We revisit the relevance of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA)against growth performance, with attention to possible biases arising from qualitative andquantitative changes in the CPIA methodology.
... See More + The CPIA, introduced in the late 1970s, had aseries of extensive revisions in the late 1980s and the early 1990s, placing more emphasis oninstitutional capacity and social policies. We reexamine a claim by previous studies that the CPIAis weakly relevant for economic performance, by running cross-country growth regressions with apanel dataset covering 146 countries between 1995 and 2015, a period over which the CPIA iscomparable. By addressing the possible biases arising from the methodological changes, we showthat the CPIA is a good predictor for future growth.
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China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) includes major infrastructure investment projects – roads, ports, railways – that aim to improve connectivity along a number of transport corridors spanning 71 countries.
... See More + In this paper we find that notwithstanding the large scale of the initiative, relatively little systematic data exists on the practices being followed by the different, primarily Chinese, entities that finance BRI-related contracts and how firms are being selected to execute projects. The limited available data however indicate that Chinese companies account for the majority of BRI-procurement, even in light of their high share of total infrastructure projects in developing countries. We discuss the limited publicly available evidence on the procurement of BRI projects and specific dimensions of the institutional features pertaining to public procurement regimes of BRI countries, including China, both as embedded in domestic regulations and in international agreements that countries may be part of. Finally, we discuss the efforts that BRI countries can take -individually or as part of an international agreement- to improve procurement practices for BRI projects.
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Bureaucratic complexity in citizen-government interactions can be an obstacle to accessing basic services and exercising civil rights. This paper presents a new methodology to collect contributor-based data on the regulatory framework and compliance burden of six key citizen-government interactions: (i) civil registration and identification, (ii) voting, (iii) paying taxes, (iv) access to health care, (v) access to education, and (vi) access to utilities.
... See More + The methodology was tested in Chile, Ghana, India, and Vietnam, and it provided an overview of the legal and regulatory frameworks. In addition, the study offers some interesting observations: (i) two of the four economies moved toward including digital components to civil registration and identification systems, making it easier to register births/deaths and obtain an identification document; (ii) three of the four economies require a specific voter ID to cast a ballot, which can discourage citizens from engaging in elections; (iii) patients accessing certain services at primary health care facilities may experience longer waits for treatment than those seeking access to the same services in hospitals; and (iv) a student's ability to access quality education can be limited by school placement based on residential address in two of the four economies. The lessons learned suggest that future studies should use survey data collection to investigate the practical experience of citizens beyond procedures and legal requirements. In addition, focusing on fewer areas and including a larger set of countries could generate greater variability and more robust conclusions.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8610 OCT 10, 2018
Yemen has been experiencing political instability since 2011 and open conflict since late 2014. As a result, the social and institutional fabric in Yemen has witnessed increasing disintegration.
... See More + Although official statistics are no longer available, anecdotal evidence suggests that Yemen's GDP contracted by an accumulated 40 percent since the end of 2014. The conflict has caused widespread disruption of economic activities and has dramatically diminished employment and income opportunities in the private and public sector. In the current conflict situation and the given political uncertainty, it is not possible to provide a detailed, sound economic outlook. However, Yemen's medium-term outlook will depend ultimately on whether an end to the on-going conflict can be found and the rebuilding of the Yemen economy and social fabric is facilitated. In the short-term, there is no substitute for external financial support for initial macroeconomic stabilization given the interdependency of external financing, the fiscal expenditure program, and early stabilization. Finally, if violence can be contained before the end of 2018, GDP is predicted to begin its recovery in 2019 (i.e., via the gradual resumption of hydrocarbon export). However, little of the economic recovery is estimated to translate into a meaningful reduction of the high poverty rate in Yemen (approximately 80 percent in 2018).
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Dominica continues to be at high risk of debt distress. However, hurricane Maria in September 2017 caused severe social hardship and deterioration of fiscal and external balances, weakening sustainability.
... See More + In addition, Dominica’s debt carrying capacity as measured by the three-year CPIA average declined. Thus, setting public and publicly guaranteed total and external debt on a declining path would require prudent and efficient fiscal policies that safeguard fiscal space for social relief and reconstruction investment. A fiscal consolidation plan is needed after recovery takes hold to sustain reconstruction investment. Donor grant mobilization is key to minimize the debt burden. Main risks to the debt sustainability outlook include sudden stop in citizenship-by-investment (CBI) program revenues, financial instability from weakened balance sheets, and recurrent natural disasters.
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Togo’s risk of external debt distress continues to be moderate with heightened overall risk of debt distress—unchanged from the previous Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) published in April 2017.
... See More + Alternative scenarios and stress tests suggest, however, that external public debt could accumulate rapidly, pushing Togo above the external debt-distress threshold for the present value (PV) of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt-to-GDP. Togo’s domestic public debt burden remains high and reflects among others, persistently high deficits, materialized contingent liabilities and arrears accumulation. Baseline projections show that Togo’s PV of total PPG debt (external plus domestic) -to-GDP ratio will reach the 38 percent benchmark by 2025, down from 73.1 percent in 2017 -with the bulk constituting domestic debt obligations. This analysis highlights the need for sustained fiscal consolidation, improved debt management, and macroeconomic policies to reduce the level of public debt to prudent levels over the medium term.
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The objective of the Tamil Nadu Sustainable Urban Development Project for India is to demonstrate improved urban management practices and improve urban services delivery in participating Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) in a financially sustainable manner.
... See More + Some of the negative impacts and mitigation measures include: (i) all clearance required during construction will be ensured and made available before start of work; (ii) adequate measures will be taken and checked to control the Baseline parameters of Air, Water and Noise pollution; (iii) the contractor will identify site for temporary use of land for construction sites or storage of construction materials, etc.; (iv) where loose soil is met with, shoring and strutting will be provided to avoid collapse of soil; (v) a suitable site identified for safe disposal, in low lying areas within the project area as approved by the Engineer in charge and to other low lying area in consultation with local body; (vi) site identified for safe storage and handling of chemicals and other hazardous materials provided with proper display of requirements and marking as protected area; (vii) the contractor will provide garbage bins in the camps and ensure that these are regularly emptied and disposed off in a hygienic manner as per the Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Plan approved by the Engineer; (viii) maintenance of vehicles, equipment and machinery will be regular and up to the satisfaction of the Engineer to keep noise levels at the minimum; (ix) Control valves would be provided in the inlet of all booster stations, ULB sumps and service reservoirs to control the flow; and (x) the backwash water is collected in the recycle sump and the solids allowed settling during one hour detention period and will be recirculated into the treatment unit, besides this will also be reused for green belt.
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