This Migration and Development Brief reports global trends in migration and remittance flows, as well as developments related to the Global Compact on Migration (GCM), and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators for volume of remittances as percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) (SDG indicator 17.3.2), reducing remittance costs (SDG indicator 10.c.1) and recruitment costs (SDG indicator 10.7.1).
... See More + This Brief has a special focus on transit migration. Addressing the adverse drivers of transit migration will involve policy efforts to create economic opportunities and reduce conflict and fragility in migrants’ countries of origin. Opening more legal channels for migration to destination countries would also help reduce transit migration. Collaborative efforts among the origin country, the transit country, and the final destination country to control transit migration, however, should not violate free (intra-regional) movement of people under regional protocols. Respecting the human rights of transit migrants remain a policy priority. In situations where transit migrants stay on for protracted periods, there may be a need to provide access to education and health services, as well as to labor markets. For their part, origin countries need to empower embassies in transit countries to assist their nationals. Multilateral agencies can help the global community through the collection of data and also analytical and technical assistance in addressing the drivers of transit migration. They can also act as honest brokers to facilitate collaboration among the concerned parties. Multilateral development banks can also provide innovative financing solutions to transit countries.
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This migration and development brief reports global trends in migration and remittance flows, major policy developments, and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators for reducing remittance costs and recruitment costs.
... See More + The brief reports new data on recruitment costs, a potential indicator for the SDG of promoting safe and regular migration. The special focus of the brief is return migration, a challenging issue around the world amid a rise in asylum seekers and undocumented migrants.
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This Migration and Development Brief provides an update on worldwide remittance flows and the global migration crisis. It focuses on two Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators: reducing remittance costs, and reducing recruitment costs for low-skilled migrants.
... See More + In September 2016, the United Nations General Assembly Summit on “Large Movements of Refugees and Migrants” committed to develop two global compacts: a Global Compact on Refugees, and a Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration. Negotiations on both compacts are expected to continue through 2017, with final adoption expected at a United Nations international conference in 2018. The Brief reports on progress in the preparation of the global compacts, with an expanded discussion of the Global Compact on Migration.
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The growth rate of remittances to developing countries is estimated to have fallen from 3.2 percent in 2014 to 0.4 percent in 2015. The slowdown in grow is largely due to economic weakness in the major remittance-sending countries.
... See More + Weak oil prices and currencies in many remittance-source countries, especially Russia, further depressed remittance flows in U.S. dollar terms. Remittances to developing countries are expected to rise by around 4 percent a year in 2016–17. A major downside risk to this forecast is the potential for a decline in outward remittances from Gulf Cooperation Council countries due to continuing weakness in the price of oil. Also, the continued widening of black market premia and imposition of capital controls could limit formal remittance inflows in some countries. The global average cost of sending 200 dollars was about 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, down slightly from the previous quarter and 0.6 percentage points below the end of 2014. Sub-Saharan Africa, with an average cost of 9.5 percent, remains the highest-cost region. The recently approved SDGs include ensuring safe, orderly, and regular migration; limiting exploitation and abuse of migrants; reducing the costs of recruitment and remittances; and improving data. The conflict in Syria has increased the number of refugees in the neighboring countries of Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, and more recently in Europe. In Europe, a lack of consensus on burden sharing has prompted many countries to tighten border controls within the EU, threatening the Schengen free-mobility arrangement for EU nationals. Of particular concern is the fact that some 36 percent of recent refugees in Europe are children. While the spotlight is on Europe, new refugee movements are also taking place in other parts of the world. The diaspora has assisted people affected by disasters by sending more money home. However, remittances may also fall if the disaster disrupts the money-transfer infrastructure. Finally, while climate change is likely to result in increased frequency and severity of weather-related disasters, the international community currently lacks a legal and institutional framework to cope with the resulting migration from the affected areas.
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Using newly available census data, the stock of international migrants is estimated at 247 million in 2013, significantly larger than the previous estimate of 232 million, and is expected to surpass 250 million in 2015.
... See More + Migrants’ remittances to developing countries are estimated to have reached $436 billion in 2014, a 4.4 percent increase over the 2013 level. All developing regions recorded positive growth except Europe and Central Asia (ECA), where remittance flows contracted due to the deterioration of the Russian economy and the depreciation of the ruble. In 2015, however, the growth of remittance flows to developing countries is expected to moderate sharply to 0.9 percent to $440 billion, led by a 12.7 percent decline in ECA and slowdown in East Asia and the Pacific, Middle-East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The positive impact on flows of a robust recovery in the US will be partially offset by continued weakness in Europe, the impact of lower oil prices on the Russian economy, the strengthening of the US dollar, and tighter immigration controls in many source countries for remittances. Remittance flows are expected to recover in 2016 to reach $479 billion by 2017, in line with the more positive global economic outlook.
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Remittances to developing countries are projected to grow by 5.0 percent to reach US$435 billion in 2014 (accelerating from the 3.4 percent expansion of 2013), and rise further by 4.4 percent to US$454 billion in 2015.
... See More + In 2013, remittances were more than three times larger than ODA and, excluding China, significantly exceeded foreign direct investment flows to developing countries. Growth of remittances in 2014 is being led by three regions: East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean.
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Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached an estimated $401 billion in 2012, growing by 5.3 percent compared with 2011.
... See More + Remittance flows are expected to grow at an average of 8.8 percent annual rate during 2013-2015 to about $515 billion in 2015. Employment conditions in the United States (U.S.), including for migrants are improving, as also reflected in the quota for H-1B visas being rapidly filled for fiscal year 2014. Political momentum behind immigration reform in the US is growing. Average remittance prices were broadly unchanged at just above 9 percent over the last year, while the weighted average dropped in the first quarter of 2013 to an all-time low of 6.9 percent. While this suggests progress in reducing prices in high volume remittance corridors, prices continue to remain high in smaller corridors, affecting countries that have greater dependence on remittances. Migration and remittances are being featured in ongoing discussions on the millennium development goals and the post-2015 agenda.
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Brief 77967 APR 19, 2013
Aga, Gemechu Ayana; Eigen-Zucchi, Christian; Plaza, Sonia; Silwal, Ani RudraDisclosed
The officially recorded remittances to developing countries are expected to reach 406 billion dollar in 2012, up by 6.5 percentage from 381 billion dollar in 2011.
... See More + The true size of remittance flows, including unrecorded flows through formal and informal channels, is believed to be significantly larger. Compared to private capital flows, remittance flows have shown remarkable resilience since the global financial crisis, registering only a modest fall in 2009, followed by a rapid recovery. The size of remittance flows to developing countries is now more than three times that of official development assistance.
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Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to have reached $372 billion in 2011, an increase of 12.1 percent over 2010.
... See More + The growth rate of remittances was higher in 2011 than in 2010 for all regions except Middle East and North Africa, where flows were moderated by the Arab Spring. Remittance flows to developing countries are expected to grow at 7-8 percent annually to reach $467 billion by 2014. Worldwide remittance flows, including those to high-income countries, are expected to reach $615 billion by 2014. Major revisions to our December 2011 estimates include remittance flows to Egypt, India, China, and Thailand.
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Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to have reached $351 billion in 2011, up 8 percent over 2010. For the first time since the global financial crisis, remittance flows to all six developing regions rose in 2011.
... See More + Growth of remittances in 2011 exceeded our earlier expectations in four regions, especially in Europe and Central Asia (due to higher outward flows from Russia that benefited from high oil prices) and Sub-Saharan Africa (due to strong south-south flows and weaker currencies in some countries that attracted larger remittances). By contrast, growth in remittance flows to Latin America and Caribbean was lower than previously expected, due to continuing weakness in the U.S. economy and Spain. Remittance costs have fallen steadily from 8.8 percent in 2008 to 7.3 percent in the third quarter of 2011. However, remittance costs continue to remain high, especially in Africa and in small nations where remittances provide a life line to the poor.
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Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries recovered quickly to $325 billion in 2010 after the global financial crisis. But they have not kept pace with rising prices in recipient countries.
... See More + Remittance flows are expected to grow at lower but more sustainable rates of 7-8 percent annually during 2011-13 to reach $404 billion by 2013. Remittance flows to Latin America are growing again in 2011 because of the stabilization of the U.S. economy. Remittance flows from Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia have been strong due to high oil prices. However, weak job markets in Western Europe are creating pressures to reduce migration. The crisis in the Middle East and North Africa has brought a great deal of uncertainty for migration and remittance flows. These political crises and the recent global financial crisis have highlighted, once again, the need for high-frequency data on migration and remittances.
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Historically post offices have played a role in the provision of remittances and basic financial services to low-income populations. As this function is being revived in an increasing number of developing and emerging countries, remittance services can be improved to better match financial inclusion goals.
... See More + This paper describes the efforts being made in Sub-Saharan Africa to increase access to remittance services through post offices in small towns and rural areas, and discusses how this improved access could be used to develop crucial savings and other financial services for the poor. The outcomes are encouraging, though a number of constraints must be removed to fully realize the potential of posts in this area.
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Preliminary estimates, based on data on bilateral migrant stocks for 2010 and assumptions about migrant incomes, suggest that annual diaspora savings of developing countries could be in the range of $400 billion.
... See More + Diaspora saving as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to be 2.3 percent in middle-income countries and as high as 9 percent in low-income countries.
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Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to increase by 6 percent to $325 billion in 2010. This marks a healthy recovery from a 5.5 percent decline registered in 2009.
... See More + Remittance flows are expected to increase by 6.2 percent in 2011 and 8.1 percent in 2012, to reach $374 billion by 2012. This outlook for remittance flows, however, is subject to the risks of a fragile global economic recovery, volatile currency and commodity price movements, and rising anti-immigration sentiment in many destination countries. From a medium-term view, three major trends are apparent: (a) a high level of unemployment in the migrant-receiving countries has prompted restrictions on new immigration; (b) the application of mobile phone technology for domestic remittances has failed to spread to cross-border remittances; and (c) developing countries are becoming more aware of the potential for leveraging remittances and diaspora wealth for raising development finance.
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Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached $316 billion in 2009, down 6 percent from $336 billion in 2008. With improved prospects for the global economy, remittance flows to developing countries are expected to increase by 6.2 percent in 2010 and 7.1 percent in 2011, a faster pace of recovery in 2010 than our earlier forecasts.
... See More + The decline in remittance flows to Latin America that began with the onset of financial crisis in the United States appears to have bottomed out since the last quarter of 2009. Remittance flows to South Asia (and to a smaller extent East Asia) continued to grow in 2009 although at markedly slower pace than in the pre-crisis years. Flows to Europe and Central Asia and Middle-East and North Africa fell more than expected in 2009. These regional trends reveal that: (a) the more diverse the migration destinations, the more resilient are remittances; (b) the lower the barriers to labor mobility, the stronger the link between remittances and economic cycles in that corridor; and (c) exchange rate movements produce valuation effects, but they also influence the consumption-investment motive for remittances. The resilience of remittances during the financial crisis has highlighted their importance in countries facing external financing gaps. Remittances are now being factored into sovereign ratings in middle-income countries and debt sustainability analysis in low-income countries. Countries are also becoming increasingly aware of the income and wealth of overseas diaspora as potential sources of capital. Some countries are showing interest in financial instruments such as diaspora bonds and securitization of future remittances to raise international capital.
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Newly available data show that officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached $338 billion in 2008, higher than our previous estimate of $328 billion.
... See More + Based on monthly and quarterly data released by some central banks and in line with the World Bank's global economic outlook we estimate that remittance flows to developing countries will fall to $317 billion in 2009. This 6.1 percent decline is smaller than our earlier expectation of a 7.3 percent fall. While new migration flows have fallen, existing migrants are not returning even though the job market has been weak in many destination countries. We maintain our expectation of a recovery in migration and remittance flows in 2010 and 2011, but the recovery is likely to be shallow. In all the regions, remittance flows are likely to face three downside risks: a jobless economic recovery, tighter immigration controls, and unpredictable exchange rate movements. Despite these risks, remittances are expected to remain more resilient than private capital flows and will become even more important as a source of external financing in many developing countries. Policy responses should involve efforts to facilitate migration and remittances, to make these flows cheaper, safer and more productive for both the sending and the receiving countries.
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Newly available data show that remittance flows to developing countries reached $328 billion in 2008, larger than previous estimate of $305 billion.
... See More + Remittances grew rapidly during 2007 and 2008, but have slowed down in many corridors since the last quarter of 2008. In line with a recent downward revision in the World Bank's forecast of global economic growth, also lowered forecasts for remittance flows to developing countries to -7.3 percent in 2009 from the earlier forecast of -5 percent. Flows to Latin America have been falling in a lagged response to the construction sector slowdown in the US, but there are emerging signs of a bottoming out. In contrast, flows to South Asia and East Asia have been strong; but there is risk of a slowdown going forward. The predicted decline in remittances is far smaller than that for private flows to developing countries. The resilience of remittances arises from the fact that while new migration flows have declined, the stock of migrants has been relatively unaffected by the crisis. Sources of risk to this outlook include uncertainty about the depth and duration of the current crisis, unpredictable movements in exchange rates, and the possibility that immigration controls may be tightened further in major destination countries.
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The authors have revised forecasts for remittance flows in the light of a downward revision to the World Bank's global economic outlook. The authors now expect a sharper decline of 5-8 percent in 2009 compared to earlier projections outlined in migration and development brief 8 (report no. 46715).
... See More + This decline in nominal dollar terms is small relative to the projected fall in private capital flows or official aid to developing countries. However, considering that officially recorded remittances registered double-digit annual growth in the past few years to reach an estimated $305 billion in 2008, an outright fall in the level of remittance flows as projected now will cause hardships in many poor countries.
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The outlook for remittances for the rest of 2008 and 2009-10 remains as uncertain as the outlook for global growth, oil and non-oil commodity prices, and currency exchange rates.
... See More + In the past, remittances have been noted to be stable or even counter-cyclical, during an economic downturn in the recipient economy, and resilient in the face of a slowdown in the source country. This time, however, the crisis has affected all countries, creating additional uncertainties.
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This brief provides an overview and lessons on how countries of origin governments can play a major role in protecting their migrants abroad through migrant welfare funds.
... See More + It draws from a study by the Migration Policy Institute, on the Philippine Overseas Workers Welfare Administration (OWWA), a US$172 million government-operated welfare fund that is funded by a mandatory US$25 membership fee for departing Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs). The Philippine experience shows that a welfare fund has to: (1) find the right balance of services; (2) create meaningful partnerships; (3) build accountability with its members; and (4) actively involve destination countries.
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