truly global character. He insisted on how the Bank needs to take a leading role in developing a stringent and disciplined approach to blending finance, including engaging with donors, to avoid the risk of a race to the bottom. He welcomed the initiative of the Bank to develop a Human Capital Project. He concluded by saying that the Bank with its profound knowledge of human development on one hand, and economic growth on the other, is in the best position to deliver this new set of indicators and to put it to productive use for its members.
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This is a statement by H. E. Henrique Meirelles, Minister of Finance, at the 96th meeting of the Development Committee held on October 14, 2017.
... See More + He spoke about how the World Bank Group has successfully served its members for decades, even in the face of rapidly changing landscapes, in which both cyclical and structural transformations demand adaptable strategies. He commended on the World Bank Group (WBG) Climate Change Action Plan. He appreciated the additional efforts of WBG to promote integration and regional cooperation are welcome to foster growth across countries. He recognized many initiatives that were taken to advance the Forward Look implementation, has shown relevant progress being made since the last Spring Meetings. He mentioned about how the World Bank has been providing support to strengthen the Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism frameworks in many countries. He spoke about how the WBG has successfully mobilized and disbursed significant resources in a relatively short period when dealing with intense crises.
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