The Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM) provides an update on key economic developments and policies over a six months period. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy for the outlook for the country.
Lebanon's macro-financial conditions are currently under heavy scrutiny as the country faces increasing challenges. The risk profile for Lebanon is rising sharply in light of the convergence of a number of negative local and global factors, including global monetary conditions.
... See More + Meanwhile, the utility of some of the tools used by the central bank is depleting following years of application. The central bank has responded by beefing up its stock of foreign exchange reserves, lengthening the maturity of deposits and limiting the liquidity available, thereby inhibiting speculation against the Lebanese Pound. In this issue of the Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM), we focus on Lebanon's macrofinancial conditions. We begin by explaining real economy and macro-fiscal features that underpin these conditions. We then present a synopsis on the intertwining monetary and financial sectors, followed by an elucidation on latest macrofinancial dynamics. Naturally, the role and activity of the central bank is given particular attention.
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Lebanon's macro-financial conditions are currently under heavy scrutiny as the country faces increasing challenges. The risk profile for Lebanon is rising sharply in light of the convergence of a number of negative local and global factors, including global monetary conditions.
... See More + Meanwhile, the utility of some of the tools used by the central bank is depleting following years of application. The central bank has responded by beefing up its stock of foreign exchange reserves, lengthening the maturity of deposits and limiting the liquidity available, thereby inhibiting speculation against the Lebanese Pound. In this issue of the Lebanon Economic Monitor (LEM), we focus on Lebanon's macrofinancial conditions. We begin by explaining real economy and macro-fiscal features that underpin these conditions. We then present a synopsis on the intertwining monetary and financial sectors, followed by an elucidation on latest macrofinancial dynamics. Naturally, the role and activity of the central bank is given particular attention.
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The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies overthe past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon.
... See More + It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy tofinancial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. As the political stalemate continues, policy-making bodies of the country are mostly inoperative. This is manifested by a presidential vacancy for two and a half years, a parliament that seldom convenes and a cabinet that hardly finds a consensus to take decisions. Amid fiscal policy paralysis, monetary policy under the proactive Banque du Liban (BdL) continues to actively manage economic and financial challenges facing the country. Economic activity in 2016 is marginally picking up, thanks to the construction and travel sectors in the context of benign security conditions. Real GDP growth is estimated to have reached 1.3 percent in 2015 and is projected to accelerate slightly to 1.8 percent, in 2016, partly on account of a moderate first half of 2016.
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The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon.
... See More + It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Lebanon.
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The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon.
... See More + It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro, Headline inflation plummeted from 2.7 percent in 2013 to 1.9 percent in 2014 and is expected to remain tempered over the medium term. Lebanons economy continues to be exposed to external shocks. The border with Syria is increasingly menacing as coordinated attacks by ISIS and Al Nusra are being launched more frequently from their bases in Syria. Inefficiencies in power generation impose sizable macroeconomic costs on Lebanon. The Lebanese electricity sector has been underperforming for decades with considerable socio-economic costs. The macroeconomic impact has been massive.
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A new domestic political stalemate has developed while spillovers from the Syrian conflict further exacerbated. A mid-year lull in the security situation gave a temporary boost to consumer and investor sentiment.
... See More + Lebanon’s current account deficit remains elevated, albeit lower than during the pre-crisis period. Lebanon’s fiscal position continues to deteriorate. Banque du Liban maintained an expansionary monetary stance to support the economy, while sustaining confidence in the Lebanese pound. Conservatism in financial regulations and private sector banking helped maintain a well-capitalized and resilient domestic banking sector, despite sluggish growth and downgrades by international rating agencies. The expanding political stalemate at home and regional spillovers pose significant downside risk to growth. The Lebanon economic monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon.
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The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon.
... See More + It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. This report discusses the following: a) Spillovers from the Syrian conflict are imposing a heavy toll on Lebanon’s economy which, under an unchanged environment, is projected to grow by 1.5 percent in both 2013 and 2014. b) The economic slowdown and domestic and regional turmoil also affected banking activity. c) After a strong fiscal expansion in 2012, the fiscal deficit continues to widen in 2013, to a large extent driven by the spillovers from the Syrian conflict. d) The balance of payments strengthened during the first seven months of 2013, in part due to the weakening economic activity and sustained capital inflows. e) The conflict in Syria is having a large, negative, and rapidly growing impact on Lebanon’s economy, its social fabric, and its public services (Special Focus).
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The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon.
... See More + The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to continue doing so through the first half of 2013. Economic growth in 2012 is estimated to have decelerated to 1.4 percent due to a weak second half of 2012 following a downturn in the security situation. The major fiscal expansion that took place in 2012 is creating fiscal challenges for 2013, particularly in the context of a promised increase in public salaries. The fiscal expansion, measured by the change in the central governments primary fiscal balance, reached a staggering 4.6 percentage points of GDP in 2012. The overall fiscal deficit reached 9.4 percent of GDP in 2012. Inflationary pressures rose despite tepid economic activity. Headline inflation accelerated notably in the second half of 2012. Core inflation has also been on an upward trend, reaching 5.3 percent by end-2012. Domestically, inflationary pressures can primarily be attributed to (i) increases in disposable income in early 2012 due to the increase in the minimum wage and public sector salaries cost of living adjustment; and (ii) a cumulative output gap that remains positive following above-potential growth in 2007-2010. The conflict in Syria, a country that is closely linked, both through historical, social and economic ties to Lebanon has created a humanitarian crisis of enormous scale. While Lebanon is to be commended for its openness to Syrian refugees, the conflict is severely and negatively impacting the Lebanese economy. The largest impact arises through the insecurity and uncertainty spillovers and touches at the heart of Lebanons societal fabric.
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