Little research currently exists on a vulnerability line that distinguishes the poor population from the population that is not poor but that still faces significant risk of falling back into poverty.
... See More + This paper attempts to fill this gap by proposing vulnerability lines that can be straightforwardly estimated with panel or cross-sectional household survey data, in rich- and poor-country settings. These vulnerability lines offer a means to broaden traditional poverty analysis and can also assist with the identification of the middle class or resilient population groups. Empirical illustrations are provided using panel data from the United States (Panel Study of Income Dynamics) and Vietnam (Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey) for the period 2004-2008 and cross-sectional data from India (National Sample Survey) for the period 2004-2009. The estimation results indicate that in Vietnam and India during this time period, the population living in poverty and the middle class have been falling and expanding, respectively, while the opposite has been occurring in the United States.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6944 JUN 01, 2014
The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States exposed the use of remittance channels for financing terrorism. Acting on this, the international community, through the financial action task force (FATF), issued first international standard to require the licensing or registration of money transfer businesses (MTBs) and to make them subject to anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML and CFT) requirements.
... See More + This study aims to assess current practices, draw lessons learned, and assist policy makers in designing an effective regulatory and supervisory framework governing remittances that not only meets AML and CFT international standards, but also supports a country's overall financial inclusion objectives. The study's assessments and recommendations are based on extensive research and analysis, including primary survey data received from 26 remittance sending and receiving countries. The report follows on the 15 bilateral remittance corridor analyses (BRCAs) undertaken during 2004-10 by the financial market integrity (FMI) unit of the World Bank and three BRCAs undertaken by the Government of the Netherlands using the methodology developed by the FMI unit of the World Bank. The study is organized as follows: chapter one analyzes the various business models for remittance services currently in existence, and the various types of agent networks of MTBs available for the distribution of remittances. Chapter two elaborates on AML and CFT risks related to products, market structure, regulation, and supervision; discusses how innovative products and services for remittance transfers such as mobile money and internet-based money transfer may pose new threats and risks; and includes a discussion on the appropriate risk mitigation techniques so as not to constrain the remittance market from developing and innovating. Chapter three describes the various regulatory frameworks that MTBs encounter around the world, including different types of laws and regulations affecting them, sheds light on how AML and CFT requirements can be implemented, and provides a comprehensive analysis of customer due diligence (CDD) requirements as a crucial element to effectively fight money laundering and the financing of terrorism. Chapter four discusses licensing and registration regimes for, and appropriate regulatory approaches toward, MTBs; examines the conditions that must be fulfilled in order to apply for licensing or registration. Chapter five discusses the various AML and CFT supervisory models and identifies potential strengths and weaknesses in each of these models; elaborates on the supervisory practices of competent authorities, along with the challenges faced by MTBs in implementing relevant supervisory requirements; and discusses the risk-based approach (RBA) to supervision of MTBs. Finally, chapter six focuses on establishing an effective AML and CFT regime while supporting broader financial inclusion and highlights key policy recommendations underlined by a RBA that encourages flexible implementation of the AML and CFT framework.
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The trend toward ever greater urbanization continues unabated across the globe. According to the United Nations, by 2025 closes to 5 billion people will live in urban areas.
... See More + Many cities, especially in the developing world, are set to explode in size. Over the next decade and a half, Lagos is expected to increase its population 50 percent, to nearly 16 million. Naturally, there is an active debate on whether restricting the growth of megacities is desirable and whether doing so can make residents of those cities and their countries better off. When analyzing whether megacities have become too large, policy makers often analyze a single city in depth. But no city is an island: improving urban infrastructure in one city might attract migrants, and a negative shock in one location can be mitigated because people can move to another. Considering the general equilibrium effects of any such urban policy is thus key. That is, when deciding whether to make medium-size cities more attractive, policy makers need to understand how cities of all sizes will be affected. The second section briefly summarizes the theoretical framework and discusses which data are needed. The third section implements the methodology for the benchmark case of the United States. The fourth section does the same for China and Mexico and compares the findings. And the last section concludes. A technical online appendix guides the reader through a practical, step-by-step, discussion of how to do the analysis.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6872 MAY 01, 2014
Urbanization deserves urgent attention from policy makers, academics, entrepreneurs, and social reformers of all stripes. Nothing else will create as many opportunities for social and economic progress.
... See More + The urbanization project began roughly 1,000 years after the transition from the Pleistocene to the milder and more stable Holocene interglacial. In 2010, the urban population in developing countries stood at 2.5 billion. The developing world can accommodate the urban population growth and declining urban density in many ways. The most important citywide projects -- successes like New York and Shenzhen -- show even more clearly how influential human intention can be. The developing world can accommodate the urban population growth and declining urban density in many ways. One is to have a threefold increase in the average population of its existing cities and a six fold increase in their average built-out area. Another, which will leave the built-out area of existing cities unchanged, will be to develop 625 new cities of 10 million people -- 500 new cities to accommodate the net increase in the urban population and another 125 to accommodate the 1.25 billion people who will have to leave existing cities as average density falls by half.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6874 MAY 01, 2014
Using newly collected national and sub-national data, and historical case studies, this paper argues that differences in innovative capacity, captured by the density of engineers at the dawn of the Second Industrial Revolution, are important to explaining present income differences, and, in particular, the poor performance of Latin America relative to North America.
... See More + This remains the case after controlling for literacy, other higher order human capital, such as lawyers, as well as demand side elements that might be confounded with engineering. The analysis then finds that agglomeration, certain geographical fundamentals, and extractive institutions such as slavery affect innovative capacity. However, a large effect associated with being a Spanish colony remains suggesting important inherited factors.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6814 MAR 01, 2014
The note is based on original work by Marcelino Madrigal and Steven Stoft, "Transmission Expansion for Renewable Energy Scale-Up: Emerging Lessons and Recommendations".
... See More + Texas leads the United States with 9,528 MW of installed wind power capacity, a level exceeded by only four countries. The state needed more infrastructure to transmit electricity generated from renewable sources, but the regulator could not approve transmission expansion projects in the absence of financially committed generators. To solve the problem, Texas devised a planning process that quickly connects energy systems to the transmission system. The system is based on the designation of competitive renewable energy zones.
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This economy profile presents the Doing Business indicators for Canada. In a series of annual reports, Doing Business assesses regulations affecting domestic firms in 189 economies and ranks the economies in 10 areas of business regulation, such as starting a business, resolving insolvency and trading across borders.
... See More + This year's report data cover regulations measured from June 2012 through May 2013. The report is the 11th edition of the Doing Business series.
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This economy profile presents the Doing Business indicators for San Marino. In a series of annual reports, Doing Business assesses regulations affecting domestic firms in 189 economies and ranks the economies in 10 areas of business regulation, such as starting a business, resolving insolvency and trading across borders.
... See More + This year's report data cover regulations measured from June 2012 through May 2013. The report is the 11th edition of the Doing Business series.
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This economy profile presents the Doing Business indicators for United States. In a series of annual reports, Doing Business assesses regulations affecting domestic firms in 189 economies and ranks the economies in 10 areas of business regulation, such as starting a business, resolving insolvency and trading across borders.
... See More + This year's report data cover regulations measured from June 2012 through May 2013. The report is the 11th edition of the Doing Business series.
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This regional profile presents the Doing Business indicators for economies in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). It also shows the regional average, the best performance globally for each indicator and data for the following comparator regions: East Asia and the Pacific, European Union, Latin America, OECD High Income and South Asia.
... See More + The data in this report are current as of June 1, 2013, except for the paying taxes indicators, which cover the period January to December 2012. Regional Doing Business reports capture differences in business regulations and their enforcement across countries in a single region. They provide data on the ease of doing business, rank each location, and recommend reforms to improve performance in each of the indicator areas. The report sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency and employing workers. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 189 economies, from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, over time. The data set covers 47 economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, 33 in Latin America and the Caribbean, 25 in East Asia and the Pacific, 25 in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 20 in the Middle East and North Africa and 8 in South Asia, as well as 31 OECD high-income economies. The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes and identify what reforms have worked, where and why.
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This regional profile presents the Doing Business indicators for economies in OECD High Income. It also shows the regional average, the best performance globally for each indicator and data for the following comparator regions: European Union, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, South Asia, and Latin America.
... See More + The data in this report are current as of June 1, 2013, except for the paying taxes indicators, which cover the period January to December 2012. Regional Doing Business reports capture differences in business regulations and their enforcement across countries in a single region. They provide data on the ease of doing business, rank each location, and recommend reforms to improve performance in each of the indicator areas. The report sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency and employing workers. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 189 economies, from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, over time. The data set covers 47 economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, 33 in Latin America and the Caribbean, 25 in East Asia and the Pacific, 25 in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 20 in the Middle East and North Africa and 8 in South Asia, as well as 31 OECD high-income economies. The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes and identify what reforms have worked, where and why.
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This paper investigates the adverse effects of oil price volatility on economic activity and the extent to which countries can hedge against such effects by using renewable energy.
... See More + By considering the Realized Volatility of oil prices, rather than following the standard approach of considering oil price shocks in levels, the effects of factor price uncertainty on economic activity are analyzed. Sample countries represent developed and developing, oil importing and exporting and service/industry-based economies (United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, and Malaysia) and thus complement the standard literature's analysis of Western OECD countries. In a vector auto-regressive setting, Granger causality tests, impulse response functions, and variance decompositions show that oil price volatility has more-adverse effects in all sample countries than oil price shocks alone can explain. The paper finds that the sensitivity to oil price volatility varies widely across countries and discusses various factors which may determine the level of sensitivity (such as sectoral composition and the energy mix). This implies that the standard approach of solely considering net oil importer-exporter status is not sufficient. Simulations of volatility shocks in hypothetical energy mixes (with increased renewable shares) illustrate the potential economic benefits resulting from efforts to disconnect the macroeconomy from volatile commodity markets. It is concluded that expanding renewable energy can in principle reduce an economy's vulnerability to oil price volatility, but a country-specific analysis would be necessary to identify concrete policy measures. Overall, the paper provides an additional rationale for reducing exposure and vulnerability to oil price volatility for the sake of economic growth.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6603 SEP 01, 2013
This study provides empirical evidence on the strengthening of the impact of house prices on the US macroeconomy. The stability of the house prices macro-link is tested in a small-dimensional vector autoregressive model over the last fifty years.
... See More + The estimated break-points are used to split the sample into different segments and a multivariate time series analysis is performed within subsamples. The paper finds a robust structural break in the mid-1980s. In addition, time series analysis across segments provides evidence that the effect of house prices, not only on private consumption, but also on economic activity, has intensified since the mid-1980s.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6549 JUL 01, 2013
This paper introduces a computationally efficient method for estimating structural parameters of dynamic discrete choice models with large choice sets.
... See More + The method is based on Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) regression, which is widely used in the international trade and migration literature to estimate the gravity equation. Unlike most of the existing methods in the literature, it does not require strong parametric assumptions on agents' expectations, thus it can accommodate macroeconomic and policy shocks. The regression requires count data as opposed to choice probabilities; therefore it can handle sparse decision transition matrices caused by small sample sizes. As an example application, the paper estimates sectoral worker mobility in the United States.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6480 JUN 01, 2013
This paper explores how the expansion of labor-intensive manufacturing exports resulting from the United States-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement in 2001 translated into wages of skilled and unskilled workers and the skill premium in Vietnam through the channel of labor demand.
... See More + In order to isolate the impacts of trade shock from the effects of other market-oriented reforms, a strategy of exploiting the regional variation in difference in exposure to trade is employed. Using the data on panel individuals from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys of 2002 and 2004, and addressing the issue of endogeneity, the results confirm the existence of a Stolper-Samuelson type effect. That is, those provinces more exposed to the increase in exports experienced relatively larger wage growth for unskilled workers and a decline of (or a smaller increase in) the relative wages of skilled and unskilled workers. During the period 2000-2004, the skill premium increased for Vietnam's economy as a whole in the sample of panel individuals. Thus, the Stolper-Samuelson type effect appears to have mitigated but did not outweigh the impacts of other factors that contributed to the rise in the skill premium.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6419 APR 01, 2013
The World Bank's president has been an American by tradition. Yet little work has explored the consequences for this connection in influencing visions of development in the organization across time.
... See More + This paper uses evidence from archives, congressional hearing records, and memoirs and histories of World Bank presidents to investigate United States-World Bank relations and development policy during four presidencies--Eugene Meyer, Eugene Black, Robert McNamara, and James Wolfensohn. The author argues that at times the political arrangements had the effect of pushing the Bank toward greater institutional independence from the United States, particularly when partisanship in American politics rose and new United States presidential administrations came into office with the World Bank president's term holding over from before. At other times, United States-World Bank connections pulled the Bank into foreign policy issues in the United States that the Bank might not otherwise have addressed when advocates pressed their case on Capitol Hill.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6377 MAR 01, 2013
Least developed countries rely on preferential market access. Proof of sufficient transformation has to be provided to customs in importing countries by meeting Rules of Origin requirements to benefit from these preferences.
... See More + These Rules of Origin have turned out to be complicated and burdensome for exporters in the least developed countries. Starting around 2001, under the United States Africa Growth Opportunity Act, 22 African countries exporting apparel to the United States can use fabric from any origin (single transformation) and still meet the criterion for preferential access (the so-called Special Rule), while the European Union continued to require yarn to be woven into fabric and then made into apparel in the same country (double transformation). This paper uses panel estimates over 1996-2004 to exploit this quasi-experimental change in the design of preferences. The paper estimates that this simplification contributed to an increase in export volume of about 168 percent for the top seven beneficiaries or approximately four times as much as the 44 percent growth effect from the initial preference access under the Africa Growth Opportunity Act without the single transformation. This change in design also mattered for diversity in apparel exports, as the number of export varieties grew more rapidly under the Africa Growth Opportunity Act special regime.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6357 FEB 01, 2013
The commonwealth of Massachusetts, one of the 50 states in the United States of America, has achieved near universal health coverage of its 6.6 million residents after a landmark reform made health insurance mandatory for all residents in 2006.
... See More + The reform was only the latest step in a sequence of national and state programs that successively enrolled more people in private and public health insurance programs over a period of four decades. Massachusetts passed chapter 58 of the acts of 2006, the Massachusetts health care reform law, on April 12, 2006, and over a five-year period, more than 400,000 previously uninsured residents were provided with comprehensive health benefits. As of 2012, 98.2 percent of the population is covered, including 99.8 percent of children. Massachusetts has the highest rate of health insurance coverage of any state in the country. The program has widespread popular support, and it served as a model for the design of President Obama's affordable care act, which established a plan for mandatory coverage on a national basis for the first time in the United States. This report will briefly describe the reform and its context, but will focus for purposes of simplicity on the operational details of the mass health program of health insurance for the poor. A discussion of the administration and management of Mass Health can offer a glimpse into the inner workings of all other insurance plans in the commonwealth. Mass health, private insurance, and Commonwealth Care share similar tools, controls, and strategies.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 75007 JAN 01, 2013
The 14 indicators describe a country's macro-fiscal environment to identify constraints or opportunities for health systems financing.
... See More + For each indicator two aspects are important: level and trend. A country with a 10 percent unemployment rate that has fallen from 15 percent may be in better shape than one with an 8 percent unemployment rate that has risen from 4 percent. It is also important to benchmark to group averages of countries in the same Word Bank (WB) region (EAS, ECS, LCN, MEA, NAC, SAS, or SSF) and income group (HIC, upper MIC, lower MIC, or LIC).
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This report gives 14 indicators that describe a country's macro fiscal environment to identify constraints or opportunities for health systems financing.
... See More + A country with a 10 percent unemployment rate that has fallen from 15 percent may be in better shape than one with an 8 percent unemployment rate that has risen from 4 percent. It is also important to benchmark to group averages of countries in the same World Bank (WB) region and income group- high income country (HIC), upper middle income country (MIC), lower MIC, or low income country (LIC).
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